Capital One Financial Corp (COF) 2023 Q3 法說會逐字稿

Good day, and thank you for standing by. Welcome to Capital One Q3, 2023 Earnings Call. (Operator Instructions) Please be advised that today's conference is being recorded.

美好的一天，感謝您的支持。歡迎參加第一資本 2023 年第三季財報電話會議。 （操作員指示）請注意，今天的會議正在錄製中。

I would now like to hand the conference over to your speaker today, Jeff Norris, Senior Vice President of Finance. Please go ahead.

現在我想將會議交給今天的發言人、財務高級副總裁傑夫·諾里斯 (Jeff Norris)。請繼續。

Thanks very much, Amy, and welcome, everyone, to Capital One's Third Quarter 2013 (sic) [2023] Earnings Conference Call. As usual, we are webcasting live over the Internet. To access the call on the Internet, please log on to Capital One's website at capitalone.com and follow the links from there.

非常感謝艾米，並歡迎大家參加 Capital One 2013 年第三季（原文如此）[2023] 收益電話會議。像往常一樣，我們透過網路進行網路直播。若要在網路上進行電話會議，請登入 Capital One 的網站 CapitalOne.com 並點擊其中的連結。

In addition to the press release and the financials, we have included a presentation summarizing our third quarter 2023 results. With me this evening are Mr. Richard Fairbank, Capital One's Chairman and Chief Executive Officer; and Mr. Andrew Young, Capital One's Chief Financial Officer. Rich and Andrew will walk you through this presentation.

除了新聞稿和財務數據之外，我們還提供了一份總結 2023 年第三季業績的簡報。今晚與我同在的有 Capital One 董事長兼首席執行官理查德·費爾班克 (Richard Fairbank) 先生；以及 Capital One 財務長 Andrew Young 先生。 Rich 和 Andrew 將引導您完成本次示範。

To access a copy of the presentation and the press release, please go to Capital One's website, click on Investors, then click on quarterly earnings release. Please note that this presentation may contain forward-looking statements. Information regarding Capital One's financial performance and any forward-looking statements contained in today's discussion and the materials speak only as of the particular date or dates indicated in the materials. Capital One does not undertake any obligation to update or revise any of this information, whether as a result of new information, future events or otherwise.

若要取得簡報和新聞稿的副本，請造訪 Capital One 的網站，按一下“投資者”，然後按一下“季度收益發布”。請注意，本簡報可能包含前瞻性陳述。今天的討論和資料中包含的有關第一資本財務表現的資訊以及任何前瞻性陳述僅代表截至資料中指定的特定日期或日期。第一資本不承擔更新或修改任何此類資訊的義務，無論是由於新資訊、未來事件或其他原因。

Numerous factors could cause our actual results to differ materially from those described in forward-looking statements. For more information on these factors, please see the section titled Forward-Looking Information in the earnings release presentation and the Risk Factors section in our annual and quarterly reports accessible at Capital One website and filed with the SEC.

許多因素可能導致我們的實際結果與前瞻性陳述中所述的結果有重大差異。有關這些因素的更多信息，請參閱收益發布演示文稿中標題為前瞻性信息的部分以及我們的年度和季度報告中的風險因素部分，這些報告可在第一資本網站上訪問並提交給美國證券交易委員會。

Now I'll turn the call over to Mr. Young. Andrew?

現在我將把電話轉給楊先生。安德魯？

Thanks, Jeff, and good afternoon, everyone. I will start on Slide 3 of tonight's presentation. In the third quarter, Capital One earned $1.8 billion, or $4.45 per diluted common share. Pre-provision earnings of $4.5 billion were up 7% compared to the second quarter and 17% compared to the year ago quarter. Both period end and average loans held for investment increased 1% relative to the prior quarter driven by growth in our Domestic Card business. Period-end deposits increased 1% in the quarter, while average deposits were flat. Our percentage of FDIC insured deposits ended the quarter at 80% of total deposits.

謝謝傑夫，大家下午好。我將從今晚演示的幻燈片 3 開始。第三季度，第一資本獲利 18 億美元，即稀釋後每股普通股 4.45 美元。撥備前收益為 45 億美元，較第二季成長 7%，較去年同期成長 17%。受國內卡業務成長的推動，期末投資貸款和平均投資貸款均較上一季成長 1%。本季期末存款成長 1%，而平均存款持平。截至本季末，我們的 FDIC 受保存款佔總存款的 80%。

We have provided additional details on deposit trends on Slide 18 in the appendix. Revenue in the linked quarter increased 4%, driven by both higher net interest and noninterest income. Noninterest expense increased 1% in the quarter, as higher marketing expense was partially offset by lower operating expense. Provision expense was $2.3 billion with $2 billion of net charge-offs and an allowance build of $322 million.

我們在附錄的投影片 18 中提供了更多有關存款趨勢的詳細資訊。在淨利息和非利息收入增加的推動下，相關季度的收入增加了 4%。本季非利息費用增加 1%，因為較高的行銷費用被較低的營運費用部分抵銷。撥備支出為 23 億美元，其中淨沖銷額為 20 億美元，撥備支出為 3.22 億美元。

Turning to Slide 4. I'll cover the allowance balance in greater detail. The $322 million increase in allowance brings our total company allowance balance up to $15 billion as of September 30. The total company coverage ratio is now 4.75%, up 5 basis points from the prior quarter. I'll cover the drivers of the changes in allowance and coverage ratio by segment on Slide 5. Relative to last quarter's assumptions underlying the allowance, the baseline forecast in this quarter for most key economic variables improved.

轉向投影片 4。我將更詳細地介紹津貼餘額。截至 9 月 30 日，準備金增加了 3.22 億美元，公司準備金餘額總額達到 150 億美元。公司總覆蓋率目前為 4.75%，比上一季上升 5 個基點。我將在投影片 5 中按部分介紹津貼和覆蓋率變化的驅動因素。相對於上季津貼的假設，本季大多數關鍵經濟變數的基線預測有所改善。

However, we continue to assume several key economic variables worsened from today's levels. In our Domestic Card business, the allowance balance increased by $349 million. The coverage ratio was largely flat at 7.79%. The predominant driver of the increased allowance was the growth in loans. The positive impact from the modestly improved economic outlook was largely offset by the impact of replacing the lost content of the third quarter of 2023 with a 12-month reasonable and supportable period, that now includes the third quarter of 2024.

然而，我們繼續假設幾個關鍵經濟變數比今天的水準惡化。國內卡業務津貼餘額增加3.49億美元。覆蓋率基本持平，為 7.79%。撥備增加的主要動力是貸款的成長。經濟前景略有改善的正面影響在很大程度上被用 12 個月合理且可支持的時期（現在包括 2024 年第三季）取代 2023 年第三季損失內容的影響所抵消。

In our Consumer Banking segment, the allowance balance declined by $136 million. The improved economic outlook and a decline in loan balances drove the release. And in our Commercial Banking business, the allowance increased by $97 million. The build reflected the impact of rising interest rates and other factors on certain commercial real estate and corporate borrowers, including our commercial office portfolio.

在我們的消費者銀行業務部門，撥備餘額減少了 1.36 億美元。經濟前景的改善和貸款餘額的下降推動了這項釋放。在我們的商業銀行業務中，津貼增加了 9,700 萬美元。這一增長反映了利率上升和其他因素對某些商業房地產和企業借款人（包括我們的商業辦公室投資組合）的影響。

On Slide 17 in the appendix, we have included additional details on the office portfolio. I'll also note that in the third quarter, we completed the sale of approximately $900 million of loans from our commercial office portfolio that were previously marked as held for sale. The commercial -- the coverage ratio in the Commercial business increased by 12 basis points and now stands at 1.74%.

在附錄的投影片 17 中，我們提供了有關辦公室組合的更多詳細資訊。我還要指出的是，在第三季度，我們完成了商業辦公投資組合中約 9 億美元貸款的出售，這些貸款之前被標記為待售。商業－商業業務的覆蓋率增加了 12 個基點，目前為 1.74%。

Turning to Page 6. I'll now discuss liquidity. You can see our preliminary average liquidity coverage ratio during the third quarter was 155%, up from 150% last quarter and 139% a year ago. Total liquidity reserves in the quarter were largely flat at $118 billion. Higher cash balances were offset by a decline in the market value of our investment securities portfolio. Our cash position ended the quarter at approximately $45 billion, up about $3 billion from the prior quarter.

轉到第 6 頁。我現在將討論流動性。大家可以看到，我們第三季的初步平均流動性覆蓋率為155%，高於上季的150%和一年前的139%。本季流動性儲備總額基本持平，為 1,180 億美元。現金餘額的增加被我們投資證券投資組合市值的下降所抵消。本季末，我們的現金部位約為 450 億美元，比上一季增加約 30 億美元。

Turning to Page 7. I'll cover our net interest margin. Our third quarter net interest margin was 6.69%, 21 basis points higher than last quarter and 11 basis points lower than the year ago quarter. The quarter-over-quarter increase in NIM was largely driven by higher card yields, a continued mix shift towards card loans and 1 additional day in the quarter, partially offset by higher rate paid on deposits.

翻到第 7 頁。我將介紹我們的淨利差。我們第三季淨利差為6.69%，較上季高21個基點，較去年同期低11個基點。淨利差環比成長主要是由於信用卡收益率上升、持續向信用卡貸款混合轉型以及本季增加 1 天所推動，但部分被較高的存款利率所抵消。

Turning to Slide 8. I will end by discussing our capital position. Our common equity Tier 1 capital ratio ended the quarter at 13%. Approximately 30 basis points higher than the prior quarter. Net income in the quarter was partially offset by an increase in risk-weighted assets, common and preferred dividends and the share repurchases we completed in the quarter.

轉向幻燈片 8。我將透過討論我們的資本狀況來結束。本季結束時，我們的普通股一級資本比率為 13%。比上一季高約 30 個基點。本季的淨利潤被風險加權資產、普通股和優先股股息以及我們在本季度完成的股票回購的增加部分抵消。

With that, I will turn the call over to Rich. Rich?

這樣，我就把電話轉給里奇。富有的？

Thanks, Andrew, and good evening, everyone. Slide 10 shows third quarter results in our credit card business. Credit card segment results are largely a function of our domestic card results and trends, which are shown on Slide 11. The domestic card business posted another strong quarter of year-over-year top line growth. Purchase volume for the third quarter was up 6% from the third quarter of last year. Ending loan balances increased $19 billion or about 16% year-over-year. And third quarter revenue was up 15% year-over-year, driven by the growth in purchase volume and loans.

謝謝安德魯，大家晚上好。投影片 10 顯示了我們信用卡業務第三季的業績。信用卡部門的業績在很大程度上取決於我們的國內信用卡業績和趨勢，如幻燈片 11 所示。國內信用卡業務的收入又實現了強勁的季度同比增長。第三季的採購量比去年第三季成長了6%。期末貸款餘額年增 190 億美元，增幅約 16%。在採購量和貸款成長的推動下，第三季營收年增 15%。

Revenue margin declined 31 basis points from the prior year quarter and remained strong at 18.24%. The decline was driven by 2 factors: First, loans grew faster than purchase volume and net interchange revenue in the quarter. This dynamic is a tailwind to revenue dollars, but a headwind to revenue margin. And second, charge-offs increased, so we reversed more finance charge and fee revenue. These factors were partially offset by an increase in revolve rate. On a linked-quarter basis, the revenue margin increased seasonally by 48 basis points.

營收利潤率較去年同期下降 31 個基點，但仍維持在 18.24% 的強勁水準。下降的原因有兩個：首先，本季貸款成長快於購買量和淨交換收入。這種動態對收入而言是有利的，但對收入利潤率是不利的。其次，沖銷增加，因此我們沖銷了更多的財務費用和費用收入。這些因素被旋轉速率的增加部分抵消。按季度計算，營收利潤率季節性成長 48 個基點。

Domestic Card credit results continue to normalize from the historically strong results we saw during the pandemic, consistent with our expectations. The charge-off rate for the quarter was up 220 basis points year-over-year to 4.4%. The 30-plus delinquency rate at quarter end increased 134 basis points from the prior year to 4.31%. On a sequential quarter basis, the charge-off rate was essentially flat and the 30-plus delinquency rate was up 57 basis points. Both the monthly delinquency rate and the monthly charge-off rate are now modestly above 2019 levels.

國內卡信用卡業績持續正常化，從我們在疫情期間看到的歷史強勁業績來看，這與我們的預期一致。本季核銷率年增 220 個基點至 4.4%。季度末 30+ 的拖欠率較上年同期上升 134 個基點，達到 4.31%。與連續季度相比，核銷率基本持平，30+ 的拖欠率上升了 57 個基點。目前，每月拖欠率和每月核銷率均略高於 2019 年的水準。

Our delinquencies are the best leading indicator of domestic card credit performance and the pace of delinquency rate normalization is slowing. Noninterest expense was essentially flat compared to the third quarter of '22 -- of 2022. Total company marketing expense of $972 million for the quarter was also relatively flat year-over-year. Compared to the sequential quarter, marketing increased 10%. Our choices in domestic card are the biggest driver of total company marketing. We continue to see attractive growth opportunities in our Domestic Card business. Our opportunities are enhanced by our technology transformation. And our marketing continues to deliver strong new account growth across the domestic card business.

我們的拖欠率是國內信用卡信用表現的最佳領先指標，拖欠率正常化的步伐正在放緩。與 2022 年第三季相比，非利息支出基本持平。該季度公司行銷支出總額為 9.72 億美元，年比也相對持平。與上一季相比，行銷成長了 10%。我們對國內卡的選擇是整個公司行銷的最大推動力。我們繼續看到國內卡業務具有吸引力的成長機會。我們的技術轉型增加了我們的機會。我們的行銷持續為國內信用卡業務帶來強勁的新帳戶成長。

As a result, we are leaning into marketing to drive resilient growth and enhance our Domestic Card franchise. As always, we're keeping a close eye on competitor actions and potential marketplace risks. We expect fourth quarter marketing will be seasonally higher.

因此，我們正在依靠行銷來推動彈性成長並增強我們的國內卡特許經營權。一如既往，我們密切關注競爭對手的行為和潛在的市場風險。我們預計第四季度的行銷將季節性成長。

Slide 12 shows third quarter results for our Consumer Banking business. In the third quarter, auto originations declined 10% year-over-year, driven by the decline in auto originations, consumer banking ending loans decreased about $4.4 billion or 5.4% year-over-year. On a linked-quarter basis, ending loans were essentially flat. We posted another strong quarter in year-over-year retail deposit growth. Third quarter ending deposits in the consumer bank were up about $34 billion or 13% year-over-year.

投影片 12 顯示了我們消費者銀行業務第三季的業績。第三季度，汽車發源量年減 10%，受汽車發源量下降的推動，消費者銀行期末貸款年減約 44 億美元，成長 5.4%。按季度計算，期末貸款基本持平。我們公佈了另一個強勁的季度零售存款較去年同期成長。第三季末消費者銀行存款增加約 340 億美元，較去年同期成長 13%。

Compared to the sequential quarter, ending deposits were up about 2%. Average deposits were up 12% year-over-year and up 1% from the sequential quarter. Powered by our modern technology and leading digital capabilities, our digital-first national direct banking strategy continues to deliver strong results. Consumer Banking revenue for the quarter was down about 7% year-over-year driven by the higher rate paid on deposits and lower auto loan balances and margins. Noninterest expense was down about 6% compared to the third quarter of 2022. Lower operating expenses were partially offset by an increase in marketing to support our national digital bank. The auto charge-off rate for the quarter was 1.77%, up 72 basis points year-over-year.

與上一季相比，期末存款成長約 2%。平均存款年增 12%，季增 1%。憑藉我們的現代技術和領先的數位能力，我們的數位優先全國直銷銀行策略繼續取得強勁成果。由於存款利率上升以及汽車貸款餘額和利潤率下降，本季消費者銀行業務收入較去年同期下降約 7%。與 2022 年第三季相比，非利息支出下降了約 6%。營運支出的下降被支持國家數位銀行的營銷支出增加部分抵消。本季汽車核銷率為1.77%，較去年同期上升72個基點。

The 30-plus delinquency rate was 5.64%, up 79 basis points year-over-year. Compared to the linked quarter, the charge-off rate was up 37 basis points, while the 30-plus delinquency rate was up 26 basis points, both of these linked quarter increases were better than typical seasonal expectations.

30歲以上的拖欠率為5.64%，較去年同期上升79個基點。與上一季相比，核銷率上升了 37 個基點，而 30 以上的拖欠率則上升了 26 個基點，這兩個季度的增幅均優於典型的季節性預期。

Slide 13 shows third quarter results for our Commercial Banking business. Compared to the linked quarter, ending loan balances were essentially flat. Average loans were down about 2%. The decline is largely the result of choices we made earlier in the year to tighten credit. Both ending deposits and average deposits were down about 2% from the linked quarter, consistent with the general trend we've seen for several quarters as we continue to manage down selected less attractive commercial deposit balances.

投影片 13 顯示了我們商業銀行業務第三季的業績。與上一季相比，期末貸款餘額基本上持平。平均貸款下降約2%。下降主要是我們今年早些時候選擇收緊信貸的結果。期末存款和平均存款均較上一季下降約 2%，這與我們在幾個季度中看到的整體趨勢一致，因為我們繼續管理選定的吸引力較低的商業存款餘額。

Third quarter revenue was up 2% from the linked quarter. Noninterest expense was up about 6%. The commercial banking annualized charge-off rate for the third quarter declined 137 basis points from the second quarter to 0.25%. The second quarter charge-off rate was elevated by charge-offs we recognized when we moved the portfolio of commercial office loans to held for sale. We completed the sale of that portfolio in the third quarter.

第三季營收較上一季成長 2%。非利息支出成長約 6%。第三季商業銀行核銷年化率較第二季下降137個基點至0.25%。第二季的沖銷率因我們將商業辦公貸款組合轉為待售而確認的沖銷而上升。我們在第三季完成了該投資組合的出售。

Slide 17 of the third quarter 2023 results presentation shows additional information about the remaining commercial office portfolio, which is less than 1% of our total loans. The Commercial Banking criticized performing loan rate was 8.08%, up 135 basis points compared to the linked quarter. The criticized nonperforming loan rate was essentially flat at 0.9%.

2023 年第三季業績簡報的幻燈片 17 顯示了有關剩餘商業辦公室投資組合的更多信息，該投資組合不到我們總貸款的 1%。商業銀行批評的不良貸款利率為8.08%，較上季上升135個基點。備受詬病的不良貸款率基本持平於0.9%。

In closing, we continued to deliver solid results in the third quarter. We posted another quarter of strong top line growth in domestic card revenue, purchase volume and loans. The pace of domestic card delinquency normalization slowed. We grew consumer and total deposits. And we added liquidity and capital to further strengthen our already strong and resilient balance sheet.

最後，我們在第三季繼續取得穩健的業績。我們公佈了國內信用卡收入、購買量和貸款收入又一個季度的強勁增長。國內卡拖欠正常化步伐放緩。我們增加了消費者和總存款。我們增加了流動性和資本，以進一步加強我們本已強勁且富有彈性的資產負債表。

Turning now to operating efficiency. The third quarter operating efficiency ratio was particularly strong. Operating efficiency ratio can vary from quarter-to-quarter, driven by the timing of revenue and operating expense. We expect 2023 annual operating efficiency ratio net of adjustments, will be modestly down compared to 2022.

現在轉向營運效率。第三季的營運效率尤其強勁。由於收入和營運費用的時間安排，營運效率比率可能因季度而異。我們預計 2023 年扣除調整後的年度營運效率將較 2022 年小幅下降。

Pulling way up, our modern technology capabilities are generating an expanding set of opportunities across our businesses. We are driving improvements in underwriting, modeling and marketing as we increasingly leverage machine learning at scale. At our tech engine drives growth, efficiency improvement and enduring value creation over the long term. We remain well positioned to deliver compelling long-term shareholder value and to thrive in a broad range of possible economic scenarios.

我們的現代技術能力不斷提升，正在為我們的業務創造越來越多的機會。隨著我們越來越大規模地利用機器學習，我們正在推動承保、建模和行銷方面的改進。我們的技術引擎長期推動成長、效率提高和持久的價值創造。我們仍然處於有利位置，能夠提供令人信服的長期股東價值，並在各種可能的經濟情景中蓬勃發展。

And now we'll be happy to answer your questions. Jeff?

現在我們很樂意回答您的問題。傑夫？

Thanks, Rich. We will now start the Q&A session. (Operator Instructions) Amy, please start the Q&A session.

謝謝，里奇。我們現在開始問答環節。 （操作員指示）艾米，請開始問答環節。

(Operator Instructions) Our first question comes from the line of Ryan Nash with Goldman Sachs.

（操作員說明）我們的第一個問題來自瑞安·納什（Ryan Nash）與高盛（Goldman Sachs）的對話。

Good evening, everyone. So Rich, you noted several times that delinquency normalization has slowed. It looked like September charge-off performance was better than we would have expected. But we are hearing from others that pressure is becoming broader, not just sub-prime, but it's also into prime. So can you maybe just talk about what you're seeing within your portfolio? What do you think about the pace of delinquency normalization? And do you have any line of sight when you think losses will inevitably peak?

各位晚上好。里奇，您多次指出，拖欠正常化已經放緩。看起來 9 月的沖銷表現比我們預期的要好。但我們從其他人那裡聽到壓力越來越大，不僅是次貸，而且還涉及優質貸款。那麼您能否談談您在自己的投資組合中看到的內容？您如何看待犯罪正常化的腳步？當您認為損失不可避免地會達到頂峰時，您有什麼看法嗎？

Thanks, Ryan. So let's just pull up on the metrics here. Our third quarter Domestic Card charge-off rate was essentially flat from the prior quarter, up 2 basis points to 4.40%. Our 30-plus delinquency rate increased 57 basis points from the prior quarter to 4.31%. Both our losses and our delinquencies are modestly above their pre-pandemic levels. Now let's talk about sort of what's happening at the margin here. The trend of normalization in our credit metrics appears to be slowing. In August and September, the month-to-month movement in our delinquencies was essentially in line with normal seasonality for the first time since normalization began.

謝謝，瑞安。所以我們來看看這裡的指標。第三季國內卡沖銷率與上一季基本持平，上升 2 個基點至 4.40%。我們的 30 歲以上拖欠率比上一季增加了 57 個基點，達到 4.31%。我們的損失和拖欠率均略高於疫情前的水平。現在讓我們來談談邊緣發生的事情。我們的信用指標正常化的趨勢似乎正在放緩。八月和九月，自正常化開始以來，我們的拖欠率逐月變化首次基本上符合正常季節性。

We've also seen some stabilization in new delinquency entries relative to normal seasonal patterns. So we are hopeful these stabilization trends continue. Now charge-offs, of course, are a lagging metric, so they have some months of catching up still to do. In auto, we have seen stabilization even longer. Our losses are modestly above pre-pandemic levels, but moving in line with normal seasonality for the past few quarters. So back to our card business for a moment. There's another stabilization trend that we see as well, which is our recovery rate.

與正常的季節性模式相比，我們也看到新的拖欠條目有所穩定。因此，我們希望這些穩定趨勢能夠持續下去。當然，現在沖銷是一個滯後指標，因此他們還需要幾個月的時間才能趕上。在汽車領域，我們看到穩定的時間更長。我們的損失略高於大流行前的水平，但與過去幾季的正常季節性相符。現在回到我們的信用卡業務。我們也看到了另一個穩定趨勢，那就是我們的復甦率。

Our recovery rate had been falling for several years because of the low level of charge-offs through the pandemic. So we've had less inventory, if you will, to recover on. And this was a larger effect for Capital One than for most of our competitors because we tend to have meaningfully higher recovery rates than the industry average. And because we tend to work our own recoveries, so they come in over time and not all at once, like in a debt sale. We've now seen the recovery rates stabilize, although it remains at unusually low levels. Now recoveries, of course, don't impact our delinquencies, but they are a pretty significant factor when -- in our charge-offs and particularly when comparing our charge-offs to pre-pandemic benchmarks.

由於疫情期間的沖銷水平較低，我們的康復率多年來一直在下降。因此，如果你願意的話，我們的庫存也減少了，可以用來恢復。與我們的大多數競爭對手相比，這對第一資本的影響更大，因為我們的回收率往往明顯高於行業平均水平。而且因為我們傾向於自己進行回收，所以它們會隨著時間的推移而出現，而不是像債務出售那樣一次性全部出現。我們現在已經看到復甦率穩定下來，儘管它仍然處於異常低的水平。當然，現在的復甦不會影響我們的拖欠，但在我們的沖銷中，特別是在將我們的沖銷與疫情前的基準進行比較時，它們是一個非常重要的因素。

Now another Capital One's specific point here. There's another factor sort of driving stabilization, but this is -- has been going on for a long time. And that's the stability of credit performance in our recent origination vintages. So looking ahead, the economy is, as always, a source of uncertainty. In our outlook, we still expect the unemployment rate to worsen over the coming year. And as always, we remain very focused on resilience in our underwriting and making sure that we build resilience -- a lot of resilience into all of our choices.

現在，Capital One 的另一個具體觀點在這裡。還有另一個因素是駕駛穩定性，但這種情況已經持續了很長時間。這就是我們最近的創始年份中信用表現的穩定性。因此，展望未來，經濟一如既往地是不確定性的根源。在我們的展望中，我們仍然預期來年失業率將進一步惡化。一如既往，我們仍然非常注重承保的韌性，並確保我們建立韌性——我們所有的選擇都具有很大的韌性。

Maybe, Rich, as my follow-up question, so Andrew, you had highlighted that the Domestic Card allowance was relatively stable. And I think you gave 3 different factors. Maybe can you just remind us again what is included from a macro perspective in terms of unemployment? And if I take what Rich said regarding delinquency slowing and obviously, charge-offs are catch up a little bit. Do you think we're at the point where the replacement and the allowance is going to be less of a tailwind -- of a headwind going forward. And we can now finally have allowance more closely following -- the allowance build more closely following the loan growth?

也許，里奇，作為我的後續問題，安德魯，你強調了國內卡津貼相對穩定。我認為你給了 3 個不同的因素。能否請您再次提醒我們，從宏觀角度來看，失業包含哪些內容？如果我接受里奇關於拖欠率放緩的說法，顯然，沖銷正在趕上一點。您是否認為我們正處於這樣一個階段：替代品和津貼將不再是順風車，而是未來的逆風車。我們現在終於可以讓準備金更緊密地跟隨貸款成長了嗎？

Sure, Ryan. So to your economic assumption point, I'll focus on unemployment rate, although recall that a whole lot more is considered a whole bunch more variables, but we are now assuming the unemployment rate moves into the mid-4s by the middle of '24. And basically hold there for a period of time. But it's not just the absolute level of unemployment. As we've talked about before, it's also the change that influences underlying credit performance. How that then plays through the allowance though, like a number of factors are going into the allowance calculation.

當然，瑞安。因此，對於您的經濟假設點，我將重點關注失業率，儘管請記住，更多的變量被認為是一大堆更多的變量，但我們現在假設失業率到24 年中期將升至4左右。並且基本上保持在那裡一段時間。但這不僅僅是絕對失業率水平。正如我們之前討論過的，這種變化也會影響潛在的信用表現。然而，這如何影響津貼的計算，就像津貼計算中涉及許多因素一樣。

As Rich said, the projected loss rates are going to be by far the biggest driver. And as we've talked about many times, delinquencies are the best leading indicator of credit performance, particularly over the next couple of quarters. And I won't go through the reasonable and supportable and reversion process elements that we've discussed previously, but I will say beyond the credit forecast, it is worth noting that the allowance framework considers a range of outcomes and uncertainties which are generally wider in periods of either worsening or improving transitions.

正如里奇所說，預計的損失率將是迄今為止最大的驅動因素。正如我們多次討論的那樣，拖欠率是信貸表現的最佳領先指標，尤其是在接下來的幾個季度。我不會詳細介紹我們之前討論過的合理、可支持和回歸流程要素，但我會說，除了信貸預測之外，值得注意的是，補貼框架考慮了一系列結果和不確定性，這些結果和不確定性通常更廣泛在轉型惡化或改善的時期。

So at the core of your question, even in a period where projected losses in future quarters may be lower than today and might otherwise indicate a release, we could very well see a coverage ratio that remains flat or only modestly declined, at least in the near term as we incorporate the related uncertainty into the allowance. And so we'll go through our process as we do every year to take all of those factors into account and roll forward the allowance each quarter.

因此，在你的問題的核心，即使在未來幾個季度的預期損失可能低於今天並且可能表明釋放的時期，我們很可能會看到覆蓋率保持不變或僅小幅下降，至少在短期內，我們將相關的不確定性納入準備金中。因此，我們將像每年一樣完成我們的流程，將所有這些因素考慮在內，並每季向前滾動津貼。

Our next question comes from Mihir Bhatia with Bank of America.

我們的下一個問題來自美國銀行的 Mihir Bhatia。

I was curious in terms of the health of the consumer, I was curious if you're seeing trends at all diverge between higher FICO and lower FICO scores, whether it's on credit performance or spending as we go through the recovery?

我很好奇消費者的健康狀況，我很好奇您是否發現較高 FICO 分數和較低 FICO 分數之間的趨勢存在差異，無論是在信用表現還是在我們經歷復甦時的支出方面？

Yes, Mihir. Thank you for your question. So let's talk about credit performance. When credit first started to normalize, we called out that this trend was more pronounced at the low end of the market, whether defined by income or credit score. And strikingly, those were the segments that had improved the most early in the pandemic. So this was not surprising to us.

是的，米希爾。謝謝你的問題。那我們來談談信用表現。當信貸首次開始正常化時，我們指出，無論是從收入或信用評分的角度來看，這種趨勢在低端市場更為明顯。引人注目的是，這些是在大流行期間最早改善的部分。所以這對我們來說並不奇怪。

Later, we observed that normalization was becoming more broad-based. And in fact, for many quarters now -- for several quarters now, every segment was basically normalizing at about the same rate. In other words, if you look at for any segment where it's credit metrics were relative to like its delinquencies, for example, relative to pre-pandemic every segment was kind of on top of each other. Everything had caught up.

後來，我們觀察到正常化的基礎變得更加廣泛。事實上，在現在的許多季度中——在現在的幾個季度中，每個細分市場基本上都以大致相同的速度正常化。換句話說，如果你觀察信用指標與其拖欠率相關的任何細分市場，例如，相對於大流行前，每個細分市場都有點相互重疊。一切都趕上了。

Now we are seeing stabilization come more quickly at the lower end of the market. In fact, over the last few months, our delinquencies in these segments have essentially stabilized on a seasonally adjusted basis. And our upmarket segments are sort of just a little bit behind that. So now I don't think this is necessarily a description of the marketplace per se. This is what we see at Capital One. Our performance has been assisted by some of the underwriting changes that we made over the past couple of years, especially in response to credit to what we anticipated would be the impact of credit scores inflating FinTech's flooding the market.

現在我們看到低端市場的穩定來得更快。事實上，在過去的幾個月裡，我們在這些領域的欠款率經過季節性調整後已基本穩定。我們的高端市場稍微落後一點。所以現在我認為這不一定是對市場本身的描述。這就是我們在第一資本看到的情況。過去幾年我們所做的一些承保改革，特別是針對我們預期的信貸評分誇大金融科技湧入市場所造成的影響，對我們的業績有所幫助。

So as we've been talking about really for a couple of years now, we -- in our originations -- and overall in our credit policy, we were trimming around the edges for things that we saw or risks that we anticipated, and this has contributed, I think, to strength and stability and performance that's now contributing to what we see here. In terms of spend, the spend is basically pretty -- when we look at spend per customer, this has really moderated after the surge of spending coming out of the pandemic. So year-over-year, I mean this is an overall Capital One point, year-over-year spend growth per customer has been roughly flat for several months. So the growth in spend that you're seeing in our metrics is really being driven by new account origination.

因此，正如我們實際上已經談論了幾年一樣，我們——在我們的起源中——以及總體上我們的信貸政策，我們正在針對我們看到的事情或我們預期的風險進行微調，而這我認為，這對力量、穩定性和表現做出了貢獻，而這些正是我們現在所看到的。就支出而言，支出基本上相當可觀——當我們考慮每位客戶的支出時，在疫情帶來的支出激增之後，支出確實有所放緩。因此，我的意思是，與去年同期相比，這是一個整體的 Capital One 點，每個客戶的同比支出增長幾個月來基本持平。因此，您在我們的指標中看到的支出成長實際上是由新帳戶創建推動的。

Now with respect to the various segments. The spend on the -- at the lower end of the marketplace is certainly probably the most moderated, although we -- it moderated first, we've seen spend growth across our segments sort of fairly moderated, but I'd say the biggest effect on the moderating side has been in the lower end of the market.

現在關於各個部分。低端市場的支出肯定可能是最溫和的，儘管我們首先有所放緩，我們已經看到我們各個細分市場的支出增長相當溫和，但我想說最大的影響緩和的一面一直處於市場的低端。

Got it. That's quite helpful. And then maybe just turning to NIM very quickly. Can you just talk about some of the puts and takes on NIM in the near term, particularly on the deposit competition side. Any thoughts on where deposit betas go? What are you seeing from a competitive standpoint?

知道了。這很有幫助。然後也許很快就會轉向 NIM。您能否談談近期 NIM 的一些看跌期權和認購期權，特別是在存款競爭方面。關於存款測試版去哪裡有什麼想法嗎？從競爭的角度來看，您有何看法？

Yes. With respect to beta, as we've discussed in previous calls, there's really a couple of key factors that are impacting betas. The first is product mix, sort of the rotation of customers across products. And then the second is competitive pricing. And within that, I would include the notion of just deposit pricing lags that we've talked about. And so for us, the quarter-over-quarter beta with that lag effect was something like 160%. Our cumulative beta now stands at 57. And so that getting factored into NIM as we look ahead on that dimension, particularly assuming if rates do stay higher for longer, I wouldn't be surprised if there continues to be some upward pressure on beta at least in the near term, driven by those factors that I described, the pricing and product mix piece.

是的。關於測試版，正如我們在之前的電話會議中討論的那樣，確實有幾個影響測試版的關鍵因素。第一個是產品組合，即客戶在不同產品之間的輪換。第二個是有競爭力的定價。其中，我將包括我們討論過的存款定價滯後的概念。因此，對我們來說，具有滯後效應的季度環比貝塔值約為 160%。我們的累積貝塔值現在為57。因此，當我們展望這一維度時，將其納入淨息差，特別是假設利率確實在更長時間內保持較高水平，如果貝塔值繼續面臨一些上行壓力，我不會感到驚訝。至少在短期內，受我所描述的這些因素（定價和產品組合）的推動。

So beyond that then, in the NIM, we have seen spreads widen a bit here and wholesale funding costs are up a bit. And I think Rich talked about suppression in card, but depending on the path of credit, there's the potential at least for increased revenue suppression. So I would lump all of those 3 things together as potential headwinds. But -- from a tailwind perspective, we can continue to see growth in card, in particularly revolving card balances as a percent of the balance sheet like you saw this quarter. And then the other thing that I would note, even though cash balances remain elevated relative to historical standards, I think we will see it settle out at a level that's higher than pre-pandemic but ultimately lower than where we are today as you look ahead over multiple quarters.

除此之外，在淨利差中，我們看到利差有所擴大，批發融資成本上升。我認為里奇談到了信用卡抑制，但根據信貸路徑，至少有可能增加收入抑制。因此，我將這三件事歸類為潛在的阻力。但是，從順風的角度來看，我們可以繼續看到信用卡業務的成長，特別是循環卡餘額佔資產負債表的百分比，就像您在本季看到的那樣。然後我要指出的另一件事是，儘管現金餘額相對於歷史標準仍然較高，但我認為我們將看到它的穩定水平高於大流行前，但最終低於今天的水平。多個季度。

So those are really the primary factors that I would say are at play with respect to NIM.

因此，我認為這些確實是影響 NIM 的主要因素。

Our next question comes from Arren Cyganovich with Citi.

我們的下一個問題來自花旗銀行的 Arren Cyganovich。

Just touching on the last discussion on net interest margin. The card loan yields expanded, I think, 89 basis points, and that was quite a bit higher than the base rate expansion for the quarter. You mentioned higher revolve rates. Is that part of what you're seeing there? And how do the revolve rates compare today versus maybe where they were pre-pandemic?

只是觸及最後關於淨利差的討論。我認為卡片貸款收益率擴大了 89 個基點，這比本季的基本利率擴張要高得多。您提到了更高的旋轉速度。這是你在那裡看到的一部分嗎？今天的循環率與大流行前的情況相比如何？

Yes. So part of it, Arren, is just that if you're looking at yield as opposed to margin is you get a tailwind just from the Fed rate changes, but the other primary and larger factor than the Fed changes is, I would say, largely seasonality which does -- we typically see revolve rates in the third quarter just naturally be higher than they are throughout the year. And we also tend to see a bit more on the late fee piece there. So there is a seasonality dimension in terms of where we are with revolve rates going forward.

是的。因此，Arren，部分原因是，如果你關注的是收益率而不是保證金，那麼你會從美聯儲利率變化中獲得順風，但我想說，另一個比美聯儲變化更大的主要因素是，很大程度上是季節性因素－我們通常會看到第三季的循環率自然會高於全年。我們也傾向於在滯納金方面看到更多。因此，就我們未來的循環利率而言，存在季節性維度。

I'll let Rich talk a little bit about the trends that we're seeing in the portfolio.

我會讓 Rich 談談我們在投資組合中看到的趨勢。

Yes. Arren, so overall, in our Domestic Card business, revolve rates are basically where they were. So for example, third quarter 2023 revolve rates right on top of third quarter 2019, but it's very -- sort of very different within segments. The place that the revolver rate is quite a bit higher is in our partnerships business because we have the Walmart portfolio. We didn't have before the pandemic pretty much everywhere else across our branded book revolve rates are a little bit generally speaking a little bit to quite a bit lower than they were before. But the net impression I would leave with you, so our branded book overall is somewhat lower. And the -- and the partnerships have offset that.

是的。 Arren，總的來說，在我們的國內卡業務中，循環利率基本上保持在原來的水平。例如，2023 年第三季的循環利率就在 2019 年第三季的基礎上，但在細分市場內卻有很大差異。左輪利率相當高的地方是我們的合作夥伴業務，因為我們擁有沃爾瑪的產品組合。在大流行之前，我們的品牌圖書週轉率幾乎在其他地方都沒有，一般來說比以前低了一點到相當多。但我會給你留下的淨印像是，所以我們的品牌書總體上要低一些。而合作關係已經抵消了這一點。

Got it. And then on the marketing, it looks like it was down just slightly year-over-year, still almost double where it was from a pre-pandemic perspective. Have you essentially hit kind of a almost a peak here in terms of marketing dollars? And how do you think the expenses will go from there with respect to that?

知道了。然後在行銷方面，看起來同比僅略有下降，但從大流行前的角度來看仍幾乎是兩倍。就行銷費用而言，您是否已經達到了幾乎頂峰？您認為這方面的費用會如何？

Okay. Well, Arren, the -- on marketing. So just pulling up total company marketing was up 10% compared to the prior quarter and flat year-over-year. Let's just pull up and talk about the big drivers of our marketing. First, we continue to really like the opportunities we're seeing in the market. Including additional -- the opportunities that we get in expanding channels and growing the number of card products, we have the benefit from our technology transformation that sort of is everywhere in what we do as we leverage more data. We're able to take advantage of powerful machine learning models, create customized better experiences for consumers. So that continues to have a lot of traction, and we are leaning into that.

好的。嗯，阿倫，關於行銷。因此，光是拉動公司行銷總額就比上一季成長了 10%，與去年同期持平。讓我們停下來談談我們行銷的主要推動力。首先，我們仍然非常喜歡我們在市場上看到的機會。包括我們在擴大通路和增加卡片產品數量方面獲得的機會，我們從技術轉型中受益，當我們利用更多數據時，這種技術轉型無處不在。我們能夠利用強大的機器學習模型，為消費者創造更好的客製化體驗。因此，這仍然具有很大的吸引力，我們正在傾向於這一點。

We -- also a very important part of our marketing spend and a thing we're really leaning into is our focus on heavy spenders. So when we think about our quest for heavy spenders, it really goes back to 2010 when we launched our Venture card, and that was the beginning of a strategic push that we have continued and accelerated ever since. And that involved more than just putting an attractive product out there. Heavy spenders of course, to win with heavy spenders, we need great servicing, jaw-dropping customer experiences, of course, great value propositions. And this takes a significant investment in upfront promotions and in marketing and in brand building. And this is all about my observation, all the years of doing this business and watching players who succeed here and those who get less traction is very much about a sustained investment and the -- ultimately, the brand that one builds.

我們——也是我們行銷支出的一個非常重要的部分，我們真正關注的一件事是我們對重度支出者的關注。因此，當我們考慮對大手筆消費者的追求時，這實際上可以追溯到 2010 年，當時我們推出了 Venture 卡，那是我們從那時起一直持續和加速的戰略推動的開始。這不僅涉及推出有吸引力的產品。當然，要贏得重金消費者的青睞，我們需要優質的服務、令人驚嘆的客戶體驗，當然也需要偉大的價值主張。這需要在前期促銷、行銷和品牌建立方面進行大量投資。這都是我的觀察，多年來從事這項業務並觀察在這裡取得成功的球員和那些獲得較少關注的球員，很大程度上取決於持續的投資以及最終建立的品牌。

So we're continuing to invest also in building the properties and experiences to drive heavy spender growth at the top of the market. So these investments include our travel portal, access to exclusive properties and experiences, airport lounges and Capital One shopping. And our sustained investment at the top of the market has helped drive momentum in -- overall in our spender business, but we've grown even faster with the heaviest of spenders.

因此，我們也將繼續投資建造物業和體驗，以推動市場頂端的高消費群體成長。因此，這些投資包括我們的旅行門戶、獨家財產和體驗、機場休息室和第一資本購物。我們對市場頂端的持續投資幫助推動了我們消費者業務的整體發展勢頭，但我們在消費者最多的情況下成長得更快。

And we very much like this business. In addition to the obvious spend growth we're enjoying, it generates strong revenues, has very low losses, low attrition, and lifts the entire brand of the company. The final factor driving our marketing levels is our investment in continuing to build our national bank. And of course, as we have a smaller branch footprint, our growth is powered by modern technology compelling digital experience, a cafe presence in heavily traveled locations across the nation and, of course, a sustained investment in marketing.

我們非常喜歡這個行業。除了我們享受到的明顯的支出成長之外，它還產生了強勁的收入，損失非常低，人員流失率很低，並提升了公司的整個品牌。推動我們行銷水平的最後一個因素是我們對繼續建立國家銀行的投資。當然，由於我們的分店規模較小，我們的成長得益於現代科技引人注目的數位體驗、在全國交通繁忙的地區開設的咖啡館，當然還有對行銷的持續投資。

So these are the really compelling opportunities that are driving our marketing levels. And we continue to see great traction pretty much across the board, and we continue to lean into these opportunities. And it's an important part of the creation of long-term value for our shareholders.

因此，這些是推動我們行銷水平的真正引人注目的機會。我們繼續看到幾乎全面的巨大吸引力，並且我們繼續抓住這些機會。這是為股東創造長期價值的重要組成部分。

Our next question comes from Rick Shane with JPMorgan.

我們的下一個問題來自摩根大通的 Rick Shane。

I'd just like to talk a little bit about the depository franchise. Obviously, there's been very strong growth this year in the consumer banking franchise, particularly on the deposit side. Can you just talk a little bit about the competitive landscape -- you started -- Rich, you talked a little bit about the network, the cafes, the less concentrated branch approach. But can you describe what you're seeing sort of broadly in the market where you think you're gaining share?

我只想談談託管特許經營權。顯然，今年消費者銀行業務成長非常強勁，特別是在存款方面。你能談談競爭格局嗎——你開始了——里奇，你談了一些關於網路、咖啡館、不太集中的分支機構方法。但你能描述一下你在市場上看到的情況，你認為你正在獲得份額嗎？

Well, one of the -- thank you, Rick. One of the core strategic approaches of Capital One, it really defines the founding idea of the company and pretty much all the choices we've made since is to look at the marketplace and the Tsunami forces that are driving such change in the marketplace and really try to discern with all the noise in these marketplaces. Where is it that -- where is winning going to be? What's the future of these things? And almost always, it's a question of how technology is driving change. And so in retail banking, we, of course, entered banking way back in the mid OOs driven most importantly by a desire to transform the balance sheet of our company to get away from capital market reliance and get not just a deposit driven balance sheet, but an insured deposit-driven balance sheet, hence, the quest for a consumer deposit franchise.

嗯，其中之一——謝謝你，里克。第一資本的核心策略方法之一，它真正定義了公司的創始理念，自那以來我們所做的幾乎所有選擇都是著眼於市場和推動市場變化的海嘯力量，並且真正嘗試通過這些市場中的所有噪音來辨別。勝利在哪裡？這些東西的未來是什麼？幾乎總是這樣，問題是科技如何推動改變。因此，在零售銀行業務中，我們當然早在OO 中期就進入了銀行業，最重要的是，我們希望改變我們公司的資產負債表，以擺脫對資本市場的依賴，而不僅僅是存款驅動的資產負債表，但受保存款驅動的資產負債表，因此需要消費者存款特許經營權。

Now along the way, as a very important part of our strategy as well. We look forward to trying to get at the forefront of where the world was going to go over time with respect to retail banking. From a heavy reliance on branches. And by the way, I want to say at the outset, I think branches will be an important thing in the -- in banking for as far out as we can see. But you just can't help but see the evolution from the branch on the corner to the branch in your hand and really over time -- sorry, to the bank in your hand, to, over time, the bank in your life that's very digitally interactive and both reactively and proactively being there where a consumer needs it on a real-time customized basis.

現在，這也是我們策略的一個非常重要的組成部分。我們期待著努力走在世界零售銀行業務發展的前沿。來自對分支機構的嚴重依賴。順便說一句，我想首先說，我認為就我們所見，分行將成為銀行業的重要組成部分。但你就是情不自禁地看到從街角的分行到你手中的分行的演變，隨著時間的推移，真的是——對不起，到你手中的銀行，隨著時間的推移，到你生活中的銀行，這是非常重要的。數位化交互，並在實時定制的基礎上，反應式和主動式地出現在消費者需要的地方。

So that's -- that's where we have -- that's the vision that we've been working backwards from. So in that journey, the first step, of course, was building a national savings business that was absolutely central to our balance sheet strategy for the company. But beyond that, we have worked very much to build a -- not just a national savings business, but a national full-service bank. And to do that, it's not just a matter of sort of offering checking accounts, but I think Capital One was in a unique position, having retail banks in -- branches in about 20% of the nation and have a lot of experience with retail banking.

這就是我們所擁有的——這就是我們一直在努力實現的願景。因此，在這個過程中，第一步當然是建立國民儲蓄業務，這對我們公司的資產負債表策略絕對至關重要。但除此之外，我們還付出了很大努力，不僅建立了一家國民儲蓄企業，而且建立了一家全國性的全方位服務銀行。要做到這一點，這不僅僅是提供支票帳戶的問題，而且我認為第一資本處於獨特的地位，在全國約 20% 的地區擁有零售銀行分支機構，並且在零售方面擁有豐富的經驗銀行業。

Our view was if we're going to win in National Banking, we actually have to digitize the entire customer experience and just about everything that you can get in a branch to be able to -- for customers to get that on a digital basis. So what we've done over the years is build a full service digital, national bank. And we -- then as we have built this, we have then leveraged the big customer base we have, the national brand that we have and really added to our marketing and everywhere in our strategy, the build-out of this national bank, and we're getting a lot of traction -- nice growth and a lot of traction on the brand side as consumers realize that Capital One, even though the (inaudible) branches across the nation really is a full service national bank. So that's been our strategy for years. We continue to -- it's an important thing that we lean into from a marketing point of view.

我們的觀點是，如果我們要在國家銀行業務中獲勝，我們實際上必須將整個客戶體驗以及您在分行中可以獲得的幾乎所有內容數位化，以便客戶能夠在數位化的基礎上獲得這些體驗。因此，我們多年來所做的就是建立一家提供全方位服務的數位化國家銀行。當我們建立這個銀行時，我們利用了我們擁有的龐大客戶群、我們擁有的國家品牌，並真正將其添加到我們的營銷和戰略的各個方面，這家國家銀行的建設，以及我們獲得了很大的吸引力——良好的成長和品牌方面的很大吸引力，因為消費者意識到第一資本，儘管全國各地的（聽不清楚）分行確實是一家提供全方位服務的國家銀行。這就是我們多年來的策略。我們繼續——從行銷的角度來看，這是我們所關注的一件重要的事情。

But basically, our quest is to build -- continue to build a national bank without getting there by virtue of just lots and lots of acquisitions of branch-based banks.

但基本上，我們的目標是建立——繼續建立一家國家銀行，而不是僅僅依靠大量收購分行銀行來實現這一目標。

Our next question comes from Don Fandetti with Wells Fargo.

我們的下一個問題來自富國銀行的 Don Fandetti。

Rich, I was wondering, given your good trends in auto delinquency, are you sort of inclined to be leaning a little harder into auto lending? Or do you need to see something before making that decision?

Rich，我想知道，考慮到您在汽車拖欠方面的良好趨勢，您是否傾向於更傾向於汽車貸款？或者在做出決定之前您需要看一些東西嗎？

Don, thank you for your question. It's funny. We have zigged, while others have zagged for so long -- as long as I can remember in the auto business. And our strategy isn't just to zig while others zag, it's always to look at this marketplace. And really objectively see where the opportunities are. This is a more volatile business in terms of our growth strategies than the credit card business is because of the role that a dealer plays in the business in a sense, holding auctions at the dealership such that we -- our growth strategies are particularly sensitive to the credit and underwriting choices that our competitors make because it's sort of amplified in this auction-based environment with dealers really quite a contrast from the credit card business -- to the credit card business where certainly the competitive choices matter.

唐，謝謝你的提問。這很有趣。我們一直在走彎路，而其他人則已經走了很長一段時間——從我在汽車行業的記憶開始。我們的策略不僅僅是在別人搖擺不定的時候搖擺不定，而是始終關注這個市場。並真正客觀地看到機會在哪裡。就我們的成長策略而言，這是一項比信用卡業務更不穩定的業務，因為經銷商在某種意義上在該業務中扮演著角色，在經銷商處舉行拍賣，因此我們的成長策略對以下因素特別敏感：我們的競爭對手所做的信貸和承保選擇，因為在這種以拍賣為基礎的環境中，經銷商的選擇被放大了，這與信用卡業務形成了鮮明的對比——而信用卡業務的競爭選擇當然很重要。

But it's really still a one-on-one business with our customers and prospective customers. That's why you see so much more stability in sort of the marketing and the marketing sort of -- and the -- and leaning into the growth that you see on the card side. So as when you think about the last few years. So we've certainly had in the last 5 or 6 years, tremendous growth and traction in the auto business. And we -- our strategy was so powered by our technology that we've invested in the business, the data, the underwriting capabilities and the very deep relationships that we've been building with dealers. Over the last couple of years, we were concerned at what was happening with margins as they were pressured by interest rate increases in 2022 and early 2023. Some competitors were slow to adjust their pricing. Now more recently, industry lending margins have largely normalized as interest rates have stabilized and many players, including late movers have continued to increase pricing.

但這實際上仍然是與我們的客戶和潛在客戶進行一對一的業務。這就是為什麼你在行銷和行銷方面看到瞭如此多的穩定性，並且傾向於你在卡片方面看到的成長。當你回想過去幾年也是如此。因此，在過去的五、六年裡，我們的汽車業務確實取得了巨大的成長和吸引力。我們的策略是由我們的技術推動的，我們投資於業務、數據、承保能力以及我們與經銷商建立的非常深厚的關係。在過去的幾年裡，我們擔心利潤率的變化，因為他們受到 2022 年和 2023 年初利率上漲的壓力。一些競爭對手調整定價的速度很慢。最近，隨著利率趨於穩定，以及包括後來者在內的許多參與者繼續提高定價，行業貸款利潤率已基本正常化。

The other thing, of course, was watching very closely the credit side of the business. And we -- just as we did in the card business, probably actually more proactively and more significantly in auto we trimmed back around the edges in anticipation of certain worsening and with concerns about score drift in -- with respect to the data for -- from consumers. So that has -- and you've seen the data that -- where Capital One has pulled back quite a bit. Our outstandings have been shrinking a little bit. You also have seen the striking credit performance we've had and the stability now that is at least 2 quarters long in terms of what we're seeing on various credit metrics.

當然，另一件事是密切關注業務的信貸方面。我們——就像我們在卡片業務中所做的那樣，實際上在汽車領域可能更主動、更顯著，我們在預期某些惡化和擔心分數漂移的情況下削減了邊緣——就數據而言——來自消費者。所以，你已經看到了數據，第一資本已經大幅撤退。我們的未償資金減少。您還看到了我們驚人的信用表現，以及我們在各種信用指標上看到的至少兩個季度的穩定性。

So seeing the good metrics and seeing the marketplace, we're certainly on the lookout for opportunities, but I'm not here to predict an acceleration, but we certainly do like the performance of both our front book and our back book at this point.

因此，看到良好的指標並看到市場，我們當然正在尋找機會，但我不是來預測加速的，但我們確實喜歡我們的前書和後書目前的表現。

Our next question comes from Sanjay Sakhrani with KBW.

我們的下一個問題來自 KBW 的 Sanjay Sakhrani。

First question just on the adjusted operating efficiency rate. You've seen some nice improvements over the last 2 quarters. And I know, Rich, you talked about sort of the year outlook. I'm just wondering if we could see this type of level or trends sustain itself into next year?

第一個問題是關於調整後的營運效率。在過去的兩個季度中，您已經看到了一些不錯的改進。我知道，里奇，你談到了今年的展望。我只是想知道我們是否可以看到這種水平或趨勢維持到明年？

Sanjay, we're not going to be giving out guidance on -- at this point on where operating efficiency goes. We certainly are pleased with the progress that we've made over time in operating efficiency ratio even as we've continued to really invest in the business and we're starting to see -- we have these 2 competing things going on inside Capital One, both a real investment in technology and also at the same time, generating a bunch of benefits and efficiencies from that technology.

Sanjay，目前我們不會就營運效率的走向提供指導。我們當然對隨著時間的推移在營運效率方面取得的進展感到高興，儘管我們繼續對業務進行真正的投資，並且我們開始看到——第一資本內部正在發生這兩個相互競爭的事情，既是對技術的真正投資，同時又從該技術中產生了一系列的好處和效率。

So the net result of these 2 things has been -- we've been able to really make tremendous strides forward in technology and also get some efficiencies along the way. I wouldn't put too much reliance on any 1 quarter. You know these numbers kind of bounce around. But certainly, you probably noticed that in our guidance, we had guidance of flat to modestly down with respect to our efficiency ratio for full year 2023, and we took the flat part out, and we're now just at modestly down. So we continue to believe, over the long term, that our technology transformation offers a lot of promise for operating efficiencies and delivering operating efficiency is an important part of, I think, the value creation equation for investors.

因此，這兩件事的最終結果是——我們在技術方面真正取得了巨大的進步，並且在過程中也獲得了一些效率。我不會過度依賴任何一個季度。你知道這些數字會不斷波動。但當然，您可能注意到，在我們的指導中，我們對 2023 年全年的效率比率進行了持平或小幅下降的指導，我們去掉了持平部分，現在只是小幅下降。因此，我們仍然相信，從長遠來看，我們的技術轉型為營運效率提供了許多希望，我認為，實現營運效率是投資者價值創造方程式的重要組成部分。

I do want to say, though, at the same time, we continue to really see great opportunities in the business. We continue to still invest in technology to capitalize on even greater opportunities over time. And that's the story of our operating efficiency ratio.

但我確實想說，同時，我們仍然真正看到了這個行業的巨大機會。隨著時間的推移，我們仍然繼續投資於技術，以利用更多的機會。這就是我們的營運效率比率。

Perfect. Then I have a follow-up question just on the leaning into growth in card. Where exactly is that happening? I mean, obviously, you talked about adjusting the risk parameters, and that's obviously flowing through in the credit numbers improving. Is it more on the transactor side that you're leading into growth? Or is it balanced across all segments? I'm just curious sort of the implications on a go-forward basis?

完美的。然後我有一個關於卡牌增長傾向的後續問題。這究竟發生在哪裡？我的意思是，顯然，您談到了調整風險參數，這顯然會影響信用資料的改善。您是否更多地在交易者方面推動成長？或者它在所有細分市場之間是否平衡？我只是好奇這對未來的影響是什麼？

Yes. Thank you. So we are finding traction across the spectrum really. So -- and we're leaning in across the spectrum. One thing I do want to say about growth, the outstandings growth if we really think about just the strength of loan growth, for a while, the striking loan growth for Capital One and the industry was we all said, well, this is just reversing the pullbacks from the pandemic. But I think for us and for a lot of players in the industry, these loan numbers have blown past prior levels. And let's just reflect a little bit on what has sustained this. My view is well, there's the Capital One effect. We continue to have significant new account growth, and that obviously powers a lot of overtime loan growth.

是的。謝謝。所以我們確實在各個領域都找到了吸引力。所以——我們正在向各個領域傾斜。關於成長，我確實想說一件事，如果我們真正考慮貸款成長的強度，那麼未償貸款的成長，有一段時間，第一資本和整個行業的貸款成長驚人，我們都說，好吧，這只是逆轉大流行帶來的回調。但我認為對於我們以及業內的許多參與者來說，這些貸款數量已經超過了之前的水平。讓我們稍微思考一下是什麼支撐了這種情況。我的觀點是，這就是第一資本效應。我們的新帳戶持續大幅成長，這顯然推動了大量加班貸款的成長。

Payment rates are coming down. Interestingly, they have come down quite a bit. But as a general statement, they're not down to where they were before. Part of that mix effect at Capital One because we've had a lot of traction on the spending side. But even within segments, if I were to generalize, payment rates, the payment rates are still higher than they were pre-pandemic.

付款率正在下降。有趣的是，它們已經下降了很多。但總的來說，他們並沒有回到以前的水平。這是第一資本的混合效應的一部分，因為我們在支出方面有很大的吸引力。但即使在細分市場內，如果我概括一下支付率，支付率仍然高於疫情前。

So again, inside that, there's partly a Capital One effect, but I think also sort of a strength of the consumer effect. However, the payment rates have come down and that -- somewhat and that has powered growth. And I think likely no one's going to be able to prove this, but I think there are inflation effects underneath the surface. When things cost more as long as consumer incomes stay -- stay up to where inflation is, you generally have some natural, I think, inflation effects that drive some of this growth as well. So we see a lot of strength there. And some of those are Capital One specific comments I'm making and several of those are really kind of industry points.

因此，這裡面有一部分是第一資本效應，但我認為也有一種消費者效應的力量。然而，支付率有所下降，這在一定程度上推動了成長。我認為可能沒有人能夠證明這一點，但我認為表面之下存在通貨膨脹效應。當消費者收入維持在通膨水準不變的情況下，物價就會上漲時，我認為，通常會產生一些自然的通膨效應，從而推動部分成長。所以我們在那裡看到了很多力量。其中一些是我正在發表的第一資本的具體評論，其中一些確實是行業觀點。

Our next question comes from John Pancari with Evercore ISI.

我們的下一個問題來自 Evercore ISI 的 John Pancari。

On the -- back to the -- your commentary around the slowing pace of the increase in delinquencies that you're seeing in card and some of the stabilization that you're citing, I know you indicated that charge-offs should of course, lag that. Can you give us maybe some way to think about how long that lag could be? Is it a 2- to 3-quarter type of window that we're looking for losses to follow through on that front?

關於——回到——你對卡中拖欠率增長放緩的評論以及你所引用的一些穩定情況，我知道你表示沖銷當然應該，滯後那個。您能給我們一些方法來思考這個延遲可能有多長嗎？我們正在尋找一個 2 到 3 個季度的視窗類型來追蹤這方面的損失嗎？

Well, I don't want to make a precise prediction on that. I want to first of all, pull up and say, when we -- it's -- the thing that we tell everybody to look at is -- what we say is what we look at is delinquencies because that is the first indicator. That's why we have been talking not just quarterly but really even looking at the last couple of months and seeing the sort of more stabilization on the credit card side, which is very encouraging. Delinquencies, basically customers go delinquent and ultimately charge off 6 months later.

好吧，我不想對此做出精確的預測。首先，我想說，當我們──我們告訴大家要關注的是──我們所說的是我們關注的是拖欠率，因為這是第一個指標。這就是為什麼我們不僅在每個季度進行討論，而且甚至在過去幾個月中都進行了討論，並看到信用卡方面更加穩定，這是非常令人鼓舞的。拖欠，基本上是客戶拖欠並最終在 6 個月後註銷。

And so there is -- but sometimes they go faster, sometimes they go slower. And of course, lots of times they make their payments. But we're talking about these things being measured in over a couple of quarters. The relationship between the delinquencies and the charge-offs.

確實如此——但有時它們走得更快，有時它們會走得更慢。當然，他們很多時候都會付款。但我們正在談論這些事情是在幾個季度內進行衡量的。拖欠和沖銷之間的關係。

Our next question comes from Erika Najarian with UBS.

我們的下一個問題來自瑞銀集團的艾莉卡·納賈里安。

Yes. I hate to reask this question, but I think a lot of investors want to make a fine point on this in the fourth quarter. Going back to Ryan and John's question about net charge-offs I think that perhaps what's holding back credit-sensitive financials is obviously the prospect of recession. But Rich, everything that you've said has seen positive pace of delinquency, rate normalization slowing, stability of credit performance in recent vintages. As we think about what happened in September in terms of the card charge-off rate and look at the quarterly charge-off rate in third quarter and second quarter, is it fair to draw the conclusion that as we look forward to the fourth quarter net charge-off rate that given the stability of all the leading indicators that the charge-off rate will be mostly driven by seasonality rather than normalization if normalization has stabilized for now?

是的。我不想再問這個問題，但我認為很多投資者都希望在第四季對此做出明確的闡述。回到瑞安和約翰關於淨沖銷的問題，我認為也許阻礙信貸敏感型金融業發展的顯然是經濟衰退的前景。但是，里奇，你所說的一切都表明，最近幾個年份的拖欠率、利率正常化放緩、信貸表現穩定都出現了積極的進展。當我們思考 9 月份的信用卡沖銷率情況並查看第三季度和第二季度的季度沖銷率時，是否可以得出這樣的結論：我們期待第四季度的淨額考慮到所有領先指標的穩定性，如果正常化暫時穩定下來，核銷率將主要由季節性而不是正常化所驅動？

Yes. So Erika, thanks for your question. Let me say a few things. So let's -- first of all, one of the things that makes this already challenging business for everyone studying it, including those of us who live it every day. is the seasonality in -- the volatility, which a big element of that is seasonality. So let's just -- let's talk just a little bit about seasonality. Card and auto delinquencies tend to improve each year around the tax refund season and then they worsen gradually over the rest of the year.

是的。艾莉卡，謝謝你的問題。讓我說幾句話。首先，讓我們來談談，對於每個研究它的人來說，這個本來就充滿挑戰的行業，包括我們每天都生活在其中的人。是波動性中的季節性，其中一個重要因素就是季節性。所以讓我們來談談季節性。每年退稅季節前後，信用卡和汽車拖欠率往往都會有所改善，然後在一年中的剩餘時間逐漸惡化。

The second quarter is typically the seasonal low point for card delinquencies and Q4 is the seasonal high point. Card losses lag relative to delinquencies. So they tend to be seasonally lowest in the third quarter and highest in the first quarter. And now in the third quarter, so our domestic card delinquencies increased. So it's kind of interesting that we're talking about sort of a leveling -- a stabilizing kind of direction when we're actually looking at delinquencies for the quarter that went up 57 basis points on a sequential quarter basis. And that's versus a typical seasonal expectation of kind of -- sort of somewhere in the neighborhood of like 37 basis points. But -- so you can even see for the quarter that most of the increase that we observed was seasonal. But then that's where we've said, if you zoom in the month -- the months of August and September, the month-over-month movement is getting really close to just the normal seasonal trend.

第二季通常是銀行卡違約率的季節性低點，第四季是季節性高點。卡損失相對於拖欠而言滯後。因此，它們往往在第三季達到季節性最低值，在第一季達到最高值。而現在到了第三季度，所以我們國內的卡片拖欠情況有所增加。因此，有趣的是，當我們實際觀察本季的拖欠率時，我們正在談論一種平衡——一種穩定的方向，該季度的拖欠率環比上升了 57 個基點。這與典型的季節性預期相比——大約在 37 個基點附近。但是，您甚至可以看到我們觀察到的本季大部分成長都是季節性的。但這就是我們所說的，如果你放大這個月——八月和九月，你會發現月度變化非常接近正常的季節性趨勢。

And so this is one of the early indications that the trend of normalization we've been seeing may be stabilizing. Now one thing I want to say, obviously, you hear bullish in my commentary, I'm not here to just wave my arms and declare a turn. We have a couple of months of very encouraging data. We'd love to see more data where we have seen -- in a couple of quarters where we've seen a longer stretch of data is in the -- more on the lower end of the card business, interestingly, as I talked about, and in the auto business.

因此，這是我們所看到的正常化趨勢可能穩定的早期跡象之一。現在我想說的一件事，顯然，你在我的評論中聽到了看漲的聲音，我來這裡不是為了揮舞手臂並宣布轉變。我們有幾個月非常令人鼓舞的數據。我們希望看到更多我們已經看到的數據——在幾個季度中，我們看到了更長的數據範圍——更多關於卡業務的低端數據，有趣的是，正如我所說，以及汽車業。

So that's where things have really kind of appear to have stabilized. Our upmarket card business is getting there a little bit not quite as -- not quite there yet. So I start by saying we'd love to see a little more data to be fully confident of what we're seeing. The second thing I want to say with -- then now to your question about charge-offs, first of all, what we see, especially in the months of August and September, you're not going to see that show up with stabilized charge-offs as soon as the fourth quarter because it really is a couple of quarters that -- to the earlier question that was asked, it's really a couple of quarters before the charge-offs performed sort of in line with the -- with the delinquencies.

所以這就是事情似乎已經穩定下來的地方。我們的高端信用卡業務正在實現這一目標，但還沒有完全實現。因此，我首先要說的是，我們希望看到更多的數據，以便對我們所看到的情況充滿信心。我想說的第二件事 - 那麼現在關於你關於沖銷的問題，首先，我們所看到的，特別是在八月和九月，你不會看到穩定的收費出現- 最早在第四季度就進行沖銷，因為實際上是幾個季度- 對於之前提出的問題，實際上是幾個季度後沖銷的表現與- 拖欠率一致。

So we're not going to make predictions here, and I don't -- I just -- I always -- we're always very kind of try to be as clear as we can on what we see. We happen to see some pretty positive things here, but they can also be a head fake and not be as good as they appear.

所以我們不會在這裡做出預測，我不會——我只是——我總是——我們總是盡力盡可能清楚地了解我們所看到的情況。我們碰巧在這裡看到了一些非常積極的事情，但它們也可能是假的，並不像看起來那麼好。

Our next question comes from Dominick Gabriele with Oppenheimer.

我們的下一個問題來自多明尼克·加布里埃爾和奧本海默。

When you think about capital ratios and Basel end game and the need to build capital specifically for unused lines, how do you think about mitigating if at all, mitigating your unused lines and given your capital target of about 11% today, maybe you could just talk to us about the factor of Basel unused lines and the effect going over on your capital levels and the ROTCE target? And then I just have a follow-up, if you don't mind.

當您考慮資本比率和巴塞爾最終遊戲以及專門為未使用的線路建立資本的需要時，您如何考慮減輕（如果有的話），減輕您的未使用線路並考慮到您今天約11％ 的資本目標，也許您可以只是與我們談談巴塞爾未使用額度的因素以及對您的資本水平和 ROTCE 目標的影響？如果你不介意的話，我還有一個後續行動。

Yes, I'm going to come back, Dominick, because the last half of your question. I wasn't sure I followed it. But in terms of unused lines, one of our long-standing strategies has been to start people with smaller lines and allow them to grow. And so I would say, I wouldn't expect a meaningful shift in that strategy solely in the service of risk-weighted assets. So overall, though, as you look at the risk weightings that have come out in the end game proposal. For us, in aggregate, recall, we're not in mortgage or trading.

是的，我會回來的，多明尼克，因為你問題的後半部分。我不確定我是否遵循了它。但就未使用的生產線而言，我們的長期策略之一是用較小的生產線開始人員並允許他們成長。所以我想說，我不認為該策略會僅僅為風險加權資產服務而發生有意義的轉變。總的來說，當你看到最終遊戲提案中出現的風險權重。回想一下，對我們來說，總的來說，我們不從事抵押貸款或交易。

So looking at the net of retail and commercial, inclusive of the gold plating, those are largely fighting to a draw in terms of overall risk-weighting impact, specifically on the asset side. Like everyone else, of course, we're going to have an impact from the operational risk RWA. But I didn't quite follow the second half of your question around ROTCEs. Could you just repeat that for me?

因此，從零售和商業網路（包括鍍金）來看，這些網路在整體風險權重影響方面基本上處於平局，特別是在資產方面。當然，像其他人一樣，我們也會受到操作風險 RWA 的影響。但我不太明白你關於 ROTCE 問題的後半部分。你能為我重複一遍嗎？

Sure. Sorry about that. I was just curious if you basically had to hold more capital because it's my understanding that you would have to hold additional capital against unused lines versus just drawn lines now. And so I was just curious if your capital ratio would have to rise and if that would affect the long-term return on like return on in any way?

當然。對於那個很抱歉。我只是好奇你是否基本上必須持有更多資本，因為據我所知，你必須針對未使用的線條而不是現在只繪製的線條持有額外的資本。所以我只是好奇你的資本比率是否必須提高，這是否會以任何方式影響長期回報率？

Got it. Yes, sorry, I didn't quite follow the second half of it. That was what I was trying to explain in my answer is the net of all of that ultimately ends up being a wash, the part where we will be holding more capital on the denominator side, strictly for the risk-weighting assets again, I should highlight that it's in a comment period, a lot of industry focus on it and well, particularly as it relates to the opt risk calculation, there could be material impacts the final outcome relative to what's proposed.

知道了。是的，抱歉，我沒聽懂後半段。這就是我在回答中試圖解釋的，所有這些的淨值最終會被洗掉，我們將在分母方面持有更多資本，嚴格來說是風險加權資產，我應該強調它處於評論期，很多行業都在關注它，特別是因為它與選擇風險計算有關，相對於提議的結果可能會對最終結果產生重大影響。

But taking what is currently proposed, the asset side specifically outside of the operational risk ends up being roughly a draw for us, and it's really just the operational risk that's going to require us to hold more capital.

但就目前的提議而言，特別是在操作風險之外的資產方面最終對我們來說大致是有吸引力的，而且實際上只是操作風險需要我們持有更多資本。

Dominick, you have a follow-up? Next question, please.

多明尼克，你有後續行動嗎？請下一個問題。

Our next question comes from Bill Carcache with Wolfe Research.

我們的下一個問題來自沃爾夫研究中心的比爾·卡卡什。

So I wanted to ask about the leaf fee proposal. The consensus view is that we'll get it very soon. It will be immediately litigated. Can you give us your view on the likely path that you would anticipate and possibly speak to any potential costs that might be associated with it?

所以我想問一下關於葉子費的建議。一致認為我們很快就會得到它。它將立即提起訴訟。您能否告訴我們您對您預期的可能路徑的看法，並可能談論與之相關的任何潛在成本？

Okay. Thank you, Bill. So the CFPB's late fee proposal as currently contemplated would reduce late fees by approximately 75%. And while the CFPB's proposal has not yet been finalized, we expect the CFPB to publish a proposal soon, probably before the end of the year. Now once the CFPB publishes its final rule, we expect there to be industry litigation that could delay or block the implementation of this rule. And this litigation will likely delay the implementation of the rule until at least the second half of 2024 and maybe longer. If the proposed rule is implemented, there will be a significant impact to our P&L in the near term.

好的。謝謝你，比爾。因此，CFPB 目前設想的滯納金提案將減少約 75% 的滯納金。雖然 CFPB 的提案尚未最終確定，但我們預計 CFPB 將很快發布提案，可能會在今年年底之前。現在，一旦 CFPB 發布其最終規則，我們預計將會出現行業訴訟，這可能會延遲或阻止該規則的實施。而這場訴訟很可能會將該規則的實施推遲到至少 2024 年下半年，甚至可能更久。如果擬議的規則得到實施，短期內將對我們的損益產生重大影響。

However, we have a set of mitigating actions that we're working through that we believe will gradually resolve this impact a couple of years after the rule goes into effect. These choices include changes to our policies, products and investment choices. Some of these actions will take place before the rule change takes effect many will come after the rule change takes effect.

不過，我們正在採取一系列緩解措施，我們相信這些措施將在規則生效幾年後逐步解決這項影響。這些選擇包括我們政策、產品和投資選擇的變化。其中一些操作將在規則變更生效之前進行，許多操作將在規則變更生效之後進行。

Our final question is a follow-up from Dominick Gabriele with Oppenheimer.

我們的最後一個問題是多米尼克·加布里埃爾（Dominick Gabriele）和奧本海默（Oppenheimer）的後續行動。

Sorry about that. I think I got cut off. Can you hear me okay?

對於那個很抱歉。我想我被切斷了。你聽得到我說話嗎？

Yes, we can Dominick.

是的，我們可以，多明尼克。

Yes, we can Dominick.

是的，我們可以，多明尼克。

All right. Sorry about that, guys. I was actually just curious on the quarter-over-quarter increase in domestic card yield. I know that there's sometimes some seasonality in the third quarter, and we've also had a lot of rate hikes in previous years around the third quarter. I was wondering if you could just walk us through some of the dynamics in the quarter-over-quarter increase in domestic card?

好的。抱歉，夥計們。我實際上只是對國內卡收益率的季度環比增長感到好奇。我知道第三季有時會存在一些季節性，而且前幾年我們在第三季左右也有過多次升息。我想知道您能否向我們介紹國內信用卡季度環比增長的一些動態？

Yes, Dominick, I can't remember who asked it earlier, but just reiterating some of those points, I think you largely answered your own question, which is there is seasonality that in part is -- or is a function of the revolve rates driven by some of the dynamics Rich talked about over the course of the year, we did see the Fed move. And then we also saw a bit of late fees, which I would lump into the seasonality dimension. And then finally, we had one more day in the third quarter, so day count in an absolute sense, not necessarily relative to peers, which I think was the nature of the question earlier. But at least in an absolute sense. Those are the big drivers of what drove the quarter-over-quarter yield.

是的，多米尼克，我不記得之前是誰問過這個問題，但只是重申其中一些觀點，我認為您很大程度上回答了自己的問題，即存在季節性，部分是——或者是循環率的函數在里奇在這一年中談到的一些動態的推動下，我們確實看到了聯準會的舉動。然後我們還看到了一些滯納金，我將其歸類為季節性維度。最後，我們在第三季又多了一天，所以天數是絕對意義上的，不一定是相對於同業的，我認為這是先前問題的本質。但至少在絕對意義上是如此。這些是推動季度收益率的主要驅動因素。

Well, thanks, everybody, for joining us on the conference call this evening, and thank you for your continuing interest in Capital One. Investor Relations team will be here later this evening to answer any questions that you may have. Have a great evening, everyone.

好的，謝謝大家參加今晚的電話會議，也謝謝大家對第一資本的持續關注。投資者關係團隊將於今晚晚些時候在這裡回答您可能提出的任何問題。祝大家有個愉快的夜晚。

This concludes today's conference call. Thank you for participating. You may now disconnect.

今天的電話會議到此結束。感謝您的參與。您現在可以斷開連線。