Krispy Kreme Inc (DNUT) 2024 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Thanks for standing by. My name is Regina, and I will be your conference operator today. At this time, I'd like to welcome everyone to the Krispy Kreme fourth quarter 2024 earnings call. I would now like to turn the call over to Dre Eldridge, Krispy Kreme Investor Relations. Please go ahead.

感謝您的支持。我叫 Regina，今天我將擔任您的會議主持人。現在，我歡迎大家參加 Krispy Kreme 2024 年第四季財報電話會議。現在我想將電話轉給 Krispy Kreme 投資者關係部的 Dre Eldridge。請繼續。

Thank you. Good morning, everyone. Welcome to Krispy Kreme's fourth quarter 2024 earnings call. Thank you for joining us today. We will be referencing our earnings press release and presentation during the call. These are available on our investor relations website at investors.krispykreme.com.

謝謝。大家早安。歡迎參加 Krispy Kreme 2024 年第四季財報電話會議。感謝您今天加入我們。我們將在電話會議中引用我們的收益新聞稿和簡報。這些資訊可在我們的投資者關係網站 investors.krispykreme.com 上查閱。

Joining me on the call this morning are President and Chief Executive Officer, Josh Charlesworth; and Chief Financial Officer, Jeremiah Ashukian. After prepared remarks, there will be a question and answer session.

今天早上與我一起參加電話會議的還有總裁兼執行長 Josh Charlesworth；和財務長 Jeremiah Ashukian。準備好的發言後，將有一個問答環節。

Before we begin, I would like to remind you that during this call we will be making forward-looking statements pursuant to the Safe Harbor provisions of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995, including statements of expectations, future events, or future financial performance.

在我們開始之前，我想提醒您，在本次電話會議中，我們將根據 1995 年《私人證券訴訟改革法》的安全港條款做出前瞻性陳述，包括預期、未來事件或未來財務業績的陳述。

Forward-looking statements involve a number of risks, assumptions, and uncertainties, and we caution investors that many factors could cause actual results to differ materially from those contained in any forward-looking statements.

前瞻性陳述涉及許多風險、假設和不確定性，我們提醒投資者，許多因素可能導致實際結果與任何前瞻性陳述中的結果有重大差異。

These factors and other risks and uncertainties are described in detail in the company's Form 10-K case filed with the SEC and in the other filings we make from time to time with the SEC.

這些因素和其他風險和不確定性在公司向美國證券交易委員會提交的 10-K 表格以及我們不時向美國證券交易委員會提交的其他文件中有詳細描述。

Forward-looking statements made today are only as of today. The company assumes no obligation to publicly update or revise any forward-looking statements, except that may be required by law.

今天所做的前瞻性陳述僅截至今天才有效。除法律要求外，本公司不承擔公開更新或修改任何前瞻性聲明的義務。

Additionally, we will be referring to non-GAAP financial measures. Please refer to our earnings press release and presentation on our website for additional information regarding those non-GAAP measures, including a reconciliation to the closest comparable GAAP measures. Jeremiah will take us through our financial performance in a moment. But first, here's Josh.

此外，我們將參考非公認會計準則財務指標。有關這些非 GAAP 指標的更多資訊（包括與最接近的可比較 GAAP 指標的對帳），請參閱我們網站上的收益新聞稿和介紹。耶利米馬上就會向我們介紹我們的財務表現。但首先，這是喬希。

Thanks, Dre. Good morning everyone, and thank you for joining us. We delivered our eighteenth consecutive quarter of organic sales growth, despite the cybersecurity incident we disclosed in December. I want to take a moment to thank our hardworking Krispy Kremers for their resilience through the disruption and acknowledge their unwavering dedication to our customers.

謝謝，德雷。大家早安，感謝大家的參與。儘管我們在 12 月揭露了網路安全事件，但我們仍連續第 18 個季度實現了有機銷售額成長。我想花點時間感謝我們辛勤工作的 Krispy Kremers 在疫情期間的堅韌表現，並感謝他們為我們的客戶做出的堅定奉獻。

As I reflect on 2024, I'm pleased that we delivered 21% revenue growth in our expanding US delivered fresh daily network and surpassed $250 million in sales for the first time through this channel.

回顧 2024 年，我很高興我們不斷擴大的美國每日新鮮配送網路實現了 21% 的營收成長，並透過該通路首次突破 2.5 億美元的銷售額。

We're now operating in 40 countries around the world with an established pipeline of franchise market growth. We also reached several strategic milestones in our transformation to becoming a bigger and better Krispy Kreme.

目前，我們的業務已遍佈全球 40 個國家，並擁有成熟的特許經營市場成長管道。我們在向更大、更好的 Krispy Kreme 轉型的過程中也達到了幾個戰略里程碑。

We simplified the business by divesting a majority stake in Insomnia Cookies. We added national distribution partners in the US, and we restructured our management teams to fully focus on our largest growth opportunities, profitable US delivered fresh daily expansion, and the wider adoption of our capital line international franchise model.

我們透過剝離 Insomnia Cookies 的多數股權來簡化業務。我們在美國增加了國家分銷合作夥伴，並重組了管理團隊，以完全專注於我們最大的成長機會、盈利的美國每天提供新鮮的擴張，以及更廣泛地採用我們的資本線國際特許經營模式。

Our transformation continues in 2025 with clear business priorities that are rooted in our strategy. We are spotlighting our core offerings. Our focus is on growing with national distribution partners. We expect the sooner work contracts to outsource US logistics. We have begun a process to evaluate re-franchising certain international markets. And we are strengthening our performance-based culture.

2025 年，我們將繼續進行轉型，並制定根植於我們策略的明確業務重點。我們正在重點介紹我們的核心產品。我們的重點是與國家分銷合作夥伴共同成長。我們期望盡快簽訂工作合約以外包美國物流。我們已經開始評估重新特許經營某些國際市場的流程。我們正在加強基於績效的文化。

Now I'll walk you through these priorities. Our iconic brand is a distinctive and undeniable asset, delivering more than 100 billion media impressions last year. Far more than businesses of a comparable size.

現在我將向大家介紹這些優先事項。我們的標誌性品牌是一項獨特且不可否認的資產，去年其媒體曝光量超過 1000 億次。遠超過同等規模的企業。

In the fourth quarter, our team boosted consumer engagement with creative marketing, particularly through a viral Grinch video series promoting our Grinch Christmas specialty doughnut collection. And earlier this month, our Valentine's Day collection led to the biggest US retail sales day ever.

在第四季度，我們的團隊透過創意行銷提高了消費者的參與度，特別是透過病毒式傳播的格林奇影片系列來宣傳我們的格林奇聖誕特色甜甜圈系列。本月初，我們的情人節系列產品創下了美國零售業有史以來的最大單日銷售額。

This buzz not only creates awareness among Krispy Kreme fans, but it converts to sales. To maximize this conversion in 2025, our most beloved and affordable Original Glazed doughnuts will get the spotlight as we evolve our marketing efforts, simplify pricing, and focus on value-conscious consumers who we know are under pressure.

這種熱議不僅提高了 Krispy Kreme 粉絲的認知度，也轉化為了銷售量。為了在 2025 年最大限度地實現這一轉化，隨著我們不斷改進營銷力度、簡化定價並專注於我們知道面臨壓力的注重價值的消費者，我們最受歡迎且價格實惠的原味釉面甜甜圈將成為焦點。

For example, we plan to bring everyday value by offering additional savings for purchases of two or more dozen. Although we will offer fewer days overall on discount, we will use meaningful discounts to drive demand on days like National Doughnut Day that we can turn into buzzworthy events.

例如，我們計劃透過為購買兩打或兩打以上商品的顧客提供額外優惠來提供每日價值。雖然我們整體的折扣天數會減少，但我們會透過有意義的折扣來推動需求，例如全國甜甜圈日，以便將其打造成熱門活動。

We continue to expand availability in 2024 as we grew global points of access by 24%. In the US, we added more than 2,800 new doors with national partners such as McDonald's, Kroger, Publix, and Target who are eager to expand with us nationally.

隨著全球接入點數量增加 24%，我們將在 2024 年繼續擴大可用性。在美國，我們與麥當勞、Kroger、Publix 和 Target 等全國合作夥伴新增了 2,800 多家門市，他們渴望與我們一起在全國擴張。

Internationally, company-owned points of access also increased 14% driven by Australia and Canada. This very morning, we launched daily deliveries to approximately 500 McDonald's restaurants in the greater New York City area and remain on track to reach about 6,000 restaurants by year end.

在國際上，受澳洲和加拿大的推動，公司擁有的接入點也增加了 14%。今天早上，我們開始向大紐約地區約 500 家麥當勞餐廳提供每日送餐服務，並預計在年底前覆蓋約 6,000 家餐廳。

In 2025, we expect to continue our US expansion with national partners, both existing and new (technical difficulty), for example, Costco. An added benefit of this expansion with national partners is the opportunity to identify and close existing underperforming doors which we expect to do in 2025.

2025 年，我們預計將與現有和新的（技術難度）國家合作夥伴（例如 Costco）繼續在美國擴張。與國家合作夥伴進行此次擴張的另一個好處是，我們有機會識別並關閉現有的表現不佳的門市，我們預計這一目標將在 2025 年實現。

While much of this growth is enabled by existing capacity, growing into new and underserved geographies will be supported by adding hubs with spokes, of which we now have 158.

雖然這種增長很大程度上是由現有容量實現的，但向新的和服務不足的地區擴張將需要透過增加帶有輻射的樞紐來支持，目前我們擁有 158 個帶有輻射的樞紐。

We expect to build five to seven of these in 2025 in areas like Minneapolis, keeping our expansion on track. Through this growth, we will increase doughnut volumes at existing production hubs which is expected to improve productivity and profitability.

我們預計到 2025 年將在明尼阿波利斯等地區建造五到七座這樣的工廠，以確保我們的擴張順利進行。透過這一成長，我們將增加現有生產中心的甜甜圈產量，預計這將提高生產力和獲利能力。

As we become bigger, we must also become better. We are addressing the increased complexities that accompany growth by simplifying the businesses, focusing on what we do best, making doughnuts.

隨著我們變得更強大，我們也必須變得更強大。我們正在透過簡化業務、專注於我們最擅長的領域（製作甜甜圈）來解決伴隨成長而來的日益複雜的問題。

Now recent pilots confirmed that third party logistics achieved excellent service levels and provided predictable logistics costs. We expect to soon award contracts to several national and regional carriers to outsource US logistics. We are aiming to outsource more than half of our DFD deliveries by year end.

目前，最近的試點證實，第三方物流實現了卓越的服務水準並提供了可預測的物流成本。我們預計很快將合約授予幾家國家和地區的承運商，以外包美國物流。我們的目標是到今年年底將一半以上的 DFD 交付外包。

Our most profitable capital line international franchise business grew points of access by 8% in 2024. Those have expanded in markets such as France and South Korea.

我們最賺錢的資本線國際特許經營業務的接入點在 2024 年增長了 8%。這些產品已在法國和韓國等市場擴張。

For example, our franchise partner in France has rapidly grown to 19 doughnut shops across Paris and plans to add another 50 points of access as they enter the DFD channel in 2025. This franchise model is the most capital efficient way for us to grow internationally. And so we've begun the process to evaluate re-franchising certain international markets.

例如，我們在法國的特許經營合作夥伴已迅速發展到在巴黎擁有 19 家甜甜圈店，併計劃在 2025 年進入 DFD 渠道後再增加 50 個接入點。這種特許經營模式是我們實現國際化發展的最具資本效率的方式。因此，我們已經開始評估重新特許經營某些國際市場的流程。

We also expect to open in two, four new countries with franchise partners including Brazil and Spain in 2025. Between all international and US markets, we anticipate reaching more than 23,000 points of access by year end.

我們也預計在 2025 年與巴西和西班牙等特許經營合作夥伴在兩個或四個新國家開設門市。在所有國際和美國市場之間，我們預計到年底將達到超過 23,000 個接入點。

An important initiative this year is strengthening our performance-based culture. We have launched new incentive-based compensation in the field focused on results-oriented metrics such as consumer satisfaction and materials efficiency. We're also investing in operations leadership and simplifying shop employee and manager roles to support our Krispy Kremers.

今年的一項重要舉措是加強我們的績效文化。我們在該領域推出了新的基於激勵的薪酬制度，重點關注以消費者滿意度和材料效率等結果為導向的指標。我們還投資於營運領導力並簡化商店員工和經理的角色以支持我們的 Krispy Kremers。

I believe that delivering on these priorities in 2025 will result in a bigger and better Krispy Kreme. With that, I'll pass it over to Jeremiah.

我相信，2025 年實現這些優先事項將使 Krispy Kreme 變得更大更好。說完這些，我就把它交給耶利米。

Thanks, Josh. I'll cover our fourth quarter results, which, as Josh has mentioned, were impacted by the cybersecurity incident. Excluding the estimated impacts from the cyber incident, results were largely in line with our expectations.

謝謝，喬希。我將介紹我們的第四季度業績，正如喬希所提到的，該業績受到了網路安全事件的影響。排除網路事件的預期影響，結果基本上符合我們的預期。

The incident affected business operations, including online ordering, materials replenishment, and labor planning. We estimate the incident impact of revenue for the quarter by $11 million with an estimated adjusted EBITDA impact of $10 million driven by the margin from lost sales and operational inefficiencies resulting in higher ingredient waste and elevated labor hours.

該事件影響了業務運營，包括線上訂購、物料補充和勞動力規劃。我們估計該事件對本季營收的影響為 1,100 萬美元，估計調整後的 EBITDA 影響為 1,000 萬美元，這是由於銷售損失和營運效率低下導致的原料浪費增加和工時增加所致。

Insurance is expected to offset a portion of these costs and losses. And we continue to believe this will not have a material impact on the long-term trajectory of the business.

保險有望抵消部分成本和損失。我們仍然相信這不會對業務的長期發展產生重大影響。

Today, systems are operational following great work from our teams, both internal and external, who worked tirelessly to ensure that our shops were running and that our systems came back online safely and efficiently.

如今，經過我們內部和外部團隊的辛勤工作，系統已投入運行，他們孜孜不倦地工作，確保我們的商店正常運轉，並確保我們的系統安全高效地恢復上線。

Net revenue was $404 million for the fourth quarter, driven by deliver fresh daily growth. We marked our first quarter with over $100 billion in global deliver fresh daily revenue, underscoring the value of our omnichannel strategy.

受每日新鮮事物成長的推動，第四季淨收入為 4.04 億美元。我們第一季的全球每日新鮮交付收入超過 1000 億美元，凸顯了我們的全通路策略的價值。

Organic revenue grew 1.8% despite an estimated 280-basis-point headwind from the cybersecurity incident. Organic revenue was driven by global points of access growth of 24%.

儘管網路安全事件預計帶來 280 個基點的不利影響，但有機收入仍增加了 1.8%。有機收入是由全球接入點 24% 的成長所推動的。

Adjusted EBITDA declined to $45.9 million primarily linked to an estimated $10 million dollar impact from the cyber incident, as well as the sale of a majority stake in Insomnia Cookies. Adjusted EBITDA margin was 11.4% with an estimated 210-basis-point impact from the incident.

調整後的 EBITDA 下降至 4,590 萬美元，主要原因是網路事件造成的約 1,000 萬美元影響，以及 Insomnia Cookies 多數股權的出售。調整後的 EBITDA 利潤率為 11.4%，預計該事件的影響為 210 個基點。

Turning to our US segment results. Organic revenue declined 1.2%, primarily linked to an estimated 460-basis-point impact from the cybersecurity incident.

談到我們美國分部的表現。有機收入下降 1.2%，主要與網路安全事件造成的約 460 個基點的影響有關。

Adjusted EBITDA was $23.6 million lowered by an estimated $10 million of the headwinds from the cyber incident and from the sale of a majority stake Insomnia Cookies.

調整後的 EBITDA 為 2,360 萬美元，由於網路事件和出售 Insomnia Cookies 多數股權的不利影響，預計減少 1,000 萬美元。

DFD expansion strategy continues as points of access growth accelerated to 34% year over year, progressing with several major national accounts. Average revenue per door per week, or APD, was $631 down slightly from the prior year as expected, given the changing customer mix.

DFD 擴張策略仍在繼續，接入點成長率年增 34%，並與幾個主要的國家帳戶取得進展。考慮到客戶結構的變化，每週每門平均收入（APD）比上年略有下降，為 631 美元，符合預期。

For example, large scale Walmart doors, which have an APD that is higher than the segment average, represent approximately 15% of our USDFD doors down from 19% in the year ago period despite net growth with Walmart in that time frame.

例如，大型沃爾瑪門的 APD 高於細分市場平均值，占我們 USDFD 門的約 15%，低於去年同期的 19%，儘管在此期間沃爾瑪實現了淨增長。

Looking into 2025, we anticipate revenue growth as we expand our DFD network partly dampened by consumer pressures. From a profitability perspective, we expect margin compression in the front half due to lingering impacts of the cybersecurity incident on laborers and material management in Q1 specifically. And long-term business investments with revenue growth and hub and spoke efficiencies is expected to deliver operating leverage in the second half.

展望 2025 年，我們預期營收將隨著 DFD 網路的擴大而成長，但部分原因是受到消費者壓力的影響。從獲利能力的角度來看，我們預計上半年利潤率將會受到壓縮，因為網路安全事件對第一季的勞動力和材料管理的持續影響。預計收入成長和樞紐輻射效率的長期業務投資將在下半年帶來營運槓桿。

Within our equity owned international markets, organic revenue grew 7.8% year over year, led by Canada and Japan. On access grew 14% fueled by DFD revenue growth of 21% as we continue to execute against our hub and spoke strategy.

在我們擁有股權的國際市場中，有機收入年增 7.8%，其中加拿大和日本的成長率最高。由於我們繼續執行中心輻射策略，訪問量成長了 14%，這得益於 DFD 收入成長了 21%。

Adjusted EBITDA was $25.7 million with the adjusted EBITDA margin down to 18.6%, largely due to continued pressure in the UK. As mentioned on the third quarter call, we have a new management team in the UK who have just completed their first quarter with the business.

調整後的 EBITDA 為 2,570 萬美元，調整後的 EBITDA 利潤率下降至 18.6%，這主要是由於英國持續的壓力。正如在第三季電話會議上提到的，我們在英國有一個新的管理團隊，他們剛剛完成了第一季的業務。

The team remains laser focused, implementing plans to return this key market to profitable growth. The team are continuing to right size the production network, work on core range, including strengthening Original Glaze, which is underrepresented in that market. In addition to piloting different price points and different channels to ensure value for the consumer.

該團隊始終保持專注，實施計劃以使這個關鍵市場恢復盈利增長。該團隊正在繼續調整生產網路的規模，致力於核心產品系列，包括加強在該市場代表性不足的 Original Glaze。除了試行不同的價格點和不同的管道以確保消費者的價值。

Elsewhere, markets such as Canada and Japan continue to deliver strong results driven by the OG donut, with both markets improving margins year over year driven by strong consumer-centric execution.

在其他地區，加拿大和日本等市場在 OG 甜甜圈的推動下繼續取得強勁業績，在強有力的以消費者為中心的執行力推動下，這兩個市場的利潤率均逐年提高。

In our most profitable segment, market development, organic revenue declined 0.7% due to timing of equipment sales. Adjusted EBITDA margin improved again to 57.8%. Linked to favorable sales and SG&A improvements.

在我們最賺錢的市場開發部門，由於設備銷售時機原因，有機收入下降了 0.7%。調整後的 EBITDA 利潤率再次提高至 57.8%。與良好的銷售業績和銷售、一般及行政費用 (SG&A) 改善相關。

Adjusted earnings per share for the year was $0.11, driven lower by depreciation and amortization as well as interest expense. We also estimate the 2024 cyber incident had a $0.04 impact to adjusted EPS.

全年調整後每股收益為 0.11 美元，受折舊和攤銷以及利息支出的影響。我們也估計 2024 年的網路事件對調整後的每股盈餘產生了 0.04 美元的影響。

In 2024, we delivered positive operating cash flow. We also maintained a similar level of (inaudible) debt while reducing supply chain financing by $44 million. Leverage at year end was also impacted by the cybersecurity incident.

2024年，我們實現了正經營現金流。我們也維持了類似（聽不清楚）的債務水平，同時減少了 4,400 萬美元的供應鏈融資。年末槓桿率也受到網路安全事件的影響。

As we transform the business ahead of accelerating profitable growth in both the US and the wider adoption of our capitalized expansion internationally, we expect to deliver the following results in 2025.

隨著我們在美國加速獲利成長以及在國際上更廣泛地採用資本化擴張之前進行業務轉型，我們預計將在 2025 年取得以下成果。

Net revenue of $1.55 billion to $1.65 billion. Organic revenue growth of 5% to 7%. Adjusted EBITDA of $180 million to $200 million and adjusted earnings per share between $0.04 and $0.08.

淨收入為15.5億美元至16.5億美元。有機收入成長5%至7%。調整後的 EBITDA 為 1.8 億美元至 2 億美元，調整後的每股盈餘在 0.04 美元至 0.08 美元之間。

Providing some further insights into our financials in 2025, we anticipate that margins compressed in the first half due to lingering impacts of the cybersecurity incident on laborers and material management of Q1 specifically. And long-term business investments with revenue growth and the hub and spoke efficiencies expected to deliver operating leverage in the second half.

在進一步了解我們 2025 年的財務狀況後，我們預計，由於網路安全事件對第一季勞動力和材料管理的持續影響，上半年利潤率將會壓縮。長期業務投資的收入成長以及樞紐輻射效率預計將在下半年帶來營運槓桿。

SG&A expenses remain flat as a percent of revenue as the restructuring announced last year is offset by inflation and bonus accruals. Capital expenditures to track between 6% and 7% of net revenue. And interest expenses expected to be between $65 million to $75 million due to higher interest rates, with $500 million of our long-term debt hedged. This all reflects a $3 million to $5 million dollar headwind to adjusted EBITDA from foreign exchange rates.

由於去年宣布的重組被通貨膨脹和獎金應計所抵消，銷售、一般及行政費用佔收入的百分比保持不變。資本支出佔淨收入的6%至7%。由於利率上升，利息支出預計將在 6,500 萬美元至 7,500 萬美元之間，其中 5 億美元的長期債務已被對沖。這一切都反映出外匯匯率為調整後的 EBITDA 帶來了 300 萬至 500 萬美元的不利影響。

With regards to the first quarter of 2025, we've seen consumer softness. We're also seeing an impact from weather in the Southeast and fires in California. Taking these into account alongside the divestiture of Insomnia Cookies, startup costs from our US expansion, and the lingering cybersecurity impact in Q1, we expect the first quarter net revenue will be between $370 million and $390 million with $25 million to $30 million in adjusted EBITDA .

就 2025 年第一季而言，我們看到了消費者疲軟的現象。我們還看到了東南部天氣和加州火災的影響。考慮到這些因素以及 Insomnia Cookies 的剝離、美國業務擴張的啟動成本以及第一季持續存在的網路安全影響，我們預計第一季淨收入將在 3.7 億美元至 3.9 億美元之間，調整後的 EBITDA 將在 2500 萬至 3000 萬美元之間。

I remain confident we are taking the right actions in 2025 to set the business up for long-term profitable growth and improve returns on capital.

我仍然相信，我們將在 2025 年採取正確的行動，為業務的長期獲利成長和提高資本回報率奠定基礎。

Thanks Jeremiah. In summary, our largest growth opportunities are profitable US deliver fresh daily expansion and the wider adoption of our capital line international franchise model.

謝謝耶利米。總而言之，我們最大的成長機會是美國獲利能力的每日新鮮擴張以及更廣泛地採用我們的資本線國際特許經營模式。

In 2025, our transformation to a bigger and better Krispy Kreme continues with the clear business priorities we share today. Namely spotlighting our core offerings, focusing on growing with national distribution partners. Our expectation that we will soon award contracts to outsource US logistics. The evaluation of re-franchising certain international markets, and strengthening our performance-based culture. I look forward to our profitable growth in the years ahead.

2025 年，我們將繼續按照今天所共同確定的明確業務重點，轉型為更大、更好的 Krispy Kreme。即突顯我們的核心產品，注重與國家分銷合作夥伴共同成長。我們期望很快將授予美國物流外包合約。對重新特許經營某些國際市場的評估，以及加強我們基於績效的文化。我期待未來幾年我們的獲利能夠成長。

Operator, let's now open it up to Q&A, please.

接線員，現在讓我們開始問答環節。

We will now begin the question and answer session. (Operator Instructions)

我們現在開始問答環節。（操作員指示）

Dan Guglielmo, Capital One Securities.

丹古列爾莫，第一資本證券公司。

Hi everyone. Thanks for taking my questions. On the OpEx line specifically, those expenses are in line with prior year without Insomnia Cookies, and understand that there's $3 million from the cybersecurity incident. But thinking for 2025, where are you expecting kind of OpEx expenses to go? Should we be modeling kind of flat to what we've kind of seen this quarter, taking into account seasonality or just curious how you're thinking about that?

大家好。感謝您回答我的問題。具體來說，在營運支出方面，這些支出與去年同期持平，不包括 Insomnia Cookies，並且了解到網路安全事件帶來了 300 萬美元的支出。但考慮到 2025 年，您預計營運支出將會如何變化？考慮到季節性，我們是否應該對本季看到的情況進行持平建模，或者只是好奇您對此有何看法？

Yeah. Thanks, Dan. I can take that question. Obviously we're investing, let me just come back to -- from a guy perspective with respect to OpEx and in general, we are expecting to invest in things like operations leadership as we're building kind of performance culture and getting ready for a national rollout and footprint in the US. While also setting up the business for long-term growth by streaming our operations and focusing on making donuts by outsourcing logistics. Both of these things, we do expect to pressure OpEx in the front half of the year and then start to leverage that in the back half of the year.

是的。謝謝，丹。我可以回答這個問題。顯然我們正在進行投資，讓我回到——從個人角度來看，就營運支出而言，總的來說，我們希望在營運領導力等方面進行投資，因為我們正在建立一種績效文化，並為在美國進行全國推廣和佈局做好準備。同時，我們也透過流程化營運和外包物流專注於製作甜甜圈來為業務的長期成長做好準備。我們確實預計這兩件事會在上半年給營運支出帶來壓力，然後在下半年開始利用這項壓力。

Great, thank you. That's helpful. And then just as a follow up to that, with kind of the DFD expansion into McDonald's, Target, Walmart, the larger names, what's kind of the process for thinking about existing maybe DFD locations that are less economical? How do you guys think about maybe kind of shutting down some of those if it's not kind of hitting the margin levels that you're expecting, just want some color there and even if you guys are doing that?

太好了，謝謝。這很有幫助。然後作為後續行動，隨著 DFD 擴展到麥當勞、塔吉特、沃爾瑪等大品牌，考慮現有的可能不太經濟的 DFD 門市的過程是怎樣的？如果沒有達到你預期的利潤水平，你們會如何考慮關閉其中一些，只是想在那裡添加一些色彩，即使你們這樣做了？

Hi Dan, thanks for the question. Yeah, it's important to start by saying that the strategy to make our fresh doughnuts available in more places with the national partners you reference such as Walmart, Target, and Kroger, is working.

你好，丹，謝謝你的提問。是的，首先要說的是，我們與沃爾瑪、塔吉特和克羅格等全國合作夥伴合作，讓更多地方可以買到新鮮甜甜圈，這項策略正在發揮作用。

And so you know our expansion today is focused around those national partners. You know we're also bringing on indeed new ones such as Costco, which we mentioned earlier in the call.

所以你知道我們今天的擴張是圍繞著那些國家合作夥伴進行的。您知道，我們也確實引入了新的品牌，例如我們在電話會議中提到的 Costco。

With that in mind, we're making sure we continuously optimizing the network and that means any low-performing doors we can optimize as we go. And make sure that the system is strong for the long term. We've talked a lot about a bigger and better Krispy Kreme that means sustainable efficient growth in the long-term profitable growth. And hence we will take the opportunity for any smaller locations to optimize those as we grow.

考慮到這一點，我們確保不斷優化網絡，這意味著我們可以隨時優化任何性能不佳的門。並確保該系統長期強勁。我們已經多次討論過更大更好的 Krispy Kreme，這意味著長期獲利成長中的可持續高效成長。因此，隨著我們的發展，我們將抓住機會，對任何較小的地點進行最佳化。

Brian Harper, Morgan Stanley.

摩根士丹利的布萊恩哈珀。

Thanks. Good morning guys. For the top-line guide, you're talking about 5% to 7% organic growth that you're probably aware that you're kind of guiding I think below where the street is now for top line. So could you kind of just explain that? I don't know what the difference, international versus US is. Are you expecting there to be more door rationalization as you're sort of adding some of the McDonald's doors? What exactly kind of drives that top-line guide?

謝謝。大家早安。對於營收指引，您談論的是 5% 到 7% 的有機成長，您可能知道，您給予的指引低於目前的營收水準。那你能解釋一下嗎？我不知道國際和美國之間有什麼區別。當您增加一些麥當勞門市時，您是否希望門市更加合理化？究竟是什麼推動了這本頂線指南？

Hi Brian, I think I'll start by talking about the start of the year. It has been a choppy start of the year in our traditional retail locations in the US. There's freezing temperatures and wildfires. But we also see the value-conscious consumer under pressure, I mean that being said, the consumer remains highly engaged with the Krispy Kreme brand. We're an indulgent purchase for special occasions. I mentioned earlier that Valentine's was our biggest sales day ever. But we are finding that we need to put the spotlight on our beloved and affordable Original Glaze brand. So that is one of the key drivers, particularly as we start the year out.

嗨，布萊恩，我想我應該先談談今年年初的情況。今年年初，我們在美國的傳統零售店表現並不順利。氣溫驟降，野火肆虐。但我們也看到注重價值的消費者面臨壓力，我的意思是，話雖如此，消費者仍然高度關注 Krispy Kreme 品牌。我們是在特殊場合下盡情購買的。我之前提到過，情人節是我們有史以來銷售業績最好的一天。但我們發現，我們需要把焦點放在我們喜愛且價格實惠的 Original Glaze 品牌上。因此，這是關鍵驅動因素之一，尤其是在我們開始新的一年的時候。

Okay, understood. And just on, I guess on the CapEx and free cash side, I think that the the CapEx number you're saying was actually a little bit lower than you might have previously indicated. And correct me if I'm wrong. But I guess the broader question is sort of the last couple of years you've burned about $75 million of cash. Last year sort of Insomnia proceeds. Help kind of with that capital budget is. Do you think this year will look similar? Do you think that some of the re-franchising proceeds that you're -- considering would sort of go to that capital budget for this year?

好的，明白了。就資本支出和自由現金方面而言，我認為您所說的資本支出數字實際上比您之前指出的要低一些。如果我錯了，請糾正我。但我想更廣泛的問題是過去幾年你已經燒掉了大約 7500 萬美元的現金。去年失眠的情況還在持續。對資本預算有幫助。您認為今年的情況會類似嗎？您是否認為您正在考慮的部分重新特許經營收益會進入今年的資本預算？

Yeah, thanks for the question, Brian. I think, I'd start with 2024. We're actually pretty pleased with the fact that we deliver positive operating cash flow. Despite lowering the use of supply chain financing was which was a strategic decision that we've made to reduce our reliance on that. In addition to kind of cyber pressuring EBITDAs, we kind of exited the year.

是的，謝謝你的提問，布萊恩。我想，我會從 2024 年開始。事實上，我們對實現正的經營現金流感到非常高興。儘管降低了供應鏈融資的使用率，但這是我們為減少對供應鏈融資的依賴而做出的策略決策。除了網路壓力對 EBITDA 造成影響之外，我們也結束了這一年。

As you mentioned, we're committed to driving free cash flow when we look to transform the business to ensure we have the right capabilities, long term. In 2025, we're focused on driving improved conversion of EBITDA to free cash flow, being even more discerning with our CapEx, as you mentioned, and reducing kind of the spend in that area. And all whilst working toward making improvements in working capital.

正如您所提到的，當我們尋求轉變業務時，我們致力於推動自由現金流，以確保我們長期擁有正確的能力。2025 年，我們將專注於推動 EBITDA 向自由現金流的轉化，正如您所說，我們將更加謹慎地使用資本支出，並減少該領域的支出。同時致力於改善營運資金。

I would expect your kind of question the inorganic ways to drive operating cash flow through re-franchising to be incremental to this, but our objective is to drive positive free cash flow in 2025.

我希望您提出的透過重新特許經營來推動經營現金流的無機方式能夠逐步實現這一點，但我們的目標是在 2025 年推動正的自由現金流。

It's worth adding as well from an operational point of view that as we prepare for this nationwide footprint in the US. And we expand with the national partners, we're finding more and more ways to leverage our existing capacity. Whether it's because we've increased productivity at our existing hubs or we're learning how to get the doughnuts out to the points of access better and better.

從營運角度來看，值得補充的是，我們正在為在美國全國範圍內開展業務做準備。我們與國家合作夥伴一起擴大規模，尋找越來越多的方法來利用我們現有的能力。無論是因為我們提高了現有樞紐的生產力，還是因為我們正在學習如何越來越好地將甜甜圈送到接入點。

So there is an opportunity, we think, forward to invest a little less than we originally expected in the hubs, which means that you know we'll probably only build about five to seven new hubs this year in the US, which is a little less than we had previously expected. Reflecting the ability to leverage that existing capacity better.

因此，我們認為，未來有機會在樞紐上進行比最初預期少一點的投資，這意味著我們今年可能只會在美國建造大約五到七個新樞紐，這比我們之前預期的要少一點。反映更好地利用現有能力的能力。

Andrew Wolf, CL King.

安德魯沃爾夫、CL金。

Good morning. I want to ask you about your business with McDonald's just how '24 came out versus internal expectations, top and bottom line. And what is kind of reflected, however, specifically you can speak to it in 2025 with any updates based on results?

早安.我想問一下您與麥當勞的業務往來，《24》的業績與內部預期、頂線和底線相比如何。但是，具體來說，您可以談談 2025 年的情況，並根據結果進行任何更新嗎？

Andrew, yeah. We started the phased rollout of McDonald's just in October. We're already in actually 2,500 restaurants today. We're launching in New York just today.

安德魯，是的。我們從十月就開始分階段推出麥當勞。目前，我們的業務已涵蓋 2,500 家餐廳。我們今天就在紐約推出該產品。

We expect to be in about 6,000 by the end of the year and 12,000 by the end of 2026. So that rollout's on track. It's important to understand as well that the phased nationwide rollout of McDonald's is part of a broader strategy to make our fresh doughnuts more accessible, as mentioned earlier with Walmart, Target, Kroger, Costco, and others.

我們預計到今年年底該數字將達到約 6,000，到 2026 年底將達到 12,000。因此，該計劃的實施進展順利。同樣重要的是要理解，麥當勞在全國範圍內分階段推出甜甜圈計劃是更廣泛戰略的一部分，目的是讓我們的新鮮甜甜圈更容易買到，正如前面提到的沃爾瑪、塔吉特、克羅格、好市多等公司一樣。

So all that being said, the feedback from McDonald's is very positive. They tell us it's working well. And we're working hard with them to maximize the opportunity to make sure that the launch goes well. And we've seen during the launch phase that you know with local marketing. The team at McDonald's is able to raise awareness. Make sure that people know it's on the menu, driving very strong demand and no visible cannibalization of our other sales channels.

總而言之，麥當勞的回饋非常正面。他們告訴我們它運作良好。我們正在與他們努力合作，最大限度地利用機會，確保發表會順利進行。我們在發布階段就看到了在地行銷的成果。麥當勞團隊能夠提高人們的認識。確保人們知道它在菜單上，從而推動強勁的需求，並且不會明顯蠶食我們的其他銷售管道。

Now what we're doing now, it's early on in the rollout. We're making sure that we're working with them to maximize the opportunity during the whole roll out phase. Even when that local marketing comes off, when that awareness drops, when it's not as visible on the menu. When naturally demand softens. We're making sure that we work with them to get all the way to the national roll out phase at the end of 2026 when we'd expect they would start putting on national marketing.

我們現在所做的還處於早期階段。我們確保與他們合作，以在整個推出階段最大限度地利用機會。即使本地行銷失敗了，知名度下降了，菜單上也不再那麼顯眼了。當需求自然減弱時。我們確保與他們合作，在 2026 年底進入全國推廣階段，我們預計屆時他們將開始進行全國行銷。

Okay, so that's sort of like the J-curve where, initial demands above sort of the steady state? Which I think is typical, right? And is that been in line with expectations?

好的，這有點像 J 曲線，初始需求高於穩定狀態？我認為這很典型，對吧？這符合預期嗎？

Well, the initial demand when there's prominence on the menu board is actually coming in in those first few weeks above.

嗯，當菜單板上的顯示很顯眼時，最初的需求實際上是在最初的幾週內產生的。

Then when it comes that prominence comes off the menu board, there's no graphics. There's no other marketing. The doughnuts aren't actually visible to the customer. It's not like they're on the counter or anything. They're behind the back there. So the demand has dipped. Actually a little lower than we expected.

然後，當選單板上的突出部分消失時，就沒有圖形了。沒有其他行銷。顧客其實看不到甜甜圈。它們並不像在櫃檯上或其他地方。他們就在那裡的後面。因此需求下降了。實際上比我們預期的要低一點。

So right now we're focusing with them on how to make sure awareness is maintained during this local roll out phase whilst we wait to be nationally distributed. As I said, the feedback from them is very positive. And so the partnership continues to progress very well. And it continues to unlock for us expansion opportunities across the country.

因此，目前我們正與他們一起關注如何確保在等待全國發行的同時，在本地推廣階段保持知名度。正如我所說，他們的反饋非常積極。因此，雙方的合作關係持續進展順利。這也為我們在全國各地不斷開拓擴張機會。

I mentioned Costco. It's a really big opportunity for us. It wouldn't have been possible without starting the McDonald's rollout target, which we just started in 2024 following the announcement of McDonald's, continues to be a big expansion driver in 2025. So it's part of an overall program to get our awesome fresh doughnuts out to more people.

我提到了 Costco。這對我們來說確實是一個很大的機會。如果不啟動麥當勞的推廣目標，這一切都不可能實現。我們在 2024 年剛剛啟動了這一目標，麥當勞宣布這一目標後，將繼續成為 2025 年擴張的一大動力。所以，這是我們整體計劃的一部分，目的是讓更多的人品嚐到我們美味的新鮮甜甜圈。

Rahul Krotthapalli, JPMorgan.

摩根大通的 Rahul Krotthapalli。

Good morning guys. On the DFD door, weekly sales being down 5% lower year on year. You did cite customer make change as expected. I'm just curious to get more color on what drove this. Is the McDonald's doors realization is it lower than you expected? Or anything else you can share there? And I have a follow up.

大家早安。DFD 門市的每週銷售額比去年同期下降了 5%。您確實引用了客戶按預期做出的變更。我只是好奇想知道更多導致這現象的原因。麥當勞的門市實現率是否低於您的預期？或者您還可以分享什麼嗎？我還有一個後續行動。

No, I think, Rahul. And as you kind of mentioned APD in the US we're primarily driven by customer mix. As we continue to add customers in the US, some of our bigger footprint customers like Walmart, which make up a lower percentage of our total DFD footprint now compared to the same quarter last year. We'll pull down APED naturally just given their higher kind of APDs. That's the primary driver.

不，我認為，拉胡爾。正如您所提到的，在美國，APD 主要受客戶組合驅動。隨著我們在美國繼續增加客戶，我們的一些較大的客戶，如沃爾瑪，與去年同期相比，在我們 DFD 總足跡中所佔的比例較低。鑑於他們的 APD 較高，我們自然會降低 APED。這是主要的驅動因素。

And did you guys quantify the impact the cybersecurity incident had on the '25 EBITDA guidance?

你們是否量化了網路安全事件對 25 年 EBITDA 指引的影響？

We did not quantify the impact of cyber on the 2025 guidance. What I can tell you is operationally things like labor management and materials management were still an issue as we started the year. And so we do expect that and have called that out in our Q1 guide that we provided this morning.

我們沒有量化網路對 2025 年指導的影響。我可以告訴你的是，從營運角度來看，今年年初時勞動力管理和材料管理等問題仍然存在。我們確實預料到了這一點，並在今天上午提供的第一季指南中提到了這一點。

It is important to understand that as of today, thanks to the tremendous hard work of the team, our business operations are fully operational.

重要的是要明白，截至今天，由於團隊的巨大努力，我們的業務運作已全面投入營運。

Bill Chappell, Truist Securities.

Truist Securities 的 Bill Chappell。

Thanks. Good morning. Yeah, I just, maybe a clarification from my earlier questions. If I look at your revenue 2024 it was that $1.7 billion or if I take your revenue from last year and I do plus 5% to 7%. It gets me to $1.7 billion and you're guiding $1.5 billion to $1.6 billion. So can you just break out how much of that offset is from Insomnia and how much of it is from, I assume currency?

謝謝。早安.是的，我只是想澄清一下我之前的問題。如果我看一下您 2024 年的收入，那就是 17 億美元，或者如果我以您去年的收入為基礎，再加上 5% 到 7%。它使我的收入達到 17 億美元，而你的指導收入為 15 億美元至 16 億美元。那麼，您能否算出其中有多少抵銷來自失眠症，又有多少是來自貨幣呢？

Yeah, thanks, Bill. It's a great question and is absolutely the right kind of pick up. US segment net revenue in particular was impacted obviously by the sale of Insomnia Cookies, which is roughly about $70 million in revenue a quarter on that front. Foreign exchange is having roughly a $40 million dollar impact on total net revenue for the year as well from an international business perspective.

是的，謝謝，比爾。這是一個很好的問題，而且絕對是正確的選擇。美國分部的淨收入明顯受到 Insomnia Cookies 銷售的影響，該部門每季的收入約為 7,000 萬美元。從國際業務角度來看，外匯對全年總淨收入的影響約為 4,000 萬美元。

Got it. So that's those two just get me back to the to the your 5% to 7% organic growth?

知道了。那麼這兩個數字是否讓我回到 5% 到 7% 的有機成長？

Got it, yeah.

明白了，是的。

Okay, thanks. And then any way to do that on the bottom line in terms of just, again, you're doing -- you did $193 million in EBITDA, you're going to $180 million to $200 million this year. How much of that is -- how much of the Insomnia and how much of it would be would be FX?

好的，謝謝。然後，就底線而言，有什麼辦法可以做到這一點？再說一次，你的 EBITDA 為 1.93 億美元，今年將達到 1.8 億至 2 億美元。其中有多少是——有多少是失眠症，又有多少是 FX？

Yeah, on Insomnia, we generate roughly $8 million. We used to generate roughly $8 million a quarter EBITDA on Insomnia that will obviously come out in the front half. And we have called out a $3 million to $5 million impact as a result of foreign exchange on the EBITDA line as well.

是的，透過《失眠症》，我們賺了大約 800 萬美元。我們過去每季透過《失眠症》創造的 EBITDA 約為 800 萬美元，這顯然會在上半年實現。我們也指出，外匯對 EBITDA 的影響為 300 萬至 500 萬美元。

Brian Mullan, Piper Sandler.

布萊恩·穆蘭、派珀·桑德勒。

Hey, thanks. Just a question on the third-party logistics, in the prepared marks, I believe you said you could have half the US system by your end just related that. Can you just give an example of the puts and takes from a P&L perspective? What expenses would go away? What new expenses would you have? And can you talk about whether or not there would be a net benefit to EBITDA as you see it once it's all in place?

嘿，謝謝。這只是關於第三方物流的一個問題，在準備好的標記中，我相信您說過，在您的終端上您可以擁有一半的美國系統，就像與此相關一樣。您能否從損益角度給出看跌期權和獲利選擇權的例子？哪些開支會消失？您會有哪些新的開銷？您能否談談，一旦一切到位，您是否認為 EBITDA 會產生淨收益？

Yeah, thanks, Brian. And we've begun to scale obviously to support DFD expansion in the US, including McDonald's with our existing in-house models to start. In February, we're moved to the contract phase and remain engaged with multiple carriers to finalize contracts.

是的，謝謝，布萊恩。我們顯然已經開始擴大規模，以支持 DFD 在美國的擴張，其中包括採用我們現有的內部模式的麥當勞。二月份，我們進入了合約階段，並繼續與多家承運商合作以敲定合約。

While we go through this phase and into the roll out, we do expect some transition costs and moving to an outsource model. So a bit of kind of EBITDA pressure. But we are targeting EBITDA neutral. However, we're still in the negotiation phase. But expected costs are contemplated in our guide.

當我們經歷這個階段並進入推廣階段時，我們確實預期會產生一些過渡成本並轉向外包模式。因此，EBITDA 有點壓力。但我們的目標是 EBITDA 中性。然而，我們仍處於談判階段。但我們的指南中已經考慮了預期成本。

And the goal of getting to more than half the system, it's a big initiative. It's exciting for the teams in terms of giving us predictability and costs. We think that we'll get excellent service levels just generally be a more streamlined set of operations. But all that's taken into account in the guide today. So you know the puts and takes have been thought through.

要達到涵蓋半數以上系統的目標，這是一項重大舉措。這對團隊來說是令人興奮的，因為它為我們提供了可預測性和成本。我們認為，只要採取更精簡的營運方式，我們就能獲得卓越的服務水準。但今天的指南已將所有這些都考慮在內。所以您知道我們已經考慮過所有利弊。

Okay, thanks. And then follow up the question on international, the process to refranchise certain markets. There's not that many company owned markets right now So could you just give a sense if you're are you amenable to looking at re-franchising all of them? Or are there some of them you'd like to continue owning for whatever your reasons are, just any color on that and how long you think the process might take would be great.

好的，謝謝。然後跟進有關國際的問題，重新特許經營某些市場的過程。目前公司自有的市場並不多，因此您能否介紹一下您是否願意考慮重新特許經營所有這些市場？或者，無論出於什麼原因，您是否希望繼續擁有其中的一些，只要對此進行任何評論，並考慮這個過程可能需要多長時間就可以了。

Sure, we've learned that the best way to grow overseas is with local-scaled master franchise partners. And we have strong and growing businesses and several international markets that we both own and our franchise.

當然，我們已經認識到，海外發展的最佳方式是與當地規模的特許經營合作夥伴合作。我們擁有強大且不斷成長的業務以及多個我們擁有和特許經營的國際市場。

But what we think is the best way going forward, the fastest way of taking advantage of the opportunity, the most capital efficient way is to evaluate re-franchising the international markets that we own. The UK, Ireland, Australia, New Zealand, Japan, Mexico, Canada. That's the group that we own. We're evaluating all of those as an opportunity to do that.

但我們認為，前進的最佳方式、利用機會的最快方式、資本效率最高的方法是評估重新特許經營我們擁有的國際市場。英國、愛爾蘭、澳洲、紐西蘭、日本、墨西哥、加拿大。這就是我們擁有的團體。我們正在評估所有這些都是實現這一目標的機會。

The most important thing is to find a really good partner with quality, proven operators, uphold our brand standards, deploy the operating model that we talked through the hub and spoke model. And then you know have a strong financial position. So we're still in the evaluation phase right now, Ryan.

最重要的是找到一個真正優秀的合作夥伴，擁有優質、成熟的運營商，堅持我們的品牌標準，部署我們透過中心輻射模型討論的運營模式。然後你就會知道擁有強大的財務狀況。所以我們現在仍處於評估階段，瑞安。

But you know we'll provide updates as we have them regarding any particular market. But we're intent on doing this to make sure that we can focus most of our time on expanding with national US partners in the US, strengthening that US footprint and preparation for the nationwide roll out of those partners and you know overall transforming Krispy Kreme into a bigger and better Krispy Kreme.

但您知道，我們會提供任何特定市場的最新消息。但我們決心這樣做，以確保我們能夠將大部分時間集中在與美國全國合作夥伴一起擴大業務，加強美國業務的影響力，並為在全國範圍內推廣這些合作夥伴做好準備，並將 Krispy Kreme 整體轉變為更大更好的 Krispy Kreme。

Jaafar Mestari, BNP Paribas.

法國巴黎銀行的 Jaafar Mestari。

Hi, good morning. The first question is on what you said about Q1. I just wanted to triple check I've heard correctly. I think you've indicated EBITDA of between $25 million and $30 million in Q1. You've also given some indication on Insomnia quarterly EBITDA So last year Q1 EBITDA with Insomnia was $58 million.

嗨，早安。第一個問題是關於您所說的問題1。我只是想再三確認我是否聽對了。我認為您指出第一季的 EBITDA 在 2500 萬美元至 3000 萬美元之間。您也對 Insomnia 季度 EBITDA 給出了一些指示，因此去年 Insomnia 第一季的 EBITDA 為 5800 萬美元。

So am I correct if I assume you're effectively bearing the blunt of the impact in that Q1? And your full-year guidance then implies there will be adjusted EBITDA growth year on year in Q2, Q3, Q4.

那麼，如果我假設您實際上承受了第一季的全部影響，那麼我的觀點是否正確？那麼您的全年指引意味著第二季、第三季和第四季的調整後 EBITDA 將年成長。

Hey Jafar, I can take that question. Yeah, I think about Q1 in particular and the quarter itself. There are really kind of four things driving year over year change. The first being the sale of majority stick Insomnia Cookies. Second, being the lingering impacts of the cybersecurity incident on labors and material management which I referenced.

嘿，賈法爾，我可以回答這個問題。是的，我特別考慮第一季和本季本身。實際上有四件事推動著年復一年的變化。首先是銷售大量失眠餅乾。第二，就是我提到的網路安全事件對勞動力和物料管理的持續影響。

Third, we are incurring startup costs as we invest in the US expansion. And the fourth being some of the consumer pressures to the adverse weather across countries. So we think that Q1 is going to be the most pressured on it. What I would say is we do expect sequential improvement as we go throughout the year to the access capacity we're tapping into with our points of access, growth, driving up and spoke efficiency. But it will be most pressures in Q1.

第三，我們在投資美國擴張時會產生啟動成本。第四是各國惡劣天氣給消費者的壓力。因此我們認為第一季將面臨最大的壓力。我想說的是，我們確實期望隨著我們全年利用接入點、成長、推動和輻條效率的接入能力不斷提高。但第一季的壓力最大。

Super. Thank you. And then on international re-franchising early days as you said. What's your very early view on the type of potential partners you could find? Do you expect to be discussing sales on a local level? Or do you think there could be regional players interested in taking on multiple countries, specifically a lot of US restaurant brands have listed franchisees?

極好的。謝謝。然後正如您所說，關於國際再特許經營的早期階段。您對可以找到的潛在合作夥伴類型有何初步看法？您是否希望在當地討論銷售問題？或者您認為可能有區域參與者有興趣進軍多個國家，特別是許多美國餐飲品牌都有特許經營商？

Do you think you could be considering conducting local IPOs for the [off-courses], for example. And retaining the brand and the franchise, or do you think these businesses are too small for public markets?

例如，您是否考慮在本地進行 [場外] IPO？並保留品牌和特許經營權，或者您認為這些企業規模太小，不適合公開市場？

The way we have built, we have more than 30 franchise partners around the world that work very well is when they have the master franchise for that market for that country. And can build out the full omnichannel model within the borders of that country.

我們建立的方式是，我們在全球擁有 30 多個特許經營合作夥伴，當他們擁有某個國家/地區該市場的總特許經營權時，他們的工作就會非常順利。並可在該國境內建立完整的全通路模式。

We've seen that in existing markets. Across South America, Middle East, and Asia and indeed new markets like France which we opened up recently partnering with Columbus Cafe. They're a national operator of great standing.

我們在現有市場中已經看到了這一點。遍布南美、中東和亞洲，甚至包括我們最近與 Columbus Cafe 合作開拓的法國等新市場。他們是一家享有盛譽的全國性營運商。

And similarly, in Korea we partner with Lotte, obviously a fantastic operator. Well known within the country. And very strong and well financed. And so we'll be looking at profiles like that people who either have been involved or have an understanding of bringing in expertise. Whilst of course having you know good financial backing to support. What is a fast growing brand? We wouldn't rule anything out. That's the point of an evaluation. But we're not expecting to be going out there IPOing the businesses. There's no immediate plans for that.

同樣，在韓國，我們與樂天合作，這顯然是一家出色的運營商。在國內享有盛名。而且實力雄厚、資金充足。因此，我們將關注那些參與過或了解如何引入專業知識的人的資料。當然，您也知道有良好的財務支持。什麼是快速成長品牌？我們不會排除任何可能性。這就是評估的重點。但我們並不打算讓這些企業上市。目前還沒有這方面的計畫。

We wouldn't rule anything out. That's the point of an evaluation. But we're not expecting to be going out there IPOing the businesses. There's no immediate plans for that.

我們不會排除任何可能性。這就是評估的重點。但我們並不打算讓這些企業上市。目前還沒有這方面的計畫。

It's more around finding the right partner to build sustainably. Because this is a growth model and we have people approaching us across the world all the time to partner with us since we were able to communicate the clarity of our growth trajectory and demonstrate profitable capital efficient growth to them.

這更多的是為了找到合適的合作夥伴來實現永續發展。因為這是一種成長模式，而且我們一直有來自世界各地的人與我們聯繫，希望與我們合作，因為我們能夠向他們清晰地傳達我們成長軌跡，並展示有利可圖的資本高效成長。

Jon Tower, Citi.

花旗銀行的喬恩‧陶爾 (Jon Tower)。

Yeah, good morning. Thanks for taking the questions. Just real quick on clarification. I'm assuming this is the case. But just want to make sure there there's no re-franchising contemplated in your guidance today, correct?

是的，早安。感謝您回答這些問題。只是快速澄清一下。我假設情況確實如此。但只是想確保你今天的指導中沒有考慮重新特許經營，對嗎？

That is correct, Jon, yeah.

是的，喬恩，沒錯。

Okay, great. Maybe if you could speak to, it sounds like in 2025. Both in the US and internationally, there's a pivot in terms of marketing the actual product more towards the OG and away from -- maybe not even away from. But it sounds like you're putting more of a spotlight in the OG doughnut. I'm just curious to know why -- like what exactly are you seeing that suggests that's the proper tack to take?

好的，太好了。如果你能說一下的話，聽起來就像是 2025 年。無論是在美國還是在國際上，實際產品的營銷都更轉向 OG，甚至可能沒有遠離。但聽起來你更關注的是 OG 甜甜圈。我只是好奇想知道為什麼——你到底看到了什麼，這表明這是正確的策略？

You know, the Original Glazed doughnut, Jon, it's our most differentiated product. There's nothing quite like the experience of having a fresh Original Glazed doughnut and even more so if you have one hot off the line.

你知道，原味糖霜甜甜圈，喬恩，這是我們最具差異化的產品。沒有什麼能比得上吃一個新鮮的原味糖霜甜甜圈的體驗，如果你吃一個剛出爐的熱甜甜圈，那感覺就更棒了。

Indeed we see no matter what channel people are purchasing our doughnuts in if they've had a hot original glazed doughnut. Their memory structure such that they think of the time they had that. And so it really differentiates us against the competition. It's also you know not only is it beloved. But it's our most affordable product. And we are conscious of the value conscious consumer.

事實上，我們看到，無論人們透過什麼管道購買我們的甜甜圈，他們都會吃到熱騰騰的原味糖霜甜甜圈。他們的記憶結構使得他們能夠回憶起他們曾經擁有過的時光。因此，這確實使我們在競爭中脫穎而出。您也知道它不僅是受人喜愛的。但這是我們最實惠的產品。我們意識到消費者的價值意識。

We see particularly for large families and gatherings looking to buy more than a dozen. We want to bring value and the originals can do that. And finally, I mean, very practically it's our easiest doughnut that we make. It's the core of what we do, more than half of our sales, So it's the highest margin as well.

我們特別看到大家庭和聚會想要購買十幾個以上。我們希望帶來價值，原創作品可以做到這一點。最後，我的意思是，實際上這是我們製作的最簡單的甜甜圈。這是我們工作的核心，占我們銷售額的一半以上，因此也是利潤最高的。

So not only is it iconic for the consumer, differentiating versus the competition. But the best way for us to sustainably properly grow the business in all our channels.

因此，它不僅對消費者俱有標誌性，而且與競爭對手有區別。但對我們來說，最好的方式是透過所有管道持續適當地發展業務。

Got it. And maybe just one last follow up on you'd mentioned that you're seeing some softness from a consumer demand standpoint. Can you maybe break that down across the channels? Are you seeing any one channel stand out in terms of where that weakness is coming from?

知道了。也許最後再問一下，您提到從消費者需求的角度來看，您看到了一些疲軟。您能否透過各個管道來解釋一下這個問題？您是否發現有哪個管道是造成這種弱點的突出原因？

Well, we've consistently seen over the last couple of years as we've deployed the strategy of bringing the doughnuts to more people. The way we're bringing the doughnuts to them. Making it much more convenient for them in their lives, we've seen strong sustained growth and of course we've been adding more and more points of access around the world. And so I mentioned on the call today that we grow more than 20%. And the delivered fresh daily channel of the off-premise sales that I'm referencing in 2024 and achieved a milestone of $250 million of revenue in the year.

嗯，過去幾年來，我們一直在實施讓更多人品嚐甜甜圈的策略。我們送甜甜圈給他們的方式。為了讓他們的生活更加便捷，我們看到了強勁的持續成長，當然，我們也在世界各地增加了越來越多的接入點。因此我在今天的電話會議上提到我們的成長率超過了 20%。我所提到的 2024 年場外銷售的每日新鮮配送通路在當年實現了 2.5 億美元的收入里程碑。

So you know that's thanks to that expansion of deliver fresh daily. We're also seeing the digital channel has been growing consistently. Obviously there was some disruption in December from the cyber incident, but apart from that has been. A similar level over the last few quarters, more than 20%. What I was referencing today was where we're asking people to come to our traditional doughnut shops, come into the lobby, have the experience of the doughnut case. It's an amazing experience and it's often triggered by that hot light original glaze your earlier question. Hence the importance of focusing on that in our strategy.

所以您知道這要歸功於每日新鮮配送的擴展。我們也看到數位管道一直在持續成長。顯然，12 月的網路事件造成了一些混亂，但除此之外一切順利。與過去幾季的水平相似，超過 20%。我今天提到的是，我們邀請人們來到我們的傳統甜甜圈店，走進大廳，體驗甜甜圈櫃的樂趣。這是一種令人驚奇的體驗，它通常是由你之前的問題中提到的熱光原釉所引發的。因此，在我們的策略中關注這一點非常重要。

(Operator Instructions) David Palmer, Evercore ISI.

（操作員指示）David Palmer，Evercore ISI。

Thanks. Good morning, guys. I wanted to ask you about that cyber impact. You estimated $10 million as a headwind to the fourth quarter. I would imagine estimating that would be even pretty difficult. I mean, what is can you make us understand like how you calculated that, like what does that represent? How do you, where did this shortfall come from, and then what was that drag. You, now that it's sort of behind you as you stand today. What do you think the drag has been for one cue?

謝謝。大家早安。我想問您有關網路影響的問題。您估計第四季的阻力為 1000 萬美元。我想估計這一點會非常困難。我的意思是，你能讓我們明白你是如何計算的，它代表什麼嗎？您如何看待這種短缺？這種短缺從何而來？其拖累因素又是什麼？你，現在既然你今天站在這裡，那件事就都過去了。您認為對於一個球桿來說阻力有多大？

Thanks David. I, I'll take that question. And the way we think about it, we talked a little bit about the impact to, online sales and ordering. Which would roughly make up half of the impact that we saw in the fourth quarter. With respect to how you kind of quantify that, we actually didn't sell anything online for a number of weeks.

謝謝大衛。我，我來回答這個問題。我們對此進行了思考，並討論了其對線上銷售和訂購的影響。這大約相當於我們在第四季度看到的影響的一半。至於你如何量化這一點，我們實際上已經有好幾個星期沒有在網路上銷售任何東西了。

And therefore we're -- that's a fairly easy one to kind of quantify on the kind of labor and materials efficiency piece, we look historically at where kind of our adherence to schedule and labor hours are to estimate where and how inefficient we were during that time frame as well. Which gives us pretty high kind of confidence and comfort that you know that those were the impacts that we saw for the for the fourth quarter.

因此，我們 - 這是一個相當容易量化的勞動力和材料效率部分，我們從歷史上看，我們對計劃和勞動時間的遵守情況，以估計我們在那個時間範圍內的效率低下程度。這給了我們相當高的信心和安慰，你知道這些是我們在第四季看到的影響。

We're not disclosing the impact on the first quarter specifically. But what I can tell you is we were back up and running from an e-com perspective, so less of an impact from lost sales. But continued to see the impact on efficiency until we had the backup shop systems up and running for the first few weeks in January.

我們不會具體揭露對第一季的影響。但我可以告訴你的是，從電子商務的角度來看，我們已經恢復運營，因此銷售損失的影響較小。但直到 1 月的頭幾週，我們的備用商店系統才得以啟動並運行，其對效率的影響才得以持續顯現。

And just to follow up on outsourcing with the logistics. What is going to be the, when is that fully going to be rolled out and what's the impact the EBITDA and cash flow? I would assume that there'd be some CapEx implications as well, maybe on an annualized basis as you roll that out? Thanks.

並僅跟進物流外包。這個計劃何時全面實施，對 EBITDA 和現金流有何影響？我認為也會有一些資本支出影響，也許是按年度計算的？謝謝。

Yeah, so I think as Josh has mentioned, we expect to transition roughly half the fleet by the end of the year. With respect to the cost associated with that as I mentioned that we will incur some startup costs as we go through the transition.

是的，我認為正如 Josh 所提到的，我們預計今年年底將轉移大約一半的船隊。關於與此相關的成本，正如我所提到的，我們在轉型過程中將產生一些啟動成本。

But do expect in our are working toward a goal of e it neutral for the year. As you can imagine, there may be some actually cash benefit as a result of outsourcing as we kind of negotiate payment terms with vendors and those types of things versus paying our folks on a regular basis. So we're still working through all that as we go through the contract phase where we are targeting effectively neutral is what we're saying.

但我們正在努力實現今年的中立目標。你可以想像，外包實際上可能會帶來一些現金收益，因為我們可以與供應商協商付款條款等，而不是定期向員工付款。因此，在合約階段，我們仍在努力解決所有問題，我們的目標是有效中立。

And that will conclude our question and answer session. I'll turn the call back over to Josh Charlesworth for any closing comments.

我們的問答環節到此結束。我將把電話轉回給 Josh Charlesworth，請他發表任何結束語。

Yeah, I'll just say thank you for your interest in Krispy Kreme today. Thank you to our Krispy Kremers for all the hard work you do every day. Now our path forward is clear as we transform into a bigger and better Krispy Kreme. One that delivers profitable capital efficient growth in the long term. Thank you.

是的，我只想感謝您今天對 Krispy Kreme 的關注。感謝我們的 Krispy Kremers 每天的辛勤工作。現在，隨著我們轉型成為更大更好的 Krispy Kreme，我們前進的道路已經清晰。能夠長期實現獲利的資本高效成長。謝謝。

This concludes our call today. Thank you all for joining. You may now disconnect.

今天的通話到此結束。感謝大家的加入。您現在可以斷開連線。