Corteva Inc (CTVA) 2025 Q3 法說會逐字稿

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(Operator Instructions)

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I would now like to turn the call over to Kim Booth, Vice President of Investor Relations. Please go ahead.

現在我將把電話交給投資人關係副總裁金‧布斯。請繼續。

Good morning, and welcome to Corteva's third quarter 2025 earnings conference call. Our prepared remarks today will be led by Chuck Magro, Chief Executive Officer; and David Johnson, Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer. Additionally, Judd O'Connor, Executive Vice President, Seed Business Unit; and Robert King, Executive Vice President, Crop Protection business unit, will join the Q&A session.

早安，歡迎參加科迪華2025年第三季財報電話會議。今天，我們的演講將由執行長 Chuck Magro 和執行副總裁兼財務長 David Johnson 領銜。此外，種子業務部執行副總裁賈德·奧康納和作物保護業務部執行副總裁羅伯特·金也將參加問答環節。

We have prepared presentation slides to supplement our remarks during this call, which are posted on the Investor Relations section of the Corteva website and through the link to our webcast. During this call, we will make forward-looking statements, which are our expectations about the future. These statements are based on current expectations and assumptions that are subject to various risks and uncertainties.

我們準備了演示文稿，以補充我們在本次電話會議中的發言，這些演示文稿已發佈在 Corteva 網站的投資者關係部分，並通過我們的網絡直播鏈接發布。在本次電話會議中，我們將發表一些前瞻性聲明，這些聲明表達了我們對未來的預期。這些陳述是基於當前的預期和假設，但存在各種風險和不確定性。

Our actual results could materially differ from these statements due to these risks and uncertainties, included, but not limited to, those discussed on this call and in the Risk Factors section of our reports filed with the SEC. We do not undertake any duty to update any forward-looking statements.

由於存在這些風險和不確定性，我們的實際結果可能與這些聲明有重大差異，這些風險和不確定性包括但不限於本次電話會議中討論的風險和不確定性，以及我們在向美國證券交易委員會提交的報告的「風險因素」部分中討論的風險和不確定性。我們不承擔更新任何前瞻性陳述的義務。

Please note in today's presentation, we'll be making references to certain non-GAAP financial measures. Reconciliations of the non-GAAP measures can be found in our earnings press releases and related schedules along with our supplemental financial summary slide deck available on our Investor Relations website.

請注意，在今天的演示中，我們將提及一些非GAAP財務指標。非GAAP指標的調節表可在我們的獲利新聞稿和相關附表以及投資者關係網站上提供的補充財務摘要幻燈片中找到。

It's now my pleasure to turn the call over to Chuck.

現在我很高興把電話交給查克。

Thanks, Kim. Good morning, everyone, and thanks for joining us. Before we get into our solid third quarter results, I'd like to address our October 1 announcement on our intent to separate into two public companies. This proactive strategic decision is rooted in our belief that separating our Seed and Crop Protection businesses now allows both to be better positioned to achieve their maximum long-term growth potential in the future.

謝謝你，金。各位早安，感謝各位的收看。在詳細介紹我們穩健的第三季業績之前，我想先談談我們10月1日宣布的關於分拆成兩家上市公司的計劃。這項積極主動的策略決策源自於我們的信念：現在將種子業務和作物保護業務分開，可以讓這兩個業務在未來更好地發揮其最大的長期成長潛力。

Bringing these businesses together six years ago, was undoubtedly the right thing to do as demonstrated by our strong track record, including this most recent quarter. We have clearly been among the market leaders, but we have an obligation to look ahead past the short term and ensure both companies are able to pursue their distinct opportunities to the fullest extent.

六年前將這些企業合併在一起無疑是正確的決定，我們強勁的業績記錄，包括最近一個季度的業績，都證明了這一點。我們顯然一直是市場領導者之一，但我們有義務著眼於長遠，確保兩家公司都能最大限度地抓住各自獨特的機會。

So it's not that we believe things aren't going well today. They are. It's that we believe things could be even better in the future as two separate companies. It's really that straightforward. As we said last month, the seed genetics landscape is changing due to new technologies like gene editing and artificial intelligence, which opens new markets and opportunities for companies with scalable ag science capabilities.

所以並不是說我們認為現在的情況不好。沒錯。我們認為，未來兩家獨立公司的發展可能會更好。就是這麼簡單。正如我們上個月所說，由於基因編輯和人工智慧等新技術，種子遺傳學格局正在發生變化，這為具有可擴展農業科學能力的公司開闢了新的市場和機會。

At the same time, rising pest and disease pressures and changing weather patterns have driven a shift from single to multiple modes of action in crop protection, including biological solutions. As a result, the market has gradually transitioned away from integrated proprietary models to more open-source licensing with collaborations now driving innovation success.

同時，病蟲害壓力不斷增加以及氣候模式的變化，促使作物保護從單一作用方式轉向多種作用方式，包括生物防治。因此，市場已逐漸從整合專有模式過渡到更開放的授權模式，而合作現在是推動創新成功的關鍵。

As a result, industry players are increasingly open to working together, which also allows them to share resources and reduce risk. And importantly, it allows us to get affordable top technologies into the hands of farmers. So we are looking ahead with excitement and optimism, comforted by the fact that both of these businesses are leaders in their markets today and will remain so in the future.

因此，業內人士越來越願意合作，這也有助於他們共享資源並降低風險。更重要的是，它使我們能夠以實惠的價格將頂尖技術送到農民手中。因此，我們滿懷興奮和樂觀地展望未來，並欣慰地看到這兩家企業目前都是各自市場的領導者，未來也將繼續保持這一地位。

It's early days, but the process remains on schedule for a second half 2026 separation. Our Board has initiated a global CEO search for Corteva and we will provide updates on the separation along the way, but our goal right now is to deliver a strong 2025 and 2026.

雖然現在下結論還為時過早，但分離進程仍按計劃進行，預計將於 2026 年下半年完成。我們的董事會已啟動 Corteva 的全球執行長遴選工作，我們將隨時更新分拆進度，但我們現在的目標是實現 2025 年和 2026 年的強勁業績。

So let's now move to our current financial performance. Our results for the third quarter were largely in line with our own expectations, with the exception of outperformance on our controllables and strong early safrinha seed demand in Brazil. Operationally, we continue to execute well with double-digit operating EBITDA gains in both businesses, and we're now expecting to deliver over $600 million in controllable benefits this year, a notable improvement from our prior estimate of $530 million. In fact, this year's nine-month earnings performance is already ahead of full year 2024.

接下來我們來看看目前的財務表現。第三季的業績基本上符合我們的預期，但可控因素表現超出預期，巴西早期的薩弗林哈種子需求強勁。在營運方面，我們繼續保持良好的執行力，兩項業務的營運 EBITDA 均實現了兩位數的成長，我們現在預計今年可控收益將超過 6 億美元，比我們之前估計的 5.3 億美元有了顯著提高。事實上，今年前九個月的獲利表現已經超過了 2024 年全年的獲利表現。

Our Seed business is performing well again this year, including $200 million of productivity and deflation benefits as well as $90 million in royalty improvement, reflecting our leading position in North America corn and progress in soybean out-licensing in Brazil.

今年我們的種子業務再次表現出色，包括 2 億美元的生產力和通貨緊縮收益，以及 9000 萬美元的特許權使用費增長，這反映了我們在北美玉米領域的領先地位以及在巴西大豆對外授權方面取得的進展。

Importantly, we now expect to cross double-digit trade penetration for Conkesta next year in Brazil, the largest soybean market on the planet. Capturing price for value in most regions as well as meaningful share gains in North America is a testament to the high return on investment our technologies provide to farmers.

重要的是，我們現在預計明年 Conkesta 在巴西（全球最大的大豆市場）的貿易滲透率將突破兩位數。在大多數地區實現物有所值，並在北美取得顯著的市場份額成長，證明了我們的技術為農民帶來的高投資回報。

In 2026, we will roll out several hundred new hybrids and varieties around the world, once again, helping farmers increase yield and productivity. Finally, let me remind you that seed is the only crop input that gets better and better every year, allowing the farmer a solid return on their investment.

2026年，我們將向全世界推出數百個新的雜交品種和新品種，再次幫助農民提高產量和生產力。最後，我想提醒大家，種子是唯一每年都在不斷改進的農作物投入品，可以讓農民獲得可觀的投資回報。

The Crop Protection business has also delivered solid earnings and margin growth so far this year. Led by demand for our differentiated technology, we are expecting full year EBITDA to be up high single digits this year. We continue to see volume gains and we remain committed to our strategy of focusing on differentiated and new technologies, which carry a premium in the market.

今年以來，作物保護業務也實現了穩健的獲利和利潤成長。受市場對我們差異化技術的需求推動，我們預計今年全年 EBITDA 將實現高個位數成長。我們持續看到銷售成長，我們將繼續致力於專注於差異化和新技術的策略，這些技術在市場上具有溢價優勢。

Today, we're also announcing a brand name for our new next-gen insecticide active, Varpelgo, for chewing pests in fruits and vegetables, row crops and rice. Expected to launch in the early 2030s and cross $750 million in revenues at its peak, this represents the latest addition to the Corteva portfolio of trusted crop protection active ingredients inspired by nature and globally recognized for their more environmentally friendly profiles.

今天，我們也要宣布我們新一代殺蟲劑活性成分 Varpelgo 的品牌名稱，用於防治水果、蔬菜、大田作物和水稻中的咀嚼性害蟲。預計將於 2030 年代初推出，並在巔峰時期實現超過 7.5 億美元的收入，這代表了 Corteva 值得信賴的作物保護活性成分組合的最新成員，這些活性成分的靈感源於自然，並因其更環保的特性而享譽全球。

Included in our $9 billion Crop Protection Technology pipeline are billion-dollar product families and biologicals in all three chemistry indications as well as what we view to be a significant value unlock in our Seed Applied Technology business as a result of the separation.

我們價值 90 億美元的作物保護技術產品線包括價值數十億美元的產品系列和所有三種化學適應症的生物製劑，而且我們認為，由於此次分拆，我們的種子應用技術業務將獲得巨大的價值釋放。

In like seed, our Crop Protection business is generating substantial value through its focus on controllables which drove over $250 million of benefits in the first nine months of the year. From an industry perspective, the overall ag market fundamentals remain mixed. We're still seeing record demand for food and fuel and major crop inventories are within normal ranges despite large crops in Brazil and North America.

與種子業務類似，我們的作物保護業務透過專注於可控因素創造了巨大的價值，在今年前九個月帶來了超過 2.5 億美元的收益。從產業角度來看，整體農業市場基本面依然喜憂參半。儘管巴西和北美農作物豐收，但我們仍然看到食品和燃料的需求創下歷史新高，主要農作物庫存仍在正常範圍內。

Farmers continue to prioritize top-tier seed technologies while managing tighter margins. In the crop protection market, although we continue to experience competitive pricing dynamics in some major markets, underlying farmer demand in terms of applications remain on track with historical levels. In other words, when farmers have crop problems, they spray with the best solution they can find.

農民在利潤空間日益縮小的情況下，仍然優先考慮一流的種子技術。在作物保護市場，儘管我們在一些主要市場繼續經歷競爭激烈的價格動態，但就應用而言，農民的基本需求仍然與歷史水準保持一致。換句話說，當農民遇到作物問題時，他們會噴灑他們能找到的最好的解決方案。

So what does all this mean for the remainder of the year? We are raising our full year operating EBITDA range to $3.8 billion to $3.9 billion, which at the midpoint translates to 14% growth versus the prior year. This update reflects growth of our new technologies, our outperformance on controllable levers, a more favorable currency impact and our latest expectations on our fourth quarter performance in Brazil.

那麼，這一切對今年剩餘時間意味著什麼？我們將全年營運 EBITDA 預期範圍上調至 38 億美元至 39 億美元，其中數值相當於比上一年成長 14%。本次更新反映了我們新技術的發展、我們在可控因素方面的出色表現、更有利的匯率影響以及我們對巴西第四季度業績的最新預期。

One quick note. We look at our business by halves, not quarters. It's one reason why we don't provide quarterly guidance. Farmers plan their purchases and business by halves and weather or other uncontrollable factors often move orders, sales and shipping between quarters.

補充一點。我們看待業務時，是以中段為單位，而不是以季度為單位。這也是我們不提供季度業績指引的原因之一。農民按季度計劃採購和經營，但天氣或其他不可控因素經常導致訂單、銷售和發貨在不同季度之間轉移。

Looking at this year, the halves really do tell a story. In the first half of this year, our operating EBITDA was up 14%, while our second half is expected to be up 17%, both really strong performances. On full year EBITDA margin, we're now expecting improvement of over 160 basis points and a solid step towards our goal of 24% at the midpoint by 2027. A quick reminder: when Corteva launched in 2019, our margins were below 15%.

從今年的情況來看，上下半場比賽確實講述了一個故事。今年上半年，我們的營運 EBITDA 成長了 14%，預計下半年將成長 17%，這兩個業績都非常強勁。就全年 EBITDA 利潤率而言，我們現在預計將提高 160 個基點以上，並朝著 2027 年中期目標 24% 邁出堅實的一步。簡單提醒一下：Corteva 於 2019 年成立時，我們的利潤率低於 15%。

Finally, it's also important to note that we're still expecting a free cash flow conversion rate in the range of 50% for the year as well as $1 billion in share repurchases this year.

最後，值得注意的是，我們仍然預計今年的自由現金流轉換率將達到 50% 左右，今年將回購 10 億美元的股票。

Now let's move to the first look at how we're thinking about 2026. From a macro perspective, we're anticipating a continuation of record demand for grains, oilseeds, meat and biofuels. On-farm demand is expected to remain steady, and farmers will continue to prioritize top-tier technologies in order to maximize their yields. A farmer seed selection is particularly critical and is nondiscretionary when compared to other crop inputs.

現在讓我們初步了解我們對 2026 年的設想。從宏觀角度來看，我們預期對穀物、油籽、肉類和生質燃料的需求將繼續創下紀錄。預計農場需求將保持穩定，農民將繼續優先考慮頂尖技術，以最大限度地提高產量。與其他作物投入品相比，農民選擇種子特別關鍵，且不容隨意決定。

Given the high corn area in the US this year, it's logical to assume we'll see a couple of million acres shift back to soybeans in 2026. With the overhang of global trade uncertainty, it would be premature to discuss how large a shift might be, but we do not consider it to be disruptive to our planning assumptions given our market-leading position on both crops now.

鑑於今年美國玉米種植面積很高，我們有理由推測，到 2026 年，將有數百萬英畝的土地重新種植大豆。鑑於全球貿易不確定性持續存在，現在討論可能發生多大的變化還為時過早，但考慮到我們目前在兩種作物上的市場領先地位，我們認為這不會對我們的規劃假設造成乾擾。

Global trade discussions remain dynamic. However, last week, China committed to buying 12 million metric tons of soybeans this season, followed by at least 25 million metric tons per year for the next three years. We will continue to monitor the situation, but this should be welcome news for US farmers.

全球貿易談判依然活躍。然而，中國上週承諾本季購買 1,200 萬噸大豆，並在未來三年內每年至少購買 2,500 萬噸。我們將繼續關注事態發展，但這對美國農民來說應該是個好消息。

Perhaps most notable is that we are now expecting low single-digit growth in the crop protection industry including high single-digit growth in biologicals. This would be a good first step in the overall return to a healthy CP market. With the exception of Latin America, where we expect competitive pressure to keep prices flat to modestly down, we see overall CP market pricing stabilizing in 2026.

最值得注意的是，我們現在預計作物保護產業將實現個位數低成長，其中生物製劑將實現個位數高成長。這將是商品期貨市場整體恢復健康發展的良好開端。除了拉丁美洲（我們預計競爭壓力將使價格保持平穩或略有下降）之外，我們認為整體CP市場價格將在2026年趨於穩定。

Turning back to Corteva. What continues to set us apart is the strength of our portfolio, a continued focus on execution and increased investment in innovation. The introduction of hundreds of new products is expected to continue to drive solid returns for farmers and thus, a premium in the market and contribute to our volume growth. We're also expecting a continuation of sizable productivity benefits in both businesses, a defining characteristic of our margin enhancement journey.

轉而選擇科迪華。我們之所以能夠脫穎而出，是因為我們擁有強大的產品組合，持續專注於執行，並不斷增加對創新的投入。數百種新產品的推出預計將繼續為農民帶來豐厚的回報，從而在市場上獲得溢價，並促進我們的銷售成長。我們也預期兩項業務的生產力將持續大幅提升，這是我們提高利潤率歷程的顯著特徵。

Overall, when considering the market backdrop in 2026 as well as the growth opportunities we have in motion, we're currently anticipating full year operating EBITDA in the range of $4.1 billion which translate to mid-single-digit growth year-over-year, and we'll provide a more detailed view in early February when we issue formal guidance.

總體而言，考慮到 2026 年的市場背景以及我們正在推進的成長機會，我們目前預計全年營運 EBITDA 將在 41 億美元左右，這意味著同比增長個位數中段，我們將在 2 月初發布正式指引時提供更詳細的說明。

Let me wrap up by saying that we built a foundation of strength that gives us the ability to shape the next chapter of value creation on our own terms. Our intended separation is about sharpening focus, accelerating innovation and unlocking value that's been earned through performance. And we are committed to delivering results like this past quarter throughout this transition period.

最後我想說的是，我們已經建立了強大的基礎，讓我們能夠以自己的方式塑造價值創造的下一個篇章。我們計劃分拆的目的是為了更清楚地聚焦重點，加速創新，並釋放透過業績贏得的價值。我們承諾在整個過渡期內，都能取得像上個季度一樣的表現。

And with that, let me turn it over to David.

那麼，接下來就交給大衛吧。

Thanks, Chuck, and welcome, everyone, to the call. Let's start on slide 7, which provides the financial results for the quarter and year-to-date. Sales and operating EBITDA for both the quarter and year-to-date were up versus prior year driven by continued execution on controlling the controllables and an early start to the Latin America safrinha season.

謝謝查克，也歡迎各位參加通話。讓我們從第 7 張投影片開始，其中提供了本季和年初至今的財務表現。由於持續有效控制可控因素以及拉丁美洲海鮮季的提前開始，本季和年初至今的銷售額和營業 EBITDA 均較上年同期成長。

Briefly touching on the quarter, organic sales were up 11% compared to prior year with gains in both Seed and Crop Protection. Value capture remains steady overall as improved execution in seed was balanced by continued pressure in Crop Protection. Third quarter volumes were up 12%. We see gains in Latin America and EMEA, coupled with Crop Protection volume growth led by North America and Latin America.

簡要回顧本季度，有機銷售額比上年同期增長了 11%，其中種子和作物保護產品均有所增長。整體而言，價值獲取保持穩定，種子業務執行力的提高與作物保護業務持續面臨的壓力相平衡。第三季銷量成長了12%。我們看到拉丁美洲和歐洲、中東及非洲地區的業務有所成長，同時北美和拉丁美洲引領了作物保護業務量的成長。

Top line growth and meaningful cost improvement translated into positive operating EBITDA in the quarter versus a loss in prior year and over 600 basis points of margin expansion compared to prior year.

營收成長和成本顯著改善轉化為本季正的經營性 EBITDA，而去年同期為虧損，利潤率較上年同期提高了 600 多個基點。

Focusing on year-to-date, organic sales were up 6% over last year, again, with growth in both Seed and Crop Protection. A continuation of the price for value strategy along with increased corn acres in North America and Latin America drove seed price mix and volume gains of 3% and 4%, respectively.

從今年迄今的情況來看，有機產品的銷售額比去年同期增長了 6%，種子和作物保護產品均實現了成長。價格與價值策略的延續，以及北美和拉丁美洲玉米種植面積的增加，分別推動種子價格組合和銷量成長了 3% 和 4%。

Crop Protection price was down 2% year-to-date as expected, driven by competitive market dynamics, mostly in Brazil. Crop Protection volume was up 7%, but gains in nearly every region. Notably, new products and biologicals delivered double-digit volume gains compared to prior year. Operating EBITDA was up 19% over prior year, operating EBITDA margin of over 25% was up about 320 basis points driven by organic sales growth, coupled with significant benefits from lower input costs and productivity.

正如預期，受競爭激烈的市場動態（主要在巴西）的影響，作物保護產品價格今年迄今下降了 2%。作物保護產品銷售量成長了7%，但幾乎每個地區都實現了成長。值得注意的是，新產品和生物製品的銷售量較上年實現了兩位數的成長。營業 EBITDA 比前一年成長 19%，營業 EBITDA 利潤率超過 25%，成長約 320 個基點，這主要得益於有機銷售成長，以及投入成本和生產力降低帶來的顯著效益。

Moving on to slide 8 for a summary of the year-to-date operating EBITDA performance. Operating EBITDA was up more than $550 million to just over $3.4 billion. Price and mix, volume gains and cost benefits more than offset currency headwinds. Seed continues to make progress on its path to royalty neutrality with about $90 million in reduced net royalty expense. This improvement was driven by increased out-licensing income in North American corn and lower royalty expense in soybeans. By the end of the year, we expect our net royalty expense position to be around $120 million.

接下來請看第 8 張投影片，其中總結了今年迄今的經營 EBITDA 業績。營運 EBITDA 成長超過 5.5 億美元，達到略高於 34 億美元。價格和產品組合、銷售成長和成本效益足以抵銷匯率不利影響。Seed 在實現版稅中立的道路上持續取得進展，淨版稅支出減少了約 9000 萬美元。這項改善得益於北美玉米對外授權收入的增加和大豆特許權使用費支出的降低。預計到年底，我們的淨特許權使用費支出將達到約 1.2 億美元。

Season Crop Protection combined to deliver over $500 million in productivity and cost benefits, including lower seed commodity costs, raw material deflation and continued productivity actions. Year-to-date SG&A was up compared to prior year, driven by higher commissions and compensation expense. The increased investment in R&D aligns with our target and is on track to reach 8% of sales for the full year.

季節性作物保護措施共同帶來了超過 5 億美元的生產力和成本效益，包括降低種子商品成本、原材料通貨緊縮和持續的生產力提升措施。今年迄今的銷售、一般及行政費用較上年同期增加，主要原因是佣金和薪資支出增加。加大研發投入符合我們的目標，預計全年達到銷售額的 8%。

As expected, currency was roughly $170 million headwind on EBITDA, driven by the Brazilian real, Turkish lira and Canadian dollar. Both Seed and Crop Protection continue to have an impressive year-to-date performance, expand on their double-digit EBITDA growth while providing meaningful margin expansion over prior year. In addition, free cash flow has improved over $917 million from the prior year. This was driven by our increased EBITDA, lower cash taxes and lower capital expenditures.

正如預期的那樣，匯率波動給 EBITDA 帶來了約 1.7 億美元的不利影響，主要原因是巴西雷亞爾、土耳其里拉和加元的貶值。種子和作物保護業務今年迄今的業績依然令人矚目，在兩位數 EBITDA 成長的基礎上，利潤率較上年實現了顯著增長。此外，自由現金流比前一年增加了 9.17 億美元以上。這主要得益於我們 EBITDA 的成長、現金稅收的減少以及資本支出的降低。

With that, let's go to slide 9 in transition to the updated outlook for the full year. Our updated '25 guidance reflects the strength of our year-to-date performance and continued confidence in delivering the fourth quarter. As a reminder, in the second half of 2024, we delivered $425 million of EBITDA, with all of that earned in the fourth quarter when we achieved $525 million, largely due to a near record crop protection quarter. This year, that risk is reduced as a portion of those earnings have already been realized in the third quarter.

接下來，讓我們翻到第 9 張投影片，了解全年的最新展望。我們更新後的 2025 年業績預期反映了我們今年迄今為止的強勁表現以及對第四季度業績的持續信心。提醒一下，2024 年下半年，我們實現了 4.25 億美元的 EBITDA，其中全部是在第四季度實現的，當時我們達到了 5.25 億美元，這主要歸功於作物保護業務接近歷史最高水平的季度業績。今年，由於部分收益已在第三季實現，因此這種風險有所降低。

For the second half of 2025, we still expect approximately 17% growth over prior year. As Chuck mentioned, we now expect operating EBITDA in the range of $3.8 billion to $3.9 billion, representing 14% growth at the midpoint. This increase is driven by broad-based organic sales growth and incremental cost improvement benefits across both businesses.

我們預計 2025 年下半年仍將比上年增長約 17%。正如 Chuck 所提到的，我們現在預計營運 EBITDA 將在 38 億美元至 39 億美元之間，中位數為 14%。這一成長是由兩家公司整體的有機銷售成長和成本改善所帶來的逐步效益所驅動的。

As a result, we now expect operating EBITDA margin expansion of approximately 165 basis points. We are also raising our operating EPS guide to $3.25 to $3.35 per share, up 28% at the midpoint versus last year. This reflects stronger EBITDA performance and lower-than-expected net interest expense and foreign exchange losses.

因此，我們現在預計營業 EBITDA 利潤率將擴大約 165 個基點。我們同時將營運每股收益預期上調至每股 3.25 美元至 3.35 美元，中位數較去年同期成長 28%。這反映出 EBITDA 表現強勁，淨利息支出和外匯損失低於預期。

Finally, we are reconfirming our free cash flow guidance of approximately $1.9 billion with cash conversion rate of about 50%. This improvement is primarily driven by earnings growth.

最後，我們再次確認自由現金流預期約 19 億美元，現金轉換率約 50%。這項改善主要得益於獲利成長。

With that, let's go to slide 10 and summarize the key takeaways. First, while we still have an important quarter of the year left to go, we delivered a strong third quarter and year-to-date performance ahead of expectations. Organic sales growth was driven by our leading corn portfolio in North America and Latin America, combined with broad-based volume growth for Crop Protection.

接下來，我們來看第 10 張投影片，總結一下重點。首先，雖然今年還有一個重要的季度要過，但我們第三季和年初至今的業績都超出了預期。有機銷售成長主要得益於我們在北美和拉丁美洲領先的玉米產品組合，以及作物保護業務的全面銷售成長。

We delivered about $500 million in cost savings from lower Seed and Crop Protection raw material costs along with productivity gains. The combination of organic sales growth in both business units, $90 million in net royalty improvement and enhancements in product mix contributed to about 320 basis point margin expansion over prior year.

我們透過降低種子和作物保護原料成本以及提高生產效率，節省了約 5 億美元的成本。兩個業務部門的有機銷售成長、9,000萬美元的淨特許權使用費改善以及產品組合的改進，共同促成了利潤率比上年增長約320個基點。

Given our strong year-to-date performance and continued confidence in the fourth quarter, we raised our full year 2025 outlook across our key financial metrics. And finally, we remain on track for $1 billion of share repurchases in 2025. This, along with the dividend, translates to roughly $1.5 billion of cash returned to shareholders during 2025, a testimony to the strength of our balance sheet and cash flow outlook.

鑑於我們今年迄今的強勁業績以及對第四季度的持續信心，我們提高了 2025 年全年各項關鍵財務指標的預期。最後，我們仍有望在 2025 年實現 10 億美元的股票回購目標。加上股息，這意味著在 2025 年將向股東返還約 15 億美元的現金，證明了我們資產負債表的穩健性和現金流前景。

With that, let me turn it back to Kim.

那麼，現在就讓我把話題轉回給金。

Thanks, David. Now let's move on to your questions. I would like to remind you that our cautions on forward-looking statements and non-GAAP measures apply to both our prepared remarks and the following Q&A.

謝謝你，大衛。現在我們來回答您的問題。我想提醒各位，我們對前瞻性陳述和非GAAP指標的謹慎態度適用於我們準備好的發言稿和以下問答環節。

Operator, please provide the Q&A instructions.

操作員，請提供問答說明。

(Operator Instructions)

（操作說明）

Chris Parkinson, Wolfe Research.

克里斯帕金森，沃爾夫研究公司。

Chuck, I thought you guys have a pretty interesting setup between slides 25 and -- through 27. In terms of the why now and your preliminary remarks even on this call, what do you think is the most missed of what you've laid out? Is it the baseline CPC pipeline where you've got the new actives? Is it the balance between the plant health and biologicals?

查克，我覺得你們在第 25 到 27 張投影片之間的設定非常有趣。就「為什麼現在」以及您在本次通話中的初步發言而言，您認為您所闡述的內容中最缺少的是什麼？這是包含新活性成分的基準 CPC 流程嗎？這是植物健康和生物製劑之間的平衡嗎？

Is it the Spinosyn franchise as a percent of the insecticides, which has been pretty successful? I mean what would be the things that you would say like, Hey, this is what the independent company actually needs to focus on and further differentiate itself from both a growth and a margin perspective on a go-forward basis?

是指殺蟲劑中佔比相當高的棘黴素系列產品嗎？我的意思是，你會說，嘿，這才是獨立公司真正需要關注並在未來從成長和利潤率的角度進一步脫穎而出的方面是什麼？

Chris. So look, I think we've been pretty consistent with our messaging. If you look at the last five years, our Crop Protection business has been among the leaders. We're up about 200 basis points. I'm rounding, I think it's about 160 basis points, a little bit more after the third quarter now. And we have one of the best and the deepest R&D pipelines out there, and we put the number out actually at our last Investor Day of $9 billion. And then we just announced today some new products, some new actives coming into the marketplace.

克里斯。所以你看，我認為我們在訊息傳遞方面一直相當一致。回顧過去五年，我們的作物保護業務一直處於領先地位。我們上漲了約200個基點。我四捨五入了一下，我認為大約是 160 個基點，第三季之後可能會再多一點。我們擁有業內最優秀、最強大的研發管線之一，我們在上次投資者日上公佈的數字是 90 億美元。今天我們也宣布了一些新產品，一些新的活性成分即將上市。

And if you referenced Spinosyn. So Spinosyn is a franchise product for us. It's still growing. It's a microbial and it will get close to $900 million in revenue this year. And so we like that product a lot. But we also have these newer products that are really driving the landscape, I think, for our business.

如果你引用了斯皮諾辛的話。所以 Spinosyn 對我們來說是特許經營產品。它仍在增長。它是一種微生物，今年的收入將接近 9 億美元。所以，我們非常喜歡這款產品。但我認為，我們還有一些新產品正在真正推動我們業務的發展格局。

But look, I think that it's more of the same. Our strategy for Crop Protection was defined four years ago. And it was really simple, right? It was really to drive differentiated technology in the hands of farmers. And so we made decisions back then to reduce the more commoditized part of our portfolio. We exited some geographies. And I think the proof has been pretty evident of the results there.

但我覺得，情況還是一樣。我們的作物保護策略是在四年前製定的。真的很簡單，對吧？其真正目的是為了將差異化技術推廣到農民手中。因此，我們當時決定減少投資組合中商品化程度較高的部分。我們退出了一些地區。我認為那裡的結果已經非常明顯了。

As a separate independent company, so to get to your question, what we think will happen now is that there's simply going to be more doors that will open for this business. And the example that we gave even on my prepared remarks this morning is on Seed Applied Technology, which is a $0.5 billion business for Crop Protection. But we know that there will be some more seed companies that will do business with our Crop Protection -- independent Crop Protection business when they separate.

作為一家獨立的公司，所以回到您的問題，我們認為接下來會發生的情況是，這家公司將會有更多的機會和機會。今天早上我在準備的演講稿中舉的例子是種子應用技術，這是一個價值 5 億美元的作物保護產業。但我們知道，當種子企業分拆後，將會有更多的種子企業與我們的作物保護業務（即獨立的作物保護業務）開展業務。

The other thing I would say is that when you look at how we go to market with the different channels, we think that there'll be more retailers and co-ops around the world that will do more business. So the strategy for Crop Protection will not change. The formula is working, and we're winning when it comes to that formula. But I think there'll simply be more opportunities.

我想說的另一點是，當我們檢視我們如何利用不同的管道進入市場時，我們認為世界各地會有更多的零售商和合作社來開展更多業務。因此，作物保護策略不會改變。這個方法行之有效，而且我們在這個方法上取得了成功。但我認為機會只會更多。

And then when it comes to margin, as I mentioned, we're already up a couple of hundred basis points, and we've already committed in terms of 2027 to have that business at 20% EBITDA margins.

至於利潤率，正如我之前提到的，我們已經提高了幾百個基點，並且我們已經承諾到 2027 年將該業務的 EBITDA 利潤率提高到 20%。

And then just before we separate, there's going to be two Investor Days, one for each business. And I would expect at that meeting, we will give you kind of a margin trajectory post 2027 for each business, and we would expect continued growth. But don't forget, this is an innovation company, and we're also committed to keeping our R&D at that 6% to 7% of revenue because we think that, that has been a winning formula. So hopefully, that helps you.

然後，在我們分道揚鑣之前，將會舉辦兩場投資者日活動，每家公司一場。我預期在那次會議上，我們會向大家介紹各業務在 2027 年以後的利潤率走勢，我們預期利潤率將持續成長。但別忘了，這是一家創新公司，我們也致力於將研發投入保持在營收的 6% 到 7% 之間，因為我們認為這是一個成功的模式。希望這對你有幫助。

Vincent Andrews, Morgan Stanley.

文森安德魯斯，摩根士丹利。

Maybe just sticking on Crop Protection and ahead of the separation next year. Chuck, do you think there's any further pruning of the AI portfolio that you want to do? Or is there anything you want to maybe add into it? Whether it be on a wholly owned basis or a JV basis? Or just are you comfortable with everything that you have at this point or areas that you'd want to add to or subtract from?

或許可以先保留作物保護業務，為明年的分拆做準備。查克，你覺得人工智慧產品組合還需要進一步精簡嗎？或是您還有什麼想補充的嗎？是以全資所有還是合資形式？或者，你對目前擁有的一切都感到滿意嗎？或者你希望在哪些方面增加或減少？

Yes. So good morning Vincent. We like our portfolio a lot. We've invested in it heavily. I think if you look at what's been coming into the market with our new products, Rinskor, Arylex, Reklemel, these are all new actives within the last few years or so and then the new products that we're bringing into the market in late this decade, early next decade.

是的。早上好，文森。我們非常喜歡我們的投資組合。我們在這方面投入了大量資金。我認為，如果你看看我們近年來推出的新產品，例如 Rinskor、Arylex、Reklemel，這些都是近年來推出的新活性成分，再看看我們在本十年末、下個十年初即將推出的新產品。

But look, we're always looking at partnering with other companies whether that's full M&A or collaborations or R&D relationships in terms of joint ventures because I think that more is needed in the industry. And I've said that many times that this is an industry that needs to work together because, look, we've got real issues when it comes to disease and insect resistance in terms of what we're seeing around the world, and it is getting more expensive to bring new actives into the marketplace.

但是，我們一直在尋求與其他公司建立合作關係，無論是全面併購、合作還是合資企業等研發關係，因為我認為業界需要更多這樣的合作。我曾多次說過，這個行業需要團結協作，因為你看，就我們目前在世界各地看到的疾病和昆蟲抗藥性問題而言，我們確實面臨著嚴峻的挑戰，而且將新的活性成分引入市場的成本也越來越高。

So collaborations help everyone. They help each company and they actually help the farmer in terms of bringing affordable next-generation technology to the marketplace. So we would be open, but that's not because we don't like our portfolio. In fact, we think that our portfolio, as I've mentioned already this morning is quite strong.

所以合作對每個人都有好處。他們幫助每家公司，實際上也幫助農民將價格合理的下一代技術推向市場。所以我們會保持開放的態度，但這並不是因為我們不喜歡我們的投資組合。事實上，正如我今天早上已經提到的，我們認為我們的投資組合相當穩健。

Kevin McCarthy, Vertical Research.

Kevin McCarthy，Vertical Research。

Chuck, can you discuss how credit market conditions are evolving for growers in Latin America and what that means for Corteva in the industry? One of your peers highlighted this issue recently, and I'd love to get your perspective on it.

Chuck，你能談談拉丁美洲種植者的信貸市場狀況如何變化，以及這對科迪華公司在這個行業中的意義嗎？你的一位同事最近提到了這個問題，我很想聽聽你的看法。

Yes, this is David. I'll probably take that call. So when you look at overall, and I'll say, Latin America, primarily Brazil and Argentina, we are seeing an industry that's seeing higher cost to borrow and leverage customers, and there are increased bankruptcies. I think when you look at Corteva, we're managing this risk very well, and our losses have been very minimal.

是的，這是大衛。我大概會接那通電話。所以，從整體來看，尤其是在拉丁美洲，特別是巴西和阿根廷，我們看到該行業的借貸成本和客戶槓桿率都在上升，破產案例也在增加。我認為，從科迪華公司的情況來看，我們對這種風險的管理非常出色，我們的損失非常小。

So when you look at our past dues, for instance, this year versus last year, as a percent of AR, we're actually a couple of hundred basis points better than we were last year. And we've also spent a lot of time really de-risking our overall AR balance. So when you look at our exposure to folks like the national distributors is very minimal compared to perhaps the industry.

例如，看看我們過去的應收帳款，今年與去年相比，佔應收帳款的百分比，我們實際上比去年好了幾百個基點。我們也花了很多時間來真正降低整體應收帳款餘額的風險。因此，與整個行業相比，我們與全國分銷商等機構的接觸非常有限。

And then in addition, we're a pretty big user, and I think we have a very robust barter system, which helps us yet again reduce our exposure and about 40% of our total sales in Brazil is on the barter system. So I think when you look at the mitigation actions we've made, I think our exposure and our actual, so far, our performance has been very strong.

此外，我們還是相當大的用戶，而且我認為我們擁有非常強大的以物易物系統，這再次幫助我們降低了風險敞口，我們在巴西的總銷售額中約有 40% 是透過以物易物系統實現的。所以我認為，從我們採取的緩解措施來看，到目前為止，我們的風險敞口和實際表現都非常強勁。

Yes, Kevin, maybe if I could. So I think David hit these points, but it's worth saying again, I think our go-to-market strategy, especially in Latin America, as well as how we barter to risk manage. I think those are two differentiating factors for Corteva that we found as part of our overall risk management framework for that part of the world.

是的，凱文，也許吧，如果我能的話。所以我覺得大衛已經說到了這些點，但值得再次強調的是，我認為我們的市場進入策略，尤其是在拉丁美洲，以及我們如何透過以物易物來管理風險。我認為這是我們在該地區整體風險管理框架中發現的科迪華公司的兩個區別因素。

Joel Jackson, BMO Capital Markets.

Joel Jackson，BMO資本市場。

Maybe a two-parter. Have you had any time or ability to get or better take on what your dis-synergy cost -- dissynergies might be? I think you projected early on, maybe a sub-hundred million dollars dissynergies.

或許會分成​​兩部分。您是否有時間或能力去了解或更好地評估您的綜效不足成本—綜效不足可能反映在哪些方面？我認為你很早就預測到，可能損失不到一億美元。

And then have you thought about what you might do into the split? Might you look at what you may do for buybacks, would you continue the current rate in the first half of the year or into the split -- next year into the split? What are you thinking about that? Or do you want to keep the balance sheet sort of, I don't know, stable is the right way to say up until the split?

那麼，你有沒有想過分手後會怎麼做呢？您能否考慮一下股票回購方面的情況，您會在今年上半年還是明年（即股票分割之年）繼續保持目前的回購速度？你對此有何看法？或者，你們是想讓資產負債表保持某種程度的穩定，比如說，直到拆分前保持穩定？

Yeah. So this is David. Maybe I'll handle the second question first. When you look at our expectations for cash flow this year, we said $1.9 billion. I would say, as a lot of people know that it's really that fourth quarter that's critical to see how our full year ends up. And I would say that if we end up having a typical credit mix situation in this year vis-a-vis other years, we'll likely be north of that $1.9 billion number. So again, strong cash flow, strong position.

是的。這位是大衛。或許我可以先回答第二個問題。當我們展望今年的現金流時，我們預測為 19 億美元。我想說，正如許多人所知，第四季度對於決定我們全年的最終業績至關重要。我認為，如果今年的信貸組合情況與其他年份相比保持正常水平，那麼信貸規模很可能會超過 19 億美元。所以，強勁的現金流，強大的市場地位。

I think whenever it comes to any capital deployment items for 2026, we'll update everyone during our February call when we go into more detail around our guide for 2026. And I think it's reasonable to expect. We'll also want to make sure that we have the proper capital structures for both businesses as we go into the split.

我認為，對於 2026 年的任何資本部署項目，我們將在 2 月份的電話會議上向大家更新信息，屆時我們將更詳細地介紹我們的 2026 年指南。我認為這是合理的預期。在分拆過程中，我們還需要確保兩家公司都有適當的資本結構。

When you look at where we are regarding our separation, our separation management team is up and running. So we have numerous teams looking at every function. And again, looking at exactly detailed plans around what those dis-synergies might be, our initial estimates were, as you pointed out, $80 million to $100 million. And the teams are working very hard to make sure that we minimize that number.

從我們目前的分離工作進展來看，我們的分離管理團隊已經組成並開始運作。因此，我們有很多團隊在研究每個功能。再次仔細研究這些不協同效應的具體計劃，正如您所指出的，我們最初的估計是 8000 萬美元到 1 億美元。各團隊正在努力確保我們將這個數字降到最低。

So again, we'll be providing more details in February. And again, that's only because we'll have much more detail at that point in time to share with everyone.

所以，我們將在二月提供更多細節。再次強調，那隻是因為屆時我們將有更多細節可以與大家分享。

Yes. And then, Joel, just on the 2025 share buyback, we're committed to complete the $1 billion that we communicated earlier this year.

是的。還有，喬爾，關於 2025 年的股票回購計劃，我們承諾完成今年稍早宣布的 10 億美元回購目標。

David Begleiter, Deutsche Bank.

大衛‧貝格萊特，德意志銀行。

Chuck, just on biologicals, they will be a key part of the new CP story. Year-to-date, your sales are up about 7%. So why are they growing faster for you guys right now, do you think?

Chuck，就生物製劑而言，它們將是新CP故事的關鍵部分。今年迄今為止，您的銷售額成長了約 7%。那麼，你覺得為什麼它們現在在你們那裡成長得更快呢？

Yeah. So David, thanks for the question. First of all, I'd say we're very pleased with the growth and the progress in biologicals. When we first entered the market and when we did the M&A, we were in that neighborhood of about $400 million of revenue. And I think this year, it's going to be closer to $600 million of revenue. So very strong growth considering the overall market backdrop in crop protection.

是的。大衛，謝謝你的提問。首先，我想說我們對生物製劑領域的成長和進展非常滿意。當我們最初進入市場並進行併購時，我們的收入約為 4 億美元左右。我認為今年營收將接近 6 億美元。考慮到作物保護產業的整體市場背景，這樣的成長非常強勁。

The other thing that we're very pleased with is that some of these products now are moving nicely around the world. And we've just launched the biologicals business in a branded way in North America, and this spring was the first year that we've done that, and we're seeing really good success, I think, for US farmers trying this new technology. And then also progress with some new technology actually going into Brazil and in Europe.

另一件讓我們非常高興的事情是，這些產品中的一些現在在世界各地銷售情況良好。我們剛剛在北美以品牌形式推出了生物製品業務，今年春天是我們首次這樣做，我認為，對於嘗試這項新技術的美國農民來說，我們看到了非常好的成功。此外，一些新技術也正在進入巴西和歐洲市場，並且取得了進展。

So I think it takes a little bit of time to move these products around the world, and that probably is some of the reason why we've seen the growth rates the way they are. But overall, I'd say we're very pleased with our biologicals performance, what farmers are seeing on the field, and how we're moving these products around the world. So we would expect to see next year continued strong, high single, low double-digit growth rates in biologicals for the foreseeable future.

所以我認為將這些產品銷往世界各地需要一些時間，這也可能是我們看到目前成長率如此之高的部分原因。但總的來說，我對我們的生物製劑的性能、農民在田間看到的成果以及我們在世界各地推廣這些產品的方式都非常滿意。因此，我們預計在可預見的未來，生物製藥產業明年將繼續保持強勁的、較高的個位數或較低的兩位數成長率。

Josh Spector, UBS.

瑞銀集團的 Josh Spector。

I was wondering if you could just dial in a little bit on crop chems and pricing specifically. So you relative to your peers, it doesn't seem like you're changing your expectation on crop chem pricing in the second half. So I wanted to confirm that first.

我想請您具體談談農作物化學品及其價格方面的問題。所以相對於你的同行來說，你似乎並沒有改變對下半年農業化學品價格的期望。所以我首先想確認一下。

And then second, just thinking about your comments around '26, is it too early to call that we're going to see low single-digit growth in crop chemicals? Or why do you have the confidence to be doing that now?

其次，考慮到你對 2026 年的評論，現在就斷言農業化學品產業將實現個位數低成長是否為時過早？或者說，你為什麼現在有信心做這件事？

Okay. I'll have Robert talk about second half pricing, and then I can come back with 2026. Go ahead, Robert.

好的。我會請羅伯特談談下半年的定價，然後我再來談談 2026 年的情況。請繼續，羅伯特。

Yes, second half pricing is, as you've seen, year-to-date, where we are down low single digits. We expect we'll finish about there overall as we finish the year. But the big driver in the second half is Brazil. And actually, there's a improvement or good news story happening here because we expect Brazil to be mid-single digits in the rest of the year and that's in comparison to high single-digit loss last year. And so continuing to improve there, and we expect to continue to do that as it gets into '26.

是的，正如您所看到的，今年下半年的價格已經降至個位數低點。我們預計到年底時，整體成績會在這個範圍內。但下半程最大的驅動力是巴西。事實上，這裡有一個好轉或好消息，因為我們預計巴西隊今年剩餘比賽的失利場次將保持在個位數中段，而去年他們的失利場次則高達個位數。因此，我們將繼續改進這方面，並希望在 2026 年繼續這樣做。

By and large, the rest of the regions are running about flat. And so thinking about crop price into the future, we think these trends continue to move in that direction as we continue to get more and more new products into the channel, as Chuck talked about.

整體而言，其餘地區的地形都比較平坦。因此，展望未來農作物價格，我們認為隨著越來越多的新產品進入管道，這些趨勢將繼續朝著這個方向發展，正如 Chuck 所說的那樣。

And then just, Josh, on your question on '26. So yes, look, it is a little early. We need to finish 2025 in Latin America. But here's how we're viewing it. I guess it's an early look on Crop Protection globally. '25 we expect to be flat, which is better than the last few years. Robert already mentioned. So LatAm, Brazil specifically, probably down mid-single digit, but that's much better than being down high single digits the year before. And then next year, as we move into 2026, we expect Brazil still to be down, but low single digits. So the trend line is improving.

然後，Josh，關於你提出的 26 號問題。所以，是的，現在確實有點早。我們需要在拉丁美洲完成2025年的目標。但我們是這樣看待這個問題的。我想這算是對全球作物保護市場的初步展望。我們預計2025年市場將保持平穩，這比過去幾年要好。羅伯特已經提到過了。所以拉丁美洲，特別是巴西，可能會下降個位數中段，但這比前一年下降個位數高段好得多。然後，到了 2026 年，我們預計巴西的感染率仍將下降，但降幅將控制在個位數。所以趨勢線正在改善。

Overall, though, for the Crop Protection market for 2026, we think it's going to be better than 2025, and it's really going to be driven by volume growth with pricing stabilizing everywhere around the world, perhaps except for Brazil, which we've already talked about.

不過總的來說，我們認為 2026 年的作物保護市場將比 2025 年更好，這主要得益於銷售增長，而全球各地的價格將趨於穩定，也許巴西除外，我們已經討論過這個問題了。

So what gives us confidence? It's a really good question. And the way I think about this is, look, on-farm applications around the world are strong. We can see it. We can see the product coming out of the channel consistently around the world. And channel inventory is more or less are in healthy normal ranges. And then China. So China from a generic or commoditized product perspective, prices have been stable now for some time. So there is stability in the crop protection industry.

那麼，是什麼讓我們充滿信心呢？這確實是個好問題。我的看法是，你看，世界各地的農場應用都很強。我們能看到。我們可以看到該產品持續不斷地從世界各地的管道輸出。渠道庫存基本上處於正常健康範圍。然後是中國。因此，從通用或商品化產品的角度來看，中國的價格已經穩定了一段時間。因此，作物保護產業保持穩定。

The area that gives us less confidence, we've already called it out, is Brazil, in Brazil pricing. Volume has been pretty healthy because there's been new acreage put into production and farmers have a need for the product, and they're using it. We just need to see the trajectory on pricing sort of stabilize and hopefully return to some sort of positive growth in the future.

我們之前已經指出，讓我們信心不足的領域是巴西，是巴西的定價。由於新增耕地投入生產，農民對該產品有需求，並且正在使用，因此產量一直相當健康。我們只需要看到價格走勢趨於穩定，並希望未來能恢復某種程度的正成長。

So when we put it all together, I think right now, it's a reasonable assumption to say that 2026, the global crop protection industry will return to, we'll call it, low single-digit growth.

所以綜合所有因素來看，我認為現在可以合理地假設，到 2026 年，全球作物保護產業將恢復到我們所謂的低個位數成長。

Jeff Zekauskas, JPMorgan.

Jeff Zekauskas，摩根大通。

Diamide pricing is falling and your insecticide pricing seems to be moving lower. I'm wondering about how do you see the effect of price pressure in chemicals like Rynaxypyr affecting your Spinosyns. And how do you see that price pressure affecting your volumes? Did Spinosyns grow this year in volume terms? And is that the area where you're most worried about price pressure next year in crop chemicals?

二醯胺類殺蟲劑價格正在下跌，你們的殺蟲劑價格似乎也走低。我想知道您如何看待像 Rynaxypyr 這樣的化學品的價格壓力對您的 Spinosyns 的影響。您認為價格壓力會對銷售產生什麼樣的影響？今年多粘菌素的銷售有成長嗎？您最擔心明年農業化學品價格壓力的領域是這個嗎？

Yes. So maybe Robert can talk about volume and then I can come back and give you some thoughts on sort of the pricing dynamics. So go ahead, Robert.

是的。所以或許羅伯特可以先談談銷量，然後我再回來談談價格動態方面的想法。羅伯特，請繼續。

Jeff, good question in relation to how our portfolio fits into the overall market and specifically insecticides. We've had some setbacks this year around weather in some areas and our portfolio is not immune to pricing pressures, albeit it's a premium products. And when you think about the generics, right, they set the floor. And so we do feel pricing pressures, but our volumes continue to grow. And some really good things happening in this area that I'll call your attention to and you brought up Spinosyns.

Jeff，你問的這個問題很好，它涉及到我們的產品組合如何融入整體市場，特別是殺蟲劑市場。今年，由於一些地區的天氣原因，我們遭遇了一些挫折，儘管我們的產品是高端產品，但我們無法避免價格壓力。想想仿製藥，它們就設定了底線。因此，我們確實感受到了價格壓力，但我們的銷售仍在持續成長。在這個領域，有一些非常好的事情正在發生，我想提請大家注意，你也提到了棘黴素。

We expect Spinosyns to finish up near $900 million for a single molecule this year. That's a 5% organic growth in a market that's flat. And so we continue to see good things out of our Spinosyns. Specifically for Spinosyns versus some of the other generics is, it's a rotation partner. Resistance builds quickly in some of these areas. And so the demand for Spinosyns, we expect to continue because of that.

我們預計今年 Spinosyns 單一分子的銷售額將接近 9 億美元。在市場整體低迷的情況下，這實現了 5% 的有機成長。因此，我們繼續從我們的棘皮動物中看到好的結果。具體來說，Spinosyns 與其他一些仿製藥的區別在於，它是一個輪換用藥夥伴。在某些地區，阻力會迅速形成。因此，我們預期對多巴胺激動劑的需求將會持續下去。

A few other things happened in this area that I just should bring your attention to. New products at Pyraxalt, Reklemel, these things are up a 30% combined on a year-over-year basis year-to-date. And we expect these things to continue from a growth in our insecticide portfolio, and Spinosyns will lead the way.

這個地區還發生了一些其他的事情，我應該要提一下。Pyraxalt 和 Reklemel 的新產品，今年迄今為止，這些產品的銷售額合計比去年同期成長了 30%。我們預計隨著殺蟲劑產品組合的成長，這些趨勢將會持續下去，而多殺菌素將引領這一趨勢。

Yes. Jeff, just a few more comments. So I think Robert covered it well. If you think about what happens on the field, the diamides and the Spinosyns are actually complementary. Farmers usually rotate them because of insect resistance issues. So we don't really think that there are competitive products. Now Robert said, our Spinosyns business is growing, and we like the trajectory. But from a pricing perspective, the floor is set by more commoditized insecticides. So we're not immune to that dynamic.

是的。傑夫，我還有幾點要補充。所以我覺得羅伯特解釋得很好。如果你想想場上發生的事情，二醯胺和棘黴素其實是互補的。由於蟲害抗藥性問題，農民通常會輪作這些作物。所以我們認為目前還沒有真正意義上的競爭產品。羅伯特說，我們的 Spinosyns 業務正在成長，我們對這種發展趨勢感到滿意。但從定價的角度來看，價格底線是由商品化程度較高的殺蟲劑決定的。所以我們也無法免受這種動態的影響。

But the one interesting thing about Spinosyns to just differentiate it from some others, this is a microbial. It's not chemical. So what that means is it's a living organism, and it's very difficult to replicate. In fact, if you don't have the strain, you would have to go find the strain inside of nature, and it won't have the same efficacy because we've been engineering that microbial for almost 20 years.

但棘黴素與其他一些病原體不同的地方在於，它是一種微生物。它不是化學物質。這意味著它是一種活的有機體，而且很難複製。事實上，如果沒有這種菌株，你必須去自然界中尋找這種菌株，但它不會有同樣的效果，因為我們已經對這種微生物進行了近 20 年的改造。

So even though that this product family has been off patent, we've been able to command a premium into the marketplace because it's a microbial that's used in a rotational application usually for farmers around the world. So hopefully, that helps.

因此，即使該產品系列的專利已經過期，我們仍然能夠在市場上獲得溢價，因為它是一種微生物，通常用於世界各地農民的輪作應用中。希望這能有所幫助。

Laurence Alexander, Jefferies.

勞倫斯‧亞歷山大，傑富瑞集團。

This is Dan Rizzo, on for Laurence. You mentioned that free cash flow is being driven by earnings growth. I was just -- going to ask how we should think about working capital and particularly as maybe a percent of sales over the long term kind of on an annual basis?

這裡是丹·里佐，代勞倫斯發言。您提到自由現金流是由獲利成長所驅動的。我只是想問我們應該如何看待營運資本，特別是從長遠來看，以年度銷售額的百分比來衡量營運資本？

Yes, it's a good question. And when you look at so far, our performance this year, you will see that a lot of our year-over-year improvement has been driven by working capital. You'll see a little bit more increase in receivables, obviously, due to our volume and sales increases and then the little decline in inventory. Typically, in Q4, we will end up building some inventory, and we expect that to be again this year. And that's why we're in that $1.9 billion, perhaps north of that for our free cash flow.

是的，這是個好問題。從我們今年迄今為止的業績來看，你會發現我們同比業績的很大一部分提升是由營運資本推動的。由於銷量和銷售額的成長以及庫存的略微下降，應收帳款顯然會略有增加。通常情況下，在第四季我們會建立一些庫存，我們預計今年也會如此。這就是為什麼我們的自由現金流達到 19 億美元，甚至可能更高。

When you look at the overall working capital as a percentage of sales, I would say that if you take probably an average over the last couple of years is a pretty typical area for us to be. Maybe if you go back further than that, it isn't. So I would say if you take the last couple of years, the working capital sales is a good indication of what our plans will be going forward.

如果以銷售額的百分比來衡量整體營運資本，我認為過去幾年的平均水平對我們來說是一個相當典型的水平。也許如果追溯到更久遠的過去，情況就並非如此了。所以我覺得，如果回顧過去幾年，營運資金銷售額可以很好地反映我們未來的計畫。

Duffy Fischer, Goldman Sachs.

達菲費雪，高盛集團。

Question on seeds. Now that we're kind of through the season, I was hoping you could give me a view on how you did market share-wise in the northern hemisphere on the big crops: corn, soy, cotton, canola. And then I thought I heard you make a comment about Conkesta in Latin America, but I missed that. How fast is that growing? Or how big do you believe that will be next year?

關於種子的問題。現在賽季差不多結束了，我希望您能就您在北半球主要農作物（玉米、大豆、棉花、油菜）的市場份額情況談談您的看法。然後我好像聽到你提到了拉丁美洲的 Conkesta，但我錯過了。這個成長速度有多快？或者，你認為明年會有多大？

Go ahead, Judd.

請繼續，賈德。

Yes. Thanks, Duffy. So from a market share perspective, we do feel very confident that we were able to pick up some share. At the same time, we held price mainly through mix here in corn, did that across brands and feel very good about our product performance going into '26.

是的。謝謝你，達菲。因此，從市場份額的角度來看，我們非常有信心我們已經獲得了一些市場份額。同時，我們主要透過玉米產品組合來維持價格，我們在各個品牌中都做到了這一點，我們對2026年的產品表現感到非常滿意。

On soy, we picked up even more share than we believe we did in corn. We need to finalize all this yet with acres. But directionally, we're very confident that we've had a strong year. And it's really based on germplasm and the performance of our products.

在大豆方面，我們獲得的市場份額甚至比我們認為在玉米方面獲得的份額還要多。我們還需要最終確定所有土地面積。但從整體方向來看，我們非常有信心，我們今年取得了強勁的成績。這確實取決於種質資源和我們產品的性能。

Now in terms of Conkesta, as we think about where we're at with that today in 2026 -- or 2025, 8% to 10% of the market; 2026, we're going to get we're going to get into double digits; and as we get to 2030, we could be a third of the market in Brazil with E3 and Conkesta. So like the growth, like what the next few years looks like in that space.

現在就 Conkesta 而言，當我們思考它在 2026 年（或 2025 年）的市場份額時，預計會達到 8% 到 10%；2026 年，我們將達到兩位數；到 2030 年，憑藉 E3 和 Conkesta，我們可能會佔據巴西三分之一的市場份額。所以，例如成長前景，例如未來幾年這個領域的發展趨勢。

Arun Viswanathan, RBC Capital Markets.

Arun Viswanathan，加拿大皇家銀行資本市場。

I guess just focusing on the margins. It looks like you've had very strong performance. When you started this journey, you were in the mid-teens across both businesses and then we hit the high teens and low 20%s and now you're kind of mid-20s across the whole company with up to 30% in Seed.

我想應該只關注邊緣部分。看來你表現非常出色。當你開始這段旅程時，兩家公司的投資比例都在十幾個百分點左右，然後我們達到了十幾個百分點到二十個百分點左右，現在整個公司的投資比例都在二十幾個百分點左右，種子輪的投資比例高達 30%。

So I guess, do you see continued margin growth as you move into '26? And what will be driving that? Is it kind of across the board price volume and cost gains? Or would it be mostly driven by cost? And maybe you can also weave in if there's any royalty considerations we should take in there?

所以我想問，您認為進入2026年後，利潤率會繼續成長嗎？而推動這趨勢的因素又是什麼呢？價格、銷售量和成本方面是否有全面提升？或主要驅動因素是成本？或許你還可以補充一下，我們是否需要考慮版稅方面的問題？

Yes. Thank you. Yes, look, we're very proud of the margin journey. It's been a company-wide effort and initiative for several years. And just to get to the point of your question, we do think that the journey will continue. In fact, we've set public targets out to 2027 of about 24% at the midpoint. So we still got some room to go.

是的。謝謝。是的，我們為利潤率的提升感到非常自豪。這是公司多年來一直推行的一項全公司範圍的努力和舉措。至於你問題的關鍵，我們認為這段旅程將會繼續下去。事實上，我們已經設定了 2027 年的公開目標，中位數為 24% 左右。所以我們還有很長的路要走。

We've been on that trajectory of, I'll say, at 100 to 150 basis points per year, and we think that's as good of approximation as we can give you. It will be across both Seed and CP. And the drivers are sort of spread. Our new products, whether it's new seed hybrid and varieties or if it's new products in Crop Protection will be a major driver.

我們一直保持著每年 100 到 150 個基點的波動幅度，我們認為這是我們能給出的最準確的估計了。它將同時適用於種子伺服器和CP伺服器。而且司機分佈比較分散。我們的新產品，無論是新的種子雜交品種，還是作物保護的新產品，都將是主要的驅動力。

I'd say seed out-licensing as well, very high-margin opportunity in business. And as we move towards royalty neutrality and then royalty income post 2028, we think that will be a major contributor to our margins over time.

我認為種子對外授權也是一個不錯的選擇，這是一個利潤非常高的商業機會。隨著我們逐步實現版稅中立，並在 2028 年後實現版稅收入，我們認為這將長期成為我們利潤率的主要貢獻者。

And then cost and productivity. When you think about -- when we laid out our targets for 2027 of $1 billion of EBITDA growth in three years, about $700 million with cost productivity and deflation, and we're trending a little better than that, and we probably will do better than the $700 million on a net basis. So I think that, that is also a major focus for the company. And one of the core competencies that I think we have as an organization is to always strive for improved cost efficiencies across the company.

然後是成本和生產力。想想看——當我們制定了到 2027 年實現 10 億美元 EBITDA 成長的目標時，考慮到成本、生產力和通貨緊縮，大約是 7 億美元，而我們目前的趨勢比這略好一些，而且我們最終的淨利潤可能會超過 7 億美元。所以我認為這也是公司關注的重點之一。我認為我們公司的核心競爭力之一就是始終致力於提高公司整體的成本效益。

Aleksey Yefremov of KeyBanc.

KeyBanc公司的Aleksey Yefremov。

So you're showing in your CP business, 65% of the portfolio is differentiated. Could you talk about the remaining 35%? How are these products competitively positioned in this possibly more competitive world?

所以，在你的CP業務中，65%的產品組合都是差異化的。能談談剩下的35%嗎？在競爭可能更加激烈的市場環境下，這些產品的市場定位如何？

Yes, Aleksey, thanks for the question. The portfolio, as you know, we started in 2022, beginning to work on getting it to where we are today with about two-thirds of it differentiated. And that does drive a premium in the market, and it's higher technology that's adding value to the farmers.

是的，阿列克謝，謝謝你的提問。如您所知，我們從 2022 年開始建立投資組合，並逐步發展到今天的規模，其中約有三分之二是差異化產品。這確實推高了市場上的溢價，而正是更高的技術為農民增加了價值。

The balance of that is what we call not differentiated, but that doesn't mean it's commodity generic. It is still a formulated product that is normally in the price ladder, brand ladder type of setup to where it's sometimes a lower price point, not the premium product, but it still is bringing value on the farm.

剩下的部分我們稱之為無差異化，但這並不意味著它是普通的商品。它仍然是一種配方產品，通常處於價格階梯、品牌階梯式的設定中，有時價格較低，不是高端產品，但它仍然能為農場帶來價值。

So our overall scheme for our portfolio and how we shape it is we don't intend to play in the commodity generic type molecules. We want to play in that upper end because as an innovation company, that's how we fit into this overall agricultural economy. So I'll leave it there. I hope that helps a little bit.

因此，我們對投資組合的總體規劃以及我們建立投資組合的方式是，我們不打算涉足大宗通用分子領域。我們希望在高端市場佔有一席之地，因為身為一家創新公司，這才是我們融入整個農業經濟的方式。我就說到這兒吧。希望這能有所幫助。

Kristen Owen, Oppenheimer.

克里斯汀歐文，奧本海默。

Nice dovetail into a more strategic question that I wanted to ask you. Just ahead of the split next year, I did want to talk about maybe some of the digital assets that you've compiled over the last several years, whether it's the things that you've built yourself like CARL or the ones that you've acquired and built on like the granular assets.

這正好引出了我想問你的一個更具策略性的問題。在明年分家之前，我想談談您在過去幾年積累的一些數位資產，無論是您自己開發的 CARL，還是您收購並在此基礎上開發的 granular assets。

How integrated are those platforms when we think about seed versus CP? And are there investments that you need to make in your digital infrastructure over the coming six to nine months to support those stand-alone businesses?

當我們考慮種子輪和CP輪時，這些平台的整合程度如何？為了支持這些獨立業務，您在未來六到九個月內是否需要對您的數位基礎設施進行投資？

Yeah. Thanks for the question, Kristen. So yes, this is a very good focus area for us. Our digital support systems are integrated. And so we are going to have to -- and it's part of the $80 million to $100 million of dis-synergies that David has already called out, but a percentage of that will be to separate those businesses to ensure -- to separate that business to ensure that both Seed and CP have the AI and the digital support that they need.

是的。謝謝你的提問，克里斯汀。所以，是的，這確實是我們非常重視的領域。我們的數位化支援系統已實現一體化。因此，我們將不得不——這是大衛已經指出的 8000 萬至 1 億美元協同效應損失的一部分，但其中一部分將用於拆分這些業務，以確保——拆分這些業務，以確保 Seed 和 CP 都擁有他們需要的 AI 和數位支援。

Because I think one of the major reasons we've been able to drive productivity and cost reduction as well as the speed of innovation and the high return on investment we have with our R&D dollars is because we've made strategic investments in this area, and we don't want to lose that capability.

我認為，我們之所以能夠提高生產效率、降低成本、加快創新速度，並在研發投入方面獲得高投資報酬率，主要原因之一就是我們在這個領域進行了策略性投資，我們不想失去這種能力。

So right now, inside of Corteva, that is in one group, and we'll have to separate that quite carefully. We're confident we've already done a lot of work in this area, and it is included in the $80 million to $100 million of dis-synergies, but it will be an area that we'll have to make sure that before we launch both companies, that they have the digital assets that they need to continue with their strategic journeys that they're both on.

所以目前在科迪華內部，這屬於一個集團，我們需要非常仔細地將其分開。我們有信心，我們已經在這個領域做了很多工作，這部分工作也包含在 8,000 萬至 1 億美元的綜效損失中。但是，在兩家公司正式成立之前，我們必須確保它們擁有繼續推動各自策略發展所需的數位資產。

Matthew DeYoe, Bank of America.

馬修‧德約，美國銀行。

Two ones for me, I guess. First on CP. Even if we assume pretty chunky margins for price/mix, it seems like incremental margins on volumes for chems were really strong. I guess why may that -- I guess, why would that be?

我想我得吃兩份。CP上的第一篇。即使我們假設價格/組合利潤率相當可觀，化學品銷售帶來的增量利潤率似乎也非常強勁。我猜想，為什麼會這樣呢？

And then I have a feeling -- I know how you're going to answer this, Chuck. But if we look like, I don't know, call it, 15 years down the road for seeds, given the lower barriers to entry with gene editing, is it possible that the seed company business model just looks over time more similar to like a CPG company like L'Oreal or Pepsi that becomes an acquirer and marketer of smaller technology brands? And like how do you -- or how does that kind of jive with R&D and how you think about budgeting, but I'll leave it there?

然後我有一種感覺——我知道你會怎麼回答這個問題，查克。但是，如果我們展望一下，比如說，15 年後的種子行業，考慮到基因編輯降低了准入門檻，種子企業的商業模式是否有可能隨著時間的推移，變得越來越像歐萊雅或百事可樂這樣的消費品公司，成為小型科技品牌的收購者和營銷者？那麼，你如何看待——或者說，這與研發以及你對預算的看法如何契合呢？我就說到這裡吧？

Yes. Matt, so we only caught -- sorry, the second part of your question on gene editing, which I can certainly answer. Was there a CP question before that?

是的。馬特，所以我們只回答了——抱歉，你關於基因編輯問題的第二部分，這部分我當然可以回答。之前有關於CP的問題嗎？

Yes. I was just looking at the incremental margins in -- for volumes because obviously, CP EBITDA was up a lot and price/mix was a bit of a headwind, but it seems like the volume incrementals are big?

是的。我只是在查看銷售帶來的增量利潤率，因為很明顯，CP 的 EBITDA 增長了很多，價格/產品組合方面存在一些不利因素，但看起來銷量帶來的增量利潤率很高？

So let me take the gene editing question, I'll have Robert deal with the incremental margin volume question. So look, looking 15 years out, for me, is very exciting when it comes to this technology. In fact, we put a slide in the appendix of our first gene-edited corn hybrid, which we call a disease super locus on slide 29. I'd encourage you all to have a look at it. This is just scratching the surface, I think, on the full power of the technology.

那麼，基因編輯的問題就交給我回答，增量邊際體積的問題就交給羅伯特來處理。所以，展望未來 15 年，對我來說，這項技術的發展令人非常興奮。事實上，我們在第一個基因編輯玉米雜交品種的附錄中放置了一張幻燈片，我們稱之為疾病超級位點，位於第 29 張幻燈片上。我建議大家都去看一下。我認為這只是這項技術全部威力的冰山一角。

But we do not think that it will become a disruptive technology beyond sort of what can be done inside of the lab. What do I mean by that? If you look at what is going to be needed to be successful, the gene editing capability, we believe, will be readily available. In fact, we license our gene editing tools to many companies around the world, and we encourage that kind of competition. It is important from an innovation perspective.

但我們認為它不會成為一種顛覆性技術，其應用範圍僅限於實驗室內部。我這話是什麼意思？如果看看成功所需的條件，我們相信基因編輯技術將很容易獲得。事實上，我們向世界各地的許多公司授權使用我們的基因編輯工具，我們鼓勵這種競爭。從創新角度來看，這一點很重要。

I think where the differentiation will be will be on the germplasm because you need something great to edit. And so the capability to gene edit plus the germplasm, plus if you think about how we go to market around the world, we have to be able to produce seed in every region around the planet where we're going to sell. And that capability is really expensive and very difficult.

我認為真正的區別在於種質資源，因為你需要一些優秀的種質資源來進行編輯。因此，基因編輯能力加上種原，再加上我們在全球市場銷售產品的方式，我們必須能夠在世界各地銷售產品的每個地區生產種子。而且這種能力非常昂貴，也很難實現。

And so when you start thinking about this, where I think that this leads is that there could be great new technology that's being invented, and we really hope that there is. But then what it will lead to is probably more partnerships because of access to germplasm and then just the sheer supply chain production capability that's going to be required.

所以當你開始思考這個問題時，我認為這會引向一個方向：可能會有偉大的新技術被發明出來，我們真心希望如此。但隨之而來的可能是更多的合作關係，因為可以獲得種質資源，也需要強大的供應鏈生產能力。

But it is going to be, I think, a very powerful technology in the future. And I think it will transform how farmers actually farm and what we're able to do to help farmers. So that's the question on gene editing.

但我認為，它在未來將會是一項非常強大的技術。我認為這將改變農民實際的耕作方式以及我們能夠為農民提供的幫助。這就是關於基因編輯的問題。

Maybe Robert, on incremental margin volume, if you can answer that.

羅伯特，或許你可以回答一下關於增量利潤率的問題。

Yes, thanks. Our journey, as Chuck stated earlier, started back in 2022 when we began to change our strategy and focusing in on profitability and overall financial health of the CP business. And we've had some great inroads there of improving the financial health of this business to where it is today. And that was on the backs of a couple of areas.

好的，謝謝。正如 Chuck 之前所說，我們的旅程始於 2022 年，當時我們開始改變策略，專注於提高 CP 業務的獲利能力和整體財務健康狀況。我們在改善這家企業的財務狀況方面取得了巨大進展，才使其達到今天的水平。而這發生在幾個地區之後。

One, you touched on it of mix, price volume trade-offs and what that -- how that impacts us. And I'll draw your attention to two areas there that we've talked about quite extensively around our growth levers, but let me go into how that impacts margin.

第一，你談到了產品組合、價格和銷售之間的權衡，以及這對我們的影響。我將重點介紹我們圍繞成長槓桿已經深入討論過的兩個方面，但讓我來談談它們如何影響利潤率。

Our new products and our biologicals portfolios is two areas that typically have a 10% to 15% margin advantage over your traditional portfolio. And these are areas that are growing faster than the rest of our business. They're both in the double-digit growth year-to-date. And as Chuck talked earlier about biologicals into the future, we're excited about the continued growth there.

我們的新產品和生物製品組合這兩個領域通常比您的傳統產品組合具有 10% 到 15% 的利潤優勢。而且這些領域的成長速度比我們其他業務領域更快。今年迄今為止，它們的成長率均達到兩位數。正如 Chuck 之前談到的生物製劑的未來發展，我們對該領域的持續成長感到興奮。

And then our new products that we've recently put into the market, Rinskor and Arylex are growing at a rapid rate. These two, just to put in perspective, will be larger than Enlist. In 2027, we expect the two combined to be about $1 billion in revenue, and that's not their top side. So when you look at our mix of the portfolio, that will continue to help our margins because of this differentiation that we supply and that price for value that we're adding to that farmer.

此外，我們最近推向市場的新產品 Rinskor 和 Arylex 也正在快速成長。為了讓大家有個概念，這兩個專案規模都會比 Enlist 大。我們預計到 2027 年，這兩家公司的總收入將達到約 10 億美元，但這還不是它們的最高收入。因此，從我們的產品組合來看，由於我們提供的差異化產品以及我們為農民增加的價值，這將繼續幫助我們提高利潤率。

The second thing around it is just the great work, the operations teams and the network optimization that has been taking place when we talk about our footprint optimization, year-to-date, we'll have delivered about $200 million in productivity for this year alone. And that work has a work plan that will carry us out past 2027, and we are on track to deliver the commitments that we gave Investor Day for the cost savings as well.

第二點是營運團隊和網路優化團隊所做的出色工作，就我們今年的業務範圍優化而言，到目前為止，我們已經實現了約 2 億美元的生產力提升。這項工作制定了工作計劃，將持續到 2027 年以後，我們也正按計劃實現我們在投資者日上做出的成本節約承諾。

So you put those two together and those compound to get to the bottom line of impacting that margin and continue to grow our EBITDA, and we're excited about the future of it.

所以，把這兩件事結合起來，就能最終影響利潤率，並持續成長我們的 EBITDA，我們對未來充滿信心。

Patrick Cunningham, Citi.

派崔克‧坎寧安，花旗銀行。

Could you provide an update on hybrid wheat or double cropping systems, whether it's progress in commercialization, expanded pilot programs or any milestones that we should be modeling over the next 1.5 years?

能否介紹一下雜交小麥或雙季種植系統的最新進展，例如商業化進展、試點計畫擴展，或未來 1.5 年內我們應該關注的任何里程碑？

Yes. So as you know, we're pretty excited about our hybrid wheat technology. And the way I think about this is this could certainly be the third leg to our stool. We're already market leaders in corn and soybeans. And if you add wheat over the next decade or so, it's a pretty powerful combination. We have said that we believe this is a $1 billion revenue opportunity in the next decade.

是的。如您所知，我們對我們的雜交小麥技術感到非常興奮。我的想法是，這完全可以成為我們凳子的第三條腿。我們在玉米和大豆領域已經是市場領導者。如果在接下來的十年左右時間裡加入小麥，那將是一個非常強大的組合。我們曾表示，我們相信這將在未來十年帶來10億美元的收入機會。

So this is kind of the year three of our plant trials. I'd say all systems go for a launch in 2027. We're seeing consistently a 10% to 15% yield improvement, which will be really exciting for farmers. And don't forget that the first hybrids we put into the market will probably be the worst ones we put into the market because they're coming first into the pipeline.

所以今年算是我們植物試驗的第三年了。我認為一切就緒，將於 2027 年發射。我們看到產量持續提高 10% 到 15%，這對農民來說真是個令人振奮的消息。別忘了，我們推向市場的第一批混合動力車很可能是最糟糕的，因為它們是第一批進入生產線的。

So what I'd say is that there'll be, I think, small amounts of availability in 2027 ramping up. But as we get out to the next -- the middle of next decade, we think that this will have a similar margin profile as corn and soybeans for us. So pretty exciting for us, a yield improvement for farmers overall. And this is an important crop, right? It's the largest row crop in the world, and it still accounts for 20% of the calories we consume. So very important for society when it comes to food security.

所以我認為，到 2027 年，供應量會從小幅增加逐漸增加。但到了下一個十年中期，我們認為它的利潤率將與玉米和大豆類似。這對我們來說非常令人興奮，農民的整體產量將會提高。而且這是一種重要的農作物，對吧？它是世界上種植面積最大的農作物，至今仍占我們攝取卡路里的 20%。因此，這對社會糧食安全而言非常重要。

Edlain Rodriguez, Mizuho.

埃德蘭·羅德里格斯，瑞穗。

Chuck, so as farmers are likely to shift some acreage from corn to soy, can you please remind us of the potential impact on Corteva? And do you feel that you're well positioned to easily offset any headwind from there?

查克，鑑於農民可能會將部分耕地從玉米轉向大豆，你能否提醒我們這對科迪華公司可能產生的影響？你覺得目前所處的位置是否足以輕鬆應付任何不利因素？

Yeah. Sure, Edlain. So the sensitivity that we've normally given is about $10 million of EBITDA for every 1 million acres that shifts from corn to soybeans. It's included in our thinking of the $4.1 billion. It's a little too early for us to say exactly how many acres are going to shift because we've got lots of time here for farmers to make that choice.

是的。當然可以，艾德蘭。因此，我們通常給出的敏感度是，每100萬英畝土地從玉米轉向大豆，就會造成約1000萬美元的EBITDA損失。這筆錢包含在我們估算的 41 億美元之中。現在說究竟有多少英畝土地會發生轉移還為時過早，因為農民們還有充足的時間做出選擇。

But it would be logical to assume that from the 98-or-so million acres of corn, we're going to see less than that in 2026, assuming the trade routes and the export markets still stay open. So there's still some uncertainty there. But overall, what we've given you in terms of our first look when it comes to 2026 EBITDA, that's all factored in, but it's about $10 million of EBITDA for every 1 million acre shift.

但可以合理推斷，在貿易路線和出口市場保持開放的情況下，到 2026 年，大約 9,800 萬英畝的玉米產量將會低於這個數字。所以這方面仍然存在一些不確定性。但總的來說，就我們目前對 2026 年 EBITDA 的初步展望而言，所有因素都已考慮在內，每 100 萬英畝土地的轉移大約可以帶來 1000 萬美元的 EBITDA。

Ben Theurer, Barclays.

本·圖雷爾，巴克萊銀行。

Just coming back to the spin. And obviously, we've talked about the seed business and the opportunities from growing through gene editing and M&A, et cetera. But when we look at the Crop Protection business, with biologicals within that segment, how would you see the opportunities and the likelihood of you being as well active here on potentially M&A to add to the portfolio without just sticking to the internal pipeline?

回到旋轉的話題。顯然，我們也討論過種子業務，以及透過基因編輯和併購等方式成長的機會。但是，當我們審視作物保護業務，特別是其中的生物製品時，您如何看待該領域的機遇，以及您是否會積極參與潛在的併購活動，以擴充產品組合，而不僅僅是依靠內部研發？

Yes. Very good question. So this is an area where I think we have been active over the last couple of years in terms of M&A. The biologicals industry just as a whole is more fragmented, and there are smaller companies doing really great things. It could be that we would get more active from an M&A perspective and just outright acquire them or it could be either commercial or R&D collaborations because we already do a lot of that through our R&D and our commercial organization.

是的。問得好。所以，我認為在過去幾年裡，我們在併購方面一直很活躍。整個生物製品產業更加分散，有許多規模較小的公司在做著非常了不起的事情。我們可能會在併購方面更加積極主動，直接收購他們；或者也可能是開展商業或研發合作，因為我們已經透過我們的研發和商業機構做了很多這方面的工作。

So all of those options are on the table. I would suspect that as the company separates, they will even be more focused on growing their biologicals portfolio because it's been such an important part of that business that I think you're going to see all of these things kind of accelerate over time, M&A and technological and commercial partnerships.

所以所有這些選項都在考慮範圍內。我懷疑隨著公司分拆，他們會更加專注於發展生物製劑產品組合，因為這一直是該公司業務的重要組成部分，我認為你會看到所有這些事情隨著時間的推移而加速發展，包括併購、技術和商業合作。

There are no further questions at this time. And with that, I will turn the call back to Kim Booth for closing remarks. Please go ahead.

目前沒有其他問題了。接下來，我將把電話轉回給金·布斯，請她作總結發言。請繼續。

Great. Thanks for joining and for your interest in Corteva, and we hope you have a safe and wonderful day.

偉大的。感謝您的參與和對科迪華的關注，祝您度過安全美好的一天。

Ladies and gentlemen, this concludes today's call. We thank you for participating. You may now disconnect your lines.

女士們、先生們，今天的電話會議到此結束。感謝您的參與。現在您可以斷開線路了。

Portions of this transcript marked (technical difficulty) indicate audio problems. The missing text will be supplied if a replay becomes available.

本文字稿中標示（技術難題）的部分錶示有音訊問題。如果有重播視頻，我們會補充缺少的文本。