CuriosityStream Inc (CURI) 2024 Q4 法說會逐字稿

完整原文

使用警語:中文譯文來源為 Google 翻譯,僅供參考,實際內容請以英文原文為主

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Good afternoon. My name is Christa, and I will be your conference operator today. I'd like to welcome everyone to the CuriosityStream fourth quarter and full year 2024 earnings conference call. Please note that this that today's call is being recorded. (Operator Instructions)

    午安.我叫克里斯塔,今天我將擔任您的會議主持人。歡迎大家參加 CuriosityStream 2024 年第四季和全年財報電話會議。請注意,今天的通話正在錄音。(操作員指示)

  • I will now turn the call over to Brett Maas, with CuriosityStream’s Investor Relations. You may begin your conference.

    現在我將把電話轉給 CuriosityStream 投資者關係部門的 Brett Maas。您可以開始您的會議了。

  • Brett Maas - Investor Relations

    Brett Maas - Investor Relations

  • Thank you, and welcome to CuriosityStream's discussion of its fourth quarter and full-year 2024 financial results. Leading the discussion today are Clint Stinchcomb, CuriosityStream's Chief Executive Officer; and Brady Hayden, CuriosityStream's Chief Financial Officer. Following management’s prepared remarks, we will be happy to take your questions. But first, I'll review the safe harbor statement.

    謝謝,歡迎參加 CuriosityStream 對其 2024 年第四季和全年財務表現的討論。今天主持討論的是 CuriosityStream 執行長 Clint Stinchcomb;以及 CuriosityStream 的財務長 Brady Hayden。在管理層準備好發言之後,我們將很樂意回答您的問題。但首先,我將回顧安全港聲明。

  • During this call, we may make statements related to our business that are forward-looking statements under the federal securities laws. These statements are not guarantees of future performance, but rather are subject to a variety of risks, uncertainties, and assumptions. Our actual results could differ materially from expectations reflected in any forward-looking statements. Please be aware that any forward-looking statements reflect management's’ current views only and the company undertakes no obligation to revise or update these statements nor to make additional forward-looking statements in the future.

    在本次電話會議中,我們可能會做出與我們的業務相關的聲明,根據聯邦證券法,這些聲明屬於前瞻性聲明。這些聲明並非對未來表現的保證,而是受各種風險、不確定性和假設的影響。我們的實際結果可能與任何前瞻性陳述中反映的預期有重大差異。請注意,任何前瞻性陳述僅反映管理階層的當前觀點,本公司不承擔修改或更新這些陳述或在未來做出額外前瞻性陳述的義務。

  • For a discussion of the material risks and other important factors that could affect our actual results, please refer to our SEC filings available on the SEC website and on our Investor Relations website as well as the risks and other important factors discussed in today's press release. Additional information will also be set forth in our annual report on Form 10-K for the fiscal year ended December 31, 2024, when filed.

    有關可能影響我們實際結果的重大風險和其他重要因素的討論,請參閱美國證券交易委員會網站和投資者關係網站上提供的美國證券交易委員會文件以及今天的新聞稿中討論的風險和其他重要因素。其他資訊也將在我們提交的截至 2024 年 12 月 31 日的財政年度的 10-K 表年度報告中列出。

  • In addition, reference will be made to non-GAAP financial measures. A reconciliation of these non-GAAP measures to comparable GAAP measures can be found on our website at investors.curiositystream.com. Unless otherwise stated, all comparisons will be against our results for the comparable 2023 period.

    此外,也將參考非公認會計準則財務指標。您可以在我們的網站 investors.curiositystream.com 上找到這些非 GAAP 指標與可比較 GAAP 指標的對帳表。除非另有說明,所有比較都將針對我們 2023 年可比較期間的結果。

  • Now I'll turn the call over to Clint. Clint, the floor is yours.

    現在我將把電話轉給克林特。克林特,現在輪到你了。

  • Clinton Stinchcomb - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Clinton Stinchcomb - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Thank you, Brett. We took big steps forward in 2024. To speak plainly, we delivered a year-over-year cash flow increase of about $26 million in 2024. More specifically, we lost about $16 million in cash in '23 and we made about $10 million in 2024. We did this by executing on the cost rationalization we promised and by securing higher-margin revenue across our subscription services, which represent recurring revenue; and also, in our advertising and licensing initiatives, which represent largely variable revenue. I'm gratified to share that 2025 will be a return to topline growth and continued bottom line growth.

    謝謝你,布雷特。2024年,我們邁出了一大步。簡單地說,2024 年我們的現金流年增了約 2,600 萬美元。更具體地說,我們在 2023 年損失了約 1,600 萬美元現金,而在 2024 年我們賺了約 1,000 萬美元。我們透過履行承諾的成本合理化以及確保訂閱服務的更高利潤收入(代表經常性收入)來實現這一目標;此外,我們的廣告和授權計劃也代表了很大程度上的可變收入。我很高興地告訴大家,2025 年我們的營業額將恢復成長,利潤也將持續成長。

  • Q4 we delivered our ninth straight quarter of increased cash flow and as such, our highest ever adjusted free cash flow at $3.3 million. Our top line revenue also exceeded our guidance. Our subscription revenue grew both sequentially and year-over-year. Our variable revenue grew sequentially, and while down slightly from the prior year quarter, we believe it is important and helpful to understand that by increasing our overall roster and categories of partners, which enabled higher margin revenue, we laid additional and critical groundwork for heavy overall improvement in 2025.

    第四季度,我們的現金流連續第九個季度增加,因此,我們的調整後自由現金流達到了歷史最高水平,達到 330 萬美元。我們的營業收入也超出了我們的預期。我們的訂閱收入環比和年成長。我們的可變收入環比增長,雖然比去年同期略有下降,但我們認為,重要的是要了解,透過增加我們的整體名冊和合作夥伴類別,從而實現更高的利潤收入,我們為 2025 年的整體大幅改善奠定了額外和關鍵的基礎。

  • Our confidence in 2025 is driven by five factors. Number one, we aggregated and amassed rights to hundreds of thousands of hours of monetizable video and audio, which we're putting to work on our own platforms and in licensing agreements.

    我們對2025年的信心源自於五個因素。首先,我們匯總並累積了數十萬小時可貨幣化視訊和音訊的版權,並將其用於我們自己的平台和許可協議中。

  • Our licensing agreements are with both traditional media partners and technology partners that are in need of content to train and fine-tune large language models to accelerate their AI product rollouts in an environment of increasing competition. Over the past handful of months, we have delivered and licensed over 8 million minutes of video and audio, and we are in the process of delivering much more. We have much greater visibility today than three, six and nine months ago in regard to what is possible here.

    我們的授權協議是與傳統媒體合作夥伴和技術合作夥伴簽訂的,他們需要內容來訓練和微調大型語言模型,以便在日益激烈的競爭環境中加速他們的人工智慧產品的推出。在過去的幾個月裡,我們已經交付並授權了超過 800 萬分鐘的視頻和音頻,並且我們正在交付更多內容。與三個月、六個月和九個月前相比,我們今天對這裡可能發生的情況有了更清晰的認識。

  • Number two, our overall annualized operational costs are significantly lower than our recurring revenue. This dynamic ensures a hard minimum of annual free cash flow and empowers us with the flexibility to take some calculated swings. Through enhanced simplification and optimization practices, made much easier by improving AI tools, we're continuing to reduce costs while not negatively impacting growth.

    第二,我們的整體年度營運成本明顯低於我們的經常性收入。這種動態確保了年度自由現金流的最低限度,並使我們能夠靈活地採取一些經過計算的波動。透過增強簡化和優化實踐,透過改進人工智慧工具變得更加容易,我們將繼續降低成本,同時不會對成長產生負面影響。

  • Number three, falling translation costs driven by AI. While we can’t yet dub and subtitle all of our content through synthetic AI solutions we can for certain subsets, like natural history films with the Voice of God narration. We are beginning to translate more subgenres of content within and beyond our current 12 languages. We believe increased localization will be particularly catalytic to factual programming like ours as it travels well, as evidenced by our subscribers in 176 different countries.

    第三,人工智慧推動翻譯成本下降。雖然我們還不能透過合成人工智慧解決方案為所有內容配音和製作字幕,但我們可以為某些子集配音和製作字幕,例如帶有上帝之聲旁白的自然歷史電影。我們開始翻譯目前 12 種語言之內和之外的更多子類型的內容。我們相信,加強在地化對於像我們這樣的紀實節目來說將起到特別大的催化作用,因為它的傳播非常順利,我們的訂閱用戶遍布 176 個不同的國家就證明了這一點。

  • Number four, new currency rollouts. In light of our existing global subscriber base and worldwide appeal, we plan to add 20 to 30 new currency opportunities for our subscribers this year.

    第四,推出新貨幣。鑑於我們現有的全球用戶群和全球吸引力,我們計劃今年為用戶增加 20 到 30 種新的貨幣機會。

  • Number five, enhanced talent density. While we always have ample room for improvement, our high concentration of skilled, motivated and enthusiastic team members is generating increased productivity, innovation, faster decision-making, faster execution, faster fixing of mistakes, and we believe a competitive advantage for CuriosityStream by enabling us to achieve more with less and to quickly adapt to evolving opportunities. While it's’ not a metric we obsess over, we believe our revenue per FTE is among the highest in our competitive set.

    第五,增強人才密度。雖然我們始終有足夠的改進空間,但我們高度集中的技術嫻熟、積極主動且充滿熱情的團隊成員正在提高生產力、創新能力、加快決策速度、加快執行速度、加快錯誤修復速度,並且我們相信,CuriosityStream 的競爭優勢使我們能夠以更少的投入實現更多的目標,并快速適應不斷變化的機遇。雖然這不是我們痴迷的指標,但我們相信我們的每位全職員工的收入在我們的競爭者中是最高的。

  • Following our annual dividend review meeting in January and in accordance with historical best practices of confident dividend paying companies, we announced an increase from $0.10 to $0.12 for dividend holders in Q1 2025. We subsequently announced an upwardly revised increase to $0.16 for shareholders through 2025, which we plan to pay from operations in light of our enhanced visibility into certain third-party agreements and our overall pipeline.

    在我們 1 月份的年度股息審查會議之後,並根據有信心支付股息的公司的歷史最佳實踐,我們宣佈在 2025 年第一季度將股息持有人的股息從 0.10 美元增加到 0.12 美元。隨後,我們宣布將股東分紅上調至 2025 年的 0.16 美元,鑑於我們對某些第三方協議和整體管道的了解程度有所提高,我們計劃從營運中支付這筆分紅。

  • We believe this dividend, beginning with $0.04 per share this quarter on March 28, is a great way to reward our investors and our employees and to raise the broader global profile of CuriosityStream. Today, in addition to participating in the growth potential of a vibrant organization at the intersection of content and generative AI, shareholders can enjoy a return comparable to cash and other ultra-reliable investment instruments. This increase further underscores our confidence in our trajectory.

    我們相信,從本季 3 月 28 日開始的每股 0.04 美元的股息是獎勵我們的投資者和員工以及提升 CuriosityStream 的全球知名度的絕佳方式。如今,股東除了能夠參與內容與生成性人工智慧交匯處充滿活力的組織的成長潛力之外,還能享受與現金和其他超可靠投資工具相當的回報。這一增長進一步強調了我們對自己發展軌跡的信心。

  • While I've referenced our dramatic increase in content volume, we premiered some terrific original series and feature specials. Some favorites include our rather irreverent series, Science for Evil Geniuses, starring Game of Thrones actor Paul Kaye; the feature-doc, Searching for Satoshi, about the mysterious creator of Bitcoin; a fourth season of our high school football series 4th & Forever, featuring the DeSoto Eagles; and their quest to recapture a Texas state title; our delicious evolutionary biology special, Taste: The Flavor of Life; and our epic five-part series, Fateful Planet, which brings to life the most violent chapters in earth's’ geologic history.

    當我提到我們的內容量急劇增加時,我們推出了一些非常精彩的原創系列和特輯。一些最受歡迎的作品包括我們相當不敬的系列劇《邪惡天才的科學》,由《權力的遊戲》演員保羅凱耶主演;專題紀錄片《尋找中本聰》,講述比特幣的神秘創造者;我們的高中橄欖球系列劇《4th & Forever》的第四季,以 DeSoto Eagles隊為主角;以及他們奪回德州冠軍的追求;我們的美味進化生物學特輯《味道:生命的味道》;以及我們史詩般的五集系列《命運星球》,生動地展現了地球地質歷史上最劇烈的篇章。

  • In closing, I'm proud that the well-directed work of our talent-dense team enabled us to achieve our ninth straight quarterly increase in cash flow, $3.3 million, and end the year with approximately $40 million in liquidity and no debt, $0.

    最後,我很自豪,我們才華橫溢的團隊的出色工作使我們實現了現金流連續第九個季度的增長,達到 330 萬美元,並且年底我們的流動資金約為 4000 萬美元,沒有債務,為 0 美元。

  • Looking forward, we are returning to top line revenue growth in the double digits in 2025 and we likewise anticipate double-digit annual percentage growth in free cash flow. Additionally, we continue to believe that our extensive library of now hundreds of thousands of hours of audio and video, our global appeal, our direct subscriber base and direct platforms, our multiyear third-party agreements, our public company currency and our rationalized cost structure are uniquely favorable attributes that provide us with sustainable, durable, long-term strength and exceptional flexibility.

    展望未來,我們將在 2025 年恢復兩位數的營收成長,我們同樣預期自由現金流的年增率也將達到兩位數。此外,我們始終相信,我們龐大的、目前擁有的數十萬小時音訊和視訊庫、我們的全球吸引力、我們的直接用戶群和直接平台、我們的多年期第三方協議、我們的上市公司貨幣以及我們合理化的成本結構都是獨特的有利屬性,為我們提供了可持續、持久、長期的實力和卓越的靈活性。

  • Over to my friend and colleague, Brady.

    交給我的朋友和同事布雷迪。

  • Brady Hayden - Chief Financial Officer

    Brady Hayden - Chief Financial Officer

  • Thank you, Clint, and good afternoon, everyone. Our full financial results are presented in the back of the press release that we just issued a few minutes ago as well as the 10-K that we'll file in the next few days. But let me quickly go through some of the results that we want to highlight for the fourth quarter as well as full-year 2024.

    謝謝你,克林特,大家下午好。我們的完整財務結果已在幾分鐘前剛發布的新聞稿以及我們將在未來幾天提交的 10-K 文件中列出。但請容許我快速介紹一下我們想要強調的 2024 年第四季和全年的一些結果。

  • We have remained intensely focused on expense discipline and operating efficiency, and we believe our 2024 results demonstrate the excellent progress we have made over the past several quarters. Clint said, we achieved another milestone in the fourth quarter, as adjusted free cash flow came in at $3.3 million, which exceeded guidance and was an improvement of $5.7 million from the prior year. This also represented the highest quarterly adjusted free cash flow in the company's’ history, and nine quarters of sequential improvement in this metric.

    我們一直高度重視費用紀律和營運效率,我們相信 2024 年的業績證明了我們在過去幾季取得的卓越進展。克林特表示,我們在第四季實現了另一個里程碑,調整後的自由現金流達到 330 萬美元,超過了預期,比前一年增加了 570 萬美元。這也代表了該公司歷史上最高的季度調整後自由現金流,並且該指標連續九個季度改善。

  • For the full year, adjusted free cash flow was $9.5 million, an improvement of $25.5 million from 2023. To put that number in context, we improved our 2024 cash flow by an amount equal to half of our annual revenue.

    全年調整後的自由現金流為 950 萬美元,較 2023 年增加 2,550 萬美元。具體來說,我們將 2024 年的現金流提高了相當於年收入一半的金額。

  • Looking more at revenue, fourth quarter revenue was above our guidance range, coming in at $14.1 million compared to $12.6 million in Q3 and $14.8 million in the prior-year quarter. Our direct business remained our largest revenue category, generating $9.4 million in Q4 and $38.6 million for the full year, continuing to demonstrate a predictable, recurring revenue stream.

    從營收來看,第四季營收高於我們的預期範圍,達到 1,410 萬美元,而第三季為 1,260 萬美元,去年同期為 1,480 萬美元。我們的直接業務仍然是我們最大的收入類別,第四季度創造了 940 萬美元的收入,全年創造了 3,860 萬美元的收入,繼續呈現出可預測的經常性收入流。

  • Total revenue of $51.1 million was lower for the full year, although this was mostly the result of entering fewer noncash transactions in 2024 than in 2023. If you take out these noncash deals, our 2024 revenue was essentially flat year-over-year.

    全年總收入 5,110 萬美元,有所下降,但這主要是因為 2024 年的非現金交易量比 2023 年減少。如果剔除這些非現金交易,我們 2024 年的營收將與去年同期基本持平。

  • Fourth quarter gross margin of 52% increased from 45% a year ago driven by our cost control efforts and continued reductions in content amortization. Our gross margin excluding content amortization, which focuses on the cash cost of delivering our services, was 85% in the fourth quarter compared to 80% a year ago.

    由於我們的成本控制力道和內容攤銷的持續減少,第四季毛利率從去年同期的 45% 上升至 52%。不包括內容攤銷(主要指提供服務的現金成本)的毛利率在第四季為 85%,而去年同期為 80%。

  • Turning to operating expenses. For the year, our combined expenses for advertising and marketing plus G&A were down $7.7 million or 17% compared to 2023, as we realized the ongoing benefits of our planned spending reductions. And excluding stock-based compensation, G&A declined $7.3 million or 29% in 2024. Fourth quarter adjusted EBITDA improved by $1.5 million or 43% compared with the prior year and for the full year, adjusted EBITDA improved by $14.1 million or 70%.

    談到營運費用。今年,我們的廣告、行銷以及一般行政費用合計比 2023 年下降了 770 萬美元,降幅為 17%,因為我們實現了計劃中的支出削減帶來的持續效益。不包括股票薪酬,2024 年的 G&A 費用下降了 730 萬美元,降幅為 29%。第四季調整後的 EBITDA 與上年相比增加了 150 萬美元,即 43%,全年調整後的 EBITDA 增加了 1,410 萬美元,即 70%。

  • As we've discussed before, our earnings are negatively impacted by content amortization, which is of course a noncash expense we are required to record each quarter. While we don't provide guidance with regard to adjusted EBITDA, we expect that as revenue grows and margins continue to improve, breakeven adjusted EBITDA is within our reach. And as we mentioned earlier, adjusted free cash flow was $9.5 million for the year compared with negative $16 million in 2023, an improvement of $25.5 million.

    正如我們之前討論過的,我們的收益受到內容攤銷的負面影響,這當然是我們每季必須記錄的非現金支出。雖然我們沒有提供有關調整後 EBITDA 的指導,但我們預計,隨著收入成長和利潤率持續提高,盈虧平衡的調整後 EBITDA 將觸手可及。正如我們之前提到的,今年調整後的自由現金流為 950 萬美元,而 2023 年為負 1,600 萬美元,改善了 2,550 萬美元。

  • Turning to return of capital. In March 2024, we announced our dividend program, and during the year, we paid three dividends, including our September dividend of $1.4 million, bringing total dividends paid for the year to $4.1 million. We also announced in 2024 our share repurchase plan, and during the year we bought back 216,000 shares of our common stock.

    轉向資本回報。2024 年 3 月,我們宣布了股息計劃,年內我們支付了三次股息,包括 9 月份的 140 萬美元股息,使全年支付的股息總額達到 410 萬美元。我們也在 2024 年宣布了股票回購計劃,並在當年回購了 216,000 股普通股。

  • Looking forward, increasing the dividend program to $0.16 per share in 2025 would imply about a 7.5% yield based on yesterday's’ closing price of our shares. We ended the year with total cash and securities of $39.7 million and no outstanding debt. To put that into context, our cash and securities balance represents about one third of our market cap at our current share price. This, along with our confidence to continue generating strong free cash flow, further supports our dividend increase.

    展望未來,如果到 2025 年將股息計畫提高至每股 0.16 美元,則根據我們股票昨日的收盤價計算,收益率將達到 7.5% 左右。截至本財年末,我們的現金和證券總額為 3,970 萬美元,並且沒有未償還債務。具體來說,以當前股價計算,我們的現金和證券餘額約占我們市值的三分之一。這一點,加上我們繼續產生強勁自由現金流的信心,進一步支持了我們的股息成長。

  • Moving to first quarter 2025 guidance. We expect revenue in the range of $14.5 million to $15.5 million and adjusted free cash flow in the range of $1 million to $2 million. While we don't provide full year guidance, we believe we'll achieve double-digit growth in both revenue and cash flow for 2025.

    轉向 2025 年第一季指引。我們預計收入在 1450 萬美元至 1550 萬美元之間,調整後的自由現金流在 100 萬美元至 200 萬美元之間。雖然我們沒有提供全年指引,但我們相信 2025 年的收入和現金流都將實現兩位數的成長。

  • With that, we can hand it back to the operator and open it to call to questions.

    這樣,我們就可以將其交還給操作員並打開它來回答問題。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • (Operator Instructions)

    (操作員指示)

  • Patrick Sholl, Barrington Research.

    巴林頓研究公司的 Patrick Sholl。

  • Patrick Sholl - Analyst

    Patrick Sholl - Analyst

  • Hi, thank you. I was just wondering if you could talk a little bit more about the revenue expectations for Q1 in full year. So you had mentioned earlier about like separating out subscription and the advertising and content licensing as kind of recurring versus variable growth. I was just kind of wondering how you're seeing the contribution of those kind of two different types of revenue into the 2025 expectations.

    你好,謝謝。我只是想知道您是否可以再多談談全年第一季的收入預期。所以你之前提到將訂閱、廣告和內容授權分離為經常性成長而不是可變成長。我只是有點想知道您如何看待這兩種不同類型的收入對 2025 年預期的貢獻。

  • Clinton Stinchcomb - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Clinton Stinchcomb - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Yeah, thank you for the question, Pat. It's a really good one and I'm glad that you asked it. One thing that I said in my opening remarks is that, in light of our current overall annualized operational costs, these are significantly lower than our recurring revenue which we consider to be our subscription revenue. So this dynamic ensures a really hard minimum of annual free cash flow and gives us the flexibility to take some calculated swings, potentially some large swings.

    是的,謝謝你的提問,帕特。這確實是一個很好的問題,我很高興你問了這個問題。我在開場白中說過,鑑於我們目前的整體年度營運成本,這些成本明顯低於我們認為是訂閱收入的經常性收入。因此,這種動態確保了年度自由現金流的最低限度,並使我們能夠靈活地進行一些經過計算的波動,可能是一些較大的波動。

  • So when we're talking about, subscription and -- when we're talking about recurring revenue, we typically talking about anything that is subscription oriented. And so then you go to variable. So variable historically is licensing and advertising. So when we're thinking -- the question I've been asked many times is, okay, are some of these, big licensing deals that you anticipate doing this year, are those recurring? And so I think it's critical to understand this, I've done directly or been parts of hundreds and hundreds of content licensing agreements. Most of them are not recurring.

    因此,當我們談論訂閱和經常性收入時,我們通常會談論任何以訂閱為導向的東西。然後你就轉到變數了。從歷史上看,許可和廣告的變化是如此之大。所以當我們思考時——我被問過很多次的問題是,好吧,您預計今年會達成的一些大型許可交易是重複性的嗎?因此我認為理解這一點至關重要,我直接參與過數百份內容授權協議。大多數情況都不會復發。

  • So typically a company like ours is delivering content to a partner. The partner accepts the content and then we then recognize the revenue at the start of the term. It used to be upon acceptance of the content, it's now at the start of the term.

    因此,像我們這樣的公司通常會向合作夥伴提供內容。合作夥伴接受內容,然後我們在期限開始時確認收入。以前是在接受內容時,現在是在學期開始時。

  • So it's not recurring in the traditional sense, but it can become de facto recurring if we build a strong relationship with a content partner by delivering high quality diverse content on time, and at the scope and scale they're looking for.

    因此,它不是傳統意義上的重複,但如果我們與內容合作夥伴建立牢固的關係,按時、按照他們所尋求的範圍和規模提供高品質的多樣化內容,它就可以成為事實上的重複。

  • As early as we are in this practice of licensing video to non-traditional partners, for AI training purpose, we've already had clients ask for a second and third order after we fulfilled the first. So, strong relationship with the customer, with whom we've demonstrated a track record of great performance is many times better than the contractual relationship that locks you into volume and pricing.

    早在我們將影片授權給非傳統合作夥伴用於人工智慧訓練目的時,我們就已經有客戶在完成第一個訂單後要求第二個和第三個訂單。因此,與客戶建立牢固的關係(我們已經證明了與客戶的良好業績記錄)比將您鎖定在數量和價格上的合約關係要好很多倍。

  • And so what I have said publicly, Pat, is that we anticipate the licensing revenue that we generate this year, will be -- will likely exceed our direct revenue. So we're not guiding to year end, but hopefully that gives you some sense of what's possible. We'll, continue to share each quarter the process that we're making in these areas, but we feel very good about this year and feel very good about our growth potential and I feel like we have better visibility, even though we're doing some larger individual deals than we've had in the past, it's better visibility to a high minimum threshold.

    因此,帕特,我已經公開表示,我們預計今年產生的許可收入將 - 可能會超過我們的直接收入。因此,我們不會為年底做出指導,但希望這能讓您了解可能發生的情況。我們將繼續在每個季度分享我們在這些領域的進展,但我們對今年感到非常滿意,對我們的成長潛力也非常滿意,我覺得我們有了更好的可見性,儘管我們正在進行一些比過去更大的單筆交易,但對較高的最低門檻有更好的可見性。

  • So hopefully that's helpful Pat, but in terms of like how I think of it going forward, will this be a robust business for us, three years from now, as it relates to like AI training licensing. I think I would say that you know if we're talking about, specifically and only granting an AI video training right, it probably will be, but we don't know for sure. But what we do know for sure based on decades of content and data licensing practices, is that if we control rights as we do now to hundreds of thousands of hours of quality, monetizable audio and video, there'll be considerable demand for our focus.

    所以希望這對帕特有幫助,但就我對未來的看法而言,三年後這對我們來說會是一項強勁的業務嗎,因為它與人工智慧培訓許可有關。我想說的是,如果我們正在談論,具體地並且只授予人工智慧視訊訓練權,那麼它可能會是,但我們並不確定。但根據數十年的內容和資料授權實踐,我們可以肯定的是,如果我們像現在這樣控制數十萬小時高品質、可貨幣化的音訊和視訊的版權,那麼我們關注的重點將有相當大的需求。

  • Is that helpful, Pat? Can I expand any further? -- Okay.

    這有幫助嗎,帕特?我可以進一步擴展嗎? - 好的。

  • Patrick Sholl - Analyst

    Patrick Sholl - Analyst

  • That was very helpful, and then -- I was just on just the overall subscriber activity I guess can you just talk about how you kind of approach, managing the service and kind of in light of, general increased macro uncertainty and what learnings you have from, I guess, 2022 and the bucket of uncertainty in that period?

    這非常有幫助,然後——我只是談論了整體訂閱者活動,我想您能否談談您如何管理服務,以及考慮到總體宏觀不確定性的增加,以及您從 2022 年和那段時期的不確定性中得到了什麼教訓?

  • Clinton Stinchcomb - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Clinton Stinchcomb - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Yeah. Thanks for asking. So look, if you look at the direct subscription business today, you got Netflix and you have Amazon who have escape velocity. Those are completely different animals. I think there's been some good news in the press recently for some existing legacy services like Max in regard to their subscriber numbers for a couple of reasons. One is they've embrace bundling from, kind of a partner level and also, from a wholesale level. So I think you are seeing a certain return to almost a traditional cable pay TV business, not exactly, but in part, and so that's happening.

    是的。謝謝你的詢問。所以,如果你看看今天的直接訂閱業務,你會發現 Netflix 和亞馬遜都擁有逃逸速度。它們是完全不同的動物。我認為最近媒體報導了一些關於一些現有傳統服務(如 Max)在用戶數量方面的好消息,原因有幾個。一是他們從合作夥伴層面和批發商層面接受了捆綁銷售。因此,我認為你會看到幾乎傳統的有線付費電視業務有所回歸,雖然不完全是,但部分如此,這種情況正在發生。

  • However, those are exceptions like if you look at, most of the hundreds of streaming services in business today, to the extent that they're growing, they're doing a price increase for the most part. Like you -- just look at the big ones and you can see, okay, they're the price increases are really, really frequent and then it's also -- and then also they're embracing, bundling and other approaches.

    然而,這些都是例外,如果你看一下,你會發現,目前市場上數百種串流媒體服務,隨著它們的成長,它們的價格大多都在上漲。就像你一樣——只要看看那些大公司,你就會發現,好吧,他們的價格上漲非常非常頻繁,然後他們也採用捆綁銷售和其他方法。

  • I think that, for the larger services what tends to get people to subscribe to those are big specials, well, whereas most of the consumption comes from series with lots and lots of episodes, 300, 400 typically targeted to kids or adults for sure, but what we've learned like over the last -- even just like over the last six weeks is the most streamed content series last year was Bluey. I don't know if you have young kids, Pat, but if you do, you've heard of that. 55 billion minutes over the course of the year. So that's a lot.

    我認為,對於大型服務來說,吸引人們訂閱的往往是大型特輯,而大部分消費則來自包含大量劇集的連續劇,通常有 300 到 400 集,目標受眾肯定是兒童或成人,但我們在過去六週內了解到,去年流媒體播放量最高的連續劇是《布魯伊的煩惱》。派特,我不知道你是否有年幼的孩子,但如果有的話,你一定聽過這件事。全年共 550 億分鐘。那就很多了。

  • I think, number two was Grey's Anatomy. It's a good series, there's hundreds of episodes, and that makes up a significant portion of Netflix's consumption as they've shared. So I think that -- what we're seeing is cost rationalization, a reliance on some key specials to get people to come to the service and then a robust library to keep people engaged and subscribed. And by the way, that's our strategy as well, on a slightly different level than some of these, multi-billion dollar companies, but that's the approach.

    我認為,排名第二的是《實習醫生格蕾》。這是一部精彩的連續劇,有數百集,正如他們所分享的,這佔據了 Netflix 消費的很大一部分。所以我認為——我們看到的是成本合理化,依靠一些關鍵的特色來吸引人們使用該服務,然後依靠強大的圖書館來保持人們的參與和訂閱。順便說一句,這也是我們的策略,與一些價值數十億美元的公司略有不同,但這就是方法。

  • And so, with our subscription services, we push hard with our partners and because of our global appeal, we have a number of new launches in our pipeline. But then at the same time we want to make sure that we have a certain number of great exciting specials that will generate some press to help get people into the service and then we want to make sure that we have, a really robust library and so it's part of one benefit to all of this content that we've amassed, in large part for licensing the hyper scales. We're also getting additional rights as we aggregate that content that we can put to work in AVOD, in FAST, in PayTV and then across our subscription services.

    因此,我們大力推廣我們的訂閱服務,並與合作夥伴一起努力,由於我們的全球吸引力,我們已準備好推出許多新產品。但同時,我們希望確保我們擁有一定數量的精彩特輯,這些特輯將產生一些媒體效應,幫助人們使用該服務,然後我們希望確保我們擁有一個真正強大的內容庫,因此這是我們積累的所有這些內容的益處之一,這在很大程度上是為了獲得超大規模的許可。當我們聚合這些內容時,我們也獲得了額外的權利,這些內容可以用於 AVOD、FAST、PayTV 以及我們的訂閱服務。

  • Patrick Sholl - Analyst

    Patrick Sholl - Analyst

  • Okay, thank you.

    好的,謝謝。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Laura Martin, Needham.

    勞拉·馬丁,尼德姆。

  • Laura Martin - Analyst

    Laura Martin - Analyst

  • Hi there, I think, could you update us on what's going on with your fast channels and your ad-driven businesses?

    您好,我想您能否向我們介紹一下您的快速管道和廣告驅動業務的進展?

  • Clinton Stinchcomb - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Clinton Stinchcomb - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Sure. I think that -- as it relates to our fast channels and our ad-driven businesses, again one thing we're really enthusiastic about is just in light of the high level of volume of content that we've been acquiring, aggregating over the last 9 to 10 months, in addition to being able to license that out, we're able to start putting that to work. There's a lag between obviously, when we have it and when we provide it to, one of the large platform partners and then when they publish it and then when we get paid.

    當然。我認為——就我們的快速管道和廣告驅動業務而言,我們真正熱衷的一件事是,鑑於我們在過去 9 到 10 個月中獲取和積累的大量內容,除了能夠將其授權出去之外,我們還能夠開始將其投入使用。顯然,從我們擁有它到我們將其提供給大型平台合作夥伴、他們發布它以及我們獲得報酬之間存在滯後。

  • But that lag will work itself out, but we're excited about fast for a number of reasons. One is, we're getting a number of new launches for our flagship service, and then our three US Hispanic services that are being distributed by [Estrella], we believe are outperforming others in that category and based on what we've seen today and with a number of new partner launches coming up. We're really excited about what that will yield.

    但這種滯後會自行解決,但我們對快速感到興奮,原因有很多。一是,我們的旗艦服務推出了許多新產品,然後由 [Estrella] 分銷的三項美國西班牙語服務,我們相信這些服務的表現優於同類服務中的其他服務,並且根據我們今天看到的情況以及即將推出的許多新合作夥伴的服務。我們對其結果感到非常興奮。

  • At the same time, while we're, focused on our own and operated fast channels, AVOD channels and incorporating advertising into more of our PayTV channels, there is -- in certain cases, if we think the economics makes sense, we will just do some straight licensing deals with those partners as well. So that, revenue over the course of 2025 will show up as licensing revenues compared to advertising revenue, but we continue to -- that continues to be a good, strong, durable area that will only add to our variable revenue over the course of the year. Thank you for asking, Laura.

    同時,雖然我們專注於我們自己經營的快速頻道、AVOD 頻道,並將廣告納入我們的更多付費電視頻道,但在某些情況下,如果我們認為經濟上合理,我們也會與這些合作夥伴進行一些直接的授權協議。因此,2025 年的收入將顯示為授權收入,而非廣告收入,但我們將繼續進行——這將繼續是一個良好、強勁、持久的領域,只會在一年內增加我們的可變收入。謝謝你的詢問,勞拉。

  • Laura Martin - Analyst

    Laura Martin - Analyst

  • And then my follow up is back on the data licensing. You sort of talked about a little bit, but I'm really interested in how the contracts for the tech companies, so your non-traditional endemic, are different from like your normal media licensing. It sounds like maybe they're shorter and then you do it and it's almost like a project by project, then they come back and ask for more, whereas over at Reddit, those deals are like three to five year deals. So I'm a little -- so can you describe how the tech licensing is different from your traditional media.

    然後我的後續工作又回到數據許可。您談到了一點,但我真正感興趣的是科技公司的合同,也就是非傳統的地方性合同,與正常的媒體許可有何不同。聽起來他們可能比較短,然後你就去做,幾乎就像一個項目接著一個項目,然後他們回來要求更多,而在 Reddit,這些交易就像三到五年的交易。所以我有點——那你能描述一下技術授權與傳統媒體有何不同嗎?

  • Clinton Stinchcomb - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Clinton Stinchcomb - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Yeah, I'm really glad that you asked that. And so, we don't know this for a fact, but we believe that we've probably done more in this space from a licensing standpoint than any other media company. It doesn't mean that all of the agreements that we've done have started yet, because rev rec is started, based on the term. But similar to traditional content licensing, we're delivering, an agreed upon amount of content to the partner. So just like we would deliver, 50 hours or 10 feature films to HBO, we're going to deliver a big batch, big ranging batch of content to a technology partner.

    是的,我很高興你問了這個問題。因此,我們並不確切知道這一點,但我們相信,從許可的角度來看,我們在這個領域所做的可能比任何其他媒體公司都要多。這並不意味著我們達成的所有協議都已開始,因為根據條款,rev rec 已開始。但與傳統的內容授權類似,我們向合作夥伴提供約定數量的內容。因此,就像我們向 HBO 交付 50 小時或 10 部長片一樣,我們將向技術合作夥伴交付大量、種類繁多的內容。

  • And I think the first difference were is in volume. I mean just -- the volume is just by orders of magnitude greater and obviously the price that they'll pay on a per hour basis is lower than, pay for a feature film, obviously, but provided you have the volume. You can be in really good shape.

    我認為第一個區別在於數量。我的意思是——數量級要大得多,而且顯然他們每小時支付的價格要低於一部長片的價格,當然,前提是數量要足夠。你可以擁有非常好的身材。

  • And so, we deliver the content, they accept it the revenue is recognized when the when the term starts. We have -- in a few cases, we have what might be referred to as sort of de facto, additional content delivery, based on some of the terms and conditions, but what you see in that space because there's like big tranches of needs, typically one agreement, a tranche of content, and then you get paid on that. So that's the sort of industry standard market there. But again, I cannot emphasize this enough.

    因此,我們提供內容,他們接受它,當期限開始時確認收入。在少數情況下,我們會根據某些條款和條件提供所謂的事實上的額外內容交付,但您在該領域看到的是因為存在大量需求,通常是一份協議、一份內容,然後您會因此獲得報酬。這就是那裡的行業標準市場。但我再一次強調這一點。

  • The key -- and this is the key to any like -- look I've been involved in so many content licensing agreements over the years that I've had four year agreements where, we're -- they're contractually obligated to purchase a certain amount of content from us and then they don't, because it's just lots and lots of ways to get out of that. So, my feeling is always, yes, you won't have as much contracted as possible. However, huge key, I cannot emphasize this enough, is really building a strong relationship with a partner, and delivering high quality, diverse content on time, when I say diverse, I mean like diversity of imagery and what's on the screen and movement and this type of stuff.

    關鍵——這是任何類似問題的關鍵——你看,這些年來我參與瞭如此多的內容許可協議,我有四年的協議,其中我們——他們有合約義務從我們這裡購買一定數量的內容,然後他們沒有,因為有很多很多的方法可以擺脫這種義務。所以,我的感覺始終是,是的,你不會簽訂盡可能多的合約。然而,我再怎麼強調也不為過,關鍵在於與合作夥伴建立牢固的關係,並按時提供高品質、多樣化的內容,我所說的多樣化是指圖像的多樣性、螢幕上的內容、動作的多樣性以及這類東西的多樣性。

  • If you do that, and you do it well, like you're going to do more business with them. That is an absolute -- I just think an undeniable fact, but a couple of other things I would add to that. So, I talked a little bit about like, okay, what does this look like three years from now. I think Laura, you and I were together at a conference maybe a year ago, I think out in Denver, and we were talking a little bit about what we were looking to do here, but so if you step back and say, okay if you control a lot of content, a lot of rights, like that's always going to be great.

    如果你這樣做,而且做得很好,你就會與他們做更多的生意。這是絕對的——我認為這是不可否認的事實,但我還想補充幾點。所以,我稍微談了一下,好吧,三年後這會是什麼樣子。我想,勞拉,你和我大概一年前在丹佛參加了一次會議,我們討論了我們想在這裡做什麼,但如果你退一步說,好吧,如果你控制了很多內容,很多權利,那就總是會很棒的。

  • But what we also know, what we've also learned is, because we're in this business early, the hyperscalers don't want to work with hundreds of licensers. They aren't today and they won't, and so they want to work with it at scale, with a very finite number. And then, I think lastly, something really interesting is I think I bet my life that there will be new grants of rights, 12 months from now that don't exist today in the AI space or have not been negotiated. I mean, I think if you listen to a call -- yeah, maybe, call it 18 months ago before, Reddit announced their agreement which -- again that's all, that's publishing, that's text, and that is volume at a completely different scale than anybody has, on a video basis.

    但我們也知道,我們也了解到,由於我們早期進入這個行業,超大規模企業不想與數百個授權商合作。他們今天不會這樣做,將來也不會這樣做,因此他們希望在有限的範圍內進行大規模合作。最後,我認為真正有趣的是,我想我可以用我的生命打賭,12 個月後將會出現新的權利授予,而這些權利目前在人工智慧領域並不存在或尚未經過談判。我的意思是,我認為如果你聽一個電話——是的,也許,18 個月前,Reddit 宣布了他們的協議——再說一遍,這就是全部,這就是發布,這就是文本,而且在視頻基礎上,其數量與任何人都完全不同。

  • But, I don't believe that a lot of people would have even known what an AI video training right grant was. And so, when I talk about training, like that's different than, display or what I think will be many other additional rights and ways to participate in a long term process here that will become available. So I'll just kind of leave it at that for now. Is that helpful?

    但是,我認為很多人甚至不知道人工智慧視訊訓練權利授予是什麼。因此,當我談論培訓時,這與展示或我認為的許多其他額外權利和參與長期進程的方式不同。所以我現在就先這樣吧。這樣有幫助嗎?

  • Laura Martin - Analyst

    Laura Martin - Analyst

  • Oh my god, so helpful, so interesting and so helpful, and I totally agree that these rights are going to change names and they're going to have to re-license everything they're doing today in two years, there's going to be a whole new things they want to do with them. So that makes --

    哦,天哪,太有幫助了,太有趣了,太有幫助了,我完全同意這些權利將會改變名稱,他們將不得不在兩年內重新授權他們今天所做的一切,他們將會想用它們來做全新的事情。因此這使得--

  • Clinton Stinchcomb - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Clinton Stinchcomb - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • I've never seen our IP lawyer so excited, Laura. It's fantastic.

    我從未見過我們的智慧財產權律師如此興奮,勞拉。太棒了。

  • Laura Martin - Analyst

    Laura Martin - Analyst

  • Your full employment act.

    您的充分就業法案。

  • Clinton Stinchcomb - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Clinton Stinchcomb - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Yeah, that's right.

    是的,沒錯。

  • Laura Martin - Analyst

    Laura Martin - Analyst

  • Thanks you, guys.

    謝謝你們。

  • Clinton Stinchcomb - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Clinton Stinchcomb - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Thank you, Laura.

    謝謝你,勞拉。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • We have no further questions in our queue at this time. And ladies and gentlemen, that does conclude today's conference call. Thank you for your participation, and you may now disconnect.

    目前我們沒有其他問題。女士們、先生們,今天的電話會議到此結束。感謝您的參與,您現在可以斷開連接。