Dana Inc (DAN) 2025 Q3 法說會逐字稿

Good morning, and welcome to Dana Incorporated's third-quarter 2025 financial webcast and conference call. My name is Regina, and I will be your conference facilitator.

早安，歡迎參加 Dana Incorporated 2025 年第三季財務網路直播和電話會議。我叫雷吉娜，我將擔任本次會議的主持人。

Please be advised that our meeting today, both the speakers' remarks and Q&A session, will be recorded for replay purposes. (Operator Instructions) At this time, I'd like to begin the presentation by turning the call over to Dana's Senior Director of Investor Relations and Corporate Communications, Craig Barber. Please go ahead, Mr. Barber.

請注意，我們今天的會議，包括發言和問答環節，都將被錄音，以便回放。（操作員指示）現在，我想將電話轉交給 Dana 的投資者關係和企業傳播高級總監 Craig Barber，開始本次演示。請繼續，巴伯先生。

Thank you, Regina, and good morning and welcome to Dana Incorporated's earnings call for the third quarter of 2025.

謝謝 Regina，早安，歡迎參加 Dana Incorporated 2025 年第三季財報電話會議。

Today's presentation includes forward-looking statements about our expectations for Dana's future performance. Actual results could differ from what we present here today. For more details about the factors that may affect future results, please refer to our Safe Harbor statement found in our public filings and our reports [10-K]. I encourage you to visit our Investor website, where you'll find this morning's press release and presentation.

今天的報告包含有關我們對達納未來業績預期的一些前瞻性陳述。實際結果可能與我們今天在此展示的結果有所不同。有關可能影響未來業績的因素的更多詳情，請參閱我們在公開文件和報告中發布的「安全港聲明」。[10-K]。我建議您訪問我們的投資者網站，您可以在那裡找到今天早上的新聞稿和簡報。

As stated, today's call is being recorded and the supporting materials are the property of Dana Incorporated. They may not be recorded, copied, or rebroadcast without our written consent. With me this morning is Bruce McDonald, Dana's Chairman and Executive Officer; and Timothy Kraus, Senior Vice President and Chief Financial Officer. Bruce, call is yours.

如前所述，今天的通話正在錄音，相關資料均為 Dana Incorporated 所有。未經我們書面同意，不得錄製、複製或轉播。今天早上和我在一起的是達納公司董事長兼首席執行官布魯斯·麥克唐納，以及高級副總裁兼首席財務官蒂莫西·克勞斯。布魯斯，電話由你打。

Thank you, Craig, and good morning, everyone, and thanks for joining Craig, Tim, and I for a discussion here on Dana's Q3 earnings. Maybe just before I get into my slide here, just stepping back and talking about the puts and takes in terms of the third quarter. I guess, here's what I see as the highlights.

謝謝克雷格，大家早安，感謝各位與克雷格、提姆和我一起討論達納公司第三季的收益情況。或許在我開始講解之前，先退一步，談談第三季的買賣情況。我想，以下是我認為的亮點。

First of all, I think you'll see improving business performance, and that's something that we expect to see accelerate as we get into our fourth quarter. And the driver for that would really be a few restructuring initiatives that have been completed or substantially complete and will start to turn from headwinds that are in our numbers right now with tailwinds for us going forward.

首先，我認為你會看到業務表現有所改善，而且我們預計隨著進入第四季度，這種改善速度將會加快。而推動這一轉變的真正動力，是一些已經完成或基本完成的重組計劃，這些計劃將開始扭轉我們目前面臨的不利局面，並為我們未來的發展帶來順風。

Secondly, on the volume side, even though we're down year-over-year, the comps are getting better. They're negative, but they're getting better and that drives improved financial performance. On the tariff side, less of a headwind. You'll see we have minimal impact here in Q3. Our full-year charge in terms of tariffs is lower than we thought a quarter ago.

其次，從銷量方面來看，雖然年比有所下降，但年比數據正在好轉。雖然目前情況不佳，但正在好轉，這推動了財務表現的改善。關稅方面，阻力較小。你會發現，我們在第三季受到的影響微乎其微。從關稅角度來看，我們全年的費用低於我們一個季度前的預期。

And then cost savings, we're on track to deliver the $310 million we talked about last quarter, but we are realizing those quicker, and that's helping us with some of the uplift to our outlook here. In terms of negatives, I'd say we have some volume softness, particularly in CV North America and to a lesser extent in Brazil.

在成本節約方面，我們正按計畫實現上個季度提到的 3.1 億美元目標，而且實現速度更快，這有助於我們提振業績預期。就不利因素而言，我認為我們存在一些銷售疲軟的情況，尤其是在北美商用車市場，巴西市場的情況則稍好一些。

We did have JLR down for about five weeks in the quarter. So those were headwinds against us. And then the last thing I'd point out is we do have -- there has been some supplier or some EV program cancellations and we have some charges in the quarter that we took associated with that that we expect we'll recover here in the fourth quarter.

本季捷豹路虎停駛了大約五週。所以這些都是對我們不利的因素。最後我想指出的是，我們確實有一些供應商或電動車項目被取消，我們在本季度承擔了一些與此相關的費用，我們預計這些費用將在第四季度收回。

So just turning to the highlights in terms of the Off-Highway divestiture, that remains on track. We do expect to close here later in the fourth quarter. In terms of regulatory approvals, we've received almost all of them. We have one minor European country that we expect to wrap up here in the next week or so. I'd say the joint teams between ourselves and Allison are working hard to sort off all the plethora of work streams that we have in place to affect an orderly transition here in the quarter.

那麼，就非公路業務剝離而言，重點是，該業務仍在按計劃進行。我們預計將在第四季度晚些時候完成此交易。在監管審批方面，我們幾乎已經獲得了所有審批。我們還有一個歐洲小國需要處理，預計接下來的一週左右就能完成。我認為我們和 Allison 的聯合團隊正在努力理順我們現有的眾多工作流程，以實現本季的有序過渡。

In terms of our capital returns, you'll see in our note, we talked about buying between $100 million and $150 million of shares in the third quarter. We actually bought more than that, $9.5 million or 7% of our shares outstanding. We have had a 10b5 plan in place throughout the quarter. And as we sit here today, we've bought nearly 30 million shares or just over 20% of our shares outstanding and we expect to complete the balance of the share repurchase here over the next month or so.

關於我們的資本回報，您將在我們的報告中看到，我們討論了在第三季購買價值 1 億美元至 1.5 億美元的股票。實際上，我們購買的股份超過了這個金額，達到了 950 萬美元，占我們已發行股份的 7%。本季我們一直都在執行 10b5 計畫。截至目前，我們已經回購了近 3,000 萬股，佔已發行股份的 20% 以上，我們預計將在未來一個月左右完成剩餘的股份回購。

As I said in my earlier remarks on cost savings side, really good number here in the quarter. We're almost up to our full-year run rate of $73 million. We continue to look for other opportunities. I guess, really pleased with the progress our team has made on bringing these homes.

正如我之前在成本節約方面所說，本季的數據確實非常不錯。我們幾乎已經達到了全年7,300萬美元的營運目標。我們將繼續尋找其他機會。我想說，我對我們團隊在建造這些房屋方面取得的進展感到非常滿意。

Tariffs, the situation, I guess, is getting a little bit better. We continue to make progress getting USMCA compliance which reduces the headwind both from an on-charge point of view, but also the margin deterioration that we see. And our outlook, our recovery rate is now up in the upper 80%.

關稅方面，情況似乎正在好轉一些。我們在遵守美墨加協定方面持續取得進展，這不僅減少了收費方面的阻力，也減少了我們看到的利潤率惡化。我們的前景是，我們的復甦率現在已經上升到 80% 以上。

Then lastly, in terms of the balance of the year outlook, I'd say the light demand -- the light-truck demand remains relatively stable. We do have the odd production interruption here and there. But overall, Light Vehicle is looking good for the quarter.

最後，就今年剩餘時間的展望而言，我認為輕型卡車的需求將保持相對穩定。我們偶爾也會出現生產中斷的情況。但總體而言，輕型汽車產業本季前景良好。

In terms of Commercial Vehicle, we continue to see deterioration in North America and to a lesser extent, Brazil. Nonetheless, the fact that we've got a better outlook in terms of tariffs, quicker realization of cost recovery, we are taking our full-year guide up $15 million at the midpoint.

就商用車而言，我們看到北美市場持續惡化，巴西市場也有一定程度的惡化。儘管如此，鑑於關稅前景更加樂觀，成本回收速度更快，我們將全年業績指引中位數上調 1500 萬美元。

I would note that within our guidance, we do have some volume catch-up factored in here JLR. We factored in the lower Commercial Vehicle outlook here in North America in line with like estimates out there. And then we've factored in the latest Super Duty schedule releases that we have as of this week.

我想指出的是，在我們的指導方針中，我們已經考慮到了捷豹路虎的一些銷售追趕因素。我們已經將北美商用車市場前景下調的預期考慮在內，這與市場上其他類似預測一致。然後，我們也考慮了本週發布的最新 Super Duty 列車時刻表。

So with that, a good solid quarter. And Tim, I'll turn it over to you to go through the financials.

所以，總而言之，這是一個相當穩健的季度。提姆，接下來就交給你來審核財務數據了。

Thanks, Bruce, and good morning to everyone. Turning to slide 6 now. Let's review our third-quarter financial performance. First, a reminder, results are presented excluding the Off-Highway business, which is classified as discontinued operations.

謝謝你，布魯斯，大家早安。現在翻到第6張投影片。讓我們回顧一下第三季的財務表現。首先提醒大家，業績報告不包括非公路車輛業務，該業務已被歸類為終止經營業務。

Sales for the quarter were $1.917 billion, up $20 million compared to Q3 of last year. This reflects recoveries in currency benefits offsetting the impact of lower demand. Adjusted EBITDA came in at $162 million, an improvement of $51 million year-over-year. Our margin expanded by 260 basis points to 8.5%, driven by cost-saving actions and operational efficiencies that help mitigate the profit impact of lower sales and tariffs.

本季銷售額為 19.17 億美元，比去年第三季成長 2,000 萬美元。這反映出貨幣收益的恢復抵銷了需求下降的影響。調整後的 EBITDA 為 1.62 億美元，比上年同期成長 5,100 萬美元。我們的利潤率提高了 260 個基點，達到 8.5%，這得益於節約成本的措施和營運效率的提高，這些措施有助於減輕銷售額下降和關稅對利潤的影響。

EBIT improved significantly to $53 million from a loss of $8 million in the prior period. Net interest expense increased $11 million to $44 million due to higher borrowings and modestly higher rates.

息稅前利潤大幅改善，從上一期虧損 800 萬美元增加至 5,300 萬美元。由於借款增加和利率略有上升，淨利息支出增加了 1,100 萬美元，達到 4,400 萬美元。

Income tax was a benefit of $2 million. While this is down $16 million from last year, we continue to benefit from positive adjustments to the carrying value of our deferred tax assets.

所得稅收益為200萬美元。雖然比去年減少了 1600 萬美元，但我們繼續受益於遞延所得稅資產帳面價值的積極調整。

Net income attributable to Dana was $13 million compared with a loss of $21 million in Q3 of last year, a positive swing of $34 million. Overall, these results demonstrated an effect -- the effectiveness of our cost savings initiatives, operational improvements in offsetting market headwinds.

歸屬於 Dana 的淨利潤為 1,300 萬美元，而去年第三季虧損 2,100 萬美元，實現了 3,400 萬美元的正成長。整體而言，這些結果證明了我們的成本節約措施和營運改善在抵銷市場不利因素方面的有效性。

Please turn with me now to slide 7 for the drivers of the sales and profit change for the quarter. In line with the new reporting method, we have revised our walk presentation to include the impact of discontinued operations in the current -- for the current and prior periods. The $579 million in sales and $121 million of profit removed from 2024, represents the Off-Highway business being sold and the accounting treatment for discontinued operations.

請翻到第 7 頁，了解本季銷售額和利潤變化的驅動因素。根據新的報告方法，我們修改了我們的業績報告，將已終止經營業務對目前期間和先前期間的影響納入其中。從 2024 年扣除的 5.79 億美元銷售額和 1.21 億美元利潤，代表了非公路業務的出售以及終止營運的會計處理。

Beginning with sales, this year's third-quarter volume and mix were $66 million lower, driven by lower demand in Commercial Vehicle end markets, partially offset by higher sales in Light Vehicle. Production disruptions at certain customers had minimal impact on Light Vehicle System sales in the quarter.

先來看銷售額，今年第三季銷量和產品組合下降了 6,600 萬美元，主要原因是商用車終端市場需求下降，但輕型車銷售額的成長部分抵消了這一影響。本季部分客戶的生產中斷對輕型車輛系統銷售的影響微乎其微。

Performance drove sales higher by $8 million due to pricing actions, while tariff recoveries totaled $49 million. Currency translation, primarily the strength of the euro against the US dollar, yielded $21 million in higher sales compared to last year.

價格策略推動銷售額成長 800 萬美元，同時關稅回收總額達 4,900 萬美元。匯率波動，尤其是歐元對美元走強，使得銷售額比去年增加了 2,100 萬美元。

Moving to adjusted EBITDA. Volume and mix lowered EBITDA by $35 million. This was a decremental margin of about 50%, higher than we typically expect, reflecting significant mix changes and continued operational impacts within our thermal products business, including battery cooling. But recall, we are breaking out performance, which includes efficiency gains in manufacturing separately.

改為調整後 EBITDA。銷售量和產品組合的變化導致 EBITDA 減少了 3500 萬美元。這相當於下降了約 50%，高於我們通常的預期，反映了我們熱能產品業務（包括電池冷卻）的重大產品組合變化和持續的營運影響。但請記住，我們將性能單獨列出，其中包括製造效率的提高。

Performance increased profit by $11 million due to pricing and efficiency improvements across both segments. Cost savings added $73 million in profit through the actions we have taken across the company. This brings us to $183 million to date, and we are securing our increased target of $235 million in savings for the full-year 2025.

由於兩個業務板塊的價格和效率提升，公司業績成長了 1,100 萬美元，利潤也隨之增加。公司採取的各項措施節省了成本，從而增加了 7,300 萬美元的利潤。這使我們迄今為止的節省金額達到了 1.83 億美元，我們正在確保實現 2025 年全年節省 2.35 億美元的目標。

Tariff impact in the quarter was minimal at just $1 million. Due to the catch-up in tariff recoveries, we expect to see continuing profit headwind in the future, but we do expect recovery of majority of this impact this year.

本季關稅影響微乎其微，僅 100 萬美元。由於關稅追回工作仍在進行，我們預計未來利潤將繼續面臨不利影響，但我們預計今年大部分影響將會得到緩解。

Next, I will turn to slide 8 for details on our third-quarter cash flow. As I discussed on slide 6, the accounting for cash flow includes both continued and discontinued operations as shown here on slide 9. For the third quarter of 2025, we delivered adjusted free cash flow of $101 million, which represents a $109 million improvement compared to the prior year. This strong performance was driven primarily by higher profitability and lower working capital requirements.

接下來，我將翻到第 8 張投影片，詳細介紹我們第三季的現金流狀況。正如我在第 6 張投影片中所討論的那樣，現金流量的會計處理包括持續經營和終止經營，如第 9 張投影片所示。2025 年第三季度，我們實現了調整後的自由現金流 1.01 億美元，比去年同期成長了 1.09 億美元。這一強勁業績主要得益於更高的獲利能力和更低的營運資金需求。

Onetime costs, primarily related to our cost savings program, were $17 million, which is $8 million higher than the prior period. Net interest increased by $11 million, primarily due to higher borrowing costs associated with the capital return initiatives.

一次性成本（主要與我們的成本節約計劃有關）為 1700 萬美元，比上一期高出 800 萬美元。淨利息增加了 1,100 萬美元，主要是由於與資本回報計劃相關的借貸成本增加所致。

Taxes were lower at $47 million compared to $72 million last year, driven by the timing of payments. Working capital improved significantly by $76 million, reflecting better management -- inventory management and timing of receivables and payables.

由於付款時間安排，稅收從去年的 7,200 萬美元降至 4,700 萬美元。營運資金顯著改善了 7,600 萬美元，反映出管理水準的提高——庫存管理以及應收帳款和應付帳款的時間表。

Capital spending was $59 million, up $16 million year-over-year as we continue to invest in new programs to support our backlog. Overall, these factors combined to deliver a substantial improvement in free cash flow, positioning us well to achieve our full-year target.

資本支出為 5,900 萬美元，比上年增加 1,600 萬美元，我們將繼續投資新項目以支持我們的積壓工作。整體而言，這些因素共同促成了自由現金流的大幅改善，使我們有信心實現全年目標。

Please turn with me now to slide 9 for an updated guidance continuing operations. For all our targets, we have narrowed our ranges as we approach the end of the year as we remain confident in achieving our targets.

請翻到第 9 頁，查看有關繼續運作的最新指引。隨著年底臨近，我們縮小了所有目標的設定範圍，但我們仍然有信心實現這些目標。

We expect sales from continuing operations to be approximately $7.4 billion at the midpoint of the tightened range. Adjusted EBITDA from continuing operations is now expected to be about $590 million at the midpoint of the narrower range. This is approximately $15 million higher than previously anticipated, driven primarily by accelerated cost savings and performance improvements.

我們預計持續經營業務的銷售額在收緊後的區間中點約為 74 億美元。預計持續經營業務的調整後 EBITDA 為 5.9 億美元左右，處於較窄預測範圍的中點。這比之前預期的高出約 1500 萬美元，主要原因是成本節約加速和性能提升。

Full-year adjusted free cash flow is anticipated at $275 million at the midpoint of the tighter range for the year. The profit improvement in continuing operations is expected to be offset by lower profit from discontinued operations.

預計全年調整後自由現金流為 2.75 億美元，處於全年預測區間的中點。預計持續經營業務利潤的改善將被終止經營業務利潤的下降所抵消。

Please turn with me now to slide 10 for the drivers in sales and profit change for our full-year guidance. As with the quarterly walk we showed earlier, our full-year guidance walk adjusts 2024 for estimated discontinued operations and walks forward our guidance for continuing operations.

請翻到第 10 頁，了解我們全年銷售和利潤變化的驅動因素。與我們先前展示的季度預測一樣，我們的全年預測預測調整了 2024 年預計終止經營業務的業績，並推進了我們對持續經營業務的預測。

Beginning on the left, discontinued operations reduced 2024 sales by $2.5 billion, so we begin 2025 at $7.7 billion in sales for continuing operations. Adjusted EBITDA from discontinued operations was $490 million, reducing adjusted EBITDA to $395 million, resulting in a 5.1% margin.

從左側開始，已終止的業務使 2024 年的銷售額減少了 25 億美元，因此，2025 年初持續經營業務的銷售額為 77 億美元。已終止經營業務的調整後 EBITDA 為 4.9 億美元，使調整後 EBITDA 減少至 3.95 億美元，利潤率為 5.1%。

In this presentation, we have combined the impact of sales from continuing ops in our Off-Highway business into the volume and mix category. We are expecting volume and mix to lower sales by approximately $600 million, driven by lower demand in traditional Commercial Vehicle markets as well as for electric Light Vehicles impacting our battery cooling business.

在本次演示中，我們將非公路業務持續營運的銷售影響合併到銷售和組合類別。我們預計銷量和產品組合的變化將導致銷售額下降約 6 億美元，主要原因是傳統商用車市場需求下降以及電動輕型車輛需求下降，這將影響我們的電池冷卻業務。

Adjusted EBITDA from volume and mix is expected to be lower by $130 million. Performance is now expected to increase EBITDA by approximately $110 million, mostly through pricing improvements. Cost savings will add $235 million in profit, as I mentioned previously.

預計銷售量和產品組合調整後的 EBITDA 將減少 1.3 億美元。預計業績將使 EBITDA 增加約 1.1 億美元，主要得益於價格的改善。正如我之前提到的，節省成本將增加 2.35 億美元的利潤。

The tariff impact for the full year is expected to add about $150 million to sales, and we now expect it to lower profit by about $20 million. The majority of this profit headwind will be recovered next year. Foreign currency translation is now expected to increase sales by $25 million, primarily driven by the strengthening euro compared to the US dollar, offsetting some of these sales impacts of lower volume.

預計全年關稅將使銷售額增加約 1.5 億美元，但我們現在預計這將使利潤減少約 2,000 萬美元。大部分利潤下滑的影響將在明年得到彌補。外匯折算預計將使銷售額增加 2,500 萬美元，主要原因是歐元對美元走強，抵消了銷售下降帶來的一些銷售影響。

Finally, commodity cost recovery should drive about $15 million in higher sales and now only about a $5 million headwind to profit. The net result will be about 290-basis-point margin improvement in continuing operations compared to last year as performance and cost saving actions overcome market headwinds.

最後，商品成本回收應該會帶來約 1,500 萬美元的銷售額成長，而對利潤的負面影響只會達到約 500 萬美元。由於業績提升和成本節約措施克服了市場不利因素，持續經營業務的最終利潤率將比去年提高約 290 個基點。

Next, I will turn to slide 11 for the details of our free cash flow guidance. As I mentioned, we anticipate full-year 2025 adjusted free cash flow to be about $275 million at the midpoint of the guidance range. We expect about $105 million of higher free cash flow from increased adjusted EBITDA.

接下來，我將翻到第 11 張投影片，詳細介紹我們的自由現金流指引。正如我之前提到的，我們預計 2025 年全年調整後自由現金流約為 2.75 億美元（按指導範圍的中點計算）。我們預計調整後 EBITDA 增加將帶來約 1.05 億美元的自由現金流成長。

Onetime costs will be about $30 million higher as we invest in our cost saving programs and restructuring. Working capital will be about $105 million lower as we continue to reduce the requirements to operate the business. And capital spending net is expected to be about $325 million this year, which is $45 million lower than last year.

由於我們將投資於成本節約計劃和重組，一次性成本將增加約 3,000 萬美元。隨著我們繼續減少業務營運需求，營運資金將減少約 1.05 億美元。今年淨資本支出預計約 3.25 億美元，比去年減少了 4,500 萬美元。

And finally, I will turn back over to Bruce for some closing comments on slide 12.

最後，我將把麥克風交還給布魯斯，讓他對第 12 張投影片做一些總結性評論。

Okay. Thanks, Tim. So this slide is really the same as we talked about last quarter, which reflects the fact that I think the business is performing well and we're delivering on our commitment. So cost savings for the year or so the run rate that we're targeting, the $310 million, we're solidly on track. And as we've discussed here earlier, we're realizing more of that benefit here in 2026 -- sorry, 2025.

好的。謝謝你，提姆。所以這張投影片的內容和我們在上個季度討論的內容其實是一樣的，這反映出我認為公司業務表現良好，我們正在履行我們的承諾。因此，我們預計一年左右的成本節約目標為 3.1 億美元，目前我們正穩步朝著這個目標邁進。正如我們之前在這裡討論過的，我們將在 2026 年——抱歉，是 2025 年——實現更多這樣的好處。

In terms of our margin outlook, we've been consistent for a year now that we were going to have 10% to 10.5% margins for 2026. And it's really nice to be giving guidance here for the fourth quarter that's in top or in that range or even slightly on top of. I'd say, overall, our team is doing a great job over delivering on the things that we can control, and it's helping us offset the things that we cannot control.

就我們的利潤率展望而言，我們一年來一直堅持認為，2026 年的利潤率將達到 10% 至 10.5%。很高興能對第四季度業績做出預測，預計業績將處於領先水平或接近該水平，甚至略高於預期。總的來說，我認為我們的團隊在可控範圍內做得非常出色，這有助於我們彌補無法控制的因素。

In terms of our return of capital to shareholders, we're committed to the $600 million this year. And then lastly, I would say, in terms of our growth story, I think it's underappreciated by the market. We have had some deterioration or backlog due to easy program cancellations, deferrals, or lower volumes.

就我們向股東返還資本而言，我們承諾今年將返還 6 億美元。最後，就我們的成長故事而言，我認為它被市場低估了。由於專案容易被取消、延長或數量減少，我們出現了一些品質下降或積壓的情況。

But nonetheless, our team has done a nice job this year gaining share, winning incremental programs, and so we plan on having an analyst call here in January and going through our revised backlog. We continue to win new business. And I hope to add to our backlog between now and January.

但儘管如此，我們的團隊今年在提升市場份額、贏得更多項目方面做得不錯，因此我們計劃在 1 月份召開分析師電話會議，討論我們修訂後的積壓訂單。我們持續贏得新業務。我希望從現在到一月能增加我們的訂單量。

With that, we'll turn it over for Q&A.

接下來，我們將進入問答環節。

(Operator Instructions) Gautam Narayan, RBC Capital Markets.

（操作員說明）Gautam Narayan，RBC Capital Markets。

My first one, it's an OEM question, but it relates to you guys to -- the big story from this earnings season was the big policy change, the MSRP exemption or extension that included broadening the scope of parts. And you saw that two large OE -- US OEMs, huge impacts on their tariff guidance and presumably their volume outlook.

我的第一個問題是關於OEM廠商的，但與你們也有關係——本財報季最大的新聞是政策的重大變化，即MSRP豁免或延期，其中包括擴大零部件的範圍。你也看到了，兩家大型 OE——美國 OEM 廠商——對其關稅指引和銷售預期產生了巨大影響。

Conversely, earlier this morning, a large European OEM reported results. It had no positive impact from that. So I was just wondering if you were seeing some dynamic here where the US OEMs, which you guys have more exposure to, maybe benefiting more from tariff policy changes than perhaps others, European or maybe even the Japanese and the Korean -- and I have a quick follow-up.

相反，今天早些時候，一家大型歐洲汽車製造商公佈了業績。這件事並沒有產生任何正面影響。所以我想知道，你們是否注意到，美國原始設備製造商（你們接觸得更多）可能比其他歐洲製造商，甚至日本和韓國製造商，從關稅政策變化中獲益更多——我還有一個後續問題。

Yeah. No, I think you're absolutely right. I mean the rebate is based on vehicles assembled in the US and obviously, the big -- the Detroit three make more in the US than the European or the other transplants. So I think to me, the most important thing in the recent announcement in that regard is, I think there's always been some concern around are customers going to have to pass along the higher prices that in the short-term, they are eating in their margins to the end customer.

是的。不，我覺得你說得完全正確。我的意思是，這項補貼是基於在美國組裝的車輛，而且很明顯，底特律三大汽車製造商在美國的產量比歐洲或其他外來製造商更高。所以我覺得，就這方面而言，最近公告中最重要的一點是，一直以來人們都擔心，客戶是否不得不將短期內利潤被蠶食而導致的更高價格轉嫁給最終客戶。

And to the extent that were to happen, then obviously, vehicle demand is going to drop. And so I think that risk has substantially diminished with the new guidelines that have come out. That's the way I look at it.

如果這種情況真的發生，那麼很顯然，汽車需求將會下降。因此，我認為隨著新指南的出台，這種風險已經大大降低了。我是這麼看的。

Okay. And then my quick follow-up, the Commercial Vehicle side, it sounds like from your prepared commentary that that situation is deteriorating. Just curious if you could give us the context of like how typically that cycle works? And are you seeing any light at the end of the tunnel?

好的。然後，我還有一個後續問題，關於商用車方面，從您事先準備好的評論來看，情況似乎正在惡化。我只是好奇您能否為我們介紹這個週期通常是如何運作的？你是否看到了隧道盡頭的曙光？

Nope. We're not seeing any light at the end of the tunnel. I would say -- I mean, if you look at the run rate here -- I'll talk about North America specifically, in the third quarter, we're running around a 200,000-unit annualized run rate.

沒有。我們看不到隧道盡頭的任何曙光。我想說——我的意思是，如果你看看這裡的運行率——我具體談談北美，在第三季度，我們的年化運行率約為 20 萬輛。

I know from talking to our customers that the backlogs that they all have really been run down. I think there's a lot of uncertainty in the marketplace. There's -- we would have expected maybe to start to see some signs of pre-buy in 2026 associated with some emissions legislation changes, and we're not seeing any of that.

我從與客戶的交談中了解到，他們積壓的問題實際上已經解決了。我認為市場存在許多不確定因素。我們原本預計，隨著一些排放法規的變化，可能會在 2026 年開始出現一些預購跡象，但我們並沒有看到任何此類跡象。

So I think it's going to be a fairly soft market here certainly for as long as we can see into mid-2026. And at this point in time, I don't see any green shoots that would suggest it's going to turn around. I also don't think we're going to have a heck of a lot of deterioration from here either. I mean, we're at pretty historically depressed levels.

所以我認為，至少在2026年中期之前，這裡的市場將會相當疲軟。就目前而言，我沒有看到任何跡象表明情況會好轉。我覺得情況也不會再有太大的惡化了。我的意思是，我們正處於歷史上相當低迷的水平。

Emmanuel Rosner, Wolfe Research.

Emmanuel Rosner，Wolfe Research。

My first question is on the implied outlook for the fourth quarter, which as you pointed is pretty strong and with margins already basically above -- slightly above the high end of your margin outlook for next year. Just curious if you can help us out in terms of sequential drivers.

我的第一個問題是關於第四季度的隱含前景，正如您所指出的，前景相當強勁，利潤率基本上已經高於——略高於您對明年利潤率預期的上限。我們只是想請教一下，您是否能幫我們解決一下順序驅動程式方面的問題。

So it's like it will be a 200-basis-point margin improvement versus Q3 on what is essentially lower revenue at the midpoint. You flagged a few exogenous events such as some of the forward schedules and the impact potentially from the fire. So just curious how to think about the performance quarter-over-quarter into the fourth?

因此，與第三季度相比，利潤率將提高 200 個基點，而收入中位數實際上有所下降。您指出了一些外部事件，例如一些未來的計劃安排以及火災可能造成的影響。所以，我很好奇該如何看待第四季季比業績？

Yeah. Emmanuel, this is Tim. So a couple of things. Obviously, we've got a continued improvement coming through from our cost savings initiative. We do see mix improving in the quarter.

是的。伊曼紐爾，我是提姆。有兩件事。顯然，我們的成本節約計畫正在持續取得成效。我們看到本季產品組合有所改善。

And then I think the other big driver and Bruce mentioned this in a couple -- in his opening comments, we are at the tail end of some restructuring actions that we believe -- well, which have some headwinds certainly through the third quarter that we think will also drive additional performance and better profitability into the fourth quarter. And that provides us a great springboard into 2026 as we get some of these actions behind us.

然後我認為另一個重要的驅動因素，布魯斯在開場白中也提到過，我們正處於一些重組行動的尾聲，我們相信——這些行動在第三季度肯定會遇到一些阻力，但我們認為這些阻力也會推動第四季度業績的進一步提升和盈利能力的提高。這將為我們邁向 2026 年奠定良好的基礎，因為我們可以把其中一些行動完成。

And we did announce the closure of a battery cooling plant earlier in the quarter. So this is part of what we're seeing, and we're continuing to work to improve the cost base of the business across the board. So you'll see those come through in the fourth quarter as well as next year.

我們在本季早些時候宣布關閉一家電池冷卻廠。所以這是我們目前看到的情況之一，我們將繼續努力，從各個方面改善業務的成本結構。所以你會在第四季以及明年看到這些成果。

That's helpful. And then just honing in on the top line and the mix dynamics. So could you give us a little bit more color around what mix you're referring to in terms of improving in the fourth quarter?

那很有幫助。然後集中精力處理主旋律和混音動態。那麼，您能否更詳細地說明一下，您所說的在第四季度有所改進的組合具體指的是什麼？

And also maybe like any color around what's assumed for some of these potential indirect impact on your customers from the Novelis fire because IHS has one view around fourth schedule and then Ford obviously give their own guidance, which had a fairly massive amount of volume production of a loss. So just curious what's embedded in your -- the schedules that you have received?

此外，或許還可以考慮 Novelis 火災可能對您的客戶造成的一些潛在間接影響，因為 IHS 對第四階段的計劃有一個看法，而福特顯然給出了他們自己的指導意見，其中損失的產量相當大。所以，我很好奇你收到的行程表都包含了哪些內容？

Yeah. So obviously, I don't want to get ahead of our customer, but we're fairly in line with what our customer has said publicly around those. How they ultimately run, we'll see. But certainly, from our perspective, we're fairly in line with where we see Ford's public statement.

是的。顯然，我不想搶在客戶前面，但我們在這方面與客戶公開表達的觀點基本一致。最終結果如何，我們拭目以待。但從我們的角度來看，我們與福特的公開聲明基本上一致。

In terms of mix, some of this is really the mix of products as we're moving from plant to plant. So that's -- we do have a bit better mix on some of the products where we have better contribution margin quarter-to-quarter. But a lot of it is really getting some of the restructuring and the movement of some of the product around in the plant as we rationalize our production footprint.

就產品組合而言，這一部分實際上是我們從一個工廠轉移到另一個工廠時產品組合的變化。所以，在某些產品上，我們的產品組合確實有所改善，這些產品的季度環比貢獻毛利率也更高。但實際上，許多工作都與工廠內部的重組和產品調配有關，以便我們合理化生產佈局。

Yeah. Maybe just one other comment on that one, going the other way is if you look at our third quarter, we were -- we are pretty constrained in terms of magnets. We have facilities in China, India, and Europe, where we had difficulties getting magnets. And that log jam [knock wood] seems to broken free here. So we do -- we do expect to have some substantial catch-up in terms of frustrated orders, which are, for us, very high margin.

是的。關於這一點，或許還有一點需要補充說明，另一方面，如果你看看我們的第三季度，你會發現我們在磁鐵方面受到了相當大的限制。我們在中國、印度和歐洲設有工廠，但在這些地方我們很難取得磁鐵。而那道堵塞的木頭（但願如此）似乎已經在這裡疏通了。所以，我們確實預計在被取消的訂單方面會有一些實質性的追趕，而這些訂單對我們來說利潤非常高。

Correct.

正確的。

Edison Yu, Deutsche Bank.

餘生愛迪生，德意志銀行。

This is Winnie Dong on for Edison. My first question is on the $110 million performance. I think in your prepared remarks, you mentioned that it's mostly driven by pricing improvement. I'm just curious, is there like bigger programs that are all going on at better pricing? And then what are some of the other drivers that might be embedded in this number?

這裡是溫妮‧董，為您帶來愛迪生的報道。我的第一個問題是關於1.1億美元的演出。我認為您在事先準備好的演講稿中提到，這主要是由價格改善所驅動的。我只是好奇，有沒有一些規模更大、價格更優惠的項目？那麼，還有哪些因素可能影響這個數字呢？

Yeah. So some of it is as we move through and bring new platforms and new programs on place that comes with revised pricing. So that's running through there. And then the teams -- the commercial teams have done a really nice job with the customers to go get recoveries both from an economic and for improvement.

是的。所以，部分原因是隨著我們不斷推進，推出新的平台和新項目，隨之而來的是價格的調整。所以這條線索就在那裡運行。然後，商業團隊在與客戶合作方面做得非常出色，既實現了經濟上的復甦，也實現了業務的改進。

So a lot of that is real pure pricing that we see. And you see that falling through. I don't have the number in front of me, but I think there's about $80 million of top line that's flowing through, and that's what you're seeing in that $110 million. The balance of that is really productivity and performance improvement at the plant level, net of all of the inflationary impacts that flow through the business.

所以我們看到的很多都是真正的純粹定價。然後你眼睜睜地看著這一切失敗。我手頭上沒有具體數字，但我認為大約有 8000 萬美元的收入在流動，這就是你在 1.1 億美元中看到的。剩下的就是工廠層級的生產力和績效提升，扣除所有影響企業的通貨膨脹因素後的結果。

Got it. That's very helpful. And then maybe on both Light Vehicle and Commercial, you can maybe just provide some higher-level preliminary puts and takes that you're seeing or considering into 2026?

知道了。那很有幫助。然後，也許在輕型車輛和商用車方面，您可以提供一些您目前或正在考慮的、針對 2026 年的更高層次的初步預測和看法？

Yeah. So I think Bruce mentioned we don't -- we're probably not seeing a lot, at least through the first half on the Commercial Vehicle side, especially in North America, that there'd be a whole lot of improvement. As we look through on the Light Vehicle side, we have a number of programs that are launching next year that should be -- should help volume.

是的。所以我覺得布魯斯提到過，我們可能看不到——至少在商用車領域，尤其是在北美，上半年不會出現太多改善。從輕型車輛方面來看，我們明年將推出一些項目，這些項目應該有助於提高銷售量。

But our core Light Vehicle program, especially on the driveline side, right, Super Duty, Bronco, Wrangler, Ranger, those are all still very strong runners, and we would continue to see those well into next year to continue to drive the volume side of this. And Wrangler is going to come out and have some refreshments so that should help as well.

但是我們的核心輕型車輛項目，尤其是在動力傳動系統方面，例如 Super Duty、Bronco、Wrangler 和 Ranger，這些車型仍然表現非常強勁，我們預計明年這些車型將繼續保持強勁勢頭，並繼續推動銷售成長。Wrangler公司的人也會出來提供一些茶點，這應該也會有所幫助。

Yeah. And maybe just a couple of other color commentary on that. I mean, obviously, with oil prices being quite soft, that's a nice tailwind in terms of large SUV. Some of the short-term deterioration that we're seeing in Super Duty, Ford has already talked about uplifting their volume next year in the middle, I think it's August of next year, they're introducing incremental Super Duty production at their Oakville facility. So I would say the tailwinds in terms of ICE, large SUV, our product exposure bodes well for us as we drift into 2026 year.

是的。或許還可以補充幾點其他的評論。我的意思是，很顯然，由於油價相當疲軟，這對大型SUV來說是一個很好的利多因素。我們看到 Super Duty 出現了一些短期下滑，福特已經表示將在明年年中（我認為是明年 8 月）提高產量，他們將在奧克維爾工廠逐步增加 Super Duty 的產量。因此，我認為，就內燃機、大型SUV而言，我們的產品曝光度帶來的順風對我們來說是好兆頭，預示著我們將在2026年取得不錯的成績。

Got it. I'm just a little surprised to the question. I know I didn't mind before that you're just not seeing a lot of impact in Q4 itself from one of your larger customers. Is it just because like the original guidance was conservative and, therefore, even if you're taking in some of the impact, you're still retaining a lot of it? Or are they not really flowing through that impact to you guys?

知道了。我對這個問題感到有點驚訝。我知道我之前並不介意，只是你們的大客戶之一在第四季度並沒有帶來太大的影響。是因為最初的指導方針比較保守，所以即使你考慮到了一部分影響，你仍然會受到很大一部分影響？或者說，這些影響並沒有真正傳遞給你們？

Yeah, it's a bit of both, right? Winnie, it's a bit of both. So we had some of this in our forecast that we had back in August. So -- and then some of it's the view from the customers are going to make up some of this as we move through the back part of the quarter.

是的，兩者兼而有之，對吧？溫妮，兩者兼具。所以，我們在八月的預測中已經包含了這部分內容。所以——隨著我們進入本季後半段，客戶的意見也將在一定程度上彌補這一缺口。

And I mean keep in mind, we're -- our exposure is Super Duty, not F-150. So when they -- when you're hearing the volumes, you're hearing both. And I think just given the profitability of the Super Duty, they're over-rotating to try and keep that running as strong as they can.

我的意思是，請記住，我們——我們關注的是Super Duty，而不是F-150。所以當你聽到音量時，你同時聽到了兩種聲音。我認為，鑑於 Super Duty 的盈利能力，他們正在過度輪換生產，以盡可能保持其強勁的勢頭。

James Picariello, BNP Paribas.

詹姆斯·皮卡里洛，法國巴黎銀行。

Good morning, everyone. Just as we think about next year, are we at a point at all to quantify the next slate of cost savings beyond the $310 million program with respect to plant closures, which you touched on in your prepared remarks and just overall, I guess, stronger execution?

各位早安。當我們展望明年時，我們是否已經到了可以量化下一批成本節約的階段，除了您在準備好的發言稿中提到的3.1億美元工廠關閉計劃之外，以及總體上更強有力的執行？

Yeah. Thanks for that question. It's a good one. But yeah, I would say, in terms of the opportunity we have to expand our margins, we still have a long way to go. If you think about the $310 million, it's heavily focused on things that we could implement quickly without investment.

是的。謝謝你的提問。這是個好主意。但是，就我們擴大利潤空間的機會而言，我們還有很長的路要走。如果你仔細想想這 3.1 億美元，你會發現它主要集中在一些無需投資就能快速實施的項目上。

And so if I just look at that bucket of costs through standardization and some systems work, we would still say we probably have another $50 million, $75 million that we can get over the next few years. If I look at the cost base outside of where we've been focusing on in terms of our plants, for sure, we've got some footprint opportunities, and we announced one earlier this month.

因此，如果我只考慮透過標準化和一些系統工作來降低這部分成本，我們仍然會說，在未來幾年裡，我們可能還可以再節省 5,000 萬美元到 7,500 萬美元。如果我看一下我們工廠以外其他方面的成本基礎，可以肯定的是，我們有一些擴大規模的機會，我們本月早些時候就宣布了一項。

I would say, just given the amount of investment that we've had to make in electric vehicle over the last few years, we've made those investments, you could think about at the expense of our core operations. And so if you looked at the level of automation that we have in our plants, it is well below what you would see at other well-capitalized suppliers.

我想說，鑑於過去幾年我們在電動車領域投入的巨額資金，這些投資可以說是以犧牲我們的核心業務為代價的。因此，如果你看看我們工廠的自動化水平，你會發現它遠低於其他資金雄厚的供應商的水平。

I think we've got other opportunities in terms of product line rationalization. We still have a lot of products where we make inadequate or negative returns, and we're working our way through that.

我認為我們在產品線合理化方面還有其他機會。我們仍然有很多產品的收益不足甚至為負，我們正在努力解決這個問題。

And then I would say, lastly, would be on the EV side. We do expect to continue to refine our cost base there and get that business from being a drag on our margins to being accretive. And I expect that to flip around here in the next 6 to 12 months.

最後，我想談談電動車方面的問題。我們確實希望繼續優化那裡的成本結構，使該業務從拖累我們的利潤率轉變為增加我們的利潤率。我預計未來 6 到 12 個月內情況會發生逆轉。

So there is still an awful lot of levers that we can pull. I don't see 10% or 10.5% as being our high watermark. I believe we've got opportunity to continue to grow it fairly significantly over the next couple of years.

所以，我們仍然有很多方法可以運用。我不認為 10% 或 10.5% 是我們的最高目標。我相信在未來幾年裡，我們有機會繼續實現相當大的成長。

Got it. That's really helpful. And my follow-on, maybe on the topic of plant automation. How are you thinking about the right run rate for CapEx as a percentage of sales next year? And then could you just remind us what's assumed or expected for the stranded costs capture for next year as well?

知道了。這真的很有幫助。我的後續問題，或許是關於工廠自動化的問題。您認為明年資本支出佔銷售額的合適比例是多少？那麼，您能否再提醒我們一下，明年擱淺成本的估算或預期是多少？

Yeah, James, so about sort of think of CapEx in about the 4% of sales range. So that's probably where we'll end up, plus or minus. In terms of stranded costs, it's probably $30 million to $40 million. We do expect to be able to start taking a good chunk of those costs out as once we close the -- we close the transaction and move into 2026.

是的，James，所以資本支出大概應該佔銷售額的 4% 左右。所以最終結果可能就是這樣，上下浮動一點。就擱淺成本而言，可能在 3,000 萬至 4,000 萬美元之間。我們預計，一旦交易完成並進入 2026 年，我們將能夠開始削減其中很大一部分成本。

Now, some of those costs will remain because we'll have some transitional services that will need to be provided, but they'll be offset with payments from Allison for that. But again, $30 million to $40 million, and we believe we'll be able to take all those out really as we get through and we exit 2026.

現在，部分費用仍將存在，因為我們需要提供一些過渡性服務，但這些費用將由 Allison 支付的款項來抵銷。但同樣，3000萬至4000萬美元，我們相信，隨著我們度過難關，到2026年底，我們將能夠真正把這些錢全部收回來。

You'll see next year a fairly big -- within that number that Tim talked about, a fairly big step-up in terms of automation expenditure next year. And I don't want anybody being misled here. It's like we're not talking about humanoid robots and stuff like that.

明年你會看到——在蒂姆提到的那個數字範圍內——自動化支出方面會有相當大的成長。我不想讓任何人被誤導。感覺我們討論的根本不是人形機器人之類的東西。

We're talking about basic automation, unloading and loading machines, AGVs moving material in our factories. We're way behind the automotive standard. And I view that as a huge opportunity for us.

我們談論的是基本的自動化，包括工廠裡的裝卸機器和AGV（自動導引車）搬運物料。我們在汽車行業標準方面遠遠落後。我認為這對我們來說是一個巨大的機會。

Joe Spak, UBS.

喬·斯帕克，瑞銀集團。

I just wanted to maybe follow up on that last point. So it sounds like there's a big bucket of opportunity here, but it will require some investments. I just want to be clear, should we expect some of that investment to start next year? And then maybe savings and just say how quickly can savings come in after that investment?

我只是想就最後一點補充一下。聽起來這裡蘊藏著巨大的機遇，但這需要一些投資。我想確認一下，我們是否可以預期部分投資在明年開始實施？然後或許可以考慮儲蓄，例如投資後多久能獲得儲蓄？

Yeah, we will. I mean if you think about it, we've been spending pretty significantly on EV over the last few years. We'll -- the easy way to think about this is we plan to take some of those dollars and re-deploy them. As Bruce mentioned, we were investing in EV, to some extent, at the expense of some of the stuff in our normal old-school ICE plants, and we'll spend that capital to find areas.

是的，我們會的。我的意思是，仔細想想，過去幾年我們在電動車領域投入了相當多的資金。簡單來說，我們計劃將其中一部分資金重新投入使用。正如布魯斯所提到的，我們在某種程度上投資了電動車，這犧牲了我們一些傳統的內燃機工廠的資金，我們將把這些資金用於尋找新的領域。

And by the way, it's a target-rich environment in terms of being able to improve the efficiency on the plant floor. I mean, we do this every day, but this will be a bit more deliberate and accelerated as we go through and those dollars are freed up.

順便說一句，就提高工廠車間效率而言，這是一個充滿機會的環境。我的意思是，我們每天都在做這件事，但隨著資金的釋放，這件事會更加謹慎、更迅速地進行。

Don't forget that as we come through the transaction, we'll free up a lot of cash flow -- operating cash flow from lower interest expense and lower taxes, and we intend to make sure that we're investing in the right places at the right returns for the business to drive shareholder value.

別忘了，隨著交易的完成，我們將釋放大量現金流——來自利息支出和稅收減少的經營現金流，我們打算確保在正確的領域進行投資，獲得正確的回報，從而提升股東價值。

Yeah. With that level of CapEx, we're still maintaining our 4% free cash flow guide.

是的。即使資本支出達到這個水平，我們仍然維持 4% 的自由現金流預期。

Right. Okay. But some of it is redeployment and some of it's incremental is the right way to --?

正確的。好的。但其中一些是重新部署，而另一些是漸進式的，這才是正確的方法。——？

Yeah. Correct. That's correct. I mean, we're below that, obviously, today, but our view is that will have more -- given the improvement at the operating margin level, we're going to redeploy some of those dollars that we're delivering from increased profitability back into the business to generate the snowball effect and continue to drive those margins higher over the next two, three years.

是的。正確的。沒錯。我的意思是，顯然，我們目前的利潤率低於這個水平，但我們認為，鑑於營業利潤率的提高，未來會有更大的成長空間。我們將把從獲利能力提升中獲得的部分資金重新投入到業務中，以產生滾雪球效應，並在未來兩三年內繼續提高利潤率。

Yeah, this is fairly short payback stuff.

是的，這東西回報週期相當短。

I guess the second question, I just want to make sure I heard correctly, Bruce, I think in your opening comments, you talked about some EV charges in the quarter. I think that related to -- I don't know if that was some of the plant actions you took.

我想問第二個問題，我只是想確認我是否聽得正確，布魯斯，我想你在開場白中談到了本季度的一些電動車充電情況。我認為這與——我不知道這是否是你採取的一些植物養護措施有關。

But then you sort of alluded to a recovery maybe from lower EV volumes in the fourth quarter. I guess, a, were those -- are those charges in the third quarter results? And then is the recovery in the guidance? And how much are we talking about here?

但你隨後似乎暗示，第四季電動車銷量下降後可能會出現復甦。我猜，a，那些費用是──那些費用是計入第三季業績的嗎？那麼，復甦計畫是否包含在指導方針中？我們這裡說的金額是多少？

Yeah. So we did take -- I mean, let's say, charges. We did have to book some additional costs related to some of the EV programs that were canceled during the quarter. It's a number of different OEMs.

是的。所以我們確實採取了——我的意思是，比如說，指控。由於本季部分電動車項目被取消，我們不得不計入一些額外的費用。它由多家不同的原始設備製造商 (OEM) 組成。

The total number is, you can call it, $10 million-ish, maybe, plus or minus. It's not a massive number. But again, we are in active discussions with the customer over recovery of these amounts and we expect to get those in the fourth quarter.

總數大概在 1000 萬美元左右，上下浮動一些。這個數字並不算大。但是，我們正在與客戶積極協商追回這些款項，預計將在第四季度收到這些款項。

Yeah, they just didn't match.

是的，它們根本不匹配。

It just didn't match up. The accounting rules are a little different between what we got to book in terms of cost and what we have to book in terms of the recoveries and since they're non-contractual on the recoveries. But I don't want to get into specifics of programs or customers because, obviously, we're actively engaged with those discussions with the customer today.

兩者根本不符。會計準則在成本入帳和回收入帳之間略有不同，而且回收入帳是非合約性的。但我不想透露具體的項目或客戶訊息，因為很顯然，我們目前正在與客戶積極進行相關討論。

No, that's totally fine.

不，完全沒問題。

$8 million or $10 million in Q3 that we anticipate recovering in Q4.

第三季虧損 800 萬至 1,000 萬美元，預計第四季將恢復。

Correct.

正確的。

I guess what I wanted to make sure was that that was actually in the results. You're not excluding that to (multiple speakers) --

我想確認的是，結果確實包含了這一點。你並沒有排除這一點（多位發言者）——

It is included in the adjusted EBITDA number, Joe.

喬，這已經包含在調整後的 EBITDA 數據中了。

Ryan Brinkman, JPMorgan.

Ryan Brinkman，摩根大通。

And I know we just had the discussion about what's next in terms of the additional opportunity to improve margin and cash flow beyond even the 10% to 10.5% and 4% of sales that you target, respectively, you continue to target for 2026. I don't think that's a premature discussion to have.

我知道我們剛剛討論過，接下來還有什麼機會可以進一步提高利潤率和現金流，即使你們的目標銷售額分別為 10% 到 10.5% 和 4%，你們也繼續為 2026 年設定了這一目標。我認為現在討論這個問題並不為時過早。

I plan to ask that question myself. If you really are at 10% to 10.5% exit run rate at the end of the fourth quarter. But maybe just taking a step back, I mean, it's worth pointing out, I think consensus is at like 9.4% for next year for EBITDA margin.

我打算親自問這個問題。如果你在第四季末的退出率真的達到了 10% 到 10.5%。但或許我們應該退一步來看，我的意思是，值得一提的是，我認為市場普遍預期明年 EBITDA 利潤率約為 9.4%。

So maybe just review a little bit to your confidence in next year and the lack of incremental execution, I think, that may be needed to get there in on the free cash flow number too. Are there like additional levers that you need to pull? Or you feel like you're pretty much going to be on track for that so long as the end markets are there by the end of this quarter?

所以，或許應該稍微回顧一下你對明年的信心，以及缺乏必要的漸進式執行，我認為，這對於實現自由現金流目標也是必要的。是否還需要拉動其他控制桿？或者你覺得只要本季末終端市場到位，你就能基本按計畫達成這個目標？

So just -- so making your assumption on end markets as the premise, Bruce and I and the entire team are supremely confident in our ability to deliver what we've said for next year and the fourth quarter, we think, is a good indication of that. Do I think there's opportunities above that?

所以——所以，以終端市場為前提，布魯斯、我和整個團隊對我們實現明年目標的能力充滿信心，我們認為第四季的業績就是一個很好的證明。我認為除此之外還有機會嗎？

Absolutely, I do. We -- there's a lot of things can go right and a lot of things can go wrong over the course of a year. But yes, we think there are additional opportunities both in terms of margin and cash flow even in 2026. Right now, we're focused on closing out 2025, delivering the $310 million, and really setting the company and the team up for delivering on next year.

當然，我同意。我們——一年之中，很多事情可能會進展順利，也有很多事情可能會出錯。但是，我們認為即使到了 2026 年，在利潤率和現金流方面仍然存在更多機會。目前，我們專注於完成 2025 年的收尾工作，實現 3.1 億美元的目標，並為公司和團隊明年取得佳績做好充分準備。

So like when you say the consensus is below that, Bruce and I share a bit of frustration. I mean we've been saying this here for the better part of the year, and we're really -- we're thinking that what we're going to deliver in fourth quarter will help cement the fact that we're going to deliver that 10% to 10.5% next year with potentially some upside.

所以，就像你說的，大家的共識低於這個水平，我和布魯斯都感到有些沮喪。我的意思是，我們今年大部分時間都在強調這一點，而且我們真的認為，第四季度我們將取得的成績將有助於鞏固我們明年實現 10% 到 10.5% 的增長目標，並且可能還有一些增長空間。

Yeah. I'd say, Ryan, in terms of -- here's how I look at it. We -- a year ago, we said we're going to be 10% to 10.5%. And our consensus has slowly moved up. The reason why we bought back our stock so aggressively is because we're highly confident in our number. And if you use our number, our stock price is significantly undervalued. And so it's almost like we're buying two and getting one free.

是的。瑞安，就我而言──我是這麼看的。一年前，我們說過我們的成長率將達到 10% 到 10.5%。我們的共識也逐漸增強。我們之所以如此積極地回購股票，是因為我們對自己的業績非常有信心。如果按照我們的數據來看，我們的股價被嚴重低估了。所以這就像買二送一一樣。

So on sale. Stock is on sale right now.

正在打折。目前庫存正在促銷。

And congrats on the execution so far. Maybe just to finish on the end market point. I feel you have been -- well, others have been quicker to point out the headwinds that they were experiencing in the Commercial Vehicle market, both in North America and in Brazil.

祝賀目前為止的執行情況。或許最後只要談談終端市場這一點即可。我覺得你——嗯，其他人更快指出了他們在北美和巴西商用車市場遇到的不利因素。

And I just wonder if you're situated a little bit differently relative to some of the competition. I don't know if it's a Class 5 through 7 relative to 8 or I'm not sure, but you are seeing the softening now. I mean others are saying the floor has fallen out on the new vehicle builds in North America. So just curious if maybe you've got a little bit different exposure, a little bit more on the aftermarket? I'm not sure.

我只是想知道，相對於一些競爭對手，你們的處境是否略有不同。我不知道它相對於 8 級來說是 5 級到 7 級，或者我不確定，但你現在確實看到了軟化現象。我的意思是，其他人都說北美新車製造業已經徹底崩潰了。所以我只是好奇，您是否對售後市場有一些不同的了解？我不知道。

Yeah. So obviously, we have exposure to aftermarket, but I would assume most of the other players do as well. Look, vehicle fleets are aging. They're still up there. We do think that the run rate we're at now is still pretty low.

是的。顯然，我們涉足售後市場，但我認為其他大多數玩家也是如此。你看，車隊正在老化。它們還在那裡。我們認為我們目前的勝率仍然很低。

Now, we had some of this built in. So all others are calling it. I mean we were building a bit more conservative into the CV vehicle build when we came out three months ago. So that's part of the reason why we're not probably as calling it out as much now and we're holding to the $7.4 billion.

現在，我們已經內建了一些這樣的功能。所以其他人都這麼說。我的意思是，三個月前我們推出商用車時，我們的設計理念比較保守。所以，這或許也是我們現在沒有像以前那樣大肆宣揚，堅持74億美元的說法的原因之一。

But I think as we move into next year, the first half is not going to be -- we're not going to see gains, but we don't see it going a whole lot lower than we are now. I just don't think, even with the backdrop that the age of the fleet, they'll have to do some work to replace it.

但我認為，進入明年後，上半年不會出現——我們不會看到成長，但我們也不認為它會比現在低很多。即使考慮到艦隊的年限，我也不認為他們需要做任何工作來取代它。

Yeah. I would maybe just adding to that one on the CV side, our business has gained share. If you look at our share of wallet, our customers were -- we've done a lot of -- the team, prior to when I got here, had done a lot of good work on re-footprinting that business. And I think we have a cost advantage model right now, and we are picking up share at our -- at the big three customers that we have exposure to here in North America, which is helping to offset some of the market deterioration.

是的。我可能還要補充一點，在履歷表方面，我們的業務已經獲得了市場份額。如果你看看我們的市場份額，我們的客戶——我們做了很多——在我來之前，團隊在重新佈局這項業務方面做了很多出色的工作。我認為我們目前擁有成本優勢模式，我們正在北美三大客戶中不斷擴大市場份額，這有助於抵消部分市場惡化的影響。

Yeah, that's a really good point, right? Our share at some of these has increased significantly over the past 12 months, and we expect that to hold and continue to increase.

是啊，這確實是個很好的觀點，對吧？在過去 12 個月裡，我們在其中一些公司的股份大幅成長，我們預計這一比例將保持並繼續增長。

Dan Levy, Barclays.

丹·利維，巴克萊銀行。

Josh on for Dan today. Thanks for taking my question. As my first one, I just was trying to wonder how we should bridge the 4Q margin into 2026? I understand on the slides, it shows the main drivers of increased margin. We're trying to figure out if there's anything weird in 4Q that wouldn't, I guess, imply like a larger step-up in margin in next year?

今天Josh代替Dan上場。謝謝您回答我的問題。作為我的第一個問題，我只是在思考我們應該如何將第四季的利潤率延續到 2026 年？我從幻燈片上了解到，它展示了利潤率成長的主要驅動因素。我們正在努力弄清楚第四季度是否有任何異常情況，而這些異常情況可能預示著明年利潤率會有更大的提升？

No. I mean these are really the -- if you look at page 12, right, those basis points are off of our total 2025 full year continuing ops basis financials. So they're not off of the fourth quarter. But obviously, when you look at the fourth quarter, it's highly indicative of what we -- why we believe the full-year overall run rate bridges into that 10% to 10.5% next year.

不。我的意思是，如果你看一下第 12 頁，對吧，這些基點是我們 2025 年全年持續經營財務數據的總和。所以他們還沒結束第四節比賽。但顯然，當你觀察第四季時，它很好地表明了我們——為什麼我們認為全年整體運行率明年將達到 10% 到 10.5%。

Okay. So I guess we should assume that -- I mean, I guess a decent portion of those main drivers are included already within the 4Q margin?

好的。所以我想我們應該假設——我的意思是，我想這些主要驅動因素中的相當一部分已經包含在第四季度的利潤率中了？

Yeah. Think about the cost saving. It's 100 basis points. We -- I mean our fourth quarter, when you look at the full run rate out of 2025, right, we're going to deliver $235 million. We had $10 million last year. That's already in $245 million off of where we were at in 2024.

是的。想想能節省多少成本。是100個基點。我們——我的意思是，從第四季到 2025 年的整體運行率來看，我們將實現 2.35 億美元的收入。我們去年有1000萬美元。這比我們原先設定的 2024 年的目標少了 2.45 億美元。

So like that incremental $65 million of -- or $75 million of cost savings runs through next year, and we'll have a full run rate of $310 million. So that's 100 basis points-ish right there.

這樣一來，每年就能節省 6,500 萬美元或 7,500 萬美元的成本，到明年，我們的總成本節省將達到 3.1 億美元。所以，這大概就是100個基點左右。

And then stranded costs, right? We just talked about that. That adds some incremental margin in the business because right now, when you look at our continuing ops, it's burdened with the stranded costs that we expect to take out.

然後還有擱淺成本，對吧？我們剛才就談到了這件事。這為業務增加了一些額外的利潤，因為目前，當你觀察我們的持續營運時，你會發現它背負著我們預期會消除的擱淺成本。

So to say it modestly, I think from our perspective, moving from where we're at on a full average basis this year to 10% to 10.5% next year, we do not see -- assuming the markets hold up, that we're going to have any trouble getting to 10% to 10.5% next year. And again, our fourth quarter run rate supports that in a very strong manner.

所以保守地說，我認為從我們的角度來看，從今年的平均水平到明年的 10% 到 10.5%，我們認為——假設市場保持穩定——明年達到 10% 到 10.5% 的目標不會有任何問題。此外，我們第四季的運行率也強有力地印證了這一點。

Another follow-up. I know you mentioned some of your key platform volumes are holding in next year. I know some of your customers have mentioned that just given the regulatory environment, some of the platforms can go to, I guess, with your mix off-road performance trends. I was just wondering if you would have like -- I'm going to see a significant benefit from some of those power chain changes?

後續跟進。我知道您提到過，明年您的一些關鍵平台交易量將保持穩定。我知道你們的一些客戶提到，鑑於目前的監管環境，一些平台可能會受到影響，我想，這與你們的越野性能趨勢有關。我只是想知道，您是否認為—我能否從這些動力鏈的改變中獲得顯著的好處？

Yeah. I mean, obviously, better mix. I mean, we're one of the original creators of the four-wheel drive vehicle where we created the Wrangler or the Jeep for the government for World War II. So yeah, richer mix, larger axles. So if you think of Wrangler, right, if that mix moves further to Rubicon, that's much better for us.

是的。我的意思是，很明顯，更好的混合方式。我的意思是，我們是四輪驅動車輛的早期創造者之一，我們為政府在二戰期間製造了牧馬人或吉普車。所以，沒錯，更濃鬱的混合氣，更大的軸。所以，如果你想到 Wrangler，對吧，如果這個混合模式進一步發展到 Rubicon，那對我們來說就更好了。

We have more content on it. The same would be true for Bronco. And Bruce already mentioned Super Duty with Ford's plans to expand that capacity and build more trucks. For us, that's a great program to have content on. And that content, if it gets richer, is better for us as it is for the OEM.

我們還有更多相關內容。Bronco的情況也是如此。布魯斯已經提到了福特計劃擴大產能並生產更多卡車的Super Duty車型。對我們來說，這是一個非常適合發佈內容的節目。而且，如果內容變得更豐富，對我們和OEM廠商來說都是好事。

Colin Langan, Wells Fargo.

柯林‧蘭根，富國銀行。

I just want to follow up on the sequential margin increase of $220 million on lower sales. I mean, just to make sure I'm capturing all the factors, you have the incremental cost savings from Q3 to Q4. I think you mentioned like $20 million of EV headwinds and those will get recovered.

我只是想跟進一下銷售額下降的情況下，利潤率卻是季增 2.2 億美元的情況。我的意思是，為了確保我考慮到了所有因素，這裡還要考慮從第三季到第四季的增量成本節約。我想你提到過電動車領域面臨的2000萬美元的阻力，這些成本將會得到彌補。

So it's like -- sorry, $10 million of headwinds that will get recovered. So $20 million maybe swing quarter-over-quarter. And then I think mix. Are those the big factors?

所以就像——抱歉，1000萬美元的逆風損失將會得到彌補。所以季度環比波動可能達到 2000 萬美元。然後我想混合一下。這些是主要因素嗎？

And then a little surprised by the -- I thought you said in the last quarter, you had taken most of the actions. So I'm a little surprised there's even more coming sequentially in Q3 and Q4.

然後我有點驚訝——我以為你在上個季度說過，你已經採取了大部分行動。所以，我有點驚訝，第三季和第四季竟然還有更多專案陸續推出。

Yeah. When you say -- Colin, this is Tim. And when you say actions, what are you talking about for actions? You talked about the cost saving actions?

是的。你說——科林，這是提姆。你說的行動，指的是什麼行動？您談到了節約成本的措施？

Yeah. I thought that was the comment you made last --

是的。我以為那是你上次說的話。--

Yeah. No, I mean -- but I mean, we had a -- we still have additional actions coming through the third and into the fourth. Now, I think the incremental or sequential savings will be lower in the fourth quarter. It's implied when you look at our $235 million. So they're obviously slowing down.

是的。不，我的意思是——我的意思是，我們——我們仍然會在第三季和第四季採取其他行動。現在，我認為第四季的增量或環比節省金額將會降低。看看我們2.35億美元的數字就知道了。所以他們顯然是在放慢速度。

But right, we're on track to have a run rate exit at $310 million coming out. But we do have -- we do have those actions. There's also additional performance actions at the plant level that will come through in the fourth quarter.

但沒錯，我們正朝著每年3.1億美元的退出目標穩步前進。但我們確實採取了這些行動。第四季也將推出工廠層級的其他績效改善措施。

I mentioned, hey, we're in the middle of rationalizing some product, and that's been a headwind for us in our performance and in the volume and mix through the first three quarters of the year, we do see that improving as well. So that's -- all of that combined continues to drive that margin from quarter-to-quarter up.

我提到過，我們正在對一些產品進行合理化調整，這在今年前三個季度對我們的業績、銷量和產品組合都造成了不利影響，但我們也看到這種情況正在改善。因此，所有這些因素加在一起，持續推動利潤率逐季上升。

Okay. Got it. And then I think in the past, you've mentioned that the backlog of $300 million for next year is still pretty much intact. Has that changed much with some of the EV cancellations that you just mentioned on the call. And in the past, it was like 70% EV or something. What are some of the ICE launches that are going to help as we think about next year?

好的。知道了。而且，我想你之前也提到過，明年3億美元的積壓訂單基本上保持不變。您剛才在電話會議上提到的一些電動車訂單取消情況，是否對此產生了較大影響？過去，電動車的佔比大概在70%左右。展望明年，有哪些ICE計畫將對我們有所幫助？

Yeah. So I don't want to get into the specifics, but our backlog has been impacted by program delays and cancellations. I think what we want to do is we'll take you through a pretty fulsome review of backlog and how it looks and how it shakes out in January, probably mid-January so that you get a really full view.

是的。所以我不想贅述細節，但我們的積壓工作受到了專案延期和取消的影響。我認為我們想做的是，我們會帶您全面回顧一下積壓的工作，看看它在 1 月份的情況，可能是 1 月中旬，最終結果如何，以便您能有一個非常全面的了解。

We're right in the middle of finalizing our plans for New Dana. And we want an opportunity to really have a -- give you the full information and be able to answer your questions then. So I think that's it. But we do see increases in ICE, no question about it, from a backlog perspective.

我們正在敲定新達納的計劃。我們希望有機會真正地——向您提供完整的信息，並能夠回答您的問題。我想就是這樣了。但從積壓案件的角度來看，我們確實看到ICE（內燃機）數量增加，這點毋庸置疑。

There's EV in there, but the proportion will be more ICE.

裡面會有電動車，但內燃機汽車的比例會更高。

Yeah.

是的。

Okay. But nothing -- has anything changed since the last quarter with the comments on --?

好的。但自上個季度以來，關於這方面的評論沒有任何改變。——？

Yeah. Sure. I mean, obviously, we've had cancellations in EV. I mean like we talked about the headwind alert. So absolutely, that's impacting -- that will impact some of the backlog that we have out there.

是的。當然。我的意思是，很顯然，電動車領域也出現了訂單取消的情況。我的意思是，就像我們之前討論過的逆風預警一樣。所以，這肯定會對我們積壓的一些工作產生影響。

And delays.

以及延誤。

Yeah.

是的。

Okay. Maybe with that, we'll get into some closing comments here. So first of all, and it goes without saying, thanks to the Dana team for continuing to deliver on our commitments. Like I said earlier in my comments, despite external headwinds, we're over delivering on the things that we can control and I couldn't be prouder to be part of the team.

好的。或許到此，我們就可以做一些總結性的評論了。首先，毋庸置疑，感謝 Dana 團隊繼續履行我們的承諾。正如我之前所說，儘管面臨外部不利因素，但我們在可控範圍內都取得了超出預期的成績，我為能成為團隊的一員而感到無比自豪。

A year ago, we committed to three things: one, selling our Off-Highway business and we're very close to having that done. When that has been completed, we will have returned a substantial amount of capital to our shareholders and still be left with what we think is a best-in-class balance sheet in terms of our sector.

一年前，我們承諾做三件事：第一，出售我們的非公路業務，我們離完成這件事已經非常接近了。完成這些工作後，我們將向股東返還大量資金，同時我們仍將擁有我們認為在同行業中一流的資產負債表。

We committed to $200 million of cost reduction, which we subsequently up to $310 million, and we're in great shape and basically at that run rate here this quarter. And then lastly and very importantly, we said we could get to double-digit margins in 2026, and we're exiting 2025 at that level.

我們承諾削減 2 億美元的成本，後來增加到 3.1 億美元，目前情況良好，本季基本上保持了這一進度。最後，也是非常重要的一點，我們說過我們可以在 2026 年實現兩位數的利潤率，而我們在 2025 年結束時已經達到了這個水平。

I know there was a healthy amount of skepticism around some of our -- some of these commitments last year, but hopefully, the market also recognize that the Dana team is delivering on its commitment. Despite some EV deterioration, we have an impressive backlog that we will talk about in January. It does have a combination of both ICE and EV. But as we said before, EV will be a smaller percent there. And we'll see a lot more details on our January call.

我知道去年我們的一些承諾受到了不少質疑，但希望市場也能認識到到達納團隊正在履行其承諾。儘管電動車業務出現了一些下滑，但我們仍有相當可觀的訂單積壓，我們將在1月討論這個問題。它結合了內燃機和電動車兩種動力系統。但正如我們之前所說，電動車在那裡的比例會比較小。我們將在1月的電話會議上看到更多細節。

Long term, I continue to see a lot of upside in terms of our margin potential. I think a combination of us getting our margins up to the double digit and growing them beyond the 10% to 10.5% in 2026, combined with our balance sheet, we believe we're going to be rewarded with multiple expansion. And so I think we've got an extremely motivated management team here.

從長遠來看，我仍然認為我們的利潤潛力很大。我認為，如果我們能將利潤率提高到兩位數，並在 2026 年將其增長到 10% 至 10.5% 以上，再加上我們良好的資產負債表，我們相信我們將獲得估值倍數擴張的回報。所以我認為我們這裡有一支積極性極高的管理團隊。

I couldn't be prouder of the accomplishments year-to-date, and I think our best days are in front of us. And so with that, thanks for joining us on our call today.

我對今年迄今為止的成就感到無比自豪，而且我認為我們最好的日子還在後頭。那麼，感謝各位今天參加我們的電話會議。

This will conclude today's call. Thank you all for joining. You may now disconnect.

今天的電話會議到此結束。感謝各位的參與。您現在可以斷開連線了。