Digital Brands Group Inc (DBGI) 2024 Q1 法說會逐字稿

Greetings. Welcome to the Digital Brands Group Q1 2024, conference call. (Operator Instructions)

問候。歡迎參加 Digital Brands Group 2024 年第一季電話會議。（操作員說明）

Please note this conference is being recorded. I will now turn the conference over to your host, John McNamara. You may begin.

請注意，本次會議正在錄製中。現在我將會議交給主持人約翰·麥克納馬拉。你可以開始了。

Thank you, Hali. Good morning, everyone, and welcome again to the Digital Brands Group 2024, first-quarter earnings conference call and webcast. With us on the call this morning from Digital Brands is Hill Davis, Chief Executive Officer. Hil, will begin the call with an overview of the quarter and then we will open up the lines for questions.

謝謝你，哈利。大家早安，歡迎再次參加 Digital Brands Group 2024 年第一季財報電話會議和網路廣播。今天早上與我們一起參加電話會議的是 Digital Brands 執行長 Hill Davis。希爾將在電話會議開始時概述本季度的情況，然後我們將開放提問熱線。

Please keep in mind, this earnings call may contain forward-looking statements as defined in Section 27 A. of the Securities Act of 1933 as amended, including statements regarding, among other things, the company's business strategy and growth strategy. Expressions, which identify forward-looking statements speak only as of the date the statement is made. These statements are based largely on the company's expectations and are subject to a number of risks and uncertainties, some of which cannot be predicted or quantified and are beyond the company's control.

請記住，本次財報電話會議可能包含經修訂的 1933 年《證券法》第 27 A 條定義的前瞻性陳述，包括有關公司業務策略和成長策略等的陳述。識別前瞻性陳述的表述僅代表該陳述發表之日的情況。這些陳述主要基於公司的預期，並受到許多風險和不確定因素的影響，其中一些風險和不確定因素無法預測或量化，並且超出了公司的控制範圍。

Future developments and actual results could differ materially from those set forth in contemplated by or underlying the forward-looking statements. In light of these risks and uncertainties, there can be no assurance that the forward-looking statements will prove to be accurate. With that, I'll turn the call over to Hill Davis. Go ahead, Hill.

未來的發展和實際結果可能與前瞻性陳述中設想的或潛在的結果有重大差異。鑑於這些風險和不確定性，無法保證前瞻性陳述將被證明是準確的。這樣，我會將電話轉給希爾·戴維斯。繼續吧，希爾。

Hi. Thank you, John. Good morning, despite a timing shift in our wholesale shipments, we shifted revenue from the first quarter to the second quarter. We experienced a significant operating expense leverage. We expect this operating leverage to continue throughout the year. In fact, this operating leverage, coupled with higher revenues result in higher flow through to our operating and net income.

你好。謝謝你，約翰。早上好，儘管我們的批發發貨時間發生了變化，但我們將收入從第一季轉移到了第二季。我們經歷了巨大的營運費用槓桿。我們預計這種經營槓桿將在全年持續。事實上，這種營運槓桿加上更高的收入導致我們的營運收入和淨利潤更高。

Regarding the shift in wholesale, we had our fabrics -- majority of our fabric gets stuck in a shipment container at the LA port due to an extra check where we are of other products. So we lost two weeks there, which meant January shift in middle of February, middle of February, shipped in middle of March and majority of March shipped into the April period, which is -- what impacted revenue, which is pretty significant if you take the current revenue and divide by two.

關於批發的轉變，我們有我們的面料——由於我們對其他產品進行了額外檢查，我們的大部分面料被困在洛杉磯港口的裝運集裝箱中。因此，我們在那裡損失了兩週，這意味著二月中旬、二月中旬的一月班次、三月中旬發貨，三月的大部分時間都在四月期間發貨，這對收入產生了影響，如果你考慮一下的話，這是相當重要的當前收入除以二。

And I think that's really something people need to pay attention to because we will pick that up and we should ship the majority of June at the end -- the wholesalers have uncapped test based on sell-through rates in their stores and we do not expect that to happen again. It was just a one-off where US Customs flagged the container we are in, there was nothing we could do. We just have to wait until it went through its X-ray process, which we lost two weeks on and then everything was behind by then.

我認為這確實是人們需要注意的事情，因為我們會接受這一點，我們應該在六月末發貨 - 批發商根據其商店的銷售率進行了無上限測試，我們預計不會那樣的事情會再次發生。這只是美國海關標記我們所在貨櫃的一次性事件，我們無能為力。我們只需要等到它通過 X 射線檢查，我們錯過了兩週，然後一切都已經過去了。

By the way from our for -- as we move into the second quarter. Not only we benefit from that shift of March into April, but also shipped benefit from our store, which opened in mid-April. We are experiencing healthy week-to-week revenue increases since we first opened the store. And we're excited to see where that goes as it continues to grow. And as we said before, we're just sending product down there that we already have. So we're not making product for the store, which is just basically no cost on that side.

順便說一句，當我們進入第二季時。我們不僅受益於從三月到四月的轉變，而且還受益於我們四月中旬開業的商店。自從我們第一次開店以來，我們的收入每週都在健康成長。我們很高興看到隨著它的持續增長，它會走向何方。正如我們之前所說，我們只是將我們已有的產品送到那裡。所以我們不會為商店生產產品，這方面基本上沒有成本。

We also plan to benefit from additional e-commerce strategic decisions in the second half of the year on top of that. So in Q2, you're going to have the benefit of the store as well as the shift of March into April. And then you're also going to as you move through the second half of the year, our fall bookings are strong, coupled with some strategic e-commerce decisions we've made.

除此之外，我們還計劃從下半年額外的電子商務策略決策中受益。因此，在第二季度，您將受益於商店以及三月到四月的轉變。然後，當你進入今年下半年時，我們的秋季預訂量很強勁，再加上我們所做的一些策略性電子商務決策。

Let's discuss the first quarter results, that revenues were $3.6 million compared to $4.4 million a year ago. Again, as we mentioned, net revenues were negatively impacted by the wholesale shipments for March slipping into April, and then we expect to benefit from that in the second quarter of this year.

讓我們討論一下第一季的業績，營收為 360 萬美元，而去年同期為 440 萬美元。正如我們所提到的，淨收入再次受到 3 月批發出貨量下滑至 4 月的負面影響，然後我們預計今年第二季將從中受益。

The gross margin profit increased 48.1% compared to 45.5% a year ago. We expect that gross margin number to be higher as there are significant fixed costs such as pattern makers. So our fulfillment center the pick pack, ship cost are all built in the growth in gross profit or cost of goods sold. So as the revenues are higher, so are the gross profit margins. G&A expenses decreased $1 million compared to $4.5 million a year ago. This was 27.2% compared to a 100.5% a year ago, and we expect to continue to benefit from these synergies since the sundry acquisition.

毛利率較去年同期的45.5%成長48.1%。我們預期毛利率會更高，因為有大量固定成本，例如製版師。因此，我們的履行中心的提貨包裝、運輸成本都是建立在毛利或銷售商品成本的成長之上的。因此，隨著收入越高，毛利率也越高。一般管理費用比一年前的 450 萬美元減少了 100 萬美元。與一年前的 100.5% 相比，這一數字為 27.2%，我們預計自雜項收購以來將繼續受益於這些協同效應。

Sales and marketing expenses were $700,000 compared to $1 million a year ago, 19.8% versus 22% a year ago. And part of that too was the fact that the March e-commerce orders also then slipped into April as well. So really only two months of e-commerce in the Q1 numbers. Net operating loss was $225,000 compared to $3.7 million a year ago was interesting is if you look at what revenue slipped into the April period, we would have actually reported positive net operating income based on those results. Net loss was $684,000 or a loss of $0.46 per diluted share compared to a loss of $6.1 million or a loss of $27.8 per diluted share, a year ago, which is a significant improvement.

銷售和行銷費用為 70 萬美元，去年同期為 100 萬美元，增幅為 19.8%，去年同期為 22%。部分原因是三月的電子商務訂單也隨後滑落至四月。因此，第一季的電子商務數據實際上只有兩個月。淨營業虧損為 225,000 美元，而一年前為 370 萬美元。淨虧損為 684,000 美元，即稀釋後每股虧損 0.46 美元，而一年前為虧損 610 萬美元，即稀釋後每股虧損 27.8 美元，這是一個顯著的改善。

In including as we stated, the company would achieve significant operating leverage as we lap the first year of our sundry acquisition. We expect this operating leverage to continue throughout the year on higher revenues, which will increase and flow through to the net and operating income. Additionally, given our results and given what we expect to achieve in Q2, Q3 and Q4. The Board will continue to achieve strategic alternatives given the continued dislocation between Digital Brands Group public markets and the intrinsic value of the company's underlying assets and operating performance.

正如我們所說，隨著我們完成各種收購的第一年，該公司將實現顯著的營運槓桿。我們預計，隨著收入的增加，這種營運槓桿將在全年持續下去，這將增加並流入淨收入和營運收入。此外，考慮到我們的結果以及我們期望在第二季、第三季和第四季實現的目標。鑑於 Digital Brands Group 公開市場與公司基礎資產的內在價值和營運績效之間的持續脫節，董事會將繼續實現策略替代方案。

We have several options that we can pursue all of which should increase shareholder value meaningfully. And we know based on inbound demand that are not -- what our NASDAQ Shell is worth, which is significant. So we will continue to pursue this, especially like I said, as we know what Q2 is shaping up to be in what Q3 wholesale orders are the strategic alternatives, the store, et cetera. So thanks, everyone, for their time. We look forward to his continued momentum. And this concludes our first quarter 2024, earnings call. So let's open up to Q&A session.

我們有多種選擇可供選擇，所有這些選擇都應該有意義地增加股東價值。我們根據入境需求知道，我們的納斯達克殼牌價值不高，這一點很重要。因此，我們將繼續追求這一目標，特別是像我說的那樣，因為我們知道第二季將在第三季批發訂單中形成什麼，這是戰略替代品、商店等。謝謝大家抽出時間。我們期待他繼續保持勢頭。我們的 2024 年第一季財報電話會議到此結束。那麼就讓我們開始問答環節吧。

(Operator Instructions)

（操作員說明）

Mike travels, Private investor.

麥克旅行，私人投資者。

Hi, there. General broad question, but what does the companies like you say, competitive advantage or approach to the retail market. I mean, obviously, retailing is big and fragmented, but what's our angle here that we're playing with opening this one store and pivoting from e-commerce. So on and so forth?

你好呀。一般性廣泛的問題，但像你這樣的公司說什麼，競爭優勢或進入零售市場的方法。我的意思是，顯然，零售業規模龐大且分散，但我們的角度是什麼，我們正在考慮開設這家商店並從電子商務轉向。等等等等？

Yeah, regarding that, I don't -- I wouldn't look at a one store is pivoting from e-commerce. I think it's one of those things where what we're seeing is you need to have wholesale you need as e-commerce and then if stores works, you also need to have stores. A one thing about apparel, unlikely a book or a glass or something along those lines is that it is physical touch, see, fill, fit matters. So I would just keep that in mind. I think it's more of you need to be in all the channels, if the channels work.

是的，關於這一點，我不認為——我不會看到一家商店正在從電子商務轉向。我認為我們所看到的事情之一是你需要擁有電子商務所需的批發，然後如果商店有效，你也需要擁有一家商店。關於服裝，不像一本書或一杯酒或類似的東西，有一點是它是物理觸摸、看到、填充、合身很重要。所以我會記住這一點。我認為，如果管道有效的話，你們更需要參與所有管道。

With e-commerce, the days of just now rolling out unlimited ad spend is over. And so you're watching ROAS more closely and you're running a ROAS based campaign instead of just offering to the right feed to meet our campaign. And then wholesale continues to be strong for us. And then as far as the store, we had a lot of, like we said, product from sundry alone that was just sitting there. So it's in an outlet location. It is we'll continue to monitor that and see what makes sense. And if it does make sense to open a full -- what they call a full retail store. And then if so, we'll pursue it. So we're just learning there.

有了電子商務，剛推出無限廣告支出的日子已經結束了。因此，您可以更密切地關注廣告支出回報率，並運行基於廣告支出回報率的廣告系列，而不是僅僅提供正確的 Feed 來滿足我們的廣告系列需求。然後批發對我們來說繼續強勁。然後就商店而言，正如我們所說，我們有很多來自各種產品的產品就放在那裡。所以它位於一個出口位置。我們將繼續監控這一點，看看什麼是有意義的。如果開一家完整的——他們所說的完整零售店確實有意義的話。如果是這樣，我們就會追求它。所以我們只是在那裡學習。

And then we took over at least. So it's a short lease. So it's only three years. So there's not a lot of obligation or liability there. So in terms of what differentiates us, I would say the big things are. It's just going to be design and price point with sundry. The Q1 of this of last year was our last really good quarter before the brand rolled over, and we're lapping incredibly easy comparisons in Q2, Q3 and Q4. And so we expect to see that improve nicely. And what we did there as we sharpen the price point and brought in a new design team.

然後我們至少接管了。所以這是一個短期租賃。所以只有三年的時間。因此，那裡沒有太多的義務或責任。因此，就我們的與眾不同之處而言，我認為最重要的是。這只是設計和價格點與雜項。去年的第一季是我們在品牌翻牌之前最後一個真正表現出色的季度，我們在第二季、第三季和第四季進行了非常簡單的比較。所以我們希望看到這一點得到很好的改善。當我們提高價格點並引入新的設計團隊時，我們在那裡做了什麼。

Stateside, we continue to just grow that slow and steady, 20% a year, and that's basically driven on where the best price point at the women's contemporary market. And so that brand just gets more and more awareness and continues to build it and then we still is e-commerce only and Baileys is predominately licensing now. So it's really sharpening the price points of where you're the best product at the best price and then good design. We brought in a new designer for both brands, basically fall of last year. So we're starting to see her product hit the store floors and sell through. So that'll benefit.

在美國，我們繼續以每年 20% 的速度緩慢而穩定地成長，這基本上是由當代女裝市場的最佳價格點推動的。因此，該品牌的知名度越來越高，並繼續建立它，然後我們仍然只從事電子商務，而百利甜現在主要是授權。因此，它確實提高了價格點，即以最優惠的價格提供最好的產品，然後提供良好的設計。我們為這兩個品牌都引進了一位新設計師，基本上是去年秋天的。因此，我們開始看到她的產品進入商店並暢銷。這樣會有好處。

And then I think that's really the big driver is just being smart about it, just not chasing growth, focusing on cash flow as much as you are top line growth. And again, top line growth in Q1 was significantly impacted by basically majority of March shipping in April, and then you've got -- so we get that benefit plus the Store plus some other things. Does that answer the question on us? I know it is a little long winded just one of given for overview.

然後我認為這確實是一個重要的驅動力，就是要明智地對待它，而不是追逐成長，而是像專注於營收成長一樣專注於現金流。再說一次，第一季的營收成長基本上受到 4 月大部分 3 月出貨的顯著影響，然後你就得到了 - 所以我們得到了這個好處，加上商店和其他一些東西。這能回答我們的問題嗎？我知道這有點囉嗦，只是概述之一。

No, it does new to the story. So I did want to hear something extensive. Second question, you had come out with a press release in the past somewhat recent about no equity raises in 2024, but you had some equity activity. I don't know if you call it a raise. So what's the situation?

不，這對故事來說確實是新的。所以我確實想聽一些廣泛的內容。第二個問題，您最近發布了一份新聞稿，表示 2024 年不會進行股權融資，但您進行了一些股權活動。我不知道你是否稱之為加薪。那麼情況如何呢？

Yeah. So that was driven mostly by the NASDAQ sending us a delisting notice because are -- at the end of the year. We have to -- the auditors go through. And now that economy is predominantly all theoretical based and not actual based as an example, you take all these non-cash charges, as example, that was we had to take a $368,000 non-cash income tax charge, because for GAAP accounting, we could potentially sell any of our brands at any point in the future, unknown it could be a millennial from now, it could be a decade from now, it could be a year from now. No one knows, but this is what they say.

是的。這主要是由納斯達克向我們發送退市通知所推動的，因為是在今年年底。我們必須－審計員進行審核。現在經濟主要是基於理論而不是基於實際作為例子，你以所有這些非現金費用為例，我們必須承擔 368,000 美元的非現金所得稅費用，因為對於 GAAP 會計，我們可能在未來的任何時候出售我們的任何品牌，不知道它可能是從現在起的千禧世代，可能是十年後，也可能是一年後。沒有人知道，但這就是他們的說法。

And so they say based on that you need to take a tax consequence for that, which is kind of silly because the one thing I can guarantee is they don't know when the number is going to be wrong, but the base assigned to it, right? And so we had a lot of net non-cash charges, which debt that's below as you'll see we're above it now. But what day -- the NASDAQ looks at two things. One is at the quarter, that's number one. And number two is what they perceive as there -- your ongoing amount of burn and if you can maintain it.

所以他們說基於你需要為此承擔稅收後果，這有點愚蠢，因為我可以保證的一件事是他們不知道這個數字什麼時候會出錯，但分配給它的基數， 正確的？因此，我們有很多淨非現金費用，這些債務低於你會看到的，我們現在高於它。但那一天——納斯達克會關注兩件事。一個是在季度，這是第一名。第二是他們所感知的——你持續的燃燒量以及你是否能夠維持它。

So we have our hearing coming up. And basically, based on our conversations with the NASDAQ, we knew we're going to be in compliance when we reported Q1. But everyone felt that based on their comments and how they're reviewing all these things that we needed to show that with our burn and this additional capital. It would take us out of that risk because and we just -- it's one of those things where it they said it's a 50 50 weight. 50% if you're in compliance and the second is if they deem -- so completely subjective, if they deem that your burn will be able to be lower or will continue to maintain that shareholder equity, so that's what's driving that. So it wasn't driven by being staying listed on the NASDAQ.

我們即將召開聽證會。基本上，根據我們與納斯達克的對話，我們知道在報告第一季時我們將遵守規定。但每個人都認為，根據他們的評論以及他們如何審查所有這些事情，我們需要透過我們的燒錢和額外資本來證明這一點。這將使我們擺脫這種風險，因為我們只是 - 這是他們所說的 50 50 重量的事情之一。 50%，如果你遵守規定，第二個是他們是否認為——非常主觀，如果他們認為你的燒錢將能夠降低或將繼續維持股東權益，所以這就是推動這一點的原因。因此，它並不是因為繼續在納斯達克上市而受到推動的。

So you just played it safe and it does raise additional capital and if you don't need it, then you don't need it then?

所以你只是謹慎行事，它確實籌集了額外的資金，如果你不需要它，那麼你就不需要它了？

That's right. Yeah, sir. That's -- unfortunately, that's right, exactly. And we went through the same thing last year because of this same issue. Now, what's really important to too is to keep in mind as you move into the rest of this year, if you look at our interest expense line, you'll see that it's pretty meaningful. That the majority -- not a majority, some other rolls off at the end of Q2 because that -- debt's paid back and then the majority of it will roll off in Q3 because that debt's that's paid back. So when you get into Q4 and then next year, that interest expense line is probably a 20% of what it is now. So when we really when you look at that, that's going to be pretty significant.

這是正確的。是的，先生。不幸的是，這是正確的。由於同樣的問題，我們去年也經歷了同樣的事情。現在，真正重要的是要記住，當您進入今年剩餘時間時，如果您查看我們的利息支出線，您會發現它非常有意義。大多數（不是大多數，其他一些）在第二季末滾動，因為債務已償還，然後其中大部分將在第三季滾動，因為債務已償還。因此，當你進入第四季和明年時，利息支出線可能是現在的 20%。因此，當我們真正看到這一點時，這將非常重要。

And then secondly, next year, we also $1,000 a quarter in the state side, depreciation and amortization, no longer running through the books. So we have to amortize the goodwill of all our acquisitions. So at the end of Q4 this year, it's $800,000 a year. So $200,000 will come back to the books starting in Q1 next year. So what's interesting is when you look at that just alone through next year, you're going to pick up probably $600,000, just in non-cash pick our interest expense, which is amortized as well as this stateside goodwill as well. So that will also be a benefit, doesn't impact Q1 or Q2, but it does benefit as we move forward. Starting in Q4 on the interest expense side in Q1, both interest expense and goodwill.

其次，明年我們在國家方面每季也有1,000美元的折舊和攤銷，不再貫穿帳簿。因此，我們必須攤銷所有收購的商譽。因此，到今年第四季末，每年的收入為 80 萬美元。因此，從明年第一季開始，20 萬美元將回到帳簿中。因此，有趣的是，當您只考慮明年的情況時，您將獲得大約 600,000 美元，僅以非現金形式選擇我們的利息費用，該利息費用以及美國本土的商譽也已攤銷。因此，這也將是一個好處，不會影響第一季或第二季度，但隨著我們的前進，它確實會帶來好處。從第四季開始，第一季的利息支出包括利息支出和商譽。

So if you if you put all that stuff together, you anticipate being at least cash flow positive pretty soon. Not to ask you for guidance, but that's what you're anticipating.

因此，如果你把所有這些東西放在一起，你預計至少很快就會出現正現金流。不是要向您尋求指導，但這就是您所期待的。

(Operator Instructions)

（操作員說明）

I'm back on. Sorry, I don't know where I cut off on the -- on my last response.

我又回來了抱歉，我不知道我上次的回覆在哪裡中斷了。

You would have finished talking about the amortization and interest expense.

您已經討論完了攤銷和利息費用。

Yeah. So you'll pick up probably $400,000 in Q4 and then will pick up over $600,000 in Q1 pretty much every quarter going forward. Q1 Q2 and Q3 of next year as well. So it's pretty meaningful as you really think about the earnings shape of the company going forward. Now given the G&A leverage, so that will be going to be a benefit as well to everything that's going forward.

是的。因此，您可能會在第四季度獲得 400,000 美元的收入，然後在第一季幾乎每個季度都會獲得超過 600,000 美元的收入。明年的第一季、第二季和第三季也是如此。因此，當你真正考慮公司未來的獲利狀況時，這是非常有意義的。現在考慮到一般行政費用的槓桿作用，這也將有利於未來的一切。

So without giving formal guidance that you anticipate being cash flow positive then very soon?

那麼，在沒有給出正式指導的情況下，您預期現金流很快就會變成正值嗎？

Yeah, internal cash flow positive. That's right, exactly. And then from a pure on GAAP perspective, yes, we would we think we'd start approaching that as well. Just from a pure GAAP accounting perspective. Q4, you never know because the problem is all these auditors are getting reviewed by the PCAOB, as example, like they were coming back when we're doing our annual and they were asking we had they were asking us for 1,000 invoices to prove that a zipper cost $0.05, and you're like that's not even 1% of the product cost, which is not where they consider significant event. So hopefully, we're done with all -- our others being under PCAOB review because it also just adds a ton of cost. So we -- being public costs of $600,000 in the first quarter alone, I mean it's pretty expensive.

是的，內部現金流為正。沒錯，正是如此。然後，從純粹的公認會計原則的角度來看，是的，我們認為我們也會開始接近這一點。僅從純粹的 GAAP 會計角度來看。Q4，你永遠不知道，因為問題是所有這些審計師都在接受 PCAOB 的審查，例如，當我們進行年度審計時，他們會回來詢問我們是否要求我們提供 1,000 張發票來證明這一點一條拉鍊的成本是0.05 美元，你會覺得這連產品成本的1% 都不到，這不是他們認為的重大事件。所以希望我們已經完成了所有的事情——我們的其他人正在接受 PCAOB 的審查，因為這也只會增加大量的成本。因此，僅第一季我們的公共成本就達到 60 萬美元，我的意思是這是相當昂貴的。

And on a thing for the --

關於一件事--

Yes, that's exactly right. That's exactly right. So we do think that will happen and it will happen as we move to the second half of the year and then continue going forward.

是的，完全正確。完全正確。因此，我們確實認為這將會發生，而且當我們進入下半年並繼續前進時，它就會發生。

Okay, very good. Thank you for the color on that.

好的，非常好。謝謝你的顏色。

Chris Brandi, private investor.

克里斯·布蘭迪，私人投資者。

Good morning. Let me turn of the speaker on the computer on the other room. So I have a PhD in statistics from Moscow State University, And I'm really excited because I've been analyzing the revenue. And I think you could have a like 1,000 to 5,000% increase in revenue in the next two years or so based on all the data I'm looking at, are there any plans to develop a statistical probability model based on probability theory too actively analyzed revenue?

早安.讓我打開另一個房間電腦上的揚聲器。我擁有莫斯科國立大學的統計學博士學位，我真的很興奮，因為我一直在分析收入。我認為根據我正在查看的所有數據，您在未來兩年左右的收入可能會增加 1,000% 到 5,000%，是否有計劃開發基於過於積極分析的概率論的統計概率模型收入？

We don't necessarily look at it that way because we're -- you've got different revenue drivers. And on the wholesale side, you just don't know you don't you're showing a couple of months ahead, but the wholesalers buy based on what's happening in the market right now. So it's more emotional than it is anything else. So it's pretty difficult to predict that. And then as far as e-commerce, it's just steady-state and just especially now that it's ROAS based and the stores you just -- you'll have to figure out where they perform.

我們不一定這麼看，因為我們有不同的收入驅動因素。在批發方面，你只是不知道自己是否會展示未來幾個月的產品，但批發商會根據目前市場上發生的情況進行購買。所以它比其他任何事情都更情緒化。所以很難預測這一點。就電子商務而言，它只是穩定狀態，尤其是現在它是基於 ROAS 的，而且你必須弄清楚商店的表現。

So I think it's probably a little bit harder because my guess is your variability factors will be a lot higher. So all your inputs will have a very high variable factor and or standard -- wide standard deviations, which are make it harder. But I do think, you know, we are coming off the lowest revenue in the second half of last year. We're lapping that obviously, as we lap that we're getting the interest expense back. And then as you move into next year, you get all the stateside goodwill back and then you just continue to build the business. And then I think to people often underestimated when you build small brands and you start building the customer base up as those customers start to repeat what ends up happening is you start to build this base that gets stair step function higher. But once you guys start to get to certain levels, that stair step function starts to become more of a higher slope and less of a stairstep and more -- it's not a hockey stick.

所以我認為這可能有點困難，因為我的猜測是你的可變因素會更高。因此，您的所有輸入都將具有非常高的可變因子和/或標準 - 寬標準偏差，這使得它變得更加困難。但我確實認為，你知道，我們正在擺脫去年下半年的最低收入。顯然，我們正在重複這一點，因為我們正在重複這一點，我們正在收回利息費用。然後，當你進入明年時，你會收回所有美國本土的商譽，然後你就可以繼續發展業務。然後我認為，當你建立小品牌並開始建立客戶群時，人們經常會低估，因為這些客戶開始重複，最終發生的事情是你開始建立這個基礎，使階梯功能更高。但是一旦你們開始達到一定的水平，樓梯台階的功能就開始變得更多的是更高的坡度，而不是樓梯等等——它不是曲棍球棒。

The stare step function, okay. Now you're speaking my language.

凝視步功能還行。現在你說的是我的語言。

Yeah. So I think that's -- and we're still in that stair step function space because most of our brands are small. But what ends up happening is we're starting to see that stair-step function get a higher slope. And I think that's the big difference here is you're going to start to see that, and you see it all the time with brand called J. Hilburn that went through the same thing. It was just slow and steady all of sudden you get into certain markets and your brand and then it goes up to the right because there's a virality coefficient that happens when you get a certain amount of repeat customers in your customer base. So every quarter that goes by, you get closer and closer to that moment of virality, basically based on just the number of customers in your base.

是的。所以我認為，我們仍然處於階梯功能空間，因為我們的大多數品牌都很小。但最終發生的事情是我們開始看到階梯函數的斜率更高。我認為這裡最大的區別是你會開始看到這一點，而且你一直看到 J. Hilburn 品牌經歷過同樣的事情。它只是緩慢而穩定地突然進入某些市場和你的品牌，然後它會向右上升，因為當你在你的客戶群中獲得一定數量的回頭客時，就會出現病毒式傳播係數。因此，每過一個季度，您就會越來越接近病毒式傳播的時刻，這基本上取決於您的基礎中的客戶數量。

Wow. Awesome. I honestly -- I'm going to increase my personal price target in the next two to three years to probably a 10,000% revenue increase?

哇。驚人的。老實說，我將在未來兩到三年內將我的個人價格目標提高到收入成長 10,000%？

Yeah, I can't comment on that, but I definitely think we have the ability to grow revenue. And I think a lot of it is just awareness to I mean, when you look at some of these bigger brands that are out there, even ones that are performing like Allbirds or you've got Warby Parker that's starting to perform. A lot of it's just they had lot of money they raised, hundreds of millions of dollars in the private market built a ton of brand awareness. They built a customer bases that is basically repeat. And that's that's really what it is all you're doing. All they did was take the normal time line to growth and shrunk it by raising a lot of capital. We're obviously not raising that amount of capital. So our timeline isn't as short as theirs, but it's the same path and process.

是的，我無法對此發表評論，但我絕對認為我們有能力增加收入。我認為這很大程度上只是意識，我的意思是，當你看到一些更大的品牌時，即使是像 Allbirds 這樣表現出色的品牌，或者已經開始表現出色的 Warby Parker 品牌。這很大程度上是因為他們籌集了大量資金，在私人市場上籌集了數億美元，建立了大量的品牌知名度。他們建立了一個基本上是重複的客戶群。這就是你所做的一切。他們所做的只是按照正常的成長時間表，並透過籌集大量資金來縮短成長時間表。我們顯然不會籌集那麼多資金。所以我們的時間軸沒有他們那麼短，但是路徑和流程是一樣的。

Wow, I'm definitely a fan of Allbirds, I've heard from them, and I really like their shoes. I think they're very forward thinking and very unique functional and cool.

哇，我絕對是 Allbirds 的粉絲，我聽說過他們的消息，而且我真的很喜歡他們的鞋子。我認為它們非常具有前瞻性，功能非常獨特，而且很酷。

Yeah, they've done a nice job and they raised a lot of money they have stores. The stores will work for them. Some have some haven't and I think that goes back to the original where it's Warby Parker stores are working better than Allbirds stores, but you never know. And we look at stores at other brands all the time. And we know that this formula works, you have stores, you have e-commerce and you have wholesale and that's you want a healthy mix there. And if you have all three of those oars in the water, then you end up building a good business because you're in all the channels. So that's how we think around it.

是的，他們做得很好，他們籌集了很多錢，他們開了商店。商店將為他們工作。有些有，有些沒有，我認為這可以追溯到最初，Warby Parker 商店比 Allbirds 商店運作得更好，但你永遠不知道。我們一直在尋找其他品牌的商店。我們知道這個公式是有效的，你有商店，你有電子商務，你有批發，那就是你想要一個健康的組合。如果你把這三支槳都放在水中，那麼你最終會建立一個良好的業務，因為你在所有的渠道中。這就是我們的想法。

Right. Now, what would you say to all the ridiculous hitters who say, oh, you're a digital company opening up physical stores this this will never work well, garbage blah-blah-blah?

正確的。現在，你會對那些說「哦，你是一家開設實體店的數位公司，這永遠不會運作得很好，垃圾等等」的可笑擊球手說什麼？

Well, I mean Warby Parker, I think everyone would argue as a digital company as well, and they have over 170 stores. Allbirds is also a digital company, they have something like 65 stores, Marine layer digital company, they're private. I think they have over 40 stores, Buck Mason also a digital company has over 27 stores. I can keep naming them right.

嗯，我的意思是 Warby Parker，我想每個人都會認為它是一家數位公司，他們擁有 170 多家商店。Allbirds 也是一家數位公司，他們有 65 家商店，Marine 層數位公司，他們是私人的。我認為他們有超過 40 家商店，Buck Mason 也是一家數位公司，擁有超過 27 家商店。我可以繼續正確地命名它們。

Just because your digital first, and that's how you are born or what you're doing doesn't mean you ignore where you can drive revenue. So it's pretty lowbrown thinking or low IQ thinking and I think what you have to realize too si like -- when I launched J. Hilburn I was at Citadel Investment Group. I was covering restaurants retail. I covered Amazon and Jeff Bezos forever. And he always said that they struggled in apparel. That was the number one category they struggled in and if you look at the data today, where they do well in apparel is basics. They don't do well with branded e-commerce. And the reason I always said is that apparel is touch, see, fill, fit. So Jeff Bezos, who's probably one of the smartest people have ever seen run a business.

僅僅因為您的數位化優先，這就是您的出生方式或您正在做的事情，並不意味著您忽略了可以增加收入的地方。所以這是相當低俗的思維或低智商的思維，我認為你必須意識到這一點——當我創辦 J. Hilburn 時，我在 Citadel Investment Group。我負責報道餐廳零售業。我永遠報道了亞馬遜和傑夫貝佐斯。他總是說他們在服裝方面舉步維艱。這是他們苦苦掙扎的第一大類別，如果你看看今天的數據，你會發現他們在服裝領域表現出色的是基本款。他們在品牌電子商務方面表現不佳。我總是說服裝是觸感、視覺、填充、合身的。傑夫貝佐斯可能是有史以來經營企業最聰明的人之一。

That is the methodology. I have a theory that in the future. As time goes on close, we'll generally start to become brandless, people will just say, you know, I want just the cheapest coolest denim possible. And I don't care what brand it is. As things start to go more online and online and more digital in the future. I think that's going to be a trend. And I got to tell you I regret not buying Amazon stock in the '90s. I think I had some music land stock. Yeah, wow.

這就是方法論。我有一個理論，就是在未來。隨著時間的推移，我們通常會開始變得無品牌，人們只會說，你知道，我想要最便宜、最酷的牛仔布。而且我也不在乎它是什麼品牌。隨著未來事物開始變得更加在線、更加在線、更加數位化。我認為這將成為一種趨勢。我必須告訴你，我很遺憾沒有在 90 年代購買亞馬遜股票。我想我有一些音樂土地庫存。是的，哇。

But I think that's the key, right? I mean, if you look at J. Crew, they were catalog, they started opening stores. Their revenues just went through the roof, right? Because then you go in, you're this size, you like this product. As you continue to keep that fit and make to that product quality, then they go online and buy. So I think what people miss is that in apparel, you acquiring the physical and you retain in the digital, it's that simple. So the whole point is you need a good customer acquisition trap. And I think that's where wholesale comes in. And I think that's where stores come in.

但我認為這是關鍵，對嗎？我的意思是，如果你看看 J. Crew，你會發現他們是目錄，他們開始開設商店。他們的收入剛剛飆升，對嗎？因為當你進去後，你就是這個尺寸，你喜歡這個產品。當您繼續保持健康並提高產品品質時，他們就會上網購買。所以我認為人們錯過的是，在服裝領域，你獲得了實體，並保留在數字中，就這麼簡單。所以重點是你需要一個好的客戶獲取陷阱。我認為這就是批發的用武之地。我認為這就是商店發揮作用的地方。

And then your digital becomes their attention engine, right? And that's your profitability engine too. Because you're not spending as much to acquire customer. So I think that's where people miss it. And again, I go back to -- I think everyone argue, Jeff Bezos a pretty smart guy built a pretty big business. He go back and read all his case and his earnings report in his earnings call. And he will tell you they couldn't crack retail or apparel. So they can't crack apparel and he is spending more money and more time against that than anyone in this room. And if you add it all are accused together is probably smarter than all that too.

然後你的數位設備就成為他們的注意力引擎，對嗎？這也是您的獲利引擎。因為你沒有花那麼多錢來獲取客戶。所以我認為這就是人們錯過的地方。我再次回到——我想每個人都認為，傑夫·貝佐斯是一個非常聰明的人，建立了一個相當大的企業。他回去並在財報電話會議上閱讀了所有案例和收益報告。他會告訴你他們無法攻克零售業或服裝業。所以他們無法破解服裝，而他為此花費的金錢和時間比這個房間裡的任何人都多。如果你把它加在一起，所有的人都被指控可能也比這更聰明。

That tells you a lot, right. So I think that's why you have to have all three you can't look at it is just because your digital first doesn't mean your digital only. You can't be digital-only, you can't be wholesale only and you can't be store only. You have to have all the oars in the water at once, and that's just the reality of it. And the mixes will shift as the consumer shifts, right? I mean, during COVID, there were no stores to go into. So digital was massive. As People have come out of COVID, they want to shop. And so you need to follow the customer, you don't follow a business principle and say, no, we're only digital.

這告訴你很多，對吧。所以我認為這就是為什麼你必須擁有這三個你不能看的原因只是因為你的數字第一並不意味著你只有數字。你不能只做數位產品，你不能只做批發，你不能只做商店。你必須同時將所有槳放入水中，這就是現實。隨著消費者的變化，產品組合也會發生變化，對吧？我的意思是，在新冠疫情期間，沒有商店可以進去。所以數位化是巨大的。隨著人們走出新冠疫情，他們想要購物。所以你需要跟隨客戶，你不能遵循商業原則並說，不，我們只是數位化的。

And the customers wrong. They don't -- they want to shop in stores, but we're not going to do that because we're smarter than them. That's not a good recipe for success, but the problem is that people online are oftentimes sadly, one standard deviation tankers. So they only think to that one piece and not like, oh, what we'd like if you do pull X, what happens in Y, Z and A downstream and how does that impact what you need to do.

而顧客錯了。他們不想——他們想在商店購物，但我們不會這樣做，因為我們比他們聰明。這不是成功的良方，但問題是，可悲的是，網路上的人常常是一個標準差油輪。所以他們只考慮這一點，而不是想，哦，如果你拉 X，我們會想要什麼，Y、Z 和 A 下游會發生什麼，以及這會如何影響你需要做的事情。

This concludes today's conference and you may disconnect your lines at this time. Thank you for your participation.

今天的會議到此結束，您現在可以掛斷電話了。感謝您的參與。