使用警語:中文譯文來源為 AI 翻譯,僅供參考,實際內容請以英文原文為主
Operator
Operator
Good morning, ladies and gentlemen. Welcome to the BRP Inc.'s fiscal year 2026 fourth quarter results conference call. (Operator Instructions)
各位女士、先生,早安。歡迎參加 BRP Inc. 2026 會計年度第四季財報電話會議。(接線員指示)
I would now like to turn the meeting over to Mr. Philippe Deschenes. Please go ahead, Mr. Deschenes.
現在我想把會議交給 Philippe Deschenes 先生。Deschenes 先生,請開始。
Philippe Deschênes - Director - Investor Relations
Philippe Deschênes - Director - Investor Relations
Thank you, Julie. Good morning, and welcome to BRP's conference call for the fourth quarter of fiscal year 2016. Joining me this morning are Denis Le Vot, President and Chief Executive Officer; and Sebastien Martel, Chief Financial Officer.
謝謝你,Julie。各位早安,歡迎參加 BRP 2016 會計年度第四季電話會議。今天早上與我一同出席的有:總裁兼執行長 Denis Le Vot,以及財務長 Sebastien Martel。
Before we move to the prepared remarks, I would like to remind everyone that certain forward-looking statements will be made during the call and that the actual results could differ from those implied in these statements. The forward-looking information is based on certain assumptions and are subject to risks and uncertainties, and I invite you to consult BRP's MD&A for a complete lease update. Also during the call, reference will be made to supporting slides, and you can find the presentation on our website at brp.com under the Investor Relations section.
在進入預先準備的發言之前,我想提醒各位,本次電話會議中將會提及若干前瞻性陳述,而實際結果可能與這些陳述所暗示者有所不同。前瞻性資訊係基於若干假設,並受風險與不確定性影響;我也邀請各位查閱 BRP 的管理階層討論與分析(MD&A),以取得完整的最新資訊。此外,會議中將引用輔助投影片,您可於 brp.com 網站的投資人關係(Investor Relations)專區找到簡報。
So with that, I'll turn the call over to Denis.
那麼,接下來我把電話交給 Denis。
Denis Le Vot - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Denis Le Vot - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Well, thank you, Philippe. Good morning, everyone, and thank you for joining us. I'm truly honored to be here today as the new CEO of BRP. Although I've only been here in my role for two months, I can see how Jose Boisjoli and the team contributed to building an exceptional company and move our industry forward in meaningful ways. I am excited to lead the next chapter of this great organization built on solid foundation and deep rooted values.
好的,謝謝你,Philippe。各位早安,感謝各位加入我們。今天能以 BRP 新任執行長的身分在此,我深感榮幸。雖然我在這個職位上才兩個月,但我已看見 Jose Boisjoli 與團隊如何共同打造一家卓越的公司,並以有意義的方式推動我們的產業向前發展。我很期待帶領這個建立在穩固基礎與深厚價值之上的優秀組織,開啟下一個篇章。
Since joining BRP, I have spent my time diving into the business. meeting our talented employees, visiting our sites and engaging with our dealers, distributors and partners. Last week, I had the chance to ride our side-by-side vehicle and personal watercraft in Palm Bay, and believe me that was quite an experience. My views will continue to evolve as I refine my understanding of the business. But so far, I am energized by the passion I've seen and the immense potential ahead of us.
加入 BRP 以來,我把時間投入在深入了解業務、認識我們優秀的員工、走訪各據點,並與經銷商、代理商與合作夥伴交流。上週我有機會在 Palm Bay 試乘我們的並排座(side-by-side)車款與個人水上摩托車(PWC),相信我,那真是相當特別的體驗。隨著我對業務理解的深化,我的觀點也會持續演進。但截至目前,我對所見到的熱情以及我們面前巨大的潛力感到振奮。
It is already clear to me that BRP has a proud legacy, a culture of innovation and excellence and a unique position as a leading part sports OEM poised for continued growth. I'm happy to share with you the solid results our team delivered, starting with a look at fiscal '26 highlights on slide number 4.
我已清楚看到,BRP 擁有令人自豪的傳承、創新與卓越的文化,並以領先的動力運動(powersport)OEM 身分占據獨特地位,具備持續成長的態勢。我很高興與各位分享團隊交出的穩健成果,先從第 4 頁投影片的 2026 會計年度重點開始。
Looking at the past year, I am impressed with how the company managed through a volatile tariff environment and challenging competitive landscape as the other OEMs were still looking through excess inventory. Despite these headwinds, we delivered financial results above our initial expectation for the year and continued prioritizing our business relationships with dealers by making great strides in rightsizing our network inventory. Additionally, several steps have been taken to strengthen the long-term prospects of our business. Such as the introduction of several new key models, the divestiture of two of our Marine businesses and the introduction of our M28 strategic plan. BRP is in a solid position heading into fiscal '27.
回顧過去一年,我對公司在關稅環境波動、競爭態勢艱困(其他 OEM 仍在消化過剩庫存)的情況下,仍能妥善因應,印象深刻。儘管面臨這些逆風,我們的全年財務表現仍高於年初預期,並持續以經銷商關係為優先,於調整通路庫存至合理水位方面取得重大進展。此外,我們也採取多項措施以強化業務的長期前景。例如推出多款關鍵新車型、處分我們兩項海事(Marine)業務,以及推出 M28 策略計畫。BRP 以穩健姿態邁入 2027 會計年度。
Now let's take a look at the year's financial results on slide number 5. We ended fiscal '26 with revenues of $8.4 billion, normalized EBITDA of $1.1 billion and normalized EPS of $5.21, all coming in above guidance. Additionally, we generated solid free cash flow of more than $900 million, ending the year with a strong balance sheet.
接著請看第 5 頁投影片的全年財務結果。2026 會計年度我們的營收為 84 億美元、標準化 EBITDA 為 11 億美元、標準化每股盈餘(EPS)為 5.21 美元,皆高於財測指引。此外,我們創造超過 9 億美元的穩健自由現金流,並以強健的資產負債表結束本年度。
Turning to more operational elements. We concluded the year with a healthy network inventory position, as you can see on slide number 6. In North America, our dealers inventory was down 17% from a year ago and down 28% over two years. We reached optimal levels for ORV and snowmobile following a good quarter at retail, and we are progressing towards these levels for the other product lines. We are now positioned to better align wholesale with retail in fiscal '27 and to capture market demand when the industry returns to growth.
再談一些營運面要素。如第 6 頁投影片所示,我們在年底的通路庫存水位維持健康。在北美,我們經銷商庫存較去年同期下降 17%,較兩年前下降 28%。在零售端表現良好的帶動下,我們的 ORV 與雪地摩托車已達到最佳水位,其他產品線也正朝此水位推進。我們如今已具備更佳條件,在 2027 會計年度讓批發出貨與零售需求更一致,並在產業重回成長時掌握市場需求。
Now turning to our retail performance by looking at global trends on slide number 7. We had a solid quarter with our North American powersport retail increasing 12%, fueled by positive industry trends and market share gains in ORV and snowmobiles. Actually, we delivered a record Q4 performance in ORV in Canada. Let's look at the other regions. Markets in EMEA remain relatively muted with a slight growth in ORV and PWC, but offset by snowmobile trends in Scandinavia due to unfavorable snow conditions.
接著看第 7 頁投影片,從全球趨勢檢視我們的零售表現。本季表現穩健,北美動力運動產品零售成長 12%,受惠於正向的產業趨勢,以及我們在 ORV 與雪地摩托車的市占提升。事實上,我們在加拿大 ORV 的第四季零售表現創下紀錄。再看其他地區。EMEA 市場整體仍相對平淡,ORV 與 PWC 略有成長,但斯堪地那維亞因雪況不佳導致雪地摩托車趨勢走弱,抵銷了部分成長。
As a result, we lagged the broader industry given our important snowmobile business in the region. Meanwhile, our retail was up 1% in both Latin America and Asia Pacific, primarily driven by a strong end of season for PWC in these markets. This notably led our strongest retail quarter ever in Brazil. Overall, we saw global trends continuing to improve in Q4 with industry growth in all regions.
因此,鑑於我們在該地區雪地摩托車業務占比重要,我們的表現落後於整體產業。同時,拉丁美洲與亞太地區零售皆成長 1%,主要由這些市場 PWC 季末強勁表現所帶動。這也使我們在巴西創下史上最強的單季零售表現。整體而言,第四季全球趨勢持續改善,各區域產業皆呈現成長。
Now turning to slide 8 for a look at our North American retail performance by product line. As mentioned, we had a very strong quarter with our retail up 12% and market share gains across the portfolio. The side-by-side industry remains healthy, up low single digits in the quarter, driven by the utility segment, reflecting the growing adoption of CAB units. Can-Am performed remarkably well with retail up high single digit, thanks to the success of the new Defender HD11. For ATV, the industry was down mid-single digits, but up when excluding used models. Can-Am significantly outpaced the industry again with retail up low-teen percent, driven by market share gains in the high-cc segment following recent product introductions.
接著看第 8 頁投影片,按產品線檢視我們在北美的零售表現。如前所述,本季表現非常強勁,零售成長 12%,且全產品組合皆取得市占提升。並排座(side-by-side)產業仍維持健康,本季成長低個位數,主要由多功能(utility)級距帶動,反映 CAB 車廂單元採用率提升。Can-Am 表現亮眼,零售成長高個位數,主要受惠於新款 Defender HD11 的成功。至於 ATV,產業下滑中個位數,但若排除二手車型則呈現成長。Can-Am 再次大幅領先產業,零售成長低十位數百分比,主要由近期新品推出後在大排氣量(high-cc)級距的市占提升所帶動。
As for the snowmobile, the industry was up mid-teens from a weak Q4 last year. Even though we were competing against high level of discounted and aged network inventory from other OEM, we again outpaced the industry in the quarter. Moreover, a few weeks ago, we launched our new Ski-Doo and Lynx lineups for the upcoming season. Once again, we are by far offering our rider and dealers the most innovation in the industry with improved performance, comfort and features.
雪地摩托車方面,產業在去年第四季基期偏弱下,成長中十位數百分比。即便我們面對其他 OEM 大量折扣且老化的通路庫存競爭,我們本季仍再次跑贏產業。此外,幾週前我們已發布即將到來季節的全新 Ski-Doo 與 Lynx 產品陣容。我們再次以大幅領先之姿,為騎士與經銷商提供業界最多的創新,在性能、舒適性與功能上皆有提升。
With our strong retail momentum per the end of season inventory levels and exciting new lineups, we are well positioned to further extend our leadership in the snowmobile industry. Finally, Q4 was off season for 3-wheel vehicle, personal watercraft and Pontoons. Retail trends were softer than last year, notably due to an extended winter season. We will get to a better picture of market demand when core retail season begins in late April.
憑藉強勁的零售動能、季末庫存水位,以及令人振奮的新產品陣容,我們已做好準備,進一步擴大在雪地摩托車產業的領導地位。最後,第四季為三輪車、個人水上摩托車(PWC)與 Pontoons 的淡季。零售趨勢較去年偏弱,尤其是因冬季延長所致。待 4 月下旬核心零售旺季開始後,我們將能更清楚掌握市場需求。
Before concluding on retail, I want to further emphasize the strong impact of our new ORV models on our retail momentum on slide number 9. As I said earlier, we significantly outpaced the ORV industry in the fourth quarter, a trend that began in October when our new models were reaching dealers showroom. Since then, our SSV retail has been up about 10%. In fact, we have achieved our highest third and fourth quarter market share ever in utility, the largest and fastest-growing side-by-side segment.
在結束零售議題之前,我想進一步強調我們新款 ORV 車型對零售動能的強勁帶動效果,請見第 9 頁投影片。如我先前所說,我們在第四季明顯跑贏 ORV 產業;這個趨勢自 10 月開始,當時我們的新車型陸續進入經銷商展示間。自那之後,我們的 SSV 零售約成長 10%。事實上,我們在多功能(utility)級距——最大且成長最快的並排座細分市場——創下史上最高的第三季與第四季市占率。
We had also announced the repricing of certain model [SSV], and this decision is paying off so far, resulting in a market share gain of almost 4 points for this model in Q4. As for ATV, the Revamp Outlander platform and recently introduced high-cc Models led to a market share gain of almost 9 points in this category. These achievements show the importance of innovation, which has always been part of BRP's DNA and the driving force behind its continued success.
我們也宣布對特定車型[SSV]進行重新定價,而這項決策迄今已見成效,使該車型在第四季的市占率提升了近4個百分點。至於ATV,Revamp Outlander平台以及近期推出的大排氣量車型,帶動此類別市占率提升近9個百分點。這些成果凸顯創新的重要性;創新一直是BRP的DNA之一,也是其持續成功的驅動力。
On that, I turn the call over to Sebastien.
接下來,我把電話會議交給Sebastien。
Sebastien Martel - Chief Financial Officer
Sebastien Martel - Chief Financial Officer
Thank you, Denis, and welcome to your first BRP earnings call, and good morning, everyone, driven by robust consumer demand across our lineup and solid execution throughout the organization. We closed the year on a strong note, delivering results ahead of expectations.
謝謝你,Denis,也歡迎各位參加你們的第一場BRP財報電話會議;各位早安。在我們全產品線強勁的消費者需求帶動下,以及組織內部穩健的執行力支持下,我們以強勁表現為本年度畫下句點,交出優於預期的成果。
Looking at the numbers. Revenue grew 16% to $2.5 billion, with solid double-digit growth across all product categories. The increase was primarily driven by Personal Watercraft, snowmobile and ORV shipment a favorable product mix and positive pricing net of sales programs.
來看數字。營收成長16%至25億美元,各產品類別皆呈現穩健的雙位數成長。成長主要由個人水上摩托車(Personal Watercraft)、雪地摩托車以及ORV出貨所帶動,並受惠於有利的產品組合,以及扣除銷售方案後的正向定價。
Before moving into the profitability metrics on the following slide, I want to briefly address the impairment charge recorded this quarter. As discussed in the past, we entered the EV and light mobility markets during a period of rapid expansion, investing in these areas with a long-term mindset. Since then, adoption has slowed and market dynamics have become more challenging. Given the reduced outlook for returns on our investments, we recorded an impairment charge on our EV and liability assets during the quarter. Still, as previously mentioned, our intention remains to continue selling EV products we have already developed while limiting the annual financial impact to $25 million.
在進入下一頁的獲利指標之前,我想先簡要說明本季認列的減損費用。如先前所述,我們在市場快速擴張期間進入電動車(EV)與輕型移動(light mobility)市場,並以長期思維在這些領域投資。此後,市場採用速度放緩,市場動態也變得更具挑戰。鑑於我們投資報酬前景下修,我們於本季對EV及相關資產認列減損費用。不過,如先前提到,我們仍計畫持續銷售已開發完成的EV產品,同時將年度財務影響限制在2,500萬美元。
Looking at gross profit. Excluding the impact of some of the EV write-down classified as cost of sales, the gross profit was $582 million, representing a margin of 23.7%, up 380 basis points from last year. The improvement was driven by better capacity utilization, lower sales programs and favorable pricing, partly offset by tariffs, higher warranty expense and the return of variable compensation. Normalized EBITDA increased 47% to $364 million and normalized EPS more than doubled to $2.21.
再看毛利。排除部分被歸類為銷貨成本的EV減損影響後,毛利為5.82億美元,毛利率23.7%,較去年提升380個基點。改善主要來自產能利用率提升、銷售方案減少及有利定價,但部分被關稅、較高的保固費用以及變動薪酬恢復所抵銷。標準化EBITDA成長47%至3.64億美元,標準化每股盈餘(normalized EPS)更是倍增至2.21美元。
These results translated into robust cash generation as shown on slide 13. In fact, we delivered our strongest year ever, generating over $900 million of free cash flow from continuing operations. With these strong results and the proactive steps we took last fall to strengthening our debt structure, we ended the year with a solid balance sheet, including over $400 million in cash and a net leverage ratio of just 1.8 times.
如第13頁所示,這些結果轉化為強勁的現金創造能力。事實上,我們創下歷來最佳年度表現,來自持續營運的自由現金流超過9億美元。憑藉這些強勁成果,以及我們去年秋季為強化債務結構所採取的前瞻性措施,我們在年底擁有穩健的資產負債表,包括超過4億美元現金,淨槓桿比率僅1.8倍。
Combined with our strong retail performance and solid outlook for the business, this positions us well with the financial flexibility to continue investing in our growth while accelerating capital returns to shareholders. As such, we announced a 16% increase to our dividend and plan to be active with buybacks with over 2.6 million shares still authorized for repurchase under our NCIB.
再加上我們強勁的零售表現與穩健的業務展望,這使我們具備充足的財務彈性,得以持續投資成長,同時加速回饋股東。因此,我們宣布股利提高16%,並計畫積極進行庫藏股回購;在我們的NCIB項下,仍有超過260萬股獲授權可供回購。
Now turning to slide 14 for an outlook for our guidance. We entered fiscal '27 with strong momentum, supported by solid retail growth in Q4 and continued robust demand for our newly introduced models across the portfolio. In addition, with our network inventory rightsizing largely behind us, we are well positioned to benefit from the improved alignment between wholesale and retail. With these factors in mind, we are on an even better trajectory than we thought we would be when we reported our Q3 results back in December and entered fiscal '27 positioned to deliver north of $6 of normalized EPS.
接著看第14頁的財測展望。我們以強勁動能進入2027財年,第四季零售成長穩健,且我們新推出車型在整體產品組合中持續維持強勁需求。此外,隨著通路庫存調整(rightsizing)大致告一段落,我們已具備良好條件,受惠於批發與零售之間更佳的一致性。基於上述因素,我們目前的發展軌跡甚至優於去年12月公布第三季結果時的預期,並以可望交出超過6美元的標準化每股盈餘進入2027財年。
However, as you know, events in the recent weeks have increased uncertainty around the broader environment, making it more challenging to anticipate how market conditions may evolve. While we are not seeing any material impact on the demand for our products at this time, we have elected to introduce a wider than usual guidance range to reflect potential outcomes should conditions change as the year unfolds. Consequently, looking at the different scenarios, we expect our revenues to grow between 5% and 8% and our normalized EBITDA between 6% and 16% and our normalized EPS to end between $5.50 and $6.50.
然而,如各位所知,近幾週的事件提高了整體環境的不確定性,使得更難預測市場狀況將如何演變。雖然目前我們尚未看到對產品需求造成任何重大影響,但我們選擇提供較以往更寬的財測區間,以反映若年度進程中情勢變化可能出現的不同結果。因此,在不同情境下,我們預期營收成長介於5%至8%,標準化EBITDA成長介於6%至16%,標準化每股盈餘介於5.50至6.50美元。
Now looking at how we expect the year to unfold on slide 15. Retail and fiscal '27 continues to perform well and is tracking in line with our initial plan for the year. This positions for a strong top line growth in the first half driven by continued market share gains and supported by shipments that are expected to be more aligned with retail following last year's significant network inventory right size. Revenue growth is expected to moderate in the second half as we lap the initial shipments of last year's significant product introduction and as typical at this time of the year, we take a more conservative view of the snowmobile business for the upcoming season.
接著看第15頁,說明我們預期本年度的進展節奏。零售與2027財年持續表現良好,並與我們年初的原始計畫一致。這使我們在上半年具備強勁的營收成長動能,主要由持續的市占提升所帶動,並由出貨支撐;在去年大幅調整通路庫存後,出貨預期將更貼近零售表現。下半年營收成長預期將趨緩,原因是我們將面臨去年重大新品導入初期出貨的高基期,且依照此時節的慣例,我們對即將到來雪地摩托車季節的業務採取較保守的看法。
Assuming demand continues to track with our plan and incorporating the impact of the recent increases in oil, energy and commodity prices for the full year. We expect to deliver results in the upper half of our guidance range with normalized EPS of $6 to $6.50, representing a 15% to 25% growth over fiscal '26.
假設需求持續符合我們的計畫,並將近期油價、能源與大宗商品價格上漲對全年造成的影響納入考量。我們預期可交出位於財測區間上半部的結果,標準化每股盈餘為6至6.50美元,較2026財年成長15%至25%。
While we cannot predict how current events will unfold or whether they may ultimately affect our business, we recognize that they could lead to more uncertainty in the broader economy. As such, we have assessed what it could mean for the business in an alternative scenario where demand gradually softened towards a mid-single-digit industry decline later in the year.
雖然我們無法預測當前事件將如何發展,或其是否最終會影響我們的業務,但我們也認知到,這些事件可能使整體經濟面臨更高的不確定性。因此,我們評估了另一種情境:若需求在年內後段逐步轉弱,導致產業出現中個位數的下滑,這對業務可能意味著什麼。
In such a case, we expect that the impact on our first half results would be limited as most of the planned volume is already backed by dealer orders. Any required adjustment would therefore occur primarily in the second half. Factoring in lower volumes, higher sales program and the impact of lower variable compensation and alignment of overhead spend to that environment, we expect that our normalized EPS could land within the lower half of our guidance range.
在此情況下,我們預期對上半年業績的影響將有限,因為大部分計畫量已由經銷商訂單支撐。因此,任何必要的調整將主要發生在下半年。在納入較低出貨量、較高的銷售方案,以及較低的變動薪酬影響,並使間接費用支出與該環境對齊後,我們預期標準化每股盈餘可能落在財測區間的下半部。
Still, based on what we see today across the business, most importantly, with retail trends and dealer orders, we continue to track towards the upper half of the guidance range, and we are trending towards a strong first half of the year, including normalized EBITDA growth in the 40% range for Q1. All of this supports our confidence in continuing to invest in our long-term growth while accelerating capital returns to shareholders.
儘管如此,根據我們目前在整體業務所見,尤其是零售趨勢與經銷商訂單,我們仍持續朝向財測區間上半部推進,且上半年走勢強勁,包括第一季標準化EBITDA成長約40%。以上種種都支持我們的信心:在持續投資長期成長的同時,加速回饋股東。
On that, I will turn the call over back to Denis.
接下來,我把電話會議交回給Denis。
Denis Le Vot - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Denis Le Vot - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Thank you, Sebastien. Before concluding, I would like to provide an update on our M28 strategic plan. The team has already progressed on many key strategic initiatives, notably by gaining market share through our new ORV products, growing our North American dealer network, expanding our international business and improving efficiency by unlocking lean value. I look forward to working on further progressing on our targets.
謝謝你,Sebastien。在結語之前,我想就我們的M28策略計畫提供最新進展。團隊已在多項關鍵策略舉措上取得進展,尤其是透過我們新的ORV產品提升市占、擴大北美經銷商網絡、拓展國際業務,以及透過釋放精實價值(lean value)提升效率。我期待與大家一起持續推進我們的目標。
On the heel of a successful fiscal '26 and fueled by our Q4 retail momentum, we are stepping into fiscal '27 with a solid alignment and ready to deliver on our commitments. As mentioned in my introduction, I have met with many of our stakeholders since joining BRP, and they all have this in common, the passion for our products and willingness to contribute to our success.
在成功的2026財年基礎上,並在第四季零售動能的推動下,我們以穩健的對齊狀態邁入2027財年,準備好兌現我們的承諾。如我在開場所提,自加入BRP以來,我已與許多利害關係人會面,而他們都有一個共同點:對我們產品的熱情,以及願意為我們的成功做出貢獻。
Visiting some dealers allowed me to witness that the network is engaged and healthy and that our efforts to improve the dealer sentiment are paying off. And this is only the beginning. I had a chance to meet with some of our design and engineering colleagues, and I am convinced that we have a strong lineup coming up and an exciting pipeline. Everyone is looking forward to invading new innovation later this year and beyond. While the geopolitical environment remains uncertain, we are confident in our ability to adapt and execute on what we can control to continue outpacing our industry.
拜訪部分經銷商讓我親眼見證,經銷網路投入且健康,我們改善經銷商情緒的努力正在見到成效。而這只是開始。我也有機會與我們部分設計與工程同仁會面,我深信我們即將推出的產品陣容非常強大,且研發管線令人振奮。大家都期待在今年稍晚及未來推出新的創新。儘管地緣政治環境仍不確定,我們對自身的適應能力與在可控範圍內落實執行充滿信心,並將持續跑贏產業。
In the longer term, we aim to strengthen BRP's position as a leading global powersports OEM, drive sustained growth and deliver lasting value for shareholders. I look forward to having the opportunity to further engage with you in the near term.
從更長期來看,我們的目標是強化 BRP 作為全球領先動力運動 OEM 的地位,推動可持續的成長,並為股東創造長期價值。我期待在不久的將來有機會與各位進一步交流。
And on that note, I turn the call over to the operator for questions.
說到這裡,我把電話交給接線員進行提問。
Operator
Operator
(Operator Instructions)
(接線員指示)
Benoit Poirier, Desjardins.
Benoit Poirier,Desjardins。
Benoit Poirier - Analyst
Benoit Poirier - Analyst
Yeah, thank you very much and good morning and welcome on board, Denis. So obviously, very impressive engineering background in the automotive industry and in a few companies around the globe. So could you give us your first impression? And where do you see the greatest opportunities to bring value on the back of your strong experience?
是的,非常感謝,早安,也歡迎加入,Denis。很顯然,您在汽車產業的工程背景非常亮眼,且曾在全球多家公司任職。能否談談您的第一印象?以及基於您深厚的經驗,您認為在哪些方面有最大的機會創造價值?
Denis Le Vot - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Denis Le Vot - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Well, thank you, Benoit. Thank you very much, and hello, everyone. We are very happy to join. I've been in the car industry and the auto industry for decades. That's true in Europe as well as in North America, was ahead of Japanese brand in the US a few years ago. And I think that when you look at motor sports, there are two folds to your question. The first one is the similarities, there are similarities. This is a big volume, industrial business, B2B2C in which, of course, you have the same challenges, the value of the brand relationship with the network, the quality of the product, the competitiveness of the company this is very, very similar. And on that one, I guess, I have a huge experience.
好的,謝謝你,Benoit。非常感謝,大家好。我們非常高興加入。我在汽車產業已經工作了數十年。這在歐洲與北美皆是如此;幾年前我也曾在美國領導一家日本品牌。我認為,談到動力運動,你的問題有兩個面向。第一個是相似之處,確實有相似之處。這是一個大規模量產的工業型業務,是 B2B2C 模式;當然,你會面臨相同的挑戰:品牌價值、與經銷網路的關係、產品品質、公司的競爭力——這些都非常、非常相似。在這方面,我想我擁有非常豐富的經驗。
The second fold of course, is the differences. These are the products. Though I've been writing motorbikes all my life, you don't come to this job like you come to any job. You have to be attractive and I am fully attracted by the products of the company. These are great, great, great products. These are dream machines to me, and this is another part of the game, which I think is very important, especially on positioning the brand on the marketing positioning, and I'm really excited to be here.
第二個面向當然是差異。差異在於產品本身。雖然我一輩子都在騎機車,但你不會像對待任何一份工作那樣來做這份工作。你必須被產品吸引,而我確實完全被公司的產品所吸引。這些產品非常、非常、非常出色。對我而言,這些是夢幻機器;而這也是遊戲的另一部分,我認為非常重要,尤其是在品牌定位與行銷定位上,我真的很興奮能在這裡。
Benoit Poirier - Analyst
Benoit Poirier - Analyst
Okay. That's great color. And just for the follow-up question, looking at fiscal year '27, Obviously, we saw the forecast, the guidance for fiscal year '27. Could you talk maybe about the assumptions from a tariff standpoint also in terms of promotional activities? And given on what you're tracking so far in terms of market share gain, if there is room to exceed the fiscal year '28 targets in terms of side-by-side and ATV.
好的。這些觀點很棒。接著追問一題,展望 2027 財年,顯然我們已看到對 2027 財年的預測與指引。能否談談在關稅假設以及促銷活動方面的假設?另外,依你們目前追蹤到的市占率提升情況,並排車(side-by-side)與 ATV 在 2028 財年目標上是否有空間超越?
Sebastien Martel - Chief Financial Officer
Sebastien Martel - Chief Financial Officer
Yeah, good morning, I think it's -- I'll start with the last part of your question. I think it's too early to call out whether or not M28 target that we will exceed it. We're certainly focused on delivering it. And as you saw Denis's prepared remarks, he covered the accomplishments we've achieved on '28. One thing for sure is we're happy with the reception that our products have gained in Q4 and with the retail momentum.
是的,早安,我先回答你問題的最後一部分。我認為現在要判斷我們是否會超越 M28 目標還太早。我們當然專注於把它交付出來。如同你在 Denis 的事先準備講稿中所看到的,他已涵蓋我們在 '28 上取得的成果。可以確定的是,我們對產品在第四季獲得的市場反應以及零售動能感到滿意。
And as I said in my prepared remarks, we're actually ahead of where we were -- where we thought we would be when we talked back in December. So that's a good news. The snowmobile season went well. For the puts and takes for next year. Obviously, we expect EBITDA margin expansion.
而且如我在事先準備講稿中所說,我們實際上已經領先於——領先於我們在 12 月回顧時所預期的位置。所以這是好消息。雪地摩托車季表現良好。至於明年的利多與利空。很明顯,我們預期 EBITDA 利潤率將擴張。
That EBITDA margin expansion will come from gross margin. I'll start with the overhead and the OpEx. We're planning for little leverage on OpEx as we are making targeted investments in order to achieve M28 objectives, the elements that we covered during our investor meeting in terms of product and also dealer network. But the margin growth is going to certainly come from the added volume now that retail is more balanced with wholesale. The lean initiatives that we have, and there is some tailwind as well coming from programs.
這個 EBITDA 利潤率擴張將來自毛利率。我先談間接費用與營運費用(OpEx)。我們規劃在 OpEx 上僅有小幅槓桿效益,因為我們正在進行有針對性的投資,以達成 M28 目標——也就是我們在投資人會議中提到的產品與經銷網路等要素。但利潤率成長肯定會來自新增的銷量,因為目前零售與批發更為平衡。此外還有我們的精實(lean)計畫,以及部分方案帶來的順風。
What we did build in our guidance, which we have not forecasted initially was the oil barrel going up from $60 to $100. So our assumption initially was at $60 and going to $100 from a freight perspective commodity is an impact of about 60 basis points that we baked into our guidance.
我們在指引中納入了一項原先未預測的因素:原油價格從每桶 60 美元上升到 100 美元。因此,我們最初的假設是每桶 60 美元;從運輸與大宗商品角度來看,若上升到 100 美元,影響約為 60 個基點,我們已將其納入指引。
Benoit Poirier - Analyst
Benoit Poirier - Analyst
That's perfect. That's a great color. Thank you very much for the time.
非常好。這些補充資訊很有幫助。非常感謝你撥冗。
Operator
Operator
Robin Farley, UBS.
Robin Farley,UBS。
Robin Farley - Analyst
Robin Farley - Analyst
Great, thank you. Just wanted to get more clarity around your guidance. It sounds like you're saying that what you're seeing is actually in the top half of your EPS range and that the sort of entire bottom half would be a change from what you're seeing. But I just want to clarify, you just mentioned that you already do have higher fuel price baked into the top end of guidance, right? In other words, the current fuel price still puts you in the top end of that guidance?
很好,謝謝。我想更清楚了解你們的指引。聽起來你們是說,目前看到的情況其實落在你們 EPS 區間的上半部,而整個下半部則需要相較目前所見出現變化才會發生。但我想確認一下:你剛提到你們已把較高的燃油價格影響納入指引上緣,對嗎?換句話說,目前的燃油價格仍使你們落在該指引的上緣?
And then also, if you could give us some color around just what's baked in for your expectation for ORV retail for this year? And like how much -- you mentioned shipping in line with retail? And then if you could help us quantify sort of the dollar amount of destocking that you're comping. So in other words, if you ship in line with retail and retail is flat, you would still be up just to help us. Thank you.
另外,也請你們補充一下,今年對 ORV 零售的預期中已納入哪些假設?以及——你們提到出貨與零售一致?再者,能否協助我們量化你們正在比較的去庫存(destocking)金額大概是多少?也就是說,如果你們出貨與零售一致、而零售持平,你們仍會成長——希望你們能幫我們量化一下。謝謝。
Sebastien Martel - Chief Financial Officer
Sebastien Martel - Chief Financial Officer
So yes, on your question, we have baked in the financial impact of a higher barrel cost on our business obviously, and as I mentioned, to Benoit, about a 60 basis point impact. In terms of industry expectation, we're expecting a flat industry that's going in assumption. Overall for all of the powersports industry, we have a slight increase, the low, low single digit for ORV. And we are expecting market share gains.
是的,針對你的問題,我們已將較高每桶原油成本對我們業務的財務影響納入考量;如我對 Benoit 所提,影響約 60 個基點。就產業預期而言,我們的假設是產業持平。以整體動力運動產業來看,我們對 ORV 的預期是小幅成長,約低個位數百分比。而我們預期市占率將提升。
So ORV, we're expecting market share gains, snowmobile off a good season, inventory corrected. We're expecting a solid season next year. So that's also big then. Where we might see a bit of gnarliness is on the market share for personal watercraft. Other OEMs have more inventory. They finished the season higher than they were last year. So we might see a bit of market share loss on that front.
因此在 ORV 方面,我們預期市占率提升;雪地摩托車在一個良好季節之後,庫存已修正到位。我們預期明年會是穩健的一季。所以這也是一個重要因素。我們可能會看到一些較棘手的情況是在個人水上摩托(personal watercraft)的市占率上。其他 OEM 的庫存較多。他們在季末的庫存水位高於去年。因此在那一塊我們可能會看到一些市占率流失。
Denis Le Vot - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Denis Le Vot - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
And as Sebastien was saying, the first half is already solid by the orders we get from our dealers. And the gains of market share is already -- the momentum is already there because the is really outpacing the market when it comes to US, as you asked, SSV ORV, we have 12% growth already in the Q4 only.
正如Sebastien所說,從經銷商給我們的訂單來看,上半年已經相當穩健。而市占率的提升也已經——動能已經在那裡,因為就美國市場而言(如你所問的SSV、ORV),我們的表現確實大幅領先市場,單在第四季就已經有12%的成長。
Robin Farley - Analyst
Robin Farley - Analyst
Okay. Great, thank you. And then -- and just I didn't know if you could help quantify the destocking benefit to your.
好的。非常好,謝謝。然後——我不確定你是否能幫忙量化一下去庫存(destocking)對你們的好處。
Sebastien Martel - Chief Financial Officer
Sebastien Martel - Chief Financial Officer
Sorry, there was many questions in your. So the destocking impact, depending on the guidance range, we're talking, let's say, $350 million to $450 million positive tailwind that we're getting in next year.
抱歉,你剛剛問了很多問題。所以去庫存的影響,取決於指引區間,我們談的是——比方說,明年我們將獲得約3.5億到4.5億美元的正面順風。
Robin Farley - Analyst
Robin Farley - Analyst
Great. Thank you.
太好了。謝謝你。
Operator
Operator
Sabahat Khan, RBC Capital Markets.
RBC Capital Markets 的 Sabahat Khan。
Unidentified Participant
Unidentified Participant
Hey, good morning. This is Arthur on for Saba. I wanted to start with the EPS guidance, specifically the bottom end of the range. I guess just in terms of your outlook for the back half of the year, can you share how you ended up at the assumption behind the mid-single-digit decline outlook?
嗨,早安。我是Arthur,代Saba提問。我想先從每股盈餘(EPS)指引開始,特別是區間的下緣。我想就你們對下半年展望而言,你能否分享一下,你們是如何得出「中個位數下滑」這個假設的?
Sebastien Martel - Chief Financial Officer
Sebastien Martel - Chief Financial Officer
Well, the -- a mid-single-digit decline outlook. It's probably, let's say, 10% volume reduction in the back half of the year. So 5% to 10% for us, wholesale reduction which we think, again, today is a fair assumption. We don't know where things will go. Things will go sideways, et cetera.
嗯——所謂中個位數下滑的展望。大概可以理解為下半年出貨量減少約10%。所以對我們來說,批發端(wholesale)減少5%到10%,我們認為以目前來看,這是一個合理的假設。我們不知道事情會如何發展。可能會橫盤整理等等。
We've lived a few disruptions in the last few years with the war in Ukraine last year. the tariff uncertainty. So again, it's the assumption we took in a context where economic uncertainty may grow, consumers are being under pressure, interest rates do not go down or even might go up. So that's the assumption we took. But obviously, there are multiple scenarios we could have run, but we think this is a fair scenario today with what we know. And again, we've already built 60 basis points of headwind coming from higher fuel cost than our number.
過去幾年我們經歷過一些干擾,例如去年烏克蘭戰爭、關稅不確定性。所以我們是在一個經濟不確定性可能升高、消費者承受壓力、利率不下降甚至可能上升的背景下,採用這個假設。這就是我們採用的假設。但顯然,我們也可以跑出多種情境;只是以我們目前所知,我們認為這是今天一個合理的情境。另外,我們也已經在我們的數字中納入了60個基點的逆風,來自燃料成本高於我們原先的假設。
Unidentified Participant
Unidentified Participant
Okay. That's helpful. And then maybe switching to inventory. It seems like your inventory is in a good spot for the most part. Can you just comment on how you feel about your current mix? And I guess as a follow-up, I think you mentioned you still see elevated levels of noncurrent inventory from competitors. Can you just talk about maybe what that looks like today compared to the past few quarters?
好的。這很有幫助。接著可能切換到庫存。看起來你們的庫存大致上處於不錯的位置。你能否評論一下你們對目前庫存組合(mix)的看法?另外作為追問,我想你提到你仍看到競爭對手有較高水位的非流動庫存(noncurrent inventory)。你能否談談,和過去幾季相比,現在大概是什麼樣子?
Sebastien Martel - Chief Financial Officer
Sebastien Martel - Chief Financial Officer
Yes. Well, as you saw on slide 6, our inventory down 17% versus last year, 28% versus two years ago. When I look at -- even for ORV, our inventory is down prior COVID, so lower than before COVID and our retail has actually gone up by 40%. So again, a super healthy spot. As for the competition and other OEMs, the situation has improved a lot over the last 12 to 18 months.
是的。如你在第6頁投影片看到的,我們的庫存較去年下降17%,較兩年前下降28%。就算看ORV,我們的庫存也已經低於COVID之前,而我們的零售實際上成長了40%。所以整體來說,位置非常健康。至於競爭對手與其他OEM,過去12到18個月情況已經改善很多。
But for ORV, we see a few smaller OEMs that still have a lot of inventory. So they're going to have to work through that. but it's not as meaningful as we saw in past years. And as I mentioned, for Personal Watercraft, some OEMs also have a bit more inventory. But generally, we expect that environment will lead to a less promotional environment, and that's why we built a 50 basis point tailwind coming from programs in our numbers for fiscal '27.
但在ORV方面,我們看到有幾家較小的OEM仍然有不少庫存。所以他們必須把那些庫存消化掉;但其重要性已不像過去幾年那麼大。如我提到的,在個人水上摩托(Personal Watercraft)方面,有些OEM的庫存也稍微多一些。但整體而言,我們預期這樣的環境會帶來較少促銷的市場環境,因此我們在2027財年的數字中,已納入來自方案(programs)的50個基點順風。
Unidentified Participant
Unidentified Participant
Got it. That's helpful. And then maybe just on retail sales. Last question for me. Another good quarter of share gains. Can you just maybe talk about the uptake of your new product offerings and maybe kind of what the -- what your expectations are for that over the coming year?
了解。這很有幫助。然後可能談一下零售銷售。我最後一個問題。又是一個市占提升表現不錯的季度。你能否談談你們新產品供給的市場接受度(uptake),以及你們對未來一年這方面的期待?
Denis Le Vot - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Denis Le Vot - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Yes, for sure. So there's a lot of new product coming in the year, right? But what we can say is that the momentum is based on innovation, right? So this is a healthy momentum that we're having and the growth that we're posting for next year is based on that. The skid starting very well with the new 600 cc engine that we've launched, which is a top or changing with very low inertia very responsive, and we have a very, very good order trend on the skid for that reason, right?
是的,當然。所以今年會有很多新產品推出,對吧?但我們可以說,這股動能是建立在創新之上,對吧?所以我們現在擁有的是健康的動能,而我們對明年的成長預期也是基於此。Ski-Doo 以我們推出的新600cc引擎開局非常好,這是一具高扭力、慣性很低、反應非常靈敏的引擎;也因此我們在Ski-Doo上看到非常、非常好的訂單趨勢,對吧?
We also renewed all our platforms on the utility for the ski does. But of course, the most the most important innovation in the way is the Defender HD level we talked about, right? Because the fund G11 is a complete new platform, new engines. We have a new dashboard. We have a 10-inch screen on an SSD. This is a very big hit. And more importantly, this is the biggest growing segment by far is the cap. And here, we're having a success, we can hardly produce as the demand is going. So this is a very, very good position that we have in for the future. So this is mostly the two that are fueling the growth for '27.
我們也在Ski-Doo的utility(多功能/工作型)產品上更新了所有平台。但當然,最——最重要、正在路上的創新是我們談到的Defender HD等級,對吧?因為G11是一個全新的平台、新的引擎。我們有新的儀表板。我們在SSD上配備了10吋螢幕。這非常受歡迎。更重要的是,目前成長最快、遠遠領先的細分市場是cap。而在這裡我們非常成功,需求強勁到我們幾乎快要供不應求。所以我們在未來處於非常、非常有利的位置。因此,主要就是這兩項在推動我們2027年的成長。
Unidentified Participant
Unidentified Participant
Thank you.
謝謝。
Operator
Operator
Joe Altobello from Raymond James.
Raymond James 的 Joe Altobello。
Joe Altobello - Analyst
Joe Altobello - Analyst
Thanks. Hey guys, good morning. Welcome, Danis. I guess first question for you, and it's probably a tough d1 because you've been in the seat for all of two months here. But what sort of changes can we expect at BRP either strategically or operationally or financially?
謝謝。各位早安。歡迎你,Danis。我想先問你第一個問題——這可能是個難題,因為你上任才兩個月。但我們可以期待BRP在策略、營運或財務上會有哪些改變?
Denis Le Vot - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Denis Le Vot - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Yes, it's not a tough question. It's a bad question because actually, I don't see the point to make changes. I'm sitting in the company, which is growing 7% in revenue to $8.4 billion, as you saw, which is posting $8.9 billion or $9 billion revenue for next year and also is believing hard in its M28 plan of $9.5 billion revenue two years down the road.
是的,這不是個難題。這是個不太好的問題,因為其實我看不出需要改變的理由。我坐在一家營收成長7%、達到84億美元的公司裡(如你所見),而且明年預計營收達到89億或90億美元,同時也堅定相信其M28計畫:兩年後營收達到95億美元。
So I don't think that it's the moment for very quick and short-term changes, right? But still, beyond our plan for '28, there will be the longer-term plan that we have to build all together in the company. And this is going to be one of my jobs. I'm very confident in the short-term position in the business that we are running.
所以我不認為現在是做非常快速、短期變動的時刻,對吧?但在我們的'28計畫之外,還會有我們必須在公司內一起建立的更長期計畫。而這將會是我其中一項工作。我對我們目前在短期內所處的業務位置非常有信心。
I can tell you that the product lineup that I've seen that you haven't seen, for the years to come is very, very solid. And this is a chance that I'm having because we have a plan our plan is solid and we believe in it. So it gives me a little time in order to prepare with the team the next longer-term plan. And this is where potentially there could be a novelty, but this will come in due time.
我可以告訴你,我看過而你們還沒看過的未來幾年的產品陣容非常、非常扎實。而我之所以能有這樣的機會,是因為我們有一個計畫——我們的計畫很穩健,而且我們相信它。所以這讓我有一些時間,能與團隊一起準備下一個更長期的計畫。而這裡可能會有一些新意,但會在適當的時候推出。
Joe Altobello - Analyst
Joe Altobello - Analyst
Got it. Very helpful. And just to follow up on that, you mentioned the M28 targets. Glad to hear that you're backing them this morning. If I take the high end of guidance this year on EPS of $6.50, it's quite a leap to $8. Can you remind us what's driving that largely margin expansion in '28?
了解。非常有幫助。另外追問一下,您提到 M28 目標。很高興聽到您今天早上仍支持這些目標。如果我以今年每股盈餘(EPS)指引上緣 6.50 美元來看,跳到 8 美元是很大的躍升。能否提醒我們,到了 2028 年主要是什麼在推動那樣大幅的利潤率擴張?
Sebastien Martel - Chief Financial Officer
Sebastien Martel - Chief Financial Officer
Well, the driving margin expansion is going to come with the volume growth. Obviously, part of the M28 plan is gains in market share in ORV and especially in side-by-side. And so with that, we're also -- it's going to be fueled by dealer network expansion. As you saw this year, we finished above our target. We have a target of opening new dealers as well in the coming year. So it's a combination of volume efficiency gain with the lean initiatives that we have and also continuing to execute and build dealer engagement around the brand.
好的。推動利潤率擴張的動力將來自於銷量成長。顯然,M28 計畫的一部分是在 ORV,尤其是並排式(side-by-side)領域提升市占率。因此,這也將由經銷商網路擴張所帶動。如同你今年看到的,我們的成果高於目標。我們也設定了在來年開設新經銷商的目標。所以這是多重因素的結合:透過精實(lean)計畫帶來的量產效率提升,以及持續執行並強化經銷商對品牌的投入與參與。
Joe Altobello - Analyst
Joe Altobello - Analyst
Got it. And can I sneak in one more on tariffs? I think somebody asked this earlier, I'm not sure we got a number, but what was the incremental tariff in '26 and what's the expected tariff in '27?
了解。我可以再偷問一題關於關稅嗎?我想先前有人問過,但我不確定我們有拿到數字;2026 年新增的關稅影響是多少?以及 2027 年預期的關稅是多少?
Sebastien Martel - Chief Financial Officer
Sebastien Martel - Chief Financial Officer
Yes. The expectation is a flat year-over-year tariff assumption. So we've only built -- we did not build anything coming out of the recent Supreme Court ruling in terms of saving. So we have a $90 million impact built in our guidance for this year, and it was also ballpark $90 million as well last year. So a flattish tariff impact.
是的。我們的預期是假設關稅年對年持平。因此,我們只納入了——我們並未把近期最高法院裁決可能帶來的節省納入假設。所以我們在今年指引中納入了 9,000 萬美元的影響,去年也大約是 9,000 萬美元左右。因此關稅影響大致持平。
Joe Altobello - Analyst
Joe Altobello - Analyst
Got it. Perfect, thank you.
了解。太好了,謝謝。
Operator
Operator
Mark Petrie, CIBC.
Mark Petrie,CIBC。
Mark Petrie - Analyst
Mark Petrie - Analyst
Hey, good morning. I wanted to ask, actually, you just touched on it, but on the dealer network growth, as you noted, you added a little bit more or a few more than planned for fiscal '26, I think the plan was 40% for fiscal '27. Just to update that.
嗨,早安。我想問一下,其實你剛剛也提到了,關於經銷商網路的成長:如你所說,你們在 2026 財年新增的數量比原先計畫多一些或多幾家;我記得 2027 財年的計畫是 40%。想請你更新一下。
And then I'm curious just to hear anecdotally, what sort of reaction you're hearing from your existing dealers? And then any color you can add just with regards to sort of where those dealers are going and a sense of, yes, sort of the geographic opportunities?
另外我也想從軼聞角度了解一下,你們從既有經銷商那邊聽到的反應大概是什麼?以及你能否補充一些資訊,關於這些經銷商大致會往哪些地方拓展,以及地理區域上的機會在哪裡?
Denis Le Vot - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Denis Le Vot - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Yes. Maybe I'll take this one. We grew in North America, maybe in the US by 36 dealers this year, right? Of course, you can imagine with the momentum that we're having on our products, the growth that we're having. This movement is partially natural, if I may say, right? We are attractive to dealers, as I said before, the dealer sentiment is increasing, and we work on that.
好的。也許我來回答這題。我們今年在北美成長,在美國大概新增了 36 家經銷商,對吧?當然,你可以想像,隨著我們產品的動能、我們的成長,這個趨勢某種程度上是自然發生的,我可以這麼說,對吧?我們對經銷商很有吸引力;如我之前所說,經銷商的情緒(信心)正在提升,而我們也在這方面持續努力。
Going forward, as Seb just said, we still -- the biggest potential we're having is still in the ORV in North America and especially in the US. The momentum is right we said, right, with the HD11, with a 12% growth in the Q4. So this is something that we are hardly working on. And I would say that apart from this, we are also growing in Brazil. We are also growing in other zones of the world where we can also expand the size of our dealerships.
往前看,如同 Seb 剛剛說的,我們最大的潛力仍然在北美、尤其是美國的 ORV。動能是對的,我們也提到過,像是 HD11,以及第四季 12% 的成長。所以這是我們正在非常努力推進的事情。此外,我會說我們也在巴西成長。我們也在世界其他區域成長,在那些地方我們也能擴大經銷據點的規模。
Sebastien Martel - Chief Financial Officer
Sebastien Martel - Chief Financial Officer
And to your last question, in terms of dealer feedback, in some states in the US, we are underpenetrated, and we haven't expanded our dealer network in the last five, six years, and so we were overdue to do it. And most of the dealers that we open are actually existing dealers that decide to open a new rooftop either by acquiring a dealer and bringing in the brand or adding a rooftop. And so given this underpenetration, we're not seeing any -- a lot of friction from the existing dealer base.
至於你最後一個問題,關於經銷商回饋:在美國某些州,我們的滲透率偏低,而且過去五、六年我們沒有擴張經銷商網路,所以早就該做了。而且我們新開的多數經銷商,其實是既有經銷商決定新增一個據點(rooftop),可能是透過收購一家經銷商並導入我們品牌,或是直接新增一個據點。因此在這種滲透不足的情況下,我們並沒有看到——來自既有經銷商基礎的太多摩擦。
Mark Petrie - Analyst
Mark Petrie - Analyst
Okay, thanks. And then I just wanted to follow up and just to sort of clarify, you aren't seeing any reaction from consumers or dealers in the last month or so as macro uncertainties have elevated? Or how are those sort of conversations with the dealers gone or evolved in that time frame?
好的,謝謝。我想再追問並釐清一下:在過去一個月左右,隨著總體不確定性升高,你們沒有看到消費者或經銷商有任何反應嗎?或者說,這段期間你們與經銷商的對話是如何進行或演變的?
Denis Le Vot - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Denis Le Vot - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
No. The inventory being lower and the momentum being high, we cannot say today that we have a reaction by our dealers on that one. On the contrary, we are manufacturing as quickly as we can. From the client standpoint, remember what motorsports is, our clients are rather wealthy households. We are above $150,000 a year, but in the -- north of that to $170-something per year.
沒有。在庫存較低、動能很強的情況下,我們今天無法說經銷商對此有什麼反應。相反地,我們正以最快速度在生產。從客戶端來看,請記得動力運動(motorsports)是什麼樣的市場;我們的客戶多半是相對富裕的家庭。他們年收入通常在 15 萬美元以上,甚至——高於此到 17 萬多美元一年。
So there is probably a distance between what's happening short term and what the reaction of the market will be. So that's why with the team, we decided to have this confirming the first half of the year and being cautious on the second half of the year in our guidance.
所以短期發生的事情,與市場反應之間可能存在一些距離。因此我們團隊才決定:在指引上確認上半年表現,同時對下半年保持審慎。
Mark Petrie - Analyst
Mark Petrie - Analyst
Yeah, fair enough. Okay, I appreciate the comments. Welcome, Deni, and all the best.
好的,合理。我很感謝這些說明。歡迎你,Deni,祝一切順利。
Denis Le Vot - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Denis Le Vot - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Thanks.
謝謝。
Operator
Operator
Anthony Bonadio, Wells Fargo.
Anthony Bonadio,Wells Fargo。
Anthony Bonadio - Analyst
Anthony Bonadio - Analyst
Yeah, hey, good morning, guys. Thanks for taking our questions. So I wanted to start out with your lean value initiative. I think you guys had another $200 million to go from the original $350 million when you presented to us in October. So can you just talk about how much benefit you're expecting in fiscal '27? And maybe how you're thinking about the level of flow through there versus reinvestment at this point?
是的,嗨,各位早安。謝謝你們回答我們的問題。我想先從你們的精實價值計畫(lean value initiative)開始。我記得你們在 10 月向我們簡報時,原本是 3.5 億美元,之後又多了 2 億美元要達成。那你們能否談談在 2027 財年預期會帶來多少效益?以及目前你們如何看待其中的落袋(flow-through)比例相對於再投資?
Sebastien Martel - Chief Financial Officer
Sebastien Martel - Chief Financial Officer
Yes. Well, obviously, it's a big priority of the team to drive lean. We saw we delivered $150 million last year. The expectation this year is 100 basis points value coming from this lean initiative. So that's what's baked into the guidance.
是的。顯然,推動精實是團隊的一大優先事項。我們看到去年交付了 1.5 億美元。今年的預期是,這項精實計畫將帶來 100 個基點的價值。這已經納入我們的指引之中。
Obviously, we are facing inflation as we do every year, and the expectation is that pricing will be -- will offset inflationary costs that we see. So globally, I'm happy with how we're tracking what we're driving. And again, this year, if we deliver the 100 basis points, we'll make delivering the M28 objective certainly achievable for next year.
當然,我們像每年一樣面臨通膨,而我們的預期是定價將——將抵消我們看到的通膨成本。所以整體而言,我對我們目前的進度與推動成果感到滿意。再者,今年如果我們能交付這 100 個基點,就會讓明年達成 M28 目標變得確實可行。
Anthony Bonadio - Analyst
Anthony Bonadio - Analyst
Got it. That's helpful. And then just a follow-up question on tariffs. I know there's sort of a refund request process underway. Can you just talk about maybe how you're thinking about getting any of that money back? And just any thoughts on the time line at this point?
了解。很有幫助。接著再追問一題關於關稅。我知道目前有一個退款申請流程正在進行。你能否談談你們如何看待把那筆錢拿回來的可能性?以及目前對時間表有什麼想法?
Sebastien Martel - Chief Financial Officer
Sebastien Martel - Chief Financial Officer
Yes. We're not -- honestly, we're not in a -- obviously, we'd like to get the money as quick as possible, but we're going to -- we're still monitoring. We're going to see how the process is and the likelihood of capturing it. I'm not a big fan of spending money on lawyers if we're not able to get that money. But obviously, we won't leave any money on the table. And once the process is clearly established and the certainty is there, we will obviously file for refunds.
是的。我們目前——坦白說,我們當然希望越快拿回這筆錢越好,但我們會——我們仍在觀察。我們會看流程如何進行,以及取得退款的可能性有多大。如果拿不回那筆錢,我不太喜歡把錢花在律師身上。但顯然,我們也不會把任何錢留在桌上(不去爭取)。一旦流程明確建立、確定性到位,我們就會提出退款申請。
Anthony Bonadio - Analyst
Anthony Bonadio - Analyst
And it's not in our?
而且這不在我們的?
Sebastien Martel - Chief Financial Officer
Sebastien Martel - Chief Financial Officer
Yes, and we haven't baked that in our guidance, obviously.
是的,而且我們顯然還沒有把這個納入我們的指引。
Anthony Bonadio - Analyst
Anthony Bonadio - Analyst
Got it. Thanks so much, guys.
了解。非常感謝,各位。
Operator
Operator
Martin Landry, Stifel.
Martin Landry,Stifel。
Martin Landry - Analyst
Martin Landry - Analyst
Hi, good morning guys. I was wondering how -- if there is a correlation between industry demand and oil prices, have you looked at how the industry behaved in the past period of oil shocks? And just trying to understand a little bit if there's any at all correlations. I understand that so far, you haven't seen any impact on demand, but it would be great to have a little bit more color on if there's any correlation between oil prices and industry demand.
嗨,各位早安。我想請教一下——如果產業需求與油價之間存在關聯,你們是否研究過在過去油價衝擊期間,產業的表現如何?我只是想更了解是否真的存在任何關聯。我理解到目前為止你們尚未看到對需求的影響,但如果能多提供一些關於油價與產業需求之間是否有關聯的說明會很有幫助。
Sebastien Martel - Chief Financial Officer
Sebastien Martel - Chief Financial Officer
Yes, fair question, Martin. Obviously, when we look to the last time we saw oil prices this high was when the Ukraine war started. And we did not see an impact on demand. It's all a question of where the barrel goes, how long does it stay there? And what's the impact on the overall economy.
是的,Martin,這是個合理的問題。顯然,我們回顧上一次油價到達這麼高的時候,是烏克蘭戰爭剛開始之際。而我們並沒有看到需求受到影響。這完全取決於油價會到什麼水準、會在那裡停留多久?以及對整體經濟的影響是什麼。
I think that's the biggest factor. So there's a question of the nature. So how big it is it? The extent, how long it last and which market is being more impacted. So that's why we've preferred this morning to issue kind of a low -- a wider guidance range and provide a kind of a potential downside scenario for the back half of the year.
我認為那是最大的因素。所以這裡有一個關於性質的問題。也就是它有多大?幅度、持續多久,以及哪個市場受到的影響更大。因此我們今天早上傾向於給出較低——更寬的指引區間,並提供一個針對下半年可能的下行情境。
Martin Landry - Analyst
Martin Landry - Analyst
Okay. That's fair. And in light of that, rent has gone up a lot more than WTI. So I was wondering you're talking about your guidance assuming flat industry demand. Can you break that down between regions? Just trying to see what assumptions you've used for North America. And then what assumptions you've used for EMEA, LatAm and Asia Pacific, if possible?
好的。這很合理。而且就此而言,布蘭特(Brent)漲幅比WTI大得多。所以我想請問,你們談到指引是假設產業需求持平。你們能否按地區拆解一下?我想了解你們對北美的假設是什麼。以及如果可以的話,對EMEA、拉丁美洲與亞太的假設分別是什麼?
Sebastien Martel - Chief Financial Officer
Sebastien Martel - Chief Financial Officer
Yes. Again, I think we look at it -- we do look at it more from a macro level. Our volumes in the Middle East are quite low, less than 1%. So obviously, we were more pessimistic there. But generally, given that all consumers can be impacted from higher oil prices, from inflation, from interest rates. And given the affluency of our customers, it's pretty much standard around the world, we decided to apply a similar assumption globally.
可以。再次強調,我們看待這件事——我們確實更偏向從總體層面來看。我們在中東的銷量相當低,不到1%。所以顯然,我們在那裡會更悲觀一些。但整體而言,考量到所有消費者都可能受到更高油價、通膨與利率的影響。再加上我們客戶的富裕程度在全球大致相近,我們決定在全球採用類似的假設。
Denis Le Vot - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Denis Le Vot - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Which will still permit growth, don't misunderstand because last year, it was about snow for Europe. So hopefully, snow will be here this season. We outpaced the market even if they are flattish in Latin America and Asia. And as we said already during the call, our growth in North America will most be the market share in the ORVs in the US.
這仍然允許成長,別誤會,因為去年歐洲主要是受降雪影響。所以希望這一季會有雪。即使拉丁美洲與亞洲市場持平,我們也跑贏市場。而且如同我們在電話會議中已經提到的,我們在北美的成長主要將來自美國ORV的市占率提升。
Martin Landry - Analyst
Martin Landry - Analyst
Okay, that's helpful, and Denis, welcome.
好的,這很有幫助,Denis,歡迎加入。
Operator
Operator
Xian Siew, BNP Paribas.
Xian Siew,法國巴黎銀行(BNP Paribas)。
Xian Siew - Analyst
Xian Siew - Analyst
Hi guys, thanks for the question. I wanted to ask first about the first quarter, you talked about EBITDA being up 40%. Can you maybe give us a little bit more in terms of what's underlying -- the underlying assumptions for the quarter in terms of like revenue because it does feel like you have kind of a lot of more visibility to 1Q. So yes, just curious on some more guidance on that.
嗨,各位,謝謝讓我提問。我想先問第一季,你們提到EBITDA成長40%。你們能否多分享一些第一季背後的——例如營收等方面的基本假設?因為感覺你們對1Q的能見度更高。所以,是的,想了解更多相關指引。
Sebastien Martel - Chief Financial Officer
Sebastien Martel - Chief Financial Officer
Yes. Certainly, last year, you might recall that it was a quarter where we undershipped because of the inventory depletion, especially on personal watercraft. It's a quarter where we recorded provision related to snowmobile. It was a tough snowmobile season. So we could see revenues grow quite sizably, obviously, to drive this big growth in EBITDA.
好的。當然,你可能記得去年那一季我們因為去化庫存而出貨不足,尤其是在個人水上摩托(personal watercraft)方面。那一季我們也針對雪地摩托計提了準備。那是一個雪地摩托表現很艱難的雪季。因此我們可以看到營收相當可觀地成長,顯然也帶動EBITDA的大幅成長。
And also on year round, we'll be seeing increases as well in terms of overall revenue growth coming from the HD11, the side-by-side and also ORV. So ballpark, you could see a $300 million of revenue growth in the quarter, and that obviously is trickling down to solid EBITDA and EPS.
另外,從全年角度來看,我們也會看到整體營收成長的提升,主要來自HD11、side-by-side以及ORV。所以粗略來看,該季度你可能會看到約3億美元的營收成長,而這也會反映到穩健的EBITDA與EPS上。
Xian Siew - Analyst
Xian Siew - Analyst
Okay. Great. Then I wanted to ask about the utility segment. Obviously, you guys are making a lot of progress and the new platform is quite impressive. But just kind of wondering like the share gains, do you think it's from new customers, existing customers kind of trading up, maybe customers who entered the industry, I don't know, in 2020 and are now kind of looking to upgrade their product?
好的。很好。接著我想問公用(utility)業務。顯然你們取得了很大進展,新平台也相當令人印象深刻。但我想了解一下市占率提升,你們認為是來自新客戶、既有客戶升級換購,或是可能在2020年進入這個產業、現在想要升級產品的客戶?
Or like I'm just curious about kind of the customer base that you're attracting and if you're kind of seeing a replacement cycle in utility?
我只是好奇你們吸引到的客群類型,以及你們是否在公用領域看到一個汰換週期?
Denis Le Vot - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Denis Le Vot - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Yes. We have both actually because that's true. We are growing in the utility, which means that we are bringing more people, let's say, conquest on the market that maybe we are on the Recs part of the segment. As a global figure, I would tell you that we are bringing like 230,000 new people to our family every year, right? So we are really on the dynamic of growing our market share and growing our base of clients.
是的。其實兩者都有,因為確實如此。我們在公用領域成長,代表我們帶來更多人——可以說是在市場上「攻城略地」,而我們可能原本更偏向該細分市場中的休閒(Recs)部分。以整體來看,我會說我們每年大約為我們的大家庭帶來23萬名新客戶,對吧?所以我們確實處在提升市占率、擴大客戶基礎的動能之中。
So we are attracting people. And the offer coming to utility that we're having again on the HD11 is really a hit, right, by the vehicle, by the new 3-cylinder engine we're having, the positioning on the vehicle makes it -- I mean, a complete hit on the subsegment of the utility, and we are really producing full speed on that one.
所以我們正在吸引新客戶。而我們在公用領域推出的產品——再次以HD11為例——真的非常受歡迎,對吧?不論是車款本身、我們新的三缸引擎,以及車輛的產品定位,都讓它——我是說——在公用這個次細分市場中完全大受歡迎,而我們也正全速生產這個平台。
Xian Siew - Analyst
Xian Siew - Analyst
Okay, great, thanks and good luck. Thanks.
好的,很棒,謝謝,祝順利。謝謝。
Operator
Operator
Luke Hannan, Canaccord Genuity.
Luke Hannan,Canaccord Genuity。
Luke Hannan, CPA - Equity Analyst
Luke Hannan, CPA - Equity Analyst
Thanks, good morning, and welcome, Denis. Seb, I wanted to follow up. You mentioned as far as what you're baking in the guidance right now, I think you had said a 50 basis point tailwind from sales programs, assuming you stay within the top half of the guidance range there, what would be implied for you then to be at the lower end of the guidance range? Would you assume sort of no tailwinds from sales programs? Or would there be a headwind there?
謝謝,早安,也歡迎你,Denis。Seb,我想追問一下。你提到就目前納入指引的假設而言,我想你說過銷售方案(sales programs)帶來50個基點的順風;假設你們落在指引區間的上半部,那麼若落在指引區間的下緣,對你們而言意味著什麼?你們會假設銷售方案不再有任何順風嗎?還是會變成逆風?
Sebastien Martel - Chief Financial Officer
Sebastien Martel - Chief Financial Officer
Yes. The lower end of the guidance, obviously, it means a tougher macro, more competitiveness as well, a more promotional environment. So certainly, we would lose that tailwind of 50 basis coming from programs, and we have an impact -- have a favorable impact at the top end of the guidance coming from volume and mix of about 40 basis points and probably lose a big part of that as well.
是的。指引下緣顯然意味著總體環境更具挑戰、競爭也更激烈,以及促銷更頻繁的環境。因此,我們肯定會失去來自方案的那50個基點順風;此外,在指引上緣,我們還有來自銷量與產品組合(mix)約40個基點的正面影響,而在下緣情境下,這部分我們也可能會失去很大一部分。
Luke Hannan, CPA - Equity Analyst
Luke Hannan, CPA - Equity Analyst
Thanks, and then I wanted to follow up also with Telwater and basically just where things stand as of today and when we might expect to hear a little more on that?
謝謝,另外我也想追問Telwater,基本上目前進展如何,以及我們大概何時能聽到更多消息?
Sebastien Martel - Chief Financial Officer
Sebastien Martel - Chief Financial Officer
The -- well, as you probably saw, the Telwater business is still classified as a discontinued operation. So that means that it's still available for sale. It is a great business, great management team as well, running the operations there, probably -- revenues likely above the $100 million range with EBITDA margin potential in the low teens.
嗯——如你可能看到的,Telwater業務仍被歸類為終止營運(discontinued operation)。這表示它仍可供出售。這是一門很棒的業務,也有很棒的管理團隊在那裡負責營運;營收可能超過1億美元區間,EBITDA利潤率的潛力在10%出頭(low teens)。
So good business. We're not in a rush to sell it. So obviously, we're in the market. If there are buyers that are interested, they'll approach us but that's where we stand today.
生意非常好。我們不急著把它賣掉。所以很明顯地,我們在市場上。如果有感興趣的買家,他們會來找我們;但這就是我們目前的立場。
Luke Hannan, CPA - Equity Analyst
Luke Hannan, CPA - Equity Analyst
Great, thank you very much.
很好,非常感謝。
Operator
Operator
Tristan Thomas-Martin, BMO Capital Markets.
Tristan Thomas-Martin,BMO Capital Markets。
Tristan Thomas-Martin - Analyst
Tristan Thomas-Martin - Analyst
Hey, good morning, and Denis, looking forward to working with you. Just a question on the HD11 production kind of ramp. I think you said you're producing full speed. Does that mean you're at 100% of where you want to be? Or is that still ramping?
嗨,早安,Denis,也期待與你合作。我想問一下 HD11 產量爬坡的情況。我記得你說你們正以全速生產。這是否表示你們已達到想要的 100% 水準?還是仍在爬坡中?
Denis Le Vot - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Denis Le Vot - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
No, no. We are 100% of where we want it to be. The ramp-up is totally finished, and we are at the right level of production right now. Now I just mentioned that because this is one of the products which is a real hit on the market, and it's a good thing that we are -- most of the parts of the factory are working three shifts on this vehicle.
不,不。我們已達到我們希望的 100% 水準。爬坡已完全結束,我們目前的產量就在正確的水準。我之所以提到這點,是因為這是市場上非常熱賣的產品之一;而且很好的事情是——工廠大部分產線都在這款車上採三班制運作。
Tristan Thomas-Martin - Analyst
Tristan Thomas-Martin - Analyst
Okay. Great. And then just curious, in times of like elevated oil and gas prices, have you seen increased utility demand in those regions?
了解。很好。另外想請教,在油氣價格偏高的時期,你們是否看到那些地區的公用事業需求增加?
Sebastien Martel - Chief Financial Officer
Sebastien Martel - Chief Financial Officer
I can't say there's a high correlation. Obviously, we are -- if there were to be a slowdown, we would expect less of a slowdown in utility because of the novelty of the HD11, but there's obviously impacts on the ag market as well, on construction industry, et cetera, coming from higher oil prices. So it's difficult to call a shot as to what the actual outcome will be.
我不能說兩者有很高的相關性。很明顯地,如果真的出現放緩,我們預期公用事業(utility)領域的放緩幅度會較小,因為 HD11 的新穎性;但高油價也會對農業市場、建築產業等帶來影響。所以很難判斷實際結果會是什麼。
Denis Le Vot - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Denis Le Vot - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
That will be the global economy more, yes.
那會更取決於全球經濟,是的。
Tristan Thomas-Martin - Analyst
Tristan Thomas-Martin - Analyst
Okay, got it. Thank you.
好的,了解。謝謝。
Operator
Operator
Jaime Katz, Morningstar.
Jaime Katz,Morningstar。
Jaime Katz - Analyst
Jaime Katz - Analyst
Hi, good morning. We haven't heard too much about demand trends on premium or whether you guys have seen any sort of value-seeking behavior. So I guess if you have any color on whether attachment rates are staying consistent or if there has been any value-seeking behavior, that would be really helpful to hear about.
嗨,早安。我們沒有聽到太多關於高端(premium)需求趨勢的資訊,或是你們是否看到任何偏向追求性價比的行為。所以我想,如果你們能分享一下,例如加購/附加(attachment)比率是否維持一致,或是否出現任何追求性價比的行為,會很有幫助。
Sebastien Martel - Chief Financial Officer
Sebastien Martel - Chief Financial Officer
Sorry, Jaime, we lost you. I hope she's still there.
抱歉,Jaime,我們聽不到你。希望她還在線上。
Jaime Katz - Analyst
Jaime Katz - Analyst
I'm sorry. Can you hear me?
不好意思。你們聽得到我嗎?
Sebastien Martel - Chief Financial Officer
Sebastien Martel - Chief Financial Officer
Operator, maybe we go to the next question, and we bring back Jaime later?
接線員,我們是否先進行下一個問題,稍後再把 Jaime 接回來?
Operator
Operator
I'm able to hear Jaime.
我聽得到 Jaime。
Sebastien Martel - Chief Financial Officer
Sebastien Martel - Chief Financial Officer
Operator?
接線員?
Operator
Operator
Yes.
是的。
Jaime Katz - Analyst
Jaime Katz - Analyst
Can you guys hear me?
你們聽得到我嗎?
Operator
Operator
Hi, there.
嗨,你好。
Jaime Katz - Analyst
Jaime Katz - Analyst
Hi. You can hear me but they can't.
嗨。你聽得到我,但他們聽不到。
Operator
Operator
Correct. Yes, this is the operator. We experienced some technical difficulty, just one moment please.
正確。是的,我是接線員。我們遇到一些技術問題,請稍等片刻。
Sebastien Martel - Chief Financial Officer
Sebastien Martel - Chief Financial Officer
Operator, we can hear you now.
接線員,我們現在聽得到你了。
Operator
Operator
Perfect. Okay. And are you able to hear Jaime also?
太好了。好的。那你們也聽得到 Jaime 嗎?
Sebastien Martel - Chief Financial Officer
Sebastien Martel - Chief Financial Officer
Jaime, yes.
Jaime,是的。
Jaime Katz - Analyst
Jaime Katz - Analyst
Can you guys hear me?
你們聽得到我嗎?
Sebastien Martel - Chief Financial Officer
Sebastien Martel - Chief Financial Officer
Yes.
是的。
Jaime Katz - Analyst
Jaime Katz - Analyst
So I guess I was interested in hearing more about demand trends given your tilt to premium, whether you guys have seen any value-seeking behavior by things like have attachment rates stayed the same? Or is there anything that is changing given sort of the increasing uncertainty in the macroeconomic environment?
所以我想更了解在你們偏向高端產品的情況下,需求趨勢如何;你們是否看到任何追求性價比的行為,例如加購/附加(attachment)比率是否維持不變?或是在宏觀經濟環境不確定性增加的情況下,有沒有任何變化?
Sebastien Martel - Chief Financial Officer
Sebastien Martel - Chief Financial Officer
We haven't seen any changes. The trend has been towards more the affluent customer in the last, let's say, 12 to 18 months and that trend continues. And BRP is obviously, as you well know, position more towards the higher end. And so that consumer is, I guess, more isolated from inflationary pressures, high interest rates, et cetera. And so even that kind of shield us a bit from the potential slowdown if it were to happen.
我們沒有看到任何變化。過去大約 12 到 18 個月的趨勢是更偏向富裕客群,而這個趨勢仍在延續。而 BRP 如你所知,定位本來就更偏向高端。因此我想這類消費者相對較不受通膨壓力、高利率等影響。所以即便真的出現放緩,這也在某種程度上讓我們受到一些保護。
But nonetheless, we monitor overall retail trends continuously to make sure that we understand where the trend is going towards.
不過,我們仍會持續監控整體零售趨勢,以確保我們了解趨勢走向。
Jaime Katz - Analyst
Jaime Katz - Analyst
Yes. And I guess on that note, is there -- has there been any difference in mix in finance versus cash purchases?
是的。那在這點上,融資與現金購買的組合是否有任何差異?
Sebastien Martel - Chief Financial Officer
Sebastien Martel - Chief Financial Officer
No. Generally, we still see about 30% of the retail financing going through our dedicated partners. FICO scores remain high. And so I haven't seen any changes between this quarter and any previous quarters.
沒有。一般而言,我們仍看到約 30% 的零售融資是透過我們的專屬合作夥伴進行。FICO 分數仍然很高。所以我沒有看到本季與過去任何季度之間有差異。
Jaime Katz - Analyst
Jaime Katz - Analyst
Great, helpful, thank you guys so much.
很好,很有幫助,真的非常感謝各位。
Operator
Operator
Cameron Doerksen, National Bank.
Cameron Doerksen,National Bank。
Cameron Doerksen - Analyst
Cameron Doerksen - Analyst
Yeah, thanks. Good morning. A question on free cash flow. You had a very strong year in fiscal '26. There was a fairly nice tailwind from working capital. So just wondering what your expectations here are for fiscal '27 on free cash flow and what we should expect from the working capital?
是,謝謝。早安。我想問自由現金流。你們在 2026 財年表現非常強勁。營運資金帶來了相當不錯的順風。所以想請教你們對 2027 財年自由現金流的預期,以及營運資金方面我們應該如何看待?
Sebastien Martel - Chief Financial Officer
Sebastien Martel - Chief Financial Officer
Yes. It depends on where we land on the guidance, but we're expecting another strong year next year on free cash flow, maybe in the range of, let's say, $750 million to $800 million. CapEx, in the $400 million range, as you saw. So another good year next year.
是的。這取決於我們最終落在指引的哪個位置,但我們預期明年自由現金流仍會是強勁的一年,可能大約在 7.5 億到 8 億美元的區間。資本支出(CapEx)如你所見,大約在 4 億美元左右。所以明年也會是很不錯的一年。
Cameron Doerksen - Analyst
Cameron Doerksen - Analyst
Okay. And in that context, it looks like you're going to continue to build cash on the balance sheet. So obviously, you've announced the dividend increase this morning. But I guess where are the capital allocation priorities here? I mean the CapEx is fairly stable. But just wondering what your expectation is here for capital deployment?
好的。在這樣的背景下,看起來你們會持續在資產負債表上累積現金。你們今天早上也宣布提高股利。但我想問資本配置的優先順序是什麼?我的意思是,CapEx 相對穩定。只是想了解你們對資本運用的預期。
Sebastien Martel - Chief Financial Officer
Sebastien Martel - Chief Financial Officer
Yes. We've strengthened further the balance sheet last year with debt refund and debt maturity extension. So we're obviously in a very good position. We still have 2.6 million shares to repurchase under the NCIB, and our intention is to be active on that front.
是的。去年我們透過債務再融資以及延長債務到期日,進一步強化了資產負債表。所以我們顯然處於非常好的位置。在 NCIB(正常發行人買回)項下,我們仍有 260 萬股可回購,我們的意圖是在這方面積極進行。
Denis Le Vot - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Denis Le Vot - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
And as I said -- sorry, Denis speaking, and this gives us a solid ground to prepare the next plan that we will be preparing during the year.
另外如我所說——抱歉,我是 Denis——這也讓我們有穩固的基礎,去準備我們將在今年內制定的下一個計畫。
Cameron Doerksen - Analyst
Cameron Doerksen - Analyst
Absolutely. No, it's a good position to be in. So thanks very much.
完全同意。不,這確實是個很好的位置。非常感謝。
Operator
Operator
Alice Wycklendt, Baird.
Alice Wycklendt,Baird。
Alice Wycklendt - Analyst
Alice Wycklendt - Analyst
Yeah, good morning, gentlemen. Thanks for taking my questions. I wanted to touch in a little more detail on the utility side-by-side segment and particularly that CAB category that you called out. Maybe just provide a little more detail on the impact that that's having and how long you think momentum can be sustained in that product category?
是的,早安,各位先生。謝謝回答我的問題。我想更深入談一下公用事業(utility)side-by-side(並排座)細分市場,特別是你們提到的 CAB 類別。能否請你們更詳細說明它帶來的影響,以及你們認為這個產品類別的動能可以維持多久?
Sebastien Martel - Chief Financial Officer
Sebastien Martel - Chief Financial Officer
Well, it's a trend we've seen over the last few years, and we've invested one in capacity because it's different to build a CAB unit than a non-CAB unit in the plant. So we have invested in capacity. And the new Defender platform was designed around it being a CAB units, so that specifically design purpose. What we're seeing is that consumers are seeking automotive features more and more in the vehicles. So obviously, an enclosed space, heating, air conditioning, connectivity, and that's what we're offering.
嗯,這是我們過去幾年看到的趨勢;我們也在產能上投入,因為在工廠裡製造 CAB 車型與非 CAB 車型是不同的。所以我們已投資擴充產能。而新的 Defender 平台在設計時就是以 CAB 車型為核心,因此是有明確設計目的的。我們看到的是,消費者越來越希望車輛具備更多汽車化的功能。所以很明顯地,封閉式空間、暖氣、空調、連線功能,這些都是我們所提供的。
And now the HD11 was the first model on the new platform. And obviously, we will be introducing other models in the HD10, HD8 in the coming years. And so that obviously is going to increase the addressable market that we have. So we expect continued growth on the utility segment for the next few years.
而現在,HD11 是新平台上的第一個機型。而且很明顯地,我們將在未來幾年推出 HD10、HD8 的其他機型。因此,這顯然會擴大我們可觸及的市場規模。所以我們預期未來幾年公用事業(utility)細分市場將持續成長。
Alice Wycklendt - Analyst
Alice Wycklendt - Analyst
Thanks. That's helpful. And then maybe just checking the box on guidance, what kind of interest rate assumptions are embedded in your outlook?
謝謝。這很有幫助。另外,關於指引我想再確認一下,你們的展望中內含了哪些利率假設?
Sebastien Martel - Chief Financial Officer
Sebastien Martel - Chief Financial Officer
We've assumed a flat interest rate compared to this year. No changes in the Federal Reserve rates.
我們假設利率與今年持平。聯準會利率不變。
Alice Wycklendt - Analyst
Alice Wycklendt - Analyst
Great. Thank you.
很好。謝謝你。
Operator
Operator
Catherine Sung, TD Cowen.
TD Cowen 的 Catherine Sung。
Catherine Sung - Analyst
Catherine Sung - Analyst
Just a follow-up on the margin guidance. Should the EV rightsizing be a benefit to the margin outlook?
就毛利率指引再追問一下。電動車(EV)規模調整(rightsizing)是否會對毛利率展望有利?
Sebastien Martel - Chief Financial Officer
Sebastien Martel - Chief Financial Officer
It is a benefit. We -- last year, we were investing in the launching of the 2-wheel products. And so when you look at the overall EBITDA margin growth that we're planning this year compared to last year, yes, EV is a tailwind of about 50 basis points. which is going to be offset by investments that we are making on the M28 plan, i.e., R&D, so product lineup despite having a very fresh lineup.
是有利的。我們——去年我們在投資推出兩輪產品。因此,當你看我們今年相較去年所規劃的整體 EBITDA 利潤率成長時,是的,EV 帶來約 50 個基點的順風;但這將被我們在 M28 計畫上的投資所抵銷,也就是研發(R&D),因此即便產品線非常新,我們仍會投入產品陣容。
We're going to continue investing and also on the sales organization and network organization as well. So we're expecting no operational leverage coming from OpEx investments this year versus last year. So yes, a tailwind, but compensated by other investments.
我們也會持續投資於銷售組織與通路(network)組織。因此,我們預期今年相較去年不會因營業費用(OpEx)投資而產生營運槓桿。所以是順風,但會被其他投資所抵銷。
Catherine Sung - Analyst
Catherine Sung - Analyst
Okay, thank you.
好的,謝謝。
Operator
Operator
Gerrick Johnson, Seaport Research.
Seaport Research 的 Gerrick Johnson。
Gerrick Johnson - Analyst
Gerrick Johnson - Analyst
Good morning. Thank you, Denis, welcome. So maybe a finer point on the oil impact on costs, Sebastien. Can you remind us the percent of cost of goods sold that shipping would be? And then also resins? And then how far are those contracted out? How locked in are you on those prices?
早安。謝謝你,Denis,歡迎加入。Sebastien,想更精準地問一下油價對成本的影響。你能提醒我們運輸費用大約占銷貨成本(COGS)的百分之多少嗎?還有樹脂(resins)呢?另外,這些合約鎖定到多遠?你們在這些價格上鎖定的程度有多高?
Sebastien Martel - Chief Financial Officer
Sebastien Martel - Chief Financial Officer
Yes. From a commodity point of view, we do have long-term agreements with our suppliers. And so we are pretty much hedged. And obviously, freight costs, I probably won't go in too much detail for competitive reasons, but it is an important part of our business. And as I mentioned, going from $60 to $100 per barrel is a 60 basis point impact on our business, Gerrick.
是的。從大宗商品的角度來看,我們與供應商有長期協議。因此我們基本上已做避險。至於運費,我可能基於競爭因素不會講太多細節,但它確實是我們業務的重要部分。如我提到的,油價從每桶 60 美元到 100 美元,對我們業務的影響是 60 個基點,Gerrick。
Gerrick Johnson - Analyst
Gerrick Johnson - Analyst
Okay. Okay. You're going to make us do the math. That's fine. On utility --
好的。好的。你要我們自己算數學。沒問題。關於公用事業(utility)——
Sebastien Martel - Chief Financial Officer
Sebastien Martel - Chief Financial Officer
Given you're back, I'll have you work a bit.
既然你回來了,我就讓你多做點功課。
Gerrick Johnson - Analyst
Gerrick Johnson - Analyst
Thanks. On utility back, on that topic, are your dealers seeing any sort of impact or increase in demand for utility from businesses, farmers, ranchers, et cetera, owing to the reinstatement of bonus depreciation of 100% in the US?
謝謝。回到公用事業(utility)這個主題,你們的經銷商是否看到因美國恢復 100% 額外折舊(bonus depreciation)而使企業、農民、牧場主等對公用事業產品的需求受到影響或增加?
Sebastien Martel - Chief Financial Officer
Sebastien Martel - Chief Financial Officer
Yes. Well, certainly, that has been a driver for small businesses as well and not just, call it, the commercial business. And we also have commercial programs in place to drive awareness on that consumer group. And so yes, we are seeing a benefit coming from, we'll call it, the commercial business. It's 100% driven by the accelerated depreciation. I don't know. But certainly, it's an area that we focused on.
是的。嗯,這當然也一直是小型企業的驅動因素,而不只是所謂的商用(commercial)業務。我們也有商用方案來提升該消費族群的認知。所以是的,我們確實看到來自商用業務的助益。是否 100% 都是由加速折舊所驅動?我不確定。但這確實是我們聚焦的領域。
Gerrick Johnson - Analyst
Gerrick Johnson - Analyst
Fantastic. Thank you very much.
太棒了。非常感謝。
Sebastien Martel - Chief Financial Officer
Sebastien Martel - Chief Financial Officer
Thank you, Gary. Welcome back.
謝謝你,Gary。歡迎回來。
Operator
Operator
Jonathan Goldman, Scotiabank.
Scotiabank 的 Jonathan Goldman。
Jonathan Goldman - Analyst
Jonathan Goldman - Analyst
Hey, good morning team, and thanks for taking my questions. Most of them have been asked, but just maybe to put a finer point on it, the walk to margin expansion, gross margin expansion year-on-year. Can you remind me of the drivers there? There's a tailwind from lower promo freight headwind of 60 bps and a volume mix tailwind to 40 bps. Is that right?
各位早安,謝謝回答我的問題。大多數都已被問過了,但我想更精準地釐清一下:推動利潤率擴張、也就是毛利率年對年擴張的拆解。你能提醒我主要驅動因素嗎?有較低促銷的順風、運費 60 個基點的逆風,以及量/組合 40 個基點的順風。是這樣嗎?
Sebastien Martel - Chief Financial Officer
Sebastien Martel - Chief Financial Officer
Yes. Let me give you the color -- let me give you the EBITDA margin bridge. But OpEx stable year-over-year as a percentage. Volume and mix, a tailwind of 40 bps. Sales program, 50 bps. Pricing, net of inflation, that's a wash. Lean cost improvement, 100 bps. Overhead investments in the gross margin, about 40 bps negative. So that brings us to 150 bps.
是的。我補充一些細節——我給你 EBITDA 利潤率的橋接。但營業費用(OpEx)占比年對年持平。量與組合帶來 40 個基點的順風。銷售方案(sales program)50 個基點。定價扣除通膨後,基本持平。精實成本改善(lean cost improvement)100 個基點。計入毛利的間接費用投資(overhead investments)約負 40 個基點。合計帶來 150 個基點。
And then the recent events that we talked about oil prices being higher at 60 bps. So at the top end of the guidance range, we're looking at a number just shy of 14% EBITDA margin. And at the lower end of the guidance, we're about just north of 13%.
然後是我們剛談到的近期事件:油價較高帶來 60 個基點的影響。因此在指引區間上緣,我們看到的 EBITDA 利潤率略低於 14%。在指引下緣,約略高於 13%。
Jonathan Goldman - Analyst
Jonathan Goldman - Analyst
Okay. That's helpful. And then maybe another one on the competitive environment. I know you've baked in some conservatism to the guide kind of a wide range of outcomes. But have you seen any other competitors maybe move quicker to try and respond to consumer anxiety and kind of lower prices to take some share ahead of any sort of headwinds?
好的。這很有幫助。再問一個關於競爭環境的問題。我知道你們在指引中納入了一些保守假設,因此結果區間較寬。但你們是否看到其他競爭對手更快採取行動,試圖回應消費者焦慮,並透過降價在任何逆風出現前搶占一些市占?
Sebastien Martel - Chief Financial Officer
Sebastien Martel - Chief Financial Officer
No, we haven't seen anything, given I think the big plus we have as an industry is that everyone has been diligent in reducing inventories over the last 18 months. And so I think it positions everyone and the industry in a good position to face a potential downside if it were to happen.
沒有,我們沒有看到這種情況。我認為我們這個產業的一大優勢是,過去 18 個月大家都很努力地降低庫存。因此我認為這讓所有公司與整個產業都處於良好位置,以因應若真的發生的潛在下行情境。
Jonathan Goldman - Analyst
Jonathan Goldman - Analyst
And then I guess related to that last one on the industry inventory, could you give us an update on where we are versus current and noncurrent and maybe it's obviously defers by product line?
那我想延伸上一題,關於產業庫存,你能否更新一下目前相較於當期(current)與非當期(noncurrent)的狀況?當然不同產品線會有差異。
Sebastien Martel - Chief Financial Officer
Sebastien Martel - Chief Financial Officer
Yes. I did share a bit of comments earlier, but snowmobile there's -- we're in a decent shape. Obviously, spring has -- winter has decided to hang around a bit longer than we all would like. And obviously, that helps on the snowmobile side. But personal watercraft, some OEMs have a bit more noncurrent inventory.
可以。我先前已分享一些評論,但雪地摩托車方面——我們狀況還不錯。很明顯地,春天——冬天決定多待一陣子,比我們所有人希望的都更久。而這顯然對雪地摩托車有幫助。但個人水上摩托(personal watercraft)方面,有些 OEM 的非當期庫存稍多。
And so that's going to probably hurt our market share for the next season. But generally, aside from a few small OEMs, the overall ORV inventory is in good shape.
因此這可能會在下一個季節傷害我們的市占。但整體而言,除了少數小型 OEM 之外,整體 ORV(越野車)庫存狀況良好。
Jonathan Goldman - Analyst
Jonathan Goldman - Analyst
Okay, that's a good color. I'll get back in queue. Thanks.
好的,這些補充很有幫助。我回到排隊等候。謝謝。
Sebastien Martel - Chief Financial Officer
Sebastien Martel - Chief Financial Officer
Thank you.
謝謝。
Operator
Operator
And there are no more questions. I will turn the call back over to Mr. Deschenes to close the meeting.
目前沒有更多問題。我將把電話交回給 Deschenes 先生做結語。
Philippe Deschênes - Director - Investor Relations
Philippe Deschênes - Director - Investor Relations
Thank you, Julie, and thanks, everyone, for joining us this morning and for your interest in BRP. We look forward to speaking with you again on May 28 for our first quarter conference call. Thanks, again, everyone, and have a good day.
謝謝你,Julie,也謝謝各位今天早上參與並關注 BRP。我們期待在 5 月 28 日第一季法說電話會議再次與各位交流。再次感謝各位,祝大家有美好的一天。