Crane NXT Co (CXT) 2023 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Good morning, ladies and gentlemen, and thank you for standing by. Welcome to the Crane NXT Fourth Quarter and Full Year 2023 Earnings Conference Call. (Operator Instructions) Please note that this conference is being recorded.

早安，女士們先生們，感謝你們的支持。歡迎參加 Crane NXT 2023 年第四季和全年財報電話會議。 （操作員說明）請注意，本次會議正在錄製中。

I would now like to hand the call over to Rima Hyder, Vice President of Investor Relations, to begin the presentation. Rima, you may begin.

現在我想將電話轉交給投資人關係副總裁 Rima Hyder，讓他開始演講。莉瑪，你可以開始了。

Thank you, operator, and good morning, everyone. I'm Rima Hyder, Vice President of Investor Relations, and I want to welcome all of you to the fourth quarter 2023 earnings call for Crane NXT. Before we begin, the slides we will reference during this presentation can be accessed via the Investor Relations section of our website at cranenxt.com. A replay of today's call will also be available on our website.

謝謝接線員，大家早安。我是投資人關係副總裁 Rima Hyder，歡迎大家參加 Crane NXT 2023 年第四季財報電話會議。在開始之前，我們將在本次簡報中引用的幻燈片可以透過我們網站crarannxt.com 的投資者關係部分存取。今天電話會議的重播也將在我們的網站上提供。

Before we discuss our results, I encourage all listeners to review the legal notice on Slide 2, which explains the risks of forward-looking statements and the use of non-GAAP financial measures. Additionally, we refer you to the cautionary language at the bottom of our earnings release and in our Forms 10-K and 10-Q filings pertaining to forward-looking statements.

在我們討論我們的結果之前，我鼓勵所有聽眾查看投影片 2 上的法律聲明，其中解釋了前瞻性陳述的風險以及非 GAAP 財務指標的使用。此外，我們建議您參閱我們的收益報告底部以及與前瞻性陳述相關的 10-K 表格和 10-Q 表格文件中的警告性語言。

During the call, we will also be using some non-GAAP numbers, which are reconciled to the comparable GAAP numbers in tables at the end of our press release and accompanying slide presentation, both of which are available on our website at cranenxt.com in the Investor Relations section.

在電話會議期間，我們還將使用一些非GAAP 數字，這些數字與我們的新聞稿和隨附幻燈片演示末尾的表格中的可比較GAAP 數字進行了核對，這兩個數字都可以在我們的網站crarannxt .com上獲得投資者關係部分。

On our call this morning, we will discuss 2023 highlights, our financial results and 2024 guidance as well as our goals and strategy for this year. For this discussion with me today are Aaron Saak, our President and Chief Executive Officer; and Christina Cristiano, our Senior Vice President and Chief Financial Officer. After our prepared remarks, we will open the call to analysts for questions. Now let me turn the call over to Aaron.

在今天早上的電話會議上，我們將討論 2023 年的亮點、我們的財務表現和 2024 年的指導以及我們今年的目標和策略。今天與我討論的是我們的總裁兼執行長 Aaron Saak；以及我們的高級副總裁兼財務長克里斯蒂娜·克里斯蒂亞諾。在我們準備好的發言之後，我們將開始向分析師提問。現在讓我把電話轉給亞倫。

Thank you, Rima, and good morning. We appreciate everyone joining the call to discuss our fourth quarter and full year 2023 results as well as our outlook for 2024. 2023 marked the start of Crane NXT's journey as a premier industrial technology company, and I wanted to take a moment to reflect on that year and thank all of our associates around the world who made 2023 so successful.

謝謝你，裡瑪，早安。我們感謝大家加入電話會議，討論我們的 2023 年第四季度和全年業績以及我們對 2024 年的展望。2023 年標誌著 Crane NXT 作為一流工業技術公司旅程的開始，我想花點時間反思這一點感謝我們在世界各地的所有員工，是他們讓2023 年取得如此成功。

One of our shared values is people matter, and I couldn't be more proud and grateful to be part of this outstanding team. In April, we successfully launched the company, built out our new corporate leadership team and continued our disciplined approach to operating our core business. We also established our 5-year vision to grow the company to $3 billion, building from our strong position as a trusted partner, providing technology solutions that secure, detect and authenticate what matters most to our customers.

我們的共同價值觀之一是以人為本，能夠成為這個傑出團隊的一員，我感到非常自豪和感激。四月份，我們成功成立了公司，組建了新的企業領導團隊，並繼續以嚴格的方式經營我們的核心業務。我們還制定了將公司發展到 30 億美元的 5 年願景，憑藉我們作為值得信賴的合作夥伴的強大地位，提供能夠保護、檢測和驗證對客戶最重要的內容的技術解決方案。

As we announced yesterday, we delivered strong operational performance, growing revenues organically by 4% with adjusted segment operating profit of 28% and delivering adjusted EPS above our guidance. A hallmark of our company is our strong free cash flow. We ended the year with adjusted free cash flow conversion of over 100%, allowing us to further pay down our debt and giving us confidence as we move forward with an increase to our dividend by 14% for 2024.

正如我們昨天宣布的那樣，我們實現了強勁的營運業績，收入有機增長了 4%，調整後的部門營運利潤為 28%，調整後的每股收益高於我們的指導。我們公司的一個標誌是我們強大的自由現金流。截至年底，我們的調整後自由現金流轉換率超過 100%，這使我們能夠進一步償還債務，並給我們信心，讓我們在 2024 年將股息增加 14% 的過程中前進。

And finally, we developed a strong M&A pipeline. And we are on track for our first acquisition in 2024. I'm very proud of our accomplishments during our first year as Crane NXT and believe we have set up the company for long-term success.

最後，我們開發了強大的併購管道。我們預計在 2024 年進行首次收購。我對加入 Crane NXT 第一年的成就感到非常自豪，並相信我們已經為公司建立了長期成功。

Moving to our full year '23 financial results. We executed very well to close out this year, delivering results at or ahead of our guidance on all key metrics. We had revenue of $1.4 billion with core sales growth of 4%, in line with our guidance and improved segment operating profit margin by 30 basis points over '22 and above our guidance.

現在來看看我們 23 年全年的財務表現。我們今年的表現非常出色，所有關鍵指標的表現均達到或領先於我們的指導值。我們的營收為 14 億美元，核心銷售額成長 4%，與我們的指導一致，部門營業利潤率比 22 年提高了 30 個基點，並高於我們的指導。

Adjusted EBITDA was $388 million, which was also above our guidance, and adjusted EPS of $4.16 exceeded the high end of our outlook. Adjusted free cash flow conversion for the full year was 111%. Our very strong cash conversion enabled us to pay down $245 million of debt in '23, lowering our net leverage ratio to 1.1x.

調整後 EBITDA 為 3.88 億美元，也高於我們的指導，調整後每股收益 4.16 美元超過了我們預期的上限。全年調整後自由現金流轉換率為 111%。我們非常強勁的現金轉換使我們能夠在 23 年償還 2.45 億美元的債務，將我們的淨槓桿率降低至 1.1 倍。

We will continue to focus on this disciplined execution in 2024, utilizing the power of the Crane business system. And as you saw in our earnings release yesterday, we're starting the year with core sales growth guidance of negative 1% to plus 2% over '23 and adjusted EPS of $4.10 to $4.35, which we believe is an appropriately risk-adjusted guidance given the dynamics in our businesses.

2024 年，我們將利用克瑞業務系統的力量，繼續專注於這種嚴格的執行。正如您在昨天的財報中看到的那樣，我們年初的核心銷售成長指引為23 年負1% 至正2%，調整後每股收益為4.10 美元至4.35 美元，我們認為這是一個適當的風險調整指引鑑於我們業務的動態。

With that, I'm now going to hand the call over to Christina to walk us through in more details our Q4 and full year '23 financial performance as well as provide more details on our guidance. Christina?

現在，我將把電話轉給克里斯蒂娜，讓我們更詳細地了解第四季度和 23 年全年的財務業績，並提供有關我們指導的更多詳細資訊。克里斯蒂娜？

Thank you, Aaron. What a great close to this extraordinary year where we celebrated the launch of Crane NXT. Our significant accomplishments in this short period of time are a testament to the hard work and dedication of our global associates, and I would like to thank and congratulate everyone.

謝謝你，亞倫。我們慶祝 Crane NXT 的推出，為這一非凡的一年畫上了圓滿的句號。我們在這麼短的時間內取得的重大成就證明了我們全球員工的辛勤工作和奉獻精神，我要感謝並祝賀大家。

Starting on Slide 5. We had a strong fourth quarter with core sales growth of approximately 4%, adjusted segment operating margin of 27% and adjusted EPS of $0.99. As Aaron mentioned, adjusted free cash flow conversion was over 100% in line with our expectations, demonstrating our consistent focus on operational excellence.

從投影片 5 開始。我們第四季表現強勁，核心銷售額成長約 4%，調整後的部門營業利潤率為 27%，調整後每股收益為 0.99 美元。正如 Aaron 所提到的，調整後的自由現金流轉換率超過 100% 符合我們的預期，這表明我們對卓越營運的一貫關注。

For the full year, we also had over 4% core sales growth, 28% adjusted segment operating margin, which is an expansion of 30 basis points year-over-year; and adjusted EPS of $4.16, which beat the top end of our guidance. Overall, we are pleased with the results for Q4 and 2023, which were underpinned by continued disciplined operating execution by both segments.

全年，我們的核心銷售額成長超過 4%，調整後的部門營業利潤率達到 28%，較去年同期成長 30 個基點；調整後每股收益為 4.16 美元，超出了我們指導的上限。整體而言，我們對第四季和 2023 年的業績感到滿意，這得益於兩個部門持續嚴格的營運執行。

Moving to our segment. CPI reported a decline in core sales of 7% in the fourth quarter as expected. And adjusted segment operating margin decreased 260 basis points to 29% year-over-year, reflecting lower volumes and an unfavorable product mix, offset by strong pricing execution.

轉到我們的部分。 CPI報告第四季核心銷售額下降7%，符合預期。調整後的分部營業利潤率年減 260 個基點至 29%，反映出銷售量下降和不利的產品組合，但被強勁的定價執行所抵銷。

As we discussed last quarter, this decline was driven by softness in new orders, primarily in our gaming end market where customers continue to draw down on their inventory overstock and in our retail end market where projects have been delayed. While our backlog has come down significantly since the beginning of the year, we are still at approximately 1.5x what we would consider normal.

正如我們上季度所討論的，這種下降是由新訂單疲軟推動的，主要是在我們的遊戲終端市場，客戶繼續消耗庫存積壓，以及在我們的零售終端市場，項目被推遲。儘管自今年年初以來，我們的積壓訂單已大幅減少，但仍約為正常水準的 1.5 倍。

We are working with our customers to assess the timing of their demand while also managing our inventory levels very closely. For the full year, CPI core sales grew at 2%, in line with our expectations and we delivered adjusted margin expansion of 190 basis points, driven by continued disciplined pricing, which more than offset inflation.

我們正在與客戶合作評估他們的需求時間，同時密切管理我們的庫存水準。全年，CPI 核心銷售成長 2%，符合我們的預期，在持續嚴格定價的推動下，我們實現了 190 個基點的調整後利潤率擴張，這足以抵消通膨。

Moving to Crane Currency. The quarter was well ahead of our expectations with core sales growth of 29%, driven by strength in the international currency business. Adjusted segment operating margin improved 230 basis points year-over-year, reflecting favorable mix. Backlog was up 26% from the prior year as we continue to see new orders in our international business. This includes a significant multiyear banknote order secured in the fourth quarter, which will contribute to elevated backlog levels through 2026.

轉向起重機貨幣。在國際貨幣業務強勁的推動下，本季核心銷售額成長 29%，遠遠超出了我們的預期。調整後的分部營業利潤率年增 230 個基點，反映出有利的組合。由於國際業務中不斷出現新訂單，積壓訂單較前一年增加了 26%。其中包括第四季度獲得的大量多年期紙幣訂單，這將導致 2026 年積壓水準上升。

For the full year, Crane Currency had exceptional performance with 8% core sales growth. Adjusted segment operating margin of 26% declined 240 basis points year-over-year, reflecting unfavorable mix in the U.S. business, where production was more heavily skewed toward lower denomination bank notes.

克瑞貨幣全年表現出色，核心銷售額成長 8%。調整後的分部營業利潤率為 26%，年減 240 個基點，反映出美國業務的不利組合，美國業務的生產更嚴重地偏向小面額紙幣。

Moving on to our balance sheet. Our adjusted free cash flow was $65 million in the quarter. Given the strong free cash flow, we repaid another $70 million of our term loan during the fourth quarter, reducing our net leverage ratio to approximately 1.1x. In total, in 2023, we paid down $245 million of our $350 million term loan. We now have over $1 billion of M&A capacity and substantial flexibility to deploy capital toward acquisition opportunities that meet our strategic and financial criteria.

繼續我們的資產負債表。本季調整後的自由現金流為 6,500 萬美元。鑑於強勁的自由現金流，我們在第四季度又償還了 7000 萬美元的定期貸款，將我們的淨槓桿率降低至約 1.1 倍。 2023 年，我們總共償還了 3.5 億美元定期貸款中的 2.45 億美元。我們現在擁有超過 10 億美元的併購能力，並且能夠靈活地部署資本來尋找符合我們策略和財務標準的收購機會。

Additionally, we announced an increase to our annual dividend of 14% based on our strong cash flow, continuing our commitment to deliver value to our shareholders.

此外，基於強勁的現金流，我們宣布將年度股息提高 14%，並繼續履行為股東創造價值的承諾。

Moving to 2024 guidance. We expect to deliver full year adjusted EPS in the range of $4.10 to $4.35 with core sales growth between minus 1% to plus 2%. The midpoint of this range assumes that gaming orders returned to growth in the fourth quarter for CPI. And that in Crane Currency, we stay on track to return to normal operations after the planned shutdown of our paper making equipment for upgrades related to the new U.S. banknote series.

轉向 2024 年指導。我們預計全年調整後每股收益將在 4.10 美元至 4.35 美元之間，核心銷售額成長將在負 1% 至正 2% 之間。該範圍的中點假設博彩訂單在第四季度的 CPI 中恢復成長。在克瑞貨幣方面，在計劃關閉造紙設備以進行與新美國鈔票系列相關的升級之後，我們仍有望恢復正常運作。

Given these dynamics, I want to point out that the phasing of revenue in 2024 will be more heavily weighted toward the second half of the year versus our historical performance. We see opportunity for upside to our guidance based on the potential acceleration of projects in CPI's retail end market, order flow resuming earlier than expected in the gaming market and additional wins in the international currency market.

考慮到這些動態，我想指出，與我們的歷史表現相比，2024 年的收入階段將更側重於下半年。基於 CPI 零售終端市場項目的潛在加速、博彩市場訂單流恢復時間早於預期以及國際貨幣市場的額外勝利，我們認為我們的指引存在上行機會。

We are guiding to segment margins in the range of 27% to 29%, reflecting continued disciplined pricing and driving productivity through the Crane business system. Corporate expenses are expected to be approximately $53 million, an increase from 2023, reflecting a full year run rate of costs for employees that were hired last year. Additionally, we expect nonoperating expenses of approximately $37 million, reflecting lower interest expense due to the paydown of debt. Similar to 2023, we expect to convert our adjusted free cash flow at approximately 100%.

我們的目標細分市場利潤率在 27% 至 29% 之間，反映出持續嚴格的定價並透過克瑞業務系統提高生產力。公司支出預計約為 5,300 萬美元，較 2023 年有所增加，反映了去年僱用的員工的全年成本運行率。此外，我們預計營業外支出約為 3,700 萬美元，反映出由於償還債務而導致的利息支出下降。與 2023 年類似，我們預計調整後自由現金流的轉換率約為 100%。

Let me now hand it back to Aaron for additional details on key drivers impacting our outlook within each segment.

現在讓我將其交還給亞倫，以獲取有關影響我們每個細分市場前景的關鍵驅動因素的更多詳細資訊。

Thanks, Christina. Moving on to Slide 13. I want to highlight some of the dynamics we see playing out in 2024. At Crane Currency, we delivered an outstanding performance in 2023 with 8% core sales growth and increased our international market share driven by further adoption of our micro-optics technology.

謝謝，克里斯蒂娜。繼續看投影片 13。我想強調我們在 2024 年看到的一些動態。在 CraneCurrency，我們在 2023 年取得了出色的業績，核心銷售額增長了 8%，並透過進一步採用我們的微光學技術。

Now as a reminder, the international business is approximately half of Crane Currency's revenue. And in this business, we added 17 new denominations designed using our micro-optics technology in '23 to bring our total to 150. And this is a 14% growth rate from 2018 when we acquired the business through 2023.

現在提醒一下，國際業務約佔克瑞幣收入的一半。在這項業務中，我們在23 年增加了使用我們的微光學技術設計的17 個新面額，使我們的總數達到150 個。與2018 年我們收購該業務時相比，到2023 年增長率為14%。

Also, we now provide our technology to 48 countries, an increase of approximately 12% year-over-year. The launch of RAPID Vision, the world's first multicolor micro-optics technology has generated significant interest from our international customers and will provide growth opportunities in the years to come as new denominations are currently being designed that specify this technology. And so we ended 2023 with a backlog growth of approximately 26% and this positions us very well for 2024.

此外，我們現在向 48 個國家提供我們的技術，年增約 12%。世界上第一個多色微光學技術 RAPID Vision 的推出引起了我們國際客戶的極大興趣，並將在未來幾年提供成長機會，因為目前正在設計指定該技術的新面額。因此，到 2023 年結束時，我們的積壓訂單成長了約 26%，這為我們在 2024 年的發展奠定了良好的基礎。

Now the other half of revenue from Crane Currency comes from the U.S. government, a very important and long-standing customer. And I want to remind everyone about the work we're doing to prepare for the new U.S. currency program and the impact it will have on the currency business in '24 and beyond. As previously discussed, this is a tremendous long-term tailwind to the business as the U.S. redesigned its bank notes, starting with the $10 note expected to be released to the public in 2026. And this will be followed by a new note every 2 years, culminating with the new $100 bill in 2034.

現在克瑞幣的另一半收入來自美國政府，這是一個非常重要且長期的客戶。我想提醒大家，我們正在為新的美國貨幣計劃做準備，以及它將對 24 世紀及以後的貨幣業務產生影響。正如之前所討論的，這對業務來說是一個巨大的長期推動力，因為美國重新設計了紙幣，預計將於 2026 年向公眾發行 10 美元紙幣。此後每兩年將發行一張新紙幣，最終於2034 年發行新的100 美元鈔票。

This program remains on track and we continue to be very optimistic about our position with the U.S. government as their sole supplier of currency paper, a relationship we've held since 1879. Additionally, we are very optimistic that the U.S. government will continue to be a leader in technology and banknotes, incorporating additional security features in their new designs.

該計劃仍在按計劃進行，我們繼續對我們作為美國政府唯一的紙幣供應商的地位非常樂觀，我們自 1879 年以來一直保持這種關係。此外，我們非常樂觀地認為美國政府將繼續技術和紙幣領域的領導者，在其新設計中融入了額外的安全功能。

Today, only the U.S. $100 bill contains our micro-optics technology. So we see opportunities for additional technology to be incorporated in these new bank notes going forward. As part of this program and in very close coordination with the U.S. Bureau of Engraving and Printing, we stopped production in one of our papermaking facilities in late Q4 2023 for approximately 4 months to complete necessary equipment upgrades to accommodate the new currency technology.

如今，只有 100 美元鈔票包含我們的微光學技術。因此，我們看到未來有機會在這些新鈔票中融入更多技術。作為該計劃的一部分，並與美國雕刻印刷局密切協調，我們於 2023 年第四季度末停止了其中一個造紙設施的生產約 4 個月，以完成必要的設備升級，以適應新的貨幣技術。

As a reminder, we recognize revenue for this business when we produce the paper for the U.S. government. So given the shutdown and our revenue recognition policy, we expect currency sales to be flat year-over-year in the first half of '24. And then gradually increasing throughout the year as we produce products in advance of the next scheduled shutdown to begin in late Q4 of '24.

提醒一下，當我們為美國政府生產報紙時，我們就確認了這項業務的收入。因此，考慮到政府關閉和我們的收入確認政策，我們預計 2024 年上半年的貨幣銷售將同比持平。然後，隨著我們在 24 年第四季末開始的下一次計劃停工之前生產產品，全年產量逐漸增加。

Overall, we're very excited to continue to be a trusted partner with the U.S. government for this very important program and look forward to the future growth that will bring Crane Currency, both with new technology for paper and the opportunities for increased use of micro-optics.

總體而言，我們非常高興能夠繼續成為美國政府這一非常重要的計劃值得信賴的合作夥伴，並期待著克瑞貨幣的未來增長，無論是紙張新技術還是增加使用微型貨幣的機會-光學。

Now moving to Slide 15. In 2024, we expect CPI to grow mid-single digits, excluding the gaming vertical. We see strength in our vending business growing in mid-single digits coming off COVID lows, we also see momentum in the financial services vertical, particularly with our field service business where we continue to expand our offerings and grow recurring revenue.

現在轉到投影片 15。到 2024 年，我們預計 CPI 將成長至個位數（不包括遊戲垂直領域）。我們看到我們的自動販賣機業務的實力在擺脫新冠疫情低點後以中個位數增長，我們也看到金融服務垂直領域的勢頭，特別是我們的現場服務業務，我們繼續擴大我們的產品範圍並增加經常性收入。

And in our retail end market, we're seeing positive momentum from our OEM customers coming out of 2023. As Christina mentioned, we're still seeing slower new orders in gaming as our customers are working down heightened levels of inventory due to the pandemic. We've been in very close communication with these customers and now forecast their inventory positions will return to pre-pandemic levels by the end of Q3.

在我們的零售終端市場，我們看到OEM 客戶在2023 年後出現了積極的勢頭。正如克里斯蒂娜所提到的，我們仍然看到遊戲領域的新訂單放緩，因為我們的客戶正在努力降低因疫情而增加的庫存水準。我們一直與這些客戶保持著非常密切的溝通，現在預測他們的庫存狀況將在第三季末恢復到疫情前的水平。

This will result in gaming orders returning to growth in Q4. The underlying gaming market is healthy and we continue to maintain our strong leadership position in hardware, software and services. Based on the underlying drivers of CPI's end markets, including labor scarcity and the need for increased automation, we continue to believe that our business is well positioned to deliver mid-single-digit growth in the long term as we navigate through the transitory headwinds in gaming.

這將導致第四季度遊戲訂單恢復成長。基礎遊戲市場健康發展，我們持續保持在硬體、軟體和服務方面的強大領導地位。基於消費物價指數終端市場的根本驅動因素，包括勞動力稀缺和提高自動化程度的需求，我們仍然相信，隨著我們克服暫時的逆風，我們的業務處於有利地位，能夠在長期內實現中位數的增長。賭博。

As we look ahead, we're on track to execute our 5-year road map to significantly grow Crane NXT and diversify the portfolio. This includes our continued reinvestment in our core businesses, execution of the Crane business system to drive productivity, simplification and cash conversion, along with disciplined M&A.

展望未來，我們預計將執行 5 年路線圖，以顯著發展 Crane NXT 並實現產品組合多元化。這包括我們對核心業務的持續再投資、執行克瑞業務系統以提高生產力、簡化和現金轉換，以及嚴格的併購。

And in terms of M&A, we believe that the strength of our pipeline and the strategic fit of the targets will enable us to execute on a transaction in 2024 as planned. We are actively cultivating companies with a focus on differentiated technologies and services that secure, detect and authenticate our customers' most valuable assets. These markets are aligned to secular tailwinds that will drive long-term durable growth above mid-single digits and enable us to achieve a ROIC of greater than 10% by year 5, utilizing CBS to drive value. Certainly, more to come in this area, and I look forward to providing an update at the appropriate time.

在併購方面，我們相信我們的管道實力和目標的策略契合度將使我們能夠按計劃在 2024 年執行交易。我們正在積極培育專注於差異化技術和服務的公司，以保護、檢測和驗證客戶最有價值的資產。這些市場與長期的順風車一致，將推動長期持續成長至個位數以上，並使我們能夠利用 CBS 來推動價值，到第 5 年實現超過 10% 的投資回報率 (ROIC)。當然，這個領域還會有更多內容，我期待在適當的時候提供更新。

Moving on to our final page. 2023 was the start of our journey as Crane NXT. We launched the company, delivered on our financial commitments and established a long-term strategy for growth that we believe will drive significant value creation for our shareholders. In 2024, it will be the year we accelerate this strategy, building up the technology leadership in our currency business and investing for the new U.S. banknote series returning to mid-single-digit growth in CPI as we work through inventory normalization with our gaming customers and continuing to drive strong free cash flow conversion, allowing us to increase our dividend while also providing ample liquidity to execute our first M&A transaction.

繼續我們的最後一頁。 2023 年是我們 Crane NXT 旅程的開始。我們成立了公司，兌現了我們的財務承諾，並製定了長期成長策略，我們相信這將為股東創造巨大的價值。到 2024 年，我們將加速這一策略，在我們的貨幣業務中建立技術領先地位，並投資新的美國紙幣系列，隨著我們與遊戲客戶的庫存正常化，CPI 將恢復到中個位數成長並繼續推動強勁的自由現金流轉換，使我們能夠增加股息，同時也提供充足的流動性來執行我們的第一筆併購交易。

Taken together, I'm confident in our ability to achieve our long-term objectives, drive profitable growth and create substantial value for our stakeholders. So thank you again for your time this morning, and we're ready to take our first question.

總而言之，我對我們實現長期目標、推動獲利成長並為利害關係人創造巨大價值的能力充滿信心。再次感謝您今天早上抽出時間，我們準備好回答第一個問題。

(Operator Instructions) Our first questions come from the line of Matt Summerville with D.A. Davidson.

（操作員說明）我們的第一個問題來自 Matt Summerville 和 D.A.戴維森。

With respect to the comments you made regarding kind of the first half, second half weighting, CPI totally makes sense, very intuitive, given the gaming dynamic. Walk through in a little bit more detail that currency dynamic, the shutdown impact. At the end of the day, trying to understand how much of revenue and earnings is likely to be weighted first half, second half and how we should kind of think about that cadence? And then I have a follow-up.

關於您對上半場、下半年權重的評論，考慮到遊戲的動態，CPI 完全有道理，非常直觀。更詳細地了解貨幣動態和關閉影響。歸根結底，試圖了解上半年和下半年可能會加權多少收入和收益，以及我們應該如何考慮這種節奏？然後我有一個後續行動。

Sure. Matt, good to hear your voice. So just centering in on currency. So again, the shutdown in the first half is material for us in the U.S. government business, just again to how we recognize revenue. As I mentioned in the prepared remarks, we recognize that revenue at the time of production. So a shutdown of part of our papermaking operation obviously impacts that. So when you think about currency overall then for the year and to your point on phasing, that's obviously creating a headwind for us in the first half, where we expect currency to be roughly flat and then back to growth in the second half, which when we take that in total, as our guidance suggests, we're in the range of that low single digits for the full year.

當然。馬特，很高興聽到你的聲音。所以只關注貨幣。因此，上半年的停擺對我們美國政府業務來說意義重大，同樣也關係到我們如何確認收入。正如我在準備好的演講中提到的，我們在製作時確認收入。因此，我們部分造紙業務的關閉顯然會影響這一點。因此，當你考慮今年的整體貨幣狀況以及你關於分階段的觀點時，這顯然在上半年給我們帶來了阻力，我們預計貨幣將大致持平，然後在下半年恢復增長，當正如我們的指導意見所示，我們整體認為，全年的成長率處於較低的個位數範圍內。

And then maybe a finer point on -- for CXT overall. How much of the revenue and earnings weight is front half versus back half for you guys?

對於 CXT 整體來說，也許還有一個更好的觀點。對你們來說，前半部和後半部的收入和獲利權重各佔多少？

Yes. I think a simple guide here, it's going to be roughly 40-60, Matt, that's going to be both top line and bottom line.

是的。我認為這裡有一個簡單的指南，大約是 40-60，馬特，這將是頂線和底線。

And then maybe I was wondering if you could maybe elaborate a little bit on what sounds like a pretty sizable, and it's going to carry the backlog, multiyear win you notched in Crane Currency internationally as well as maybe talk a little bit about the number of denominations that may be in the design phase with respect to RAPID Vision.

然後也許我想知道您是否可以詳細說明一下聽起來相當大的金額，它將帶來積壓的訂單，您在國際上以克雷恩貨幣取得的多年勝利，以及可能談論一下數量RAPID Vision 可能處於設計階段的面額。

Great. Well, I'll start, and then maybe Aaron can jump in at the end. So we can't give any specifics on any one customer or amounts there, but there was a multiyear order in Q4 that will have a meaningful impact on the revenue over the next 3 years. And we're really excited about that. The team continues to do great in winning new contracts internationally. So really great job there. And as Aaron said earlier, 17 wins in the year, which really just reflects our leading technology, our ability to deliver what our customers need and our commitment to quality. So just really great all around there. Just in terms of the denominations, so 150 in the portfolio right now, and it's been accelerating over the last few years. So just again, really strong story for the international currency business.

偉大的。好吧，我先開始，然後也許亞倫可以在最後插話。因此，我們無法提供有關任何一位客戶或金額的任何具體信息，但第四季度有一份多年期訂單，這將對未來 3 年的收入產生重大影響。我們對此感到非常興奮。該團隊在國際上繼續贏得新合約方面表現出色。那裡的工作真的很棒。正如 Aaron 早些時候所說，今年有 17 場勝利，這實際上反映了我們領先的技術、我們滿足客戶需求的能力以及我們對品質的承諾。所以那裡真的很棒。就面額而言，目前投資組合中有 150 種面額，並且在過去幾年中一直在加速成長。對於國際貨幣業務來說，這又是一個非常精彩的故事。

Yes. I think it's positive on many fronts, Matt. It's been broad-based. That's, to Christina's point, 14 new denominations. So while we did win a materially significant order in the fourth quarter, that's where you see the backlog growing up to 26% as we exited the year. We've had a lot of wins through the course of the year, and that's where currency in the international business really exceeded our expectations, particularly as we exited the year.

是的。我認為這在很多方面都是積極的，馬特。它的基礎廣泛。在克里斯蒂娜看來，這就是 14 個新教派。因此，雖然我們確實在第四季度贏得了一筆重大訂單，但在今年結束時，您會看到積壓訂單增加了 26%。在這一年中，我們取得了許多勝利，這就是國際業務中的貨幣真正超出我們預期的地方，特別是在我們結束這一年的時候。

I think RAPID Vision is just an outstanding story for us. It talks to our technology leadership, the continued evolution of this portfolio. And when we think about new currencies getting designed with the technology, just a reminder that I know, you know and many others that it takes several months to years to go through the design process for new currencies. So that started for us adding slightly before the launch of the product. We have a few central banks evaluating that technology and looking to potentially design it in to their next currency. And obviously, we have to wait and let them announce that at the appropriate time. But again, that design to launch period is months to years, depending on a particular central bank.

我認為 RAPID Vision 對我們來說只是一個出色的故事。它體現了我們的技術領先地位以及該產品組合的持續發展。當我們考慮利用該技術設計新貨幣時，請提醒我，你知道以及許多其他人，新貨幣的設計過程需要幾個月到幾年的時間。因此，我們在產品發布之前就開始稍微添加一些內容。我們有一些央行正在評估該技術，並希望將其設計到他們的下一種貨幣中。顯然，我們必須等待，讓他們在適當的時候宣布這一點。但同樣，該設計的啟動週期為數月至數年，具體取決於特定央行。

Our next questions come from the line of Damian Karas with UBS.

我們的下一個問題來自瑞銀集團的達米安·卡拉斯 (Damian Karas)。

I have a follow-up question on currency. You talked about nice momentum in international and potential upside to your guidance. Could you tell us what is the kind of like year-over-year growth that you have baked into your guidance for the international currency business?

我有一個關於貨幣的後續問題。您談到了國際市場的良好勢頭以及您的指導的潛在上行空間。您能否告訴我們您在國際貨幣業務指導中所考慮的同比增長情況是怎樣的？

Yes, I'll take that one. So it's mid-single-digit growth for international and really just based on the high visibility we have into our pipeline. So we feel very confident about delivering on that this year. Now remember, this is a project-based business and the timing of our shipments impacts our revenue recognition. So that could vary. But overall, based on our pipeline, we feel confident in mid-single digits.

是的，我會接受那個。因此，國際上的成長是中等個位數，而且實際上只是基於我們對管道的高度關注。因此，我們對今年實現這一目標非常有信心。現在請記住，這是一項基於專案的業務，我們的發貨時間會影響我們的收入確認。所以這可能會有所不同。但總體而言，根據我們的管道，我們對中個位數充滿信心。

Okay. That's really helpful. And then just looking at the overall company guidance, flat to up slightly sales is your expectation for the year. The margin guide kind of at the midpoint may be down modestly versus where you were in 2023. Is there a way you could maybe just give us a bridge or a way to think about these various headwinds and tailwinds, thinking about the productivity, price and then the mix impacts anything else?

好的。這真的很有幫助。然後只要看看公司的整體指導，您對今年的預期銷售額將持平或略有上升。與 2023 年的水平相比，中點的利潤率指導可能會略有下降。有沒有一種方法可以為我們提供一個橋樑或方法來思考這些不同的逆風和順風，思考生產力、價格和那麼混合會影響其他什麼嗎？

Yes. Sure, Damian. Let me take few moments on that and Christina can add in as well. Again, I think when -- as I said in my remarks a few minutes ago, we believe the full year guidance is appropriately risk-adjusted and we're very confident with that. And I think the way you asked the question is appropriate, if you got to break down the analysis into some of the constituent parts. So when I think of the currency business, as Christina just mentioned, we're looking at mid-single-digit growth there. Again, the margin rate of that business a little bit less. So that creates a natural mix headwind inside of currency alluding to the question you've raised.

是的。當然，達米安。讓我花點時間談談這個問題，克里斯蒂娜也可以補充一下。再次，我認為，正如我在幾分鐘前的演講中所說，我們相信全年指引經過了適當的風險調整，我們對此非常有信心。如果您必須將分析分解為一些組成部分，我認為您提出問題的方式是合適的。因此，當我想到貨幣業務時，正如克里斯蒂娜剛才提到的，我們正在尋找中個位數的成長。同樣，該業務的利潤率有點低。因此，這在貨幣內部產生了自然的混合逆風，暗指您提出的問題。

So you can think of it as just as international is growing at mid-single digits. There's a mix down effect naturally in currency, where the U.S. government given the shutdown and what we see in terms of their volume forecast, we're assuming that we have flat volumes in a similar mix that we had last year in terms of the denominations. So that's really the story in currency. Again, long term on the U.S. government as we exit '24 and get to the launch of '26, a fantastic story for the business.

因此，您可以將其視為國際業務正在以中個位數成長。貨幣自然存在混合下降效應，考慮到美國政府關閉以及我們所看到的交易量預測，我們假設我們的面額組合與去年類似，持平。這就是貨幣的真正故事。再次強調，隨著我們退出「24」並進入「26」的推出，美國政府的長期發展對企業來說是一個奇妙的故事。

Now in CPI, as I mentioned, we expect all parts of the portfolio ex gaming in aggregate to be growing to mid-single digits. Now again, gaming, with that said, is typically a higher-margin part of our portfolio. So we do have a mix headwind there, and that's what's really driving the margin question that you alluded to and the range we've set in the guidance. But again, we see gaming with the visibility we have into our customers with a lot of confidence that the natural inventory burn down is going to complete the cycle in Q3, orders return back, and we exit at mid-single-digit growth in gaming, which should give us some improvements as we look ahead into '25.

現在，正如我所提到的，我們預計投資組合中除遊戲之外的所有部分的總體消費價格指數將增長至中個位數。話雖如此，遊戲通常是我們投資組合中利潤率較高的部分。因此，我們確實面臨著混合逆風，這才是真正推動您提到的利潤率問題以及我們在指南中設定的範圍的原因。但我們再次看到遊戲產業，我們對客戶的可見度非常有信心，自然庫存消耗將在第三季度完成周期，訂單回歸，我們退出遊戲產業實現中個位數成長，當我們展望'25 時，這應該會為我們帶來一些改進。

So that's really the mix. I would just reiterate to the question Matt asked that because of these phenomena with the U.S. government and gaming in 2024, the phasing of our revenue will be a little bit different than we normally see in the company. And again, I think that 40-60 is a good high-level guide. So hopefully, that helps, Damian.

這就是真正的混合。我只想重申 Matt 提出的問題，由於 2024 年美國政府和遊戲領域的這些現象，我們的收入階段將與我們通常在公司看到的有所不同。再說一次，我認為 40-60 是一個很好的高級指南。希望這會有所幫助，達米安。

Our next questions come from the line of Bob Labick with CJS Securities.

我們的下一個問題來自 CJS 證券的 Bob Labick。

Congratulations on a great year and quarter.

恭喜您度過了美好的一年和季度。

Thanks, Bob.

謝謝，鮑伯。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Yes. I wanted to just follow up on, I guess, your last comment there, Aaron, because you mentioned visibility in gaming. Could you just talk about -- I feel like CPI has played out exactly as you've said, to this point, and obviously, coming down off of higher backlogs from COVID supply chain disruptions and whatnot. So maybe just talk about your relationships in gaming and in retail and the visibility that you have to the underlying demand and the inventory corrections and that gives you the confidence that we should see resumed growth in the back half of this year.

是的。我想我想跟進你最後的評論，亞倫，因為你提到了遊戲中的可見性。您能否談談——我覺得消費者物價指數（CPI）的表現與您所說的完全一樣，到目前為止，顯然，由於新冠肺炎供應鏈中斷等原因，積壓的情況有所下降。因此，也許只需談談您在遊戲和零售方面的關係，以及您對潛在需求和庫存調整的了解，這讓您有信心我們應該在今年下半年看到恢復成長。

Sure, Bob. In gaming, why don't I again break these down as you've asked the question market by market because there are some important differences. Gaming, again, I'd say from a forecast perspective or an outlook, we believe this is appropriately risk-adjusted again, so that we can continue to do exactly what we say we're going to do each quarter and through the course of '24.

當然，鮑伯。在遊戲領域，我為什麼不像您逐個市場地提出問題一樣再次將它們分解，因為存在一些重要的差異。再次，我想說，從預測的角度或前景來看，我們相信這再次進行了適當的風險調整，以便我們能夠繼續按照我們所說的每個季度和整個過程進行。 '24。

I want to bring it back at least to the gaming market, which is an important part here of our thesis, which is it's very healthy. Casinos continue to be healthy and our OEM customers continue to be healthy. We see this as a market that's growing even in '24, anywhere between low single digit to mid-single digit plus, highly dependent on the geography. And of course, we service a global market. So that gives us a lot of confidence that this underlying market is healthy, and we see that in both, again, the casinos all the way through the OEMs.

我想至少將其帶回遊戲市場，這是我們論文的重要組成部分，它非常健康。賭場繼續健康發展，我們的 OEM 客戶也繼續健康發展。我們認為這個市場即使在 24 年也在成長，成長幅度介於低個位數到中個位數以上之間，高度依賴地理位置。當然，我們服務全球市場。因此，這給了我們很大的信心，相信這個基礎市場是健康的，我們在賭場和原始設備製造商中都看到了這一點。

Now we've also done a lot of channel checking, Bob, as you can imagine, and we are very confident we're maintaining strong market share, both in our hardware, software and services offering. Just as a reminder, we had a major competitor that lacked certifications and was largely out of this market in '22 and for a good part of '23. They're back in the market, but I think as a testament to our team at CPI, we gained market share through this period. And so we have a very sticky customer base and a higher set of installations on the floors of these casinos. So again, we feel confident in our market position.

現在我們也進行了大量的通路檢查，鮑勃，正如你可以想像的那樣，我們非常有信心在我們的硬體、軟體和服務產品方面保持強大的市場份額。提醒一下，我們有一個主要競爭對手缺乏認證，並且在 22 年和 23 年的大部分時間裡基本上都退出了這個市場。他們回到了市場，但我認為，作為對我們 CPI 團隊的證明，我們在此期間獲得了市場份額。因此，我們擁有非常黏性的客戶群，並且在這些賭場的樓層上安裝了更多的設備。因此，我們對我們的市場地位再次充滿信心。

Now when it gets into the visibility to our customers' inventory, we spent a lot of work here, both in December and January, reassessing as we exited the year and as customers have started the new year on what their order forecasts are going to be. We sell the vast majority of our equipment through OEMs. And there's only a few OEMs globally at scale. So it's a short list of customers that we have very close relationships with. And that allows us to get very deep into their inventory levels, customer by customer. And that's where I'd say on average, we see 6 months of inventory above the normal holding that they would ascribe to.

現在，當我們了解客戶的庫存時，我們在 12 月和 1 月在這裡花費了大量的工作，在年底和客戶開始新的一年時重新評估他們的訂單預測。 。我們的絕大多數設備都是透過 OEM 銷售的。全球範圍內只有少數原始設備製造商具有規模。這是一個與我們有著非常密切關係的客戶的簡短名單。這使我們能夠深入了解每個客戶的庫存水準。這就是我想說的，平均而言，我們看到 6 個月的庫存高於他們所認為的正常持有量。

So again, I think we have a very good visibility into that and knowing their order rates and their forecast for the year, how they're going to draw down that inventory, that's what gives us confidence that we're going to see a return to order rates as we get into Q4 and exit the year back in a mid-single-digit growth dynamic in gaming. So Bob, I'll pause there on gaming, and then I'm happy to talk retail as well.

所以，我認為我們對此有很好的了解，了解他們的訂單率和今年的預測，他們將如何減少庫存，這讓我們有信心看到回報當我們進入第四季度並以中個位數增長動力退出今年時，我們將確定利率。鮑勃，我將在這裡暫停一下遊戲，然後我也很高興談論零售業。

Yes. Perfect.

是的。完美的。

Yes, let me go to that. I think retail is a different market, but a dynamic where we're seeing improvements as we exited last year and as we're already starting off here in 2024. Again, I'd go back to the thesis on the underlying market, which we see is very healthy, driven by our customers needing increased automation and still battling issues with labor scarcity. And so we don't think those change in the next months or years ahead, and that gives a tailwind to this market.

是的，讓我來說說。我認為零售是一個不同的市場，但隨著我們去年退出以及我們已經在 2024 年開始，我們在動態中看到了進步。再次，我想回到關於基礎市場的論文，我們認為這是非常健康的，這是由我們的客戶需要提高自動化程度和仍在解決勞動力短缺問題所推動的。因此，我們認為這些在未來幾個月或幾年內不會發生變化，這為這個市場帶來了推動力。

And when you put that in context, right, '23 had a few items that are not repeatable that we expect will play out in '24. It starts with our OEM business, which was softer than we expected in '23. But remember, some of these OEMs were going through their own transitions, very significant transitions in '23, managing cost and inventory. And we see improvement already in that OEM business as we start '24, and it's meeting our expectations. We also saw some pushout of projects in the second half, and in discussions with customers, we believe and have confidence those are going to be coming back in '24. So I think a different dynamic for us in the retail market in and already meeting our expectations as we start the year, and that gives us confidence in this outlook.

當你把它放在上下文中時，對吧，'23 有一些不可重複的項目，我們預計將在 '24 中發揮作用。首先是我們的 OEM 業務，該業務比我們 23 年預期的要疲軟。但請記住，其中一些 OEM 正在經歷自己的轉型，這是 23 年非常重要的轉型，管理成本和庫存。從 2020 年開始，我們看到 OEM 業務已經有所改善，並且滿足了我們的預期。我們也看到下半年推出了一些項目，在與客戶的討論中，我們相信並有信心這些項目將在 24 年回歸。因此，我認為零售市場的動態有所不同，並且在年初時已經達到了我們的預期，這讓我們對這一前景充滿信心。

Okay. Super. And then shifting gears and jumping over to currency. Just you gave us good color on how this year is going to play out. But maybe just in general, if you could talk about because you kind of have this decade of visibility, how does the rollout of the catalyst series play out for you? What will the cycle there be like shutdown -- when do revenues benefit from the enhanced security or whatever we think it's going to be and shut down every year, then boost in revenue. Has it become a little bit more cyclical as it comes out? How should we think about it?

好的。極好的。然後轉向貨幣。你給了我們關於今年將如何發展的良好資訊。但也許只是一般而言，如果你能談談，因為你有這十年的知名度，催化劑系列的推出對你來說效果如何？關閉會是什麼樣的循環——收入何時會從增強的安全性中受益，或者我們認為每年都會關閉，然後收入增加。它的出現是否變得更具週期性？我們該如何思考呢？

Yes. Thanks, Bob. I think we're on the early stages here of this. As you said, it's a decade-plus program, right? It's going to take 10 years just to launch the new bills. But we've been already actively working on it, as you know, with the BEP. So '24 has this, again, very well planned set of shutdowns that we've been planning for with the BEP for well over a year. We're in the middle of one now, and we'll institute the next one at the end of the fourth quarter, again, just to allow both us and the BEP time to make their necessary upgrades and our upgrades, qualify the new product coming off of that papermaking equipment. And of course, in Q2 through 3Q produce the product that they need to satisfy their demand. So that's going as expected, on track, on target, on budget.

是的。謝謝，鮑伯。我認為我們正處於早期階段。正如你所說，這是一個十多年的計劃，對嗎？光是推出新法案就需要10年的時間。但正如您所知，我們已經在與 BEP 積極合作。因此，24 年，我們再次與 BEP 計劃了一年多來計劃的一系列關閉。我們現在正處於其中一個階段，我們將在第四季末再次啟動下一個階段，只是為了讓我們和 BEP 有時間進行必要的升級，我們的升級，使新產品合格從造紙設備上下來。當然，在第二季到第三季生產他們需要的產品來滿足他們的需求。因此，一切都如預期進行，按計劃、按目標、按預算進行。

What that means for '24, as I alluded to earlier, is a headwind, particularly in the first half of the year and that will moderate. And then again, we'll have a shutdown likely in the latter part of Q4. We don't really see the benefit then, Bob, of the new series until we get into production, full production of that product. And that first one is the $10 that goes into public circulation sometime in 2026. So I think I would frame it and model it as we start to see assuming, again, increased technology density on those bills and uplift in margins that starts to occur more in the '26 time frame.

正如我之前提到的，這對 24 世紀來說意味著逆風，特別是在今年上半年，而這種逆風將會減弱。再說一次，我們可能會在第四季下半年關閉。鮑勃，在我們投入生產、全面生產該產品之前，我們並沒有真正看到新系列的好處。第一個是2026 年某個時候進入公共流通的10 美元。所以我想我會對其進行框架和建模，因為我們開始再次假設這些鈔票的技術密度增加，並且利潤率開始出現更多的提升。在26年的時間範圍內。

Again, we can't, and we're in no position now to announce any significant announcements on the design of the currency. That's left to the U.S. Department of Treasury to make those announcements and they'll do that at the appropriate time. But I think if you go back to that slide that I referenced earlier in the presentation, today, only the U.S. $100 bill has our leading micro-optics technology, and we believe that's an opportunity as each of these new bills gets introduced to increase generally all types of new technology on the U.S. government notes. And so I wouldn't think that this is modeled then episodically, as I think the term you used, but more continuously as new bills get released, we naturally mix up the business starting in '26 through '34.

再說一遍，我們不能，而且我們現在也無法宣布任何有關貨幣設計的重大公告。美國財政部將在適當的時候宣布這些消息。但我認為，如果您回到我在簡報中之前提到的那張幻燈片，今天只有100 美元鈔票擁有我們領先的微光學技術，我們相信這是一個機會，因為每張新鈔票的推出都會普遍增加美國政府注意到的所有類型的新技術。因此，我不認為這是偶然建模的，正如我認為您使用的術語一樣，但隨著新法案的發布，我們自然會混合從 26 年到 34 年開始的業務。

Our next questions come from the line of Ian Zaffino with Oppenheimer.

我們的下一個問題來自伊恩·扎菲諾（Ian Zaffino）和奧本海默（Oppenheimer）的對話。

This is Isaac Sellhausen on for Ian. The first is on CPI and the guidance. I'm not sure how detailed you can get. But maybe if you could just talk about CPI core sales growth and what guidance assumes as far as volume and price mix? And then maybe just a broader discussion on pricing in general and how you think about that through the year?

我是艾薩克·塞爾豪森 (Isaac Sellhausen)，替補伊恩 (Ian)。首先是關於CPI和指導。我不確定你能得到多詳細的資訊。但也許您能談談 CPI 核心銷售成長以及銷售和價格組合的指導假設是什麼？然後也許只是對總體定價進行更廣泛的討論，以及您在這一年中如何看待這個問題？

Yes. Well, I'll just start at the end of your question in terms of pricing. Our teams do such a great job here, Isaac, and we are continuing to more than offset costs with pricing. And that's really just based on our great business system, Crane business system and the operating discipline that our teams have. So really great job there, and we expect that to continue.

是的。好吧，我將從定價問題的末尾開始。艾薩克，我們的團隊在這裡做得非常出色，我們將繼續透過定價來抵消成本。這其實只是基於我們出色的業務系統、克瑞業務系統和我們團隊的營運紀律。那裡的工作非常出色，我們希望這種情況能夠持續下去。

In terms of the CPI verticals, just looking ahead in our guidance, we're assuming mid-single-digit growth in all the verticals outside of gaming. So as Aaron said, the underlying markets are healthy, and we're expecting to see continued strength. We have some tough comparisons in some of the markets. But overall, feeling very confident. And gaming, as we said, by Q4, should return to mid-single-digit growth once our major OEM customers primarily work through their inventory levels, which we expect to start happening in Q2.

就 CPI 垂直產業而言，在我們的指導中展望未來，我們假設遊戲以外的所有垂直產業都將出現中個位數成長。正如亞倫所說，基礎市場是健康的，我們預計會繼續走強。我們在一些市場進行了一些艱難的比較。但整體來說，感覺非常自信。正如我們所說，一旦我們的主要 OEM 客戶主要解決其庫存水準（我們預計這將在第二季度開始發生），到第四季度，遊戲應該會恢復到中個位數成長。

Okay. Great. And then just as a follow-up on currency. Could you touch on the product authentication business and maybe trends you're seeing within that market. You mentioned the M&A sales pipeline and have previously expressed interest in expanding within product authentication. So maybe any higher-level comments on potential M&A targets?

好的。偉大的。然後作為貨幣的後續行動。您能否談談產品認證業務以及您在該市場中看到的趨勢。您提到了併購銷售管道，之前曾表示有興趣擴大產品認證範圍。那麼高層是否對潛在的併購目標有任何評論？

Yes. Thanks, Isaac. I really appreciate that question. So we continue to be very optimistic and confident in the position we have in product authentication. We see that as a market in general that's growing at mid-single-digit plus. And it's very global in its growth rate. And we think those core drivers of the need for more anti-counterfeiting protection, whether that's in physical products or digital products, will continue for the foreseeable future. I think that's, as we'd say, a pretty straightforward got to believe in this market.

是的。謝謝，艾薩克。我真的很感激這個問題。因此，我們對我們在產品認證方面的地位仍然非常樂觀和充滿信心。我們認為這個市場整體上以中個位數以上的速度成長。而且其成長率非常全球化。我們認為，在可預見的未來，無論是實體產品還是數位產品，這些需要更多防偽保護的核心驅動因素將持續存在。正如我們所說，我認為這是對這個市場的一個非常簡單的信任。

In terms of our own business, again, we continue to win new accounts leading with our micro-optics technology. But with that said, and to the question you raised, we really see M&A in this area as an accelerator of our strategy, where we can leverage our very strong technology leadership in the physical products with other capabilities that grow Crane NXT. So as I mentioned in my prepared remarks, our pipeline has grown significantly over the last year. It's matured also in terms of where we're at in that cultivation status. And we feel very confident and on track as we exit '23 that we will be in a position to announce our first acquisition in 2024.

就我們自己的業務而言，我們再次憑藉微光學技術繼續贏得新客戶。但話雖如此，對於您提出的問題，我們確實認為該領域的併購是我們策略的加速器，我們可以利用我們在實體產品方面非常強大的技術領先地位以及其他能力來發展 Crane NXT。正如我在準備好的發言中提到的，我們的管道在過去一年中顯著增長。從我們現在的修練狀態來看，它也已經成熟了。當我們退出 '23 時，我們非常有信心併步入正軌，我們將有能力在 2024 年宣布我們的首次收購。

As I've said many times, that first acquisition is more important than any. We want to make sure it's on strategy, focused on secure detect and authenticate. We want to make sure we're good owners of the business, and we can add value, particularly through the deployment of CBS and we want to generate a strong return. And nothing has changed there from what I've said over the last several quarters. That's a double-digit ROIC by year 5. And making sure we're maintaining our leverage below 3 or if above 3, we're able to draw that down very, very quickly based on our strong free cash flow. So again, feel on track and very confident we're in a good position as we head into '24.

正如我多次說過的，第一次收購比任何收購都更重要。我們希望確保它符合策略，專注於安全檢測和身份驗證。我們希望確保我們是業務的良好所有者，並且我們可以增加價值，特別是透過部署 CBS，並且我們希望產生豐厚的回報。與我過去幾季所說的相比，一切都沒有改變。到第 5 年，投資回報率將達到兩位數。確保我們的槓桿率保持在 3 以下，如果高於 3，我們就能夠根據我們強勁的自由現金流非常非常快地降低槓桿率。再說一遍，感覺一切都步入正軌，並且非常有信心在進入 24 年後我們處於有利位置。

Our next questions come from the line of Damian Karas with UBS. Damian, could you check if you're muted, please?

我們的下一個問題來自瑞銀集團的達米安·卡拉斯 (Damian Karas)。 Damian，你能檢查一下你是否被靜音了嗎？

Yes, I'm sorry, I was muted. I got a few follow-up questions. First, I just want to make sure I heard correctly. Did you say that you are expecting the currency business to be kind of flat in the first half of the year and then you get some pickup in the back half? Or did I mishear you there?

是的，對不起，我被靜音了。我有一些後續問題。首先，我只是想確保我聽對了。您是否說過，您預計上半年貨幣業務將持平，然後下半年會回升？還是我聽錯了？

No, that's directionally correct, Damian. That's -- I'd say mid-single-digit growth, as Christina alluded to in the international business, but then the headwind in the first half due to the shutdown from the U.S. government.

不，方向是正確的，達米安。我想說的是，正如克里斯蒂娜在國際業務中提到的那樣，實現了中等個位數的增長，但由於美國政府關門，上半年出現了逆風。

Okay. All right. So then I guess I'm just trying to piece together kind of like that 40-60 first half, second half, which would I guess, more or less suggest like 15% to 20% decline year-over-year in the first half and then you kind of get this step back in the second half. if I'm interpreting correctly then, so then it seems like kind of like the destocking and CPI is expected to be significantly worse kind of at the outset of the year and then really snaps back in the back half?

好的。好的。所以我想我只是想把上半場和下半年的 40-60 拼湊起來，我猜或多或少表明上半年同比下降了 15% 到 20%然後你會在下半場後退一步。如果我的理解正確的話，那麼看起來有點像去庫存和 CPI 預計會在今年年初明顯惡化，然後在下半年真正回升？

I think you have that right. Exactly, Damian. We're going to hit tougher comps year-over-year in the first half on CPI, where gaming was still at a very elevated level in the first half of last year. So your logic there is correct.

我認為你有這個權利。沒錯，達米安。我們將在上半年的消費者物價指數 (CPI) 上實現更嚴格的比較，去年上半年遊戲仍處於非常高的水平。所以你的邏輯是正確的。

Okay. I appreciate you clarifying that. And then sorry, if I -- if you guys alluded to this earlier, but I was just curious thinking about the denomination redesign cycle here in the U.S. When do you think you might have a better sense whether the $10 redesign will involve micro-optics?

好的。我很感謝你澄清這一點。然後抱歉，如果我 - 如果你們早些時候提到過這一點，但我只是好奇地思考美國的面額重新設計週期。您認為您何時可以更好地了解 10 美元的重新設計是否會涉及微光學？

I would answer that, that we feel very confident in our long-standing relationship with the BEP. But as I said before, we're not going to be in any position to comment on the new redesign until after the treasury has announced that redesign. And I would expect that will come sometime in late '25. Again, that's more their time line than ours on the announcement. But I think you can appreciate we can't comment on that until it's actually announced by the U.S. government.

我的回答是，我們對與 BEP 的長期關係非常有信心。但正如我之前所說，在財政部宣布重新設計之前，我們不會對新的重新設計發表評論。我預計這將在 25 年末的某個時候實現。再說一遍，他們的時間線比我們的公告時間線還要長。但我想你會明白，在美國政府實際宣布之前，我們無法對此發表評論。

Our final questions will come from the line of Matt Summerville with D.A. Davidson.

我們的最後一個問題將來自馬特·薩默維爾 (Matt Summerville) 和 D.A.戴維森。

Yes. You sort of answered it with respect to the prior questions, but I wanted to just put a finer point on it. I mean, CPI organic is going to be down based on what you said very substantially in the first half of the year. How should we think about margins in that context? How bad will this business delever? And are you doing anything in the near term to adjust the cost structure in that business. I just want to make sure I'm not taking this -- getting over my skis in my assumptions. But CPI is going to kind of get hammered if lack of a better word there.

是的。您已經回答了先前的問題，但我想對此提出更具體的觀點。我的意思是，根據你所說的上半年的情況，有機消費物價指數將會大幅下降。在這種情況下我們該如何考慮利潤率？這項業務的去槓桿化會有多糟？您近期是否會採取任何措施來調整該業務的成本結構？我只是想確保我不會接受這個——超越我的假設。但如果沒有更好的詞彙來形容，CPI 將會受到重創。

Well, I think look at the balance of it too, Matt. I think directionally, we're going to have a tough comp in these headwinds on orders in gaming. That's roughly 25% of the portfolio offset by the other 75% that's still growing at roughly mid-single digits. So that's the balance of the math. Now I would tell you the first half of CPI, when you put that and balance it together, probably isn't quite as you alluded to. And then, of course, the second half, we come out back on track with this mid-single-digit growth for the second half of the year. I think you can rest assured, and I think it's true to our culture and how we've operated the business and we're obviously taking actions and we've already taken some of those actions to fortify the margins of the business so that, of course, we maintain a good, healthy cost discipline and we invest as we grow, and we've adjusted some of the cost structure of CPI to reflect these headwinds. So certainly, I wouldn't think it's quite as drastic as maybe you're thinking.

嗯，我想也要看看它的平衡，馬特。我認為，從方向上講，我們將在遊戲訂單的這些逆風中擁有艱難的競爭。這大約佔投資組合的 25%，被另外 75% 的投資組合所抵消，而其餘 75% 的投資組合仍在以大約中個位數的速度增長。這就是數學的平衡。現在我想告訴你，上半年的消費者物價指數，當你把它放在一起平衡時，可能不會完全像你提到的那樣。當然，到了下半年，我們又回到了正軌，實現了下半年的中個位數成長。我認為您可以放心，我認為這符合我們的文化以及我們經營業務的方式，我們顯然正在採取行動，並且我們已經採取了其中一些行動來提高業務利潤率，以便，當然，我們保持良好、健康的成本紀律，並在成長時進行投資，並且我們調整了CPI 的部分成本結構以反映這些不利因素。所以當然，我認為這不會像你想像的那麼激烈。

There are no further questions at this time. I would now like to hand the call back over to Aaron Saak for closing remarks.

目前沒有其他問題。現在我想將電話交還給亞倫·薩克 (Aaron Saak) 進行總結發言。

All right. Thank you, operator. Well, it's hard to believe, but we are just 50 days away from the first anniversary of the launch of Crane NXT. It's a year that is flown by and been filled with enormous accomplishments by our team. And so I want to again thank all the NXT team members from across the world for their hard work in '23 to make the launch of Crane NXT so successful. And I am extremely confident that 2024 will be an equally exciting year for the company as we start our second year as a public company. So thank you again to everyone who joined us today for your questions, and I hope you all have a great rest of your week.

好的。謝謝你，接線生。嗯，這令人難以置信，距離 Crane NXT 推出一週年紀念日僅剩 50 天了。這是我們團隊度過並取得巨大成就的一年。因此，我要再次感謝來自世界各地的所有 NXT 團隊成員在 23 年的辛勤工作，使 Crane NXT 的推出如此成功。我非常有信心，2024 年對公司來說將是同樣令人興奮的一年，因為我們將開始成為上市公司的第二年。再次感謝今天加入我們提出問題的所有人，希望大家有個愉快的一週。

Thank you. That does conclude today's teleconference. We appreciate your participation. You may disconnect at this time. Enjoy the rest of your day.

謝謝。今天的電話會議到此結束。我們感謝您的參與。此時您可以斷開連線。享受你一天剩下的時間。