奇波雷墨西哥燒烤 (CMG) 2022 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Good day and welcome to the Chipotle Mexican Grill Fourth Quarter 2022 Results Conference Call. (Operator Instructions) Please note, this event is being recorded.

您好，歡迎參加 Chipotle Mexican Grill 2022 年第四季業績電話會議。 （操作員指示）請注意，此活動正在錄製中。

I would now like to turn the conference over to Cindy Olsen, Head of Investor Relations and Strategy. Please go ahead.

現在，我想將會議交給投資者關係和策略主管辛蒂·奧爾森 (Cindy Olsen)。請開始。

Hello, everyone, and welcome to our fourth quarter fiscal 2022 earnings call.

大家好，歡迎參加我們的 2022 財年第四季財報電話會議。

By now, you should have access to our earnings press release. If not, it may be found on our Investor Relations website at ir.chipotle.com.

現在您應該可以訪問我們的收益新聞稿了。如果沒有，您可以造訪我們的投資者關係網站 ir.chipotle.com 查看。

I will begin by reminding you that certain statements and projections made in this presentation about our future business and financial results constitute forward-looking statements. These are based on management's current business and market expectations, and our actual results could differ materially from those projected in the forward-looking statements. Please see the risk factors contained in our annual report on Form 10-K and in our Form 10-Qs for a discussion of risks that may cause our actual results to vary from these forward-looking statements.

首先，我要提醒您，本簡報中關於我們未來業務和財務表現的某些陳述和預測構成前瞻性陳述。這些陳述和預測是基於管理階層目前的業務和市場預期，我們的實際結果可能與前瞻性陳述中的預測有重大差異。請參閱我們10-K表格年度報告和10-Q表格中包含的風險因素，以了解可能導致我們的實際結果與這些前瞻性陳述產生差異的風險。

Our discussion today will include non-GAAP financial measures. A reconciliation to GAAP measures can be found via the link included on the presentation page within the Investor Relations section of our website.

我們今天的討論將涵蓋非公認會計準則 (Non-GAAP) 財務指標。您可以透過我們網站「投資者關係」板塊中簡報頁面的連結查看與公認會計準則 (GAAP) 指標的對帳表。

We will start today's call with prepared remarks from Brian Niccol, Chairman and Chief Executive Officer; and Jack Hartung, Chief Financial and Administrative Officer, after which, we will take your questions. Our entire executive leadership team is available during the Q&A session.

今天的電話會議將以董事長兼執行長 Brian Niccol 和首席財務及行政官 Jack Hartung 的預先準備好的發言開始，之後我們將回答大家的提問。我們的整個執行領導團隊都將在問答環節中隨時待命。

And with that, I will turn the call over to Brian.

說完這些，我將把電話轉給布萊恩。

Thanks, Cindy, and good afternoon, everyone.

謝謝，辛迪，大家下午好。

We delivered another year of strong results in 2022, expanding AUVs and restaurant-level margin despite facing one of the highest inflationary periods on record and an uncertain macro environment. These results demonstrate Chipotle's resiliency driven by our talented teams, delicious food made fresh daily, convenience, customization, and of course, our tremendous value.

2022年，我們再次取得了強勁的業績，儘管面臨史上最高通膨時期之一和不確定的宏觀環境，平均每家餐廳的利潤率和平均單店營業額依然增長。這些業績展現了Chipotle的韌性，這得益於我們優秀的團隊、每日新鮮烹製的美味佳餚、便捷的服務和個性化定制，當然還有我們巨大的價值。

For the year, sales grew 14% to reach $8.6 billion driven by an 8% comp. Digital sales represented 39% of sales. Restaurant-level margin was 23.9%, an increase of 130 basis points year-over-year. Adjusted diluted EPS was $32.78, representing 29% growth over last year, and we opened 236 new restaurants, including 202 Chipotlanes.

全年銷售額成長14%，達到86億美元，較去年成長8%。線上銷售額佔銷售額的39%。餐廳利潤率為23.9%，較去年成長130個基點。調整後攤薄每股收益為32.78美元，較去年同期成長29%。我們新開了236家餐廳，其中包括202家Chipotlane餐廳。

Turning to the fourth quarter. While we are pleased with our overall growth, our results were impacted by a few factors that were unique to the quarter, including a lower-than-expected benefit from Garlic Guajillo Steak and a headwind from loyalty accounting.

談到第四季。雖然我們對整體成長感到滿意，但業績受到了本季一些特有因素的影響，包括蒜香瓜希略牛排的收益低於預期，以及會員積分會計帶來的不利影響。

For the quarter, sales grew 11% to $2.2 billion driven by a 5.6% comp. In-store sales grew by 18% over last year. Digital sales continue to represent 37% of sales. Restaurant-level margin was 24%, an increase of 380 basis points year-over-year. Adjusted diluted EPS was $8.29, representing 49% growth over last year, and we opened 100 new restaurants, including 90 Chipotlanes.

本季銷售額成長11%，達22億美元，年增5.6%。店內銷售額較去年同期成長18%。線上銷售繼續佔銷售額的37%。餐廳利潤率為24%，年增380個基點。調整後攤薄每股收益為8.29美元，較去年同期成長49%。我們新開了100家餐廳，其中包括90家Chipotlane餐廳。

Our transaction trends improved throughout the quarter as we lapped brisket, and I'm pleased to report that our underlying trends have further improved entering 2023, with transaction trends turning positive. For the first quarter, we anticipate comps in the high single-digit range.

由於牛胸肉銷售強勁，整個季度我們的交易趨勢有所改善。我很高興地報告，進入2023年，我們的基本趨勢進一步改善，交易趨勢轉為正值。我們預計第一季的可比銷售額將達到高個位數成長。

Our focus on getting back to the basics and running great restaurants is beginning to pay off, and we plan to further emphasize this in 2023. Additionally, we will continue to build upon our 5 key strategies that will help us to win today while we create the future.

我們致力於回歸本源、經營優質餐廳，這項措施已開始取得成效，我們計劃在 2023 年進一步強調這一點。此外，我們將繼續鞏固五大關鍵策略，幫助我們在創造未來的同時贏得今天的勝利。

Now let me provide an update on each of these strategies, which include: number one, running successful restaurants with a people-accountable culture that provides great Food with Integrity while delivering exceptional in-restaurant and digital experiences; number two, sustaining world-class people leadership by developing and retaining diverse talent at every level; number three, amplifying technology and innovation to drive growth and productivity at our restaurants and support centers; number four, making the brand visible, relevant and loved to improve overall guest engagement; and number five, expanding access and convenience by accelerating new restaurant openings.

現在，讓我介紹一下這些策略的最新情況，包括：第一，以對人負責的文化經營成功的餐廳，提供誠信的美食，同時帶來卓越的餐廳和數位體驗；第二，透過發展和留住各個層面的多元化人才，維持世界一流的人才領導力；第三，擴大技術和創新，推動餐廳和支持中心的增長和生產力；

Beginning with our restaurants. As we discussed on the last call, Chipotle is a restaurant business with high standards, and it is critical that we treasure the guest and deliver an exceptional experience, including great culinary and in-restaurant execution. During the pandemic, there were unforeseen challenges, such as supply outages, staffing challenges and exclusions from COVID that resulted in a need to create workarounds. We have been eliminating the workarounds and reestablishing operational standards with Project Square One while continuing to build a culture of excellence in every aspect of our business. This means ensuring all ingredients are in stock, that our teams are fully staffed and properly deployed during peak periods to drive throughput, that our delicious food is prepped and cooked on time, that we are improving throughput on the frontline and improving on time and accuracy on the digital make-line; and of course, that we are delivering exceptional customer hospitality. Project Square One has helped to lay the foundations, including training in each of these areas. We are also bringing back more shoulder-to-shoulder training.

首先從我們的餐廳開始。正如我們上次電話會議中討論的那樣，Chipotle 是一家高標準的餐飲企業，我們珍惜顧客，提供卓越的體驗，包括精湛的烹飪技藝和餐廳內部的執行力，這一點至關重要。疫情期間，我們遇到了一些意想不到的挑戰，例如供應中斷、人員不足以及疫情期間的禁入，導致我們需要製定變通方案。我們一直在透過「Square One 專案」消除這些變通方案，重建營運標準，同時繼續在業務的各個方面打造卓越的文化。這意味著要確保所有食材庫存充足；確保我們的團隊在高峰時段配備齊全並得到妥善部署，以提高產量；確保我們美味的食物按時準備和烹飪；確保我們正在提高一線員工的生產力，並提高數位化生產線的及時性和準確性；當然，我們也要提供卓越的客戶服務。 「Square One 計畫」為我們奠定了基礎，包括在上述各個領域開展培訓。我們還將恢復更多並肩作戰的訓練。

One thing that I believe everyone has learned from the pandemic is that virtual training is not the only tool needed. So we are reducing the amount of virtual training and bringing new crew members into our restaurants sooner for on-the-job training. This helps to accelerate onboarding and gives more confidence to our new crew members as they are learning by doing. Shoulder-to-shoulder training by experienced managers is an essential process.

我相信大家從疫情中都學到了一點：線上訓練並非唯一需要的工具。因此，我們正在減少線上培訓的次數，並讓新員工盡快到店進行在職培訓。這有助於加快新員工的入職速度，並在邊學邊做的過程中增強他們的自信心。經驗豐富的經理進行並肩培訓至關重要。

I'm also happy to see an improvement in turnover with December being one of our best months in the past 2 years for both hourly and salary turnover rates. And our staffing levels continue to improve with 90% of our restaurants fully staffed. This, combined with better stability, leads to more experienced teams.

我也很高興看到員工流動率有所改善，12月是過去兩年來我們員工時薪和薪資流動率最高的月份之一。我們的人員配備水準持續提升，目前90%的餐廳已實現滿員。再加上團隊穩定性的提高，我們擁有了更有經驗的團隊。

When you combine this with Project Square One training for the past 2 quarters, positive signs are emerging across the operation. We are focused on operational excellence and have intensity and collaboration to achieve it. Great people and great culinary drives performance.

結合過去兩季的「Square One」專案培訓，整個營運部門都呈現出正面的跡象。我們專注於卓越運營，並全力以赴、通力合作，以實現這一目標。優秀的人才和精湛的烹飪技藝推動著業績的提升。

And speaking of great people, I'm proud to share that in 2022, we promoted over 22,000 people, surpassing 2021, and 90% of all restaurant management roles were internal promotions. And we have tremendous growth ahead. In 2023, to open our new restaurants, we will have the opportunity to promote over 1,800 hourly manager roles, over 255 GMs and over 40 field leadership positions. And these numbers will continue to grow as we expand our restaurants by our targeted range of 8% to 10% per year.

說到優秀人才，我很自豪地告訴大家，2022年，我們晉升了超過22,000名員工，超過了2021年，其中90%的餐廳管理職位都是內部晉升。我們未來還有巨大的成長空間。 2023年，為了開設新餐廳，我們將有機會晉升超過1,800個小時工經理職位、超過255個總經理職位和超過40個現場領導職位。隨著我們以每年8%到10%的目標速度擴張餐廳，這些數字也將持續成長。

As we have said in the past, our goal is to be the employer of choice. In addition to career advancement opportunities, industry-leading benefits and competitive wages, we will continue to look for ways to improve the overall experience for our teams.

正如我們過去所說，我們的目標是成為您最理想的雇主。除了提供職涯發展機會、業界領先的福利和具競爭力的薪資外，我們還將繼續尋求提升團隊整體體驗的方法。

We know one way is to continue to invest in technology and innovation. There are a couple of new stage-gate initiatives that I'm excited to share along with an update on improvements to our app functionality. First, we are currently testing a new grill to improve the overall cooking process for our chicken and steak. The grill is much faster and has consistent execution, which lowers the learning curve significantly. Importantly, we believe it maintains our high culinary standards and can cook the chicken and steak to perfection. We look forward to further validating it through our stage-gate process.

我們知道，一種方法是繼續投資技術和創新。我很高興與大家分享一些新的階段關卡計劃，以及我們應用程式功能改進的最新進展。首先，我們目前正在測試一款新的烤架，以改善我們雞肉和牛排的整體烹飪流程。這款烤架速度更快，操作更穩定，大大降低了學習難度。重要的是，我們相信它能夠保持我們高水平的烹飪標準，並將雞肉和牛排烹飪至完美。我們期待透過階段關卡流程進一步驗證它。

And second, you may remember that in the second quarter, we announced Hyphen as one of our first investments in our Cultivate Next fund. Hyphen is a food service platform that automates the assembly of meals on the digital make-line and could help fulfill our promise to deliver on-time, accurate orders for our digital guests. This would allow our restaurant teams to focus more on our in-restaurant guests on the frontline, further improving throughput. I'm thrilled to share that together with Hyphen, we are developing our first automated digital make-line prototype, which we will test and learn on, and we expect to have it in our Cultivate center in the first half of this year.

其次，您可能還記得，我們在第二季宣布了Hyphen，這是我們Cultivate Next基金的首批投資之一。 Hyphen是一個餐飲服務平台，它能夠在數位化生產線上實現餐點的自動化組裝，這將有助於我們兌現為數位化顧客準時、準確地送達訂單的承諾。這將使我們的餐廳團隊能夠更加專注於一線的店內顧客，從而進一步提高吞吐量。我很高興地告訴大家，我們正在與Hyphen合作開發我們的第一個自動化數位化生產線原型，我們將對其進行測試和學習，並預計在今年上半年將其部署到我們的Cultivate中心。

Speaking of our digital business, it is over $3 billion in revenue and represents 39% of our sales, and we're constantly looking for ways to improve the experience for our guests. Last quarter, we started testing advanced location-based technology to enhance our app functionality. For guests who opt in, the program can engage with Chipotle app users upon arrival to our restaurants and utilize real-time data to enhance their experience with order readiness messaging, wrong pickup location detection, reminders to scan the Chipotle Rewards QR code at checkout and more.

說到我們的數位業務，其營收超過30億美元，占我們銷售額的39%。我們一直在探索提升顧客體驗的方法。上個季度，我們開始測試先進的基於位置的技術，以增強我們的應用程式功能。對於選擇加入的顧客，該計劃可以在顧客抵達餐廳時與Chipotle應用程式用戶互動，並利用即時數據，透過訂單準備就緒訊息、錯誤取餐地點檢測、結帳時掃描Chipotle獎勵二維碼提醒等功能，提升他們的用餐體驗。

The results from the stage-gate process were very encouraging, including an improvement in delivery speed, a reduction in customers going to the wrong location and an improvement in the experience for our Rewards guests, allowing them to quickly scan for their Rewards points without impacting throughput. As a result, we rolled it out nationwide last month.

階段門流程的效果非常令人鼓舞，包括配送速度的提升、顧客誤送情況的減少以及獎勵會員體驗的提升，使他們能夠快速掃描獎勵積分，而不會影響吞吐量。因此，我們上個月已在全國推廣了該流程。

Moving on to making our brand more visible, more relevant and more loved. Our Real Food for Real Athletes platform has been a success as we partner with athletes of all levels who are fans of Chipotle and focus on helping them perform their best by providing proper nutrition through real food and real ingredients.

我們將持續提升品牌知名度、相關性和受歡迎程度。 「真食物，真運動員」平台取得了巨大成功，我們與各級別的 Chipotle 愛好者運動員合作，致力於透過真正的食物和食材為他們提供合理的營養，幫助他們發揮出最佳水平。

During the fourth quarter, we teamed up with U.S. Men's National Soccer Team stars, Christian Pulisic and Weston McKennie to showcase their journey to soccer's biggest international tournament while featuring the athletes' go-to orders in our app. We also continue to leverage social media to remain relevant with our consumers, especially Gen Z. This year, we surpassed 2 million TikTok followers, which to put into context rival some of the largest brands in the world. And we were the first brand to launch on the new social media platform, BeReal.

第四季度，我們與美國國家男子足球隊球星克里斯蒂安·普利西奇和韋斯頓·麥肯尼合作，展現了他們徵戰這項足球界最高國際賽事的歷程，並在應用程序中展示了這兩位運動員的常用單品。我們也持續利用社群媒體與消費者，尤其是Z世代保持聯繫。今年，我們的TikTok粉絲超過200萬，足以與全球一些最大的品牌相提並論。我們也是首個進駐全新社群媒體平台BeReal的品牌。

Shifting to menu innovation. As we mentioned last quarter, 2023 will consist of 1 to 2 LTOs. I'm delighted to share that Chicken Al Pastore has been validated and ready to be rolled out in the near future. This new menu item is operationally simple to execute while still providing a new exciting flavor that drive transactions and sales.

轉向菜單創新。正如我們上個季度提到的，2023年將有1到2個LTO。我很高興地告訴大家，雞肉Al Pastore已經通過驗證，並將在不久的將來推出。這款新菜單操作簡單，同時仍提供令人興奮的新口味，以推動交易和銷售。

We also recently launched a new lineup of Lifestyle Bowls that cater to contemporary wellness habits of Gen Z and millennials. The lineup spans a wide range of healthy habits such as our Balanced Macros Bowl, our High Protein Bowl and our Grain Freedom Bowl. Lifestyle Bowls are a great way to show our customers that they can create balanced meals made with our existing ingredients that taste great and that they feel great eating.

我們最近也推出了一系列全新的生活風格碗，以滿足Z世代和千禧世代的現代健康習慣。該系列涵蓋了各種健康習慣，例如我們的均衡營養碗、高蛋白碗和穀物自由碗。生活風格碗能夠很好地向顧客展示，他們能夠利用我們現有的食材，做出美味又健康的均衡飲食。

Turning to our Rewards program. In 2022, we increased our Rewards members by 20% to 31.6 million. Our program continues to get more sophisticated as we better understand who our members are and serve them with relevant content, targeted offers and gamified badging to help drive transactions. In 2022, 60% of our Rewards program promotions were personalized, and we plan to increase this going forward. To drive engagement and enroll new members, we recently introduced Freepotle, which offers each Rewards member 10 personalized free rewards throughout the year.

談到我們的獎勵計劃。 2022年，我們的獎勵會員數增加了20%，達到3,160萬人。隨著我們更加了解會員，並透過提供相關內容、精準優惠和遊戲化徽章來推動交易，我們的計劃也變得越來越完善。 2022年，我們60%的獎勵計畫促銷活動實現了個人化，我們計劃在未來繼續提升這一比例。為了提升參與度並吸引新會員，我們最近推出了Freepotle，為每位獎勵會員全年提供10個個人化免費獎勵。

Our fifth strategic pillar is to expand access, and our development team has done an outstanding job of navigating headwinds such as material shortages and permitting and inspection delays while successfully opening 236 new restaurants in 2022, including 202 Chipotlanes. In fact, we opened 100 new restaurants in the fourth quarter, which was a record for the company. We also opened our 500th Chipotlane during the quarter as we expanded access and convenience through our unique digital drive-through format, and the performance of Chipotlanes continues to be strong. In fact, since we began opening Chipotles in 2018, our new restaurant productivity has improved by about 1,000 basis points. We plan to open 255 to 285 new restaurants in 2023 with over 80% including Chipotlanes.

我們的第五大戰略支柱是拓展門市。我們的開發團隊出色地克服了材料短缺、許可和檢查延遲等不利因素，並在 2022 年成功開設了 236 家新餐廳，其中包括 202 家 Chipotlane。事實上，我們在第四季度開設了 100 家新餐廳，創下了公司的新紀錄。我們還在本季度開設了第 500 家 Chipotlane，透過我們獨特的數位免下車服務模式擴大了門市的可及性和便利性，Chipotlane 的業績持續強勁。事實上，自 2018 年我們開始開設 Chipotles 以來，我們的新餐廳生產力已提高了約 1,000 個基點。我們計劃在 2023 年開設 255 至 285 家新餐廳，其中 80% 以上包括 Chipotlane。

Within our 2023 expansion plans, we will accelerate new restaurant growth in Canada and continue to open restaurants at a measured pace in Europe. In Canada, we have built out a strong local field leadership team that works closely with our U.S. team to ensure best practices and a consistent culture while adapting to local needs. We are now ready for accelerated growth and plan to add around 10 new restaurants in 2023, which will be the fastest development growth rate since we entered the Canadian market.

在我們的2023年擴張計畫中，我們將加快在加拿大新餐廳的成長，並繼續在歐洲穩步擴張餐廳。在加拿大，我們已經組建了一支強大的本地一線領導團隊，與美國團隊緊密合作，確保最佳實踐和一致的文化，同時適應當地需求。我們現已準備好加速成長，並計劃在2023年新增約10家餐廳，這將是我們進入加拿大市場以來最快的發展成長率。

We also remain encouraged by the performance in Europe despite a challenging macroeconomic backdrop. In 2023, we plan to add a few additional locations in the U.K., and we are also rolling out our digital capabilities to further expand access. We remain optimistic about the growth opportunity, and we'll continue to update on Europe's progress of the stage-gate process along the way.

儘管宏觀經濟情勢嚴峻，但我們對歐洲市場的表現依然感到鼓舞。 2023年，我們計劃在英國增設幾個辦公地點，同時也將推出數位化功能，以進一步拓展業務覆蓋範圍。我們對成長機會保持樂觀，並將持續更新歐洲市場在階段性關卡流程的進展。

In closing, I want to thank our restaurant and support center teams for another terrific year. Our focus on getting back to the basics is starting to pay off. Our teams are energized, and I'm excited to see further progress over the coming quarters. We have a long growth runway ahead with the ability to more than double our restaurant count, grow AUVs beyond $3 million and expand margins. I believe we have the right team and strategy in place, and we will remain focused on meeting the standards of excellence that make Chipotle, Chipotle.

最後，我要感謝我們的餐廳和支援中心團隊，感謝他們又一個輝煌的一年。我們致力於回歸本源的努力開始取得成效。我們的團隊充滿活力，我期待在未來幾季取得更大的進步。我們擁有長期的成長潛力，有能力將餐廳數量增加一倍以上，平均營業收入 (AUV) 超過 300 萬美元，並提高利潤率。我相信我們擁有合適的團隊和策略，我們將繼續專注於達到成就 Chipotle 的卓越標準。

And with that, I will turn it over to Jack.

說完這些，我會把麥克風交給傑克。

Thanks, Brian, and good afternoon, everyone.

謝謝，布萊恩，大家下午好。

Sales in the fourth quarter grew 11% year-over-year to reach $2.2 billion as comp sales grew 5.6%, which included about an 80 basis point headwind related to our loyalty program. In Q4 of each year, we reevaluate the estimated loyalty breakage for points that will expire. And this year, we decreased our estimate due to higher member engagement.

第四季銷售額年增11%，達到22億美元，同店銷售額成長5.6%，其中包括與忠誠度計畫相關的約80個基點的不利因素。每年第四季度，我們都會重新評估即將到期的積分的預期損失。今年，由於會員參與度提高，我們下調了預期損失。

Restaurant-level margin of 24% increased about 380 basis points compared to last year. In addition to loyalty program headwind, restaurant-level margin was impacted by a higher level of sick pay and medical claims in the quarter compared to our expectations. Earnings per share adjusted for unusual items was $8.29, representing 49% year-over-year growth. The fourth quarter had unusual expenses related to legal expenses, our previously disclosed 2018 performance share modification and corporate restructuring.

餐廳層級利潤率為24%，較去年同期成長約380個基點。除會員計畫不利因素外，本季病假薪資和醫療索賠金額高於我們的預期，也影響了餐廳層面利潤率。經過非常規項目調整後的每股盈餘為8.29美元，較去年同期成長49%。第四季出現了與法律費用、我們先前揭露的2018年業績調整以及公司重組相關的非常規支出。

Turning to our sales outlook for 2023. As Brian mentioned, we've seen the transaction trends turn positive as we remain focused on delivering a great guest experience. January comps were in the low double digits. And for Q1, factoring in momentum we've seen quarter-to-date as well as tougher comparisons as we move through the remainder of the quarter, we anticipate comp sales to be in the high single-digit range.

談到我們對2023年的銷售展望。正如Brian所提到的，由於我們始終專注於提供卓越的賓客體驗，交易趨勢已呈現積極態勢。 1月份的可比銷售額達到了兩位數的低點。考慮到第一季迄今的強勁勢頭以及本季剩餘時間更嚴峻的業績比較，我們預計可比銷售額將達到個位數的高位。

While it's difficult to forecast comps for the rest of the year, considering economic uncertainty, including the possibility of recession, we expect comps to moderate as we lap menu price increases in early Q2 and the middle of Q3.

雖然很難預測今年剩餘時間的同店銷售額，但考慮到經濟不確定性（包括經濟衰退的可能性），我們預計隨著第二季初和第三季中期菜單價格上漲，同店銷售額將會放緩。

I'll now go through the key P&L line items, beginning with cost of sales. Cost of sales in the quarter were 29.3%, a decrease of about 230 basis points from last year. The benefit of menu price increases and lower avocado prices offset elevated costs across the board, most notably in dairy, tortillas, beans, rice and salsa. In Q1, we expect our cost of sales to be in the high-29% range due to higher prices across several items, including queso, salsa, spices and oil.

現在我將逐一介紹關鍵的損益項目，首先是銷售成本。本季銷售成本為29.3%，較去年下降約230個基點。菜單價格上漲和酪梨價格下跌帶來的收益抵消了所有產品成本的上漲，尤其是在乳製品、玉米餅、豆類、大米和莎莎醬方面。由於包括起司醬、莎莎醬、香料和食用油在內的多種產品價格上漲，我們預計第一季的銷售成本將達到29%左右。

Labor costs for the quarter were 25.6%, a decrease of about 80 basis points from last year. The benefit of sales leverage was somewhat offset by wage inflation in addition to higher-than-expected sick pay and medical claims. For Q1, we expect our labor cost to improve slightly but remain in the mid-25% range due to seasonally higher employee taxes as employee taxes start the year at an elevated level due to resetting of wage caps.

本季勞動成本為25.6%，較去年下降約80個基點。銷售槓桿帶來的效益在一定程度上被工資上漲以及高於預期的病假工資和醫療索賠所抵消。我們預計第一季的勞動成本將略有改善，但仍將維持在25%左右的區間，這是由於員工所得稅的季節性上漲，因為年初由於工資上限的調整，員工所得稅處於較高水平。

Other operating costs for the quarter were 15.7%, a decrease of about 60 basis points from last year. This decrease was driven by a decline in delivery expenses due to lower delivery sales as well as sales leverage, partially offset by higher costs across several expenses, including natural gas and maintenance and repairs.

本季其他營運成本為15.7%，較去年同期下降約60個基點。下降主要由於配送銷售額下降及銷售槓桿率上升導致配送費用下降，但天然氣、維護和維修等多項費用的增加部分抵消了這一影響。

Marketing and promo costs for the quarter were 3.4%, 20 basis points below last year. In Q1, we expect marketing costs to be in the mid-3% range with the full year to come in around 3%. In Q1, other operating costs are expected to be in the low 15% range.

本季行銷和促銷成本為3.4%，比去年同期低20個基點。我們預計第一季行銷成本將在3%左右，全年將在3%左右。第一季其他營運成本預計在15%左右。

G&A for the quarter was $135 million on a GAAP basis or $129 million on a non-GAAP basis, excluding $4 million in legal expenses, $1 million related to the previously disclosed modification to our 2018 performance shares and $1 million related to transformation expenses. G&A also included $119 million in underlying G&A, $18 million related to noncash stock compensation, which includes a reduction in the estimated payout levels of our performance-based stock awards and was offset by $8 million reduction in performance-based bonus accruals.

本季的一般及行政費用（G&A）為 1.35 億美元（以 GAAP 計算），或 1.29 億美元（以非 GAAP 計算），其中不包括 400 萬美元的法律費用、100 萬美元（與先前揭露的 2018 年績效股調整相關）以及 100 萬美元（與轉型費用相關）。一般及行政費用還包括 1.19 億美元的基本一般及行政費用，以及 1800 萬美元（與非現金股票薪酬相關），其中包括基於績效的股票獎勵預計支付水平的降低，並被基於績效的獎金應計金額的減少 800 萬美元所抵消。

We expect our underlying G&A to be around $121 million in Q1 and continue to grow slightly thereafter as we make investments in technology and people to support ongoing growth. We anticipate stock comp will be around $25 million in Q1, although this amount could move up or down based on our performance and is subject to the 2023 grants, which are issued in Q1. We also expect to recognize around $7 million related to employer taxes associated with shares that vest during the quarter and $2 million for costs associated with our field leader conference in February, bringing our anticipated total G&A in Q1 to around $155 million.

我們預計第一季的基本一般行政費用 (G&A) 約為 1.21 億美元，此後將繼續小幅增長，因為我們將加大對技術和人才的投資，以支持持續增長。我們預計第一季的股票補償金額約為 2,500 萬美元，但根據我們的業績表現，該金額可能會上下浮動，並取決於第一季發放的 2023 年股票獎勵。我們也預計將確認約 700 萬美元與本季行使股票相關的雇主稅，以及 200 萬美元與 2 月領域領導者會議相關的成本，因此，我們預計第一季的 G&A 總額將達到約 1.55 億美元。

Depreciation for the quarter was $74 million or 3.4% of sales, and for the full year 2023, we expect it to inch up slightly each quarter as we open more restaurants. Our effective tax rate for Q4 was 26.3% for GAAP and 25.1% for non-GAAP. And for 2023, we continue to estimate our underlying effective tax rate will be in the 25% to 27% range, though it may vary based on discrete items.

本季折舊為 7,400 萬美元，佔銷售額的 3.4%。我們預計，隨著更多餐廳的開業，2023 年全年折舊將每季略有上升。第四季度，我們根據 GAAP 計算的有效稅率為 26.3%，根據非 GAAP 計算的有效稅率為 25.1%。我們預計，2023 年的基本有效稅率將在 25% 至 27% 之間，但具體稅率可能會因具體項目而異。

Our balance sheet remains strong as we ended the quarter with $1.3 billion in cash, restricted cash and investments with no debt, along with a $500 million untapped revolver. During the fourth quarter, we repurchased $199 million of our stock at an average price of $1,487. And we repurchased a total of $827 million in 2022, which was the largest amount ever repurchased in a single year. We increased our level of stock repurchases during the quarter when our share price fell with the market overall, and we'll continue to opportunistically repurchase our stock.

我們的資產負債表依然強勁，本季末我們持有13億美元現金、限制性現金和無負債投資，以及5億美元尚未動用的循環信貸額度。第四季度，我們以平均1487美元的價格回購了1.99億美元的股票。 2022年，我們共回購了8.27億美元，創下了單年回購金額的最高紀錄。在本季度，我們的股價跟隨市場整體下跌，我們增加了股票回購規模，我們將繼續適時回購股票。

During the quarter, our Board authorized an additional $200 million to our share authorization program. And at the end of the quarter, we had $414 million remaining. We opened a record 100 new restaurants in the fourth quarter, of which 90 had a Chipotlane, and we remain on track to open 255 to 285 new restaurants in 2023 with at least 80% including a Chipotlane.

本季度，董事會額外批准了2億美元的股票授權計畫。截至本季末，我們剩餘4.14億美元。第四季度，我們創紀錄地開設了100家新餐廳，其中90家設有Chipotlane餐廳。我們預計在2023年將開設255至285家新餐廳，其中至少有80%設有Chipotlane餐廳。

Development delays remain a headwind, including utility installations, permitting and inspection delays, construction, labor challenges and component and raw material shortages. While we expect these challenges to persist into 2023, our pipeline remains strong, and we expect to move toward the high end of the 8% to 10% openings range once these headwinds subside.

開發延誤仍然是一大挑戰，包括公用設施安裝、許可和驗收延誤、施工、勞動力挑戰以及零件和原材料短缺。雖然我們預計這些挑戰將持續到2023年，但我們的專案儲備依然強勁，一旦這些不利因素消退，我們預計專案空缺率將達到8%至10%的高端。

To conclude, we're off to a strong start in 2023 with early signs of progress from our focus on getting back to the basics of running great restaurants and treasuring our guests. While we cannot predict how the macroeconomic environment will play out over the next 12 months, we will continue to strengthen our operations and work hard to earn each and every customer visit.

總而言之，我們在2023年迎來了一個強勁的開局，我們專注於回歸經營優質餐廳的根本，並珍惜顧客，這已初顯成效。雖然我們無法預測未來12個月的宏觀經濟環境將如何發展，但我們將繼續加強運營，努力贏得每位顧客的光臨。

I want to thank our restaurant teams and our restaurant support teams for all their hard work this year and for their commitment to Chipotle.

我要感謝我們的餐廳團隊和餐廳支援團隊今年的辛勤工作以及他們對 Chipotle 的承諾。

With that, we're happy to take your questions.

我們很樂意回答您的問題。

(Operator Instructions) And the first question will be from David Tarantino from Baird.

（操作員指示）第一個問題來自貝爾德的戴維·塔倫蒂諾。

I have a couple of questions about your commentary on traffic trends. I think, Brian, you mentioned that underlying traffic trends have turned positive, if I heard that correctly. So I'm wondering what you meant by the word underlying, if you're making some adjustments to that. And I know January had a lot of puts and takes with respect to the comparison against Omicron last year, and then perhaps we had some favorable weather this year. So I'm wondering, it seems like you're linking some of the traffic progress towards some of your internal initiatives. And I'm wondering how you're adjusting for some of the factors that maybe were outside your control.

關於您對流量趨勢的評論，我有幾個問題。 Brian，如果沒聽錯的話，您提到基礎流量趨勢已經轉為正值。所以我想知道您所說的“基礎”是什麼意思，您是否對此做了一些調整。我知道，與去年的Omicron相比，一月份有很多波動，而且今年的天氣可能會比較好。所以我想知道，您似乎將一些流量成長與您的一些內部舉措聯繫起來了。我想知道您是如何調整一些可能超出您控制範圍的因素的。

Yes. So the -- first of all, underlying just means transactions. There wasn't anything there. So thanks for asking for the clarity. And basically, what we saw is as we exited the quarter, our transactions turned positive, and then we saw that continue to build in January.

是的。首先，基礎數據指的是交易量。那裡什麼也沒有。謝謝你的澄清。基本上，我們看到的是，在本季結束時，我們的交易量變為正值，然後我們看到這一數字在1月繼續成長。

You're right, there's some Omicron and then there were some good weather. But what we've also seen is our staffing is at the best it's been. Our turnover is at the best it's been in 2 years. And I think the combination of focusing on the basics, meaning no menu deactivations, keeping the lines open, both our frontline and digital make-line from open to close, teams deployed correctly, is also a key driver in why we're seeing the traffic progress in January throughout that whole month.

你說得對，確實有一些Omicron的銷售，天氣也不錯。但我們也看到，我們的人員配置達到了最佳水準。我們的營業額也達到了兩年來的最高水準。我認為，專注於基本運營，這意味著菜單不會停用，保持生產線暢通，包括從開門到關門的一線和數位生產線，以及團隊的正確部署，這些因素也是我們一月份客流量持續增長的關鍵因素。

So we're feeling good about where we are operationally. We believe we can still get even better as we get closer and closer to our infamous burrito season. But it's a great position of strength that we're walking forward from. And we like how we exited December and we like how January shaped up.

所以，我們對目前的營運狀況感到滿意。我們相信，隨著我們備受矚目的墨西哥捲餅季越來越近，我們還能做得更好。但我們現在正處於一個非常有利的位置，並將繼續前進。我們對12月的收尾感到滿意，也對1月的進展感到滿意。

Great. And if I could just ask one follow-up on the operations. I'm wondering if you could maybe elaborate on what metrics other than transactions that you're focused on and how those are progressing and what you think maybe the ultimate target for those should be as you progress through the year or maybe work towards your goals there.

太好了。請問一個關於營運的後續問題。除了交易之外，您還關注哪些指標？這些指標的進展如何？您認為這些指標的最終目標應該是什麼？或者說，您打算如何努力實現這些目標？

Yes. Sure. So I'd like to put a little color on this, menu deactivations in our digital business. Obviously, during the course of the last couple of years, we've had a lot of supply chain challenges, and one of the workarounds we created was allowing teams to deactivate certain items, right, so whether it's Guac or Chips or anything on those lines. And we've kind of just reestablished with both our suppliers, our distribution partners and our teams that that's not a fallback position anymore.

是的，當然。我想稍微解釋一下我們數位業務中選單停用的問題。顯然，在過去幾年裡，我們遇到了許多供應鏈挑戰，我們想出的一個解決方案就是允許團隊停用某些商品，例如酪梨醬、薯片等等。我們已經與供應商、分銷合作夥伴和我們的團隊重新建立了聯繫，確保這不再是退而求其次的選擇。

The expectation is -- I don't know. Can you hear me, David?

預期是——我不知道。你聽得到我說話嗎，大衛？

I can.

我可以。

Okay. The expectation is you should be in stock, and then you should be prepared from open to close with those items. So there were points and times during that quarter where we had hundreds of menu deactivations, and now we're back into the single digits on how that's going. So that's a key metric.

好的。我們的預期是庫存充足，並且從開門到關門，這些商品都能隨時準備好。所以在那個季度，我們曾經有過數百個菜單被停用的情況，現在情況又回到了個位數。所以這是一個關鍵指標。

Another key metric would be our digital on-time percentage. That's improved by nearly 10 points. And so I think that's a function again of being deployed correctly, staffed correctly and then obviously, having the ingredients you need in order to build the order correctly. And then we've seen some progress on throughput as well on the frontline. And I anticipate really where we'll see big movement on throughput is more towards the second quarter, when we get into kind of more of our peak performance, and that's why you saw us focus on hiring so many additional people.

另一個關鍵指標是我們的數位化準時率。這項指標提高了近10個百分點。所以我認為這又取決於正確的部署、正確的人員配備，以及顯然擁有正確完成訂單所需的所有要素。此外，我們也看到了一線人員的吞吐量有所提升。我預計吞吐量的大幅提升將在第二季度，屆時我們將達到更好的業績峰值，這也是您看到我們專注於招募大量新員工的原因。

So there's a lot of good indicators beyond just the traffic trends that we've seen. I always like to start with, hey, if you got more stability, your teams are deployed correctly, they're trained correctly, and then we keep it very focused on the basics of running the restaurant, we know we get good outcomes.

所以，除了我們看到的客流量趨勢之外，還有很多好的指標。我總是喜歡這樣說：嘿，如果你的餐廳更加穩定，你的團隊部署得當，他們接受了正確的培訓，並且我們專注於餐廳運營的基本原則，那麼我們就知道我們能取得好的結果。

And the next question is from Sara Senatore from Bank of America.

下一個問題來自美國銀行的 Sara Senatore。

I have a follow-up on labor and staffing and then a quick one on the new units. So just on the labor piece, I guess, could you help me reconcile, I think you've been saying mid-single-digit wage inflation, and I think you had something like 15% price on the menu. So were those hours coming from what you were talking about like the sort of shoulder-to-shoulder job training? Or is that 90% staff -- 90% fully staffed, is that a lot higher than it was? I just trying to think about as we look forward to the year if the late there should be more labor hour investments.

我接下來想問一下勞動力和人員配備的問題，然後快速問一下新部門的狀況。所以，就勞動力方面而言，您能否幫我解釋一下？我記得您一直在說中等個位數的薪資通膨，而您當時的預算中似乎有15%左右的價格上漲。那麼，這些工時是來自於您所說的那種齊頭並進的職業訓練嗎？還是說90%的員工──90%的滿員率──這比之前高了許多？我只是在思考，展望未來，我們是否應該在年底投入更多工時。

Yes. Well, I think what we've been referring to more often than not is just the absolute wage that we're paying and then what that inflation subsequent with that has been. The stores, fortunately, are -- we keep track of an at-model metric. And that's what we're referring to where we're closing on 90% of our restaurants being at-model.

是的。嗯，我想我們經常提到的只是我們支付的絕對工資，以及隨之而來的通貨膨脹率。幸運的是，我們追蹤的是門市的「依模型」指標。這就是我們所說的，我們90%的餐廳都按模型運作。

In regard to the shoulder-to-shoulder training, that's just part of our process. And I think there was an element at some point where we're maybe getting too reliant on virtual training versus the shoulder-to-shoulder training, meaning our field leaders, our team directors also need to be in the restaurants doing shoulder-to-shoulder training with our general managers and our new crew. So that should not result in any additional labor cost with having more shoulder-to-shoulder training.

關於並肩培訓，這只是我們流程的一部分。我認為，在某種程度上，我們可能過度依賴虛擬培訓，而忽略了並肩培訓。這意味著我們的現場領導、團隊主管也需要到餐廳與我們的總經理和新員工並肩培訓。因此，增加並肩培訓不應該導致任何額外的勞動成本。

But Jack, I don't know if there's anything you want to add to that.

但是傑克，我不知道你是否還有什麼要補充的。

No. No, I think that's right, Sara. And we don't think we need to have incremental investment in labor for the training because the best training is you put your teams in position. You have somebody that's chosen what to do and you have somebody that's watching them to kind of self-correct along the way. So it shouldn't be extra labor per se.

不，不，薩拉，我想你說得對。我們認為培訓不需要額外投入人力，因為最好的培訓就是讓你的團隊各就各位。有人負責選擇做什麼，也有人在監督他們，讓他們在過程中自我修正。所以這本身不應該是額外的勞動。

Now when we hire 15,000 people, there's going to be some additional training. But I don't think it's going to be anything that you'll see will blow up the labor line or the P&L going forward at all.

現在，當我們僱用15,000名員工時，會有一些額外的培訓。但我認為這不會對勞動成本或未來的損益造成任何影響。

Okay. So just as we're thinking about kind of the labor, there's still room, I think, what you're saying for improvement on just the restaurant-level margin line of the new comp.

好的。所以，正如我們考慮勞動力問題一樣，我認為，您所說的新公司的餐廳層面利潤率仍有改進的空間。

Yes. Definitely.

是的，確實如此。

Okay. And then just quickly on the new store productivity. Could you clarify that sort of there, it's 1,000 basis points better? Is that because the Chipotlanes open at higher volumes than non-Chipotlanes, and so it's just sort of comparing the different models? Or is there something else going on where across the board, new store productivity is better?

好的。然後快速談談新店生產力。您能否解釋一下，為什麼新店生產力提高了1000個基點？是因為Chipotlanes的開業客流量比非Chipotlanes高，所以這只是在比較不同的模式嗎？還是說還有其他原因導致新店生產力整體更高？

Yes. Sara, I'll take this. I think it's really more based on the Chipotlanes. Because if you look over the last 4 years or so, you got to look over a longer period of time to look at all the openings, we've moved up our productivity. So for example, today, our restaurants open up on average around 85% of what our existing comp stores are doing. If you look back 3 or 4 years ago, we were in kind of the high 70% range or so. So there's been a step change.

是的。薩拉，我接受。我認為這更多是基於Chipotlanes的表現。因為如果你回顧過去四年左右，從更長的時間跨度來觀察所有新開門店，你會發現我們的生產力有所提升。例如，今天，我們餐廳的平均開店量約為現有同類門市的85%。如果你回顧三、四年前，我們的開店量大概在70%左右。所以這是一個巨大的進步。

And the biggest thing that's happened from the 3, 3.5 years ago to today is we've moved from having just a handful of Chipotlanes to having the majority of our portfolio is Chipotlane. And we still -- when we look at what our Chipotlanes are doing, the 85% compared to 15% without a Chipotlane, they continue to outperform that non-Chipotlane cohort. So we think the main driver is the Chipotlane and the convenience that our customers find with that digital drive-through.

從三年前到三年半前，最大的變化就是我們從僅有幾家Chipotlane發展到如今Chipotlane佔據了我們大部分的市場份額。而且，當我們回顧Chipotlane的表現時，我們發現85%的Chipotlane門市仍然比沒有Chipotlane的門市表現更好，而只有15%的門市沒有Chipotlane。所以，我們認為Chipotlane的出現以及顧客透過數位化免下車取餐服務獲得的便利性是Chipotlane發展的主要動力。

The next question will be from David Palmer from Evercore ISI.

下一個問題來自 Evercore ISI 的 David Palmer。

I wanted to ask a question about digital orders. I've been somewhat surprised by the level of decline there. I think back in the third quarter, we estimated that digital traffic per store decline in the mid-teens. That's including both delivery and pickup. Maybe you can comment on whether you think that was correct, but also how much you think digital traffic per store declined in the fourth quarter. And just relatedly, what are your thoughts about that channel? I know it's important to you. What's your outlook for it? And are there things you can do to stabilize that line?

我想問一個關於數字訂單的問題。我對數位訂單的下降幅度有些驚訝。我記得在第三季度，我們估計每家門市的數位流量下降了15%左右，這包括送貨和自取。也許您可以評論一下您是否認為這個數字正確，以及您認為第四季度每家門市的數位流量下降了多少。另外，您對這個管道有什麼看法？我知道它對您很重要。您對它的前景如何？有什麼措施可以穩定這條線？

Yes. Go ahead, Jack.

是的。說吧，傑克。

Yes. I'll get started, David. Listen, there's a couple of things that are driving it. One is we're having a surge in return to in-restaurant. And so that part of our business is growing very, very healthily throughout the last 1.5 years or 2 years since we've been moving away from the pandemic.

是的。我先說，大衛。聽著，有幾個因素在推動這一成長。首先，我們餐廳的回頭客數量激增。所以，自從疫情過去一兩年多以來，這部分業務一直非常健康地成長。

But secondly, delivery has been declining as well. Delivery transactions in the fourth quarter declined 15%, and that's I think just again a normal kind of move away from people getting out and about. And I think there's probably some people who are deciding that while that channel adds a lot of convenience, there is a higher price that comes with that.

其次，外送業務也在下滑。第四季外送交易量下降了15%，我認為這只是人們減少外出購物的正常現象。我認為有些人可能會認為，雖然外送管道帶來了很多便利，但隨之而來的是更高的價格。

So those are the 2 main drivers, and we figured that digital would kind of settle in this high 30% range. And so we're at 37% range now. So it's within the range that we thought we would be in. And early on in the pandemic, we saw our 2 markets that were the least affected, that'd be the Southeast and the Southwest. When they were starting to normalize, they were normalizing towards that high 30% range. So it feels like about the right range for us.

以上就是兩個主要驅動因素，我們預期數位業務的營收佔比應該會穩定在30%左右。所以現在我們的營收佔比在37%左右。所以，這在我們預期的範圍內。疫情初期，我們發現受影響最小的兩個市場是東南部和西南部。當這兩個市場開始恢復正常時，營收佔比就朝著30%左右的高點方向發展。所以，這對我們來說感覺比較合適。

So is your view that you're going to start to kind of lap the second quarter, things really step down? Or do you think you're going to enjoy that comparisons when it comes to digital orders and start to stabilize on that channel, and then perhaps enjoy some of the benefits you're talking about with throughput on the front make-line? Is that -- is your belief that you're going to get a dual benefit there?

那麼，您是否認為到了第二季度，情況會開始好轉？或者，您是否認為，當數位訂單量開始穩定下來，並可能獲得您所說的前端生產線吞吐量提升帶來的一些好處時，您會享受到這種比較優勢？您是否認為您會從中獲得雙重好處？

Yes. That's right, David. I mean the way we think about it is we feel like we've reset the delivery business to be now where it makes sense economically. And as such, our order-ahead business, I think, has started to show the right trajectory. And then obviously, our in-store business has shown tremendous acceleration. So I think you said it well.

是的，沒錯，大衛。我的意思是，我們的想法是，我們覺得我們已經將配送業務重新調整到了經濟可行的水平。因此，我認為我們的提前訂餐業務已經開始呈現正確的發展軌跡。當然，我們的店內業務也呈現出了顯著的成長。所以我認為你說得很好。

The next question is from Andrew Charles from Cowen.

下一個問題來自 Cowen 的 Andrew Charles。

Jack, I have 2 margin questions for you. There's obviously a lot of noise in 4Q. Labor cost was 1Q guidance for labor. And I'm curious what the impact of higher expected sick claims have in 4Q. And then I missed the term, but there's some external factors that you're betting within the mid-25% labor margins. Can you just help tease us out in terms of what that impact is from that external factor?

傑克，我有兩個關於利潤率的問題想問你。第四季顯然有很多噪音。勞動成本是第一季的人工指導價值。我很好奇預期更高的病假索賠會對第四季度產生什麼影響。然後我漏掉了術語，但你認為有一些外部因素會影響到25%左右的勞動利潤率。你能不能解釋一下這些外在因素的影響是什麼？

And then my real question is that if we zoom out and fast forward to when you get the $3 million sales volumes, what's your level of confidence in achieving 27% restaurant-level margins relative to what you might have said a quarter ago if the sales structure has obviously been up and to the right and you're rapidly getting towards that target?

然後我真正的問題是，如果我們縮小並快進到您獲得 300 萬美元銷售額的時候，如果銷售結構明顯向上並且向右並且您正在快速實現該目標，那麼您對於實現 27% 餐廳級利潤率的信心程度如何？相對於您一個季度前所說的水平？

Yes. So let me start with the fourth quarter. Our expectations were that our margin would be more in the 25% range rather than the 24% range. And when you look at the pieces of how we got down to 24% part of it was the loyalty breakage. Frankly, there was an 80 basis point change year-over-year in the comp related to just that journal entry that we had to book for the breakage. If you look at just the -- there was 30 basis points of additional or reduced breakage that we had to reflect this year. That cost us 20 basis points on the margin. It was 60 basis points on -- we saw higher-than-expected medical claims and sick pay during the quarter as well. We typically do see those things pick up a little bit in the fourth quarter and especially in December. But it -- the surge was more than we expected. That's not something that we would expect to recur.

是的。那麼，讓我先從第四季開始。我們預期利潤率會在25%左右，而不是24%。而我們之所以把利潤率降到24%，部分原因在於忠誠度損失。坦白說，僅與我們必須計入的忠誠度損失相關的日記帳分錄，我們的利潤就比去年同期下降了80個基點。如果只看這些，今年我們必須反映的忠誠度損失增加了或減少了30個基點。這導致我們的利潤率損失了20個基點。此外，第四季的醫療索賠和病假工資也高於預期，損失了60個基點。我們通常會看到這些情況在第四季度，尤其是在12月有所改善。但這次的激增超出了我們的預期。我們預計這種情況不會再發生。

And then sales softened during December as well. I think that went hand-in-hand with softer retail sales. We know there was some weather and a seasonal shift in the holidays and things like that. And that was 20, 30 basis points or so.

12月份銷售也出現疲軟。我認為這與零售額疲軟密切相關。我們知道，這其中有一些天氣因素，以及假日等季節性因素的影響。當時的銷售額下降了大約20到30個基點。

So we look at that margin in the fourth quarter. And we think if those things normalize, there is as much as 100 basis points or so that we can get back. We don't get it back all at one time, but we definitely think we have the potential to do that.

因此，我們會關注第四季的利潤率。我們認為，如果這些因素恢復正常，我們最多可以恢復100個基點左右的利潤率。雖然我們無法一次性完全恢復，但我們絕對有潛力做到這一點。

So with that in mind, if you're looking at more of that high 24% and that 25% range on a normalized basis, then we are confident that as we move from the current volumes on a menu price-adjusted basis just over 20 -- $2.7 million up towards that $3 million, the flow-through that we know our model provides will still get us to that 27%.

因此，考慮到這一點，如果您在正常基礎上關注更高的 24% 和 25% 範圍，那麼我們有信心，隨著我們從菜單價格調整後的當前數量（略高於 20——270 萬美元）上升到 300 萬美元，我們知道我們的模型提供的流通量仍將使我們達到 27%。

And can you just clarify -- I'm sorry, you said sales were a bit softer than you guys expected in December. But I think earlier in the script, you guys talked about how there was improvement through the quarter. So was that just a reflection that December didn't perform to the level that you guys were really expecting?

您能否澄清一下？抱歉，您之前說過12月份的銷售額比預期略低。但我記得在之前的報導中，你們提到了整個季度的業績有所改善。那麼，這是否僅僅反映出12月的業績沒有達到你們真正的期待？

Yes. I mean, listen, the way I would describe the quarter, we started out soft and we talked about that in October that we were doing a mid-single-digit comp, that GGS, while there was an attachment rate that was as expected, it wasn't driving transactions. So we started out soft in the quarter. We picked up as we stopped comparing against brisket. That was in the middle of November. So we had, call it, high single-digit comps for a while.

是的。我的意思是，聽著，我是這樣描述這個季度的：我們一開始表現疲軟，我們在10月份就討論過，當時我們的可比銷售額在個位數左右。 GGS雖然附加率符合預期，但並沒有推動交易。所以，我們這個季度一開始表現疲軟。直到我們停止與牛胸肉進行比較後，銷售額才有所回升。那是在11月中旬。所以，我們當時有一段時間的可比較銷售額處於個位數左右的高點。

And then we lapped the menu pricing increase from December of 2021. And then just as we got around the holiday, we just didn't see that pop, that momentum that we normally see in -- so December. So the way I would describe it is, frankly, we started the quarter soft and we ended the quarter soft.

然後，我們從2021年12月開始就實現了菜單價格上漲。然後，就在假期臨近之際，我們並沒有看到12月那種通常會出現的上漲勢頭。所以，坦白說，我是這樣描述的：本季初我們業績疲軟，本季末也同樣疲軟。

Now what we're happy about is, as the holidays -- we got through the holidays and we got into January, that's where our transaction, not just from a comparison standpoint but just on a trend month-over-month, really did improve. And so we feel good about where we go from here. But yes, listen, the fourth quarter was a tough quarter for us.

現在，我們感到高興的是，隨著假期的結束——我們度過了假期，進入了一月，我們的交易量，不僅從環比來看，而且從環比趨勢來看，都確實有所改善。因此，我們對未來的發展充滿信心。但是，沒錯，第四季對我們來說是一個艱難的季度。

Next question will be from Brian Bittner from Oppenheimer & Co.

下一個問題來自 Oppenheimer & Co. 的 Brian Bittner。

As you move throughout 2023 and you lap some of these large menu price increases as the year progresses, would you think about replacing them with some type of increases, albeit probably a lot more normalized, more lower price increases? Or do you plan to let these fully roll off? And Jack, as you sit here today, what do you anticipate the total pricing factor to be for the full year '23 for the same-store sales model?

進入2023年，隨著時間推移，一些菜單價格大幅上漲，您是否會考慮用某種形式的漲價來替代它們，儘管這種漲價可能更加正常化，價格上漲幅度更小？還是您打算讓這些漲價完全停止？傑克，您今天坐在這裡，您預計2023年全年同店銷售模式的整體定價因素是多少？

Yes. So I mean I'll start with that and then we can talk about expectations. We're running right now in that kind of 9% to 10% range. And as I mentioned, it rolls off early in Q3. And then in -- I'm sorry, early in Q2 and mid-Q3. And then there were a couple of delivery adjustments, target adjustments in there as well. We'll end up being somewhere in that kind of mid-single digit because by the time you get to the end of the year, we're running basically 0 pricing. So overall for the year, it will be somewhere in that kind of mid-single digit.

是的。我先從這個開始，然後再談預期。我們目前的成長率在9%到10%之間。正如我所提到的，它將在第三季初開始下降。然後……抱歉，應該是在第二季初和第三季中期。之後還有一些交付量調整和目標調整。最終成長率會達到中等個位數左右，因為到年底，我們的定價基本上為0。所以全年整體成長率會維持在中等個位數左右。

In terms of pricing action, we're not going to take a price increase just to cover a lap over last year. The main thing we're going to do is we're going to watch inflation, and we're going to hope that inflation is tame.

在價格行動方面，我們不會為了彌補去年的不足而提高價格。我們主要關注通膨，並希望通膨保持溫和。

Right now, we know that there is some pressure on a few of our ingredients. Beef is the one that we keep hearing about. We haven't seen it yet, but everyone is predicting that there's going to be greater supply versus demand. But we'll watch that carefully and see what inflation does. But it's going to be more about inflation in wages, inflation in ingredients and do we need to take pricing action to cover some of that. But I -- we wouldn't take a price increase just to cover a comp lap.

目前，我們知道部分原料面臨一些壓力。牛肉是我們一直聽到的。我們還沒看到這種情況，但大家都預測供大於求。我們會密切關注，看看通貨膨脹會造成什麼影響。但這主要取決於工資上漲和原料價格上漲，我們是否需要採取價格措施來彌補其中的部分損失？但我——我們不會只為了彌補損失而漲價。

That makes sense. And just a clarification on the same-store sales guidance for the first quarter. I know you've talked a lot about traffic flipping positive here in January. But if we just hypothetically land in that high single-digit range for the first quarter, what do you think mix and traffic would separately be in that build if it kind of played out how you thought?

這很有道理。我只是想澄清一下第一季的同店銷售額預期。我知道您已經多次談到一月份客流量的正成長。但如果我們假設第一季的客流量達到較高的個位數，您認為如果情況按照您的想法發展，那麼產品組合和客流量分別會是多少呢？

Yes. I mean, right now, we're running, call it, mid-single-digit positive traffic. We expect for the quarter -- that guidance range assumes that we're also going to be positive transactions more in the low single digit as we move away from Omicron. Pricing will be that 9% to 10% range that I mentioned. And then there's going to be a mix component. We think it's kind of probably be in that low maybe 2-ish, 3-ish percent, something like that. Mix is a little harder to predict, but those are the main components.

是的。我的意思是，目前我們的流量處於中等個位數的正成長水準。我們預計本季——這個指導範圍假設隨著我們逐漸擺脫Omicron的影響，我們的交易量也將保持在低個位數。定價將是我之前提到的9%到10%的區間。此外，還會有混合因素。我們認為可能會在2%左右、3%左右。混合因素有點難以預測，但這些是主要因素。

And the next question will be from Jon Tower from Citigroup.

下一個問題來自花旗集團的喬恩‧陶爾 (Jon Tower)。

Quick clarification on the question. On the new store productivity, I know we talked on this a little bit earlier. During the quarter, was there anything about timing where -- based on the way that we can calculate, it looks like the productivity of the stores might have been a little bit lower than the normal. And I don't know if that's related to timing or something else. That's kind of the clarification.

簡單澄清一下這個問題。關於新店的生產效率，我知道我們之前討論過這個問題。在本季度，根據我們計算的方式，是否存在與時間安排有關的情況，門市的生產效率似乎略低於正常水平。我不知道這是否與時間安排或其他因素有關。以上就是我的澄清。

The question is then on thinking about the Garlic Guajillo Steak, it didn't live up to your expectations. Curious if you could dissect that and give us a reason as to what you might have missed. I know it hasn't been that long, but curious to know how it didn't perform versus your expectations and why you think that happened.

那麼問題來了，關於蒜香瓜希略牛排，它沒有達到你的期望。我很好奇你能不能詳細分析一下，並告訴我們你可能忽略了哪些方面。我知道時間還不長，但我還是很想知道它的表現為什麼沒有達到你的預期，以及你認為為什麼會這樣。

I'll let Jack answer the first one on the store productivity, and then I can chime in on the...

我會讓傑克回答有關商店生產力的第一個問題，然後我可以加入討論...

Yes. You hit the nail on the head. We opened a record 100 restaurants during the quarter, but it was very, very back-loaded. Our teams did a great job of just scratching, clawing and doing everything that they could to get the restaurants open. And I think we probably had a record opening in the month of December as well. We had more than half of the openings or in the last month of the year. So yes, you're not -- you didn't see a typical sales flow-through, considering we opened 100 restaurants.

是的，你說得一針見血。我們在本季開設了創紀錄的100家餐廳，但這些餐廳的開幕時間非常非常晚。我們的團隊做得非常出色，他們竭盡全力，拼盡全力，才讓這些餐廳開幕。而且我認為我們12月份的開幕數量可能也創下了紀錄。超過一半的開業餐廳是在去年最後一個月開業的。所以，考慮到我們開了100家餐廳，你並沒有看到典型的銷售流水。

And then on your question about Garlic Guajillo Steak. Look, I think it's one of those things where we tested it in a very different environment than when we rolled it out. And as a result, we got the check benefit, but we didn't get the transactions. And it also had the challenge of rolling over brisket, which was arguably one of our best-performing menu items that we've done to date. But we'll continue to analyze that we make sure we learn from it going forward. And that's why we use the stage-gate process so that we are always learning.

然後關於你關於蒜瓜希略牛排的問題。你看，我認為這是我們在與正式推出時截然不同的環境中測試的。結果，我們獲得了帳單優惠，但沒有獲得交易。此外，它還面臨著牛胸肉的挑戰，可以說是我們迄今為止表現最好的菜單項目之一。但我們會繼續分析，確保未來吸取教訓。這就是為什麼我們使用階段門流程，以便我們始終保持學習。

And our next question will be from Sharon Zackfia from William Blair.

下一個問題來自 William Blair 的 Sharon Zackfia。

I wanted to ask a question about staffing and the lower turnover that you're seeing. Is there a way to kind of compare and contrast tenure on the frontline now versus 2019? And if we think about throughput opportunity as we enter high season, I mean, how much is the frontline because it is less experienced kind of lagging where you were in 2019 or dimensionalize kind of how much throughput opportunity is really on the table here as you have more productive frontline staff?

我想問一個關於人員配置和您所看到的較低人員流動率的問題。有沒有辦法比較一下現在和2019年第一線員工的任職年資？如果我們考慮一下進入旺季後的產能提升機會，我的意思是，由於經驗不足，第一線員工的生產力與2019年相比有多少差距？或者，隨著第一線員工效率的提高，現在究竟有多少產能提升機會？

Yes. Look, thanks for the question on this because I think this is an important one, which is what we know is when we have our teams at model and deployed correctly with leadership present for shoulder-to-shoulder training, our restaurants perform. And that's what we saw in 2019, and that's what we anticipate occurring going forward.

是的。謝謝你的提問，因為我認為這個問題很重要。我們知道，當我們的團隊以身作則、部署正確，領導層也進行並肩培訓時，我們的餐廳就能表現良好。這就是我們在2019年看到的情況，也是我們預期未來會發生的情況。

So we know there's upside in how much throughput is -- our teams are capable of doing. And obviously, we're targeting to get those throughput numbers back to where they were in, call it, the 2019 time period. The one thing that's nice is our turnover levels have dropped. So we're getting more stability in the teams, which means they're getting more reps. So that as we walk into these higher-level or higher-volume months, they've got more reps and being deployed correctly, working together correctly to ensure that we get more throughput. And that's what we're focused on is the people that we have today, how do we get them trained, how do we get them deployed and then how do we make sure those teams stay together.

所以我們知道，我們的團隊有能力提高吞吐量，這其中存在著上升空間。顯然，我們的目標是將這些吞吐量數字恢復到2019年的水平。值得慶幸的是，我們的人員流動率下降了。因此，我們的團隊更加穩定，這意味著他們擁有了更多的銷售代表。這樣，當我們進入更高級別或更高業務量的月份時，他們擁有更多的銷售代表，並且能夠得到正確的部署和良好的協作，從而確保我們獲得更高的吞吐量。我們關注的重點是我們現有的員工，如何培訓他們，如何部署他們，以及如何確保這些團隊保持團結。

Yes. And Sharon, just to add, when we look at the timing position back to '19, and there's 2 factors here. One is turnover. The other one is promotion rates as well. But when your turnover slows down, people are going to be in their position longer.

是的。莎倫，補充一下，回顧19年的職位變動，有兩個因素。一個是人員流動率。另一個是晉升率。但是，當人員流動率下降時，員工在原職位上待的時間就會更長。

In -- for example, on the kitchen manager, we're very close to where we were in 2019. So the average tenure in the kitchen manager role was like 0.69, meaning it was about 8 months or so. Today, it's like 0.64. So it's like maybe 7, 7.5 months, something like that. In apprentice, we're not quite back to '19, but we're ahead of where we were a year ago, and we're in striking distance again.

例如，就廚房經理而言，我們現在的水準非常接近2019年的水準。當時廚房經理的平均任期大約是0.69個月，也就是說大約8個月。而現在，這個數字是0.64個月，也就是大概7個月到7.5個月左右。在學徒方面，我們還沒有完全回到2019年的水平，但比一年前有所進步，而且我們又回到了可以攻擊的距離。

So those are areas that we were seeing that our average tenure was going down during the high-turnover period of the last 1.5 years or so. But those numbers appear to just like with the turnover be stabilizing and moving back up.

所以，在過去一年半左右的高員工流動率時期，我們發現這些領域的平均任期有所下降。但隨著員工流動率的上升，這些數字似乎趨於穩定並回升。

And the next question will be from John Ivankoe with JPMorgan.

下一個問題來自摩根大通的 John Ivankoe。

I know you've been working on a number of different automation or technology practices in the store that could potentially reduce the demand for labor and also make you efficient and perhaps more consistent in some ways. So I was just hoping you could take a few minutes or a few seconds and just kind of talk about some of the different packages that you have, how far along they are and when you -- we actually might be able to start to see some benefit, even if it's on a limited basis at a market level.

我知道您一直在門市內研究各種自動化或技術實踐，這些實踐可能會減少對勞動力的需求，並提高效率，甚至在某些方面更加一致。所以，我希望您能抽出幾分鐘或幾秒鐘，簡單介紹一下您目前使用的一些不同的方案，以及它們目前進展如何，以及何時——我們實際上可能能夠開始看到一些效益，即使這種效益在市場層面上還很有限。

Yes. Sure. So probably the one that's closest in is the new grill work that we've got going on, which I mentioned in my earlier remarks. It just gives our teams a tool that allows them to cook the chicken, frankly, just perfect every time and a lot faster, significantly faster. And the same thing goes for steak. And we're actually moving that from a 1-store test now to a multi-store test as we speak. So we're excited about that one.

是的，當然。所以最接近的可能是我們正在進行的新的燒烤工作，我在之前的演講中提到過。它為我們的團隊提供了一種工具，讓他們每次都能烤出完美的雞肉，而且速度更快，非常快。牛排也是如此。實際上，我們正在將這項測試從現在的單店測試轉移到多店測試。所以我們對此感到非常興奮。

Obviously, we're working on an automated digital make-line, which is in partnership with Hyphen. And we'll get the first one of those into a real live prototype in our Cultivate center probably end of this quarter, early in the next quarter. So that one's a little bit further out.

顯然，我們正在與Hyphen合作研發一條自動化數位生產線。我們計劃在本季末或下個季度初，在我們的Cultivate中心推出第一條生產線的原型。所以，這個計劃還有點遠。

And then we just got rolling with a live pilot on the, what we call Chippy, which is our automated arm or robotic arm to fry chips. And -- so I have much more information on that as that goes live in the one restaurant. So I'd say the one that's probably closest in is the grill, and the ones probably furthest out probably is our digital make-line -- automated digital make-line.

然後，我們剛開始進行現場試運行，我們稱之為Chippy，這是我們用來炸薯條的自動機械手臂。隨著它在一家餐廳上線，我掌握了更多資訊。所以，我想說，最靠近的可能是烤架，而最遠的可能是我們的數位生產線——自動化數位生產線。

But all these are really promising because when you can significantly reduce cook times and then make the practice of grilling chicken and steak easier, good things happen with our culinary. And that's what we've seen in the one restaurant. People are giving us feedback that the steak and chicken taste great. Our team members are giving us feedback that they love using the new grills. And so we're more consistent with great culinary, everybody wins.

但所有這些都非常有前景，因為當你能顯著縮短烹飪時間，讓燒烤雞肉和牛排變得更容易時，我們的烹飪水平就會提高。這正是我們在一家餐廳看到的。顧客回饋說牛排和雞肉味道很棒。我們的團隊成員也回饋說他們喜歡使用新的烤架。因此，我們能夠更持續地提供出色的烹飪體驗，實現共贏。

The next question will be from Dennis Geiger from UBS.

下一個問題來自瑞銀的丹尼斯蓋格 (Dennis Geiger)。

Just first wondering if it would be possible to give the traffic mix price for the 4Q. And then the question is really about pricing -- another one on pricing. Just curious if you believe you've seen any customer resistance to pricing levels, how that's kind of shaped how you thought about the pricing that you talked about for the year. And related to that, any kind of update on value scores, the low-income customer that you spoke to last quarter, anything as it relates to shaping your view on how the business performs into a potentially tougher macro?

首先，我想問一下，能否提供一下第四季的流量組合價格。然後，真正的問題其實是關於定價──又是一個定價問題。我很好奇，您是否認為您看到過客戶對定價水平的抵觸情緒，這對您對今年定價的看法有何影響？與此相關的是，關於價值評分、您上季度採訪過的低收入客戶，以及任何與您對公司在可能更加嚴峻的宏觀經濟形勢下如何表現的看法相關的資訊？

Yes. Sure. So look, we really have not seen any meaningful resistance to our pricing, especially as it relates to our in-store experience. Obviously, the delivery channel was down, but I think that's a function of a couple of things. One, you do have to pay a premium for that occasion, combined with that the in-store experience is back and people are back out and about. So potentially, they see the convenience, the customization of coming in the restaurant and getting it on kind of their control terms.

是的，確實如此。所以，你看，我們確實沒有看到任何針對我們定價的實質阻力，尤其是在與店內體驗相關的方面。顯然，配送通路有所下滑，但我認為這是由幾個因素造成的。首先，你確實需要為這種場合支付額外費用，其次，店內體驗已經恢復，人們也開始外出用餐。所以，他們可能看到了便利性，以及到店用餐的客製化，並根據自己的控制條件進行選擇。

We continue to see the higher-income consumer, the individual that earns over $100,000, coming more often. And frankly, I think the same thing would have happened with the low-income consumer regardless of what the pricing was that we acted on. And we made the decision not to go chasing people with discounts. That's not what our brand is, and that's not what we're going to do. We're better off winning the value gain through great culinary, great speed/convenience, terrific customization, and we know that continues to resonate. Our value scores continue to be really strong. If you look at people that I would say are comparable that are in the fast-casual category, we're still at 10% to 30% discount.

我們持續看到高收入消費者，也就是年收入超過10萬美元的消費者，來我們店的頻率越來越高。坦白說，我認為無論我們採取什麼樣的定價策略，低收入消費者也會遇到同樣的情況。我們決定不靠折扣來吸引顧客。這不符合我們的品牌定位，我們也不會這麼做。我們更應該透過精湛的烹飪、快速/便利的服務以及卓越的客製化服務來贏得價值提升，我們知道這些優勢將持續獲得共鳴。我們的性價比依然非常高。如果你看看那些我認為可以與我們相媲美的快餐休閒類餐廳，你會發現我們仍然提供10%到30%的折扣。

So look, I think we've made a lot of really good moves to kind of move with the challenges that we've had to deal with. And as a result, I think we're seeing stronger operations, stronger teams. And we're seeing, I think, that work come out to bear in January and where we are here in February.

所以，我認為我們已經採取了很多非常好的措施來應對我們面臨的挑戰。因此，我認為我們的營運和團隊正在變得更加強大。而且我認為，這些努力在一月和二月都取得了成效。

So Jack, I don't know if there's anything to add to that.

傑克，我不知道是否還有什麼要補充的。

No. I think you said that perfectly, Brian. And just -- I think you were looking for the components in the quarter. The components of our pricing was about 13.5%. Transactions were down about 4%, mix was down about 3%. So that gets you to an underlying comp about 6.5%. And then we had the journal entry that deals with breakage, and that was 80 basis points. So that gets you to the 5.6% comp.

不，布萊恩，我覺得你說得太好了。而且——我想你指的是本季的組成部分。我們定價的組成部分大約是13.5%。交易量下降了約4%，產品組合下降了約3%。所以，基本可比成本約為6.5%。然後，我們還有處理破損損失的分錄，這是80個基點。所以，可比成本約為5.6%。

And our next question is from Jeffrey Bernstein with Barclays.

下一個問題來自巴克萊銀行的傑弗裡·伯恩斯坦。

First question is just on the restaurant margin. For full year '22, you ended in that 24% range. So you talked about maybe some headwinds in the fourth quarter that brought that in below expectation. Just wondering if you can give any specific thoughts as you look to full year '23. I know you gave some color specific to the first quarter. But as you think about the environment going forward, your pricing perhaps rolling off by the end of the year and what you know today based on kind of the key cost pressures, I'm just wondering your thoughts on the full year '23, whether it's reasonable to assume a return to 25%-plus in '23 or beyond? I know you mentioned getting to more like 27% when you hit the $3 million, but just wondering kind of on the interim, what you're thinking specifically to '23?

第一個問題是關於餐廳利潤率的。 2022年全年，你們的利潤率最終在24%左右。所以你提到第四季可能遇到了一些不利因素，導致利潤率低於預期。我想知道，您對2023年全年有什麼具體的看法。我知道您之前對第一季的情況做了一些描述。但考慮到未來的環境，您的定價可能會在年底前下降，而且根據您目前掌握的關鍵成本壓力，我想知道您對2023年全年的看法，是否可以合理地假設2023年或之後的回報率會達到25%以上？我知道您提到過，當銷售額達到300萬美元時，回報率會達到27%左右，但請問，在此期間，您對2023年的具體預期是什麼？

Yes. I mean it's so hard. And the reason we gave some color on the first quarter but not beyond that is we don't know what's going to happen in the economy. We think inflation will be reasonably tame. Hopefully, that will come true. And we don't -- we haven't made any decisions on pricing action right now.

是的。我的意思是，這真的很難。我們之所以只給了第一季的數據，但沒有透露之後的數據，是因為我們不知道經濟狀況會如何發展。我們認為通膨會比較溫和。希望這能成真。目前我們還沒有就價格行動做出任何決定。

So Jeff, the way I would think about it is we're going to kind of let the year play out. We're going to do everything we can in terms of managing the supply chain, managing as we recruit people. We've got to pave the way just to make sure that we gear up for burrito season. We'll watch how the inflation element plays out. And we don't have any plans right now to take pricing action. So we might be more patient this year than we were last year. Last year, the inflation kept coming at us, and now we can see more ahead. And we take pricing action, we see even more ahead. It doesn't feel like it's at that fever pitch. So I think you could see us be more patient this year.

傑夫，我的想法是，我們會順勢而為，讓這一年慢慢來。我們會盡一切努力管理供應鏈，招募人才。我們必須做好準備，確保為墨西哥捲餅季節做好準備。我們會關注通膨因素的影響。目前我們還沒有製定任何定價計劃。所以，今年我們可能會比去年更有耐心。去年，通膨一直在困擾我們，而現在我們可以預見未來。我們採取定價措施，可以預見未來。感覺通膨還沒有達到那種白熱化的程度。所以我認為，今年我們會更有耐心。

What I can tell you is when things do normalize, whether that's later this year or end of 2024, we absolutely have at these kind of volumes the ability to get a margin up into that 25% range on a sustainable basis, and then it will grow from there. I just don't want to make any promises on a quarter-by-quarter basis. Just because so many things have happened in the last several quarters, it's hard to predict what's going to happen. But I do know that our model is intact.

我可以告訴你的是，當情況恢復正常時，無論是今年晚些時候還是2024年底，在這樣的規模下，我們絕對有能力將利潤率持續提升到25%左右，然後還會繼續增長。我只是不想逐季度做出任何承諾。由於過去幾個季度發生了太多事情，很難預測未來會發生什麼。但我知道我們的模式是完好的。

Understood. And then just following up on a couple of bigger-picture topics. I think, Brian, you mentioned that international growth is going to be at, I think you said a measured pace. I'm wondering if the headwinds, to your point about the economy in Western Europe perhaps, is the primary reason why it's measured or maybe there are other causes for concern. Anything around that international acceleration and when the timing of that might be would be great.

明白了。然後我想跟進幾個更宏觀的話題。布萊恩，你提到國際經濟成長將會保持一個…我認為你說的是適度成長。我想知道，逆風——或許正如你所提到的西歐經濟——是否是導致國際經濟成長緩慢的主要原因，或者還有其他令人擔憂的原因。任何關於國際經濟加速以及何時加速的資訊都值得關注。

Yes. Sure. So obviously, Canada, it's full steam ahead, right? We're opening, I think, the most restaurants we've ever opened from a percentage standpoint and probably absolute standpoint ever in Canada, which is really exciting. And those economics continue to perform really well.

是的，當然。所以，加拿大顯然正在全速前進，對吧？我想，從百分比來看，甚至從絕對數量來看，我們在加拿大開設的餐廳數量都是有史以來最多的，這真的令人興奮。而且這些經濟狀況持續表現良好。

When you look at Europe, look, the top line is really performing. And frankly, we've been much more patient on pricing there because we want to make sure that people have the experiences with Chipotle. So there's a lot of inflation that we're still dealing with in Europe.

看看歐洲，你會發現營收表現確實不錯。坦白說，我們在歐洲的定價策略上更加耐心，因為我們想確保顧客擁有與Chipotle相同的體驗。因此，我們在歐洲仍在應對嚴重的通貨膨脹。

But look, we like what we're seeing. The good news is feedback on the experience is very, very positive. Feedback on the culinary is very positive. And the most recent restaurants that we've opened are performing really well. So we're just taking our time with it because, unfortunately, the last 3 years have not been normal in any way. So we just want to make sure we aren't getting any false positives or false negatives on any part of the business.

不過，你看，我們對目前的情況很滿意。好消息是，顧客對體驗的回饋非常正面。對烹飪的回饋也非常積極。我們最近新開的餐廳表現也非常好。所以我們只是在慢慢推進，因為不幸的是，過去三年的情況並不正常。所以我們只是想確保在業務的任何環節都不會出現任何誤報或漏報。

So the good news is we've got a tremendous growth runway in the United States that we can be very patient with how we approach our international expansion. But the early signs are people like burritos and bowls, and they like our culinary and they like the convenience, and they like the speed. So that's a recipe for a lot of opportunity down the road.

所以好消息是，我們在美國擁有巨大的成長空間，因此我們可以非常耐心地推動國際擴張。但早期跡象表明，人們喜歡墨西哥捲餅和碗，他們喜歡我們的烹飪方式，喜歡它的便利性和速度。所以，這為未來帶來大量機會奠定了基礎。

And the next question is from Danilo Gargiulo with Bernstein.

下一個問題來自伯恩斯坦的 Danilo Gargiulo。

So if I understand correctly, the traffic improvement you're seeing seems to be stemming primarily from productivity and operational improvements also as you're moving along in 2023. But I'm wondering your expectations on the demand side from consumers and in particular whether you're seeing or expecting any trends that could be possibly offsetting the productivity and operational improvements as we are moving along in 2023?

所以，如果我理解正確的話，您所看到的客流量改善似乎主要源於生產力和營運的改善，這也是您在 2023 年不斷發展的原因。但我想知道您對消費者需求的預期，特別是您是否看到或預期到任何可能抵消我們在 2023 年不斷發展的生產力和營運改善的趨勢？

No. Look, the consumer demand, especially if we use kind of our in-store experience right now, looks to be there. Especially as you look at the higher-income consumer, their purchase frequency has actually gone up. So we fundamentally believe the better we operate, the better our performance will be. And that's why we've got -- Scott and the team have a full court press, frankly, on great people, great culinary. If we do those 2 things against our operating standards, we believe we'll continue to make progress on throughput, and we'll continue to see the gains that hopefully we've experienced in the first part of this quarter.

不。你看，消費者的需求，尤其是我們現在利用店內體驗的需求，看起來確實存在。尤其是高收入消費者，他們的購買頻率實際上有所上升。所以我們從根本上相信，我們的營運越好，業績就會越好。坦白說，這就是為什麼我們——史考特和他的團隊對優秀的人才和一流的烹飪技巧全力以赴。如果我們按照營運標準做到這兩點，我們相信我們的吞吐量會繼續提高，我們也將繼續看到我們在本季第一季的進展。

And I think you also mentioned there are some positive signs that are emerging from Project Square One. I was wondering if you can elaborate on that one and maybe like share a couple of metrics where you're particularly proud of.

我記得您也提到過，Square One 計畫正在顯現一些正面的跡象。您能否詳細說明一下，並分享一些您特別引以為傲的指標？

Yes. Look, I mentioned this earlier. Obviously, one of the things that we've seen is a lot less incidents of menu deactivations. So when you go to order online, all of the products are available, chips, guac, chicken, steak. That has dramatically decreased. And we know that's a big deal because when you order online, if you don't have what you want available, your conversion rate goes down.

是的。我之前有提到過。顯然，我們看到的一件事就是菜單停用的情況少了很多。所以當你在線上下單時，所有產品都有貨，薯條、酪梨醬、雞肉、牛排。這種情況已經大幅減少了。我們知道這很重要，因為當你在線上下單時，如果沒有你想要的菜品，你的轉換率就會下降。

And so we've seen when we have the product in stock, our conversion rate gets back to where it should be. We've also seen a huge step up in our on-time -- percentage on time in a meaningful way. And then we've also already seen some progress on throughput, albeit small movement, but I think that has more to do with the time of the year than a testament to the impact of Project Square One.

因此，我們看到，當產品有庫存時，我們的轉換率就恢復到了應有的水準。我們的準時率也顯著提升了。此外，我們的吞吐量也取得了一些進展，儘管變化不大，但我認為這更多是與季節有關，而不是「Square One」計畫的影響。

What I also think is also really great news is we have more stability in our teams than we've had in over 2 years. And we've got more teams at-model with less turnover. And I think Scott's got these teams focused on deploying correctly and getting trained shoulder-to-shoulder so that they're ready to go when the rush shows up.

我還認為，一個非常好的消息是，我們的團隊比過去兩年多更穩定。我們擁有更多符合模式的團隊，人員流動率也更低。我認為斯科特讓這些團隊專注於正確部署，並肩作戰，以便他們在高峰期做好準備。

And our final question today will be from Brian Harbour from Morgan Stanley.

今天的最後一個問題來自摩根士丹利的 Brian Harbour。

Maybe first just a question on delivery. Are you able to see in your data that those customers have shifted to coming into the stores or mobile order-ahead? Or do you think those customers have basically fallen off as you've seen that business decline a little bit?

首先想問一個關於外帶的問題。您能從數據中看出，這些顧客已經轉向到店或提前在手機上點餐嗎？還是說，您認為這些顧客數量已經基本下降，因為業務量有所下滑？

What it looks like to us is we've definitely seen people make a shift in restaurant and then some shift to order-ahead. That's probably been the biggest trend that we've seen. Obviously, the premium, especially when you operate in our white-label execution, is one of those places where you can quickly compare like what's the difference between ordering delivery versus ordering pickup. And that's an obvious one where I think we've seen, as a result, people they toggle between the 2 and then they choose order-ahead.

在我們看來，我們確實看到人們在餐廳用餐時發生了轉變，有些人甚至轉向了提前訂餐。這可能是我們看到的最大趨勢。顯然，高端服務，尤其是在我們採用白標服務的情況下，是那種你可以快速比較外帶和自取之間區別的地方。這是一個顯而易見的例子，我認為我們已經看到人們在外賣和自取之間來回切換，最終選擇提前訂餐。

So yes, we've seen people stay committed to the idea of getting Chipotle. I'm sure there are those customers where if something's free somewhere else for delivery, they might take advantage of a freebie. But look, we're not interested in renting or borrowing customers. We want people to be a part of the Chipotle business because the value proposition is right for them, they buy into the food that we provide, the culinary that we provide at the convenience and speed at which we provide it. So that's been a conscious choice, and I think it's going to serve us well in the long run.

所以，是的，我們看到人們仍然堅持選擇 Chipotle。我相信有些顧客如果在其他地方有免費外賣，他們可能會去買。但是，你看，我們對租用或借用顧客不感興趣。我們希望人們成為 Chipotle 業務的一部分，是因為我們的價值主張適合他們，他們購買我們提供的食物和烹飪方式，並享受我們提供的便利和快速。所以，這是一個明智的選擇，我認為從長遠來看，這將對我們有利。

Okay. And maybe just a related question on kind of some of the new perks that you rolled out, the Freepotle that you launched in January. I mean, is it your view that, that drives kind of a step up in frequency? Or how else do you think it will affect customer behavior? Is there any margin impact of that? And then I guess, also you -- it sounds like you've seen kind of mobile ordering stabilize, but do you want that to grow as you go into the next couple of years? And do you think this can kind of be a catalyst for that?

好的。我想問一個與您推出的一些新福利，例如一月推出的Freepotle相關的問題。您認為這會提高顧客的用餐頻率嗎？或者您認為它會如何影響顧客的行為？這會對利潤率產生什麼影響嗎？另外，我想，您似乎已經看到行動點餐業務趨於穩定，但您希望它在未來幾年繼續成長嗎？您認為這會成為推動這一成長的催化劑嗎？

Yes. Look, it's doing 2 things. One, it's hopefully keeping more people engaged in the loyalty program. We're only, what, one month in on it and then also acquiring more people into the rewards program. And so it looks really promising that it's doing exactly what we want it to do. But again, it's only one month in. And what was your -- second part of your question?

是的。你看，它有兩個作用。首先，它希望能吸引更多人參與忠誠度計畫。我們才剛開始一個月，然後還能吸引更多人加入獎勵計畫。所以它看起來非常有希望，而且它正在實現我們想要的效果。不過話說回來，它才剛開始一個月。你問題的第二部分是什麼？

Just if you think that that's kind of the next catalyst for driving greater, more order penetration.

如果你認為這是推動更大、更多訂單滲透的下一個催化劑。

Yes. Look, what we definitely know is when people are engaged in our Rewards program, we get more purchase frequency out of them. And the most engaged people come through our digital business when it comes to our rewards program. So I do think the combination of high engagement with rewards, specifically around the amount of personalization that we're doing here, will result in more frequency out of customers down the road. And usually, that comes via a digital experience is where you see more of the impact from the Rewards program.

是的。你看，我們確信的是，當人們參與我們的獎勵計劃時，他們的購買頻率會更高。參與度最高的人是透過我們的數位業務來參與獎勵計劃的。所以我認為，高參與度與獎勵相結合，特別是圍繞我們在這裡實施的個人化服務，將在未來提高客戶的購買頻率。通常，透過數位體驗，你才能看到獎勵計劃帶來的最大影響。

Ladies and gentlemen, this concludes our question-and-answer session. I would like to turn the conference back over to Brian Niccol for any closing remarks.

女士們，先生們，我們的問答環節到此結束。我想將會議交還給Brian Niccol，請他作最後發言。

Okay. Thanks. And thanks, everybody, for all the questions and being a part of the call. Obviously, 2022 was another one of these years where a lot of unexpected things occurred. But I do think, once again, we've demonstrated the resiliency of Chipotle and the power of our Food with Integrity purpose combined with the culinary and convenience that we provide.

好的。謝謝。也感謝大家的提問和參與電話會議。顯然，2022年又是一個發生了很多意想不到事情的年份。但我確實認為，我們再次展現了Chipotle的韌性，以及我們「誠信食物」宗旨的力量，以及我們提供的美味佳餚和便利服務。

Again, we were able to expand our AUVs, our margins. We had a record number of store openings in the fourth quarter. And we're optimistic about where the business is today because of the focus on great operational execution, combined with great culinary and great people. And you're going to continue to see us stay focused on executing those basics while we continue to execute against the other strategies to make the brand more visible, loved and hopefully engaged with. So off to a good start in 2023, and we're optimistic about our growth runway going forward.

我們再次成功擴大了平均每家店（AUV）和利潤率。第四季度，我們新開店數量創歷史新高。我們對目前的業務狀況充滿信心，這得益於我們專注於卓越的營運執行，以及一流的烹飪和優秀的員工。您將看到我們繼續專注於執行這些基本原則，同時繼續執行其他策略，以提高品牌的知名度、受歡迎程度，並希望能夠提升品牌的參與度。因此，2023年開局良好，我們對未來的成長前景充滿信心。

So thanks, everybody, for being a part of the call. And we'll talk to you soon, I'm sure. Take care. Bye.

感謝各位參加電話會議。我相信我們很快會再聯絡你們。保重。再見。

The conference has now concluded. Thank you for attending today's presentation. You may now disconnect.

會議現已結束。感謝您參加今天的演講。您可以斷開連線了。