Douglas Emmett Inc (DEI) 2013 Q1 法說會逐字稿

Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for standing by. Welcome to Douglas Emmett's first-quarter 2013 earnings call. Today's call is being recorded. At this time all participants are in a listen-only mode. After management's prepared remarks you will receive instructions for participating in the question-and-answer session. I will now turn the conference over to McElhinney, Vice President of Investor Relations for Douglas Emmett.

Thank you. Joining us on the call today are Jordan Kaplan, our President and CEO, and Ted Guth, our CFO. This call is being webcast live from our website and will be available for replay during the next 90 days. You can also find our earnings package at the Investor Relations section of our website.

During the course of this call we will make forward-looking statements. These forward-looking statements are based on the beliefs of, assumptions made by and information currently available to us. Our actual results will be affected by known and unknown risks, trends, uncertainties and factors that are beyond our control or ability to predict.

Although we believe that our assumptions are reasonable, they are not guarantees of future performance and some will prove to be incorrect. Therefore, our actual future results can be expected to differ from our expectations and those differences may be material. For a more detailed description of some potential risks please refer to our SEC filings which can be found in the Investor Relations section of our website.

When we reach the question-and-answer portion, for the consideration of others, please limit yourself to one question and one follow-up. I will now turn the call over to Jordan Kaplan, President and CEO of Douglas Emmett. Jordan?

Thanks, Stuart, good morning, everyone, and thank you for joining us. I'm happy to report that we had a very strong and busy first quarter. On top of excellent leasing and higher rents we purchased additional interest in our funds, signed an agreement to buy a 225,000 square foot multi-tenant office building in Beverly Hills and paid down $90 million of debt. After the quarter ended we fixed the interest rate on a new five-year $325 million loan for one of our unconsolidated funds at 2.35% per annum for the next four years.

Starting with our acquisitions, we already told you last quarter that we acquired additional interest in our funds. In addition, we have agreed to (technical difficulty) to purchase an office building at 8484 Wilshire later this month. This acquisition meets all of our criteria -- great bones, in one of the best submarkets with small tenants and an opportunity to use our operating platform to add value through leasing up and repositioning the building as a stellar Class A Beverly Hills asset.

Our portfolio fundamentals continue to improve. Last quarter we achieved 30 basis points of positive absorption in our total office portfolio, overcoming the headwinds we mentioned on our last call from the move out of year-end tenant holdovers. In particular, we increased leasing in Warner Center by a robust 70 basis points on top of the 200 basis points we achieved in our strong fourth quarter. As a result of those same headwinds occupancy declined by 30 basis points.

We are raising office rents in Honolulu and now showing higher net effective office rents in all of our submarkets except Warner Center. Our multi-family portfolio continues to shine with full occupancy and average asking rents 5.8% higher than a year ago. Our same property cash NOI grew by 2.7% in the first quarter fueled by higher revenue from our office and multi-family portfolios as well as lower office operating expenses. We have increased our guidance for same-store cash NOI growth for the full year to between 1% and 2%.

We continue to have great access to the capital markets. Our balance sheet is stronger than ever and with ample liquidity to pursue additional acquisition opportunities. I will now turn the call over to Ted.

Thanks, Jordan. Good morning, everyone. I'd like to start with our results which I will address our office and multi-family fundamentals and then provide some color on our updated 2013 guidance.

Compared to the same period in 2012 our 2013 first-quarter FFO increased 7.1% to $64.1 million or $0.37 per diluted share, treating debt interest rate swaps as fully terminated in the quarter of termination. Our AFFO increased 21.8% to $50.1 million or $0.29 per diluted share.

We grew our first-quarter 2013 total office revenues by 1% compared to the same period in 2012 with increasing parking and other income as well as tenant recoveries. The increase in tenant recoveries largely reflects a timing shift as we completed more prior-year tenant CAM reconciliations during Q1 this year than we did in the same quarter of 2012. As a result we expect less tenant recovery from prior-year reconciliations during the second and third quarters this year.

As Jordan mentioned, our operations group did an excellent job controlling expense growth during the first quarter with operating expenses rising only 1% from the same period of 2012. We currently expect that same store operating expenses for all of 2013 will increase between 1% and 2%.

For the first quarter of 2013 our G&A totaled $7.1 million or 4.9% of total revenues. We continue to run one of the run one of the most efficient operating platforms in our peer group with our G&A and CapEx among the lowest as a percentage of revenue.

Comparing the results for our combined office and multi-family same properties in the first quarter of 2013 to the first quarter of 2012, revenues increased 1.4% on a GAAP basis and 2.1% on a cash basis. Expenses increased by 0.9% both on a GAAP basis and on a cash basis and net operating income increased 1.5% on a GAAP basis and 2.7% on a cash basis.

Cash same-store NOI on a quarterly basis is very sensitive to the timing of relatively small dollar amounts. As a result of the timing of tenant recoveries that I already mentioned, as well as AIG's higher pre-rent during the third and fourth quarters, we are projecting that our 2013 cash same-store NOI was between 1% and 2% greater than in 2012.

Turning to office fundamentals. During the first quarter we increased the lease percentage for our total office portfolio by 30 basis points to 91.4% while our occupancy rate declined 30 basis points to 89.3%.

As we discussed on our last call, we had a number of unexpected Q4 tenant departures that were deferred until 2013. Excluding the effect of these delayed tenant move outs, in the first quarter our leased rate increased by 70 basis points and our occupied rate increased by 10 basis points.

During the first quarter we signed 179 office leases covering 754,000 square feet including 237,000 square feet of new office leases. Our annualized TI and leasing commissions in the first quarter are among the lowest in the last three years. We are now raising office rents in Honolulu and continue to show higher net effective office rents in all of our office submarkets other than Warner Center.

Our rents continue to roll down from leases signed during peak periods, although those leases represent a smaller percentage of expiring leases each quarter. Excluding the AIG lease during the first quarter, on a straight-line basis our average rent on executed office leases was 3.8% lower than the average rent -- expiring rent for the same space.

On a cash basis our beginning cash rent on executed office leases was 1.4% lower than the average starting rent and 13.7% lower than the average ending rent on the expiring lease for the same space. The difference in these numbers reflects the impact of our annual rent bumps.

On a mark-to-market basis our office asking rents were an average of 3.3% lower than our in-place cash rents. This differential reflects a number of factors including our built-in annual rent escalations.

On the multi-family side our 2,900 units where 99.6% leased at March 31, 2013, with continued strong rental increases. During the last 12 months we have raised our average asking rent on new residential leases by 5.8%. Recurring capital expenditures for our apartment communities during the first quarter of 2013 averaged $66 per unit, down from $110 per unit during the first quarter of 2012, largely reflecting timing differences.

Now turning to our balance sheet -- as we mentioned on our last call, in January we paid approximately $8 million to purchase an additional 3.25% interest in Douglas Emmett Fund 10 and an 0.9% interest in Douglas Emmett Partnership 10. These funds collectively own eight properties totaling 1.8 million square feet of space in our core submarkets. Our weighted average ownership percentage in these properties is now just under 60%.

During the first quarter we used $90 million of our cash on hand to reduce the outstanding balance of our April 2015 loan to $150 million. At the end of the quarter we still had over $292 million in cash on our balance sheet. Our net leverage was 41% of enterprise value, well within our target range.

We continue to have ample liquidity for potential acquisitions and other working capital uses. As Jordan mentioned, we also expect to use a portion of our cash on hand to complete the purchase of 8484 Wilshire later this month. The REIT will own 100% of this multi-tenant property and we will not use any debt to close.

On April 30, 2013 we closed a $325 million loan to refinance an existing loan to one of our unconsolidated funds, reducing its outstanding debt by $40 million. The new loan matures on May 1, 2018 and we have effectively fixed its interest rate at 2.35% per annum until May 1, 2017.

Finally, we have increased our guidance for 2013 FFO to between $1.43 per share and $1.49 per share. This increase primarily reflects better cash NOI and our acquisition of 8484 Wilshire. Somewhat lower interest expense and G&A is offset by higher share count as a result of increases in our share price.

For more information on the factors underlying this guidance, please refer to the new schedule we've added to the back of our earnings package. With that I will now turn the call over to the operator so we can take your questions.

(Operator Instructions). Jordan Sadler, KeyBanc.

I wanted to dig into 8484 if there was any incremental insight you could offer. I know it sounds like, Ted, you mentioned that it is incorporated into the revised guidance, the transaction.

Yes, it is.

What is pricing look like though? How should we think about the economics on the transaction?

Well, when you say what's pricing look like, we gave -- we bought it for $89 million, it's 225,000 square feet. What's the --?

[GAAP] rate?

We are not big on cap rate. In terms of the getting into too many of those details, I think we would like to wait until it actually closes.

Okay. How occupied?

It is [mediocrely] occupied. We signed a new deal with Larry Flynt and we will come out with some better detail after the deal closes. But we are real pleased with the deal. But it is a deal that is going to take -- we are going to do rehab, we are going to do lease up and we're going to do a bunch of stuff to it. It is a building with great bones; it used to be the Great Western headquarters. So it's well located, great bones, it's exactly what we look for and like to do.

Kind of like a Core+ transaction?

Yes.

Okay. And then just on sort of the roll expectations, the detail ex-AIG was helpful. I am just curious; looking at the supplemental, maybe drilling down some of the bigger roll exposure over the course of the next four quarters is in Sherman Oaks and Warner Center. Specifically based on what you're seeing in market rents there -- in the market -- submarkets, what do you think we should expect in terms of what rents do?

I don't know that -- if I'm -- I don't know that our roll necessarily drives what rents are doing, but I will tell you this -- Warner Center is a market that we are real pleased, it is recovering now. It is not going to recover in rental rate until the occupancy gets up closer to the 90%. But in terms of the leasing activity out there, I mean the numbers speak for themselves, look at the last couple of quarters, right?

So we really -- it's a market that is moving and I have said this to be blue in the face, but there was a time when Warner Center rents were higher than the Encino/Sherman Oaks rents. And today it is -- Sherman Oaks is a very hot market and it is doing extremely well for us.

As earlier was said, all of these markets -- and I'm pleased that this quarter we were able to make it clear that even including Hawaii we are seeing rents move up now with the exception of Warner Center. Maybe I'm not answering your question. So I am not sure.

I was just -- should we expect the Sherman Oaks and Warner Center roll that happens over the course of the next year to roll down what magnitude or roll flat or what have you? It looks like you have 300,000 plus square feet in each market in the $33 range call it.

I don't have the information on this call to answer that. Maybe Ted can look into it. Or he's sort of (inaudible) thinking about it. I'm looking at him -- I'm talking while he is trying to figure it out.

I think the two markets are very different. I think that -- let's talk about each one of them maybe. So Sherman Oaks has been, as you know, one of the first markets to come out of the recession and has been doing really well. There was a quarterly fluctuation going down which actually represents an interesting story.

We had -- we have been trying, as you know, to sort of move tenants towards Warner Center and obviously with the growth in occupancy in the last couple of quarters we have been having some success. And in Sherman Oaks we had a 30,000 square foot tenant in the entertainment technology space that wanted to expand, wanted to have a bigger floor plate. And so they were, as a result, they moved out to Warner Center.

So -- not in our portfolio because we don't have bigger floor plates out there. But that movement of tenants is actually what we have been trying to do. We backfilled a bunch of that space already in the quarter and we'll have very little doubt that that market is doing really well and rents are going up there. So I think we --.

I can circle back to you on market rents after the call. Thanks, guys.

Joshua Attie, Citi.

Are there any changes or can you give us an update on the residential development opportunities in the portfolio that you mentioned a couple of quarters ago? And do you still envision starting some of those in 2014?

Oh, yes. We are working on them. I am not sure there is going to be -- it is a slow process, as I said before. But we are working on them. It's not -- I don't know if there is a lot to update in the -- minor details of getting titlements worked out and planning. But moving along.

I guess now that we are close to -- now that we are closer to 2014 could you give us some sense of the dollar amounts of starts that you could see next year?

Well, I like -- can we wait a quarter -- another quarter to get some things finished up and then I will give you a -- maybe we'll focus on that giving you a better feel for that.

Okay. And kind of separate question. You had a large cash balance and you put some of that to work and you still have some. But are you considering a credit facility again? I know in the past that you felt like having $400 million of cash kind of precluded the need for a credit facility, but are you rethinking that?

Well, what we have done is we are sort of storing cash in that loan that comes up in 2015, which is a floating rate loan, so we have a lot of kind of in that pool. We can pull equity out I think relatively easily. Now do we want to do it -- kind of looking out on the horizon of what is coming up, what the needs are and we are going to refinance that loan.

So should we refinance that loan and turn it into a credit line or should we refinance that loan and take the cash out. We are working through that right now, but it is going to be some mix of that because that is -- well, there is some places we are storing equity too, but that is the main place we are storing it where it is very flexible and available. That's the $90 million pay down we did.

Yes.

Okay, thanks a lot.

George Auerbach, ISI Group.

Just to maybe ask Jordan's question a separate way, Jordan Sadler. Any thoughts on cash roll downs for the balance of 2013? The first quarter was sort of impacted by AIG, but how should we think about the balance of 2013?

Well, I've been giving you this number that I look at that cash generating where we see -- obviously, you know, we do a ton of deal -- leases, so we see the pipeline of the leases and where the bid ask is negotiating those deals to try to get a feel for what is coming in the future on them.

And my last look we were up to 40%, maybe a hair over 40% where it was rent rollup instead of roll down. Now obviously that doesn't get you there. But that has moved a great distance in the last eight quarters, all right, when it was like 10% or something.

So it is moving in the right direction. But as we said a number of times, which quarter it hits -- hey, I hope it hits soon because I know everyone is waiting to see it. But which exact quarter it hits is a tougher call, and the best way to predict it is we have been kind of looking at the pipeline of what is being leased, the deals that are being negotiated coming in the -- that will close in the future.

Okay. Maybe on that question can you maybe talk about your expectations? I know you are sort of pushing economics -- net economics in every market except for Warner Center. Can you maybe quantify the growth in net effectives over the last six or 12 months?

I would say that we are, in the last 18 months, a solid 10% and maybe a little more. I don't know the exact of the last 12 months. I mean because it's -- but in the last 18 we are over 10%.

And the last question for me, Jordan, you have been increasingly constructive on the Warner Center market the last especially two quarters here. How would you frame your expectations for leasing in that market over the balance of the year? I know you are almost 84% leased today. Where do you think that number is end of 2013?

That's tougher because as we get closer to 90% obviously it is going to slow down. We have been doing pretty -- we did 70 basis points this quarter and 200 the quarter before. I mean I think that's -- if we can even keep going at the 70 basis points pace I would go job well done. We are moving at a good clip. And it's -- but I hope that that's accelerating.

Ken is sitting right here and I don't want to put too much pressure on him. So I will just say that I'm optimistic that going forward -- which I know you are focused on this because getting absorption out of there goes straight to the bottom line and it has real material impact on FFO and all those numbers. And we are focused on it too and it is performing the way we had hoped, which we're getting a lot of good absorption out of that market. But I don't want to put a pin in the ground right now.

One of the things to remember, and it's a reason we don't give submarket guidance on occupancy is when you get down into these smaller numbers and you saw it in Sherman Oaks, Encino where a single tenant moving out even though we backfilled half of it still shows up in the numbers. On a quarter-to-quarter basis particularly it's really hard to make a judgment call.

But as Jordan said, the trendlines in Warner Center -- we told you last year that we really were excited about Warner Center over the longer term. And the trendlines, I think we have been showing that. And I think we still are excited about it going forward. But exactly where it plays out each quarter is hard to tell.

Great, thank you.

Alexander Goldfarb, Sandler O'Neill.

Two questions, first up on the apartments. Obviously you got good accelerated NOI growth out of the apartments. But your expenses were definitely a lot lower, $1.6 million this quarter. I know they can vary quarter to quarter, but last year expenses in the apartment seemed to average around 3% to 4% and now it has dropped.

Just wondering how much of this is sort of quarterly volatility versus there were a bunch of items and expenses that ratcheted up last year that aren't going to hit this year and curious what your outlook is for expenses as we think about apartment NOI growth this year?

Okay, so, I think that -- I think first of all when you are having good increases on the revenue line you are going to have sort of better NOI even if you have expense growth. I think that there also was some timing in the first quarter. So I think we are not looking for the expenses on that to be the big contributor to the NOI growth, it is really going to be at the top-line.

Okay, okay, that's helpful. And then second, Jordan, I understand your hesitation to discuss too in depth the Flint building, but just for generic purposes -- like if you look on the website you can see that they are showcasing ground-floor space that presumably could be monetized.

But can you just sort of provide some generic color without being too specific that you don't want to disclose beforehand? But just as we think about this acquisition as far as the impact today versus what it potentially could be down the road and if that down the road is within a year or so or if this is a multi-year underwriting the way you are thinking about it?

Okay. Well it is -- as I said a few minutes ago, the bones of the building are fantastic and so it is really like -- it is a perfect Douglas Emmett asset. Larry Flynt and his organization were a pleasure to work with; we did a new deal with them for roughly 72,000 feet. So they are not -- they're a super value large tenant in the building, but not overwhelming.

And we are -- I think that there is work we are doing in the lobby, there is some ground floor leasing, there is some other leasing. There is actually some very -- first of all, the Flynt organization is a great organization and there are some other organizations that are in there, there are some Embassy -- consulates.

And so, we are starting with a good mix and we are going to build off that and we will redo the space, we will lease it up. We spent a little time getting them onto our forum, but I'm optimistic that our rehab and we'll be deeply into the re-leasing by next year and you will see a very well performing building.

I mean, I hope that -- I'm an optimistic guy. I think it is even going to outperform our expectations hopefully earlier than that. But I think by next year it is going to be a very good contributor to the portfolio.

So, as far as the CapEx needed versus the $89 million purchase price, is there a meaningful amount of CapEx above that or not so much?

Yes. I want to -- I mean -- I don't want to go too much into numbers, but it is like between $4 million and $5 million that we would put in, that we are going to put in to get it to where we want it. I mean it was an owner user building and now we need to put it -- it has the ability to be one of the best buildings in Beverly Hills, the bones are that good. I mean the floor-to-ceiling glass and the whole iconic John Wayne statue and anyone that has seen the building -- I mean everybody knows that building.

Okay. We look forward to hearing more when you guys can disclose more. Thank you.

Vance Edelson, Morgan Stanley.

The asking rants in multi-family, they have been in the high 5%'s for a couple of quarters now and you are looking for some top-line growth there. So do you view 5% to 6% as sort of a natural level for another few quarters or any chance we could see a change there?

Well, there is always a chance you can see a change. And I'm not quite sure natural (inaudible). But here is the thing -- I would say what we said in the prior quarters which is we have not yet seen significant change in resistance at this point. So I think we are still looking forward to having additional quarters of good solid growth.

Okay, great. And then I might have missed it, but just with regard to the acquisition pipeline. Are you still characterizing it as still fairly limited or is there any uptick in the opportunities in either LA or Honolulu?

The pipeline in terms of people we are talking to, cajoling, working on, it has stayed fairly similar because we are just in these markets and we are always working on people. But in terms of I think people's inclination to bring buildings to market, that is improving and more stuff is coming to market.

And so, well remember, you are talking to a guy that's almost always wrong and optimistic about how much we are going to buy each year. I am feeling even better than I do -- have in the past that we will get a few more good deals done.

Great, thanks.

Rob Stevenson, Macquarie.

With some of the occupancy in the West LA markets tightening are you sensing any greater willingness for tenants to start lease renewal negotiations earlier than they have over the last couple years?

I don't know that that can be said. I mean the primary place where you see the tightening up is in better rental rates, reduction of concessions -- I mean one -- go ahead.

I was going to say I think with most of our smaller tenants, they are not thinking about it and quite that way that they are doing things. I think that most of our small tenants are reacting to things within their own world. And so, when they are sort of thinking about renewing they sit down and they are not really focused on what the markets for real estate are doing. And that is actually one of the reasons why it's a different process of negotiation for us.

Yes, I will say this -- one thing that is a clear sign is that we are starting to get some higher bumps in our leases. So I don't know if you -- for our longtime followers and well-wishers, I mean going in to when we went public we were getting 4% and even better in some instances in terms of the embedded bumps in the leases.

And now we are starting to do deals again where the numbers -- and then we fell back to 3% during the recession. Now we are moving back up again, we are signing deals now, 3.5%-4%. So it is all moving back up, so that is a great sign.

And another one is that focusing kind of off just the rent issue is that our parking revenue is moving again at a very good clip with not only improved occupancy but density that you get out of tenants kind of doing additional hiring and filling out their space.

That was responsible for the sort of millions plus quarter-over-quarter gap there on the office parking line?

There are a variety of factors in that -- it is not a single factor. There are changes in rate, there are changes in density and then there are some other income factors in that same line.

Okay. And then in the Warner Center market, I mean from overall market occupancy, where is that today and sort of what sort of needs to happen from a tightening standpoint? I mean you guys normally talk about 90% occupancy, but it seems like that is going to be a fairly long way off at this point, right?

Well, we are a huge portion of that market, particularly the Class A part of that market. So it would be very hard for that market not to just move along with us. I think we are -- in that particular market we might be 100 basis points or 150 basis points ahead of the market. But it is going to stay relatively -- relatively close to us. But as I said, I mean there are deals in our portfolio and out of our portfolio, I mean the margin is filling.

So you know -- in terms of our long-range plans -- or long-range expectations for Warner Center, I think that -- I mean I always -- we always had confidence even through this most recent recession that it would play out in a good way for us. And now I think we even feel better about that because it is playing out in a good way.

Okay, and then one last one for Ted. The same store cash NOI growth on the 2013 outlook, the 1% to 2%, is that just for the office or is that including the apartments as well?

That includes both office and multi-family.

Okay. Thanks, guys.

Michael Knott, Green Street Advisors.

How is it going? Actually it is Jed Reagan here with Michael. I just want to ask a question -- so there was some uncertainty on the last earnings call about the reliability of your same-store NOI model. And so I'm just wondering if you've fine-tuned that model at all or perhaps created a new model altogether. And then just kind of a related question to that, what are the key drivers of the increased same-store NOI guidance?

Well, that wasn't a great call. The Company is very good at forecasting. And your company in particular knows because you have followed us from the day we went public that we have been very good at forecasting our numbers. Now at the same time we are rightfully a conservative company and our forecasting is conservative.

I was more optimistic last quarter, I didn't do a good job of communicating that. And the good news is my optimism was warranted and the numbers are coming out better.

In terms of the exact reasons why the numbers are -- why we are not projecting 1% to 2% for the year has to do with expense, with taking a look at our expenses and expense performance that we have had in the first quarter as an indicator, better basic fundamentals across the board, the parking revenue that I mentioned, it's things like that that have given us the confidence to forecast the 1% to 2%.

Okay, but there wasn't sort of a major overhaul that took place subsequent to that?

No.

Okay. And then just another one. Just wonder if you can talk a little bit about how your current leasing pipeline is looking and maybe how that is trending versus the last quarter or two?

It's all green lights across the Board. It is a strong pipeline, the last few quarters have been strong and there is no reason to expect from us looking at the current pipeline that it's not going to continue to be strong and that it's not going to continue to support increasing rents.

Okay. Would you characterize it as accelerating?

Well, it is hard to say just looking one quarter to the next accelerating. But when I'm already saying supporting increasing rent that is pretty good. I mean you want to have increasing increasing rents?

And just last one for me, how are you guys thinking about dispositions in the current environment? Do you have any non-core product that you would consider harvesting at this point?

I don't feel that way. I mean when we went public quite a number of years ago the stuff that we didn't think was in the class that we wanted to be in terms of a long-term portfolio we did sell. We sold, I don't know, 15 buildings or maybe a few more.

Now I feel like we have got a good concentrated portfolio in market that we really like. And that as the markets improve there is no reason to choose one out of the pack and say, well, this one is not going to do as well as others or I can put this money into another one in the same market and expect it to do any better. So, no, I don't expect any dispositions any time soon.

Okay, great. Thanks a lot, guys.

John Guinee, Stifel.

Nice job, guys.

Thank you.

Here is a sort of a technical question, Ted. You have got about $15 million of FAS 141 FFO, which is about $0.08 or $0.09 a share, which I expected to be gone by now because I thought that had to do with acquisition-related accounting, but maybe it does, maybe it doesn't. The question is, I think, does the FAS 141 go away and offset growth in rents over the next two or three years or is that apples and oranges?

I think it's apples and oranges. I am not quite sure -- we are deep into accounting so I don't even know if you can use fruit as an analogy here. But you are correct that most of our FAS 141 relates to leases at the time of the public offering, although every time you do an acquisition there are some FAS 141 considerations that come in.

But I think that the thing that you may not be thinking about is we have a number of leases that are still in place from the IPO, leases that were 10 years or even in some cases like the Warner Bros. lease, it is longer than 10 years.

And so, that number will continue to come down by, I don't know, call it -- and I'm making this number -- call it about $3 million a year for the next number of years, and then it will sort of level off until we get to the end of the Warner Bros. leases, the big one. But there are actually some other longer-term leases out there.

So that should burn off to the tune of $3 million a year for the next four or five years?

Yes, that is a rough number to use. So if you look at it next year I am guessing, again, we will have -- it will be about $12 million next year. And again, there are always indications of what happened. So it just burns off like that.

You know, it is only that you can even make a prediction like that because we went public and there was so much FAS 141 when we went public. I mean as we are buying you build FAS 141 and then as the leases in the buildings that you bought burn off you burn off FAS 141. So there is -- I doubt there's any company out -- public company out there that doesn't have some chunk of this that is always floating around. And obviously when we went public we had a lot, now I suspect that we have about an average amount.

He still have a lot. And then the second question is you were nice enough to host me in Hawaii a year ago and --

Do you want to go back?

-- that's a very thin market. My question is can you give us any more sort of a rationale as to why rents are going up in Honolulu?

Well, the Honolulu economy is actually doing fairly well. Tourism is doing great. The military is actually doing better there because they've been bringing people back from the wars and construction has started up again. So the three big industries in Honolulu have been doing fairly well.

Unemployment is approaching 4%, they have more people in jobs in Honolulu today than they had at the top of 2007. So all of those are good signs for Honolulu and the market has been 90 plus for a while and so it was always right at the edge. I think we've been telling you guys that while we couldn't call it at that point that it wasn't -- unlike Warner Center it is right at the edge of going over and we think it has gone over now.

(Inaudible) now.

Perfect. Okay, thank you.

Rich Anderson, BMO Capital Markets.

I just want to say, Jordan, mediocre occupied -- that was just priceless, I love that, I just wanted to say that. So, when you look at same-store portfolio, 1% to 2% up on a cash basis, it seems like things are going pretty well and that maybe even still is understating what you will ultimately do this year.

But I am curious if you could look back to the 2006 time frame, although you weren't able to produce same-store results then because you were so new to the public world, would you be able to hazard a guess of what the potential same-store internal growth prospects are of this portfolio when things are kind of back to normalized levels?

I don't know if I would call 2000 -- I mean essentially -- because the expense side. I guess you are not asking us to project, you are saying what was the impact of those rapidly rising rents.

Yes, correct.

2005 and 2006 and 2006 and 2007. And first of all I don't know that we are at 2000 -- I wouldn't kind of call our equivalent to be 2006, we are not seeing (multiple speakers).

That was probably the peak, right, okay.

That's a good question, it is a good way of asking it because people keep asking us as rents start rising how quickly will we see the actual increase in rental rate reflected in that year's FFO and AFFO in those numbers. And I don't -- I mean maybe guys have a better handle on that in other markets where rents are moving quickly and where that impact is.

As you just said, we haven't lived through as a public company a period when we were focused on this issue and rents were moving at like a solid like double-digit pace to see how much we were getting out of that. We haven't done that work yet. But it is -- it is a good question because once you get through the impact from just positive absorption that is the next impact everyone is looking for.

We could do a little more work around that and think about it. But we don't have an answer -- I don't have an answer. Unless Ted does. I don't know.

No, I think -- I mean the truth is that before we went public which would be the period (inaudible), the types of analytics that you use as a private company are very different from (multiple speakers) --

Right, right.

-- we have that data easily available. But it is an interesting question and we will think about whether we can come up with some ways of addressing that.

There you go, Stuart, put a note down right now.

Get on it. And then the second question unrelated. You probably did not envision owning 60% of the fund at this point when you were originally putting it together. I am curious as to if you think that all this change in ownership over the past couple of years is actually a blessing in disguise in your eyes in terms of you getting more of that. Or would you prefer to be back to your private days D&A and doing more in the way of fund activity in the more conventional sense?

I think that, as we said, the fund was really designed to augment our capital at a time when the -- when our stock price was not the place where we wanted to hit the equity so we did this as a supplement. It is not really the best way for a public company in our eyes to sort of buy things, especially when we have got -- if we could buy we would rather buy on balance sheet, to be fair, and we are happy we were able to acquire it.

Although I will say that even from the beginning there was -- we were always contemplating that a very significant proportion of the cash that went into this would come from us. Because as a public company you guys reward us for what we invest in, not sort of managing other peoples' money.

Okay. So you don't think then that -- at least in for the foreseeable future that you will -- it will be 100% on balance sheet, no more kind of joint ventures/fund activity, you want to just go it alone for now?

Well, we could still do joint ventures. I think joint ventures are a little better way for us to go on something that is large if you are looking at --

Right.

-- just raising equity in the public markets. But this deal with the blind funds where when you don't have something you still have the obligation to look for something, that is really -- a lot of energy gets put out and obviously for all that energy you don't necessarily get the whole bang to your Company. So that would be less preferable.

Okay, all right, sounds good. Thank you.

Joshua Attie, Citi.

Michael Bilerman. Just on the funds, I guess there is -- is there about $100 million, $105 million of investor capital, equity capital left in those funds, is that a fair number?

No I think it's -- I think it is more than that.

I think in the combined funds it is probably close to -- .

It's 40% of --

No, it's more in the neighborhood of -- it is $200 million or (multiple speakers).

(Inaudible) around $200 million. (Multiple speakers) that we are managing of their investment, is that what you're asking me?

Of their equity --

Of their equity investment.

Yes, their equity -- the amount of cash they put in.

Correct. And that is included in the unfunded commitments or that is just what they --?

There are no more unfunded commitments; the investment period for the funds have expired.

So the $200 million just is -- and how chunky are those investors in terms of further opportunities for you to consolidate in the remaining 40%? I mean is there more opportunities for you to buy those? You've obviously been increasing your stake. I'm just try to figure out whether this is going to be something that is going to continue to be a source of capital for the Company?

Well, I mean -- let me start out with none of these deals -- I mean we weren't happy about the deals because I want the people that invested along with us to get the benefit of having held these properties and doing real well. I mean we want our investors to do well.

The sales that you have seen happen have been driven by not market-related or anything but regulatory things, one is a large financial institution that under the new regime doesn't feel comfortable having the type of equity investment. Another was a European pension fund manager that for whatever is going on over there they had to get out.

So there are opportunities I guess if you look at it from the narrowest focus, but the best is when they stay with us through the whole thing and we want us all to do real well and they do well. So I don't know if there is any of that left, but frankly I hope that our partners stay with us in these deals through the rest of the term.

So we shouldn't expect any of that $200 million -- there is nothing sort of in the works --?

We didn't expect the ones that came up, frankly.

Okay.

It really depends on what their -- if they have issues that are individual to them I don't think it is likely that anybody is going to buck sale because of the market or anything else. If they have regulatory issues or they have a need for cash, so that -- again, it could happen but we don't count on that.

In the composition of that $200 million that is remaining is there chunky pieces in there?

There is a good mix of investors there. I mean -- it is hard for it to be very chunky when we are such a huge chunk -- I mean the rest are a mix, it is not as though it is one or two big guys if that is what you are asking.

Yes, I was just trying to figure out what the -- and then, Ted, you had some new disclosure. In the lease roll page 19 you broke out sort of short-term leases from the current year expirations which I guess is the way you had done it before. I guess 187,000 square feet, is that a consistent amount of short-term? Is there anything chunky in that 187,000 that was a holdover that you are negotiating with? How should we think about sort of your month-to-month or your short-term leases ongoing?

Well, I think that that number is made up of a variety of sort of factors that just come into it some of them are short-term leases. Actually we have month-to-month leases that have been in portfolio for a decade or more that are in that category. But in general I think that is not a bad trend number.

Now it is down from December because in December, as we told you, we had an usually high number of holdovers, so we had about 60 basis points of holdover we told you in December, that is why we told you that. And therefore it is down from that by something on that order of magnitude.

But I actually don't think -- my impression -- I mean we will see it as we go forward in the numbers quarter by quarter. But my impression is that there is not a lot of -- there is a lot of bouncing in that thing but it is not a huge number up or down.

Is there any reason why those rents are materially below $30 relative to a portfolio average of $35, is there any reason why those are materially weaker? I would have thought if someone wants to go short-term you would charge them an arm and a leg.

Well, it depends -- the month-to-month stuff tends to be stuff that is sort of odd things in the portfolio, so it is not necessarily the --

Not necessarily the best space.

Not necessarily the best space, yes. And then also some of the short-term deals you do -- for example we will do production space when there is a company that is doing a movie, they need production space for a month or two and depending on the deal that might be actually cheaper for them in this bad space.

Okay, thanks. Glad the model is fixed also.

There are no further questions at this time.

Okay. It was a pleasure speaking with all of you and we look forward to speaking with you again soon. Thank you.

This does conclude today's conference call. You may now disconnect.