CareTrust REIT Inc (CTRE) 2024 Q4 法說會逐字稿

  • 公布時間
    25/02/13
  • 本季實際 EPS
    0.32 美元
  • EPS 比市場預期高
    +3.23 %
  • EPS 年成長
    +45.45 %

完整原文

使用警語:中文譯文來源為 Google 翻譯,僅供參考,實際內容請以英文原文為主

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Thank you for standing by.

    感謝您的支持。

  • My name is Karen, and I will be your conference operator today.

    我的名字是凱倫 (Karen),今天我將擔任您的會議主持人。

  • At this time, I would like to welcome everyone to the CareTrust REIT fourth-quarter 2024 earnings conference call.

    現在,我歡迎大家參加 CareTrust REIT 2024 年第四季財報電話會議。

  • (Operator Instructions)

    (操作員指令)

  • I will now turn the call over to Lauren Beale, CareTrust's Chief Accounting Officer.

    現在我將把電話轉給 CareTrust 的首席會計官 Lauren Beale。

  • The floor is yours.

    現在請您發言。

  • Lauren Beale - Chief Accounting Officer

    Lauren Beale - Chief Accounting Officer

  • Thank you, and welcome to CareTrust REIT's fourth-quarter 2024 earnings call.

    謝謝,歡迎參加 CareTrust REIT 2024 年第四季財報電話會議。

  • We will make forward-looking statements today based on management's current expectations, including statements regarding future financial performance, dividends, acquisitions, investments, financing plans, business strategies and growth prospects.

    我們今天將根據管理層目前的預期做出前瞻性陳述,包括有關未來財務業績、股息、收購、投資、融資計劃、業務策略和成長前景的陳述。

  • These forward-looking statements are subject to risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results to materially differ from our expectations.

    這些前瞻性陳述受風險和不確定性的影響,可能導致實際結果與我們的預期有重大差異。

  • These risks are discussed in CareTrust REIT's most recent Form 10-K and 10-Q filings with the SEC.

    CareTrust REIT 在向美國證券交易委員會提交的最新 10-K 表和 10-Q 表中討論了這些風險。

  • We do not undertake a duty to update or revise these statements, except as required by law.

    除非法律要求,我們不承擔更新或修改這些聲明的義務。

  • During the call the company will reference non-GAAP metrics such as EBITDA, FFO, and FAD or FAD.

    在通話中,公司將參考非 GAAP 指標,例如 EBITDA、FFO 和 FAD 或 FAD。

  • A reconciliation of these measures to the most comparable GAAP financial measures is available in our earnings press release and Q4 2024 non-GAAP reconciliations that are available on the Investor Relations section of CareTrust's website at www.caretrustreit.com. A replay of this call will also be available on the website for a limited period.

    這些指標與最具可比性的 GAAP 財務指標的對帳可在我們的收益新聞稿和 2024 年第四季非 GAAP 對帳中找到,可在 CareTrust 網站 www.caretrustreit.com 的投資者關係部分找到。此通話的重播也將在網站上限時提供。

  • On the call this morning are Dave Sedgwick, President and Chief Executive Officer; Bill Wagner, Chief Financial Officer; and James Callister, Chief Investment Officer.

    參加今天早上電話會議的有總裁兼執行長 Dave Sedgwick;比爾‧瓦格納 (Bill Wagner),財務長;以及首席投資長詹姆斯·卡利斯特(James Callister)。

  • I'll now turn the call over to Dave Sedgwick, CareTrust REIT's President and CEO.

    現在我將電話轉給 CareTrust REIT 總裁兼執行長 Dave Sedgwick。

  • Dave?

    戴夫?

  • David Sedgwick - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

    David Sedgwick - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Thank you, and good morning, everyone, and thank you for joining us as we kick off what we hope to be another very strong year at CareTrust.

    謝謝大家,早安,謝謝大家加入我們,我們希望 CareTrust 又能迎來非常強勁的一年。

  • It's worth stepping back to consider the broader macro environment.

    值得我們回顧一下更廣泛的宏觀環境。

  • A couple of years ago when the Fed raised interest rates more aggressively than any time in our country's history, financial markets, and the REIT sector, in particular, face serious challenges.

    幾年前,聯準會以比我國歷史上任何時候都更積極的幅度升息,金融市場,尤其是房地產投資信託基金 (REIT) 行業面臨著嚴峻的挑戰。

  • However, because we had driven down leverage and built up our dry powder, we were uniquely positioned to capitalize on a window of opportunity that opened and continues open to us today.

    然而,由於我們降低了槓桿率並累積了足夠的資金,我們處於獨特的位置,可以利用已經向我們敞開、並且持續開放的機會之窗。

  • The elevated rates drove many banks and investors to the sidelines and drove more and larger deal flow our way.

    利率上升使得許多銀行和投資者紛紛離場,引發更多、更大規模的交易流。

  • We maximize the opportunity by recalibrating the team, deepening strategic relationships and working flat out, resulting in $1.5 billion of investments, essentially match funded with $1.5 billion of equity issuance from both the ATM and a follow-on offering.

    我們透過重新調整團隊、深化策略關係和全力以赴地工作來最大限度地利用這一機會,最終獲得了 15 億美元的投資,基本上與 ATM 和後續發行中的 15 億美元股票發行相匹配。

  • The full effect of last year's activities will result in meaningful FFO per share growth this year without any new investments.

    去年活動的全部效果將導致今年每股 FFO 實現有意義的成長,而無需任何新的投資。

  • Today, we are one of the rare REITs that is largely indifferent to a [hair] for longer outlook.

    如今,我們是少數對長期前景漠不關心的房地產投資信託基金 (REIT) 之一。

  • If REITs come down, we will certainly benefit.

    如果房地產投資信託基金 (REIT) 下跌,我們肯定會受益。

  • But if they don't, our balance sheet, our portfolio, our access to capital, the opportunity set in front of us and our team are all in a stronger position today than we were going into 2024.

    但即使他們不這樣做,我們的資產負債表、我們的投資組合、我們的資本獲取管道、我們面前的機會以及我們的團隊今天的地位都會比 2024 年更加強大。

  • Our mindset to maximize the window of opportunity open to us has not changed.

    我們最大限度地利用機會的思維方式沒有改變。

  • Neither has our underwriting discipline that has made our portfolio so secure and resilient.

    我們的承保紀律也沒有使我們的投資組合如此安全和有彈性。

  • We do not grow for the sake of growth.

    我們不是為了成長而成長。

  • We remain laser-focused on long-term FFO per share growth.

    我們仍專注於長期每股 FFO 成長。

  • For us, that will always only be achieved by matching the right operator for the right opportunities and setting them up for success.

    對我們來說,這始終只能透過為合適的運營商匹配合適的機會並為他們創造成功才能實現。

  • In our view, the right operators are those who first take care of their employees so that their employees can in turn take care of their residents and patients and loved ones.

    我們認為,合適的經營者是那些首先照顧好員工的人,這樣他們的員工才能反過來照顧他們的居民、病人和親人。

  • With respect to those operators in our portfolio, exceptional lease coverages overall at 2.82 times EBITDARM and 2.21 times EBITDAR.

    對於我們投資組合中的這些業者而言,總體而言,出色的租賃覆蓋率為 EBITDARM 的 2.82 倍和 EBITDAR 的 2.21 倍。

  • Our top 10 tenants, which account for approximately 80% of triple net revenue are covering at 3.02 times EBITDARM and 2.37 times EBITDAR.

    我們的前十大租戶佔三重淨收入的約 80%,覆蓋率為 EBITDARM 的 3.02 倍和 EBITDAR 的 2.37 倍。

  • Furthermore, looking at the many acquisitions made last year, the early performance is in line with expectations.

    此外,從去年進行的多次收購來看,早期的表現符合預期。

  • The operating environment in general continues to stabilize with most parts of the portfolio at or ahead of prepandemic occupancy, skilled mix and coverage.

    整體而言,經營環境持續保持穩定,大部分投資組合的入住率、技術組合和覆蓋率均達到或超過疫情前的水準。

  • Of course, there's some noise and speculation a new administration means for skilled nursing.

    當然,對於新管理對專業護理的意義,存在一些爭議和猜測。

  • It's too early to be definitive but our conversation with policymakers, lobbyists, operators, all leads us to believe that the minimum staffing rule will be reversed and that Medicaid and Medicare continue to be unchanged as the cornerstones of health care in general and skilled nursing in particular.

    現在下結論還為時過早,但我們與政策制定者、遊說者、運營商的對話都讓我們相信,最低人員配備規則將被扭轉,而醫療補助和醫療保險將繼續保持不變,作為一般醫療保健和特別是專業護理的基石。

  • Our operators continue to post star ratings and quality measures compared to the industry at large and to their respective state averages as well.

    我們的營運商持續發布星級評定和品質指標,並與整個行業以及各自州的平均水平進行比較。

  • We count our truly blessed to be able to associate with some of the best operators in the country, and we can't thank them enough for all they do for their employees, patients and residents.

    我們非常幸運能夠與國內一些最好的營運商合作,我們非常感謝他們為員工、患者和居民所做的一切。

  • Not to mention the security and tailwinds they provide us and our investors.

    更不用說他們為我們和我們的投資者提供的安全和順風。

  • With this solid foundation, we are poised for another year of significant external growth if deal flow is even close to last year.

    有了這個堅實的基礎,如果交易量接近去年的水平,我們將迎來另一年顯著的外部成長。

  • On January 1, we effectively woke up to double-digit FFO per share growth on a run rate basis without accounting for any additional investments, but we are absolutely not resting on last year's records.

    1 月 1 日,我們醒來後發現,在不考慮任何額外投資的情況下,按運行率計算,每股 FFO 增長了兩位數,但我們絕對不會停留在去年的記錄上。

  • We continue to execute our long-term strategy and zealously pursue investments that will expand and diversify the portfolio.

    我們繼續執行我們的長期策略,並積極尋求能夠擴大和多樣化投資組合的投資。

  • James will provide color on the pipeline and a broader opportunity set in front of us.

    詹姆斯將為我們介紹管道的情況以及擺在我們面前的更廣闊的機會。

  • I'll just say this, I've never been more excited about our current trajectory and potential for growth.

    我只想說,我從未對我們目前的發展軌跡和成長潛力如此興奮。

  • If you liked our story last year, I think you're going to love Chapter 2025.

    如果您喜歡我們去年的故事,我想您一定會喜歡第 2025 章。

  • James?

    詹姆斯?

  • James Callister - Executive Vice President, Chief Investment Officer, Secretary

    James Callister - Executive Vice President, Chief Investment Officer, Secretary

  • Good morning, everyone.

    大家早安。

  • During 2024, CareTrust completed new investments totaling just over $1.5 billion at an estimated stabilized yield of 9.7%.

    2024 年,CareTrust 完成的新投資總額略高於 15 億美元,預計穩定收益率為 9.7%。

  • These investments were reflective of a strong and consistent pipeline of activity throughout the year.

    這些投資體現了全年強勁且持續的活動勢頭。

  • The investments range in size from one facility to 46 facilities from less than $5 million to over $450 million from real estate acquisitions to acquisition financing, [mezz] lending and preferred equity investments.

    投資規模從 1 個設施到 46 個設施不等,投資金額從不到 500 萬美元到超過 4.5 億美元不等,涉及房地產收購、收購融資、[夾層] 貸款和優先股投資。

  • We finished off the year with [what is] for us an unprecedented quarter of investment activity with every department in the company, putting an impressive effort to close approximately $700 million of new investments at an estimated stabilized yield of 9.9%.

    我們以前所未有的投資活動結束了這一季度,公司每個部門都做出了令人印象深刻的努力,完成了約 7 億美元的新投資,預計穩定收益率為 9.9%。

  • During the quarter, we added 81 triple net lease to the portfolio along with several new operators.

    在本季度,我們與幾家新營運商一起向投資組合中增加了 81 家三重淨租賃公司。

  • Subsequent to the fourth quarter, we have closed on approximately $26.8 million of additional investments at a yield of 10.6%.

    第四季之後,我們完成了約 2,680 萬美元的額外投資,收益率為 10.6%。

  • These investments include the acquisition of the 28th and final facility related to the large Tennessee transaction previously announced in December at an initial contractual lease yield to CareTrust of approximately 9%.

    這些投資包括收購第 28 個也是最後一個設施,該設施與去年 12 月宣布的田納西州大型交易有關,初始合約租賃收益率為 CareTrust 約 9%。

  • We also funded approximately $6.4 million under a mezzanine loan related to a small portfolio of skilled nursing facilities in Maryland at an initial yield of 13.2%.

    我們也為馬裡蘭州一小部分專業護理機構提供了約 640 萬美元的夾層貸款,初始收益率為 13.2%。

  • Our investment pipeline moving forward continues to be robust as we look to continue 2024's momentum into 2025.

    我們未來的投資管道將繼續保持強勁,我們期待將 2024 年的勢頭延續到 2025 年。

  • The reloaded pipeline today sits at approximately $325 million of real estate acquisitions and consists of some singles and doubles as well as some midsized portfolio transactions.

    如今,重新加載的管道大約有 3.25 億美元的房地產收購,包括一些單一和雙重以及一些中型投資組合交易。

  • Not included in our quarter pipeline are a couple of larger portfolio opportunities.

    我們的季度計劃中未包括幾個較大的投資組合機會。

  • The pipeline primarily consists of skilled nursing but also includes some seniors housing.

    該管道主要包括專業護理,但也包括一些老年人住房。

  • Please remember that when we quote our pipe, we only quote deals that we are actively pursuing under our current underwriting standards.

    請記住,當我們對管道進行報價時,我們僅對我們根據當前承保標準積極尋求的交易進行報價。

  • And then only if we have a reasonable level of confidence that we can lock them up and close them within the next 12 months.

    而且只有當我們有相當的信心可以在未來 12 個月內鎖定並關閉它們時,我們才會這樣做。

  • We continue to look at a healthy flow of marketed opportunities as well as off-market deals brought to us by existing operators and other relationships, including relationships garnered through our decision over the past couple of years to lend with a purpose.

    我們將繼續關注現有營運商和其他關係為我們帶來的健康的行銷機會和場外交易,包括過去幾年我們透過有目的的貸款決策而建立的關係。

  • Our primary focus has always been and will remain on sourcing and executing on accretive real estate acquisition opportunities.

    我們的主要關注點一直是並將繼續是尋找和執行增值的房地產收購機會。

  • With that said, we expect to continue to receive inbound requests for loans and will selectively pursue lending opportunities that we feel will lead to attractive real estate acquisitions in the future, best-in-class operators.

    話雖如此,我們預計將繼續收到貸款請求,並將有選擇地尋求我們認為將在未來帶來有吸引力的房地產收購的貸款機會,即一流的運營商。

  • As we turn to 2025, a consistent flow of inbound opportunities, both marketed and off-market has us feeling highly optimistic with our built-up team.

    當我們展望 2025 年時,無論是行銷還是場外行銷,源源不絕的入站機會都讓我們對我們已建立的團隊感到非常樂觀。

  • Our 2025 investment activity will continue to build on last year's results.

    我們的 2025 年投資活動將繼續以去年的成果為基礎。

  • The combination of our access to capital, a focused on accretive transactions with quality offering and the strong ongoing demand for post-acute and senior care provide an ample runway for pipelines of future growth during the coming year.

    我們的資本管道、專注於提供優質服務的增值交易以及對急性後期和老年護理的持續強勁需求,為來年的未來增長提供了充足的跑道。

  • With that, I'll turn it over to Bill.

    說完這些,我會把話題交給比爾。

  • William Wagner - Chief Financial Officer, Principal Accounting Officer, Treasurer

    William Wagner - Chief Financial Officer, Principal Accounting Officer, Treasurer

  • Thanks, James.

    謝謝,詹姆斯。

  • For the quarter, normalized FFO increased 68.1% over the prior year order to $72.9 million and normalized FAD increased 63.7% to $74.3 million.

    本季度,標準化 FFO 較上年同期成長 68.1% 至 7,290 萬美元,標準化 FAD 成長 63.7% 至 7,430 萬美元。

  • On a per share basis, normalized FFO increased $0.04 or 11.1% to $0.40 per share and normalized FAD also increased $0.04 to 10.8% to $0.41 per share.

    以每股計算,標準化 FFO 增加 0.04 美元或 11.1%,至每股 0.40 美元,標準化 FAD 也增加 0.04 美元或 10.8%,至每股 0.41 美元。

  • During the fourth quarter and in order to match fund our previously announced robust pipeline, we closed on an overnight offering, raising net proceeds of $487 million at $32 per share, which prefunded the November investment closings.

    在第四季度,為了配合我們先前宣布的強勁投資管道,我們完成了隔夜發行,以每股 32 美元的價格籌集了 4.87 億美元的淨收益,為 11 月的投資收尾提供了預先資金。

  • As of today, we have $180 million of cash after funding those investments and after funding January and February investments and after receiving the tenant purchase option exercise that closed on February 1 of $44 million and also after making our dividend payment, which is now roughly $55 million per quarter.

    截至今天,在完成這些投資、完成 1 月份和 2 月份的投資、收到 2 月 1 日完成的 4,400 萬美元的租戶購買選擇權行使以及支付股息(目前每季度約為 5,500 萬美元)後,我們擁有 1.8 億美元現金。

  • In yesterday's press release, we initiated guidance for the year with normalized FFO per share of $1.68 to $1.72 and for normalized FAD per share of $1.72 to $1.76. This guidance includes all investments made to date, a diluted weighted average share count of 187.5 million shares and also relies on the following assumptions: one, no additional investments nor any further debt or equity issuances this year; two, CPI rent escalations of 2.5%.

    在昨天的新聞稿中,我們啟動了年度指導,其中標準化 FFO 每股 1.68 美元至 1.72 美元,標準化 FAD 每股 1.72 美元至 1.76 美元。該指引包括迄今為止的所有投資,稀釋加權平均股數為 1.875 億股,同時依賴以下假設:一、今年沒有額外投資,也沒有進一步發行債務或股權;二、CPI房租上漲2.5%。

  • Our total cash rental revenues for the year are projected to be approximately $279 million.

    我們今年的現金租金總收入預計約為 2.79 億美元。

  • Not included in this number is the amortization of lease intangibles that will total about $3.5 million but this will be in the rental revenue number as required by GAAP.

    該數字中不包括租賃無形資產的攤銷,總計約 350 萬美元,但根據 GAAP 的要求,這將包含在租金收入數字中。

  • Three, interest income from financing receivables of $11.5 million.

    三、融資應收款利息收入1150萬美元。

  • Included in this number is $9 million of cash and $2.5 million of noncash revenue for GAAP purposes that is subtracted in the FAD reconciliation.

    該數字中包含 900 萬美元現金和 250 萬美元非現金收入(出於 GAAP 目的),這些收入已在 FAD 對帳中減去。

  • Four, interest income of approximately $84 million.

    四、利息收入約8400萬美元。

  • The $84 million has made $76 million from our loan portfolio and $8 million is from cash invested in money market funds.

    這 8,400 萬美元中有 7,600 萬美元來自我們的貸款組合,800 萬美元來自投資於貨幣市場基金的現金。

  • Five, interest expense of approximately $21.3 million.

    五、利息支出約2130萬美元。

  • Interest expense also includes roughly $4 million of amortization of deferred financing fees; and six, G&A expense of approximately $30 million to $37 million and includes about $11.7 million of deferred stock comp.

    利息費用還包括約 400 萬美元的遞延融資費用攤提;六是一般及行政開支約 3,000 萬至 3,700 萬美元,其中包括約 1,170 萬美元的遞延股票補償。

  • This guidance represents a range of FFO per share growth of 12% to 14.6% and on FAD per share of 11.8% to 14.4% without any additional investments.

    該指引表明,在沒有任何額外投資的情況下,每股 FFO 成長率為 12% 至 14.6%,每股 FAD 成長率為 11.8% 至 14.4%。

  • Our liquidity continues to remain strong.

    我們的流動性持續保持強勁。

  • In addition to cash on hand, we have $1.2 billion available under our new revolver, which closed in December.

    除了庫存現金外,我們在 12 月結清的新循環信貸中還有 12 億美元可用資金。

  • Leverage continues at historic lows with a net debt-normalized EBITDA ratio of 0.5 times.

    槓桿率繼續處於歷史低位,淨債務標準化的 EBITDA 比率為 0.5 倍。

  • Our net debt to enterprise value was 3.5% as of quarter end and we achieved a fixed charge coverage ratio of 17 times.

    截至季末,我們的淨負債與企業價值比為 3.5%,固定費用覆蓋率達 17 倍。

  • Lastly, towards the end of Q4 and into Q1, we have seen the cost of our equity increase while the cost of our new revolver has decreased to where may make sense to begin utilizing our new large credit facility and then decide how we want to term out those draws.

    最後,在第四季末和第一季開始時,我們看到股權成本增加,而新循環信貸的成本已經下降到可以開始利用我們的新大型信貸額度並決定如何安排這些提款的合理水平。

  • We still love having all options on the table with respect to financing a robust pipeline.

    我們仍然樂意在為強大的管道提供融資方面擁有所有的選擇。

  • And with that, I'll turn it back to Dave.

    說完這些,我就把話題轉回給戴夫。

  • David Sedgwick - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

    David Sedgwick - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Great.

    偉大的。

  • Well, we hope the report has been helpful and happy to take your questions now.

    好吧,我們希望這份報告對您有所幫助,並且很高興現在回答您的問題。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • (Operator Instructions) Wes Golladay, Baird.

    (操作員指令)Wes Golladay,Baird。

  • Wes Golladay - Analyst

    Wes Golladay - Analyst

  • Looking at last year, was a big driver of the investment activity, really strong year.

    回顧去年,這是投資活動的一大推動力,確實強勁的一年。

  • When you look at the pipeline now going forward, do you see that to broaden out and more specifically, the portfolios that made the larger portfolios would those be with new operators?

    當您展望現在的管道時,您是否認為需要擴大,更具體地說,組成更大投資組合的投資組合是否會由新的營運商組成?

  • David Sedgwick - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

    David Sedgwick - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Yes.

    是的。

  • I think this -- I think what you'll see this year is what you've seen from us in the past, which is expanding with existing operators and probably adding some new ones.

    我認為今年您將看到的與我們過去看到的一樣,即與現有運營商一起擴張,並可能增加一些新的運營商。

  • With respect to large portfolios, those are kind of too early to really talk about at this point.

    就大型投資組合而言,現在談論這些還為時過早。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Farrell Granath, Bank of America

    法雷爾·格拉納斯(Farrell Granath),美國銀行

  • Farrell Granath - Analyst

    Farrell Granath - Analyst

  • I had another question about PACS going forward.

    我對 PACS 的未來還有另一個疑問。

  • I was wondering if you could make some commentary on your conviction as well as is there any bad debt associated within your guidance either to -- either offset if there were to be an outcome on their current situation?

    我想知道您是否可以對您的信念發表一些評論,以及在您的指導中是否存在任何相關的壞賬,或者如果他們目前的情況有結果,是否可以抵消?

  • David Sedgwick - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

    David Sedgwick - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • No, there's no bad debt at all in our guidance, and we certainly don't expect any from PACs or any of our operators this year.

    不,我們的預期中根本沒有壞賬,而且我們今年當然也不期望 PAC 或任何運營商出現任何壞賬。

  • And so with respect to tax, it's too early to really make any comments before they are able to release their results.

    因此,就稅收而言,在他們公佈結果之前,現在發表任何評論還為時過早。

  • So we'll wait for that.

    所以我們會等待。

  • And which just point you to the exceptional lease coverage that we have in place with them and hope to hear them soon.

    這只是向您指出我們與他們簽訂的卓越租賃保險,並希望很快收到他們的回覆。

  • Farrell Granath - Analyst

    Farrell Granath - Analyst

  • Great.

    偉大的。

  • And just one more for me.

    對我來說還剩一個。

  • Just in terms of your pipeline, where are you seeing cap rates either shift?

    就您的管道而言,您看到資本化率發生了哪些變化?

  • And are you seeing any compression going forward?

    您是否看到了任何未來的壓縮?

  • William Wagner - Chief Financial Officer, Principal Accounting Officer, Treasurer

    William Wagner - Chief Financial Officer, Principal Accounting Officer, Treasurer

  • No, cap rates is really staying where they always have for skilled nursing in the 12.5 to 13.5, I would say somewhere in there and it remains consistent with yields and somewhere in the 9 to 10 range. on seniors housing, maybe a little bit of compression, but nothing that's all that notable at this time.

    不,資本化率實際上一直保持在 12.5 到 13.5 的水平,對於專業護理來說,我想說在這個水平的某個地方,並且它與收益率保持一致,在 9 到 10 的某個範圍內。對於老年人住房,可能會有一點壓縮,但目前還不是什麼值得注意的事情。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • John Kilichowski, Wells Fargo.

    富國銀行的約翰‧基利喬斯基 (John Kilichowski)。

  • John Kilichowski - Analyst

    John Kilichowski - Analyst

  • Maybe Bill, if we could start with your last comment that you made on the call before we turn it over to Q&A.

    也許比爾,在我們進入問答環節之前,我們可以先談談你在電話會議上提出的最後一條評論。

  • You said your cost of debt is becoming a little bit more attractive here and that cost of equity has creeped up.

    您說過,您的債務成本在這裡變得更具吸引力,股權成本也已上升。

  • Could you give us some tails on the actual numbers around the calculus that -- of what you're looking at here and maybe a more definitive answer, so we could understand in our models, how you're thinking about it?

    您能否為我們提供一些有關微積分的實際數字——您在這裡看到的以及可能更明確的答案,以便我們可以在我們的模型中了解您是如何考慮它的?

  • William Wagner - Chief Financial Officer, Principal Accounting Officer, Treasurer

    William Wagner - Chief Financial Officer, Principal Accounting Officer, Treasurer

  • Sure.

    當然。

  • Well, I'll begin with, we have a stated range of net debt to EBITDA of 4 to 5 times.

    嗯,首先,我們規定的淨債務與 EBITDA 比率為 4 到 5 倍。

  • Obviously, if we draw the revolver, we have a long way to go to get to that range.

    顯然,如果我們拔出左輪手槍,我們還有很長的路要走才能到達那個範圍。

  • I think depending upon our investment pipeline, the quoted pipe and then call it the funnel to the pipeline.

    我認為這取決於我們的投資管道,報價的管道,然後稱之為管道漏斗。

  • It all depends on how that investments flow as to how we will either use our revolver or issue equity under our ATM.

    這一切都取決於投資如何流動,取決於我們如何使用循環信貸或如何在 ATM 下發行股票。

  • If we see a lot of deals at yields that, call it, what they were last year.

    如果我們看到許多交易的殖利率與去年的殖利率相同。

  • I still think it makes sense to use to fund using equity.

    我仍然認為利用股權融資是有意義的。

  • But again, it's a decision that is based on what we see beyond our quoted pipe.

    但同樣,這個決定是基於我們對報價管道之外情況的觀察而做出的。

  • John Kilichowski - Analyst

    John Kilichowski - Analyst

  • Got it.

    知道了。

  • And then maybe if I might jump over to Medicaid here.

    然後也許我可以跳到醫療補助。

  • And Dave, you made this comment earlier where there's a great sense of confidence that the discussions around Medicaid there or Medicaid cuts and Medicare fraud investigations won't hit you all.

    戴夫,您之前說過,您非常有信心,有關醫療補助的討論或醫療補助削減以及醫療保險詐欺調查不會對您所有人造成影響。

  • So maybe more on the Medicaid side, what gives you the confidence to say that?

    所以也許更多是從醫療補助方面來說,是什麼讓您有信心這麼說呢?

  • And if there were to be cuts, where do you think they would be?

    如果需要削減,您認為會削減到哪裡?

  • And again, why do you think that they would not sort of touch the SNF space.

    再說一遍,你為什麼認為他們不會觸及 SNF 領域?

  • David Sedgwick - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

    David Sedgwick - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • It's really just too early to be, like I said in my prepared remarks, very definitive on it.

    正如我在準備好的發言中所說的那樣,現在下結論還為時過早。

  • You -- if you read what -- how speaker Johnson said just a couple of days ago, and you take them at his word, then and what President Trump has recently said about Medicaid I think we would say we'd have more reason to believe that it will not be touched than it would be.

    如果您讀過幾天前議長約翰遜所說的話,並且相信他的話,那麼,如果您讀過川普總統最近關於醫療補助的言論,我想我們會說,我們有更多的理由相信,它不會受到影響。

  • Speaker Johnson, just Tuesday said Medicaid has never been on the chopping block and that they're just looking for fraud, waste and abuse, which, of course, we would applaud as well.

    議長約翰遜週二剛剛表示,醫療補助計劃從未被取消過,他們只是在尋找欺詐、浪費和濫用行為,當然,我們也會對此表示讚賞。

  • They have -- there's bipartisan support for Medicaid as it is today and you have a Trump administration who in the first administration was incredibly supportive to the skilled nursing space.

    如今,兩黨都支持醫療補助計劃,而川普政府在第一屆政府中也大力支持專業護理領域。

  • And we expect that same type of understanding of the importance of Medicaid and the bipartisan support for it to continue.

    我們期望,人們能夠繼續同樣地理解醫療補助的重要性,並繼續得到兩黨的共同支持。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Austin Wurschmidt, KeyBanc Capital Markets.

    KeyBanc 資本市場部的 Austin Wurschmidt。

  • Austin Wurschmidt - Analyst

    Austin Wurschmidt - Analyst

  • Bill, just want to go back to your answer to the last question and also your comment in the prepared remarks about the source of funding kind of will depend on the pipeline in front of you.

    比爾,我只想回到你對最後一個問題的回答,以及你在準備好的評論中關於資金來源的評論,這將取決於你面前的管道。

  • But the pipeline today at $325 million is, say, somewhat larger than maybe the average it was at various periods last year points in time and the team still seems very bullish on opportunities ahead.

    但如今 3.25 億美元的資金管道,可能比去年不同時期的平均資金管道要多一些,而且該團隊似乎仍然對未來的機會非常樂觀。

  • But mean should we take the comments about -- it may make sense to use the credit facility in the near term and term that out as any sense that there's an air pocket in deal activity immediately in front of you and then you'll take it in time as the year progresses and you have a little better visibility?

    但是,我們是否應該接受這樣的評論——在短期內使用信貸工具可能是有意義的,並且認為在你面前的交易活動中存在空當,然後隨著時間的推移,你會及時利用它,你會有更好的可見性?

  • William Wagner - Chief Financial Officer, Principal Accounting Officer, Treasurer

    William Wagner - Chief Financial Officer, Principal Accounting Officer, Treasurer

  • Well, as it relates to the quoted pipe of $300 million-plus.

    嗯,因為這與報價3億多美元的管道有關。

  • First, we'll use cash on hand.

    首先,我們將使用庫存現金。

  • So that's going to take out a large portion of that.

    因此這將消耗掉很大一部分。

  • I don't think we see right now any care pockets in our investment pipeline.

    我認為,目前我們還沒有在投資管道中看到任何醫療護理領域。

  • It continues as it did last year to replenish.

    它像去年一樣繼續補充。

  • So that gives us -- so that causes us pause each time we go to sign up a deal as to how we want to invest it -- how we want to fund it.

    所以,每次我們去簽署協議時,我們都要停下來思考如何投資,如何為其提供資金。

  • Right now, we do like the price of our equity, and I would say we would continue to fund using equity but having that revolver come down in pricing relative to the cost of our equity causes us a little more pause unlike last year to possibly maybe use that to fund them.

    目前,我們確實喜歡我們的股權價格,我想說我們會繼續使用股權進行融資,但是與去年不同,循環信貸的價格相對於我們的股權成本下降,導致我們稍微停下來,可能用它來為他們提供資金。

  • Austin Wurschmidt - Analyst

    Austin Wurschmidt - Analyst

  • That's helpful.

    這很有幫助。

  • And then maybe just for the team or whomever, does the fluctuations in your stock price?

    那麼可能只是對於團隊或任何人來說,你的股票價格會波動嗎?

  • I mean, you referenced you still like the cost of the equity does that change how aggressive you'd be on more of the, call them, value-add investment or where you were willing to maybe take a lower initial lease yield with potential upside in the coming years.

    我的意思是,您提到您仍然喜歡股權成本,這是否會改變您對增值投資的積極性,或者您是否願意接受較低的初始租賃收益率,並在未來幾年獲得潛在的上升空間。

  • Does that sort of change the sandbox, if you will, that you're playing in, on the types of deals that are attractive to you today?

    如果您願意的話,這是否會改變您所處的沙盒,改變目前對您有吸引力的交易類型?

  • David Sedgwick - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

    David Sedgwick - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • No, it doesn't.

    不,不是的。

  • I think we underwrite each deal on its own, and we get the right risk-adjusted returns that the deal presents to us.

    我認為我們對每筆交易都進行單獨承銷,並獲得交易給我們帶來的正確的風險調整回報。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Michael Carroll, RBC Capital Markets.

    加拿大皇家銀行資本市場 (RBC Capital Markets) 的 Michael Carroll。

  • Michael Carroll - Analyst

    Michael Carroll - Analyst

  • Just talking about, I guess, deal volume, I mean, how should we think about the cadence of the overall investment activity?

    我猜只是談論交易量,我的意思是,我們該如何看待整體投資活動的節奏?

  • It looks like the pipeline today is fairly similar to what it was at the end of 2024.

    看起來今天的管道與 2024 年底的管道非常相似。

  • Is that just due to like normal seasonal patterns of sellers trying to rush to sell before the end of the year?

    這是否只是因為賣家試圖在年底前急於出售,這是正常的季節性模式?

  • Or has there been a positive activity due to the macro uncertainty?

    或是由於宏觀不確定性而出現了積極的活動?

  • I mean, how should we think about that cadence over the last two months or so?

    我的意思是,我們該如何看待過去兩個月左右的節奏?

  • James Callister - Executive Vice President, Chief Investment Officer, Secretary

    James Callister - Executive Vice President, Chief Investment Officer, Secretary

  • Yes, Mike, I'll take this.

    是的,麥克,我接受這個。

  • This is James.

    這是詹姆斯。

  • I mean I don't think there's been a pause in the cadence.

    我的意思是,我認為節奏並沒有暫停。

  • I don't think that we see much of a change in deal flow.

    我認為我們不會看到交易流程發生太大的變化。

  • It still remains healthy.

    它仍然保持健康。

  • We still see deals coming in really weekly.

    我們仍然每週都能看到有交易發生。

  • So I think that, if anything, you see Russia closing towards the end of the year as deals you've been working on during the year kind of start to have -- to come to a head and get done and tax planning, et cetera.

    因此我認為,如果有的話,你會看到俄羅斯的交易在年底接近尾聲,因為你今年一直在努力的交易開始進入高潮並完成,還有稅務規劃等等。

  • But I don't think we've seen a meaningful shift in cadence of deal flow coming across our desk in the last 6 to 12 months, it has been healthy and consistent.

    但我不認為在過去 6 到 12 個月中,我們處理的交易流程節奏發生了顯著變化,而是一直保持著健康、持續的趨勢。

  • Michael Carroll - Analyst

    Michael Carroll - Analyst

  • Okay.

    好的。

  • And then James, can you provide details on the recent acquisitions?

    那麼詹姆斯,您能提供有關最近收購的詳細資訊嗎?

  • I guess the ones that you're transitioning new operators and your banking and then stabilizing.

    我想你們正在轉型新的營運商和銀行業務,然後趨於穩定。

  • And I mean, general over the past 18 months, have they performed in line with your expectations, so kind of marching back up to that mid-14, 15 type coverage ratio?

    我的意思是,過去 18 個月的整體表現是否符合您的預期,那麼是否會回升至 14、15 年中期的覆蓋率?

  • James Callister - Executive Vice President, Chief Investment Officer, Secretary

    James Callister - Executive Vice President, Chief Investment Officer, Secretary

  • Yes.

    是的。

  • I mean, some of them is just too early, Mike, right?

    我的意思是,其中一些還太早,麥克,對吧?

  • I mean, Tennessee in particular, it's just too early really to see that from when they got into now.

    我的意思是,特別是田納西州,從他們現在的情況來看,這還為時過早。

  • We just don't have a full set of financials probably really would show that.

    我們只是沒有完整的財務數據可能真的可以顯示這一點。

  • But on the whole, I would say, yes.

    但從整體來說,我想說是的。

  • And I think that we don't have any reason to believe they're not on track to get where and when we've stabilized them going.

    我認為,我們沒有任何理由相信他們無法按照我們已經穩定下來的進程順利前進。

  • And I would add that a key part of the equation and the risk-adjusted return as well as the credit and the lower coverage going into more credit we're going to insist on.

    我想補充一點,等式的關鍵部分是風險調整後的回報以及信貸和較低的覆蓋率帶來更多的信貸,我們將堅持這一點。

  • And as of right now, we see those performing as projected.

    截至目前,我們看到這些表現符合預期。

  • Michael Carroll - Analyst

    Michael Carroll - Analyst

  • Okay.

    好的。

  • And then when should we expect to see those coverage ratios start to kind of click into the stop.

    那麼我們什麼時候應該預期看到這些覆蓋率開始逐漸停止呢?

  • And I guess I'm specifically looking at Lynx.

    我想我特別關注的是 Lynx。

  • And I mean, great, if you could talk about it, but I know it's one specific or so you might not want to give us too many details but I mean, I think the first four buildings were required in what mid-2023, I mean, will that start to roll on to this up sometime in 2025?

    我的意思是,太好了,如果您可以談論它,但我知道這是一個具體的,所以您可能不想給我們太多細節,但我的意思是,我認為前四棟建築需要在 2023 年中期建成,我的意思是,這會在 2025 年的某個時候開始延續下去嗎?

  • David Sedgwick - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

    David Sedgwick - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Mike, probably not because Lynx in particular, you might recall, we gave them, I think, a two-year ramp in their rent to get to stabilization.

    麥克,可能不是,特別是因為 Lynx,你可能還記得,我們​​給了他們兩年的租金上漲空間,以達到穩定。

  • And so we -- that one in particular, had a longer lead time than others when we acquire new facilities going in new operators.

    因此,當我們收購新設施並引入新營運商時,我們的準備時間比其他公司更長。

  • We give them the time they need to wrap their arms around the buildings, get them seasoned and stabilized before we start putting that in this up.

    我們給他們足夠的時間來熟悉這些建築,讓他們熟悉並穩定下來,然後我們再開始把它們放到上面。

  • Michael Carroll - Analyst

    Michael Carroll - Analyst

  • Okay.

    好的。

  • So Lynx, you'll give it to us in year three, so which would be 2026 to give us a number for that?

    所以 Lynx,你會在第三年把它交給我們,那麼 2026 年能給我們一個數字嗎?

  • David Sedgwick - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

    David Sedgwick - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • I would expect so, yes.

    是的,我希望如此。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Juan Sanabria, BMO Capital Markets.

    Juan Sanabria,BMO資本市場。

  • Juan Sanabria - Analyst

    Juan Sanabria - Analyst

  • Just hoping you could talk a little bit more about the pipeline kind of mentioned seniors housing a couple of times.

    只是希望您能多談談幾次提到的老年人住房問題。

  • So just curious if there's any more appetite on the senior side if you're seeing more deal flow there.

    所以,我只是好奇,如果您看到那裡有更多的交易流,高級方面是否還會有更多的興趣。

  • And would that include SHOP, which I know you've kind of talked about previously and just as the last little bit of that cap rate expectations for the seniors housing piece of the transaction pipeline.

    這是否包括 SHOP,我知道您之前已經談論過它,它也是交易管道中老年人住房部分資本化率預期的最後一點。

  • David Sedgwick - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

    David Sedgwick - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Yes, I think we've been really interested in looking at seniors and from a SHOP perspective, call it, for the last couple of years.

    是的,我認為過去幾年來我們一直非常感興趣從 SHOP 角度關注老年人。

  • And I think that interest remains, and it's all going to just come down to finding the right entry point if we can find it.

    我認為這種興趣仍然存在,一切都將歸結為尋找正確的切入點(如果我們能夠找到的話)。

  • History always done some seniors housing just about every year, which has kept the concentration kind of where it has been throughout our 10 years.

    歷史上,我們幾乎每年都會建造一些老年人住房,這使得我們的重點在過去 10 年保持不變。

  • We've done some triple net, as you know, recently.

    如您所知,我們最近做了一些三重網絡。

  • And -- but it remains to be seen.

    而且——但這還有待觀察。

  • We really have to find that right entry point to go into the SHOP space.

    我們確實必須找到進入 SHOP 空間的正確切入點。

  • Juan Sanabria - Analyst

    Juan Sanabria - Analyst

  • Okay.

    好的。

  • Great.

    偉大的。

  • And then just going back to Medicaid and political uncertainty, one of the avenues being discussed is just pulling back on Medicaid expansion.

    然後回到醫療補助和政治不確定性問題,正在討論的途徑之一就是停止醫療補助擴張。

  • How do you think that would play through and/or impact skilled nursing, if that were to come to fruition, just to play out that scenario whether or not it happens or not kind of notwithstanding?

    您認為,如果這種情況得以實現,無論是否發生,都會對專業護理產生怎樣的影響?

  • David Sedgwick - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

    David Sedgwick - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Yes, I would not view -- if that's the direction that it goes, I would not view that as a serious concern for skilled nursing.

    是的,我不會認為——如果事情是這樣發展的,我不會認為這對專業護理人員來說是一個嚴重的問題。

  • I think the bulk of that expansion was for younger able-bodied folks who were added to the Medicaid rolls and effect gets -- if they throw work requirements and different eligibility requirements that I would not expect that to hit skilled nursing.

    我認為,此次擴張的主要目的是針對那些被添加到醫療補助名單中並產生影響的年輕健全人——如果他們拋出工作要求和其他資格要求,我預計這不會影響到專業護理。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Rich Anderson, Wedbush.

    里奇安德森,韋德布希。

  • Rich Anderson - Analyst

    Rich Anderson - Analyst

  • So your comments around PACs.

    所以你的評論是圍繞著 PAC 的。

  • I appreciate that.

    我很感激。

  • You had a sort of a follow-on kind of completion in 2025 and 1 facility.

    您將在 2025 年完成某種後續工程並建造 1 個設施。

  • But I'm just curious what it is to do work with them at this stage given the uncertainty around them, would you be open to doing a deal with them today?

    但我只是好奇,考慮到他們周圍的不確定性,現階段與他們合作會是什麼樣子,你願意今天與他們做交易嗎?

  • Or are you sort of in a holding pattern as it relates to your external growth?

    或者,您在外部成長方面是否處於等待狀態?

  • David Sedgwick - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

    David Sedgwick - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • I think PACs and sales are probably in a bit of a holding pattern until they can release earnings.

    我認為 PAC 和銷售部門可能會處於等待狀態,直到他們能夠公佈收益為止。

  • And I think we'll wait to see how that earnings release comes out and hope that it's a positive one.

    我認為我們將拭目以待收益報告的結果,並希望它是一份積極的報告。

  • Rich Anderson - Analyst

    Rich Anderson - Analyst

  • Okay.

    好的。

  • Fair enough.

    很公平。

  • And then on your SHOP comments, if so -- if you were to sort of get something moving in that direction, where do you see it executing?

    然後關於您的 SHOP 評論,如果是這樣 — — 如果您要讓某事朝那個方向發展,您認為它會如何執行?

  • Would it be acquiring an enterprise that has the people and process in place?

    是否會收購一家擁有合適人才和流程的企業?

  • Or would you build it organically?

    或者你會有機地建造它嗎?

  • David Sedgwick - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

    David Sedgwick - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • I think it's still to be determined.

    我認為這還有待確定。

  • I think you could -- all options would -- I would say, are on the table with respect to SHOP.

    我認為你可以 - 我想說,所有選項都在 SHOP 的討論範圍內。

  • It's certainly a compelling area for the same reasons why skilled nursing is such a strong place to be.

    這無疑是一個引人注目的領域,其原因與專業護理如此強大的原因相同。

  • The demographics are just incredible.

    人口統計數據令人難以置信。

  • And the next five years from now, is projected that there will be more than 4 million more people aged 80 years or older.

    未來五年,預計80歲以上老人人數將增加400多萬人。

  • So that long anticipated silver tsunami appears to now be breaking.

    人們期待已久的銀色海嘯似乎現在正在爆發。

  • And so the demographics and the supply and demand, it's obviously a very compelling area that we're very familiar with on the skilled side, and a lot of that bleeds over to the SHOP side.

    因此,人口統計和供需顯然是一個非常引人注目的領域,我們在技術方面非常熟悉,而且其中許多都滲透到了 SHOP 方面。

  • Rich Anderson - Analyst

    Rich Anderson - Analyst

  • Okay.

    好的。

  • And then just one last one for me.

    對我來說,只剩下最後一個了。

  • In your $1.5 billion of investments last year, how much of that was sort of the normal course replenishment of your visible pipeline, which is today $325 and was there any amount in that $1.5 billion that would be quote-unquote larger portfolio that were in addition to what you characterize as your pipeline?

    在您去年的 15 億美元投資中,有多少是對您可見管道的正常補充,也就是今天的 3.25 億美元,在這 15 億美元中,除了您所描述的管道之外,還有什麼金額是所謂的更大的投資組合?

  • I'm just curious to the makeup of the 2024 external growth platform and how that might be extrapolated into 2025 in terms of deal volume.

    我只是好奇 2024 年外部成長平台的組成,以及就交易量而言如何推斷到 2025 年。

  • David Sedgwick - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

    David Sedgwick - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Yes.

    是的。

  • So the way we handle the pipe is we quote a number that we have a very high amount of confidence in.

    因此,我們處理管道的方式是引用一個我們非常有信心的數字。

  • It certainly is not inclusive of everything that we are underwriting or reviewing or chasing either.

    它當然不包括我們正在承保、審查或追逐的所有內容。

  • The bigger the deal, the higher the threshold that we have on it before we included in the number.

    交易越大,我們將其納入數字之前的門檻就越高。

  • So as the year went on, we were certainly working on, for example, the Tennessee deal, right.

    所以隨著時間的推移,我們當然在致力於諸如田納西州的交易,對吧。

  • Throughout the year, but we were not including that until we really had to because it was that certain that we were going to get it done.

    全年,但我們沒有把它包括在內,除非我們真的必須這麼做,因為我們確信我們會完成它。

  • And so we announced what we feel very confident in, we execute and we replenish that pipe as -- we stayed a replenished order pipeline as deals either closed, fall out or get replenished.

    因此,我們宣布了我們非常有信心的事情,我們會執行,並且我們會補充這條管道——隨著交易的結束、失敗或補充,我們保持了補充的訂單管道。

  • Rich Anderson - Analyst

    Rich Anderson - Analyst

  • So of the $1.5 billion last year, is it fair to say that 50% of it was this sort of replenishment movement and 50% was stuff that wasn't in that pipeline, but ultimately worked out, like in the case of Tennessee, is that a reasonable breakout of what happened last year?

    那麼,在去年的 15 億美元中,是否可以說其中 50% 是這種補充行動,而 50% 是那些不在該頻道但最終取得成功的項目,就像田納西州的情況一樣,這是否合理地突破了去年發生的情況?

  • David Sedgwick - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

    David Sedgwick - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • No, I don't think so.

    不,我不這麼認為。

  • I think if you roll back the tape, you'll see -- you'd have to go back to each time that we updated our pipe number and compare that with what closed.

    我想如果你回放磁帶,你就會看到——你必須回到每次我們更新管道編號的時候,並將其與關閉的管道編號進行比較。

  • And then I would say probably that the Pennsylvania -- I'm sorry, the Tennessee deal was the 1 that would not have been included in sort of run rate quoted pipe because we really did wait until that thing was signed up and it was a material investment, which required us to disclose it.

    然後我可能會說賓夕法尼亞州 - 對不起,田納西州的交易是不會被包括在某種運行率報價管道中的,因為我們確實等到那件事簽署後才進行,而且這是一項重大投資,這要求我們披露它。

  • So I think the -- if you factor -- if you take that one out, maybe from the quoted pipe numbers along the way, I might give you a better read.

    因此我認為 — — 如果你考慮到 — — 如果你把這個因素拿出來,也許從沿途引用的管道數字中,我可能會給你更好的解讀。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • (Operator Instructions) Omotayo Okusanya, Deutsche Bank.

    (操作員指示) Omotayo Okusanya,德意志銀行。

  • Omotayo Okusanya - Analyst

    Omotayo Okusanya - Analyst

  • Yes.

    是的。

  • Good afternoon, everyone.

    大家下午好。

  • Just curious on the Medicaid side in perspective as they start in Europe for their yearly budget.

    我只是對醫療補助方面的觀點感到好奇,因為他們從歐洲開始製定年度預算。

  • Are you kind of any early indications of what might be happening in terms of just Medicaid reimbursement at the state level in the key states you have exposure to?

    您是否能提前預示在您所接觸的關鍵州,州一級的醫療補助報銷情況將會發生哪些變化?

  • David Sedgwick - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

    David Sedgwick - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • We don't expect any negative surprises on that front based on what we've heard from our operators, there's some -- just to give you one little piece of color.

    根據我們從運營商那裡聽到的消息,我們預計這方面不會有任何負面意外,但還是有一些——只是給你一點點信息。

  • There is some building optimism that Texas will see a fair size increase which would obviously be very welcome news to that state that has historically been underfunded.

    人們越來越樂觀地認為,德州的醫療規模將大幅增加,這對這個歷史上資金不足的州來說顯然是個好消息。

  • But we've also been disappointed by that type of hope in Texas before, too.

    但我們以前在德克薩斯州也曾對這種希望感到失望。

  • So besides that, I think we're expecting it to be a pretty routine season with respect to Medicaid rate.

    因此除此之外,我認為我們預計從醫療補助率來看這將是一個相當正常的季節。

  • Omotayo Okusanya - Analyst

    Omotayo Okusanya - Analyst

  • And then, I guess, sticking to the Medicaid conversation, I appreciate all the color you've put on how the government are thinking about it.

    然後,我想,堅持醫療補助話題,我很欣賞您對政府如何考慮這個問題所給出的所有解釋。

  • But I do think one other popular theme is this idea of the government has kind of pulls back on the amount of kind of Medicaid maxing they're doing and they ask the states to be much more responsible for it.

    但我確實認為另一個受歡迎的主題是,政府在某種程度上已經減少了醫療補助的最高限額,並要求各州對此承擔更多的責任。

  • Any thoughts around that line of thinking about how -- but you could see potential evolution of Medicaid.

    圍繞著這一思路您有什麼想法嗎—但您可以看到醫療補助的潛在發展。

  • And on the Medicare side, also a lot of thoughts around they start to push much more Medicare Advantage versus traditional Medicare and I think, again, with Medicare Advantage, the reimbursement rate tends to be lower to the operator.

    在醫療保險方面,人們也開始大力推行醫療保險優勢計劃,而非傳統醫療保險,而且我認為,醫療保險優勢計劃的報銷率對於運營商來說往往更低。

  • So again, just any thoughts on those kind of two thoughts around how the Trump administration may attack this.

    所以再說一遍,關於川普政府如何打擊這項行為,我只想提一下我的看法。

  • David Sedgwick - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

    David Sedgwick - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Sure.

    當然。

  • I'll go in reverse order.

    我將按相反的順序進行。

  • I think the trend is certainly not the industry's trend with respect to managed Medicare.

    我認為,就管理型醫療保險而言,這種趨勢絕對不是產業趨勢。

  • That trend has been in place for -- gosh, I've been in the business 25 years, and it's been part of the discussion this whole time.

    這種趨勢已經存在了——天哪,我從事這個行業已經 25 年了,它一直是討論的一部分。

  • And that's going to -- I don't expect that to reverse.

    而且那將會——我不希望那會發生逆轉。

  • I think that trend will continue.

    我認為這種趨勢將會持續下去。

  • And Medicare Advantage will continue to eat into regular fee-for-service Medicare.

    而醫療保險優勢計劃將繼續侵蝕常規按服務收費的醫療保險。

  • And so then that -- what I'm about -- historically and going forward is the same is true that the more sophisticated operators are able to adjust to that.

    所以 — — 我想說的是 — — 從歷史上看以及未來的情況是一樣的,更老練的操作員能夠適應這一點。

  • They're able to invest in those relationships with the managed care organizations and gain share from that.

    他們能夠投資與管理式醫療組織建立的關係並從中獲得份額。

  • So yes, it's challenging and there's a lower length of stay, but you can actually capture some share.

    所以是的,這很有挑戰性,而且停留時間較短,但你實際上可以獲得一些份額。

  • And if you're really sophisticated, you can net-net, not do too poorly from that.

    如果你真的很老練,你就可以淨賺,而且不會賺太差。

  • With respect to the -- I guess, just spitballing you've got a house that does not have nearly the majority that it had during Trump 1.0. And in the first administration, President Trump ran on building the wall and repealing Obamacare, health care reform.

    關於——我想,只是推測一下,你所在眾議院的多數席位遠不及川普 1.0 時期的多數席位。在第一屆政府中,川普總統致力於建造隔離牆並廢除歐巴馬醫改和醫療改革。

  • And they were unable to pass any of these types of approaches to chip away the Medicaid rates.

    他們無法透過任何此類方法來削減醫療補助費率。

  • And now you have a fairly razor thin majority.

    而現在,你們的多數票已經非常微弱。

  • And so as they -- as they look at that, I think you're going to have the same type of opposition with much less room for error by -- in the house and -- but also those Republican governors are not interested in having -- taking on more of that burden.

    因此,當他們 — — 當他們看到這一點時,我認為你會遇到同樣類型的反對,眾議院的容錯空間要小得多 — — 但那些共和黨州長也不想承擔更多的負擔。

  • There's just no room really to cut for Medicaid for skilled nursing.

    對於專業照護的醫療補助,確實沒有削減的空間。

  • And I think the states and the federal government are more aware of that today than they ever have been based on what happened with the pandemic.

    我認為,根據疫情的進展,各州和聯邦政府今天比以往任何時候都更加意識到這一點。

  • Omotayo Okusanya - Analyst

    Omotayo Okusanya - Analyst

  • That's helpful.

    這很有幫助。

  • And as I indulged is one more, just around PACS again, I know it's a bit of a black box today.

    當我再次沉迷於 PACS 時,我知道今天它有點像黑盒子。

  • But how do you guys kind of think about a worst-case scenario as it pertains to kind of the current federal investigation, just again, as you guys are kind of handicapping this thing, like worst-case scenario is what in your mind?

    但是,就目前的聯邦調查而言,你們是如何看待最壞情況的,再說一次,當你們對這件事進行一些分析時,你們心中的最壞情況是什麼樣的?

  • David Sedgwick - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

    David Sedgwick - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • No, we don't really want to speculate on that in this forum.

    不,我們確實不想在這個論壇上猜測這個問題。

  • We don't have a worst-case scenario that we're concerned about right now.

    我們現在不用擔心最壞的情況。

  • We think that they're going to be just fine, and we really don't have much more to comment before they themselves are able to comment.

    我們認為他們會沒事的,在他們自己發表評論之前,我們真的沒有太多可評論的。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • If there are no more questions, I will wrap up the Q&A session.

    如果沒有其他問題,我將結束問答環節。

  • I will now turn the call over to Dave Sedgwick, Chief Executive Officer, for closing remarks.

    現在,我將把電話轉給執行長戴夫·塞奇威克 (Dave Sedgwick) 來做結束語。

  • David Sedgwick - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

    David Sedgwick - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Well, thank you, guys, very much for your interest and support.

    好吧,非常感謝大家的關注與支持。

  • Look forward to another very strong year here at CareTrust.

    期待 CareTrust 再創輝煌一年。

  • Have a great day.

    祝你有美好的一天。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Ladies and gentlemen, that concludes today's call.

    女士們、先生們,今天的電話會議到此結束。

  • Thank you all for joining, and you may now disconnect.

    感謝大家加入,現在可以斷開連線了。