Cohu Inc (COHU) 2020 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for standing by. And welcome to the Cohu Incorporated Fourth Quarter and Fiscal Year 2020 Financial Results Conference Call. (Operator Instructions) Please be advised that today's conference may be recorded.

I'd now like to hand the conference over to your host today, Mr. Jeff Jones, Chief Financial Officer.

Good morning, and welcome to our conference call to discuss Cohu's Fourth Quarter 2020 Results and First Quarter 2021 outlook. I'm joined today by our President and CEO, Luis Müller.

If you need a copy of our earnings release, you may access it from our website at cohu.com or by contacting Cohu Investor Relations. There's also a slide presentation in conjunction with today's call that may be accessed on Cohu's website in the Investor Relations section. Replays of this call will be available via the same page after the call concludes.

Now to the safe harbor. During today's call, we will make forward-looking statements reflecting management's current expectations concerning Cohu's future business. These statements are based on current information that we have assessed, but which by its nature is subject to rapid and even abrupt changes. We encourage you to review the forward-looking statements section of the slide presentation and the earnings release as well as Cohu's filings with the SEC, including the most recently filed Form 10-K and Form 10-Q.

Our comments speak only as of today, February 11, 2021, and Cohu assumes no obligation to update these statements for developments occurring after this call.

Finally, during this call we will discuss certain non-GAAP financial measures. Please refer to our earnings release and slide presentation for reconciliations to the most comparable GAAP measures.

Now I'd like to turn the call over to Luis Müller, Cohu's President and CEO. Luis?

Thanks, Jeff. Good early morning, everyone, and thanks for joining us. Today, I will discuss some of the dynamics from fourth quarter, explain what's driving our growth, talk about our expectations for first half 2021 and why we believe Cohu is uniquely positioned now to capitalize on a strong semiconductor market. Record fourth quarter revenue of $202.4 million was up 34% sequentially and exceeded our updated guidance with business conditions continuing to improve throughout the quarter.

Despite COVID-19 challenges, we executed on our fifth consecutive year of revenue growth, a 5-year CAGR of 18.7%. Cohu ended last year on a high note with all-time record orders and strong momentum that has carried into first quarter 2021. Our operations team and supply chain partners are executing on an unprecedented business ramp to meet customer needs.

Fourth quarter orders were split 29% recurring and 71% systems, reflecting the sharp increase in tester and handler systems orders. Interface business orders increased 30% quarter-over-quarter. But given such strong system demand, the contactor attachment rate to handler sales was 19%.

Orders improved sequentially across all semiconductor markets, with automotive increasing nearly 200% quarter-over-quarter. Estimated test sale utilization increased 5 points quarter-over-quarter to 86% at the end of December and explain some of the dynamics driving strong business momentum.

Mobility continues to be a significant segment for Cohu as we enable the introduction of next-generation 5G smartphones deployed by all major U.S., Korean and Chinese manufacturers.

Our interface group had a key design win at a leading foundry in Taiwan and OSAT in Korea for testing millimeter wave RF devices. We're not only excited by demonstrating our capabilities in high frequency, but also for the success of our new probe head solution against well-established competitors in wafer test.

The new cRacer interface platform will be used initially in preproduction and product qualifications. We expect volume orders starting late this year or early next. Our ATE business experienced a steep ramp, driven by the new RedDragon instrumentation suite for testing RF front end ICs and WiFi 6 devices.

Along with RF, we had good traction in display driver, bar management and application processor tests for smartphones, which marks an expansion of our addressable market. Tester orders doubled year-over-year, demonstrating the success of our new product portfolio and complementary value that the 2018 Xcerra acquisition brought to Cohu.

Moving on to vision inspection. Our Neon platform continued to capture new customers and applications in the fourth quarter. We estimate that we gained 3 to 4 points share last year, positioning Cohu as the second largest supplier of automated optical inspection systems for the back-end semiconductor market. We've entered 2021 with significant momentum in this segment and are optimistic about business prospects as we continue to expand our portfolio solutions with greater vision accuracy, speed and the deployment of artificial intelligence to improve inspection yield.

Our sales teams have been incredibly busy, securing key design wins in China and Taiwan with our testers, handlers, inspection equipment and contactors, further expanding our market in penetration in the mobility segment. Kudos to our sales team and the great efforts of engineering in developing new capabilities in our products.

Turning to the automotive segment. Orders tripled quarter-over-quarter as semiconductor companies ramp to catch up to auto demand, marking a significant shift in business to our power electronics, battery management and ADAS processors.

It comes as no surprise that this new wave of growth in automotive coincides with all major auto manufacturers announcing the introduction of electric vehicles and new driver assist technologies.

We estimate that about 20% of our automotive handler orders were for testing semiconductors for EVs. Driver assist or ADAS is also particularly interesting as it marks the confluence of extreme temperature testing with active thermal control, making it a perfect storm of complex thermal management requirements. We like these challenging technical problems that ultimately impact yield, offering us an opportunity to address customer needs with our proprietary thermal technology.

Approximately 5% of our automotive handler orders were for testing ADAS processors. And our forecast is increasing in first half of 2021, as this technology starts to ramp in volume production. Orders in the industrial and consumer segments also improved quarter-over-quarter. Our gravity and pick-and-place handler businesses are once again ramping in support of testing high-power electronics used in industrial and medical applications. We have ongoing handler qualifications for testing gaming processors, where we can optimize yield by actively managing thermal dissipation, along with testers for display driver and power management ICs. In the computing segment, orders practically doubled quarter-over-quarter. And in IOT, IOV and optoelectronics, orders were up substantially, driven mainly by our success in testing new RF devices.

Now looking ahead. We're encouraged by momentum across all Cohu's main market segments and by customer interest in our new products and integrated test cell solutions. We will be guiding first quarter revenue and profitability up and expect second quarter to be sequentially stronger. We're motivated to accelerate time to yield and productivity for our customers, being diligent about new product investments and incredibly focused on improving margin and profitability.

So why is Cohu doing so well? And why is our outlook so positive? We have made substantial improvements to our product portfolio for the past 2 years that have positioned the company for continued growth over the midterm. The 5G deployment is accelerating, and analysts are now projecting greater than double year-over-year volume penetration of this technology in 2021.

Test complexity is also increasing, leading to higher system ASPs and greater test intensity. Additionally, smartphone units are projected to grow again this year, further compounding the opportunity for selling RF, display driver and power management IC testers, handlers and contactors. But the Cohu story is not limited to 5G. As mentioned earlier, we're capturing new customer opportunities in RF transceivers, WiFi 6, general IoT and even application processor tests with some of these being new additions to our addressable market.

Last year, we saw new U.S. export restrictions to Huawei. I believe everyone understands that smartphone demand is increasing. And there has been a redistribution of business that translates into incremental orders for Cohu products from customers where we have greater share and new opportunities, particularly in China.

There are significant positive trends in the automotive segment, starting with many auto companies suggesting a complete transition to EV technology in the coming decade and significant government mandates to go carbon neutral in China, Europe and the U.S. Another exciting trend is the rapid adoption of ADAS technologies in vehicles, which expands the use of processors, sensors, microcontrollers, displays and our FICs. We believe our sales growth to the automotive segment will benefit about equally from IC content growth and a projected vehicle SAAR in the mid-teens this year.

With the successful integration of Xcerra now behind us, we held an analyst and investor conference early December, describing a new target financial model in the path to 14% revenue CAGR to $940 million and 23% operating income over the midterm.

This comes from enabling testing of new high-growth technologies in RF, battery management and ADAS processors and gaining traction in automated optical inspection.

Now I'd like to turn it over to Jeff to provide details on fourth quarter results and share first quarter guidance.

Thanks, Luis. Before I walk through the Q4 results and Q1 guidance, please note that my comments that follow all refer to non-GAAP figures. Information about the non-GAAP financial measures, including the GAAP to non-GAAP reconciliations and other disclosures, are included in the accompanying earnings release and investor presentation, which are located on the Investor page of our website.

Now turning to the financial results. Q4 revenue was $202.4 million and $4.9 million higher than the midpoint of our updated guidance range provided on December 1. Fiscal year 2020 revenue was $636 million, growing 9% over 2019 and with nearly 19% CAGR over the last 5 years. In Q4 and fiscal year 2020, no customer accounted for 10% or more of sales.

In the fourth quarter, Cohu's gross margin was 45%. Operating expenses were $51.7 million and lower than guidance as we continue to optimize our expense structure. COVID-19-driven temporary cost reductions were lifted at the beginning of November. Fourth quarter non-GAAP operating income was 19.4% of revenue, and adjusted EBITDA was 20.9%.

Return on invested capital was approximately 54% in the fourth quarter and approximately 26% for the full fiscal year 2020. The Q4 results exceeded our new target model objective to make investments with ROIC of 30% or higher. Cohu's non-GAAP effective tax rate for Q4 was approximately 11% and lower than guidance, primarily as a result of losses generated in Europe, combined with U.S. income offset by NOLs. Non-GAAP EPS for the fourth quarter was $0.73 and $1.19 for the full year 2020.

Now turning to the business model. We recently introduced a new midterm target financial model that delivers higher profitability at all revenue points. Our new target model achieves $3.60 of annual EPS on revenue of $940 million versus $3 of EPS in our previous model. This represents a 20% increase in profitability at target revenue. On a quarterly basis, the new model reflects an increase in EPS of $0.10, growing to $0.15 at target revenue of $235 million.

Gross margin expands with higher revenue, and operating expenses are reduced from the previous model, but sufficient to support product development and other business investments. The combined effect is an improvement in operating leverage with about 45% of incremental revenue falling through to operating income. We've added free cash flow targets at each level of quarterly revenue, CapEx requirements are relatively modest and are modeled at $20 million per year.

Now moving to the balance sheet. Our cash balance at the end of Q4 was approximately $170 million and supports our operational needs of approximately $80 million plus debt service and funding the inventory and receivables associated with the steep production ramp we're currently experiencing.

During Q4, Cohu reduced debt by approximately $20 million and deleveraging continues to be a capital allocation priority. Cash flow from operations during Q4 was $22.3 million and CapEx for the fourth quarter was $5.1 million, driven mainly by purchases of equipment to increase contactor manufacturing capacity.

The first quarter revenue forecast improved significantly since the directional guidance we provided in early December. For Q1, we're guiding sales to be between $212 million to $232 million. The low end of the revenue range considers some supply chain uncertainty caused by COVID-19 and potential risk associated with book and bill and customer acceptance, which is required for revenue.

Gross margin in Q1 is expected to be between 45% to 46%, and Q1 operating expenses are projected to be between $53 million to $54 million. We expect Q1 adjusted EBITDA at the midpoint of guidance to be approximately 23%. The Q1 forecast non-GAAP tax rate is approximately 22% at the midpoint of guidance.

Most of Cohu's profits are generated offshore and subject to statutory tax rates in various foreign jurisdictions. Income taxes on profits generated in the U.S. are mitigated by net operating loss carryforwards. The diluted share count for Q1 is expected to be approximately 43.7 million shares.

With increasing backlog and strong order forecast across various markets, we have improved visibility into the second quarter and are now projecting revenue to be up 5% to 10% from the midpoint of Q1 guidance. As order momentum and design wins continue in the first quarter, this is shaping up to be a strong year for Cohu, and we remain optimistic about our midterm prospects, enabling testing of new high-growth technologies in RF, battery management and ADAS processors, along with gains in automated optical inspection.

That concludes our prepared remarks. And now we'll open the call to questions.

(Operator Instructions) Our first question comes from the line of Brian Chin with Stifel.

Congratulations on the strong results, and I appreciate you letting us ask a few questions. Maybe the first question I had was a lot of interesting things to pick through here. But from a demand perspective, it's been maybe 3 years, Luis, since you've seen this much strength from the automotive market. I think based on your commentary about EVs, ADAS, all of other things we can read about anecdotally, if the TAM shift is going to potentially be higher this year or certainly in the following years. And clearly, your SAM now is also much higher than it was 3 years ago. So I guess maybe on some sort of a quantitative measurement, can you give us a sense of sort of how much larger is the auto market? Just this year, right, might be versus 3 years ago and/or so your revenue level might be kind of period to period. And I'm not saying that, that's sort of an end point, but just kind of if you could give us a sense of that comparison.

Brian, yes, thanks for asking and joining us. So if you look back 3 years ago, I think you're referencing then 2017 or even going into 2018, which was a good year for the automotive market. It's hard to pinpoint an exact number here, but what I'm -- what we're thinking is that the automotive market is going to be about maybe low teens to high teens, maybe up to 18% larger in the semiconductor side for us or for the capital equipment side this year relative to what it was at the last strong cycle.

Okay. Yes, that's helpful. Appreciate that. A couple of other questions. The -- from a supply, maybe timing of your deliveries this year. There's obviously, again, a lot of articles about current shortages of wafers, extend semi lead times for markets like auto. And while that's not readily apparent, I think, in your strong first half outlook, has this dynamic caused any noticeable changes or delays in your shipment schedule? And also what's kind of the present set of your lead times for things like test handlers or test equipment? And how are you managing through any challenges?

No. We haven't had any delays caused by supply chain or the -- like you said, the shortage of semiconductors that you read on the news, that hasn't impacted our builds. To lead times, they have extended. I mean there are multiple ways of looking at lead time. We tend to look at it as a what is the lead time at a 75th percentile of our product shipments. There's always custom and more difficult configurations that take longer. But looking at the 75th percentile, our handler lead times right now are about 14.5 weeks. Testers approximately 12 weeks. Contactors are running at about 6 weeks. So that's about where we're hovering right now on lead times.

Good. It sounds like within reasonable ranges, maybe high, but other equipment out there sounds like it had more stretched lead times, a lot more than you. Maybe one last question here for Jeff. In terms of the first quarter outlook and the revenue range, the gross margin seemed a little bit lower than what the target model suggests, the OpEx as a percent of sales also as an offset seems lower as well. And so it kind of neutralizes probably within -- in the range of your EPS that you've talked about at those revenue ranges. But if you could kind of just talk to the dynamics that are causing gross margins to be within that range and OpEx to be within that range.

Yes, Brian, that's an accurate observation. Gross margin's down a bit in Q1, but offset by the reduction in operating expenses to maintain that target profitability. So what we're seeing really is it's a product mix with -- part of the story is product mix seen a steep increase in systems orders and revenue. And this is mainly handlers, testers, but handlers that have a gross margin lower than corporate target. Just to give you a sort of a point of reference here, total systems revenue expected to be about 67% in Q1. The normal ratio or percentage for system revenue is about 55%. So it's up significantly. Now recurring as we know, just by its nature, it's not going to spike up or down quarter-over-quarter. And so recurring revenue will increase, but it will increase over time as a result of the increased shipments.

The second piece of the story is we continue to work on the contactor manufacturing transition and really continue to work towards bringing costs down and bringing that gross margin in line with expectations. So I'd say, first order of magnitude is mix. And then secondarily, we continue to work on the contactor margin.

Our next question comes from Charles Shi with Needham & Company.

If I hear you correctly, I think you provided an early look for second quarter, about 5% to 10% up from first quarter. Maybe this is a little bit further ahead. I wonder what's your outlook for the second half this year. If I look at your historical performance, it looks like the third quarter tend to be slightly -- was seasonally sequentially down by maybe mid-single digit to up to low teens. Is that kind of seasonality we should be expecting this year? Or since this year is such a strong recovery year, that may change? Any color would be great.

Charles, this is Luis. Yes, thanks for the question. We don't have that much visibility yet into the second half of the year. As you can see from our lead times, what we're booking now in the first quarter is shipping late second quarter. So we'll gain more visibility here in the next 3 months. We know there is an incredible strong dynamic in the automotive market's view and the same in mobility. And obviously, there should be a second sort of ramp towards midyear in mobility for cell phone launches in the second half of the year. But we don't know exactly how that's going to shape for Q3 or Q4 at this time.

Got it. Got it. Maybe my next question, really a little bit of follow-up to Brian's question on gross margin, some of the dynamics. Jeff, you provided first quarter, second order dynamics there. I wonder whether there is any third order factors there related to any of the supply chain constraints. You did say you don't really see any of the chip shortages impacting your shipment, but I wonder, given such a surge in demand, whether you are incurring a little bit higher -- higher cost by expedition fees or something like that? And whether those more of the one-term nature -- onetime nature items would go away gradually late into this year.

Charles, no, that's not the case, not to this point and not forecasted for Q1 either. Operations and supply chain has done a very good job so far, working with suppliers, prepping suppliers, scheduling materials. And we've been able to do that without expedite fees and things of that nature. So from an operational standpoint, costs are pretty much in line with expectations. It really comes back to mix and then continuing to improve contactor margin.

Got it. Got it. Maybe my next question is a little bit about your capital allocation. We know you want to prioritize debt repayment and potentially looking for M&A opportunities. But with your business in 2021 going back to the '17 or '18 level on a pro forma basis, are you -- what's your thought about resuming or returning to the dividend program? Any thoughts on that?

That will be ultimately up to the Board of Directors, and they -- for their assessment and decision on that. We, as a management team, are clearly focused on generating as much free cash flow as possible and reducing our leverage.

Our next question comes from Krish Sankar with Cowen & Company.

And congrats on the good results. I have a feel then, Jeff or Luis, a lot of your strength in autos is coming from the handler side. Do you think you have any shot in making inroads in testers? Or do you think there are much bigger players out there, it would be difficult?

Krish, this is Luis. And that's a very good question. Yes, we would like to make inroads with the tester. There are limitations in our current capability to do that today.

We do have some tester business on the auto side. It's not nonexistent, by the way. But you're correct, it's much stronger on the handler business. It's also strong on the contactor business that has greater exposure to the auto side, sort of that Tri-temp thermally challenging test conditions. But yes, I hope that in the future, we'll be able to have more dialogue about the tester business into the auto, but not so much at this time, Krish.

Got it. Got it. No worries. And then, Luis, I think I asked this question in the past. Is there a way to figure out of your mobility orders or sales, how much is coming from 5G?

Yes. Sure. From the tester side, we looked at it this way. There's about half of our tester business may be related to RFICs. And in 2020, we estimated about half of that was 5G-related. On the handler side, it's a little bit more difficult because we know we're testing RFICs, or handling RFICs, or small P mix going into mobility applications, but we don't have that final use knowledge whether it is necessarily a 5G or 4G in all cases. We do have a measurable handler business in mobility as well. But I can't quite parse that out for 5G. So it's easier for me to say on the tester side.

Fair enough. That's good color. And then just the last question. If I remember -- if I heard it right, I think Jeff mentioned recurring revenue should grow in Q1. I'm just kind of curious, I thought that when you have the seasonality in Q1, utilization rates might dip down in Q1. Or you're not seeing that happen? Or is it because demand is strong, why would recurring revenues be up in Q1?

No, I know. Actually, Krish, let me clarify. Recurring revenue is pretty much flat quarter-over-quarter. It's the systems revenue that is up significantly quarter-over-quarter. And I think that corresponds to your second point about the utilization driving more system revenue.

Our next question comes from David Duley with Steelhead Securities.

Congratulations on nice results. A couple questions here. Could you help us understand, I guess, for calendar 2020, what the size of the handler market was and perhaps a guess at what your market share might be?

Dave, this is Luis. That's a tough one, Dave. There was a lot of -- there are really a lot of variables this last year with COVID-19. So we don't have a good handle on the market size for last year. The external market data that we typically acquire comes out in early Q2. So that will give us more of a look back. I think we have more of an estimate in view for 2021 than we actually do for the just completed 2020.

But to point to your other question, our handler market share has typically hovered at about 50, maybe 50 -- low 50%.

And would you guess that it was up this calendar 2020 or flat or down? Just directionally, what would be your best guess?

So my best guess right now, Dave, is that it did go up in the fourth quarter. I mean I monitor -- we all monitor what's going on a bit with our competitors, particularly now during this ramp. And I think our operations team is doing a truly amazing job at supporting customer requirements and keeping lead times in check, even though they have extended, but still keeping them in check. And we know for a fact we're getting business that could otherwise have been our competitors' business. So I would venture to say we're picking up some points right now since the fourth quarter and now into the first quarter.

Okay. Change topics a little bit. You have a new model. I think you mentioned $3.60 is comparable to $3 in the previous model at the same level of revenue. You went through some dynamics about the difference between $3 and $3.60. Could you just review what the increases were to move you from $3 to $3.60 on the target model?

Yes, David, 2 dynamics. One is gross margin moved incrementally, and that's driven by 2 things. Obviously, the increase in revenue and better leverage of fixed costs for manufacturing and then mix in terms of higher growth from tester and contactor revenue. I would say the second item, which is the operating expenses, drove more of the new profitability or increased profitability. So it's reducing operating expenses, taking steps necessary to reduce that cost, while we continue to invest in new product development and other business opportunities. So it really was continued tight management of the operating expenses that drove higher profitability.

Okay. And final question for me is we all read about these automotive chip shortages and a lot of automotive production lines have been shut down as they're waiting for chips. How exactly has that impacted your business? And what are your customers saying to you about this topic? And just -- just kind of curious as to what your customers are saying and what your perspective is on these chip shortages.

Yes, Dave, the news on that is quite interesting. What we see from our customers is typically or, let's say, in the past, when they place volume orders, there is a chance to stagger them over multiple weeks, multiple months. Right now, the demand from a customer side is for multiunit orders to ship fairly quickly and not spread them out. So there's clearly a lot of pressure on the operations side to satisfy the ramp, satisfy customer need dates and not much wiggle room from our customers on pushing out shipments. As I said before, the lead times are a little longer on our handlers, but they're not -- they're not outrageous. And we're trying and working really hard to keep it that way because that's what our customers really need at the moment. There's pressure on and not much, I believe, not much inventory or wiggle room in the supply chain to do it any differently, but to ship as soon as possible.

Okay. And then have you mentioned what you think your quarterly capacity is now? And can you flex upward to meet demand if the second half does happen to be stronger than the first half?

No. I don't think we have talked specifically about capacity in the past. But we have -- we have had mechanisms in place to expand capacity with outside suppliers, contract manufacturers, and we have triggered that, and we're executing that capacity expansion.

So it's -- as you know, our tester business is largely outsourced to a very large contract manufacturer, Jabil, which has been doing an outstanding job at supporting our ramp. And then we have sort of a hybrid outsourced in-source model for handler manufacturing, where we outsource subassemblies and do final integration and test in-house. We have had mechanisms and actually have used it in the past as well of doing some final integration and test at suppliers, not in-house.

So we have some flexibility there, and we are executing that flexibility again this time during this ramp. So I think we're all set to support the business needs.

Our next question comes from Craig Ellis with B. Riley.

This is Carlin Lynch on for Craig. Most of my questions have been asked, so I'll just kind of jump in here with a few kind of clarifications. Jeff, you mentioned that the second quarter should be up 5% to 10% off of obviously, a strong first quarter guidance. Do you have any color based on what you're seeing in your backlog around mix? I know that was kind of a ding to gross margins in the first quarter, but based on some of my math, the target model should have gross margins back up around 48% at that second quarter revenue level. Is the mix that you're seeing on that revenue going to impact gross margins like it did in first quarter? Or should we see kind of some of that return to normalcy?

Carlin, yes, as best as we can see at the moment, we're still a little bit outsized on the systems revenue. And handlers just have had incredibly steep ramp in demand. So I think we're going to be dealing with this mix situation in Q2 as well. But then on the operating expense side, we'll also maintain lower costs so that we are hitting or very close to the target profitability at that level of revenue.

Got it. And then you kind of just touched on my second question, but I wanted to clarify. With operating expenses kind of staying low where they are right now through 2Q, would we expect that to kind of have to step up in the back half of the year just to continue to support growth initiatives? Or is this something that if the adverse mix holds through year-end, we can kind of hold operating expenses at these levels?

Yes. That's the current expectation is to try to hold the operating expenses at this level for as long as we can or at least until we can improve or expand that gross margin. So that's the approach, Carlin, is to be able to offset the profitability loss in the gross margin with a reduction in the operating expenses.

Our next question comes from Sidney Ho with Deutsche Bank.

Great. And congrats on the very strong results and guide. My first question is on the order strength that you're seeing across the board in the past few months. Do you think there are still areas that are still below the pre-COVID levels and that you might see some sort of pent-up demand in the next 1 to 2 quarters?

Sidney, this is Luis. Yes, that's a good question. We have -- I think we still have opportunity for growth in the automotive market, to be honest with you. I mean not all segments or all businesses in the automotive side are up to pre-COVID status yet, although I have to say others are stronger. I think there are also opportunities still in display driver IC that haven't really resumed yet to potential levels. I mean the business -- our business has been getting into the display driver IC. So it's hard to say what we were pre-COVID versus now. But I think from an opportunity size perspective, I think there's room for improvement there to pre-COVID levels. Computing has been reasonably strong and well through the COVID crisis, but I think there are opportunities in graphics, graphic processor gaming, they could get stronger from where we stand today. And certainly, in our overall contactor business, I think there's some dynamics there that they could also be stronger than we are today and very much we're focused on driving and making that happen at the moment.

Okay. That's helpful. Maybe just a follow-up to that. I think you talked earlier that the shortages that other companies have seen didn't really -- haven't really impacted you guys. But with order lead times stretching a little bit, how do you feel comfortable that these orders are not panic orders and maybe not real, but not double ordering from same customers that are driving -- seeing some of the shortages? And what are the first procedures that you have in place to make sure that doesn't check?

Yes, that's a very good question. We have had the same observation, have had deep conversations with customers about the demand profile and knowing that this is not double booking or overbooking from a mechanism -- and we're comfortable with the answers we're getting from a mechanism perspective. We have extended our terms and conditions and quotes.

So cancellations, all the cancellation terms have been scratched out, so that we have greater coverage in any eventuality. So we're pretty comfortable, like I said, from what we got directly from customers. We have been talking to customer senior management about this and comfortable with the modifications we've made to our quoted terms and customers continue to come in and place orders.

Okay. Maybe one last question for me. Maybe switching to the product side.

You get -- in your prepared remarks, you mentioned the cRacer test contactors for millimeter weight. You talk about expectations of orders coming in later this year, early next year. Can you maybe describe the capability of this product versus your prior generation? And how do you expect the adoption of this product over the next 1 to 2 years in terms of the revenue growth opportunity and maybe the curve -- the shape of the curve of the adoption?

Yes. So cRacer is more of a continuation. It's a new technology, but it's a continuation of what we used to call the xWave business. The xWave business was a solution originally designed by the Xcerra Group prior to us acquiring Xcerra for high-frequency test and could be radar applications, sort of the beginnings of millimeter wave, if you will, RFIC test. xWave has been very well deployed and used in these applications and particularly in lab scenarios. But as you move into volume production, there are some limitations on the cRacer, particularly for millimeter wave. So we expanded that with a new technology, which we call the cRacer platform here. It's really tailored for up to 50 gigahertz, potentially more as we continue to evolve the product. But up to 50 gigahertz signal frequencies. It has the compliance requirements, the multisite capability requirements. So it's been well accepted and we have -- as I mentioned in the prepared remarks, we have had a design win at a foundry in Taiwan, which is not typical. We don't typically do business with foundries, but this is actually not really a contactor, it's a probe head. And then an OSAT in Korea, which is a final test application.

Now the shape of the ramp, to that question. It will depend again on the size of millimeter wave business overall into 2022. So it's a little hard to pinpoint the size, but I'll give you a very wide range. The way we look at it, it could be somewhere between $5 million and $25 million of business in 2022. But ultimately, I think it depends on our customers and our customers' end customers' success with deploying millimeter wave.

Our next question comes from Christian Schwab with Craig-Hallum.

Congratulations on very strong results and outlook. I have 2 questions. And number one, given the record backlog and slightly extended lead times that you have, what is your thoughts on the second half for the calendar year versus the first half?

Christian, it's Luis. As I mentioned earlier, it's really hard to have crystal clear visibility in the second half. We already moved from giving 1 quarter guidance to give 1 quarter guidance in second -- 2 quarters out, directional indication. And I think that's as best as we have visibility and can comment.

We know this is going to be a strong year, just the way we are right now. We know the underlining currents around automotive and particularly EV and ADAS are pretty strong. We also know the underlining current around 5G deployment, where people expect more than double the units of smartphones with 5G this year and the increase in test intensity. Hopefully, also starting to see more of a ramp in millimeter wave towards the latter part of the year. So we know those underlining currents are strong.

To be able to pinpoint the exact shape of the second half over the first half, it's not something we're comfortable guessing right now. There's not enough data point to put a projection yet in place. Sorry about that. But not yet, Christian.

No. That's extremely fair answer. My last question for you guys is, in my viewpoint, there seems to be a very strategic shift in value in the semiconductor industry coming to the back end from the front end. Driven by trends like you've talked about 5G, electric vehicles, but a lot of all that stuff, as you know, requires advanced packaging, which increases complexity, which increases test types, et cetera. So I'm curious as we get to kind of post Moore's Law, if you will, a lot of the type of chips that -- in applications that you're dealing with, we're just stacking more and more chips, right? Those are chips that we're doing no traits in typically. And so it just seems like it doesn't matter whether it's yourselves or whether it's Kulicke or whether it's FormFactor, everybody seems to be benefiting from this trend, in my viewpoint. Would you agree with that?

Yes. Yes, I would agree with that. I mean there's some new technologies coming out in electrification, as you know. Silicon carbide is -- has a lot of promise in the way you handle and test. Those are a little bit different than what it was in traditional packages or even MOSFETs. The same could be said about processes for ADAS, power dissipation doing tests, the requirement for being hermetically sealed for automotive applications, sensor fusion into modules. So yes, there's a variety of package or packaging technology trends that are impacting the way you handle and test the silicon or some -- yes, the silicon, the device itself. I agree with you.

Our next question comes from Tom Diffely with D.A. Davidson.

Maybe first, Luis, just a general market question for you. When you look at the shortages of chips in the marketplace today, do you think that's mainly a wafer production issue? Or is it a packaging issue? And if it is the former, does that create a natural governor on your business that could extend this cycle?

Good question, Tom. I have a view on it. I don't have a 20/20 vision on this. But to my understanding it is -- or particularly to the larger nodes, not the leading edge nodes. It is a shortage of semi -- of wafers on the front end. So it's a wafer shortage. That's my view.

And I have the same impression you do, which is it creates a natural dampening effect that spreads out the business over multiple quarters. So that's how I view it. Again, it's not a 20/20 vision into the details of the supply chain up to the foundry, but that's my understanding as well.

Okay. So when you look at those markets where you see that happening, how long do you think it takes to add capacity in those more mature markets on the wafer side?

That, I don't have a good answer for you, Tom. I don't know. I truly don't know.

We have a follow-up question from the line of Brian Chin with Stifel.

Just a quick follow-up for me. Luis, you did a nice job breaking down your served addressable markets across product lines in last year's investor meeting. And so I was just curious on the aggregate level, can you provide a rough range of what you expect maybe the growth in your served addressable markets could be this year?

Yes, for this year. That's a good question, Brian. I mean I have what we model for the next 3 years on average. We looked at -- we looked at, for example, ATE, the tester side, mobility growing on average, 18% over the next 3 years. And I think that's still kind of valid for this year, coming up from a strong second half of last year. Then -- so I'm just going to pick on some of the primary ones. If I look at automotive, and that's essentially handler automotive, we have modeled that to be about 21% over the next 3 years. But truth be said, we expect it to be stronger on the first year in the onset now in 2021, coming off of a weak 2020, I don't have at my fingertips here a projection for handler automotive in 2021. But I wouldn't be surprised if we're talking kind of 30%, 35%.

Mobility -- handler mobility, I think it's still going to be sort of that 7% rate. It was a decent second half of last year, and I think it's sort of by that 7%. And then for the contactor business in aggregate, we're modeling a 20% growth. And I think that's also a fair number to use for 2021.

Not showing any further questions in queue at this time. I'd like to turn the call back to Jeff Jones for closing remarks.

Thank you. I'd just like to say thank you to everybody for joining today's call, and we'll talk to you very soon. Have a good day.

Ladies and gentlemen, this concludes today's conference call. Thank you for participating. You may now disconnect.