CVR Energy Inc (CVI) 2023 Q1 法說會逐字稿

Greetings, and welcome to the CVR Energy, Inc. First Quarter 2023 Conference Call. (Operator Instructions) As a reminder, this conference is being recorded. It is now my pleasure to introduce your host, Richard Roberts, Vice President of Financial Planning and Analysis and Investor Relations. Thank you, sir. You may begin.

您好，歡迎來到 CVR Energy, Inc. 2023 年第一季度電話會議。 （操作員說明）提醒一下，正在錄製此會議。現在我很高興向您介紹主持人，財務規劃和分析及投資者關係副總裁理查德·羅伯茨 (Richard Roberts)。謝謝你，先生。你可以開始了。

Thank you, Christine. Good afternoon, everyone. We very much appreciate you joining us this afternoon for our CVR Energy First Quarter 2023 Earnings Call. With me today are Dave Lamp, our Chief Executive Officer; Dane Neumann, our Chief Financial Officer; and other members of management.

謝謝你，克里斯汀。大家下午好。非常感謝您今天下午加入我們的 CVR Energy 2023 年第一季度收益電話會議。今天和我在一起的是我們的首席執行官 Dave Lamp；我們的首席財務官 Dane Neumann；和其他管理層成員。

Prior to discussing our 2023 1st quarter results, let me remind you that this conference call may contain forward-looking statements as that term is defined under federal securities laws. For this purpose, any statements made during this call that are not statements of historical facts may be deemed to be forward-looking statements. You are cautioned that these statements may be affected by important factors set forth in our filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission and in our latest earnings release. As a result, actual operations or results may differ materially from the results discussed in the forward-looking statements. We undertake no obligation to publicly update any forward-looking statements, whether as a result of new information, future events or otherwise, except to the extent required by law.

在討論我們 2023 年第一季度的業績之前，讓我提醒您，本次電話會議可能包含前瞻性陳述，因為該術語是根據聯邦證券法定義的。為此，本次電話會議期間作出的任何非歷史事實陳述均可被視為前瞻性陳述。請注意，這些聲明可能會受到我們向美國證券交易委員會提交的文件和我們最新的收益報告中規定的重要因素的影響。因此，實際運營或結果可能與前瞻性陳述中討論的結果存在重大差異。我們沒有義務公開更新任何前瞻性陳述，無論是由於新信息、未來事件或其他原因，法律要求的範圍除外。

This call also includes various non-GAAP financial measures. The disclosures related to such non-GAAP measures, including reconciliation to the most directly comparable GAAP financial measures, are included in our 2023 first quarter earnings release that we filed with the SEC and Form 10-Q for the period and will be discussed during the call.

此電話會議還包括各種非 GAAP 財務措施。與此類非 GAAP 措施相關的披露，包括與最直接可比的 GAAP 財務措施的調節，包含在我們向美國證券交易委員會提交的 2023 年第一季度收益報告和該期間的 10-Q 表格中，並將在稱呼。

With that said, I'll turn the call over to Dave.

話雖如此，我會把電話轉給戴夫。

Thank you, Richard. Good afternoon, everyone, and thank you for joining our earnings call. Yesterday, we reported first quarter consolidated net income of $259 million and an earnings of -- per share of $1.94. EBITDA for the quarter was $401 million. Our strong quarter -- results for the quarter were driven by high gas and diesel cracks in the Refining segment and record high production volumes in the Fertilizer segment. We are pleased to announce that the Board of Directors has authorized the first quarter dividend of $0.50 per share, which will be paid on May 22 to shareholders of record on the close of the market on May 15.

謝謝你，理查德。大家下午好，感謝您加入我們的財報電話會議。昨天，我們報告第一季度綜合淨收入為 2.59 億美元，每股收益為 1.94 美元。本季度的 EBITDA 為 4.01 億美元。我們強勁的季度——本季度的業績是由煉油部門的高天然氣和柴油裂縫以及化肥部門創紀錄的高產量推動的。我們很高興地宣布，董事會已批准每股 0.50 美元的第一季度股息，將於 5 月 22 日支付給 5 月 15 日收市時登記在冊的股東。

Our annualized dividend yield of approximately 7% based on yesterday's closing price remains best-in-class among independent refiners.

根據昨天的收盤價，我們的年化股息收益率約為 7%，在獨立煉油商中仍然是同類最佳。

In our Petroleum segment, combined total throughput for the first quarter of 2023 was approximately 196,000 barrels per day and light product yield was 100% on crude oil processed. We began the planned coker turnaround at Coffeyville at the end of February, and work was completed in early April. Benchmark cracks remain elevated during the first quarter with Group 3 2-1-1, averaging $34.16 per barrel. The distillate crack remained above gas crack in the first quarter, although gas cracks have improved significantly recently.

在我們的石油部門，2023 年第一季度的總吞吐量約為每天 196,000 桶，原油加工的輕質產品產量為 100%。我們於 2 月底開始計劃在 Coffeyville 進行焦化改造，並於 4 月初完成工作。基準裂縫在第一季度保持高位，第 3 組 2-1-1，平均每桶 34.16 美元。第一季度餾分油裂解率仍高於氣裂解，儘管最近氣裂解已顯著改善。

While the incentive in the group is still to operate refineries in max distillate mode, we have the ability to swing production from distillate to gasoline by approximately 5% to 10% if economics dictate.

雖然集團的動機仍然是在最大餾分油模式下運營煉油廠，但如果經濟需要，我們有能力將生產從餾分油轉向汽油約 5% 至 10%。

RIN prices declined slightly in the fourth quarter -- from the fourth quarter, but remain stubbornly high at $8 per barrel. On our last earnings call, I highlighted that we filed petitions with the Fifth Circuit seeking judicial review of EPA's ridiculous and misguided denial of Wynnewood's small refinery exemptions for 2017 through 2021. I am pleased to announce that the Fifth Circuit recently ruled to stay Wynnewood's compliance obligation after noting EPA's June 2022 small refinery exemption denial was likely contrary to law.

與第四季度相比，第四季度 RIN 價格略有下降，但仍居高不下，為每桶 8 美元。在上一次財報電話會議上，我強調指出，我們已向第五巡迴法院提交請願書，要求對 EPA 荒謬且錯誤地拒絕 2017 年至 2021 年 Wynnewood 小型煉油廠豁免的做法進行司法審查。我很高興地宣布，第五巡迴法院最近裁定維持 Wynnewood 的合規性在註意到 EPA 2022 年 6 月拒絕小型煉油廠豁免可能違反法律後，該義務。

Small refineries across the country have filed similar lawsuits with compliance days being granted so far for certain small refineries in the Fifth, Eleventh and DC circuits. As we have stated many times in the past, the RFS regulation was written to protect small refineries like Wynnewood from disproportionate economic harm caused by absurdly high RIN prices, and we will continue to fight for our rights that we believe Wynnewood is entitled to.

全國各地的小型煉油廠都提起了類似的訴訟，迄今為止，第五、十一和 DC 迴路中的某些小型煉油廠獲得了合規日。正如我們過去多次聲明的那樣，RFS 法規旨在保護像 Wynnewood 這樣的小型煉油廠免受因 RIN 價格高得離譜而造成的不成比例的經濟損失，我們將繼續爭取我們認為 Wynnewood 有權享有的權利。

We continue to increase throughput rates at our Wynnewood renewable diesel unit in the quarter, processing approximately 22 million gallons of vegetable oil feedstock. The HOBO spread improved by approximately $0.30 per gallon from the fourth quarter and the combination of higher throughput volumes and improved HOBO spread drove improved results for the first quarter of 2023 relative to the fourth quarter of 2022. As a reminder, our renewable diesel business is currently reported in our Corporate and Other segment.

本季度，我們繼續提高 Wynnewood 可再生柴油裝置的吞吐量，加工了大約 2200 萬加侖的植物油原料。與第四季度相比，HOBO 價差每加侖增加了約 0.30 美元，吞吐量增加和 HOBO 價差改善相結合推動了 2023 年第一季度相對於 2022 年第四季度的業績有所改善。提醒一下，我們的可再生柴油業務是目前在我們的公司和其他部門報告。

In the Fertilizer segment, both facilities ran well during the quarter with record consolidated ammonia utilization of 105%. Fertilizer prices declined during the first quarter. However, we posted another quarter of strong results since we sold more than half of our first quarter production in the fourth quarter of 2022 before prices began to decline. We continue to expect healthy demand for fertilizer in the planning season due to strong grain prices and farmer economics.

在化肥部門，兩個設施在本季度運行良好，綜合氨利用率達到創紀錄的 105%。一季度化肥價格有所回落。然而，我們又公佈了另一個季度的強勁業績，因為我們在 2022 年第四季度的價格開始下跌之前售出了第一季度一半以上的產品。由於強勁的糧食價格和農民經濟狀況，我們繼續預計計劃季節對化肥的需求將保持健康。

Now let me turn the call over to Dane to discuss our financial highlights.

現在讓我把電話轉給 Dane 來討論我們的財務亮點。

Thank you, Dave, and good afternoon, everyone. For the first quarter of 2023, our consolidated net income was $259 million, earnings per share was $1.94 and EBITDA was $401 million. Our first quarter results include an unfavorable inventory valuation impact of $20 million, a positive mark-to-market on our estimated outstanding RIN obligation of $56 million and unrealized derivative gains of $31 million.

謝謝戴夫，大家下午好。 2023 年第一季度，我們的綜合淨收入為 2.59 億美元，每股收益為 1.94 美元，EBITDA 為 4.01 億美元。我們第一季度的業績包括 2000 萬美元的不利庫存估值影響、對我們估計的未償還 RIN 義務 5600 萬美元的積極按市值計價以及 3100 萬美元的未實現衍生收益。

Excluding the above-mentioned items, adjusted EBITDA for the quarter was $334 million and adjusted earnings per share was $1.44. Adjusted EBITDA in the Petroleum segment was $210 million for the first quarter, driven by strong product cracks in the Mid-Con. Our first quarter realized margin adjusted for inventory valuation, unrealized derivative gains and RIN mark-to-market impacts was $18.99 per barrel, representing a 56% capture rate on the Group 3 2-1-1 benchmark. RIN's expense for the quarter, excluding the mark-to-market impact was $95 million or $5.36 per barrel, which negatively impacted our capture rate for the quarter by approximately 16%.

剔除上述項目，本季度調整後的 EBITDA 為 3.34 億美元，調整後的每股收益為 1.44 美元。石油部門第一季度調整後的 EBITDA 為 2.1 億美元，這主要是受 Mid-Con 強勁產品裂縫的推動。我們第一季度根據庫存估值、未實現的衍生品收益和 RIN 按市值計算的影響調整後的實現利潤率為每桶 18.99 美元，代表 Group 3 2-1-1 基準的捕獲率為 56%。 RIN 本季度的費用（不包括按市值計算的影響）為 9500 萬美元或每桶 5.36 美元，這對我們本季度的捕獲率產生了約 16% 的負面影響。

The estimated accrued RFS obligation on the balance sheet was $582 million at March 31, representing 363 million RINs mark-to-market at an average price of $1.60. As a reminder, our estimated outstanding RIN obligation excludes the impact of any small refinery exemptions.

截至 3 月 31 日，資產負債表上的應計 RFS 義務估計為 5.82 億美元，相當於 3.63 億 RIN 按市值計價，平均價格為 1.60 美元。提醒一下，我們估計的未償還 RIN 義務不包括任何小型煉油廠豁免的影響。

Direct operating expenses in the Petroleum segment were $5.90 per barrel for the first quarter compared to $5.57 per barrel in the first quarter of 2022. The increase in direct operating expenses was primarily due to higher repair and maintenance expenses related to the coker turnaround at Coffeyville, offset somewhat by lower natural gas costs. Adjusted EBITDA in the Fertilizer segment was $124 million for the first quarter, with strong production for the quarter offsetting the decline in nitrogen fertilizer prices relative to the first quarter of 2022.

第一季度石油部門的直接運營費用為每桶 5.90 美元，而 2022 年第一季度為每桶 5.57 美元。直接運營費用的增加主要是由於與 Coffeyville 的焦化設備檢修相關的維修和維護費用增加，較低的天然氣成本在一定程度上抵消了這一影響。第一季度化肥業務的調整後 EBITDA 為 1.24 億美元，本季度強勁的產量抵消了氮肥價格相對於 2022 年第一季度的下降。

The partnership declared a distribution of $10.43 per common unit for the first quarter of 2023.

該合夥企業宣布 2023 年第一季度每普通單位分配 10.43 美元。

As CVR Energy owns approximately 37% of CVR Partners common units, we will receive a proportionate cash distribution of approximately $41 million.

由於 CVR Energy 擁有 CVR Partners 普通單位約 37% 的股份，我們將按比例獲得約 4100 萬美元的現金分配。

Cash provided by operations for the first quarter of 2023 was $247 million, and free cash flow was $213 million. Significant uses of cash in the quarter included $98 million of net RIN purchases, $53 million of capital and turnaround spending and $29 million of cash interest, in addition to $70 million paid for the noncontrolling interest portion of the CVR Partners' fourth quarter distribution and $50 million paid for the CVI fourth quarter dividend.

2023 年第一季度運營提供的現金為 2.47 億美元，自由現金流為 2.13 億美元。本季度現金的重大使用包括 9800 萬美元的 RIN 淨採購、5300 萬美元的資本和周轉支出以及 2900 萬美元的現金利息，此外還為 CVR Partners 第四季度分配的非控股權益部分支付了 7000 萬美元，以及 50 美元百萬支付了 CVI 第四季度股息。

Total consolidated capital spending was $59 million, which included $42 million in the Petroleum segment, $4 million in the Fertilizer segment and $12 million on the pretreatment unit for the RDU. Turnaround spending in the first quarter was $40 million.

綜合資本支出總額為 5900 萬美元，其中包括石油部門的 4200 萬美元、化肥部門的 400 萬美元和 RDU 預處理裝置的 1200 萬美元。第一季度的扭虧為盈支出為 4000 萬美元。

For the full year 2023, we estimate total consolidated capital spending to be approximately $200 million to $226 million and turnaround spending to be approximately $60 million to $65 million.

對於 2023 年全年，我們估計綜合資本支出總額約為 2 億至 2.26 億美元，而周轉支出約為 6000 萬至 6500 萬美元。

Turning to the balance sheet. We ended the quarter with a consolidated cash balance of $601 million, which includes $121 million of cash in the Fertilizer segment. Total liquidity as of March 31, excluding CVR Partners, was approximately $734 million, which was comprised primarily of $479 million of cash and availability under the ABL facility of $255 million.

轉向資產負債表。本季度末，我們的綜合現金餘額為 6.01 億美元，其中包括化肥部門的 1.21 億美元現金。截至 3 月 31 日，不包括 CVR Partners 在內的總流動資金約為 7.34 億美元，其中主要包括 4.79 億美元現金和 ABL 貸款下的可用資金 2.55 億美元。

Looking ahead to the second quarter of 2023, for our Petroleum segment, we estimate total throughput to be approximately 195,000 to 210,000 barrels per day, direct operating expenses to range between $90 million and $100 million and total capital spending to be between $35 million and $45 million. For the Fertilizer segment, we estimate our second quarter 2023 ammonia utilization rate to be between 95% and 100%, direct operating expenses to be approximately $50 million to $55 million, excluding inventory impacts, and total capital spending to be between $7 million and $12 million.

展望 2023 年第二季度，對於我們的石油部門，我們估計總吞吐量約為每天 195,000 至 210,000 桶，直接運營費用在 9000 萬至 1 億美元之間，總資本支出在 3500 萬至 45 美元之間百萬。對於化肥部門，我們估計我們 2023 年第二季度的氨利用率在 95% 到 100% 之間，直接運營費用約為 5000 萬到 5500 萬美元，不包括庫存影響，總資本支出在 700 萬到 12 美元之間百萬。

For renewables, we estimate second quarter 2023 total throughput to be approximately 15 million to 22 million gallons for the quarter due to a planned catalyst change.

對於可再生能源，由於計劃更換催化劑，我們估計該季度 2023 年第二季度的總吞吐量約為 1500 萬至 2200 萬加侖。

Direct operating expenses for the second quarter are expected to be between $6 million and $8 million.

第二季度的直接運營費用預計在 600 萬美元至 800 萬美元之間。

With that, Dave, I will turn it back over to you.

有了這個，戴夫，我會把它還給你。

Thank you, Dane. In summary, we had another strong quarter driven by solid contributions from both Refining and Fertilizer segments, and we saw improved results in our renewable diesel business as well. As we look at the underlying fundamentals driving our business, we remain cautiously optimistic about the near-term outlook. Starting with refining, 2023 got off to a strong start, with the highest first quarter average crack spreads in recent history.

謝謝你，戴恩。總而言之，在煉油和化肥部門的強勁貢獻的推動下，我們又迎來了一個強勁的季度，我們的可再生柴油業務也取得了改善。當我們審視推動我們業務發展的基本面時，我們對近期前景保持謹慎樂觀。從煉油開始，2023 年開局強勁，第一季度平均裂解價差創下近期歷史新高。

While high diesel cracks drove much of the strength in the first quarter, diesel has softened somewhat, but this is -- has been somewhat offset by increased gas cracks. Turnaround activities across the industry were high in the first quarter, leading to inventories of refined products in the U.S. to fall below 5-year average levels. In the Mid-Con, inventories for gas and diesel are low for this time of year and product liftings have been strong, particularly for diesel with agricultural demand pulling hard during the planning season.

雖然高柴油裂縫在第一季度推動了大部分的力量，但柴油有所軟化，但這在一定程度上被增加的天然氣裂縫所抵消。第一季度整個行業的周轉活動很高，導緻美國精煉產品庫存降至 5 年平均水平以下。在 Mid-Con，一年中這個時候的天然氣和柴油庫存較低，產品提價強勁，特別是在計劃季節期間農業需求強勁拉動的柴油。

Refined products volumes across our racks are up approximately 5% compared to the first quarter of 2022, which allows us to blend additional biofuels and increase our internal RIN generation. Premium gasoline margins averaged $0.36 gallon in the first quarter, which helps our capture rates as approximately 50% of our gasoline production is premium.

與 2022 年第一季度相比，我們機架上的精煉產品量增加了約 5%，這使我們能夠混合更多的生物燃料並增加我們內部的 RIN 生成量。第一季度優質汽油利潤平均為 0.36 美元加侖，這有助於我們的捕獲率，因為我們大約 50% 的汽油產量是優質汽油。

Given the elevated crack environment early in the year, the Board authorized a hedging program, allowing us to enter into crack spread swaps for up to 30% of our expected gasoline and diesel production for Q2 through Q4 of 2023 and all of 2024. We began putting these hedges on in early January, and we currently have crack spread swaps lapped in for approximately 25% of our 2023 expected production and approximately 7% of our 2024 expected production. We currently are in the money on those hedges, which are partially -- which was partially reflected in our unrealized dividend derivatives gain for the first quarter.

鑑於年初裂解環境升高，董事會批准了一項對沖計劃，允許我們就 2023 年第二季度至第四季度以及 2024 年全年的預期汽油和柴油產量進行高達 30% 的裂解價差互換。我們開始我們在 1 月初進行了這些對沖，目前我們已將 crack spread swap 納入我們 2023 年預期產量的約 25% 和 2024 年預期產量的約 7%。我們目前在這些對沖中獲利，這部分反映在我們第一季度未實現的股息衍生品收益中。

On the crude oil side of the equation, inventories increased closer to 5-year averages levels, which can also be partially attributed to elevated turnaround activity so far in 2023. Heavy crude spreads are narrowing, which, along with the decline in diesel cracks, have been hurting coker economics recently. Shale oil production in the United States continues to grow slowly, and we have seen our volumes in our gathering systems increase to nearly 140,000 barrels per day in March due to increased drilling activity. Although the Brent-TI differential has narrowed some recently, exports of Midland WTI are continuing at record levels, which we believe should be supportive of the sustained Brent-TI spread.

在等式的原油方面，庫存增加接近 5 年平均水平，這也可以部分歸因於 2023 年迄今為止的周轉活動增加。重質原油價差正在收窄，連同柴油裂解物的下降，最近一直在損害焦化經濟。美國的頁岩油產量繼續緩慢增長，而且由於鑽井活動的增加，我們的收集系統的產量在 3 月份增加到每天近 140,000 桶。儘管布倫特-TI 價差最近有所收窄，但米德蘭 WTI 的出口繼續保持創紀錄水平，我們認為這應該會支持持續的布倫特-TI 價差。

Turning to Fertilizer segment. Nitrogen fertilizer prices declined in the first quarter, in part due to a significant decline in natural gas prices in Europe, Asia and the U.S. Grain prices remain strong and farmer economics are attractive, and this should bode well for nitrogen fertilizer demand in spring.

轉向肥料部分。一季度氮肥價格下跌，部分原因是歐洲、亞洲和美國的天然氣價格大幅下跌。糧食價格保持堅挺，農民經濟具有吸引力，這對春季氮肥需求來說應該是個好兆頭。

Since the turnarounds completed at both of our facilities in the third quarter of 2022, the plants ran well with high utilization in the first quarter. Over the next 2 years, we plan to invest some additional capital in the fertilizer plants, intended to further improve their reliability, lower their carbon footprint and prepare for potential capacity expansions in one or both facilities.

自 2022 年第三季度我們的兩個設施完成檢修以來，這些工廠在第一季度運行良好，利用率很高。在接下來的 2 年裡，我們計劃向化肥廠投資一些額外的資金，旨在進一步提高它們的可靠性，降低它們的碳足跡，並為一個或兩個設施的潛在產能擴張做準備。

We are also continuing to evaluate the potential transaction to spin off our GP and LP interests in CVR Partners, and I look forward to providing you additional details at the appropriate time.

我們還在繼續評估潛在交易，以剝離我們在 CVR Partners 的 GP 和 LP 權益，我期待在適當的時候為您提供更多詳細信息。

Finally, in renewables, we continue to ramp up production on the renewable diesel unit at Wynnewood processing over 22 million gallons of feedstock in the first quarter. We are completing our second planned catalyst change, and we are expecting to see significant improvements in renewable diesel yield with this new -- the new catalyst install. Construction of the PTU is progressing, and we are currently expecting an in-service date to late -- mid to late third quarter of 2023.

最後，在可再生能源方面，我們繼續提高 Wynnewood 可再生柴油裝置的產量，第一季度加工了超過 2200 萬加侖的原料。我們正在完成我們計劃的第二次催化劑更換，我們期待通過這種新的 - 新催化劑安裝看到可再生柴油產量的顯著提高。 PTU 的建設正在進行中，我們目前預計服役日期將推遲到 2023 年第三季度中後期。

With the addition of the PTU, we expect to see renewable diesel margin capture improve by approximately 30%.

隨著 PTU 的加入，我們預計可再生柴油利潤率將提高約 30%。

Looking at the second quarter of 2023, quarter-to-date metrics are as follows: Group 3 2-1-1 cracks have averaged $32.32 per barrel, with the Brent-TI spread at $3.96 per barrel and Midland WTI differential at $0.66 per barrel over WTI. The WTL differential has averaged $0.04 per barrel under WTI and the WCS differential has averaged $15.31 under WTI. Prompt fertilizer prices are approximately $500 for ammonia and $300 per ton for UAN. As of yesterday, Group 3 2-1-1 cracks were $25.96, Brent-TI was $3.65 and WCS was $15.09 under WTI. RINs were approximately $1.50 -- excuse me, per barrel were $7.81 per barrel.

縱觀 2023 年第二季度，季度至今的指標如下：第 3 組 2-1-1 裂縫平均價格為每桶 32.32 美元，布倫特-TI 價差為每桶 3.96 美元，米德蘭 WTI 價差為每桶 0.66 美元高於 WTI。 WTL 價差在 WTI 之下平均為每桶 0.04 美元，WCS 價差在 WTI 之下平均為 15.31 美元。氨的即時化肥價格約為 500 美元，UAN 為每噸 300 美元。截至昨日，WTI 下 Group 3 2-1-1 裂解價為 25.96 美元，布倫特-TI 為 3.65 美元，WCS 為 15.09 美元。 RIN 大約是 1.50 美元——對不起，每桶是 7.81 美元。

We continue to strive to operate our plants in a safe, reliable and environmentally responsible manner and to explore opportunities to grow our renewable business. We will continue to focus on maximizing free cash flow, which underpins our peer-leading dividend yield.

我們繼續努力以安全、可靠和對環境負責的方式運營我們的工廠，並探索發展我們的可再生能源業務的機會。我們將繼續專注於最大化自由現金流，這支撐了我們同行領先的股息收益率。

With that, operator, we're ready for questions.

有了這個，接線員，我們準備好提問了。

(Operator Instructions) Our first question comes from the line of Manav Gupta with UBS.

（操作員說明）我們的第一個問題來自瑞銀集團的 Manav Gupta。

Congrats on the hedging strategy. Very smart move on your part. Again, would this mean that going ahead for the rest of the year, we would find it difficult to model your capture rate because the hedges you have put in would definitely be in the money and giving you propping up margins as we go along. Would that be the right way to think about it?

祝賀對沖策略。你的舉動非常聰明。同樣，這是否意味著在今年餘下的時間裡，我們會發現很難對您的捕獲率進行建模，因為您投入的對沖肯定是有利可圖的，並且會在我們進行的過程中支撐您的利潤率。這是思考它的正確方法嗎？

I think that's right, Manav. The -- you don't know what our strike price was or what we bought them at, but leave it to say that we're at -- it's going to affect our results materially in the second quarter and probably the third and fourth.

我認為這是對的，馬納夫。你不知道我們的行使價是多少，也不知道我們以什麼價格購買它們，但讓它說我們在 - 這將對我們第二季度以及第三和第四季度的業績產生重大影響。

Perfect. My quick follow-up, Dave, here would be, once your PTU is up and running, and you have this catalyst change also done, should we assume that by the fourth quarter of this year, we see a competitive margin capture out of you -- your system, I don't know, maybe $0.75 or $1, but whatever that number is, but should we assume your renewable diesel results get lot more competitive with the benchmarks out there once you are done with the catalyst change as well as the PTU coming online late 3Q?

完美的。我的快速跟進，戴夫，一旦你的 PTU 啟動並運行，並且你也完成了這個催化劑變化，我們是否應該假設到今年第四季度，我們會看到你的競爭利潤率-- 你的系統，我不知道，可能是 0.75 美元或 1 美元，但不管這個數字是多少，但我們是否應該假設你的可再生柴油結果在你完成催化劑更換以及PTU 將在第三季度晚些時候上線？

Yes, I think that's a good assumption. The PTU should add, as I mentioned, about 30% on our capture rate. Today, we're running in the low 20s on capture. And we think that will bring us up to 50. The catalyst change itself has 2 elements to it. Run length, we're predicting to be probably 2x or 3x better than what we've been getting so far, and it also improves the distillate yield substantially. So that will move capture up also.

是的，我認為這是一個很好的假設。正如我提到的，PTU 應該增加我們捕獲率的大約 30%。今天，我們在捕獲方面處於低 20 年代。我們認為這將使我們達到 50。催化劑變化本身有兩個要素。運行長度，我們預測可能比我們目前得到的好 2 倍或 3 倍，而且它還大大提高了餾出物收率。這樣一來，捕獲也會向上移動。

Perfect. Congrats on a good quarter and congrats on the very smart hedging strategy.

完美的。祝賀一個好的季度，並祝賀非常聰明的對沖策略。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Our next question comes from the line of Neil Mehta with Goldman Sachs.

我們的下一個問題來自 Neil Mehta 與 Goldman Sachs 的對話。

Dave, you've got a unique perspective on what's going on in the industrial economy just given where your assets sit and your higher distillate leverage. I just love your perspective on the individual end markets of demand, and where do you see some of the stuff trending?

戴夫，鑑於您的資產所在位置和較高的餾分油槓桿率，您對工業經濟中正在發生的事情有獨特的看法。我喜歡你對個別終端需求市場的看法，你在哪裡看到一些趨勢？

Well, Neil, I think if you look at the Mid-Con, it's kind of a little bit different than what the rest of the United States looks like. I mean we're at low levels. If you look back 5 years, we're very low on inventory on gas, which is extremely unusual this time of the year. So it tells me demand has been good. And in fact, if you look at it, liftings in the Magellan system are very similar to what they've always been, even pre-COVID post-COVID, all the way through. On distillate, again, distillate has been extremely strong. The basis has been in the teens over the NYMEX for most of the quarter. Sometimes it hit as high as $0.35, which tells me that there was a lot of turnarounds going on and a lot of interruptions in the first quarter from our competitors and other refiners in the system.

好吧，尼爾，我想如果你看看 Mid-Con，它與美國其他地區的情況有點不同。我的意思是我們處於低水平。如果你回顧 5 年，我們的天然氣庫存非常低，這在每年的這個時候都非常不尋常。所以它告訴我需求一直很好。事實上，如果你看一下，Magellan 系統中的提升與它們一直以來的情況非常相似，甚至在 COVID 之前和 COVID 之後，一直如此。在餾出物方面，餾出物再次非常強烈。在本季度的大部分時間裡，基礎一直在 NYMEX 的十幾歲。有時它高達 0.35 美元，這告訴我，第一季度我們的競爭對手和系統中的其他煉油商進行了很多周轉和中斷。

Even though we had a turnaround that it was -- even though it was a fairly small turnaround, it's just the coker, we still were cut back on rates and still had a very, very good quarter. I think, in general, trucking volumes are down. I think all the data shows that. From an industrial standpoint, it's not real strong. I mean all of the indicators are there that the market is somewhat down on distillate. And that's the main reason we employed some of the hedges we did just because we saw that coming. And still there's 2 million barrels of refining capacity around the world that's about to come on.

儘管我們有一個轉機——儘管這是一個相當小的轉機，它只是焦化器，我們仍然削減了利率並且仍然有一個非常非常好的季度。我認為，總的來說，卡車運輸量在下降。我認為所有數據都表明了這一點。從工業的角度來看，它並不真正強大。我的意思是，所有指標都表明市場對餾分油有所下跌。這就是我們採用我們所做的一些對沖的主要原因，因為我們看到了這一點。全球仍有 200 萬桶煉油能力即將到來。

The U.S. looks to me to be about flat with new start-ups and shutdowns, but it's the rest of the world that's where the incremental capacity is going to come from. And a lot of those are export refineries. So it's -- even though our demand is strong, I think the world is seeing a bit of a slow.

在我看來，美國的新啟動和關閉情況基本持平，但增量產能將來自世界其他地區。其中很多是出口煉油廠。所以它是 - 儘管我們的需求很強勁，但我認為世界的發展速度有點慢。

Helpful perspective. The follow-up is, just on the dividend, Dave, it's been a couple of quarters now where it's been $0.50 a share, and the implied dividend yield on the stock is now close to 8%. You haven't been afraid to move that up and down, but just from where you sit, do you feel like the $0.50 dividend a quarter is something that you can sustain in the current market environment?

有幫助的觀點。後續行動是，就股息而言，戴夫，現在已經有幾個季度是每股 0.50 美元，股票的隱含股息收益率現在接近 8%。你並不害怕上下移動它，但就你所處的位置而言，你覺得在當前的市場環境下，每季度 0.50 美元的股息是你可以維持的嗎？

Well, I think -- I don't think that will change unless we restructure corporation a little bit. If we do the spin-off, I think we'll have to look at the dividend again because that's just the effect of doing the spin-off. But we're a cash machine. That's what we're here for. And we give out either be our regular or special. We don't do many stock buybacks because we just don't think that's really necessarily in the best interest of our shareholders. And we're going to give it back as dividends or specials.

好吧，我認為 - 我認為除非我們對公司進行一些重組，否則這不會改變。如果我們進行分拆，我認為我們將不得不再次考慮股息，因為這只是進行分拆的效果。但我們是提款機。這就是我們來這裡的目的。我們發出的是我們的常規或特殊。我們不進行很多股票回購，因為我們認為這不一定符合我們股東的最佳利益。我們將把它作為股息或特價返還。

Our next question comes from the line of John Royall with JPMorgan.

我們的下一個問題來自摩根大通的 John Royall。

So maybe just a follow-up on that last discussion on dividends. Maybe you can just give us some updated thoughts on the potential for specials. I think Dave referred to the specials from last year as kind of one-offs on the prior conference call, and correct me if I'm mischaracterizing that. But you did have over $200 million of free cash in 1Q, including the UAN tax payment, and you've locked in some hedges in the future. And so any updated thoughts on the propensity to pay out some of that with a special going forward?

因此，也許只是對上次關於股息的討論的後續行動。也許你可以給我們一些關於特價商品潛力的最新想法。我認為戴夫在之前的電話會議上將去年的特價商品稱為一次性商品，如果我對此有錯誤的描述，請糾正我。但你在第一季度確實有超過 2 億美元的自由現金，包括 UAN 稅款，而且你在未來鎖定了一些對沖。那麼關於支付其中一些費用的傾向有什麼最新的想法嗎？

Well, I think the specials, as I mentioned before, was really around a unique set of market conditions. I've been in this business a long time, and I've never seen cracks where they were for a pretty sustained period of time in 2022. And that's why we did specials. We didn't think about raising the regular up to that because we didn't think it was sustainable. And I think the same situation is here. As you know, we're going to take it quarter by quarter and the Board looks at it very closely. We're managing cash to levels we think we need to avoid using our revolver unless we absolutely have to. And that's just the point of view we have. So specials will come and go there -- if the market is remarkable, and we have the cash on the balance sheet to (inaudible) out, we will.

好吧，正如我之前提到的，我認為特價實際上是圍繞一組獨特的市場條件。我從事這項業務已經很長時間了，而且我從未在 2022 年相當持續的一段時間內看到裂縫所在的位置。這就是我們做特價的原因。我們沒有考慮將常規費用提高到那個水平，因為我們認為這是不可持續的。我認為這裡也有同樣的情況。如您所知，我們將逐季度進行，董事會會非常密切地關注它。我們正在將現金管理到我們認為需要避免使用左輪手槍的水平，除非我們絕對必須這樣做。這就是我們的觀點。所以特價商品會來來去去——如果市場表現出色，而且我們資產負債表上有現金可以（聽不清），我們會的。

Great. That's helpful. And then on the monetization of the tax credits at UAN, how do those work in general? And how do you -- how do they impact future cash flows at UAN in terms of what you're giving up? And then following the $19 million payment in 1Q, how should we think about the potential for future payments and timing there?

偉大的。這很有幫助。然後關於 UAN 稅收抵免的貨幣化，這些一般是如何運作的？你如何 - 就你放棄的內容而言，它們如何影響 UAN 的未來現金流？然後在第一季度支付 1900 萬美元之後，我們應該如何考慮未來支付的可能性和時間？

Yes, I'll take this one. So really, what we had in place previously was an existing CO2 sales contract with a counterparty. And we ended up contributing that sales contract to a JV with the same counterparty. And as a result, it allowed the tax equity investor to claim those credits that we're receiving for the sequestration activity. So what occurred is the contract was deemed a value of $46 million. We put that as deferred revenue on our balance sheet and recognized an equity method investment of $46 million. The cash receipt of $19 million, there was $18 million net of fees, was really just the first payment in the string of payments we expect to receive associated with the JV. And that payment drew down some of the equity method investment.

是的，我要這個。因此，實際上，我們之前擁有的是與交易對手的現有 CO2 銷售合同。我們最終將該銷售合同貢獻給了與同一交易對手的合資企業。結果，它允許稅收股權投資者申請我們為封存活動收到的那些信用。所以發生的是合同被認為價值 4600 萬美元。我們將其作為遞延收入記入資產負債表，並確認了 4600 萬美元的權益法投資。 1900 萬美元的現金收入，扣除費用後為 1800 萬美元，實際上只是我們預計將收到的與合資企業相關的一系列付款中的第一筆付款。而這筆付款提取了一些權益法投資。

On a go-forward basis, we will recognize that deferred revenue off our balance sheet into other income for our Fertilizer segment, call it $1 million, $1.5 million each quarter. And there will be periodic payments each quarter as well as opportunity for milestone payments annually. There will be a difference between what's going through income and what we receive in cash. But obviously, from the CVR Partners' perspective, they'll take that into consideration when they are looking at their cash available.

在前進的基礎上，我們將把資產負債表上的遞延收入確認為化肥部門的其他收入，稱為 100 萬美元，每個季度 150 萬美元。每個季度都會有定期付款，每年都有里程碑付款的機會。收入和我們收到的現金之間會有差異。但顯然，從 CVR Partners 的角度來看，他們在查看可用現金時會考慮到這一點。

Our next question comes from the line of Matthew Blair with Tudor, Pickering, Holt.

我們的下一個問題來自馬修布萊爾與都鐸、皮克林、霍爾特的對話。

Dave, you mentioned the benefits on premium gasoline rolling through your system. Can you talk about the drivers for these wide octane spreads? And do you think that's sustainable for the rest of the year?

戴夫，你提到了優質汽油在你的系統中流動的好處。您能談談這些寬辛烷值差的驅動因素嗎？你認為這在今年餘下的時間裡是否可持續？

Well, the group is kind of -- is a little bit unique in terms of premium. It sort of gets real long or gets real short. It's just happened to be -- been very short in the first quarter. And what usually cures it is a big shipment coming up from the Gulf via Explorer into the back -- into Tulsa in the back of our markets. And that just didn't happen very much this year. Either they had better export markets or something off the Gulf. And even though the [ARP] is pretty wide, the shipments just didn't come. So it kind of played into our hand. We have the ability to make quite a bit of premium if the margin is there. And we use our CCR reformers to make that material and it just happened to be available at the time.

好吧，這個集團有點——在溢價方面有點獨特。它有點長或短。恰好是 - 第一季度非常短。通常治愈它的是大量貨物從海灣通過探索者到達後方——進入我們市場後方的塔爾薩。而今年這種情況並沒有發生太多。他們要么有更好的出口市場，要么有海灣以外的地方。儘管 [ARP] 範圍很廣，但出貨量並沒有到來。所以它有點像我們的手。如果有利潤，我們有能力賺取相當多的溢價。我們使用我們的 CCR 重整器來製造這種材料，它恰好在當時可用。

It could go anywhere from -- I've seen as low as $0.07 to all the way to $0.55. In fact, we saw some $0.50 spreads in the first quarter.

它可以從任何地方——我看到低至 0.07 美元一直到 0.55 美元。事實上，我們在第一季度看到了大約 0.50 美元的價差。

Okay. And as a follow-up on that, are you fully compliant on the Tier 3 low sulfur gasoline specs? Or are you in the market having to buy those credits?

好的。作為後續行動，您是否完全符合 Tier 3 低硫汽油規格？還是您在市場上必須購買這些積分？

No, we're fully compliant. We actually sell some credits, occasionally.

不，我們完全合規。我們實際上偶爾會出售一些積分。

Okay. Sounds good. And then what are your thoughts on this E15 blend waiver for the summer? Do you think that will have a material impact on either gasoline demand or D6 RIN production?

好的。聽起來不錯。那麼您對夏季的 E15 混合豁免有何看法？您認為這會對汽油需求或 D6 RIN 生產產生重大影響嗎？

Well, it's going to make some more D6's, I think, for sure. But you got to remember that only 5% of the convenience stores even offer E15. So it's limited in its reach into the market. And I don't know who buys it for what reason, but the typical discount is $0.02, $0.03. It's not like it's a (inaudible). And if you include the mileage deduction you get with it, it's probably a loser for most people. But I don't expect it to do a whole lot.

好吧，我認為肯定會製造更多的 D6。但你要記住，只有 5% 的便利店甚至提供 E15。因此，它進入市場的範圍有限。我不知道是誰出於什麼原因購買它，但典型的折扣是 0.02 美元、0.03 美元。這不像是（聽不清）。而且，如果您包括由此獲得的里程扣除，那麼對於大多數人來說，這可能是一個失敗者。但我不希望它做很多事情。

Our next question comes from the line of Paul Cheng with Scotiabank.

我們的下一個問題來自豐業銀行的 Paul Cheng。

Dave, I know you're not going to tell us too much detail on the hedging. But can you tell us that the gasoline and (inaudible) being hedged 25% of your future output or that 1 is being hedged more than the other?

戴夫，我知道你不會告訴我們太多關於對沖的細節。但是你能告訴我們，汽油和（聽不清）被對沖了你未來產出的 25%，或者 1 比另一個被對沖的更多嗎？

Well, I think we did a combination of all. We did 2-on-1s, we did some distillate, we did some gas. So it's a wide variety, just depending on what our strike price was at the time. And I'm really not going to get into all the details of exact volumes.

好吧，我想我們做了所有的結合。我們做了 2 對 1，我們做了一些餾分油，我們做了一些氣體。所以它的種類繁多，只是取決於我們當時的行使價。而且我真的不打算深入了解確切數量的所有細節。

Okay. And when -- I just want to clarify that when Dane was talking about $95 million on the RIN cost for the quarter, does that include the RIN you generate from the RD or that's excluding the RIN you generate from the RD?

好的。什麼時候——我只想澄清一下，當 Dane 談到本季度的 9500 萬美元 RIN 成本時，這是否包括您從 RD 生成的 RIN，或者不包括您從 RD 生成的 RIN？

So Paul, the $95 million is the refinery's obligation, excluding the RIN from the RD. That's assuming they're just buying the RIN from the RD on like an open market transaction. They still have to be costed for that.

所以保羅，9500 萬美元是煉油廠的義務，不包括 RD 中的 RIN。這是假設他們只是像公開市場交易一樣從 RD 購買 RIN。他們仍然需要為此付出代價。

I see. And also that, just clarify that, I mean, in the past, I think you have the shipping history to get about 30,000 barrels per day of the WCS and you just sold most of them at (inaudible) and [won] a little bit in the cost of it. Are you still doing that and getting about 30,000 barrels per day, which is included in your results?

我懂了。而且，只是澄清一下，我的意思是，在過去，我認為你有 WCS 每天大約 30,000 桶的運輸歷史，你只是在（聽不清）和 [贏取] 一點點出售其中的大部分在它的成本。您是否仍在這樣做並每天獲得約 30,000 桶，這已包含在您的結果中？

Yes. Typically, we'll get 25 on the Keystone side and 5 on the Spearhead side. But -- and we are -- we're contracted for 10 on the Spearhead side. But we run it opportunistically. If it's in the money, we will run it. And of course, we had a coker turnaround in the first quarter. So we minimized the runs during that period of time. And now it's basically a push on whether you run it or not just where the spreads are and what we can sell it for in Cushing. So we're not running any now. We don't plan on running for the next month as long as the spread stays where it is.

是的。通常，我們會在 Keystone 側獲得 25 個，在 Spearhead 側獲得 5 個。但是——我們是——我們在 Spearhead 方面簽訂了 10 人的合同。但是我們會投機取巧地運行它。如果它在金錢上，我們將運行它。當然，我們在第一季度實現了焦化轉機。所以我們盡量減少了那段時間的運行。現在它基本上是在推動你是否運行它，只是價差在哪里以及我們可以在庫欣出售它的價格。所以我們現在不運行。只要點差保持不變，我們就不會計劃下個月運行。

Right. Final 1 for me. What's the sustaining CapEx for the corporation now going forward? And that also, on the renewable, maybe I missed it. Did you tell us that what is the gross margin and the net -- and the pretax income for that operation in the first quarter?

正確的。最後 1 對我來說。公司現在的持續資本支出是多少？而且，關於可再生能源，也許我錯過了。您是否告訴我們第一季度該業務的毛利率和淨利潤以及稅前收入是多少？

We haven't been disclosing that until we break it out as a segment, which we plan to do probably at the end of the year or start of next year.

在我們將其分解為一個細分市場之前，我們一直沒有披露這一點，我們計劃可能在今年年底或明年年初這樣做。

Okay. And how about sustaining CapEx?

好的。維持資本支出又如何？

Yes. Sustaining CapEx for the corporation, we just say, it's $80 million to $100 million, Paul.

是的。維持公司的資本支出，我們只是說，這是 8000 萬到 1 億美元，保羅。

We have reached the end of the question-and-answer session. I would now like to turn the floor back over to management for closing comments.

我們已經結束了問答環節。我現在想將發言權交還給管理層以徵求結束意見。

Again, I'd like to thank you all for your interest in CVR Energy. Additionally, I'd like to thank our employees for their hard work and commitment towards safety -- safe, reliable and environmentally responsible operations. We look forward to reviewing our second quarter 2023 results during our next earnings call. Have a great day.

再次感謝大家對 CVR Energy 的關注。此外，我要感謝我們的員工的辛勤工作和對安全的承諾——安全、可靠和對環境負責的運營。我們期待在下一次財報電話會議上回顧我們 2023 年第二季度的業績。祝你有美好的一天。

Ladies and gentlemen, this does conclude today's teleconference. You may disconnect your lines at this time. Thank you for your participation, and have a wonderful day.

女士們，先生們，今天的電話會議到此結束。此時您可以斷開線路。感謝您的參與，祝您有美好的一天。