Commercial Metals Co (CMC) 2025 Q1 法說會逐字稿

Hello, and welcome, everyone, to the fiscal 2025 first-quarter earnings call for CMC. Joining me on today's call are Peter Matt, CMC's President and Chief Executive Officer; and Paul Lawrence, Senior Vice President and Chief Financial Officer.

大家好，歡迎參加 CMC 2025 財年第一季財報電話會議。參加今天電話會議的還有 CMC 總裁兼執行長 Peter Matt；以及資深副總裁兼財務長保羅勞倫斯（Paul Lawrence）。

Today's materials, including the press release and supplemental slides that accompany this call can be found on CMC's Investor Relations website. Today's call is being recorded. (Operator Instructions)

今天的資料，包括新聞稿和本次電話會議的補充幻燈片，可在 CMC 的投資者關係網站上找到。今天的通話正在錄音。（操作員指令）

I would like to remind all participants that today's discussion contains forward-looking statements, including with respect to economic conditions; effects of legislation; US steel import levels; construction activity; demand for finished steel products; the expected capabilities, benefits, and timeline for construction of new facilities the company's operations; the company's strategic growth plan, legal proceedings; the company's future results of operations, financial measures, and capital spending. These statements reflect the company's beliefs based on current conditions but are subject to risks and uncertainties.

我想提醒所有與會者，今天的討論包含前瞻性陳述，包括有關經濟狀況的陳述；立法的效果；美國鋼鐵進口水準；建築活動；成品鋼需求；公司營運的新設施建設的預期能力、效益和時間表；公司的策略發展計劃、法律訴訟；公司未來的經營績效、財務指標和資本支出。這些聲明反映了公司基於當前情況的信念，但受風險和不確定性的影響。

The company's earnings release most recent annual report on Form 10-K and other filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission contain additional information concerning factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from those projected in forward-looking statements. Except as required by law, CMC does not assume any obligation to update, amend, or clarify these statements.

該公司發布的最新 10-K 表年度收益報告和向美國證券交易委員會提交的其他文件包含有關可能導致實際結果與前瞻性陳述中預測的結果存在重大差異的因素的更多資​​訊。除法律要求外，CMC 不承擔更新、修改或澄清這些聲明的任何義務。

Some numbers presented will be non-GAAP financial measures, and reconciliations for such numbers can be found in the company's earnings release, supplemental slide presentation or on the company's website. Unless stated otherwise, all references made to year or quarter end are referenced to the company's fiscal year or fiscal quarter.

所呈現的一些數字將是非 GAAP 財務指標，這些數字的對帳可以在公司的收益報告、補充幻燈片簡報或公司網站上找到。除非另有說明，否則所有提及的年末或季末均指本公司的財政年度或財務季度。

And now for opening remarks and introductions, I will turn the call over to Peter.

現在，我將把開場白和介紹交給彼得。

Good morning, everyone, and thank you for joining CMC's first-quarter earnings conference call. I hope each of you had a wonderful holiday season.

大家早安，感謝大家參加CMC第一季財報電話會議。我希望你們每個人都度過了一個美好的假期。

I will start this morning's discussion with an overview of CMC's first quarter results. I will then provide commentary on current market conditions and share an update on CMC's strategic efforts. After which, I will offer a few brief remarks on a recent jury verdict reached in litigation against CMC and certain subsidiaries. Paul will cover the first quarter's financial information in more detail, and I will conclude with our outlook for the second fiscal quarter of 2025. We will then open the call to questions.

我將從 CMC 第一季業績概述開始今天上午的討論。然後，我將對當前的市場狀況發表評論，並分享 CMC 策略努力的最新進展。之後，我將就最近針對 CMC 及其某些子公司的訴訟中陪審團做出的裁決發表一些簡短的評論。保羅將更詳細地介紹第一季的財務信息，最後我將介紹我們對 2025 財年第二季的展望。然後我們將開始提問。

As a reminder, additional information regarding the quarter is provided in the supplemental slides that accompany this call, which can be found on CMC's Investor Relations website.

提醒一下，有關本季度的更多資訊已在本次電話會議的補充幻燈片中提供，可在 CMC 的投資者關係網站上找到。

CMC reported a net loss for the first quarter of $175.7 million or a loss of $1.54 per diluted share on sales of $1.9 billion. The result included a $264 million after-tax charge for litigation expense as a result of a verdict the company intends to appeal. Excluding this item, adjusted earnings were $88.5 million or $0.78 per diluted share. From an operational perspective, CMC's underlying financial performance remained historically strong, though down from recent periods.

CMC 報告第一季淨虧損為 1.757 億美元，即每股虧損 1.54 美元，銷售額為 19 億美元。該結果包括因公司打算上訴的判決而產生的 2.64 億美元稅後訴訟費用。除此項目外，調整後收益為 8,850 萬美元，即每股攤薄收益 0.78 美元。從營運角度來看，CMC 的基本財務表現儘管較近期有所下降，但仍保持歷史強勁。

For the first quarter, we generated consolidated core EBITDA of $210.7 million, producing a core EBITDA margin of 11% and a trailing 12-month return on invested capital of 8.4%. Results in our North America Steel Group were impacted by economic uncertainty that has weighed on new construction activity and pressured steel pricing and margins. This was partially offset by strong late-season demand for rebar as job sites worked to catch up from days lost to weather disruptions earlier in the year.

第一季度，我們的綜合核心 EBITDA 為 2.107 億美元，核心 EBITDA 利潤率為 11%，過去 12 個月投資資本回報率為 8.4%。我們北美鋼鐵集團的表現受到經濟不確定性的影響，這給新建築活動帶來了壓力，並給鋼鐵價格和利潤率帶來了壓力。由於工地努力彌補今年稍早因天氣原因損失的工時，季末對螺紋鋼的強勁需求在一定程度上抵消了這一影響。

Our Europe Steel Group returned to profitability on the receipt of an annual CO2 credit, while underlying business conditions remained challenging, similar to recent quarters. Excellent cost management continues to be a bright spot, and I would like to commend our team for their ongoing efforts.

我們的歐洲鋼鐵集團在獲得年度二氧化碳排放額度後恢復了獲利能力，但基本業務條件仍然充滿挑戰，與最近幾季的情況類似。出色的成本管理繼續是一個亮點，我要讚揚我們團隊的持續努力。

Profitability for CMC's emerging businesses group softened during the first quarter, driven largely by dynamics we view as temporary in nature, including a lower margin sales mix and project delays encountered in our Tensar division and a slower truck and trailer market affecting impact metals.

第一季度，CMC 新興業務集團的獲利能力減弱，這主要是由於我們認為屬於暫時性的因素所致，包括利潤率較低的銷售組合、坦薩部門遇到的項目延遲，以及卡車和拖車市場放緩對衝擊金屬造成的影響。

We do expect to recapture the earnings impact from the Tensar factors later in fiscal 2025. Some of the first quarter weakness was offset by healthy activity in our CMC Construction Services division and in our Performance Reinforcing Steel division.

我們確實預計在 2025 財年後期重新獲得 Tensar 因素帶來的獲利影響。我們CMC建築服務部門和高性能鋼筋部門的良好表現抵銷了第一季的部分疲軟影響。

Turning now to CMC's markets in North America. Demand for finished steel products was robust during the first quarter, with shipments reaching the highest level since the third quarter of fiscal 2023. As mentioned previously, construction activity was stronger further into the calendar year in several geographies that is seasonally typical.

現在來談談 CMC 在北美的市場。第一季成品鋼需求強勁，出貨量達到2023財年第三季以來的最高水準。如前所述，幾個地區的建築活動在年底更為強勁，這是季節性的典型特徵。

The stretch of favorable weather across much of the country in October and November, provided an opportunity for many job sites to play catch up after enduring weather-related disruptions during the spring and summer months. In fact, shipments remained higher than expected into the first few weeks of December and only cooled off with the arrival of the holidays.

10 月和 11 月全國大部分地區天氣晴朗，為許多工作場所提供了迎頭趕上的機會，因為在春季和夏季經歷了與天氣有關的干擾之後，許多工作場所得以迎頭趕上。事實上，12 月前幾週的出貨量仍然高於預期，只是隨著假期的到來才有所降溫。

While shipment volumes, due to ongoing construction projects, were strong during the first quarter, we continue to feel the impact of market uncertainties. Customers remain hesitant to award new contracts, which has resulted in an overhang on steel pricing and margins.

雖然由於正在進行的建設項目導致第一季的出貨量強勁，但我們仍然感受到市場不確定性的影響。客戶仍不願授予新合同，導致鋼鐵價格和利潤率過高。

We mentioned this reluctance to finalize new work during our fourth-quarter conference call, and we saw little change during the first quarter. Though uncertainty related to the outcome of the US election has been resolved, questions remain about the future path of interest rates and the nature and speed of policy implementation by the incoming presidential administration.

我們在第四季度電話會議中提到了這種不願完成新工作的情況，我們在第一季幾乎沒有看到任何變化。儘管與美國大選結果相關的不確定性已經解決，但對於未來利率走勢以及新總統政府實施政策的性質和速度仍然存在疑問。

As a result of new construction projects being fewer and slower to award, competition has increased for the work that does come to the market, putting pressure on pricing and margins for our steel products. This hesitancy is widespread across most segments of the construction markets with the notable exception of publicly funded work such as infrastructure.

由於新建築項目數量減少且授予速度較慢，進入市場的工程競爭加劇，對我們的鋼鐵產品定價和利潤帶來壓力。這種猶豫不決普遍存在於建築市場的大部分領域，但基礎設施等公共資助的工程除外。

I should note, however, that the market signals can be difficult to interpret during the seasonally slower period we are currently in, particularly around the winter holidays. The next few months will be key to watch for signs of recovery as we will enter the typical season for contracting new construction work.

不過，我應該指出，在我們目前所處的季節性淡季，市場訊號可能難以解讀，特別是在冬季假期期間。接下來的幾個月將是觀察復甦跡象的關鍵，因為我們將進入新建築工程承包的典型季節。

As we mentioned during our last call, we believe these market conditions are transient in nature and will subside once greater clarity emerges, allowing strong underlying fundamentals to return. CMC's downstream bidding activity has remained resilient, which points to a solid pipeline of potential future projects.

正如我們在上次電話會議中提到的那樣，我們認為這些市場狀況只是暫時的，一旦情況更加明朗，強勁的基本面就會回歸，這些狀況就會消退。中冶的下游投標活動仍保持強勁，顯示其未來有充足的潛在項目儲備。

Our internal data is mirrored by external data points such as the Dodge Momentum Index and insights from recent customer conversations. The Dodge Momentum Index, or DMI, measures the monthly value of construction projects entering the planning phase. Though off from its recent all-time high, the index remains 55% above its pre-pandemic average and appears to indicate that project owners are confident that construction activity will rebound as we move through 2025 and are building a sizable pipeline in preparation to act once conditions improve.

我們的內部數據由外部數據點（例如道奇動量指數和最近客戶對話的見解）反映。道奇動量指數（DMI）衡量進入規劃階段的建築項目的月度價值。儘管該指數已低於近期歷史最高水平，但仍比疫情前的平均水平高出 55%，這似乎表明項目所有者有信心，隨著 2025 年的到來，建築活動將會反彈，並且正在建設規模可觀的管道，為情況好轉後採取行動做好準備。

A meaningful shift in business sentiment gives us hope that we may be nearing a turning point in our markets. As slide 6 of the supplemental presentation illustrates optimism across many sectors has improved sharply over the last two months, driven by expectations for an improved regulatory environment, tax reforms, and policies to support US manufacturing and job creation.

商業情緒的重大轉變讓我們相信，我們的市場可能正在接近一個轉折點。正如補充簡報的第 6 張投影片所示，受監管環境改善、稅收改革以及支持美國製造業和就業創造的政策的預期推動，過去兩個月中許多行業的樂觀情緒大幅提升。

In particular, the outlook among construction firms has improved notably as evidenced by ENR's Construction Confidence Index, which recently hit its highest reading over two years -- in over two years. I would also note that our recent conversations with customers indicate similar optimism about the future.

尤其是建築公司的前景明顯改善，ENR 建築業信心指數最近創下了兩年多來的最高水準。我還要指出的是，我們最近與客戶的對話也顯示了對未來同樣的樂觀態度。

Outside of the construction industry, both large and small businesses are feeling more confident about the months and quarters ahead. The NFIB's gauge of small business optimism registered the third strongest monthly increase in its 50-year history during November, while two separate measures of corporate CEO confidence also moved up meaningfully. These positive signals give us confidence that it is a matter of when and not if our markets return to growth.

在建築業之外，無論大型或小型企業都對未來幾個月和幾季的業績更有信心。美國全國獨立企業聯合會（NFIB）的小型企業樂觀指數在 11 月創下了 50 年歷史上第三次月度增幅，同時兩項衡量企業執行長信心的獨立指標也大幅上升。這些正面的訊號讓我們相信，我們的市場恢復成長只是時間問題，而不是是否會恢復成長的問題。

As we have discussed at length in the past, powerful structural trends will benefit the US construction markets. including infrastructure investment, reshoring of manufacturing, energy transition and transmission buildout, as well as measures to address chronic housing shortages. We believe these trends are in their early stages and will propel construction activity for years to come.

正如我們過去詳細討論過的那樣，強勁的結構性趨勢將使美國建築市場受益。包括基礎設施投資、製造業回流、能源轉型和輸電建設，以及解決長期住房短缺的措施。我們相信這些趨勢尚處於早期階段，並將推動未來幾年的建築活動。

Shifting gears to our Europe Steel Group, conditions were similar to recent quarters. Benefits from an improving Polish macroeconomic environment and supply discipline among domestic long steel producers have been offset by the influx of excess material from neighboring countries, namely Germany.

將目光轉向我們的歐洲鋼鐵集團，情況與最近幾季類似。波蘭宏觀經濟環境改善和國內長材生產商供應紀律帶來的好處，被來自鄰國（即德國）的過剩鋼材的湧入所抵消。

Total imports of rebar are up 50% on a calendar year-to-year -- year-to-date basis, while flows from Germany have increased by 75%. This foreign supply has more than matched the incremental demand from a growing residential construction market and supply restraint from domestic players. As a result, margins remain under pressure.

今年迄今，螺紋鋼進口總量年增 50%，其中來自德國的進口量上漲 75%。國外供應量超過了不斷增長的住宅建築市場帶來的增量需求和國內企業的供應限制。因此，利潤率仍然面臨壓力。

Amidst these difficult conditions, our team in Poland has performed commendably to manage all aspects of its business that can be controlled, taking an opportunistic commercial approach and aggressively managing costs.

在這些困難的條件下，我們的波蘭團隊表現出色，管理了業務的所有可控方面，採取了機會主義的商業方式並積極管理成本。

Based on our current view of the landscape, we would not anticipate a meaningful positive change in either the overall market environment or CMC's Europe Steel Group's earnings until an economic recovery develops in Germany or new sources of demand emerge such as the rebuild of Ukraine.

根據我們目前對情勢的看法，我們預計，除非德國經濟復甦或烏克蘭重建等新需求源出現，否則整體市場環境或 CMC 歐洲鋼鐵集團的獲利不會發生有意義的正面變化。

Next, I would like to provide an update on a few of CMC's strategic initiatives. As we have discussed in the past, CMC is taking active steps to achieve our ambitious vision to drive the next phase of value accretive growth.

接下來，我想介紹一些 CMC 的策略舉措。正如我們過去所討論的，CMC 正在採取積極措施實現我們雄心勃勃的願景，推動下一階段的價值增值成長。

As outlined on slide 9, our aim with this strategy is threefold. First, to achieve sustainably higher, less volatile through-the-cycle margins that are fortified by our operational and commercial excellence initiatives. Second, to execute on attractive organic growth opportunities. And third, in a disciplined manner to pursue inorganic growth opportunities that broaden CMC's commercial portfolio of early-stage construction products, improve our customer value proposition, and meaningfully extend our growth runway.

如第 9 張投影片所概述的，我們實施這項策略的目標有三個面向。首先，透過我們的營運和商業卓越計劃，實現可持續的更高、波動更小的周期利潤率。第二，抓住有吸引力的有機成長機會。第三，以嚴謹的方式尋求無機成長機會，拓寬 CMC 的早期建築產品商業組合，改善我們的顧客價值主張，並有意義地延長我們的成長跑道。

Last quarter, we introduced Transform Advance and Grow, or TAG, as we call it, our enterprise-wide operational and commercial excellence initiative, with the goal of generating a permanent improvement in our margin profile. This program is unlike any ever launched at CMC due to the breadth and depth of its reach as well as the visibility and the accountability structures built to support it.

上個季度，我們推出了「轉型、進步和成長」（即 TAG）計劃，這是我們企業範圍的營運和商業卓越計劃，目標是永久改善我們的利潤率。該計劃不同於 CMC 曾經推出的任何計劃，因為它的影響範圍廣、深度強，而且可見性強，並建立了支持該計劃的問責結構。

Every line of business and every support function has been involved in identifying and quantifying opportunities that now include over 150 different initiatives.

每個業務線和每個支援職能都參與識別和量化機會，目前已涵蓋 150 多個不同的措施。

Currently, we are executing on the first wave of these initiatives and are seeing very strong early results. One such initiative is a program to reduce alloy consumption and waste. The effort is being led by process experts in coordination with melt shop operators from across our mill footprint. The team is working to minimize alloy costs while continuing to meet product quality specifications. We expect the efforts to date will produce a sustainable benefit of approximately $5 million annually.

目前，我們正在執行這些舉措的第一波，並看到了非常強勁的早期成果。其中一項舉措就是減少合金消耗和浪費的計畫。這項工作由製程專家牽頭，並與整個工廠的熔煉車間操作員進行協調。團隊正在努力降低合金成本，同時繼續滿足產品品質規格。我們預計迄今為止的努力每年將產生約 500 萬美元的可持續效益。

In another initiative, we are working to improve our melt shop yields through enhanced technical knowledge sharing, increased scrutiny around measurements and waste, and more disciplined process execution. We expect this effort to produce sustained benefits of between $5 million and $10 million annually.

在另一項舉措中，我們正在努力透過加強技術知識共享、加強對測量和浪費的審查以及更規範的流程執行來提高我們的熔煉車間產量。我們預計這項努力將產生每年 500 萬至 1000 萬美元的持續效益。

These programs are just two of the larger initiatives that are being executed in the first wave and should provide a useful template for understanding the nature of these initiatives, how they are being delivered and the overall scope and scale of CMC's broader TAG program.

這些項目只是第一波實施的較大舉措中的兩個，它們應該為理解這些舉措的性質、如何實施以及 CMC 更廣泛的 TAG 計劃的總體範圍和規模提供有用的模板。

We have several other major operational and commercial work streams now underway that are intended to drive and sustain higher margins through a variety of pathways, including optimized logistics, lower insurance premiums, commercial excellence, and many more. Progress to date gives us confidence that our TAG-related efforts should provide financial benefit in fiscal 2025 with more to come in the years ahead.

我們目前正在進行其他幾個主要的營運和商業工作流程，旨在透過各種途徑推動和維持更高的利潤率，包括優化物流、降低保險費、商業卓越等等。迄今為止的進展使我們相信，我們與 TAG 相關的努力將在 2025 財年帶來財務效益，並且在未來幾年還將帶來更多效益。

We are making solid progress on CMC's key organic growth projects, particularly at our new Arizona 2 facility. As a reminder, this plant is the first micro mill in the world capable of producing both rebar and merchant bar product, and we are navigating the unique challenges that invariably come with any breakthrough technology.

我們在 CMC 的關鍵有機成長項目上取得了紮實進展，特別是在我們新的亞利桑那州 2 號工廠。提醒一下，該工廠是世界上第一家能夠同時生產螺紋鋼和商用鋼筋產品的微型工廠，我們正在應對任何突破性技術必然帶來的獨特挑戰。

Good advancement is evidenced by the fact that our team was able to achieve two consecutive monthly production records at the end of the first quarter. Output levels should continue to increase as we move through fiscal 2025, and we expect to exit the year at a run rate near nameplate capacity of 500,000 tons annually.

我們的團隊在第一季末連續兩個月創下生產記錄，證明我們的進步很大。隨著我們進入 2025 財年，產量水準將繼續增加，我們預計到今年年底，產量將接近每年 50 萬噸的額定產能。

Meanwhile, progress at CMC's Steel West Virginia site remains on track and we are currently on target for commissioning -- for the commissioning process to begin in late calendar 2025.

與此同時，CMC 位於西維吉尼亞鋼鐵廠的進展仍在按計劃進行，目前我們正按計劃進行調試——調試過程將於 2025 年底開始。

On the inorganic front, we remain interested in entering attractive adjacencies for our business where we believe we have a clear right to play and an opportunity to offer immediate value given CMC's current customer knowledge, market positioning, and operational capabilities.

在無機方面，我們仍然有興趣進入對我們業務有吸引力的鄰近領域，我們相信，鑑於 CMC 目前的客戶知識、市場定位和運營能力，我們有明確的權利參與其中，並有機會提供即時價值。

We are targeting segments of the $150 billion early-stage construction segment that touch the types of projects we are already servicing and feature higher, more stable margins. These adjacent markets should also benefit from megatrends that are expected to drive construction activity for years to come, which include infrastructure investment, reshoring the general scarcity of labor; and environmental changes driving increased extreme weather conditions.

我們的目標是價值 1500 億美元的早期建設領域，這些領域涉及我們已經服務的項目類型，並且利潤率更高、更穩定。這些鄰近的市場也應受益於預計在未來幾年推動建築活動的大趨勢，其中包括基礎設施投資、勞動力普遍稀缺的回流；以及導致極端天氣狀況增加的環境變化。

Before I turn the things over to Paul, I would like to make a brief comment on the litigation between CMC and Pacific Steel Group. In its complaint filed in the California court in 2020, Pacific Steel Group claimed, among other things, various restraints on trade by CMC. A trial on Pacific Steel Group's claims concluded with a jury verdict and judgment in favor of Pacific Steel Group in an amount of $110 million, which was subsequently troubled as a matter of law.

在把事情交給保羅之前，我想先簡單評論CMC和太平洋鋼鐵集團之間的訴訟。太平洋鋼鐵集團在 2020 年向加州法院提起的訴訟中聲稱，CMC 對貿易實施了各種限制等。對太平洋鋼鐵集團訴訟請求的庭審最終以陪審團裁決結果結束，法院判決太平洋鋼鐵集團勝訴，並賠償集團 1.1 億美元，此舉隨後引發了法律糾紛。

CMC is very confident in how we conduct our business practices, and we were very surprised and deeply disappointed by the outcome of this trial. We are vigorously pursuing all appropriate avenues to appeal the decision. Because this litigation is ongoing, we are very limited in what we can discuss about the case or the potential outcome of the appeal process.

CMC 對我們的商業行為非常有信心，但這次審判的結果讓我們感到非常驚訝和深感失望。我們正在積極尋求一切適當途徑對該判決提出上訴。由於該訴訟仍在進行中，我們對此案以及上訴過程的潛在結果能討論的內容非常有限。

Paul?

保羅？

Thank you, Peter, and good morning to everyone on the call. As noted earlier, we reported a fiscal first quarter 2025 net loss of $175.7 million or a loss of $1.54 per diluted share compared to net earnings of $176.3 million and net earnings per diluted share of $1.49 in the prior year period.

謝謝你，彼得，祝電話裡的每個人早安。如前所述，我們報告 2025 財年第一季淨虧損為 1.757 億美元，即每股攤薄虧損 1.54 美元，而去年同期的淨利潤為 1.763 億美元，每股攤薄淨利潤為 1.49 美元。

Excluding an approximate $265 million after-tax charge related to the litigation accrual, adjusted earnings for the quarter totaled $88.5 million or $0.78 per diluted share compared to $176.3 million and $1.49 per diluted share, respectively, in the prior year period.

不包括與訴訟應計費用相關的約 2.65 億美元稅後費用，本季調整後收益總計 8,850 萬美元，即每股攤薄收益 0.78 美元，而去年同期調整後收益總計 1.763 億美元，即每股攤薄收益 1.49 美元。

Consolidated core EBITDA was $210.7 million for the first quarter of 2025, representing a decline from $313.7 million generated during the prior year period.

2025 年第一季的綜合核心 EBITDA 為 2.107 億美元，較去年同期的 3.137 億美元有所下降。

Slide 12 of the supplemental presentation illustrates the year-to-year changes in CMC's quarterly performance. Profitability at our North American Steel Group was negatively impacted by lower margins over scrap while adjusted EBITDA at our Europe Steel Group declined on lower energy rebates. Results for CMC's emerging business group were hindered by lower contributions by our Tensar and Impact Metals divisions.

補充簡報的第 12 張投影片展示了 CMC 季度業績的逐年變化。我們北美鋼鐵集團的獲利能力因廢料利潤率較低而受到負面影響，而我們歐洲鋼鐵集團的調整後 EBITDA 則因能源回扣降低而下降。由於 Tensar 和 Impact Metals 部門的貢獻較低，CMC 新興業務集團的業績受到阻礙。

Consolidated core EBITDA margin of 11% remained above historical levels and compared to 15.7% in the prior year period.

合併核心 EBITDA 利潤率為 11%，仍高於歷史水平，而去年同期為 15.7%。

CMC's North American Steel Group generated adjusted EBITDA of $188.2 million for the quarter, equal to $164 per ton of finished steel shipped. Segment adjusted EBITDA decreased 29% compared to the prior year period, driven primarily by lower margin over scrap cost on steel and downstream products.

CMC 的北美鋼鐵集團本季的調整後 EBITDA 為 1.882 億美元，相當於每噸成品鋼材運輸成本 164 美元。分部調整後 EBITDA 與去年同期相比下降了 29%，主要原因是鋼鐵及下游產品的廢料成本利潤率下降。

Controllable cost per ton of finished steel shipped improved on both a sequential and year-over-year basis, helped by lower freight costs, better cost performance at our Arizona 2 micro mill, and improved fixed cost leverage across CMC's mill footprint. The adjusted EBITDA margin for the North American Steel Group of 12.4% compares to 13.5% in the fourth quarter of 2024.

受運費降低、亞利桑那州 2 號微型鋼廠成本效益提高以及 CMC 整個鋼廠固定成本槓桿提高的推動，每噸成品鋼的可控成本比上一季度和去年同期都有所改善。北美鋼鐵集團的調整後 EBITDA 利潤率為 12.4%，而 2024 年第四季為 13.5%。

As Peter indicated earlier, demand for long steel products was strong during the quarter. Finished steel shipments decreased by 4.4% -- increased, sorry, by 4.4% compared to a year ago and were up 2.3% on a sequential basis, which compares to a normal fourth quarter to first quarter seasonal reduction of between 4% and 7%.

正如彼得先前指出的，本季對長鋼產品的需求強勁。成品鋼出貨量下降了 4.4%——沒錯，是比去年同期增加了 4.4%，比上一季增加了 2.3%，而正常的第四季至第一季的季節性降幅在 4% 到 7% 之間。

Turning to slide 14 of the supplemental deck. Our Europe's Steel Group reported adjusted EBITDA of $25.8 million for the first quarter of 2025 compared to $38.9 million in the prior year period. The reduction was driven by lower receipts from energy cost rebate programs.

翻到補充投影片的第 14 張。我們歐洲鋼鐵集團報告稱，2025 年第一季的調整後 EBITDA 為 2,580 萬美元，而去年同期為 3,890 萬美元。減少的原因是能源成本回扣計劃的收入減少。

During this year's first quarter, total receipts amounted to $44.1 million and came solely from an annual CO2 credit, compared to receipts in the prior year period of $66.3 million from two different programs: $27.7 million from the annual CO2 credit, and $38.6 million related to a temporary energy cost reimbursement program.

今年第一季度，總收入為 4,410 萬美元，全部來自年度二氧化碳排放額度，而去年同期的總收入為 6,630 萬美元，來自兩個不同的項目：2,770 萬美元來自年度二氧化碳排放額度，3,860 萬美元與臨時能源成本補償計畫有關。

Excluding the impact of energy rebates, Europe Steel Group's financial performance improved by $9.2 million from the prior year period as strong cost management efforts more than offset a 9% decline in shipments and segment metal margins.

除去能源回扣的影響，歐洲鋼鐵集團的財務業績較去年同期提高了 920 萬美元，因為強有力的成本管理措施足以抵消出貨量和金屬部門利潤率 9% 的下滑。

Results for the quarter include approximately $4.7 million in costs related to planned maintenance overhauls and a $1.2 million expense associated with early retirement and layoff costs. Employee-related costs are expected to drive further improvements in controllable costs at the facility as we move forward.

本季的業績包括與計劃維護大修相關的約 470 萬美元成本以及與提前退休和裁員成本相關的 120 萬美元費用。隨著我們不斷前進，預計與員工相關的成本將推動工廠可控成本的進一步改善。

Margin levels have been range-bound between roughly $270 per ton and $290 per ton over the last six quarters despite an improving Polish economic environment and positive developments within the Polish construction sector.

儘管波蘭經濟環境不斷改善且波蘭建築業也取得了積極的發展，但在過去六個季度中，利潤水平一直徘徊在每噸 270 美元至 290 美元之間。

We would expect margins to remain under pressure until the level of rebar imports begins to recede, the scenario that would likely require an economic recovery in Germany or new sources of demand, such as the rebuild in Ukraine.

我們預計利潤率仍將承受壓力，直到螺紋鋼進口量開始下降，這種情況可能需要德國經濟復甦或出現新的需求源，例如烏克蘭的重建。

Emerging Business Group first quarter net sales of $169.4 million decreased by 4.4% on a year-over-year basis, while adjusted EBITDA of 22.7% -- sorry, $22.7 million declined by 26.6%. The decline was driven by lower margin product mix and project delays within our Tensar division as well as reduced truck and trailer sales at CMC's Impact Metals division.

新興業務集團第一季淨銷售額為 1.694 億美元，年減 4.4%，調整後 EBITDA 為 22.7%——對不起，2,270 萬美元，下降了 26.6%。造成這一下降的主要原因是 Tensar 部門產品組合利潤率較低、專案延遲，以及 CMC Impact Metals 部門卡車和拖車銷量下降。

We believe that the reduced profits in the Tensar division incurred during the quarter should be largely recaptured later in fiscal 2025, primarily in the third and fourth quarters.

我們認為，本季度坦薩部門的利潤減少應在 2025 財年後期，主要是在第三季和第四季得到基本彌補。

Internally, our annual outlook for the emerging business group is unchanged in the wake of the first quarter disappointing results. Strong project-related shipments of Performance Reinforcing Steel and healthy activity levels in our Construction Services business helped to offset some of the softness elsewhere in the EBG group. The weaker sales mix during the first quarter led to a 400 basis point decline in the adjusted EBITDA margin compared to the first quarter of 2024, but we expect recovery for the remainder of the year.

從內部來看，由於第一季業績令人失望，我們對新興業務集團的年度展望保持不變。與專案相關的高性能鋼筋出貨量強勁，加上建築服務業務的健康活動水平，幫助抵消了 EBG 集團其他業務的部分疲軟。第一季銷售組合較弱導致調整後的 EBITDA 利潤率與 2024 年第一季相比下降了 400 個基點，但我們預計今年剩餘時間將會復甦。

As of November 30, cash and cash equivalents totaled $856.1 million. In addition, we had approximately $815 million of availability under our credit and accounts receivable facilities bringing total liquidity to just under $1.7 billion.

截至 11 月 30 日，現金及現金等價物總額為 8.561 億美元。此外，我們的信貸和應收帳款安排下還有約 8.15 億美元的可用資金，使總流動資金達到略低於 17 億美元。

During the quarter, we generated $213 million of cash from operating activities, which included a $26.2 million release of cash from working capital. Capital expenditures of $118.2 million were largely driven by construction activity related to Steel West Virginia micro mill project.

本季度，我們從經營活動產生了 2.13 億美元的現金，其中包括從營運資本中釋放的 2,620 萬美元現金。1.182 億美元的資本支出主要來自西維吉尼亞州鋼鐵微型工廠計畫相關的建設活動。

CMC's leverage metrics remain attractive and have improved significantly over the last several fiscal years. As can be seen on slide 19, for the first fiscal quarter of 2025, our net debt to adjusted EBITDA ratio now sits at just 0.6 times. While net debt to capitalization is only 6%. We believe our robust balance sheet and overall financial strength provide us the flexibility to finance our strategic organic growth projects and pursue opportunistic M&A while continuing to return cash to shareholders.

CMC 的槓桿指標仍然具有吸引力，並且在過去幾年中有了顯著改善。從投影片 19 可以看出，2025 財年第一季度，我們的淨負債與調整後 EBITDA 比率現在僅為 0.6 倍。而淨債務與資本化比率僅6%。我們相信，強勁的資產負債表和整體財務實力為我們提供了靈活性，可以為我們的策略性有機成長項目提供資金，並進行機會性併購，同時繼續向股東返還現金。

As we look towards fiscal 2025 capital spend outlook, we expect to invest between $630 million and $680 million in total. Outside of normal sustaining investments of approximately $250 million in CapEx, our 2025 includes substantial dollars related to the construction of Steel West Virginia. As a reminder, approximately $200 million of spending related to this project was deferred from fiscal '24 into 2025.

展望 2025 財年資本支出前景，我們預期總投資在 6.3 億美元至 6.8 億美元之間。除了約 2.5 億美元資本支出的正常持續投資外，我們的 2025 年計畫還包括與西維吉尼亞鋼鐵廠建設相關的大量資金。提醒一下，與該項目相關的約 2 億美元支出從 24 財年推遲到 2025 年。

As outlined on past earnings call, CMC targets a prudent and balanced approach to capital allocation. Our first priority is value accretive growth that furthers our strategy and strengthens our business. Coming in a close second providing our shareholders with an attractive level of cash distributions in the form of both dividends and share repurchases.

正如過去的收益電話會議所概述的那樣，CMC 的目標是採取審慎、均衡的資本配置方式。我們的首要任務是實現價值增值成長，以進一步推進我們的策略並增強我們的業務。緊隨其後，以股息和股票回購的形式為我們的股東提供具有吸引力的現金分配。

To this end, CMC returned approximately $71 million to our shareholders during the first quarter, as we repurchased approximately 919,000 shares at an average price of $54.83 per share. As of November 30, we had $353.4 million available for repurchase under our current authorization.

為此，CMC 在第一季向股東返還了約 7,100 萬美元，因為我們以每股 54.83 美元的平均價格回購了約 919,000 股。截至 11 月 30 日，根據我們目前的授權，我們有 3.534 億美元可供回購。

I'll now turn the call back over to Peter for additional comments on CMC's financial outlook.

現在我會把電話轉回給彼得，請他對 CMC 的財務前景提出更多評論。

Thank you, Paul. We expect consolidated financial results in our second quarter of fiscal 2025 to decline from the first-quarter level. Finished steel shipments within the North American Steel Group are anticipated to follow normal seasonal trends, while the adjusted EBITDA margin is expected to decrease on lower margins over scrap costs on steel and downstream products.

謝謝你，保羅。我們預計 2025 財年第二季的綜合財務業績將較第一季的水準下降。北美鋼鐵集團的成品鋼出貨量預計將遵循正常的季節性趨勢，而調整後的 EBITDA 利潤率預計將因鋼鐵和下游產品的廢料成本利潤率下降而下降。

Adjusted EBITDA for our Europe Steel Group should be in line with the prior year second quarter as stringent cost management efforts continue to offset a weak market environment. Financial results for our emerging businesses group are anticipated to decline due to normal seasonality and be in line with prior year results.

由於嚴格的成本管理措施持續抵銷疲軟的市場環境，我們歐洲鋼鐵集團的調整後 EBITDA 應與去年同期第二季持平。由於正常季節性因素，我們新興業務集團的財務表現預計會下降，與去年同期業績持平。

We are very encouraged by our conversations with customers and the optimism they have voiced about the coming quarters. Key indicators of the construction pipeline also point in a positive direction. Outside of construction, measures of business confidence both large and small, have improved significantly over the last two months. The palpable shift in sentiment gives us confidence that the current softness is transient and that we should soon enter a period of renewed strength in our core markets.

我們與客戶的對話以及他們對未來幾季所表達的樂觀態度讓我們感到非常鼓舞。在建工程的關鍵指標也呈現正向的方向。除建築業之外，大型和小型商業信心指標在過去兩個月中均有顯著改善。情緒的明顯轉變讓我們相信，當前的疲軟是暫時的，我們的核心市場很快就會進入新一輪的強勁時期。

Before we open the call to questions, I want to reiterate how excited we are about the potential to reach new heights in the future as we execute on our key strategic priorities and deliver significant value for our shareholders. As we move past near-term uncertainty, CMC is well positioned to benefit from powerful structural trends in North America that should drive construction activity for years to come.

在我們開始提問之前，我想重申一下，我們對未來達到新高度的潛力感到非常興奮，因為我們正在執行我們的關鍵策略重點並為股東帶來重大價值。隨著我們擺脫近期的不確定性，CMC 將有機會從北美強大的結構性趨勢中受益，這將推動未來幾年的建築活動。

I would also like to thank our customers for their trust and their confidence in CMC and all of our employees for delivering yet another quarter of very solid safety and operational performance. Operator?

我還要感謝客戶對 CMC 和我們全體員工的信任和信心，感謝他們又一個季度實現了非常穩健的安全和營運績效。操作員？

(Operator Instructions) Sathish Kasinathan, Bank of America.

(操作員指示) Sathish Kasinathan，美國銀行。

My first question is on the North American steel product shipments. You mentioned that you saw some late-season construction activity in Q1, which continued into first two weeks of December. And with the Arizona 2 mill ramping up, how should we look at the state product shipments for Q2 compared to last year?

我的第一個問題是關於北美鋼鐵產品出貨量。您提到，您在第一季看到了一些季末建築活動，這種活動持續到了 12 月的前兩週。隨著亞利桑那州 2 號工廠的產能提升，與去年相比，我們應該如何看待該州第二季的產品出貨量？

Yeah. I think what you should expect is to see a normal seasonal trend between Q1 and Q2 going into our second quarter for 2025.

是的。我認為您應該預期的是，在 2025 年第二季度，第一季和第二季之間會出現正常的季節性趨勢。

So that's generally about 5% to 10% lower?

那麼一般來說大約低 5% 到 10% 左右？

That's right, Sathish. Merging on the higher end, given that we're starting from a higher place.

沒錯，薩蒂什。鑑於我們的起點較高，因此我們在較高端進行合併。

Okay. Understood. Thank you. My next question is on the emerging business group. So you talked about several large project delays for Tensar, can you provide more color on what's driving these delays? Is it limited to Europe? Or are you seeing more broad-based delays across all regions?

好的。明白了。謝謝。我的下一個問題是關於新興業務集團的。您談到了 Tensar 的幾個大型項目的延期，您能否詳細說明導致這些延期的原因？僅限於歐洲嗎？或者您看到所有地區都出現了更普遍的延遲？

No, I think -- well, first of all, thanks for the question. I think in this instance, the delays are really pretty broad-based. Both in North America and in the rest of the world, we're seeing kind of some project delays. I think it turned out in North America, some of these projects, they're lumpy projects and the delay of these projects has really kind of impacted the earnings in the quarter.

不，我認為——好吧，首先，感謝您的提問。我認為在這種情況下，延遲確實相當廣泛。無論是在北美還是世界其他地區，我們都看到一些專案延遲。我認為在北美，其中一些項目是不穩定的項目，而這些項目的延遲確實對本季的收益產生了影響。

But as we said in the prepared remarks, we fully expect that these projects are going to move forward. We've got kind of a number of data points around them that give us confidence in that fact. And so it's a matter of the earnings -- the revenue and the earnings coming in just later in the year.

但正如我們在準備好的發言中所說，我們完全期待這些項目能夠向前邁進。我們獲得了大量相關數據點，這些數據讓我們對這一事實充滿信心。所以這是一個收益的問題——收入和今年稍後的收益。

And given that these projects are mostly lumpy, should we assume that the recovery will be more meaningful and on an annual basis, probably the impact is not that significant?

鑑於這些項目大多是不穩定的，我們是否應該假設復甦將更有意義，並且從年度角度來看，影響可能不會那麼大？

Yeah. I think, again, we expect Tensar to grow nicely this year. So we're really shifting what might have been some revenue and EBITDA in Q1 into Q3 or Q4. So when you look at it on an annual basis, we should see some nice growth in Tensar this year.

是的。我認為，我們再次預計坦薩今年將實現良好成長。因此，我們實際上正在將第一季的部分營收和 EBITDA 轉移到第三季或第四季。因此，如果從年度角度來看，我們應該會看到坦薩今年會實現良好的成長。

Given that Tensar -- really soil stabilization occurs at the outset of the projects, projects that get pushed from the fall generally are not going to start up until the springtime. That's why Peter outlined, really, it will be Q3 and Q4, not necessarily a pull up in Q2.

鑑於 Tensar —— 真正的土壤穩定發生在計畫開始時，從秋季開始推遲的計畫通常要到春季才會啟動。這就是為什麼彼得概述說，實際上，它將是第三和第四季度，而不一定是第二季的上漲。

Katja Jancic, BMO Capital Markets.

Katja Jancic，BMO 資本市場。

Maybe first on -- Peter, you mentioned two initiatives under TAG that should generate, I think, combined $10 million to $15 million in annualized benefits. Is this going to be generated in fiscal year '25? Or how should we think about this?

首先，彼得，您提到了 TAG 下的兩項舉措，我認為，這兩項舉措每年應能產生 1,000 萬至 1,500 萬美元的綜合收益。這將在 25 財年產生嗎？或者說我們該如何思考這個問題？

So these are -- those numbers are kind of run rate estimates for what we think we can get to. What I will tell you, Katja, we expect -- or we will -- we had TAG benefit in Q1, and we clearly expect TAG benefits in fiscal 2025. What we have not done is we've not quantified precisely what 2025 will be in totality from TAG. And that's purposeful.

所以這些 — — 這些數字是我們認為可以達到的運行率估計。我要告訴你的是，卡佳，我們預計——或者說我們會——我們在第一季度獲得了 TAG 收益，而且我們明確預計在 2025 財年將獲得 TAG 收益。我們還沒有做的是，我們沒有準確量化 TAG 在 2025 年的整體情況。這是有目的的。

We are -- we kind of built this program. We're in the middle of a number of Phase 1 initiatives, and we're wanting to kind of pressure test what we're doing here before we outline in great detail the program for you. But the intent of this was to give you some perspective on the potential magnitude of initiatives. We said these are some larger initiatives, but remember, we have a backlog of 150 different initiatives, right?

我們——我們已經建立了這個計畫。我們正處於第一階段的多項計劃的實施過程中，在為您詳細概述該計劃之前，我們想對我們在這裡所做的事情進行壓力測試。但這樣做的目的是讓您對這些舉措的潛在規模有所了解。我們說過，這些都是一些較大的舉措，但請記住，我們已經積壓了 150 個不同的舉措，對嗎？

So hopefully, that gives you some perspective that this can be a meaningful contributor. And not a meaningful contributor in isolation. What we're trying to do is we're trying to elevate the margin over time of our business so that we will, through the cycle, generate higher margins. And I think this TAG program is a critical piece of that exercise.

所以希望這能給你一些啟發，讓你認為這可以是一個有意義的貢獻者。並且單獨來看並不是一個有意義的貢獻者。我們試圖做的是，隨著時間的推移，我們業務的利潤率會有所提高，以便在整個週期中獲得更高的利潤率。我認為 TAG 計劃是這項演習的關鍵部分。

Can you let us know of those 150 initiatives, how many of those are considered larger? The $5 million to $10 million type of initiatives?

您能告訴我們，在這 150 項舉措中，有多少項被視為規模較大的舉措？500 萬到 1000 萬美元的計劃？

No, we're not going to do that at this point. It's a clever question, but we're going to stop short of that. Look, what we've said is, and based on my comments, hopefully, you can gather, this is a meaningful effort. And if it's going to elevate our margins meaningfully over the duration of this project, there need to be some serious initiatives here, and we're confident that we have them, but we need to spend the time and understand this and execute on these before we before we share too much of that detail with all of you.

不，我們現在還不會這麼做。這是一個聰明的問題，但我們不會再問這個問題了。你看，我們已經說過，並且根據我的評論，希望你們能夠明白，這是一個有意義的努力。如果要在整個專案期間大幅提高我們的利潤率，就需要採取一些嚴肅的舉措，我們有信心我們已經採取了這些舉措，但我們需要花時間去理解這一點，並在與大家分享太多細節之前執行這些舉措。

And then maybe on the capital allocation. When I look at the past few quarters, you've been spending about $50 million per quarter on share buybacks. Is this level sustainable over the next few quarters given that CapEx is expected to move higher?

然後也許是關於資本配置。回顧過去幾個季度，我發現你們每季在股票回購上花費了大約 5000 萬美元。鑑於預計資本支出將會走高，這一水準在未來幾季能否持續？

We think so. We think so. We've been very purposeful in kind of coming up with a balanced capital allocation strategy. And what we aim to do is to be consistent. And we set this program up when we set the share repurchase program up, we said we would execute it over kind of roughly three years, and that's our intent to do. So we intend to be in the market on a regular basis, buying our shares and barring any kind of unusual circumstance, that's what we'll do.

我們這麼認為。我們這麼認為。我們非常有目的地制定了平衡的資本配置策略。我們的目標是保持一致。我們在製定股票回購計劃時就制定了這個計劃，我們說過我們將在大約三年的時間內執行該計劃，這就是我們的意圖。因此，我們打算定期進入市場，購買我們的股票，除非出現任何異常情況，否則我們都會這樣做。

Phil Gibbs, KeyBanc Capital Markets.

KeyBanc 資本市場公司的 Phil Gibbs。

Question is just kind of about the second half of the fiscal year in terms of expectations for recovery and just construction overall and what's driving that in terms of specific areas, whether it be in industrial or energy or semis. Just trying to understand some of the conversations that you're having, what you're seeing in your order book, that sort of thing in terms of the viewpoint.

問題只是關於財政年度下半年的復甦預期和整體建築業，以及推動具體領域復甦的因素，無論是工業、能源或半導體。只是想從觀點的角度去理解您正在進行的一些對話、您在訂單簿中看到的內容以及諸如此類的事情。

Yeah. Great question, Phil. Thank you. So we are optimistic for the back half of our fiscal year, as you note. And I think we are kind of queuing off of some of the general optimism that we're seeing all around us. You'll note that we introduced a number of additional indices to kind of project the confidence that we feel. And so we're seeing that in general around us.

是的。很好的問題，菲爾。謝謝。因此，正如您所說，我們對財政年度下半年充滿樂觀。我認為，我們正對周遭看到的普遍樂觀情緒表示贊同。您會注意到，我們引入了許多附加指數來展現我們的信心。我們在周圍普遍看到這種現象。

And then in our order books, we are seeing a high level of bidding activity. We're seeing backlogs maintained and if we tick through some of our end markets, infrastructure is here, right? The spending is on the ground. I can give you an anecdotal conversation I had with a southern state DOT representative who told me that based on the backlog of activity that they have, they're going to be busy for years to come. So this is kind of the multiyear trend that we've been talking about.

然後在我們的訂單中，我們看到高水準的競標活動。我們看到積壓訂單維持，如果我們檢查一些終端市場，基礎設施就在這裡，對嗎？支出已到位。我可以告訴你一個我與南部州交通部代表的軼事談話，他告訴我，根據他們積壓的活動，未來幾年他們將會很忙。這就是我們一直在談論的多年趨勢。

If you move to non-residential, we have been seeing an elevated level of spending in manufacturing, and that seems to be kind of -- that seems to have some renewed momentum in it. There's a number of projects in the Gulf LNG projects that are now moving forward. Some of the chip projects, particularly in the West, appear to be moving forward again. So you're getting some more of this kind of reshoring energy transition activity that -- these are big consumers of rebar.

如果轉向非住宅領域，我們看到製造業支出水準有所提高，這似乎有點——似乎有一些新的勢頭。墨西哥灣液化天然氣計畫中有許多計畫正在推進中。一些晶片項目，特別是在西方，似乎又開始取得進展。因此，您將獲得更多此類回流能源轉型活動，這些國家是鋼筋的主要消費者。

And if we look at the Dodge Momentum Index from an outsider's perspective, what we see is that it's been at an elevated level for the past -- really the past year. And that indicates that we should be coming into the period when some of these kind of design phase projects start to become kind of real.

如果我們從局外人的角度來看道奇動量指數，我們會發現該指數在過去——實際上是過去的一年——一直處於高位。這表明我們即將進入一些此類設計階段專案開始變為現實的時期。

So -- and conversations that we have with our contractor customers suggest that they're also very busy. So while there are some sectors of the non-residential space that we think will remain a little bit lackluster, we think, in general, the demand is setting us up for, again, in this case, kind of multiyear strong demand.

所以——我們與承包商客戶的對話顯示他們也非常忙碌。因此，雖然我們認為非住宅領域的某些領域仍將保持低迷，但我們認為，總體而言，需求將為我們帶來多年的強勁需求。

And lastly, even in residential, I know there's been a lot of conversation about interest rates, but interest rates are moving down, and we do have this deficit of 2 million to 4 million homes in North America that needs to get addressed at some point. So again, these are data points, but they suggest to us that tipping point is near, and we're very optimistic about that.

最後，即使在住宅方面，我知道有很多關於利率的討論，但利率正在下降，而且北美確實存在 200 萬至 400 萬套房屋的缺口，需要在某個時候解決。再說一次，這些都是數據點，但它們向我們表明臨界點已經臨近，我們對此非常樂觀。

Thanks. And then secondly, just on the market conditions as we come into the new year, any visibility on where you think scrap may settle out over January here?

謝謝。其次，就我們進入新的一年的市場狀況而言，您認為 1 月廢料市場的情況如何？

Well, it's interesting. We -- I will say scrap has been a bit of an enigma for us. We've been thinking that it was hitting bottom for a while. We were surprised to see scrap down in December. The latest indications that I've heard are flat to up 20% for January, but that remains to be seen.

嗯，很有趣。我們——我想說廢料對我們來說一直是個謎。我們一直認為它已經觸底了。我們很驚訝地發現 12 月廢品率下降。據我所知，最新跡象顯示 1 月銷售額將持平至成長 20%，但這仍有待觀察。

I think the -- as we've gotten closer to these data points, it seems like the -- it seems like they grow negative over time. So -- but flat to up 20% is what we've heard. We do still believe that we are very close to the bottom on scrap. And obviously, a change in the direction of scrap would be a nice catalyst for us in terms of inflecting rebar pricing and merchant pricing.

我認為——隨著我們越來越接近這些數據點，它們似乎——隨著時間的推移似乎呈現負成長。所以 — — 但我們聽到的是持平至上漲 20%。我們仍然相信，廢料價格已非常接近底部。顯然，廢鋼走向的變化對我們來說將是一個很好的催化劑，有利於螺紋鋼價格和商家定價的變動。

(Operator Instructions) Mavis Liu, BNP.

(操作員指示) Mavis Liu, BNP。

My first question is on the rebar demand outlook. Within the presentation, you commented on the highway project and also the housing shortages and their impact on the rebar demand. Just on the timeline, when do you expect those to start to have an impact?

我的第一個問題是關於螺紋鋼需求前景。在演示中，您評論了高速公路項目以及住房短缺及其對鋼筋需求的影響。就時間軸而言，您預計這些什麼時候會開始產生影響？

Yeah. Thank you very much for the question. So on highway demand, it's here. It's happening now. we are very busy on the infrastructure side. And again, given the structure of the program, we expect that to grow over time -- and that is going to be a kind of for the next three to five years, we're going to have strong demand on that front.

是的。非常感謝您的提問。就高速公路需求而言，它就在這裡。它現在就發生。我們在基礎設施方面非常忙碌。而且，考慮到該計劃的結構，我們預計它會隨著時間的推移而增長——在未來三到五年內，我們在這方面的需求將會強勁。

On the residential front, so in 2024, demand was mixed. Single-family wasn't so bad. Multifamily was weaker. If we look at most of the forecasters, including Dodge, what they seem to indicate is that residential will shift back into the positive in 2025 and kind of a small positive uptick in '25 and a much stronger uptick in '26. So exactly when that occurs, it's not entirely clear, but we're optimistic that the demand there is going to be inclined to pull things forward.

在住宅方面，到 2024 年，需求將會好壞參半。單戶住宅並不是那麼糟糕。多戶型住宅表現較弱。如果我們看一下包括道奇在內的大多數預測者，他們似乎都表明，住宅市場將在 2025 年重新轉為正成長，並在 2025 年出現小幅上漲，在 2026 年出現更強勁的上漲。所以具體什麼時候會發生這種情況還不完全清楚，但我們樂觀地認為，那裡的需求將傾向於推動事態發展。

Yeah. Thank you. That's very clear. Just a bit follow-up on that. So actually, we are expecting for some new rebar supply capacity to come online later this fiscal year. What's your view on those additional supply? And also, do you think the additional demands on rebar can offset those additional supply?

是的。謝謝。這非常清楚。只需對此進行一點跟進。因此實際上，我們預計本財年晚些時候將有一些新的螺紋鋼供應能力上線。您對這些額外供應有何看法？另外，您認為螺紋鋼的額外需求可以抵銷額外的供應嗎？

Yeah. We -- so when we look -- we look very carefully at this, as you can imagine, we believe that the kind of the real new supply in the market by kind of new competitors in the market, so to speak, is not such a big number.

是的。所以當我們非常仔細地研究這個問題時，你可以想像，我們認為，市場上新的競爭對手所帶來的真正的新供應量並不是那麼大。

There is a -- obviously, high bar is going to be starting up. That's one increment, and that's going to happen in the second half of 2025. There's an increment that's been put in the market by a group called Optimus, that's already in the market today. So that's not new capacity as we sit here today.

很顯然，高標準即將開始。這是一個增量，將在 2025 年下半年實現。一個名為 Optimus 的組織已將增量產品推向市場，目前該產品已經上市。所以這並不是我們今天在這裡看到的新產能。

And then the rest of it is kind of Nucor and ourselves putting in capacity. And in most instances, we believe that is replacing existing capacity. So we are sanguine about the ability to absorb the incremental capacity given the demand profile that we see and if you think about what we've said in the prepared materials, you can see that from the market that we have today, we expect there to be over 1 million tons of incremental demand over the next several years.

其餘部分則由 Nucor 和我們自己投入產能。在大多數情況下，我們認為這是在取代現有產能。因此，考慮到我們看到的需求狀況，我們對吸收增量產能的能力充滿信心，如果您考慮一下我們在準備的材料中所說的內容，您就會發現，從我們今天的市場來看，我們預計未來幾年增量需求將超過 100 萬噸。

Alex Hacking, Citi.

花旗銀行的亞歷克斯‧哈金 (Alex Hacking)。

I just had one question. I guess just following up on your last comment there, Peter. Your commercial metals are sold around 4 million enough tons or so in North America for the last five, six years. You're adding 1 million tons of capacity between Arizona and West Virginia. How should we think about the mix of that between growth in capacity and replacement capacity? And if rebar demand grows strongly, can CMC ultimately sell 5.5 million tons or there's a chunk of it that's just going to be a replacement?

我只有一個問題。我想這只是你最後一則評論的後續，彼得。過去五、六年來，你們的商業金屬在北美的銷售量大約有 400 萬噸。你們將在亞利桑那州和西維吉尼亞州之間增加 100 萬噸的運力。我們該如何思考產能成長與替代產能的結合？如果螺紋鋼需求強勁成長，CMC最終能否銷售550萬噸螺紋鋼，還是說其中很大一部分只是用來替代呢？

Yeah. Thank you very much. So Arizona, let's just start with Arizona first. Arizona, if you go back a few years, you know we had a plant in California, which we kind of idled and then ultimately sold the property on, right? So Arizona 2 is really the rebuild of that capacity.

是的。非常感謝。那麼亞利桑那州，我們先從亞利桑那州開始。亞利桑那州，如果你回顧幾年前，你知道我們在加州有一家工廠，我們把它閒置了，然後最終把它賣掉了，對嗎？因此亞利桑那州 2 號計畫實際上是對該產能的重建。

So we don't view that as kind of incremental capacity from CMC. We're kind of replacing obsolete capacity that we had, and if you look at the kind of split of what we're expecting to do in Arizona 2, 350,000 tons are expected to go to rebar, about 150,000 tons are expected to go to merchants. So it's exactly offsetting the California capacity.

因此，我們不認為這是 CMC 的一種增量產能。我們正在尋找替代過時的產能，如果您看一下我們預計在亞利桑那州 2 的產量分配情況，預計其中 350,000 噸將用於螺紋鋼，約 150,000 噸將用於銷售。所以它正好抵銷了加州的產能。

If we go to West Virginia, the Northeast is an area where we are kind of underrepresented from a share perspective. And so our perspective on that market is there is room given the demand and the likely demand growth for -- in that market for us to expand capacity a bit with our existing footprint.

如果我們去西維吉尼亞州，從份額的角度來看，東北部是一個代表性不足的地區。因此，我們對該市場的看法是，考慮到需求以及可能的需求成長，我們可以在現有基礎上稍微擴大產能。

So there is some expansion in the case of the West Virginia business. But again, we think it's manageable when we look at our share around the rest of the country relative to that region.

因此，西維吉尼亞州的業務有一些擴張。但是，當我們看看我們在全國其他地區相對於該地區的份額時，我們認為這是可控的。

I guess just following up, Rancho Cucamonga has been closed for a while now, right? So there's still an incremental $1 million. I guess if -- are you planning on idling other capacity, I guess, is more of my question so that -- or if we get strong rebar the mine as we expect over the next several years, you would be able to grow into both Arizona and West Virginia?

我想順便問一下，Rancho Cucamonga 已經關閉了一段時間了，對嗎？因此仍有 100 萬美元的增量。我想，如果——你們是否計劃閒置其他產能，我想，這更多的是我的問題——或者，如果我們在未來幾年內獲得強勁的鋼筋礦，那麼你們是否能夠發展到亞利桑那州和西弗吉尼亞州？

Yeah. What I'd say is we are expecting is -- hopefully, you gather from my prior comments, Alex, that we are expecting rebar demand to grow. And so -- and we are the natural kind of party to fulfill that need. And so yeah, it's really built on the expectation that we have a growing market. To the extent that we do not have a growing market, or the market doesn't grow as quickly as we think we have a system here.

是的。我想說的是，我們預計——亞歷克斯，希望你能從我之前的評論中知道，我們預計螺紋鋼需求將會成長。所以——我們自然是滿足這需求的一方。是的，這確實建立在我們對不斷成長的市場的預期之上。在某種程度上，我們的市場沒有成長，或者市場成長速度沒有我們想像的那麼快，所以我們在這裡建立了一個系統。

And what we like about our system is that we can flex our system up and down to meet the demands in the market. And one thing that I want to be really clear about is that our focus is on value over volume. So we are going to flex our system to meet the demand in the market. And I think that will result in a good outcome for us.

我們對我們的系統感到滿意的一點是，我們可以根據需要靈活調整系統以滿足市場的需求。我想明確指出的一點是，我們關注的是價值而不是數量。因此我們將靈活調整我們的系統來滿足市場的需求。我認為這將為我們帶來好的結果。

[Matt Dushkin], Wolfe Research.

[馬特杜甚金]，沃爾夫研究公司。

So just curious on Europe, let's say, demand is structurally damaged longer term. And just for some reason, German demand doesn't fully bounce back. If that is the case, what levers you off to pull just beyond the TAG initiatives? Or anything else you have in mind?

我只是對歐洲感到好奇，比如說，長期來看，需求受到了結構性的傷害。但出於某種原因，德國的需求並未完全恢復。如果確實如此，那麼是什麼推動您超越 TAG 計劃？或者您還有什麼想法嗎？

Well, again, we've done a lot of work so far. There's always more to do. We have -- as Paul noted in his remarks, we've been rightsizing the operation from a manning perspective. In the event that we were kind of structurally, for some reason, structurally damaged over there or could not see a recovery, we could do some more reductions on that front.

嗯，到目前為止我們已經做了很多工作。總是有更多的事情要做。正如保羅在演講中指出的那樣，我們一直在從人員配備的角度調整營運規模。如果我們出於某種原因在結構上受到損壞或無法恢復，我們可以在這方面進一步削減。

And I think we'd have to kind of turn over more stones and get to just a more bare bones structure until we see a recovery. Now just the positive side of this is that we don't think the scenario you're positing is the scenario. We believe the scenario is that Germany is going to recover. Europe is going to recover. There is going to be an end to the war in Ukraine, and that's going to create some demand here.

我認為，我們必須進行更多的改革，才能得到一個更基本的結構，直到我們看到復甦。現在，積極的一面是，我們不認為您所假設的場景就是這種情況。我們相信德國將會復甦。歐洲將會復甦。烏克蘭戰爭即將結束，這將會產生一些需求。

And given the cost position that we built in Poland, which we are very confident in this low-cost position. When that -- those conditions occur, we're going to see profitability inflect nicely up well before what you might expect.

考慮到我們在波蘭建立的成本地位，我們對這種低成本地位非常有信心。當這些情況發生時，我們將看到獲利能力比你預期的要好得多。

And the other thing that I would say is that -- when you look at Poland, and we always talk about breakeven. We want to get the business to breakeven. And when we're talking about breakeven, we're talking about breakeven, excluding all of these energy credits and so forth that we've been getting.

我想說的另一件事是——當你看看波蘭時，我們總是談論損益平衡。我們希望業務能夠達到收支平衡。當我們談論損益平衡時，我們談論的是損益平衡，不包括我們已經獲得的所有能源信用等。

If we factor those energy credits in, we're actually generating a profit there and we are cash flow positive there. So our perspective is -- this business is a business that has contributed a tremendous amount. To your point on TAG, the Polish team is great steelmakers, and they've given us a lot of really powerful ideas that can help our network across North America. So it's a business that we're really proud of what they've done, and we think there's a bright future for them.

如果我們將這些能源信用考慮在內，我們實際上就在那裡產生了利潤，並且我們的現金流為正。因此，我們的觀點是－這項業務是一項做出巨大貢獻的業務。正如您在 TAG 上提到的，波蘭團隊是優秀的鋼鐵製造商，他們為我們提供了許多非常有力的想法，可以幫助我們建立遍布北美的網路。因此，我們對他們所做的一切感到非常自豪，我們認為他們的未來一片光明。

At this time, there appear to be no further questions. Mr. Matt, I'll now turn the call back over to you for closing remarks.

目前，似乎沒有其他問題。馬特先生，現在我將把電話轉回給您，請您作結束語。

Thank you. At CMC, we remain confident that our best days are ahead. The combination of the structural demand trends we have noted, operational and commercial excellence initiatives to strengthen our through-the-cycle performance, and value-accretive growth opportunities create an exciting future for our company. We are committed to a balanced capital allocation strategy that includes investments in our company's future and a return of capital to our shareholders.

謝謝。在 CMC，我們堅信最好的日子就在前方。我們注意到的結構性需求趨勢、旨在增強我們整個週期績效的營運和商業卓越舉措以及價值增值的成長機會相結合，為我們公司創造了令人興奮的未來。我們致力於平衡的資本配置策略，包括對公司未來的投資和向股東返還資本。

Thank you for joining us on today's conference call. We look forward to speaking with many of you during our investor calls in the coming days and weeks. Thank you very much.

感謝您參加我們今天的電話會議。我們期待在未來幾天和幾週的投資者電話會議中與你們交談。非常感謝。

This concludes today's CMC conference call. You may now disconnect.

今天的 CMC 電話會議到此結束。您現在可以斷開連線。