使用警語:中文譯文來源為 Google 翻譯,僅供參考,實際內容請以英文原文為主
Operator
Good day, everyone, and welcome to the Consumer Portfolio Services first quarter 2006 earnings release conference call. Today's call is being recorded.
Before we begin, management has asked me to inform you that this conference call may contain forward-looking statements within the meaning of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. Any statements made during this call that are not statements of historical fact may be deemed to be forward-looking statements. Such forward-looking statements are subject to certain risks that could cause actual results to differ materially from those projected. I refer you to the Company's SEC filings for further clarification. The Company assumes no obligation to update publicly any forward-looking statements whether as a result of new information, future events or otherwise.
I will now turn the call over to your host, Charles E. Bradley, Chief Executive Officer of Consumer Portfolio Services.
Charles Bradley - President and CEO
Thank you, and good morning to everyone attending the call. Looking at the quarter, obviously, we're very happy with the results. We had another really good quarter. I think in looking at it, the one thing we did is the earnings were up, but the per share number was a little bit flat. The result -- the cause of that is really because we had a really great quarter in terms of originations.
So on the one hand the earnings didn't quite show the jump or improvement we might like, but still they improved, so we're happy with them. But the reasoning behind it is very significant in that we had such a good quarter on originations. And when you have such a good originations quarter like we did, you're going to have a more -- lot much larger provision than you would normally expect. And being able to have that provision and still have our numbers certainly is significant.
But more importantly, the thing we've been working on for the last couple of years, and as I've said in numerous other calls, is we're trying to get our originations ramped up, and we have, in fact, been able to do that in the last quarter. But the provisioning that goes along with that ramp-up does have an effect on the bottom line.
So overall, it was a very good quarter. The one other thing that we did of note in the quarter is we began the deferral of some of the direct costs of origination of loans, which is in accordance with FAS 91. Before now, it really wasn't a material part. The numbers weren't material enough to do that. As of now, discussions with our auditors and such, we decided to start that deferral and everyone else in the industry has been doing it all along. So it's something that's common practice amongst all the other players and something we needed to start doing. And so that would be the other effect and that shows as a decrease in some of the employee expense.
Those would really be the two significant items on the quarter. One, we had a very big quarter for growth, and therefore, the provisioning was quite significant. And two, we began the deferral of some of the direct origination costs, I mean, the direct cost of originating loans through the deferral -- to defer those costs over the life of the loan in accordance with FAS 91. And as I said, it's now probably material enough of a number that we needed to do it. In the past, it really wasn't.
In terms of the overall quarter, in looking at the different areas, marketing is beginning to pick up. We are, in fact, getting some results from our yearlong effort of increasing the marketing force and getting more penetration in different markets. And we are seeing that. We did have a big origination quarter, the month of March, I think was 101 million, which is the best month we've had in almost eight years. So we are seeing some fruits from the marketing. Probably -- a little downside of the marketing is the market is still quite weak in terms of car sales. And so it is the effort of broadening our reach moreso than the robust car sales or the economy.
In terms of originations, we're probably seeing even better results than we could have imagined in terms of how the originations process works. The controls we now have in place and the scorecard we use are probably even tighter than we expected. And so the quality of the paper we're currently originating is even better than we had anticipated. And that goes hand-in-hand with collections. Collections had a marvelous quarter. The delinquency dropped below 2%, which is pretty much unheard of for sub-prime paper.
But the combination of both originations and collections and asset recovery, we've been doing very well in the asset recovery or the collection of the end of the loan. The auction prices are the best they've been in a long time. And so you have a real nice combination of the controls in originations are really good, the collections are doing great, and our proceeds of the auctions and the asset recovery results are even better than we could have expected. And all three are producing, as a result, very good paper performance as you'll see when we walk through those numbers.
So overall, we're very happy with the way everything is working and we look forward to continuing just that way. So now looking at the numbers, in terms of revenue, the quarter's revenue was 58 million, up from 54.7 in December and significantly up from the 41.8 in the year ago quarter. The last 12 months for revenue was 209.9 - call it 210 million versus 193 based on the December year ago 12 months and for the equivalent year March of '05, it's up from 147. So the revenue is up significantly year-over-year.
The expenses for the quarter were 56.2 million. That's up a little bit from 53 in the previous quarter and up from 42 a year before quarter. And probably the major drivers of that increase in expenses is the loss provision is up, and then the interest, because now everything is on balance sheets as the portfolio increases, so will that interest expense associated with the portfolio.
And looking at the loss provision, which I mentioned earlier, the loss provision was 19.1 million versus 15.6 million in the previous quarter. That's almost a 4 million jump in one quarter on the provision, and that's up from year-over-year from 12.3 million. So again, you can see that as we grow that's going to sort of push the actual bottomline results further out. So as much as it sort of softens the numbers a little bit currently, as the portfolio continues to grow, the results down the road will be very significant.
In looking at the net income for the quarter, it was 1.8 million. That's up from 1.7 million in the previous quarter and obviously up a lot from a $200,000 loss in the year ago quarter. The last 12 months was 5.4 million on the March -- this March quarter versus 14.7 loss in the 12 months a year ago. Diluted shares were $0.07 earnings on both this quarter and the previous quarter. That's up from a $0.01 loss in the year ago quarter.
Cash on the balance sheet is currently -- breaking it out, the cash on hand is 25.5, up from 17 million in the previous quarter and up from 9.7 on the year ago quarter. The restricted cash number now stands at 212 million versus 157.7 in the previous quarter and 150 million in the year ago quarter. Total 237.9 versus 175 in the previous quarter and 159 in the year ago quarter. So again, as we continue to grow and do more securitizations and post more cash reserves into the securitizations, the restricted cash will grow right along with that originations growth.
In looking at the finance receivables, the finance receivables net currently stand at 1.50 billion versus 913 million the previous quarter and 620 million in the year ago quarter. So if you look at that comparison, it's up very significantly quarter-to-quarter and up -- almost getting close to a double year-to-year. So we have, in fact, been able to achieve some of the growth we've been waiting for and working for over in the last year.
In looking at the debt, the really significant thing to look at is the residual interest financing, it's decreased by 6 million. So we paid off 6 million in debt there. We paid off $2 million of long-term debt. So along with everything else, we reduced our debt in this quarter by 18 million. The long-term debt now stands at 84 million versus 102 million in the previous quarter and 90 million in the year ago quarter. The securitization debt is up to 1.175 billion versus 959 million the previous quarter and 669 million in the year ago quarter. Again, those numbers should all trend along with originations growth.
In looking at the portfolio performance, portfolio performance is obviously a really key driver of how the business works. And we couldn't be more happy with the results we're getting these day, as I mentioned earlier. The delinquency for the quarter was 2.67%. That's down from the previous quarter of 4.86 and a year ago quarter of 2.9. So whether you're looking at the seasonally quote "bad quarter" in the fourth quarter of 4.86, coming down to 2.67 is a very significant improvement quarter-to-quarter. And comparing this quarter to the previous year's quarter at 2.91, it's still a nice improvement. So those numbers just continue to trend better and better than, as I said, than we expected.
In looking at the annualized losses for the quarter, it was 4.6%. That's compared to the December quarter of 5.69% and the year ago quarter of 5.65. Again, if you look at that comparison, quarter-to-quarter, you would expect some drop going from the fourth to the first, but if you look at the year-to-year going from 5.65 to 4.6, is a very significant improvement. We're not really sure where the target losses will come out, but it's safe to say they'll be better than we expected.
In looking at the consolidated portfolio, it currently stands at 1.240 million versus 1.121 billion in the last quarter and 926 million in the year-ago quarter. The consolidated or what we'll call the CPS originated portion to portfolio is now up to 92%, which shows that the other -- the acquisition portfolios are really getting close to the end of their time. Those were acquired at this point between almost four years ago and three years ago. So the acquired portfolios have pretty much run off, and you're going to see really the straight performance of the CPS portfolio going forward.
In looking at a couple of other important metrics, the net interest margin for the quarter was 36.5 million. That compares -- to favorably to 34 million for the previous quarter and 25.8 million for the year-ago quarter. The last 12 months was 130.9 million versus 120 million from the 12 months from the previous quarter and versus 84.9 million from a year ago 12 months, so again, significant improvement.
The risk adjusted margin for the quarter was 17.4 million versus 18.4 million on the previous quarter and 13.5 million on the year ago quarter. The core operating expense, which is something that everybody kind of focuses on including ourselves for the quarter was 19.1 million compared to 21.6 million on the previous quarter and 19.4 million on the year-ago quarter.
As a percentage, that number now stands at 6.5% for the quarter versus 7.9% for the previous quarter and 8.5 for the year ago quarter. This -- in terms of probably it's easier and more significant or it's just easier to look at the percentage. We've been trending down on that percentage year-over-year and quarter-to-quarter very nicely now for almost seven or eight quarters. It began a couple of years ago as high as 12 or 13 when we maintained our infrastructure through the problem times knowing that at some point we'd get the growth and be able to really capitalize on that infrastructure, which in fact what we've been able to do over the last couple of quarters, reducing that number all the way down at 6.5 today.
Having said that, it's still not where we want it to be. But, AmeriCredit's comparison runs in the 3 to 3.5% that would be a target for us and one we think we'll get through overtime. But, again, having that infrastructure in place is probably one of the many reasons or one of the significant reasons we've been able to have such really good quality performance on the portfolio.
So overall, in -- the numbers for the quarter were good in almost all aspects of the company. We're very pleased with those results. And think going forward we should be able to maintain those kind of numbers, if not get them better. Certainly, the goal is always to improve there. And to the industry -- the industry really hasn't changed since the last conference call of quarter-to-quarter. Nothing really has happened within the people, who are participating in the industry, as we've, sort of, said in the past. They've had a shake out in the consolidation in the last six to 12 months.
Really, what you have is a real strong solid player today. Everyone is doing it. There's plenty of business for everyone. We still run into dealers all the time that say we're really just starting to look at doing sub prime, which is certainly amazing to us since sub prime's been around for 14 or 15 years but lots of dealers are still just looking at it. Given today's environment that car sales are soft, and that's probably a significant element to the industry outlook today.
What you really see is that since sales are soft and that's really new car sales -- as everybody knows, the Detroit companies have had a bunch of problems -- and so the sales are off but what it's doing, which could have an interesting effect for us and others. it it's causing those dealerships to look for ways to make money for the dealership, whereas before they could sell lots of new cars.
Today, with new cars sales softening or down they're looking for other ways to make money, and sub prime auto finance is one of those ways and a very significant way. In case people don't know, the earnings, or the profit on new car sales to the dealer is certainly less than $1,000 per car and probably in the neighborhood or between $500 and $700 per car sold. The profit on a used car financed or a sub prime car is somewhere in excess of $2,000 to $3,000.
So lots of car dealers who in the past said I don't want to do sub prime, I don't want that "element" of people in my dealership or I don't understand it, or I don't want to do it, many of those dealerships are beginning to look at it as a very viable and important way as a profit center for the dealership, and that of course should over time increase the amount of business we see. So as much as car sales are down, we would certainly like the economy to be booming and cars sales to be booming, there are some interesting areas that could have good effects in us going forward.
But overall, I think in looking at the industry, the strong auction prices are a huge effect on the performance of the paper. We haven't seen any deterioration based on consumer debt. We still feel that the autos versus credit cards or mortgages is in a much more protected space. And certainly the performance of our portfolio lends accretive to that. All the problems that might have been associated with Katrina or now through the system. We had very little impact from the Katrina or the Rita hurricanes.
So overall, the company is running very well. We don't really see any problems on the horizon. We do see this is a market that's strong and one we could have a real potential to continue to grow in.
With that, we'll open it up for questions.
Operator
Thank you. [OPERATOR INSTRUCTIONS] Your first question is coming from Jed Gore of Sunova Capital.
Jed Gore - Analyst
Hey, Brad, Thanks for taking my question. I missed your commentary around the net interest margin, I was wondering if you could go over that again?
Charles Bradley - President and CEO
Sure. Net interest margin for the quarter was 36.5 versus 34 in the previous quarter, 25.8 on a year ago quarter. The risk adjusted which is the NIM minus loss provision was 17.4 versus 18.4 the previous quarter and 13.5 the year ago quarter. That leave you with a core operating expense, which excludes interest loss provision, and any impairment, at 19.1 versus 21.6 the previous quarter and 19.4 the year ago quarter.
Jed Gore - Analyst
Okay. I'm sorry, then the link net interest margin not the aroma but the actual net interest margin, you said it was 36.5 and the quarter ago was what?
Charles Bradley - President and CEO
34.
Jed Gore - Analyst
34. So your margin actually went up on a linked basis?
Charles Bradley - President and CEO
It did.
Jed Gore - Analyst
How is that possible, given the increase in your funding costs?
Charles Bradley - President and CEO
Well as much as end of funding costs are increasing, you really don't see that as much because our overall margin can increase with a discount just as easily. So as much as we are at least sensitive to interest rate increases, the portfolios somewhat moves around depending on what we're buying. A lot of it is absorbed within that number.
Jed Gore - Analyst
Okay. Interesting at any outlook on -- so you think this number will be pretty much stable through the next couple of quarters?
Charles Bradley - President and CEO
It should be. Well, the other thing to note is that we also paid off some debt, which had an effect on that number as well.
Jed Gore - Analyst
Okay. Fair enough. And where are your OC levels now and what's your outlook with regard to the amount of capital that you're putting in to deals?
Charles Bradley - President and CEO
We actually think again flow of the overall coupon and discount change slightly quarter-to-quarter and along with interest rate increases, we sort of have an ongoing talk with the rating agencies on a regular basis as to where that number should be. We probably or we certainly think it should come down a little bit. It has come down in the past it's been relatively flat over the last couple of quarters. So we would probably expect that number to either stay flat, hopefully come down, but probably not go up.
Jed Gore - Analyst
And where you are at 17%?
Charles Bradley - President and CEO
Right now we're an initial 15 growing to 20.
Jed Gore - Analyst
Thank you very much.
Charles Bradley - President and CEO
Thank you for your questions.
Jed Gore - Analyst
Yes.
Operator
[OPERATOR INSTRUCTIONS] Your next question is coming from Casey Ambrecht of Millennium.
Casey Ambrecht - Analyst
Hi, Brad. Thank you very much for taking my question.
Charles Bradley - President and CEO
Hi. How are you?
Casey Ambrecht - Analyst
Good. Solid quarter, solid quarter. So just a couple of question kind of as you look forward and you're running your business, what do you think -- where do you think the portfolio can be in a year or two?
Charles Bradley - President and CEO
Really again it depends a lot on what we can do in terms of originations. Originations are a little bit softer this month. Depending on how the summer goes and things like that, the target is 2 billion within the next 18 months. It could go six months either side of that.
Casey Ambrecht - Analyst
Okay.
Charles Bradley - President and CEO
I think if we could really increase originations and hold onto it for the next year, you could get there soon. I think the target, as I think we said in past is still about 18 months away. And we are getting there in a nice way. It's a little up in the air as to what happens. The originations in the first quarter were very large. They've softened a little bit in April. If they soften more and then it will slow it down, and if they come back a little bit then we should on that same pace still.
Casey Ambrecht - Analyst
Okay. What's driving, is that just some seasonality or --?
Charles Bradley - President and CEO
Well it is always seasonality in the sort of February, March and April period. It's a little hard to call today like I said the think that will be interesting and really could change how fast it moves is what happens at the dealership level with in need to increase their profits given that new-car sales are somewhat soft.
As that part of the industry or business really starts to boom, it would have a direct and really positive effect on how fast it could grow, and that could happen all summer at a time when it would normally be slow. But we'll sort of have to see. It's a little too early. We'd have a much better idea probably in the next call.
Casey Ambrecht - Analyst
Okay. And then the next question kind of gets into the operating leverage. We look at CPSS as a year or two behind AmeriCredit's transformation and - AmeriCredit's ROA, managed ROA is really kind of bottomed out couple of years ago and has come roaring back. And right now in the most recent quarter they put down a 3% ROMA, return on managed assets - a little bit about just under 3% so -- I mean is that possible to think in a year or two to kind of get your ROA up from 0.5 today to say over 2%?
Charles Bradley - President and CEO
It will probably take longer than that. It is flattering as we compare to America, since they're give or take 10 times bigger than we are. Yes, the nice part is for whatever reason our model is very, very similar to theirs. They happen to use a lot of the same system as we do. We do lot of things. The only fundamental difference other than the huge difference in size and capital raising abilities is that they use a brand system and we use reps.
But having said that our track and their track could be very similar. We do -- what we think they do everything right. So we certainly like what they do. The 3% of that 2.7 number that they use it's still you have to have a very large portfolio to do that. One there's -- probably two ways to look at it. One it's going to take us some time do to really with a $2 billion or $3 billion portfolio, you're going to start getting toward that number. But it's going to take us probably at least two years to get to those sort of numbers.
Casey Ambrecht - Analyst
Okay.
Charles Bradley - President and CEO
The better way listing on the sort of the short-term for us to look at it is to look at the core operating expense number. As we continue to grow, that number comes down very significantly, it's come down nearly a point per quarter and that all comes straight to the bottom line, and again, we still sit here with a big enough infrastructure that we can add the growth we're adding without any problem whatsoever and really without adding much in the way of other costs.
And so that number is going to be the real easy way to watch where we go. As that number gets down to 3%, then you're going to be able to see, you'll start looking at it the other way. Because when that number levels off, then you can start looking at the return on assets as a driver.
Casey Ambrecht - Analyst
Okay. That leads to my next thing. Just back of the envelope, say you use $2 billion portfolio, call it 2% ROA, which is being conservative I think from the comments. Couple of years your tax effect at year-over-year -- $26 to $30 million after tax on 21 -- 22 million share outstanding. It kind of translates to over $1 a share in earnings.
Charles Bradley - President and CEO
The next couple of years could be good, but we're not really going to try to forecast those numbers today.
Casey Ambrecht - Analyst
There's a lot of moving parts in next years, but just 8 times earnings potential today seems interesting. Thanks Charles.
Charles Bradley - President and CEO
Thank you very much Casey.
Operator
Thank you your next question is coming from [Jim Eng] of Millennium Partners.
Jim Maga - Analyst
Hi Brad. Good afternoon. It's actually Jim Maga. Can you hear me?
Charles Bradley - President and CEO
Sure, I said hi, how are you?
Jim Maga - Analyst
Good. I wanted to ask you about the recovery rate progression quarter-to-quarter and then year-over-year. How are the recovery rates?
Charles Bradley - President and CEO
Probably the easy way to look at it as a couple of years ago they were down mid-to-high 20% and now they're up to 50. So that trend probably is the highest it's been may be in 10 years. And so we always knew they'd bounce off the floor of sort of low-to-mid-20s, but we thought the forties was a nice number. The fact that it's getting that high is a really, a very significant improvement.
Last quarter was 43, this quarter it's 45, but some of it, we're getting in the 50s. So it's really -- we would expect probably it won't -- we would think it should have peaked, but who knows?
Jim Maga - Analyst
Right.
Charles Bradley - President and CEO
It's still good as we can hope, and it's certainly a very significant part to the performance. And so having it there is nice, we haven't counted on it, but if it continues, it would produce even better results that we'd have expected.
Jim Maga - Analyst
Right. And then what were they last year same quarter?
Charles Bradley - President and CEO
Probably high 30s or lows 40s.
Jim Maga - Analyst
Okay. So improvement year-over-year and quarter-to-quarter.
Charles Bradley - President and CEO
Right.
Jim Maga - Analyst
Good.
Charles Bradley - President and CEO
Absolutely.
Jim Maga - Analyst
And then did you guys -- do you have your deferral percentages over the same two periods as well?
Charles Bradley - President and CEO
Deferral of extensions?
Jim Maga - Analyst
Yes.
Charles Bradley - President and CEO
Let's see. For that period?
Jim Maga - Analyst
First quarter and then for last quarter and then the last year?
Charles Bradley - President and CEO
Right. Our target extension is 1%. And for whatever reason we don't really use a lot of extensions. That number rather than say trending year-to-year, really just stays constant. In some companies it's a very big time collection tool, with us -- we don't use as much as we might. We probably, I guess, the easy answer is wen don't need it. But it is runs right around 1%. Fourth quarter, it was a little bit higher because of seasonality. We got up to almost 1.4%, but really it stays the same a lot.
Jim Maga - Analyst
Okay. Good. I also wanted to ask you if you could just maybe expound a little bit on originations, your comments a minute ago about originations being a little softer this month. Is that seasonal or is there something else taking root?
Charles Bradley - President and CEO
Well probably the biggest driver is the short month. March is a long month, April is a short month. So it's probably down slightly but not significant. Really, we'll know over the next two months what it's going to do. I mean we're looking at -- We did 100 million in March. If you took out the seasonality of the days, we're probably right around say 90. That's about what you would expect. It'll be interesting to see what happens next month and the month after.
Jim Maga - Analyst
Great.
Charles Bradley - President and CEO
There's kind of a funny thing about the calendar this year. The first quarter is very short, and the next three are longer.
Jim Maga - Analyst
Right.
Charles Bradley - President and CEO
But that does not sound like a lot, but a day is almost $0.5 million in revenue for a given month. So an extra day here and there is very significant. It also is significant in terms of originations because an originations day is almost $4 million.
Jim Maga - Analyst
Good. And then lastly on the debt pay down this quarter. Is that part of the plan, at least tactically to keep paying down debt? Maybe you could just give us an update on funding.
Charles Bradley - President and CEO
In terms of debt, [Rob] we are still with now is we just have the $40 million of senior debt that is out there. We paid down 14 million on the risers. That was due, so we paid it. So that really in terms of going forward, what we'll do is refinance the 40 probably this quarter if not early next -- it will be easily financed probably this quarter.
Jim Maga - Analyst
Right.
Charles Bradley - President and CEO
That's currently all we are looking at.
Jim Maga - Analyst
What would the -- even though it's early to call it, what would the savings be on that 40 mill.
Charles Bradley - President and CEO
Depends on what we do. I mean we may actually go out and raise a little more capital depending on the market conditions.
Jim Maga - Analyst
Right.
Charles Bradley - President and CEO
Right now, the capital margins appear to be quite strong. So if we can go out and take advantage of that, we probably will. So I don't know if it will be savings per se.
Jim Maga - Analyst
Great. Nice quarter, guys.
Charles Bradley - President and CEO
All right. Thanks a lot for the call, for the questions.
Operator
Thank you. Your next question is a follow-up coming from Jed Gore from Sunova Capital.
Jed Gore - Analyst
Jed Gore, Sunova Capital. Sorry, Brad, just a quick follow-up. Did you build your reserve in the portfolio? I calculates 7.5% versus 5.9 in the previous quarter?
Charles Bradley - President and CEO
That was 5.7 in the previous quarter. Sorry, 5.7 this --
Jed Gore - Analyst
Okay and 7.5 for this one?
Charles Bradley - President and CEO
I'm sorry. I might have mixed up your numbers. It was 5.7 at the end of this quarter.
Jed Gore - Analyst
Okay.
Charles Bradley - President and CEO
And then 5.9, the quarter before.
Jed Gore - Analyst
Okay. So reserves came in a little bit.
Charles Bradley - President and CEO
Right.
Jed Gore - Analyst
Then how do you reserve for your growth? Are you looking out, are you one year or one and a half year?
Charles Bradley - President and CEO
We're a one-year.
Jed Gore - Analyst
Okay.
Charles Bradley - President and CEO
What we do, as you probably know, is we take one year upfront and then go along the path over the next couple of years to get to the full reserve.
Jed Gore - Analyst
Okay.
Charles Bradley - President and CEO
Probably the interesting part for that is our upfront reserve is fine. Our targeted reserve or our targeted loss, we used to think was on the button, we might actually be conservative on it. We'll have to see. If the performance continues that could be an interesting thing to look at down the road.
Jed Gore - Analyst
Thank you.
Charles Bradley - President and CEO
Thank you very much.
Jed Gore - Analyst
Yes.
Operator
Thank you. Your next question is coming from Scott Valentin at FBR.
Scott Valentin - Analyst
Thanks for taking my question. Any concern we're seeing the fuel prices move up again? Late in the fourth quarter we saw barge vehicle values come down as used car values dropped for low mileage vehicles. Are you seeing any signs of that yet? And secondly, on the origination growth, are you shifting your originations at all for -- in terms of credit quality moving up or down in [FICO] range?
Charles Bradley - President and CEO
Okay. First question, yes the credit performance has been great. So we really haven't seen anything. Our sort of take on the gas prices -- our customer has to have that car to drive. I think it's certainly, probably, we would expect the sale of big cars and SUVs to drop. I do not know that that would particularly affect us because our folks still need to get a car one way or another. So we're probably I think -- well it goes back to two things.
One we think that our guys have to have cars to drive. And they're going to buy one, regardless, Secondarily, we don't lend in the metropolitan areas with good transit systems because the one thing you might see given really high gas prices is a lot more people are going to start taking the bus or taking the train. But we do not lend in any of those metropolitan areas or at least we try to stay out of those.
So I think if you were going to kind of try and ballpark what might happen certainly in the areas big metropolitan areas, like New York or wherever Chicago people didn't take trends and worst case scenario start walking away from their cars. But we what you probably would see is they still drive their cars to the grocery store, but not to work, if that in fact is possible. Most of were national, so we are in many different cities trend is not going to be that big a deal - take LA for example. They tried real hard at mass transit in LA but it's really not all that successful and everybody drives. So we still think, we wouldn't have a problem with getting our loans paid in the cars.
People may to the extent can try to use mass transit more. People will still buy cars because they have to have one to get to work for the most of to extent they can use mass transit that's helpful to them. So I guess that's our feeling on the gas prices going up.
Scott Valentin - Analyst
Any shift at all on origination growth, any shift in terms of moving up or down as in the credit spectrum?
Charles Bradley - President and CEO
At the moment, it's relatively constant -- we haven't really shifted at all. I think -- we think it works both sides, we think there is opportunity for us to probably lend more to high end, or the better credit end and there is probably significant room at the bottom as well. We haven't really done either one yet. We may start looking at a combination of both. For the moment, we're just kind of -- we have enough business coming in the way it is so we're probably just handling that.
Scott Valentin - Analyst
Okay. Just for reference what would you consider the high end terms or low end in terms of FICO score if you had kind of a benchmark or reference?
Charles Bradley - President and CEO
Our FICO score average is so low that anything approaching 565 or 570 would be the high end for us. I mean, we can go after that business easily without really tackling anything. Remember our average FICO score is around 520.
Scott Valentin - Analyst
Thank you.
Charles Bradley - President and CEO
Thank you very much for your questions.
Operator
[OPERATOR INSTRUCTIONS] Your next question is coming from [Ken Liddy] of Wachovia Securities
Ken Liddy - Analyst
Hi, congratulations on your excellent quarter.
Charles Bradley - President and CEO
Thank you.
Ken Liddy - Analyst
Could you give us any type of guidance as far as annual basis as far as revenues?
Charles Bradley - President and CEO
As far as revenues we will -- I, I think the safe answer is we're going to expect revenues to trend about the way they are trending in '05 really great answer but it's probably the smart answer. Yes we think the revenue are going to trend with the origination, the originations continue to grow it's funny, we actually it's almost the opposite. If originations grow the revenues lack a little but you are going to see improved revenues as the portfolio gets larger and larger. We think given the way things are going the revenues will continue about -- you could almost take the last few quarters and project it out that way. But I'm not saying that will happen, but that's about what we would be looking at.
Ken Liddy - Analyst
Okay. And as far as trying to get some analyst coverage have you had any additional success?
Charles Bradley - President and CEO
We're certainly talking to a lot of people, and we continue to get the story out as much as we can. So we would hope that we pick up some more over time.
Ken Liddy - Analyst
Do you feel that the float issue of the stock is the -- the issue that keeps the -- keeps you from getting coverage?
Charles Bradley - President and CEO
No. I think it is a couple of things. I think the float's improved somewhat if you look at the average trading volume is almost, it's kind of almost doubled in the last say year.
Ken Liddy - Analyst
Yes.
Charles Bradley - President and CEO
I think what you really need is -- we are trying to put together what we think it's a fairly compelling story for stocks appreciation. And I think a lot of our, you know, like a lot of analysts say, okay I don't want get involved in a situation that's only just getting this. I think a lot of people want to see as put those four quarters profit together like we've done. They want to see stability in what we are doing. And I think, I think you want to see if you are an analyst, you want to see some good earnings history.
You want to see some credit stability. You want to see an overall strength in the marketplace. And we've now demonstrated that rather well for the last year 1.5 years. So I think now is the time and certainly what we are talking to a lot more people today than we were a year ago. So it's just a matte of getting to a point where they feel comfortable enough, and I think certainly -- other. They safe the answer the easy answer that we continue before we are doing -- the way we are doing it, we will pick up more analysts. We are eagerly trying to find some more and we'll see what we do. But, things continue they should show up.
Ken Liddy - Analyst
Okay. Congratulations.
Charles Bradley - President and CEO
Thank you very much.
Ken Liddy - Analyst
Thanks.
Operator
Thank you. At this time, there appear to be no further questions. I'd like to turn the call back over to Charles Bradley, for any further comments.
Charles Bradley - President and CEO
Again, I just want to thank you all for attend the call. And thank you for the questions, certainly with the questions and what we try and put out, I think gives a good story of where the company sits today. We did have a nice quarter. The first quarter is always a good quarter. The second quarter, we look forward to doing just as well.
The important thing is and I said it a few comment and I'll say one last time is everything we've been working on for the last couple of years in terms of the systems, the infrastructure and the organization have really come home probably we better than we could have expected. So we're in a nice place the way everything's running and we are looking for a really positive future. And thanks for your patience with us, and staying with us this time. And we look forward to talking to you again next quarter.
Operator
Thank you. This does conclude today's teleconference. A replay will be available beginning an hour from now, until Friday May 5, by dialing 877-519-4471 or 973-341-3080 with pin number 7304946. A broadcast of the conference call will also be available live and for 30 days after the call via the company's website at www.consumerportfolio.com, and at www.streetevents.com. Please disconnect your lines at this time, and have a wonderful day.