芝加哥商業交易所 (CME) 2024 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Welcome to the CME Group fourth-quarter 2024 earnings call. (Operator Instructions)

歡迎參加芝商所集團 2024 年第四季財報電話會議。（操作員指令）

I would now like to turn the call over to Adam Minick. Sir, please go ahead.

現在我想將電話轉給亞當米尼克 (Adam Minick)。先生，請說。

Good morning, and I hope you're all doing well today. We released our executive commentary earlier this morning, which provides extensive details on the fourth-quarter 2024, which we will be discussing on this call.

早上好，祝大家今天一切順利。我們今天早上發布了高管評論，其中提供了有關 2024 年第四季度的詳細信息，我們將在本次電話會議上討論。

I'll start with the Safe Harbor language, and then I'll turn it over to Terry. Statements made on this call and in the other reference documents on our website that are not historical facts are forward-looking statements. These statements are not guarantees of future performance. They involve risks, uncertainties, and assumptions that are difficult to predict. Therefore, actual results and outcomes may differ materially from what is expressed or implied in any statement.

我將從安全港語言開始，然後將其交給特里。本次電話會議中以及我們網站上其他參考文件中所作的非歷史事實的陳述均為前瞻性陳述。這些聲明並不能保證未來的表現。它們涉及難以預測的風險、不確定性和假設。因此，實際結果和成果可能與任何聲明中表達或暗示的內容有重大差異。

Detailed information about factors that may affect our performance can be found in the filings with the SEC, which are on our website. Lastly, in the earnings release, you will see a reconciliation between GAAP and non-GAAP measures following the financial statements.

有關可能影響我們業績的因素的詳細信息，請參閱我們網站上提交給美國證券交易委員會 (SEC) 的文件。最後，在收益報告中，您將看到財務報表之後的 GAAP 和非 GAAP 指標之間的對帳。

With that, I'll turn the call over to Terry.

說完這些，我會把電話轉給特里。

Thanks, Adam, and thank you all for joining us this morning. I'm going to make a few brief comments about our record year in 2024 and some thoughts on the current business environment. Following that, Lynne will provide an overview of our financial results and our 2025 guidance. In addition to Lynne, we have other members of our management team present to answer questions after the prepared remarks.

謝謝，亞當，也謝謝大家今天早上加入我們。我將對我們 2024 年創紀錄的一年以及對當前商業環境的一些看法發表一些簡短的評論。隨後，Lynne 將概述我們的財務表現和 2025 年指引。除了 Lynne 之外，我們還有其他管理團隊成員出席，在準備好的演講後回答問題。

2024 was the best year in CME Group's history, and our fourth consecutive year of record volume with average daily volume increasing 9% to 26.9 million contracts. This growth was broad-based with volume increasing year over year in all six asset classes, including all-time volume records in our interest rate, foreign exchange, metals and agricultural complexes. It was also a record year for our international business, which averaged 7.8 million contracts per day are up 14% from the previous record set in 2023.

2024年是芝商所史上最好的一年，也是我們連續第四年創下交易量紀錄，每日平均交易量成長 9%，達到 2,690 萬份合約。這種成長具有廣泛的基礎，所有六種資產類別的交易量都較去年同期成長，其中利率、外匯、金屬和農業綜合體的交易量均創下歷史新高。這也是我們國際業務創紀錄的一年，平均每天簽訂 780 萬份合同，比 2023 年創下的紀錄增長了 14%。

In addition to our impressive volume results, we continue to provide unmatched capital efficiencies for our customers. We have previously discussed that within our interest rates alone, the breadth of our offering results in margin savings in excess of $20 billion per day for our clients.

除了令人印象深刻的銷售表現外，我們還繼續為客戶提供無與倫比的資本效率。我們之前曾討論過，僅在我們的利率範圍內，我們提供的服務範圍就為我們的客戶每天節省了超過 200 億美元的保證金。

It is worth noting that this margin savings applies across all the asset classes we clear. As you may have seen in the commentary we released this morning, our customers are now saving approximately $60 billion per day across all six asset classes.

值得注意的是，此保證金節省適用於我們清算的所有資產類別。正如您可能在我們今天早上發布的評論中看到的，我們的客戶現在在所有六種資產類別中每天節省約 600 億美元。

Commodities were the third fastest-growing asset class in 2024 with Metals volume up 23%, Energy up 17% and Ags up 13%. These businesses combined to generate a record $1.7 billion in revenue in 2024, up 16% versus 2023 and are off to another great start in 2025. Commodities growth came from every customer segment, led by the buy side. where we've seen significant increases in activity by global multi-strategy hedge funds as they expand in commodity-focused strategies.

大宗商品是 2024 年成長第三快的資產類別，其中金屬交易量成長 23%，能源成長 17%，農產品成長 13%。這些業務合計在 2024 年創造了 17 億美元的創紀錄收入，較 2023 年增長 16%，並將在 2025 年再次迎來良好開端。大宗商品的成長源自於每個顧客群，以買方為主導。隨著全球多策略對沖基金在以大宗商品為中心的策略方面的擴張，我們看到其活動顯著增加。

Geographically, the fastest-growing growth came from EMEA, where our year-over-year volume was up 34% across the commodities business. Commodity options also demonstrated strong growth with volumes up 29% versus 2023.

從地理上看，成長最快的是歐洲、中東和非洲地區，該地區大宗商品業務的銷量較去年同期成長了 34%。大宗商品選擇權也表現出強勁成長，交易量較 2023 年成長了 29%。

Our growth has been driven by strong new client acquisition across both institutional and retail sectors. I've said many times in recent years that it's going to become more and more difficult to distinguish between retail and institutional trading behaviors. Technology is equalizing the access to data and improving the flow of information. This is bringing a new type of trader into our markets, and we'll continue to grow the overall financial system.

我們的成長得益於機構和零售領域強勁的新客戶獲取。近年來我多次說過，區分零售和機構交易行為將變得越來越困難。技術正在使數據存取更加平等並改善資訊流。這將為我們的市場帶來一種新型交易者，我們將繼續發展整個金融體系。

Over the last year, several large retail broker partners have joined our markets to meet this customer demand. As discussed throughout this year, we have increased our allocation of expenses to marketing and education of potential new clients.

去年，幾家大型零售經紀合作夥伴加入了我們的市場，以滿足客戶的需求。正如今年所討論的那樣，我們增加了對潛在新客戶的營銷和教育費用的分配。

Given the strong financial results, we further increased this investment during Q4. In total, new clients added in the last five years have generated approximately $1 billion of revenue, including approximately 5% of transaction and clearing revenue in 2024.

鑑於強勁的財務業績，我們在第四季度進一步增加了這項投資。總體而言，過去五年新增客戶創造了約 10 億美元的收入，其中包括 2024 年約 5% 的交易和清算收入。

Moving into 2025, we continue to see strong volumes to start the year with new volume records in January and ongoing customer needs through efficient trading and hedging solutions. Shipping views around the global economy, persistent inflation potential for changes in tariffs, and ongoing geopolitical tensions all contribute to potential market movement and the need for effective risk management, which we will continue to provide to our clients.

進入 2025 年，我們將繼續看到年初交易量的強勁增長，1 月份的交易量創下新高，並且透過高效的交易和對沖解決方案滿足客戶持續的需求。對全球經濟的航運觀點、關稅變化導致的持續通膨潛力以及持續的地緣政治緊張局勢均導致了潛在的市場波動和有效風險管理的需要，我們將繼續為客戶提供此類服務。

In addition to the impressive volume results I've outlined, we delivered record financial results. With that, I'll turn the call over to Lynne to review these results in more detail.

除了我所概述的令人印象深刻的銷售業績之外，我們還取得了創紀錄的財務表現。說完這些，我將把電話轉給 Lynne，讓她更詳細地審查這些結果。

Thanks, Terry, and thank you all for joining us this morning. As Terry mentioned, we had very strong financial results, delivering our third consecutive year of record revenues and earnings in 2024. Our revenue of $6.1 billion grew 10% compared to 2023 and included all-time revenue records in all six of our asset classes.

謝謝，特里，謝謝大家今天早上加入我們。正如特里所提到的，我們的財務表現非常強勁，2024 年連續第三年創下創紀錄的收入和收益。我們的營收為 61 億美元，與 2023 年相比成長了 10%，並創下了我們所有六種資產類別的歷史收入記錄。

Our annual adjusted expenses, excluding license fees were approximately $1.59 billion, including $85 million related to our cloud migration. Our adjusted operating margin for the year expanded to 68.3%, up over 140 basis points from 2023. We delivered $3.7 billion in adjusted net income, resulting in 10% earnings per share growth for the year.

我們年度調整後的支出（不包括許可費）約為 15.9 億美元，其中包括與雲端遷移相關的 8,500 萬美元。我們今年的調整後營業利潤率擴大至 68.3%，較 2023 年上升超過 140 個基點。我們實現調整後淨收入 37 億美元，全年每股收益成長 10%。

During the fourth quarter, CME Group generated more than $1.5 billion in revenue, a 6% increase from Q4 2023 on similar volumes. Market data revenue grew 9% from last year to $182 million. Expenses were very carefully managed and on an adjusted basis, were $520 million for the quarter, and $436 million excluding license fees.

第四季度，芝商所集團營收超過 15 億美元，較 2023 年第四季同等規模成長 6%。市場數據收入比去年增長9%，達1.82億美元。費用管理非常謹慎，經調整後，本季費用為 5.2 億美元，不含許可費為 4.36 億美元。

CME Group had an adjusted effective tax rate of 21.8%, which resulted in adjusted net income of $919 million. Our adjusted earnings per share were $2.52, up 6% from the fourth quarter last year. Capital expenditures for the fourth quarter were approximately $28 million and cash at the end of the year was $3.1 billion. CME Group declared dividends during 2024 approximately $3.8 billion, including the annual variable dividend of $2.1 billion, which was paid in January.

芝商所集團調整後有效稅率為 21.8%，調整後淨收入為 9.19 億美元。我們的調整後每股收益為 2.52 美元，較去年第四季成長 6%。第四季的資本支出約為2800萬美元，年末現金為31億美元。芝商所宣布 2024 年股息約 38 億美元，其中包括 1 月支付的 21 億美元年度浮動股息。

Turning to 2025 guidance. We expect total adjusted operating expenses, excluding license fees, but including cloud migration expenses to be approximately $1.65 billion. Total capital expenditures are expected to be approximately $90 million, and the adjusted effective tax rate should come in between 22.5% and 23.5%.

轉向2025年指導。我們預計調整後的總營運費用（不包括授權費，但包括雲端遷移費用）約為 16.5 億美元。預計總資本支出約為 9,000 萬美元，調整後的有效稅率應在 22.5% 至 23.5% 之間。

In December, we announced transaction fee adjustments, which became effective February 1. Assuming similar trading patterns as 2024, the fee adjustments would increase futures and options transaction revenue by approximately 1% to 1.5%.

12 月，我們宣布了交易費用調整，該調整於 2 月 1 日起生效。假設交易模式與 2024 年類似，費用調整將使期貨和選擇權交易收入增加約 1% 至 1.5%。

Market data fees were increased by 3.5% at the beginning of the year. Additionally, we announced a 10 basis point non-cash collateral surcharge effective in April for participants that do not post at least 30% of their margin requirement in cash.

年初市場數據費用增加了3.5%。此外，我們宣布，對於未以現金形式繳納保證金要求至少 30% 的參與者，將從 4 月起徵​​收 10 個基點的非現金抵押附加費。

This change will ensure a minimum level of cash for risk management purposes. The financial impact of this requirement will be dependent on customer decisions and may result in an increased average rate on non-cash collateral or an increase in cash posted at the clearing house.

這項變更將確保風險管理所需的最低現金水準。此要求的財務影響將取決於客戶的決定，並可能導致非現金抵押品的平均利率上升或清算所的現金增加。

As always, we focused on the total cost of trade for our clients and considered the impact of the collateral fee changes when reviewing adjustments to the clearing and transaction fees this year. In aggregate, the fee changes in cash minimum could add 2% to 2.5% to pre-tax income, assuming similar volume and collateral levels.

與往常一樣，在審查今年清算和交易費用的調整時，我們重點關注客戶的交易總成本，並考慮了抵押費用變化的影響。總體而言，假設交易量和抵押品水準相似，現金最低費用的變化可能會使稅前收入增加 2% 至 2.5%。

In summary, we're very proud of the results we were able to deliver at the firm this year, driving 10% revenue growth and 10% adjusted earnings growth from our previous record year of 2023. Consistent with the growth goal we discussed coming out of 2022, this year represented our third consecutive year of double-digit earnings growth.

總而言之，我們對公司今年的業績感到非常自豪，與之前創紀錄的 2023 年相比，收入增長了 10%，調整後收益增長了 10%。與我們討論的 2022 年成長目標一致，今年是我們連續第三年實現兩位數的獲利成長。

We'd now like to open up the call for your questions.

我們現在願意開始回答你們的提問。

(Operator Instructions) Patrick Moley, Piper Sandler.

（操作員指示）Patrick Moley，Piper Sandler。

Thanks for taking the question. In the release today, you mentioned that retail remains a bedrock of the new customer acquisition strategy. You're currently in the process of rolling out futures to Robinhood's 24 million customers.

感謝您回答這個問題。在今天的發表會上，您提到零售仍然是新客戶獲取策略的基石。您目前正在向 Robinhood 的 2,400 萬客戶推出期貨。

So I know it's still pretty early, but I was hoping you could talk about maybe how additive do you think that this rollout could be to volumes this year? And then if you could just maybe speak to the broader retail strategy and any other opportunities that you see out there on the horizon?

所以我知道現在還為時過早，但我希望您可以談談，您認為此次推出的產品對今年的銷售會有多大幫助？然後，您是否可以談談更廣泛的零售策略以及您看到的任何其他未來機會？

Thanks, Patrick. Let me turn it over to Julie Winkler, if you can discuss a little bit above that, and I'm going to chime in after she's done.

謝謝，派崔克。讓我把這個時間交給朱莉溫克勒 (Julie Winkler)，如果你能就此進行一些討論，我會在她說完之後加入討論。

Sure. Thanks for the question, Patrick. On the new client acquisition front, about two-thirds of that $1 billion number that Terry referenced in his comments, are driven by our retail business. Q4 was another really strong quarter for us in terms of total participation being up, the number of traders being up 6%, and that NCA number was up another 23% year on year.

當然。謝謝你的提問，派崔克。在新客戶獲取方面，Terry 在評論中提到的 10 億美元中約有三分之二是由我們的零售業務推動的。就總參與人數增加、交易員數量增加 6% 以及 NCA 數量同比增加 23% 而言，第四季度對我們來說又是一個非常強勁的一個季度。

All regions, we saw growth there as well, and that was great because we saw that really also across all of our asset classes with kind of FX and metals, certainly leading the charge there. The [micros] volume is in product, I think, has continued to be a sweet spot for us in our retail business. So that volume was up 2.8 million contracts and ADV in Q4, so that was up 11%.

我們在所有地區都看到了成長，這很好，因為我們看到所有資產類別都出現了成長，其中外匯和金屬無疑處於領先地位。我認為，微量元素的產品數量一直是我們零售業務的最佳選擇。因此第四季的交易量增加了 280 萬份合約，每日平均交易量增加了 11%。

And what this all has meant, and you referenced it, is we've been working with many new futures brokers over the last year. I think their interest in coming into this space is that sophistication of trader that Terry mentioned earlier. A lot of this is about reaching this customer base with education and growing awareness.

正如您所說，這一切意味著我們在過去的一年裡一直與許多新的期貨經紀人合作。我認為他們進入這個領域的興趣在於特里之前提到的交易者的成熟度。其中很大一部分是透過教育和提高意識來接觸這個客戶群。

And what is also appealing is our very diversified product offering. So while we have the micro equity suite, we are also seeing a lot of uptake in crypto and commodities as well, which is great.

同樣吸引人的是我們提供的產品種類繁多。因此，雖然我們擁有微型股權套件，但我們也看到加密貨幣和商品的大量成長，這很好。

Robinhood did launch a couple of weeks ago. They are continuing to do a phased rollout among their customer base. So very similar to what we've seen with other broker partners as they enter into the space. We're excited about that and certainly opportunity to work with all of these global partners. We have about 100 that we partner with around the globe, and we do have some other additional ones coming online as we look ahead into 2025.

Robinhood 確實在幾週前推出了。他們正在繼續在客戶群中分階段推出這項服務。這與我們看到的其他經紀合作夥伴進入該領域的情況非常相似。我們對此感到非常興奮，當然也很高興有機會與所有這些全球合作夥伴合作。我們在全球範圍內與約 100 個合作夥伴合作，展望 2025 年，我們還將有一些其他合作夥伴上線。

And I think the other kind of context around this is just this retail business is also a huge contributor to that international performance as well. And so, as we see retail grow that is a big contributor to those international results with the 7.8 million in ADV, which was up another 13%.

我認為，與此相關的另一個背景是，零售業務也是國際績效的巨大貢獻者。因此，我們看到零售額成長，這對國際業績貢獻很大，日均銷售額達到 780 萬，又成長了 13%。

So we're excited with our diverse product offering, the global appeal of our products and certainly being able to partner with these great broker partners and providing education and awareness. So we feel like the outlook is good.

因此，我們對我們多樣化的產品供應、我們產品的全球吸引力感到非常興奮，並且能夠與這些優秀的經紀夥伴合作並提供教育和宣傳。因此我們覺得前景良好。

So Patrick, what I would just add to what Julie said, is that I think, as I said earlier, the lines between institutional and retail are continuing to get more and more blurred. We're referring to our current -- our current retail business, which is more of a professional style trader I think the definition of that retail participant is going to continue to evolve over the next several years, and we might be saying something a lot different about what a retail participant looks like.

所以派崔克，我想補充朱莉所說的話，我認為，正如我之前所說，機構和零售之間的界線正在變得越來越模糊。我們指的是我們目前的零售業務，更像是專業風格的交易員，我認為零售參與者的定義將在未來幾年繼續演變，我們可能會對零售參與者的定義有很大不同。

So to say what it could look like just at one particular broker or another may not be fair. How they access markets, the ease of accessing markets, the new risk management tools, that technology and artificial intelligence will allow us to deploy, will help us broaden the scope what we define as retail today, tomorrow. So that's what's more exciting to me than just at current retail trade, even though it's an exciting business. I think that's going to continue to evolve and be defined in different ways in the upcoming years.

因此，僅僅說某個特定的經紀人會是什麼樣子可能並不公平。他們如何進入市場、進入市場的便利性、新的風險管理工具（技術和人工智慧允許我們部署）將幫助我們拓寬今天和明天零售的定義範圍。所以對我來說這比目前的零售業更令人興奮，儘管這是一個令人興奮的業務。我認為在未來幾年它將繼續發展並以不同的方式定義。

Okay. Thanks for that. And then one quick follow up, Terry. In the fourth quarter, you received approval from the NFA to establish your own futures commission merchant. You did put out a press release after saying that you're committed to the existing FCM model, but just was hoping you could maybe talk about what strategic benefit does this give you going forward? And would there ever be an instance where you would look to utilize it?

好的。謝謝。然後再快速跟進一下，特里。在第四季度，你們獲得了NFA的批准，可以建立自己的期貨經紀商。在表示致力於現有的 FCM 模型後，您確實發布了一份新聞稿，但我只是希望您能談談這將為您未來帶來什麼戰略利益？您是否曾想過要利用它？

I don't know if there would be a situation for me to utilize it or not. At this given moment in time, there is not. And I have said that we will not dislocate our current FCM partners with our FCM license that we now hold. I think it's important, and I've said this for a lot of years, you cannot try to get prepared when things change. You need to be prepared prior to that happening.

我不知道是否有可以利用它的情況。就目前特定時刻而言，沒有。我曾經說過，我們不會利用我們目前持有的 FCM 牌照來取代我們現有的 FCM 合作夥伴。我認為這很重要，而且我已經說了很多年，當事情發生變化時，你無法做好準備。你需要在那件事發生之前做好準備。

And this is just another step in us putting pieces of different parts of the equation in place if, in fact, market structure changes, behavior changes or the business changes a little bit. I'm not going to wait or the future of this company will not wait until that happens and try to deploy those type of assets that you don't have at the time. So it's really important for us to have those in place. My viewpoint has not changed. I am not looking to dislocate or disintermediate any of my FCMs today.

如果市場結構、行為或業務確實發生了變化，這只是我們將方程式的不同部分拼湊在一起的又一步。我不會等待，或者說這家公司的未來也不會等到這種情況發生後才嘗試部署您當時還沒有的那些資產。所以對我們來說，落實這些措施確實非常重要。我的觀點沒有改變。我今天並不想解除或解除任何 FCM 的聯繫。

Okay, thanks. That's it for me.

好的，謝謝。對我來說就是這樣了。

Alex Kramm, UBS.

瑞銀的亞歷克斯·克拉姆（Alex Kramm）。

Just quickly on capital allocation, and more specifically on buybacks. I don't think you've spoken since you got the authorization for the $3 billion. Any updates? Or can you just elaborate a little bit how you're thinking about buying back stock? Is it consistent? Is it more dependent on what the stock is doing?

快速討論資本配置，更具體地說是回購。自從你獲得 30 億美元的授權以來，我想你就沒有說過話了。有什麼更新嗎？或者您能否稍微詳細說明一下您是如何考慮回購股票的？它一致嗎？它是否更依賴股票的走勢？

And then, of course, how -- what have you been doing with it so far? Have you been buying stock or what are the near-term plans?

然後，當然，到目前為止，您正在做什麼？您是否一直在購買股票或近期有什麼計劃？

Thanks, Alex. Lynne?

謝謝，亞歷克斯。琳恩？

Yeah. Thanks, Alex. So I would say, as you saw with our most recent announcement on our dividend last week, we raised that from $1.15 to $1.25. We continue to view that as a important use of our capital. And just a reminder that we did pay out the variable dividend here in mid-January for our excess cash that we built up over the course of last year, just was paid out in that variable dividend.

是的。謝謝，亞歷克斯。因此我想說，正如您在上週我們最新發布的股息公告中所看到的那樣，我們將股息從 1.15 美元提高到了 1.25 美元。我們仍然認為這是我們資本的重要用途。需要提醒的是，我們確實在 1 月中旬支付了浮動股息，因為我們去年累積的剩餘現金就是以浮動股息的形式支付的。

So as we look to go forward with this new lever we have with the repurchase program, I would describe it as opportunistic. We're viewing this as kind of the third means that we have to return capital to our shareholders, and we'll continue to use those three levers that we have.

因此，當我們期待利用回購計劃中的這一新手段時，我將其描述為機會主義的。我們認為這是向股東返還資本的第三種方式，我們將繼續使用我們現有的這三種槓桿。

All right. That's it for me.

好的。對我來說就是這樣了。

Michael Cyprys, Morgan Stanley.

摩根士丹利的麥可‧賽普里斯 (Michael Cyprys)。

Just wanted to ask around product development opportunities around climate events, just given we've seen more severe weather patterns and natural disasters and events in recent years. Just curious how do you see the opportunity to help more customers manage risk here. You already have weather contracts?

只是想詢問有關氣候事件的產品開發機會，因為近年來我們看到了更多惡劣的天氣模式和自然災害和事件。只是好奇您如何看待幫助更多客戶管理風險的機會。您已經簽訂氣象合約了嗎？

I guess what's the potential to broaden out that product set fulsome seems the insurance industry may have some challenges from some of these events. To what extent can a capital market space contract be part of the solution? How are you thinking about that?

我猜擴大該產品系列的潛力是什麼，因為保險業似乎可能會因這些事件而面臨一些挑戰。資本市場空間契約在多大程度上可以成為解決方案的一部分？您對此有何看法？

Yeah. Thanks, Mike, I'll let Derek address that, and then I want to give a comment also to it.

是的。謝謝，麥克，我會讓德里克來解決這個問題，然後我也想對此發表評論。

Yeah. Thanks, Mike. The short answer is the market is already using our products and services today. You make a great point about weather patterns. That's one of the primary drivers of what's going on in our record activity in our ags markets from 2024. And if you look at where we're starting 2025, our Ag business is up 33% year to date and growth and almost 20% of the open interest as well.

是的。謝謝，麥克。簡而言之，市場今天已經在使用我們的產品和服務。您對天氣模式的見解非常正確。這是我們自 2024 年起在農業市場創紀錄活動的主要驅動因素之一。如果你看看我們 2025 年的起點，我們的農業業務今年迄今已成長了 33%，且未平倉合約也成長了近 20%。

So I think we're seeing significant participation for folks looking to understand the impacts on real economies. They're playing that through our Ag markets and our grains and oilseeds markets. We're also seeing that play through the energy markets, particularly nat gas, as nat gas is becoming increasingly the power source for both heating and cooling. When you look at our record results in the last year from nat gas and carrying over into this year, most importantly, our options up 61% last year.

因此，我認為我們看到人們積極參與以了解其對實體經濟的影響。他們透過我們的農業市場、穀物和油籽市場來實施這項策略。我們也看到能源市場，特別是天然氣市場正在發生這種變化，因為天然氣正日益成為暖氣和冷氣的動力來源。當您查看我們去年天然氣業務的創紀錄業績並延續到今年時，最重要的是，我們的選擇權去年上漲了 61%。

So as these unplanned, but now, to some degree, expected dislocations in weather patterns. We're actually seeing folks increase their use of our energy products to adapt for that and using options as a large proportion of that.

這些天氣模式的紊亂雖然是計劃外的，但在某種程度上是可以預料到的。我們實際上看到人們增加了對我們能源產品的使用以適應這種情況，並使用選項作為其中的很大一部分。

You also rightly mentioned our weather derivatives market. We are the largest weather drives market out there. We finished the year at about 90,000 contracts open interest. 70% of that is in the form of options. And that tells you I think we've got sophisticated end-user buy-side and commercial customers using that market, not just directly in our own derivatives, but that actually sets a lot of prices for a number of indexes and OTC transactions that trade off the back of that are indexed to and then hedge back into our weather market.

您也正確地提到了我們的天氣衍生性商品市場。我們是全球最大的天氣驅動市場。截至年底，我們的未平倉合約數量約為 90,000 份。其中70%是以選擇權的形式存在的。這表明，我認為我們擁有成熟的終端用戶買方和商業客戶，他們不僅直接使用我們自己的衍生品，而且實際上為許多指數和場外交易設定了價格，這些交易以指數為基礎進行交易，然後再對沖回我們的天氣市場。

I think that kind of the last piece to this that we're seeing this play out is in the energy transition economy. When you look at our metals business, we are the leader and putting up substantial growth in our battery metals business, whether it's cobalt, lithium, or the (inaudible) product we launched just a few months ago as folks are looking at not just the disruptions to the market.

我認為我們看到的這種發展趨勢的最後一個部分是能源轉型經濟。看看我們的金屬業務，我們是領導者，並且在電池金屬業務方面取得了長足的成長，無論是鈷、鋰，還是我們幾個月前推出的（聽不清）產品，因為人們關注的不僅僅是市場混亂。

But what the alternatives are, they are playing that through our battery metals market. They're playing that through our ethanol contract with the largest ethanol market out there, and we just launched the physical ethanol contract last week and the first two trades were actually two large agricultural customers.

但替代品是什麼？ 他們正在透過我們的電池金屬市場來發揮作用。他們透過我們與最大的乙醇市場簽訂的乙醇合約來開展這項業務，我們上週剛推出了實體乙醇合約，前兩筆交易實際上是兩個大型農業客戶。

So the last piece of that is what we're seeing in the industrial metals market. So as more work is put into the grid to reinforce our energy sector here in the US and globally. That runs right through the middle of the copper market as well as the battery metal market. And those are two markets where we're seeing record growth.

最後一點就是我們在工業金屬市場看到的情況。因此，我們需要在電網方面投入更多努力來加強美國​​和全球的能源部門。這正好貫穿了銅市場和電池金屬市場的中間。這兩個市場都呈現出創紀錄的成長。

So we certainly see that the weather derivative niche itself has room to grow, but we're seeing the market already adopting market-based solutions in CME group products. And that's why Terry referenced at the top of the script that our commodities asset classes, Energy, Ag, Metals are the three fastest-growing products in '24, and we're out of the gate strong in 2025 with Ags up 32%, Energy up 25% and Metals up 14%.

因此，我們當然看到天氣衍生性商品市場本身還有成長空間，但我們看到市場已經在芝加哥商品交易所集團產品中採用了基於市場的解決方案。這就是為什麼特里在腳本頂部提到我們的商品資產類別，能源，農業，金屬是'24年增長最快的三種產品，並且我們在2025年將表現強勁，農業上漲32％，能源上漲25％，金屬上漲14％。

So we'll continue to talk to our customers and fill that need in the portfolio. we're seeing them already use market-based solutions here at CME Group.

因此，我們將繼續與客戶溝通並在產品組合中滿足此需求。我們看到他們已經在芝加哥商品交易所集團使用基於市場的解決方案。

Just to add to that, Mike, I think what the comment that I read yesterday by [Pedger Paul] talking about how mortgages could be unattainable in many parts of the country due to insurance reasons, and you raised this in your question. And I think it's a much bigger concern than people are thinking about. Derek referenced our products today that can help manage and mitigate some of those risks. But we're looking at other ways to continue to roll out products that might be more tailored towards that industry.

麥克，我還要補充一點，我認為我昨天讀到的 [Pedger Paul] 的評論是關於由於保險原因，在全國許多地方可能無法獲得抵押貸款，你在問題中也提到了這一點。我認為這是一個比人們想像的更大的問題。德里克今天提到了我們的產品可以幫助管理和減輕其中的一些風險。但我們正在尋找其他方式來繼續推出更適合該行業的產品。

Again, this is just in the pipeline, where nothing we announced now. But I do think that is becoming more and more of an issue when it's not so much about can you qualify for a mortgage, can you qualify for a mortgage and get insurance also. So that's a big issue. And again, I think that's another reason why risk management is going to be a priority in the out years going forward.

再說一次，這只是在籌備中，現在我們還未宣布任何消息。但我確實認為，這正變得越來越成為一個問題，因為它不僅僅是關於你是否有資格獲得抵押貸款，還關乎你是否有資格獲得抵押貸款和保險。所以這是一個大問題。而且，我認為這也是為什麼風險管理在未來幾年將成為優先事項的另一個原因。

Great. Thank you.

偉大的。謝謝。

Benjamin Budish, Barclays Capital.

巴克萊資本的本傑明·布迪什 (Benjamin Budish)。

Terry, I was wondering if you could talk a little bit about -- a little more about your product expectations on the retail side. curious, it looks like looking through some of your micro products, equity indices have been sort of the lion's share. I'm curious what your sort of expectations are in terms of engagement. How do you think maybe for that product, specifically competition with other sort of S&P derivatives? And then I'll have a follow up on pricing.

特里，我想知道您是否可以稍微談論一下——關於您對零售方面的產品期望。好奇，透過查看你們的一些微型產品，似乎股票指數佔據了最大份額。我很好奇您對參與度有什麼樣的期望。您認為該產品與其他標準普爾衍生性商品的競爭情況如何？然後我會跟進定價。

Okay. Thanks, Ben. I look at the retail business, as Julie referenced, it's a massively growing business. And as I said earlier, technology is just enabling more and more participants to facilitate their own risk management, learn these products. I think education is absolutely key for retail.

好的。謝謝，本。正如朱莉所說，我看一下零售業，這是一個正在快速成長的行業。正如我之前所說，科技正在使越來越多的參與者能夠促進自己的風險管理，並了解這些產品。我認為教育對零售業來說絕對是關鍵。

And those are a couple of things that we are really focused on, making sure they understand what they're doing. But with retail, as you know, the speed to market is critically important. They don't want to sit around and wait for two weeks to be facilitated to try to open an account. They need to expedite that process. So I think that business will continue to grow and bolster.

這些都是我們真正關注的事情，確保他們了解自己在做什麼。但正如您所知，對於零售業來說，上市速度至關重要。他們不想坐著等待兩週的時間才得到開設帳戶的便利。他們需要加快這一進程。所以我認為業務將繼續成長和加強。

More and more people today, the young people today are managing their own risk. That's only going to continue. It's not going to go the other way. I'm really excited about retail. And as I said a moment ago on the previous question or two, I really think the definition of retail is going to be critically important to the growth of that industry and see how we define it.

如今，越來越多的人，尤其是年輕人，開始自行管理風險。這種情況只會持續下去。事情不會朝另一個方向發展。我對零售業非常感興趣。正如我剛才在回答前兩個問題時所說的那樣，我確實認為零售的定義對於該行業的發展至關重要，看看我們如何定義它。

Is it more mainstream versus professional? Is it a combination? Does the professional just get a little bit larger. And there's a lot of different factors here. I think a lot of those can all come through at the same time. So this is pretty exciting. I'm going to ask Julie to comment more on the retail as it relates to the growth of it.

它是否更加主流而不是更專業？這是一種組合嗎？專業是不是就變大一點了？這裡有很多不同的因素。我認為很多問題都可以同時解決。這非常令人興奮。我將請朱莉就零售業與其成長的關係發表更多評論。

Yeah, it's a great question. I do think, similar to my answer from earlier, I think that the diversity of our product suite is a real differentiator for CME. So while we have historically seen retail customers come to us first to trade our micro equity suite. I'd say that trend tends to shift given those strong macro trends that Derek spoke about earlier, the commodities interest there, especially when we look over to APAC is really strong, which is kind of contributing to our recent announcement as well about the micro ag contracts coming.

是的，這是一個很好的問題。我確實認為，與我之前的回答類似，我認為我們產品套件的多樣性是 CME 的真正差異化因素。因此，雖然我們從歷史上看到散戶客戶首先來找我們交易我們的微型股票套件。我想說，鑑於德里克之前提到的強勁的宏觀趨勢，這種趨勢往往會發生變化，那裡的大宗商品興趣，尤其是當我們放眼亞太地區時，非常強勁，這也有助於我們最近宣布即將推出的微型農業合約。

So we believe both with that as well as what we see with crypto. It's interesting that we are attracting customers with new products differently than maybe what we had in the past. I think the other trend that supports that is some of our new to futures participants are actually targeting a different segment, right? So they may be existing CFD providers. And so their entry point to come over into future is going to be different than our traditional partners in this space.

因此，我們相信這一點，也相信加密技術所取得的成果。有趣的是，我們用新產品吸引顧客的方式可能與過去不同。我認為支持這一點的另一個趨勢是，我們的一些新期貨參與者實際上瞄準的是不同的細分市場，對嗎？因此他們可能是現有的 CFD 提供者。因此，他們未來的切入點將不同於我們在這個領域的傳統合作夥伴。

But the great thing is we're still continuing to see great really strong year-on-year growth from our existing partners as well. So a lot of this comes down to building awareness making sure they have the product education that they need and our team is working very closely with them on that front. And this allows us to easily cross-sell with what is interesting and what products are moving at that point in time.

但最棒的是，我們仍然看到現有合作夥伴的業績年增率非常強勁。因此，這在很大程度上歸結為建立意識，確保他們獲得所需的產品教育，而我們的團隊正在這方面與他們密切合作。這使我們能夠輕鬆地根據當時感興趣的產品和熱銷的產品進行交叉銷售。

And just to add to that, then, you referenced competition and Julie touched on a little bit. For us, with all the different asset classes that I referenced in my opening remarks, hitting all these new highs, it is really important that you introduce new potential retail clients, and there's something they feel they know something about today.

另外，您提到了競爭，朱莉也稍微談到了這一點。對我們來說，隨著我在開場白中提到的所有不同資產類別都創下新高，向他們介紹新的潛在散戶客戶並讓他們覺得自己今天對某些東西有所了解確實非常重要。

So if you come up with a very difficult product for them to try to understand. So if you listed a SOFR contract to the retail participants, they might have a different -- more difficult time participating in that than they would in a gold, silver, oil, or some of our other contracts that are more mainstream than they hear about every single day. So the question is, how can we customize those products for their ability to participate.

所以，如果你設計出一款讓他們很難理解的產品。因此，如果你向零售參與者列出 SOFR 合約，他們參與該合約時可能會遇到與黃金、白銀、石油或我們其他一些比他們每天聽到的更主流的合約不同的困難。所以問題是，我們如何客製化這些產品以提高他們的參與能力。

And those are the things that we're working on. So I think from a competitive standpoint, to your competitive question then, along with the crypto. We're in a really strong position to introduce these to a whole new audience of retail participants.

這些就是我們正在努力的事情。因此，我認為從競爭的角度來看，對於你的競爭問題，以及加密貨幣。我們擁有非常有利的地位，可以向全新的零售參與者群介紹這些內容。

Great. I appreciate all the color. And just one housekeeping question maybe for Lynn, on the sort of pricing change expectation. I just want to make sure I had it correct. The fee adjustments on the trading side, 1% to 1.5% and then adding the sort of fee changes of cash menu, does that add another 1% on top? So the total is 2% to 2.5%. And I also wanted to double check, does the transaction fee piece, is that sort of net of incentive changes? Or is that the sort of pricing changes in isolation?

偉大的。我欣賞這一切的色彩。也許我只想問 Lynn 一個基本問題，關於價格變動的預期。我只是想確保我的理解是正確的。交易方面的費用調整，從 1% 變為 1.5%，然後加上現金菜單的費用變化，是否會再增加 1%？所以總數是 2% 到 2.5%。我還想再確認一下，交易費部分是否扣除了激勵變化？或者這是一種孤立的定價變化？

Yeah. So Incentives are included in that. So that's the expectation. We always are looking at not just RAC rate changes, but also incentive changes. So if you look at that 1% to 1.5%, that is inclusive of the changes being made there.

是的。因此激勵措施也包含在內。這就是我們的期望。我們始終關注的不僅是 RAC 費率的變化，還有激勵措施的變化。因此，如果您查看 1% 到 1.5%，其中包括在那裡進行的更改。

Now the thing you have to be conscious of on the other elements, so the collateral fee is going to be based on customer choice. So it could lead to a higher rate that we capture on the non-cash collateral that would flow through other revenue. But it also could mean that our customers would post more cash, which is the goal of this structure because we want that cash from a risk management perspective.

現在您必須注意其他因素，因此抵押費將基於客戶的選擇。因此，這可能導致我們獲得流經其他收入的非現金抵押品的利率更高。但這也可能意味著我們的客戶將投入更多現金，這是此結構的目標，因為從風險管理的角度來說我們希望獲得這些現金。

So if we see a shift to cash, you would see more of that come through in the non-operating income. So when we talked about that 2% to 2.5%, that's a pre-tax earnings number because we don't know yet if we'll see the increase in the other revenue or in the non-operating income. It will depend on that decision by the customer base.

因此，如果我們看到現金轉移，您會看到更多的現金流體現在非營業收入。因此，當我們談論 2% 到 2.5% 時，這是一個稅前收益數字，因為我們還不知道其他收入或非營業收入是否會增加。這將取決於客戶群的決定。

Okay. Very helpful. Thank you.

好的。非常有幫助。謝謝。

Chris Allen, Citi.

花旗銀行的克里斯艾倫 (Chris Allen)。

Thanks for taking the question. I want to ask about your securities clearing a build-out there, j23ust kind of where that stands currently? You talked in the past about having this as an option if the marketplace demanded it relative to the kind of incumbent. So I'm just wondering where that kind of stands and how you think about it from a revenue opportunity standpoint longer term?

感謝您回答這個問題。我想問一下你們那裡的證券清算業務，目前情況如何？您過去曾談到，如果市場相對於現任者有此要求，可以將此作為一種選擇。所以我只是想知道這種情況處於什麼位置，以及您如何從長期收入機會的角度看待它？

It's a good question, and I'll turn it over to Suzanne Sprague, our Chief Operating Officer and Head of [Risk] and Clearing.

這是一個好問題，我將把它交給我們的營運長兼[風險]和清算主管蘇珊娜·斯普拉格 (Suzanne Sprague)。

Yeah. Thanks, Chris. So we're pleased that our application for our securities clearing house has been published now in the Federal Register in January of this year. And we continue engaging with the SEC toward approval. We are excited about the opportunities that that license could be in terms of generating additional value for our customers.

是的。謝謝，克里斯。我們很高興，我們的證券清算所申請已於今年 1 月在《聯邦公報》上公佈。我們將繼續與美國證券交易委員會合作，爭取獲得批准。我們對該許可證可能為我們的客戶創造額外價值的機會感到非常興奮。

We also continue partnering very closely with the Fixed Income Clearing Corporation to expand our cross-margining program with FICC, not only for the existing house account structure that's in place today, but to expand that offering as well. So capital efficiencies is a large focus for us, as we've talked about already on this call, and both with our own security clearing offering and continuing to expand that partnership with FICC we're looking forward to being able to deliver that in a larger way.

我們也繼續與固定收益清算公司密切合作，擴大我們與 FICC 的交叉保證金計劃，不僅針對目前現有的內部帳戶結構，而且還擴大該產品的服務範圍。因此，資本效率是我們關注的重點，正如我們在本次電話會議上已經討論過的那樣，透過我們自己的證券清算產品以及繼續擴大與 FICC 的合作夥伴關係，我們都期待能夠以更大的方式實現這一目標。

So Chris, sometimes you hear folks, especially recently said that this could be delayed and that's not a surprise. Any time you implement a new policy, everybody thinks they might be ready, but they're not. But I think what's really important, Suzanne touched on it, and we've been touching on this for quite a while, is the benefits that this clearing offering offers to clients by freeing up a bunch of capital for them.

所以克里斯，有時你會聽到人們，特別是最近說這可能會被推遲，這並不奇怪。每當你實施一項新政策時，每個人都認為他們可能已經做好準備，但事實並非如此。但我認為真正重要的是，蘇珊娜提到了這一點，而且我們也已經討論這個問題很長時間了，即這種清算服務通過釋放大量資金為客戶帶來的好處。

So even though it may be delayed and some people think that they don't want it. When you look at the savings, they're just truly undeniable. And we're referencing $60 billion of margin efficiencies when we're referencing $20 billion of rate efficiencies alone within CME. These -- I testified a lot back in 2010 during Dodd-Frank. And the biggest opposers are the biggest beneficiaries today of central clearing and the offsets that they get to free up their balance sheet in lieu of some of the other requirements that have come at them on their balance sheet.

因此，儘管它可能會被推遲，但有些人認為他們不想要它。當你看到節省的金額時，這是確實無可否認的。當我們提到芝加哥商品交易所 (CME) 內部的 200 億美元利率效率時，我們指的是 600 億美元的保證金效率。這些——我在 2010 年多德-弗蘭克法案期間作過很多證。而最大的反對者如今正是中央清算及其抵銷措施的最大受益者，他們可以透過這種抵銷措施釋放自己的資產負債表，以取代資產負債表上遇到的一些其他要求。

So this is a huge bonus for the participants going forward. So -- and whether they use fixed offering or whether they use ours or someone else's, we think this is a benefit for the industry. So we're looking forward to pursuing it.

因此，這對未來的參與者來說是一個巨大的獎勵。所以——無論他們使用固定產品還是使用我們的產品或其他人的產品，我們都認為這對產業有益。因此我們期待著實現這一目標。

And just on that point of view, don't you any work to kind of quantify what the margin saving potential that you would theoretically see for the industry?

僅從這個角度來看，您是否沒有任何工作來量化理論上該行業所能節省的利潤潛力？

No. At this point, it's hard to tell. I think choice is important here. we have seen an increase in clearing members to take advantage of the existing house account program with the Fixed Income Clearing Corporation. And with expanding it to clients that presents additional opportunity for clients to be able to maintain that relationship that they have today in the marketplace and gain the efficiencies at the clearing level through the existing structure, as well as bringing online new offering through the CME securities clearing house.

不。目前還很難說。我認為這裡的選擇很重要。我們看到越來越多的清算會員利用固定收益清算公司的現有內部帳戶計劃。透過將其擴展到客戶，為客戶提供了額外的機會，使他們能夠維持目前在市場上的關係，並透過現有結構在清算層面獲得效率，以及透過芝加哥商品交易所 (CME) 證券清算所提供線上新產品。

So there are a lot of moving parts, I think, choice that is key for these market participants, especially as the clearing mandate evolves. It's hard to anticipate what those numbers will look like given all of those variables.

因此，我認為，有許多變動因素，對於這些市場參與者來說，選擇是關鍵，特別是在清算任務不斷發展的情況下。考慮到所有這些變量，很難預測這些數字會是多少。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Dan Fannon, Jefferies.

丹‧範農 (Dan Fannon)，傑富瑞 (Jefferies)。

Terry, I was hoping you kind of -- you could expand upon your comments on just the outlook for activity, knowing you obviously don't have a crystal ball, but maybe just discuss the setup as we sit here in kind of mid-February of 2025 after several record years of growth for you. What are the kind of building blocks you think of growth and activity as we think about 2025 from a transaction perspective?

特里，我希望你能就活動前景進一步闡述你的評論，顯然你沒有水晶球，但也許可以討論一下在經歷了幾年創紀錄的增長之後，也就是 2025 年 2 月中旬的情況。當我們從交易角度思考 2025 年時，您認為成長和活動的基石是什麼？

Yeah. Dan, my outlook really hasn't changed a lot over the last several years. I think it's going to be a very difficult environment for a lot of companies and individuals around the world and you need to manage and mitigate that risk.

是的。丹，過去幾年我的觀點確實沒有太大的改變。我認為對於全球很多公司和個人來說​​這將是一個非常困難的環境，你需要管理和降低這種風險。

I mean nothing's really changed from a year ago, except when you acquired just a touch more debt. So when you're looking at $36 trillion here in the United States of that $36.5 trillion, $1.9 trillion deficit, you have the political issues in Washington about people trying to cut spending potentially cutting taxes.

我的意思是，與一年前相比，什麼都沒有改變，除了你欠了一點點債。因此，當你看到美國的 36.5 兆美元赤字中有 36 兆美元是赤字，其中 1.9 兆美元是赤字，你就會看到華盛頓的政治問題，即人們試圖削減開支，從而可能削減稅收。

There's so many moving parts right now. It's hard to say that people can -- will not be up to manage that kind of risk because it has such an impact on everyone's business, what rates do or don't do. Even the smallest rate increase or decrease could have a massive impact on the balance sheet with these kind of numbers outstanding.

目前有很多活動部件。很難說人們是否能夠管理這種風險，因為利率對每個人的業務都有很大的影響。在如此巨大的數字面前，即使是最小幅度的利率上調或下調，也可能對資產負債表產生巨大影響。

So we're -- I think geopolitically, we're still looking at the conversation around deregulation, which we haven't really gotten to and President Trump's agenda, he's dealing with other issues right now. He's got a very large agenda. So it's going to be fascinating, but I think all these twists and turns that he has presented, which is exactly what the American public voted a man to do, and he's telegraphed it to a T. So this is not -- shouldn't be a surprise.

所以，我認為從地緣政治角度來看，我們仍在關注放鬆管制的討論，我們還沒有真正討論這個問題，而川普總統的議程是，他現在正在處理其他問題。他有一個非常大的議程。所以這會很有趣，但我認為他所呈現的所有這些曲折，正是美國公眾投票選舉他要做的事情，他也完全表達了這一點。

They all have a cause and effect on the economies, not only in the United States but globally, and I think people need to mitigate and manage that risk. So I do believe that you're going to continue to see a very active marketplace.

它們都對經濟有因果關係，不僅在美國，而且在全球，我認為人們需要減輕和管理這種風險。因此我相信你會繼續看到一個非常活躍的市場。

Derek referenced some of the commodity products. I think and I referenced it in my early remarks for a reason, I actually think that you'll start to see more commodity index funds participating trying to manage that risk whether it's due to tariffs, whether it's due to weather, whether is due to a lot of things.

德里克提到了一些商品。我認為，我在之前的評論中提到它是有原因的，我實際上認為你會開始看到更多的商品指數基金參與試圖管理這種風險，無論是由於關稅，還是由於天氣，還是由於很多因素。

And then, of course, when you look at foreign exchange, right now, foreign exchange is jumping around quite a bit because of the potential tariffs that we haven't seen the well. These are all things that you don't -- we haven't seen, they've been a little quiet lately that could come to the forefront in 2025.

當然，當你看外匯時，現在，由於我們還沒有看到的潛在關稅，外匯正在大幅波動。這些都是您——我們還沒有看到——的事情，它們最近有點沉寂，但可能會在 2025 年成為焦點。

So actually, I'm pretty optimistic again across all six asset classes for CME. There's a lot out there, Dan, as you know. And so even though we feel like our lives are going well and things are going good, there are still a lot of dangerous places, especially economically around the world that we have to deal with. So -- and I think that's what we're here to manage.

因此實際上，我對 ​​CME 的所有六種資產類別再次非常樂觀。丹，正如你所知，那裡有很多東西。因此，儘管我們覺得我們的生活過得很好，事情進展順利，但仍然有很多危險的地方，特別是世界各地經濟方面的危險，我們必須應對。所以——我認為這就是我們來這裡要做的事情。

Great. That's helpful. And then just as a follow up, in terms of capital return, I understand the buyback and the dividend, but on an inorganic or M&A perspective, can you remind us around the framework of how you're thinking about that? And ultimately, has that changed at all given maybe looser potentially standards around M&A that maybe broadens what you would be looking at under the current administration versus prior?

偉大的。這很有幫助。然後作為後續問題，就資本回報而言，我理解回購和股息，但從無機或併購的角度來看，您能否提醒我們您是如何考慮這一點的？最後，考慮到可能對併購的標準更加寬鬆，與前任政府相比，現任政府所考慮的範圍可能會擴大，這種情況是否有所改變？

Yeah, I'll take the second part of the question, and then I'll give the first part to Lynne. It's yet to be seen what the regulations are going to be around M&A or not. It was a difficult environment under the Biden administration for the DOJ perspective to get some deals done and even IPOs out the door.

是的，我將回答問題的第二部分，然後將第一部分交給 Lynne。目前還不清楚針對併購的具體規定。在拜登政府的環境下，司法部很難完成一些交易，甚至難以進行 IPO。

People are talking about how this could be different this year. It's really hard to draw a conclusion, Dan, when we're a couple of weeks into the year, and we haven't seen a whole lot of activity just yet on deregulation or new companies coming forward.

人們正在討論今年的情況會有何不同。丹，今年才剛過去幾週，我們還沒有看到有關放鬆管製或新公司成立的大量活動，所以真的很難得出結論。

So I think that's going to take some time to get into the system to see if that materializes one way or not. And I will let Lynne talk about the former on the repurchase.

所以我認為這將需要一些時間來進入系統，看看它是否能以某種方式實現。關於回購，我將讓 Lynne 來談談前者。

Yeah. So I think, Dan, our approach to M&A is the same that it has been. We put ourselves in a good position from a balance sheet perspective. We're very conservative there. So that if the right opportunity comes up, we have the capacity and the ability to act. But we tend to be a bit more choosy, I guess, I would say. And not as acquisitive as some of the others in our space.

是的。所以我認為，丹，我們對待併購的態度與以前是一樣的。從資產負債表的角度來看，我們處於有利地位。我們那裡非常保守。這樣，一旦出現合適的機會，我們就有能力和能力採取行動。但我想說，我們往往會更挑剔。而且不像我們這個領域的其他人那樣具有貪婪的慾望。

We typically are looking for things where there's a clear path to value and something that is in our core competencies, if that's risk management, running markets, creating capital efficiencies for our clients. So we continue to look just as we always do. And if the opportunity were to be there, we're more than happy to execute on M&A.

我們通常會尋找那些具有明確價值路徑且屬於我們核心競爭力的東西，例如風險管理、市場運作、為我們的客戶創造資本效率。因此我們將繼續像往常一樣進行觀察。如果有機會，我們非常樂意進行併購。

Dan, we're focused on so many different things. But one of the things I keep telling my team is, you have to be able to look over your shoulder and see a pipeline of clients coming down in the future in some way, shape or form because there's a lot of business turning around right now and not seeing anybody. That's not the situation for CME, and we're going to make sure it continues that way.

丹，我們關注的事情有很多不同。但我一直告訴我的團隊的一件事是，你必須能夠回頭看看，未來客戶群會以某種方式、形式出現，因為現在很多業務都在好轉，卻看不到任何人。CME 的情況並非如此，我們將確保它繼續保持這種狀態。

So we are looking at not just some of your traditional ways, if you want to call M&A, but other avenues in how we build this business. But it's really important, as I referenced earlier, to make sure that that customer base is continually educated and coming into your doors at the pace that they need to come in here with, but it's important to make sure you look over your shoulder and know there's a pipeline of participants coming, and that's what we are working towards and doing right now.

因此，如果你想稱之為併購，我們不僅在考慮一些傳統方式，還在考慮如何建立這項業務的其他途徑。但正如我之前提到的，確保客戶群不斷接受教育並以他們需要的速度進入你的大門確實很重要，但重要的是確保你時刻警惕，知道有一群參與者正在到來，這就是我們現在正在努力實現和做的事情。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Brian Bedell, Deutsche Bank.

德意志銀行的布萊恩‧貝德爾 (Brian Bedell)。

Thanks for taking my questions. If I can come back to the retail theme and Terry especially your comments around the blurring of the retail users. It sounds like it's mostly between individuals and professionals. I mean just in terms of identifying that, I guess the simple question is, aren't they all coming in from retail-oriented FCMs or is there a mix that you can tell?

感謝您回答我的問題。如果我可以回到零售主題和特里，特別是你關於零售用戶模糊的評論。聽起來這主要發生在個人和專業人士之間。我的意思是，僅從識別這一點來看，我想簡單的問題是，他們不是都來自面向零售的 FCM 嗎，還是您可以分辨出其中有混合？

And is the blurring simply on, say, retail professional traders and then how you treat them differently from retail. And then the tangent question to that is to what extent are they interacting directly with CME and things like data and analytics as opposed to say, at their retail brokerages. And is that -- to what extent is that an opportunity to create more vibrant data and analytics for that retail class?

並且，這是否只是對零售專業交易員的界定模糊，以及如何區別對待他們與零售交易員？那麼與此相關的問題是，他們在多大程度上直接與 CME 以及資料和分析等互動，而不是在他們的零售經紀業務中互動。這在多大程度上是為零售階層創造更有活力的數據和分析的機會？

Yeah. Thanks, Brian. I appreciate the question. And again, what I was referring to in my opening remarks, between retail blurring was more on the institutional, not splitting the hairs of what a retail client is today. versus what it might look like tomorrow.

是的。謝謝，布萊恩。我很感謝你提出這個問題。再說一次，我在開場白中提到的零售模糊更多的是在機構上，而不是在細枝末節地解釋當今的零售客戶。而不是明天的樣子。

I did reference that I thought that the definition of retail is going to change over the years. I didn't reference that it's changed to date. So I think what I'm referring to when I say they're blurred, I'm referring to the retail versus institutional today.

我確實提到過，我認為零售的定義將隨著時間的推移而改變。我還沒提到它至今已經改變了。因此我認為當我說它們模糊時，我指的是當今的零售與機構之間的區別。

Why? Because the professional retail has technology and a lot of other tools that did not have five, six, seven, ten years ago that they do have today, and they're coming more at a much cheaper cost than they historically have. So that was my comment around blurring between current retail and individual.

為什麼？因為專業零售業擁有五、六、七年甚至十年前所沒有的技術和許多其他工具，而今天它們已經擁有了，而且成本比歷史上便宜得多。這就是我對當前零售和個人之間的界線模糊的評論。

Now as it relates to retail to retail versus the individual that you referenced. I think that definition will change as well. It just hasn't been defined yet what it's going to look like. So I want to make sure I'm clear on that. I'm not saying that's changed to date.

現在，它與零售對零售以及您所提到的個人相關。我認為這個定義也會改變。只是還沒定義它會是什麼樣子。所以我想確保我清楚這一點。我並不是說到目前為止情況已經改變了。

I'm suggesting that it will change tomorrow. And why will it change? I think it is going through our existing FCM today. I think it will continue to go there as they continue to embrace -- bring in new tools to allow clients to -- that they feel comfortable with managing. There's been kind of a pushback from some people about not wanting to have certain clients in their FCMs because of the risk profiles associated with that, and I can certainly understand that.

我建議明天就進行改變。為什麼會改變呢？我認為它今天正在通過我們現有的 FCM。我認為，隨著他們繼續接受並引入新工具，讓客戶能夠輕鬆管理，這種情況將會持續下去。有些人不願意讓某些客戶加入他們的 FCM，因為這會帶來風險，我完全理解他們的做法。

But I do believe that some of the new technology tools and risk management protocols will allow that universe to grow. So that's what I was referring to. As it relates to the data and analytics, I'm going to ask Julie to comment on that.

但我確實相信，一些新的技術工具和風險管理協議將使這個領域得以發展。這就是我所指的。由於它與數據和分析相關，我將請朱莉對此發表評論。

Yeah. No, great question. And I think we have seen some great trends there. I think it plays to the point earlier about just the growing sophistication of these users. They are big users of data. They are looking at analytics to make their trading decisions. And I also think, right, that trend towards just how these communities are connecting online and getting trading ideas from one another is also contributing to what we're seeing with this retail flow.

是的。不，這個問題問得好。我認為我們已經看到了一些很棒的趨勢。我認為這已經觸及了先前提到的用戶日益成熟的問題。他們是數據的大用戶。他們正在透過分析來做出交易決策。我還認為，這些社群在網路上聯繫並相互交換想法的趨勢也促成了我們所看到的零售流動。

So as it relates back to our data business from -- we had a record quarter. Certainly, we are up 9%. But specifically as it relates back to this non-professional device usage, we saw an increase just even from Q3 to Q4 of almost 40% from our vendors and our brokers in terms of increased units that they were reporting to us on a non-professional or retail basis. So the demand and the interest is there.

因此，就我們的數據業務而言，我們度過了一個創紀錄的季度。當然，我們成長了 9%。但具體到非專業設備的使用，我們看到從第三季度到第四季度，我們的供應商和經紀人以非專業或零售方式向我們報告的增加單位數量增加了近 40%。因此需求和興趣是存在的。

And our retail brokers are also offering things in that way. They know they need to provide robot data and analytics in order to continue to attract and educate them about what's going on in the marketplace. So I think that is a key component as we think about this. I think the other trend that I would look at is we're seeing a lot of increased usage of options among the retail client base as well.

我們的零售經紀人也以這種方式提供產品。他們知道他們需要提供機器人數據和分析，以便繼續吸引他們並讓他們了解市場動態。因此我認為，這是我們思考這個問題時的關鍵因素。我認為我要關注的另一個趨勢是，我們也看到零售客戶群對選擇權的使用也大大增加。

And that, again, I think, speaks to increased sophistication and we're seeing a lot more of our retail brokers being in a position to offer options as 2024 progressed and looking into 2025. And I think that blends nicely with just the need for data and analytics as well.

而且，我認為這再次表明成熟度有所提高，隨著 2024 年的進展和展望 2025 年，我們看到越來越多的零售經紀商能夠提供選擇。我認為，這與數據和分析的需求完美地融合在一起。

That's helpful. And can you cite like what portion of your revenue you think is coming from that retail or (inaudible), or is that too difficult to assess?

這很有幫助。您能否舉例說明，您認為您的收入中有多少部分來自零售或（聽不清楚），或者這是否太難評估？

We have broken out some of the retail revenue, but not by -- not so granular by individual. I think Julie you have some --

我們已經公佈了部分零售收入，但不是按個人進行細分的。我認為朱莉你有一些--

Yeah, I don't think we've historically disclosed what the portion is what we've said is of our new client acquisition. That's two-third of the $1 billion that we've seen over the last five years, which was contributing 5% of our transaction revenue.

是的，我認為我們過去沒有披露過我們所說的新客戶獲取的比例是多少。這是我們過去五年 10 億美元的三分之二，貢獻了我們交易收入的 5%。

Got it. And then if I could just ask one last one for Lynne on the cash collateral. If you can go through the rates coming into 1Q on the cash collateral. And is there -- has there already been any change with the new program coming into this year?

知道了。然後，我可以為 Lynne 最後一個關於現金抵押的問題嗎？如果您可以查看第一季的現金抵押利率。今年實施的新計畫有沒有什麼變化？

Yeah. So if you look at start to this quarter, the US cash balances have ticked up a bit from where they were in Q4. So we had $75 billion on average in cash in Q4, quarter to date, we're running at $77 billion. On the non-cash collateral, we were at $178 billion in the quarter, and quarter to date, Q1 is $175 billion. Now the change on the non-cash collateral fee and the cash minimum does not take effect until April, but you won't see that change this quarter.

是的。因此，如果你看看本季初的情況，美國現金餘額較第四季略有上升。因此，我們第四季的平均現金餘額為 750 億美元，截至目前，我們的現金餘額為 770 億美元。就非現金抵押品而言，本季我們的抵押品金額為 1,780 億美元，而第一季迄今的抵押品金額為 1,750 億美元。現在，非現金抵押費和最低現金限額的變更要到 4 月才生效，但本季您不會看到這項變更。

Got it. Okay, great. Thank you.

知道了。好的，太好了。謝謝。

Bill Katz, TD Cowen.

比爾·卡茨（Bill Katz），TD Cowen 公司。

Just going back to the regulatory backdrop. Terry, I'd be curious what is the sort of the most recent update as it relates to the competitive backdrop on the interest rate contract and the US treasury contract. I know there's been a lot of back and forth during the quarter in terms of some congressional commentary. But what's the sense here in terms of the sort of the regulatory scrutiny around US, non-US interplay for that part of the platform?

回到監管背景。特里，我很好奇最新的更新是什麼樣的，因為它與利率合約和美國國債合約的競爭背景有關。我知道本季國會對一些問題的評論有很多來回。但是，對於該平台的這一部分，對美國與美國以外的國家之間的相互作用進行監管審查的意義何在？

Yeah. Thanks, Bill. And I think the change is more clarity. And I think there was a lot of miscommunication of what I was saying and what CME was saying as it relates to the competitor's offering, which was that LCH is a duly registered clearinghouse in the UK and the US I totally agree with that, where the monies of the depositors could be kept in US banks or non-US banks. I totally agree with that. So I never argued the things that they said I was talking about.

是的。謝謝，比爾。我認為變化更加清晰了。我認為，我所說的和 CME 在涉及競爭對手的產品時所說的存在很多誤解，我的理解是，LCH 是一家在英國和美國正式註冊的清算機構，我完全同意這一點，存款人的資金可以存放在美國銀行或非美國銀行。我完全同意這一點。所以我從來沒有爭論過他們所說的我所談論的事情。

I argued about the default and resolution of the London Clearing House, which falls under the exclusive jurisdiction of the Bank of England. Now if you took the rate swaps market that's clear that LCH is bigger than the [damn] country. That is going to be a massive focus for the Bank of England when you look how big that market could be and if there was ever a default.

我爭論的是倫敦清算所的違約和解決方案，該清算所屬於英格蘭銀行的專屬管轄範圍。現在，如果你關注利率互換市場，那麼很明顯 LCH 比這個國家還要大。當你考慮到該市場規模有多大以及是否會出現違約時，這將成為英格蘭銀行的重點。

If they were to try to clear US foreign sovereign debt on futures, which is larger than the cash market on a turnover basis, in that country and the US did not have a seat at the table or have any authority on default and resolution, we feel that that's detrimental, not only to the US treasury market to the people who own that debt. Because when you tear up trades, it's not where even a small portion, if someone gets sick, we all get a cold. When you're talking about a market as big as $28 trillion, if someone gets sick, we all get cancer.

如果他們試圖在該國以期貨形式清算美國外國主權債務（以營業額計算，期貨市場比現貨市場規模更大），而美國又沒有發言權，也沒有權力處理違約和解決事宜，我們認為這不僅對美國國債市場有害，對持有這些債務的人來說也有害。因為當你撕毀交易時，即使是一小部分，如果有人生病了，我們都會感冒。當你談論一個高達 28 兆美元的市場時，如果有人生病了，我們所有人都會得癌症。

That's a bad outcome. So it's important for the US under sovereign debt under the treasury department, and you heard what Secretary Bessent said at the hearing that it's important that the United States of America, has the resolution authority embedded in the US.

這是一個糟糕的結果。因此，對於美國來說，在財政部管轄下的主權債務問題上，這一點很重要，正如你聽到貝森特部長在聽證會上所說，美國擁有嵌入在美國境內的解決權力，這一點很重要。

So again, I've been making this argument for a long time, and I think people are realizing it, and we'll see where it goes. But I feel good that people are understanding the differences now versus where we were at just a few short months ago where others on the other side, we're trying to confuse the issue. And even our new Commerce Secretary, which will probably be voted on this week, when asked in the committee by Senator Cantwell you give a very convoluted answer that it had nothing to do with what I just referenced.

所以，我再說一遍，我長期以來一直在爭論這個論點，我認為人們已經意識到了這一點，我們將拭​​目以待事情的走向。但我很高興人們現在能夠理解其中的差異，而幾個月前，其他人卻試圖混淆這個問題。甚至我們的新任商務部長，可能將於本週進行投票，當參議員坎特韋爾在委員會中詢問時，你給出了一個非常複雜的答案，說這與我剛才提到的無關。

Okay. Thank you. And maybe just coming back to pricing for me. I just want to make sure I understand this. Just looking at my notes from a year ago, I think your pricing in futures options was up 1.5% to 2%. And I think I heard today a little bit lesser rate about 1% to 1.5%.

好的。謝謝。對我來說也許只是回到定價問題。我只是想確保我理解這一點。僅查看我一年前的筆記，我認為您的期貨選擇權定價上漲了 1.5% 至 2%。我今天聽到的利率略低一些，約為 1% 至 1.5%。

A, am I thinking about that on a like-for-like basis? Is that the right way to think about it? And B, if that is the case, can you talk a little bit about maybe the puts and takes of where you saw the greatest pricing capabilities maybe by either trading class or geography or by clientele type.

答：我是否以同類事物為基礎來思考這個問題？這是正確的思考方式嗎？B，如果是這樣的話，您能否談談您認為最具定價能力的領域，可能是按交易類別、地理位置或客戶類型劃分的？

Yes, Bill, thanks for the question. So you're correct. The adjustment on the clearing transaction fee is a bit lower this year than it was last year. It's not unusual for us to pull different pricing levers. What we're always trying to make sure is that we don't impact the velocity of trade coming across our system.

是的，比爾，謝謝你的提問。所以你是對的。今年清算交易手續費的調整幅度較去年降低。我們採取不同的定價手段並不罕見。我們始終試圖確保我們不會影響系統中貿易的速度。

To us, it's not just focused on RPC, it's how do we continue to drive healthy volume given the high incremental margin that we delivered -- that we achieve on that next trade. So you have to balance not just changes on clearing and transaction fees. You've got to look at the changes on data as well as the changes on collateral. And as we talked about, there was this new soft minimum that was put in on the collateral side, which did have an impact to our client base.

對我們來說，重點不僅僅是 RPC，還在於我們如何在下一筆交易中實現高增量利潤的情況下繼續推動健康的交易量。因此，你必須平衡的不僅僅是清算和交易費用的變化。您必須查看資料的變化以及抵押品的變化。正如我們所討論的，在抵押品方面設立了新的軟最低限額，這確實對我們的客戶群產生了影響。

So the mix shifted a bit away from the clearing and transaction fees. You want to look at where those changes were impacted the most. We made changes in the crypto complex as well as metals, both on the micro side and options. Also in nat gas and our grains complex in our agricultural commodities. So those were the contracts that we saw the largest increases this year.

因此，費用組合略微偏離了清算費用和交易費用。您想看看這些變化受到的影響最大的地方。我們對加密貨幣綜合體以及金屬進行了變革，包括微觀方面和選擇權方面。我們的農產品中還包括天然氣和穀物綜合體。所以這些是我們今年看到增幅最大的合約。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Owen Lau, Oppenheimer.

歐文劉、奧本海默。

Thank you for taking my question. So you mentioned crypto multiple times on the call with increasing regulatory clarity, how does CME think about further expansion into this space would you consider launching more derivative products for tokens other than Bitcoin and Ether? And what does it take to go there?

感謝您回答我的問題。所以您在電話會議上多次提到加密貨幣，隨著監管日益清晰，CME 如何考慮進一步擴展到這一領域，您是否會考慮推出更多除比特幣和以太幣以外的代幣衍生產品？那麼去那裡需要做什麼呢？

Thanks, Owen. And I think it's a very interesting asset class. As you know, we were one of the first to come out with the crypto with Bitcoin in 2017 under the regime and rules that we put forward, and we think that was a very smart way to approach listing Bitcoin. And then you can see in the numbers today is reflective of the growth of that product and along with Ether.

謝謝，歐文。我認為這是一個非常有趣的資產類別。如你所知，我們是 2017 年在我們提出的製度和規則下最早推出比特幣加密貨幣的公司之一，我們認為這是列出比特幣的一種非常明智的方式。然後您可以看到今天的數字反映了該產品以及 Ether 的成長。

As far as other products goes, I think it's going to be really important for us to consult and work with the SEC to make sure we get their comfort level about what's been the security and what is not. And that is yet to be decided from that agency. We continue to work with them but we will not front on them in any way, shape or form on other cryptocurrencies until we have much deeper conversations.

就其他產品而言，我認為與美國證券交易委員會 (SEC) 協商和合作對我們來說非常重要，以確保他們清楚了解哪些是安全的，哪些不是。該機構尚未做出決定。我們會繼續與他們合作，但在我們進行更深入的對話之前，我們不會以任何方式、形式在其他加密貨幣上與他們對抗。

But there are some -- there's an appetite out there. I'll turn it to Tim McCourt, who runs that asset class to talk a little bit more about the potential appetite for those other currencies.

但還是有一些——人們有這種胃口。我將請管理該資產類別的 Tim McCourt 進一步談談對其他貨幣的潛在需求。

Great. Thanks, Terry. And Terry is absolutely right. Our long-standing approach to the cryptocurrency business at CME Group is to be the trusted and transparent regulated venue we're going to continue to wait for the regulatory clarity and certainty before we introduce additional products on additional tokens and cryptocurrencies.

偉大的。謝謝，特里。特里完全正確。芝商所對加密貨幣業務的長期方針是成為值得信賴和透明的受監管場所，我們將繼續等待監管的明確性和確定性，然後再推出更多代幣和加密貨幣的產品。

We've been rewarded to date because of that because the secret to our success is listening to clients for demand-driven product development to meet their risk management needs in this new asset class. It continues to grow and when we look at just even this month in February, we had our largest trading date in cryptocurrency, with almost 700,000 contracts trading on February 3, continuing to establish records across Bitcoin and across Ether in both standard and microsized contracts and continuing to innovate in the Bitcoin and Etther lanes.

我們迄今為止獲得了豐厚的回報，因為我們成功的秘訣就是傾聽客戶的意見，以需求為導向進行產品開發，以滿足他們在這一新資產類別中的風險管理需求。它還在繼續增長，僅看二月份，我們就見證了加密貨幣交易量最大的一天，2 月 3 日交易了近 70 萬份合約，繼續在比特幣和以太幣的標準合約和微型合約中創下記錄，並繼續在比特幣和以太幣領域進行創新。

That is where we have the certainty and clarity at present with our regulators, and we continue to introduce products like the Bitcoin Friday futures, the financially cash-settled Bitcoin Friday future options, and continuing to introduce an additional order types and transactional handshakes around Bitcoin and Ether, and that will continue to grow in 2025, and we look forward to working with our clients and the regulators to see what additional products make sense in the future.

這就是我們目前與監管機構保持確定性和清晰度的地方，我們將繼續推出比特幣週五期貨、以現金結算的比特幣週五期貨期權等產品，並繼續推出圍繞比特幣和以太幣的其他訂單類型和交易握手，並且這一趨勢將在 2025 年繼續增長，我們期待與我們的客戶和監管機構合作，看看未來哪些其他產品有意義。

Got it. That's super helpful. And then quickly, going back to the fourth quarter futures and options RPC, it was $0.701, up from $0.666 in the third quarter because of mix shift towards higher-priced commodity activity and less volume tiering. Could you please unpack a little bit more on that volume tiering? And how could it potentially impact the RPC in 2025?

知道了。這非常有幫助。然後快速回顧第四季度的期貨和選擇權 RPC，由於組合轉向高價位商品活動且交易量分層減少，該數字從第三季的 0.666 美元上漲至 0.701 美元。能否進一步解釋一下卷分層？它將如何影響 2025 年的 RPC？

Lynne?

琳恩？

Yeah. So it's separate for each asset class and the products within that asset class. So it really depends on the volume that we're seeing flow through you will see a downward bias as you see large increases in volume and the opposite is true as you see decreases just because of that structure.

是的。因此，每個資產類別及其內的資產類別產品都是分開的。所以這實際上取決於我們看到的流通量，當你看到流通量大幅增加時，你會看到向下的偏差，而當你看到流通量減少時，情況正好相反，這僅僅是由於這種結構。

It's an important part of our structure because we do, as I mentioned earlier, we want to see that incremental trade and we do want to help our clients incent down to continue the trading activity. So it does provide a little bit of flex to our pricing structure, but that mix is really important. So you will see pricing on that individual tier -- individual asset class basis, it's not across the whole enterprise, if that helps.

這是我們結構的重要組成部分，因為正如我之前提到的，我們希望看到增量交易，並且我們確實希望幫助我們的客戶激勵他們繼續交易活動。所以它確實為我們的定價結構提供了一點彈性，但這種組合確實很重要。因此，您將看到基於單一層級（單一資產類別）的定價，而不是基於整個企業的定價，如果這有幫助的話。

And let me just add to that, Owen, I think -- Owen, just to add to that. Our philosophy around whether it's a full [Scottish] contract, a micro or mini. We look at the constituency who's participating in this. We don't look at just the notional value, which might have been a historical look at the way we did things 10, 12 years ago. So I think that can also have an influence on the RPC depending on how those products grow that are the people that are using them.

讓我補充一點，歐文，我想──歐文，只是想補充一點。我們的理念是關於它是一份完整的（蘇格蘭）合約、微型合約還是迷你合約。我們關注參與此事的選區。我們不只是看名義價值，這可能是對我們 10 年、12 年前做事方式的歷史回顧。所以我認為這也會對 RPC 產生影響，這取決於這些產品的成長以及使用這些產品的人。

So it's going to fluctuate, as Lynne said, but we feel, from a pricing standpoint, we're understanding the client better versus just looking at the product and saying, here's the value of the product, so we'll charge half, if it is half a contract. That doesn't make sense to me. It all depends on what's the use in the case for the participant.

因此，正如 Lynne 所說的，價格肯定會波動，但我們認為，從定價的角度來看，我們能夠更好地了解客戶，而不是僅僅看產品並說，這是產品的價值，因此，如果是半份合同，我們會收取一半的費用。我覺得這沒有意義。這一切都取決於該案件對於參與者有何用處。

Got it. Just wanted to understand better. So does that 1% to 1.5% capture that volume tiering? Or this is not the right way to think about that?

知道了。只是想更好地理解。那麼 1% 到 1.5% 是否體現了容量分層？或者說這不是正確的思考方式？

Yeah. So the assumption when we put forward the pricing estimates, it's assuming a similar mix and volume level as the prior year. So if you had changes in those elements, it would adjust that percentage, but we're basing it based on a similar trading experience as we saw in 2024, that would be the impact.

是的。因此，當我們提出定價估算時，假設產品組合和銷售量與前一年類似。因此，如果這些要素發生變化，就會調整該百分比，但我們是根據 2024 年類似的交易經驗來判斷的，這就是影響。

Got it. Thanks a lot.

知道了。多謝。

Kyle Voigt, KBW.

凱爾·沃格特（Kyle Voigt），KBW。

Maybe I just wanted to come back to the commodities discussion, but more specifically around the increases in activity by global multi-strat hedge funds that you mentioned in your prepared remarks. I guess can you just expand a bit on when you start to see those or a material pickup from that user base?

也許我只是想回到大宗商品的討論上，但更具體地說是圍繞您在準備好的發言中提到的全球多策略對沖基金活動的增加。我想您可以稍微詳細說明一下您何時開始看到這些內容或從該用戶群中獲得的材料嗎？

What specific products are you mostly seeing those users trade, and I'm just trying to get a sense of if this is cyclical because they're simply more gone with inflation and tariffs and macro volatility, or whether this is the start of a secular trend in growth from that user base?

您看到這些用戶主要交易哪些特定產品？

Thanks, Kyle. Derek?

謝謝，凱爾。德里克？

Yeah. Kyle, it's internally pointed on previous calls. 2024 was a record year for us on the commodity side, as Terry mentioned, not just on the revenue side across sell each of those asset classes but by penetration into particularly EMEA, but APAC and Julie mentioned a little bit of that as well. When you actually look at the fastest-growing client segment among that record generated activity in 2024. The fastest-growing client segment was that side community.

是的。凱爾，之前的電話中已經內部指出了這一點。正如 Terry 所提到的，2024 年對我們來說是大宗商品方面創紀錄的一年，不僅是透過銷售每種資產類別的收入，而且還透過滲透到特別是 EMEA 地區，而且還有 APAC，Julie 也提到了一點。當您實際查看 2024 年創紀錄活動中成長最快的客戶群。成長最快的客戶群是那邊的社區。

So this isn't a trend that we're seeing emerging. We saw this emerge over the last 18 months have accelerated into the back end of '24, helping us put up the record volumes and most importantly, the record revenues because that buy-side business tends to come at a higher RPC for us in already high RPC commodities products.

所以這不是我們所看到的新興趨勢。我們看到，在過去 18 個月中，這一趨勢在 24 年末加速發展，幫助我們創下了創紀錄的交易量，最重要的是，創下了創紀錄的收入，因為對於我們已經很高的 RPC 大宗商品產品而言，買方業務往往會帶來更高的 RPC。

So that's a trend that we've seen in place for the last 12 to 15 months. Given the movements in head count from places like bank trading desks, and commodities trading desk into multi-strat hedge funds globally, we see this as very much an investment by the buy-side community to build this out as an alternative income stream beyond just typical equities and fixed income.

這是我們在過去 12 到 15 個月中看到的趨勢。考慮到全球範圍內從銀行交易部門、商品交易部門等場所的員工數量轉向多層次對沖基金，我們認為這在很大程度上是買方社區的一項投資，旨在將其打造為除典型股票和固定收益之外的替代收入來源。

So we are seeing, I would say, some secular trends of growth and enhancement on buy-side serving client need who are seeking access to physical markets in a way that we haven't seen in a very, very long time. So I would say that that has been a significant component in growing our 34% growth in EMEA over the course of 2024.

因此，我想說，我們看到買方服務客戶需求出現了一些長期成長和增強的趨勢，這些客戶正在尋求以一種我們很長時間以來未曾見過的方式進入實體市場。因此，我想說，這是我們在 2024 年實現 EMEA 地區 34% 成長的重要組成部分。

And as I mentioned, that's in one of my earlier comments, our business kicking off into 2025 has started extremely strong with our overall business up in Ags up 32%, Energy 25%, and Metals up 14%. So we see the secular trend. And the only other point I would make inside of that is that -- and Julie mentioned this before, we're seeing an increased participation, not just on the future side, but an outsized growth in options as well.

正如我之前在評論中提到的，我們的業務在 2025 年起步非常強勁，農業業務整體成長 32%，能源業務成長 25%，金屬業務成長 14%。因此我們看到了長期趨勢。我唯一想說的另一點是——朱莉之前提到過，我們看到參與度有所提高，不僅是在未來方面，而且選擇也出現了大幅增長。

So that was an area we saw record growth in 2024, and we're seeing that kick off very strong in 2025. So we see this as additive to the overall customer mix that we have. Julie spent a lot of time working with myself and Tim and Mike making sure that the healthy ecosystems of each different kind of clients in our markets. Buy-side is crucial to come up alongside banks, commercial customers, and retail. And our client segments and sales teams bring to us ideas and opportunities for unmet need and that is a source of new product development.

因此，我們在 2024 年看到了該領域創紀錄的成長，我們看到該領域在 2025 年將呈現強勁成長。因此，我們認為此舉將增強我們整體的客戶結構。朱莉花了很多時間與我、蒂姆和麥克一起工作，確保我們市場中每種不同類型的客戶的生態系統都很健康。買方對於銀行、商業客戶和零售商的合作至關重要。我們的客戶群和銷售團隊為我們帶來了尚未滿足的需求的想法和機會，這是新產品開發的來源。

That's one of the reasons we built out a physical ethanol contract micro ags and short-dated options in ag as well. So we see that as secular continuing and continuing to trend from the last 12 months.

這也是我們建立實體乙醇合約微型農業和農業短期選擇權的原因之一。因此，我們認為這種趨勢將長期持續，並延續過去 12 個月的趨勢。

And Kyle, I just think that when you look at the world today, and what's going on, not just with inflation, but the amount of people that we need to continue to feed. These products, even though they come and they go, it appears from the front page they are always critical to each and every one of us as we go forward.

凱爾，我只是認為，當你觀察當今世界以及正在發生的事情時，不僅僅是通貨膨脹，還有我們需要繼續養活的人口數量。這些產品，儘管它們來了又去，但從頭版來看，它們對我們每個人前進的過程中始終至關重要。

So I don't know if I want to call them secular secular or whatever. I think that they're constant. And the question is, what page of the newspaper are they on? So we're going to have ebbs and flows, but these are products that we are very excited about. We have been for a lot of years, and I think they'll continue to go forward and people will need to use them.

所以我不知道是否要稱他們為世俗的世俗的或其他什麼。我認為它們是恆定的。問題是，他們在報紙的哪一頁？因此，我們會有起伏，但這些都是讓我們非常興奮的產品。我們已經存在很多年了，我認為它們會繼續前進，人們將需要使用它們。

That's great. And if I could just ask a quick follow up for Lynne. Really sorry, but just to be very clear on the pricing changes, the 2% to 2.5% pre-tax impact that you mentioned, that is an aggregate figure, inclusive of the transaction fees, correct?

那太棒了。我是否可以快速跟進 Lynne 的問題。我真的很抱歉，但為了清楚了解價格變化，您提到的 2% 到 2.5% 的稅前影響是一個總數字，包括交易費用，對嗎？

As well as market data and the collateral fee changes, correct.

以及市場數據和抵押費用的變化，正確。

Perfect. And then on the collateral fee changes, roughly what percentage of the non-cash collateral balances would that additional 10 basis point fee applied to today if no customers change their cash collateral allocations just for modeling?

完美的。然後，關於抵押費用的變化，如果沒有客戶僅僅為了建模而改變他們的現金抵押品分配，那麼額外的 10 個基點費用將大致適用於非現金抵押品餘額的百分之多少？

Yeah. So we can't break that out right now, Kyle, just given it's a customer-based decision. We'll continue to provide updates as we see the change roll through, but there's still a couple of months for them to optimize their positioning. If you look at the total cash collateral versus the total collateral, you're going to see that in the high 20s percent right now, but it's going to be based on the individual firms, not the aggregate.

是的。所以我們現在不能透露這個消息，凱爾，因為這是基於客戶的決定。隨著變化的不斷發生，我們將繼續提供更新，但他們仍然需要幾個月的時間來優化他們的定位。如果您將現金抵押品總額與抵押品總額進行比較，您會發現目前該比例高達 20% 以上，但這是基於單一公司，而不是總體。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Ken Worthington, JPMorgan.

摩根大通的肯‧沃辛頓。

This is Madeline Daleiden on for Ken. Thanks for taking our question. May you please talk about BrokerTec and the updated market share trends there with leadership likely moving to Washington at FENICS? Do you feel that this puts BrokerTec in a better or worse position in the coming years to drive higher market share?

這是 Madeline Daleiden 為 Ken 主持的節目。感謝您回答我們的問題。您能否談談 BrokerTec 及其最新的市場份額趨勢，FENICS 的領導層可能會遷往華盛頓？您是否認為這會使 BrokerTec 在未來幾年內處於更好或更壞的地位來提高市場份額？

Thanks, Madeline. I will ask Mike Dennis to address that.

謝謝，瑪德琳。我將請麥克丹尼斯來解決這個問題。

I appreciate the question on BrokerTec. When we benchmark ourselves for market share around BrokerTec, we focus on the FINRA TRACE number. Our share versus trade fell slightly in Q2 is down about 1.2%. January is much better with ADV up 29% month over month, and market share ticking up about 0.5% versus December despite volatility remaining near recent lows.

我很感謝 BrokerTec 的問題。當我們評估 BrokerTec 的市佔率時，我們關注的是 FINRA TRACE 數字。我們第二季的貿易份額略有下降，下降了約 1.2%。1 月的情況要好得多，日均交易量環比增長了 29%，儘管波動性仍接近近期低點，但市佔率較 12 月上漲了約 0.5%。

I think one thing that's important to highlight around BrokerTec is BrokerTec is more than just a central limit order book for US treasuries. BrokerTec's a strategic asset of the CME Group, and it helps us drive our core futures and options business. Overall revenues for BrokerTec were up 7% in Q4.

我認為關於 BrokerTec 需要強調的一點是，BrokerTec 不僅僅是美國國債的中央限價訂單簿。BrokerTec 是芝加哥商品交易所集團的策略性資產，它幫助我們推動核心期貨和選擇權業務。BrokerTec 第四季總營收成長了 7%。

We have a strong business in both the US and EU repo where we saw record ADV in 2024 across the repo complex. So additionally, we've had some solid client adoption in some of our newer trading modalities, which we launched via our relative value curve offerings, which include cash spreads and cash butterfly spreads.

我們在美國和歐盟回購市場都有強勁的業務，2024 年整個回購市場的每日平均交易量都創下了歷史新高。此外，我們透過相對價值曲線產品推出的一些較新的交易模式得到了客戶的廣泛採用，其中包括現金價差和現金蝶式價差。

And then lastly, one thing I want to focus on as it relates to BrokerTec is when the clearing mandate happens, we feel that BrokerTec can provide benefits as clients adapt to this new regulatory landscape. So I hope that answers your question.

最後，關於 BrokerTec 我想重點關注的一件事是，當清算任務完成時，我們認為 BrokerTec 可以在客戶適應新的監管環境時帶來好處。我希望這能回答你的問題。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Simon Clinch, Redburn Atlantic.

西蒙‧克林奇 (Simon Clinch)，雷德伯恩大西洋公司 (Redburn Atlantic)。

A lot of them have been answered already, but I was wondering if you could talk about the market data business. you mentioned that there's -- I think it was 3.5% pricing taken already this year. How should we think about the breakdown of volume growth here and growth going forward given it's been consistently in that kind of high single-digit range for some time now?

其中許多問題已經得到解答，但我想知道您是否可以談論市場數據業務。你提到——我認為今年的定價已經是 3.5%。鑑於目前銷售成長在一段時間內一直保持較高的個位數，我們應該如何看待目前的銷售成長細分以及未來的成長？

Julie, do you want to address that?

朱莉，你想解決這個問題嗎？

Yeah. Thanks for the question. The data business we had a very strong quarter, right, at $182 million revenue up another 9%. And that was driven, I would say, by a couple of different factors. Certainly, we had a price increase that 3.5% took effect throughout 2024, but also that we're seeing interest in professional subscribers and access to our real-time data. And that is contributing to the growth of the business as well as that non-professional component that I talked about earlier as well as the drive data business.

是的。謝謝你的提問。我們數據業務本季表現非常強勁，營收達到 1.82 億美元，成長 9%。我想說，這是由幾個不同的因素造成的。當然，我們的價格上漲了 3.5%，並在 2024 年全年生效，但我們也看到專業訂閱者對我們的即時數據存取的興趣。這有助於業務的成長以及我之前談到的非專業部分以及驅動數據業務的成長。

As we haven't talked about the drive data business, just the detail there is that we continue to see increased use of our data by institutional clients as they look to create more of their own financial products and things like indices and benchmarks for their end customers. So we're looking at some new things in terms of enterprise drive data license that really give clients more flexibility in that regard.

由於我們還沒有談論驅動數據業務，但細節是，我們繼續看到機構客戶越來越多地使用我們的數據，因為他們希望為最終客戶創建更多自己的金融產品以及指數和基準等。因此，我們正在研究企業驅動器資料授權方面的一些新事物，這些新事物確實為客戶提供了更多靈活性。

And then we're also continuing to evaluate what additional analytic offerings we can provide. So a lot of good innovation there across the entire suite that I think really bodes well for a strong outlook there as well. And as Lynne mentioned, we have another 3.5% of pricing increases that took effect on January 1 for the core business.

然後我們也將繼續評估我們可以提供哪些額外的分析服務。所以整個套件中有很多很好的創新，我認為這確實預示著強勁的前景。正如 Lynne 所提到的，我們的核心業務價格將從 1 月 1 日起再次上調 3.5%。

Great. That's really useful. And just as a follow up, maybe this is more of a housekeeping question for you, Lynne. Could you give us the latest update on the Google cloud spend for 2025 and what the spend was in fourth-quarter '24? And also just give us a sense of the priorities for that investment. You've already talked about the marketing element of going after new retail customers. But I was wondering if you could flesh that out a little bit more for us.

偉大的。這真的很有用。作為後續問題，Lynne，這對您來說可能更像是一個常規問題。您能否向我們提供有關 2025 年谷歌雲端運算支出的最新更新以及 2024 年第四季的支出？請讓我們了解一下該投資的優先事項。您已經談到了追逐新零售客戶的行銷要素。但我想知道您是否可以為我們進一步詳細說明。

Sure. So in the fourth quarter, Simon, the total spend was about $22 million on the migration. That was about $18 million within technology and about $4 million within professional services. In the total for the year to about $85 million. Within our guidance for 2025, it's including $115 million related to the migration that will skew a bit more towards the technology side versus the professional services, just given where we are in our migration timeline.

當然。因此，西蒙，第四季的遷移總支出約為 2,200 萬美元。其中技術領域約有 1,800 萬美元，專業服務領域約 400 萬美元。全年總額約 8500 萬美元。在我們對 2025 年的指導中，其中包括 1.15 億美元與遷移相關的資金，考慮到我們所處的遷移時間表，這些資金將更偏向技術方面而不是專業服務。

The focus for this year is continuing to migrate some of the non-latency-sensitive applications. So we have a number of our clearing systems moved our data systems. We're continuing that progression as we move through 2025 and continuing to work with our partner on the opportunities for building out additional capabilities and services for the client base to use that data in a more effective way.

今年的重點是繼續遷移一些非延遲敏感的應用程式。因此，我們的許多清算系統都遷移到了資料系統。在邁向 2025 年之際，我們將繼續這一進程，並繼續與我們的合作夥伴共同努力，為客戶群建立額外的功能和服務，以便以更有效的方式使用這些數據。

Okay. Great. Thank you very much.

好的。偉大的。非常感謝。

And that was our final question for today. I will now turn the call back over to management for closing remarks.

這是我們今天的最後一個問題。現在我將把電話轉回給管理階層，請他們作結束語。

We want to thank you all for joining us today. We appreciate you very much. Look forward to any follow-up questions you may have and look forward to talking to you next quarter. Thank you very kindly. You all stay safe.

我們感謝大家今天的參與。我們非常感激您。期待您可能有的任何後續問題，並期待下個季度與您交談。非常感謝。大家保重。

Thank you all for your participation on today's conference call. At this time, all parties may disconnect.

感謝大家參加今天的電話會議。此時各方均可斷開連線。