Corteva Inc (CTVA) 2024 Q3 法說會逐字稿

Thank you for standing by. My name is Ron, and I will be conference operator today. At this time, I would like to welcome everyone to the Corteva Agriscience third quarter 2024 earnings conference call. (Operator Instructions). I would now like to turn the call over to Kim Booth, Vice President of Investor Relations. Please go ahead.

謝謝你的支持。我叫羅恩，今天我將擔任會議操作員。此時此刻，我歡迎大家參加 Corteva Agriscience 2024 年第三季財報電話會議。（操作員說明）。我現在想將電話轉給投資者關係副總裁 Kim Booth。請繼續。

Good morning, and welcome to Corteva's third quarter 2024 earnings conference call. Our prepared remarks today will be led by Chuck Magro, Chief Executive Officer; and David Johnson, Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer. Additionally, Tim Glenn, Executive Vice President, Seed Business Unit; and Robert King, Executive Vice President, Crop Protection business unit, will join the Q&A session.

早安，歡迎參加 Corteva 2024 年第三季財報電話會議。我們今天準備好的演講將由執行長 Chuck Magro 主持；執行副總裁兼財務長戴維‧約翰遜 (David Johnson)。此外，提姆‧格倫 (Tim Glenn)，種子業務部執行副總裁；作物保護業務部執行副總裁 Robert King 將參加問答環節。

We have prepared presentation slides to supplement our remarks during this call, which are posted on the Investor Relations section of the Corteva website and through the link to our webcast. During this call, we will make forward-looking statements, which are our expectations about the future. These statements are based on current expectations and assumptions that are subject to various risks and uncertainties.

我們準備了簡報投影片來補充我們在本次電話會議期間的發言，這些幻燈片發佈在 Corteva 網站的投資者關係部分以及我們的網路廣播連結上。在這次電話會議中，我們將做出前瞻性陳述，這是我們對未來的期望。這些陳述是基於目前的預期和假設，受到各種風險和不確定性的影響。

Our actual results could materially differ from these statements due to these risks and uncertainties including, but not limited to, those discussed on this call and in the Risk Factors section of our reports filed with the SEC. We do not undertake any duty to update any forward-looking statements.

由於這些風險和不確定性，包括但不限於本次電話會議以及我們向 SEC 提交的報告的風險因素部分中討論的風險和不確定性，我們的實際結果可能與這些陳述存在重大差異。我們不承擔更新任何前瞻性陳述的責任。

Please note in today's presentation, we'll be making references to certain non-GAAP financial measures. Reconciliations of the non-GAAP measures can be found in our earnings press release and related schedules, along with our supplemental financial summary slide deck, available on our Investor Relations website. It's now my pleasure to turn the call over to Chuck.

請注意，在今天的演示中，我們將參考某些非公認會計準則財務指標。非公認會計原則措施的調節可以在我們的收益新聞稿和相關時間表以及我們的投資者關係網站上提供的補充財務摘要幻燈片中找到。現在我很高興將電話轉給查克。

Thanks, Kim. Good morning, everyone, and thanks for joining us. Corteva's results for the third quarter were largely in line with our expectations. Despite the fact that we had an operating loss in the quarter, we continue to execute well and are on track to deliver over $400 million of savings from our controllables this year.

謝謝，金。大家早安，感謝您加入我們。Corteva 第三季的業績基本上符合我們的預期。儘管我們在本季度出現了營運虧損，但我們的執行力仍然良好，今年我們預計將透過可控因素節省超過 4 億美元的成本。

The Crop Protection business delivered earnings and margin growth led by demand for our differentiated technology, along with deflation benefits that have just begun. Today, we're also providing a first look at 2025. We are expecting to return to double-digit earnings growth, which is largely driven by factors in our control.

作物保護業務在對我們差異化技術的需求以及剛開始的通貨緊縮效益的帶動下實現了盈利和利潤增長。今天，我們也對 2025 年進行了初步展望。我們預計獲利將恢復兩位數成長，這主要是由我們控制的因素推動的。

What continues to set us apart is the strength and leverage of our portfolio, the continued focus on execution and increased investment in innovation in what has historically been our smallest quarter due to seed seasonality, we were still able to deliver over $160 million in controllable benefits.

繼續讓我們脫穎而出的是我們投資組合的實力和影響力、對執行的持續關注以及對創新的投資增加，儘管由於種子季節性，我們在歷史上最小的季度中仍然能夠提供超過1.6 億美元的可控收益。

Our ability to pull multiple levers to improve overall performance makes us resilient when faced with variables not entirely in our control including the ongoing crop protection market dynamics and acreage loss from Argentina Cornerstone.

我們能夠利用多種槓桿來提高整體業績，這使我們在面對不完全在我們控制範圍內的變數時具有彈性，包括持續的作物保護市場動態和阿根廷基石的種植面積損失。

Overall, the Seed business is delivering a strong performance in 2024. From an operational excellence perspective, the business drove approximately $175 million in controllable benefits on a year-to-date basis, including royalty improvement and productivity. RC business is also set up for continued growth with our pipeline of technology and new hybrids.

總體而言，種子業務在 2024 年將表現強勁。從卓越營運的角度來看，該業務今年迄今帶來了約 1.75 億美元的可控收益，包括特許權使用費提高和生產力。RC 業務也將透過我們的技術和新型混合動力產品線實現持續成長。

Pricing gains in most regions as well as notable share gains in North America are a testament to the value our technologies provide to farmers. And for 2025, we will roll out several hundred new hybrids and varieties around the world. This is helping farmers increase yield and productivity when they need it the most.

大多數地區的定價上漲以及北美市場份額的顯著增長證明了我們的技術為農民提供的價值。到 2025 年，我們將在世界各地推出數百個新的雜交品種和品種。這有助於農民在最需要的時候提高產量和生產力。

On the crop protection side, we're happy to see a second consecutive quarter of volume gains as well as notable operating EBITDA growth, margin improvement and the first meaningful tranche of deflation benefits in the third quarter. We remain committed to our strategy of focusing on differentiated in new technologies, which warrant a premium in the market.

在作物保護方面，我們很高興看到連續第二季的銷售成長、營業稅息折舊及攤銷前利潤(EBITDA) 的顯著增長、利潤率的改善以及第三季度第一批有意義的通貨緊縮效益。我們仍然致力於專注於差異化新技術的策略，這保證了市場溢價。

On a year-to-date basis, we received over 150 crop protection registration approvals spanning 25 active ingredients in almost 50 countries. And like Seed, our CP business is generating substantial value through its focus on controllables, which drove approximately $170 million of benefits in the first nine months of the year.

今年迄今，我們在近 50 個國家獲得了 150 多項作物保護註冊批准，涵蓋 25 種活性成分。與 Seed 一樣，我們的 CP 業務透過專注於可控因素而創造了巨大的價值，在今年前 9 個月帶來了約 1.7 億美元的收益。

Overall, the ag markets remain mixed. We're still seeing record demand for food and fuel. Farmers continue to prioritize top-tier seed technologies while managing tighter margins. And the crop protection market has turned the corner in every major market except Brazil, where we are early in the season.

整體而言，農產品市場依然喜憂參半。我們仍然看到食品和燃料的需求創紀錄。農民繼續優先考慮頂級種子技術，同時管理更嚴格的利潤。除巴西外，每個主要市場的作物保護市場都已出現轉折點，巴西正處於產季初期。

It's important to note that underlying farmer demand in terms of applications remains on track with historical levels. However, we continue to experience competitive market dynamics and expect that to continue into next year.

值得注意的是，農民在應用方面的潛在需求仍符合歷史水準。然而，我們繼續經歷競爭激烈的市場動態，並預計這種情況將持續到明年。

So what does all this mean for the remainder of the year? We are updating our full year operating EBITDA range to $3.4 billion at the midpoint to reflect the impact of the current Latin America market conditions that will carry through to our full year results. However, we are still positioned to achieve approximately 20% for full year EBITDA margin. This adjustment reflects the latest market realities in Latin America, including expectations for an approximate 20% year-over-year reduction in Argentina's corn planted area due to [corn stun].

那麼這一切對今年剩餘時間意味著什麼呢？我們將全年營運 EBITDA 範圍的中位數更新為 34 億美元，以反映當前拉丁美洲市場狀況對我們全年業績的影響。然而，我們仍有望實現全年 EBITDA 利潤率約 20%。這項調整反映了拉丁美洲最新的市場現實，包括預計阿根廷玉米種植面積將年減約 20%，原因是[玉米眩暈]。

It is fair to say that our full year estimates are assuming a big fourth quarter in Brazil, but this is something we've done before. It's also important to note that we remain committed to free cash flow in the range of $1.5 billion to $2 billion for the year as well as $1 billion in share repurchases.

可以公平地說，我們的全年預測假設巴西第四季度業績強勁，但這是我們之前做過的事情。同樣重要的是要注意，我們仍然致力於今年 15 億至 20 億美元的自由現金流以及 10 億美元的股票回購。

Today, we'd also like to provide a first look at how we're thinking about 2025. We'll provide official guidance in early February, but we wanted to give some insights prior to Investor Day. From a macro perspective, we're anticipating a continuation of record demand for grain, oilseeds, meat and biofuels.

今天，我們也想初步了解我們對 2025 年的看法。我們將在二月初提供官方指導，但我們想在投資者日之前提供一些見解。從宏觀角度來看，我們預期對穀物、油籽、肉類和生質燃料的需求將繼續創紀錄。

On-farm demand is expected to remain steady and farmers will continue to prioritize top-tier technologies in order to maximize their yields. A farmer seat selection is particularly critical and is nondiscretionary when compared to other crop inputs.

農場需求預計將保持穩定，農民將繼續優先考慮頂級技術，以最大限度地提高產量。與其他作物投入相比，農民席位的選擇尤其重要，並且是不可自由裁量的。

In terms of US planted area assumptions, total area planted by farmers in 2025 is expected to be nearly flat year-over-year. It is too early to say too much about Latin America for next year since farmers are in the fields right now planting the '24-'25 crop in Brazil, which, at this time, is looking like a mid-single-digit increase for both corn and soybeans.

就美國種植面積假設而言，2025 年農民種植總面積預計將與去年同期大致持平。現在對拉丁美洲明年的情況說太多還為時過早，因為巴西農民現在正在田裡種植“24-25”作物，目前看來，巴西的農作物產量將出現中等個位數的增長。大豆。

Finally, it's too early to forecast a recovery for corn planted area in Argentina in the '25 crop year until we see how the current season plays out. Our current view of the crop protection industry is a flattish 2025. It's a dynamic situation that we're monitoring daily, but all major markets are functionally normally except for Brazil, where, as I said, it's early in the season. Brazil remains an attractive market, given it is the only geography in the world that is able to materially increase planted area for corn and soybeans.

最後，在我們看到當前季節的情況之前，預測阿根廷 25 作物年度玉米種植面積的恢復還為時過早。我們目前對作物保護產業的看法是 2025 年前景平淡。我們每天都會監控這種動態情況，但除巴西外，所有主要市場都運作正常，正如我所說，巴西正處於產季初期。巴西仍然是一個有吸引力的市場，因為它是世界上唯一能夠大幅增加玉米和大豆種植面積的地區。

Farmer economic and agronomic benefits incentivize Brazilian soybean farmers to continue to plant corn in rotation. The strategic moves we've made, including investments in biologicals, and tilting our portfolio towards differentiated technology will allow our crop protection business to grow in 2025.

農民的經濟效益和農藝效益激勵巴西豆農繼續輪種玉米。我們採取的策略性舉措，包括對生物製品的投資以及將我們的產品組合向差異化技術傾斜，將使我們的作物保護業務在 2025 年實現成長。

When combined with sizable incremental benefits from our controllable levers, an increase in research and development investment and a significant currency headwind, we're anticipating double-digit operating EBITDA growth. So high level, although our top line and bottom line expectations have been impacted by the crop protection industry, our seed business has remained largely on plan, and we are expecting to achieve our enterprise goal of 21% to 23% EBITDA margins by 2025.

結合我們可控槓桿帶來的可觀增量收益、研發投資的增加以及重大的貨幣逆風，我們預計營運 EBITDA 將實現兩位數成長。如此高的水平，儘管我們的營收和利潤預期受到作物保護行業的影響，但我們的種子業務基本上仍按計劃進行，我們預計到 2025 年實現 21% 至 23% EBITDA 利潤率的企業目標。

We still have a lot of work to do, but the setup is looking good for 2025. And with that, let me turn it over to David Johnson to review our financial performance. As you know, David joined Corteva just under two months ago and has really hit the ground running as our CFO. I'm happy to have him on our leadership team and I'm impressed with how well he has immersed himself into the organization, which has allowed him in very short order to add valuable insights on our business and operations. David, over to you.

我們還有很多工作要做，但 2025 年的設定看起來不錯。接下來，讓我將其交給大衛·約翰遜來審查我們的財務表現。如您所知，David 不到兩個月前加入 Corteva，並作為我們的財務長真正開始了工作。我很高興他加入我們的領導團隊，他對組織的融入程度給我留下了深刻的印象，這使他能夠在很短的時間內為我們的業務和營運提供寶貴的見解。大衛，交給你了。

Thanks, Chuck, and welcome, everyone, to the call. Let's start on slide 6, which provides the financial results for the quarter and year-to-date. Briefly touching on the third quarter, organic sales were down 5% compared to prior year, with crop protection up 1% and seed down 17%.

謝謝查克，歡迎大家來電。讓我們從第 6 張投影片開始，它提供了本季和年初至今的財務表現。簡單談談第三季度，有機銷售額與去年同期相比下降了 5%，其中作物保護銷售額增加了 1%，種子銷售額下降了 17%。

Pricing for [corn] was down 8% and reflecting the continued competitive pressure in the crop protection industry and end of season settlements in North America Seeds. Third quarter volume was up 3% over prior year. Feed volumes were down 12%, primarily driven by reduced corn area in Argentina. Crop Protection volumes were up 11%, led by Latin America and North America. Volume of new crop protection products and spinosins were both up more than 20% in the quarter compared to prior year.

[玉米] 價格下跌 8%，反映出作物保護產業持續的競爭壓力以及北美種子公司的季末結算。第三季銷售量比去年同期成長 3%。飼料量下降 12%，主要是因為阿根廷玉米麵積減少。作物保護產量增加了 11%，其中拉丁美洲和北美領先。與去年同期相比，本季新作物保護產品和斯皮諾素的銷售量均成長了 20% 以上。

Turning to year-to-date. Sales were down 4% versus prior year with flat pricing and lower volume. Seed organic sales were up 1% compared to prior year with pricing up 4% with gains across the portfolio. Seed volumes were down 3% year-to-date, driven by reduced plant area in Argentina, EMEA and Asia.

轉向年初至今。銷售額較前一年下降 4%，但價格持平且銷量減少。與去年相比，種子有機銷售額成長了 1%，價格上漲了 4%，整個產品組合都有所成長。由於阿根廷、歐洲、中東和非洲和亞洲種植面積減少，今年迄今的種子產量下降了 3%。

Crop Protection organic sales were down 7% year-to-date, with pricing down 5%, primarily driven by competitive market dynamics in Latin America. Crop Protection volumes were down 2% with volume gains in Latin America and Asia, offset by declines in EMEA, driven by residual destocking and unfavorable weather and North America driven by just-in-time purchasing behavior. Operating EBITDA of approximately $2.9 billion year-to-date is down 5% compared to prior year. Operating EBITDA margin was 22%, essentially flat compared to prior year.

今年迄今為止，作物保護有機產品銷售額下降了 7%，價格下降了 5%，這主要是由於拉丁美洲競爭激烈的市場動態所致。作物保護銷量下降了 2%，其中拉丁美洲和亞洲銷量增長，但被剩餘去庫存和不利天氣推動的歐洲、中東和非洲地區銷量下降以及及時採購行為驅動的北美地區銷量下降所抵消。年初至今，營運 EBITDA 約 29 億美元，比上年下降 5%。營業 EBITDA 利潤率為 22%，與上年基本持平。

Moving on to slide 7 for a summary of year-to-date operating EBITDA performance. Seed pricing gains were offset by crop protection pricing pressure, while volume was lower from headwinds in both seed and crop protection.

請前往投影片 7，以了解今年迄今的 EBITDA 營運績效摘要。種子價格上漲被作物保護定價壓力所抵消，而種子和作物保護方面的不利因素導致銷售下降。

Improvement in net royalties, crop protection raw material deflation and productivity actions more than offset cost headwinds from higher seed commodity and other costs. SG&A costs were modestly higher as expected, given the full year ownership of the biological acquisitions and normalized bad debt accruals. R&D expense is in line with expectations on track to be approximately 8% of sales for the full year.

淨特許權使用費、作物保護原料通貨緊縮和生產力行動的改善足以抵消種子商品和其他成本上漲所帶來的成本阻力。考慮到生物收購的全年所有權和正常化的壞帳應計額，SG&A 成本如預期略有上升。研發費用預計佔全年銷售額的 8% 左右，符合預期。

With that, let's go to slide 8 and transition to the updated outlook for the year. The updated full year guidance reflects the current Latin America market dynamics. We now expect net sales to be in the range of [$17 billion] and $17.2 billion or down 1% at the midpoint versus prior year.

接下來，讓我們轉到幻燈片 8 並過渡到更新後的今年展望。更新後的全年指引反映了當前拉丁美洲市場的動態。我們現在預計淨銷售額將在 [170 億美元] 至 172 億美元之間，或與去年同期相比下降 1%。

The lower guidance is primarily due to lower-than-expected planted area in Argentina and dry weather in Brazil, impacting both seed and crop protection. Lower top line growth translates to an updated operating EBITDA range of $3.35 billion and $3.45 billion, up 1% at the midpoint compared to prior year.

指引值較低的主要原因是阿根廷的種植面積低於預期以及巴西的乾旱天氣，影響了種子和作物保護。較低的營收成長意味著更新後的營業 EBITDA 範圍為 33.5 億美元和 34.5 億美元，比上年中位數成長 1%。

Driven by the strength of seed performance in the first half of the year and Crop Protection volume growth and cost improvement in the second half of the year, operating EBITDA margin expected to be about 20% at the midpoint or about 25 basis points higher than prior year. Operating EPS is now expected to be in the range of $2.50 and $2.60 or down 5% compared to prior year.

受上半年種子業績強勁以及下半年作物保護銷售成長和成本改善的推動，營業 EBITDA 利潤率預計將達到中位數 20% 左右，比去年同期高出約 25 個基點年。目前預計營運每股收益在 2.50 美元至 2.60 美元之間，或比去年下降 5%。

And finally, we are reaffirming our free cash flow guidance of $1.5 billion to $2.0 billion or approximately $1.75 billion at the midpoint, and cash flow to EBITDA conversion rate of 45% to 50% for the full year 2024. With that, let's transition the setup for 2025. As Chuck said, we'll provide formal guidance in early February but slide 9 represents a high-level view of our planning framework, along with key assumptions that could drive us to the low and high end of our net sales range of $17.3 billion to $17.7 billion and operating EBITDA range of $3.6 billion to $4.0 billion.

最後，我們重申 2024 年全年的自由現金流指引為 15 億至 20 億美元，中間值約為 17.5 億美元，現金流與 EBITDA 的轉換率為 45% 至 50%。這樣，我們就可以將設定轉變為 2025 年了。正如Chuck 所說，我們將在2 月初提供正式指導，但幻燈片9 代表了我們規劃框架的高層視圖，以及可能推動我們達到173 億美元至173 億美元淨銷售額範圍的低端和高端的關鍵假設。

In 2025, we expect low single-digit seed pricing driven by demand for yield advantage technology. One of the biggest variables in seed is planted area, both in Latin America and the corn versus soybeans split in North America. At the midpoint, we're assuming a relatively flat planted area.

到 2025 年，我們預計，由於對產量優勢技術的需求，種子定價將達到低個位數。種子的最大變數之一是種植面積，無論是在拉丁美洲還是在北美，玉米與大豆的差異都是如此。在中點，我們假設種植區域相對平坦​​。

Another key variable is how much growth we see in crop protection given the current market dynamics. [Unfirmed] demand remains relatively stable, we're expecting the crop protection industry to be mostly flat in 2025. New and differentiated products, including biologicals, are expected to drive much of the volume growth, while prices are expected to remain under pressure.

另一個關鍵變數是考慮到目前的市場動態，我們在作物保護方面看到了多少成長。 [未確認] 需求維持相對穩定，我們預期 2025 年植保業將基本持平。包括生物製品在內的新產品和差異化產品預計將在很大程度上推動銷售成長，而價格預計仍將面臨壓力。

In 2024, we started to see some raw material deflation in crop protection. In 2025, we expect to see more benefit from cost deflation with improvements in both seed and crop protection, coupled with productivity benefits.

2024 年，我們開始看到農作物保護領域的原料出現通貨緊縮。到 2025 年，我們預計，隨著種子和作物保護的改善以及生產力的提高，成本通貨緊縮將帶來更多好處。

Our assumptions include SG&A and R&D as a percentage of sales to be relatively consistent with 2024 levels. Together, it's a balanced set of assumptions, which gives us the confidence in our ability to grow earnings and margin in 2025 for both seed and crop protection.

我們的假設包括 SG&A 和研發佔銷售額的百分比，與 2024 年的水準相對一致。總之，這是一組平衡的假設，使我們對 2025 年種子和作物保護的收入和利潤成長能力充滿信心。

Turning to slide 10. You can see the operating EBITDA bridge for 2025 from approximately $3.4 billion in 2024 to $3.8 billion at the midpoint for 2025. Total company pricing expected to be flat to modestly up with low single-digit pricing in seed to be offset by declines in crop protection. We are expecting volume growth in both seed and crop protection. Our protection volume is expected to be up low to mid-single digits, driven by demand for new products and biologicals.

轉到投影片 10。您可以看到 2025 年的營運 EBITDA 橋樑從 2024 年的約 34 億美元增加到 2025 年中點的 38 億美元。公司總定價預計將持平或小幅上漲，種子定價較低，將被作物保護業務的下降所抵消。我們預計種子和作物保護的銷售都會成長。在新產品和生物製品需求的推動下，我們的保護量預計將上升到中個位數。

2025 will be another important step in our journey to royalty neutrality. We expect approximately $50 million improvement in net royalty expense, driven almost entirely by increased out-licensing income as we continue to ramp up the licensing of Conkesta E3 soybeans and [power corn in less corn]. We expect approximately $400 million of cost improvements in 2025 driven by lower seed commodity costs, crop protection raw material deflation, and productivity actions, including benefits from crop protection footprint optimization.

2025 年將是我們邁向版稅中立之路的另一個重要一步。我們預計淨特許權使用費將增加約 5000 萬美元，這幾乎完全是由於我們繼續增加 Conkesta E3 大豆和【少玉米中的動力玉米】。我們預計，在種子商品成本降低、作物保護原料通貨緊縮和生產力行動（包括作物保護足跡優化帶來的效益）的推動下，到 2025 年成本將實現約 4 億美元的改善。

SG&A and R&D as a percentage of sales are expected to be relatively flat with 2024 levels, implying a modest increase in spend. Currency headwind is primarily driven by the Turkish lira and Brazilian real. Together, this translates to 12% operating EBITDA growth at the midpoint and more than 180 basis points of margin expansion.

SG&A 和研發佔銷售額的百分比預計將與 2024 年的水平相對持平，這意味著支出將適度增加。貨幣逆風主要由土耳其里拉和巴西雷亞爾推動。總之，這意味著營運 EBITDA 成長 12%，利潤率擴張超過 180 個基點。

With that, it is slide 11 to review the key drivers of the cost improvements in 2025. For the past several years, we've experienced significant inflation in the seed business, driven by higher commodity prices, lower weather-related productivity yields and higher production costs, including inflation on labor, [right] and warehouses. While not all these costs are expected to reverse, we will start to see the benefit from lower commodity costs in 2025 driven largely by North America and Latin America.

接下來，我們將在投影片 11 中回顧 2025 年成本改善的關鍵驅動因素。在過去的幾年裡，由於大宗商品價格上漲、與天氣相關的生產率下降以及生產成本上升（包括勞動力、[右]和倉庫的通貨膨脹），我們的種子業務經歷了嚴重的通貨膨脹。雖然預計並非所有這些成本都會逆轉，但我們將開始看到 2025 年大宗商品成本下降的好處，這主要是由北美和拉丁美洲推動的。

We expect to see a continuation as spend through 2027 given current commodity prices. We expect another year of low single-digit rate of deflation in crop protection raw materials. This is expected to be weighted towards the first half of 2025 based on the year-over-year comparison and our visibility given the roughly six months of crop protection inventory on hand.

鑑於目前的大宗商品價格，我們預計支出將持續到 2027 年。我們預期作物保護原料的通貨緊縮率又將維持在個位數的低水準。根據同比比較以及我們手頭上大約六個月的植保庫存的可見性，預計這一數字將在 2025 年上半年進行加權。

Both seeds and crop protection are expected to deliver productivity savings, including a benefit from the crop protection footprint optimization. Together, these benefits translate to approximately $550 million, which will be partially offset by inflation of the production costs. These costs include higher freight and labor as well as higher seed production costs related to the transition to seed trade technology in North America.

種子和作物保護都有望節省生產力，包括作物保護足跡優化的好處。這些收益合計約為 5.5 億美元，部分將被生產成本的上漲所抵銷。這些成本包括更高的運費和勞動力，以及與北美種子貿易技術過渡相關的更高種子生產成本。

Moving on to slide 12 and summarize the key takeaways. Driven mostly by the current market dynamics in Latin America for both seed and crop protection, we're updating full year guidance and now expect EBITDA to be in the $3.4 billion at the midpoint.

繼續看投影片 12，總結關鍵要點。主要受拉丁美洲當前種子和作物保護市場動態的推動，我們正在更新全年指引，目前預計 EBITDA 中位數將達到 34 億美元。

We remain on track to deliver $1.5 billion to $2.0 billion of free cash flow and complete $1 billion of share repurchases for full year 2024. We provide a preliminary outlook for 2025, which includes sales, operating EBITDA and margin growth, and we look forward to the upcoming Investor Day where we'll give you more detail on our growth outlook from 2025 to 2027. With that, let me turn it over to Kim with a reminder about the upcoming Investor Day.

我們仍有望在 2024 年全年實現 15 億至 20 億美元的自由現金流，並完成 10 億美元的股票回購。我們提供了 2025 年的初步展望，其中包括銷售額、營運 EBITDA 和利潤成長，我們期待即將到來的投資者日，屆時我們將向您提供有關 2025 年至 2027 年成長前景的更多詳細資訊。接下來，讓我將其轉交給 Kim，並提醒即將到來的投資者日。

Thanks, David. As most of you know, we'll be holding our Investor Day event on November 19 in New York City. It will include a 3.5-hour executive webcast with various members of our management team, followed by an innovation showcase for those in person.

謝謝，大衛。正如你們大多數人所知，我們將於 11 月 19 日在紐約舉行投資者日。其中包括與我們管理團隊的各個成員一起進行的 3.5 小時的高階主管網路廣播，然後是現場的創新展示。

Topics of discussion will include our leading position in the ag tech industry, the technology and operational excellence that will drive our financial framework out to 2027 as well as the various growth platforms that will create additional value creation through next decade. If you haven't already registered, information can be found on our Investor Relations website, or please feel free to contact me directly.

討論的主題將包括我們在農業科技行業的領先地位、將推動我們的財務框架持續到 2027 年的技術和卓越運營，以及將在未來十年創造額外價值的各種增長平台。如果您尚未註冊，可以在​​我們的投資者關係網站上找到信息，或者請隨時直接與我聯繫。

Now before we get into Q&A, Chuck, I believe you'd like to make a few closing remarks.

現在，在我們進入問答環節之前，查克，我相信您想發表一些結束語。

Yes. Thanks, Kim. We look forward to seeing many of you in New York in a couple of weeks. We have several exciting new announcements regarding the mid- and long-term growth trajectory of Corteva. Finally, I'd like to say a few words about the announcement we made a few weeks ago that we will have a new Executive Vice President for our Seed business beginning on December 1.

是的。謝謝，金。我們期待幾週後在紐約見到你們中的許多人。關於 Corteva 的中長期成長軌跡，我們發布了幾個令人興奮的新公告。最後，我想就我們幾週前發布的公告說幾句話，我們將從 12 月 1 日開始任命一位負責種子業務的新執行副總裁。

(inaudible) O'Connor will succeed Tim Glenn, who will transition into a strategic adviser role until his retirement in the first quarter. Jed is a 25-year veteran of Corteva and it heritage companies and is assuming this position after most recently serving as the President of our North American business. Earlier in his career, Jed also served as DuPont's Latin America Regional President based out of Sao Paulo.

（聽不清楚）奧康納將接替提姆·格倫，提姆·格倫將轉任策略顧問角色，直到第一季退休。Jed 是 Corteva 及其傳統公司 25 年的資深人士，在最近擔任我們北美業務的總裁後擔任此職位。在其職業生涯早期，傑德也曾擔任杜邦公司駐聖保羅的拉丁美洲地區總裁。

Few people know our customers and business better than [Jed] and I'm pleased to have him join our management team. This, of course, is certainly bittersweet. However, as Tim is such an institution at Corteva, there are a few people anywhere in any company that know agriculture, farming and our industry better. We will certainly miss him but wish him all the best in his well-earned retirement.

很少有人比 [Jed] 更了解我們的客戶和業務，我很高興他加入我們的管理團隊。當然，這無疑是苦樂參半的。然而，由於 Tim 是 Corteva 的這樣一個機構，任何公司中的任何地方都有少數人更了解農業、農業和我們的行業。我們當然會想念他，但祝他在他應有的退休生活中一切順利。

And now I'll hand it back over to Kim.

現在我會把它交還給 Kim。

Thanks, Chuck. Now let's move on to your questions. I would like to remind you that our cautions on forward-looking statements and non-GAAP measures apply to both our prepared remarks and to the following Q&A. Operator, please provide the Q&A instructions.

謝謝，查克。現在讓我們繼續回答您的問題。我想提醒您，我們對前瞻性陳述和非公認會計原則措施的警告適用於我們準備好的評論和以下問答。運營商，請提供問答說明。

(Operator Instructions)

（操作員說明）

Vincent Andrews, Morgan Stanley.

文森安德魯斯，摩根士丹利。

Thank you, and good morning, everyone. Could I ask on slide 11 at $150 million of inflation and other costs. Could you maybe break it down a little bit and give us a sense of how much each of those buckets you mentioned were.

謝謝大家，大家早安。我可以在投影片 11 上詢問 1.5 億美元的通貨膨脹和其他成本嗎？您能否將其分解一下，讓我們了解您提到的每個桶的價值。

I'm particularly interested in the seed trade transition costs, which I assume are associated with [worseed], but as I think back to other trade transitions you've done, whether it was to extend and then extend to Enlist, which were obviously enormous transition. I don't remember us talking about very substantial costs. So I'm just wondering if you could give us a little bit more insight into that total $150 million bucket. Thank you.

我對種子貿易轉型成本特別感興趣，我認為這與 [worseed] 相關，但當我回想一下你所做的其他貿易轉型時，無論是擴展還是擴展至入伍，這顯然都是巨大的轉變。我不記得我們談過非常大的成本。所以我想知道您能否讓我們更深入地了解這 1.5 億美元的總額。謝謝。

Yes. So this is David, Vincent. Nice to meet you. When you look at the total, I would say, about 2/3 to 75% of that is in the Seed business. And then of that, most of it is the trade. There's about 25% of that number that would be in the inflation bucket.

是的。這是大衛，文森特。很高興見到你。當你看一下總數時，我會說，其中大約 2/3 到 75% 是在種子業務中。其中，大部分是貿易。其中約有 25% 屬於通貨膨脹範疇。

As you can imagine, when you look at our COGS for the Seed business, there is a commodity element, but there's a pretty significant element that's non seed COGS or commodity related. And that's where we're seeing some of the inflation.

正如您可以想像的那樣，當您查看種子業務的銷貨成本時，會發現其中存在商品元素，但有一個非常重要的元素與種子銷貨成本或商品無關。這就是我們看到的一些通貨膨脹的地方。

Vince, and I'll touch a little bit on the trade transition costs as we define them. So we've got two major corn trade transitions going on in North America right now. One is from [chrome divorsees] as you identified, and the other is from some of our heritage aboveground traits into PowerCore and [Lyft]. And so with the trade transition costs, they're going to be something we deal with over the next couple of years. Part of it is just ramping up those new technologies and bringing in those lines.

文斯，我將稍微談談我們定義的貿易轉型成本。因此，北美目前正在發生兩次主要的玉米貿易轉型。正如您所指出的，一個來自 [chrome divorses]，另一個來自我們的一些傳統地上特徵到 PowerCore 和[Lyft]。因此，對於貿易轉型成本，它們將是我們在未來幾年內處理的問題。其中一部分只是加強這些新技術並引入這些產品線。

The other part is, as we produce them, we were, call it, mature in terms of use of sterility and other technologies that we have that are driving a lot of productivity in the field. And because of the pace of the transition here, we're not going to have the level of sterility primarily in the field.

另一部分是，當我們生產它們時，我們在無菌和其他技術的使用方面已經成熟，這些技術正在推動該領域的大量生產力。由於這裡的轉變速度很快，我們不會主要在現場達到不孕水準。

And so we're going to have to go back to the casting and doing some things, incurring some costs associated with that. It's just about the size of those transitions and the costs we have to incur during this period until we're kind of operating as we -- at a steady state like we have been for the last several years with AcreMax and Chrome technologies. So it's really something that we'll deal with over the next couple of years and will fade away as we move towards, I'd say, a steady state with those technologies.

因此，我們將不得不回到選角並做一些事情，從而產生一些與之相關的成本。這只是關於這些轉變的規模以及我們在此期間必須承擔的成本，直到我們像過去幾年使用 AcreMax 和 Chrome 技術那樣處於穩定狀態。因此，這確實是我們將在未來幾年內處理的問題，隨著我們走向這些技術的穩定狀態，它將逐漸消失。

Joel Jackson, BMO Capital Markets.

喬爾傑克森 (Joel Jackson)，BMO 資本市場。

Good morning, everyone. Chuck and the team, when I look at your guidance, your first look here at the guidance next year for seed cost deflation and CPC cost deflation, it does seem at a couple hundred million dollar benefit next year, it does seem a little bit low versus what a lot have thought is possible. Can you talk about how you're initially modeling that number for '25? Is this what you have -- you can point to this for sure what we can get? Or is this your base case? Is there more upside? Can you talk about that?

大家早安。Chuck 和團隊，當我看到你們的指導時，你們首先看到明年種子成本通貨緊縮和 CPC 成本通貨緊縮的指導，明年確實有幾億美元的收益，看起來確實有點低與很多人認為可能的事情相比。您能談談您最初是如何為 25 年這個數字建模的嗎？這就是你所擁有的——你可以指出這一點來確定我們能得到什麼嗎？或者這是您的基本情況？還有更多的上升空間嗎？你能談談嗎？

Yes. So maybe I'll start and then David can give you a bit more specifics. So you're right. We wanted to give a first look at 2025 simply because we're having our Investor Day in a couple of years where we're going to talk about the framework through '27 and some of the technology opportunities that we believe strongly in beyond 2027, even into the end of the decade and early next. So this is a little early for Corteva to give a view of 2025, but there are reasons for it.

是的。也許我會開始，然後大衛可以給你更多細節。所以你是對的。我們想先展望 2025 年，因為幾年後我們將舉行投資者日，我們將在會上討論 27 年的框架以及我們堅信 2027 年之後的一些技術機會，甚至到本世紀末和下個世紀初。因此，Corteva 給出 2025 年的展望還為時過早，但這是有原因的。

Obviously, we'll give official guide like normal in the beginning of February as we release our fourth quarter. And a large part of this, so the takeaways for me on the '25 number is a large part of it is under our control, and we're feeling very good about that. And on a gross basis, it's $600 million really driven by cost management, productivity and there's deflation. And I'd say, David, deflation is about half of that?

顯然，我們將在二月初發布第四季時像往常一樣提供官方指南。其中很大一部分，所以對我來說，關於 25 號的收穫是，其中很大一部分是在我們的控制之下，我們對此感覺非常好。從總額來看，這 6 億美元實際上是由成本管理、生產力和通貨緊縮所推動的。我想說，大衛，通貨緊縮大約是其中的一半？

Correct.

正確的。

And then don't forget when we talk about seed deflation because of the way we hedge and we manage that cost. It's going to be a 3-year journey for us. And I think we've been as clear as we can be that there's going to be deflationary benefits in seed in '25, in 2026 and 2027. So we're just getting started. In fact, we're seeing higher costs still in the seed COGS right now, but we're seeing deflation finally in CP, which we're pretty excited about.

然後不要忘記，當我們談論種子通貨緊縮時，因為我們對沖和管理成本的方式。這對我們來說將是一個為期三年的旅程。我認為我們已經盡可能明確地表明，25 年、2026 年和 2027 年種子將帶來通貨緊縮的好處。所以我們才剛開始。事實上，我們現在看到種子銷售成本仍然較高，但最終我們看到商業成本出現通貨緊縮，對此我們感到非常興奮。

So when you start thinking about that $600 million gross, there are some offsets, which actually, David just covered. You put it all together, double-digit EBITDA growth, margin expansion a strong portfolio lineup. And as Tim just described, Corteva is really strategically shifting now from being what we used to be a technology buyer to now a technology seller, that's the long-term journey that's really exciting for the company.

因此，當你開始考慮這 6 億美元的總收入時，你會發現有一些抵消，實際上，大衛剛剛涵蓋了這些。綜合來看，兩位數的 EBITDA 成長、利潤率擴張以及強大的投資組合陣容。正如 Tim 剛才所描述的那樣，Corteva 現在確實正在策略性地從過去的技術買家轉變為現在的技術賣家，這是對公司來說真正令人興奮的長期旅程。

Now we have to bear some costs in order to achieve that. But the framework as well, I think, articulated -- and it's too early for us to really say if it's overly conservative or not. Our view today is this is our best perspective. And don't forget, we are calling for basically the CP market to be essentially flat year-over-year. Anything to add, David?

現在我們必須承擔一些成本才能實現這一目標。但我認為，這個框架也已經闡明了——我們現在真正說它是否過於保守還為時過早。我們今天的觀點是，這是我們最好的觀點。不要忘記，我們呼籲 CP 市場基本上與同比持平。大衛，還有什麼要補充的嗎？

No, I think that's basically good. As Chuck said, about half of that number would be the productivity. The other half would be the cost of --

不，我認為這基本上很好。正如查克所說，其中大約一半是生產力。另一半將是成本--

Kevin McCarthy, Vertical Research.

凱文·麥卡錫，垂直研究。

Hi. This is [Matt Hettwer] on for Kevin McCarthy. How much seed sales were deferred to 4Q from 3Q? And what's the associated impact on earnings from that deferral?

你好。我是凱文·麥卡錫的[馬特·海特沃]。有多少種子銷售從第三季推遲到第四季？延期對收益有何影響？

So in terms of third quarter seed sales, I assume you're talking primarily on Latin America. So normally, we will have -- I'd say the bulk of Argentinian sales would take place in the third quarter and then would spread into the fourth quarter. And then think about Brazil, we'd have summer that would generally be third quarter and then (inaudible) would be exclusively -- and a little bit of the summer might go into the fourth quarter. Safrinha is generally going to be fourth quarter and then first quarter of the following year is going to catch it in.

因此，就第三季種子銷售而言，我認為您主要談論的是拉丁美洲。因此，通常情況下，我們會——我想說，阿根廷的大部分銷售將發生在第三季度，然後將蔓延到第四季度。然後想想巴西，我們的夏季通常是第三季度，然後（聽不清楚）將是完全的——夏季的一小部分時間可能會進入第四季度。薩夫林哈（Safrinha）通常會在第四季度開始，然後在下一年的第一季開始。

So as we think about the market this year, that reduction in Argentina is real. We talked about a 20% area reduction. That's a business that isn't deferred. That's business that's gone away. And when we think about what our impact is probably we don't talk about Argentina on every call. I do want to highlight from a seed standpoint, it's a very significant market. It's our third largest seed market in the world actually, and it's actually quite profitable when you look at the margins.

因此，當我們考慮今年的市場時，阿根廷的下降是真實的。我們討論了減少 20% 的面積。這是一項不可延遲的業務。那是已經消失的生意。當我們思考我們的影響時，我們可能不會在每次通話中都談論阿根廷。我確實想從種子的角度強調，這是一個非常重要的市場。實際上，這是我們在世界上第三大種子市場，當你看到利潤率時，它實際上是相當有利可圖的。

And the area that the reduction is taking place, we have an above-average market share approaching 40% of that market. So that business doesn't really come back. That's part of the reduction that we've talked about in terms of the overall year. So I don't think of that as a deferral.

在正在發生減少的地區，我們的市佔率高於平均水平，接近該市場的 40%。所以這項業務並沒有真正回來。這是我們所討論的全年削減的一部分。所以我不認為這是延遲。

And from a summer standpoint in Brazil, we're looking at another area of reduction there. Again, in the big picture, summer represents about 20% or even a little bit less than of the total Brazil corn area, and we're looking at probably 10% or maybe even a little bit greater area reduction this year coming off of a substantial reduction last year.

從巴西夏季的角度來看，我們正在考慮另一個減少的領域。再次強調，從總體上看，夏季玉米麵積約佔巴西玉米總面積的 20% 甚至略少，我們預計今年玉米麵積可能會減少 10%，甚至可能更大一些。

And again, that's not business, that's timing related. So from a Safrinha standpoint, no timing issue that fourth quarter. From an Argentina standpoint and from a Brazil summer, that's essentially volume that won't take place and is part of what we've talked about in terms of the overall reduction of seed area in Latin America.

再說一次，這不是生意，而是與時間相關的。因此，從薩夫林哈的角度來看，第四季不存在時間問題。從阿根廷和巴西夏季的角度來看，這基本上是不會發生的，也是我們所討論的拉丁美洲種子麵積總體減少的一部分。

Yes. And maybe just a couple of other thoughts on the overall seed business, if I can. So when I look at the year-to-date performance, we're extremely pleased. I think the seed business is having another extremely strong year.

是的。如果可以的話，也許只是對整個種子業務的一些其他想法。因此，當我看到今年迄今為止的表現時，我們非常高興。我認為種子業務又迎來了極其強勁的一年。

We're seeing market gains in corn and soybeans in North America. I think our EBITDA is up something like 8%. And we have the leading technologies around the world. And I believe our margins are approaching up about 220 basis points. So this is a business that I think the strategic pivot we've made a few years ago is really starting to pay off.

我們看到北美玉米和大豆市場上漲。我認為我們的 EBITDA 成長了 8% 左右。我們擁有全球領先的技術。我相信我們的利潤率將接近 220 個基點左右。因此，我認為我們幾年前製定的策略重點確實開始得到回報。

As Tim rightly called out, the third quarter is a very slow quarter when it comes to seed sales. And I do think that from an overall perspective, the Argentina Cornstone issue is one of the major drivers we did lower our full year guide.

正如蒂姆正確指出的那樣，就種子銷售而言，第三季是一個非常緩慢的季度。我確實認為，從整體角度來看，阿根廷玉米石問題是我們降低全年指南的主要驅動因素之一。

We believe that is a temporary item. In fact, there's some good news when it comes to Argentina and [Cornerstone]. We're hearing some external reports now that the insect that carries that issue, the population is down something like 90%. So we're hoping that the worst will be behind us, but time will tell. But we will do have this impact that will carry through the full year.

我們認為這是一個臨時項目。事實上，對阿根廷來說，有一些好消息[基石]。我們現在聽到一些外部報告稱，攜帶該問題的昆蟲數量減少了約 90%。因此，我們希望最糟糕的情況已經過去，但時間會證明一切。但我們確實會產生貫穿全年的影響。

David Begleiter, Deutsche Bank.

大衛‧貝格萊特，德意志銀行。

Thank you. Good morning. Chuck, on royalties -- seed royalties next year, they are down. Why is that? And where do you stand on your journey to royalty neutrality? Thank you.

謝謝。早安.查克，關於特許權使用費——明年的種子特許權使用費會下降。這是為什麼？您在實現版稅中立的過程中處於什麼位置？謝謝。

Yes. Maybe I'll give a perspective and then Tim can give you the details, David. But we're feeling really good about our journey to royalty neutrality. If you recall, this is one of the fundamental sort of leading indicators on the shift of our technology focus.

是的。也許我會給出一個觀點，然後蒂姆可以給你詳細信息，大衛。但我們對版稅中立的旅程感覺非常好。如果你還記得的話，這是我們技術重點轉移的基本領先指標之一。

We're still on track. I would say we're probably a little ahead maybe a year, maybe two years ahead to deliver royalty neutral by the end of the decade. And if you think about what we've been able to deliver in the last couple of years, we've been run rate about $100 million a year. And this year, in 2024, we're tracking quite a bit ahead of that.

我們仍然在正軌上。我想說，我們可能領先一點，也許一年，也許兩年，就能在本世紀末實現特許權使用費中性。如果您考慮一下我們在過去幾年中所取得的成果，您會發現我們每年的營運費用約為 1 億美元。今年，也就是 2024 年，我們的追蹤速度遠遠超前。

So that's one of the reasons why that next year, I think we're right now the preliminary view, and I'll just state that again, it is a preliminary view is slightly less than that. So if you look at '24 combined with '25, we're quite comfortable that we're on that average of about $100 million. But the real important thing isn't necessarily the numbers, it's what we're doing with the technology in terms of Enlist Power Core, and there's even some good news now in soybeans in Brazil. And maybe, Tim, you want to take a minute to talk about that?

這就是為什麼明年我認為我們現在是初步觀點的原因之一，我想再次聲明，初步觀點略低於這個觀點。因此，如果您將 24 年和 25 年的收入結合起來，您會發現我們的平均收入約為 1 億美元，對此我們感到非常滿意。但真正重要的不一定是數字，而是我們在 Enlist Power Core 方面利用科技所做的事情，現在甚至巴西的大豆也有一些好消息。提姆，也許你想花一點時間談談這件事？

Yes. I mean definitely, we talked about the fact that we're largely transitioned the last few years, a lot of our improvement in royalties our royalty position has been because of North America soybeans and the rapid adoption we made over to Enlist E3. We had talked about '25 being more of a transition year. So it's the year when royalty income is actually greater than royalty reduction.

是的。我的意思是，我們確實談到了這樣一個事實，即過去幾年我們在很大程度上進行了轉型，我們在特許權使用費方面的很大一部分改善是由於北美大豆以及我們對Enlist E3 的快速採用。我們曾討論過 25 年更像是過渡年。所以今年是特許權使用費收入實際上大於特許權使用費減少的一年。

And so the dynamics are a little bit different. And as Chuck said, we're -- say we're overdelivering a little bit this year, and that's a good thing. You only get to count at once, and we're going to take it this year instead of next year. .

所以動態有點不同。正如查克所說，我們今年超額交付了一點，這是一件好事。你只能一次性計算，我們將在今年而不是明年進行計算。。

As we think about where we go from here, there will still be, I'd say, opportunities for us to reduce royalties as we transition the different technology platforms. And those will be more subtle than what we've seen on the soybean transition in North America. But the big news is going to be about royalty collections. And we're now in the market in North America from a corn standpoint with power core and list, products being tested by many seed companies and being commercialized, independent seed companies and performance has been outstanding and interest and demand is good.

當我們思考未來的發展方向時，我想說，當我們過渡到不同的技術平台時，我們仍然有機會減少版稅。這些將比我們在北美大豆轉型中看到的更加微妙。但最大的新聞將是關於版稅收藏。我們現在在北美市場，從玉米的角度來看，有動力核心和清單，產品正在經過許多種子公司的測試並正在商業化，獨立種子公司的表現一直很出色，興趣和需求也很好。

Our challenge is we don't have a full portfolio offering where we sell the aboveground technology. Our next-generation below ground will have the opportunity to license that and that will really improve our position there. But it's a meaningful step forward and another milestone.

我們面臨的挑戰是，我們沒有提供完整的地面技術產品組合。我們的下一代地下將有機會獲得許可，這將真正改善我們在那裡的地位。但這是向前邁出的有意義的一步，也是另一個里程碑。

Obviously, Enlist E3, we've got over 100 licensees out there, and that's some benefit as well. And then on (inaudible) in Brazil, and that's the other one, Brazil and Argentina with Conkesta E3. We continue to make great progress there. And even though we're still in that call it, single-digit penetration standpoint, we're making progress.

顯然，加入 E3，我們已經擁有 100 多個被授權人，這也是一些好處。然後在巴西（聽不清楚），這是另一場比賽，巴西和阿根廷的 Conkesta E3。我們在那裡繼續取得巨大進展。儘管我們仍處於個位數滲透率的觀點，但我們正在取得進展。

And right now, there's over '25, Conkesta E3 varieties in the marketplace with more expected for next year. Adoption is going to continue to accelerate as more varieties come in the market and very competitive varieties at that, plus our own internal breeding program kind of hits its point where we're going to be able to contribute into the licensing market as well beginning in 2025, especially.

目前，市場上有超過 25 個 Conkesta E3 品種，預計明年會有更多品種。隨著更多的品種進入市場並且競爭非常激烈，採用率將繼續加速，加上我們自己的內部育種計劃已經達到了臨界點，我們將能夠從 2019 年開始為許可市場做出貢獻。年。

And I'd say a milestone we have, again, we're still in the early stages there with relatively low penetration, but we do have the first blockbuster -- blockbuster Conkesta E3 variety in Brazil, and we kind of measure that as varieties that crossed (inaudible) 1 million unit of sales, variety called Torrento CE, which was developed by one of our key breeding partners produced and sold by many multipliers.

我想說的是，我們擁有一個里程碑，我們仍處於早期階段，滲透率相對較低，但我們確實擁有第一個重磅產品——巴西的重磅產品 Conkesta E3 品種，我們將其衡量為品種該品種的銷量突破（聽不清楚）100 萬單位，名為Torrento CE，由我們的主要育種合作夥伴之一開發，由許多乘數生產和銷售。

It's widely planted by growers, and it crossed over 1 million units this past year. And I think it's one of eight varieties in the marketplace. So small step. We've got a long way to go. And certainly, as we get to the latter part of the decade, it's going to continue to accelerate. But what it shows is we've got to fit in the marketplace. We're in the game, and this is a big market that opens up for us as we go forward. So exciting part going forward, less about royalty reduction, really more about royalty collection as the future.

它被種植者廣泛種植，去年種植面積超過 100 萬株。我認為它是市場上八個品種之一。這麼小的一步。我們還有很長的路要走。當然，隨著我們進入本世紀後半段，它將會繼續加速。但它表明我們必須適應市場。我們參與其中，隨著我們的前進，這是一個為我們打開的巨大市場。未來令人興奮的部分，不再是關於版稅減少，而是更多關於未來的版稅收集。

Christopher Parkinson, Wolfe Research.

克里斯托弗·帕金森，沃爾夫研究。

Just circling back to slide 10 in terms of your EBIT outlook. Obviously, there are a lot of moving parts, and I think it's safe to say, at least in my opinion, there's some upside to a lot of the positives. But just in terms of the deductions, referring specifically to currency, the SG&A and R&D as a percent of sales, just kind of trying to isolate those factors along with the prospect of lower acreage in the US and CPC price.

回到投影片 10 來了解您的息稅前利潤前景。顯然，有很多變化的部分，我認為可以肯定地說，至少在我看來，許多積極因素都有一些好處。但就扣除額而言，特別是貨幣、SG&A 和研發佔銷售額的百分比，只是試圖將這些因素與美國種植面積和 CPC 價格下降的前景分開。

As you sit here today in terms of the, let's say, the offsets to the plethora of positives, there are we confident that, that FX is going to be stagnant at the $150 million? Are we confident that CPC pricing is more of a one half just kind of marking to market what we've seen in the second half and extending that into 2025.

當您今天坐在這裡時，我們是否有信心外匯將停滯在 1.5 億美元？我們是否有信心 CPC 定價更像是我們在下半年看到的市場價格的一半，並將其延續到 2025 年。

Are there any other risks that the buy-side community should really be factoring in? Or do we feel good about that and just kind of are sitting back to see how much of the upside scenario should actually play itself out? Thank you.

買方群體是否還應該真正考慮到其他風險？或者我們對此感覺良好，只是坐下來看看有多少上行前景應該真正發揮作用？謝謝。

Chris, this is David. Maybe I'll take the currency question, then maybe we'll pass it on to Chuck regarding the other elements. If you look at the currency right now, most of that is in Brazil. And as you know, we're kind of in the upper 5s as far as where the Real is trading at currently.

克里斯，這是大衛。也許我會回答貨幣問題，然後也許我們會將其傳遞給查克有關其他因素的問題。如果你現在看一下貨幣，大部分都是巴西的。如您所知，就皇馬目前的交易水準而言，我們處於前 5 位。

This year, our base was somewhere just south of 5.2%. So it's hard to really predict whether or not that will fight further or not. An average year, I think it's somewhere around 8% if you look over the long period of time. So I think we've have a reasonable estimate of what we think the impact will be. I never say never if it goes further give valuation, but I think we feel really comfortable with this number.

今年，我們的基數略高於 5.2%。因此很難真正預測這是否會進一步戰鬥。如果從長期來看，我認為平均每年約為 8%。所以我認為我們已經對影響進行了合理的估計。我從來沒有說過如果進一步估值就永遠不會，但我認為我們對這個數字感到非常滿意。

Yes. Maybe, Chris, just a couple of thoughts. Why don't we just take the bookends. So you'll probably notice that the 3.6% to 4% is wider than we normally provide. We did that because we're providing it earlier. And if you take the low end, the 3.6%, perhaps that is on the conservative side. The only time will tell. But we would certainly agree that a lot would have to be different than our current assumptions. .

是的。也許，克里斯，只是一些想法。我們為什麼不直接拿書擋呢？因此，您可能會注意到 3.6% 到 4% 比我們通常提供的範圍更寬。我們這樣做是因為我們更早提供它。如果你看下限，即 3.6%，也許這個數字是保守的。唯一的時間會證明一切。但我們肯定會同意，很多事情都與我們目前的假設不同。。

Now we're providing the '25 first look, as we said, because of our Investor Day, and what would need to happen, we believe, for that 3.6% to become a reality is we would have to face some pretty significant additional headwinds, right? Most likely continued CP market weakness and we would probably have to miss on some of our cost and productivity deliverables, which as you know, we have a very good track record again.

現在，正如我們所說，由於我們的投資者日，我們將提供“25 年第一眼”，我們相信，要使 3.6% 成為現實，我們將不得不面對一些相當重大的額外阻力， 正確的？CP 市場很可能持續疲軟，我們可能不得不錯過一些成本和生產力交付成果，正如您所知，我們再次擁有非常好的業績記錄。

Let's take the other end, $4 billion. As I said, it is a wider range. What would have to happen for us to hit $4 billion. We certainly think that $4 billion is on the table or we wouldn't have put it out there and very achievable. It would probably take us to overachieve on our deliverables, on our controllables, which we have a history of doing. But I think we'd also need to see a little bit of strength in the CP market.

讓我們看看另一端，40 億美元。正如我所說，它的範圍更廣。如果我們要達到 40 億美元，需要發生什麼事？我們當然認為 40 億美元已經擺在桌面上，否則我們不會把它拿出來，而且是非常可以實現的。我們可能需要在可交付成果和可控性方面取得超額成績，而我們有這樣做的歷史。但我認為我們還需要看到 CP 市場的一些實力。

Is that possible? Absolutely. But it's a little early to get overly bullish when we're sitting in the -- just in the fourth quarter right now, trying to finish up 2024. I think the important thing for folks to draw their attention to is, as a first look for 2025, my callout is double-digit earnings growth and margin expansion, a continuation of a journey that we've been on for 5 years.

這可能嗎？絕對地。但當我們正處於第四季度，試圖結束 2024 年時，現在過於樂觀還為時過早。我認為引起人們注意的重要一點是，作為 2025 年的第一眼，我的預測是兩位數的獲利成長和利潤率擴張，這是我們 5 年旅程的延續。

Joshua Spector, UBS.

約書亞‧斯佩克特，瑞銀集團。

This is (inaudible) on for Josh. Just wanted to clarify your expectations there on the Cropchem side. So for 2025, you noted that volumes are sort of stabilizing and then ongoing risk on the pricing side. Your guide seems to imply sort of mid-single-digit volume growth offset by pricing down low single digits. Is that correct and sales would sort of grow low single digits overall? Or can you walk us through kind of what's baked in there? Thanks.

這對喬許來說（聽不清楚）。只是想澄清一下您對 Cropchem 方面的期望。因此，對於 2025 年，您注意到銷售量趨於穩定，然後定價方面的風險持續存在。您的指南似乎暗示中個位數的銷售成長被低個位數的定價所抵銷。這是正確的嗎？或是可以帶我們了解裡面烤的是什麼嗎？謝謝。

Yes. So let me try to hit the highlights here for you. I think -- when I think about the CP market, the third quarter, I think, took another positive step towards full stabilization of this industry. We're not out of the woods yet, but we like what we saw in the third quarter.

是的。因此，讓我嘗試為您重點介紹這裡的亮點。我認為，當我想到 CP 市場時，我認為第三季朝著該行業的全面穩定又邁出了積極的一步。我們還沒有走出困境，但我們喜歡第三季所看到的。

And when you step back and you think about that, North America is actually seeing some strength. I'd say Europe and APAC are operating normally. Brazil is still, I think, one of the most unstable markets that we're operating in right now when it comes to CP. And there's a combination of reasons, right? It was really dry. So there was a weather impact. It is a well-supplied market, and there's cautious farming behavior still in this market.

當你退一步思考這一點時，北美實際上看到了一些實力。我想說歐洲和亞太地區運作正常。我認為，就 CP 而言，巴西仍然是我們目前營運的最不穩定的市場之一。有多種原因，對嗎？真的很乾。所以有天氣的影響。這是一個供應充足的市場，市場上的養殖行為仍然謹慎。

So when you put that all together, I think we're cautiously optimistic that the CP industry is starting to reach some stability. Now let's talk about our business. So the last couple of years have been tough for the industry. Nobody will say anything different than that. We feel that our business has performed quite well. In the third quarter, I'd say, for our CP business had a pretty good quarter.

因此，當你把所有這些放在一起時，我認為我們對 CP 行業開始達到一定的穩定性持謹慎樂觀的態度。現在我們來談談我們的業務。因此，過去幾年對該行業來說是艱難的。沒有人會說任何不同的話。我們覺得我們的業務表現相當不錯。我想說，第三季我們的CP業務表現相當不錯。

We saw the second consecutive quarter of volume growth, which is really to your question. And then we saw EBITDA growth for the first time in a year, over 30% EBITDA growth in our CP business. And some of that is deflation. A lot of that is what's in our control and our new technology.

我們看到銷量連續第二季成長，這確實是你的問題。然後我們一年來首次看到 EBITDA 成長，我們的 CP 業務 EBITDA 成長超過 30%。其中一些是通貨緊縮。其中很多都在我們的控制和新技術的範圍內。

So the look for 2025 then, just to get specific now is if our assumption is a flattish industry, we'll do better than that. And it will be really driven by, I think, volume growth in the, I'd say, mid-single digits, and it's driven by our new technology. We have several new AIs that are still ramping up, but the biological investments we've made. But the overall market is healthy. It's certainly healthier than it has been. And I think yet you'll see that our CP business grow at probably better than that in 2025.

因此，展望 2025 年，現在具體來說，如果我們的假設是一個持平的行業，我們會做得更好。我認為，這將真正由中位數的銷售成長推動，並由我們的新技術推動。我們有幾個新的人工智慧仍在不斷發展，但我們已經進行了生物投資。但整體市場是健康的。它肯定比以前更健康。我認為您會看到我們的 CP 業務成長可能會比 2025 年更好。

Frank Mitsch, Fermium Research.

弗蘭克米奇，費米研究中心。

Hey, good morning, and nice to meet you telephonically, David. Just a question on slide 17. North American seed price was down 25% year-over-year. That reflects end-of-season settlements. It seems like -- seems like an outlier. I was wondering if you could provide any more color on that?

嘿，早上好，很高興透過電話見到你，大衛。只是投影片 17 上的一個問題。北美種子價格年減 25%。這反映了季末結算。看起來——似乎是個異常值。我想知道你是否可以提供更多顏色？

Frank, this is Tim. I'll take a shot at that. And obviously, our business in North America is largely in the first half of the year. There's a very limited amount of that first half business that sometimes can trickle into the third quarter. And we just don't have a huge amount of business to kind of buffer some of these things.

弗蘭克，這是蒂姆。我會嘗試一下。顯然，我們在北美的業務主要集中在上半年。上半年的業務量非常有限，有時可以流入第三季。我們只是沒有大量的業務來緩衝其中的一些事情。

So when we talk about settlement issues, what we're talking about here is in the case of replants. And so replants are a normal part of the business. We factored into our equation. It's part of the terms of trade we have, service policy we have for farmers. And every year, we accrue for replants, and sometimes they hit early, sometimes they hit less. Sometimes they have a little bit more.

因此，當我們談論定居問題時，我們在這裡談論的是重新種植的情況。因此，重新種植是業務的正常組成部分。我們將其納入方程式。這是我們貿易條件的一部分，也是我們為農民提供的服務政策的一部分。每年，我們都會累積重新種植的資金，有時它們會提前出現，有時會出現較少的情況。有時他們有更多一點。

This year, actually, we're -- from the amount of replants we've had, it's very much in the normal range. So we had planned for it, just hit a little bit later. And so it showed up in the third quarter rather than the second quarter. So it's quite visible this year.

事實上，今年，從我們的補種數量來看，它非常在正常範圍內。所以我們已經計劃好了，只是晚了一點。所以它出現在第三季而不是第二季。所以今年這現象非常明顯。

And why that is, if you think about the planning progress and some of the early season floods that we had, particularly in the northern corn belt in the Northwest Iowa, Southern Minnesota, we ended up with a little bit of elevated replants versus a year ago, and they were a little bit later just in terms of the settlement standpoint.

這就是為什麼，如果你考慮一下規劃進度和我們遇到的一些早季洪水，特別是在愛荷華州西北部和明尼蘇達州南部的北部玉米帶，我們最終的補種量比一年有所增加之前，只是從和解的角度來看，他們晚了一點。

So it's not -- shows up as a price concession. And obviously, there's not a lot of volume that takes place there that kind of buffers it. And so it's quite visible there. And it looks unusual. It's actually a normal part of the business. It just doesn't oftentimes hit by itself in a quarter as it did here. So that's kind of a little background on what the issue is.

所以這並不是——表現為價格讓步。顯然，那裡沒有發生大量的交易量來緩衝它。所以它在那裡很明顯。而且看起來很不尋常。這實際上是業務的正常部分。它只是不像這裡那樣經常在一個季度內自行擊中。這就是問題所在的一些背景知識。

Steve Byrne, Bank of America.

史蒂夫伯恩，美國銀行。

Yes. Thank you very much. This is (inaudible) filling in for Steve. So I want to check a little bit on the pricing environment for crop chemicals and especially in Brazil, where the price was down 18% and -- if you can talk a little bit about that and why is it deteriorating so rapidly? Is it that you're trying to regain share? Is it the threat of imports and generics?

是的。非常感謝。這是（聽不清楚）填補史蒂夫的空缺。因此，我想稍微了解一下農作物化學品的定價環境，特別是在巴西，價格下降了 18%，如果您能談談這一點，為什麼價格惡化得如此之快？你是想重新奪回市佔率嗎？是進口藥和仿製藥的威脅嗎？

And at the same time, I think one of your competitors was talking about they were actually later in the game trying to regain share by lowering their price, and everybody has already done. So it doesn't seem like that's the case actually. And what do you think your competitors are doing now? Will they have to respond to your price declines? Or are you the last one to, I guess, cut price?

與此同時，我認為你的一位競爭對手正在談論他們實際上在遊戲後期試圖透過降低價格來重新獲得份額，而每個人都已經這樣做了。所以實際情況似乎並非如此。您認為您的競爭對手現在在做什麼？他們必須對你的降價做出反應嗎？或者我猜你是最後一個降價的人嗎？

This is Robert. I'll touch a little bit on this. Specific to Brazil and price, let me start with the Crop Protection. We finished up the quarter down 10% on price. But if you look at year-to-date, we're in the mid-single digits. And so third quarter was -- is a different period for us. Lots of things going on to get ready for the season and working with the channel on some different things.

這是羅伯特.我會稍微談一下這一點。具體到巴西和價格，讓我從作物保護開始。本季結束時，我們的價格下降了 10%。但如果你看看今年迄今為止的情況，我們的業績處於中等個位數。所以第三季對我們來說是一個不同的時期。為了為本賽季做好準備，我們正在做很多事情，並與頻道合作做一些不同的事情。

Brazil was down about 18% for the quarter. But we're going to finish up the year back to that mid-single digits for the company. We don't expect a sequential quarter-over-quarter or quarter to quarter, the pricing will be relatively flat.

巴西本季下跌約 18%。但我們將在今年結束時讓公司恢復到中個位數。我們預計環比或環比不會出現環比，定價將相對持平。

And when you think about why, there's a lot of competition going on in Brazil. And in a flat market or a flat to down market. Really, we're looking at this year, a lot of competition for volume coming from all areas, trying to find growth. And so we play. We're trying to hold share. We do the things we need to do that makes sense for our products. I'm not going to comment on what our competition does or doesn't do or their philosophy.

當你思考原因時，你會發現巴西正在發生很多競爭。在平坦的市場或平坦到下跌的市場。確實，我們今年看到來自各個領域的大量銷售競爭，試圖找到成長。我們就這樣玩。我們正在努力保持份額。我們做我們需要做的對我們的產品有意義的事情。我不會評論我們的競爭對手做什麼或不做什麼或他們的理念。

But for us, we're going to continue to work on selling the things that are going to drive value for our business, and that really comes back around our new products and our differentiated products. That's the majority of our growth happening in Q4 and on into the future, you will have seen that these products typically have a premium because of the value that they add on farm. And they're going to continue to grow as well as our biologicals in Brazil.

但對我們來說，我們將繼續致力於銷售能為我們的業務帶來價值的東西，而這真正將圍繞著我們的新產品和差異化產品而回歸。這是我們的大部分成長發生在第四季度和未來，您會發現這些產品通常具有溢價，因為它們為農場增加了價值。它們將和我們在巴西的生物製品一樣繼續成長。

You'll recall that well over 50% of our overall biological business is in Brazil. And so that season is still to happen, and we expect a good quarter out of biologicals down there as well. So short answer is we'll finish up in the mid-single digits for price down for the year, which is about where we're trending overall for the business right now.

您可能還記得，我們​​整體生物業務的 50% 以上都在巴西。因此，那個季節仍然會發生，我們預計那裡的生物製品也將有一個不錯的季度。所以簡短的答案是，我們今年的價格下降將達到中個位數，這就是我們目前業務的整體趨勢。

Maybe, Robert, one other thing to add. When you look at our order book for the fourth quarter, we like our position. We're certainly -- we're north of 50% for our CP book over 60%, 65% for our biologicals book. So we're setting up exactly where we want to be for the fourth quarter. And I think that's all factored into our current thinking.

也許，羅伯特，還需要補充一件事。當你查看我們第四季度的訂單簿時，我們喜歡我們的立場。我們當然－我們的CP書超過了50%，我們的生物書超過了60%，65%。因此，我們正在準確設定第四季的目標。我認為這都是我們目前思考的因素。

Patrick Cunningham, Citi.

派崔克‧坎寧安，花旗銀行。

Hi, good morning. Just based on the last comments, could you help quantify how new products and biologicals have performed year-to-date? And what do you expect for contribution in 2025? And should the sensitivity around that number be similar to what you're expecting for broader crop protection?

嗨，早安。僅根據最後的評論，您能否幫助量化新產品和生物製品今年迄今的表現？您對 2025 年的貢獻有何期望？該數字的敏感性是否應該與您對更廣泛的作物保護的預期相似？

Patrick, this is Robert. I'll start with biologicals. We're 15 months into the acquisition, and this business continues to perform very well. It's serving -- the portfolio is serving as a very good complement to our synthetics business, and it's driving solutions on the farm that we're able to offer to the farmer that's unique to us. So we like how it's playing out.

派崔克，這是羅伯特。我將從生物製品開始。我們的收購已經進行了 15 個月，業務仍然表現良好。它正在服務——該產品組合是我們合成材料業務的一個很好的補充，它正在推動我們能夠為農民提供我們獨特的農場解決方案。所以我們喜歡它的表現。

From an overall for the 2024, we're expecting biologicals to be up double digits EBITDA growth for the year. And so that's going to continue to give us strength. And when you lay that into new products, Q3, we saw about a 20% volume or organic growth in new products. And so these products continue to be -- to perform above market. We expect about mid-single digits growth for the year, and we're continuing to get value out of that. So we're going to finish up the year strong with both of these as we finish out Q4.

從 2024 年的整體情況來看，我們預計今年生物製品的 EBITDA 成長將達到兩位數。這將繼續給我們力量。當你將其納入新產品時，第三季度，我們看到新產品的銷售或有機成長約為 20%。因此，這些產品的表現將持續高於市場水準。我們預計今年將實現中個位數成長，並且我們將繼續從中獲取價值。因此，當我們完成第四季時，我們將在這兩個方面以強勁的表現結束這一年。

And then when you think about 2025 and beyond, and we'll have more to share, of course, at the Investor Day, but these are the -- I think, the growth engines of our CP business, right? Because if you think through the strategy, we're trying to deemphasize the commodity part of the portfolio, really sell differentiated technology. But we believe we've got strong channels to market.

然後，當你想到 2025 年及以後時，我們當然會在投資者日分享更多內容，但我認為這些是我們 CP 業務的成長引擎，對嗎？因為如果你仔細考慮這個策略，我們會試著淡化產品組合中的商品部分，真正銷售差異化技術。但我們相信我們擁有強大的市場管道。

And so these will lead, I think, the growth in terms of volume. They will have a premium, as Robert called out, they're not immune to the market. They'll trade with the market, but they'll always have a premium or less differentiated technology. And we have -- even this year so far, we've had very good demand from a volume perspective on our [Spinosyns] franchise on our new products and on the biologicals, that will carry into '25 and beyond.

因此，我認為這些將導致數量的增長。正如羅伯特所說，他們將獲得溢價，他們無法免受市場的影響。他們將與市場進行交易，但他們將始終擁有優質或差異化較小的技術。即使是今年到目前為止，從數量角度來看，我們對新產品和生物製品的 [Spin​​yns] 特許經營權也有非常好的需求，這種需求將持續到 25 年及以後。

Edlain Rodriguez, Mizuho.

艾德蘭·羅德里格斯，瑞穗。

Thank you. Good morning, everyone. Just a quick question on -- again, on the guidance initial outcome in view for 2025. You've talked about the skew between the low end and high end. But when will you get a better sense of which way the pendulum is swinging.

謝謝。大家早安。我再次簡單問一個關於 2025 年指導初步結果的問題。您已經談到了低端和高端之間的偏差。但什麼時候你才能更了解鐘擺的擺動方向。

And related to that also is again, with all due respect, this is the third time, I think you've lowered your guidance for the year for 2024, and of course, Ag could be very challenging to forecast. The question is like do you think it's fair for people to be asking what gives you confidence and how much confidence should we have in that guidance that you gave for 2025?

與此相關的是，恕我直言，這是第三次，我認為你們已經降低了 2024 年的指導，當然，Ag 的預測可能非常具有挑戰性。問題是，您認為人們問什麼帶給您信心是否公平？

Yes. Good morning, Edlain. Fair question. Absolutely. And if you think about this, right, so we had a '25 framework that we did update earlier this year, and I believe the range was something like (inaudible) mid with margins in that 21% to 23%.

是的。早安，艾德蘭。公平的問題。絕對地。如果你考慮一下這一點，對吧，所以我們有一個 25 框架，我們在今年早些時候更新了，我相信範圍大約是（聽不清楚）中間，利潤率在 21% 到 23% 之間。

And at that point, the reason we had updated that is because our fundamental view on the CP industry had changed, right? We had thought at that point now that the CP industry for 2024 would be in decline. And we've always said that for us to hit certainly the numbers for 2025, we would need to see a return for the industry to grow in the year 2025. And today, we came out with our view that it's going to be flattish. So that's the fundamental change.

那麼，我們之所以進行更新，是因為我們對CP產業的基本看法發生了變化，對嗎？我們當時就認為 2024 年 CP 產業將陷入衰退。我們一直說，要達到 2025 年的目標，我們需要看到該產業在 2025 年實現成長。今天，我們提出了我們的觀點，它將會變得平坦。這就是根本性的改變。

So if you look at the seed business, it's actually almost entirely on plan. And in fact, it's probably trending a little bit ahead, and we are also ahead when it comes to cost productivity. So when I think about how we've done as a company, we've got a lot of things right.

因此，如果你看看種子業務，你會發現它實際上幾乎完全按計劃進行。事實上，它的趨勢可能有點領先，而且在成本生產力方面我們也處於領先地位。因此，當我思考我們作為一家公司的表現時，我們發現很多事情都是正確的。

The seed business is on plan. I think our cost and productivity and our controllables are, but the CP industry has clearly moved against us and everybody else in the industry, and that's had a profound impact on our outlook.

種子業務正在按計劃進行。我認為我們的成本、生產力和可控因素是，但CP產業顯然對我們和產業中的其他人不利，這對我們的前景產生了深遠的影響。

So to your question, how about [3.6 now 4.0, 3.8] our view is still founded on a flat 2025 when it comes to CP. And when will we know? Let's get through this year. We've got a crop to harvest and a crop to put in the ground in Latin America. But we're feeling very good that the seed business is going to continue its journey. The $600 million of gross cost productivity and deflation, I think we're feeling very, very comfortable with. And as I mentioned, we're getting more comfortable that the CP industry is finding some stability finally.

那麼對於你的問題，[3.6 現在 4.0, 3.8] 怎麼樣？ 當談到 CP 時，我們的觀點仍然建立在 2025 年持平的基礎上。我們什麼時候才能知道？讓我們一起度過這一年。在拉丁美洲，我們有農作物要收割，也有農作物要種在地裡。但我們對種子業務將繼續發展感到非常高興。我認為我們對 6 億美元的總成本生產力和通貨緊縮感到非常非常滿意。正如我所提到的，我們對 CP 產業終於找到了一些穩定性感到更加放心。

So it is, I think, a very fair question to ask. All we can do as an organization though is give you what we're thinking and to update you as we learn more. And this is our current view is that the CP industry, if it's flat, will be somewhere between the 3.6% and the 4%. And we're feeling very good about the levers that we have to pull to create value.

所以我認為這是一個非常公平的問題。作為一個組織，我們所能做的就是向您提供我們的想法，並在我們了解更多資訊時向您提供最新資訊。我們目前的觀點是，CP 產業如果持平，將介於 3.6% 和 4% 之間。我們對創造價值所必須利用的槓桿感覺非常好。

Aleksey Yefremov, KeyBanc.

Aleksey Yefremov，KeyBanc。

Hi, good morning, everyone. What did you assume for Argentina planting '25, do you assume any meaningful return on (inaudible) is?

嗨，大家早安。您對阿根廷 25 年的種植有何假設？

Hey, Aleksey, this is Tim. I'll take a shot at that. So we're taking out 20%, so call it from roughly 8 million hectares down to 6.5 million hectares. And for '25 at this point, we're taking a very, let's say, a prudent approach and not assuming a significant increase or return. And why that is, is because of the pressure from the leaf hoppers last year, it's a really difficult environment for farmers to plant into. And it's hard to predict whether that was a 1-year deal or if it's something that we're going to have to deal with going forward.

嘿，阿列克謝，這是提姆。我會嘗試一下。因此，我們將拿出 20%，即從大約 800 萬公頃減少到 650 萬公頃。對於 25 年的這一點，我們正在採取一種非常謹慎的方法，並且不會假設顯著的成長或回報。之所以會這樣，是因為去年葉蟬的壓力，對農民來說，這是一個非常困難的種植環境。很難預測這是否是一項為期一年的協議，或者是否是我們未來必須處理的問題。

And so Chuck share that right now, the populations are moving in the right direction. So that's obviously a positive thing, but we got to track that over the course of the season. Last year, we saw populations really build as you got into the January, February time frame. And so it's going to be really important that we understand before we assume some kind of a big rebound. Hard to do it. It'd be very speculative at this point in time.

所以查克分享說，現在人們正在朝著正確的方向前進。所以這顯然是一件積極的事情，但我們必須在整個賽季中跟踪這一點。去年，隨著進入一月、二月的時間範圍，我們看到人口確實在增加。因此，在我們假設某種大幅反彈之前，了解這一點非常重要。很難做到。此時此刻，這將是非常推測性的。

Bottom line is Argentina is going to remain an important production area for both corn and soybeans. Argentina is one of the three major exporters of corn, and we'll continue to do that. And from an agronomic standpoint, farmers need to be planning corn in that northern area because that rotation between corn and beans is really important.

最重要的是，阿根廷仍將是玉米和大豆的重要產區。阿根廷是三大玉米出口國之一，我們將繼續這樣做。從農藝角度來看，農民需要在北部地區規劃玉米種植，因為玉米和豆類之間的輪作非常重要。

If (inaudible) being this year as a defensive crop on a one year basis, but you can't do that for three years or four years. They're going to end up with some problems. So we're optimistic over the next few years. And for '25, we're assuming essentially a flat market again with '24 and certainly, we're going to be staying close to understand what that opportunity is.

如果（聽不清楚）今年作為一年的防禦性作物，但你不能在三年或四年內這樣做。他們最終會遇到一些問題。因此，我們對未來幾年持樂觀態度。對於 25 年，我們假設 24 年市場基本上持平，當然，我們將密切關注機會是什麼。

Arun Viswanathan, RBC.

阿倫·維斯瓦納坦，加拿大皇家銀行。

Great. Thanks for taking my question. I'll just ask really quickly on the balance sheet. If you guys would consider maybe taking on a little bit of debt. I know that obviously, interest rates would play into that, but maybe you can just give us some updated thoughts on your views there? Thanks.

偉大的。感謝您提出我的問題。我會很快詢問資產負債表。如果你們願意考慮承擔一點債務。我知道利率顯然會影響這一點，但也許您可以就您的觀點向我們提供一些最新的想法？謝謝。

I think as we sit here today, our views have been consistent. I think when you look at the amount of cash that we generate, the amount that we put back in the business versus giving back in dividends and buybacks. We don't see any meaningful change going forward, certainly not in the '25 outlook, and not in the '25 to '27 outlook.

我認為，當我們今天坐在這裡時，我們的觀點是一致的。我認為，當你看看我們產生的現金數量、我們投入業務的金額與回饋股利和回購的金額。我們認為未來不會發生任何有意義的變化，尤其是 25 年的前景，以及 25 至 27 年的前景。

Yes. And Arun, maybe just a couple of other thoughts. So feeling good about the guide in terms of free cash flow, $1.5 billion to $2 billion. So the company is generating, I think, very good cash and the conversion is improving from EBITDA. We do recognize we have a strategic asset in our balance sheet, investment-grade rating. I think David just shared our philosophy really hasn't changed. If you think through even this year, we're going to be approximately $1.5 billion of returning capital to shareholders through buybacks and dividends. So that's a big number.

是的。阿倫，也許只是一些其他的想法。因此，就自由現金流（15 億至 20 億美元）而言，該指南感覺良好。因此，我認為該公司正在產生非常好的現金，而 EBITDA 的轉換率正在提高。我們確實認識到我們的資產負債表中擁有一項策略資產，即投資級評級。我認為大衛剛剛分享的我們的理念確實沒有改變。如果仔細想想，即使是今年，我們也將透過回購和股息向股東返還約 15 億美元的資本。所以這是一個很大的數字。

We want to be able to invest for growth inside the business. And we've got, I think, a lot of great things happening both in the seed and CP portfolio. And we've got a few other things that we'd like to share with you at the Investor Day. So we'll hold the rest of the conversation. But it is a good position to have, and I think it is one of the things that sets Corteva apart.

我們希望能夠為業務內部的成長進行投資。我認為，我們在種子和 CP 投資組合中都發生了很多偉大的事情。我們還有一些其他事情想在投資者日與您分享。所以我們將繼續進行剩下的談話。但這是一個很好的位置，我認為這是 Corteva 與眾不同的原因之一。

That concludes our Q&A session. I will now turn the conference back over to Kim Booth for closing remarks.

我們的問答環節到此結束。現在我將把會議轉回金·布斯 (Kim Booth) 致閉幕詞。

Great. That concludes today's call. We thank you for joining and for your interest in Corteva. And we hope you have a safe and wonderful day.

偉大的。今天的電話會議到此結束。我們感謝您的加入以及對 Corteva 的興趣。我們希望您度過安全美好的一天。

Ladies and gentlemen, that concludes today's call. Thank you all for joining. You may now disconnect.

女士們、先生們，今天的電話會議到此結束。感謝大家的加入。您現在可以斷開連線。