Designer Brands Inc (DBI) 2014 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Good morning and welcome to the DSW fourth quarter 2014 earnings conference call.

All participants will be in a listen-only mode.

(Operator Instructions)

After today's presentation, there will be an opportunity to ask questions.

(Operator Instructions)

Please note this event is being recorded.

I would now like to turn the conference over to Christina Cheng, Senior Director of Investor Relations.

Please go ahead.

Thank you, Emily.

Good morning and welcome to DSW's fourth quarter conference call.

Earlier today, we issued a press release detailing the results of operations for the 13-week period ended January 31, 2015.

Please note that various remarks made about the future expectations, plans and prospects of the Company constitute forward-looking statements.

Actual results may differ materially from those indicated by these forward-looking statements due to various factors including listed in today's press release and in our public filings with the SEC.

Joining us today are Mike MacDonald, President and CEO; Debbie Ferree, Vice Chairman and Chief Merchandising Officer; and Mary Meixelsperger, Chief Financial Officer.

Mike will discuss our full-year performance and our progress towards strategic priorities followed by Mary, who will review our 2014 results and outlook for 2015.

After our prepared remarks, we will open the floor for Q&A.

With that, I will turn the call over to Mike.

Thanks, Christina, and good morning, everyone.

FY14 was one filled with many accomplishments and a few disappointments.

We entered the year with very little sales momentum, and with both external and internal challenges.

These factors led to a difficult first half performance that burdened our full-year results and prevented us from increasing adjusted earnings for the first time in six years.

The good news is that we addressed the situation swiftly and effectively.

At the outset of the year, we made a number of leadership changes in our buying organization.

These changes led to a resurgence of our women's footwear business, which contributes over 60% of total revenues.

After four consecutive quarters of comparable sales declines, the women's footwear category turned positive in Q3, and recorded a strong 6% increase in Q4.

We also strengthened our value proposition, by increasing our opportunistic buys and selectively reducing our prices, while enhancing our brand assortment across all stores.

We believe these actions, contributed to our steady improvement in comparable sales performance throughout the year.

In the online space, we made it much easier for our customers to take advantage of our free shipping offer and we highlighted this offer more prominently on our website.

In addition, we broadened our online assortment through the expansion of our drop ship program.

We also added PayPal as a secure payment option and implemented a mobile app.

We believe these and other actions were responsible for the accelerated growth of dotcom demand as the year progressed.

In terms of marketing, we made some significant moves.

We increased the marketing spend, and we made shifts in how we spend our marketing budget by media type.

We believe those changes helped to create the sales momentum that we built throughout the year, and contributed to positive store traffic counts in Q4 of 2014.

In the omni-channel arena, we digitized products that previously were offered for sale in stores only.

We also increased our commitment and support of our ship-from-store capability.

For the year, omni-sales, that are sales that are demanded in one location and fulfilled from another, almost doubled.

And we also saw in-store engagement improve, with almost 6% of store sales completed using mobile point-of-sale tablets.

All of these actions came with consequences.

Our mark-up contracted; our shipping costs increased.

Our shipping revenue declined.

And our marketing costs delevered.

To be clear, I consider these costs to be investments in our business that are paying off.

In the first quarter of the year, our comparable sales declined by almost 4%.

In the three subsequent quarters, we recorded comparable sales increases of 1%, 3%, and almost 8%, respectively.

While expense reductions and efficiencies can create short-term profit increases, topline growth is the engine that drives long-term profitability.

In 2014, we invested in the future growth of our business.

The rapid growth of e-commerce and Smartphone adoption continues to change customer expectations of how they want to shop, and how they expect retailers to conduct business.

Many of the changes we affected in 2014, were in response to these evolving customer preferences.

However, we have much more to accomplish as we redefine DSW's brand cornerstones of assortment, value, and convenience.

Let me review out a few of our priorities for 2015.

This spring, we will pilot a new technology-based service model that will bring endless aisle experience in store.

We're expanding the DSW.com assortment to include a wider selection effects of accessories.

Later this year, we will add buy online, pick up in store capability.

We will revise our ship from store fulfillment criteria to select stores with slower inventory turns.

We believe this will reduce markdowns and increase margins.

We are in the midst of implementing our new assortment planning system which allows us to allocate our products more precisely by location based on customer preferences.

We expect to derive benefits from this system beginning in 2016.

We continue to refine our small store, our small format store; we will have 17 locations open by the end of 2015.

We implemented a new labor scheduling system that will improve customer engagement by better matching store staffing with customer traffic.

We launched a new marketing campaign this spring that more effectively focuses on our target customer.

And we recently enhanced our rewards program by awarding full points on clearance purchases.

We believe this enhancement is another way of creating more value for our customers.

I'm confident these initiatives will continue to transform DSW into an even more customer-centric Company.

We are also morphing our organizational structure to become more customer focused.

Last month, we announced several important organizational changes that I'm going to highlight here today.

First, we designated Carrie McDermott as Chief Operating Officer.

Carrie had previously been responsible for stores, dotcom site operations, and the Shoephoria call center.

We've expanded her responsibilities to include marketing which means she will now manage all four customer touch points.

This change will ensure we deliver a consistent experience across all points of contact.

Second, we designated Bill Jordan as our Chief Administrative Officer.

Bill had previously overseen human resources, real estate, and legal.

He now adds information systems to his portfolio of responsibilities which will allow him to impact the business more directly.

Third, we designated Roger Rawlins as our Chief Innovation Officer.

For the past two years, Roger has been directing our omni-channel team and initiatives.

We no longer consider our omni work as just another business initiative.

Rather, we see it as a fundamental restructuring on how we plan and operate the business.

In his new role, Roger will be responsible for strategic planning, innovation, and project implementation.

And finally, we designated Harris Mustafa as our Chief Supply Chain Officer.

This change recognizes the increasing importance of DSW's supply chain initiatives to the achievement of our strategic objectives.

These changes will improve the consistency of the customer experience, balance workload across the organization, and provide development for individuals who have the capacity and the desire to contribute more significantly.

The changes will also increase our bench strength.

In summary, after a difficult start to 2014, we responded with actions that have re-energized our business, and given us momentum as we entered 2015.

In addition, we continued to pursue our longer-term strategic agenda that will position DSW as America's favorite place for shoes.

Before I turn it over to Mary, let me say a couple of words about the West Coast port delays.

First, we are delighted that the labor contract negotiations have apparently been settled.

However, the processing slowdowns that we have seen, for the last several months, have resulted in product delays.

We've been able to offset some of these delays with the early release of our pre-buy inventory.

As of today, our inventory ownership is approximately 6.5% lower than what we had intended it to be at this time.

Further, we expect it will take another several weeks or even months before the West Coast ports are caught up and operating normally.

We've been working through this situation cooperatively with our suppliers, to minimize its impact on our sales and profitability while simultaneously capitalizing on opportunities for highly advantageous buys.

With that, I'll turn the call over to Mary to discuss our financials in more detail.

Thank you, Mike, and good morning, everyone.

Our reported net income for the year was $153.3 million, or $1.69 per share, compared to last year's reported net income of $151.3 million or $1.65 per share, which included $0.23 per share in charges related to RVI and our luxury test.

Excluding these charges, adjusted net income for the year was $153.5 million, or $1.69 per share, compared to last year's adjusted net income of $172.8 million, or $1.88 per share.

All of my comments this morning regarding year-over-year comparisons will relate to adjusted results, which exclude charges related to RVI and our luxury test.

Our full-year results reflect the actions we took to reignite our sales momentum in fall.

We infused new talent within our merchant team, repositioned our inventory, strengthened our value proposition and brand mix and invested in the powerful marketing campaign.

As a result, after starting the year with a 4% comp decline in Q1, we ended with a comp increase of 7.6% in Q4.

Our full-year merchandise margin rate decreased by 155 basis points, driven by Spring markdown activity, higher shipping costs, and lower initial markups.

Again, our performance is markedly different between the first and second half of the year.

In spring, our merchandise margin declined 240 basis points.

This decline narrowed to 70 basis points in the fall, with an improved markdown rate offsetting the lower IMU, category mix and lower shipping revenues.

Our full-year occupancy rate increased by 30 basis points, two-thirds of which was for impairment costs incurred during the second and third quarters.

Fulfillment and distribution cost increased 10 basis points; the full-year gross profit rate was 190 basis points lower than the prior year.

Full-year SG&A expenses increased by 7% due to store expense growth, IT expenses, and marketing investments.

As a percentage of sales, SG&A rate increased by 20 basis points the last year.

Savings from lower incentive comp accounted for a 30 basis point benefit for the full year.

As a result of these factors, full-year operating margin decreased by 210 basis points to 9.7%.

Including an after-tax contribution of $2.8 million from Town Shoes of Canada, and a higher tax rate, adjusted net income decreased by 11%, with the spring season accounting for virtually all of that decline.

Full-year EPS was $1.69 per share.

Turning to the most recent quarter, our Q4 sales capped a successive comp improvement throughout the year.

Sales for the quarter increased 12% to $640 million, driven by a comp increase of 7.6%.

Comparable transactions for the DSW segment increased 7%.

Store and online traffic increased and maintained its momentum after the holiday shopping period.

Conversion rates increased in both store and dotcom.

Low single digit increase in units per transaction was partially offset by slightly lower average unit retails, leading to a modest uptick in ADS, AURs increased in footwear but decreased in accessories.

Women's footwear had a 6% comp increase during Q4, driven by strong demand for boots and dress footwear.

Women's boots comps increased by 13% on top of last year's 8% increase.

We chased demand for cold weather boots, using some of our pre-buy inventories.

Our women's dress footwear comped up 6% on the quarter, driven by regular priced merchandise.

Our customer responded favorably to greater levels of fashion and newness in the assortment.

Our women's casual business comped down 8%.

We continued to adjust our casual assortment to find the customer's preference for fashion athletics while modernizing classic silhouettes within casual flats.

We plan to drive improvements in the spring season with the expansion of key items that tested well this fall.

Men's footwear posted a 7% comp increase, driven by strong results in men's boots.

Athletic was the strongest footwear category in the quarter, posting a 14% comp increase.

We distorted our buys in fashion athletics to capitalize on strong holiday demand and to strengthen vulcanized footwear.

Our athletic comp accelerated throughout the year.

Our accessories business comped up 13% in the quarter, led by growth in fashion accessories, hosiery, and jewelry.

We expanded our accessories assortment online during December and saw the category drive incremental business during the gift-giving season.

Geographically, our sales performance was relatively even.

Our regular priced comps were consistently positive throughout the quarter.

Our clearance comps were below regular price but still positive due to faster sell-through rates, leaving the lower clearance inventory levels at the end of the quarter.

In addition to the improvement in traffic, we increased our rewards enrollment rates and drove an increase in transaction activity by new members.

We added a net 1.3 million new rewards members this year.

We opened 37 new locations in 2014, including five small format stores for a total of 431 locations.

This represents an increase of 9.4% in-store comp and 6.8% in square footage.

We estimated that sales cannibalization had an impact of about 1% on our comparable sales performance for the year.

In our Affiliated Business Group, fourth-quarter comps increased by 3.3% on top of a 1.8% increase last year.

ABG opened three stores during the fourth quarter for a total of 372 locations.

We were pleased with the momentum in our ABG business.

Fourth-quarter gross profit declined by 60 basis points to last year.

Q4 merchandise margin declined by 100 basis points, driven by lower shipping revenue, lower initial markup, and nonrecurring items that benefited Q4 last year.

Lower initial markups drove better sell-through and lower markdowns.

Lower shipping revenue drove a 30 basis points deleverage in net shipping expense.

The nonrecurring items from last year provided a headwind of 35 basis points.

Occupancy rate was 50 basis points favorable to last year due to sales leverage and our distribution cost increased by 10 basis points.

As a percentage of sales, our Q4 SG&A rate was flat to last year.

Q4 adjusted net income was $30.9 million, an increase of 8%.

Diluted earnings per share increased by 13% to $0.35 per share and 89.4 million shares outstanding.

Fourth-quarter EPS included a $0.01 benefit from Town Shoes of Canada and was included in that was -- which was included in our prior guidance, and $0.02 of income from a legal settlement.

Turning to the balance sheet, inventory for DSW Incorporated ended above last year by 6.5% on a cost per square foot basis.

This included an increase in pre-buys secured to deliver exceptional values.

Excluding pre-buys, inventory cost per square foot increased by 2.8%.

We ended the quarter with cash, short and long-term investments of $447 million, compared to $579 million last year, driven by higher CapEx, ongoing buyback and dividend activity, and a $72 million investment in Town Shoes of Canada.

We generated $107 million in free cash flow this year, despite weak results during the first half of the year.

Our well-capitalized balance sheet enabled us to make key investments while enhancing shareholder return.

For the full-year, we invested $93 million in CapEx, an increase of 11% over last year due to business and it projects, new stores and store remodels.

Growth remains the top priority for capital allocation.

Cash returned to shareholders exceeded $152 million in 2014, with $85 million in share repurchases and $67 million in dividends.

We currently have $63 million available on our current share repurchase authorization.

We did not repurchase any shares in the fourth quarter.

However, our goal increased our quarterly dividend by 6.7% to $0.20 per share this quarter, which resulted a dividend yield of 2.1% based on yesterday's closing price.

Turning to our outlook for 2015, as we started this year with a more encouraging economic backdrop, we expect to drive continued topline momentum, with exciting initiatives in merchandising, customer experience, digital innovation and marketing.

Full-year comparable sales are expected to increase in the low to mid-single digit range.

Total revenue growth is expected in the 7% to 8% range.

We will open 35 new DSW stores, including eight to ten small format stores.

We expect merchandise margin to improve modestly.

Lower markdowns are expected to offset lower initial markups, modest cost inflation, shipping expenses, and the cost of enhancing our rewards program as we grant full points on clearance purchases.

In addition, we expect to see modest leverage from occupancy expenses with our projected comp range.

Our guidance does not factor in any impact from possible supply chain disruptions.

We expect SG&A expenses to increase in the low double-digit range, driven by two items.

Higher incentive compensation, which provided a source of cost savings last year, and an increase in non-cash equity compensation expense.

The increase in stock compensation is due to a change in the method used to translate compensation into equity units and the use of a shorter amortization period for certain equity grants.

Without these two items, 2015 SG&A growth would be roughly 9%.

We expect operating profits to grow by 10% and operating margin rate to be slightly better than last year.

Excluding the increase in incentive compensation and stock compensation expense, we expect operating income to grow in the mid-teens range.

Assuming the tax rate of 39%, and a share comp of 90 million shares, we expect full-year earnings per share in the range of $1.80 to a $1.90 per share.

This includes $0.04 to $0.05 per share from Town Shoes of Canada and does not assume any new share repurchases.

The midpoint of guidance represents approximately 10% earnings growth in 2015.

We expect capital expenditures of approximately $115 million in 2015, with that going into new stores and remodels and the balance going into technology, including e-commerce investments and other business projects.

In summary, we ended 2014 with a strong finish.

With Q4 EPS growth of 13%, and our strongest comp sales in the last three years.

We hope to continue our positive momentum in FY15.

We are confident our disciplined execution of our business model will create a sustainable runway for long-term growth and consistently attractive return on capital.

This completes our prepared remarks and I'd like to turn the call over to the operator for Q&A.

Thank you.

We will now begin the question-and-answer session.

(Operator Instructions) We ask that you please limit yourself to one question and one follow-up.

At this time, we'll pause momentarily to assemble our roster.

Camilo Lyon, Canaccord Genuity.

Good morning everyone.

Nice job on the quarter.

Thank you.

So quick reconciliation question.

So Mary, the guidance you said that there's no impact from possible supply chain disruptions but Mike, you also said that there was a delay in getting some of the inventory into your stores.

I think you said about 6.5% lower than what you expected.

Could you just help reconcile that comment with the guidance and if we should expect to see some sort of impact to the Q1 comp?

Sure.

It's a good question.

Right now, our sales performance in the first six weeks of the quarter is consistent with our guidance, okay?

So any port delays that have resulted in lower inventory levels, have been offset by other factors.

What happens the rest of the way, I can't tell.

I can tell you that we are missing about 6.5% of inventory that we had expected to have at this time.

It's affecting certain areas worse than others.

And we're monitoring it carefully and we're going to be shipping some key items in via air freight and working in other ways to minimize the impact which, as I say so far, we've been successful in doing that.

But it would be inappropriate for me not to mention the fact that we're missing some significant portion of our inventory.

Camilo, I would also comment that specifically in the sandals area, our sandals inventory is -- has not been affected by the late delays.

We're on plan with regard to our sandal inventories.

And second, I would also tell you that our merchants are working hard to take advantage of opportunistic buys given what we're seeing in the marketplace related to the port delays.

That actually leads me to my second question; obviously, this seems to be like a very advantageous scenario for you to do just that.

Can you help us understand how long this benefit should last if you're able to buy as much inventory as you eventually want to?

Can this help Q2, Q3?

Can this help Spring of 2016 and how do we think of the overall duration of this benefit of the inventory that's going to be released unto the market?

Sure.

I'll take that question.

This is Debbie.

So we believe that the late deliveries are actually just Spring merchandise, Spring/Summer merchandise so we should be able to take advantage of that benefit through opportunistic buys, second quarter and third quarter and in some cases, fourth quarter because, remember, we do a southern door sandals strategy that starts about October, starts early for resort areas.

And we believe that we'll be able to take advantage of some of those goods and be able to use those for Q4.

It may be depending on what lists come out.

You know, we started to see the opportunity buy list come out now.

It may be that once we see the full complexion of those lists, that there could be some opportunities for pre-buy for Spring of 2016.

Great.

And is that to say that as you think about that opportunity to buy that incremental product, that we should expect that to be, obviously, margin beneficial to you?

So I would say that part of it will be margin beneficial, but the other piece of this is being able to really add -- to pass more value on to our customers so I think it will be a blend.

Right and then just final point on that and I'll pass it onto the next person.

The comp of low to mid-single digits, does that embed opportunistic purchases and expectations of selling that product over the next few quarters or is that more of just the run rate of the business excluding the opportunistic portion?

Camilo, this is Mary.

It does embed assumptions rated to the opportunistic buyers.

Okay.

Wonderful.

Good job guys.

All the best.

Thank you.

Seth Sigman, Credit Suisse.

Okay, great.

Thanks very much and congrats guys on all the progress that you're seeing.

I want to talk a little bit about SG&A and how to think about that.

So in the second half of 2014, the spending picked up a bit and obviously, it's yielded strong results on the topline but when you look at the guidance that calls for 9% growth in 2015, slightly above sales, can you just walk us through some of the areas you're still investing in, and the cadence and how we should be thinking about that throughout the year?

Thanks.

Yes, I think in the script we noted that two big headwinds we've got are a full complement of incentive compensation, which is about a $10.5 million bad guy for next year -- or for 2015 and then some change in the equity compensation program, which is about $5.5 million.

So you put those two together and it's a $16 million headwind.

And if it weren't for those two pieces, I think our SG&A would be, our SG&A rate would be about flat and our operating profit would be up in the teens.

So it's really those two factors that are causing us not to love her more.

Okay.

But I mean, historically, you've been able to lever on a low to mid-single digit comp a little bit more than that so there's still investments within that I know in the second half of the year, whether, it was IT or marketing, that you've emphasized.

Obviously, it's having a positive impact on sales.

Trying to understand if there's areas like that, that you're still focused on in 2015.

Sure.

And you mentioned the two that I would have mentioned.

IT, in order to continue our work to make our customer experience more seamless across all channels, and marketing, which we will annualize some of the spend we started to make last year.

Okay, and just a clarification on the EPS guidance the $1.80 to $1.90, does that include share purchases?

No.

Okay, thanks.

Scott Krasik, Buckingham Research.

Hi, everyone.

Thanks for taking my questions.

Can you just go back and parse out the merchandise margin, down the 100, maybe talk about the IMU pressure in that versus fewer markdowns?

And then talk about, I think you said your merchandise margin expectation was to be up modestly; obviously, the comparisons look very juicy, especially in the first half so maybe talk about the put and takes there, please?

So Scott, are you talking specifically about Q4 last year?

Q4 and then what's sort of embedded in the guidance?

Sure.

So Q4 of last year, specifically, we did -- we were up against the good guys from FY13 of 35 basis points.

So it was primarily related to an insurance settlement that came away from Hurricane Sandy that happened in 2013.

So when you take that 35 basis points out, you're really 55 basis points up against the prior year in terms of a reduction.

IMU rate was down by 55 basis points and that was offset by a 24 basis point good guy compared to Q4 of 2013, really because our sell-throughs were better, overall.

So when you look at merch margin, those were the two big drivers.

And then we also have continued impact of shipping costs of about 28 basis points that was driven from the increased penetration of direct-to-consumer sales.

What we did last, the charge send rollout but we're still seeing significant comp increases year over year in that direct-to-consumer business.

So those were the big pieces in merchandise margins.

We did see occupancy leverage of 51 bips for the quarter.

And then embedded in the guidance, IMU and that type of things and can you recapture half of, let's say, the merchandise margin you lost last year?

Well, we were certainly projecting to recapture some of that merchandise margin, in total, in terms of what we've guided to, we haven't gotten specific as to what those puts and takes were but it's fair to say that we see most of that benefit coming in the first half.

Okay.

And then -- thank you.

And then just last, Debbie, in terms of the comps this quarter, really strong athletic comp, nice rebound in the women's comp.

Is this just people are more committed to buying footwear again after a lull?

This seems harken back to when everything was going right in 2010 and 2011.

Well, I think a good portion of the comp improvement was some of the actions that we took, reflecting that to Q1 and Q2 of what really happened in those quarters.

And I would tell you that there are some categories that actually turned on in a stronger way for us, for example, dress.

We called that out in second quarter that we thought that was reversing, that in fact has happened, and that momentum seems to be sustaining itself.

Athletic, I think came on very, very strong, and I see that continuing.

So I don't know if it's -- I think it's partially due to some of the actions that we took, changing the organization, making the assortment better, passing more value to the consumer, and then some of these categories that were weak coming on very strong, a lot in dress and athletic.

Yes.

Real nice.

Congratulations.

Thank you.

Taposh Bari, Goldman Sachs.

Good morning.

Congrats on the quarter as well.

Mike, at the start of the call, you outlined a list of investments that you made last year, which seem to be bearing fruit based on, especially the fourth quarter comp.

You had some initiatives on the come, things like the assortment planning that should, in theory, yield margin improvement.

So I guess the question I'm getting at is do you think the cost of business for DSW is the same or has it changed over the past couple of years in light of the way that the omni-channel rule has evolved?

I think there's probably three things going on.

One, I think we have changed the -- we've changed the business to respond how the customer wants to shop.

And last year we did almost $100 million worth of what we call omni sales where the customer demands it in one place and we fulfill it from another place.

And that -- she expects us to do that.

And we are continuing to drive bigger increases off of that very substantial base.

And unfortunately, with that, comes some higher shipping costs.

Because it costs us more to ship from store than it does to ship from our fulfillment center.

And about half of those omni sales are being shipped from our 430-some stores.

So it does come with a cost and that's been fundamental.

The other thing that we've done, unapologetic about, is that we took some pricing actions on key items, and we thought that was important, and we think it worked.

And we tracked it and it did work.

The other thing in the margin category, if we did have a couple of inventory imbalances, particularly in the first half of the year, and we should get that back.

Because one of the things we're best at is being nimble and adjusting our receipts to changing business trends by category and by region.

And then the other thing that's happened is that we've made a conscious decision to beef up our marketing project.

So I guess what I'd say is the shipping cost is structural, the markup is structural, but it's having favorable impacts, particularly in Q4 on our markdown rate.

The marketing probably is structural, and some of the higher markdowns that we experienced in 2014 are not structural.

They should be correctable.

What we've got ahead of us, is like you say, the impact of assortment planning, to the extent Debbie decides to take these close-outs to higher margin as versus better value, that represents an opportunity.

I made a mention in my comments about the next phase of our ship from of our charge send program which is changing how we decide which stores we're going to pick the inventory from to fulfill on the orders.

And right now, we use a fairly rudimentary decision tree which first looks for the product and fulfillment center and then it looks for the products if it's not in the fulfillment center in nearby locations.

And later this year, we will change that decision tree to pick the store to fulfill those orders from based on where the product, that specific product is turning the slowest and where it's most likely to turn into a markdown.

And I think that can have some pretty significant margin impacts.

So those are the puts and takes as I see them.

Great.

I appreciate the detail and then the follow-up is on boots.

Debbie, perhaps for you.

Can you remind us or provide some context on to how big your cold weather boot business is in the fourth quarter?

The question that we're ultimately getting at, is do you see similar strength in your non-cold weather boot business during the quarter?

Yes, so let me just get that number for you in the cold weather boots.

Hold on one second here.

About 18% in Q4.

That was one of the strongest comp categories that we had for Q4.

If you extract out cold weather, because obviously, year over year, you can't really rely on that, we still comped double-digit comp increase in boots.

So cold weather made it stronger but it was still a strong comp even without it.

18% is 18% of Company or 18% of women's?

Of the boot category.

It was a penetration.

Okay.

Thank you guys.

Good luck.

Thank you.

Jeff Van Sinderen, B. Riley.

Hi, good morning and let me add my congratulations.

Maybe you could just touch a little bit on any performance difference that you see in cold weather versus warmer weather markets?

And then any thoughts on how you're looking at that in the context of extreme weather that we saw in February.

Just wondering if there's anything to read into that?

And then also just a follow-up on SG&A, just wondering if we should be thinking that may be next year is the year when we could see more SG&A leverage.

Then finally, if you could just touch on a quick update on Town Shoes.

Thanks.

Sure.

Okay, so in terms of regional performance, I think Mary's comments spoke to a fairly even performance in the quarter.

And over longer periods of time, the performance tends to even out.

To the point about the extreme weather, our business is very weather affected.

And when temperatures are seasonal, we do exceptionally well, and when they're inclement, we struggle.

And so to your point about February, the first half of February was very good.

And the second half of February was very weak because of the obvious weather issues we faced.

In terms of SG&A, I think our comments were fairly straightforward.

In terms of what we expect in SG&A, we expect some minor deleveraging SG&A in 2015, and it's due to the two items I mentioned, the incentive compensation and the equity compensation.

Were it not for that, we would lever a little bit.

We are focusing on driving topline and we think that's the engine that drives long-term profitability so that's what were going to do.

In terms of Town, Town is doing -- let me comment on the DSW stores and the Town Shoes business.

They've opened up the same two stores that they opened last year in August; those stores are tracking to sales volume that would be consistent with an average DSW store in the United States.

Aside from that, Town had mixed business in 2014, as they invested in their infrastructure to be ready for more growth in the future.

And so we're pleased with our investment in Town.

It's approximately equal to what we said it as going to be in terms of the impact on our P&L.

And there are going to be several more DSW store openings in Canada in 2015.

Okay.

Great work.

Best of luck.

Thank you.

Kelly Chen, Telsey Advisory Group.

Hi, guys congrats on a terrific quarter.

For 2015, I think that low single to mid-single digit comp guidance, if I'm not mistaken, is the strongest comp guidance you've had in a while, as Debbie, you talked little bit about dress and athletics.

Just to clarify, do you think there's more newness and more trends that can drive comps this year or do you think you're doing a better job of capitalizing on something like the athletic trend?

Can you just talk little bit about that?

Yes, so in athletic, let me just ground this by saying the fashion piece of athletic, is up 40% of our total.

And it comped about at that rate as well.

So all of the activity and action and newness and freshness is really coming out of the fashion piece of the business.

And it's really coming out of a couple of different brands and a couple key styles.

That business stayed very consistent, strong, strong, all through third quarter and fourth quarter.

And seems to be following that same momentum as we move into this year.

So I think it's big items, key items, and key looks coming into the athletics space that actually are driving a huge part of the increase.

But I will also tell you that the running business, the performance piece of the business is also strong for us.

Great.

And then if you guys could also talk about, with opportunistic buys?

Where you guys there now in terms of the percentage of the mix and is there still more work to be done and as a follow-up on if you could give us a quick update on what's going on with the kids' initiatives as well?

Thank you.

So for kids, we actually have it online right now.

And we have it in 20 stores.

We continue to test and learn, the business in children's is very healthy.

As we look forward, we do think that there is an opportunity to continue to expand that business.

And we're looking at what that strategy looks like now.

That was the first part.

I'm sorry.

Could you repeat the first part of the question, I'm sorry, on opportunistic buys?

Sure.

Just what percent of the mix that is where it stands now?

Yes, so opportunistic buys/closeouts, ranges right around 12%.

We said on previous calls, that it was a 10%; we would let it float up to 15%.

But I would tell you as opportunities come in, if there the right opportunities for our business, depending on what category they come in, we'll let that number float as high as we need to, to be able to satisfy customer demand.

Great.

Thank you.

Chris Svezia, Susquehanna Financial Group.

Good morning, everyone.

Nice job.

Debbie, for you, just to follow-up on the last question, the opportunistic buy piece.

I'm just curious.

What categories, given the port situation and the availability of inventory that's obviously, could become available, are you seeing it across pretty much every category from dress, casual?

I mean you mentioned sandals so far, okay, but I'm sure there's going to be a lot becoming available.

Just your thoughts about where you see the opportunity in certain categories on opportunistic buys because of the port situation?

Yes, Chris, so I would tell you that it's really, it's not concentrated to any one particular category.

It really seems to be impacting across many, many different categories.

As Mary stated though, we have, by the way, we planned sandals and by the pre-buys that we had in the sandal budget, we were able to protect our BOPs in sandals.

So that category, I would say, has the least amount of pressure on it.

But the frustrating part for the wholesaler is though they can't really tell you.

They know it's coming in but they can't tell you when it's going to be unloaded and when it's going to be delivered.

So it's really been a little bit in many different places.

Okay.

Okay.

On -- two follow-ups here.

Just on casual, that category continues to decline.

I'm sure you're planning that way.

Are you putting -- are the categories like dress, or athletic, taking that open to buy dollar?

And the last question I have is just on the, for the endless aisle inventory.

Can you maybe just talk about that and how that might actually help your smaller format stores, if at all?

So Chris, I really look at casual in a little bit different way than I have in the past.

So true casual, the way we've always looked at them, there are some bright spots there; that business is down right now.

I do see it improving.

But there are a couple of bright spots in there.

Number one, the flat category, as we start to evolve that and it starts to get some new styles, tapered toes, some mixed materials, new ornamentation, seems to be fueling some life into that category.

And then the modern comfort piece so it's all of the things that we saw at the Magic Shoe Show, where you have casuals with a little bit more attitude on the upper but with more comfort features.

And we see some real strong life there.

So there are some bright spots within that category.

But when I combine casuals with the fashion, the vulcanized piece of athletics, which is really an option for a lady that wants to wear a vulcanized shoe that just doesn't happen to lie in the casual category.

That business combined is very, very strong.

So I think you're seeing a shift between actual departments and what customers are choosing to buy.

But I do see strength coming back into the pure women's casual business and we're starting to see that now.

Okay.

Good to hear.

Thank you.

And then Chris, on the endless aisle question.

Our average store has 2,000, 2,500 style color choices and to your point, our small format stores have about half that.

And when you consider that we've got probably 10X that in our total assortment, 10X to 2,000 or 2,500, there is a wealth of additional choices out there for the customer.

And I think you know, from day one when we started opening these small format stores, we said the key is going to be to open up the full assortment to those customers, because they're already looking at a reduced choice count in terms of what shoes are physically in that store.

So the technology-based and higher service model test that we're going to initiate shortly in 10 stores, is really designed to exploit that opportunity and it will be both technology and service.

And those test stores will include certain small format stores as well.

So we're going to really be patient with the test.

We're going to monitor it over a year, but getting that right, is essential to our growth strategy relative to small format stores.

It is important to all stores, but it is especially important to small format stores.

So one thing you may have seen in our stores, Chris, is we just put up a new signing package that speaks to more styles, more colors, more widths, more sizes, and that, in a pretty obvious way, is announcing to our customer that there's much more beyond just what you see in the store.

And in the ten technology test stores, that message will be even clearer to the customer.

Okay.

All right.

Fair enough.

Thank you.

All the best.

Jay Sole, Morgan Stanley.

Good morning.

Thanks.

I just want to follow-up on the small format store question.

Can you talk about how -- can you remind us how many small format stores you have now.

Did you have a number for what they comped in the quarter?

And can you talk about just where along the spectrum you are in terms of testing these small format stores or are they really finished products?

Where are you in the evolution of those?

Yes, we've got seven of them open right now.

And the first two opened in the fourth quarter, third and fourth quarter of 2013, so most of them aren't even comparable.

I would say they are all making a healthy return; about half of them are achieving our sales expectations and half are a little short.

And so we are not where we want to be.

We are not a finished product yet but it's not stopping us from moving forward because we're committed to getting it right in terms of what we put in the stores, in terms of how we service the customer in those stores, in terms of the signing and the technology we use in those stores, and in terms of the cost of the buildout.

So we are working on all of those things, and we're confident we will get it right, and we're continuing to work on it right now.

Okay, got it.

Thanks so much.

Sam Poser, Sterne Agee.

Thank you for taking my question.

Good morning.

A couple of things.

In -- you talked about the 6% of your inventory that's missing.

Does the guidance, Mary, include -- recognize that missing inventory and not having it get worse?

I mean is that sort of, I mean, --

Sam --

That's my first question.

Sure, I think Mike mentioned that we haven't yet seen an impact year to date relative to our guidance.

From the fact that we're down in inventories from where we expected.

So from that perspective, we have not yet seen an impact.

We are watching carefully, in terms of getting those deliveries caught up in managing the inventories very carefully within the merchant teams to ensure that we're able to meet our customer sales demand.

So could there still be an impact from it here to the balance of Spring?

It's possible.

And that would not yet be reflected in our guidance.

No, no, that wasn't my question.

My question was you're 6% lower now.

Does that -- forget about what's going to happen next.

Does the 6% -- is that 6% missing baked into the guidance and hence, you're running up mid-single digits or so or within the range of your guidance so far?

That's all -- you've taken into account what's missing.

You haven't taken into account what may happen in the future; that's what I'm trying to understand.

The 6% down in the inventory relative to where we thought we would be is not factored into the guidance.

Okay, so then theoretically, you're doing better than you should be doing now given that you're missing 6% of the inventory.

That would be a fair statement.

Okay.

And then Debbie, you talked about lower IMU and less markdowns.

Can you talk about how that all fits together because that's going to result, you're saying in a better modest increase in gross margin or merchandise margin for the year?

So I'm not -- I'm not sure I understand -- I'm not sure I understand what the question is, Sam.

I understand the metrics, but I'm not - I don't understand --

A lot of people think if your IMU is going to be lower, it automatically means your end of day merchandise margins are going to be lower, and you're saying, well, that may not be the case, can you just give some more color on that?

Sam, I think we said in the remarks that fourth-quarter IMU was down 50 bips or 55 bips and that was offset by 25 bips worth of markdown improvement.

So I think that fourth-quarter experience is probably the best way to look at what might happen going forward.

But and that's an evolution of sort of the way you're attacking things, too, is that -- if I'm not mistaken?

What do you mean an evolution?

So Sam, what I would tell you is we took some pricing action, selective pricing action on particular styles.

What we saw was an improvement in sell-through, and we did see reduced markdowns.

That's not always going to happen, but it happened on the pricing action that we actually took.

So I think we're really learning about what customers' price sensitivities are around certain items and price points.

We made those decisions.

They worked out well for us; we used that same learning to guide some of the decisions that we'll make going forward.

This concludes our question-and-answer session.

I'd like to turn the conference back over to Mike MacDonald for any closing remarks.

Okay, thanks very much, and thanks to all of you for your interest in DSW, your support of DSW and your excellent questions.

Have a great day.

Happy St.

Patty's Day.

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