Mr Cooper Group Inc (COOP) 2021 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Hello. Thank you for standing by, and welcome to Mr. Cooper Group Q4 2021 Earnings Conference Call. (Operator Instructions) Please be advised that today's conference is being recorded. (Operator Instructions)

你好。感謝您的耐心等待，歡迎參加庫柏先生集團 2021 年第四季財報電話會議。 （操作員指示）請注意，今天的會議正在錄製中。 （操作員說明）

I would now like to hand the conference over to your speaker today, Ken Posner. Please go ahead.

我現在想把會議交給今天的發言人肯·波斯納。請繼續。

Good morning, and welcome to Mr. Cooper Group's fourth quarter earnings call. My name is Ken Posner and I'm SVP of Strategic Planning and Investor Relations. With me today are Jay Bray, Chairman and CEO; Chris Marshall, Vice Chairman, President and CFO; and Jaime Gow, Deputy CFO. As a quick reminder, this call is being recorded. Also, you can find the slides on our Investor Relations web page at investors.mrcoopergroup.com.

早安，歡迎參加庫柏集團第四季財報電話會議。我叫肯‧波斯納 (Ken Posner)，是策略規劃與投資人關係資深副總裁。今天與我在一起的有董事長兼執行長傑伊·布雷 (Jay Bray)；克里斯‧馬歇爾 (Chris Marshall)，副主席、總裁兼財務長；和副財務長 Jaime Gow。快速提醒一下，此通話正在錄音。此外，您也可以在我們的投資人關係網頁 Investors.mrcoopergroup.com 上找到這些投影片。

During the call, we may refer to non-GAAP measures, which are reconciled to GAAP results in the appendix to the slide deck. Also, we may make forward-looking statements, which you should understand could be affected by risk factors that we've identified in our 10-K and other SEC filings. We are not undertaking any commitment to update these statements if conditions change.

在電話會議期間，我們可能會參考非 GAAP 衡量標準，這些衡量標準與幻燈片附錄中的 GAAP 結果一致。此外，我們可能會做出前瞻性聲明，您應該了解這些聲明可能會受到我們在 10-K 和其他 SEC 文件中確定的風險因素的影響。我們不承諾在情況改變時更新這些聲明。

I'll now turn the call over to Jay.

我現在將把電話轉給傑伊。

Thanks, Ken, and good morning, everyone, and welcome to our call. We've just closed out an exceptional year, and I'd like to open by recognizing my fellow Coopers for everything you've done to care for customers and produce such strong results. I've been amazed at your commitment and hard work while dealing with all the pandemic challenges. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you.

謝謝，肯，大家早安，歡迎撥打我們的電話。我們剛結束了非凡的一年，首先我想對庫柏同事們表示認可，感謝你們為關心客戶並取得如此出色的業績所做的一切。我對你們在應對所有流行病挑戰時的承諾和辛勤工作感到驚訝。謝謝。謝謝。謝謝。

In a moment, I'll share some thoughts on the outlook, but let's start, as we always do, by reviewing the quarter's highlights. And this is worth doing because we accomplished a great deal in the fourth quarter, and it capped out and made the year.

稍後，我將分享一些關於前景的想法，但讓我們像往常一樣，首先回顧本季的亮點。這是值得做的，因為我們在第四季度取得了巨大的成就，並且結束了這一年。

We'll turn to Slide 3. Net income for the fourth quarter was $155 million or $2.01 per share, which was equivalent to a return on tangible equity of 14.9%. For the full year, operating return on equity was 25.7% which, as it turns out, was exactly what we guided you to expect a year ago.

我們將轉向投影片 3。全年營運股本回報率為 25.7%，事實證明，這正是我們一年前指導您的預期。

During the fourth quarter, both Originations and Servicing turned in results that were ahead of our expectations. Servicing outperformed on EBO revenues, and our DTC teams did a fantastic job driving recapture and cash-out refis. And as a result, the origination margin actually increased for the quarter from 1.27% to 1.41%.

在第四季度，起源和服務的結果都超出了我們的預期。服務在 EBO 收入方面表現出色，我們的 DTC 團隊在推動收回和兌現再融資方面做得非常出色。結果，本季的起始利潤率實際上從 1.27% 增加到 1.41%。

Thanks to the strong operating results as well as a positive mark on the MSR, tangible book value increased to $43.82 per share. And I'd like to point out that on a year-over-year basis, this was a 67% increase. Let's talk about that for a moment. We had strong operating results in 2021. Positive marks on the MSR. We had gains from monetizing 3 out of Xome's 4 businesses, and we were able to opportunistically retire shares at attractive prices. Now we don't expect to grow TBV at this rate in most years, but there were some key themes in 2021 that are worth highlighting because they're core to the Cooper story, and these include: an intense focus on operations; an opportunistic approach to capital allocation; and the willingness to monetize assets when that makes sense strategically.

由於強勁的經營業績以及 MSR 的正面評價，有形帳面價值增至每股 43.82 美元。我想指出的是，與去年同期相比，成長了 67%。讓我們暫時討論一下這個問題。我們在 2021 年取得了強勁的經營業績。我們從 Xome 的 4 項業務中的 3 項貨幣化中獲得了收益，並且我們能夠機會以有吸引力的價格出售股票。現在，我們預計大多數年份的 TBV 不會以這種速度成長，但 2021 年有一些關鍵主題值得強調，因為它們是庫柏故事的核心，其中包括：對營運的強烈關注；資本配置的機會主義方法；以及在策略上有意義時將資產貨幣化的意願。

Turning to the servicing portfolio. Growth accelerated to 6% in the quarter on the back of strong acquisitions. As a result, we closed out the year up 17%, and we're excited about the momentum heading into 2022.

轉向服務組合。在強勁收購的推動下，本季成長率加速至 6%。結果，我們今年的業績成長了 17%，我們對進入 2022 年的勢頭感到興奮。

Shifting to capital management. We repurchased $56 million of our stock during the fourth quarter at an average price of $41.22, which was a 6% discount to fourth quarter TBV. We expect to generate continued growth in TBV and we believe those shares represent outstanding value. I'm also pleased to report that the Board has authorized an additional $200 million, bringing our total authorization to $252 million as of today.

轉向資本管理。我們在第四季以 41.22 美元的平均價格回購了 5,600 萬美元的股票，比第四季的 TBV 折讓了 6%。我們預計 TBV 將會持續成長，我們相信這些股票代表著卓越的價值。我還很高興地報告，董事會已額外授權 2 億美元，使我們的總授權達到今天的 2.52 億美元。

The balance sheet is in the strongest shape of the company's history. Thanks to the sale of the Reverse business, we achieved and surpassed our target of 15% tangible net worth to assets, while at the same time simplifying our financials and streamlining our business model. The company generated very strong cash flow during the quarter with $171 million in steady-state cash flow. And when it comes to cash generation, our balanced business model is very different from peers. Our large servicing portfolio throws off huge amounts of cash. Our DTC unit is consistently cash flow positive, which is rarely the case for traditional origination channels, and the DTA shields us from paying federal taxes.

資產負債表處於公司史上最強勁的狀態。由於反向業務的出售，我們實現並超越了有形淨資產佔資產 15% 的目標，同時簡化了我們的財務狀況並精簡了我們的業務模式。該公司在本季產生了非常強勁的現金流，穩態現金流為 1.71 億美元。在現金產生方面，我們的平衡商業模式與同業有很大不同。我們龐大的服務組合浪費了大量現金。我們的 DTC 部門始終保持正現金流，這對於傳統的發起管道來說很少見，而且 DTA 使我們免於繳納聯邦稅。

Thanks to strong cash flow plus the senior notes offering we completed in the fourth quarter, we're starting the year with $895 million in unrestricted cash and a total of $1.7 billion in liquidity, which is a lot of dry powder.

由於強勁的現金流加上我們在第四季度完成的優先票據發行，我們在年初擁有 8.95 億美元的非限制性現金和總計 17 億美元的流動性，這是大量的乾粉。

Now let's turn to Slide 4, and we'll share our latest thinking on 2022 outlook and beyond. This guidance is based on the current yield curve, which anticipates the Fed tighten 4x this year, with 30-year mortgage rate increasing from the current levels to around 4% and continued economic growth.

現在讓我們轉向幻燈片 4，我們將分享我們對 2022 年及未來展望的最新想法。該指引基於當前的殖利率曲線，預計聯準會今年將收緊 4 倍，30 年期抵押貸款利率從目前水準升至 4% 左右，經濟將持續成長。

Let's start by talking about return on tangible equity. After 2 years of outperforming our targets, we're now starting the year where returns are going to be at the lower end of the 12% to 20% range, which is what we've guided you to expect in most environments. This shouldn't be a surprise. It's just the reality that Originations normalizes very rapidly while it will take a few quarters for Servicing to hit its stride.

讓我們先討論有形股本回報率。經過兩年超額完成我們的目標後，我們現在開始的新一年，回報率將處於 12% 至 20% 範圍的下限，這是我們在大多數環境下指導您的預期。這並不奇怪。事實上，Originations 恢復正常的速度非常快，而 Servicing 則需要幾個季度才能步入正軌。

Having said that, let's talk about TBV growth where the outlook is stronger. In fact, the outlook for TBV growth is really quite excellent because in addition to operating earnings, there's a strong likelihood that we'll mark up our MSRs for higher rates. And as you know, a successful monetization of Xome would drive substantial benefit for TBV. As we head into 2023, we expect ROTCE to start rising again and potentially to structurally higher levels as we're working on a number of strategic initiatives designed to drive lower cost and wider margins.

話雖如此，讓我們來談談前景更為強勁的 TBV 成長。事實上，TBV 成長的前景確實非常好，因為除了營業收入之外，我們很有可能會提高 MSR 以獲得更高的利率。如您所知，Xome 的成功貨幣化將為 TBV 帶來巨大利益。進入 2023 年，我們預計 ROTCE 將再次開始上升，並可能達到結構性更高水平，因為我們正在製定一系列旨在降低成本和擴大利潤的策略性舉措。

Now let's talk about Servicing portfolio growth where the outlook remains very promising. For 2022, we'd expect at least 10% portfolio growth. And I'd be surprised if we didn't do better. Activity in the bulk market remains quite strong. In fact, we just won another large portfolio last week. At the same time, we're seeing new opportunities in subservicing. We're in talks with a number of potential clients, including MSR investors who recognize the significant technology investments we've made and what that means for recapture. And I'm confident that we'll soon be reporting some new client wins.

現在讓我們來談談服務投資組合成長，其前景仍然非常光明。到 2022 年，我們預計投資組合將成長至少 10%。如果我們沒有做得更好，我會感到驚訝。大宗市場的活動仍然相當強勁。事實上，我們上週剛贏得了另一個大型投資組合。同時，我們在服務領域看到了新的機會。我們正在與許多潛在客戶進行談判，其中包括 MSR 投資者，他們認識到我們所做的重大技術投資以及這對重新奪回的意義。我相信我們很快就會報告一些新客戶的勝利。

Let's spend a moment on capital deployment as these are probably the most important decisions we make on behalf of our stakeholders. As you know, we've established a strategic target of $1 trillion in UPB, which would be around 5 million customers. We believe this level of scale will constitute a major competitive advantage. We're actually moving towards that goal faster than we expected, and we're very excited about this momentum. However, I want to remind you that every single acquisition we make is subject to return hurdles. We've never chased market share, and we aren't about to start.

讓我們花點時間討論資本部署，因為這些可能是我們代表利害關係人所做的最重要的決定。如您所知，我們制定了 UPB 1 兆美元的策略目標，這將涵蓋約 500 萬名客戶。我們相信這種規模水準將構成主要的競爭優勢。實際上，我們實現這一目標的速度比我們預期的要快，我們對這種勢頭感到非常興奮。然而，我想提醒您，我們進行的每項收購都存在回報障礙。我們從來沒有追逐過市場份額，而且我們也不打算開始。

What you're seeing right now is the thesis, which we laid out for you more than a year ago that rising rates would pressure originators to sell the MSRs they were holding on to during the pandemic. And because there are relatively few firms with the capital and operational capacity to take on portfolios, the pricing is excellent. If this changes next quarter, we'll pull back. And we've been working on our platform for many, many years, and we have no problem being patient.

您現在看到的是我們一年多前為您提出的論點，即利率上升將迫使發起人出售他們在大流行期間持有的 MSR。而且由於擁有資本和營運能力來承擔投資組合的公司相對較少，因此定價非常好。如果下個季度這種情況發生變化，我們將撤回。我們已經在我們的平台上工作了很多很多年，我們沒有耐心等待。

Our second priority is to return excess capital through stock repurchase, especially when the share price is attractive as it is right now. Finally, I want all of our investors both equity and debt to understand our commitment to managing capital and liquidity in a manner that inspires confidence in our balance sheet. That's exactly what you saw us do last year when we grew the portfolio, bought back stock and ended the year in an even stronger state.

我們的第二個優先事項是透過股票回購返還多餘的資本，特別是當股價像現在一樣有吸引力的時候。最後，我希望我們所有的股票和債務投資者都能理解我們對管理資本和流動性的承諾，以激發對我們資產負債表的信心。這正是你去年看到的我們所做的，當時我們擴大了投資組合，回購了股票，並以更強勁的狀態結束了這一年。

Now if you'll turn with me to Slide 5, I'll wrap up my remarks with some comments on technology. We are in the business of continuously building solutions for our team members and customers, and we also look for ways to extract value from our assets and platform. Xome and our proprietary technology solutions are perfect examples of this.

現在，如果您跟我一起看投影片 5，我將用一些關於科技的評論來結束我的演講。我們致力於不斷為團隊成員和客戶建立解決方案，我們也尋找從我們的資產和平台中提取價值的方法。 Xome 和我們的專有技術解決方案就是完美的例子。

For example, part of what made our title unit such a profitable business was the automated title underwriting engine called X1. X1 provides instant clear to close, which helps speed up the underwriting process. And X1 was an application that we developed, and it was part of the reason we got such an attractive valuation for our title unit when we exited the business last year.

例如，使我們的產權部門成為如此有利可圖的業務的部分原因是名為 X1 的自動化產權承保引擎。 X1提供即時清算到關閉，這有助於加快承保過程。 X1 是我們開發的應用程序，這也是我們去年退出該業務時我們的產權部門獲得如此有吸引力的估值的部分原因。

As another example, you've heard us talk about our award-winning cloud-based document reading technology, which we now call Pyro. Thanks to machine learning, we can scan enormous quantities of documents with very high accuracy rate. This is a huge advantage to us in onboarding large portfolios. We're now licensing this technology to other mortgage companies, and I'm pleased to report we just signed up our first customer.

另一個例子，您已經聽過我們談論我們屢獲殊榮的基於雲端的文檔閱讀技術，我們現在將其稱為 Pyro。借助機器學習，我們可以以非常高的準確率掃描大量文件。這對於我們引入大型投資組合來說是一個巨大的優勢。我們現在正在向其他抵押貸款公司授權這項技術，我很高興地報告我們剛剛簽約了我們的第一個客戶。

And you're all familiar with our Xome Auction Exchange, which is a digital cloud-native platform with very strong margins and a steadily growing #2 market share. Most of the revenues now come from third-party clients, and I just want to remind you that we built the exchange from scratch.

你們都熟悉我們的 Xome Auction Exchange，這是一個數位雲端原生平台，具有非常強勁的利潤率和穩定成長的第二大市場份額。現在大部分的收入來自第三方客戶，只是想提醒大家，我們從頭開始建立交易所。

And that brings us up to the deal with Sagent Lending, which we announced this morning. Let's start with the terms. We're conveying the rights to our proprietary servicing platform to Sagent, which is owned by Warburg Pincus and Fiserv, and provides mortgage servicing solutions to banks and other lenders. Sagent, in turn, will integrate our native cloud platform onto a cloud-based core and offer the first ever cloud-native servicing platform to the mortgage industry. In exchange for the rights to our platform, Sagent is providing us with an equity stake in their company and 2 Board seats. In the first quarter, we expect to record a pretax gain of approximately $225 million related to the sale. And we would fully expect this equity position to appreciate significantly as Sagent delivers on its mission of disrupting the status quo.

這就引出了我們今天早上宣布的與 Sagent Lending 的交易。讓我們從條款開始。我們正在將我們專有服務平台的權利轉讓給 Sagent，該平台由 Warburg Pincus 和 Fiserv 擁有，為銀行和其他貸方提供抵押貸款服務解決方案。反過來，Sagent 將把我們的原生雲端平台整合到基於雲端的核心上，並為抵押貸款行業提供第一個雲端原生服務平台。作為對我們平台的使用權的交換，Sagent 向我們提供他們公司的股權和 2 個董事會席位。在第一季度，我們預計與此出售相關的稅前收益約為 2.25 億美元。我們完全預計，隨著 Sagent 履行其打破現狀的使命，這種股權狀況將大幅升值。

This is a very significant development for the industry and for Mr. Cooper. For the industry, this will be the first cloud-native servicing platform. It's going to force every single operator to migrate their system to the cloud or face significant competitive disadvantages. For Mr. Cooper, this new platform will drive efficiencies, both in terms of operating costs and ongoing cost of maintaining and upgrading the technology. We'll be able to shift more development resources to the customer experience layer, which consists of those applications that are critical to driving customer delight.

這對產業和庫柏先生來說都是一個非常重大的發展。對於業界來說，這將是第一個雲端原生服務平台。這將迫使每個營運商將其係統遷移到雲端，否則將面臨顯著的競爭劣勢。對於庫柏先生來說，這個新平台將提高營運成本以及維護和升級技術的持續成本的效率。我們將能夠將更多的開發資源轉移到客戶體驗層，其中包括那些對於提高客戶滿意度至關重要的應用程式。

And with that, I'll turn the call over to Chris.

這樣，我會將電話轉給克里斯。

Thanks, Jay, and good morning, everyone. If you all turn to Slide 6, I'll start with a high-level summary of our financial results. Overall, we were extremely pleased, especially given the market that's starting to normalize. Net income for the quarter was $155 million or $2.01 per share, which included a positive $46 million mark-to-market; a $20 million loss from discontinued operations, which represents 2 months of activity in the Reverse business, which is now gone; and adjustments of $31 million, most of which relate to the sale of Xome Field Services.

謝謝傑伊，大家早安。如果你們都翻到投影片 6，我將先對我們的財務表現進行高度概括。總的來說，我們非常高興，特別是考慮到市場開始正常化。本季淨利為 1.55 億美元，即每股 2.01 美元，其中按市值計算的淨利潤為 4,600 萬美元；終止業務造成 2,000 萬美元的損失，相當於反向業務活動 2 個月，但現已消失；以及 3,100 萬美元的調整，其中大部分與 Xome Field Services 的出售有關。

Pretax operating income was $156 million, and fully taxed operating ROTCE was 14.9%. Originations produced $182 million in operating EBT on strong performance in DTC, where we saw really nice growth in recapture and in cash-out refinances. Servicing was stable quarter-over-quarter and produced $41 million in operating EBT, largely driven by $91 million in EBO revenues.

稅前營業收入為 1.56 億美元，全額繳稅後的營業 ROTCE 為 14.9%。由於 DTC 的強勁表​​現，Originations 產生了 1.82 億美元的營運 EBT，我們在收回和現金再融資方面看到了非常好的成長。服務季度環比穩定，營運 EBT 產生 4,100 萬美元，主要由 9,100 萬美元的 EBO 收入推動。

You will note that corporate debt interest expense increased from $30 million to $36 million, which reflects 2 months of interest expense related to the senior notes we issued in November. So going forward, you should be modeling $39 million in corporate debt interest expense each quarter. Adjustments totaled $31 million, which included a $34 million gain from the sale of Xome Field Services and $3 million in severance charges.

您會注意到，公司債務利息支出從 3,000 萬美元增加到 3,600 萬美元，這反映了與我們 11 月發行的優先票據相關的 2 個月的利息支出。因此，展望未來，您應該對每季 3,900 萬美元的公司債務利息支出進行建模。調整總額為 3,100 萬美元，其中包括出售 Xome Field Services 帶來的 3,400 萬美元收益和 300 萬美元的遣散費。

Now let's turn to Slide 7 and talk about tangible book value, which we view as a critical measure of shareholder value. Thanks to strong income, TBV finished the year at $43.82 per share. The chart on the right provides you with a year-over-year walk for the 67% growth, which Jay has commented on.

現在讓我們轉向投影片 7，討論有形帳面價值，我們將其視為衡量股東價值的關鍵指標。由於強勁的收入，TBV 全年收盤價為每股 43.82 美元。右邊的圖表為您提供了 67% 的同比增長情況，Jay 對此進行了評論。

To recap 2021, we benefited for more than $1 billion in pretax operating income, over $400 million in positive marks and $528 million in gains from the sale of 3 out of the 4 Xome businesses. In addition, we opportunistically repurchased 16.9 million shares for $600 million at a weighted average price of $33.80. Since initiating the stock repurchase program, we've now retired 20% of the company's shares. And given our outlook for future growth in TBV per share, we believe the return from repurchasing shares will turn out to be extremely high over time.

回顧 2021 年，我們獲得了超過 10 億美元的稅前營業收入、超過 4 億美元的正值，以及透過出售 4 項 Xome 業務中的 3 項獲得的 5.28 億美元收益。此外，我們還以 33.80 美元的加權平均價格，以 6 億美元的價格機會性地回購了 1,690 萬股股票。自啟動股票回購計畫以來，我們現已回購了該公司 20% 的股份。考慮到我們對每股 TBV 未來成長的展望，我們相信隨著時間的推移，回購股票的回報將非常高。

Looking ahead, we fully expect to keep growing TBV per share. To start with, in most environments, we expect returns on equity to range from 12% to 20%, which will grow retained earnings. And to the extent that interest rates rise faster than expected, TBV should also benefit from positive MSR marks. In fact, if we close the books today, we'd expect to record a positive mark of at least $300 million. Additionally, and as we've previously shared with you, we're actively exploring monetization options for the Auction Exchange, which we think is certainly the most valuable of all the Xome business units. And finally, we'll continue to repurchase stock on an opportunistic basis.

展望未來，我們完全期望每股 TBV 能夠持續成長。首先，在大多數環境下，我們預期股本回報率在 12% 至 20% 之間，這將增加留存收益。如果利率上升速度快於預期，TBV 也應該受益於正面的 MSR 標記。事實上，如果我們今天結帳，我們預計將錄得至少 3 億美元的正值。此外，正如我們之前與您分享的那樣，我們正在積極探索 Auction Exchange 的貨幣化選項，我們認為這無疑是所有 Xome 業務部門中最有價值的。最後，我們將繼續機會主義地回購股票。

Now let's turn to Slide 8 and discuss the valuation of our MSRs, which are obviously the most important assets on our balance sheet. In summary, we marked up our MSR value by 3 basis points to 124 basis points of UPB, which reflects the 10 basis point increase in mortgage rates during the fourth quarter, leading to a slightly lower expectation of lifetime CPR speeds and a 32 basis point increase in swap rates, which point to higher custodial deposit income over time.

現在讓我們轉向投影片 8，討論我們的 MSR 的估值，這顯然是我們資產負債表上最重要的資產。總而言之，我們將 MSR 值上調了 3 個基點，達到 UPB 的 124 個基點，這反映了第四季度抵押貸款利率增加了 10 個基點，導致終身 CPR 速度的預期略低，提高了 32 個基點掉期利率上升，這意味著隨著時間的推移，託管存款收入會更高。

Now each quarter, we talk about the number of customers who can save money or access cash through refinancing. Over the last 3 months, the number of customers who could benefit from a pure rate term refinance has declined, as you'd expect with higher mortgage rates. However, with strong home prices, we've seen a very meaningful increase in the population of customers with equity in their homes. This is another large source of business for DTC.

現在每個季度，我們都會談論可以透過再融資省錢或獲得現金的客戶數量。在過去 3 個月中，可以從純利率定期再融資中受益的客戶數量有所下降，正如您對較高抵押貸款利率的預期一樣。然而，由於房價強勁，我們看到擁有房屋淨值的客戶數量顯著增加。這是DTC的另一個主要業務來源。

Also, while interest rates and home prices are important in the short term, I'd point out that the company's total customer base grew by 3.6% in the quarter, which bodes well for opportunities over the longer term.

此外，雖然利率和房價在短期內很重要，但我要指出的是，該公司的總客戶群在本季度增長了 3.6%，這預示著長期的機會。

Okay. Let's turn to Slide 9, and I'll talk a little bit about the impact to Mr. Cooper from changes in rates. Obviously, for all mortgage companies, interest rates are top of mind right now. So we're providing you with some extra transparency into our balance sheet and a few examples of how we benefit from our balanced business model.

好的。讓我們轉向幻燈片 9，我將談談利率變化對庫柏先生的影響。顯然，對於所有抵押貸款公司來說，利率目前是首要考慮的問題。因此，我們為您提供了我們資產負債表的額外透明度，以及我們如何從平衡的業務模式中受益的一些範例。

Now this slide shows you estimated marks for our MSR portfolio in 5 different rate scenarios as well as some directional guidance on how these scenarios would impact our operating results. These 5 scenarios include 2 parallel shocks, which are plus or minus 50 basis points, and 3 scenarios where the yield curve twists. Now so far, this year, rates have mostly tracked the parallel shift we're showing you here. And as I just mentioned, if we close the books today, we'd expect to record a mark of at least $300 million.

現在，這張投影片向您展示了我們的 MSR 投資組合在 5 種不同費率情境下的估計分數，以及有關這些情境將如何影響我們的經營績效的一些方向性指引。這5種情境包括2種平行衝擊（正負50個基點）和3種殖利率曲線扭曲的情境。今年到目前為止，利率基本上遵循我們在這裡向您展示的平行變化。正如我剛才提到的，如果我們今天結帳，我們預計將創下至少 3 億美元的記錄。

As you look across the scenarios, you'll see that the marks reflect movements in both the long and short end of the curve. The long end of the curve drives prepayment speeds, which affects amortization. And short-term rates drive yields on our custodial deposits, which totaled $14 billion in the fourth quarter and which right now are yielding close to nothing. I'd also point out that MSR values are sensitive to spreads between mortgage rates, MBS and swaps and that these estimates include our best judgments on how spreads would change in these scenarios.

當您查看這些場景時，您會發現標記反映了曲線長端和短端的移動。曲線的長端會推動預付款速度，進而影響攤銷。短期利率推動了我們託管存款的收益率，第四季度託管存款總額為 140 億美元，但目前幾乎沒有收益。我還想指出，MSR 值對抵押貸款利率、MBS 和掉期之間的利差很敏感，而這些估計包括我們對這些情況下利差如何變化的最佳判斷。

And finally, I'd point out that we do have in place a very small hedge, which covers the portion of the MSR where we have outstanding line draws and simply want to clarify that these estimates are showing you impacts net of that hedge. Now clearly, interest rates lie outside of our control. So as we think about our business, our focus is on what we can control, such as simplifying and automating more of our processes, grinding out lower unit costs year in and year out and, of course, delighting every customer with a personalized and friction-free experience.

最後，我想指出的是，我們確實設定了一個非常小的對沖，它涵蓋了 MSR 中我們有突出線條繪製的部分，只是想澄清一下，這些估計顯示的是扣除該對沖後的淨影響。現在顯然，利率不在我們的控制範圍之內。因此，當我們考慮我們的業務時，我們的重點是我們可以控制的事情，例如簡化和自動化更多流程，年復一年地降低單位成本，當然，透過個性化和摩擦來取悅每個客戶-免費體驗。

Now let's turn to Slide 10 and talk about the Originations segment, which produced pretax operating income of $182 million, which was slightly above our guidance due to very strong performance in DTC. In fact, I'd highlight that our margin was actually higher in the quarter, moving from 127 basis points to 141. Now that change in margin should drive home the point that our originations model is quite different from our peers. For one, since we're serving existing customers, we have significant flexibility on pricing. And at the same time, we spend relatively little on marketing.

現在讓我們轉向幻燈片 10，討論 Originations 部門，該部門產生了 1.82 億美元的稅前營業收入，由於 DTC 的表現非常強勁，該收入略高於我們的指導。事實上，我要強調的是，我們的利潤率在本季度實際上更高，從127 個基點上升到141 個基點。同行有很大不同。其一，由於我們為現有客戶提供服務，因此我們在定價方面具有很大的靈活性。同時，我們在行銷方面的支出相對較少。

Additionally, we've started taking actions to rationalize capacity as we commented on in the last quarter. And finally, I'd like to talk about structural improvements in profitability. Project Flash, which you may recall us mentioning, involves digitizing our processes after we take an app. Now in some instances, Flash cuts the amount of time required to complete certain processing tasks by more than 50%. As of today, Flash is now in operation across roughly 16% of our production. But by the third quarter, Flash should be up to 60%. So you should expect us to point to more efficiency gains in coming quarters.

此外，正如我們在上個季度所評論的那樣，我們已開始採取行動合理化產能。最後，我想談談獲利能力的結構性改善。您可能還記得我們提到的 Flash 專案涉及在我們開發應用程式後將我們的流程數位化。現在，在某些情況下，Flash 將完成某些處理任務所需的時間減少了 50% 以上。截至目前，Flash 已在我們約 16% 的生產中投入使用。但到第三季度，Flash應該會達到60%。因此，您應該期望我們在未來幾季中指出更多的效率提升。

Now let's shift to volumes. For DTC, volumes were down 8% sequentially and locks were down 12%, which reflects the predictable effect of higher mortgage rates and also the return of seasonality. After working intensely over the last 2 years, while at the same time dealing with the disruptions of the pandemic, many of our Originations team members finally took some time off this season to be with their families, which resulted in a more typical seasonal pattern for the fourth quarter. And candidly, we couldn't have been happier for that.

現在讓我們轉向卷。對於 DTC，交易量環比下降 8%，鎖定量下降 12%，這反映了抵押貸款利率上升和季節性回歸的可預測影響。經過過去兩年的緊張工作，同時應對疫情的干擾，我們的許多 Originations 團隊成員終於在這個季節抽出了一些時間與家人團聚，這導致了更典型的季節性模式第四季度。坦白說，我們對此感到非常高興。

I'd like to take a minute to recognize our Originations team members because over the last 2 years, you have done a magnificent job taking care of our customers and your contribution to the company's performance has been nothing short of amazing.

我想花一點時間來表彰我們的 Originations 團隊成員，因為在過去的兩年裡，你們在照顧我們的客戶方面做得非常出色，你們對公司業績的貢獻簡直令人驚嘆。

In the correspondent channel, funding has dropped off more significantly and that was by design. Specifically, fundings were down 19% and locks were down 39% sequentially. And this was the result of sticking to our pricing discipline in the face of extreme competition. What's interesting to us is at this point in the cycle, we're seeing better returns and bulk acquisitions than in correspondent.

在通訊頻道，資金下降幅度更大，這是有意為之。具體而言，融資額季減 19%，鎖定量較上季下降 39%。這是我們在面對極端競爭時堅持定價原則的結果。對我們來說有趣的是，在周期的這個階段，我們看到了比往來銀行更好的回報和大量收購。

Now let's turn to Slide 11 and zeroing on some of the key performance metrics for Originations. The correspondent channel continues to provide us with excellent exposure to the purchase market, with our purchase share at 57% in the quarter, outpacing MBA's estimate of 47% for the industry. This shows you that we have some strong originators as our clients. In terms of DTC, we're doing extremely well with cash-outs, which made up nearly 50% of DTC volumes this quarter. As I commented earlier, with home prices having risen so strongly over the last 2 years, we're seeing significant growth in the number of customers with equity, which bodes well for continuing cash-out volumes.

現在讓我們轉向投影片 11，並專注於 Originations 的一些關鍵績效指標。通訊管道繼續為我們提供了良好的採購市場曝光機會，本季我們的採購份額為 57%，超過 MBA 對該行業 47% 的估計。這表明我們有一些強大的原創者作為我們的客戶。就 DTC 而言，我們在兌現方面做得非常好，這佔本季 DTC 交易量的近 50%。正如我之前評論的那樣，隨著過去兩年房價的強勁上漲，我們看到擁有資產的客戶數量顯著增長，這對持續的現金支出來說是個好兆頭。

Recapture performance is also heading in the right direction. Refinance recapture rates increased from 40% to 43% in the quarter. And in January, the rate was 49%, as we continue to execute towards our important strategic recapture target of 60%. Achieving that target will drive stronger growth since we'll have fewer relationships to replace, and it will structurally improve our return on equity and cash flow generation.

奪回性能也正朝著正確的方向發展。本季再融資回收率從 40% 上升至 43%。 1 月份，該比率為 49%，我們繼續執行 60% 的重要策略目標。實現這一目標將推動更強勁的成長，因為我們需要更換的關係將減少，並且將從結構上提高我們的股本回報率和現金流生成。

By the way, we haven't talked with you before about purchase recapture, but this is also an area of strategic focus for us since it's another lever to drive higher customer retention. In this regard, we recently entered into a partnership with Realogy, which is the nation's largest realtor network, to provide our customers with access to Realogy agents to assist them with the purchase transaction. We'll provide you with an update on how this is working out later in the year.

順便說一句，我們之前沒有與您討論過購買重新奪回的問題，但這也是我們的策略重點領域，因為它是提高客戶保留率的另一個槓桿。在這方面，我們最近與美國最大的房地產經紀人網絡 Realogy 建立了合作夥伴關係，為我們的客戶提供 Realogy 代理商的幫助，以協助他們購買交易。我們將在今年稍後向您提供最新進展。

Turning to gain-on-sale margins in the upper right-hand chart. For DTC, we're continuing to see slow but steady pressure, which is exactly what we'd expect at this point in the cycle. In the correspondent channel, we began to see a small improvement in January, which wasn't due to any change in competition, but simply shows the impact of our decision to scale back where pricing was unattractive.

轉向右上角圖表中的銷售利潤率。對於 DTC，我們繼續看到緩慢但穩定的壓力，這正是我們在週期的此時點所預期的。在通訊管道中，我們在一月開始看到小幅改善，這並不是由於競爭發生任何變化，而只是顯示了我們決定在定價不具吸引力的地方縮減規模的影響。

Turning to the outlook for the first quarter. This is clearly the point in the cycle where Originations could be very sensitive to small changes in interest rates, especially given that the industry is dealing with certain competitors who are desperate to sustain volume at almost any cost. So while there are some uncertainties, we'd expect first quarter EBT for originations to be somewhere in the range of $150 million to $170 million based on fundings of $10 billion to $13 billion.

轉向第一季的前景。顯然，在這個週期中，Originations 可能對利率的微小變化非常敏感，特別是考慮到該行業正在與某些不惜一切代價維持銷量的競爭對手打交道。因此，儘管存在一些不確定性，但基於 100 億至 130 億美元的資金，我們預計第一季的初始稅前利潤將在 1.5 億至 1.7 億美元之間。

Now if you turn to Slide 12, let's talk about growth in the Servicing portfolio where we have excellent momentum. Total UPB ended the quarter at $710 billion, which is up 6% sequentially and up 17% for the year. And we've talked a lot about the $1 trillion UPB target or more than 5 million customers, which is meant to signal our confidence in the scalability of our platform. Growing to that level will provide us with a huge scale advantage over competitors and should also position us to generate positive operating leverage and structurally higher returns. As you can see from the chart on the left, the growth this quarter was driven by solid execution across all channels, led by strong acquisitions of $43 billion. As we ended fourth quarter, we had $17 billion in MSR deals that are pending. And so far in the first quarter, activity continues to be very brisk. In fact, just last week, we reached an agreement on a $21 billion portfolio at attractive terms, which we expect to board in the beginning of the second quarter.

現在，如果您翻到投影片 12，讓我們來談談我們擁有良好勢頭的服務產品組合的成長。本季末 UPB 總額達 7,100 億美元，季增 6%，全年成長 17%。我們已經多次討論了 1 兆美元的 UPB 目標或超過 500 萬客戶，這意味著我們對平台的可擴展性充滿信心。成長到這一水平將為我們提供相對於競爭對手的巨大規模優勢，並且還將使我們能夠產生積極的營運槓桿和結構性更高的回報。從左圖可以看出，本季的成長是由所有管道的穩健執行所推動的，其中包括 430 億美元的強勁收購。截至第四季末，我們有 170 億美元的 MSR 交易懸而未決。第一季到目前為止，活動仍然非常活躍。事實上，就在上週，我們以有吸引力的條款就 210 億美元的投資組合達成協議，預計在第二季初啟動。

In subservicing, we had some modest growth this quarter coming from clients who won small new pools. As Jay mentioned, we're optimistic about gaining market share in subservicing and are currently in discussions with several new clients. We'd remind you that we're the only major subservicer with a strong recapture capability, which is absolutely critical to the economics for MSR investors.

在訂閱服務方面，本季我們因贏得小型新池的客戶而出現了一些小幅增長。正如傑伊所提到的，我們對獲得服務市場份額持樂觀態度，目前正在與幾個新客戶進行討論。我們要提醒您的是，我們是唯一一家擁有強大回收能力的主要子服務商，這對 MSR 投資者的經濟效益絕對至關重要。

Now let's turn to Slide 13 and talk about servicing EBT. Pretax operating income was $41 million, thanks to strong EBO revenues of $91 million, and that was slightly higher than our previous guidance. The EBO reflects the fact that we accelerated some buyouts for certain pools that would have otherwise taken place in the first quarter. Now with forbearance programs winding down, the EBO opportunity is rapidly diminishing. In the first quarter, we're only expecting EBO revenues of around $20 million. Operating costs were a good story in 2021, and we brought them down from 8.5 basis points of UPB to 7.4. And as we continue to grow the portfolio, we're very focused on capturing incremental efficiencies, which will result in further declines in this metric over time.

現在讓我們轉向幻燈片 13，討論 EBT 服務。由於 9,100 萬美元的強勁 EBO 收入，稅前營業收入為 4,100 萬美元，略高於我們先前的指導。 EBO 反映了這樣一個事實，即我們加速了某些資金池的收購，這些收購原本會在第一季進行。現在，隨著寬容計畫的結束，EBO 機會正在迅速減少。我們預計第一季 EBO 營收僅為 2,000 萬美元左右。 2021 年營運成本表現不錯，我們將其從 UPB 的 8.5 個基點降至 7.4 個基點。隨著我們不斷擴大產品組合，我們非常注重提高效率，隨著時間的推移，這將導致該指標進一步下降。

Now let's turn to Slide 14 and review amortization and deposit income, which are 2 components of Servicing earnings, both of which should improve in a rising rate environment. Amortization was $187 million in the fourth quarter, down from $204 million in the third quarter due to lower CPR speeds, which declined to 19.5%. A further reduction in CPR speeds will drive lower amortization expense, although I'd remind you that this benefit will be partly offset by the higher valuation on the MSR, which we marked up to 124 basis points at year-end.

現在讓我們轉向投影片 14，回顧攤銷和存款收入，這是服務收入的兩個組成部分，在利率上升的環境下，這兩者都應該有所改善。由於 CPR 速度下降，第四季攤銷額為 1.87 億美元，低於第三季的 2.04 億美元，降至 19.5%。 CPR 速度的進一步降低將降低攤銷費用，不過我要提醒您的是，這一好處將被 MSR 的較高估值部分抵消，我們在年底將其標記為 124 個基點。

Now let's take a hypothetical example. Suppose CPRs had been 200 basis points lower in the fourth quarter. In that case, amortization would have been $20 million lower in the quarter, which equates to a full year benefit of roughly $80 million. This example is based on the MSR already valued at 124 basis points. I commented earlier on a markup of at least $300 million in the first quarter based on where rates are today. That mark would push the valuation up to roughly 130 basis points, which you need to take into account in forecasting amortization going forward.

現在讓我們舉一個假設的例子。假設第四季度 CPR 下降了 200 個基點。在這種情況下，本季的攤銷將減少 2,000 萬美元，相當於全年收益約 8,000 萬美元。此範例基於已估值為 124 個基點的 MSR。我之前評論過，根據目前的匯率，第一季至少會上漲 3 億美元。該標誌會將估值推高至大約 130 個基點，您在預測未來攤銷時需要考慮這一點。

Now turning to interest income. We earned $42 million in the fourth quarter. Now this amount, our custodial deposits contributed very little on average balances of more than $14 billion. As Jay mentioned, with the Fed expected to tighten at least 4x this year, we'd expect this will push up yields on deposits by 75 or 100 basis points by year-end. And we'd expect those improvements to continue throughout 2023.

現在轉向利息收入。我們第四季的營收為 4200 萬美元。現在，我們的託管存款對平均餘額超過 140 億美元的貢獻微乎其微。正如傑伊所提到的，由於聯準會預計今年將收緊至少 4 倍，我們預計這將在年底前將存款收益率推高 75 或 100 個基點。我們預計這些改進將持續到 2023 年。

Now looking ahead into the first quarter, we expect servicing EBT to be minimal, call it roughly breakeven. Not only will EBO revenues continue to decline, as I mentioned, but we'll also lose some interest income from holding those loans pending redelivery. But from this point, we expect servicing returns to improve consistently throughout the year as we benefit from lower amortization, higher deposit income and incremental revenues from portfolio growth, and we'd expect EBT to continue rising in 2023.

現在展望第一季度，我們預計 EBT 服務將很少，稱為大致損益平衡。正如我所提到的，不僅 EBO 收入將繼續下降，而且我們還將因持有這些等待重新交付的貸款而損失一些利息收入。但從這一點來看，我們預計全年服務回報將持續改善，因為我們受益於較低的攤銷、較高的存款收入和投資組合增長帶來的增量收入，並且我們預計息稅前利潤將在2023 年繼續上升。

Now if you'll turn to Slide 15, let's talk about the Auction Exchange. As you know, we're very excited to see this platform finally start to ramp back up and generate revenues now that state and federal foreclosure moratoriums are ending. As Jay said, we continue to actively explore monetization options with the caveat that this is a very valuable business. So we're in no rush. With the moratoriums now expired, we're pleased to see market activity starting to pick up, albeit at a relatively slow pace which was, in fact, somewhat slower than we had expected. This is probably a combination of operational issues at the local level, plus we're seeing servicers taking an ubercautious approach wanting to make sure their borrowers have been presented with every possible alternative, including modifications prior to moving forward with foreclosures, and that's exactly the right position to take.

現在，如果您翻到幻燈片 15，我們來談談拍賣交易所。如您所知，我們非常高興看到這個平台終於開始恢復並產生收入，因為州和聯邦的止贖禁令即將結束。正如傑伊所說，我們將繼續積極探索貨幣化選項，但需要注意的是，這是一項非常有價值的業務。所以我們並不著急。隨著暫停期現已到期，我們很高興看到市場活動開始回升，儘管速度相對較慢，事實上，比我們預期的要慢一些。這可能是地方層級營運問題的綜合影響，此外，我們看到服務提供者採取了一種極其謹慎的方法，希望確保向借款人提供所有可能的替代方案，包括在取消抵押品贖回權之前進行修改，而這正是採取正確的立場。

It's still early in the year and plenty of things can change, but I don't expect revenues to really hit their stride until some point in the third or even the fourth quarter, in which case the $50 million EBT that we mentioned previously could be somewhat lower. Nonetheless, regardless of how quickly or slowly the activity ramps up, we all know that eventually, the market will need to clear foreclosures, which is not only important for investors, but will also help bring some much-needed supply back to the housing market.

現在還處於今年年初，很多事情都可能發生變化，但我預計收入要到第三季甚至第四季的某個時候才會真正大步前進，在這種情況下，我們之前提到的5000 萬美元EBT 可能會是稍微低一些。儘管如此，無論活動增加的速度有多快或多慢，我們都知道，最終，市場將需要清除喪失抵押品贖回權的房屋，這不僅對投資者很重要，而且還將有助於為房地產市場帶來一些急需的供應。

The chart on this slide shows the history of foreclosure sales in the U.S., which you can see we're running in the ballpark of 200,000 units in the last few years prior to the onset of the pandemic. And of course, those volumes reflect the strongest point in the credit cycle. Then, with the moratoriums, sales dropped to nearly 0. Now in the next couple of years, we think 200,000-plus is a reasonably conservative gauge of normalized levels. Also, there's a backlog from the last 2 years, which still needs to be worked through. And this forecast assumes that the economic outlook remains rosy. If we see any real deterioration in the credit cycle, foreclosure activity could be much, much higher and Xome's revenue would be potentially through the roof.

這張投影片上的圖表顯示了美國取消抵押品贖回權銷售的歷史，您可以看到在疫情爆發之前的過去幾年中，我們的銷售量約為 200,000 套。當然，這些交易量反映了信貸週期中最強勁的時刻。然後，隨著暫停，銷量下降到接近 0。此外，還有過去兩年的積壓，仍需要解決。這項預測假設經濟前景仍然樂觀。如果我們看到信貸週期真正惡化，止贖活動可能會大大增加，Xome 的收入可能會飆升。

All right. Let's turn to the balance sheet, which continues to be a very good story for us and talk about liquidity. We generated strong cash flow in the quarter with an estimated $171 million in steady state discretionary cash flow. And as a reminder, this is an illustrative metric that represents discretionary free cash flow above the level necessary to sustain the MSR asset at its current level, net of excess spread.

好的。讓我們轉向資產負債表，這對我們來說仍然是一個非常好的故事，並討論流動性。本季我們產生了強勁的現金流，穩態可自由支配現金流估計為 1.71 億美元。提醒一下，這是一個說明性指標，代表可自由支配的自由現金流高於將 MSR 資產維持在當前水準（扣除超額利差）所需的水平。

At quarter end, unrestricted cash was $895 million and this, plus the undrawn capacity on our MSR lines, left us with $1.7 billion of available liquidity. During the quarter, we did pay down those lines by $35 million, which took us back to our minimum contractual draw of $270 million. Now we would expect somewhat higher line utilization this year if MSR growth opportunities continue to materialize the way we're expecting. On the topic of the senior notes, we're very thoughtful about how we term out our maturities. Our most recent offering had a 10-year tenure, which leaves us with a liquidity runway at 5 years and no maturities until 2027.

截至季末，不受限制的現金為 8.95 億美元，加上 MSR 線路上的未動用容量，為我們留下了 17 億美元的可用流動資金。在本季度，我們確實支付了 3500 萬美元的貸款，這使我們的最低合約提款額回到了 2.7 億美元。現在，如果 MSR 成長機會繼續以我們預期的方式實現，我們預計今年的生產線利用率將會提高。關於高級票據的主題，我們對如何確定到期日進行了深思熟慮。我們最近發行的產品期限為 10 年，這給我們留下了 5 年的流動性跑道，直到 2027 年才到期。

Now I'm going to wrap up my comments on Slide 17 by talking about capital and leverage. As you know, we've been managing our capital to our ratio of tangible net worth to total assets of 15% or higher. Today, we're pleased to report that we achieved and surpassed that target with that ratio ending the quarter at 23%, up from 14.5% last quarter.

現在我將透過談論資本和槓桿來結束我對幻燈片 17 的評論。如您所知，我們一直按照有形淨值與總資產的 15% 或更高比例管理我們的資本。今天，我們很高興地向大家報告，我們實現並超越了這一目標，本季末該比率達到 23%，高於上季的 14.5%。

So with that, I'll turn the call back over to Ken for Q&A.

因此，我會將電話轉回給 Ken 進行問答。

Great. Thanks, Chris. And Josh, could we please now start the Q&A session?

偉大的。謝謝，克里斯。喬希，我們現在可以開始問答環節嗎？

(Operator Instructions) Our first question from Kevin Barker with Piper Sandler.

（操作員說明）我們的第一個問題來自 Kevin Barker 和 Piper Sandler。

Congrats on a good quarter and thanks for all the information regarding the MSR and Sagent. So could you just clarify, with Sagent, the $225 million gain, is that because you're licensing the servicing? Or is that a gain because you now have an equity stake in the company? Could you clarify that?

恭喜季度業績良好，並感謝您提供有關 MSR 和 Sagent 的所有資訊。那麼您能否與 Sagent 澄清一下，2.25 億美元的收益是因為您獲得了服務許可嗎？還是這是因為您現在擁有該公司的股權而獲得的收益？你能澄清一下嗎？

That's because of the equity stake in the company.

這是因為公司的股權。

Okay. And so what would that value the company at this point with the $225 million?

好的。那麼，此時該公司擁有 2.25 億美元的價值是多少呢？

We're going to have about a 20% stake in the company. So the value is $1 billion -- roughly, $1.250 billion.

我們將持有該公司約 20% 的股份。所以價值是 10 億美元——大約是 12.5 億美元。

Okay. And so on a pro forma basis, with the roughly over $300 million mark in the MSR and the $225 million gain on -- with the servicing technology, that's an additional, what, about $5 in book value growth? Am I thinking about that correctly for the first quarter without earnings?

好的。因此，在預計的基礎上，MSR 大約超過 3 億美元，加上服務技術帶來了 2.25 億美元的收益，這意味著額外的，大約 5 美元的帳面價值增長？對於沒有獲利的第一季度，我的想法是否正確？

Actually, the $300 million, just to be a little bit more accurate. I just want to be a little conservative on that comment, but I'm looking -- I wanted to see what rates were doing this morning. It's nearly $400 million. So think about that $400 million -- hair under $400 million, [$2.25] plus decent earnings in the first quarter at our tax rate for 75 million shares, it's well north of a $50 tangible book value. It's -- now lots of -- a lot can change, right? Rates have been very volatile, but we fully expect rates to be higher at the end of the quarter. So the mark may move around a little bit, but you're thinking about it the right way, Kevin.

實際上，更準確地說，是 3 億美元。我只是想對這個評論保持一點保守，但我正在尋找——我想看看今天早上的利率走勢。將近4億美元。因此，想想這 4 億美元——不到 4 億美元，[2.25 美元]加上第一季度按我們對 7500 萬股的稅率計算的可觀收益，這遠遠超出了 50 美元的有形賬面價值。現在很多事情都可以改變，對吧？利率一直波動很大，但我們完全預期本季末利率會更高。所以標記可能會移動一點，但你的思考方式是正確的，凱文。

Okay. So your book value is north of $50 on a pro forma basis, give or take, and then you have a 23% tangible net worth ratio, which is 8% above your 15% target. If I do the calculation that would imply you have about $1 billion of excess capital. Why not just take out a chunk of your shares today given that you are trading at a significant discount to tangible book value on a pro forma basis?

好的。因此，按預計計算，您的帳面價值超過 50 美元，無論給予還是接受，您的有形淨資產比率為 23%，比您的 15% 目標高出 8%。如果我計算一下，這意味著你有大約 10 億美元的過剩資本。鑑於您的交易價格比預估的有形帳面價值大幅折扣，為什麼不今天就賣出大量股票？

Well, if someone called and offered us a big chunk of shares at attractive prices, we'd do just that. You should expect us to be actively repurchasing our shares. We think they're very cheap. And you heard Jay say the Board just authorized us to buy another $200 million worth. If the shares remain this cheap, at this kind of discount, I'm sure the Board would ask us to buy back more. So we see it exactly the same way you do.

好吧，如果有人打電話並以有吸引力的價格向我們提供大量股票，我們就會這樣做。您應該預期我們會積極回購我們的股票。我們認為它們非常便宜。你聽到傑伊說董事會剛剛授權我們再購買價值 2 億美元的產品。如果股價仍然如此便宜，以這樣的折扣，我相信董事會會要求我們回購更多股票。所以我們的看法和你們的看法完全一樣。

And by the way, I'd just mention, we talked a lot about growth in MSR. Our capital and liquidity is #1 priority is growing the book. I just mentioned the $21 billion pool that we came to agreement on. While we were sitting here, we just got confirmation of another nearly $50 billion pool that we actually currently subservice. We just got notification that we came to agreement on that. So we are growing very rapidly at attractive prices exactly the way we said we would. We expect this to happen. And we've accumulated that capital to be able to continue to grow the business as long as we see investments at attractive prices.

順便說一句，我想提一下，我們談了很多關於 MSR 成長的問題。我們的資本和流動性是第一要務，那就是增加帳簿。我剛才提到了我們達成協議的 210 億美元資金池。當我們坐在這裡時，我們剛剛得到了另一個近 500 億美元資金池的確認，我們目前實際上正在為其提供服務。我們剛收到通知，表示我們已就此達成協議。因此，我們正以極具吸引力的價格快速成長，正如我們所說的。我們預計這會發生。只要我們看到投資價格具有吸引力，我們就能夠累積資金來繼續發展業務。

And your next question comes from Doug Harter with Crédit Suisse.

您的下一個問題來自瑞士信貸銀行的道格·哈特。

Just kind of following up on the book value comments. Just want to make sure or get clarity around the return on tangible equity guidance. If that incorporates kind of the significant gains in book value that you've kind of already seen in the first quarter?

只是對這本書的價值評論進行跟進。只是想確定或澄清有形股本指導回報。這是否包含您在第一季已經看到的帳面價值的大幅成長？

No. No. Returns on -- returns -- net GAAP returns will be much higher. What we're talking about is operating returns on tangible common equity. And we expect those to be at the lower end of the range just because we do expect compression. We expect some volume to moderate in Originations. We expect some compression. Last quarter, we actually saw the margin grow, but we do expect it to come down over time. And maybe we're being a little conservative there.

不，不，按照公認會計準則計算的淨回報率將會高得多。我們談論的是有形普通股的營運回報。我們預計這些將處於該範圍的下限，只是因為我們確實預期會出現壓縮。我們預計起始交易量會有所放緩。我們預計會有一些壓縮。上個季度，我們實際上看到了利潤率的成長，但我們確實預計它會隨著時間的推移而下降。也許我們在這方面有點保守。

And then in Servicing, as we said, this is a transition year. Even from the beginning of the year, we've seen signs that CPR is -- it's certainly down in January and the beginning of February. So we'll have a -- again, we said a breakeven quarter in the first quarter, but profitability is going to kick in, in Servicing in a big way. And I expect to see that improvement -- start to see that improvement in the second quarter. So low end of the range this year on an operating basis, given the marks we're talking about and the gains, that's not factored into those numbers.

然後在服務方面，正如我們所說，這是過渡的一年。即使從今年年初開始，我們就已經看到心肺復甦術的跡象——一月和二月初肯定有所下降。因此，我們將再次強調，第一季將實現損益平衡，但服務業的獲利能力將大幅提高。我預計會看到這種改善——從第二季開始看到這種改善。鑑於我們正在談論的分數和收益，今年的營運基礎上的範圍的低端，這沒有計入這些數字。

Sorry, Chris, I meant more, I guess, on the denominator, whether those gains are kind of factored into the denominator of that guidance.

抱歉，克里斯，我想我的意思更多是在分母上，這些收益是否被計入該指導的分母中。

Yes.

是的。

Given that your equity -- okay. Perfect. Perfect. And then I guess with the agreement with Sagent, is there kind of -- do you -- other than the gain on the equity stake, do you expect any cost saves from that? Or I guess, how should we think about kind of the ongoing impact of that beyond the equity stake?

考慮到你的權益——好吧。完美的。完美的。然後我想，根據與 Sagent 的協議，除了股權收益之外，您是否期望從中節省任何成本？或者我想，我們該如何考慮股權以外的持續影響？

Well, there's definitely some efficiencies, but in its first year, we will be providing transition services agreement throughout this year and into next year. So our operating costs will not really change much during that period of time. But as the -- the really attractive thing here is that Sagent is going to take our technology that we've developed over many years. Our visionary technology leader, Sridhar Sharma, has made sure that every line of code we developed in the company over the last 6 years has been cloud-native code. And so if you think of our Servicing platform as completely cloud-native end-to-end with the exception of our core, the core, which is owned by Sagent is outdated and needs to be replaced. And Sagent, as part of this transaction is going to replace that with a cloud-native core and have the first end-to-end cloud-native platform.

嗯，肯定會提高一些效率，但在第一年，我們將在今年和明年提供過渡服務協議。所以我們的營運成本在那段時間不會有太大變化。但真正有吸引力的是，Sagent 將採用我們多年來開發的技術。我們富有遠見的技術領導者 Sridhar Sharma 確保過去 6 年裡我們在公司開發的每一行程式碼都是雲端原生程式碼。因此，如果您認為我們的服務平台除了核心之外完全是雲端原生的端到端，那麼 Sagent 擁有的核心已經過時，需要更換。作為交易的一部分，Sagent 將用雲端原生核心取代它，並擁有第一個端對端雲端原生平台。

Now you may -- that may mean a lot to the financial analysts on the call. But I know your peers in technology will recognize that as a complete game changer. And so yes, we will see more efficiencies down the road after that cloud-based core is integrated. And quite honestly, if Sagent does -- if Sagent's valuation does half as well as we think it can, it will be worth multiples of what we're going to recognize next quarter.

現在你可能——這對參加電話會議的財務分析師來說可能意義重大。但我知道你們的技術同行會認識到這是一個徹底的遊戲規則改變者。因此，是的，在整合基於雲端的核心之後，我們將看到更高的效率。老實說，如果 Sagent 做到了——如果 Sagent 的估值只有我們想像的一半，那麼它的價值將是我們下個季度認可的數倍。

Our next question comes from Giuliano Bologna with Compass Point.

我們的下一個問題來自 Compass Point 的 Giuliano Bologna。

First of all, congratulations on another successful quarter and congratulations on the Sagent deal. What I want to actually pick your brain about a little bit was on the MSR comment in terms of probably the potential mark-to-market. I was curious if you were thinking about the MSR and the offsetting portion on the excess spread side? Or is it just the MSR side that you were talking about with the 300, maybe potentially 400?

首先，恭喜本季又成功，並恭喜與 Sagent 的交易。我實際上想請您思考 MSR 的評論，即可能是按市值計價的潛在可能性。我很好奇您是否考慮過 MSR 和超額利差方面的抵消部分？或者您所說的 300 甚至可能是 400 僅僅是 MSR 方面？

No, it is a complete net impact to the company. We always do that net of excess spread.

不，這對公司來說是完全的淨影響。我們總是這樣做，扣除超額利差。

That makes sense. Then, thinking about capital allocation. You referenced a couple of different pools. One, the $20 billion and another $50 billion pool of MSRs. There's obviously a lot of -- that obviously consumes some capital. So that would be great to see. But as we look forward and if you do get markups plus more value for an equity stake, there is -- you're still going to be generating a significant amount of capital.

這是有道理的。然後，考慮資本配置。您引用了幾個不同的池子。一是 200 億美元和另外 500 億美元的 MSR 池。顯然有很多——顯然會消耗一些資本。所以很高興看到這一點。但正如我們展望的那樣，如果你確實獲得加價加上股權的更多價值，那麼你仍然會產生大量資本。

I'm kind of curious about how you think about distributing that capital on the -- relative to capital generation? Because you're obviously building capital and based on my estimates with what you've said so far, you might still be growing capital this year, even if you were to buy back the $200 million and make the investment or make the pool acquisitions that you discussed. Just curious how you're thinking about that.

我有點好奇你如何看待相對於資本生成來分配資本？因為你顯然正在累積資本，並且根據我對你迄今為止所說的估計，今年你可能仍在增加資本，即使你要回購 2 億美元並進行投資或進行池收購，你們討論過。只是好奇你怎麼想的。

Well, the growth we're talking about is pretty remarkable, and that does consume quite a bit of cash. And so there's a big investments for us. As we said, we will use a little more leverage and still maintain what we consider to be a rock-solid consumer balance sheet. And we are going to increase the buyback. We'll buy back $250 million. We will be building capital. And -- but I'd remind you, our #1 priority is expanding the portfolio, generating long-term sustainable growth. And as long as there are attractive opportunities to do that, that's what we're going to do.

嗯，我們談論的成長是相當顯著的，這確實消耗了大量的現金。因此，我們需要進行大量投資。正如我們所說，我們將使用更多的槓桿，並且仍然維持我們認為堅如磐石的消費者資產負債表。我們將增加回購。我們將回購2.5億美元。我們將累積資本。而且 - 但我想提醒您，我們的第一要務是擴大投資組合，實現長期可持續成長。只要有有吸引力的機會，我們就會這麼做。

Now if we get to a point where pricing changes and -- or the stock continues to trade at a discount to book, then we'll be more aggressive there. But at this point, I think our focus is on growth, profitable growth.

現在，如果我們達到定價變化的地步，或者股票繼續以預定折扣交易，那麼我們將更加積極。但目前，我認為我們的重點是成長、獲利成長。

That makes sense. And obviously, there's a lot of potential also with the exchange business. One of the things I was curious about, taking a slightly different approach is that obviously, you've seen recovery in MSR values, obviously, and there could continue to be a strong continued upside in the MSR mark. I'm curious about -- curious how you think about potentially hedging or increasing hedging going forward as values continue to rise to provide sensibility?

這是有道理的。顯然，交易所業務也有很大的潛力。我很好奇的一件事是，採用稍微不同的方法，顯然，您已經看到 MSR 值的復甦，並且 MSR 標記可能會繼續強勁持續上漲。我很好奇——隨著價值持續上漲以提供敏感性，您如何看待潛在的對沖或增加對沖？

Yes. Up till now, the only change in our historical policy, which we were totally unhedged is anything that is financed gets hedged because obviously, we don't want to be in a situation where there's a sudden change and we're exposed to any kind of capital cost. There'll be a point when MSR prices, we feel, are fully valued. We're not there yet. But when that does happen, we'd expect to be more fully hedged, perhaps not completely, but more fully hedged than we are today. And as I just said, we will be using a modest amount of more leverage. So the hedge we have in place will get larger.

是的。到目前為止，我們歷史政策中唯一的變化（我們完全沒有對沖）是任何融資的東西都會受到對沖，因為顯然，我們不希望處於突然變化的情況，並且我們會面臨任何類型的風險的資本成本。我們認為，到了某個時刻，MSR 的價格就會得到充分估價。我們還沒到那兒。但當這種情況確實發生時，我們預計會得到更充分的對沖，也許不是完全，而是比現在更充分的對沖。正如我剛才所說，我們將使用適度的更多槓桿。因此，我們現有的對沖將會變得更大。

But I think the -- yes, the point there is -- the good news is we have the team, the infrastructure, et cetera, in place today to kind of -- as we want to increase the hedge, we'll be able to do that without any additional resources, et cetera. So we're prepared to do that at the right time.

但我認為 - 是的，重點是 - 好消息是我們今天擁有團隊、基礎設施等，當我們想要增加對沖時，我們將能夠無需任何額外資源即可做到這一點，等等。因此，我們準備在適當的時間這樣做。

And Giuliano, I just want to come back. First of all, it's nice to hear your voice. But when we talk about the discount in stock, it's not the discount to tangible book value necessarily, which as we just said, at current levels, would be north of $50, maybe almost $52. That doesn't include the value of the Auction Exchange. And as you heard in my comments, the return to full profitability may be a little bit slower than we said, but that is an absolutely great business, a very valuable business and we recognize that. And I think investors are starting to recognize that. So when you think of our tangible book value, you've got to think of it as tangible book value plus X for Xome. I'll let you figure out what you think that business is worth, but it's worth a lot.

朱利亞諾，我只想回來。首先，很高興聽到你的聲音。但當我們談論庫存摺扣時，它不一定是有形帳面價值的折扣，正如我們剛才所說，在當前水平上，有形帳面價值將超過 50 美元，甚至可能接近 52 美元。這還不包括拍賣交易所的價值。正如您在我的評論中聽到的那樣，完全盈利的恢復可能比我們所說的要慢一些，但這絕對是一項偉大的業務，一項非常有價值的業務，我們認識到這一點。我認為投資者已經開始認識到這一點。因此，當您考慮我們的有形帳面價值時，您必須將其視為有形帳面價值加上 X for Xome。我會讓你算出你認為這項業務的價值是多少，但它的價值非常高。

Well, I completely agree with you, and I think about it the same exact way in terms of potential value for the REO business. Actually, Chris, you mentioned that, one thing I was curious about was I think last quarter, you said roughly $50 million in '22 and then about $150 million in '23. Last year, you made some comments about '22 on the call. I was curious if -- when you were discussing roughly $200,000 foreclosures per year or return into that ZIP code, if that would still put you somewhere in the range of the $150 million for -- that you originally kind of discussed for '23?

嗯，我完全同意你的觀點，我以同樣的方式思考 REO 業務的潛在價值。事實上，克里斯，你提到，我很好奇的一件事是，我認為上個季度，你說 22 年大約 5000 萬美元，然後 23 年大約 1.5 億美元。去年，您在電話會議上對“22”發表了一些評論。我很好奇，當你討論每年大約 20 萬美元的喪失抵押品贖回權或返回到那個郵政編碼時，這是否仍然會讓你處於你最初為 23 年討論的 1.5 億美元的範圍內？

It's approximate. And in this guidance, it's kind of hard to think out exactly how it's going to unfold. So the $50 million that we talked about was really -- and I think we made it clear it was all back-end loaded. We expected revenues to really start to kick up in the third quarter. It may take the fourth quarter, but the $200,000 is just normal run rate prior to the pandemic. It's definitely going to be higher than that because there haven't been anything. Nothing has been foreclosed on -- or virtually nothing other than vacant properties. So it's definitely going to be a big surge.

這是近似值。在本指南中，很難準確地思考它將如何展開。所以我們談到的 5000 萬美元確實是——而且我認為我們已經明確表示這都是後端加載的。我們預計收入將在第三季真正開始成長。這可能需要第四季度的時間，但 20 萬美元只是大流行之前的正常運行速度。它肯定會比這個更高，因為什麼都沒有。除了空置的房產之外，沒有任何東西被取消贖回權。所以這肯定會是一個大的激增。

That's our guess right now. We're in that range. And we'll know more as the year progresses, and we'll certainly talk about Xome a lot more. We're not necessarily going to wait to monetize Xome when it hits that surge. It's just when we see normality return and that's when we think we'll get full value for the business.

這是我們現在的猜測。我們就在這個範圍內。隨著時間的推移，我們會了解更多，我們肯定會更多地談論 Xome。我們不一定會等到 Xome 出現激增時才將其貨幣化。只有當我們看到常態迴歸時，我們才會認為我們將獲得業務的全部價值。

That's great. Then just one quick question and then I'll jump back in the queue. I'm curious if you know the number or the dollar amount of the EBOs that are consolidated for the shares or the loans sort of repurchased as of the fourth quarter?

那太棒了。然後只要問一個簡單的問題，然後我就會跳回佇列。我很好奇您是否知道截至第四季度合併為股票或回購貸款的 EBO 的數量或金額？

I don't know the number off the top of my head. We can get that.

我不知道我腦子裡的數字。我們可以做到這一點。

I do. Giuliano, we ended the quarter at $1.5 billion. That's down from $2.7 billion from last quarter. .

我願意。朱利亞諾，本季末我們的營收為 15 億美元。這比上個季度的 27 億美元有所下降。 。

Yes. Thank you.

是的。謝謝。

Our next question comes from Henry J. Coffey Jr. with Wedbush.

我們的下一個問題來自亨利·J·科菲 (Henry J. Coffey Jr.) 和韋德布希 (Wedbush)。

Let me add my congrats as well. What a wonderful quarter. One stupid question. In looking at these fair value marks, I'm assuming that you don't have to tax them for GAAP? Or am I wrong on that?

讓我也表達我的祝賀。多麼美好的季度。一個愚蠢的問題。在查看這些公允價值標記時，我假設您不必按照公認會計原則對它們徵稅？還是我錯了？

No, you have to tax them for GAAP. Obviously, we're not paying cash taxes, but -- yes, but the TBV number I was just citing and projecting is fully taxed.

不，你必須按照公認會計準則向他們徵稅。顯然，我們不繳納現金稅，但是——是的，但是我剛剛引用和預測的 TBV 數字已全額納稅。

Yes, yes. Okay. No, that's perfect. Secondly, with the Sagent, you've gone down a lot of technology paths. You've created a lot of value and then sold the assets. With Sagent, is this -- does this represent a nice investment opportunity that might be a distraction to the basic business? Or are there aspects of the deal with Sagent and the servicing technology contracts you're going to create with other players, that actually feeds into your basic financial goals for the mortgage company?

是的，是的。好的。不，那是完美的。其次，透過 Sagent，您已經走了很多技術道路。您創造了很多價值，然後出售了資產。對於 Sagent，這是否代表著一個可能會分散基本業務注意力的良好投資機會？或者，與 Sagent 的交易以及您將與其他參與者簽訂的服務技術合約的某些方面是否實際上有助於您為抵押貸款公司實現基本財務目標？

It's definitely not going to be a distraction. It will be a continuation because the team that we have managing our system today will largely transition over to Sagent. We view it as a continuity of what we're doing. And Sridhar Sharma who has conceived and built and leads this team will stay with the company, but he will be a strategic adviser for technology to the Sagent Board.

這絕對不會讓人分心。這將是一個延續，因為我們今天管理系統的團隊將大部分過渡到 Sagent。我們將其視為我們正在做的事情的延續。構思、建立並領導團隊的 Sridhar Sharma 將留在公司，但他將擔任 Sagent 董事會的技術策略顧問。

So I think we will have our cake and eat it too. We're going to be partnered with a terrific company we have a lot of confidence in. We're going to benefit from all the investments they're going to make. And we're going to be able to provide influence on the direction of the company. I think there'll be very strong influence. Over the last few months, we formed very tight relationships with the leadership team, strong friendships. And I think this is going to be a great way for us to benefit. We could have taken a check. And we think this is a great investment that has tremendous amount of potential.

所以我想我們會魚與熊掌兼得。我們將與一家我們充滿信心的出色公司合作。我們將能夠對公司的方向產生影響。我認為會有非常強烈的影響。在過去的幾個月裡，我們與領導團隊建立了非常緊密的關係，牢固的友誼。我認為這將是我們受益的好方法。我們本來可以接受支票。我們認為這是一項偉大的投資，具有巨大的潛力。

Henry, from a day-to-day standpoint, it's no impact, right, on the business. So I don't view it as a distraction at all. I mean, again Sridhar...

亨利，從日常的角度來看，這對業務沒有影響，對吧。所以我根本不認為這是一種幹擾。我的意思是，斯里達爾再次...

Does it bring something -- does it add to your ability to attract new servicing? Or...

它是否會帶來一些東西——是否會增強您吸引新服務的能力？或者...

I mean, I think it's probably not in a material way. Over time, as the platform grows, I think naturally, transfers can be easier back and forth, et cetera. So over time, yes, it could have an impact. But I think not during this transition period, is the way I would think about it.

我的意思是，我認為這可能不是物質上的。隨著時間的推移，隨著平台的發展，我認為自然地，來回轉帳會變得更加容易，等等。所以隨著時間的推移，是的，它可能會產生影響。但我認為不是在這個過渡時期，這是我的思考方式。

One day, I asked Black Knight a question, and I mentioned something about the duopoly in servicing. And they said, who else? And we've done a lot of looking and never really been able to uncover a major partner -- a major party in the servicing business. How do you see yourself stacking up against Black Knight once this product is fully developed over the next 24 months?

有一天，我問黑騎士一個問題，我提到了一些關於服務業雙寡占的事情。他們說，還有誰？我們做了很多尋找，但從未真正找到一個主要合作夥伴——服務業的主要合作夥伴。一旦產品在未來 24 個月內完全開發出來，您認為自己與 Black Knight 的競爭如何？

Look, Black Knight is a great company. Anthony and Joe are first-class executives, and we have the utmost respect for them. But every mortgage company wants a cloud-based solution. Every bank that services the Xome portfolio. Headline in American Banker the other day was all banks are marching to the cloud for obvious reasons. I mean, it provides so many efficiencies to you. Having the first truly native cloud-based platform is a game changer. So I don't want to say anything about our good friends at Black Knight. But for Sagent, Sagent is creating something brand-new that everyone's wanted, and I would expect it's going to be a major disruption.

看來，黑騎士是一家偉大的公司。安東尼和喬是一流的高階主管，我們對他們懷抱著最大的敬意。但每個抵押貸款公司都希望有一個基於雲端的解決方案。每家為 Xome 投資組合提供服務的銀行。前幾天《美國銀行家》的頭條新聞是，出於顯而易見的原因，所有銀行都在向雲端進軍。我的意思是，它為您提供了大量效率。擁有第一個真正的本地雲端平台將改變遊戲規則。所以我不想談論我們黑騎士的好朋友。但對於 Sagent 來說，Sagent 正在創造每個人都想要的全新東西，我預計這將是一次重大顛覆。

Yes. I mean, that's your vision, and I was asking really if that -- do you see yourself stepping right into that competitive fray and offering a product to other people? We hear the same thing. Everybody loves Black Knight, but they want more.

是的。我的意思是，這就是你的願景，我真的在問——你是否認為自己會直接介入競爭並為其他人提供產品？我們聽到同樣的事情。每個人都喜歡《黑騎士》，但他們想要更多。

Yes, I think it's...

是的，我認為這是...

I'm sorry?

對不起？

Yes. Well, I just think it's a natural evolution, right? Sagent is -- has customers today. And they are growing that customer base. And I think to Chris' point, as they add more capabilities, take the platform completely to the cloud, it's really exciting.

是的。嗯，我只是認為這是一個自然的進化，對嗎？ Sagent 如今擁有客戶。他們正在擴大客戶群。我認為克里斯的觀點是，隨著他們添加更多功能，將平台完全轉移到雲端，這真的很令人興奮。

Is this a servicing platform and ultimately an origination platform? Or...

這是一個服務平台還是原創平台？或者...

It's just the servicing platform. And since it's our servicing platform, I tell you it's a great platform.

這只是一個服務平台。由於這是我們的服務平台，我告訴你這是一個很棒的平台。

Listen, great quarter and we really appreciate all the clarity and guidance around the changes in the MSR value.

聽著，偉大的季度，我們非常感謝有關 MSR 值變化的所有清晰度和指導。

Thank you, Henry.

謝謝你，亨利。

Thank you, Henry.

謝謝你，亨利。

Josh, thank you very much. We're going to go ahead and end the call now.

喬什，非常感謝你。我們現在要繼續並結束通話。

Thank you. I'm not showing any further questions at this time. I would now like to turn the call back over to Dave Bray (sic) [Jay Bray] for any further remarks.

謝謝。我目前不會提出任何進一步的問題。我現在想將電話轉回戴夫·布雷（Dave Bray）（原文如此）[Jay Bray]，以徵求進一步意見。

Just thank you, guys, for joining this morning, and we look forward to continued dialogue. Have a great day. Thank you.

謝謝你們今天早上的加入，我們期待繼續對話。祝你有美好的一天。謝謝。

Thank you. This concludes today's conference call. Thank you for participating. You may now disconnect.

謝謝。今天的電話會議到此結束。感謝您的參與。您現在可以斷開連線。