加拿大自然資源公司 (CNQ) 2025 Q2 法說會逐字稿

完整原文

使用警語:中文譯文來源為 Google 翻譯,僅供參考,實際內容請以英文原文為主

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Good morning. We would like to welcome everyone to the Canadian Naturals 2025 second-quarter earnings conference call and webcast. (Operator Instructions) Please note this call is being recorded today, August 7, 2025, at 9:00 AM Mountain Time. I would now like to turn a meeting over to your host for today's call, Lance Cassen, Manager of Investor relations.

    早安.我們歡迎大家參加加拿大天然公司 2025 年第二季財報電話會議和網路廣播。(操作員指示)請注意,此通話於今天(2025 年 8 月 7 日)山區時間上午 9:00 進行錄音。現在,我想將今天的會議交給主持人、投資人關係經理 Lance Cassen。

  • Lance Casson - Manager, Investor Relations

    Lance Casson - Manager, Investor Relations

  • Good morning, everyone, and thank you for joining Canadian Naturals 2025 second-quarter earnings commerce call. As always, I'd like to remind you of our forward-looking statements. And it should be noted that in our reporting disclosures, everything is in Canadian dollars unless otherwise stated, and we report our reserves and production before royalties. Also, I would suggest to review the advisory section in our financial statements that includes comments on non-GAAP disclosures.

    大家早安,感謝您參加加拿大天然公司 2025 年第二季收益商業電話會議。像往常一樣,我想提醒您注意我們的前瞻性陳述。值得注意的是,在我們的報告揭露中,除非另有說明,所有內容均以加元為單位,並且我們報告的是特許權使用費之前的儲量和產量。此外,我建議審查我們財務報表中的諮詢部分,其中包括對非公認會計準則揭露的評論。

  • Speaking on today's call will be Scott Stauth, our President; and Victor Darel, our Chief Financial Officer. Additionally, in the room with us this morning is Robin Zabek, COO of E&P; and Jay Froc, COO of Oil Sands. Scott will start off by providing details on how strong operational performance, the completion of turnarounds, and our recent accretive acquisitions (inaudible) for a strong second half of the year. Victor will then summarize our financial results, liquidity, and our significant return to shareholders year-to-date. To close, Scott will summarize prior to open up a line for questions.

    今天的電話會議演講者將是我們的總裁 Scott Stauth;以及我們的財務長 Victor Darel。此外,今天早上與我們一起在場的還有 E&P 營運長 Robin Zabek 和 Oil Sands 營運長 Jay Froc。斯科特將首先詳細介紹強勁的營運業績、扭虧為盈的完成情況以及我們最近的增值收購(聽不清楚),以期在今年下半年取得強勁表現。然後,維克多將總結我們的財務表現、流動性以及今年迄今為止對股東的豐厚回報。最後,斯科特將在開放提問之前進行總結。

  • With that over to you, Scott.

    這些就交給你了,史考特。

  • Scott Stauth - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Scott Stauth - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Thank you, Lance, and good morning, everyone. A relentless focus on continuous improvement combined with effective and efficient operations drove strong performance year-to-date in '25. Our ability to effectively allocate capital across our strong asset base provides us with a competitive advantage. This stability combined with the creative acquisitions creates significant long-term value for our shareholders.

    謝謝你,蘭斯,大家早安。堅持不懈地專注於持續改進,加上有效和高效的運營,推動了 25 年初至今的強勁業績。我們能夠在強大的資產基礎上有效分配資本,這為我們提供了競爭優勢。這種穩定性與創造性的收購相結合,為我們的股東創造了巨大的長期價值。

  • Our culture of accountability and the strength of our assets is a unique advantage that results in both capital and operating cost savings and maximizes value for our shareholders. We successfully completed a planned turnaround at AOSP in the second quarter of 2025, five days ahead of schedule and on budget.

    我們的責任文化和資產實力是我們的獨特優勢,可節省資本和營運成本,並最大限度地為股東創造價值。我們在 2025 年第二季成功完成了 AOSP 的計劃轉變,比計劃提前了五天,並且沒有超出預算。

  • Production and upgrade utilization at Horizon and AOSP before and after the turnaround was high, driven by strong performance from our reliability enhancement and debottlenecking projects. In July 2025, oil sands mining and upgrading production averaged approximately 602,000 barrels per day, with upgrader utilization of 106%. And we expect the second half of 2025 to continue to deliver strong operating results.

    由於我們的可靠性增強和消除瓶頸專案的強勁表現,Horizo​​n 和 AOSP 在轉型前後的生產和升級利用率都很高。2025年7月,油砂開採和升級產量平均約為每天602,000桶,升級利用率為106%。我們預計 2025 年下半年將持續取得強勁的經營業績。

  • The second quarter of 2025, despite the planned turnaround at AOSP which reduced production levels in the quarter by approximately 120,000 barrels per day, we achieved quarterly production volumes totaling in approximately 1.420 million views per day, including liquids production of 1.019 million barrels per day, and natural gas production of 2.4 Bcf per day.

    2025 年第二季度,儘管 AOSP 計劃進行調整,導致該季度產量減少約 120,000 桶/天,但我們的季度產量仍達到約 142 萬桶/天,其中包括 101.9 萬桶/天的液體產量和 24 億立方英尺/天的天然氣產量。

  • Total corporate production on a BOE basis in the second quarter of 2025 was up approximately 135,000 BOEs per day from the second quarter of 2024, reflecting opportunistic acquisitions and organic growth across our asset base achieved in the last 12 months.

    2025 年第二季以桶油當量計算的企業總產量比 2024 年第二季增加了約 135,000 桶油當量/天,這反映了我們在過去 12 個月中實現的機會性收購和整個資產基礎的有機成長。

  • On the acquisition front, we closed the Palliser Block on June 26. Originally, we budgeted to close this acquisition on March 1, 2025, which would have added production of approximately 50,000s BOEs per day, including 20,000 barrels per day of Manville light crude oil and NGLs in the second quarter of 2025.

    在收購方面,我們於 6 月 26 日關閉了 Palliser Block。我們最初計劃於 2025 年 3 月 1 日完成此次收購,這將使日產量增加約 50,000 桶油當量,其中包括 2025 年第二季度日產量 20,000 桶曼維爾輕質原油和天然氣液體。

  • This acquisition and production were included in our original 2025 capital budget and production guidance, but due to the delayed closing in late June, it added only 2,000 barrels per day to our production levels for the second quarter. This acquisition also included approximately 1.1 million net acres of high-quality land, with currently identified significant light crude oil inventory of approximately 850 locations.

    此次收購和生產已包含在我們最初的 2025 年資本預算和生產指導中,但由於 6 月底的延遲關閉,它僅為我們第二季度的產量水平增加了 2,000 桶/天。此次收購還包括約110萬淨英畝的優質土地,目前已確定約850個地點有大量輕質原油庫存。

  • Subsequent quarter end, on July 2, we closed an acquisition of liquid-rich Montney assets located in the Grand Prairie area for approximately $750 million with production from the acquisition of approximately 32,000 BOEs per day, including 12,500 barrels per day of NGL. Our original 2025 capital budget and production guidance did not include this acquisition. These assets are directly adjacent to our existing Montney assets, providing opportunities for synergies while adding approximately 120,000 net acres of high-quality land with currently identified significant liquid-rich inventory of approximately 150 locations.

    隨後的季度末,即 7 月 2 日,我們以約 7.5 億美元的價格完成了對位於大草原地區液體資源豐富的 Montney 資產的收購,收購後的日產量約為 32,000 桶油當量,其中包括 12,500 桶 NGL。我們最初的 2025 年資本預算和生產指導並不包括此次收購。這些資產與我們現有的 Montney 資產直接相鄰,提供了協同效應的機會,同時增加了約 120,000 淨英畝的優質土地,目前已確定約 150 個地點擁有豐富的液體庫存。

  • To summarize, our combined recently closed accretive acquisitions have added approximately 82,000 BOEs per day of production, which includes approximately 32,500 barrels per day of liquids and total inventory of roughly 1,000 light oil and liquid-rich drilling locations. Further related to these acquisitions, our full-year capital budget will essentially remain unchanged from guidance provided in the first quarter, excluding the purchase price of the Grande Prairie acquisition, which closed on July 2nd.

    總而言之,我們最近完成的增值收購總計增加了約 82,000 桶/天的產量,其中包括約 32,500 桶/天的液體和約 1,000 個輕質油和富液鑽井地點的總庫存。與這些收購進一步相關的是,我們的全年資本預算將基本與第一季提供的指導保持不變,不包括 7 月 2 日完成的 Grande Prairie 收購的購買價格。

  • All maintenance capital related to the Grande Prairie asset and other acquisitions we've noted will be covered by our 2025 budget. In Q1, Canadian Natural was one of the first in industry to reduce 2025 capital spending due to efficiencies. And we are now executing development on the Grande Prairie asset while maintaining our capital guidance we provided in the first quarter for the year. We're also targeting to close the AOSP swap in the third quarter, and we plan to update our annual 2025 corporate production guidance after that swap closes.

    所有與 Grande Prairie 資產和我們注意到的其他收購相關的維護資本都將由我們的 2025 年預算承擔。第一季度,加拿大自然資源公司是業界首批因提高效率而削減 2025 年資本支出的公司之一。我們目前正在對 Grande Prairie 資產進行開發,同時維持我們在今年第一季提供的資本指引。我們也計劃在第三季完成 AOSP 交換,並計劃在交換結束後更新我們的 2025 年年度企業生產指南。

  • I will now run through the second quarter operational results. On the conventional side of the business, primary heavy oil production averaged approximately 87,300 barrels per day in the second quarter, an increase of 10 % over the second quarter of 2024, reflecting strong drilling results from our multilateral well program. We continue to achieve strong results from our drilling programs across our conventional E&P assets as we are realizing capital efficiencies, resulting in high levels of activity without increasing capital.

    我現在將介紹第二季的營運表現。在常規業務方面,第二季度初級重油產量平均約為每天 87,300 桶,比 2024 年第二季度增長 10%,這反映了我們多邊井計劃的強勁鑽探成果。我們在常規勘探與生產資產的鑽井項目中繼續取得強勁業績,因為我們實現了資本效率,在不增加資本的情況下實現了高水準的活動。

  • This includes our multilateral heavy oil program where we are targeting to drill 26 more wells in 2025 than originally budgeted. Importantly, the low operating costs on these multilateral wells drive strong results on capital adding significant value.

    其中包括我們的多邊重油計劃,我們的目標是到 2025 年比原預算多鑽 26 口油井。重要的是,這些多分支井的低營運成本帶來了強勁的資本增值效果。

  • Heavy oil operating cost averaged $17.44 per barrel in the second quarter of 2025, comparable with the second quarter of 2024. Pelican Lake production averaged approximately 43,100 barrels per day in the second quarter, a decrease of 4% from the second quarter of 2024, reflecting low natural field declines from this long life low decline asset. Operating costs of Pelican Lake averaged $9.01 per barrel in the quarter, comparable to the second quarter of last year.

    2025 年第二季重油營運成本平均為每桶 17.44 美元,與 2024 年第二季持平。鵜鶘湖第二季的平均產量約為每天 43,100 桶,比 2024 年第二季下降了 4%,這反映了這一長壽命低遞減資產的自然油田遞減率較低。本季度,Pelican Lake 的營運成本平均為每桶 9.01 美元,與去年第二季持平。

  • North American Lake crude oil and NGL production averaged approximately 140,700 barrels per day in the second quarter, which is up 31% from the second quarter of 2024, primarily driven by production from our Duvernay assets in addition to strong drilling results in our liquid-rich natural gas assets.

    北美湖原油和 NGL 產量在第二季度平均約為每天 140,700 桶,比 2024 年第二季度增長 31%,這主要得益於我們 Duvernay 資產的產量以及我們富液天然氣資產的強勁鑽探結果。

  • Operating costs on our light oil and NGL operations average $10.94 per barrel, a decrease of 24 % compared to the second quarter of 2024 level of $13.75 per barrel, reflecting higher production volumes. Under Duvernay assets, we're continuing to achieve strong production results and further cost reductions on these assets in the short time that we've owned up.

    我們的輕質油和 NGL 業務的營運成本平均為每桶 10.94 美元,與 2024 年第二季的每桶 13.75 美元相比下降了 24%,這反映了產量的增加。在 Duvernay 資產的領導下,我們在短時間內繼續取得強勁的生產業績,並進一步降低這些資產的成本。

  • Through our culture of continuous improvement, we remain confident we will continue to realize more value for shareholders than what was originally planned for at the time of the acquisition. Our team's efforts have resulted in strong operating costs during the first six months of these operating these assets, averaging $8.43 per barrel in the second quarter of 2025. The decrease of more than 11% compared to the first quarter of 2025 when operating costs were $9.52 per BOE.

    透過我們持續改進的文化,我們堅信我們將繼續為股東實現比收購時最初計劃的更多的價值。我們團隊的努力使得這些資產營運的前六個月的營運成本強勁,2025 年第二季平均為每桶 8.43 美元。與 2025 年第一季每桶油當量的營運成本 9.52 美元相比,下降了 11% 以上。

  • This results in annual operating cost savings of approximately $60 million as compared to our original target of $40 million. Our extended well lengths in the Duvernay, which are on average 20% longer than our 2024 well lengths, and optimized completion designs combined with strong execution, continue to lower development costs.

    與我們最初的 4000 萬美元目標相比,這可使每年的營運成本節省約 6000 萬美元。我們在杜韋奈的延長井長度比 2024 井長度平均長 20%,並且結合優化的完井設計以及強大的執行力,繼續降低開發成本。

  • On a length normalized basis, combined drilling and completion costs for 2025 are now targeting an improvement of approximately 16% or $2 million per well lower than compared to 2024 costs. That's a further improvement of $200,000 per well compared to the first quarter of 2025. We remain on track to achieve 2025 budget production of approximately 60,000 barrels per day in the Duvernay, BOEs per day in the Duvernay.

    依照長度標準化,2025 年的鑽井和完井成本總額目前的目標是比 2024 年的成本降低約 16% 或每口井降低 200 萬美元。與 2025 年第一季相比,每口井的成本進一步提高了 20 萬美元。我們仍有望實現 2025 年迪韋奈地區預算產量約 60,000 桶/天,迪韋奈地區 BOEs 每天的目標。

  • North American natural gas production for the second quarter averaged approximately 2.4 Bcf per day, an increase of 14% over the second quarter of 2024. Operating costs on our North American natural gas averaged $1.07 per MCF, which is 1 % lower compared to the second quarter of 2024 of $1.19 per MCF, primarily the result of higher production volume.

    北美第二季天然氣產量平均約為每天 24 億立方英尺,比 2024 年第二季成長 14%。我們北美天然氣的營運成本平均為每 MCF 1.07 美元,與 2024 年第二季的每 MCF 1.19 美元相比下降了 1%,這主要是由於產量增加。

  • In our thermal in situ operations, we achieved strong thermal production in the second quarter, averaging approximately 274,800 barrels per day. This is up 3 % from the second quarter of 2024, resulting from our capital efficient thermal pad and development program. Second quarter thermal in situ operating cost averaged $11.05 per barrel, which is comparable to the second quarter of 2024.

    在我們的熱力原位作業中,我們在第二季度實現了強勁的熱力產量,平均每天約為 274,800 桶。這比 2024 年第二季成長了 3%,這得益於我們資本高效的導熱墊和開發計畫。第二季熱力現場作業成本平均為每桶 11.05 美元,與 2024 年第二季相當。

  • At Primrose, we targeted to drill a CSS pad in the third quarter this year with production targeted to come on in 2026. At Jackfish, during the month of July, we brought on production a recently drilled SAGD pad. At Kirby, we are targeting to bring the recently drilled five well pair SAGD pad on production in the fourth quarter of 2025.

    在 Primrose,我們計劃在今年第三季鑽探一個 CSS 平台,並計劃在 2026 年開始生產。在 Jackfish,我們七月啟動了新鑽的 SAGD 平台的生產。在 Kirby,我們的目標是讓最近鑽探的五口井對 SAGD 平台在 2025 年第四季投入生產。

  • At Pike, we completed drilling two SAGD pads, which will be tied into the existing Jackfish facilities and targets to keep the Jackfish plants at full capacity. The first of these two pads is targeted to come on and production in the first quarter of 2026, and second pad will be on production in the second quarter.

    在派克,我們完成了兩個 SAGD 平台的鑽探,這些平台將與現有的 Jackfish 設施相連,目標是讓 Jackfish 工廠保持滿載運作。這兩個發射台中的第一個預計將於 2026 年第一季投產,第二個發射台預計將於第二季投產。

  • At our commercial scale solvent SAGD in Kirby North, we began solvent injection in June of 2024. In the second quarter of 2025, we executed workovers on two well pairs to enhance SORs, solvent recovery. And production trends will continue to be monitored over the coming months.

    在我們位於 Kirby North 的商業規模溶劑 SAGD 中,我們於 2024 年 6 月開始注入溶劑。2025 年第二季度,我們對兩對井進行了修井,以提高 SOR 和溶劑回收率。未來幾個月將繼續監測生產趨勢。

  • Our oil sands mining and upgrading. During the second quarter of 2025, our world-class oil sands mining and upgrading production average 463,800 barrels per day of SCO, an increase of 13% from the second quarter of 2024. The increase is a result of the reliability enhancement project eliminating the need for a turnaround at Horizon in 2025 and the Scotford Upgrader debottleneck, which were both completed in 2024 combined with the additional 20% working interest in AOSP acquired in December of 2024.

    我們的油砂開採和升級。2025年第二季度,我們世界一流的油砂開採和升級產量平均為SCO 463,800桶/天,比2024年第二季度增加13%。成長的原因是可靠性增強項目消除了 2025 年 Horizo​​​​n 檢修的需要,以及 Scotford Upgrader 瓶頸問題,這兩個項目均於 2024 年完成,再加上 2024 年 12 月收購的 AOSP 額外 20% 的工作權益。

  • Oil sands mining and upgrading cost averaged $26.53 per barrel of SCO in the second quarter of 2025, an increase of 2% from second quarter of 2024, reflecting the AOSP turnaround in the second quarter of 2025. Our growing world-class asset base is strategically balanced across commodity types so that we can be flexible and capture opportunities throughout the commodity price cycle, maximizing value for our shareholders. A substantial portion of our unique and diverse asset base consists of long-life low-decline assets which have significant low-risk, high-value reserves that require low-maintenance capital than most other reserves, making Canadian Natural a truly robust and resilient energy company.

    2025 年第二季度,油砂開採和升級成本平均為每桶 SCO 26.53 美元,較 2024 年第二季度增長 2%,反映了 2025 年第二季度 AOSP 的轉變。我們不斷增長的世界級資產基礎在商品類型之間實現了戰略平衡,因此我們能夠靈活地抓住整個商品價格週期中的機遇,為股東實現價值最大化。我們獨特且多樣化的資產基礎中很大一部分由長壽命、低衰減資產組成,這些資產擁有大量低風險、高價值的儲備,與大多數其他儲備相比,它們需要的維護資本較少,這使得加拿大自然資源公司成為一家真正強大而有韌性的能源公司。

  • I will now turn it over to Victor for our second-quarter financial review.

    現在我將把第二季的財務審查交給 Victor。

  • Victor Darel - Senior Vice President - Finance, Principal Accounting Officer

    Victor Darel - Senior Vice President - Finance, Principal Accounting Officer

  • Thanks, Scott, and good morning, everyone. In the second quarter of 2025, we delivered excellent financial results on the strong operational performance that Scott just discussed. And this is highlighted by adjusted fund flow in the quarter of approximately $3.3 billion and adjusted net earnings of $1.5 billion. These results also reflect the turnaround activities at AOSP that were completed in the quarter.

    謝謝,斯科特,大家早安。2025 年第二季度,我們憑藉 Scott 剛才討論的強勁營運業績,取得了出色的財務業績。本季調整後的資金流量約為 33 億美元,調整後的淨收益為 15 億美元,突顯了這一點。這些結果也反映了本季完成的 AOSP 扭虧為盈活動。

  • Results in Q2 clearly reflect our disciplined approach to capital allocation and where Canadian Natural focus and executed on our four pillars, where balance sheet strengths and returns to shareholders went hand in hand with resource value growth and opportunistic acquisitions. Returns to shareholders in the quarter were $1.6 billion, including $1.2 billion of dividends and an additional $400 million of share repurchases. These returns, including dividend payments and buybacks up to and including August 6, bring shareholder returns for the year to date to $4.6 billion.

    第二季度的業績清楚地反映了我們對資本配置的嚴謹態度,加拿大自然資源公司重點關注並執行了我們的四大支柱,即資產負債表實力和股東回報與資源價值增長和機會性收購齊頭並進。本季股東回報為 16 億美元,其中包括 12 億美元的股息和額外的 4 億美元股票回購。這些回報,包括截至 8 月 6 日的股息支付和回購,使今年迄今的股東回報達到 46 億美元。

  • Additionally, subsequent to quarter end, the board has approved a quarterly dividend of $0.5875 for common share, payable on October 3, 2025, to shareholder of record at the close of business on September 19, 2025. Net debt levels were below $17 billion at quarter end, having completed the acquisitions that were included in our 2025 budget. Our balance sheet remained strong, where debt to EBITDA was at 0.9 times, and debt to book capital came in at 29.1%.

    此外,季度結束後,董事會批准向 2025 年 9 月 19 日營業結束時登記在冊的股東派發 0.5875 美元的普通股季度股息,將於 2025 年 10 月 3 日支付。在完成 2025 年預算中包含的收購後,季度末的淨債務水準低於 170 億美元。我們的資產負債表依然強勁,債務與 EBITDA 比率為 0.9 倍,債務與帳面資本比率為 29.1%。

  • Liquidity of over $4.8 billion was also strong and reflects undrawn revolving bank facilities and cash on hand. The accretive acquisitions that were completed in late 2024 and year to date in 2025 immediately contribute to incremental production and additional free cash flow generation. Taken together with the strong operational results in 2025, Canadian Natural targets to provide similar shareholder returns in 2025 as compared to 2024.

    超過 48 億美元的流動性也很強勁,反映了未提取的循環銀行信貸額度和庫存現金。2024 年底和 2025 年年初至今完成的增值收購將立即促進增量生產和額外的自由現金流產生。結合 2025 年強勁的營運業績,加拿大自然資源公司的目標是在 2025 年提供與 2024 年類似的股東回報。

  • This is targeted to be achieved despite only allocating 60% of free cash flow in 2025 shareholder returns as compared to allocating 100% in 2024. Our industry leading cost structure, predictable long life, low decline assets and reserve base combined with a consistent commitment to continuous improvement and ability to execute on opportunistic acquisitions in our core areas continues to drive significant value at Canadian Natural.

    儘管 2025 年僅分配 60% 的自由現金流用於股東回報,而 2024 年則分配 100%,但仍有望實現這一目標。我們行業領先的成本結構、可預測的長壽命、低遞減資產和儲備基礎,加上對持續改進的一貫承諾和在核心領域實施機會性收購的能力,繼續為加拿大自然資源公司帶來巨大的價值。

  • We maintain our disciplined approach that contributes to our top tier US dollar WTI breakeven that remains in the low to mid $40 WTI per barrel range, which we define as the WTI price required to generate the adjusted fund flow, covered both maintenance capital and dividends. Returns to shareholders remain a top priority for our focused and dedicated teams for our culture and drive to do things right every day continues to enable material free cash flow generation and returns on capital.

    我們堅持嚴謹的作風,這有助於我們的頂級美元 WTI 盈虧平衡點保持在每桶 40 美元左右的低點至中位數區間,我們將此區間定義為產生調整後資金流所需的 WTI 價格,涵蓋維持資本和股息。對於我們專注敬業的團隊來說,股東回報仍然是首要任務,因為我們的文化和每天正確行事的動力繼續實現物質自由現金流的產生和資本回報。

  • And those are my comments and I'll turn it back to you, Scott.

    這些就是我的評論,我會把它交還給你,斯科特。

  • Scott Stauth - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Scott Stauth - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Thanks, Victor. In summary, our relentless focus on continuous improvement combined with effective and efficient operations drove strong performance year to date in 2025. Our ability to effectively allocate capital across our strong asset base provides us with a competitive advantage. Disability combined with our accretive acquisitions creates significant long-term value for our shareholders. Our culture of accountability and the strength of our assets is a unique advantage that results in both capital and operating cost savings can maximizes value for our shareholders.

    謝謝,維克多。總而言之,我們堅持不懈地專注於持續改進,並結合有效和高效的運營,推動了 2025 年迄今為止的強勁業績。我們能夠在強大的資產基礎上有效分配資本,這為我們提供了競爭優勢。殘疾與我們的增值收購相結合,為我們的股東創造了巨大的長期價值。我們的責任文化和資產實力是我們的獨特優勢,可以節省資本和營運成本,從而為股東實現價值最大化。

  • And with that, I will turn it over for questions.

    說完這些,我就可以把它交給大家提問了。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • (Operator Instructions) Patrick O'Rourke, ATB Capital Markets.

    (操作員指示)Patrick O'Rourke,ATB 資本市場。

  • Patrick O'Rourke - Analyst

    Patrick O'Rourke - Analyst

  • Hi, guys, good morning and thank you for taking my question. I guess first question here is just with respect to liquidity management. As we look out, 2027 is a bit of a heavier maturity year between the term loan and one of your larger nominal debt notes that's outstanding here. Just thinking about the interplay of tight credit spreads and a sticky end of the long curve, how are you approaching this maturity as we head to 2026?

    大家好,早安,謝謝你回答我的問題。我想這裡的第一個問題只是關於流動性管理。我們發現,2027 年是定期貸款和未償還較大名目債務票據中到期金額較大的一年。僅考慮信貸利差收緊和長期曲線黏性末端之間的相互作用,在我們邁向 2026 年之際,您如何接近這一成熟度?

  • Victor Darel - Senior Vice President - Finance, Principal Accounting Officer

    Victor Darel - Senior Vice President - Finance, Principal Accounting Officer

  • Good question. I appreciate where you're coming at it from. When we look at our balance sheet now coming out of 2025 and forecast end of 2026, cash flow generation, the period looks strong. So I think our refinancing needs will probably be a little bit lower than what you might be anticipating. But that said, we'll look to 2026 here, and to your point, look at our refinancing requirements and try to pick an opportune time to do so as we see fit.

    好問題。我很欣賞你的觀點。當我們查看 2025 年的資產負債表並預測 2026 年底的現金流產生時,這段期間看起來很強勁。因此我認為我們的再融資需求可能會比你們預期的要低一點。但話雖如此,我們將展望 2026 年,正如您所說,我們將研究我們的再融資要求,並嘗試選擇我們認為合適的時機。

  • Patrick O'Rourke - Analyst

    Patrick O'Rourke - Analyst

  • Okay, thanks. The second question is more on the operational side. Obviously, it's probably a smaller asset within the portfolio, but conventional multilateral drilling success here added 26 wells to the program. A lot of smaller peers that are out there talking about secondary recovery, water flood. We hear a lot on the primary side from Canadian Natural. Can you maybe talk to potential opportunities set for secondary recovery and water flooding your portfolio there?

    好的,謝謝。第二個問題更多的是關於操作方面。顯然,它可能只是投資組合中較小的資產,但這裡的常規多分支鑽井成功為該計劃增加了 26 口井。許多規模較小的同行正在討論二次採油、注水。我們從加拿大自然資源公司了解到了很多關於主要方面的消息。您能否談談您的投資組合中二次採油和注水的潛在機會?

  • Scott Stauth - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Scott Stauth - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Yeah, thanks, Patrick. It's Scott here. So we do look at those opportunities as well. Some of the ones you're mentioning, both on the polymer and the water flood side, we are commencing testing of a polymer flood currently in the Clearwater. And we'll look to see how those results work out down the road here but looks very promising.

    是的,謝謝,派崔克。我是史考特。所以我們也確實在關注這些機會。您提到的一些技術,包括聚合物驅和注水驅,我們目前正在 Clearwater 開始測試聚合物驅。我們將拭目以待這些結果在未來如何發揮作用,但看起來非常有希望。

  • And we also looked at our Smith water flood and have that implemented as well in that area. That's the first area that we were in the Clearwater as well, Patrick. So yes, we are undertaking those activities along with the [multi flats].

    我們還研究了史密斯水災,並在該地區實施了該措施。這也是我們在克利爾沃特的第一個地區,派崔克。是的,我們正在進行這些活動,同時[多套公寓]

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Dennis Fong, CIBC.

    加拿大帝國商業銀行的 Dennis Fong。

  • Dennis Fong - Analyst

    Dennis Fong - Analyst

  • Hi, good morning and thanks for taking my question. My first one is, obviously, the company has completed a few number of acquisitions over the course of the last several months. Can you talk towards your view of the A&D or M&A environment right now obviously completing some of these acquisitions? And do you mind touching also as well on your comfort level around the policy environment, how comfortable you feel about adding these assets to your portfolio, as well as the opportunity to improve operations, bolster inventory and any other opportunity sets from the acquired assets?

    大家好,早安,感謝您回答我的問題。我的第一個問題是,顯然,該公司在過去幾個月中完成了幾項收購。您能否談談您對目前顯然已完成一些收購的 A&D 或 M&A 環境的看法?您是否介意談談您對政策環境的舒適度,您對將這些資產添加到您的投資組合中感覺如何,以及改善營運、增加庫存和從收購資產中獲得的任何其他機會的機會?

  • Scott Stauth - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Scott Stauth - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Thanks, and I could speak to the acquisitions that we just recently completed here in June and July. We've already talked significantly about the AOSP and the Duvernay acquisition, so we know a lot about that already. But recently with the two acquisitions, they've come out very accretive for us. They add cashflow for us immediately. I think that's really important when you look at returns to shareholders. These assets do bring significant cashflow for us.

    謝謝,我可以談談我們剛剛在六月和七月完成的收購。我們已經對 AOSP 和 Duvernay 收購進行了大量討論,因此我們對此已經了解很多。但最近透過兩次收購,我們獲得了很大的增值。他們立即為我們增加了現金流。我認為,當你考慮股東回報時,這一點非常重要。這些資產確實為我們帶來了可觀的現金流。

  • So that's really how we look at it. In terms of on the M&A side, we're not buying something just to grow. We're buying something that adds cashflow, that adds inventory for development programs, and ultimately, adds additional value for shareholders. So it's a balance between the organic growth opportunities and the accretive acquisition opportunities, Dennis.

    這就是我們真正看待它的方式。就併購方面而言,我們收購並非只是為了發展。我們購買的東西可以增加現金流,增加開發案的庫存,最終為股東增加額外的價值。因此,丹尼斯,這是有機成長機會和增值收購機會之間的平衡。

  • Dennis Fong - Analyst

    Dennis Fong - Analyst

  • Great, thanks for that, Scott. My second question moves towards the Oil Sands Mining and Upgrading, a business unit. I guess on the Albian tour, you guys showcased obviously your ability to be quite nimble in terms of opportunities to develop other areas of the mine and optimize mine progression, specifically referring to the [SharkBite] asset. I was curious as to how you think about Horizon, obviously, as you've layered on incremental land adjacent to existing producing projects? And how you're thinking about mine progression over the next few years, especially as you added again incremental land or developable opportunities in and around your existing operations?

    太好了,謝謝你,斯科特。我的第二個問題涉及油砂開採和升級業務部門。我想,在阿爾比安之旅中,你們顯然展示了你們在開發礦山其他區域和優化礦山進展方面相當靈活的能力,具體指的是[SharkBite]資產。我很好奇您對 Horizo​​​​n 有何看法,顯然,您已經在現有生產項目附近增加了增量土地?您如何考慮未來幾年的礦山發展,特別是當您在現有業務中和周圍再次增加增量土地或可開發機會時?

  • Scott Stauth - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Scott Stauth - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Sure. So in terms of Horizon, Dennis, I think if you look at where we're at now and for the next, call it seven to eight years. We'll be progressing our way through the southern portion of the Horizon mine, which was acquired from Total several years back.

    當然。因此,就 Horizo​​n 而言,丹尼斯,我認為如果你看看我們現在所處的位置以及未來七到八年的情況。我們將穿過 Horizo​​​​n 礦的南部,該礦是幾年前從道達爾公司收購的。

  • Following that, we'll be moving up to the north pit, the north pit extension area. And that's where we'll be moving in the next phase of development there to maintain the upgraded production levels to currently what they're at. In reference to your comments about the additional assets, whether that's [Pier River] or the north pit, it's six. Those assets would have or are not booked in terms of reserves or resource force, but they have significant bitumen in place. And they potentially would be assets that could be developed sometime down the road that would support significant oil sands mining development opportunities.

    接下來,我們將前往北坑,即北坑延伸區。這就是我們在下一階段開發中要採取的措施,以將升級後的生產水準維持在目前的水準。關於您對額外資產的評論,無論是 [Pier River] 還是北坑,都是六個。這些資產在儲量或資源力量方面有或沒有被記錄,但它們擁有大量瀝青。而且它們有可能成為未來可以開發的資產,從而支持重要的油砂開採開發機會。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Greg Pardy, RBC Capital Markets.

    格雷格·帕迪(Greg Pardy),加拿大皇家銀行資本市場部。

  • Greg Pardy - Analyst

    Greg Pardy - Analyst

  • Yeah, thanks. Scott, has there been a pronounced shift in your mind in terms of how Canada's Competition Bureau either assesses or processes acquisitions? I mean, obviously, when you're spending 10% of your press release just indicating that you've got these deferrals on deals and you guys do deals all the time. It just feels like something's different that might not have been there a year or two ago.

    是的,謝謝。史考特,對於加拿大競爭局如何評估或處理收購,你的想法有明顯的轉變嗎?我的意思是,顯然,當你花費 10% 的新聞稿來表明你已經推遲了這些交易,而你們一直在做交易。感覺好像有些事情有所不同,一兩年前可能還不存在。

  • Scott Stauth - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Scott Stauth - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Yeah, thanks, Greg. No, I don't believe there's a significant difference there. Greg, the particular one that we have in the [Palo Sur block], it was unique to a certain extent just in terms of the amount of the facilities in the area. Various different competitors in the area.

    是的,謝謝,格雷格。不,我不認為這其中有顯著的差異。格雷格,我們在 [Palo Sur 街區] 擁有的那個,從該地區設施的數量來看,在一定程度上是獨一無二的。該地區有各種不同的競爭對手。

  • I would call it a unique circumstance. I do agree with you. It took a longer process than it should have, longer than we would have anticipated. In the end, we were able to close the deal and move along. If we look forward, I don't anticipate we will see the same type of situation going forward.

    我認為這是一種獨特的情況。我確實同意你的看法。這個過程比預期的要長,也比我們預期的要長。最終,我們成功達成交易並繼續前進。如果我們展望未來,我預計我們不會看到同樣的情況。

  • Greg Pardy - Analyst

    Greg Pardy - Analyst

  • Terrific. I'll shift gears maybe, Victor and Scott. But I mean, obviously, the limited buybacks in Q2 obviously stand out as you're deleveraging. So Victor, I just want to make sure, I've kind of got the number, the targeted net debt number is around $17 billion, I guess, or so at year end. Does that then put you in pretty good stead to achieve that $15 billion net debt target in like next year under futures? Would you expect getting there next year under futures?

    了不起。我也許會換個話題,維克多和史考特。但我的意思是,顯然,在去槓桿的過程中,第二季的有限回購顯然很突出。所以維克多,我只是想確認一下,我大概知道這個數字,我猜,年底的目標淨債務金額大約是 170 億美元左右。那麼,這是否會讓您在明年期貨市場中實現 150 億美元的淨債務目標?您預計明年期貨市場將實現這一目標嗎?

  • Victor Darel - Senior Vice President - Finance, Principal Accounting Officer

    Victor Darel - Senior Vice President - Finance, Principal Accounting Officer

  • That's -- we're still right where we were on the last call. When we look at the back half of last year, we're looking at coming out of 2026 at that $15 billion target based on the current forecast, Greg. I think the rate of buyback to your point still remains fairly strong. We look at that on an annualized basis. The rate of buyback here in Q2, very similar to what we saw in Q1. And at current forecasts, we'd expect a strong rate of buyback here over the last half of the year as well. So no real change in the policy there.

    也就是說——我們仍然處於上次通話時的狀態。格雷格,當我們回顧去年下半年時,根據目前的預測,我們預計到 2026 年將達到 150 億美元的目標。我認為就你的觀點而言,回購率仍然相當強勁。我們以年度化為基礎來看這個問題。第二季的回購率與第一季非常相似。根據目前的預測,我們預計今年下半年的回購率也將大幅上升。因此那裡的政策並沒有真正的改變。

  • Greg Pardy - Analyst

    Greg Pardy - Analyst

  • Okay. So no change in the policy, but -- and I'm splitting hairs, but getting to $15 billion before December 31 is not unrealistic, is that fair?

    好的。因此政策沒有變化,但是——我正在吹毛求疵,但在 12 月 31 日之前達到 150 億美元並不現實,這公平嗎?

  • Victor Darel - Senior Vice President - Finance, Principal Accounting Officer

    Victor Darel - Senior Vice President - Finance, Principal Accounting Officer

  • That's fair. Yeah.

    這很公平。是的。

  • Greg Pardy - Analyst

    Greg Pardy - Analyst

  • Okay. Thanks very much. Yeah.

    好的。非常感謝。是的。

  • Victor Darel - Senior Vice President - Finance, Principal Accounting Officer

    Victor Darel - Senior Vice President - Finance, Principal Accounting Officer

  • We're looking at that in that $65 to $70 WTI range. So obviously, depends on pricing here and coming into 2026.

    我們預計 WTI 價格將在 65 至 70 美元之間。所以顯然,這取決於這裡的定價以及 2026 年的定價。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Manav Gupta, UBS Financial.

    瑞銀金融的 Manav Gupta。

  • Manav Gupta - Equity Analyst

    Manav Gupta - Equity Analyst

  • Good morning. I have two questions I last time upfront. First, I wanted to -- if you could help us understand the benefits of closing the AOSP deal with Shell, how much volume comes in, but would that change the way you look at the mine also? Could you increase your bitumen output because you don't have to match the upgrader? And then second question is, can I get your outlook on the echo pricing and going forward, especially with the LNG Canada also starting up? Thank you.

    早安.我上次提前問過兩個問題。首先,我想——如果您能幫助我們了解與殼牌達成 AOSP 交易的好處,那麼交易量會有多大,但這是否也會改變您對礦山的看法?由於您不必匹配升級劑,因此是否可以增加瀝青產量?第二個問題是,我能否了解您對 Echo 定價和未來發展的展望,尤其是在 LNG Canada 也啟動的情況下?謝謝。

  • Scott Stauth - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Scott Stauth - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Yeah. Thanks for the question. I'll answer the second part first. With LNG Canada coming online, I think if you look at the forward strip, the pricing still does look soft in terms of echo. I think the market's probably anticipating a certain amount of gas that will easily be able to be turned on.

    是的。謝謝你的提問。我先回答第二部分。隨著 LNG Canada 上線,我認為如果你看一下遠期價格,從迴聲角度來看,定價仍然顯得疲軟。我認為市場可能預期一定數量的天然氣將很容易啟動。

  • Our view though is that once the second training is brought online, that there will be definitely a period of time that it'll take to fill up the full 2 Bcf of capacity of LNG Canada. So I would think that we're going to see ebbs and flows in terms of echo pricing and its relativity to what the basin is able to produce for total egress capacity. I think that'll ebbs and flows over the next five plus years.

    不過,我們的觀點是,一旦第二次培訓上線,肯定需要一段時間才能填滿加拿大液化天然氣公司的全部 20 億立方英尺的產能。因此,我認為我們將會看到迴聲定價的起伏,以及它與盆地總出口容量的相關性。我認為在未來五年多的時間裡這種情況會有所起伏。

  • And on your -- sorry, could you repeat the first question for me?

    關於您的-抱歉,您能再問我第一個問題嗎?

  • Manav Gupta - Equity Analyst

    Manav Gupta - Equity Analyst

  • How does the AOSP transaction change the outlook? And is there a way you would change the mine also just because probably you can produce more bitumen? I'm just speculating because you don't have to match the upgrader. But if you could talk about how that transaction changes, the ability to operate the AOSP mine once you do become 100% owner.

    AOSP 交易如何改變前景?您是否也會改變礦井,僅僅因為這樣可能可以生產更多的瀝青?我只是在推測,因為您不必匹配升級器。但如果你能談談該交易如何變化,那麼一旦你成為 100% 所有者,你就可以操作 AOSP 礦場。

  • Scott Stauth - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Scott Stauth - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Right. So just to clarify for you the swap involves Canadian Natural [corn] 31,000 barrels a day of bitumen production. So that's important to us. We see 100% ownership of the mine important to us just from a synergies with Horizon perspective.

    正確的。因此,需要向您澄清的是,互換涉及加拿大天然[玉米]每天 31,000 桶瀝青的生產。這對我們很重要。從與 Horizo​​​​n 的協同效應來看,我們認為 100% 擁有礦山所有權對我們很重要。

  • We will no longer have JV in terms of the mines. It's easier for us to be able to move our equipment back and forth, whether that's heavy haul trucks, cranes, people, and other types of assets that we can move back and forth to optimize. And warehousing is another one that we look at where we will no longer have to maintain two separate warehouses where you would have one at 90% and the other one at 100% working inches. So those are all items that are small in nature, but they do add up. So we see some important synergies coming through that.

    我們將不再就礦山建立合資關係。我們可以更輕鬆地來回移動設備,無論是重型卡車、起重機、人員或其他類型的資產,我們都可以來回移動以進行最佳化。倉儲是我們關注的另一個領域,我們將不再需要維護兩個獨立的倉庫,其中一個倉庫的工作率為 90%,另一個倉庫的工作率為 100%。所以這些都是本質上很小的事情,但它們加起來確實很大。因此,我們看到了一些重要的協同效應。

  • Now, in terms of going forward for production opportunities, I think we'll talk more about that probably later this fall. We'll have some more in discussions that we can inform of what our views are on the long term. Of course, all that's going to be relative to where we see pricing, WTI, and bitumen pricing over the long term. But I can tell you that there are significant opportunities both at Horizon and AOSP to increase production.

    現在,就未來的生產機會而言,我想我們可能會在今年秋天晚些時候進一步討論這個問題。我們將進行更多討論,以告知我們對長期的看法。當然,所有這些都與我們長期以來看到的定價、WTI 和瀝青定價有關。但我可以告訴你,Horizo​​​​n 和 AOSP 都有很大的機會提高產量。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Neil Mehta, Goldman Sachs.

    高盛的尼爾·梅塔。

  • Neil Mehta - Analyst

    Neil Mehta - Analyst

  • Yeah, thank you. I want to stay on the marketing theme here and just talk about the WCS heavy differential. Obviously, year over year, we tightened up nicely. But we've seen it widen out and just your perspective on whether this tightening that we've seen more recently is structural post TMX and given the tightness of heavy on the Gulf Coast or as OPEC brings barrels back online. And Canadian production does seem like it is growing, that we're going to move back to, let's call it the $13 run rate you were at for the balance, most of last year into the early this year.

    是的,謝謝。我想繼續討論行銷主題,只談論 WCS 重型差速器。顯然,我們一年比一年做得更好了。但我們已經看到它的範圍擴大了,而您認為我們最近看到的這種緊縮是否是 TMX 之後的結構性現象,以及墨西哥灣沿岸重油供應緊張的情況,還是 OPEC 恢復供應的情況。加拿大的產量似乎確實在成長,我們將回到去年大部分時間到今年年初的 13 美元運行率。

  • Scott Stauth - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Scott Stauth - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Yeah, good question, Neil. I think the way to look at it is we would anticipate the WCF differential to vary in the range of $10 to $13. There's going to be times when it could be more than that or wider than $13. There's going to be times when it will be lower than $10. And yes, that will vary depending on OPEC's production potentially. But it also has impacts just within North America in terms of the refinery turnaround timing. And so those situations are going to impact it, but the structural change happened when TMX came online in May of 2024. We anticipate the differentials will be in a pretty solid range bound at $10 to $13.

    是的,尼爾,問得好。我認為看待這個問題的方式是,我們預計 WCF 差異將在 10 美元到 13 美元的範圍內變化。有時它可能會高於這個數字,或超出 13 美元。有時它會低於 10 美元。是的,這可能會根據歐佩克的產量而有所不同。但就煉油廠的周轉時間而言,它也對北美地區產生了影響。這些情況都會對其產生影響,但結構性變化發生在 2024 年 5 月 TMX 上線時。我們預計差價將處於 10 美元至 13 美元的相當穩定的範圍內。

  • Neil Mehta - Analyst

    Neil Mehta - Analyst

  • Okay, that's really helpful. The same question on the SEO premium. We obviously had a lot of maintenance in the second quarter as it related to the upgrades. It had been kind of bouncing at a discount of a couple bucks up until this point. SEO also is influenced by the strength of distillate, which trades at a decent premium to MOGAS right now. So how are you guys thinking about pricing relative to TI?

    好的,這確實很有幫助。關於 SEO 溢價的相同問題。顯然,我們在第二季進行了大量與升級相關的維護工作。到目前為止,它一直以幾美元的折扣價出售。SEO 也受到餾分油強度的影響,目前餾分油的交易價格比車用汽油高出許多。那麼你們對於相對於 TI 的定價有何看法?

  • Scott Stauth - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Scott Stauth - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Again, same type of scenario. Probably you look at a range bound of a minus buck and a half to plus a buck and a half. It'd be somewhere in that range, Neil. And of course, you mentioned on the distillate side as well. And you'll have times of the year where we saw a strong Q2, as you mentioned, related to maintenance.

    再次,相同類型的場景。您可能看到的是負 1.5 美元到正 1.5 美元之間的區間。它可能就在那個範圍內,尼爾。當然,您也提到了餾出物方面。正如您所提到的,一年中我們將看到第二季的維護業務表現強勁。

  • So I expect to have some flows to move on a go-forward basis, just like they have done in the path relative to turnaround activities. And so if you look back over time, that differential has -- it has varied from minus two to plus three. And so I don't think you'll see any structural shifts going forward here.

    因此,我預計一些資金流會繼續向前發展,就像它們在扭轉局面活動方面所做的那樣。因此,如果回顧過去,就會發現這個差異已經從負二變成正三。因此我認為你不會看到這裡發生任何結構性轉變。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Menno Hulshof, TD Cowan.

    門諾·赫爾肖夫(Menno Hulshof),TD Cowan。

  • Menno Hulshof - Equity Analyst

    Menno Hulshof - Equity Analyst

  • Thanks, and good morning, everyone. I'll start with a question on synthetic. You talked about 600, 2,000 barrels a day for the month of July. With little to no turnaround activity tied to SCO production in the second half, what could get in the way of your being able to maintain 600,000 barrels a day or even a bit higher through the end of the year?

    謝謝,大家早安。我先從關於合成的問題開始。您談到了 7 月每天的產量為 600 至 2,000 桶。由於下半年與上合組織生產相關的扭轉活動很少甚至沒有,那麼什麼因素會阻礙你們在年底前維持每天 60 萬桶甚至更高的產量呢?

  • Scott Stauth - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Scott Stauth - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Yeah, good question, Manoel. I think we should be looking within that range. There isn't anything necessarily stopping us. We have the turnarounds that have been worked through at AOSP and Horizon has, all things look really good at Horizon as well in terms of the upgraders' performance.

    是的,馬諾埃爾,你問得好。我認為我們應該在這個範圍內尋找。沒有什麼可以阻止我們。我們在 AOSP 和 Horizo​​n 上都已經解決了問題,從升級者的表現來看,Horizo​​​​n 上的一切看起來都非常好。

  • So you would have noted we had a very strong Q1 where everything went very well for us, really solid road conditions through the wintertime. You don't quite see those solid whole road conditions in the summer and fall that you do in the wintertime. But in that range, in that 600 range, I think is probably a good run rate to consider now.

    所以你會注意到我們在第一季表現非常強勁,一切都進行得很順利,整個冬季的路況都非常穩固。夏季和秋季,你不會像冬季那樣看到堅實的路面狀況。但在這個範圍內,在 600 的範圍內,我認為現在可能是值得考慮的良好運行率。

  • Menno Hulshof - Equity Analyst

    Menno Hulshof - Equity Analyst

  • Okay, thanks for that, Scott. And then flipping over to turnarounds, the, you had the five-day acceleration at the AOSP in the quarter. That seems to be a trend. We've seen similar updates from some of your peers, including Suncor yesterday. So, my question is, what is driving better than expected turnaround execution for yourselves? And then on a related note, how much contingency is typically built into the timeline for a given turnaround?

    好的,謝謝你,斯科特。然後轉到週轉,本季 AOSP 實現了五天的加速。這似乎是一種趨勢。我們看到一些同行也發布了類似的更新,包括昨天的 Suncor。所以,我的問題是,是什麼推動了你們實現比預期更好的扭轉?然後,在相關的說明中,對於給定的周轉,時間表中通常會包含多少應急措施?

  • Scott Stauth - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Scott Stauth - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Yeah, really good question. For us, I would say that the opportunities such that happened here with being five days early at AOSP, it's really just a matter of -- if you look at all the manpower required on site, we're driving for efficiencies, lots of labor required, taking units apart, doing inspections, doing cleaning of vessels, and so on and so forth. The teams that are driving those turnaround activities are -- have that same continuous improvement culture that we do have with the rest of our operations in the company. So they're expected, and they do look at ways of trying to find efficiencies.

    是的,這個問題問得真好。對我們來說,我想說,在 AOSP 提前五天發生這樣的機會,實際上只是一個問題 - 如果你看看現場所需的所有人力,我們正在努力提高效率,需要大量的勞動力,拆卸設備,進行檢查,清潔容器等等。推動這些扭虧為盈活動的團隊與我們公司其他業務部門一樣,擁有同樣的持續改善文化。所以這是意料之中的事,而且他們確實在尋找提高效率的方法。

  • So really, there isn't a lot of built-in contingency, probably in the 10% range of estimates when they're building their turnaround schedules. So they're enticed. And we certainly encourage the teams to continue their opportunities that they look at to create those efficiencies and find ways to have the manpower on site be more effective and more efficient.

    因此,實際上並沒有太多的內建應急措施,在他們制定週轉計劃時,可能在估計的 10% 範圍內。所以他們被誘惑了。我們當然鼓勵團隊繼續尋找機會來提高效率,並找到讓現場人力更有效、更有效率的方法。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Doug Leggate, Wolfe Research.

    道格‧萊格特(Doug Leggate),沃爾夫研究公司。

  • Douglas Leggate - Equity Analyst

    Douglas Leggate - Equity Analyst

  • Hi. How's it going? It's (inaudible) on for Doug Leggate. Thanks for taking my call. I just wanted to kind of get some insight to get your view on where do you see capacity to grow the dividend, especially in light of some of the acquisitions that were described on the, in the press release and on a go-forward basis?

    你好。怎麼樣了?這是 Doug Leggate 的(聽不清楚)節目。謝謝您接聽我的電話。我只是想了解您的看法,您認為哪裡有增加股息的能力,特別是考慮到新聞稿中和未來描述的一些收購?

  • Victor Darel - Senior Vice President - Finance, Principal Accounting Officer

    Victor Darel - Senior Vice President - Finance, Principal Accounting Officer

  • Thanks for the question. Obviously, we've had a long history of growing the dividend every year now for 25 years. There's definitely some good incremental cash flow coming off the acquisitions. I wouldn't want to step into the board's shoes there, but would just say that as we go forward, I'd anticipate that there'd be some room for dividend growth here into 2026, should the board continue to pursue the track record that we have seen in the past.

    謝謝你的提問。顯然,25 年來,我們每年都會增加股利。收購肯定會帶來一些良好的增量現金流。我不想站在董事會的角度,但我只想說,隨著我們前進,如果董事會繼續保持過去的業績記錄,我預計到 2026 年股息還會有一定的成長空間。

  • Scott Stauth - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Scott Stauth - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • And [Nick], I would just add to that. If you look at the history of the company over the past 25 years, the opportunities for the board to consider adding and increasing the dividend payout has come on the backs of both organic and opportunistic acquisition opportunities that the company's taken on over the past 35 years.

    還有[尼克],我只想補充一點。如果回顧該公司過去 25 年的歷史,就會發現董事會考慮增加和提高股息的機會來自於該公司過去 35 年來抓住的有機收購機會和機會性收購機會。

  • And I think that's really important to remember, the future doesn't always represent the past, Nick. But for a company with the strengths of the assets that we have, it is extremely important to the board and to the management team to maintain the dividend, the value of the dividend that has been brought to the shareholders. And it's very important to us. So we're going to make sure that we continue to operate our assets and grow organically and find opportunity to make acquisitions when we can to help support continued growth to that dividend.

    我認為記住這一點非常重要,未來並不總是代表過去,尼克。但對於像我們這樣擁有強大資產的公司來說,維持股利、維持為股東帶來的股利價值對董事會和管理團隊來說極為重要。這對我們來說非常重要。因此,我們將確保繼續經營我們的資產並實現有機成長,並在可能的情況下尋找收購機會,以幫助支持股息的持續成長。

  • Douglas Leggate - Equity Analyst

    Douglas Leggate - Equity Analyst

  • Thank you. And for my follow-up, my follow-up kind of ties into that. So what do you kind of see your post-dividend breakeven right now for your metrics? And is there a threshold that you're comfortable, I guess what's the threshold that you're comfortable kind of taking it from its previous, from its previous, I guess, dollar move?

    謝謝。對於我的後續行動,我的後續行動與此相關。那麼,您認為目前的股利後損益平衡點是多少?是否存在一個讓您感到舒適的閾值,我想,您覺得與之前的美元走勢相比,您可以感到舒適的閾值是多少?

  • Scott Stauth - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Scott Stauth - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • You're asking what our breakeven is, Nick?

    你問的是我們的損益平衡點是多少,尼克?

  • Douglas Leggate - Equity Analyst

    Douglas Leggate - Equity Analyst

  • Yeah, what is, yeah, I'm actually, what is the post-dividend breakeven currently? And is there a range that you're looking to kind of stay within, I guess, and you kind of feel comfortable with maintaining your balance sheet?

    是的,是的,實際上,目前的股息後損益平衡是多少?我想,您是否希望保持在一個範圍內,並且您對維持資產負債表感到滿意?

  • Victor Darel - Senior Vice President - Finance, Principal Accounting Officer

    Victor Darel - Senior Vice President - Finance, Principal Accounting Officer

  • Yeah, so currently we're in that $40 to $45 WTI breakeven range. And the incremental cash flow from the acquisitions is keeping us there. We do that calculation post-dividend. The dividend is something that we consider very valuable shareholders and shareholder returns. So that's -- we calculate it after the dividend.

    是的,目前我們處於 40 至 45 美元的 WTI 損益平衡範圍內。而收購帶來的增量現金流使我們維持這一水準。我們在股息後進行計算。我們認為股息對於股東和股東回報來說非常有價值。這就是——我們在股息之後計算它。

  • Douglas Leggate - Equity Analyst

    Douglas Leggate - Equity Analyst

  • Yep. And is there a threshold, in that sense, the targeted threshold that you're looking to stay within the 45, $40 to $45 range, essentially?

    是的。從這個意義上來說,是否存在一個門檻,即您希望保持在 45 美元、40 美元到 45 美元範圍內的目標門檻?

  • Victor Darel - Senior Vice President - Finance, Principal Accounting Officer

    Victor Darel - Senior Vice President - Finance, Principal Accounting Officer

  • We're comfortable in that range now, so essentially the answer is yes. And obviously we take a view to commodity prices going forward and that the board assesses that in future periods.

    我們現在對這個範圍感到滿意,所以基本上答案是肯定的。顯然,我們會關注大宗商品價格的未來走勢,董事會也會在未來一段時間內對此進行評估。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Thank you. Ladies and gentlemen, as a reminder, should you have any questions, please press the star key followed by the number one. We will pause a moment for further questions. There are no further questions at this time. Please proceed with closing remarks.

    謝謝。女士們、先生們,提醒一下,如果您有任何問題,請按星號鍵,然後按數字 1。我們將暫停一會兒以回答其他問題。目前沒有其他問題。請繼續致結束語。

  • Lance Casson - Manager, Investor Relations

    Lance Casson - Manager, Investor Relations

  • Thank you, operator, and thanks everyone for joining our call this morning. If you have any questions, please give us a call. Have a great day.

    謝謝接線員,也謝謝大家今天早上參加我們的電話會議。如果您有任何疑問,請致電我們。祝你有美好的一天。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Ladies and gentlemen, this concludes your conference call for today. We thank you for participating and ask that you please disconnect your lines.

    女士們、先生們,今天的電話會議到此結束。感謝您的參與,並請您斷開線路。