Draftkings Inc (DKNG) 2025 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Good day, and thank you for standing by. Welcome to the DraftKings fourth-quarter 2025 earnings conference call. (Operator Instructor) Please be advised that today's conference is being recorded.

您好，感謝您的耐心等待。歡迎參加 DraftKings 2025 年第四季財報電話會議。（操作員教員）請注意，今天的會議正在錄音。

I would now like to hand the conference over to your speaker today, Mike DeLalio, Senior Director of Investor Relations. Please go ahead.

現在我謹將會議交給今天的主講人，投資者關係高級總監麥克德拉利奧。請繼續。

Good morning, everyone, and thank you for joining us today. Certain statements we make during this call may constitute forward-looking statements that are subject to risks, uncertainties and other factors as discussed further in our SEC filings that could cause our actual results to differ materially from our historical results or from our forecast. We assume no responsibility to update forward-looking statements other than as required by law.

各位早安，感謝大家今天收看我們的節目。我們在本次電話會議中所做的某些陳述可能構成前瞻性陳述，這些陳述受到風險、不確定性和其他因素的影響，這些因素將在我們提交給美國證券交易委員會的文件中進一步討論，這些因素可能導致我們的實際業績與我們的歷史業績或預測存在重大差異。除法律要求外，我們不承擔更新前瞻性陳述的責任。

During this call, management will also discuss certain non-GAAP financial measures that we believe may be useful in evaluating DraftKings' operating performance. These measures should not be considered in isolation or as a substitute for DraftKings financial results prepared in accordance with GAAP. Reconciliations of these non-GAAP measures to the most directly comparable GAAP measures are available in our earnings release, letter to shareholders and earnings presentation, which can be found on our website and in our annual report on Form 10-K filed with the SEC.

在本次電話會議中，管理層還將討論我們認為可能有助於評估 DraftKings 營運績效的某些非 GAAP 財務指標。這些措施不應被孤立地看待，也不應被視為 DraftKings 根據 GAAP 編制的財務業績的替代品。這些非GAAP指標與最直接可比較的GAAP指標的調節表可在我們的盈利公告、致股東信和盈利演示文稿中找到，這些文件可在我們的網站上找到，也可在我們向美國證券交易委員會提交的10-K表格年度報告中找到。

Hosting the call today, we have Jason Robins, Co-Founder and Chief Executive Officer of DraftKings, who will share some opening remarks and an update on our business. Following Jason's remarks, our Chief Financial Officer, Alan Ellingson, will provide a brief review of our financials. We will then open the line to questions.

今天主持電話會議的是 DraftKings 的聯合創始人兼首席執行官 Jason Robins，他將發表一些開場白並介紹我們公司的最新情況。在傑森發言之後，我們的財務長艾倫·埃林森將簡要回顧我們的財務狀況。接下來我們將開放提問環節。

I will now turn the call over to Jason Robins.

現在我將把電話交給傑森羅賓斯。

Thank you, Mike. We closed 2025 on a high note, setting new quarterly records for revenue and adjusted EBITDA. Fourth quarter revenue grew 43% year-over-year to nearly $2 billion. Adjusted EBITDA was $343 million, 4x the prior year period. Adjusted EBITDA margin expanded by more than 1,000 basis points year-over-year to 17%.

謝謝你，麥克。2025 年我們以優異的成績收官，創下了季度營收和調整後 EBITDA 的新紀錄。第四季營收年增 43%，達到近 20 億美元。調整後 EBITDA 為 3.43 億美元，是去年同期的 4 倍。經調整的 EBITDA 利潤率年增超過 1000 個基點，達到 17%。

We repurchased another 8 million shares during the quarter, and we expect to remain active with repurchases as our adjusted EBITDA continues to grow. . We are in a strong position. Our sustainable advantages in product, technology, trust and marketing continue to drive higher LTV and efficient customer acquisition. AI and machine learning amplify each one by making our products better, our platform faster, consumer trust stronger and marketing more efficient.

本季我們又回購了 800 萬股股票，隨著調整後 EBITDA 的持續成長，我們預計將繼續積極回購股票。。我們處於有利地位。我們在產品、技術、信任和行銷方面的可持續優勢將繼續推動更高的客戶終身價值和更有效率的客戶獲取。人工智慧和機器學習透過改進我們的產品、加快我們的平台速度、增強消費者信任和提高行銷效率來增強每項功能。

The result is predictable in improving cohort economics, reinforcing our conviction that we have built an efficient and powerful long-term business model. We are excited to share more details at our Virtual Investor Day on March 2.

可以預見，這將改善群體經濟效益，從而強化我們對已建立高效、強大的長期商業模式的信念。我們很高興能在3月2日的線上投資者日上分享更多細節。

Now we take our next step. Predictions is rapidly developing into a massive incremental opportunity, and we are moving with urgency. We expect to emerge as the leader in this nascent category. We plan to deploy growth capital to build the best customer experience and predictions and acquire millions of customers. This year, we anticipate significant step function improvements to our predictions offering, including the integration of Rail bird and launch for our Market Making division.

現在我們進入下一步。預測正在迅速發展成為一個巨大的增量機會，我們正在緊急推進。我們期望成為這一新興領域的領導者。我們計劃投入成長資金，打造最佳客戶體驗和預測，並獲取數百萬客戶。今年，我們預計我們的預測產品將有顯著的階躍式改進，包括整合 Railbird 並推出我們的做市部門。

We are targeting hundreds of millions in annual revenue for DraftKings predictions in the years ahead. We believe there is much more upside over the long term. This should translate to meaningful incremental adjusted EBITDA and predictions we have the playbook to execute and win.

未來幾年，我們的目標是DraftKings預測業務的年收入達到數億美元。我們認為從長遠來看，上漲空間更大。這應該會轉化為有意義的增量調整後 EBITDA，而且我們有計劃執行並取得成功。

Before I go deeper on predictions, I want to highlight the strength of our core business. In fiscal year 2025, we grew revenue 27% year-over-year to above $6 billion. Adjusted EBITDA more than tripled to over $600 million and exceeded the high end of the guidance range we provided in November. We reported positive net income for the first time and repurchased 16 million shares during the fiscal year.

在深入探討預測之前，我想先強調一下我們核心業務的優勢。2025 財年，我們的營收年增 27%，超過 60 億美元。調整後 EBITDA 成長超過三倍，達到 6 億美元以上，超過了我們在 11 月給出的預期範圍的上限。本財年我們首次實現了正淨利潤，並回購了 1,600 萬股股票。

The business is scaling in a durable way. Since fiscal year 2022, we've grown customers by nearly 6 million, revenue by roughly $4 billion and adjusted EBITDA by more than $1 billion. Every year has been better than the last because our LTV flywheel continues to improve, powered by our sustainable advantages. We expect our revenue and adjusted EBITDA to grow for many years to come.

企業正以永續的方式發展壯大。自 2022 財年以來，我們的客戶數量增加了近 600 萬，收入增加了約 40 億美元，調整後的 EBITDA 增加了超過 10 億美元。每年都比前一年更好，因為我們的 LTV 飛輪不斷改進，這得益於我們的永續發展優勢。我們預計未來多年公司營收和調整後 EBITDA 將持續成長。

I also want to directly address the most common question we are getting, could a growing predictions category overlap with Sportsbook over time? To date, we are not seeing a discernible impact from predictions on our revenue. In our newest Sportsbook State, Missouri, adoption of our offering was higher than in any other state launch in our history through the first two months, and activity per customer has been strong. In the fourth quarter, our overall Sportsbook handle accelerated to 13% year-over-year.

我還想直接回答我們收到的最常見問題：預測類別不斷增長是否會隨著時間的推移與體育博彩重疊？到目前為止，我們還沒有看到預測對我們的收入有明顯影響。在我們最新的運動博彩市場——密蘇裡州，前兩個月的市場接受度高於我們歷史上任何其他州的推出率，而且每位客戶的活躍度也很高。第四季度，我們的體育博彩總投注額年增 13%。

In January, our Sportsbook handle increased 4% year-over-year, even after two consecutive months of Sportsbook friendly outcomes and as our parlay handle mix continue to surge. Internal and third-party data suggest predictions impacted our January handle only very slightly and primarily impacted low-margin customers. Consequently, the impact to our revenue has been de minimis.

1 月份，儘管體育博彩投注額連續兩個月對體育博彩有利，且我們的串關投注額組合持續飆升，但我們的體育博彩投注額仍同比增長了 4%。內部和第三方數據顯示，預測對我們 1 月的銷售額影響甚微，主要影響的是低利潤客戶。因此，對我們的收入影響微乎其微。

Now I'd like to focus on predictions. We have been building drafting for more than 14 years. When a new growth lane opens, we move fast and executed scale. Predictions is the most exciting new growth opportunity we have seen since (inaudible) was struck down in 2018. Early signals are strong.

現在我想重點談談預測。我們從事建築繪圖工作已有14年以上。當新的成長機會出現時，我們會迅速採取行動並擴大規模。自 2018 年（聽不清楚）被擊倒以來，預測是我們見過的最令人興奮的新成長機會。早期訊號很強。

On Super Bowl Sunday, DraftKings predictions had the second most downloads in its category and delivered 3x its prior record for daily trading volume.

在超級盃週日，DraftKings 的預測在其類別中下載量排名第二，並且每日交易量達到了先前記錄的 3 倍。

Customer retention is also strong so far, even with a product that is early and positioned to improve rapidly as we add content. In predictions, speed and execution, combined with a strong brand, smooth interface and real sports modeling, trading and technology expertise will determine long-term leadership. This is where DraftKings thrives. The opportunity here could be large. Based on analyst estimates, predictions could represent a $10 billion annual gross revenue opportunity in the years ahead.

到目前為止，客戶留存率也很高，即使我們的產品還處於早期階段，隨著內容的增加，產品還有很大的改進空間。在預測方面，速度和執行力，再加上強大的品牌、流暢的介面和真實的體育建模、交易和技術專長，將決定長期的領導地位。這正是 DraftKings 的優勢所在。這裡蘊藏著巨大的機會。根據分析師的估計，未來幾年，這可能帶來每年 100 億美元的毛收入機會。

We expect to capture it across multiple business lines, including the customer-facing platform, our own exchange and market making. We expect the volume on DraftKings predictions to keep building with growth accelerating through 2026 and beyond. Our goal is simple. We intend to lead the predictions category. As such, we support the CFTC's engagement on events contracts and the advancement of a more fine and durable regulatory framework.

我們預計將在多個業務領域實現這一目標，包括面向客戶的平台、我們自己的交易所和做市業務。我們預計 DraftKings 預測的交易量將持續成長，並在 2026 年及以後加速成長。我們的目標很簡單。我們的目標是在預測領域中佔據領先地位。因此，我們支持美國商品期貨交易委員會參與賽事合約監管，並推動建立更完善、更持久的監管架構。

The CFTC Chair recently directed agency staff to establish clear standards for event contracts to provide certainty for market participants. We view this direction as constructive. (inaudible) should reward operators with strong compliance and responsible engagement infrastructure and support the expansion of sports-related predictions over time. We bring sports, trading and technology together at scale, backed by strong distribution. We originate prices and manage risk every day in our Sportsbook.

美國商品期貨交易委員會主席最近指示該機構工作人員制定明確的賽事合約標準，為市場參與者提供確定性。我們認為這個方向是建設性的。 （聽不清楚）應該獎勵那些擁有強大合規性和負責任的互動基礎設施的運營商，並支持體育相關預測的長期發展。我們大規模地將體育、交易和科技結合起來，並擁有強大的分銷管道。我們每天都在體育博彩中製定價格並管理風險。

We have hundreds of data scientists and machine learning engineers building sports models plus a dedicated trading desk that fine-tunes live pricing in real time. We combine that with the trusted brand, a large customer database we can activate efficiently and marketing relationships like ESPN and NBCUniversal that give us flexible high-intent inventory to deploy as returns dictate. We have run this playbook before. In Fantasy Sports book iGaming and lottery, we've built leadership positions by steadily bringing critical technology in-house.

我們擁有數百名資料科學家和機器學習工程師，致力於建立體育模型，此外還有一個專門的交易部門，負責即時微調即時價格。我們將這些優勢與值得信賴的品牌、龐大的客戶資料庫（我們可以有效地激活這些客戶）以及與 ESPN 和 NBCUniversal 等行銷機構的合作關係相結合，從而獲得靈活的高意向廣告資源，並可根據市場反饋進行部署。我們之前就用過這套方案。在夢幻體育博彩、網路遊戲和彩票領域，我們透過穩步將關鍵技術引入公司內部，建立了領先地位。

In Sportsbook, we successfully integrated acquisitions and continued investing deeply in our proprietary technology to deliver the number one rated product. Our Sportsbook product is far ahead of our peers in uptime, which is the percentage of a game during which odds are available. Predictions is the next chapter of this same strategy. We have already designed our product to improve rapidly.

在體育博彩領域，我們成功整合了收購項目，並持續大力投資我們的專有技術，以提供排名第一的產品。我們的體育博彩產品在正常運作時間方面遠遠領先於同行，正常運作時間是指比賽期間賠率可用的百分比。預測是這項策略的下一個篇章。我們的產品設計之初就考慮到了快速改進。

Our product is built to scale. DraftKings predictions already connects to multiple exchanges so we can stay nimble as trading options evolve and continuously expand content availability and liquidity. Our recent Crypto.com integration was an immediate upgrade and breadth and engagement, adding new trading options across categories such as player performance markets, golf, USC and politics. Next, we plan to integrate Railbird near the middle of this year to improve innovation velocity and strengthen customer economics by owning more of the stack.

我們的產品是為規模化生產而設計的。DraftKings 預測已連接到多個交易所，因此我們可以隨著交易選項的演變保持靈活，並不斷擴大內容可用性和流動性。我們最近與 Crypto.com 的整合立即提升了交易範圍和參與度，增加了球員表現市場、高爾夫、南加州大學和政治等類別的新交易選項。接下來，我們計劃在今年年中左右整合 Railbird，以提高創新速度，並透過擁有更多技術堆疊來增強客戶經濟效益。

We are also launching market making because liquidity is a core part of the customer experience and predictions, contract listings, fees, market structure and distribution matter. The type two-way markets with depth are what attracts participants. Exchanges see liquidity by incentivizing market makers and DraftKings can lead market making for sports contracts because we model sports probabilities exceptionally well, and we have the infrastructure to provide liquidity across a broad spectrum of contracts.

我們也推出了做市服務，因為流動性是客戶體驗的核心部分，而預測、合約清單、費用、市場結構和分銷都至關重要。具有深度的雙向市場類型才最能吸引參與者。交易所透過激勵做市商來獲得流動性，而 DraftKings 可以引領體育合約的做市，因為我們對體育機率的建模非常出色，而且我們擁有為各種合約提供流動性的基礎設施。

This creates two revenue engines for DraftKings in predictions. First, transaction fees as we own the customer relationship through DraftKings predictions and offer a platform to trade across sports and non-sports. Second, trading economics for market making and proprietary trading on our own exchange and where it makes sense on other exchanges. Over time, we also intend to introduce exclusive combination trading options that may become a major differentiator of the customer experience evolves.

這為 DraftKings 在預測方面創造了兩個收入來源。首先是交易費用，因為我們透過 DraftKings 預測擁有客戶關係，並提供一個跨體育和非體育領域的交易平台。其次，交易經濟學適用於在我們自己的交易所進行做市和自營交易，以及在其他交易所進行合適的交易。隨著時間的推移，我們還計劃推出獨家組合交易選項，這可能會成為客戶體驗演變過程中的重要差異化因素。

With that, I will turn it over to our Chief Financial Officer, Alan Ellingson, to discuss our results and guidance.

接下來，我將把發言權交給我們的財務長艾倫·埃林森，由他來討論我們的業績和未來展望。

Thank you, Jason. Before I cover our fiscal year 2026 guidance, I'd like to discuss our 2025 financial performance starting with the fourth quarter. Please note that all income statement measures discussed except for revenue, are on a non-GAAP adjusted EBITDA basis. Our fourth quarter revenue grew 43% year-over-year to nearly $2 billion, adjusted EBITDA was $343 million, 4x the prior year period. Adjusted EBITDA margins expanded by more than 1,000 basis points year-over-year to 17%.

謝謝你，傑森。在介紹我們 2026 財年的業績指引之前，我想先討論一下我們 2025 年的財務業績，從第四季開始。請注意，除收入外，所有討論的損益表指標均以非GAAP調整後的EBITDA為基礎。我們第四季的營收年增 43%，達到近 20 億美元，調整後的 EBITDA 為 3.43 億美元，是去年同期的 4 倍。經調整的 EBITDA 利潤率年增超過 1000 個基點，達到 17%。

We repurchased another 8 million shares during the quarter, and we expect to remain active with share repurchases as our adjusted EBITDA continues to grow. Results were strong across all our verticals in fiscal year 2025. Tennessee revenue increased as PIC has begun to scale. Year-over-year, Sportsbook revenue increased over 30%, while Sportsbook net revenue margin expanded by more than 100 basis points. iGaming revenue increased 20% as we expanded our offering and attracted a broader demographic.

本季我們又回購了 800 萬股股票，隨著調整後 EBITDA 的持續成長，我們預計將繼續積極回購股票。2025財年，我們所有業務部門的業績都表現強勁。隨著PIC規模的擴大，田納西州的營收也隨之增加。與去年同期相比，體育博彩收入成長超過30%，淨收入利潤率也提升了100多個基點。隨著我們拓展產品線並吸引更廣泛的用戶群體，線上遊戲收入成長了20%。

Lottery revenue benefited from a stronger jackpot environment as well as rolling out scratcher games and Keno in additional states. And we delivered all this while launching our fifth vertical predictions. Sportsbook had a standout fourth quarter. Revenue increased 64% year-over-year to $1.4 billion, handle growth accelerated for the second consecutive quarter to 13% year-over-year. Sportsbook net revenue margin increased 250 basis points to 8%.

彩票收入受益於更強勁的獎金環境，以及在更多州推出刮刮樂遊戲和基諾遊戲。而且，我們在發布第五個垂直領域預測報告的同時，也完成了所有這些工作。體育博彩公司在第四節表現出色。營收年增 64% 至 14 億美元，交易量連續第二季加速成長，較去年同期成長 13%。體育博彩淨收入利潤率成長250個基點至8%。

Parlay handle mix increased nearly 500 basis points. This continues the multiyear trend that is driving our structural net revenue margin higher. Ford outcomes were Sportsbook friendly in the fourth quarter, and our overall hold percentage was slightly above 12%. As many of you are aware, Variance is random in nature and in the short term, can either be a tailwind or a headwind for our business. For the 2025 to 2026 NFL season, our NFL hold percentage was 16%. I would also like to touch on the scale of our Sportsbook business for the fiscal year 2025.

Parlay 交易組合成長近 500 個基點。這延續了多年來推動我們結構性淨收入利潤率不斷提高的趨勢。福特汽車第四季的業績對體育博彩公司有利，我們的整體獲利百分比略高於 12%。正如你們許多人所知，波動本質上是隨機的，在短期內，它可能對我們的業務有利，也可能不利。2025 至 2026 年 NFL 賽季，我們的 NFL 持球率達到 16%。我還想談談我們2025財年體育博彩業務的規模。

Our Sportsbook handle increased 11% year-over-year to $54 billion. Our total potential payouts across all open wages or capital at risk, was $2.5 trillion due to multiplicative nature of parlays.

我們的體育博彩投注額年增 11%，達到 540 億美元。由於串通的乘法性質，我們所有未決工資或風險資本的潛在賠償總額為 2.5 兆美元。

We achieved this scale even though our Sportsbook is only available to about half the US population. As a result of our strong fourth quarter, we had an excellent year. We grew revenue 27% year-over-year to above $6 billion. Our adjusted EBITDA more than tripled to over $600 million and also exceeded the high end of the guidance range that we provided in November 2025.

儘管我們的體育博彩服務僅面向美國約一半的人口，但我們仍然取得了這樣的規模。由於第四季業績強勁，我們全年取得了優異的成績。我們營收年增 27%，超過 60 億美元。我們調整後的 EBITDA 成長了兩倍多，超過 6 億美元，也超過了我們在 2025 年 11 月提供的指導範圍的上限。

We repurchased 16 million shares during the fiscal year. We also reported positive GAAP net income for the first time. I am particularly proud of that last fact that we generated positive net income for the fiscal year 2025, as it demonstrates how efficient and powerful our business model is becoming.

本財年我們回購了1600萬股股票。我們也首次實現了正的GAAP淨利。我尤其為我們在 2025 財年實現正淨收入這一事實感到自豪，因為它表明我們的商業模式變得越來越高效和強大。

As Jason mentioned, we expect to share more about the strength of our business model and our sustainable advantages at our Virtual Investor Day on March 2. Now I'd like to touch on our fiscal year 2026 guidance. We are excited about both our results and our business trajectory. In fiscal year 2026, we expect DraftKings to achieve between $6.5 billion and $6.9 billion of revenue and between $700 million and $900 million of adjusted EBITDA. Our revenue and adjusted EBITDA guidance ranges reflect expected investments in DraftKings predictions, line of sight jurisdiction launches and disciplined planning as business conditions evolve. We assume state tax rates will remain consistent with where they are today.

正如傑森所提到的那樣，我們計劃在 3 月 2 日的虛擬投資者日上，與大家分享更多關於我們商業模式的優勢和永續發展優勢的資訊。現在我想談談我們2026財年的業績預期。我們對我們的業績和業務發展前景都感到非常興奮。我們預計 DraftKings 在 2026 財年的營收將達到 65 億美元至 69 億美元，調整後的 EBITDA 將達到 7 億美元至 9 億美元。我們的收入和調整後 EBITDA 預期範圍反映了對 DraftKings 預測、可視管轄區推出和隨著業務條件變化而進行的嚴謹規劃的預期投資。我們假設州稅率將與目前水準保持一致。

That concludes our remarks, and we will now open the line for questions.

我們的演講到此結束，現在我們將開放提問環節。

(Operator Instructor)

（操作員教員）

Dan Politzer, J.P. Morgan.

丹‧波利策，摩根大通。

I was hoping we could take things off talking about production markets. Jason, the tone of your letter and comments certainly reflect the pivot on how you're thinking about this with you. I think so far to say that this is the most exciting growth opportunity since PASPA. I guess the question is, why are you so much more aggressively leaning into prediction markets now? What have you seen in the past two months, either from a regulatory backdrop, broad social acceptance or recent rollout of DraftKings predicts that gives you the confidence that this investment makes sense.

我原本希望我們能暫時放下對生產市場的討論。傑森，你的信和評論的語氣確實反映出你對此事的看法發生了轉變。我認為到目前為止，可以說這是自PASPA以來最令人興奮的成長機會。我想問的是，為什麼你們現在如此積極地涉足預測市場？在過去兩個月裡，無論是監管環境、廣泛的社會接受度，還是 DraftKings 最近的推廣，您都看到了哪些跡象，讓您確信這項投資是合理的？

And perhaps most importantly, how are you thinking about the level of investment required for 2026, given some of your peers have talked about $200 million to $300 million there?

或許最重要的是，鑑於一些同業談到2026年需要2億至3億美元的投資，您認為2026年需要多少投資？

Well, first of all, we have been excited about predictions for why. I think you're right. We're more excited now. I wouldn't say it's a change of tone as much as an acceleration of our excitement. I think part of it is there's been a real lean in from the CFTC.

首先，我們對預測結果感到興奮，原因何在？我覺得你說得對。我們現在更興奮了。與其說是語氣的變化，不如說是我們興奮情緒的加速。我認為部分原因是美國商品期貨交易委員會（CFTC）的積極介入。

What went from sort of a hands off. We're not going to comment posture from the previous interim chair is now full-fledged affirmation that this is something that the CFTC considers to be firmly under their jurisdiction. They intend to defend in the courts and they're going to issue real guidelines and regulations.

原本是放任不管的狀態，現在卻變成這樣了。我們不會對此發表評論，而前臨時主席的立場現在已完全確認，CFTC 認為此事完全屬於其管轄範圍。他們打算在法庭上進行辯護，並且將會發布真正的指導方針和規章制度。

So anything that creates a stable regulatory environment that allows us to operate more freely is a great upside thing for us. And then you combine that with what we're seeing in our early numbers and what we're seeing in the broader numbers from some of the others in the market, and it's clear that there's a lot of growth potential here. I've seen analyst estimates as high as $16 billion. We centered around $10 billion, which is kind of the average of a bunch and some backed envelope math we were doing as well. but it's clearly a huge opportunity.

因此，任何能夠創造穩定監管環境，讓我們能夠更自由地運作的事情，對我們來說都是一件非常有利的事情。然後，結合我們從早期數據中看到的情況，以及從市場上其他一些公司的更廣泛數據中看到的情況，很明顯，這裡有很大的成長潛力。我見過分析師給出的預測高達 160 億美元。我們最終確定的金額在100億美元左右，這算是我們一系列估算和一些粗略估算的平均值。但這顯然是一個巨大的機會。

We're incredibly well positioned. And I think the biggest thing that was sort of holding us back, if you will, before was the regulatory uncertainty and that has since been cleared up. So with that, I think, really, really excited and combine that with what we're seeing in the numbers. And I think it's going to be a big year. As far as the investment level, one of the great things for us is we already have a lot of what we need. We have the pricing models.

我們擁有得天獨厚的優勢。我認為之前阻礙我們發展的最大因素是監管的不確定性，而這個問題現在已經解決了。所以，考慮到這一點，我真的非常興奮，再加上我們從數據中看到的情況。我認為這將是意義重大的一年。就投資水準而言，對我們來說的一大優勢是我們已經擁有了所需的大部分資源。我們有定價模型。

We have the marketing. Yes, we'll probably spend some incremental marketing, but we can repurpose a lot of our marketing. We have a ton of national spend targeting the sports customer already. So there's a ton of synergy there. I think it's a huge advantage for us that we can do that.

我們有行銷方面的資源。是的，我們可能會增加一些行銷投入，但我們可以重新利用許多現有的行銷資源。我們已經投入大量資金在全國範圍內針對體育消費者進行行銷。所以這其中存在著巨大的綜效。我認為我們能夠做到這一點對我們來說是一個巨大的優勢。

Got it. And then just for my follow-up. In terms of the guidance, obviously, there's an implied deceleration in revenues. I think it's around 11% in 2026. Can you maybe just give us the building blocks there for how you're thinking about sports betting within that? And then certainly, handle, that's been a focus. You mentioned January was up 4%, but in terms of just the building blocks for sports and kind of that broader revenue growth guide for 2026 would be helpful.

知道了。然後，我還要跟進一下。從業績指引來看，顯然暗示著營收成長放緩。我認為到 2026 年，這個比例會在 11% 左右。您能否簡要介紹一下您是如何看待體育博彩的？當然，處理問題一直是關注的重點。您提到 1 月份成長了 4%，但就體育產業的基礎發展而言，如果能提供 2026 年更廣泛的收入成長指導，那就太好了。

Yes. I just want to start a little bit on philosophy. So first several years, we are public. We are very conservative in our guidance. We consistently were beating and raising.

是的。我想先簡單了解一下哲學。所以最初幾年，我們是上市公司。我們的指導方針非常保守。我們一直在贏球和漲球。

And we kind of got away from that a little bit. I look at 2023, at the beginning of 2023, we guided to what all of you thought was a disappointing number. We got killed. I think we were down like 16% on the day. And then we proceeded to beat and raise every quarter for the rest of the year and got it back and then some ended up, I think, about $300 million better on the EBITDA side, adjusted EBITDA side from what we originally guided.

我們有點偏離了那個方向。展望 2023 年，在 2023 年初，我們得到了一個令大家失望的數字。我們被殺了。我記得那天我們跌了大約16%。然後，我們在接下來的幾個月裡每個季度都超額完成業績並有所增長，最終不僅收回了成本，而且我認為，調整後的 EBITDA 比我們最初預期的還要高出約 3 億美元。

So I like that playbook a lot better, and we got away from that. I thought we had a good year last year. So it's very frustrating to me that we missed our guide. That was a self-inflicted wound that we did that.

所以我更喜歡那種戰術方案，但我們最終放棄了它。我覺得我們去年過得很好。所以，我們錯過了導遊，這讓我非常沮喪。那是我們自作自受。

We ended up growing our adjusted EBITDA by $440 million. We had a great revenue growth year, 27%. How we could do that and miss a guide, just shame on us, right? So I think we really went back the other way. We said, let's make sure we put something out there that we feel really good about.

最終，我們的調整後 EBITDA 成長了 4.4 億美元。我們今年的營收成長非常可觀，達到了 27%。我們怎麼能錯過嚮導呢，真是太慚愧了，對吧？所以我覺得我們真的走了回頭路。我們當時就說，一定要確保我們推出的作品是我們自己真正滿意的。

It kind of went like this. My team came in and showed me a number and said we can hit this and I said, no, go make it lower. And they went back and they said, okay, now really like we're sure we can hit this. And he said, I don't care make it lower again, and that's what we got. But for me, missing numbers again, is just not acceptable. And so it's not something we're willing to do.

事情大概是這樣的。我的團隊進來給我看了一個數字，說我們可以達到這個目標，我說，不，去把它做得更低。他們回去後說，好吧，現在我們真的確信我們能成功了。他說，我不在乎，再降一點，我們就照做了。但對我來說，再次漏報數字是絕對不能接受的。所以，我們不願意這樣做。

David Katz, Jefferies.

David Katz，傑富瑞集團。

Along that same vein is the follow-up. I appreciate the conservatism and the candor there. Can you just maybe walk us through 2026? And just help us and this may be better suited for Alan, help us understand how to -- what could drive the revenue higher, right? Is there what do we have for prediction markets in that revenue guide in particular?

後續工作也遵循同樣的思路。我欣賞那裡的保守主義和坦誠。您能否為我們簡單介紹一下2026年的情況？請幫幫我們，這可能更適合艾倫，幫我們了解一下——什麼因素可以提高收入，對吧？那份收入指南裡，關於預測市場，我們有什麼具體資訊嗎？

And obviously, you've given us a pretty a wider field of play, right, on the EBITDA side as well, right? what could cause us to be higher or lower as we go through the year, particularly around predictions. I think that's the part that we're trying to embed in the models.

顯然，你們也給了我們更廣闊的發揮空間，對吧，在 EBITDA 方面也是如此，對吧？是什麼因素可能導致我們在這一年出現波動，尤其是在預測方面？我認為這正是我們試圖融入模型中的部分。

Yes. So I think predictions really is all upside. There's nothing in terms of revenue in the guide. We're assuming that this is a year that we spend a lot on customer acquisition in terms of new user offers. There probably will be some revenue realistically, but it's just too early to quantify so we didn't put any revenue in the guide. So I think that's definitely a source of upside. And I think the core business has a lot of upside too.

是的。所以我認為預測結果完全是利好。指南中並未提及收入方面的內容。我們預計今年將在新用戶獲取方面投入大量資金。實際上可能會有一些收入，但現在量化還為時過早，所以我們沒有在指南中列入任何收入數據。所以我認為這絕對是一個好因素。而且我認為核心業務也有很大的發展空間。

Everybody gets hung up on handle, and we've tried to sort of start to educate people that you can't look at that in isolation a little bit more behind that. So if you look at last year, first 10 months of the year, January through October right before we issued our last guide, we had a net revenue margin of around 6.5%. And since then, November, December, January, February to date, so almost the last four months or so, we've had a net revenue margin of over 9%, which is about 40% higher. So this has to affect handle, right?

大家都很在意把手，而我們已經嘗試開始教育人們，你不能孤立地看待把手，而應該更多地了解它背後的含義。因此，如果你看去年，也就是今年前 10 個月，也就是 1 月到 10 月，在我們發布上一份指南之前，我們的淨收入利潤率約為 6.5%。從那以後，從 11 月、12 月、1 月、2 月到現在，也就是最近四個月左右的時間裡，我們的淨收入利潤率超過了 9%，比之前高出約 40%。所以這肯定會影響手柄，對吧？

So in the beginning of the NFL season, when customers were winning, we had really high teens handle growth a few weeks in that sort of October time frame. And then as we started doing better and as we started also being more efficient with promo, we started seeing more revenue growth. We did great, as you saw from Q4 revenue-wise, but the handle is going to slow a little bit. Even despite that, we're still growing handle, especially if you look outside of NFL. Outside of NFL, every single sport is up double digits right now in terms of handle growth.

所以在 NFL 賽季初期，當客戶們取得勝利時，我們在十月份的那幾周里實現了非常高的十幾個百分點的增長。然後，隨著我們業績的提升和促銷效率的提高，我們的收入也開始成長。正如您從第四季度營收數據中看到的那樣，我們做得非常出色，但銷售成長將會稍微放緩。即便如此，我們的用戶數量仍在成長，尤其是在 NFL 以外的領域。除了 NFL 之外，目前所有體育項目的投注額都實現了兩位數的成長。

So now that NFL is over, I expect will return to something more like what you guys probably expected. But you're going to see a slowdown in handle growth when we're winning that much and also we're optimizing promo.

既然 NFL 已經結束了，我預計情況會恢復到你們可能預期的樣子。但是，當我們取得如此大的成功，我們也正在優化促銷活動時，用戶成長速度將會放緩。

Stephen Grambling, Morgan Stanley.

史蒂芬‧格林布林，摩根士丹利。

Maybe to follow up on that question. I was hoping you could maybe give a little bit more detail on perhaps what you're seeing in terms of NGR spend in some of the older states, the ones that have been legal longer versus some of the newer. And then as you think about this year and maybe over the next couple of years, maybe how I think through increasing penetration versus increasing spend per head.

或許可以就這個問題做後續探討。我希望您能更詳細地介紹一下，您在一些較老的州（合法化時間較長的州）與一些較新的州相比，在 NGR 支出方面觀察到的情況。然後，當你思考今年以及未來幾年時，你可能會思考，提高市場滲透率與提高人均消費額之間的關係。

We're seeing growth pretty much across states -- state cohorts, I should say, so regardless of age, in terms of NGR, obviously, there's differences in terms of where that's coming from. And I'm sorry, what was the second part of your question?

我們看到各州（應該說是各州群體）的增長情況相當不錯，所以無論年齡大小，就淨增長率而言，顯然，增長的來源地有所不同。不好意思，您問題的第二部分是什麼？

How you think about increasing whether it's a penetration of customers within the state, like what the opportunity looks like there versus increasing spend per head?

您認為提高顧客在州內的滲透率，與提高人均消費相比，哪種方式更有優勢？

I think it's got to be both. I mean the reality is that especially in the older states, the customer growth is going to slow over time, but we still have a lot of upside in terms of monetizing customers. Our retention numbers look great. And so as we drive that parlay mix up as we add more things, I think you're going to continue to see increased monetization. In January, for example, our parlay handle mix was still up another 300 bps year-over-year.

我認為兩者兼而有之。我的意思是，現實情況是，尤其是在老牌州，客戶成長速度會隨著時間的推移而放緩，但我們在客戶變現方面仍然有很大的發展空間。我們的客戶留存率看起來很棒。因此，隨著我們不斷增加投注項目，提高串通投注的混合比例，我認為你會看到獲利能力持續提升。例如，1 月我們的串關投注組合年比仍成長了 300 個基點。

So still seeing really strong growth there. So that feels like a lever that's going to continue to produce dividends for at least the next several years. And if you look at some of the parlay mix numbers in Europe and other parts of the world, it's much higher than where we are today. So seems like there's a lot of upside there.

所以，這方面仍然保持著非常強勁的成長動能。所以感覺這會是一個至少在未來幾年內會持續產生收益的槓桿。如果你看看歐洲和世界其他地區的一些串通投注組合，你會發現它們比我們今天的水平要高得多。所以看起來那裡有很多上漲空間。

And I still think there's a ton of room to optimize promo. I mean we are just starting to deploy AI and our promo engine in terms of optimization. And I think that's a huge lever for us to get more efficient and probably produce better results on the top line, too.

我仍然認為推廣方面還有很大的優化空間。我的意思是，我們在優化方面才剛開始部署人工智慧和我們的促銷引擎。我認為這對我們來說是一個提高效率、提升營收的巨大槓桿。

Eric Sheridan, Goldman Sachs.

艾瑞克‧謝裡丹，高盛集團。

I just want to come back to the predictions topic and ask it maybe just from a bit of a different angle. As you think about the different outcomes that produce return on the investments and predictions. How are you thinking about the levers of either expanding activity among existing users, widening sort of pool of people in your platform and sort of expanding the pie on the payer side. How should we be thinking about sort of it as a lever for user growth and activity growth in terms of trying to measure the return?

我只是想回到預測這個話題，或許可以換個角度問。當你思考不同的結果會帶來投資和預測的報酬。您認為應該如何透過各種手段來擴大現有用戶的活躍度、擴大平台的用戶群體，以及擴大付費用戶的市場份額？我們應該如何看待它作為用戶成長和活躍度成長的槓桿作用，並試圖衡量其回報？

Well, since the product is so similar, it really isn't something that we see is largely incremental to our existing customers. And that's why we don't see much cannibalization from prediction operators in the states that we have been in. So really, for us, it's about incremental customers and other states, some of the biggest states in the country like California, Texas, Florida, we were not present in with OSB, and we have predictions there now. So there's opportunities for us.

由於該產品與現有產品非常相似，因此我們認為它對現有客戶而言並沒有什麼實質的增量。這就是為什麼在我們所處的州，我們沒有看到預測營運商之間出現太多的蠶食現象。所以對我們來說，關鍵在於不斷增加的客戶，以及其他一些州，例如加州、德州、佛羅裡達州等美國最大的幾個州，我們之前沒有在這些州使用 OSB 產品，但現在我們對這些州的市場前景有了預測。所以，我們有機會。

It was about half the country population-wise, that we were able to launch predictions. And so that's something really exciting. In some ways, I think of it as like even though it's not exactly the same thing, but just to sort of paint the picture of why we're excited. It would be like if you told me we opened up the rest of the US overnight to some lesser version, but still very strong version of sports product that could really monetize the customers and engage the customers in ways that we never were able to with Fantasy Sports.

我們當時對全國大約一半的人口進行了預測。所以這真是一件令人興奮的事。在某種程度上，我認為這就像，雖然它並不完全一樣，但只是為了描繪出我們為什麼感到興奮的畫面。這就好比你告訴我，我們一夜之間向美國其他地區開放了一種功能較弱但仍然非常強大的體育產品，該產品能夠真正實現客戶盈利，並以我們以前在夢幻體育中從未做到的方式吸引客戶。

Ben Chaiken, Mizuho.

本·柴肯，瑞穗。

Just one on prediction, Jason, how do you plan to build liquidity in the Railbird exchange? And maybe related, do you view the DraftKings OSB platform as a competitive differentiator in this context?

關於預測，Jason，你打算如何提高 Railbird 交易所的流動性？或許與此相關的是，您認為 DraftKings OSB 平台在這種情況下是否具有競爭優勢？

I think the second one helps answer first, absolutely, it's a competitive differentiator. I mean everything from our pricing models to our data science around player behaviors to our vast array of marketing and data behind that. We just have so much infrastructure and so much data to be able to build on and leverage. And I think that given the similarities of the products, it's going to be hugely advantageous for us. .

我認為第二個問題有助於回答第一個問題，沒錯，這是一個競爭優勢。我的意思是，從我們的定價模型到圍繞玩家行為的數據科學，再到我們背後龐大的行銷和數據體系，所有的一切。我們擁有如此龐大的基礎設施和數據，可以以此為基礎進行建設和利用。我認為，鑑於產品的相似性，這對我們來說將非常有利。。

In terms of the liquidity question, I think first of all, virtually every market maker out there is lining up at the door, trying to get set up for Railbird. Obviously, they know we've come to really be aggressive in play here. So they're pretty excited. So we're going to have all the same market makers that you see on other platforms.

就流動性問題而言，我認為首先，幾乎所有做市商都在排隊等候，試圖為 Railbird 做好準備。顯然，他們知道我們在這裡已經變得非常積極主動了。所以他們都很興奮。所以，我們將擁有你在其他平台上看到的所有相同的做市商。

And then I think the DraftKings market maker is going to be a real differentiator in terms of creating liquidity, particularly in some of the new types of markets and combo type of markets that we set up. And again, because we have the pricing models, because we have the trading desk, we have all the things that you need already, we should be able to really quickly become one of the largest, if not the largest market makers out there.

我認為 DraftKings 做市商將在創造流動性方面發揮真正的差異化作用，尤其是在我們設立的一些新型市場和組合型市場中。再說一遍，因為我們有定價模型，因為我們有交易平台，我們已經擁有你所需的一切，我們應該很快就會成為最大的做市商之一，甚至可能是最大的做市商。

So I think that gives us a huge advantage in terms of supply and liquidity, and we haven't decided yet how many exchanges we want to operate on and exactly how we want to do that, but we'll definitely be operating our market maker on Railbird.

所以我認為這在供應和流動性方面給了我們巨大的優勢，我們還沒有決定要在多少個交易所運營以及具體如何運營，但我們肯定會在 Railbird 上運營我們的做市商。

Brandt Montour, Barclays.

Brandt Montour，巴克萊銀行。

So on prediction markets, could you guys help us with just what you spent or what you achieve sort of in late December post the launch, why wasn't it very splashy. And then when you think about your advertising plan here going forward, how do you get around the fact that most of your most of your work over the last few years has been more national advertising, but this is obviously going to be different with obviously a lot of legal OSB states that you wouldn't necessarily want to be advertising prediction markets in those markets or maybe you would. So maybe you could help us with that.

所以關於預測市場，你們能否幫我們說說在 12 月底產品發布後你們的投入或取得的成果，為什麼沒有引起太大轟動？然後，當你考慮未來的廣告計劃時，你該如何應對過去幾年你的大部分工作都是全國性廣告，但這次顯然會有所不同，因為很多法律法規規定你不一定想在這些市場投放預測市場廣告，或者你可能想投放。或許您能在這方面幫幫我們。

So when we first launched the product in December, it was very bare bones. It still is, frankly, but we've added a lot over the last few weeks. But we wanted to make sure, obviously, that we had a product that we felt was competitive, which we really are starting to feel like now. And then also, as we start to launch Rail Bird, which is coming next quarter, and we start to put more through our fully integrated stack, we're going to capture more of the economics, and that helps a lot, too, to get the returns that you want on the marketing spend. But for us, it's really about having the best product and making sure that when we really come and start being more aggressive that we feel like we have a very strong offering out there, and I don't think we're far off from that.

所以，當我們在去年 12 月首次推出產品時，它的功能非常簡陋。坦白說，現在依然如此，但我們在過去幾週增加了許多東西。但很顯然，我們希望確保我們的產品具有競爭力，而我們現在也確實開始有這種感覺了。此外，隨著我們下個季度開始推出 Rail Bird，並且我們開始將更多內容投入到我們完全整合的技術堆疊中，我們將獲得更多的經濟效益，這也有助於獲得您想要的行銷支出回報。但對我們來說，最重要的是擁有最好的產品，確保當我們真正開始採取更積極的策略時，我們能夠提供非常強大的產品，我認為我們離這個目標已經不遠了。

. In terms of the question around marketing, I think this is actually a huge advantage of ours. Most customers don't really even understand the difference. So I think the national marketing footprint is a big advantage because we can drive people towards our product, and we can use it in ways that we can rotate messages and have slightly different things, but in essence, it's the same general message to the customer. And I think that provides us a ton of leverage and synergy.

。就行銷方面的問題而言，我認為這實際上是我們的一大優勢。大多數顧客其實根本不懂其中的差別。所以我認為全國性的行銷覆蓋範圍是一個很大的優勢，因為我們可以引導人們了解我們的產品，我們可以輪換使用不同的訊息，但本質上，傳遞給客戶的訊息是相同的。我認為這為我們提供了巨大的優勢和協同效應。

It will drive value to both products at the same time. And we actually have a lot more detail on that because I know it sounds a little opaque now, but we have a very clear strategy that we're going to lay out at our Investor Day. I don't want to spoil it now, but I'm pretty excited about it that I think will answer your question directly on how we can really leverage that spend and get a huge synergy out of the national marketing spend that we have already.

這將同時提升兩款產品的價值。實際上我們還有更多細節要透露，因為我知道現在聽起來有點晦澀難懂，但我們有一個非常清晰的策略，我們將在投資者日上詳細闡述。我現在不想劇透，但我對此感到非常興奮，我認為它將直接回答你的問題，即我們如何真正利用這筆支出，並從我們已有的全國營銷支出中獲得巨大的協同效應。

Trey Bowers, Wells Fargo.

Trey Bowers，富國銀行。

I was wondering if you'd be willing to just kind of break down a little more granularity around the revenue guide. Is it kind of an expectation of a certain level of handle all year and then different levels of hold and promo against that? Or I know you've said that there's too much focus on handle, but I think the investors would love to get a sense of kind of the high end and the low end of the range, what went into that.

我想問您是否願意更詳細地解釋一下收入指南。是否預期全年保持一定的投注額，然後根據此預期採取不同程度的持有和促銷措施？我知道您說過人們過於關注手柄，但我認為投資者會很想了解價格區間的高端和低端，以及構成這些價格區間的因素。

Yes. It's tricky because you can build it up that way, but then what happens is you're going to have periods throughout the year that you hold higher and you have less promo that handles a little bit lower and then you're going to have periods where there's customer-friendly outcomes or promos hit it more, and that ends up pushing handle. So I think we feel much more comfortable in sort of the -- some products of all this. I think by the way, that was part of where we messed up going into 2025 that we've gotten a lot smarter on as we had this sequential, we're going to get this much handle and this much hold rate improvement from all the parlay mix and we're going to cut promo by this much, failing to maybe account for the fact that when you cut promo, even if it's efficient -- sorry, even if it's inefficient when you cut promo, you're going to have some impact.

是的。這很棘手，因為你可以透過這種方式建立起來，但這樣一來，一年中就會出現一些時期，你的銷售額會保持較高水平，促銷活動較少，銷售額會略微下降；然後又會出現一些時期，對顧客友好的結果或促銷活動會更加有效，最終導致銷售額上升。所以我覺得我們對這一切的某些產品感到更滿意。我認為，順便說一句，這是我們在進入 2025 年時犯的一個錯誤，而我們現在已經在這方面變得更加明智了。我們之前製定了一個循序漸進的計劃，例如我們將從所有串關組合中獲得多少投注額和多少持倉率提升，以及我們將削減多少促銷活動，但我們可能沒有考慮到，當你削減促銷活動時，即使它很有效——抱歉，即使它效率低下——你也會產生一些影響。

And when you hold better, whether it's because of outcomes or because of more parlay mix, it's going to have some impact on handle too. Obviously, the net is still very positive for us. If you look at it, we had a huge growth year in terms of revenue, but those things do move in tandem. So we can build it up that way. But I think the big difference now is we're sort of looking at it, these things all interact together and if we have plans to raise hold into promo, yes, that will have an impact on handle. It doesn't always play out that way, though, because of outcomes and other things that cause variance.

當你的投注表現更好時，無論是因為比賽結果還是因為串關投注組合更多，都會對投注額產生一定影響。顯然，總體而言，對我們來說仍然是非常有利的。從數據上看，我們今年的營收實現了巨大的成長，但這兩項指標是相輔相成的。所以我們可以這樣逐步建立它。但我認為現在最大的不同在於，我們現在開始關注這些因素，它們相互影響，如果我們計劃將持有期延長至促銷期，那麼是的，這將對交易量產生影響。然而，由於結果和其他因素造成的差異，事情並不總是會如預期發展。

And I guess just a quick follow-up. The monthly unique player number was flat year-over-year. You called out that Jackpocket was down. But can you guys just give a little more color around how that number should trend over time? And if that's even the right KPI to look at or would really be curious just kind of thinking about player counts and further penetration into kind of your younger states.

我想再補充一點。每月獨立玩家數與去年同期持平。你喊出了 Jackpocket 伺服器宕機的訊息。你們能否再詳細解釋一下這個數字隨時間推移的趨勢？如果這真的是應該關注的關鍵績效指標，或者我真的很好奇玩家數量以及在年輕州進一步滲透的情況。

Yes. So for those who remember, it feels like a long time ago, but 2024, the theme of the year for us was just significant outperformance on customer acquisition, and that just was way more than we expected. Customer acquisition came back down to earth a little bit in 2025. It was definitely still healthy, but it was a big drop from where we were in 2024 and more in line with where we thought we would be probably going into 2024. So good year, but with lower customer acquisition, you're going to see much decline because a lot of the early -- basically a new customer counts in the MUPs as you're getting them all year and then a lot of those new customers churn.

是的。所以對於那些還記得的人來說，感覺好像是很久以前的事了，但 2024 年，我們這一年的主題就是客戶獲取方面取得了顯著的超額收益，這遠遠超出了我們的預期。2025年，客戶獲取成本回落。雖然目前的情況仍然很健康，但與 2024 年的情況相比，下降幅度很大，更符合我們先前對 2024 年情況的預期。所以今年業績不錯，但由於客戶獲取量下降，你會看到大幅下滑，因為很多早期客戶——基本上，新客戶在全年都會被計入 MUP，然後很多新客戶都會流失。

And then once they've gotten through that early churn period, the retention numbers are really high. And of course, from a revenue retention standpoint, we're still seeing over 100% retention each year after a new user cohort is acquired.

一旦度過了早期流失期，用戶留存率就會非常高。當然，從收入留存率的角度來看，在獲得新的用戶群後，我們每年仍能維持 100% 以上的留存率。

So really healthy on that front. But if you look at MUPs, you're going to see a real impact from customer acquisition. And obviously, Jack pocket had a bit of an impact, too, with Texas and some of the other things. So if you take that away, we had about 5% growth in MUPs.

在這方面，身體狀況真的很好。但如果你觀察 MUP（最大用戶付費），你會發現客戶獲取對其產生了真正的影響。顯然，傑克口袋對德州撲克和其他一些撲克牌遊戲也產生了一定的影響。所以如果去掉這個因素，我們的MUP成長了大約5%。

Robert Fishman, MoffettNathanson.

Robert Fishman，MoffettNathanson。

Can you talk about how you would characterize the competitive environment and promotional intensity today and expectations may be baked in for the year ahead. both in OSB and prediction players? And then separately, can you just update us on the legislative front and whether production markets are pushing more states to start to consider legalizing OSB?

您能否談談您如何評價目前的競爭環境和推廣強度，以及未來一年的預期，包括OSB和預測型玩家的預期？另外，您能否單獨介紹立法方面的情況，以及生產市場是否正在推動更多州開始考慮將定向刨花板（OSB）合法化？

So first question, I think it's a very rational competitive environment from a promo standpoint right now. Promo is not a huge thing in prediction. So really, where we see some of the things happening there is more on the external marketing spend side. but really rational in terms of promo levels at the moment. Obviously, we said we have a conservative guide.

首先，我認為從促銷的角度來看，目前的競爭環境非常理性。促銷活動在預測中並不起決定性作用。所以，我們看到的一些變化更體現在外部行銷支出方面，但就目前的促銷力度而言，一切都非常理性。很顯然，我們說過我們採用的是保守的指導方針。

So we're prepared if things change, and we'll be able to deploy more. But as of now, we do think we have some cushion on the promo front in that. And then -- sorry, what was the second question?

所以，如果情況發生變化，我們已經做好了準備，並且能夠部署更多資源。但就目前而言，我們認為在促銷方面我們還有一定的緩衝空間。然後──抱歉，第二個問題是什麼來著？

Just around the legislative front for prediction markets.

就在預測市場立法方面。

Yes. I mean, so definitely getting traction on that. I think also with tax increases, we were getting a lot of traction pushing back there. My view states would be absolutely crazy right now to raise OSB taxes and everything going on with predictions. So definitely getting some good traction on both that and on future legalization.

是的。我的意思是，這方面肯定已經取得了進展。我認為，隨著稅收的增加，我們在這方面也獲得了極大的支持。我認為，鑑於目前的預測情勢，現在提高OSB稅絕對是瘋狂之舉。所以，無論是在這方面還是在未來的合法化方面，都取得了一些不錯的進展。

Hard to know yet because we're still in the midst of the sessions, whether it's going to make a difference in pushing any new builds over the line. But I am optimistic from what I'm hearing. I mean it is definitely a point of discussion in the states, and I think something they're taking very seriously. So I wouldn't be surprised if that's the difference between getting a state or two done this year or not.

由於會議仍在進行中，目前還很難說這會對推動新版本最終發布產生什麼影響。但我從目前聽到的情況來看，還是比較樂觀的。我的意思是，這在美國絕對是一個值得討論的話題，而且我認為他們非常重視這個問題。所以，如果這就是今年能否完成一兩個州的立法工作的關鍵所在，我不會感到驚訝。

Robin Farley, UBS.

羅賓法利，瑞銀集團。

I wonder if you could help us understand, I know you said you're not including production market [road] in your guide. But in the EBITDA number, how much of that is a built-in EBITDA loss? Can you help us quantify for your prediction market start-up costs so that we could think about the EBITDA from your core business? And also there was something in the language of your guidance that about line of site states or something that seems to imply, you were including some start-up costs for new states in your EBITDA guidance, which I think you haven't done in your more recent guidance, but maybe you can clarify if that's what was in there.

我想請您幫忙解釋一下，我知道您說過您的指南中不會包含生產市場（道路）。但是，在 EBITDA 資料中，有多少是內建的 EBITDA 虧損？您能否幫助我們量化預測市場的啟動成本，以便我們能夠考慮您核心業務的 EBITDA？另外，你們的指導文件中似乎提到了視線範圍內的州或其他類似的事情，這似乎暗示你們在 EBITDA 指導中包含了新州的一些啟動成本，我認為你們在最近的指導文件中沒有這樣做，但也許你們可以澄清一下，之前是否確實有這方面的內容。

Yes. So on the latter question, good capture, Robin, we did put main iGaming as well as Alberta in there. So there is some spend allocated to those states. We don't have exact timing on launch yet, but we feel certain enough that they're around the corner that we were able to quantify appropriately and put it in there.

是的。關於後一個問題，羅賓，你捕捉得很好，我們確實把主要的 iGaming 和 Alberta 都放進去了。因此，這些州獲得了一些撥款。我們目前還沒有確切的發佈時間，但我們確信它即將到來，所以我們能夠對其進行適當的量化並將其納入其中。

In terms of the predictions question, no revenue, as you noted, is in the guide. So not assuming we're going to get anything on the revenue side. From a spend perspective, I'll break it out into kind of two categories. There's fixed cost, which is double digits, but not that significant. There's mostly existing head count that we can repurpose and there is a lot of new head count too, that we had to hire.

關於預測問題，正如您所指出的，指南中沒有提供任何收入數據。所以，我們並不指望在收入方面能獲得任何收益。從支出角度來看，我會將其分為兩大類。固定成本雖然是兩位數，但並不太高。我們既可以重新利用現有的人員，也需要招募許多新員工。

So there is something there. But there's a lot of synergy also with some of the things we talked about in terms of the pricing models and other components of the business that we've built and the people operating those. So it won't be entirely incremental. It will be tens of millions. And then I think marketing, we're expecting to spend.

所以，這裡面一定有東西。但就我們討論過的定價模式、我們建立的業務的其他組成部分以及經營這些業務的人員而言，也存在著許多協同效應。所以這不會完全是漸進式的。將是數千萬美元。然後我認為行銷方面，我們預計會投入資金。

So there is some incremental marketing there for competitive purposes, I don't want to give an exact number. But as I also noted, I think a huge advantage we're going to have is that we can repurpose some of our national spend and we can also utilize some of our national spend to drive both OSB and prediction simultaneously.

所以，這其中有一些出於競爭目的的增量行銷，我不想給出確切的數字。但正如我之前提到的，我認為我們將擁有的巨大優勢是，我們可以重新分配一些國家支出，也可以利用一些國家支出來同時推動 OSB 和預測。

And we're going to talk a lot more about our strategy for that, which is really a big strategy unveil across product and marketing and bunch of other things on Investor Day, which I think will better explain how we're approaching marketing. And at that point, we'll have more specifics on this.

我們將在投資者日上更詳細地討論我們的策略，屆時我們將全面揭曉產品、行銷以及其他方面的策略，我認為這將更好地解釋我們是如何進行行銷的。屆時，我們將提供更多細節資訊。

I appreciate that. Just as a quick follow-up question. You mentioned, you call it combination trading options, which I guess is like a sort of equivalent like a parlay offering. In prediction markets, can you talk about whether the fact that you have the sports data that at the moment, I think the other prediction markets don't have access to or aren't able to purchase because of sort of gaming license regulatory reasons. It seems like there will be a huge advantage that your -- that you have that data already.

我很感激。還有一個後續問題。你提到，你稱之為組合交易選擇權，我猜這有點像串連交易。在預測市場方面，您能否談談您擁有的體育數據，而目前其他預測市場由於博彩牌照監管方面的原因，無法獲得或購買這些數據，這是否對您有利？看來你的一大優勢在於──你已經擁有這些數據了。

And would that -- I mean, in other words, isn't that a major advantage over prediction markets that wouldn't be able to access that data to create their own parlays?

換句話說，這難道不是對那些無法取得這些數據來創建自己串關的預測市場的巨大優勢嗎？

I think both that data as well as our vast historical database that we've built all of our prices. Remember, it's been years that we've been investing in building our pricing models to take all of this in-house. We bought SBTech and integrated in 2021. It wasn't until basically last year when we finally brought all of the major sports in all of the major markets in-house. So it takes time to amass that type of database.

我認為這些數據以及我們建立的龐大歷史資料庫都包含了我們所有的價格資訊。請記住，多年來我們一直在投資建立定價模型，以便將所有這些工作納入內部管理。我們於 2021 年收購了 SBTech 並​​進行了整合。直到去年，我們才終於將所有主要市場的所有主要運動賽事納入公司旗下。所以，建立這類資料庫需要時間。

It takes time to build those models and really hone those models so that they're working at a level that's ready for prime time. We have all that already. And you're right, we have the data coming in, too. So I think from that standpoint, we're going to be extremely well positioned.

建構這些模型需要時間，真正完善這些模型，使其達到可以投入使用的水平，也需要時間。我們已經擁有這一切了。你說得對，我們也有資料正在接收中。所以我覺得從這個角度來看，我們將處於非常有利的地位。

Clark Lempen, BTIG.

克拉克·萊姆彭，BTIG。

I have one on promo. Jason, I know you said you're seeing a rational promo environment within prediction, but I'm curious if -- as we think about the core sports book market, have you seen any uptick in intensity from smaller-scale operators? And if so, is that something that's sort of reflected in the guidance? Is there potentially room for sort of less promotional leverage built into the forecast?

我這裡有一台促銷裝。Jason，我知道你說過你在預測方面看到了一個理性的促銷環境，但我很好奇——當我們考慮核心體育博彩市場時，你是否看到小型運營商的競爭強度有所增加？如果是這樣，那麼相關指導意見中是否有體現呢？預測中是否有可能減少一些促銷力道？

Well, we did build in some cushion. As I said, it's a very conservative approach to the guide. So I don't think that, that is untrue, but not for the reason you're saying. We are seeing a very rational environment across both predictions and our traditional online sports betting and iGaming competitors. We have not seen a surge in promotional activity in a few years, thankfully. So hopefully, that continues.

我們確實預留了一些緩衝空間。正如我所說，這是一份非常保守的指南。所以我不認為那是不實的，但原因並非你所說的。我們看到，無論是預測還是我們傳統的線上運動博彩和 iGaming 競爭對手，都呈現出非常理性的環境。值得慶幸的是，我們已經好幾年沒有看到促銷活動激增的情況了。希望這種情況能夠持續下去。

Okay. Alan, I guess, just sort of a quick one on marketing. To the extent that you do end up using a lot more of the sort of Amazon and NBC and ESPN national inventory that you have for prediction. Is there [skill] flexibility in '26 if you're seeing better LTVs and sort of tax and response rates from the core customers to lean in there? Or how would you, I guess, sort of assess the room to do both.

好的。艾倫，我想，就簡單談談行銷吧。也就是說，你最終會更多地使用亞馬遜、NBC 和 ESPN 這類全國性媒體資源來進行預測。如果 2026 年你看到客戶終身價值 (LTV) 更高，並且核心客戶的稅收和回應率有所提高，那麼技能方面是否有更大的靈活性，可以加大投入？或者，我想，你會如何評估房間，才能做到這兩點呢？

Absolutely. And this is one of the reasons why we're being so measured in our rollout of prediction markets as we start to evaluate the value of these customers. We do have flexibility to lean into marketing spend appropriately to make sure we're capturing long-term value. We're in this to win, and that means spending the appropriate amounts in 2026.

絕對地。這也是為什麼我們在推出預測市場時如此謹慎的原因之一，因為我們需要開始評估這些客戶的價值。我們有足夠的靈活性，可以適當增加行銷支出，以確保獲得長期價值。我們的目標是贏得勝利，這意味著要在 2026 年投入適當的資金。

Jordan Bender, Citizens.

喬丹本德，市民。

You might get into this in more detail at the Investor Day, but a question we often get is who are these prediction market players. So from the two months that you've been live, you're just general expectations, can you just kind of shed light on that? Are they short -- are they whales? Do they play Pick6, do they play fantasy? And just a follow-up.

您可能會在投資者日上更詳細地探討這個問題，但我們經常被問到的一個問題是，這些預測市場參與者是誰。直播至今兩個月，大家對你的整體期望是什麼？能簡單談談這方面嗎？它們個頭矮嗎？它們是鯨魚嗎？他們玩Pick6遊戲嗎？他們玩夢幻遊戲嗎？還有一個後續問題。

I'm just thinking through the comments around maybe the underperformance on the handle for the NFL. Do you think that's just the word line driven and kind of match up? Or is there anything else to kind of pull out in that (inaudible)?

我只是在思考一些關於 NFL 手柄表現不佳的評論。你覺得這只是文字遊戲的結果，或者說是某種配對嗎？或是有其他可以補充說明的嗎？（聽不清楚）？

Yes. I mean the most common theme we're seeing with prediction players is they tend to be Californians and Texans. So I think that's really the big theme. Otherwise, they look a lot like our existing customers. And sorry, what was the second question?

是的。我的意思是，我們看到的預測玩家中最常見的一個共同點是，他們往往是加州人和德州人。所以我認為這才是真正的主題。除此之外，他們看起來和我們現有的客戶非常相似。不好意思，第二個問題是什麼來著？

Just anything to impact on the underperformance in handling the NFL compared to everything else.

任何能影響NFL賽事表現（與其他賽事相比）的因素都行。

I mean, really, it comes down to the point I made earlier on the net rate. So we had a -- just to remind everybody, January through October, first 10 months of 2025, we had about 6.5% net revenue margin. That was then -- since then, it has been over 9%, which is a 40% increase. So you're going to see some changes to handle when your revenue is going up that much from other levers. That's the biggest thing.

我的意思是，說到底，這還是我之前提到的淨利率問題。所以，提醒大家一下，2025 年 1 月至 10 月，也就是 2025 年前 10 個月，我們的淨收入利潤率約為 6.5%。那是當時的情況——從那以後，已經超過 9%，成長了 40%。所以，當你的收入透過其他途徑大幅成長時，你會看到一些變化來應對。這是最重要的事。

I think another point of evidence in that is if you look at the non-NFL Sports, they're actually up double digits in handle growth. We haven't been holding in promo. We haven't had a strong net revenue margins there. Obviously, there's some player crossover. And if you split it out from players that are not playing NFL and are just playing those, they're handles up even more. So really clearly points towards there's just fluctuations in handle. But even despite that, we're still growing handle right now.

我認為另一個佐證是，如果你看看非 NFL 體育賽事，它們的投注額實際上實現了兩位數的增長。我們並沒有刻意隱瞞促銷活動。我們在該地區的淨收入利潤率並不高。顯然，有些球員是重疊的。如果把那些不打 NFL 的球員，只打 NFL 的球員，他們的控球次數就更多了。所以很明顯，這表示處理量只是存在波動。但即便如此，我們目前仍在成長用戶量。

I mean January handle was up. We had handled growing in the high teens after we had some low whole weeks to start NFL earlier in the season. But overall, really you have to look at the kind of net revenue. And I guess you're not going to see zero effect to handle when you increase your net revenue margin for that 40% over a 4-month period after 10 months of holding of having it at 6.5%.

我的意思是，一月的交易量就上去了。在賽季初 NFL 開局階段經歷了幾個低迷的星期後，我們成功控制住了局面，最終在十幾名球員中取得了不錯的成績。但總的來說，你真正需要關注的是淨收入。我想，如果你在 10 個月內將淨收入利潤率提高到 40%，而此前 10 個月一直保持在 6.5%，那麼在 4 個月內提高到 40% 肯定會產生一些影響。

Thank you. At this time, I would now like to turn the conference back over to Jason Roberts, CEO, for closing remarks.

謝謝。現在，我謹將會議交還給執行長傑森·羅伯茨，請他作閉幕致詞。

Thank you all for joining today's call. We are really excited and positioned really well for success in the future. Please join us at our Virtual Investor Day coming up in March. We have a lot of exciting new things to unveil there, including our strategy for winning (inaudible) Reductions. Hope to see you all there. Thank you and be well.

感謝各位參加今天的電話會議。我們感到非常興奮，並且已經為未來的成功做好了充分的準備。請參加我們三月即將舉行的線上投資者日活動。我們有很多令人興奮的新東西要在那裡揭曉，包括我們贏得（聽不清楚）減價的策略。希望在那裡見到大家。謝謝，祝您一切安好。

This concludes today's conference call. Thank you for participating. You may now disconnect.

今天的電話會議到此結束。感謝您的參與。您現在可以斷開連線了。