Carpenter Technology Corp (CRS) 2024 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Good day, and welcome to the Carpenter Technology fiscal fourth quarter and full year 2024 earnings call. (Operator Instructions) Please note this event is being recorded.

美好的一天，歡迎參加 Carpenter Technology 財報第四季和 2024 年全年財報電話會議。（操作員說明）請注意此事件正在被記錄。

I would now like to turn the conference over to John Huyette, Vice President of Investor Relations. Please go ahead.

現在我想將會議交給投資者關係副總裁 John Huyette。請繼續。

Thank you, operator. Good morning, everyone, and welcome to the Carpenter Technology earnings conference call for the fiscal 2024 fourth quarter ended June 30, 2024. This call is also being broadcast over the Internet along with presentation slides. For those of you listening by phone, you may experience a time delay and slide movement. Speakers on the call today are Tony Thene, President and Chief Executive Officer; and Tim Lain, Senior Vice President and Chief Financial Officer.

謝謝你，接線生。大家早安，歡迎參加 Carpenter Technology 截至 2024 年 6 月 30 日的 2024 財年第四季財報電話會議。這次電話會議也與簡報幻燈片一起透過網路進行廣播。對於那些透過電話收聽的人，您可能會遇到時間延遲和幻燈片移動的情況。今天電話會議的發言人是總裁兼執行長 Tony Thene；提姆‧萊恩 (Tim Lain)，資深副總裁兼財務長。

Statements made by management during this earnings presentation that are forward-looking statements are based on current expectations. Risk factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from these forward-looking statements can be found in Carpenter Technology's most recent SEC filings, including the company's report on Form 10-K for the year ended June 30, 2023, Forms 10-Q for the quarters ended September 30, 2023, December 31st, 2023, and March 31st, 2024, and the exhibits attached to those filings. Please note that in the following discussion, unless otherwise noted, when management discuss the sales or revenue, that reference excludes surcharge. When referring to operating margins, that is based on adjusted operating income, excluding Special Items and sales excluding surcharge.

管理階層在本收益報告中發表的前瞻性聲明是基於目前的預期。可能導致實際結果與這些前瞻性陳述有重大差異的風險因素可以在Carpenter Technology 最近向SEC 提交的文件中找到，包括該公司截至2023 年6 月30 日的10-K 表格報告、截至2023 年6 月30 日的10-Q 表格報告。請注意，在下面的討論中，除非另有說明，否則當管理層討論銷售額或收入時，該參考內容不包括附加費。當提及營業利潤時，這是基於調整後的營業收入，不包括特殊項目和不包括附加費的銷售額。

I will now turn the call over to Tony.

我現在將把電話轉給托尼。

Thank you, John, and good morning to everyone on the call today.

謝謝約翰，今天參加電話會議的每個人都早安。

I will begin on slide 4 with a review of our safety performance. For fiscal year 2024, our total case incident rate was 1.8. Although a 1.8 injury rate was ranked as one of the safest metal manufacturing companies, it is not a rate we accept at Carpenter Technology.

我將從投影片 4 開始回顧我們的安全績效。2024 財年，我們的總個案發生率為 1.8。儘管 1.8 的傷害率被評為最安全的金屬製造公司之一，但這並不是我們在 Carpenter Technology 接受的比率。

Our goal is to be a zero injury workplace. As we enter fiscal year 2025, we continue to believe our zero injury goal is possible and we will continue to invest and work tirelessly to achieve that goal.

我們的目標是成為零傷害工作場所。當我們進入 2025 財年時，我們仍然相信我們的零傷害目標是可能的，我們將繼續投資和不懈地努力實現這一目標。

Now let's turn to slide 5 for an overview of our fourth quarter performance. Carpenter Technology continues to exceed growth expectations. In the fourth quarter of fiscal year 2024, we generated $125 million in adjusted operating income, the most profitable quarter on record, beating our previous guidance by approximately 12%. To put this in perspective, it is a 39% increase over our then record sequential third quarter and double our fourth quarter a year-ago. Further, we generated $142.4 million of adjusted free-cash flow during the quarter.

現在讓我們轉向投影片 5，概述我們第四季的業績。卡彭特科技的成長持續超乎預期。在 2024 財年第四季度，我們實現了 1.25 億美元的調整後營業收入，這是有記錄以來利潤最高的季度，比我們之前的指引高出約 12%。從長遠來看，這比我們當時創紀錄的第三季成長了 39%，是去年第四季的兩倍。此外，本季我們產生了 1.424 億美元的調整後自由現金流。

The strong fourth quarter performance is a result of continued improvement in productivity, product mix optimization, and pricing actions. The SAO segment exceeded expectations, delivering $140.9 million in operating income, well above the outlook we provided on last quarter's call, and 36% above the sequential third quarter performance. Notably, SAO achieved adjusted operating margin of 25.2%. This is a meaningful step-up from the 21.4% in the previous quarter and our pre-COVID best of approximately 20%.

第四季的強勁業績是生產力、產品組合優化和定價行動持續改善的結果。SAO 部門超出了預期，實現了 1.409 億美元的營業收入，遠高於我們在上季度電話會議中提供的預期，比第三季度的連續業績高出 36%。值得注意的是，SAO 的調整後營業利益率為 25.2%。與上一季的 21.4% 以及新冠疫情爆發前約 20% 的最佳水平相比，這是一個有意義的進步。

With this exceptional performance, we finished fiscal year 2024 with $354.1 million in adjusted operating income, an annual earnings record for Carpenter Technology.

憑藉這一出色的業績，我們在 2024 財年結束時實現了 3.541 億美元的調整後營業收入，這是 Carpenter Technology 的年度盈利記錄。

Let's turn to slide 6 and take a closer look at our fourth quarter sales and market dynamics. In the fourth quarter of fiscal year 2024, sales increased 15% sequentially on higher volumes, improving product mix, and higher realized pricing.

讓我們翻到投影片 6，仔細看看我們第四季的銷售和市場動態。2024 財年第四季度，由於銷量增加、產品組合改善以及實現定價提高，銷售額環比增長 15%。

Notably, the SAO segment saw a sequential increase in shipments of 13%, the result of increased productivity across facilities, particularly at key melt work centers. You may recall that we previously identified these productivity efforts as a driver of our anticipated second-half performance. We were able to accelerate these efforts as seen in our third quarter performance and then exceed them again for the fourth quarter.

值得注意的是，SAO 部門的出貨量較上季成長了 13%，這是各設施（尤其是關鍵熔煉工作中心）生產力提高的結果。您可能還記得，我們​​之前將這些生產力工作確定為我們預期下半年業績的驅動因素。從第三季的業績中可以看出，我們能夠加快這些努力，然後在第四季再次超越這些努力。

With demand for our premium material solutions well-above supply levels across our end-use markets, we continue to remain focused on allocating capacity to where customers value it most.

由於我們的優質材料解決方案的需求遠高於最終用途市場的供應水平，我們將繼續專注於將產能分配給客戶最重視的地方。

In the fourth quarter, sales to our largest end-use market, Aerospace and Defense, were up 19% sequentially and up 28% year-over-year. Let me dive a bit deeper into the aerospace market.

第四季度，我們最大的最終用途市場航空航太和國防的銷售額環比成長 19%，年增 28%。讓我更深入了解一下航空航太市場。

First, it's important to note that industry demand remains robust as measured by passenger traffic, airline miles, and airline operators' desire for new planes. The backlog for commercial airplane bills reported by Boeing and Airbus is now over 15,000 planes or roughly nine years of demand.

首先，值得注意的是，從客運量、航空里程和航空公司對新飛機的需求來衡量，產業需求仍然強勁。波音和空中巴士報告的商用飛機帳單積壓目前已超過 15,000 架飛機，相當於約九年的需求。

Again, fundamental dynamics are driving demand. More people than ever in history want to travel and airline operators want the newest generation of airplanes to replace aging fleets, to realize the fuel efficiency they provide, and to meet the additional needed capacity for more airline miles. Today, there is some noise in the supply-chain about build rate attainment and regular news about the timing of production goals.

同樣，基本面動態正在推動需求。越來越多的人想要旅行，航空公司營運商希望用最新一代的飛機來取代老化的機隊，以實現其提供的燃油效率，並滿足更多飛行里程所需的額外運力。如今，供應鏈中存在一些有關建造率達到情況的噪音，以及有關生產目標時間表的定期新聞。

Let me talk about what all that means as we think about our outlook. Carpenter Technology is a key supplier into the aerospace supply-chain with broad exposure to aerospace platforms. This includes narrow-body and wide-body, Airbus and Boeing and MRO and OEM. We like the rest of the supply chain are managing through the current build rate adjustments. Often, even before information is broadly communicated externally, our customers are talking to us about issues they are facing and changes they may need to make.

讓我談談當我們思考我們的前景時這一切意味著什麼。Carpenter Technology 是航空航天供應鏈的主要供應商，廣泛涉足航空航天平台。這包括窄體和寬體、空中巴士和波音以及 MRO 和 OEM。我們喜歡供應鏈的其餘部分正在透過當前的建置速率調整進行管理。通常，即使在訊息廣泛對外傳達之前，我們的客戶也會與我們討論他們面臨的問題以及他們可能需要做出的改變。

For example, as new bills have lagged, MRO demand remains elevated. As a result, customers may prioritize a different portfolio of products in the near-term. We also have a large backlog of orders, both in aerospace and other markets like defense, energy, and medical. Our broad supply-chain exposure and visibility into future customer needs gives us the flexibility to adjust our production schedules to meet the evolving demands of our customers.

例如，由於新帳單滯後，MRO 需求仍然很高。因此，客戶可能會在短期內優先考慮不同的產品組合。我們在航空航太以及國防、能源和醫療等其他市場也有大量積壓訂單。我們廣泛的供應鏈曝光和對未來客戶需求的洞察力使我們能夠靈活地調整生產計劃，以滿足客戶不斷變化的需求。

Further, despite ongoing increases in our production rate, we still have substantial portions of our backlog wanted earlier by customers, which gives us the opportunity to pull-in orders when needed. Changes to near-term build rates are clearly something we are aware of and will continue to react to and adjust for if and when needed.

此外，儘管我們的生產力不斷提高，但我們仍有很大一部分積壓訂單是客戶之前想要的，這使我們有機會在需要時拉取訂單。我們顯然已經意識到近期建設率的變化，並將在需要時繼續做出反應和調整。

To bring it all together, there are four important points you should take-away from my comments. One, due to our broad reach of products and capabilities, we are currently able to navigate any near-term adjustments in the aerospace supply-chain due to build rate changes.

總而言之，您應該從我的評論中汲取四個要點。第一，由於我們廣泛的產品和能力，我們目前能夠應對因建造率變化而導致的航空航天供應鏈的任何近期調整。

Two, our backlog remains at record levels. And despite ongoing efforts to limit orders to maintain lead times, we had high order intake across markets in the fourth quarter.

第二，我們的積壓仍處於創紀錄水準。儘管我們不斷努力限制訂單以維持交貨時間，但第四季度我們在各個市場的訂單量仍然很高。

Three, even with modest assumption for build rate increases over the next 12 months, we are still increasing our earnings outlook, as I will discuss shortly.

第三，即使對未來 12 個月的建造率成長進行適度假設，我們仍會提高獲利前景，正如我稍後將討論的那樣。

And four, looking beyond the next 12 months, we see significantly higher demand on the horizon. We and most others in the industry are confident that there will be ongoing build rate increases, given an extraordinary current and increasing future demand.

第四，展望未來 12 個月，我們預期需求將顯著增加。鑑於當前的巨大需求和未來不斷增長的需求，我們和業內大多數其他人都相信，構建率將會持續增長。

Moving to the defense market, our customers continue to request emergency orders to support elevated military activity levels due to ongoing world events. We will continue to prioritize these orders given the essential nature of our support.

轉向國防市場，我們的客戶繼續要求緊急訂單，以支援由於持續發生的世界事件而提高的軍事活動水準。鑑於我們支持的本質，我們將繼續優先考慮這些訂單。

In our medical end-use market, we saw another record quarter with sales up 9% sequentially and 38% year-over-year. Our customers continue to see strong market demand-based on robust procedure backlogs.

在我們的醫療最終用途市場，我們的季度銷售額再次創下紀錄，季增 9%，年增 38%。我們的客戶繼續看到基於大量程序積壓的強勁市場需求。

Like aerospace, our medical customers are focused on securing their much needed supply given the strong demand environment, and view specialty materials as a key strategic area. In addition, customer engagement on new products remains high, driven by innovation in the use of robotics, increasing adoption of less invasive surgeries, and alloy sensitivities, among others. As a result, we continue to see high growth opportunities in the medical industry.

與航空航太業一樣，我們的醫療客戶在強勁的需求環境下專注於確保其急需的供應，並將特殊材料視為關鍵策略領域。此外，在機器人使用創新、越來越多地採用微創手術以及合金敏感性等因素的推動下，客戶對新產品的參與度仍然很高。因此，我們繼續看到醫療產業的高成長機會。

Taken together, our aerospace and defense and medical end-use markets are nearly three quarters of our overall business and continue to grow in share. Across our other end-use markets, customer engagement is high and demand for our premium solutions remains positive. For example, we are seeing strong demand for power generation, which drove a 31% sequential sales increase in the energy end-use market. Bottom line is that we are operating in a strong market and we anticipate that to continue and expand in the long-term.

總的來說，我們的航空航太、國防和醫療最終用途市場占我們整體業務的近四分之三，且份額持續成長。在我們的其他最終用途市場中，客戶參與度很高，對我們優質解決方案的需求仍然積極。例如，我們看到對發電的強勁需求，這推動能源終端使用市場的銷售額較上季成長 31%。最重要的是，我們正在一個強勁的市場中運營，我們預計這種情況將長期持續並擴大。

Now, I will turn it over to Tim for the financial summary.

現在，我將把財務摘要交給提姆。

Thanks, Tony. Good morning, everyone.

謝謝，托尼。大家早安。

I'll start on slide 8, the income statement summary. As Tony already covered in his remarks, this quarter's results exceeded our expectations and broke any previous records for quarterly profits. Starting at the top, sales excluding surcharge increased 15% sequentially on 13% higher volume.

我將從第 8 張投影片開始，即損益表摘要。正如托尼在演講中已經提到的那樣，本季度的業績超出了我們的預期，並打破了先前的季度利潤記錄。從頂部開始，不計附加費的銷售額環比增長 15%，銷量增長 13%。

The growth in net sales was driven by increasing volumes primarily related to our improving productivity that we signaled two quarters ago, combined with the ongoing shift in product mix as we continue to focus our capacity on our most profitable products. The improving productivity and product mix is evident in our gross profit, which increased to $190.6 million in the current quarter, up 30% from our recent third quarter.

淨銷售額的成長是由銷售增加所推動的，這主要與我們在兩個季度前表示的生產力提高有關，再加上我們繼續將產能集中在利潤最高的產品上，因此產品結構不斷變化。我們的毛利明顯提高了生產力和產品組合，本季毛利增至 1.906 億美元，比最近第三季成長了 30%。

SG&A expenses were $65.4 million in the fourth quarter, up roughly $8 million sequentially. The increase sequentially is primarily due to higher variable compensation accruals and the timing of certain expenses. Note the SG&A line includes corporate costs, which totaled $26.9 million in the recent fourth quarter when excluding the Special Item.

第四季的 SG&A 費用為 6,540 萬美元，比上一季增加約 800 萬美元。環比增長主要是由於應計可變薪酬增加以及某些費用的時間安排。請注意，SG&A 項目包括公司成本，在最近第四季度（不包括特殊項目）總計為 2,690 萬美元。

As we look-ahead to the upcoming first quarter of fiscal year 2025, we expect corporate costs to return to a more normalized run-rate of approximately $23 million to $24 million.

展望即將到來的 2025 財年第一季度，我們預計企業成本將恢復到約 2,300 萬至 2,400 萬美元的更正常化的水平。

Operating income was $108.3 million in the current quarter, or $125.2 million of adjusted operating income, which is 39% higher than the $90 million in our recent third quarter of fiscal year 2024 and ahead of the expectations we set last quarter. We continue to build operating momentum and expand margins, delivering total company adjusted operating margin of 19.7% in the current quarter.

本季營業收入為 1.083 億美元，調整後營業收入為 1.252 億美元，比 2024 財年第三季的 9,000 萬美元高出 39%，也高於我們上季設定的預期。我們持續增強營運動力並擴大利潤率，本季公司調整後的總營運利潤率為 19.7%。

Moving on to our effective tax rate, when excluding the net benefits associated with the Special Items, the effective tax rate for the quarter was 17%, which is slightly lower than our expectations due to benefits associated with certain changes in prior year tax positions taken in the current quarter, as well as the benefits associated with stock option exercises. For fiscal year 2025, we expect the effective tax-rate to be in the range of 21% to 23%.

轉向我們的有效稅率，在排除與特殊項目相關的淨收益時，本季度的有效稅率為 17%，略低於我們的預期，因為與上一年稅收狀況的某些變化相關的收益本季度的收益，以及與股票選擇權行使相關的收益。2025 財年，我們預計有效稅率將在 21% 至 23% 範圍內。

Adjusted earnings per share was $1.82 for the quarter. The adjusted earnings per share results exclude the impact of pre-tax restructuring and asset impairment charges associated with our additive business in the PEP segment as we continue to look at opportunities to streamline operations. The Special Items also include a U.S. tax benefit associated with the additive restructuring. In summary, the adjusted earnings per share results for the quarter of $1.82 demonstrates our improving profitability, driven by solid manufacturing execution in a strong demand environment.

該季度調整後每股收益為 1.82 美元。調整後的每股盈餘結果排除了與我們 PEP 部門的添加劑業務相關的稅前重組和資產減損費用的影響，因為我們繼續尋找精簡營運的機會。特別項目還包括與附加重組相關的美國稅收優惠。總而言之，本季調整後每股收益為 1.82 美元，這表明我們的獲利能力不斷提高，這得益於強勁需求環境下穩健的製造執行力。

Now turning to slide 9 and our SAO segment results. Net sales excluding surcharge for the fourth quarter were $559.5 million, up 16% sequentially on 13% higher volume. In addition to the step up in volume, we drove favorable product mix and realized pricing actions, primarily in the aerospace and defense and medical end-use markets, as Tony reviewed earlier.

現在轉向幻燈片 9 和我們的 SAO 部分結果。第四季不計附加費的淨銷售額為 5.595 億美元，季增 16%，銷量成長 13%。正如托尼早些時候評論的那樣，除了銷售量的增加之外，我們還推動了有利的產品組合併實現了定價行動，主要是在航空航太、國防和醫療最終用途市場。

Moving to operating results. SAO reported operating income of $140.9 million in our recent fourth quarter, which outpaced our expectations and represents a significant new record in the history of SAO.

轉向經營業績。SAO 公佈的第四季度營業收入為 1.409 億美元，超出了我們的預期，創下了 SAO 歷史上的重要新紀錄。

As shown on the slide for context, SAO operating income increased by $60.9 million from the same quarter last year, a 76% improvement. And on a sequential basis, operating income increased $37.4 million, a 36% improvement. The improvements in productivity, product mix and pricing are evident in the adjusted operating margin, which has increased to 25.2% in the current-period.

如背景幻燈片所示，SAO 營業收入比去年同期增加了 6,090 萬美元，成長了 76%。與上一季相比，營業收入增加了 3,740 萬美元，增幅為 36%。生產力、產品組合和定價方面的改善在調整後的營業利潤率中體現得淋漓盡致，本期營業利潤率已增至 25.2%。

To put the current quarter's performance in historical perspective, prior to fiscal year 2024, the highest quarterly profit that the SAO segment achieved was just under $87 million in the fourth quarter of fiscal year 2019 with a corresponding adjusted operating margin of 20.4% at the time. This quarter's results are over 60% higher than the previous record with considerably higher margins.

從歷史角度來看本季的業績，在 2024 財年之前，SAO 部門在 2019 財年第四季實現的最高季度利潤略低於 8,700 萬美元，當時相應調整後的營業利潤率為 20.4% 。本季的業績比之前的記錄高出 60% 以上，利潤率也大幅提高。

Although we highlight the impressive results we have just reported, we believe they are only milestones on the path towards our future increases in profitability. With the backdrop of strong market conditions, the SAO team remains focused on executing actions to further increase and maintain consistent production levels and to continue to actively manage the product mix to maximize capacity for our most profitable products.

儘管我們強調了剛剛報告的令人印象深刻的業績，但我們相信它們只是我們未來獲利能力成長道路上的里程碑。在強勁的市場狀況的背景下，SAO 團隊仍然專注於執行行動，以進一步提高和維持穩定的生產水平，並繼續積極管理產品組合，以最大限度地提高我們最有利可圖的產品的產能。

As we have said before, in the current environment, we recognize the heightened importance of maintaining our assets. This includes actively managing preventative maintenance schedules to ensure the availability of the assets for the long term.

正如我們之前所說，在當前環境下，我們認識到維護資產的重要性。這包括積極管理預防性維護計劃，以確保資產的長期可用性。

Looking ahead to our upcoming first quarter of fiscal year 2025, we anticipate SAO will generate operating income in the range of $127 million to $133 million, which would represent a record for the segment's first quarter performance.

展望即將到來的 2025 財年第一季度，我們預計 SAO 將產生 1.27 億至 1.33 億美元的營業收入，這將創下該部門第一季業績的記錄。

Now turning to slide 10 and our PEP segment results. Net sales excluding surcharge revenue in the fourth quarter of fiscal year 2024 were $102.3 million, up 8% sequentially. In the current quarter, PEP reported operating income of $10.6 million, up from $9.2 million in the third quarter of fiscal year 2024.

現在轉向幻燈片 10 和我們的 PEP 部分結果。2024 財年第四季不計附加費收入的淨銷售額為 1.023 億美元，比上一季成長 8%。PEP 本季的營業收入為 1,060 萬美元，高於 2024 財年第三季的 920 萬美元。

Sequential sales and profitability growth was primarily driven by our Dynamet Titanium business, which like SAO is seeing strong market demand in key end-use markets and is working to further increase production rates across the operations.

銷售額和獲利能力的連續成長主要是由我們的 Dynamet Titanium 業務推動的，與 SAO 一樣，該業務也看到了關鍵最終用途市場的強勁市場需求，並正在努力進一步提高整個業務的生產力。

With that in mind, we currently anticipate that in the upcoming first quarter of fiscal year 2025, the PEP segment will deliver operating income in line with the fourth quarter of fiscal year 2024 or roughly $10.6 million.

考慮到這一點，我們目前預計，在即將到來的 2025 財年第一季度，PEP 部門將實現與 2024 財年第四季度一致的營業收入，即約 1,060 萬美元。

Now turning to slide 11 and a review of adjusted free cash flow. In the current quarter, we generated $169.5 million of cash from operating activities compared to $83.4 million in our recent third quarter. As outlined last quarter, for the first half of fiscal year 2024, we increased in-process inventory as we continue to ramp manufacturing activity to meet the strong demand environment while we focused our efforts on increasing production rates across our operations.

現在轉向投影片 11，回顧調整後的自由現金流。在本季度，我們從經營活動中產生了 1.695 億美元的現金，而最近第三季的現金為 8,340 萬美元。如上季所述，在 2024 財年上半年，我們增加了在製品庫存，因為我們繼續加大製造活動以滿足強勁的需求環境，同時我們專注於提高整個業務的生產力。

And as planned, we reduced inventory by $59 million in the fourth quarter, driven by higher activity and sales levels. The inventory reduction was also driven by increased productivity at key work centers, improving the flow of material through our facilities. The inventory management focus combined with increased profitability drove the significant improvement in cash flow from operations.

按照計劃，由於活動和銷售水準提高，我們在第四季度減少了 5,900 萬美元的庫存。庫存減少的另一個原因是關鍵工作中心生產力的提高，改善了我們設施中的物料流動。庫存管理重點與獲利能力的提高相結合，推動了營運現金流的顯著改善。

For the current quarter, we spent $27.7 million on capital expenditures, and finished fiscal year 2024 at just under $100 million in capital expenditures. With those details in mind, we reported adjusted free-cash flow of $142.4 million in the fourth quarter of fiscal year 2024.

本季度，我們的資本支出為 2,770 萬美元，2024 財年結束時的資本支出略低於 1 億美元。考慮到這些細節，我們報告 2024 財年第四季調整後的自由現金流為 1.424 億美元。

For the full fiscal year 2024, we generated $179 million of adjusted free cash flow and ended the year with a $199 million of cash on the balance sheet. Clearly, the improving profitability and disciplined working capital management are yielding results, but we are not satisfied and see further opportunities. Our solid balance sheet position, with no near-term debt maturities and comfortable leverage ratios, positions us well for the future.

在 2024 年整個財年，我們產生了 1.79 億美元的調整後自由現金流，年底資產負債表上的現金為 1.99 億美元。顯然，獲利能力的提高和嚴格的營運資本管理正在產生成果，但我們並不滿足，並看到了更多的機會。我們穩健的資產負債表狀況、沒有短期債務到期日以及舒適的槓桿率，為我們的未來奠定了良好的基礎。

Before I turn the call-back to Tony, I wanted to highlight for those on the call that we have included in the appendix of this presentation, a slide with certain selected fiscal year 2025 guidance to help with modeling.

在我回電給托尼之前，我想向那些參加電話會議的人強調一下，我們在本簡報的附錄中包含了一張幻燈片，其中包含某些選定的2025 財年指南，以幫助建模。

With that, I'll turn the call back to Tony.

說完，我會把電話轉回給東尼。

Thanks, Tim. Now let's turn to the fiscal year 2025 outlook.

謝謝，蒂姆。現在讓我們轉向 2025 財年展望。

For context, a little over a year ago, at our Investor Day in May of 2023, we laid out a path to double our fiscal year 2019 operating income by fiscal year 2027. That four-year goal represented a 40% operating income CAGR from our expected fiscal year 2023 performance. Even with such impressive growth, we acknowledged it was a conservative estimate. We further clarified that the earnings growth would be front end loaded.

就背景而言，一年多前，在 2023 年 5 月的投資者日上，我們制定了到 2027 財年將 2019 財年營業收入翻一番的路徑。此四年目標代表我們預期 2023 財年業績的營業收入複合年增長率為 40%。儘管成長如此令人印象深刻，但我們承認這是一個保守的估計。我們進一步澄清，獲利成長將是前端加載的。

Through fiscal year 2024, we have accelerated our earnings growth, driven by multiple initiatives with a focus on improved productivity, product mix optimization, and pricing actions. Recognizing our accelerating performance in our last quarter earnings presentation, less than a year-after our Investor Day, we pulled our original fiscal year 2027 goal ahead at least one year into fiscal year 2026.

到 2024 財年，在多項措施的推動下，我們加快了獲利成長，重點關注提高生產力、產品組合優化和定價行動。在投資者日之後不到一年的時間裡，我們在上一季的收益報告中認識到我們不斷加速的業績，因此我們將最初的 2027 財年目標提前了至少一年，到了 2026 財年。

And now after exceeding expectations with another record quarter, we are pulling our goal in another full year. We are projecting $460 million to $500 million of operating income for fiscal year 2025, at the high-end of the range. That's approximately a 41% increase over our record fiscal year 2024 performance.

現在，在又一個創紀錄的季度超出預期後，我們將在另一個全年實現我們的目標。我們預計 2025 財年的營業收入將達到 4.6 億至 5 億美元，處於該範圍的高端。這比我們創紀錄的 2024 財年業績成長了約 41%。

In addition, we are projecting approximately $250 million to $300 million in adjusted free cash flow during fiscal year 2025, which represents approximately 85% conversion rate and marks another step-up in our cash flow performance.

此外，我們預計 2025 財年調整後自由現金流約為 2.5 億至 3 億美元，相當於約 85% 的轉換率，標誌著我們現金流績效的另一個提升。

Now shifting to the more near-term and our first quarter fiscal year 2025 outlook. As I communicated last quarter, we anticipate starting the year strong. For the first quarter of fiscal year 2025, we are projecting between $114 million and $120 million in operating income.

現在轉向更近期的 2025 財年第一季展望。正如我上季度所傳達的那樣，我們預計今年開局強勁。對於 2025 財年第一季，我們預計營業收入將在 1.14 億美元至 1.2 億美元之間。

This accounts for the impacts of preventive maintenance, offset by higher productivity, improving mix, and realized pricing. This target is approximately 70% higher than last year's first fiscal quarter, which was then a record best first fiscal quarter, and it sets up well to achieve our accelerated full-fiscal year 2025 target.

這說明了預防性維護的影響，並被更高的生產力、改進的組合和實現的定價所抵消。這一目標比去年第一財季高出約 70%，當時是創紀錄的最佳第一財季，這為我們加速實現 2025 年全財年目標奠定了良好基礎。

For those of you who have been following our story, you've seen the accelerating performance over the last several quarters as we have consistently exceeded expectations. And now in the span of just 14 months, that impressive 40% operating income CAGR four-year goal has become a 90% CAGR two-year goal, with approximately 60% in the bank in year-one fiscal year 2024. By now, I hope you appreciate that we don't communicate targets that we don't have line of sight to and confidence in achieving.

對於那些一直關注我們故事的人來說，你們已經看到了過去幾季業績的加速成長，因為我們一直超乎預期。現在，在短短14 個月的時間裡，營業收入複合年增長率40% 的四年目標已成為90% 複合年增長率的兩年目標，其中2024 年第一財年的銀行存款約為60 %。到目前為止，我希望您能理解我們不會傳達我們沒有視線和信心實現的目標。

With that said, the Carpenter Technology team is not satisfied with just achieving targets. Our team is focused on exceeding expectations as demonstrated in our results. With respect to the fiscal year 2025 target just communicated, we believe there are opportunities to outperform our assumptions related to execution in areas like productivity, mix, and pricing.

儘管如此，Carpenter Technology 團隊並不滿足於僅僅實現目標。正如我們的結果所證明的那樣，我們的團隊致力於超越預期。關於剛傳達的 2025 財年目標，我們相信在生產力、產品組合和定價等領域，有機會超越我們與執行相關的假設。

Further, what is now our fiscal year 2025 target will not be the peak of our earnings growth. The same dynamics that are driving our current performance are expected to only get stronger into the future, as I detailed earlier on the market slide. We continue to believe this is only the beginning of our earnings growth journey.

此外，我們目前的 2025 財年目標將不會是我們獲利成長的頂峰。正如我之前在市場幻燈片中詳細介紹的那樣，推動我們當前業績的動力預計在未來只會變得更加強勁。我們仍然相信這只是我們獲利成長之旅的開始。

With that in mind, let's turn to the next slide to review our approach to capital allocation. With strong recent earnings and accelerated earnings outlook and a solid balance sheet, we are well positioned to take a balanced approach to our capital allocation.

考慮到這一點，讓我們轉向下一張投影片來回顧我們的資本配置方法。憑藉近期強勁的獲利、加速的獲利前景以及穩健的資產負債表，我們有能力採取平衡的資本配置方法。

We clearly have a strong growth outlook with the asset base we have in-place today, and it is incumbent upon us to invest to make sure our operations are running as consistently and efficiently as possible. We won't put any of our assets at unnecessary risk and we'll continue to identify debottlenecking opportunities that improve productivity.

憑藉我們今天擁有的資產基礎，我們顯然擁有強勁的成長前景，我們有責任進行投資，以確保我們的營運盡可能一致且有效率地運作。我們不會讓我們的任何資產面臨不必要的風險，我們將繼續尋找提高生產力的消除瓶頸的機會。

To that end, we continue to expect to spend about $125 million each year in capital expenditures, which is roughly in line with annual depreciation. Beyond the $125 million, we are evaluating incremental growth projects that will target high-growth end-use markets, like aerospace and defense, and medical, by either enhancing current capabilities or enabling throughput improvements. Needless to say, given our already strong growth projections, any projects we undertake must be high value with attractive returns.

為此，我們仍然預計每年將花費約 1.25 億美元的資本支出，這與年度折舊大致一致。除了 1.25 億美元之外，我們還在評估增量成長項目，這些項目將透過增強當前能力或提高吞吐量來瞄準航空航太、國防和醫療等高成長最終用途市場。不用說，鑑於我們已經強勁的成長預測，我們開展的任何專案都必須具有高價值和有吸引力的回報。

In addition, our intention is to return capital to our shareholders. We have long supported a dividend, including through the COVID years and expect to maintain it at the current level, which is approximately $40 million annually going forward. Further, we announced today that Carpenter Technologies Board of Directors has authorized a share repurchase program up to $400 million. The primary use of this program will be to offset dilution. We may also deploy it to capitalize on opportunities the market may present.

此外，我們的目的是將資本返還給股東。我們長期以來一直支持派發股息，包括在新冠疫情期間，並希望將其維持在目前的水平，即未來每年約 4000 萬美元。此外，我們今天宣布 Carpenter Technologies 董事會已批准一項高達 4 億美元的股票回購計畫。該計劃的主要用途是抵消稀釋。我們還可以部署它來利用市場可能提供的機會。

Earlier in my comments, I stated that we are projecting approximately $250 million to $300 million in adjusted free cash flow during fiscal year 2025. It is important to note that does not include any capital expenditures above the stated $125 million share repurchases or dividend payments. As we have demonstrated, we aim to be good stewards of our capital. As a result, we believe we will continue to drive strong shareholder returns over the long term.

我在早些時候的評論中表示，我們預計 2025 財年調整後自由現金流約為 2.5 億至 3 億美元。值得注意的是，這不包括超過上述 1.25 億美元股票回購或股息支付的任何資本支出。正如我們所表明的，我們的目標是成為我們資本的好管家。因此，我們相信，從長遠來看，我們將繼續推動強勁的股東回報。

Now let's turn to the next slide for my closing comments. I will say it again, we completed a historic fourth quarter of fiscal year 2024. We delivered $125.2 million of adjusted operating income, exceeding expectations and setting a new quarterly result record. We generated $142.4 million of adjusted free cash flow.

現在讓我們翻到下一張投影片來發表我的結束語。我再說一遍，我們完成了歷史性的 2024 財年第四季。我們實現了 1.252 億美元的調整後營業收入，超出預期並創下了新的季度業績記錄。我們產生了 1.424 億美元的調整後自由現金流。

We continue to build operating momentum with increased productivity, improved mix and higher realized prices. We expanded SAO adjusted operating margins to 25.2%, up from 21.4% the previous quarter. And we completed the most profitable year on record with $354.1 million in adjusted operating income.

我們繼續透過提高生產力、改善產品組合和提高實現價格來建立營運動力。我們將 SAO 調整後營業利潤率從上一季的 21.4% 提高至 25.2%。我們完成了有史以來利潤最高的一年，調整後營業收入達到 3.541 億美元。

We are operating in a strong demand environment across end-use markets with the long term outlook even stronger than today. And given our unique assets and capabilities, we are well positioned to realize the high value demand. With that in mind, we just pulled forward our earnings outlook again, pulling in our fiscal year 2027 target two years to fiscal year 2025.

我們在終端使用市場的強勁需求環境中運營，長期前景甚至比現在更強勁。鑑於我們獨特的資產和能力，我們有能力實現高價值需求。考慮到這一點，我們再次將獲利前景上調，將 2027 財年目標推遲到 2025 財年兩年。

For fiscal year 2025, we are projecting $460 million to $500 million in operating income, and $250 million to $300 million in adjusted free cash flow. And we expect to start the fiscal year strong with $114 million to $120 million in operating income in the first quarter of fiscal year 2025. In addition, we announced a share repurchase program up to $400 million, further supporting our shareholder returns.

對於 2025 財年，我們預計營業收入為 4.6 億至 5 億美元，調整後自由現金流為 2.5 億至 3 億美元。我們預計 2025 財年第一季的營業收入將達到 1.14 億至 1.2 億美元，強勁開啟本財年。此外，我們還宣布了高達 4 億美元的股票回購計劃，進一步支持我們的股東回報。

Finally, we believe we are just getting started in our earnings growth journey. We remain focused on supporting our customer needs, operational execution and living our values as we drive to exceptional near term and long term performance.

最後，我們相信我們的獲利成長之旅才剛開始。在我們努力實現卓越的近期和長期業績的同時，我們仍然專注於支持客戶需求、營運執行和實踐我們的價值觀。

Thank you for your attention. I will now turn the call back to the operator.

感謝您的關注。我現在將把電話轉回給接線生。

(Operator Instruction)

（操作員說明）

Gautam Khana, TD Cohen.

高塔姆·卡納，TD·科恩。

Host, Tony Klim and John, great results. I wanted to ask a couple of questions are first in respect with respect to your prepared remarks, are you actually seen a lot of perturbation in the order book? Are you seeing any increase in deferral requests? I'm just kind of given all the concerned about lower 77 final assembly rates and seven three seven final assembly rates. I'm just wondering how that has been conveyed to you guys and in terms of your engine lead times and in video airframe product lead times. Yes, good morning, guys. And hope you're doing?

主持人托尼·克里姆和約翰，取得了很好的成績。我想問幾個問題，首先是關於您準備好的言論，您實際上在訂單簿中看到了很多擾動嗎？您是否發現延期請求增加？我只是對較低的 77 總裝率和 7 3 7 總裝率感到擔憂。我只是想知道如何將這一點傳達給你們，以及你們的引擎交付週期和視訊機身產品交付週期。是的，早上好，夥計們。希望你在做什麼？

Yes, good morning, Gautam, hope you're doing well. As I said in the prepared remarks, overall, we had a very strong order intake in the fourth quarter. We were actually up sequentially and year-over-year. So that would be total Carpenter Technology, but I can also say that holds true for our aerospace end-use market as well. Also keep in mind that lead times have not come in. I think last quarter I said 65-plus weeks, they're there still, if not extended a little bit.

是的，早上好，高塔姆，希望你一切都好。正如我在準備好的發言中所說，總體而言，我們在第四季度的訂單量非常強勁。事實上，我們的業績環比和年比都在上升。這就是卡彭特技術的全部內容，但我也可以說這也適用於我們的航空航天最終用途市場。另請記住，交貨時間尚未到來。我認為上個季度我說過 65 週以上，即使沒有延長一點，它們仍然存在。

Now, when you ask about specific customers, if there is a customer that is tied very closely to the 77th as you referenced, they could be in a different situation and they might be asking for some adjustments. But the important thing that I said in my remarks is that at this time, I mean, we're able to navigate any of those type of adjustments because we have an order book that's three times what it was prior to COVID, and our estimation is that three quarters of that are for customers that want product early. So we have an opportunity to pull that in.

現在，當您詢問特定客戶時，如果有一個客戶與您提到的 77 關係密切，他們可能會處於不同的情況，他們可能會要求進行一些調整。但我在演講中所說的重要一點是，目前我們能夠應對任何此類調整，因為我們的訂單簿是新冠疫情之前的三倍，而且我們的估計其中四分之三是為想要儘早獲得產品的客戶提供的。所以我們有機會把它拉進來。

I can, you know, take this opportunity also to kind of give you maybe a little bit more color as far as the customers we work with and we don't have anybody coming to us and saying that they want to cancel or anybody that wants to give up production slots.

你知道，我也可以藉此機會向與我們合作的客戶提供更多的信息，我們沒有任何人來找我們說他們想要取消或任何人想要取消訂單放棄生產時段。

In fact, we have OEMs saying, hi, they're going to use this opportunity to take up production. So we have people calling us saying, if anybody wants to, again not cancel but push out because they have a very strong connection to 737, we're interested, put us in there.

事實上，我們有原始設備製造商說，嗨，他們將利用這個機會開始生產。因此，有人打電話給我們說，如果有人想要，不要取消，而是推出，因為他們與 737 有著非常密切的聯繫，我們有興趣，請讓我們加入。

So I think that's the takeaway. You've been around long enough to know, Gautam, there's going to always be some type of noise in the aerospace supply chain. There's multiple different types, thousands of different materials that go into making an airplane. But for our specific piece of that, because of our breadth and because of the visibility we have, we feel very confident we can manage any of those build rate changes here in the near-term.

所以我認為這就是要點。高塔姆，你已經混跡了足夠長的時間，知道航空航天供應鏈中總會存在某種類型的噪音。製造飛機有多種不同類型、數千種不同材料。但對於我們的具體部分，由於我們的廣度和我們擁有的可見性，我們非常有信心能夠在短期內管理任何這些構建率變化。

The good news or the powerful piece after that is that everybody inside of the industry that I talk to, including us, believe that those build rates are going to increase significantly over the coming months. So we've taken all of that into consideration, all of that into consideration and still increased our earnings outlook significantly, pulling it forward a year.

好消息或強有力的消息是，與我交談過的行業內的每個人，包括我們，都相信這些構建率將在未來幾個月內大幅增加。因此，我們已經考慮了所有這些，並且仍然大幅提高了我們的盈利前景，將其提前了一年。

So I think that puts Carpenter Technology in a unique spot that says we can move through all this so much so that we're willing to increase our earnings outlook. And I hope that helps out with the extra color.

因此，我認為這使卡彭特科技處於一個獨特的位置，表明我們可以經歷這一切，因此我們願意提高我們的獲利前景。我希望這對額外的顏色有所幫助。

Yes, that's a great answer. And as a follow-up, I'm curious if you guys are obviously driving a lot of throughput gains, maybe you could just step back and give us some broader context on where you are with some of the productivity enhancements because obviously, that's going to be key to driving the higher throughput throughout fiscal '25. Maybe you can give us some examples on the furnaces or where you've had bottlenecks that you've alleviated. Any context would be helpful.

是的，這是一個很好的答案。作為後續行動，我很好奇你們是否明顯推動了吞吐量的大幅增長，也許你們可以退後一步，為我們提供一些更廣泛的背景信息，了解你們在某些生產力增強方面的進展，因為顯然，這正在發生成為推動整個 25 財年更高吞吐量的關鍵。也許您可以給我們一些關於熔爐的例子，或者您已經緩解了哪些瓶頸。任何上下文都會有幫助。

Well, Gautam, you and I have been talking about this for several years now, right? And it's a great point. I think you always, you know, zeroing in on what the SAO margins are, it's a primary leading indicator. And you know, we're always before COVID, very excited about getting to 20%. We just hit 25%, Gautam. And I mean, that's significant and our sights are on 30%. That's doable.

好吧，高塔姆，你和我已經討論這個問題好幾年了，對吧？這是一個很好的觀點。我認為你總是關注 SAO 的利潤率，這是一個主要的領先指標。你知道，我們總是在新冠疫情爆發之前，對達到 20% 感到非常興奮。我們剛剛達到 25%，Gautam。我的意思是，這很重要，我們的目標是 30%。這是可行的。

If you take a step back to answer your question more specifically what's driving that, obviously, it has to be across the entire process because every work center is linked. But I will say the work that we've done on the front end of the process, on the melt side, that has been the biggest, you know, uplifting of our total output, right?

如果您退一步更具體地回答您的問題，那麼顯然，它必須貫穿整個流程，因為每個工作中心都是相互關聯的。但我要說的是，我們在製程前端、熔化方面所做的工作，對我們總產量的提升是最大的，對吧？

I mean, the workers that we have out on the shop floor Reading and Latrobe, what they've been able to do with the output from primary melting is, fantastic. And you know, as you talk to them, they're not done. They have an immense amount of pride into doing that safely and high-quality, and, you know, they're just big drivers behind where this productivity has been. And importantly, you know it's not the top for us. I mean, the next level is 30% and I believe that's doable.

我的意思是，我們在雷丁和拉特羅布車間工作的工人，他們能夠利用初級熔煉的產出所做的事情非常棒。你知道，當你與他們交談時，他們還沒有完成。他們對安全、高品質地完成這項工作感到非常自豪，而且，你知道，他們只是這種生產力背後的重要推動者。重要的是，你知道這對我們來說還不是頂峰。我的意思是，下一個水平是 30%，我相信這是可行的。

Thanks, Tony. I'll get back in the queue. I appreciate it. Thank you, sir.

謝謝，托尼。我會回到隊列中。我很感激。謝謝您，先生。

Josh Sullivan, Benchmark. .

喬許·沙利文，基準。。

Just looking at inventory, you know, what are the metrics you're comfortable with at these operating levels or what are the channels that we should kind of think about going forward as you maybe are a little bit more level loaded?

只要看看庫存，您就知道，您在這些營運水準上感到滿意的指標是什麼，或者我們應該考慮未來的管道是什麼，因為您的水平可能會更高一些？

Well, it's a big driver, obviously, of free cash flow. And the way we look at it now with significant increases in volume over FY '25, our goal is to keep inventory relatively flat, which means you'll have a significant improvement in days on-hand, or inventory turnover, whatever metric you use.

嗯，顯然，這是自由現金流的一大推手。從我們現在的角度來看，25 財年銷售量顯著增加，我們的目標是保持庫存相對平穩，這意味著無論您使用什麼指標，您的現有天數或庫存週轉率都會有顯著改善。

Now, you know, you've been around long enough that that's going to fluctuate from quarter-to-quarter. So it's not going to be inventory is going to stay flat every quarter, but over that the next FY '25, that's our target, that's our goal. And we're going to do what's best to make sure we get as much product as we can to our customers. But at a high level, our overall goal for FY '25 is to stay in that flat area versus FY '24.

現在，您知道，您已經存在了足夠長的時間，每個季度都會出現波動。因此，庫存不會每個季度都保持平穩，但在下一個 25 財年，這就是我們的目標，這就是我們的目標。我們將盡最大努力確保為客戶提供盡可能多的產品。但從高水準來看，我們 25 財年的總體目標是與 24 財年相比保持在平坦區域。

Got it. And then just on the comment on prioritizing defense orders, how much runway is there? Is this a short term immediate need on the defense side or is there a longer term dynamic there that will continue?

知道了。然後就關於優先考慮國防訂單的評論，有多少跑道？這是防守方的短期迫切需求，還是持續的長期動力？

I think there's both. Certainly, I think longer term with the world environment that we're in, this is going to continue to stay strong. Short term, yes, with current world event, as you see our Department of Defense re-evaluate where they're at, what they wanted from a readiness standpoint.

我認為兩者都有。當然，我認為從長遠來看，從我們所處的世界環境來看，這種情況將繼續保持強勁。是的，從短期來看，就當前的世界事件而言，正如你所看到的，我們的國防部從戰備狀態的角度重新評估他們所處的位置以及他們想要什麼。

Our discussions with our Department of Defense has always been strong. I will say that it has amplified over the last several quarters, over the last year that we're working with them very closely on not only next-generation alloys or products, but near-term what can we do to help support, you know, their current goals. And we're proud to do that, we're happy to do that and we will pull them into the schedule as much as we can with any type of questions they have.

我們與國防部的討論一直很激烈。我想說的是，在過去的幾個季度裡，在過去的一年裡，我們與他們密切合作，不僅在下一代合金或產品上，而且在短期內我們可以做些什麼來幫助支持，你知道，他們當前的目標。我們很自豪能夠做到這一點，我們很高興這樣做，我們將盡可能地將他們納入日程安排，回答他們提出的任何類型的問題。

Great. Thank you for your time. Thank you, sir.

偉大的。感謝您抽出時間。謝謝您，先生。

Scott Deuschle, Deutsche Bank

史考特‧德施勒，德意志銀行

Hey, good morning. Great results.

嘿，早安。很好的結果。

Good morning, Scott. Nice to have you on board.

早安，史考特。很高興您加入。

Thank you. Tony, should we expect EBIT to grow sequentially throughout 2025 like it typically does?

謝謝。托尼，我們是否應該預期息稅前利潤在 2025 年會像通常那樣連續增長？

It's a good question. And at a high-level, the answer is yes. But there is a dynamic that we're in right now, Scott, and that is we're effectively sold-out. So everything we produce, we can ship. So this idea of seasonality has been more offset than by this elevated demand. So the only real difference between quarters is the number of days you have to operate.

這是一個好問題。從高層來看，答案是肯定的。但斯科特，我們現在正處於一種動態，那就是我們實際上已經售罄了。所以我們生產的所有東西都可以運輸。因此，這種季節性的想法更被需求的增加所抵消。因此，季度之間唯一真正的區別是您必須運營的天數。

And that's why it's really important to understand planned maintenance and what we're doing, as we've just guided our first quarter to be slightly down from fourth quarter, why is that? It's almost 100% due to the fact that we took some primary melt preventive or planned maintenance outages in the fourth quarter and it takes about a quarter for that to flow through. That's why you see a little bit down in the first quarter. Has nothing to do with the market, no red flags. The market isn't getting weaker, it's getting stronger, but we must protect our assets and we must take that planned maintenance.

這就是為什麼了解計劃維護和我們正在做的事情非常重要，因為我們剛剛指導第一季比第四季度略有下降，這是為什麼？這幾乎 100% 是因為我們在第四季度採取了一些主要的熔化預防措施或計劃內的維護停電，並且大約需要四分之一的時間才能完成。這就是為什麼你會看到第一季略有下降。與市場無關，沒有危險訊號。市場並沒有變得更弱，而是變得更強，但我們必須保護我們的資產，我們必須進行計畫內的維護。

So could there be a quarter, Scott, in the future that EBITDA or earnings or whatever your metric is down slightly? It could, but that will be 100% related to how we take our planned maintenance. I hope that answered your question.

那麼，斯科特，未來某個季度的 EBITDA 或收益或任何你的指標是否會略有下降？可以，但這將 100% 與我們如何進行計劃維護有關。我希望這回答了你的問題。

Yes, no, that's great. And then, Tony, can you characterize the current pricing environment? Has that deteriorated at all recently or is the pricing power you've been exercising the last two years still holding in really well?

是的，不，那太好了。然後，托尼，您能描述一下當前的定價環境嗎？最近這種情況是否有所惡化，或者您過去兩年所行使的定價能力是否仍然保持得很好？

Yes. I don't want to talk too in depth about specifics on pricing, but I think as you can see from our results that continues to increase quarter-over-quarter. And I think the big driver there, Scott, is the market from what we see it, even with these small little blips here in front of us, which in the whole scheme of things aren't going to be relevant long-term, right? I mean, we've shown you that we're able to offset that. That doesn't impact us right now. Now it can't last three or four years, but nobody believes that that's going to be the case. In fact, this will just put even a steeper, you know, trend-line up over the next year, I believe.

是的。我不想太深入地討論定價細節，但我認為正如您從我們的結果中看到的那樣，定價逐季度持續增長。我認為，史考特，從我們所看到的市場來看，最大的推動因素是市場，即使我們面前有這些小現象，從整個計劃來看，這些現像不會長期相關，對吧？我的意思是，我們已經向您展示了我們能夠抵消這一影響。這對我們現在沒有影響。現在它不可能持續三、四年，但沒有人相信情況會是這樣。事實上，我相信，這只會讓明年的趨勢線變得更加陡峭。

So with that type of demand environment, you should assume that pricing would remain strong just because of supply-demand, just because of supply-demand dynamic. And if I could, Scott, I'd like to brings me to another point. I don't want to take your time, but it brings to this other point around this whole supply-and-demand and when we talked about our capital allocation and the fact that we're going to be balanced. We've signaled before that we are intent to return capital to shareholders. Obviously, we just announced the buyback program that's evidence of that.

因此，在這種類型的需求環境下，您應該假設定價將保持強勁，只是因為供需，只是因為供需動態。如果可以的話，史考特，我想談談另一點。我不想花時間，但當我們談論我們的資本配置和我們將保持平衡的事實時，它帶來了圍繞整個供需的另一點。我們之前曾表示，我們打算向股東返還資本。顯然，我們剛剛宣布的回購計畫就是證明。

And we talked about these potential incremental growth projects. I wanted to be clear, it says or there are no projects that we are currently contemplating that would come anywhere close to pushing supply above demand in the products that we supply into aerospace.

我們討論了這些潛在的增量成長項目。我想澄清的是，我們目前正在考慮的專案沒有任何專案可以接近推動我們向航空航太領域提供的產品的供應超過需求。

So those incremental growth projects that we look at is where can we find that next, you know, notch of capability, that next notch of incremental capacity that can accelerate an already a very impressive earnings over the next several years. Those are the things we're talking about.

因此，我們關注的那些增量成長項目是我們在哪裡可以找到下一個，你知道，能力的一個檔次，下一個增量能力的檔次，可以在未來幾年內加速已經非常令人印象深刻的收益。這些就是我們正在談論的事情。

When you start talking about large projects that would try to close that gap, they're just not doable. So I think that's important to say that we're looking at would not solve the equation. The gap is that significant. And we don't have anything on our plates that would do that. So thanks for the time. So let me jump in there and say that.

當你開始談論試圖縮小這一差距的大型專案時，它們就是不可行的。所以我認為重要的是我們正在研究的方法無法解出方程式。差距就是這麼大。我們的盤子裡沒有任何東西可以做到這一點。謝謝你的時間。所以讓我跳進去說一下。

Yes. Thank you. One last question for now, you know, Tony, it sounds like there's a pretty big issue with yields at the forgings and castings houses and I apologize for the ignorant question here. But when those companies experience issues with yields, does that generally drive more demand for CRS products or do those firms typically have their own revert loop that allows them to just reprocess what falls out as a result of those defects? Thanks.

是的。謝謝。現在的最後一個問題，你知道，東尼，聽起來鍛造和鑄造工廠的產量存在一個相當大的問題，我對這裡的無知問題表示歉意。但是，當這些公司遇到產量問題時，這通常會推動對 CRS 產品的更多需求，還是這些公司通常有自己的恢復循環，讓他們可以重新處理因這些缺陷而產生的問題？謝謝。

Well, I want to be careful with this, Scott, because when you say the forging houses, I don't want to assume who you're speaking with, right? So I don't want to answer something with not having enough knowledge, I mean, obviously. I'll answer it this way. We work very closely with those large forgers, if it's who I think you're talking about, obviously. And again, it's much like the build rates at the similar level.

好吧，我想小心一點，史考特，因為當你說鍛造廠時，我不想假設你在和誰說話，對嗎？所以我不想在沒有足夠知識的情況下回答一些問題，我的意思是，顯然。我就這樣回答吧。我們與那些大型造假者密切合作，如果我認為你說的是那些人的話，那顯然是這樣。再說一遍，它與相似水平的構建率非常相似。

There's always going to be some little noise here and there. The market is so strong right now and more importantly, Carpenter Technology with the ability we have to move some things around, it more than offsets that. I mean, another good example, we talked about aerospace a lot, but you've heard all in the news around you know power generation or land based turbines and the need for more power and artificial intelligence. And that's a different alloy for us, but it runs across similar assets.

到處都會有一些小噪音。現在市場如此強勁，更重要的是，Carpenter Technology 擁有我們必須改變一些東西的能力，它足以抵消這一點。我的意思是，另一個很好的例子，我們經常談論航空航天，但你已經在周圍的新聞中聽說過發電或陸基渦輪機以及對更多電力和人工智慧的需求。這對我們來說是一種不同的合金，但它具有相似的資產。

So again, that's another alloy that wants to jump into the production flow and we're able to get margins for those products even to aerospace margins. So it's just another tool that we have to offset any of that type of near-term noise. I'm confident that those people you talk to, they're very, very well-run and any short-term noise will be behind us soon, I'm sure.

再說一次，這是另一種想要進入生產流程的合金，我們能夠為這些產品獲得利潤，甚至達到航空航太的利潤。因此，這只是我們必須抵消任何此類近期噪音的另一個工具。我相信那些與你交談的人，他們運作得非常非常好，任何短期噪音都會很快消失，我確信。

Thank you , sir.

謝謝您，先生。

(Operator Instructions) Andre Madrid, BTIG

（操作員指令）安德烈·馬德里，BTIG

Hi, all, thanks for taking my question. So, I mean looking ahead, so obviously, FY '27 guide got pulled in into '25. So with that said, I mean, how should we be looking at '27 and beyond now? I mean, do we expect the same kind of pace of growth of expansion, a plateauing of sorts? I mean, how should we think about, you know, looking at the performance here on out?

大家好，感謝您提出我的問題。所以，我的意思是展望未來，很明顯，27 財年指南已被納入 25 財年。話雖如此，我的意思是，我們現在應該如何看待 27 年及以後的事情？我的意思是，我們是否期望同樣的擴張速度，某種形式的穩定？我的意思是，我們該如何看待接下來的表現？

Yes, Andre, welcome as well. I mean, it's one of those no good deal goes unpunished, right. I mean, we just pulled FY '27 last quarter up one year, now two years. So the question is, what are you going to do in FY '26, right? And as I said on my prepared remarks, we think this is just the beginning.

是的，安德烈，也歡迎。我的意思是，這是任何好事都會受到懲罰的事情之一，對吧。我的意思是，我們剛剛將 27 財年上個季度的預算延長了一年，現在是兩年。所以問題是，26 財年你打算做什麼，對吧？正如我在準備好的演講中所說，我們認為這只是一個開始。

So FY '25 is not the peak for us. We do plan on giving updated '26 and '27 guidance in the future in this fiscal year. I mean, we have a practice in the fall of every year where we update our long-term outlook. It's a very detailed market-by-market, product-by-product, customer-by-customer bottoms-up projection. We're getting ready to kick that off. I'd like to let that run its course. On our current look that we have, certainly FY '26 and '27 are another steps up from FY '25.

因此，25 財年對我們來說並不是高峰期。我們確實計劃在本財年的未來提供更新的「26」和「27」指引。我的意思是，我們每年秋天都會更新我們的長期前景。這是一個非常詳細的逐個市場、逐個產品、逐個客戶的自下而上的預測。我們正準備開始。我想讓事情順其自然。從我們目前的情況來看，26 財年和 27 財年無疑是 25 財年的另一個進步。

But I want to let that run the course. As I've said before, we don't take lightly the guidance that we give. We want to have line of sight to it. We want to have confidence that we can hit it. So we're going to let the process play out. We're going to do that detailed workup and get a refresh '26 and '27. And our plan would be to communicate that. But make no mistake that '26 and '27 would be nice steps up from FY '25.

但我想讓這一切順利進行。正如我之前所說，我們不會輕視我們所提供的指導。我們希望能夠看到它。我們希望有信心能夠實現這一目標。所以我們要讓這個過程繼續下去。我們將進行詳細的檢查，並在 26 和 27 年進行更新。我們的計劃就是傳達這一點。但毫無疑問，26 年和 27 年將是 25 財年的一個很好的進步。

Appreciate it. Thank you. That was helpful. If I can tackle on other there. I mean, looking at the outlook, I know that previously you had said $500 million CapEx through 2027. But seeing as though the guide has kind of remained intact to be about $125 million for FY '25, I mean, are you guys able to hit these increases without having to expand CapEx beyond the, kind of the going levels? I mean, or is that just, you know, going to be all done through pricing? I mean the operating income increases?

欣賞它。謝謝。這很有幫助。如果我能解決其他問題的話。我的意思是，從前景來看，我知道您之前說過到 2027 年資本支出將達到 5 億美元。但鑑於該指南在 25 財年保持在 1.25 億美元左右，我的意思是，你們是否能夠在不將資本支出擴大到超出當前水平的情況下實現這些增長？我的意思是，或者這只是透過定價來完成？我的意思是營業收入增加？

Yes, it's a good question. Thank you for that. All of our targets that we have communicated externally are based on our current capabilities and capacity. We do not assume any new capacity coming on to hit those targets. None. So that's a very, very important point. So every target that earnings target that we've given you only takes into account our current capabilities and our current capacity.

是的，這是一個好問題。謝謝你。我們對外傳達的所有目標都是基於我們目前的能力和能力。我們不假設任何新的產能會達到這些目標。沒有任何。所以這是非常非常重要的一點。因此，我們給您的每一個獲利目標都只考慮到我們目前的能力和能力。

The $125 million a year is primarily sustaining capital, right? So which is a, you know, roughly equal to our depreciation. You need to always be refreshing your assets. So those are, you know, taking care of the current assets. Those aren't adding any really new capacity. Now inside of that $125 million, I will say there are at times smaller debottlenecking projects that can improve productivity that's inside that $125 million.

每年 1.25 億美元主要用於維持資本，對嗎？所以，你知道，這大約等於我們的折舊。您需要始終刷新您的資產。所以，你知道，這些都是照顧流動資產。這些並沒有增加任何真正的新容量。現在，在這 1.25 億美元中，我想說的是，有時會有一些較小的消除瓶頸項目，可以提高這 1.25 億美元中的生產力。

I would assume over the next several years, that $125-ish million range is going to be pretty consistent. And then anything above that would be any type of growth type capacity capabilities adding CapEx. And if we did that, that would add to the earnings growth on-top of what already is a really impressive number.

我認為在接下來的幾年裡，1.25 億美元左右的範圍將相當穩定。然後，高於此的任何類型都將是增加資本支出的任何類型的成長型容量能力。如果我們這樣做，除了已經非常令人印象深刻的數字之外，這將進一步增加獲利成長。

So I appreciate the question because that's an important distinction to make that there's no CapEx we need to spend to hit our current guidance. Above the $125 million.

所以我很欣賞這個問題，因為這是一個重要的區別，我們不需要花費任何資本支出來達到我們當前的指導。超過1.25億美元。

Thank you. Thank you.

謝謝。謝謝。

Phil Gibbs, KeyBanc Capital Markets

Phil Gibbs，KeyBanc 資本市場

Hi, Tony, good morning. Congrats on the strong results.

嗨，托尼，早安。祝賀取得強勁的成果。

Yes, good morning. Good to hear from you.

是的，早安。很高興收到你的來信。

The engine revenues in your last quarter, can you give us a texture in terms of how much that grew sequentially or year-over-year?

您上個季度的引擎收入，您能給我們介紹一下環比或年成長了多少嗎？

Yes, sure. Aerospace engine sales were up 22% year-over-year and 17% sequentially. So very strong quarter for aerospace. That's the industry. Just to be specific, that's aerospace engines.

是的，當然。航空引擎銷量較去年同期成長 22%，較上季成長 17%。航空航太產業的季度表現非常強勁。這就是這個行業。具體來說，那就是航空發動機。

Okay. Thank you. And can you give us an idea of how much defense right now is in your A&D mix as a percentage? I'm just trying to read the tea leaves given you've said it's been strong and you pulled some stuff in for the government and obviously defense spending has been strong last couple of years.

好的。謝謝。您能否向我們介紹一下您的 A&D 組合中目前的防守佔比？我只是想讀一下茶葉，因為你說它很強勁，你為政府拉了一些東西，而且顯然過去幾年國防開支一直很強勁。

I think roughly, you know, defense is about 10% of maybe a little higher of the total aerospace and defense end-use market.

我粗略地認為，國防約佔整個航空航太和國防最終用途市場的 10%，也許更高。

And then lastly for me, can you give us any color on the long-term contracts within SAO? Obviously, you've achieved higher pricing on anything you've renewed. Have you put more pass through clauses in some of your new contracts or altered the duration of some of the contracts that you've re-signed?

最後，您能為我們介紹一下 SAO 內部的長期合約嗎？顯然，您對續訂的任何商品都獲得了更高的定價。您是否在一些新合約中加入了更多的傳遞條款，或者更改了一些重新簽署的合約的期限？

Yes, for sure that over the last year, maybe longer and going into the future, there are more of those types of, you know, clauses, as you said, some type of accelerator if energy moves to this point, if inflation moves. So there's much more of those in the contract to try to, you know, project if there's any large move-in some of those items that we don't get burned by that. So that is true that that's a part of all of our contracts going-forward.

是的，可以肯定的是，在過去的一年裡，也許更長的時間裡，進入未來，會有更多這樣的條款，你知道，正如你所說，如果能源達到這一點，如果通貨膨脹發生變化，就會出現某種類型的加速器。因此，合約中還有更多內容要嘗試預測是否有任何大型搬遷，而我們不會因此而燒毀。確實如此，這是我們未來所有合約的一部分。

On the second part of your question, I would say that contracts are for a shorter-duration now than what they were, you know, prior to COVID.

關於你問題的第二部分，我想說的是，現在的合約期限比新冠疫情之前的合約期限要短。

I appreciate that. And then lastly for me on labor. How do you all feel on that side of the equation and to the extent that you debottleneck further, unlock more capability, is there a more training or more hiring that you need to do? Or you feel like you're pretty equipped on the hiring front at this point. Thank you.

我很欣賞這一點。最後是我關於勞動的問題。你們對此有何感受？或者您覺得此時您在招募方面已經做好了準備。謝謝。

Yes. We have a couple of areas that we want to increase staffing, nowhere near the extent that it was three or four quarters ago, maybe a year ago when it was a real issue for us. We've passed that. But there are a couple of areas that we want to add some staffing.

是的。我們有幾個領域需要增加人員配置，但遠遠沒有達到三、四個季度前的程度，也許是一年前，當時這對我們來說是一個真正的問題。我們已經通過了。但我們希望在一些領域增加一些人員配置。

From a training standpoint, yes, that's going to continue for quite some time. I mean, you're replacing people with 35, 40 years with newer people and we're very happy with the progress that we've made, but there's always room for improvement there. As you know, these are very complex pieces of equipment. It takes a very skilled operator to run those. So, you know, you can't buy experience, right? You just got to put the time into the job. And we're pleased with the progress that our operators are making.

從培訓的角度來看，是的，這將持續相當長的一段時間。我的意思是，你用新人取代了 35 歲、40 歲的人，我們對所取得的進步感到非常滿意，但總是有改進的空間。如您所知，這些是非常複雜的設備。需要非常熟練的操作員來運行這些。所以，你知道，你買不到經驗，對吧？你只需要把時間投入工作。我們對營運商所取得的進展感到滿意。

Thank you so much.

太感謝了。

Yes, thank you, sir.

是的，謝謝您，先生。

Our next question is a follow up from Gautam Khanna with TD Cowen. Please go ahead.

我們的下一個問題是 Gautam Khanna 和 TD Cowen 的跟進。請繼續。

Hi, thanks for the follow-up. Curious, Tony, just to get your impressions or your opinion you've heard like GE talk about five troubled supplier sites and to an earlier question, I presume it's the forgings and castings houses. But I'm just curious, like do you have a view that maybe the buy-to-fly ratio is particularly sloppy right now? Pretty low right now and therefore, you're having the opportunity to, kind of, sell products more than once, if you will, just because their yields downstream are much worse than what was anticipated and what they might be a couple of years from now. And if that's the case, is there any negative implications of that longer term, as the buy-to-fly starts to may revert back to a better level?

您好，感謝您的關注。東尼，我很好奇，只是為了了解您的印像或您所聽到的意見，就像通用電氣談論的五個陷入困境的供應商地點一樣，對於之前的問題，我認為是鍛件和鑄件工廠。但我只是很好奇，你是否認為現在的購買與飛行比例可能特別草率？現在相當低，因此，如果您願意的話，您有機會多次銷售產品，只是因為它們下游的產量比預期的以及幾年後的產量要差得多現在。如果是這樣的話，隨著購買飛行的數量開始恢復到更好的水平，長期來看是否會產生任何負面影響？

You know, to be 100% honest, I mean there could be some of that. I mean you have some great insights into that side. That's not something that dominates the discussions I have with our commercial team and says, hi, we need to sell so much more, the demand is so much greater because of that. It just that hasn't come up with us.

你知道，百分之百誠實地說，我的意思是可能存在一些這樣的情況。我的意思是你對這方面有一些深刻的見解。這不是我與我們的商業團隊討論的主要內容，我說，嗨，我們需要銷售更多產品，因此需求更大。只是我們還沒想到。

So we don't see that as a major driver, which means there's not a hole in the future when that gets better. And as you well know too, Gautam, right now, I mean the gap between a supply of our specialty materials and the demand for them is pretty wide and I don't see that changing much.

因此，我們不認為這是一個主要驅動因素，這意味著當情況變得更好時，未來不會有任何漏洞。正如你也很清楚的那樣，高塔姆，現在，我的意思是我們的特種材料的供應和需求之間的差距相當大，我認為這種情況不會發生太大變化。

And I get where you're coming from, right? Because everybody is looking for that, hi, here's a move over here. How does that impact you? And you know, we're in a very unique position where we're able to navigate all those. And to summarize, I mean, I have not seen that be a high, you know, discussion point between myself and our commercial team.

我明白你來自哪裡，對嗎？因為每個人都在尋找這個，嗨，這裡有一個動作。這對你有何影響？你知道，我們處於一個非常獨特的位置，我們能夠駕馭所有這些。總而言之，我的意思是，我還沒有看到這是我自己和我們的商業團隊之間的一個高度討論點。

Yes. And I almost wonder like how it would be discernible. I guess it would just be if some of those customers that are having yield challenges are asking you to expedite shipments or asking for more than what you expected them to ask for as you move through a quarter or whatever.

是的。我幾乎想知道它是如何被辨別的。我想，這只是因為一些面臨產量挑戰的客戶要求您加快發貨速度，或者在您度過一個季度或其他時間時，要求的數量超出您的預期。

It's hard to say like what was the driver. I mean, we're getting those types of expedite requests across the board, right? And it could be many things. It could be this, there's a bunch of other things going on. So it's pick which one you want, but expedites and the desire of customers to move forward is real.

很難說司機是誰。我的意思是，我們全面收到了這些類型的加急請求，對吧？這可能有很多事情。可能是這樣，還有很多其他事情正在發生。因此，您需要選擇您想要的，但要加快速度，並且客戶前進的願望是真實的。

And that's one of the things we talked about earlier, Gautam, which is a really important point, because we can get very singular and hear a data point and say, hi, I heard from this entity that they're really pulling back on their orders. And if you dig deep, you'll say, well, yes, but that entity 90% I'm making this up a little bit, 99% of their businesses to the 737, of course, they're going to make adjustments.

這是我們之前討論過的事情之一，高塔姆，這是非常重要的一點，因為我們可以變得非常單一並聽到一個數據點並說，嗨，我從這個實體那裡聽說他們真的在撤回他們的政策訂單。如果你深入挖掘，你會說，嗯，是的，但是那個實體90%是我編造的，他們99%的業務都交給了737，當然，他們會做出調整。

Across the whole industry though, that's small and many other people then you move-in to take advantage of that. So that's why we're Gautam, that's why we were able with all of this noise, we just pulled our guidance our earnings guidance in another year, right? We took all that into consideration. And I think that's to me, that's extremely strong outlook for us over the next several years.

但在整個行業中，這個規模很小，而且還有很多其他人可以利用這一點。這就是為什麼我們是高塔姆，這就是為什麼我們能夠承受所有這些噪音，我們只是在另一年取消了我們的盈利指引，對嗎？我們考慮了所有這些。我認為這對我來說是我們未來幾年極其強勁的前景。

I appreciate that. And one last follow-up. I did hear you say 30% is possible at SAO, I'm not holding you to that obviously, but I am curious about pricing and your expectations longer-term for it. As the contracts that you've renewed with the shorter duration come up for renewal again in the next two or three years, presumably the price resets aren't going to be as great as they were, just given inflation is not going to be as high. But do you have like a ballpark I mean, are we thinking you're still going to get net price as you move out and renew? Is that still part of your base case when you look out beyond 2026?

我很欣賞這一點。最後一個後續行動。我確實聽到你說 SAO 可能達到 30%，我顯然不會要求你這麼做，但我對定價和你對它的長期期望感到好奇。隨著您以較短期限續約的合約在未來兩三年內再次續簽，價格重置可能不會像以前那麼嚴重，因為通貨膨脹不會像以前那樣嚴重高的。但是，我的意思是，您是否有一個大致的了解，我們是否認為您在搬出並續約時仍能獲得淨價？當您展望 2026 年後，這仍然是您的基本情境的一部分嗎？

Yes, I want to be careful there. I don't want to signal anything to the market what we may or may not do on the pricing side, right, because I don't think that's appropriate. But I will say that we believe that going-forward that the imbalance that we have where demand is going to exceed supply is going to continue for our products, right? I don't see anything that's going to solve that. And you know that's going to make that a, you know, an advantageous market for us going forward. And I'll leave it at that.

是的，我想在那裡小心一點。我不想向市場發出任何信號，告訴市場我們在定價方面可能會做什麼或不會做什麼，對吧，因為我認為這不合適。但我要說的是，我們相信，未來我們的產品將繼續出現需求超過供應的不平衡狀態，對吧？我看不出有什麼可以解決這個問題。你知道，這將使那成為我們未來的一個有利市場。我就這樣吧。

Okay. And you may have said it, but what was the fastener sequentially year-over-year?

好的。您可能已經說過了，但緊固件同比情況是怎樣的？

Yes, I did not. So thanks for bringing that up. Fastener sales up 11% year-over-year and 8% sequentially.

是的，我沒有。謝謝你提出這個問題。緊固件銷售額較去年同期成長 11%，較上季成長 8%。

Great. Thanks a lot, guys. Appreciate it.

偉大的。非常感謝，夥計們。欣賞它。

Yes. Thank you, Gautam.

是的。謝謝你，高塔姆。

Next question comes from Scott Deuschle with Deutsche Bank with a follow up. Please go ahead.

下一個問題來自德意志銀行的 Scott Deuschle 並進行了跟進。請繼續。

Hi, thanks. Tony, you made the point that Carpenter won't be making any big investments in capacity to rock the boat on supply-demand, but just theoretically, if another industry participant were to make a meaningful investment to expand capacity, do you have a sense for how long it would take for that to come online in a meaningful way? Is it like seven to eight years a reasonable framework for that duration?

你好，謝謝。東尼，你指出卡本特不會對產能進行任何大規模投資，從而擾亂供需關係，但只是理論上，如果另一個行業參與者要進行有意義的投資來擴大產能，你有感覺嗎？長時間才能以有意義的方式上線？七到八年是這個期限的合理框架嗎？

Yes, I think it's seven to 10 years. And I think it's important to take a step back. If that happened, right, that's still not going to really, as you say, rock the boat, right? The gap is pretty small.

是的，我認為是七到十年。我認為退後一步很重要。如果發生這種情況，對吧，正如你所說，這仍然不會真正造成麻煩，對吧？差距相當小。

The second piece that I said, I mean, we'll look at ways where we can increase capabilities and capacity. Like we're going to look at ways we can do that. There's not some big bang out there. You know, let's build a new plant, so to speak. And but back to your original question, you know, it's going to take several years to design.

我說的第二部分，我的意思是，我們將尋找提高能力和容量的方法。就像我們要尋找可以做到這一點的方法。那裡沒有什麼大爆炸。你知道，可以這麼說，讓我們建造一個新工廠。但回到你最初的問題，你知道，設計需要幾年的時間。

Even if it was someone like us that's been around for 140 years, it's going to take several years to design. It's going to take several years, 18 months to 24 months to build the equipment. It's very specialized equipment, and then pick your number, five years to qualify. There's nobody going to ease the qualification requirements.

即使像我們這樣已經存在了 140 年的人，設計起來也需要幾年的時間。建造這些設備需要幾年、18 個月到 24 個月的時間。這是非常專業的設備，然後選擇你的號碼，五年才能獲得資格。沒有人會放鬆資格要求。

So yes, it's a very long runway to get to that. And when you talk about is there someone else, you'd be talking about someone that has never done it before. So the, you know, the knowledge that's required to run these types of facilities is massive. So you don't just do that and learn how to do that in a couple of years. It's just not doable.

所以是的，要達到這個目標還有很長的路要走。當你談論是否有其他人時，你會談論一個以前從未做過這件事的人。所以，你知道，運作這些類型的設施所需的知識是巨大的。所以你不只是這樣做並在幾年內學會如何做到這一點。這是不可能的。

Got it. Do you think those qualification requirements are even tougher now given the powder metal contamination issue that Pratt had?

知道了。鑑於普拉特面臨的粉末金屬污染問題，您認為現在這些資格要求是否更加嚴格？

Well, I think we're in good place, right, Scott. I don't want to signal when or what levels it would be that we'd be in the market. But I think we're sitting at a very good place coming out of the year with about $200 million of cash on the balance sheet, a nice forecast going forward. I just believe it's all about execution for us now and it's a good time to be a shareholder, right? Because we've got a great earnings growth, we got great free-cash flow. We just put out a repurchase program that says that's going to be a meaningful use of our cash going forward.

嗯，我認為我們處在一個很好的位置，對吧，斯科特。我不想暗示我們將在何時或什麼水平進入市場。但我認為今年我們的處境非常好，資產負債表上有大約 2 億美元的現金，這是一個很好的預測。我只是相信現在對我們來說最重要的是執行力，現在是成為股東的好時機，對嗎？因為我們的獲利成長強勁，所以我們擁有大量的自由現金流。我們剛剛推出了回購計劃，該計劃表明這將是我們現金的一個有意義的用途。

I've just said we're going to look at growth CapEx that can be incremental to us. There's not that big thing that's going to flip the supply-and-demand and we look out over the next several years and see a very strong demand environment. But we're in a good spot right now, but we know we have to earn it every day and that's what that's what our team is focused on.

我剛剛說過，我們將考慮對我們來說可以增量的成長資本支出。沒有什麼大的事情會改變供需關係，我們展望未來幾年，將會看到非常強勁的需求環境。但我們現在處於一個很好的位置，但我們知道我們必須每天都贏得它，這就是我們團隊的重點。

Fantastic. And Tim, one question for you. Just anything on free cash flow for the first quarter worth calling out? Should we expect a typical seasonal outflow there or can the EBIT strength you're guiding to allow first quarter free cash flow to be closer to breakeven or maybe even positive?

極好的。提姆，有個問題想問你。第一季的自由現金流有什麼值得關注的嗎？我們是否應該預期那裡會出現典型的季節性資金流出，或者您所引導的息稅前利潤能否讓第一季自由現金流更接近盈虧平衡，甚至可能為正？

Yes, Scott, good morning. Like Tony said, the biggest driver for free cash flow is working capital, specifically inventory. That inventory is going to fluctuate seasonally, as you mentioned. So we're going to manage that as best we can and make good decisions. But our goal for overall for the year is to keep inventory relatively flat.

是的，斯科特，早安。正如托尼所說，自由現金流的最大驅動力是營運資金，特別是庫存。正如您所提到的，庫存會季節性波動。因此，我們將盡力管理並做出正確的決定。但我們今年的總體目標是保持庫存相對穩定。

Thank you.

謝謝。

This concludes our question-and-answer session. I would like to turn the conference back over to John Huyette for any closing remarks.

我們的問答環節到此結束。我想將會議轉回約翰·休耶特（John Huyette）發表閉幕詞。

Thank you, Operator. And thank you, everyone, for joining us today for our conference call. Have a great rest of your day.

謝謝你，接線生。感謝大家今天加入我們的電話會議。祝您有個愉快的一天。

Thank you. The conference has now concluded. Thank you for attending today's presentation. You may now disconnect.

謝謝。會議現已結束。感謝您參加今天的演講。您現在可以斷開連線。