Core Natural Resources, Inc. (CNR) 2026 Q1 法說會逐字稿

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  • Operator

    Operator

  • Good morning, ladies and gentlemen, and welcome to the Core Natural Resources, Inc. first quarter 2026 earnings conference call. (Operator Instructions) This call is being recorded on Thursday, May 7, 2026. I would now like to turn the conference over to Deck Slone. Please go ahead.

    各位女士、先生,早安,歡迎參加 Core Natural Resources, Inc. 2026 年第一季財報電話會議。(接線員指示)本通話於 2026 年 5 月 7 日(星期四)錄音。現在我想把會議交給 Deck Slone。請開始。

  • Deck Slone - Senior Vice President - Strategy and Public Policy

    Deck Slone - Senior Vice President - Strategy and Public Policy

  • Good morning from Canonsburg, Pennsylvania, everyone, and thanks for joining us today. Before we begin, let me remind you that certain statements made during this call, including statements relating to our expected future business and financial performance, may be considered forward-looking statements according to the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act.

    各位早安,我在賓夕法尼亞州卡農斯堡向大家問好,感謝各位今天加入。在開始之前,提醒各位,本次通話中所作的某些陳述,包括與我們預期未來業務與財務表現相關的陳述,可能依據《私人證券訴訟改革法》被視為前瞻性陳述。

  • Forward-looking statements, by their nature, address matters that are, to different degrees, uncertain. These uncertainties, which are described in more detail in the annual and quarterly reports that we file with the SEC, may cause our actual future results to be materially different than those expressed in our forward-looking statements.

    前瞻性陳述就其本質而言,涉及在不同程度上具有不確定性的事項。這些不確定性在我們向美國證券交易委員會(SEC)提交的年度與季度報告中有更詳細的說明,並可能導致我們未來實際結果與前瞻性陳述所表達者存在重大差異。

  • We do not undertake to update our forward-looking statements, whether as a result of new information, future events or otherwise, except as may be required by law. I'd also like to remind you that you can find a reconciliation of the non-GAAP financial measures that we plan to discuss this morning at the end of our press release, a copy of which we have posted in the Investors section of our website at corenaturalresources.com.

    除非法律要求,否則我們不承擔因新資訊、未來事件或其他原因而更新前瞻性陳述的義務。我也想提醒各位,今天上午我們將討論的非 GAAP 財務衡量指標之調節表,可在我們新聞稿末尾找到;該新聞稿副本已張貼於我們網站 corenaturalresources.com 的投資人(Investors)專區。

  • Also participating on this morning's call will be Jimmy Brock, our Chairman and CEO; Mitesh Thakkar, our President and CFO; and Bob Braithwaite, our Senior Vice President of Marketing and Sales. After some formal remarks from Jimmy and Mitesh, we will be happy to take questions.

    今天上午一同參與通話的還有:董事長兼執行長 Jimmy Brock;總裁兼財務長 Mitesh Thakkar;以及行銷與銷售資深副總裁 Bob Braithwaite。在 Jimmy 與 Mitesh 發表一些正式談話後,我們將很樂意回答問題。

  • With that, I'll now turn the call over to Jimmy. Jimmy?

    那麼,我現在把通話交給 Jimmy。Jimmy?

  • James Brock - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer

    James Brock - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer

  • Thank you, Deck, and good morning, everyone. After a challenging 2025, I am excited to report a strong start to 2026. Our results for this quarter reflect the resilience of our business model and the commitment of our team members across the company.

    謝謝你,Deck,各位早安。在充滿挑戰的 2025 年之後,我很高興報告 2026 年有一個強勁的開局。本季的成果反映了我們商業模式的韌性,以及公司各部門團隊成員的投入與承諾。

  • Our operating platform delivered efficient, reliable performance throughout the first quarter, underpinned by our safety-driven culture. As we turn the page from the Leer South fire, the mine set the pace, achieving strong production and cash cost performance throughout the quarter.

    在以安全為核心的文化支撐下,我們的營運平台於第一季全程展現高效率且可靠的表現。隨著我們翻過 Leer South 火災事件這一頁,該礦場帶頭衝刺,整季在產量與現金成本表現上都相當亮眼。

  • As expected, the mining conditions have been favorable, and we are now running as a premier world-class longwall mine. In addition, West Elk shifted into high gear in BC, where geologic conditions are favorable, capturing significant operational efficiencies with an improved cost structure.

    如預期,採礦條件一直相當有利,我們目前正以世界級頂尖長壁採煤礦的水準運轉。此外,West Elk 在 BC 區段也加速運行,地質條件有利,透過改善成本結構,取得顯著的營運效率提升。

  • Now let me dive a little deeper into our operational results. Coal sales within the High CV Thermal segment came in at 7.7 million tons in Q1 '26 compared to 7.8 million tons in Q4 of '25. During the quarter, our High CV Thermal segment reported realized coal revenue of $58.86 per ton compared to $58.11 per ton in the previous quarter.

    接下來我更深入說明我們的營運成果。高熱值動力煤(High CV Thermal)部門的煤炭銷量在 2026 年第一季為 770 萬噸,較 2025 年第四季的 780 萬噸略低。本季,高熱值動力煤部門的已實現煤炭收入為每噸 58.86 美元,較前一季的每噸 58.11 美元增加。

  • In Q1 '26, cash costs came in at $42.56 per ton compared to $41.42 per ton in Q4 '25. Segment cash costs for the current quarter were elevated due in part to this winter's Arctic outbreak, which drastically increased power costs at the Pennsylvania Mining Complex as well as a few weeks of tough mining conditions, which are now behind us at PMC.

    2026 年第一季的現金成本為每噸 42.56 美元,較 2025 年第四季的每噸 41.42 美元上升。本季部門現金成本偏高,部分原因是今年冬季的北極寒流大幅推升賓夕法尼亞採礦綜合體(PMC)的電力成本,另外也有數週遇到較艱困的採礦條件;目前這些狀況在 PMC 已經過去。

  • In the Metallurgical segment, coking coal sales came in at 2.1 million tons in Q1 '26. During the quarter, our Metallurgical segment reported realized coking coal revenue of $122.11 per ton, which represented a 7% improvement over the previous quarter. The segment as a whole, inclusive of the 300,000 tons of thermal byproduct sales achieved an average selling price of $112.03 per ton.

    在冶金煤(Metallurgical)部門,2026 年第一季焦煤銷量為 210 萬噸。本季,冶金煤部門的已實現焦煤收入為每噸 122.11 美元,較前一季提升 7%。該部門整體(包含 30 萬噸動力煤副產品銷售)平均售價為每噸 112.03 美元。

  • Segment realization increased $6.58 per ton compared to the previous quarter. Cash costs for the quarter came in at $92.35 per ton compared to $103.49 per ton in the previous period, reflecting a full operating quarter at Leer South Mine. Adjusted EBITDA for the segment totaled $58 million, which was up $79 million from the previous period.

    部門實現價格較前一季每噸增加 6.58 美元。本季現金成本為每噸 92.35 美元,較前期的每噸 103.49 美元下降,反映 Leer South 礦場完整一季的營運。該部門調整後 EBITDA 合計 5,800 萬美元,較前期增加 7,900 萬美元。

  • In the Powder River Basin segment, coal sales within the segment came in at 11.9 million tons in Q1 '26. During the quarter, our PRB segment reported realized coal revenue of $14.39 per ton and cash cost of $13.64 per ton, which was in line with the prior quarter's cash cost of $13.62 per ton.

    在粉河盆地(Powder River Basin, PRB)部門,2026 年第一季部門煤炭銷量為 1,190 萬噸。本季,PRB 部門的已實現煤炭收入為每噸 14.39 美元,現金成本為每噸 13.64 美元,與前一季每噸 13.62 美元的現金成本大致一致。

  • Due to the current conflict in the Middle East, we are seeing significant increases in diesel prices. While there was a limited impact of higher diesel prices in Q1, we expect it to weigh on our PRB margins in the future periods if these elevated prices continue.

    由於目前中東衝突,我們看到柴油價格大幅上升。雖然第一季較高柴油價格的影響有限,但若這些高檔價格持續,我們預期未來期間將對 PRB 的利潤率造成壓力。

  • Moving to the Core Marine Terminal. The CMT shipped 4.8 million tons during the first quarter of 2026 compared to 5 million tons in Q4 of '25. CMT reported $16 million in adjusted EBITDA in Q1 '26, which was in line with the previous quarter.

    接著談 Core Marine Terminal。CMT 在 2026 年第一季裝運 480 萬噸,較 2025 年第四季的 500 萬噸略低。CMT 在 2026 年第一季的調整後 EBITDA 為 1,600 萬美元,與前一季一致。

  • As a result of our strong financial performance, we were again able to return significant value to our shareholders. As you know, our capital return framework targets the return to stockholders of around 75% of free cash flow, the majority of which will be returned via share repurchases.

    受惠於強勁的財務表現,我們再次得以向股東回饋可觀價值。如各位所知,我們的資本回饋架構目標是將約 75% 的自由現金流回饋給股東,其中大部分將透過庫藏股回購的方式返還。

  • During Q1 '26, we returned $47 million to our shareholders or 85% of free cash flow with $42 million invested in share repurchases and $5 million in the form of dividends. Since the program's inception in February of 2025, we have deployed $292 million via the capital return program.

    在 2026 年第一季,我們向股東回饋 4,700 萬美元,約占自由現金流的 85%,其中 4,200 萬美元用於股票回購,500 萬美元以股利形式發放。自 2025 年 2 月該計畫啟動以來,我們已透過資本回饋計畫投入 2.92 億美元。

  • Of that total, $266 million has been used to repurchase approximately 7% of the company's shares outstanding as of the program's inception. Now that the operating platform is at full strength, we expect strong shareholder returns to continue.

    在上述總額中,2.66 億美元用於回購約占計畫啟動時公司流通在外股數約 7% 的股份。如今營運平台已全面恢復強勁,我們預期強勁的股東回報將持續。

  • Now let me turn the call over to Mitesh to provide the marketing and financial updates.

    現在我把通話交給 Mitesh,請他提供行銷與財務更新。

  • Mitesh Kumar Thakkar - President, Chief Financial Officer

    Mitesh Kumar Thakkar - President, Chief Financial Officer

  • Thank you, Jimmy, and good morning, everyone. Let me start by providing an update on our financial performance. This morning, we reported solid first quarter financial results. For 1Q '26, we reported net income of $21 million or $0.41 per diluted share and adjusted EBITDA of $180 million compared to a net loss of $79 million and adjusted EBITDA of $103 million in 4Q '25 due to a strong contribution from our metallurgical coal platform.

    謝謝你,Jimmy,各位早安。我先就財務表現提供更新。今天上午,我們公布了穩健的第一季財務成果。2026 年第一季,我們的淨利為 2,100 萬美元,或稀釋後每股 0.41 美元;調整後 EBITDA 為 1.80 億美元。相較之下,2025 年第四季因冶金煤平台貢獻強勁,我們當季為淨損 7,900 萬美元、調整後 EBITDA 為 1.03 億美元。

  • In the quarter, we spent $73 million on capital expenditures and generated $56 million in free cash flow, which was impacted by $52 million of negative working capital changes, including the timing impact of the [45X] tax credit accrual versus cash benefit. At the end of the first quarter, we had total liquidity of $935 million, including $413 million in unrestricted cash and cash equivalents.

    本季我們資本支出為 7,300 萬美元,並產生 5,600 萬美元自由現金流;自由現金流受到 5,200 萬美元營運資金變動為負的影響,其中包含 [45X] 稅額抵免應計數與現金受益之間的時間差影響。第一季末,我們的總流動性為 9.35 億美元,其中包含 4.13 億美元不受限制的現金及約當現金。

  • Now let me update you on the marketing front. Global energy markets have been quite volatile in recent months given the ongoing Middle East conflict. On the metallurgical export front, the threat of a global economic downturn caused by the conflict continues to broadly weigh on demand in these markets. Counterbalancing that fact, we are also seeing some challenges on the supply side.

    接著更新行銷面。由於中東衝突持續,近幾個月全球能源市場波動相當劇烈。在冶金煤出口方面,衝突可能引發全球經濟下行的威脅,持續在整體上壓抑這些市場的需求。與此同時,我們也看到供給端出現一些挑戰,對上述情況形成抵銷。

  • The closure of the Strait of Hormuz is having a significant impact on diesel supplies into Australia and could lead to fuel rationing measures potentially reducing coal supplies. Those cost pressures come on the heels of heavy rainfall-related supply disruptions in Australia earlier this year. As a result, Australian PLV benchmark prices have remained elevated, and we continue to position Core to capitalize on that fact.

    荷姆茲海峽的關閉正對澳洲柴油供應造成重大影響,並可能導致燃料配給措施,進而可能降低煤炭供應。這些成本壓力是在今年稍早澳洲因豪雨造成供應中斷之後接踵而來。因此,澳洲 PLV 基準價格仍維持在高檔,我們也持續讓 Core 做好布局以把握這一點。

  • In contrast, the international thermal markets are benefiting from energy supply disruptions and fuel switching tailwinds due to disrupted oil and gas flows through the Strait of Hormuz. There is a view that European natural gas prices will remain elevated this summer to incentivize gas to coal switching to allow Europe to shore up its natural gas inventories ahead of the winter.

    相較之下,國際動力煤市場正受惠於能源供應中斷,以及因荷姆茲海峽油氣流量受阻所帶來的燃料替代(fuel switching)順風。有一種看法認為,歐洲天然氣價格今年夏季將維持高檔,以促使天然氣轉煤(gas-to-coal switching),讓歐洲能在冬季來臨前補強其天然氣庫存。

  • The EU is also looking into returning legacy coal-fired power plants from capacity reserves to the wholesale markets, which could act to bolster coal demand. Petcoke prices in India have also risen significantly since the start of the year, which is benefiting the demand for our PAMC coal.

    歐盟也正在研究將傳統燃煤電廠從容量備援機制重新回歸批發市場,這可能會起到提振煤炭需求的作用。印度的石油焦(petcoke)價格自年初以來也大幅上漲,這正有利於我們 PAMC 煤炭的需求。

  • In the domestic thermal market, coal consumption declined during the first quarter due to weak natural gas pricing and increased natural gas inventories. However, despite the decline in consumption, power plant coal inventories have reduced since the end of 2025. Longer term, we remain bullish on the outlook for domestic thermal coal demand given the robust planned data center build-outs.

    在國內動力煤市場方面,由於天然氣價格疲弱以及天然氣庫存增加,第一季煤炭消耗量下滑。然而,儘管消耗量下降,電廠煤炭庫存自 2025 年底以來已經降低。長期而言,鑑於規劃中的資料中心建置規模強勁,我們仍看好國內動力煤需求的前景。

  • Recently, the state of Pennsylvania has taken steps to enable the Keystone and Conemaugh coal-fired power plants to continue operating through at least 2032 and potentially much longer. We strongly support this extension, which will boost the availability of affordable and reliable energy here in our backyard. During the quarter, we continued to build momentum on the contracting front, including further expanding our West Elk coal shipments into domestic utilities in the Eastern United States.

    近期,賓夕法尼亞州已採取措施,使 Keystone 與 Conemaugh 燃煤電廠得以至少持續運轉至 2032 年,且可能更久。我們強力支持此一延長,這將提升我們在地區內可負擔且可靠能源的供應。於本季期間,我們在簽約方面持續累積動能,包括進一步擴大我們 West Elk 煤炭對美國東部國內公用事業的出貨。

  • As a reminder, since the fourth quarter, we have had good success with test burning West Elk coal at a number of Eastern power plants and have entered into a term contract. We appreciate the support of our railroad partners in helping unlock this opportunity and enabling reliable delivery into these markets.

    提醒一下,自第四季以來,我們在多座東部電廠進行 West Elk 煤炭試燒方面取得良好成果,並已簽訂一份期約合約。我們感謝鐵路合作夥伴的支持,協助釋放此一機會並確保能可靠地交付至這些市場。

  • Since year-end 2025, our marketing team has made meaningful progress broadening and extending our sales book, securing an additional 11.5 million tons of contracted volume through 2028 at attractive prices. Building on that long-term foundation, we have also strengthened our near-term position for 2026 across each of our mine segments.

    自 2025 年底以來,我們的行銷團隊在拓展並延長銷售合約組合方面取得顯著進展,以具吸引力的價格額外鎖定至 2028 年的 1,150 萬噸簽約量。在此長期基礎之上,我們也強化了 2026 年在各礦區分部的短期部位。

  • Now let me provide an update on our outlook for 2026. On the guidance front, we are generally maintaining our guidance levels as indicated in the earnings release with the exception of our segment level sold positions. In the High CV Thermal segment, we added 5.6 million tons to our sold position, bringing our total contracted volume to 29.1 million tons.

    接下來我更新我們對 2026 年的展望。在指引方面,除各分部已售部位外,我們大致維持如財報新聞稿所示的指引水準。在高熱值動力煤(High CV Thermal)分部,我們將已售部位增加 560 萬噸,使總簽約量達到 2,910 萬噸。

  • The High CV Thermal segment is now 94% contracted at the midpoint of the guidance range and average coal revenue on the committed and collar tons is projected to be $57.85 per ton. For the Metallurgical segment, we added 1.6 million tons to our sold position, bringing the segment to 8.3 million coking tons contracted for 2026 with approximately 3.8 million tons priced at an expected average coal revenue of $122.40 per ton. For the PRB segment, our contracted position now stands at approximately 48 million tons at an expected average coal revenue of $14.20 per ton.

    高熱值動力煤分部在指引區間中點下目前已簽約 94%,已承諾與設有領口(collar)之噸數的平均煤炭收入預估為每噸 57.85 美元。冶金煤分部方面,我們將已售部位增加 160 萬噸,使該分部 2026 年已簽約焦煤噸數達 830 萬噸,其中約 380 萬噸已定價,預期平均煤炭收入為每噸 122.40 美元。PRB 分部方面,我們目前簽約部位約為 4,800 萬噸,預期平均煤炭收入為每噸 14.20 美元。

  • Lastly, on the cash SG&A front, we had, as expected, some residual integration-related costs in Q1, but expect those costs to phase out as we progress through the year. Finally, let me provide a quick update on our Core innovations group, which has been extremely busy growing our capabilities to support the aerospace and defense industries.

    最後,在現金 SG&A(銷售、一般及行政費用)方面,如預期所示,我們在第一季仍有一些併購整合相關的殘餘成本,但預期這些成本將隨著年度推進而逐步消退。最後,我也快速更新一下我們的 Core innovations 團隊;該團隊一直非常忙碌,持續擴充能力以支援航太與國防產業。

  • During the first part of 2026, we completed a 30% expansion of our manufacturing facility in Triadelphia, West Virginia and spent $8 million on acquiring Sawyer Composite in Fort Worth, Texas to further accelerate our growth and elevate our profile in the aerospace supply chain.

    在 2026 年前半段,我們完成了位於西維吉尼亞州 Triadelphia 的製造設施 30% 擴建,並投入 800 萬美元收購位於德州沃斯堡(Fort Worth)的 Sawyer Composite,以進一步加速成長並提升我們在航太供應鏈中的能見度。

  • With these moves, we have built upon our coal-based C4 seam materials business to now become a full-service provider of high-performance materials, tooling, parts and assemblies to meet the growing needs of our nation's aerospace and defense sector.

    透過這些舉措,我們在以煤基 C4 煤層材料業務為基礎之上,現已成為提供高性能材料、工裝(tooling)、零件與組件的一站式服務供應商,以滿足我國航太與國防部門日益成長的需求。

  • Between our West Virginia and Texas locations, our Aerospace venture now has 75,000 square feet of manufacturing space, 80 employees and serves more than 40 customers, including many of the top defense primes. We see a lot of opportunities for continued growth in this business.

    在西維吉尼亞與德州兩地之間,我們的航太事業目前擁有 75,000 平方英尺的製造空間、80 名員工,並服務超過 40 家客戶,其中包括許多頂尖國防主承包商。我們看到這項業務仍有許多持續成長的機會。

  • Now let me pass it back to Jimmy for some closing remarks before we open the call for Q&A.

    接下來在我們開放問答之前,我把時間交回給 Jimmy 做一些結語。

  • James Brock - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer

    James Brock - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer

  • Thanks, Mitesh. As we head into the second quarter and beyond, there are a few key areas of focus. First, we will continue to identify best practices across our operations while sustaining our safety-driven culture. Second, I am optimistic about our cost outcomes in the High CV Thermal and metallurgical segments, with both PAMC longwalls out of the tough mining conditions we saw in Q1 of '26, power prices normalizing and Leer transitioning to the North reserves, we expect our cost to improve relative to the first quarter. Third, we are actively pursuing insurance recoveries from the Leer South fire event.

    謝謝你,Mitesh。隨著我們進入第二季及之後,有幾個關鍵重點。第一,我們將持續在各項營運中辨識最佳實務,同時維持以安全為導向的文化。第二,我對高熱值動力煤與冶金煤分部的成本結果感到樂觀;隨著 PAMC 兩個長壁面已走出我們在 2026 年第一季所見的艱困採礦條件、電力價格趨於正常化,以及 Leer 轉向 North 儲量區,我們預期成本相較第一季將有所改善。第三,我們正積極就 Leer South 火災事件尋求保險理賠。

  • We are pleased with the results of Q1 '26 as they mark the first quarter after the merger with all our assets fully operational. I believe we have just scratched the surface with our capabilities, both operationally and financially.

    我們對 2026 年第一季的結果感到滿意,因為這是合併後、且我們所有資產全面運轉的第一個季度。我相信無論在營運或財務面,我們的能力都才剛剛展露一角。

  • Going forward, we will focus on our controllables as the markets remain dynamic, given the global economic uncertainty. Our high-rank coals, however, continue to receive strong demand as we shift focus to the most advantageous market for our products. Throughout our operations, we continue to focus on cost-saving measures during this market uncertainty, and we fully anticipate carrying this positive momentum throughout the rest of the year.

    展望未來,在全球經濟不確定性下市場仍然多變,我們將聚焦於可控因素。然而,隨著我們把重心轉向對我們產品最有利的市場,我們的高階煤種仍持續獲得強勁需求。在整體營運上,面對此一市場不確定性,我們持續專注於節省成本的措施,並完全預期將這股正向動能延續至今年剩餘時間。

  • Finally, let me finish by recognizing our employees. Throughout last year, they worked tirelessly to integrate and develop Core Natural Resources into what it is today, a premier world-class company. Throughout 2025, the teams believed in the vision as we push to restart the Leer South longwall and focused on identifying best practices.

    最後,我要向我們的員工致敬。去年一年,他們不懈努力整合並打造 Core Natural Resources 成為今日的樣貌——一家頂尖、世界級的公司。在 2025 年期間,團隊相信這個願景,推動重啟 Leer South 長壁面,並專注於辨識最佳實務。

  • We are accustomed to navigating the cyclical nature of the coal markets, and we will continue to manage our costs while focusing on our core values of safety and compliance, continuous improvement and financial performance. With that, I will hand the call back over to the operator to begin the Q&A portion of our call.

    我們已習慣於應對煤炭市場的循環性特徵,並將持續在管理成本的同時,聚焦於我們的核心價值:安全與合規、持續改善以及財務績效。接下來,我將把電話交回給接線員,開始本次電話會議的問答環節。

  • Operator, can you please provide the instructions to our callers?

    接線員,請您向來電者提供操作說明,好嗎?

  • Operator

    Operator

  • (Operator Instructions)

    (接線員操作說明)

  • George Eadie, UBS.

    George Eadie,瑞銀(UBS)。

  • George Eadie - Analyst

    George Eadie - Analyst

  • Yeah, good day, James. Thanks for the call today Firstly, just on the High CV segment, can you remind me the sensitivity of that 28.5 million to the API2 price given I think there was sort of 3 million tons or 4 million tons pegged to the API2 benchmark?

    是的,James,您好。謝謝今天的電話會議。首先,關於高熱值(High CV)分部,鑑於我記得大概有 300 萬噸或 400 萬噸是掛鉤 API2 基準,您能否提醒我那 2,850 萬噸對 API2 價格的敏感度?

  • Robert Braithwaite - Senior Vice President, Marketing & Sales

    Robert Braithwaite - Senior Vice President, Marketing & Sales

  • Sure, George. This is Bob. So for the balance of the year, we have left to sell Q2 through Q4. It's just around 3 million tons is linked to API2. We also have a little bit, call it, 300,000 tons linked to High Vol B as well. The rest is fixed price.

    當然,George。我是 Bob。就今年剩餘期間而言,我們尚待銷售的是第二季到第四季。大約有 300 萬噸與 API2 連動。我們也有一小部分——大概 30 萬噸——與 High Vol B 連動。其餘則為固定價格。

  • And right now, the sensitivity is roughly about $0.07 a ton across the segment. And that's assuming about $120 API2 price. Right now, API2 is around $110, $115, but we expect that to continue to be volatile, as you know, what's going on in the Middle East.

    而目前的敏感度大約是整個分部每噸 0.07 美元。這是以 API2 價格約 120 美元為假設。現在 API2 大約在 110、115 美元左右,但如你所知,考量中東局勢,我們預期它仍將持續波動。

  • George Eadie - Analyst

    George Eadie - Analyst

  • Yeah. Thanks. And then just on the tons contracted for 2027 for each business segment, can you just remind me what percent of the business is contracted next year, please?

    了解,謝謝。接著,關於各業務分部 2027 年已簽約的噸數,您能否提醒我明年各分部大概有多少比例已簽約?

  • Robert Braithwaite - Senior Vice President, Marketing & Sales

    Robert Braithwaite - Senior Vice President, Marketing & Sales

  • Yeah. So on the High CV side, we're sitting here roughly, give or take, around 50% of our volume contracted. And to be honest with you, if you look at PAMC and West Elk, it's basically 50-50 in terms of where we are against what our expected production is going to be in 2027.

    可以。所以在高熱值(High CV)這邊,我們目前大約(上下些微差異)有約 50% 的量已簽約。坦白說,如果你看 PAMC 和 West Elk,就我們目前相對於 2027 年預期產量的進度而言,基本上是 50 對 50。

  • And the good news for us is we've certainly been able to take advantage of the situation in the Middle East over the last couple of months and lock in some volumes at some attractive pricing when API2 prices were up in that $130, $140 range. So we're not prepared to give exactly what we're looking at pricing-wise, but I can tell you the market, if you look at year-on-year, isn't getting there.

    對我們來說的好消息是,過去幾個月我們確實能夠利用中東局勢,在 API2 價格上到 130、140 美元區間時,以相當具吸引力的價格鎖定一些量。因此我們還不準備提供我們所鎖定價格的確切水準,但我可以告訴你,如果你看年對年,市場並沒有走到那個程度。

  • George Eadie - Analyst

    George Eadie - Analyst

  • Yeah, good. Thanks. And then lastly, Mitesh, sorry if I missed this earlier, but insurance prices, can you remind us the timing and latest on dollars as well there for the rest of the year?

    對,好的。謝謝。最後,Mitesh,不好意思如果我先前漏掉了這點,但保險理賠金額方面,能否也請你再提醒我們一下今年剩餘時間的時點安排與最新進度(以美元計)?

  • Mitesh Kumar Thakkar - President, Chief Financial Officer

    Mitesh Kumar Thakkar - President, Chief Financial Officer

  • Yeah, George, sure. So as you know, the Baltimore bridge claim is settled on the Leer South front, we have submitted our final claims, which indicate a limit loss. The insurance companies are reviewing the claims and going through their internal review and approval process, which could take different times for different insurance companies. However, we are optimistic that we'll start seeing some approvals trickle here in 2Q. In aggregate, I would expect to collect another $100 million in incremental proceeds from insurance.

    好的,George,當然。正如你所知,巴爾的摩大橋的理賠在 Leer South 這邊已經達成和解,我們已提交最終理賠申請,顯示為限額損失(limit loss)。保險公司正在審核理賠,並進行其內部審查與核准流程,不同保險公司的所需時間可能不同。不過,我們樂觀預期在第二季會開始陸續看到一些核准。整體而言,我預期可再收取約 1 億美元的增量保險理賠款。

  • George Eadie - Analyst

    George Eadie - Analyst

  • Okay. That's super helpful. Thanks, [James].

    好的。這非常有幫助。謝謝,[James]。

  • Mitesh Kumar Thakkar - President, Chief Financial Officer

    Mitesh Kumar Thakkar - President, Chief Financial Officer

  • Thanks, George.

    謝謝你,George。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Nick Giles, B. Riley Securities.

    Nick Giles,B. Riley Securities。

  • Nick Giles - Analyst

    Nick Giles - Analyst

  • Yeah. Thanks, operator. Good morning, everyone. I just wanted to go back to High CV cash costs, obviously elevated here in 1Q, but you've maintained the guide. Can you just help us understand kind of the cadence of those cost improvements throughout the year, kind of sensitivity to electricity prices and then how much West Elk is contributing today?

    好的。謝謝,接線員。各位早安。我想回到高 CV 現金成本的問題,第一季顯然偏高,但你們仍維持指引。能否協助我們理解今年成本改善的節奏、對電價的敏感度,以及目前 West Elk 的貢獻有多少?

  • James Brock - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer

    James Brock - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer

  • Hi, Nick, it's Jimmy. Yeah, we left our guidance alone when you look on the cost side of it because we had some things in Q1 that I feel like it's going to normalize, and we'll be back on track in Q2 and for the remainder of the year.

    嗨,Nick,我是 Jimmy。是的,我們在成本面維持原先指引,因為第一季有一些我認為會回歸正常的因素,我們會在第二季回到正軌,並在今年剩餘時間維持進度。

  • So we had two of our longwalls that's in the Pennsylvania mining complex that were in sand rock intrusions. We've had those before. We've been able to dive down underneath them. These were a little different. They struggled. So we don't have that. Both those longwalls are out of that now.

    我們在賓州採礦園區有兩個長壁工作面遇到砂岩侵入(sand rock intrusions)。以前也遇過,我們也能往下切入避開。但這次有點不同,推進上比較吃力。現在這兩個長壁都已經脫離那段了。

  • And then we also had -- as you stated earlier, we did have abnormal power pricing that hit us in Q1 that we think will normalize and come down here as the weather changes. It was mostly due to that Arctic blast, as we said in our comments.

    另外,如你先前提到的,我們第一季確實遭遇了異常的電力價格,我們認為隨著天氣轉變會回歸正常並下降。主要是因為那波北極寒流,正如我們在評論中所說。

  • And then, of course, when you're going through those sand rock and rolls like that, it requires more supplies to mine the coal, higher bit pricing, you use more of those, you wear those out. So we think we're going to be in a really good spot there.

    當然,穿越那種砂岩與褶皺(rolls)時,需要更多耗材來採煤,鑽頭價格更高、用量更多、磨耗也更快。所以我們認為接下來會處在很好的狀態。

  • Looking at West Elk, West Elk is running great. There was no far in West Elk. It's just the trains of us moving the coal away, and that has certainly improved. We've been working with our rail partners, and we improved. But what happened to West Elk, they couldn't run at 100% capacity because we didn't have the space in our inventory.

    再看 West Elk,West Elk 運作得非常好。West Elk 本身沒有問題,主要是我們把煤運走的列車運輸,而那確實已經改善。我們一直與鐵路合作夥伴合作,也有所提升。但 West Elk 當時無法以 100% 產能運轉,因為我們的庫存沒有空間。

  • So we think that's going to levelize and go away. So I really think -- I didn't want to raise the cost guidance. I believe that we're going to be back on track and be in that and even have some improved marks for the remainder of the year.

    所以我們認為這會趨於平衡並消失。因此我真的認為——我不想上調成本指引。我相信我們會回到正軌,落在指引區間內,甚至在今年剩餘時間還可能有一些改善。

  • Mitesh Kumar Thakkar - President, Chief Financial Officer

    Mitesh Kumar Thakkar - President, Chief Financial Officer

  • Yeah. And just, Nick, following up on your question on sensitivity and just to give you some parameters around it, right? So if you think about PJM West power prices, I think in months like January, we were over $100 in power prices. Right now, we are already sub $50.

    是的。Nick,補充你關於敏感度的問題,給你一些參數作參考,對吧?如果你看 PJM West 的電價,我想像 1 月那樣的月份,我們電價超過 100 美元。現在我們已經低於 50 美元。

  • And as you look at the curve, I think the curve is around that number. The summer months are a little bit higher and then fall, it comes back again. But just from a sensitivity perspective, about $1 megawatt change could be around $750,000 for us, just to keep that in mind.

    再看遠期曲線,我認為曲線大致就在那個水準。夏季月份會稍高一些,到了秋季又會回落。但就敏感度而言,每 1 美元/兆瓦時(megawatt)變動,對我們的影響大約是 75 萬美元,請記住這點。

  • Nick Giles - Analyst

    Nick Giles - Analyst

  • Thank you, both. That's really helpful. Maybe along a similar vein in the PRB, you maintained the guide. I was curious on just what enables you to do that. And then if we were to assume that diesel prices were to remain elevated, any sense on how much kind of upward cost pressure that would create in the PRB? Thanks.

    謝謝兩位,這很有幫助。也許沿著類似脈絡,在 PRB 方面你們也維持指引。我好奇是什麼讓你們能做到這點?另外,如果我們假設柴油價格維持在高檔,對 PRB 會造成多大的上行成本壓力?謝謝。

  • James Brock - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer

    James Brock - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer

  • I think when you look at PRB, there's a couple of things there. Number one, we lost a couple of weeks of production out there with the connecting link that was on the dragline boom, which obviously hurt the volumes a little bit.

    我想看 PRB 的話,有幾件事。第一,我們那邊因為拉鏟(dragline)吊臂上的連接件(connecting link)問題,損失了幾週的產量,這顯然讓出貨量受到一些影響。

  • And then we're kind of in shoulder season out there now as well. And then we're also looking at other cost incentives out there, such as optimizing our truck fleet, looking at what we can do with the schedules that we're working. And the team out there is working really hard to bring that back within the guidance.

    另外,我們現在也正處於那邊的淡旺季交替期(shoulder season)。同時我們也在看其他成本激勵措施,例如最佳化卡車車隊、檢視我們的排班能做什麼調整。那邊的團隊非常努力,想把成本拉回到指引範圍內。

  • And I think if you add those volumes back, if diesel prices do sort of normalize or reduce some, I think we'll be right back on track where our cost guidance is and even an opportunity to improve that. So it's something we continue to work on, Nick, and I have a pretty high degree of confidence that we're going to reach that.

    我認為如果把那些產量加回來,且柴油價格若能回歸正常或稍微下降,我們就會回到成本指引所設定的軌道上,甚至有機會再改善。所以我們會持續努力,Nick,我對達成目標有相當高的信心。

  • Nick Giles - Analyst

    Nick Giles - Analyst

  • Good to hear. Guys, I appreciate the update. I'll jump back in the queue and continue, best of luck.

    很高興聽到。各位,感謝更新。我先回到提問隊列,祝一切順利。

  • James Brock - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer

    James Brock - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer

  • Thanks.

    謝謝。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Nathan Martin, The Benchmark Company.

    Nathan Martin,The Benchmark Company。

  • Nathan Martin - Equity Analyst

    Nathan Martin - Equity Analyst

  • Thanks, operator. Good morning, everyone.

    謝謝,接線員。各位早安。

  • James Brock - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer

    James Brock - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer

  • Good morning, Nathan.

    早安,Nathan。

  • Nathan Martin - Equity Analyst

    Nathan Martin - Equity Analyst

  • Bob, maybe just going back to George's initial question. As we look at '26 in the High CV Thermal segment, you guys have 28.5 million, I think, million tons committed in price. Can we just get a breakdown of that between PAMC and West Elk and any sensitivities there? I think you said API2 was $0.07 off a 120 basis. I just want to make sure.

    Bob,回到 George 一開始的問題。看 2026 年高 CV 動力煤(High CV Thermal)部門,你們有 2,850 萬(我想是)萬噸已承諾且已定價。能否把這部分在 PAMC 與 West Elk 之間做個拆分,並說明相關敏感度?我記得你說 API2 是在 120 個基點的基礎上少了 0.07 美元,我只是想確認一下。

  • Robert Braithwaite - Senior Vice President, Marketing & Sales

    Robert Braithwaite - Senior Vice President, Marketing & Sales

  • Yes, that's correct. And right now, of the 29.1 million tons in total, 23.4 million is PMC, 5.7 million is West Elk. West Elk contributed 1.1 million tons toward the sales line in Q1. So we expect, as Jimmy mentioned, as our railroad partners are certainly doing better today than they were in Q1, we expect that volume to start increasing as we move forward throughout this quarter and the balance of the year to get to that 5.7 million ton level.

    是的,沒錯。目前在總計 2,910 萬噸中,2,340 萬噸是 PMC,570 萬噸是 West Elk。West Elk 在第一季對銷售量貢獻了 110 萬噸。因此我們預期,如 Jimmy 提到的,隨著我們的鐵路合作夥伴目前的表現確實比第一季好,我們預期該量會在本季接下來以及今年剩餘時間逐步增加,以達到 570 萬噸的水準。

  • I will tell you, too, based on that, we're being somewhat cautious since we're only in April right now or May, I should say. But there's still certainly some opportunities out there. The domestic market certainly is remaining somewhat strong, even though gas prices are down, we're still seeing a strong level of trains coming in, and offtake.

    另外我也想說,基於這點,我們會稍微保守一些,因為現在才 4 月,或應該說 5 月。但外部仍然有一些機會。即使天然氣價格下跌,國內市場仍維持一定強度,我們仍看到有相當強的列車進站與提貨(offtake)水準。

  • And then in India as well, they're forecasting a strong El Nino, if that does happen, it will delay -- likely delay the monsoon season. And we're seeing, I'd say, more inquiries than we typically would this time of year. So very encouraging there, and we'll certainly look to place as much volume as we can and get as much volume out of PAMC as we can.

    另外在印度,他們預測會有強烈的聖嬰現象(El Nino);如果真的發生,可能會延後——很可能延後季風季節。我們看到的詢問量,我會說比一年中這個時點通常會看到的還多。所以這點非常令人鼓舞,我們也會努力盡可能配置更多量,並盡可能從 PAMC 出更多量。

  • So 5.7 million tons at West Elk, we're not sold out, but we're very close. So all the balance of the volume left to sell is at PAMC. And again, encouraging that the fact that where prices are today, I will tell you that those specific prices today are above where our guidance is. So there's a chance that we could see some improvement as we move forward. The volume that you're seeing that is not priced is linked to Newcastle. That's some of our business we have into Asia out of our West Elk mine.

    所以 West Elk 的 570 萬噸,我們還沒完全賣光,但已非常接近。因此剩餘尚待銷售的量都在 PAMC。再者,令人鼓舞的是,以目前的價格水準來看,我可以告訴你,這些特定價格高於我們指引中的假設。因此隨著後續推進,我們有機會看到一些改善。你看到尚未定價的量是連結到 Newcastle 指數的,那是我們 West Elk 礦對亞洲的一部分業務。

  • Nathan Martin - Equity Analyst

    Nathan Martin - Equity Analyst

  • Okay. Great. Bob, that's helpful. And then maybe just sticking with West Elk for a second. You guys talked about it last quarter, talked about it a little bit now. You're moving some domestic tons to power plants in the East. It sounds like that was mainly just a transportation problem, and I think you just mentioned inventory space. Any additional thoughts there? One of your peers also talking about exporting some more tons out of the West Coast. Maybe any thoughts you guys have as far as that goes as well.

    好的。很好。Bob,這很有幫助。接著再談一下 West Elk。你們上季提過,這次也稍微提到,你們把一些國內噸數運到東部的電廠。聽起來主要是運輸問題,我想你剛也提到庫存空間。對此還有其他想法嗎?你們的一位同業也在談從西岸多出口一些噸數。你們對這方面是否也有一些看法?

  • Robert Braithwaite - Senior Vice President, Marketing & Sales

    Robert Braithwaite - Senior Vice President, Marketing & Sales

  • Yes. So for West Elk, I'm very encouraged by what we've seen from our domestic customers in the East. A lot of overlap there with our PAMC coal as well. So I could tell you to date, we have one long-term contract in place. We're working on several others. The coal has been well accepted.

    是的。就 West Elk 而言,我對我們在東部的國內客戶所展現出的情況感到非常鼓舞。那裡也與我們的 PAMC 煤有相當多的重疊。所以我可以告訴你,截至目前,我們已經有一份長期合約到位。我們也正在推進另外幾份。這款煤的接受度很高。

  • Traditionally, it wasn't really a core market for the legacy Arch folks. But today, I'd tell you it is as we try to ramp that mine up to 6 million tons as we move forward. On the West Coast, we are moving West Elk through the West Coast out of Long Beach today. We anticipate that continuing.

    傳統上,這並不是原 Arch 團隊的核心市場。但今天,隨著我們往前推進、嘗試把那座礦場提升到 600 萬噸產量,我會告訴你它已經成為核心市場之一。在西岸方面,我們目前是透過長灘(Long Beach)把 West Elk 從西岸運出去。我們預期這會持續下去。

  • And then -- in terms of additional West Coast capacity or additional export capacity off the West Coast, we're certainly looking into that for some opportunity to move some of our PRB coal as well. I know Oakland has been talked about by many. We're certainly in discussions there and then also some potential export capacity through Canada as well.

    另外——就額外的西岸產能或額外的西岸出口產能而言,我們確實也在研究相關機會,以便也能運出部分 PRB 煤。我知道奧克蘭(Oakland)已被很多人討論過。我們當然也在那方面進行洽談,此外也在評估透過加拿大的一些潛在出口產能。

  • James Brock - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer

    James Brock - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer

  • Yes. Nate, we look at -- as far as export and moving coal, we look at all the ports. And obviously, when you have to start looking at how long the vessels set there for demurrage, you look at the travel distance and everything else, we try to -- just like we run to the market, we try to do the same thing with the ports. We try to go out the ones that are most economical for us.

    是的。Nate,就出口與運煤而言,我們會評估所有港口。很明顯,當你開始考量船舶在那裡等待所產生的滯期費(demurrage)、航程距離以及其他各種因素時,我們會——就像我們把煤賣到市場一樣——在港口選擇上也採取同樣做法。我們會盡量選擇對我們最具經濟效益的港口出貨。

  • And obviously, we prefer to go out of our own. But I mean, we certainly look at all those West Coast ports, Long Beach as well as we even look at Vancouver and some of those. Any way we can move the coal that makes economic sense, we certainly look at all of those.

    而且很明顯,我們更偏好使用自有的港口。不過我的意思是,我們確實也會看所有那些西岸港口,包括長灘;我們甚至也會看溫哥華(Vancouver)以及其中一些港口。只要能以符合經濟效益的方式把煤運出去,我們當然都會納入評估。

  • Nathan Martin - Equity Analyst

    Nathan Martin - Equity Analyst

  • Got it. Appreciate that. And then, Jimmy, maybe just one more while I have you. Any comments or thoughts on the administration's Section 303 determinations that were passed as it applies to helping the coal supply chains in baseload power gen?

    了解。感謝說明。然後,Jimmy,趁我還在線上再問一個。對於政府通過的第 303 條(Section 303)裁定(determinations),就其在協助基載發電(baseload power gen)的煤炭供應鏈方面,你有什麼評論或看法嗎?

  • James Brock - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer

    James Brock - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer

  • Yeah. I'll start out with that and then turn it over to Deck to follow up on that. But we are very happy with the administration. I mean, particularly their ability to extend the life of some of these power plants. And we think it's certainly going to be needed if you look at the power, which has been basically flat for many, many years leading up to, say, 2024. But with the increase that everybody is projecting on power gen alone, we feel pretty good about what the administration has done to this point.

    有的。我先回答,然後再請 Deck 補充。不過我們對政府非常滿意。我的意思是,特別是他們延長部分電廠壽命的能力。我們認為這絕對是必要的,因為如果你看電力需求,在過去很多很多年一直基本持平,直到比如說 2024 年。但隨著大家對發電端需求增長的預測,我們對政府目前為止所做的事情感到相當樂觀。

  • And I always say they can't solve the problems for us, but they certainly can give a solution to where we can work on those and they've been very, very positive as far as coal goes. I know President Trump, he brought back the National Coal Council and a lot of positive momentum coming out of the administration and Deck and team are working with them every day to make sure that we take full benefit of everything that we get out of there.

    我常說,他們不可能替我們解決所有問題,但他們確實能提供一個解方,讓我們可以在此基礎上去處理,而他們在煤炭方面一直非常、非常正面。我知道川普總統讓國家煤炭委員會(National Coal Council)重新運作,政府端也帶來很多正向動能;Deck 和團隊每天都在與他們合作,確保我們能充分受益於我們從那裡獲得的一切。

  • And with that, I'll let Deck add some comments.

    接下來我就讓 Deck 再補充一些評論。

  • Deck Slone - Senior Vice President - Strategy and Public Policy

    Deck Slone - Senior Vice President - Strategy and Public Policy

  • Yes. Yes, thanks for that. And look, I totally agree with Jimmy. This administration is hugely supportive. And there are a whole range of areas where they're trying to be helpful. Look, I would say with the 2O2(c) authority, which is preventing some of these retirements prematurely of coal plants. We've got five 2O2(c) orders in place right now. In aggregate, those plants used 10 million tons of coal last year. I think really clear then that they're needed. If they were running at that level last year, that capacity is needed.

    是的。是的,謝謝。你看,我完全同意 Jimmy 的看法。這屆政府非常支持我們,而且他們在很多領域都試圖提供協助。我想說,就 2O2(c) 授權而言,它正在防止部分燃煤電廠過早退役。我們目前有 5 份 2O2(c) 命令在執行中。合計來看,這些電廠去年使用了 1,000 萬噸煤。我認為這很清楚地表明它們是必要的。如果它們去年以那樣的水準運轉,那麼那部分產能就是需要的。

  • And we've talked about the fact that as we look out now, suddenly, there's been an inflection in terms of the outlook for US power demand. The numbers are -- there are a range of numbers, but one of the ones we've been looking at recently, grid strategies is suggesting that over the next five years, you could see a 3.7% growth rate in US power demand. In that scenario, this administration is getting the fact that you have to have these coal plants.

    我們也談到,當我們現在往外看,美國電力需求前景突然出現了拐點。數字——有一系列不同的估算,但我們最近在看的其中一個是 Grid Strategies 的推估:未來五年,美國電力需求可能出現 3.7% 的成長率。在那種情境下,這屆政府理解你必須保有這些燃煤電廠。

  • So that's hugely helpful. I think also addressing just a raft of regulations really that were designed to drive some of these coal plants into closure, this administration is trying to unwind those and doing really a superb job.

    所以這非常有幫助。我也認為,政府正在處理一大堆原本設計用來推動部分燃煤電廠關閉的法規;這屆政府正試圖把那些法規鬆綁/撤回,而且做得非常出色。

  • And the goal there is not just to keep the plants open, but to allow for reinvestment to make those plants young again because you can replace all the component parts. So that's useful. And obviously, as you know, look, the royalty rate reduction in the PRB has been helpful to us, and I think bodes well for the outlook there for a healthy industry in the PRB, the 45X production credit.

    而其目標不只是讓電廠維持運轉,也要允許再投資,讓那些電廠「回春」,因為你可以更換所有零組件。因此這很有用。當然,如你所知,PRB 的權利金稅率下調對我們有幫助,我也認為這對 PRB 產業維持健康的前景是個好兆頭,還有 45X 生產抵免(production credit)。

  • So look, couldn't be more pleased with where this administration is going, and we're going to continue to work with them. We talked about the unlocking of export. That's another area where this administration is highly focused on finding ways to liberate more tons, get more tons into the seaborne market. So a range of areas where we're getting good support.

    所以你看,我們對這屆政府的方向再滿意不過了,我們也會持續與他們合作。我們談到出口解鎖(unlocking of export),那也是另一個這屆政府高度聚焦的領域:尋找方法釋放更多噸數,把更多噸數送進海運市場(seaborne market)。因此在多個面向上,我們都獲得了良好的支持。

  • James Brock - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer

    James Brock - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer

  • The administration has certainly given us a lot of resources to work on our problems that we have. So very, very appreciative and very thankful and very involved, quite frankly, with the administration.

    政府確實給了我們很多資源,讓我們可以用來處理我們面臨的問題。所以我們非常、非常感激,也非常感謝,而且坦白說,我們也非常積極地參與並與政府合作。

  • Deck Slone - Senior Vice President - Strategy and Public Policy

    Deck Slone - Senior Vice President - Strategy and Public Policy

  • Guys, appreciate the time. I'll pass it along. Best of luck going forward.

    各位,感謝撥冗。我就把時間交給下一位。祝接下來一切順利。

  • Nathan Martin - Equity Analyst

    Nathan Martin - Equity Analyst

  • Thank you.a

    謝謝。a

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Matthew Key, Texas Capital.

    Matthew Key,Texas Capital。

  • Matthew Key - Analyst

    Matthew Key - Analyst

  • Good morning, everyone, and thanks for taking my questions. In regards to the inflationary cost pressures, most notably diesel, while you obviously didn't raise your cost guidance. I was wondering if there's anything you could do to help manage those pressures such as hedging diesel or something like that?

    各位早安,謝謝回答我的問題。關於通膨帶來的成本壓力,尤其是柴油,雖然你們顯然沒有上調成本指引。我想請問是否有任何措施可以協助管理這些壓力,例如對柴油進行避險之類的?

  • Mitesh Kumar Thakkar - President, Chief Financial Officer

    Mitesh Kumar Thakkar - President, Chief Financial Officer

  • Yeah. Matt, good question. And there's an additional disclosure in our 10-Q that we did hedge some diesel prior to the war starting in the Gulf area. I think we were on a path to hedge a significant portion of our cost on the diesel front, but there was a sudden spike, and we pulled back a little bit because the volatility was just too much to justify hedging at that point. Things are settling down a little bit, and we'll continue to look and evaluate it.

    是的。Matt,問得好。我們在 10-Q 裡也有額外揭露:在海灣地區戰事爆發前,我們確實做了一些柴油避險。我想我們原本正朝著對柴油端成本避險相當大一部分的方向前進,但後來出現突然飆升,我們就稍微收手,因為當時波動太大,難以合理化在那個時間點做避險。現在情況稍微穩定一些,我們會持續觀察並評估。

  • As you can imagine, the curve is in backwardation again now, which is great. And we'll continue to evaluate how we layer in those hedges to make sure that there is enough cushion between our selling price and the cost of mining.

    如你所想像的,現在曲線又回到逆價差(backwardation),這很好。我們會持續評估如何分批建立那些避險部位,以確保我們的售價與採礦成本之間有足夠的緩衝。

  • Matthew Key - Analyst

    Matthew Key - Analyst

  • Got it. That's helpful, Mitesh. Thank you. And met coal benchmark pricing did improve at least directionally in 1Q '26, still seeing a very wide spread for High-Vol A pricing versus premium low-vol benchmark. I was wondering if you could provide just some color on what you're seeing in the met coal market, specifically as it relates to High Vol A.

    了解。這很有幫助,Mitesh,謝謝你。另外,冶金煤(met coal)基準價格在 2026 年第一季至少在方向上有所改善,但高揮發份 A(High-Vol A)價格相對於優質低揮發份(premium low-vol)基準仍然有非常大的價差。我想請你談談你們在冶金煤市場看到的情況,特別是與 High Vol A 相關的部分。

  • Mitesh Kumar Thakkar - President, Chief Financial Officer

    Mitesh Kumar Thakkar - President, Chief Financial Officer

  • Yeah. I mean, again, we're in a really good position as we announced this morning, 8.3 million tons contracted for the balance for this year. And when you look at where we're at with what we have left to sell, majority of that is High Vol. There's some low vol as well. But I'd say the most encouraging thing, too, is the fact that we have over 30% of our volume this year linked to PLB prices.

    是的。我的意思是,再次強調,我們處於非常有利的位置,正如我們今天早上宣布的,今年剩餘期間我們已簽約 830 萬噸。當你看我們目前的狀況以及還剩下要賣的量,其中大多數是高揮發份;也有一些低揮發份。但我想最令人鼓舞的一點是,今年我們有超過 30% 的銷量是與 PLB 價格連動的。

  • So Asia continues to grow for us, and that's where the growth and demand is. India certainly is growing. But we are seeing some opportunities back in Brazil and also into Europe right now, CBAM being one that is helping the European steel markets. And we're not seeing as much steel dumping into Brazil today as we did last year. So that's encouraging as well.

    因此,亞洲對我們而言持續成長,而成長與需求也在那裡。印度當然在成長。不過我們也看到一些機會回到巴西,以及目前也進入歐洲;CBAM 是其中一個正在幫助歐洲鋼鐵市場的因素。而且我們目前沒有看到像去年那樣大量鋼材傾銷到巴西。所以這也同樣令人鼓舞。

  • So I think those spreads will likely remain for a little bit of time here just for the simple fact that the High Vol is a little bit oversupplied today. But I see that as, again, we start seeing some higher cost operations continue to exit the market, specifically here in the domestic or sitting here in the United States. I think you'll start to see those spreads shrink over time. But the team has done a great job, again, linking over 30% of our index volumes to PLB.

    所以我認為,這些價差很可能還會維持一段時間,原因很簡單:今天高揮發份(High Vol)的供給有點過剩。但我認為,隨著我們再次看到一些成本較高的營運持續退出市場,特別是在國內、也就是在美國這裡,我想你會開始看到這些價差隨時間縮小。不過團隊做得非常好,再次把我們超過30%的指數銷量連結到PLB。

  • James Brock - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer

    James Brock - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer

  • Matt, I would maybe just to echo those views of sort of where the market is. Look, I mean, if you look last year at US exports, they were down around 6 million tons. Australian exports of coking coal down around 6 million tons. So that's 12 million tons.

    Matt,我想我可能只是呼應一下對市場現況的看法。你看,若回顧去年美國出口,大約減少了600萬噸;澳洲的煉焦煤出口也大約減少了600萬噸。所以合計是1,200萬噸。

  • I think there's been a lot of focus on the production that's coming back into the market, but there had been substantial rationalization and step down. So look, I do think that's important. That's an important dynamic there.

    我認為市場一直很關注回到市場的產量,但先前其實已經有相當程度的產能合理化與下修。所以我確實認為這點很重要,這是一個重要的動態。

  • And I would also say, look, there are indications that operational challenges are starting to sort of crop up elsewhere, as you would expect, right? That's typically what happens is 5% to 10% of global supply is experiencing some level of challenge. So while the market remains under pressure, I do think there are counterbalances to, I think that top line story that, oh, there's some capacity that's come back into the market after some outage.

    我也會說,你看,確實有跡象顯示其他地方開始出現一些營運挑戰,這也符合預期,對吧?通常就是這樣:全球供給中約5%到10%會在某種程度上面臨挑戰。所以雖然市場仍承受壓力,但我確實認為存在一些制衡因素,來對沖那種「喔,有些產能在停產後又回到市場」的主線敘事。

  • Matthew Key - Analyst

    Matthew Key - Analyst

  • Got it. I appreciate all that color, and best of luck moving forward.

    了解。很感謝你提供的所有補充資訊,也祝你們接下來一切順利。

  • Mitesh Kumar Thakkar - President, Chief Financial Officer

    Mitesh Kumar Thakkar - President, Chief Financial Officer

  • Thank you.

    謝謝。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • (Operator Instructions)

    (接線員指示)

  • Nick Giles, B. Riley Securities.

    Nick Giles,B. Riley Securities。

  • Nick Giles - Analyst

    Nick Giles - Analyst

  • Yeah, thanks, operator. Thanks for taking my follow up. You kind of answered it there on the met side. But maybe I could just ask, as we try to model out met volumes throughout the course of the year, can you just remind us how many longwall moves you have scheduled, when those are scheduled in both just the Met segment and High CV? Thanks.

    好的,謝謝接線員。謝謝讓我追問。你剛才在冶金煤(met)那邊其實已經部分回答了。不過我想再問一下:當我們嘗試建模全年冶金煤銷量時,你能否提醒我們,你們排定了多少次長壁(longwall)搬遷?以及這些搬遷分別安排在什麼時點(包含冶金煤事業部與高CV)?謝謝。

  • James Brock - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer

    James Brock - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer

  • Yeah. If you look at Q1 that we just finished up, we had four longwall moves there in Q1. In Q2, we have three. We have one at PMC. We have two at our met mines, one at Leer, one at Leer South. And then I think for the remainder of the year, our Q4 is kind of heavy, but we have 13 for the year. So that's pretty much where we are. And Nick, as I've always said, I love longwall moves because that means progress is being made.

    好的。如果看我們剛結束的第一季(Q1),Q1我們有四次長壁搬遷。第二季(Q2)我們有三次:PMC一個;我們的冶金煤礦兩個,一個在Leer,一個在Leer South。然後我想今年剩下的時間,我們第四季(Q4)相對比較密集,但全年合計是13次。大概就是這樣。Nick,而且我一直都說,我喜歡長壁搬遷,因為那代表進度正在推進。

  • Nick Giles - Analyst

    Nick Giles - Analyst

  • Understood. No, I appreciate that, Jimmy. And maybe just on the synergy front, I'm not sure if you provided an update there, but I think of 2026 as one of the first full years that we can see the benefit of the synergies. So what metrics should we be paying attention to? And what should we use as the denominator as we try to measure that progress?

    了解。不,我很感謝,Jimmy。再來可能問一下協同效益(synergy)方面,我不確定你是否有提供更新,但我把2026年視為第一個能完整看到協同效益的年度之一。所以我們應該關注哪些指標?以及在衡量進展時,分母應該用什麼來計算?

  • Mitesh Kumar Thakkar - President, Chief Financial Officer

    Mitesh Kumar Thakkar - President, Chief Financial Officer

  • Yeah. So Nick, again, there are a lot of ways the synergies are playing out. I will say the most obvious one for you to see is on the SG&A side. And if you look at -- I'm going back to 2024, the first full year prior to the merger for both -- the last full year prior to the merger for both the companies, I think the combined company had cash SG&A of about $153 million, excluding any merger-related expenses and stock-based comp, right? And right now, we are guiding to a top end of about $100 million.

    好的。所以Nick,再次說,協同效益有很多種呈現方式。我會說你最容易看到、最明顯的一項是在SG&A端。如果你看——我回到2024年,這是兩家公司合併前的最後一個完整年度——我認為合併前兩家公司合計的現金SG&A大約是1.53億美元,不含任何與合併相關的費用以及股權薪酬,對吧?而目前我們給出的指引上限大約是1億美元。

  • So that tells you that significant progress is being made on the synergy front when it comes to cash SG&A. Similarly, on the marketing side, if you look at the MIBS where we -- they are disclosed as thermal byproduct in our release, given where current met coal prices are on the legacy Arch side, which is mostly their product, you would have realized high 20s kind of a realization on the MIBS.

    所以這告訴你,在現金SG&A方面,協同效益的進展相當顯著。同樣地,在行銷端,如果你看MIBS——在我們的新聞稿中,鑑於目前冶金煤價格水準,我們把它揭露為動力煤副產品(thermal byproduct)——就傳統Arch那邊(主要是他們的產品)而言,你原本在MIBS上大概只能實現二十幾美元(high 20s)的實現價格。

  • We are blending it with some of our Pennsylvania mining complex and some of our other mines, and we have value uplifting it by almost $15 a ton, right? So when you add those pieces together, I think we are significantly ahead on the synergy achievement side. I think what is clouding it a little bit on the marketing front is also overall, met coal prices are just lower, which reduces the value of those synergies.

    我們把它與賓州採礦綜合體以及其他一些礦場的產品進行摻配,並且把每噸價值提升了將近15美元,對吧?所以把這些因素加總起來,我認為我們在協同效益達成方面已明顯超前。我認為在行銷端稍微造成干擾的是,整體而言冶金煤價格就是比較低,這會降低這些協同效益的價值。

  • And we are hoping as those prices normalize, I think you will see more impactful numbers on the synergy front. But even on the High CV Thermal side, as the prices improve, the value of MIBS go up just from blending activity as well.

    我們希望隨著價格回歸正常,我想你會在協同效益方面看到更具影響力的數字。不過即便在高CV動力煤端,隨著價格改善,MIBS的價值也會因摻配活動而上升。

  • So those are the two lines that you can easily see on our financials. The other lines, I would say is we already talked about the financing synergy with the three bonds that we did, the rate that we got versus what each of those companies had it in the past. And on the insurance side, if you look at -- put all those two items together, there was $20 million-plus in synergy on an annualized basis on that front as well.

    所以這兩條線你在我們財報上很容易看得到。其他方面,我會說我們也已經談過融資協同效益:我們做了三筆債券,取得的利率相較於兩家公司過去各自的水準。再來在保險端,如果你把這兩項加在一起,那一端按年化計算也有2,000萬美元以上的協同效益。

  • So net-net, when you add all those up, I think you are looking at over $160 million in synergy run rate, which is -- I think the last midpoint we provided was around $165 million at the midpoint, which was higher than -- I think originally, at the merger, we said $110 million to $140 million and then raised it to a midpoint of $165 million. So we are tracking towards that high end already.

    所以總結來說,當你把這些全部加總,我認為你看到的協同效益執行率(run rate)超過1.6億美元——我想我們上一次提供的中點大約是1.65億美元的中點,這高於——我記得在合併時我們說的是1.1億到1.4億美元,之後把中點上調到1.65億美元。所以我們目前已經朝向那個高端在走了。

  • Nick Giles - Analyst

    Nick Giles - Analyst

  • Understood. Thanks for all that details, Mitesh. Maybe one more, if I could. I think your commitment to shareholder return seems pretty clear to me. But kind of how do things stand on the M&A front? Are you seeing any opportunities across the M&A landscape, whether from a mine perspective, anything along the supply chain or anything from a logistics perspective that's worth looking at? Thanks.

    了解。謝謝你提供這麼多細節,Mitesh。若可以的話再問一個。我覺得你們對股東回報的承諾相當明確。但在併購(M&A)方面目前狀況如何?你們是否在整個併購版圖上看到任何機會——不論是礦場本身、供應鏈的任何環節,或是物流面有值得評估的標的?謝謝。

  • James Brock - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer

    James Brock - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer

  • Nick, it's something that we evaluate daily. I mean we look at a lot of things that come toward us. And as I've always said, my job to allocate capital is for the highest rate of return. So we do look at a lot of things that come in. I will tell you, currently today, we don't have anything to -- that we can put certainty around that we've done. But we do look at every opportunity that comes to us. We owe it to our shareholders and our employees to do that, and we'll continue to do so. And if something comes out there that makes sense, we certainly have the liquidity. We have the ability to do it, and we would do it.

    Nick,這是我們每天都在評估的事情。我的意思是,我們會看很多送到我們面前的案子。而且我一直都說,我在資本配置上的工作是追求最高的報酬率。所以我們確實會看很多進來的機會。我可以告訴你,就目前今天而言,我們沒有任何——我們能夠對外給出確定性、說我們已經做成的案子。但我們會評估每一個來到我們面前的機會。我們有義務為股東與員工這麼做,而且我們會持續這麼做。如果市場上出現合理的機會,我們當然有流動性,也有能力去做,而且我們會去做。

  • Matthew Key - Analyst

    Matthew Key - Analyst

  • Thanks again. I appreciate all the color.

    再次感謝。我很感謝你提供的所有補充資訊。

  • Mitesh Kumar Thakkar - President, Chief Financial Officer

    Mitesh Kumar Thakkar - President, Chief Financial Officer

  • Yeah. Thanks, Matthew.

    好的。謝謝你,Matthew。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • There are no further questions at this time. I will now turn the call over to Jimmy Brock for closing remarks. Please continue.

    目前沒有其他問題。我現在把電話會議交回給Jimmy Brock做結語。請繼續。

  • James Brock - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer

    James Brock - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer

  • Well, we'd like to thank everyone for joining us on the call today and certainly look forward to the rest of the year to come. And as I said in my opening remarks, I think the best is yet to come for Core Natural Resources. So thanks for joining.

    好的,我們想感謝各位今天參與電話會議,也非常期待今年接下來的進展。正如我在開場致詞中所說,我認為Core Natural Resources最好的時刻還在後頭。謝謝各位參與。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Ladies and gentlemen, this concludes today's conference call. Thank you for your participation. You may now disconnect.

    各位女士、先生,今天的電話會議到此結束。感謝各位的參與。您現在可以掛線。