Diebold Nixdorf Inc (DBD) 2024 Q4 法說會逐字稿

完整原文

使用警語:中文譯文來源為 Google 翻譯,僅供參考,實際內容請以英文原文為主

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Hello. Good day, and welcome to Diebold Nixdorf's fourth quarter and full year 2024 earnings call. My name is Bella, and I'll be coordinating today's call. (Operator instructions)

    你好。大家好,歡迎參加 Diebold Nixdorf 2024 年第四季和全年財報電話會議。我叫貝拉,我將負責協調今天的電話會議。(操作員指示)

  • I'd now like to turn the call over to our host, Chris Sikora, Vice President of Investor Relations. Chris, please go ahead.

    現在我想將電話轉給我們的主持人、投資者關係副總裁克里斯·西科拉 (Chris Sikora)。克里斯,請繼續。

  • Christopher Sikora - Vice President - Business Finance Operations

    Christopher Sikora - Vice President - Business Finance Operations

  • Hello, everyone, and welcome to our fourth quarter and full year 2024 earnings call. To accompany our prepared remarks, we posted our slide presentation to the Investor Relations section of our website.

    大家好,歡迎參加我們的 2024 年第四季和全年財報電話會議。為了配合我們準備好的發言,我們將幻燈片簡報發佈到了我們網站的投資者關係部分。

  • Before we start, I will remind all participants that you will hear forward-looking statements during this call. These statements reflect the expectations and beliefs of our management team at the time of the call, but they are subject to certain risks that could cause actual results to differ materially from these statements.

    在我們開始之前,我要提醒所有參與者,你們將在本次電話會議中聽到前瞻性的陳述。這些聲明反映了我們管理團隊在電話會議時的期望和信念,但它們受某些風險的影響,可能導致實際結果與這些聲明有重大差異。

  • You can find additional information on these factors in the company's periodic and annual filings with the SEC. Participants should be mindful that subsequent events may render this information to be out of date. We will also be discussing certain non-GAAP financial measures on today's call. As noted on slide 3, a reconciliation between GAAP and non-GAAP measures can be found in the supplemental schedules of the presentation.

    您可以在公司向美國證券交易委員會提交的定期和年度文件中找到有關這些因素的更多資​​訊。參與者應注意,後續事件可能會使該資訊過時。我們還將在今天的電話會議上討論某些非公認會計準則財務指標。如投影片 3 所示,可以在簡報的補充附表中找到 GAAP 和非 GAAP 指標之間的對帳。

  • With that, I'll turn the call over to Octavio. Thank you, Chris, and thank you all for joining us today.

    說完這些,我會把電話轉給 Octavio。謝謝你,克里斯,也謝謝大家今天加入我們。

  • Octavio Marquez - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Octavio Marquez - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Beginning on slide 4, our focus on execution, accountability and exceeding customer expectations resulted in a strong performance in 2024. Throughout the year, our teams were executing to drive higher profitability and stronger free cash flow. We were successful on both fronts, delivering $452 million of adjusted EBITDA, above the high end of our guidance range and $109 million of free cash flow, which is the company's best performance since the formation of Diebold Nixdorf in 2016.

    從第 4 張投影片開始,我們專注於執行、責任和超越客戶期望,從而在 2024 年取得了強勁的業績。全年,我們的團隊都在努力提高獲利能力和增強自由現金流。我們在這兩個方面都取得了成功,實現了 4.52 億美元的調整後 EBITDA,高於我們指導範圍的高端,並實現了 1.09 億美元的自由現金流,這是公司自 2016 年 Diebold Nixdorf 成立以來的最佳業績。

  • Additionally, implementing lean operations has created a solid foundation for gross margin expansion in 2025. We are targeting another year of significant improvement. with low single-digit revenue growth, adjusted EBITDA in the range of $470 million to $490 million and nearly doubling our free cash flow. I am extremely proud of our global Diebold Nixdorf team. We delivered on our commitments in 2024 and show consistent progress towards our long-term goals. We remain focused on accelerating our growth as a high-performing banking and retail technology leader.

    此外,實施精實營運為2025年毛利率擴張奠定了堅實的基礎。我們的目標是在新的一年裡取得顯著進步。營收成長率維持在個位數以下,調整後的 EBITDA 在 4.7 億美元至 4.9 億美元之間,自由現金流幾乎翻了一番。我為我們全球的 Diebold Nixdorf 團隊感到無比自豪。我們在 2024 年兌現了承諾,並在實現長期目標方面取得了持續進展。我們將繼續致力於加速成長,成為高績效銀行和零售技術領導者。

  • Moving to slide 5. It is an exciting time at Diebold Nixdorf. We have taken numerous steps to position the company for long-term success and create value for our customers and shareholders. Activity across our banking and retail end markets remains healthy, and we entered the year with approximately $800 million of product backlog. This normalized level represents roughly six months of product revenue for the year.

    移至投影片 5。這是 Diebold Nixdorf 令人興奮的時刻。我們已採取多項措施,確保公司長期成功,並為我們的客戶和股東創造價值。我們的銀行和零售終端市場活動依然保持健康,今年我們的產品積壓訂單約為 8 億美元。這一標準化水準大約相當於當年六個月的產品收入。

  • We closed the year strong in banking, securing major deals, including a large agreement with a top three US bank for new DN Series ATMs and three years of attached services. We continue expanding globally in emerging markets, winning major contracts in Asia Pacific, Brazil and the Middle East as customers around the world enhance and grow their self-service channels. We are delivering the innovation our customers demand to increase self-service adoption and drive higher operational efficiency.

    我們在銀行業務方面取得了強勁的業績,達成了多項重大交易,包括與美國三大銀行之一達成的關於新型 DN 系列 ATM 機和三年附加服務的大型協議。隨著全球客戶不斷增強和發展自助服務管道,我們繼續在全球新興市場擴張,贏得了亞太地區、巴西和中東地區的主要合約。我們正在提供客戶所需的創新,以提高自助服務的採用率並提高營運效率。

  • Last week, we proudly announced a major milestone, shipping 200,000 of our DN Series ATMs. We are very excited to lead the accelerating ATM refresh cycle with our DN Series solution as cash recycling gains traction with financial institutions around the world. Importantly, cash recycling technology is beginning to move beyond the ATM and into the branch cash management ecosystem.

    上週,我們很自豪地宣布了一個重要的里程碑,即我們的 DN 系列 ATM 機出貨量已達 20 萬台。隨著現金循環利用越來越受到世界各地金融機構的關注,我們非常高興能夠透過 DN 系列解決方案引領加速的 ATM 更新週期。重要的是,現金循環技術開始超越 ATM,進入分公司現金管理生態系統。

  • In 2024, we introduced our advanced teller recycling unit, which will expand the bank's ability to improve their efficiency, managing cash at the branch level. This is a key differentiator for us. In retail, we reinforced our leadership position in self-checkout technology and service with large wins in Europe. We also strengthened our presence in the North American market with leading quick-serve restaurant brands.

    2024 年,我們推出了先進的櫃員回收裝置,這將擴大銀行提高效率的能力,在分行層級管理現金。這是我們的一個關鍵區別因素。在零售業,我們在歐洲取得巨大勝利,鞏固了我們在自助結帳技術和服務的領導地位。我們也透過領先的快餐店品牌加強了我們在北美市場的地位。

  • In January, we attended the National Retail Federation Big Show in New York, where we showcased our AI capabilities to combat shrink-related loss throughout the store as well as innovation to speed up the checkout process. While there, I had the opportunity to meet with many of the world's largest retailers who express the need for exactly the kind of technology we excel at delivery.

    今年 1 月,我們參加了在紐約舉行的全國零售聯合會大型展會,展示了我們利用人工智慧技術來應對整個商店的損耗,以及加快結帳流程的創新。在那裡,我有機會與世界上許多最大的零售商會面,他們表示需要我們在配送方面所擅長的那種技術。

  • During the show, we announced a new agreement with Grup Mosquetiers, a French retailer with major brands like Intermarche to enhance its self-service checkout and help reduce shrink. We are also excited to continue building our retail market presence in North America, which represents an attractive growth opportunity for our solutions.

    展會期間,我們宣布與擁有 Intermarche 等主要品牌的法國零售商 Grup Mosquetiers 達成新協議,以增強其自助結帳服務並協助減少損耗。我們也很高興繼續在北美建立我們的零售市場,這對我們的解決方案來說是一個有吸引力的成長機會。

  • Our strong performance in 2024 has enabled us to start returning capital to shareholders. In 2024, we paid down $338 million of debt. And today, we announced a new $100 million share repurchase authorization. This represents a major milestone for the company and underscores our commitment to delivering significant long-term shareholder value. Tom will spend more time on our capital allocation framework later in the presentation.

    我們在 2024 年的強勁表現使我們能夠開始向股東返還資本。2024年,我們償還了3.38億美元的債務。今天,我們宣布了新的 1 億美元股票回購授權。這對公司來說是一個重要的里程碑,並強調了我們致力於實現長期股東價值的承諾。湯姆將在稍後的演講中花更多時間討論我們的資本配置框架。

  • Moving to slide 6. We are improving our operational performance by implementing better processes and eliminating waste. In 2024, we started our lean and continuous improvement journey by driving excellence in our manufacturing, supply chain and logistics environment. Throughout the year, we conducted approximately 45 Kitan events that positively impacted safety, quality, delivery and cost.

    移至幻燈片 6。我們正在透過實施更好的流程和消除浪費來提高我們的營運績效。2024 年,我們透過推動製造、供應鏈和物流環境的卓越發展,開始了精益和持續改善之旅。全年我們舉辦了大約 45 場 Kitan 活動,對安全、品質、交付和成本產生了積極影響。

  • For safety, our team members are our most valuable asset. We achieved a reduction of greater than 30% in lost employee time, ensuring our team members remain safe conducting their daily routine. Looking at quality, our teams realized approximately a 33% reduction in manufacturing defects, saving time and money on our production lines.

    為了安全起見,我們的團隊成員是我們最寶貴的財富。我們將員工損失時間減少了 30% 以上,確保我們的團隊成員能夠安全地進行日常工作。從品質來看,我們的團隊發現製造缺陷減少了約 33%,從而節省了生產線的時間和金錢。

  • For delivery, we achieved a 20% increase in on-time delivery, improving customer satisfaction and reducing lead times. And finally, looking at cost, our focus on safety, quality and delivery helped our teams achieve targeted cost reduction expectations for the year, supporting our expanded product gross margin in 2024. As we move into 2025, we are accelerating our lean and continuous improvement journey on the service side of operations.

    在交貨方面,我們實現了準時交貨率提高 20%,提高了客戶滿意度並縮短了交貨時間。最後,從成本來看,我們對安全、品質和交付的關注幫助我們的團隊實現了今年的成本削減目標,支持了我們在 2024 年提高產品毛利率。隨著我們邁入 2025 年,我們正在加速營運服務的精實和持續改善之旅。

  • The example you see on the page is a facility in Toronto, Canada, crucial to our North America service operations, where we completed a successful Kaizen event in which we identified several opportunities to address storage inefficiencies and implement a more efficient flow of materials. I anticipate we will see continued measurable improvement in our service operations throughout the year.

    您在頁面上看到的範例是位於加拿大多倫多的一家工廠,該工廠對我們的北美服務營運至關重要,我們在那裡完成了一次成功的 Kaizen 活動,在活動中我們發現了幾個解決儲存效率低下問題和實現更有效率的物料流動的機會。我預計,我們的服務營運將全年持續取得顯著改善。

  • With that, I will turn the call over to Tom to go through our financial results.

    說完這些,我會把電話轉給湯姆,讓他來報告我們的財務結果。

  • Thomas Timko - Executive Vice President, Chief Financial Officer & Principal Accounting Officer

    Thomas Timko - Executive Vice President, Chief Financial Officer & Principal Accounting Officer

  • Thank you, Octavio. Before going into the fourth quarter financial results, I want to highlight two changes in the presentation of our financial information in our earnings materials. We received an SEC comment letter addressing two areas of our financial disclosure. The first being the combination of successor and predecessor periods in 2023 and the second being treatment of fresh start accounting amortization as a non-GAAP item.

    謝謝你,奧克塔維奧。在介紹第四季財務表現之前,我想先強調一下我們收益材料中財務資訊呈現方式的兩項變更。我們收到了美國證券交易委員會的一封評論信,其中涉及我們財務揭露的兩個方面。第一個是 2023 年後續期間和前任期間的結合,第二個是將全新開始會計攤銷作為非 GAAP 項目處理。

  • On the first item, going forward, our disclosures will no longer make direct comparisons to combining predecessor and successor periods in 2023 as our successor and predecessor financials reflect post reorganization and pre-reorganization Diebold Nixdorf, respectively. Further, full year 2024 comparisons relative to the prior partial year successor period are not meaningful. As such, we are not providing any 2024 full year comparisons against full year 2023.

    關於第一項,展望未來,我們的揭露將不再直接與 2023 年的前任和繼任期間的合併進行比較,因為我們的繼任者和前任的財務狀況分別反映了重組後和重組前的 Diebold Nixdorf。此外,2024 年全年與先前部分年份後續時期的比較沒有意義。因此,我們不會提供 2024 年全年與 2023 年全年的任何比較。

  • Next, looking at the second item, treatment of Fresh start-related intangible amortization as a non-GAAP item. Starting this quarter, we will no longer adjust for this item in our presentation. It is important to remember that Fresh start accounting amortization is a noncash, nonoperational item. So this fiscal '24 reporting change does not impact revenue, EBITDA or free cash flow results. What you will see in our earnings release is our Fresh Start valuation created $900 million of intangible assets.

    接下來,請看第二項,將與 Fresh start 相關的無形資產攤銷作為非 GAAP 項目處理。從本季開始,我們將不再在演示中調整此項。重要的是要記住,新開始會計攤銷是一種非現金、非營運項目。因此,24 財年的報告變更不會影響收入、EBITDA 或自由現金流結果。您將在我們的收益報告中看到,我們的「Fresh Start」估值創造了價值 9 億美元的無形資產。

  • Post emergence, the amortization related to these assets was backed out of operating profit as a non-GAAP item in order to facilitate comparisons to the predecessor run rates. Importantly, our conversations with the SEC have concluded. And going forward, this is how we will present results. In order to help you update your models, we are providing the prior five quarters going back to 4Q '23. The information on all the remaining slides in this deck speaks to these changes.

    上市後,與這些資產相關的攤銷會作為非 GAAP 項目從營業利潤中扣除,以便於與前任的運行率進行比較。重要的是,我們與美國證券交易委員會的對話已經結束。展望未來,我們將如此呈現成果。為了幫助您更新模型,我們提供了截至 2023 年第四季的前五個季度的數據。本簡報中所有剩餘投影片上的資訊都說明了這些變更。

  • The resulting impact of this change is a lower gross margin baseline due to increased amortization. However, as I just mentioned, this has no impact on revenue, EBITDA or free cash flow in fiscal '24 as all changes are noncash and nonoperational. We have included updates in the earnings release accordingly, and you can reach out to my Investor Relations team with any questions.

    這項變更導致的影響是由於攤銷增加而導致的毛利率基準降低。但是,正如我剛才提到的,這對 24 財年的收入、EBITDA 或自由現金流沒有影響,因為所有變化都是非現金和非營運的。我們已在收益報告中相應地添加了更新內容,如有任何疑問,您可以聯繫我的投資者關係團隊。

  • Moving to slide 8, you can see that we are providing a five-quarter financial trend in our materials in response to these changes. This highlights our updated disclosures and demonstrates our strong performance since emerging from bankruptcy almost 18 months ago. Overall, we delivered on all of our commitments for the year. 2024 revenue was $3.75 billion, with a strong contribution from banking product as we continue to refresh our global ATM installed base with our DN Series ATMs and drive increased cash recycler adoption.

    翻到第 8 張投影片,您可以看到我們在材料中提供了針對這些變化的五個季度的財務趨勢。這凸顯了我們最新的披露信息,並展示了我們自近 18 個月前擺脫破產以來的強勁表現。總體而言,我們履行了今年的所有承諾。 2024 年營收為 37.5 億美元,銀行產品貢獻巨大,因為我們繼續透過 DN 系列 ATM 更新全球 ATM 安裝基礎,並推動現金循環機的採用率提高。

  • Service and software attach rates to our hardware sales remain strong. Service revenue of $2.15 billion represents 55% of total revenue and 70% of that is reoccurring in nature. Gross margin for the full year 2024 improved 300 basis points compared to the jumping off point in 4Q '23 after the changes in financial presentation. Operationally, this was driven by pricing discipline and the impact of lean operating principles.

    我們的硬體銷售的服務和軟體附加率仍然很高。21.5 億美元的服務收入佔總收入的 55%,其中 70% 為經常性收入。財務呈現方式改變後,2024 年全年毛利率較 2023 年第四季的起點提高了 300 個基點。從營運角度來看,這是由定價紀律和精實營運原則的影響所驅動的。

  • As we discussed in our last earnings call, gross margin will vary each quarter based on geographic and product mix. In Q4, margins were in line with our expectations and full year margin ended strong at 25.3%. We are shipping our first fit-for-purpose ATMs in the APAC region in the second quarter of '25. We expect that this will help us improve full year gross margin year-over-year.

    正如我們在上次收益電話會議上所討論的那樣,毛利率將根據地理位置和產品組合而每個季度發生變化。第四季的利潤率符合我們的預期,全年利潤率強勁達到 25.3%。我們將於 2025 年第二季在亞太地區推出首批適用的 ATM。我們預計這將有助於我們提高全年毛利率。

  • Turning to operating expense. We continue to maintain our cost discipline. 2024 financial results include a full year of normalized incentive compensation, which is the primary driver behind the increase.

    談到營運費用。我們將繼續保持成本控制。 2024 年的財務表現包括全年的正常化激勵薪酬,這是成長的主要驅動力。

  • Continuing on to slide 9. We remain focused on actions that will improve operating leverage. Our go-forward model contemplates higher margin revenue growth dropping through to the bottom line, combined with gross margin expansion through continuous improvement and operating expense discipline. We delivered adjusted EBITDA of $452 million in 2024, which benefited from our supply chain and service excellence initiatives that drove margin expansion throughout the year.

    繼續看投影片 9。我們將繼續專注於提高經營槓桿的行動。我們的未來模式是考慮到更高的利潤收入成長,並結合透過持續改善和營運費用控制來擴大毛利率。2024 年,我們的調整後 EBITDA 達到 4.52 億美元,這得益於我們的供應鏈和服務卓越舉措,推動了全年利潤率的擴大。

  • Full year adjusted EBITDA margin was 12.1% -- in Q4, we generated $186 million of free cash flow and a record $109 million for the full year. This is a solid start on our journey to improve free cash flow, driven by higher adjusted EBITDA, stronger working capital efficiency and lower professional fees. Additionally, we addressed all corporate restructuring-related headwinds impacting free cash flow in 2024. This is just the beginning as we aim to nearly double full year free cash flow in 2025.

    全年調整後的 EBITDA 利潤率為 12.1%——第四季度,我們產生了 1.86 億美元的自由現金流,全年創下了 1.09 億美元的紀錄。這是我們改善自由現金流的良好開端,這得益於更高的調整後 EBITDA、更強的營運資本效率和更低的專業費用。此外,我們也解決了所有影響 2024 年自由現金流的企業重組相關不利因素。這只是個開始,我們的目標是到 2025 年將全年自由現金流增加近一倍。

  • Turning to slide 10. Banking delivered a solid year in 2024 with improving revenue and profitability trends. We continue to see strong ATM refresh activity and the adoption of recycle. We are encouraged by the stable recurring revenue we are seeing in service, where we consistently delivered approximately $400 million each quarter. We also delivered more than 25% gross margin for the full year, driven by our strong pricing discipline while also achieving our targets for service gross margin in the fourth quarter.

    翻到第 10 張投影片。2024 年,銀行業表現穩健,收入和獲利趨勢不斷改善。我們繼續看到強勁的 ATM 更新活動和回收的採用。我們對服務業務中穩定的經常性收入感到鼓舞,我們每季持續提供約 4 億美元的收入。由於我們嚴格的定價紀律,我們全年的毛利率也超過了 25%,同時我們也在第四季度實現了服務毛利率的目標。

  • Looking to the first half of this year, we will ship our first fit-for-purpose ATMs in the APAC region in the second quarter of '25 and launch our branch automation solutions aimed at optimizing the end-to-end branch cash ecosystem. Adding these solutions to our portfolio gives us confidence as we look at our runway in 2025, focused on higher-margin revenue growth.

    展望今年上半年,我們將於2025年第二季在亞太地區推出首批適用的 ATM,並推出旨在優化端到端分公司現金生態系統的分公司自動化解決方案。將這些解決方案添加到我們的產品組合中,讓我們對 2025 年的發展充滿信心,專注於更高利潤的收入成長。

  • Moving to slide 11. The macro environment continues to impact retail product revenue, but our team is seeing signs of stabilization with sequential quarter improvement in revenue and gross profit. Q4 sequential quarter revenue was up 15.7% with growth across both product and service. This is two quarters in a row of sequential revenue growth. Gross profit was up sequentially as we continue to implement our lean operating principles and improved pricing discipline.

    移至投影片 11。宏觀環境繼續影響零售產品收入,但我們的團隊看到了穩定的跡象,收入和毛利逐季改善。第四季環比營收成長 15.7%,產品和服務均實現成長。這是連續兩個季度的收入成長。由於我們持續實施精實營運原則和改善定價紀律,毛利環比上升。

  • We are confident in our ability to improve service margins in 2025, given that most of our self-service deliveries represent new deployments in the market. Despite near-term market challenges, the long-term outlook in retail remains positive with a recovery in the second half of 2025.

    鑑於我們的大多數自助服務交付都代表著市場上的新部署,我們有信心在 2025 年提高服務利潤率。儘管短期內市場面臨挑戰,但零售業的長期前景依然樂觀,預計 2025 年下半年將出現復甦。

  • On slide 12, 2024 was a strong year for DN, where we delivered on our financial commitments for the year. Given this momentum, our 2025 financial outlook reflects meaningful improvement in revenue, adjusted EBITDA and free cash flow. We expect total revenue to be flat to up low single digits, including a 3% to 4% unfavorable impact from FX for the year. The guidance in constant currency contemplates banking up low single digits year-over-year with growth across both product and service, retail up low single digits year-over-year with the second half recovery.

    在第 12 張投影片上,2024 年對 DN 來說是強勁的一年,我們履行了當年的財務承諾。鑑於這一勢頭,我們的 2025 年財務展望反映出收入、調整後 EBITDA 和自由現金流的顯著改善。我們預計總收入將持平或略有上升,其中包括全年外匯 3% 至 4% 的不利影響。以固定匯率計算,預計銀行業務年增低個位數,產品和服務均實現成長,零售業務年增低個位數,下半年將出現復甦。

  • As it relates to the quarterly cadence, revenue is more weighted towards the second half of the year with a 45% first half and 55% second half. This split is based on customer orders currently in backlog. Also, in the first half of the year, the second quarter is expected to be a couple of basis points stronger than the first quarter as a percent of revenue. We are continuing to work with our customers and drive operational improvements to deliver a more linear year.

    就季度節奏而言,收入更集中在下半年,上半年佔 45%,下半年佔 55%。此劃分基於當前積壓的客戶訂單。此外,今年上半年,預計第二季的營收百分比將比第一季高出幾個基點。我們將繼續與客戶合作,推動營運改進,以實現更線性的一年。

  • In 2025, we expect adjusted EBITDA to be in the range of $470 million to $490 million. Our improvement is primarily driven by continued focus on service gross margin expansion through lean operations and maintaining operating expense discipline. There is an opportunity for improvement in services with the team targeting 100 basis points of gross margin expansion. In manufacturing, we expect small incremental improvement in full year product gross margin. Free cash flow is expected to be in the range of $190 million to $210 million, representing approximately plus 40% free cash flow conversion.

    2025 年,我們預計調整後的 EBITDA 將在 4.7 億美元至 4.9 億美元之間。我們的改進主要得益於透過精益營運和維持營運費用紀律繼續關注服務毛利率的擴大。該團隊的目標是將毛利率提高 100 個基點,從而有機會改善服務。在製造業,我們預計全年產品毛利率將小幅提升。預計自由現金流將在 1.9 億美元至 2.1 億美元之間,相當於自由現金流轉換率約 40%。

  • Now moving on to slide 13 with more details on our free cash flow outlook. There is nothing more important to the company than strengthening our free cash flow. We are pleased with our progress so far, particularly in our ability to clear the decks in 2024 relating to our corporate restructuring, which positions us well for 2025.

    現在轉到第 13 張投影片,其中詳細介紹了我們的自由現金流前景。對公司來說,沒有什麼比加強我們的自由現金流更重要。我們對迄今為止的進展感到滿意,特別是我們能夠在 2024 年完成公司重組,這為我們在 2025 年取得的成績做好了準備。

  • Building off our strong momentum in 2024, we have line of sight to delivering on our free cash flow guidance range based on the debt financing we completed in December that provides approximately $70 million in annual interest savings, approximately $30 million contribution from higher adjusted EBITDA using the midpoint of the guidance range, driven primarily by service margin expansion, approximately a $20 million contribution from reduced professional fees related to corporate restructuring, and we are also factoring into a bridge a $30 million impact from strategic investments, including CapEx, combined with the impact of strong accounts receivable harvesting in 2024.

    憑藉我們在 2024 年的強勁勢頭,我們預計將實現基於 12 月完成的債務融資的自由現金流指導範圍,該融資可提供約 7,000 萬美元的年度利息節省,使用指導範圍中點的更高調整後 EBITDA 貢獻約 3,000 萬美元,主要受投資率擴大率擴大的專業支出,與公司重組相關的資金3,000 萬美元影響與 2024 年強勁的應收帳款收割的影響結合起來。

  • This outlines what we can achieve next year as we drive towards our goal of best-in-class free cash flow conversion of plus 60% over the next three years. It is also worth noting we will be providing additional details on our longer-term business and financial outlook at our Investor Day on February '26, in New York City. Please mark your calendars and plan to join us for the morning as we cover our value creation framework for customers and shareholders. Please reach out to Investor Relations team for more information.

    這概述了我們明年可以實現的目標,因為我們正努力實現未來三年內最佳自由現金流轉換率超過 60% 的目標。另外值得注意的是,我們將在 2 月 26 日於紐約舉行的投資者日上提供有關我們長期業務和財務前景的更多詳細資訊。請在日曆上標記併計劃在上午加入我們,因為我們將討論為客戶和股東創造價值的框架。請聯絡投資者關係團隊以獲取更多資訊。

  • Turning to slide 14. Since our corporate restructuring in 2023, we have been focused on building a fortress balance sheet. Our actions have created significant shareholder value with our stock more than doubling since that period. At the end of the year, we have more than $600 million of liquidity comprised of $328 million of cash and short-term investments and $310 million of capacity on our revolving credit facility. Our net debt leverage ratio was at 1.4 times, well within the range we have set for the company of 1.3 times to 1.7 times.

    翻到第 14 張投影片。自 2023 年公司重組以來,我們一直致力於建立穩健的資產負債表。我們的行動為股東創造了巨大的價值,自那時以來我們的股價上漲了一倍以上。截至年底,我們的流動資金超過 6 億美元,其中包括 3.28 億美元的現金和短期投資以及 3.1 億美元的循環信貸額度。我們的淨負債槓桿率為1.4倍,完全在我們為公司設定的1.3倍至1.7倍的範圍內。

  • We paid down $338 million of gross debt in 2024 as part of our refinancing activities. We achieved credit ratings from S&P and Moody's that reflect the impact of the work we are doing and remain committed to. And we extended our debt maturities to 2030, while significantly reducing our cost of debt. The stock price appreciation reinforces that we are taking the right steps to build a solid foundation by reducing leverage and strengthening liquidity to support our operations. This is a foundational element of the company going forward that we worked hard to put in place.

    作為再融資活動的一部分,我們在 2024 年償還了 3.38 億美元的總債務。我們獲得了標準普爾和穆迪的信用評級,這反映了我們正在做並將繼續致力於的工作的影響。我們將債務期限延長至 2030 年,同時大幅降低債務成本。股價上漲進一步證明,我們正在採取正確的措施,透過降低槓桿率和加強流動性來建立堅實的基礎,以支持我們的營運。這是我們努力實現的公司未來發展的基礎要素。

  • Moving to slide 15. We are implementing a disciplined capital allocation framework. First and foremost, we are committed to maintaining our fortress balance sheet. We are focused on strong liquidity, low leverage, improved credit ratings and further reductions in long-term debt.

    移至投影片 15。我們正在實施嚴格的資本配置架構。首先,我們致力於維護我們的堡壘資產負債表。我們專注於強大的流動性、低槓桿率、提高信用評級和進一步減少長期債務。

  • Second, we are making strategic investments in the business to continue driving portfolio innovation and infrastructure upgrades, both of which better position the company for future growth. Our CapEx and strategic investments in the business will be focused on growing the North American retail business and building out our banking branch automation solutions. DN benefits from running a CapEx-light model, representing only approximately 1.5% of sales, which compares favorably to our peer set.

    其次,我們正在對業務進行策略性投資,以繼續推動產品組合創新和基礎設施升級,這兩項投資都將為公司未來的成長做好更好的準備。我們的資本支出和業務策略投資將集中在發展北美零售業務和建立我們的銀行分行自動化解決方案。DN 受惠於運行輕資本支出模式,其資本支出僅佔銷售額的約 1.5%,與我們的同業相比具有優勢。

  • Third, we continue to be guided by our commitment of returning capital to shareholders. We are doing so in the form of a share repurchase program. At current levels, we believe this is the best use of excess cash. We announced our first $100 million authorization that we will start executing against this year.

    第三,我們繼續秉承向股東返還資本的承諾。我們以股票回購計劃的形式來實現這一目標。在當前水準下,我們認為這是對多餘現金的最佳利用。我們宣布了第一筆 1 億美元的授權,並將於今年開始執行。

  • Lastly, we want our capital allocation framework to allow for small, disciplined and opportunistic M&A and strategic growth investments. We are always evaluating tuck-in opportunities for small investments that would accelerate our growth.

    最後,我們希望我們的資本配置框架能夠允許小規模、有紀律且機會主義的併購和策略性成長投資。我們始終在評估能夠加速我們成長的小額投資機會。

  • Now I will turn it back to Octavio.

    現在我將把它交還給 Octavio。

  • Octavio Marquez - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Octavio Marquez - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Thank you, Tom. To wrap things up on slide 16. We delivered a strong year, focusing on customers, employees and improving operations. I am excited about the future of DN. In banking, we see steady demand in our end markets for DN Series ATMs and are focused on optimizing the end-to-end cash ecosystem with our branch automation solution.

    謝謝你,湯姆。在第 16 張投影片上結束本次演講。我們度過了強勁的一年,專注於客戶、員工並改善營運。我對 DN 的未來感到興奮。在銀行業,我們看到終端市場對 DN 系列 ATM 的需求穩定,並專注於透過我們的分行自動化解決方案優化端到端現金生態系統。

  • In retail, we have invested in accelerating our North America growth opportunity and enhance our self-service offering with AI computer vision. Retailers are impressed with how our solutions address their pain points and drive higher efficiencies while better serving their customers. We are at the initial stages of our lean journey. And as you have seen, we have made tremendous improvements building efficiency in our operations.

    在零售業,我們已投資加速我們在北美的成長機會,並透過人工智慧電腦視覺增強我們的自助服務。我們的解決方案如何解決他們的痛點、提高效率並更好地服務客戶令零售商印象深刻。我們正處於精益之旅的初始階段。如您所見,我們在營運效率方面取得了巨大進步。

  • We are expanding our lean efforts throughout the enterprise going into 2025 with a particular focus on our service business. And finally, my thanks go to our 21,000 employees around the world as we work to build a top-performing company for our customers and shareholders.

    面向 2025 年,我們將在整個企業範圍內擴大精實工作,特別關注我們的服務業務。最後,我要感謝我們遍佈全球的 21,000 名員工,我們正努力為客戶和股東打造一家業績卓越的公司。

  • And with that, operator, please open the line for questions.

    接線員,請打開熱線來回答問題。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • (Operator instructions)

    (操作員指示)

  • Matt Summerville with D.A. Davidson.

    馬特·薩默維爾 (Matt Summerville) 與 D.A.戴維森。

  • Matt Summerville - Analyst

    Matt Summerville - Analyst

  • So maybe let's start in retail, two things. So you're talking about the second half recovery. First, help me understand if that's led by POS, if that's led by SCO, a particular region? Do you already have orders in hand to support that view? Help me understand the thinking on the second half recovery. And then I have a couple of follow-ups.

    那也許我們可以從零售業開始談兩件事。所以您談論的是下半年的復甦。首先,請幫助我了解這是否由 POS 領導,是否由 SCO 或特定地區領導?您是否已經收到訂單來支持該觀點?幫助我理解下半年復甦的想法。然後我還有一些後續問題。

  • Octavio Marquez - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Octavio Marquez - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Sure, Matt. This is Octavio. Thank you, and apologies for my voice. I I've been so happy with the results that I've been jumping up and down celebrating so my voice is a little bit scratchy. But in all seriousness, we ended the year strongly in retail with sequential improvements in revenue. and also significant orders for the back half of the year, particularly in Europe around both Skol and POS.

    當然,馬特。這是 Octavio。謝謝,並對我的聲音表示歉意。我對結果非常滿意,高興得又跳又跳地慶祝,聲音都有點沙啞了。但說實話,我們在零售業以強勁的業績結束了這一財年,營收連續成長。以及下半年的大量訂單,特別是在歐洲 Skol 和 POS 週邊地區。

  • We won some very large contracts in our -- with our European clients that will start to be delivered in the second half of next year and those include both SCO and POS. So that gives us good visibility on why we see that second half recovery. Secondly, we've made significant investments now in our North America sales team.

    我們與歐洲客戶贏得了一些非常大的合同,這些合約將於明年下半年開始交付,其中包括 SCO 和 POS。這讓我們清楚地了解了為什麼我們會看到下半年的復甦。其次,我們現在對北美銷售團隊進行了大量投資。

  • I am convinced now as well market transition from very tightly self-checkout solutions that include hardware, software and services as the US was first region in the world to deploy self-checkout solutions. These were very tightly coupled solutions. Customers are now looking at unbundling those solutions where they're looking for best-of-breed software, best concrete hard work, coupled with the services to support that.

    我相信,現在市場正在從包括硬體、軟體和服務在內的非常緊密的自助結帳解決方案轉型,因為美國是世界上第一個部署自助結帳解決方案的地區。這些都是緊密耦合的解決方案。客戶現在正在考慮拆分這些解決方案,他們正在尋找最佳的軟體、最好的具體努力以及支援這些解決方案的服務。

  • I am confident that with these investments and the feedback from customers or AI capabilities around shrink of retailers in North America. So I think we can win by one being better at delivering in North America that opens scalable hardware and scope that has gained us the number one position in Europe and gives us another avenue to software, where our software is now open micro services and very easily integrated to update infrastructures that most retailers are looking for.

    我相信,透過這些投資以及來自客戶的回饋或人工智慧能力,北美零售商的萎縮將會減少。因此,我認為我們可以透過在北美更好地交付來取勝,從而打開可擴展的硬體和範圍,這使我們在歐洲獲得了第一的位置,並為我們提供了另一條軟體途徑,我們的軟體現在是開放的微服務,並且很容易整合以更新大多數零售商正在尋找的基礎設施。

  • Matt Summerville - Analyst

    Matt Summerville - Analyst

  • And then just with respect to the scope side of the business, the market obviously had a reset in '24. And I'd be curious, off of a record '23, how much of a decline do you think we saw in '24? And do you think the secularly driven nature of what had been driving the business leading up to and through the pandemic until last year, is that still alive well and firmly intact? Or should we be thinking differently about the SCO market going forward? .

    然後,就業務範圍方面而言,市場顯然在 24 年進行了重置。我很好奇,根據 23 年的記錄,您認為 24 年的下降幅度有多大?您是否認為,在去年疫情爆發之前和疫情期間一直推動業務發展的長期驅動力,是否仍然保持良好和穩固的狀態?或者我們應該以不同的方式思考 SCO 市場的未來?。

  • Octavio Marquez - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Octavio Marquez - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • So Matt, I would say that the decline very significantly by region. Clearly, Europe, which is one of our biggest markets saw the biggest decline with countries like the UK, Ireland, experiencing more pronounced declines in other markets. At the same time, it is important to note that self-checkout is moving into other retail verticals, whereas we were very concentrated on grocery. We've now in wins in fashion, general merchandising.

    所以馬特,我想說,各地區的下降幅度非常顯著。顯然,作為我們最大市場之一的歐洲出現了最大的下滑,英國、愛爾蘭等國家在其他市場也經歷了更明顯的下滑。同時,值得注意的是,自助結帳正在進入其他零售垂直領域,而我們則非常專注於食品雜貨。我們現在已經取得了時尚和百貨商品銷售領域的勝利。

  • So clearly, the market is expanding for self-checkout, and that is very tied to those secular tailwinds that we think will return in the latter half of this year around more store efficiency, improving customer journeys and frankly, a shift in the consumer preference for these types of technologies.

    顯然,自助結帳市場正在擴大,這與我們認為將在今年下半年回歸的長期順風密切相關,包括提高商店效率、改善客戶旅程,坦白說,消費者對這類技術的偏好也將轉變。

  • On the other side, remember, we are the number one provider of checkout in Europe, but a distant number three in the US. The US is one of the largest retail markets overall. So I'm very encouraged that the new team that we have put in place with the changes in buying behavior from our North America retailers. And I'm sure that that will help us reaccelerate growth in retail in the second half of the year.

    另一方面,請記住,我們是歐洲第一大結帳服務供應商,但在美國,我們卻遠遠落後於第三大結帳服務供應商。美國是全球最大的零售市場之一。因此,我很高興看到我們組建的新團隊能夠適應北美零售商購買行為的變化。我相信這將有助於我們在下半年重新加速零售業的成長。

  • Matt Summerville - Analyst

    Matt Summerville - Analyst

  • Got it. And then maybe I'll do one more. On the banking side of the business, I think you talked about on an early slide, you have about 75% of the installed base that's still sort of up for grabs with respect to refreshes. So maybe talk about kind of the go-forward view on this recycling-led refresh cycle, maybe a baseball analogy may be helpful. adding a little bit of regional color as to overall demand. I know there were a couple of big tenders in Brazil up for grabs. Any update there would all be beneficial?

    知道了。然後我可能還會再做一次。在銀行業務方面,我想您在早期的幻燈片中談到過,大約有 75% 的安裝基礎在更新方面仍有待爭奪。因此,也許談論這種以回收為主導的更新周期的前瞻性觀點,也許棒球類比可能會有所幫助。在整體需求上添加了一點區域色彩。我知道巴西有幾項大型招標活動正在舉行。任何更新都會有益嗎?

  • Octavio Marquez - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Octavio Marquez - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Sure, Matt. And once again, if you consider that we have a global installed base of roughly 800,000 ATMs, we just completed the shipment of our 200,000 DN Series last quarter. So again, we're roughly 25% in. So if my math is correct, baseball analogy, we should be somewhere in the third inning, going into the or somewhere or around there. So we're still in the early stages of upgrading this large installed base into recycling. If I look at it by geography, which I think is an important part, I'll start with Brazil since you mentioned Brazil.

    當然,馬特。再說一次,如果您考慮到我們在全球安裝了大約 800,000 台 ATM,那麼我們上個季度剛剛完成了 200,000 台 DN 系列的發貨。所以,我們大約完成了 25%。因此,如果我的數學正確的話,以棒球為例,我們應該處於第三局的某個地方,進入或某個地方或附近。因此,我們仍處於將這個大型安裝基礎升級為回收的早期階段。如果從地理位置來看,我認為這是一個重要部分,既然你提到了巴西,我就從巴西開始。

  • As you know, we still have a very concentrated financial industry with a couple of large banks and also some very large government packs. We were fortunate enough to win these large banking tenders in Brazil. And those deliveries will start in the second half of 2025. That's a little bit of the reason why our year will be a little bit more back-end loaded this time around. These large tenders in Brazil are all for recycled. So banks are adjusting their infrastructure to incorporate more of this recycling functionality, which again has to do more with software than hardware, but it does take time.

    如你所知,我們的金融業仍然非常集中,擁有幾家大型銀行以及一些非常大的政府集團。我們很幸運能夠贏得巴西這些大型銀行招標。這些交付將於 2025 年下半年開始。這就是為什麼我們今年的後端工作會更加繁重的原因。巴西的這些大型招標都是針對回收的。因此,銀行正在調整其基礎設施以納入更多的回收功能,這又與軟體相關而不是硬件,但這確實需要時間。

  • Another growing market for us is Latin America. And as you know, Latin America continues to be a very cash heavy market. And banks use the ATMs as an entry point for their consumers into the digital ecosystem. So it's not strange to see in Latin America ATMs providing significant functionality around bill payments and even insurance in some cases. So we see very healthy demand coming from Latin America, and it continues to be an expanding market. out to Europe, which was a very pleasant surprise this year as it's been a very stable market, both for our products and our and also a very stable installed base.

    我們的另一個不斷成長的市場是拉丁美洲。如您所知,拉丁美洲仍然是一個現金密集的市場。銀行利用 ATM 作為消費者進入數位生態系統的入口。因此,在拉丁美洲看到 ATM 提供帳單支付甚至保險等重要功能也就不足為奇了。因此,我們看到來自拉丁美洲的需求非常健康,並且它是一個持續擴大的市場。我們今年對歐洲市場感到非常驚喜,因為歐洲市場非常穩定,對我們的產品和我們的客戶群都是如此,而且安裝基礎也非常穩定。

  • So again, even with consolidation of some of our larger customers joining networks, we still see a very steady installed base and still steady growth in Europe. I will turn to North America, where I am very excited about a different opportunity that we're looking at, which will also apply to Europe. When you think of recycling math, today, we've been very focused on implementing recycling at the. Last year, we introduced our teller cash recycler, which uses the same technology that we use in our DN Serious ATMs. This provides a comprehensive view of the total cash being managed at a branch level.

    因此,即使我們的一些較大的客戶加入網路並進行整合,我們仍然看到歐洲的安裝基礎非常穩定且成長仍然穩定。我將轉向北美,我對我們正在尋找的不同機會感到非常興奮,這也適用於歐洲。當您想到回收數學時,今天,我們一直非常專注於實施回收。去年,我們推出了櫃員機現金循環機,它採用的技術與我們的 DN Serious ATM 相同。這提供了分支機構層級管理的現金總額的全面視圖。

  • This is the very powerful way for banks to optimize their end-to-end cash ecosystem and cost of the branch. So we're excited that the US, we've seen share gains, but we still have a long way to refresh our installed base plus with our branch automation services that you will see us talking about really expanding our target addressable market. And lastly, when I think of Asia Pacific is one of the things that I'm very excited about is that -- and Tom mentioned starting in Q2, we will start shipping our fit-for-purpose devices for the Asia Pacific region.

    這是銀行優化端到端現金生態系統和分行成本的非常有效的方法。因此,我們很高興看到美國的市場份額有所增長,但我們還有很長的路要走才能刷新我們的安裝基礎,再加上我們的分支自動化服務,你會看到我們談論真正擴大我們的目標市場。最後,當我想到亞太地區時,我感到非常興奮的事情之一是——湯姆提到從第二季開始,我們將開始為亞太地區運送適合用途的設備。

  • This includes a smaller footprint machine for the Indian market where there's huge volumes with lower transaction volumes. So we built machine specific for that market. At the same time, we built the highest capacity cash recycle for markets like the Middle East in some parts of Africa. So we're very excited because that will continue to drive the adoption of recycling in that part of the world. So again, I think that we are talking in the early stages still of this recycling adoption, and we're looking at ways on how do we expand our target addressable market, particularly in the more mature markets where optimizing the end-to-end cash ecosystem becomes paramount to banks.

    這包括針對印度市場的佔地面積較小的機器,該市場的交易量巨大,但交易量較低。因此我們針對該市場製造了專門的機器。同時,我們在非洲部分地區建置了面向中東等市場容量最大的現金循環系統。因此我們非常興奮,因為這將繼續推動世界這一地區採用回收技術。因此,我認為我們仍然處於這種回收的早期階段,我們正在尋找如何擴大目標市場的方法,特別是在更成熟的市場中,優化端到端現金生態系統對銀行至關重要。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Matt Bryson, Wedbush.

    馬特布萊森,韋德布希。

  • Matt Bryson - Analyst

    Matt Bryson - Analyst

  • Congrats on the strong Q4 and the guide, particularly given the currency headwinds. Just curious, I know a number of other companies have talked to potential disruption from everything that's going on in the political sphere, are you seeing any of that impacting your business and executing through it? Or is it just something that's not really affecting you in part because you've got this diversified supply chain at this point.

    恭喜第四季業績強勁以及指南發布,尤其是在貨幣逆風的情況下。只是好奇,我知道許多其他公司已經談到政治領域發生的一切可能造成的混亂,您是否認為這些影響會影響您的業務和執行?或者這只是一件對您沒有真正影響的事情,因為您目前擁有多樣化的供應鏈。

  • Octavio Marquez - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Octavio Marquez - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Matt, this is Javier. Let me jump in and help Tom with this one. I think we've been -- and Tom is looking at me funny to answer. But I think that we started our supply chain transformation a couple of years ago, where we were very focused on really creating a local to local supply chain. So our North America installation here in Northeast Ohio supplies our products for the US and Canadian markets. Our European facilities supply products for Europe.

    馬特,這是哈維爾。讓我來幫湯姆解決這個問題。我想我們已經──湯姆用奇怪的眼神看著我回答。但我認為我們幾年前就開始了供應鏈轉型,當時我們非常注重真正創建本地到本地的供應鏈。因此,我們位於俄亥俄州東北部的北美工廠為美國和加拿大市場供應產品。我們的歐洲工廠為歐洲供應產品。

  • Our India facility will supply products for APAC and our Manaus facility in Brazil supplies products for South America. We've also made a very conscious effort of developing local suppliers around each of these facilities. So we believe that we can very effectively minimize some of the impact of tariffs. Again, we don't know exactly what they will be. They seem to change very frequently. And there's always some dependency from some Asian component manufacturers. But we think that overall, we can manage that fairly effectively in the supply chain going forward.

    我們的印度工廠將為亞太地區供應產品,我們位於巴西的馬瑙斯工廠將為南美洲供應產品。我們也非常有意識地努力在每個設施周圍開發本地供應商。因此我們相信我們可以非常有效地將關稅的影響降至最低。再說一次,我們不知道它們到底是什麼。它們似乎變化非常頻繁。而且總是存在著對一些亞洲零件製造商的依賴。但我們認為,總體而言,我們可以在未來的供應鏈中相當有效地管理這一點。

  • Thomas Timko - Executive Vice President, Chief Financial Officer & Principal Accounting Officer

    Thomas Timko - Executive Vice President, Chief Financial Officer & Principal Accounting Officer

  • Yeah. Look, the only thing that I would add to that, I think we're well positioned relative to the competition as we've really regionalized much of our production and capacity and supply chain. Less than 25% of our component base is sourced from China. That was a much different number a few years ago. So we feel no matter what the tariffs are, we don't expect really a material impact at this point.

    是的。我唯一想補充的是,我認為我們相對於競爭對手處於有利地位,因為我們已經真正實現了大部分生產、產能和供應鏈的區域化。我們的零件中不到25%來自中國。幾年前,這個數字有很大不同。因此,我們認為無論關稅是多少,目前都不會產生實質影響。

  • Matt Bryson - Analyst

    Matt Bryson - Analyst

  • Got it. And just -- but you've also -- you haven't -- have you seen any shift in how your customers are acting in terms of uncertainty around business conditions changing how they're thinking about things and you're just executing through that? Or it's just something you're not really seeing?

    知道了。而且——但是您也——您還沒有——您是否看到您的客戶在商業環境的不確定性方面的行為發生了任何轉變,改變了他們對事物的看法,而您只是在執行這一轉變?或者這只是你沒有真正看到的東西?

  • Thomas Timko - Executive Vice President, Chief Financial Officer & Principal Accounting Officer

    Thomas Timko - Executive Vice President, Chief Financial Officer & Principal Accounting Officer

  • I would say at this point, we're really not seeing anything. We've got strong backlog. We feel pretty confident as we look into '25 that we'll be able to deliver what we say we're going to do and have another year. So at this point, no real headwinds other than really some of the FX that we're seeing, right, which is pretty substantial for us on the revenue side, probably 3% to 4%, about $115 million unfavorable impact year-over-year. But really, other than that, we feel pretty confident at this stage.

    我想說,目前我們真的什麼都沒看到。我們有大量積壓訂單。展望 25 年,我們非常有信心,我們能夠兌現我們的承諾,再創輝煌。因此,目前除了我們看到的一些外匯因素外,沒有真正的阻力,這對我們的收入方面來說是相當大的,大概是 3% 到 4%,同比大約 1.15 億美元的不利影響。但實際上,除此之外,我們對現階段感到非常有信心。

  • Matt Bryson - Analyst

    Matt Bryson - Analyst

  • And just on the shift to recyclers, I mean, it sounds like there's a number of favorable dynamics from that transition. But can you give us some rough idea of, I guess, how far along in that transition? Do you think the industry is. And then any rough numbers you can give us around how favorable that shift is to either ASPs or gross margins for the banking products?

    就轉向回收商而言,聽起來這種轉變會帶來許多有利的動力。但是您能否給我們大致介紹一下,這種轉變進行到什麼程度了?您認為這個行業是嗎?那麼,您能否提供一些粗略的數字,告訴我們這種轉變對銀行產品的平均售價或毛利率有多大的影響?

  • Octavio Marquez - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Octavio Marquez - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Yeah. So Matt, I think it's been a steady progression towards recyclers. If we start in 2022, approximately 45% of our shipments were recyclers. Then that moved to close to 50% in 2023. And we estimate that will be somewhere around the 55% as we move forward. So there's still increased adoption of recyclers, and this is primarily driven by big markets like the U.S., big markets like Latin America and again, a steady base in Europe, which has used recyclers for a longer time, but are now entering that stage and they're once again thinking of upgrading their installed base.

    是的。所以馬特,我認為回收業一直在穩步發展。如果我們從 2022 年開始,大約 45% 的出貨量都是回收品。到 2023 年,這一比例將接近 50%。我們估計,隨著我們不斷前進,這一比例將會達到 55% 左右。因此,回收機的採用率仍在增加,這主要受到美國等大市場、拉丁美洲等大市場以及歐洲等穩定市場的推動,這些市場使用回收機已有較長時間,但現在正進入這一階段,他們再次考慮升級其安裝基礎。

  • Thomas Timko - Executive Vice President, Chief Financial Officer & Principal Accounting Officer

    Thomas Timko - Executive Vice President, Chief Financial Officer & Principal Accounting Officer

  • Yeah. The only other thing I would add to that, Matt, right, obviously, favorable impacts on the model, higher margin potential, annual contract revenue per cycler per recycler, excuse me, is higher compared to just a cash dispenser. And then average higher selling prices across the board, driving higher revenue even in the face of the FX headwinds that we see.

    是的。我唯一想補充的是,馬特,對,顯然,對模型產生有利影響,更高的利潤潛力,每台循環機每台回收機的年度合約收入,對不起,與自動櫃員機相比要高。然後全面提高平均售價,即使面臨外匯逆風,也能推動營收成長。

  • Matt Bryson - Analyst

    Matt Bryson - Analyst

  • Awesome. With regards to backlog, I know you -- I don't think you mentioned it on the call. I think you targeted having about $1 billion exiting the year. Just curious if that's where you ended up.

    驚人的。關於積壓問題,我知道你——我認為你在電話中沒有提到它。我認為您今年的目標是籌集約 10 億美元。我只是好奇你最後是否到了那裡。

  • Thomas Timko - Executive Vice President, Chief Financial Officer & Principal Accounting Officer

    Thomas Timko - Executive Vice President, Chief Financial Officer & Principal Accounting Officer

  • Yeah. So our -- again, we had strong banking backlog that burned down in 2024. Going forward, our objective is to have a book-to-bill greater than 1 times, which would hold backlog at approximately $800 million. In Q3 earnings, we expected somewhere to be around $900 million to $1 billion, and we did end the year with a little bit of impact from negative FX, closer to $800 million.

    是的。因此,我們再次強調,我們有大量銀行積壓訂單,這些訂單將在 2024 年耗盡。展望未來,我們的目標是將訂單出貨比超過 1 倍,這將使積壓訂單保持在約 8 億美元。我們預計第三季的收益將在 9 億至 10 億美元左右,但年底確實受到了外匯負面影響,收益接近 8 億美元。

  • Matt Bryson - Analyst

    Matt Bryson - Analyst

  • Okay. And I guess just the last thing is, I really appreciate the color around sales linearity in the coming year. But cash flow, obviously, it tends to be back-end loaded. At the same time, you're trying to make it a bit more linear. Any color you can give us there about how we should think about cash flow in terms of linearity in 2025?

    好的。我想最後一件事是,我真的很欣賞來年銷售線性的色彩。但顯然,現金流往往是後端加載的。同時,您嘗試讓它變得更線性一些。您能否告訴我們,我們該如何從線性角度思考 2025 年的現金流?

  • Thomas Timko - Executive Vice President, Chief Financial Officer & Principal Accounting Officer

    Thomas Timko - Executive Vice President, Chief Financial Officer & Principal Accounting Officer

  • Yeah, absolutely. First half cash flow, likely a use. We are targeting breakeven, but I would say likely a use but less than prior years. We think we have some real opportunities in the first half with working capital to continue to offset some of those use headwinds that we've seen historically. We would expect third quarter to be positive to offset some of that use and then fourth quarter positive. And we feel that we're on our way to nearly double what we did this year and certainly have a good strong second half.

    是的,絕對是如此。上半年現金流,可能有用。我們的目標是收支平衡,但我想說使用量可能會比前幾年少。我們認為,上半年我們有一些真正的機會,可以利用營運資金繼續抵消我們歷史上遇到的一些使用阻力。我們預計第三季將呈現正成長,以抵銷部分使用量,第四季也將呈現正成長。我們感覺我們預計將實現今年業績的兩倍成長,下半年也必將取得強勁成長。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Thank you at this time. We have no further questions. I'll now turn the call over to Chris Sikora for his closing remarks.

    這次謝謝你了。我們沒有其他問題了。現在我將把電話交給克里斯·西科拉 (Chris Sikora) 來做結束語。

  • Christopher Sikora - Vice President - Business Finance Operations

    Christopher Sikora - Vice President - Business Finance Operations

  • Thank you again for participating in today's call and your interest in Diebold Nixdorf. If you have any follow-up questions, please feel free to reach out to Investor Relations. Lastly, we hope many of you will join us for Diebold Nixdorf's 2025 Investor Day on February '26 in New York City. We look forward to sharing an in-depth look at our businesses, markets and outlook for the company. Thanks again, and have a good rest of the day.

    再次感謝您參加今天的電話會議以及對 Diebold Nixdorf 的關注。如果您有任何後續問題,請隨時聯絡投資者關係部。最後,我們希望大家能夠參加 2 月 26 日在紐約舉行的 Diebold Nixdorf 2025 年投資者日。我們期待深入了解我們的業務、市場和公司前景。再次感謝,祝您今天剩餘時間過得愉快。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Ladies and gentlemen, that concludes today's call. Thank you all for joining. You may now disconnect.

    女士們、先生們,今天的電話會議到此結束。感謝大家的加入。您現在可以斷開連線。