ConnectOne Bancorp Inc (CNOB) 2025 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Good morning, ladies and gentlemen, and thank you for standing by. My name is Kelvin and I will be your conference operator today. At this time, I would like to welcome everyone to the ConnectOne Bancorp, Inc., fourth-quarter 2025 earnings call. (Operator Instructions)

女士們、先生們，早安，感謝各位的耐心等待。我叫凱爾文，今天將由我擔任你們的會議接線生。在此，我謹代表 ConnectOne Bancorp, Inc. 向大家歡迎參加 2025 年第四季財報電話會議。（操作說明）

Thank you. I would now like to turn the call over to Siya Vansia, Chief Brand and Innovation Officer. Please go ahead.

謝謝。現在我將把電話交給首席品牌與創新長 Siya Vansia。請繼續。

Good morning, and welcome to today's conference call to review ConnectOne's results for the fourth quarter of 2025 and to update you on recent developments. On today's conference call will be Frank Sorrentino, Chairman and Chief Executive Officer; and Bill Burns, Senior Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer.

早安，歡迎參加今天的電話會議，我們將回顧 ConnectOne 2025 年第四季的業績，並向您介紹最近的發展。出席今天電話會議的有董事長兼執行長弗蘭克·索倫蒂諾，以及高級執行副總裁兼財務長比爾·伯恩斯。

I'd also like to caution you that we may make forward-looking statements during today's conference call that are subject to risks and uncertainties. Factors may cause actual results to differ materially from expectations are detailed in our SEC filings. The forward-looking statements included in this conference call are only made as of the date of this call and the company is not obligated to publicly update or revise them.

我還想提醒各位，我們在今天的電話會議中可能會發表一些前瞻性聲明，這些聲明存在風險和不確定性。導致實際結果與預期結果有重大差異的因素已在提交給美國證券交易委員會的文件中詳細說明。本次電話會議中包含的前瞻性陳述僅代表截至本次電話會議之日的信息，本公司沒有義務公開更新或修改這些陳述。

In addition, certain terms used in this call are non-GAAP financial measures, reconciliations of which are provided in the company's earnings release and accompanying tables or schedules, which have been filed on Form 8-K with the SEC and may also be accessed through the company's website.

此外，本次電話會議中使用的某些術語是非GAAP財務指標，這些指標的調節表已在公司收益報告及隨附表格或附表中提供，這些文件已以8-K表格的形式提交給美國證券交易委員會，也可以透過公司網站存取。

I will now turn the call over to Frank Sorrentino. Frank, please go ahead.

現在我將把電話交給弗蘭克·索倫蒂諾。弗蘭克，請繼續。

Thank you, Siya, and good morning, everyone. 2025 was a defining period for ConnectOne, one that demonstrated the strength of our business model, the value of our client-first culture and our team's ability to execute on all fronts. Looking back, we delivered on a set of highly aspirational goals for the year, culminating in strong returns backed by solid profitability, efficiency and asset quality metrics.

謝謝Siya，大家早安。 2025年是ConnectOne發展歷程中的一個重要時期，它充分展現了我們商業模式的優勢、以客戶為先的企業文化價值以及團隊在各個方面的卓越執行力。回顧過去，我們實現了本年度一系列極具雄心壯志的目標，最終取得了強勁的回報，這得益於穩健的盈利能力、效率和資產品質指標。

We seamlessly integrated the largest transaction in our history. We completed a full systems conversion within two weeks of that closing and bolstered our franchise value and competitive position in the New York Metro market.

我們順利完成了公司史上規模最大的交易。在交易完成後的兩週內，我們完成了全面的系統轉換，提高了我們在紐約都會區的特許經營價值和競爭地位。

This meaningfully propel the company beyond the $10 billion asset threshold, a transition ConnectOne was well prepared for, and we ended the year with $14 billion in assets a market cap in excess of $1.4 billion. These results directly reflect the strength and the dedication of our exceptional team whose talent and client-focused obsession continue to distinguish ConnectOne across our markets.

這使得公司資產規模顯著突破了 100 億美元的門檻，ConnectOne 對此轉型做好了充分準備，到年底，公司資產規模達到 140 億美元，市值超過 14 億美元。這些成果直接反映了我們卓越團隊的實力和奉獻精神，他們的才華和以客戶為中心的執著精神使 ConnectOne 在我們的市場中脫穎而出。

The natural alignment of our expanded team drove meaningful progress in strengthening client engagement exemplified by remarkable retention through the merger, all while simultaneously deepening existing client relationships.

我們擴大的團隊自然而然地協同合作，在加強客戶參與方面取得了實質進展，透過合併實現了顯著的客戶留存率，同時加深了與現有客戶的關係。

As Bill will discuss in greater detail, we closed 2025 with meaningful momentum, delivering strong fourth quarter performance highlighted by robust core earnings, expanding margin, and accelerated returns.

正如比爾將要詳細討論的那樣，我們在 2025 年末取得了顯著的進展，第四季度業績強勁，核心收益穩健，利潤率不斷擴大，回報加速成長。

Turning to some of the recent highlights and our near-term outlook. Deposit gathering remains a core competitive advantage. During the second half of 2025, client deposits increased by approximately 5% on an annualized basis, reflecting strong relationship inflows and a sizable reduction in brokered deposits.

接下來，我們來看看近期的一些亮點以及近期的展望。募集存款仍然是一項核心競爭優勢。2025 年下半年，客戶存款以年率計算成長約 5%，反映出強勁的客戶關係資金流入和經紀存款的大幅減少。

Meanwhile, our loan portfolio also grew by an annualized 5% on the strength of strong originations, offset by elevated payoffs in part due to higher refinancing rates for borrowers. We anticipate these portfolio dynamics continuing into 2026.

同時，由於貸款發放強勁，我們的貸款組合也實現了年化 5% 的增長，但部分原因是藉款人再融資利率上升，導致還款額增加，從而抵消了這一增長。我們預計這種投資組合動態將持續到 2026 年。

The bank's net interest margin widened significantly over the past quarter and year and with our liability-sensitive positioning, we expect that positive trajectory will continue throughout 2026. Performance metrics improved significantly this quarter, and we remain committed to building strong capital, driving efficiency, and generating profitable growth with the goal of delivering even higher returns on assets and equity.

該銀行的淨利差在過去一個季度和一年中顯著擴大，憑藉我們穩健的負債敏感型投資組合，我們預計這一積極趨勢將在 2026 年繼續保持。本季業績指標顯著改善，我們將繼續致力於累積雄厚的資本、提高效率並實現獲利成長，以實現更高的資產和股權回報。

As capital generation accelerates, we'll have flexibility to support our growth, increase our common dividend, and stand ready for opportunistic stock repurchases. As we move through the year, we will remain focused on further efficiencies, particularly across Long Island, where our team continues to generate opportunities for expansion.

隨著資本累積速度加快，我們將有更大的靈活性來支持我們的成長，提高普通股股息，並隨時準備進行機會性股票回購。隨著今年的推進，我們將繼續專注於進一步提高效率，尤其是在長島地區，我們的團隊將繼續在那裡創造擴張的機會。

In addition, consistent with our branch late relationship-driven approach, we've identified five branch locations to consolidate, continuing our branch rationalization efforts. Furthermore, we have a deeply talented and expanded team in place, so we anticipate modest staffing growth going forward that will also drive improved revenue and operating synergies.

此外，為了貫徹我們以分支機構關係為導向的方針，我們已確定五個分支機構地點進行合併，繼續推進分支機構合理化工作。此外，我們擁有一支才華橫溢且不斷壯大的團隊，因此我們預計未來員工人數將適度成長，這也將推動收入成長和營運協同效應的提高。

In closing, as we enter 2026, ConnectOne is uniquely positioned to capitalize on client-driven opportunities in some of the best markets in the country. Even with these strengths, we also recognize that competitive pressures, political developments, and broader market sentiment will continue to shape and challenge our environment. Rest assured, we're prepared to meet these hurdles head on while remaining focused on executing our long-term vision and delivering sustainable value to all our stakeholders.

最後，展望 2026 年，ConnectOne 憑藉其獨特的優勢，能夠在全國一些最好的市場中掌握客戶驅動的機會。即使擁有這些優勢，我們也意識到競爭壓力、政治發展和更廣泛的市場情緒將繼續塑造和挑戰我們的環境。請放心，我們已準備好迎難而上，同時繼續專注於實現我們的長期願景，並為所有利害關係人創造可持續的價值。

So with that overview, I'll turn it over to Bill to walk through some of our performance in a little more detail. Bill?

綜上所述，接下來我將把麥克風交給比爾，讓他更詳細地介紹我們的一些表現。帳單？

All right. Thank you, Frank, and great to be speaking with you this morning as we delivered another excellent quarter was highlighted by improving net interest margin and performance ratios, robust loan originations, and core client deposit growth, combined with the reduction in wholesale deposits, clean asset quality, and healthy capital and tangible book value accretion.

好的。謝謝弗蘭克，很高興今天早上能和你交談。我們又迎來了一個出色的季度，淨利差和業績比率有所改善，貸款發放強勁，核心客戶存款增長，同時批發存款減少，資產質量良好，資本和有形賬面價值健康增長。

Just going back to deposits for a moment. Since the acquisition, we have significantly improved the quality of our deposit base, reflecting a substantial increase in the percentage of noninterest-bearing demand went from 17% to more than 21% today as well as a reduction in brokers, which declined from a high of 12% of total assets to just 6% today.

我們先回到存款的話題。自收購以來，我們的存款基礎品質顯著提高，無息需求佔比從 17% 大幅增長至如今的 21% 以上，同時經紀商數量也從佔總資產的 12% 降至如今的 6%。

Now for the quarter, our operating PPNR percentage grew sequentially by nearly 10%. That was the fifth consecutive increase, while earnings were further augmented by a lower provision for credit losses and a reduced effective tax rate. Putting it all together, operating earnings for the current quarter represents an 18.6% increase sequentially over the third quarter.

本季度，我們的營業淨利潤率較上季成長近 10%。這是連續第五次成長，同時，信貸損失準備金減少和實際稅率降低也進一步提高了收益。綜合來看，本季營業利潤比第三季季增 18.6%。

This drove our quarterly operating return on assets all the way up to 1.24% and a return on tangible common equity to 14.3%. And while we expect these performance metrics to moderate in the first quarter, we anticipate a quick return to an upward trend. Future earnings and performance returns will be driven higher by ongoing margin expansion, improved operating efficiencies and modest loan portfolio growth, and increased noninterest income.

這使得我們的季度經營資產回報率高達 1.24%，有形普通股權益回報率高達 14.3%。雖然我們預計這些業績指標在第一季會有所放緩，但我們預計會迅速恢復上升趨勢。未來收益和業績回報將受到利潤率持續擴張、營運效率提高、貸款組合溫和成長以及非利息收入增加的推動。

Now the margin expansion this quarter stemmed from three key factors. First, we had a decline in our cost of deposits following the Fed rate cuts. Second, the redemption of high coupon subordinated debt late in last year's third quarter was an action that was delayed by the merger. And lastly, our liability-sensitive position where rate cuts favorably impact our deposit costs without a reduction in loan yields.

本季利潤率的擴張主要源自於三個關鍵因素。首先，聯準會降息後，我們的存款成本下降。第二，去年第三季末贖回高利次級債務的行動因合併而延後。最後，我們是一家負債敏感型企業，降息會對我們的存款成本產生有利影響，但不會降低貸款收益率。

2026 guidance on the net interest margin is as follows. I'm going to get specific here, but keep in mind, there are many uncontrollable factors that can impact the margin. First, were likely to be up by 5 basis points in the first quarter, putting us in the low 3.30s. Then we should see 5 basis points of improvement for every 25 basis points of Fed rate cut, not sure where there's going to only be 1 or 2 coming in '26.

2026 年淨利差指引如下。接下來我會具體說明，但請記住，有許多不可控因素會影響利潤率。首先，第一季利率可能會上漲5個基點，達到3.30美元左右。然後，聯準會每降息25個基點，利率應該會提高5個基點，但我不確定2026年聯準會會降息1到2次。

In addition, we should see 5 basis points improvement per quarter due to higher loan yields that is not going to kick in really until the midyear -- until midyear. Now partially offsetting those, we could see 5 basis points of contraction due to a potential preferred redemption, which would lower margin in the fourth quarter, but it would actually improve EPS.

此外，由於貸款收益率上升，我們應該會看到每季改善 5 個基點，但這要到年中才會真正顯現出來。現在，部分抵消這些影響的是，由於潛在的優先股贖回，我們可能會看到 5 個基點的收縮，這將降低第四季度的利潤率，但實際上會提高每股盈餘。

Now let me turn to operating expenses. We continue to drive efficiencies related to the merger. And following a detailed review of our footprint, we have decided to close five branches and due to proactive client engagement, which we always know we do not anticipate measurable deposit runoff. And while future branch closures are always possible, no decisions have been made for 2026. We also anticipate realizing further synergies by optimizing our staff count over the coming year, even as we strategically hire new talent in revenue-producing and back-office operations.

現在讓我談談營運費用。我們將持續推進與合併相關的效率提升工作。經過對我們的業務佈局進行詳細審查，我們決定關閉五家分行。由於我們積極主動地與客戶互動，我們始終相信不會有明顯的存款流失。雖然未來仍有可能關閉分支機構，但尚未就 2026 年做出任何決定。我們也預計，在未來一年中，透過優化員工人數，我們將實現進一步的協同效應，同時我們將有策略地招募創收和後台營運的新人才。

Now for OpEx-specific guidance, including the additional efficiencies identified, the objective I have right now calls for a 4% increase in quarter four '26 from the current quarter, and that increase would occur over the course of 2026.

現在，關於營運支出的具體指導，包括已確定的額外效率，我目前的目標是到 2026 年第四季比當前季度增長 4%，並且這一增長將在 2026 年期間實現。

Loan originations have been robust all year and we anticipate this continuing in 2026. Our philosophy focuses on maintaining appropriate risk-adjusted loan spreads and value-enhancing client relationships. So this, combined with a significant portion of our portfolio maturing or repricing in 2026 and '27, leads us to expect higher than typical payoffs. Consequently, we now anticipate a more modest loan portfolio increase in the 3% to 5% range.

今年以來，貸款發放一直保持強勁勢頭，我們預計這種情況將在 2026 年繼續下去。我們的理念是維持適當的風險調整後貸款利差，並提升客戶關係的價值。因此，再加上我們投資組合中很大一部分將在 2026 年和 2027 年到期或重新定價，我們預計收益將高於往常。因此，我們現在預計貸款組合增幅將較為溫和，在 3% 至 5% 的範圍內。

In regard to growth in noninterest income, I am aware that we have fallen a bit short of my prior guidance. But with the pipeline of SBA loan sales building, now we're pretty confident of more than $4 million in loan sale gains in 2026, and I'll provide updates throughout the year on that.

關於非利息收入的成長，我意識到我們未能達到我先前的預期。但隨著 SBA 貸款銷售管道的不斷完善，我們現在相當有信心在 2026 年獲得超過 400 萬美元的貸款銷售收益，我將在今年全年提供相關更新資訊。

Now turning to the allowance loan losses. We recorded a relatively low provision this quarter. The reasons for this were multifaceted. First, the CECL models economic projections improved slightly. Second, we recalibrated loss drivers to align with a new and larger peer group. And finally, we've worked out several PCD loans at values exceeding merger markdowns, and that resulted in favorable reserve releases. There was a slight increase in the nonperforming asset ratio to 0.33 from 0.28 a quarter ago due to one multifamily loan relationship.

現在來看貸款損失。本季我們提列的撥備相對較低。造成這種情況的原因有很多。首先，CECL模型的經濟預測略有改善。其次，我們重新調整了損失驅動因素，使其與新的、更大的同儕群體保持一致。最後，我們以高於合併減損額的價格處理了幾筆 PCD 貸款，從而獲得了有利的準備金釋放。由於一筆多戶住宅貸款關係，不良資產率從上一季的 0.28 略微上升至 0.33。

Having said that, and not included in the year-end ratio is a multifamily market that occurred in January, which brought total nonaccruals back down to the lower level. Going forward, I don't see any significant change in the level impaired loans, but as always the case, these levels can vary from quarter-to-quarter. One thing I can tell you is we always try to get ahead of any issues with conservative valuation adjustments.

話雖如此，但年末比率中並未包含 1 月發生的多戶住宅市場，這使得總非應計項目回落到較低水準。展望未來，我認為不良貸款水平不會發生任何重大變化，但一如既往，這些水平可能會因季度而異。我可以告訴你們的是，我們總是試圖透過保守的估值調整來提前解決任何問題。

In terms of the effective tax rate, which I mentioned before, it was adjusted downward for the quarter to 26% that was due to the true-up of our deferred tax assets, largely having to do with the merger, but we expect the go-forward rate of 28%.

至於我之前提到的實際稅率，由於我們遞延所得稅資產的調整（主要與合併有關），本季已下調至 26%，但我們預計未來的稅率將為 28%。

Capital continues to strengthen. Our tangible common equity ratio has steadily increased to 8.62 as of year-end. This strong capital position gives us the opportunity to increase our dividends we engage in share repurchases, and we're building firepower for opportunistic M&A.

資本持續走強。截至年末，我們的有形普通股權益比率穩定上升至 8.62。強大的資本實力使我們有機會透過股票回購來增加股息，並且我們正在積蓄力量進行機會主義的併購。

I also want to mention that we've always placed a great deal of importance and focus on tangible book value per share, and at $23.52 which is where we are at year-end, we anticipate returning to premerger levels within one year of the June merger completion.

我還想提一下，我們一直非常重視每股有形帳面價值，目前每股帳面價值為 23.52 美元（這是我們年底的水平），我們預計在 6 月合併完成後一年內，股價將恢復到合併前的水平。

Before turning over -- back over to Frank, I do believe we are well positioned to deliver best-in-class results while continuing to capitalize on prudent growth opportunities. And that to me makes our stock one of the most compelling investment opportunities out there. And back to you, Frank.

在把麥克風交還給弗蘭克之前，我相信我們已經做好充分準備，在繼續把握審慎增長機會的同時，取得一流的業績。在我看來，這使得我們的股票成為市場上最具吸引力的投資機會之一。現在把鏡頭交給你，法蘭克。

Thank you, Bill. With a full balance sheet, a top-tier team and expanded footprint, a 21-year track record of strategic execution, and growing market dynamics, we've never been more competitively positioned.

謝謝你，比爾。憑藉著完善的資產負債表、一流的團隊和不斷擴大的業務範圍、21 年的策略執行記錄以及不斷增長的市場動態，我們從未像現在這樣擁有如此強大的競爭力。

Operationally, we're maintaining rigorous discipline around product pricing and remain diligently focused on managing our balance sheet in a mature and strategic way. That means prioritizing balance sheet optimization while leveraging our size and scale to support sustainable, moderate growth.

在營運方面，我們對產品定價保持嚴格的紀律，並繼續以成熟和策略性的方式認真管理我們的資產負債表。這意味著要優先優化資產負債表，同時利用我們的規模優勢來支持可持續的、適度的成長。

At the same time, we're consistently recognized as one of the most efficient banks in the industry and that focus remains unwavering. We'll also continue to innovate while maintaining disciplined execution around true relationship-based banking. Collectively, we believe these efforts are driving better financial results generating meaningful shareholder value, and as Bill highlighted, making us one of the most compelling investment opportunities.

同時，我們一直被公認為業內效率最高的銀行之一，而這一目標也始終不變。我們將繼續創新，同時保持以客戶關係為導向的銀行業務的嚴謹執行。我們相信，這些努力共同推動了更好的財務業績，為股東創造了有意義的價值，正如比爾所強調的那樣，這使我們成為最具吸引力的投資機會之一。

As always, we appreciate your interest in ConnectOne Bancorp, and thanks again for joining us today.

一如既往，我們感謝您對 ConnectOne Bancorp 的關注，再次感謝您今天加入我們。

And with that, I'd like to turn it over for your questions. Operator?

那麼，接下來就交給你們提問吧。操作員？

(Operator Instructions) Feddie Strickland, Hovde Group.

（操作說明）Feddie Strickland，Hovde 集團。

Hey. Good morning. Just wanted to touch on something you missed in your opening comments, Bill, you talked about maybe the preferred being redeemed later this year. Can you speak a little more broadly about how you view the capital stack today and where you'd like it to optimally be?

嘿。早安.比爾，我只是想補充你在開場白中遺漏的一點，你提到優先股可能會在今年晚些時候兌現。您能否更廣泛地談談您如何看待當前的資本結構，以及您希望它達到最佳狀態？

Well, we really do focus on tangible common equity at the end of the day. We've been trying to get that ratio back to 9%. We're getting very close. And at that level, it really opens us up to as I said before, potential for dividend increases, stock buybacks and a position -- better position for M&A.

歸根究底，我們真正關注的是有形的普通股權益。我們一直在努力將這個比例恢復到 9%。我們離目標越來越近了。正如我之前所說，在這種水準上，我們確實有機會提高股利、回購股票，並處於更有利的併購地位。

And on M&A, I mean, do you view that likelihood is a little greater in 2026 than maybe in the past? How conversations gone there? And just how do you view that versus other forms of capital return?

至於併購，我的意思是，您是否認為2026年併購的可能性會比過去更大？你們的談話進行得怎麼樣？那麼，您如何看待這種回報方式與其他形式的資本回報相比呢？

Well, it really depends. As you know, M&A is heating up a little bit out there. The lots of transactions to look at, we've always been financially disciplined. And we, of course, take a look at the value, the IRR of a transaction versus the IRR buying back our stock. So all the pieces have to fall online in order for us to do a transaction. I think we've got a pretty good track record there.

嗯，這真的要看情況。如你所知，目前的併購活動正在升溫。有很多交易需要處理，但我們一直都嚴格遵守財務紀律。當然，我們也會檢視其價值，即交易的內部報酬率 (IRR) 與回購我們股票的內部報酬率 (IRR) 之間的比較。所以，所有環節都必須在線上順利進行，我們才能完成交易。我認為我們在這方面取得了相當不錯的成績。

Frank, if you wanted to add anything to that comment?

法蘭克，你還有什麼要補充的嗎？

Yeah. I mean I think it's pretty obvious. There's a lot more activity going on in the marketplace for a variety of reasons, but I don't think that really changes very much the way we look at M&A, that may potentially move a few sellers into our sites. But overall, we're focused pretty much in market and again, looking to be very disciplined around what makes sense for us to do.

是的。我的意思是，我覺得這很明顯。由於各種原因，市場上的活動更加活躍，但我認為這並不會真正改變我們看待併購的方式，這可能會促使一些賣家進入我們的網站。但總的來說，我們主要關注市場，並且再次強調，我們會非常自律地去做對我們來說有意義的事情。

And just one quick follow-up on the cash balances piece. Do we see that getting deployed again in the loans this quarter, maybe earning assets are a little slower in growth?

關於現金餘額那部分，我還有一個後續問題。我們是否看到本季貸款業務再次出現這種情況，也許獲利資產的成長速度會稍慢一些？

Yes, exactly. So we'll continue to see more cash transition into loan balances. So higher growth in loans than in assets.

是的，正是如此。因此，我們將繼續看到更多現金流入貸款餘額。因此，貸款成長高於資產成長。

Great. Thanks for taking my questions.

偉大的。謝謝您回答我的問題。

Tim Switzer, KBW.

提姆‧斯威策，KBW。

Hey. Good morning. Thanks for taking my questions.

嘿。早安.謝謝您回答我的問題。

Hey, Tim.

嘿，提姆。

My first one is on the trajectory of the expense outlook. I appreciate the color on 4% year over year by Q4. But what is the timing of this branch rationalization and the new hires? And -- is that all mostly Q1, Q2 and then do expenses just move sequentially higher each quarter as we move through the year?

我的第一個問題是支出前景的軌跡。我欣賞第四季同比 4% 的成長。但此次分公司精簡和新進員工招募的具體時間安排是怎樣的？——這些費用主要集中在第一季和第二季嗎？然後隨著時間的推移，每季的費用會逐一遞增嗎？

Yeah. Good question. If you're trying to do your model as precisely as possible. that brand closure isn't going to occur until the end of the first quarter. And the staff changes might not take place.

是的。問得好。如果你想盡可能精確地建立模型，那麼品牌關閉要到第一季末才會發生。而且人員變動可能不會發生。

So after a quarter, middle of the year. So I would say that the expense increase will step up a little bit more in quarter one and then flatten out.

所以，一個季度後，也就是年中。所以我認為，第一季支出成長幅度會略有上升，然後趨於平穩。

Got you. Okay. That's great. And then the other question I had is on -- the other question I had was on deposit competition. We've been hearing about rising deposit costs and a little bit more pressure. You guys obviously have had pretty good ability to move deposit rates lower, but are you finding that more difficult lately?

抓到你了。好的。那太棒了。我還有一個問題，是關於存款競爭的。我們一直聽說押金成本上漲，而且壓力也略有增加。你們顯然一直有能力降低存款利率，但最近是否發現這方面越來越困難了？

I think we've seen a little bit of that, that the competition has heated up. We monitor that very carefully. And to the extent we're losing -- if we think we're losing deposits on rates, we'll make adjustments there. So my margin projection for the year takes that into account. In the best case, our margin can be much higher than it is today, but more likely than not, we're probably in the 3.35% to 3.40% range by year-end.

我認為我們已經看到了一些跡象，競爭已經白熱化了。我們會非常密切地監控這一點。如果我們認為利率導致存款流失，我們將對此進行調整。因此，我今年的利潤率預測已經考慮到了這一點。最好的情況是，我們的利潤率會比現在高得多，但更有可能的是，到年底，我們的利潤率可能會在 3.35% 到 3.40% 之間。

Okay. Got it. That's really helpful. Thank you.

好的。知道了。這真的很有幫助。謝謝。

Mark Fitzgibbon, Piper Sandler.

馬克·菲茨吉本，派珀·桑德勒。

Hey, guys. Good morning.

嘿，夥計們。早安.

Hey, Mark. Glad to have you on the call.

嘿，馬克。很高興你能參加通話。

Thank you. I guess I was curious, could you share with us perhaps the size, complexion, and maybe average rate of your loan pipeline?

謝謝。我很好奇，您能否和我們分享一下您的貸款業務規模、情況以及平均利率？

Yes. So which was the size, we have this $600 million -- about $600 million is in the pipeline. -- and that rate -- that average weighted rate is 6.2%.

是的。所以規模是多少呢？我們有大約6億美元——大約6億美元正在籌備中。 ——而利率——平均加權比率是6.2%。

Okay. And is it mostly commercial real estate construction? Or what does the mix look like?

好的。而且主要都是商業地產建設嗎？或者說，混合後的樣子是什麼樣的呢？

It's a real mix similar to what's on our composition today.

這和我們今天創作的曲目風格非常相似。

Okay. And then I was curious, are you seeing much of a difference in terms of the loan and deposit growth activity between the New Jersey franchise and the Long Island franchise?

好的。然後我很好奇，您是否發現新澤西州分行和長島分行在貸款和存款增長活動方面有很大的不同？

I don't think so. Frank, did you have any thoughts on that?

我不這麼認為。弗蘭克，你對此有什麼看法？

Yeah. I mean I would say there may be some skewed interest to the Long Island market only because a lot of the products and services that ConnectOne provides warrant being provided by the first Long Island folks. And so there may be some additional opportunities there within the existing client base. I think once we capitalize on all of that opportunity that's out there, I think you'll see the balance sheet growth relative to the composition we have today across all our markets.

是的。我的意思是，我認為人們對長島市場的興趣可能存在一些偏差，僅僅是因為 ConnectOne 提供的許多產品和服務都應該由長島本地人來提供。因此，在現有客戶群中可能存在一些額外的機會。我認為，一旦我們充分利用所有這些機會，你就會發現，相對於我們目前在所有市場上的資產負債表組成，我們的資產負債表將會成長。

Great.

偉大的。

Mark, we had early gains in deposits at Long Island. So between the closing of the transaction June 1 and June 30, we had significant deposit increases at the Long Island part of the franchise.

馬克，我們在長島的存款早期就獲得了收益。因此，從 6 月 1 日交易完成到 6 月 30 日，我們在長島特許經營部分的存款大幅增加。

Okay. And then lastly for me is on the provision. There's obviously a lot of puts and takes, and I heard your comments on the call. We've had some volatility in that line related to the deal, et cetera. I mean, based on the pipeline that you have and your perception that credit is going to stay strong, should we be expecting provisions in the $4 million to $5 million a quarter range, assuming no surprises?

好的。最後，對我來說是關於供應的問題。顯然有很多買賣雙方，我在電話會議上聽到了你的評論。由於交易等原因，該板塊出現了一些波動。我的意思是，根據你們現有的項目儲備以及你們對信貸狀況將保持強勁的看法，假設沒有意外情況，我們是否應該預期每個季度撥備在 400 萬至 500 萬美元之間？

I'm pretty good with what the Street estimates are. I think it might be a little bit harder than that you said $4 million to $5 million? $4 million to $6 million, maybe more like $5 million to $6 million would be my projection. It's hard to tell, lot of moving parts, okay? But there was definitely -- a part of the reduction was nonrecurring, okay, for the quarter.

我對華爾街的預測相當準確。我覺得可能比你說的400萬到500萬美元還要難？我的預測是400萬到600萬美元，或許更接近500萬到600萬美元。很難說，牽涉到很多方面，懂嗎？但可以肯定的是，部分減幅是非經常性的，好吧，就本季而言。

Got it. Thank you.

知道了。謝謝。

Daniel Tamayo, Raymond James.

Daniel Tamayo，Raymond James。

Thanks. Good morning, Frank. Good morning, Bill.

謝謝。早安，弗蘭克。早安，比爾。

Hey, Danny. How are you?

嘿，丹尼。你好嗎？

Doing well. Thanks. I guess -- so is there a chance that deposit growth exceeds loan growth this year, given the slower loan growth guide from the payoffs?

一切順利。謝謝。我猜——鑑於貸款成長速度放緩，今年存款成長超過貸款成長的可能性有多大？

Yeah, I think that is a possibility, but more likely than not, if I just had to project, it would be about equal.

是的，我認為這是一種可能性，但如果讓我預測的話，更有可能的是，兩者數量差不多。

Okay. And then I got on late, so I apologize if this was mentioned already, but the deposit declined in the fourth quarter. But I guess you just said that you had some pretty good gains in the Long Island franchise post close. So my question was going to be, is that related to the acquisition, if not, what -- deposit decline --

好的。然後我來晚了，所以如果之前已經提到過這件事，我先道個歉，但是第四季度存款下降了。但我想你剛才說過，在長島特許經營權關閉後，你們取得了一些相當不錯的收益。所以我的問題是，這是否與收購有關？如果不是，那又是什麼原因導致的──存款下降--

No, that little anomaly, if you will, has to do with that we took the client deposits and used it to pay off broker deposits. So we're focused on quality of our deposit base. And I think that's big determinant and evaluation of a bank is the quality of the deposit base. So we are focused on that.

不，如果你願意這麼稱呼這個小異常狀況的話，是因為我們挪用了客戶的存款來償還經紀人的存款。所以我們專注於提高存款基礎的品質。我認為，存款基礎的品質是衡量銀行的重要決定因素和評估標準。所以我們現在專注於此。

Obviously, earnings are important, right, and growth is important. But we are focusing on smart, profitable growth, quality of the balance sheet, and return metrics.

顯然，獲利很重要，對吧，成長也很重要。但我們專注於穩健、獲利的成長、資產負債表的品質以及回報指標。

Understood. And then I guess a clarification on your margin guidance, which was great, very specific. So I think I get everything except the 5 basis points from loan yields that you mentioned we should think about that? And I think you said starting midyear or second quarter. That's a gradual build to that overall 5 basis points. Is that the way to think about that?

明白了。然後，我想請您澄清一下利潤率指引，這非常好，非常具體。所以，除了您提到的貸款收益率的5個基點需要我們考慮之外，我想我都明白了？我想你說過是從年中或第二季開始。這是逐步增加到總共 5 個基點的過程。是這樣想的嗎？

Well, It's like -- it's about 5 basis points a quarter for each of the third and fourth quarter is what I'm projecting right now, okay? The amount of loans repricing are skewed towards the latter half of the year, and that's why we are pushing that aspect of the margin increase out, okay?

嗯，目前我的預測是，第三季和第四季每季大約會下降 5 個基點，好嗎？貸款重新定價的規模集中在下半年，因此我們將利潤率提高的這一部分推遲了，明白嗎？

The second thing is there's going to be pressure on those repricings. Contractually, the repricings are significant, but contractually, might not match market, right. Contractually, might not match borrowers who say don't need to take the loan, but see that the rate is higher and they're just going to pay the loan off, and we've started to see that happen.

第二點是，這些重新定價將會面臨壓力。從合約角度來看，重新定價意義重大，但從合約角度來看，可能與市場價格不符，對吧。從合約角度來看，這可能無法滿足那些聲稱不需要貸款的借款人，但他們發現利率較高，於是決定償還貸款，我們已經開始看到這種情況發生。

So the actual contractual that might be in our ALCO model doesn't necessary match or probably overstates what the margin widening will be. And so I've tempered our margin guidance because of that.

因此，我們 ALCO 模型中實際的合約條款未必與利潤率擴大的幅度相符，或者可能高估了利潤率擴大的幅度。因此，我相應地調整了我們的利潤率預期。

Understood. Okay.

明白了。好的。

Directionally, everything is plunging in the right direction.

從方向上看，一切都朝著正確的方向發展。

Got it. Okay. All right. Thanks for the color. Appreciate that.

知道了。好的。好的。謝謝你提供的色彩。謝謝。

(Operator Instructions) Matt Breese, Stephens Inc.

（操作說明）Matt Breese，Stephens Inc.

Hey. Good morning.

嘿。早安.

Hi, Matt.

嗨，馬特。

Good morning, Matt.

早安，馬特。

Good morning. I was hoping if we could just touch on the updated loan growth guide. You had also mentioned some payoff or prepayment activity. What's driving that? Are you seeing spread compression better offers for your clients from the agencies and insurance companies. We've heard quite a bit of that this quarter.

早安.我希望我們能簡單談談更新後的貸款成長指南。您也提到了一些償還或預付款的活動。是什麼原因導致這種情況？您是否發現代理商和保險公司正在壓縮價差，從而為您的客戶提供更優惠的價格？本季我們已經聽到了不少類似的說法。

And then, Bill, you had mentioned the pipeline both in amount and rates, how does that look relative to last quarter or a year ago? I guess I'm trying to get a better idea of why with everything and all the chess pieces where they are, why there's not a little bit better loan growth outlook for the year?

比爾，你剛才提到了管道的數量和輸送速度，那麼與上個季度或一年前相比，情況如何？我想弄清楚的是，在目前這種情況下，為什麼貸款成長前景沒有好轉一些？

Yes. I think it's self-explanatory. The spread the loan rates are a little bit lower than what was before. A lot of it has to do with competition out there. and we continue to allow loans that are non-relationship-based to drift off the balance sheet.

是的。我覺得這無需解釋。貸款利率的利差比以前略低。這很大程度與市場競爭有關。我們仍然允許那些與客戶關係無關的貸款從資產負債表中移除。

So I think some of your projections, Matt, probably are may be overly optimistic in terms of us achieving contractual repricing at the maximum amount. And I think it's smarter to temper that a little bit and be a little bit more conservative. On the upside, what you have, I think, is accurate, okay? That would be the upside. But more conservatively speaking, more like it is a little bit lower in terms of growth and margin expansion.

所以我覺得馬特，你的一些預測可能過於樂觀了，尤其是在我們能否實現合約規定的最高重新定價方面。我認為更明智的做法是稍微克制一下，更保守一點。從好的方面來說，我認為你掌握的資訊是準確的，好嗎？那算是好處吧。但更保守地說，就成長和利潤率擴張而言，它可能會略低一些。

Got it. Okay. Yes. And then, Frank, you had mentioned additional efficiencies. I'd love to get your more holistic view on the expense base.

知道了。好的。是的。法蘭克，你之前也提到提高效率。我很想了解您對費用構成更全面的看法。

There's a little bit of growth, but how are you using the newer technologies available to you? Have you test run any AI how productive, how impactful is that? And how do you think about operating leverage over the next couple of years?

雖然略有成長，但您是如何利用現有的新技術的呢？你們測試過人工智慧嗎？它的效率和影響力如何？您如何看待未來幾年的經營槓桿效應？

I think it's going to be terrific, Matt. We've incorporated a number of leading technologies in the company going back years. And many of those are taking advantage of AI. Look, I'm not a big fan of talking about how great we're going to be utilizing AI.

我覺得會非常棒，馬特。多年來，我們公司一直採用多項領先技術。其中許多企業都在利用人工智慧。你看，我不太喜歡談論我們將如何出色地利用人工智慧。

But the reality is every vendor, every partner we have is incorporating artificial intelligence into their systems which is just naturally making a lot of the processes better if you're utilizing those types of systems. It also forces us to think in that way and provide for a foundation here at ConnectOne, which is we've always been utilizing technology to replace labor.

但現實情況是，我們所有的供應商、合作夥伴都在將人工智慧融入他們的系統中，如果你使用這些類型的系統，自然而然地會讓很多流程變得更好。這也迫使我們以這種方式思考，並為 ConnectOne 奠定基礎，那就是我們一直以來都在利用科技來取代勞動力。

And so not only are we becoming more efficient internally, but the vendors that we partnered with are also becoming more efficient. So I think we can grow the balance sheet without significant additions other than revenue-producing people, people who are creating those relationships that we highly value. But all of the back-office functionality and the ability to serve our clients is just getting more efficient in every single thing we do.

因此，不僅我們內部的效率提高了，而且與我們合作的供應商的效率也提高了。所以我認為，除了能創造收入的人員、能建立我們高度重視的人際關係的人員之外，我們無需進行重大人員擴充就能擴大資產負債表。但是，我們所做的每一件事，包括後台營運和客戶服務能力，都在變得越來越有效率。

Now we've made a lot of investments over the years. relative to picking those systems that are probably going to be the winners to allow us to take full advantage of those types of efficiencies. It's what we're focused on. It's why we're in the top 1% of all banks in the country relative to efficiency ratio even after doing this acquisition with First of Long Island, which dramatically expanded our retail branch presence.

多年來，我們投入了大量資金，用於選擇那些可能最終勝出的系統，以便充分利用這些效率優勢。這就是我們關注的重點。正因為如此，即使在收購了長島第一銀行之後，我們的零售分行數量大幅增加，我們的效率比率仍然位居全國所有銀行的前 1%。

As I mentioned on the call, we're looking to rationalize that over time and be able to provide our clients a first-class experience but be able to do it with the technological advantages that keep us in the lane of gaining operational leverage and operational efficiencies over time.

正如我在電話會議中提到的，我們希望隨著時間的推移，能夠合理化這一點，並能夠為客戶提供一流的體驗，同時利用技術優勢，使我們始終保持在獲得營運槓桿和營運效率的軌道上。

And then one thing we've heard a lot about with these newer technologies is being able to use them to your point on back office compliance but even BSA/AML, know your customer type applications. Are you seeing the regulators adopt this as well? Or are they okay with you all trying to apply it there, are they onboard with that transition?

我們經常聽到關於這些新技術的一點是，它們不僅可以用於後台合規，還可以用於 BSA/AML、了解你的客戶等類型的應用程式。您是否看到監管機構也採納了這種做法？或者他們是否同意你們嘗試在那裡應用它，他們是否接受這種轉變？

Yeah. I think they are, Matt. I think they recognize the changes that are taking place. Of course, there's always some skepticism relative to totally eliminating or creating what they perceive to be potentially a black box scenario where they can't really understand how something is happening. So there's a fine line there. And I do think that there is some limitations there as to how far we can go at this point in time. But overall, I don't believe we've been stopped or even been curtailed in any effort that we've tried to put forward.

是的。我覺得是的，馬特。我認為他們意識到了正在發生的變化。當然，對於完全消除或創造他們認為可能是一個黑盒子的情況（他們無法真正理解事情是如何發生的），總是會有一些懷疑。所以這其中的界線很微妙。而且我認為，就目前而言，我們能走多遠是有限制的。但總的來說，我認為我們提出的任何努力都沒有被阻止，甚至沒有受到任何限制。

But I will tell you this, I used to say this just about technology in general. You just can't -- you can't buy AI in a box and just open the box and turn it on and plug it and it doesn't work that way. There needs to be to gain efficiencies and to be able to get that leverage that we're talking about, you got to have a holistic approach across the entire company to have good data, to have systems that speak to each other, to have all kinds of operational efficiencies that are already built into your system to take advantage or full advantage of some of these newer technologies.

但我得告訴你，我以前常對科技領域發表這種看法。你不可能－你不能買個裝在盒子裡的AI，打開盒子，打開電源，插上電源，它就那樣工作了。要提高效率並獲得我們所說的槓桿作用，就必須在整個公司採取整體方法，擁有良好的數據，擁有可以相互溝通的系統，以及各種已經內建在系統中的運營效率，以便利用或充分利用一些新技術。

And so I think we're doing a good job of managing that process going forward and being able to extract those types of efficiencies. At the same time, we're able to grow our ability to get in front of more clients. And so the more we can spend time in the field meeting with and going back to old world technology. I tell everybody go out and have 50 cups of coffee, that's what brings in new business, I think the better off we're going to be.

所以我認為我們很好地管理了接下來的流程，並且能夠提高這些效率。同時，我們也能夠提升接觸更多客戶的能力。因此，我們應該花更多的時間到實地考察，與舊世界的技術進行交流，並回歸舊世界的技術。我告訴大家出去喝 50 杯咖啡，這樣才能帶來新業務，我認為我們的情況會越來越好。

Appreciate that. Just last one is, you discussed M&A a little bit. Given your size now at $14 billion, is there a lower bound of yield that just doesn't make sense anymore? And then secondly, maybe you could just speak to what markets or contiguous markets would be interesting to you or oppositely, is there something in market that might be more of a financial deal that you'd be interested in?

謝謝。最後一個問題，您剛才稍微談到了併購。鑑於貴公司目前的規模已達 140 億美元，是否存在一個收益率的下限，超過這個下限就無法繼續獲利了？其次，您能否談談您對哪些市場或鄰近市場感興趣？或者反過來，市場上是否有您更感興趣的金融交易？

Yeah. Matt, I think it's hard to set a lower bound. I mean like I could envision a really small transaction that could be somehow transformative in a particular line of business we want or there's a group of folks that we want to get. So I don't think we can evaluate opportunities solely based on size. Now of course, all things being equal and if all we're doing is adding to the balance sheet, yes, there are some scale issues relative to just wanting to do a deal that's too small and yet takes the same amount of time that something else might take.

是的。馬特，我覺得很難設定下限。我的意思是，我可以想像一筆非常小的交易，但它可能會對我們想要發展的特定業務領域或我們想要吸引的一群人產生變革性的影響。所以我認為我們不能只根據規模來評估機會。當然，如果一切條件相同，如果我們所做的只是增加資產負債表，那麼就存在一些規模問題，即我們只想做一筆規模太小的交易，但花費的時間卻與其他交易可能花費的時間相同。

But again, I think we look at these things on a one-off basis. We try to determine. Does this make sense? Will it be additive? Are there synergies going forward? Are there things that we can create real value moving forward, and that's the basis of being financially disciplined and looking how we're going to build a better valuation for the franchise in general?

但我認為我們應該把這些事情當作個案來看。我們試圖確定。這樣說得通嗎？它會有成癮性嗎？未來是否存在協同效應？未來我們能否創造真正的價值？這是財務紀律的基礎，也是我們如何為整個特許經營權建立更好估值的基礎？

As far as markets, I've been pretty consistent spot, I'll say, staying within market. Within market, though, I consider us the New York Metro market, which is a huge market. And to me, that makes the most sense I really don't want to rule anything else out. There could be something that's compelling that I haven't seen yet or that we haven't evaluated yet.

就市場而言，我的投資策略一直相當穩定，可以說，我一直都保持在市場範圍內。不過，就市場本身而言，我認為我們指的是紐約都會區市場，這是一個巨大的市場。對我來說，這是最合理的解釋，我真的不想排除其他任何可能性。可能有一些引人注目但尚未被發現或我們尚未評估的東西。

But for the -- mostly, we believe, and we have our roots based in this New York Metro Market, which, as I said, is an incredibly large market it extends beyond Philadelphia out to the western part of New Jersey all the way along the Long Island sound on both sides. So it's an enormous market.

但就我們而言——我們相信，而我們的根基也建立在這個紐約都會市場，正如我所說，這是一個非常大的市場，它從費城一直延伸到新澤西州西部，沿著長島海峽兩岸。所以這是一個巨大的市場。

To me, the most what makes the most sense is within that 100, 150-mile radius of New York City about a two-hour drive, that's be driving real fast. That's the market that I see. And of course, as I've joked before, I consider Southeast Florida to be the six bar of New York. So that I include that within the marketplace.

對我來說，最合理的範圍是在紐約市方圓 100 到 150 英里（大約兩小時車程）內，也就是說，要開得很快。這就是我看到的市場情況。當然，正如我之前開玩笑說的那樣，我認為佛羅裡達州東南部就像紐約的六個酒吧區。所以我要把它納入市場範圍。

Thank you for taking all my questions. I'll leave it there.

謝謝您耐心解答我的所有問題。我就說到這兒吧。

Great, Matt.

太好了，馬特。

Daniel Tamayo, Raymond James.

Daniel Tamayo，Raymond James。

Thanks, guys. Just a quick follow-up here. Okay. And it's for you, Bill. The first one, at least. Just wanted to clarify again on the margin, the 3.35% to 3.40% base case, I think you called it for the end of the year, by the end of the year. Does that include any rate cuts in that number?

謝謝各位。這裡再補充一點。好的。這是給你的，比爾。至少第一個是這樣。我只是想再次澄清邊際效益，3.35% 到 3.40% 的基本情況，我想你之前預測的是年底前達到這個水準。這個數字是否包含了任何降息措施？

Yeah, it probably includes one rate cut.

是的，其中可能包括一次降息。

Okay. And then for Frank, just a clarification on the buyback talk. I hear you on the 9% TCE. The way to think about that, you want to get there before you're going to do buybacks are you comfortable some buybacks with the stock price still low and more gradual uptake at 9%.

好的。然後，弗蘭克，關於回購事宜，我需要澄清一下。我明白你說的9%三氯乙烯的問題。思考這個問題的方式是，你想在進行股票回購之前達到目標，你是否能在股價仍然較低的情況下進行一些回購，並在9%的回購速度下逐步實現目標？

Hard to say. Look, I think we're on the trajectory to meet and exceed that 9% number. I feel comfortable here. I do think we want to see how the year progresses. We want to look at what else is out in the marketplace, what opportunities they really are either for organic growth or any potential M&A activity down the road.

很難說。我認為我們正朝著達到甚至超過 9% 這個目標穩步前進。我在這裡感覺很自在。我認為我們都想看看這一年會如何發展。我們想看看市場上還有哪些產品，它們究竟有哪些機會，無論是實現自然成長，或是未來進行任何潛在的併購活動。

So I think we're going to be very judicious with our capital. I think we've been good stewards of capital over time. And I think you've known us to do the right thing relative to our shareholders.

所以我認為我們會非常謹慎地使用資金。我認為我們一直以來都是優秀的資本管理者。我認為您一直都知道，我們會為股東的利益做出正確的決定。

Understood. Okay. That's all that I have -- go ahead.

明白了。好的。這就是我全部的資料了——請繼續。

Danny, I was just going to say, with the continually increase return on equity, a relatively low dividend payout ratio, and subdued growth on the balance sheet, that ratio is headed up at a good pace capital ratio.

丹尼，我正要說，隨著股本回報率的不斷提高、股息支付率相對較低以及資產負債表增長放緩，該比率（資本比率）正以良好的速度上升。

There are no further questions at this time. With that, I will now turn the call over to management for closing remarks. Please go ahead.

目前沒有其他問題了。接下來，我將把電話交給管理階層，請他們作總結發言。請繼續。

Well, I want to thank everyone again for joining us today. And certainly, we look forward to speaking with you during our first quarter conference call. And with that, please have a great day.

好的，我再次感謝大家今天蒞臨現場。當然，我們期待在第一季電話會議上與您交流。祝您今天過得愉快。

Ladies and gentlemen, this concludes today's call. We thank you for participating. You may now disconnect.

女士們、先生們，今天的電話會議到此結束。感謝您的參與。您現在可以斷開連線了。