道明尼資源 (D) 2020 Q4 法說會逐字稿

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  • Operator

    Operator

  • Welcome to the Dominion Energy Fourth Quarter 2020 Earnings Conference Call. (Operator Instructions)

    歡迎參加 Dominion Energy 2020 年第四季財報電話會議。 (操作員指示)

  • I would now like to turn the call over to Steven Ridge, Vice President, Investor Relations.

    現在我想將電話轉給投資者關係副總裁史蒂文·里奇 (Steven Ridge)。

  • Steven D. Ridge - Director of IR

    Steven D. Ridge - Director of IR

  • Good morning, and thank you for joining today's call.

    早安,感謝您參加今天的電話會議。

  • Earnings materials, including today's prepared remarks, may contain forward-looking statements and estimates that are subject to various risks and uncertainties. Please refer to our SEC filings, including our most recent annual reports on Form 10-K and our quarterly reports on Form 10-Q, for a discussion of factors that may cause results to differ from management's estimates and expectations.

    收益資料(包括今天的準備好的評論)可能包含前瞻性陳述和估計,這些陳述和估計受各種風險和不確定性的影響。請參閱我們向美國證券交易委員會 (SEC) 提交的文件,包括我們最新的 10-K 表年度報告和 10-Q 表季度報告,以了解可能導致業績與管理層估計和預期不同的因素。

  • This morning, we'll discuss some measures of our company's performance that differ from those recognized by GAAP. Reconciliation of our non-GAAP measures to the most directly comparable GAAP financial measures which we can calculate are contained in the earnings release kit. I encourage you to visit our Investor Relations website to review webcast slides as well as the earnings release kit.

    今天上午,我們將討論一些與 GAAP 指標不同的公司績效指標。非 GAAP 指標與我們能夠計算的最直接可比較 GAAP 財務指標的對帳表已包含在收益發布資料包中。建議您造訪我們的投資者關係網站,查看網路直播幻燈片以及收益發布資料包。

  • Joining today's call are Tom Farrell, Executive Chairman; Bob Blue, President and Chief Executive Officer; Jim Chapman, Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer; and other members of the executive management team.

    參加今天電話會議的有執行主席湯姆·法雷爾 (Tom Farrell)、總裁兼首席執行官鮑勃·布魯 (Bob Blue)、執行副總裁兼首席財務官吉姆·查普曼 (Jim Chapman) 以及其他執行管理團隊成員。

  • I will now turn the call over to Tom.

    我現在將電話轉給湯姆。

  • Thomas F. Farrell - Executive Chairman

    Thomas F. Farrell - Executive Chairman

  • Thank you, Steve, and good morning, everyone. I want to start by outlining Dominion Energy's compelling shareholder return proposition. We expect to grow our earnings per share by 6.5% per year through at least 2025, supported by our updated $32 billion 5-year capital growth plan. We offer an attractive dividend yield of approximately 3.5%, reflecting a target payout ratio of 65% and an expected long-term dividend per share growth rate of 6%.

    謝謝史蒂夫,大家早安。首先,我想概述道明尼恩能源令人信服的股東回報方案。我們預計至少到2025年,每股盈餘將每年成長6.5%,這得益於我們最新的320億美元五年資本成長計畫。我們提供約3.5%的誘人股息收益率,這反映了65%的目標派息率和6%的預期長期每股股息成長率。

  • This resulting 10% total shareholder return proposition is combined with an industry-leading ESG profile, characterized by what we believe is the largest, regulated decarbonization investment opportunity in the country. We plan to invest tens of billions of dollars over the next several years to the benefit of the environment, our customers, our communities and our local economies.

    由此產生的10%股東總回報目標,結合業界領先的ESG績效,我們認為這是美國規模最大、受監管的脫碳投資機會。我們計劃在未來幾年投資數百億美元,造福環境、客戶、社區和當地經濟。

  • Our strategy is anchored on a pure-play, state-regulated utility operating profile that centers around 5 premier states, as shown on Slide 5. I'll share the philosophy with a common sense approach to energy policy and regulation puts a priority on safety, reliability, affordability, and increasingly, sustainability. These states also strive to create environments that promote sensible economic growth, which, like the rising tide, lifts all boats.

    我們的策略以純粹的、受州政府監管的公用事業營運模式為基礎,主要集中在五個主要州,如幻燈片5所示。我將分享這一理念,並以常識性的方式製定能源政策和監管,優先考慮安全性、可靠性、可負擔性以及日益增強的可持續性。這些州也致力於創造促進合理經濟成長的環境,就像水漲船高一樣,惠及所有船隻。

  • For instance, 3 of these state jurisdictions rank consistently in the top 4 best states for business as determined by independent analysis carried out by CNBC and by Forbes. Our state-regulated utility model offers investors increased predictability and is enhanced by our concentration in these fast-growing, constructive and business-friendly states.

    例如,根據CNBC和《福布斯》的獨立分析,這些州轄區中有三個州始終位列最佳經商州前四名。我們受州監管的公用事業模式為投資者提供了更高的可預測性,由於我們專注於這些快速成長、建設性且營商友好的州,其優勢也得到了進一步增強。

  • Turning to Slide 6. Dominion is a purpose-driven company and has adopted a comprehensive stakeholder approach. We are driven by the belief that the world's best companies consider the interest, not just of investors, but also employees, customers and communities and the well-being of the environment. Our actions are grounded in adherence to our 5 core values, and we embrace transparency and stakeholder engagement as hallmarks of responsible corporate citizenship.

    翻到第6張投影片。 Dominion是一家以目標為導向的公司,並採取了全面的利害關係人方法。我們堅信,全球最優秀的公司不僅會考慮投資人的利益,還會考慮員工、顧客、社區以及環境的福祉。我們的行動以堅持五大核心價值為基礎,並將透明度和利害關係人參與視為負責任企業公民的標誌。

  • The well-being of our over 17,000 employees is critical to our long-term success, and there is no measure more important to our company than the safety performance of our employees. 2020 represented, by a wide margin, the safest year of operations in the history of our company, as depicted on Slide 7. This result did not happen overnight. As you can see, it takes years of dedicated effort to drive sustainable improvement. I congratulate my colleagues on this significant achievement.

    我們超過17,000名員工的福祉對我們的長期成功至關重要,而對我們公司而言,沒有什麼比員工的安全績效更重要。如投影片7所示,2020年是我們公司史上營運最安全的一年,遠遠超出預期。這項成果並非一蹴可幾。如您所見,推動永續改進需要多年的不懈努力。我祝賀我的同事們取得這項重大成就。

  • Turning now to our customers and communities. We believe that it is not enough that we provide energy safely. We must also provide energy that is affordable. We are pleased the residential rates at our 2 electric utilities compare favorably to state, national, and, where applicable, RGGI state averages. Looking forward, we expect our customers to be very competitive, even as we invest heavily to transform our system's carbon footprint. Bob will address this more comprehensively in his remarks.

    現在談談我們的客戶和社區。我們認為,僅僅安全地提供能源是不夠的,我們還必須提供價格合理的能源。我們很高興看到,我們兩家電力公司的居民電價與州、全國以及(如適用)RGGI 州平均水平相比更具優勢。展望未來,即使我們投入大量資金來降低系統碳足跡,我們也預期我們的客戶仍將擁有極具競爭力的價格。 Bob 將在他的發言中更全面地闡述這一點。

  • With regard to our community initiatives during 2020, which are described on Slide 8. First, the impact of COVID-19 on our customers during 2020 was obviously significant, which is why we voluntarily took immediate action at the onset of the pandemic to suspend service disconnections. In doing this, we avoided what otherwise would have been disconnection of over 255,000 customer accounts. We also developed extended and flexible payment plans, resulting in over 330,000 enrollments. And we contributed $18 million toward direct energy assistance for our most vulnerable customers.

    關於我們2020年的社區計劃,詳情請見投影片8。首先,2020年新冠疫情對我們的客戶影響顯著,因此我們在疫情爆發之初就主動採取行動,暫停了服務中斷。此舉避免了超過25.5萬個客戶帳戶的中斷。我們也制定了靈活且延長的付款計劃,吸引了超過33萬名客戶加入。此外,我們還捐贈了1800萬美元,用於為最弱勢客戶直接提供能源援助。

  • In Virginia, we supported special session legislation, which gave customers a fresh start by forgiving over $125 million of customer arrears. We also agreed to a pause in our South Carolina rate case proceeding, ensuring that the results of that case will not impact customers until late this year.

    在維吉尼亞州,我們支持特別會議立法,該立法免除了超過1.25億美元的客戶欠款,讓客戶得以重新開始。我們也同意暫停南卡羅來納州的利率案件審理,確保案件的結果在今年年底前不會對客戶產生影響。

  • Second, we've built on our long-standing legacy of supporting social equity by committing $25 million to 11 historically Black colleges and universities, funding an additional $10 million for scholarships for underrepresented minority groups and creating a $5 million social justice fund that supports community efforts to address the impacts of racism. This is in addition to the diversity and inclusion initiatives within our company that Bob will address.

    其次,我們秉承長期以來支持社會公平的傳統,向11所傳統黑人學院和大學捐贈了2500萬美元,為代表性不足的少數族裔提供額外的1000萬美元獎學金,並設立了500萬美元的社會公正基金,支持社區應對種族主義影響的努力。此外,鮑伯也將介紹公司內部的多元化和包容性措施。

  • As you can tell, we are extremely proud of these accomplishments, and I thank all of my Dominion Energy colleagues who contributed to these successes in what was obviously an extraordinarily challenging year.

    如你所知,我們對這些成就感到非常自豪,我感謝所有 Dominion Energy 的同事,他們在這極具挑戰性的一年裡為這些成功做出了貢獻。

  • Turning now to Slide 9. We have rolled forward our 5-year capital growth plan to capture the years 2021 through 2025. This has resulted in a $10 billion or 43% increase to the plan we shared with you in the spring of 2019 as adjusted for the Gas Transmission & Storage sale. We now project $32 billion of growth capital investment on behalf of our customers, over 80% of which reduces or enables emissions reductions. We plan to invest $17 billion in zero-carbon generation and energy storage, including regulated offshore wind, solar and nuclear relicensing. Another $6 billion in electric grid enhancements, such as electric transmission and grid modernization, which will enable our system to be more resilient to cyber and climate threats and more responsive to increasing intermittent generation. And we plan to invest $3 billion on the modernization of our LDC networks, as well as on renewable natural gas development, thereby increasing safety and reliability while driving emissions down. Jim and Bob will provide more color on these industry-leading investment programs in a moment.

    現在翻到第9張投影片。我們已將五年資本成長計畫向前推進,涵蓋2021年至2025年。這導致我們在2019年春季與您分享的計劃基礎上增加了100億美元,增幅達43%,並根據天然氣輸送和儲存業務的出售進行了調整。我們目前計劃為客戶投資320億美元成長資本,其中超過80%將用於減少或實現減排。我們計劃投資170億美元用於零碳發電和儲能,包括受監管的離岸風電、太陽能和核電許可的再許可。另外,我們還計劃投資60億美元用於電網升級,例如電力傳輸和電網現代化,這將使我們的系統更能抵禦網路和氣候威脅,並更好地應對日益增長的間歇性發電。此外,我們計劃投資30億美元用於LDC網路的現代化以及再生天然氣的開發,從而在提高安全性和可靠性的同時降低排放。 Jim和Bob稍後將詳細介紹這些業界領先的投資計畫。

  • As meaningful as these near-term plans are, consider, on Slide 10, how they compare to the long-term scope and duration of our overall decarbonization opportunity. Our initiatives extend well beyond our 5-year plan. We have identified over $70 billion of green investment opportunity between 2020 and 2035, nearly all of which will qualify for regulated cost of service recovery. This is, as far as we can tell, the largest, regulated decarbonization investment opportunity in the industry.

    這些短期計畫意義重大,但請看第10張投影片,看看它們與我們整體脫碳機會的長期範圍和持續時間相比如何。我們的舉措遠遠超出了五年計畫。我們已經確定了2020年至2035年期間超過700億美元的綠色投資機會,其中幾乎所有機會都符合受監管的服務成本回收標準。據我們所知,這是業界規模最大的、受監管的脫碳投資機會。

  • And the accelerating electrification of the transportation sector promises to drive growing demand for utility-scale, zero and low-carbon generation for many years to come. The company's long-term transformation has multiple beneficiaries: our customers, who want more sustainable energy; our local communities, which benefit from the economic growth and tax revenue to the company's investments; our employees, who develop the best practices of the transition to a low-carbon future; and the environment via the emissions reductions we illustrate on Slide 11.

    交通運輸業電氣化的加速發展,預計在未來許多年將推動對公用事業規模、零碳和低碳發電的需求不斷增長。公司的長期轉型將使多方受益:我們的客戶,他們渴望更永續的能源;我們的當地社區,他們受益於公司投資帶來的經濟成長和稅收;我們的員工,他們開發了向低碳未來轉型的最佳實踐;以及透過我們在第11張幻燈片中展示的減排措施,為環境帶來益處。

  • Through 2019, inclusive of asset divestitures, we have successfully reduced our enterprise-wide, CO2-equivalent emissions by around 55%. This is great progress but we have more to do. By 2035, we expect to improve that reduction to between 70% and 80% versus baseline on our way to net 0 by 2050. As shown on the right side of the slide, by 2035, we expect that approximately 95% of our company-owned generation will be either 0 or low emitting, a remarkable transformation from our 2005 dispatch mix.

    截至2019年,包括資產剝離在內,我們已成功將全公司二氧化碳當量排放量減少了約55%。這是一個巨大的進步,但我們仍需付出更多努力。到2035年,我們預計減排量將達到基準值的70%至80%,並最終在2050年達到淨零排放。如投影片右側所示,到2035年,我們預期公司自有發電量中約95%將實現零排放或低排放,這與2005年的調度結構相比有著顯著的轉變。

  • Before turning it over to Jim, I will summarize the actions and events of 2020 that have positioned Dominion to thrive for years to come. We took care of one another. And in so doing, we achieved an all-time safety record. We took quick action to work with our customers to address the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic. We announced our ambition to be net 0 by 2050. The Virginia Clean Economy Act was adopted by the general assembly, which puts the state on a cutting-edge path to decarbonization and positions the state as a hub for the global green economy transition.

    在將時間交給吉姆之前,我將總結一下2020年Dominion公司為未來幾年蓬勃發展奠定基礎的行動和事件。我們互相照顧,並因此創造了前所未有的安全記錄。我們迅速採取行動,與客戶攜手應對新冠疫情的影響。我們宣布了2050年實現淨零排放的目標。維吉尼亞州議會通過了《維吉尼亞州清潔經濟法案》,該法案使該州走上了脫碳的前沿,並將該州定位為全球綠色經濟轉型的中心。

  • We advanced our strategic positioning by selling our Gas Transmission & Storage assets to focus on our premier, state-regulated utility operations. We simultaneously initiated best-in-class earnings and dividend growth rates. We reported our 20th consecutive quarter of weather-normal results that met or exceeded the midpoint of our quarterly guidance, and we transitioned both our CEO and lead director roles.

    我們透過出售天然氣輸送和儲存資產,專注於我們領先的、受州政府監管的公用事業業務,提升了戰略定位。我們同時實現了業界最佳的獲利和股息成長率。我們報告了連續20個季度在天氣正常的情況下業績達到或超過了季度預期中值,並且我們對首席執行官和首席董事的職位進行了變更。

  • With that, I will turn it over to Jim.

    說完這些,我就把麥克風交給吉姆。

  • James R. Chapman - Executive VP, CFO & Treasurer

    James R. Chapman - Executive VP, CFO & Treasurer

  • Thank you, Tom, and good morning. Our fourth quarter 2020 operating earnings, as shown on Slide 14, were $0.81 per share, which included a $0.01 hurt from worse-than-normal weather in our utility service territories. Both actual and weather-normalized results were above the midpoint of our quarterly guidance range. Full year 2020 operating earnings per share were $3.54, above the midpoint of our guidance range and included a $0.09 hurt from weather. Weather-normalized results of $3.63 were at the top of our annual guidance range.

    謝謝,湯姆,早安。如投影片14所示,我們2020年第四季的營業利潤為每股0.81美元,其中包括公用事業服務區域天氣狀況較差造成的0.01美元損失。實際業績和天氣標準化後的業績均高於我們季度指引區間的中點。 2020年全年每股營業利潤為3.54美元,高於我們指引區間的中點,其中包括天氣造成的0.09美元損失。天氣標準化後的表現為3.63美元,處於我們年度指引區間的上限。

  • Note that our fourth quarter and 2020 GAAP and operating earnings, together with comparative periods, are adjusted to account for discontinued operations, including those associated with the sale of assets to Berkshire Hathaway Energy. And then a summary of such adjustments between operating and reported results is, as usual, included in Schedule 2 of our earnings release kit.

    請注意,我們第四季度及2020年GAAP及營業利潤,連同比較期間的業績,均已根據已終止經營業務(包括與出售給伯克希爾·哈撒韋能源公司資產相關的業務)進行了調整。此類營業結果與報告結果之間的調整匯總,一如既往地包含在我們收益發布資料包的附表2中。

  • As shown on Slide 15, this represents our 20th consecutive quarter, so 5 years now, of delivering weather-normal results that meet or exceed the midpoint of our quarterly guidance range. We've highlighted here the July 5 Gas Transmission & Storage sale announcement on the chart as this was obviously -- obviously has had an impact on our original annual guidance, which is, of course, set prior to that transaction. But regardless, we believe the historic consistency across our quarterly results is worth highlighting, and it's a track record we are absolutely focused on extending.

    如投影片15所示,這代表我們連續第20個季度,也就是五年來,在天氣正常的情況下,業績達到或超過了季度預期範圍的中點。我們在圖表中突出顯示了7月5日天然氣輸送和儲存業務的出售公告,因為這顯然對我們最初的年度預期產生了影響,而該預期當然是在該交易之前製定的。但無論如何,我們認為我們季度業績的歷史一致性值得強調,而且我們絕對致力於延續這一良好記錄。

  • Turning now to Slide -- to guidance on Slide 16. As usual, we are providing a range for the year, which is designed primarily to account for variations from normal weather. We are initiating 2021 operating EPS guidance of $3.70 to $4 per share. The midpoint of this range is in line with the indicative guidance midpoint range we provided in July. Measured midpoint to midpoint, we expect approximately 10% growth in 2021, also consistent with our July guidance. Looking longer term, we expect operating EPS to grow off the 2021 base at around 6.5% per year through 2025. Finally, we expect first quarter 2021 operating earnings per share to be between $1 and $1.15.

    現在翻到投影片——第 16 張投影片上的指引。像往常一樣,我們提供了全年的指引區間,主要是為了考慮正常天氣的變化。我們初始的 2021 年每股營業收益指引為 3.70 美元至 4 美元。該區間的中點與我們 7 月提供的指導性指引中點區間一致。以中點對中點的比率計算,我們預期 2021 年的成長幅度約為 10%,這也與我們 7 月的指引一致。從長遠來看,我們預計到 2025 年,每股營業收益將在 2021 年的基礎上以每年約 6.5% 的速度成長。最後,我們預計 2021 年第一季每股營業收益將在 1 美元至 1.15 美元之間。

  • Turning to Slide 17. We expect our 2021 full year dividend to be $2.52, reflecting our target payout ratio of approximately 65%. We're also extending the long-range dividend per share growth rate of 6% off that '21 base through 2025.

    翻到第17張幻燈片。我們預計2021年全年股利為2.52美元,反映出我們約65%的目標股利支付率。我們也將以2021年為基數,每股6%的長期股利成長率延長至2025年。

  • Slide 18 provides a breakdown of the 5-year growth CapEx roll-forward which Tom introduced. For more details on this, I would point to the very comprehensive appendix materials. We've really put some effort into providing all the more granular detail which we expect will be useful for understanding and modeling each part of this growth profile.

    投影片 18 詳細分析了 Tom 介紹的 5 年期成長資本支出滾轉。如需了解更多詳情,請參閱內容詳盡的附錄資料。我們確實付出了很大努力,提供了更細緻的細節,希望這些細節有助於理解和建模此成長概況的各個部分。

  • But just a few items I'll highlight here. We are forecasting a total 5-year rate base CAGR of around 9%, broken out here by segment and by major driver. I would note that nearly 3/4 of this planned growth CapEx is eligible for rider recovery. That nomenclature varies, but capital invested under riders, rate adjustment clauses or trackers, as they're called in various jurisdictions, allows for more timely recovery of prudently incurred investments and costs. They're filed and trued up at least annually in single-issue proceedings, so outside of the more time-consuming and less frequent general base rate proceedings.

    但我只想強調幾點。我們預測五年期利率基準複合年增長率約為9%,並按細分市場和主要驅動因素進行細分。需要指出的是,近四分之三的計畫成長資本支出符合附加條款追償的條件。附加條款的命名各不相同,但根據附加條款、利率調整條款或追蹤條款(在不同司法管轄區中被稱為追蹤條款)投資的資本,可以更及時地收回審慎產生的投資和成本。這些追償至少每年在單一事項程序中提交和核實一次,因此無需考慮耗時更長、頻率更低的一般基準利率程序。

  • In some of our jurisdictions, including Virginia, rider recovery mechanisms utilize a forward-looking or projected test period and/or allows for a construction work in progress, all of which minimizes traditional regulatory lag that, in other cases, can prevent utilities from earning at their authorized return levels. Rider-eligible CapEx programs varies a little by state, but prominent examples for us include offshore wind, solar, energy storage, nuclear relicensing, electric transmission, strategic undergrounding, grid transformation, rural broadband and gas distribution, infrastructure, integrity and modernization spending.

    在我們部分管轄區(包括維吉尼亞州)中,附加條款追償機制採用前瞻性或預期的測試期,和/或允許在建工程,所有這些都最大限度地減少了傳統的監管滯後現象,而在其他情況下,這種滯後現象可能會阻礙公用事業公司達到其授權的收益水平。符合附加條款條件的資本支出項目因州而異,但我們認為突出的例子包括離岸風電、太陽能、儲能、核電許可再許可、電力輸送、戰略地下化、電網改造、農村寬頻和天然氣輸送、基礎設施建設、誠信建設和現代化建設支出。

  • On that theme, and turning to Slide 19, we illustrate how base investments and rider investments are expected to trend at Dominion Energy Virginia through the 5-year plan. You'll note that the Virginia base investment balance is growing at about 6% annually driven primarily by new customer connections and maintenance spending. By contrast, the rider investment balance in Virginia, which comprises half of DEV's investment base today, is expected to grow at nearly 20% annually on average.

    圍繞著這個主題,我們翻到第19張投影片,展示了道明尼恩能源維吉尼亞公司(DEV Virginia)在五年計畫中預計的基本投資和附加投資的趨勢。您會注意到,維吉尼亞州的基本投資餘額每年增長約6%,主要受新客戶連接和維護支出的推動。相較之下,維吉尼亞州的附加投資餘額(佔DEV目前投資基礎的一半)預計年均成長率接近20%。

  • Since the Virginia rider investment programs are reviewed and trued up annually, they are not included in the triennial review process, the first of which, of course, will commence next month. Based on these growth trends, the base investment balance as a percentage of total DEV declines from 37% to 27% by 2025. It also shrinks dramatically as a percentage of overall Dominion Energy.

    由於維吉尼亞州的附加投資計畫每年都會進行審查和調整,因此它們不包含在三年一次的審查程序中,而第一次審查程序當然將於下個月開始。基於這些成長趨勢,到2025年,基礎投資餘額佔DEV總額的比例將從37%下降到27%。其在Dominion Energy整體中的佔比也將大幅縮減。

  • On Slide 20, we refresh our outlook for sources and uses of cash. So on average, between '21 and '23, we expect to generate annual operating cash flow of around $6.6 billion, return about -- around $2.4 billion to our shareholders in the form of dividend and invest nearly $8 billion a year on growth and maintenance CapEx on behalf of our customers. Our financing plan assumes we issue around $400 million of equity annually through our existing DRIP and ATM programs with the residual financing needs satisfied by net fixed income issuance.

    在第20張幻燈片中,我們更新了對現金來源和用途的展望。因此,在2021年至2023年期間,我們預計平均每年將產生約66億美元的營運現金流,以股息形式向股東返還約24億美元,並每年為客戶投資近80億美元用於成長和維護資本支出。我們的融資計畫假設我們每年透過現有的直接投資計畫(DRIP)和自動售股計畫(ATM)發行約4億美元的股票,其餘融資需求則透過淨固定收益發行來滿足。

  • Again, and as shown on Slide 21, these are multiyear averages. To be clear, in 2021, we don't expect any issuance under our ATM program. This equity guidance is consistent with our prior guidance for the '21 through '24 period. We view this level of steady equity issuance under existing programs as prudent, EPS-accretive, and in the context of our very sizable growth capital spending program, appropriate to keep our consolidated credit metrics within the guidelines for a strong credit ratings category.

    再次強調,如幻燈片21所示,這些是多年平均值。需要明確的是,我們預計2021年ATM計畫下不會有任何發行。此股權指引與我們先前對2021年至2024年期間的指引一致。我們認為,在現有計劃下保持這種穩定的股權發行水平是審慎的,有利於每股收益增值,並且在我們規模龐大的增長資本支出計劃的背景下,也有利於將我們的綜合信用指標保持在強勁信用評級類別的指導範圍內。

  • To that point, as shown on Slide 22, our consolidated credit metrics have continued their steady improvement as has our pension plan's funded status. We're all very proud of these results. We continue to target high BBB range credit ratings for our parent company and single A range ratings for our regulated operating companies.

    截至目前,如投影片22所示,我們的綜合信用指標持續穩定改善,退休金計畫的資金到位情況也是如此。我們都對這些成果感到非常自豪。我們將繼續致力於母公司獲得BBB級高信用評級,並致力於為受監管的營運公司爭取A級評級。

  • Before I summarize my remarks, let me spend just a minute on O&M. As demonstrated by our 2020 results, we're focusing on driving O&M through improved processes, innovative use of technology and other best practice cost initiatives to keep normalized O&M flat through the forecast period. This reflects the successful continuation of our flat normalized O&M efforts we discussed in more detail at our last Investor Day.

    在總結發言之前,我想先花一點時間談談維運(O&M)。正如我們2020年的業績所表明的那樣,我們正致力於透過改進流程、創新技術應用和其他最佳實踐成本舉措來推動運維,以在整個預測期內保持正常化維運水平的平穩。這反映了我們在上一次投資者日上詳細討論過的、維持正常化維運水準的努力的成功延續。

  • So with that, I'll summarize. We reported fourth quarter and full year 2020 operating EPS, which were above the midpoint of our guidance, extending our track record to 5 years of meeting or exceeding the quarterly midpoint on a weather-normal basis. We initiated 2021 full year operating EPS guidance that represents a 10% annual increase midpoint to midpoint. We affirmed 6.5% operating EPS growth from '21 through '25. We introduced a $32 billion 5-year growth CapEx plan that drives an approximately 9% rate base growth. We expect highly disproportionate rider investment spending across our segment, and our balance sheet and credit profile remain in very good health.

    好了,我來總結一下。我們報告了2020年第四季和全年的營運每股收益,均高於我們預期的中點,這延續了我們五年來在天氣正常的情況下達到或超過季度中點的記錄。我們啟動了2021年全年營運每股盈餘指引,這意味著年增率將達到中點到中點的10%。我們確認從2021年到2025年,營運每股收益將成長6.5%。我們推出了一項320億美元的五年成長資本支出計劃,該計劃將推動約9%的費率基準成長。我們預計,我們整個部門的附加投資支出將高度不均衡,我們的資產負債表和信用狀況仍然非常健康。

  • With that, I'll turn it over to Bob.

    說完這些,我就把麥克風交給鮑伯。

  • Robert M. Blue - President, CEO & Director

    Robert M. Blue - President, CEO & Director

  • Thanks, Jim, and good morning, everyone. I'll begin on Slide 25, which provides an overview of the Virginia Clean Economy Act. The law mandates a renewable energy portfolio standard that, over the next 25 years, moves towards a zero-carbon future. In order to achieve the RPS milestones, the law calls on the state's utilities to add significant amounts of wind and solar power generation as well as battery storage, ramps up energy efficiency and demand side management programs, requires the use of Virginia-based renewable energy credits, mandates that Virginia join the Regional Greenhouse Gas Initiative and requires the retirement of substantial coal-fired generation by 2025 and all fossil-fired units by 2046, subject to reliability and energy security considerations.

    謝謝,吉姆,大家早安。我從第25張幻燈片開始,它概述了《維吉尼亞州清潔經濟法案》。該法案規定了再生能源組合標準,旨在未來25年內邁向零碳未來。為了實現再生能源配額制(RPS)的里程碑,該法案要求該州的公用事業公司大幅增加風能和太陽能發電量以及電池儲能,提高能源效率和需求側管理計劃,要求使用弗吉尼亞州的可再生能源信用額度,要求弗吉尼亞州加入區域溫室氣體倡議,並要求在2025年前淘汰大量燃煤能源發電,並在2046年前淘汰所有化石燃料可靠性和發電能力。

  • The largest single investment project come out of the passage of the VCEA is Dominion Energy's initial 2.6-gigawatt offshore wind deployment, as described on Slide 26. I'm not going to go through every line item on this slide but will highlight the following: first, the project, which is the largest of its kind in North America, is very much on track. This project will provide a boost to Virginia's growing green economy by creating hundreds of jobs, hundreds of millions of dollars of economic output and millions of dollars of tax revenue for the state and localities. It will also propel Virginia closer to achieving its goal to become a major hub for the burgeoning offshore wind value chain up and down the country's East Coast. Second, as was contemplated in the VCEA, we intend this investment to be 100% regulated and eligible for rider recovery. Finally, the VCEA provides very specific requirements on the presumption of prudency for investment in the project, as shown here, which we are confident that we will meet.

    VCEA通過後最大的單筆投資項目是Dominion Energy的初始2.6吉瓦離岸風電部署,如幻燈片26所示。我不會逐一介紹投影片中的項目,但會重點強調以下幾點:首先,該項目是北美同類項目中規模最大的,目前進展順利。該計畫將為維吉尼亞州和地方創造數百個就業機會、數億美元的經濟產出和數百萬美元的稅收,從而促進維吉尼亞州日益增長的綠色經濟。它還將推動維吉尼亞州更接近實現其目標,即成為美國東海岸蓬勃發展的離岸風電價值鏈的主要樞紐。其次,正如VCEA所設想的那樣,我們計劃對這項投資進行100%監管,並有資格獲得附加條款補償。最後,VCEA對專案投資的審慎性假設提出了非常具體的要求,如下表所示,我們有信心能夠滿足這些要求。

  • On Slide 27, we list the major project milestones. In December of last year, we submitted our construction and operations plan to BOEM. We're encouraged by the incremental funding appropriated to BOEM late last year with a specific direction to augment the agency's resources to process offshore wind permits as well as BOEM's recent recommencement of processing the Vineyard Wind application. As you likely know by now, we are the only owner in the United States to have completed an offshore wind BOEM permitting process successfully. Our 12-megawatt test project, which recently entered service, completed the BOEM permitting process in 2019, and we're applying lessons learned during that process to our present application.

    第27張幻燈片列出了專案的主要里程碑。去年12月,我們向BOEM提交了建設和營運計劃。去年年底,BOEM獲得了新增資金,具體用於增強其處理離岸風電許可的資源,BOEM最近也重新開始處理Vineyard Wind的申請,這讓我們備受鼓舞。您可能已經知道,我們是美國唯一成功完成BOEM離岸風電許可流程的業主。我們最近投入營運的12兆瓦測試項目已於2019年完成了BOEM許可流程,我們正在將這一過程中的經驗教訓運用到目前的申請中。

  • The other item I'll highlight is on the left-hand side of this slide. The lease is positioned in shallow water, outside of major maritime shipping lanes, away from any other offshore wind leaseholds and not in a region that supports a significant commercial fishing industry. We expect to receive final permits in mid-2023 and complete project construction around the end of 2026.

    我要重點介紹的另一項內容在這張投影片的左側。該租賃地位於淺水區,遠離主要海上航線,遠離任何其他離岸風電租賃地,並且不位於支持重要商業捕魚業的地區。我們預計在2023年中期獲得最終許可,並於2026年底左右完成工程建設。

  • The VCEA calls for another 2.6 gigawatts of offshore wind by 2036. While our near-term focus is on successfully executing on our initial deployment, we look forward to finding ways to support the state's additional offshore wind capacity goals. The VCEA provides that the cost of any offshore wind project will be borne by our customers only in proportion to our ownership of the project.

    《維多利亞州離岸風電法案》(VCEA) 要求在 2036 年新增 2.6 吉瓦的離岸風電裝置容量。雖然我們近期的重點是成功實施初期部署,但我們期待找到方法來支持該州新增離岸風電裝置容量的目標。 《維多利亞州離岸風電法案》規定,任何離岸風電專案的成本均由我們的客戶以我們對該專案的所有權比例承擔。

  • While offshore wind may be our largest single renewable energy project, the aggregate capacity of solar generation called for by the VCEA is over 3x larger. In accordance with the law, 65% of the target amount is to be utility-owned. This is not new ground for us or for the commission. To date, we've made 4 cost-of-service rider recovery filings for solar projects in Virginia. Three, representing around 400 megawatts have been approved, and the most recent filing is pending approval. We expect to make additional filings annually as we work toward the over 10 gigawatts of regulated solar capacity called for by the law.

    雖然離岸風電可能是我們最大的單一再生能源項目,但《維吉尼亞州風能法案》(VCEA) 要求的太陽能發電總容量是離岸風電的三倍多。根據法律規定,目標容量的 65% 將由公用事業公司擁有。這對我們或委員會來說都並非新鮮事。到目前為止,我們已經為維吉尼亞州的太陽能專案提交了四份服務成本附加條款補償申請。其中三份申請已獲批准,總容量約為 400 兆瓦,最近的申請正在等待批准。我們預計每年都會提交更多申請,以努力達到法律要求的超過 10 吉瓦的受監管太陽能容量。

  • Current solar technology requires around 10 acres for every megawatt of installed capacity. Rough math suggests, therefore, that the utility-owned target of around 10,000 megawatts will require around 100,000 acres of land. We've been hard at work to secure enough land to support our long-range goal. And I'm pleased to report that in less than a year, we've put 63,000 acres under option.

    目前的太陽能技術每裝置容量1兆瓦需要約10英畝土地。因此,粗略計算表明,實現公用事業公司自有的約10,000兆瓦的目標將需要約10萬英畝土地。我們一直在努力爭取足夠的土地來支持我們的長期目標。我很高興地告訴大家,在不到一年的時間裡,我們已經將6.3萬英畝土地納入了替代方案。

  • Turning to Slide 29. What started with an 8-megawatt facility in Georgia in 2013 has today become a portfolio of over 2.2 gigawatts, representing over $5 billion of investment. Our early focus was on the development of long-term contracted projects, mostly outside of Virginia, that allowed us to develop the expertise and competency to undertake the substantial regulated solar build-out in Virginia that I just described. Going forward, you can see that our emphasis shifts, and a very significant majority of our solar capacity investment will take place under regulated cost-of-service recovery mechanisms in Virginia.

    翻到第29張幻燈片。 2013年,我們在喬治亞州啟動了一座8兆瓦的太陽能發電廠,如今已發展成為一個超過2.2吉瓦的投資組合,投資額超過50億美元。我們早期的重點是開發長期合約項目,主要在弗吉尼亞州以外,這使我們能夠積累專業知識和能力,以承接我剛才提到的弗吉尼亞州大規模受監管的太陽能項目建設。展望未來,您可以看到我們的重點發生了變化,我們絕大多數的太陽能發電投資將在維吉尼亞州受監管的服務成本回收機制下進行。

  • Growth in long-term contracted solar is limited and driven by large customer requests for bilateral, 100% renewable power supply. As increasing intermittent generation sources proliferate in our system, energy storage will be critical to maintaining reliable service. We observed, with keen interest, the recent example of the negative consequences that occur for customers when rapid changes in intermittent generation are not accommodated with sufficient storage and/or quick-start gas-fired generation. Hence, the VCEA prudently calls for the development of nearly 3 gigawatts of energy storage by 2036, 65% of which is to be utility-owned and rider-eligible.

    長期合約太陽能的成長有限,其驅動力來自大量客戶對雙邊、100%再生能源供電的需求。隨著我們系統中間歇性電源的激增,儲能對於維持可靠的服務至關重要。我們密切關注著近期的例子,當間歇性電源的快速變化無法透過充足的儲能和/或快速啟動的燃氣發電來適應時,會給客戶帶來負面影響。因此,VCEA 謹慎地呼籲到 2036 年開發近 3 千兆瓦的儲能係統,其中 65% 應由公用事業公司擁有並可供用戶使用。

  • Admittedly, we're starting small when it comes to developing technologies in this area, 16 megawatts of pilot projects across 3 different sites and 3 different use case scenarios, as shown on the right side of Slide 30. But starting small has its advantages as we saw in both our offshore wind and solar development strategies. We're rapidly developing expertise that will ensure we're providing the maximum value to customers as we fulfill the targets of the VCEA.

    誠然,我們在該領域的技術開發上起步較小,僅在3個不同地點、3個不同用例場景下開展了16兆瓦的試點項目,如第30張幻燈片右側所示。但從小處著手也有其優勢,正如我們在離岸風電和太陽能發展策略中所見。我們正在快速累積專業知識,以確保在實現VCEA目標的同時,為客戶提供最大價值。

  • In our estimation, the success of greenhouse gas emission reduction targets requires the ongoing viability of existing nuclear facilities. That's why we filed for 20-year license extensions for our 4 Virginia-regulated units. Today, these facilities account for 30% of Virginia's total electric output and around 90% of Virginia's zero-carbon electricity. Based on PJM's carbon intensity rate, the ongoing operation of these plants will effectively avoid CO2 emissions of 16 million tons per year.

    我們估計,溫室氣體減量目標的成功需要現有核設施的持續運作。因此,我們為維吉尼亞州監管的四座核電廠申請了20年的許可證延期。目前,這些核電廠佔維吉尼亞州總發電量的30%,約佔維吉尼亞州零碳電力的90%。根據PJM的碳強度率,這些核電廠的持續運作將有效避免每年1,600萬噸的二氧化碳排放。

  • Key milestones for the relicensing process are shown on Slide 31. We expect to submit for rider cost recovery approval in the second half of this year. Our near-term focus is on the Virginia unit. But under the appropriate circumstances, life extensions over the long term at our other 3 units may be advisable. Successful nuclear life extension is a win for customers and the environment.

    重新許可流程的關鍵里程碑顯示在幻燈片31上。我們預計在今年下半年提交附加成本回收核准。我們近期的重點是維吉尼亞機組。但在適當的情況下,我們建議對其他三台機組進行長期壽命延長。成功的核電壽命延長對客戶和環境都是雙贏的。

  • The transition to a clean energy future means reduced reliance on coal-fired generation. As Tom showed, in 2005, more than half our company's power production was from coal-fired generation. By 2035, we project that to be closer to 5%, perhaps lower, if the South Carolina Commission prefers an accelerated decarbonization plan as part of our IRP refiling.

    向清潔能源未來轉型意味著減少對燃煤發電的依賴。正如湯姆所展示的,2005年,我們公司超過一半的電力來自燃煤發電。到2035年,我們預計這一比例將接近5%,甚至更低,前提是南卡羅來納州委員會希望在我們IRP重新申報中納入加速脫碳計畫。

  • From an investment-based perspective, which is a rough approximation of earnings contribution, you can see, on Slide 32, the diminished role coal-fired generation plays in our financial performance driven by facility retirements and non-coal investment. We're mindful that this shift has the potential to be disruptive to employees and communities and are being purposeful in our efforts to ameliorate any such negative consequences. You'll also note that zero-carbon generation grows significantly such that, by 2025, over 60% of our investment base will consist of electric wires and zero-carbon generation.

    從投資角度來看,也就是對獲利貢獻的粗略估計,您可以在第32張投影片上看到,由於設施退役和非煤炭投資,燃煤發電在我們財務表現中所佔的比重正在下降。我們意識到,這種轉變可能會對員工和社區造成乾擾,因此我們正在有意識地努力減輕任何此類負面影響。您還會注意到,零碳發電正在顯著成長,到2025年,我們超過60%的投資基礎將由電線和零碳發電構成。

  • Turning to Slide 33. Let me address customer rates with a focus on Virginia. First, between 2008 and 2020, our typical residential customer rate increased, on average, by less than 1% per year, which is much lower than average annual inflation over that period of closer to 2%. Second, based on EIA data, our typical customer rate is 13% lower than the national average and 36% lower than other states that, like Virginia, have joined RGGI. And third, going forward, we see typical residential rates increasing by a compound annual growth rate of around 2.9% through 2030, which is a comprehensive estimate and includes, among other factors, the impact of the decarbonization investment programs we've discussed today. If we move the starting point back to 2008, that rate of increase falls to 2.1%, which is lower than projected inflation for 2021. It's incumbent upon us to deliver energy that is safe, reliable, increasingly sustainable and affordable.

    翻到第 33 張投影片。讓我來談談客戶費率,並專注於維吉尼亞州。首先,在 2008 年至 2020 年期間,我們的典型住宅客戶費率平均每年增長不到 1%,遠低於同期接近 2% 的年平均通貨膨脹率。其次,根據 EIA 數據,我們的典型客戶費率比全國平均低 13%,比維吉尼亞州等加入 RGGI 的其他州低 36%。第三,展望未來,我們預計到 2030 年,典型住宅費率的複合年增長率約為 2.9%,這是一個綜合估計,其中包括我們今天討論的脫碳投資計劃的影響等因素。如果我們將起點回溯到 2008 年,這一成長率將降至 2.1%,低於 2021 年的預期通貨膨脹率。我們有責任提供安全、可靠、日益永續且價格合理的能源。

  • Now on Slide 34, let me address the upcoming triennial review proceeding. Note, we've developed detailed slides in the appendix that we believe will be helpful to you on this topic. First, the triennial review process will commence next month and conclude late this year. Second, this triennial review will cover 4 years of performance from 2017 through 2020 and compares our earned return to our allowed return of 9.9%, inclusive of a 70 basis point power. Third, and as Jim pointed out, the review applies only to the Virginia-based portion of our rate base. Rider investments are outside the scope of the proceeding. And finally, to the extent the commission concludes that available revenues, inclusive of adjustments for impairments, weather and other factors, are greater than customer credit reinvestments, it may order a refund as well as a forward-looking revenue reduction of up to $50 million.

    現在,請看第34張投影片,讓我來談談即將進行的三年期審查程序。請注意,我們在附錄中製作了詳細的幻燈片,並相信對您了解此主題會有所幫助。首先,三年期審查程序將於下個月開始,並於今年底結束。其次,本次三年期審查將涵蓋2017年至2020年的四年業績,並將我們的實際收益率與9.9%的允許收益率進行比較,其中包括70個基點的利率。第三,正如Jim指出的那樣,此次審查僅適用於我們費率基數中弗吉尼亞州的部分。附加險投資不在本程序的範圍內。最後,如果委員會認定可用收入(包括減損、天氣和其他因素的調整)高於客戶信貸再投資,則委員會可能會要求退款,並減少最高5,000萬美元的前瞻性收入。

  • So let me point out just 2 factors that we know will be part of the first review process. First, we've invested nearly $300 million in the on-time and on-budget completion of the 12-megawatt offshore wind test project. We've indicated we will not seek a revenue increase from customers associated with this project. Rather, we will apply that investment, as needed, as a customer credit reinvestment offset. Second, we've provided over $125 million of arrears relief in Virginia to assist customers, many of whom have faced financial hardship as a result of COVID.

    因此,我想指出兩個我們知道將納入首次審查流程的因素。首先,我們已投資近3億美元,以確保按時按預算完成12兆瓦離岸風電測試項目。我們已表示,我們不會尋求與該項目相關的客戶增加收入。相反,我們將根據需要將這筆投資用作客戶信貸再投資抵扣。其次,我們已在維吉尼亞州提供了超過1.25億美元的欠款減免,以幫助客戶,其中許多客戶因新冠疫情而面臨財務困境。

  • Naturally, we're focused on the triennial review filing next month, but we also get questions from time to time regarding the second triennial review, which is expected to conclude in almost 4 years.

    當然,我們的重點是下個月提交的三年期審查,但我們也會不時收到有關第二次三年期審查的問題,預計第二次審查將在近四年後結束。

  • A few observations there, which are shown on Slide 35. First, we're in the very early days, 43 days, I think, of that review period. So obviously, we have quite a ways to go before being in a position to file the precise regulatory inputs for that proceeding. What we do know, however, is that the structure of the review will be similar to T1. This includes the ability, for instance, to use customer credit reinvestment offsets, which allow us to invest in projects for the benefit of customers.

    投影片 35 展示了一些觀察結果。首先,我們目前處於審查期的早期階段,我認為是 43 天。因此,顯然,我們還有很長的路要走,才能為該程序提交精確的監管意見。不過,我們確實知道的是,審查的結構將與 T1 類似。例如,這包括使用客戶信用再投資抵銷的能力,這使我們能夠投資於有利於客戶的專案。

  • Second, as Jim described well, the robust growth of our asset base at DEV is concentrated around rider-recoverable investments that are outside the scope of triennial available earnings reviews. Combined with growth at our other state-regulated operating segments, the proportion of the company's earnings and cash flows, which are subject to triennial earnings tests, will naturally diminish over the forecast and beyond.

    其次,如同Jim所述,DEV資產基礎的強勁成長主要集中在可收回附加條款投資上,這些投資不在三年期可用獲利評估的範圍內。加上我們其他受州監管營運部門的成長,公司獲利和現金流中需要進行三年期獲利測試的部分,在預測期內及之後自然會減少。

  • Third, the very nature of our business as a state-regulated utility company is working with regulators to deliver beneficial outcomes for both customers and investors. It's something we've been doing for many years. We expect to continue to apply the experience we've gained to upcoming rate proceedings of all varieties, including the triennial reviews. We firmly believe that there are a number of paths that converge on a single objective: serving customers, employees, communities, the environment and investors.

    第三,作為一家受州政府監管的公用事業公司,我們業務的本質是與監管機構合作,為客戶和投資者帶來雙贏的結果。多年來,我們一直在做這件事。我們期望繼續將累積的經驗應用於各種即將到來的費率程序,包括三年一次的審核。我們堅信,有許多途徑可以匯聚到一個目標:服務客戶、員工、社區、環境和投資者。

  • On top of that, we're incredibly excited about what Dominion Energy is planning to accomplish well beyond the next 2 triennial reviews. Specifically, over the next 15 years, the investment of upwards of $70 billion of green capital, nearly all of which will grow earnings under regulated rider mechanisms and significantly reduce emissions while maintaining competitive customer rates. We don't believe any other company in the United States offers the duration, visibility and scope of regulated decarbonization growth that Dominion Energy now offers.

    除此之外,我們對道明尼恩能源計畫在未來兩次三年評估後所取得的成就感到無比興奮。具體來說,未來15年,該公司將投資超過700億美元的綠色資本,幾乎全部將在受監管的附加條款機制下增加收益,並在保持具有競爭力的客戶費率的同時顯著減少排放。我們相信,在美國,沒有其他公司能夠像道明尼恩能源一樣,在受監管的脫碳成長方面提供如此持久、透明和廣泛的支援。

  • Shifting gears a little on Slide 36, we summarize the status of the pending South Carolina general rate case proceeding, which is presently in a 6-month pause which we supported. As part of the pause, the commission ordered the parties to report, on a monthly basis, on their progress toward reaching a settlement. We can't report to you this morning on the status of current negotiations, obviously, but we look forward to continuing to engage with parties to the case in hopes of finding a suitable resolution to bring before the commission for approval.

    稍微轉換一下投影片36,我們總結了南卡羅來納州普通稅率案件的待審程序狀態。該案件目前暫停審理6個月,我們對此表示支持。作為暫停程序的一部分,委員會要求各方每月報告達成和解的進展。當然,我們今天早上無法向大家報告目前談判的進展,但我們期待繼續與案件各方溝通,希望找到合適的解決方案,提交給委員會批准。

  • In the meantime, our commitment to customers is unwavering. Over the last approximately 15 years, we've reduced average annual customer outage minutes or SAIDI by 40%. Investments made in prior periods, including the years covered by our recent rate case filing, are critical to system reliability and the continuation of this trend to the benefit of our customers. We're committed to meeting 100% of our merger commitments, establishing trust with our customers and communities and working toward an increasingly sustainable future for South Carolinians.

    同時,我們對客戶的承諾始終堅定不移。在過去約15年中,我們將年平均客戶停電分鐘數(SAIDI)減少了40%。先前(包括我們最近提交的費率案例所涉及的年份)所做的投資,對於系統可靠性以及延續這一趨勢並造福客戶至關重要。我們致力於100%履行合併承諾,與客戶和社區建立信任,並致力於為南卡羅來納州人民創造更永續的未來。

  • In that regard, let me provide an update on our integrated resource plan. Briefly, the commission asked us to refile the plan and consider, among other changes, accelerated renewable energy deployment and increased sensitivities to potential carbon pricing. In the table on the right-hand side, you can see how one of the cases we filed with our original IRP, called Plan 8, is indicative of the potential for accelerated decarbonization at only slightly higher customer cost as compared to the prior base plan. Plan 8 would retire 1,300 megawatts of coal-fired generation in 2028 and add 300 megawatts of storage and 700 megawatts of new solar, which would result in a nearly 60% reduction in CO2 emissions by 2030 and only cost approximately 3% more than the base plan. We look forward to engaging with all stakeholders on this planning process.

    就此,請容許我介紹一下我們的綜合資源計畫的最新情況。簡而言之,委員會要求我們重新提交該計劃,並考慮加快再生能源部署和提高對潛在碳定價的敏感度等變化。在右側的表格中,您可以看到我們隨原始綜合資源計劃 (IRP) 提交的案例之一,即“計劃 8”,它表明有可能加速脫碳,而客戶成本僅略高於先前的基礎計劃。 「計畫 8」將在 2028 年淘汰 1,300 兆瓦的燃煤發電,並增加 300 兆瓦的儲能和 700 兆瓦的太陽能發電,這將使二氧化碳排放量到 2030 年減少近 60%,而成本僅比基礎計畫高出約 3%。我們期待與所有利害關係人就這項規劃流程進行溝通。

  • On Slide 38, we provide key elements of our gas distribution segment growth and sustainability strategy. Our utilities operate in some of the fastest-growing areas of the country with annual customer growth rates approaching 3% in 2 of our 3 largest markets. These customers simply prefer natural gas service for cooking, heating and other residential, commercial and industrial applications.

    第38張投影片展示了我們天然氣分銷業務成長和永續發展策略的關鍵要素。我們的公用事業公司在美國一些成長最快的地區運營,在我們最大的三個市場中的兩個市場,年客戶成長率接近3%。這些客戶喜歡使用天然氣進行烹飪、取暖以及其他住宅、商業和工業用途。

  • We're also fortunate to operate in jurisdictions where regulation prioritizes safety and reliability. Decoupling mechanisms promote the implementation of increased efficiency measures, which help to reduce customer bills. And infrastructure modernization and integrity trackers allow us to make critical investments and upgrades that both reduce emissions and raise the bar on safe and reliable service.

    我們也非常榮幸能夠在監管優先考慮安全性和可靠性的司法管轄區運作。脫鉤機制促進了增效措施的實施,從而有助於降低客戶帳單。基礎設施現代化和完整性追蹤系統使我們能夠進行關鍵的投資和升級,既能減少排放,又能提高安全可靠服務的標準。

  • When it comes to natural gas distribution, location matters. We know that for natural gas to be relevant in the future, we must continue to focus on increasing the sustainability of our service. We've adopted an ambitious Scope 1 emission targets, but that isn't enough. We're now looking at Scope 3 emissions in cutting-edge ways. We formalized our support for federal methane regulation, and we're working towards procurement practices that encourage enhanced disclosures by upstream counterparties on their emissions and methane-reduction programs.

    就天然氣配送而言,地理位置至關重要。我們深知,要讓天然氣在未來保持重要地位,我們必須持續關注提升服務的可持續性。我們已經制定了雄心勃勃的範圍一排放目標,但這還不夠。我們目前正在以前沿的方式審視範圍三排放。我們正式支持聯邦甲烷監管,並致力於制定採購實踐,鼓勵上游交易對手加強揭露其排放和甲烷減排計畫。

  • Further, we're considering a preference for suppliers and shippers who adopt a net zero commitment. For downstream emissions, we plan to increase our annual spend on energy efficiency by 45% over the next 5 years and provide our customers with access to a carbon calculator and carbon offsets. We're also developing plans which will require collaboration with policymakers and regulators to increase access to RNG for our customers, and ultimately, to initiate mandatory RNG blend levels that would act to offset our customers' carbon footprint.

    此外,我們正在考慮優先考慮那些做出淨零承諾的供應商和托運人。對於下游排放,我們計劃在未來5年內將年度能源效率支出提高45%,並為客戶提供碳排放計算器和碳補償。我們也正在製定計劃,這些計劃需要與政策制定者和監管機構合作,以增加客戶對再生天然氣(RNG)的獲取,並最終啟動強制性的可再生天然氣混合水平,以抵消客戶的碳足跡。

  • And finally, we're pursuing innovative hydrogen use cases, which we discuss in more detail in the appendix. This includes our participation as a founding member of the Low-Carbon Resources Initiative that just surpassed $100 million of funding from over 30 industry members.

    最後,我們正在探索創新的氫能應用案例,我們將在附錄中詳細討論。其中包括我們作為創始成員參與低碳資源倡議,該倡議剛剛獲得來自30多個行業成員的超過1億美元的資助。

  • I'll conclude my remarks by addressing several important topics we took in 2020 that enhanced our industry-leading ESG profile. In February, we announced the goal of net zero-carbon and methane emissions by 2050. Over the summer, as the nation began to reexamine important points around race, we built upon our existing legacy of social equity by committing $40 million to social justice and equity causes. In October, we published our latest Sustainability and Corporate Responsibility Report, which conforms with the major best-in-class reporting standards, including the Global Reporting Initiative, the Sustainability Accounting Standards Board and the UN Sustainable Development Goals framework.

    最後,我想談談我們在2020年探討的幾個重要議題,這些議題提升了我們業界領先的ESG形象。今年2月,我們宣布了2050年實現淨零碳排放和甲烷排放的目標。今年夏天,隨著全國人民開始重新審視種族議題上的重要議題,我們在現有的社會公平傳統基礎上,承諾投入4000萬美元給社會正義和公平事業。 10月,我們發布了最新的《永續發展與企業責任報告》,該報告符合主要的一流報告準則,包括全球報告倡議組織、永續發展會計準則委員會和聯合國永續發展目標框架。

  • Also in October, we established a new commitment to increase our total workforce diversity by 1% each year. During 2020, we got up to a strong start with half of our company's new hires being diverse. And in November, we announced our formal support for the Task Force on Climate-related Financial Disclosures, or TCFD, making us 1 of only 6 utilities to adopt such support.

    同樣在十月,我們制定了一項新承諾,每年將員工多元化程度提高1%。 2020年,我們取得了良好的開端,公司一半的新員工都是多元化的。 11月,我們宣布正式支援氣候相關財務資訊揭露工作小組 (TCFD),成為僅有的六家採用此類支援的公用事業公司之一。

  • Looking ahead on Slide 40, we have more to do. In January, as I mentioned, we publicly formalized our support for federal methane regulations. During the second quarter of this year, we'll publish an updated climate report that will reflect TCFD-recommended methodologies. And throughout 2021, we'll advance our efforts to address Scope 3 emissions, firstly, in our gas distribution businesses, as I previously described.

    展望第40張投影片,我們還有很多工作要做。正如我之前提到的,今年1月,我們公開正式宣布支持聯邦甲烷法規。今年第二季度,我們將發布一份更新的氣候報告,其中將反映TCFD推薦的方法論。正如我之前所述,在2021年全年,我們將進一步努力解決範圍3排放問題,首先是天然氣分銷業務。

  • These and other ESG-oriented efforts have been recognized by leading third-party assessment services, as shown on Slide 41. By each measure, our performance exceeds the sector average. We've been recognized as part of the leadership band by CDP for our climate and water disclosure, as trendsetters for the third consecutive year by the CPA-Zicklin report on political accountability and transparency and as part of the Just 100 for the second consecutive year by JUST Capital for our actions to promote increased equity.

    如投影片41所示,這些以及其他以ESG為導向的努力已獲得領先的第三方評估機構的認可。從各項指標來看,我們的表現均高於業界平均。我們憑藉在氣候和水資源方面的揭露,被CDP評為領導者;我們連續第三年被CPA-Zicklin政治問責和透明度報告評為潮流引領者;我們連續第二年被JUST Capital評為Just 100強企業之一,以表彰我們為促進公平所做的努力。

  • I'll conclude the call on Slide 42, which you saw in Tom's remarks as well. We are taking steps today to chart a course that over the next decades will put our company on a remarkable journey to becoming the most sustainable energy company in America. Our future is bright, and we're focused on executing this plan for the benefit of our employees, customers and communities, the environment and our investors.

    我將用第42張投影片來結束本次電話會議,你們在湯姆的演講中也看到了這張投影片。今天,我們正在採取措施,規劃未來幾十年的發展方向,使公司踏上成為美國最具永續性能源公司的非凡旅程。我們的未來是光明的,我們專注於執行這項計劃,造福我們的員工、客戶、社區、環境以及投資者。

  • With that, we're ready to take questions.

    現在,我們準備好回答問題了。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • (Operator Instructions) Our first question comes from Steve Fleishman with Wolfe Research.

    (操作員指示)我們的第一個問題來自 Wolfe Research 的 Steve Fleishman。

  • Steven Isaac Fleishman - MD & Senior Analyst

    Steven Isaac Fleishman - MD & Senior Analyst

  • So just first question on the -- your growth rate now goes out to 2025, which would encompass, I guess, the 2024 triennial outcome in it. Can you talk a little bit about how you're kind of including that in your assumptions? What are you assuming for that?

    所以第一個問題——你們現在的成長率是到2025年,我想這應該包含了2024年的三年期結果。你能不能稍微談談你們是如何將其納入假設的?你們對此做了哪些假設?

  • Robert M. Blue - President, CEO & Director

    Robert M. Blue - President, CEO & Director

  • Yes. Thanks, Steve. Appreciate the question. We're -- as I mentioned earlier, we're only 43 days into a 3-year period that's going to be reviewed, and we don't even file the case for more than 3 years. So not surprisingly, lots of details to come.

    是的。謝謝,史蒂夫。感謝你的提問。正如我之前提到的,我們距離3年的審查期才過了43天,而且我們提交案件的時間甚至都超過了3年。所以不出所料,接下來會有很多細節要揭露。

  • I do think it's important, though, when we look at developing a long-term growth rate, we look at a variety of planning scenarios. We don't assume a single outcome for the 2024 triennial or any other major planning assumption that far out in our plan.

    不過,我認為,當我們著眼於制定長期成長率時,請務必考慮多種規劃情境。我們不會為2024年的三年目標設定單一結果,也不會在計畫中設定任何其他重大規劃假設。

  • I will say one theme that is certainly assumed in all of our forecasted outcomes. 2024 or any other years that Virginia regulation continues to be constructive, just the way it's worked over the years, which has provided our customers with solid reliability rates more than 10% below the national average and a greener and greener generation portfolio.

    我想說一個主題,這個主題在我們所有的預測結果中肯定都是假設的。 2024 年或任何其他年份,維吉尼亞州的監管將繼續具有建設性,就像它多年來的運作方式一樣,這為我們的客戶提供了比全國平均水平低 10% 以上的穩定可靠性率和越來越環保的發電組合。

  • And then I think it's also important to remember, as Jim and I talked about earlier, that a portion of our base rates that -- the portion of our earnings that come from base rates in Virginia decline as we go through time, and riders and other mechanisms outside Virginia grow in importance. Our growth between now and the '24 triennial and then after the '24 triennial is driven by rider investments that are outside the '24 triennial or any other triennial proceeding.

    然後,我認為同樣重要的是要記住,正如我和吉姆之前談到的,隨著時間的推移,我們來自弗吉尼亞州基本費率的部分收入會下降,而弗吉尼亞州以外的附加條款和其他機制的重要性則會上升。從現在到2024年三年期,以及2024年三年期之後,我們的成長都來自於2024年三年期或任何其他三年期程序之外的附加條款投資。

  • Steven Isaac Fleishman - MD & Senior Analyst

    Steven Isaac Fleishman - MD & Senior Analyst

  • Okay. So is the punchline then that you kind of feel like you've got ability to deal with a variety of outcomes for that or -- in the scheme of things or -- and that's kind of encompassed in there in your assumptions?

    好的。那麼,關鍵在於,你覺得自己有能力應付各種結果,或者說,從整體來說,這些結果是否包含在你的假設中?

  • Robert M. Blue - President, CEO & Director

    Robert M. Blue - President, CEO & Director

  • Yes. This is what we do. It's what we've done over the years is we work with regulators, policymakers on constructive outcomes for customers and the health of the utility. And we fully expect that we'll be able to continue that going forward.

    是的。這就是我們的工作。多年來,我們一直致力於與監管機構和政策制定者合作,為客戶和公用事業的健康發展創造建設性成果。我們完全相信未來能夠繼續保持這種勢頭。

  • Steven Isaac Fleishman - MD & Senior Analyst

    Steven Isaac Fleishman - MD & Senior Analyst

  • Okay. And then one other question related to that is I did notice that it does seem like the base component of the rate base in Virginia and the percentages seemed lower than they have been in some of your other recent disclosures. Could you just explain maybe some of the changes there, I guess, maybe Jim?

    好的。還有一個與此相關的問題是,我確實注意到維吉尼亞州的稅率基數部分似乎比您最近披露的其他數據要低。您能否解釋一下那裡的一些變化,吉姆?

  • James R. Chapman - Executive VP, CFO & Treasurer

    James R. Chapman - Executive VP, CFO & Treasurer

  • Steve, yes. Let me take that, and I'm not sure if everyone has the full deck in front of them. But for future references, it's set out on Page 60 in the appendix.

    史蒂夫,是的。我來接手吧,我不確定大家是否都了解了全部內容。不過,為了方便以後參考,附錄第60頁有詳細說明。

  • But you're right. The total rate base in Virginia has not changed, other than the passage of time and the completion of the year. But what we did do is we refined the calculation of the elements of total rate base. We have been showing the schedule since like 2019 when we started this, I guess, our last Investor Day, where we, at that time, the triennial was very far away. We were trying to make it simple, so we lumped some things together. And now we've refined that. And the refinement relates to about $4 billion of rate base that, previously, we had categorized as Virginia-based and other. And the $4 billion is really the other. And we've now reallocated that to other categories.

    但您說得對。除了時間的推移和年度的結束之外,維吉尼亞州的總利率基數沒有變化。但我們所做的是改進了總利率基數各要素的計算。我們從2019年左右開始展示這個時間表,我想那是我們上一次投資者日,當時距離三年一度的投資者日還很遙遠。為了簡化流程,我們把一些要素合併在一起。現在我們已經改進了。改進後的利率基數與大約40億美元的利率基數有關,之前我們將其歸類為維吉尼亞州的利率基數和其他利率基數。這40億美元其實是其他利率基數。現在我們已將其重新分配給其他類別。

  • So what's in the other? Those are contracts where we serve various entities in the state, municipalities, the state of Virginia itself, the federal government, entities like that, where the contracts reflect different economic construct. Some of them are just sort of negotiated. Those are in the other category in our new -- I don't know, new slide. And others track more some of the riders, whether it's a transmission rider or legacy A6 riders. So we've reallocated, to be more precise. Now Virginia-based is not Virginia-based and other. It's just Virginia-based, and it brings down that number to about $9 billion.

    那麼其他部分是什麼呢?這些合約是我們服務於維吉尼亞州內各個實體、市政當局、維吉尼亞州本身、聯邦政府等機構的合同,這些合約反映了不同的經濟結構。有些合約只是經過協商的。這些合約屬於我們新發布的——我不知道,是新幻燈片——中的其他類別。其他合約則更追蹤某些附加條款,無論是變速箱附加條款還是傳統A6附加條款。所以更準確地說,我們進行了重新分配。現在「維吉尼亞州」的合約不再是「維吉尼亞州和其他」的合同,而只是「維吉尼亞州」的合同,這使得這個數字降至約90億美元。

  • So I think that's helpful to folks as they do math and sensitivities to have that more refined division on the various buckets of our total Virginia rate base.

    因此,我認為這對人們進行數學和敏感性分析很有幫助,可以對維吉尼亞州總體利率基數的各個部分進行更精細的劃分。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Our next question comes from Dan Ford with UBS.

    我們的下一個問題來自瑞銀的丹福特。

  • Daniel Frederick Ford - MD, Head of North America Utilities Equity Research & US Research Analyst of Utilities

    Daniel Frederick Ford - MD, Head of North America Utilities Equity Research & US Research Analyst of Utilities

  • So this question is for you, Bob. So the Virginia legislature has several live utility and energy economy-related bills still floating around, and Governor Northam's asked for a special session. Can you put all the noise that this creates for investors into perspective for us?

    所以這個問題是問你的,鮑伯。維吉尼亞州立法機構目前仍有幾項與公用事業和能源經濟相關的法案懸而未決,而諾瑟姆州長也要求召開特別會議。你能為我們分析一下這會為投資人帶來哪些影響嗎?

  • Robert M. Blue - President, CEO & Director

    Robert M. Blue - President, CEO & Director

  • Yes, sure. I don't think I can remember a fourth quarter call we've done where we didn't get a question on the Virginia General Assembly. I guess that's a function of the timing of our fourth quarter call and the session, so I'm glad you asked us. We would have been disappointed if we didn't get one this year.

    是的,當然。我記得在我們第四季的電話會議中,從來沒有一次沒有收到關於維吉尼亞州議會的問題。我想這可能是由於我們第四季度電話會議和會議的時間安排造成的,所以很高興您問了我們。如果今年沒有收到,我們會很失望。

  • It's been now, I guess, more than 15 years since I worked in the governor's office in Virginia, but there are a few things about the legislative process that I think are probably still true. The first one, the legislature doesn't follow a script. You make a mistake or you make predictions with certainty about the outcome of legislation at your peril, and I think that is still true.

    算起來,我擔任維吉尼亞州州長辦公室工作已經15年多了,但我認為立法程序中的一些事情可能仍然適用。首先,立法機構不照劇本行事。如果你犯了錯誤,或者對立法結果做出了肯定的預測,那你就要承擔風險,我認為這仍然適用。

  • The second is that bill for it to become law have to clear a number of hurdles. It's not just one House or the other. It's both Houses, and it's committees of both Houses. And an example of that from this year's session would be the one bill introduced in the Senate that related to our regulatory model was defeated in committee on a pretty strong bipartisan vote.

    第二,法案要成為法律,必須克服許多障礙。這不僅是一院或另一院的問題,而是兩院以及兩院委員會的問題。今年會議的一個例子就是,參議院提出的一項與我們的監管模式相關的法案,在委員會中以相當強的兩黨投票否決了。

  • And then the last thing that is still true about the legislature in Virginia is it moves quickly, so I don't think we're going to have to wait a long time. This year, the timing has been a little bit different, as you mentioned. The session went -- it's constitutionally mandated 30 days, and then the governor called a special session, but the process is still moving pretty quickly. And so I think those bills that you're referring to will be resolved relatively soon because that's the way the Virginia General Assembly moves. We'll keep an eye on them, but I think it's important to remember that they've got hurdles they would still have to clear before they could become law.

    最後一點,維吉尼亞州立法機構的運作仍然非常迅速,所以我認為我們不必等待太久。正如您所說,今年的進程略有不同。會議——憲法規定為30天——然後州長召開特別會議,但整個進程仍然進展得相當快。所以我認為您提到的那些法案將很快得到解決,因為弗吉尼亞州議會就是這樣運作的。我們會密切關注這些法案,但我認為重要的是要記住,它們在成為法律之前仍需克服一些障礙。

  • Daniel Frederick Ford - MD, Head of North America Utilities Equity Research & US Research Analyst of Utilities

    Daniel Frederick Ford - MD, Head of North America Utilities Equity Research & US Research Analyst of Utilities

  • Okay. And I guess one also for Jim. So Jim, thanks for all the detail on the CapEx, going forward, as well as what's rider-eligible versus not. Can you talk a little bit about the impact that the CapEx mix and the rider-eligible projects will have on cash flow conversion as we go through the next 5 years?

    好的。我想還有一件事要問Jim。 Jim,謝謝你詳細介紹了未來的資本支出,以及哪些項目符合附加條款,哪些不符合。能不能談談資本支出組合和符合附加條款的項目在未來五年對現金流轉換的影響?

  • James R. Chapman - Executive VP, CFO & Treasurer

    James R. Chapman - Executive VP, CFO & Treasurer

  • Yes. Thanks, Dan. Let me do that. So as I mentioned, almost -- well, over 70%, almost 3/4 of our capital spending in this 5-year plan is in rider format in Virginia and elsewhere. So what that means is, as we invest that capital, there's no regulatory lag. There is a proportional increase in operating cash flow from that investment.

    是的。謝謝,丹。我來解釋一下。正如我所提到的,我們這個五年計畫中幾乎——嗯,超過70%,幾乎四分之三的資本支出是以附加條款的形式在維吉尼亞州和其他地區進行的。這意味著,當我們投資這些資本時,不會出現監管落後。這項投資帶來的營運現金流將會成比例地增加。

  • So that's quite an assistance in our plan for the sources and uses of cash given the lack of regulatory lag and kind of the proportional advancement of our rider spend and our rider rate base growth and also our operating cash flow. We think it's quite a nifty feature of the structure.

    因此,考慮到監管方面沒有出現滯後,以及我們的乘客支出、乘客費率基數以及營運現金流都實現了一定比例的增長,這對我們制定現金來源和使用計劃有很大幫助。我們認為這是該架構的一個巧妙之處。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Our next question comes from Shar Pourreza with Guggenheim Partners.

    下一個問題來自古根漢合夥公司的 Shar Pourreza。

  • Shahriar Pourreza - MD and Head of North American Power

    Shahriar Pourreza - MD and Head of North American Power

  • Just a quick housekeeping, and then I have a quick follow-up. Just maybe starting with the '21 guidance. I mean, obviously, you've highlighted an expectation for 10% or better growth off that 2020 base, but the bottom end sort of implies about 6% year-over-year growth. There's a lot of visibility with the plans, so just trying to get a sense on any scenarios outside of weather that could put you at that lower end.

    我先簡單回顧一下,然後快速跟進。或許先從21年的指引開始。我的意思是,顯然您強調了在2020年基礎上實現10%或更高的成長預期,但最低限度的成長率大概是6%左右。這些計劃的可預見性很高,所以除了天氣因素之外,您還需要了解其他可能讓您處於最低限度增長的情景。

  • And then I know the midpoint of the range is about $0.025 lower versus prior. Is that South Carolina GRC delay-related? Can you manage it? Is there sort of a conservatism built in there?

    然後我知道這個區間的中點比之前低了大約0.025美元。這和南卡羅來納州GRC的延期有關嗎?你們能處理好嗎?這裡面是不是有點保守?

  • James R. Chapman - Executive VP, CFO & Treasurer

    James R. Chapman - Executive VP, CFO & Treasurer

  • Yes. A lot of parts of that question is normal. South Carolina had no impact on that guidance range, none.

    是的。這個問題的很多部分都是正常的。南卡羅來納州對這個指導範圍沒有影響,一點也沒有。

  • Well, let me walk through the elements of our guidance. So we have our long-term EPS growth guidance of 6.5%, which is intended to be more precise than our peers as opposed to a 200 basis point range.

    好吧,讓我來詳細講一下我們指引的要素。我們的長期每股盈餘成長指引是6.5%,比同業更精確,而不是200個基點的區間。

  • And what we do every year, as we go along that 6.5% long-term target rate, we choose a midpoint for our annual guidance. And around that midpoint, we have a range. And every quarter, we mention that, that range is intended primarily to capture different weather outcomes.

    我們每年都會在實現6.5%的長期目標利率的同時,選擇一個中間點作為年度指引。然後,我們會圍繞這個中間點設定一個區間。我們每季都會提到,這個區間主要是為了因應不同的天氣狀況。

  • Now going back a few years, that range was pretty wide. Within the last 5 years, it's $0.50, then it was $0.45, $0.30.

    回顧過去幾年,這個區間相當廣泛。過去5年裡,價格從0.50美元到0.45美元、0.30美元不等。

  • But the primary reason for that range, this year included, is to incorporate -- to accommodate various weather outcomes. The midpoint of the range is [3.85], and we're very confident in making that number and continuing our track record of meeting or exceeding on a weather-normal basis, like we talked about for the last 5 years.

    但設定這個區間(包括今年)的主要原因是為了適應各種天氣狀況。區間的中點是3.85,我們非常有信心達到這個數字,並延續我們在天氣正常情況下達到或超過預期的記錄,就像我們過去五年所說的那樣。

  • So there's a range. There's a midpoint. That midpoint, again, as I said in my prepared remarks, is consistent with the very narrow range of potential midpoint that we guided in July, not related to the South Carolina process.

    所以,這是一個範圍,一個中間點。正如我在準備好的發言稿中所說,這個中間點與我們7月份指導的非常狹窄的潛在中間點範圍一致,與南卡羅來納州的進程無關。

  • Shahriar Pourreza - MD and Head of North American Power

    Shahriar Pourreza - MD and Head of North American Power

  • Got it. Got it. And then just lastly, on the ratings. Obviously, you're presenting a really healthy cash flow outlook. The business risk profile has obviously improved. 9% utility growth, a lot of it is rider treatment, single-issue rate making, 15% FFO to debt levels. Any sort of -- an agency obviously also has a positive outlook. Metrics seem to point you closer to A-. Any sense on how the conversations are going with the rating agencies?

    明白了,明白了。最後,關於評級。顯然,你們的現金流前景非常健康。業務風險狀況明顯改善。公用事業成長9%,其中很大一部分來自附加條款、單一發行利率制定,營運現金流(FFO)與債務水準比達到15%。任何評級機構顯然也都持樂觀態度。各項指標似乎顯示你們的評級更接近A-。請問與評等機構的溝通進度如何?

  • James R. Chapman - Executive VP, CFO & Treasurer

    James R. Chapman - Executive VP, CFO & Treasurer

  • Let me say it this way. I think, generally, across the 3 rating agencies, there's a recognition of the senior management focus on credit that's been a part of all the transactions and financings we've done in the last years, and there's a recognition of the improvement that we've accomplished. So we're in a good spot.

    這麼說吧,我認為,總體而言,三家評級機構都認可我們高層對信用的重視,而這貫穿了我們過去幾年所有交易和融資的方方面面,也認可我們所取得的進步。所以,我們目前處於良好狀態。

  • Going forward, I wouldn't speculate on an upgrade. But what I would expect, maybe -- I'm not trying to get ahead of the agencies. But what I'd hope for is increased recognition of the very material improvement in our business risk profile from a credit perspective overall in last years and will just -- the dust has barely settled, right, on a last step of that with the sale of Gas Transmission & Storage. But I would hope that, that element would work its way more into the dialogue and even the thresholds that the various agencies apply to our company.

    展望未來,我不會預測評級會升級。但我的預期是,也許──我並非想搶在評級機構之前。我希望的是,從信用角度來看,我們業務風險狀況在過去幾年裡得到了顯著改善,而隨著天然氣輸送和儲存業務的出售,這方面的努力才剛剛塵埃落定。但我希望,這項因素能夠在對話中,甚至在各評級機構對我們公司適用的門檻上,得到更多認可。

  • Shahriar Pourreza - MD and Head of North American Power

    Shahriar Pourreza - MD and Head of North American Power

  • Terrific. All right. That's what I was trying to get at, Jim.

    太棒了。好吧。這就是我想表達的意思,吉姆。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Our next question comes from Julien Dumoulin-Smith with Bank of America.

    下一個問題來自美國銀行的 Julien Dumoulin-Smith。

  • Julien Patrick Dumoulin-Smith - Director and Head of the US Power, Utilities & Alternative Energy Equity Research

    Julien Patrick Dumoulin-Smith - Director and Head of the US Power, Utilities & Alternative Energy Equity Research

  • Perhaps to follow up on some of the last questions. I got a couple real quickly, if you can. I believe you just said a second ago, with respect to the 6.5% and the increased level of precision, I think Steve brought up earlier. Obviously, there's a lot baked into that 5-year outlook through '25. How do you get yourself so confident around that 6.5% precision that you guys articulated? I mean, obviously, it's purposeful, as you just said. If you can speak to it a little bit more narrowly about the level of confidence you have in these outcomes to drive that number, that would be great. And then I have a quick follow-up, if you don't mind.

    也許是為了跟進最後幾個問題。如果可以的話,我很快地問了幾個問題。我記得你剛才提到了6.5%和更高的精準度,我記得史蒂夫之前提到過。顯然,到2025年的五年展望包含了許多內容。你們是如何對你們提出的6.5%的精準度如此有信心的?我的意思是,顯然,這是有目的的,就像你剛才說的。如果你能更具體一點地談談你對這些結果推動這個數字的信心程度,那就太好了。然後,如果你不介意的話,我還有一個簡短的後續問題。

  • James R. Chapman - Executive VP, CFO & Treasurer

    James R. Chapman - Executive VP, CFO & Treasurer

  • Yes. I mean, I think I'd answer it simply this way, Julien. We were confident in July when we announced the 6.5% growth rate, and nothing has changed since then. We're still confident. We've outlined, as you've heard today, some roll-forward of our CapEx. We've got a lot of clarity on rider recoverability of that CapEx, and all of that contributes as we sort of develop our assumptions around our long-term growth rate to maintaining the confidence that we had last summer in that 6.5%.

    是的。朱利安,我想我可以這樣簡單回答。我們在7月宣布6.5%的成長率時充滿信心,從那時起也沒有任何變化。我們仍然充滿信心。正如你今天所聽到的,我們已經概述了一些資本支出的滾動計劃。我們對這些資本支出的可回收性有了非常清晰的認識,所有這些都有助於我們在製定長期成長率假設時,保持我們去年夏天對6.5%的信心。

  • Julien Patrick Dumoulin-Smith - Director and Head of the US Power, Utilities & Alternative Energy Equity Research

    Julien Patrick Dumoulin-Smith - Director and Head of the US Power, Utilities & Alternative Energy Equity Research

  • Got it. Fair enough. And then turning back to South Carolina quickly, if you can. Obviously, I heard what you said about '21 here. How do you think about prospects for settlement time line there, just given some of the generations? Then ultimately, CapEx, obviously, we're paying attention to what's going on with Duke in the Carolinas here, too. How do you think about CapEx opportunities as well?

    明白了。說得對。然後,如果可以的話,快速回到南卡羅來納州。顯然,我聽到了你關於21世紀的問題。考慮到幾代人的情況,你認為那裡的結算時間表前景如何?最後,說到資本支出,顯然,我們也在關注杜克大學在南卡羅來納州的情況。你如何看待資本支出機會?

  • Robert M. Blue - President, CEO & Director

    Robert M. Blue - President, CEO & Director

  • Yes. So on settlement, we're working through the pause that was ordered by the commission that we agreed to with monthly reports on that. And we're always optimistic about our prospects of selling cases because we think we're very creative in finding ways that we can resolve issues that are beneficial for customers and for the company.

    是的。關於和解,我們正在努力解決委員會要求的暫停問題,我們已同意每月提交報告。我們始終對案件的銷售前景持樂觀態度,因為我們認為我們非常善於找到既有利於客戶又有利於公司的解決問題的方法。

  • Ultimately, it requires all the parties to agree to settle. And it's -- I can't tell you what's in the mind of the counterparties. I can just tell you that we're working very hard toward that. And we have an endpoint that the commission said, "If you haven't settled, we'll start the case back up again." So we'll get there, either with a settlement or we'll finish the case. And it's a strong case.

    最終,它需要所有各方同意和解。我無法透露對方的想法。我只能說,我們正在為此努力。委員會已經設定了一個目標:「如果你們不和解,我們將重新審理此案。」 所以,我們要嘛達成和解,要嘛結束此案。這是一個強而有力的證據。

  • We were very confident in the case that we filed. We haven't had a base rate case in 8 years, and we've invested substantially in the system and improved the system, and we're entitled to return on those -- to a return on those investments. So we think it's a very strong case. Hopefully, we can settle it. If we can't, we're very comfortable with our ability to defend the position that we took in that case.

    我們對自己提起的訴訟非常有信心。八年來,我們從未遇到過基準利率案件,而且我們已在該系統上投入了大量資金並進行了改進,我們有權獲得這些投資的回報。因此,我們認為這是一個非常有力的案例。希望我們能夠和解。即使不能,我們也對自己在訴訟中堅持立場的能力充滿信心。

  • As to potential future growth, I mean, obviously, we need to get through this rate case and see. And that's our focus at the moment, along with making sure that we maintain our commitments that we made in the merger process. The IRP process obviously suggests that, going forward, there may be some further investment opportunities, and we'll certainly take advantage of those. But right now, what we're focused on is getting this first rate case resolved in a constructive manner.

    至於未來的潛在成長,我的意思是,顯然,我們需要先審理這個利率案件,然後再考慮。這是我們目前的重點,同時也要確保我們履行在合併過程中所做的承諾。 IRP流程顯然表明,未來可能會有一些進一步的投資機會,我們一定會抓住這些機會。但目前,我們的重點是以建設性的方式解決這個一流的案件。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Our next question comes from Michael Weinstein with Credit Suisse.

    我們的下一個問題來自瑞士信貸的麥可溫斯坦。

  • Michael Weinstein - United States Utilities Analyst

    Michael Weinstein - United States Utilities Analyst

  • I'm wondering if -- to what extent has additional tax credit extensions and some of the renewable stimulus planning that you're expecting to see from the Democrats over the next few months built into the plan? And is there potential for upside, especially when I look at like the solar and maybe even in the -- just in terms of customer affordability. Maybe you could afford to do some more work maybe in undergrounding or grid transformation?

    我想知道,您預計民主黨未來幾個月將推出的額外稅收抵免延期和一些可再生能源刺激計劃在多大程度上融入了該計劃?該計劃是否有上升潛力,尤其是考慮到太陽能,甚至可能在消費者負擔能力方面。或許您有能力在地下化或電網改造方面再做一些工作?

  • Robert M. Blue - President, CEO & Director

    Robert M. Blue - President, CEO & Director

  • Yes. That's a great question, Michael. And you're right. For us, in the regulated environment that we're talking about, the extension of the ITCs and various tax credits is customer-rate beneficial and doesn't change the investment return but definitely reduces the rate that customers pay. So we'll look at whether there are opportunities.

    是的。邁克爾,這個問題問得很好。你說得對。對我們來說,在我們討論的受監管環境下,投資稅收抵免(ITC)和各種稅收抵免的延長對客戶利率有利,這不會改變投資回報,但肯定會降低客戶支付的利率。所以我們會看看是否存在機會。

  • We have a pretty aggressive plan, as you've seen. And the Virginia Clean Economy Act last year passed an aggressive plan. So we're moving very quickly. If there are opportunities to advance, we'll take them. But the main effect of ITC extension is going to be benefit to customers on rate.

    如您所見,我們有一個非常積極的計劃。去年《維吉尼亞州清潔經濟法案》也通過了一項積極的計畫。所以我們的行動非常迅速。如果有推進的機會,我們就會抓住。但投資稅收抵免(ITC)延期的主要影響將是在費率方面惠及消費者。

  • James R. Chapman - Executive VP, CFO & Treasurer

    James R. Chapman - Executive VP, CFO & Treasurer

  • One thing, Michael, I'll add to that, it's Jim, is when it comes to ITCs that we recognize the earnings benefit from outside of a regulatory context, that, just to be clear, is not really a growth industry for us. Most of what we do that relates to ITC is in a regulated format, where it benefits our customers, as Bob said.

    邁克爾,還有一點,吉姆,我想補充一下,說到投資稅收抵免(ITC),我們認識到在監管環境之外的盈利收益,需要明確的是,這對我們來說並不是一個真正的增長行業。正如鮑伯所說,我們所做的大部分與投資稅收抵免相關的工作都是在受監管的框架下進行的,這有利於我們的客戶。

  • But 2 years ago at Investor Day, we gave some guidance that, that ITC recognition and earnings would be somewhere in the up to $0.15 per year range. And where we've been is really below that. In '18, we're at $0.09. In '19, we're $0.11. In '20, we were at $0.16. But we still plan to trend within that run rate up to 15% -- $0.15 per year guidance, so not a big impact in that area. It's mostly on the regulated customer benefit side, as Bob described.

    但兩年前的投資者日,我們給了一些指導意見,即投資稅收抵免(ITC)確認和收益將在每年最多0.15美元的範圍內。而我們目前的水平實際上低於這個數字。 2018年,我們的ITC確認和收益為0.09美元。 2019年,我們的ITC確認和收益為0.11美元。 2020年,我們的ITC確認和收益為0.16美元。但我們仍計劃將ITC的年化報酬率控制在15%的範圍內-也就是0.15美元的年化報酬率指引值,因此這方面不會有太大影響。正如Bob所說,這主要體現在受監管的客戶利益方面。

  • Michael Weinstein - United States Utilities Analyst

    Michael Weinstein - United States Utilities Analyst

  • All right. And just to be clear, the ITC doesn't reduce the rate base in any of the projects that you're working on, on the regulated side.

    好的。需要明確的是,ITC 不會降低您正在進行的任何受監管項目的費率基數。

  • Robert M. Blue - President, CEO & Director

    Robert M. Blue - President, CEO & Director

  • Yes. That's exactly right.

    是的,完全正確。

  • Michael Weinstein - United States Utilities Analyst

    Michael Weinstein - United States Utilities Analyst

  • And my understanding is the strategic undergrounding has driven -- the limit -- there's a limit to the amount you can invest there by law. Is there any talk of perhaps maybe extending that, considering maybe things might be getting more affordable to the federal tax credits?

    我的理解是,策略性地下化已經限制了——法律規定了在那裡投資的金額是有限制的。考慮到聯邦稅收抵免可能會讓事情變得更便宜,有沒有討論過延長這一期限?

  • Robert M. Blue - President, CEO & Director

    Robert M. Blue - President, CEO & Director

  • Yes. So that's a legislative -- that cap is in legislation that you're referring to. It has to do with a percentage of overall rate base. There's no legislation pending in Virginia right now on that issue. So if it were to be extended, it's unlikely that would happen this year.

    是的。所以這是一項立法——你提到的上限是立法規定的。它與總體稅基的一定比例有關。維吉尼亞州目前沒有關於這個問題的待決立法。所以,如果要延長,今年不太可能實現。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Our next question comes from Jeremy Tonet with JPMorgan.

    下一個問題來自摩根大通的 Jeremy Tonet。

  • Jeremy Bryan Tonet - Senior Analyst

    Jeremy Bryan Tonet - Senior Analyst

  • You've outlined the decarbonization opportunity for 2035.

    您概述了 2035 年的脫碳機會。

  • Robert M. Blue - President, CEO & Director

    Robert M. Blue - President, CEO & Director

  • Jeremy, we can barely hear you.

    傑里米,我們幾乎聽不到你說話。

  • Jeremy Bryan Tonet - Senior Analyst

    Jeremy Bryan Tonet - Senior Analyst

  • Sorry about that. Is that better?

    抱歉。這樣好些了嗎?

  • Robert M. Blue - President, CEO & Director

    Robert M. Blue - President, CEO & Director

  • Yes.

    是的。

  • Jeremy Bryan Tonet - Senior Analyst

    Jeremy Bryan Tonet - Senior Analyst

  • You outlined the decarbonization opportunity through 2035 today. How do you think about customer growth and other investments for that period? And given the magnitude of your clean spend here, do you expect this to capture an increasing share going forward, absent large changes in customer growth?

    您今天概述了2035年的脫碳機會。您如何看待這段時期的客戶成長和其他投資?考慮到您在清潔能源領域的支出規模,在客戶成長沒有重大變化的情況下,您是否預期清潔能源在未來的份額會持續成長?

  • Robert M. Blue - President, CEO & Director

    Robert M. Blue - President, CEO & Director

  • I'm sorry. We can talk a little bit about customer growth. I mean, we've had pretty consistent growth in our electric utility over the course of the last decade or so that we would expect to continue. On the Virginia side, for example, 35,000 new customers connected a year or so. On the gas side of our business, as we mentioned in our prepared remarks, strong -- very strong new customer growth. But I'm not sure I totally followed the second part of the question. I apologize.

    抱歉。我們可以談談客戶成長。我的意思是,過去十年左右,我們的電力業務一直保持著相當穩定的成長,預計還會持續下去。例如,在維吉尼亞州,我們每年新增客戶約3.5萬名。天然氣業務方面,正如我們在準備好的發言中所提到的,新客戶成長強勁——非常強勁。但我不確定我是否完全理解了問題的第二部分。抱歉。

  • Jeremy Bryan Tonet - Senior Analyst

    Jeremy Bryan Tonet - Senior Analyst

  • Just the relative share, I guess, of the green CapEx is -- just wanted to see if that's going to continue to be a large portion of what you're doing going forward. Or are there other chunky investments in the non-clean side we should think about there?

    我猜,綠色資本支出的相對份額是——只是想看看這是否會繼續成為你們未來投資的很大一部分。或者,在非清潔能源領域,我們是否應該考慮其他大額投資?

  • Robert M. Blue - President, CEO & Director

    Robert M. Blue - President, CEO & Director

  • No. It's -- the outlook is very much -- and I think it's really reflected on the slide that shows that $72 billion opportunity. That is all -- these are all decarbonization-related or enabling investments. So that's going to be the absolute lion's share of our investment going out, and we would expect that to continue even beyond that long-term period. Obviously, 15 years from now is a long time in this business.

    不。前景非常樂觀,我認為這在幻燈片中已經體現出來了,幻燈片上展示了720億美元的投資機會。僅此而已,這些都是與脫碳相關的投資或賦能性投資。因此,這絕對會佔據我們投資的最大份額,我們預計這種趨勢甚至會持續到那個長期之後。顯然,在這個行業中,15年後已經是一段很長的時間了。

  • Jeremy Bryan Tonet - Senior Analyst

    Jeremy Bryan Tonet - Senior Analyst

  • Right. Great. And then how much timing and recovery flexibility do you have with CCRO-eligible CapEx for the second triennial review period? Does your plan currently assume kind of baked-in recovery of any of this spend explicitly?

    對。太好了。那麼,在第二個三年期審查期內,對於符合CCRO資格的資本支出,你們在時間和回收方面有多少彈性?你們目前的計畫是否明確地假設了這些支出的回收?

  • Robert M. Blue - President, CEO & Director

    Robert M. Blue - President, CEO & Director

  • Yes. As I mentioned, we have a variety of assumptions, not one single assumption related to the '24 triennial. We do have a slide that shows what's eligible and the total there, and we'll sort of take advantage of that as circumstances warrant. It's too early for us to know how much of it we would expect to use in the '24 triennial. We just know what we're likely to have available. You can see that on that slide.

    是的。正如我所提到的,我們有各種各樣的假設,而不是單一的假設,都與2024年三年期計劃有關。我們確實有一張投影片,展示了哪些符合條件以及總額,我們會根據情況靈活運用。現在還無法確定2024年三年期計畫預計會用到多少資金。我們只知道大概有多少資金可用。你可以在那張投影片上看到。

  • Jeremy Bryan Tonet - Senior Analyst

    Jeremy Bryan Tonet - Senior Analyst

  • Got it. And one last one, if I could. You talked about Virginia legislation and just want to see about South Carolina legislation. And if securitization came through, how would you deal with that?

    明白了。如果可以的話,我還有最後一個問題。您談到了弗吉尼亞州的立法,現在想了解南卡羅來納州的立法。如果證券化法案通過,您會如何處理?

  • Robert M. Blue - President, CEO & Director

    Robert M. Blue - President, CEO & Director

  • Yes. We think securitization makes sense in certain circumstances. Storm recovery, for example, makes a lot of sense. Obviously, we didn't think it made sense with respect to new nuclear. So we'll see if it passes. If it passes in a way that would be constructive, that's great. We'll just have to wait and see how it is. I know that bill has been introduced a number of times in South Carolina in the past and hasn't been enacted, but circumstances like storm recovery makes a lot of sense.

    是的。我們認為證券化在某些情況下是合理的。例如,風暴後恢復就非常合理。顯然,我們認為它不適用於新的核電廠。所以我們拭目以待,看看它是否能通過。如果它以建設性的方式通過,那就太好了。我們只需要拭目以待,看看結果如何。我知道這項法案過去在南卡羅來納州已經多次提出,但尚未頒布,但像風暴後恢復這樣的情況非常合理。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Our next question comes from Durgesh Chopra with Evercore ISI.

    我們的下一個問題來自 Evercore ISI 的 Durgesh Chopra。

  • Durgesh Chopra - Associate

    Durgesh Chopra - Associate

  • Jim, on Slide 20, I'm just curious. The cash flow sources and uses go through '23, and the planned base. Am I reading too much into it? Or are there differences in the kind of the composition of cash sources and uses in '24 and '25 as you ramp up your offshore investment?

    Jim,關於第20張投影片,我只是好奇。現金流來源和用途涵蓋了2023年以及計畫基數。我是不是過度解讀了?或者,隨著你們加強海外投資力度,2024年和2025年的現金來源和用途組成會有所不同嗎?

  • James R. Chapman - Executive VP, CFO & Treasurer

    James R. Chapman - Executive VP, CFO & Treasurer

  • Yes, Durgesh. The reason we went to just a 3-year average view here is that, over 5 years, the numbers get pretty big and maybe a little bit more difficult to bridge from where we are now and where we were in '20.

    是的,杜爾格甚。我們之所以只採用3年的平均預測,是因為5年後,數字會變得相當大,而且可能更難將現在的水平與2020年的水平聯繫起來。

  • But -- you probably are reading too much into it. We have elsewhere, of course, disclosed our equity financing plan through the end of the period, on the next slide. So you can see that the financing is going to continue. What will change is the operating cash flow, which will grow on a 5-year basis; and the investing cash flow, which will grow slightly as it increased a little bit back dated in the 5-year plan. But nothing more interesting than that, I'd say.

    但是——你可能想太多了。當然,我們已經在下一張投影片揭露了截至本期末的股權融資計畫。所以你可以看到,融資將會持續下去。變化的是營運現金流,它將在五年內增長;投資現金流也將略有增長,因為它在五年計劃中略有增加。但我想,沒有什麼比這更有趣的了。

  • Durgesh Chopra - Associate

    Durgesh Chopra - Associate

  • Understood. I get it. Okay. So more sort of granularity and conviction in the years and -- but no significant changes in the makeup of source and uses.

    明白了。我明白了。好的。所以這些年來,數據更加細化,也更加可信——但數據來源和用途的組成並沒有顯著變化。

  • James R. Chapman - Executive VP, CFO & Treasurer

    James R. Chapman - Executive VP, CFO & Treasurer

  • Bigger numbers, that's not it.

    更大的數字,不是這樣的。

  • Durgesh Chopra - Associate

    Durgesh Chopra - Associate

  • Yes. Okay. All right. And then just quickly following up, just on Slide 10. And maybe, Bob, this is for you or perhaps even Jim. Just the largest regulated decarbonization plan, love it. But in terms of when I'm thinking about any legislative support that you need, is it fair to assume that this opportunity of $72 billion sort of is -- you can accomplish this with the Virginia Clean Energy Act? Or do you need further legislative support so you can act on these opportunities?

    是的。好的。好的。然後快速跟進一下,就在投影片10。鮑勃,也許這是給你的,甚至是吉姆的。這是最大的受監管脫碳計劃,我喜歡它。但是,當我考慮你需要的任何立法支持時,是否可以假設這個720億美元的機會——你可以透過《維吉尼亞清潔能源法案》來實現?或者你需要進一步的立法支持,以便你能夠利用這些機會?

  • Robert M. Blue - President, CEO & Director

    Robert M. Blue - President, CEO & Director

  • Your assumption is correct. This is based upon the Virginia Clean Economy Act and the Grid Transformation & Security Act in 2018, so all of this is already legislatively authorized. Now we obviously have to seek approval from the commission for projects, and we've demonstrated on solar. And as I mentioned in earlier remarks, we've had 3 solar filings approved by the commission already. And we've had our electric transmission spend and those kinds of things approved consistently over the years. But we don't need additional -- we're not looking for additional legislative enactments to carry out this 15-year regulated book.

    你的假設是正確的。這是基於2018年的《維吉尼亞州清潔經濟法案》和《電網轉型與安全法案》,所以所有這些都獲得立法授權。現在,我們顯然需要獲得委員會對專案的批准,而且我們已經在太陽能專案上進行了示範。正如我之前提到的,我們已經有3份太陽能專案申請獲得了委員會的批准。多年來,我們的電力傳輸支出以及類似的項目也一直獲得批准。但我們不需要額外的——我們並不期望透過額外的立法來執行這項為期15年的監管法案。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Our next question comes from James Thalacker with BMO Capital Markets.

    我們的下一個問題來自 BMO 資本市場的 James Thalacker。

  • James Macdonald Thalacker - Research Analyst

    James Macdonald Thalacker - Research Analyst

  • Just wanted to circle back on your comments just on bill affordability as you implement your capital plan, and Mike Weinstein actually raised a good question. As we saw the extension of the ITC at 30% at the end of the year, could you potentially talk to how that's going to -- how do you maybe quantify or how it's going to impact customer rates and making things more affordable as you implement your capital plan?

    我想回到您關於在實施資本計劃時賬單可負擔性的評論,Mike Weinstein 確實提出了一個很好的問題。我們看到投資稅(ITC)在年底將延長 30%,您能否談談這將如何影響客戶費率?您如何量化它,或者它將如何影響客戶費率,以及如何在實施資本計劃時使帳單更可負擔?

  • Robert M. Blue - President, CEO & Director

    Robert M. Blue - President, CEO & Director

  • Yes. I don't think we've quantified that yet. So we filed an integrated resource plan earlier this year and -- or last year, I guess, we're in 2021. The 2020 integrated resource plan, we showed a 10-year look at 2.9% that we talked about. Well, I'm confidently updating that. We certainly have an IRP update later this year in Virginia. And I would expect, as part of that, we'll run the numbers on the customer rates. But we don't have -- we haven't quantified customer rate impacts of that ITC at this point.

    是的。我認為我們還沒有量化這一點。我們在今年稍早提交了一份綜合資源計劃,或者說去年,我想,現在已經是2021年了。在2020年的綜合資源計畫中,我們展示了我們之前談到的10年期2.9%的預期。嗯,我正在自信地更新這個數字。我們今年稍後肯定會在維吉尼亞州進行綜合資源計劃的更新。我預計,作為其中的一部分,我們會計算出客戶費率的數據。但目前我們還沒有量化該投資稅收抵免(ITC)對客戶費率的影響。

  • James Macdonald Thalacker - Research Analyst

    James Macdonald Thalacker - Research Analyst

  • That's great. But I would assume that it would give you a little bit more flexibility as we're looking down the road here?

    太好了。不過,我想,這樣一來,我們以後的發展會更靈活一些吧?

  • Robert M. Blue - President, CEO & Director

    Robert M. Blue - President, CEO & Director

  • That is absolutely true. It's going to have benefits to customers in rates and offers us flexibility as we go forward.

    確實如此。這將為客戶帶來利率優勢,並為我們未來的發展提供靈活性。

  • James Macdonald Thalacker - Research Analyst

    James Macdonald Thalacker - Research Analyst

  • Great. And just, I guess, just to stay along that line. I know we're looking a little bit farther out. But like maybe you could touch a little bit about some of the programs or -- I don't know if you're ready to quantify, but how you're thinking about controlling costs to create more headroom to continue to implement your capital plan over the next, say, 5 to 7 years.

    太好了。我想,就沿著這條線繼續聊下去吧。我知道我們看得有點遠了。不過,也許您可以稍微談談一些項目,或者——我不知道您是否準備好量化,但您打算如何控製成本,從而創造更多空間,以便在未來5到7年內繼續實施您的資本計劃。

  • James R. Chapman - Executive VP, CFO & Treasurer

    James R. Chapman - Executive VP, CFO & Treasurer

  • Yes. Let me talk about that. It's Jim. ITC is one element which will benefit customers, for sure, but the other is O&M. And let me give some kind of high-level thoughts on that. We talked at our last Investor Day about flat normalized O&M. So normalized is normalizing for new riders that haven't associated acquired O&M or things like pension benefits, which discount rates and the like, make that number go up and down. So we normalize for all that, and then we keep it flat.

    是的,我來談談這個。我是吉姆。投資稅收抵免(ITC)肯定是惠及客戶的一個因素,但另一個因素是營運和維護(O&M)。讓我就此談談一些宏觀層面的看法。我們在上次投資者日談到了持平的標準化營運和維護。標準化是指對未關聯已購營運和維護或退休金福利等的新附加險進行標準化,這些附加險的折扣率等因素會導致該數字上下波動。因此,我們對所有這些附加險進行標準化,然後使其保持平穩。

  • And in 2019, we gave an estimate that by keeping it flat for 3 years across our entire business, we were going to stay versus a 2% escalator like $200-ish million in cumulative basis, and we did. So now it's still flat, and we're rolling that out for the full 5-year period.

    2019年,我們估計,如果在整個業務範圍內保持三年平穩增長,累計利潤將達到2億美元左右,而不是像2%的自動遞增模式那樣,我們確實做到了。所以現在利潤仍然保持平穩,我們將在整個五年期間保持這一水平。

  • Now we did have some savings that actually went down a little bit in 2019 -- sorry, in 2020 from COVID, not all that's permanent. But our effort to keep that flat O&M, so negating inflation or wage increases and things like that, it's not easy. But it's not through big things, like some of our peers have talked about, step changes in O&M discovered during COVID. We had some COVID savings, for sure, but our approach is a little bit different. It's kind of programmatic. It's pushing cost savings as part of the system, the culture, so finding ways to use technology and work smarter throughout the business.

    我們確實有一些節省,實際上在2019年有所下降——抱歉,2020年受新冠疫情影響,這些節省並非永久性的。但我們努力維持營運成本和維護成本的平穩,抵消通貨膨脹或薪資上漲等因素的影響,這並非易事。但這並不是透過一些同業談到的、在新冠疫情期間發現的營運成本和維護成本的逐步變化來實現的。我們確實有一些新冠疫情期間的節省,但我們的方法略有不同。這是一種程式化的模式。我們將成本節約作為系統和文化的一部分來推動,從而在整個企業範圍內尋找利用技術、更聰明地工作的方法。

  • So we have examples of that, that helps us keep that flat O&M. They're tiny in comparison to Dominion: electronic timesheets and electronic signatures, and they've gone along this, they're all tiny, but they add up. And that the kind of thing, the small efforts throughout the company, every state, every location that allow us to keep that normalized OEM flat. And the reason we do that is to make room in the customer bill. Yes. It helps out on the customer side and potentially also creates room in that bill for the capital spending that also benefits customers. So that's kind of our other lever we have in managing customer bill is continuing to manage that flat O&M.

    我們有這樣的例子,這有助於我們維持扁平化的維運成本。與 Dominion 相比,這些成本微不足道:電子時間表和電子簽名,它們都已經沿用,雖然規模不大,但積少成多。正是這種在整個公司、每個州、每個地點進行的細微努力,讓我們能夠保持標準化的 OEM 成本穩定。我們這樣做的原因是為了在客戶帳單中騰出空間。是的。這不僅對客戶有幫助,而且可能還能為資本支出騰出空間,最終使客戶受益。所以,這是我們管理客戶帳單的另一個槓桿,就是繼續保持扁平化的維運成本。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Our next question comes from Michael Lapides with Goldman Sachs.

    我們的下一個問題來自高盛的邁克爾·拉皮德斯。

  • Michael Jay Lapides - VP

    Michael Jay Lapides - VP

  • Great slide deck today. Lots of detail. I have 2 questions. One, can you remind us as a percent of rate base or dollar millions, what is the coal generation in rate base, both in Virginia and South Carolina?

    今天的幻燈片很棒,細節豐富。我有兩個問題。第一,您能否以費率基數的百分比或百萬美元來舉例,弗吉尼亞州和南卡羅來納州的煤炭發電量在費率基數中分別是多少?

  • James R. Chapman - Executive VP, CFO & Treasurer

    James R. Chapman - Executive VP, CFO & Treasurer

  • We set that out on a whole-company basis, Michael, on Page 32. And as a percentage of total investment base, which is rate base plus the fixed assets, the PP&E for our smaller contracted assets business, is 7%, 7% of rate base effectively. And just for the 5-year plan, given obviously the spending on other areas, that goes to 4% by 2025 and down from there.

    邁克爾,我們在第32頁以全公司範圍進行了闡述。佔總投資基數(即費率基數加上固定資產)的百分比,我們規模較小的合約資產業務的廠房、設備及設備(PP&E)佔費率基數的7%,實際上就是7%。就五年計畫而言,考慮到其他領域的支出,到2025年,這一比例將降至4%,之後還會繼續下降。

  • Michael Jay Lapides - VP

    Michael Jay Lapides - VP

  • Got it. So if I think about it at the Virginia level, and you've done a significant amount of coal retirements in Virginia, if you wanted to retire facilities even earlier than planned, some of the coal facilities there, that would accrue or account as part of the CCRO in the 2021 to 2024 time frame? Am I thinking that that's also an alternative, not just investing new capital that would necessarily get a cash return but the write-downs of some of the older coal plants might as well?

    明白了。所以,如果我從弗吉尼亞州的層面來考慮,而且你們已經在弗吉尼亞州完成了大量的煤電退役,如果你想比計劃更早地退役這些設施,那麼那裡的一些煤電設施,將在2021年至2024年期間累計或計入CCRO(聯合循環再造計劃)嗎?我是不是認為這也是一種選擇,不僅投資必然能獲得現金回報的新資本,而且一些老舊煤電廠的減記也可能帶來同樣的效果?

  • Robert M. Blue - President, CEO & Director

    Robert M. Blue - President, CEO & Director

  • Yes. A couple of things there, Michael. One is, obviously, we don't make decisions on fossil retirements based on the timing related to a regulatory proceeding. That's -- we make those decisions based on the sustainability of those plants going forward or if there's a change in the law or those kinds of things. So I think that's an important thing to keep in mind.

    是的。邁克爾,有幾點要注意。首先,我們顯然不會根據監管程序的時間來決定是否淘汰化石燃料發電廠。我們會根據這些電廠未來的可持續性,或法律是否會改變等因素來做出決定。所以我認為這是需要牢記的重要一點。

  • And then the other is that you are sort of conflating 2 different topics, I think. One is this customer credit reinvestment offset, which is provided for by statute. Those are projects that are either grid transformation projects or renewable projects, where that capital investment can be applied as essentially the customer benefit in an earnings sharing mechanism.

    另一個問題是,我認為你有點混淆了兩個不同的主題。一個是客戶信用再投資抵消,這是法律規定的。這些項目要么是電網改造項目,要么是再生能源項目,這些資本投資本質上可以作為客戶收益,用於收益分享機制。

  • When you calculate what the -- when the triennial review is done and there are available earnings, there's an earnings sharing mechanism and then for the customer portion of that to either be a refund or one of these renewable or grid transformation projects.

    當你計算時——當三年期審查完成並且有可用收益時,就會有一個收益分享機制,然後客戶部分要么是退款,要么是這些可再生或電網轉型項目之一。

  • I think what you're thinking of is if there is -- if we retire a plant early, there's a write-down. And then that expense would be treated logically as an expense in the period if there are available earnings. That's for customers. It's what long-standing practice has been in Virginia.

    我想你考慮的是,如果我們提前關閉一家工廠,就會進行減損。然後,如果還有可用收益,這筆費用在合理範圍內就會計入當期費用。這是為了客戶。維吉尼亞州長期以來的做法就是這樣的。

  • So 2 sort of slightly different things you're talking about there. Both have some impact on the calculation and the triennial, but we're obviously a long ways away from the second triennial here.

    所以你提到的是兩件略有不同的事情。兩者都對計算和三年展都有一定影響,但顯然我們距離第二個三年展還有很長的路要走。

  • Michael Jay Lapides - VP

    Michael Jay Lapides - VP

  • Understood. And just coming back to the coal generation question, do you think your coal units in both states, given how much power prices have come down, given how much CapEx costs for renewables and storage have come down, do you think the coal units are currently economic still to the existing operating coal units? And is there a dramatic difference between the ones in Virginia and the ones in South Carolina?

    明白了。回到煤炭發電的問題,考慮到電價下降了多少,考慮到再生能源和儲能的資本支出下降了多少,您認為這兩個州的煤炭發電廠目前相對於現有的營運煤炭發電廠來說是否仍然具有經濟效益?維吉尼亞州和南卡羅來納州的煤炭發電廠之間是否有顯著差異?

  • James R. Chapman - Executive VP, CFO & Treasurer

    James R. Chapman - Executive VP, CFO & Treasurer

  • Yes. I don't know that I'd say there's a dramatic difference. We obviously look at the economics of those plants regularly and make a determination whether they are viable in the future and whether they're properly valued. So we'll do that -- continue to do that on a regular basis.

    是的。我不確定這是否會有太大的差異。我們當然會定期評估這些工廠的經濟效益,判斷它們未來是否可行,以及它們的估值是否合理。我們會定期這樣做,並且會持續這樣做。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Our final question comes from Srinjoy Banerjee with Barclays.

    我們的最後一個問題來自巴克萊銀行的 Srinjoy Banerjee。

  • Srinjoy Banerjee - Research Analyst

    Srinjoy Banerjee - Research Analyst

  • Just on thinking about FFO to debt metrics as well as the ratings. So obviously, you guys have seen a consistent improvement to those metrics, 15% in 2020. If you look at the S&P and Moody's targets for high BBB, I guess S&P requires 15%, and Moody's requires 17%. So how do you see your FFO to debt metrics evolve over the time period? Would you expect to stay around the 15% mark or expect an improvement given the riders that you have?

    我只是在思考財務營運資金(FFO)與債務比率指標以及評級。顯然,你們已經看到這些指標持續改善,2020年達到了15%。如果你看看標準普爾和穆迪對高BBB評等的目標,我猜標準普爾要求達到15%,穆迪要求達到17%。那麼,您認為您們的財務營運資金(FFO)與負債比率指標在這段時間內會如何變化?考慮到你們現有的附加條款,你們預計會保持在15%左右,還是會有所改善?

  • James R. Chapman - Executive VP, CFO & Treasurer

    James R. Chapman - Executive VP, CFO & Treasurer

  • Srinjoy, thanks a lot. Good to hear from you. Yes. The way we think about that is we've -- it hasn't been easy to achieve the improvement that we show that one slide to get to the solidly mid-teens level, and that's where we expect it to stay. So I think maybe you were suggesting, is there an upgrade in the air? Of course, not against that. But we -- what we really hope comes to pass at some point is, again, further recognition of the business risk profile improvement.

    Srinjoy,非常感謝。很高興收到您的來信。是的。我們的想法是——要實現我們在幻燈片中展示的那種改善並不容易,要達到穩定的中期水平,而且我們預計它會保持在這個水平。所以,我想您可能想問,是否有升級的跡象?當然,我並不反對。但我們真正希望的是,在某個時候,能夠再次進一步認識到業務風險狀況的改善。

  • So I wouldn't expect material changes in the metrics from where we are, from what we've achieved and where we landed. I think that's in a good spot. Probably it will stay. But we'd love to have a little bit more headroom to that recognition I mentioned, and we want that headroom not because we want to blow through it but just because we think it's more the better. So that's kind of where we are on credit.

    因此,我預期各項指標與我們現在的水準、已經取得的成就和最終的成果相比不會發生重大變化。我認為目前的水平還不錯,可能會保持下去。但我們希望能比我提到的認可度再高一些,我們想要這個空間,並非因為我們想突破它,而是因為我們認為空間越大越好。所以,我們的信譽度大致是如此。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Thank you. This does conclude this morning's conference call. You may now disconnect your lines and enjoy your day.

    謝謝。今天上午的電話會議到此結束。現在您可以掛斷電話,享受美好的一天了。