Diversified Healthcare Trust (DHC) 2023 Q4 法說會逐字稿

完整原文

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  • Operator

    Operator

  • Good morning, and welcome to the Diversified Healthcare Trust Q4 2023 earnings conference call. (Operator Instructions) Please note this event is being recorded. I would now like to turn the call over to Melissa McCarthy, Manager of Investor Relations. Please go ahead.

    早上好,歡迎參加多元化醫療信託 2023 年第四季財報電話會議。(操作員說明)請注意此事件正在被記錄。我現在想將電話轉給投資者關係經理梅麗莎·麥卡錫 (Melissa McCarthy)。請繼續。

  • Melissa McCarthy - IR Manager

    Melissa McCarthy - IR Manager

  • Thank you, and good morning. Welcome to the fourth-quarter 2023 conference call for Diversified Healthcare Trust. Joining me on today's call are Chris Bilotto, President and Chief Executive Officer; and Matt Brown, Chief Financial Officer and Treasurer.

    謝謝你,早安。歡迎參加多元化醫療信託 2023 年第四季電話會議。與我一起參加今天電話會議的還有總裁兼執行長 Chris Bilotto;財務長兼財務主管馬特布朗 (Matt Brown)。

  • Today's call includes a presentation by management, followed by a question-and-answer session with sell-side analysts. I would like to note that the recording and retransmission of today's conference call are strictly prohibited without the prior written consent of the company.

    今天的電話會議包括管理層的演講,隨後是與賣方分析師的問答環節。我想指出的是,未經公司事先書面同意,嚴禁對今天的電話會議進行錄音和轉播。

  • Today's conference call contains forward-looking statements within the meaning of the Private Security Litigation Reform Act of 1995 and other securities laws. These forward-looking statements are based upon DHRs. The company receives the lease and expectations as of today, Tuesday, February 27, 2024.

    今天的電話會議包含 1995 年《私人安全訴訟改革法案》和其他證券法含義內的前瞻性陳述。這些前瞻性陳述是基於 DHR。截至今天,即 2024 年 2 月 27 日星期二,公司收到了租約和預期。

  • The company undertakes no obligation to revise or publicly release the results of any revision to the forward-looking statements made in today's conference call, other than through filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission, or SEC. In addition, this call may contain non-GAAP numbers, including normalized funds from operations or normalized FFO, net operating income, or NOI, and cash-basis net operating income, or cash-basis NOI. Reconciliations of net income or loss to these non-GAAP figures are available in our financial results package, which can be found on our website at www.dhcreit.com.

    除了透過向美國證券交易委員會(SEC)提交文件之外,該公司沒有義務修改或公開發布今天電話會議中前瞻性陳述的任何修改結果。此外,此電話會議可能包含非 GAAP 數據,包括標準化營運資金或標準化 FFO、淨營業收入或 NOI,以及現金基礎淨營業收入或現金基礎 NOI。我們的財務績效資料包中提供了這些非公認會計準則資料的淨收入或虧損的調節表,您可以在我們的網站 www.dhcreit.com 上找到該資料。

  • Actual results may differ materially from those projected in any forward-looking statement. Additional information concerning factors that could cause those differences, is contained in our filings with the SEC. Investors are cautioned not to place undue reliance upon any forward-looking statements.

    實際結果可能與任何前瞻性聲明中預測的結果有重大差異。有關可能導致這些差異的因素的更多資​​訊包含在我們向 SEC 提交的文件中。投資者應注意不要過度依賴任何前瞻性陳述。

  • And finally, we will be providing guidance on this call, including shop cash-basis net operating income, or SHOP cash-basis NOI. We are not providing a reconciliation of these non-GAAP measures as part of our guidance, because certain information required for such reconciliation is not available, without unreasonable efforts or at all, such as gains or losses or impairment charges related to the disposition of real estate.

    最後,我們將為本次電話會議提供指導,包括商店現金基礎淨營業收入,或商店現金基礎 NOI。作為我們指導的一部分,我們不會提供這些非公認會計原則措施的調節,因為如果沒有不合理的努力,則無法獲得此類調節所需的某些信息,例如與處置實際資產相關的收益或損失或減損費用。財產。

  • Now, I would like to turn the call over to Chris.

    現在,我想把電話轉給克里斯。

  • Christopher Bilotto - President, Chief Executive Officer

    Christopher Bilotto - President, Chief Executive Officer

  • Thank you, Melissa. Good morning, everyone, and thank you for joining our call.

    謝謝你,梅麗莎。大家早安,感謝您加入我們的通話。

  • Last evening, DHC reported fourth quarter and year-end results, along with our January SHOP performance updates that reflect operating and financial improvements across our portfolio. On today's call, I will begin by providing you with an update on the quarter's operational performance and recent events, and then discuss DHC's strategic initiatives as we look toward 2024 and beyond. Later, Matt will discuss the financial results and balance sheet in greater detail and provide full-year guidance and targets for our SHOP segment.

    昨晚,DHC 報告了第四季度和年終業績,以及我們 1 月份 SHOP 業績更新,反映了我們整個投資組合的營運和財務改善。在今天的電話會議上,我將首先向您介紹本季度的營運業績和最近發生的事件的最新情況,然後討論 DHC 展望 2024 年及以後的戰略舉措。隨後,馬特將更詳細地討論財務業績和資產負債表,並為我們的商店部門提供全年指導和目標。

  • 2023 was a pivotal year for DHC, as we made significant progress with operational performance across our sectors, contributing to a full-year 2023 increase to normalized FFO by 207% to $41.1 million. Throughout the year, we refreshed or underwent full renovations at nearly 65 of our SHOP communities, serving as a stepping stone for occupancy and NOI growth and contributing to our 2023 cash basis NOI increase to $236.2 million, or 43% over the prior year.

    2023 年對 DHC 來說是關鍵的一年,我們在各部門的營運績效方面取得了重大進展,推動 2023 年全年標準化 FFO 成長 207%,達到 4,110 萬美元。在這一年中,我們對近65 個SHOP 社區進行了翻新或全面翻修,作為入住率和NOI 增長的墊腳石,並促使我們2023 年以現金為基礎的NOI 增長至2.362 億美元,比上一年增長43%。

  • In December, we took a meaningful step to support our growth with the issuance of $940.5 million zero-coupon senior secured notes, using the proceeds to repay in full all $700 million of the outstanding debt maturing in 2024 and simultaneously regaining debt to covenant compliance. On February 16, we executed our purchase right and acquired approximately 34% of the currently outstanding Alaris common share at the predetermined tender offer price for a total purchase price of $14.9 million. Alaris Life is our largest operator, managing 119 communities across our SHOP segment.

    12 月,我們採取了有意義的步驟來支持我們的成長,發行了9.405 億美元的零息優先擔保票據,利用所得收益全額償還2024 年到期的全部7 億美元未償債務,同時恢復債務以遵守契約。2 月 16 日,我們執行了購買權,以預定的要約收購價收購了目前已發行 Alaris 普通股的約 34%,總購買價為 1,490 萬美元。Alaris Life 是我們最大的營運商,管理我們商店部門的 119 個社區。

  • During 2023, we sold eight non-core properties located in markets where we believe there is minimal NOI growth potential or with properties that require excessive capital investment. Currently, we are marketing for sale an additional nine non-core properties, mostly within our office portfolio, with estimated sales proceeds of $60 million to $70 million. However, we are in the early innings with respect to the demand outlook from buyers and overall execution of these sales.

    2023 年,我們出售了八個非核心物業,這些物業位於我們認為 NOI 成長潛力極小的市場或需要過多資本投資的物業。目前,我們正在行銷另外 9 個非核心物業,其中大部分位於我們的辦公大樓投資組合內,預計銷售收入為 6,000 萬至 7,000 萬美元。然而,就買家的需求前景和這些銷售的整體執行而言,我們還處於早期階段。

  • Turning to our SHOP performance. For the quarter, revenue increased from the prior year by more than $26 million and sequentially by $1.2 million, primarily driven by occupancy gains and corresponding rate increases. Notably, NOI increased $8.1 million from the prior year, resulting in NOI margin increase of 250 basis points. NOI and NOI margin were down sequentially due to increased labor, food, utility, and insurance expenses.

    轉向我們的 SHOP 表演。本季營收較上年增加超過 2,600 萬美元,較上一季增加 120 萬美元,這主要是由入住率成長和相應費率上漲所推動的。值得注意的是,NOI 比前一年增加了 810 萬美元,導致 NOI 利潤率增加了 250 個基點。由於勞動力、食品、公用事業和保險費用增加,NOI 和 NOI 利潤率連續下降。

  • Across our SHOP segment, we ended the fourth quarter with occupancy of 79.3%, an increase of 300 basis points, and an average monthly rate increase of 5.5% year over year. Fundamental support in the senior living industry remained strong entering 2024, driven by continual growth within the 80-plus population, a decrease in new supply, and moderating wage and labor costs.

    在我們的商店部門,第四季末的入住率為 79.3%,成長了 300 個基點,月均成長率年增 5.5%。進入2024年,在80歲以上人口持續成長、新增供應減少以及薪資和勞動成本下降的推動下,養老產業的基本面支撐依然強勁。

  • We maintained an active asset management role with our operators, principally focused on deployment of strategic ROI capital, providing data and analytics to support revenue growth and cost efficiency opportunities, along with routine portfolio-wide evaluation of market trends and optimization opportunities across segments and acuity levels. These focus areas, along with those initiated from our operators, have contributed to our organic growth and have also helped identify additional opportunities, including the following.

    我們與營運商保持積極的資產管理角色,主要專注於策略性投資回報率資本的部署,提供數據和分析以支援收入成長和成本效率機會,以及對市場趨勢和跨細分市場和敏銳度的最佳化機會進行例行的全投資組合評估水準。這些重點領域以及我們營運商發起的重點領域,為我們的有機成長做出了貢獻,也幫助我們發現了其他機會,包括以下機會。

  • First, Alaris Life transitioned to annual rental rate increases effective each January, and for 2024, included a rate increase at the majority of their communities, ranging from 5% to 10%, depending on communities and the markets where they reside. On average, this includes a 7% rate increase, and while early in the year, our January 2024 SHOP results point to improved NOI and margin expansion, in part from these changes.

    首先,Alaris Life 轉變為每年 1 月生效的年租金上調,到 2024 年,大多數社區的租金上調幅度為 5% 到 10%,具體取決於他們居住的社區和市場。平均而言,這包括 7% 的利率上漲,而在今年年初,我們 2024 年 1 月的 SHOP 結果表明 NOI 有所改善,利潤率也有所擴大,部分原因是這些變化。

  • Second, in December, we gave notice of termination to one of our operating partners, following a comprehensive review of a portfolio of 13 non-performing communities with locations in Wisconsin and Illinois.

    其次,在對位於威斯康辛州和伊利諾伊州的 13 個不良社區進行全面審查後,我們於 12 月向我們的一個營運合作夥伴發出了終止通知。

  • At year end 2023, these collective communities contributed negative EBITDA of $3.2 million and occupancy of 69%. We expect to transition these communities during the first half of 2024, with operations to be assumed by another of our third-party operators, Charter Senior Living. Charter has demonstrated an increase in the number of non-performing communities in the past year, and has demonstrated significant success, turning around 17 DHC communities currently under their management.

    截至 2023 年底,這些集體社區的 EBITDA 為負 320 萬美元,入住率為 69%。我們預計在 2024 年上半年對這些社區進行轉型,營運工作將由我們的另一家第三方營運商 Charter Senior Living 承擔。Charter 證明,過去一年中表現不佳的社區數量有所增加,並取得了巨大成功,扭轉了目前由其管理的 17 個 DHC 社區的局面。

  • Since its onboarding in 2021, Charter has increased occupancy from 76% at the time of transition to 87%, and increased NOI from $1.3 million to $5.9 million in Q4 2023. We expect there will be minimal disruption during the transition period, and anticipate this will lead to meaningful improved operating and financial performance toward the back half of the year. Capital deployment continues to be a priority across our communities to ensure we are offering a best-in-class experience for current and future residents.

    自 2021 年成立以來,Charter 的入住率從過渡時的 76% 增加到 87%,NOI 從 130 萬美元增加到 2023 年第四季的 590 萬美元。我們預計過渡期間的干擾將降至最低,並預計這將導致今年下半年的營運和財務表現顯著改善。資本部署仍然是我們社區的首要任務,以確保我們為當前和未來的居民提供一流的體驗。

  • Further, the current slowdown with new construction deliverables and select markets creates an environment that is ripe for organic growth and stability. During 2023, we invested $183 million of maintenance and value-enhancing capital across our SHOP communities, which included cosmetic or full renovations at nearly 65 communities. These investments, coupled with operational improvements at the communities, serve as a platform to drive performance.

    此外,當前新建築交付和特定市場的放緩創造了有機成長和穩定的成熟環境。2023 年,我們在 SHOP 社群投資了 1.83 億美元的維護和增值資本,其中包括對近 65 個社區進行美容或全面翻新。這些投資加上社區運作的改進,成為推動績效的平台。

  • We expect to continue with improvements across our communities into 2024, with roughly 25 refreshed projects currently underway, specifically targeted in communities where we expect improvements to enable higher rents and occupancy. Across our shop segment, in 2024, we are forecasting the end of the year with occupancy growth of 300 to 400 basis points, [revpar] growth of 10% to 12%, along with NOI improvements, which Matt will speak to in more detail.

    我們預計到 2024 年將繼續對整個社區進行改善,目前正在進行約 25 個更新項目,特別針對我們希望改善以提高租金和入住率的社區。在我們的商店領域,我們預計到 2024 年年底,入住率將增長 300 至 400 個基點,[revpar] 將成長 10% 至 12%,NOI 也會有所改善,Matt 將對此進行更詳細的討論。

  • Turning to our office portfolio, we ended the quarter with 102 medical offices (technical difficulty) with a medical office tenant occupying 59,000 square feet for three years with the rental rate increase of 29%.

    談到我們的辦公室組合,截至本季末,我們擁有 102 個醫療辦公室(技術難度),其中醫療辦公室租戶佔用 59,000 平方英尺,為期三年,租金上漲 29%。

  • For the full year 2023, we executed 886,000 square feet of leasing activity with an average rent roll of 11.1% and overall improvement over the prior year. When looking at DHC's upcoming lease expirations in 2024, we have 7.1% of our annualized revenue expiring, of which close to 4.5% are known vacates, primarily driven by three properties occupied by single tenants and located in St. Louis, Missouri; Durham, North Carolina; and Phoenix, Arizona.

    2023 年全年,我們執行了 886,000 平方英尺的租賃活動,平均租金上漲 11.1%,整體較前一年有所改善。當考慮DHC 即將在2024 年到期的租約時,我們有7.1% 的年化收入即將到期,其中近4.5% 是已知的空出,這主要是由位於密蘇裡州聖路易斯的三處由單一租戶佔用的房產推動的;北卡羅來納州達勒姆;和亞利桑那州鳳凰城。

  • We are actively marketing these properties for lease while also evaluating strategic alternatives, including potential repositioning and dispositions.

    我們正在積極行銷這些出租物業,同時也在評估策略替代方案,包括潛在的重新定位和處置。

  • Despite some of these known vacates, we are off to an active start this year, having signed 65,000 square feet of new and renewal leases, reflecting a 14% increase in rents. Our pipeline remains healthy, with approximately 650,000 square feet of total leasing activity and includes close to 390,000 square feet of potential absorption.

    儘管存在一些已知的騰出情況,但我們今年仍取得了積極的開局,簽署了 65,000 平方英尺的新租約和續租租約,租金上漲了 14%。我們的管道保持健康,租賃活動總量約為 650,000 平方英尺,其中潛在吸收面積接近 390,000 平方英尺。

  • Looking ahead, we remain optimistic about the outlook for our shop segment in 2024 and beyond. We are encouraged by the performance trends and remain steadfast in our work. We are committed to identifying and pursuing capital investment opportunities to support sustainable performance improvement.

    展望未來,我們對 2024 年及以後商店業務的前景保持樂觀。我們對業績趨勢感到鼓舞,並堅定不移地工作。我們致力於識別和尋求資本投資機會,以支持可持續的績效改進。

  • As we consider future capital needs, we maintain our outlook to identify and sell non-core assets and are currently in the process of evaluating financing options for select properties across our portfolio, along with agency financing, giving our unencumbered senior housing portfolio.

    在考慮未來的資本需求時,我們維持識別和出售非核心資產的前景,目前正在評估我們投資組合中精選房產的融資方案以及機構融資,從而為我們提供無負擔的高級住房投資組合。

  • I will now turn the call over to Matt to review our financial results. Matt?

    我現在將把電話轉給馬特,以審查我們的財務表現。馬特?

  • Matthew Brown - Chief Financial Officer, Treasurer

    Matthew Brown - Chief Financial Officer, Treasurer

  • Thanks, Chris, and good morning, everyone.

    謝謝克里斯,大家早安。

  • Before covering the results for the quarter, I wanted to highlight the bond offering we completed in December. We issued $940 million of zero-coupon secured notes due in January 2026 with a one-year extension option. Net proceeds from this transaction were approximately $730 million and were used to repay and terminate our $450 million secured credit facility and redeem $250 million of senior notes that were scheduled to mature in May.

    在介紹本季業績之前,我想先強調一下我們在 12 月完成的債券發行。我們發行了 9.4 億美元的零息擔保票據,將於 2026 年 1 月到期,並具有一年的延期選擇權。此交易的淨收益約為 7.3 億美元,用於償還和終止我們的 4.5 億美元擔保信貸額度,並贖回計劃於 5 月到期的 2.5 億美元優先票據。

  • The bonds are secured by 95 properties. Including medical office, life science, and triple net lease, senior living communities, and wellness centers. We have provided additional aggregate information on this portfolio of properties in our quarterly earnings presentation.

    這些債券由 95 處房產作為擔保。包括醫療辦公室、生命科學、三重淨租賃、老年生活社區和健康中心。我們在季度收益報告中提供了有關該物業組合的更多匯總資訊。

  • As a result of the transaction, we have no debt maturing until June 2025 and have regained compliance with our debt covenants, which allows us to issue and or refinance debt, something we have not been able to do since May 2021. As a result of these financing activities, we have concluded that we no longer have substantial doubt about our ability to continue as a going concern.

    在此次交易後,我們在2025 年6 月之前沒有到期債務,並且重新遵守了我們的債務契約,這使我們能夠發行債務和/或再融資,這是我們自2021 年5 月以來一直無法做到的事情。由於這些融資活動,我們得出的結論是,我們不再對我們持續經營的能力產生重大懷疑。

  • Now turning to the results for the quarter. Normalized FFO for the fourth quarter was $8.1 million, or $0.03 per share, and included $2.7 million, or $0.01 per share, of non-cash amortization of the discount associated with the zero-coupon secured bond.

    現在轉向本季的業績。第四季標準化 FFO 為 810 萬美元,即每股 0.03 美元,其中包括與零息擔保債券相關的折扣的非現金攤銷 270 萬美元,即每股 0.01 美元。

  • On a run rate basis, this non-cash amortization is expected to total $20.7 million, or $0.09 for the first quarter, an $86.8 million, or $0.36 per share, for the full year of 2024. Our consolidated same-property cash basis NOI was $56.3 million, representing an $11.9 million, or 26.8% year-over-year improvement.

    以運行率計算,預計 2024 年全年非現金攤銷總額為 2,070 萬美元,即第一季 0.09 美元,即 8,680 萬美元,即每股 0.36 美元。我們的綜合同物業現金基礎 NOI 為 5,630 萬美元,年增 1,190 萬美元,即 26.8%。

  • The changes by segment are as follows. Office same-property cash basis NOI was $29.5 million, representing a year-over-year improvement of $1.0 million or 3.5%, mainly driven by free rent burning off. On a sequential quarter basis, cash basis NOI improved $645,000, or 2.2%, mainly driven by reductions in utilities that were higher in Q3 due to seasonal cooling. Office same-property cash basis NOI was $16.3 million, representing another significant year-over-year increase of more than $10 million.

    按分部劃分的變動情況如下。辦公室同物業現金基礎 NOI 為 2,950 萬美元,年增 100 萬美元,即 3.5%,主要是由於免費租金消耗所致。按季度計算,現金基礎 NOI 提高了 645,000 美元,即 2.2%,這主要是由於第三季度因季節性降溫而導致公用事業費用減少所致。辦公室同物業現金基礎 NOI 為 1,630 萬美元,年比再次大幅成長超過 1,000 萬美元。

  • On the revenue side, increases in occupancy and average monthly rate were the main drivers. These revenue increases were partially offset by expense increases, most notably wages and benefits of $8 million and insurance increases. While we saw an increase in wages and benefits, it is important to note that contract labor decreased $8.7 million over the prior year period.

    在收入方面,入住率和平均月費率的成長是主要驅動力。這些收入的成長被費用的成長部分抵消,其中最明顯的是 800 萬美元的薪資和福利以及保險的成長。雖然我們看到薪資和福利有所增加,但值得注意的是,合約工比去年同期減少了 870 萬美元。

  • Turning to liquidity, financing strategies, and CapEx. We ended the quarter with $246 million in cash. Our portfolio is comprised of 371 properties with a gross book value of $7.2 billion. With a significant amount of unencumbered assets, including all properties in our SHOP segment, our financing focus in 2024 is as follows.

    轉向流動性、融資策略和資本支出。本季結束時,我們擁有 2.46 億美元現金。我們的投資組合由 371 處房產組成,帳面總價值為 72 億美元。憑藉大量未支配資產,包括我們的 SHOP 部門的所有房產,我們 2024 年的融資重點如下。

  • Issuing CMBS debt secured by certain of our unencumbered medical office and life science properties would target proceeds to exceed $150 million, which would be used to enhance liquidity. Issuing agency debt with certain of our unencumbered shop properties with the use of proceeds being used to repay our $500 million of 9.75% on secured notes, which become prepayable without penalty in June of this year. Based on the makeup of our portfolio, we have more than enough stabilized communities to achieve this financing strategy.

    發行由我們的某些未支配醫療辦公室和生命科學資產擔保的 CMBS 債務的目標收益將超過 1.5 億美元,這將用於增強流動性。用我們的某些未抵押商店財產發行代理債務,所得收益用於償還我們 5 億美元的 9.75% 擔保票據,這些票據將於今年 6 月無需罰款地提前償還。根據我們投資組合的組成,我們擁有足夠的穩定社區來實現這項融資策略。

  • In the fourth quarter, we invested $79 million in our properties, including $19 million in our office segment and $56 million in our shop segment. For the full year of 2023, we invested $253 million in our properties, in line with the CapEx guidance provided on our Q3 earnings call, including $60 million in our office segment and $183 million in our SHOP segment.

    第四季度,我們在物業上投資了 7,900 萬美元,其中辦公部門投資 1,900 萬美元,商店部門投資 5,600 萬美元。根據第三季財報電話會議上提供的資本支出指引,2023 年全年,我們在物業上投資了 2.53 億美元,其中辦公部門投資 6,000 萬美元,商店部門投資 1.83 億美元。

  • As we have stated, continued investment in our senior living communities is an important component to support the NOI recovery. As part of our 2024 business plan, we have rationalized certain CapEx spend to ensure we are generating appropriate returns on our investment.

    正如我們所說,對老年生活社區的持續投資是支持 NOI 復甦的重要組成部分。作為我們 2024 年業務計劃的一部分,我們合理化了某些資本支出,以確保我們的投資產生適當的回報。

  • With that said, in 2024, we expect to spend between $250 million and $270 million, including approximately $190 million to $200 million in our senior living communities. Looking forward, we expect full year 2024 SHOP NOI to range from $120 million to $140 million, with most of the growth over 2023 occurring during the second half of the year. This SHOP NOI guidance assumes occupancy increasing approximately 400 basis points, which represents the high end of our occupancy range to 83% by year end 2024.

    儘管如此,到 2024 年,我們預計將花費 2.5 億至 2.7 億美元,其中約 1.9 億至 2 億美元用於我們的老年生活社區。展望未來,我們預計 2024 年全年 SHOP NOI 將在 1.2 億美元至 1.4 億美元之間,其中 2023 年的大部分成長發生在下半年。這份 SHOP NOI 指南假設入住率增加約 400 個基點,這代表我們入住率範圍的上限,到 2024 年底將達到 83%。

  • That concludes our prepared remarks. Operator, please open the line for questions.

    我們準備好的演講到此結束。接線員,請開通提問線。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • (Operator Instructions) Bryan Maher, B. Riley.

    (操作員說明)Bryan Maher、B. Riley。

  • Bryan Maher - Analyst

    Bryan Maher - Analyst

  • Thank you, and good morning. Before I move on to my question, I just want to clarify, you said SHOP NOI for 2024, back-end loaded, but $120 million to $140 million. Is that correct?

    謝謝你,早安。在我繼續回答我的問題之前,我只想澄清一下,你說的是 2024 年的 SHOP NOI,後端加載,但 1.2 億到 1.4 億美元。那是對的嗎?

  • Matthew Brown - Chief Financial Officer, Treasurer

    Matthew Brown - Chief Financial Officer, Treasurer

  • That is correct.

    那是對的。

  • Bryan Maher - Analyst

    Bryan Maher - Analyst

  • Perfect. Thank you. Sticking with SHOP, though, on the margin side, one of the questions I get most from the buy side is really to the percentage margin, which has been kind of hanging out in that 5% to 10% range, obviously better at the Alaris Life properties than the other operators, and it was a pleasant surprise to hear that you're going to transition some of those assets.

    完美的。謝謝。不過,堅持使用 SHOP,在保證金方面,我從買方那裡得到最多的問題之一實際上是保證金百分比,該百分比一直在 5% 到 10% 的範圍內徘徊,顯然 Alaris 更好人壽財產比其他運營商要多,聽到您要轉讓其中一些資產真是令人驚訝。

  • But what's been the biggest hang-up there and I'm assuming with your $120 million to $140 million guidance that you're expecting some major alleviation on that front, but can you just walk us through what's been the hang-up and how that dissipates?

    但是那裡最大的障礙是什麼,我假設根據您 1.2 億至 1.4 億美元的指導,您預計這方面會出現一些重大緩解,但是您能否向我們介紹一下存在的障礙以及如何解決這個問題?消散?

  • Matthew Brown - Chief Financial Officer, Treasurer

    Matthew Brown - Chief Financial Officer, Treasurer

  • Sure, Brian, I can start that. So we definitely expect in 2024, margin expansion. A lot of that is going to come from the top line. As we talked about, we're expecting occupancy to grow 300 to 400 basis points in the year, we're going to continue bringing rents more in line with market as we enter new leases with residents.

    當然,布萊恩,我可以開始。因此,我們肯定預期 2024 年利潤率會擴大。其中很大一部分將來自頂層。正如我們所說,我們預計今年入住率將增加 300 至 400 個基點,隨著我們與居民簽訂新的租約,我們將繼續使租金與市場更加一致。

  • I think as an industry with inflation where it's been, the expense side has definitely been pressured. And it is a huge focus of our operators to not just grow the top line to drive that NOI growth, but to also really manage and rationalize the operating expenses at our communities.

    我認為作為一個通貨膨脹的行業,費用方面肯定受到了壓力。我們營運商的一大關注點不僅是增加收入以推動 NOI 成長,而且還要真正管理和合理化我們社區的營運費用。

  • Christopher Bilotto - President, Chief Executive Officer

    Christopher Bilotto - President, Chief Executive Officer

  • And the other thing I would add on that, Brian, is as you may be aware, you know, we're kind of at that tipping point with occupancy, kind of being close to that 80% threshold. And I think as we continue to advance occupancy upwards of kind of, we talked about the 300 to 400 basis points, we expect more to flow down to the bottom line. So certainly, we would expect incremental improvement in addition to some of the things that Matt referenced specifically attributed to occupancy.

    Brian,我要補充的另一件事是,正如您所知,我們正處於入住率的臨界點,接近 80% 的門檻。我認為,隨著我們繼續提高入住率,我們談到了 300 到 400 個基點,我們預計將有更多的資金流向利潤。因此,當然,除了馬特提到的一些特別歸因於入住率的事情之外,我們還期望逐步改善。

  • Bryan Maher - Analyst

    Bryan Maher - Analyst

  • Okay. Sticking with SHOP for a minute, can you tell us what compelled the repurchase of the Alaris Life position that you previously held?

    好的。繼續討論一下 SHOP,您能告訴我們是什麼迫使您重新購買您之前持有的 Alaris Life 職位嗎?

  • Christopher Bilotto - President, Chief Executive Officer

    Christopher Bilotto - President, Chief Executive Officer

  • Yeah. I mean, look, I think that on the onset, there was a tender offer, which everyone is aware of, with the opportunity to kind of right-size Alaris and control costs. And I think at the end, you know, being in a position with kind of a more streamlined company and being able to purchase those shares at that same tender offer price is compelling. And I think further, you know, Alaris, manages about 119 of our communities, and so I think there's aligned interests in kind of that investment.

    是的。我的意思是,我認為一開始就提出了要約收購,每個人都知道這一點,並有機會調整 Alaris 的規模並控製成本。我認為最終,你知道,處於一個更加精簡的公司的位置,並且能夠以相同的要約收購價格購買這些股票是很有吸引力的。我進一步認為,Alaris 管理著我們大約 119 個社區,因此我認為這種投資具有一致的利益。

  • Bryan Maher - Analyst

    Bryan Maher - Analyst

  • And then on the SHOP assets in general, I mean, I'm sure you're aware of Well [Tower buying Affinity]. I think it was announced maybe 10 days ago for just under $1 billion, which would equate to about $250,000 a key. I mean, clearly your assets aren't trading anywhere near that. And the upside to your share price common should you move towards that direction from $50,000, $60,000 a key to $100,000 to $150,000 is huge.

    然後關於一般的商店資產,我的意思是,我相信你知道[塔購買親和力]。我認為它是在 10 天前宣布的,價格略低於 10 億美元,相當於一把鑰匙約 25 萬美元。我的意思是,顯然你的資產交易價格遠不及這個水準。如果你從 50,000 美元、60,000 美元(關鍵是 100,000 美元到 150,000 美元)朝著這個方向發展,那麼你的股價的上漲空間是巨大的。

  • I mean, can you give us what your thoughts are related to the marketplace for SHOP assets, given the broader dynamic that you talked about, which is, you know, lower supply and more people moving into the age group of going into the communities. I mean, it seems like the demand is there. What's your view on the impact on valuations of what you own?

    我的意思是,考慮到您談到的更廣泛的動態,您能否告訴我們您對 SHOP 資產市場的看法,即供應量減少和更多的人進入進入社區的年齡層。我的意思是,需求似乎是存在的。您對您所擁有資產的估值影響有何看法?

  • Christopher Bilotto - President, Chief Executive Officer

    Christopher Bilotto - President, Chief Executive Officer

  • Yeah. I mean, I think a couple of things. I mean, we're certainly familiar with the headlines with some of these larger trades. There's different dynamics that go into those metrics, and I guess overall cap rates and valuations assigned to the different kind of product type. But I think in general, I would view this as a good kind of comp for the industry.

    是的。我的意思是,我認為有幾件事。我的意思是,我們當然熟悉其中一些較大交易的頭條新聞。這些指標有不同的動態,我猜分配給不同類型產品類型的整體資本化率和估值。但我認為總的來說,我認為這對該行業來說是一種很好的補償。

  • And I think kind of going back to your comment, when we look across our portfolio, we have a very large presence in kind of strong growing markets like Southern Florida, Atlanta, Houston, Charlotte, where a lot of our units reside. And I would say within those, these are kind of institutional quality properties where we've invested meaningful capital, and we think there's continued upside.

    我想回到你的評論,當我們審視我們的投資組合時,我們在南佛羅裡達、亞特蘭大、休士頓、夏洛特等強勁成長的市場擁有非常大的影響力,我們的許多單位都在那裡。我想說的是,在這些資產中,我們已經投入了有意義的資本,我們認為這些資產有持續的上漲空間。

  • And so when you combine kind of some of these stronger markets where we're located, which I think across our portfolio represents a substantial portion of our units, combined with the opportunity to continue growing NOI, as we alluded to on some of our prepared remarks, I think overall, seeing kind of those comps on some of those headlines, I think provides further justification about overall increased values across the sector. And so I think seeing that and seeing those comps, I think bodes well for senior living as a whole.

    因此,當你將我們所在的一些更強大的市場結合起來時,我認為在我們的投資組合中,這些市場代表了我們單位的很大一部分,再加上繼續增長NOI 的機會,正如我們在一些準備好的項目中提到的那樣我認為總體而言,在某些頭條新聞上看到這些比較,我認為這為整個行業的整體價值增加提供了進一步的理由。因此,我認為看到這一點並看到這些比較,我認為對整個老年生活來說是個好兆頭。

  • Bryan Maher - Analyst

    Bryan Maher - Analyst

  • Just real last for me, the SHOP numbers you gave for CapEx this year, $190 million to $200 million, if you're successful at getting that deployed, is that substantially it, or do you expect more to flow into 2025?

    對我來說,最後一個問題是,您今年給出的資本支出規模為1.9 億美元到2 億美元,如果您成功部署了該數字,那麼基本上就是這個數字,還是您預計2025 年會有更多資金流入?

  • Matthew Brown - Chief Financial Officer, Treasurer

    Matthew Brown - Chief Financial Officer, Treasurer

  • Brian, I think that in 2025, the numbers will probably be a little bit different. Less than 2024 for the shop portfolio. We are thinking in aggregate, CapEx in '25 is probably somewhere in the $230 million to $250 million range. So it's still a little higher than normal. But after 2025, we expect it to come down very significantly.

    Brian,我認為到 2025 年,數字可能會有所不同。商店組合不到 2024 年。我們認為,總的來說,25 年的資本支出可能在 2.3 億美元到 2.5 億美元之間。所以還是比正常水平高一點。但 2025 年之後,我們預計這一數字將大幅下降。

  • I will also say that in prior modeling that we've done, we were thinking that CapEx was going to be in excess of $300 million in each of 2024 and 2025. So we are really tightening and sharpening the pencil here with the levels that we provided on today's call. And the result of that is obviously less financing needs in 2024 that we highlighted on the call.

    我還要說的是,在我們之前所做的建模中,我們認為 2024 年和 2025 年的資本支出將超過 3 億美元。因此,我們確實按照今天電話會議中提供的水平收緊並削尖了鉛筆。其結果顯然是我們在電話會議上強調的 2024 年融資需求減少。

  • Bryan Maher - Analyst

    Bryan Maher - Analyst

  • You said $230 million to $250 million just now for 2025, but you said the word aggregate. So is that going to include MOB also?

    您剛才說的是 2025 年 2.3 億至 2.5 億美元,但您說的是「總計」這個詞。那麼這也將包括 MOB 嗎?

  • Matthew Brown - Chief Financial Officer, Treasurer

    Matthew Brown - Chief Financial Officer, Treasurer

  • Yes, that's all in. Correct.

    是的,這就是全部。正確的。

  • Bryan Maher - Analyst

    Bryan Maher - Analyst

  • Thank you. That's all for me. Appreciate it.

    謝謝。這就是我的全部。欣賞它。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • (Operator Instructions) This concludes our question-and-answer session. I would like to turn the conference back over to Chris Bilotto, President and Chief Executive Officer, for any closing remarks.

    (操作員說明)我們的問答環節到此結束。我想將會議轉回總裁兼執行長 Chris Bilotto 發表閉幕詞。

  • Christopher Bilotto - President, Chief Executive Officer

    Christopher Bilotto - President, Chief Executive Officer

  • Thank you for joining our call today, and we look forward to seeing many of you at some of the upcoming conferences. Thank you.

    感謝您今天加入我們的電話會議,我們期待在即將舉行的一些會議上見到你們。謝謝。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • The conference has now concluded. Thank you for attending today's presentation. You may now disconnect.

    會議現已結束。感謝您參加今天的演講。您現在可以斷開連線。