奇波雷墨西哥燒烤 (CMG) 2022 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Good day and welcome to the Chipotle Mexican Grill Fourth Quarter 2022 Results Conference Call. (Operator Instructions) Please note, this event is being recorded.

美好的一天，歡迎來到 Chipotle Mexican Grill 2022 年第四季度業績電話會議。 （操作員說明）請注意，正在記錄此事件。

I would now like to turn the conference over to Cindy Olsen, Head of Investor Relations and Strategy. Please go ahead.

我現在想把會議轉交給投資者關係和戰略主管 Cindy Olsen。請繼續。

Hello, everyone, and welcome to our fourth quarter fiscal 2022 earnings call.

大家好，歡迎來到我們的 2022 財年第四季度財報電話會議。

By now, you should have access to our earnings press release. If not, it may be found on our Investor Relations website at ir.chipotle.com.

到目前為止，您應該可以訪問我們的收益新聞稿。如果沒有，可以在我們的投資者關係網站 ir.chipotle.com 上找到。

I will begin by reminding you that certain statements and projections made in this presentation about our future business and financial results constitute forward-looking statements. These are based on management's current business and market expectations, and our actual results could differ materially from those projected in the forward-looking statements. Please see the risk factors contained in our annual report on Form 10-K and in our Form 10-Qs for a discussion of risks that may cause our actual results to vary from these forward-looking statements.

我將首先提醒您，本演示文稿中關於我們未來業務和財務結果的某些陳述和預測構成前瞻性陳述。這些是基於管理層當前的業務和市場預期，我們的實際結果可能與前瞻性陳述中預測的結果存在重大差異。請參閱我們的 10-K 表格年度報告和 10-Q 表格中包含的風險因素，以討論可能導致我們的實際結果與這些前瞻性陳述不同的風險。

Our discussion today will include non-GAAP financial measures. A reconciliation to GAAP measures can be found via the link included on the presentation page within the Investor Relations section of our website.

我們今天的討論將包括非 GAAP 財務指標。可以通過我們網站投資者關係部分演示頁面上包含的鏈接找到與 GAAP 措施的對賬。

We will start today's call with prepared remarks from Brian Niccol, Chairman and Chief Executive Officer; and Jack Hartung, Chief Financial and Administrative Officer, after which, we will take your questions. Our entire executive leadership team is available during the Q&A session.

今天的電話會議將從董事長兼首席執行官 Brian Niccol 準備好的發言開始；以及首席財務和行政官 Jack Hartung，之後，我們將回答您的問題。在問答環節期間，我們的整個執行領導團隊都在場。

And with that, I will turn the call over to Brian.

有了這個，我會把電話轉給布賴恩。

Thanks, Cindy, and good afternoon, everyone.

謝謝，辛迪，大家下午好。

We delivered another year of strong results in 2022, expanding AUVs and restaurant-level margin despite facing one of the highest inflationary periods on record and an uncertain macro environment. These results demonstrate Chipotle's resiliency driven by our talented teams, delicious food made fresh daily, convenience, customization, and of course, our tremendous value.

我們在 2022 年又取得了強勁的業績，儘管面臨有記錄以來通脹最高的時期之一和不確定的宏觀環境，但 AUV 和餐廳級利潤率仍在擴大。這些結果證明了 Chipotle 在我們才華橫溢的團隊、每天新鮮製作的美味食物、便利性、定制化，當然還有我們巨大的價值的推動下的彈性。

For the year, sales grew 14% to reach $8.6 billion driven by an 8% comp. Digital sales represented 39% of sales. Restaurant-level margin was 23.9%, an increase of 130 basis points year-over-year. Adjusted diluted EPS was $32.78, representing 29% growth over last year, and we opened 236 new restaurants, including 202 Chipotlanes.

全年銷售額增長 14%，達到 86 億美元，增幅為 8%。數字銷售額佔銷售額的 39%。餐廳層面的利潤率為 23.9%，同比增長 130 個基點。調整後的攤薄每股收益為 32.78 美元，比去年增長 29%，我們新開了 236 家餐廳，其中包括 202 家 Chipotlanes。

Turning to the fourth quarter. While we are pleased with our overall growth, our results were impacted by a few factors that were unique to the quarter, including a lower-than-expected benefit from Garlic Guajillo Steak and a headwind from loyalty accounting.

轉到第四季度。雖然我們對整體增長感到滿意，但我們的業績受到本季度獨有的一些因素的影響，包括 Garlic Guajillo Steak 的收益低於預期以及忠誠度會計的逆風。

For the quarter, sales grew 11% to $2.2 billion driven by a 5.6% comp. In-store sales grew by 18% over last year. Digital sales continue to represent 37% of sales. Restaurant-level margin was 24%, an increase of 380 basis points year-over-year. Adjusted diluted EPS was $8.29, representing 49% growth over last year, and we opened 100 new restaurants, including 90 Chipotlanes.

本季度銷售額增長 11% 至 22 億美元，受 5.6% 的推動。店內銷售額比去年增長了 18%。數字銷售額繼續佔銷售額的 37%。餐廳層面的利潤率為 24%，同比增長 380 個基點。調整後的攤薄每股收益為 8.29 美元，比去年增長 49%，我們新開了 100 家餐廳，其中包括 90 家 Chipotlanes。

Our transaction trends improved throughout the quarter as we lapped brisket, and I'm pleased to report that our underlying trends have further improved entering 2023, with transaction trends turning positive. For the first quarter, we anticipate comps in the high single-digit range.

我們的交易趨勢在整個季度都有所改善，因為我們對牛胸肉進行了處理，我很高興地報告說，進入 2023 年，我們的基本趨勢進一步改善，交易趨勢轉為積極。對於第一季度，我們預計 comps 在高個位數範圍內。

Our focus on getting back to the basics and running great restaurants is beginning to pay off, and we plan to further emphasize this in 2023. Additionally, we will continue to build upon our 5 key strategies that will help us to win today while we create the future.

我們專注於返璞歸真和經營優質餐廳的努力開始取得回報，我們計劃在 2023 年進一步強調這一點。此外，我們將繼續建立 5 大關鍵戰略，這些戰略將幫助我們在創造今天的同時取得成功未來。

Now let me provide an update on each of these strategies, which include: number one, running successful restaurants with a people-accountable culture that provides great Food with Integrity while delivering exceptional in-restaurant and digital experiences; number two, sustaining world-class people leadership by developing and retaining diverse talent at every level; number three, amplifying technology and innovation to drive growth and productivity at our restaurants and support centers; number four, making the brand visible, relevant and loved to improve overall guest engagement; and number five, expanding access and convenience by accelerating new restaurant openings.

現在讓我對這些策略中的每一個進行更新，其中包括：第一，以對人負責的文化經營成功的餐廳，提供誠信的美食，同時提供卓越的餐廳內和數字體驗；第二，通過在各個層面培養和留住多元化人才來維持世界一流的人才領導力；第三，擴大技術和創新以推動我們餐廳和支持中心的增長和生產力；第四，讓品牌可見、相關和受歡迎，以提高整體賓客參與度；第五，通過加速開設新餐廳來擴大訪問範圍和便利性。

Beginning with our restaurants. As we discussed on the last call, Chipotle is a restaurant business with high standards, and it is critical that we treasure the guest and deliver an exceptional experience, including great culinary and in-restaurant execution. During the pandemic, there were unforeseen challenges, such as supply outages, staffing challenges and exclusions from COVID that resulted in a need to create workarounds. We have been eliminating the workarounds and reestablishing operational standards with Project Square One while continuing to build a culture of excellence in every aspect of our business. This means ensuring all ingredients are in stock, that our teams are fully staffed and properly deployed during peak periods to drive throughput, that our delicious food is prepped and cooked on time, that we are improving throughput on the frontline and improving on time and accuracy on the digital make-line; and of course, that we are delivering exceptional customer hospitality. Project Square One has helped to lay the foundations, including training in each of these areas. We are also bringing back more shoulder-to-shoulder training.

從我們的餐廳開始。正如我們在上次電話會議上討論的那樣，Chipotle 是一家高標準的餐廳企業，我們珍惜客人並提供非凡的體驗至關重要，包括出色的烹飪和餐廳內的執行。在大流行期間，存在不可預見的挑戰，例如供應中斷、人員配置挑戰和 COVID 排除，導致需要創建變通辦法。我們一直在通過 Project Square One 消除變通辦法並重新建立運營標準，同時繼續在我們業務的各個方面建立卓越文化。這意味著確保所有原料都有庫存，確保我們的團隊在高峰期配備齊全並適當部署以提高吞吐量，確保我們的美味食物按時準備和烹製，我們正在提高前線的吞吐量並提高準時性和準確性在數字生產線上；當然，我們正在提供卓越的客戶服務。 Project Square One 幫助奠定了基礎，包括在每個領域的培訓。我們還恢復了更多的肩並肩訓練。

One thing that I believe everyone has learned from the pandemic is that virtual training is not the only tool needed. So we are reducing the amount of virtual training and bringing new crew members into our restaurants sooner for on-the-job training. This helps to accelerate onboarding and gives more confidence to our new crew members as they are learning by doing. Shoulder-to-shoulder training by experienced managers is an essential process.

我相信每個人都從大流行中學到的一件事是，虛擬培訓並不是唯一需要的工具。因此，我們正在減少虛擬培訓的數量，並讓新的船員更快地進入我們的餐廳進行在職培訓。這有助於加快入職速度，並讓我們的新船員在邊做邊學時更有信心。由經驗豐富的管理人員進行的肩對肩培訓是必不可少的過程。

I'm also happy to see an improvement in turnover with December being one of our best months in the past 2 years for both hourly and salary turnover rates. And our staffing levels continue to improve with 90% of our restaurants fully staffed. This, combined with better stability, leads to more experienced teams.

我也很高興看到營業額有所改善，12 月是我們過去 2 年中每小時和工資流動率最好的月份之一。我們的員工配備水平繼續提高，我們 90% 的餐廳都配備了員工。這與更好的穩定性相結合，導致更有經驗的團隊。

When you combine this with Project Square One training for the past 2 quarters, positive signs are emerging across the operation. We are focused on operational excellence and have intensity and collaboration to achieve it. Great people and great culinary drives performance.

當您將此與過去 2 個季度的 Project Square One 培訓結合起來時，整個運營中都出現了積極的跡象。我們專注於卓越運營，並通過強度和協作來實現它。偉大的人和偉大的烹飪推動績效。

And speaking of great people, I'm proud to share that in 2022, we promoted over 22,000 people, surpassing 2021, and 90% of all restaurant management roles were internal promotions. And we have tremendous growth ahead. In 2023, to open our new restaurants, we will have the opportunity to promote over 1,800 hourly manager roles, over 255 GMs and over 40 field leadership positions. And these numbers will continue to grow as we expand our restaurants by our targeted range of 8% to 10% per year.

說到偉大的人，我很自豪地告訴大家，到 2022 年，我們提拔了 22,000 多人，超過了 2021 年，而且 90% 的餐廳管理職位都是內部提拔。我們有巨大的增長前景。到 2023 年，為了開設我們的新餐廳，我們將有機會提拔 1,800 多個時薪經理職位、255 多個總經理和 40 多個現場領導職位。隨著我們按每年 8% 至 10% 的目標範圍擴大餐廳，這些數字將繼續增長。

As we have said in the past, our goal is to be the employer of choice. In addition to career advancement opportunities, industry-leading benefits and competitive wages, we will continue to look for ways to improve the overall experience for our teams.

正如我們過去所說，我們的目標是成為首選雇主。除了職業發展機會、行業領先的福利和有競爭力的工資外，我們還將繼續尋找改善團隊整體體驗的方法。

We know one way is to continue to invest in technology and innovation. There are a couple of new stage-gate initiatives that I'm excited to share along with an update on improvements to our app functionality. First, we are currently testing a new grill to improve the overall cooking process for our chicken and steak. The grill is much faster and has consistent execution, which lowers the learning curve significantly. Importantly, we believe it maintains our high culinary standards and can cook the chicken and steak to perfection. We look forward to further validating it through our stage-gate process.

我們知道一種方法是繼續投資於技術和創新。我很高興與大家分享一些新的階段性舉措以及我們應用程序功能改進的更新。首先，我們目前正在測試一種新的烤架，以改進雞肉和牛排的整體烹飪過程。烤架速度更快並且執行一致，這顯著降低了學習曲線。重要的是，我們相信它保持了我們的高烹飪標準，可以將雞肉和牛排烹製得恰到好處。我們期待通過我們的階段門流程進一步驗證它。

And second, you may remember that in the second quarter, we announced Hyphen as one of our first investments in our Cultivate Next fund. Hyphen is a food service platform that automates the assembly of meals on the digital make-line and could help fulfill our promise to deliver on-time, accurate orders for our digital guests. This would allow our restaurant teams to focus more on our in-restaurant guests on the frontline, further improving throughput. I'm thrilled to share that together with Hyphen, we are developing our first automated digital make-line prototype, which we will test and learn on, and we expect to have it in our Cultivate center in the first half of this year.

其次，您可能還記得，在第二季度，我們宣布將 Hyphen 作為我們對 Cultivate Next 基金的首批投資之一。 Hyphen 是一個食品服務平台，可在數字生產線上自動組裝餐點，並有助於履行我們為數字客戶準時、準確交付訂單的承諾。這將使我們的餐廳團隊能夠更多地關注前線的餐廳客人，從而進一步提高吞吐量。我很高興與 Hyphen 一起分享這一點，我們正在開發我們的第一個自動化數字生產線原型，我們將對其進行測試和學習，我們希望在今年上半年將其投入我們的 Cultivate 中心。

Speaking of our digital business, it is over $3 billion in revenue and represents 39% of our sales, and we're constantly looking for ways to improve the experience for our guests. Last quarter, we started testing advanced location-based technology to enhance our app functionality. For guests who opt in, the program can engage with Chipotle app users upon arrival to our restaurants and utilize real-time data to enhance their experience with order readiness messaging, wrong pickup location detection, reminders to scan the Chipotle Rewards QR code at checkout and more.

說到我們的數字業務，它的收入超過 30 億美元，占我們銷售額的 39%，我們一直在尋找改善客人體驗的方法。上個季度，我們開始測試先進的基於位置的技術以增強我們的應用程序功能。對於選擇加入的客人，該計劃可以在抵達我們的餐廳時與 Chipotle 應用程序用戶互動，並利用實時數據來增強他們的體驗，包括訂單準備消息、錯誤的取件位置檢測、結賬時掃描 Chipotle Rewards 二維碼的提醒以及更多的。

The results from the stage-gate process were very encouraging, including an improvement in delivery speed, a reduction in customers going to the wrong location and an improvement in the experience for our Rewards guests, allowing them to quickly scan for their Rewards points without impacting throughput. As a result, we rolled it out nationwide last month.

Stage-gate 過程的結果非常令人鼓舞，包括交付速度的提高、客戶去錯地點的減少以及我們的獎勵客人體驗的改善，使他們能夠快速掃描他們的獎勵積分而不會影響吞吐量。結果，我們上個月在全國范圍內推出了它。

Moving on to making our brand more visible, more relevant and more loved. Our Real Food for Real Athletes platform has been a success as we partner with athletes of all levels who are fans of Chipotle and focus on helping them perform their best by providing proper nutrition through real food and real ingredients.

繼續讓我們的品牌更引人注目、更相關、更受喜愛。我們的 Real Food for Real Athletes 平台取得了成功，因為我們與所有級別的 Chipotle 粉絲合作，並專注於通過真正的食物和真正的成分提供適當的營養，幫助他們發揮最佳水平。

During the fourth quarter, we teamed up with U.S. Men's National Soccer Team stars, Christian Pulisic and Weston McKennie to showcase their journey to soccer's biggest international tournament while featuring the athletes' go-to orders in our app. We also continue to leverage social media to remain relevant with our consumers, especially Gen Z. This year, we surpassed 2 million TikTok followers, which to put into context rival some of the largest brands in the world. And we were the first brand to launch on the new social media platform, BeReal.

在第四季度，我們與美國男子國家足球隊球星克里斯蒂安·普利西奇和韋斯頓·麥肯尼合作，展示他們參加這項最盛大的國際足球錦標賽的歷程，同時在我們的應用程序中展示運動員的首選訂單。我們還繼續利用社交媒體與我們的消費者保持聯繫，尤其是 Z 世代。今年，我們的 TikTok 粉絲數量超過 200 萬，可以與世界上一些最大的品牌相媲美。我們是第一個在新社交媒體平台 BeReal 上發布的品牌。

Shifting to menu innovation. As we mentioned last quarter, 2023 will consist of 1 to 2 LTOs. I'm delighted to share that Chicken Al Pastore has been validated and ready to be rolled out in the near future. This new menu item is operationally simple to execute while still providing a new exciting flavor that drive transactions and sales.

轉向菜單創新。正如我們上個季度提到的，2023 年將有 1 到 2 個 LTO。我很高興與大家分享 Chicken Al Pastore 已經過驗證並準備在不久的將來推出。這個新的菜單項在操作上很容易執行，同時仍然提供了一種新的令人興奮的風味來推動交易和銷售。

We also recently launched a new lineup of Lifestyle Bowls that cater to contemporary wellness habits of Gen Z and millennials. The lineup spans a wide range of healthy habits such as our Balanced Macros Bowl, our High Protein Bowl and our Grain Freedom Bowl. Lifestyle Bowls are a great way to show our customers that they can create balanced meals made with our existing ingredients that taste great and that they feel great eating.

我們最近還推出了一系列新的生活方式碗，以滿足 Z 世代和千禧一代的當代健康習慣。該系列涵蓋了廣泛的健康習慣，例如我們的 Balanced Macros Bowl、我們的 High Protein Bowl 和我們的 Grain Freedom Bowl。 Lifestyle Bowls 是向我們的顧客展示他們可以用我們現有的食材製作均衡的飯菜的好方法，這些飯菜味道很好，而且他們吃起來感覺很好。

Turning to our Rewards program. In 2022, we increased our Rewards members by 20% to 31.6 million. Our program continues to get more sophisticated as we better understand who our members are and serve them with relevant content, targeted offers and gamified badging to help drive transactions. In 2022, 60% of our Rewards program promotions were personalized, and we plan to increase this going forward. To drive engagement and enroll new members, we recently introduced Freepotle, which offers each Rewards member 10 personalized free rewards throughout the year.

轉向我們的獎勵計劃。 2022 年，我們的獎勵會員增加了 20%，達到 3160 萬。隨著我們更好地了解我們的會員並為他們提供相關內容、有針對性的優惠和遊戲化徽章以幫助推動交易，我們的計劃將繼續變得更加複雜。 2022 年，我們 60% 的獎勵計劃促銷活動是個性化的，我們計劃在未來增加這一比例。為了提高參與度和招收新會員，我們最近推出了 Freepotle，全年為每位 Rewards 會員提供 10 項個性化免費獎勵。

Our fifth strategic pillar is to expand access, and our development team has done an outstanding job of navigating headwinds such as material shortages and permitting and inspection delays while successfully opening 236 new restaurants in 2022, including 202 Chipotlanes. In fact, we opened 100 new restaurants in the fourth quarter, which was a record for the company. We also opened our 500th Chipotlane during the quarter as we expanded access and convenience through our unique digital drive-through format, and the performance of Chipotlanes continues to be strong. In fact, since we began opening Chipotles in 2018, our new restaurant productivity has improved by about 1,000 basis points. We plan to open 255 to 285 new restaurants in 2023 with over 80% including Chipotlanes.

我們的第五個戰略支柱是擴大准入，我們的開發團隊出色地克服了材料短缺、許可和檢查延遲等不利因素，並在 2022 年成功開設了 236 家新餐廳，其中包括 202 家 Chipotlanes。事實上，我們在第四季度開設了 100 家新餐廳，這是公司的記錄。我們還在本季度開設了第 500 家 Chipotlane，因為我們通過我們獨特的數字得來速模式擴大了訪問和便利性，並且 Chipotlanes 的表現繼續強勁。事實上，自從我們在 2018 年開始開設 Chipotles 以來，我們新餐廳的生產力提高了大約 1,000 個基點。我們計劃在 2023 年開設 255 至 285 家新餐廳，其中超過 80% 包括 Chipotlanes。

Within our 2023 expansion plans, we will accelerate new restaurant growth in Canada and continue to open restaurants at a measured pace in Europe. In Canada, we have built out a strong local field leadership team that works closely with our U.S. team to ensure best practices and a consistent culture while adapting to local needs. We are now ready for accelerated growth and plan to add around 10 new restaurants in 2023, which will be the fastest development growth rate since we entered the Canadian market.

在我們的 2023 年擴張計劃中，我們將加速加拿大新餐廳的增長，並繼續在歐洲以有節制的速度開設餐廳。在加拿大，我們建立了一支強大的本地現場領導團隊，該團隊與我們的美國團隊密切合作，以確保最佳實踐和一致的文化，同時適應當地需求。我們現在已經準備好加速增長，計劃在2023年新增約10家餐廳，這將是我們進入加拿大市場以來最快的發展增長率。

We also remain encouraged by the performance in Europe despite a challenging macroeconomic backdrop. In 2023, we plan to add a few additional locations in the U.K., and we are also rolling out our digital capabilities to further expand access. We remain optimistic about the growth opportunity, and we'll continue to update on Europe's progress of the stage-gate process along the way.

儘管宏觀經濟背景充滿挑戰，但我們仍對歐洲的表現感到鼓舞。 2023 年，我們計劃在英國增加幾個地點，我們還將推出我們的數字功能以進一步擴大訪問範圍。我們仍然對增長機會持樂觀態度，我們將在此過程中繼續更新歐洲在階段門進程中的進展。

In closing, I want to thank our restaurant and support center teams for another terrific year. Our focus on getting back to the basics is starting to pay off. Our teams are energized, and I'm excited to see further progress over the coming quarters. We have a long growth runway ahead with the ability to more than double our restaurant count, grow AUVs beyond $3 million and expand margins. I believe we have the right team and strategy in place, and we will remain focused on meeting the standards of excellence that make Chipotle, Chipotle.

最後，我要感謝我們的餐廳和支持中心團隊，讓我們度過了又一個精彩的一年。我們對回歸基礎的關注開始得到回報。我們的團隊充滿活力，我很高興看到未來幾個季度取得進一步進展。我們有很長的增長路要走，有能力將我們的餐廳數量增加一倍以上，使 AUV 超過 300 萬美元並擴大利潤率。我相信我們擁有合適的團隊和適當的戰略，我們將繼續專注於滿足使 Chipotle 成為 Chipotle 的卓越標準。

And with that, I will turn it over to Jack.

有了這個，我會把它交給傑克。

Thanks, Brian, and good afternoon, everyone.

謝謝，布萊恩，大家下午好。

Sales in the fourth quarter grew 11% year-over-year to reach $2.2 billion as comp sales grew 5.6%, which included about an 80 basis point headwind related to our loyalty program. In Q4 of each year, we reevaluate the estimated loyalty breakage for points that will expire. And this year, we decreased our estimate due to higher member engagement.

第四季度的銷售額同比增長 11%，達到 22 億美元，因為 comp 銷售額增長 5.6%，其中包括與我們的忠誠度計劃相關的約 80 個基點的逆風。在每年的第 4 季度，我們會重新評估即將到期的積分的估計忠誠度損失。今年，由於會員參與度更高，我們降低了預估。

Restaurant-level margin of 24% increased about 380 basis points compared to last year. In addition to loyalty program headwind, restaurant-level margin was impacted by a higher level of sick pay and medical claims in the quarter compared to our expectations. Earnings per share adjusted for unusual items was $8.29, representing 49% year-over-year growth. The fourth quarter had unusual expenses related to legal expenses, our previously disclosed 2018 performance share modification and corporate restructuring.

餐廳層面的利潤率為 24%，與去年相比增加了約 380 個基點。除了忠誠度計劃的不利因素外，與我們的預期相比，本季度餐廳級別的利潤率受到更高水平的病假工資和醫療索賠的影響。不尋常項目調整後的每股收益為 8.29 美元，同比增長 49%。第四季度有與法律費用、我們先前披露的 2018 年業績份額修改和公司重組相關的異常費用。

Turning to our sales outlook for 2023. As Brian mentioned, we've seen the transaction trends turn positive as we remain focused on delivering a great guest experience. January comps were in the low double digits. And for Q1, factoring in momentum we've seen quarter-to-date as well as tougher comparisons as we move through the remainder of the quarter, we anticipate comp sales to be in the high single-digit range.

談到我們 2023 年的銷售前景。正如布賴恩所提到的，我們已經看到交易趨勢轉好，因為我們仍然專注於提供出色的客戶體驗。一月份的收入處於低兩位數。對於第一季度，考慮到我們在本季度剩餘時間內看到的季度至今以及更嚴格的比較的勢頭，我們預計 comp 銷售額將處於高個位數範圍內。

While it's difficult to forecast comps for the rest of the year, considering economic uncertainty, including the possibility of recession, we expect comps to moderate as we lap menu price increases in early Q2 and the middle of Q3.

雖然很難預測今年剩餘時間的收入，但考慮到經濟的不確定性，包括經濟衰退的可能性，我們預計收入會隨著第二季度初和第三季度中期的菜單價格上漲而放緩。

I'll now go through the key P&L line items, beginning with cost of sales. Cost of sales in the quarter were 29.3%, a decrease of about 230 basis points from last year. The benefit of menu price increases and lower avocado prices offset elevated costs across the board, most notably in dairy, tortillas, beans, rice and salsa. In Q1, we expect our cost of sales to be in the high-29% range due to higher prices across several items, including queso, salsa, spices and oil.

我現在將通過關鍵的 P&L 行項目，從銷售成本開始。本季度銷售成本為 29.3%，比去年下降約 230 個基點。菜單價格上漲和鱷梨價格下降的好處抵消了全面的成本上漲，尤其是在乳製品、玉米餅、豆類、大米和莎莎醬方面。在第一季度，我們預計我們的銷售成本將處於 29% 的高位範圍內，因為包括 queso、salsa、香料和油在內的多種商品價格上漲。

Labor costs for the quarter were 25.6%, a decrease of about 80 basis points from last year. The benefit of sales leverage was somewhat offset by wage inflation in addition to higher-than-expected sick pay and medical claims. For Q1, we expect our labor cost to improve slightly but remain in the mid-25% range due to seasonally higher employee taxes as employee taxes start the year at an elevated level due to resetting of wage caps.

本季度的勞動力成本為 25.6%，比去年下降了約 80 個基點。除了高於預期的病假工資和醫療索賠之外，工資上漲在一定程度上抵消了銷售槓桿的好處。對於第一季度，我們預計我們的勞動力成本將略有改善，但由於員工稅因季節性上漲而保持在 25% 的中間範圍內，因為員工稅因重置工資上限而在年初處於較高水平。

Other operating costs for the quarter were 15.7%, a decrease of about 60 basis points from last year. This decrease was driven by a decline in delivery expenses due to lower delivery sales as well as sales leverage, partially offset by higher costs across several expenses, including natural gas and maintenance and repairs.

本季度其他運營成本為 15.7%，比去年下降約 60 個基點。這一下降是由於交付銷售和銷售槓桿率下降導致交付費用下降，部分被包括天然氣和維護和維修在內的幾項費用的較高成本所抵消。

Marketing and promo costs for the quarter were 3.4%, 20 basis points below last year. In Q1, we expect marketing costs to be in the mid-3% range with the full year to come in around 3%. In Q1, other operating costs are expected to be in the low 15% range.

本季度的營銷和促銷成本為 3.4%，比去年低 20 個基點。在第一季度，我們預計營銷成本將在 3% 左右，全年約為 3%。第一季度，其他運營成本預計將在 15% 的較低範圍內。

G&A for the quarter was $135 million on a GAAP basis or $129 million on a non-GAAP basis, excluding $4 million in legal expenses, $1 million related to the previously disclosed modification to our 2018 performance shares and $1 million related to transformation expenses. G&A also included $119 million in underlying G&A, $18 million related to noncash stock compensation, which includes a reduction in the estimated payout levels of our performance-based stock awards and was offset by $8 million reduction in performance-based bonus accruals.

本季度的 G&A 按 GAAP 計算為 1.35 億美元，按非 GAAP 計算為 1.29 億美元，其中不包括 400 萬美元的法律費用、與先前披露的 2018 年業績份額修改相關的 100 萬美元以及與轉型費用相關的 100 萬美元。 G&A 還包括 1.19 億美元的基本 G&A，1800 萬美元與非現金股票薪酬相關，其中包括我們基於績效的股票獎勵的估計支付水平的減少，並被基於績效的應計獎金減少 800 萬美元所抵消。

We expect our underlying G&A to be around $121 million in Q1 and continue to grow slightly thereafter as we make investments in technology and people to support ongoing growth. We anticipate stock comp will be around $25 million in Q1, although this amount could move up or down based on our performance and is subject to the 2023 grants, which are issued in Q1. We also expect to recognize around $7 million related to employer taxes associated with shares that vest during the quarter and $2 million for costs associated with our field leader conference in February, bringing our anticipated total G&A in Q1 to around $155 million.

我們預計第一季度我們的基礎 G&A 約為 1.21 億美元，此後隨著我們對技術和人員進行投資以支持持續增長，此後將繼續略有增長。我們預計第一季度的股票薪酬將約為 2500 萬美元，儘管這一數額可能會根據我們的表現上下浮動，並受第一季度發放的 2023 年贈款的影響。我們還預計將確認約 700 萬美元與本季度歸屬的股票相關的雇主稅，以及 200 萬美元與我們 2 月份的現場領導會議相關的費用，使我們預計第一季度的 G&A 總額達到約 1.55 億美元。

Depreciation for the quarter was $74 million or 3.4% of sales, and for the full year 2023, we expect it to inch up slightly each quarter as we open more restaurants. Our effective tax rate for Q4 was 26.3% for GAAP and 25.1% for non-GAAP. And for 2023, we continue to estimate our underlying effective tax rate will be in the 25% to 27% range, though it may vary based on discrete items.

本季度的折舊為 7400 萬美元，佔銷售額的 3.4%，對於 2023 年全年，我們預計隨著我們開設更多餐廳，每個季度的折舊都會小幅上升。我們第四季度的有效稅率為 GAAP 的 26.3% 和非 GAAP 的 25.1%。對於 2023 年，我們繼續估計我們的基本有效稅率將在 25% 至 27% 的範圍內，儘管它可能會因離散項目而異。

Our balance sheet remains strong as we ended the quarter with $1.3 billion in cash, restricted cash and investments with no debt, along with a $500 million untapped revolver. During the fourth quarter, we repurchased $199 million of our stock at an average price of $1,487. And we repurchased a total of $827 million in 2022, which was the largest amount ever repurchased in a single year. We increased our level of stock repurchases during the quarter when our share price fell with the market overall, and we'll continue to opportunistically repurchase our stock.

我們的資產負債表依然強勁，因為我們在本季度結束時擁有 13 億美元的現金、受限制的現金和無債務投資，以及 5 億美元的未動用左輪手槍。第四季度，我們以平均 1,487 美元的價格回購了 1.99 億美元的股票。我們在 2022 年共回購了 8.27 億美元，這是有史以來最大的單年回購金額。當我們的股價隨市場整體下跌時，我們在本季度提高了股票回購水平，我們將繼續機會主義地回購我們的股票。

During the quarter, our Board authorized an additional $200 million to our share authorization program. And at the end of the quarter, we had $414 million remaining. We opened a record 100 new restaurants in the fourth quarter, of which 90 had a Chipotlane, and we remain on track to open 255 to 285 new restaurants in 2023 with at least 80% including a Chipotlane.

在本季度，我們的董事會為我們的股票授權計劃額外授權了 2 億美元。在本季度末，我們還剩下 4.14 億美元。我們在第四季度開設了創紀錄的 100 家新餐廳，其中 90 家擁有 Chipotlane，我們仍有望在 2023 年開設 255 至 285 家新餐廳，其中至少 80% 包括 Chipotlane。

Development delays remain a headwind, including utility installations, permitting and inspection delays, construction, labor challenges and component and raw material shortages. While we expect these challenges to persist into 2023, our pipeline remains strong, and we expect to move toward the high end of the 8% to 10% openings range once these headwinds subside.

開發延遲仍然是一個不利因素，包括公用設施安裝、許可和檢查延遲、施工、勞動力挑戰以及組件和原材料短缺。雖然我們預計這些挑戰將持續到 2023 年，但我們的渠道依然強勁，一旦這些不利因素消退，我們預計將向 8% 至 10% 的開放範圍的高端移動。

To conclude, we're off to a strong start in 2023 with early signs of progress from our focus on getting back to the basics of running great restaurants and treasuring our guests. While we cannot predict how the macroeconomic environment will play out over the next 12 months, we will continue to strengthen our operations and work hard to earn each and every customer visit.

總而言之，我們在 2023 年有了一個良好的開端，早期跡象表明我們的重點是回到經營一流餐廳和珍惜客人的基礎上。雖然我們無法預測未來 12 個月的宏觀經濟環境將如何發展，但我們將繼續加強我們的運營並努力贏得每一位客戶的光臨。

I want to thank our restaurant teams and our restaurant support teams for all their hard work this year and for their commitment to Chipotle.

我要感謝我們的餐廳團隊和餐廳支持團隊今年的辛勤工作以及他們對 Chipotle 的承諾。

With that, we're happy to take your questions.

有了這個，我們很樂意回答您的問題。

(Operator Instructions) And the first question will be from David Tarantino from Baird.

（操作員說明）第一個問題將來自 Baird 的 David Tarantino。

I have a couple of questions about your commentary on traffic trends. I think, Brian, you mentioned that underlying traffic trends have turned positive, if I heard that correctly. So I'm wondering what you meant by the word underlying, if you're making some adjustments to that. And I know January had a lot of puts and takes with respect to the comparison against Omicron last year, and then perhaps we had some favorable weather this year. So I'm wondering, it seems like you're linking some of the traffic progress towards some of your internal initiatives. And I'm wondering how you're adjusting for some of the factors that maybe were outside your control.

關於您對交通趨勢的評論，我有幾個問題。我想，布賴恩，如果我沒聽錯的話，你提到潛在的流量趨勢已經轉為積極。所以我想知道你所說的底層這個詞是什麼意思，如果你正在對此進行一些調整。而且我知道 1 月份在與去年與 Omicron 的比較方面有很多看跌期權，然後今年我們可能遇到了一些有利的天氣。所以我想知道，您似乎正在將一些流量進展與您的一些內部計劃聯繫起來。我想知道您是如何針對一些可能超出您控制範圍的因素進行調整的。

Yes. So the -- first of all, underlying just means transactions. There wasn't anything there. So thanks for asking for the clarity. And basically, what we saw is as we exited the quarter, our transactions turned positive, and then we saw that continue to build in January.

是的。所以 - 首先，底層只是意味著交易。那裡什麼都沒有。因此，感謝您要求澄清。基本上，我們看到的是當我們退出本季度時，我們的交易轉為正數，然後我們看到這種情況在 1 月份繼續增加。

You're right, there's some Omicron and then there were some good weather. But what we've also seen is our staffing is at the best it's been. Our turnover is at the best it's been in 2 years. And I think the combination of focusing on the basics, meaning no menu deactivations, keeping the lines open, both our frontline and digital make-line from open to close, teams deployed correctly, is also a key driver in why we're seeing the traffic progress in January throughout that whole month.

你是對的，有一些 Omicron，然後有一些好天氣。但我們還看到，我們的人員配備處於最佳狀態。我們的營業額是兩年來最好的。而且我認為將重點放在基礎上，這意味著沒有菜單停用，保持生產線暢通，我們的前線和數字生產線從開放到關閉，團隊部署正確，這也是我們看到的關鍵驅動因素整個月一月份的交通進展情況。

So we're feeling good about where we are operationally. We believe we can still get even better as we get closer and closer to our infamous burrito season. But it's a great position of strength that we're walking forward from. And we like how we exited December and we like how January shaped up.

因此，我們對我們的運營狀況感覺良好。我們相信，隨著臭名昭著的墨西哥捲餅季節越來越近，我們仍然可以做得更好。但這是我們向前邁進的一個很好的優勢地位。我們喜歡 12 月的表現，也喜歡 1 月的表現。

Great. And if I could just ask one follow-up on the operations. I'm wondering if you could maybe elaborate on what metrics other than transactions that you're focused on and how those are progressing and what you think maybe the ultimate target for those should be as you progress through the year or maybe work towards your goals there.

偉大的。如果我能問一個關於操作的後續行動。我想知道您是否可以詳細說明您關注的交易以外的指標以及這些指標的進展情況以及您認為這些指標的最終目標應該是什麼，因為您在這一年中取得進展或者可能朝著您的目標努力那裡。

Yes. Sure. So I'd like to put a little color on this, menu deactivations in our digital business. Obviously, during the course of the last couple of years, we've had a lot of supply chain challenges, and one of the workarounds we created was allowing teams to deactivate certain items, right, so whether it's Guac or Chips or anything on those lines. And we've kind of just reestablished with both our suppliers, our distribution partners and our teams that that's not a fallback position anymore.

是的。當然。所以我想給我們的數字業務中的菜單停用添加一些顏色。顯然，在過去幾年中，我們遇到了很多供應鏈挑戰，我們創建的解決方法之一是允許團隊停用某些物品，對吧，所以無論是 Guac 還是 Chips 或其他任何東西線。我們已經與我們的供應商、分銷合作夥伴和我們的團隊重新建立了關係，這不再是後備立場。

The expectation is -- I don't know. Can you hear me, David?

期望是——我不知道。你能聽到我說話嗎，大衛？

I can.

我可以。

Okay. The expectation is you should be in stock, and then you should be prepared from open to close with those items. So there were points and times during that quarter where we had hundreds of menu deactivations, and now we're back into the single digits on how that's going. So that's a key metric.

好的。期望您應該有存貨，然後您應該準備好從開盤到收盤這些物品。因此，在那個季度的某些時間點和時間，我們有數百個菜單停用，現在我們又回到了個位數。所以這是一個關鍵指標。

Another key metric would be our digital on-time percentage. That's improved by nearly 10 points. And so I think that's a function again of being deployed correctly, staffed correctly and then obviously, having the ingredients you need in order to build the order correctly. And then we've seen some progress on throughput as well on the frontline. And I anticipate really where we'll see big movement on throughput is more towards the second quarter, when we get into kind of more of our peak performance, and that's why you saw us focus on hiring so many additional people.

另一個關鍵指標是我們的數字準時率。這提高了近 10 個百分點。因此，我認為這又是一個功能，即正確部署、正確配備人員，然後顯然，擁有正確構建訂單所需的成分。然後我們在前線看到了吞吐量方面的一些進步。我真的預計我們會在第二季度看到吞吐量的巨大變化，屆時我們將進入更多的巔峰表現，這就是為什麼你看到我們專注於僱傭這麼多額外的人。

So there's a lot of good indicators beyond just the traffic trends that we've seen. I always like to start with, hey, if you got more stability, your teams are deployed correctly, they're trained correctly, and then we keep it very focused on the basics of running the restaurant, we know we get good outcomes.

因此，除了我們看到的流量趨勢之外，還有很多好的指標。我總是喜歡開始，嘿，如果你有更多的穩定性，你的團隊部署正確，他們接受了正確的培訓，然後我們非常專注於經營餐廳的基礎知識，我們知道我們會取得好的結果。

And the next question is from Sara Senatore from Bank of America.

下一個問題來自美國銀行的 Sara Senatore。

I have a follow-up on labor and staffing and then a quick one on the new units. So just on the labor piece, I guess, could you help me reconcile, I think you've been saying mid-single-digit wage inflation, and I think you had something like 15% price on the menu. So were those hours coming from what you were talking about like the sort of shoulder-to-shoulder job training? Or is that 90% staff -- 90% fully staffed, is that a lot higher than it was? I just trying to think about as we look forward to the year if the late there should be more labor hour investments.

我對勞動力和人員配備進行了跟進，然後對新單位進行了快速跟進。所以就勞動力方面，我想，你能幫我調和一下嗎，我想你一直在說中個位數的工資通脹，我想你的菜單上有大約 15% 的價格。那麼這些時間是否來自您所說的那種肩並肩的工作培訓？或者是 90% 的員工——90% 的員工滿員，這比以前高很多嗎？我只是想考慮一下我們期待的一年是否應該有更多的工時投資。

Yes. Well, I think what we've been referring to more often than not is just the absolute wage that we're paying and then what that inflation subsequent with that has been. The stores, fortunately, are -- we keep track of an at-model metric. And that's what we're referring to where we're closing on 90% of our restaurants being at-model.

是的。好吧，我認為我們經常提到的只是我們支付的絕對工資，然後是隨之而來的通貨膨脹。幸運的是，商店是 - 我們跟踪模型指標。這就是我們所指的關閉我們 90% 的餐廳的地方。

In regard to the shoulder-to-shoulder training, that's just part of our process. And I think there was an element at some point where we're maybe getting too reliant on virtual training versus the shoulder-to-shoulder training, meaning our field leaders, our team directors also need to be in the restaurants doing shoulder-to-shoulder training with our general managers and our new crew. So that should not result in any additional labor cost with having more shoulder-to-shoulder training.

關於肩並肩的訓練，這只是我們過程的一部分。而且我認為在某些時候我們可能過於依賴虛擬培訓而不是肩並肩培訓，這意味著我們的現場領導，我們的團隊主管也需要在餐廳做肩並肩-與我們的總經理和新員工一起進行肩部訓練。因此，進行更多的肩並肩培訓不會導致任何額外的勞動力成本。

But Jack, I don't know if there's anything you want to add to that.

但是傑克，我不知道你是否還有什麼要補充的。

No. No, I think that's right, Sara. And we don't think we need to have incremental investment in labor for the training because the best training is you put your teams in position. You have somebody that's chosen what to do and you have somebody that's watching them to kind of self-correct along the way. So it shouldn't be extra labor per se.

不，不，我認為這是正確的，薩拉。而且我們認為我們不需要為培訓增加勞動力投資，因為最好的培訓是讓您的團隊就位。你有一個人選擇了做什麼，你有一個人在看著他們一路自我糾正。所以它本身不應該是額外的勞動。

Now when we hire 15,000 people, there's going to be some additional training. But I don't think it's going to be anything that you'll see will blow up the labor line or the P&L going forward at all.

現在，當我們僱用 15,000 人時，將會有一些額外的培訓。但我認為你會看到的任何事情都不會破壞勞動力線或未來的損益表。

Okay. So just as we're thinking about kind of the labor, there's still room, I think, what you're saying for improvement on just the restaurant-level margin line of the new comp.

好的。因此，正如我們正在考慮某種勞動力一樣，我認為，您所說的僅在新公司的餐廳級利潤線方面仍有改進空間。

Yes. Definitely.

是的。確實。

Okay. And then just quickly on the new store productivity. Could you clarify that sort of there, it's 1,000 basis points better? Is that because the Chipotlanes open at higher volumes than non-Chipotlanes, and so it's just sort of comparing the different models? Or is there something else going on where across the board, new store productivity is better?

好的。然後快速提高新店的生產力。你能澄清一下嗎，它好 1,000 個基點？那是因為 Chipotlanes 的打開量比非 Chipotlanes 高，所以它只是比較不同的模型？或者是否有其他事情發生，新店的生產力更好？

Yes. Sara, I'll take this. I think it's really more based on the Chipotlanes. Because if you look over the last 4 years or so, you got to look over a longer period of time to look at all the openings, we've moved up our productivity. So for example, today, our restaurants open up on average around 85% of what our existing comp stores are doing. If you look back 3 or 4 years ago, we were in kind of the high 70% range or so. So there's been a step change.

是的。薩拉，我要這個。我認為它實際上更多地基於 Chipotlanes。因為如果你回顧過去 4 年左右的時間，你必須回顧更長的時間才能看到所有的空缺職位，我們已經提高了我們的生產力。因此，例如，今天，我們的餐廳平均開放了我們現有商店營業額的 85% 左右。如果你回顧 3 或 4 年前，我們處於 70% 左右的高位範圍內。所以發生了一步變化。

And the biggest thing that's happened from the 3, 3.5 years ago to today is we've moved from having just a handful of Chipotlanes to having the majority of our portfolio is Chipotlane. And we still -- when we look at what our Chipotlanes are doing, the 85% compared to 15% without a Chipotlane, they continue to outperform that non-Chipotlane cohort. So we think the main driver is the Chipotlane and the convenience that our customers find with that digital drive-through.

從 3、3.5 年前到今天發生的最重要的事情是，我們已經從只有少數 Chipotlanes 轉變為擁有我們投資組合的大部分是 Chipotlane。而且我們仍然 - 當我們看看我們的 Chipotlanes 在做什麼時，85% 與沒有 Chipotlane 的 15% 相比，他們繼續優於非 Chipotlane 隊列。因此，我們認為主要驅動力是 Chipotlane 以及我們的客戶通過數字駕車通過獲得的便利。

The next question will be from David Palmer from Evercore ISI.

下一個問題將來自 Evercore ISI 的 David Palmer。

I wanted to ask a question about digital orders. I've been somewhat surprised by the level of decline there. I think back in the third quarter, we estimated that digital traffic per store decline in the mid-teens. That's including both delivery and pickup. Maybe you can comment on whether you think that was correct, but also how much you think digital traffic per store declined in the fourth quarter. And just relatedly, what are your thoughts about that channel? I know it's important to you. What's your outlook for it? And are there things you can do to stabilize that line?

我想問一個關於數字訂單的問題。我對那裡的下降程度感到有些驚訝。我回想起第三季度，我們估計每家商店的數字流量下降了十幾歲。這包括送貨和取貨。也許您可以評論您認為這是否正確，以及您認為第四季度每家商店的數字流量下降了多少。與此相關的是，您對該頻道有何看法？我知道這對你很重要。您對此有何看法？你能做些什麼來穩定這條線？

Yes. Go ahead, Jack.

是的。來吧，傑克。

Yes. I'll get started, David. Listen, there's a couple of things that are driving it. One is we're having a surge in return to in-restaurant. And so that part of our business is growing very, very healthily throughout the last 1.5 years or 2 years since we've been moving away from the pandemic.

是的。我要開始了，大衛。聽著，有幾件事在推動它。一是我們在餐廳的回報激增。因此，自從我們擺脫大流行以來，在過去的 1.5 年或 2 年裡，我們的這部分業務增長得非常、非常健康。

But secondly, delivery has been declining as well. Delivery transactions in the fourth quarter declined 15%, and that's I think just again a normal kind of move away from people getting out and about. And I think there's probably some people who are deciding that while that channel adds a lot of convenience, there is a higher price that comes with that.

但其次，交付量也一直在下降。第四季度的送貨交易量下降了 15%，我認為這又是一種遠離人們外出的正常現象。而且我認為可能有些人認為雖然該渠道增加了很多便利，但隨之而來的是更高的價格。

So those are the 2 main drivers, and we figured that digital would kind of settle in this high 30% range. And so we're at 37% range now. So it's within the range that we thought we would be in. And early on in the pandemic, we saw our 2 markets that were the least affected, that'd be the Southeast and the Southwest. When they were starting to normalize, they were normalizing towards that high 30% range. So it feels like about the right range for us.

所以這些是 2 個主要驅動因素，我們認為數字會有點穩定在這個 30% 的高範圍內。所以我們現在處於 37% 的範圍內。所以它在我們認為我們會進入的範圍內。在大流行的早期，我們看到我們的兩個市場受影響最小，即東南部和西南部。當他們開始正常化時，他們正在朝著 30% 的高範圍正常化。所以感覺對我們來說是合適的範圍。

So is your view that you're going to start to kind of lap the second quarter, things really step down? Or do you think you're going to enjoy that comparisons when it comes to digital orders and start to stabilize on that channel, and then perhaps enjoy some of the benefits you're talking about with throughput on the front make-line? Is that -- is your belief that you're going to get a dual benefit there?

那麼，您是否認為您將在第二季度開始有所回升，事情真的會緩和下來？還是您認為在涉及數字訂單時您會享受這種比較並開始在該渠道上穩定下來，然後也許會享受您所說的前線生產量帶來的一些好處？那是——你相信你會在那裡獲得雙重利益嗎？

Yes. That's right, David. I mean the way we think about it is we feel like we've reset the delivery business to be now where it makes sense economically. And as such, our order-ahead business, I think, has started to show the right trajectory. And then obviously, our in-store business has shown tremendous acceleration. So I think you said it well.

是的。沒錯，大衛。我的意思是，我們的想法是，我們覺得我們已經將交付業務重新設置為現在在經濟上有意義的地方。因此，我認為我們的提前訂購業務已經開始顯示出正確的軌跡。然後很明顯，我們的店內業務顯示出巨大的加速。所以我覺得你說的很好。

The next question is from Andrew Charles from Cowen.

下一個問題來自 Cowen 的 Andrew Charles。

Jack, I have 2 margin questions for you. There's obviously a lot of noise in 4Q. Labor cost was 1Q guidance for labor. And I'm curious what the impact of higher expected sick claims have in 4Q. And then I missed the term, but there's some external factors that you're betting within the mid-25% labor margins. Can you just help tease us out in terms of what that impact is from that external factor?

傑克，我有 2 個保證金問題要問你。第四季度顯然有很多噪音。勞動力成本是勞動力的第一季度指導。我很好奇更高的預期病假索賠對第四季度有什麼影響。然後我錯過了這個詞，但是有一些外部因素你打賭在 25% 的勞動利潤率範圍內。你能幫我們梳理一下外部因素的影響嗎？

And then my real question is that if we zoom out and fast forward to when you get the $3 million sales volumes, what's your level of confidence in achieving 27% restaurant-level margins relative to what you might have said a quarter ago if the sales structure has obviously been up and to the right and you're rapidly getting towards that target?

然後我真正的問題是，如果我們縮小并快進到你獲得 300 萬美元的銷售額時，相對於你在一個季度前可能所說的，如果銷售額達到 27%，你對實現 27% 餐廳級利潤率的信心水平結構顯然已經向上和向右，你正在迅速朝著那個目標前進？

Yes. So let me start with the fourth quarter. Our expectations were that our margin would be more in the 25% range rather than the 24% range. And when you look at the pieces of how we got down to 24% part of it was the loyalty breakage. Frankly, there was an 80 basis point change year-over-year in the comp related to just that journal entry that we had to book for the breakage. If you look at just the -- there was 30 basis points of additional or reduced breakage that we had to reflect this year. That cost us 20 basis points on the margin. It was 60 basis points on -- we saw higher-than-expected medical claims and sick pay during the quarter as well. We typically do see those things pick up a little bit in the fourth quarter and especially in December. But it -- the surge was more than we expected. That's not something that we would expect to recur.

是的。那麼讓我從第四季度開始。我們的預期是我們的利潤率將在 25% 的範圍內，而不是 24% 的範圍內。當您查看我們如何降低到 24% 的部分時，部分原因是忠誠度下降。坦率地說，與我們必須為破損預訂的日記帳分錄相關的補償年同比變化了 80 個基點。如果你只看 - 我們今年必須反映 30 個額外或減少的破損基點。這使我們損失了 20 個基點的保證金。這是 60 個基點——我們在本季度也看到了高於預期的醫療索賠和病假工資。我們通常確實會看到這些事情在第四季度有所回升，尤其是在 12 月。但它 - 激增超出了我們的預期。這不是我們期望再次發生的事情。

And then sales softened during December as well. I think that went hand-in-hand with softer retail sales. We know there was some weather and a seasonal shift in the holidays and things like that. And that was 20, 30 basis points or so.

然後 12 月的銷售額也有所下降。我認為這與零售銷售疲軟密切相關。我們知道假期中有一些天氣和季節性變化等等。那是 20、30 個基點左右。

So we look at that margin in the fourth quarter. And we think if those things normalize, there is as much as 100 basis points or so that we can get back. We don't get it back all at one time, but we definitely think we have the potential to do that.

所以我們看看第四季度的利潤率。我們認為，如果這些事情正常化，我們可以收回多達 100 個基點左右。我們不會一次全部收回，但我們絕對認為我們有潛力做到這一點。

So with that in mind, if you're looking at more of that high 24% and that 25% range on a normalized basis, then we are confident that as we move from the current volumes on a menu price-adjusted basis just over 20 -- $2.7 million up towards that $3 million, the flow-through that we know our model provides will still get us to that 27%.

因此，考慮到這一點，如果您在正常化的基礎上看到更多的 24% 和 25% 的範圍，那麼我們有信心，當我們從菜單價格調整的基礎上的當前數量移動超過 20 -- 270 萬美元到 300 萬美元，我們知道我們的模型提供的流量仍將使我們達到 27%。

And can you just clarify -- I'm sorry, you said sales were a bit softer than you guys expected in December. But I think earlier in the script, you guys talked about how there was improvement through the quarter. So was that just a reflection that December didn't perform to the level that you guys were really expecting?

你能不能澄清一下——對不起，你說 12 月份的銷售情況比你們預期的要疲軟。但我認為在劇本的早些時候，你們談到了本季度的改進情況。那麼，這是否只是反映出 12 月的表現沒有達到你們真正預期的水平？

Yes. I mean, listen, the way I would describe the quarter, we started out soft and we talked about that in October that we were doing a mid-single-digit comp, that GGS, while there was an attachment rate that was as expected, it wasn't driving transactions. So we started out soft in the quarter. We picked up as we stopped comparing against brisket. That was in the middle of November. So we had, call it, high single-digit comps for a while.

是的。我的意思是，聽著，按照我描述這個季度的方式，我們開始時表現疲軟，我們在 10 月份談到我們正在做一個中等個位數的 comp，即 GGS，雖然附件率符合預期，它沒有推動交易。所以我們在本季度開始表現疲軟。當我們停止與胸肉比較時，我們開始了。那是在十一月中旬。所以我們有一段時間稱之為高單位數補償。

And then we lapped the menu pricing increase from December of 2021. And then just as we got around the holiday, we just didn't see that pop, that momentum that we normally see in -- so December. So the way I would describe it is, frankly, we started the quarter soft and we ended the quarter soft.

然後我們從 2021 年 12 月開始增加菜單價格。然後就在假期前後，我們只是沒有看到那種流行，我們通常在 12 月看到的那種勢頭。所以我要描述的方式是，坦率地說，我們在本季度開始時表現疲軟，在本季度結束時表現疲軟。

Now what we're happy about is, as the holidays -- we got through the holidays and we got into January, that's where our transaction, not just from a comparison standpoint but just on a trend month-over-month, really did improve. And so we feel good about where we go from here. But yes, listen, the fourth quarter was a tough quarter for us.

現在我們高興的是，隨著假期的到來——我們度過了假期，進入了 1 月份，這就是我們的交易，不僅從比較的角度來看，而且從月環比的趨勢來看，確實有所改善.所以我們對我們從這裡去的地方感覺很好。但是，是的，聽著，第四季度對我們來說是一個艱難的季度。

Next question will be from Brian Bittner from Oppenheimer & Co.

下一個問題將來自 Oppenheimer & Co. 的 Brian Bittner。

As you move throughout 2023 and you lap some of these large menu price increases as the year progresses, would you think about replacing them with some type of increases, albeit probably a lot more normalized, more lower price increases? Or do you plan to let these fully roll off? And Jack, as you sit here today, what do you anticipate the total pricing factor to be for the full year '23 for the same-store sales model?

當你在整個 2023 年移動時，隨著時間的推移，你會考慮其中一些大的菜單價格上漲，你會考慮用某種類型的上漲來代替它們，儘管可能更正常、更低的價格上漲嗎？或者你打算讓這些完全滾開？傑克，當你今天坐在這裡時，你預計 23 年全年同店銷售模式的總定價因素是多少？

Yes. So I mean I'll start with that and then we can talk about expectations. We're running right now in that kind of 9% to 10% range. And as I mentioned, it rolls off early in Q3. And then in -- I'm sorry, early in Q2 and mid-Q3. And then there were a couple of delivery adjustments, target adjustments in there as well. We'll end up being somewhere in that kind of mid-single digit because by the time you get to the end of the year, we're running basically 0 pricing. So overall for the year, it will be somewhere in that kind of mid-single digit.

是的。所以我的意思是我將從那開始，然後我們可以討論期望。我們現在在 9% 到 10% 的範圍內運行。正如我所提到的，它會在第三季度初推出。然後 - 對不起，在第二季度初和第三季度中期。然後還有一些交付調整，目標調整也在那裡。我們最終會處於那種中等個位數的某個位置，因為到年底時，我們的定價基本上為 0。因此，今年總體而言，它將處於那種中等個位數的某個位置。

In terms of pricing action, we're not going to take a price increase just to cover a lap over last year. The main thing we're going to do is we're going to watch inflation, and we're going to hope that inflation is tame.

在定價行動方面，我們不會為了比去年多一圈而提高價格。我們要做的主要事情是觀察通貨膨脹，我們希望通貨膨脹是溫和的。

Right now, we know that there is some pressure on a few of our ingredients. Beef is the one that we keep hearing about. We haven't seen it yet, but everyone is predicting that there's going to be greater supply versus demand. But we'll watch that carefully and see what inflation does. But it's going to be more about inflation in wages, inflation in ingredients and do we need to take pricing action to cover some of that. But I -- we wouldn't take a price increase just to cover a comp lap.

現在，我們知道我們的一些成分存在一些壓力。牛肉是我們經常聽到的。我們還沒有看到它，但每個人都預測供應與需求之間會有更大的差距。但我們仔細觀察並了解通貨膨脹的作用。但這將更多地與工資通脹、配料通脹有關，我們是否需要採取定價行動來彌補其中的一部分。但我——我們不會為了彌補一圈而漲價。

That makes sense. And just a clarification on the same-store sales guidance for the first quarter. I know you've talked a lot about traffic flipping positive here in January. But if we just hypothetically land in that high single-digit range for the first quarter, what do you think mix and traffic would separately be in that build if it kind of played out how you thought?

這就說得通了。並且只是對第一季度同店銷售指導的澄清。我知道您已經多次談到 1 月份這裡的交通狀況出現積極變化。但是，如果我們只是假設在第一季度進入那個高個位數範圍，那麼如果它按照您的想法發揮作用，您認為該構建中的組合和流量分別是什麼？

Yes. I mean, right now, we're running, call it, mid-single-digit positive traffic. We expect for the quarter -- that guidance range assumes that we're also going to be positive transactions more in the low single digit as we move away from Omicron. Pricing will be that 9% to 10% range that I mentioned. And then there's going to be a mix component. We think it's kind of probably be in that low maybe 2-ish, 3-ish percent, something like that. Mix is a little harder to predict, but those are the main components.

是的。我的意思是，現在，我們正在運行，稱之為中等個位數的正流量。我們預計本季度 - 該指導範圍假設我們也將在我們遠離 Omicron 時以較低的個位數進行更多的積極交易。定價將是我提到的 9% 到 10% 的範圍。然後會有一個混合組件。我們認為它可能處於那種低的可能是 2-ish，3-ish 的百分比，類似的東西。混合有點難以預測，但這些是主要組成部分。

And the next question will be from Jon Tower from Citigroup.

下一個問題將來自花旗集團的 Jon Tower。

Quick clarification on the question. On the new store productivity, I know we talked on this a little bit earlier. During the quarter, was there anything about timing where -- based on the way that we can calculate, it looks like the productivity of the stores might have been a little bit lower than the normal. And I don't know if that's related to timing or something else. That's kind of the clarification.

快速澄清問題。關於新店生產力，我知道我們早些時候討論過這個問題。在本季度，時間是否有任何問題——根據我們可以計算的方式，看起來商店的生產率可能比正常水平低一點。我不知道這是否與時間或其他因素有關。這就是澄清。

The question is then on thinking about the Garlic Guajillo Steak, it didn't live up to your expectations. Curious if you could dissect that and give us a reason as to what you might have missed. I know it hasn't been that long, but curious to know how it didn't perform versus your expectations and why you think that happened.

那麼問題是考慮大蒜瓜吉略牛排，它沒有達到您的期望。很好奇您是否可以剖析它並告訴我們您可能錯過了什麼的原因。我知道時間並沒有那麼長，但很想知道它的表現如何與您的預期不符，以及您認為發生這種情況的原因。

I'll let Jack answer the first one on the store productivity, and then I can chime in on the...

我會讓傑克回答第一個關於商店生產力的問題，然後我可以插話......

Yes. You hit the nail on the head. We opened a record 100 restaurants during the quarter, but it was very, very back-loaded. Our teams did a great job of just scratching, clawing and doing everything that they could to get the restaurants open. And I think we probably had a record opening in the month of December as well. We had more than half of the openings or in the last month of the year. So yes, you're not -- you didn't see a typical sales flow-through, considering we opened 100 restaurants.

是的。你擊中了要害。我們在本季度開設了創紀錄的 100 家餐廳，但已經非常非常落後了。我們的團隊做得很好，只是抓撓、抓撓並竭盡所能讓餐廳開張。而且我認為我們可能在 12 月份也創下了開業記錄。我們有超過一半的職位空缺或在今年的最後一個月。所以是的，考慮到我們開了 100 家餐廳，你沒有看到典型的銷售流轉。

And then on your question about Garlic Guajillo Steak. Look, I think it's one of those things where we tested it in a very different environment than when we rolled it out. And as a result, we got the check benefit, but we didn't get the transactions. And it also had the challenge of rolling over brisket, which was arguably one of our best-performing menu items that we've done to date. But we'll continue to analyze that we make sure we learn from it going forward. And that's why we use the stage-gate process so that we are always learning.

然後是關於大蒜 Guajillo 牛排的問題。看，我認為這是我們在與推出時截然不同的環境中進行測試的其中一件事。結果，我們得到了支票利益，但我們沒有得到交易。它還面臨著翻過胸肉的挑戰，這可以說是我們迄今為止做過的表現最好的菜單項之一。但我們會繼續分析，確保我們從中吸取教訓。這就是為什麼我們使用階段關卡流程，以便我們始終在學習。

And our next question will be from Sharon Zackfia from William Blair.

我們的下一個問題將來自 William Blair 的 Sharon Zackfia。

I wanted to ask a question about staffing and the lower turnover that you're seeing. Is there a way to kind of compare and contrast tenure on the frontline now versus 2019? And if we think about throughput opportunity as we enter high season, I mean, how much is the frontline because it is less experienced kind of lagging where you were in 2019 or dimensionalize kind of how much throughput opportunity is really on the table here as you have more productive frontline staff?

我想問一個關於人員配備和您所看到的較低人員流動的問題。有沒有辦法比較和對比現在和 2019 年一線的任期？而且，如果我們在進入旺季時考慮吞吐量機會，我的意思是，前線有多少，因為它在 2019 年時經驗不足，有點落後，或者衡量這裡真正擺在桌面上的吞吐量機會有多少有更有生產力的一線員工？

Yes. Look, thanks for the question on this because I think this is an important one, which is what we know is when we have our teams at model and deployed correctly with leadership present for shoulder-to-shoulder training, our restaurants perform. And that's what we saw in 2019, and that's what we anticipate occurring going forward.

是的。看，謝謝你提出這個問題，因為我認為這是一個重要的問題，這就是我們所知道的，當我們的團隊處於模型狀態並在領導層在場進行肩並肩培訓的情況下正確部署時，我們的餐廳就會表現出色。這就是我們在 2019 年看到的情況，也是我們預計未來會發生的情況。

So we know there's upside in how much throughput is -- our teams are capable of doing. And obviously, we're targeting to get those throughput numbers back to where they were in, call it, the 2019 time period. The one thing that's nice is our turnover levels have dropped. So we're getting more stability in the teams, which means they're getting more reps. So that as we walk into these higher-level or higher-volume months, they've got more reps and being deployed correctly, working together correctly to ensure that we get more throughput. And that's what we're focused on is the people that we have today, how do we get them trained, how do we get them deployed and then how do we make sure those teams stay together.

所以我們知道有多少吞吐量是有好處的——我們的團隊有能力做到。顯然，我們的目標是讓這些吞吐量數字回到他們所在的位置，稱之為 2019 年時間段。一件好事是我們的營業額水平下降了。所以我們在團隊中變得更加穩定，這意味著他們得到了更多的代表。因此，當我們進入這些更高級別或更高數量的月份時，他們有更多的代表並被正確部署，正確地協同工作以確保我們獲得更多的吞吐量。這就是我們關注的是我們今天擁有的人員，我們如何對他們進行培訓，我們如何部署他們，然後我們如何確保這些團隊團結在一起。

Yes. And Sharon, just to add, when we look at the timing position back to '19, and there's 2 factors here. One is turnover. The other one is promotion rates as well. But when your turnover slows down, people are going to be in their position longer.

是的。 Sharon 補充一下，當我們回顧 19 年的時間位置時，這裡有 2 個因素。一是營業額。另一個也是晉升率。但是當你的營業額放緩時，人們會在他們的職位上待得更久。

In -- for example, on the kitchen manager, we're very close to where we were in 2019. So the average tenure in the kitchen manager role was like 0.69, meaning it was about 8 months or so. Today, it's like 0.64. So it's like maybe 7, 7.5 months, something like that. In apprentice, we're not quite back to '19, but we're ahead of where we were a year ago, and we're in striking distance again.

在 - 例如，在廚房經理方面，我們非常接近 2019 年的水平。因此，廚房經理角色的平均任期約為 0.69，這意味著大約 8 個月左右。今天，它就像 0.64。所以大概需要 7、7.5 個月之類的時間。在學徒階段，我們還沒有完全回到 19 年，但我們已經領先於一年前的水平，而且我們再次處於驚人的距離。

So those are areas that we were seeing that our average tenure was going down during the high-turnover period of the last 1.5 years or so. But those numbers appear to just like with the turnover be stabilizing and moving back up.

因此，在過去 1.5 年左右的高流動率期間，我們看到這些領域的平均任期正在下降。但這些數字似乎與營業額一樣穩定並回升。

And the next question will be from John Ivankoe with JPMorgan.

下一個問題將來自摩根大通的 John Ivankoe。

I know you've been working on a number of different automation or technology practices in the store that could potentially reduce the demand for labor and also make you efficient and perhaps more consistent in some ways. So I was just hoping you could take a few minutes or a few seconds and just kind of talk about some of the different packages that you have, how far along they are and when you -- we actually might be able to start to see some benefit, even if it's on a limited basis at a market level.

我知道您一直在研究商店中的許多不同的自動化或技術實踐，這些實踐可能會減少對勞動力的需求，並使您更有效率，也許在某些方面更加一致。所以我只是希望你能花幾分鐘或幾秒鐘來談談你擁有的一些不同的包裹，它們有多遠以及你什麼時候 - 我們實際上可以開始看到一些受益，即使它在市場層面的基礎上是有限的。

Yes. Sure. So probably the one that's closest in is the new grill work that we've got going on, which I mentioned in my earlier remarks. It just gives our teams a tool that allows them to cook the chicken, frankly, just perfect every time and a lot faster, significantly faster. And the same thing goes for steak. And we're actually moving that from a 1-store test now to a multi-store test as we speak. So we're excited about that one.

是的。當然。所以可能最接近的是我們正在進行的新燒烤工作，我在之前的評論中提到過。它只是為我們的團隊提供了一種工具，讓他們能夠煮雞肉，坦率地說，每次都非常完美，而且速度更快，速度明顯更快。牛排也是如此。實際上，我們正在將其從現在的 1 店測試轉移到我們所說的多店測試。所以我們對此很興奮。

Obviously, we're working on an automated digital make-line, which is in partnership with Hyphen. And we'll get the first one of those into a real live prototype in our Cultivate center probably end of this quarter, early in the next quarter. So that one's a little bit further out.

顯然，我們正在與 Hyphen 合作開發自動化數字生產線。我們可能會在本季度末、下個季度初將其中的第一個變成我們 Cultivate 中心的真實現場原型。所以那個有點遠。

And then we just got rolling with a live pilot on the, what we call Chippy, which is our automated arm or robotic arm to fry chips. And -- so I have much more information on that as that goes live in the one restaurant. So I'd say the one that's probably closest in is the grill, and the ones probably furthest out probably is our digital make-line -- automated digital make-line.

然後我們就在我們稱之為 Chippy 的現場飛行員上進行了滾動，這是我們用來炸薯條的自動化手臂或機械臂。而且 - 所以我有更多關於這方面的信息，因為它會在一家餐廳上線。所以我想說，距離最近的可能是烤架，最遠的可能是我們的數字生產線——自動化數字生產線。

But all these are really promising because when you can significantly reduce cook times and then make the practice of grilling chicken and steak easier, good things happen with our culinary. And that's what we've seen in the one restaurant. People are giving us feedback that the steak and chicken taste great. Our team members are giving us feedback that they love using the new grills. And so we're more consistent with great culinary, everybody wins.

但所有這些都非常有前途，因為當你可以顯著減少烹飪時間，然後讓烤雞肉和牛排的做法變得更容易時，我們的烹飪就會發生好事。這就是我們在一家餐廳看到的情況。人們向我們反饋牛排和雞肉味道很好。我們的團隊成員向我們反饋他們喜歡使用新烤架。因此，我們與美味佳餚更加一致，每個人都贏了。

The next question will be from Dennis Geiger from UBS.

下一個問題將來自瑞銀的 Dennis Geiger。

Just first wondering if it would be possible to give the traffic mix price for the 4Q. And then the question is really about pricing -- another one on pricing. Just curious if you believe you've seen any customer resistance to pricing levels, how that's kind of shaped how you thought about the pricing that you talked about for the year. And related to that, any kind of update on value scores, the low-income customer that you spoke to last quarter, anything as it relates to shaping your view on how the business performs into a potentially tougher macro?

首先想知道是否可以給出第 4 季度的流量組合價格。然後問題實際上是關於定價的——另一個關於定價的問題。只是好奇，如果您認為您已經看到任何客戶對定價水平的抵制，那麼這會如何影響您對您今年談論的定價的看法。與此相關的是，關於價值得分的任何更新，你上個季度與低收入客戶交談過的任何事情，任何與塑造你對企業如何在一個可能更艱難的宏觀環境中表現的看法有關的事情？

Yes. Sure. So look, we really have not seen any meaningful resistance to our pricing, especially as it relates to our in-store experience. Obviously, the delivery channel was down, but I think that's a function of a couple of things. One, you do have to pay a premium for that occasion, combined with that the in-store experience is back and people are back out and about. So potentially, they see the convenience, the customization of coming in the restaurant and getting it on kind of their control terms.

是的。當然。所以看，我們真的沒有看到對我們的定價有任何有意義的阻力，特別是因為它與我們的店內體驗有關。顯然，交付渠道出現故障，但我認為這是多方面原因造成的。第一，你確實必須為那個場合支付額外費用，再加上店內體驗又回來了，人們又回來了。因此，潛在地，他們看到了進入餐廳並按照他們的控制條款獲得的便利和定制。

We continue to see the higher-income consumer, the individual that earns over $100,000, coming more often. And frankly, I think the same thing would have happened with the low-income consumer regardless of what the pricing was that we acted on. And we made the decision not to go chasing people with discounts. That's not what our brand is, and that's not what we're going to do. We're better off winning the value gain through great culinary, great speed/convenience, terrific customization, and we know that continues to resonate. Our value scores continue to be really strong. If you look at people that I would say are comparable that are in the fast-casual category, we're still at 10% to 30% discount.

我們繼續看到高收入消費者，即收入超過 100,000 美元的人，越來越頻繁地來到這裡。坦率地說，我認為無論我們採取何種定價，低收入消費者都會發生同樣的事情。我們決定不去追打折扣的人。那不是我們的品牌，也不是我們要做的。我們最好通過美味的烹飪、極快的速度/便利性、極好的定制來贏得價值收益，我們知道這會繼續引起共鳴。我們的價值得分仍然非常高。如果你看看那些我認為屬於快速休閒類別的可比產品，我們仍然有 10% 到 30% 的折扣。

So look, I think we've made a lot of really good moves to kind of move with the challenges that we've had to deal with. And as a result, I think we're seeing stronger operations, stronger teams. And we're seeing, I think, that work come out to bear in January and where we are here in February.

所以看，我認為我們已經採取了很多非常好的舉措來應對我們必須應對的挑戰。結果，我認為我們看到了更強大的運營、更強大的團隊。我認為，我們正在看到這項工作在 1 月份和 2 月份的情況下取得了成果。

So Jack, I don't know if there's anything to add to that.

所以傑克，我不知道是否還有什麼要補充的。

No. I think you said that perfectly, Brian. And just -- I think you were looking for the components in the quarter. The components of our pricing was about 13.5%. Transactions were down about 4%, mix was down about 3%. So that gets you to an underlying comp about 6.5%. And then we had the journal entry that deals with breakage, and that was 80 basis points. So that gets you to the 5.6% comp.

不，我認為你說得很完美，布賴恩。而且 - 我認為你正在尋找本季度的組件。我們定價的組成部分約為 13.5%。交易量下降約 4%，組合下降約 3%。這樣你就可以得到大約 6.5% 的基礎補償。然後我們有了處理破損的分錄，那是 80 個基點。這樣你就可以獲得 5.6% 的補償。

And our next question is from Jeffrey Bernstein with Barclays.

我們的下一個問題來自巴克萊銀行的杰弗裡伯恩斯坦。

First question is just on the restaurant margin. For full year '22, you ended in that 24% range. So you talked about maybe some headwinds in the fourth quarter that brought that in below expectation. Just wondering if you can give any specific thoughts as you look to full year '23. I know you gave some color specific to the first quarter. But as you think about the environment going forward, your pricing perhaps rolling off by the end of the year and what you know today based on kind of the key cost pressures, I'm just wondering your thoughts on the full year '23, whether it's reasonable to assume a return to 25%-plus in '23 or beyond? I know you mentioned getting to more like 27% when you hit the $3 million, but just wondering kind of on the interim, what you're thinking specifically to '23?

第一個問題只是關於餐廳利潤。對於 22 年全年，您在 24% 的範圍內結束。因此，您談到了第四季度可能出現的一些不利因素導致其低於預期。只是想知道您是否可以在展望 23 年全年時給出任何具體想法。我知道你給了第一季度一些特定的顏色。但是當你考慮未來的環境時，你的定價可能會在年底前下降，以及你今天基於某種關鍵成本壓力所知道的，我只是想知道你對 23 年全年的看法，是否假設 23 年或以後的回報率達到 25% 以上是合理的嗎？我知道你提到過當你達到 300 萬美元時達到 27%，但只是想知道在此期間，你對 23 年的具體想法是什麼？

Yes. I mean it's so hard. And the reason we gave some color on the first quarter but not beyond that is we don't know what's going to happen in the economy. We think inflation will be reasonably tame. Hopefully, that will come true. And we don't -- we haven't made any decisions on pricing action right now.

是的。我是說這太難了。我們對第一季度給出一些顏色但不超出此範圍的原因是我們不知道經濟會發生什麼。我們認為通脹將相當溫和。希望這會成真。而且我們沒有——我們現在還沒有就定價行動做出任何決定。

So Jeff, the way I would think about it is we're going to kind of let the year play out. We're going to do everything we can in terms of managing the supply chain, managing as we recruit people. We've got to pave the way just to make sure that we gear up for burrito season. We'll watch how the inflation element plays out. And we don't have any plans right now to take pricing action. So we might be more patient this year than we were last year. Last year, the inflation kept coming at us, and now we can see more ahead. And we take pricing action, we see even more ahead. It doesn't feel like it's at that fever pitch. So I think you could see us be more patient this year.

所以傑夫，我的想法是我們會讓這一年結束。我們將盡一切努力管理供應鏈，在招聘人員時進行管理。我們必須鋪平道路，以確保我們為墨西哥捲餅季節做好準備。我們將觀察通貨膨脹因素如何發揮作用。而且我們現在沒有任何採取定價行動的計劃。所以今年我們可能比去年更有耐心。去年，通貨膨脹不斷向我們襲來，現在我們可以看到更多的未來。我們採取定價行動，我們看到更多。感覺不像是在那種狂熱的程度。所以我認為今年你會看到我們更有耐心。

What I can tell you is when things do normalize, whether that's later this year or end of 2024, we absolutely have at these kind of volumes the ability to get a margin up into that 25% range on a sustainable basis, and then it will grow from there. I just don't want to make any promises on a quarter-by-quarter basis. Just because so many things have happened in the last several quarters, it's hard to predict what's going to happen. But I do know that our model is intact.

我可以告訴你的是，當事情恢復正常時，無論是今年晚些時候還是 2024 年底，我們絕對有能力在可持續的基礎上將利潤率提高到 25% 的範圍內，然後它將從那裡成長。我只是不想按季度做出任何承諾。僅僅因為過去幾個季度發生了太多事情，所以很難預測會發生什麼。但我知道我們的模型完好無損。

Understood. And then just following up on a couple of bigger-picture topics. I think, Brian, you mentioned that international growth is going to be at, I think you said a measured pace. I'm wondering if the headwinds, to your point about the economy in Western Europe perhaps, is the primary reason why it's measured or maybe there are other causes for concern. Anything around that international acceleration and when the timing of that might be would be great.

明白了。然後只是跟進幾個更大的主題。我認為，布賴恩，你提到國際增長將以，我認為你說的是有節制的步伐。我想知道逆風，就你關於西歐經濟的觀點而言，是否是對其進行衡量的主要原因，或者是否還有其他令人擔憂的原因。圍繞國際加速的任何事情以及可能的時機都會很棒。

Yes. Sure. So obviously, Canada, it's full steam ahead, right? We're opening, I think, the most restaurants we've ever opened from a percentage standpoint and probably absolute standpoint ever in Canada, which is really exciting. And those economics continue to perform really well.

是的。當然。很明顯，加拿大正在全速前進，對吧？我認為，從百分比的角度和可能是加拿大有史以來的絕對角度來看，我們正在開設最多的餐廳，這真的很令人興奮。這些經濟學繼續表現得非常好。

When you look at Europe, look, the top line is really performing. And frankly, we've been much more patient on pricing there because we want to make sure that people have the experiences with Chipotle. So there's a lot of inflation that we're still dealing with in Europe.

當你看看歐洲時，你看，頂線確實表現出色。坦率地說，我們對那裡的定價更加耐心，因為我們想確保人們對 Chipotle 有體驗。因此，我們仍在歐洲應對大量通貨膨脹。

But look, we like what we're seeing. The good news is feedback on the experience is very, very positive. Feedback on the culinary is very positive. And the most recent restaurants that we've opened are performing really well. So we're just taking our time with it because, unfortunately, the last 3 years have not been normal in any way. So we just want to make sure we aren't getting any false positives or false negatives on any part of the business.

但是看，我們喜歡我們所看到的。好消息是對體驗的反饋非常非常積極。對烹飪的反饋非常積極。我們最近開設的餐廳表現非常好。所以我們只是慢慢來，因為不幸的是，過去 3 年在任何方面都不正常。所以我們只是想確保我們不會在業務的任何部分得到任何誤報或漏報。

So the good news is we've got a tremendous growth runway in the United States that we can be very patient with how we approach our international expansion. But the early signs are people like burritos and bowls, and they like our culinary and they like the convenience, and they like the speed. So that's a recipe for a lot of opportunity down the road.

所以好消息是我們在美國有一條巨大的增長跑道，我們可以非常耐心地對待我們如何進行國際擴張。但早期的跡像是人們喜歡墨西哥捲餅和碗，他們喜歡我們的烹飪，他們喜歡方便，他們喜歡速度。所以這是未來很多機會的秘訣。

And the next question is from Danilo Gargiulo with Bernstein.

下一個問題來自 Danilo Gargiulo 和 Bernstein。

So if I understand correctly, the traffic improvement you're seeing seems to be stemming primarily from productivity and operational improvements also as you're moving along in 2023. But I'm wondering your expectations on the demand side from consumers and in particular whether you're seeing or expecting any trends that could be possibly offsetting the productivity and operational improvements as we are moving along in 2023?

因此，如果我理解正確的話，您所看到的流量改善似乎主要源於生產力和運營改善，以及您在 2023 年的進展。但我想知道您對消費者需求方面的期望，特別是是否隨著我們在 2023 年的前進，您是否看到或期待任何可能抵消生產力和運營改進的趨勢？

No. Look, the consumer demand, especially if we use kind of our in-store experience right now, looks to be there. Especially as you look at the higher-income consumer, their purchase frequency has actually gone up. So we fundamentally believe the better we operate, the better our performance will be. And that's why we've got -- Scott and the team have a full court press, frankly, on great people, great culinary. If we do those 2 things against our operating standards, we believe we'll continue to make progress on throughput, and we'll continue to see the gains that hopefully we've experienced in the first part of this quarter.

不，看，消費者需求，尤其是如果我們現在使用我們的店內體驗，看起來就在那裡。特別是當你觀察高收入消費者時，他們的購買頻率實際上已經上升了。因此，我們從根本上相信，我們經營得越好，我們的業績就會越好。這就是為什麼我們有 - 斯科特和他的團隊有一個完整的法庭新聞，坦率地說，關於偉大的人，偉大的烹飪。如果我們按照我們的運營標準做這兩件事，我們相信我們將繼續在吞吐量方面取得進展，並且我們將繼續看到希望我們在本季度第一部分獲得的收益。

And I think you also mentioned there are some positive signs that are emerging from Project Square One. I was wondering if you can elaborate on that one and maybe like share a couple of metrics where you're particularly proud of.

我想你也提到了 Project Square One 出現了一些積極的跡象。我想知道您是否可以詳細說明這一點，也許可以分享一些您特別引以為豪的指標。

Yes. Look, I mentioned this earlier. Obviously, one of the things that we've seen is a lot less incidents of menu deactivations. So when you go to order online, all of the products are available, chips, guac, chicken, steak. That has dramatically decreased. And we know that's a big deal because when you order online, if you don't have what you want available, your conversion rate goes down.

是的。看，我之前提到過這個。顯然，我們看到的其中一件事是菜單停用事件大大減少。所以當你去網上訂購時，所有的產品都可以買到，薯條、鱷梨醬、雞肉、牛排。這已經大大減少了。我們知道這很重要，因為當您在線訂購時，如果沒有您想要的商品，您的轉化率就會下降。

And so we've seen when we have the product in stock, our conversion rate gets back to where it should be. We've also seen a huge step up in our on-time -- percentage on time in a meaningful way. And then we've also already seen some progress on throughput, albeit small movement, but I think that has more to do with the time of the year than a testament to the impact of Project Square One.

所以我們已經看到，當我們有庫存時，我們的轉化率會回到應有的水平。我們還看到我們的準時率有了很大的提高——以一種有意義的方式提高了準時率。然後我們也已經看到了吞吐量方面的一些進展，儘管變化很小，但我認為這更多地與一年中的時間有關，而不是對 Project Square One 影響的證明。

What I also think is also really great news is we have more stability in our teams than we've had in over 2 years. And we've got more teams at-model with less turnover. And I think Scott's got these teams focused on deploying correctly and getting trained shoulder-to-shoulder so that they're ready to go when the rush shows up.

我還認為也是一個非常好的消息，我們的團隊比過去 2 年更穩定。而且我們有更多的模型團隊，人員流動更少。而且我認為斯科特讓這些團隊專注於正確部署並接受並肩訓練，以便他們在緊急情況出現時做好準備。

And our final question today will be from Brian Harbour from Morgan Stanley.

我們今天的最後一個問題將來自摩根士丹利的布賴恩港。

Maybe first just a question on delivery. Are you able to see in your data that those customers have shifted to coming into the stores or mobile order-ahead? Or do you think those customers have basically fallen off as you've seen that business decline a little bit?

也許首先只是一個關於交貨的問題。您是否能夠在您的數據中看到這些客戶已經轉向進入商店或移動提前訂購？或者您是否認為這些客戶已經基本減少，因為您已經看到業務有所下滑？

What it looks like to us is we've definitely seen people make a shift in restaurant and then some shift to order-ahead. That's probably been the biggest trend that we've seen. Obviously, the premium, especially when you operate in our white-label execution, is one of those places where you can quickly compare like what's the difference between ordering delivery versus ordering pickup. And that's an obvious one where I think we've seen, as a result, people they toggle between the 2 and then they choose order-ahead.

在我們看來，我們肯定已經看到人們在餐廳發生了轉變，然後又轉向了提前點餐。這可能是我們見過的最大趨勢。顯然，溢價，尤其是當你在我們的白標執行中運作時，是你可以快速比較的地方之一，比如訂購送貨和訂購取貨之間的區別。這是一個明顯的問題，我認為我們已經看到，結果，人們在兩者之間切換，然後他們選擇提前訂購。

So yes, we've seen people stay committed to the idea of getting Chipotle. I'm sure there are those customers where if something's free somewhere else for delivery, they might take advantage of a freebie. But look, we're not interested in renting or borrowing customers. We want people to be a part of the Chipotle business because the value proposition is right for them, they buy into the food that we provide, the culinary that we provide at the convenience and speed at which we provide it. So that's been a conscious choice, and I think it's going to serve us well in the long run.

所以是的，我們已經看到人們一直致力於獲得 Chipotle 的想法。我敢肯定，有些客戶如果在其他地方可以免費送貨，他們可能會利用免費贈品。但是你看，我們對出租或借用客戶不感興趣。我們希望人們成為 Chipotle 業務的一部分，因為價值主張對他們來說是正確的，他們購買我們提供的食物，我們以我們提供的便利和速度提供的烹飪。所以這是一個有意識的選擇，我認為從長遠來看這對我們有好處。

Okay. And maybe just a related question on kind of some of the new perks that you rolled out, the Freepotle that you launched in January. I mean, is it your view that, that drives kind of a step up in frequency? Or how else do you think it will affect customer behavior? Is there any margin impact of that? And then I guess, also you -- it sounds like you've seen kind of mobile ordering stabilize, but do you want that to grow as you go into the next couple of years? And do you think this can kind of be a catalyst for that?

好的。也許只是一個關於你推出的一些新福利的相關問題，你在 1 月份推出的 Freepotle。我的意思是，您是否認為這推動了頻率的提高？或者您認為它還會如何影響客戶行為？這對保證金有什麼影響嗎？然後我想，你也是 - 聽起來你已經看到某種移動訂購穩定下來，但你希望它在未來幾年內增長嗎？你認為這可以成為一種催化劑嗎？

Yes. Look, it's doing 2 things. One, it's hopefully keeping more people engaged in the loyalty program. We're only, what, one month in on it and then also acquiring more people into the rewards program. And so it looks really promising that it's doing exactly what we want it to do. But again, it's only one month in. And what was your -- second part of your question?

是的。看，它在做兩件事。第一，它希望讓更多的人參與忠誠度計劃。我們只做了一個月，然後還吸引了更多人加入獎勵計劃。所以它看起來真的很有前途，它正在做我們想要它做的事情。但同樣，只有一個月了。你的問題的第二部分是什麼？

Just if you think that that's kind of the next catalyst for driving greater, more order penetration.

只要你認為這是推動更大、更多訂單滲透的下一個催化劑。

Yes. Look, what we definitely know is when people are engaged in our Rewards program, we get more purchase frequency out of them. And the most engaged people come through our digital business when it comes to our rewards program. So I do think the combination of high engagement with rewards, specifically around the amount of personalization that we're doing here, will result in more frequency out of customers down the road. And usually, that comes via a digital experience is where you see more of the impact from the Rewards program.

是的。看，我們肯定知道的是，當人們參與我們的獎勵計劃時，我們會從他們那裡獲得更多的購買頻率。當涉及到我們的獎勵計劃時，參與度最高的人來自我們的數字業務。所以我確實認為高參與度與獎勵的結合，特別是圍繞我們在這裡所做的個性化數量，將導致客戶在未來的頻率更高。通常，通過數字體驗，您會看到更多來自獎勵計劃的影響。

Ladies and gentlemen, this concludes our question-and-answer session. I would like to turn the conference back over to Brian Niccol for any closing remarks.

女士們，先生們，我們的問答環節到此結束。我想將會議轉回給 Brian Niccol 作閉幕詞。

Okay. Thanks. And thanks, everybody, for all the questions and being a part of the call. Obviously, 2022 was another one of these years where a lot of unexpected things occurred. But I do think, once again, we've demonstrated the resiliency of Chipotle and the power of our Food with Integrity purpose combined with the culinary and convenience that we provide.

好的。謝謝。感謝大家提出所有問題並參與電話會議。顯然，2022 年是又一個發生了很多意想不到的事情的年份。但我確實認為，我們再一次展示了 Chipotle 的彈性和我們 Food with Integrity 宗旨的力量，以及我們提供的烹飪和便利。

Again, we were able to expand our AUVs, our margins. We had a record number of store openings in the fourth quarter. And we're optimistic about where the business is today because of the focus on great operational execution, combined with great culinary and great people. And you're going to continue to see us stay focused on executing those basics while we continue to execute against the other strategies to make the brand more visible, loved and hopefully engaged with. So off to a good start in 2023, and we're optimistic about our growth runway going forward.

同樣，我們能夠擴大我們的 AUV，即我們的利潤率。我們在第四季度的新店數量創下了歷史新高。我們對今天的業務持樂觀態度，因為專注於出色的運營執行力，加上出色的烹飪和優秀的人才。你會繼續看到我們繼續專注於執行這些基礎知識，同時我們繼續執行其他策略，以使品牌更引人注目、更受喜愛並更有希望參與其中。因此，2023 年有了一個良好的開端，我們對未來的增長跑道持樂觀態度。

So thanks, everybody, for being a part of the call. And we'll talk to you soon, I'm sure. Take care. Bye.

所以，謝謝大家參與電話會議。我們很快就會和你談談，我敢肯定。小心。再見。

The conference has now concluded. Thank you for attending today's presentation. You may now disconnect.

會議現已結束。感謝您參加今天的演講。您現在可以斷開連接。