Carnival PLC (CUK) 2026 Q1 法說會逐字稿

Greetings, and welcome to the Carnival Corporation first-quarter 2026 earnings conference call. (Operator Instructions) As a reminder, this conference is being recorded.

各位好，歡迎參加嘉年華集團（Carnival Corporation）2026 會計年度第一季財報電話會議。(接線員指示) 提醒各位，本次會議將被錄音。

It is now my pleasure to introduce your host, Beth Roberts, SVP, Investor Relations. Thank you, Beth. You may begin.

現在我很榮幸介紹本次會議主持人：投資人關係資深副總裁 Beth Roberts。謝謝你，Beth。你可以開始了。

Thank you. Good morning, and welcome to our first quarter 2026 earnings conference call. I'm joined today by our CEO, Josh Weinstein; our CFO, David Bernstein; and our Chair, Micky Arison. Before we begin, please note that some of our remarks on this call will be forward-looking. Therefore, I will refer you to today's press release and our filings with the SEC for additional information on factors and risks that could cause actual results to differ from our expectations.

謝謝。各位早安，歡迎參加我們 2026 會計年度第一季財報電話會議。今天與會的有我們的執行長 Josh Weinstein、財務長 David Bernstein，以及董事長 Micky Arison。在開始之前，請注意我們在本次電話會議中的部分發言將屬於前瞻性陳述。因此，我將請各位參閱今日新聞稿以及我們向美國證券交易委員會（SEC）提交的文件，以取得更多可能導致實際結果與我們預期不同之因素與風險的相關資訊。

We will be referencing certain non-GAAP financial measures, including yields, cruise costs without fuel, EBITDA, net income, ROIC and related statistics, all of which are on a net basis or adjusted as defined, unless otherwise stated. A reconciliation to U.S. GAAP is included in our earnings press release and our investor presentation. References to ticket prices, yields and cruise costs without fuel are in constant currency, unless we note otherwise. Please visit our corporate website where our earnings press release and investor presentation can be found.

我們將引用若干非 GAAP 財務衡量指標，包括收益率、扣除燃油的郵輪成本、EBITDA、淨利、ROIC 及相關統計數據；除非另有說明，以上均以淨額基礎或依定義調整後呈列。與美國 GAAP 的調節表已包含於我們的財報新聞稿與投資人簡報中。除非另有註明，對票價、收益率及扣除燃油的郵輪成本之引用均以固定匯率（constant currency）計算。請造訪我們的公司網站，可取得財報新聞稿與投資人簡報。

With that, I'd like to turn the call over to Josh.

接下來，我想把電話交給 Josh。

Thanks, Beth. Good morning, everyone, and thank you for joining us today. Before we begin, I do want to acknowledge the ongoing conflict in the Middle East and the profound human impact it's having on so many people. Our thoughts are with the brave men and women of our armed forces, with all those affected, and with the countless families and communities facing hardship during this time. Like so many around the world, we remain hopeful for a resolution that brings relief to those impacted and a lasting peace to the region.

謝謝你，Beth。各位早安，感謝今天加入我們。在開始之前，我想先提及中東地區持續的衝突，以及它對許多人造成的深遠人道影響。我們的心與我們武裝部隊中勇敢的男女同在，也與所有受影響的人同在，並與在此期間面臨困境的無數家庭與社區同在。如同世界各地許多人一樣，我們仍期盼能有一個帶來紓解、並為該地區帶來長久和平的解決方案。

Turning to our business. We are off to an excellent start to the year. First quarter results came in ahead of guidance, thanks to higher yields and better cost performance, reflecting healthy fundamentals and solid execution across the business. Close-in demand remained robust, guests continued to spend more onboard and pricing strengthened, enabling us to outperform our December guidance and deliver record first quarter revenues, net yields, operating income, EBITDA and customer deposits. We're seeing this momentum continue in onboard and pre-cruise sales.

回到我們的業務。我們今年開局非常出色。第一季結果優於指引，主要受惠於更高的收益率與更佳的成本表現，反映出健康的基本面以及全公司穩健的執行力。臨近出發日的需求依然強勁，旅客在船上持續增加消費且定價走強，使我們得以超越 12 月的指引，並創下第一季營收、淨收益率、營業利益、EBITDA 與客戶訂金的新高紀錄。我們也看到這股動能在船上與行前銷售持續延伸。

Guests are engaging earlier in the vacation journey, purchasing more inclusive packages, excursions and other experiences before they even step on board. That trend is contributing to higher onboard revenue and reflects the value guests place on the experiences our cruise lines deliver. We're also seeing it in our bookings. Bookings for current year sailings increased 10% year-over-year, adding to our record book position for the remainder of the year at historically high prices. With nearly 85% of 2026 already on the books and less inventory available than this time last year, we remain well positioned to keep improving yields as the year unfolds.

旅客在度假旅程更早階段就開始投入，甚至在登船前就購買更多全包式套裝、岸上觀光行程與其他體驗。這一趨勢推升了船上收入，也反映旅客對我們各郵輪品牌所提供體驗價值的重視。我們在預訂表現上也看到了同樣趨勢。當年度航次的預訂量年增 10%，使我們在今年剩餘期間的訂位部位再創新高，且價格處於歷史高位。由於 2026 年的訂位目前已接近 85% 入帳，且可售庫存較去年同期更少，我們仍具備良好條件，能在今年推進過程中持續提升收益率。

Cumulative future year bookings also reached a first quarter record, adding to our continued confidence in the trajectory of the business. And as a result, we are seeing it in our customer deposits, which reached a new first quarter record of almost $8 billion, surpassing last year's high watermark by nearly 10%. Now what stands out most is that we're achieving all of this against such an unpredictable macroeconomic and geopolitical backdrop. It says a great deal about the demand we continue to see across our portfolio of world-class cruise lines, about the team's ability to execute on our long-term strategy and about the progress we've made in positioning the business to perform through a wide range of environments. This start to the year also supports increasing our full year outlook operationally by approximately $150 million compared to our December view.

未來年度的累計預訂量也創下第一季新高，進一步強化我們對業務走勢的持續信心。因此，我們也反映在客戶訂金上：第一季客戶訂金創下接近 80 億美元的新高，較去年高點再提升近 10%。最值得注意的是，我們是在如此難以預測的總體經濟與地緣政治背景下達成這些成果。這充分說明我們旗下世界級郵輪品牌組合所持續展現的需求、團隊執行長期策略的能力，以及我們在讓業務能於各種環境中運作方面所取得的進展。今年的良好開局也支持我們在營運面將全年展望較 12 月的看法上調約 1.5 億美元。

That improvement helps absorb a $500 million fuel headwind albeit that is against a substantial EBITDA forecast of $7 billion, which David will walk you through in more detail. This quarter and our outlook are further evidence of how far this business has come over the last several years. Over that time, we have restructured the organization, reconstituted the global leadership of the corporation and our cruise lines, actively managed the portfolio and its assets and sharpened our commercial operations. We have also just begun to better harness the power of our unmatched Caribbean and Alaskan destination footprints, improve pricing, fortify the balance sheet and embed greater rigor across the organization. As you know, thanks to those efforts, last year, we surpassed our SEA Change objectives in roughly half the originally outlined time frame.

這項改善有助於吸收 5 億美元的燃油逆風，儘管這是建立在相當可觀的 70 億美元 EBITDA 預測之上；David 將會更詳細地為各位說明。本季表現與我們的展望，進一步證明這家公司在過去幾年已取得多大進步。在此期間，我們重整組織、重建公司與各郵輪品牌的全球領導團隊、積極管理投資組合及其資產，並強化我們的商業營運。我們也才剛開始更充分發揮我們在加勒比海與阿拉斯加無可匹敵的目的地版圖優勢、改善定價、強化資產負債表，並在全組織導入更高的紀律與嚴謹度。如各位所知，受惠於這些努力，我們去年在原先規劃時間的大約一半內，就超越了 SEA Change 的目標。

We more than doubled our ROIC, delivered our highest unit EBITDA in nearly 2 decades and meaningfully reduced our greenhouse gas intensity rate, all of which built momentum and, more importantly, reinforced that our approach is working. With this robust foundation in place, we are focused on the next chapter of value creation for Carnival. So today, we are introducing PROPEL: Powering Growth & Returns, Responsibly. By 2029, we are targeting return on invested capital above 16%, earnings per share growth of more than 50% versus 2025 and the distribution of more than 40% of our cash from operations to shareholders, or approximately $14 billion. At its core, PROPEL is about converting strong and growing demand into higher returns, earnings and cash flow while maintaining disciplined capacity growth and a strong balance sheet.

我們的 ROIC 超過倍增，創下近 20 年來最高的單位 EBITDA，並顯著降低溫室氣體排放強度率；這些成果不僅累積了動能，更重要的是，強化了我們的方法確實有效。在這個穩健基礎之上，我們正聚焦於嘉年華下一階段的價值創造。因此今天，我們推出 PROPEL：以負責任的方式驅動成長與報酬（Powering Growth & Returns, Responsibly）。到 2029 年，我們目標為投入資本報酬率（ROIC）高於 16%、每股盈餘較 2025 年成長超過 50%，並將營運現金流中超過 40% 分配給股東，約為 140 億美元。PROPEL 的核心，是在維持審慎的運能成長與強健資產負債表的同時，把強勁且成長中的需求轉化為更高的報酬、獲利與現金流。

That we see 4 primary drivers underpinning these targets. First, yield expansion. A continued focus on high-quality execution across our commercial operations will drive even more growth in same-ship demand, strong pricing, increased onboard spend and earlier guest engagement throughout the booking journey. These trends are already evident in our current performance and give us confidence in our ability to drive sustained yield improvement. Second, disciplined capacity growth and high-returning capital allocation.

我們認為有 4 項主要驅動因素支撐這些目標。第一，收益率擴張。持續聚焦於商業營運的高品質執行，將推動同船需求進一步成長、強勁定價、船上消費提升，以及旅客在整個預訂旅程中更早的互動與參與。這些趨勢已在我們目前的表現中顯現，並讓我們對推動收益率持續改善的能力充滿信心。第二，審慎的運能成長與高報酬的資本配置。

Our capacity growth remains intentionally measured with only 3 ships scheduled to enter service during the PROPEL period. At the same time, we'll be investing in return-generating modernization programs across many of our cruise lines, building on the success we are already seeing from AIDA Evolution. And the second cruise line announcing its program will be just next month, so stay tuned. Third, further monetizing our destination portfolio. We're expanding and enhancing our unique destination assets, including Celebration Key, Grand Bahama, RelaxAway, Half Moon Cay and Isla Tropicale, Roatan, along with our unrivaled Alaska land footprint to deliver differentiated guest experiences while generating attractive incremental returns.

我們的運能成長仍刻意維持在可控範圍內，在 PROPEL 期間僅規劃有 3 艘新船投入營運。同時，我們將在多個郵輪品牌推動可帶來報酬的現代化改造計畫，並延續我們已從 AIDA Evolution 看到的成功。而宣布該計畫的第二個郵輪品牌將在下個月公布，敬請期待。第三，進一步將我們的目的地投資組合變現。我們正擴建並升級我們獨特的目的地資產，包括 Celebration Key、Grand Bahama、RelaxAway、Half Moon Cay 與 Isla Tropicale、Roatan，以及我們無可匹敵的阿拉斯加陸上版圖，以提供差異化的旅客體驗，同時創造具吸引力的增量報酬。

Fourth, continued cost discipline. We remain hyper-focused on maintaining our industry-leading cost structure and driving operational efficiencies across the P&L. And all of this is supported by a phenomenal team and advancing technologies to enhance revenue and improve efficiency. Importantly, these PROPEL targets will not come at the expense of financial strength, corporate responsibility or investing in our future. We are targeting net debt-to-EBITDA of 2.75x and a reduction in greenhouse gas intensity of more than 25% versus 2019 levels.

第四，持續的成本紀律。我們仍高度專注於維持業界領先的成本結構，並在整個損益表（P&L）推動營運效率提升。而這一切都由一支卓越的團隊與持續演進的科技所支撐，以提升營收並改善效率。重要的是，這些 PROPEL 目標不會以犧牲財務實力、企業責任或對未來的投資為代價。我們的目標是淨負債對 EBITDA 比率為 2.75 倍，並將溫室氣體強度相較 2019 年水準降低超過 25%。

For us, returns, resilience and environmental stewardship go hand in hand. And further, our growing cash flow will enable us to meet these targets while reinvesting over $15 billion back into the business over this time frame. With greater financial flexibility, we have the capacity to invest in our growth, to achieve our leverage target to grow our recently reinstated dividend and to return excess capital through an opportunistic buyback program, beginning with a $2.5 billion authorization announced today. This is a balanced approach, investing for growth, increasing shareholder returns and doing so in a way that supports the long-term earnings power of our business. Accelerating returns is a natural result of that strategy and a reflection of the attractive fundamentals of our business.

對我們而言，報酬、韌性與環境管理相輔相成。此外，我們持續成長的現金流將使我們能在此期間達成這些目標，同時再投資超過 150 億美元回到業務之中。在更高的財務彈性下，我們有能力投資成長、達成槓桿目標、提高我們近期恢復發放的股利，並透過機會型庫藏股回購計畫返還多餘資本，首先是今日宣布的 25 億美元授權額度。這是一種平衡的作法：投資成長、提高股東報酬，並以支持公司長期獲利能力的方式來進行。加速回報是該策略的自然結果，也反映了我們業務具吸引力的基本面。

Our capacity growth remains measured while demand continues to expand as cruising becomes even more mainstream, as consumers are choosing to spend more of their hard-earned money on well-deserved and much-needed vacations, and as we remain underpenetrated relative to the broader vacation market. We are well positioned with a strategy that is grounded, focused, diversified across our portfolio and built for consistent execution over the long term. As we continue to monitor developments in the Middle East, we remain focused on executing on that strategy and delivering for our guests, for our shareholders and our other stakeholders. While external conditions will continue to evolve, what gives us confidence is our ability to deliver exceptional vacation experiences, operate efficiently, allocate capital with discipline and grow in a measured way. Now none of this progress happens without the dedication of our global team, the best in all of travel and leisure.

我們的運能成長仍維持審慎，而需求持續擴張，因為郵輪旅遊愈加主流，消費者選擇把更多辛苦賺來的錢花在實至名歸且迫切需要的假期上，且相較於更廣泛的度假市場，我們的滲透率仍偏低。我們具備良好定位，策略務實、聚焦，並在投資組合中多元分散，且可在長期內穩定執行。在我們持續關注中東局勢發展的同時，我們仍專注於落實該策略，並為賓客、股東及其他利害關係人交付成果。儘管外部環境將持續演變，我們有信心的原因在於：我們能提供卓越的度假體驗、有效率地營運、以紀律配置資本，並以審慎的步伐成長。而這些進展都離不開我們全球團隊的投入——他們是整個旅遊與休閒產業中最優秀的。

I want to thank our more than 160,000 team members, both ship and shore, for their hard work in delivering these first quarter results. They go above and beyond every day to deliver unforgettable happiness to our guests by providing them with extraordinary cruise vacations while honoring the integrity of every place we visit, life we touch and ocean we sail. I also want to thank our travel agent partners, our loyal guests, our investors, our destination partners and all of our stakeholders for their continued support.

我要感謝我們超過 16 萬名團隊成員，無論船上或岸上，辛勤付出以交出這些第一季成果。他們每天都超越本分，透過提供非凡的郵輪假期，為賓客帶來難忘的幸福，同時尊重我們造訪的每一個地方、觸及的每一段生命，以及航行的每一片海洋之完整性。我也要感謝我們的旅行社夥伴、忠誠的賓客、投資人、目的地合作夥伴，以及所有利害關係人持續的支持。

With that, I'll turn the call over to David to walk you through the quarter and our guidance in more detail.

接下來，我把電話交給 David，請他更詳細帶大家了解本季表現與我們的指引。

Thank you, Josh. I'll start today with a summary of our first quarter 2026 results, then I'll provide color on our full year March guidance and finish up with some additional insights into PROPEL. Once again, we delivered record first quarter operating results with strong execution, resulting in us beating guidance on revenue, costs and net income.

謝謝你，Josh。我今天先從 2026 會計年度第一季的結果摘要開始，接著補充我們全年 3 月指引的更多細節，最後再分享一些關於 PROPEL 的額外洞見。我們再次以強勁的執行力創下第一季營運成果新高，使我們在營收、成本與淨利方面皆優於指引。

Net income of $275 million was more than 55% higher than the prior year and exceeded our December guidance by $40 million or $0.03 per share. The outperformance versus December guidance was driven by 3 factors. First, revenue favorability contributed $0.04 per share as yields were up 2.7% versus the prior year on top of the more than 7% increase in the first quarter last year. This was over 100 basis points better than our December guidance, driven by continued strong close-in demand which drove higher ticket prices and stronger onboard spending. Yield improvement was driven by increases on both sides of the Atlantic.

淨利 2.75 億美元較去年同期高出逾 55%，並較我們 12 月指引高出 4,000 萬美元，或每股 0.03 美元。相較 12 月指引的超預期表現由三項因素帶動。第一，營收優於預期貢獻每股 0.04 美元，因為收益率（yield）在去年第一季已成長逾 7% 的高基期上，仍較去年同期再增 2.7%。這比我們 12 月指引好超過 100 個基點，主要受持續強勁的臨近出發需求（close-in demand）帶動，推升票價並強化船上消費。收益率改善來自大西洋兩岸的同步提升。

Second, cruise costs without fuel per available lower berth day, or ALBD, were up 5.3% versus the prior year. This is more than 0.5 point better than our December guidance and contributed $0.01 per share. This benefit was driven by cost-saving initiatives that we firmed up during the quarter. Third, the remaining $0.02 per share of operational favorability came from improvements in depreciation expense, net interest expense and fuel consumption, where we delivered a 4.7% year-over-year reduction. Total first quarter operational improvements of $0.07 per share are fully reflected in our full year guidance.

第二，不含燃油的每可用下舖日郵輪成本（cruise costs without fuel per available lower berth day，或 ALBD）較去年同期上升 5.3%。這比我們 12 月指引好超過 0.5 個百分點，並貢獻每股 0.01 美元。此一效益來自我們在本季期間進一步落實的節成本措施。第三，其餘每股 0.02 美元的營運優勢來自折舊費用、淨利息費用與燃油耗用的改善，其中燃油耗用我們達成同比下降 4.7%。第一季合計每股 0.07 美元的營運改善已完整反映在我們的全年指引中。

However, those first quarter operational improvements were partially offset by the unfavorable impact of fuel price and currency costing $0.04 per share. Turning now to our full year March guidance. Our full year guidance calls for earnings per share of $2.21. This includes the first quarter operational improvement of $0.07 per share as well as an additional $0.04 per share of improvement in depreciation expense, fuel consumption, net interest expense and income tax expense over the remaining 3 quarters of 2026. However, that $0.11 per share operational improvement for 2026 will be more than offset by a $0.38 per share headwind from higher fuel prices driven by recent geopolitical events and reflected in our March guidance.

不過，第一季的營運改善部分被燃油價格與匯率的不利影響所抵銷，合計每股 -0.04 美元。接著談我們全年 3 月指引。我們的全年指引為每股盈餘 2.21 美元。此數字包含第一季每股 0.07 美元的營運改善，以及在 2026 年剩餘三個季度中，折舊費用、燃油耗用、淨利息費用與所得稅費用合計再改善每股 0.04 美元。然而，2026 年合計每股 0.11 美元的營運改善，將被燃油價格上升所帶來的每股 0.38 美元逆風所超過；該燃油上升係由近期地緣政治事件所驅動，並已反映在我們的 3 月指引中。

Given the recent spike in volatility in fuel prices, we believe it is reasonable to assume some moderation over the balance of the year rather than base our guidance on current elevated spot prices. As a result, our guidance assumes the purchase price of fuel for the month of March and early April, Brent averaging $90 per barrel for the remainder of April and May, Brent averaging $85 per barrel for the third quarter and Brent averaging $80 per barrel for the fourth quarter. A 10% change in our fuel cost per metric ton, excluding emission allowances, for the remainder of the year impacts our bottom line by $160 million or $0.11 per share. Turning now to yield growth. Our March guidance assumes yield growth of approximately 2.75%, which is 25 basis points better than our December guidance and fully reflects the first quarter yield improvement.

鑑於近期燃油價格波動性急升，我們認為，相較於以目前偏高的即期價格作為基礎，在今年剩餘期間假設價格有所降溫是合理的。因此，我們的指引假設：3 月與 4 月初的燃油採購價格；4 月剩餘期間與 5 月布蘭特原油（Brent）平均每桶 90 美元；第三季 Brent 平均每桶 85 美元；第四季 Brent 平均每桶 80 美元。在不含排放配額的前提下，今年剩餘期間我們每公噸燃油成本若變動 10%，將影響損益 1.6 億美元，或每股 0.11 美元。接著談收益率成長。我們的 3 月指引假設收益率成長約 2.75%，較 12 月指引好 25 個基點，並已完整反映第一季的收益率改善。

Importantly, our yield assumptions for the balance of 2026 remain unchanged from our December guidance. Yield growth versus 2025 reflects both higher ticket prices and continued strength in onboard spending. It is also worth noting that full year 2026 yield growth is approximately 3.25% on a normalized basis, excluding the previously disclosed impact of the summer 2025 close-in decision to redeploy away from the planned first quarter 2026 Arabian Gulf voyages and the impacts of loyalty program accounting for Carnival Cruise Line. Cruise costs without fuel per ALBD are now expected to be up approximately 3.1%, which is 15 basis points better than our December guidance and reflects the first quarter improvement. Like yields, our cruise costs assumptions for the balance of 2026 remain unchanged from our December guidance.

重要的是，我們對 2026 年剩餘期間的收益率假設，與 12 月指引相比維持不變。相較 2025 年的收益率成長，反映了票價提高以及船上消費持續強勁。另外值得注意的是，在排除先前揭露的影響後，2026 全年收益率成長在常態化基礎上約為 3.25%，其中包含：2025 年夏季臨近出發（close-in）決策所造成、將原規劃於 2026 年第一季的阿拉伯灣航程改為其他部署的影響，以及嘉年華郵輪（Carnival Cruise Line）忠誠計畫會計處理的影響。不含燃油的每 ALBD 郵輪成本目前預期約上升 3.1%，較 12 月指引好 15 個基點，並反映第一季的改善。如同收益率，我們對 2026 年剩餘期間的郵輪成本假設，與 12 月指引相比維持不變。

On a normalized basis, cruise costs without fuel per ALBD are up just 2.3% after factoring in the partial year of operating expenses associated with Celebration Key, Grand Bahama and RelaxAway, Half Moon Cay as well as the timing of certain expenses between the years. In addition, you will see that our cost growth decelerates from the first half of 2026 to the second half. The main drivers of the deceleration are the sliding of some costs from the fourth quarter of 2025 to the first half of 2026, which will impact our first half, second half comparison, as we indicated on the December earnings call. The full year operation of Celebration Key, Grand Bahama, which opened in July 2025, will also impact our first half, second half comparison. This comparison is also affected by the seasonalization of advertising and repair and maintenance spending.

以標準化基礎計算，在納入 Celebration Key、Grand Bahama 與 RelaxAway, Half Moon Cay 相關的部分年度營運費用，以及年度間部分費用認列時點差異後，不含燃油的每 ALBD 郵輪成本僅上升 2.3%。此外，您會看到我們的成本成長率從 2026 年上半年到下半年有所放緩。放緩的主要驅動因素，是如我們在 12 月財報電話會議所指出，部分成本從 2025 年第四季遞延至 2026 年上半年，這將影響我們上半年與下半年的比較。於 2025 年 7 月開幕的 Celebration Key、Grand Bahama 在 2026 年的全年營運，也將影響我們上半年與下半年的比較。此比較亦受到廣告以及維修與保養支出季節性分布的影響。

I will close with a few additional thoughts on PROPEL. As Josh said, at its core, PROPEL is about converting strong and growing demand into higher returns and stronger operating cash flow while maintaining disciplined capacity growth and a strong balance sheet. Our confidence in achieving our PROPEL targets is grounded in the same strategies, priorities and disciplined execution that have delivered strong results and momentum in recent years. It is also supported by realistic assumptions and performance metrics that give us confidence in the path ahead. From 2026 through 2029, we expect moderate yield growth on a CAGR basis and low single-digit CAGR growth in cruise costs, excluding fuel per available lower berth day.

最後我再補充幾點關於 PROPEL 的想法。如 Josh 所說，PROPEL 的核心，是在維持審慎的運能成長與強健的資產負債表之下，把強勁且持續成長的需求轉化為更高的報酬與更強的營運現金流。我們對達成 PROPEL 目標的信心，建立在近年來帶來強勁成果與動能的同樣策略、優先事項與紀律執行之上。同時也有務實的假設與績效衡量指標作為支撐，讓我們對前方路徑更具信心。從 2026 年到 2029 年，我們預期收益率（yield）以 CAGR 計算將呈現溫和成長，而郵輪成本（不含每可用下舖日的燃油）則為低個位數的 CAGR 成長。

Because we expect yield growth to grow faster than costs, we believe this will drive significant margin expansion. Achieving these targets will require heightened cost discipline and a focus on further strengthening our industry-leading cost structure. We will drive operational efficiencies and realize scale benefits within ship operating expenses and G&A through technology and sourcing, resulting in decelerating cost growth throughout the period. While it is true we are announcing PROPEL at a time of heightened volatility, these targets are about the long-term trajectory of our business, for which I have great optimism. And I say that based on very relevant experience.

由於我們預期收益率成長將快於成本成長，我們相信這將帶動顯著的利潤率擴張。要達成這些目標，將需要更高程度的成本紀律，並聚焦於進一步強化我們業界領先的成本結構。我們將透過科技與採購，在船舶營運費用與一般及行政費用（G&A）中推動營運效率並實現規模效益，使整個期間的成本成長逐步放緩。雖然我們確實是在波動性升高的時點宣布 PROPEL，但這些目標著眼於我們業務的長期走勢，對此我非常樂觀。我這麼說是基於非常相關的經驗。

During my time at Carnival, we have managed through so many challenges, 9/11, the global financial crisis, the Arab Spring uprisings, COVID and the Ukraine war, just to name a few. And we have always come away demonstrating our ability to execute and achieve new record results while building resilience and growing stronger. I expect no less as we look ahead to our future.

在我任職嘉年華（Carnival）期間，我們歷經了許多挑戰，包括 9/11、全球金融危機、阿拉伯之春動亂、COVID 以及烏克蘭戰爭等，僅舉幾例。而我們每一次都能證明自身的執行能力，達成新的紀錄成果，同時建立韌性並變得更強。展望未來，我也同樣抱持這樣的期待。

Operator, we're now ready to open the call for questions.

接線員，我們現在準備開放提問。

(Operator Instructions) Robin Farley, UBS.

(接線員指示) UBS 的 Robin Farley。

Great. Thanks for taking the question. I wonder if you could just give us a little insight into when you were thinking about your long-term targets. Did anything change from 4 weeks ago aside from obviously the changes in fuel? Just wondering how anything in the last month would have impacted your longer term, the other indicators.

很好。謝謝讓我提問。我想請您稍微分享一下，您在思考長期目標時的時間點與考量。除了燃油的變動之外，和 4 週前相比有任何改變嗎？只是想了解過去一個月的任何變化，會如何影響你們更長期的其他指標。

And then just as a follow-up on the share repurchase, if you could just spell out a little clearly what dividend and share repurchase over the next 3 years. I mean I think I can back into the math from what your dividends are and your total capital return. It's just a significant step-up from what you had done pre-COVID. So I just want to make sure that we're thinking about that right. Thank you.

另外追問一下庫藏股回購，如果可以的話，能否更清楚說明未來 3 年的股利與股票回購安排。我的意思是，我想我可以從你們的股利與總資本回饋推回去算出數字。只是這相較於你們在 COVID 之前的作法，是一個相當顯著的提升。所以我只是想確認我們的理解是否正確。謝謝。

So first, sorry for the technical delays. We got hung up on, which is not good when you're the speakers. So with respect to the long-term targets, I mean, at the end of the day, they're long-term targets and we have a lot of confidence in our ability to deliver over that period. With respect to the current situation and what its impact could be, I'm not going to speculate on how it's going to play out, but we do have very minimal exposure to that region. We didn't have any this year because of the decisions we took and we've already made that decision for next year.

首先，對技術上的延遲感到抱歉。我們卡住了，當你是講者時這可不是好事。關於長期目標，歸根結底它們就是長期目標，我們對在該期間內交付成果的能力非常有信心。至於目前情勢及其可能帶來的影響，我不會揣測它將如何發展，但我們對該地區的曝險非常有限。由於我們所做的決策，今年我們完全沒有相關曝險，而且我們也已經為明年做出同樣的決定。

And we have the ability to move our assets as everybody knows. So we feel very good about the long-term trajectory. We certainly didn't just do it based on fuel prices from 2025. We thought about this and stress-tested it in various scenarios and it's something that we do believe strongly that we can deliver. With respect to the capital allocation, remember if you think about what the world looked like 10 years ago versus where we are today, our profile is very, very different.

而且大家都知道，我們有能力調度我們的資產。因此我們對長期走勢感到非常樂觀。我們當然不是只根據 2025 年的燃油價格就做出這些目標。我們在各種情境下進行了思考與壓力測試，我們確實非常相信自己能夠達成。至於資本配置，請記得如果你比較 10 年前的世界與今天，我們的樣貌已經非常、非常不同。

We've got no ships this year. We've got one ship a year thereafter. We are generating a lot more cash than we used to. And even with the spending that we're investing, as we noted, in our materials, in ourselves, which is quite important, including the destination strategy and revitalization plans for our brands, it still leaves us with a tremendous amount of free cash flow that we can give back. And we will do just that. And you should expect both the dividend and the initial authorization of $2.5 billion. Those are starting points, and we'll progress from there.

我們今年沒有新船交付。之後每年大約一艘。我們產生的現金比過去多得多。即便在我們所投資的支出上——如我們在資料中提到的，投資於我們的資產與我們自己，這非常重要，包括目的地策略以及品牌的振興計畫——我們仍然會有大量的自由現金流可以回饋給股東。而我們也會這麼做。你們應該預期同時會有股利以及最初授權的 25 億美元回購額度。這些是起點，之後我們會在此基礎上逐步推進。

Steve Wieczynski, Stifel.

Stifel 的 Steve Wieczynski。

Yeah. Hey, guys. Good morning. Congrats, Josh, on the strong results here. So I guess, first of all, it seems like the booking environment remains very healthy at this point. But Josh, wondering if you could maybe walk us through what you've seen from a booking perspective for both your North American and your EAA brands. I guess what I'm trying to understand here is if there's been any material differences in the bookings across your brands. And then also maybe you've seen any changes in your cancellation rates as we head into the summer, specifically around I assume it would probably be European cruises this summer.

是的。嗨，各位。早安。Josh，恭喜這次的強勁成果。我想首先，目前看起來訂位環境仍然非常健康。但 Josh，想請你帶我們了解一下，從訂位角度來看，你們北美品牌與 EAA 品牌各自的情況。我想了解的是，你們各品牌之間的訂位是否有任何實質差異。另外，隨著我們進入夏季，你們是否看到取消率有任何變化，特別是我猜可能會是今年夏天的歐洲航線。

Yes. So let me start with the cancellation question. We're really not seeing anything significant to talk about with respect to cancellation trends. Our onboard spend have been consistently strong as we got out of Q1 and headed into Q2. So with respect to the last 3 weeks, I'd say as -- feels like deja vu, like last year.

是的。我先從取消率的問題開始。就取消趨勢而言，我們真的沒有看到任何顯著到需要特別說明的變化。隨著我們走出第一季並進入第二季，我們的船上消費一直維持強勁。因此就過去 3 週而言，我會說——感覺像似曾相識，就像去年一樣。

People see what's going on. There is a lack of understanding about what it means for the world, what it means for me personally, and then life normalizes. And we're in the process of life normalizing over this period. We've seen -- it's not surprising that if you think about potential impact and how people are thinking about things, to the extent that we're talking about sailings that are Eastern Mediterranean, that's got a different profile than Western Mediterranean. That's got a different profile from Northern Europe and then obviously Caribbean, Alaska, Australia.

人們看到正在發生的事情。大家對這對世界意味著什麼、對我個人意味著什麼，存在一些不確定與不了解，然後生活就會回歸常態。而我們正處於這段回歸常態的過程中。我們看到——如果你去想潛在影響以及人們如何看待事情，並不令人意外的是，若談到東地中海航程，其特性會不同於西地中海。這又不同於北歐，當然也不同於加勒比海、阿拉斯加、澳洲。

So overall, we're actually pretty pleased with how things have been progressing. Certainly volumes have been stronger for places like Alaska and the Caribbean. But it's not like there's just this line around Europe. I mean Northern Europe is going quite well. We've made progress even with our Eastern European sailings when it comes to the book percentage that we're at today versus where we are a few weeks ago.

所以整體而言，我們其實對事情的進展相當滿意。當然，像阿拉斯加與加勒比海這些地區的量一直更強。但並不是說歐洲那邊就出現一條長龍。我的意思是，北歐表現相當不錯。就目前的預訂比例來看，相較於幾週前，我們在東歐航線方面也取得了進展。

Would it have been higher and more activity had all of this not happened? Absolutely. But one of the strategies that we had going into wave was pull forward the occupancy, pull forward our bookings. And we did just that. So we entered into this period with a nice amount of headroom, which we've maintained overall.

如果這一切沒有發生，會不會更高、活動更多？絕對會。但我們在 wave 檔期開始前採取的策略之一，就是把入住率往前拉、把預訂往前拉。而我們確實做到了。因此我們在進入這段期間時就保有不錯的緩衝空間，而整體而言我們也一直維持住了。

So there's going to be ins and outs as we move through this. And I'm sure there's going to be reverberations that we don't know about yet, but the teams are managing to the curve and being reactive because the world is pretty reactive right now.

所以在我們走過這段期間的過程中，會有進進出出的變化。我也確信會有一些我們目前還不知道的連鎖反應，但團隊正在沿著曲線管理並保持即時反應，因為現在的世界非常需要快速反應。

Okay. Got you. And then second question, Josh, if I could ask one about PROPEL. If we think about the target of greater than 50% EPS growth from '25 through '29, so simple math is going to say, okay, 2025 adjusted EPS, I think, was whatever it was, $2.25, I think. That would say 2029 EPS should be at a worst-case greater than $3.38, $3.40, somewhere in that range.

好的。了解。那第二個問題，Josh，如果可以的話我想問一個關於 PROPEL 的問題。如果我們看從 2025 到 2029 年 EPS 成長超過 50% 的目標，簡單算一下就是，2025 年調整後 EPS 我記得大概是 2.25 美元左右。那麼這表示 2029 年 EPS 在最保守情況下也應該要高於 3.38、3.40 美元，大概在那個區間。

I guess with 2026 EPS now taking a pretty significant step backwards just because of fuel, is it fair to kind of assume that you guys feel pretty comfortable that you'll be able to absorb pretty much higher fuel prices over a longer period of time? Am I kind of thinking about that the right way?

我想問的是，現在 2026 年 EPS 因為燃油因素而出現相當明顯的回落，是否可以合理地假設你們對於在更長一段時間內吸收較高的燃油價格，感到相當有把握？我這樣理解對嗎？

Yes, I think that's right. Over a longer period of time, we'll take what the world has and we'll perform in any environment at the end of the day. So clearly, we'd be performing better if fuel was back at $60, $70, but we don't plan our lives around a world where fuel stays at $60 to $70. That's why our focus forever, and will continue to be forever, is use less because whatever the price is, if we use less, we do better. And if you think about our trajectory on our consumption, if you look at the per unit consumption decreases that we've had across the fleet, if you go back to where we were in 2019 versus where we are in 2026, we're saving this year alone about $650 million.

是的，我認為你說得沒錯。從更長的時間來看，世界給我們什麼環境，我們就接受什麼環境，最終我們都能在任何環境下表現。很明顯，如果燃油回到每桶 60、70 美元，我們會表現得更好，但我們不會把規劃建立在燃油永遠維持在 60 到 70 美元的世界上。這也是為什麼我們一直以來、也將永遠持續聚焦在「用得更少」：因為不管價格是多少，只要用得更少，我們就做得更好。如果你看我們的耗用趨勢，看看全船隊單位耗用量的下降幅度，若回到 2019 年對比 2026 年，光是今年我們就省下大約 6.5 億美元。

If you go back just to 2023 and you look at where we are today, that alone is $250 million, thanks to the consumption savings that we are hyper-focused on and we'll continue to do that.

如果只回到 2023 年，看看我們今天的位置，光靠這些我們高度聚焦、且會持續推進的耗用節省，就已經是 2.5 億美元。

Got you. Good color. Thanks, Josh. Appreciate it.

了解。很有幫助的補充說明。謝謝你，Josh。感謝。

Matthew Boss, JPMorgan.

JPMorgan 的 Matthew Boss。

Great, thanks. So Josh, maybe could you elaborate on the curve and your comments on bookings well into 2028? Maybe if you could just speak to pricing power or areas of opportunity that you see across the portfolio today.

很好，謝謝。Josh，或許你能再多談談你提到的曲線，以及你說預訂已經延伸到 2028 年的評論？也許你可以談談目前在整體產品組合中，你看到的定價能力或機會領域。

I want to make sure I understand your question. So can you say it a different way?

我想先確認我理解你的問題。你可以換個方式說嗎？

Yes. Maybe if you could just elaborate on the strength on further out bookings. I think you cited well into 2028 and just where you see the greatest areas of pricing power across the portfolio. And I know we've talked about your portfolio approach and how that separates you from some of your peers in the industry.

可以。也許你可以再多談談遠期預訂的強勁程度。我記得你提到已經延伸到 2028 年，以及你在產品組合中看到定價能力最強的領域在哪裡。我也知道我們談過你們的產品組合策略，以及這如何讓你們與產業中的一些同業有所區隔。

Yes, I mean, I think the answer is yes. We've seen the trajectory of our brands in a pretty holistic way, leaning forward across the board when it comes to lengthening the booking curve. So it's almost uniform that people are at the far end of their booking curve. So everybody's been taking opportunities to really put things out for sale with more lead time, driving further sales and managing the curves. I don't know if I'd say differently than they used to.

是的，我的意思是，我想答案是肯定的。我們以相當整體性的方式看待各品牌的發展軌跡，在延長預訂曲線方面，各品牌普遍都更積極往前推進。所以幾乎是很一致地，大家都處在各自預訂曲線的更遠端。因此每個人都在把握機會，把產品更早拿出來銷售、拉長提前期，推動更遠期的銷售並管理曲線。我不確定這是否算是和過去有什麼不同。

It's really just evolving. We've got tools that we've invested in to help us be better at our jobs in that respect. We've got -- we've brought in a lot of folks over the last few years that have great capability that are leading teams of revenue managers that are really pushing the envelope.

這其實就是在演進。我們投入了一些工具，幫助我們在這方面把工作做得更好。過去幾年我們也引進了很多能力很強的人才，帶領收益管理團隊，確實在不斷突破界限。

And I think overall, we are becoming more mainstream, right? We're becoming more mainstream as a product. Our loyal guests really enjoy what they get with us and know to book in advance as far as they can so they get the best of whatever they want for their particular vacation. So I think it's all the blocking and tackling that we have been working with our teams around the world around those brands to push things forward. And it is -- when we talk about bookings, we're not just -- internally, we're not just looking at this quarter.

而且我認為整體而言，我們正在變得更主流，對吧？我們作為一項產品正在變得更主流。我們的忠誠旅客非常喜歡跟我們出行所獲得的體驗，也知道要盡可能提前預訂，這樣才能在他們特定的假期需求上，拿到最想要的選擇。所以我認為這就是我們一直在和全球各地團隊、圍繞這些品牌所做的那些基本功與執行細節，持續把事情往前推。而且當我們談預訂時，我們內部看的不只是這一季。

We're not just looking at full year. What are our targets for '27, which I'm not going to tell you, what are our targets for '28? How far are we going? And are we getting the right balance, right? I mean we don't want to be 100% booked on day 1 that we put things on for sale. So there is art and science behind it, but everybody's been working hard to maximize the revenue.

我們不只看全年。我們對 2027 年的目標是什麼（我不會告訴你），對 2028 年的目標是什麼？我們要走多遠？以及我們是否取得了正確的平衡，對吧？我的意思是，我們不希望在產品上架銷售的第一天就 100% 訂滿。所以這背後既有藝術也有科學，但每個人都在努力把營收最大化。

And then maybe, David, could you outline the drivers of ROIC above 16% in the PROPEL plan, meaning opportunities you see remaining across the portfolio, just how you're thinking about net yields relative to low- to mid-single digits historically?

另外，David，你能否概述一下 PROPEL 計畫中 ROIC 高於 16% 的驅動因素？也就是說，你在整體產品組合中還看到哪些剩餘機會，以及你如何看待淨收益率相對於歷史上低到中個位數的水準？

As I said in the prepared remarks, our PROPEL model and the 16% was built off moderate yield growth and low-single-digit cost growth. And there's clearly, as Josh talked about, further out bookings and the revenue management, and I won't repeat all the things he said. There's clearly upside opportunity on both the revenue and the onboard areas to drive the ROIC even higher than 16%. That's not a cap. It's just a target for 2019 and beyond.

如同我在事先準備的發言中提到的，我們的 PROPEL 模型以及 16% 的目標，是建立在溫和的收益率成長與低個位數的成本成長之上。而且很明顯，如 Josh 所談到的，遠期預訂與收益管理等方面——我就不重複他說的所有內容了。在營收端與船上收入端，都很明顯還有上行機會，可以把 ROIC 推得比 16% 更高。那不是上限。它只是 2019 年及之後的目標。

Great color. Best of luck.

很有幫助的補充說明。祝順利。

Xian Siew, BNP Paribas.

BNP Paribas 的 Xian Siew。

Hi, guys. Thanks for the question. Maybe just on the 2Q guidance, you did 2.7% net yield growth in 1Q and 2Q is guided at 2%. Maybe just can you talk about any reasons 2Q should maybe take a little bit of a step back? Because it sounds like underlying, there's -- demand is quite strong.

嗨，各位。謝謝讓我提問。想請教一下 2Q 指引：你們在 1Q 的淨收益率成長是 2.7%，而 2Q 指引是 2%。能否談談為什麼 2Q 可能會稍微回落一些？因為聽起來從基本面來看，需求其實相當強勁。

I mean honestly, our first quarter yield guidance was less than 2%. We were pretty clear that when we were kind of coming around the table again to think about the rest of the year, we kept things fairly consistent given all the noise and all the background. So there's -- every period's got differences based on dry docks, based on what day of the week the bookings, the sailings end, et cetera. But we feel that 2% is where we were and where we are, and we always try to exceed.

我的意思是，坦白說，我們第一季的收益率指引不到 2%。我們講得很清楚，當我們再次坐下來思考今年剩餘時間時，在各種雜音與背景因素之下，我們基本上維持相當一致的做法。所以——每個期間都會因為進塢維修、訂位與航程結束落在星期幾等因素而有所不同，等等。但我們認為 2% 就是我們當時的位置、也是我們現在的位置，而我們一向努力要超越。

Okay. Great. And then maybe just on the follow-up for longer-term outlook for net yield, you kind of mentioned moderate yield growth. Could you maybe talk about what do you think is the biggest kind of drivers within that? How do we think about the building blocks, if it's the ship kind of revamps, the islands? Like, what do you think is kind of the biggest kind of drivers within that?

好的。很好。那接著可能就長期淨收益率展望追問一下，你提到溫和的收益率成長。你能不能談談你認為其中最大的驅動因素是什麼？我們該如何看待組成要素，是船舶的翻新改裝、島嶼目的地之類的嗎？你覺得其中最大的驅動因素大概是哪些？

Well, I don't think if we're going to quantify, the biggest drivers are not going to be the revamps. I don't think the biggest drivers are going to be the destinations. I think they're going to absolutely be accretive, but those are fairly isolated ship-by-ship things that are going to be nicely supportive of the yield growth. What's really going to drive us forward is incremental improvement in the commercial space, right, in the marketing, in the revenue management, in utilization of technology that we're already utilizing to be better at lead generation, better at conversion, better at personalization, better at driving earlier engagement with booked guests so that they are booking not just the ticket, but the packages and bundles and all the experiences that we have to offer on board. So the good thing is, if you think about where we are now versus where we were when I was kind of talking about this stuff 3 years ago, I think we've got a track record of leaning into those things and getting better every day.

嗯，我不認為如果要量化的話，最大的驅動因素會是翻新改裝。我也不認為最大的驅動因素會是目的地。我認為它們絕對會帶來增益，但那是相對零散、以單船為單位的事項，會很好地支撐收益率成長。真正會推動我們向前的是商業端的持續改善，也就是行銷、收益管理，以及我們已在使用的科技的運用，讓我們在名單開發（lead generation）、轉換（conversion）、個人化（personalization）方面做得更好，並且更早與已訂位的旅客互動，讓他們不只是訂船票，還會預訂我們在船上提供的套裝、組合與各種體驗。好消息是，如果你想想我們現在相較於我大概 3 年前在談這些事情時的狀況，我認為我們已經有一個持續投入並且每天都在變得更好的紀錄。

And not only do we have, I think, just an amazing team and amazing leaders, many of whom are new versus where we were 3 years ago, but the technology advancements to supercharge this only are going in one direction. So I think that's really where the broad-based improvements are going to be, which then get bolstered by the investments we've been making in the destinations and will continue to do so. And as you said, the refurbishments.

而且不只是我認為我們有一支很棒的團隊與很棒的領導者，其中很多人相較於 3 年前都是新加入的，同時能夠為此加速的科技進展也只會朝一個方向前進。所以我認為真正廣泛性的改善會在這裡發生，然後再由我們在目的地上所做、並將持續投入的投資來加強。以及如你所說，翻新整修。

Great. Thank you, and good luck.

很好。謝謝，祝你們順利。

Thanks very much.

非常感謝。

Brandt Montour, Barclays.

Brandt Montour，巴克萊。

Hey, good morning, everybody, and congratulations on getting the buyback announcement today. I have a question on technology to kind of stay with that thread, Josh. How do you think about the opportunity to do more direct integrations with AI and LLM companies out there that do travel? And just given sort of the inherent complexity of the cruise product for most first-time cruisers, does that have the potential to fundamentally change the way consumers find their way to cruises?

嗨，各位早安，也恭喜你們今天宣布回購。我有一個關於科技的問題，想沿著這個脈絡問一下，Josh。你怎麼看與外部從事旅遊的 AI 與 LLM 公司做更直接整合的機會？另外，考量郵輪產品對多數第一次搭郵輪的人而言本身就相當複雜，這是否有可能從根本上改變消費者找到並選擇郵輪的方式？

I think it already is, right, because of the number of folks that utilize, whether it's ChatGPT or Gemini, Claude, I mean, you name it. I mean the whole nature of our interaction with the guests and how to get to our -- either our websites or our trade partners to come sail with us are in flight. I do think -- and so the teams have been working for a while now and will continue to do that on optimizing how we show up in those AI engines as opposed to the old days where we were just talking about Google search. I think the thing that's probably going to be a little slower for the cruise industry because of what you said versus what you see in places like Walmart and things that are a little bit more easy to navigate and easy to know what you're looking for and find it at the price that it's listed for is we are more complicated. There is no doubt.

我認為其實已經在改變了，對吧，因為有很多人會使用，不管是 ChatGPT、Gemini、Claude，反正你說得出名字的都有。我們與旅客互動的整體方式，以及他們如何導流到我們——不論是我們的網站或是我們的同業夥伴——來搭乘我們的航程，都正在進行中。我確實認為——所以團隊已經投入一段時間，接下來也會持續，去優化我們在這些 AI 引擎中的呈現方式，而不是像以前只談 Google 搜尋。我想對郵輪產業來說可能會慢一些的原因，正如你所說，相較於像 Walmart 這類更容易瀏覽、更容易知道自己要找什麼、並以標示價格找到商品的場景，我們更複雜。這點毫無疑問。

We're not a commodity. We are an experience. And so I'm sure it will come at some point, but we'll be on the tail end of that versus what we're already starting to see in select types of retail experiences. And I think with respect to our travel agents, we've been saying this forever, they are an incredibly important piece of our business. I don't expect that to change anytime soon.

我們不是大宗商品。我們是一種體驗。所以我確定終究會到來，但相較於我們已經開始在某些零售體驗類型看到的情況，我們會是在後段才出現。另外，關於我們的旅行社（旅遊代理），我們一直以來都在說，他們是我們業務中極其重要的一環。我不預期這在短期內會改變。

They are great at providing newcomers access to us. And they too, just like we are and just like every other company is, are working on, what does it mean to be a travel agent in a world of AI and optimizing their operations around that too? So I think it's going to lift -- a tide that's going to lift all boats.

他們很擅長讓新客接觸到我們。而他們也一樣，就像我們、也像其他所有公司一樣，都在思考在 AI 的世界裡「旅行社」意味著什麼，並且也在圍繞這點去優化他們的營運。所以我認為這會帶動——一股能讓所有船都浮起來的潮水。

That's really helpful thoughts there. A different question would be on the longer-term targets. You just gave a great rundown, Josh, of how you think you're going to be able to drive yield growth. But just sort of honing in on your ship orders, 3 years ago, I think we all kind of thought that you'd see this -- lower, less ship orders, 1 to 2 per year. You're doing 1 per year.

這些想法很有幫助。另一個問題是關於長期目標。Josh，你剛才很清楚地說明了你認為將如何推動收益率成長。但如果把焦點放在你們的造船訂單上，3 年前我想我們都覺得你們會看到——更少的新船訂單，每年 1 到 2 艘。你們現在是每年 1 艘。

It looks like you guys are doubling down on that for the next sort of period of time. When you take this model out, obviously your fleet age will start to stand out against peers. And I want to know if you think that the industry has changed or your business has changed and that doesn't matter as much anymore?

看起來你們在接下來一段時間會更堅定地維持這個做法。當你把這個模型往外推，顯然你們的船隊船齡會相較同業更突出。我想知道你是否認為產業已經改變了，或你們的業務已經改變了，以至於這件事不再那麼重要？

I mean for those on the call that got to experience us going on the AIDA ship that came out of the AIDA Evolution program, an 18-year-old ship can look and feel like a 1-year-old ship and be maintained in that condition. So I don't think getting older in and of itself is going to be a driver of our ability to execute on our revenue strategy. I was, I am and I continue -- will be for looking forward to be of the belief that by having very measured capacity growth, we really get to focus on improving the underlying business and keep focused on that. And there is a tremendous amount of opportunity to do that.

我的意思是，對於電話會議上那些有機會體驗我們參觀 AIDA 那艘完成 AIDA Evolution 計畫的船的人來說，一艘 18 年船齡的船可以看起來、感覺起來像 1 年船齡的船，而且可以維持在那樣的狀態。所以我不認為船齡變老本身會成為我們執行營收策略能力的驅動因素。我過去是、現在也是，而且未來也會——相信透過非常審慎的運能成長，我們才能真正專注於改善基本面，並持續把焦點放在那上面。而在這方面有非常大的機會。

And yes, newbuilds are great, but we've got 96 ships, right? Newbuilds are not in the grand scheme of things. The thing in any couple of years or a few year period is going to lift us up. What's going to lift us up is the 96 ships. And we have every intention of keeping this fleet going for a nice time while we do introduce new capacity over time in a measured way.

而且是的，新造船很棒，但我們有 96 艘船，對吧？從大局來看，新造船不是關鍵。在任何兩年或幾年的期間內，能把我們整體拉升的不是新造船。能把我們拉升的是這 96 艘船。我們完全打算在逐步、審慎地引入新運能的同時，讓這支船隊在相當長的一段時間內持續運作。

So I don't know if that answers your question, but I feel that the approach has been working and will continue to work. These are very long-term assets that people enjoy. And some of the best yields and some of the best NPS we get are on some of our older ships.

所以我不確定這是否回答了你的問題，但我覺得這個做法一直有效，並且會持續有效。這些都是人們喜愛的非常長期的資產。而且我們在一些較舊的船上，拿到了一些最好的殖利率，以及一些最高的 NPS。

Great. Thanks for the color, guys. Appreciate it.

很好。謝謝各位提供的補充說明。非常感謝。

Trey Bowers, Wells Fargo.

Trey Bowers，富國銀行。

Hey, guys. Thanks so much for the question. Thanks for the color earlier in the call about what you guys are kind of seeing in the Med and Europe given the conflict, but it seems like we could take out of that, that maybe some of the non-European trends, are they coming in even better than you might have expected? And maybe in that, could you just break down kind of what you're seeing in the Caribbean and maybe Alaska?

嗨，各位。非常感謝這個問題。也謝謝你們在電話會議前面就衝突背景下你們在地中海與歐洲所看到的情況提供的補充說明；但看起來我們可以從中推論，也許一些非歐洲的趨勢，表現甚至比你們原先預期的更好？另外在這方面，你們能否拆解一下你們在加勒比海以及阿拉斯加看到的情況？

First thing I'd say is it is early days, right? We're literally a few weeks into something that has been completely unexpected, and it's working its way through the global backdrop. So yes, Caribbean's been a bit stronger. Alaska has been strong and it continues to be strong. We've been very pleased for a very long time about how Alaska for 2026 was shaping up.

我首先要說的是，現在還在初期階段，對吧？我們其實才剛進入這個完全出乎意料的事件幾週而已，而它正在影響全球的大環境。所以是的，加勒比海確實強了一些。阿拉斯加一直很強，而且仍然很強。我們很長一段時間以來都對 2026 年阿拉斯加的走勢感到非常滿意。

I'd be saying the same thing if we were having a call at the end of February. And with respect to Europe, I mean, we are very well booked in Europe to begin with. And so like I said, we had been pushing to really produce a good occupancy advantage and we did that. There is absolutely not the pace that we would have expected over the last few weeks versus a world where this wasn't happening in the backdrop, but not to an extent that there's much to talk about, just an extent that, yes, things have shifted a little bit here and there. And I have no idea how it's going to play out.

如果我們在二月底開這通電話會議，我也會說同樣的話。至於歐洲，我是說，我們在歐洲本來就已經訂得非常滿。所以如我所說，我們一直在推動要真正做出一個良好的載客率優勢，而我們也做到了。過去幾週的訂位速度，絕對沒有達到如果背景沒有發生這件事時我們會預期的水準，但也沒有嚴重到需要多談；只是到了一個程度：是的，事情在這裡那裡有些微的變化。而我也不知道它會如何發展。

Now cards on the table. I don't know. So we'll have to see how this develops, and we'll respond accordingly.

坦白說。我不知道。所以我們得看看它如何發展，並據此做出回應。

Yes, fair. And I have to ask, David, when we go through these periods of fuel spikes like this, and when and if things settle down, does this kind of maybe reintroduce the idea of just trying to smooth fuel prices a little bit through reintroducing a hedging program at some point? Thanks so much, guys.

是的，合理。我必須問一下，David，當我們經歷像這樣的燃油價格飆升期間，等到事情平穩下來（如果會的話），這是否會讓你們重新考慮：在某個時間點重新導入避險計畫，以便讓燃油價格更平滑一些？非常感謝，各位。

Yes. No, thank you. So listen, we think about that question all the time, regardless of the situation and circumstance when we talk about it. But at the moment, you know what we've done over the past decade, and we'll continue to evaluate and rethink it.

是的。不，謝謝你。所以聽著，我們一直都在思考這個問題，不論我們討論它時的情境與狀況如何。但就目前而言，你知道我們過去十年所做的事，我們也會持續評估並重新思考。

I lost a bet. It took us until 10:46 for someone to ask about fuel hedging.

我輸了一個賭注。我們一直到 10:46 才有人問到燃油避險。

You're welcome.

不客氣。

Ben Chaiken, Mizuho.

Ben Chaiken，瑞穗。

Hey, good morning. Maybe on free cash flow, the $14 billion is very compelling. I think you framed it as 40% of operating cash flow. Does that -- if I'm not mistaken, does that kind of signal that you think about capital return and free cash flow independently? In other words, capital return in any year is agnostic of the CapEx in that year. And maybe along the same lines, for the implied buyback portion of that $14 billion, do you expect that to be smooth or will you be opportunistic? And then one follow-up.

嗨，早安。也許談一下自由現金流，140 億美元非常有吸引力。我記得你把它描述為營運現金流的 40%。如果我沒弄錯的話，這是否某種程度上表示你們是把資本回饋與自由現金流分開來思考？換句話說，任何一年的資本回饋，並不受該年度資本支出（CapEx）的影響。另外同樣的脈絡下，對於這 140 億美元中隱含的庫藏股回購部分，你們預期會是平滑進行，還是會採取機會式操作？然後我還有一個追問。

Yes. So from an -- we do expect to be opportunistic in terms of the stock buybacks. We've said that repeatedly. As Josh said, we're starting with $2.5 billion. And clearly, over this period with $14 billion of expected shareholder returns, there'll be additional stock buybacks.

是的。所以就——我們確實預期在股票回購方面會採取機會式操作。我們已經反覆這麼說了。如 Josh 所說，我們先從 25 億美元開始。而且很明顯，在這段期間預期有 140 億美元的股東回饋之下，還會有額外的股票回購。

In terms of the allocation, you got to remember that our CapEx is reasonably predictable over time because we have laid out one ship per year. And remember, we're only talking about '26 through '29 here. So it's one ship a year.

就配置而言，你要記得我們的資本支出隨時間推移是相當可預測的，因為我們已經規劃好每年一艘船。而且記得，我們這裡只是在談 2026 到 2029 年。所以就是每年一艘船。

Our non-newbuild CapEx also has some level of predictability, although we don't know the exact number every single year. This year it's $2.4 billion. And so as a result of that, we were able to triangulate into 40% of cash from operations, or more than 40% of cash from operations being returned to shareholders. And it's a combination of the reinvestment in the business, as Josh said, the $15 billion, and $14 billion -- more than $14 billion probably going to shareholders. That's the way we think about it as opposed to because of the predictability.

我們的非新造船資本支出也有一定程度的可預測性，雖然我們無法每一年都知道精確數字。今年是 24 億美元。因此，我們得以推算出：將營運現金流的 40%（或超過 40%）回饋給股東。而這是由兩部分組成：如 Josh 所說，對業務再投資的 150 億美元，以及 140 億美元——可能超過 140 億美元——回到股東手上。我們是這樣思考的，而不是——因為其可預測性。

Okay. Got it. And then, David, in the past you've talked about there being more costs within NCC this year versus CapEx. You didn't necessarily talk about it on this call, but I think over the last 6, 12 months you've brought it up. Have you kind of contemplated this anymore, meaning is '26 an anomaly? Or is the level of cost attribution between OpEx and CapEx the right way to think -- for this year, the right way to think about it moving forward?

好的。了解。然後，David，過去你談過今年在 NCC 裡面有更多成本是歸在費用（OpEx）而不是資本支出（CapEx）。你這次電話會議不一定有提到，但我想在過去 6 到 12 個月你有提過。你是否又進一步思考過這件事，也就是說，2026 年是個例外嗎？還是說，OpEx 與 CapEx 之間的成本歸屬水準——就今年而言——是未來延續下去的正確思考方式？

Yes. So you're referring to the dry dock expense where I had indicated in December that the total dry dock -- total spending on dry dock was flat, but there was a different allocation between the costs. That's something that we're going to have to look at every single year based off of the accounting rules and what can get capitalized. So stay tuned until -- for our December guidance. But we haven't, of course, we're just beginning to work through the 2027 capital expenditure plan and dry dock schedule. So there's a lot more for us to evaluate before we can give that answer.

是的。你指的是進塢維修（dry dock）費用；我在 12 月曾表示，進塢維修的總額——總支出——是持平的，但成本之間的分配不同。這件事我們必須每一年都依據會計準則以及哪些項目可以資本化來檢視。所以請等我們 12 月的指引。但當然，我們才剛開始著手 2027 年的資本支出計畫與進塢維修排程。所以在我們能給出答案之前，還有很多需要評估。

Was there something unique that you're doing this year on the dry docks? I appreciate it moves year-to-year, but just to maybe double-click there.

今年你們在進塢維修方面有做什麼特別的事情嗎？我理解它會逐年變動，但想在這點上再深入確認一下。

Yes. There wasn't anything in particular that was unique. Remember, in total, the dry dock expense, and I mean, we're talking about well over $1 billion between all the ships in the year. And so a very small movement of even 1% or 2% between CapEx and expense can have an impact on the percentage increase of net cruise costs without fuel. And that's what it was. It was just a couple of percent movement which had a -- I think it was a 0.6% impact on the net cruise costs without fuel.

是的。並沒有任何特別獨特的事情。記得，整體而言，進塢維修費用——我的意思是，我們談的是一年所有船合計超過 10 億美元。因此，即便在 CapEx 與費用之間只有 1% 或 2% 的小幅移動，也會影響不含燃油的淨郵輪成本（net cruise costs without fuel）的增幅百分比。而這就是原因。只是幾個百分點的移動，對不含燃油的淨郵輪成本造成了——我想是 0.6% 的影響。

Conor Cunningham, Melius Research.

Conor Cunningham，Melius Research。

Hi, everyone. Just on the -- so I understand that you're 85% booked for 2026, but just around fuel recapture a little bit, on the remaining 15%, does your pricing algorithms immediately kick in? And then in the same context as that, do you worry about demand destruction at all just because some of your competitors obviously do hedge and you guys don't? And like, does that put you at a disadvantage as a result on the pricing side? Thank you.

各位好。我想確認一下——我理解你們 2026 年已經有 85% 被預訂了，但就燃油回收（fuel recapture）再追問一下，剩下的 15% 你們的定價演算法會立刻啟動嗎？同樣在這個脈絡下，你們會擔心需求被破壞（demand destruction）嗎？因為你們的一些競爭對手顯然會做避險，而你們不做。那這是否會讓你們在定價面上因此處於劣勢？謝謝。

Yes. So the answer is with respect to how we manage our revenue, the price of fuel is somewhat irrelevant. And certainly immediate swings are irrelevant. We price as much as the market can bear. We price as much as we -- as our guest base and potential guest base is willing to pay.

是的。所以答案是，就我們如何管理營收而言，燃油價格在某種程度上並不那麼相關。當然，短期的劇烈波動更是不相關。我們的定價是以市場能承受的程度為準。我們的定價是以——以我們的客群與潛在客群願意支付的金額為準。

And if they were willing to pay $10 more because of fuel, they should just be willing to pay $10 more. And so it is a little bit separated. Now clearly, when we do our itinerary planning and long-term planning, the price of fuel is a very big factor in how we set the itineraries and getting the balance right between the revenue that we'll generate and the cost that we incur. But with respect to how we manage the business day-to-day, now, I mean, we're really trying to maximize. And we're talking about $7 billion of EBITDA.

如果他們因為燃油而願意多付 10 美元，那他們就應該也願意多付 10 美元。所以這兩者是有點分開的。當然，當我們做航線規劃與長期規劃時，燃油價格是我們如何設定航線、以及在我們將產生的收入與我們將承擔的成本之間取得平衡的一個非常重要因素。但就我們日常如何經營業務而言，我的意思是，我們真的在努力把它最大化。而我們談的是 70 億美元的 EBITDA。

So I don't see a disadvantage one way or another with respect to the price of fuel at any one given time. People don't tell us we got a great advantage when we're not hedged and the price is low. So this kind of conversation, we only talk about this when fuel goes in one way and not the other. I do think, I'll go back to what I was saying before, the focus on consumption is really, when you think about the long-term trajectory of our business and the long-term trajectory of our earnings power, using less is the only solution to the price of fuel.

所以我不認為在任何特定時點的燃油價格，會讓我們在某個方向上有劣勢或優勢。當我們沒有避險而油價很低時，也沒有人跟我們說我們有很大的優勢。所以這類對話，我們只在燃油往某個方向走、而不是往另一個方向走的時候才會談。我確實認為——回到我先前說的——把焦點放在耗用量上，才是關鍵：當你思考我們業務的長期軌跡與我們獲利能力的長期軌跡時，降低用量是面對燃油價格的唯一解方。

And that $650 million that I said, between 2019 and this year, the savings that we'll get in this year alone because of the consumption savings, that's nicely higher than the over $500 million impact we're seeing because of the spike in fuel. So that will remain our focus. Now I don't take away from what David said. We'll always look at it, right? And the world can change and we could take a different view in the future, but that's not the focus. The focus for the health of the long-term business is to use less.

而我提到的 6.5 億美元——在 2019 年到今年之間，光是今年因為耗用量下降所帶來的節省——這個數字漂亮地高於我們因燃油飆升所看到的超過 5 億美元的影響。所以這仍會是我們的重點。我也不會否定 David 說的。我們會一直去看，對吧？世界可能改變，我們未來也可能採取不同的看法，但那不是目前的重點。就長期業務健康而言，重點是用得更少。

Totally appreciate that. And I hate to ask another fuel-related question. Just given the -- like, I mean, if you look at your current pricing for fuel right now, it is obviously below current spot, and it's below the forward curve. And I totally appreciate it's impossible to factor like where that's all going. But like, why use those numbers? Why not assume something higher and then kind of if it comes in better, great. Just the idea around where you're marking oil at today in general?

完全理解。我也不太想再問一個跟燃油有關的問題。只是就——比如說，如果你看你們目前對燃油的定價假設，顯然低於目前現貨價，也低於遠期曲線。我完全理解不可能把未來走勢都納入。但為什麼要用那些數字？為什麼不假設高一點，然後如果結果更好，那就很好。主要是想了解你們今天一般而言是用什麼概念在標記油價？

We literally set our guidance on Monday and that was the curve on Monday. We rounded, but that was the curve on Monday. Since then it's gone up, it's gone down. It will continue to change. We tried to give you information so people can model whatever you believe or whatever is happening, but we just had to draw a line in the sand sometime and just move forward.

我們真的就是在週一設定我們的指引，而週一的曲線就是那樣。我們有做四捨五入，但那就是週一的曲線。從那之後它上去過、也下來過。它會持續變動。我們試著提供資訊，讓大家可以依你相信的情境或依實際發生的狀況去建模，但我們總得在某個時間點畫一條線，然後往前走。

Yes, we gave you the sensitivity.

是的，我們也提供了敏感度分析。

Well, if you know where it is next week, let me know.

嗯，如果你知道下週會在哪裡，記得告訴我。

Yes. If I know where it is next week, I'm retiring because I know the future and I can make a lot of money doing a lot of things. And I'm not the person that was betting on the prediction market in advance of all the stuff that's going on.

是的。如果我知道下週會在哪裡，我就退休了，因為我知道未來，而且我可以靠做很多事情賺很多錢。而且我也不是那種會在所有這些事情發生之前，就先去押注預測市場的人。

Chris Stathoulopoulos, SIG.

Chris Stathoulopoulos，SIG。

Good morning, everyone. Stathoulopoulos, but close enough. Josh, you've been in this seat now for a few years. You've navigated some difficult landscapes. I've always said with a lot of confidence and transparency. But one of your peers in the travel space is, I guess, giving some straight talk around what an extended period of elevated energy prices might mean. So you've gotten around Russia, Ukraine, tariffs, Liberation Day, other things.

各位早安。是 Stathoulopoulos，不過差不多啦。Josh，你坐在這個位置也幾年了。你也走過一些艱難的局面。我一直覺得你講得很有信心、也很透明。但旅遊產業裡你的一位同業，我想，正在很直白地談一段延長的高能源價格期間可能意味著什麼。所以你們已經經歷了俄烏、關稅、解放日（Liberation Day）以及其他事情。

Walk us through, I guess, your plan. So in the short term, you're talking about lower consumption. Longer term though, if we're in a period of 16, 24 months of $100-plus oil, just how should we understand, I guess, internally? What are the areas of focus? How should we think about your ability to respond via pricing and perhaps changing itineraries and the like? Just want to understand, like, I guess the mid- to longer-term playbook in an extended or elevated energy cycle.

請帶我們走一遍，我想，是你們的計畫。短期你談的是降低耗用量。但更長期來看，如果我們處在 16 到 24 個月、油價在 100 美元以上的期間，我們應該如何理解你們內部的想法？重點會放在哪些領域？我們應該如何看待你們透過定價、以及可能調整航線等方式來回應的能力？我只是想了解，在一個延長或高檔的能源循環中，你們中期到長期的作戰手冊。

Sure. Yes. So I'd say, from a consumption standpoint, you've got, as you said, shorter term and longer term. Shorter term, there's still things that we can do on balance that will improve our consumption savings and really being even more maniacal about simple things that can save a lot of money with respect to how we're managing the sailing times and making sure we get in just to the port right in time and leave on time that cuts your fuel usage and how we manage the HVAC. I mean all those things, there's still opportunity to, like I said, be more focused.

當然。是的。所以我會說，從耗用量的角度，你如你所說，有短期與長期。短期來看，我們在整體上仍有一些事情可以做，以提升我們的耗用量節省；而且在一些簡單但能省很多錢的事情上更「偏執」一些——例如我們如何管理航行時間，確保剛好準時進港、準時離港，這會降低燃油使用；以及我們如何管理 HVAC（暖通空調）。我的意思是，所有這些事情仍有空間——就像我說的——可以更聚焦。

On the longer term, yes, we absolutely have the ability to change itineraries, to make decisions about number of ports that will stop off at particular -- in particular future scenarios. I would say we have been really strategic in thinking about the fuel side of our investments in our destinations in the Caribbean. And we are looking to -- and we have been looking to create a bit of a strategic fence for ourselves where we have great opportunities to go to great places that are very, very close to the home ports that we sail from. And things like Celebration Key and the pier that's going up now at RelaxAway are incredibly useful. We also have things in the pipeline on the investment side which we call -- we've already cycled through our Service Power Package 1, which cuts a lot of consumption on the hotel side.

長期來看，是的，我們絕對有能力調整航線，並在特定未來情境下，對停靠港口的數量做出決策。我會說，我們在思考加勒比海目的地投資時，對燃油面向一直非常有策略。而我們正在——而且一直在——為自己建立某種策略性的「護城河」，讓我們有很好的機會去到很棒、而且離我們出發母港非常非常近的地方。像 Celebration Key，以及目前正在 RelaxAway 興建的碼頭，都非常有用。我們在投資面也還有一些在管線中的項目，我們稱之為——我們已經跑完了 Service Power Package 1，它在「飯店端」（船上服務/住宿端）大幅降低了耗用量。

We already have our plans for Service Power Package 2, and we are incredibly bullish on that. And if it's warranted, we can always speed that up and get even more consumption savings. I don't -- I will be honest with you, though. I don't know how to respond to your question in total because I don't know what the world looks like in a year if fuel is at $110 and what that means. I just don't know.

我們已經有針對 Service Power Package 2 的計畫，而且我們對此非常看多。而且如果有需要，我們也隨時可以加快進度，取得更多的耗用節省。不過我得—老實跟你說。我不知道該如何完整回答你的問題，因為如果一年後燃油在 110 美元，世界會是什麼樣子、那代表什麼，我也不知道。我真的不知道。

I would remind everybody that we have a lot of things going for us when it comes to what it is that we have to offer. Number one, we are still a huge value gap to land. We provide experiences at a much lower price point than people can find on land. And if people are looking to stretch their dollar further, it goes further with us. Second, we do make it convenient for people to get on our ships.

我想提醒大家，就我們所能提供的而言，我們有很多優勢。第一，我們相對於陸上選項仍然存在很大的價值差距。我們提供的體驗，其價格水準遠低於人們在陸地上能找到的。如果人們想把每一塊錢花得更有價值，跟我們一起就能花得更遠。第二，我們也讓人們登船變得很方便。

About 50% of the folks that travel with us drive to get there. And that is incredibly powerful if people are looking to avoid cost, cost of air. So we will continue to, as you said, navigate challenges as they come.

大約有 50% 跟我們旅行的旅客是開車前往出發地。如果人們想要避免成本、尤其是機票成本，這一點就非常有力。所以我們會持續如你所說的，在挑戰出現時加以因應。

And I think over the last, call it, 5, 6 years, we have shown how much agility and nimbleness we've got and ingenuity to overcome some pretty significant things and come out stronger. Oh, you have one more? This might be the last question though. Go ahead.

而且我認為在過去大概 5、6 年裡，我們已經展現出我們有多大的敏捷性、靈活度，以及克服一些相當重大的事情並變得更強的創意與能力。喔，你還有一個？不過這可能是最後一題了。請說。

All right. Well, wanted to give you 2 things. So we can do our math on what it means for implied EPS growth through '29 off of the new guide. But if you could talk a little bit more about how, I guess, things like YODA and AI. I know there was an earlier question in AI, but I have been getting some questions on how AI might perhaps unbundle and take away some potential pricing power that you've been able to extract, if you will, because of this frictionless approach or bundling around purchasing.

好。我想給你兩點。所以我們可以根據新的指引，自己去算到 2029 年的隱含 EPS 成長代表什麼。但如果你能再多談一點，像是 YODA 和 AI 這類事情如何影響—我想—我知道先前已經有人問過 AI，但我最近也被問到一些問題：AI 是否可能把你們過去能夠取得的某些定價能力「拆解」並帶走，因為你們採用的是這種無摩擦的方式，或是圍繞購買行為進行打包。

And then also, there was a chart back in your SEA Change deck from a few years ago that had future state capacity by brand, and I wonder if we're at a point where -- I think it was 30% plus for Carnival Corp where that is contemplated similar-ish level for PROPEL by '29. Realize there's a lot there. Maybe if you just want to talk about, I guess AI or...

另外，幾年前你們的 SEA Change 簡報裡有一張圖，顯示各品牌的未來運力狀態；我在想我們是否已經到了某個時間點—我記得嘉年華集團（Carnival Corp）當時是 30% 以上—而 PROPEL 到 2029 年是否也規劃了類似的比例水準。我知道這裡面很多內容。也許你只要談談—我想是 AI 或者……

I got to be honest with you, and I apologize. I didn't understand either question.

我必須老實跟你說，也很抱歉。我兩個問題都沒聽懂。

Okay. Well, maybe if you could talk about -- you've talked about the moderate yield growth. And in the past, you've done a lot of -- you've spoken about YODA and how that differentiates what you do at the core. And there's been some questions around AI, which perhaps is maybe at conflict with that. And then on the actual capacity by brand, back in the SEA Change slide, you had future state, which was '26. I'm assuming that FY29 contemplates a similar sort of distribution of capacity by brand type. Thanks.

好的。那也許你可以談談—你提過適度的收益率成長。而過去你也談了很多 YODA，以及它如何在核心層面上讓你們的作法有所差異化。而現在有一些關於 AI 的問題，可能在某種程度上與此相衝突。另外關於各品牌的實際運力，在 SEA Change 的那張投影片裡，你們有一個未來狀態，是到 2026 年。我假設 2029 財年也會考量到類似的、按品牌類型分配的運力結構。謝謝。

Okay. So as far as the AI goes, I think I understand where you're going. I mean AI has the opportunity to certainly be a disruptor in society in a lot of different ways. AI also has an opportunity to be harnessed for the benefit of supercharging what we do, including how we manage YODA. I mean we're already starting to utilize some pretty advanced technology in how we operate our business on the revenue side.

好的。就 AI 而言，我想我理解你要問的方向。我的意思是，AI 確實有機會在很多不同面向成為社會的顛覆者。AI 也有機會被我們善加運用，為我們所做的事情加速增能，包括我們如何管理 YODA。我的意思是，我們在營收端的營運方式上，已經開始運用一些相當先進的技術。

And I think it's still early days. So I think the whole world is going to move at pace, taking advantage of what technology is going to do for businesses and for consumers. With respect to the capacity, are you asking basically whether our brand mix is going to be relatively consistent for 2029 versus where we are now?

而且我認為現在仍是早期階段。所以我認為全世界都會以一定的速度前進，善用科技將為企業與消費者帶來的改變。至於運力，你基本上是在問：到 2029 年，我們的品牌組合是否會相對於現在保持大致一致嗎？

Yes.

是的。

Got it. So I mean, yes, I mean, more or less. I mean you've got the road map, right, which is really there's just effectively 2.5 ships in that period that are going to Carnival. So Carnival will be a bit heavier weighted in '29 versus where we are today because they're the only ones that have ships on order over this PROPEL period, and then we start introducing some for AIDA. And then obviously, we will order more ships for the 2030s. It will come at some point and we'll share that with you when there's something to share. But it's all going to be in the vein of intentionally measured capacity growth.

了解。所以我的意思是，是的，大致上會。你已經有路線圖了，對吧？也就是在那段期間，實際上大概只有 2.5 艘船會分配給 Carnival。因此到 2029 年，Carnival 的權重會比我們今天更高一些，因為在這個 PROPEL 期間，只有他們有已下訂的船舶，然後我們才開始為 AIDA 引入一些船舶。然後很明顯地，我們在 2030 年代還會再訂更多船。那會在某個時間點發生，等有可以分享的內容時我們會告訴你。但整體都會是在有意識、審慎衡量的運力成長脈絡之下進行。

So I apologize again for the delay in getting to the Q&A session, but I do appreciate the questions. And thanks to everybody for joining. Be safe, and we'll talk to you next quarter.

所以我再次為延後進入問答環節致歉，但我很感謝各位的提問。也謝謝大家參與。請注意安全，我們下個季度再談。

Ladies and gentlemen, this concludes today's event. You may disconnect your lines at this time or log off the webcast and enjoy the rest of your day.

各位女士先生，今天的活動到此結束。您現在可以中斷電話連線，或登出網路直播，祝您今天愉快。