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Operator
Operator
Good morning, ladies and gentlemen. Welcome to the BRP Inc.'s FY26 second-quarter results conference call. (Operator Instructions). I would now like to turn the meeting over to Mr. Philippe Deschenes. Please go ahead, Mr. Deschenes.
女士們、先生們,早安。歡迎參加 BRP Inc. 26 財年第二季業績電話會議。(操作員指令)。現在我想將會議交給菲利普·德斯切納先生。請繼續,德斯切內斯先生。
Philippe Deschenes - Director-Investor Relations
Philippe Deschenes - Director-Investor Relations
Thank you, Joel. Good morning, and welcome to BRP's current call for the second quarter of fiscal year 2026. Joining me this morning are Jose Boisjoli, President and Chief Executive Officer; and Sebastien Martel, Chief Financial Officer.
謝謝你,喬爾。早安,歡迎參加 BRP 2026 財年第二季的電話會議。今天早上與我一起出席的還有總裁兼執行長 Jose Boisjoli 和財務長 Sebastien Martel。
Before we move to the prepared remarks, I would like to remind everyone that certain forward-looking statements will be made during the call and that the actual results could differ from those implied in these statements. The forward-looking information is based on certain assumptions and is subject to risks and uncertainties, and I invite you to consult BRP's MD&A for a complete list of this. Also during the call, reference will be made to supporting slides, and you can find the presentation on our website at brp.com under the Investor Relations section.
在我們進入準備好的發言之前,我想提醒大家,電話會議期間將會做出某些前瞻性的陳述,實際結果可能與這些陳述中暗示的結果不同。前瞻性資訊是基於某些假設,並受風險和不確定性的影響,我邀請您查閱 BRP 的 MD&A 以獲取完整的清單。此外,在通話過程中,也會參考支援幻燈片,您可以在我們網站 brp.com 的「投資者關係」部分找到該簡報。
So with that, I'll turn the call over to Jose.
因此,我將把電話轉給何塞。
Jose Boisjoli - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer
Jose Boisjoli - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer
Thank you, Philippe. Good morning, everyone, and thank you for joining us. We've delivered better-than-expected results in our second quarter in an operating environment that remained challenging.
謝謝你,菲利普。大家早安,感謝大家的收看。儘管經營環境依然充滿挑戰,我們在第二季取得了好於預期的業績。
At retail in North America, we have gained further market share with our current Can-Am models, but as expected, with lost market share in the noncurrent due to our low inventory. With a 20% year-over-year reduction in network inventory, we have reached proper level across all our product lines, except snowmobile. From this healthier base, -- we are well positioned to benefit from our newly introduced product to gain additional market share. During the quarter, we also announced a definitive agreement for the sale of Manitou which is expected to close in the coming weeks.
在北美零售市場,我們現有的 Can-Am 車型進一步獲得了市場份額,但正如預期,由於庫存低,我們在非現有車型上的市佔率有所損失。隨著網路庫存年減 20%,我們除雪地摩托車外的所有產品線都已達到適當水準。從這個更健康的基礎上,我們完全有能力從新推出的產品中獲益,從而獲得更多的市場份額。本季度,我們還宣布了出售 Manitou 的最終協議,預計將在未來幾週內完成。
Now let's turn to slide 4 for key financial highlights. We ended the quarter with revenue of $1.9 billion, normalized EBITDA of $213 million, normalized EPS of $0.92 and solid free cash flow of almost $100 million. We are pleased with our results considering that Q2 is usually a transition quarter as we start introducing product for a new model year.
現在讓我們翻到幻燈片 4 來了解主要的財務亮點。本季結束時,我們的營收為 19 億美元,標準化 EBITDA 為 2.13 億美元,標準化 EPS 為 0.92 美元,穩定自由現金流接近 1 億美元。考慮到第二季度通常是我們開始推出新車型的過渡季度,我們對我們的業績感到滿意。
Looking at slide 5. Our North American Powersport retail decreased 11%. We Canada continued to perform better than the US with a 4% growth, driven by ORV as Can-Am side-by-side had a record quarter. This growth was offset by a 15% decline in the US.
看投影片 5。我們的北美動力運動零售額下降了 11%。加拿大的表現繼續好於美國,成長了 4%,這得益於 ORV 的推動,因為 Can-Am 並排車型創下了季度銷量記錄。這一增長被美國 15% 的下降所抵消。
In international market, Latin America continued to stand out through rapid and sustained growth. Retail was up 22%, led by a solid performance in ORV.
國際市場方面,拉丁美洲地區持續保持快速、持續成長的良好動能。零售業上漲 22%,主要得益於 ORV 的強勁表現。
In Asia Pacific, our retail grew 5%, representing a first increase in about two years, fueled by momentum in China. Meanwhile, demand remained generally soft in EMEA, with retail down 13%, in line with the industry. Overall, we are encouraged to see that global industry trend has slightly improved from previous quarters.
在亞太地區,受中國市場強勁成長的推動,我們的零售額成長了 5%,這是大約兩年來的首次成長。同時,歐洲、中東和非洲地區的需求整體依然疲軟,零售額下降 13%,與產業水準一致。總體而言,我們很高興地看到全球行業趨勢比前幾季略有改善。
Turning to slide 6 for a look at our retail performance by product line in North America. Our part sport retail declined 11%. As in previous quarter, Can-Am ORV market share was affected by a leaner level of noncurrent unit and high promotional activity by other OEM. In three-wheel vehicle, personal watercraft and Switch pontoon, retail was weak early in the quarter due to soft trends and unfavorable weather, but conditions improved in July and early August.
翻到投影片 6,看看我們在北美按產品線劃分的零售業績。我們的部分體育零售額下降了11%。與上一季一樣,Can-Am ORV 市佔率受到非現有車輛數量減少以及其他 OEM 大力促銷活動的影響。在三輪車、個人水上摩托車和 Switch 浮橋方面,由於趨勢疲軟和天氣不利,本季初零售疲軟,但 7 月和 8 月初情況有所好轉。
Turning to slide 7 for highlights from Club BRP held in Boston earlier this month. The event was a success with close to 4,100 participants in person and virtual. We introduced several new models and upgrade across our lineup, including many industry first. Once again, we stayed true to our commitment of pushing technology and innovation to wow consumers.
翻到幻燈片 7,了解本月早些時候在波士頓舉行的 Club BRP 的精彩內容。這項活動取得了成功,共有近 4,100 名現場和虛擬參與者。我們推出了多款新車型並升級了我們的產品線,其中包括許多業界首創的車型。我們再次堅守承諾,推動科技與創新,讓消費者驚嘆。
The highlight was the launch of the new generation of the Can-Am Defender. This vehicle received a ground-up overhaul further solidifying its position as the most capable, versatile and reliable utility side-by-side on the market. The new Defender remain best-in-class in terms of technology sowing and cargo capacity while also offering riders the largest cab in its category.
亮點是新一代 Can-Am Defender 的發布。該車經過徹底改造,進一步鞏固了其作為市場上功能最強大、用途最廣泛、最可靠的多功能並排車的地位。新款 Defender 在技術配置和載貨能力方面依然保持同級最佳水平,同時也為乘客提供了同級別中最大的駕駛室。
The Defender was already the best product out there even with its original 10-year-old platform. Now with this new generation outfitted with the most advanced technology, we are setting an entirely new standard in the industry. We are in excellent position to continue gaining further market share in that segment that represent over two-third of the side-by-side industry.
即使採用已有 10 年歷史的原始平台,Defender 已經是最好的產品了。現在,新一代產品配備了最先進的技術,我們正在為業界樹立全新的標準。我們處於有利地位,可以繼續在該領域獲得更多的市場份額,該領域佔據了並排式車輛行業的三分之二以上。
Reaction to the new Defender were extremely positive. Dealer sentiment for the product was very good, while media who had a chance to test it, were impressed and issued very positive reviews. I encourage you to read them. But that's not all. Let's turn to slide 8 to look at some of other product news.
人們對新款 Defender 的反應非常正面。經銷商對該產品的評價非常好,而有機會測試該產品的媒體也留下了深刻的印象並給出了非常積極的評價。我鼓勵你閱讀它們。但這還不是全部。讓我們翻到第 8 張投影片來看其他一些產品新聞。
We expanded our electric vehicle offering by launching the Outlander electric, featuring industry-leading towing capacity impressive of performance in a very quiet riding experience. It uses our ePower unit, which also propel our electric monocycle and snowmobiles. This is another demonstration of how we leverage our modular design approach, to optimize development across many product lines.
我們擴大了電動車產品線,推出了歐藍德電動車,其具有業界領先的牽引能力和令人印象深刻的性能,同時也能提供非常安靜的駕駛體驗。它使用我們的 ePower 裝置,該裝置還可以驅動我們的電動單輪車和雪地摩托車。這再次證明了我們如何利用模組化設計方法來優化多條產品線的開發。
In addition, we further surprised our dealers by introducing multiple model upgrade enhancement. We've launched the Outlander MAX 66 designed to be the hardest working ATV in the lineup under extreme conditions. We added rock crawling capabilities to the Maverick lineup with the XRC package and updated our Maverick X3.
此外,我們也推出多項車型升級增強功能,進一步帶給經銷商驚喜。我們推出了 Outlander MAX 66,旨在成為極端條件下該系列中最耐用的 ATV。我們透過 XRC 套件為 Maverick 系列添加了攀岩功能,並更新了我們的 Maverick X3。
In three-wheel, we continue the evolution of our lineup with new modern coloration. As for Sea Doo, we introduced new connectivity features and improvement to the entire lineup. We also ramped up the Switch pontoon experience with a highly anticipated 300-horsepower engine on some models. We have also announced the repricing of some underperforming model, which was very well received by our dealers. As you see, we are the OEM who introduced the most product news for model year '26.
在三輪車方面,我們繼續以新的現代色彩來發展我們的產品線。至於 Sea Doo,我們引入了新的連接功能並對整個產品線進行了改進。我們還在某些型號上配備了備受期待的 300 馬力發動機,增強了 Switch 浮橋的體驗。我們也宣布對一些表現不佳的車型進行重新定價,這受到了經銷商的一致好評。如您所見,我們是推出 26 款車型最多產品新聞的 OEM。
Now let's turn to slide 9 for a more detailed look at year-round product. Revenue were up 13% to $1.1 billion, driven by higher ORV shipments following last year's inventory reduction plan. At retail, side-by-side was down mid-single digits. We underperformed due to high level of discounting on noncurrent unit by other OEMs. We continue to outperform in (inaudible), ending the 25 season with more than 3 points of market share gains, driven by our MavericR-MAX. In ETV, retail was down low single digit in the quarter, in line with the industry. That said, we gained over 3 points of market share in current unit for the season fueled by our new Outlander platform. As for Tree wheel, retail was down mid-20% as entry-level consumers are struggling to get approved for financing.
現在讓我們翻到第 9 張投影片來更詳細地了解全年產品。受去年庫存削減計畫實施後 ORV 出貨量增加的推動,營收成長 13%,達到 11 億美元。在零售方面,並排式銷售量下降了中等個位數。由於其他 OEM 對非流動單位的折扣幅度較大,我們的表現不佳。我們繼續在(聽不清楚)中表現出色,在 MavericR-MAX 的推動下,以超過 3 個百分點的市佔率成長結束了第 25 個賽季。在 ETV 方面,本季零售額下降了個位數,與行業表現一致。也就是說,由於我們新的 Outlander 平台,我們在本賽季的現有單位的市佔率增加了 3 個百分點。至於 Tree Wheel,由於入門級消費者難以獲得融資批准,零售額下降了 20% 左右。
A few words on our electric motorcycle. The ramp-up of our retail sales is not as expected in the context of a slowdown in global EV adoption. However, it's still early. We are proud to have set the bar high and put our electric motorcycle at the forefront. The excitement around this new EV has been felt in North America and Europe as a result of our efforts to generate media and consumer awareness.
關於我們的電動摩托車的幾句話。在全球電動車普及率放緩的背景下,我們的零售額成長並不如預期。不過,現在還為時過早。我們很自豪能夠設定高標準並將我們的電動摩托車推向前沿。由於我們努力提高媒體和消費者的認知度,北美和歐洲已經感受到了這款新型電動車的興奮。
In addition, to further build the demand and drive traffic in dealerships, we have announced price reduction in response to market feedback. We aim to leverage our past investment to grow this industry, make our motorcycle accessible to more riders and position ourselves as leaders.
此外,為了進一步擴大需求並推動經銷店的客流量,我們根據市場回饋宣布降價。我們的目標是利用過去的投資來發展這個產業,讓更多的騎士能夠騎上我們的摩托車,並將自己定位為領導者。
Turning to seasonal product on slide 10. Revenue were down 13% to $417 million, mainly due to a planned reduction of personal watercraft shipment. Our inventory is trending in line with pre-COVID level, which is creating a more favorable environment for the arrival of our model year '26.
前往投影片 10 上的季節性產品。收入下降 13% 至 4.17 億美元,主要原因是計劃減少個人水上摩托車的出貨量。我們的庫存趨勢與新冠疫情之前的水平一致,這為我們的 26 款車型的到來創造了更有利的環境。
Looking at retail, trend remained weak for marine product in North America. Personal craft sales were down mid-teen percent, slightly lagging the industry. Switch pontoon retail was down mid-20% as the industry is still going to a correction period. Sea Doo had a better performance in international market, which sales holding steady in Asia Pacific and growing low single digit in Latin America.
從零售來看,北美海鮮的趨勢依然疲軟。個人手工藝品銷售額下降了百分之十幾,略微落後於行業水平。由於產業仍處於調整期,Switch 浮橋零售下跌了 20% 左右。Sea Doo在國際市場表現較好,亞太地區銷售量維持穩定,拉丁美洲則呈現低個位數成長。
Moving to slide 11 with part, accessories and apparel and OEM engine. Revenue were up 7% to $305 million as dealers replenish their parts and accessories inventories. Finally, we continue to bring new parts and accessory through our LINK system for customization, which would further stimulate this business.
移至投影片 11,其中顯示零件、配件、服裝和 OEM 引擎。由於經銷商補充零件和配件庫存,營收成長 7%,達到 3.05 億美元。最後,我們繼續透過我們的 LINK 系統帶來新的零件和配件進行客製化,這將進一步刺激這項業務。
With that, I turn the call over to Sebastien.
說完,我把電話轉給了賽巴斯蒂安。
Sebastien Martel - Chief Financial Officer
Sebastien Martel - Chief Financial Officer
Thank you, Jose, and good morning, everyone. Once again, our team did an exceptional job navigating a dynamic and volatile environment. We remain focused on our plan, continuing to be disciplined in managing shipments to further improve our network inventory position, while maintaining a strong emphasis on operational efficiency. As a result, we closed the second quarter with a financial performance of free cash flow generation and a network inventory position, all ahead of our expectations, positioning us well as we enter the second half of the year.
謝謝你,何塞,大家早安。我們的團隊再次出色地應對了動態和動盪的環境。我們將繼續專注於我們的計劃,繼續嚴格管理貨運,以進一步改善我們的網路庫存狀況,同時高度重視營運效率。因此,我們在第二季結束時的財務表現、自由現金流產生和網路庫存狀況都超出了我們的預期,為我們進入下半年做好了準備。
Now looking at the numbers. Revenues were up 4% to $1.9 billion, primarily driven by stronger ORV shipments and offset by lower PWC deliveries. Gross profit came in at $398 million, representing a margin of 21.1%, down year-over-year, mainly due to lower capacity utilization and unfavorable product mix and the impact of tariffs. These headwinds were partly offset by cost inefficiencies in our manufacturing operations, favorable pricing and lower floor plan costs resulting from our leaner network inventory.
現在看看數字。營收成長 4% 至 19 億美元,主要得益於 ORV 出貨量增加,但被 PWC 交付量下降所抵銷。毛利為 3.98 億美元,利潤率為 21.1%,年比下降,主要原因是產能利用率下降、產品組合不利以及關稅的影響。這些不利因素被我們製造業務中的成本效率低下、優惠的定價以及精簡的網路庫存帶來的較低的平面圖成本部分抵消。
Normalized EBITDA ended at $213 million and our normalized earnings per share at $0.92, which includes roughly $0.35 coming from tax credits recorded in the quarter. Free cash flow from continuing operations reached $100 million, and we ended the quarter with over $270 million in cash, maintaining a solid balance sheet and strong financial flexibility.
標準化 EBITDA 最終為 2.13 億美元,標準化每股收益為 0.92 美元,其中包括本季記錄的稅收抵免約 0.35 美元。持續經營產生的自由現金流達到 1 億美元,本季末我們擁有超過 2.7 億美元的現金,維持了穩健的資產負債表和強大的財務靈活性。
Turning to slide 14 for an update on the network inventory. As mentioned last quarter, our plan was to further rightsize our network inventory in Q2, and we delivered on that objective. In fact, our dealers' inventory ended the quarter down 20% year-over-year and 13% sequentially from Q1.
翻到投影片 14 查看網路庫存的最新情況。正如上個季度所提到的,我們的計劃是在第二季度進一步調整我們的網路庫存,並且我們實現了這一目標。事實上,我們經銷商的庫存在本季同比下降了 20%,環比第一季下降了 13%。
All product lines for which we had inventory in the network last year, saw double-digit declines compared to the prior year. Also, to put things in perspective, on a comparable product line basis, our dealers' inventory is down 1% versus pre-Covid levels. including a 5% decline in ORV, even as our ORV retail is up about 50% over the same period.
去年,我們網路中有庫存的所有產品線與前一年相比都出現了兩位數的下降。此外,從可比較產品線的角度來看,我們的經銷商庫存比疫情前的水平下降了 1%,其中 ORV 下降了 5%,而同期我們的 ORV 零售額增長了約 50%。
With these leaner inventory levels, our dealers credit line usage ended the quarter at just above 60%. This is an excellent position to be in as it not only reduces floor plan financing costs for both us and our dealers, but it also provides significant capacity for dealers to take on new products, particularly with the introduction of the all-new Can-Am Defender, which addresses the largest segment in the side-by-side industry and is a key driver of dealer profitability.
由於庫存水準較低,我們經銷商的信用額度使用率在本季末略高於 60%。這是一個非常好的局面,因為它不僅降低了我們和經銷商的平面圖融資成本,而且還為經銷商提供了推出新產品的巨大能力,特別是隨著全新 Can-Am Defender 的推出,它佔據了並排式卡車行業最大的市場份額,是經銷商盈利能力的關鍵驅動力。
Looking ahead, aside from snowmobiles, where some work remains the rightsizing of our network inventory is largely complete. This positions us to better align our wholesale with retail as we move into the second half of the year. More importantly, these leaner inventory levels help protect the value of our brand, strengthen the dealers' financial health and enhance the competitiveness by enabling the rapid distribution of new products across the network, and by ensuring that we are best positioned to capture demand upside when market conditions improve.
展望未來,除了雪地摩托車之外,我們的網路庫存的調整工作已基本完成。這使得我們在進入下半年時能夠更好地協調批發和零售業務。更重要的是,這些更精簡的庫存水準有助於保護我們品牌的價值,增強經銷商的財務健康,並透過實現新產品在網路中的快速分銷來增強競爭力,並確保我們在市場條件改善時處於最佳位置來抓住需求上升空間。
With this, let's turn to slide 15 for an update on fiscal '26. We are pleased with our execution so far this year. Quarterly results came in ahead of expectations, network inventory levels have been diligently reduced, and we continue to drive efficiency gains across the organization. Combined with the significant innovations we have introduced to the market, these achievements position us well for a strong second half.
現在,讓我們翻到第 15 張投影片來了解 26 財年的最新情況。我們對今年迄今的執行感到滿意。季度業績超出預期,網路庫存水準已努力降低,我們持續推動整個組織的效率提升。結合我們向市場推出的重大創新,這些成就為我們在下半年的強勁表現奠定了基礎。
While the macroeconomic environment remains uncertain, and the industry dynamics continue to be volatile, we now have better visibility on expected deliveries for the remainder of the year versus what we had in previous quarters, given that the rightsizing of our network inventory is mostly complete, and these leaner levels provide us with more flexibility in managing our shipments based on retail trends. We have snowmobile orders on hand following our spring booking and we will be fueling the initial demand of our new introduced products with the receptions from the dealers was very positive.
儘管宏觀經濟環境仍然不確定,行業動態持續波動,但鑑於我們的網路庫存調整工作已基本完成,我們現在對今年剩餘時間的預期交付量比前幾季度有了更好的了解,而且這些更精簡的水平為我們根據零售趨勢管理發貨量提供了更大的靈活性。繼春季預訂之後,我們手頭上還有雪地摩托車訂單,由於經銷商的反應非常積極,我們將推動新推出產品的初始需求。
These factors give us the confidence in our volume outlook for H2. And consequently, we are comfortable issuing a guidance at this time. Obviously, this assumes that the tariff situation remains as is for the rest of the year. Note that based on the information we have today, we have factored in our guidance about $90 million of gross tariff impact. This is up from the previous estimate of $60 million to $70 million, reflecting the increase in steel and aluminum tariffs to 50%. New tariffs on copper and the expansion of steel and aluminum tariffs to additional products, including some of our vehicles.
這些因素使我們對下半年的銷售前景充滿信心。因此,我們很樂意在此時發布指導。顯然,這是假設今年剩餘時間的關稅情況保持不變。請注意,根據我們今天掌握的信息,我們已將約 9000 萬美元的總關稅影響納入我們的指導範圍。這一數字高於先前估計的 6,000 萬至 7,000 萬美元,反映了鋼鐵和鋁關稅上漲至 50% 的情況。對銅徵收新關稅,並將鋼鐵和鋁關稅擴大到其他產品,包括我們的一些車輛。
All in all, our guidance calls for revenues of $8.15 billion to $8.3 billion, normalized EBITDA of $1.04 billion to $1.09 billion and normalized EPS of $4.25 million to $4.75 million. More importantly, it calls for solid growth across the board in the second half as highlighted on slide 16.
總而言之,我們的預期是營收為 81.5 億美元至 83 億美元,正常化 EBITDA 為 10.4 億美元至 10.9 億美元,正常化 EPS 為 425 萬美元至 475 萬美元。更重要的是,正如幻燈片 16 所強調的那樣,它要求下半年全面實現穩健成長。
From a top line perspective, our guidance implies growth of 8% to 12% in the second half, driven by the elements I previously mentioned. Benefiting from the stronger revenues and the ongoing focus on operational efficiency, we expect to be able to more than offset the impact of higher sales program, tariff costs and the return on variable compensation to deliver significantly improved profitability.
從營收角度來看,受我之前提到的因素推動,我們的預期意味著下半年的成長率將達到 8% 至 12%。受益於更強勁的收入和對營運效率的持續關注,我們預計能夠抵消更高的銷售計劃、關稅成本和浮動薪酬回報的影響,從而顯著提高盈利能力。
In fact, our guidance calls for H2 normalized EBITDA to be up between 22% and 31% over last year, resulting in a normalized EBITDA margin in excess of 14%, well above H1 levels. And this all results in normalized EPS that is expected to grow between 28% and 51%. From a cadence perspective, given the lower shipments planned for snowmobiles and the lower RV shipments in August ahead of the new product launches, Q3 normalized EPS is expected to be roughly stable versus last year with the bulk of the H2 growth coming in Q4.
事實上,我們的預期是,下半年標準化 EBITDA 將比去年同期成長 22% 至 31%,使標準化 EBITDA 利潤率超過 14%,遠高於上半年的水平。這一切將導致正常化每股收益預計將成長 28% 至 51%。從節奏角度來看,考慮到雪地摩托車的計劃出貨量較低,以及新產品發布前 8 月份房車出貨量較低,預計第三季度標準化每股收益將與去年大致保持穩定,而下半年的大部分增長將出現在第四季度。
On that, I will turn the call over to Jose.
關於這一點,我將把電話轉給何塞。
Jose Boisjoli - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer
Jose Boisjoli - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer
Thank you, Sebastien. I am proud of our accomplishments so far this year. Despite macroeconomic environment, we've delivered results ahead of expectations through solid execution and operational excellence. The timing of our model year '26 launches could not be better. We are the OEM with the most product news, which we are bringing to market as our network inventory is healthy and dealer sentiment is improving.
謝謝你,賽巴斯蒂安。我對我們今年迄今所取得的成就感到自豪。儘管宏觀經濟環境如此,我們仍然透過穩健的執行和卓越的營運取得了超乎預期的業績。我們推出 26 年車型的時機再好不過了。我們是擁有最多產品新聞的 OEM,由於我們的網路庫存健康且經銷商情緒正在改善,我們將把這些產品新聞推向市場。
When I was in Boston for Club BRP, I felt a significant upswing versus last year. Many dealers appreciated that we were the OEM who supported them the most from day one during this challenging time. Since we are starting to see the benefit of our action and despite ongoing volatility, we are comfortable showing guidance. We are confident that the momentum generated by our new product introduction will allow us to deliver a stronger second half of the year.
當我在波士頓參加 Club BRP 時,我感覺到與去年相比有了明顯的上升。許多經銷商都對我們表示感謝,因為我們是在這個充滿挑戰的時期從第一天起就給予他們最大支持的原始設備製造商。由於我們開始看到我們行動的好處,儘管持續存在波動,但我們仍樂於提供指導。我們相信,新產品推出所產生的動能將使我們在下半年取得更強勁的業績。
With the most complete product offering, strong brands and a solid data network, we are uniquely positioned to come out on top when the industry fully recover. As I said many times in the past, our goal is to consistently wow consumers with market-shaping product over the long term. We remain committed to pushing technology and innovation to capitalize on market opportunities and sustain profitable growth.
憑藉最齊全的產品、強大的品牌和穩固的數據網絡,我們擁有獨特的優勢,能夠在業界全面復甦時脫穎而出。正如我過去多次說過的,我們的目標是長期不斷地用塑造市場的產品讓消費者驚嘆。我們將繼續致力於推動技術和創新,以利用市場機會並保持獲利成長。
On that note, I turn the call over to the operator for questions.
就此而言,我將電話轉給接線員以回答問題。
Operator
Operator
(Operator Instructions)
(操作員指示)
Craig Kennison, Baird.
克雷格·肯尼森,貝爾德。
Craig Kennison - Analyst
Craig Kennison - Analyst
For the updated guidance, I wanted to ask about trade policy -- what are the tariff scenarios that you're contemplating? I know we have USMCA that is subject to renegotiation and Mexico has suggested plans to raise tariffs on Asian imports. So I think you're well positioned for the current landscape, but what are the scenarios you're thinking about down the road?
對於更新後的指南,我想問一下貿易政策——您正在考慮哪些關稅方案?我知道我們有需要重新談判的《美國-墨西哥-加拿大協定》,墨西哥已經提出提高亞洲進口產品關稅的計畫。所以我認為您已經為當前的情況做好了準備,但是您對未來的情況有何打算?
Jose Boisjoli - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer
Jose Boisjoli - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer
Yes, obviously, over the years, and you know that we optimized our manufacturing footprint and our supply chain and all our product made in Canada and Mexico meet the USMCA. Today, about two-third of our content come from North America. I won't give you the detail between Canada, US and Mexico for competitive reasons. But two-third of our content come from North America.
是的,顯然,多年來,您知道我們優化了我們的製造足跡和供應鏈,我們在加拿大和墨西哥生產的所有產品都符合 USMCA。如今,我們約三分之二的內容來自北美。出於競爭原因,我不會向您提供加拿大、美國和墨西哥之間的詳細資訊。但我們三分之二的內容來自北美。
Obviously, we are in constant dialogue with Canadian and Mexican government and authorities to try to follow very closely what's going on. And I believe that beyond BRP, the USMC agreement is critical for North American company to be able to compete worldwide. Then to be honest, we're not we are not working right now on any scenarios.
顯然,我們一直在與加拿大和墨西哥政府及當局進行對話,以密切關注事態發展。我相信,除了 BRP 之外,美國海軍陸戰隊協議對於北美公司在全球範圍內的競爭也至關重要。那麼說實話,我們現在還沒有針對任何場景開展工作。
Like I said many times, we always found ways to adapt to any regulation if they -- if the norm or the new USMC rules are clear, and we have lead time, I'm very confident we will add to any situation. But we're following that closely, and we're ready to fire up when we know better.
就像我多次說過的那樣,如果規範或新的美國海軍陸戰隊規則明確,並且我們有準備時間,我們總能找到適應任何規定的方法,我非常有信心我們會適應任何情況。但我們正在密切關注這一點,當我們了解更多時,我們準備採取行動。
Craig Kennison - Analyst
Craig Kennison - Analyst
And could you shed any light on your plans to mitigate the tariff exposure you forecast in your guidance?
您能否透露一下您在指導中預測的減輕關稅風險的計劃?
Jose Boisjoli - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer
Jose Boisjoli - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer
Again, the $90 million is the growth. And basically, it's sourcing. We move depending of the regulation and where the goods are coming, sometimes we move the production or the supplier from one country to the other. I saw some idea from our team where supplier we're doing and assembly from a part coming from Asia, and now we're doing it ourselves in our factory, then there is many, many things that we do to be able to minimize the impact of those tariffs. And to be honest, I'm impressed how fast we react and how good we are, but we're learning every day.
再次強調,9000 萬美元是成長。基本上,這就是採購。我們根據法規和貨物的來源地進行運輸,有時我們將生產或供應商從一個國家轉移到另一個國家。我從我們的團隊中看到了一些想法,我們利用來自亞洲的供應商進行零件的組裝,現在我們在自己的工廠裡自己進行組裝,然後我們做了很多事情來盡量減少這些關稅的影響。說實話,我們的反應速度之快、水平之高令我印象深刻,但我們每天都在學習。
Operator
Operator
James Hardiman, Citi.
花旗銀行的詹姆斯哈迪曼。
James Hardiman - Analyst
James Hardiman - Analyst
So would love to sort of have a conversation about the current versus noncurrent setup in the industry right now. Obviously, that was worth calling out, right, that your overall retail, particularly in ORV was down. But if we split it up into current versus noncurrent tells a very different story.
因此,我很想就目前行業中的當前和非當前設定進行討論。顯然,值得一提的是,您的整體零售額,尤其是 ORV 零售額有所下降。但如果我們將其分為當前和非當前,就會得出截然不同的結論。
I guess, as we roll that forward, what does that look like in the third quarter? And I think a lot of the answer comes down to when we think your peers will -- if they haven't already worked down their noncurrent and ultimately, sort of ease up from a promotional perspective. But curious how you see sort of your retail rolling forward in that context.
我想,隨著我們繼續推進,第三季的情況會是如何?我認為,很多答案都歸結於我們認為你的同事何時會這樣做——如果他們還沒有解決他們的非當前問題,並最終從晉升的角度放鬆下來。但令人好奇的是,您如何看待在這種背景下零售業的發展。
Jose Boisjoli - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer
Jose Boisjoli - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer
Then obviously, we are in the quarter. Q2 is a quarter where many OEM transitioned from model year '25 to '26, then there is some estimation in our forecast. But Basically, we saw in Q2 that most of the OEMs are more cautious versus shipment and we saw inventory, in our case, we are happy where we are versus except snow mobile that we intend to deplete in the upcoming season, but we saw positive signs like in the ORV.
那麼顯然,我們正處於這個季度。第二季度是許多 OEM 從 25 年車型過渡到 26 年車型的季度,因此我們的預測中有一些估計。但基本上,我們在第二季度看到,大多數 OEM 對出貨量更加謹慎,我們看到庫存,就我們的情況而言,我們對目前的狀況感到滿意,除了雪地摩托車,我們打算在即將到來的季節耗盡,但我們看到了像 ORV 這樣的積極跡象。
The ATV inventory was down by 20% in Q2, side-by-side 10%, the industry, not us. Watercraft is a bit on the high side, one OEM have shipped quite a lot of '25 late into the season. But overall, the noncurrent versus current inventory ratio has improved over the quarters. Then this is our situation why we are encouraged for H2, and we are comfortable to issue the guidance is we have a good visibility on what we will be shipping and also we see that we are in a position where our inventory is low.
ATV庫存在第二季度下降了20%,同期下降了10%,這是行業的下降,而不是我們的下降。船隻價格有點高,一家 OEM 在季末已經運送了相當多的 25 艘船。但總體而言,非流動庫存與流動庫存的比率在各個季度都有所改善。那麼這就是我們為什麼對下半年充滿信心的原因,我們很樂意發布指導,因為我們對將要運送的貨物有很好的了解,而且我們也看到我們的庫存處於較低水平。
We have very good product news. The reception of the dealers were very upbeat at Club, and we were the first one, like I said in my script, to take the bullet and support them in the last 15 months. And now it's time that we take advantage of this. Then that is why we are in a unique situation, and we're comfortable and we believe we can grow market share in the H2, and we're comfortable with our guidance.
我們有非常好的產品新聞。經銷商在俱樂部受到了非常積極的接待,正如我在腳本中所說的那樣,我們是過去 15 個月中第一個承擔責任並支持他們的人。現在是我們利用這一點的時候了。這就是為什麼我們處於獨特的境地,我們感到很安心,我們相信我們可以在下半年擴大市場份額,我們對我們的指導感到滿意。
James Hardiman - Analyst
James Hardiman - Analyst
Got it. And just to clarify, it sounds like you're saying you think retail is going to be up in the second half, maybe just confirm or deny that. And then just early thoughts on 2026. Obviously, as I think about puts and takes, there was some inventory drawdown this year, assuming we're back to sort of 1:1 retail, what does that get you?
知道了。需要澄清的是,聽起來您是在說您認為零售業將在下半年上漲,也許只是證實或否認這一點。然後是我對 2026 年的一些初步想法。顯然,當我考慮賣出和賣出時,今年庫存有所減少,假設我們回到 1:1 零售,這會為你帶來什麼?
And then the tariff piece, right? I think you've said in the past that we shouldn't think about next year being double this year. But with the new $90 million number, any sort of initial thoughts on what that might look like for '26?
然後是關稅部分,對嗎?我想您以前曾說過,我們不應該想著明年的數字是今年的兩倍。但是,隨著新的 9000 萬美元數字的出現,您對 26 年的業績有何初步看法?
Jose Boisjoli - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer
Jose Boisjoli - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer
I will give you color on our forecast for the industry in H2 and Sebastien will talk about fiscal year '26. Then obviously, there is a lot of volatility in the macroeconomic, but basically, planning for the industry at similar to Q2. And just to give you a sense by key countries, US was down mid-single digit in Q2.
我將向您介紹我們對下半年行業的預測,而塞巴斯蒂安將談論 26 財年。顯然,宏觀經濟存在很大的波動,但基本上,產業規劃與第二季類似。僅讓您了解主要國家的情況,美國在第二季度下降了中等個位數。
Obviously, we believe tariff uncertainty and the inflation still affect consumer confidence. Canada have done well with low -- up low single digit. I'm talking the industry. LatAm is doing very strong with over 20% growth in Q2 and drive by the ORV momentum in Brazil and Mexico, and we believe this will continue.
顯然,我們認為關稅不確定性和通貨膨脹仍然影響消費者信心。加拿大表現不錯,成長率較低——只有個位數。我說的是這個行業。拉丁美洲表現強勁,第二季成長超過 20%,並受到巴西和墨西哥 ORV 勢頭的推動,我們相信這種勢頭將會持續下去。
And EME was down in Q2 by mid-teens, but is improved versus previous quarter. Then when -- this is basically our planning for the industry. And again, our position, we believe we are in a good position versus the others.
EME 在第二季度下降了 15% 左右,但與上一季相比有所改善。那麼當——這基本上就是我們對這個行業的規劃。再說一遍,我們相信我們比其他人處於有利地位。
Sebastien Martel - Chief Financial Officer
Sebastien Martel - Chief Financial Officer
On tariffs, as I mentioned in the prepared remarks, this year is a headwind of gross headwind of $90 million. There are some onetime elements that we've incurred this year that will not come back next year, in the range of about $10 million. If we do nothing, and obviously, that's not how we operate. The teams are always there to optimize and minimize the impact.
關於關稅,正如我在準備好的演講中提到的,今年的逆風總額高達 9000 萬美元。我們今年產生的一些一次性費用明年不會再出現,大約 1000 萬美元。如果我們什麼都不做,顯然這不是我們的行事方式。團隊始終致力於優化和減少影響力。
You could see again with the same tariff base that we have, maybe a headwind of $120 million, $130 million. But obviously, we're going to keep working on optimizing and working with our suppliers to reduce as much as possible the tariff risk, but that would be the, let's say, the run rate on a steady basis.
您可以再次看到,在同樣的關稅基數下,逆風可能達到 1.2 億美元、1.3 億美元。但顯然,我們將繼續努力優化並與我們的供應商合作,盡可能降低關稅風險,但這將是穩定的運作率。
Operator
Operator
Brian Morrison, TD Cowen.
布萊恩·莫里森 (Brian Morrison),TD Cowen。
Brian Morrison - Analyst
Brian Morrison - Analyst
A question for Sebastien. You have called the $1.3 billion revenue headwind or so a big number from the destock over the past year with the industry inventory being closer to rightsize now, -- how do we think about the revenue profile outlook of this alignment of wholesale and retail? Should it be straight-line recovery over the next 12 months? How do you think about that?
問塞巴斯蒂安一個問題。您曾說,過去一年的去庫存化帶來了約 13 億美元的收入逆風,而現在行業庫存已接近合理規模,我們如何看待批發和零售結合的收入狀況前景?未來 12 個月內應該直線復甦嗎?您對此有何看法?
Sebastien Martel - Chief Financial Officer
Sebastien Martel - Chief Financial Officer
Well, obviously, it's probably a bit early to call what next year is going to be like as we just issued guidance for the next six months of the year. But -- if you look at the pluses and minus for next year versus this year, I think the big one is going to be the retail equals wholesale.
嗯,顯然,現在預測明年的情況可能還為時過早,因為我們剛剛發布了未來六個月的指導。但是——如果你看看明年與今年相比的優點和缺點,我認為最大的區別在於零售額等於批發額。
And when you look at the number this year and the destocking we did it's between $400 million to $500 million revenue impact that we've had, and it's well above $1 of EPS impact, obviously. And so once -- hopefully, we're going to be there at the end of the year. We're there already where our inventory is rightsized. We need a bit more work to do on snowmobile. And so that headwind should be gone next year.
如果你看一下今年的數字以及我們所做的去庫存措施,你會發現它對我們的收入產生了 4 億到 5 億美元的影響,而且顯然遠高於每股收益 1 美元的影響。所以一旦——希望我們能在年底到達那裡。我們的庫存已經達到合適的規模。我們需要在雪地摩托車方面做更多的工作。因此,明年這種逆風應該會消失。
Obviously, there are some volume opportunities as well for next year. We've been losing market share in ORV now for the past year or so. mainly due to the noncurrent dynamic in the industry. Now the inventories are cleaner. There's a bit of more work to be done for a few OEMs, but my call is that they should be done by the end of the year.
顯然,明年也有一些銷售機會。在過去一年左右的時間裡,我們在 ORV 領域的市佔率一直在下降,這主要是由於該行業缺乏活力。現在庫存更加乾淨了。還有一些工作需要為一些 OEM 完成,但我認為它們應該在今年年底前完成。
We're back from Club, as Jose mentioned that in his remarks as well, a lot of excitement you were there as well, Brian, last week, and you saw the dealer engagement saw. You saw the great products we have. And so that obviously helps next year. And from the market share perspective, I trust that Sandy and his team will be working on turning the tide and we should see market share improve next year. So that obviously will be a plus, so that's from a more a top line perspective.
我們從俱樂部回來了,正如何塞在他的演講中提到的那樣,布萊恩,上週你也在那裡感到非常興奮,你看到了經銷商的參與。您看到了我們擁有的優質產品。這顯然對明年有所幫助。從市場份額的角度來看,我相信桑迪和他的團隊將努力扭轉局面,我們應該會看到明年市場份額的提高。所以這顯然是一個優勢,從頂線角度來看也是如此。
And then when you look at the profitability, obviously, we continue to drive efficiencies. That's for sure. The teams are always working on optimizing the bill of material, the operations on our plant. We might decide to invest in other -- in certain sectors. We -- even though there's a slowdown, you saw that we continued investing in innovation. We're going to continue doing that next year. So maybe that's a wash.
然後,當你查看獲利能力時,顯然我們會繼續提高效率。那是肯定的。團隊一直致力於優化物料清單和工廠的運作。我們可能會決定投資其他某些領域。儘管經濟放緩,但您會看到我們仍在繼續投資創新。明年我們將繼續這樣做。所以也許這就是一種洗禮。
And then in terms of other minuses, I talked about the tariffs, so they're going to be higher next year. That's if we don't do anything, depreciation could be, let's say, $30 million higher next year financing costs as well. and the tax rate probably closer to where we were historically at the 25%, 26% range. So again, here are some of the plus -- high level of pluses and minuses, but obviously, too early to call. We'll enjoy the guidance that we just issued today, it's still hot. It's still warm, and we look forward to provide you with details on '27 in the next few quarters.
然後就其他不利因素而言,我談到了關稅,明年關稅將會更高。如果我們不採取任何措施,那麼明年的折舊費用可能會增加 3000 萬美元,而稅率可能更接近歷史水平,即 25% 至 26% 的範圍。所以,再次強調,這裡有一些優點——優點和缺點都很多,但顯然,現在下結論還為時過早。我們將享受今天剛發布的指導,它仍然很熱門。天氣仍然溫暖,我們期待在接下來的幾個季度為您提供有關 '27 的詳細資訊。
Brian Morrison - Analyst
Brian Morrison - Analyst
I appreciate those details. I think the message though is that of that alignment, $400 million to $500 million of that is incurred in the second half of this year. And in a flat environment, we should see the remainder of that next year. is that correct?
我很欣賞這些細節。我認為,訊息是,這種調整將在今年下半年產生 4 億至 5 億美元。在平穩的環境下,我們應該會在明年看到剩餘的情況。對嗎?
And then my second question is really just on your margins, but you said, can you maybe just bring the impacts from promo activity this year because obviously, it's material. And with the noncurrent inventory in the industry starting to ease, maybe just frame how we should think about the margin impact that should have going forward.
然後我的第二個問題實際上只是關於你的利潤率,但你說,你能否只帶來今年促銷活動的影響,因為顯然這是實質的。隨著產業中非流通庫存開始減少,也許我們應該思考未來對利潤率的影響。
Sebastien Martel - Chief Financial Officer
Sebastien Martel - Chief Financial Officer
Yes. Last year was a big year in terms of promotion. So this year, we're getting a benefit probably in the range of, let's say, 75 to 100 basis points versus pre-COVID or even 50 basis points better could we further optimize next year for sure, as we had did a big.
是的。去年是推廣工作的重要一年。因此,今年,我們獲得的收益可能在 75 到 100 個基點之間,與 COVID 之前相比,甚至可能高出 50 個基點,我們明年肯定可以進一步優化,就像我們已經做的巨大努力一樣。
Well, the commercial environment was tougher this year, so more promotions. We had to compete against other OEMs that had noncurrent -- so could there be another 50 basis point tailwind next year, most certainly, that's something that is plausible. Obviously, there are a lot of variables that need to fall into place, but it is one possible scenario.
嗯,今年的商業環境更嚴峻,所以促銷活動更多。我們必須與其他擁有非經常性產品的 OEM 競爭——因此明年是否還會出現另一個 50 個基點的順風,這當然是有可能的。顯然,有很多變數需要考慮,但這是一種可能的情況。
Operator
Operator
Robin Farley, UBS.
瑞銀的羅賓法利。
Robin Farley - Analyst
Robin Farley - Analyst
Great. Just two things. One is a follow-up to your comments about expectations for a second half of retail. You said kind of similar to what we saw in Q2, but you mentioned US down mid-single kind up low single if we were talking about just your ORV expectations because I understand there's some seasonal things that for your product lines may be different.
偉大的。只有兩件事。一是針對您對零售業下半年預期的評論進行後續追蹤。您說的情況與我們在第二季度看到的情況有點相似,但是如果我們只談論您的 ORV 預期,您提到美國中單價下跌,單價上漲,單價下跌,因為我知道您的產品線可能會因一些季節性因素而有所不同。
But if we were looking at just North American ORV retail in the second half, would you say that you're expecting North America to be up low single digit as you saw in Q2 -- in other words, some of the numbers you were giving, I assume were impacted by those other product lines, but is it fair to say that your comment about expecting second half trends similar to Q2 would be also the case just for ORV specifically.
但是,如果我們只看下半年北美 ORV 零售量,您是否預期北美市場將像第二季一樣出現低個位數成長?換句話說,我認為您給出的一些數字受到了其他產品線的影響,但您是否認為,您關於預計下半年趨勢與第二季度相似的評論也適用於 ORV 的情況?
Sebastien Martel - Chief Financial Officer
Sebastien Martel - Chief Financial Officer
Well, we -- when I look at Q2, every month sequentially ORV retail improved. And so from May to June to July. And sequentially, we're seeing improvements as well happening in August. As Jose mentioned, the industry is cleaner in terms of current noncurrent. Yes, some OEMs have higher noncurrent than where they were historically.
嗯,我們——當我看第二季時,ORV 零售額每個月都在連續改善。從五月到六月再到七月。隨後,我們也看到八月的情況有所改善。正如 Jose 所提到的,就當前非當前情況而言,該行業更加清潔。是的,有些 OEM 的非當前狀況比其歷史水準要高。
But I think we'll be competing in a better environment. Obviously, yes, we're transitioning to a new model year. So I'm hoping to see better numbers than what we saw in Q2. And early in August, the trend is in the right direction. And so obviously, we're working to make sure that, that continues.
但我認為我們將在更好的環境中競爭。顯然,是的,我們正在過渡到新的車型年。所以我希望看到比第二季更好的數字。八月初,趨勢正朝著正確的方向發展。顯然,我們正在努力確保這種情況繼續下去。
Robin Farley - Analyst
Robin Farley - Analyst
Okay. Great. And then my other question is when we look at your inventory compared to pre-COVID levels being up only 2%, down 1%, including new product lines or excluding new product lines. And I guess, specifically for ORV down 5%. With your retail volume so much higher than pre-COVID levels.
好的。偉大的。然後我的另一個問題是,當我們查看您的庫存時,與 COVID 之前的水平相比,包括新產品線或不包括新產品線,僅增加了 2%,下降了 1%。我猜,具體來說,ORV 下降了 5%。您的零售量比疫情之前的水平高得多。
How is that down 5% the right number? And especially because I'm assuming that's an aggregate and your dealer base has probably grown so that would suggest that like on a per dealer level your RV inventory is even further below. Just wondering why that is the right number for you.
為什麼說下降 5% 是正確的數字?尤其是因為我假設這是一個總數,而您的經銷商基礎可能已經成長,所以這表明在每個經銷商層面上,您的 RV 庫存甚至更低。我只是想知道為什麼這個數字對你來說是正確的。
Sebastien Martel - Chief Financial Officer
Sebastien Martel - Chief Financial Officer
Well, one, the dealer count is fairly stable versus we were pre-COVID. And so it's on a, let's say, same-store basis. And were we to a bit too high during recovers could say yes.
首先,與疫情之前相比,經銷商數量相當穩定。所以,可以說,這是基於同店的基礎。如果在恢復期間我們有點太高的話,我們可以說是的。
Obviously, it's a question of dollars as well. The dollar value of units is significantly higher. And so dealers are more cautious in taking inventory when the dollar value was almost up 50%, i.e., increase, but also a combination of better mix. And also, there is a benefit in where demand for cab units is still very strong and supply is slightly lower than where we were in a historical level for our other product lines.
顯然,這也是一個金錢問題。單位的美元價值明顯較高。因此,當美元價值上漲近 50% 時,經銷商在清理庫存時會更加謹慎,即增加,但組合也會更好。此外,還有一個好處是,駕駛室單元的需求仍然非常強勁,供應量略低於我們其他產品線的歷史水準。
So that's one of the reasons that's driving lower ORV inventory for us, but also other -- and there's always going to be variation in our inventory levels. It's never going to be fixed 90 day, every month, every quarter. It will move. But generally, we're happy with where the inventory stands. It provides us with flexibility proactivity if there were to be an economic slowdown.
這是導致我們的 ORV 庫存減少的原因之一,但也有其他原因——我們的庫存水準總是會發生變化。它永遠不可能每 90 天、每月、每季修復一次。它會移動。但總體而言,我們對庫存現狀感到滿意。如果出現經濟放緩,它能為我們提供靈活性和主動性。
And I think given where the uncertainty in the state of the economy, I think it's at the right level, and we'll adjust our inventories accordingly as the business continues to evolve.
我認為,考慮到經濟狀況的不確定性,我認為它處於正確的水平,並且隨著業務的不斷發展,我們將相應地調整庫存。
Operator
Operator
Sabahat Khan, RBC Capital Markets.
Sabahat Khan,加拿大皇家銀行資本市場。
Sabahat Khan - Analyst
Sabahat Khan - Analyst
Just in light of some of the comments around the inventory position and sort of the outlook, can you get a little bit deeper into sort of the retail evolution you expect into sort of the back half of this year and into next year? Is this sort of just sequential improvement in the retail uptake on the consumer side? And sort of how are you factoring into your outlook, some of the macro factors that you talked about and how they might impact the consumer uptake? And if there's any color across categories on the retail uptake outlook?
僅鑑於有關庫存狀況和前景的一些評論,您能否更深入地談談您預計今年下半年和明年零售業的發展?這是否只是消費者零售吸收量的連續改善?您如何將您談到的一些宏觀因素納入您的展望中,以及它們如何影響消費者的接受度?零售吸收前景中各類別是否有任何差異?
Sebastien Martel - Chief Financial Officer
Sebastien Martel - Chief Financial Officer
Yes. Again, we don't have, let's say, a black box that gives us the full industry and retail trends. But obviously, there's we need to appreciate that there are many variables such as tariffs, interest rates, consumer sentiment. So it's difficult to forecast industry at the moment.
是的。再說一遍,我們沒有一個黑盒子可以告訴我們整個產業和零售趨勢。但顯然,我們需要認識到有很多變量,例如關稅、利率、消費者情緒。因此目前很難預測產業。
But all in all, despite all the noise that we've seen in the industry and the market, the industries have held up so far decently this year being down low single-digit percentage overall. Yes, some of that was helped by the noncurrent promotions, that's fair. And -- but we're transitioning now to a model year. So now we're -- there's going to be noncurrent, the model year '25 will be noncurrent.
但總而言之,儘管我們看到行業和市場中存在各種噪音,但今年迄今為止,各行業表現良好,整體下降幅度僅為個位數百分比。是的,其中一些是受到非當前促銷活動的幫助,這是公平的。而且——但我們現在正在過渡到車型年。所以現在我們——將會有非目前的車型,25 年款將會是非當前的車型。
And the other big question is how interest rates will behave, how interest rates will move. So our base case for the rest of the year is a continuation of the trend we are seeing, because we're transitioning to a new model year. But despite this, even though there's volatility, we're confident in the guidance we have today because, again, even if there is a slight movement in industry and retail. Our inventories are low. Dealers want our new units, the new innovation. We have orders for Snowmobile. And so we're confident in the guidance we've issued today based on all of these factors.
另一個大問題是利率將如何表現,利率將如何變動。因此,我們對今年剩餘時間的基本預測是延續我們所看到的趨勢,因為我們正在過渡到新的車型年。但儘管如此,即使存在波動,我們對今天的指導仍然充滿信心,因為即使工業和零售業出現輕微波動。我們的庫存很少。經銷商想要我們的新產品、新創新。我們有雪地摩托車的訂單。因此,我們對今天基於所有這些因素發布的指導充滿信心。
Sabahat Khan - Analyst
Sabahat Khan - Analyst
Great. And then as we look at sort of the balance sheet in the, call it, 2% range, is it a bit of a wait and see on the balance sheet and capital allocation as you look ahead? And presumably, production probably picks up, might be some need for investment there as units start to improve. Can you just walk us through your views on sort of capital allocation, balance sheet and maybe reinvestment into the business as potentially move toward an upcycle here?
偉大的。然後,當我們查看資產負債表(我們稱之為 2% 範圍)時,展望未來,您是否會稍微觀望資產負債表和資本配置?據推測,隨著單位開始改善,產量可能會回升,可能需要一些投資。您能否向我們介紹一下您對資本配置、資產負債表以及可能進入上升週期的業務再投資的看法?
Sebastien Martel - Chief Financial Officer
Sebastien Martel - Chief Financial Officer
Yes. Well, our priority in terms of capital allocation has always been investing in the business, growing the dividend and also doing buybacks. But we've given the context, the uncertainty around tariffs, the economy, we've been on the sideline on buybacks.
是的。嗯,我們在資本配置方面的重點一直是投資業務、增加股利以及回購。但考慮到關稅和經濟方面的不確定性,我們一直對回購持觀望態度。
And we'll probably continue being on the sideline as well until we see that clarity and when we see the cash flow come in. The priority has always been protecting the financial flexibility of the company, and we are fortunate, we are in a good position we've got debt with no covenants. And so we don't need to worry about the financial meeting our financial covenants.
我們可能還會繼續保持觀望態度,直到看到明朗的局面和現金流流入。我們的首要任務一直是保護公司的財務靈活性,我們很幸運,我們處於良好的地位,我們沒有任何契約債務。因此,我們不必擔心財務能否滿足我們的財務契約。
We've got ample flexibility on the revolver as well. But currently, being prudent has been the name of the game, and we're going to continue managing our balance sheet that way.
我們在左輪手槍上也擁有足夠的彈性。但目前,謹慎是關鍵,我們將繼續以這種方式管理我們的資產負債表。
Operator
Operator
Joe Altobello, Raymond James.
喬·阿爾托貝洛、雷蒙·詹姆斯。
Joseph Altobello - Analyst
Joseph Altobello - Analyst
So just want to go back to the guidance. for a second. And I think said, you mentioned this earlier. If I look at first half versus second half, it's quite striking. The revenue midpoint, I guess, is up 10% or around $400 million. So I'm just trying to understand how much of that is simply lapping last year's under shipping demand -- and how much is innovation like Defender, for example? I'm just trying to assess the risk of that outlook.
因此,我只想回到指導上來。我認為您之前提到過這一點。如果我把上半場和下半場做比較,我會發現情況相當驚人。我估計收入中點上漲了 10%,也就是 4 億美元左右。所以我只是想了解其中有多少只是滿足了去年的運輸需求——又有多少是像 Defender 這樣的創新?我只是想評估這種前景的風險。
Sebastien Martel - Chief Financial Officer
Sebastien Martel - Chief Financial Officer
Well, for sure, I mean, last year, it was an easy -- H2 is an easy second half to lap. And most of the focus last year was on reducing seasonal product inventory in the network. And so our shipments were actually down for the seasonal product business. This year, when you look at our H2 guidance or outlook, seasonal revenue is relatively flat versus last year as there's still work to be done on snowmobile, but we're planning to increase year-round products. Last year was decent, but this year, H2 is going to be more in line with what we did in '23 and '24.
嗯,當然,我的意思是,去年,這很容易——H2 的後半段很容易跑完。去年的大部分重點是減少網路中的季節性產品庫存。因此,我們的季節性產品業務的出貨量實際上下降了。今年,當您查看我們的下半年指導或展望時,季節性收入與去年相比相對持平,因為雪地摩托車方面仍有工作要做,但我們計劃增加全年產品。去年還不錯,但今年下半年的表現將與我們 23 年和 24 年的表現更加一致。
In terms of delivery, obviously, we have the new products that's driving some of the volume, but we believe that's going to be also going to be driving retail. And also mix is also going to be beneficial in the second half of this year where mix was more challenged last year as we undershipped (inaudible) business with a very rich miss, and we also have, obviously, cost efficiencies that we're factoring in the second half and also lower sales program.
在交付方面,顯然,我們的新產品推動了部分銷量,但我們相信這也將推動零售業的發展。此外,產品組合在今年下半年也將受益,而去年的產品組合面臨更大挑戰,因為我們出貨量不足(聽不清楚),而且我們顯然在下半年考慮了成本效率,並且降低了銷售計劃。
So all in all, I would say that, yes, it was an easy comp last year, and last year was well below what we believe the earnings power of the company is. And this year is a more indication of what the true earnings power of BRP is. When the inventory is -- when we're shipping more wholesale equal retail.
總而言之,我想說,是的,去年的業績比較輕鬆,而且去年的業績遠低於我們認為的公司獲利能力。今年更能體現BRP真正的獲利能力。當我們運送更多的批發庫存時,零售庫存就相等了。
Joseph Altobello - Analyst
Joseph Altobello - Analyst
Okay. Got it. And on the tariff front, you mentioned the $90 million this morning. I think somebody else asked this, but I'm not sure if you answered it. What's the net number post mitigation. I'm just trying to tie back to your original EPS outlook for this year, which I think was $4.50 to $5. Just curious if that's now actually higher if we exclude the tariffs.
好的。知道了。關於關稅方面,您今天早上提到了 9000 萬美元。我想其他人也問過這個問題,但我不確定您是否回答了。緩解後的淨數字是多少?我只是想將其與您最初對今年每股收益的預期聯繫起來,我認為是 4.50 美元到 5 美元。我只是好奇,如果我們排除關稅,這個數字是否實際上會更高。
Sebastien Martel - Chief Financial Officer
Sebastien Martel - Chief Financial Officer
Yes. Net of the mitigation efforts we've put in, we're probably ending at a, let's $0.25 to $0.30 negative impact on the P&L. Most of the mitigation efforts have been that we've taken higher pricing. Usually, we do a 1%, 1.5%, but we've taken pricing higher, mainly in the parts and accessories business. But that's how we've mitigated the impact.
是的。在扣除我們所做的緩解措施後,我們可能最終會對損益表造成 0.25 美元至 0.30 美元的負面影響。我們採取的大部分緩解措施是提高定價。通常,我們的定價是 1%、1.5%,但我們的定價更高,主要是在零件和配件業務方面。但這就是我們減輕影響的方法。
Operator
Operator
Martin Landry, Stifel.
馬丁·蘭德里 (Martin Landry),Stifel。
Martin Landry - Analyst
Martin Landry - Analyst
Sebastian, speaking about earnings power, I would like to just have a little bit of a discussion a couple of years ago, the company was guiding for an EPS of all the way up to $14 and now you're guiding for an EPS for 470 yes, around 450. So how long and what kind of earnings power could we expect from the company in the coming years? I understand that going back to $14 is probably unrealistic in the near term. But I'd love to hear you talk a little bit about what kind of earnings power can the company have in the next two, three, four years?
塞巴斯蒂安,說到獲利能力,我想稍微討論一下,幾年前,公司預期每股收益一路上漲至 14 美元,而現在你預期每股收益為 470 美元,是的,大約 450 美元。那麼,未來幾年我們可以期待該公司保持多長時間的盈利能力以及盈利能力如何?我明白,短期內回到 14 美元可能不太現實。但我很想聽您談談公司在未來兩年、三年、四年內能夠擁有什麼樣的獲利能力?
Sebastien Martel - Chief Financial Officer
Sebastien Martel - Chief Financial Officer
Well, I mean I like where BRP is sitting today. I've been with the company for 20 years. I've seen how the company has grown and evolved. And obviously, we are today a must in the Powersport industry. the breadth of our product portfolio from the quality of the products, from -- we offer from the dealer network we've built over the years, not only in North America, but around the world.
嗯,我的意思是我喜歡 BRP 目前的處境。我在這家公司已經工作了20年。我見證了公司如何成長和發展。顯然,我們今天在動力運動產業中是必不可少的。我們的產品組合範圍廣泛,產品品質優良,我們提供的產品不僅在北美,而且在世界各地建立的經銷商網路也十分完善。
And so I believe that BRP can continue growing in the industry. Absolutely. We've talked about ORV market share, being able to grow it and obviously, not only the side-by-side, but ATV, it all obviously depends on the industry. So BRP has the resources, the capacity to continue growing. We need to drive industry as well. But the industry is based on the macro environment, interest rates, consumer confidence, unemployment rates to other.
因此我相信 BRP 能夠在業界繼續發展。絕對地。我們討論了 ORV 市場份額,能否擴大市場份額,顯然,不僅是並排式房車,還有 ATV,這顯然都取決於行業。因此,BRP 擁有資源和能力來繼續發展。我們也需要推動工業發展。但產業走勢取決於宏觀環境、利率、消費者信心、失業率等。
So there are many variables. So o it's very dependent on how the industry behaves, Martin. So do I believe that if the industry grows and the economy is robust, that we can get to the numbers that we talked about in the past, absolutely. -- because BRP has become innovation machine and a profitability machine as well for the dealers. And that's -- these are the key factors that are going to drive growth in the future.
因此存在著許多變數。所以這很大程度取決於產業的行為,馬丁。所以我相信,如果產業發展且經濟強勁,我們絕對可以達到我們過去談到的數字——因為 BRP 已經成為經銷商的創新機器和獲利機器。這就是推動未來成長的關鍵因素。
Martin Landry - Analyst
Martin Landry - Analyst
Okay. And could we -- is it fair to say that there's a realistic scenario where your EPS could double from current level in the next two, three years?
好的。我們是否可以公平地說,存在一個現實的情況,即您的每股收益在未來兩三年內可以比當前水準翻倍?
Sebastien Martel - Chief Financial Officer
Sebastien Martel - Chief Financial Officer
Again, it's very -- do we have the backbone to do it? Yes, we have the manufacturing capacity to do it? Yes, we have the product lines to do it. Yes, the network, yes. it will be very dependent on industry dynamics.
再說一遍,這非常——我們有勇氣去做這件事嗎?是的,我們有製造能力來做到這一點嗎?是的,我們有產品線來做到這一點。是的,網絡,是的。它將非常依賴產業動態。
Operator
Operator
Mark Petrie, CIBC.
加拿大帝國商業銀行的馬克‧皮特里。
Mark Petrie - Analyst
Mark Petrie - Analyst
I just want to clarify maybe a couple of things. You talked about two figures from the destock headwind, the $1.3 billion and then the $400 million to $500 million. Could you just square up exactly what those are referring to. I think the $400 million to $500 million is the potential tailwind into next year. But could you just be clear on that?
我只是想澄清幾件事。您談到了去庫存逆風帶來的兩個數字,一個是 13 億美元,另一個是 4 億到 5 億美元。您能否確切地解釋一下這些指的是什麼?我認為 4 億到 5 億美元是明年的潛在順風。但你能說清楚這一點嗎?
Sebastien Martel - Chief Financial Officer
Sebastien Martel - Chief Financial Officer
Yes, the overall impact if you do the accumulation there, when we talked about destocking in '20 fiscal, I don't want to make the fiscal year '25 now we're destocking in fiscal year '26. The combined effect probably adds up to $1 billion plus. The number I referred to in my question to Brian was a $400 million to $500 million impact when I compare -- the destocking we did in the current fiscal year, the impact of that destocking is about $400 million to $500 million of revenue just for this year.
是的,如果你在那裡進行積累,那麼總體影響就是,當我們談到 20 財年的去庫存時,我不想讓 25 財年現在我們在 26 財年去庫存。綜合效應可能達到 10 億美元以上。我在向布萊恩提問時提到的數字是,與我們在本財年進行的去庫存相比,這一數字的影響是 4 億至 5 億美元,僅今年一年,去庫存的影響就約為 4 億至 5 億美元的收入。
Mark Petrie - Analyst
Mark Petrie - Analyst
Okay. Understood. And then you were talking about the -- or highlighting the 14% to 15% EBITDA margin level implied for the second half in your outlook. Could you just sort of walk through kind of the biggest factors bridging that from last year? And then how to shape those into fiscal '27. I think you've already touched on the programs, which I think you said it could be a 50-basis point tailwind. But could you just give a little bit more color there, please?
好的。明白了。然後您談到了——或者強調了您預測的下半年隱含的 14% 至 15% 的 EBITDA 利潤率水平。能否簡單介紹去年造成這現象的最大因素?然後如何將這些融入 27 財年。我想您已經談到了這些計劃,我想您說過這可能會帶來 50 個基點的順風。但是您能再多解釋一下嗎?
Sebastien Martel - Chief Financial Officer
Sebastien Martel - Chief Financial Officer
Yes. And again, I'll probably refrain from making any estimates on '27, too early. But I gave you some color as to what I believe the pluses and minuses are for next year. But when I look at this year, just for H2, we look at gross profit, obviously, the second half of the year, I'm expecting gross profit increase probably 300 basis points easily versus where we were last year.
是的。再次強調,我可能不會對 27 年做出任何估計,因為還為時過早。但我向你們介紹了我認為明年的優缺點。但當我回顧今年下半年時,我們看的是毛利,顯然,我預計下半年的毛利將比去年同期輕鬆成長 300 個基點。
So let's say, low 300 basis points to whatever, 250, 300 from an OpEx it will be higher in the second half of the year versus last year, probably 500 basis points, mainly coming from variable compensation. And from an EBITDA margin, second half of the year, you're probably going to see 150 basis points net-net there when you do the pluses and minuses on the EBITDA, a positive growth. So well above 14% EBITDA margin in the second half of the year.
因此,假設低 300 個基點到任意 250、300 個基點,那麼下半年的營運支出將比去年高出 500 個基點,主要來自可變薪酬。從 EBITDA 利潤率來看,下半年,當您計算 EBITDA 的正負值時,您可能會看到 150 個基點的淨成長,即正成長。因此下半年的 EBITDA 利潤率遠高於 14%。
Operator
Operator
Benoit Poirier, Desjardins.
Benoit Poirier,德斯雅爾丹。
Benoit Poirier - Analyst
Benoit Poirier - Analyst
Yes. Joe, just in terms of retail sales between Canada and US, there's been a discrepancy. Canada was up low single digits. US was down low single digits. So I was wondering if you have any thoughts on what's driving this? I've seen some comments from dealers in Canada pointing to greater interest for BRP products, given the geopolitical issues or I'm just wondering if it's a matter of having a much lower of noncurrent units in Canada. So any color on the discrepancy between both countries would be great?
是的。喬,就加拿大和美國的零售額而言,存在差異。加拿大的漲幅僅為個位數。美國則下降了個位數。所以我想知道您對推動這現象的原因有何看法?我看到加拿大經銷商的一些評論指出,考慮到地緣政治問題,他們對 BRP 產品的興趣更大,或者我只是想知道這是否是因為加拿大的非流通單位數量少得多。那麼,如果能對兩國之間的差異做出任何解釋就好了?
Jose Boisjoli - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer
Jose Boisjoli - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer
I think there is -- this is my belief, in US, there is still the tariff uncertainty and the thing, the price change very often. Also, the inflation is still high on the high side, and there was no interest rate reduction so far, then the US consumers I think is more uncertain about the overall economy. And we see that in the lower income customers, a lot of our rejection rate for people who are asking to buy a Ryker is very high in US. In Canada, it's a bit different dynamic.
我認為——這是我的信念,在美國,仍然存在關稅不確定性,而且價格經常變化。另外,通膨仍然處於高位,而且到目前為止還沒有降息,那麼美國消費者我認為對整體經濟更加不確定。我們發現,在美國,對於低收入客戶來說,購買 Ryker 的拒絕率非常高。在加拿大,情況有點不同。
Lot the dealer are -- first, the dealer in Canada are very loyal to BRP and the economy is overall good. I didn't heard personally dealers saying that because of the tariff situation, there is more interest for BRP product. I believe maybe some US companies have more difficulty because of the exchange rate between Canada and US to come to Canada. But I think the dynamic is more caused by the macroeconomic environment in the US than anything else.
很多經銷商——首先,加拿大的經銷商對 BRP 非常忠誠,而且整體經濟狀況良好。我沒有親自聽到經銷商說由於關稅情況,對 BRP 產品的興趣更大。我相信一些美國公司可能因為加拿大和美國之間的匯率問題而更難進入加拿大。但我認為,這種動態更多的是美國的宏觀經濟環境所造成的。
Benoit Poirier - Analyst
Benoit Poirier - Analyst
Okay. That's interesting. And with respect to the pricing adjustment that we -- you just announced at the Club, we've seen some of your peers that were able to drive stronger sales on the back of lower pricing. So I was wondering whether you're seeing positive impact following price adjustments made at the Club, Jose?
好的。那很有意思。關於我們剛剛在俱樂部宣布的價格調整,我們看到一些同行能夠透過降低價格來推動更強勁的銷售。所以我想知道,俱樂部進行價格調整後,您是否看到了積極的影響,何塞?
Jose Boisjoli - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer
Jose Boisjoli - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer
I mean it's too early to call because right now, Benoit, we have order on hand for all the ORV product for deliveries in August, September. We doing next week, the booking for deliveries in October. But what I can tell you, -- it's not -- it's normal that from time to time, you readjust your pricing. And what happened during the COVID, a lot of OEM have increased more the pricing than others.
我的意思是現在下結論還為時過早,因為現在,Benoit,我們手頭上已經有所有 ORV 產品的訂單,將於 8 月、9 月交貨。我們下週將進行十月份交貨的預訂。但我可以告訴你的是,這並不正常,你時不時地調整定價是正常的。在新冠疫情期間,許多 OEM 廠商的定價都比其他廠商更高。
And we were somewhat not competitive in six categories, and we took the timing right now that our inventory is low situation, it seems to be more stable to readjust our pricing in six categories because we drive to continue to gain market share in the off-road business, and every category need to grow. And this is -- the timing was perfect for us. Then it's too early to tell you, but in our internal planning, we definitely planning to grow volume in those category for product.
我們在六個類別中缺乏競爭力,我們認為現在的時機是庫存較低的情況下,重新調整六個類別的定價似乎更為穩定,因為我們致力於繼續在越野業務中獲得市場份額,並且每個類別都需要成長。而這——對我們來說時機恰到好處。現在告訴你還為時過早,但在我們的內部規劃中,我們肯定計劃增加這些產品類別的銷售量。
Benoit Poirier - Analyst
Benoit Poirier - Analyst
Okay. And maybe last one for me. You've been quite successful ramping up the fishing offering in the Sea Doo category, we've seen a that came with the new fishing PwC called the cross wave, so I was wondering, Jose, if you have any thoughts on this new product from Yamaha and whether you've seen some impact on the Sea Doo Fisho offering so far?
好的。對我來說這也許是最後一次了。您在提升 Sea Doo 類別的釣魚產品方面取得了相當大的成功,我們已經看到了新釣魚 PwC 帶來的一種名為 Cross Wave 的產品,所以我想知道,Jose,您對雅馬哈的這款新產品有什麼看法,以及到目前為止,您是否看到了它對 Sea Doo Fisho 產品的影響?
Jose Boisjoli - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer
Jose Boisjoli - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer
But for the product, nobody saw it physically yet. It's scheduled to be delivered next spring, then we'll see how it goes. But definitely, in the watercraft industry, recreational product for recreational-only activity is still good, but we've been very good to have specialized vehicle, and that's what we've done with the (inaudible). That's what we've done with the explorer, that's what we've done with the fish Pro.
但對於該產品,還沒有人親眼見過。它預計將於明年春天交付,然後我們再看看進展如何。但毫無疑問,在船舶行業,用於純休閒活動的休閒產品仍然很好,但我們非常擅長擁有專用車輛,這就是我們所做的(聽不清楚)。這就是我們對 explorer 所做的,這就是我們對 fish Pro 所做的。
And this is tailored to activity, which bring new customer to the industry. Then obviously, Yamaha took a different approach, but it will be interesting to see how it grows. And at the same time, it's is pushing us to be better and to be more competitive, we like competition.
這是根據活動量身定制的,它為行業帶來了新客戶。顯然,雅馬哈採取了不同的方法,但看看它如何發展將會很有趣。同時,它也促使我們變得更好、更有競爭力,我們喜歡競爭。
And if they can accelerate the development of people who fit into the watercraft category, I welcome the initiative. I mean, if we could continue because we are the two main players to grow the industry, I think it will be better for both of us, and we're not afraid of the competition.
如果他們能夠加速適合水上交通工具類別的人才的培養,我會歡迎這項措施。我的意思是,如果我們能夠繼續下去,因為我們是推動產業發展的兩個主要參與者,我認為這對我們雙方都有好處,我們不怕競爭。
Operator
Operator
Luke Hannan, Canaccord.
盧克漢南 (Luke Hannan),Canaccord。
Luke Hannan - Analyst
Luke Hannan - Analyst
Most of my questions have been answered. So it's just a clarification on some earlier lines of questioning. On the topic of the normalized earnings power, I know you've referenced it as far as EPS in the past -- but I know that you've also discussed a normalized EBITDA margin of in and around 17% as sort of being the structural mid-cycle target that you guys have had. What does that number look like? Or has it changed that post marine divestments? What should we be thinking about as sort of the longer-term margin potential here?
我的大部分問題都已得到解答。所以這只是對之前一些問題的澄清。關於正常化獲利能力的話題,我知道您過去曾提到過每股收益,但我知道您也討論過 17% 左右的正常化 EBITDA 利潤率,這是您的結構性中期目標。這個數字是什麼樣的?或者海洋撤資後情況發生了變化?我們應該考慮什麼樣的長期利潤潛力?
Sebastien Martel - Chief Financial Officer
Sebastien Martel - Chief Financial Officer
No. If there's anything, it's probably even more achievable. I mean we've delivered high EBITDA margin percentages in the past with the MGarine business up to 19%. I think when you exclude marine pro forma, you would be at 21%. So is the 17% still achievable?
不。如果有的話,它可能更容易實現。我的意思是,我們過去實現了較高的 EBITDA 利潤率,其中 MGarine 業務的利潤率高達 19%。我認為,當你排除海洋形式時,你的比例將是 21%。那麼 17% 還能實現嗎?
to an earlier question from Martin Landry, again, as the business grows, as we get to these -- as the industry grows, as we get to these higher revenue numbers, for sure, EBITDA margin will grow as we leverage the investments we've made in the past and as we leverage the existing manufacturing capacity. So I do believe that it's a number that's still very much achievable.
回答馬丁·蘭德里 (Martin Landry) 先前提出的問題,隨著業務的增長,隨著行業的發展,隨著我們獲得更高的收入數字,隨著我們利用過去的投資和現有的製造能力,EBITDA 利潤率肯定會增長。所以我確實相信這個數字仍然是可以實現的。
Luke Hannan - Analyst
Luke Hannan - Analyst
Great. And then you also touched on the dealers' utilization of their line of credit. It was 60% this quarter and it's down from 70% last quarter. How has that fluctuated over the course of, we'll say, the last few years? And I mean like is it at a point now where it's basically troughed and we continue -- should see that expands given the retail environment? Or just how roughly, I guess, should we be thinking about that over the course of the near to medium term?
偉大的。然後您也談到了經銷商對其信用額度的利用情況。本季這一比例為 60%,低於上一季的 70%。我們可以這樣說,過去幾年中,這情況有何波動?我的意思是,現在它是否已經基本觸底,我們繼續——考慮到零售環境,應該看到它繼續擴大嗎?或者我猜,我們該如何粗略地考慮近期到中期內的這個問題?
Sebastien Martel - Chief Financial Officer
Sebastien Martel - Chief Financial Officer
It is very healthy. Dealers see it as well in their monthly financing cost or floor plan costs. So it is very healthy. As I said, it will move, yes, because there's seasonality in our business. There's inventory buildup before a retail season, sometimes retail there's no plan. Sometimes it's better. So we are expecting it to move. It did go up quite significantly in the last 24 months. But we also did rightsizing of line of credits. We talked about this as well.
它非常健康。經銷商在每個月的融資成本或平面圖成本中也看到了這一點。所以它非常健康。正如我所說,它會變動,是的,因為我們的業務有季節性。零售季節之前會有庫存積累,有時零售沒有計劃。有時候會更好。所以我們期待它能移動。在過去的 24 個月裡,它確實大幅上漲了。但我們也對信貸額度進行了適當調整。我們也談論過這個問題。
Our business has grown significantly. MSRPs have grown as well. And so we needed to bring dealers along to acknowledge that their lines of credit also needed to be tailored to the new reality of the powersports industry and our ERP business. So that's another factor.
我們的業務有了顯著成長。廠商建議零售價也漲了。因此,我們需要讓經銷商認識到,他們的信用額度也需要適應動力運動產業和我們的 ERP 業務的新現實。這是另一個因素。
Luke Hannan - Analyst
Luke Hannan - Analyst
Okay. And then last one for me and then I'll pass the line. Utility SSVs represent about of the overall industry. Can you share what it represents as far as your SSV mix today? And then when we think about the longer-term market share opportunity for you in SSVs, how much of that is utility market share capture versus other a capture and recreational versus other drivers?
好的。然後最後一個就是我了,然後我就通過了。公用事業 SSV 約佔整個產業的份額。您能分享一下它對您今天的 SSV 組合有何影響嗎?然後,當我們考慮您在 SSV 中的長期市場份額機會時,其中有多少是公用事業市場份額佔比與其他市場份額佔比以及娛樂市場份額佔比與其他驅動因素佔比?
Jose Boisjoli - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer
Jose Boisjoli - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer
Same ratio for us, two-third of our volume is utility. And obviously, we've always been stronger in the report then obviously, there is more opportunity in the utility, and that's why we're so optimistic with the new Defender. Because like I said, we have the best TV with old technology. Now we -- we established a new standard with the new technology.
對我們來說,比例也是相同的,我們的三分之二的產量是效用。顯然,我們在報告中的表現一直都很強,顯然,在實用性方面還有更多機會,這就是我們對新 Defender 如此樂觀的原因。因為就像我說的,我們擁有採用舊技術的最好的電視。現在我們——我們利用新科技建立了新標準。
Operator
Operator
Cameron Doerksen, National Bank Financial.
卡梅倫·多爾克森,國家銀行金融。
Cameron Doerksen - Analyst
Cameron Doerksen - Analyst
I guess a question on the tariffs. You mentioned that the new tariff estimate for the year includes the recent announcement of the expansion of products on steel and aluminum tariffs. It doesn't sound like that affects all of your products. Can you just maybe detail that a bit more and whether there's any risk that there could be I guess, further tariff impact, if there's, I guess, another expansion of that steel and aluminum to more products?
我想問的是有關關稅的問題。您提到,今年新的關稅估算包括最近宣布擴大鋼鐵和鋁產品關稅。聽起來這並不會影響你們的所有產品。您能否更詳細地說明一下,如果鋼鐵和鋁的關稅範圍進一步擴大到更多產品,是否有進一步受到關稅影響的風險?
Sebastien Martel - Chief Financial Officer
Sebastien Martel - Chief Financial Officer
Yes, there's always a possibility of the rules changing. This came into effect on August 18, were steel aluminum now at 50%. The vehicles that are impacted is mainly ATV, side-by-side and however, some models of side-by-side are excluded. And it's really on the steel content that are in the vehicle. So the secret is obviously providing what the weight and pack is.
是的,規則總是有可能改變的。該法案於 8 月 18 日生效,目前鋼鋁價格為 50%。受影響的車輛主要是全地形車、並排式車輛,但部分並排式車輛車型除外。這實際上取決於車輛的鋼材含量。因此,秘訣顯然是提供重量和包裝。
And steel is obviously a big part of the vehicle, but it's a low cost in the vehicle. And so it is -- we prefer not to have it. It is an impact, but it's certainly something that we can absorb and if the rules change, we'll adapt as we always do. But difficult for me to call what could be the impact if I were to apply X percentage tariff on X and Y products.
顯然,鋼材是車輛的重要組成部分,但它的成本卻很低。事實確實如此——我們不想有這樣的情況。這確實是一種影響,但我們肯定能夠吸收,如果規則發生變化,我們會像往常一樣進行適應。但我很難說如果我對 X 和 Y 產品徵收 X 百分比的關稅會產生什麼影響。
Cameron Doerksen - Analyst
Cameron Doerksen - Analyst
Okay. No, that's helpful. And maybe, I guess, second question, not that we're rushing to see Jose accelerate his retirement, but just wondered if there's any update on the new CEO search at this point.
好的。不,這很有幫助。我想,也許第二個問題是,我們並不是急於看到何塞加速退休,只是想知道目前新任執行長的搜尋是否有任何最新消息。
Jose Boisjoli - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer
Jose Boisjoli - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer
No update. The search is ongoing, and I was with the HR committee this week and there should -- the transition should be by the end of the year, no change.
沒有更新。搜索仍在進行中,本週我和人力資源委員會在一起,過渡期應該在年底前完成,沒有變化。
Operator
Operator
Tristan Thomas-Martin, BMO Capital Markets.
特里斯坦·托馬斯·馬丁 (Tristan Thomas-Martin),BMO 資本市場。
Tristan Thomas-Martin - Analyst
Tristan Thomas-Martin - Analyst
I don't know if I missed this, but did you guys disclose where you expect your channel inventory levels to be at the end of the year? And then also anecdotally, I'm curious you've heard anything about how dealers are planning on ordering a new product? I understand the reception has been very positive, but just curious the dealers are kind of thinking about the back half and then early next year in terms of planning to order?
我不知道我是否錯過了這一點,但你們是否透露過你們預計到年底你們的渠道庫存水準會達到多少?另外,還有傳聞,我很好奇您是否聽說過經銷商計劃如何訂購新產品?我知道反應非常積極,但我只是好奇經銷商是否考慮下半年以及明年年初的訂購計劃?
Sebastien Martel - Chief Financial Officer
Sebastien Martel - Chief Financial Officer
From an inventory perspective, no big changes versus where we stand. Obviously, there is -- as we've mentioned, there's a bit of work to do on snowmobile -- and so that's going to be the focus in the second half of the year. But generally, where we are in Q2 for the various product lines is where we expect to be at the end of Q4.
從庫存角度來看,與我們目前的狀況相比沒有太大的變化。顯然,正如我們所提到的,在雪地摩托車方面還有一些工作要做,所以這將是今年下半年的重點。但整體而言,我們第二季各產品線的現況與我們預期第四季末的現況相同。
And for your second question, sorry, I missed the I think Jose is going to take it.
對於您的第二個問題,抱歉,我錯過了,我認為何塞會回答這個問題。
Jose Boisjoli - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer
Jose Boisjoli - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer
On the other front, like Sebastien mentioned, we have the order on hand for slow mobile for the delivery for fiscal year '26. Now on Watercraft, we're just finalizing the booking. Dealers sell the product at Club, the look, they do their model mix. But basically, we are on plan. and off road, we have dealer on hand for the deliveries in August and September.
另一方面,正如塞巴斯蒂安所提到的,我們手頭上有 26 財年交付的 Slow Mobile 訂單。現在,關於 Watercraft,我們正在完成預訂。經銷商在俱樂部銷售產品,他們混合使用不同的外觀和款式。但基本上,我們正在按計劃進行。越野方面,我們有經銷商在八月和九月進行交貨。
And we're taking the delivery -- we're taking an order every month or delivery in two months that we'll be taking deliveries in the next two weeks for delivery in October, but we're very confident with the Afro lineup that we have and the novelty that we will meet our numbers.
我們正在接受交貨——我們每個月接受一次訂單,或者在兩個月內交貨,我們將在接下來的兩週內接受交貨,並在十月份交貨,但我們對我們擁有的 Afro 陣容和新穎性非常有信心,我們將滿足我們的數量。
Tristan Thomas-Martin - Analyst
Tristan Thomas-Martin - Analyst
Okay. Great. And if I could just sneak one more in there. I believe in your prepared comments, you said investing in other sectors. Is that investing in product lines within an end market or in or possibly expanding into other end markets?
好的。偉大的。如果我能再偷偷地再放進去一個就好了。我相信您準備好的評論,您說過要投資其他領域。這是在投資終端市場內的產品線還是可能擴展到其他終端市場?
Sebastien Martel - Chief Financial Officer
Sebastien Martel - Chief Financial Officer
It's still centered around the Powersport industry.
它仍然以動力運動產業為中心。
Operator
Operator
(Operator Instructions)
(操作員指示)
Jonathan Goldman, Scotiabank.
加拿大豐業銀行的喬納森‧戈德曼。
Jonathan Goldman - Analyst
Jonathan Goldman - Analyst
I apologize if I missed this, but just going back to the guidance, the second half implying a plus 10% at the midpoint. I think you called out retail being aligned with wholesale and retail kind of being similar in the second half to Q2, which was down low single digits. So to bridge the delta, is it pricing, share gains, new product launches? Any other elements in there?
如果我錯過了這一點,我很抱歉,但回到指導,下半年意味著中點上漲 10%。我認為您所說的零售業與批發業保持一致,而零售業在下半年的情況與第二季度類似,都是下降了個位數。那麼,為了彌補差距,是定價、市佔率增加還是推出新產品呢?其中還有其他元素嗎?
Sebastien Martel - Chief Financial Officer
Sebastien Martel - Chief Financial Officer
Well, it's a combination of factors. As I mentioned, the favorable product mix is going to be a factor. The less programs as well as another factor helping revenue. These would be the two big items that are, let's say, not volume related.
嗯,這是多種因素共同作用的結果。正如我所提到的,良好的產品組合將是一個因素。項目較少也是幫助收入的另一個因素。可以說,這是兩個與數量無關的大項目。
Jonathan Goldman - Analyst
Jonathan Goldman - Analyst
Okay. And maybe, Jose, could you comment on the level of new entrants in the industry now versus 2019, how elevated it is? And I guess this ties into the broader question of the earnings power of the business. If you look at the industry data, calendar '24 units are kind of exactly where they were in 2019. So do we have more room to grow unit wise in the industry? Or is it kind of stabilized in terms of volume? And then obviously, this year would be lower and it's just getting back to the $1.2 billion level.
好的。也許,Jose,您能否評論一下現在與 2019 年相比,該行業的新進入者的水平提高了多少?我想這與企業獲利能力這個更廣泛的問題有關。如果你查看行業數據,你會發現 24 年曆單位的數量與 2019 年的數量基本相同。那麼,我們在產業中是否還有更多的成長空間?或者從數量上來說已經比較穩定了?顯然,今年的數字會更低,剛回到 12 億美元的水平。
Jose Boisjoli - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer
Jose Boisjoli - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer
New entrant numbers in Q2 were at 23%, same, same level than pre-COVID. And it seems that we're back to where we were before the COVID bubble. I think in terms of industry, I answered the -- what we're planning for the industry. I think what maybe additional and for you is the trend that we send in the last few quarter is continuing.
第二季新進者數為 23%,與疫情前持平。看來我們又回到了新冠疫情泡沫之前的狀態。我認為就行業而言,我回答了——我們對該行業的規劃是什麼。我認為對您來說可能還需要補充的是,我們在過去幾季中呈現的趨勢仍在繼續。
Obviously, the inflation, the high financing rate, the uncertainty put some pressure on the lower income customers, and we see the premium selling well versus the value product, then Spark and Ryker are below traditional watercraft and below traditional fuel vehicle and in the side by side, the premium sell well, the value is down. utilities sell well and their export is down.
顯然,通貨膨脹、高融資利率、不確定性給低收入客戶帶來了一些壓力,我們看到高端產品的銷量優於價值產品,而 Spark 和 Ryker 的銷量低於傳統船舶和傳統燃油汽車,並且高端產品的銷量很好,而價值產品則下降。公用事業產品的銷售量很好,而其出口卻下降。
Then the same trend that we saw in the last two quarters, but we are well positioned because, as you know, we're better to -- in the high-end product than the entry level and with the new Defender and the utility going up, we are -- timing could not be better.
這與過去兩季我們看到的趨勢相同,但我們處於有利地位,因為如你所知,我們在高端產品方面比入門級產品更勝一籌,而且隨著新款 Defender 和實用功能的提升,我們的時機再好不過了。
Jonathan Goldman - Analyst
Jonathan Goldman - Analyst
Okay. That makes sense. And I guess just following up on that, -- do you think the industry is larger today in terms of units than it was in 2019. If you exclude motorcycles, I guess, there was about 1.2 billion units sold in 2019. And in a normalized environment, do you think we can exceed that volume in the industry totally? -- in North America?
好的。這很有道理。我想繼續問這個問題——您是否認為今天的行業單位數量比 2019 年更大。如果不包括摩托車,我估計 2019 年的銷量約為 12 億輛。在正常環境下,您認為我們能否完全超越北美產業的銷售量?
Jose Boisjoli - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer
Jose Boisjoli - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer
Side-by-side, have grown over the last few years and it continues to grow. And what is interesting is growing in North America, but is growing even more in some international markets. The number are still obviously lower than North America, but the growth is very good. And I think there is a place to continue to grow or the industry will continue to grow in the side-by-side business.
在過去的幾年中,我們並肩成長,並且持續成長。有趣的是,北美市場正在成長,但一些國際市場的成長速度更快。雖然數量仍明顯低於北美,但成長非常好。我認為並行業務還有繼續成長的空間,或者說這個產業會繼續成長。
Operator
Operator
There are no further questions at this time. I will now turn the call over to Mr. Deschenes for closing remarks.
目前沒有其他問題。現在我將把發言時間交給德斯切納斯先生,請他作最後發言。
Philippe Deschenes - Director-Investor Relations
Philippe Deschenes - Director-Investor Relations
Thank you, Joel, and thanks, everyone, for joining us this morning and for your interest in BRP. Before we go, now that we will be hosting an Analyst and Investor Day on October 8 and 9 in Valcore. See on the lookout for more detail. Thanks again, everyone, and have a good day.
謝謝你,喬爾,也謝謝大家今天早上加入我們並對 BRP 感興趣。在我們離開之前,我們將於 10 月 8 日和 9 日在 Valcore 舉辦分析師和投資者日。請參閱監視以了解更多詳細資訊。再次感謝大家,祝福大家有美好的一天。
Operator
Operator
Ladies and gentlemen, this concludes your conference call for today. We thank you for participating and ask that you please disconnect your lines.
女士們、先生們,今天的電話會議到此結束。感謝您的參與,並請您斷開線路。