Camping World Holdings Inc (CWH) 2023 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Good morning, and welcome to Camping World Holdings conference call to discuss financial results for the fourth quarter and year ended December 31, 2023. (Operator Instructions). Later, we will conduct a question-and-answer session and instructions will follow at that time. Please be advised that this call is being recorded and the reproduction of the call in whole or in part is not permitted without written authorization from the company.

早安，歡迎參加 Camping World Holdings 電話會議，討論截至 2023 年 12 月 31 日的第四季度和年度財務業績。（運營商說明）。稍後，我們將進行問答環節，屆時將給予說明。請注意，本次通話正在錄音，未經本公司書面授權，不得複製全部或部分通話內容。

Joining on the call today are Marcus Lemonis, Chairman and Chief Executive Officer; Brent Moody, President; Karin Bell, Chief Financial Officer; Matthew Wagner, Chief Operating Officer; Lindsey Christen, Chief Administrative and Legal Officer; Tom Kim, Chief Accounting Officer; and Brett Andres, Senior Vice President, Investor Relations.

今天參加電話會議的還有董事長兼執行長馬庫斯‧萊莫尼斯 (Marcus Lemonis)；布倫特·穆迪，總裁；卡琳·貝爾，財務長；馬修·瓦格納，營運長； Lindsey Christen，首席行政和法律官；湯姆金 (Tom Kim)，首席會計官；以及投資者關係高級副總裁 Brett Andres。

I will turn the call over to Ms. Christen to get us started.

我會將電話轉給克里斯汀女士，讓我們開始。

Thank you, and good morning, everyone. A press release covering the company's fourth quarter and year ended December 31, 2023 financial results was issued yesterday afternoon, and a copy of that press release can be found in the Investor Relations section on the company's website.

謝謝大家，大家早安。昨天下午發布了一份新聞稿，涵蓋該公司截至 2023 年 12 月 31 日的第四季度和年度財務業績，該新聞稿的副本可以在該公司網站的投資者關係部分找到。

Management's remarks on this call may contain forward-looking statements within the meaning of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. These remarks may include statements regarding our business plans and goals, industry and customer trends, inventory expectations, the expected impact of inflation, interest rates and market conditions, acquisition pipeline and plans, future dividend payments and capital allocation and anticipated financial performance.

管理階層在本次電話會議上的言論可能包含1995 年《私人證券訴訟改革法案》含義內的前瞻性陳述。這些言論可能包括有關我們的業務計劃和目標、行業和客戶趨勢、庫存預期、通貨膨脹的預期影響、利率和市場狀況、收購管道和計劃、未來股息支付和資本配置以及預期財務表現。

Actual results may differ materially from those indicated by these statements as a result of various important factors, including those discussed in the Risk Factors section in our Form 10-K, our Form 10-Qs and other reports on file with the SEC. Any forward-looking statements represent our views only as of today and we undertake no obligation to update them.

由於各種重要因素，包括我們的表格 10-K、表格 10-Q 和 SEC 存檔的其他報告的風險因素部分中討論的因素，實際結果可能與這些聲明中所示的結果存在重大差異。任何前瞻性陳述僅代表我們截至今天的觀點，我們不承擔更新這些陳述的義務。

Please also note that we will be referring to certain non-GAAP financial measures on today's call, such as EBITDA, adjusted EBITDA and adjusted earnings per share diluted, which we believe may be important to investors to assess our operating performance. Reconciliations of these non-GAAP financial measures to the most directly comparable GAAP financial statements are included in our earnings release and on our website. All comparisons of our 2023 fourth quarter and fiscal year results are made against the 2022 fourth quarter and fiscal year results unless otherwise noted. I'll now turn the call over to Marcus.

另請注意，我們將在今天的電話會議上提及某些非公認會計準則財務指標，例如EBITDA、調整後EBITDA 和調整後攤薄每股收益，我們認為這對於投資者評估我們的經營業績可能很重要。這些非 GAAP 財務指標與最直接可比較的 GAAP 財務報表的調整表包含在我們的收益發布和我們的網站上。除非另有說明，我們 2023 年第四季和財年業績的所有比較均是與 2022 年第四季和財年業績進行的。我現在將把電話轉給馬庫斯。

Good morning, and welcome to the first call of 2024. I got to be honest, I'm glad '23 is over. On today's call, the team will cover both the operational and financial highlights from 2023, while providing an exciting outlook for 2024 and beyond.

早安，歡迎來到 2024 年的第一通電話。說實話，我很高興「23」已經結束了。在今天的電話會議上，該團隊將涵蓋 2023 年的營運和財務亮點，同時提供 2024 年及以後的令人興奮的前景。

As the state of the union for 2023, there's really one key message that prevails. We believe our industry has seen the bottom of new RV sales and results and are seeing positive indicators that the next several years will produce growth in revenue, unit sales, overall gross profit and sequentially an improving bottom line for our company. We expect to deliver 30% plus EBITDA compared to 2023.

作為 2023 年國情咨文，確實有一個關鍵訊息得到了普遍認同。我們相信，我們的行業已經看到了新房車銷售和業績的底部，並且看到了積極的跡象，表明未來幾年將帶來收入、單位銷售、整體毛利的增長，以及我們公司利潤的不斷改善。與 2023 年相比，我們預計 EBITDA 將成長 30%。

As we worked internally through the back half of last year in an effort to raise our profitability in '24, we identified 3 key factors needing to be accomplished to achieve our 2024 earnings goals. We needed to eliminate age model year units, renegotiate model year '24 pricing and subsequently adjust our used position and values resulting from the revised new model year pricing on '24s. The execution of this strategy puts us well ahead of our competitors and drives market share growth going forward.

去年下半年，我們在內部努力提高 24 年的獲利能力，我們確定了實現 2024 年獲利目標所需實現的 3 個關鍵因素。我們需要消除年齡型號年份單位，重新協商型號年份 '24 的定價，並隨後調整我們使用的位置和值，這些值是根據修訂後的新型號年份定價產生的 '24 年代的價格。這項策略的執行使我們遠遠領先於競爭對手，並推動未來市場佔有率的成長。

As we discussed on our last call, we will have completed the bulk of this by the end of Q1 with our adjustments [on used] driving the bulk of our current period. We elected to temporarily slow down used acquisitions to allow for market pricing to resolve before reinvesting our cash.

正如我們在上次電話會議中討論的那樣，我們將在第一季末完成大部分工作，並透過我們的調整（對已使用的）推動當前期間的大部分工作。我們選擇暫時放慢二手收購的速度，以便在重新投資我們的現金之前解決市場定價問題。

While we work through the inventory -- while working through the inventory was our primary focus, we must recognize the Good Sam business, which delivered record earnings over $100 million for the first time and continues to show stability in growth in servicing the installed base of RVers. Fundamentally, I've never seen our business adjust with such precision to micro and macroeconomic headwinds. Being able to achieve the profitability we experienced during this difficult period has proven the resiliency of our company and puts a finer point on the quality and strength of the management team that have had the privilege of assembling over the last 20 years. I'd like to now turn the call over to Matthew Wagner to discuss our company's operations.

當我們處理庫存時——雖然處理庫存是我們的主要關注點，但我們必須認識到Good Sam 業務，該業務首次實現了超過1 億美元的創紀錄收入，並繼續在服務安裝基礎方面表現出穩定的增長。RVers。從根本上說，我從未見過我們的業務針對微觀和宏觀經濟逆風進行如此精確的調整。能夠在這個困難時期實現盈利，證明了我們公司的韌性，並進一步證明了過去 20 年有幸組建的管理團隊的素質和實力。我現在想把電話轉給馬修·瓦格納，討論我們公司的營運狀況。

Thank you, Marcus. As we reflect upon 2023, I cannot be more proud of our 12,000-plus team members. In 2023, we sold nearly 57,000 used units and generated nearly $2 billion of revenue, marking an all-time record for Camping World.

謝謝你，馬庫斯。當我們回顧 2023 年時，我為我們 12,000 多名團隊成員感到無比自豪。 2023 年，我們售出了近 57,000 台二手設備，創造了近 20 億美元的收入，創下了 Camping World 的歷史記錄。

Total new and used unit sales volume for the year totaled 115,000 units. Good Sam had another record year with 12% growth in gross profit and generating $100 million of adjusted EBITDA for the first time in company history. We also achieved our goal of significantly improving our new unit portfolio. We started 2023 with over 16,000 model-year '22s in stock. Today, we are sitting with less than 7,500 model year 2023s, significantly outpacing the industry with close to 80% of our inventory mix now in 2024 models.

全年新銷量和二手銷量總計 115,000 輛。 Good Sam 再次創下歷史新高，毛利成長 12%，調整後 EBITDA 在公司歷史上首次達到 1 億美元。我們也實現了顯著改善新單位投資組合的目標。 2023 年伊始，我們的 22 年式庫存超過 16,000 輛。如今，我們的 2023 年車型庫存量不足 7,500 輛，大大超過了該行業，目前我們的庫存組合中有近 80% 是 2024 年車型。

Our new inventory position was further enhanced by our successful negotiations in the fall of '23 with our OEM partners to reduce invoice prices in key categories. We were so successful in lowering new invoice prices, our used RV values were impacted. In Q4, we took decisive actions to reset used values and slow down the purchases of used RV inventory while market values corrected themselves. Between September through today, we procured 50% less used inventory year-over-year. As of today, our used same-store inventory is down 13%.

2023 年秋季，我們與 OEM 合作夥伴成功談判降低了關鍵類別的發票價格，從而進一步增強了我們新的庫存狀況。我們在降低新發票價格方面非常成功，我們的二手房車價值受到了影響。第四季度，我們採取果斷行動，重置二手房價值，並在市場價值自行修正的同時放慢二手房車庫存的購買速度。從 9 月到今天，我們購買的二手庫存年減了 50%。截至今天，我們的同店二手庫存下降了 13%。

These short-term maneuvers will allow our used volumes to improve over time as appropriately valued inventory is brought back into the system. We expect our used margins to improve sequentially starting over the next 60 days and to normalize to historical levels by Q4. This overall inventory strategy has resulted in positive same-store new sales in December and this trend continued throughout February, increasing in the mid-single to low double-digit range. This movement in demand supports our previously stated thesis that lower-priced RVs are a highly elastic product.

隨著適當價值的庫存被帶回系統，這些短期操作將使我們的使用量隨著時間的推移而增加。我們預計我們的已用利潤率將在未來 60 天內連續改善，並在第四季度恢復到歷史水準。這種整體庫存策略導致 12 月份同店新銷售額實現正增長，並且這一趨勢持續到整個 2 月份，增長幅度在中個位數至低兩位數範圍內。這種需求變動支持了我們先前提出的論點，即低價房車是一種高彈性產品。

In the way of capital deployment and asset management, we acquired, opened or signed LOIs on over 30 dealership rooftops. We ended 2023 with 202 RV dealerships or service centers. At the same time, we optimized our eigth SG&A cost structure. We restructured our active sports business, and we consolidated or exited distribution centers and underperforming locations. We made a number of changes in 2023 and have made our company stronger, and we believe this sets the stage for at least 30% EBITDA growth in 2024.

在資金配置和資產管理方面，我們收購、開立或簽署了30多家經銷店屋頂的意向書。截至 2023 年，我們擁有 202 家房車經銷商或服務中心。同時，我們優化了第八次SG&A成本結構。我們重組了活躍的運動業務，並整合或退出了配送中心和表現不佳的地點。我們在 2023 年進行了多項變革，使我們的公司變得更加強大，我們相信這為 2024 年 EBITDA 成長至少 30% 奠定了基礎。

As part of our growth plan for '24, we will continue to focus on expanding upon the tremendous progress that we have made with Good Sam, service, our used RV business while focusing on market share growth of new RVs and adding accretive acquisitions to our dealer network. As we sit here today, we are currently planning to add 25 to 30 dealerships in 2024 and the pipeline to acquire additional locations remains robust.

作為我們24 年成長計畫的一部分，我們將繼續專注於擴大我們在Good Sam、服務、二手房車業務方面取得的巨大進展，同時專注於新房車的市場份額成長，並為我們的房車業務增加增值收購。經銷商網路。當我們今天坐在這裡時，我們目前計劃在 2024 年增加 25 至 30 家經銷商，並且收購更多經銷商的通路仍然強勁。

Many of these new locations will be opened as exclusively branded stores focused on popular RV brands like Keystone, Jayco, Airstream, Forest River, Coachmen, Alliance and Grand Design. This cadence of store openings and acquisitions reaffirms our confidence in hitting our goal of growing our store count to 320 stores by the end of 2028.

其中許多新店將作為專賣店開設，專注於熱門房車品牌，如 Keystone、Jayco、Airstream、Forest River、Coachmen、Alliance 和 Grand Design。這種開店和收購的節奏再次堅定了我們實現到 2028 年底將門市數量增加到 320 家的目標的信心。

I'll now turn the call over to Tom Kirn to discuss our financial results.

我現在將把電話轉給湯姆·基恩 (Tom Kirn)，討論我們的財務表現。

Thanks, Matt. In 2023, we recorded revenue of $6.2 billion, a decline of roughly 10% from last year driven primarily by new unit volume, while used vehicle revenue of $2 billion increased 5% from last year and was a record for the company. Meanwhile, our Good Sam Services and Plans segment posted record revenue and gross profit for the year with $194 million in revenue and $134 million of gross profit. In the fourth quarter, we recorded revenue of $1.1 billion, down 13% from last year, driven primarily by used unit volume.

謝謝，馬特。 2023 年，我們的收入為 62 億美元，比去年下降約 10%，這主要是由於新車銷售所致，而二手車收入為 20 億美元，比去年增長 5%，創下了公司的紀錄。同時，我們的 Good Sam 服務和計劃部門今年的收入和毛利創歷史新高，收入為 1.94 億美元，毛利為 1.34 億美元。第四季度，我們的營收為 11 億美元，比去年下降 13%，這主要是受二手設備數量的推動。

Total new unit sales increased 3.2% turning positive for the first time in 10 quarters. The decline in new same-store unit sales improved to down 2.2%. Our adjusted EBITDA for the fourth quarter was a loss of $8.9 million during what is historically our industry's toughest quarter.

新單位銷售總額成長 3.2%，10 季以來首次轉正。新同店銷量降幅改善至 2.2%。我們在第四季度調整後的 EBITDA 虧損 890 萬美元，這是我們行業歷史上最艱難的季度。

During the back half of 2023, we also reduced costs by north of $60 million annually, and we'll continue to look for SG&A efficiencies throughout our business. As Matt alluded, we aggressively managed used inventory in the fourth quarter to return cash to the business and recalibrate our inventory position heading into spring. We see our used business experiencing volume and margin trends in the first quarter of '24 that are similar to the fourth quarter as we work to restock our loss for the upcoming season.

2023 年下半年，我們每年也減少了超過 6,000 萬美元的成本，並且我們將繼續在整個業務中尋求 SG&A 效率。正如馬特所提到的，我們在第四季度積極管理二手庫存，以向業務返還現金，並在進入春季時重新調整我們的庫存狀況。我們看到我們的二手業務在 24 年第一季的銷售和利潤率趨勢與第四季度相似，因為我們正在努力為即將到來的季節補充庫存。

On the balance sheet, we ended the quarter with about $185 million of cash, including $145 million of cash in the floor plan offset account. We also have roughly $271 million of used inventory net of flooring and $200 million of parts inventory. Finally, we own $175 million of real estate without an associated mortgage.

在資產負債表上，本季末我們擁有約 1.85 億美元的現金，其中包括平面圖抵銷帳戶中的 1.45 億美元現金。我們還有大約 2.71 億美元的二手庫存（扣除地板）和 2 億美元的零件庫存。最後，我們擁有價值 1.75 億美元的房地產，但沒有相關抵押貸款。

Thanks, Tom. Look, as we all have indicated, we believe the trend lines are very clear. We expect 2024 to be a much better year with the outlook after that only getting better. I'd like to turn the call over to the operator for the Q&A section.

謝謝，湯姆。看，正如我們都指出的那樣，我們相信趨勢線非常清晰。我們預計 2024 年將是更好的一年，之後的前景只會變得更好。我想將電話轉接給接線生進行問答部分。

(Operator Instructions) Our first question is from Joseph Altobello with Raymond James.

（操作說明）我們的第一個問題來自 Joseph Altobello 和 Raymond James。

This is Martin on for Joe. Back in Tampa, you talked about likely margin compression in 4Q and 1Q to clear out noncurrent inventory. Do you anticipate the impact to be less in 1Q and expect normalization in 2Q?

這是為喬代言的馬丁。回到坦帕，您談到了第四季度和第一季可能壓縮利潤以清理非流動庫存。您是否預計第一季的影響會較小並預計第二季會恢復正常？

So I want to unpack that in 2 different categories. We believe that the new margins are going to sequentially improve as we continue to move out of 2023 and really get back to a more normalized margin state for the full year. We actually think we have a pretty good shot at that.

所以我想將其分為兩個不同的類別。我們相信，隨著我們繼續邁出 2023 年並真正回到全年更正常化的利潤狀態，新的利潤率將依次提高。事實上，我們認為我們有很好的機會做到這一點。

On the used side, as we mentioned earlier, when we had success in renegotiating the '24 pricing, we had to acknowledge that the success on one side could create a short-term risk for us on the other side, and that's the used inventory values. We, through the fourth quarter took a lot of gas and a lot of pain in liquidating that used inventory and at the same time, shut off our procurement of use at a pretty rapid pace so that we can bring cash back in, wait for the market to settle in with the appropriate new derived values based on pricing, and then we will work our way back up.

在二手方面，正如我們之前提到的，當我們成功重新談判「24」定價時，我們必須承認，一方面的成功可能會給我們在另一方面帶來短期風險，這就是二手庫存價值觀。在第四季度，我們在清算使用過的庫存方面花費了大量的天然氣和痛苦，同時，以相當快的速度停止了我們的使用採購​​，以便我們可以帶回現金，等待市場根據定價確定適當的新衍生價值，然後我們將努力恢復。

I expect the used margin compression to continue through the end of Q1 because we really believe that if we can just bring our cash back in and turn that inventory, it will pay dividends in Q2, 3 and 4. The compression of margin that we're experiencing in Q1, that's self-inflicted, doesn't change our outlook for the full year. It just moves a lot of the profitability as expected to the normal quarters where we make the bulk of our money which is 2 and 3, and we will have a much better 4 than we did, the last 2 years.

我預計已用利潤率壓縮將持續到第一季末，因為我們確實相信，如果我們能夠收回現金並週轉庫存，它將在第二季、第三季和第四季支付股息。我們的利潤率壓縮第一季的經驗是我們自己造成的，不會改變我們對全年的展望。它只是將大量盈利能力轉移到正常季度，我們在正常季度賺了大部分錢，即 2 和 3，而且我們的 4 季度將比過去 2 年好得多。

And you mentioned your record year for profitability for Good Sam. Do you have any further thoughts on Good Sam monetization, what that might look like in the perpetual timing?

您還提到了 Good Sam 創紀錄的獲利能力。您對《好山姆》的貨幣化還有什麼進一步的想法嗎？在永久的時間裡這會是什麼樣子？

I missed that one word, Good Sam -- activation?

我錯過了那個詞，好山姆——激活？

Monetization.

貨幣化。

As we've spoken and released that press release just a couple of months ago now, there is no further update we have at this time, but we've been thrilled with the amount of outpouring outreach that we've had from interested parties and wanting to partner with us and work with us and learn more. But as of this moment, no additional updates.

正如我們幾個月前所說並發布的新聞稿一樣，我們目前沒有進一步的更新，但我們對感興趣的各方和我們所收到的大量外展感到興奮希望與我們合作並與我們一起工作並了解更多。但截至目前，沒有更多更新。

Yes. I mean, look, that's the technical answer. Here's the other answer, and that is, we love this business. We love the Good Sam business. And when we look at the last 5 to 10 years, it has been our crowned jewel, and we believe it will continue to be. The management changes that we've made there in the last several years have clearly paid dividends. And from our perspective, it's really about understanding how we're going to unlock value for our shareholders.

是的。我的意思是，看，這就是技術答案。這是另一個答案，那就是，我們熱愛這個行業。我們熱愛 Good Sam 業務。當我們回顧過去 5 到 10 年時，它一直是我們皇冠上的明珠，我們相信它將繼續如此。過去幾年我們在那裡進行的管理變革顯然已經帶來了回報。從我們的角度來看，這實際上是為了了解我們將如何為股東釋放價值。

There are a lot of different scenarios, and we're not married to any of them. In fact, at the end of the day, we just want to understand what our options are. But that business continues to perform, and we expect it to continue to be the stable rock in our portfolio.

有很多不同的場景，而我們並沒有與其中任何一個結婚。事實上，歸根結底，我們只是想了解我們的選擇是什麼。但該業務仍在繼續表現，我們預計它將繼續成為我們投資組合中的穩定基石。

Our next question is from James Hardiman with Citi.

我們的下一個問題來自花旗銀行的詹姆斯哈迪曼。

So obviously, the most encouraging part about all this is how much better things have gotten in January and February, obviously, particularly on the new side. Help us understand how much of that improvement is sort of industry improvement, overall demand improvement versus what you guys are doing at Camping World? Trying to figure out which of those 2 things would be really more sustainable, more important. Obviously, the whole industry has been waiting for that positive inflection point. Do you think we've seen it? Or is it just sort of stuff that you guys are doing to gain share?

顯然，這一切最令人鼓舞的部分是一月和二月的情況明顯好轉，尤其是在新方面。請幫助我們了解，與你們在露營世界所做的事情相比，這種改進有多少是產業改進、整體需求改進？試著找出這兩件事中哪一個真正更永續、更重要。顯然，整個產業一直在等待這個積極的轉折點。你認為我們見過嗎？或者這只是你們為了獲得份額而做的事情？

I'm going to separate that into 2 very specific answers. One, we are very hopeful that the industry at large is rebounding. And that's important for us because the growth of the installed base is the giant feeder for our Service business, our Good Sam business, our Parts business. We need the overall industry to be healthy. We need the manufacturers to get back to working production cycles where they're shipping north of 350,000 units at a minimum.

我將把它分成兩個非常具體的答案。第一，我們非常希望整個產業正在復甦。這對我們來說很重要，因為安裝基礎的成長是我們服務業務、Good Sam 業務和零件業務的巨大支柱。我們需要整個產業健康發展。我們需要製造商回到工作生產週期，他們的出貨量至少要超過 35 萬件。

But we do believe that there are things that we are doing that have allowed us to outpace our competitors. And when you look at the decision to drive down ASPs, consciously drive down ASPs in the face of what is still pretty material interest rates, we think that's made a big, big difference.

但我們確實相信，我們正在做的一些事情使我們能夠超越競爭對手。當你考慮壓低平均售價的決定時，在利率仍然相當高的情況下有意識地壓低平均售價，我們認為這會產生很大的影響。

I think the other piece that we are really starting to recognize is that the creativity that we have worked on in developing some of our private label brands like the launch of Eddie Bauer, which previewed materially at both Hershey and Tampa, and the consistent performance of Coleman has made a big difference. But we have also seen solid performance out of our Keystone business and our Jayco business, just the same and we've seen good explosive growth with the new acquisitions of certain dealerships that had Grand Design.

我認為我們真正開始認識到的另一件事是，我們在開發一些自有品牌時所付出的創造力，例如 Eddie Bauer 的推出，該品牌在好時和坦帕都進行了實質性預覽，以及科爾曼做出了巨大的改變。但我們也看到了 Keystone 業務和 Jayco 業務的穩健表現，同樣，我們也看到了透過新收購某些擁有 Grand Design 的經銷商而實現的爆炸性成長。

So I think there's a combination of a lot of things. Cleaning the inventory was actually, in our opinion, the biggest driver of all of it. And taking the pain that we took and will continue to take for another couple of months, is really what is putting the wind in our sales and setting us up nicely.

所以我認為這是很多事情的結合。我們認為，清理庫存實際上是這一切的最大驅動力。承受我們所承受的痛苦，並將在接下來的幾個月裡繼續承受這種痛苦，確實是我們銷售的動力，並為我們奠定了良好的基礎。

Great. That's helpful. And then maybe let me ask this. How much of your destiny in 2024, do you think you ultimately control? If we think about that 30% EBITDA growth, are you embedding some assumptions about where interest rates are going to head and when? And are there any sort of industry wholesale retail benchmarks that we should be thinking about that would be necessary for you to build accomplish your goals?

偉大的。這很有幫助。然後也許讓我問這個。 2024年你的命運有多少，你認為你最終能掌控？如果我們考慮 30% 的 EBITDA 成長，您是否嵌入了一些關於利率將走向何處以及何時走向的假設？我們是否應該考慮您建立實現目標所需的任何類型的行業批發零售基準？

We still believe that the general macro environment is tough. I mean, interest rates are still high, and we're not going to prognosticate on how many interest rate cuts there will be. We're probably in our mind, thinking that there may be 2 and they're later in the year. So there still is some headwind that we have to work through.

我們仍然認為整體宏觀環境嚴峻。我的意思是，利率仍然很高，我們不會預測會有多少次降息。我們可能在想，可能會有 2 個，而且會在今年稍後。因此，我們仍然需要克服一些阻力。

Us having a 30% improvement in EBITDA over a lower number is not any high 5 moment for our company. So we -- while we're confident that we can get there, it is not a celebratory moment. We continue to work forward in making sure that our inventory is clean, our SG&A is tight so that we can enjoy that type of growth. Hopefully, in the years past 2024.

對於我們公司來說，我們的 EBITDA 比較低數字提高了 30%，這並不是什麼高的時刻。因此，儘管我們有信心能夠實現這一目標，但這並不是一個值得慶祝的時刻。我們將繼續努力確保我們的庫存乾淨，SG&A 緊張，以便我們能夠享受這種增長。希望在 2024 年過去的幾年。

I think from our perspective, we're expecting retail and wholesale to be in the 360 to 370 range. And while there are some that believe it can go higher, we have to be realistic that there's still a possibility that it could even go lower. But we're comfortable with that band. And what we're seeing in the marketplace both from shows, both from looking at other dealers' websites is that there is momentum happening. It was more than just us, we think we're just outpacing everybody a little bit.

我認為從我們的角度來看，我們預計零售和批發將在 360 至 370 範圍內。儘管有些人認為它可以走高，但我們必須現實地認為它仍然有可能走低。但我們對那個樂團很滿意。我們從展會和其他經銷商的網站上都看到市場正在出現勢頭。這不僅僅是我們的問題，我們認為我們只是比每個人都領先了一點點。

Our next question is from Daniel Imbro with Stephens.

我們的下一個問題是丹尼爾·因布羅和史蒂芬斯提出的。

Marcus, last quarter, I think you had the team talked about taking maybe $60 million of costs out of the business. Maybe to follow up on the EBITDA growth outlook. As we see unit growth improve, how do you and the team feel about keeping those costs out of the model? And then as you go through the downturn, you have never wasted an opportunity. Are there any other stones you've turned over that could drive further efficiencies in the model as you see the business positioning for growth again?

馬庫斯，上個季度，我認為您的團隊曾討論過削減 6000 萬美元的業務成本。也許是為了跟進 EBITDA 成長前景。當我們看到單位成長有所改善時，您和團隊對於將這些成本排除在模型之外有何看法？當你經歷低迷時期時，你永遠不會浪費任何機會。當您再次看到業務定位成長時，是否有其他可以提高模型效率的其他方法？

Well, there's always a really important distinction between taking fixed costs out of the business and understanding that variable costs tied to commissions and advertising are going to go up as volume goes up. What we're really focused on is driving down our SG&A as a percentage of our gross profit. That is really the focus. And I want to turn it over to Tom, who really was the architect of looking through the expense structure and finding those things while recognizing that as volume comes back, Right? Variable expenses are going to go with it.

好吧，從業務中剔除固定成本與了解與佣金和廣告相關的變動成本將隨著銷售量的增加而增加之間始終存在著非常重要的差異。我們真正關注的是降低SG&A佔毛利的百分比。這才是真正的焦點。我想把它交給湯姆，他確實是審視費用結構並找到這些東西的架構師，同時認識到隨著銷量的回升，對吧？變動費用也會隨之而來。

Yes. As volume comes back as we need more people to pick up the phone and take the ups, there will be some increase in some of those variable compensation structure pieces, but we are continuing to look with Matt and the team and the analytics team at things like our lead propensity model and how can we get smarter with the advertising dollars that we do spend? How can we get smarter with our IT spend in certain areas? That's not to say that we're banking on it for the upcoming year, but there's -- we're still turning over stones for sure.

是的。隨著我們需要更多的人拿起電話和接聽電話，數量回升，其中一些可變薪酬結構部分將會有所增加，但我們將繼續與馬特和團隊以及分析團隊一起研究事情就像我們的潛在客戶傾向模型一樣，我們如何更明智地利用我們所花費的廣告費用？我們如何更明智地利用特定領域的 IT 支出？這並不是說我們在來年指望它，但我們肯定仍在努力。

But I'll give you a small little case in point, right? One of the things that we worked very hard on in '23 is to renegotiate certain leases, look at exiting certain properties and just driving down those fixed costs that weren't generating any revenue. We exited the active sports business. For the most part, we still have a very small web presence, but we started to get out of distribution centers in underperforming locations because we can't afford to wait for the market to come back while we burn through money. Until we made some tough decisions, and we will continue to do that as we always have as we enter '24.

但我會給你一個小例子，對嗎？我們在 23 年非常努力的事情之一是重新談判某些租約，考慮退出某些房產，並降低那些不產生任何收入的固定成本。我們退出了活躍的運動業務。在大多數情況下，我們的網路影響力仍然很小，但我們開始撤離表現不佳地區的配送中心，因為我們無法在燒錢的同時等待市場回歸。直到我們做出一些艱難的決定，我們將繼續這樣做，就像進入 24 年後我們一直在做的那樣。

I will be really crystal clear about that. The expense reductions aren't done. We're always going to be looking for things that we can eliminate, getting out of things that don't perform well, eliminating staff members that aren't contributing to the bottom line or generating revenue. That is always going to be the thesis.

我會非常清楚這一點。費用削減還沒完成。我們總是會尋找可以消除的東西，擺脫表現不佳的東西，消除那些對獲利沒有貢獻或創造收入的員工。這永遠是論文的主題。

I will tell you though, one of the things that we are excited to see is as rates come down, our floor plan expense comes down, and it comes down materially. For every 0.5 point that comes down, I mean you're talking about big numbers on an annual basis when you have $1 billion of inventory. So as we look at driving advertising costs down, getting out of poor-performing locations, making sure we have the right staff levels, modifying pay plans, which is always tough, we are going to wait for some wind to come into our sales that is outside of our control, but though we anticipate happening at some point.

但我會告訴你，我們很高興看到的一件事是隨著費率的下降，我們的平面圖費用下降，而且是實質下降。我的意思是，當您擁有 10 億美元的庫存時，每下降 0.5 個點，您每年都會談論一個大數字。因此，當我們考慮降低廣告成本、擺脫業績不佳的地區、確保我們擁有合適的員工水平、修改薪酬計劃（這總是很困難）時，我們將等待銷售出現一些風向這是我們無法控制的，但我們預計在某個時候會發生。

Understood. Appreciate that. And then maybe for a follow-up, I think, Matt, you mentioned adding 25 to 30 dealerships this year. Can you remind us how many you've completed so far? And then of those you've done, are all of them open and kind of running on this lean Camping World model where you've worked through old inventory? Or is there still a digestion period through the middle of this year that maybe we were waiting until 2025 before we're getting the full contribution from those recently acquired and the soon-to-be acquired stores.

明白了。感謝。然後，也許作為後續行動，我想，馬特，你提到今年增加 25 到 30 個經銷商。您能提醒我們到目前為止您已經完成了多少嗎？然後，在您所做的那些中，所有這些都是開放的，並且都在您處理過舊庫存的精益露營世界模型上運行嗎？或者今年年中是否還有一個消化期，也許我們要等到 2025 年才能從最近收購的和即將收購的商店獲得全部貢獻。

So if I take a step back and try to answer your question in the sequential order. As of this moment, we have opened 4 of those locations so far. So we should immediately start to generate revenue out of those specific locations. Of the other 25 to 30, we will have staggering open dates over the ensuing 2 quarters at least. Some of them might even bleed over to the third quarter depending upon. So when we think about what we're assuming in some of these scenarios, some of them are just greenfield builds, whereby we built them, completed them in Q4 of last year in which case, we'll be able to pick up just clean revenue. We won't have to be picking up any sort of older model year units like 2022 units or '23s, which, to answer your question, ultimately, in some of these other scenarios, we could be inheriting a number of model year 2022s or '23s. The good news, though, in these scenarios, we are negotiating all of these deals, whereby any sort of write-down is really just attributable to goodwill and it is factored into any sort of purchase price. So we are buying these model year '22s and model year '23s at appropriate market values.

因此，如果我退後一步並嘗試按順序回答您的問題。截至目前，我們已經開設了 4 個此類地點。因此，我們應該立即開始從這些特定地點創造收入。在另外 25 到 30 個季度中，我們至少會在接下來的 2 個季度內有驚人的開放日期。其中一些甚至可能會流血到第三季度，這取決於。因此，當我們考慮在其中一些場景中的假設時，其中一些只是綠地構建，我們構建它們，並在去年第四季度完成它們，在這種情況下，我們將能夠乾淨地拾取收入。我們不必選擇任何類型的舊型號年份單位，例如 2022 年單位或 '23s，為了回答您的問題，最終，在其他一些情況下，我們可以繼承一些 2022 年型號或23 年代。不過，好消息是，在這些情況下，我們正在談判所有這些交易，因此任何形式的減記實際上都只是歸因於商譽，並且它被計入任何形式的購買價格中。因此，我們將以適當的市場價格購買這些 22 款和 23 款車型。

As such, I don't think that should negatively impact our margin profile in the back half of next year. And we do believe that we'll start to pick up some incremental gains year-over-year by Q3, Q4, which is why when Marcus suggesting the sequential improvement, we see a lot of upside here in Q3, Q4 in particular, because of these acquisitions, plus all the different expense reductions we've been making, and we see a lot of upside there.

因此，我認為這不會對我們明年下半年的利潤率產生負面影響。我們確實相信，到第三季、第四季度，我們將開始取得一些同比增量收益，這就是為什麼當馬庫斯建議連續改善時，我們在第三季、尤其是第四季度看到了很多上行空間，因為這些收購，再加上我們一直在進行的所有不同的費用削減，我們看到了很多好處。

Just to put a finer point on it, we're going to make acquisitions or close on those acquisitions here in a pretty steady pace over the next 12 weeks. And there are going to be '22 and '23 model year new units coming into our system. So if you analyze our website or run any metrics against our website, you will see a jump in that.

更具體地說，我們將在接下來的 12 週內以相當穩定的速度進行收購或完成這些收購。我們的系統中將會有「22」和「23」車型年的新單位。因此，如果您分析我們的網站或針對我們的網站運行任何指標，您會看到其中的跳躍。

We want to be crystal clear that the value of those units coming into our system that are '22 and '23 are materially lower than the original invoice cost. They are on the money as we would say. So there should be no negative gross profit experience coming from those acquisitions. So please, when you see those units come into our system, do not arrive that there is some sort of problem, just understand they're on the money. And that was in large part, the reason we were able to make the acquisition of what was a very successful business that just got into inventory trouble.

我們希望非常清楚地表明，進入我們系統的「22」和「23」單位的價值大大低於原始發票成本。正如我們所說，他們靠的是錢。因此，這些收購不應產生負毛利。因此，當您看到這些單位進入我們的系統時，請不要認為存在某種問題，只需了解它們是有錢的。這在很大程度上是我們能夠收購一家剛剛陷入庫存困境的非常成功的企業的原因。

Our next question is from Mike Swartz with Truist Securities.

我們的下一個問題來自 Truist Securities 的 Mike Swartz。

Maybe just following up on the gross margin on new in the quarter. It was almost 19%, and that's fourth quarter's seasonally -- I think one of the seasonally lightest quarters for gross margin. And I think you had mentioned, Marcus, that you're kind of expecting flattish gross margin, if I heard that correctly, in new for the full year on a year-over-year basis. I guess, walk us through why that would be the case and maybe how to think about where that 19% goes over the next couple of quarters?

也許只是跟進本季新品的毛利率。幾乎是 19%，這是第四季度的季節性——我認為這是季節性毛利率最低的季度之一。馬庫斯，我想你曾經提到過，如果我沒聽錯的話，你預計全年的毛利率將與去年同期持平。我想，請告訴我們為什麼會出現這種情況，以及如何思考接下來幾季這 19% 的去向？

Yes. Well, the 19% was largely driven by assistance from the manufacturers who understood the necessity and that had been prenegotiated months and months and months in advance that they needed to help us participate in that cleansing. On a go-forward basis, the normal margins are in that 13% to 14% range. And we really believe that, that is a sustainable long-term strategy that gives us the velocity we need to do volume and transactions.

是的。嗯，這 19% 主要是由製造商提供的幫助推動的，他們了解必要性，並且提前數月進行了預先協商，以幫助我們參與清潔工作。展望未來，正常利潤率在 13% 至 14% 範圍內。我們確實相信，這是一項可持續的長期策略，它為我們提供了完成交易量和交易所需的速度。

As we have said for a very, very long time, the lowest contribution of margin in our entire portfolio is the new margin. Even when it gets up to 15%, 16%, 17% during COVID periods, we rely on the F&I transaction, the service and parts transaction and all the Good Sam attachment to all those things, making that entire transaction more valuable. One thing that we have to do a better job of in '24 and '25 is we need volume and market share back. Our company feeds off of a larger installed base. That has always and will continue to be our business model.

正如我們在很長一段時間以來所說的那樣，我們整個投資組合中保證金的最低貢獻是新保證金。即使在新冠疫情期間達到 15%、16%、17%，我們也依賴 F&I 交易、服務和零件交易以及所有這些事物的 Good Sam 附件，使整個交易更有價值。我們在 24 年和 25 年必須做得更好的一件事是我們需要恢復銷售和市場份額。我們公司擁有更大的安裝基礎。這一直並將繼續是我們的商業模式。

So when volume contracts, it has a long-lasting effect on more than just the new sales of our business. It affects our F&I, it affects our compensation metrics. SG&A as a percentage of growth. So what we're most excited about in '24 is driving those ASPs down, going out and grabbing market share in categories that we believe our competition is late to the party on and understanding that volume and transactions and getting volumes back to pre-COVID levels is job #1.

因此，當銷售量收縮時，它不僅對我們業務的新銷售產生長期影響。它影響我們的 F&I，影響我們的薪酬指標。 SG&A 佔成長的百分比。因此，我們在 24 年最興奮的是壓低平均售價，走出去，搶占我們認為我們的競爭對手遲到的類別的市場份額，了解銷量和交易量，並將銷量恢復到新冠疫情之前的水平。級別是工作#1。

Our new volume by location has hit a level along with everybody else in the industry that is unacceptable to us and not sustainable. So as we want us to kick start that volume again and get these same stores, not new stores, but get these same stores to contribute at a level that they historically contributed to that, we need volume which is why we're pushing down the ASPs, which is why we're going to accelerate into new volume, that really is the thesis. But I don't want anybody to look at the Q4 new margin and think that's some trackable event for the next 12, 24, 36 months. It's an abnormality, but it was a planned abnormality that we knew would help us push that through.

我們按地點劃分的新銷量已經達到了與業內其他公司一樣的水平，這是我們無法接受且不可持續的。因此，當我們希望我們再次啟動銷量並獲得這些相同的商店，而不是新商店，但讓這些相同的商店以他們歷史上貢獻的水平做出貢獻時，我們需要銷量，這就是為什麼我們要壓低銷量ASP，這就是我們要加速進入新卷的原因，這確實是論文。但我不希望任何人看到第四季的新利潤率，並認為這是未來 12、24、36 個月的一些可追蹤事件。這是一個異常情況，但這是一個有計劃的異常情況，我們知道它會幫助我們實現這一目標。

Okay. That's helpful. Marcus. And then maybe on the used vehicle side, and maybe 2 questions. I guess I'm trying to understand if gross margins were so compressed and you were obviously clearing inventory pretty dramatically during the quarter. I guess volume didn't react similarly. Was that simply due to not procuring as much? And then I guess, with what's gone on in model year '24 pricing. I know this kind of anomaly historically at least. I guess how does that feed into how you think about the RV Valuator tool going forward?

好的。這很有幫助。馬庫斯。然後也許是在二手車方面，也許有兩個問題。我想我想了解毛利率是否如此壓縮，並且您在本季度明顯大幅清理庫存。我猜音量沒有類似的反應。這只是因為沒有採購那麼多嗎？然後我猜想，24 年車型的定價會發生什麼變化。我至少在歷史上知道這種異常情況。我想這對您對 RV Valuator 工具未來發展的看法有何影響？

So when Matt and I drove away from the open house in September, and he had, had unbelievable success in renegotiating that '24 pricing. We both looked at each other in the car and said, we better get ahead of these used values. One key component of the Good Sam RV Valuator is invoice pricing on new models is an input into that equation along with a number of other factors. And we knew that as that was a factor, that valuator was going to be impacted in terms of how it saw used values.

因此，當馬特和我九月開車離開開放參觀日時，他在重新談判 24 年定價方面取得了令人難以置信的成功。我們在車裡面面相覷，說，我們最好先超越這些使用價值。 Good Sam 房車估價器的關鍵組成部分是新車型的發票定價，它與許多其他因素一起輸入到方程式中。我們知道，由於這是一個因素，評估師如何看待使用價值將會受到影響。

We knew driving home on that day that we needed to be quick and fast in exiting all used inventory that had been procured under the premise that values were higher on the

那天開車回家時，我們知道我們需要快速退出所有在價值更高的前提下購買的二手庫存。

(technical difficulty)

（技術難度）

At the same time, we were unsure of ourselves in terms of our willingness, our appetite to take on risk and continue to procure inventory at the same time while we knew there was a falling knife on used values. So we pulled back on our procurement knowing that it was going to affect volume because if you have less inventory in stock, you're going to sell less. But in our thesis, as money came out of our used inventory and came back into our cash account, we felt that it was the right thing to do.

同時，我們對自己是否願意承擔風險並繼續採購庫存感到不確定，同時我們知道二手價值正在下降。因此，我們減少了採購，因為我們知道這會影響銷量，因為如果庫存減少，銷量就會減少。但在我們的論文中，當錢從我們的舊庫存中出來並回到我們的現金帳戶時，我們認為這是正確的做法。

We are not done in cleansing that used inventory. There is some hangover, there's a material amount of hangover in Q1, but that's self-inflicted. Many dealers, many recreational dealers, auto dealers, et cetera, would do what's called kick the can, and they would just worry about dealing with the aging later. We have been disciplined since the beginning of this company on how we manage our used inventory. And the reason for that is that we know that the #1 thing that could kill a business is poor inventory management.

我們還沒有完成清理已使用庫存的工作。有一些宿醉，第一季有大量的宿醉，但這是自己造成的。許多經銷商，許多休閒經銷商，汽車經銷商等，都會做所謂的“踢罐子”，他們只會擔心以後如何處理老化問題。自公司成立以來，我們一直嚴格遵守如何管理二手庫存。原因是我們知道，導致企業滅亡的第一件事是庫存管理不善。

Our best loss is our first loss and recognizing that the values are overstated, by not a lot, but enough to be material, we needed to act quickly. Our volume on the used side will be temporarily constrained because we are not chasing procuring inventory just yet. I would expect that in the month of March, probably towards the middle, we will turn back on the procurement so that we have a more robust spring and summer [on used,] and we feel more comfortable with how the values have settled in.

我們最好的損失是我們的第一次損失，並認識到這些價值被高估了，雖然不是很多，但足以構成實質損失，我們需要迅速採取行動。我們的二手貨量將暫時受到限制，因為我們還沒有購買庫存。我預計，在三月份，可能是中旬，我們將重新開始採購，以便我們有一個更強勁的春季和夏季[二手]，並且我們對價值的穩定感到更加滿意。

Our next question is from Scott Stember with ROTH MKM.

我們的下一個問題來自 ROTH MKM 的 Scott Stember。

If you look at the products and services, a pretty big decline in the quarter. But if you were to parse out some of the eliminated businesses and look at just the repair side at the garage or in the shop level, how did that perform in the quarter on an organic basis?

如果你看看產品和服務，你會發現本季出現了相當大的下降。但是，如果您要分析一些被淘汰的業務，並僅關注車庫或商店層面的維修方面，那麼該季度的有機表現如何？

Well, we don't report the shop level separately. I'll start with that. But we were quite pleased with how our core service department performed in the quarter. We did, as we mentioned before, restructured that active sports business at the beginning of the year. Historically, the fourth quarter has been the best quarter for that business as you get through Black Friday and you get into winter season. And we also have our RV furniture distribution business, that OEM distribution business that relies on wholesale shipments and production in Elkhart to drive volume. That obviously was down as well in the quarter. So when you think about the impact of those, maybe about $50 million of top line impact in the quarter.

嗯，我們不單獨報告商店等級。我將從那開始。但我們對核心服務部門本季的表現非常滿意。正如我們之前提到的，我們確實在年初重組了活躍的運動業務。從歷史上看，隨著黑色星期五的到來和冬季的到來，第四季是該業務最好的季度。我們還有房車家具分銷業務，即 OEM 分銷業務，依靠埃爾克哈特的批發發貨和生產來推動銷售。本季這數字顯然也有所下降。因此，當您考慮這些影響時，您會發現本季的營收影響可能約為 5,000 萬美元。

Yes. The good news is, right, that we really look at the core business and the core service business seems to be...

是的。好消息是，我們真正專注於核心業務，而核心服務業務似乎...

Yes, and this is Matt Wagner speaking now. I mean, as Tom and I have armwrestled over this many times, I would love nothing more than to break out the service business in particular to give credit where it's due ultimately where we would love to continue to highlight the success of our service business and actually pushing more business through the base. Because we've seen in times like this, where there's different calculations valuation issues out there, inflation takes hold in a deflation environment, the service business is the one constant within the dealership network, especially that consistently performs, especially as consumers want to hold on to their assets longer and just simply repair it instead of just a straight-up replacement.

是的，這是馬特·瓦格納現在講話。我的意思是，正如湯姆和我在這個問題上爭論過很多次一樣，我最樂意的是打破服務業務，特別是在最終應得的地方給予認可，我們希望繼續強調我們的服務業務的成功，並且實際上透過基地推動更多業務。因為我們在這樣的時期看到，有不同的計算估值問題，通貨膨脹在通貨緊縮環境中佔據主導地位，服務業務是經銷商網路中的一個不變的業務，尤其是持續表現良好的業務，尤其是當消費者希望持有時更長時間地使用他們的資產，只是簡單地修復它，而不是直接更換。

And just as well, we realize the benefits that come along with all the extended service plans and the Good Sam business that begins to be bolstered by such a presence. We did see a nice improvement in service year-over-year. And we continue to see upside in growth, especially with external work within our service base.

同樣，我們意識到所有擴展服務計劃和 Good Sam 業務所帶來的好處，這些業務開始受到這樣的存在的支持。我們確實看到服務同比有了很大的改善。我們繼續看到成長的好處，特別是在我們的服務基礎內的外部工作方面。

The one thing that I cannot sort of avoid is as the new volume comes back, and as we trade for more units, and as more customers are out on the road, both the existing ones and new ones, that service business has a natural rise that ties back to overall sales growth. So we expect to see over the next several years, continued improvement, continued Bay utilization, et cetera. It was a tough 24 months for us. And I don't want to avoid that topic. Even service was tough because when volume falls, everything sort of falls with it. Yes, our used business helps us keep reconditioning things going. But that's internal work. We need to see more customer pay work where people are out using their rigs, and we're eliminating pain points for them. And that is a clear focus for us for the next 36 months.

我無法避免的一件事是，隨著新銷量的回歸，隨著我們交易更多的單位，隨著越來越多的客戶（無論是現有客戶還是新客戶）上路，服務業務自然會成長這與整體銷售成長有關。因此，我們預計在未來幾年內會看到持續的改善、持續的海灣利用率等等。這對我們來說是艱難的 24 個月。我不想迴避這個話題。甚至服務也很困難，因為當銷售量下降時，一切都會隨之下降。是的，我們的二手業務幫助我們繼續翻新東西。但這是內部工作。我們需要看到更多的客戶付費工作，人們在外面使用他們的設備，我們正在消除他們的痛點。這是我們未來 36 個月的明確重點。

Got it. And just one follow-up. Just after a year of absorbing a lot of new companies through acquisition. Maybe just talk about some of the positives that you've seen on the synergistic side, whether it's from a used angle or from F&I?

知道了。只有一個後續行動。就在一年後，透過收購吸收了許多新公司。也許只是談談您在協同方面看到的一些積極因素，無論是從使用的角度還是從 F&I 的角度？

It's always tough to feel really good about acquisitions that we buy at super trough multiples in a trough environment because the trough environment still is the macro environment that, that business has to function with. What we have been successful in doing and what we think is the bright spot is the integration of the brand, the installation of our process in F&I, the installation of our process and service, the readjustment of the inventory metric to have new use, those things have been real bright spots. But to have those acquisitions really make us feel good, we need the overall market to come back so that our same-store business grows and our new store business grows at (inaudible) time.

我們總是很難對在低谷環境下以超低谷倍數購買的收購感到真正滿意，因為低谷環境仍然是該業務必須適應的宏觀環境。我們所做的成功的事情以及我們認為的亮點是品牌的整合，我們在F&I中的流程的安裝，我們的流程和服務的安裝，庫存指標的重新調整以具有新的用途，這些事情確實有亮點。但要讓這些收購真正讓我們感覺良好，我們需要整體市場回歸，以便我們的同店業務成長，我們的新店業務在（聽不清楚）時間增長。

And if I could even just throw in a couple of other elements. Every time we add a store, we achieve more and more scale in our marketing, tech stack where ultimately, we know that we have such a commanding presence within this entire industry. And each time we add another rooftop, we're enhancing marketing but also service capabilities to go back to your first question, Scott, where part of this whole opportunity as we continue to expand is continue to evolve within this whole lifestyle and grow this total addressable market and for our capture of that total addressable market.

如果我能加入一些其他元素就好了。每次我們增加一家商店時，我們都會在行銷和技術堆疊方面實現越來越大的規模，最終，我們知道我們在整個行業中擁有如此強大的影響力。每次我們增加另一個屋頂時，我們都會增強行銷能力，同時也增強服務能力，回到你的第一個問題，史考特，隨著我們繼續擴張，整個機會的一部分是在整個生活方式中繼續發展並增加這一總量目標市場以及我們佔領整個目標市場的能力。

Our next question is from John Healy with Northcoast Research.

我們的下一個問題來自 Northcoast Research 的 John Healy。

Just wanted to ask kind of a high-level question. As you think about the products and service business and Good Sam, are there any aspects of that business that kind of operate today based on what happened 3 or 4 years ago? So when I kind of look at the spike that you saw in your business from '20 to 2021, is there anything that we should expect in '24 or '25 that should, in essence, kind of pop up higher just because of the age and then the flow of the RVs, just kind of migrating just through the consumer holding them for an x amount or period of time?

只是想問一個高級問題。當你思考產品和服務業務以及 Good Sam 時，該業務的某些方面是否是基於 3 或 4 年前發生的情況而運作的？因此，當我看一下您在 20 年到 2021 年期間看到的業務激增時，我們是否應該在 24 或 25 年期待什麼，從本質上講，僅僅因為年齡的增長，就會出現更高的情況然後房車的流動，只是透過持有它們一段時間或一段時間的消費者進行遷移？

That's an excellent question. And Good Sam has portions of its revenue that are deferred. And so when we have a good year, the deferred income happens over 2 or 3 or 4 years based on the product that we sold. Oddly enough, when volume is down, the deferred revenue doesn't -- isn't as robust. And we've already been through that process over the last 2 years, where we've had to make other moves inside of the business to grow that business.

這是一個很好的問題。 Good Sam 的部分收入是遞延的。因此，當我們業績好的一年時，根據我們銷售的產品，遞延收入會在 2 年、3 年或 4 年期間發生。奇怪的是，當銷售量下降時，遞延收入卻沒有那麼強勁。過去兩年我們已經經歷了這個過程，我們必須在業務內部採取其他措施來發展業務。

As volume comes back, we expect first year revenue recognition and then the following year's revenue recognition to improve materially. And that's an excellent assessment because that's ultimately how the Good Sam business works. You need good volume over a long period of time to help. That's why we're excited for volume to come back. That business needs just the same.

隨著銷售回升，我們預計第一年的收入確認和第二年的收入確認將大幅改善。這是一個很好的評估，因為這就是 Good Sam 業務的最終運作方式。您需要長時間保持良好的音量來提供幫助。這就是為什麼我們對銷量的回歸感到興奮。該業務的需求也是一樣的。

Even further elaborate on that, going back to the PSOE category. When you think of just the install dates growing in 2023 based on RBIO records, another 200,000 individuals that are registering their assets. That's just suggestive of the fact that yes, you are going to need to have more repair cycles as well as all the different products that consumers are going to need. So you're spot on, John. That's a good thing for us. As this business grew markedly 2 years ago, consumers do not leave this industry. Once they get hooked, they're in this lifestyle and that starts to pay residual value for all of our different businesses like a service in particular and Good Sam.

回到 PSOE 類別，進一步詳細說明這一點。當您考慮到 2023 年基於 RBIO 記錄的安裝日期增長時，另外 200,000 個人正在註冊他們的資產。這只是暗示了這樣一個事實：是的，您將需要更多的維修週期以及消費者需要的所有不同產品。所以你說得對，約翰。這對我們來說是一件好事。由於該業務在兩年前顯著成長，消費者並沒有離開這個行業。一旦他們上癮，他們就會陷入這種生活方式，並開始為我們所有不同的業務（尤其是服務和 Good Sam）支付剩餘價值。

Got it. Makes a lot of sense. And then just one final question. On the SG&A, the growth side of things, I might have missed it, but is there a bogey that we should be thinking about for this year or maybe the exit of this year?

知道了。很有道理。最後還有一個問題。在SG&A，即事物的成長方面，我可能錯過了它，但我們今年是否應該考慮或可能是今年的退出？

Yes. I mean we're not where we want to be in terms of full maturity coming back into mid-cycle yet. We would not consider 2024 a mid-cycle year. We're still in a -- we're not in the trough but we're not at mid-cycle. And mid-cycle has always targeted us to be around 68% to 69%. I would expect we'll be in the 70% to 72% range that -- I mean, excuse me, 72% to 74% range in 2024.

是的。我的意思是，就完全成熟回到週期中期而言，我們還沒有達到我們想要的目標。我們不認為 2024 年是週期中期的一年。我們仍然處於——我們沒有處於低谷，但我們也沒有處於週期中期。中期週期的目標始終是 68% 到 69% 左右。我預計到 2024 年我們將處於 70% 到 72% 的範圍內——我的意思是，對不起，72% 到 74% 的範圍。

Our next question is from Noah Zatzkin with KeyBanc Capital Markets.

我們的下一個問題來自 KeyBanc Capital Markets 的 Noah Zatzkin。

Hoping you could maybe provide some additional color on any updated thoughts around the complexion of the 30%-plus EBITDA growth expectation in '24 relative to maybe how you were thinking about that 3 or 4 months ago. I think there was a thought that maybe full year same-store unit growth could be driven by both new and used growth, but given some of the commentary around used, would you expect the new same-store units to drive that growth with used declines?

希望您能就 24 年 30% 以上的 EBITDA 成長預期（相對於您 3 或 4 個月前的想法）的最新想法提供一些額外的資訊。我認為有人認為全年同店單位的增長可能是由新的和二手的增長共同推動的，但考慮到一些關於二手的評論，你是否認為新的同店單位會隨著二手的下降而推動增長？

And then you just kind of touched on this a bit, but given some of the moving pieces on vehicle margins in the quarters -- in the quarter. Just any updated thoughts on blended vehicle margins versus SG&A rate as a percentage of gross margin as building blocks to get to that 30% plus. Would be helpful.

然後你只是稍微觸及了這一點，但考慮到本季度車輛利潤率的一些變化。關於混合車輛利潤率與 SG&A 率佔毛利率的百分比的最新想法，作為達到 30% 以上的基石。會有幫助的。

Okay. Great. I'm going to try to unpack that in a couple of different ways. The first is we -- I don't recall ever saying that we thought both new and used would be up materially in '24. I think we believe that same-store total unit sales will be up, but it is largely driven by new on a double-digit basis. So that's a big contributor.

好的。偉大的。我將嘗試用幾種不同的方式來解釋它。首先是我們——我不記得曾經說過我們認為新的和二手的都會在 24 年大幅上漲。我認為我們相信同店總銷量將會上升，但這主要是由兩位數的新品所推動的。所以這是一個很大的貢獻者。

The second contributor is we also believe that we're not going to experience the same gross margin pain through the second and third quarter that we were experiencing last year. And the third piece is, as Tom mentioned earlier, we have made some material SG&A reductions. The combination of those 3 is what's giving us the ability to have a fairly decent '24. We don't consider a 30% growth in our EBITDA number, anything to celebrate. We're coming off of a low number. We're trying to dig out of a low trough environment, and we're trying to get back to mid-cycle, which we think is probably going to be more realistic in the '25 to '26 years that, that will be far more robust. We are working our a** off to get to a number in '24 that cobbles together better margins, better top line revenue on new, sustaining our relevance in used, continuing to grow our service business and stabilize our use -- our Good Sam business, while we are contracting costs at the fastest rate that we possibly can. That's what's helping us get there. There is no grand macro wind that's going to take us to 30% up in 2024. We believe that's possible in '25 and '26, and we've seen this moving before. But we do have to work through that. So that is the stacker builder model to get to that '24 number. Can you remind me on the second half of your question, I apologize.

第二個貢獻者是我們也相信，我們在第二和第三季不會經歷去年經歷的同樣的毛利率痛苦。第三點是，正如 Tom 之前提到的，我們已經進行了一些實質的 SG&A 削減。這三者的結合使我們能夠度過一個相當不錯的 24 年。我們認為 EBITDA 數字成長 30% 並不值得慶祝。我們的人數不多了。我們正在努力擺脫低谷環境，並努力回到週期中期，我們認為這在 25 至 26 年可能會更加現實，那將是很長的一段時間。更堅固。我們正在竭盡全力，爭取在24 年達到一個目標，即提高新產品的利潤率、提高頂線收入、保持我們在二手產品方面的相關性、繼續發展我們的服務業務並穩定我們的使用——我們的好山姆業務，同時我們正在以最快的速度壓縮成本。這就是幫助我們實現這一目標的原因。 2024 年，沒有任何宏觀宏觀因素能讓我們達到 30% 的成長。我們相信這在 25 年和 26 年是可能的，而且我們之前已經看到過這種情況的發展。但我們確實必須解決這個問題。這就是達到 24 號的堆疊機構建造器模型。你能提醒我你問題的後半部嗎，我很抱歉。

Yes. Just any thoughts relative to maybe 3 or 4 months ago on kind of the blended vehicle margins for the year and the complexion of that new versus used? And then you kind of touched on SG&A rate as a percentage of gross already.

是的。與 3 或 4 個月前相比，您對今年的混合車輛利潤率以及新車與二手車的情況有什麼想法嗎？然後您已經談到了銷售及行政費用佔總收入的百分比。

Yes. I mean the SG&A as a percentage of gross is a hump to get there. And I really believe that while the 72% to 74% is a goal, we have a lot of work to do to get there. We're going to need those margins to come back. in our model today of 30% EBITDA growth, it's probably closer to, call it, 76% 77% and we have a lot of work to do to get there. And so I'm optimistic on the SG&A side, probably more optimistic than I should be. But we feel comfortable with that number.

是的。我的意思是，SG&A 佔總收入的百分比是實現這一目標的難題。我堅信，雖然 72% 到 74% 是一個目標，但要實現這一目標，我們還有很多工作要做。我們需要這些利潤來恢復。在我們今天的 EBITDA 成長 30% 的模型中，它可能更接近 76% 77%，我們還有很多工作要做才能實現這一目標。因此，我對 SG&A 方面持樂觀態度，可能比我應有的更樂觀。但我們對這個數字感到滿意。

We have no change from 3 or 4 months ago. I don't see any different strategy. The one thing I do want to put a very strong point on is that we are going to continue to stay disciplined around inventory. I cannot stress that enough. We are going to continue to stay disciplined. And while we know that, that doesn't make everybody happy, we promise that the investment in staying discipline will yield much better results in this year and the following years. We cannot get lazy in managing that. So the used margins are going to continue to take pressure.

與三、四個月前相比，我們沒有任何變化。我沒有看到任何不同的策略。我確實想強調的一件事是，我們將繼續保持庫存紀律。我怎麼強調都不為過。我們將繼續保持紀律。雖然我們知道，這並不能讓每個人都高興，但我們承諾，在保持紀律方面的投資將在今年和未來幾年產生更好的結果。我們不能在管理方面偷懶。因此，已用利潤將繼續承受壓力。

No, even just the fire point on perhaps more directly your question of margins, especially in Q1 sequentially throughout the year. You heard Marcus earlier speak about new margins being in that like 13.5% to 14% range. We believe it will probably be in that range in Q1 and can maybe improve a little bit throughout the course of the year on the new side. And on the used side, as you suggested earlier, just as well, it's going to be lower than historically it has been in Q1.

不，即使只是可能更直接的利潤問題的火點，尤其是全年第一季。您之前聽到 Marcus 談到新的利潤率在 13.5% 到 14% 的範圍內。我們相信，第一季的情況可能會在這個範圍內，並且在新的一年中可能會有所改善。在二手方面，正如您之前所建議的那樣，它也將低於第一季的歷史水平。

If I was a betting individual, probably not like perhaps 14% to 16% range. And we know that that's a bit of self-inflicted pain, but really good inventory hygiene and management and that's at the stage very well then for the balance of the year, where I wouldn't be surprised if we settle into that like 20% to 21% range for the balance of the quarter throughout the year.

如果我是投注者，可能不會有 14% 到 16% 的範圍。我們知道，這有點自作自受，但庫存衛生和管理確實很好，而且今年剩餘時間的情況非常好，如果我們將這一比例調整為 20%，我不會感到驚訝全年該季度剩餘時間的增長幅度為21%。

By the end of the year. By the end of the year. It's kind of interesting, and I'm hoping you guys heard what I did. We're apologizing and disappointed with used margins that are still going to be higher than everybody's excitement around new margins. And what that tells you is the used business is the secret sauce of this company. And the reason that we are so diligent right now in the hygiene around it, it's because we know that that's what's going to carry us for the balance of '24, '25, '26 and beyond.

到今年底。到今年底。這很有趣，我希望你們聽到我做了什麼。我們對使用的利潤率仍然高於每個人對新利潤率的興奮程度表示歉意和失望。這告訴你，二手業務是這家公司的秘密武器。我們現在之所以如此勤奮地處理周遭的衛生問題，是因為我們知道這將支撐我們度過 24 年、25 年、26 年及以後的餘下時間。

We go as the new market goes. And there are years where we outperformed the market and there are years where we underperformed the market on new. We have to be always outperforming the market [on used,] and we know that cleansing is the key to that.

我們隨著新市場的發展而發展。有些年我們的表現優於市場，有些年我們的新表現低於市場。我們必須始終超越市場[二手]，我們知道清潔是實現這一目標的關鍵。

Our next question is from Tristan Thomas-Martin with BMO Capital Markets.

我們的下一個問題來自 BMO 資本市場的 Tristan Thomas-Martin。

Can you talk to just OEM promotional support in 1Q? Do they just kind of stop spicket when the year turned? Or how has that played out?

您能談談第一季的 OEM 促銷支援嗎？當新年來臨之際，他們會停止緊張嗎？或者說結果如何？

No. I mean, look, the manufacturers are always supportive. It's not about stopping the spicket, it's so that there's not a lot of water left in the tank. There's not a lot of necessity for it. And we made the commitment with them to be proactive together. And the assistance that we're getting is similar to the assistance that other people are getting. They may be showing it in marketing co-op or floor plan assistance or a variety of other areas. But the manufacturers have been, in my opinion, stellar in understanding that the overall growth of the market is dependent on the cleanliness of the inventory.

不，我的意思是，看，製造商總是支持的。這不是為了停止插樁，而是為了讓水箱中不再剩下太多水。沒有太大的必要性。我們與他們做出了共同積極主動的承諾。我們獲得的幫助與其他人獲得的幫助類似。他們可能會在行銷合作或平面圖幫助或各種其他領域展示它。但在我看來，製造商非常清楚地認識到市場的整體成長取決於庫存的清潔度。

And if you look back in 2023, each manufacturer took a lot of pain and a lot of gas, both on the top line side and on their overall contribution to dealers to cleanse inventory. We're hopeful that the bulk of that's done. There are still a subset of dealers out there that have issues with their inventory. You can see it in the general marketplace. We don't think it's as prevalent as it was 7 months ago, but there are still some. That's usually how acquisitions come to our front door because our inventory struggles.

如果你回顧 2023 年，每個製造商都付出了很大的痛苦和大量的汽油，無論是在營收方面還是在他們對經銷商清理庫存的整體貢獻方面。我們希望大部分工作已經完成。仍有一部分經銷商的庫存有問題。一般市場上都可以看到。我們認為這種情況不像 7 個月前那麼普遍，但仍然存在。由於我們的庫存困難，收購通常就是這樣來到我們家的。

The manufacturers in the 20-something years that I've been doing this, for the first time to this degree, really do understand the importance of units moving through the channel.

在我從事這項工作的 20 多年裡，製造商第一次真正理解了透過管道移動的單位的重要性。

And I compliment them on 3 specific things: one, they don't seem to be making spec inventory like they were before, trying to be far more in line with what the retail registrations are; two, they acknowledge the need to drive down the cost of a like-for-like unit by being more innovative, negotiating with suppliers, suppliers being more willing to participate; and three, everybody really does understand that inventory management for the first time and hopefully, the final time is key to having symbiotic communication with the dealer to not outpace it.

我在三件事上稱讚他們：第一，他們似乎沒有像以前那樣製造規格庫存，而是試圖與零售註冊更加一致；第二，他們似乎沒有像以前那樣生產規格庫存，而是試圖與零售註冊更加一致；第二，他們承認需要透過更具創新性、與供應商談判、供應商更願意參與來降低同類單位的成本；第三，每個人都第一次真正了解庫存管理，希望最後一次是與經銷商共生溝通的關鍵，以免超越它。

In the past, manufacturers would overproduce, dealers would get overstocked, and we'd go through the same cycle. I think maybe for the first time, that lesson has been more learned than ever.

過去，製造商生產過剩，經銷商庫存過剩，我們也會經歷同樣的循環。我想也許這是第一次，人們比以往任何時候都學到了更多的教訓。

Got it. And then you kind of mentioned this, are you expecting more kind of price concessions from model year '25 relative to model year '24? And then just as a whole, how are you thinking about tailwind model year '24 ordering ahead of the '25 rollout?

知道了。然後您提到了這一點，您是否期望 25 款車型相對於 24 款車型有更多的價格優惠？總的來說，您如何考慮在 25 年推出之前訂購 24 年的順風車型？

Tristan, I think the manufacturers have been very effective at targeting certain price points to ensure that they're spurring some demand in the marketplace. What I mean by that is specifically within that travel trailer segment and under, I'd say, a 30,000 retail price point, we believe that the manufacturers are very creative in terms of either decontenting or perhaps having some sort of price concessions to actually ensure that we're able to yield more market growth. But ultimately, within other categories, I do believe that there's going to have to be a little bit more wiggle room specifically when we talk about motorized or even fifth wheels.

特里斯坦，我認為製造商在瞄準某些價格點方面非常有效，以確保刺激市場的一些需求。我的意思是，特別是在旅行拖車細分市場中，我想說的是，在30,000 的零售價點下，我們相信製造商在滿足需求或可能進行某種價格優惠方面非常有創意，以真正確保我們能夠實現更多的市場成長。但最終，在其他類別中，我確實相信，特別是當我們談論機動化甚至第五輪時，必須有更多的迴旋空間。

We're keeping a very diligent eye on that just as well because we understand that when prices are modified within the overall new marketplace, it could impact used. So we believe that we have factored that in moving ahead to understand that there's going to perhaps be some other price concessions in different categories. Albeit I don't think they're going to be necessarily as material as what we just saw across the board. But I think we're set up pretty well as a company, I can't necessarily speak for our competition and the broader base at large.

我們也非常密切地關注這一點，因為我們知道，當整個新市場中的價格發生變化時，可能會影響使用情況。因此，我們相信，我們已經將這一點考慮在內，以了解不同類別可能會有一些其他價格優惠。儘管我認為它們不一定像我們剛才看到的那樣具有實質意義。但我認為我們作為一家公司的設定相當好，我不一定能代表我們的競爭對手和更廣泛的基礎。

And then just your kind of plan for '25 ordering/end of '24 ordering?

那麼您對「25 年訂購」/「24 年結束訂購」有何計畫？

Planned for ordering at the end of '25?

計劃在 25 年底訂購？

Yes, -- we don't. Yes. Let me jump into this one. We don't order -- like we don't wake up in the morning and just order. We have a 6- to 9-month planning that we sit down with each manufacturer to ensure that we're ordering inventory the right way. And what we want to be careful of is that we're ordering and looking at demand while we're ordering. So we're not just going to go out and place a ton of orders. '25s are going to come at some point. And we don't know when that's going to happen. We believe that the manufacturers are going to stay disciplined and allow dealers to work through their '24 inventory as we hit the selling season in the spring and the summer and then roll out to '25 at the appropriate time.

是的，--我們不這樣做。是的。讓我跳進這個。我們不點菜——就像我們早上不醒來就點菜一樣。我們有一個 6 到 9 個月的計劃，我們會與每個製造商坐下來，以確保我們以正確的方式訂購庫存。我們要注意的是，我們在訂購的同時也要考慮需求。因此，我們不會只是出去下大量訂單。 25歲將在某個時候到來。我們不知道什麼時候會發生。我們相信，製造商將保持紀律，並允許經銷商在春季和夏季銷售旺季時處理其 24 年庫存，然後在適當的時間推出到 25 年。

Specifically motorized convert quicker. That will probably happen in the next couple of months here. And in all likelihood, my hope to Marcus' point, is that towables don't convert that model year until July, August time frame. In which case, there won't be an abundance of 2025 within the overall network until probably like October, November. It generally takes a little while to ramp up that production and start to sell down '24s to introduce '25s.

專門的機動轉換速度更快。這可能會在接下來的幾個月內發生。很可能，我對馬庫斯的觀點的希望是，拖車在七月、八月的時間範圍內不會轉換該車型年份。在這種情況下，整個網路中不會有足夠的 2025，直到 10 月、11 月。通常需要一段時間才能提高產量並開始出售 24 年份酒以推出 25 年份酒。

So to suggest what the game plan is. I mean that's really tough to say at this moment. But just understanding that there is a scarce supply of rolling stock inventory and generally speaking, of the dealers that we're acquiring, they've been apprehensive to restock as of this moment. So when I say restock really in Q1 and perhaps bleeding into Q2. There's going to come a moment though, where all dealers are going to have to restock because they simply are either just so low on inventory, and they need to have some sort of way to entice consumers to come back into the overall network.

所以建議遊戲計劃是什麼。我的意思是，現在很難說。但只要了解機車車輛庫存供應稀缺，一般來說，對於我們正在收購的經銷商來說，他們目前一直擔心補充庫存。因此，當我說第一季確實重新進貨時，可能會進入第二季。不過，總有一天，所有經銷商都將不得不補充庫存，因為他們要么庫存太低，要么需要採取某種方式來吸引消費者回到整個網路。

My guess is Q3, Q4, there could be a fair amount of wholesale shipments within the overall industry. I think there could be some material increases, and that just suggests with the fact that we've reduced inventory to such an extreme level as an industry over the last 2.5 years. So there has to come a point where restocking occurs.

我的猜測是第三季、第四季，整個產業內可能會有相當數量的批發出貨量。我認為可能會有一些實質的增加，這只是表明我們在過去 2.5 年裡已經將庫存減少到了行業的極端水平。因此，必須有一個重新進貨的時刻。

Our next question is from Brandon Rollé with D.A. Davidson.

我們的下一個問題來自 D.A. 的 Brandon Rollé。戴維森。

Just first, a follow-up on your fiscal year '24 assumptions. You had said maybe 2 rate cuts in the back half of this year. Does your 30% EBITDA growth forecast baked in, the improvement in flooring cost and maybe overall retail demand? Or is that just a comment you felt like rate relief would be minimal this year?

首先，對您的 24 財年假設進行跟進。您曾說過今年下半年可能會降息兩次。您的 30% EBITDA 成長預測、地板成本的改善以及整體零售需求是否已反映？或者這只是您認為今年利率減免幅度很小的評論？

I mean we have very, very little enhancement to our number based on any rate cuts happening. If it's $1 million, that would be a lot in the back half of the year.

我的意思是，根據發生的任何降息，我們的數字幾乎沒有增加。如果是 100 萬美元，這對下半年來說是很多了。

That's right. It's really just a couple of rate reductions in the back half of the year impacting the floor plan interest expense. We have not tried to really get bullish on the demand impact of it.

這是正確的。實際上，只是今年下半年的幾次降息影響了平面圖利息支出。我們還沒有試著真正看好它對需求的影響。

Okay. Okay. Great. And then also just on RV -- new RV pricing, you had talked about continuing to drive prices lower. How much lower do you think pricing needs to go in some of your higher velocity categories to really get the industry back to normalized retail volumes?

好的。好的。偉大的。然後，就房車而言——新的房車定價，您談到了繼續壓低價格。您認為某些高速品類的定價需要降低多少才能真正讓產業恢復正常零售量？

I mean for us, I feel pretty good, Brandon, that within our high-velocity products, especially those that are under 20,000 retail price point, but we've been very effective at hitting that right invoice price and in turn right retail price. I think as you go up the pricing funnel, there's going to have to be some concessions here and there, especially as you get up to the Motorized segment. That's where that's going to be a head scratcher for me in so much as it's going to be very difficult to actually continue to yield the demand that we're seeing out there, knowing that Ford is still imposing price increases on their chassis.

我的意思是，對我們來說，布蘭登，我感覺很好，在我們的高速產品中，特別是那些零售價低於20,000 點的產品，但我們在達到正確的發票價格和正確的零售價格方面非常有效。我認為，當你進入定價管道時，到處都必須有一些讓步，特別是當你進入機動化細分市場時。這對我來說將是一個令人頭疼的地方，因為知道福特仍在對其底盤漲價，實際上很難繼續滿足我們所看到的需求。

So motorized manufacturers truly are going to be just subjected to whatever Ford is going to suggest in terms of their cutaway chassis and raising those prices. And they can only work with suppliers to such an extent to reduce the overall content that's being put into those assets.

因此，機動製造商確實將受到福特在剖面底盤和提高價格方面的建議。他們只能與供應商合作，以減少投入這些資產的整體內容。

I think the one thing that we don't want to have happen to be totally honest with these. We want this perfect balance between prices reducing and the consumer not losing confidence in the value of the asset they just bought. That's a really, really important thing. Like we want to drive value to the consumer. And we want the manufacturer to make money, and we want to make money.

我認為我們不希望發生的一件事就是對這些完全誠實。我們希望在價格下降和消費者對他們剛購買的資產的價值不失去信心之間實現完美的平衡。這是一件非常非常重要的事情。就像我們想為消費者帶來價值一樣。我們希望製造商賺錢，我們也想賺錢。

But if we keep moving having these wild swings in invoice pricing, the customer is going to lose confidence and more importantly, the banks will lose confidence in what their end value is. This whole model for 2024 was really built on a couple of assumptions, and I want to close out with just kind of clarifying a few things.

但如果我們繼續在發票定價劇烈波動的情況下繼續前進，客戶將會失去信心，更重要的是，銀行將對其最終價值失去信心。 2024 年的整個模型實際上是建立在幾個假設之上的，我想在結束時澄清一些事情。

Number one, we expect new volume sales to improve. We expect used volume to stay relatively flat, and there will be nip and tuck. But for the full year, we expect it to stay relatively flat. We expect gross margins on the new side to sequentially improve, but are not going to have some COVID type margin return. That's not going to happen. We expect used margins to materially sequentially return as we start the year in that 15% range in Q1 and get back to a normalized number by year-end.

第一，我們預期新銷售將會改善。我們預計二手貨量將保持相對平穩，並且將會出現壓區和折縫。但就全年而言，我們預計將保持相對穩定。我們預計新方的毛利率將持續改善，但不會出現一些新冠疫情類型的利潤回報。那是不會發生的。我們預計，隨著年初第一季 15% 的範圍內使用利潤率將大幅回升，並在年底前恢復正常水平。

On the expense side, this is maybe the most important takeaway. We've always had a goal of having SG&A at 70% or below. But a number of factors are important in understanding how we get there. One of them is taking care of our people. And what we did not want to do is start going through our organization and just eliminating head count without any logic to it because we know this industry comes back. In a matter of 60 days, we saw our numbers go from negative -- materially negative on the new side to reasonably positive and that happened really quickly. And we know that as we get in the selling season, that can happen. The worst customer experience and the worst overall brand building that a company can have is when customers come in and there's nobody to answer the phone, nobody could call them back, nobody to take care of them.

在費用方面，這可能是最重要的收穫。我們的目標始終是 SG&A 保持在 70% 或以下。但有許多因素對於理解我們如何實現這一目標非常重要。其中之一就是照顧我們的員工。我們不想做的是開始徹底檢查我們的組織並在沒有任何邏輯的情況下消除員工人數，因為我們知道這個行業會回來。在大約 60 天的時間裡，我們看到我們的數字從負值（新方面的實質負值）變成合理的正值，而且發生得非常快。我們知道，隨著銷售季節的到來，這種情況可能會發生。一家公司可能擁有的最糟糕的客戶體驗和最糟糕的整體品牌建設是當客戶進來時沒有人接聽電話，沒有人可以回電，也沒有人來照顧他們。

So as we manage the SG&A as a percentage of gross, we have to have a finer balance. When I say things like 72% and 73%, the rest of the team looks at me like I'm nuts. I'm probably more optimistic about how things could return. But the reality of it is, is that expenses are going to continue to be there, particularly when floor plan is high and marketing dollars are high and we're taking on acquisitions. Our standards are not going to change in the foreseeable future for the overall mid-cycle look. And that is an 8% EBITDA margin, SG&A as a percentage of gross at 70%. Those 2 numbers have been constant forever, and we've had numbers as high as 13%, and 59% and we've had numbers -- excuse me, as well as those 2 numbers, and we've had the opposite.

因此，當我們以總收入的百分比來管理銷售及行政費用時，我們必須有一個更好的平衡。當我說 72% 和 73% 之類的事情時，團隊的其他成員都用異樣的眼神看著我，就像我瘋了一樣。我可能對事情的恢復更加樂觀。但現實是，費用將繼續存在，特別是當平面圖很高、行銷費用很高且我們正在進行收購時。在可預見的未來，我們對於整體中期週期外觀的標準不會改變。即 EBITDA 利潤率為 8%，SG&A 佔總營收的百分比為 70%。這兩個數字永遠保持不變，我們的數字高達 13% 和 59%，我們有數字 - 對不起，還有這兩個數字，但我們有相反的數字。

As we work through the 2024 calendar year, we are confident that we're going to do what it takes to get to the 30% plus number of EBITDA. The inputs are still moving around a little bit. Maybe pick up a little bit more margin, we hope. Are our expenses going to be better? Of course, they are. But we have to be realistic about what we're dealing with in this environment and not set ourselves up for credibility issues with the customer, with our employees or with you.

在 2024 年的工作中，我們有信心將盡一切努力實現 EBITDA 30% 以上。輸入仍在一點點移動。我們希望，也許能獲得更多的利潤。我們的開支會更好嗎？當然，他們是。但我們必須現實地對待我們在這種環境下所面臨的問題，而不是讓自己與客戶、我們的員工或您之間產生信譽問題。

So we're sticking to our number because we know we can get there. But there is a lot of moving parts and pieces. And we do believe that the bulk of the earnings for the company, like every other year, are going to happen in Q2 and Q3. I think the difference for us is that we expect Q4 to be better. We expect it to be better because there was a lot of noise in our Q4 number last year. And we want to be super clear about that.

所以我們堅持我們的數字，因為我們知道我們可以到達那裡。但有很多活動部件。我們確實相信，與其他年份一樣，該公司的大部分收益將發生在第二季和第三季。我認為對我們來說不同的是我們期望第四季度會更好。我們預計情況會更好，因為去年第四季的數據有很多噪音。我們想非常清楚這一點。

So if there are no other formal questions, we want to move into the Q&A section. Operator, we'll go ahead and move into the Q&A section, please. That's it, we're done? Okay. Thank you very much for joining our call. We want to confirm there's no more questions.

因此，如果沒有其他正式問題，我們想進入問答部分。接線員，我們將進入問答部分。就這樣，我們就完成了嗎？好的。非常感謝您加入我們的通話。我們想確認沒有更多問題了。

There are no further questions at this time.

目前沒有其他問題。

Great. Thank you so much.

偉大的。太感謝了。

This concludes today's conference. You may disconnect your lines at this time. Thank you for your participation.

今天的會議到此結束。此時您可以斷開線路。感謝您的參與。