Consumer Portfolio Services Inc (CPSS) 2023 Q3 法說會逐字稿

Good day, everyone, and welcome to the Consumer Portfolio Services 2023 Third Quarter Operating Results Conference Call. Today's call is being recorded.

大家好，歡迎參加消費者投資組合服務 2023 年第三季營運業績電話會議。今天的通話正在錄音。

Before we begin, management has asked me to inform you that this conference call may contain forward-looking statements. Any statements made during this call that are not statements of historical facts may be deemed forward-looking statements. Statements regarding current or historical valuation of receivables because dependent on estimates of future events also are forward-looking statements. All such forward-looking statements are subject to risks that could cause actual results to differ materially from those projected. I refer you to the company's annual report filed on March 13 for further clarification. The company assumes no obligation to update publicly any forward-looking statements whether as a result of new information for the events or otherwise.

在我們開始之前，管理層要求我通知您，本次電話會議可能包含前瞻性陳述。本次電話會議期間所做的任何非歷史事實陳述的陳述均可能被視為前瞻性陳述。由於依賴對未來事件的估計，有關應收帳款當前或歷史估值的陳述也屬於前瞻性陳述。所有此類前瞻性陳述都存在可能導致實際結果與預測有重大差異的風險。請您參閱該公司3月13日提交的年報以作進一步說明。該公司不承擔公開更新任何前瞻性陳述的義務，無論是由於事件的新資訊還是其他原因。

With us here is Mr. Charles Bradley, Chief Executive Officer; Mr. Danny Bharwani, Chief Financial Officer; and Mr. Mike Lavin, President and Chief Operating Officer of Consumer Portfolio Services.

與我們在一起的是首席執行官查爾斯·布拉德利 (Charles Bradley) 先生； Danny Bharwani 先生，財務長；以及 Consumer Portfolio Services 總裁兼營運長 Mike Lavin 先生。

I will now turn the call over to Mr. Bradley.

我現在會把電話轉給布拉德利先生。

Thank you, and welcome, everyone, to the CPS third quarter conference call. In terms of opening comments, I think what we used to say a few quarters ago was, generally speaking, that our industry was returning to the pre-pandemic levels in terms of loss expectations and performance.

謝謝大家，歡迎大家參加 CPS 第三季電話會議。就開場評論而言，我認為我們幾個季度前常說的是，一般來說，我們的行業在損失預期和業績方面正在恢復到大流行前的水平。

And since then, obviously, in the last few quarters, we've had a lot of things happen to make that return more bumpy. Things like has become a huge focus on the portfolio performance from the '21, '22 vintages. Also interest rates, obviously, much higher. Therefore, cost of funds is much higher. So -- and then just a consumer position in terms of inflation, lots of little things that all together make it a difficult time.

從那時起，顯然，在過去的幾個季度中，我們發生了很多事情，使回報更加坎坷。諸如此類的事情已成為「21」、「22」年份投資組合表現的一大焦點。顯然，利率也高得多。因此，資金成本要高得多。所以——然後就是通貨膨脹方面的消費者狀況，很多小事加在一起讓這段時間變得困難。

The good news is, even having said that, we turned in another strong quarter, and we're at a size now and we've been through all these problems before in numerous different iterations, and CPS is in a very good position to weather any potential storm. And it really looks like given our situation in the industry with other competitors that we're probably in a much better position today than lots of other people than we would have been in other previous scenarios.

好消息是，儘管如此，我們又迎來了一個強勁的季度，我們現在已經達到了一定規模，而且我們之前已經在無數次不同的迭代中遇到過所有這些問題，而且CPS 處於非常有利的位置來應對這些問題。任何潛在的風暴。考慮到我們在行業中與其他競爭對手的情況，看起來我們今天可能比許多其他人處於比之前其他情況下更好的位置。

The size of our portfolio, the size of the company, the experience we have and the credit controls we have in place, have put us in a good position today. And I would think, going forward, we can prove that even better. And I'll touch on that a little more after we go through the financials and the operations update.

我們的投資組合規模、公司規模、我們擁有的經驗以及我們所實施的信貸控制，使我們今天處於有利地位。我認為，展望未來，我們可以更好地證明這一點。在我們了解財務和營運更新後，我將進一步討論這一點。

And so with that, I'll turn it over to Danny.

所以，我會把它交給丹尼。

Thanks, Brad. Going over the financials. We'll start with revenues. Revenue for the quarter, $92.1 million is 8% higher than the $84.9 million in our second quarter of this year and 2% higher than the $90.3 million in the third quarter of last year. For the 9-month period ending September 30, revenues were $260 million, which is 5% higher than the $246.7 million in the third -- the 3 quarters of 2022.

謝謝，布拉德。回顧一下財務狀況。我們將從收入開始。本季營收為 9,210 萬美元，比今年第二季的 8,490 萬美元高出 8%，比去年第三季的 9,030 萬美元高出 2%。截至 9 月 30 日的 9 個月期間，營收為 2.6 億美元，比 2022 年第三季（即 3 季）的 2.467 億美元高出 5%。

Of note here, our fair value portfolio is now $2.7 billion, continuing to grow. If you've been listening to these calls in the past, you will know that the yield on the fair value portfolio is risk-adjusted and it's after losses, and that portfolio is yielding 11.3% in the current period.

值得注意的是，我們的公允價值投資組合目前為 27 億美元，並且持續成長。如果您過去一直在聽這些電話，您就會知道公允價值投資組合的收益率是經過風險調整的，並且是在損失之後，而該投資組合當前時期的收益率為 11.3%。

Also included in revenues for this quarter is a fair value mark. It's a markup in Q3 of $6 million. That compares to a markup of $8.1 million in Q3 of 2022. For the year-to-date period, that markup is $15.2 million in 2022 and $6 million in -- for the 3 quarters of 2023. The markup is a result of better-than-expected performance in our fair value portfolio, mainly the older vintages that have outperformed our initial expectation. And we recognize the benefits we received from our collections and losses from those portfolios, and that's resulting in the markup that you're seeing. That's included in revenues for all the 4 periods we're comparing.

本季度的營收還包括公允價值標記。第三季的加價為 600 萬美元。相較之下，2022 年第三季的加價為810 萬美元。從年初至今，2022 年的加價為1,520 萬美元，2023 年第3 季的加價為600 萬美元。這一加價是以下因素的結果：我們的公允價值投資組合的表現超出預期，主要是較舊年份的表現超出了我們最初的預期。我們認識到我們從收款中獲得的收益以及從這些投資組合中獲得的損失，這導致了您所看到的加價。這包含在我們比較的所有 4 個時期的收入中。

Moving on to expenses. It's $77.9 million in the current quarter compared to $66.3 million in the second quarter of '23. That's a 17% increase in expenses. That is compared to $56 million in the third quarter of last year, which is a 39% increase. For the year-to-date period, expenses are $208.8 million for the 9 months ending 2023 compared to $148.8 million last year, which is a 40% increase.

繼續討論支出。當前季度的銷售額為 7,790 萬美元，而 2023 年第二季的銷售額為 6,630 萬美元。這意味著費用增加了 17%。與去年第三季的 5,600 萬美元相比，成長了 39%。今年迄今，截至 2023 年的 9 個月的費用為 2.088 億美元，而去年為 1.488 億美元，成長了 40%。

Two things of note in terms of expenses, all -- again, all 4 periods that we're comparing here include an adjustment to our legacy portfolio, and that's the portfolio that's not accounted for under fair value. These are accounted for using CECL, and we posted a lifetime loss reserve on these loans. And over time, we've realized that the performance has come in better than expected, and we were able to reverse the loss provisions we took for this portfolio.

在費用方面，有兩件事值得注意，再次強調，我們在這裡比較的所有 4 個時期都包括對我們的遺留投資組合的調整，而這是未計入公允價值的投資組合。這些貸款使用 CECL 進行核算，我們對這些貸款設立了終身損失準備金。隨著時間的推移，我們意識到業績好於預期，我們能夠扭轉為此投資組合提列的損失撥備。

The reversing of loss provisions helped to reduce expenses by $2 million in the third quarter compared to $6 million in the third quarter of last year. For the 9 months, that reversal of loss provision is $20.7 million compared to $23.4 million in the 3 quarters of 2022.

損失準備金的轉回幫助第三季的開支減少了 200 萬美元，而去年第三季的開支為 600 萬美元。過去 9 個月，損失準備金轉回金額為 2,070 萬美元，而 2022 年第 3 季的損失準備金轉回金額為 2,340 萬美元。

The other driver of the additional expenses is interest expense, that interest expense is $37.9 million in the current quarter, $106 million for the year-to-date period, and that compares to $23.5 million in the third quarter of last year and 57 -- $58.7 million last year.

額外費用的另一個驅動因素是利息支出，本季的利息支出為 3,790 萬美元，年初至今為 1.06 億美元，而去年第三季的利息支出為 2,350 萬美元，57 -去年為 5,870 萬美元。

For the most part, that increase in interest expense is attributable to higher interest costs. The portfolio size is also greater. So that's partly contributing to increased costs. But the real driver of that is obviously the increase in rates that we've seen. In fact, to further quantify the increase in interest expense, it's up 61% quarter-over-quarter and 81% year-over-year.

在很大程度上，利息支出的增加是由於利息成本上升。投資組合規模也更大。因此，這在一定程度上導致了成本增加。但真正的推動因素顯然是我們所看到的利率上升。事實上，進一步量化利息支出的成長情況，較上季成長了 61%，較去年同期成長了 81%。

Looking at pretax earnings. It's $14.2 million in the current quarter, $34.3 million in the quarter last year. For the 9-month period, $51.3 million this year versus $97.9 million last year. That's a 48% decrease. We're seeing the same trends in net income and earnings per share.

看看稅前收益。本季為 1,420 萬美元，去年季為 3,430 萬美元。在 9 個月期間，今年的收入為 5,130 萬美元，而去年為 9,790 萬美元。下降了 48%。我們在淨利潤和每股收益上看到了相同的趨勢。

Net income was $10.4 million in the current quarter, $25.4 million last year. That's a 59% decrease. For the 9-month period, $38.2 million versus $71.8 million last year. So net income is down 47%, similar to the rate of decline in pretax earnings. And again, obviously, diluted earnings per share will reflect and manifest those same trends, $0.41 per diluted share this quarter compared to $0.95 last year, $1.51 for the 3 quarters ending September 30 this year versus $2.61 last year.

本季淨利為 1,040 萬美元，去年為 2,540 萬美元。下降了 59%。過去 9 個月期間，銷售額為 3,820 萬美元，而去年為 7,180 萬美元。因此淨利潤下降了 47%，與稅前收益的下降幅度相似。顯然，稀釋後每股收益也將反映並反映出同樣的趨勢，本季稀釋後每股收益為0.41 美元，而去年為0.95 美元；截至9 月30 日的三個季度為1.51 美元，去年為2.61美元。

Moving on to the balance sheet. Our fair value portfolio grew by 2% over the June quarter and 14% year-over-year, driven by healthy origination levels throughout the year. Our securitization debt is up only 1% sequentially and 9% year-over-year. So this shows an area of strength on our balance sheet, where we're able to maintain our liquidity despite lower leverage on our loan portfolio.

繼續看資產負債表。在全年健康的創始水準的推動下，我們的公允價值投資組合在 6 月季度成長了 2%，年增了 14%。我們的證券化債務年增 1%，年增 9%。因此，這顯示了我們資產負債表上的一個優勢領域，儘管我們的貸款組合槓桿率較低，但我們仍能夠保持流動性。

Another area of strength is our shareholders' equity. The $265.9 million we posted at 9/30 this year, is an all-time high for the company. driven by 48 consecutive quarters of pretax profitability. So we've shown our durability that over the last 12 years, we've been able to post quarterly profits throughout the entire period.

我們的另一個優勢領域是股東權益。今年 9 月 30 日，我們發布的 2.659 億美元的營收創下了該公司的歷史新高。受到連續 48 個季度稅前利潤的推動。因此，我們展示了我們的耐用性，在過去 12 年裡，我們能夠在整個期間公佈季度利潤。

Looking at some other metrics. Our net interest margin is $54.2 million in the current quarter versus $66.8 million in the third quarter last year. That's a decrease of 19%. For the year-to-date period, $153.7 million this year versus $188 million last year. That's a decrease of 18%.

看看其他一些指標。本季我們的淨利差為 5,420 萬美元，而去年第三季為 6,680 萬美元。下降了 19%。今年迄今為止，該數字為 1.537 億美元，而去年為 1.88 億美元。下降了 18%。

Core operating expenses of $42 million in the current quarter, $38.5 million last year, $123.1 million for the 9-month period this year versus $113.6 million last year, that's an increase of 8%. And measured against the managed portfolio, core operating expenses are 5.7% this year, this quarter versus 5.8% in the third quarter of last year. 5.7% also for the year-to-date period this year versus 6.1% for the 9 months in 2022.

本季核心營運費用為 4,200 萬美元，去年為 3,850 萬美元，今年前 9 個月的核心營運費用為 1.231 億美元，而去年為 1.136 億美元，成長了 8%。與管理投資組合相比，今年本季的核心營運費用為 5.7%，而去年第三季為 5.8%。今年年初至今的成長率為 5.7%，而 2022 年 9 個月的成長率為 6.1%。

And lastly, our return on managed assets, 1.9% this quarter 5.2% last year, on an annualized basis, 2.4% in 2023 and 5.3% for the 9 months in 2022.

最後，我們的管理資產報酬率以年化計算，本季為 1.9%，去年為 5.2%，2023 年為 2.4%，2022 年 9 個月為 5.3%。

I will turn over the call to Mike to go over some of the operational aspects.

我會將電話轉給麥克，以討論一些操作上的問題。

All right. Thanks, Danny. In originations, the third quarter remains solid as we purchased $322 million of new contracts. That compares to $318 million in new contracts in Q2 and that compares to $468 million of new contracts during the third quarter of 2022.

好的。謝謝，丹尼。就最初而言，第三季保持穩健，我們購買了 3.22 億美元的新合約。相比之下，第二季的新合約價值為 3.18 億美元，2022 年第三季的新合約價值為 4.68 億美元。

The slight uptick quarter-over-quarter in originations reflects the strong demand in our space. The reduction in volume year-over-year was certainly purposeful as we scaled back due to certain macroeconomic headwinds that Brad discussed, and we continue to operate with a tighter credit box and kept a keen eye on affordability of our product for our customers.

發源量較上季略有上升反映了我們領域的強勁需求。銷售量同比下降當然是有目的的，因為我們由於布拉德討論的某些宏觀經濟逆風而縮減了規模，並且我們繼續以更嚴格的信貸條件運營，並密切關注客戶對我們產品的承受能力。

In terms of the ever important affordability factor in our space, we continue to hold firm on our payment to income and debt-to-income ratios. Equally important, our monthly payment remained relatively low for our space at $531. That compares to the upper 500s for a used car price that's irrespective of a subprime customer or a near prime customer. And that compares to a car payment in the upper 700s for a new car. So our payment target remains quite low for our space.

就我們領域中日益重要的負擔能力因素而言，我們繼續堅持我們的付款與收入和債務與收入的比率。同樣重要的是，我們的空間每月付款仍然相對較低，為 531 美元。相比之下，二手車價格高達 500 多美元，無論是次級客戶還是接近優質客戶。相比之下，購買一輛新車需要花費 700 多美元。因此，對於我們的領域來說，我們的付款目標仍然很低。

As I mentioned, demand remained strong in the third quarter. We are getting roughly 8,000 applications a day, which is roughly the same as we receive in 2022 when we originated a 31-year company record of $1.85 billion.

正如我所提到的，第三季需求依然強勁。我們每天收到大約 8,000 份申請，與 2022 年收到的申請大致相同，當時我們創造了 31 年的公司 18.5 億美元記錄。

Our approval rate ticked down to 51%, which is significantly down from 2022 Q3 of 70%. Again, that's not a cause for concern as that drop was purposeful as we significantly tightened our credit box at the end of 2022 and really dug in at the beginning of 2023 on that credit tightening.

我們的支持率下降至 51%，與 2022 年第三季的 70% 相比大幅下降。同樣，這並不是令人擔憂的原因，因為這種下降是有目的的，因為我們在 2022 年底大幅收緊了信貸框架，並在 2023 年初真正開始實行信貸緊縮。

Specifically, we tightened our LTV, we cap payments in certain program segments. We've tightened job stability and residency requirements, and we definitely made less exceptions. Again, this has lowered our approval percentage, but most significantly and especially more importantly, it's lowered our LTVs, which is a leading indicator of losses.

具體來說，我們收緊了生命週期價值，並限制了某些節目片段的付款。我們收緊了工作穩定性和居住要求，而且我們確實減少了例外情況。這再次降低了我們的支持率，但最顯著、尤其更重要的是，它降低了我們的生命週期價值（LTV），這是損失的領先指標。

Our average amount financed for the quarter was $20,100, which is down about $900 quarter-over-quarter and down a whopping $3,000 in Q3 of 2022. This drop is likely the result of a major pullback in back-end products that we offer, specifically warranty and GAAP. So we've allowed less of those back-end products to be financed, which has lowered the LTV caps, which has lowered the amount financed. And this has also contributed to our monthly payment remaining relatively low compared to our peers.

我們本季的平均融資金額為 20,100 美元，環比下降約 900 美元，2022 年第三季則大幅下降 3,000 美元。這一下降可能是我們提供的後端產品大幅縮減的結果，特別是保固和公認會計準則。因此，我們允許較少的後端產品進行融資，這降低了 LTV 上限，從而降低了融資金額。這也導致我們的每月付款與同行相比仍然相對較低。

We continue to hold a strong APR in Q3, registering an average APR of 21%, which is about 0.5 point lower quarter-over-quarter and significantly higher than the average APR in Q3 of 2022 of 18%. Again, it's important to recognize that this APR was achieved despite materially tightening our credit box in late '22 and early 2023.

我們在第三季繼續保持強勁的年利率，平均年利率為 21%，環比下降約 0.5 個百分點，顯著高於 2022 年第三季 18% 的平均年利率。同樣，重要的是要認識到，儘管我們在 22 年底和 2023 年初大幅收緊了信貸額度，但仍實現了這一年利率。

In terms of competition, we continue to see ways to credit unions come in and come out of the space with lower rates. And then they basically pull out of the space when they realize the losses don't meet their expectations. But like I said, demand remains strong. So there's more than enough business for the 5 or 6 market makers in the space, including us.

在競爭方面，我們繼續尋找信用合作社以較低利率進入和退出這一領域的方法。然後，當他們意識到損失沒有達到他們的預期時，他們基本上就會退出這個領域。但正如我所說，需求仍然強勁。因此，該領域的 5 或 6 家做市商（包括我們）擁有足夠的業務。

In terms of growth, there remains a tremendous opportunity as there are no new entrants into the market. Regional players are continuing to pull out and credit unions continually learn month-over-month that this is probably not their best target market. We are holding firm at $100 million a month until we see the fruits of our credit tightening and our portfolio performance. But nonetheless, we are planning to grow when the time requires it.

就成長而言，由於沒有新進入者進入市場，因此仍然存在巨大的機會。區域參與者繼續退出，信用合作社逐月不斷了解到，這可能不是他們的最佳目標市場。我們堅持每月 1 億美元的價格，直到我們看到信貸緊縮和投資組合表現的成果。但儘管如此，我們仍計劃在時間需要時進行成長。

Moving on to portfolio performance. Certainly, there's macroeconomic headwinds that are weighing on some of our more recent vintages, particularly the 2022s and early 2023 vintages. Inflation and raising interest rates are the headwinds that make affordability and issue for our customers. That's -- but we must consider that that's balanced out with the fact that there's been no recession yet. Most talking heads believe that there's not going to be a recession. And if there is one, it's going to be very soft in short. And equally, if not more important, the unemployment rate still hovers in the mid-3s, which is well below the target 5s, which is one of the key economic metrics that we monitor for the success of our business. So we're looking good there.

轉向投資組合表現。當然，宏觀經濟的逆風正在給我們最近的一些年份葡萄酒帶來壓力，尤其是 2022 年和 2023 年初的年份葡萄酒。通貨膨脹和利率上升是影響我們客戶承受能力和問題的不利因素。但我們必須考慮到這一點與尚未出現衰退的事實相平衡。大多數評論家都認為不會出現經濟衰退。如果有的話，簡而言之它會非常柔軟。同樣，如果不是更重要的話，失業率仍然徘徊在 3 多歲左右，遠低於 5 多歲的目標，這是我們監控業務成功的關鍵經濟指標之一。所以我們在那裡看起來不錯。

For the quarter, DQ delinquencies, including repossession inventory, ended at 13.31% of the total portfolio as compared to 10.85% in the same quarter in 2022. Annualized net charge-offs for the quarter were 6.86% of the portfolio as compared to 4.93% in the same quarter of 2022. Extensions were up slightly, but still at average over the course of the last 5 years. and repossessions were actually down quarter-over-quarter.

本季度，包括收回庫存在內的 DQ 拖欠額佔投資組合總額的 13.31%，而 2022 年同一季度為 10.85%。本季年化淨沖銷佔投資組合的 6.86%，而 2022 年同期為 4.93% 2022年同一季度。延期略有增加，但仍處於過去5 年的平均水平。收回數量實際上逐季下降。

On the recovery front, we -- which helps offset our losses, we're happy to report that recoveries are stabilizing in the low 40s, which is up from the low 30s, which we experienced earlier this year. That's something that we don't control that we're seeing is coming our way to help our performance going forward.

在復甦方面，我們很高興地報告，復甦率穩定在 40 多歲左右，這有助於抵消我們的損失，這比今年早些時候我們經歷的 30 多歲低位有所上升。這是我們無法控制的事情，但我們看到它正在出現，以幫助我們的業績向前發展。

So -- well, our portfolio performance has picked up overall in Q3, we are taking so less and the fact that at least from what we've heard in the market from investors, from bankers that we are outperforming our competitors in the space.

因此，我們的投資組合表現在第三季度總體有所回升，我們的投資減少了，事實上，至少從我們在市場上從投資者和銀行家那裡聽到的情況來看，我們在該領域的表現優於競爭對手。

In the quarter, we also continued to employ several unique strategic changes to improve performance, especially on collection tactics. We were successful in hiring 96 new collectors over the last 10 months to lower our accounts per collector by over 100. This allows more in-depth collection tactics such as skip tracing and talk offs, and we believe that this is improving our performance the last couple of months and going forward.

在本季度，我們也繼續採用一些獨特的策略變革來提高績效，特別是在收款策略方面。在過去10 個月裡，我們成功聘用了96 名新收款員，將每位收款員的帳戶數量減少了100 多個。這使得我們可以採取更深入的收款策略，例如跳過追蹤和談話，我們相信這會提高我們去年的業績幾個月並繼續前進。

We also built out or built up our near shore collection program to focus on potential EQ accounts. reduce the roll rate and increase the use of our power dialers. So it's all hands on deck on servicing to collect the 2022 and early 2023 vintages.

我們還制定或建立了我們的近岸收款計劃，以專注於潛在的 EQ 帳戶。降低滾動率並增加我們的電源撥號器的使用。因此，所有人都在全力以赴地進行服務，以收集 2022 年和 2023 年初的年份葡萄酒。

One last thing. In the quarter, we launched our Gen 8 originations model. This model is a complete refresh of our Gen 7 model, been launched in 2021. We try to refresh these models every 18 to 24 months. So we hit our target on implementing the Gen 8 model. This model utilizes machine learning AI, our most recent originations to better score applicants. It's infused with updated alternative data and importantly, some new fraud scores to reduce fraud. But we believe that this is our best buy box yet. And we also believe that should improve performance going forward.

最後一件事。在本季度，我們推出了第 8 代起源模型。此型號是我們於 2021 年推出的第 7 代型號的徹底更新。我們嘗試每 18 至 24 個月更新一次這些型號。因此，我們實現了實施第 8 代模型的目標。該模型利用我們最新的機器學習人工智慧來更好地為申請人評分。它注入了更新的替代數據，更重要的是，注入了一些新的詐欺分數以減少詐欺。但我們相信這是我們迄今為止最好的購買框架。我們也相信，這應該會提高未來的績效。

So with that, I'll kick it back to Brad.

那麼，我會把它踢回給布拉德。

Thanks, Mike. So that's a lot of information in terms of what the company has been doing. In terms of where we sit in the industry as both guys pointed out, it's been so much turbulent times. Everyone got quite aggressive after the -- during the pandemic with all the money flowing to the customers and people grew a lot and we're aggressive. We're now all as an industry, beginning to pay the price for that because the '22 performance has not been as good as anybody expected.

謝謝，麥克。因此，關於該公司一直在做什麼的資訊很多。正如兩位人士所指出的，就我們在行業中的地位而言，這是一個非常動盪的時期。在大流行期間，每個人都變得非常積極，流向客戶和人員的所有資金都成長了很多，我們非常積極。現在，作為一個行業，我們都開始為此付出代價，因為 22 年的表現並不像任何人預期的那麼好。

Again, as the guys pointed out, our performance has actually been way better than -- better than some and way better than most. So we're kind of happy with where we sit. It kind of means our control is really hung in there. However, what that does leave us sitting in, in a position where we're not really ready to go full bore again, where we would like to start growing again.

再次，正如這些人指出的那樣，我們的表現實際上比某些人好得多，比大多數人好得多。所以我們對我們坐的地方很滿意。這有點意味著我們的控制權確實掛在那裡。然而，這確實讓我們處於一個尚未真正準備好再次全力以赴的境地，我們希望再次開始成長。

But we need to do 2 things. We need to let the '22 vintage get through the pipeline, which it's doing. We were -- initially, we're a little worried about the '21 vintage, but that's all the net fine. '22, we would expect to track the same way. It's going to be higher losses than we expected, but not nearly as bad as some. And again, certainly a lot better than a bunch of others. And so in terms of that, we're good.

但我們需要做兩件事。我們需要讓 22 年份的葡萄酒通過管道，而它正在這樣做。最初，我們有點擔心 21 年份的葡萄酒，但一切都很好。 '22，我們希望以同樣的方式進行追蹤。損失將比我們預期的要高，但不會像某些損失那麼嚴重。再說一遍，肯定比其他許多人好得多。就這一點而言，我們做得很好。

The next thing we need is we need the '23 vintage, which is still quite young to show that the improvements and changes we made in late '22 and early '23, are, in fact, the proper moves and will hold. Now against all that, inflation is hurting our customers' performance, higher interest rates is cutting our margins. So there's a bunch of things recovery rates are returning to normal. There's a bunch of little items that again are making it, life somewhat difficult.

接下來我們需要的是 23 年份，它還很年輕，以表明我們在 22 年底和 23 年初所做的改進和改變實際上是正確的舉措並將持續下去。現在，儘管如此，通貨膨脹正在損害我們客戶的業績，更高的利率正在削減我們的利潤。所以有很多事情恢復率正在恢復正常。有一堆小事再次讓生活變得有些困難。

And given what we've done, I think we're in a very strong position to get through it. No problem. We've been doing this forever. This isn't easily the worst thing at all we've ever seen or had to get through. So we're confident where we go.

鑑於我們所做的事情，我認為我們處於非常有利的地位來度過難關。沒問題。我們一直在做這件事。這並不是我們見過或必須經歷的最糟糕的事情。所以我們對我們要去的地方充滿信心。

And again, I think just really getting to the next few months, the first half of '24 will be very strong. It's usually one of the strongest performance months. So that should hopefully take care of the problems in '22 and put that behind us and then we can look to grow again in '23.

再說一次，我認為真正進入接下來的幾個月，24 年上半年將會非常強勁。這通常是表現最強的月份之一。因此，這有望解決 22 年的問題並將其拋在腦後，然後我們可以在 23 年再次成長。

It would also appear hopefully that interest rates will at least stay flat, potentially come down. Also that inflation will continue to ease. And so we're very optimistic about the future in terms of what we've done.

看來利率至少會維持不變，甚至可能下降。此外，通膨將持續緩解。因此，就我們所做的事情而言，我們對未來非常樂觀。

Again, us and everyone else has to sort of slug through the problems of '22 and get through '23. But '24 should be a very positive position for both the industry and our company in particular. So we'll see how that goes. Again, we're big enough. We've done it before. We're not particularly worried, and we're actually quite pleased with how well we've done and compared to lots of other folks, which is one of the first times, we can clearly identify that our program has worked very, very well.

再說一次，我們和其他人都必須解決 22 年的問題並度過 23 年。但‘24’對於整個行業，尤其是我們公司來說，應該是一個非常積極的局面。所以我們會看看情況如何。再說一次，我們夠大。我們以前已經做過了。我們並不特別擔心，實際上我們對自己的表現非常滿意，與許多其他人相比，這是我們第一次可以清楚地認識到我們的計劃運作得非常非常好。

With that, we'll just thank you all for being here, and we'll speak to you next quarter. Thanks for tuning in, and see you then.

至此，我們將感謝大家來到這裡，我們將在下個季度與您交談。感謝您收聽，到時見。

Thank you. And this concludes today's teleconference. A replay will be available beginning 2 hours from now for 12 months via the company's website at www.consumerportfolio.com. Please disconnect your lines at this time, and have a wonderful day.

謝謝。今天的電話會議到此結束。從現在開始 2 小時起，您可以透過公司網站 www.consumerportfolio.com 重播，為期 12 個月。請此時斷開線路，祝您有美好的一天。