科蒂集團 (COTY) 2025 Q4 法說會逐字稿

完整原文

使用警語:中文譯文來源為 Google 翻譯,僅供參考,實際內容請以英文原文為主

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Good morning and good afternoon, everyone. My name is Chelsea, and I'll be your conference operator today. At this time, I would like to welcome everyone to Coty's Fourth Quarter Fiscal 2025 Question-and-Answer conference call.

    大家早安,下午好。我叫切爾西,今天我將擔任您的會議主持人。現在,我歡迎大家參加科蒂 2025 財年第四季問答電話會議。

  • As a reminder, this conference call is being recorded today, August 21, 2025, at 8:00 AM Eastern Time or 2:00 PM Central European Time. Please note that on August 20 at approximately 4:30 PM Eastern Time or 10:30 PM. Central European time, Coty issued a press release and prepared remarks webcast, which can be found on its Investor Relations website.

    提醒一下,本次電話會議將於今天(2025 年 8 月 21 日)美國東部時間上午 8:00 或歐洲中部時間下午 2:00 錄製。請注意,8 月 20 日東部時間下午 4:30 左右或晚上 10:30。歐洲中部時間,科蒂發布了一份新聞稿,並準備了評論網路廣播,可在其投資者關係網站上找到。

  • On today's call are Sue Nabi, Chief Executive Officer; and Laurent Mercier, Chief Financial Officer. I would like to remind you that many of the comments today may contain forward-looking statements. Please refer to Coty's earnings release and the reports filed with the SEC where the company lists factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from these forward-looking statements.

    參加今天電話會議的有執行長 Sue Nabi 和財務長 Laurent Mercier。我想提醒大家,今天的許多評論可能包含前瞻性陳述。請參閱科蒂的收益報告和向美國證券交易委員會提交的報告,其中公司列出了可能導致實際結果與這些前瞻性陳述有重大差異的因素。

  • In addition, except where noted, the discussion of Coty's financial results and Coty's expectations reflect certain adjustments as specified in the non-GAAP financial measures section of the company's release.

    此外,除非另有說明,對科蒂財務表現和科蒂預期的討論反映了公司新聞稿中非公認會計準則財務指標部分中指定的某些調整。

  • With that, we will now open the line for questions.

    現在,我們將開放問答熱線。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • (Operator Instructions)

    (操作員指示)

  • Olivia Tong, Raymond James.

    奧利維亞唐,雷蒙德詹姆斯。

  • Olivia Tong - Analyst

    Olivia Tong - Analyst

  • Thanks. Good morning. So clearly, there's a lot going on with respect to the macros as well as the category. And you gave a pretty detailed guide for Q1 and Q2 on sales, EBITDA and EPS, but kept it pretty open-ended for the second half.

    謝謝。早安.因此顯然,關於巨集和類別有很多事情要做。您對第一季和第二季的銷售額、EBITDA 和 EPS 給出了非常詳細的指導,但對下半年的預測相當開放。

  • So I wanted to understand a little bit about if you could provide a little bit more detail on the second half? What initiatives go into place, what hit versus just the easing comps, your thought process around the magnitude of improvement in the second half versus the first half and the key drivers of that?

    所以我想了解一下您是否可以提供關於下半部分的更多細節?採取了哪些舉措,與寬鬆政策相比受到了哪些衝擊,您認為下半年與上半年相比改善的幅度如何,以及主要驅動因素是什麼?

  • Laurent Mercier - Chief Financial Officer

    Laurent Mercier - Chief Financial Officer

  • Yeah, absolutely. Thank you, Olivia, for your questions. So indeed, I think it's very important indeed that we give you very indications for Q1 and Q2. And we have this visibility, and we shared very precise guidance. And indeed, as we highlighted, we are seeing that we are still in the phase of retailers' inventory reduction, which should last till the end of calendar year '25, and that's why we are giving this sequential improvement in Q1 and Q2 despite still negative.

    是的,絕對是如此。謝謝奧莉維亞的提問。因此,我認為為您提供有關 Q1 和 Q2 的指示確實非常重要。我們擁有這種可見性,並且我們分享了非常精確的指導。事實上,正如我們所強調的,我們看到我們仍然處於零售商減少庫存的階段,這應該會持續到2025年年底,這就是為什麼儘管第一季度和第二季度仍然是負面的,但我們仍然給出了連續改善的結果。

  • So at the same time, as we indicated, we are seeing the category, especially in prestige fragrance, but also in mass fragrance remaining very healthy, I mean, low to- mid-single digit. And we are seeing also our sell-out performing well in the key markets.

    因此,與此同時,正如我們所指出的,我們看到該類別,特別是高檔香水,大眾香水仍然保持非常健康,我的意思是,低到中等個位數。我們也看到我們的產品在主要市場的銷售表現良好。

  • So now what it means is that the plan is that we are expecting that end of calendar year '25, this retailer inventory headwind will end and then we're entering calendar year '26 or H2 fiscal '26 in a very healthy manner where our sell-in will coincide with our sell-out.

    所以現在的計劃是,我們預計到 25 日曆年年底,零售商庫存逆風將會結束,然後我們將以非常健康的方式進入 26 日曆年或 26 財年下半年,我們的銷售將與銷售同步。

  • And this is supported by the market, the healthy market, and our sell-out is supported also by very strong innovations that we just shared during the presentation and which will get full speed in the H2. So this is really the algorithm.

    這是由市場、健康市場所支持的,我們的銷售也得到了我們在演示中分享的非常強大的創新的支持,這些創新將在下半年全速發展。這確實是演算法。

  • Now indeed, we didn't give more precise numbers on H2 because as you say, there is high volatility. I mean there are a lot of macro movements. But for sure, I mean, I can tell you with a high level of confidence that indeed our H2 will be back to growth once indeed, we are going through this H1. So that's really the redoing and really the logic on the top line.

    確實,我們沒有給出 H2 的更精確的數字,因為正如您所說,波動性很高。我的意思是有很多宏觀運動。但可以肯定的是,我可以非常自信地告訴你,一旦我們經歷了上半年,下半年確實會恢復成長。所以這確實是重做,也是最重要的邏輯。

  • On EBITDA, that's also a similar approach, okay? So we are really giving very precise indication on the Q1 and the Q2. Then on H2 with the full confidence with top line being back to growth and also all the actions, being at full speed will really bring us to positive EBITDA growth in the H2.

    對 EBITDA 來說,這也是一種類似的方法,好嗎?因此,我們確實對 Q1 和 Q2 給出了非常精確的指示。然後,在下半年,我們對營收恢復成長充滿信心,並且採取所有行動,全速前進將真正為我們帶來下半年的正 EBITDA 成長。

  • So which means that our EBITDA full year would be above $1 billion. I mean the major gap that we are seeing in EBITDA in the full year is driven by tariff, in a way. So if we exclude tariffs on the full year, our EBITDA would just be slightly negative, but indeed the major headwind is the tariff.

    這意味著我們全年的 EBITDA 將超過 10 億美元。我的意思是,我們看到的全年 EBITDA 的巨大差距在某種程度上是由關稅造成的。因此,如果我們排除全年的關稅,我們的 EBITDA 將會略微為負,但主要的阻力實際上是關稅。

  • And last but not least, I mean our free cash flow will grow in fiscal '26. So this is really the big picture I can give you to explain to you really where we are we built our guidance this way, and it's also really to give you that it's very built with very strong facts analysis and again, very strong confidence in the H2.

    最後但同樣重要的一點是,我們的自由現金流將在 26 財年增長。因此,這實際上是我可以向您提供的總體情況,向您解釋我們真正在哪里以這種方式建立了我們的指導,並且它實際上也是向您展示了它是建立在非常有力的事實分析基礎上的,並且對 H2 非常有信心。

  • Sue Nabi - Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Sue Nabi - Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • And to add to Laurent, this is Sue speaking. To add to Laurent comment. One thing very important, indeed, there is the launches of H1, specifically the HUGO BOSS Beyond bottle, which is starting as probably the biggest launch of the company's history, even bigger than what we did with but there is a second blockbuster launch happening in the second half of the year also.

    補充一下 Laurent,我是 Sue。補充 Laurent 的評論。確實有一件非常重要的事情,那就是 H1 的發布,特別是 HUGO BOSS Beyond 瓶,這可能是該公司歷史上最大的一次發布,甚至比我們之前做的還要大,但今年下半年還會有第二次重磅發布。

  • So this is a second element to add. And the third element is that the perfume plan of the company with almost a dozen brands of the company going into this area with clearly innovative formulations that I could say a little bit more later maybe are honestly going to represent something that could be like one extra launch added to the pipeline of the company if you take them all together. So this is the full image of H2, as Laurent just described it.

    所以這是第二個要加入的元素。第三個要素是公司的香水計劃,該公司有近十幾個品牌進入這個領域,這些品牌具有明顯的創新配方,我稍後可以再多說一點,也許真的會代表某種東西,如果你把它們全部加在一起,可能會給公司的銷售渠道增加一個額外的發布。這就是 H2 的完整圖像,正如 Laurent 剛才所描述的。

  • Olivia Tong - Analyst

    Olivia Tong - Analyst

  • Got it. That's helpful. Since you touched on it, I do want to talk a little bit about Consumer Beauty. First, around the mass color side. Just your commentary from last night's prepared remarks around the evolution of investment levels, particularly in mass color and how you're thinking about levels of investment this year versus last year and then going forward?

    知道了。這很有幫助。既然您提到了這一點,我確實想談談消費者美容。首先,圍繞大眾色彩方面。您能否就昨晚準備好的關於投資水平演變的評論進行評論,特別是大眾色彩,以及您如何看待今年與去年以及未來的投資水平?

  • And then on mass fragrances, you just mentioned that, that's a bright spot. How do you think about this business over time, like both as a percentage of sales, the opportunity to grow this, the ability to differentiate relative to others in the category and effectively, who the audience is for that? Thank you very much.

    然後關於大眾香水,您剛才提到了,這是一個亮點。您如何看待這項業務的長期發展,例如銷售額的百分比、成長機會、相對於同類業務進行區分的能力,以及這項業務的受眾是誰?非常感謝。

  • Sue Nabi - Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Sue Nabi - Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • So yeah, on the first part, Olivia, which is around how we are going to invest behind our color cosmetics category. Indeed, I think the tone is clear. This is the year of increasing the profitability of this business, and in fact, this was not just a decision driven by the P&L, even if the P&L is clearly telling us to go in this direction.

    是的,奧利維亞,第一部分是關於我們將如何投資我們的彩色化妝品類別。確實,我認為語氣很明確。這是提高該業務盈利能力的一年,事實上,這不僅僅是由損益表驅動的決定,即使損益表明確告訴我們要朝這個方向發展。

  • But it's also driven by what we learned throughout the 2025 year, where we realized that maybe, I would say, the move from traditional media to mainly advocacy, marketing was a little bit too radical for a brand like CoverGirl. So what we are realizing is that this market and including the dynamics of the markets are today hurt by, and this is interesting to hear, innovation fatigue, this is something we hear, and simplification of routines.

    但這也是由我們在 2025 年學到的東西所驅動的,我們意識到,對於像 CoverGirl 這樣的品牌來說,從傳統媒體轉向以宣傳、行銷為主的轉變可能有點過於激進。因此,我們意識到,這個市場以及市場的動態如今受到了損害,有趣的是,我們聽到的是創新疲勞,以及例行程序的簡化。

  • These are the things we learned from the recent studies we have made. I think a lot of loyal consumers above 30 years old consumers got lost in translation given the complexity of this category today. A lot of people don't know the difference between an ink, between a better, between a balm, between a liquid lip color, between a lip color and the list goes on.

    這些是我們從最近的研究中了解到的內容。我認為,鑑於當今這一類別的複雜性,許多 30 歲以上的忠實消費者在翻譯中迷失了方向。很多人不知道墨水、唇膏、護唇膏、液體唇彩、唇彩等之間的差異。

  • So there is a kind of innovation state, and we used the influencer marketing tool to talk to everyone. The decision we have made is to dedicate the, I would say, most sophisticated innovative products to the youngest who are those who understand this very well and easily get into the complexity of the category while coming back to traditional advertising when it comes to categories that are the biggest, by the way, in the color cosmetics category such as mascaras and foundations, which are, by the way, the strengthen of our brands.

    所以有一種創新狀態,我們利用影響力行銷工具與每個人對話。我們所做的決定是,將最精緻的創新產品專門提供給最年輕的群體,因為這些人非常了解這一點,並且很容易進入這個類別的複雜性,而當涉及到最大的類別時,則回到傳統廣告,順便說一下,在彩色化妝品類別中,例如睫毛膏和粉底,這些都是我們品牌的優勢。

  • And we believe that this way of doing will allow us to invest less in absolute value and in a very ROI-driven way. So this is the way I would explain the shift that's driven by consumer understanding loyal consumers that were mistreated in a way for the last two years by everyone, including us, but also P&L wise, as I explained earlier.

    我們相信,這種方式將使我們能夠減少絕對價值的投資,並以投資回報率為導向。因此,這就是我對這種轉變的解釋,這種轉變是由消費者理解忠誠消費者所驅動的,這些消費者在過去兩年中受到了包括我們在內的所有人的不公正對待,但正如我之前所解釋的那樣,在損益方面也受到了不公正的對待。

  • Now when it comes to the fragrance, the mass fragrance category, this is more or less 7% of the net revenues of the company. It's been growing nicely. The market is growing everywhere around the world. And this is part of what we used to call the fragrance index. But I think today, we are more into what we call the phenomenon, which is the economy of treats.

    現在說到香水,大眾香水類別,這大約占公司淨收入的 7%。它一直長得很好。世界各地的市場都在成長。這就是我們過去所說的香味指數的一部分。但我認為今天我們更關注的是我們所說的現象,即零食經濟。

  • And we see that as fragrances from $5 to $500 are becoming really the go-to destination in the beauty industry hence, I would say, the dynamism of this category. And this explains why a lot of consumers today are continuing to buy fragrances at every price level, including in mass fragrances.

    我們看到,價格從 5 美元到 500 美元的香水正在成為美容行業的熱門選擇,因此,我想說,這個類別充滿活力。這也解釋了為什麼如今許多消費者繼續購買各種價位的香水,包括大眾香水。

  • They are also diversifying the way they wear fragrances, hence, our perfume missed attack. And this category, I know you wrote recently about the profitability potentially of this category. It's for us, it's as profitable as a fragrance launch. So there is absolutely no dilution play in this game.

    他們使用香水的方式也多種多樣,因此,我們的香水錯失了機會。關於這個類別,我知道您最近寫了有關這個類別的盈利潛力的文章。對我們來說,這和推出香水一樣有利可圖。因此,這場遊戲中絕對不存在稀釋玩法。

  • And we see this game because it's a game of layering. We see this game as a purely additional. It's an $8 billion market, doubling year-on-year. And this is an area where Coty, which is the leader in fragrance at large should play in. So we are playing big.

    我們看到這個遊戲是因為這是一個分層遊戲。我們認為這個遊戲純粹是附加遊戲。這是一個價值 80 億美元的市場,年增一倍。而這正是香水產業的領導者科蒂應該涉足的領域。所以我們正在大展宏圖。

  • And we believe this is going also to help us in the second half of the year.

    我們相信這也將對我們下半年的業務有所幫助。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Susan Anderson, Canaccord Genuity.

    蘇珊安德森(Susan Anderson),Canaccord Genuity。

  • Susan Anderson - Equity Analyst

    Susan Anderson - Equity Analyst

  • Hi, good morning. Thanks for taking my question. I was wondering maybe, just to start off, if you could talk about how Prestige excluding fragrance performed and if you have any new innovation coming out in the cosmetic and skin care brands this year and then also just what investments you're making in the area as well?

    嗨,早安。感謝您回答我的問題。我想知道,也許,只是開始,您能否談談 Prestige(不包括香水)的表現如何,以及今年您在化妝品和護膚品牌方面是否有任何新的創新,然後您在該領域進行了哪些投資?

  • Sue Nabi - Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Sue Nabi - Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Yeah, good morning, Suzanne. Thank you for the question. Indeed, that's a good question because if you look at our Prestige portfolio, it's a majority of fragrances, but there is also a color cosmetics category. And this is really what explains also the counter performance in terms of sell-in, but also sell-out in Asia, mainly due to the resellers, as we like to call them today, phenomenon that is shrinking, if not totally drying in Asia between Hainan, China and Korea ecosystem.

    是的,早上好,蘇珊娜。謝謝你的提問。確實,這是一個很好的問題,因為如果你看看我們的 Prestige 產品組合,你會發現其中大部分是香水,但也有彩色化妝品類別。這也確實解釋了亞洲的銷售情況和銷售量反成長的原因,這主要是由於經銷商(我們今天喜歡這樣稱呼他們)的現象,這種現像在海南、中國和韓國的生態系統中正在萎縮,甚至完全枯竭。

  • This is really one of the key explanations of the figures counter-performance of the division while fragrances continue to grow, including in fiscal '25 year, which was one of the most difficult year we had. So this is one to explain for you.

    這確實是香水部門業績與預期相反的關鍵原因之一,而香水部門卻持續成長,包括 25 財年,這是我們經歷的最困難的一年。所以,我需要向你解釋這一點。

  • Second, now it comes to skin care. In skin care, the two biggest brands of the company are in the US and Lancaster, which is a European Chinese brand. The great news is that Lancaster is now growing super, super strongly in China. It's among the top five fastest growing brands.

    第二,現在談到皮膚護理。在保養品領域,該公司最大的兩個品牌分別是美國的蘭嘉絲汀和歐洲的中國品牌。好消息是,蘭卡斯特在中國的發展勢頭非常強勁。它是成長最快的五大品牌之一。

  • It's growing 3 times or 4 times faster than the skin care market. And it explains also our absolutely outstanding performance. I'm looking at the figures while I'm talking to you, the skin care category outperformed the market by 11% for Coty.

    它的成長速度是保養品市場的3倍或4倍。這也解釋了我們絕對出色的表現。我在和你談話的時候看了看數據,科蒂的保養品類別表現比市場高出 11%。

  • The market was around 3%, as I said, and this is driven mainly by e-com. And on e-com, it's really two legs. It's on one side, our fragrance business that is growing 6 times faster than the market rate. And our Lancaster business that is growing 40% faster than the Coty China -- than the Chinese ecosystem market. So it's really these figures that I wanted to share with you to give you a vision on prestige, excluding fragrances.

    正如我所說,市場佔有率約為 3%,這主要由電子商務推動。而在電子商務方面,它實際上是兩條腿的。一方面,我們的香水業務成長速度是市場速度的6倍。我們的蘭卡斯特業務成長速度比科蒂中國——中國生態系統市場——快 40%。因此,我真正想與你們分享的是這些數據,以便讓你們對不包括香水的聲望有一個大致的了解。

  • Susan Anderson - Equity Analyst

    Susan Anderson - Equity Analyst

  • Okay. Great. And then also, you talked about just the higher promotional environment. Maybe if you could talk a little bit about how you expect that to play out this fiscal year and what you're doing to compete in that environment? And then also, I guess, is it similar between Prestige and Mass just in terms of the promotional environment or is one area worse than the other?

    好的。偉大的。然後,您也談到了更高的促銷環境。也許您可以稍微談談您對本財年的發展預期以及您在這種環境下將採取哪些競爭措施?然後我想,就促銷環境而言,Prestige 和 Mass 是否相似,或者一個方面比另一個方面更差?

  • Laurent Mercier - Chief Financial Officer

    Laurent Mercier - Chief Financial Officer

  • Thank you, Susan. Indeed, I mean, absolutely, I mean, we are observing -- I mean now since a few months, indeed some increase of promotional activities from some of our peers. We are managing this very cautiously. And of course, that's really a strategic intention really to protect really our icons and to protect our brand. So how do we manage this?

    謝謝你,蘇珊。確實,我的意思是,絕對的,我的意思是,我們正在觀察——我的意思是幾個月以來,我們的一些同行確實增加了促銷活動。我們正在非常謹慎地處理此事。當然,這確實是一個戰略意圖,旨在保護我們的標誌和品牌。那我們該如何解決這個問題呢?

  • I mean we are very strict in this promotional policy and also on all the activities. But at the same time, we are playing -- we shared several times that we have team dedicated on what we call strategic revenue management. And this exactly is really how to expand the portfolio and come with new formats.

    我的意思是我們對這個促銷政策以及所有活動都非常嚴格。但同時,我們正在發揮作用——我們多次分享過,我們有一個專門從事所謂的策略收入管理的團隊。這正是如何擴大產品組合併推出新格式的方法。

  • I just give you one example, which is spray, spray is a segment which is really growing very fast in the US. So it's 30 milliliters, it's something that you can put in your handbag or easy to take with you. And it's also a fantastic sample, okay?

    我僅舉一個例子,噴霧,噴霧是美國成長非常快的一個領域。所以它的容量是 30 毫升,你可以把它放在手提包裡或隨身攜帶。這也是一個很棒的樣本,好嗎?

  • So we see that some consumers are going there and then when they like they go to the product. But of course, it's also more affordable, but very profitable. So that's the kind of game that we are playing and really to avoid entering this promotional gain. But also when we talk about strategic revenue management and to refer to it, if you take fragrance, I mean, the great news is that you see that fragrance.

    因此,我們看到一些消費者去那裡,然後當他們喜歡產品時,他們就會去購買。但當然,它也更便宜,但利潤卻很高。這就是我們正在玩的遊戲,實際上是為了避免獲得這種促銷收益。但是當我們談論戰略收入管理並參考它時,如果你聞到香味,我的意思是,好消息是你看到了那種香味。

  • Now you have the full range. Of course, you have the prestige price points. But you see the high end, the niche fragrance. I mean, this is the fastest-growing category. So you see that here, it's not -- it's really about the quality and the appetite from consumers.

    現在您已擁有全系列產品。當然,您擁有尊貴的價格點。但你會看到高端、小眾香水。我的意思是,這是成長最快的類別。所以你看,這裡不是——這實際上與品質和消費者的胃口有關。

  • But at the same time, you see mass fragrance is growing very fast. And so we explained also about the body mist. So in a way, we are not -- it's a point of attention, but we are not concerned because indeed, we can feed the consumer needs across the full partition.

    但同時,你會看到大眾香水正在快速成長。我們也對身體噴霧進行了解釋。所以從某種程度上來說,我們不是——這是一個關注點,但我們並不擔心,因為事實上,我們可以滿足整個分區的消費者需求。

  • Sue Nabi - Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Sue Nabi - Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Susan, just to complement on what Laurent just rightly said. If you look at the Prestige market, there is two parts that are growing the fastest, indeed, as Laurent mentioned. The niche, which is above $150 is growing by 14%, and everything under $50 is growing by 11%. These two parts of the market are the fastest-growing.

    蘇珊,我只是想補充洛朗剛才所說的話。如果你看一下高端市場,你會發現有兩個部分的成長確實最快,正如 Laurent 所提到的。150 美元以上的利基市場成長了 14%,50 美元以下的利基市場成長了 11%。這兩個市場部分是成長最快的。

  • So instead of getting in the game, which is played a lot by the competitors who are heavily exposed to the Asian Chinese ecosystem, which we don't want to enter to the same extent, we put in place the mist, perfume mist a year ago, precisely for this because we understood that for those who are looking for value, you cannot just sell the same brand with a 50% discount, you need to propose specifically for the younger consumer, other ways to increase the basket or to replace the basket with the same profitability.

    因此,我們沒有加入那些嚴重依賴亞洲華人生態系統的競爭對手所參與的競爭,我們不想以同樣的程度進入這個生態系統,而是在一年前就推出了噴霧和香水噴霧,正是為此,因為我們明白,對於那些尋求價值的人來說,你不能只以 50% 的折扣銷售同一個品牌,你需要專門針對年輕消費者提出建議,以其他盈利方式增加購物車或替換車以相同的方式。

  • So the mist we have launched, and I can give you the example of the CK mist that started earlier this summer. If you -- some of you traveled this summer, you could see them in airports and the only place we could you see a teenager queuing were in front of the displays of the CK mist and it boosted also the sales of pen sprays and the sales of 30 mL fragrances.

    因此,我們已經推出了霧,我可以給你舉個今年夏初開始的 CK 霧的例子。如果你們——你們中的一些人今年夏天旅行過,你們會在機場看到它們,我們唯一能看到青少年排隊的地方是在 CK 噴霧的展示台前,它也促進了筆式噴霧和 30 毫升香水的銷量。

  • So that's another way to give people affordability with the same profitability without killing the gross to net equation of our very profitable center business of Prestige Fragrances.

    因此,這是讓人們能夠負擔得起產品並獲得相同盈利能力的另一種方式,同時又不會破壞我們利潤豐厚的核心業務 Prestige Fragrances 的毛利率與淨利率的等式。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Ashley Helgans, Jefferies.

    傑富瑞 (Jefferies) 的阿什利·赫爾甘斯 (Ashley Helgans)。

  • Sydney Wagner - Analyst

    Sydney Wagner - Analyst

  • This is Sydney on for Ashley. Can you just elaborate a little bit more on the comment on innovation fatigue? I think on the February earnings call, you called out kind of seeing a lack of innovation in color and mass, I believe. So is it feeling like the market got flooded in the last six months-or-so. And then just curious, are you only seeing that in color? Is that happening at all in Prestige?

    這是阿什利 (Ashley) 的雪梨 (Sydney)。能否更詳細闡述有關創新疲勞的評論?我認為,在二月的收益電話會議上,您曾指出,在色彩和品質方面缺乏創新。那麼,是不是感覺過去六個月左右市場就被淹沒了呢?我只是好奇,你只看到顏色嗎?在 Prestige 中也發生過這樣的事情嗎?

  • And then on promotion, just can you share how that varies between channels and then how that trended throughout the quarter and what you're seeing quarter-to-date, thank you.

    然後關於促銷,您能否分享一下不同管道之間的促銷差異,以及整個季度的趨勢以及您在本季度迄今為止看到的情況,謝謝。

  • Sue Nabi - Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Sue Nabi - Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Good morning. Thank you for the question. I'm going to take the first part, and maybe Laurent can complement on the second part of the question.

    早安.謝謝你的提問。我將回答第一部分,也許 Laurent 可以補充問題的第二部分。

  • So regarding the topic of innovation fatigue, which is one of the reasons why the market is not as dynamic as it used to be. You have to calculate also with the simplification of mega proteins, which more or less tells the same story. I think this is something that started maybe 18 months ago and that peaked recently with the inflation of launches.

    關於創新疲勞的話題,這也是市場不再像以前那麼活躍的原因之一。您還必須使用巨型蛋白質的簡化來計算,這或多或少也講述了同樣的故事。我認為這種情況大概在 18 個月前就開始了,並且隨著新船發射數量的增加而達到了頂峰。

  • Indeed, we all felt that we need to do the race and do more and more launches from TPMs in as quickly as two months with new new routines, new makeup finishes, et cetera. And in fact, the result is that a lot of consumers got lost in translation; specifically, those above 25 to 30 years old. This we heard it in the consumer studies we have conducted during this first half of fiscal 2025.

    事實上,我們都覺得我們需要參加比賽,並在短短兩個月內從 TPM 推出越來越多的新產品,包括新的例行公事、新的妝容等等。事實上,結果就是許多消費者在翻譯中迷失了方向,特別是那些 25 到 30 歲以上的消費者。我們在 2025 財年上半年進行的消費者研究中聽到了這一點。

  • We don't see something similar at all in fragrances simply because the market of fragrances is still quite simple. You have missed, which is becoming, for me, like a kind of modern tool which is generous content, easy-to-wear, not overwhelming, easy to pair it with something else and then entry fragrances and then niche fragrances.

    我們在香水中根本看不到類似的東西,因為香水市場仍然相當簡單。你錯過了,對我來說,它正在成為一種現代工具,內容豐富,易於佩戴,不會讓人感到壓抑,易於與其他東西搭配,然後是入門級香水,然後是小眾香水。

  • And inside these categories, you'll have the usual It's very simple, and people navigate quite simply, and they are educated very well by the court of influencers who are explaining these different ways of using fragrances, explaining the different ingredient trends and explaining what works in terms of for example.

    在這些類別中,你會看到通常的內容,它非常簡單,人們可以非常輕鬆地進行瀏覽,並且他們會受到有影響力的人士的良好教育,他們會解釋使用香水的不同方式,解釋不同的成分趨勢,並解釋例如什麼有效。

  • So in fact, what we see is that the dynamism of the scenting category because we should maybe move from the word fragrance to stenting, which is what Coty wants to own from $5 to $500 is all about this -- I'm quoting what consumers told us. For them, it's a hug in a bottle. Hug in a bottle, I think it's a great expression that explains why -- and this is going to last.

    因此,事實上,我們看到的是香味類別的活力,因為我們也許應該從“香味”這個詞轉向“支架”,這就是科蒂想要從 5 美元到 500 美元擁有的——我引用了消費者告訴我們的話。對他們來說,這就是瓶中的擁抱。瓶中擁抱,我認為這是一個很好的表達,解釋了為什麼——而且這種情況將會持續下去。

  • If you think about studies about the trend, which is more or less the index -- fragrance index story, they see it lasting for the next five to eight years. So it's not something that's going to be ending tomorrow, it's not anymore the discretionary category, and I've been saying that at length since five years, and I still continue to hear people almost willing that this is going to come to an end, but it's not coming to an end, simply because taking care of your brain, taking care of your mood, taking care of your moods in a way, is essential as taking care of your skin. So it's absolutely a must-have rather than a nice to have. So this is for the first part, and I'll let Laurent maybe comment on the second part

    如果你考慮一下趨勢的研究,這或多或少是指數——香水指數的故事,他們認為這種趨勢將持續未來五到八年。所以這不是明天就會結束的事情,它不再是可自由支配的類別,我已經說了五年了,我仍然繼續聽到人們幾乎希望這一切會結束,但它不會結束,只是因為照顧好你的大腦,照顧好你的情緒,照顧好你的情緒在某種程度上,與照顧好你的皮膚一樣重要。所以它絕對是必需品,而不是可有可無的東西。這是第一部分,我會讓 Laurent 對第二部分發表評論

  • Laurent Mercier - Chief Financial Officer

    Laurent Mercier - Chief Financial Officer

  • On promotions, I would say that indeed, I mean, we saw this starting on Consumer Beauty and color cosmetic, probably a year ago. And of course, it's also related to the slowdown of the category. So there is always this kind of mechanical reaction that lower consumption and this is especially what we saw in the US.

    關於促銷,我想說確實如此,大概在一年前,我們就在消費者美容和彩妝領域看到了這種現象。當然,這也與該類別的成長放緩有關。因此,總是存在這種降低消費的機械反應,尤其是在美國,我們看到了這種情況。

  • And then it's creating this kind of tension on promotion and as we just explained also linked to some innovation fatigue. So this is really what created this pattern on color cosmetics. On Prestige fragrance. Indeed, we observed this more recently. It's more in Q3 and even Q4. Again, the reason there are -- I mean, we saw some of our peers also some retailers, back to the point of trade inventory and also pressure on their working capital. So we observe this.

    然後,它就會在推廣中產生這種緊張局面,正如我們剛才解釋的那樣,這也與一些創新疲勞有關。這就是彩妝上出現這種模式的真正原因。關於 Prestige 香水。事實上,我們最近觀察到了這一點。在第三季度甚至第四季度,這種情況更為嚴重。再一次,原因是——我的意思是,我們看到一些同行以及一些零售商又回到了貿易庫存的階段,他們的營運資金也面臨壓力。所以我們觀察到了這一點。

  • So again, as I just explained before, it's manageable. We are managing this very tightly, we don't want to play the short-term reaction. That's always a trap. Of course, we know there is tension on the top line on results, but this is exactly what we want to avoid.

    所以,正如我之前解釋的那樣,這是可以控制的。我們對此進行非常嚴格的管理,我們不想做出短期反應。這永遠是個陷阱。當然,我們知道在業績方面存在著緊張,但這正是我們想要避免的。

  • Again, we want to reduce our inventory with the trade, bring strong innovation. That's always the best answer. And also, we are improving, increasing our media really to support all the icons, all the innovations. And again, as we just discussed, the full range, mass fragrance, Prestige fragrance and also high end. So that's the best answer to this promotional activities.

    再次,我們希望透過貿易減少庫存,帶來強勁的創新。這永遠是最好的答案。而且,我們正在改進和增加我們的媒體,以真正支持所有的圖標和所有的創新。正如我們剛才討論過的,有全系列、大眾香水、名牌香水以及高端香水。這就是對這次促銷活動最好的回答。

  • But indeed, we are observing this pattern in the sector.

    但事實上,我們在該領域觀察到了這種模式。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • [Oliver Chen, TD Securities]

    [道明證券 Oliver Chen]

  • Unidentified Participant

    Unidentified Participant

  • Good morning. This is Julia Sharansky on for Oliver Chen. You mentioned resellers and normalization in Asia. Could you provide a bit more details on how you see travel retail evolving into fiscal year '26? And within travel retail, how healthy is the channel today in terms of sell-through, which brands are outperforming? And how are you thinking about channel strategy over the next few years? Tied to that as well if you're seeing any noteworthy consumer trends across regions that could influence demand? Thank you.

    早安.我是 Julia Sharansky,為 Oliver Chen 主持節目。您提到了亞洲的經銷商和正常化。您能否提供更多細節,說明您如何看待旅遊零售業在 26 財年的發展?在旅遊零售領域,就銷售量而言,目前的通路狀況如何?哪些品牌表現優異?您如何考慮未來幾年的通路策略?如果您發現各個地區有任何值得注意的消費趨勢可能會影響需求,那麼與此相關的是什麼?謝謝。

  • Sue Nabi - Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Sue Nabi - Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Thank you. Good morning, Julia. So on travel retail, indeed, that's a good question. In fact, what we are doing is that we are reinforcing the ability of this channel to become a destination to discover newness. There were question marks around so buy in travel retail is still this channel price channel. I think what happened recently and the shift is happening hand-in-hand between us and our partners in Travel Retail is really to make this channel a discovery channel.

    謝謝。早上好,朱莉婭。因此,關於旅遊零售,這確實是一個好問題。事實上,我們正​​在做的是,加強這個管道成為發現新事物的目的地的能力。周圍存在著問號,因此旅遊零售的購買仍然是這個通路價格管道。我認為最近發生的事情以及我們與旅遊零售合作夥伴攜手發生的轉變實際上就是將這個管道變成一個發現管道。

  • Hence, our decision to make the key innovations of this fiscal year -- new fiscal year, sorry, travel retail exclusives for 1.5 months, you could see and sign the HUGO BOSS bottle beyond only in travel retail. And that's also a great said before the products hit the global distribution outside of travel retail.

    因此,我們決定在本財年做出重大創新——新的財年,抱歉,旅遊零售專營權持續 1.5 個月,您不僅可以在旅遊零售中看到並簽署 HUGO BOSS 瓶子。在產品進入旅遊零售以外的全球分銷之前,這也是一個很好的說法。

  • So this is a way to make sure that the consumers who are traveling even if the flow of PAXs is stabilizing, but the consumers who are traveling are more attracted towards this kind of exclusivities that make this channel look almost like a niche boutique with the newness and the things they do not yet find anywhere else, of course, with the price incentive.

    因此,這是一種確保旅行消費者的方法,即使 PAX 流量穩定,但旅行消費者更容易被這種獨家產品所吸引,這使得該管道看起來幾乎像一個小眾精品店,具有新穎性和他們在其他任何地方都找不到的東西,當然還有價格激勵。

  • So this is what I can tell you about the travel retail today. Our sales in travel retail Americas and in the EMEA region are growing nicely, I have to say it. The only region that is still indeed, as you said it in your question, still heavily affected is the Asian travel retail, which is heavily linked to the Chinese consumption in a way. The good news is that in China, we are seeing that the beauty market is gradually improving with Prestige Beauty specifically in the June quarter positive for the first time in many, plus 3%, and outperformance from the fragrance category at 7%.

    這就是我今天可以告訴大家的旅遊零售業的資訊。我必須要說,我們在美洲和歐洲、中東和非洲地區的旅遊零售銷售額正在穩步成長。正如您在問題中所說,唯一仍然受到嚴重影響的地區是亞洲旅遊零售業,它在某種程度上與中國消費密切相關。好消息是,在中國,我們看到美容市場正在逐步改善,尤其是在 6 月季度,Prestige Beauty 的銷售額首次出現增長,增幅達 3%,香水類別的銷售額也超過 7%。

  • So these are elements that gives us confidence that the missing part when it comes to the full travel retail picture, which is the Asian Chinese travel retail region is hopefully going to come back to a little bit more dynamics.

    因此,這些因素讓我們有信心,就整個旅遊零售業而言,缺少的部分,也就是亞洲中國旅遊零售地區,有望恢復更多的活力。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Andrea Teixeira, JPMorgan.

    摩根大通的安德里亞特謝拉 (Andrea Teixeira)。

  • Andrea Teixeira - Analyst

    Andrea Teixeira - Analyst

  • Thank you. Good morning, everyone. Good afternoon there. One, I have a question, so I appreciate the commentary about the mists. And just thinking about how you're going to pivot assuming, of course, you're going to continue to do the successes that you've been highlighting in innovation, in the new category. But also if you think about how to pivot in terms of channels and then your distribution.

    謝謝。大家早安。午安.首先,我有一個問題,所以我很感謝關於霧的評論。想想你將如何轉型,當然,假設你將繼續在新類別的創新中取得你所強調的成功。但如果您也考慮如何根據通路和分銷進行調整。

  • Just curious how you're setting yourself up for the balance of 2026 in terms of like the fiscal '26, the second half; in terms of like distribution gains and losses and net of that? And then a question to Laurent, in terms of like the way we should be thinking of the destocking, and I appreciate that you mentioned that the destocking had an 11% impact in the first -- in the second, I think it's the second half of fiscal '25 and then coming down to five. So I'm assuming if you can break down what you're assuming for Q1 and Q2 within that guide?

    我只是好奇,就 2026 財年下半年而言,您如何為 2026 年的餘額做好準備;就分配損益和淨額而言?然後我想問 Laurent,關於我們應該如何看待去庫存,我很感激您提到去庫存在第一季度產生了 11% 的影響,在第二季度,我認為是 25 財年下半年,然後下降到 5%。所以我假設您是否可以在該指南中分解您對 Q1 和 Q2 的假設?

  • I'm assuming you're still hoping to get the sell-out to grow. I think the numbers in July were quite supportive. But just to think about how sell-through against sell-in and when? It seems like from your commentary, you expect the destocking to last through calendar 2025. So if you can give us like a little bit of that color?

    我猜你仍然希望銷量能夠成長。我認為七月份的數據相當有支持作用。但只是想想如何賣出與賣入以及何時賣出?從您的評論來看,您似乎預計去庫存化將持續到 2025 年。那你能給我們一點那種顏色嗎?

  • And if I can squeeze one about Wella? When -- and what is the strategic view there are strategic options you were contemplating at this point?

    我可以擠一點關於 Wella 的東西嗎?您當時考慮的戰略選擇是什麼時候?戰略觀點是什麼?

  • Laurent Mercier - Chief Financial Officer

    Laurent Mercier - Chief Financial Officer

  • Yeah. Thank you, Andrea. So indeed, I can start really from -- on the destocking. Indeed, as we shared several times and we share again. And indeed, that we started to seeing, indeed, this destocking impact, I have to say, indeed, a year ago. But a year ago, as you remember, we were still on a very good trajectory.

    是的。謝謝你,安德里亞。因此,我確實可以從去庫存開始。確實,正如我們分享過多次並且再次分享的那樣。事實上,我們必須說,我們一年前就開始看到這種去庫存的影響了。但正如你們所記得的,一年前我們仍然處於非常好的軌道上。

  • I just want to remind that our Q1 Prestige last year was plus 7%. So we just need to remind that we are on a high base. And I want also to remind even though there are some headwinds. But when you look at the fragrance Prestige, the last two years of growth if I exclude Lacoste and Russia is plus 18%.

    我只是想提醒一下,我們去年第一季的聲望成長了 7%。所以我們只需要提醒自己,我們處於高水準。我還想提醒大家,儘管有些阻力。但是,如果你看一下香水 Prestige,如果不包括 Lacoste 和俄羅斯,過去兩年的成長是 18%。

  • So I think it's important also to zoom out and really to understand that we are coming from a very high dynamic. Then indeed, what we saw starting a year ago was this destocking. So you're right indeed that the gap indeed that at the beginning of the year was pretty high. We saw it -- we see it reducing step by step. So indeed, in the Q4, it was more 5%.

    因此我認為,縮小視野並真正理解我們正處於一個非常高的動態階段,這一點也很重要。確實,我們從一年前開始就看到了這種去庫存現象。所以你說得對,年初的差距確實很大。我們看到了——我們看到它正在一步步減少。因此,第四季的增幅確實超過了 5%。

  • So we are assuming in our model that this gap is going to continue to reduce. And indeed, the big one is the US, indeed because this is where we are really the biggest gap. So we need to reduce in Q1 fiscal '26 and then we need to reduce again in Q2 fiscal '26 and then to come to a level of being nil in the Q3 fiscal '26.

    因此,我們在模型中假設這一差距將會繼續縮小。確實,最大的差距是美國,因為這是我們之間差距最大的地方。因此,我們需要在 2026 財年第一季減少,然後在 2026 財年第二季再次減少,然後在 2026 財年第三季達到零水準。

  • So it's gradual. It's gradual. It's sequential. That's why we are very vocal about this sequential. At the same time, as we discussed before, yes, I mean, we feel that retailers are pretty nervous about their working capital. So they are also very cautious on their inventory.

    所以這是一個漸進的過程。這是漸進的。它是連續的。這就是為什麼我們對這個序列如此直言不諱。同時,正如我們之前討論過的,是的,我的意思是,我們覺得零售商對他們的營運資金非常緊張。因此他們對庫存也非常謹慎。

  • So indeed, there are a lot of moving pieces that we are seeing and is creating indeed this volatility. But again, this gap is going to continue to reduce and will step by step come to zero, and that's why we are absolutely confident that we are back to growth in the H2, and there is no gap between the sell-in and the sell-out. So that's really on the destocking.

    因此,我們確實看到了許多變動因素,這些因素確實造成了這種波動。但同樣,這種差距將會繼續縮小,並將逐步趨於零,這就是為什麼我們絕對有信心我們將在下半年恢復成長,並且賣出和買入之間不會出現差距。這確實與去庫存有關。

  • I jumped just in the wrong order just to Wella. I mean, we stay absolutely committed to divest, I mean, our stake. I mean we made it very clear several times. So indeed, we are contemplating options and really making sure always that it's good timing and good value for Coty. But this is absolutely a bigger step, a big move that we want to operate for Coty, and we keep you posted. So if I'm back to.

    我按照錯誤的順序跳到 Wella了。我的意思是,我們絕對致力於剝離我們的股份。我的意思是我們已經多次明確表示這一點。因此,我們確實在考慮各種選擇,並始終確保對科蒂來說時機合適、價值高。但這絕對是更大的一步,是我們希望為科蒂實施的重大舉措,我們會隨時向您通報最新情況。所以如果我回去的話。

  • Sue Nabi - Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Sue Nabi - Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Yes, I'm going to take the question regarding the -- I was trying to understand, in fact, the question regarding the -- if I understood well, Andrea, it's about how we are gaining or losing in terms of distribution.

    是的,我將回答有關這個問題——事實上,我試圖理解有關這個問題——如果我理解得沒錯的話,安德里亞,這是關於我們在分配方面是如何獲得或失去的。

  • So we have big distribution gains on fragrances, specifically on mass fragrances, which are up 20% the fragrance miss that we are playing both in mass and in Prestige are purely incremental in terms of shared space, but also in terms of sales while bringing the same profitability.

    因此,我們在香水分銷方面獲得了巨大的收益,特別是大眾香水,增長了 20%,我們在大眾和 Prestige 市場銷售的香水的失誤在共享空間方面純粹是增量,但在銷售方面也是增量,同時帶來了相同的盈利能力。

  • And then color cosmetics, the distribution is broadly stable. You commented about mist and blockbuster fragrances. It's an and story rather than an either. It's really both that we are playing on, regarding our ability to execute both at the same time. And again, what we are seeing is that we could see a young man or young women buying the key fragrance at the moment from us, while at the same time, buying one or two mists.

    然後是彩妝,分佈大致穩定。您評論了霧氣和重磅香水。這是一個「和」的故事,而不是「兩者皆是」的故事。我們實際上同時發揮這兩項能力,以達到同時執行這兩項任務的能力。而且,我們看到的是,年輕男性或女性現在從我們這裡購買主要香水,同時還會購買一兩瓶噴霧。

  • If you think about our Consumer Beauty mists, they are around $10; and our Prestige Mists, they're around $30. So this is very, very affordable and some people even buy two to three mists to play with this layering phenomenon, together still with the signature fragrance. So it's really an and story, hence, an incremental space, both in Mass or in Prestige.

    如果您想想我們的消費者美容噴霧,它們的價格約為 10 美元;而我們的尊貴噴霧,它們的價格約為 30 美元。所以這款噴霧非常非常實惠,有些人甚至會購買兩到三瓶噴霧來體驗這種分層效果,同時還能享受到標誌性的香味。因此,這確實是一個「和」的故事,因此,無論是在 Mass 還是在 Prestige,這都是一個增量空間。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Steve Powers, Duetsche Bank.

    德意志銀行的史蒂夫·鮑爾斯。

  • Steve Powers - Analyst

    Steve Powers - Analyst

  • Great, good morning, good afternoon, everybody. Great. Laurent, I just wanted to go back to what I thought I heard you say in response to Olivia's original question. I think you had said that absent tariffs, EBITDA for the year you thought would be down slightly. I think you're expecting a $50 million, $55 million net headwind from tariffs.

    太好了,大家早安,下午好。偉大的。洛朗,我只是想回到我認為我聽到的你對奧利維亞最初的問題的回答。我想您說過,如果沒有關稅,您認為今年的 EBITDA 會略有下降。我認為您預計關稅將帶來 5000 萬美元至 5500 萬美元的淨不利影響。

  • If I subtract that from where the EBITDA base is, it only gives you like a $20 million, $25 million window to stay above $1 billion. And I think you also said that you expect it to be above $1 billion of EBITDA for the year. So I just wanted to replay that and test what I heard and test your confidence because I think there's at least a $20 million, $25 million EBITDA window in your first half guidance. So just trying to understand where the confidence comes in for the full year.

    如果我從 EBITDA 基數中減去這個數字,那麼只能給出 2000 萬美元、2500 萬美元的窗口期來維持在 10 億美元以上。我想您也說過,您預計今年的 EBITDA 將超過 10 億美元。所以我只是想重複一遍,測試我所聽到的內容,並測試你的信心,因為我認為你的上半年指導中至少有 2000 萬美元、2500 萬美元的 EBITDA 窗口。所以只是想了解全年的信心來自哪裡。

  • Laurent Mercier - Chief Financial Officer

    Laurent Mercier - Chief Financial Officer

  • Yeah, absolutely. So I mean your maths are correct, absolutely. So indeed, we are -- again, we are giving precise guidance in Q1 and Q2 because indeed, visibility coming from the tariffs. And indeed, it's hurting the gross margin in H1.

    是的,絕對是如此。所以我的意思是你的數學絕對正確。所以確實,我們——再次強調,我們在第一季和第二季給出了精確的指導,因為關稅確實帶來了可見性。事實上,這確實損害了上半年的毛利率。

  • I can tell you that, indeed, the loss that we have on gross margin in H1 is mostly driven by tariffs and also to some extent that the euro-dollar still have some sourcing in Europe.

    我可以告訴你,事實上,我們上半年毛利率的損失主要是因為關稅,而且某種程度上歐元仍然在歐洲有一定的來源。

  • To the US, it's also impacting the gross margin. So this is indeed the major headwind. And at the same time, indeed, flowing into the EBITDA headwind that we are sharing in Q1 and Q2 combined, of course, with a still negative top line.

    對美國來說,這也影響了毛利率。所以這確實是一個重大的阻力。同時,我們確實在第一季和第二季共同面臨 EBITDA 逆風,當然,營收仍然為負。

  • Now moving to the H2. We start to inject some productivity actions related to tariffs. So the $20 million I'm referring to, I mean, will be really full speed from procurement and from manufacturing. So it will really secure the H2. And second, very important is that the All-in to Win plan that we announced in April will be also at full speed in H2 and will bring savings in the H2.

    現在轉到 H2。我們開始注入一些與關稅相關的生產力行動。所以我指的 2000 萬美元將真正從採購和製造方面全速投入。因此它將真正確保 H2 的安全。第二,非常重要的是,我們在四月宣布的「全力以赴」計畫也將在下半年全速推進,並將在下半年帶來節省。

  • So to make it very clear, Steve, on your question, yes, there is a tariff headwind, but there is absolute confidence that all the actions that we have in place either on the innovation top line, but also on productivity and savings give us sufficient protection to be above the $1 billion on the fiscal year '26.

    因此,史蒂夫,關於你的問題,我要明確一點,是的,存在關稅阻力,但我們絕對有信心,我們在創新頂線、生產力和節約方面採取的所有行動,都能為我們提供足夠的保障,使我們在 2026 財年的銷售額超過 10 億美元。

  • Steve Powers - Analyst

    Steve Powers - Analyst

  • Okay. Okay. And then, Sue, if I could, I just -- it sounds like initiatives like skin care, from your perspective, high level, are still on track. I just wanted to get your perspective and any thoughts as to whether or not as you update the strategy, refresh the strategy on fragrances as you've talked about today and last night and also kind of recalibrate on the cosmetics side.

    好的。好的。然後,蘇,如果可以的話,我只是——聽起來像皮膚護理這樣的舉措,從你的角度來看,高水平的,仍在按計劃進行。我只是想了解您的觀點和想法,即在更新策略時,是否要更新香水策略,正如您今天和昨晚談到的那樣,還要重新調整化妝品方面的策略。

  • As you do that work, is there any opportunity cost to just distraction from what would have been the strategic investments and prioritization of skin care? Or are those two things distinct enough that that the efforts in skincare evolution can progress undeterred as you update on fragrance and cosmetics?

    當您進行這項工作時,是否存在機會成本,讓您分散對皮膚護理的策略性投資和優先重點的注意力?或者這兩件事是否足夠不同,以至於隨著香水和化妝品的更新,護膚品的進化努力可以不受阻礙地進步?

  • Sue Nabi - Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Sue Nabi - Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Yeah, that's indeed the third question. What I can tell you is that, of course, we are betting -- double betting on the treatonomics, the fragrance index, and the company will own the full spectrum from $5 to $500 from anything that's adjacency sending to classical fragrances and elixirs. But I also believe that part of my role is to prepare for the far future of this company. And the far future of this company is into anything that's around care.

    是的,這確實是第三個問題。我可以告訴你的是,當然,我們在下注——在香料經濟學、香水指數上下了雙重賭注,公司將擁有從 5 美元到 500 美元的全系列產品,包括鄰近發送到古典香水和長生不老藥的任何產品。但我也相信,我的職責之一就是為這家公司的長期未來做好準備。這家公司的長遠未來將致力於一切與護理相關的事業。

  • I think fragrances are care of the mind. Skincare is, by definition, the care of the skin. These are two categories that have a lot of similarities. They are both very profitable categories, they are both poised for growth for the next, I would say, decades because of the aging of the population and when it comes to skin care and the fact that people are really willing and obsessed with the fact that they want to age gracefully or in good health. The global warming and the UV, I would say, exposure of human beings for the decades to come will require everyone to use sun protection, this is something I can tell you. So it's also, for me, a bet on the future.

    我認為香水是心靈的關懷。護膚,顧名思義,就是對皮膚的照顧。這是兩個具有許多相似之處的類別。它們都是非常有利可圖的類別,而且我認為,由於人口老齡化和皮膚護理,以及人們真正願意並痴迷於優雅地或健康地變老這一事實,它們都有望在未來幾十年實現增長。我想說,未來幾十年全球暖化和紫外線對人類的影響將要求每個人都採取防曬措施,這是我可以告訴你的。所以對我來說,這也是對未來的賭注。

  • Now coming back to the present, we are going to be much more, I would say, radical in terms of how much we invest. The good news is that the size of the brand is small, and therefore, the growth is almost natural because of the size. So we are going to be very, very careful in making the full resources available behind what is our strength, what is our uniqueness and what is our growing business today and most profitable business also, which is scenting at large.

    現在回到現在,我想說,我們在投資方面將會更加積極。好消息是,該品牌的規模較小,因此,由於規模的原因,成長幾乎是自然而然的。因此,我們將非常非常小心地將全部資源用於我們的優勢、我們的獨特之處、我們目前不斷成長的業務以及最賺錢的業務,也就是香水業務。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Chris Carey, Wells Fargo Securities.

    富國證券的克里斯凱裡 (Chris Carey)。

  • Chris Carey - Analyst

    Chris Carey - Analyst

  • Hi everyone, I wanted to ask about cash flow. Laurent, over the next several years, what are the cash commitments that we should be thinking about? I think I'm specifically thinking about the swaps. You also talked about refinancing of certain debt. But I was just wondering if we could get some sense of kind of obligations you might have over the next several years. And I have a more strategic follow-up.

    大家好,我想問現金流的問題。洛朗,在接下來的幾年裡,我們應該考慮哪些現金承諾?我想我正在特別考慮交換。您也談到了某些債務的再融資。但我只是想知道我們是否可以了解您在未來幾年可能承擔的義務。我還有一個更具策略性的後續行動。

  • Laurent Mercier - Chief Financial Officer

    Laurent Mercier - Chief Financial Officer

  • Yeah, good morning, Chris. I mean I keep repeating and saying that, of course, cash and deleveraging remains the number one imperative. So indeed, I mean, we are building the plan. And as I just shared, I mean, our plan is our fiscal year '26 cash flow, I mean, will increase versus our fiscal '25 and indeed, you understand that we have these headwinds in fiscal year '25.

    是的,早上好,克里斯。我的意思是,我不斷重複說,當然,現金和去槓桿仍然是首要任務。所以事實上,我的意思是我們正在製定計劃。正如我剛才分享的,我們的計劃是,26 財年的現金流將比 25 財年有所增加,事實上,您知道我們在 25 財年遇到了這些阻力。

  • We still have headwinds in calendar year in the first half of fiscal '26 due to the against these retailers, inventory destocking impact. But then as we are entering the calendar year '26, then we are really back to our normal cash cycle. So that's really with all the ingredients that I would say we are mastering very well.

    由於這些零售商面臨庫存去庫存的影響,我們在 26 財年上半年仍面臨阻力。但隨著我們進入 26 日曆年,我們實際上又回到了正常的現金週期。所以我想說,我們已經很好地掌握了所有要素。

  • So starting, of course, with the EBITDA, but also very tight control on the inventory. Inventory, we shared several times and now it's starting full speed that we are implementing a new forecasting tool and it's giving real and it will give more and more strong results in terms of forecast accuracy, which has a direct impact on excess and obsolesce but most importantly, the rate impact on the level of inventory and will help the cash. So we stay very strict on our DSO, very strict on our DPO.

    因此,當然從 EBITDA 開始,但也要嚴格控制庫存。庫存,我們分享過幾次,現在我們正在全速實施一種新的預測工具,它正在提供真實的結果,並且在預測準確性方面將提供越來越強大的結果,這對過剩和過時有直接的影響,但最重要的是,利率對庫存水平的影響將有助於現金。因此,我們對 DSO 和 DPO 的要求都非常嚴格。

  • So of course, to make sure that our cash engine is fully in motion. So indeed, the swaps, I mean -- as you know, I mean, the ultimate goal is really that -- it's really something that we can activate at some moment as a share buyback. So of course, we are making sure that it is the right moment and really when we get out of the more difficult context that indeed we can continue again this agenda.

    所以當然要確保我們的現金引擎充分運轉。所以,我的意思是,掉期——正如你所知,最終目標實際上是——我們可以在某個時刻以股票回購的方式激活它。因此,我們當然要確保現在是正確的時機,並且當我們擺脫更困難的環境時,我們確實可以繼續執行這項議程。

  • And on your last point here, I mean, refinancing, yes, of course, yes, we have maturity in calendar year '26, so it's a no-brainer that, yes, we are actively working on this refinancing to extend the maturity. I mean, we are in a good position. And of course, taking benefit of our consecutive rating upgrade. Our last refinancing was very successful. We are in a good position.

    關於你的最後一點,我的意思是,再融資,是的,當然,是的,我們的債務將在 26 日曆年到期,所以毫無疑問,我們正在積極努力進行再融資以延長債務期限。我的意思是,我們處於有利地位。當然,這也得益於我們連續的評級提升。我們上次的再融資非常成功。我們處於有利地位。

  • And of course, really to continue this healthy trajectory on cash, refinancing and deleveraging the company.

    當然,公司在現金、再融資和去槓桿方面確實要繼續保持健康的軌跡。

  • Sue Nabi - Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Sue Nabi - Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Yeah, we are confident in sell-in Wella as the second half.

    是的,我們對下半年 Wella 的銷售充滿信心。

  • Laurent Mercier - Chief Financial Officer

    Laurent Mercier - Chief Financial Officer

  • Yes, absolutely.

    是的,絕對是。

  • Chris Carey - Analyst

    Chris Carey - Analyst

  • Okay. Great. And just from a consumer beauty standpoint, this balance between revenue and profitability, can you just maybe outline a bit more aspirations for profitability in the business maybe from a margin perspective in the coming few years and how you might I guess, be comfortable with potential revenue impacts if you achieve profitability objectives in the coming few years?

    好的。偉大的。僅從消費者美容的角度來看,在收入和盈利能力之間取得平衡,您能否從未來幾年的利潤率角度概述一下對業務盈利能力的更多期望,以及如果您在未來幾年實現盈利目標,您可能會如何接受潛在的收入影響?

  • Laurent Mercier - Chief Financial Officer

    Laurent Mercier - Chief Financial Officer

  • Yeah. I mean that's -- I can tell you a priority. I mean, you see -- I mean, of course, in the numbers that we are releasing that, of course, I mean the big pool of our profit generation is from Prestige and this is indeed 90% of the profit. And indeed, that the Consumer Beauty is indeed generating the profit is too low. So we have -- we are working very actively on several initiatives to improve significantly the profitability of this division.

    是的。我的意思是——我可以告訴你一個優先事項。我的意思是,你看——我的意思是,當然,在我們發布的數字中,當然,我的意思是我們的利潤來源很大一部分來自 Prestige,這確實佔了利潤的 90%。確實,消費者美容確實產生的利潤太低了。因此,我們正在積極開展多項舉措,以大幅提高該部門的獲利能力。

  • I mean that's the number one mandate. And as you can imagine, I mean, we are going through, I mean, the full value creation model, so looking at, of course, the cost of goods, I mean, our SG&A. And also on -- yes, on our AMCP, Sue referred to that at the beginning. So is to be more precise and we need to understand where we allocate our money.

    我的意思是這是首要任務。正如您所想像的,我們正在經歷完整的價值創造模式,因此,當然要看商品成本,也就是我們的銷售、一般和行政費用 (SG&A)。是的,在我們的 AMCP 上,Sue 在一開始就提到了這一點。所以更準確地說,我們需要了解我們的資金分配到哪裡。

  • And we're also making sure we are protecting our loyal consumers. I mean our brands, we have very strong loyal consumers. So we need to make sure that we keep communicating with them. So it means, and I think this is behind your question, so it's always the trade-off between profitability and top line.

    我們也要確保保護我們的忠實消費者。我的意思是我們的品牌擁有非常忠實的消費者。因此我們需要確保與他們保持溝通。所以這意味著,我認為這是你的問題背後的原因,所以它總是盈利能力和收入之間的權衡。

  • Indeed, this is what we are looking in a very detailed manner. Yes, it may imply that in some cases, in some specific situations where we think that it's not profitable enough, yes, we may take some choices, which may impact indeed the net revenue. And in a way, it's also something that is driving our algorithm also on net revenue. So the number one mandate now for this division is really profitability.

    事實上,這正是我們正在非常詳細地研究的內容。是的,這可能意味著在某些情況下,在某些我們認為獲利不夠的特定情況下,我們可能會做出一些選擇,這確實可能會影響淨收入。某種程度上來說,這也是推動我們淨收入演算法的因素。因此,目前該部門的首要任務就是獲利。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Anna Lizzul, Bank of America.

    美國銀行的安娜‧利祖爾 (Anna Lizzul)。

  • Anna Lizzul - Analyst

    Anna Lizzul - Analyst

  • I wanted to ask on the Prestige fragrance market. In the past, you mentioned that growth in Prestige fragrances was due to growth from a few demographics, which included Gen Z, men and Hispanics. And I was wondering if you're seeing a particular pullback from specific demographics or income tiers, particularly in the US? And then on the broader US beauty market, are you seeing any specific income tiers with a pullback or a wider array? Thanks so much.

    我想詢問有關 Prestige 香水市場的情況。過去,您提到 Prestige 香水的成長歸因於幾個人口群體的成長,其中包括 Z 世代、男性和西班牙裔。我想知道您是否看到特定人群或收入階層的特別回落,特別是在美國?那麼,在更廣泛的美國美容市場上,您是否看到任何特定收入階層的消費水準出現回落或範圍擴大?非常感謝。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Please stand by for one moment while we reconnect the speakers line.

    請稍等片刻,我們正在重新連接揚聲器線。

  • Sue Nabi - Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Sue Nabi - Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • and there was a disconnection on the main line. So now we are back. Can you hear as well?

    主線路出現斷線。現在我們回來了。你也能聽見嗎?

  • Anna Lizzul - Analyst

    Anna Lizzul - Analyst

  • Yeah, I can hear you.

    是的,我聽得到你的聲音。

  • Sue Nabi - Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Sue Nabi - Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Who is speaking? Is it Anan?

    誰在說話?是阿南嗎?

  • Anna Lizzul - Analyst

    Anna Lizzul - Analyst

  • Yes, this is Anna from Bank of America.

    是的,我是美國銀行的安娜。

  • Sue Nabi - Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Sue Nabi - Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Anna, thank you. So I took notes, but my understanding is that on the Prestige fragrance market in the past, the market was fueled by entering the market, and you rightly mentioned Hispanics in the US, you mentioned also men, you mentioned also Gen Zs, and if there is a pullback in some of these demographics?

    安娜,謝謝你。所以我做了筆記,但我的理解是,在過去的高端香水市場上,市場是由進入市場推動的,你正確地提到了美國的西班牙裔,你也提到了男性,你也提到了 Z 世代,如果這些人口統計數據中的一些出現回落呢?

  • We don't see a pullback in these demographics. We even see a penetration curve continuing to increase among the main demographics that are the Gen Z consumers, specifically the teen male consumers who are today those behind the biggest successes in male fragrances.

    我們沒有看到這些人口統計數據出現回落。我們甚至看到,在主要消費人口 Z 世代中,滲透曲線持續上升,特別是青少年男性消費者,他們是當今男士香水領域最大成功的推動者。

  • That's one of the regions, probably the latest HUGO BOSS beyond launch is resonating so well. It's because it also attracts this younger generation versus what we did in the past. The Hispanic community is continuing to be another consumer of, I would say, very strong and long-lasting fragrances, which we have seen consistently continuing.

    這是其中一個領域,可能是最新推出的 HUGO BOSS beyond 引起如此強烈的共鳴。這是因為與過去相比,它更能吸引年輕一代。我想說,西班牙裔群體繼續成為非常強烈和持久香水的另一個消費者,我們看到這種趨勢一直在持續。

  • And last, but not least, we also see that among Gen Zs, the heavy users proportion has never been higher than now. So they own a lot of fragrances, sometimes three or four, which is what is called the wardrobe effect. And we see now the perfume mix phenomenon becoming part of this scenting index at large, as I like to call it. So to answer in short, we don't see pull back from any of these demographics.

    最後,但同樣重要的一點是,我們也看到,在 Z 世代中,重度使用者的比例從未像現在這樣高。所以他們擁有很多香水,有時有三、四種,這就是所謂的衣櫥效應。現在我們看到香水混合現象正在成為這種香味指數的一部分,我喜歡這樣稱呼它。所以簡而言之,我們沒有看到任何人口統計出現下滑。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • [Priya Uri Gupta with Barclays]

    [巴克萊銀行的 Priya Uri Gupta]

  • Unidentified Participant

    Unidentified Participant

  • Hey, good morning, thank you so much for taking the question. So Laurent, could you speak a little bit more about your refinancing expectations around the 2026 maturity? Should we continue to expect that, that will be consistent with the secured structure that you currently have in place?

    嘿,早上好,非常感謝您回答這個問題。那麼 Laurent,您能否再多談談您對 2026 年到期的再融資預期?我們是否應該繼續期待這一點,這將與您目前實施的安全結構保持一致?

  • And then secondly, as we're thinking about the path to deleveraging in calendar '26, should we assume that that's primarily driven by improving EBITDA trends as f some of the cost savings take hold into the back half of the calendar year and '26 or is there expectation that the sale will also help achieve that outcome?

    其次,當我們思考 26 年去槓桿的路徑時,我們是否應該假設這主要是由 EBITDA 趨勢的改善所驅動,因為部分成本節省將在 2026 年下半年實現,或者是否預期出售也將有助於實現這一結果?

  • Laurent Mercier - Chief Financial Officer

    Laurent Mercier - Chief Financial Officer

  • Yeah, good morning, Priya. Thanks, Yes. Thank you for the question. So on refinancing expectations, I mean, yes, absolutely. I mean it will be consistent, I mean, with the secured structure in place, so absolutely, yes.

    是的,早上好,普里婭。謝謝,是的。謝謝你的提問。因此,關於再融資預期,我的意思是,是的,絕對是如此。我的意思是它將保持一致,我的意思是,在安全結構到位的情況下,所以絕對是的。

  • So on deleveraging, again, I mean, the model is very clear. And you understand from the guidance we are giving that indeed that Q1 and Q2, of course, will be impacted by the lower EBITDA, but we stay absolutely focused the working capital and the CapEx discipline, then entering calendar year '26.

    因此,關於去槓桿,我再說一遍,模型非常清晰。從我們提供的指導中您可以了解到,第一季和第二季確實會受到較低 EBITDA 的影響,但我們會完全專注於營運資本和資本支出紀律,然後進入 26 日曆年。

  • As I shared before, with EBITDA being back to growth, cash generation, we are going to continue our deleveraging agenda. And indeed, as we shared, we are indeed actively working really on the Wella stake divestiture and indeed to help and support indeed to accelerate our deleveraging.

    正如我之前所分享的,隨著 EBITDA 恢復成長和現金產生,我們將繼續我們的去槓桿計劃。事實上,正如我們所分享的,我們確實在積極致力於威娜股份的剝離,並確實提供幫助和支持,以加速我們的去槓桿化。

  • Unidentified Participant

    Unidentified Participant

  • Okay, thank you so much.

    好的,非常感謝。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Thank you. At this time, we have no further questions in the queue. So I would like to turn the call back over to our speakers for any additional or closing remarks.

    謝謝。目前,我們沒有其他問題。因此,我想將電話轉回給我們的發言人,請他們發表任何補充或結束語。

  • Sue Nabi - Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Sue Nabi - Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Thank you very much. Thank you, everyone. We -- of course, we realize our results are not satisfying. Please know that we are acting with urgency, especially in the US, as you have seen it. We have taken all the required action, and we have a clear plan with first and early very, very promising green shoots.

    非常感謝。謝謝大家。我們——當然,我們意識到我們的結果並不令人滿意。請知悉,我們正在緊急採取行動,特別是在美國,正如您所看到的。我們已經採取了所有必要的行動,並且制定了明確的計劃,並且已經看到了非常有希望的早期復甦跡象。

  • The company is now more focused. It's financially stronger than ever. Of course, no one is immune to market volatility, but these results do not reflect the true potential and value of the business we are building. So we are confident that the real strength of the company will be recognized and visible as quickly as possible in fiscal '26. Thank you very much.

    該公司現在更加專注。它的財務狀況比以前任何時候都更加強勁。當然,沒有人能夠免受市場波動的影響,但這些結果並不能反映我們正在建立的業務的真正潛力和價值。因此,我們相信,公司的真正實力將在 26 財年盡快得到認可和顯現。非常感謝。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Thank you, ladies and gentlemen. This does conclude today's presentation, and we appreciate your participation. You may disconnect at any time.

    謝謝各位,女士們、先生們。今天的演講到此結束,我們感謝您的參與。您可以隨時斷開連線。