芝加哥商業交易所 (CME) 2022 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Greetings, and welcome to the CME Group Fourth Quarter and Year-End 2022 Earnings Call. (Operator Instructions) As a reminder, this conference is being recorded Wednesday, February 8, 2023.

大家好，歡迎來到芝商所 2022 年第四季度和年終財報電話會議。 （操作員說明）提醒一下，本次會議將於 2023 年 2 月 8 日星期三錄製。

I would now like to turn the conference over to Adam Minick. Please go ahead.

我現在想將會議轉交給 Adam Minick。請繼續。

Good morning, and I hope you're all doing well today. We will be discussing CME Group's Fourth Quarter and Full Year 2022 Financial Results. I will start with the safe harbor language, then I'll turn it over to Terry and team for brief remarks followed by your questions. Other members of our management team will also participate in the Q&A session.

早上好，我希望你們今天一切都好。我們將討論芝商所第四季度和 2022 年全年財務業績。我將從安全港語言開始，然後我將把它交給特里和團隊進行簡短的評論，然後是您的問題。我們管理團隊的其他成員也將參加問答環節。

Statements made on this call and in the other reference documents on our website that are not historical facts are forward-looking statements. These statements are not guarantees of future performance. They involve risks, uncertainties and assumptions that are difficult to predict. Therefore, actual outcomes and results may differ materially from what is expressed or implied in any statement. Detailed information about factors that may affect our performance can be found in the filings with the SEC, which are on our website. Lastly, on the final page of the earnings release, you will see a reconciliation between GAAP and non-GAAP measures.

關於此次電話會議和我們網站上其他參考文件的非歷史事實的陳述是前瞻性陳述。這些陳述不是對未來表現的保證。它們涉及難以預測的風險、不確定性和假設。因此，實際結果和結果可能與任何聲明中明示或暗示的內容存在重大差異。有關可能影響我們業績的因素的詳細信息，請參閱我們網站上向美國證券交易委員會提交的文件。最後，在收益發布的最後一頁，您將看到 GAAP 和非 GAAP 指標之間的對賬。

With that, I'll turn the call over to Terry.

有了這個，我會把電話轉給特里。

Thank you, Adam, and thank you all for joining us this morning. We released our executive commentary earlier today, which provided extensive details on the fourth quarter of 2022. I'm going to start with just a few high-level comments regarding the year, and then John will summarize our financial results, and Lynne will speak to our expense guidance for '23. In addition to John and Lynne, as Adam said, we have other members of our management team present to answer questions after the prepared remarks.

謝謝你，亞當，感謝大家今天早上加入我們。我們今天早些時候發布了我們的執行評論，其中提供了 2022 年第四季度的廣泛細節。我將從今年的一些高層評論開始，然後 John 將總結我們的財務業績，Lynne 將發言到我們 23 年的費用指南。除了 John 和 Lynne，正如 Adam 所說，我們還有管理團隊的其他成員在準備好的發言後回答問題。

2022 was the best year in CME Group's history with record average daily volume of 23.3 million contracts, up 19% from '21. The growth was led by our financial products, which finished the year up 25% to a record average daily volume of 19.5 million contracts. Options average daily volume across all asset classes also set a record with ADV of 4.1 million contracts, up 23% versus last year. And finally, our non-U.S. ADV increased to a record 6.3 million contracts.

2022 年是芝商所歷史上最好的一年，日均交易量達到創紀錄的 2330 萬份合約，比 21 年增長 19%。增長是由我們的金融產品帶動的，該產品全年增長 25%，達到創紀錄的平均每日交易量 1,950 萬份合約。所有資產類別的期權日均交易量也創下了 410 萬份合約的 ADV 記錄，比去年增長 23%。最後，我們的非美國 ADV 增加到創紀錄的 630 萬份合同。

Throughout 2022, we continued our efforts on the LIBOR transition. We collaborated with the industry and the market participants to shift trading behavior, order flow and open interest to SOFR. And as a result, we are beginning 2023 with the SOFR's futures and options as the leading tools for hedging short-term interest rates, with deep liquidity supporting a wide range of strategies across the forward curve.

整個 2022 年，我們繼續致力於 LIBOR 過渡。我們與行業和市場參與者合作，將交易行為、訂單流和持倉量轉移到 SOFR。因此，我們從 2023 年開始將 SOFR 的期貨和期權作為對沖短期利率的主要工具，深度流動性支持遠期曲線上的廣泛策略。

Customer demand continued to drive our industry-leading products and services innovation throughout the year. We enhanced our Micro product suite with additional contracts. And in aggregate, the Micros contributed nearly 3.5 million contracts ADV to the overall record activity. During the year, we further invested in our S&P Dow Jones Indices joint venture to expand its offerings to include leading fixed income and credit indices. Our joint ventures and investments continued to produce meaningful results for CME Group. For 2022, on an adjusted basis, these investments have contributed nearly $350 million or 9% of our pretax income.

全年，客戶需求繼續推動我們行業領先的產品和服務創新。我們通過附加合同增強了我們的微型產品套件。總的來說，Micros 為整體創紀錄的活動貢獻了近 350 萬份合同 ADV。年內，我們進一步投資標普道瓊斯指數合資企業，以擴大其產品範圍，將領先的固定收益和信用指數納入其中。我們的合資企業和投資繼續為芝商所帶來有意義的成果。到 2022 年，在調整後的基礎上，這些投資貢獻了近 3.5 億美元，占我們稅前收入的 9%。

2022 also was a fundamental year for our Google partnership. We built out the cloud platform and successfully migrated some early application. '23 will be about accelerating our application migration, including launching data products in the cloud. We have an aggressive migration plan for '23 and look forward to reporting our accomplishments throughout the year.

2022 年也是我們與 Google 合作的重要一年。我們搭建了雲平台，成功遷移了一些早期的應用。 '23 將加速我們的應用程序遷移，包括在雲中啟動數據產品。我們為 23 年制定了積極的遷移計劃，並期待在全年報告我們的成就。

Risk management will continue to be critical for our customers as we move into 2023 with higher cost of doing business in general and uncertainty persisting across all of our asset classes. We continue to focus on what we can control, innovating and offering market participants meaningful capital and operational efficiencies across a diverse and globally relevant product set. So far this year, volume is averaging approximately 23 million contracts per day, near the average for all of 2022, and our focus will continue to be on growing in the short term while also positioning the business for long-term sustained growth.

隨著我們進入 2023 年，風險管理將繼續對我們的客戶至關重要，因為總體經營成本更高，我們所有資產類別的不確定性持續存在。我們繼續專注於我們可以控制的領域，通過多樣化和全球相關的產品集進行創新並為市場參與者提供有意義的資本和運營效率。今年到目前為止，成交量平均約為每天 2300 萬份合約，接近 2022 年全年的平均水平，我們的重點將繼續放在短期增長上，同時也為業務的長期持續增長做好準備。

With that, I'll turn it over to John, and we look forward to your questions.

有了這個，我會把它交給約翰，我們期待著你的問題。

Thanks, Terry. Financially, 2022 was a record year for CME Group with adjusted double-digit revenue and earnings growth. Driven by CME's record annual trading volume, 2022 revenues were $5 billion, up 11% when adjusting for OSTTRA, which was launched in September of 2021. Our annual adjusted expenses, excluding license fees and before the impacts of our cloud migration, were approximately $1.425 billion, which was $25 million below our annual guidance. Our adjusted operating margins for the year expanded to 64.7%, and adjusted net income was up 20%. For the year, our incremental cash costs associated with our migration to the cloud were $30 million and in line with our expectations.

謝謝，特里。在財務方面，2022 年是 CME Group 創紀錄的一年，調整後的收入和盈利增長達到兩位數。在 CME 創紀錄的年度交易量的推動下，2022 年的收入為 50 億美元，根據 2021 年 9 月推出的 OSTTRA 進行調整後增長 11%。我們的年度調整後支出（不包括許可費和雲遷移的影響）約為 1.425 美元億美元，比我們的年度指導低 2500 萬美元。我們今年調整後的營業利潤率擴大到 64.7%，調整後的淨收入增長了 20%。這一年，我們與雲遷移相關的增量現金成本為 3000 萬美元，符合我們的預期。

Turning to the fourth quarter. CME generated more than $1.2 billion in revenue with average daily volume up nearly 6.5% compared to the same period last year. Market data revenue was up nearly 8% from last year to $153 million. Expenses were very carefully managed and on an adjusted basis were $464 million for the quarter and $382 million, excluding license fees and approximately $9 million in cloud migration costs. CME had an adjusted effective tax rate of 22.8%, which resulted in adjusted net income attributable to CME Group of $698 million, up 15% from the fourth quarter last year and an adjusted EPS attributable to common shareholders of $1.92.

轉到第四季度。 CME 創造了超過 12 億美元的收入，與去年同期相比，日均交易量增長了近 6.5%。市場數據收入比去年增長近 8%，達到 1.53 億美元。支出得到了非常謹慎的管理，在調整後的基礎上，本季度支出為 4.64 億美元和 3.82 億美元，不包括許可費和大約 900 萬美元的雲遷移成本。芝商所調整後的有效稅率為 22.8%，導致調整後歸屬於芝商所集團的淨收入為 6.98 億美元，比去年第四季度增長 15%，調整後歸屬於普通股股東的每股收益為 1.92 美元。

Capital expenditures for the fourth quarter were approximately $23 million. CME declared over $3 billion of dividends during '22, including the annual variable dividend of $1.6 billion. And cash at the end of the quarter was approximately $2.8 billion. Finally, in November, we announced the adjustments, which became effective February 1. Assuming similar trading patterns as 2022, the fee adjustments would increase futures and options transaction revenue in the range of 4% to 5%.

第四季度的資本支出約為 2300 萬美元。 CME 在 22 世紀宣布了超過 30 億美元的股息，其中包括 16 億美元的年度可變股息。本季度末的現金約為 28 億美元。最後，我們在 11 月宣布了調整，該調整於 2 月 1 日生效。假設交易模式與 2022 年相似，費用調整將使期貨和期權交易收入增加 4% 至 5%。

In summary, 2022 was the best year financially for CME Group. We served our customers well, successfully transitioned the majority of the volume of our LIBOR-based benchmarks to SOFR, executed on our cloud migration strategy, all while managing our costs very effectively.

總之，2022 年是芝商所財務狀況最好的一年。我們為客戶提供了良好的服務，成功地將大部分基於 LIBOR 的基準轉換為 SOFR，執行我們的雲遷移戰略，同時非常有效地管理我們的成本。

With that, I'll turn over the call to Lynne to discuss CME Group's 2023 guidance.

有了這個，我將把電話轉給 Lynne 來討論 CME Group 的 2023 年指導。

Thanks, John. We expect total adjusted operating expenses, excluding license fees, to be approximately $1.49 billion for 2023. Our guidance reflects our continued focus on cost discipline, which will moderate the impacts of inflation and a full year of normalized travel and in-person events.

謝謝，約翰。我們預計 2023 年調整後的運營費用總額（不包括許可費）約為 14.9 億美元。我們的指引反映了我們對成本紀律的持續關注，這將減輕通貨膨脹和全年正常旅行和麵對面活動的影響。

In addition to our core expense guidance, we expect the investment related to the Google partnership and our cloud migration to be in the range of $60 million in expense, offset by a $20 million decrease in capital expenditures, bringing our incremental net cash cost for the migration to approximately $40 million for the year. Total capital expenditures net of leasehold improvement allowances are expected to be approximately $100 million, and the adjusted effective tax rate should come in between 23% and 24%.

除了我們的核心費用指導外，我們預計與穀歌合作夥伴關係和我們的雲遷移相關的投資將在 6000 萬美元的費用範圍內，被資本支出減少 2000 萬美元所抵消，從而使我們的增量淨現金成本增加年遷移到大約 4000 萬美元。扣除租賃物改善津貼後的總資本支出預計約為 1 億美元，調整後的有效稅率應在 23% 至 24% 之間。

We'd now like to open up the call for your questions. Thank you.

我們現在想打開您的問題的電話。謝謝。

(Operator Instructions) Our first question is coming from the line of Rich Repetto with Piper Sandler.

（操作員說明）我們的第一個問題來自 Rich Repetto 和 Piper Sandler 的系列。

As we start the year, Terry, I just wanted to get -- stay broad and get your outlook on volumes for 2023, given that you were so positive last year, and they certainly came through on financial products. But just seeing what your outlook -- and we know, no one gets it perfect right all the time. But anyway, the outlook on volumes, your outlook.

特里，在我們開始新的一年時，我只想保持廣泛，並了解你對 2023 年銷量的展望，因為你去年非常積極，而且它們肯定會在金融產品上實現。但是只要看看你的前景——我們知道，沒有人總是能完美無缺。但無論如何，銷量的前景，你的前景。

Yes. Thanks, Rich. I think last year, when I made the comments that I did, I think we saw the reflection in the marketplace by CME having the biggest year in its history. And I think that's because of what was setting up, whether it was geopolitically and just other fundamental factors in the market. Whether it's the price or rates at a given time, price for certain products, you could see that the market was setting up for what I thought was going to be a pretty explosive year. Now it's really difficult to predict future volumes, as you know. So I'm not going to try.

是的。謝謝，里奇。我認為去年，當我發表評論時，我認為我們看到了 CME 在其歷史上表現最好的一年在市場上的反映。我認為這是因為正在建立的東西，無論是地緣政治因素還是市場中的其他基本因素。無論是特定時間的價格還是費率，某些產品的價格，你都可以看到市場正在為我認為將是爆炸性的一年做好準備。如您所知，現在真的很難預測未來的銷量。所以我不打算嘗試。

I will make the reference, as I said in my prepared remarks, that we're starting off in January with ADV roughly around the same as we ended last year, 22 million, 23 million contracts per day, which is a pretty exciting start to the beginning of the year. So it's really hard for me to predict the broader -- the balance of the 11 months we have left in this year.

正如我在準備好的發言中所說，我將提到，我們從 1 月份開始的 ADV 與去年年底大致相同，每天 2200 萬、2300 萬份合約，這是一個非常令人興奮的開始年初。所以我真的很難預測更廣泛的 - 我們今年剩下的 11 個月的餘額。

People talk about the age of depressions, age of recessions. I think it's the age of uncertainty, Rich. And now the question is, what has that trend played into? So I really don't know. But I think, again, we are here positioned, as I said in my prepared remarks, to give the offsets, to give the efficiencies for people to manage and mitigate that risk. It's really hard to predict what's going to happen. The geopolitical events could be stacking up like we've never seen before. The debt ceiling issue, I mean, I've even had internal, now I don't want to say arguments, debates with my own team about what does it mean because we've always had a debt ceiling that's always been satisfied. We have a Congress like I've never seen in the history. I'm not so sure it's going to be as easy as people believe that they can negotiate a debt ceiling agreement. So that will be interesting coming into Q2 and to the summer months to see what happens when that deadline arises where the Fed and the treasury can no longer move money around to pay the country's bill.

人們談論蕭條時代、衰退時代。我認為這是一個不確定的時代，里奇。現在的問題是，這種趨勢發揮了什麼作用？所以我真的不知道。但我認為，正如我在準備好的發言中所說，我們在這裡的定位是提供抵消，為人們提供管理和減輕風險的效率。真的很難預測會發生什麼。地緣政治事件可能會像我們以前從未見過的那樣堆積起來。債務上限問題，我的意思是，我什至有內部的，現在我不想說爭論，與我自己的團隊辯論這意味著什麼，因為我們一直有一個總是滿足的債務上限。我們有一個我在歷史上從未見過的國會。我不太確定這會像人們認為他們可以通過談判達成債務上限協議那樣容易。因此，進入第二季度和夏季幾個月，看看當美聯儲和財政部無法再轉移資金來支付該國賬單的最後期限時會發生什麼，將會很有趣。

So I think that's got a big factor into it. We still have the Ukraine-Russian conflict, which seems to be not going away any time soon. So I still think risk management is going to be at the forefront of people's minds. And with the increase in the interest rates that we've seen over the last year, people that are managing money having to reissue new additional debt, they're going to need to lay off that risk. And I think our product suite lends to that. So I think there's a lot of interesting factors in there. What does that translate into volume is a tough one to come up at the end equation.

所以我認為這是一個很大的因素。我們還有烏克蘭與俄羅斯的衝突，似乎不會很快消失。所以我仍然認為風險管理將成為人們關注的焦點。隨著我們在去年看到的利率上升，管理資金的人不得不重新發行新的額外債務，他們將需要降低這種風險。我認為我們的產品套件可以做到這一點。所以我認為其中有很多有趣的因素。這轉化為體積是什麼很難在最後的等式中得出。

Our next question is coming from the line of Dan Fannon with Jefferies.

我們的下一個問題來自 Dan Fannon 與 Jefferies 的對話。

Wanted to follow up on the pricing, the 4% to 5% increase that you mentioned, John. That's, I think, above what the typical 1% to 2% we've seen from you in the past. So maybe a little bit more detail behind that.

想要跟進定價，約翰，你提到的 4% 到 5% 的增長。我認為，這高於我們過去從您那裡看到的典型 1% 到 2%。所以這背後可能有更多細節。

And then also, on the nontransactional side, as you think about maybe market data, is there pricing potential power there? And as you think about this year, any changes that we should be aware of?

然後，在非交易方面，當你考慮市場數據時，那裡是否存在定價潛力？想想今年，我們應該注意哪些變化？

Sure, Dan. Thanks for the question. Let me back off and take a look at all the kind of pricing changes and adjustments that are going to impact 2023. As I indicated in my prepared remarks, the transaction fees have been adjusted, and we made adjustments across all of our asset classes in our futures business. We take a very careful and targeted approach with the objective of not impacting volumes. And as I said, assuming similar trading patterns as last year, the increase would be in the range of 4% to 5%. The impact of financial products and commodity products each is an increase of about 4% to 5%. So about 4% to 5% each of our financials and to our commodity product sets. The impact took effect on February 1. So you see 2/3 of the impact in the first quarter and a full quarter impact in Q2. So that's related to transaction fees.

當然，丹。謝謝你的問題。讓我退後一步，看看將影響 2023 年的所有定價變化和調整。正如我在準備好的發言中指出的那樣，交易費用已經調整，我們在 2023 年對所有資產類別進行了調整我們的期貨業務。我們採取非常謹慎和有針對性的方法，目的是不影響數量。正如我所說，假設與去年類似的交易模式，增幅將在 4% 到 5% 之間。金融產品和商品產品的影響各是增長4%到5%左右。因此，我們的財務和商品產品集各佔 4% 到 5%。影響於 2 月 1 日生效。因此，您會看到第一季度影響的 2/3 和第二季度的整個季度影響。所以這與交易費用有關。

So let's look at market data. Beginning January 1, we had an inflation adjustment to our market data subscriber licenses, which is also in the range of 4%, assuming similar conditions as 2022. In addition, we've seen the completion of our very successful SOFR First for Options initiative. That had about an $11 million in fee waivers, which lowered revenue, and $8 million in increased license fees in 2022 that we will not have in 2023. So a number of adjustments across our revenue set. I think as we look at it, we created a lot of value for our customers and felt that this was appropriate to do.

那麼讓我們看看市場數據。從 1 月 1 日開始，假設條件與 2022 年相似，我們對市場數據訂戶許可進行了通貨膨脹調整，也在 4% 的範圍內。此外，我們已經完成了非常成功的 SOFR First for Options 計劃.那有大約 1100 萬美元的費用減免，這降低了收入，並且在 2022 年增加了 800 萬美元的許可費用，而我們在 2023 年將不會有。因此，我們對收入集進行了一些調整。我認為在我們看來，我們為客戶創造了很多價值，並且覺得這樣做是合適的。

Great. And so just to clarify on the market data, you had an $11 million drag in revenue last year that should normalize, plus a 4% pricing increase?

偉大的。因此，為了澄清市場數據，你去年的收入減少了 1100 萬美元，應該正常化，再加上 4% 的價格上漲？

No, I'm sorry. That was SOFR. That was our SOFR option -- SOFR First for Options program that impacted our transaction fees. That was not included in the 4% to 5% that I just mentioned. This was in addition to that.

不，我很抱歉。那是 SOFR。那是我們的 SOFR 選項——SOFR First for Options program 影響了我們的交易費用。這不包括在我剛才提到的4%到5%之內。除此之外。

Our next question is coming from the line of Gautam Sawant with Credit Suisse.

我們的下一個問題來自瑞士信貸的 Gautam Sawant。

Can you please provide us with more details on the nonoperating income outlook? Can you also provide a breakout of investment income, how cash within the clearing house is trending, and how you think the pace of clearinghouse cash balances could move over the next 12 months? And where does the noncash collateral stand?

您能否向我們提供更多有關非營業收入前景的詳細信息？您能否提供投資收入的突破、票據交換所內現金的趨勢，以及您認為票據交換所現金餘額的步伐在未來 12 個月內會如何變化？非現金抵押品在哪裡？

Sure, Gautam. This is Lynne. I'll take that. If you look at the nonoperating income in the quarter, it increased by about $8 million versus the third quarter. That was driven partially by an increase in the earnings on the cash at the clearinghouse. That was up about $9 million to $95 million for the quarter. We saw average balances relatively steady at $117 billion, largely the same as what we saw last quarter. What we did see is an increase in the returns from 29 basis points to 32 basis points.

當然，高塔姆。這是琳恩。我會接受的。如果你看一下本季度的營業外收入，它比第三季度增加了約 800 萬美元。這在一定程度上是由於票據交換所現金收入的增加。該季度增長了約 900 萬美元至 9500 萬美元。我們看到平均餘額相對穩定，為 1170 億美元，與上一季度的情況基本相同。我們確實看到的是回報率從 29 個基點增加到 32 個基點。

Now we didn't change the keep that we have on the funds held at the Fed, but what we did do is look to optimize our returns using repo markets and other short-term deposits. We also saw an increase in the returns on our corporate cash. That was up $12 million in the quarter to $23 million. These 2 increases were offset slightly by decreases in the equity and nonconsolidated subsidiaries. Those were down $13 million in total. That included a $4 million onetime gain that we saw in Q3 related to the S&P JV.

現在我們沒有改變我們在美聯儲持有的資金，但我們所做的是尋求利用回購市場和其他短期存款來優化我們的回報。我們還看到公司現金回報率有所提高。這一季度增加了 1200 萬美元，達到 2300 萬美元。這 2 項增加被股權和非合併子公司的減少所抵消。這些總共減少了 1300 萬美元。其中包括我們在第三季度看到的與標準普爾合資企業相關的 400 萬美元一次性收益。

In terms of the cash and noncash collateral, it's difficult to predict obviously where it will go going forward, but I can provide a little more detail on what we've seen so far in this quarter to date. As I mentioned, the cash balances were relatively flat at $117 billion in the last 2 quarters. To date, through February 6, our average balances are at $113.7 billion.

就現金和非現金抵押品而言，很難明確預測未來的發展方向，但我可以提供更多關於本季度迄今為止所見情況的詳細信息。正如我所提到的，過去兩個季度的現金餘額相對持平，為 1170 億美元。迄今為止，截至 2 月 6 日，我們的平均餘額為 1137 億美元。

Does that answer your question?

這是否回答你的問題？

Yes. And just where does the noncash collateral stand?

是的。非現金抵押品在哪裡？

Sure. So we saw in Q3, it was at $94.9 billion. It was at $89.7 billion for Q4. And quarter-to-date, we are at $90.1 billion.

當然。所以我們在第三季度看到的是 949 億美元。第四季度為 897 億美元。本季度至今，我們的收入為 901 億美元。

And just to go back to the clearinghouse question for a second, I think it's really important to note, we strategically did not increase our keep because we knew there was alternatives that people could park their money in versus keeping it in our clearinghouse. That actually beared a tremendous amount of fruit by us making that decision because we were able to keep the numbers that Lynne referenced and continue to bring in the additional revenue that we may not have if we tried to increase our take and people would have gone to alternative investments.

再回到票據交換所的問題，我認為值得注意的是，我們在戰略上並沒有增加我們的保留，因為我們知道人們可以將錢存入而不是將其存放在我們的票據交換所中。我們做出這個決定實際上帶來了巨大的成果，因為我們能夠保留林恩提到的數字，並繼續帶來額外的收入，如果我們試圖增加收入，人們就會去另類投資。

Our next question is coming from the line of Chris Allen with Citigroup.

我們的下一個問題來自花旗集團的 Chris Allen。

I was wondering if you can provide a little bit more granularity around market data, maybe just some of the products rolling out with the addition of Google. And when -- this year, you saw the year-over-year increase driven by some price increases and new demand in Term SOFR and [more]. So maybe you could give us a little bit of color there just in terms of how that kind of breaks down.

我想知道您是否可以提供更詳細的市場數據，也許只是一些隨著 Google 的加入而推出的產品。而當 - 今年，您看到了一些價格上漲和長期 SOFR 和 [更多] 的新需求推動的同比增長。所以也許你可以就這種分解的方式給我們一些顏色。

And just on the Google migration, I thought that was $30 million in annual costs, and now you're talking about incremental $60 million. I'm just wondering, what's this incremental cost related to just in terms of is it more migration or is it new product developments? Any color there would be helpful.

就 Google 遷移而言，我認為每年的成本是 3000 萬美元，而現在你談論的是增加的 6000 萬美元。我只是想知道，這種增量成本與更多遷移或新產品開發有關嗎？那裡的任何顏色都會有所幫助。

Yes. Thanks, Chris. We're going to let Lynne talk about the cost of the Google migration because I think -- I'll make sure we all say the same numbers, and then we'll turn it over to Julie to talk about the data.

是的。謝謝，克里斯。我們將讓 Lynne 談談 Google 遷移的成本，因為我認為——我會確保我們都說出相同的數字，然後我們會把它交給 Julie 來討論數據。

Sure. So on the cost side, in 2022, we did see $30 million in expense, in line with our guidance. The guidance for 2023 is $60 million in expense. Now we will see an offset to that as we are seeing a decline in the capital expenditures related to capital refreshes that are no longer required. So we have about a $20 million offset that we are seeing in CapEx. But the $60 million in expense guidance will be approximately evenly split between professional fees and technology fees for this year.

當然。因此，在成本方面，到 2022 年，我們確實看到了 3000 萬美元的支出，這符合我們的指導意見。 2023 年的指導意見是 6000 萬美元的支出。現在我們將看到抵消，因為我們看到與不再需要的資本更新相關的資本支出下降。因此，我們在資本支出中看到了大約 2000 萬美元的抵消。但 6000 萬美元的費用指導將在今年的專業費用和技術費用之間大致平均分配。

Julie?

朱麗葉？

Yes. So market data certainly was -- had a very strong quarter, again, in the fourth quarter. We were up another 8% year-on-year. And the increase is due primarily to both the value of our data, the new products that we are introducing and also the fee adjustments that we made back in January of 2022. And we also are seeing throughout the year favorable performance both in our derived data area in Term SOFR licensing, as you mentioned, and also just organic across our professional subscriber devices and also nondisplay.

是的。因此，市場數據肯定是——在第四季度再次有一個非常強勁的季度。我們同比又增長了 8%。增長主要是由於我們數據的價值、我們推出的新產品以及我們在 2022 年 1 月進行的費用調整。而且我們在全年的派生數據中也看到了良好的表現正如您提到的，在 Term SOFR 許可中的區域，並且在我們的專業訂閱者設備和非顯示設備中都是有機的。

And I'd say the one thing as it relates back to our new products and also our work with Google is we know that we have very valuable data, and we know being able to produce more of that data and analytics and putting that in the cloud is going to be really what our clients are asking for. And so we're highly focused on looking at new ways to develop that with our partners at Google. We've got a number of deep dives underway with them on the innovation front, including things on data analytics, AI, ML, new APIs and also new ways to help our clients understand the data and analytics around their risk management.

我想說一件事，因為它與我們的新產品以及我們與穀歌的合作有關，我們知道我們擁有非常有價值的數據，我們知道能夠產生更多的數據和分析並將其放入雲將真正滿足我們客戶的需求。因此，我們非常專注於尋找新的方法來與我們在谷歌的合作夥伴一起開發它。我們在創新前沿與他們進行了多次深入研究，包括數據分析、人工智能、機器學習、新 API 以及幫助我們的客戶了解圍繞其風險管理的數據和分析的新方法。

So we have already begun to launch a number of those products. Those began to be rolled out in Q4, and some of it is also just our new product operating model that we're using. And so we're seeing an increased velocity in which we can put these products out, so things like in our data mine area. Some of our new benchmarks and indices are also being created through that. And so you'll continue to see a rollout of that.

所以我們已經開始推出一些這樣的產品。這些在第四季度開始推出，其中一些也是我們正在使用的新產品運營模式。所以我們看到我們可以更快地推出這些產品，比如我們的數據挖掘區域。我們的一些新基準和指數也由此創建。所以你會繼續看到它的推出。

Specifically as it relates back to the Term SOFR revenue, this is revenue that was part of the licensing effort that the team has underway. At the end of Q4, we had over 2,000 firms that we had licensed for Term SOFR products. And really, we're continuing to see increased demand for that. That was up over 300 firms just since the end of Q3, just to kind of show the acceleration of that. These are -- the revenue there is around people being licensed for OTC derivative product usage. And also, we're finding in a lot of these cases, these are new customers to CME Group. So we're also working heavily within our sales organization to convert those users and expose them into our trading business.

特別是因為它與 Term SOFR 收入相關，這是團隊正在進行的許可工作的一部分收入。在第四季度末，我們有超過 2,000 家公司獲得了 Term SOFR 產品的許可。實際上，我們繼續看到對此的需求增加。自第三季度末以來，這一數字增加了 300 多家，這只是為了顯示這種加速。這些是——人們獲得場外交易衍生產品使用許可的收入。而且，我們在很多情況下發現，這些都是芝商所的新客戶。因此，我們也在我們的銷售組織內部大力開展工作，以將這些用戶轉化為我們的貿易業務。

And so with everything within market data, it's what can we do to provide insights to our clients that will also create support and synergies with our trading and transaction-based business. I hope that helps.

因此，對於市場數據中的所有內容，我們可以做些什麼來為我們的客戶提供見解，這也將為我們的交易和基於交易的業務創造支持和協同效應。我希望這有幫助。

Our next question is coming from the line of Alex Blostein with Goldman Sachs.

我們的下一個問題來自高盛的 Alex Blostein。

I was hoping just a follow-up on the last discussion around cloud migration and expenses related to that. As you guys sort of think about the future beyond 2023 and any incremental costs associated with the migration, I was hoping you could flesh that out. But also bigger picture, as you think about CME's expense flexibility on a go-forward basis, to what extent do you think this sort of limits your ability to be more flexible like we've seen in the past?

我希望只是跟進上次關於雲遷移和相關費用的討論。當你們考慮 2023 年以後的未來以及與遷移相關的任何增量成本時，我希望你們能具體化。但從更大的角度來看，當你在前進的基礎上考慮 CME 的費用靈活性時，你認為這在多大程度上限制了你像我們過去看到的那樣更靈活的能力？

Lynne?

琳恩？

Sure. So if we think about the Google migration, I think what John guided to last year was that we would see about 4 years of incremental cash costs averaging $30 million cash cost per year. So we did see that $30 million in 2022. The cash cost for this year are estimated at $40 million. So we do expect over the next 2 years to have some incremental costs related to the migration. After that point, we see ourselves getting to breakeven and ultimately a cash flow positive for the investment.

當然。因此，如果我們考慮谷歌的遷移，我認為約翰去年的指導是我們將看到大約 4 年的增量現金成本，平均每年 3000 萬美元的現金成本。所以我們確實在 2022 年看到了 3000 萬美元。今年的現金成本估計為 4000 萬美元。因此，我們確實預計在未來 2 年內會有一些與遷移相關的增量成本。在那之後，我們看到自己達到收支平衡並最終為投資帶來積極的現金流。

One of the reasons that we are pursuing this initiative is to increase our flexibility. And we will continue to see a move from infrastructure-intensive spend and moving into this environment where we have CapEx coming down, depreciation coming down. Ultimately, we will see more of the expense in the technology line as we are renting the capacity as we need it as opposed to building through infrastructure. So that is the migration that we expect to see over the next several years on the cost base.

我們推行這一舉措的原因之一是增加我們的靈活性。我們將繼續看到從基礎設施密集型支出轉向資本支出下降、折舊下降的環境。最終，我們將看到更多的技術支出，因為我們是根據需要租用容量，而不是通過基礎設施建設。這就是我們預計在未來幾年內在成本基礎上看到的遷移。

Just one thing to add to that. If you think about the investments that we make in technology, things like artificial intelligence, big query, machine learning, we're able to get that through Google without having to make the investment ourselves. So there's a lot of positives associated with the migration to the cloud, including flexibility -- ability to launch products faster. When you think about the business cases, certainly going to be able to have better returns on our investment because we don't have to build out the entire infrastructure. Assuming success, we can build towards success. So a lot of real positives, we think, in the long run strategically with our relationship with Google.

只需添加一件事。如果你想想我們在技術方面的投資，比如人工智能、大查詢、機器學習，我們可以通過谷歌獲得這些，而無需自己進行投資。因此，遷移到雲端有很多積極因素，包括靈活性——能夠更快地推出產品。當您考慮業務案例時，肯定能夠獲得更好的投資回報，因為我們不必構建整個基礎架構。假設成功，我們就可以朝著成功邁進。因此，我們認為，從長遠來看，我們與穀歌的關係具有很多真正的積極意義。

Our next question is coming from the line of Brian Bedell with Deutsche Bank.

我們的下一個問題來自德意志銀行的 Brian Bedell。

If I come back to the -- or actually talk about the interest rate franchise, obviously, record volumes and record revenue. There is a perception that as the Fed ends tightening, that would reduce volumes. But we've got a number of other factors that can continue that strong volume. So just wanted to get your thoughts on that, and those being, obviously, the price increases and then also the new potential customers that, Julie, you talked about from the Term SOFR, the introduction of those new customers. So maybe just if you can comment on that and also the 10-year -- or the long bond complex, in terms of what you've been saying historically about more treasuries making it into private hands and being hedgeable and then other things that you're developing on the long end of the curve, not to mention the higher -- I think higher RPC on the treasury side versus the short side.

如果我回到——或者實際上談論利率專營權，顯然，創紀錄的交易量和創紀錄的收入。人們認為，隨著美聯儲結束緊縮政策，交易量將減少。但我們還有許多其他因素可以繼續保持強勁的銷量。所以只是想听聽你的想法，很明顯，這些是價格上漲，然後是新的潛在客戶，朱莉，你從術語 SOFR 中談到了這些新客戶的引入。因此，也許你可以就此以及 10 年期或長期債券綜合體發表評論，就你在歷史上所說的關於更多國債使其進入私人手中並可對沖以及其他你認為的事情而言在曲線的長端發展，更不用說更高的了——我認為國庫方面的 RPC 相對於空方更高。

Thanks, Brian. Sean, do you want to go ahead and start?

謝謝，布萊恩。肖恩，你想繼續開始嗎？

Yes. Thanks very much for the question. Great question. In terms of the overall rates complex, obviously, a very good year this year, as you said, with record volumes, strong open interest -- record large open interest holders. In fact, if you look over the last decade, we've more than doubled the number of large open interest holders. So working very closely with Julie's team, expanding our client base significantly. If you look at that growth in the market environment, obviously, the market environment has been a strong positive.

是的。非常感謝你的提問。很好的問題。就整體利率而言，很明顯，正如您所說，今年是非常好的一年，交易量創歷史新高，未平倉合約強勁——創紀錄的大量未平倉合約持有人。事實上，如果你回顧過去十年，我們的大型未平倉合約持有人的數量增加了一倍多。因此，與 Julie 的團隊密切合作，顯著擴大了我們的客戶群。如果你看看市場環境的增長，顯然，市場環境是一個強烈的積極因素。

In terms of the very long end of the curve to get specifically to your 10-year question, we haven't actually yet seen a strong uptake that we -- that I had expected in our treasury futures with the reduction in the Fed's balance sheet. In fact, treasury futures are down slightly this year. They're down 3%. So that marketplace is actually down. So how is it that we are up 7% so far this year relative to last year, which was a strong year?

就曲線的很長一端而言，具體到你的 10 年期問題，我們實際上還沒有看到我們 - 我在美聯儲資產負債表的減少中預期的美國國債期貨的強勁吸收.事實上，國債期貨今年略有下跌。他們下降了 3%。所以那個市場實際上是下跌的。那麼我們今年到目前為止比去年增長了 7%，這是一個強勁的一年？

What we've seen is something that Lynne has mentioned, I think, on past calls, which is that now with the Federal Reserve having greater uncertainty as to whether they will be increasing rates or decreasing rates and with the much greater dispersion that you see in the economic numbers, with some seeing a very strong economy and others seeing a very weak economy, we see greater demand than ever before for our interest rate options. So if you look at our short-term interest rate options this year, they're, in fact, up 40%. That's obviously driven by the huge success in the investment we made in SOFR options last year. And if you look, in fact, now at our SOFR futures plus SOFR options, we're doing 5 million contracts a day so far this year.

我認為，我們所看到的是 Lynne 在過去的電話會議上提到的事情，即現在美聯儲在加息或降息方面存在更大的不確定性，而且你看到的分散性更大在經濟數據中，一些人認為經濟非常強勁，而另一些人則認為經濟非常疲軟，我們看到對我們的利率選擇的需求比以往任何時候都大。因此，如果您查看我們今年的短期利率期權，它們實際上上漲了 40%。這顯然是由於我們去年對 SOFR 期權的投資取得了巨大成功。事實上，如果你現在看一下我們的 SOFR 期貨和 SOFR 期權，今年到目前為止我們每天執行 500 萬份合約。

So I think the outlook relative to the Federal Reserve having the opportunity or the potential for either increasing rates or decreasing rates makes greater need for our products than ever before.

因此，我認為相對於美聯儲有機會或有可能加息或降息的前景，比以往任何時候都更需要我們的產品。

Maybe if you could about the organic side, I think, Julie, you talked about the new -- the potential new trading customers from the 2,000 firms that you're onboarding?

也許如果你能談談有機方面，我想，朱莉，你談到了新的 - 來自你正在加入的 2,000 家公司的潛在新貿易客戶？

Yes. I'm really excited -- another thing that I'm very excited about is think about what we did over the last couple of years was we migrated our single largest business, the short-term interest rate futures and options business, from the LIBOR benchmark over to the SOFR benchmark. And what that's meant is a significant investment in resources, time and money in order to facilitate that migration with our clients. What we're going to get back to -- what we're going to be able to get back to this year is innovation and new products.

是的。我真的很興奮——另一件讓我非常興奮的事情是想想我們在過去幾年裡所做的事情是我們將我們最大的單一業務，即短期利率期貨和期權業務，從倫敦銀行同業拆借利率中遷移出來以 SOFR 基準為基準。這意味著對資源、時間和金錢的大量投資，以促進我們客戶的遷移。我們將要回到的——我們今年能夠回到的是創新和新產品。

So I'm very excited about the new options products that we will be launching this year. We've got several of them in the pipeline. We've got some new futures products in the pipeline. And you may recall that about half of the growth in our listed rates, futures and options business since 2012 has come from new products. So we will be launching many new products this year that we are very excited about and getting back to that innovation.

所以我對我們今年將推出的新期權產品感到非常興奮。我們有幾個正在籌備中。我們正在準備一些新的期貨產品。您可能還記得，自 2012 年以來，我們上市利率、期貨和期權業務的增長中約有一半來自新產品。因此，我們今年將推出許多新產品，我們對此感到非常興奮，並重新開始創新。

In terms of the additional clients, where we now have more than 2,100 new clients licensed with CME Term SOFR, I'll turn it over to Julie.

關於額外的客戶，我們現在有 2,100 多個新客戶獲得 CME Term SOFR 許可，我將把它交給 Julie。

Yes. So in terms of who those clients are, I think it might just be helpful if I just talk for a minute about some of the segments. Clearly, banks are the largest segments. They're the ones that are lending against this rate for all of the work they're doing across business loan, trade finance, commercial. But some of those other groups that are more to that organic point that you asked about is for the first time, a lot of private lenders, so these could be specialized hedge funds, PE firms, insurance companies, those that definitely are lending and need this rate to be used, we're also seeing licensees coming from the buy side and other investors running loan syndication, CLO debt, and again, those are use cases very specific to buy-side participants. And those are really touching across the globe. So we're seeing that in Europe and Asia as well.

是的。因此，就這些客戶是誰而言，我認為如果我只談論一些細分市場可能會有所幫助。顯然，銀行是最大的部分。他們是針對他們在商業貸款、貿易融資和商業領域所做的所有工作以這種利率貸款的人。但是其他一些更符合你所問的有機點的組織是第一次，很多私人貸方，所以這些可能是專業的對沖基金、私募股權公司、保險公司，那些肯定在放貸和需要的人使用這個利率，我們還看到來自買方的被許可人和其他投資者經營銀團貸款、CLO 債務，這些都是買方參與者非常特定的用例。這些確實觸動了全球。所以我們在歐洲和亞洲也看到了這一點。

And also, just other fintech and service providers, so you can imagine there's a growing number of vendors that are going to need these rates for valuations, risk management, loan administration, accounting. And this is where our sales team is critical to be able to work those through the funnel. And also, you can imagine the education around that, right? So we're continuing to work with commercial clients, corporate treasurers to help them understand both how that rate works, get them licensed and help them understand what other risk management products and data we have available for them. So we are working through this and, as I mentioned, still have a good pipeline of opportunities across those segments that we're working through right now.

而且，還有其他金融科技和服務提供商，所以你可以想像會有越來越多的供應商需要這些利率來進行估值、風險管理、貸款管理、會計。這就是我們的銷售團隊能夠通過渠道處理這些問題的關鍵所在。而且，你可以想像圍繞它的教育，對吧？因此，我們將繼續與商業客戶、企業財務主管合作，幫助他們了解該利率的運作方式，讓他們獲得許可，並幫助他們了解我們為他們提供的其他風險管理產品和數據。所以我們正在努力解決這個問題，正如我提到的那樣，我們現在正在努力的這些領域仍然有很多機會。

Our next question is coming from the line of Alex Kramm with UBS.

我們的下一個問題來自瑞銀集團的 Alex Kramm。

Just another one on the pricing side maybe for a minute. I know you talk about your impact of the price increase, the -- similar way every year, where you say like, hey, adjusting same mix as we saw last year, it should be this or that and then obviously, a higher level this year. But what we've also seen in recent years is that mix never really seems to be driving that upside that a lot of us expect. So I know you don't have a crystal ball, but, a, now with the 4% to 5% that you're talking about, maybe the question is how much do you think or we should expect to stick? And maybe just review what the biggest drivers of that mix are that has maybe worked against you on the pricing side recently. I know there was a lot of question. But hopefully, you got the gist of it.

定價方面的另一個問題可能需要一分鐘。我知道你談到了價格上漲的影響，每年都以類似的方式，你說，嘿，調整與我們去年看到的相同的組合，應該是這個或那個，然後顯然，更高的水平年。但我們近年來也看到的是，混合似乎從來沒有像我們很多人期望的那樣真正推動上行。所以我知道你沒有水晶球，但是，現在有了你所說的 4% 到 5%，也許問題是你認為多少或我們應該期望堅持？也許只是回顧一下最近在定價方面對你不利的這種組合的最大驅動因素是什麼。我知道有很多問題。但希望你已經明白了它的要點。

Yes. Thanks, Alex. It's very difficult, obviously, as you know, to predict how the mix is going to happen year in and year out. And I think what we've seen, certainly over time as volumes build, the only real impacts we have are mix shifts to our RPC. So in other words, we generally don't reduce prices. You saw an example when we wanted to change behavior where we adjusted and gave some fee waivers for the SOFR First for Options, which obviously was hugely successful.

是的。謝謝，亞歷克斯。很明顯，正如你所知，很難預測這種混合將如何年復一年地發生。而且我認為我們所看到的，當然隨著時間的推移隨著數量的增加，我們唯一真正的影響是混合轉向我們的 RPC。所以換句話說，我們一般不會降價。你看到了一個例子，當我們想要改變行為時，我們調整併為 SOFR First for Options 提供了一些費用減免，這顯然取得了巨大的成功。

But to put it into perspective, right, so if you look at what we did last year, we made a 1.5% to 2% price adjustment. At the time, I said that the biggest impact was going to be in the equity part of our business. And if you look at equities, our -- if you look at the RPC for equities in the fourth quarter of 2021, we were at $0.526. If you look at the RPC in our equities complex today for the fourth quarter, we're at $0.535, and this is on a 25.6% year-over-year increase in volume. So when you talk about it sticking, I would say that's pretty sticking, especially when you consider volume incentives and the like that we have in our equity business.

但是從正確的角度來看，如果你看看我們去年所做的事情，我們進行了 1.5% 到 2% 的價格調整。當時，我說最大的影響將出現在我們業務的股權部分。如果你看看股票，我們的 - 如果你看看 2021 年第四季度股票的 RPC，我們的價格為 0.526 美元。如果你看看今天第四季度我們股票綜合體的 RPC，我們的價格為 0.535 美元，交易量同比增長 25.6%。所以當你談到它堅持時，我會說它非常堅持，特別是當你考慮我們在股權業務中的數量激勵等時。

So we do take our pricing adjustments extremely seriously. We look at it on a product-by-product basis. We're very surgical. We have regular discussions around it to make sure that we're making the investments in market maker programs and incentive plans appropriately. And I would say that overall, when you look at our volume and pricing dynamics, I think we've been pretty successful in what we've done in terms of adjusting prices at the right time.

所以我們非常重視我們的定價調整。我們逐個產品地查看它。我們非常外科。我們圍繞它定期進行討論，以確保我們對做市商計劃和激勵計劃進行適當的投資。我想說的是，總的來說，當你看看我們的數量和定價動態時，我認為我們在適時調整價格方面所做的工作非常成功。

Our next question is coming from the line of Simon Clinch with Atlantic Equities.

我們的下一個問題來自 Simon Clinch 與 Atlantic Equities 的對話。

Maybe, Sean, if I can go back to you just on the points on the previous question about, I guess, the Fed's balance sheet reduction and I guess the surprise that we haven't really started to see the benefit of that yet in the long-term rates franchise. This is something I've been puzzling over myself in terms of substantially higher outstanding debt that's out there, the shifting balance towards more public holders of that debt. And yet the open interest relative to those levels of outstanding debt seems -- still seems to be relatively low to sort of -- to what it could be. What do you think would be the actual catalyst or what's holding back that thesis from playing out at this particular point?

也許，肖恩，如果我能回到你之前關於美聯儲資產負債表縮減問題的觀點，我想我們還沒有真正開始看到它的好處是令人驚訝的長期利率特許經營。這是我一直對自己感到困惑的事情，因為未償債務大幅增加，平衡向更多公眾持有者轉移。然而，相對於這些未償債務水平的未平倉利息似乎——仍然似乎相對較低——達到了它可能的水平。您認為實際的催化劑是什麼，或者是什麼阻礙了該論點在這個特定時刻發揮作用？

Yes. I don't see anything necessarily holding it back. I'm just looking at the facts. While in 2018, when the Fed reduced its balance sheet by $500 billion, we saw a 26% increase in our treasury futures. The Fed -- let's maybe be a bit careful here, right? The Fed didn't start to substantially reduce its balance sheet until September. So it's actually a very recent phenomenon, although it's been about $500 billion. So as we know, the Fed is expected to reduce their balance sheet by more than $1 trillion this year.

是的。我看不出有什麼必要阻止它。我只是在看事實。而在 2018 年，當美聯儲將其資產負債表縮減 5000 億美元時，我們看到美國國債期貨上漲了 26%。美聯儲——讓我們在這裡小心點，對吧？美聯儲直到 9 月份才開始大幅縮減資產負債表。所以這實際上是一個非常新的現象，儘管它已經達到了大約 5000 億美元。因此，正如我們所知，美聯儲今年預計將縮減超過 1 萬億美元的資產負債表。

So I would wait and see. Again, it was -- it had a very positive tailwind for our business in 2018. But as I said earlier, it has not yet shown us significant positive results this year. And that said, not yet.

所以我會拭目以待。同樣，它在 2018 年為我們的業務帶來了非常積極的順風。但正如我之前所說，它今年尚未向我們展示顯著的積極成果。也就是說，還沒有。

Okay. Is it more a case of it's just still early is the point, I guess?

好的。我想，重點是現在還早嗎？

Yes.

是的。

Okay. Okay. Great. And I was just wondering as well, in terms of -- just going back to collateral balances as well as a follow-up, how should we think about the overall levels of collateral requirements at the moment and how that should trend over time? Because obviously, they really surged during the last year. And I'm just wondering how we think about things sort of normalizing over the next couple of years and the impact to the -- with the business.

好的。好的。偉大的。我也想知道，就回到抵押品餘額和後續行動而言，我們應該如何考慮目前抵押品要求的總體水平以及隨著時間的推移應該如何趨勢？因為很明顯，他們在去年確實激增了。我只是想知道我們如何看待未來幾年正常化的事情以及對業務的影響。

Yes. This is John. I'll jump in, and then maybe Sunil can make a couple of comments. I would say it's very difficult to discern overall collateral balance because when you think about it, really, it is a function of the trading that's occurring on the exchange and the open interest that we have in our clearinghouse and the risk associated with those trades. So from our perspective, it's really all about risk management and ensuring that -- the safety and soundness of the markets. And that's very paramount.

是的。這是約翰。我馬上插話，也許 Sunil 可以發表一些評論。我會說很難辨別整體抵押品餘額，因為當你考慮它時，它實際上是交易所發生的交易和我們在清算所的未平倉合約以及與這些交易相關的風險的函數。因此，從我們的角度來看，這實際上全都與風險管理有關，並確保——市場的安全和穩健。這是非常重要的。

As Terry indicated at the start, we've been doing a lot to incent our clients to keep our cash balances or to keep their collateral in cash here at CME Group. We do it for 2 reasons. One, obviously, we earn more on it than noncash collateral. But most importantly, from a risk management perspective, having cash is much more advantageous from a risk management perspective than noncash collateral. So we try to strike that appropriate balance. Ultimately, though, it's a decision by our clients each and every day in terms of whether or not it's going to be cash or noncash based upon the returns that they can get.

正如特里在一開始所指出的那樣，我們一直在做很多工作來激勵我們的客戶保留我們的現金餘額或將他們的現金抵押品保留在芝商所。我們這樣做有兩個原因。第一，很明顯，我們從中獲得的收益高於非現金抵押品。但最重要的是，從風險管理的角度來看，從風險管理的角度來看，擁有現金比非現金抵押品更有優勢。因此，我們試圖取得適當的平衡。不過，歸根結底，我們的客戶每天都會根據他們可以獲得的回報來決定是現金還是非現金。

So we've been, I think, really prudent in terms of how we've been approaching it. And obviously, it's something that has benefited our clients because they get access to the Fed balance -- to the Fed. And then also, it's been beneficial for us. So I'll turn it over to Sunil. I don't need to turn it over to Sunil. I guess I hit it.

因此，我認為，就我們如何處理它而言，我們一直非常謹慎。顯然，這使我們的客戶受益，因為他們可以獲得美聯儲的餘額 - 美聯儲。然後，它對我們也有好處。所以我會把它交給 Sunil。我不需要把它交給 Sunil。我想我擊中了它。

Our next question is coming from the line of Michael Cyprys with Morgan Stanley.

我們的下一個問題來自摩根士丹利的 Michael Cyprys。

I was hoping we could spend a moment on the energy complex with volumes down a bit year-on-year in January. I was hoping you might be able to elaborate on what you're seeing across the marketplace, how you see the opportunity taking shape for this year in energy. And maybe you could talk a little bit about how the customer participation has varied across your customer sets, to what extent have elevated margin levels still holding back volume and activity at this point and how you see all that evolving this year.

我希望我們能花點時間在能源綜合體上，一月份的銷量同比有所下降。我希望您能夠詳細說明您在整個市場上看到的情況，您如何看待今年能源領域正在形成的機會。也許你可以談談客戶參與在你的客戶群中是如何變化的，提高的利潤率水平在多大程度上仍然阻礙了這一點的數量和活動，以及你如何看待今年的所有變化。

Yes. Thanks, Michael. Appreciate the question. Following the largest demand shock we ever saw in the energy market in 2020, followed by the largest supply shock ever in '22, we're actually starting to see the global energy market begin to normalize. One of the indicators we're seeing there is financial players are starting to return to this market. One of those clear indicators we're seeing of that this year so far, we're seeing our open interest recover in our WTI complex. We're up about 28%, up to about 1.8 million open interest since the end of '22. And that's really a function of both margins normalizing, but we're seeing hedge funds, asset managers and particularly index trackers come back into the market. They exited largely in the challenging circumstances of last year.

是的。謝謝，邁克爾。感謝這個問題。在經歷了 2020 年能源市場有史以來最大的需求衝擊和 22 年有史以來最大的供應衝擊之後，我們實際上開始看到全球能源市場開始正常化。我們看到的指標之一是金融參與者開始重返這個市場。今年到目前為止，我們看到的其中一個明確指標是，我們看到 WTI 綜合體的未平倉頭寸回升。自 22 年底以來，我們上漲了約 28%，未平倉合約達到約 180 萬份。這確實是兩個利潤率正常化的函數，但我們看到對沖基金、資產管理公司，尤其是指數追踪公司重返市場。他們主要是在去年充滿挑戰的情況下退出的。

Despite the fact that it was a challenging year last year, you look at some of the points that really carried the franchise or carrying over into this year to a degree, last year, our options market performed extremely well on the energy side with energy revenue on the option side up 9% versus the previous year. Globally, we also saw continued growth outside the U.S. with our LATAM business and energy up 70% last year and our APAC volumes up 15% last year. Finally, we saw continued growth back on the client side, specifically in retail, with our Micro WTI contract in the fourth quarter, TI volumes up 28% to a little over 100,000 contracts. So good global participation and good client segment participation.

儘管去年是充滿挑戰的一年，但你看看一些真正承載特許經營權或在一定程度上延續到今年的要點，去年，我們的期權市場在能源方面的能源收入方面表現非常出色期權方面比上一年增長了 9%。在全球範圍內，我們也看到了美國以外的持續增長，去年我們的拉丁美洲業務和能源增長了 70%，我們的亞太地區銷量去年增長了 15%。最後，我們看到客戶端的持續增長，特別是在零售方面，第四季度我們的 Micro WTI 合約，TI 交易量增長 28% 至略高於 100,000 份合約。如此良好的全球參與和良好的客戶群參與。

More importantly, when you think about where the energy markets are going, we continue to see the energy markets revolve and evolve around WTI as the central marketplace and price setter for both physical and financial markets. A couple of proof points here. Number one, the U.S. is now exporting a record level of 4.1 million barrels in Q4. We look to believe that, that export capacity will continue to grow.

更重要的是，當您思考能源市場的走向時，我們會繼續看到能源市場圍繞著 WTI 作為實物和金融市場的中心市場和價格製定者而旋轉和發展。這裡有幾個證明點。第一，美國現在第四季度的出口量達到創紀錄的 410 萬桶。我們相信，出口能力將繼續增長。

U.S. waterborne crude exports are not equal to Iraq and the #2 slot behind only Saudi Arabia. So U.S. is putting more WTI product out into the global markets. We're also expecting that -- and the market expects global oil production out of the U.S. to increase about 1 million barrels between now and 2024. So that just increases WTI's footprint globally. So if the U.S. exports already up about 40% on '22 versus '21 and exports roughly up double into Asia since 2018, we continue to see exports of U.S. product out into the global market.

美國水運原油出口量不及伊拉克，僅次於沙特阿拉伯，位居第二。因此，美國正在向全球市場投放更多 WTI 產品。我們也預計 - 市場預計從現在到 2024 年，美國的全球石油產量將增加約 100 萬桶。這只會增加 WTI 在全球的足跡。因此，如果美國的出口在 22 年與 21 年相比增長了約 40%，並且自 2018 年以來對亞洲的出口大約增長了一倍，我們將繼續看到美國產品出口到全球市場。

So what does that mean? What we're seeing not only is that strong -- and positions WTI at the central point of price making for the global oil market, but actually, our Argus Gulf Coast grades contract has a combined open interest of about 375,000 contracts. And we just had a record volume, about 11,000 contracts this year. So when you think about what that means, you got WTI set and the global price of oil, the Brent is not going to be put in the Midland WTI grade into that assessment, that means that continually centralizes WTI there. We've got the largest export market and now production on the upswing. So we like that we've got the strongest position in the export market. And in that basis contract, those Argus grades contract, as I said, about 375,000 contracts open interest, 87% of that is commercial participation. That's where customers price discover in WTI, and then they hedge their exposure out to the bases, to the Gulf, and then it exports from there.

那是什麼意思呢？我們所看到的不僅是 WTI 原油處於全球石油市場定價中心的地位，而且實際上，我們的阿格斯墨西哥灣沿岸等級合約的未平倉合約合計約為 375,000 份合約。我們的交易量剛剛創下歷史新高，今年約有 11,000 份合約。因此，當您考慮這意味著什麼時，您已經確定了 WTI 和全球石油價格，布倫特不會將 Midland WTI 等級納入該評估，這意味著 WTI 不斷集中在那裡。我們擁有最大的出口市場，現在產量正在上升。所以我們喜歡我們在出口市場上擁有最強大的地位。在那個基礎合約中，正如我所說，那些阿格斯等級的合約有大約 375,000 份未平倉合約，其中 87% 是商業參與。這就是客戶在 WTI 中發現價格的地方，然後他們對沖他們在基地、海灣地區的敞口，然後從那裡出口。

So we like the position that we're in, in terms of the centrality of WTI. We think we've got the right product mix and we got the client mix and financial players coming back in. So like Terry said, we can't predict what volumes are, but we can talk about the very strong structural position that WTI has in the global oil market going forward.

因此，就 WTI 的中心地位而言，我們喜歡我們所處的位置。我們認為我們擁有正確的產品組合，我們的客戶組合和金融參與者重新加入。所以就像特里說的，我們無法預測交易量是多少，但我們可以談論 WTI 擁有的非常強大的結構性地位在未來的全球石油市場上。

Our next question is coming from the line of Owen Lau with Oppenheimer.

我們的下一個問題來自 Owen Lau 與 Oppenheimer 的對話。

Could you please give us an update about your strategy and outlook in the digital asset space? Do you see your clients pulling back? And then you recently launched 3 metaverse reference rates and indices. What other reference rates or products would make sense for CME down the road?

您能否向我們介紹一下您在數字資產領域的戰略和前景？你看到你的客戶退縮了嗎？然後你最近推出了 3 個 metaverse 參考利率和指數。未來還有哪些其他參考利率或產品對 CME 有意義？

Thanks, Owen. Tim?

謝謝，歐文。蒂姆？

Yes. Thanks for the question. So when we look at the digital asset space and the cryptocurrency business at CME, we remain seeing very strong growth in our offering. So just as a reminder, our approach to the cryptocurrency products is being the regulated venue offering regulated products in a way that provides bona fide risk management and trusted access for the marketplace. We've seen that value proposition remain true in Q4 with some of the more widespread events in the cryptocurrency space, where we saw record volumes in November, record large open interest holders of 439 holders in the month of November. And that momentum hasn't slowed down with respect to the adoption and continued growth at CME.

是的。謝謝你的問題。因此，當我們審視 CME 的數字資產領域和加密貨幣業務時，我們仍然看到我們的產品有非常強勁的增長。因此，提醒一下，我們對加密貨幣產品的方法是在受監管的場所提供受監管的產品，從而為市場提供真正的風險管理和可信的訪問權限。我們已經看到，價值主張在第四季度仍然是正確的，加密貨幣領域發生了一些更廣泛的事件，我們在 11 月份看到了創紀錄的交易量，11 月份創下了 439 名持有人的大量未平倉合約持有人。在 CME 的採用和持續增長方面，這種勢頭並沒有放緩。

What I mean by that is let's look at the number of accounts. Typically, we add about 450 accounts per month in our cryptocurrency business. And in November, we added 934, over doubling the normal account opening. And in January, we've seen over 700 accounts -- of new accounts opened with respect to trading cryptocurrency products at CME. That's really a testament to the marketplace broadly turning to CME in times of stress in the rest of the cryptocurrency ecosystem.

我的意思是讓我們看看帳戶的數量。通常，我們的加密貨幣業務每月新增約 450 個賬戶。並且在 11 月，我們增加了 934，比正常開戶增加了一倍多。在 1 月份，我們看到了 700 多個賬戶——在 CME 開設了有關交易加密貨幣產品的新賬戶。這確實證明了市場在其他加密貨幣生態系統面臨壓力時廣泛轉向 CME。

When we look at the product development front, we have focused on additional pricing products. These are nontradable reference rates and real-time indices. We did in last month introduced 3 new reference rates around the metaverse that complements some of the additional indices we introduced with respect to the DeFi sector in cryptocurrency as well as the more than dozen so more traditional cryptocurrency tokens that we also have reference rates on.

當我們著眼於產品開發前沿時，我們專注於附加定價產品。這些是不可交易的參考利率和實時指數。我們在上個月確實圍繞元宇宙引入了 3 個新的參考利率，這些參考利率補充了我們引入的一些關於加密貨幣 DeFi 領域的額外指數，以及我們也有參考利率的十幾種更傳統的加密貨幣代幣。

And really, the strategy here is we want to make sure that CME, along with our partner, CF Benchmarks, remains one of the preeminent pricing providers for cryptocurrency as people need a trusted source to figure out on a given day, once a day which reference rates or real-time tick by tick what these assets are worth. That is where we'll continue to develop on the reference rate pricing, but we'll listen to customers. We don't necessarily have anything else in the hopper with respect to additional tokens, additional reference rates. We have almost 50 real-time indices and reference rates out there at present. And our product development will be, again, sort of in the bitcoin and ether lane as a function of the regulatory landscape that we find ourselves in.

實際上，這裡的策略是我們希望確保 CME 以及我們的合作夥伴 CF Benchmarks 仍然是加密貨幣的卓越定價提供商之一，因為人們需要一個可信賴的來源來確定某一天，每天一次參考利率或實時逐筆報價這些資產的價值。這就是我們將繼續開發參考利率定價的地方，但我們會聽取客戶的意見。關於額外的代幣、額外的參考利率，我們不一定在料斗中有任何其他東西。我們目前有近 50 個實時指數和參考利率。我們的產品開發將再次在比特幣和以太坊通道中進行，這是我們發現自己所處的監管環境的一個功能。

However, the one thing I will add is when we look at the broader ecosystem, the product development is not just a function of what CME can list, but our products are being more increasingly used by other participants in the marketplace as the underlying for ETFs, structured products, OTC trades. So we are at the center of the growing ecosystem with respect to bitcoin and ether-regulated products, and we expect that trend to continue in 2023.

然而，我要補充的一件事是，當我們審視更廣泛的生態系統時，產品開發不僅僅是 CME 可以上市的功能，而且我們的產品越來越多地被市場上的其他參與者用作 ETF 的基礎、結構性產品、場外交易。因此，在比特幣和以太幣監管產品方面，我們處於不斷發展的生態系統的中心，我們預計這一趨勢將在 2023 年繼續。

Our next question is coming from the line of Ken Worthington with JPMorgan.

我們的下一個問題來自摩根大通的 Ken Worthington。

You registered to launch an FCM last year. Where does that application stand? And in the wake of the collapse of FTX, is launching an FCM a priority or even still make sense?

您去年註冊了 FCM。該應用程序在哪裡？在 FTX 崩盤之後，推出 FCM 是優先事項還是仍然有意義？

Yes. Ken, I'll take that. Listen, the FCM application that we launched is not exactly taking anybody away from their day job of following that process on the application. We're looking -- and I'm looking at a long-term market structure and what it's going to look like. And I do believe, and I've said this, 2 Congressional hearings prior to FTX' collapse, that if we are going to have a different market structure, that we all need to participate and have things in place and rules in place in order to facilitate whatever the world is going to look like for tomorrow.

是的。肯，我會的。聽著，我們推出的 FCM 應用程序並沒有完全讓任何人擺脫他們在應用程序上遵循該流程的日常工作。我們正在尋找 - 我正在尋找一個長期的市場結構以及它會是什麼樣子。我確實相信，我已經說過，在 FTX 崩潰之前的 2 次國會聽證會上，如果我們要有一個不同的市場結構，我們都需要參與並製定適當的規則和規則促進世界明天的樣子。

Since none of us really know what the world is going to look like for tomorrow as far as what the FCM business is or not going to be, it was prudent for us to go ahead and get the application process in place. As I've said, and I've said publicly, we are unwavering, I am unwavering about our commitment for our FCM model today. Whatever we do going forward, I would hope, if, in fact, the model has to change, that we can work with our FCMs to bring them along so we can have a bigger piece of the pie for everybody to be successful.

由於我們都不知道明天的世界會是什麼樣子，就 FCM 業務而言，我們繼續前進並製定申請流程是明智的。正如我所說，而且我已經公開說過，我們堅定不移，我對我們今天對 FCM 模型的承諾堅定不移。無論我們今後做什麼，我都希望，如果，事實上，模型必須改變，我們可以與我們的 FCM 一起工作，讓他們一起來，這樣我們就可以為每個人獲得更大的成功。

So I wouldn't read too much into that. But when you're in a situation where the government appeared to be willing to approve technically a direct model without writing rules to the direct model and applying rules that were written back many, many years ago that are applicable only to the FCM model, made no sense to us. So I had to be prepared, along with my team, in order to put certain things in place just in case that was the decision of our government. I don't believe that's the case. I think there will be new rules. You heard Commissioner Johnson or you may have seen in her public remarks from Duke University about wanting to write rules as it relates to a direct model, even if it comes forward. That is a very long and difficult process to write rules, and I've been around this business for 40 years. And I've been in Washington helping write rules or participated in the process, and it is very difficult to do.

所以我不會對此讀太多。但是當你處於這樣一種情況下，政府似乎願意在技術上批准直接模型，而不為直接模型編寫規則並應用很多很多年前只適用於 FCM 模型的規則，使得對我們來說沒有意義。因此，我必須和我的團隊一起做好準備，以便將某些事情落實到位，以防萬一這是我們政府的決定。我不相信是這樣。我認為會有新的規則。你聽說過約翰遜專員，或者你可能已經在杜克大學的公開言論中看到她想要製定與直接模型相關的規則，即使它出現了。編寫規則是一個非常漫長而艱難的過程，我從事這項業務已有 40 年了。而我一直在華盛頓幫助制定規則或參與過程，這很難做到。

So I don't see that going anywhere soon. And -- but for the same time, the FCM is nothing more than -- it's a wait and see for what the future may or may not bring. And there's nothing more to it than that, Ken.

所以我認為這不會很快發生。而且——但與此同時，FCM 只不過是——等待未來可能會或可能不會帶來的東西。僅此而已，肯。

Our next question is coming from the line of Craig Siegenthaler with Bank of America.

我們的下一個問題來自美國銀行的 Craig Siegenthaler。

I have a follow-up to an earlier question, but I wanted to hone in on energy specifically. So now that your margin requirements have been declining and especially in energy, what has been the early feedback? And how much of a positive impact do you think this could have on volumes?

我有一個較早問題的後續行動，但我想特別關注能量。那麼，既然您的保證金要求一直在下降，尤其是在能源領域，那麼早期的反饋是什麼？您認為這會對銷量產生多大的積極影響？

Derek?

德里克？

Yes. Thanks, Craig. As I mentioned before, we're in the process of seeing this market normalize. Now the first thing we saw when you saw the disruptions of the Ukraine war happened last year, margins popped up. That did basically deleverage a number of financial players in the market, and they pulled back. We did not see commercial participants step away because that risk continued to be sitting there on their books.

是的。謝謝，克雷格。正如我之前提到的，我們正在看到這個市場正常化。現在，當你看到去年烏克蘭戰爭造成的破壞時，我們看到的第一件事就是利潤率突然上升。這確實基本上讓市場上的一些金融參與者去槓桿化，他們撤回了。我們沒有看到商業參與者退出，因為這種風險繼續存在於他們的賬簿上。

I think as we've seen margins normalize, that's one part of the overall equation. We certainly have seen, as I mentioned, the open interest trends turned very positively. As I said, our open interest in WTI right now versus end of last year is up 28%. On the nat gas side, we're seeing similarly. Open interest is up about 10% from the beginning of Q4 last year, and the most important marker there is look at the open interest holders and the types of those customers coming back in. Our large open interest holders and natural gas have also grown up about 17%, up to just about 420 versus the beginning of Q4.

我認為正如我們看到利潤率正常化一樣，這是整體方程式的一部分。正如我所提到的，我們當然已經看到持倉量趨勢非常積極。正如我所說，我們目前對 WTI 的持倉量與去年底相比增加了 28%。在天然氣方面，我們看到了類似的情況。未平倉合約比去年第四季度初增加了約 10%，其中最重要的標誌是未平倉合約持有人和這些客戶回來的類型。我們的大型未平倉合約持有人和天然氣也有所增長大約 17%，與第四季度初相比上升到大約 420。

So as we suspected, increased cost to transact, increased margin tends to initially push financial customers out. We've seen index trackers retail in the form of micros start to come back in. That will be a process, and we see that reflected initially both in the large open interest holders as well as growth and rebuild of open interest. And more importantly, structurally, as I mentioned, we like our position in WTI and Henry Hub as the central points and being the largest export market in both of these products and setting the global price of both natural gas and oil globally. So those are the markets we're seeing right now. That will be a slow build, but we like the trajectory this is ongoing into this year.

因此，正如我們所懷疑的那樣，交易成本增加、利潤率增加往往會在一開始將金融客戶拒之門外。我們已經看到以微型形式零售的指數追踪器開始回歸。這將是一個過程，我們看到這最初反映在大型未平倉合約持有者以及未平倉合約的增長和重建中。更重要的是，正如我提到的，在結構上，我們喜歡我們在 WTI 和亨利中心的地位，它們是這兩種產品的最大出口市場，並在全球範圍內設定天然氣和石油的全球價格。所以這些就是我們現在看到的市場。這將是一個緩慢的構建過程，但我們喜歡它持續到今年的軌跡。

I had a follow-up on the rate side, too. 10-year is down like -- can you guys hear me?

我也在利率方面進行了跟進。 10 年就像——你們能聽到我說話嗎？

Yes. Go ahead.

是的。前進。

Perfect. So the 10-year is down like 40 basis points year-to-date. The Fed could go on hold in 3 to 6 months. Those will probably be negative factors for your rate complex. But at the same time, QT does continue, and there are margin -- lower margin requirements. So like how should we think about all these kind of mix of positive and negative factors on the rate complex?

完美的。所以 10 年期國債今年迄今下跌了 40 個基點。美聯儲可能會在 3 到 6 個月內按兵不動。這些可能會對您的利率綜合體產生負面影響。但與此同時，QT 確實繼續存在，並且有保證金——較低的保證金要求。那麼我們應該如何考慮利率綜合體中所有這些積極和消極因素的組合呢？

Yes. I think similar to my answer earlier, what's pricing to the curve right now? Obviously, the world goes to CME's Fed funds futures to see what the expectations are in the market or the Federal Reserve. Currently, there's about 50 basis points or 2 more 25 basis points tightening priced into the curve. And then further out the curve, there's actually 200 basis points in easing. As I said earlier, the uncertainty about the Federal Reserve is, from my perspective and if you look at the marketplace, increasing, not decreasing, relative to the probability of either tightening or easing and in each case by substantial amounts.

是的。我認為與我之前的回答類似，現在曲線的定價是多少？顯然，全世界都在關注 CME 的聯邦基金期貨，以了解市場或美聯儲的預期。目前，曲線中已計入約 50 個基點或 2 個以上 25 個基點的緊縮。然後在曲線之外，實際上有 200 個基點的寬鬆政策。正如我之前所說，從我的角度來看，如果你觀察市場，美聯儲的不確定性是增加而不是減少，相對於收緊或放鬆的可能性，並且在每種情況下都大幅增加。

If you look at the dispersion of economic data with the 517,000 nonfarm payrolls, versus, for example, the ISM numbers, which are running in the high 40s, you have everything from the potential for continued boom to the potential for a recession. In addition to that, you can look at the excess savings of households that remains post COVID, which remains, according to recent reports, at around $2.6 trillion.

如果您查看 517,000 份非農就業人數的經濟數據的分散情況，例如，ISM 數據處於 40 多位的高位，您會發現從持續繁榮的可能性到衰退的可能性，應有盡有。除此之外，您還可以查看 COVID 後家庭的超額儲蓄，根據最近的報告，該儲蓄額仍保持在 2.6 萬億美元左右。

So enormous excess savings, enormous uncertainty, huge increases in rates from the Federal Reserve, I personally think that the uncertainty is very high. The rates could go either way. And what we've seen again is, overall, for our treasury futures, they have declined slightly relative to last year, down 3% in terms of volumes. But as I said earlier, our short-term interest rate options, which are reflective of that uncertainty of the Federal Reserve, are up 40% year-over-year. So I think that the environment is highly uncertain.

如此巨大的過剩儲蓄，巨大的不確定性，美聯儲大幅加息，我個人認為不確定性非常高。利率可以任意變化。我們再次看到的是，總體而言，我們的國債期貨與去年相比略有下降，交易量下降了 3%。但正如我之前所說，反映美聯儲不確定性的我們的短期利率選擇同比增長了 40%。所以我認為環境是高度不確定的。

Let me just add to what Sean said, and this is just a personal theory that I think of the Fed. When you say, Craig, that they could hold on their increases, I think when you looked at most of 2022, most of the participants were looking through a pivot. The pivot never happened. And we saw, to Sean's point, the Fed Chair talking more hawkish even as of recently a couple of days ago.

讓我補充一下肖恩所說的，這只是我對美聯儲的個人理論。克雷格，當你說他們可以保持增長時，我認為當你回顧 2022 年的大部分時間時，大多數參與者都在尋找一個支點。樞軸從未發生過。我們看到，就 Sean 的觀點而言，美聯儲主席甚至在幾天前都在談論更加鷹派的言論。

So even if they was a hold, I think people would anticipate that, that would mean a pivot, which would mean massive activity on refis and people waiting to do a lot of business as they're waiting for that moment that you were referring to as a hold. And if, in fact, the market was to do a pivot, if that was to happen, I think it would be more activity, not less. So even at a hold, I think that would not be bearish for CME. That could be very bullish for CME.

因此，即使他們被擱置，我認為人們會預料到，這將意味著一個支點，這將意味著 refis 上的大量活動和人們等待做大量業務，因為他們正在等待你所指的那一刻作為保留。事實上，如果市場要轉向，如果真的發生了，我認為會更活躍，而不是更少。因此，即使停滯不前，我認為這對 CME 也不會利空。這對 CME 來說可能非常利好。

Our next question is coming from the line of Andrew Bond with Rosenblatt Securities.

我們的下一個問題來自 Andrew Bond 與 Rosenblatt Securities 的對話。

Just following up on energy and specifically natural gas, 2022 was one of the tightest gas markets over the last decade. And this year, we appear to be set up for one of the more oversupplied markets in many years, and we're seeing this pricing at the lowest levels in 18 months. Like can you talk about how this dynamic is likely to impact market participation and perhaps some of the structural shifts we've seen since natural -- in the natural gas market since the Russia invasion?

繼能源，特別是天然氣之後，2022 年是過去十年中最緊張的天然氣市場之一。而今年，我們似乎已經為多年來供應過剩的市場之一做好了準備，我們看到這一定價處於 18 個月以來的最低水平。比如你能談談這種動態可能如何影響市場參與，以及自俄羅斯入侵以來我們在天然氣市場上看到的一些結構性轉變嗎？

Yes. And natural gas is an interesting one. It was directly -- certainly impacted by the Russian invasion when you had the pipe gas coming from Russia directly into Europe, which is effectively the basis for the flow for the TTF contract. So light crude, natural gas market is beginning to normalize. Now given the unusually warm weather we've had both in Europe, which I think has bailed a lot of Europe out as well as here in the U.S., the market was making sure that there was enough supply going into a normal winter. It's now feeling oversupplied in a warm winter, which is not a terrible thing for the consumer, but is creating some interesting dynamics in the market.

是的。天然氣是一種有趣的氣體。當管道天然氣從俄羅斯直接進入歐洲時，它直接 - 當然受到俄羅斯入侵的影響，這實際上是 TTF 合同流量的基礎。所以輕質原油、天然氣市場開始正常化。現在考慮到我們在歐洲都經歷過異常溫暖的天氣，我認為這已經使很多歐洲和美國擺脫困境，市場正在確保有足夠的供應進入正常的冬季。現在在溫暖的冬天感覺供過於求，這對消費者來說並不是一件可怕的事情，但正在為市場創造一些有趣的動態。

We actually are seeing -- when we looked at last year, the full year, our Henry Hub volume was down a couple of percent, 2%, 3%, something like -- I think -- I saw something a little bit of a larger magnitude than the downdraft. But as I mentioned before, open interest is up 10% from the Q3 low. So we are seeing that market begin to normalize. And more importantly, we're seeing participants in the large open interest holders up 17% from -- again, into Q4. January is starting well. Overall, our nat gas complex as a whole was up about 1%, but by options, up 8%. So we are seeing some normalization of activity there.

我們實際上看到 - 當我們回顧去年，全年時，我們的 Henry Hub 銷量下降了幾個百分點，2%，3%，就像 - 我想 - 我看到了一些東西幅度大於下降氣流。但正如我之前提到的，未平倉合約比第三季度的低點增加了 10%。所以我們看到市場開始正常化。更重要的是，我們看到大型未平倉合約持有人的參與者從第四季度再次增長了 17%。一月開局不錯。總體而言，我們的天然氣綜合體整體上漲了約 1%，但按期權計算，上漲了 8%。所以我們看到那裡的活動有些正常化。

I think in the same way that we think about the structural position of our energy markets in the same way that we've seen the market evolve around WTI as that global physical market, we're seeing the same thing happen around Henry Hub. And Henry Hub is by far the largest natural gas market in the world, growing in importance every year. That's a function both of the significant production in the U.S., but the growing export capacity and volumes out of the U.S. as well. So it's -- not only is Henry Hub a huge domestic market, it's becoming, in light of the challenges to TTF, the global marker as well. TTF's going to have to position -- or the European market will have to begin to reference an LNG point out of Northern Europe, though TTF itself was taking piped gas coming from Russia.

我認為，我們以同樣的方式思考我們能源市場的結構性地位，就像我們看到市場圍繞 WTI 和全球現貨市場發展一樣，我們看到同樣的事情發生在亨利中心周圍。亨利港是迄今為止世界上最大的天然氣市場，其重要性每年都在增長。這是美國大量生產的結果，也是美國不斷增長的出口能力和數量的結果。因此，Henry Hub 不僅是一個巨大的國內市場，而且鑑於 TTF 面臨的挑戰，它也正在成為全球市場。 TTF 將不得不定位——否則歐洲市場將不得不開始參考北歐的液化天然氣點，儘管 TTF 本身正在使用來自俄羅斯的管道天然氣。

So we -- in terms of where we're seeing client participation, similar to crude, we're starting some normalization, open interest up, client participations flowing back in. And the centrality of Henry Hub global nat gas market puts us, we believe, in a very strong position. However, market dynamics evolve. Whether we're going to be low and flat for a while or trending back up, that's just a function of we're in the middle of gas season right now in an unusually warm winter. I think that's part of the overhang in the price right now. But we like the dynamics. We like our position, and just the magnitude of Henry Hub versus TTF is something like it. I think the Henry Hub market, when you normalize by molecule size, is about 20x the size of TTF. So we like our position. We like our customer participation, and the open interest trends are heading in the right direction.

所以我們 - 就我們看到客戶參與的地方而言，類似於原油，我們正在開始一些正常化，開放興趣，客戶參與回流。亨利中心全球天然氣市場的中心地位使我們，我們相信，在一個非常強大的位置。然而，市場動態在演變。無論我們是在一段時間內處於低位和持平狀態，還是呈回升趨勢，這只是我們在異常溫暖的冬天正處於天然氣季節中期的結果。我認為這是目前價格過高的一部分。但我們喜歡動態。我們喜歡我們的立場，而且 Henry Hub 與 TTF 的規模也差不多。我認為 Henry Hub 市場，當你按分子大小標準化時，大約是 TTF 大小的 20 倍。所以我們喜歡我們的立場。我們喜歡我們的客戶參與，未平倉合約趨勢正朝著正確的方向發展。

And our next question is a follow-up question from the line of Alex Kramm with UBS.

我們的下一個問題是 Alex Kramm 與瑞銀的後續問題。

Just one follow-up on the energy business. You got a bunch of questions on that, and I actually wanted to step back there for a second. I mean, you said several times that you really like your strategic position. But when I look back over the last, whatever, 5, 10, 15 years, that business has been basically ex growth. And in the last 5 years, for example, I think it's down 4% CAGR in revenue terms. When I look at your primary competitor, which obviously we all know and track, I mean, I think at the same time, these guys have grown 5% revenue CAGR. So there's a 9% delta. So I hear you with the positioning. But I'm just wondering, like what structurally has happened there? And I know you have different product sets and so forth, but you still play in the same sandbox. So hoping you can close that gap and maybe any idea like how.

只是關於能源業務的一項後續行動。你對此有很多問題，我實際上想退後一步。我的意思是，你多次說過你真的很喜歡你的戰略地位。但當我回顧過去，無論是 5 年、10 年還是 15 年，該業務基本上都是不增長的。例如，在過去 5 年中，我認為它的收入複合年增長率下降了 4%。當我看你的主要競爭對手時，顯然我們都知道並跟踪，我的意思是，我認為與此同時，這些傢伙的收入複合年增長率增長了 5%。所以有 9% 的增量。所以我聽到你的定位。但我只是想知道，那裡在結構上發生了什麼？我知道你們有不同的產品集等等，但你們仍然在同一個沙盒中玩。所以希望你能縮小差距，也許有任何想法，比如如何。

Yes. Thanks, I appreciate it. I think you're right. We do have different products that's in our energy franchise. When you look at our Henry Hub franchise and ICE's LD1, for example, those results have not been markedly differently in terms of performance over the last couple of years. Certainly, ICE has the basis market here. And the TTF complex, which I think is under significant strain right now in terms of what that means going forward as a long-term marker given some of the physical challenges where those gas flows are going to come from and what that now represents, that -- I won't try to tell you otherwise. The TTF market has been on a good run for the last 2 or 3 years.

是的。謝謝，我很感激。我想你是正確的。我們的能源專營權中確實有不同的產品。例如，當您查看我們的 Henry Hub 特許經營權和 ICE 的 LD1 時，這些結果在過去幾年的表現方面並沒有明顯不同。當然，ICE 在這裡有基礎市場。而 TTF 複合體，我認為它現在正承受著巨大的壓力，考慮到這些氣體流將來自的一些物理挑戰以及它現在所代表的意義，這意味著作為一個長期標誌前進的意義， ——否則我不會告訴你。 TTF 市場在過去 2 或 3 年一直運行良好。

So they're in product sets that we are not. We're in product sets that they are not. I would point to our Global Emissions Offsets contracts in the voluntary carbon markets as an example of a market that we are in that they are not in right now. They are in the compliance markets or in the voluntary market. So when you break down the pieces on the like-for-like businesses, those results have not been markedly differently. Where the different results are, some of their asset -- some of their products where they're in where we are not have been contributors to the bottom line growth.

所以他們在我們不在的產品集中。我們在他們不在的產品集中。我想以我們在自願碳市場中的全球排放抵消合同為例，說明我們目前所處的市場目前還沒有。他們在合規市場或自願市場。因此，當你分解同類企業的各個部分時，這些結果並沒有明顯不同。在不同的結果所在的地方，他們的一些資產——他們在我們不在的地方的一些產品一直在為利潤增長做出貢獻。

So from our perspective, we -- as I said, we look at the structural benefits and the positioning of our core complex in WTI in global crude, which looks very positive, as well as the Henry Hub complex, both of those being the biggest markets, now the biggest export markets for those respective products. So we just -- as said, going forward, we like what we've done. We've globalized our business. We expanded our options complex. But that outperformance, Alex, as I said, it's really a function of they've been lucky to be in products where they have franchises that we are not operating in. And that's -- you got to be both good and lucky to be successful in this business, and we like our position going forward.

因此，從我們的角度來看，正如我所說，我們著眼於 WTI 核心綜合體在全球原油中的結構優勢和定位，這看起來非常積極，以及亨利中心綜合體，這兩個綜合體都是最大的市場，現在是這些產品的最大出口市場。所以我們只是 - 正如所說，展望未來，我們喜歡我們所做的事情。我們已經將我們的業務全球化。我們擴大了我們的選擇範圍。但正如我所說，亞歷克斯，這種出色的表現確實是因為他們很幸運能夠在他們擁有我們沒有經營的特許經營權的產品中。那就是 - 你必須既好又幸運才能成功在這項業務中，我們喜歡我們未來的立場。

And our last question in queue is coming from the line of Kyle Voigt with KBW.

我們隊列中的最後一個問題來自 Kyle Voigt 與 KBW 的對話。

Maybe a question for Terry. I know you agreed to an extension on your employment contract last year. But with that, I believe, set to end next year, I'm wondering if you'd be able to or be willing to share whether you're open to extending your employment contract again. And also, if you could address or provide any color as to how the Board views succession planning more broadly.

也許是特里的問題。我知道你去年同意延長你的僱傭合同。但是，我相信這將在明年結束，我想知道你是否能夠或願意分享你是否願意再次延長你的僱傭合同。此外，如果你能解決或提供任何關於董事會如何更廣泛地看待繼任計劃的顏色。

Yes. Thanks, Kyle. And obviously, there's some confidentiality into the conversations that I've had with my Board, but I will just give you a general take on it. My contract goes to the end of 2024. I've committed to my Board that I will be here through 2024. At the same time, we will be looking at -- we are looking at succession. And if, in fact, the Board is not comfortable with that process, I told them I would stay on until they are. So that's kind of how we're leaving it. So a lot could happen between now and then, obviously. But my commitment is to the company, it has been all these years, and it will not deviate from that.

是的。謝謝，凱爾。顯然，我與董事會進行的對話具有一定的保密性，但我只會給你一個大概的看法。我的合同到 2024 年底結束。我已向董事會承諾，我將在這里工作到 2024 年。與此同時，我們將考慮——我們正在考慮繼任者。事實上，如果董事會對該流程感到不滿意，我會告訴他們我會繼續留任，直到他們滿意為止。這就是我們離開它的方式。顯然，從現在到那時可能會發生很多事情。但我對公司的承諾，這麼多年了，也不會背離。

So the Board knows that, but we all have a job ahead of us to make sure that we do the right succession planning and make sure it's a seamless one and that has the attributes to do multiple things from Washington to M&A and everything else. There's a lot that goes on in these businesses, and there's not too many exchanges as we know in the world that people know how to operate. So we got to find the right person, but we got -- we have a lot of talent in -- not only in this room but through the organization. And if, in fact, the Board isn't comfortable with where we're at, then I will extend until they are.

所以董事會知道這一點，但我們都有一項工作擺在我們面前，以確保我們進行正確的繼任計劃，並確保它是一個無縫的計劃，並且具有從華盛頓到併購和其他所有方面做多項事情的屬性。這些業務中發生了很多事情，而我們所知道的世界上沒有太多的交易所是人們知道如何運作的。所以我們必須找到合適的人選，但我們得到了——我們有很多人才——不僅是在這個房間裡，而且是通過整個組織。事實上，如果董事會對我們所處的位置感到不滿意，那麼我會延長到他們滿意為止。

And that is all the questions we have. I would now like to turn the call back over to management.

這就是我們所有的問題。我現在想把電話轉回管理層。

Well, thank you all for taking time out this morning, and we hope you have a good day and be safe.

好吧，謝謝大家今天早上抽出時間，我們希望你們今天過得愉快並且安全。

That does conclude the conference call for today. We thank you for your participation and ask that you please disconnect your lines.

這確實結束了今天的電話會議。我們感謝您的參與，並請您斷開您的線路。