Carnival PLC (CUK) 2021 Q3 法說會逐字稿

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  • Arnold W. Donald - CEO, President & Director

    Arnold W. Donald - CEO, President & Director

  • Good morning, everyone, and welcome to our business update conference call. I'm Arnold Donald, President and CEO of Carnival Corporation & plc. Today, I'm joined telephonically by our Chairman, Micky Arison as well as David Bernstein, our Chief Financial Officer; and Beth Roberts, Senior Vice President, Investor Relations. Thank you all for joining us this morning.

    大家早上好,歡迎來到我們的業務更新電話會議。我是 Carnival Corporation & plc 的總裁兼首席執行官 Arnold Donald。今天,我們的董事長 Micky Arison 和我們的首席財務官 David Bernstein 通過電話與我會面;貝絲·羅伯茨 (Beth Roberts),投資者關係高級副總裁。感謝大家今天早上加入我們。

  • Now before I begin, please note that some of our remarks on this call will be forward-looking. Therefore, I must refer you to the cautionary statement in today's press release. We are absolutely thrilled to be back doing what we do best, delivering amazing, memorable vacation experiences to our guests. Our team members are overjoyed to be back on board and it shows, our guests are having a phenomenal time.

    現在,在我開始之前,請注意我們對本次電話會議的一些評論將是前瞻性的。因此,我必須向您推薦今天新聞稿中的警告聲明。我們非常高興能回來做我們最擅長的事情,為我們的客人提供令人驚嘆、難忘的假期體驗。我們的團隊成員很高興回到船上,這表明我們的客人度過了一段非凡的時光。

  • Our onboard revenues for guests are off the charts, and our Net Promoter Scores have been exceptionally strong. I've had the pleasure of visiting a number of ships in recent weeks, both here in the U.S. and abroad. And I can tell you, the ships look spectacular, and the crew has an amazing energy. There is such an incredible spirit on board. Our protocols have been working well, beginning with a seamless embarkation experience and have enabled us to build occupancy levels at a significant pace as we return more ships to service.

    我們為客人帶來的機上收入超乎想像,我們的淨推薦值也異常強勁。最近幾週,我有幸參觀了美國和國外的許多船隻。我可以告訴你,這些船看起來很壯觀,船員們精力充沛。船上有如此不可思議的精神。我們的協議一直運作良好,從無縫的登船體驗開始,並使我們能夠隨著更多船舶恢復服務而以顯著的速度建立入住率。

  • Our brands executed extremely well in this initial phase of our return to serve, particularly given significant restrictions on international travel, hampering our ability to offer our normal content risk deployment options as well as the operating requirements in certain jurisdictions that limit our normally high occupancy levels.

    我們的品牌在我們恢復服務的初始階段表現非常好,特別是考慮到對國際旅行的重大限制,阻礙了我們提供正常內容風險部署選項的能力,以及某些司法管轄區的運營要求限制了我們通常的高入住率.

  • Now our itinerary planners came up with creative deployment alternatives, our marketing department made them accessible with little investment. Our yield managers price them appropriately to achieve occupancy targets very close to them and coupled them with bundled packages to drive exceptionally strong revenue on board. And despite all the additional protocols, our crew delivered an amazing guest experience. The combination of which enabled us to deliver cruise vacations at scale while producing significant cash from these restricted voyages.

    現在我們的行程規劃者想出了創造性的部署替代方案,我們的營銷部門讓他們只需很少的投資就可以使用。我們的收益經理對它們進行適當定價,以實現非常接近它們的入住率目標,並將它們與捆綁套餐相結合,以推動異常強勁的船上收入。儘管有所有額外的協議,我們的工作人員還是提供了令人驚嘆的賓客體驗。兩者的結合使我們能夠大規模地提供郵輪假期,同時從這些受限的航行中產生大量現金。

  • Now while we normally don't disclose this level of information, we try to find a way to give you a sense of why we're viewing the restart is hugely successful beyond the enthusiasm of our guests and crew and the unprecedented Net Promoter Scores. It became complicated because most of our voyages, while cash flow positive are programs that could not be compared to 2019. And in most cases, would normally be priced lower than the 2019 alternatives. So for example, in the U.K., we're only able to offer senior cruises without any ports of call, and that's our version of vacation, on which we're not comparable in ticket prices to peak season Mediterranean or Baltic sailings offered in the summer of 2019.

    現在,雖然我們通常不會透露這一級別的信息,但我們試圖找到一種方法讓您了解為什麼我們看到重啟取得了巨大的成功,超越了我們的客人和工作人員的熱情以及前所未有的淨推薦值。它變得複雜,因為我們的大部分航程,雖然現金流為正,但都是無法與 2019 年相比的計劃。而且在大多數情況下,價格通常會低於 2019 年的替代方案。因此,例如,在英國,我們只能提供沒有任何停靠港的高級遊輪,這就是我們的假期版本,我們在票價上無法與旺季的地中海或波羅的海航行相提並論2019 年夏天。

  • That said, even with occupancy limitations, these cruises generated cash for our stakeholders. They supported a return for our workforce, and they successfully serve guests, resulting in high satisfaction levels.

    也就是說,即使有入住限制,這些遊輪也為我們的利益相關者帶來了現金。他們支持我們員工的回報,他們成功地為客人提供服務,帶來了很高的滿意度。

  • Now at Carnival Cruise Line, where we were able to offer more comparable itineraries for 2019, our revenue per diems were up 20% compared to 2019 and that's inclusive of the impact of incentives from previous cancellations, and that's despite the close-in nature of the bookings. In fact, Carnival Cruise Lines restarted more ships out of the United States than any of the cruise brand and still achieved occupancy above 70%, all of which combined to generate an even greater cash contribution.

    現在,在 Carnival Cruise Line,我們能夠為 2019 年提供更多可比較的行程,我們的每日收入與 2019 年相比增長了 20%,這包括之前取消的激勵措施的影響,儘管預訂。事實上,Carnival Cruise Lines 在美國重新啟動的船隻比任何郵輪品牌都多,而且入住率仍然超過 70%,所有這些加在一起產生了更大的現金貢獻。

  • Clearly, Carnival Cruise Line is a brand that continues to outperform. While the Delta variant and its corresponding effect on consumer confidence has certainly created a myriad of operating challenges for us to navigate in the near term and has lasted some booking volatility in August.

    顯然,Carnival Cruise Line 是一個繼續表現出色的品牌。雖然 Delta 變體及其對消費者信心的相應影響無疑給我們在短期內導航帶來了無數的運營挑戰,並且在 8 月份持續了一些預訂波動。

  • To date, it has not had a significant impact on our ultimate plan to return our full fleet to guest operations in the spring of 2022. On our last quarterly business update, we said that we expected the environment to remain dynamic and it certainly has. Of course, agility has been a key strength of ours over the last 18 months, and we continue to aggressively manage to optimize given this ever-changing landscape.

    迄今為止,它還沒有對我們在 2022 年春季將全部機隊恢復為客人運營的最終計劃產生重大影響。在我們上一季度的業務更新中,我們表示我們預計環境將保持動態,而且確實如此。當然,在過去 18 個月裡,敏捷性一直是我們的關鍵優勢,鑑於這種不斷變化的形勢,我們將繼續積極設法優化。

  • In fact, while by design, we're not yet at 100% occupancy, we have individual sailings with over 4,000 guests. To date, we have carried over 0.5 million guests this year already. And on any given day, we are now successfully carrying around 50,000 guests, and expect that number to continue to rise as we introduce more capacity and as we increase occupancy over the coming months.

    事實上,雖然按照設計,我們還沒有達到 100% 的入住率,但我們有超過 4,000 名客人的個人航行。迄今為止,我們今年已經接待了超過 50 萬名客人。在任何一天,我們現在都成功地運送了大約 50,000 名客人,並且隨著我們在未來幾個月引入更多運力和增加入住率,預計這一數字將繼續上升。

  • The Delta variant has clearly impacted our protocols, which will continue to evolve based on the local environment. In markets like the U.S., where case counts are higher, we've taken swift actions to reinforce our already strong protocol, such as additional testing requirements and indoor mask requirements with all U.S. sailings operating under the CDC's vaccination requirements. Our protocols go above and beyond the terms of the conditional sail order and are much more rigorous than comparable land-based alternative. Again, our highest responsibility and therefore, our top priority is always compliance, environmental protection and the health, safety and well-being of everyone, our guests, the people and the communities we touch and serve and of course, our Carnival family, our team members shipboard and shoreside.

    Delta 變體顯然影響了我們的協議,它將根據當地環境繼續發展。在美國等病例數較高的市場,我們已迅速採取行動來加強我們本已強大的協議,例如額外的檢測要求和室內口罩要求,所有美國航行都在 CDC 的疫苗接種要求下運營。我們的協議超越了有條件航行命令的條款,並且比同類陸基替代方案嚴格得多。同樣,我們的最高責任,因此,我們的首要任務始終是合規、環境保護以及每個人、我們的客人、我們接觸和服務的人民和社區的健康、安全和福祉,當然還有我們的嘉年華大家庭,我們的船上和岸上的團隊成員。

  • The Delta variant has also created some disruption in our supply chain, impacted the timing of opening for some destinations and created a heightened level of uncertainty that has been reflected in the broader travel sector and in our own booking trends. We quickly adjusted our deployment to push out the start date on a few select voyages. For some of our more exotic winter deployments like our popular world cruises, we rebooked guests for our 2023 departures. Effectively, we've managed our near-term capacity to optimize the current environment. Yes, as we indicated we would.

    Delta 變體還對我們的供應鏈造成了一些干擾,影響了某些目的地的開放時間,並造成了更高水平的不確定性,這已反映在更廣泛的旅遊部門和我們自己的預訂趨勢中。我們迅速調整了我們的部署,以推遲一些精選航次的開始日期。對於我們一些更具異國情調的冬季部署,例如我們廣受歡迎的世界遊輪,我們為 2023 年的出發重新預訂了客人。實際上,我們已經管理了我們優化當前環境的近期能力。是的,正如我們所說的那樣。

  • The modifications we've made to the pace of the role of our fleet will optimize our cash position in the near term. Looking forward, we continue to work towards resuming full operations in the spring, in time for our important summer season where we make the lion's share of our operating profit. Of course, we have ample liquidity to see us through to full operation. And we continue with a prudent focus on cash management to ensure we have flexibility under a multitude of scenarios. The current environment, while choppy, has improved dramatically since last summer, and it should improve even further by next summer if the current trend of vaccine rollout and advancements in therapies continues.

    我們對機隊作用速度所做的修改將在短期內優化我們的現金狀況。展望未來,我們將繼續努力在春季恢復全面運營,及時趕上我們重要的夏季,我們將在夏季獲得大部分營業利潤。當然,我們有充足的流動性來支持我們全面運作。我們繼續審慎地關注現金管理,以確保我們在多種情況下具有靈活性。目前的環境雖然起伏不定,但自去年夏天以來已經有了顯著改善,如果目前疫苗推廣和療法進步的趨勢繼續下去,到明年夏天應該會進一步改善。

  • For instance, in markets like the U.K., where vaccination rates are already higher, consumer confidence remains strong, and we are seeing strong momentum. So far, we've announced the resumption of guest cruise operations for 71 ships through next spring, and that's across 8 of our 9 brands. We're evaluating the remaining ships through next spring, with a continued focus on maximizing future cash flow while delivering a great guest experience in a way that serves the best interest of public health.

    例如,在英國等疫苗接種率已經較高的市場,消費者信心依然強勁,我們看到了強勁的勢頭。到目前為止,我們已經宣佈到明年春天恢復 71 艘郵輪的賓客郵輪運營,這涉及我們 9 個品牌中的 8 個。我們正在評估明年春天剩餘的船隻,繼續關注最大化未來現金流,同時以最符合公共衛生利益的方式提供卓越的賓客體驗。

  • Importantly, even at this very early stage of our rollout, our ships are generating positive cash flow. Based on our current rollout, we expect cash from operations for the whole company to turn positive at some point early next year. Looking forward, we believe we have the potential to generate higher EBITDA in 2023 compared to 2019, given despite our modest growth rate, additional capacity and our improved cost structure. As further insight into booking trends, we are well positioned to build on a solid book position and intentionally constrained capacity for the remainder of 2021 and into the first half of 2022.

    重要的是,即使在我們推出的這個非常早期的階段,我們的船舶也在產生正現金流。根據我們目前的部署,我們預計整個公司的運營現金將在明年初的某個時候轉為正值。展望未來,儘管我們的增長率適中、產能增加且成本結構得到改善,但我們相信與 2019 年相比,我們有可能在 2023 年產生更高的 EBITDA。作為對預訂趨勢的進一步洞察,我們有能力在 2021 年剩餘時間和 2022 年上半年建立穩固的預訂狀況並有意限制運力。

  • With the existing demand and limited capacity, we are focused on maintaining price. Even recently with heightened uncertainty from the Delta variant affecting travel decisions broadly, we continue to maintain price. We have also opened bookings earlier for cruises in 2023, and we're achieving those early bookings with strong demand and good prices. And based on that success, we've begun to launch 2024 sailings even earlier. In fact, these efforts contributed to the $630 million increase in guest deposits. Our long-term guest deposits, and that's deposits on bookings beyond 12 months are 3x historical levels, driven in part by our proactive efforts to open more inventory for sale in outer years. Now we expect guests deposits to continue to grow through the restart as we return more ships to service and as we build occupancy levels.

    在現有需求和產能有限的情況下,我們專注於維持價格。即使最近,達美航空變體的不確定性增加也廣泛影響了旅行決策,我們仍繼續維持價格不變。我們還提前開放了 2023 年遊輪的預訂,並且我們正在以強勁的需求和優惠的價格實現這些提前預訂。基於這一成功,我們甚至更早開始啟動 2024 次航行。事實上,這些努力促成了客人存款增加 6.3 億美元。我們的長期客人押金,即超過 12 個月的預訂押金是歷史水平的 3 倍,部分原因是我們積極努力在外部年份開放更多庫存進行銷售。現在,我們預計客人存款將在重啟後繼續增長,因為我們讓更多的船隻恢復服務並提高入住率。

  • Again, these favorable trends continue despite dramatically reduced advertising expense. We continue to focus our efforts on our lower cost channels like direct marketing to our sizable past guest database of over 40 million guests. And earned media as we build on our multiple new ship launches and restart news flow. Of course, and most importantly, we are delivering on our guest experience. Word-of-mouth remains the #1 reason people take their first cruise. And as I mentioned, our Net Promoter Scores are well above historical levels across our ships that have returned to service so far.

    同樣,儘管廣告費用大幅減少,但這些有利趨勢仍在繼續。我們繼續將精力集中在我們的低成本渠道上,例如直接營銷我們擁有超過 4000 萬客人的龐大的過去客人數據庫。並在我們建立多艘新船發射和重新啟動新聞流時贏得媒體。當然,最重要的是,我們正在提供我們的客戶體驗。口口相傳仍然是人們第一次乘坐郵輪的第一大原因。正如我所提到的,我們的淨推薦值遠高於迄今為止恢復服務的船舶的歷史水平。

  • During the quarter, we furthered our strong track record of responsibly managing the balance sheet. We completed 2 refinancing transactions, among other efforts, resulting in a meaningful reduction in annual interest expense. We have many more opportunities for refinancing ahead and are working through them at an aggressive pace. Also importantly, we have continued to make advancements in our sustainability efforts.

    在本季度,我們進一步鞏固了負責任地管理資產負債表的良好記錄。我們完成了 2 項再融資交易,以及其他努力,從而顯著降低了年度利息支出。我們未來有更多的再融資機會,並且正在以積極的步伐解決這些問題。同樣重要的是,我們在可持續發展方面繼續取得進展。

  • Last week, we published our 11th Annual Sustainability Report, Sustainable from Ship to Shore, which can be found on our sustainability website www.carnivalsustainability.com. In the report, we build on the achievement of our 2020 goal by sharing more details on our 2030 goals and our 2050 aspiration. The report shares additional light on the 6 focus areas that will guide our long-term sustainability vision, including climate action, circular economy that waste reduction, sustainable tourism, health and well-being, diversity, equity and inclusion and biodiversity and conservation. Now these areas align with United Nations' Sustainable Development Goals.

    上週,我們發布了第 11 份年度可持續發展報告《從船到岸的可持續發展》,該報告可在我們的可持續發展網站 www.carnivalsustainability.com 上找到。在報告中,我們通過分享更多關於 2030 年目標和 2050 年願景的詳細信息,以實現 2020 年目標為基礎。該報告進一步闡明了指導我們長期可持續發展願景的 6 個重點領域,包括氣候行動、減少廢物的循環經濟、可持續旅遊、健康和福祉、多樣性、公平和包容以及生物多樣性和保護。現在,這些領域符合聯合國的可持續發展目標。

  • Climate action is a top sustainability focus area. We are committed to decarbonization, and we aspire to be carbon neutral by 2050. As we have previously shared, despite 25% capacity growth since that time, our absolute carbon emissions peaked in 2011 and will remain below those levels. We are working towards transitioning our energy needs to alternative use and investing in new low-carbon technologies. Now because of the pause in guest cruise operations, the 2020 sustainability performance measures are not comparable to prior year data. That said, there is a lot of valuable information on the progress we've made in our sustainability journey despite what was an incredibly challenging year.

    氣候行動是可持續發展的首要重點領域。我們致力於脫碳,我們渴望到 2050 年實現碳中和。正如我們之前分享的那樣,儘管自那時以來產能增長了 25%,但我們的絕對碳排放量在 2011 年達到頂峰,並將保持在這些水平以下。我們正在努力將我們的能源需求轉變為替代用途,並投資於新的低碳技術。現在,由於賓客郵輪運營暫停,2020 年的可持續發展績效指標無法與上一年的數據進行比較。也就是說,儘管這一年充滿挑戰,但我們在可持續發展之旅中取得的進展有很多有價值的信息。

  • We were clearly among the most impacted companies by COVID-19, and I'm very proud of all we've accomplished collectively to sustain our organization through these challenging times, including all we did for our loyal guests, all we did for our other many stakeholders and all we did for each other within our Carnival family.

    我們顯然是受 COVID-19 影響最大的公司之一,我為我們在這些充滿挑戰的時期為維持我們的組織而共同取得的成就感到非常自豪,包括我們為忠誠的客人所做的一切,以及我們為其他人所做的一切許多利益相關者以及我們在嘉年華大家庭中為彼此所做的一切。

  • In many regards, I believe our collective response to the pandemic is strong testimony to the sustainability of our company. For that, I again express my deepest appreciation to our Carnival team members, both shipboard and shoreside who consistently went above and beyond. I'm very humbled by the dedication I've seen in these past 18 months. Of course, we couldn't have done it without the overwhelming support from all of you who are listening on this call, all of our stakeholders. So once again, thank you to our valued guests. Thank you to our travel agent partners. Thank you to all the many communities and governments that facilitated getting our crews vaccinated. Thank you to our suppliers and our other many stakeholders. And of course, thank you to our investors for your continued confidence in us and for your ongoing support.

    在許多方面,我相信我們對這一流行病的集體反應有力地證明了我們公司的可持續性。為此,我再次向嘉年華團隊的船上和岸上團隊成員表示最深切的感謝,他們始終如一地超越自我。在過去的 18 個月裡,我所看到的奉獻精神讓我感到非常謙卑。當然,如果沒有所有正在收聽此電話會議的所有利益相關者的大力支持,我們不可能做到這一點。再次感謝我們尊貴的客人。感謝我們的旅行社合作夥伴。感謝所有幫助我們的船員接種疫苗的社區和政府。感謝我們的供應商和其他許多利益相關者。當然,還要感謝我們的投資者對我們的持續信任和持續支持。

  • We continue to move forward in a very positive way. Throughout the pause, we've been proactively managing to resume operations as an even stronger operating company. Our strategic decision to accelerate the exit of 19 ships left us with a more efficient and effectively and has lowered our capacity growth to roughly 2.5% compounded annually from 2019 through 2025, and that's down from 4.5% pre-COVID. We've opportunistically rebalanced our portfolio through the ship exits as well as a future ship transfer, any modification to our new build schedule to optimize our asset allocation, maximize cash generation and improve our return on invested capital.

    我們繼續以非常積極的方式前進。在整個暫停期間,我們一直在積極設法恢復運營,成為一家更強大的運營公司。我們加速退出 19 艘船的戰略決策使我們的效率和效率更高,並將我們的運力增長從 2019 年到 2025 年的年復合增長率降低到大約 2.5%,低於 COVID 之前的 4.5%。我們通過船舶退出和未來的船舶轉讓、對我們新建造計劃的任何修改來優化我們的資產配置、最大化現金產生並提高我們的投資資本回報率,從而機會主義地重新平衡我們的投資組合。

  • While capacity growth is constrained, we will benefit from an exciting roster of new ships spread across our brands, enabling us to capitalize on the pent-up demand and drive even more enthusiasm and excitement around our restart plan. And we will achieve a structural benefit to unit costs in 2023 as we introduce these new larger and more efficient ships coupled with the 19 ships leaving the fleet, which were among our least efficient with the aggressive actions we've already taken, optimizing our portfolio and reducing capacity.

    雖然運力增長受到限制,但我們將受益於我們品牌中令人興奮的新船名單,使我們能夠利用被壓抑的需求,並為我們的重啟計劃帶來更多的熱情和興奮。我們將在 2023 年實現單位成本的結構性優勢,因為我們引入了這些更大、更高效的新船舶,加上 19 艘離開船隊的船舶,這些船舶是我們已經採取的積極行動中效率最低的船舶之一,優化了我們的投資組合和減少容量。

  • We are well positioned to capitalize on pent-up demand and to emerge a leaner, more efficient company, reinforcing our global industry-leading position. We have secured sufficient liquidity to see us through to full operation. Once we return to full operation, our cash flow will be the primary driver to return to investment-grade credit over time, creating greater shareholder value. Again, thank you for your support, and we can't wait to welcome everyone back on board.

    我們完全有能力利用被壓抑的需求,打造一家更精簡、更高效的公司,鞏固我們在全球行業的領先地位。我們已經獲得了足夠的流動性來支持我們全面運營。一旦我們恢復全面運營,我們的現金流將成為隨著時間的推移恢復投資級信用的主要驅動力,從而創造更大的股東價值。再次感謝您的支持,我們迫不及待地歡迎大家回到船上。

  • With that, I'll turn the call over to David.

    有了這個,我會把電話轉給大衛。

  • David Bernstein - CFO & CAO

    David Bernstein - CFO & CAO

  • Thank you, Arnold. I'll start today with a review of our guest cruise operations along with our third quarter monthly average cash burn rate. Then I'll provide an update on booking trends and finish up with some insights into our refinancing activity.

    謝謝你,阿諾德。我將從今天開始回顧我們的賓客遊輪運營以及我們第三季度的月平均現金消耗率。然後,我將提供有關預訂趨勢的最新信息,並以對我們的再融資活動的一些見解作為結尾。

  • Turning to guest cruise operations. It feels so great to be talking about operations again. We started the quarter with just 5 ships in service. During the third quarter, we successfully restarted ships across 8 of our brands. We ended the quarter with 35% of our fleet capacity in service. Our plans call for another 27 ships to restart guest cruise operations during the fourth quarter and the month of December.

    轉向客人郵輪業務。再次談論運營感覺真好。本季度開始時,我們只有 5 艘船在役。第三季度,我們成功重啟了 8 個品牌的發貨。本季度結束時,我們有 35% 的機隊容量處於服務狀態。我們的計劃要求另外 27 艘船在第四季度和 12 月份重新啟動遊客郵輪運營。

  • So on New Year's Day, we anticipate celebrating with 55 ships or nearly 65% of our fleet capacity back in service. For the third quarter, occupancy was 54% across the ships in service. Our brands executed extremely well. Occupancy did improve month-to-month through the quarter and in the month of August, occupancy reached 59% from 39% in June and 51% in July. Occupancy for our North American brands reflects our approach of vaccinated cruises which for the time being, does limit the number of families with children under 12 that can sail with us.

    因此,在元旦那天,我們預計將有 55 艘船或近 65% 的船隊容量重新投入使用來慶祝。第三季度,在役船舶的入住率為 54%。我們的品牌執行得非常好。整個季度的入住率確實逐月提高,8 月份的入住率從 6 月份的 39% 和 7 月份的 51% 升至 59%。我們北美品牌的入住率反映了我們接種疫苗的遊輪方式,目前,確實限制了可以與我們一起航行的有 12 歲以下兒童的家庭數量。

  • Occupancy for our European brands reflects capacity restrictions such as social distancing requirements for our Continental European brands and a 1,000-person cap per sailing for some of the quarters in the U.K. For the full third quarter, our North American brands occupancy was 68%, while for our European brands, occupancy was 47%. Revenue per passenger cruise day in the third quarter 2021 increased compared to a strong 2019 despite the current constraints on itinerary offerings which did not include many of the higher-yielding destination-rich itineraries offered in 2019.

    我們歐洲品牌的入住率反映了容量限制,例如我們歐洲大陸品牌的社交距離要求以及英國某些季度每次航行 1,000 人的上限。在整個第三季度,我們的北美品牌入住率為 68%,而對於我們的歐洲品牌,入住率為 47%。與強勁的 2019 年相比,2021 年第三季度每位乘客遊輪日的收入有所增加,儘管目前對行程產品的限制並不包括 2019 年提供的許多收益更高的目的地豐富的行程。

  • As Arnold indicated, our guests are having a phenomenal time and our Net Promoter Scores have been incredibly strong. As always, happy guests seem to translate into improved onboard revenue. Our onboard and other revenue per diems were up significantly in the third quarter 2021 versus the third quarter 2019, in part due to the bundled packages as well as onboard credits utilized by guests from cruises canceled during the pause. We had great growth in onboard and other per diems on both sides of the Atlantic. Increases in bar, casino, shops, spa and Internet led the way on board.

    正如 Arnold 所指出的,我們的客人度過了一段非凡的時光,我們的淨推薦值也非常高。一如既往,快樂的客人似乎轉化為船上收入的增加。與 2019 年第三季度相比,我們在 2021 年第三季度的船上和其他每日津貼收入顯著增加,部分原因是捆綁套餐以及暫停期間取消的遊輪客人使用的船上積分。我們在大西洋兩岸的船上和其他每日津貼都有很大的增長。酒吧、賭場、商店、水療中心和互聯網的增長引領了船上的潮流。

  • Over the past 2 years, we have offered and our guests have chosen more and more bundled package options. In the end, we will see the benefit of these bundled packages in onboard and other revenue as we did during the third quarter 2021. As a result of these bundled packages, the line between passenger ticket revenue and onboard revenue seems to be blurring. For accounting purposes, we allocate the total price paid by the guests between the 2 categories. Therefore, the best way to judge our performance is by reference to our total cruise revenue metrics. As we previously guided, the ships in service during the third quarter were in fact cash flow positive. They generated nearly $90 million of ship-level cash contribution. This was achieved with only a 2-month U.S.-based restart during the third quarter as our North American brands began guest cruise operations in early July.

    在過去的 2 年裡,我們提供了越來越多的捆綁套餐選項,而我們的客人也選擇了越來越多的套餐選項。最終,我們將像 2021 年第三季度那樣,在機上和其他收入中看到這些捆綁套餐的好處。由於這些捆綁套餐,客票收入和機上收入之間的界限似乎變得模糊。出於會計目的,我們將客人支付的總價分配給這兩個類別。因此,判斷我們表現的最佳方式是參考我們的郵輪總收入指標。正如我們之前的指導,第三季度服役的船舶實際上現金流為正。他們產生了近 9000 萬美元的船舶級現金捐助。由於我們的北美品牌於 7 月初開始開展賓客遊輪業務,因此第三季度僅在美國重啟了 2 個月就實現了這一目標。

  • We expect the ship-level cash contribution to grow over time as more ships return to service and as we build on our occupancy percentages. For those of you who are modeling our future results, I did want to point out that due to the cost of a portion of our fleet being in pause status during the first half of 2022, restart-related expenses and the cost of maintaining enhanced health and safety protocols, we are projecting ship operating expenses in 2022 for available lower berth day or per ALBD as it is more commonly called to be higher than 2019 despite the benefit we get from the 19 smaller, less efficient ships leaving the fleet.

    隨著越來越多的船舶恢復服務以及我們提高入住率,我們預計船舶層面的現金貢獻會隨著時間的推移而增長。對於那些正在為我們的未來結果建模的人,我確實想指出,由於我們的一部分機隊在 2022 年上半年處於暫停狀態的成本、重新啟動相關的費用和維持增強健康的成本和安全協議,我們預計 2022 年可用的較低停泊日或每個 ALBD 的船舶運營費用,因為儘管我們從離開船隊的 19 艘更小、效率更低的船舶中獲益,但人們通常認為它會高於 2019 年。

  • Remember, that because a portion of the fleet will be in pause status during the first half, we are spreading costs over less ALBDs. We do anticipate that most of these costs and expenses will end with 2022 and will not reoccur in fiscal 2023.

    請記住,由於部分機隊將在上半年處於暫停狀態,因此我們將成本分攤到較少的 ALBD 上。我們確實預計這些成本和支出中的大部分將在 2022 年結束,並且不會在 2023 財年再次發生。

  • Now let's look at our monthly average cash burn rate. For the third quarter 2021, our cash burn rate was $510 million per month, which was better than our previous guidance and was in line with the $500 million per month for the first half of 2021. The improvement versus our guidance was due to the timing of capital expenditures, which are now likely to occur in the fourth quarter and some other small working capital changes.

    現在讓我們看看我們的月平均現金消耗率。 2021 年第三季度,我們的現金消耗率為每月 5.1 億美元,好於我們之前的指導,與 2021 年上半年的每月 5 億美元一致。與我們的指導相比有所改善是由於時間安排資本支出,現在可能發生在第四季度和其他一些小的營運資本變化。

  • With the timing of certain capital expenditures now shifting to the fourth quarter, the company expects its monthly average cash burn rate for the fourth quarter to be higher than the monthly average rate for the first 9 months of the year.

    隨著某些資本支出的時間轉移到第四季度,該公司預計其第四季度的月平均現金消耗率將高於今年前 9 個月的月平均速度。

  • Other good news positive factors impacting the fourth quarter are restart expenditures to support not only the 22 ships that will restart during the fourth quarter but also the additional ships that will restart in the first quarter of 2022, along with the significant increase in dry dock days during the fourth quarter, driven by the restart schedule. All these expenditures have been anticipated and given the announced restarts many of them are now occurring in the fourth quarter.

    影響第四季度的其他好消息利好因素包括重啟支出,不僅支持將在第四季度重啟的 22 艘船舶,還支持將在 2022 年第一季度重啟的額外船舶,以及乾船塢天數的顯著增加在第四季度,受重啟計劃的推動。所有這些支出都在預期之中,並且考慮到已宣布的重啟,其中許多支出現在發生在第四季度。

  • Also, during the fourth quarter, we are forecasting positive cash flow from the 50 ships that will have guest cruise operations during the quarter. And ALBDs for the fourth quarter are expected to be 10.3 million which is approximately 47% of our total fleet capacity.

    此外,在第四季度,我們預測將在本季度開展客運郵輪業務的 50 艘郵輪將產生正現金流。第四季度的 ALBD 預計為 1030 萬,約占我們總機隊容量的 47%。

  • Now turning to booking trends. Our booking volumes for the all future cruises during the third quarter 2021 were higher than booking volumes during the first quarter. That trend continued over the first couple of months of the third quarter such that we expected the third quarter would end at higher booking levels than the second quarter, but we did manage to achieve that because of lower booking volumes in the month of August when the Delta variant impacted travel and leisure bookings generally. The impact on bookings in August was mostly seen on near-term sailings. However, the impact quickly stabilized in the month of August. And in recent weeks, we have started to see a welcome uptick in booking volumes.

    現在轉向預訂趨勢。我們在 2021 年第三季度對所有未來郵輪的預訂量高於第一季度的預訂量。這種趨勢在第三季度的前幾個月一直持續,因此我們預計第三季度的預訂水平將高於第二季度,但我們確實實現了這一目標,因為 8 月份的預訂量較低,當時Delta 變量普遍影響了旅遊和休閒預訂。 8 月份預訂量的影響主要體現在近期航行中。不過,這種影響在 8 月份迅速趨於穩定。最近幾週,我們開始看到預訂量出現可喜的增長。

  • Our cumulative advanced book position for the second half of 2022 is ahead of a very strong 2019 and is at a new historical high. Pricing on our second half 2022 book position is higher than pricing on bookings at the same time for 2019 sailings driven in part by the bundled pricing strategy for a number of our brands, but excluding the dilutive impact of future cruise credits or more commonly known as FCCs.

    我們 2022 年下半年的累計賬面頭寸領先於非常強勁的 2019 年,並處於歷史新高。我們 2022 年下半年預訂頭寸的定價高於 2019 年航行的同時預訂定價,部分原因是我們許多品牌的捆綁定價策略,但不包括未來郵輪信用或更常見的稀釋影響催化裂化。

  • If we were to include the dilutive impact of future cruise credits, pricing on our second half 2022 book position is now in line with pricing at the same time for 2019 sailings. This improved position is a result of positive pricing trends we have seen during the third quarter. This is a great achievement given pricing on bookings for 2019 sailings is a tough comparison as that was the high watermark for historical yield.

    如果我們要包括未來郵輪積分的稀釋影響,我們 2022 年下半年賬面頭寸的定價現在與 2019 年航行的定價一致。這種改善的地位是我們在第三季度看到的積極定價趨勢的結果。這是一個偉大的成就,因為 2019 年航行的預訂定價是一個艱難的比較,因為這是歷史收益的高水位線。

  • Finally, I will finish up with some insights into our refinancing activity. We are focused on pursuing refinancing opportunities to extend maturities and reduce interest expense. Today, through our debt management efforts, we have reduced our future annual interest expense by over $250 million per year. And we have completed cumulative debt principal payment extensions of approximately $4 billion, improving our future liquidity position.

    最後,我將對我們的再融資活動提出一些見解。我們專注於尋求再融資機會以延長期限和減少利息支出。今天,通過我們的債務管理努力,我們每年將未來的年度利息支出減少超過 2.5 億美元。我們已經完成了約 40 億美元的累計債務本金支付延期,改善了我們未來的流動性狀況。

  • The $4 billion extension results from 3 things: first, the July refinancing of 50% of our first lien notes were $2 billion. Second, the completion of the European debt holiday amendments, which deferred $1.7 billion of principal payments. The deferred principal payments will instead be made over a 5-year period beginning in April 2022. And third, the extension of a $300 million bilateral loan with one of our banking partners. As we look forward, given how support of the debt capital market investors and commercial banks have been, we will be pursuing additional refinancing opportunities to meaningfully reduce our interest expense and extend our maturities over time.

    40 億美元的延期源於三件事:首先,7 月份對我們第一張留置權票據 50% 的再融資為 20 億美元。其次,完成歐洲債務豁免修正案,推遲了 17 億美元的本金支付。延期本金支付將從 2022 年 4 月開始,為期 5 年。第三,與我們的一家銀行合作夥伴延長 3 億美元的雙邊貸款。展望未來,鑑於債務資本市場投資者和商業銀行的支持,我們將尋求更多的再融資機會,以顯著降低我們的利息支出並隨著時間的推移延長我們的期限。

  • And now I'll turn the call back over to Arnold.

    現在我會把電話轉回給阿諾德。

  • Arnold W. Donald - CEO, President & Director

    Arnold W. Donald - CEO, President & Director

  • Thanks, David. Operator, please open the call for questions.

    謝謝,大衛。接線員,請打開電話提問。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • (Operator Instructions) And our first question is from the line of Steve Wieczynski with Stifel.

    (操作員說明)我們的第一個問題來自 Stifel 的 Steve Wieczynski。

  • Steven Moyer Wieczynski - MD of Equity Research and Gaming & Leisure Research Analyst

    Steven Moyer Wieczynski - MD of Equity Research and Gaming & Leisure Research Analyst

  • So Arnold, in your prepared remarks, you -- I think I heard this right, but you talked about how you're expecting 2023's EBITDA should be higher than 2019's EBITDA. And look, I understand there's new net capacity in there that's going to help drive part of that EBITDA. But can you also help us maybe think about at a higher level, what some of your longer-term assumptions are in order to get that EBITDA level, meaning, how are you guys thinking about whether it's the pricing environment, load factors? Anything else you would point out that could kind of bridge that gap?

    所以阿諾德,在你準備好的發言中,你——我想我沒聽錯,但你談到了你如何預計 2023 年的 EBITDA 應該高於 2019 年的 EBITDA。看,我知道那裡有新的淨產能,這將有助於推動部分 EBITDA 的增長。但是你也能幫助我們在更高的層次上考慮一下,為了獲得那個 EBITDA 水平,你的一些長期假設是什麼,意思是,你們是如何考慮定價環境和負載因素的?您還有什麼可以指出的可以彌合這一差距的嗎?

  • Arnold W. Donald - CEO, President & Director

    Arnold W. Donald - CEO, President & Director

  • Sure. I'll make some comments and then give David a chance as well. By '23, again, if things continue to trend the way they're going, we should have the full fleet out. We'll have, as you mentioned, additional capacity with these exciting new ships, more efficient. We've got some cost infrastructure improvements. We're coming out leaner and with better cost structure. We're more efficient on the ships, both from a fuel standpoint as well as an operating standpoint.

    當然。我會發表一些意見,然後也給大衛一個機會。到 23 年,如果事情繼續按照他們的方式發展,我們應該讓整個艦隊出動。正如您所提到的,我們將擁有這些令人興奮的新船的額外容量,效率更高。我們對成本基礎設施進行了一些改進。我們變得更精簡,成本結構也更好。我們在船上的效率更高,無論是從燃料的角度還是從運營的角度來看。

  • In addition to that, we expect to be back at occupancy levels more comparable to historical or potentially even better given the fact that while there will be some capacity growth at that point in the industry, it's going to be well below the capacity growth that would have occurred absent the pandemic. Go ahead, David, any additional comments?

    除此之外,我們預計入住率將回到歷史水平,甚至可能更好,因為儘管屆時該行業會有一些產能增長,但將遠低於產能增長在沒有大流行的情況下發生。繼續,大衛,還有其他意見嗎?

  • David Bernstein - CFO & CAO

    David Bernstein - CFO & CAO

  • Yes. I'd just point out a few things. So the 19 ships -- between the 19 ships that left the fleet, which Arnold indicated, are smaller, less efficient ships and all the new capacity coming in, we certainly have a much richer cabin mix on board the vessels. There's -- I think we had indicated the cabin -- the balcony cabin mix was about 6 percentage points higher. So that does give us the opportunity to generate more revenue.

    是的。我只想指出幾件事。因此,這 19 艘船——在阿諾德指出的離開艦隊的 19 艘船之間,是更小、效率更低的船和所有新的運力,我們當然有更豐富的船艙組合。那裡 - 我想我們已經指出了機艙 - 陽台機艙組合高出約 6 個百分點。所以這確實給了我們創造更多收入的機會。

  • The combination of the ships we said before, those leaving the fleet and the new builds give us a unit cost at the ship operating level, a 4% reduction. On the fuel consumption, just the change in the fleet that I described is 3%. In total, it is a 10% capacity increase net of the ships that left the fleet. So with all of the pent-up demand and all of the things, the revenue management things, the bundle packages that we're offering, which is driving onboard revenue. And everything else we're doing, we feel, as Arnold said, that we have the opportunity for stronger EBITDA in 2023 compared to 2019.

    我們之前說過的船隻組合,離開艦隊的船隻和新建造的船隻為我們提供了船舶運營層面的單位成本,減少了 4%。關於油耗,我描述的機隊變化是 3%。總的來說,這是一個 10% 的運力增長淨值,不包括離開艦隊的船隻。因此,由於所有被壓抑的需求和所有的東西,收入管理的東西,我們提供的捆綁包,這正在推動船上收入。正如阿諾德所說,我們正在做的所有其他事情,我們覺得與 2019 年相比,我們有機會在 2023 年實現更強勁的 EBITDA。

  • Steven Moyer Wieczynski - MD of Equity Research and Gaming & Leisure Research Analyst

    Steven Moyer Wieczynski - MD of Equity Research and Gaming & Leisure Research Analyst

  • Okay. Great. That's great color. And then second question, as we start to think about 2022, is there any way for you to help us think about how '22 is sold at this point? I guess what I'm trying to understand is how much of your capacity is actually available for sale at this point? And then how you think about opening up more capacity for '22 without ultimately impacting your pricing ability?

    好的。偉大的。那是很棒的顏色。然後是第二個問題,當我們開始考慮 2022 年時,您有什麼方法可以幫助我們考慮此時如何銷售 22 年嗎?我想我想了解的是此時您實際有多少產能可供出售?然後,您如何考慮在不最終影響您的定價能力的情況下為 22 年開放更多容量?

  • David Bernstein - CFO & CAO

    David Bernstein - CFO & CAO

  • So...

    所以...

  • Arnold W. Donald - CEO, President & Director

    Arnold W. Donald - CEO, President & Director

  • Go ahead, David.

    去吧,大衛。

  • David Bernstein - CFO & CAO

    David Bernstein - CFO & CAO

  • Yes. No, happy to. So for all intents and purposes, I think in most cases, we have announced the restart date for 71 ships out of the 95 that will be in the fleet in the spring of 2022. But even those ships where we have not announced the restart date in most cases, we have cleared the inventory for the dates that we don't expect to sail. And we are only selling at this point, the dates that we do anticipate sailing.

    是的。不,很高興。因此,出於所有意圖和目的,我認為在大多數情況下,我們已經宣布了 2022 年春季將在艦隊中的 95 艘船中的 71 艘的重啟日期。但即使是那些我們尚未宣布重啟日期的船隻在大多數情況下,我們已經清空了我們不希望航行的日期的庫存。我們只在此時出售,即我們預計航行的日期。

  • We just have not made the formal announcement on the remaining 24 ships. But those will be forthcoming in the days and weeks ahead. So what is out there today, more or less, give or take, there may be some changes a little bit on the margin, but more or less what's out there today is what we're selling. We talked about the back half of the year being at a new historical high in terms of the book position. And we were very pleased with that. People are booking further out. And so we're seeing the benefit of that.

    只是我們還沒有對剩下的24艘船做出正式的宣布。但這些將在未來幾天和幾週內到來。所以今天在那裡,或多或少,給予或接受,可能會有一些變化,但或多或少今天在那裡的是我們正在銷售的東西。我們談到了今年下半年的賬簿頭寸處於歷史新高。我們對此感到非常高興。人們正在預訂更遠的地方。所以我們看到了這樣做的好處。

  • The first half of the year, the only reason we didn't give a detailed year-over-year comparison of '22 versus '19 is because it is a bit of an apples and oranges comparison. While we are very pleased and look at the first half of the year and for the voyages that we're selling, we feel they're at the high end of the historical booking curve. The reason for the apples and oranges comparison is in the first half, we're not running most of the world cruises and all the long exotic voyages. And they tend to book much further out because they're much longer. So if we gave you the numbers, it would be an apples and oranges comparison. But it is fair to say that we feel very comfortable with the pricing and the book position for the first half of 2022.

    今年上半年,我們沒有對 22 年與 19 年進行詳細的同比比較的唯一原因是,這有點像蘋果和橘子的比較。雖然我們很高興看到今年上半年和我們正在銷售的航次,但我們認為它們處於歷史預訂曲線的高端。蘋果和橙子比較的原因是在上半年,我們沒有運行大部分的世界郵輪和所有漫長的異國航行。而且他們傾向於預訂更遠的地方,因為它們更長。所以如果我們給你數字,那將是一個蘋果和橘子的比較。但可以公平地說,我們對 2022 年上半年的定價和賬面狀況感到非常滿意。

  • Arnold W. Donald - CEO, President & Director

    Arnold W. Donald - CEO, President & Director

  • But Steve, as I said in the prepared comments, we will have -- we're planning to have the full fleet on in time for the summer season where we make the bulk of our profits. So for the second half of '22, we're looking to be in full force. Go ahead, David, you have another comment?

    但是史蒂夫,正如我在準備好的評論中所說的那樣,我們將 - 我們計劃在我們賺取大部分利潤的夏季及時投入使用。因此,對於 22 年下半年,我們希望全力以赴。繼續,大衛,你還有其他評論嗎?

  • David Bernstein - CFO & CAO

    David Bernstein - CFO & CAO

  • Steve, if you just -- we -- 47% of our capacity will be sailing in the -- our capacity will be sailing in the fourth quarter. We end the calendar year we said with nearly 65% of our capacity.

    史蒂夫,如果你只是 - 我們 - 我們 47% 的產能將在 - 我們的產能將在第四季度航行。我們以近 65% 的產能結束了我們所說的日曆年。

  • So during the first half of the year, we're going to go from somewhere around 60% on December 1, up to 100% at the end of the first half. So you can begin to see that the first half of the year is going to be somewhere in between that depending on the exact ramp-up of the capacity.

    因此,在今年上半年,我們將從 12 月 1 日的 60% 左右,到上半年末的 100%。所以你可以開始看到,今年上半年將介於兩者之間,具體取決於產能的確切增長。

  • Steven Moyer Wieczynski - MD of Equity Research and Gaming & Leisure Research Analyst

    Steven Moyer Wieczynski - MD of Equity Research and Gaming & Leisure Research Analyst

  • But to be clear, so if -- I'm going to make this up. So let's take a random -- let's take the Carnival Conquest, I'm going to make a ship up here. For the second half of next -- let's look at the second half of next year, are you selling 100% of that capacity today? Or are you still kind of holding back some of that capacity because you don't want to try to get up to that 100% level? And hopefully, that makes sense.

    但需要明確的是,如果——我要彌補這一點。所以讓我們來個隨機的——讓我們來參加嘉年華征服,我要在這裡造一艘船。對於明年下半年——讓我們看看明年下半年,你們今天是否銷售了 100% 的產能?還是因為您不想嘗試達到 100% 的水平,您仍然在某種程度上抑制了一些容量?希望這是有道理的。

  • David Bernstein - CFO & CAO

    David Bernstein - CFO & CAO

  • No, we're not for future voyages out there because, obviously, we're nowhere near selling out yet. Obviously, if we did, we would have underpriced it. We're not restricting the capacity that we're selling for the back half of 2022. There's no reason to it.

    不,我們不適合未來的航行,因為很明顯,我們還遠未售罄。顯然,如果我們這樣做,我們就會低估它的價格。我們不會限制我們在 2022 年下半年銷售的容量。沒有理由這樣做。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Our next question is from the line of Robin Farley with UBS.

    我們的下一個問題來自瑞銀的 Robin Farley。

  • Robin Margaret Farley - MD and Research Analyst

    Robin Margaret Farley - MD and Research Analyst

  • I wanted to clarify your commentary on the expenses. I know you mentioned some expenses next year, obviously, would not be recurring the capacity out of service, the restart costs. And then maybe the piece that it is would be the enhanced protocols. So if you looked at only the period where everything is operating and so the restart expense would not be in there and the burn of ships out of service.

    我想澄清一下你對費用的評論。我知道你提到了明年的一些費用,顯然,不會經常性地停止服務,重新啟動成本。然後可能是增強協議。因此,如果你只看一切都在運行的時期,那麼重啟費用就不會在那裡,也不會導致船隻停運。

  • For that period forward, and then I guess this would also mean for 2023, is it fair to say that your expense per passenger cruise day would be below 2019 levels when you exclude those sort of onetime restart costs?

    對於那個時期,然後我想這也意味著到 2023 年,當你排除那些一次性重啟成本時,你的每個乘客遊輪日的費用將低於 2019 年的水平是否公平?

  • David Bernstein - CFO & CAO

    David Bernstein - CFO & CAO

  • Well, so...

    那麼,那麼...

  • Arnold W. Donald - CEO, President & Director

    Arnold W. Donald - CEO, President & Director

  • Where I get -- go ahead, David. It's okay. Go ahead.

    我得到的地方 - 繼續,大衛。沒關係。前進。

  • David Bernstein - CFO & CAO

    David Bernstein - CFO & CAO

  • So when you exclude all of those costs and look into 2023, I mean, we had indicated that the benefit of the change in fleet was on the ship operating expenses was 4% per ALBD. We also have found efficiency shore side as well. And so there are cost efficiencies that we have. We're also -- as the whole world is, we are seeing some inflation. We're working hard to mitigate all of that inflation.

    因此,當你排除所有這些成本並展望 2023 年時,我的意思是,我們已經表明船隊變化的好處是船舶運營費用為每個 ALBD 4%。我們也發現岸邊也有效率。因此,我們擁有成本效益。我們也——就像整個世界一樣,我們看到了一些通貨膨脹。我們正在努力減輕所有這些通貨膨脹。

  • We don't see it nearly as much as people in the United States in terms of the labor, given our employment base comes from nearly 150 countries around the world on board our ships. So we have a much more of an opportunity there. And so we're working hard, but I'd be hesitant to give guidance on 2023 cost structure. I think it's just fair to say to give you all the pieces that are out there and then we'll give guidance as we get closer.

    考慮到我們的就業基礎來自全球近 150 個國家,在我們的船上,我們對勞動力的看法幾乎不及美國人民。所以我們在那裡有更多的機會。因此,我們正在努力工作,但我不願就 2023 年的成本結構提供指導。我認為可以公平地說給你所有的東西,然後我們會在接近時提供指導。

  • Robin Margaret Farley - MD and Research Analyst

    Robin Margaret Farley - MD and Research Analyst

  • Okay. Okay. No, that's helpful. So would you venture whether for 2022, whether the shoreside efficiencies would offset the inflation and enhanced protocols just for '22, if you exclude the -- if you get past the restart expenses?

    好的。好的。不,那很有幫助。那麼,如果您排除 - 如果您超過重啟費用,您是否會冒險在 2022 年,岸上效率是否會抵消通貨膨脹和僅針對 '22 的增強協議?

  • David Bernstein - CFO & CAO

    David Bernstein - CFO & CAO

  • Yes. I'd be hesitant to give guidance at this point. Clearly, the short side efficiencies will flow through. And since we're still working through all of the details relating to and sourcing and making changes and mitigating some of the inflationary costs. I'd be hesitant to give guidance. But you can be sure that we've got people focused on those items to optimize the situation.

    是的。在這一點上,我會猶豫是否提供指導。顯然,空方的效率將會流過。而且由於我們仍在研究與採購相關的所有細節,並進行更改並減輕一些通貨膨脹成本。我會猶豫是否提供指導。但你可以肯定,我們已經讓人們專注於這些項目以優化情況。

  • Robin Margaret Farley - MD and Research Analyst

    Robin Margaret Farley - MD and Research Analyst

  • Okay. Great. Helpful. And then my other question is just to clarify the commentary on price for next year. If we're just looking at the second half when it's a little more comparable. And then you said, excluding the future cruise credit discounts, the pricing is about in line with 2019 levels. I just want to make sure I understood when you gave your earlier commentary about how there is more bundling now. So more of what is being booked now for second half compared to 2019. Has more of sort of some of the onboard expense, right, kind of in the ticket price because of the bundling, if I'm understanding your comments right? And so I guess, I just want to clarify, when you are seeing price in line with 2019, is that sort of you have -- that after you've allocated some of the bundled ticket price on board? Or -- and then sorry, I guess I'm just trying to think about how comparable...

    好的。偉大的。有幫助。然後我的另一個問題只是澄清明年的價格評論。如果我們只看下半場,那麼它更具可比性。然後你說,不包括未來的郵輪信用折扣,定價與 2019 年的水平基本一致。我只是想確保我理解你之前發表的關於現在如何捆綁更多的評論。因此,與 2019 年相比,現在下半年預訂的東西更多。有更多的船上費用,對吧,因為捆綁,有點在票價中,如果我理解你的評論對嗎?所以我想,我只是想澄清一下,當你看到價格與 2019 年一致時,你有那種 - 在你分配了一些船上的捆綁票價之後?或者——然後抱歉,我想我只是想想想如何比較……

  • David Bernstein - CFO & CAO

    David Bernstein - CFO & CAO

  • Yes. We've tried to normalize it and do some level of allocation to be an apples-to-apples comparison.

    是的。我們試圖對其進行規範化,並進行一定程度的分配,以進行同類比較。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Our next question is from the line of Ben Chaiken with Credit Suisse.

    我們的下一個問題來自瑞士信貸的 Ben Chaiken。

  • Benjamin Nicolas Chaiken - Research Analyst

    Benjamin Nicolas Chaiken - Research Analyst

  • Risk of getting overly granular, but I'll try it anyway. If you think about the profitability of the ships, if you think about the profitability of the ships coming online and your new capacity, over the next couple of years or whatever next 2 or 3 years? And then compare that to the remaining legacy fully, obviously, excluding the 19 disposed of ships. Is there any way to ballpark compare those 2 kind of like sets of assets, whether it's margins, EBITDA, revenue premiums, like that's something that's anecdotally talked about in the industry, but that didn't make sense. I can try it differently or we can take it offline.

    過於細化的風險,但無論如何我都會嘗試。如果您考慮船舶的盈利能力,如果您考慮未來幾年或未來 2 或 3 年內上線船舶的盈利能力和您的新產能?然後將其與剩餘的遺產進行比較,顯然不包括 19 艘被處置的船隻。有沒有什麼方法可以大致比較這兩種類似的資產,無論是利潤率、EBITDA、收入溢價,就像業內經常談論的那樣,但這沒有意義。我可以嘗試不同的方式,或者我們可以將其離線。

  • Arnold W. Donald - CEO, President & Director

    Arnold W. Donald - CEO, President & Director

  • No. We have rules of thumb about the overall benefit of new ships relative to the fleet. So, David, you might want to...

    沒有。我們有關於新船相對於艦隊的整體利益的經驗法則。所以,大衛,你可能想……

  • David Bernstein - CFO & CAO

    David Bernstein - CFO & CAO

  • From a cost perspective, if you just look at the unit cost for the -- our new ships coming in, they tend to be 15% to 25% lower on a unit basis than the existing fleet.

    從成本的角度來看,如果你只看我們新船的單位成本,它們的單位成本往往比現有船隊低 15% 到 25%。

  • And from a fuel consumption perspective, we're talking more like 25% to 35% more fuel efficient on a unit basis. So we do see the enhanced profitability. And when you start adding in, of course, the better cabin mix, the more opportunity for onboard revenue because there are more -- there's more public space in the larger ships. So all of that does bode well for an improved return on the new ships versus the existing fleet.

    從油耗的角度來看,我們說的是單位燃油效率提高 25% 到 35%。所以我們確實看到了盈利能力的提高。當你開始加入時,當然,更好的客艙組合,更多的船上收入機會,因為有更多 - 更大的船有更多的公共空間。因此,所有這些都預示著新船相對於現有船隊的回報有所提高。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Our next question is from the line of Jaime Katz with Morningstar.

    我們的下一個問題來自 Jaime Katz 與 Morningstar 的合作。

  • Jaime M. Katz - Senior Equity Analyst

    Jaime M. Katz - Senior Equity Analyst

  • Now the ships are starting to be deployed, do you have a little bit more visibility on CapEx demands over the next year or 2 that you'd be willing to share with us? I mean, I know we have the cash burn, but it would be helpful to hear the difference between maybe CapEx and OpEx going forward.

    現在船隻開始部署,您是否對明年或兩年的資本支出需求有更多的了解,您願意與我們分享嗎?我的意思是,我知道我們在燒錢,但聽聽未來資本支出和運營支出之間的區別會很有幫助。

  • David Bernstein - CFO & CAO

    David Bernstein - CFO & CAO

  • Yes. We can share with you our CapEx projections without a doubt. So looking at 2022, and I'll give you the 2 pieces of CapEx. The non-new build CapEx, we're projecting about $1.5 billion and the new build is $4.5 billion. So it's about $6 billion in total. Keep in mind, remember that most of the new build is financed with the export credits that are already committed.

    是的。我們可以毫無疑問地與您分享我們的資本支出預測。所以看看 2022 年,我會給你 2 個資本支出。非新建資本支出,我們預計約為 15 億美元,新建項目為 45 億美元。所以總計約為60億美元。請記住,大部分新建築的資金來自已經承諾的出口信貸。

  • In 2023, the non-new build, we're forecasting about -- also about $1.5 billion, and the new build is $2.7 billion for a total of $4.2 billion. So we are expecting an increase in CapEx in '22 and '23 from where we are today in '21. But we're not expecting to go back. Pre-COVID, we had probably indicated a sort of a steady state CapEx of, call it, $2 billion, non-new build CapEx. And we do believe we'll probably get back there at some point in the future. But in the next 2 years, our best guess at this point is about $1.5 billion.

    到 2023 年,非新建築,我們預測 - 也約為 15 億美元,新建築為 27 億美元,總計 42 億美元。因此,我們預計 22 年和 23 年的資本支出會比我們今天在 21 年的水平有所增加。但我們不希望回去。在 COVID 之前,我們可能已經指出了一種穩定狀態的資本支出,稱之為 20 億美元的非新建資本支出。我們確實相信我們可能會在未來的某個時候回到那裡。但在接下來的兩年裡,我們目前的最佳猜測是大約 15 億美元。

  • Jaime M. Katz - Senior Equity Analyst

    Jaime M. Katz - Senior Equity Analyst

  • Okay. And then just going back to Robin's question on bundling. I'm curious whether you guys are thinking that the bundling behavior is something that's more secular. So over time, it's going to remain that the pricing component is less important than it was historically and that the onboard component is more important than it was historically. And I'm not sure if there's anything to read into that, but I don't know if it's a new secular trend or transitory?

    好的。然後回到羅賓關於捆綁的問題。我很好奇你們是否認為捆綁行為更世俗。因此,隨著時間的推移,定價部分將不再像過去那麼重要,而機載部分將比過去更重要。我不確定是否有什麼可以解讀的,但我不知道這是一種新的長期趨勢還是暫時的?

  • Arnold W. Donald - CEO, President & Director

    Arnold W. Donald - CEO, President & Director

  • Yes. Again, I think we have 9 brands. There's a lot of variability across the brands. And so we -- bundling has been around a while. It's not a new thing. But there has been a more recent trend that guests seem to prefer to have certain aspects of their experience bundled. And so there has been an increase in some aspects of that, whether that's an ongoing trend, probably, but we're going to stay flexible and dynamic and give the guests what they want.

    是的。同樣,我認為我們有 9 個品牌。品牌之間存在很多差異。所以我們 - 捆綁已經存在了一段時間。這不是什麼新鮮事。但最近出現了一種趨勢,即客人似乎更喜歡將他們體驗的某些方面捆綁在一起。因此,在某些方面有所增加,這可能是一種持續的趨勢,但我們將保持靈活性和活力,並為客人提供他們想要的東西。

  • David Bernstein - CFO & CAO

    David Bernstein - CFO & CAO

  • And I think one is... if i can add to it, Arnold, what are the benefits of the bundle package? I mean it gives the consumer a choice. And any choices you give the consumer creates hopefully, more demand and better pricing in the long run. But keep in mind that when somebody bundles -- when somebody pays for like their drink package and they're in and ahead of time.

    我認為一個是...如果我可以添加它,阿諾德,捆綁包的好處是什麼?我的意思是它給了消費者一個選擇。從長遠來看,你給消費者的任何選擇都有希望創造更多的需求和更好的定價。但請記住,當有人捆綁銷售時——當有人為他們的飲料包裝付款時,他們就提前了。

  • Well, first of all, that, of course, benefits the agent because they get a commission on the whole package. So it definitely does make the travel agents happy. But when the people get on board, they really have a fresh wallet. And because they've already paid for certain items, so they have a fresh wallet, they're starting over again.

    好吧,首先,這當然對代理商有利,因為他們從整個包裹中獲得佣金。所以這肯定會讓旅行社高興。但是當人們上船時,他們真的有了一個新的錢包。因為他們已經為某些物品付款,所以他們有了一個新的錢包,他們又重新開始了。

  • And we believe that with the fresh wallet, it does incentivize more onboard spend in total. So we would expect our onboards to be higher in the long run as a result of the bundling, and we did see it in the third quarter. I mean the onboard and other per diems were up significantly compared to 2019. And so some of that is the fresh wallet of people getting on board.

    我們相信,有了新錢包,它確實會刺激更多的機上消費。因此,從長遠來看,由於捆綁,我們預計我們的船上人數會更高,我們確實在第三季度看到了這一點。我的意思是,與 2019 年相比,機上津貼和其他津貼顯著增加。因此,其中一部分是新員工的新錢包。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Our next question is from the line of Assia Georgieva with Infinity Research.

    我們的下一個問題來自 Infinity Research 的 Assia Georgieva。

  • Assia Plamenova Georgieva - Principal & Analyst

    Assia Plamenova Georgieva - Principal & Analyst

  • I think you have been doing a great job and probably very happy to be so busy with restart. So congratulations. I had a -- my question is related -- again, Arnold, I think what you've done has been fantastic. And yes, good luck through the end of the year. My question was a little more in terms of sourcing and destinations. With the ships going back to warmer climates, including the Caribbean during the winter months, do you find any difficulties in terms of getting international passengers, especially from Europe with more stringent entry requirements into the U.S.

    我認為你一直做得很好並且可能很高興如此忙於重新啟動。恭喜你。我有一個——我的問題是相關的——再一次,阿諾德,我認為你所做的非常棒。是的,祝你年底好運。我的問題更多是關於來源和目的地。隨著船隻返回溫暖的氣候,包括在冬季的加勒比海,您是否發現國際乘客有任何困難,尤其是來自對美國入境要求更嚴格的歐洲乘客?

  • And secondly, Australia seems to continue to be a wildcard, even though it's a small market, relatively speaking, in terms of the capacity you have there. But it's also a somewhat important market during winter.

    其次,澳大利亞似乎仍然是一個通配符,儘管相對而言,就你在那裡的容量而言,它是一個小市場。但它在冬季也是一個有點重要的市場。

  • Arnold W. Donald - CEO, President & Director

    Arnold W. Donald - CEO, President & Director

  • Yes. Australia is an important market for certain and the travel restrictions absolutely play a part in terms of what we can do with occupancy ultimately. Now the encouraging sign is things continue to loosen up, things continue to improve. You can see in the U.K. where there's good momentum. They are further ahead on vaccinations, et cetera.

    是的。澳大利亞對某些人來說是一個重要的市場,旅行限制絕對會影響我們最終可以做什麼。現在令人鼓舞的跡像是事情繼續放鬆,事情繼續改善。你可以在英國看到勢頭良好的地方。他們在疫苗接種等方面遙遙領先。

  • You're seeing that U.S. recently made an announcement that you're fully aware of letting travelers from Europe come in and starting in November. But all of those things in the near term are impacting us for certain, and they will continue to evolve. Eventually Australia will open. Well, we'll be very excited about that and ready to take full advantage of it. And our team over there is working booking cruises going forward and so on in anticipation that you can see they will open.

    你看到美國最近宣布你完全意識到讓來自歐洲的旅客從 11 月開始入境。但所有這些在短期內都會對我們產生一定的影響,而且它們將繼續發展。最終澳大利亞將開放。好吧,我們會對此感到非常興奮,並準備好充分利用它。我們那邊的團隊正在努力預訂遊輪,等等,期待您能看到它們將開放。

  • But the world is just processing itself through this pandemic. And as we said and as I said in the remarks earlier on the prepared remarks, it's choppy, but there's movements forward. And the most important thing is that there is pent-up demand, people are very interested in the cruise experience, not just repeat cruise stores, but we're seeing lots of new to brand and new cruisers booking. And so that's a very positive sign. But we do have to get to the point, and we will get there where it's kind of back to some kind of a normal where people are free to travel.

    但是世界只是在通過這種大流行來處理自己。正如我們所說,正如我之前在準備好的評論中所說的那樣,它是波濤洶湧的,但有前進的動力。最重要的是存在被壓抑的需求,人們對郵輪體驗非常感興趣,不僅僅是重複郵輪商店,而且我們看到很多新品牌和新郵輪預訂。所以這是一個非常積極的跡象。但我們確實必須達到目的,我們將達到某種程度恢復到人們可以自由旅行的正常狀態。

  • David Bernstein - CFO & CAO

    David Bernstein - CFO & CAO

  • And if I can just add... Let me add some...

    如果我可以添加...讓我添加一些...

  • Arnold W. Donald - CEO, President & Director

    Arnold W. Donald - CEO, President & Director

  • Go ahead, David.

    去吧,大衛。

  • David Bernstein - CFO & CAO

    David Bernstein - CFO & CAO

  • In terms of your question about Europeans traveling to the United States for the Caribbean winter season, so keep in mind, we have multiple brands. And our European brands, essentially are home porting and other places in the Caribbean. So I don't remember every single home port. I mean, P&O in the U.K., I think home ports out of Barbados and (inaudible) and other places in the Caribbean. They choose home ports where there's great airlift from their home countries. So most of the Europeans who are coming to the Caribbean are going on our European brands and going somewhere in the Caribbean to embark on their vessel.

    關於歐洲人前往美國度過加勒比海冬季的問題,請記住,我們有多個品牌。而我們的歐洲品牌,本質上都是在加勒比海等地的母港和其他地方。所以我不記得每一個母港。我的意思是,英國的 P&O,我認為母港位於巴巴多斯和(聽不清)以及加勒比海的其他地方。他們選擇母港,那裡有來自本國的大量空運。因此,大多數來到加勒比海的歐洲人都會乘坐我們的歐洲品牌,前往加勒比海的某個地方登船。

  • The North American brands, which are sailing out of the United States, the overwhelming majority of their guests are probably North Americans sailing on the board ships in the wintertime. So it's -- travel restrictions are easing. People are starting to be able to come. I won't repeat everything that you probably already know. But it's not as big of an issue for us as -- given the structure of where people start their cruises.

    從美國出海的北美品牌,他們的客人絕大部分可能是在冬季登船航行的北美人。所以它 - 旅行限制正在放鬆。人們開始能夠來了。我不會重複您可能已經知道的所有內容。但這對我們來說並不是一個大問題——考慮到人們開始遊輪的結構。

  • Assia Plamenova Georgieva - Principal & Analyst

    Assia Plamenova Georgieva - Principal & Analyst

  • I think a comporting point that you've made is great, and I should have thought about that. And the second question, your yield management guys are probably working very hard because now they have even more levers to work with. So in addition to trying not to underprice and yet reaching occupancy levels where at the ship board level, at least, we're getting a cash benefit. Has there been any change, any restrictions in terms of occupancy? Or is it more a continuation of what you've been doing for decades trying to get the best price?

    我認為你提出的一個重要觀點很好,我應該考慮一下。第二個問題,您的收益管理人員可能正在非常努力地工作,因為現在他們有更多的槓桿可以使用。因此,除了盡量不低估價格並至少達到船板級別的入住率外,我們還獲得了現金收益。在入住方面是否有任何變化或限制?或者它更像是你幾十年來一直在做的試圖獲得最優惠價格的延續?

  • Arnold W. Donald - CEO, President & Director

    Arnold W. Donald - CEO, President & Director

  • We've intentionally restricted occupancy for a host of reasons, some related and -- because, again, the brand's all over the place in terms of jurisdictions. So some just to be in compliance, in some cases, others to give a ramp-up to -- because they have new protocols. We have to get the crew experience with it and experience with the guests to make sure we work on (inaudible) and some an artifact of the compliance measures, whether it's physical distancing or other requirements. And so at this point, yes, there's been intentional constraint.

    出於多種原因,我們有意限制了入住率,其中一些是相關的,而且——再一次,因為該品牌在管轄範圍內無處不在。所以有些人只是為了遵守,在某些情況下,其他人只是為了 - 因為他們有新的協議。我們必須獲得機組人員的經驗和與客人的經驗,以確保我們致力於(聽不清)和合規措施的一些工件,無論是身體距離還是其他要求。所以在這一點上,是的,存在有意的限制。

  • But as we said, where we have like normal cruises in the Caribbean, there's vaccinated cruises, but Carnival brand has been at 70% occupancy, which is fantastic given the number of ships they had in the protocols. And again, we intentionally tapped that. So as we begin to open up more, obviously, the yield management folks will have to sharpen their -- I was going to say pencils but nobody uses pencils anymore, jumping on their keyboards more and go to work on it. But it's -- we have good momentum. It's very disciplined. We have managed the timing of restarts of some ships thinking through these matters. And so it's a very proactive and to date, well managed relaunch giving us an opportunity to have strength in pricing going forward.

    但正如我們所說,我們在加勒比海有像普通郵輪一樣的地方,有接種疫苗的郵輪,但嘉年華品牌的入住率已經達到 70%,考慮到他們在協議中擁有的船隻數量,這真是太棒了。再一次,我們有意利用了這一點。因此,隨著我們開始更多地開放,顯然,收益管理人員將不得不削尖他們的——我想說的是鉛筆,但沒有人再使用鉛筆了,更多地跳上他們的鍵盤並開始工作。但它 - 我們有良好的勢頭。這是非常有紀律的。我們已經通過這些問題來管理一些船隻重新啟動的時間。因此,這是一個非常積極主動、迄今為止管理良好的重新啟動,讓我們有機會在未來的定價方面擁有優勢。

  • Assia Plamenova Georgieva - Principal & Analyst

    Assia Plamenova Georgieva - Principal & Analyst

  • The whole process is obviously well above my pay grade, so I still use pencils.

    整個過程明顯在我的pay grade之上,所以我還是用鉛筆。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Our next question is from the line of Brandt Montour with JPMorgan.

    我們的下一個問題來自摩根大通的 Brandt Montour。

  • Brandt Antoine Montour - Analyst

    Brandt Antoine Montour - Analyst

  • So David, I was wondering if you could maybe give us your view on how bookings cadence progressed throughout Delta, but just focused on sailings for the second half of '22. And then if there was a wobble at all, how did the industry respond to that in terms of pricing?

    所以大衛,我想知道你是否可以告訴我們你對整個三角洲的預訂節奏如何進展的看法,但只關注 22 年下半年的航行。然後,如果有任何波動,該行業在定價方面如何應對?

  • David Bernstein - CFO & CAO

    David Bernstein - CFO & CAO

  • Yes. So as I said in my prepared remarks, the impact in August of the Delta variant on bookings. It's really much more of a near-term phenomenon in terms of, call it, the next 6 months, maybe 9 months of bookings. The further out you go, it is really hard to even spot or distinguish a Delta variant trend in the booking patterns. So the second half remains strong and throughout the month of August.

    是的。因此,正如我在準備好的發言中所說,8 月份達美變體對預訂的影響。就未來 6 個月,也許 9 個月的預訂而言,這實際上更像是一種近期現象。你走得越遠,就很難在預訂模式中發現或區分 Delta 變體趨勢。因此,下半年在整個 8 月依然強勁。

  • And in terms of pricing, I think Arnold said this in his notes in his prepared remarks, we all believe that the Delta variant would -- we would get past this. And so our view was to maintain price and to make sure that we optimize revenue in the long run, not just bookings during the month of August, we still have plenty of time since we're ahead. We still have plenty of time to fill up the ships to the occupancy levels we're targeting for both the fourth quarter and for the first half of 2022. So we are holding price and we're in a good position.

    在定價方面,我認為阿諾德在他準備好的發言稿中說了這一點,我們都相信 Delta 變體會——我們會克服這個問題。因此,我們的觀點是維持價格並確保我們從長遠來看優化收入,而不僅僅是 8 月份的預訂,因為我們領先,我們還有很多時間。我們仍然有足夠的時間將船舶裝滿,達到我們為第四季度和 2022 年上半年設定的入住率水平。因此,我們保持價格,處於有利位置。

  • Brandt Antoine Montour - Analyst

    Brandt Antoine Montour - Analyst

  • Excellent. And then as a follow-up, I know you're targeting cash flow -- cash flow from operations breakeven sometimes early in '22, and I know that you didn't give a specific month on that, which we can appreciate. I'm just curious, what are you assuming in that for customer deposit inflows if anything, or it might still be elevated at that time. And so just curious what's baked in for that.

    出色的。然後作為後續行動,我知道你的目標是現金流——有時在 22 世紀初期來自運營盈虧平衡的現金流,我知道你沒有給出具體的月份,我們可以理解。我只是好奇,如果有的話,你假設客戶存款流入是什麼,或者它可能在那個時候仍然升高。所以很好奇為此做了什麼。

  • David Bernstein - CFO & CAO

    David Bernstein - CFO & CAO

  • Yes. Well, customer deposits at the end of the third quarter were $3.1 million. The last 2 quarters, they did increase. Our expectation is that they will continue to increase. Of course, in a steady-state environment, remember that the overwhelming majority of the customer deposits at any point in time are the final payments for the next 3 months of cruises. So as the capacity for the next 3 months continues to build towards the 100% next spring, you should see an increase in customer deposits over time as you continue to get more and more final payments.

    是的。那麼,第三季度末的客戶存款為 310 萬美元。最近兩個季度,他們確實增加了。我們的預期是它們會繼續增加。當然,在穩態環境中,請記住,在任何時間點,絕大多數客戶存款都是未來 3 個月郵輪旅行的最終付款。因此,隨著接下來 3 個月的產能繼續朝著明年春天的 100% 方向發展,隨著您繼續獲得越來越多的最終付款,您應該會看到客戶存款隨著時間的推移而增加。

  • Keep in mind, like for the fourth quarter, we only have 47% of the capacity in service, so there's only half of probably the final payments that you would see come next May. So you will continue to see an increase driven by that factor. And that should be a positive cash flow inflow to us over that time frame.

    請記住,就像第四季度一樣,我們只有 47% 的服務能力,因此您明年 5 月看到的最終付款可能只有一半。因此,您將繼續看到由該因素驅動的增長。在那個時間段內,這應該是我們的正現金流入。

  • Brandt Antoine Montour - Analyst

    Brandt Antoine Montour - Analyst

  • Okay. But maybe to ask a different way, do you need elevated customer deposit inflows to breakeven on cash flow from operations in the first half of next year?

    好的。但也許換個方式問,你是否需要增加客戶存款流入才能在明年上半年實現運營現金流的收支平衡?

  • David Bernstein - CFO & CAO

    David Bernstein - CFO & CAO

  • I'll -- EBITDA will also break even in the early part of 2022. So it's -- I'd give you that hopefully answers your question.

    我會 - EBITDA 也將在 2022 年初實現收支平衡。所以它 - 我會給你希望回答你的問題。

  • Brandt Antoine Montour - Analyst

    Brandt Antoine Montour - Analyst

  • Yes, that's helpful.

    是的,這很有幫助。

  • David Bernstein - CFO & CAO

    David Bernstein - CFO & CAO

  • Correct, in a much more direct way.

    正確,以更直接的方式。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Our next question is from the line of Stephen Grambling with Goldman Sachs.

    我們的下一個問題來自 Stephen Grambling 與 Goldman Sachs 的對話。

  • Stephen White Grambling - Equity Analyst

    Stephen White Grambling - Equity Analyst

  • Could you just talk about the pricing and booking dynamics between what you saw on Carnival versus maybe some of the other brands, specifically looking at second half '22 as itineraries normalized? Did you see any difference more recently in close-in bookings that may inform how that trajectory could evolve?

    您能否談談您在嘉年華上看到的與其他一些品牌之間的定價和預訂動態,特別是在行程正常化後的 22 年下半年?您最近是否發現近距離預訂有任何差異,這些差異可能會影響該軌跡如何演變?

  • Arnold W. Donald - CEO, President & Director

    Arnold W. Donald - CEO, President & Director

  • I would say to begin with, we see strength across the branded portfolio and that's very encouraging to us. But go ahead, David, with any specific comments you might want to make.

    我想說的是,首先,我們看到了整個品牌組合的實力,這對我們來說非常鼓舞人心。但是,戴維,請繼續說你可能想發表的任何具體評論。

  • David Bernstein - CFO & CAO

    David Bernstein - CFO & CAO

  • For the back half of '22, I mean, as Arnold said, all the brands are strong, things are going well. It's all the -- we're getting back to sort of a normalized comparison of full breadth of itineraries across the whole fleet. And so we feel very good about that. As I said, the back half of 2022 was at a historical high. And we saw great trends in all brands and on both sides of the Atlantic. So there's nothing particular to note there. Closer in, some of that is just a function of itineraries and marketplaces, but we are seeing good occupancy and across all the brands. I gave you the occupancy figures for the third quarter. Clearly, the European brands had more capacity restrictions in the third quarter.

    對於 22 年的後半段,我的意思是,正如阿諾德所說,所有品牌都很強大,一切進展順利。這就是所有 - 我們正在回到對整個艦隊的全部行程的標準化比較。所以我們對此感覺很好。正如我所說,2022 年下半年處於歷史高位。我們在大西洋兩岸的所有品牌中都看到了巨大的趨勢。所以這裡沒有什麼特別需要注意的。在更近的地方,其中一些只是行程和市場的功能,但我們看到所有品牌的入住率都很高。我給了你第三季度的入住率數據。顯然,歐洲品牌在第三季度受到了更多的產能限制。

  • The U.K. restrictions go away, but the Continental Europe social distancing restrictions remain at least for part of the quarter. So I -- there's nothing worth noting. I think we're seeing good comparisons and good booking trends across all the brands. There are small differences, but some of that also has to do with itinerary length between the different brands in the marketplaces.

    英國的限制消失了,但歐洲大陸的社交距離限制至少在本季度的部分時間仍然存在。所以我 - 沒有什麼值得注意的。我認為我們看到了所有品牌的良好比較和良好的預訂趨勢。差異很小,但其中一些也與市場中不同品牌之間的行程長度有關。

  • Arnold W. Donald - CEO, President & Director

    Arnold W. Donald - CEO, President & Director

  • We'll take one last question, operator. Yes, I'm sorry, go ahead. This will be the last question. Go ahead.

    接線員,我們將提出最後一個問題。是的,對不起,繼續。這將是最後一個問題。前進。

  • Stephen White Grambling - Equity Analyst

    Stephen White Grambling - Equity Analyst

  • I may have missed this, but I was wondering if you had any way you can quantify the potential kind of sustained structural cost increases that you have from some of the health actions. And as you mentioned, there are some supply chain disruptions. So I'm wondering if you can help frame kind of the level of inflation you may be seeing, whether it's in labor or commodities.

    我可能錯過了這一點,但我想知道你是否有任何方法可以量化你從一些健康行動中獲得的潛在持續結構性成本增加。正如您提到的,供應鏈存在一些中斷。所以我想知道你是否可以幫助確定你可能看到的通貨膨脹水平,無論是勞動力還是商品。

  • Arnold W. Donald - CEO, President & Director

    Arnold W. Donald - CEO, President & Director

  • Yes. Real quick, I'll make a general comment. I think from a sustainable cost standpoint, a lot of the protocols, the start-up costs, of course, will go away. Lot of protocol costs will also go away because over time, the protocols won't be required. Once we get to a point where it's only protocol costs, those are in the hundreds of thousands versus per ship versus millions of dollars per ship or whatever. And again, we suspect that those will reduce over time as well. David?

    是的。真的很快,我會做一個一般性的評論。我認為從可持續成本的角度來看,很多協議、啟動成本當然會消失。很多協議成本也將消失,因為隨著時間的推移,協議將不再需要。一旦我們達到僅協議成本的地步,這些成本就會達到數十萬美元與每艘船相比,每艘船數百萬美元或其他任何東西。而且,我們懷疑這些也會隨著時間的推移而減少。大衛?

  • David Bernstein - CFO & CAO

    David Bernstein - CFO & CAO

  • Yes. I agree with Arnold. And I will tell you, I'm reluctant at this point to try to peg this because there's so many moving parts and variables and so many things we're working on that when we get closer, we'll have much better clarity, but there's a lot of opportunity out there for us. And you can be sure we're working hard to maximize those opportunities in every way with every supplier and every item we source as well as the labor and other things. So we'll give you more guidance as time goes on, but just recognize, we are clearly focused on this on an ongoing basis.

    是的。我同意阿諾德的觀點。我會告訴你,在這一點上,我不願意試圖把它固定下來,因為有太多的移動部分和變量,還有太多我們正在研究的事情,當我們接近時,我們會有更好的清晰度,但是我們有很多機會。你可以確定我們正在努力以各種方式與每個供應商和我們採購的每件物品以及勞動力和其他東西一起最大限度地利用這些機會。因此,隨著時間的推移,我們會為您提供更多指導,但請注意,我們顯然會持續關注這一點。

  • Arnold W. Donald - CEO, President & Director

    Arnold W. Donald - CEO, President & Director

  • And thank you, everyone. We really appreciate your support and ongoing interest and we're very excited to be having the results we're having at this point. Thank you so much.

    謝謝大家。我們非常感謝您的支持和持續關注,我們很高興能取得目前的成果。太感謝了。

  • David Bernstein - CFO & CAO

    David Bernstein - CFO & CAO

  • Thank you, everyone. Have a....

    謝謝大家。有一個....

  • Arnold W. Donald - CEO, President & Director

    Arnold W. Donald - CEO, President & Director

  • Operator?

    操作員?

  • Operator

    Operator

  • That does conclude the conference call for today. We thank you for your participation and ask that you please disconnect your lines.

    這確實結束了今天的電話會議。我們感謝您的參與,並請您斷開您的線路。