使用警語:中文譯文來源為 Google 翻譯,僅供參考,實際內容請以英文原文為主
Operator
Operator
Hello, and welcome to the Vita Coco Company's third-quarter 2025 earnings conference call. My name is Daniel. I'll be coordinating your call today. Following prepared remarks, we will open the call to your questions with instructions to be given at that time.
大家好,歡迎參加 Vita Coco 公司 2025 年第三季財報電話會議。我叫丹尼爾。我今天會安排你們的通話。在發表完準備好的演講後,我們將開放提問環節,屆時會給予相關說明。
I'll now hand the call over to John Mills with ICR.
現在我將把電話交給 ICR 的約翰米爾斯。
John Mills - Investor Relations
John Mills - Investor Relations
Thank you and welcome to the Vita Coco Company's third-quarter 2025 earnings results conference call. Today's call is being recorded. With us are Mr. Mike Kirban, Executive Chairman; Martin Roper, Chief Executive Officer; and Corey Baker, Chief Financial Officer.
謝謝大家,歡迎參加維他可可公司2025年第三季財報電話會議。今天的通話將會被錄音。與我們同行的有:執行董事長麥克‧柯班先生;執行長馬丁‧羅珀先生;以及財務長科里‧貝克先生。
By now, everyone should have access to the company's third-quarter earnings release issued earlier today. This information is available in the Investor Relations section of the Vita Coco Company's website at investors.thevitacococompany.com. Also on the website, there is an accompanying presentation of our commercial and financial performance results. Certain comments made on this call include forward-looking statements which are subject to the Safe Harbor's provisions of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995.
現在,所有人都應該能夠看到該公司今天稍早發布的第三季財報。這些資訊可在Vita Coco公司網站的投資者關係欄位(investors.thevitacococompany.com)查閱。網站上也附有我們商業和財務表現的簡報。本次電話會議中發表的某些評論包含前瞻性陳述,這些陳述受 1995 年《私人證券訴訟改革法案》安全港條款的約束。
These forward-looking statements are based on management's current expectations and beliefs concerning future events and are subject to several risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results to differ materially from those described in these forward-looking statements. Please refer to today's press release and other filings with the SEC for more detailed discussion of the risk factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from those expressed or implied in any forward-looking statements made today.
這些前瞻性陳述是基於管理階層對未來事件的當前預期和信念,並受到多種風險和不確定性的影響,這些風險和不確定性可能導致實際結果與這些前瞻性陳述中描述的結果有重大差異。有關可能導致實際結果與今天所作任何前瞻性聲明中明示或暗示的結果存在重大差異的風險因素的更詳細討論,請參閱今天的新聞稿和向美國證券交易委員會提交的其他文件。
Also during the call, we will use some non-GAAP financial measures as we describe our business performance. Our SEC filings, as well as the earnings press release and supplementary earnings presentation, provide reconciliations of the non-GAAP financial measures to the most directly comparable GAAP measures and are available on our website as well.
此外,在電話會議期間,我們將使用一些非GAAP財務指標來描述我們的業務表現。我們的 SEC 文件、獲利新聞稿和補充獲利報告提供了非 GAAP 財務指標與最直接可比較的 GAAP 指標的調整表,這些文件也可以在我們的網站上查閱。
And with that, it is my pleasure to I'll turn the call over to Mike Kirban, our Co-Founder and Executive Chairman.
接下來,我很高興將電話交給我們的共同創辦人兼執行主席麥克柯班。
Michael Kirban - Executive Chairman of the Board, Co-Founder
Michael Kirban - Executive Chairman of the Board, Co-Founder
Thanks, John. Good morning, everyone. Thank you for joining us today to discuss our third quarter financial results and our expectations for the balance of 2025.
謝謝你,約翰。各位早安。感謝各位今天蒞臨,與我們共同探討我們第三季的財務表現以及我們對 2025 年剩餘時間的預期。
I want to start by thanking all of our colleagues across the globe for our continued strong performance, particularly in a very fluid environment and for their commitment to the (inaudible) company and advancing our mission of creating ethical, sustainable, better-for-you beverages that uplift our communities and do right by our planet.
首先,我要感謝全球所有同事,感謝他們持續取得優異成績,尤其是在瞬息萬變的環境中,感謝他們對公司(聽不清楚)的承諾,以及他們為推進我們的使命所做的努力,即創造符合道德規範、可持續、更健康的飲料,從而提升我們的社區,並善待我們的地球。
Although I'm incredibly pleased with our third-quarter performance, I'm even more excited by the underlying momentum in our category and our very high execution levels, which bodes well for our future. Coconut water remains one of the fastest growing categories in the beverage aisle, growing 22% year to date in the US, and 32% in the UK based on Circana data, and over 100% in Germany based on Nielsen data.
雖然我對我們第三季的業績非常滿意,但我更興奮的是我們所在行業的潛在發展勢頭以及我們非常高的執行水平,這預示著我們未來發展良好。椰子水仍然是飲料貨架上成長最快的品類之一,根據 Circana 的數據,今年迄今在美國成長了 22%,在英國成長了 32%,根據尼爾森的數據,在德國成長了超過 100%。
This, coupled with our significantly improved inventory position versus last year, has resulted in very strong retail growth for our brand. Year to date, according to our retail data, Vita Coco coconut water, excluding our coconut milk-based products like Treats, is growing 21% in retail dollars in the US, 32% in the UK, and over 200% in Germany.
這一點,再加上我們庫存狀況較去年有了顯著改善,使得我們品牌的零售額實現了非常強勁的成長。根據我們的零售數據,今年迄今為止,Vita Coco 椰子水(不包括我們的椰奶產品,如 Treats)在美國的零售額增長了 21%,在英國增長了 32%,在德國增長了 200% 以上。
This has led to similarly strong global net sales, gross profit, net income, and adjusted EBITDA performance for our third quarter. Year to date, our International business is accelerating, driven by strong performance in Europe. Our increased investment this year in the UK, Germany, and other select European markets is paying off with healthy growth and brand share wins.
這使得我們第三季的全球淨銷售額、毛利、淨收入和調整後 EBITDA 業績同樣強勁。今年以來,受歐洲市場強勁表現的推動,我們的國際業務正在加速成長。今年我們加大了對英國、德國和其他部分歐洲市場的投資,並取得了健康成長和品牌份額提升的回報。
The acceleration of the category that we saw in late 2024 has continued through 2025, which combined with improved inventory and strong execution is producing exceptional year-to-date results. Looking forward, we expect to maintain strong growth trends as we invest in and develop the coconut water category in our priority markets. And our asset light model and strong cash generation position us well to take advantage of the opportunities ahead.
該品類在 2024 年底開始加速成長,這一趨勢一直延續到 2025 年,再加上庫存改善和強有力的執行,使得今年迄今的業績非常出色。展望未來,我們期待在重點市場投資和發展椰子水品類,從而保持強勁的成長動能。我們輕資產的營運模式和強勁的現金流使我們能夠更好地掌握未來的機會。
Big picture, I believe that the coconut water category is in the very early stages of gaining mainstream appeal on a global level. Coconut water looks to be transitioning from niche to mainstream, and we are at the forefront of that trend. If we can continue the household penetration and consumption gains that we are seeing, I'm confident that coconut water will one day be as large as some of the major beverage categories across the beverage aisle.
從宏觀角度來看,我認為椰子水類別尚處於全球獲得主流認可的早期階段。椰子水似乎正在從小眾產品轉變為主流產品轉變,而我們正處於這一趨勢的前沿。如果我們能夠繼續維持目前家庭滲透率和消費量的成長,我相信椰子水終有一天會像飲料貨架上的其他主要飲料類別一樣規模龐大。
And now, I'll turn the call over to our Chief Executive Officer, Martin Roper.
現在,我將把電話交給我們的執行長馬丁·羅珀。
Martin Roper - Chief Executive Officer, Director
Martin Roper - Chief Executive Officer, Director
Thanks, Mike, and good morning, everyone. I'm pleased to report to Coco's continued strong performance in the third quarter. Net sales in the quarter were up 37%, driven by growth of Vita Coco coconut water of 42%, benefiting from strong growth in the coconut water category and improvement in our available inventory and service levels.
謝謝你,麥克,大家早安。我很高興地向大家匯報,Coco在第三季持續保持強勁的業績。本季淨銷售額成長 37%,主要得益於 Vita Coco 椰子水 42% 的成長,這得益於椰子水類別的強勁成長以及我們可用庫存和服務水準的提高。
Our branded scan results in the United States were very strong, even with the slight (inaudible) created by the changes in the (inaudible) late last year, which we estimated was a mid-single-digit drag to our total US branded scams in the third quarter. We are benefiting from strong volume growth and the impact of the two price increases taken in the US this year. The first in mid-May to cover our normal inflationary cost of goods increase, and the second in mid-July to cover the dollar impact of the 10% baseline tariffs announced in April.
即使去年底(聽不清楚)的變化造成了輕微的(聽不清楚)影響,我們在美國品牌掃描的結果仍然非常強勁。我們估計,這導致第三季美國品牌詐騙總數出現了個位數的中等程度的下滑。我們受益於強勁的銷售成長以及今年美國兩次漲價的影響。第一次是在 5 月中旬,以彌補正常的商品成本通膨增長;第二次是在 7 月中旬,以彌補 4 月宣布的 10% 基準關稅對美元的影響。
The cumulative effect of these price increases on shelves in the US is best viewed on a two-year basis, which is showing as approximately 7% in the last quarter, according to Circana. To date, we think the price electricity impacts from these increases are within expectations, but we need more time to understand the impact of the July increase and to see competitor moves before thinking about any further price increases to cover the additional tariffs announced in August.
根據 Circana 的數據,這些價格上漲對美國貨架商品的累積影響最好以兩年為單位來觀察,上一季的價格上漲幅度約為 7%。到目前為止,我們認為這些漲價對電價的影響在預期之內,但我們需要更多時間來了解 7 月份漲價的影響,並觀察競爭對手的動向,然後再考慮是否進一步漲價以彌補 8 月份宣布的額外關稅。
Since November last year, we have been in the juice [set] at Walmart with significantly reduced assortment. We can expect this juice set to be reset in mid-November. We've been told that our current total points of distribution will grow significantly compared to the current sets and also above levels we had before the move to the juice aisle.
自去年 11 月以來,我們在沃爾瑪的果汁區銷售的產品種類大幅減少。預計該果汁配方將於 11 月中旬重置。我們被告知,與目前的銷售點相比,我們目前的銷售點總數將大幅增長,並且也將超過我們搬到果汁貨架之前的水平。
We are optimistic. We don't have complete visibility to understand the competitive dynamics of the new set and the actual shelf space allocated for our SKUs beyond the expected distribution gains. The private business remains strategically important to us, with greater uncertainty on costs, particularly due to the announced tariffs and some intermittent service issues from some of our competitors. As the category accelerates, there have been more inquiries than normal about our private label services.
我們持樂觀態度。除了預期的分銷收益之外,我們無法完全了解新系列產品的競爭動態以及分配給我們 SKU 的實際貨架空間。私人企業對我們來說仍然具有重要的戰略意義,但成本方面存在更大的不確定性,特別是由於已公佈的關稅以及一些競爭對手間歇性的服務問題。隨著該品類的加速發展,關於我們自有品牌服務的諮詢量也比以往更多。
In addition to the new US private label relationship announced last quarter, we now expect to regain in early 2026 some private label service regions with key retailers that we had previously lost. We view this as a positive signal on our quality, service, and pricing, and reinforces our belief in the competitive advantage of our supply chain. Other than increasing tariffs and slightly softer ocean freight, our cost of goods has been pretty stable since we last spoke to you.
除了上季宣布的與美國新自有品牌建立合作關係外,我們現在預計在 2026 年初重新獲得一些我們之前失去的與主要零售商的自有品牌服務區域。我們認為這是對我們產品品質、服務和定價的正面訊號,也增強了我們對供應鏈競爭優勢的信心。除了關稅上漲和海運價格略有下降之外,自上次與您聯繫以來,我們的商品成本一直相當穩定。
We believe ocean freight rates during the quarter were still elevated relative to historical levels, but we saw rates soften through the quarter and since quarter end. We are operating primarily on spot rates with some fixed price arrangements on certain lanes to secure capacity, which allow any lower rates to benefit our P&L probably early next year, depending on the timing of inventory flows.
我們認為本季海運費率相對於歷史水準仍然較高,但我們看到費率在本季及季末以來有所回落。我們主要按照現貨價格運營,並在某些航線上安排了一些固定價格以確保運力,這樣一來,任何較低的價格都可能在明年年初使我們的損益受益,具體時間取決於庫存流動的時機。
Corey will cover our outlook for the balance of the year. For 2026, the most difficult element to predict is the applicable US tariffs we'll be operating under. During the quarter, there were signals that the administration is willing to offer exemptions for products related to natural resources, not available at scale domestically to meet US demand, which gives us more optimism that coconut water could potentially receive waivers.
Corey將負責介紹我們對今年剩餘時間的展望。對 2026 年而言,最難預測的因素是我們將要遵守的美國關稅。本季有跡象表明,政府願意對與自然資源相關的產品給予豁免,這些產品在國內無法大規模供應以滿足美國需求,這讓我們更加樂觀地認為椰子水有可能獲得豁免。
If we do not receive any waivers and tariffs are uphold, we will continue our mitigation efforts, and ultimately, if significant tariffs remain and other offsets like ocean freight are not sufficient, we will evaluate the potential to take more pricing next year to further mitigate the impact of tariffs. We have a global diversified supply chain which positions us well to deal with the dynamic US tariff situation. The majority of our supply comes from the Philippines and Brazil, with the remainder principally coming from Thailand, Vietnam, Malaysia, and Sri Lanka.
如果我們沒有任何豁免,關稅得以維持,我們將繼續努力減輕關稅的影響;最終,如果高關稅仍然存在,而海運等其他抵消措施不足以減輕關稅的影響,我們將評估明年是否有可能提高價格,以進一步減輕關稅的影響。我們擁有全球多元化的供應鏈,這使我們能夠更好地應對不斷變化的美國關稅狀況。我們的大部分供應來自菲律賓和巴西,其餘則主要來自泰國、越南、馬來西亞和斯里蘭卡。
Our current weighted average tariff rate on coconut water shipping to the US from source country at the end of the quarter is estimated at a blended rate of approximately 23%, which is before any significant moves to mitigate the 50% tariffs on coconut water from Brazil. We are currently seeing tariffs into the US applied to approximately 60% of our global cost of goods and believe that this is a good approximation for the cost of goods that US tariffs are applied to.
截至本季末,我們目前對從原產國運往美國的椰子水加權平均關稅稅率估計為約 23%,這還不包括任何旨在減輕巴西椰子水 50% 關稅的重大舉措。目前我們看到,美國對我們全球商品成本的約 60% 徵收了關稅,我們認為這很好地近似反映了美國對商品徵收關稅的成本。
We are developing and executing plans to avert some of our (inaudible) production to Canada and Europe and to cover US demand more completely from Asia, which could help further mitigate our average tariff rate. We have started preparations for this (inaudible), but may choose for service and responsiveness reasons, to source some production from the US from Brazil on an ongoing basis. As the applicable tariff rates change in the future, we will adapt our plans.
我們正在製定和執行計劃,將部分(聽不清楚)生產轉移到加拿大和歐洲,並更全面地從亞洲滿足美國的需求,這有助於進一步降低我們的平均關稅率。我們已經開始為此做準備(聽不清楚),但出於服務和反應速度的考慮,我們可能會選擇持續地從巴西採購一些美國的產品。未來,隨著適用關稅稅率的變化,我們將調整我們的計劃。
To summarize, our category is very healthy. Our brand is performing well, and our supply chain is supporting very strong growth, and together with potential future pricing, we believe that we will be able to mitigate the potential tariff impact long term and to remain very competitive in our markets. We are confident in our team's ability to execute and deliver our plans for the balance of 2025 and 2026, and our confidence in the category and Vita Coco brand trends remains very high.
總而言之,我們這個行業狀況非常好。我們的品牌表現良好,供應鏈也支持強勁的成長,再加上未來潛在的定價,我們相信能夠長期減輕關稅可能帶來的影響,並在市場上保持強大的競爭力。我們對團隊執行和交付 2025 年剩餘時間和 2026 年計畫的能力充滿信心,並且我們對該品類和 Vita Coco 品牌的發展趨勢仍然充滿信心。
Longer term, we believe that we will benefit when ocean freight rates return to historical levels, and then when all of our tariff mitigation efforts are in place, this should allow us to achieve or beat our long-term financial targets.
從長遠來看,我們相信,當海運費率恢復到歷史水準時,我們將從中受益;而當我們所有的關稅緩解措施都到位後,這將使我們能夠實現或超越我們的長期財務目標。
With that, I will turn the call over to Corey Baker, our Chief Financial Officer.
接下來,我將把電話轉交給我們的財務長科里·貝克。
Corey Baker - Chief Financial Officer
Corey Baker - Chief Financial Officer
Thanks, Martin, and good morning, everyone. I will now provide you with some additional details on the third-quarter 2025 financial results and our outlook for the full year. Net sales were very strong for the third quarter, increasing $49 million or 37% year over year to $182 million. Vita Coco coconut water grew 42%, and private label grew 6%.
謝謝馬丁,大家早安。接下來,我將向大家提供一些關於2025年第三季財務業績和全年展望的更多細節。第三季淨銷售額非常強勁,年增 4,900 萬美元,增幅達 37%,達到 1.82 億美元。Vita Coco椰子水成長了42%,自有品牌成長了6%。
Our quarterly results benefited from the continuing strong category growth, the restoration of a key club retailer promotion in the US, as well as a depressed third quarter reported last year when we were significantly inventory challenged. Please note that the key retailer promotion that we ran in late Q3 and early Q4 this year has created unusually healthy scan trends in the US, and I would suggest that you look at a two-year growth rate for an appropriate reading on the underlying momentum.
我們的季度業績受惠於品類持續強勁成長、美國一家主要俱樂部零售商的促銷活動恢復,以及去年第三季業績低迷(當時我們面臨嚴重的庫存挑戰)。請注意,我們今年第三季末和第四季初開展的重點零售商促銷活動在美國產生了異常健康的掃描趨勢,我建議您查看兩年的成長率,以便更好地了解潛在的成長勢頭。
On a segment basis, within the Americas, Vita Coco coconut water increased net sales 41% to $132 million, and private label decreased 13% to $14 million. Vita Coco coconut water saw a 30% volume increase and a price mix benefit of 8%. The branded price mix benefit was driven by the cumulative effect of our two price increases in 2025. Our other product category grew 182%, primarily reflecting the national launch of Vita Coco Treats.
從美洲市場來看,Vita Coco 椰子水的淨銷售額成長了 41%,達到 1.32 億美元,而自有品牌的銷售額下降了 13%,至 1,400 萬美元。Vita Coco 椰子水銷售成長了 30%,價格組合效益為 8%。品牌價格組合優勢是由我們在 2025 年兩次漲價的累積效應所驅動的。我們的其他產品類別成長了 182%,這主要反映了 Vita Coco Treats 在全國的推出。
Our International segment continued to deliver exceptionally strong results in the third quarter with net sales up 48% in Vita Coco coconut water growing 47%, driven by strong growth across our major markets. Private label sales increased 70% due to strong sales of private label coconut water within our current customer base. For the quarter, consolidated gross profit was $69 million, an increase of $17 million versus the prior year.
第三季度,我們的國際業務部門持續取得非常強勁的業績,Vita Coco 椰子水淨銷售額成長 48%,成長 47%,這主要得益於我們主要市場的強勁成長。自有品牌椰子水在我們現有客戶群中的強勁銷售,使得自有品牌銷售額成長了 70%。本季綜合毛利為 6,900 萬美元,較上年同期增加 1,700 萬美元。
On a percentage basis, gross margins finished at 38% for the quarter. This was down approximately 110 basis points from the 39% reported in the third quarter of 2024. This decrease in gross margin resulted from higher year-on-year finished goods, product costs, and the baseline 10% import tariffs announced in April, plus a very minor impact from the August tariffs that collectively created a $6 million tariff impact in the quarter. This was partially offset by our combined pricing actions and lower year-on-year (inaudible) for expense, as well as the recovery of a reserve for private label packaging.
本季毛利率為38%。這比 2024 年第三季報告的 39% 下降了約 110 個基點。毛利率下降是由於成品、產品成本年漲,以及4月宣布的10%基準進口關稅,再加上8月關稅的輕微影響,這些因素共同導致該季關稅影響達600萬美元。這部分被我們的綜合定價措施和年比(聽不清楚)支出減少所抵消,以及自有品牌包裝準備金的收回。
Moving on to operating expenses, SG&A costs increased $10 million to $41 million within the quarter, driven primarily by higher people-related costs and increased marketing expenses. Net income attributable to shareholders for the quarter was $24 million for $0.40 per diluted share, compared to $190 million or $0.32 per diluted share for the prior year.
再來看營運費用,本季銷售、一般及行政費用增加了 1,000 萬美元,達到 4,100 萬美元,主要原因是人力成本增加和行銷費用增加。本季歸屬於股東的淨利為 2,400 萬美元,即每股攤薄收益 0.40 美元,而上年同期為 1.9 億美元,即每股攤薄收益 0.32 美元。
Net income benefited from higher gross profit in the lower year-on-year tax rate, partially offset by higher SG&A spending and the lower gain on derivatives than in the prior year. Our effective tax rate for the third quarter of 2025 was 22% or 25% last year, which is primarily driven by the discrete tax benefits and a favorable geographic mix of pre-tax profits.
淨利潤受益於同比較低的稅率帶來的更高毛利潤,但部分被更高的銷售、一般及行政費用以及比上一年更低的衍生品收益所抵消。2025 年第三季我們的實際稅率為 22% 或去年的 25%,這主要是由於稅收優惠和稅前利潤的有利地域組合所致。
Third-quarter 2025 adjusted EBITDA was $32 million or 18% of net sales compared to $23 million or 17% of net sales in 2024. The increase in adjusted EBITDA was primarily due to higher net sales and gross profit, partially offset by higher SG&A expenses.
2025 年第三季調整後 EBITDA 為 3,200 萬美元,佔淨銷售額的 18%,而 2024 年為 2,300 萬美元,佔淨銷售額的 17%。調整後 EBITDA 的成長主要歸功於淨銷售額和毛利的成長,但部分被較高的銷售、一般及行政費用所抵銷。
Turning to our balance sheet and cash flow, as of September 30, 2025, our balance sheet remained very strong, with total cash on hand of $204 million and no debt under our revolving credit facility. We have generated $39 million of cash year to date, driven by our strong net income, partially offset by increases in working capital, primarily due to increased accounts receivable. Our updated guidance reflects our current best assumptions on marketplace trends and timing of our shipments, as well as the continuation of the US tariff levels announced in August.
再來看我們的資產負債表和現金流量,截至 2025 年 9 月 30 日,我們的資產負債表依然非常強勁,手頭現金總額為 2.04 億美元,且循環信貸額度下無任何債務。今年迄今為止,我們已產生 3,900 萬美元現金,這主要得益於我們強勁的淨收入,但部分被營運資金的增加所抵消,而營運資金的增加主要是由於應收帳款的增加。我們更新後的指導意見反映了我們目前對市場趨勢和出貨時間的最佳假設,以及美國在 8 月宣布的關稅水準的延續。
Based on our current trends, we are raising our full-year net sales guidance to between $580 million to $595 million. We expect full-year gross margins of approximately 36%, with higher finished good costs, including tariffs relative to last year, being partially offset by our increased pricing and slightly lower logistics costs.
根據我們目前的趨勢,我們將全年淨銷售額預期上調至 5.8 億美元至 5.95 億美元之間。我們預計全年毛利率約為 36%,成品成本(包括關稅)將比去年增加,但部分增加將被我們提高的價格和略微降低的物流成本所抵消。
The impact of US tariffs announced in April and August has increased through the year. For the full year, we expect to see an increase in our cost of goods of between $14 million and $16 million versus the prior year. We expect our average tariff rate on imported US goods to peak at the previously mentioned rate of 23%, and this should start hitting our P&L late in the fourth quarter, depending on actual sales and inventory usage.
美國在4月和8月宣布的關稅措施的影響在年內不斷加劇。預計全年商品成本將比上年增加 1,400 萬美元至 1,600 萬美元。我們預計對美國進口商品的平均關稅稅率將達到先前提到的 23% 的峰值,這將在第四季末開始對我們的損益表產生影響,具體取決於實際銷售額和庫存使用情況。
Our sales expectation is based on a tougher Q4 net sales comparable to last year when we benefited from distributor and retail inventory rebuild. We expect full-year SG&A expenses to increase high-single digit versus 2024. This, combined with their expected higher net sales, is resulting in a higher adjusted EBITDA guidance of $90 million to $95 million.
我們的銷售預期是基於第四季淨銷售額將比去年同期更為艱難的預期,去年我們受惠於經銷商和零售商的庫存重建。我們預計全年銷售、管理及行政費用將比 2024 年高個位數成長。這一點,再加上預期更高的淨銷售額,使得調整後 EBITDA 預期值提高至 9,000 萬美元至 9,500 萬美元。
Our full-year [LTGA] increase is due to increased people investments, including increased incentive and self-compensation, and higher year-on-year sales and marketing expenses, and other focused investments to support the delivery of our growth objectives as we aim to maintain a strong branded growth momentum into 2026.
我們全年[LTGA]成長是由於人員投資增加,包括增加激勵和自我補償,以及逐年增加的銷售和行銷費用,以及其他有針對性的投資,以支持我們實現成長目標,力爭在2026年保持強勁的品牌成長勢頭。
We look forward to providing additional updates and form our 2026 guidance on our next earnings call. And with that, I'd like to turn the call back to Martin for his closing remarks.
我們期待在下次財報電話會議上提供更多最新消息,並制定 2026 年業績指引。接下來,我想把電話轉回給馬丁,請他作總結發言。
Martin Roper - Chief Executive Officer, Director
Martin Roper - Chief Executive Officer, Director
Thank you, Corey. To close, I'd like you to reiterate our confidence in the long-term potential of the Vita Coco Company, our ability to build a better beverage platform, and the strength of our Vita Coco brand and the coconut water category. We are confident in our ability to navigate the current environment and are excited about our key initiatives to drive growth.
謝謝你,科里。最後,我想請您重申我們對 Vita Coco 公司的長期潛力、我們建立更好的飲料平台的能力以及 Vita Coco 品牌和椰子水類別的實力的信心。我們對自身應對當前環境的能力充滿信心,並對推動成長的關鍵舉措感到興奮。
We have a strong brand and a solid balance sheet and believe that we are well positioned to drive category and brand growth both domestically and internationally. Thank you for joining us today and thank you for your interest in the Vita Coco Company. That concludes our third-quarter 2025 prepared remarks, and we will now take your questions.
我們擁有強大的品牌和穩健的資產負債表,相信我們有能力在國內和國際市場推動品類和品牌的成長。感謝您今天蒞臨本店,也感謝您對維他可可公司的關注。我們的 2025 年第三季準備演講稿到此結束,現在我們將回答各位的問題。
Operator
Operator
(Operator Instructions) Bonnie Herzog, Goldman Sachs.
(操作說明)邦妮·赫爾佐格,高盛。
Bonnie Herzog - Analyst
Bonnie Herzog - Analyst
I had a couple of questions on your guidance. First, you raised your top-line growth guidance, but it does imply a sharp decline of about 15% in Q4 at the midpoint. So I understand you've got a tough comp in the prior year to lap, but I guess I wanted to better understand this expectation. Was there a pull forward of shipments from Q4 to Q3, for instance? Is there anything -- I guess, in particular, expected in Q4 as it relates to private label.
我有一些關於您指導的問題。首先,你們提高了營收成長預期,但這確實意味著第四季營收中位數將大幅下降約 15%。我知道你們去年面臨一場激烈的競爭,但我還是想更能理解你們的期望。例如,是否有從第四季提前到第三季的出貨量?第四季自有品牌方面有什麼值得期待的嗎?
And then on EBITDA, your new guidance implies a big ramp in growth in Q4. So could you give us some more color on the drivers of that expected acceleration?
至於 EBITDA,你們的新指引意味著第四季將大幅成長。那麼,您能否再詳細解釋一下推動預期加速的因素呢?
Corey Baker - Chief Financial Officer
Corey Baker - Chief Financial Officer
So from a top-line perspective, as we've talked about, we've been focused on the full year and the quarters, especially around Q3, Q4 are quite hard to tell. We would ask you to take a look at the two-year stack, which in the underlying base business, is still very, very strong. [Half two] in quarter on quarter is showing double-digit growth in a two-year CAGR and the underlying business.
所以從總體上看,正如我們之前討論過的,我們一直關注的是全年和季度業績,尤其是第三季度,第四季度的情況很難說。請您來看看過去兩年的業績數據,其基礎業務依然非常強勁。 [上半年]季增來看,兩年複合年增長率和基礎業務均實現了兩位數成長。
And we do have the current trends of the private label business which, as we talked about in Q2, I believe Q2 is down in the mid-30s. We would expect that trend to continue. Martin referenced new private label business starting in 2026. At this point, we don't expect any impact from that, but we may get some, as the timing of private label is quite challenging. So at the midpoint, we feel there's still a strong underlying growth trends and embedded in there offset with the private label.
我們確實看到了自有品牌業務目前的趨勢,正如我們在第二季度討論的那樣,我認為第二季度下降到了 30% 左右。我們預計這種趨勢還會持續下去。Martin提到將於2026年開始新的自有品牌業務。目前我們預計不會受到任何影響,但可能會受到一些影響,因為自有品牌的推出時間表相當具有挑戰性。因此,在中期,我們認為仍然存在強勁的潛在成長趨勢,而自有品牌則起到了一定的抵銷作用。
And then from an EBITDA perspective, we've embedded the tariffs at the 23%. We currently see (inaudible) inbounding to the country. Those will gradually increase through the quarter, peaking at that 23% roughly at the end of the quarter, and then it's the current level of pricing.
從 EBITDA 的角度來看,我們已將關稅計入 23%。我們目前看到(聽不清楚)人員入境該國。這些漲幅將在本季逐漸增加,在本季末達到高峰 23%,然後維持在當前價格水準。
Bonnie Herzog - Analyst
Bonnie Herzog - Analyst
Okay, thank you. And just want to verify there's nothing that we should think about as it relates to inventory levels to -- in terms of Q3 versus Q4. Nothing to call out there?
好的,謝謝。我只是想確認一下,就第三季與第四季的庫存水準而言,我們是否沒有什麼需要考慮的事情。沒什麼好說的嗎?
Corey Baker - Chief Financial Officer
Corey Baker - Chief Financial Officer
Yeah, it's quite hard for us. We don't have complete visibility as to inventory. It's just why we stay focused on the full year. Q3 had the large retailer promotion, so the timing of that may have been a little heavier in Q3. And as you know, we've talked about we expect, improved distribution at Walmart, how that ships to distributors and exactly when that inventory will pull is hard to call as well. So I would stay focused on the two-year second-half trends maybe and you'll see a very strong growth.
是的,這對我們來說相當困難。我們對庫存情況沒有完全的了解。這就是為什麼我們要著眼於全年目標的原因。第三季有大型零售商促銷活動,因此第三季的促銷可能稍大。如您所知,我們已經討論過我們期望沃爾瑪的配送服務會有所改進,但如何將貨物運送給分銷商以及庫存何時能夠到位,這些都很難預測。所以我建議你專注在未來兩年下半年的趨勢,你會看到非常強勁的成長。
Martin Roper - Chief Executive Officer, Director
Martin Roper - Chief Executive Officer, Director
I would just add that I think we think distributor inventories at the end of the quarter were healthy and were sort of ready to support the warm up set process, and obviously, how those adjust through the end of the year, as you know can produce a little bit of noise at the end of the year, but we currently think inventory levels are appropriate based on the activity we see in Q4.
我還要補充一點,我們認為本季末分銷商的庫存狀況良好,基本上能夠支援預熱設定流程。當然,正如您所知,這些庫存到年底的調整情況可能會在年底產生一些波動,但根據我們在第四季度看到的活動情況,我們目前認為庫存水準是合適的。
Bonnie Herzog - Analyst
Bonnie Herzog - Analyst
Okay, super helpful. If I may just squeeze in a quick question on private label because it's certainly been a focus and you touched on this, hoping for maybe just a little bit more color on what you touched on the recent private label customer wins. How do we think about these wins, meaning offsetting some of the prior losses, if at all.
好的,非常有幫助。如果可以的話,我想快速問一個關於自有品牌的問題,因為這無疑是我們關注的重點,您也談到了這一點,希望能更詳細地了解一下您最近在自有品牌客戶拓展方面所提到的內容。我們如何看待這些勝利,也就是說,這些勝利能否抵銷先前的某些損失?
And then, as you think about your private label business, how do you believe it's advantaged maybe versus peers and how do we think about your approach to private label next year and beyond? Is this something you're going to aggressively pursue?
那麼,當您考慮您的自有品牌業務時,您認為它與同行相比有哪些優勢?我們又該如何看待您明年及以後的自有品牌策略?你會積極推進這件事嗎?
Martin Roper - Chief Executive Officer, Director
Martin Roper - Chief Executive Officer, Director
Yeah, I think as we've said all along, Bonnie, we view the private label business as one that's complementary to our brand on a number of factors, both on the supply chain side and the retailer relationship side.
是的,邦妮,我認為正如我們一直以來所說的那樣,我們認為自有品牌業務在許多方面都與我們的品牌相輔相成,無論是在供應鏈方面還是在與零售商的關係方面。
And so we intend to continue to seek private label business or regain private label business and be competitive in it. As it relates to how we think about our competitive position, we believe that we are uniquely placed to provide large private label programs with diversified supply of private label across multiple countries, multiple factories. And we also believe that some of our sourcing leads to a cost advantage and a service advantage and a quality advantage.
因此,我們打算繼續尋求或重新獲得自有品牌業務,並在該領域保持競爭力。至於我們如何看待自身的競爭地位,我們相信我們擁有獨特的優勢,能夠為大型自有品牌項目提供多元化的自有品牌產品供應,涵蓋多個國家和多個工廠。我們也相信,我們的一些採購方式能夠帶來成本優勢、服務優勢和品質優勢。
Now that doesn't always play out in how those bids are awarded, and so it hasn't all been wins, but we certainly believe that we are strategically well positioned to compete going forward. As it relates to your question, we're obviously not providing any sort of '26 guidance here. What I would say is that we recovered some of the regions that we lost, but not all of them. So we still have some headwinds next year, which may or may not be offset by some of the winds on the new customer front, but it's sort of -- to us, we lost regions early in the year and we're regaining some of them.
當然,最終得標結果並不總是如此,所以我們並非每次都能中標,但我們堅信,我們在策略上已經佔據了有利地位,能夠在未來展開競爭。至於你的問題,我們顯然不會在這裡提供任何關於「26」的指導。我想說的是,我們收復了一些失去的地區,但並非全部。所以明年我們仍然會面臨一些不利因素,這些不利因素可能會被新客戶方面的一些利好因素抵消,也可能不會,但對我們來說,情況有點——我們在年初失去了一些地區,現在我們正在重新奪回其中一些地區。
To us, that shows that our sort of supply position is competitive on a quality service and price perspective, and it gives us hope that we can recover more, but obviously, there are no guarantees and nor have anything been announced or there's more expectations and hopes over, let's say, a multiple year period as opposed to a single year period.
對我們來說,這表明我們在品質服務和價格方面具有競爭力,也讓我們有希望恢復更多,但顯然,沒有任何保證,也沒有任何公告,而且更多的是針對多年期而不是一年期的預期和希望。
So I think in the next year, private label probably will still be a slight drag for us, but obviously the category on our [lost] business basis. But the category is very healthy. It's growing. The private label business that is retained is growing because the private label business is healthy too, similar to the category. So again, I would just say we're optimistic for a good '26, but we're not in a position to provide guidance.
所以我認為,明年自有品牌可能仍然會為我們帶來一些拖累,但顯然,就我們(損失的)業務而言,這個類別的影響會更大。但這一類別發展勢頭非常健康。它正在增長。保留下來的自有品牌業務正在成長,因為自有品牌業務本身也很健康,與該品類的情況類似。所以,我再次強調,我們對 2026 年持樂觀態度,但我們目前無法提供具體指引。
Bonnie Herzog - Analyst
Bonnie Herzog - Analyst
Okay. Super helpful. I'll pass it on. Thank you.
好的。非常有用。我會轉達的。謝謝。
Operator
Operator
Chris Carey, Wells Fargo Securities.
克里斯凱裡,富國證券。
Chris Carey - Analyst
Chris Carey - Analyst
The implied Q4 gross margin, a couple of questions there. So the first is just the Brazil tariffs. Is it reasonable to assume that Q3 did not include much of those, and those will be heavily concentrated in Q4? And so I'd love some perspective on that because Q4 has some seasonality that it's lower than Q3, but there's also this new cost factor. So I'd love maybe a bit more detail on how you see that impact.
關於第四季隱含毛利率,這裡有幾個問題。所以首先是巴西關稅。是否可以合理假設第三季並未包含大部分此類事件,而這些事件將主要集中在第四季?所以我很想了解這方面的情況,因為第四季度的數據會受到季節性因素的影響,低於第三季度,但同時也存在新的成本因素。所以我很想聽聽您如何看待這種影響,希望能了解更多細節。
The second thing is how are you thinking about some of the headlines around tariffs, what are some of the key markers that you're looking for as it pertains to Brazil? The reason I ask is because, at what point do we start thinking that you may need to take some pricing going into the front half of next year, how long will you assess the tariff backdrop before making that decision?
第二點是,您如何看待一些與關稅相關的新聞標題?就巴西而言,您關注的關鍵指標有哪些?我這樣問是因為,我們什麼時候開始考慮您可能需要在明年上半年進行一些定價?在做出決定之前,您會評估關稅背景多久?
Michael Kirban - Executive Chairman of the Board, Co-Founder
Michael Kirban - Executive Chairman of the Board, Co-Founder
I think for starters, the headlines are interesting and definitely worth looking into. I mean, the numbers that we've given in terms of what tariffs look like for us as of the end of the quarter are -- could change, and this is what we're dealing with is the uncertainty around it. I mean, if you look at the headlines over the weekend, obviously, Trump and Brazil's President, Lula, had a good meeting and have committed to getting a trade deal done and Brazil has asked for relief on the 40% reciprocal tariff.
我認為首先,這些標題很有趣,絕對值得深入研究。我的意思是,我們給出的截至本季末的關稅數據可能會發生變化,而我們現在面臨的就是這種不確定性。我的意思是,如果你看看週末的新聞頭條,很明顯,川普和巴西總統盧拉舉行了一次良好的會晤,並承諾達成貿易協議,而巴西則要求免除 40% 的對等關稅。
It hasn't been denied, hasn't yet been approved, but we're hopeful that we'll see some changes in the -- on a positive level as it relates to Brazil. And then even as you look at some of the other trade deals that are getting done, if you even look at Cambodia and Malaysia, which happened this weekend, coconuts are listed as excluded from the tariffs in those trade deals. Coconut water is not yet.
雖然還沒有被拒絕,也沒有被批准,但我們希望在與巴西相關的方面能看到一些積極的變化。即使看看其他一些正在達成的貿易協議,例如本週末柬埔寨和馬來西亞達成的協議,椰子也被列為這些貿易協議中關稅豁免的商品。椰子水還沒上市。
This is something obviously we're hopeful for and working on, but I think it's pretty clear that the administration is looking to exclude unavailable natural resources, we've just got to make sure that coconut water is recognized. And so as these trade deals continue to get done with different countries in which we source from, we're hopeful that we'll see some improvement to the tariff numbers that we've talked about, but as of now, that's where we stand.
這顯然是我們抱持希望並正在努力的事情,但我認為很明顯,政府正在試圖排除無法獲得的自然資源,我們只需要確保椰子水得到認可。因此,隨著我們與不同採購國的貿易協議不斷達成,我們希望看到我們討論過的關稅數字有所改善,但就目前而言,情況就是這樣。
Martin Roper - Chief Executive Officer, Director
Martin Roper - Chief Executive Officer, Director
And Chris, going back to the start of your question, which was, did the increased tariffs from early August hit Q2 P&L? Maybe you, Corey, you could take that.
克里斯,回到你最初的問題,那就是,8 月初提高的關稅是否影響了第二季的損益?或許你可以接手,科里。
Corey Baker - Chief Financial Officer
Corey Baker - Chief Financial Officer
Yeah, Chris, it was a small amount. If we think of the tariffs of April and August, the August tariffs had very little impact on Q3, a slight bit at the end and that'll ramp up towards that 23% rate. And we anticipate that would hit late in the quarter, November, December timeframe, and then be at that steady rate through next year, barring any of these changes we're hopeful for.
是的,克里斯,金額很小。如果我們回顧 4 月和 8 月的關稅,8 月的關稅對第三季的影響很小,只是在最後階段略有影響,而且會逐漸增加到 23% 的水平。我們預計這種情況會在本季末,也就是 11 月或 12 月期間出現,然後一直保持這種穩定的速度直到明年,除非出現我們所希望的任何變化。
Martin Roper - Chief Executive Officer, Director
Martin Roper - Chief Executive Officer, Director
And then Chris relative to your pricing question, we took pricing in July to mitigate the 10% baseline tariff from April on a dollar basis, right? And I think we indicated in call that that was showing up as like a 7% pricing on a two-year basis, comparison to two years ago is how it's showing up and that would -- yeah, I suppose also include the May, so that's the impact of both pricing.
克里斯,關於你的定價問題,我們在 7 月採取的定價策略是為了抵消 4 月以美元計價的 10% 基準關稅,對嗎?我認為我們在電話會議中已經指出,這表現為兩年期價格上漲了約 7%,與兩年前相比,價格上漲了約 7%。是的,我想這也包括了五月的價格,所以這就是價格上漲的影響。
We're still monitoring the impact. There's certainly been a slight volume decline with the pricing, but in line with our expectations, but we want to monitor it. We're also monitoring competitive actions, and movements on private label pricing where we expect private label pricing to follow the tariffs, right, because it's a cost-plus business model for our retailers. And so we're monitoring that to see what happens.
我們仍在密切關注其影響。價格上漲確實導致銷量略有下降,但這符合我們的預期,不過我們會繼續觀察。我們也密切關注競爭對手的行動,以及自有品牌定價的動向。我們預期自有品牌定價會跟隨關稅的變動,因為對我們的零售商來說,這是一種成本加成商業模式。所以我們正在密切關注事態發展。
We don't feel in a rush to sort of mitigate further the tariffs, and while we wait for that, we're also working on the mitigation strategies, particularly as it relates to Brazil, which is the outlier in our tariff environment at 50%. And those mitigation activities revolve around taking Brazil production to other countries other than the US. It's not as simple as just a switch because you have to get packaging in place. You have to get approvals in place.
我們並不急於進一步降低關稅,在等待降低關稅的同時,我們也在研究緩解策略,特別是針對巴西的緩解策略,巴西的關稅在我們的關稅環境中屬於異常值,高達 50%。這些緩解措施的核心是將巴西的生產轉移到美國以外的其他國家。這並非簡單地更換一個開關就能解決的問題,因為你還需要做好包裝。你需要獲得相關批准。
So we're working to be ready to be able to do that over the next few months and certainly complete that if the Brazil tariffs stay in place by the end of next year. So we want to see how those mitigation efforts go. You said the tariffs is very fluid. It is obviously very fluid. We don't want to take price if we effectively have to give it back.
因此,我們正在努力做好準備,以便在未來幾個月內能夠做到這一點,如果巴西關稅在明年年底前繼續有效,我們肯定會完成這項工作。所以我們希望看看這些緩解措施的效果如何。你說過關稅政策變動非常頻繁。它顯然非常具有流動性。如果我們最終不得不把錢退還出去,我們就不想接受這個價格。
So we're thinking we'll make pricing decisions in Q1 that might take effect Q2 based on our view on where tariffs are and mitigation actions are in Q1. We're reserving the right to take pricing or not take pricing based on what we see in the marketplace and what we think is right for the brand long term.
因此,我們計劃在第一季根據我們對第一季關稅和緩解措施的看法,做出可能在第二季生效的定價決定。我們保留根據市場狀況以及我們認為對品牌長期發展有利的因素來決定是否定價的權利。
Chris Carey - Analyst
Chris Carey - Analyst
Perfect. Quick follow up or perhaps not, but International, just give us a sense of where we are in the international journey. I suppose you're going to say early, but it's really starting to come through. So how are you thinking about the growth runway at international and just remind us on your capacity to service that international market given your supply.
完美的。或許不需要立即跟進,但國際部門,請讓我們了解我們在國際發展道路上的位置。我想你可能會說現在還早,但它確實開始顯現出來了。那麼,您如何看待國際市場的成長前景?鑑於您的供應能力,請您簡要說明您服務國際市場的能力。
Martin Roper - Chief Executive Officer, Director
Martin Roper - Chief Executive Officer, Director
Yeah. Let's start with the capacity as we sort of have talked about for like the last 18 months. We started adding capacity because we saw the category accelerating both in the US and in our coal markets internationally and so we've been adding capacity to support growth rates in the mid-teens or a little bit higher. And that is progressing well.
是的。讓我們先從產能問題開始,就像我們在過去18個月裡一直在討論的那樣。我們開始增加產能,因為我們看到該類別在美國和國際煤炭市場都在加速成長,所以我們一直在增加產能以支持十幾分甚至更高的成長率。進展順利。
It's a lot of work and like a big shout out to the team involved. We're adding one to two or more factories a year, and it's -- there's a lot of hard work going on in that. So we don't see a capacity issue in supporting this over the next few years. And then as it relates to your international question, we view category development in our core markets internationally, which we would describe as the UK and Germany as being underdeveloped versus the US.
這需要付出很多努力,在此向參與其中的團隊致以崇高的敬意。我們每年都會新增一到兩家甚至更多工廠,這其中有許多艱苦的工作要做。因此,我們認為未來幾年內支持這項業務不會出現能力問題。至於您提出的國際問題,我們認為,與美國相比,我們核心市場(例如英國和德國)的品類發展尚不成熟。
And I would refer you to our investor presentation from June where we provided an estimate of how -- of consumption per population, right, by different countries. So you'll see there that the UK is about a third of the US. Germany is like 10% of the US. So it's pretty early, and obviously the US is still growing.
我建議您參考我們六月的投資者演示文稿,其中我們提供了不同國家人均消費量的估算。所以你會發現,英國的人口大約是美國的三分之一。德國的人口大約只有美國的十分之一。現在還為時過早,而且顯然美國仍在發展中。
So we see it as early innings, and I think big picture longer term, the way we think about it for -- in our 5-, 10-, 15-year planning, I suppose I do 10-year planning. Mike does 5-year planning. We want Europe to be as large as the US, right? So is it possible that that could happen? Absolutely. Populations are good. Demographics, income levels, health orientation are all good. So we think coconut water is still in early innings in Europe.
所以我們認為這只是早期階段,我認為從長遠來看,我們考慮的方式是——在我們的 5 年、10 年、15 年規劃中,我想我做的是 10 年規劃。麥克負責制定五年計劃。我們都希望歐洲的規模能跟美國一樣大,對吧?那麼,這種情況有可能發生嗎?絕對地。人口狀況良好。人口結構、收入水準、健康觀念都很好。所以我們認為椰子水在歐洲還處於起步階段。
Chris Carey - Analyst
Chris Carey - Analyst
Thanks so much, guys.
非常感謝各位。
Operator
Operator
Robert Ottenstein, Evercore ISI.
Robert Ottenstein,Evercore ISI。
Robert Ottenstein - Equity Analyst
Robert Ottenstein - Equity Analyst
Congratulations on another terrific quarter. I want to kind of double or triple click down on International which just seems super exciting. So just to help us get a little bit more granularity on the business, can you give us a sense based on what you've learned today how the international market and in terms of Europe, is there significant difference in terms of the consumer occasions and how they look at the category?
恭喜你們又一個季度取得了優異的成績。我想雙擊或三擊“國際版”,這看起來太令人興奮了。為了幫助我們更深入地了解業務,您能否根據今天所了解到的情況,談談國際市場,特別是歐洲市場,在消費者消費場景和他們看待該品類的方式方面是否存在顯著差異?
How would you compare the competitive intensity in Europe versus the US margin profile. And then just in terms of this quarter, was there anything unusual that perhaps flattered the results?
您如何比較歐洲的競爭強度和美國的利潤率狀況?那麼就本季而言,是否有任何異常情況導致業績看起來更好?
Martin Roper - Chief Executive Officer, Director
Martin Roper - Chief Executive Officer, Director
Yeah, sure. I'll try and get to all of these. Let's see. International is very exciting. International for us is sort of largely Europe. That's where the strength is. It's led by the UK, which was launched about 11, 12 years ago. I'm probably a little bit off on that, but effectively 10 years behind the US and its launch trajectory.
當然可以。我會盡量把這些都完成。讓我們來看看。國際化令人興奮。對我們而言,國際範圍主要指歐洲。這就是優勢所在。它由英國牽頭,大約在 11、12 年前啟動。我可能在這方面有點偏差,但實際上比美國及其發射軌跡落後了 10 年。
In the UK, there is a healthy category, but our brand has over 80% share of it. It is largely cold in the stores, which is a difference to obviously the US where we're warm shelf, and the competitive players, sort of really don't -- aren't that strong, because with over 80% share there's not -- no one really talk about. About five years ago, Innocent Juice had a coconut water brand that probably had 10%, 15%, 20% share, but that has largely been squeezed down to low-single digits.
在英國,健康食品市場佔有相當大的份額,但我們的品牌佔了超過 80% 的市場。商店裡大多是冷的,這顯然與美國不同,美國是暖貨架,而且競爭對手其實並不——實力並不強,因為市場份額超過 80%,所以——沒有人真正談論它。大約五年前,Innocent Juice 旗下有一個椰子水品牌,市佔率可能達到 10%、15%、20%,但現在已經大幅下降到個位數。
And so we have a very strong position and we're focused on growing the category, and then obviously, maintaining our share of the category. As the category growth continues, obviously, retailers get excited and they could introduce new brands, et cetera. But it's largely small stuff, and I don't think we see any impact from that, but would I expect the competitive environment to continue to be active? Yes, of course.
因此,我們擁有非常強大的市場地位,我們專注於發展該品類,然後顯然,還要保持我們在該品類中的份額。隨著品類持續成長,零售商自然會感到興奮,他們可能會推出新品牌等等。但這大多是小事,我認為我們不會因此受到任何影響,但我預期競爭環境會繼續保持活躍嗎?是的當然。
The rest of Europe, for the most part, has been small for us up until about two years ago. We put a commercial leader into Germany to try and open up the private label business. In a lot of the rest of Europe, private label was actually a very big player in coconut water, whereas in the UK it isn't as big a player, and in many of those countries, coconut -- private label is the largest sort of non-brand, but obviously, it's across multiple retailers, but it's very significant.
直到大約兩年前,歐洲其他地區對我們來說大多都很小。我們派了一位商業領袖到德國,試圖開拓自有品牌市場。在歐洲其他很多地方,自有品牌在椰子水中扮演著非常重要的角色,而在英國,自有品牌的市佔率並不大。在許多國家,椰子水——自有品牌是最大的非品牌產品,但顯然,它分佈在多個零售商中,而且非常重要。
So we led with developing retail relationships with private label and that then allowed us as coconut water growth started to take off. We were asked whether we'd bring the brand in and we were able to do so. We're in very early innings in Germany. We have national authorizations. Germany retail is interesting in that national authorization doesn't result in distribution in many of the retailers. You have to then go get a regional approval and then actually go store or store collective to get, to build that out.
因此,我們首先著手發展與自有品牌零售商的關係,這讓我們得以在椰子水業務開始起飛的過程中取得成功。有人問我們是否願意引進這個品牌,我們做到了。我們在德國的比賽才剛開始。我們擁有國家授權。德國零售業很有意思,因為即使獲得了國家授權,許多零售商也並未獲得分銷權。然後你必須獲得地區批准,然後才能實際去商店或商店聯盟進行建設。
So we're in pretty early innings there. And as I look at the next two years, the blocking and tackling is actually delivering on the national distribution that we've been awarded by selling it at the regional and the local level, and that's probably a multiyear task.
所以我們現在還處於比賽的早期階段。展望未來兩年,目前的各項工作實際上是透過在區域和地方層級進行銷售,來實現我們獲得的全國分銷目標,而這可能是一項需要多年才能完成的任務。
Interestingly, as we launched Vita Coco into Germany, we saw the category growth accelerate. I think that's partly because there aren't strong brands there that are investing and have good brand recognition, and we've been able to gain a very significant piece of that growth. So we've gone from effectively 0% branded share to a healthy brand share by grabbing that growth. That said, the private label business has also accelerated, so it's been good for the category, and obviously we try and compete in that.
有趣的是,當我們把 Vita Coco 推向德國市場時,我們發現該品類的成長速度加快了。我認為這部分原因是因為那裡沒有實力雄厚、投資力度大、品牌知名度高的品牌,而我們得以從中分得非常重要的一杯羹。因此,我們透過抓住成長機會,將品牌份額從幾乎為 0% 提升到了健康的品牌份額。也就是說,自有品牌業務也發展迅速,這對整個品類來說是件好事,顯然我們也在努力參與競爭。
So we're trying to take some of the learnings from these markets that they're different than each other, right? And they're different both on where the category is and the retail environment and think very carefully about which markets to prioritize next, obviously, with a weight on maybe the larger markets like France and Spain. But we're also testing different routes to market and more fragmented markets like the Benelux, which is currently growing very healthily for us through a partnership with the distributor there.
所以我們正在嘗試從這些市場中學到一些經驗教訓,因為它們彼此之間各不相同,對吧?它們在品類定位和零售環境方面都存在差異,因此要非常仔細地考慮接下來應該優先考慮哪些市場,顯然,可能會更重視像法國和西班牙這樣的大市場。但我們也正在測試不同的市場管道,以及像比荷盧經濟聯盟這樣更分散的市場。目前,我們透過與當地經銷商的合作,在比荷盧經濟聯盟市場實現了非常健康的成長。
So we have different models that are working, and I think we're happy to be patient and we're not trying to blast it out and overstretch ourselves. We're trying to build it from the ground up and we feel pretty good about healthy international trends for the next few years based on that European business.
所以我們有不同的模式正在發揮作用,我認為我們樂於保持耐心,我們不會試圖倉促行事,也不會讓自己過度擴張。我們正努力從零開始打造它,並且基於歐洲業務,我們對未來幾年健康的國際趨勢感到非常樂觀。
You asked about margin. We mostly do not use distributors. We do have some reps, There are some distributors for small markets. So there isn't a distribution layer. It's direct to retail. So pricing in the market is lower than in the US, pricing to consumer because of that. And margins are good.
你問的是利潤率。我們通常不使用分銷商。我們有一些代理商,也有一些面向小市場的經銷商。所以不存在分送層。直接面向零售商銷售。因此,市場上的定價低於美國,這是因為定價面向消費者。而且利潤率也不錯。
It benefits from lower ocean freight costs from Asia to Europe, mostly. So that can support a lower price structure, but the margins are perhaps -- maybe on a branded side a little less than they are in the US, but they're still very nice and appealing. And I think I've touched on every one of your questions, but if I miss one, please re-ask.
它主要受益於亞洲到歐洲較低的海運成本。這樣可以支撐較低的價格結構,但利潤率可能——或許在品牌產品方面會比美國略低一些,但它們仍然非常不錯,很有吸引力。我想我已回答了你們的每一個問題,但如果我遺漏了什麼,請再問。
Robert Ottenstein - Equity Analyst
Robert Ottenstein - Equity Analyst
Yeah, just was there anything in this quarter on the international that flattered results in any way?
是的,本季國際賽場上有什麼事情對最終結果起到提振作用嗎?
Martin Roper - Chief Executive Officer, Director
Martin Roper - Chief Executive Officer, Director
Just strong demand.
需求強勁。
Robert Ottenstein - Equity Analyst
Robert Ottenstein - Equity Analyst
Good enough. Thank you very much.
夠好了。非常感謝。
Operator
Operator
Christian Junquera, Bank of America.
克里斯蒂安瓊奎拉,美國銀行。
Christian Junquera - Analyst
Christian Junquera - Analyst
Thanks for the question. Just two questions, a quick clarification question. Just the tariff impact for 2025, did you guys say $14 million to $16 million? And if so, that implies a blended tariff rate for this year, about like 6% to 7%. And then the expectation or what you guys are expecting is it jumps to 23% in 2026. Did we catch that correctly?
謝謝你的提問。僅兩個問題,一個需要快速澄清的問題。你們說的是2025年關稅影響的1400萬美元到1600萬美元嗎?如果是這樣,那就意味著今年的綜合關稅稅率大約在 6% 到 7% 之間。然後,預計或說你們預期的是,到 2026 年,這一比例將躍升至 23%。我們理解對了嗎?
Corey Baker - Chief Financial Officer
Corey Baker - Chief Financial Officer
The $14 million to $16 million, Christian, is correct. The percentage, the 23% is of the applicable finished goods amount which we've quantified as approximately 60% of our global cost of goods. So I'm not sure if your -- math you have on [fixed].
克里斯蒂安,1400萬美元到1600萬美元的說法是正確的。這個百分比,即 23%,是適用成品金額的百分比,我們已將其量化為全球商品成本的約 60%。所以我不確定你的——你擁有的數學知識是否…[固定的]。
Martin Roper - Chief Executive Officer, Director
Martin Roper - Chief Executive Officer, Director
So you have to remember that the tariffs were imposed initially in April -- first week of April, at a 10% rate. And what hits our P&L is delayed by when those tariffs flow through our inventory. So as an example, a 10% tariff applied on April 7 to a container leaving Asia wouldn't arrive in the US until maybe early June and then wouldn't get sold out of our inventory probably until July.
所以你必須記住,關稅最初是在四月的第一周開始徵收的,稅率為 10%。而這些關稅對我們損益表的影響,會因為關稅需要一段時間才能反映在我們的庫存中而有所延遲。舉例來說,如果 4 月 7 日對離開亞洲的貨櫃徵收 10% 的關稅,那麼該貨櫃可能要到 6 月初才能抵達美國,然後可能要到 7 月才能從我們的庫存中售出。
So our tariff impact in Q2 didn't really merit talking about. So we didn't talk about it in Q2 as a dollar amount. We talked about $6 million impact in Q3, which would largely reflect the 10% baseline tariff imposed in April because that would be the inventory flowing through our P&L in Q3. And as Corey indicated, the blended tariff rate based on our current sourcing at the end of the quarter is 23% of container shipping at the end of the quarter from source.
因此,我們第二季的關稅影響其實不值得一提。所以第二季我們沒有以美元金額來討論這個問題。我們討論了第三季 600 萬美元的影響,這主要反映了 4 月實施的 10% 基準關稅,因為這將是第三季流入我們損益表的庫存。正如 Corey 所指出的,根據我們目前的採購情況,本季末的混合關稅率為本季末從源頭發貨的貨櫃運輸費用的 23%。
That rate will -- which is the rate that effectively was put in place in early August, flows into our P&L in mid-, late Q4, but is the rate that is applicable for next year. So that's the reason that the $14 million $16 million looks small to you because effectively it's on half a year and effectively, at least half of that year is only at 10%.
該利率(即 8 月初實際實施的利率)將在第四季度中後期計入我們的損益表,但該利率適用於明年。所以,這就是為什麼你覺得 1400 萬美元、1600 萬美元看起來很少的原因,因為實際上這是半年的數額,而實際上,至少有半年的時間收益率只有 10%。
Sorry, okay, half of that six months is only at 10%. Does that make sense?
抱歉,好吧,那六個月中有一半的時間只有 10% 的收益。這樣說得通嗎?
Christian Junquera - Analyst
Christian Junquera - Analyst
Yeah, that's very helpful. Thank you for the clarification. And then if we just -- can go into -- and you've talked about it, but just the levers to offset the higher tariff rate for next year, right? You guys have the higher pricing that you took this year that's going to carry over and I mean, potentially lower ocean freight. I mean, the -- looking at the chart, it looks like rates keep going down or do you have any expectations for ocean freight next year? And I don't know if I'm missing anything else, any other levers at your disposal.
是的,這很有幫助。謝謝你的解釋。然後,如果我們能深入探討一下——你也談到了這一點,那就是如何抵消明年更高的關稅稅率,對吧?你們今年採取的較高定價策略將會延續下去,我的意思是,海運費用可能會降低。我的意思是,從圖表上看,運費似乎一直在下降,或者您對明年的海運有什麼預期嗎?我不知道我是否遺漏了其他什麼,是否有其他可以利用的手段。
Michael Kirban - Executive Chairman of the Board, Co-Founder
Michael Kirban - Executive Chairman of the Board, Co-Founder
I mean, that's the biggest benefit. That is the biggest benefit for [offset].
我的意思是,這是最大的好處。這是最大的好處[抵消]。
Martin Roper - Chief Executive Officer, Director
Martin Roper - Chief Executive Officer, Director
We're talking to suppliers and trying to work out things that we can do, but this isn't a particularly large margin business for them. Obviously, we're asking whether their governments can help as well, right? We're trying to optimize our sourcing to take advantage of the different tariff rates, but really that means trying to avoid Brazil if we can, right? And the base pricing we took in July that was again incremental to our May pricing was designed to cover the dollar impact of the 10% price line.
我們正在與供應商洽談,努力找出我們可以做的事情,但這對他們來說並不是一個利潤特別高的行業。顯然,我們也在問他們的政府是否也能提供協助,對吧?我們正在努力優化採購,以利用不同的關稅稅率,但實際上這意味著如果可以的話,盡量避免從巴西採購,對吧?我們在 7 月採取的基本定價(比 5 月的定價略有提高)旨在彌補 10% 價格線帶來的美元影響。
Obviously, we're evaluating the impact of that and if we think we'd have to take more pricing, and it's prudent given the competitive environment, and our brand trends, and everything else, and all our mitigation efforts, then we will consider it. But we're a little reluctant to rush into pricing if indeed some of these tariffs may be waived under the trade agreements that Mike was talking about.
顯然,我們正在評估這方面的影響,如果我們認為必須提高價格,並且考慮到競爭環境、品牌趨勢以及其他所有因素和我們採取的所有緩解措施,這樣做是審慎的,那麼我們會考慮這樣做。但如果麥克所說的貿易協定真的能豁免其中一些關稅,我們就不太願意急於定價。
We obviously have the Supreme Court case coming up next week, which may or may not also declare that the tariffs don't apply. So we're a little reluctant to rush into pricing until we get a better feel for all these impacts.
顯然,下週最高法院將審理此案,該案可能會也可能不會宣布關稅不適用。因此,在更好地了解所有這些影響之前,我們不太願意倉促定價。
Christian Junquera - Analyst
Christian Junquera - Analyst
Perfect. Thank you.
完美的。謝謝。
Operator
Operator
John Anderson, William Blair.
約翰·安德森,威廉·布萊爾。
Jon Andersen - Analyst
Jon Andersen - Analyst
Couple questions. We talked a lot on the call about headwinds from ocean freight, not ocean freight tariffs, I'm sorry. But I did want to ask a little bit more about ocean freight because the rates look like they've been cut in half year over year. And that started happening earlier this year, the decline year over year and down 50% starting in the mid-year. And I think you're operating off of, as you pointed out, a lot of spot situations right now.
幾個問題。很抱歉,我們在電話會議上主要討論的是海運面臨的不利因素,而不是海運關稅。但我確實想再了解一下海運的情況,因為運費似乎比去年減少了一半。這種情況從今年年初就開始出現了,比去年同期下降,年中開始下降了 50%。正如你所指出的,我認為你現在很多時候都是在處理一些臨時性的情況。
And again, I don't know the exact kind of composition of your cost of goods, but the freight piece seems like a big piece of the cost of goods, and if that's come down to that degree, that would be much more impactful than the tariff piece here. So we'd be looking at a pretty good margin outlook -- a gross margin outlook for '26. How do you kind of think about that?
另外,我不太清楚你們的商品成本構成,但運費似乎佔商品成本的很大一部分,如果運費真的降到了那個程度,那它的影響就比關稅的影響要大得多。因此,我們預計 2026 年的毛利率前景相當不錯。你是怎麼看待這個問題的?
Martin Roper - Chief Executive Officer, Director
Martin Roper - Chief Executive Officer, Director
So one way to think about that is we've indicated that the tariffs apply to 60% of our global cost structure. If you apply 23% to that, you get -- come out at like 13% of our revenue is tariffs. That's a huge number, right? And the last time ocean freight spiked, which was '22, really spiked. We talked about a total transportation impact of 65 million which included domestic transportation, and we said two-thirds of it was ocean.
所以,我們可以這樣理解:我們已經證明,關稅適用於我們全球成本結構的 60%。如果以 23% 的比例計算,那麼關稅就占我們收入的 13% 左右。那可真是個巨大的數字,對吧?上一次海運價格飆升是在 2022 年,而且是大幅飆升。我們討論了交通運輸總影響為 6,500 萬美元,其中包括國內交通運輸,我們說其中三分之二是海運。
So the ocean freight -- you can extrapolate an ocean freight number from that 65 million. And you can get back into -- that was when rates were 10,000, 12,000, 14,000, right? So ocean freight is an important part of our cost structure, but I would caution you not to overestimate it. And to use those data points that we've provided, and I'm going to say -- Corey, did we provide a percentage of transportation costs in one of our investor's presentation?
所以海運費用——你可以從這 6500 萬推斷出海運費的數字。你可以重新回到——那時候利率是 10,000、12,000、14,000,對吧?因此,海運是我們成本結構的重要組成部分,但我提醒您不要高估它。為了利用我們提供的這些數據點,我想問一下——科里,我們在一次投資者演示中是否提供了運輸成本的百分比?
Corey Baker - Chief Financial Officer
Corey Baker - Chief Financial Officer
Yeah. A few times through the years we have in the range of a third, but it varies up and down. (multiple speakers)
是的。這些年來,有好幾次我們都達到了三分之一的水平,但這個數字上下波動。(多位發言者)
And we haven't quantified that tariffs obviously change that equation.
而且我們還沒有量化關稅顯然會改變這個局面。
Martin Roper - Chief Executive Officer, Director
Martin Roper - Chief Executive Officer, Director
Yeah, so --
是的,所以--
Jon Andersen - Analyst
Jon Andersen - Analyst
But is it fair --
但這公平嗎?--
Martin Roper - Chief Executive Officer, Director
Martin Roper - Chief Executive Officer, Director
Mike said earlier that ocean freight is an important opportunity for mitigation. Obviously, we're not actually doing anything, we're benefiting from market changes. So it's a benefit from market change that can be an offset. But the tariff impact if it were to stay, is pretty significant.
麥克稍早表示,海運是緩解氣候變遷的重要契機。顯然,我們實際上什麼都沒做,我們只是從市場變化中獲益。所以,這是市場變化帶來的好處,可以起到抵銷作用。但如果這項政策持續實施,關稅的影響將相當顯著。
You mentioned what's going on with ocean freight. If you look back a year on the indexes, the indexes were in the low 3,000s, and they're currently sort of -- I'm looking at the global index -- it's currently in the low 2,000s. So it's down 33%, but it went up last year and it had a couple of peaks that cost us, right. So yes, current ocean rates are lower than they've been for at least a year, but the change is perhaps not as big as the 50% as you were talking about, like it's not down 50% versus a year ago.
你提到了海運業的現況。如果回顧一年前的指數,當時指數在 3000 點左右,而目前——我指的是全球指數——目前在 2000 點左右。所以它下降了 33%,但去年它上漲了,而且出現了幾次峰值,讓我們損失慘重,對吧。所以,是的,目前的海運價格比至少一年來都要低,但變化幅度可能沒有你所說的 50% 那麼大,例如與一年前相比並沒有下降 50%。
Jon Andersen - Analyst
Jon Andersen - Analyst
And what -- I think I have in my notes that ocean -- well, freight in aggregate in in COGS is 30%, 35%. Is that -- with the balance being finished goods, is that a reasonable way to think about it?
而──我想我的筆記裡寫著,海運──嗯,總運費佔銷貨成本的 30%、35%。也就是說,如果剩餘部分是成品,這種思考方式是否合理?
Corey Baker - Chief Financial Officer
Corey Baker - Chief Financial Officer
I believe that's number of transportation and logistics. So it's warehousing, drainage, ocean freight, internal transportation, distribution, et cetera. So ocean freight is a subset of that.
我認為那是運輸和物流方面的數字。所以它包括倉儲、排水、海運、國內運輸、配送等等。所以海運是其中的一個子集。
Jon Andersen - Analyst
Jon Andersen - Analyst
Okay. A component of that third of COGS or so. Okay, the other question I had was just on the guidance. I haven't -- I guess the guidance implies 4Q sales of around $105 million, which, looking at what you did in Q3, $182 million, that's like a 42%, 43% sequential decline in in sales from Q3 to Q4. We haven't seen anywhere near that kind of a seasonality or change in the past.
好的。約佔銷售成本的三分之一。好的,我的另一個問題是關於指導方面的。我還沒有——我猜想,該指引意味著第四季度銷售額約為 1.05 億美元,考慮到你們第三季度的業績,1.82 億美元,這意味著第四季度銷售額比第三季度下降了 42% 到 43%。我們過去從未見過如此明顯的季節性變化。
I know there's a little bit of seasonality, but again, a 45% decline is big. Any -- I just want to make sure I understand what's causing that.
我知道這其中存在一些季節性因素,但話說回來,45% 的降幅確實很大。任何——我只是想確保我明白是什麼原因造成的。
Corey Baker - Chief Financial Officer
Corey Baker - Chief Financial Officer
John -- I might -- I don't see those levels of declines year on year, but maybe we're --
約翰——我或許——我沒看到每年都有如此大幅度的下降,但也許我們…--
Jon Andersen - Analyst
Jon Andersen - Analyst
No, sequentially.
不,是按順序。
Martin Roper - Chief Executive Officer, Director
Martin Roper - Chief Executive Officer, Director
So Q3 was very big. We benefited from the major promotion that we skipped last year, right?
所以第三季業績非常大。我們去年錯過了大型促銷活動,現在我們從中受益了,對吧?
Corey Baker - Chief Financial Officer
Corey Baker - Chief Financial Officer
(inaudible)
(聽不清楚)
Martin Roper - Chief Executive Officer, Director
Martin Roper - Chief Executive Officer, Director
So I would just -- obviously, there's lots of moving pieces here, but on branded, maybe you look at the decline in '23 which would have been a comparable year on a promotional side. And then obviously, we have the private label decline that we preferred to you to look at in Q2 rather than the Q3 number. So it's tough modeling Q4 for us, and we're providing the best view that we can.
所以,我只想說——顯然,這裡有很多變數,但就品牌而言,也許你可以看看 2023 年的下滑,那一年在促銷方面與 2023 年的情況類似。顯然,我們還有自有品牌銷售下滑的情況,我們更希望你們專注在第二季的數據,而不是第三季的數據。因此,對我們來說,預測第四季業績非常困難,我們正在盡力提供最佳預測。
And again, we have some uncertainty on exactly how the private label falls through the end of the year and into next year. So it's just -- that's one of the reasons for maintaining the ranges.
此外,我們目前還無法確定自有品牌在今年年底以及明年將如何發展。所以,這就是──維持這些範圍的原因之一。
Jon Andersen - Analyst
Jon Andersen - Analyst
Makes sense. Okay. Thanks, guys.
有道理。好的。謝謝各位。
Corey Baker - Chief Financial Officer
Corey Baker - Chief Financial Officer
Jon, was that feels like a -- that feels like maybe the (inaudible) are below the guidance range, is that --
喬恩,感覺好像──感覺好像(聽不清楚)低於指導範圍了,是這樣嗎?--
So we could follow up.
這樣我們就可以跟進。
Operator
Operator
Michael Lavery, Piper Sandler.
麥可·拉弗里,派珀·桑德勒。
Michael Lavery - Analyst
Michael Lavery - Analyst
Just wanted to touch on capital allocation. You mentioned now your cash balance over $200 million. I know in almost the same breath you point out the share buyback authorization though it's a small piece of that even if, of course, you could always reauthorize more, but what's the expectations for use of cash? I know you always had M&A on your kind of to-do list, but it hasn't been a big factor ostensibly because there hasn't been something interesting or at the right price, but how do we think about what the cash is meant to go for?
我想簡單談談資本配置的問題。您剛才提到您的現金餘額超過2億美元。我知道你幾乎同時提到了股票回購授權,儘管這只是其中的一小部分,當然,你總是可以重新授權更多,但是對現金的使用有何預期呢?我知道你一直把併購列入了待辦事項清單,但它並沒有成為一個重要因素,表面上是因為沒有遇到感興趣的目標或價格合適的目標,但是我們該如何考慮這筆資金應該用於什麼呢?
Martin Roper - Chief Executive Officer, Director
Martin Roper - Chief Executive Officer, Director
So I think our priorities haven't really changed, and the first one is the growth of the core business. I would say that with the growth we're seeing and our planning for next year, we'll probably be building inventory as we finish this year into next year. And obviously, we're a pretty inventory intensive business given so much of it sits on the water, and so I would just draw your attention to that, while also recognizing that $200 million is a very healthy cash balance for a company of our size.
所以我認為我們的優先事項並沒有真正改變,首要任務仍然是核心業務的成長。我認為,根據我們目前看到的成長動能以及我們對明年的規劃,我們可能會在今年年底到明年年初這段時間增加庫存。顯然,由於我們的大部分庫存都位於水面上,所以我們的業務庫存非常密集,因此我想提請大家注意這一點,同時也要認識到,對於我們這樣規模的公司來說,2 億美元的現金餘額是非常健康的。
So our next sort of priority is innovation and supporting our innovation efforts. The third priority is M&A for something that will deliver value to our shareholders. And I think we've talked about M&A a lot in the three or four years we've been public and obviously haven't done anything. So we're prudent and we're not looking to do M&A for M&A's sake. That's certainly not part of our mission statement.
因此,我們下一個優先事項是創新以及支持我們的創新工作。第三項優先事項是進行併購,以期為股東創造價值。我認為,在我們上市的這三、四年裡,我們一直在談論併購,但顯然我們什麼都沒做。所以我們很謹慎,不會為了併購而併購。這絕對不屬於我們的使命宣言。
And then as we look at what's going on in all those three areas: growth, innovation, and M&A; if we believe we have access cash, then our intentions would be to apply it to share buyback at stock prices that we think are fair for our long-term shareholders. So that's how we think about it, and I don't think anything has really changed, and certainly as the cash builds, it becomes more of a conversation, but I don't expect us to change our approach to it.
然後,當我們審視成長、創新和併購這三個領域的情況時;如果我們認為我們有足夠的現金,那麼我們的意圖就是將其用於股票回購,並以我們認為對長期股東公平的股價進行回購。這就是我們的想法,我認為情況並沒有真正改變,當然,隨著現金的積累,這會成為一個更大的討論話題,但我預計我們不會改變我們對此的態度。
Michael Lavery - Analyst
Michael Lavery - Analyst
Okay. Thanks. And just on Teats, a follow up there. It seems like it would be a pretty nicely incremental part of the portfolio, is that a fair characterization? And even if so, do you find it can be sort of a gateway to the coconut water part of the portfolio too, or are you seeing any interplay there that it might be attracting new users who then also switch to the coconut water side of the business?
好的。謝謝。還有關於Teats的後續報導。它似乎會成為投資組合中相當不錯的增量部分,這樣的描述是否恰當?即使如此,您是否認為它也可以成為椰子水產品組合的某種入口?或者您看到兩者之間存在某種相互作用,即它可能會吸引新用戶,然後這些新用戶也會轉向椰子水業務?
Michael Kirban - Executive Chairman of the Board, Co-Founder
Michael Kirban - Executive Chairman of the Board, Co-Founder
Yeah. I mean, we're seeing a lot of consumers coming into the brand through Treats, which is really nice to see. So exactly what you mentioned, they're coming into the family. And then kind of like what we've seen over the years with our pineapple flavor and our extra coconut flavor, those are kind of the entries for the category and then the hope is that they stay within brand. And you see a lot of people then move to the original, pure coconut water, the blue one.
是的。我的意思是,我們看到很多消費者透過 Treats 了解並喜愛這個品牌,這真的很令人欣慰。正如你所說,他們將成為我們家庭的一員。就像我們這些年來看到的鳳梨味和椰子味一樣,這些算是該類別的參賽產品,希望它們能保持品牌特色。然後你會看到很多人轉而選擇原味、純正的椰子水,也就是藍色的那種。
So Treats, it's early, but we aren't seeing cannibalization. We are seeing a lot of new consumers coming into the brand through Treats. So that is the idea. Hopefully they stay with coconut water and drink it for different occasions in different flavors and formats.
所以,Treats,現在下結論還為時過早,但我們還沒有看到同類相食的現象。我們看到很多新消費者透過 Treats 品牌進入這個市場。這就是我的想法。希望他們能繼續喝椰子水,並在不同的場合以不同的口味和形式飲用。
Martin Roper - Chief Executive Officer, Director
Martin Roper - Chief Executive Officer, Director
And just a couple of comments on how Treats gets reported. On a shipment basis, it's reported in other, so the coconut water reporting on a shipment basis does not include Treats, right? And it's indicative again of the health of the category.
關於 Treats 的舉報機制,我還有幾點要補充說明。以出貨量計算,椰子水會在「其他」類別中報告,因此以出貨量計算的椰子水報告不包括零食,對嗎?這再次顯示了該品類的健康狀況。
On a Nielsen-Circana basis, Treats gets reported sort of not necessarily in coconut water, but it might get reported in sort of milk-based products because it's a coconut milk-based products. And so, I would just caution you to work out if it is being reported or not. In our Circana data, it's not in the coconut water definition that we buy. And it was order of magnitude. I'm looking -- Corey would have added an incremental 4% points to our Circana growth rates.
根據尼爾森-西卡納的數據,Treats 的銷售報告不一定是在椰子水中,但可能會被歸類為牛奶製品,因為它是以椰奶為基礎的產品。因此,我提醒你們,務必弄清楚這件事是否已被報道。根據我們的 Circana 數據,它不在我們購買的椰子水的定義範圍內。而且是數量級上的差異。我正在考慮——Corey 將會使我們的 Circana 成長率增加 4 個百分點。
That indeed we report in our investor deck because our investor deck reports coconut water growth rates that don't include Treats.
我們確實在投資者報告中報告了這一點,因為我們的投資者報告報告的椰子水增長率不包括 Treats。
Michael Lavery - Analyst
Michael Lavery - Analyst
Got it. Yeah, thank you.
知道了。是啊,謝謝。
Operator
Operator
Eric Serotta, Morgan Stanley.
艾瑞克‧塞羅塔,摩根士丹利。
Eric Serotta - Analyst
Eric Serotta - Analyst
First question would be in terms of pricing. I know you said that you know you're waiting on further pricing to see what the competitive environment looks like. What are you seeing in terms of have competitors moved on pricing in -- as we sit here today at the end of October. You guys moved early August. I know that some competitors were on a different kind of pricing cadence over the past few years.
首先要問的問題是價格方面。我知道你說過,你正在等待進一步的價格信息,以了解競爭環境的情況。截至十月底,您認為競爭對手在定價上有哪些變化?你們八月初就搬家了。我知道在過去幾年裡,一些競爭對手採取了不同的定價策略。
So what are you seeing in terms of pricing from your competitors today? I know you can't speculate about the future there. And then just to follow up briefly on Treats, what does the repeat purchase look like on that and what -- it looks like it was nicely incremental to this year. Do you see it building next year or is that, in some ways, going to be a tougher comparison with the launch this year?
那麼,您目前從競爭對手那裡了解到的價格策略是什麼?我知道你不能對那裡的未來進行推測。然後,簡單跟進 Treats 的情況,它的重複購買情況如何?看起來今年的成長相當不錯。你認為明年會發展壯大嗎?還是說,從某種程度上來說,與今年的發布相比,明年的發展會更加艱難?
Corey Baker - Chief Financial Officer
Corey Baker - Chief Financial Officer
Let me take the pricing, Eric. And then Martin can talk to the Treats performance. But I would say, we're pricing and we tend to use Circana as a measure of what we're seeing in the market. We're seeing a few different things. Some competitors took pricing early and quite a bit and have maintained at that level and not moved incrementally in response to tariffs.
艾瑞克,讓我來負責定價。然後馬丁可以談談 Treats 的表演。但我想說的是,當我們進行定價時,往往會以 Circana 作為衡量市場行情的指標。我們看到了一些不同的情況。有些競爭對手很早就採取了價格策略,而且採取了相當大的降價措施,並一直保持在這個水平,並沒有因為關稅而逐步調整價格。
Others have moved one or two times, and we're seeing some moves in some private label more recently, up on a second tariff move, and then others have not moved at all. So there seems to be a differing strategies across the market. Obviously, we lead the market by a wide margin, and we've moved so we'll see continue to monitor closely on additional moves.
有些人的價格變動了一兩次,我們最近看到一些自有品牌的價格隨著第二次關稅調整而上漲,而有些人的價格則根本沒有變動。所以市場上似乎有不同的策略。顯然,我們以較大優勢領先市場,而且我們已經採取了行動,所以我們將繼續密切關注後續動向。
Michael Kirban - Executive Chairman of the Board, Co-Founder
Michael Kirban - Executive Chairman of the Board, Co-Founder
Yeah. I think we're also monitoring the tariffs -- what tariffs actually could end up being. I think there's still so many moving parts with -- between Brazil and trade deals getting done. I think there's a lot of questions to be answered.
是的。我認為我們也在密切關注關稅——最終的關稅究竟會是多少。我認為巴西與貿易協定的達成之間仍然存在著許多變數。我認為有很多問題需要解答。
Corey Baker - Chief Financial Officer
Corey Baker - Chief Financial Officer
I think that's quite obvious.
我覺得很明顯。
Martin Roper - Chief Executive Officer, Director
Martin Roper - Chief Executive Officer, Director
Yeah. And because of the timing of the August tariffs, I'm not sure we've seen anyone moving relative to that, but obviously, we would expect people to have to move particularly on the private label side. So that's a good reason to sort of wait. With regards to Treats, I think Mike said it's providing a different gateway for consumers to come into the brand, that's good.
是的。由於 8 月關稅生效的時間,我不確定我們是否看到有人因此而採取行動,但顯然,我們預計人們,特別是自有品牌方面,將不得不採取行動。所以,這是一個等待的好理由。關於 Treats,我想 Mike 說過它為消費者提供了一個不同的品牌入門途徑,這很好。
I would say we're seeing acceptable repeat rates, if not, positive repeat rates, and our challenge is to drive more trials, so more visibility of the brand, and so that probably requires a little bit more investment, et cetera. And so that's what we're planning for next year. I think you asked about next year, obviously, it's very difficult to sort of project next year. I -- we do think that we will get some Treats distribution gains.
我認為我們看到的複購率是可以接受的,甚至可以說是積極的,我們面臨的挑戰是推動更多試用,從而提高品牌知名度,這可能需要更多的投資等等。所以這就是我們明年的計劃。我想你問的是明年,顯然,預測明年是非常困難的。我們確實認為我們會在 Treats 的分銷方面取得一些進展。
While we did very well on Treats this year, we didn't, for instance, get it into Walmart, and I think our expectation is that we would get it into Walmart in the resets and some other places as well on sets next year, so I think we still have another year of growth for Treats just based on the launch before getting distribution growth -- before sort of -- and then obviously, we are trying to drive adoption on top of that, but it certainly should be a positive next year.
雖然我們今年在 Treats 產品上取得了非常好的成績,但例如,我們還沒有將其打入沃爾瑪。我認為我們預計明年會在沃爾瑪的貨架重置以及其他一些地方的貨架上擺放它。因此,我認為僅憑產品上市,在分銷管道成長之前,Treats 產品還有一年的成長空間——某種程度上來說是這樣——當然,我們還要在此基礎上努力推動產品的普及,但明年肯定會是一個積極的信號。
Eric Serotta - Analyst
Eric Serotta - Analyst
Thanks so much.
非常感謝。
Operator
Operator
Jim Salera, Stephens.
吉姆·薩萊拉,史蒂芬斯。
Jim Salera - Equity Analyst
Jim Salera - Equity Analyst
I wanted to ask -- I first wanted to ask on just the kind of composition of the growth this year. If I look at the slide deck looks like multipacks have been kind of the biggest incremental driver which I would kind of read as a proxy for the increased purchase with existing households. Please correct me if you think that that's a wrong read there.
我想問——我首先想問的是今年成長的組成情況。如果我看一下投影片,就會發現多件裝似乎是最大的增量驅動因素,我認為這可以看作是現有家庭購買量增加的體現。如果您認為我的解讀有誤,請指正。
But with the inclusion and modern hydration upcoming, do you view that as an opportunity to really introduce the brand to new households if it's more visible on shelf or is that a way to maybe pick up some laps opportunity with people that were buying it, but then they get shuffled around in the store and they kind of lose track of it and don't fall in love with it.
但隨著產品成分的增加和現代補水技術的出現,您是否認為這是一個將品牌真正介紹給新家庭的機會,如果它在貨架上更加顯眼的話?或者這只是一個機會,可以吸引那些曾經購買過該產品,但後來在商店裡被擺放得亂七八糟,以至於忘記了它,最終沒有愛上它的人?
Martin Roper - Chief Executive Officer, Director
Martin Roper - Chief Executive Officer, Director
So we view the multipack strategy as a way of increasing value to our customer with -- while also increasing velocity and potentially putting more product in their pantries, right, which potentially increases their own consumption. And I think that's what we're seeing.
因此,我們認為多包裝策略可以增加客戶的價值,同時提高銷售速度,並有可能將更多產品放入客戶的食品櫃中,從而有可能增加他們自身的消費量。我認為這就是我們所看到的。
Some of the multipack strength is also a little bit driven by multipacks are much more predominant in club type environments. And so if club is strong as a channel, which it obviously is in the current economic environment, you are seeing some growth from multipacks from that point, [side].
多件裝產品銷售成長的部分原因也是因為多件裝產品在俱樂部等環境中較為普遍。因此,如果俱樂部通路表現強勁(在當前的經濟環境下,俱樂部通路顯然很強勁),那麼你就會看到多件裝產品從中受益,實現成長。[邊]。
As it relates to how is that all filling into total growth, we still see our growth as a nice balance of new households and increasing our velocity per household. Our rough approximation is half of the growth is coming from new households, and half is coming from increased consumption by households. And so that's what we think is currently going on. Obviously, numbers in this area are available but messy.
至於這一切如何轉化為整體成長,我們仍然認為我們的成長是在新增家庭數量和提高每戶家庭消費速度之間取得良好平衡的結果。我們粗略估計,一半的成長來自新增家庭,一半的成長來自家庭消費的增加。所以,這就是我們認為目前正在發生的事情。顯然,這方面的數據是有的,但是很混亂。
Jim Salera - Equity Analyst
Jim Salera - Equity Analyst
Great. And then I appreciate all the color around COGS and kind of moving pieces next year and you guys still have some stuff that you want to look at before you get '26 guidance. But if I just take the 4Q exit rate on tariffs coupled with kind of running forward the ocean freight rate through into '26 and blend that together, it would imply FY26 gross margins are kind of flat to down modestly.
偉大的。然後,我很欣賞關於 COGS 的所有細節,以及明年各種變動因素,你們在獲得 2026 年業績指引之前還有一些事情需要關注。但如果我只採用第四季度關稅退出率,再加上將海運費率推算到 2026 年並將它們結合起來,那就意味著 2026 財年的毛利率將基本持平或略有下降。
Is that a fair way to characterize it just as we're thinking about, if I can appreciate obviously there's plenty moving piece on tariffs, but assuming no changes there, the gross margins will be kind of down modestly next year.
如果按照我們目前的想法來描述,這是否公平?當然,關稅方面有很多變數,但假設沒有變化,明年的毛利率將會略有下降。
Corey Baker - Chief Financial Officer
Corey Baker - Chief Financial Officer
That sounds like '26 guidance, Jim. It was a good try.
吉姆,聽起來像是2026年的指導。這是一次不錯的嘗試。
Martin Roper - Chief Executive Officer, Director
Martin Roper - Chief Executive Officer, Director
Jim, I would just say we think we're covered by very smart analysts with very smart support teams.
吉姆,我只想說,我們認為我們擁有非常優秀的分析師和非常優秀的後勤支援團隊。
Jim Salera - Equity Analyst
Jim Salera - Equity Analyst
Okay.
好的。
Operator
Operator
(Operator Instructions) Eric Des Lauriers, Craig Hallum Capital Group.
(操作說明)Eric Des Lauriers,Craig Hallum Capital Group。
Eric Des Lauriers - Senior Research Analyst
Eric Des Lauriers - Senior Research Analyst
Thank you for taking my questions and congrats on a really impressive quarter. My question is on tariffs. So you've outlined several levers you can pull to offset the impact of tariffs, but I'm wondering sort of what levers you have to pull or what's in your power to do in terms of lobbying for coconut water to be excluded from tariffs like other coconut products are.
感謝您回答我的問題,並祝賀您度過了一個非常出色的季度。我的問題是關於關稅的。您已經列出了幾種可以用來抵消關稅影響的手段,但我很想知道,在遊說方面,您有哪些手段或能力可以爭取讓椰子水像其他椰子產品一樣免徵關稅。
Do you have any levers to pull here? Is there anything from a lobbying or even import classification perspective that you're able to do?
你有什麼辦法可以扭轉局面嗎?從遊說或進口商品分類的角度來看,您能做些什麼嗎?
Michael Kirban - Executive Chairman of the Board, Co-Founder
Michael Kirban - Executive Chairman of the Board, Co-Founder
Yeah, that's what we're working on. I've been spending time in DC and doing exactly that and working from both the angle of the production -- producing countries in their negotiations and discussions and also on the US administration side. So we're doing -- we're making every effort that we can.
是的,我們正在努力做這件事。我一直在華盛頓特區待著,做著同樣的事情,既從製作方的角度——參與製作國之間的談判和討論——也從美國政府的角度進行工作。所以我們正在盡一切努力。
Eric Des Lauriers - Senior Research Analyst
Eric Des Lauriers - Senior Research Analyst
That's great. And then just a question on the marketing spend outlook. Just overall, should we expect a general increase in marketing spend as a percentage of sales going forward, given balance sheet strength, investments in Treats, consumer education efforts? Should we expect a general increase as a percentage of sales or do we have enough kind of robust top-line growth that sort of this current level of marketing expenses as a percentage of sales is a good guide going forward?
那太棒了。最後,還有一個關於行銷支出前景的問題。整體而言,考慮到資產負債表的穩健性、對 Treats 的投資以及消費者教育工作,我們是否應該預期未來行銷支出佔銷售額的比例會普遍上升?我們應該預期行銷費用佔銷售額的百分比會普遍成長嗎?還是說,我們已經擁有足夠強勁的營收成長,以至於目前的行銷費用佔銷售額的百分比可以作為未來發展的良好參考指標?
Corey Baker - Chief Financial Officer
Corey Baker - Chief Financial Officer
Yeah, if we think about the long term and there's variability year to year, but broadly, we would expect sales and marketing expenses to track net sales or branded net sales over the long term.
是的,從長遠來看,雖然每年都會有波動,但總體而言,我們預計銷售和行銷費用從長遠來看會與淨銷售額或品牌淨銷售額保持一致。
Eric Des Lauriers - Senior Research Analyst
Eric Des Lauriers - Senior Research Analyst
All right. That's helpful. Thanks for taking my questions and congrats again.
好的。那很有幫助。感謝您回答我的問題,再次恭喜您。
Operator
Operator
Gerald Pascarelli, Needham and Company.
Gerald Pascarelli,Needham and Company。
Gerald Pascarelli - Equity Analyst
Gerald Pascarelli - Equity Analyst
I just had a -- going back to tariffs, if they remain in place as is, can you just speak about how long the process is, should you choose to reroute shipments from Brazil to international markets. And then I guess, based on your current sourcing, is it possible to reroute all shipments from Brazil to international markets or is that just not practical based on your supply chain. I guess any color there would be helpful.
我剛剛想問一下——回到關稅問題,如果關稅保持不變,您能否談談如果您選擇將貨物從巴西運往國際市場,這個過程需要多長時間?那麼,根據您目前的採購情況,是否有可能將所有從巴西發送到國際市場的貨物重新安排路線,或者根據您的供應鏈情況,這樣做是否不切實際?我想任何顏色都會有幫助。
Martin Roper - Chief Executive Officer, Director
Martin Roper - Chief Executive Officer, Director
Yeah. So to reroute, we need to develop packaging that the factory and the new market it's going to be servicing. And we also need to get any validation for that factory in that country or with that retailer that are required. So those processes might take three months, could take nine. So it's a moving target.
是的。因此,為了重新規劃路線,我們需要開發適合工廠及其將要服務的新市場的包裝。我們還需要獲得該國工廠或零售商所需的任何驗證。所以這些流程可能要三個月,也可能要九個月。所以這是一個不斷變化的目標。
We started working on those things, back in August, September, but equally, the urgency I'm working on --and while it's urgent, we're also sensitive that once we start buying that materials, if Brazil tariffs go away, then we've got this packaging in the wrong location for a non-optimized supply chain because Brazil is optimized to supply to the US.
我們從八九月就開始著手處理這些事情了,但同樣重要的是,我正在處理的緊迫性——雖然這件事很緊迫,但我們也意識到,一旦我們開始購買這些材料,如果巴西的關稅取消了,那麼我們的包裝就放在了不合適的地方,因為巴西的供應鏈是為美國供應而優化的,所以供應鏈沒有得到優化。
So onto your question is we're working on it. We're pulling triggers that we think are appropriate given the uncertainty around the 50% tariffs from Brazil, and if the 50% were to stay in place, our hope would be to have a weighted average tariff rate down from 23% to closer to 20% by the end of the year. We may still choose to source some items from Brazil for certain markets, and/or customers, and/or for strategic reasons, because it's got a much shorter lead time in servicing the East Coast of the US.
所以,關於你的問題,我們正在努力。鑑於巴西 50% 關稅政策的不確定性,我們正在採取我們認為合適的措施。如果 50% 的關稅政策繼續實施,我們希望到年底能將加權平均關稅率從 23% 降至接近 20%。我們可能仍然會選擇從巴西採購一些商品,以滿足某些市場和/或客戶的需求,和/或出於戰略原因,因為巴西向美國東海岸供貨的交貨週期要短得多。
So we may not fully exit Brazil as it relates to US demand, but that's where we would think we could get to by the end of the year -- end of next year.
因此,就美國需求而言,我們可能無法完全退出巴西市場,但我們認為到今年年底——或明年年底——我們可以實現這一目標。
Gerald Pascarelli - Equity Analyst
Gerald Pascarelli - Equity Analyst
That's very helpful. Thank you. And then I guess just going back to the prior question. In your trade discussions, are you hearing anything that that maybe makes you more optimistic on the potential for a lower negotiated rate from the 50%, specifically based on the significant inflation that the US is seeing from Brazil coffee? Is that playing a factor or do you think that will play a factor as we look out over the near term here?
那很有幫助。謝謝。然後,我想還是回到之前的問題。在你們的交易談判中,有沒有聽到什麼消息,讓你們對談判達成低於 50% 的匯率更有信心?特別是考慮到美國目前面臨的巴西咖啡價格大幅上漲的問題?這是否會成為一個影響因素?或者您認為在短期內,這會成為一個影響因素嗎?
Michael Kirban - Executive Chairman of the Board, Co-Founder
Michael Kirban - Executive Chairman of the Board, Co-Founder
Yeah. I think it's also -- it's things that we're hearing in meetings, but we're also hearing publicly discussed from both sides. And they're looking to make progress in the very near term. So we're hopeful that something happens in the near term, specifically as it relates -- most specifically as it relates to this 40% reciprocal tariff hopefully being relieved, but we will see how that plays out.
是的。我認為,這不僅是我們在會議上聽到的內容,也是雙方在公開場合討論的內容。他們希望在短期內取得進展。所以我們希望近期內能有所進展,特別是與此相關的——最具體而言,就是希望能夠取消這 40% 的互惠關稅,但我們拭目以待。
Gerald Pascarelli - Equity Analyst
Gerald Pascarelli - Equity Analyst
Got it. Thank you very much.
知道了。非常感謝。
Operator
Operator
Thanks. Thank you. This concludes the question-and-answer session. I would now like to turn it back to Martin Roper for closing remarks.
謝謝。謝謝。問答環節到此結束。現在我謹將發言權交還給馬丁·羅珀,請他作總結發言。
Martin Roper - Chief Executive Officer, Director
Martin Roper - Chief Executive Officer, Director
Thank you, everyone, for joining the call today, and we very much appreciate your interest in the Vita Coco Company, and we look forward to talking to you again in 2026. Cheers.
感謝各位今天參加電話會議,我們非常感謝大家對維他可可公司的關注,期待在 2026 年再次與您交流。乾杯。
Operator
Operator
Thank you. This concludes today's conference call. Thank you for participating. You may now disconnect.
謝謝。今天的電話會議到此結束。感謝您的參與。您現在可以斷開連線了。