Cohen & Steers Inc (CNS) 2023 Q1 法說會逐字稿

Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for standing by. Welcome to the Cohen & Steers First Quarter 2023 Earnings Conference Call. (Operator Instructions) As a reminder, this conference is being recorded, Thursday, April 20, 2023. I would now like to turn the conference over to Brian Heller, Senior Vice President and Corporate Counsel of Cohen & Steers. Please go ahead.

女士們，先生們，謝謝你們的支持。歡迎來到 Cohen & Steers 2023 年第一季度收益電話會議。 （操作員說明）提醒一下，本次會議將於 2023 年 4 月 20 日星期四進行錄製。我現在想將會議轉交給 Cohen & Steers 高級副總裁兼公司法律顧問 Brian Heller。請繼續。

Thank you, and welcome to the Cohen & Steers First Quarter 2023 Earnings Conference Call. Joining me are our Chief Executive Officer, Joe Harvey; our Chief Financial Officer, Matt Stadler; and our Chief Investment Officer, John Cheigh.

謝謝，歡迎來到 Cohen & Steers 2023 年第一季度收益電話會議。加入我的是我們的首席執行官 Joe Harvey；我們的首席財務官 Matt Stadler；以及我們的首席投資官 John Cheigh。

I want to remind you that some of our comments and answers to your questions may include forward-looking statements. We believe these statements are reasonable based on information currently available to us but actual outcomes could differ materially due to a number of factors, including those described in our accompanying first quarter earnings release and presentation, our most recent annual report on Form 10-K and our other SEC filings. We assume no duty to update any forward-looking statement.

我想提醒您，我們對您問題的一些評論和回答可能包含前瞻性陳述。我們認為，根據我們目前可獲得的信息，這些陳述是合理的，但實際結果可能因多種因素而存在重大差異，包括我們隨附的第一季度收益發布和演示文稿、我們關於 10-K 表格的最新年度報告和我們的其他 SEC 文件。我們不承擔更新任何前瞻性聲明的義務。

Further, none of our statements constitute an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy the securities of any fund or other investment vehicle. Our presentation also contains non-GAAP financial measures referred to as adjusted financial measures that we believe are meaningful in evaluating our performance. These non-GAAP financial measures should be read in conjunction with our GAAP results. A reconciliation of these non-GAAP financial measures is included in the earnings release and presentation to the extent reasonably available.

此外，我們的任何聲明均不構成出售要約或購買任何基金或其他投資工具證券的要約邀請。我們的演示文稿還包含非 GAAP 財務措施，稱為調整後的財務措施，我們認為這些措施對評估我們的業績具有重要意義。這些非 GAAP 財務指標應與我們的 GAAP 結果一起閱讀。在合理可用的範圍內，這些非 GAAP 財務措施的對賬包含在收益發布和報告中。

The earnings release and presentation as well as links to our SEC filings are available in the Investor Relations section of our website at www.cohenandsteers.com. With that, I'll turn the call over to Matt.

我們網站 www.cohenandsteers.com 的“投資者關係”部分提供了收益發布和演示文稿以及我們向美國證券交易委員會提交的文件的鏈接。有了這個，我會把電話轉給馬特。

Thank you, Brian, and good morning. Consistent with previous quarters, my remarks this morning will focus on our as adjusted results. Note that effective January 1, such results included interest and dividends earned on our corporate seed investments.

謝謝你，布賴恩，早上好。與前幾個季度一樣，我今天上午的發言將重點關注我們調整後的結果。請注意，自 1 月 1 日起，此類結果包括我們公司種子投資賺取的利息和股息。

A reconciliation of GAAP to as-adjusted results can be found on Pages 13 through 15 of the earnings release and on Slides 16 through 20 of the earnings presentation.

可以在收益發布的第 13 至 15 頁和收益演示的幻燈片 16 至 20 上找到 GAAP 與調整後結果的對賬。

Yesterday, we reported earnings of $0.76 per share compared with $1.04 in the prior year's quarter and $0.79 sequentially. Revenue was $126.3 million in the quarter compared with $154.3 million in the prior year's quarter and $125.5 million sequentially. The increase in revenue from the fourth quarter was primarily due to higher average assets under management across all three types of investment vehicles, partially offset by two fewer days in the quarter.

昨天，我們報告每股收益為 0.76 美元，而去年同期為 1.04 美元，環比為 0.79 美元。本季度收入為 1.263 億美元，上年同期為 1.543 億美元，環比為 1.255 億美元。第四季度收入的增長主要是由於所有三種投資工具的平均管理資產增加，部分被本季度減少兩天所抵消。

Our effective fee rate was 57.6 basis points in the first quarter compared with 57.8 basis points in the fourth quarter. Operating income was $48 million in the quarter, compared with $68.9 million in the prior year's quarter and $50.9 million sequentially. And our operating margin decreased to 38% from 40.5% last quarter.

我們第一季度的有效費用率為 57.6 個基點，而第四季度為 57.8 個基點。本季度營業收入為 4800 萬美元，上年同期為 6890 萬美元，環比為 5090 萬美元。我們的營業利潤率從上一季度的 40.5% 下降到 38%。

Expenses increased 4.8% from the fourth quarter, primarily due to higher compensation and benefits and higher G&A. The compensation to revenue ratio for the first quarter was 38.5%, consistent with the guidance provided on our last call. The increase in G&A was primarily due to a full quarter of rent expense for our new corporate headquarters, where the lease commenced on December 1. We expect to occupy our new space by year-end.

費用比第四季度增加 4.8%，主要是由於更高的薪酬和福利以及更高的 G&A。第一季度的薪酬收入比率為 38.5%，與我們上次電話會議提供的指引一致。 G&A 的增加主要是由於我們新公司總部的整整一個季度的租金支出，該總部的租約於 12 月 1 日開始。我們預計將在年底前佔用我們的新空間。

Our effective tax rate was 25.25% for the quarter, slightly lower than the guidance provided on our last call.

我們本季度的有效稅率為 25.25%，略低於我們上次電話會議提供的指引。

Page 15 of the earnings presentation sets forth our cash and cash equivalents, corporate investments in U.S. treasury securities and term liquidity as of March 31 reflected the payment of employee bonuses as well as the firm's customary repurchase of common stock to satisfy withholding taxes due to net outflows of $497 million and distributions of $694 million, partially offset by market appreciation of $671 million.

收益報告的第 15 頁列出了截至 3 月 31 日我們的現金和現金等價物、公司對美國國債的投資和定期流動性，反映了員工獎金的支付以及公司慣常回購普通股以支付因淨額產生的預扣稅4.97 億美元的流出和 6.94 億美元的分配，部分被市場增值 6.71 億美元所抵消。

Joe Harvey will provide an update on our flows and institutional pipeline of awarded unfunded mandates.

喬·哈維 (Joe Harvey) 將提供有關我們授予的未獲資助授權的流程和機構管道的最新信息。

Let me briefly discuss a few items to consider for the second quarter and remainder of the year. First, with respect to compensation and benefits, we are taking a deliberate and measured approach to both new and replacement hires, which is intended to balance talent growth, our opportunities and the environment so that all things being equal, we would expect to maintain a compensation to revenue ratio of 38.5%.

讓我簡要討論一下第二季度和今年剩餘時間需要考慮的幾個項目。首先，在薪酬和福利方面，我們對新員工和替補員工都採取審慎和慎重的方法，旨在平衡人才發展、我們的機會和環境，以便在所有條件相同的情況下，我們希望保持一個薪酬收入比為38.5%。

Next, we expect G&A to increase 12% to 14% from the $52.6 million we recorded in 2022. The majority of which relates to costs associated with our new corporate headquarters and to a lesser extent, certain other strategic infrastructure initiatives, such as establishing a new data center, opening a Singapore office, relocating our London office and upgrading our trading and order management system. Excluding these costs, we would expect G&A to increase 4% to 6%. That said, in light of the environment, we have undertaken a comprehensive review of all of our non-client-related expenses. And finally, we expect that our effective tax rate will remain at 25.25%. Now I'd like to turn it over to our Chief Investment Officer, John Cheigh, who will discuss our investment performance.

接下來，我們預計 G&A 將從我們在 2022 年記錄的 5260 萬美元增加 12% 至 14%。其中大部分與我們新公司總部相關的成本有關，在較小程度上與某些其他戰略基礎設施計劃有關，例如建立新數據中心，開設新加坡辦事處，搬遷我們的倫敦辦事處併升級我們的交易和訂單管理系統。排除這些成本，我們預計 G&A 將增加 4% 至 6%。也就是說，鑑於環境，我們對所有與客戶無關的費用進行了全面審查。最後，我們預計我們的有效稅率將保持在 25.25%。現在我想把它交給我們的首席投資官 John Cheigh，他將討論我們的投資業績。

Thank you, Matt, and good morning. Today, I'd like to first cover our performance scorecard and how our major asset classes performed. Then share our views on two topics: first, the health of both the European and U.S. banking systems and our forward outlook for preferred securities. And second, market conditions for commercial real estate debt, the impact on private CRE values and our investment outlook for REITs.

謝謝你，馬特，早上好。今天，我想首先介紹一下我們的業績記分卡以及我們主要資產類別的表現。然後分享我們對兩個主題的看法：第一，歐洲和美國銀行體系的健康狀況以及我們對優先證券的展望。其次，商業房地產債務的市場狀況、對私人 CRE 價值的影響以及我們對 REITs 的投資前景。

Turning to our performance scorecard. For the quarter, 68% of our AUM outperformed their benchmark. For the last 12 months, 66% of our AUM outperformed versus 74% as of the end of Q4. For the last 3, 5 and 10 years, our performance track record remains extremely strong at 98%, 97% and 100%, respectively. From a competitive perspective, 90% of our open-end fund AUM is rated 4- or 5-star by Morningstar which is down from 98% last quarter.

轉向我們的績效記分卡。本季度，我們 68% 的資產管理規模優於基準。在過去 12 個月中，我們 66% 的 AUM 表現優於第四季度末的 74%。在過去的 3 年、5 年和 10 年中，我們的業績記錄仍然非常強勁，分別達到 98%、97% 和 100%。從競爭的角度來看，我們 90% 的開放式基金 AUM 被晨星評為 4 星或 5 星，低於上一季度的 98%。

In summary, while our performance batting average for the longer term remains nearly perfect over the last 12 months, we have seen a dip below our standards. The majority of our underperforming AUM relates to our preferred security strategies where we were impacted by our regional banking exposure.

總而言之，雖然我們在過去 12 個月中的長期成功率仍然接近完美，但我們已經看到低於我們的標準。我們表現不佳的 AUM 大部分與我們受到區域銀行風險敞口影響的首選安全策略有關。

While disappointed with those short-term results, we and our clients don't manage the quarter-to-quarter results. I want to highlight that this year, the senior PMs of our award-winning preferred team, Bill (inaudible) and (inaudible) [Harris Nicas] are celebrating their 20-year anniversaries at Cohen & Steers. Over those 20 years, we have outperformed in 19 of them.

雖然對這些短期結果感到失望，但我們和我們的客戶並不管理季度結果。我想強調的是，今年，我們屢獲殊榮的首選團隊 Bill（聽不清）和（聽不清）[Harris Nicas] 的高級 PM 正在慶祝他們在 Cohen & Steers 成立 20 週年。在這 20 年中，我們在其中的 19 年中表現出色。

While this quarter was a performance setback, we are extremely confident in the long-term future of the asset class, it's importance in allocations in generating tax-advantaged income and in our team's ability to generate consistent and meaningful outperformance.

雖然本季度業績受挫，但我們對資產類別的長期未來充滿信心，這對產生稅收優惠收入的分配以及我們團隊產生持續和有意義的優異表現的能力非常重要。

For the quarter, risk assets continued their recovery with global equities up 7.4%, the Barclays Global Aggregate up 3%, but notably, commodities down 5.4%. And Equity index performance was heavily dominated by large-cap technology stocks as evidenced by the median S&P 500 stock being up only 1.5%.

本季度，風險資產繼續復甦，全球股市上漲 7.4%，巴克萊全球綜合指數上漲 3%，但值得注意的是，大宗商品下跌 5.4%。股票指數的表現主要由大型科技股主導，標準普爾 500 指數中值僅上漲 1.5% 就證明了這一點。

In contrast to last year, our asset classes generally underperformed headline indices with the U.S. and global REITs up 1.7% and 0.8%, respectively, listed infrastructure up 0.5% and preferred securities down 1%.

與去年相比，我們的資產類別普遍跑輸主要指數，美國和全球房地產投資信託基金分別上漲 1.7% 和 0.8%，上市基礎設施上漲 0.5%，優先證券下跌 1%。

Listed infrastructure following material outperformance in 2022 posted positive returns but lagged equities. Passenger transportation subsectors such as airports and toll roads led the way up 16% and 7%, respectively, with improving passenger volumes and better-than-expected economic activity in Europe. A more industrial economy-sensitive railway and marine port subsectors lagged, so both in part due to idiosyncratic issues.

上市基礎設施在 2022 年表現出色後取得了正回報，但落後於股票。機場和收費公路等客運分行業領漲，分別增長 16% 和 7%，歐洲客運量增加且經濟活動好於預期。對工業經濟更為敏感的鐵路和海港子行業表現滯後，部分原因在於特殊問題。

In the context of persistent, albeit falling inflation and below trends economic growth, we continue to expect infrastructure to perform relatively well. Investor interest in both listed and private infrastructure continues to grow given those attributes. Our two largest asset classes of U.S. REITs and preferred securities were both impacted by volatility in the banking sector and the possible negative feedback loop between the real estate and banks.

在持續下降的通脹和低於趨勢的經濟增長的背景下，我們繼續預計基礎設施將表現相對良好。鑑於這些屬性，投資者對上市和私人基礎設施的興趣持續增長。我們最大的兩個資產類別美國房地產投資信託基金和優先證券都受到銀行業波動以及房地產和銀行之間可能的負反饋循環的影響。

First, let's discuss preferred securities, where approximately 50% of the universe is made up of banks with about half in Europe and half in the U.S.

首先，讓我們討論優先證券，其中大約 50% 的證券由銀行組成，其中大約一半在歐洲，一半在美國。

In our view, the banking system in Europe is well capitalized with good liquidity and with lower duration assets that should benefit as interest rates rise.

我們認為，歐洲的銀行體系資本充足，流動性好，資產期限較短，應會隨著利率上升而受益。

Post-GFC, regulators permanently tightened capital and liquidity requirements without exception, including smaller banks. These moves made the banks safer and more credit-friendly.

全球金融危機後，監管機構無一例外地永久收緊資本和流動性要求，包括小型銀行。這些舉措使銀行更安全，對信貸更友好。

European regulators, unlike the U.S. have been consistently vigilant about interest rate risk. To us, all of this argues for healthy and possibly improving credit picture for European bank preferreds.

與美國不同，歐洲監管機構一直對利率風險保持警惕。對我們而言，所有這些都表明歐洲銀行優先股的信用狀況健康且可能有所改善。

For the U.S., the systemically important banks have strong capital and liquidity. But the U.S. has a very long tail of smaller regional banks, approximately 4,700 and regulators did become more relaxed over the last 5 years. This increased credit risk at the margin. So we expect pockets of weakness within that long tail and have repositioned our portfolio's credit quality.

對美國而言，具有系統重要性的銀行擁有雄厚的資本和流動性。但美國的小型區域性銀行的尾巴很長，大約有 4,700 家，監管機構在過去 5 年確實變得更加寬鬆。這增加了邊際信用風險。因此，我們預計長尾中會出現一些弱點，並重新定位了我們投資組合的信用質量。

As I referenced about Europe, we think it's critical that investors understand that certain shifts can be negative for earnings and common shareholders while being positive for bank preferred investors. This is precisely what we saw for much of the global banking space post GFC.

正如我提到的歐洲，我們認為至關重要的是，投資者要了解某些轉變可能對收益和普通股股東產生負面影響，同時對銀行優先投資者產生積極影響。這正是我們在全球金融危機後的大部分全球銀行業領域所看到的情況。

Like that period, we would expect today more common equity being raised, loan growth slowing to boost liquidity, regulations increasing and common share buybacks being reduced or suspended. These moves are clear positives for U.S. bank preferreds.

與那個時期一樣，我們預計今天會籌集更多普通股，貸款增長放緩以提振流動性，監管增加以及普通股回購減少或暫停。這些舉措對美國銀行優先股來說是明顯的利好。

Cyclically, we also believe interest rates are near their peak and this will support fixed income, including preferreds. So with valuation support, and regulation creating more conservative banks and credit tailwinds, we believe preferreds have reset for a strong new investment cycle.

週期性地，我們還認為利率接近峰值，這將支持固定收益，包括優先股。因此，在估值支持和監管創造更保守的銀行和信貸順風的情況下，我們認為優先股已經為強勁的新投資週期重新設置。

Turning to REITs. Any regular reader of the financial press would have heard the question, "Is CRE debt the next shoe to drop?" REITs will underperform the broader indices for the quarter. That was entirely because of the market reaction to that question, with REITs underperforming by 8% over the two weeks following the SVB events.

轉向房地產投資信託基金。任何經常閱讀金融媒體的讀者都會聽到這樣的問題：“CRE 債務會是下一隻要掉的鞋嗎？”本季度房地產投資信託基金的表現將遜於更廣泛的指數。這完全是因為市場對這個問題的反應，在 SVB 事件發生後的兩週內，房地產投資信託基金的表現不佳 8%。

Recently, we published a research report entitled a commercial real estate debt market, separating fact from fiction. The most important facts to address some common misconceptions included: first, the $4.5 trillion commercial mortgage market is highly fragmented and regional and community banks represent less than 1/3 of the market with the balance comprised of other lenders, such as the GSEs, life insurance companies, large banks and securitized markets.

最近，我們發表了一份研究報告，題為《商業地產債務市場，真假難分》。解決一些常見誤解的最重要事實包括：首先，價值 4.5 萬億美元的商業抵押貸款市場高度分散，地區和社區銀行佔市場的不到 1/3，其餘由其他貸方組成，例如 GSE、人壽保險公司、大型銀行和證券化市場。

Second, while office gets much of the media focus, it represents only about 17% of loans outstanding and 3% of the REIT market. Third, while we believe property values may come down 20% to 25% from the peak on average, one needs to keep in mind the significant price appreciation over the last 5 to 10 years. Because of this, average -- leverage ratios are closer to 30% to 35% versus the 50% or so where refinancings can occur.

其次，雖然寫字樓受到了媒體的廣泛關注，但它僅佔未償貸款的 17% 左右和 REIT 市場的 3%。第三，雖然我們認為房地產價值可能會從峰值平均下降 20% 至 25%，但需要牢記過去 5 至 10 年價格的大幅上漲。因此，平均槓桿率接近 30% 至 35%，而再融資可能達到 50% 左右。

Last, about 2/3 of mortgages are long-term fixed rate with the balance floating. And in those cases, many, but certainly not all borrowers had hedged to protect against interest rate increases. So what does that all mean? Credit losses will likely rise as they often do in recession, but we see little basis to believe this cycle will deviate from historical patterns. If anything, the improvement in loan underwriting post-GFC implies credit losses may be lower than average.

最後，大約2/3的抵押貸款是餘額浮動的長期固定利率。在那些情況下，許多但肯定不是所有借款人都進行了對沖以防止利率上升。那麼這一切意味著什麼呢？信貸損失可能會像經濟衰退時經常出現的那樣上升，但我們認為幾乎沒有理由相信這一周期會偏離歷史模式。如果有的話，全球金融危機後貸款承銷的改善意味著信貸損失可能低於平均水平。

In the private market, we are seeing deal flow beginning to emerge and observing prices down, in some cases, 15% to 20%. But note, private real estate indices as reported and certain private vehicles still are generally only down 5% to 10% from the peak, so likely still more to go.

在私募市場，我們看到交易開始湧現，價格下降，在某些情況下下降了 15% 到 20%。但請注意，所報告的私人房地產指數和某些私人車輛通常仍僅比峰值下跌 5% 至 10%，因此可能還會下跌更多。

Credit tightening from regional banks will have the most acute impact on construction loans in smaller private developers. The pullback will impact construction activity, small businesses and local GDP, but over a full cycle, this means less supply, less overbuilding, and more discipline, which should be a positive for rental growth and asset values on a 3- to 5-year horizon. What does this all mean for REITs? Our picture for 2023 and 2024 remain consistent with our views shared in January.

區域銀行的信貸緊縮將對小型私人開發商的建築貸款產生最嚴重的影響。回調將影響建築活動、小企業和當地 GDP，但在整個週期內，這意味著供應減少、過度建設減少和紀律嚴明，這應該對 3 至 5 年的租金增長和資產價值產生積極影響地平線。這對房地產投資信託基金意味著什麼？我們對 2023 年和 2024 年的展望與我們在 1 月份分享的觀點保持一致。

Recession, which should transition to recovery later this year or early next, REIT share prices that have generally discounted meaningful property declines already, REIT balance sheets are generally healthy and in many cases, will allow REITs to go on offense while local private players and private equity are either dealing with little access to new debt capital or legacy leverage problems.

經濟衰退應該會在今年晚些時候或明年初過渡到復蘇，房地產投資信託基金的股價已經普遍反映了房地產大幅下跌，房地產投資信託基金的資產負債表總體上是健康的，在許多情況下，將使房地產投資信託基金繼續進攻，而當地私人參與者和私人股權正在處理幾乎無法獲得新債務資本或遺留槓桿問題。

For Cohen & Steers, we made a lot of money for clients in the REIT recap cycle of 2009, and we will take the same approach, but likely in different ways, to capitalize on both listed and private opportunities.

對於 Cohen & Steers，我們在 2009 年的 REIT 回顧週期中為客戶賺了很多錢，我們將採取相同的方法，但可能會以不同的方式利用上市和私人機會。

Last, we believe 2023 will prove to be a good vintage year for listed real estate and we believe savvy, forward thinking investors should be using the recession to do one of two things, either rebalance out of private vehicles that haven't repriced enough into listed REITs, or allocate new capital over the course of the year as the transition from recession to early recovery plays out. With that, let me turn the call over to Joe.

最後，我們認為 2023 年將被證明是上市房地產的豐收年，我們認為精明、具有前瞻性思維的投資者應該利用經濟衰退來做兩件事之一，要么重新平衡尚未重新定價的私人車輛進入上市房地產投資信託基金，或者隨著從衰退到早期復甦的過渡，在這一年中分配新的資本。有了這個，讓我把電話轉給喬。

Thank you, John, and good morning. Today, I'd like to begin with a review of our first quarter business fundamentals, then turn to our outlook.

謝謝你，約翰，早上好。今天，我想首先回顧一下我們第一季度的業務基本面，然後再談談我們的展望。

In prior calls, we talked about our forecast for an average type of recession. Those views didn't include the failure of some prominent banks. As we all now know, in mid-March, banking liquidity event emerged, which appears to be contained for now, yet will manifest in tighter credit.

在之前的電話中，我們談到了我們對平均衰退類型的預測。這些觀點不包括一些知名銀行的倒閉。眾所周知，3月中旬，銀行業流動性事件出現，目前看來暫時得到遏制，但將表現為信貸收緊。

The Federal Reserve has found a breaking point for the more meaningful weak links in our financial system as we adjust from zero interest rates to more normalized interest rates. So at the margin, we shifted our outlook from an average recession to something more protracted.

隨著我們從零利率調整為更加正常化的利率，美聯儲已經找到了我們金融體系中更有意義的薄弱環節的突破點。因此，在邊緣，我們將我們的前景從平均衰退轉變為更持久的衰退。

If it wasn't a perfect storm for our asset classes in the quarter, it was a thorough storm with banks being the largest issuers in our preferred security strategy and among the largest sources of credit for the commercial real estate sector. Bank sector headwinds together with contracting money supply, raise the odds that the inflation cycle is breaking down, potentially affecting at the margin, our inflation-sensitive real asset strategies.

如果這對我們本季度的資產類別來說不是一場完美風暴，那將是一場徹底的風暴，銀行是我們首選安全策略中的最大發行人，也是商業房地產行業最大的信貸來源之一。銀行業逆風加上貨幣供應收縮，增加了通脹週期崩潰的可能性，可能會在一定程度上影響我們對通脹敏感的實物資產策略。

Our equity-oriented strategies underperformed stocks in the quarter while our preferred strategies underperformed bonds. Listed REIT stocks outperformed the private real estate market as measured by appraisals which do not adjust for the lead lag timing dynamic of listed versus private real estate performance.

我們的股票導向策略在本季度跑輸股票，而我們的首選策略跑輸債券。上市 REIT 股票的表現優於私人房地產市場，這是通過評估衡量的，評估並未針對上市與私人房地產表現的領先滯後時間動態進行調整。

Private real estate prices have begun to be marked down, beginning the process to catch up with listed real estate price declines of last year. In the first quarter, we had firm-wide outflows of $497 million. This was our fourth consecutive quarter of outflows and reflects the fundamental shift in the macroeconomic environment, including declines in financial asset values, higher interest rates, the peaking of inflation and the specter of recession. Both the wealth and institutional channels contributed to outflows, primarily in preferred stock strategies after the bank situation in March.

民營房地產價格開始下調，開始追趕去年掛牌房地產價格跌幅的進程。第一季度，我們全公司的資金流出 4.97 億美元。這是我們連續第四個季度出現資金外流，反映了宏觀經濟環境的根本轉變，包括金融資產價值下降、利率上升、通脹見頂和衰退的幽靈。財富和機構渠道都導致了資金外流，主要是在 3 月份銀行狀況之後的優先股策略中。

In total, preferreds had outflows of $872 million, which were partially offset by U.S. REIT strategy inflows of $434 million. Our global listed infrastructure and multi-strategy real assets portfolios also experienced modest inflows.

總的來說，優先股流出 8.72 億美元，部分被美國 REIT 策略流入 4.34 億美元所抵消。我們的全球上市基礎設施和多策略實物資產投資組合也經歷了適度的資金流入。

Open-end funds had net outflows of $305 million led by U.S. open-end funds with $508 million out, partially offset by inflows into our offshore CCAP funds, the 11th straight quarter of inflows and inflows into model-based portfolios. Reflecting regime change in volatility, open-end fund subscriptions in the quarter were 23% lower than the pace of -- for all of 2022. Likewise, redemptions were also 23% lower.

開放式基金淨流出 3.05 億美元，其中美國開放式基金流出 5.08 億美元，部分被流入我們的離岸 CCAP 基金、連續第 11 個季度流入和流入基於模型的投資組合所抵消。反映波動性的製度變化，本季度開放式基金的認購速度比 2022 年全年的速度低 23%。同樣，贖回也低 23%。

Of preferred open-end fund outflows, 42% were from model programs related to preferred strategies at a wirehouse and a private bank. Institutional advisory net outflows were $399 million, led by three clients trimming U.S. and global real estate portfolios. Sub-advisory ex Japan had $45 million of net outflows. Japan sub-advisory was the strongest channel in the quarter with net inflows of $326 million representing the fifth straight quarter of inflows and led by one of Daiwa Asset Management's U.S. REIT mutual funds that we sub-advise.

在偏好的開放式基金流出中，42% 來自與一家電訊公司和一家私人銀行的偏好策略相關的模型項目。機構諮詢淨流出 3.99 億美元，主要是三個客戶削減美國和全球房地產投資組合。日本前的次級諮詢有 4500 萬美元的淨流出。日本子諮詢是本季度最強勁的渠道，淨流入 3.26 億美元，連續第五個季度流入，由我們提供子諮詢的 Daiwa Asset Management 的美國 REIT 共同基金之一引領。

Our one unfunded pipeline was $995 million compared with $885 million last quarter and the 3-year average of $1.35 billion. To bridge the change, during the quarter, there was one funding of $25 million, 7 newly awarded mandates totaling $218 million and $83 million in canceled mandates. Four of the seven new mandates were in our U.S. REIT CIT vehicle for retirement plans. The other three were in multi-strategy real asset portfolios and global real estate.

我們的一個未獲得資金的管道為 9.95 億美元，而上一季度為 8.85 億美元，3 年平均值為 13.5 億美元。為了彌合這一變化，本季度有一筆 2500 萬美元的資金，7 項新授予的授權，總計 2.18 億美元，以及 8300 萬美元的取消授權。七項新授權中的四項屬於我們用於退休計劃的美國 REIT CIT 工具。其他三個是多策略實物資產投資組合和全球房地產。

Both the first quarter bank failures and the macro regime change have slowed the pace of searches. Our lower-than-normal scheduled finals reflect that the mandate and search process inevitably slows down in volatile environments. That said, we have a healthy opportunity set of searches and process as measured by the number of prospects, a number of strategies and their geographic diversity.

第一季度的銀行倒閉和宏觀制度的變化都減緩了搜索的步伐。我們低於正常的預定決賽反映了在動蕩的環境中授權和搜索過程不可避免地放緩。也就是說，根據潛在客戶的數量、一些策略及其地理多樣性來衡量，我們有一套健康的搜索和流程機會集。

For several quarters, we've been talking about how the regime change in the macro economy may affect asset allocations. We have now seen meaningful examples of how a 4% to 5% treasury yield can drive money flows. We expect that the combination of a more normal range of fixed income yields and the need to compensate for higher volatility will drive portfolios to increase their fixed income weightings.

幾個季度以來，我們一直在談論宏觀經濟的體制變化可能如何影響資產配置。我們現在已經看到了 4% 至 5% 的國債收益率如何推動資金流動的有意義的例子。我們預計，更正常的固定收益收益率範圍和補償更高波動性的需要將推動投資組合增加其固定收益權重。

At the same time, the lag in private equity value markdowns may push allocations to [illiquid] investments above portfolio target weightings. Allocators will need to balance the secular momentum private investments have, versus the markdowns and illiquidity that will be factors in the intermediate term. As these shifts occur and as return cycles turn to the positive, liquidity will be valued at a premium. While all asset classes, including ours, will be affected by these trends, we believe that secular tailwinds remain for allocations to our core strategies combined with our strong long-term investment performance, and we will be relentless in steering our 1-year batting averages back to the levels to which we are accustomed. We believe we are well positioned to resume organic growth.

與此同時，私募股權價值減價的滯後可能會將[非流動性]投資的配置推高至投資組合目標權重之上。分配者需要平衡私人投資的長期勢頭，以及將成為中期因素的降價和流動性不足。隨著這些轉變的發生以及回報週期轉為正值，流動性將被估值為溢價。儘管包括我們在內的所有資產類別都將受到這些趨勢的影響，但我們認為長期順風仍然存在，以配置我們的核心戰略，結合我們強勁的長期投資業績，我們將不懈地控制我們的 1 年平均成功率回到我們習慣的水平。我們相信我們已準備好恢復有機增長。

REITs should attract marginal flows as their prices have already corrected meaningfully and investors pause for price discovery in the private market. All investors should ask the question, why should you buy in the private market if you can get meaningfully better values in the listed market? It's a healthy discipline that more investors are using to guide capital.

房地產投資信託基金應該會吸引邊際資金流動，因為它們的價格已經進行了有意義的調整，並且投資者會停下來等待私人市場的價格發現。所有投資者都應該問這樣一個問題，如果你能在上市市場獲得更有意義的價值，你為什麼要在私人市場購買？這是一個健康的紀律，更多的投資者正在用它來引導資本。

In infrastructure, demand is growing and investors are below target weights. Just as in real estate and private equity, we believe listed infrastructure complements private infrastructure. For multi-strategy real assets, inflation has been significant. What had been just a theory became reality. For those that believe inflation will be sticky or resurgent. The insurance premium and an allocation is valuable, and we see more investors evaluating the strategy.

在基礎設施方面，需求正在增長，投資者低於目標權重。正如在房地產和私募股權領域一樣，我們認為上市基礎設施是對私人基礎設施的補充。對於多策略實物資產，通貨膨脹一直很嚴重。曾經只是一個理論的東西變成了現實。對於那些認為通貨膨脹會很棘手或會捲土重來的人。保險費和分配很有價值，我們看到更多的投資者正在評估該策略。

Our most underappreciated and under-owned strategy is resource equities, which includes energy, agriculture and metals and mining. These are all sectors with finite resources and supply constraints which may serve as drivers of both intrinsic value as well as price appreciation.

我們最被低估和持有不足的策略是資源股票，其中包括能源、農業、金屬和採礦。這些都是資源有限和供應受限的行業，可以作為內在價值和價格升值的驅動因素。

To emphasize John's comments on the macro environment, we believe that the banking system is fundamentally sound, notwithstanding the recent turmoil. And as a result, the preferred market will stabilize and ultimately participate in the new return cycle for bonds that likely has begun. As it relates to headlines about the looming risk of a commercial real estate debt crisis, we believe that with some exceptions, property owners maintain adequate equity reflecting appreciation over the past cycle, even with the 20% to 25% price correction we've been calling for.

為了強調約翰對宏觀環境的評論，我們認為儘管最近出現動盪，但銀行體系基本面良好。因此，優先市場將趨於穩定，並最終參與可能已經開始的新債券回報週期。由於它與有關商業房地產債務危機迫在眉睫的風險的頭條新聞有關，我們認為，除了一些例外，即使我們一直在進行 20% 至 25% 的價格調整，業主仍保持足夠的資產以反映過去週期的升值呼籲。

The exceptions are urban office markets and properties developed or acquired and financed with debt over the past several years at the peaks of the most recent price and interest rate cycles. While equity needs for these properties are not insignificant, they appear to be manageable in light of current levels of dry powder and private equity, the size and development of private credit markets and the expected capital flows into REIT's once investment opportunities ripen.

例外情況是過去幾年在最近價格和利率週期的高峰期開發或收購併通過債務融資的城市寫字樓市場和房地產。雖然這些資產的股權需求並非微不足道，但鑑於目前的干火藥和私募股權水平、私人信貸市場的規模和發展以及投資機會成熟後預計流入 REIT 的資本，它們似乎是可以管理的。

We continue to build our private real estate initiative. For our institutional private equity fund, we had a second closing. For our non-traded REIT, Cohen & Steers income opportunities REIT, we have been declared effective by the SEC, are nearly through the state registration process and conversations with distributors are progressing. We continue to evaluate the commercial real estate price correction and believe that the cyclical downturn will present attractive investment opportunities. We are, therefore, being especially disciplined and patient in deploying capital.

我們繼續建立我們的私人房地產計劃。對於我們的機構私募股權基金，我們進行了第二次關閉。對於我們的非交易 REIT，Cohen & Steers income opportunities REIT，我們已被 SEC 宣布生效，幾乎完成了國家註冊程序，並且與分銷商的對話正在取得進展。我們繼續評估商業地產價格調整，相信週期性低迷將帶來有吸引力的投資機會。因此，我們在部署資本方面特別有紀律和耐心。

On the client engagement front, we have developed tools to help investors optimize portfolios in terms of weightings and allocations between listed and private real estate markets within a financial asset portfolio.

在客戶參與方面，我們開發了工具來幫助投資者在金融資產組合中上市和私人房地產市場之間的權重和分配方面優化投資組合。

Our recently published annual report was entitled Change Creates Opportunity. The regime change in the macro economy is significant and will take time to unfold. It will present a new menu of cyclical and secular trends and asset class valuations, all of which will lead to money in motion. Our job is to manage prudently as the shifts play out balancing investments in the business with prudent cost controls and be prepared to capitalize on opportunities for our clients.

我們最近發布的年度報告題為“變革創造機遇”。宏觀經濟的體制變化意義重大，需要時間才能顯現。它將呈現一個新的周期和長期趨勢以及資產類別估值菜單，所有這些都將導致資金流動。我們的工作是審慎管理，因為轉變會平衡業務投資與審慎的成本控制，並準備好為我們的客戶利用機會。

We look forward to reporting to you on our progress. Thank you for listening. Operator, please open the lines for questions.

我們期待著向您報告我們的進展。謝謝你的聆聽。接線員，請打開問題線路。

(Operator Instructions) Your first question is from the line of John Dunn with Evercore ISI.

（操作員說明）您的第一個問題來自 Evercore ISI 的 John Dunn。

Maybe we could start off with the biggest drag on flows right now. Can you -- you talked about performance reset for preferreds, but can you talk about what's going to drive demand for preferreds and maybe where we are in the demand cycle. Also any early post quarter shifts?

也許我們現在可以從對流量的最大拖累開始。你能不能——你談到了偏好的性能重置，但你能談談什麼會推動對偏好的需求，也許我們在需求週期中所處的位置。還有任何早期的季度後輪班嗎？

Sure, John, let me start and maybe John Cheigh can add to my response. Well, the primary attraction of preferred securities is their current yields and potential for capital appreciation, particularly at times like this when you've had some dislocation. So -- and I talked a little bit about how asset allocations are shifting now that there are more fixed income choices that have something better than a 0% yield. And what we've experienced over the past couple of years is that preferreds have stood out through that period of low rates. But now with the banking situation and the price declines, yields are even better. And it appears that the banking system is stabilized for now. And as John articulated, our view on the system overall with certain exceptions is positive.

當然，John，讓我開始吧，也許 John Cheigh 可以補充我的回答。好吧，優先證券的主要吸引力在於它們當前的收益率和資本增值潛力，尤其是在你出現一些混亂的時候。所以 - 我談到了資產配置如何發生變化，因為現在有更多固定收益選擇的收益率高於 0%。我們在過去幾年中所經歷的是，優先股在低利率時期脫穎而出。但現在隨著銀行業務狀況和價格下跌，收益率甚至更高。看起來銀行系統目前已經穩定下來。正如 John 所闡述的那樣，我們對整個系統的看法是積極的，但有一些例外。

So as it relates to recent activity, the outflows have abated and so I'd say we're at a neutral level at this point. And if the banking system continues to heal, I would expect that the flows will ultimately resume for preferreds.

因此，與最近的活動相關，資金流出已經減少，所以我想說我們目前處於中性水平。如果銀行系統繼續恢復，我預計優先股的流動最終會恢復。

Great. So on real estate, I believe real estate is a secular allocation, but how do you think [full] demand for REITs will continue to play out over '23, maybe by the different sales channels.

偉大的。因此，在房地產方面，我認為房地產是一種長期配置，但你認為對 REITs 的 [全部] 需求將如何在 23 世紀繼續發揮作用，也許是通過不同的銷售渠道。

Well, I'll start and then John could add some color because we're in conversations with a lot of different types of investors. But we have a great history so you can look at how they performed throughout recessions and credit cycles. And we put out -- the research that said that we want to tend to start to average (inaudible) [REITS] as recession takes hold and some of the best returns can come by way of that.

好吧，我會開始，然後約翰可以添加一些顏色，因為我們正在與許多不同類型的投資者進行對話。但我們擁有悠久的歷史，因此您可以了解它們在整個衰退和信貸週期中的表現。我們推出了 - 研究表明我們希望隨著經濟衰退的發生而開始平均（聽不清）[REITS]，並且一些最好的回報可以通過這種方式獲得。

Looking past that and thinking about our comments on the challenges in real estate financing, ultimately, REITs as they have been at many points in time and major turning points in the real estate markets, there'll be providers of capital to take advantage of the opportunities and help sort out -- the any of the debt refinancing issues that come up in the sector. So I would say on the wealth side, there's just much better education than there has ever been on how to use REITs in a portfolio.

回顧過去並思考我們對房地產融資挑戰的評論，最終，房地產投資信託基金，因為它們在房地產市場的許多時間點和重大轉折點，都會有資本提供者利用機會並幫助解決 - 該部門出現的任何債務再融資問題。所以我想說，在財富方面，關於如何在投資組合中使用 REITs 的教育比以往任何時候都要好得多。

We have been developing, particularly in light of our private real estate initiatives and our non-traded REIT have developed tools for investors to help them allocate between how much they should have a real estate in a financial asset portfolio, but then how to allocate that between private and listed.

我們一直在開發，特別是考慮到我們的私人房地產計劃和我們的非交易房地產投資信託基金已經為投資者開發了工具，以幫助他們在金融資產組合中應該擁有多少房地產之間進行分配，然後如何分配介於私有和上市之間。

And so I think we're in a great position to help advise financial advisers on how to navigate with some pretty exciting turning points in the commercial real estate market.

因此，我認為我們處於一個很好的位置，可以幫助財務顧問就如何應對商業房地產市場中一些非常令人興奮的轉折點提出建議。

Institutionally, there's a lot of activity. As I said in my comments, it's not manifested yet an official finals, but we're in a lot of searches and there's a lot of interesting dynamics as we're seeing around the world, things like institutions who have invested in listed real estate using passive strategies, wanting to convert those strategies to active strategies; two, coming up with what we call completion portfolios but you might have an institution who has a lot of capital in a core private real estate strategy, but they'd like to complement that with some of the sectors and exposures you can get in the listed market.

在製度上，有很多活動。正如我在評論中所說，它還沒有正式的決賽，但我們正在進行大量搜索，我們在世界各地看到了很多有趣的動態，比如投資上市房地產的機構使用被動策略，希望將這些策略轉換為主動策略；第二，提出我們所說的完成投資組合，但您可能擁有一家在核心私人房地產戰略中擁有大量資本的機構，但他們希望通過您可以獲得的一些行業和風險來補充它上市市場。

And we've also just seen recently this more interest on this whole topic of the private -- or the listed markets have already corrected, that's where the values are presenting themselves. We can't put capital work in the private market because there's price discovery and that's happening, and there's -- it's an illiquid market, nothing's trading.

而且我們最近也看到了對整個私人話題的更多興趣——或者上市市場已經糾正，這就是價值體現的地方。我們不能將資本投入私人市場，因為存在價格發現，而且這種情況正在發生，而且——這是一個流動性不足的市場，沒有任何交易。

So I'd say -- and this is not just with the institutions themselves, but the asset consultants who have, I'd say, been laggards on this whole concept, but just more interested in being dynamic along the cycle as to where the marginal dollar goes.

所以我想說——這不僅僅是機構本身，還有資產顧問，我想說，他們在整個概念上都落後了，但他們更感興趣的是在周期中保持動態邊際美元走。

I guess the only thing I'd add is despite the media, is CRE, the next [shoe you drop], et cetera, et cetera. I think the vast majority of investors agree with you, John and us that they have strong faith in real estate as an asset class and want to continue to get more exposure to it.

我想我唯一要補充的是儘管有媒體，是 CRE，下一個 [shoe you drop]，等等，等等。我認為絕大多數投資者都同意你、約翰和我們的看法，他們對房地產作為一種資產類別抱有強烈的信心，並希望繼續更多地接觸它。

We're seeing a limited amount of people moving from existing private vehicles into the listed markets. So there's definitely some of that. But of course, there's limits on that. But we are definitely also seeing some investors that are trying to calibrate and time how they get exposure over the course of 2023. I think people recognize on a buy-and-hold basis, if they buy today, they'll be very happy 3 to 5 years from now. But of course, they want to find the (inaudible) bottom. And that's why our advice to them is that as we normally transition from these recessionary kind of periods to early recovery periods, no one ever really times the bottom perfectly.

我們看到有限數量的人從現有的私家車轉向上市市場。所以肯定有一些。但當然，這是有限制的。但我們肯定也看到一些投資者正在嘗試校準和計算他們在 2023 年期間的風險敞口。我認為人們在買入並持有的基礎上認識到，如果他們今天買入，他們會非常高興 3到 5 年後。但當然，他們想找到（聽不清）底部。這就是為什麼我們給他們的建議是，當我們通常從這些衰退時期過渡到早期復蘇時期時，沒有人真正完美地把握住底部。

And so there are certainly some milestones, but that's why we'd expect people to so-called [leg in], if you will, to these allocations over the course of 2023 rather than just try to make one bold call at a certain point in time.

因此，肯定有一些里程碑，但這就是為什麼我們希望人們在 2023 年期間所謂的[介入]這些分配，而不是僅僅嘗試在某個時刻做出大膽的決定及時。

Got you. And then maybe a level down. I mean, if you look at your guys at the fund level, your top real estate exposure or some version of industrials, healthcare, infrastructure, data centers. Does positioning matter? Does everything get (inaudible) if sentiment turns against real estate at large, particularly what we're seeing on the CRE side?

明白了然後可能會下降一個級別。我的意思是，如果你在基金層面看你的傢伙，你最大的房地產風險敞口或某些版本的工業、醫療保健、基礎設施、數據中心。定位重要嗎？如果情緒轉而反對整個房地產，尤其是我們在 CRE 方面看到的情況，一切都會變得（聽不清）嗎？

Yes. Look, I think there's always short-term things that happened. So CNBC says CRE debt and then everyone talks about office. And people say, "Okay, I think REITs are bad." That's why we always try to reiterate to people, office is 3% of the REIT index and our exposure to office might be something like 1% or 1.2%, something like that. And we can say that 100x and certainly, it will still educate someone because of their understanding of what REITs are.

是的。聽著，我認為總會發生一些短期的事情。所以 CNBC 說 CRE 債務，然後每個人都在談論辦公室。人們會說，“好吧，我認為房地產投資信託基金很糟糕。”這就是為什麼我們總是試圖向人們重申，寫字樓佔 REIT 指數的 3%，而我們對寫字樓的敞口可能約為 1% 或 1.2%，類似的情況。我們可以說 100 倍，當然，它仍然會教育一些人，因為他們了解什麼是房地產投資信託基金。

So I think when those overreactions happen, I mean, look, that's the opportunity. I mean that really is the opportunity. But I don't think these misconceptions are so strong that they're going to persist for quarters and years, those reflexes usually create an opportunity on, like I said, something happened with [SVB] and REITs underperformed by 8% versus the broader equity market. These tend to be more shorter-term reactions than durable trends that investors should -- that longer-term investors should worry about.

所以我認為當這些過度反應發生時，我的意思是，看，這就是機會。我的意思是那真的是機會。但我認為這些誤解不會強烈到會持續幾個季度和幾年，這些反應通常會創造機會，就像我說的那樣，[SVB] 和 REITs 的表現比更廣泛的市場低 8%平等市場。這些往往是更短期的反應，而不是投資者應該擔心的持久趨勢——這是長期投資者應該擔心的。

I'd just add that today, the range in property sectors and underlying businesses is probably as diverse as it's ever been. 20 years ago, there's just much more representation by the core property sectors as we all know, office, industrial, apartments, et cetera. But today, with cell towers and data centers, you have some sectors that are a little bit less connected to the economics that drive the property sector and the financing markets in the case of cell towers. So we've actually -- with our recompletion strategy or next-generation restrategy, it's performing extremely well this year, a little bit more consistent with what John talked about on the concentration of performance in the equity market from some tech names.

我只想補充一點，今天，房地產行業和基礎業務的範圍可能與以往一樣多樣化。 20 年前，眾所周知，核心房地產行業的代表要多得多，辦公樓、工業、公寓等。但是今天，有了手機信號塔和數據中心，一些行業與推動房地產行業和手機信號塔融資市場的經濟聯繫有所減少。所以我們實際上 - 通過我們的重新完成戰略或下一代重新戰略，它今年表現非常好，與約翰談到的一些科技公司在股票市場集中表現的內容更加一致。

Right. Makes sense. And we haven't talked a lot about non-U.S. real estate. What are the kind of dynamics going on overseas and what's the differences for sourcing flows for that part of the menu?

正確的。說得通。我們還沒有談太多關於非美國房地產的問題。海外正在發生什麼樣的動態？菜單那部分的採購流程有何不同？

Yes. So that's a good question. So I guess obviously, the two big drivers when you think about whether it's Europe or Asia, it's the economic trajectory, which was somewhat driven by at some point so-called COVID reopening. We are further -- sorry, we are further behind in that in places like Japan, Hongkong, China and Singapore. So there are places that are seeing more accelerating economic growth as opposed to Europe and Asia. So I would say Asia is a place generally that we have favored at the margin over the U.S. and Europe because it is further behind, and frankly, valuations are generally more attractive.

是的。所以這是一個很好的問題。所以我想很明顯，當你考慮是歐洲還是亞洲時，兩個主要驅動因素是經濟軌跡，這在某種程度上是由所謂的 COVID 重新開放驅動的。我們進一步 - 抱歉，我們在日本、香港、中國和新加坡等地進一步落後。因此，與歐洲和亞洲相比，有些地方的經濟增長速度更快。所以我想說亞洲是我們普遍看好美國和歐洲的地方，因為它更落後，而且坦率地說，估值通常更具吸引力。

The other thing with Asia is generally balance sheets, for the most part, are healthier than the U.S., in Europe. Again, I think the U.S. balances are very, very healthy from the REIT side. But Asia, we feel both from a reopening perspective and from a balance sheet perspective, very good.

亞洲的另一件事是資產負債表總體上比歐洲的美國更健康。同樣，我認為美國房地產投資信託基金的餘額非常、非常健康。但是從重新開放的角度和資產負債表的角度來看，我們都覺得亞洲非常好。

I would say in Europe, you certainly have that reopening dynamic, which is a positive, and we're seeing it in places like retail. But I would say at the margin, European REIT balance sheets are a little bit worse than here in the U.S. And so while we feel very good about European bank balance sheets, we feel more cautious on the European REIT balance sheet. Again, this is all at the margin. So when we talk to investors, I would say, or large institutions, particularly global institutions, pension funds, sovereigns, the conversations are almost always about global real estate. They're occasionally about U.S., but it's primarily about having a global allocation. So whether it's sovereigns in Asia, the Middle East or Europe, I'd say that's the dominant conversation.

我想說在歐洲，你肯定有重新開放的動力，這是積極的，我們在零售等地方看到了它。但我要說的是，歐洲房地產投資信託基金的資產負債表比美國差一點。因此，雖然我們對歐洲銀行的資產負債表感覺很好，但我們對歐洲房地產投資信託基金的資產負債表更為謹慎。同樣，這一切都處於邊緣。因此，當我們與投資者或大型機構交談時，我會說，尤其是全球機構、養老基金、主權國家，談話幾乎總是關於全球房地產。他們偶爾與美國有關，但主要是關於全球分配。因此，無論是亞洲、中東還是歐洲的主權國家，我都認為這是主流話題。

So I think we're definitely seeing all those opportunities for all the things we've talked about. Valuations have improved, a lot of those entities have capital that they still want to deploy, albeit maybe deployments are less than what they were making 3 years ago. They're still making new capital commitments and REITs are a place where, number one, we're educating them on. In some cases, they've never invested in REITs or they've only done it passively. And secondly, we're educating them on how can it be that private real estate is going down and public REIT is going to do well and which tell them, it always happens this way. They're learning something new and it gives them confidence to become a more active investor in REIT at this point in the cycle.

所以我認為我們肯定會看到我們所談論的所有事情的所有這些機會。估值有所改善，其中許多實體擁有他們仍想部署的資本，儘管部署可能少於 3 年前的水平。他們仍在做出新的資本承諾，而房地產投資信託基金是我們教育他們的第一位。在某些情況下，他們從未投資過房地產投資信託基金，或者只是被動投資。其次，我們正在教育他們，為什麼私人房地產正在下跌，而公共房地產投資信託基金卻會表現良好，這告訴他們，事情總是這樣發生的。他們正在學習一些新東西，這讓他們有信心在周期的這個階段成為更積極的 REIT 投資者。

Got you. And then it's early days for private real estate, but it sounds like stuff is happening. Maybe just talk a little bit about the timing of things that could happen over the rest of this year and the demand you're seeing? And then you talked about essentially a good return environment.

明白了然後是私人房地產的早期階段，但聽起來事情正在發生。也許只是談談今年剩餘時間可能發生的事情的時間以及您看到的需求？然後你基本上談到了一個良好的回報環境。

Yes. So we're in the capital-raising mode for both the institutional vehicle as well as the CNS REIT vehicle. In terms -- we're not deploying capital at this point. We're waiting for the price to correct. And waiting for our shots to get the type of returns that we want. So we're going to be, as I said, very patient, very diligent. So I can't tell you when that's going to be, but it's probably sometime in the second half of this year.

是的。因此，我們處於機構工具和 CNS REIT 工具的籌資模式。換句話說——我們此時不部署資本。我們正在等待價格修正。並等待我們的鏡頭獲得我們想要的回報類型。因此，正如我所說，我們將非常耐心、非常勤奮。所以我不能告訴你那會是什麼時候，但可能是在今年下半年的某個時候。

And the two topics, capital raising and deployment at some point, are connected, right? Investors want to know that what you're going to be doing. And so to the extent there's no activity in the transaction market, there's -- investors sometimes want to sit on their hands. But we're in contact with some investors who really understand what we are doing and so I think some time toward the end of this year, the acquisition markets will start to open up as the whole debt situation starts to get resolved in -- for the types of situations that John and I talked about.

融資和部署這兩個主題在某個時候是相關的，對嗎？投資者想知道你將要做什麼。因此，在交易市場沒有活動的情況下，投資者有時想袖手旁觀。但我們正在與一些真正了解我們正在做的事情的投資者接觸，所以我認為在今年年底的某個時候，隨著整個債務問題開始得到解決，收購市場將開始開放——約翰和我談到的情況類型。

We'll stay tuned. So advisers have been sliding a little bit, and you talked about some slowdown in searches, but can you talk a little more -- give us a little more flavor of the advisory conversations going on? And do you think we get a normal -- the stuff that's already in the pipeline, normal fundings over the year or some get delayed? And maybe regionally, overall, how can you get that channel back to positive?

我們將繼續關注。所以顧問一直在下滑一點，你談到了搜索速度的放緩，但你能多說一點——給我們更多關於正在進行的諮詢對話的味道嗎？你認為我們會得到一個正常的——已經在籌備中的東西，一年中的正常資金還是有些被推遲了？也許在區域上，總體而言，您如何才能使該渠道恢復積極？

Well, I think a lot of the slowdown, and you can see that in our -- one in funded pipeline, and we can kind of bridge -- if you followed my comments, you saw there's not a lot of funding activity in the quarter. And so it's not a matter of interest and demand changing, it's just a matter of what -- in the environment that things have just slowed down.

好吧，我認為很多放緩，你可以在我們的資金管道中看到這一點，我們可以有點橋樑 - 如果你聽從我的評論，你會發現本季度沒有太多的資金活動.因此，這不是興趣和需求變化的問題，這只是一個問題——在環境中，事情剛剛放緩。

So in terms of the search activity, I think it's been as active as I've seen it. It's just taking longer for them to get through the process. And the asset owners are dealing with a lot of things, dealing with volatility in the markets, shifting opportunity sets and I tried to convey that in my comments. And it's just results and the process taking a longer period of time. But as it relates to the number of prospects that we're in conversations with, it's still very active and it's across real estate, both U.S. and global, it's across infrastructure as well as multi-strategy real assets notwithstanding the fact that inflation is coming down.

因此，就搜索活動而言，我認為它和我所看到的一樣活躍。他們只是需要更長的時間來完成這個過程。資產所有者正在處理很多事情，應對市場的波動，不斷變化的機會集，我試圖在我的評論中表達這一點。這只是結果，過程需要更長的時間。但由於它與我們正在與之交談的潛在客戶的數量有關，它仍然非常活躍，它涉及美國和全球的房地產，它涉及基礎設施以及多策略實物資產，儘管通脹即將到來向下。

Right. And then maybe just checking on Japan. We're now a year into the positive part of the distribution cycle, normally the last multiple years. Any concerns for people that you can see?

正確的。然後也許只是檢查日本。我們現在進入了分銷週期的積極部分，通常是最近幾年。你能看到人們有什麼顧慮嗎？

Japan is very difficult to predict. It's been our strongest inflow channel. The drivers behind that include going back a little ways, just the strength of the dollar, but also in the wealth channel, there's -- there can be at points in time, a lot of fattish type investing and chasing of things like tech. So the fact that tech went into a downturn has helped investors go back to more value and income-oriented allocations. So that's hard to predict.

日本很難預測。這是我們最強大的流入渠道。這背後的驅動因素包括稍微回溯，只是美元的強勢，但在財富渠道中，也有——在某個時間點，可能會有很多肥厚的投資和追逐科技等事物。因此，科技股陷入低迷這一事實幫助投資者回歸到更多以價值和收入為導向的配置。所以這很難預測。

I'd say the other dynamic that as it relates to our sub-advisory business there is -- as is the case in Japan, management's change every couple of years, and I would say the current management at Daiwa Asset Management is very interested in our strategies and very interesting in doing things to promote those vehicles. So that makes me optimistic.

我想說的是與我們的次級諮詢業務相關的另一個動態——就像日本的情況一樣，管理層每兩年更換一次，我想說大和資產管理公司的現任管理層對我們的策略和在做事情來推廣這些車輛方面非常有趣。所以這讓我很樂觀。

Institutionally, because of the fact that the market has been closed due to COVID, but now reopening, it's been slow, but we would expect that to get better as that country overall tends to get back more to normal in terms of business activity.

從制度上講，由於市場因 COVID 而關閉，但現在重新開放，所以進展緩慢，但我們預計情況會好轉，因為該國總體上傾向於在商業活動方面恢復正常。

Good to hear. So maybe just on closed-end funds. What do you think the window looks for like for the rest of the year? Will it open because there's probably some good returns out there for new money?

很高興聽到。所以也許只是封閉式基金。您認為今年餘下時間的櫥窗是什麼樣子的？它會開放，因為新資金可能會有一些不錯的回報嗎？

I think the window is closed for the foreseeable future. And one of the reasons is that with the cost of debt financing today, there are not many strategies for which you can create a positive spread on the cost of your financing. So you can't enhance the yield of the closed-end fund using leverage. At the same time, there are discounts in the market to asset value that are very attractive. So those things are going to make it hard for the window to reopen.

我認為在可預見的未來，這個窗口是關閉的。原因之一是，考慮到當今的債務融資成本，沒有多少策略可以為融資成本創造正利差。所以你不能用槓桿來提高封閉式基金的收益。同時，市場對資產價值的折價非常誘人。因此，這些事情將使窗口難以重新打開。

I will say, though, that once the interest rate cycle turns, those things can change pretty quickly, meaning discounts can narrow. If a field settle out at certain levels, there are a couple of strategies you could do a closed-end fund for. But there right now with -- I mean our outlook is that yields will be more normal. And so if that's the case, it's going to be tougher to use leverage in closed-end funds.

不過，我要說的是，一旦利率週期轉變，這些事情就會很快發生變化，這意味著折扣可能會縮小。如果一個領域在一定水平上安定下來，你可以為封閉式基金制定一些策略。但現在 - 我的意思是我們的前景是收益率將更加正常。因此，如果是這種情況，在封閉式基金中使用槓桿將變得更加困難。

One more real estate one. How do you guys think about real estate debt lending in addition to your private vehicles?

再來一個房地產。除了私人車輛之外，你們如何看待房地產債務貸款？

Well, we don't currently have a capability in that. We invest in certain types of real estate company, debt, preferred stock as well as REIT debt. It's a capability that would be a natural one for us. And based on our view of the fact that some regional banks will pull back as lenders and there's going to be an opportunity and some asset managers are talking about it already, but it's something that we're going to spend time on and see if we can find a capability that would complement everything that we've built in real estate.

好吧，我們目前沒有這方面的能力。我們投資某些類型的房地產公司、債務、優先股以及 REIT 債務。這對我們來說是一種自然的能力。根據我們的看法，一些地區性銀行將作為貸方撤回，這將是一個機會，一些資產管理公司已經在談論它，但這是我們要花時間研究的事情，看看我們是否可以找到一種能力來補充我們在房地產中建立的一切。

Got you. And then maybe just a [thumb] (inaudible) for people. In January '24, what do you think we'll look back and say these were the areas that drove positive flows in '23?

明白了然後可能只是人們的[拇指]（聽不清）。在 24 年 1 月，您認為我們會回顧什麼並說這些是在 23 年推動正流量的領域？

Well, I think that if the interest rate cycle does, in fact, peak as John articulated and the markets respond to that, it will create flows in REITs. It will create flows in preferred securities. I'd say that both -- one precondition would be that the banking system has to continue to show that it's stabilized. But to answer your precise question like that, that to me would be if the environment starts to normalize, then we have a lot of interest that's kind of waiting on the sidelines for those conditions to get better.

好吧，我認為如果利率週期確實如約翰所說的那樣達到頂峰並且市場對此做出反應，它將在房地產投資信託基金中創造流量。它將創造優先證券的流動。我想說兩者都有——一個先決條件是銀行系統必須繼續表明它已經穩定。但要回答你這樣的確切問題，對我來說就是如果環境開始正常化，那麼我們有很多興趣在場邊等待這些條件好轉。

There are no further questions at this time. I will now turn the call back over to the CEO, Mr. Joe Harvey.

目前沒有其他問題。我現在將把電話轉回給首席執行官喬·哈維先生。

Great. Well, thank you for your time this morning, and we look forward to speaking to you in July as we report our second quarter earnings. Have a great day.

偉大的。好吧，謝謝你今天早上的時間，我們期待在 7 月報告第二季度收益時與你交談。祝你有美好的一天。

Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for participating. This concludes today's conference call. You may now disconnect.

女士們，先生們，感謝你們的參與。今天的電話會議到此結束。您現在可以斷開連接。