迪士尼 (DIS) 2019 Q4 法說會逐字稿

完整原文

使用警語:中文譯文來源為 Google 翻譯,僅供參考,實際內容請以英文原文為主

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for standing by, and welcome to the Walt Disney Company's Fiscal Full Year and Fourth Quarter 2019 Financial Results Conference Call. (Operator Instructions) Please be advised that today's conference is being recorded. (Operator Instructions)

    女士們,先生們,感謝你們的支持,歡迎參加華特迪士尼公司 2019 財年全年和第四季度財務業績電話會議。(操作員指示)請注意,今天的會議正在錄音。(操作員指示)

  • I would now like to hand the conference over to your speaker today, Mr. Lowell Singer, Senior Vice President of Investor Relations. Thank you. Please go ahead, sir.

    現在,我想將會議交給今天的發言人、投資者關係高級副總裁洛威爾辛格先生。謝謝。先生,請繼續。

  • Lowell Singer - SVP of IR

    Lowell Singer - SVP of IR

  • Good afternoon, and welcome to the Walt Disney Company's Fourth Quarter 2019 Earnings Call. Our press release was issued about 25 minutes ago and is available on our website at www.disney.com/investors. Today's call is also being webcast and a transcript will be available on our website.

    下午好,歡迎參加華特迪士尼公司 2019 年第四季財報電話會議。我們的新聞稿大約在 25 分鐘前發布,可在我們的網站 www.disney.com/investors 上查閱。今天的電話會議也將進行網路直播,會議記錄可在我們的網站上查閱。

  • Joining me for today's call are Bob Iger, Disney's Chairman and Chief Executive Officer; and Christine McCarthy, Senior Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer. Following comments from Bob and Christine, we'll be happy to take your questions.

    參加今天電話會議的還有迪士尼董事長兼執行長鮑勃·伊格爾 (Bob Iger) 和高級執行副總裁兼財務長克里斯汀·麥卡錫 (Christine McCarthy)。根據鮑勃和克里斯汀的評論,我們很樂意回答您的問題。

  • So with that, I'll turn the call over to Bob to get started.

    因此,我將把電話轉給鮑伯開始通話。

  • Robert A. Iger - Chairman & CEO

    Robert A. Iger - Chairman & CEO

  • Thanks, Lowell, and good afternoon, everyone. We're now just days away from launching Disney+, the culmination of 4 years of planning, organizational transformation and a lot of hard work, and we're excited to be on the verge of this new era. We're also pleased to have delivered a solid quarter, which Christine will discuss shortly.

    謝謝,洛威爾,大家午安。現在,距離 Disney+ 的推出僅剩幾天時間,這是我們四年規劃、組織轉型和大量辛勤工作的成果,我們很高興能夠進入這個新時代。我們也很高興能夠實現一個穩健的季度,克里斯汀很快就會討論這一點。

  • Before she does, I wanted to share a few thoughts about our DTC business to give you a sense of the confidence we have in our strategy and to provide a few updates. As you know, we began this process with the acquisition of BAMTech, which gave us the means to implement our DTC strategy, putting us into the market quickly and ensuring we have the technology to deliver a quality experience. Our first effort was ESPN+, which was an immediate hit with sports fans when it launched last year and continues to deliver steady growth. I'm pleased to announce that as of today, ESPN+ has over 3.5 million paid subscribers who were drawn to its unique and growing mix of original content like the legendary NFL PrimeTime with Chris Berman, now exclusively on ESPN+. And exclusive live events, including UFC, college sports, domestic and international soccer and Top Rank Boxing. The UFC 244 pay-per-view event last Saturday delivered one of ESPN+'s largest live audiences to date. Viewing patterns show ESPN+ appeals to a broad array of sports fans: those who want more of everything as well as fans who are highly passionate about a specific sport, conference or team. We believe we have numerous interesting opportunities to expand ESPN+'s Live and original program offerings and to steadily grow subscribers.

    在此之前,我想分享一些關於我們 DTC 業務的想法,讓您了解我們對策略的信心,並提供一些更新。如您所知,我們透過收購 BAMTech 開始了這一進程,這為我們實施 DTC 策略提供了手段,使我們迅速進入市場並確保我們擁有提供優質體驗的技術。我們的第一個嘗試是 ESPN+,它在去年推出時立即受到了體育迷的熱烈追捧,並且繼續保持著穩定的增長。我很高興地宣布,截至今天,ESPN+ 擁有超過 350 萬付費訂閱用戶,他們被其獨特且不斷增長的原創內容所吸引,例如傳奇的 NFL PrimeTime with Chris Berman,現在僅在 ESPN+ 上播出。以及獨家現場賽事,包括 UFC、大學體育賽事、國內和國際足球以及 Top Rank 拳擊。上週六舉行的 UFC 244 付費觀看賽事是 ESPN+ 迄今為止最大的現場觀眾之一。觀看模式顯示 ESPN+ 吸引了廣泛的運動迷:那些想要了解更多內容的運動迷,以及對特定運動、聯盟或球隊充滿熱情的運動迷。我們相信,我們有許多有趣的機會來擴展 ESPN+ 的現場和原創節目產品並穩步增加訂閱用戶。

  • As I've said, our acquisition of 21st Century Fox was largely driven by the value it brought to our overall DTC strategy, adding a number of critical elements, including control of Hulu, which opens numerous growth opportunities domestically and internationally. We also gained a large library of quality film and television content, along with additional filmmaking capabilities and the industry's best TV production studios, great talent, great brands and franchises like Nat Geo and FX, along with the Simpsons and Avatar. This collection of IP and talent will contribute significantly to Disney+ and Hulu. And with that in mind, beginning in March, Hulu will become the official streaming home for FX networks.

    正如我所說,我們收購 21 世紀福斯主要是因為它為我們的整體 DTC 策略帶來了價值,增加了許多關鍵元素,包括對 Hulu 的控制權,這為國內外帶來了許多成長機會。我們還獲得了大量優質電影和電視內容,以及額外的電影製作能力和業內最好的電視製作工作室、優秀人才、優秀品牌和特許經營權,如國家地理和 FX,以及《辛普森一家》和《阿凡達》。這些 IP 和人才的集合將為 Disney+ 和 Hulu 做出重大貢獻。考慮到這一點,從三月開始,Hulu 將成為 FX 網路的官方串流平台。

  • As I've mentioned on previous calls, FX is a producer of high-quality, award-winning content and will become a key content driver for Hulu. Since 2014, FX has earned 277 Emmy nominations and won 57 Emmys. The awards FX have garnered come from programming that is recognized for its quality and its boldness, and the Hulu and FX teams have been collaborating to develop an exciting strategy to bring the full breadth of FX content and production capabilities to Hulu subscribers with the introduction of FX on Hulu. FX on Hulu will include all seasons of more than 40 FX series, and will offer episodes of current and new FX series immediately after they air on the linear network Additionally, FX will produce original series exclusively for FX on Hulu, starting with 4 new series in 2020: Devs from Alex Garland; Mrs. America, starring Cate Blanchett; A Teacher, starring Kate Mara; and The Old Man, starring Jeff Bridges and John Lithgow. This is a great way to expand the FX brand and an important step for Hulu as it adds original content to compete more aggressively with new and legacy DTC platforms. The FX presence on Hulu, combined with original production from our ABC and Fox Television Studios and our Fox movie studios, including Searchlight, will greatly enhance Hulu's consumer proposition.

    正如我在之前的電話會議中提到的,FX 是一家高品質、屢獲殊榮的內容製作商,並將成為 Hulu 的主要內容驅動力。自 2014 年以來,FX 已獲得 277 項艾美獎提名,並贏得 57 項艾美獎。FX 所獲獎項均源自其以品質和大膽創意而獲得認可的節目,Hulu 和 FX 團隊一直在合作制定一項激動人心的策略,透過在 Hulu 上推出 FX,將 FX 的全方位內容和製作能力帶給 Hulu 訂閱用戶。Hulu 上的 FX 將包括 40 多部 FX 系列的所有季,並將在當前和新的 FX 系列在線性網絡播出後立即提供劇集。此外,FX 還將為 Hulu 上的 FX 獨家製作原創劇集,從 2020 年的 4 部新劇集開始:亞歷克斯·加蘭 (Alex Garland) 的《Devs》;《Mrs.》《美國》(凱特布蘭琪主演)、《一位老師》(凱特瑪拉主演)以及《老人與海》(由傑夫布里吉斯和約翰利特高主演)。這是擴大 FX 品牌的絕佳方式,也是 Hulu 的重要一步,因為它增加了原創內容,以便與新的和傳統的 DTC 平台進行更激烈的競爭。Hulu 上的 FX 內容,加上我們 ABC 和福克斯電視工作室以及包括 Searchlight 在內的福克斯電影工作室的原創作品,將極大地增強 Hulu 的消費者吸引力。

  • Turning to Disney+. In preparation for the U.S. launch, we tested the technology in The Netherlands, giving consumers free access to a curated collection of library content, and we've been very pleased with the results, including the technical soundness and reliability of the platform. The user feedback has been extremely positive, with praise for the elegance and ease of the interface and the quality of the overall experience. The ability to download the content has also been a big hit, and the brand-centric navigation has generated an elegance and an ease-of-use that was well-received by users.

    轉向 Disney+。為了準備在美國推出這項技術,我們在荷蘭測試了這項技術,讓消費者可以免費存取精選的圖書館內容,我們對結果非常滿意,包括平台的技術完善性和可靠性。用戶的回饋非常積極,稱讚介面的優雅和簡單以及整體體驗的品質。下載內容的功能也大受歡迎,以品牌為中心的導航產生了一種優雅和易用性,受到了用戶的好評。

  • The viewing patterns in The Netherlands tests were also encouraging. Even without access to our full library or any original content, the service connected with users across all 4 quadrants, male and female, adults and kids, driven by the breadth of our content and the affinity people of all ages have for it.

    荷蘭測驗的觀看模式也令人鼓舞。即使無法存取我們的完整圖書館或任何原創內容,該服務也能與所有四個像限的用戶(男性和女性、成人和兒童)建立聯繫,這得益於我們內容的廣度以及各個年齡段的人對它的喜愛。

  • Disney+ launches in the U.S., Canada and The Netherlands next Tuesday, with Australia and New Zealand coming online November 19. And today, I'm pleased to announce, on March 31, Disney+ will launch in markets across Western Europe, including the U.K., France, Germany, Italy, Spain and a number of other countries in the region. At launch, Disney+ users will have immediate access to more than 500 movies, including all of our beloved vault titles and more than 7,500 episodes of library television content, including 30 seasons of the Simpsons. By year 5, this growing collection will include more than 620 movies and more than 10,000 television episodes, along with countless shorts and features. And as planned, when we first conceived this service, all creative engines across our company, including the teams at Disney, Pixar, Marvel, Lucasfilm, National Geographic, Disney Channel and Walt Disney Television Studios, are focused on creating compelling original content for Disney+.

    Disney+ 將於下週二在美國、加拿大和荷蘭上線,澳洲和紐西蘭將於 11 月 19 日上線。今天,我很高興地宣布,3 月 31 日,Disney+ 將在西歐市場推出,包括英國、法國、德國、義大利、西班牙和該地區的其他一些國家。上線後,Disney+ 用戶將可以立即觀看 500 多部電影,包括我們所有深受喜愛的影片和 7,500 多集圖書館電視內容,其中包括 30 季《辛普森家庭》。到第五年,這個不斷增長的收藏將包括 620 多部電影和 10,000 多集電視劇,以及無數的短片和長片。正如計劃的那樣,當我們最初構思這項服務時,我們公司的所有創意引擎,包括迪士尼、皮克斯、漫威、盧卡斯影業、國家地理、迪士尼頻道和華特迪士尼電視工作室的團隊,都專注於為 Disney+ 創作引人入勝的原創內容。

  • At launch, we'll offer 10 original movies, specials and series, exclusive to the platform, including the Mandalorian. The first live-action Star Wars Series is unlike anything audiences have seen before on any platform and is a strong indication of the quality and the storytelling that will define Disney+. We recently screened a significant portion of the first episode of the Mandalorian for press and the extremely positive reaction is driving tremendous buzz around this extraordinary series ahead of its debut on Disney+. Within a year of launch, the amount of original content on Disney+ will increase to more than 45 series, specials and movies and will expand to more than 60 original projects per year by year 5.

    在發佈時,我們將提供 10 部該平台獨家原創電影、特別節目和連續劇,其中包括《曼達洛人》。首部真人版《星際大戰》系列與觀眾之前在任何平台上看到的任何作品都不同,這有力地表明了 Disney+ 的品質和故事情節。我們最近向媒體放映了《曼達洛人》第一集的很大一部分,在該劇集在 Disney+ 上首播之前,觀眾的極其積極的反響為這部非凡的劇集帶來了巨大的轟動。在推出一年內,Disney+ 上的原創內容數量將增加到 45 多個系列、特別節目和電影,到第五年將擴展到每年 60 多個原創項目。

  • In addition to creating a phenomenal product, we're supporting the launch of Disney+ with an unprecedented marketing campaign, drawing on every existing connection the Walt Disney Company has with consumers. It's a historic effort to raise awareness and drive demand, one that reflects our all-in commitment to the strategic initiative and our determination to launch big and scale fast. We're also very pleased with the consumer enthusiasm we're seeing as well as the interest from partners like Verizon, which is now offering a free year of Disney+ to many of its customers. Consumers can directly subscribe to the service for $6.99 a month or $69.99 a year at Disney+.com. And starting November 12, they can access the service through a growing variety of partners and platforms, including Apple, Google, Microsoft, Sony and Roku. And today, we're pleased to announce additional distribution partnerships with Amazon Fire, Samsung and LG. Disney+ will also be available in a bundle with ESPN+ and ad-supported Hulu for $12.99 a month.

    除了創造非凡的產品外,我們還透過前所未有的行銷活動支持 Disney+ 的推出,利用華特迪士尼公司與消費者現有的每一個連結。這是一次提高知名度和推動需求的歷史性努力,反映了我們對策略性舉措的全力承諾以及我們大規模、快速擴大規模的決心。我們也很高興看到消費者的熱情以及像 Verizon 這樣的合作夥伴的興趣,Verizon 現在為許多客戶提供一年免費的 Disney+ 服務。消費者可以直接在 Disney+.com 上以每月 6.99 美元或每年 69.99 美元的價格訂閱該服務。從 11 月 12 日開始,他們可以透過越來越多的合作夥伴和平台存取該服務,包括蘋果、谷歌、微軟、索尼和 Roku。今天,我們很高興宣布與 Amazon Fire、三星和 LG 建立更多分銷合作夥伴關係。Disney+ 也將與 ESPN+ 和廣告的 Hulu 捆綁銷售,每月收費 12.99 美元。

  • We spent the last couple of years completely transforming the Walt Disney Company making strategic acquisitions and organizational changes to focus the resources and immense creativity across the entire company on delivering an extraordinary DTC experience unlike anything else in the market. With the launch of Disney+, we're making a huge statement about the future of media and entertainment and our continued ability to thrive in this new era. I'd like to take this opportunity to publicly acknowledge and sincerely thank the technical and creative teams, along with countless others across our company, who invested their tremendous talent and a lot of time and effort in creating an exceptional DTC experience that is worthy of the Disney name. I talk a lot about the inevitability of change, our ability to both drive it and adapt to it. It's part of Disney's DNA, and it helps keep us relevant to each new generation while also creating new opportunities for growth. It's exciting and exhilarating and on the eve of launching one of our most ambitious initiatives to date, I'm more confident than ever in our strategy and in our ability to execute effectively to deliver compelling value to our consumers and shareholders.

    過去幾年,我們透過策略性收購和組織變革徹底改造了華特迪士尼公司,將整個公司的資源和巨大創造力集中起來,打造出市場上獨一無二的非凡 DTC 體驗。隨著 Disney+ 的推出,我們對媒體和娛樂的未來以及我們在這個新時代繼續蓬勃發展的能力做出了重大聲明。我想藉此機會公開承認並真誠感謝技術和創意團隊以及我們公司無數的其他人員,他們投入了巨大的才華和大量的時間和精力來創造一個值得迪士尼名字的非凡的 DTC 體驗。我多次談論變化的必然性,以及我們推動變化和適應變化的能力。這是迪士尼 DNA 的一部分,它幫助我們與每一代新人保持聯繫,同時也創造新的成長機會。這是令人興奮和振奮的,在我們推出迄今為止最雄心勃勃的計劃之一的前夕,我比以往任何時候都更加相信我們的策略和有效執行的能力,為我們的消費者和股東提供引人注目的價值。

  • I'm going to turn the call over to Christine to talk about our performance in the quarter, and then we'll take your questions. Christine?

    我將把電話轉給克里斯汀,讓她談談我們本季的表現,然後我們會回答您的問題。克里斯汀?

  • Christine Mary McCarthy - Senior EVP & CFO

    Christine Mary McCarthy - Senior EVP & CFO

  • Thanks, Bob, and good afternoon, everyone. Excluding certain items affecting comparability, earnings per share from continuing operations for the fourth quarter were $1.07. We are pleased with our results this quarter and how we closed out the fiscal year. Our core businesses delivered another solid year of financial performance. We continue to make meaningful progress in integrating the 21CF businesses while making significant investments to drive future growth.

    謝謝,鮑勃,大家下午好。不包括某些影響可比性的項目,第四季持續經營每股收益為 1.07 美元。我們對本季的業績以及財政年度的結束方式感到滿意。我們的核心業務又取得了穩健的財務表現。我們在整合 21CF 業務方面繼續取得有意義的進展,同時進行大量投資以推動未來成長。

  • Our studio had another great quarter and a phenomenal year. In the fourth quarter, operating income was up 79%, driven by growth in worldwide theatrical due to the performance of the Lion King, Toy Story 4 and Aladdin in the quarter compared to Incredibles 2 and Ant-Man and the Wasp last year. The increase in operating income was partially offset by about a $120 million loss at the 21CF Studio business, which was driven by the performance of Ad Astra, Art of Racing in the Rain and Dark Phoenix. The loss from the 21CF Studio business was about $100 million higher than the loss we estimate the business generated in Q4 last year.

    我們的工作室又度過了一個輝煌的季度和一個非凡的一年。第四季度,營業收入成長 79%,這得益於《獅子王》、《玩具總動員 4》和《阿拉丁》的全球戲院票房成長,而去年同期則為《超人特攻隊 2》和《蟻人與黃蜂女》。營業收入的成長被 21CF Studio 業務約 1.2 億美元的虧損部分抵消,這筆虧損主要由《星際探索》、《雨中賽車》和《黑鳳凰》的出色表現所推動。21CF Studio 業務的損失比我們估計的去年第四季該業務產生的損失高出約 1 億美元。

  • At Parks, Experiences and Products, operating income was up 17% in the quarter, driven by higher results at consumer products and at our domestic parks and experiences business. Consumer products' operating income was up 36% due to growth in merchandise licensing as a result of strong revenue growth from sales of Frozen and Toy Story merchandise.

    在公園、體驗和產品方面,本季營業收入成長了 17%,這得益於消費品和國內公園和體驗業務的業績成長。由於《冰雪奇緣》和《玩具總動員》商品銷售收入強勁成長,商品授權業務收入成長,消費品業務營業收入成長 36%。

  • At parks, our strategy of managing yield to drive greater profitability and enhance the guest experience continues to pay off. Operating income at domestic parks and experiences was up 13% driven by growth at Disneyland on higher guest spending and an increase at Disney Vacation Club. Results at Walt Disney World were comparable to the prior year as increases in guest spending, occupied room nights and attendance were offset by higher costs associated with the launch of Star Wars: Galaxy's Edge. Domestic parks and experiences' margins were up 70 basis points in the quarter. I'll note that Hurricane Dorian had an adverse impact on Walt Disney World, which we estimate impacted the year-over-year change in domestic parks and experiences margins by about 80 basis points. Attendance at our domestic parks was comparable to the fourth quarter last year and reflects the impact of Hurricane Dorian, which we estimate adversely impacted attendance growth by about 1 percentage point. Per capita guest spending was up 5% on higher admissions, merchandise and food and beverage spending. Per room spending at our domestic hotels was up 2%, and occupancy of 85% was comparable to the fourth quarter last year. Results at our international operations were comparable to the fourth quarter last year as operating income growth at Disneyland Paris and Shanghai Disney Resort was largely offset by about a $55 million decline at Hong Kong Disneyland as circumstances in Hong Kong have led to a significant decrease of tourism from China and other parts of Asia. And based on the trends we saw in Q4 and what we are seeing so far in Q1, we expect operating income at Hong Kong Disneyland to decline by about $80 million for Q1. If the current trends continue, we could see a full-year decline of approximately $275 million versus fiscal 2019.

    在公園,我們管理收益以提高獲利能力和提升遊客體驗的策略繼續取得成效。受遊客消費增加和迪士尼度假俱樂部成長的推動,國內公園和體驗的營業收入增加了 13%。華特迪士尼世界的業績與去年持平,因為遊客消費、入住客房晚數和遊客人數的增加被“星球大戰:銀河邊緣”主題公園推出帶來的成本增加所抵消。本季度,國內公園和體驗的利潤率上漲了 70 個基點。我要指出的是,颶風多里安對華特迪士尼世界產生了不利影響,我們估計這對國內公園和體驗利潤率的同比變化產生了約 80 個基點的影響。我們國內公園的遊客人數與去年第四季相當,反映了颶風多里安的影響,我們估計颶風多里安對遊客人數增長產生了約 1 個百分點的不利影響。由於門票、商品和食品飲料消費增加,人均遊客消費上漲了 5%。我們國內飯店的每間客房消費上漲了 2%,入住率為 85%,與去年第四季持平。我們的國際業務業績與去年第四季相當,因為巴黎迪士尼樂園和上海迪士尼度假區的營業收入成長在很大程度上被香港迪士尼樂園約 5,500 萬美元的下降所抵消,因為香港的情況導致來自中國和亞洲其他地區的旅遊業大幅下降。根據我們在第四季度看到的趨勢以及我們在第一季迄今為止看到的情況,我們預計香港迪士尼樂園第一季的營業收入將下降約 8000 萬美元。如果目前的趨勢持續下去,我們可能會看到全年營收與 2019 財年相比下降約 2.75 億美元。

  • On the domestic front, we expect Q1 revenue growth at our domestic parks and resorts to benefit from a full quarter of Star Wars: Galaxy's Edge at Walt Disney World and the December opening of Rise of the Resistance at Walt Disney World. However, the revenue growth will be partially offset by meaningful cost growth driven primarily by operational expenses associated with Galaxy's Edge and higher labor expense due to the impact of higher wages under new collective bargaining agreements. So far this quarter, domestic resort reservations are comparable to prior year. We believe some guests are deferring visits to Disneyland and Walt Disney World until the complete opening of Galaxy's Edge at those respective locations. I'll note that awareness and intent to visit remains strong. Booked rates at our domestic hotels are currently pacing up 5% versus this time last year.

    在國內方面,我們預計國內主題樂園和度假村第一季的營收成長將受益於華特迪士尼世界「星際大戰:銀河邊緣」主題樂園的整個季度以及 12 月華特迪士尼世界「抵抗組織的崛起」主題樂園的開幕。然而,收入成長將被成本的顯著成長部分抵消,成本成長主要由與 Galaxy's Edge 相關的營運費用以及新集體談判協議下工資上漲導致的勞動力費用增加所驅動。本季迄今為止,國內度假村預訂量與去年同期相當。我們相信,一些遊客會推遲參觀迪士尼樂園和迪士尼世界,直到銀河邊緣在各自的地點完全開放為止。我會注意到,人們的參觀意識和意願仍然很強烈。目前,我們國內飯店的預訂價格比去年同期上漲了 5%。

  • Turning to Media Networks. Operating income was down 3% due to declines at cable and broadcasting, though results came in better than what we expected at the time we reported Q3 earnings. Lower cable results reflect a decrease at ESPN, partially offset by the consolidation of the 21CF cable businesses. At ESPN, higher programming and production costs driven by contractual rate increases for NFL, college sports and MLB programming and higher marketing expenses related in part to the launch of the ACC Network more than offset growth in affiliate revenue. ESPN's domestic linear advertising revenue was down 2% in the fourth quarter. And so far this quarter, ESPN's domestic cash ad sales are pacing up 3% compared to last year.

    轉向媒體網路。由於有線電視和廣播業務的下滑,營業收入下降了 3%,但業績好於我們報告第三季收益時的預期。有線電視業績下滑反映了 ESPN 的下滑,但被 21CF 有線電視業務的合併部分抵消。在 ESPN,由於 NFL、大學體育和 MLB 節目的合約費率增加,以及部分與 ACC 網路的推出相關的行銷費用增加,導致節目和製作成本增加,這抵消了聯營收入的增長。ESPN 第四季國內線性廣告收入下降了 2%。本季迄今為止,ESPN 的國內現金廣告銷售額與去年相比成長了 3%。

  • At broadcasting, results in the quarter were adversely impacted by lower program sales compared to last year. We sold 2 Marvel series, Daredevil and Iron Fist, during Q4 last year, and we didn't have comparable sales in the fourth quarter this year. We also had lower sales of Black-ish in the quarter compared to last year. The difficult program sales comp, coupled with higher programming expenses at the ABC Television network and lower TV station ad revenue, were largely offset by the consolidation of the 21CF Broadcasting business and higher affiliate revenue. Ad revenue at the ABC Network was up modestly in the quarter. Quarter-to-date, prime time scatter pricing at the ABC Network is running 47% above upfront levels. Total media affiliate revenue was up 18% in the fourth quarter and reflects the consolidation of 21CF and growth at both cable and broadcasting. The increase in affiliate revenue was driven by 15 points of growth from the acquisition of 21CF and 7 points from higher rates, partially offset by a 4-point decline due to a decrease in subscribers. Results at our Direct-to-Consumer & International segment reflect the consolidation of Hulu and ongoing investment at Disney+ and ESPN+, partially offset by the consolidation of the 21CF International cable businesses. Results at our Direct-to-Consumer businesses had an adverse impact on the year-over-year change in segment operating income of about $600 million. ESPN+ had a little over 3.4 million paid subscribers at the end of the fourth quarter, and Hulu had approximately 28.5 million paid subscribers. Overall, we are pleased with our fourth quarter and full year results and with the progress we're making on integrating 21CF.

    在廣播方面,本季的業績因節目銷量較去年同期下降而受到不利影響。去年第四季度,我們售出了兩部漫威系列電影《夜魔俠》和《鐵拳》,而今年第四季的銷售量並未達到同等水準。與去年同期相比,本季《喜新不厭舊》的銷量也有所下降。節目銷售收入的困難,加上 ABC 電視網節目製作費用的增加和電視台廣告收入的下降,在很大程度上被 21CF 廣播業務的合併和更高的聯營收入所抵消。本季度,ABC 電視網的廣告收入小幅成長。本季度迄今為止,ABC 電視網的黃金時段分散定價比預付水準高出 47%。第四季媒體聯盟總收入成長了 18%,反映了 21CF 的整合以及有線電視和廣播的成長。聯盟收入的成長得益於收購 21CF 帶來的 15 個百分點的成長和更高費率帶來的 7 個百分點的成長,但因用戶減少導致的 4 個百分點的下降被部分抵銷。我們的直接面向消費者和國際部門的表現反映了 Hulu 的合併以及對 Disney+ 和 ESPN+ 的持續投資,但被 21CF 國際有線電視業務的合併部分抵消。我們的直接面向消費者業務的業績對部門營業收入同比變化產生了約 6 億美元的不利影響。截至第四季末,ESPN+ 的付費用戶略多於 340 萬,Hulu 的付費用戶約為 2,850 萬。總體而言,我們對第四季度和全年的業績以及整合 21CF 所取得的進展感到滿意。

  • The 21CF businesses we acquired, excluding 21CF's stake in Hulu and net of intersegment eliminations, contributed approximately $130 million in segment operating income in the fourth quarter. Consolidating Hulu's operating losses and netting out intersegment eliminations resulted in an adverse impact to segment operating income of about $170 million. We estimate the acquisition of 21CF and the impact of taking full operational control of Hulu had a total dilutive impact on our Q4 EPS before purchase accounting of $0.47 per share.

    我們收購的 21CF 業務(不包括 21CF 在 Hulu 的股份和部門間抵銷額)在第四季度貢獻了約 1.3 億美元的部門營業收入。合併 Hulu 的營運虧損並扣除分部間抵銷額,對分部經營收入產生了約 1.7 億美元的不利影響。我們估計,收購 21CF 以及全面控制 Hulu 的營運將對我們第四季度每股收益(購買會計前)產生總計 0.47 美元的稀釋影響。

  • Before I conclude, I'd like to highlight a few additional items that should help frame our fiscal 2020 first quarter and full year results. First, we expect our Direct-to-Consumer and International segment to generate about $800 million in operating losses for the quarter. We expect the continued investment in our DTC services, specifically Disney+, which will launch in just a few days, and the consolidation of Hulu, to drive an adverse impact on the year-over-year change in segment operating income of our Direct-to-Consumer businesses of approximately $850 million. At the studio, we are very excited for the release of the much anticipated sequel to Frozen and the final film in the Skywalker Saga, Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker. We expect that the actual performance of these films to be key positive drivers of Studio's Q1 results. However, we expect the results to be partially offset by an operating loss of about $60 million at the 21CF film studio. While 21CF's performance will not be reflected in our prior year results, we estimate that 21CF film studio generated about $30 million in operating income during Q1 of fiscal 2019. I'll note that we don't expect a material increase in studio profitability in the first quarter from licensing the legacy Disney Studio Library to Disney+.

    在結束之前,我想強調一些有助於確定我們 2020 財年第一季和全年業績的其他事項。首先,我們預計本季直接面向消費者和國際部門的營運虧損將達到約 8 億美元。我們預計,對 DTC 服務的持續投資,特別是幾天后即將推出的 Disney+,以及對 Hulu 的合併,將對我們直接面向消費者業務部門營業收入的同比變化產生不利影響,該變化約為 8.5 億美元。在工作室,我們非常高興能夠發行備受期待的《冰雪奇緣》續集和天行者傳奇的最後一部電影《星際大戰:天行者的崛起》。我們預計這些電影的實際表現將成為影城第一季業績的關鍵正面推動力。然而,我們預計該業績將被21CF電影工作室約6,000萬美元的營運虧損部分抵銷。雖然 21CF 的表現不會反映在我們上一年的業績中,但我們估計 21CF 電影工作室在 2019 財年第一季創造了約 3,000 萬美元的營業收入。需要指出的是,我們並不認為將迪士尼工作室庫授權給 Disney+ 會為第一季的工作室獲利帶來實質的成長。

  • We estimate the acquisition of 21st Century Fox and the impact of taking full operational control of Hulu will have a dilutive impact on our Q1 earnings per share before purchase accounting of about $0.30 per share. We still expect the acquisition to be accretive to EPS before purchase accounting for fiscal 2021. We expect consolidated CapEx in fiscal 2020 to be $500 million higher than in the prior year. The increase in CapEx is primarily due to increases at DTCI and corporate.

    我們估計,收購 21 世紀福斯以及全面控制 Hulu 的營運將對我們第一季每股收益(購買前會計處理)產生約 0.30 美元的稀釋影響。我們仍預計,此次收購將在 2021 財年收購會計之前增加每股收益。我們預計 2020 財年的綜合資本支出將比前一年高出 5 億美元。資本支出的增加主要是由於 DTCI 和企業的增加。

  • And lastly, I'll note that our fiscal 2020 calendar will contain an extra week of operations, so our Q4 and full year results will benefit from the 53rd week. With that, I'll now turn the call over to Lowell, and we would be happy to answer your questions.

    最後,我要指出的是,我們的 2020 財年日曆將包含額外一周的運營,因此我們的第四季度和全年業績將受益於第 53 週。說完這些,我現在將電話轉給洛厄爾,我們很樂意回答您的問題。

  • Lowell Singer - SVP of IR

    Lowell Singer - SVP of IR

  • Okay. Thanks, Christine. And operator, we are ready for the first question.

    好的。謝謝,克里斯汀。接線員,我們已經準備好回答第一個問題了。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • (Operator Instructions) Our first question comes from Ben Swinburne with Morgan Stanley.

    (操作員指示)我們的第一個問題來自摩根士丹利的 Ben Swinburne。

  • Benjamin Daniel Swinburne - MD

    Benjamin Daniel Swinburne - MD

  • Bob, I want to ask you about 2 of the most important brands of the company, Marvel and Lucas, and how we should think about the contribution of those businesses or those studios over the next couple of years. I mean there's been a lot written about what's happening on the Star Wars front. I'd love to get your thoughts there. And on Marvel, sort of in post-Avengers world, how you think about mining that IP broadly for the company, whether we should be expecting a bit of a gap period in terms of contribution over the next couple of years. And then, Christine, one of the things that happens when you give us a lot of guidance is we come back to them. So I wanted to ask you about the numbers you gave us at Investor Day for 2020 in particular, around Disney+. I think you talked about $3 billion of OpEx. And you talked about Hulu peak losses of $1.5 billion in '19 and ESPN+ losses of $650 million. I'm just wondering if any of those numbers, we should be thinking have moved around materially or if those are still decent places to be thinking about.

    鮑勃,我想問您關於公司最重要的兩個品牌漫威和盧卡斯的問題,以及我們應該如何看待這些業務或工作室在未來幾年的貢獻。我的意思是,關於《星際大戰》方面發生的事情已經有很多報導。我很想知道你的想法。對於漫威,在後復仇者聯盟時代,您如何看待為公司廣泛挖掘該 IP,我們是否應該預期未來幾年在貢獻方面會出現一段空白期。然後,克莉絲汀,當你給我們很多指導時,發生的事情之一就是我們回到了他們身邊。所以我想問一下您在 2020 年投資者日上提供的數據,特別是有關 Disney+ 的數據。我認為您談到了 30 億美元的營運支出。您談到了 Hulu 在 2019 年的峰值虧損為 15 億美元,ESPN+ 的虧損為 6.5 億美元。我只是想知道,這些數字中是否有任何一個,我們應該考慮已經發生了實質性的變化,或者這些是否仍然是值得考慮的好地方。

  • Robert A. Iger - Chairman & CEO

    Robert A. Iger - Chairman & CEO

  • Ben, when we think about those 2 businesses, Marvel and Star Wars, we think about them as more than just films and film franchises. We look at them across multiple businesses and with different, basically, creative strategies in mind. So just as -- for instance, in both cases, while they're continual -- there will continue to be films either in development or in production, there's a lot of activity on the television front. Star Wars has 3 television series. They're in varying forms of production and more in development for Disney+, and Marvel has many more. So while in the Star Wars case, Star Wars 9, which comes out this December will be the last of the Skywalker saga, and we'll go into a hiatus for a few years before the next Star Wars feature, there'll be a lot of creative activity in the interim. In Marvel's case, I'll call it in the post-Avengers world, it doesn't mean there aren't films that aren't being made with characters from the Avengers. In fact, we have Black Widow coming out in fiscal '20 and a Thor 4 movie in the works, and I could go on and on. We also are mining other characters and character sets like Eternals. So as we look at these businesses, they're film businesses, they're TV businesses, they're still big consumer product drivers, and more and more, they have a greater presence at parks and resorts. And we feel really good about both their creative direction, but also their commercial direction.

    本,當我們想到漫威和星際大戰這兩大產業時,我們認為它們不僅僅是電影和電影系列。我們從多個業務角度對它們進行審視,並考慮不同的、基本上是創造性的策略。因此,就像——例如,在這兩種情況下,雖然它們是連續的——但電影將繼續處於開發或製作中,電視方面也有很多活動。《星際大戰》有 3 部電視連續劇。它們以各種形式進行製作,並且正在為 Disney+ 開發更多作品,而漫威還有更多作品。因此,就《星際大戰》而言,今年 12 月上映的《星際大戰 9》將是天行者傳奇的最後一部,在下一部《星際大戰》電影上映之前,我們將進入幾年的停頓期,但在此期間將會有大量的創作活動。就漫威而言,我稱之為後復仇者聯盟世界,但這並不意味著沒有以復仇者聯盟角色為主角的電影。事實上,《黑寡婦》將於 20 財年上映,《雷神索爾 4》電影正在製作中,我還能繼續說下去。我們也在挖掘其他角色和角色集,例如 Eternals。因此,當我們審視這些業務時,我們會發現,它們是電影業務、電視業務,它們仍然是消費產品的主要驅動力,而且它們在公園和度假村的影響力越來越大。我們對他們的創作方向和商業方向都非常滿意。

  • Christine Mary McCarthy - Senior EVP & CFO

    Christine Mary McCarthy - Senior EVP & CFO

  • And then -- this is Christine. On the guidance question, regarding the guidance that we provided in April at the Investor Day, it's fair to say that all of the guidance, and that goes across the 3 platforms, Disney+, ESPN+, and Hulu, is still as it was. We haven't made any changes to that. And having gone through the planning process for fiscal '20, we feel really good about fiscal '20 and achieving the goals that we've set.

    然後——這是克里斯汀。關於指導問題,關於我們在 4 月份投資者日提供的指導,可以公平地說,所有指導,以及涵蓋 Disney+、ESPN+ 和 Hulu 三個平台的指導,都仍然和以前一樣。我們尚未對此做出任何改變。在完成了 20 財年的規劃過程後,我們對 20 財年以及實現我們設定的目標感到非常滿意。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Our next question comes from Alexia Quadrani with JPMorgan.

    我們的下一個問題來自摩根大通的 Alexia Quadrani。

  • Alexia Skouras Quadrani - MD and Senior Analyst

    Alexia Skouras Quadrani - MD and Senior Analyst

  • Just 2 questions on the streaming side, if I may. First, any color you can provide on the early sign-ups on Disney+ for the launch, even just sort of general color, not necessarily numbers, which I'm doubtful you might offer so early on. And then if you can talk about the advertising opportunity of some of your other streaming services, specifically Hulu, where you're seeing a really meaningful scale now, and ESPN+ which also has seen such great growth, where I think you've also recently increased the pre-roll ad loads there. I guess how meaningful can the advertising side become for you guys?

    如果可以的話,我只想問兩個關於串流媒體方面的問題。首先,您可以為 Disney+ 的早期註冊用戶提供任何顏色信息,即使只是一般的顏色,不一定是數字,我懷疑您是否會在這麼早就提供這些信息。然後,您可以談談其他一些串流媒體服務的廣告機會,特別是 Hulu,您現在看到了真正有意義的規模,以及 ESPN+,它也取得瞭如此巨大的增長,我認為您最近也增加了那裡的片頭廣告量。我猜想廣告方面對你們來說有多大意義?

  • Robert A. Iger - Chairman & CEO

    Robert A. Iger - Chairman & CEO

  • Well, Hulu is a significant driver of advertising revenue and will continue to be, particularly as we grow Hulu out to essentially the guidance that we had given back at Investor Day, that basically ad-supported Hulu has very high ARPU, which is one of the reasons, Alexia, that it's being bundled with ESPN+ and Disney+ for that $12.99 price because the value of an ad-supported Hulu subscriber, given the advertising revenue that it drives, is very, very high. ESPN, there are also opportunities for growth, but probably the biggest opportunity is on the Hulu front. On the -- your first question, just in terms of color regarding Disney+ and call it pre-sales, we're not giving any specifics. Consumers were drawn to, basically, the marketing messages that we had out there, which is a reaction to the brands and the content, both library product and original product that's coming. Clearly, the price was met with a great enthusiasm among consumers, not just the single-month price because what we are really selling was the 3-year subscription, which is a big deal for us in terms of lowering churn. Now we're still relatively small in terms of the scope of things, in terms of number of subscribers. But I think the best way for me to characterize it would be to say that we're enthusiastic about what we saw the consumer reaction to be. We certainly feel good about the product that's going into the marketplace next week, and we'll know a lot more in just a few days. But it was good. And I should also say, I said it in my comments, The Netherlands launch was also very, very positive. And what was positive there were a few things, not just the fact that there was an enthusiasm for the service. But we had a good sense about how people were using it and what people were using it. The demographics were far broader than a lot of people expected them to be. This is well beyond kids and family. Clearly, this is a 4-quadrant product with adult men and women as well as kids and families watching or using the service. We also saw that people's interest in the product itself was very, very broad, meaning across all the brands. It wasn't as specific. And that also bodes very well. And we learned that some of the features, including the 4K, the HDR movies, were very, very popular. The fact that you could have 4 concurrent live streams, also very popular. The personalization was also quite popular. And most importantly, the ability to download without restriction was very, very popular.

    嗯,Hulu 是廣告收入的重要推動力,並將繼續如此,特別是隨著我們將 Hulu 的發展壯大到我們在投資者日給出的指導方針,基本上靠廣告支持的 Hulu 擁有非常高的 ARPU,這也是 Alexia 與 ESPN+ 和 Disney+ 捆綁銷售並定價 12.99 美元的原因之一,因為考慮到它所支持的 Hulu 廣告收入的非常高價值。ESPN 也存在成長機會,但最大的機會可能在 Hulu 方面。關於您的第一個問題,僅就 Disney+ 的色彩和預售而言,我們不會提供任何具體細節。消費者基本上是被我們發布的行銷訊息所吸引,這是對品牌和內容的反應,包括圖書館產品和即將推出的原創產品。顯然,這個價格受到了消費者的熱烈歡迎,而不僅僅是單月價格,因為我們真正銷售的是 3 年訂閱,這對於降低客戶流失率來說意義重大。現在,就範圍和訂閱用戶數量而言,我們的規模仍然相對較小。但我認為對我來說最好的描述方式就是說我們對消費者的反應感到非常興奮。我們對下週即將上市的產品感到非常滿意,而且幾天後我們就會了解更多。但它很好。我還應該說,我在我的評論中說過,荷蘭的發布也非常非常積極。積極的一面有很多,不僅僅是人們對這項服務的熱情。但我們很清楚人們如何使用它以及人們用它做什麼。人口統計數據比許多人預期的要廣泛得多。這遠遠超出了孩子和家庭的範疇。顯然,這是一款四象限產品,成年男性和女性以及兒童和家庭都在觀看或使用該服務。我們也發現人們對產品本身的興趣非常廣泛,涵蓋所有品牌。它不是那麼具體。這也預示著非常好的前景。我們了解到,包括 4K、HDR 電影在內的一些功能非常非常受歡迎。事實上,可以同時進行 4 個直播,這也是非常受歡迎的。個性化也相當受歡迎。最重要的是,不受限制的下載功能非常非常受歡迎。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Our next question comes from Michael Nathanson with Moffett Nathanson.

    我們的下一個問題來自 Moffett Nathanson 的 Michael Nathanson。

  • Michael Brian Nathanson - Founding Partner & Senior Research Analyst

    Michael Brian Nathanson - Founding Partner & Senior Research Analyst

  • Bob, a couple on Hulu. I guess on your scripted comments today, you referred to maybe a Fox Searchlight product, the movies going to Hulu. I wonder, does that represent where all the pay one movies go from this point on? Is that a strategic shift for Fox's Studio on the film side? The second question is, you also in the comments, mentioned international -- I know Hulu helps you internationally. So what -- is there an update on the Hulu international side based on those comments that you made before?

    鮑伯 (Bob),Hulu 上的一對情侶。我想,您今天的腳本評論中提到的可能是 Fox Searchlight 的產品,電影將登陸 Hulu。我想知道,這是否代表了從現在起所有付費電影的發展方向?這是福斯電影公司在電影方面的策略轉變嗎?第二個問題是,您也在評論中提到了國際——我知道 Hulu 在國際上為您提供了幫助。那麼—根據您先前發表的評論,Hulu 國際方面有什麼最新消息嗎?

  • Robert A. Iger - Chairman & CEO

    Robert A. Iger - Chairman & CEO

  • On the international side, we will have more to say after the first of the year. We're working through the formulation of a strategy in terms of what markets, when. It's complicated in terms of our -- we need to make sure that we have the right product in all the markets that we launch in and to be -- so it's locally relevant and locally compliant in terms of some of the rules and regulations. So I don't have much more to say there. Obviously, we have opportunities, and we're going to pursue them. I mentioned Searchlight briefly on the call, Searchlight is actually developing some original content for Hulu. The Searchlight and the Fox Movie studios had an output deal with HBO that runs for a few more years. I think, eventually, it's likely that the output would move to Hulu, but it's premature right now to speculate. What I mostly talked about on the call, as you know, Michael, is the fact that we're creating a huge FX presence on Hulu. And what that means is that FX is producing original programming for Hulu, original exclusive programming. We're also moving FX library, some 40 series and over 1,600 episodes, onto Hulu. And we're making available current shows that air on FX available on Hulu within hours after they air, as we do with traditional network shows.

    在國際方面,我們將在年初之後有更多話要說。我們正在製定有關何時進入哪些市場的策略。就我們而言,這很複雜——我們需要確保我們在所有推出的市場中都有合適的產品——因此,就一些規則和法規而言,它與當地相關且符合當地規定。所以我沒有太多要說的。顯然,我們有機會,而且我們會抓住機會。我在電話中簡要地提到了 Searchlight,Searchlight 實際上正在為 Hulu 開發一些原創內容。探照燈公司和福斯電影製片廠與 HBO 簽訂了為期幾年的輸出協議。我認為,最終,輸出可能會轉移到 Hulu,但現在猜測還為時過早。邁克爾,正如你所知,我在電話會議上主要談論的是,我們正在 Hulu 上創造巨大的 FX 影響力。這意味著 FX 正在為 Hulu 製作原創節目、原創獨家節目。我們也將把 FX 庫(約 40 個系列和 1,600 多集)轉移到 Hulu。而且,我們正在將 FX 上播出的當前節目在 Hulu 上提供,這些節目播出後的幾小時內就可以觀看,就像我們對傳統網絡節目所做的那樣。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Our next question comes from Doug Mitchelson with Crédit Suisse.

    下一個問題來自瑞士信貸的道格·米切爾森 (Doug Mitchelson)。

  • Douglas David Mitchelson - MD

    Douglas David Mitchelson - MD

  • Obviously, it'd be fun to know, Bob, what you picked for Disney+ subs in the office pool. But for something you might be willing to comment on, I'm curious on sports. You mentioned inevitability of change. Does sports need to change? It's viewed live. The bundle delivers sports well, monetizes it well. Obviously, you're pursuing ESPN+. So I'd love any learnings on ESPN+ and how it fits in the future of sports and what you think there. And Christine, just curious for Disney+ disclosures, are you going to give us U.S. subs separate from international in the future? And then I'm just curious on Fox execution. How that Fox solution might scale during the year? Does it sort of improve linearly during the year? Or is it sort of more of a step-function improvement in fiscal '21?

    顯然,鮑勃,知道你在辦公室池子裡選擇了什麼 Disney+ 字幕會很有趣。但對於您可能願意發表評論的事情,我對體育運動很好奇。您提到了變化的必然性。體育運動需要改變嗎?是現場觀看的。該捆綁包很好地呈現了體育內容,並很好地實現了盈利。顯然,您正在追求 ESPN+。因此,我很想了解有關 ESPN+ 的任何知識,以及它如何適應體育的未來以及您對此的看法。克里斯汀,我只是對 Disney+ 的披露感到好奇,你們將來會為我們提供與國際頻道不同的美國訂閱服務嗎?我只是對福克斯的執行感到好奇。Fox 的解決方案今年內將如何擴展?它在一年內是否會呈線性改善?或者這更像是 21 財年的階梯式改進?

  • Robert A. Iger - Chairman & CEO

    Robert A. Iger - Chairman & CEO

  • Doug, the answer to your first question is, I'm not aware that there is an office pool. And if there is an office pool, I am not participating in it, and I don't intend to.

    道格,對於你的第一個問題,我的答案是,我不知道辦公室裡有游泳池。如果有辦公室聯營,我不會參與,而且我也不打算參與。

  • On the sports side, as I look at it, what ESPN+ is teaching us is that the opportunity for the company with sports is probably multi-platform. What I mean by that is I think you'll continue to see ESPN available through essentially the multipack -- multichannel bundle on cable and satellite platforms. You'll see it available on a direct-to-consumer basis on ESPN+, which we intend to grow both in terms of the product that is on, and obviously, in terms of the subs. And I think you're likely to see more sports on ABC as the value of Live grows on the Live basically linear channels. So as we look long-term at sports, we look at basically making sports available to the consumer on the Live traditional network on ESPN and on ESPN+. We think that will be a good way not only to reach more consumers, but to monetize cost -- the acquisition of sports program rights in the best possible way.

    從體育方面來看,我認為 ESPN+ 告訴我們,體育公司的機會可能是多平台的。我的意思是,我認為您將繼續看到 ESPN 透過有線和衛星平台上的多頻道捆綁包提供。您將在 ESPN+ 上看到它直接面向消費者,我們打算在產品方面以及訂閱方面都實現成長。我認為,隨著直播價值在直播(基本上是線性)頻道上的不斷增長,您可能會在 ABC 上看到更多體育節目。因此,當我們從長遠角度看待體育賽事時,我們基本上會考慮透過 ESPN 和 ESPN+ 上的傳統直播網路向消費者提供體育賽事。我們認為這不僅是接觸更多消費者的好方法,也是將成本貨幣化——以最佳方式收購體育節目版權的好方法。

  • Christine Mary McCarthy - Senior EVP & CFO

    Christine Mary McCarthy - Senior EVP & CFO

  • So Doug, your question on subs and what we'll be disclosing on a go-forward basis. As we said at Investor Day and all the conversations we've had with analysts and investors since then, we intend to be very transparent as it relates to our DTC business, and the sub-counts are going to be something we know people will be interested in. So we will be providing, by the different platforms of, subs by those platforms. And because we'll be launching domestically, obviously, we expect Disney+ domestically to have a head start on any of the international markets. But as we go into the international markets, recognizing that it's not a big bang approach to launching all at the same time, there'll be a rollout there. But we'll give you enough guidance so you can look at the success of the rollout.

    那麼道格,你的問題是關於潛艇以及我們未來將披露什麼資訊。正如我們在投資者日以及此後與分析師和投資者進行的所有對話中所說的那樣,我們打算在涉及我們的 DTC 業務時保持高度透明,並且我們知道人們會對子計數感興趣。因此,我們將透過不同的平台提供這些平台的訂閱服務。而且由於我們將在國內推出,顯然,我們預計 Disney+ 在國內市場將比任何國際市場更具領先優勢。但當我們進入國際市場時,我們意識到,同時推出所有產品並不是一個大爆炸式的方法,我們會在那裡推出新產品。但我們會為您提供足夠的指導,以便您可以看到推出的成功。

  • Douglas David Mitchelson - MD

    Douglas David Mitchelson - MD

  • (inaudible)

    (聽不清楚)

  • Robert A. Iger - Chairman & CEO

    Robert A. Iger - Chairman & CEO

  • I'm sorry, Doug?

    對不起,道格?

  • Douglas David Mitchelson - MD

    Douglas David Mitchelson - MD

  • I said on the Fox dilution, the pacing during the year, is it a step-function improvement into fiscal '21? Or is there sort of a linear improvement in Fox solution throughout fiscal '20?

    我說過,關於福克斯的稀釋,今年的步伐是否會對 21 財年帶來階梯式的改善?或者 Fox 解決方案在整個 20 財年是否有某種線性改進?

  • Christine Mary McCarthy - Senior EVP & CFO

    Christine Mary McCarthy - Senior EVP & CFO

  • Well, what we said about Fox dilution is we are reiterating that we will be accretive in fiscal 2021. And we haven't gone into any more specifics than that.

    好吧,我們關於福克斯稀釋的說法是,我們重申我們將在 2021 財年實現增值。我們還沒有討論更多細節。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Our next question comes from Jessica Reif Ehrlich with Bank of America Merrill Lynch.

    我們的下一個問題來自美銀美林的傑西卡·賴夫·埃利希 (Jessica Reif Ehrlich)。

  • Jessica Jean Reif Ehrlich - MD in Equity Research

    Jessica Jean Reif Ehrlich - MD in Equity Research

  • A couple of questions. On Disney+, I have one more question. Can you talk about your plans and -- I'm sorry, I can't speak today, your plans for further third-party distribution? You haven't said anything about Pay TV operators. And what are the key trade-offs with these third parties as their billing -- you have access to the data -- will the subs come in through your apps so you have the data? And then on the parks, you called out in your press release lower attendance at Disneyland, which seems a little surprising. Are consumers waiting for the second attraction, the second Star Wars attraction? And your price increases in the past year have been on the high end of the historic range. Can you talk about the outlook for pricing in the next year or 2?

    有幾個問題。關於 Disney+,我還有一個問題。您能談談您的計劃嗎?而且—抱歉,我今天不能發言,您進一步的第三方分銷計劃?您還沒有提到付費電視業者。與這些第三方計費的主要權衡是什麼——您可以訪問數據——訂閱是否會透過您的應用程式進入,以便您擁有數據?然後關於公園,您在新聞稿中提到迪士尼樂園的遊客人數較低,這似乎有點令人驚訝。消費者是否正在等待第二個景點,第二個星際大戰景點?過去一年你們的價格漲幅一直處於歷史最高水準。能談談未來一兩年的定價前景嗎?

  • Robert A. Iger - Chairman & CEO

    Robert A. Iger - Chairman & CEO

  • All right. I'll take the second part of your question first. Price increases at the parks, really, we don't look at it just as increases. We look at it as an overall strategy that, as Christine said in her comments, is designed to basically grow yield, yield management. We're trying to basically increase the park experience by spreading demand out and by making the parks more affordable during periods of time, basically lower peak periods and, obviously, more expensive during peak periods, to limit the number of people that go in.

    好的。我先回答你問題的第二部分。公園的價格確實上漲了,但我們不認為這只是上漲。我們將其視為一種整體策略,正如克里斯汀在評論中所說,其設計目的基本上是提高收益、進行收益管理。我們試圖透過分散需求,降低公園在某些時段(基本上是高峰期)的門票價格,從而限制入園人數,從而提高公園的體驗,顯然,高峰期的門票價格會更高。

  • There was -- we believe that there were some delayed visitation to Galaxy's Edge, both at Disneyland and at Disney World, people waiting for the second e-ticket attraction to open. It opens in less than a month in Disney World, and it will open in January at Disneyland. So we sense that there are people that are just waiting for the whole thing to be open, which is fine. In the meantime, those 2 lands have been far more successful than have been reported. They've had a significant lift on per caps in merchandise and in food and beverage as for instance. Just to give you one crazy stat, the Millennium Falcon attraction has carried over 1.7 million people already since they've opened across both places, so -- and the guest experience, guest satisfaction, very, very high, and ride availability or attraction availability in the high 90s. That basically means that a very, very complex technological attraction is running really well.

    我們認為,迪士尼樂園和迪士尼世界的銀河邊緣主題樂園的遊客數量都有所延遲,因為人們在等待第二個電子票景點開放。它將距離迪士尼世界開幕還有不到一個月的時間,而迪士尼樂園也將於明年一月開幕。因此,我們感覺到有些人只是在等待整件事情公開,這很好。同時,這兩塊土地的成功遠比報導的還要多。例如,他們的商品、食品和飲料的人均消費量都有了顯著的提升。舉一個瘋狂的數據,千年隼號景點自從在兩個地方開放以來已經接待了超過 170 萬人,所以 - 遊客體驗、遊客滿意度非常非常高,而且遊樂設施或景點的可用性高達 90 多%。這基本上意味著一個非常非常複雜的技術景點運作得非常好。

  • The first part of your question regarding Disney+, the -- we're certain the apps will be made available in most traditional apps-selling stores or platforms. I don't have a comment on the access to -- on access to consumer data if the MVPDs are distributing it or selling it. We do have access to some data, obviously, following both the law on some of the other platforms, including Verizon, as for instance. But I just don't have the answer to the question if it's sold on -- by an MVPD. As you know, we did announce today a deal with Amazon, and they are added to a long list of other distributors, including Apple and Samsung and Google and Microsoft and LG and others.

    關於 Disney+ 的問題的第一部分,我們確信這些應用程式將在大多數傳統的應用程式銷售商店或平台上提供。如果 MVPD 分發或出售消費者數據,我對存取消費者數據不予置評。顯然,我們確實可以存取一些數據,這要遵守包括 Verizon 在內的其他一些平台的法律。但我只是不知道它是否會被 MVPD 出售。如你們所知,我們今天確實宣布了與亞馬遜達成的協議,並且他們還加入了其他分銷商的名單,其中包括蘋果、三星、谷歌、微軟、LG 等。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Our next question comes from John Hodulik with UBS.

    我們的下一個問題來自瑞銀的 John Hodulik。

  • John Christopher Hodulik - MD, Sector Head of the United States Communications Group and Telco & Pay TV Analyst

    John Christopher Hodulik - MD, Sector Head of the United States Communications Group and Telco & Pay TV Analyst

  • Great. Maybe first on the Verizon deal. It looks like, Bob, you're going to have access to about 20 million households or just under 20 million households that have eligibility for -- to Disney+ for free. Anything you can tell us about the wholesale arrangement you have with Verizon? And T-Mobile, with its distribution of Netflix for free, they got about 50% penetration. Are you guys ready for that kind of scale in -- with Disney+ soon after launch? And then if I could, just one more follow-up question. You talked about putting more sports on ABC. Just any thoughts that you have on potentially bidding for maybe an extra NFL deal and putting that on the broadcast network?

    偉大的。或許首先是與 Verizon 的交易。鮑勃,看起來你將可以免費訪問大約 2000 萬個家庭,或接近 2000 萬個有資格使用 Disney+ 的家庭。您能告訴我們有關您與 Verizon 的批發協議的任何資訊嗎?T-Mobile 透過免費分發 Netflix,獲得了約 50% 的普及率。你們準備好在 Disney+ 推出後不久就實現這種規模了嗎?如果可以的話,我再問一個後續問題。您談到在 ABC 上增加更多體育節目。您是否考慮過競標一份額外的 NFL 合約並將其放到廣播網絡上?

  • Robert A. Iger - Chairman & CEO

    Robert A. Iger - Chairman & CEO

  • We're -- to your first question, we believe, and we're confident, that we're really ready for scale. That BAMTech platform has been tested under pretty interesting circumstances, including this past Saturday night, when you have hundreds of thousands of people signing up for a pay-per-view event in a very, very short, concentrated period of time. We believe that the people who are signing up for Disney+ will not sign up in as concentrated a way. Now there will be many more of them, we certainly hope. But we feel that the platform is robust enough, and that all the elements that need to be in place to manage that kind of scale, are there. The second part of your question was...

    對於您的第一個問題,我們相信,我們有信心,我們已經為擴大規模做好了充分的準備。BAMTech 平台已經在非常有趣的情況下進行了測試,包括上週六晚上,在非常短的集中時間內,有數十萬人報名參加按次付費活動。我們相信,註冊 Disney+ 的人不會以如此集中的方式註冊。現在,這樣的人將會更多,我們當然希望如此。但我們認為該平台足夠強大,並且具備管理這種規模所需的所有要素。你的問題的第二部分是...

  • John Christopher Hodulik - MD, Sector Head of the United States Communications Group and Telco & Pay TV Analyst

    John Christopher Hodulik - MD, Sector Head of the United States Communications Group and Telco & Pay TV Analyst

  • Just anything on the wholesale agreement.

    批發協議上的任何內容。

  • Robert A. Iger - Chairman & CEO

    Robert A. Iger - Chairman & CEO

  • ABC Sports -- yes. Oh, the wholesale agreement, we're not prepared to give you any more information about that. But I can say that the deal is positive for us from an economic perspective. Because it's just not being given away. In other words, we're not just giving it away. We're getting paid a certain amount for it. But I won't get into specifics regarding that.

    ABC 體育——是的。哦,批發協議,我們還沒有準備好向您提供更多有關該協議的資訊。但我可以說,從經濟角度來看,這筆協議對我們來說是有利的。因為它不會被贈送。換句話說,我們不會免費提供它。我們會因此得到一定金額的報酬。但我不會談論這方面的具體細節。

  • And then the last part, I think we have an interesting opportunity here to use our platforms in a variety of different ways, including with live sports. And not just take a sort of a 1 platform approach or a 2 platform, but to really look at the different ways this company can now reach consumers. And we've done that with simultaneous coverage of -- say, the NFL draft would probably be a great example of that. We have a very unique reach as a company right now in terms of these multiple platforms that, in some respects, is unrivaled. That launch of Disney+ went a long way to us reaching more customers in a different way. When you add that to ESPN and its channels, and you add that to ABC, that's an opportunity. I think you have to also look at the opportunities we have for our other programming as well. The Fox acquisition brought with it some great creative talent and some very, very successful television studios or production entities, which gives us the ability to produce more and own more of our programming. When we then take that programming and put it on ABC and our other live linear channels like Freeform FX Disney Channel, and then we move it through a system that ultimately ends up on SVOD or Hulu, or Disney+, for that matter, that's an extraordinary way to reach more consumers and to monetize our investment in this product in a much more effective way. And it does give us a competitive advantage of sorts to other companies we're competing with who don't have as many platforms or as many ways to both monetize product or reach consumers.

    最後一部分,我認為我們有一個有趣的機會來以各種不同的方式使用我們的平台,包括體育直播。並且不僅僅採取一種 1 平台方法或 2 平台方法,而是真正研究該公司現在可以接觸消費者的不同方式。我們透過同步報導實現了這一點——比如,NFL 選秀可能就是一個很好的例子。就這些多平台而言,我們公司目前擁有非常獨特的影響力,在某些方面是無與倫比的。Disney+ 的推出對我們以不同的方式接觸更多客戶起到了很大的幫助。當你將其添加到 ESPN 及其頻道,並將其添加到 ABC 時,這就是一個機會。我認為您還必須考慮我們為其他程式設計提供的機會。收購福克斯為我們帶來了一些偉大的創意人才和一些非常成功的電視工作室或製作實體,這讓我們有能力製作更多的節目並擁有更多的自主權。當我們將這些節目放到 ABC 和我們的其他直播線性頻道(如 Freeform FX Disney Channel)上時,我們再透過一個系統將其傳輸到 SVOD 或 Hulu 或 Disney+ 上,這是一種接觸更多消費者並以更有效的方式將我們對該產品的投資貨幣化的非凡方式。它確實為我們帶來了某種競爭優勢,相較於其他競爭對手,他們沒有我們這麼多的平台或這麼多的方式來將產品貨幣化或接觸消費者。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Our next question comes from Jason Bazinet with Citi.

    我們的下一個問題來自花旗銀行的 Jason Bazinet。

  • Jason B Bazinet - MD and U.S. Cable & Satellite Analyst

    Jason B Bazinet - MD and U.S. Cable & Satellite Analyst

  • I just had a question for Mr. Iger. Maybe the most common question we get from investors is how consumers are going to navigate a world with so many apps out in the marketplace. So I just wanted to run a hypothesis by you and see if it resonates with how you're thinking about the world. Do you think it's reasonable that there will be 3 or 4, for lack of a better word, broadcast apps? Meaning they're sort of broad-based in their offering. They sort of serve the masses. And then there will be dozens of, I'll call them niche apps, which are more like cable networks that sort of super serve a customer with a narrow interest. So that's my question. Do you agree with that? And if that's true, is Hulu sort of your broadcast app, and ESPN+ and Disney+ positioned as niche apps? I heard your comment about the 4 quadrants. But if you could just react to that, that would be helpful.

    我只是想問艾格先生一個問題。也許投資者最常問的問題是,市場上有如此多的應用程序,消費者該如何應對。所以我只是想向你提出一個假設,看看它是否與你對世界的看法產生共鳴。您認為有 3 或 4 個(找不到更好的詞來形容)廣播應用程式合理嗎?這意味著他們提供的服務範圍很廣泛。他們在某種程度上為大眾服務。然後還會有幾十個,我稱之為利基應用程序,它們更像是有線網絡,可以為具有狹隘興趣的客戶提供超級服務。這就是我的問題。你同意嗎?如果這是真的,那麼 Hulu 是不是您的廣播應用程序,而 ESPN+ 和 Disney+ 是否定位為小眾應用程式?我聽到了你關於四個像限的評論。但如果你能對此做出反應,那將會很有幫助。

  • Robert A. Iger - Chairman & CEO

    Robert A. Iger - Chairman & CEO

  • Well, the second part of your question, I don't think any of these are niche apps necessarily. And I think what we're trying to do as a company is not to look at the apps as entities unto themselves, but look at the apps as part of a broader production, creativity, distribution, monetization play. What I mean by that is if you look at Disney, with Disney+, you obviously have films that are monetized in 2 windows first: one, theatrical window, then what I'll call the home video window. And then they move on to this SVOD platform. And it's also -- which is also a place that's monetizing the vast library. The same thing can be said for the television programming that we're creating, although a lot of it for Disney+ will be original or exclusive to Disney+, so there's nothing to be -- although there's nothing to keep us from then putting some of it on maybe at Disney channel down the road. But we're not looking at any of these in an isolated way.

    嗯,關於你問題的第二部分,我認為這些不一定都是小眾應用程式。我認為,作為一家公司,我們試圖做的不是將應用程式視為獨立的實體,而是將應用程式視為更廣泛的生產、創造力、分銷和貨幣化活動的一部分。我的意思是,如果你看看迪士尼,透過 Disney+,你顯然會發現電影首先在兩個窗口實現盈利:一個是影院窗口,然後是我所說的家庭視頻窗口。然後他們轉向這個 SVOD 平台。而且它也是一個將龐大的圖書館貨幣化的地方。對於我們正在創作的電視節目也是如此,儘管 Disney+ 的許多節目都是原創的或 Disney+ 獨家的,所以沒有什麼可以阻止我們將來把其中的一些節目放到迪士尼頻道上。但我們不會孤立地看待這些問題。

  • I talked about Hulu, but I also talked about it in the context of ABC, of FX, and of Freeform. Interestingly enough, if you look at current viewing patterns on some of our hit shows on ABC, Grey's Anatomy, The Good Doctor would be 2 examples. They're on ABC Live. They go through that Live Plus 3, Live Plus 7 or Live Plus 8 cycle. Ultimately, they end up on Hulu. By the end of the run of a show after 1 month, often, these shows have tripled in terms of their consumption once they're made available on Hulu, and that's only a month. It could be on Hulu for years to come. So again, I think to the second part of your question, Jason. Again, we're not looking at any of them in isolated form right now.

    我談到了 Hulu,但我也在 ABC、FX 和 Freeform 的背景下談論它。有趣的是,如果你看一下 ABC 上一些熱門節目的當前收視模式,《實習醫生格蕾》和《良醫》就是兩個例子。他們正在 ABC Live 上直播。他們經歷了 Live Plus 3、Live Plus 7 或 Live Plus 8 週期。最終,他們選擇了 Hulu。通常,在節目播出 1 個月後,這些節目在 Hulu 上線後的觀看次數就會增加 3 倍,而這僅僅是一個月的時間。未來幾年它可能會繼續在 Hulu 上播出。所以,我再次思考你問題的第二部分,傑森。再說一次,我們現在不會孤立地看待其中任何一個。

  • As it relates to your first question, which I guess is consumer choice, consumer confusion. I think a lot about it as it relates to the website consumption patterns and even the current app patterns where no 2 people use the same websites or the same set of apps. The popular -- yet there's obviously a lot of overlap with the most popular ones. And then there's a lot of fragmentation I think you're going to see that in these sort of, I'll call it, video-centric or program-centric apps, where there are going to be haves and lesser-haves. There are going to be a lot of them available, and they'll have varying levels of consumption. And the viewer or the consumer will be able to navigate basically relatively easily because they're easily -- easy to find.

    與您的第一個問題相關,我猜是消費者的選擇,消費者的困惑。我對此進行了很多思考,因為它與網站消費模式甚至當前的應用模式有關,其中沒有兩個人使用相同的網站或同一組應用程式。流行的——但顯然與最受歡迎的有很多重疊。然後,我認為你會看到,在這些我稱之為以視頻為中心或以程序為中心的應用中,存在著許多碎片化現象,其中既有富者,也有貧者。將會有大量可用的資源,並且它們的消費水平也各不相同。觀眾或消費者基本上能夠相對輕鬆地進行導航,因為它們很容易找到。

  • Hopefully, they'll be easy to buy or use. And they'll be easy, essentially, to place on mobile devices and on desktops. And I actually think that if you're thinking about just these TV and movie apps, or however you want to describe them, there are probably going to be fewer of them than there are apps for games and apps for -- everything else that you can currently use. So I don't -- it's not a concern. I do believe, though, that brands will matter, as we have been saying as a company for a long time. And if you're in a list of choice for sports and you have ESPN on as your name, or for other kind of products that it says Disney or the other brands, I think that immediately rises to the top of a list in terms of consumers' interest and -- because of the recognition factor and the trust they have in these brands.

    希望它們易於購買或使用。而且它們基本上可以輕鬆放置在行動裝置和桌上型電腦上。事實上,我認為,如果你只考慮這些電視和電影應用程序,或者無論你想如何描述它們,它們的數量可能會比遊戲應用程式和你目前可以使用的所有其他應用程式的數量要少。所以我並不擔心——這不是什麼問題。不過,我確實相信品牌很重要,正如我們公司長期以來所說的那樣。如果你在一份運動選擇清單中,並且你的名字中有 ESPN,或者其他類型的產品上有迪士尼或其他品牌,我認為這些產品會立即在消費者的興趣方面名列前茅——因為他們對這些品牌的認可度和信任度。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Our next question comes from Dan Salmon with BMO Capital Markets.

    我們的下一個問題來自 BMO 資本市場的 Dan Salmon。

  • Daniel Salmon - Analyst

    Daniel Salmon - Analyst

  • Great. Good afternoon, everyone. Bob, I recognize there's obviously a lot of focus on the DTC business of late. But the Media Networks business is also working through a number of major renewals. We'd love to maybe just hear a little bit of an update on your near and medium-term outlook for linear subscribers, both at the traditional sort and the VMVPDs? And then maybe just more broadly, how -- just conversations with the MVPDs are evolving as your DTC story emerges. And then just a quick one for Christine. Maybe just an update on your conversations with the agencies -- excuse me, the ratings agencies, to be clear, how they're viewing your leverage and maybe the potential to resume a buyback at some point.

    偉大的。大家下午好。鮑勃,我認識到最近人們顯然非常關注 DTC 業務。但媒體網路業務也正在進行一系列重大的革新。我們很想聽聽您對線性訂閱用戶(包括傳統類型和 VMVPD)的近期和中期展望的最新情況?然後也許更廣泛地說,隨著您的 DTC 故事的出現,與 MVPD 的對話正在不斷發展。接下來我再向 Christine 簡單問一句。也許只是更新您與評級機構的對話——不好意思,是評級機構,要清楚,他們如何看待您的槓桿率,以及可能在某個時候恢復回購的可能性。

  • Robert A. Iger - Chairman & CEO

    Robert A. Iger - Chairman & CEO

  • Dan, before I answer your question, I just want to clarify 2 things: My number on the number of people carries -- or who have been carried on the Millennium Falcon attraction was way low. Usually, I pride myself on being right with statistics. It's 5 million, not 1.7 million. And secondly, we will have access to a significant amount of user data when people use our apps that have been purchased through MVPDs.

    丹,在我回答你的問題之前,我只想澄清兩件事:我統計的千年隼號載客量——或者說被載客的人數——非常低。通常,我以統計數據的正確性為榮。是500萬,而不是170萬。其次,當人們使用透過 MVPD 購買的應用程式時,我們將獲得大量用戶數據。

  • To your question about MVPD renewals, I can say that we have reached a deal in principle with AT&T, and we're in the process of papering that, which is significant in terms of our progress. We've been candid and transparent about sub-trends, as Christine mentioned, updating that. Today, there's been sort of continued erosion. It abated somewhat last year. It's grown a bit now. We can't predict where that goes. We just feel that as a company, the MVPD platform is still very important to us and very valuable to us, and I think quite viable as well. I happen to believe long-term, that people will be interested in lesser channel -- less channels. It doesn't mean that they don't subscribe at all to multichannel services, but I think the trend will be in the direction of fewer channels rather than as many or certainly more. And that's where the app business could benefit because I think people will buy into the app side of it and maintain some channel relationship. But I don't know what the floor is, nor do I think the floor is anything close to being in sight. But we're looking, again, holistically across all of our businesses and the platforms with an eye toward the broadest form of monetization and consumption.

    對於您關於 MVPD 續約的問題,我可以說,我們已經與 AT&T 達成了原則性協議,並且我們正在進行文件化,這對於我們的進展而言具有重要意義。正如克里斯汀所提到的,我們對子趨勢一直保持坦誠和透明的態度,並不斷更新。如今,侵蝕現象仍在持續。去年這種情況有減弱。現在它長大了一點。我們無法預測事情會如何發展。我們只是覺得,作為一家公司,MVPD平台對我們來說仍然非常重要,非常有價值,而且我認為它也相當可行。我確信,從長遠來看,人們會對較少的管道——較少的管道感興趣。這並不意味著他們根本不訂閱多頻道服務,但我認為趨勢是朝著頻道數量減少的方向發展,而不是頻道數量增加或更多。這就是應用程式業務可以從中受益的地方,因為我認為人們會購買應用程式並維持某種管道關係。但我不知道底線是多少,也不認為底線已經出現在眼前。但我們再次全面審視我們所有的業務和平台,並著眼於最廣泛的貨幣化和消費形式。

  • Christine Mary McCarthy - Senior EVP & CFO

    Christine Mary McCarthy - Senior EVP & CFO

  • So Dan, on the rating agencies, we do have an active dialogue with the agencies. It's a combination of me, the IR team and our treasury team, and we keep them very up-to-date on our plans as well as our performance. We have a schedule. We go in and see them a couple of times a year. We're planning on that shortly. We'll go back in and see them. But we -- I think people saw that we had a significant bond offering in August, a $7 billion bond offering. The ratings were affirmed at that time across all 3 agencies as mid-single A. And if you look at our leverage at the end of this quarter, you can calculate it, it comes in around 2 7 on a gross and about a 0.3 turn less on a net basis. And although the agencies make some adjustments to those calculations, suffice it to say that even when they calculate using their adjustments, the agencies are still well below 3x.

    丹,關於評級機構,我們確實與這些機構進行了積極的對話。它是由我、投資者關係團隊和財務團隊組成的,我們會讓他們隨時了解我們的計劃和表現。我們有時間表。我們每年都會去探望他們幾次。我們很快就計劃這麼做。我們會回去探望他們。但是我們——我想人們已經看到我們在 8 月發行了一筆規模很大的債券,價值 70 億美元。當時,所有 3 家評級機構均確認該評級為中單 A。如果您看一下本季末的槓桿率,您可以計算出來,總額約為 2.7,淨額約為 0.3 左右。儘管各機構對這些計算做出了一些調整,但可以說,即使他們使用調整後的數值進行計算,各機構的預測仍遠低於 3 倍。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Our final question comes from Steven Cahall with Wells Fargo.

    我們的最後一個問題來自富國銀行的史蒂文·卡霍爾。

  • Steven Lee Cahall - Research Analyst

    Steven Lee Cahall - Research Analyst

  • I was wondering, first off, just how you think about the right amount of content spending for Hulu, maybe cash basis of both total and originals. And do you think you'll need to do things like lock up some of the FX show runners like some of your peers have done? And then maybe just, Christine, one on the park side of things. How do you get comfortable that you're not seeing any underlying weakening demand, and it's all just deferrals? And since you think that is the case, is there a point in the year where you think that you might start to see some acceleration in the attendance at the domestic parks?

    首先,我想知道,您如何看待 Hulu 的適當內容支出金額,也許是按總額和原創內容的現金基礎計算。您是否認為您需要像您的一些同行那樣採取一些措施,例如將一些 FX 節目主持人關起來?然後也許只是,克莉絲汀,在公園那邊。您如何確信沒有看到任何潛在的需求減弱,而只是延期?既然您認為情況確實如此,那麼您認為今年的某個時候國內公園的遊客人數是否會開始加速增長?

  • Robert A. Iger - Chairman & CEO

    Robert A. Iger - Chairman & CEO

  • Steven, we're facing what is obviously an extraordinarily competitive marketplace for talent in television and in films. That's not just creative and/or producing and writing and directing talent, but acting talent as well. It's a good time to be on that side of the business. We're making deals selectively based on both the talent of the people involved, but also the cost. We're trying to be mindful of the need, both to fuel our platforms with enough high-quality talent, while at the same time, managing the bottom line. We're not changing our guidance in terms of when we believe that these DTC businesses will achieve profitability, and that's based on what we think is a reasonable amount of original content that will be made for these platforms, at a cost, at least in today's world, that we think is deliverable.

    史蒂文,我們面臨的電視和電影人才市場競爭顯然異常激烈。這不僅涉及創作、製作、寫作和導演的天賦,還涉及表演天賦。現在是從事這項業務的好時機。我們選擇性地進行交易,不僅基於參與人員的才能,也基於成本。我們努力留意這項需求,既要為我們的平台注入足夠的高素質人才,同時又要管理好底線。我們不會改變這些 DTC 業務何時實現盈利的指導方針,這是基於我們認為為這些平台製作的原創內容的合理數量,以及我們認為至少在當今世界可以實現的成本。

  • Christine Mary McCarthy - Senior EVP & CFO

    Christine Mary McCarthy - Senior EVP & CFO

  • Steve, on domestic parks, we still feel very good about the demand for our domestic park product. We do a lot of research in our parks business. Guest satisfaction is something that we track; when people come and their intent to return. And also, we have metrics that look out year-over-year, what the booking trends are. And as I mentioned in my prepared comments, our booked rates, our domestic hotels are currently pacing up 5% versus prior year. So given everything that we've talked about previously, especially as it relates to Star Wars: Galaxy's Edge and the complete opening of that land in both World and Disneyland, we feel really good about the momentum we have going into '19 domestic parks.

    史蒂夫,就國內公園而言,我們仍然對國內公園產品的需求感到非常樂觀。我們對公園業務做了大量研究。我們追蹤客人的滿意度,了解人們何時到來以及他們是否打算再次光臨。此外,我們還有指標來觀察逐年變化的預訂趨勢。正如我在準備好的評論中提到的那樣,我們的國內酒店預訂率目前比去年同期上漲了 5%。因此,考慮到我們之前討論過的一切,特別是與「星際大戰:銀河邊緣」以及世界和迪士尼樂園中該土地的全面開放有關的內容,我們對進入 2019 年國內公園的勢頭感到非常高興。

  • Lowell Singer - SVP of IR

    Lowell Singer - SVP of IR

  • Okay. Thanks, Steven. Thanks again, everyone, for joining us today. Please note that a reconciliation of non-GAAP measures that were referred to on this call to equivalent GAAP measures can be found on our Investor Relations website.

    好的。謝謝,史蒂文。再次感謝大家今天的參與。請注意,您可以在我們的投資者關係網站上找到本次電話會議中提到的非 GAAP 指標與等效 GAAP 指標的對帳表。

  • In our remarks, we provided estimates of the performance of certain 21CF businesses in periods of the prior year. These estimates are based on an analysis of 21CF records, but are nonetheless unaudited estimates and are not precise measures of historical results before the acquisition. Let me also remind you that certain statements on this call, including financial statements may constitute forward-looking statements under the securities laws. We make these statements on the basis of our views and assumptions regarding future events and business performance at the time we make them, and we do not undertake any obligation to update these statements. Forward-looking statements are subject to a number of risks and uncertainties, and actual results may differ materially from the results expressed or implied in light of a variety of factors, including factors contained in our annual report on Form 10-K, quarterly reports on Form 10-Q and in our other filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission. This concludes today's call. Have a good evening, everyone.

    在我們的評論中,我們提供了對上一年某些時期 21CF 業務表現的估計。這些估計是基於對 21CF 記錄的分析,但仍然是未經審計的估計,並且不是收購前歷史結果的精確衡量標準。我還要提醒您,本次電話會議中的某些聲明,包括財務報表,可能構成證券法規定的前瞻性聲明。我們根據當時對未來事件和業務表現的看法和假設做出這些聲明,我們不承擔任何更新這些聲明的義務。前瞻性陳述受多種風險和不確定性的影響,實際結果可能與根據各種因素表達或暗示的結果存在重大差異,包括我們 10-K 表年度報告、10-Q 表季度報告以及我們向美國證券交易委員會提交的其他文件中包含的因素。今天的電話會議到此結束。祝大家晚上愉快。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Ladies and gentlemen, this concludes today's conference call. Thank you for participating. You may now disconnect.

    女士們、先生們,今天的電話會議到此結束。感謝您的參與。您現在可以斷開連線。