金寶湯 (CPB) 2023 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Greetings, ladies and gentlemen, and welcome to the Campbell Soup Company Fourth Quarter Fiscal 2023 Earnings Conference Call.

女士們、先生們，大家好，歡迎參加金寶湯公司 2023 財年第四季度收益電話會議。

(Operator Instructions)

（操作員說明）

After today's presentation, there will be an opportunity to ask questions.

今天的演講結束後，將有機會提問。

(Operator Instructions)

（操作員說明）

As a reminder, this conference call is being recorded. It's now my pleasure to introduce your host, Rebecca Gardy, Chief Investor Relations Officer. Please go ahead.

謹此提醒，本次電話會議正在錄音中。現在我很高興向您介紹主持人，首席投資者關係官麗貝卡·加迪 (Rebecca Gardy)。請繼續。

Good morning, and welcome to Campbell's Fourth Quarter Fiscal 2023 Earnings Conference Call. I'm Rebecca Gardy, Chief Investor Relations Officer at Campbell. Joining me today are Mark Clouse, President and Chief Executive Officer; and Carrie Anderson, Chief Financial Officer.

早上好，歡迎參加金寶湯 2023 財年第四季度收益電話會議。我是麗貝卡·加迪 (Rebecca Gardy)，金寶湯首席投資者關係官。今天加入我的是總裁兼首席執行官馬克·克勞斯 (Mark Clouse)；凱莉·安德森（Carrie Anderson），首席財務官。

Today's remarks have been prerecorded. Once we conclude the prepared remarks, we will transition to a live webcast Q&A session. For us to give as many participants as possible the opportunity to ask questions, we ask that you limit yourself to 2 questions. The slide deck and today's earnings press release have been posted to the Investor Relations section on our website, campbellsoupcompany.com. Following the conclusion of the Q&A session, a replay of the webcast will be available at the same location followed by a transcript of the call within 24 hours.

今天的發言已預先錄製。一旦我們完成準備好的發言，我們將過渡到現場網絡直播問答環節。為了給盡可能多的參與者提供提問的機會，我們要求您將自己的問題限制在 2 個以內。幻燈片和今天的收益新聞稿已發佈到我們網站 Campbellsoupcompany.com 的投資者關係部分。問答環節結束後，將在同一地點重播網絡廣播，並在 24 小時內提供通話記錄。

On our call today, we will make forward-looking statements, which reflect our current expectations. These statements rely on assumptions and estimates, which could be inaccurate and are subject to risk. Please refer to Slide 3 of our presentation or our SEC filings for a list of factors that could cause our actual results to vary materially from those anticipated in the forward-looking statements.

在今天的電話會議上，我們將做出前瞻性聲明，反映我們當前的預期。這些陳述依賴於假設和估計，可能不准確且存在風險。請參閱我們演示文稿的幻燈片 3 或我們向 SEC 提交的文件，了解可能導致我們的實際結果與前瞻性聲明中的預期產生重大差異的因素列表。

Because we use non-GAAP measures, we have provided a reconciliation of each of these measures to the most directly comparable GAAP measure in the appendix of our presentation.

由於我們使用非 GAAP 衡量標準，因此我們在演示文稿的附錄中提供了每項衡量標準與最直接可比的 GAAP 衡量標準的調節表。

On Slide 4, you will see today's agenda. Mark will share his overall thoughts on our fourth quarter and full year performance as well as in-market performance by division. Carrie will then discuss the financial results of the quarter in more detail and review our guidance for the full fiscal year 2024.

在幻燈片 4 上，您將看到今天的議程。馬克將分享他對我們第四季度和全年業績以及按部門的市場表現的總體看法。隨後，Carrie 將更詳細地討論本季度的財務業績，並回顧我們對 2024 年整個財年的指導。

And with that, I'm pleased to turn the call over to Mark.

至此，我很高興將電話轉給馬克。

Thanks, Rebecca. Good morning, everyone, and thank you for joining our fourth quarter fiscal 2023 earnings call. Speaking on behalf of Campbell's management, I would like to extend our recognition of the dedication and hard work demonstrated by our teams throughout this year.

謝謝，麗貝卡。大家早上好，感謝您參加我們的 2023 財年第四季度財報電話會議。我謹代表金寶湯管理層對我們團隊今年所表現出的奉獻精神和辛勤工作表示認可。

We delivered the fourth quarter consistent with our expectations. And for the full year, we delivered strong growth across all 3 key financial metrics, coming in well ahead of our initial expectations and advancing many of our strategic initiatives. Collectively, we continue to solidify the foundation that has delivered consistent and dependable results over the past several years.

我們第四季度的業績符合我們的預期。全年，我們在所有 3 個關鍵財務指標上實現了強勁增長，遠遠超出了我們最初的預期，並推進了我們的許多戰略舉措。總的來說，我們繼續鞏固在過去幾年中取得一致和可靠結果的基礎。

Furthermore, our progress has set the stage for increased momentum in fiscal 2024 that we believe will result in broad-based growth and deliver compelling shareholder value creation. Let me begin with the highlights of the fourth quarter.

此外，我們的進展為 2024 財年的增長勢頭奠定了基礎，我們相信這將帶來廣泛的增長並創造引人注目的股東價值。首先讓我談談第四季度的亮點。

As expected, we delivered 5% organic net sales growth, led by inflation-driven net price realization and solid in-market performance enabled by an advantaged supply chain and effective marketing and selling investments. Fourth quarter consumption increased 3% versus the prior year and 25% versus 4 years ago. As expected, we did experience declines in adjusted EBIT and adjusted EPS in the quarter given our planned brand investments and the pension headwind, which we pointed out on prior earnings calls.

正如預期的那樣，我們實現了 5% 的有機淨銷售額增長，這得益於通脹驅動的淨價格實現以及優勢供應鍊和有效營銷和銷售投資帶來的穩固市場表現。第四季度消費量較去年同期增長 3%，較 4 年前增長 25%。正如預期的那樣，考慮到我們計劃的品牌投資和養老金逆風，我們在本季度的調整後息稅前利潤和調整後每股收益確實有所下降，我們在之前的財報電話會議上指出了這一點。

For the full year, we delivered double-digit organic net sales growth of 10% and strong adjusted EBIT growth of 5%. Adjusted EPS of $3, representing 5% growth versus prior year, was at the top end of our guidance range. As a reminder, the pension headwind was approximately $0.11 to adjusted EPS and 4 points of growth for the year. Consumption for the full year increased 8% versus the prior year and reflected share growth across many brands. These strong results reflect the ongoing effective execution of our focused strategy along with the sustained consumer demand for our brands. We have strategically balanced the interplay between pricing and promotional frequency while enhancing the tremendous equity and differentiation of our brands.

全年，我們實現了 10% 的兩位數有機淨銷售額增長和 5% 的調整後息稅前利潤強勁增長。調整後每股收益為 3 美元，較上年增長 5%，處於我們指導範圍的上限。提醒一下，養老金的逆風對調整後每股收益約為 0.11 美元，全年增長 4 個百分點。全年消費量較上年增長 8%，反映出許多品牌的份額增長。這些強勁的業績反映了我們重點戰略的持續有效執行以及消費者對我們品牌的持續需求。我們戰略性地平衡了定價和促銷頻率之間的相互作用，同時增強了我們品牌的巨大資產和差異化。

We also continued to invest in expanding capacity for the future and enhance our capabilities in supply chain, marketing, sales and innovation. Looking ahead to fiscal 2024, we're excited about the next stage of Campbell's growth. The snacks business will continue to deliver on the value proposition of the Snyder's-Lance acquisition with top line and margin building momentum.

我們還繼續投資擴大未來產能，增強我們在供應鏈、營銷、銷售和創新方面的能力。展望 2024 財年，我們對金寶湯下一階段的增長感到興奮。零食業務將繼續實現收購 Snyder's-Lance 的價值主張，並實現營收和利潤增長勢頭。

Our Meals & Beverage business will be further strengthened and diversified with the planned strategic acquisition of Sovos Brands, which will extend our portfolio into the ultra distinctive sauces segment and provides significant growth opportunities. This combination will make Campbell as one of the most dependable growth-oriented names in food. Carrie will provide full fiscal 2024 guidance later in the call.

通過計劃對 Sovos Brands 的戰略收購，我們的餐飲業務將得到進一步加強和多元化，這將把我們的產品組合擴展到超獨特的醬料領域，並提供重大的增長機會。這一組合將使金寶湯成為食品領域最可靠的增長型品牌之一。 Carrie 將在稍後的電話會議中提供完整的 2024 財年指導。

Before I review the division results, I'd like to provide some perspective on the current consumer landscape. We've spent a great deal of time analyzing the drivers and importantly, the potential implications going forward. We see 3 factors currently putting some transitory pressure on category in market results. These are primarily impacting our Meals & Beverage businesses and all influenced Q4 to some extent.

在回顧部門結果之前，我想提供一些對當前消費者格局的看法。我們花費了大量時間來分析驅動因素，更重要的是分析未來的潛在影響。我們認為目前有 3 個因素對市場結果中的品類造成了一些暫時的壓力。這些主要影響我們的餐飲業務，並在一定程度上影響了第四季度。

The first area is the residual effects of COVID surges from the summer of fiscal 2022. These surges notably benefited categories like soup in the prior year, particularly during the summer, a period which historically has lower sales. We expect this effect to continue into Q1 and greatly diminish as we approach the second quarter of fiscal 2024.

第一個領域是 2022 財年夏季以來新冠疫情激增的殘餘影響。這些激增對上一年的湯等品類尤其有利，尤其是在夏季，而這個時期歷來銷量較低。我們預計這種影響將持續到第一季度，並隨著 2024 財年第二季度的臨近而大幅減弱。

Directionally, the impact of this factor contributed about 50% of the decline in soup in the fourth quarter. This dynamic likely helped mitigate price-driven elasticities in Q4 fiscal of 2022.

從方向上看，這一因素的影響貢獻了四季度湯品跌幅的50%左右。這種動態可能有助於減輕 2022 年第四季度價格驅動的彈性。

The next factor is lapping of double-digit pricing actions from a year ago. This was a dynamic we expected and one that likely will continue to be a headwind throughout fiscal 2024, but sequentially lessening in the second half of the year. We do also expect sequential volume improvement to mitigate this pricing headwind as we move into Q2 in the second half.

下一個因素是去年兩位數定價行為的結束。這是我們預期的一種動態，並且可能會在整個 2024 財年繼續成為不利因素，但在下半年會逐漸減弱。我們還預計，隨著下半年進入第二季度，銷量的連續增長將緩解這種定價阻力。

The third factor and likely contributing to the limited volume recovery to date is the consumer behavior in response to ongoing economic uncertainty and prolonged inflation. First, consumers began prioritizing categories based on more immediate needs and value leading to fewer categories in the shopper basket. This pattern of behavior resulted in a real focus on seasonal priorities and has obviously created a headwind on categories like soup in the summer. We expect our categories like soup, which is a top 10 category in the fall and winter, to increase in priority, and we're already seeing some early signs of improvement.

第三個因素可能是迄今為止導致銷量恢復有限的因素，即消費者針對持續的經濟不確定性和長期通脹的行為。首先，消費者開始根據更直接的需求和價值來優先考慮類別，導致購物籃中的類別減少。這種行為模式導致人們真正關注季節性優先事項，並且顯然對夏季湯等品類產生了不利影響。我們預計像湯這樣的秋季和冬季十大品類的優先級會增加，而且我們已經看到了一些改善的早期跡象。

The second behavior is a growing shift to more value-driven stretchable meals, which has had a mixed effect on our business. It has undoubtedly been a positive driver on categories like pasta sauce and condensed cooking soups, as well as broth, while also adding pressure on categories like ready-to-eat soup. We expect this behavior to subside as inflation continues to moderate.

第二種行為是越來越多地轉向價值驅動的可拉伸膳食，這對我們的業務產生了複雜的影響。毫無疑問，這對意大利麵醬、濃縮烹飪湯以及肉湯等品類起到了積極的推動作用，同時也給即食湯等品類帶來了壓力。我們預計，隨著通脹繼續放緩，這種行為將會消退。

The positive news as it pertains to our Snacks division is that our brands consistently maintain a strong presence in consumers' top categories throughout all seasons of the year. Moreover, our snack power brands have displayed remarkable resilience as consumers, even while prioritizing value, continue to sustain their purchases across our differentiated portfolio.

對於我們的零食部門來說，好消息是我們的品牌在一年中的各個季節始終在消費者的頂級品類中保持著強大的影響力。此外，我們的零食品牌表現出了非凡的韌性，因為消費者在優先考慮價值的同時，仍繼續維持對我們差異化產品組合的購買。

Broadly speaking, we see these dynamics as transitional in nature. While we do anticipate the persistence of these dynamics in the near term, we're confident in the equity and the value of our brands within this environment. In fiscal 2024, we'll maintain our support of our brands and remain vigilant on value to ensure we remain competitive, but do not see this as a catalyst for dramatic shifts in promotional or margin dilutive actions to chase volume or share.

從廣義上講，我們認為這些動態本質上是過渡性的。雖然我們確實預計這些動態在短期內會持續存在，但我們對我們品牌在這種環境下的權益和價值充滿信心。在2024 財年，我們將繼續支持我們的品牌，並對價值保持警惕，以確保我們保持競爭力，但並不認為這會成為為了追逐銷量或份額而進行促銷或利潤稀釋行動發生巨大轉變的催化劑。

Turning to our division results. Our Meals & Beverages portfolio remains well positioned as consumers employ multiple strategies to stretch their food dollars. In the fourth quarter, we delivered organic net sales growth of 1%. As a reminder, the fourth quarter is the lightest in terms of seasonality for this business, and we're also wrapping strong performance of 7% organic net sales growth in the prior year, primarily driven by inflation-driven pricing and some of the COVID surges I mentioned earlier.

轉向我們的分區結果。我們的餐飲產品組合仍然處於有利地位，因為消費者採用多種策略來節省食品開支。第四季度，我們實現了 1% 的有機淨銷售額增長。提醒一下，就該業務而言，第四季度是季節性最輕的季度，而且我們還實現了上一年有機淨銷售額增長7% 的強勁表現，這主要是由通脹驅動的定價和一些新冠疫情推動的我之前提到的浪湧。

While end market consumption was down in the fourth quarter by 4%, we saw strong performance by Prego, up 5%; and Pace, up 7%; and Pacific, up 11%. Compared to pre-COVID levels, dollar consumption for the division was up 17% overall.

儘管第四季度終端市場消費下降了 4%，但我們看到 Prego 表現強勁，增長了 5%；佩斯 (Pace) 上漲 7%；太平洋航空​​上漲 11%。與新冠疫情爆發前的水平相比，該部門的美元消耗總體增長了 17%。

Diving more specifically into our Meals & Beverages portfolio, I wanted to highlight the progress we've made within several areas of our soup business. This year, we've refined our soup portfolio to establish distinct areas for growth and identified areas where scale and optimization will be more of the focus. The great news is our growth focus segments represent over 2/3 of our U.S. soup business and has consistently delivered strong growth and share results even where private label is present.

更具體地深入我們的餐食和飲料產品組合，我想強調我們在湯品業務的幾個領域所取得的進展。今年，我們完善了我們的湯產品組合，以建立獨特的增長領域，並確定了規模和優化將更加受到關注的領域。好消息是，我們的增長重點細分市場占我們美國湯品業務的 2/3 以上，並且即使存在自有品牌，也始終保持強勁增長並分享成果。

Brands like our condensed icons, our condensed cooking soups, Chunky, Homestyle and Pacific soup are compelling areas of consumer relevance even among younger households and continue to demonstrate long-term growth potential. They are also brands where our marketing and innovation efforts have been very effective.

像我們的濃縮圖標、濃縮烹飪湯、Chunky、Homestyle 和 Pacific soup 這樣的品牌即使在年輕家庭中也是引人注目的消費者相關領域，並繼續展現出長期增長潛力。它們也是我們的營銷和創新努力非常有效的品牌。

In the quarter, our shares in this portion of the business were essentially flat. And versus 4 years ago, we've gained 1.2 share points with consumption up 27%. We're confident in the trajectory of this business and are committed to continuing to fuel these segments going forward.

本季度，我們在這部分業務中的份額基本持平。與 4 年前相比，我們的份額上升了 1.2 個百分點，消費增長了 27%。我們對該業務的發展軌跡充滿信心，並致力於繼續推動這些細分市場的發展。

The optimized portion of our soup portfolio, which represents less than 1/3 of our U.S. soup business, has experienced recent share softness and thus remains an area of opportunity for us. These are areas where the segments are a bit more commoditized or value sensitive, like broth. So they have tended to be where private label or lower cost options have sourced some share. The team remains vigilant in this segment of the portfolio, continuing to ensure we remain competitive without undermining any long-term profitability.

我們的湯品組合中的優化部分占我們美國湯品業務的不到 1/3，最近經歷了股價疲軟，因此對我們來說仍然是一個機會領域。這些領域的細分市場更加商品化或價值敏感，例如肉湯。因此，它們往往是自有品牌或低成本選擇獲得部分份額的地方。該團隊對投資組合的這一部分保持警惕，繼續確保我們保持競爭力而不損害任何長期盈利能力。

Interestingly, this portion of the business represents only 14% of Meals & Beverages and is approximately 7% of Campbell's total net sales and will become even smaller after the pending acquisition of the Sovos Brands business.

有趣的是，這部分業務僅佔餐飲和飲料業務的 14%，約佔金寶湯總淨銷售額的 7%，並且在待收購 Sovos Brands 業務後將變得更小。

Turning to Snacks on Slide 10. We finished the year strong with fourth quarter organic net sales up 9%, driven by our 8 power brands. We maintained strong in-market momentum, growing consumption by 8% and 31% compared to 4 years ago, also driven by the strength of our power brands, which delivered double-digit dollar consumption for the fifth consecutive quarter.

轉向幻燈片 10 上的零食。在 8 個強勢品牌的推動下，我們以強勁的勢頭結束了這一年，第四季度的有機淨銷售額增長了 9%。我們保持強勁的市場勢頭，與 4 年前相比，消費量增長了 8% 和 31%，這也是受到我們實力品牌實力的推動，連續第五個季度實現了兩位數的美元消費量。

Overall, fiscal 2023 was another fantastic year for Snacks, with net sales growing at 13% and operating earnings growth at 24%, these results provide compelling proof that our strategic focus on highly differentiated and relevant brands is working and can lead to sustainable profitable growth.

總體而言，2023 財年對於Snacks 來說又是輝煌的一年，淨銷售額增長13%，營業利潤增長24%，這些結果令人信服地證明，我們對高度差異化和相關品牌的戰略重點正在發揮作用，並且可以帶來可持續的利潤增長。

The next slide highlights the impressive performance and continued growth of our power brands, which grew consumption 10% versus the prior year. On a 4-year basis, consumption was up 39%, with all 8 brands growing double digits in the quarter while holding volume share. This illustrates the strength of our core portfolio and reflects the continuation of heightened consumer demand for snacking.

下一張幻燈片重點介紹了我們實力品牌的令人印象深刻的業績和持續增長，其消費量比上一年增長了 10%。與 4 年相比，消費量增長了 39%，本季度所有 8 個品牌均實現兩位數增長，同時保持銷量份額。這說明了我們核心產品組合的實力，並反映出消費者對零食需求的持續增長。

Turning to Slide 12. Our Snacks business has delivered tremendous growth over the past 2 years. The business has grown net sales at a 7% CAGR with operating earnings growth at a 12% CAGR over a 2-year period. In the last fiscal year, we drove a step change in operating margin, growing from 13.1% in fiscal 2022 to 14.4% in fiscal 2023. This is consistent with our snacks margin road map and gives us increased confidence that we'll continue to deliver on our long-term goals and show steady improvement in fiscal 2024, where we expect to be north of 15%.

轉向幻燈片 12。我們的零食業務在過去兩年中取得了巨大的增長。該業務兩年內淨銷售額複合年增長率為 7%，營業利潤複合年增長率為 12%。在上一財年，我們推動了營業利潤率的逐步變化，從 2022 財年的 13.1% 增長到 2023 財年的 14.4%。這與我們的零食利潤路線圖一致，讓我們更有信心繼續交付我們的長期目標，並在2024 財年顯示出穩步改善，我們預計將超過15%。

I'm excited and very optimistic as we enter the new year with proven strategies and strong fundamentals and advantaged strong supply chain and arguably one of the most focused portfolio stories in the industry. Within Snacks, we continue to expect accelerated growth and to build on the margin trajectory from this year, and in Meals & Beverages, we expect to continue to strengthen the business with sequential and steady improvement throughout the year. This story will only be made stronger following the completion of the Sovos Brands acquisition, adding the most compelling growth story in food to the Campbell's portfolio. It's an exciting combination.

當我們以行之有效的戰略、強勁的基本面、強大的供應鏈優勢以及可以說是業內最受關注的投資組合故事之一進入新的一年時，我感到興奮和非常樂觀。在零食領域，我們繼續預計今年將實現加速增長，並在利潤率軌蹟的基礎上繼續發展；在餐飲領域，我們預計將繼續加強業務，全年持續穩定改善。在完成對 Sovos Brands 的收購後，這個故事只會變得更加強大，為金寶湯的產品組合增添了食品領域最引人注目的增長故事。這是一個令人興奮的組合。

We understand and have planned for some short-term broad-based category dynamics in the early part of the year, especially in Q1. However, we have strong plans in place and are well positioned to gain momentum and deliver another strong year, adding further evidence of the transformation of the Campbell's business. With that, I'll pass it to Carrie, who will review our fourth quarter and full year results and present our fiscal 2024 outlook.

我們了解併計劃在今年年初，特別是在第一季度出現一些短期的、​​廣泛的品類動態。然而，我們已經制定了強有力的計劃，並已做好充分準備來獲得動力並實現又一個強勁的一年，為金寶湯業務轉型提供了進一步的證據。接下來，我將把它交給 Carrie，她將回顧我們第四季度和全年的業績，並介紹我們的 2024 財年展望。

Thanks, Mark, and good morning, everyone. I'll begin with an overview of our fourth quarter results, which came in largely as expected with a mid-single-digit organic net sales increase and an adjusted EBIT performance that reflected planned fourth quarter investments in sales and marketing, especially in our Snacks business and continued headwinds related to a nonoperating item.

謝謝，馬克，大家早上好。我將首先概述我們第四季度的業績，該業績基本符合預期，有機淨銷售額實現中個位數增長，調整後的息稅前利潤表現反映了第四季度計劃在銷售和營銷方面的投資，特別是在我們的零食方面。業務以及與非經營項目相關的持續不利因素。

Fourth quarter organic net sales increased 5% to nearly $2.1 billion, reflecting inflation-driven net price realization, partially offset by some unfavorable volume and mix. Adjusted EBIT of $242 million was a 10% decrease to prior year as higher adjusted gross profit was offset by planned investments in marketing and selling and higher adjusted other expenses related to lower pension and postretirement benefit income.

第四季度有機淨銷售額增長 5%，達到近 21 億美元，反映出通貨膨脹驅動的淨價格實現，但部分被一些不利的銷量和組合所抵消。調整後息稅前利潤為2.42 億美元，較上年下降10%，這是因為調整後毛利潤的增加被營銷和銷售方面的計劃投資以及與養老金和退休後福利收入減少相關的調整後其他費用增加所抵消。

Adjusted EPS decreased 11% to $0.50 driven primarily by lower adjusted EBIT. The impact of lower pension and postretirement benefit income reduced adjusted EBIT margin by 40 basis points and adjusted EPS by $0.02 in the quarter. We are pleased with our overall performance for the full year. Our fiscal year net sales results exceeded our initial guidance expectations provided a year ago, finishing the year with organic net sales growth of 10%, driven by higher net price realization.

調整後每股收益下降 11%，至 0.50 美元，主要是由於調整後息稅前利潤下降。養老金和退休後福利收入下降的影響使本季度調整後的息稅前利潤率降低了 40 個基點，調整後的每股收益降低了 0.02 美元。我們對全年的整體表現感到滿意。我們的財年淨銷售額結果超出了我們一年前提供的初步指導預期，在更高的淨價格實現的推動下，全年淨銷售額有機增長了 10%。

Adjusted EBIT grew 5% and adjusted earnings per share finished at $3, also up 5% and ahead of the top end of our initial expectation range despite a $0.02 greater adjusted EPS impact than originally planned from pension and post retirement income.

調整後息稅前利潤增長5%，調整後每股收益為3 美元，同樣增長5%，超出我們最初預期範圍的上限，儘管養老金和退休後收入對調整後每股收益的影響比原計劃高出0.02 美元。

Overall, for the year, this nonoperating item reduced full year adjusted EBIT by $44 million and adjusted EPS by $0.11.

總體而言，今年該非經營項目使全年調整後息稅前利潤減少了 4400 萬美元，調整後每股收益減少了 0.11 美元。

Slide 17 summarizes the drivers of our fourth quarter net sales growth. Excluding the impact of the sale of the Emerald nuts business, organic net sales grew 5% in the quarter. We generated 10 percentage points of growth from inflation-driven net price realization. Volume and mix declined 5 percentage points across both divisions.

幻燈片 17 總結了第四季度淨銷售額增長的驅動因素。排除出售翡翠堅果業務的影響，本季度有機淨銷售額增長 5%。我們通過通貨膨脹驅動的淨價格實現實現了 10 個百分點的增長。兩個部門的銷量和產品組合均下降了 5 個百分點。

Our fourth quarter adjusted gross profit margin of 30.6% was generally in line with Q3 with the year-over-year change in margin driven primarily by unfavorable volume and mix. As shown in the bridge, net price realization and productivity improvements more than offset cost inflation and other supply chain costs.

我們第四季度的調整後毛利率為 30.6%，與第三季度基本一致，利潤率的同比變化主要是由不利的銷量和組合推動的。如橋樑所示，淨價格實現和生產率提高足以抵消成本通脹和其他供應鏈成本。

Moving to Slide 19. Our teams continue to successfully mitigate inflationary headwinds that averaged 12% for the year. We saw steady moderation as we move through the quarters with Q4 core inflation finishing at 6% compared to a high of 18% in Q1. Fourth quarter's rate reflected improved trends in oils and flour as well as improvement in logistics and transportation.

轉向幻燈片 19。我們的團隊繼續成功緩解今年平均 12% 的通脹阻力。隨著季度的推移，我們發現核心通脹率穩步放緩，第四季度核心通脹率為 6%，而第一季度則高達 18%。第四季度的增長率反映了油和麵粉的改善趨勢以及物流和運輸的改善。

Net pricing averaged 13% for the full year reflecting contributions from 3 waves of pricing aimed at offsetting double-digit inflation. We ended the year with a fourth quarter net pricing contribution of 10%, still benefiting from the impact of pricing waves 3 and 4 with price wave 3 fully wrapped as of July.

全年淨定價平均上漲 13%，反映了旨在抵消兩位數通脹的 3 波定價的貢獻。我們以 10% 的第四季度淨定價貢獻結束了這一年，仍然受益於第三波和第四波定價的影響，其中第三波價格截至 7 月份已完全結束。

In addition to pricing, we continue to deploy a range of other levers to mitigate inflation including supply chain productivity improvements and broader margin-enhancing initiatives, including a focus on discretionary spending across the organization. We are pleased with the progress we have made on our cost savings initiatives.

除了定價之外，我們還繼續部署一系列其他槓桿來緩解通貨膨脹，包括提高供應鏈生產力和更廣泛的利潤提高計劃，包括關注整個組織的可自由支配支出。我們對成本節約計劃所取得的進展感到高興。

Through the fourth quarter, we have achieved $890 million of total savings under our multi-year cost savings program, inclusive of Snyder's-Lance synergies. We remain on track to deliver savings of $1 billion by the end of fiscal 2025.

截至第四季度，我們在多年成本節約計劃中實現了 8.9 億美元的總節約，其中包括 Snyder's-Lance 協同效應。我們仍有望在 2025 財年末節省 10 億美元。

Moving on to other operating items. Adjusted marketing and selling expenses increased 9%, driven by higher advertising and consumer promotion expense, or A&C, which increased 23% compared to the prior year, and higher selling expenses, partially offset by increased benefits from cost savings initiatives.

繼續進行其他操作項目。調整後的營銷和銷售費用增長了9%，這是由於廣告和消費者促銷費用（A&C）增加（與上一年相比增加了23%）以及銷售費用增加，但部分被成本節約舉措帶來的收益增加所抵消。

The increase in A&C this quarter was primarily driven by the planned increases in our Snacks division. Overall, our adjusted marketing and selling expenses represented approximately 9% of net sales for the quarter and the full fiscal year. And adjusted administrative expenses increased by $11 million or 7% to $164 million due to higher general administrative costs and inflation, partially offset by increased benefits from cost-saving initiatives.

本季度 A&C 的增長主要是由我們零食部門的計劃增長推動的。總體而言，我們調整後的營銷和銷售費用約佔本季度和整個財年淨銷售額的 9%。由於一般管理成本和通貨膨脹增加，調整後的管理費用增加了 1100 萬美元或 7%，達到 1.64 億美元，但部分被成本節約舉措帶來的收益增加所抵消。

As shown on Slide 21, adjusted EBIT for the fourth quarter decreased 10%, primarily due to higher adjusted marketing and selling expenses, higher adjusted administrative expenses and higher adjusted other expenses related to lower pension and postretirement benefit income this year, partially offset by higher adjusted gross profit.

如幻燈片21 所示，第四季度調整後息稅前利潤下降10%，主要是由於調整後營銷和銷售費用增加、調整後管理費用增加以及與今年養老金和退休後福利收入減少相關的調整後其他費用增加，部分被較高的調整所抵消。調整後的毛利潤。

Lower pension and postretirement benefit income this year drove an approximate $7 million impact to adjusted EBIT. Overall, our adjusted EBIT margin decreased to 11.7% in the quarter, primarily driven by a lower adjusted gross profit margin, higher adjusted marketing and selling expenses and the impact of lower pension and postretirement benefit income.

今年養老金和退休後福利收入的下降對調整後的息稅前利潤產生了約 700 萬美元的影響。總體而言，本季度調整後息稅前利潤率下降至 11.7%，主要是由於調整後毛利率較低、調整後營銷和銷售費用較高以及養老金和退休後福利收入較低的影響。

Turning to Slide 22. Adjusted EPS of $0.50 was down 11% or $0.06 per share compared to the prior year. This was primarily driven by the decrease in adjusted EBIT and slightly higher interest expense, partially offset by a lower adjusted effective tax rate and a reduction in the weighted average diluted shares outstanding. Turning to the segments in Meals & Beverage. Fourth quarter organic net sales increased 1%, reflecting net price realization, partially offset by unfavorable volume and mix. Sales increases in foodservice and Prego pasta sauces were partially offset by declines in beverages, U.S. soup and Canada. Sales of U.S. Soup decreased 2%, primarily due to declines in ready-to-serve soups, partially offset by strong increases in broth and modest increases in condensed.

轉向幻燈片 22。調整後每股收益為 0.50 美元，與上一年相比下降了 11%，即每股 0.06 美元。這主要是由於調整後息稅前利潤下降和利息支出略有上升，但部分被調整後有效稅率降低和加權平均稀釋流通股減少所抵消。轉向餐飲部分。第四季度有機淨銷售額增長 1%，反映淨價實現，但部分被不利的銷量和組合所抵消。餐飲服務和 Prego 意大利麵醬的銷量增長被飲料、美國湯品和加拿大銷量的下降部分抵消。美國湯的銷量下降了 2%，主要是由於即食湯的銷量下降，但部分被肉湯的強勁增長和濃縮湯的小幅增長所抵消。

Segment operating earnings in the quarter for Meals & Beverages decreased 18% to $132 million, primarily due to lower gross profit. Fourth quarter operating margin declined to 14.1% driven by lower gross profit margin, which was largely due to higher cost inflation and other supply chain costs, as well as unfavorable mix between retail and foodservice, partially offset by net price realization and supply chain productivity improvements.

本季度餐飲和飲料部門的營業利潤下降 18% 至 1.32 億美元，主要是由於毛利潤下降。第四季度營業利潤率下降至14.1%，原因是毛利率下降，這主要是由於成本通脹和其他供應鏈成本上升，以及零售和餐飲服務之間的不利組合，但部分被淨價格實現和供應鏈生產力提高所抵消。

For the fiscal year, segment operating margin declined to 18.2% compared to 19% in the comparable year ago period. In Snacks, fourth quarter organic net sales increased 9%, driven by sales of Power Brands, which were up 13%, and reflected net price realization, partially offset by modest unfavorable volume and mix.

本財年，分部營業利潤率下降至 18.2%，而去年同期為 19%。在零食領域，第四季度的有機淨銷售額增長了 9%，這主要得益於 Power Brands 銷售額增長 13%，並反映了淨價格實現，但部分被銷量和產品組合的不利影響所抵消。

Segment operating earnings in the quarter increased 12% to $158 million, primarily due to higher gross profit, partially offset by higher marketing and selling expenses as well as higher administrative expenses. Gross profit margin increased due to the impact of net price realization and supply chain productivity improvements, more than offsetting higher cost inflation and other supply chain costs and unfavorable volume and mix.

該季度的部門營業利潤增長 12%，達到 1.58 億美元，主要是由於毛利潤增加，但部分被營銷和銷售費用以及管理費用增加所抵消。由於淨價實現和供應鏈生產力提高的影響，毛利率有所增加，足以抵消更高的成本通脹和其他供應鏈成本以及不利的數量和組合。

Overall, within our Snacks division, fourth quarter operating margin increased year-over-year by 60 basis points to 14%. For the fiscal year, we were pleased with our margin progress posting a 130 basis point improvement to 14.4% compared to 13.1% in the prior year.

總體而言，我們的零食部門第四季度營業利潤率同比增長 60 個基點，達到 14%。對於本財年，我們對利潤率進展感到滿意，與上一年的 13.1% 相比，提高了 130 個基點，達到 14.4%。

I'll now turn to our cash flow and liquidity. Fiscal 2023 cash flow from operations was $1.14 billion compared to $1.18 billion in the prior year, primarily due to changes in working capital partially offset by higher cash earnings. In line with our commitment to return value to shareholders, we have returned nearly $590 million through dividends and share repurchases through this fiscal year.

我現在談談我們的現金流和流動性。 2023 財年運營現金流為 11.4 億美元，而上一年為 11.8 億美元，主要是由於營運資本的變化被現金收益增加部分抵消。根據我們向股東回報價值的承諾，我們在本財年通過股息和股票回購返還了近 5.9 億美元。

Cash outflows from investing activities reflected capital expenditures of $370 million, $128 million higher than in the prior year as we invested in key growth areas, particularly in our Snacks division. Our year-to-date cash outflows from financing activities were $723 million, including $447 million of dividends paid and $142 million of share repurchases.

投資活動產生的現金流出反映了資本支出 3.7 億美元，比上一年增加了 1.28 億美元，因為我們投資於關鍵增長領域，特別是零食部門。年初至今，我們的融資活動現金流出為 7.23 億美元，其中包括 4.47 億美元的股息支付和 1.42 億美元的股票回購。

At the end of the quarter, we had approximately $301 million remaining under the current $500 million strategic share repurchase program and approximately $104 million remaining under our $250 million anti-dilutive share repurchase program.

截至本季度末，我們當前 5 億美元的戰略股票回購計劃剩餘約 3.01 億美元，2.5 億美元的反稀釋股票回購計劃剩餘約 1.04 億美元。

Our balance sheet ended the fiscal year in a strong position with net debt of $4.5 billion and with a net debt to adjusted EBITDA leverage ratio of 2.6x, well below our targeted 3x range. This puts us in great shape as we plan for the pending Sovos Brands acquisition. As of year-end, the company had approximately $189 million in cash and cash equivalents and approximately $1.85 billion available under its revolving credit facility, providing a significant excess liquidity and flexibility.

我們的資產負債表在本財年結束時處於強勢地位，淨債務為 45 億美元，淨債務與調整後 EBITDA 槓桿率為 2.6 倍，遠低於我們 3 倍目標範圍。這使我們在計劃即將進行的 Sovos Brands 收購時處於良好狀態。截至年底，該公司擁有約 1.89 億美元的現金和現金等價物，以及約 18.5 億美元的循環信貸額度，提供了顯著的過剩流動性和靈活性。

Turning to Slide 26, let me walk you through our full year fiscal '24 guidance. As a reminder, the sale of our Emerald nuts business, which we divested in May of fiscal 2023, is estimated to reduce net sales by approximately 0.5 percentage point and have a $0.01 per share dilutive impact in fiscal 2024. Additionally, the acquisition of Sovos Brands is expected to close by the end of December 2023, and therefore, is not yet included in our current fiscal 2024 outlook. For revenue, we expect reported net sales growth to be in a range of down 0.5% to plus 1.5% and organic net sales growth of flat to 2% for the year.

轉向幻燈片 26，讓我向您介紹我們的 24 財年全年指導。提醒一下，我們於 2023 財年 5 月剝離的翡翠堅果業務的出售預計將導致淨銷售額減少約 0.5 個百分點，並在 2024 財年產生每股 0.01 美元的攤薄影響。此外，收購 Sovos Brands 預計將於2023 年12 月底關閉，因此尚未納入我們當前的2024 財年展望中。就收入而言，我們預計今年報告的淨銷售額增長率將在下降 0.5% 至 1.5% 之間，有機淨銷售額增長率將持平至 2%。

Our expectations reflect improving volume trends throughout the year with an expected lower contribution from pricing and disciplined levels of promotional activity. In terms of phasing, we do expect volume declines to continue in the first half of fiscal 2024 with sequential improvement leading to positive trends in the second half. This dynamic will be most pronounced in Q1, where we would expect top line to be very much in line with consumption.

我們的預期反映了全年銷量趨勢的改善，預計定價和嚴格的促銷活動水平的貢獻將會降低。就分階段而言，我們確實預計 2024 財年上半年銷量將繼續下降，而下半年的連續改善將帶來積極的趨勢。這種動態在第一季度最為明顯，我們預計第一季度的收入將與消費非常一致。

For earnings, we expect adjusted EBIT and adjusted EPS growth of 3% to 5% with an adjusted EPS range of $3.09 to $3.15. We also see the opportunity for modest margin progress. Having exited Q4 with core inflation of 6%, we expect sequential quarterly improvement throughout fiscal 2024 and expect full year core inflation in the low single-digit range. We also expect productivity improvements of approximately 3% and cost savings of approximately $35 million to $40 million towards our $1 billion savings program.

就盈利而言，我們預計調整後息稅前利潤和調整後每股收益增長 3% 至 5%，調整後每股收益範圍為 3.09 美元至 3.15 美元。我們還看到了利潤率小幅增長的機會。第四季度核心通脹率為 6%，我們預計 2024 財年的季度環比將有所改善，並預計全年核心通脹率將保持在較低的個位數範圍內。我們還預計生產力將提高約 3%，並且我們的 10 億美元節約計劃將節省約 3500 萬至 4000 萬美元的成本。

As a result of improved second half volume trends and these cost dynamics, earnings growth and margin expansion are expected to be second half weighted. Additionally, in line with our continued commitment to brand investments, we expect marketing and selling expense as a percent of net sales to be at the low end of our targeted 9% to 10% range with a step-up in marketing and selling spend in the first quarter of fiscal 2024, both on a year-over-year basis and sequentially compared to the fourth quarter of fiscal 2023.

由於下半年銷量趨勢的改善以及這些成本動態，預計下半年的盈利增長和利潤率擴張將受到影響。此外，根據我們對品牌投資的持續承諾，我們預計營銷和銷售費用占淨銷售額的百分比將處於我們目標 9% 至 10% 範圍的低端，並在 2019 年增加營銷和銷售支出。 2024 財年第一季度的同比情況以及與2023 財年第四季度的環比情況。

Division operating margins are expected to improve overall for fiscal 2024 with Snacks operating margins expected to be above 15% and modest operating margin expansion in Meals & Beverage expected in the second half of the fiscal year. Our full year adjusted EBIT and EPS guidance also comprehends an estimated pension headwind of approximately $13 million to adjusted EBIT or $0.03 per share. This is significantly lower than the impact we saw in fiscal 2023 and represents approximately 1% of both adjusted EBIT and adjusted EPS growth compared to the 3% to 4% impact we saw in the prior year. This headwind will be most pronounced in the first quarter.

預計 2024 財年該部門的營業利潤率將整體改善，其中零食業務的營業利潤率預計將超過 15%，而餐飲業務的營業利潤率預計將在本財年下半年出現小幅增長。我們的全年調整後息稅前利潤和每股收益指引還包括預計養老金逆風對調整後息稅前利潤或每股 0.03 美元的影響約為 1300 萬美元。這明顯低於我們在 2023 財年看到的影響，約佔調整後息稅前利潤和調整後每股收益增長的 1%，而我們上一年看到的影響為 3% 至 4%。這種逆風將在第一季度最為明顯。

Other key assumptions underlying our guidance included an expected net interest expense of approximately $185 million to $190 million and an adjusted effective tax rate of approximately 24%. As we think about the phasing for the year, we expect the first quarter adjusted earnings growth rate to be the lowest of the year due to the concentration of higher inflation, increased marketing and selling expenses, the highest quarter impact from lower pension income and some costs related to a nonmaterial cyber incident.

我們指導的其他關鍵假設包括預計淨利息支出約為 1.85 億至 1.9 億美元，調整後的有效稅率約為 24%。在考慮今年的分階段時，我們預計第一季度調整後盈利增長率將是今年最低的，原因是通脹上升、營銷和銷售費用增加、養老金收入下降和一些因素對季度影響最大。與非重大網絡事件相關的成本。

As you know, we don't provide quarterly guidance. Given the unique dynamics in Q1, however, we expect first quarter adjusted EPS likely in the upper $0.80 range with momentum building as the year progresses. As I wrap up guidance, capital expenditures are expected to be approximately 4.7% of net sales.

如您所知，我們不提供季度指導。然而，鑑於第一季度的獨特動態，我們預計第一季度調整後每股收益可能會在 0.80 美元的區間內，並且隨著今年的進展，勢頭將會增強。在我總結指導時，資本支出預計約為淨銷售額的 4.7%。

Our priorities for fiscal 2024 include select capacity expansion projects, including the recently announced Goldfish investment, our headquarter consolidation and other programs to support our Snacks margin improvement plan as well as important IT and productivity investments. We see great opportunity to reinvest back into the business in support of growth and improve profitability. This is fueling the modest step-up in investment compared to the last couple of years and remains very much aligned with our long-term algorithm and capital allocation priorities.

我們 2024 財年的優先事項包括精選產能擴張項目，包括最近宣布的 Goldfish 投資、總部整合和其他支​​持我們零食利潤改善計劃的計劃以及重要的 IT 和生產力投資。我們看到了重新投資業務以支持增長和提高盈利能力的絕佳機會。與過去幾年相比，這推動了投資的適度增長，並且與我們的長期算法和資本配置優先事項非常一致。

We are also committed to maintaining a competitive dividend and a strong balance sheet. In closing, we are confident that the relevance of our brands, our strength and capabilities in marketing, innovation and supply chain execution provide a solid setup for accelerated growth in the second half of the year and into fiscal 2025.

我們還致力於保持有競爭力的股息和強勁的資產負債表。最後，我們相信，我們品牌的相關性、我們在營銷、創新和供應鏈執行方面的實力和能力，將為今年下半年和 2025 財年的加速增長奠定堅實的基礎。

That concludes my prepared remarks, and I'll turn it over to the operator for Q&A.

我準備好的發言就到此結束，我將把它交給接線員進行問答。

(Operator Instructions)

（操作員說明）

And your first question comes from the line of Andrew Lazar from Barclays.

你的第一個問題來自巴克萊銀行的安德魯·拉扎爾。

Mark, thanks for some of your commentary at the outset on the sort of the current operating environment in the industry and how that sort of impacts your thinking for the year ahead. You talked about a number of impacts and then a bunch of sort of timing factors, right, to keep in mind as we think about the year. So I guess I was hoping maybe you could maybe give us a little bit more color on sort of how you see the phasing, particularly as it relates to sort of volume recovery as you go through the year? And for the -- I guess, for the full year, how you would think that organic growth target you've laid out sort of breaks out between, let's say, volume and pricing?

馬克，感謝您一開始就行業當前的運營環境以及這對您未來一年的思考有何影響的評論。您談到了一些影響，然後是一系列時間因素，對吧，在我們思考這一年時要記住。所以我想我希望你能給我們更多關於你如何看待分階段的信息，特別是因為它與你一年中的銷量恢復有關？我想，對於全年，您如何看待您制定的有機增長目標在數量和價格之間的突破？

And then I guess, secondly just would be, do you feel like the, given it's a back-end loaded year, and it's for reasons that I understand, do you feel like you're giving yourself enough room or flexibility to sort of hit those numbers, particularly in light of some of the very recent or near-term trends that you discussed in the industry?

然後我想，其次就是，你是否覺得，鑑於今年是後端負載的一年，這是出於我理解的原因，你是否覺得你給了自己足夠的空間或靈活性來擊球這些數字，特別是考慮到您在行業中討論的一些最近或近期趨勢？

Yes, sure. It's a great question and one that I think, as you would imagine, we probably spent the greatest amount of time really trying to unpack it. And as you point out, as you rightfully point out, it really starts from getting a good understanding of what we're experiencing now.

是的，當然。這是一個很好的問題，我認為，正如你想像的那樣，我們可能花了最多的時間來真正嘗試解開它。正如您所指出的，正如您正確地指出的那樣，這實際上是從充分了解我們現在正在經歷的事情開始的。

And I think we've had a couple of quarters where arguably, we've seen consistence across the -- pretty broad-based across the industry some slowdown and perhaps a little less volume recovery than what many of us might have originally expected. And so really digging into that to understand the drivers, I think, are important for getting the confidence or the conviction in the full year.

我認為我們已經經歷了幾個季度，可以說，我們已經看到了整個行業相當廣泛的一致性，有些放緩，而且銷量復甦可能比我們許多人最初預期的要少一些。因此，我認為，真正深入研究這一點以了解驅動因素對於獲得全年的信心或信念非常重要。

As I laid out earlier, we kind of anchored on 3 things that we see influencing the numbers with kind of variable impact as it relates to timing or sequence through the year.

正如我之前所闡述的，我們將注意力集中在三件事上，我們認為這些因素會影響數字，因為它與一年中的時間或順序有關。

So the first one and the one perhaps that for many might not have been immediately on the radar screen is this kind of tail end of COVID impact. And I know that's perhaps something we didn't talk a lot about 1 year ago in fourth quarter. But as we really took time to kind of step back and compare baselines of our categories, especially some of our, let's call it, less prevalent in the summer categories like soup, you really do see a very tight linkage to where we saw a couple of the surges that occurred in the tail end of fiscal '22 for us and into the first quarter of '23. That is really the tail end of it.

因此，第一個可能對許多人來說可能不會立即出現在雷達屏幕上的就是新冠疫情影響的尾聲。我知道這可能是我們一年前第四季度沒有談論太多的事情。但是，由於我們確實花了一些時間退後一步並比較我們類別的基線，尤其是一些在夏季類別中不太流行的類別，例如湯，您確實看到與我們看到的幾個類別之間存在非常緊密的聯繫我們在 22 財年末和 23 財年第一季度出現了激增。這確實是它的尾聲。

So although we see that as a fairly material impact on a couple of areas, I do think you're going, by the time you get really into the later part of Q1 and into Q2, we don't see that as much of an impact. And in fairness, I think looking back, it was probably a catalyst for helping us deliver even better elasticities than perhaps anyone really expected at that time. Although I would still say, even without it, it was still much better elasticities than what history would provide.

因此，儘管我們認為這對幾個領域產生了相當重大的影響，但我確實認為，當您真正進入第一季度的後半部分和第二季度時，我們認為這不會產生太大的影響。影響。公平地說，我認為回顧過去，這可能是幫助我們提供比當時任何人真正預期的更好彈性的催化劑。儘管我仍然想說，即使沒有它，它的彈性仍然比歷史提供的要好得多。

So I think that one's definitely a transitional one. You can see a start. You can see an end. I think we'll feel that a little bit in Q1. But as we get through the balance of the year, I would not expect that to be a headwind.

所以我認為這絕對是一個過渡性的。你可以看到一個開始。你可以看到結局。我認為我們會在第一季度感受到一點。但當我們度過今年剩下的時間時，我不認為這會成為一個阻力。

I think the second area I talked about is pricing. And that one obviously will be with us throughout the year, but the orders of magnitude will sequentially improve pretty significantly after being at kind of the peak, which is about 16% pricing impact in Q1, and as that moderates through the year and gets better from quarter to quarter, I do expect that impact to become less significant just mathematically.

我認為我談到的第二個領域是定價。這個顯然會伴隨我們一整年，但在達到峰值後，數量級將連續顯著改善，第一季度的定價影響約為 16%，隨著這一年的放緩並變得更好從季度到季度，我確實預計這種影響在數學上會變得不那麼重要。

But I also think that as you're continuing to build and support the brands the way we've been doing it, I think that your volume and the prediction of volumes improving. As you get to that kind of more, I would say, normal environment, I think that's going to be one of the catalysts that helps the sequential improvement through the year.

但我也認為，隨著你們繼續以我們一直以來的方式建立和支持品牌，我認為你們的銷量和銷量預測都會有所改善。當你達到這種程度時，我會說，正常的環境，我認為這將成為有助於全年連續改善的催化劑之一。

The last one and perhaps the most interesting just to talk a little bit about is what's the consumer behavior because perhaps at the end of the day, that's going to be the greatest indicator of that recovery. And one of the things that I think has been interesting, as we've really dug into this, is this bifurcation between seasonal categories. And as consumers' market baskets are shrinking, what we really see is this kind of 2-pronged rationalization.

最後一個，也許是最有趣的一點，就是消費者行為是什麼，因為也許最終，這將是複甦的最重要指標。我認為有趣的事情之一是季節性類別之間的分歧，因為我們已經深入研究了這一點。隨著消費者的市場籃子不斷縮小，我們真正看到的是這種雙管齊下的合理化。

One, first, prioritizing those categories that are more relevant in the season. So those that are more prevalent in the summer tend to hold up better in the consumer's basket than maybe a soup, for example, where it drops pretty significantly in the summer in household penetration, and we can see that kind of amplified in a little bit of category-to-category comparisons.

一、首先，優先考慮那些與季節更相關的類別。因此，那些在夏季更流行的產品往往比湯更能留在消費者的購物籃中，例如，在夏季，湯的家庭滲透率大幅下降，我們可以看到這種情況略有放大類別與類別之間的比較。

The great news is when the seasons move into the fall and into the winter, as I think we all understand kind of where the spikes are for soup in general, that jumps up to a top 10 category based on household penetration in those seasons. And that gives us a lot of conviction that the relevance and the prioritization of that in a shopper's basket will begin to go up.

好消息是，當季節進入秋季和冬季時，我想我們都知道湯的總體峰值在哪裡，根據這些季節的家庭滲透率，湯會躍升至前十名。這讓我們堅信，購物籃中的相關性和優先級將開始上升。

And in fact, even in the more recent trends, although far from perfect, we've started to see some of that improvement occurring. I mentioned this on the call, one of the things that's quite interesting where snacking has been much steadier and more consistent. Part of that fact is because in every season, snacking is #1 or #2 as far as rating is a priority or household penetration for consumers. So I do think there is this dynamic where consumers are making trade-offs.

事實上，即使在最近的趨勢中，儘管遠非完美，但我們已經開始看到一些改進正在發生。我在電話中提到了這一點，這是一件非常有趣的事情，零食變得更加穩定和一致。這一事實的部分原因是，在每個季節，就評級是否優先或消費者的家庭滲透率而言，零食都排名第一或第二。所以我確實認為消費者正在做出權衡。

And I think the second part of that is really this dynamic of consumers trying to stretch their dollar. And what I mean by that is we see a migration to categories and purchases that enable consumers to feed a greater number of family members or a greater number of servings. And so you see things like pasta, rice, pasta sauce for us, our cooking condensed soups hold up and do very, very well, where some of our more single serve, maybe a little bit more individual products have been a little bit more impacted, if you will, by this recent kind of consumer tightening, if you will, that's not unexpected in the -- given the macroeconomic environment and kind of the sustained inflationary period.

我認為第二部分實際上是消費者試圖花更多錢的動力。我的意思是，我們看到品類和購買方式的轉變，使消費者能夠養活更多的家庭成員或提供更多的食物。所以你會看到我們的意大利面、米飯、意大利麵醬之類的東西，我們烹飪的濃縮湯經得起考驗，而且做得非常非常好，其中我們的一些更單一的服務，也許更多一些單獨的產品受到了更大的影響考慮到宏觀經濟環境和持續的通貨膨脹時期，如果你願意的話，通過最近的這種消費緊縮，如果你願意的話，這並不意外。

I think I expect that to continue. But as inflation perhaps moderates through the year, I would expect some of that pressure or some of that more return to normal to be present across the fiscal year, although I do see very much, especially in the first part of Q1, where we're still in kind of that summer season. But this particular area will continue to impact the business. But when you put together this kind of cycling and COVID, the moderation of pricing and what I think will be a better position for some of our categories relative to seasonality and priority in the basket along with a bit more expected normalizing of inflation, this is why we see the sequence of the year improving. And this is why we also think this is not a moment or a structural change to food that requires you to chase volume or share kind of to the bottom, right?

我想我希望這種情況能夠繼續下去。但隨著全年通脹可能放緩，我預計整個財年會出現一些壓力或更多恢復正常的情況，儘管我確實看到了很多，特別是在第一季度的第一部分，我們'我們仍然處於那個夏季。但這個特定領域將繼續影響業務。但是，當你把這種循環和新冠病毒放在一起時，定價的適度以及我認為相對於季節性和籃子中的優先級以及預期的通脹正常化而言，我們的某些類別將處於更好的位置，這就是為什麼我們看到今年的情況有所改善。這就是為什麼我們也認為這不是食品的一個時刻或結構性變化，需要你追逐數量或分享到底，對嗎？

So the idea that we're going to need dysfunctional promotion to manage what I just walked through is just not what we're seeing. And that's why the confidence of the year is laid out the way it is.

因此，我們需要通過功能失調的晉升來管理我剛剛經歷的事情，這並不是我們所看到的。這就是為什麼今年的信心指數是這樣制定的。

As far as why were we not more conservative? I think what we've always tried to do is appropriately give you the perspective on where we see ourselves and where we see the business with, of course, a little bit of flexibility to deal with whatever the inevitable variability may be. But we feel very good about how the year lays out.

至於為什麼我們不更加保守？我認為我們一直試圖做的就是適當地向您提供我們對自己和業務的看法，當然，還有一點靈活性來應對任何不可避免的變化。但我們對這一年的安排感覺非常好。

And even with a relatively tougher Q1 as we expect most of what you saw in Q4 to be more present in Q1, that sequence and that climb is going to be quite positive. Remember, too, this is -- I remember when we delivered this imagining, lapping it. But last year Q1, we were 15% up on every metric. So top line, EBIT, EPS, all 15% growth. So our comps in the year are significantly tilted to a favorable first half to back half, which just is another reason as you model and do the math to feel a little better about that sequence.

即使第一季度相對艱難，因為我們預計第四季度看到的大部分內容將更多地出現在第一季度，但這一順序和攀升將是相當積極的。還請記住，這是——我記得當我們交付這個想像時，將其拍打。但去年第一季度，我們的每項指標都增長了 15%。因此，營收、息稅前利潤、每股收益均增長 15%。因此，我們今年的比較明顯傾向於有利的上半年到後半段，這也是您建模和計算時對這一序列感覺更好的另一個原因。

Your next question comes from the line of Ken Goldman from JPMorgan.

您的下一個問題來自摩根大通的肯·戈德曼。

Mark, you discussed some of the reasons for volumes to improve in the second half. I certainly appreciate the reasons why. I'm also curious to hear a little bit more about the plan to maybe improve market share, especially in soup and broth. I was just curious how we should think about share trends that we can see in Nielsen. Should we expect them to remain, I don't know if the word challenged is right, but a little bit underwhelming until we can see some of the maybe bigger declines lapped. Or are there any changes you can make to pricing or other marketing efforts that maybe will help us see some of the scanner data in terms of market share reverse a little bit sooner?

馬克，您討論了下半年銷量改善的一些原因。我當然很欣賞其中的原因。我也很想了解更多有關提高市場份額的計劃，特別是在湯和肉湯方面。我只是好奇我們應該如何思考我們在尼爾森看到的股票趨勢。如果我們期望它們繼續存在，我不知道“挑戰”這個詞是否正確，但在我們看到一些可能更大的跌幅消失之前，這有點令人印象深刻。或者您可以對定價或其他營銷工作做出任何改變，這可能會幫助我們更快地看到一些掃描儀數據在市場份額方面的逆轉？

Yes. So it's a good question, Ken. And there's clearly, I would say, very distinctly different parts of our portfolio as we kind of look at it today. I would certainly say one of the things that has been a standout for us has been our Snacks business. And as much as we talk a lot about the dynamics within Meals & Beverages, I would just say for 50% of the business, we feel very, very good about how the brands have held up. And although we still see some pressure on pretzels, where you've got a very distinct driver and reason for that in the acceleration of that category through some new subsegments, the most -- the majority of our brands and especially our power brands really are positioned well.

是的。所以這是一個很好的問題，肯。我想說，從我們今天的角度來看，我們的投資組合顯然有非常明顯不同的部分。我當然會說，對我們來說最突出的事情之一就是我們的零食業務。儘管我們談論了很多餐飲行業的動態，但我只想說，對於 50% 的業務，我們對這些品牌的表現感到非常非常好。儘管我們仍然看到椒鹽捲餅面臨一些壓力，但在通過一些新的細分市場加速該類別的發展方面，您有一個非常獨特的驅動力和原因，但最重要的是，我們的大多數品牌，尤其是我們的實力品牌確實是位置很好。

And although we'll cycle some pricing there as well, I feel very good about how we're competitively positioned as it relates to brands like Goldfish or even our Pepperidge Farm cookie business, which we see a great holiday ahead and really have some terrific innovation coming. Snack Factory has been very strong. Our Kettle potato chips is probably an area where we've seen a little bit more competition. But we know how to play that. We have a great value proposition as it relates to Kettle and Cape Cod and some super innovation there as well.

儘管我們也會在那裡循環一些定價，但我對我們的競爭定位感到非常滿意，因為它與Goldfish 甚至我們的Pepperidge Farm 餅乾業務等品牌相關，我們預計未來將有一個美好的假期，並且確實有一些很棒的業務創新來了。小吃廠一直很強大。我們的 Kettle 薯片可能是一個競爭比較激烈的領域。但我們知道怎麼玩。我們有一個偉大的價值主張，因為它與 Kettle 和 Cape Cod 以及那裡的一些超級創新有關。

So I would just say from a Snacks standpoint, and half of our business, we feel really good about how we're positioned. Then I think as you get into Meals & Beverages, I do think that's probably where we've experienced a little bit more pressure on share, but it is interesting as you kind of fully unpack it.

因此，我只想說，從零食和我們一半業務的角度來看，我們對自己的定位感到非常滿意。然後我認為，當你進入餐飲領域時，我確實認為這可能是我們在分享方面經歷了更多壓力的地方，但當你完全解開它時，它很有趣。

One of the points that I made in my prepared remarks is, for example, on soup, if you were to remove broth as a segment, where we know we're getting a lot more pressure from private label, it's a more commoditized segment. If you took broth out of that, our share is flat in soup, which is really a testament to the core growth areas I talked about, which represents 70% of that portfolio and where I fully expect to continue to grow and drive positive share as we have over the last several years.

我在準備好的發言中提出的一點是，例如，在湯方面，如果你要把肉湯作為一個細分市場，我們知道我們從自有品牌那裡受到了更大的壓力，那麼它是一個更加商品化的細分市場。如果你從中剔除湯汁，我們的份額是持平的，這確實證明了我談到的核心增長領域，它佔該投資組合的 70%，我完全期望這些領域能夠繼續增長並推動正份額我們在過去幾年裡做到了。

You had brands like Chunky returning to share growth. Pacific continues to do well. Our condensed cooking business has really just been performing extremely well competitively. And even in those categories where private label exists, those differentiations that are within those brands have been quite effective. I think on broth and some of our flankers within soup, which is where arguably we felt some of the greatest pressure, I think those are areas where you will see us be very focused on ensuring that value is protected in particular during key seasons or key holidays. But we'll make sure that we stay competitive.

像 Chunky 這樣的品牌回歸分享增長。太平洋繼續表現良好。我們的濃縮烹飪業務確實在競爭中表現非常出色。即使在存在自有品牌的類別中，這些品牌內部的差異化也非常有效。我認為在肉湯和湯中的一些側翼方面，這可以說是我們感受到最大壓力的地方，我認為在這些領域你會看到我們非常專注於確保價值受到保護，特別是在關鍵季節或關鍵時期假期。但我們將確保保持競爭力。

I think on some of the flankers, the opportunity that I think we have there is really to determine that those value propositions, and I think in some cases, we'll have a good path forward. In others, you may see some rationalization in areas as we really tighten that portfolio for the future.

我認為在一些側翼方面，我認為我們確實有機會確定這些價值主張，而且我認為在某些情況下，我們將有一條良好的前進道路。在其他方面，隨著我們為未來真正收緊投資組合，您可能會看到一些領域的合理化。

But as I said, I think the thing that stands out to me is we talk a lot about the soup business and is that a hindrance or a help. I think unpacking a little bit more of the segmentation helps a lot. When you contain 7% of our sales in the company that are in these more challenged areas and with opportunity to improve, I feel a lot better, and I hope the investors would as well that on the balance of that portfolio, we feel very good.

但正如我所說，我認為對我來說最突出的是我們談論了很多關於湯的業務，這是障礙還是幫助。我認為對細分進行更多的解壓會有很大幫助。當我們將公司銷售額的 7% 包含在這些更具挑戰性的領域並有改進的機會時，我感覺好多了，我希望投資者也能在該​​投資組合的平衡上，我們感覺非常好。

Pace has been another standout, and we've seen positive share there and really expect that value proposition. It's used heavily in cooking in meals right now, which bodes quite well for Pace. And then Prego is an interesting one, right? We continue to grow as pasta sauce category performs very well. But we know there's this other segment in ultra-distinctive that has really been outsized growth, and we can't compete there with Prego. That's not what that brand does.

Pace 是另一個傑出的公司，我們在那裡看到了積極的份額，並真正期待這種價值主張。現在它在烹飪中被大量使用，這對佩斯來說是個好兆頭。 Prego 是一個有趣的，對吧？我們繼續增長，因為意大利麵醬類別表現非常出色。但我們知道，還有一個非常獨特的細分市場，它的增長速度確實非常快，我們無法與 Prego 競爭。那不是該品牌所做的。

So although I don't love the share impact there, I kind of understand it. And of course, that's a big catalyst for the Sovos, the potential Sovos acquisition, which I think will be a great complement to our Prego business and give us a lot of conviction going forward. So I think I would start by just saying, I don't think the share performance of the business, when you look at the parts that are most critical, are in a dire position. I think the areas where we do need some work are fairly contained and focused, and I think there's a lot of reasons to believe that where we have strength, we'll continue to drive that going forward.

因此，儘管我不喜歡那裡的份額影響，但我有點理解它。當然，這對 Sovos 來說是一個巨大的催化劑，潛在的 Sovos 收購，我認為這將是對我們 Prego 業務的一個很好的補充，並給我們前進的信心。因此，我想我首先要說的是，當你看看最關鍵的部分時，我認為公司的股價表現並不處於可怕的境地。我認為我們確實需要做一些工作的領域是相當有限和集中的，而且我認為有很多理由相信，在我們有實力的地方，我們將繼續推動這一進程。

Your next question comes from the line of Peter Galbo from Bank of America.

您的下一個問題來自美國銀行的 Peter Galbo。

Mark, I just wanted to kind of hone in a little bit and not to make you do math on the call. But I think if you just kind of take the midpoints of the range you put into the outlook, it implies something like 100 basis points of gross margin expansion in '24 relative to '23. And understanding that's probably a back half-weighted number, I just wanted to maybe give you a chance what gives you the confidence between, I guess, cost savings and COGS productivity maybe moderating inflation just to get there that we should kind of have confidence that, that can come back in the second half of the year?

馬克，我只是想稍微磨練一下，而不是讓你在電話中做數學題。但我認為，如果你只取展望範圍的中點，這意味著 24 年的毛利率相對於 23 年將擴大 100 個基點。我知道這可能是一個半加權的數字，我只是想給你一個機會，讓你在成本節約和銷貨成本生產率之間有信心，也許可以緩和通貨膨脹，只是為了達到這個目的，我們應該有信心，下半年能回來嗎？

Well, we did a pretty good job laying out the drivers right there, Peter. I mean I think, remember, you've got a wonderfully helpful tailwind in our Snacks business and the margin agenda that we're anticipating there. As we mentioned in the call, we feel terrific about the step change that we made in fiscal '23, getting up over 14% from our starting point back kind of pro forma around the 12% range.

好吧，我們把驅動程序佈置在那裡做得非常好，彼得。我的意思是，我認為，請記住，您在我們的零食業務和我們預期的利潤議程中獲得了非常有幫助的推動力。正如我們在電話會議中提到的，我們對 23 財年所做的一步改變感到非常高興，從我們的起點回到了 12% 左右的預估範圍，增長了 14% 以上。

And as we look at '24, we've got a lot of confidence in the initiatives that are there that will keep driving that, and we expect that to be north of 15% as we get into the year. So another important step in our journey to our longer-term margin goals for snacking. But I think underlying kind of macro across the business, you do have a dynamic where you've got reducing inflation as you sequence through the year, especially as we come off a relatively high peak in '23, you're at low single digits today, our outlook is for low single digits as we go into the year. And arguably, that's front-loaded improving through the year is a big driver for that reason why.

展望 24 年，我們對將繼續推動這一趨勢的舉措充滿信心，我們預計進入這一年，這一數字將超過 15%。這是我們實現零食長期利潤目標的又一個重要步驟。但我認為整個行業的宏觀宏觀形勢確實存在一種動態，隨著全年的排序，通貨膨脹率會降低，特別是當我們在23 年擺脫相對較高的峰值時，通脹率處於較低的個位數今天，隨著我們進入今年，我們的預期是低個位數。可以說，這一年的前期改進是一個重要的推動因素。

And then I do think with that kind of moderation, you are enabling your productivity and your cost savings to be more incremental and get back to driving margin expansion. And even on our Meals & Beverage business, where we're anticipating more of modest margin improvement, that will be a big factor for that business and why we believe we'll start that journey back to some stronger margins as we get into the, in particular, into the back half of the year.

然後我確實認為，通過這種適度的調整，您可以使您的生產力和成本節約更加增量，並重新推動利潤率擴張。即使在我們的餐飲業務上，我們預計利潤率會出現更多適度的改善，這將是該業務的一個重要因素，也是為什麼我們相信，當我們進入以下階段時，我們將開始回到更強勁的利潤率之旅，尤其是今年下半年。

But I think as you imagine that landscape, that's how we're seeing this margin bridge or progression through the year. And although we are pointing to a tougher Q1, as many of the dynamics in Q4 still are around in Q1, we're not imagining a significant headwind on gross margins or margins that are going to really impact dramatically and then improve as we go. Carrie, did I miss anything in there?

但我認為，正如你想像的那樣，這就是我們在這一年中看到的利潤橋樑或進展的方式。儘管我們指出第一季度會更加艱難，但由於第四季度的許多動態仍然存在於第一季度，我們並沒有想像毛利率或利潤率會出現重大阻力，這將真正產生巨大影響，然後隨著我們的進展而改善。嘉莉，我錯過了什麼嗎？

Talk a little bit about our foodservice. We think that was a (inaudible).

談談我們的餐飲服務。我們認為這是一個（聽不清）。

That's a great point, yes.

是的，這是一個很好的觀點。

It will normalize, that growth will normalize, which brings itself a little bit of unfavorable mix in fiscal '23 that we won't have...

它將正常化，增長將正常化，這會給我們帶來一些我們不會在 23 財年遇到的不利組合......

Yes. I mean that's a great point. I mean if you look at mix for this -- even in this quarter, if you look at especially Meals & beverage. And if you're wondering a little bit the drivers of that margin that we anticipated, but it's certainly significant, about 1/3 of that is coming from mix, which is really driven by the outsized contribution of foodservice.

是的。我的意思是這是一個很好的觀點。我的意思是，如果你考慮這個組合——即使在本季度，如果你特別考慮餐飲。如果您想知道我們預期的利潤率的驅動因素，但這確實很重要，其中大約 1/3 來自混合，這實際上是由餐飲服務的巨大貢獻推動的。

As we get into Q1, that actually goes away because the recovery of foodservice was really most pronounced starting right in the beginning of fiscal '23. So that mix benefit as you start to go through the balance of the year will be yet another absence, I would say, of a headwind that we had this year.

當我們進入第一季度時，這種情況實際上會消失，因為餐飲服務的複蘇實際上從 23 財年年初開始最為明顯。因此，當你開始度過今年餘下的時間時，這種混合效益將是我們今年遇到的逆風的又一次缺失。

Your next question comes from the line of Michael Lavery from Piper Sandler.

您的下一個問題來自 Piper Sandler 的 Michael Lavery。

I wanted to drill into margins a little bit. And I guess just 2 parts of it. You gave the outlook for 2024 is 15% plus in Snacks. Maybe just confirming, would you still feel like you're on track for 17% by fiscal '25? Or has that been pushed out a bit?

我想深入研究一下邊緣。我猜只有其中的兩部分。您給出的 2024 年零食增長前景為 15% 以上。也許只是確認一下，您是否仍然覺得自己有望在 25 財年實現 17% 的增長？或者說這已經被推遲了一點？

And then on Meals & Beverage, certainly, going into some of the inflation headwinds and some things that are clear. But with the fading pricing, is it just stepped up of productivity that really drives a better improvement in the back half? Like maybe just unpack that a little bit better as well.

當然，在餐飲方面，我們會遇到一些通脹阻力和一些顯而易見的事情。但隨著價格的下降，是否只是生產力的提高才真正推動了下半年的更好改善？就像也許只是更好地解開它。

Yes. So I think on the Snacks side, and Carrie will do this one together as well. But I would tell you that I continue to feel very confident in our road map to 17%. I think as far as do we get all the way there in '25, it will depend a little bit, I think, on some of the environmental elements that have been creating a little bit of the challenge that we've seen over the last couple of years. But I feel very good now with what we put on the board in '23 and what the outlook is for '24. And so I think we're in the hunt.

是的。所以我認為在零食方面，嘉莉也會一起做這個。但我想告訴你們，我仍然對我們達到 17% 的路線圖充滿信心。我認為，就我們能否在25 年一路走到這一步，我認為，這將在一定程度上取決於一些環境因素，這些因素給我們帶來了一些挑戰，就像我們在過去所看到的那樣。許多年。但我現在對 23 年董事會的內容以及 24 年的前景感到非常滿意。所以我認為我們正在尋找。

But I'm a little hesitant. I want to see a couple more variables as it relates to inflation and more environmental costs. One of the things we've talked a little bit about that we've had to try to work our way through is some of the fixed, let's call it, fixed inflation like labor has been tougher, more challenging than we originally put into the model.

但我有點猶豫。我希望看到更多與通貨膨脹和更多環境成本相關的變量。我們已經談到了一些我們必須努力解決的事情之一，那就是一些固定的，我們稱之為固定通脹，比如勞動力，比我們最初投入的更艱難，更具挑戰性。模型。

The good news is we found other means in which to continue to drive further productivity. And so I think we're -- although I see the kind of line of sight, if you will, to 17%, probably want to see a couple more of those variables come in to confirm for sure exactly that timing. And I know we owe that back to folks and we're working on that, and we'll provide that in the near future.

好消息是我們找到了其他方法來繼續提高生產力。所以我認為我們——儘管我看到了這種視線，如果你願意的話，17% 的人可能希望看到更多這些變量的出現，以確保確切地確認這個時間。我知道我們應該向人們回報這一點，我們正在為此努力，我們將在不久的將來提供這一點。

I think on Meals & Beverages, it's a little bit of a function of kind of cycling out of some of the environmental elements that are there. I will say one of the things that on Meals & Beverage has been a little tougher in the more recent period is we've been very judicious on pricing relative to inflation, and that's probably put a little more pressure in Q4 as well as, to some degree, in the first part of the year. As inflation moderates through the year, we expect that dynamic to normalize and then we expect to be able to utilize the productivity more incrementally to drive that kind of moderate margin improvement that we're expecting on meals and beverage for the year.

我認為在餐飲方面，它有點像一些環境元素的循環功能。我要說的是，最近一段時間，餐飲方面遇到的困難之一是，我們在相對於通脹的定價方面非常明智，這可能會給第四季度帶來更大的壓力，在某種程度上，在今年上半年。隨著全年通脹放緩，我們預計這種動態將正常化，然後我們預計能夠更加增量地利用生產力來推動我們預計今年餐飲和飲料的利潤率適度改善。

So it is a little bit of a dynamic of Meals & Beverage needing to be a little bit more balanced. I'm not talking about spending back on promo. I'm simply talking about as we talked previously, through our waves of pricing, how to make sure some of our categories like broth and condensed soup, where we know we're going to be a little bit more value-driven how to manage that.

因此，餐飲的動態需要更加平衡。我不是在談論花在促銷上的錢。我只是在談論我們之前談到的，通過我們的定價浪潮，如何確保我們的一些類別，如肉湯和濃縮湯，我們知道我們將更加註重價值驅動如何管理那。

And although that's provided a little bit of short-term pressure, we expect that as that normalizes in '24 and productivity is more incremental to the business, you'll start to see that pivot back and start to see margins recovery there that I know we're expecting and I think will be very helpful for us as you think about the algorithm and the phasing of '24. Anything I missed?

儘管這帶來了一點短期壓力，但我們預計，隨著24 年這種情況的正常化，並且生產力對業務的影響更大，你將開始看到這種轉變，並開始看到利潤率的恢復，我知道我們期待著，並且我認為當您考慮 '24 的算法和分階段時，這對我們非常有幫助。我錯過了什麼嗎？

Our next question comes from the line of Jason English from Goldman Sachs.

我們的下一個問題來自高盛的 Jason English。

Congrats on the margin progression on Snacks. It's good to see. But sticking on margins and turning to the other side, Meals & Beverages. Obviously, some challenges there, particularly in the back half of the year. Based on normal seasonality, it suggests that it looks like you're probably going to enter the year with margins down a couple of 100 basis points in the first quarter and maybe down up to 100 basis points or so in the second quarter.

恭喜 Snacks 的利潤增長。很高興看到。但堅持利潤並轉向另一邊，即餐飲。顯然，存在一些挑戰，特別是在今年下半年。根據正常的季節性，這表明您進入今年第一季度的利潤率可能會下降幾個 100 個基點，第二季度可能會下降 100 個基點左右。

To get to margins up for the full year, if I'm right on that, and please confirm or deny, it implies material margin expansion in the back half of the year. So is that cadence roughly in line with your expectations? And if so, what drives that ramp in the back half?

為了提高全年的利潤率，如果我的觀點是對的，請確認或否認，這意味著下半年的利潤率將大幅增長。那麼這個節奏大致符合你的預期嗎？如果是這樣，是什麼推動了後半部分的坡道？

Yes. I think a big part of it, Jason, is that we have definitely seen -- let's take Q4 as an example on Meals & Beverages, and we talked a little bit about this in Q3 as we kind of foreshadowed the fourth quarter.

是的。傑森，我認為其中很大一部分是我們確實已經看到了——讓我們以第四季度的餐飲為例，我們在第三季度對此進行了一些討論，因為我們有點預示了第四季度的情況。

And although fairly consistent to expectations, you have about 1/3 of the impact on Meals & Beverage that is a mix dynamic that we would expect to reverse in the second half. So as you see a more dramatic contribution from foodservice and some other lower margin segments that are in the business, as well as you look at where some of the pressure has been relative to the consumer dynamics I talked about, there's no question that's been a little bit more significant on our soup business, which as you know, has a very good margin architecture.

儘管與預期相當一致，但對餐飲的影響大約有 1/3，這是我們預計下半年會扭轉的混合動態。因此，當你看到餐飲服務和其他一些利潤率較低的業務領域做出了更顯著的貢獻，並且你看到了與我談到的消費者動態相關的一些壓力時，毫無疑問，這是一個我們的湯品業務更重要一點，正如你所知，湯品業務擁有非常好的利潤架構。

So mix is a big part of what that dynamic or that swing will be. The other contributor -- the other major contribution to the margin headwind has been this dynamic that we really do only expect to see in Q4 and Q1, where we knew that pricing was going to lag a little bit of the tail end of inflation as we made some choices relative to more pricing that we did not take in places like broth and a little bit to some degree in condensed soup.

因此，混合是動態或搖擺的重要組成部分。另一個因素——對利潤逆風的另一個主要貢獻是這種動態，我們確實只希望在第四季度和第一季度看到這種動態，我們知道定價將滯後於通貨膨脹的尾部，因為我們做出了一些相對於更多定價的選擇，我們在肉湯和濃縮湯等地方沒有採取一些選擇。

As the inflation numbers normalize throughout the balance of the year, that is going to be a marked difference in margin impact. And then with the significance of a lot of productivity that we've been putting in place, recognizing some of the structural inflation and costs that I talked about will really be landing in the back half of the year. So I do expect to see outsized margin recovery in the back half.

隨著今年剩餘時間通脹數據趨於正常，利潤率影響將出現顯著差異。然後，考慮到我們已經實施的大量生產力的重要性，認識到我談到的一些結構性通脹和成本將真正在今年下半年出現。因此，我確實預計下半年利潤率將大幅回升。

And I think although you're phasing does illustrate that, I think it's fairly accurate to how we see the year unfolding. But I think the drivers that are inherent in that are able to we can pinpoint those. And for the most part, they're not necessarily executionally driven or even dramatically related to kind of hope and prayers for the environment. They're pretty mechanical in nature and is why we felt confident in building a profile that has a little bit more of a back-weighted margin improvement as it relates to Meals & Beverage. So hopefully, that helps give you at least the variables that we're looking at.

我認為，儘管你的分階段確實說明了這一點，但我認為這對於我們如何看待這一年的發展相當準確。但我認為，我們能夠找出其中固有的驅動因素。在大多數情況下，它們不一定是執行驅動的，甚至與對環境的希望和祈禱密切相關。它們本質上是相當機械的，這就是為什麼我們有信心建立一個與餐飲相關的反向加權利潤改善的檔案。希望這至少能幫助您了解我們正在研究的變量。

And that's super helpful. But I'm still a little bit confused. So maybe you can unpack that mix component for me a little bit more because my understanding, my thought was that this was more of a normalization, that foodservice was recovering and now we're back to more normal mix. You're saying it's abnormal. It's going to reverse. So what is abnormal and going to reverse?

這非常有幫助。但我還是有點困惑。所以也許你可以為我進一步解釋一下混合成分，因為我的理解，我的想法是，這更像是一種正常化，餐飲服務正在恢復，現在我們又回到了更正常的混合狀態。你說的是不正常。情況將會逆轉。那麼什麼是不正常的、會發生逆轉的呢？

Yes, I think you've got the dual impact of greater pressure on higher margin portions of your business while also having a much higher growth contribution from foodservice. I think both of those variables flip in the back half of the year. I think you'll see a stronger relative performance out of our soup business and higher-margin portions of our business while also having, as you point out, a more normalized contribution from foodservice. So I do think it is a little outsized right now as it relates to what we're modeling for the back half of the year.

是的，我認為您受到了雙重影響：業務的高利潤部分面臨更大的壓力，同時餐飲服務也帶來了更高的增長貢獻。我認為這兩個變量都會在今年下半年發生變化。我認為您會看到我們的湯業務和利潤率較高的業務部分的相對錶現更強，同時，正如您所指出的，餐飲服務的貢獻也更加正常化。所以我確實認為它現在有點過大，因為它與我們為今年下半年建模的內容有關。

Predicate on pretty meaningful volume growth in soup in the back half of the year. Am I understanding that correctly?

預計今年下半年湯的銷量將出現相當大的增長。我的理解正確嗎？

I think returning to volume growth. Meaningful, I think, is always a little bit of a -- for soup, yes, I think it will be meaningful growth.

我認為回到銷量增長。我認為，有意義的總是一點點——對於湯來說，是的，我認為這將是有意義的增長。

Ladies and gentlemen, we have reached the end of our question-and-answer session. This concludes today's conference call. We thank you for your participation. And you may now disconnect.

女士們先生們，我們的問答環節已經結束了。今天的電話會議到此結束。我們感謝您的參與。您現在可以斷開連接。