Copa Holdings SA (CPA) 2021 Q1 法說會逐字稿

Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for standing by.

女士們，先生們，謝謝你們的支持。

Welcome to the Copa Holdings First Quarter Earnings Call.

歡迎參加 Copa Holdings 第一季度財報電話會議。

(Operator Instructions) As a reminder, this call is being webcast and recorded on May 6, 2021.

（操作員說明）提醒一下，本次通話將於 2021 年 5 月 6 日進行網絡直播和錄製。

Now I will turn the conference over to Raul Pascual, Director of Investor Relations.

現在我將把會議交給投資者關係總監 Raul Pascual。

Sir, you may begin.

先生，您可以開始了。

Thank you, Tamika, and welcome, everyone, to our first quarter earnings call.

謝謝塔米卡，歡迎大家參加我們的第一季度財報電話會議。

Joining us today are Pedro Heilbron, CEO of Copa Holdings; and Jose Montero, our CFO.

今天加入我們的是 Copa Holdings 首席執行官 Pedro Heilbron；和我們的首席財務官 Jose Montero。

First, Pedro will start by going over our first quarter highlights and the actions the company has taken to mitigate the impact from the COVID-19 pandemic, followed by Jose, who will discuss our first quarter financial results in detail.

首先，Pedro 將首先回顧我們第一季度的亮點以及公司為減輕 COVID-19 大流行的影響而採取的行動，然後是 Jose，他將詳細討論我們的第一季度財務業績。

Immediately after, we'll open the call for questions from analysts.

緊接著，我們將打開分析師提問的電話。

Copa Holdings' financial reports have been prepared in accordance with International Financial Reporting Standards.

Copa Holdings 的財務報告是根據國際財務報告準則編制的。

In today's call, we will discuss non-IFRS financial measures.

在今天的電話會議中，我們將討論非 IFRS 財務指標。

A reconciliation of the non-IFRS to IFRS financial measures can be found in our earnings release, which has been posted on the company's website, copa.com.

非國際財務報告準則與國際財務報告準則財務指標的對賬可在我們的收益發布中找到，該發布已發佈在公司網站 copa.com 上。

Our discussion today will also contain forward-looking statements, not limited to historical facts, that reflect the company's current beliefs, expectations and/or intentions regarding future events and results.

我們今天的討論還將包含前瞻性陳述，不僅限於歷史事實，這些陳述反映了公司當前對未來事件和結果的信念、期望和/或意圖。

These forward-looking statements involve risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results to differ materially and are based on assumptions subject to change.

這些前瞻性陳述涉及可能導致實際結果出現重大差異的風險和不確定性，並且基於可能發生變化的假設。

Many of these are discussed in our annual report filed with the SEC.

其中許多在我們提交給美國證券交易委員會的年度報告中進行了討論。

Now I'd like to turn the call over to our CEO, Mr. Pedro Heilbron.

現在我想把電話轉給我們的首席執行官 Pedro Heilbron 先生。

Thank you, Raul.

謝謝你，勞爾。

Good morning to all, and thanks for participating in our first quarter earnings call.

大家早上好，感謝您參加我們的第一季度財報電話會議。

Before we begin, I'd like to thank all our coworkers for their commitment to the company, and recognize their continuous efforts and dedication to keep Copa at the forefront of Latin American aviation.

在開始之前，我要感謝我們所有的同事對公司的承諾，並感謝他們為使 Copa 保持在拉丁美洲航空業的前沿而不斷努力和奉獻。

To them, as always, my utmost respect and admiration.

對他們，一如既往，我最大的尊重和欽佩。

In our last earnings call in February, we advised of deteriorating demand patterns and expressed concerns over what appeared to be new infection waves across many countries in our region.

在 2 月份的最後一次財報電話會議中，我們告知需求模式惡化，並對本地區許多國家似乎出現新的感染浪潮表示擔憂。

Since then, we faced 2 diverging themes in our network.

從那時起，我們在網絡中面臨著 2 個不同的主題。

On the one hand, in the U.S., Panama and a few other countries, we're seeing a downward trend in infection rates, which has led to fewer travel restrictions and an uptick in demand.

一方面，在美國、巴拿馬和其他一些國家，我們看到感染率呈下降趨勢，這導致旅行限制減少和需求增加。

On the other hand, several countries in Latin America continue to struggle with the virus, leading many to reimpose their travel restrictions and/or new health requirements, affecting demand for international travel and, in many cases, leading to a reduction in our planned capacity.

另一方面，拉丁美洲的幾個國家繼續與病毒作鬥爭，導致許多國家重新實施旅行限制和/或新的健康要求，影響了對國際旅行的需求，在許多情況下，導致我們計劃的運力減少.

However, we're hopeful that, as countries in our region continue taking the necessary actions to control this health crisis, we should start seeing a more robust recovery, fewer restrictions and improving traffic patterns.

然而，我們希望，隨著我們地區國家繼續採取必要行動來控制這場健康危機，我們應該開始看到更強勁的複蘇、更少的限制和改善的交通模式。

Now I'll highlight some of our first quarter results.

現在我將重點介紹我們第一季度的一些業績。

In terms of capacity, we reached 39% of first quarter 2019 ASM.

在產能方面，我們達到了 2019 年第一季度 ASM 的 39%。

Load factor improved from 63% in January to 75% in March, leading to an average load factor of 69% for the quarter.

載客率從 1 月份的 63% 提高到 3 月的 75%，導致本季度的平均載客率達到 69%。

Our revenues increased by 17% over the previous quarter to $185 million as a result of additional capacity.

由於產能增加，我們的收入比上一季度增長了 17%，達到 1.85 億美元。

This additional capacity also allowed us to bring down our ex-fuel CASM from $0.134 in Q4 to $0.085.

這種額外的容量還使我們能夠將我們的前燃料 CASM 從第四季度的 0.134 美元降至 0.085 美元。

We reported an operating loss of $77 million in the quarter, 16% better than the adjusted operating loss of $95 million reported in the fourth quarter of 2020.

我們報告本季度的營業虧損為 7700 萬美元，比 2020 年第四季度報告的調整後營業虧損 9500 萬美元高出 16%。

In terms of our liquidity position, we increased our cash balance to $1.2 billion and our total liquidity to over $1.5 billion.

在流動性方面，我們將現金餘額增加到 12 億美元，總流動性增加到超過 15 億美元。

This was driven by extraordinary net proceeds from aircraft financing and asset sales.

這是由飛機融資和資產出售的非凡淨收益推動的。

And our cash consumption, excluding the previously mentioned proceeds, but including CapEx and the payment of all financial obligations, was $23 million per month.

我們的現金消費，不包括前面提到的收益，但包括資本支出和所有財務義務的支付，為每月 2300 萬美元。

That was better than expected due to higher sales, mostly for travel in the second quarter.

由於銷售額增加，這好於預期，主要是第二季度的旅行。

In terms of our operations and despite the incremental complexity imposed by the biosafety protocols, we're pleased to report an on-time performance of 95% for the quarter and a slight completion factor of 99.3%, which is a true testament to our employees' laser-focused commitment to providing a world-class product to our passengers.

就我們的運營而言，儘管生物安全協議增加了複雜性，但我們很高興地報告本季度的準時性能為 95%，完成率略為 99.3%，這是對我們員工的真實證明' 專注於為我們的乘客提供世界級產品的承諾。

So we are proud to be back connecting the Americas with the industry-leading operational standards our passengers expect from us.

因此，我們很自豪能夠重新將美洲與我們的乘客期望的行業領先的運營標準聯繫起來。

Subject to demand and air travel restrictions in the region, in June, we plan to return our flight network to a 6 connecting-bank hub structure, which will enable us to operate more efficiently and to continue adding frequencies and destinations.

根據該地區的需求和航空旅行限制，我們計劃在 6 月將我們的航班網絡恢復為 6 個連接銀行的樞紐結構，這將使我們能夠更有效地運營並繼續增加頻率和目的地。

If our current plan holds, we should be operating more than 60 destinations by the end of the second quarter compared to 80 before the pandemic.

如果我們目前的計劃成立，到第二季度末，我們應該運營 60 多個目的地，而大流行前是 80 個。

Jose will provide a more detailed outlook for the second quarter, which will include specific capacity figures, our latest revenue assumptions and an update on our cash consumption projections.

Jose 將提供更詳細的第二季度展望，其中將包括具體的產能數據、我們最新的收入假設以及我們現金消耗預測的更新。

Regarding our fleet, it was a very busy quarter.

關於我們的艦隊，這是一個非常繁忙的季度。

We received 6 previously built and stored 737 MAX 9 and delivered 4 Embraer-190s to their new owner.

我們收到了 6 架之前建造和存儲的 737 MAX 9，並向他們的新主人交付了 4 架 Embraer-190。

As per our fleet trend, we expect to deliver the last 4 Embraer aircraft in the second quarter and receive 2 more 737 MAX 9s in the fourth quarter, which would have us ending the year with a fleet of 83 aircraft.

根據我們的機隊趨勢，我們預計將在第二季度交付最後 4 架 Embraer 飛機，並在第四季度再接收 2 架 737 MAX 9，這將使我們在年底擁有 83 架飛機。

I'd like to reaffirm that we have a proven and strong business model, which is based on operating the best and most convenient network for intra-Latin America travel from our Hub of the Americas, leveraging Panama's advantageous geographic position with the region's lowest unit cost for a full-service carrier, best on-time performance and strongest balance sheet.

我想重申，我們擁有成熟且強大的商業模式，該模式基於運營從我們的美洲樞紐出發的拉丁美洲內部旅行的最佳和最便捷的網絡，利用巴拿馬的優勢地理位置和該地區最低的單位全方位服務承運人的成本、最佳準時性能和最強大的資產負債表。

Going forward, the company expects that its Hub of the Americas will be an even more valuable source of strategic advantage.

展望未來，該公司預計其美洲中心將成為更有價值的戰略優勢來源。

It's likely that fewer intra-Latin America market will be able to sustain direct point-to-point service, so we believe that Hub of the Americas will be the best positioned to serve this market.

能夠維持直接點對點服務的拉丁美洲內部市場可能會減少，因此我們相信美洲樞紐將是服務該市場的最佳選擇。

Now I will turn it over to Jose, who will go over our financial results in more detail.

現在我將把它交給何塞，他將更詳細地審查我們的財務業績。

Thank you, Pedro.

謝謝你，佩德羅。

Good morning, everyone.

大家，早安。

I hope that you and your families are safe and doing well.

我希望你和你的家人都平安，一切都好。

Thanks for being with us today.

感謝您今天與我們在一起。

I'd like to join Pedro in acknowledging our great corporate team for all their efforts and great spirit during these very challenging times.

我想和佩德羅一起感謝我們偉大的企業團隊在這個充滿挑戰的時期所做的所有努力和偉大的精神。

I'll start by going over our first quarter results.

我將首先回顧我們的第一季度業績。

Our capacity came in at 2.5 billion available seat miles, which amounts to about 39% of the capacity operated during the first quarter of 2019.

我們的運力達到 25 億個可用座位里程，約佔 2019 年第一季度運營運力的 39%。

Load factor came in at an average of 69% for the quarter.

本季度的平均載客率為 69%。

We reported a net loss of $110.7 million or $2.60 per share.

我們報告淨虧損 1.107 億美元或每股 2.60 美元。

Excluding special items, we would have reported a net loss of $95.1 million or $2.23 per share.

不計特殊項目，我們將報告淨虧損 9510 萬美元或每股 2.23 美元。

Special items for the quarter are comprised mainly of an unrealized mark-to-market loss of $15.7 million related to the company's convertible notes issued in 2020.

本季度的特殊項目主要包括與公司 2020 年發行的可轉換票據相關的 1570 萬美元的未實現市值損失。

In terms of operating results, we reported a $77.1 million loss for the quarter, an improvement over the operating results for the fourth quarter of 2020.

在經營業績方面，我們報告本季度虧損 7710 萬美元，比 2020 年第四季度的經營業績有所改善。

And our cash consumption for the quarter came in better than expected at an average of $23 million per month, driven mostly by improving sales for travel during the second quarter.

我們本季度的現金消費平均為每月 2300 萬美元，好於預期，這主要是由於第二季度旅行銷售的改善。

A significant part of our focus as a company is in our costs.

作為一家公司，我們關注的很大一部分是我們的成本。

Our unit costs, excluding fuel, for the first quarter came in at $0.085 per ASM.

我們第一季度的單位成本（不包括燃料）為每 ASM 0.085 美元。

We continued operating more efficiently in terms of passenger servicing as well as in terms of our administrative and other overhead expenses.

在乘客服務以及行政和其他間接費用方面，我們繼續提高運營效率。

And we are poised to achieve a sub $0.06 CASM ex-fuel once we reach our pre-COVID-19 capacity.

一旦我們達到 COVID-19 之前的產能，我們就準備好實現低於 0.06 美元的 CASM 前燃料。

I'm going to spend some time now discussing our balance sheet and liquidity.

我現在要花一些時間討論我們的資產負債表和流動性。

As of the end of the first quarter, we had assets of close to $4.1 billion, and our cash, short and long-term investments ended at $1.2 billion.

截至第一季度末，我們的資產接近 41 億美元，我們的現金、短期和長期投資為 12 億美元。

We also ended the quarter with an aggregate amount of $345 million in unutilized committed credit facilities, which added to our cash, brought our total liquidity to more than $1.5 billion.

在本季度末，我們還擁有總額為 3.45 億美元的未使用承諾信貸額度，這增加了我們的現金，使我們的總流動資金超過 15 億美元。

As to our debt, we ended the quarter with $1.7 billion in debt and lease liabilities.

至於我們的債務，我們在本季度末有 17 億美元的債務和租賃負債。

The increase in our debt balance compared to the end of 2020 is related to the financing of 7 737 MAX 9 aircraft received between December 2020 and March 2021.

與 2020 年底相比，我們的債務餘額增加與 2020 年 12 月至 2021 年 3 月期間收到的 7 737 架 MAX 9 飛機的融資有關。

As for our fleet plan, during the first quarter, we received 6 737 MAX 9 aircraft.

至於我們的機隊計劃，在第一季度，我們收到了 6 737 架 MAX 9 飛機。

We also finalized the sale and delivery of 4 Embraer-190s.

我們還完成了 4 架 Embraer-190 的銷售和交付。

And as of today, we have delivered 10 out of the 14 aircraft we agreed to sell to a third-party and expect to have delivered the entire E-190 fleet by June of 2021.

截至今天，我們已同意出售給第三方的 14 架飛機中的 10 架，預計將在 2021 年 6 月之前交付整個 E-190 機隊。

We ended the quarter with 81 aircraft: 66 -- 68 737-800s and 13 MAX 9s.

我們以 81 架飛機結束本季度：66 - 68 737-800 和 13 架 MAX 9。

Including these figures are 16 737-800s, which will remain in temporary storage until demand trends call for additional capacity.

包括這些數字在內的是 16 737-800，它們將保留在臨時存儲中，直到需求趨勢要求增加容量。

We expect to receive 2 more 737 MAX-9s during the fourth quarter of 2021 and expect to end the year with a total fleet of 83 aircraft.

我們預計在 2021 年第四季度將再接收 2 架 737 MAX-9，並預計到今年年底，機隊總數將達到 83 架。

As to our outlook for the rest of 2021, we are still in a very uncertain and unpredictable demand and operating environment.

至於我們對 2021 年剩餘時間的展望，我們仍處於非常不確定和不可預測的需求和經營環境中。

And as such, we will not be providing full year guidance.

因此，我們不會提供全年指導。

However, based on preliminary results for the month of April and the current state of demand environment and air travel restrictions, we can provide the following outlook for the second quarter of 2021 as compared to the second quarter of 2019.

但是，根據 4 月份的初步結果以及當前的需求環境和航空旅行限制，我們可以提供以下與 2019 年第二季度相比的 2021 年第二季度展望。

We expect capacity to be approximately 45% of Q2 2019 levels at about 2.9 billion ASMs, a 17% increase quarter-over-quarter, and revenues to be approximately 40% of Q2 2019 levels at about $260 million.

我們預計產能約為 2019 年第二季度水平的 45%，約為 29 億份 ASM，環比增長 17%，收入約為 2019 年第二季度水平的 40%，約為 2.6 億美元。

Given these operating conditions, and assuming an all-in fuel price of $1.95 per gallon, we expect our cash consumption for the second quarter to be in the range of $10 million to $15 million per month.

鑑於這些運營條件，並假設燃油價格為每加侖 1.95 美元，我們預計第二季度的現金消耗量將在每月 1000 萬美元至 1500 萬美元之間。

Let me close by stating that once this most challenging situation passes, we believe Copa's Hub of the Americas will remain as the best connecting point for travel in the region, with a pretty niche location and even more efficient business model with lower cost and the best team in the industry.

最後讓我聲明，一旦這一最具挑戰性的情況過去，我們相信 Copa 的美洲樞紐將繼續作為該地區旅行的最佳連接點，擁有相當利基的位置和更高效的商業模式，成本更低，最好行業內的團隊。

Thank you.

謝謝你。

And with that, we'll open the call to some questions.

有了這個，我們將打開一些問題的電話。

(Operator Instructions) Your first question is from the line of Hunter Keay of Wolfe Research.

（操作員說明）您的第一個問題來自 Wolfe Research 的 Hunter Keay。

I appreciate that you're not going to want to give full year guidance at this point, but the second quarter revenue guide was quite strong, I thought, relative to what I was expecting, particularly to the first quarter.

我很感激您此時不想提供全年指導，但我認為，相對於我的預期，尤其是第一季度，第二季度的收入指南相當強勁。

So can you help me frame out how you're thinking about that trajectory into the back half of the year, if these current trends continue?

那麼，如果這些當前趨勢繼續下去，你能幫我弄清楚你如何看待下半年的發展軌跡嗎？

And if it's not a revenue commentary, maybe just help me think about sort of capacity as you're exiting 2021.

如果這不是收入評論，也許只是幫助我考慮一下您在 2021 年退出時的容量。

So let me start, Hunter, and then I'll let Jose add some comment.

讓我開始吧，Hunter，然後讓 Jose 添加一些評論。

So I think, as we have mentioned in the past, it's really very, very difficult to predict the future under the present conditions that we're dealing with, including travel restrictions by many countries and shifting demand patterns.

所以我認為，正如我們過去提到的，在我們正在處理的當前條件下，包括許多國家的旅行限制和不斷變化的需求模式，預測未來真的非常非常困難。

And that's why we're only talking about Q2 and not the rest of the year.

這就是為什麼我們只談論第二季度而不是今年剩下的時間。

But we have enough flexibility in our fleet to add capacity on short notice as we see demand coming in.

但我們的機隊有足夠的靈活性，可以在看到需求出現時在短時間內增加運力。

So we would expect, for the second half of the year, to maybe -- this growth trend that we're talking to between Q1 and Q2 to accelerate somewhat, maybe even as much as doubling the growth pace that we're seeing right now.

因此，我們預計，在今年下半年，我們正在討論的第一季度和第二季度之間的增長趨勢可能會有所加速，甚至可能會比我們現在看到的增長速度翻倍.

But it's really hard to predict as we speak.

但是當我們說話時，真的很難預測。

Yes.

是的。

I think that, Hunter, demand is increasing as of today.

我認為，亨特，從今天開始，需求正在增加。

What we have seen this before, and there's still a level of uncertainty in terms of the behavior of the virus in the region.

我們之前已經看到過這種情況，就該地區病毒的行為而言，仍然存在一定程度的不確定性。

So things are still volatile, as Pedro mentioned.

因此，正如佩德羅所說，事情仍然不穩定。

But as of today, for the second half, we could see a sort of the same trend that we're seeing sort of the first -- second half -- quarter into the second half as well.

但截至今天，對於下半年，我們可以看到一種與我們在上半年——下半年——進入下半年的趨勢相同的趨勢。

But that's, again, we have to just really be mindful that it is the picture that we have today.

但這就是我們今天所擁有的畫面。

Your next question is from the line of Stephen Trent with Citi.

您的下一個問題來自花旗銀行的斯蒂芬·特倫特（Stephen Trent）。

Just 1 or 2 quick ones for me.

對我來說只有 1 或 2 個快速的。

I was intrigued, Pedro, you mentioned the kind of inability of [Miami] to do point-to-point, especially in that region.

我很感興趣，佩德羅，你提到了 [邁阿密] 無法做到點對點，尤其是在那個地區。

But what sort of competitive trends or opportunities are you seeing for Wingo?

但是，您認為 Wingo 有哪些競爭趨勢或機會？

And then the second question, if you could just refresh my memory.

然後是第二個問題，如果你能刷新我的記憶。

You guys were running -- have been running 4 daily flight banks, and you're going to 6 by the end of June, if I heard that correctly?

你們正在運行——已經運行了 4 個每日航班銀行，如果我沒聽錯的話，到 6 月底你們將運行 6 個？

Yes, that is correct.

對，那是正確的。

I'll start with the second question.

我將從第二個問題開始。

So we've operated a 6-bank hub since. ..

所以我們從那時起就經營了一個 6 銀行中心。 ..

2011.

2011 年。

Yes.

是的。

Since 2011, we've been operating on 6 banks.

自 2011 年以來，我們已在 6 家銀行開展業務。

We've obviously reduced all of that since the pandemic started.

自大流行開始以來，我們顯然已經減少了所有這些。

But we're going back in June.

但我們要在六月回去。

By the end of June, we'll be back at 6 banks, or at least, that's our intention, which will give us a lot more flexibility in putting together a better network for scheduling flights in a more efficient and effective way.

到 6 月底，我們將回到 6 家銀行，或者至少，這是我們的意圖，這將為我們提供更大的靈活性，以建立一個更好的網絡，以更高效和有效的方式安排航班。

So it's not that, that's going to drive our growth, but it will drive a better schedule and better rotation of aircraft for the remaining of the year.

因此，這並不是要推動我們的增長，而是會在今年剩下的時間裡推動更好的時間表和更好的飛機輪換。

And then in terms of Wingo.

然後就Wingo而言。

So Wingo started pre-pandemic with 4 737-800s and is now operating 6 737-800s.

因此，Wingo 在大流行前開始使用 4 737-800，現在正在運行 6 737-800。

So we've actually increased capacity by about 50% since the pandemic started and have opened a few new domestic and international markets.

因此，自大流行開始以來，我們實際上已將產能增加了約 50%，並開闢了一些新的國內和國際市場。

So they're still affected by the pandemic.

所以他們仍然受到大流行的影響。

Colombia, of course, is still affected, even though domestic markets have recuperated a little bit better in international market.

當然，哥倫比亞仍然受到影響，儘管國內市場在國際市場上有所恢復。

But Wingo did see an opportunity to strengthen their network, and they've done so.

但 Wingo 確實看到了加強他們網絡的機會，而且他們已經這樣做了。

Your next question is from the line of Pablo Monsivais with Barclays.

您的下一個問題來自巴克萊銀行的 Pablo Monsivais。

First, having this kind of a -- a little early to tell, but can you please provide some color on the path to recover your profitability levels after COVID?

首先，有這種情況 - 說起來有點早，但您能否為在 COVID 之後恢復盈利水平的道路提供一些顏色？

How should we expect yields to perform in light of lower corporate demand and perhaps with weaker FX and higher oil prices?

鑑於企業需求下降以及外匯疲軟和油價上漲，我們應該如何預期收益率？

How are you going to pivot from low margins to the margin that you have pre-COVID?

您將如何從低利潤率轉向 COVID 之前的利潤率？

Yes, Pablo, this is Jose here.

是的，巴勃羅，這是何塞。

So I would say that in -- we have to take a basis on where do we think -- what's the path to sort of bring our revenues -- our unit revenues from the place where they are today into a lower dilution and how we will match our capacity to sort of that revenue environment.

所以我想說的是——我們必須以我們認為的基礎——什麼樣的途徑才能帶來我們的收入——我們的單位收入從今天的位置進入較低的稀釋度，以及我們將如何使我們的能力與那種收入環境相匹配。

So I think that, if we assume that, in the medium term, our unit revenue dilution is sort of in the mid-teens, we could reach an operating P&L breakeven at 60% of our pre-COVID capacity.

因此，我認為，如果我們假設在中期內，我們的單位收入稀釋度在十幾歲左右，我們可以在 COVID 前產能的 60% 時達到運營損益平衡。

And I think that, taking that a further step, if we were to assume unit revenues being at their pre-COVID levels, we could reach our pre-COVID level of operating margins in the teens at a much lower capacity than we had -- than the pre-COVID-19 levels.

而且我認為，更進一步，如果我們假設單位收入處於 COVID 之前的水平，我們可以以比我們低得多的產能達到我們在青少年時期的營業利潤率水平——高於 COVID-19 之前的水平。

So we could be at maybe 60% to 70% of our pre-COVID capacity.

因此，我們可能會達到 COVID 前產能的 60% 到 70%。

Assuming a zero revenue dilution, we will be achieving our pre-COVID sort of mid-teen operating margin levels.

假設收入稀釋為零，我們將達到我們在 COVID 之前的那種青少年中期營業利潤率水平。

So that's, I mean, just to give you some of the framework where we are at.

所以，我的意思是，只是為了給你一些我們所處的框架。

And of course, that's a function of all the efficiencies that we're working in, in terms of our costs going forward.

當然，就我們未來的成本而言，這是我們正在努力提高的所有效率的函數。

And Pablo, I'll add to that.

還有巴勃羅，我會補充一點。

You asked for some color.

你要了一些顏色。

So a lot of the work we've put in since the pandemic started, to make the company more cost-efficient, is with the new reality that you referred to, in our mind.

因此，自大流行開始以來，我們為使公司更具成本效益而進行的許多工作，在我們看來都是針對您提到的新現實。

So there's going to be less business traffic for a while.

因此，一段時間內的業務流量將會減少。

Yields are going to be affected.

產量將受到影響。

But if we can deliver lower costs, which is our intention, then we'll be able to have the same success as before, or even more, at a yield -- at a revenue dilution or a yield dilution over pre-pandemic.

但是，如果我們能夠提供更低的成本，這是我們的意圖，那麼我們將能夠取得與以前一樣的成功，甚至更多，在收益上——在收入稀釋或在大流行前的收益稀釋下。

Your next question is from the line of Duane Pfennigwerth with Evercore.

您的下一個問題來自 Duane Pfennigwerth 與 Evercore 的對話。

This is actually Ray on for Duane.

這實際上是杜安的雷。

As you look across the -- as you look across your portfolio markets in light of travel restrictions and reopenings, which are getting better and easier to predict and which are harder to plan as compared to the 1Q commentary that you laid out earlier in your press release?

當您查看 - 根據旅行限制和重新開放查看您的投資組合市場時，與您之前在媒體上發布的第一季度評論相比，這些市場變得更好、更容易預測、更難計劃發布？

You mean in terms of markets?

你是說市場方面的嗎？

In terms of restrictions and markets.

在限制和市場方面。

Yes, it's really hard to predict...

是的，真的很難預測……

Yes, if you may, in terms of countries, and just kind of enough to understand, yes.

是的，如果你可以的話，就國家而言，並且足以理解，是的。

Yes.

是的。

So right now, for example, there are very strict restrictions in places such as Argentina, Chile, Venezuela, Cuba, even some in Panama for South American travelers, not flight restrictions.

所以現在，例如，阿根廷、智利、委內瑞拉、古巴等地，甚至在巴拿馬的一些地方，對南美旅客都有非常嚴格的限制，而不是航班限制。

But then these other countries I've mentioned, in most of them, flights are actually restricted.

但是我提到的這些其他國家，在大多數國家中，航班實際上是受到限制的。

So it's anyone's guess when those restrictions will be lifted.

因此，任何人都在猜測何時取消這些限制。

They will be lifted, of course.

當然，他們會被解除。

They will control the virus.

他們將控制病毒。

Things will get better.

事情會變得更好。

We know that, but it's very difficult to know that's going to happen in July and September, or who knows.

我們知道這一點，但很難知道這會在 7 月和 9 月發生，或者誰知道呢。

And in many cases, those are new restrictions that were not in place at the end of last year.

在許多情況下，這些都是去年底沒有實施的新限制。

So -- and there could be other countries enforcing new restrictions as things change.

所以——隨著情況的變化，可能會有其他國家實施新的限制。

But I would say that, directionally, I think, even though there's like something like a third wave in many countries of the virus, I think, directionally, we're going in the right direction in terms of vaccination rates and travel demand and getting things under control.

但我想說的是，在方向上，我認為，即使在許多國家出現類似第三波病毒的情況，我認為，在方向上，我們在疫苗接種率和旅行需求方面正朝著正確的方向前進。事情在掌控之中。

And if I can just sneak one follow-up here.

如果我可以在這裡偷偷跟進。

I appreciate you giving us the deliveries for the balance of the year.

感謝您為我們提供今年餘下時間的交貨。

But could you also maybe give us some of the corresponding CapEx around that and also the CapEx and deliveries for '22?

但是您能否也給我們一些相應的資本支出以及 22 年的資本支出和交付？

And as related, what do you think the balance between these and owned would be?

與此相關的是，您認為這些與擁有之間的平衡是什麼？

Yes, Ray, the CapEx for 2021, including the airplanes that we were already taking delivery of, so talking about full year total CapEx, it's going to be around $450 million.

是的，雷，2021 年的資本支出，包括我們已經交付的飛機，所以談到全年的總資本支出，它將約為 4.5 億美元。

And that's -- most of the aircraft, there's a portion of it that is cash CapEx that is associated with maintenance events and IP investments, et cetera.

這就是 - 大多數飛機，其中一部分是與維護事件和 IP 投資等相關的現金資本支出。

That's around $50 million out of that $450 million.

在這 4.5 億美元中，這大約是 5000 萬美元。

And then for next year, you could assume that it's going to be between $350 million to $400 million total CapEx again on the table, including aircraft and for another type of CapEx.

然後對於明年，您可以假設總資本支出將再次出現在 3.5 億美元至 4 億美元之間，包括飛機和另一種類型的資本支出。

So that's basically where we're at.

所以這基本上就是我們所處的位置。

You had another follow-up on that.

您對此進行了另一次跟進。

What was the second question that you asked, Ray?

雷，你問的第二個問題是什麼？

All right.

好的。

We'll get in touch with you to answer the other question that you had.

我們將與您聯繫以回答您的其他問題。

All right.

好的。

I guess we're going to the next question.

我想我們要進入下一個問題了。

Your next question is from the line of Mike Linenberg with Deutsche Bank.

您的下一個問題來自德意志銀行的 Mike Linenberg。

Jose, Pedro -- Joe, my one question is just a modeling question here.

Jose, Pedro -- Joe，我的一個問題在這裡只是一個建模問題。

Obviously, the tax is basically zero.

顯然，稅收基本為零。

And I'm just curious whether or not have you taken a valuation allowance against your deferred tax asset to the extent that now you're not going to be booking any tax credits?

我只是好奇你是否對你的遞延所得稅資產進行了估值減免，以至於現在你不會預訂任何稅收抵免？

Is that what's going on forward?

這就是正在發生的事情嗎？

Or was this just -- there's some sort of anomaly or timing difference in this quarter, and next quarter, we should just assume it moves back to 10%?

或者這只是 - 本季度存在某種異常或時間差異，下個季度，我們應該假設它回到 10%？

Yes.

是的。

Yes, it's a timing -- the specific line that we put into the fourth quarter was a loss carryforward that got booked.

是的，這是一個時機——我們在第四季度設定的具體線路是已入賬的虧損結轉。

That usually gets done at the moment where we have a clear visibility about the performance of the entire year, so it's done towards the end of the year.

這通常是在我們清楚地了解全年的表現時完成的，所以它是在年底完成的。

So it's just simply timing.

所以這只是簡單的時機。

So the difference that we saw in the tax line in this quarter was truly timing.

因此，我們在本季度稅項中看到的差異確實是時機。

And it would depend on if there's further sort of tax credits or tax lost or forced that we declare, depending on the performance of the entire year.

這將取決於我們是否有進一步的稅收抵免或稅收損失或強制申報，具體取決於全年的表現。

And they will be usually be put in, in the fourth quarter.

他們通常會在第四季度投入使用。

So that's kind of how that works here.

這就是這裡的運作方式。

Your next question is from the line of Savi Syth with Raymond James.

您的下一個問題來自 Savi Syth 和 Raymond James。

I'm just kind of curious relative to your kind of what you're seeing from a selling standpoint today.

我只是對你今天從銷售角度看到的那種東西感到好奇。

How much of your kind of current ATL is in terms of vouchers?

就代金券而言，您目前的 ATL 有多少？

And kind of what percent of that -- what you're selling today is in the kind of the form of vouchers?

還有百分之多少——你今天賣的是代金券的形式？

And somewhat related to that is, kind of curious if you're seeing any change in business demand recovery.

與此相關的是，如果您看到業務需求復甦的任何變化，您會感到好奇。

Yes.

是的。

In terms of ATL, normally, the vast majority of the growth that we saw -- I think we had a growth in the quarter of about $5 million in the ATL, and it's purely -- I would say, most of it is cash coming in.

就 ATL 而言，通常情況下，我們看到的絕大多數增長——我認為我們在本季度的 ATL 增長了約 500 萬美元，這純粹是——我會說，大部分是現金到來在。

So we have the majority of it is cash.

所以我們有大部分是現金。

There is a portion, but it's a minor portion, it's a subsidiary vouchers and the like for future travel.

有一部分，不過是小部分，是以後出行的附屬代金券之類的。

The majority of it is actual cash coming in, yes.

其中大部分是實際的現金進來，是的。

And we're not seeing a significant recovery in business demand.

而且我們沒有看到業務需求顯著復甦。

Of course, there is more business demand than some months ago, but nothing significant yet.

當然，與幾個月前相比，業務需求有所增加，但還沒有什麼大不了的。

It's mostly VFR and leisure.

它主要是VFR和休閒。

And Jose, just -- is the ATL mix, how much of the ATL is vouchers today?

Jose，只是- ATL 組合，今天有多少ATL 是代金券？

I think it's less than 10% growth, at most, yes.

我認為它最多只有不到 10% 的增長，是的。

10% to 15%.

10% 到 15%。

Your next question is from the line of Alejandro Zamacona with Crédit Suisse.

您的下一個問題來自 Crédit Suisse 的 Alejandro Zamacona。

Just a question in terms of the traffic recovery and the city pairs or routes.

只是關於交通恢復和城市對或路線的問題。

So which markets continue closed at this point?

那麼此時哪些市場繼續關閉？

And what's the expectation to opening -- open them?

對打開的期望是什麼——打開它們？

And perhaps, is the expected recovery maybe more driven by the reopening of routes, or by increasing capacity of -- or at the existing routes?

或許，預期的複蘇可能更多是由重新開放航線推動的，還是通過增加現有航線或現有航線的運力？

Yes.

是的。

So I mean most markets are open, but some, as I mentioned before, are very restricted in terms of how many frequencies we can operate.

所以我的意思是大多數市場都是開放的，但正如我之前提到的，有些市場在我們可以操作的頻率方面非常有限。

So markets such as Venezuela, Argentina, Chile and others I had mentioned before, they have restrictions that don't allow us to operate more than a few frequencies per week.

所以像委內瑞拉、阿根廷、智利和我之前提到的其他市場，他們有限制，不允許我們每週運行超過幾個頻率。

Whereas before, we would have had multiple frequencies per day, and that's impacting demand.

而以前，我們每天會有多個頻率，這會影響需求。

And there are also other travel restrictions around the region.

該地區還有其他旅行限制。

In the markets that are open, like the U.S. and the Caribbean, for example, we're seeing a stronger demand than in the restricted markets, but it would be expected.

例如，在美國和加勒比海等開放市場，我們看到的需求比受限市場更強，但這是意料之中的。

Your next question comes from the line of Joseph DeNardi with Stifel.

您的下一個問題來自 Joseph DeNardi 與 Stifel 的對話。

Pedro, you mentioned in your prepared remarks that you think fewer markets will be able to support point-to-point post-COVID.

佩德羅，您在準備好的評論中提到，您認為能夠支持點對點後 COVID 的市場將減少。

Can you just elaborate on that?

你能詳細說明一下嗎？

Kind of why do you think that?

你為什麼這麼認為？

Well, yes.

嗯，是。

Our hub has always distinguished itself by connecting a large number of small city pairs.

我們的樞紐一直以連接大量小城市對而著稱。

Over 70% of the city pairs we connect have less than 20 passengers per day each way.

我們連接的超過 70% 的城市對每天的單程乘客人數少於 20 人。

Post-pandemic, we expect city pairs that have enough traffic, that don't fall maybe within that 70%.

大流行後，我們預計有足夠流量的城市對可能不會落在這 70% 之內。

But even some that do, that pre-pandemic had enough traffic for nonstop service.

但即使有一些這樣做，大流行前的流量也足以提供不間斷的服務。

And I must say, in every city pair, I'm just saying some additional city pairs will need a hub.

我必須說，在每個城市對中，我只是說一些額外的城市對需要一個樞紐。

And Panama is the best-placed hub to serve those markets.

巴拿馬是服務這些市場的最佳樞紐。

So we think there will be additional opportunities to strengthen the Hub of the Americas.

因此，我們認為將有更多的機會來加強美洲中心。

And it could be, again, city pairs that can only be served through Panama, whereas before, they had nonstop flights.

再一次，它可能是只能通過巴拿馬服務的城市對，而以前，他們有直飛航班。

Or city pairs that will be able to sustain much less nonstop capacity than pre-pandemic.

或者能夠維持比大流行前更少的直飛容量的城市對。

And of course, that will change over time.

當然，這會隨著時間而改變。

But coming out of this crisis, I think the Hub of the Americas in Panama's going to be in an even stronger position to serve all those markets.

但從這場危機中走出來，我認為巴拿馬的美洲中心將處於更有利的地位，為所有這些市場提供服務。

Okay.

好的。

That's helpful.

這很有幫助。

And then, Jose, maybe just following up on Pablo's question.

然後，何塞，也許只是跟進巴勃羅的問題。

Can you remind us how you're thinking about kind of cost structure post-COVID?

您能否提醒我們您是如何考慮 COVID 後的成本結構的？

I think you had previously said you could get back to pre-COVID CASM ex, with 80% of pre-COVID capacity.

我想你之前說過你可以回到 COVID 之前的 CASM ex，擁有 80% 的 COVID 之前的容量。

Is that still how you're thinking about it?

你還是這麼想的嗎？

And then just a clarification on the ending the year with 83 aircraft, does that include stored or parked aircraft?

然後只是澄清一下年底有 83 架飛機，這包括存放或停放的飛機嗎？

Yes.

是的。

So the first question, Joe, is we think that we'll get sub-6 CASM by the time that we are back to pre-COVID capacity.

所以第一個問題，喬，我們是否認為在我們恢復到 COVID 之前的容量時，我們將獲得低於 6 的 CASM。

And I think we'll be back to our pre-COVID CASM by the time that we're around 80%.

而且我認為當我們達到 80% 左右時，我們將回到 COVID 之前的 CASM。

Yes, that's still very much our target, and we're relatively confident about that target.

是的，這仍然是我們的目標，我們對這個目標相對有信心。

And we've been making a lot of efforts in terms of contract renegotiations and savings and overhead and the fleet moves that we've made.

我們在重新談判合同、節省開支和管理費用以及我們所做的機隊移動方面做出了很多努力。

So that's still very much in our radar.

所以這仍然是我們的雷達。

And then in terms of the...

然後就...

Yes, the 83 aircraft at the end of the year.

是的，年底的83架飛機。

Yes, all total aircraft, including the stored aircraft, yes, Joe, as Pedro said.

是的，所有飛機，包括存儲的飛機，是的，喬，正如佩德羅所說。

And we said -- yes, by the way, Joe, I mentioned in our script that we have, right now, 16 airplanes that are under long-term storage.

我們說——是的，順便說一句，喬，我在我們的腳本中提到，我們現在有 16 架飛機處於長期儲存狀態。

And they're included, of course, in the 81 that we have right now.

當然，它們也包含在我們現在擁有的 81 個中。

By the end of the year, we'll end up at 83 aircraft, and we'll -- we expect right now to have 7 under long-term storage by then, including those 83.

到今年年底，我們最終將擁有 83 架飛機，我們現在預計到那時將有 7 架長期儲存，包括那 83 架。

So we will activate a subset of those 16 aircraft that we have right now.

因此，我們將激活我們現在擁有的這 16 架飛機中的一部分。

Our last question comes from the line of Helane D. Becker with Cowen.

我們的最後一個問題來自 Cowen 的 Helane D. Becker。

As you think about adding cities back to the network, how will you think about adding them back?

當您考慮將城市添加回網絡時，您將如何考慮將它們添加回來？

Will it be a focus of VFR or leisure traffic, cities first?

它會成為 VFR 或休閒交通的焦點，城市優先嗎？

Or how should we think about the shift in mix away from business travel and to more leisure and VFR for now?

或者，我們現在應該如何看待從商務旅行轉向更多休閒和 VFR 的轉變？

So yes, an interesting question, because the cities we've added are, of course, our stronger cities or stronger destination.

所以，是的，一個有趣的問題，因為我們添加的城市當然是我們更強大的城市或更強大的目的地。

And those, in many cases, include a significant business travel component pre-pandemic.

在許多情況下，這些都包括大流行前的重要商務旅行組成部分。

But we're adding a lot fewer frequencies than before.

但是我們添加的頻率比以前少了很多。

So strong business markets like Panama, Bogotá, for example, we're serving a few times per day and pre-pandemic would have been 7 or 8x.

例如，像巴拿馬、波哥大這樣強大的商業市場，我們每天提供幾次服務，而在大流行之前，可能是 7 或 8 倍。

So even though those are strong business markets, frequencies are way down because of that.

因此，即使這些是強大的商業市場，頻率也會因此而下降。

But we have opened all those markets because they just, as mentioned before, happened to be stronger routes overall.

但是我們已經開放了所有這些市場，因為正如前面提到的，它們恰好是總體上更強大的航線。

The ones that we're going to be opening gradually from here to the end of the year and into 2022 usually have, actually, a high leisure and VFR component, but are just much smaller markets than the others.

實際上，我們將從這裡到今年年底和 2022 年逐步開放的那些通常具有較高的休閒和 VFR 組件，但只是比其他市場小得多。

So that's driving the decision more than the mix itself.

所以這比混合本身更能推動決策。

Okay.

好的。

That's very helpful.

這很有幫助。

And then the other question I had was, as you're thinking about getting back to profitability, how should we think about the return of capital plans?

然後我的另一個問題是，當您考慮恢復盈利時，我們應該如何考慮資本計劃的回報？

Because for a long time until the pandemic, your dividend was an important component of that.

因為在大流行之前的很長一段時間裡，你的股息是其中的一個重要組成部分。

And obviously, with the pandemic, that's just not the case right now.

顯然，在大流行的情況下，現在情況並非如此。

So how should we think about returning capital in '20 -- let's say, 1 year, 1.5 years from now, when maybe things are back to some level of the next normal?

那麼，我們應該如何考慮在 20 年返還資本——比如說，從現在開始的 1 年、1.5 年，屆時情況可能會恢復到下一個正常水平？

Yes.

是的。

So we haven't changed our dividend policy.

所以我們沒有改變我們的股息政策。

We're just missing the profit part of it.

我們只是錯過了其中的利潤部分。

And even though I want to talk officially, because we have to see how things develop, but I would expect that once we have the profit component, the dividend policy will kick in.

儘管我想正式談談，因為我們必須看看事情如何發展，但我預計一旦我們有了利潤部分，股息政策就會生效。

We have strong liquidity.

我們擁有強大的流動性。

We're in a strong overall position.

我們處於強勢的整體地位。

So that's what I would expect going forward.

所以這就是我對未來的期望。

There are no further questions.

沒有進一步的問題。

Okay.

好的。

Okay, thank you all.

好的，謝謝大家。

This then concludes our earnings call.

然後結束我們的收益電話會議。

Thank you for being with us.

感謝您與我們在一起。

Thank you for your continued support.

感謝您一如既往的支持。

You know where to find us.

你知道在哪裡可以找到我們。

Please have a great day.

請有一個美好的一天。

Thank you.

謝謝你。

Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for your participation.

女士們，先生們，感謝你們的參與。

That concludes the presentation.

演講到此結束。

You may disconnect, and have a wonderful day.

您可能會斷開連接，並度過美好的一天。