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Operator
Operator
The migrant crisis was this mid 80s and gentlemen, and welcome to the doc go Fourth Quarter and Full Year 2023 earnings conference call. At this time, all participants are in listen only mode. A question and answer session will follow the formal presentation. If anyone should require operator assistance during the conference, please press star clean zero on your telephone keypad. Please note this conference is being recorded and will now turn the conference over to Mike Cole, Vice President of Investor Relations. Please go ahead, sir.
先生們,移民危機發生在 80 年代中期,歡迎參加 2023 年第四季和全年財報電話會議。此時,所有參與者都處於僅聽模式。正式演講後將舉行問答環節。如果有人在會議期間需要操作員協助,請按電話鍵盤上的星號清除。請注意,本次會議正在錄製中,現在將會議移交給投資者關係副總裁 Mike Cole。請繼續,先生。
Mike Cole - VIce President of IR
Mike Cole - VIce President of IR
Thank you, operator. Before turning the call over to management, I would like to make the following remarks concerning forward-looking statements. All statements made in this conference call other than statements of historical fact are forward-looking statements. The words may will plan potential, could go, outlook, design, anticipate, and believe, estimates, expect, intend, guidance, confidence, target, project and other similar expressions may be used to identify such forward-looking statements. These forward-looking statements are not guarantees of future performance, and we cannot assure you that we will achieve or realize our plans, intentions, outcomes results or expectations Forward-looking statements are inherently subject to substantial risks, uncertainties and assumptions, many of which are beyond our control and which may cause our actual results or outcomes or the timing of results or outcomes to differ materially from those contained in our forward-looking statements. These risks, uncertainties and assumptions include, but are not limited to, those discussed in our risk factors and elsewhere in DoCoMo's annual report on Form 10 K, quarterly reports on Form 10 Q and other reports and statements filed by Dr. with the SEC to which your attention is directed Actual outcomes and results or the timing of results that or outcomes may differ materially from what is expressed or implied by these forward looking statements.
謝謝你,接線生。在將電話轉交給管理層之前,我想就前瞻性陳述發表以下評論。除歷史事實陳述外,本次電話會議所做的所有陳述均為前瞻性陳述。可能會規劃潛力、可能去、展望、設計、預期、相信、估計、期望、打算、指導、信心、目標、項目和其他類似表達方式可用於識別此類前瞻性陳述。這些前瞻性陳述並非對未來業績的保證,我們不能向您保證我們將實現或實現我們的計劃、意圖、成果或期望前瞻性陳述本質上受到重大風險、不確定性和假設的影響,其中許多風險、不確定性和假設超出我們的控制範圍,這可能導致我們的實際結果或結果或結果或結果的時間與我們的前瞻性陳述中包含的內容有重大差異。這些風險、不確定性和假設包括但不限於我們的風險因素以及DoCoMo 表格10 K 年度報告、表格10 Q 季度報告以及Dr. 向SEC 提交的其他報告和聲明中討論的風險、不確定性和假設。您的注意力所指向的實際結果和結果或結果的時間或結果可能與這些前瞻性陳述所明示或暗示的內容有重大差異。
In addition, today's call contains references to non-GAAP financial measures. Reconciliations of these non-GAAP financial measures to the most directly comparable GAAP financial measures are provided directly as part of this call are included in our earnings release, which is posted on our website, Taco.com, as well as filed with the Securities and Exchange Commission. Information contained in this call is accurate as of only the date discussed. Investors should not assume that statements will remain relevant and operative at a later time. We undertake no obligation to update any information discussed in this call to reflect events or circumstances after the date of this call or to reflect new information or the occurrence of unanticipated events except to the extent required by law at this time.
此外,今天的電話會議也提到了非公認會計準則財務指標。這些非GAAP 財務指標與最直接可比較的GAAP 財務指標的對帳直接作為本次電話會議的一部分包含在我們的收益發布中,該發布發佈在我們的網站Taco.com 上,並向證券和證券交易委員會備案。外匯委員會。本次電話會議所包含的資訊僅截至討論日期準確。投資者不應假設這些聲明在以後仍然具有相關性和可操作性。我們沒有義務更新本次電話會議中討論的任何資訊以反映本次電話會議之後發生的事件或情況,或反映新資訊或意外事件的發生,除非目前法律要求的範圍。
It is now my pleasure to turn the call over to Mr. Levy and stock CEO.
現在我很高興將電話轉給利維先生和股票執行長。
Dr.
博士。
Lee, please go ahead.
李,請繼續。
Lee Bienstock - CEO
Lee Bienstock - CEO
Thank you, Mike, and thank you all for joining today. And it is certainly fair to say that 2023 was an eventful year and my first hundred days as CEO, we're laser focused on setting an ambitious vision for how we will proactively help make patients healthier and help keep them out of the hospital. Our record Q4 and full year results are proof that this vision is taking shape, and I look forward to continuing to build on this momentum in 2024 and beyond.
謝謝麥克,也謝謝大家今天加入。可以公平地說,2023 年是不平凡的一年,也是我擔任執行長的頭一百天,我們全神貫注於制定雄心勃勃的願景,即如何主動幫助患者變得更健康,並幫助他們遠離醫院。我們創紀錄的第四季和全年業績證明這個願景正在形成,我期待在 2024 年及以後繼續鞏固這一勢頭。
During the quarter, we experienced significant growth and strong operational execution as we made considerable progress with our core strategic objectives in all three key customer verticals, insurance partners, hospital systems and our government population health programs. I'm going to share accomplishments and progress across all three of these verticals. But first, I want to lead off with our financial performance and guidance for 2024. In Q4, we grew revenues and adjusted EBITDA to 199.2 million and 22.6 million, respectively, up 83% and 232% when compared to the fourth quarter of 2022. In the fourth quarter alone, DoCoMo performed over 72,000 mobile health interactions and 190,000 medical transports globally. While leveraging a workforce of now more than 8,000, we continue to grow, not only in size, but also in scope as we have more than doubled our service offerings in the last year to include procedures such as bone density, scans, pressure screening and other valuable services we can deliver where convenient outside of the traditional brick and mortar health care system. While there is more work to do, we made substantial progress late in the fourth quarter with our cash collections, and that trend has accelerated in 2020. For subsequent to year end, we have collected approximately 120 million in outstanding receivables and are working with our largest customers to maintain a more consistent cadence going forward.
在本季度,我們經歷了顯著的成長和強大的營運執行力,因為我們在所有三個關鍵客戶垂直領域、保險合作夥伴、醫院系統和政府人口健康計畫的核心策略目標方面取得了顯著進展。我將分享所有這三個垂直領域的成就和進展。但首先,我想先介紹我們 2024 年的財務表現和指導。第四季度,我們的營收成長,調整後的 EBITDA 分別達到 1.992 億和 2,260 萬,與 2022 年第四季相比分別成長 83% 和 232%。僅在第四季度,DoCoMo 在全球範圍內進行了超過 72,000 次行動健康互動和 190,000 次醫療運輸。在利用目前超過 8,000 名員工的同時,我們不僅在規模上不斷擴大,而且在範圍上也不斷擴大,因為去年我們提供的服務增加了一倍多,包括骨密度、掃描、壓力篩選和我們可以在傳統實體醫療保健系統之外方便地提供其他有價值的服務。儘管還有更多工作要做,但我們在第四季末在現金回收方面取得了實質進展,而這一趨勢在 2020 年加速了。到年底,我們已收回約 1.2 億美元的未償應收帳款,並正在與我們最大的客戶合作,以保持更一致的節奏。
We're also moving into a more mature state with some of our recent municipal and population health initiatives and are seeing the associated higher costs that came with those program launches abate. This puts us in a strong position to achieve improved adjusted EBITDA margins and cash flow as we progress through 2024.
我們最近的一些市政和人口健康措施也正在進入一個更成熟的狀態,並且看到與這些計劃啟動相關的較高成本有所減少。這使我們在 2024 年取得進展時處於有利地位,可以實現調整後 EBITDA 利潤率和現金流的改善。
On that note, today, we updated our 2024 revenue guidance to a range of 720 million to 750 million. This is consistent with our previously disclosed view that suggested 2024 revenue would exceed $700 million. Our 2024 adjusted EBITDA guidance range is $80 million to $85 million we also recently announced a share repurchase approval for up to 36 million. Taco is confident in our cash position. We are confident in our cash collections. We are confident in our access to capital, and we are confident in our strong business fundamentals at current valuation levels. We believe that share repurchases represent an efficient and value-enhancing use of capital since becoming CEO, I centered our efforts around our core customers, insurance partners, hospital systems and government population health programs. Now I would like to share progress and growth on all first one area that is relatively small, a relatively small contributor to revenues today, but which we believe offers tremendous growth potential is our care gap closure programs with major insurance companies. The core initial focus of these programs is on noncompliant patients who have not seen their primary care provider in over a year and have at least one chronic condition by leveraging our mobile capabilities and meeting patients where they are by bringing care to their homes. We are validating to these customers that we can improve patient compliance rates materially. We are now offering over 30 different care gap closure services, including colon cancer and cancer screening and diabetic renal exams. Late in 2023, we launched payer programs in Michigan, Connecticut and New Jersey and during the fourth quarter alone, we more than doubled the number of patients seen under these programs when compared to the third quarter. And we expect that trend to continue. The reality is that a certain percentage of the population simply avoids or is unable to go to a traditional brick and mortar facility for these services by making the process extremely convenient and efficient in the comfort of their own home. We can improve health outcomes, lower costs, help stratify risk and help keep people out of the hospital, which is what our insurance partners want and it's of course what our patients want. Our remote patient monitoring efforts continue to progress as well. We currently monitor approximately 50,000 CIED. or cardiac implantable electronic device patients, which is up from 38,000 at the start of 2023. We continue to see a significant opportunity in our monitoring efforts, both on a stand-alone basis and as part of our highest quality score improvement and value based service offerings.
有鑑於此,今天我們將 2024 年收入指引更新為 7.2 億至 7.5 億美元。這與我們先前揭露的觀點一致,即 2024 年收入將超過 7 億美元。我們的 2024 年調整後 EBITDA 指引範圍為 8,000 萬美元至 8,500 萬美元,我們最近也宣布批准最多 3,600 萬股的股票回購。Taco 對我們的現金狀況充滿信心。我們對現金回收充滿信心。我們對獲得資本充滿信心,對當前估值水準下強勁的業務基本面充滿信心。我們相信,自擔任執行長以來,股票回購代表了資本的有效利用和增值,我的工作重點是我們的核心客戶、保險合作夥伴、醫院系統和政府人口健康計畫。現在,我想分享第一個領域的進展和成長,該領域相對較小,對當今收入的貢獻相對較小,但我們相信它提供了巨大的成長潛力,那就是我們與主要保險公司的護理差距縮小計劃。這些計劃的核心最初重點是針對那些一年多沒有見過初級保健提供者且患有至少一種慢性病的不合規患者,通過利用我們的移動功能並通過將護理帶到患者家中來滿足患者的需求。我們正在向這些客戶證明我們可以顯著提高患者的依從率。我們現在提供 30 多種不同的護理差距彌合服務,包括結腸癌和癌症篩檢以及糖尿病腎臟檢查。2023 年末,我們在密西根州、康乃狄克州和新澤西州推出了付款計劃,僅在第四季度,我們在這些計劃下就診的患者數量就比第三季度增加了一倍多。我們預計這種趨勢將持續下去。現實情況是,一定比例的人只是避免或無法前往傳統的實體設施獲得這些服務,因為他們在自己舒適的家中使這一過程變得極其方便和高效。我們可以改善健康結果、降低成本、幫助分層風險並幫助人們遠離醫院,這是我們的保險合作夥伴想要的,當然也是我們的病人想要的。我們的遠端患者監測工作也不斷取得進展。我們目前監控大約 50,000 個 CIED。或心臟植入電子設備患者,這一數字較 2023 年初的 38,000 人增加。我們繼續看到我們的監控工作存在重大機會,無論是獨立的還是作為我們最高品質分數改進和基於價值的服務產品的一部分。
Second, with our medical transportation segment, which is largely hospital systems, we closed out the year with another strong performance.
其次,在我們的醫療運輸部門(主要是醫院系統)中,我們以另一次強勁的業績結束了這一年。
To put the progress in perspective in the fourth quarter of 2023. This business was at a revenue run rate of $160 million with a gross margin of 28.9% closing the year. That run rate was 190 million with a gross margin of 37.5% we announced a number of meaningful RFP wins in the second half of 2023, both domestically and in the UK, which we expect will continue to help drive strong growth in 2024. We have also placed a significant emphasis on cross-selling and growing our mobile health presence with our hospital system partners and expect the result of that effort to begin yielding benefits later in the year.
展望 2023 年第四季的進展。該業務年終營業收入為 1.6 億美元,毛利率為 28.9%。該運行率為 1.9 億,毛利率為 37.5%,我們宣布 2023 年下半年在國內和英國贏得了一系列有意義的 RFP,我們預計這將繼續有助於推動 2024 年的強勁增長。我們也非常重視與醫院系統合作夥伴的交叉銷售和發展我們的行動醫療業務,並預計這項努力的結果將在今年稍後開始產生效益。
And third, in the government RFP channel, we currently operate population health programs in Arizona, California, Michigan and Tennessee. In addition to New York, these represent excellent opportunities to prove our value proposition and grow these geographies over time, much like we have done so successfully in the Northeast, our work with asylum seeker populations in New York has enabled us to expand and augment AACo's offerings, including scaling our behavioral health competency by performing over 50,000 depression screenings, growing our mobile pharmacy to prescribe over 70 different types of medications and increasing our vaccine administration capacity to over 40 different types of vaccines. We will continue to expand our capabilities and use this institutional knowledge and experience to create valuable new programs for current and prospective customers. A great statistic that highlights the value we are providing. We estimate that in 2023, we prevented over 54,000 unnecessary emergency room visits and saved our partners and their patients over $167 million in health care spending across our various programs, demonstrating just how much of a positive impact Taco can have for our partners and perhaps more importantly for the communities we serve. The impact and reach of our business extends far beyond underserved populations like the homeless and asylum seekers. We provide medical transportation for hundreds of hospitals. We deploy vaccination programs in multiple states. We monitor tens of thousands of cardiac patients. We close care gaps for bed down chronically ill and so much more.
第三,在政府 RFP 通路中,我們目前在亞利桑那州、加州、密西根州和田納西州開展人口健康計畫。除了紐約之外,這些都是證明我們的價值主張並隨著時間的推移發展這些地區的絕佳機會,就像我們在東北部取得的成功一樣,我們與紐約尋求庇護者群體的合作使我們能夠擴大和增強AACo 的服務服務,包括透過進行50,000 多次憂鬱症篩檢來擴展我們的行為健康能力,發展我們的行動藥局以開立70 多種不同類型的藥物,以及提高我們的疫苗接種能力以提供40 多種不同類型的疫苗。我們將繼續擴展我們的能力,並利用這些機構知識和經驗為現有和潛在客戶創建有價值的新計劃。一個很好的統計數據突顯了我們所提供的價值。我們估計,到2023 年,我們在各個項目中避免了超過54,000 次不必要的急診就診,並為我們的合作夥伴及其患者節省了超過1.67 億美元的醫療保健支出,這表明Taco 可以為我們的合作夥伴帶來多大的正面影響,甚至更多對我們所服務的社區來說很重要。我們業務的影響和範圍遠遠超出了無家可歸者和尋求庇護者等服務不足的人群。我們為數百家醫院提供醫療運輸。我們在多個州部署疫苗接種計劃。我們監測數以萬計的心臟病患者。我們縮小了長期病臥床患者等的照護差距。
In summary, our mission remains the same to continue bringing health care to people where and when they need it, which we did for many hundreds of thousands of patients in 2023 from all walks of life, all with the goal of helping keep them out of the hospital. And we're seeing great success with this effort.
總而言之,我們的使命始終如一,即繼續在需要的地方和時間為人們提供醫療保健服務,我們在2023 年為來自各行各業的數十萬患者做到了這一點,所有這些目標都是幫助他們遠離疾病醫院。我們看到這項努力取得了巨大成功。
At this time, I'll turn the call over to Norm, our CFO, to review the financials for both the fourth quarter and the full year 2023 norm.
此時,我會將電話轉交給我們的財務長 Norm,以審查第四季度和 2023 年全年的財務狀況。
Please go ahead.
請繼續。
Thank you, Julie, and good afternoon, everyone.
謝謝朱莉,大家下午好。
Norman Rosberg - CFO
Norman Rosberg - CFO
Total revenue for the fourth quarter of 2024 was 199.2 million, which was a 7% increase from a quarter ago and an 83% increase from the fourth quarter of 2022. For the full year, total revenue was 624.2 million at the high end of our upwardly revised guidance range and more than 40% higher than full year 2020 to revenues of 440.5 million. Mobile health revenue for the fourth quarter of 2023 was $150.4 million, up 8% from the third quarter and more than double the levels of Q4 2022, we experienced growth across several projects, business lines and geographies. Medical Transportation revenue increased to 48.8 million in Q4 of 2023, 32% higher than the transfer revenues we recorded in the fourth quarter of 2020 to nearly every transportation market witnessed year-over-year revenue growth. Continuing the momentum that began in the second half of last year. Transport revenues have now increased sequentially for six consecutive quarters, more than doubling during that time. In the fourth quarter, mobile health revenues accounted for about 75% of total revenues and transport for the other 25%. We expect that mobile health will continue to account for about 75% of total revenue in 2024. Net income was 8 million in Q4 2023 compared with net income of 4.6 million in the third quarter and net income of 7.1 million in the fourth quarter of 2022 as the fourth quarter of 2020 to a tax benefit of 9.1 million relating to the release of a valuation allowance for net operating losses. For the full year, net income was 10 million compared to $30.7 million in 2022. The year-over-year drop in net income is explained by two line items, non-cash stock compensation expense and income tax expense. We have expanded our stock compensation program to include a broader group of managers so that more of our colleagues who drive strategy and execution are incentivized to maximize shareholder value.
2024年第四季總營收為1.992億美元,季增7%,季增2022年第四季成長83%。全年總收入為 6.242 億美元,處於我們上調指導範圍的上限,比 2020 年全年 4.405 億美元的收入高出 40% 以上。2023 年第四季行動醫療收入為 1.504 億美元,較第三季成長 8%,是 2022 年第四季水準的兩倍多,我們在多個專案、業務線和地區都實現了成長。2023 年第四季度,醫療運輸收入增至 4,880 萬美元,比我們在 2020 年第四季記錄的轉移收入高出 32%,幾乎每個運輸市場的收入都實現了同比增長。延續去年下半年開始的勢頭。運輸收入現已連續六個季度連續增長,在此期間增長了一倍多。第四季度,行動醫療收入約佔總收入的75%,交通運輸佔另外25%。我們預計2024年行動醫療將繼續佔總收入的75%左右。2023 年第四季淨利為800 萬歐元,而第三季淨利為460 萬歐元,2022 年第四季淨利為710 萬歐元,與2020 年第四季相比,稅收優惠為910 萬歐元。淨經營虧損的估價備抵。全年淨利潤為 1000 萬美元,而 2022 年為 3070 萬美元。淨利潤年減的原因有二:非現金股票補償費用和所得稅費用。我們擴大了股票薪酬計劃,以涵蓋更廣泛的經理群體,以便激勵更多推動策略和執行的同事實現股東價值最大化。
On the tax front, in 2022, we realized a tax benefit of approximately $9 million as we released the valuation allowance on our net operating loss carryforwards or NOLs as we began generating pretax income and those NOLs became realizable in 2023, we recorded income tax expense as we exhausted those federal net operating loss carryforwards due to the generation of pretax income. Our effective tax rate for the fourth quarter was approximately 35%, which we believe is a good assumption for future periods.
在稅收方面,2022 年,我們實現了約900 萬美元的稅收優惠,因為我們開始產生稅前收入,並且這些NOL 於2023 年實現,我們釋放了淨營業損失結轉或NOL 的估值備抵,我們記錄了所得稅費用因為我們用完了因產生稅前收入而結轉的聯邦淨營業虧損。我們第四季的有效稅率約為 35%,我們認為這對未來期間來說是一個很好的假設。
Adjusted EBITDA for the fourth quarter of 2023 was $22.6 million, up 35% from adjusted EBITDA of 16.7 million in the third quarter and more than tripled to 6.8 million in last year's fourth quarter. For the full year, adjusted EBITDA was $54 million, a 31% increase from $41.3 million 2022, and more than double the adjusted EBITDA recorded back in 2021. The adjusted EBITDA margin was 11.4% in Q4, up from 8.9% in the third quarter and up from 6.3% in the fourth quarter of 2022. In fact, the fourth quarter's adjusted EBITDA margin represents the highest level we've reported since the first quarter of 2022 when nearly a third of total company revenues came from relatively high margin masked COVID testing services. Total gross margin percentage during the fourth quarter of 2023 was 33.5%, up nicely from the 29.5% in the third quarter, but lower than the 39% gross margin recorded in the fourth quarter of 2022. The fourth quarter of 2023 was the highest margin quarter during the year, slightly higher than what we saw in the second quarter. Gross margin in the fourth quarter represented a solid rebound from the subpar levels of the third quarter, which had been negatively impacted by the increased cost that resulted from the recent launch and ramp-up of new projects during the fourth quarter. While we were able to maintain third quarter revenue levels and in fact increase them further, we were able to improve margins by bringing overtime costs and subcontracted labor expenses closer in line with their projected levels as these projects hit their stride through the first two months of 2024. We have seen further improvements in these areas and believe we should see some sequential gross margin improvements in Q1 of 2024. During the fourth quarter of 2023, gross margins from the mobile health segment was 32.2% compared to 28.8% in the third quarter and 43.9% in the fourth quarter of 22, which had benefited from some one-time high-margin revenue streams in the transportation segment, gross margin continued to expand increasing to 37.4% in Q4 of 2023, up from 31.7% in Q3 and 29.4% in Q4 of 2022. Transportation gross margin has now expanded for six consecutive quarters alongside the sequential revenue increases I mentioned earlier as we benefited from scale, improved utilization and easing of wage and fuel price pressures and a higher value mix of trips, along with the continued shift toward higher margin, at least our programs.
2023 年第四季調整後 EBITDA 為 2,260 萬美元,比第三季調整後 EBITDA 1,670 萬美元成長 35%,比去年第四季成長兩倍多,達到 680 萬美元。全年調整後 EBITDA 為 5,400 萬美元,比 2022 年的 4,130 萬美元增長 31%,是 2021 年調整後 EBITDA 的兩倍多。第四季調整後 EBITDA 利潤率為 11.4%,高於第三季的 8.9%,高於 2022 年第四季的 6.3%。事實上,第四季度調整後的 EBITDA 利潤率代表了自 2022 年第一季以來我們報告的最高水平,當時公司總收入的近三分之一來自利潤率相對較高的掩蓋新冠病毒檢測服務。2023年第四季的總毛利率為33.5%,較第三季的29.5%大幅上升,但低於2022年第四季39%的毛利率。2023 年第四季是年內利潤率最高的季度,略高於第二季度。第四季的毛利率較第三季的低於平均值出現強勁反彈,而第三季的毛利率受到最近第四季新專案啟動和投產導致成本增加的負面影響。雖然我們能夠維持第三季的收入水平,並且實際上進一步提高了收入水平,但隨著這些專案在今年前兩個月取得了長足的進步,我們能夠透過使加班成本和分包人工費用更接近其預期水準來提高利潤率。2024 年。我們已經看到這些領域的進一步改善,並相信我們應該會在 2024 年第一季看到毛利率的連續改善。2023 年第四季度,行動醫療領域的毛利率為 32.2%,而第三季度為 28.8%,22 年第四季為 43.9%,這得益於該領域一些一次性高利潤收入流。交通運輸板塊的毛利率持續擴大,從2022年第三季的31.7%和2022年第四季的29.4%增至2023年第四季的37.4%。運輸毛利率現已連續六個季度增長,收入也連續增長,因為我們受益於規模、利用率的提高、工資和燃油價格壓力的緩解以及更高價值的旅行組合,以及持續轉向更高的利潤率,至少我們的程序。
Looking at operating costs. Sg&a as a percentage of total revenues amounted to 27.6% in the fourth quarter of 2023, up from 24.8% in the third quarter, but much lower than the 38.1% in the fourth quarter of 2022 as revenues increased over the second half of 2023, we saw SG&A decline as a percentage of total revenues leading to operating margin expansion. We are also regularly reviewing our expense base for efficiency gains, particularly our non-field headcount during Q1 of 2024, we executed a targeted reduction in force, which resulted in some cost savings that will be realized as we move into Q2 and beyond.
看看營運成本。SG&A 佔總營收的百分比在 2023 年第四季達到 27.6%,高於第三季的 24.8%,但遠低於 2022 年第四季的 38.1%,因為營收在 2023 年下半年有所增加,我們看到SG&A 佔總收入的百分比下降,導致營業利潤率擴大。我們還定期審查我們的費用基礎以提高效率,特別是2024 年第一季的非現場人員數量,我們執行了有針對性的兵力削減,這導致了一些成本節省,這些成本節省將在我們進入第第二季及以後實現。
Turning to the balance sheet. As of December 31st, 2023, our total cash and cash equivalents, including restricted cash, was 72.2 million as compared to $67.3 million. As of the end of Q3, our accounts receivable continued to increase, reflecting the spike in revenues that we witnessed over the second half of 2023. This increase in accounts receivable is being driven by our government business, which features a very long initial payment cycle as we've discussed. However, as Lee mentioned earlier, in the fourth quarter, we began to receive payments for this work with an acceleration of these payments taking place since the beginning of the year, a significant proportion of the year-end accounts receivable have now been collected in the recent weeks.
轉向資產負債表。截至 2023 年 12 月 31 日,我們的現金及現金等價物總額(包括限制性現金)為 7,220 萬美元,去年同期為 6,730 萬美元。截至第三季末,我們的應收帳款持續增加,反映出我們在 2023 年下半年看到的收入激增。應收帳款的增加是由我們的政府業務推動的,正如我們所討論的,政府業務的特徵是初始付款週期很長。然而,正如李先生之前提到的,在第四季度,我們開始收到這項工作的付款,並且自年初以來這些付款的速度加快,目前年末應收賬款的很大一部分已收回最近幾週。
Looking at our project with New York City's apartment housing preservation development or HBD. as of today, we have collected nearly 80% of the year end 2023 accounts receivable for this project, and we are very close to being current on this project as we further work down this receivable, we expect the near term collections will be enough to drive our total cash balance higher in subsequent periods despite our ongoing working capital needs as we grow, the recent collections have allowed us to pay down the outstanding amounts on our credit line and the present outstanding balance is zero.
看看我們與紐約市公寓住房保護開發(HBD)的項目。截至今天,我們已經收回了該專案 2023 年底應收帳款的近 80%,隨著我們進一步處理該應收帳款,我們已經非常接近該專案的進展,我們預計近期收款將足以儘管隨著我們的發展,我們不斷需要營運資金,但最近的收款使我們能夠償還信貸額度上的未償還金額,並且目前的未償還餘額為零,從而推動我們在後續時期的總現金餘額更高。
Turning to our guidance and outlook for 2024, we anticipate continued strong demand from our copper customers for both mobile health and transportation services. We are forecasting that revenues for 2024 will be in the range of 720 million to 750 million. We anticipate quarterly revenues resembling the levels we saw in Q3 of 2023 throughout the year as any anticipated declines in margin related revenues in the second half of the year are expected to be offset by new programs and growth in other areas. We expect gross margins to come in above the levels of the full year 2023, much more in line with what we experienced in Q4. We expect to see adjusted EBITDA in the range of 80 to $85 million, with adjusted EBITDA margins expected to be solidly in the double digit area. We expect that full year 2024 adjusted EBITDA margins will be 250 to 300 basis points higher than the adjusted EBITDA margins we experienced over the course of the full year 2023.
談到我們對 2024 年的指導和展望,我們預計銅客戶對行動醫療和運輸服務的需求將持續強勁。我們預測 2024 年的營收將在 7.2 億至 7.5 億美元之間。我們預計全年季度收入與 2023 年第三季的水平類似,因為下半年利潤相關收入的任何預期下降預計將被新項目和其他領域的成長所抵消。我們預計毛利率將高於 2023 年全年的水平,與我們在第四季的經驗更加一致。我們預計調整後 EBITDA 在 8,000 至 8,500 萬美元之間,調整後 EBITDA 利潤率預計將穩定在兩位數區域。我們預計 2024 年全年調整後 EBITDA 利潤率將比 2023 年全年調整後 EBITDA 利潤率高出 250 至 300 個基點。
Finally, we expect to generate cash flow from operations of 65 million to 75 million in 2024.
最後,我們預計2024年營運產生的現金流為6500萬至7500萬。
At this point, I'd like to turn the call back over to the operator for Q&A. Operator, please go ahead.
此時,我想將電話轉回給接線生進行問答。接線員,請繼續。
Operator
Operator
Thank you. Ladies and gentlemen, we will now be conducting a question and answer session. If you'd like to ask a question, please press star and one on your telephone keypad. A confirmation tone will indicate that your line is in the question queue. You may press star two to Link's the question queue. We ask that you please limit yourself to one question and one follow-up for participants making use of speaker equipment. It may be necessary to pick up your handset before pressing the star cadence.
謝謝。女士們、先生們,我們現在將進行問答環節。如果您想提問,請按電話鍵盤上的星號和一。確認音將表示您的線路已在問題佇列中。您可以按星號二進入連結的問題佇列。對於使用揚聲器設備的參與者,我們要求您只提出一個問題和一項後續行動。在按星號節奏之前,可能需要拿起聽筒。
Our first question comes from Ryan MacDonald of Needham & Company. Please go ahead.
我們的第一個問題來自 Needham & Company 的 Ryan MacDonald。請繼續。
Ryan MacDonald - Analyst
Ryan MacDonald - Analyst
Thanks, for taking my questions and congrats on a really strong quarter and strong guidance for 24 here. It would be great to hear the sort of all the success and the update across sort of three sort of end market priorities. But as you're thinking about the and looking at the pipeline for 2024, where are you seeing maybe the most optimism across payers, health systems and sort of the government channel? And how do you expect that sort of the optimism to translate in terms of mix of revenues across those three segments for 24.
感謝您回答我的問題,並祝賀 24 季度的強勁表現和強有力的指導。很高興聽到所有成功以及三種終端市場優先事項的更新。但是,當您思考並審視 2024 年的管道時,您在付款人、衛生系統和某種政府管道中可能看到最樂觀的地方在哪裡?您如何看待這種樂觀情緒會轉化為 24 的這三個細分市場的收入組合。
Lee Bienstock - CEO
Lee Bienstock - CEO
Hey, Ryan, thanks so much for the question.
嘿,瑞安,非常感謝你的提問。
Great to speak with you. So I'm optimistic about all three. We have really strong pipeline with our hospital systems both in medical transportation and other mobile health opportunities. And I think those will continue to drive growth for us with hospital systems and also always optimistic about our work in the municipal space. I mentioned lots of the new geographies we really focused on in 2023. We're going to continue to submit 100 RFPs this year. And I think our win rate is going to stay consistent throughout this year as we seek opportunities leading those first to the hospital systems and our municipal work will continue to drive a lot of the growth this year.
很高興與你交談。所以我對這三者都持樂觀態度。我們的醫院系統在醫療運輸和其他行動醫療機會方面擁有非常強大的管道。我認為這些將繼續推動我們醫院系統的成長,並對我們在市政領域的工作始終保持樂觀。我提到了 2023 年我們真正關注的許多新地區。今年我們將繼續提交 100 份 RFP。我認為我們的勝率將在今年保持一致,因為我們尋求機會引導那些首先進入醫院系統的人,而我們的市政工作將繼續推動今年的大量成長。
And then I'm also very optimistic and very excited about our work with our insurance partners. I think that will continue to be the smaller piece of the business, but perhaps be the fastest growing.
我對我們與保險合作夥伴的合作也非常樂觀和興奮。我認為這仍將是該業務中較小的一部分,但可能是成長最快的部分。
And I think it will bear fruit in those later months and into sort of 2025 and beyond. But we're really laying a really great foundation with our insurance partners where we're able to drive results for our patients with them to help close care gaps to really bring care to patients that haven't seen a doctor in over a year, and we're really seeing great early success with that. And so I think you'll see us expand. And I think you'll also see us evolve those relationships. We signed our first partnership and we have others where we are going to be able to share the risk alongside our insurance partners as we drive down total cost and as we participate in helping improve health outcomes, then we're rewarded for that, which we're also very excited because we think we have a really strong opportunity to do that.
我認為它將在接下來的幾個月以及 2025 年及以後取得成果。但我們確實與我們的保險合作夥伴奠定了一個非常好的基礎,我們能夠與他們一起為我們的患者帶來成果,幫助縮小護理差距,真正為一年多沒有看過醫生的患者提供護理,我們確實看到了早期的巨大成功。所以我想你會看到我們的擴張。我想你也會看到我們發展這些關係。我們簽署了第一個合作夥伴關係,我們還有其他合作夥伴,當我們降低總成本並參與幫助改善健康結果時,我們將能夠與我們的保險合作夥伴分擔風險,然後我們會因此而獲得獎勵,我們我們也非常興奮,因為我們認為我們有一個非常好的機會做到這一點。
So we're really optimistic about all three to answer your question directly.
因此,我們對這三個人直接回答您的問題非常樂觀。
I think the first two will be continue to be the primary drivers of growth in 2024, but we're really laying a really great foundation, and you'll see the growth play out in 2024 and beyond with our insurance partners.
我認為前兩者將繼續成為 2024 年成長的主要驅動力,但我們確實正在奠定一個非常好的基礎,您將看到我們的保險合作夥伴在 2024 年及以後實現成長。
Ryan MacDonald - Analyst
Ryan MacDonald - Analyst
Really helpful color there, Leigh, thanks a lot. And maybe for my follow-up for Norm. I'm really impressed by the sort of the magnitude of margin expansion being built into the initial guide for fiscal 24. And it sounds like there's some some nice sustainable gross margin expansion. But maybe just to double-click on, as you think about that, I think implied 250 basis points at the midpoint of expansion on adjusted EBITDA margin in 24, how are you thinking about the balance of mix of sort of gross margin expansion versus sort of continued our OpEx efficiency?
那裡的顏色真的很有幫助,Leigh,非常感謝。也許是我對 Norm 的後續行動。24 財年初始指南中所包含的利潤率擴張幅度給我留下了深刻的印象。聽起來似乎有一些不錯的可持續毛利率擴張。但也許只是雙擊,當你想到這一點時,我認為暗示 24 年調整後 EBITDA 利潤率擴張的中點為 250 個基點,你如何考慮毛利率擴張與毛利率擴張的混合平衡我們的營運支出效率如何持續?
So Ryan, I mean there's a mathematical aspect to it as well because our exit rate EBITDA margin was about 11.5%. And that compares to the full year, which was about 8.9%. So what we're really saying is that we expect that that operating leverage that we gain in the back part of the year will be sustained. We think that the gains in gross margin that we saw in Q4 compared to Q3 will be get will be sustained. So if we simply were to them, if we were to experience the same type of EBITDA margins that we did in Q4 across the year that you're actually 200, 50, 300 basis point improvement. So here and there there are some areas where we think there's some incremental improvement as we go. We just want to get too far ahead of ourselves in terms of our assumption on the gross margin.
Ryan,我的意思是這也有一個數學方面的問題,因為我們的退出率 EBITDA 利潤率約為 11.5%。相比之下,全年成長率約為 8.9%。因此,我們真正想說的是,我們預計今年下半年獲得的營運槓桿將持續下去。我們認為,與第三季相比,第四季的毛利率成長將持續下去。因此,如果我們簡單地對他們來說,如果我們要體驗到與第四季度相同類型的 EBITDA 利潤率,那麼實際上會提高 200、50、300 個基點。因此,我們認為在某些領域,我們會不斷地進行一些漸進式的改進。我們只是想在毛利率假設方面太過超前。
Norman Rosberg - CFO
Norman Rosberg - CFO
Appreciate the color we exited.
欣賞我們退出的顏色。
We exited the year at a good rate. I mean it was big quarter.
我們以良好的速度結束了這一年。我的意思是這是一個重要的季度。
Operator
Operator
Thank you.
謝謝。
Our next question comes from David Lawson of BTRG. Please go ahead.
我們的下一個問題來自 BTRG 的 David Lawson。請繼續。
Hi.
你好。
David Larsen - Analyst
David Larsen - Analyst
Congrats on the quarter. Can you maybe talk about these value-based care hires that you mentioned in the press report, but it seems to me like the managed care plans AMI Doduco is very sort of well suited to serve them. In my view, it's great to have data systems like a lot of health tech companies have, but it's another thing to actually do something with them on it seems like you're on the right path and then I could tell a little more color there would be great. Thanks very much.
恭喜本季。您能否談談您在新聞報導中提到的這些基於價值的護理僱用人員,但在我看來,管理式護理計劃 AMI Doduco 非常適合為他們服務。在我看來,擁有像許多健康科技公司那樣的數據系統是一件很棒的事情,但實際上用它們做一些事情是另一回事,看起來你走在正確的道路上,然後我可以在那裡告訴更多的顏色會很好。非常感謝。
Sure. I David, David, appreciate the question. So we continue to add to our talent. We really made some incredible hires at the back half of 2023 on you alluded this Young, who joined as our VP of our payer programs, are really leading that business segment with our Chief Product Officer and others in the space and our CEO of our Clinical Practice Group, Dr. Pal, really of building a wonderful team there with rich experience, deep experience and young joins us directly from a CVS. So CVS, I know it's a really great experience and and he is going to help really build that business with us.
當然。我大衛,大衛,很欣賞這個問題。因此,我們不斷增加我們的人才。我們在2023 年下半年確實進行了一些令人難以置信的招聘,您提到了這位年輕的人,他作為我們的付款人計劃副總裁加入,與我們的首席產品官和該領域的其他人以及我們的臨床執行長一起真正領導了該業務部門Practice Group的Pal博士確實在那裡建立了一支出色的團隊,經驗豐富,經驗豐富,而且年輕,直接從CVS加入我們。所以 CVS,我知道這是一次非常棒的經歷,他將幫助我們真正建立這項業務。
We also added to our government program business with the great hire Jen, who joins us formally as a Chief Operating Officer of Citi harvest. And so we continue to add to our team. We have a wonderful, wonderful team of hard-working team, really smart team of people with different points of experience and really helping us build out the programs. And as we mentioned, our value-based arrangements is something we're particularly very excited about because we really feel like our tech platform that helps us optimize the right clinician in the right vehicle with the right tools with the right tech in the home of a patient and making the care way more accessible on, I think will really drive improved health outcomes, and we're seeing that play out. And obviously, as patients health improves, then the cost for the overall system and the cost for our insurance partners goes down.
我們還聘請了 Jen 來加入我們的政府計劃業務,他正式加入我們,擔任花旗收穫的首席營運長。所以我們繼續增加我們的團隊。我們擁有一支非常非常出色的勤奮團隊,非常聰明的團隊,他們有不同的經驗,並且真正幫助我們制定了專案。正如我們所提到的,我們基於價值的安排是我們特別非常興奮的事情,因為我們真的覺得我們的技術平台可以幫助我們在合適的車輛上使用合適的工具和合適的技術在合適的家庭中優化合適的臨床醫生。我認為,為患者提供更方便的護理方式,將真正推動健康結果的改善,我們正在看到這一點。顯然,隨著患者健康狀況的改善,整個系統的成本以及我們的保險合作夥伴的成本都會下降。
Lee Bienstock - CEO
Lee Bienstock - CEO
And so it's a wonderful experience for the patient where we bring care to them.
因此,我們為患者提供護理,這對他們來說是一次美妙的經歷。
We also help them become much healthier. And then everybody wins in that scenario. And so we're very, very excited about it. It really allows us to leverage our mobile capabilities that we've built out now over eight years. It allows us to leverage our tech platform that's helped us optimize the routing of almost 1,000 vehicles. We have operating every single day throughout the U.S. in the UK and then allows us to bring care in innovative ways with our with our wonderful clinicians in our clinical practice group to really bring on better health outcomes to communities. And we're seeing that play out in multiple states now. So we're excited to continue to invest there. We're excited to continue to focus. And we think as we enter into more and more value-based arrangements, we think that there's a lot of opportunity for us there.
我們也幫助他們變得更健康。然後在這種情況下每個人都會獲勝。所以我們對此非常非常興奮。它確實使我們能夠利用我們八年來建立的移動功能。它使我們能夠利用我們的技術平台來幫助我們優化近 1,000 輛車輛的路線。我們每天都在美國和英國開展業務,然後與臨床實踐小組中優秀的臨床醫生一起以創新的方式提供護理,真正為社區帶來更好的健康結果。我們現在看到這種情況在多個州發生。因此,我們很高興繼續在那裡投資。我們很高興能夠繼續關注。我們認為,隨著我們進行越來越多基於價值的安排,我們認為那裡有很多機會。
Great.
偉大的。
Ryan MacDonald - Analyst
Ryan MacDonald - Analyst
Thanks very much. And then for the city of New York deal of the migrant services piece, if that's trending at 400 million annually at its peak. What are your expectations for, say the back half of 24 and into 2005 will not turn into like 150 million. And in my view, it's like that would be Byron. It's kind of been a little bit of a resource drag, if you will. I'm just any more thoughts there would be very helpful.
非常感謝。然後是紐約市的移民服務交易,如果高峰時期每年達到 4 億美元的話。你的期望是什麼,假設24後半段到2005年不會變成1.5億。在我看來,拜倫就是這樣。如果你願意的話,這有點資源拖累。我只是還有更多的想法,那會很有幫助。
Thank you.
謝謝。
Lee Bienstock - CEO
Lee Bienstock - CEO
Of course.
當然。
So we modeled in a moderating amount of revenue from the asylum seeker work as the year progresses. So as the quarters go through 2024, the asylum seeker revenue will moderate and decline as the year progresses. And then, of course, that's going to be replaced by other programs and other investments we're making and other customers that we're growing with. And so that's how we modeled the year. That's how we arrived at our guidance. It was a we are very thoughtful about the guidance that we're giving we have line of sight, as you know, that's how we set our guidance. And and so that's that is how we factored everything in we think of as Norm mentioned, quarterly revenues are going to be pretty consistent with what we saw in Q3 of 23, and that will stay relatively consistent throughout this year. And then as I mentioned with migrant related revenues, sort of trailing off and other projects take its place for 2025 that thinks through the year for that, we'll give more information on 2025 as we get closer to 2025.
因此,隨著時間的推移,我們對尋求庇護者工作的收入進行了適度的建模。因此,隨著 2024 年各季度的到來,尋求庇護者的收入將隨著時間的推移而放緩和下降。然後,當然,這將被我們正在進行的其他計劃和其他投資以及與我們一起成長的其他客戶所取代。這就是我們對這一年建模的方式。這就是我們得出指導意見的方式。我們對我們提供的指導非常深思熟慮,我們有視線,如你所知,這就是我們設定指導的方式。這就是我們如何考慮 Norm 提到的所有因素,季度收入將與我們在 23 年第三季看到的情況非常一致,並且今年將保持相對一致。然後,正如我所提到的,與移民相關的收入有所下降,其他項目將在 2025 年取代它,考慮到這一年,隨著 2025 年的臨近,我們將提供有關 2025 年的更多資訊。
Great.
偉大的。
Mike Cole - VIce President of IR
Mike Cole - VIce President of IR
Thanks and congrats on a good quarter.
感謝並祝賀您度過了一個美好的季度。
Lee Bienstock - CEO
Lee Bienstock - CEO
Thanks.
謝謝。
Okay.
好的。
Operator
Operator
Our next question comes from Mike Latimore of Northland Capital Markets. Please go ahead. Thanks.
我們的下一個問題來自 Northland Capital Markets 的 Mike Latimore。請繼續。謝謝。
Mike Latimore - Analyst
Mike Latimore - Analyst
Yes, congrats on the quarter. I like the stat on a number of ER visits prevented those rate, Tom.
是的,恭喜這個季度。湯姆,我喜歡急診室就診次數的統計數據,阻止了這些比率。
Ryan MacDonald - Analyst
Ryan MacDonald - Analyst
So on the just on the guidance a little bit from that should we assume EBITDA margin is similar each quarter, or does it grow throughout the year?
因此,就指引而言,我們是否應該假設 EBITDA 利潤率每季都相似,還是全年都在成長?
Mike Cole - VIce President of IR
Mike Cole - VIce President of IR
And then in terms of the new business that will fill in for the declining migraine care.
然後是新業務,將填補偏頭痛治療的下滑。
Ryan MacDonald - Analyst
Ryan MacDonald - Analyst
Is that business you've already won?
那是你已經贏得的生意嗎?
Mike Cole - VIce President of IR
Mike Cole - VIce President of IR
Or is there some of that in the uptick kind of go out?
還是外出活動增加?
Norman Rosberg - CFO
Norman Rosberg - CFO
I'd like to know, and I'll take that first one.
我想知道,我會選第一個。
I think that what you saw in terms of the EBITDA margin, which we broke out for Q4, is a pretty good proxy to use as we go through the quarters. Realistically, you're going to have some quarters at a little bit higher, a little bit lower and there's going to be a mix of where the gross margin goes versus the SG&A percentage. But but essentially it should be pretty consistent throughout the year.
我認為您所看到的 EBITDA 利潤率(我們在第四季度公佈)是一個非常好的指標,可以在我們整個季度中使用。實際上,有些季度的價格會稍高一些,有些季度會低一些,而且毛利率與銷售管理費用百分比的變化情況也會有所不同。但本質上它全年應該相當一致。
And then I Mike, regarding the question on the pipeline and the revenues, all of the revenues that we are looking at right now for this year are all with our current customers or projects that we've already won some. And of course, we some in new RFPs every week, we work on growing our sales pipeline every day. And so as new things come in, that will be additional opportunities for us.
然後,麥克,關於管道和收入的問題,我們現在看到的今年的所有收入都來自我們現有的客戶或我們已經贏得了一些的項目。當然,我們每週都會發布新的 RFP,我們每天都在努力擴大我們的銷售管道。因此,隨著新事物的出現,這對我們來說將是額外的機會。
Great.
偉大的。
Mike Cole - VIce President of IR
Mike Cole - VIce President of IR
And then where you can see the employee count going this year like what do you expect to be renewed by year end?
然後你可以在哪裡看到今年的員工人數,例如你預計到年底會更新多少?
Yes. So we have a wonderful team. It grew significantly over the course of 2023. I think our employee count will stay relatively flat for this year. I think we built out our team. Our employee count is consistent with our revenues from Q. three Q. four. And so we really built out the team. So we feel like our current team size right now is is optimized and it will be consistent throughout this year.
是的。所以我們有一支很棒的團隊。它在 2023 年顯著增長。我認為今年我們的員工人數將保持相對穩定。我認為我們建立了我們的團隊。我們的員工人數與第三季第四季的收入一致。所以我們真的建立了團隊。因此,我們覺得我們目前的團隊規模已經優化,並且今年將保持一致。
Thanks a lot.
多謝。
Operator
Operator
Our next question comes from Sarah James of Cantor Fitzgerald. You may go ahead.
我們的下一個問題來自康托·菲茨杰拉德的莎拉·詹姆斯。你可以繼續。
Alicia, you line is open.
艾莉西亞,您的路線已開通。
You can ask your question.
你可以問你的問題。
Sarah James - Analyst
Sarah James - Analyst
Sorry about that. I wanted to get a little bit more color on the 24 revenue guide changed since January to drive the increase? And can you unpack the mechanics of what you're thinking about New York HPD. and the trail down. So like just mechanically, how does that work after May? And do you guys keep operating? Or is there an assumption that there's multi-vendor at that point?
對於那個很抱歉。我想對自 1 月以來更改的 24 個收入指南進行更多說明以推動成長?您能否解釋一下您對紐約 HPD 的看法?和向下的小路。那麼就像機械式一樣,五月之後該如何運作?你們還在繼續經營嗎?或是否假設此時存在多個供應商?
Yes. So in terms of what's changed since the January revenue guide.
是的。就自一月份收入指南以來發生的變化而言。
Lee Bienstock - CEO
Lee Bienstock - CEO
So so we and I say are great to hear from you.
因此,我們很高興收到您的來信。
As you say, I should start off with, I think, to answer the question on the revenue guide. When we initially provided that sort of initial revenue guide in January, we said that revenues would be greater than 700 million. We really wanted to share a number that we had good clarity on and that we felt very confident and we felt at the time that that was very much needed all the while we have built a model where we have line of sight to all of our customers, all of our projects of the revenue that's expected on a monthly basis. We run a very very exhaustive process with all of our market leaders with all of our project leaders to our forecast for this year. And then we meet with every single one of them and those meetings were going on at that exact time. And so as we refine that forecast, as we work with those market leaders to really have good line of sight into the revenue we're expecting for this year. That's how we've updated guidance now during the call to share. And so we revised it upwards. We share that it was going to be greater than 700 million. Our share in that range is going to be 700 to $750 million. And that's the process we've always followed and we've always given specific guidance exactly on this first call of the year. And so we wanted to follow that Qinnan.
正如你所說,我認為我應該先回答有關收入指南的問題。當我們一月份最初提供此類初始收入指南時,我們說收入將超過 7 億美元。我們真的很想分享一個我們非常清楚的數字,我們感到非常有信心,我們當時覺得這是非常需要的,同時我們已經建立了一個模型,讓我們的所有客戶都能看到,我們所有項目的每月預期收入。我們與所有市場領導者和所有專案領導者一起運行了一個非常非常詳盡的流程,以實現我們今年的預測。然後我們會見了他們中的每一位,而這些會議正是在那個時間進行的。因此,當我們完善這項預測時,當我們與這些市場領導者合作時,我們才能真正了解我們今年的預期收入。這就是我們現在在分享電話會議期間更新指導的方式。所以我們向上修改了它。我們一致認為這個數字將超過 7 億。我們在該範圍內的份額將為 7 億至 7.5 億美元。這就是我們一直遵循的流程,我們總是在今年的第一次電話會議上提供具體指導。於是我們就想跟著那個秦南。
Great internal promotion of book ahead.
提前預訂的內部促銷。
Erica, please.
艾麗卡,請。
Yes, no, I was just going to restate the question is it seems like you've got it differently.
是的,不,我只是想重申這個問題,看來你的理解有所不同。
So in terms of the HPD., you're referring to the migrant related revenues. We we baked in that that will the micro related revenues will moderate as the year progresses. We have various different models on relating to the migrant revenues, and we're continuing to help the city through the humanitarian crisis. And so we did forecast in that market related revenues would decline in the back half of the year, and we'll continue to update on how that progresses throughout the year.
因此,就 HPD 而言,您指的是與移民相關的收入。我們認為,隨著時間的推移,微觀相關收入將會放緩。我們有各種不同的與移民收入相關的模型,我們將繼續幫助這座城市度過人道危機。因此,我們確實預測市場相關收入將在今年下半年下降,我們將繼續更新全年的進展。
Got it.
知道了。
And last question is just going to be on the EBITDA margin guidance. If I look at the range, it sort of implies at the high end, you guys would keep where you are at 4Q, but it had almost a little conservative given that you have a bunch of contracts maturing. And also, can you talk about some of the moving pieces that you think about and the margin progression from 23 to 24?
最後一個問題是關於 EBITDA 利潤率指引。如果我看一下這個範圍,這有點意味著在高端,你們會保持第四季度的水平,但考慮到你們有一堆合約即將到期,它幾乎有點保守。另外,您能談談您認為的一些變化因素以及從 23 到 24 的利潤率進展嗎?
Yes. I think on the on the EBITDA guide, you you mentioned something very important which is we do have projects that as they mature, we're able to optimize and expand the margins. But we're also balancing that with some of the new initiatives we're growing and the new investments we're making, particularly in the insurance payer business, launching new markets, launching new geographies, adding capabilities and making sure that we delivery a fantastic, fantastic patient and customer service experience for the insurance partners that we're working with. And we're really investing deeply there. New vehicles. We're building out new product features. We're bringing on wonderful clinicians. We're investing deeply in training for them. We're investing in new and new technologies and devices and integrating all of them together. And so as you mentioned, we continue to scale the programs we have, but we are going to be continue to be in growth mode are going to continue to be investing in all the areas of our business, particularly in that insurance payer business and that's where you see sort of a blending of those EBITDA margins.
是的。我認為在 EBITDA 指南中,您提到了一些非常重要的事情,那就是我們確實有一些項目,隨著它們的成熟,我們能夠優化和擴大利潤率。但我們也在平衡這一點與我們正在發展的一些新舉措和我們正在進行的新投資,特別是在保險付款人業務方面,開拓新市場、推出新地區、增加能力並確保我們交付為我們合作的保險合作夥伴提供了非常棒的病患和客戶服務體驗。我們確實在那裡進行了深入投資。新車。我們正在開發新的產品功能。我們正在聘請優秀的臨床醫生。我們正在大力投資他們的培訓。我們正在投資新技術和設備,並將它們整合在一起。正如您所提到的,我們將繼續擴大我們現有的計劃,但我們將繼續處於成長模式,將繼續投資於我們業務的所有領域,特別是保險支付業務,這就是你會看到這些EBITDA 利潤率的混合。
Thank you.
謝謝。
Operator
Operator
Our next question comes from Richard Close of Canaccord. Please go ahead.
我們的下一個問題來自 Canaccord 的理查德·克洛斯。請繼續。
Mike Cole - VIce President of IR
Mike Cole - VIce President of IR
Break of things.
打破事物。
Richard Close - Analyst
Richard Close - Analyst
Congratulations on a strong year.
恭喜您度過了強勁的一年。
Maybe Lee, on the national payer partnership, the value-based care agreement that you announced here this morning. That's a new any more details you can provide? Is this just a pilot? Or is this like a set number of lives of certain state? Any kind of economics that you can share with respect to the risk component?
也許李,關於全國支付者合作夥伴關係,您今天早上在這裡宣布的基於價值的護理協議。這是一個新的,你能提供更多細節嗎?這只是一個飛行員嗎?或者說這就像某種狀態下的一定數量的生命?關於風險成分,您可以分享任何類型的經濟學嗎?
Yes.
是的。
So we're going to be sharing more and more as the year progresses with these contracts, we really want to make sure that we get them off the ground. We've already operating a number of them and really they're there. They start with essentially identifying our work with our health plan partners, of which we have many. We've announced elements in health first and Emblem in LA Care and we have others that we'll be announcing. So we're already working with many of them. We're working in different geographies, as I mentioned, and it really starts with identifying the health plan, identifying patients that are hard to reach identifying patients that haven't seen their doctor and that have chronic conditions, in some cases, have more than one chronic condition. And in some cases, we go and visit a patient and they know they have one chronic condition and health plan or they have one chronic condition, but by going and seeing them because again, they haven't seen a doctor in over a year. We're able to identify that they have more than one chronic condition, which obviously helps stratify risk and helps manage patient population. But more accurately.
因此,隨著時間的推移,我們將越來越多地分享這些合同,我們真的希望確保我們能讓它們落地。我們已經運營了其中一些,並且確實存在。他們首先從本質上確定我們與我們的健康計劃合作夥伴的合作,我們有很多這樣的合作夥伴。我們已經宣布了“健康第一”和“洛杉磯護理”中的徽章元素,我們還將宣布其他元素。因此,我們已經與其中許多人合作。正如我所提到的,我們在不同的地區開展工作,這實際上是從確定健康計劃開始,確定難以接觸到的患者,確定沒有看過醫生的患者以及患有慢性病的患者,在某些情況下,有更多的患者比一種慢性病。在某些情況下,我們去看望患者,他們知道自己有一種慢性病和健康計劃,或者他們有一種慢性病,但透過去看他們,還是因為他們已經一年多沒有看過醫生了。我們能夠確定他們患有不只一種慢性病,這顯然有助於對風險進行分層並有助於管理患者群體。但更準確地說。
Lee Bienstock - CEO
Lee Bienstock - CEO
And so it really starts with that.
所以一切都是從那開始的。
We go into the home, we engage the patient and we close a care gap.
我們走進患者家中,與患者互動並縮小照護差距。
That's really where it starts.
這才是真正的開始。
And then it evolved to where we can become the primary care provider for that patient.
然後它發展到我們可以成為該患者的初級保健提供者。
And then as we're becoming the primary care provider and as we're able to perhaps enroll them in RPM and virtual care management.
然後,當我們成為初級保健提供者時,我們也許能夠讓他們參與 RPM 和虛擬護理管理。
Now we're getting readings from them. We're getting their blood pressure perhaps every day or every other day. We're getting their weight perhaps every day or every other day, we're able to monitor their health and then we're able to intervene when needed. And so now you can see how we can really have a material impact on that patient's health. And then we want to make sure that we're entering into value-based arrangements and the risk sharing in a really intelligent way.
現在我們正在從他們那裡得到讀數。我們可能每天或每隔一天測量他們的血壓。我們可能每天或每隔一天測量他們的體重,我們能夠監測他們的健康狀況,然後我們能夠在需要時進行幹預。現在您可以看到我們如何真正對患者的健康產生實質影響。然後我們希望確保我們以真正明智的方式進行基於價值的安排和風險分擔。
And so that's the way we really approach the market.
這就是我們真正進入市場的方式。
And it's the way we're really approaching our work with our payer partners to make sure that first and foremost, we're helping close care gaps first and foremost, bringing care to patients that haven't been receiving it first and foremost, where he will identify the risk level of the patient, the RAP score, and then we're able to perhaps become the primary care provider and then and then really grows from there.
這就是我們與付款合作夥伴真正開展合作的方式,以確保首先我們正在幫助縮小護理差距,為尚未接受護理的患者提供護理,其中他將確定患者的風險水平、RAP 評分,然後我們也許能夠成為初級保健提供者,然後從那裡真正成長。
Well, I guess as a follow up, what's the revenue model like for these arrangements? And is the risk component? Is that like you know, at the end of the year, you see how you performed and is there a lump sum bonus? Just trying to get a better feel of what exactly the revenue model is for this business. Obviously, it's small now. And if you want to tell us how big the insurance business is, that would be helpful. But I'm just trying to get a grasp of that as this business grows over time.
好吧,我想作為後續,這些安排的收入模式是什麼樣的呢?風險成分是什麼?就像你知道的那樣,在年底,你會看到自己的表現,是否有一次性獎金?只是想更了解該業務的收入模式到底是什麼。顯然,現在還小。如果您想告訴我們保險業務有多大,那會很有幫助。但隨著這項業務隨著時間的推移而不斷發展,我只是想了解這一點。
And so it's great, a great question. So our arrangements essentially start as a care gap arrangement once we reach a critical mass of patients, then we have the ability to and share and upside risks only. And obviously the risks quotient is on the value sharing is mitigated in that situation where we only have upside benefit. And then we have the opportunity to progress into upside for risk upside and downside risks. And so there's sort of a degradation there in terms of the economics. We get a care gap closure rate when we go into the home or do a care gap virtually, in some cases, we close care gaps, we're able to do so virtually when we need to go into the home, we get a care gap rate. And then as we become the primary care provider as we start to share risk, we take a percentage of the medical loss ratio essentially. And those are negotiated with the with the payer partners, and that's the way that business is structured.
所以這是一個很棒的問題。因此,我們的安排本質上是從護理缺口安排開始的,一旦我們達到了臨界數量的患者,那麼我們就有能力分擔和分擔上行風險。顯然,在我們只有上行收益的情況下,價值共享的風險係數會減輕。然後我們就有機會進入上行風險和下行風險。因此,從經濟角度來看,存在某種程度的退化。當我們進入家中或虛擬地進行護理差距時,我們會得到護理差距閉合率,在某些情況下,我們會縮小護理差距,當我們需要進入家中時,我們能夠以虛擬方式這樣做,我們會得到護理缺口率。然後,當我們成為初級保健提供者並開始分擔風險時,我們基本上會收取一定比例的醫療損失率。這些是與付款合作夥伴協商的,這就是業務的結構方式。
Operator
Operator
Okay.
好的。
And one final question for Norm.
最後還有一個問題想問 Norm。
With respect to the lease rate model on trends, transportation, can you give us any update of where lease rate stands in terms of the percentage of maybe the transportation revenue in the fourth quarter.
關於趨勢、運輸方面的租賃率模型,您能否向我們提供有關租賃率在第四季度運輸收入中所佔百分比的最新情況。
So it's still it's still probably about half of what we do, maybe even lower in some markets.
所以它仍然可能是我們所做的事情的一半左右,在某些市場甚至可能更低。
Norman Rosberg - CFO
Norman Rosberg - CFO
And I think that's an important.
我認為這很重要。
It's a good question is an important thing to address as we've been talking for quite some time going back, probably your point about how we're sort of phasing out via the fee for service. But if anything happens sort of on the weight of phasing it out, which is that we find that our APC.s, which we measure and we report upon, which is our average price per trip and some of the other metrics like utilization around the fee for service business have improved the improvement that you've seen, the six sequential quarters of margin improvement on the transport side have not occurred as much because of the fact that we've done more lease tower than fee for service. It's happened because the fee for service has become much more profitable business and for a lot of focus there, a lot of things are moving in the right direction. So I would say, again, as we as we tried to negotiate new contracts, but we're certainly moving towards a least our model. But from my perspective, the fee-for-service part of the business is always going to be somewhat significant and it's going to be a profitable driver of the business.
這是一個很好的問題,也是一個需要解決的重要問題,因為我們已經討論了相當長一段時間了,也許你的觀點是我們如何透過服務費逐步取消。但如果有什麼事情發生在逐步淘汰它的權重上,那就是我們發現我們的 APC,我們測量並報告,這是我們每次旅行的平均價格以及一些其他指標,例如周圍的利用率服務業務費用改善了您所看到的改善,運輸方面連續六個季度的利潤率改善並沒有那麼大,因為我們所做的租賃塔比服務費用更多。之所以發生這種情況,是因為服務費已經成為更有利可圖的業務,而且由於人們對那裡的大量關注,很多事情都在朝著正確的方向發展。所以我想說,當我們試圖談判新合約時,我們肯定會至少朝著我們的模式邁進。但從我的角度來看,業務的按服務收費部分總是相當重要,並且它將成為業務的盈利驅動力。
Having said that, when you look at the margins that we saw at this point to point, this out a bit of the margins that we saw for transport in the fourth quarter, about 37%.
話雖如此,當你看看我們此時此刻看到的利潤率時,你會發現,這超出了我們在第四季度看到的運輸業利潤率,大約 37%。
I would say that was represented us particularly well in a couple of things happened that that maybe has some outlier margin step, I would say is the sort of the run rate of the margin going forward.
我想說,這在發生的幾件事中特別好地代表了我們,這些事情可能有一些異常的保證金步驟,我想說的是未來保證金的運行率。
I think that number is closer to 34, 35%, but it's so much, much higher than it had been your earlier.
我認為這個數字接近 34%、35%,但比您之前的數字高得多。
One is in the upper 20s. So that's one of those things that's going to sort of moderate itself as we go into into 2024, but the story both on the revenue side and the margin side, but the transport business is exceedingly healthy.
其中一個是20多歲。因此,隨著我們進入 2024 年,這種情況將會有所緩解,但無論是收入方面還是利潤方面,運輸業務都非常健康。
Okay.
好的。
Thank you very much.
非常感謝。
Operator
Operator
Our next question comes from David Grossman of Stifel. Please go ahead.
我們的下一個問題來自 Stifel 的 David Grossman。請繼續。
Okay, thank you.
好的謝謝。
David Grossman - Analyst
David Grossman - Analyst
I just wanted to follow up on a couple of questions that have been asked already and the first was if you think about the mobile health business, just back of the envelope, it would appear at least that if you back out the HPD. contract that you're assuming probably north of 30% growth for the residual. So first, is that math sound right? And then secondly, when you look at that, that's that assumption, the 30% growth, if you have decent visibility on that today. Maybe you could just give us some sense of where the visibility is on that kind of non HPD. mobile growth outlook for 24?
我只是想跟進幾個已經被問到的問題,第一個問題是,如果你考慮一下行動醫療業務,簡單來說,如果你退出 HPD,至少會出現這樣的情況。您假設剩餘成長率可能超過 30%。首先,這個數學聽起來正確嗎?其次,當你看到這一點時,這就是假設,即 30% 的增長,如果你今天對此有足夠的了解的話。也許您可以讓我們了解一下這種非 HPD 的可見性。 24 行動成長前景如何?
Norman Rosberg - CFO
Norman Rosberg - CFO
Yes, it is somewhat up.
是的,有點上升。
And on that, I think the first thing is that part of our guidance there, I'm not sure we're exactly at the same point in terms of our expectation for how the HPD. revenues evolve like we do. Definitely, as we pointed out, we don't expect it to back up a little bit. But as the year goes on. As we get closer to the end of the contract, we feel that the drop-off will not be as abrupt as maybe we might have thought in the past. So having said that, I don't know that backs into a 30% growth on the on the on the mobile health side. But it's obviously a pretty robust growth number it will be higher than the growth rate of the overall revenues that we're putting out here.
對此,我認為第一件事是我們的指導部分,我不確定我們對 HPD 的期望是否完全一致。收入像我們一樣不斷變化。當然,正如我們所指出的,我們並不期望它會有所回升。但隨著時間的推移。隨著合約接近結束,我們覺得下降不會像我們過去想像的那麼突然。話雖如此,我不知道行動醫療方面是否會達到 30% 的成長。但這顯然是一個相當強勁的成長數字,它將高於我們在這裡公佈的總收入的成長率。
So it's going to become a higher proportion of the total we have we have pretty good visibility into it.
因此,它將在我們擁有的總數中佔據更高的比例,我們對此有很好的了解。
I mean, there's not a big go-get number that's in there or anything we talk about in our number for 2024 is organic. So if we do any acquisitions, which is always a possibility, but that's not that's a part of how we get there.
我的意思是,其中並沒有一個大的目標數字,或者我們在 2024 年的數字中談論的任何內容都是有機的。因此,如果我們進行任何收購,這總是有可能的,但這不是我們實現這一目標的一部分。
I think we have a reasonable amount of visibility into that.
我認為我們對此有一定的了解。
I mean I'm looking at it from a pure numbers perspective unless you offer anything from what's going on on the ground.
我的意思是,我是從純粹的數字角度來看待它,除非你提供任何實際情況的資訊。
Yes, I think, David, you're you're in the ballpark in terms of the growth rate for the rest of the business. Different pieces are growing at different rates. But as Norm mentioned, we have some we have models that that have the micro revenue declining in the back half of the year. And then other projects are coming in increasing in growth as the year progresses. So the growth rate will continue to I think that the Q3 level we saw last year, consistent with that. And then as migrant base other stuff we're going to come in and that will obviously boost the growth rates of those other things that are coming right?
是的,我認為,大衛,就其他業務的成長率而言,您處於大致水平。不同的部分以不同的速度成長。但正如 Norm 所提到的,我們有一些模型的微收入在下半年下降。隨著時間的推移,其他項目的成長也不斷增加。因此,我認為成長率將繼續保持去年第三季的水平,與此一致。然後,作為移民基礎,我們將加入其他東西,這顯然會提高其他即將出現的東西的成長率,對嗎?
Mike Cole - VIce President of IR
Mike Cole - VIce President of IR
Maybe one way to think about it really is maybe if you could give us a little more color on the nature of the deals maybe that are in the Mobile Pipeline, but not in the guide on in terms of, you know, the nature of the contracts, the timing and if you can share magnitude, just to give us a sense of what you're seeing in the pipeline with some of these newer pieces of business?
也許思考這個問題的一種方法是,如果你能給我們更多關於交易性質的信息,這些交易可能是在移動管道中,但不是在指南中,你知道,交易的性質合約、時間安排以及您是否可以分享規模,只是為了讓我們了解您在這些新業務中看到的情況?
Yes.
是的。
So we have a we have we continue to have very similar deals and projects in the pipeline that we've always had. A lot of the medical transportation deals in the pipeline are very similar in nature. They're identical to our least our arrangements that we have today. And we're just continuing to do more of those and more of those deals we're doing doing more of those partnerships with more hospital systems or expanding to additional hospitals that our current hospital systems have additional locations. So those will continue or they look the same as they as they have for us. We've seen success with it it's working and the contracts do really well with our partners. They align incentives really, really well. And on the municipal side, it's going to continue to be. And while we're going to be more and more thoughtful on the municipal side, I should share that. So are projects on the municipal side have historically been relating to access to vaccines, infectious disease management we're seeing more and more we're responding and having success and health coaching, bringing access to underserved populations, particularly Medicaid populations and other populations that don't have access to care in munis and municipalities that have health care deserts, municipalities have health care deserts. So we're helping to bring care to that. We've always done really well. There are the access that we bring has really helped those underserved communities. And we continue to see success with those projects and they'll continue.
因此,我們一直在進行非常相似的交易和項目。許多正在醞釀中的醫療運輸交易本質上非常相似。它們與我們今天的安排是一樣的。我們只是繼續做更多這樣的事情和更多的交易,我們正在與更多的醫院系統建立更多的合作夥伴關係,或者擴展到我們目前的醫院系統擁有更多地點的更多醫院。所以這些將會繼續下去,或者它們看起來和我們看到的一樣。我們已經看到它的成功,它正在發揮作用,並且與我們的合作夥伴簽訂的合約非常順利。他們非常非常好地調整激勵措施。在市政方面,這種情況將持續下去。雖然我們在市政方面會越來越周到,但我應該分享這一點。市政方面的計畫歷來與獲得疫苗、傳染病管理有關,我們看到越來越多的我們正在做出反應並取得成功並提供健康指導,為服務不足的人群,特別是醫療補助人群和其他需要醫療補助的人群提供服務。在有醫療保健沙漠的市政當局和城市無法獲得醫療服務,城市有醫療保健沙漠。因此,我們正在幫助解決這個問題。我們一直都做得很好。我們帶來的訪問確實幫助了那些服務不足的社區。我們繼續看到這些項目取得成功,並且它們將繼續下去。
Lee Bienstock - CEO
Lee Bienstock - CEO
We're getting more and more into behavioral health care.
我們越來越重視行為健康照護。
We've always done that. We've been doing that for years, but we've really expanded our capabilities there. We now have hundreds of social workers and case workers that are providing wonderful services from depression screenings to other crisis response. And so we're going to continue to scale that up. We see a lot of RFP opportunities available in the behavioral health space at the very growing field. And so I think you'll see more growth in that area as well.
我們一直都是這樣做的。我們多年來一直這樣做,但我們確實擴展了我們的能力。我們現在有數百名社工和個案工作者,他們正在提供從憂鬱症篩檢到其他危機應變的優質服務。因此,我們將繼續擴大規模。我們在不斷發展的行為健康領域看到了很多 RFP 機會。因此,我認為您也會看到該領域的更多成長。
Mike Cole - VIce President of IR
Mike Cole - VIce President of IR
Great, thank you. And just one other question, if I may. Norm, looking at the cash flow guidance and it looks like the cash flow from operations guidance is like 10 to 15 million lower than adjusted EBITDA may just be a definition, but I was just trying to understand that dynamic given what appears to be a fairly material working capital tailwind that you should get from the HPD. contract this year?
太好了謝謝。如果可以的話,還有一個問題。標準,看看現金流量指導,看起來來自營運指導的現金流量比調整後的EBITDA 低10 到1500 萬,這可能只是一個定義,但我只是想了解這種動態,因為這似乎是一個相當大的變化。您應該從 HPD 獲得物質營運資金支持。今年簽約?
Right.
正確的。
So let's yes, let's walk you through that. Obviously, there's a big, the big gap there is taxes, and we're a tax payer. Now we've exhausted our federal NOLs. We have since we have plenty of state NOLs as we point out in the K that we filed today. But we have to take into account that we're going to be a tax payer going forward. So that's the big part of the difference, obviously you would add back the any non-stock non-cash stock comp and depreciation to your calculation. In terms of that estimate, though, that estimate assumes a somewhat neutral working capital environment and to your point, David, maybe there's a little bit of room there because if we do if we do see a and we have seen it in Q1 to date, if we do see a reversal of some of the working capital movements that we had at the end of last year in the second half of last year. Then in fact, it would be a tailwind, but that assumption of and again, I want to make sure that you have different definitions and different types of cash flow. I refer to the the cash flow from operations, i.e., the number that you will see in our cash flow statements as we go throughout the year, our assumption is sort of a neutral to slightly positive working capital movement as we go through the year.
所以,是的,讓我們引導您完成這個過程。顯然,稅收存在很大的差距,而我們是納稅人。現在我們已經用盡了聯邦 NOL。正如我們在今天提交的 K 中指出的那樣,我們有大量的州 NOL。但我們必須考慮到我們未來將成為納稅人。因此,這是差異的重要部分,顯然您將在計算中添加任何非股票非現金股票補償和折舊。不過,就該估計而言,該估計假設了某種程度中立的營運資金環境,就你的觀點而言,大衛,也許還有一點空間,因為如果我們確實看到了a 並且我們已經在第一季度看到了這一點,如果我們確實看到去年下半年我們去年年底的一些營運資金流動出現逆轉。事實上,這將是一種順風,但這種假設再次,我想確保你有不同的定義和不同類型的現金流。我指的是營運現金流,也就是您在全年現金流量表中看到的數字,我們的假設是全年營運資本變動為中性至略為正值。
Operator
Operator
That's what's built into the acquisition cost.
這就是採購成本所包含的內容。
Allison, I've got. Thank you.
艾莉森,我有。謝謝。
Our next question comes from Pito Chickering of Deutsche Bank. Please go ahead.
我們的下一個問題來自德意志銀行的皮托·奇克林。請繼續。
Pito Chickering - Analyst
Pito Chickering - Analyst
Yes, good afternoon or good evening.
是的,下午好或晚上好。
Thanks for taking my questions.
感謝您回答我的問題。
Mike Cole - VIce President of IR
Mike Cole - VIce President of IR
I guess the last questions are a little bit differently. You said the step down for HPD., you probably have you less than feared. So from a pipeline perspective, do you think you can grow EBITDA in 2025 without HPD.? And as you think about HPD., should we think about it as like a $200 million annualized contract and a 30% gross margin as a ballpark?
我想最後的問題有點不一樣。你說 HPD 下台,你可能沒有擔心的那麼嚴重。那麼從管道的角度來看,您認為在沒有 HPD 的情況下,您是否可以在 2025 年實現 EBITDA 成長?當您考慮 HPD 時,我們是否應該將其視為年化合約 2 億美元、毛利率 30% 的大概情況?
Yes. I mean, I would say is normal, I would say maybe a little bit lower than that in terms of run rate, but that's in the general ballpark on the margin is somewhat consistent with our overall with our overall margin on a normal healthy couple of points lower than some of our other projects, but not materially different one way or the other.
是的。我的意思是,我會說這是正常的,我會說可能比運行率低一點,但在總體上,利潤率與我們的總體利潤率在正常健康的一對夫婦的整體利潤率上有些一致。分數低於我們的一些其他項目,但在某種程度上並沒有實質性的不同。
Norman Rosberg - CFO
Norman Rosberg - CFO
But as far as 2025 is concerned.
但就2025年而言。
I can tell you that in terms of our internal planning, we are plan as though that, that contract or that property program doesn't exist. So whatever goals we put out there in terms of where we want to be in 2025 are in Asia grew to 20.5. Those remain the internal goals and the mandate that we've given to the folks in the organization here, they're going to make that happen for us is that they have to come up with a model and plan that gets us there without assuming a big chunk of that from HPT.
我可以告訴你,就我們的內部規劃而言,我們的計劃就好像該合約或該財產計劃不存在一樣。因此,無論我們設定的 2025 年亞洲目標是 20.5。這些仍然是我們給予組織中的人員的內部目標和任務,他們將為我們實現這一目標,他們必須提出一個模型和計劃,使我們能夠實現這一目標,而無需假設其中很大一部分來自HPT。
Okay.
好的。
Mike Cole - VIce President of IR
Mike Cole - VIce President of IR
So you just ask it differently if it's a sale of this ballpark is a $60 million of EBITDA at the three mile 25 without that contract, I guess, should we still be using the guidance from today and think about growth on that, or should we think about a step back before normalizes in 25.
所以你只要換個問法,在沒有合約的情況下,在3 英里25 英里處出售這個球場是否能帶來6000 萬美元的EBITDA,我想,我們是否應該仍然使用今天的指導並考慮在此基礎上的成長,或者我們應該在 25 日恢復正常之前考慮退後一步。
And I think as we have it modeled out, we think it's going to moderate at a at a pretty nothing is ever linear, but we think it's going to moderate and free layered TAM and the stuff that we have visibility into would help us sort of filling those gaps as we get to the end of 2024?
我認為,當我們對其進行建模時,我們認為它將以幾乎沒有任何線性的方式進行調節,但我們認為它將調節和自由分層 TAM,而我們可以看到的東西將幫助我們到2024年底,我們能否填補這些空白?
Norman Rosberg - CFO
Norman Rosberg - CFO
I don't see I don't really see big cliff, right?
我沒看到我真的沒有看到大懸崖,對吧?
I think that's the biggest thing here that as we went into Yes, into the year, as we were going into the second half of last year, you have there's always a potential. I don't think we really see a cliff. I don't think is going to happen that way.
我認為這是這裡最重要的事情,當我們進入是的,進入今年,當我們進入去年下半年時,你總是有潛力。我認為我們並沒有真正看到懸崖。我認為不會發生那樣的事情。
So I think it'll be a little more gradual, but there does come a point where we have to make the assumption that it's going to have to be entirely replaced again, just at the I think we're talking a lot about how we have in our models, the micro related revenues abating in the back half of the year. And we do we have it there. But as Norm mentioned, we don't we don't foresee necessarily a cliff, and we're doing our best to help our partners in New York City, which again, we've been working for with for a number of years, we've been running lots of different population health programs with them, including today, we operate programs for unchartered homeless population.
所以我認為這會更加漸進一些,但確實到了一個點,我們必須做出這樣的假設:它必須再次完全被替換,就在我認為我們正在談論很多關於我們如何在我們的模型中,微觀相關收入在今年下半年減少。我們確實有它。但正如諾姆所提到的,我們並不預見到一定會出現懸崖,我們正在盡最大努力幫助紐約市的合作夥伴,我們已經與紐約市合作多年了,我們一直在與他們一起開展許多不同的人口健康項目,包括今天,我們為未知的無家可歸者開展項目。
Lee Bienstock - CEO
Lee Bienstock - CEO
And with regards to the migrant service.
關於移民服務。
We don't have it where it just hits a cliff. Again, we are modeling that it's abating because we like to take a conservative approach to that. But I can tell you, we're really proud of the work that we're doing at an enormous scale that we are able to provide at that end, and we're doing everything we possibly can to help cities manage the crisis and and ultimately help asylum seekers as they arrive into the system and then ultimately exit the system. And we have programs designed to do that and so we're going to continue to help there. We did take a conservative approach towards the back half of the year and as we've been talking about, but there's no indication right now at all that there is some cliff or there is a reason to think that that everything is abating towards the back half of the year. Again with that's the approach we've taken and that's what you hear us communicating to you on the call. But again, we feel like we've modeled, we've modeled that out for the back half of the year but again, no indication that. And that's why there's a cliff coming here, which I want to make sure that we're communicating.
我們沒有它剛剛觸及懸崖的地方。同樣,我們正在建模它正在減弱,因為我們喜歡採取保守的方法。但我可以告訴你,我們對我們為此能夠提供的大規模工作感到非常自豪,我們正在盡一切努力幫助城市應對危機和最終幫助尋求庇護者進入系統,然後最終退出系統。我們有旨在做到這一點的計劃,因此我們將繼續提供幫助。正如我們一直在談論的那樣,我們確實對今年下半年採取了保守的態度,但現在根本沒有跡象表明存在一些懸崖,或者有理由認為一切都在向下半年減弱半年。這就是我們所採取的方法,這就是您在電話中聽到的我們與您溝通的內容。但我們再次感覺到我們已經建模了,我們已經在今年下半年建模了,但同樣沒有跡象表明這一點。這就是為什麼這裡會有懸崖,我想確保我們正在溝通。
Perfect.
完美的。
Mike Cole - VIce President of IR
Mike Cole - VIce President of IR
As you look at your core strength has always been your ability to pivot and adapt their business model, which has been extraordinary.
如你所見,你的核心優勢始終是你調整和調整他們的商業模式的能力,這是非凡的。
I guess for the note, the investor questions I keep getting is around for 25, a worse-case scenario HBTs out there. So I guess let me ask this sort of one-time differently and then I apologize, but if I think about your 2014 guidance, if there's no HPD., we're still think about EBITDA growth off of that base in 2025?
我猜想,就說明而言,我不斷收到的投資者問題大約是 25,這是 HBT 的最壞情況。所以我想讓我一次性地以不同的方式問這個問題,然後我道歉,但如果我考慮一下你們 2014 年的指導,如果沒有 HPD,我們仍然會考慮 2025 年 EBITDA 在此基礎上的增長嗎?
Yes, that's absolutely what modeling right now. And we'll share a lot more about 2025 as we progress through this year. But I can tell you we are focused on on executing operationally. We're always looking for ways to optimize the business from day one. We've operated these projects as profitable projects. We've operated the business so that we can expand the business and invest in different areas. And so I can tell you we're going to continue we're looking for efficiencies and to continue to expand both revenues, top line and bottom line.
是的,這絕對是現在的建模。隨著今年的進展,我們將分享更多有關 2025 年的資訊。但我可以告訴你,我們專注於營運執行。從第一天起,我們就一直在尋找優化業務的方法。我們將這些項目作為盈利項目來運作。我們經營業務是為了擴大業務,投資不同的領域。所以我可以告訴你,我們將繼續尋求效率,並繼續擴大收入、營收和利潤。
Operator
Operator
Thank you.
謝謝。
Ladies and gentlemen, we have reached the end of the question and answer session. I will now hand over to the COB. bin stock.
女士們、先生們,問答環節已經結束。現在我將把工作交給 COB。倉庫存。
So closing comments.
所以關閉評論。
Lee Bienstock - CEO
Lee Bienstock - CEO
Thank you, and thank you, everyone, for joining us. And we experienced another year of strong growth across each of our key customer verticals in 2023.
謝謝你們,也謝謝大家加入我們。2023 年,我們的每個主要客戶垂直領域又經歷了強勁成長的一年。
Before we close, I just want to take this opportunity to thank our 8,000 plus dedicated staff members to help us achieve the success.
在結束之前,我想藉此機會感謝我們 8,000 多名敬業的員工,他們幫助我們取得了成功。
You continue to embody DoCoMo's total commitment to democratizing health care by delivering high quality, highly accessible care. To all, I'll continue to spend even more time in the field with you so that I can see you in action and it's inspiring to witness the empathy, professionalism and expert care you provide to each of our patients. I'm endlessly grateful for your extraordinary efforts, and I'm proud I'm proud to be leading a company that's helping transform how health care is being delivered for the good. Thank you all for joining.
您將繼續體現 DoCoMo 透過提供高品質、易於獲得的護理來實現醫療保健民主化的全部承諾。總而言之,我將繼續花更多的時間在現場與你們在一起,這樣我就能看到你們的行動,見證你們為我們每一位患者提供的同理心、專業精神和專家護理是鼓舞人心的。我對你們的非凡努力深表感激,我很自豪能夠領導一家幫助改變醫療保健提供方式的公司。感謝大家的加入。
Us, and I look forward to our next report in early May Be Well, thank you.
我們,我期待五月初的下一份報告,謝謝。
Operator
Operator
Ladies and gentlemen, that concludes today's event. Thank you for attending, and you may now disconnect.
女士們、先生們,今天的活動到此結束。感謝您參加,您現在可以斷開連接。
Your lines will do we yes, ALAC. and <unk> and who knows?
是的,ALAC,您的台詞將會幫助我們。和誰知道?
Yes.
是的。