BRP Inc (DOOO) 2024 Q2 法說會逐字稿

Good morning, ladies and gentlemen, and welcome to the BRP Inc.'s FY '24 Second Quarter Results Conference Call. (Operator Instructions). I would now like to turn the meeting over to Mr. Philippe Deschenes.

Please go ahead, Mr. Deschenes.

Thank you, Julie. Good morning, and welcome to BRP's conference call for the second quarter of fiscal year '24. Joining me this morning are Jose Boisjoli, President and Chief Executive Officer and Sebastien Martel, Chief Financial Officer.

Before we move to the prepared remarks, I would like to remind everyone that certain forward-looking statements will be made during the call and that the actual results could differ from those implied in these statements. The forward-looking information is based on certain assumptions and is subject to risk and uncertainties, and I invite you to consult BRP's MD&A for a complete list of these.

Also during the call, reference will be made to supporting slides, and you can find the presentation on our website at brp.com under the Investor Relations section.

So with that, I'll turn the call over to Jose.

Thank you, Philippe. Good morning, everyone, and thank you for joining us. I am pleased to report that we have delivered a very solid quarter, driven by continued strength in consumer demand for our line-ups and the ongoing support of our dealer network. Solid execution of our plan led to an impressive market share gain and record result for a second quarter. Given this strong performance and our positive outlook for the rest of the year, we are increasing our normalized EPS guidance to a range of $12.35 to $12.85.

Let's turn to Slide 4 for our key financial highlights. Revenue reached $2.8 billion, up 14% from the previous year, driven by higher volume and pricing. Normalized EBITDA grew 13% to $473 million, and normalized EPS increased 9% to reach $3.21.

Turning to Slide 5 for a look at our Q2 retail performance. Our product portfolio continued to gain traction with consumers, leading to significant market share gain. In North America, our retail sales were up 41% compared to an industry that was up mid-teen percent. Given our retail performance, this imply that BRP accounted for most of the industry growth in the quarter. We were also very strong in international markets, with retail up 23% in EMEA, 36% in Latin America and 33% in Asia Pacific.

Looking more closely at the numbers, we see that demand for our product remained robust, despite ongoing macroeconomic concerns. We just had our strongest second quarter ever at retail, except for the first few months of COVID, where we experienced significant inventory depletion. Not only was our retail up 41%, but it was up 37% versus Q2 of fiscal year '20, showing continuous gain.

With this strong performance, we reached record market share for side-by-side, ATV and personal watercraft; all of this with retail incentive below pre-COVID levels. We believe those results are driven by the evolution of our customer profile over the last 4 years. The influx of new entrant remained high at 39%. We also continue to see high FICO score and the average household income from our customer survey is 40% higher than pre-COVID, at slightly above USD 160,000.

Those customers are looking for more high-end products, which explain our momentum in this category across our line-ups. Bottom line, the typical BRP product buyer remain in very good shape financially. This put us in a favorable position entering the second half of the year.

Turning to Slide 7 for an overview of key products introduced at our BRP Club held in Atlanta 2 weeks ago. This year's Club was one of the largest ever, with 5,300 total participants in-person and virtual. The highlight was the launch of the Can-Am Maverick R, our flagship model in the sport category. It brings a new dimension to riding with an industry-leading 240-horsepower engine, industry-first dual-clutch transmission, a unique suspension geometry, and lots of enhanced technology. With this new offering, we are well positioned to gain market share in the high-end sports side-by-side category.

But this was not the only product news, as shown on Slide 8. We improved our entry-level offering with the first major evolution of the highly successful Sea-Doo Spark since its introduction. We also launched many new side-by-side models, notably the Can-Am Defender XT HD7 as well as the Maverick X3 RS Turbo, the industry's most affordable mid-HP 72-inch wide side-by-side. These models offer a lot of value at price points that reach a wide range of consumers.

We also continued to push innovation in the premium segment, which has seen the fastest growth in recent years. We introduced a full range of high-end models, such as the Manitou Explore MAX 300 HP Pontoon with dual Rotax engine and the larger MAX Deck. The Sea-Doo RXP-X and RXT-X with 325 horsepower and the Sea-Doo Switch Cruise Limited. We also added a touchscreen with Apple CarPlay to our Spyders models.

These additions represent a historic level of product news, which will help us to gain more market share and grow our addressable market, while further improving our margin profile. All our new products were well received. The order process is ongoing, volume is as expected, and the mix is currently trending slightly better.

Now let's turn to Slide 9 for our Year-Round Products. Revenue were up 8%, reaching $1.5 billion, driven by strong shipment of side-by-side vehicle and ATVs. At retail, Can-Am side-by-side had its strongest Q2 ever, with retail up high 20% and solid growth in all segments and price categories. We also finished the season with a 6 point market share gain to reach the high 20% range in North America.

With this performance, we are very close to delivering on our M25 objective of reaching a 30% market share by the end of fiscal year '25; but of course, we will not stop there. Moreover, for the first time ever, Can-Am side-by-side reached the #1 position in Canada with a market share in the high 30%.

As for ATV, our retail was up mid-30%. This performance was notably driven by strong growth in the mid-cc segment, reflecting the success of our newly introduced mid-cc outlander platform. Also, ATV also closed its North American season with the strongest share gain in the industry, passing the 20% mark for the first time ever. We are pleased with the momentum of our off-road business and with recent product introduction, we are in a good position to continue outperforming the industry.

Looking at 3-wheeled vehicle. Retail was down high single digit compared to an industry that was up high-single-digit. While consumer interest remains high, the Ryker's retail performance was softer in the quarter. As seen across the industry, buyers of entry-level products are more hesitant to purchase at the moment. Meanwhile, the Spyder F3 and RT models, which are higher-end, had solid growth. With the upgrade on the model year '24, we are well positioned for next season.

Turning to Seasonal Products on Slide 10. Revenue were up 30%, reaching almost $900 million, driven by a higher volume of snowmobile and switch pontoon, as well as favorable pricing. Looking at our retail performance, we had a very strong quarter for personal watercraft, which retail up about 60%, again an easy comparable a year ago. Remember that we had limited product availability in the network during Q2 last year.

Still, this performance was exceptional from an historical perspective. In fact, our season-to-date retail is the strongest in the last 15 years. These results demonstrate the strength of our line-up and our ability to create new segments with models such as the WAKE, Fish and Explorer Pros. These products bring new entrants to the category, which drive industry growth.

And with our new product introduction for '24, we are well positioned to sustain our momentum. As for our Sea-Doo Switch, our retail was up over 200%, and we held the #3 position in the U.S. pontoon industry over the 3-month period ended in May. This is a great example of how we can disrupt category by developing market shipping product. Finally, for Snowmobile, we are currently in the off-season. We are confident for the peak season with a high level of units presold to consumers.

Moving on to Slide 11, with Powersports Parts, Accessories and Apparel and OEM Engines. Revenue were up 14% to $294 million. We continue to benefit from our growing product portfolio and vehicle fleet in use, which led to higher replacement parts and accessory sales driven by the LinQ ecosystem. We expect a softer second half than originally planned for our PA&A business as we anticipate dealer to destock inventory mainly for the Sea-Doo Pontoon and 3-wheeled vehicle line-ups.

Looking at our recent acquisition. A key highlight was the introduction of Pinion Motor Gearbox Unit, commonly called MGU, which combines a full power electric bicycle motor and our industry-leading gearbox in 1 compact package. This promising technology got excellent review following its introduction in June, notably winning the prestigious EUROBIKE gold award in Frankfurt.

Now moving to Marine on Slide 12. Revenue were down 5% to $125 million, reflecting a lower volume of boat shipments. The revenue decrease is due to the slower-than-expected production ramp-up of the new Manitou platform, mainly because of a supplier issue for an aesthetic component, which limited product availability. This issue has now been resolved.

Looking at retail sales. From an industry perspective, the boat category has seen weaker demand so far this year. Demand was affected by higher financing costs and poor weather in many markets, especially in the Great Lakes region, which is key for both Alumacraft and Manitou.

In addition, our retail performance was impacted by the supply issue for Manitou, and we still had lapping months retailing welded boat for Alumacraft. For Quintrex, retail was down in line with the industry in Australia. Given the slower production ramp-up for Manitou and softer industry trends in the boating sector, we decided to realign our plan for this year, focusing on season '24. While the year has not unfold according to plan, we are encouraged by consumer reaction to the new boats, and we remain confident about our strategy for the Marine business.

With that, I turn the call over to Sebastien.

Thank you, Jose, and good morning, everyone. We once again delivered solid results in the second quarter, driven by robust top line growth, fueled by the sustained strong demand for Powersport lineups, which continues to translate in market share gain and growing momentum with our dealer network. Our focus on efficiency also paid dividends as we ended the quarter with lower-than-anticipated turbulence costs and operating expenses. These elements, combined with stronger-than-expected revenue growth allowed us to offset inefficiencies on the Marine side to deliver results slightly ahead of plan.

Our revenues for the quarter were up 14% versus last year, ending at $2.8 billion. We generated $698 million of gross profits, representing a margin of 25.1%, up 40 basis points from last year, primarily driven by the favorable impact of pricing net of cost inflation and lower turbulence costs as we operated in a more normal production environment.

These benefits were partly offset by; inefficiencies related to the Marine businesses, increase in sales programs which remained below pre-COVID levels, higher interest rate on floorplan financing, and unfavorable foreign exchange rate variations, which impacted margins by 180 basis points in the quarter.

Continuing down the P&L, we generated normalized EBITDA for the quarter of $473 million, representing a margin of 17%. Our normalized net income reached $255 million, resulting in a normalized earnings per share of $3.21, up 9% versus last year. Our free cash flow generation was also strong at $387 million, driven by a strong operational performance and positive working capital contribution.

With a healthy balance sheet and the expectation for future cash generation in the back half of the year, we are well positioned to continue investing in growth projects for the business while retaining the financial flexibility to continue returning capital to shareholders.

Moving to Slide 15 for an update on dealer inventory. Our network inventory is in a good position, striking the right balance between having sufficient product availability, all the while operating more efficiently with a lower number of days of inventory compared to historical levels. In fact, our network inventory is only up 24% versus pre-COVID, while our retail volumes have grown 49% over that period, driven by industry growth; the addition of a new product line, the Sea-Doo Switch; and more importantly, significant market share gains.

We still have opportunities to further improve availability on ORV while continuing to work through the remaining inventory for summer products as the season is winding down. Looking ahead, we will continue to diligently manage our network inventory to ensure that we are well positioned to seize retail opportunities while continuing to operate more efficiently to limit the cost of inventory for both us and our dealers.

Turning to Slide 16 for an update on our guidance. We are entering the second half of the year in a strong position, having delivered strong financial results and retail performance in H1. With just 5 months remaining in the fiscal year, we are well positioned to deliver on our guidance, which calls for a solid year for Year-Round and Seasonal products. Our lineups are driving strong consumer demand and the positive response to our recent product launches reinforce our confidence in our ability to sustain our market share momentum in H2.

The competitive and promotional environments remain in line with our initial expectations and we now have better visibility into our shipment plans, thanks to a strong booking of pre-sold units in snowmobile and as we will be filling initial dealer orders for multiple new products we just introduced.

As such, we are comfortable reaffirming our Year-Round and Seasonal products revenue guidance ranges. As for Powersports PA&A and OEM Engines, we are adjusting our guidance to reflect softer trends in accessory orders as dealers are working through more elevated levels of inventory in the network.

Similarly for Marine, we are revising our guidance to incorporate our decision to realign our shipment plans for the year to focus on positioning the business for a solid season '24. Following these adjustments, we expect our revenues to grow between 7% and 10% for the year.

Continuing down the P&L, since our last guidance, the supply chain environment continued to improve. Consequently, we now anticipate incurring less turbulence cost than initially projected. This adjustment and an improved product mix translates into additional 50 basis point improvement in our gross profit margin for the year. Combined with our better-than-expected Q2 results, this margin benefit offsets the impact of lower-than-anticipated shipments for PA&A and Marine.

Therefore, we are reaffirming our normalized EBITDA guidance with a solid growth of up 9% to 13%. This, when coupled with the benefit of a lower share count resulting from the buybacks we have completed at this point, yields a normalized EPS guidance of $12.35 to $12.85.

Additionally, within the context of our realigned Marine plan for the year, we have decided to postpone our boat capacity expansion in Mexico by 12 months. This strategic decision, combined with timing of investments in other projects, allowed us to reduce our CapEx guidance by $100 million, now ranging from $650 million to $700 million. This CapEx reduction is expected to further reinforce our already robust free cash flow generation for the year.

Finally, before turning the call back to Jose, I want to highlight a couple of elements. First, as evidenced in our normalized EPS guidance bridge on Slide 17, the adjustment in our Marine plan for the year has a negative impact of $0.60 on our guidance. Despite this impact, our capacity to elevate our normalized EPS guidance underscores the resilience of our diversified portfolio and our ability to deliver operational efficiency.

Furthermore, as we strategically position our Marine business for a strong season '24, you can appreciate that a successful year for that segment, coupled with continued momentum in Powersport could yield substantial benefits for our results in fiscal '25. Secondly, our guidance calls for a very strong second half of the year, as you can see on Slide 18. Although our top line growth may appear limited, I would like to remind you that we are lapping a period in which we had about $1 billion worth of inventory replenishment, making it a difficult comparable.

Nevertheless, our results for the second half of the year are expected to be very strong from a historical perspective, reflecting the solid momentum of our Powersport portfolio and the underlying strength of the demand for our products. In terms of cadence, we expect to generate roughly 45% of the remaining normalized EBITDA for the year in Q3, resulting, as usual, in Q4 being our strongest quarter for the year.

On that, I will turn the call back to Jose.

Thank you, Sebastien. I am pleased with our performance so far in fiscal '24 as we continue to significantly outperform the industry. Our strategy is simple, we focus on delivering industry-leading innovation across a diversified product portfolio, and we team up with the best dealers. This give us access to a wide range of customer base across all markets and regions.

Our ability to execute has delivered exceptional results over the past 8 years, as you can see on Slide 20. We have gained market share almost every quarter during that period, and we are now the #1 OEM by a wide range -- by a wide margin in terms of average unit retail per dealers.

Looking ahead, we will continue to execute that strategy. The record level of new products introduced at Club position us well to continue our growth and remain the industry leader. As for the remainder of the year, we expect demand for our products to continue driving our market share momentum, and we will stay focused on executing and optimizing efficiencies to deliver a record year in terms of top and bottom lines.

In closing, I want to thank all our employees for another strong performance this quarter. I also acknowledge the support of our dealers who made us the leading OEM in the industry.

On that note, I turn the call over to the operator for questions.

(Operator Instructions) Your first question comes from Mark Petrie from CIBC.

I wanted to ask first just on the sort of competitive dynamics in the industry. Obviously, there's a healthy rebound in sales volumes versus sort of constraints last year. But I guess, just commentary on sort of the competitive dynamics. And then I know the sales programs are higher, but still below pre-pandemic levels. So is that just higher than what you sort of initially embedded in guidance or is it just higher from last year?

I'll take the question on the sales program. They are trending in line with our expectations. Yes, the floorplan cost is higher because of interest rates are higher. But from a retail incentive point of view, we are trending according to plan. You might recall that we said we would expect about a 200 basis point headwind coming from retail incentives this year, and that is currently the assumption we're working with. So no changes there.

On the other question, Mark, there is not much change in the dynamic into the industry. All OEMs are getting better with the supply chain. And basically, what I believe make us different than the others is our focus on technology and new product and pushing novelty, innovation. And on top, what is positive and we see more now the stability, but the customers' profile.

As I mentioned in my remarks, the household income of our customer have increased by 40% since pre-COVID. And those customers are shopping for high-end product, where we are good at. And I think no big change in the dynamic of the industry with the other OEM. But I think what make us different is what we've been good at, pushing innovation, technology and coming out with new products in new segments and more premium products.

Okay. And I wanted to ask about sort of the strength across the price points. I mean you called out Ryker as sort of underperforming relative to Spyder. But curious if that's also the case in PWCs, where, obviously, you have a range across price points. Is that the same dynamic?

It's a bit different. Those 2 products are entry-level products, but the Ryker customer is more, I would say, a mid-range household income. Sometimes, those customers are definitely more concerned with the macroeconomic and the inflation and all this. The watercraft, Spark customer is more high household income. It's people who have typically a cottage on the river, the lake, and they buy 2 watercrafts for their family. Then, it's a different profile; same type of product, entry-level, but different profile in customers.

Okay, understood. And then, maybe just one last one. Seb, you mentioned the supply chain is sort of a 50 basis point tailwind in the second half. Is there still an opportunity for this to be a tailwind in next fiscal year or will you be lapping stability by that point?

Obviously, this year, we are getting a huge benefit from a better supply chain. And I'd say also the teams are very focused on coming back to more normal operations, and they've outperformed our expectation. We have solid people running all our plants. And so most of the benefit is going to happen this year. I might expect a bit of a benefit next year, but a significant part is being materialized, which is a good news this year.

Your next question comes from Robin Farley from UBS.

I wanted to ask a little bit more about the sales promos that you highlighted kind of being tied to interest rates that partially offset some of the margin improvement. So can you give us some color around the mix of your buyers that are paying cash versus financing and how that kind of compares to pre-COVID?

When we look at the overall trends from our financing partners, there is not a significant change in terms of proportion of who's financing versus who's paying cash. So we're still in the range of -- with our partners about 30%. But we know that dealers have arrangements with their local credit unions and banks and another 30% is being done through retail financing there as well. So about 60% to 65% is done through retail financing, the other is cash.

But we are seeing higher FICO scores versus pre-COVID. And that obviously is being highlighted, as Jose said, through the average household incomes that are higher as well. But the acceptance rates are in line with pre-COVID and with COVID. And we don't feel that our retail partners have tightened on the credit as well.

And then just one follow-up. You talked about the higher demand, your higher customer income level and obviously a lot of demand at the higher end. Can you talk a little bit about what's happening at the entry level, and whether it is a share shift to maybe some lower-priced OEMs, some other imported product? Or is it -- do you think just overall, just less entry level? In other words, is it more of a share issue or a size of the pie issue at the more entry level?

I think it's a -- obviously, the inflation that we've been through in the last 18 months and the pressure on the macroeconomic and the uncertainty is scary for us, people who are buying entry-level product, could be scary. But our job is to make sure that we are competitive in the entry level and we're focusing a lot on the premium because that's where we shine. But we still have Sea-Doo Spark and Ski-Doo MXZ NEO below $7,000.

We have many, many side-by-side model in Commander and Maverick between $13,000 and $16,000, and the Switch, which is an entry-level pontoon at below $24,000. Then what we're trying to do is always keep good offering in the value product and pushing, again, technology and innovation for the high-end product. Then we want to have the wide portfolio of product to make sure that we please everybody. Positive thing, like I've said before on the previous question, is the trend of the customer change in the last few years, and it's benefiting us right now.

Your next question comes from James Hardiman from Citi.

I wanted to dig into the inventory situation a little bit. Obviously, you talked about your inventory being up 24% versus 49% increase in retail. I guess -- and it sounds like you're comfortable with where you are. I guess, why is that? And ultimately, why is there not a greater opportunity to replenish inventories?

And then, I guess sort of a second part of that question. In the prepared remarks, you talked about how some dealers were working through elevated levels of inventory. It sounds like it's not your inventory which is elevated, but help us sort of connect those 2 comments?

Well, we've always said that coming out of the pandemic, we wanted to run our dealer networks with less inventory. We've set up, a lot of OEMs have set up as well and dealers say it as well. And so we've been very focused on making sure that we have enough inventory so that the dealers have the right product offering when the consumer walks in and they can close the sale rapidly and get the unit to the consumer rapidly.

We also have flexibility in our ability to quickly deliver units to the dealers if they need them. And so, our goal is to make sure that we have that right level. And so I'm actually happy to see that, again, dealers are saying that they have the right level of inventory. They're able to meet consumer demand, and we're managing it diligently.

I mean, we are cognizant as well that interest rates are higher. So why put more inventory in the network, create more costs for us, more costs for the dealer network if we don't need it. Ultimately, what we are driving for with the dealer network is not to create a great pressure where they're focused on our units because they have them in the yard, but because they're making more profit selling our units, and one way of making more profits is by having the right level of inventory so that they don't pay unnecessary floorplan.

Just maybe to add to Sebastien's, I just came back from a club where we had many discussions about this with dealers. For sure, if you survey a dealer, they will tell you they have too much inventory, but they'd look at it in dollars. And we look at it in units. And again, I said it in the remarks, but our inventory level right now in the network is 24% higher than pre-COVID, but our retail is 50% higher than pre-COVID, plus you have higher-end product, and you had all the price increase that we have done in the last 4 years.

Then for sure the dealer, when they look at it in dollars, they don't like it with the interest rate. But if they want to support the growth in retail and be able to supply to the demand, this inventory is needed, and we look at it in number of days, and we are below pre-COVID.

Got it. That's helpful. And just to clarify, the $1 billion headwind that you're lapping against in the second half of last year, that's versus 0 this year's second half presumably or I guess, maybe put a better way the days on hand, you expect to stay pretty constant as we move forward, maybe not quite a one-to-one wholesale to retail because retail is obviously growing. But is there any offset to that $1 billion in the second half of this year versus the second half of last year or is your retail going to have to grow by that much more just to get to sort of flattish sales?

Well, if you look at the -- what the implied growth is for the back half of the year, obviously, there is that inventory replenishment that we did last year. About 60% of that was for Seasonal products because of timing of shipments for personal watercraft and Switch. But when you look at the implied growth for Year-Round products, based on the guidance, you're talking about a growth of 11% to 16% growth.

That obviously comes from the market share gains we've experienced over the last few years, the recently introduced products that we've done at the club, obviously better pricing, better mix as well, and also by strong deliveries of ATVs as we've launched a brand-new platform. But I'll remind you that in the last 3 years, we've gained 3 points of market share in side-by-side. And obviously, that momentum is fueling wholesale delivery and retail deliveries as well.

Your next question comes from Xian Siew from BNP Paribas.

Maybe first on the $0.80 better than 90 days ago in terms of the raise to guidance, can you maybe disaggregate between mix, turbulence cost and operating expenses? And then, maybe within that mix improvement, like what do you think is driving that, and how much do you think that continues into, let's say, like next year? Like, does mix continue to be a positive driver for the next couple of years?

Yes. Well, about 40% of the $0.80 adjustment comes from mix. As Jose alluded to in his prepared remarks, we are seeing a healthy -- a financially healthier customer buying our product. These customers are looking for high-end products. We've recently launched the Maverick R, well, call it the next level in technology for the sports side-by-side. And that obviously is driving very strong margins.

But from a utility point of view as well, the customers are asking for fully enclosed side-by-side with HVAC. And we've made adjustments in our production capacity in order to be able to deliver these units and meet customer demand, and that obviously is helping the mix favorably.

Okay, got it. And then maybe on Seasonal, you did better than the Street expectations, but guidance was kind of held for the year. Were there any shifts to consider, and are there any kind of margin impacts we should think about?

No, the -- we were expecting a very strong second quarter for Seasonal products due to better deliveries of personal watercraft and Sea-Doo Switch. Again, last year, because of supply chain, it was a tough quarter. So now things are back to normal seasonal patterns. That obviously is a big plus. And so the implied revenue decline in the back half of the year is really mainly related to the timing of deliveries compared to last year.

But, all in all, we're very happy with the season we had on Seasonal, Sea-Doo Switch with the first real year of deliveries. Obviously, the demand was very good, and the performance of the Switch was also strong from a retail point of view and from an industry point of view as well. But nothing to highlight specifically other than that.

Your next question comes from Fred Wightman with Wolfe Research.

I just wanted to come back to the dealer inventory number, and I totally get that it's below the retail share performance. But in the past, you guys have given sort of a bridge between Seasonal products and then also Year-Round products. Can you give us an update on sort of where the dealer inventory levels for both of those categories stand today, either on a year-over-year basis or next to '19, however you want to talk about it?

Well, from a -- when I look at the overall inventory position, what I'd say is for Year-Round products, we are comfortable with the inventory we have for both ATV as we've started shipping the new model. For side-by-side, as I said, we have opportunities to increase deliveries, especially on the utility full enclosure cabins. Side-by-side, that's a product that's in high demand. Spyder, very strong on the traditional Spyder. We're good there. We have a bit more Rykers, and that obviously will -- we've put a plan in place to make sure that we get through that inventory in the next quarter.

From a seasonal point of view, we finished the season where personal watercraft is going to finish in a month. Very happy with the season that we had. Good levels of inventory coming out of that season. And the Sea-Doo Switch, strong season in some markets. The Midwest was a bit softer than what we were expecting. So we have a bit of inventory there that we are working through. And we've put promotions as well in those regions to make sure we get that model year '23s retail and get ready for model year '24.

Okay. And then just to follow-up on sort of the marine business. I mean, you guys are cutting the outlook, you're delaying or deferring some of the capacity expansion. It's just a pretty big change versus a couple of months ago. So can you just give us maybe an industry lay of the land as far as what changed, and maybe why you think it was so much different than sort of the -- what seems like solid demand for Year-Round?

If you talk about the industry, obviously, the weather was not the best. We didn't had the best summer to start with. After that, many customers finance their boat 15 to 20 years, which is a very long period. And obviously, the interest rate climbed over the last 18 months affected or as people delayed. Then when you have a combination of interest rate going up in the summer that weather is also, some customers prefer to delay their purchase, and this is for the industry.

For us, what happened and you know the story. I mean, I don't want to talk too much about it, but we had -- we were a victim of the cyber-attack last fall. The operation in Marine was the last to be reintegrated. After that, we had that supplier difficulty. And when we started to really ramp up with good volume, the production in May, dealers were already have high inventory of other brands. And at the end of the day, we were pushing too much. Then, we decided to slow down for season '23 and refocus everything on season '24.

Why we are happy overall is, first, the product is well received. The product that we shipped in season '23. We have introduced the dual engine Manitou that was very well received by the dealers at Club 2 weeks ago. The factory is now up and running, and we are re-engaging the dealer and realigning all this for season '24. Then it's a question of all this. And obviously, the factory in Mexico, we pushed by 1 year. We've lost basically a season because of the industry and our -- we were behind our plan. And this was just a logic move to do.

Your next question comes from Cameron Doerksen from National Bank Financial.

Just trying to get maybe a little bit better handle on what you're seeing in the retail. I mean, obviously, it's still very strong for you. But I just wonder if you can maybe talk about how retail kind of performed through the quarter? Was it fairly steady throughout? And then what have you seen so far, I guess, in August? I mean, obviously, you're facing a much tougher comp in your fiscal Q3. But maybe you can just talk about retail trends so far in the third quarter.

On the retail, as you -- if we look at the year, retail was soft in February and March, but picked up very good in April and continued through the whole summer. And I know that -- some of you were concerned about the model year '22, 3-wheeled and watercraft, but we've been able to sell most of them, and we're very happy the way the season unfolds.

For the third quarter or what is our expectation, and I don't want to go in too much detail and get into the habit of providing guidance every quarter for what's coming. But overall, we are in a good position for the second half because on the off-road, we have the new Maverick R.

We have the additional Defender entry-level product, the additional entry-level product on the X3. And when I say entry-level product in the side-by-side category, which is high-end. We have the ATV mid-cc platform that is extremely well received. And the Snowmobile line-up, as we've said, about half of our production is already pre-sold and we feel very good about off-road and Snowmobile.

Obviously, you can expect in H2, lower retail for watercraft and 3-wheeled because last year we shipped the 22 in Q3. Then when we look at the overall, we are planning the industry to be flattish. And us, when you consider all the product line, some reduction on watercraft and 3-wheel and an increase in off-road and snow. We're targeting to be around mid-single-digit growth for H2.

Okay. No, that's very helpful. And just secondly, just maybe switching gears, just want to talk a little bit about the EV rollout, I guess, at the Club, you'd kind of described that the final product that you've going to introduce on the electric side is going to maybe be delayed by about a year. And there's been some, I guess, challenges in developing the technology. Can you maybe just talk a bit about what the challenges are that you're facing there? And just how the EV rollout and the development is going?

Yes. But first, Cameron, I would like to remind you that we're developing our own technology and we're developing our own battery pack, motor and inverter, charger, software, and we believe by doing this all by ourselves, we will be a better integration and performance than buying components that you need to put together, and it will be more cost-effective.

And doing this, it's about people and supplier working with supplier. Then, this is going on. There is overall some delay, but it's not -- we had planned for some delay in some areas, but -- and I just want to remind you that last year when we disclosed the rise in the 2-wheeler motorcycle, we said to the dealer that the product would be available in 2024. And some dealers, because we had some prospect dealer mainly from Europe in Atlanta, wanted to see who is BRP, what are the rest of the line-up?

And we wanted to be very clear with the dealers. And we could had decided to show the spec, the prices, the allocation and our plan for network fulfillment. But we felt it was too much information against the competition. And we said very clearly all the details will be unveiled at next summer and delivery for both the Rise and the 2-wheel will happen in the fall of 2024. Then we're not delaying by 1 year. You could debate some were expecting to have it earlier in the summer, but we are basically overall on plan.

Your next question comes from Craig Kennison from Baird.

It's been a good call. I wanted to ask on the credit side. Do you have an understanding or a read on the percentage of your buyers that are exposed to student loan repayments in the U.S.?

No. I know it's been on the news feeds recently, changes through student loans. But, no, we don't have that visibility, Craig, what percentage have outstanding loans.

Okay. And then maybe just then said more broadly. I'm wondering if there's a way to measure affordability in terms of monthly payments, if you look at a similar unit this year versus maybe pre-pandemic, how much more expensive is it per month relative to like the income of your consumer? And do you see that consumer getting pinched in the climate that we have today?

Yes. I will give you an example of the Sea-Doo Switch because we're expecting the question and obviously for ourself to better understand the dynamic. But many of the buyer who by boat finance 15 to 20 years. And if you take a Sea-Doo Switch and we took a model Switch for 21 feet, if you were financing, and again, the rate could vary depending of your score, but high level, if you were financing a Sea-Doo Switch in Jan '22, your rate was 7%. If you were financing your Switch in Jan '23, this year, your rate was 8.8%. And in August, your rate was close to 12%.

And the difference between, let's say, Jan '22, it was around $350 and it was $100 more in August '23. Then you can debate $100 for someone who really want a product, some will justify it. But when you commit for 15 or 20 years, it's a long payment. And I think the rate increased so much in the last 12 months that some customers are reflecting if they will buy or not. And that's what affected, I believe, the boat industry.

That's a really helpful example, thank you.

Your next question comes from Martin Landry from Stifel.

Maybe just a follow-up to that. The Powersports industry has been very resilient when you compare it to the boating industry and also when you compare it to the RV industry. And is that resilience just related to price points? Is that it? Is that the main explanation why the powersports industry is not seeing much sign of weakness versus other industries?

But the big difference between Powersports and Marine is in Powersports, typically, the people who finance will be 3 to 5 years. Then your commitment is shorter. And the other thing is the OEM are -- it's easier for the OEM to subsidize or to do a sales program to support the customers. And I gave you the example for us. Today, we have -- depending on the product line for model year '23, we have some offer who vary from 2% to 4% for 36 months to 60 months.

And this is very different than the example I gave into the Marine business, a boat where, obviously, the rate is higher, the period is higher, and it's more difficult for the OEM to justify the subsidizing. And I think this is a big difference between the 2 industries.

And Martin, if I could add one extra element there. If we look at what has happened to MSRPs in the last, well call it the last 4 years since the onset of COVID, we saw much higher increases in MSRP in the Marine and the RV sector than we've seen in the Powersports sector. And I'll just give you an example. If I look at personal watercraft, model year '20 to model year '24, we've increased pricing by 17.4% in the U.S., whereas the boating industry has increased pricing by over 40%. And so, that obviously makes the ticket item much higher for Marine than for Powersports. And I think that's one factor that's also helping the Powersport industry.

Okay, that's good color. That's helpful. And maybe on changing gears to your guidance, your back half guidance implies strong EBITDA margins, I think, higher than 18% according to our map. And Sebastien, you touched in your opening remarks, heading into fiscal '25 with strong momentum. Just trying to understand those strong margins in the back half. Is there a seasonal tailwind here? Or can these higher margins be sustainable long-term?

Well, customarily, we have usually higher margins in the back half of the year. Q3 is a quarter where we have strong margins. The mix is very strong in Snowmobile. And also we're expecting very strong mix in side-by-side. And as I said, the teams are, and I like it, the teams are overperforming from an operations point of view and from a procurement point of view, which is also driving good savings, which will be there next year.

And as you know, next year is our M25 anniversary date, and so where we have ambitious financial objectives, and our plans are still very much in line with the M25 objective. When you look at what we have delivered since we've done our investor meeting last June or last year, on the side-by-side side, we are just shy of that 30% market share objective that we had given ourselves and especially with the recent product introductions, that will obviously drive continued market share gains.

ATV, we finished very strong this season with 20% market share, and there's going to be continued momentum as we've just started delivering the new platform. We finished the season with record market share in Snowmobile and personal watercraft. So that obviously bodes well for next year. Sea-Doo Switch, we said we want this to be a $500 million business. This year, we will be at $500 million. So again, continuation next year.

So everything in Powersport is in line and even better than our plan. And again, if I want to put things into perspective, if you look at the last 12 months, we've gained about 6 points of market share in the Powersport industry. And every point of market share we gain is about $190 million of revenue. And so, with the recent product introductions, the momentum, the brand, the dealer engagement, we are well positioned for next year.

Marine, softer than expected, but we are obviously making the necessary steps to position it well for next year. The lean is going very well, as I mentioned. The modular design is paying off, and we have a greater proportion of vehicles being produced in Mexico. So all in all, if the industry remains the same and consumer demand is maintained, we feel very comfortable with our plans for next year, I must say.

Your next question comes from Jaime Katz from Morningstar.

I hope you can just dissect your outlook on gross margin a little bit more, just on the ability to take pricing, the premiumization of the mix? And then how much more of the logistics tailwinds are left to help hold that metric up?

Yes. Obviously, we had a very good gross margin in the second quarter. When I look at the puts and takes of the margin, obviously, pricing, net of inflation, was a big driver. That was a tailwind of 170 basis points, offset by programs. We said our expectation for the year was 200 basis point headwind. This quarter was 170 basis point. Floorplan costs are higher as well. That's a headwind of 100 basis points.

And in terms of turbulence, we're looking at 250 basis point tailwind. Big tailwind in Q1, big tailwind in Q2. That's going to taper down in Q3 and Q4, as even last year Q4, we saw benefits from turbulence costs. But overall, in line with our -- in our plan plus adjustments we've made in the guidance. And as we mentioned, we had FX, which was a headwind for a -- 180 basis points in the quarter. So Obviously, strong gross margin, strong EBITDA margin driven by, again, the great mix, product that command these margins and as well a great operational efficiency from the teams.

And then, are there any inefficiencies that will stem from pushing the facility out that will weigh on gross margin next year? The building -- the build-out of that marine facility?

Not significant. When you look at the cost to build a plant, yes, there are some operating expenses associated with it. but it's -- when you look in the grand scheme of things, not that material.

Your next question comes from Joe Altobello from Raymond James.

Just want to go back to your comments regarding M25. You mentioned Powersports is trending well, Marine not so much. And you mentioned you're pushing back capacity expansion by 12 months. Is it safe to assume that we should think about the marine M25 target is getting pushed back a year as well? And has your long-term outlook for that segment changed at all?

Yes. If you remember, in the M25, we were targeting by the end of fiscal year '25 to be at $1 billion. It's too early to say if we -- what will happen next year. I think we need to wait to see how the industry will unfold beginning of the year, the boat show and all this.

But, for me, this is short-term, the -- for the Marine, the vision that we have is working. It's just a matter of execution this year, and we will realign for next year then. I think it's too early for the $1 billion in M25 or fiscal year '25 for Marine, but it don't change the overall picture like Sebastien described for the overall BRP M25 objective next year.

Okay, that's helpful. And maybe just a quick question for Seb. I wanted to better understand how you see overall gross margins versus OpEx is playing out this year. I think the prior expectation was gross margins would be up 50 basis points, OpEx up 50 basis points, so they sort of offset. But it sounds like that's still the case on the gross margin line, but we're looking to see maybe some lower -- or less of an increase in OpEx. So I'm curious if I have that right, and where that's coming from.

Yes. The initial estimate when we issued guidance was that we'd get a tailwind on gross margin of 50, and we'd get a headwind on OpEx of 50. So net flat EBITDA margin year-over-year at 17%. Now with the revised numbers, gross margin, it will be a tailwind of about 100 basis points, and we'd get the tailwind from OpEx of 50. So -- pardon?

Yes. And, so that would be for this year, delivering strong EBITDA margin this year.

Your next question comes from Luke Hannan from Canaccord.

I'll start off with a quick one, Sebastien. I believe you said last quarter that for the year, you expected a working capital tailwind of roughly $400 million. I may have missed it if you mentioned it earlier in the call, but do you still expect to see that level of tailwind for the year?

Yes. We've generated strong cash flow -- free cash flow since the beginning of the year, over $500 million for the first 6 months, total free cash flow, with minimal working capital benefits. As I said, we're still running with higher levels of inventory, I will call it safety stock. But obviously, with the good results that we're seeing from the supply chain turbulence, the expectation is that we will be able to achieve our $400 million working capital benefit at the end of the year.

Okay. And then, a higher-level question here. I appreciate the commentary earlier in the call, Jose, about the market share that you've been able to gain in SSV and particularly, in Canada. But I guess just taking a step back and from a higher level, structurally, when it comes to the competitive dynamics or anything else inherent to that product line specifically? Is there any reason why longer term, you wouldn't be able to achieve a market share in SSV similar to what you have right now in Snowmobiles and personal watercraft?

There is no reason. We're going step by step. On the M25, the objective was to reach 30% market share. We're almost there and then we will pass that 30% next year. And after that, with the momentum that we have and the product innovation, there is -- we will not stop there, like I said in my prepared remarks.

And for us, it's always a bet. Like I said, some investors -- many investors are asking, why are you gaining so much versus others that are not able? But as we said in 2015, when we introduced the Defender, we wanted to convey a strong message about our commitment in the side-by-side industry.

And that's where we committed of a new model every 6 months for the next 4 years. And that message convinced many dealers to convert more space to BRP. And with our capacity to come out with innovative product pushing technology, pushing design, combined with that commitment, it was like a big wheel that did start in motion. And today, the wheel is really in motion.

And I believe that with our continued push on product and helping the dealers and working with the dealers to continue to grow, this is what explains the success. Then definitely, I will not comment this morning about any specific number for any dates, but I can assure you we'll not stop at 30%.

Your next question comes from Brian Morrison from TD Securities.

I have one further question to clarify, though. Seb you mentioned in Slide 18, in your prepared comments that you're lapping H2 fiscal '23. There's $1 billion of inventory replenishment. How much of that -- how much was inventory replenishment revenues in fiscal '23? How much do you estimate will be in fiscal 2024? And how much is there to go in the second half? I understand that retail unit sales are well excess still of the increase in inventory at retail?

As of today, Brian, I'd say we're pretty much done on inventory replenishment. Obviously, there's going to be some seasonal elements where we might find, okay, there's Snowmobile that's going to be there at Q3 more than last year. But from an overall business point of view, their inventory replenishment is not a tailwind for us. Growth in inventory will come with growth in market share or growth in industry, but not from putting more units at the dealership.

Okay. And how much replenishment was there this year and last?

Well, last year was $1 billion. We probably did $250 million at the beginning of this year. And in fiscal year '23, I'd have to check, but not that significant. Probably same in this year, yes. But obviously, the growth was in the second half of last year.

Right. And then, on Slide 17, you said there's lower shipments of PAC primarily due to Sea-Doo pontoon. Can you just reconcile that with the strength of the Switch? Was it just a pre-build because the product was in its infancy last year?

Well, last year, as you know, we under-delivered in terms of Sea-Doo Switch pontoons. And so with dealers, we under-delivered units, but we delivered dealers that ordered the parts and accessories. And so they had quite a bit of inventory on hand. And so this year, they were able to cycle through their inventory, get it to the dealers, but they still have a bit more inventory. And so dealer levels are higher from a PA&A side. And so, they will be adjusting their dealer inventory and, therefore, ordering less from us.

Okay, simply timing.

Your next question comes from Tristan Thomas-Martin from BMO Capital Markets.

Just one question for me. How are dealers approaching holding inventory or maybe ordering over their off-season is any different, given how elevated floorplan costs are?

It's a bit funny. If you talk -- I was again with Powersport dealers and Marine dealer 2 weeks ago. And if you talk to dealer, like I said in the question before, they don't like the inventory in dollars and the interest. But at the same time, when we take an order, it's like a discussion between your growth and what you're planning, and the -- basically orders in line with our expectation.

That's why we said the volume is in line with our expectation, but with a richer mix. Then it's a bit funny. The Powersport dealer right now, most of them complain about the interest bill at the end of the month. But they still -- they understand that to support the growth, they need to invest in working capital.

Yes. And the other thing is that dealers do trust us that we'll make the right decisions. And one thing that's important is that, we do support the inventory in the first 60, 90 days when the unit is shipped. So obviously, that is a burden that they do not have and we have and we accept it.

And the other thing is, in the past, if we've ended a season with too much inventory, we've always been there to step in and support the dealers with their floorplan financing. And that's something that we've done, and that's something that we will continue to do if a season would end up to be not as good as expected and they'd have more inventory. So there's a level of trust there that exists between us and the dealers on that side.

Okay. So they're complaining more, but they're not changing their habits. Got it.

Well, for sure. I mean, they've lived the perfect world. For 2 years, they had no floorplan financing costs. And so they forgot what it was. And now they have inventory, which they're happy because that allows them to sell. But there's a, obviously, higher interest rates and a higher floorplan that comes with it. And so there is a sticker shock, but it's a cost of doing business.

It's like meals at the restaurant, more expensive, but you still go.

Your next question comes from Michael Kypreos from Desjardins.

So just a one quick one for me, maybe on the snowmobile front. I think you mentioned 50% had been pre-sold, the same figure that you had mentioned last quarter. Have you seen like any early signs of cancellation or is everything setting up well from a strong season in your point of view, especially with one of your competitors saying that they're going to exit the market?

No, no sign of -- every year, you have some fallout and some cancellations, but I didn't heard any dealers saying that this year was worse than previous year. Snowmobile customers are different than the others. Some will save money and that's the last thing they will cut in their budget because it's a passion, and we believe we are in good shape for the snowmobile season.

Your next question comes from Jonathan Goldman from Scotiabank.

Thanks for taking my questions. Most of them have been answered, just 2 housekeeping ones. Jose, you talked about possibly exceeding the 30% market share in side-by-side next year. I just wanted to -- if you can revisit the capacity that you have in side-by-side currently and coming online, what market share could that support over the next 2 years or 1.5 years?

That's a good one. First, we have plenty of capacity for next year's season. We will not reach the maximum of our capacity. As you remember, we built Juarez 2 in 2 phase and Juarez 3 in 2 phases. Then we have plenty of capacity for next year, for sure. And now, we're even looking how we could tweak and maybe optimize the capacity within those 2 factories. I think there is ways where with small investments, you can even increase the capacity above what we had planned 2 years ago.

Perfect, that's helpful. And then, just, I guess, one for you, Sebastien. On the reduced CapEx guide by $100 million, does that change your thinking around capital allocation for this year at all?

No, we're still going to be generating strong free cash flow even before the reduction of CapEx. And obviously, we've been active with buybacks. We still have about 900,000 shares to buy back under the NCIB. But the priority, as we've always said, is investing in growth and any excess free cash flow will be used to, obviously, return it to shareholders, which we've been very good at doing in the last few years.

(Operator Instructions) Your next question comes from Brandon Rolle from D.A. Davidson.

Just circling back to the fiscal year '25 earnings targets and revenue guidance, could you just speak to your level of confidence to hit those targets? I feel as though there's a view out there it's going to be impossible for you to hit even the low end of that earnings range. I know you talked about the market share gains. But just overall, where could there be some downside to the current guidance are you still comfortable hitting those earning targets?

Well, as I said to Martin's question, when we look at all the positives that's been happening, there's been a lot. We're ahead of plan on a lot of the elements. And again, if the consumer sentiment is to remain as it is today, we strongly believe that the M25 target is achievable.

Now, if there wasn't going to be a soft landing and everybody calls for a recession, obviously, we'd revisit our plan. But I mean, we can't manage the business one foot on the gas and one foot on the brake. And today, when we look at the great momentum we have, there's no reasons why we could not achieve the target next year.

And there are no further questions at this time. I will turn the call to Mr. Deschenes to close the meeting.

Thanks, everyone, for joining us this morning and for your interest in BRP. We look forward to speaking with you again for our third quarter conference call on November 30. Thanks again, everyone, and have a good day.

Ladies and gentlemen, this concludes your conference call for today. We thank you for joining, and you may now disconnect your lines. Thank you.