CSX Corporation (CSX) 2015 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Good morning, ladies and gentlemen. Welcome to the CSX Corporation fourth-quarter 2015 earnings call.

各位女士、各位先生，早安。歡迎參加 CSX Corporation 2015 年第四季財報電話會議。

(Operator Instructions)

（接線員指示）

For opening remarks and introductions, I would like to turn the call over to Mr. David Baggs, Vice President, Treasurer, and Investor Relations Officer for CSX Corporation.

接下來進行開場致詞與介紹，我想把電話會議交給 CSX Corporation 副總裁、財務長兼投資人關係主管 David Baggs 先生。

Thank you, Carlos, and good morning, everyone. And again, welcome to CSX Corporation's fourth-quarter 2015 earnings presentation. The presentation material that we'll be reviewing this morning, along with our quarterly financial report and our safety and service measurements, are available on our website at CSX.com under the investor section. In addition, following the presentation, the webcast replay will be available on that same website.

謝謝你，Carlos，也向各位道早安。再次歡迎各位參加 CSX Corporation 2015 年第四季財報簡報。我們今天早上將要檢視的簡報資料，以及我們的季度財務報告與安全及服務衡量指標，皆可於 CSX.com 網站的投資人專區取得。此外，簡報結束後，網路直播重播也將在同一網站提供。

This morning, our presentation will be led by Michael Ward, the Company's Chairman and Chief Executive Officer; and Frank Lonegro, our Chief Financial Officer. In addition, Cindy Sanborn, our Chief Operating Officer; and Fredrik Eliasson, our Chief Sales and Marketing Officer, along with Clarence Gooden, our President, will be available during the question-and-answer session.

今天早上的簡報將由公司董事長兼執行長 Michael Ward，以及財務長 Frank Lonegro 主持。此外，營運長 Cindy Sanborn、銷售與行銷長 Fredrik Eliasson，以及總裁 Clarence Gooden，將在問答環節中出席。

Now before I turn the presentation over to Michael, let me remind everyone that the presentation and other statements made by the Company contain forward-looking statements. You are encouraged to review the Company's disclosure on the accompanying presentation on slide 2. This disclosure identifies forward-looking statements, as well as the uncertainties and risks that could cause actual performance to differ materially from the results anticipated by these statements.

在我把簡報交給 Michael 之前，先提醒各位，本簡報及公司所作的其他陳述包含前瞻性聲明。建議各位查閱隨附簡報第 2 頁的公司揭露事項。該揭露說明了前瞻性聲明，以及可能導致實際表現與這些聲明所預期結果出現重大差異的不確定性與風險。

In addition, at the end of the presentation, we will conduct a question-and-answer session with the research analysts. With nearly 30 analysts covering CSX and out of respect for everyone's time, including our investors, I would ask as a courtesy for you to please limit your inquiries to one question and if necessary, a clarifying question on that same topic. And with that, let me turn the presentation over to CSX Corporation's Chairman and Chief Executive Officer, Michael Ward. Michael.

另外，在簡報結束時，我們將與研究分析師進行問答環節。由於有近 30 位分析師追蹤 CSX，並基於對各位（包括投資人）時間的尊重，敬請各位每次提問以一個問題為限，如有需要，可就同一主題再提出一個釐清問題。那麼，接下來我把簡報交給 CSX Corporation 董事長兼執行長 Michael Ward。Michael。

Well thank you, David. Good morning, everyone. Yesterday, CSX reported fourth-quarter net earnings of $466 million, or $0.48 per share, down 2% from the same period in 2014. Revenue declined 13% in the quarter, as strong pricing was more than offset by the impact of lower fuel recovery, a 6% volume decline, and the continued transition in the Company's business mix. Expenses also decreased 13%, primarily the result of lower fuel prices, lower volume-related costs, and efficiency gains. As a result, operating income decreased 12% to $791 million, while the operating ratio improved 20 basis points to 71.6%. In addition, CSX remains an industry leader in safety, and service measures continue to progress well as we enter 2016. In fact, Chicago operations have now been fluid for nearly 12 straight months.

謝謝你，David。各位早安。昨天，CSX 公布第四季淨利為 4.66 億美元，或每股 0.48 美元，較 2014 年同期下降 2%。本季營收下滑 13%；儘管定價表現強勁，但仍被燃油附加費回收減少的影響、運量下滑 6%，以及公司業務組合持續轉型所抵銷。費用亦下降 13%，主要因燃油價格較低、與運量相關的成本下降，以及效率提升所致。因此，營業利益下降 12% 至 7.91 億美元，而營業比率改善 20 個基點至 71.6%。此外，CSX 仍是業界安全領導者，且在邁入 2016 年之際，服務指標也持續良好進展。事實上，芝加哥的營運如今已連續近 12 個月保持順暢。

Now turning to the next slide, I'll discuss full-year performance. Over the past five years, CSX has transformed its business to continue delivering solid results, despite the global energy transition. As you can see on the left side of the chart, during that period, CSX coal revenue alone declined from $3.7 billion to $2.3 billion, a cumulative reduction of $1.4 billion. CSX has overcome that loss by significantly diversifying its market mix, improving service, and investing in long-term growth opportunities. As a result, in 2015, coal represented only 19% of CSX's revenue, down from more than 30% in 2011. During that same period, shareholder returns, including dividends and repurchases, have continued to reward the owners of our Company, reflecting the steady growth in earnings per share, which reached $2 in 2015.

接著看下一張投影片，我將說明全年表現。過去五年，CSX 在全球能源轉型之下仍持續交出穩健成果，並完成業務轉型。如圖表左側所示，在此期間，僅煤炭營收就從 37 億美元降至 23 億美元，累計減少 14 億美元。CSX 透過大幅多元化市場組合、改善服務，以及投資長期成長機會，克服了這項損失。因此，2015 年煤炭僅占 CSX 營收的 19%，低於 2011 年的 30% 以上。同一期間，股東報酬（包含股利與庫藏股回購）持續回饋公司股東，反映每股盈餘穩定成長，並於 2015 年達到 2 美元。

Our 2015 performance was achieved despite the challenges in the energy market, low commodity prices, and a strong US dollar that impacted many of our markets. Revenue of $11.8 billion reflected growth in intermodal, automotive, and minerals, that partially offset the continued declines in coal. Improving service, aligning resources and costs against a lower demand environment, and driving efficiency gains of more than $180 million helped generate operating income of nearly $3.6 billion and our first sub-70 full-year operating ratio at 69.7%. Those results reflect the employees' relentless focus on safety and delivering service that supports strong pricing and ever-increasing operational efficiency, as well as the benefit of lower fuel prices. We will continue to leverage our core strategy, superior network reach, and diverse market mix to create long-term value for our shareholders.

我們 2015 年的表現是在能源市場挑戰、商品價格低迷，以及強勢美元影響多個市場的情況下達成的。118 億美元的營收反映了聯運、汽車與礦產的成長，部分抵銷煤炭持續下滑。透過改善服務、在需求較低的環境下調整資源與成本配置，以及推動超過 1.8 億美元的效率提升，我們創造了近 36 億美元的營業利益，並達成首次全年營業比率低於 70 的 69.7%。這些成果反映員工對安全的持續專注，以及提供支撐強勁定價與不斷提升營運效率的服務，同時也受惠於較低的燃油價格。我們將持續運用核心策略、優越的網路覆蓋範圍與多元市場組合，為股東創造長期價值。

Now, I'll turn the presentation over to Frank, who will take us through the quarterly results and future outlook in more detail. Frank?

接下來我把簡報交給 Frank，他將更詳細帶領各位了解本季結果與未來展望。Frank？

Thank you, Michael, and good morning, everyone. Let me begin by providing some more detail on our fourth-quarter results. As Michael mentioned, revenue was down 13%, or $411 million versus the prior year. This was driven mainly by $198 million decline in fuel surcharge recoveries and about $175 million from the impact of lower volume.

謝謝你，Michael，各位早安。我先就第四季結果提供更多細節。如 Michael 所提，營收較去年同期下降 13%，或減少 4.11 億美元。主要原因是燃油附加費回收減少 1.98 億美元，以及運量下降影響約 1.75 億美元。

At the same time, core pricing gains were more than offset by the impact of negative business mix. Volume decreased 6% from last year, with coal driving the majority of the decline. Low natural gas prices, coupled with the impact of significant flooding in South Carolina, impacted domestic coal volumes, while low commodity prices and the strong US dollar challenged export coal in many of our merchandise markets. We continue to see strong core pricing, which for the fourth quarter was up 4.1% overall and 4.5% excluding coal.

同時，核心定價的成長被不利的業務組合影響所抵銷。運量較去年下降 6%，其中煤炭占了大部分的下滑。天然氣價格偏低，加上南卡羅來納州嚴重洪災的影響，衝擊國內煤炭運量；而商品價格低迷與強勢美元，則使我們多個一般貨運市場中的出口煤炭面臨挑戰。我們仍看到強勁的核心定價；第四季整體上升 4.1%，若排除煤炭則上升 4.5%。

Other revenue increased $19 million from last year, driven primarily by unfavorable adjustments to revenue reserves in the prior-year period. Expenses decreased 13% versus the prior year, driven mainly by $117 million in lower fuel prices, $107 million in lower volume-related costs, and $59 million in efficiency gains.

其他收入較去年增加 1,900 萬美元，主要由於去年同期對營收準備金作出不利調整所致。費用較去年下降 13%，主要受惠於燃油價格降低帶來 1.17 億美元的減少、與運量相關成本降低 1.07 億美元，以及效率提升 5,900 萬美元。

In order to further drive efficiencies, we closed two facilities in our coal network and completed a new union labor agreement in the fourth quarter. As a result of these actions, we incurred a $48 million, or $0.03 EPS impact in the quarter. These short-term restructuring costs will drive future benefits as we gain greater workforce flexibility and continue to adjust to lower demand in our coal market. Operating income was $791 million in the fourth quarter, down 12% versus the prior year.

為了進一步提升效率，我們在第四季關閉煤炭網路中的兩處設施，並完成一項新的工會勞動協議。因應這些行動，我們在本季產生 4,800 萬美元的費用，或對每股盈餘（EPS）造成 0.03 美元的影響。這些短期重整成本將帶來未來效益，因為我們將獲得更高的人力彈性，並持續因應煤炭市場需求下降而調整。第四季營業利益為 7.91 億美元，較去年同期下降 12%。

Looking below the line, interest expense was up slightly from last year, with higher debt levels partially offset by lower rates. As we highlighted on our last earnings call, a property sale closed in the fourth quarter for a gain of $80 million, or a $0.05 benefit to earnings per share. This gain was associated with a nonoperating property and was booked below the line in other income. And finally, income taxes were $275 million in the quarter, with an effective tax rate of about 37%. Overall, net earnings were $466 million, down 5% versus the prior year, and EPS was $0.48 per share, down 2% versus last year.

再看營業利益以下項目，利息費用較去年略增，較高的負債水準部分被較低利率所抵銷。如我們在上次財報電話會議中所提，一筆不動產出售於第四季完成，帶來 8,000 萬美元的處分利益，或對每股盈餘貢獻 0.05 美元。該利益與一項非營運性不動產相關，並在其他收入中列為營業外項目（below the line）。最後，本季所得稅為 2.75 億美元，有效稅率約為 37%。整體而言，淨利為 4.66 億美元，較去年同期下降 5%，每股盈餘為 0.48 美元，較去年下降 2%。

Now let me turn to the market outlook for the first quarter. Looking forward, we expect volumes to decline in the first quarter. We expect a challenging freight environment to continue as the headwinds associated with coal, low commodity prices, and a strong US dollar more than offset the markets that will show growth. Automotive is expected to grow consistent with light vehicle production, and especially in comparison to a year ago when the auto network experienced weather and service-related congestion. Minerals will benefit from continued highway and nonresidential construction activity and new business.

現在讓我轉到第一季的市場展望。展望未來，我們預期第一季運量將下滑。我們預期貨運環境仍將充滿挑戰，與煤炭、低商品價格以及強勢美元相關的逆風，將超過那些預計會成長的市場所帶來的正面影響。汽車業務預期將隨輕型車產量成長而成長，尤其是相較於一年前汽車網路曾因天候與服務相關因素而出現壅塞。礦物業務將受惠於公路與非住宅建築活動持續，以及新增業務。

Intermodal is neutral, as continued secular domestic growth and our strategic network investments that support highway to rail conversion are essentially offset by customer losses in international. Agricultural products is unfavorable due to low corn prices, coupled with weakness in export grain and import sourcing in ethanol, driven by a strong US dollar. While core chemicals is expected to again be flat, the overall chemicals market is expected to be down, as energy markets continue to reset to an environment marked by low crude oil prices and challenging spreads.

聯運持平，因為持續的國內長期結構性成長，以及我們支持由公路轉向鐵路的策略性網路投資，基本上被國際業務的客戶流失所抵銷。農產品業務不利，原因是玉米價格偏低，加上出口穀物疲弱，以及在強勢美元驅動下，乙醇進口採購來源走弱。雖然核心化學品預期將再度持平，但整體化學品市場預期將下滑，因為能源市場持續重置至原油價格偏低且價差具挑戰的環境。

Domestic coal will continue to be unfavorably impacted by low natural gas prices and an inventory overhang due to mild weather. For 2016, we expect domestic coal volume to be around 19 million tons per quarter. Export coal will continue to be pressured by the strong US dollar and global oversupply. Our full-year outlook for export coal volume is around 20 million tons with some downside sensitivity.

國內煤炭將持續受到低天然氣價格與因溫和天氣造成的庫存過剩所帶來的不利影響。就2016年而言，我們預期國內煤炭運量每季約為1,900萬噸。出口煤炭將持續受到強勢美元與全球供給過剩的壓力。我們對全年出口煤炭運量的展望約為2,000萬噸，且存在一些下行敏感度。

Metals is unfavorable, as the strong US dollar and high levels of imports continue to negatively impact steel production levels. Overall, despite a slow growing economy, the freight environment continues to have pronounced challenges with low commodity prices, low natural gas, and a strong US dollar.

金屬業務不利，因為強勢美元與高水準進口持續對鋼鐵產量水準造成負面影響。整體而言，儘管經濟成長緩慢，貨運環境仍面臨顯著挑戰，包括低商品價格、低天然氣價格以及強勢美元。

Turning to the next slide, let me talk about our expectations for expenses. Overall, we expect first-quarter expense to benefit from the low fuel price environment, as well as continued productivity and volume-related cost savings.

接著看下一張投影片，讓我談談我們對費用的預期。整體而言，我們預期第一季費用將受惠於低燃油價格環境，以及持續的生產力提升與與運量相關的成本節省。

Looking at labor and fringe, we expect the first-quarter average headcount to be down approximately 2% on a sequential basis, driven primarily by the structural changes in our coal network that we announced in the fourth quarter. This reflects about a 10% reduction from the prior year. We expect labor inflation to be around $25 million per quarter throughout 2016, in line with the levels seen here in the fourth quarter.

就人力與附加福利而言，我們預期第一季平均人數將較前一季約下降2%，主要由我們在第四季宣布的煤炭網路結構性調整所驅動。這相當於較前一年約減少10%。我們預期2016年全年每季的人力通膨約為2,500萬美元，與第四季所見水準一致。

Looking at MS&O expense, we expect inflation to be offset by efficiency gains and volume-related savings, in line with the trends we have seen in the second half of 2015. In addition, the first quarter will reflect a shift in our Northern Ohio coal operations. Here we took action early in the fourth quarter to consolidate freight from a facility in Ashtabula to CSX's Toledo docks, which further streamlines our coal operations.

就MS&O費用而言，我們預期通膨將被效率提升與與運量相關的節省所抵銷，符合我們在2015年下半年所見的趨勢。此外，第一季將反映我們在北俄亥俄煤炭營運的調整。我們在第四季初即採取行動，將貨運自阿什塔比拉（Ashtabula）的一處設施整併至CSX位於托萊多（Toledo）的碼頭，進一步精簡我們的煤炭營運。

Fuel expense in the first quarter will be driven by lower cost per gallon, reflecting the current price environment, volume-related savings, and continued focus on fuel efficiency. We expect depreciation in the first quarter to increase around $15 million versus the prior year, reflecting the ongoing investment in the business. Finally, equipment and other rents in the first quarter is expected to stay relatively flat to last year, with higher freight car rates offset by improved car cycle times.

第一季燃油費用將由每加侖成本下降所驅動，反映目前的價格環境、與運量相關的節省，以及持續聚焦燃油效率。我們預期第一季折舊費用將較前一年增加約1,500萬美元，反映對業務的持續投資。最後，第一季設備及其他租金預期將與去年大致持平，較高的貨車車輛租率將被車輛周轉時間改善所抵銷。

Now let me talk about our capital investment plan for this year. In 2016, CSX's total capital investment will decline over $100 million from the 2015 level to $2.4 billion, which includes $300 million for PTC. Similar to 2015, we expect 2016 core capital investment to be higher than our long-term guidance of 16% to 17% of revenue due to our locomotive purchase commitment. This investment in new locomotives expands our ability to run longer trains and we will continue storing older locomotives to maximize the efficiency of the fleet.

現在讓我談談我們今年的資本投資計畫。2016年，CSX的總資本投資將較2015年水準減少逾1億美元至24億美元，其中包含用於PTC的3億美元。與2015年類似，由於我們的機車採購承諾，我們預期2016年的核心資本投資將高於我們長期指引的營收16%至17%。對新機車的投資提升我們運行更長列車的能力，我們也將持續封存較舊的機車，以最大化車隊效率。

Looking at our capital allocation for 2016, you can see that over half the investment will be used to maintain infrastructure to help ensure a safe and fluid network. The majority of our 2016 equipment investment is focused on upgrading our locomotive fleet. We took delivery of 200 new locomotives in 2015 and expect to receive another 100 new locomotives in 2016, which will complete our existing locomotive purchase commitment.

就2016年的資本配置而言，你可以看到超過一半的投資將用於維護基礎設施，以協助確保網路安全且順暢。我們2016年設備投資的大部分將聚焦於升級機車車隊。我們在2015年交付了200台新機車，並預期在2016年再接收100台新機車，這將完成我們既有的機車採購承諾。

In addition, we will continue to focus on strategic investments that support long-term profitable growth and productivity initiatives. Here we are prioritizing these investments in our intermodal business, infrastructure projects that support network fluidity, and technology initiatives to enable productivity.

此外，我們將持續聚焦於支持長期獲利成長與生產力計畫的策略性投資。在此我們將優先把投資放在聯運業務、支持網路順暢度的基礎設施專案，以及促進生產力的科技計畫。

Finally, looking at our investment in Positive Train control we have invested $1.5 billion through the end of 2015 and we plan to invest an additional $300 million in 2016. CSX is committed to meeting the new legislative time line for PTC. As we look at the path to achieving this goal and with PTC now extending over a longer period of time, we now believe the total cost of PTC implementation will be about $2.2 billion.

最後，關於我們在正向列車控制（PTC）的投資，截至2015年底我們已投資15億美元，並計畫在2016年再投資3億美元。CSX承諾遵循新的PTC立法時程。隨著我們檢視達成此目標的路徑，且PTC如今延伸至更長的期間，我們目前認為PTC導入的總成本約為22億美元。

Now let me wrap up on the next slide. Overall, CSX delivered solid financial performance in 2015, despite significant market challenges. Full-year EPS increased 4% from the prior year, while our operating ratio improved 180 basis points to 69.7%. Revenue in 2015 was lower than we initially expected, with volume declining 2% for the full year. But our continued focus on pricing for the relative value of rail service, driving efficiency gains, and aligning resources to the softer demand environment helped to offset those volume headwinds.

現在讓我在下一張投影片做個總結。整體而言，儘管市場挑戰重大，CSX在2015年仍交出穩健的財務表現。全年每股盈餘（EPS）較前一年增加4%，同時營運比率改善180個基點至69.7%。2015年營收低於我們最初的預期，全年運量下滑2%。但我們持續聚焦於以鐵路服務的相對價值進行定價、推動效率提升，以及在需求轉弱的環境下調整資源配置，協助抵銷了運量逆風。

Looking ahead, we expect the coal headwinds to continue in 2016. As I mentioned earlier, domestic coal volume in 2016 is expected to be around 19 million tons per quarter, while full-year export coal volume is expected to be around 20 million tons, again, with some downside to the export estimate. In addition, for the full year, we will be operating in a more challenging freight environment than we saw in 2015. Natural gas and broader commodity prices are expected to remain at low levels, and the strength in the US dollar is expected to persist during the year.

展望未來，我們預期煤炭逆風在2016年將持續。如我先前提到，2016年國內煤炭運量預期每季約為1,900萬噸，而全年出口煤炭運量預期約為2,000萬噸，同樣地，出口估計仍有一些下行風險。此外，就全年而言，我們將面對比2015年更具挑戰的貨運環境。天然氣與更廣泛的商品價格預期將維持在低檔，而美元走強預期將在全年持續。

Furthermore, in 2016, we will be cycling a couple large items that benefited our 2015 results. Namely, we received about $100 million in liquidated damages and had an $80 million property gain in 2015, which are not expected to recur in 2016. As a result, we currently believe that 2016 earnings per share will be down from last year.

此外，在2016年，我們將面臨幾項在2015年有利於我們結果的大型項目之基期效應。也就是說，我們在2015年收到約1億美元的違約金（liquidated damages），並有8,000萬美元的資產處分收益，預期2016年不會再發生。因此，我們目前認為2016年每股盈餘將較去年下滑。

Looking at our expectations for 2016, we will continue to right size resources with lower demand and pursue structural cost opportunities across our network. In addition, we expect to deliver productivity savings of around $200 million in 2016, which builds on the $184 million of productivity that we achieved in 2015. Overall, we remain intensely focused this year on delivering a service product that meets or exceeds our customers' expectations, achieving strong pricing to support reinvestment in the business and driving efficiencies across our entire cost structure.

就我們對2016年的預期而言，我們將持續在需求較低的情況下適當調整資源規模，並在整個網路追求結構性成本機會。此外，我們預期2016年可實現約2億美元的生產力節省，這是在2015年達成1.84億美元生產力成果的基礎上再提升。整體而言，今年我們仍將高度聚焦於提供符合或超越客戶期望的服務產品、取得強勁定價以支持對業務的再投資，並推動整體成本結構的效率提升。

With that, let me turn the presentation back to Michael for his closing remarks.

以上，讓我把簡報交回Michael，請他做結語。

Well, thank you, Frank. CSX has continued to deliver solid results for its shareholders, despite the transformational decline in the energy environment and the challenging market conditions. The efforts of our dedicated employees, combined with the diversified business mix and the premier network in the east, have helped us overcome the significant losses in coal.

嗯，謝謝你，Frank。儘管能源環境出現轉型式下滑且市場狀況充滿挑戰，CSX 仍持續為股東交出穩健成果。我們敬業員工的努力，加上多元化的業務組合以及東部一流的鐵路網路，幫助我們克服了煤炭業務的重大損失。

As Frank mentioned, 2016 will be a more challenging year. Volume in the first quarter and for the full year will decline, as growth in some markets continues to be offset by the significant impact of continued coal declines, low commodity prices, and a strong US dollar. We are taking necessary actions to manage our business in that environment, including making structural and network-wide changes to match resources and costs with business demand, driving further efficiency gains, and remaining focused on strong pricing that reflects the value of CSX's service.

如 Frank 所提到的，2016 年將是更具挑戰的一年。第一季以及全年運量都將下滑，因為部分市場的成長持續被煤炭持續下滑的重大影響、低商品價格以及強勢美元所抵銷。我們正採取必要行動以在該環境下管理業務，包括進行結構性與全網路的調整，使資源與成本能與業務需求相匹配、推動進一步的效率提升，並持續專注於能反映 CSX 服務價值的強勁定價。

In response to the further challenges expected in 2016, we've also decreased the capital budget by more than $100 million. We expect to invest $2.4 billion this year as we remain competitive to preserving safety, service, and efficiency for customers and communities alike, while positioning CSX for the future.

為因應 2016 年預期將面臨的進一步挑戰，我們也將資本預算下調超過 1 億美元。我們預期今年投資 24 億美元，在保持競爭力的同時，為客戶與社區維持安全、服務與效率，並讓 CSX 為未來做好布局。

As we look to the future, this Company will continue to transition its business toward long-term profitable growth opportunities in the merchandise and intermodal markets. In that regard, we remain focused on achieving a mid-60s operating ratio longer term, as we execute our core strategy of meeting or exceeding customer needs to support strong pricing for the value of our rail service and continuously improving operational efficiency. With those efforts, we are confident that CSX will continue to be a preferred service provider for customers who face a growing population; a more integrated global economy; and the need for more reliable, more sustainable supply chains. Now, we will be glad to take your questions.

展望未來，本公司將持續把業務轉向商品貨運與聯運市場中具長期獲利性的成長機會。在此方面，隨著我們執行核心策略——滿足或超越客戶需求，以支撐能反映鐵路服務價值的強勁定價，並持續提升營運效率——我們仍聚焦於長期達成 60% 中段的營運比率。透過這些努力，我們有信心 CSX 將持續成為客戶偏好的服務供應商，因為客戶正面臨人口成長、更整合的全球經濟，以及對更可靠、更永續供應鏈的需求。現在，我們很樂意回答各位的問題。

Thank you. We will now begin the question-and-answer session. Our first question comes from Ken Hoexter from Merrill Lynch.

謝謝。我們現在開始問答環節。第一個問題來自 Merrill Lynch 的 Ken Hoexter。

Good morning, Ken.

早安，Ken。

Hi, good morning. Michael, good job in a difficult environment. If I can just talk to you about the outlook here. When you think about earnings going down, can you -- do you have comfort when you look at the economy putting any scale on that? And within that, it seemed like coal and intermodal rate declines were over 8%. I understand fuel and mix were a big part of that.

嗨，早安。Michael，在艱難環境下做得很好。我想跟你談談這裡的展望。當你想到獲利下滑時，你——你在觀察經濟時，對於下滑幅度是否有任何把握可以量化？另外，在這之中，看起來煤炭與聯運的運價下滑都超過 8%。我理解燃油與組合因素是其中很大一部分。

But can you talk about the competitive losses? Is that something where you're seeing increasing price pressure with that? Are we seeing the competition increase their focus on pricing to win some of those intermodal contracts that you noted had been lost? Because it seems like the volume or amount of those had been accelerating. Maybe you could just talk a little bit about that and the outlook.

但你能談談競爭造成的流失嗎？你是否看到因此而出現更大的價格壓力？我們是否看到競爭對手更聚焦於以價格來贏得你提到已流失的那些聯運合約？因為看起來那類流失的量或規模正在加速。也許你可以稍微談談這點以及展望。

Good, broad question there, Tom. Ken, I'm sorry. So Fredrik, maybe address some of the market conditions.

這是個很好的、很廣泛的問題，Tom。Ken，抱歉。那麼 Fredrik，也許你來說明一些市場狀況。

Sure. In terms of the pricing for the quarter, as you saw, our ex-coal pricing actually improved from the third quarter, went from 4.4% in the third quarter to 4.5% here in the fourth quarter. All-in went down, and there really is a reflection of what we did in export coal market here as we're now in a position to actually have some surplus asset. Again, as we get the network running a lot better and very strong service performance, we do have some excess locomotives.

好的。就本季定價而言，如你所見，我們扣除煤炭後的定價其實較第三季改善，從第三季的 4.4% 提升到第四季的 4.5%。整體（all-in）則下滑，這確實反映了我們在出口煤市場的作法，因為我們目前實際上有一些閒置資產。同樣地，隨著我們讓網路運行得更順暢且服務表現非常強勁，我們確實有一些多餘的機車。

We've seen the export market deteriorate, and as a result of that, we felt this was a time when we went back and revisited what we could do to optimize our bottom line. This is one market where we actually don't have fuel surcharge in, and as a result, this fuel price has declined throughout the year.

我們看到出口市場惡化，因此我們認為這是回頭重新檢視、看看能做些什麼來最佳化獲利的時點。這是一個我們實際上沒有燃油附加費的市場，因此燃油價格在全年一路下滑。

We did feel that there was still an opportunity to do a little bit more there and still make money on that. What you're seeing on the pricing side in the all-in is really the reflection of what we're doing in the export coal market. The core pricing actually sequentially improved quarter over quarter.

我們確實認為在那裡仍有機會再多做一些，同時仍能賺錢。你在整體定價（all-in）端看到的情況，主要就是我們在出口煤市場所採取行動的反映。核心定價其實是逐季改善的。

Frank, you want to address some of the --

Frank，你要不要回應一些——

Yes, Ken, on the EPS for the year, you're right, we did guide to EPS being down on a reported basis versus the record $2 a share that we delivered in 2015. We tried to give you guidance in terms of the one-time items that we're cycling in terms of the liquidated damages and the property sale, the continued transformation in the energy sector. So we updated the coal guidance both on the domestic side and the export side and then tried to give you some view into the broader economy.

是的，Ken，關於今年的 EPS，你說得對，我們確實指引 EPS 以申報基礎（reported basis）來看，將較 2015 年我們創紀錄交出的每股 2 美元下滑。我們試著就一些一次性項目提供指引，包括我們正在比較基期中所包含的違約金（liquidated damages）與資產出售，以及能源產業持續轉型的影響。因此我們更新了煤炭指引，涵蓋國內與出口兩端，並嘗試讓你對更廣泛的經濟有一些看法。

And clearly, those are on the industrial side being suppressed by a combination of low commodity prices and the strong US dollar. But this Company has remained relentlessly focused on driving the things that are most within our control. As you saw our performance this year, or 2015 I should say, in terms of the right-sizing that we did and the efficiency gains that we delivered in 2015 and the projections of $200 million as we get into 2016, we've got an improving service product.

而且很明顯地，工業端受到低商品價格與強勢美元的組合所壓抑。但本公司始終堅定不移地專注於推動那些最在我們掌控之內的事項。如你所見，我們今年——應該說 2015 年——在規模調整（right-sizing）以及效率提升方面的表現，以及我們在進入 2016 年時所預期的 2 億美元（效益），我們的服務產品正在改善。

Fredrik just mentioned the strong pricing for our shareholders. It's likely going to be a unique year for us in 2016, and after that, we fully anticipate EPS growth toward that path of mid-60s longer term.

Fredrik 剛才提到我們為股東帶來的強勁定價。2016 年對我們而言很可能會是相當特殊的一年，而在那之後，我們完全預期 EPS 成長將回到通往長期 60% 中段（營運比率）那條路徑上。

And then Ken, in this one very broad question that you asked, I'll come back to the international losses that we referred to. We've had several now over a period of time that will be with us throughout 2016. And as we think about where we are, we're growing with our existing customers very well, but there has been some customers that we lost.

另外 Ken，針對你這個非常廣泛的問題，我再回到我們提到的國際業務流失。我們在一段時間內已經發生了幾筆，並且將在 2016 年全年持續影響我們。就我們目前的情況來看，我們與既有客戶的成長表現很好，但確實也有一些客戶我們失去了。

And clearly, from our perspective, we feel that we have a very strong service product right now. We have what we think is a superior network reach. So the only thing we can assume is that there are factors outside of our control that has allowed us to lose that traffic.

而且很明確地，從我們的角度來看，我們認為目前我們的服務產品非常強。我們也擁有我們認為更具優勢的網路覆蓋範圍。因此我們唯一能推測的是，有一些我們無法控制的因素，導致我們失去那些運量。

Great. Appreciate the time and insight. Thank you, guys.

很好。感謝你撥冗與提供見解。謝謝各位。

Thank you. Our next question will be coming from Brandon Oglenski of Barclays. Your line is open.

謝謝。下一個問題來自 Barclays 的 Brandon Oglenski。你的線路已開通。

Good morning, Brandon.

早安，Brandon。

Good morning, everyone. Thanks for taking my question. And similarly, pretty good results in the difficult environment. So can we talk more broadly about what could become a manageable level of volume decline where we could think earnings get back to flat, we can get back to operating ratio improvement, or maybe you're not even suggesting you can't get operating ratio improvement this year. But can you talk to levels in the network where you'd feel comfortable saying our cost performance and our efficiency plan can get earnings to right size, if not even go up a little bit?

各位早安。謝謝讓我提問。同樣地，在艱難環境下結果相當不錯。那我們能否更宏觀地談談：運量下滑到什麼程度會是可管理的水準，使我們可以認為獲利能回到持平、營運比率能再度改善；或者你甚至不是在暗示今年無法改善營運比率。但你能否談談在網路運量處於哪些水準時，你會有信心表示我們的成本表現與效率計畫能讓獲利完成適當的規模調整（right size），甚至還能小幅成長？

I think on a 2016 basis, obviously, as I mentioned, it's going to be a bit of a unique year, continuing resets in the energy environment. And on the operating ratio question for 2016, obviously, it's going to be difficult to sustain a sub-70 performance, especially given what we're cycling and the coal projections that we've given you and the uncertainty in the industrial economy.

我想以 2016 年來看，顯然如我提到的，這將會是相當特殊的一年，能源環境仍在持續重設。而就 2016 年的營運比率問題而言，顯然要維持 70% 以下的表現會很困難，特別是考量到我們正在比較基期中所包含的項目、我們給出的煤炭預測，以及工業經濟的不確定性。

But then again, it's January the 14th. It's the middle of the first month of the year. We've got a great network, as Fredrik's mentioned. We've got a track record of success. We have improving service products.

不過話說回來，今天是1月14日。這是一年第一個月的中旬。正如Fredrik提到的，我們擁有很強的網路。我們有成功的實績。我們的服務產品也在持續改善。

So we're going to be relentless in terms of our focus on the things that are most within our control. And so those are the things take give us confidence that the future beyond 2016 is a positive one.

因此，我們會在聚焦於最能由我們掌控的事項上毫不鬆懈。而這些因素讓我們有信心，2016年之後的未來是正面的。

Is there any way though to quantify for folks on the call just at a broad level, if volume's down low single digits or mid single digits, does that become more problematic? I'm trying to quantify for folks where the loss in earnings could stop.

不過，有沒有辦法在較宏觀的層面上，替電話會議上的各位量化一下：如果運量下滑是低個位數或中個位數百分比，是否會變得更棘手？我想替大家量化一下，獲利下滑可能會在哪裡止住。

Brandon, not to be repetitive, but obviously, the one timers, clearly those could be easily defined. I think we've given very strong guidance as to where we see the coal market this year. Obviously, a little bit of potential downside in the export. It's a little hard to gauge this early.

Brandon，不想重複，但很明顯，一次性因素（one-timers）是可以很容易界定的。我認為我們已就今年煤炭市場的看法給出了非常明確的指引。顯然，出口方面可能還有一些下行空間。在年初這麼早的時點，確實有點難以判斷。

I think probably the wild card is the rest of the economy, and it is very early in the year to try to gauge that. Obviously, I think if you look at most prognosticators, they're saying the first half of the year probably looks weak on the industrial side, but potentially, it recovers. And we don't really have a better crystal ball than that a couple weeks into the year, and that's probably the wild card in the entire thing.

我想最大的變數可能是整體經濟，而在年初要評估這點還太早。顯然，如果你看多數預測者，他們都說上半年工業端可能偏弱，但之後有機會回升。而在一年才過了幾週的情況下，我們也沒有比這更好的水晶球；這大概就是整件事最大的變數。

We're going to drive the efficiencies over $200 million. We will take actions to also reflect the lower volumes, which will be in addition to what we do on the productivity side. And I think with those parameters, it should be able to give you some relative idea of what the expectations could be.

我們將推動超過2億美元的效率提升。我們也會採取行動以反映較低的運量，這些將會是在生產力提升之外的額外措施。我認為在這些參數下，應該能讓你對可能的預期有一個相對的概念。

Okay, guys, thank you.

好的，各位，謝謝。

Thank you. Our next question will be coming from the line of Brian Ossenbeck of JPMorgan. Your line is open.

謝謝。下一個問題來自JPMorgan的Brian Ossenbeck。您的線路已開通。

Good morning, Brian.

早安，Brian。

Good morning. Thanks for taking my call. I was curious, in the 19 million tons per quarter guidance you have in domestic, what level of destocking from inventories do you have reflected in there?

早安。謝謝接聽我的提問。我想請教，在你們對國內市場每季1,900萬噸的指引中，反映了多少庫存去化（destocking）的幅度？

You've outlined some downside risk to export coal. I was just wondering what your thinking is on the domestic side from the utility stockpile and also what level you think natural gas would be?

你們提到出口煤有一些下行風險。我想了解你們對國內端的看法：從公用事業的庫存堆存（stockpile）角度，以及你們認為天然氣價格/水準會落在什麼位置？

Obviously, we don't foresee natural gas rebounding significant than from where it is today. And as a result, most likely for the rest of the year, we expect our coal plants that we serve to be dispatched last. We are seeing obviously excess stockpiles right now. If we look at where we are, we're probably in the 110s or so in terms of the south and more in the 80 range in the northern part of our network. We should probably be in the 55 to 70 range.

顯然，我們不預期天然氣會從目前水準大幅反彈。因此，在今年剩餘時間，我們預期我們所服務的燃煤電廠很可能會被最後調度（dispatched last）。我們目前確實看到庫存堆存偏高。以我們目前的狀況來看，南部大概在110天左右，北部網路則更多在80天左右的區間。我們理想上應該在55到70天的區間。

So as we think about that 19 million of domestic coal, it really breaks down into two components. One is that utility coal, which is about 14 million tons and steel industrial, about 5 million tons, to make up the 19 million. We did about 13.6 million here in the first quarter. And so we're essentially saying we will continue that run rate.

因此，談到國內煤炭1,900萬噸，其實可拆成兩個部分。一個是公用事業用煤，大約1,400萬噸；鋼鐵與工業用煤約500萬噸，合計1,900萬噸。我們第一季做了約1,360萬噸。所以我們基本上是在說，我們會維持這樣的運行速率（run rate）。

We expect some destocking to occur over the year, but how much really will be dependent on the weather since we now are dispatched last, we're essentially peakers, so we're very much weather dependent. If you have favorable weather conditions from a railroad perspective or utility perspective, then you can see a more significant destocking.

我們預期今年會出現一些去庫存，但幅度多大，實際上取決於天氣，因為我們現在是最後被調度，基本上屬於尖峰機組（peakers），所以非常仰賴天氣。如果從鐵路或公用事業的角度來看天氣條件有利，你就可能看到更顯著的去庫存。

If you have continued the sort of weather pattern we saw in the fourth quarter where heating degree days were actually off by about 25% to 30% off normal, then that will be much more challenging. But hopefully, we won't see that and we will see some destocking occur within the guidance that we provided.

如果天氣型態持續像第四季那樣，當時取暖度日數（heating degree days）比常態低了約25%到30%，那就會更具挑戰。但希望不會如此，我們也希望在我們提供的指引範圍內能看到一些去庫存發生。

Okay, thanks. And the other one related to gas, that would be coal to gas switching, difficult to tell but from a structural perspective, are there any pockets in the network, perhaps in the north near the Marcellus and Utica Shale where you would expect to see some more gas plants being built that could perhaps provide a little bit of incremental pressure on the rest to the network?

好的，謝謝。另外一個與天然氣相關的問題：煤轉氣（coal-to-gas switching）很難判斷，但從結構性角度，在你們的網路中是否有任何區域——例如北部靠近Marcellus與Utica頁岩區——你們預期會有更多燃氣電廠興建，可能對網路其他部分帶來一些額外壓力？

No, I think that all the switching that can occur already occurred back in March or April of last year. What we have seen is in some instances, we are seeing some of the coal burners actually now burning some natural gas in conjunction to coal firing it with natural gas, that has had a little bit of an incremental additional negative impact on us. But all the switching that can occur has already occurred, and we are being dispatched last or the utilities that we serve are being dispatched last.

沒有，我認為所有可能發生的轉換其實在去年3月或4月就已經發生了。我們看到的是，在某些情況下，一些燃煤機組現在會同時燒一些天然氣，也就是在燃煤的同時搭配天然氣燃燒，這對我們造成了一點額外的負面增量影響。但所有能發生的轉換都已經發生了，而我們或我們所服務的公用事業現在都是最後被調度。

Okay. Thanks for your time.

好的。謝謝你們的時間。

Thank you. Our next question will be coming from Chris Wetherbee from Citi. Your line is open.

謝謝。下一個問題來自花旗（Citi）的Chris Wetherbee。您的線路已開通。

Thanks, good morning. Wanted to ask about the coal network and where you are in terms of potential structural changes that you're doing. You said some actions in the fourth quarter. I'm curious what else can be done as you move forward through 2016 given the outlook.

謝謝，早安。我想問一下煤炭網路，以及你們在推動潛在結構性調整方面目前進展到哪裡。你們提到第四季採取了一些行動。考量展望，隨著2016年往後走，還能做些什麼？

And then maybe how that ties into productivity and benefits that you're getting and the great run rate in the fourth quarter. I'm curious what you could potentially be the upside to that $200 million number in 2016.

另外也想問這如何連結到你們的生產力與所取得的效益，以及第四季非常好的運行速率。我想了解，2016年那個2億美元數字，潛在上行空間可能會是多少。

Okay, Chris. Good morning, this is Cindy. As far as structural costs, you did mention the actions that we took in the fourth quarter. And as I talked in our third-quarter release, everything is on the table, not just in our coal network but also in our broader footprint. And our opportunities that we're looking for are to drive density, maximize asset utilization, and drive out cost.

好的，Chris。早安，我是Cindy。就結構性成本而言，你確實提到了我們在第四季採取的行動。而且如同我在第三季發布時所談到的，一切都在檯面上，不僅是我們的煤炭網路，也包括我們更廣泛的營運版圖。我們正在尋找的機會是提升密度（density）、最大化資產利用率，並降低成本。

Facilities are still -- maybe some opportunities there. I think line segments will take a little bit more time. They involve customers and other constituencies there that make those a little bit more longer term, but we are looking at all of these, and as we find opportunities and make announcements, we'll obviously share that publicly. But we have not given up on continuing to find ways to make our footprint much more consistent with the demand that is put on it.

設施方面仍然——可能還有一些機會。我認為線路區段（line segments）會需要更長時間。因為那牽涉到客戶與其他利害關係人，使得這些更偏向長期，但我們正在檢視所有這些；當我們找到機會並做出公告時，當然會對外公開分享。但我們並沒有放棄持續尋找方法，讓我們的版圖更符合其所承受的需求。

And you asked another question about productivity. Could I ask you to repeat that?

你還問了另一個關於生產力的問題。我可以請你再重複一次嗎？

Sure, just wanted to get a sense of maybe how the coal network ties into the productivity, the $200 million of productivity? And then given the run rate that you had in the fourth quarter which was a bit above that level, how do you think about maybe potential upside? Is there more that we could see from productivity in 2016? Thanks.

當然，我只是想了解煤炭網路如何與生產力（那2億美元的生產力提升）連結。另外，考量你們第四季的運行速率略高於那個水準，你們如何看待潛在的上行空間？2016年我們是否可能看到更多來自生產力的貢獻？謝謝。

So thinking about productivity, we've said we're going to be able to achieve $200 million in productivity savings in addition to the right-sizing actions that we're taking. I think when you look at the $200 million of productivity, about $100 million is already -- those initiatives have already been completed, and we feel really good about that. And the other initiatives are in flight and we feel good about that.

談到生產力，我們先前提到，除了我們正在採取的規模調整行動之外，我們還能夠實現2億美元的生產力節省。我認為，當你看這2億美元的生產力時，其中約1億美元已經——那些措施已經完成了，我們對此感覺非常好。而其他措施也正在推進中，我們同樣很有信心。

There isn't necessarily a tie or non-tie to the coal network. It's all -- it's broad-based and it's everywhere. And as far as the right-sizing initiatives, just I'll comment on that, even though it's not necessarily your question; it might be something you're thinking about. The way to think about that is the fourth quarter is the past is prologue. We will be relentless on driving out costs that are volume-related as we see demand go down. And then in the opposite, as Michael mentioned, as we see opportunities where demand comes back, we will be able to bring back those resources.

這不一定與煤炭網路有關或無關。這是——它是廣泛性的，無所不在。至於規模調整的措施，我也稍微評論一下，雖然這不一定是你的問題；但可能是你正在思考的事情。理解這點的方式是：第四季的過去就是未來的序章。當我們看到需求下降時，我們會毫不鬆懈地把與運量相關的成本降下來。相反地，如Michael提到的，當我們看到需求回升的機會時，我們也能把那些資源再補回來。

That's helpful. Thanks for the time. Appreciate it.

這很有幫助。謝謝你撥冗。感謝。

Thank you. Our next question will be coming from Tom Wadewitz from UBS. Your line is open.

謝謝。我們的下一個問題來自UBS的Tom Wadewitz。您的線路已開通。

Good morning, Tom.

早安，Tom。

Yes, good morning. Wanted to ask you how maybe train starts, just a brief follow-on on that. And maybe on pricing, I don't know if you want to give me a two for one or not.

是的，早安。想請教你關於列車開行（train starts）的一點問題，算是簡短的追問。另外也想問一下定價，我不確定你是否願意一次回答兩個問題。

The train, Cindy, just a quick, how much were train starts down in fourth quarter and maybe what that could be in 2016? And then on the pricing, I don't know if you answered this one, Ken was on earlier, but did you give us a sense of what core price or same-store price might be in 2016 or is that something that you can comment on? Thank you.

關於列車，Cindy，簡單問一下，第四季列車開行下降了多少？以及2016年可能會是什麼情況？另外關於定價，我不確定你是否已經回答過這題，Ken先前在線上，但你們是否能讓我們了解一下2016年的核心價格或同店價格可能會是什麼，或是你們能否對此做些評論？謝謝。

Let me just take the pricing question, because that's probably the simplest one. We really don't forecast pricing. We're going to provide you each and every quarter where we come out. The key thing is that you should know that we're always focused on price and making sure we get the appropriate value so we continue to reinvest in our business.

我先回答定價的問題，因為這可能是最簡單的。我們其實不會預測定價。我們會在每一季公布業績時，逐季提供給你們。關鍵是你應該知道，我們始終專注於價格，並確保我們取得適當的價值，讓我們能持續再投資於業務。

As we think about our pricing right now, we have an incredibly strong service product. It's improved significantly over the last six months, as we now have the resources in place. There's a lot of contracts that we still haven't been able to touch since really the step-function change that occurred in early 2014.

就我們目前的定價來看，我們擁有非常強的服務產品。在過去六個月已顯著改善，因為我們現在已把資源配置到位。自2014年初發生那次階躍式變化以來，仍有許多合約我們其實還沒有機會去觸及。

The contract side on the trucking side is still holding up okay, even though the spot market is very soft. And they key thing for our team is to continue to sell through this down cycle and make sure we provide value to our customers by selling a longer-term commitment in terms of making sure they have access to our network and so that we work through this down cycle right now and sell for the long term.

卡車運輸那邊的合約市場仍算撐得住，儘管現貨市場非常疲弱。對我們團隊而言，關鍵是要在這個下行週期中持續銷售，並透過銷售較長期的承諾來為客戶提供價值，確保他們能使用我們的網路，讓我們一起度過目前的下行週期，並以長期為目標來銷售。

Tom, on starts, I would say probably about 1,000 starts per week that are scheduled starts are out, and obviously starts will come out that are volume related more on the unit train side.

Tom，關於開行，我會說大概每週有約1,000班原本排定的開行被取消了；而且很明顯地，還會有更多與運量相關的開行被取消，主要是在單元列車（unit train）那一側。

Can you give that at percentage change, like what percent train starts were down maybe in fourth quarter and what they might be in 2016?

你能用百分比變化來說嗎？例如第四季列車開行大概下降了多少百分比，以及2016年可能會是多少？

I don't have a percentage right in front of me there, Tom, but I can tell you that our train length initiatives have obviously driven a lot of this opportunity and --

Tom，我手邊沒有直接的百分比數字，但我可以告訴你，我們的列車延長（train length）措施顯然帶來了很多這方面的機會，而且——

From what, from the beginning of the year, Cindy, about 15%.

從年初到現在，Cindy，大約是15%。

For the total year of 2015 they're up 8%, from 2014 versus 2015, and in the fourth quarter they're up 14% from the fourth quarter of 2014 to the fourth quarter of 2015.

2015年全年相較2014年增加了8%，而第四季相較2014年第四季增加了14%。

The declines year over year in train starts you're saying?

你是說列車開行的年對年下降嗎？

I'm saying train lengths in terms of --

我是說列車長度方面——

Train lengths, okay, gain in train lengths. Okay, sorry.

列車長度，好的，是列車長度的提升。好的，抱歉。

Which then translates into 1,000 starts per week which we talked about. So it gives you a percentage and gives you some sense of where we stand on a percentage basis.

而這就轉化為我們提到的每週1,000班開行。所以這能給你一個百分比，也讓你對我們在百分比層面上的狀況有些概念。

Okay. Yes. Those are strong gains, especially given the volume headwinds. Okay. All right. Thank you for the time.

好的。是的。這些增幅很強，尤其是在運量逆風之下。好的。好。謝謝你撥冗。

Thank you. Our next question will be coming from Allison Landry from Credit Suisse. Your line is open.

謝謝。我們的下一個問題來自Credit Suisse的Allison Landry。您的線路已開通。

Good morning.

早安。

Good morning. Thanks. So given all the debate surrounding M&A and both of the eastern rails talking about getting to a 65 OR over the next few years and some others saying 60 should be the bogie. First, could you help to bookend a time frame for when you think you can achieve the 65? And what, if any, your plan is from a longer-term perspective to close the gap with your peers to ultimately achieve a 60 OR?

早安，謝謝。謝謝。鑑於圍繞併購（M&A）的各種討論，以及兩家東部鐵路公司都在談未來幾年要達到65的營運比率（OR），也有人說60才應該是門檻。首先，你能否協助我們界定一下你們認為何時可以達到65的大致時間範圍？以及從更長期的角度來看，你們是否有任何計畫縮小與同業之間的差距，最終達到60的OR？

Hey, Allison. It's Frank. Obviously, we can't comment on what other railroads are projecting into the future. But the challenging environment that we see in 2016 does not in any way diminish our confidence in the ability to deliver the mid-60s operating ratio longer term that we have guided you toward in the past and again today. As you know, we've got an awfully good network, a world-class network in the east, and you've seen our success over time, both in terms of delivering margin improvement and the cost takeout that Cindy referenced, in addition to the operating side on the G&A side.

嗨，Allison。我是Frank。很明顯地，我們無法評論其他鐵路公司對未來的預測。但我們在2016年看到的具挑戰性的環境，絲毫不會削弱我們對於長期交付中段60%營運比率（operating ratio）的信心；這也是我們過去以及今天再次向你們指引的目標。如你所知，我們在東部擁有非常好的網路，是世界級的網路；而你也看到我們長期以來的成功，無論是在利潤率改善，或是Cindy提到的成本削減，以及營運面與G&A面。

The efforts that we're taking now, especially in an improving environment in the future, is going to help us improve margins in a meaningful basis as that improves. But as we sit here today, based on the forward view of 2016, it just seems a little inappropriate for us to guide on a specific time frame right now.

我們現在所採取的努力，特別是在未來環境改善時，將有助於我們在環境回升時以有意義的幅度改善利潤率。但就我們今天所處的位置、基於對2016年的前瞻觀點來看，我們此刻對特定時間表給出指引，似乎有點不太合適。

Okay. And just a clarification question, do you think that at some point in the future, is there anything structural that would prevent CSX from achieving a 60 OR?

好的。再澄清一個問題，你認為在未來某個時點，是否有任何結構性因素會阻止CSX達到60的OR？

We don't see anything structural that would impede us from getting to the mid-60s and through the mid-60s. Obviously, it's going to depend on a whole host of things. And again, as Michael said, the crystal ball is a little cloudy in 2016, and obviously as that clarity improves, we'll be able to give you more guidance around that.

我們看不到任何結構性因素會妨礙我們達到中段60%，並且進一步穿越中段60%。當然，這將取決於許多因素。而且如Michael所說，2016年的水晶球有點模糊；隨著能見度提升，我們就能就此提供更多指引。

Great. Thank you for the time.

很好。謝謝你撥冗。

Thank you. The next question will be coming from Rob Salmon from Deutsche Bank. Your line is open.

謝謝。下一個問題來自Deutsche Bank的Rob Salmon。您的線路已開通。

Good morning, Rob.

早安，Rob。

Hey, good morning and thanks for the question -- Thanks for taking my question. Fred, if I could take it back to the intermodal discussion. You had alluded to in some international contract losses that have happened through the year.

嗨，早安，謝謝你的提問——謝謝讓我提問。Fred，如果可以的話，我想回到聯運（intermodal）的討論。你提到過今年有一些國際合約流失的情況。

In the guidance it's implying a roughly 70,000-unit sequential decline, which is much more than normal we would see in Q1 versus Q4. Was there an incremental contract loss in the fourth quarter or are you guys contemplating additional inventory destocking that we should be thinking about in the first quarter?

在指引中，你們暗示環比大約會下滑 70,000 個單位，這比我們通常在第一季相較第四季看到的幅度大得多。第四季是否有額外的合約流失，或是你們是否在考量第一季還會有進一步的庫存去化（destocking），是我們需要納入思考的？

I'm not sure which guidance you are looking at. We have the fact that we have the intermodal business flat, is that what you're referring to?

我不確定你指的是哪一項指引。我們提到聯運業務持平，你是指這個嗎？

Yes, it's an in aggregate, intermodal carloads being roughly flat. I was just taking a flattish number and comparing that sequentially to the fourth-quarter carloads that we saw and just curious what's driving the worse-than-normal drop off in Q1, whether it's an incremental international loss or some inventory destocking that you've got contemplated or something you're hearing from customers?

是的，整體來看，聯運裝載量（intermodal carloads）大致持平。我只是用一個接近平坦的數字，拿來和我們看到的第四季裝載量做環比比較，想了解是什麼因素導致第一季出現比正常更大的下滑：是額外的國際業務流失，或是你們預期會有一些庫存去化，或是你們從客戶那邊聽到的其他因素？

Sequentially, fourth quarter to first quarter is a very different story, obviously with the peak that we're seeing in the fourth quarter, especially around some of our partial business and so forth. I think that's more of a normal thing.

就環比而言，第四季到第一季本來就是很不一樣的情況，顯然第四季有我們看到的高峰，尤其是在部分業務等方面。我認為那比較屬於正常現象。

If you think about our intermodal business, there's two components to it. We've talked about the international side where we have had some competitive losses, and you're going to continue to see that throughout 2016. However, on the domestic side, we are having good continued success with our H2R initiative, and we're also seeing some additional outsize growth here over the last probably six months and will probably continue the first half of next year.

如果你看我們的聯運業務，它有兩個組成部分。我們談過國際端，我們確實有一些競爭性流失，而你在 2016 年會持續看到這個影響。不過在國內端，我們的 H2R 計畫持續取得良好成效，而且過去大概六個月我們也看到一些額外、超出預期的成長，這種趨勢可能會延續到明年上半年。

We have one domestic customer that is continuing to shift additional traffic to us, which is really a decision that they have made; there's nothing that we have done to incentivize that. They seem to have wanted to diversify their portfolio. And as a result, we think the domestic business will continue to be strong, at least for the first half of the year and probably beyond that. We still think there's opportunity to grow even if that shift subsides.

我們有一位國內客戶持續把更多貨量轉到我們這裡，這其實是他們自己做的決定；我們並沒有做任何激勵來促成這件事。他們似乎希望分散其組合。因此，我們認為國內業務至少在上半年、甚至之後都會維持強勁。即使這種轉移趨勢趨緩，我們仍然認為還有成長機會。

Got it. And as a follow-up, when do you lap the final piece of the international competitor losses? Should I think about that as Q4 of 2016 or earlier?

了解。追問一下，你們何時會把國際端競爭對手流失的最後一部分「比較基期」跑完（lap）？我應該把它想成 2016 年第四季，還是更早？

Yes, that is correct, Q4 of 2016.

是的，沒錯，是 2016 年第四季。

And is that the end or beginning?

那是結束，還是開始？

No, no, so we will have one account that we're just really kicking in and having lost here in the first quarter, so you will see it [the whole] through all of 2016.

不是、不是；我們會有一個帳戶在第一季才真正開始流失，所以你會在 2016 年全年都看到它（的影響）。

Okay, that makes sense. Thanks for the time.

好的，這就合理了。謝謝你撥時間。

Thank you. The next question will be coming from Alex Vecchio from Morgan Stanley. Your line is open.

謝謝。下一個問題來自摩根士丹利（Morgan Stanley）的 Alex Vecchio。你的線路已開通。

Alex, good morning.

Alex，早安。

Good morning, thanks for taking the time. My question is with respect to the guidance for earnings to be down next year. You had called out about $180 million of tailwinds in 2015 from property gains and liquidated damages, which is roughly $0.11 to $0.12 a share. So my question is if we were to normalize for those numbers, would you still expect your core, if you will, EPS to be down in 2016 or would it be roughly flat if we were to normalize for those figures?

早安，謝謝撥冗。我的問題是關於你們指引中提到明年盈餘會下滑。你們提到 2015 年因不動產處分利益與違約金（liquidated damages）帶來約 1.8 億美元的順風，約合每股 0.11 到 0.12 美元。所以我的問題是：如果把這些因素正常化（剔除），你們是否仍預期 2016 年的核心（如果這麼說的話）每股盈餘會下滑？還是如果正常化後大致持平？

So I think we gave you a couple other data points to look at. Clearly, we gave you new coal guidance today that is down from what we had telegraphed on the third-quarter call. So that's clearly something to think through. And then on the broader merchandise side with the industrial sector a little sluggish here, so that's some thoughts.

我想我們也給了你幾個其他可以參考的資料點。很明顯，我們今天給了新的煤炭指引，低於我們在第三季電話會議上所預告的水準。所以這顯然是需要納入推演的部分。另外在更廣泛的商品（merchandise）面，工業部門目前有點疲弱，這也是一些考量。

But then again, on the other side, continued strong pricing for an improved service product and the efficiencies and right-sizing, so there's going to be some pluses and minus as we go forward. But in terms of your original way of thinking about it, you do have to normalize it, and then really look at the pluses and minuses from there.

但另一方面，針對改善後的服務產品，我們仍有持續強勁的定價，以及效率提升與規模調整（right-sizing），所以往前看會有一些正負因素交錯。就你原本的思考方式而言，你確實需要先把它正常化，然後再從那裡去看各項正負因素。

The other thing I would add to that, Alex, is obviously over the last couple years, we've been able to grow our other markets to offset the time the decline in coal, so we're going to have continuing decline in coal here and an uncertain industrial economy. So again, that's the piece that's least clear, but I think it really depends on what happens with the rest of that market.

Alex，我還想補充一點：過去幾年我們能夠擴大其他市場，以抵銷煤炭下滑的影響；但接下來煤炭仍會持續下滑，而工業景氣也不確定。所以這一塊最不明朗，但我認為很大程度取決於該市場其他部分的走勢。

We know we'll get the productivity. We know we'll continue to network size properly. We know we'll do the pricing. So really the wild card in that question would be what does the rest of the economy do.

我們知道我們會拿到生產力提升。我們知道我們會持續把路網規模調整到合適水準。我們知道我們會做定價。所以這個問題真正的變數在於：整體經濟其他部分會怎麼走。

That makes sense. That's helpful. Just a quick follow-up on the first-quarter guidance. Can you maybe help us quantify a little bit how much of a year-over-year tailwind you'd expect the lower incentive comp to be on the labor expense line in the first quarter and maybe through 2016?

了解。這很有幫助。再快速追問一下第一季指引。你能否幫我們量化一下：在第一季、以及可能在 2016 年全年，較低的激勵性薪酬（incentive comp）在勞務費用項下，預期會帶來多少年對年的順風？

Yes, so obviously on the incentive comp, the plan resets at the beginning of every year. So we had favorability in the back half of 2015 as the year played out differently than we had originally projected, and we disclosed that to you on a quarterly basis, so be on the lookout for that one.

可以。顯然在激勵性薪酬方面，方案會在每年年初重設。因此，2015 年下半年隨著年度實際走勢與我們原先預估不同，我們出現了有利因素；我們也按季向你們揭露，所以請留意這一點。

In terms of the Q1 EPS, obviously based on the cycling of the $100 million in liquidated damages and a different demand environment of the first quarter of 2015 versus the first quarter of 2016, especially in coal, that's going to impact us. And then the demand environment that we talked about. Again, you're going to have to look at the improved service and the right-sizing and the efficiencies and the pricing performance, and that will ultimately help us give some guidance in terms of how far quarter one of 2016 will be down versus reported 2015.

就第一季 EPS 而言，顯然由於 1 億美元違約金的比較基期效應（cycling），以及 2015 年第一季與 2016 年第一季需求環境不同，尤其是在煤炭方面，這會影響我們。再加上我們談到的需求環境。同樣地，你需要看改善後的服務、規模調整與效率、以及定價表現；這些最終會幫助我們在指引上說明 2016 年第一季相較 2015 年已報告數字會下滑多少。

Okay, that makes sense. Helpful. Appreciate the time. Thank you.

好的，了解。很有幫助。感謝撥冗。謝謝。

Thank you. Our next question will be coming from Jason Seidl from Cowen. Your line is open.

謝謝。下一個問題來自 Cowen 的 Jason Seidl。你的線路已開通。

Good morning, Jason.

Jason，早安。

Good morning, gentlemen, how is everyone?

各位早安，大家都好嗎？

Great.

很好。

Fred, I want to go back to something I think you commented about, your truck competitive pricing. You mentioned that although truck spot pricing was down, contract was holding up. If contract starts to roll over to meet where spot is, how much pressure is that going to put on intermodal pricing? How should we look at that?

Fred，我想回到你剛才提到的一點：你們與卡車競爭相關的定價。你提到雖然卡車即期（spot）運價下滑，但合約運價仍撐得住。如果合約運價開始回落、向即期水準靠攏，這會對聯運定價造成多大壓力？我們應該怎麼看待？

I do think that we are holding up okay. It's clearly gotten softer throughout the year, even on the contract side, and intermodal side is where we do see most of that direct pressure. Now, you know that still we have a probably 10% to 15% gap between what the truck prices are and where our prices are.

我確實認為我們目前撐得還可以。很明顯，整個年度以來，即使在合約端也變得更疲弱，而聯運端是我們看到大部分直接壓力的地方。不過你也知道，卡車價格與我們價格之間大概仍有 10% 到 15% 的差距。

One of the key things in the intermodal space is a strong service product. And as we think about our service product here this year entering into 2016, it is clear that it's very different than it was a year ago, and that is also going to be very helpful as we approach contract season and we put new contracts in place.

聯運領域的一個關鍵是強而有力的服務產品。當我們看今年的服務產品並進入 2016 年時，很明顯它和一年前非常不同；這也會在我們接近合約季、並簽訂新合約時提供很大幫助。

Okay. But in terms of if you just say you make some service improvements and you see the truck pricing take a step down, is it going to be tougher to maintain your pricing, even with a superior service product?

好的。但就算你只是說你們做了一些服務改善，然後看到卡車運價下調一個檔次，即使你們的服務產品更優，維持你們的定價是不是會更困難？

I think it's too early to tell. I think we've tried to stay away from forecast pricing, but directionally, you're right. Obviously, the longer this softness is there, the harder it is going to be to maintain.

我認為現在判斷還太早。我想我們一直盡量避免去預測定價，但從方向上來看，你說得沒錯。顯然，這種疲弱狀況持續得越久，就越難維持。

The key challenge for our team is to make sure that our customers are aware that while there's a softness here right now in 2016, I think all of us still know that the macro drivers that we talked about for a long time are still prevalent.

我們團隊的關鍵挑戰，是要確保客戶了解：雖然2016年目前出現一些疲弱，但我想我們都仍然知道，我們長期談到的那些總體驅動因素依然存在。

As we think about some of the productivity challenges that the trucking industry will face as we get to 2017 with the electronic logs, as unemployment continues to come down it's going to be harder to retain the drivers with outsized increases in driver pay, so we are facing a softness. I think also though, our customers are acknowledging that is probably temporary, as some of these macro factors will come back into play.

當我們展望2017年，卡車運輸業在導入電子行車紀錄（電子日誌）後將面臨一些生產力挑戰；同時失業率持續下降，若不以大幅提高司機薪資，將更難留住司機，因此我們正面臨一段疲弱期。不過我也認為，我們的客戶也承認這可能是暫時的，因為其中一些總體因素將會再度發揮作用。

Fantastic, and my follow-up, Michael, given the recent comments by the STB on mergers and also the proposed merger or the talked about merger between CP and NS, what's the likelihood that you see that the current Board would approve a combination?

很好，我的追問是，Michael，鑑於STB最近對併購的評論，以及CP與NS之間提出或被討論的合併案，你認為現任委員會批准合併的可能性有多大？

That's a very timely and difficult question to answer, Jason. As you know, there hasn't been any mergers under the current regulatory environment. That is a really complicated question; it's probably better addressed by the STB. But as you saw by their letter last week, they're going to be very focused on, one, the public interest of the potential merger, potential downstream effects. And I think the thing that's probably the most uncertain, but probably going to be there for sure, the question of extent, is what regulatory costs will be put on this merger.

Jason，這個問題非常切題，但也很難回答。如你所知，在目前的監管環境下，還沒有任何併購案獲准。這是個非常複雜的問題；或許由STB來回答會更合適。但正如你從他們上週的信函所看到的，他們會非常聚焦於：第一，潛在合併是否符合公共利益，以及可能的下游影響。而我認為最不確定、但幾乎肯定會出現的（差別只在程度）是：這宗合併將被加諸哪些監管成本。

Okay. I appreciate the time as always, gentlemen.

好的。一如既往，感謝各位撥冗。

Thank you. Our next question will be coming from Matt Troy from Nomura Securities. Your line is open.

謝謝。下一個問題來自野村證券（Nomura Securities）的Matt Troy。請開線。

Good morning, Matt.

早安，Matt。

Thank you. Good morning, everyone. Just wanted to ask with respect to pricing, obviously rails peripherally or tangentially tied to the commodities super cycle, which is winding down. You've got some more bearish people out there talking about rail pricing being vulnerable, anecdotes of carriers cutting price to incent volume.

謝謝。各位早安。我想就定價方面請教一下：顯然鐵路運輸在某種程度上（或間接地）與大宗商品超級循環相關，而這個循環正在走下坡。外面有些更悲觀的人在談鐵路定價可能變得脆弱，也有一些傳聞說承運商為了刺激運量而降價。

I just wanted to hear from you or confirm with you that you still remain committed to inflation-plus type pricing, consistent with similar years and that there hasn't been a change in thought or philosophy that perhaps price might be a lever you might use to incent volume in 2016.

我想聽聽你們的看法，或請你們確認：你們仍然致力於「通膨以上」的定價方式，與過去類似年度一致；而且在思維或理念上沒有改變，不會在2016年把價格當作刺激運量的槓桿。

I think our philosophy is still there, hasn't changed in terms of making sure that we do value pricing that reflects the value price of our customers and being able to continue to reinvest in our business. At the end of the day, it goes back to what is the second-best option for our customers, from a service and a price perspective. As we think through each one of them, we still think that we have an opportunity to continue to make sure we get the pricing that we need to continue to reinvest in our business, which benefits both our shareholders but also our customers, as we continue to strengthen our infrastructure.

我認為我們的理念仍然存在，沒有改變：確保我們採取價值定價，反映我們為客戶創造的價值，並能持續再投資於我們的業務。歸根結底，這要回到一個問題：從服務與價格的角度來看，客戶的次佳替代方案是什麼。當我們逐一評估時，我們仍然認為有機會確保取得我們所需的定價，以便持續再投資於業務；這不僅讓股東受益，也讓客戶受益，因為我們會持續強化基礎設施。

There is one market where we have consistently said that it makes sense in this commodity downturn to be flexible, because we've seen we've got additional demand by doing so and that's our export coal market. And we've taken some additional action here in the fourth quarter to reflect the very, very difficult and challenging environment for them.

有一個市場我們一直都說，在這波商品下行週期中保持彈性是合理的，因為我們看到這麼做能帶來額外需求，那就是我們的出口煤市場。而我們在第四季也採取了一些額外措施，以反映他們所處的極其艱難且具挑戰性的環境。

But in the rest of the markets, we work with our customers in partnership and try to figure out what the best service product is. And at the same time, also make sure we get the appropriate price. So I would say that nothing has changed in terms of the philosophy that you've seen here from CSX for more than a decade.

但在其他市場，我們會與客戶以夥伴關係合作，嘗試找出最佳的服務產品。同時，也確保我們取得適當的價格。所以我會說，CSX在十多年來所展現的定價理念並沒有改變。

Great answer and thank you. And my quick follow-up would be the intermodal growth, obviously, you spoke at length about the loss in international, but the domestic up 14% was a fantastic number. You have a tale of two railroads. When you look at average volumes in fourth quarter, you were up mid single digits, your competitors were down. So obviously, domestic, you alluded to a contract moving over on its own, not you incenting it.

回答得很好，謝謝。我快速追問一下聯運（intermodal）成長：顯然你們已詳細談到國際業務的流失，但國內成長14%是非常亮眼的數字。你們呈現出兩種不同的鐵路狀況。看第四季平均運量，你們是中個位數成長，而同業是下滑。所以顯然在國內方面，你提到有一份合約是自行轉移過來的，不是你們用誘因去推動。

Just wondering if you could talk about that 14%, really high level directionally. How much of that growth would be that singular contract, which you've seen shift and how much of it would be what I'd refer to as more organic highway to rail conversion? Thank you.

想請你們從高層次、方向性地談談這個14%。其中有多少成長來自那一份單一合約的轉移？又有多少是我所稱的、更有機的「公路轉鐵路」轉換？謝謝。

It is a significant portion of that growth. I think that prior to last year, we've been growing our domestic intermodal business about 7%, and we've guided long term to about 5% to 10%. And with the softer market, we're probably at the low end of that range, if you exclude this kind of shift.

那份合約占了相當大的一部分。我想在去年之前，我們的國內聯運業務大約以7%的速度成長，而我們長期指引約為5%到10%。在市場較疲弱的情況下，如果排除這種轉移，我們可能會落在該區間的低端。

But nothing has changed in terms of our opportunity to convert what we've said is over 9 million units in our network territory that we think over time can be converted to rail-based solution in partnership with our truckers. And so we think it's softer right now, but as I said to previous -- answer to previous question, the macro environment still favors a rail-based solution longer term.

但就我們的機會而言並沒有改變：我們曾說在我們的路網覆蓋區域內，有超過900萬個單位，我們認為隨時間推進，能與卡車業者合作，逐步轉換為以鐵路為基礎的解決方案。因此我們認為目前雖然較疲弱，但正如我在前一題的回答所說，從長期來看，總體環境仍然更有利於以鐵路為基礎的解決方案。

All right. Thanks for the time, everybody.

好的。謝謝各位撥冗。

Thank you. Our next question will be coming from Cherilyn Radbourne from TD Securities. Your line is open.

謝謝。下一個問題來自TD Securities的Cherilyn Radbourne。請開線。

Good morning, Cherilyn.

早安，Cherilyn。

Thanks very much and good morning. My first question is on your variable train scheduling initiative and just how much of an impact that had on the increase in train length that you saw and what inning you think we're in terms of realizing the whole benefit.

非常感謝，早安。我的第一個問題是關於你們的可變列車排程（variable train scheduling）計畫：它對你們所看到的列車長度增加有多大影響？以及就實現全部效益而言，你認為我們目前進行到第幾局（inning）？

Good morning, Cherilyn. I think as far as the variable trains, which that applies to our merchandise network, I think we've seen the biggest increase in train size in the merchandise side. So in the fourth quarter, we saw increases in train size of 23%.

早安，Cherilyn。就可變列車而言，它適用於我們的零擔（merchandise）路網；我想我們在零擔端看到的列車規模增幅最大。因此在第四季，我們看到列車規模增加了23%。

So I think what the variable schedule does for us going forward is as we see softer demand, we are able to right-size that network more effectively. In terms of what the components are of variable train that are in place, we pretty much got them in place, but it does allow us to continue to shift, and expand, and contract on a more effective way than we've been able to do in the past in our merchandise network.

所以我認為，可變排程對我們未來的作用是：當需求轉弱時，我們能更有效地把該路網調整到合適的規模。至於可變列車的各項組成要素，目前基本上都已到位；但它確實讓我們能在零擔路網中，持續以比過去更有效的方式進行調整、擴張與收縮。

You're doing a lot more in the bulk.

你們在散裝（bulk）方面做得更多。

Yes, well we are also continuing train length initiatives on the bulk side as well. We've seen increases in train length across coal, grain, and others in the 5% to 10% range also over the quarter.

是的，我們也在散裝端持續推動列車長度的相關措施。本季我們也看到煤、穀物及其他品類的列車長度增加，增幅約在5%到10%的區間。

So it's not just a merchandise -- train length is not just a merchandise initiative. It also follows the rest, but merchandise has seen the biggest benefits.

所以這不只是貨運——列車加長不只是貨運方面的一項措施。它也適用於其他業務，但貨運獲得的效益最大。

Great, and then to the extent that you expect earnings to decline in 2016 and see some volume uncertainty, can you just comment on whether that will have any impact on the pace at which you expect to execute on your share buyback program?

很好，那麼在你們預期2016年獲利下滑、且運量存在一些不確定性的情況下，能否談談這是否會影響你們預期執行庫藏股回購計畫的速度？

Hey Cherilyn, it's Frank. You saw us repurchase nine million shares in the quarter for just under $260 million, which was essentially the same rate that you saw us in the third quarter. It's consistent with the $2 billion program that we announced back in April, and we currently expect to complete that program ratably over the next five quarters using balance sheet cash, free cash flow, and debt. So I think you're going to continue to see us, based on what we see now, to continue on that ratable program.

嗨，Cherilyn，我是Frank。你看到我們本季回購了900萬股，金額略低於2.6億美元，基本上與第三季的回購速度相同。這與我們在4月宣布的20億美元計畫一致，我們目前預期在未來五個季度以平均、均衡的方式完成該計畫，資金來源包括資產負債表上的現金、自由現金流以及舉債。所以我認為，基於我們目前所見，你將會繼續看到我們依照這個均衡的計畫推進。

Thank you. That's my two.

謝謝。我就兩個問題。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Thank you. Our next question will be coming from Ben Hartford from Baird. Your line is open.

謝謝。下一個問題來自Baird的Ben Hartford。你的線路已開通。

Good morning, Ben.

早安，Ben。

Good morning. Just a quick question on the export coal side. In your mind, what is the risk to further downside? You obviously talked about some downside risk to the 20 million tons number this year, but what provides any sort of comfort that you have line of sight to a floor and that we shouldn't be thinking about the early 2000s levels of a number less than half this guided 2016 number? Or even something above and beyond the 2002, 2003 levels.

早安。我想快速問一下出口煤的部分。以你們的角度看，進一步下行的風險是什麼？你們顯然提到今年2,000萬噸這個數字有一些下行風險，但有什麼能讓你們較有把握，認為已經看得到底部，不需要去想像像2000年代初期那種、低於你們2016年指引數字一半以下的水準？或者甚至比2002、2003年的水準還要更低的情況。

Is there any way to frame it? Obviously the market's uncertain, but is there any way to frame up the likelihood of a 50% or even deeper cut to the export coal number over the course of the next few years?

有沒有什麼方式可以框定這件事？市場當然不確定，但有沒有辦法描述一下，未來幾年出口煤數量出現50%甚至更深幅度下修的可能性？

Sure. I think that over the last couple years, as we provided you guidance at the beginning of the year, we've been actually very, very close to those numbers. And while these are unchartered territory in terms of the underlying commodity prices, both on the thermal side and the met side, we do work very closely with our customers, both on the producer side and also with some of the agents that sell for us and really try to go over and understand the markets themselves.

當然。我認為過去幾年，我們在年初提供指引時，實際結果都非常、非常接近那些數字。雖然就基礎商品價格而言，無論是動力煤或冶金煤，這些都屬於未曾經歷的領域，但我們確實與客戶密切合作，包括生產端客戶，以及一些替我們銷售的代理商，並且努力深入了解市場本身。

And as we think about 2016 right now, out of the 20 million, we probably have about 6 million that we have very good visibility to, probably a little bit lower than you normally would have at this time of the year. But we still think that there's an opportunity to get to that about 20 million tons for the year. And one of the drivers here is also that you do have such a large excess surplus of domestic coal where the producers are very eager to push that out into the world market, and that is helpful as well as we move through 2016.

以我們目前對2016年的看法，在2,000萬噸之中，我們大概對其中600萬噸有非常高的能見度，可能比你在一年中的這個時間點通常會看到的略低一些。但我們仍然認為，今年仍有機會達到約2,000萬噸。其中一個驅動因素是，國內煤炭有非常大量的過剩供給，生產商非常積極想把這些量推向全球市場；這在我們推進2016年的過程中也會有所幫助。

Okay. That's helpful. We'll just watch how that develops through the year. Frank, the share buyback, what is the thought process there this year, and then I want to confirm something on the CapEx side, the $307 million from the 113 locos that were purchased late last year, is that in the 2016 CapEx budget of $2.4 billion?

了解。這很有幫助。我們會觀察今年的發展情況。Frank，關於庫藏股回購，今年的思考邏輯是什麼？另外我想確認一下資本支出（CapEx）部分：去年底購買的113台機車所對應的3.07億美元，是否已包含在2016年24億美元的CapEx預算中？

The answer to your last question is yes. And on the buybacks, it's the same ratable methodology that you've heard us talk about previously, and so the $2 billion program was intended to be over a two-year period. And as we currently see things, we'll continue to do it at about $260 million a quarter.

你最後一個問題的答案是：是的。至於回購，仍是你之前聽我們談過的那種均衡、平均的方式，因此這個20億美元計畫原本就是設計在兩年期間完成。以我們目前所見，我們會繼續以每季約2.6億美元的速度進行。

Okay. Thank you.

好的。謝謝。

Thank you. The next question will be coming from David Vernon from Bernstein. Your line is open.

謝謝。下一個問題來自Bernstein的David Vernon。你的線路已開通。

Good morning, David.

早安，David。

Good morning, and thank you for taking the question. Fredrik, maybe just to put some more numbers on the issue around utility coal pricing. If you look back over the last couple years when you've seen the utility business get cut by half or so, can you talk about the trend you guys have seen in your distance neutral rate per ton?

早安，謝謝讓我提問。Fredrik，也許想在公用事業煤炭定價這個議題上補充一些數字。如果回顧過去幾年，當你們看到公用事業業務量大約被砍半時，能否談談你們每噸「距離中性」運價（distance neutral rate per ton）的趨勢？

Has that been moving up or have you seen some weaker years when because of the lower gas price? Like I'm just trying to put some numbers around the utility coal pricing.

它是往上走，還是因為天然氣價格較低而出現較疲弱的年份？我只是想用一些數字來理解公用事業煤炭的定價。

So clearly, in mid part of last decade, there was a significant opportunity to touch legacy pricing, and that probably lasted from 2005 to 2011 or so. Then since then, it's been much more normalized pricing.

很明顯，在上個十年的中期，調整既有（legacy）定價有很大的機會，而那大概從2005年持續到2011年前後。之後，定價就更趨於常態化。

As natural gas prices now have come down as much as they have, there really isn't much that we can do to incentiveize incremental burn. We look at each and every contract when they come up to see if there are opportunities to optimize the bottom line by being more flexible in pricing. If there is, we'll do that. But generally, at these natural gas prices, there isn't really anything we can do to improve the burn rate, with maybe one or two exceptions.

在天然氣價格如今下跌到這種程度時，我們其實沒有太多能做的事情來激勵額外的燃煤使用量（burn）。每一份合約到期時我們都會逐一檢視，看看是否有機會透過更有彈性的定價來優化獲利。如果有，我們就會做。但一般而言，在目前這樣的天然氣價格下，我們幾乎沒有什麼能做的來提升燃煤率，可能只有一兩個例外。

Okay. And then maybe, Frank, just as a follow-up on the productivity, can you talk a little bit about how dependent the level of productivity you're getting right now is on the CapEx budget? It sounds like some of the new locomotives that you're getting are necessary to run the longer trains. I'm just wondering about how much more upgrading of the fleet may be required over the next few years, and when that CapEx number can get down to 16%, 17%.

了解。接著可能請Frank再追問一下生產力：你能否談談你們目前取得的生產力水準，在多大程度上取決於CapEx預算？聽起來你們取得的一些新機車是跑更長列車所必需的。我想了解未來幾年車隊還需要多少升級，以及CapEx占比何時能降到16%、17%。

Right, David. So on the locomotive piece, obviously, we'll complete the deliveries in 2016, as Cindy has or will mention, we've certainly looked at right-sizing the fleet and taking out the bad actors and the high fuel burn locomotives. So it certainly helps, but you're talking about 300 engines on a 4,000 engine base.

好的，David。就機車部分而言，我們會在2016年完成交付；如Cindy已經或將會提到的，我們確實檢視過如何讓車隊規模更符合需求，並淘汰表現不佳者以及耗油較高的機車。這確實有幫助，但你談的是在4,000台機車基礎上其中300台。

On your tie between productivity and CapEx, there's always some in the CapEx budget that relates to productivity, and it's really I'd say a dog's breakfast, right. You've got structural changes in the coal network. You've got G&A restructuring and downsizing. You've got terminal efficiencies. You've got train length, which gives you lower crew starts. As we've mentioned earlier in the call, you've got technology initiatives, which are funded through the CapEx process that relate into some of the productivity initiatives.

至於你問生產力與CapEx之間的連結，CapEx預算中總會有一部分與生產力相關，但我會說它其實是「一鍋大雜燴」，對吧。你有煤炭網路的結構性變化。你有總務與管理（G&A）的重整與縮編。你有碼頭效率提升。你有列車加長，這會降低開車班次（crew starts）。如同我們先前在電話會議中提到的，你也有技術專案，這些是透過CapEx流程提供資金，並與部分生產力專案相連結。

So I think you're looking at a lot of things that we did in 2015 that will carry over into 2016, and then there is a little bit of a tie between CapEx and productivity. But it's small in the grand scheme of things, David.

所以我認為，你看到的是我們在2015年做的許多事情會延續到2016年，而CapEx與生產力之間確實有一點連動。但就整體而言，這個連動幅度不大，David。

In terms of long-term and getting back down to 16% to 17%, if you were to just normalize this year's capital budget for the $300 million in locomotive payments, you'd be at that range now. So it's certainly something that on a long-term basis we're going to continue to look at. Fuel surcharges that's come down, has obviously been a bit of a headwind for us in the past as we look at that 16% to 17%.

就長期而言、並回到16%到17%的水準來看，如果你只是把今年的資本預算就3億美元的機車付款做正常化調整，你現在就會落在那個區間。所以這當然是我們在長期基礎上會持續關注的事情。燃油附加費已經下滑，顯然在我們回頭看16%到17%時，過去對我們而言一直是些許逆風。

As a short follow-up to that, in the number of the 300 loco that you've taken against the 4,000 fleet, if you had a capital unconstrained world and you wanted to go and push train lengths in other part of the business, would there be opportunities to go ahead and continue to upgrade that fleet and operationally find opportunities to run longer trains in other parts of the network? Or are you nearing the end of the ability to get that extra productivity from train length?

就此做個簡短追問，在你提到的300台機車相對於4,000台車隊的數字上，如果資本不受限制、而你想在業務的其他部分推動列車編組長度，是否有機會進一步升級該車隊，並在營運上在網路其他區段找到開行更長列車的機會？還是說，你們已接近透過增加列車長度來取得額外生產力的能力上限？

David, this is Cindy. The train length constraints really are not locomotive based, they are siding capacity based in the southern part of our network. And in terms of capital, we are looking at those types of investments going forward to allow us to unlock the value of longer trains. So it's really not locomotive based.

David，我是Cindy。列車長度的限制其實不是由機車決定，而是由我們網路南部的會車線（siding）容量所決定。就資本而言，我們正展望未來評估這類投資，以便釋放更長列車的價值。所以這真的不是機車的問題。

Excellent. Thank you a lot for the time, guys.

太好了。非常感謝各位撥冗。

Thank you. Our next question will be coming from John Larkin from Stifel. Your line is open.

謝謝。下一個問題來自Stifel的John Larkin。您的線路已開通。

Good morning, John.

早安，John。

Thank you, Mike. Thank you for taking the question. Wanted to dig a little bit more into the stated objective of producing another $200 million in productivity savings in 2016. Can we talk a little about how that might be spread over the year and how much of that is tied to the rationalization of the coal network? And whether the rationalization of the coal network also would envision potential abandonments and/or sales to short lines on some lighter density lines in the coal network?

謝謝你，Mike。謝謝讓我提問。我想再深入一點談談你們所述2016年再創造2億美元生產力節省的目標。我們能否談談這可能如何分布在全年，以及其中有多少與煤炭網路的合理化（rationalization）相關？以及煤炭網路的合理化是否也會包含在煤炭網路中某些低密度路線的潛在廢線（abandonments）和／或出售給短線鐵路（short lines）？

Good morning, John. This is Cindy. So from a productivity perspective, the $200 million is, again, as I said, initiative based. $100 million is -- pretty much those initiatives are in place. Two of those are one area that we've -- that's included is the actions that we took the fourth quarter on the reduction in volume across the Erwin gateway and the closure of the Corbin locomotive facility.

早安，John。我是Cindy。從生產力的角度來看，這2億美元如我所說，仍是以各項計畫（initiative）為基礎。其中1億美元——基本上那些計畫都已到位。我們納入的兩項行動之一，是我們在第四季針對Erwin閘道（gateway）通過量下滑所採取的措施，以及關閉Corbin機車設施。

So to the extent those are obviously in the coal field, that is an impact to productivity in 2016 around both facilities, reduction in facilities and headcount reductions. That's basically the way I see 2016 looking with productivity.

因此，就這些顯然位於煤礦區而言，對2016年的生產力會有影響，涵蓋兩處設施、設施縮減以及人力編制縮減。這基本上就是我對2016年生產力表現的看法。

As far as continued rationalization in the coal fields, as I've said, we're going to look at that not just in the coal fields but broadly, whether it's facility related and/or line segment. The line segments take a little bit longer to work through. They involve customers. They involve other constituencies. So as we make those determinations and make those decisions, we'll be very public with that information, but that's more longer term.

至於在煤礦區持續進行合理化，如我所說，我們不只會在煤礦區評估，也會更廣泛地檢視，不論是設施相關和／或路段（line segment）。路段的處理需要更長時間。它們牽涉到客戶。也牽涉到其他利害關係人。因此，當我們做出判斷並作出決策時，我們會非常公開地揭露相關資訊，但那會是較長期的事情。

So the $200 million will be folded in pretty much evenly across all four quarters, is that a way to think about it?

所以這2億美元會在四個季度大致平均地反映出來，可以這樣理解嗎？

Yes, I would say it's ratable, John, yes. I would say that's probably the easiest way to think about it.

是的，我會說它是可按期平均攤提（ratable）的，John，是的。我想這大概是最容易的理解方式。

Thanks very much.

非常感謝。

The next question will be coming from Bascome Majors from Susquehanna. Your line is open.

下一個問題來自Susquehanna的Bascome Majors。您的線路已開通。

Good morning and thank you for the time here. I wanted to take a directional look at the margin profile of the coal business. It looks like on your guidance tonnage is going to be -- if you're at your guidance for the year, tonnage will be down 45% or so for the entire business since 2011.

早安，謝謝撥冗。我想從方向性的角度看看煤炭業務的利潤率輪廓。看起來依照你們的指引噸數——如果你們達成全年指引，噸數相較2011年整體業務將下滑約45%。

Can you just talk a little bit about the balance within the segment of the margin profile between the export business today after the price cuts you've taken over the several years? And the domestic business, where you've transitioned to the fixed variable contract structure?

你能否談談在該事業部內，利潤率輪廓在出口業務（在你們過去幾年已下調價格之後）與國內業務（你們已轉向固定／變動合約結構）之間的平衡？

And also more broadly, where is coal comping versus the rest of the book today? Is it still your premium business up there with chemicals or has the profile fallen down the ladder a bit as the revenues have fallen? Thank you.

另外更廣泛地說，煤炭相較於目前其他業務組合的表現如何？它仍然是你們的高溢價業務、與化學品並列嗎？還是隨著營收下滑，該輪廓已在排序中往下掉了一些？謝謝。

Sure. So this is Fredrik. Back in 2012 or so, we used to say that our export and utility business was about the same level of contribution and on a margin basis. But since then, as we have adjusted the export rates significantly down, our utility book of business has a higher margin than the export business.

當然。我是Fredrik。大約在2012年左右，我們過去常說出口與公用事業（utility）業務在貢獻度與利潤率基礎上大致相當。但自那之後，隨著我們大幅下調出口運價，我們的公用事業業務組合的利潤率已高於出口業務。

If you look at the overall portfolio of coal versus the rest of the business, I would say that it's still clearly more profitable because of the fact that it's such an efficient way for us to move the cargo, heavy tonnage, just unit train back at forth it's very, very efficient for us to operate that way. It's still at the high end of our business.

如果你看煤炭相對於其他業務的整體組合，我會說它仍然明顯更有利可圖，因為對我們而言這是一種非常有效率的運輸方式：重載噸位、整列（unit train）往返運行，對我們的營運而言非常、非常有效率。它仍然位於我們業務的高端。

Thank you for that. As my follow-up here and maybe for Michael or Clarence if he's in the room, I understand you guys are railroaders, you're not economists here. But just looking at the volume declines you're seeing today, both the depth of them and the breadth, have you ever seen an environment like this in your business or careers outside of a recession?

謝謝你的說明。我這邊的追問，或許給Michael或如果Clarence也在現場的話：我理解你們是鐵路人，不是經濟學家。但就你們目前看到的運量下滑而言，不論是下滑的深度或廣度，在你們的業務或職涯中，除了經濟衰退之外，你們是否曾見過像這樣的環境？

This is Michael. I'll answer that, although Clarence is here. If you take out the recession, no, we've not seen these kind of pressures in so many different markets, because you have multiple aspects working against you, the low gas prices, the low commodity prices, the strength of the dollar, all three of those together are really pushing. And in some ways, I think you can almost think of it as a freight recession, except for say markets like automotive and housing related, you're seeing pressure on most of the markets. So clearly outside of a recession, this is one where we're seeing lots of pressure in lots of different markets.

我是Michael。我來回答，雖然Clarence也在。如果把經濟衰退排除在外，沒有，我們沒有看過在這麼多不同市場同時出現這種壓力，因為有多個因素同時對你不利：低天然氣價格、低大宗商品價格、美元走強，這三者加在一起確實形成很大的推力。在某些方面，我覺得你幾乎可以把它視為一場貨運衰退（freight recession），除了像汽車與房屋相關等市場之外，你在大多數市場都看到壓力。所以很明顯地，除經濟衰退之外，這是我們在許多不同市場看到大量壓力的一次。

All right. Thank you for the time this morning.

了解。謝謝今天早上的時間。

Thank you. Our next question will be coming from Jeff Kauffman from Buckingham Research. Your line is open.

謝謝。下一個問題來自Buckingham Research的Jeff Kauffman。您的線路已開通。

Good morning, Jeff. Jeff?

早安，Jeff。Jeff？

I'm here. I'm here. I'm here. Good morning, I had you on mute. First of all, congratulations, just a very difficult quarter. I thought you guys did a great job on the cost side.

我在。我在。我在。早安，我剛剛把你設成靜音了。首先恭喜，這是一個非常艱難的季度。我認為你們在成本端做得非常好。

I wanted to zero in on the change in coal guidance for next year. If I look at what's changed, I think you were talking around a 21 million-ton domestic run rate going down to 19 million, so that's about an 8 million-ton change. But it really looks like almost half of that drop was on the coking coal and domestic met side.

我想聚焦在你們對明年煤炭指引的變動。如果我看有哪些改變，我想你們原本談的是國內約2,100萬噸的運行率（run rate）降到1,900萬噸，所以大約是800萬噸的變動。但看起來幾乎有一半的下滑其實是在焦煤（coking coal）以及國內冶金煤（domestic met）這一端。

So two questions. Number one, when I look at domestic, how much of that change is your view on utility versus your view on other domestic coal? And when I look at the exports, you did about 31 million this year; the guidance is for 20 million. Can I look at end markets, and can we think about it that way in terms of where has the incremental demand ebbed for your export coal geographically?

所以有兩個問題。第一，當我看國內市場時，這個變動有多少是你們對公用事業用煤的看法改變，多少是你們對其他國內煤種的看法改變？第二，當我看出口時，你們今年大約做了3,100萬噸；指引是2,000萬噸。我能否從終端市場來看，並以地理區域的角度來思考：你們出口煤的增量需求是在哪些地區出現回落的？

Sure. So yes, you're right, if you go back to the third-quarter guidance that we did at the call, we essentially said 21 million tons per quarter of domestic, which was 15 of domestic -- of utility and 6 of steel and industrial. And what we said then about our export was about 6 million tons a quarter for 24 in total.

當然。是的，你說得對，如果回到我們在電話會議上給的第三季指引，我們基本上說國內每季2,100萬噸，其中1,500萬噸是國內——公用事業用煤，600萬噸是鋼鐵與工業用。而我們當時對出口的說法是每季約600萬噸，全年合計2,400萬噸。

We've essentially seen a deterioration in all of those three markets by about 1 million tons a quarter, and that's really a reflection of the fact that natural gas prices and the very mild fourth quarter on the utility side has dampened our expectations.

我們基本上看到這三個市場每季都惡化了約100萬噸，這主要反映天然氣價格以及第四季非常溫和的天氣，在公用事業端抑制了我們的預期。

On the steel and industrial side, it's the reflection of the fact that when we look at the steel industry right now, you have a utilization of about 60% versus 75% a year ago, and we saw it deteriorate throughout the fourth quarter. And on the export market, is also just a reflection of the fact that the underlying commodity indexes are telling us that the market has gotten softer as global oversupply continues.

在鋼鐵與工業端，這反映的是：我們看目前鋼鐵產業的產能利用率約60%，而一年前約75%，且我們看到它在第四季持續走弱。而出口市場方面，也只是反映基礎商品指數告訴我們，隨著全球供給過剩持續，市場已經轉為更疲軟。

So in terms of where the export market is going, we did about 60/40 split here between met and thermal. It will probably be a little bit higher next year would be my guess at this point in terms of probably one-third, two-third, two-thirds in favor of met.

至於出口市場的走向，我們這裡大約是冶金煤與動力煤60/40的分配。以目前來看，我猜明年冶金煤占比可能會稍微更高，可能大概是三分之一、三分之二，其中約三分之二偏向冶金煤。

And traditionally, over half of our business goes to Europe, and I would say that split is probably going to continue in terms of the end market as well. And so I think it's just proportional between the markets, and I think you're going to see relatively proportional cut in terms of the end markets as well.

傳統上，我們超過一半的業務是銷往歐洲，我會說這個分配在終端市場上大概也會延續。所以我認為各市場之間大致是按比例變動，而你也會看到在終端市場方面相對按比例的削減。

Okay. That's my one. Thank you.

好的。這是我的第一個問題。謝謝。

Thank you, Jeff.

謝謝你，Jeff。

Thank you. The next question is coming from Scott Group from Wolfe Research. Your line is open.

謝謝。下一個問題來自Wolfe Research的Scott Group。你的線路已開通。

Good morning, Scott.

早安，Scott。

Hey, thank you. Good morning, guys. So Fredrik, just wanted to ask about the coal yields. I thought that the fixed variable was supposed to help in environments like this when volumes are down so much and help the yields out. Why aren't we seeing that?

嘿，謝謝。各位早安。Fredrik，我想問一下煤炭收益率（yields）。我原本以為固定/變動（fixed variable）應該能在像這種運量大幅下滑的環境中提供幫助、把收益率撐住。為什麼我們沒有看到這個效果？

Yes, and in the third quarter they were very helpful actually. They were still helpful here in the fourth quarter but not as much, because some of this also depends on who you're actually shipping to.

是的，第三季其實非常有幫助。第四季也仍然有幫助，但沒有那麼多，因為其中一部分也取決於你實際上是運送給誰。

And the big driver, though, in the coal yields was really the fact that we haven't made these accommodations on the export side and further adjusted our rates downward to reflect the reality of the underlying market and at the same time trying to optimize our bottom line.

不過，煤炭收益率的主要驅動因素，確實是我們在出口端尚未做出這些讓步，並進一步把我們的費率往下調，以反映基礎市場的現實，同時也在嘗試最佳化我們的最終獲利。

Okay. And then Michael, I just want to ask, so a lot's changed in CSX, certainly a lot's changed in the market from a year, year and-a-half ago. Does your view or appetite on M&A change at all, or has it changed at all in that year, year and-a-half?

好的。接著Michael，我也想問一下，CSX這一年到一年半之間變化很大，市場當然也變了很多。你們對併購（M&A）的看法或意願有任何改變嗎？或在這一年到一年半之間有改變嗎？

Not really, Scott. If you think about it, I think our position is the same as it was a year, year and-a-half ago. We think there's tremendous opportunity for shareholder value creation with our existing portfolio.

沒有太大改變，Scott。如果你仔細想想，我認為我們的立場和一年前到一年半前是一樣的。我們認為，透過我們現有的資產組合，有非常巨大的機會為股東創造價值。

And if you think about any mergers, there's going to be substantial regulatory cost, some of the synergies will be very limited because they're end-to-end mergers. So if you're going to offset those regulatory costs, you've got to have compelling interfaces and synergies, and I really have a hard time envisioning where that would be in any rail merger.

而如果你談任何合併，會有相當可觀的監管成本；而且因為多半是端到端的合併，一些協同效益會非常有限。所以若要抵銷那些監管成本，你必須有很有說服力的介面整合與協同效益，但我真的很難想像在任何鐵路合併中會出現那樣的情況。

So the challenges of the market don't change your view on that?

所以市場的挑戰不會改變你對這件事的看法？

No, sir, I think we've done well in prior down periods. We think we will in this one as well, and we think the long-term future with our existing customer base, two-thirds of the population we serve, pressures on the trucking, the service improvements we continue to make in the pricing allows us to create lots of value for the shareholders over the intermediate and long term.

不會，先生。我認為我們在過去的景氣下行期間表現得很好。我們認為這一次也會如此；而且我們相信，從長期來看，憑藉我們現有的客戶基礎、我們服務的涵蓋人口達三分之二、卡車運輸面臨的壓力，以及我們在定價上持續推動的服務改善，讓我們能在中期與長期為股東創造大量價值。

Thank you a lot, guys.

非常感謝，各位。

Thank you. The next question is coming from Justin Long from Stephens. Your line is open.

謝謝。下一個問題來自Stephens的Justin Long。你的線路已開通。

Good morning, Justin.

早安，Justin。

Thank you and good morning. So you talked about cycling the benefits from liquidated damages and gains on sale this year, and just taking those items out to someone's point earlier, you get to a mid-single-digit EPS decline in 2016. Along with anticipated volume declines, mix headwinds, your commentary that it will be difficult to improve the OR, is it fair to say that EPS should be down at least double digits or low double digits this year?

謝謝，早安。你提到今年會把違約金（liquidated damages）與出售收益（gains on sale）的利益做基期比較（cycling），而且把這些項目剔除後，呼應先前某人的觀點，2016年EPS會是中個位數百分比的下滑。再加上預期的運量下滑、組合（mix）逆風，以及你們提到營運比率（OR）很難改善，是否可以說今年EPS至少會下滑雙位數，或低雙位數？

All we're prepared to talk to you about today is the directional piece. What we tried to do is to give you some clarity around the moving parts that we have, obviously certainty on the cycling piece and we have, we think, good insights into the coal sector.

我們今天準備跟你談的只有方向性。我們試著做的是，讓你更清楚我們有哪些變動因素：顯然在基期比較（cycling）這一塊我們有確定性，而且我們也認為對煤炭產業有不錯的洞察。

It's really what happens in the industrial spaces, especially as we get out into the second half of the year. And again it's really, really early in the year in an uncertain environment to project a full-year EPS with specificity.

真正的關鍵在於工業相關領域會發生什麼，尤其是當我們進入下半年之後。而且再說一次，在一年之初、環境不確定的情況下，要非常具體地預測全年EPS，真的還太早。

At the same time, as you look at the things that we're doing, the pricing performance, the productivity, the right-sizing, the service improvements, all of those things are the things that are most within our control, and those are the things that you're going to see us be relentless about.

同時，當你看我們正在做的事情——定價表現、生產力提升、規模調整（right-sizing）、服務改善——這些都是我們最能掌控的事項，而你會看到我們在這些方面持續不懈。

Okay. Fair enough. And as a quick follow-up, I wanted to ask about PTC. You mentioned the $300 million of anticipated spending this year and $2.2 billion in total. But of that total amount, what's remaining? What's remaining after 2016? And after you've fully installed the technology, do you anticipate any incremental maintenance cost associated with PTC that would be ongoing?

好的。可以理解。另外快速追問一下，我想問PTC。你提到今年預計支出3億美元、總計22億美元。但在總額中，還剩多少？2016年之後還剩多少？以及在你們完全安裝這套技術之後，是否預期會有任何與PTC相關、需要持續發生的額外維護成本？

So let me give you the facts and the figures on PTC. So $1.5 billion is what we spent through the end of 2015. We've given you the $300 million guidance for 2016, so that would take you up to the $1.8 billion through the end of this year.

我先把PTC的事實與數字提供給你。截至2015年底，我們已支出15億美元。我們給了你2016年3億美元的指引，因此到今年年底累計會到18億美元。

Our project takes us to a hardware completion date of 2018 and fully operational by 2020. I think you'll see the majority of the difference between the $1.8 billion and the $2.2 billion being spent between now -- excuse me, the end of 2016 and the end of 2018.

我們的專案硬體完成日期是2018年，並在2020年全面投入營運。我想你會看到18億美元與22億美元之間的大部分差額，會在現在——抱歉，是2016年底到2018年底之間支出。

In terms of the tail on OpEx and some refreshed CapEx, we're still working through that. Obviously, there's a piece that's embedded within depreciation, as well as in departmental operating expenses, and that's still being worked on right now as we understand the support agreements that will go along with the hardware and the software, as well as the useful life on those pieces of equipment.

就營運費用（OpEx）的後續影響以及一些更新後的資本支出（CapEx）而言，我們仍在釐清中。顯然，其中有一部分會反映在折舊之中，也有一部分會反映在各部門的營運費用裡；目前我們仍在處理，因為我們正在了解將隨硬體與軟體而來的支援協議，以及這些設備的使用年限。

Okay. Great. That's helpful. Thank you for the time today.

好的。很好。這很有幫助。謝謝你今天撥冗。

Thank you. Our next question will be coming from Cleo Zagrean from Macquarie. Your line is open.

謝謝。我們的下一個問題來自麥格理（Macquarie）的 Cleo Zagrean。您的線路已開通。

Good morning, Cleo.

早安，Cleo。

Good morning and thank you for your time. So to follow up on the recent conversation, let's imagine ourselves this time next year after the lower earnings base set by 2016. I'm not asking for guidance, but conceptually, how do you see the you new growth trend? Can we see double-digit sustainable EPS growth? Or should we think of maturing into a pattern of lower growth, maybe more distributions for shareholders?

早安，也謝謝您撥冗。為了延續剛才的討論，讓我們想像一下在明年此時、在 2016 年較低的獲利基期確立之後的情境。我不是在要求提供指引，但從概念上來看，您如何看待新的成長趨勢？我們是否能看到可持續的雙位數 EPS 成長？或者我們應該把它視為逐步成熟為較低成長的型態，可能更多地向股東進行分配？

Because we've been talking about this structural changes not in a so-called recession such as low profitability from coal, consumer spending shifting more towards services, probably sustainable strong dollar, sluggish industrial economy. So what is the new normal and how can you grow in that? Thank you.

因為我們一直在談這些結構性變化，而不是所謂的景氣衰退，例如煤炭低獲利、消費支出更多轉向服務、可能持續偏強的美元、疲弱的工業經濟。那麼新的常態是什麼？你們要如何在其中成長？謝謝。

Thank you, Cleo. From just an EPS directional thinking beyond 2016, we see 2016 as, again, a unique year. And clearly, we should be able to provide strong EPS growth off of a 2016 base and allow Fredrik to comment on some of the commercial items of your question in terms of where some of the various lines of business might be going.

謝謝你，Cleo。就 2016 年之後的 EPS 方向性思考而言，我們仍然認為 2016 年是一個、再次強調，特殊的一年。而且很明顯地，我們應該能夠在 2016 年的基期之上提供強勁的 EPS 成長；同時也讓 Fredrik 就你問題中一些商業面向的事項做評論，談談各條業務線可能的走向。

So as we go through this year and cycle some of these headwinds that we're going to be facing, clearly for the first half of this year, and we look at where the macroeconomic indicators are and projection for the US dollar, I think we'll start seeing things stabilize, normalize, and we can start seeing year-over-year growth as we move through hopefully late in 2016 and clearly move into 2017. Based on what we're seeing right now.

因此，當我們走過今年、消化我們將面臨的一些逆風——很明顯是在今年上半年——並觀察總體經濟指標以及對美元的預測時，我認為我們會開始看到情勢穩定、回歸常態；隨著我們在 2016 年後期推進，並且明顯進入 2017 年，我們可以開始看到年對年成長。這是基於我們目前所看到的情況。

As Frank I think has said many times throughout the call today, Michael as well, the key thing for us right now is to focus on the things that we control the most, and then the macro headwinds are going to be whatever they are. And the key thing for us is to adjust our infrastructure to reflect the reality of what they provide us.

正如 Frank 我想今天在電話會議中多次提到的，Michael 也是如此，對我們而言目前的關鍵是專注在我們最能掌控的事情上，而總體逆風會是什麼就會是什麼。我們的關鍵在於調整我們的基礎設施，以反映它們所帶給我們的現實狀況。

Thank you, and as a follow-up, can you talk to us about the rate at which you see investing in growth opportunities? And maybe what it would take for you to consider a higher sustainable dividend yield to appeal to, more broadly, to dividend-focused investors? Thank you.

謝謝，作為追問，您能談談你們投資於成長機會的速度（投入節奏）嗎？以及可能需要什麼條件，才會讓你們考慮提高可持續的股利殖利率，以更廣泛地吸引以股利為主的投資人？謝謝。

On the capital side, clearly there's a portion of our capital budget every year that is geared toward growth investments. The majority of that over recent years has been focused on our growth engine, and that's on the intermodal, especially on the domestic intermodal side. So you'll continue to see us focus in that area.

在資本面上，很明顯我們每年的資本預算中有一部分是用於成長投資。近年來其中大多數都聚焦在我們的成長引擎，也就是聯運（intermodal），特別是國內聯運這一塊。因此你們會持續看到我們專注在該領域。

In terms of dividends, I'd say currently where we are, we have a very healthy yield. We have guidance out there in terms of what we're willing to pay out on a trailing 12-months basis, and that's in the 30% to 40% of trailing 12-months earnings. And so we look at that every year, generally speaking, after the first quarter, and we'll continue to do that and look at where we are against the broader environment.

就股利而言，我會說以我們目前的狀況來看，我們有非常健康的殖利率。我們也已對外提供指引，說明我們願意在過去 12 個月（trailing 12-months）基礎上支付的比例，約為過去 12 個月盈餘的 30% 到 40%。因此我們每年都會檢視，通常是在第一季之後，並會持續這麼做，同時觀察我們相對於整體環境所處的位置。

Thank you. Appreciate very much.

謝謝。非常感謝。

Thank you the last question will be coming from Keith Schoonmaker from Morningstar. Your line is open, sir.

謝謝。最後一個問題將來自晨星（Morningstar）的 Keith Schoonmaker。先生，您的線路已開通。

Good morning.

早安。

Good morning. Your expectations for automotive were a scarce bright spot, as were actual auto shipments last year. Could you please add some color to this growth expectation, maybe particular locations where you're seeing some strengths, as well as perhaps comment on general shifts of production to Mexico and how that affects your network. Thank you.

早安。你們對汽車業務的預期是一個難得的亮點，而去年實際的汽車運量也表現不錯。能否請你們就這個成長預期補充一些細節，例如你們在哪些特定地點看到一些優勢；另外也請評論一下生產轉移至墨西哥的整體趨勢，以及這如何影響你們的網路。謝謝。

Sure. So if we look at the North American light vehicle production, I think we're ending up about 17.5 here in 2015, and the projection is for 18.2 next year, so that provides us good growth opportunities. US sales also based on the projections that we're seeing indicate good growth.

當然。如果我們看北美輕型車產量，我想 2015 年大約落在 1,750 萬輛左右，而明年的預測是 1,820 萬輛，因此這為我們提供了良好的成長機會。美國銷售方面，根據我們看到的預測也顯示有不錯的成長。

The Mexico shift is clear, so the North American light vehicle production numbers are probably skewed a little bit more towards Mexico, which we don't capture as much of but we still capture some of that. And sometimes that is actually a length of haul advantage for us. So that is helpful.

轉向墨西哥的趨勢很明顯，因此北美輕型車產量數據可能會稍微更偏向墨西哥；我們在那邊掌握的量沒有那麼多，但仍然能掌握一部分。而且有時候，這其實對我們而言在運距（haul length）上是個優勢。所以這是有幫助的。

So overall, if you go back in history over the last 30, 40 years, I'm sure that you'll find that our correlations to North America light vehicle production is probably in the very, very high 95%, 98%. So we follow what the producers tell us and then we adjust our fleet and service accordingly, and right now, it looks like we're going to have another year of growth. But not anywhere close to where it's been since 2009, but still nice growth. And especially in this sort of environment, we need these sorts of growth opportunities.

總體而言，如果你回顧過去 30、40 年的歷史，我相信你會發現，我們與北美輕型車產量的相關性可能非常、非常高，達到 95%、98%。因此我們會依據製造商告訴我們的情況來行動，並相應調整我們的車隊與服務；而目前看起來，我們將再迎來一個成長年度。但不會接近自 2009 年以來的那種水準，不過仍是相當不錯的成長。尤其在這樣的環境下，我們需要這類成長機會。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Thank you everyone for joining us and we will talk to you again next quarter. Thank you.

謝謝各位的參與，我們下個季度再與各位通話。謝謝。

Thank you. This concludes today's call. Thank you for your participation in today's call. You may disconnect.

謝謝。今天的電話會議到此結束。感謝各位參與今天的電話會議。您可以掛線。