Commercial Metals Co (CMC) 2023 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Hello, and welcome, everyone, to the Fourth Quarter Fiscal 2023 Earnings Call for CMC. Today's materials, including the press release and supplemental slides that accompany this call can be found on CMC's Investor Relations website. Today's call is being recorded. After the company's remarks, we will have a question-and-answer session, and we'll have a few instructions at that time.

大家好，歡迎大家參加 CMC 2023 年第四季財報電話會議。今天的資料，包括本次電話會議附帶的新聞稿和補充幻燈片，可以在 CMC 的投資者關係網站上找到。今天的通話正在錄音。公司發言結束後，我們會有一個問答環節，到時候我們會有一些指示。

I would like to remind all participants that during the course of this conference call, the company will make statements that provide information other than historical information and will include expectations regarding economic conditions; effects of legislation; U.S. steel import levels; construction activity; demand for finished steel products; the expected capabilities; benefits and time line for construction of new facilities; the company's future operations; the time line for construction of new facilities; the time line for execution of the company's growth plan; the company's future results of operations, financial measures and capital spending.

我想提醒所有與會者，在本次電話會議期間，公司將發表聲明，提供歷史資訊以外的信息，並將包括對經濟狀況的預期；立法的影響；美國鋼鐵進口水準；建築活動；對鋼材成品的需求；預期的能力；新設施建設的效益和時間表；公司未來的營運；新設施建設的時間表；執行公司發展計劃的時間表；公司未來的經營績效、財務措施及資本支出。

These and other similar statements are considered forward-looking and may involve certain assumptions and speculation and are subject to risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results to differ materially from these expectations. These statements reflect the company's beliefs based on current conditions that are subject to certain risks and uncertainties, including those that are described in the Risk Factors and Forward-Looking Statements sections of the company's latest filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission, including the company's latest annual report on Form 10-K and quarterly report on Form 10-Q.

這些和其他類似的陳述被認為是前瞻性的，可能涉及某些假設和猜測，並受到可能導致實際結果與這些預期有重大差異的風險和不確定性的影響。這些陳述反映了公司基於當前條件的信念，這些條件受到某些風險和不確定性的影響，包括公司向美國證券交易委員會提交的最新文件的風險因素和前瞻性陳述部分中描述的那些風險和不確定性，包括公司的最新報告年度報告（表格 10-K）和季度報告（表格 10-Q）。

Although these statements are based on management's current expectations and beliefs, CMC offers no assurance that these expectations or beliefs will prove to be correct, and actual results may differ materially. All statements are made only as of this date. Except as required by law, CMC does not assume any obligation to update, amend or clarify these statements in connection with future events, changes in assumptions, the occurrence of anticipated or unanticipated events, new information or circumstances or otherwise.

儘管這些陳述是基於管理層當前的期望和信念，但 CMC 不保證這些期望或信念將被證明是正確的，並且實際結果可能存在重大差異。所有聲明僅截至當日作出。除法律要求外，CMC 不承擔任何更新、修改或澄清與未來事件、假設變更、預期或意外事件發生、新資訊或情況或其他相關的聲明的義務。

Some numbers presented will be non-GAAP financial measures, and reconciliations for such numbers can be found in the company's earnings release, supplemental slide presentation or on the company's website. Unless stated otherwise, all references made to year or quarter end are references to the company's fiscal year or fiscal quarter. And now for opening remarks and introductions, I will turn the call over to the Executive Chairman of the Board of CMC, Ms. Barbara Smith.

提供的一些數據將是非公認會計原則財務指標，這些數據的調節可以在公司的收益發布、補充幻燈片演示或公司網站上找到。除非另有說明，否則所有提及年末或季末的內容均指本公司的會計年度或會計季度。現在，我將向 CMC 董事會執行主席芭芭拉史密斯 (Barbara Smith) 女士致開幕詞和介紹。

Thank you. Good morning, everyone. Thank you for attending CMC's fourth quarter earnings conference call. As we reported in our press release this morning, it was another period of historically strong financial results. I would like to thank CMC's 13,000 employees who made these results possible. Your hard work and focused efforts are driving our success. I'm joined this morning's call by CMC's President and Chief Executive Officer, Peter Matt; and our Senior Vice President and Chief Financial Officer, Paul Lawrence.

謝謝。大家，早安。感謝您參加 CMC 第四季財報電話會議。正如我們今天早上在新聞稿中報導的那樣，這是另一個歷史上強勁的財務業績時期。我要感謝 CMC 的 13,000 名員工，是他們讓這些成果成為可能。您的辛勤工作和專注努力正在推動我們的成功。今天上午，CMC 總裁兼執行長 Peter Matt 參加了我的電話會議。以及我們的資深副總裁兼財務長 Paul Lawrence。

We will start today's discussion with comments on CMC's fiscal 2023 results and accomplishments during the year. Peter will then discuss fourth quarter performance, provide commentary on current market conditions and offer an update on CMC's strategic growth projects. Paul will cover the fourth quarter's financial information in more detail, and Peter will conclude with our outlook for the first quarter of fiscal 2024, after which we will open the call to questions.

我們將先評論 CMC 2023 財年的業績和成就，開始今天的討論。隨後，Peter 將討論第四季的業績，對當前市場狀況發表評論，並提供 CMC 策略成長項目的最新情況。 Paul 將更詳細地介紹第四季度的財務信息，Peter 將總結我們對 2024 財年第一季的展望，之後我們將開始提問。

Fiscal 2023 was another exceptional year for CMC, one that included record employee safety performance, historically strong financial results and solid progress on our announced growth initiatives, including several strategic bolt-on acquisitions. As you know, the company and its Board of Directors began implementing a CEO succession plan this year. I announced my retirement as CEO in July, and our Board unanimously voted to appoint Peter Matt as CMC's new Chief Executive, effective September 1.

2023 財年對 CMC 來說又是非凡的一年，員工安全績效創歷史新高，財務業績創歷史新高，我們宣布的成長計畫（包括多項策略性補充收購）取得了紮實進展。如您所知，該公司及其董事會今年開始實施執行長繼任計畫。我於 7 月宣布辭去執行長職務，董事會一致投票任命 Peter Matt 為 CMC 新任首席執行官，自 9 月 1 日起生效。

My fellow directors and I are extremely confident in Peter's ability to lead CMC through this next chapter, and I look forward to continuing to support the company as Executive Chairman of the Board.

我和我的董事們對 Peter 領導 CMC 度過新篇章的能力充滿信心，我期待著繼續作為董事會執行主席支持公司。

Turning now to our financial results. CMC generated core EBITDA of $1.46 billion in fiscal 2023, down only modestly from the record of $1.55 billion set in fiscal 2022. Without proper context, it's easy to lose sight of just how impressive these figures are. During each of the last 2 years, CMC's core EBITDA was nearly double that of any previous record year and was more than 4x higher than the average annual EBITDA during the decade prior to the completion of our strategic transformation.

現在轉向我們的財務表現。 CMC 在 2023 財年的核心 EBITDA 為 14.6 億美元，僅比 2022 財年創下的 15.5 億美元的記錄略有下降。如果沒有適當的背景，人們很容易忽視這些數字有多麼令人印象深刻。在過去兩年中，CMC 的核心 EBITDA 幾乎是先前創紀錄年份的兩倍，並且比完成策略轉型前十年的平均年度 EBITDA 高出 4 倍以上。

These remarkable results clearly demonstrate the impact of the thoughtful and decisive strategic actions we took over the last several years, which have enabled us to significantly grow our company and set us on a path for continued success. Fiscal 2023's strong reported net income translated into an annual return on invested capital of 18%. This is well in excess of CMC's cost of capital and an unmistakable indication of the value we are creating for our shareholders.

這些卓越的成果清楚地表明了我們在過去幾年中採取的深思熟慮和果斷的策略行動的影響，這些行動使我們能夠顯著發展我們的公司，並為我們走上持續成功的道路。 2023 財年強勁的淨利潤轉化為 18% 的年度投資報酬率。這遠遠超出了 CMC 的資本成本，明確表明了我們正在為股東創造的價值。

Of the accomplishments achieved in fiscal 2023, we are most proud of our record employee safety performance. It's CMC's mission that each employee leaves the work site at the end of each day in the same condition in which he or she arrived. CMC's safety culture of proactive awareness, accountability and innovation continues to move us forward to our goal of 0 incidents. Last year's incident rate was tied for the lowest on record, and the number of OSHA recordables declined from the prior year despite having more employees at more sites and enduring unusually hot weather across most of our operational footprint.

在 2023 財年的成就中，我們最自豪的是我們創紀錄的員工安全績效。 CMC 的使命是讓每位員工在每天結束時離開工作現場時保持與到達時相同的狀態。 CMC 積極主動的意識、責任感和創新的安全文化繼續推動我們向零事故的目標邁進。去年的事故發生率與有史以來的最低水平持平，儘管我們在更多地點配備了更多員工，並且我們的大部分運營區域都經歷了異常炎熱的天氣，但OSHA 可記錄數量仍較上一年有所下降。

Additionally, 114 of our facilities were incident-free. While we are pleased with the continued improvement, the safety mission is never complete, and we will continue to push forward toward our goal. CMC continued to make solid progress on our strategic growth initiatives during fiscal 2023. Peter will provide more details in his remarks, but at a high level, this includes the operational startup of Arizona 2, continued growth in Tensar's EBITDA contribution and the execution of several strategic bolt-on acquisitions.

此外，我們的 114 個設施沒有發生任何事故。雖然我們對持續改進感到高興，但安全使命永遠不會完成，我們將繼續朝著我們的目標前進。 CMC 在2023 財年繼續在我們的策略成長計畫上取得紮實進展。Peter 將在他的演講中提供更多細節，但在較高層面上，這包括Arizona 2 的營運啟動、坦薩EBITDA 貢獻的持續成長以及多項計劃的執行策略性補強收購。

As I enter my retirement and evaluate CMC today, I could not be more pleased with where we stand. The company has a very strong foundation comprising of an excellent culture, great employees, leading market positions, a compelling growth strategy and a balance sheet that provides tremendous confidence and flexibility. I know with Peter's leadership and the support of all 13,000 employees, the future of CMC is as bright as it's ever been.

當我今天退休並評估 CMC 時，我對我們的現狀感到非常滿意。該公司擁有非常堅實的基礎，包括優秀的文化、優秀的員工、領先的市場地位、引人注目的成長策略以及提供巨大信心和靈活性的資產負債表。我知道，在 Peter 的領導和全體 13,000 名員工的支持下，CMC 的未來將一如既往地光明。

Before I turn the call over to Peter, I would like to express my deep gratitude to the many people on this call that have shown me so much support over the years. It's been my privilege to work with you and to call many of you, my friends. Peter, over to you.

在將電話轉給彼得之前，我要向參加這次電話會議的許多人表示深深的謝意，他們多年來對我給予瞭如此多的支持。我很榮幸能與你們一起工作，並給你們中的許多人打電話，我的朋友們。彼得，交給你了。

Thank you, Barbara. It's an honor to take the helm of a company you so masterfully led for much of the last decade, and good morning to everyone on the call. CMC's fourth quarter financial results were among the strongest in our company's history, though down slightly from recent record levels. CMC generated net earnings of $184.2 million or $1.56 per diluted share on net sales of $2.2 billion.

謝謝你，芭芭拉。我很榮幸能夠掌管一家你在過去十年的大部分時間裡出色地領導的公司，並向參加電話會議的每個人都早安。 CMC 第四季的財務表現是該公司歷史上最強勁的業績之一，儘管較最近的創紀錄水平略有下降。 CMC 淨利潤為 1.842 億美元，即每股攤薄收益 1.56 美元，淨銷售額為 22 億美元。

Excluding the impact of nonoperational items, which Paul will cover in detail, adjusted earnings were $200 million or $1.69 per diluted share. CMC generated consolidated core EBITDA for the quarter of $340 million, producing an annualized return on invested capital of 15.2%. Once again, our North American segment demonstrated remarkable resilience, posting its 11th consecutive quarter of year-over-year adjusted EBITDA growth, excluding the gain on the sale of land recognized during the second quarter of fiscal '22. Even more impressive, excluding the land sale, our North American segment has increased EBITDA on a year-over-year basis in 21 of the last 22 quarters.

排除保羅將詳細介紹的非經營性項目的影響，調整後收益為 2 億美元，即稀釋後每股收益 1.69 美元。 CMC 本季的綜合核心 EBITDA 為 3.4 億美元，年化投資資本報酬率為 15.2%。我們的北美部門再次表現出非凡的韌性，連續第 11 個季度調整後 EBITDA 同比增長，不包括 22 財年第二季度確認的土地出售收益。更令人印象深刻的是，不包括土地銷售，我們的北美業務在過去 22 個季度中有 21 個季度的 EBITDA 年成長。

Turning now to CMC's markets in North America. Rebar shipments remained healthy during the fourth quarter, and total finished steel volumes increased on a year-over-year basis. Activity levels across our geographies and into our various customer groups were consistent with the prior quarter. Overall, the seasonal volume pattern was very normal. The data we track indicates that annualized rebar consumption remained between 9 million and 9.5 million tons during the third and fourth quarters.

現在轉向 CMC 在北美的市場。第四季螺紋鋼出貨量保持健康，成品鋼材總量較去年同期成長。我們各個地區和各個客戶群的活動水準與上一季一致。整體而言，季節性成交量格局非常正常。我們追蹤的數據顯示，第三季和第四季螺紋鋼年化消費量仍維持在 900 萬噸至 950 萬噸之間。

This level is consistent with the rate that has prevailed since early calendar 2021, which is a 5% to 10% increase compared to the pre-pandemic average. Strong pricing and demand conditions for domestic rebar have started to diverge from the weaker global environment and growth within the U.S. construction sector similarly stands in contrast to most other global regions. This robust relative demand has attracted rebar imports from nontraditional suppliers who have put pressure on domestic pricing in recent months.

這一水平與 2021 年初以來的普遍水平一致，與大流行前的平均值相比增加了 5% 至 10%。國內螺紋鋼強勁的定價和需求狀況已開始與疲軟的全球環境背道而馳，美國建築業的成長同樣與大多數其他全球地區形成鮮明對比。這種強勁的相對需求吸引了來自非傳統供應商的螺紋鋼進口，這些供應商近幾個月給國內定價帶來了壓力。

Despite these more challenging conditions, we expect CMC's North American business to continue generating margins well in excess of historical average levels, but down from the record highs of recent quarters.

儘管面臨這些更具挑戰性的條件，我們預計 CMC 的北美業務利潤率將繼續遠超過歷史平均水平，但低於最近幾季的歷史高點。

Turning to key forward indicators. CMC's new downstream bid volumes continued to grow by a solid double-digit percentage during the fourth quarter, signaling a large and expanding pipeline of potential future construction projects. Our internal view is directionally consistent with the Dodge Momentum Index, which measures the value of nonresidential projects entering the planning phase and tends to lead on the ground activity by approximately 12 months.

轉向關鍵的前瞻指標。第四季度，CMC 的新下游投標量繼續以兩位數百分比穩定成長，顯示未來潛在建設項目規模龐大且不斷擴大。我們的內部觀點與道奇動量指數在方向上一致，該指數衡量進入規劃階段的非住宅項目的價值，並且往往領先於實地活動約 12 個月。

The index registered an average year-over-year increase of 15% during the 3 months of CMC's fiscal fourth quarter with both institutional and commercial components improving from the prior year. While bid levels indicate an attractive future pipeline, we have experienced a slowdown in the rate at which contracts are awarded, which in turn, has caused some reduction to the volume and the value of CMC's downstream backlog.

在 CMC 第四財季的 3 個月內，該指數平均年增 15%，機構和商業成分均較上年有所改善。雖然投標水準表明未來管道具有吸引力，但我們的合約授予速度有所放緩，這反過來又導致 CMC 下游積壓訂單的數量和價值有所減少。

Compared to the prior year, our quarter-end backlog value declined by 8%. Based on our observations and conversations with customers, we believe there are a couple of factors driving the slowed pace of project awards. The first is tightness in the market for construction labor, particularly specialty trades that continues to constrain project scheduling. Rather than incur construction delays driven by a lack of labor availability, some owners may choose to wait to award and construct the project. CMC and several other construction suppliers have discussed this dynamic in the past, and we believe it is likely to extend the duration of the current cycle.

與去年同期相比，我們的季末積壓訂單價值下降了 8%。根據我們的觀察和與客戶的對話，我們認為有幾個因素導致專案授予速度放緩。首先是建築勞動市場的緊張，特別是特種產業，這繼續限制了專案進度。一些業主可能會選擇等待授予和建設項目，而不是因缺乏勞動力而導致施工延誤。 CMC 和其他幾家建築供應商過去曾討論過這一動態，我們認為這可能會延長當前週期的持續時間。

The second factor is a tighter credit market for many types of commercial projects. Current lending conditions do not preclude projects from obtaining financing, but the higher -- but the economic hurdles are higher. This dynamic also lengthens the amount of time between project bidding and awards. Given the backlog contraction discussed, volumes of downstream products are likely to decline modestly on a year-over-year basis during the next couple of quarters. All that said, our downstream backlog remains at historically high levels and should continue to support healthy shipment levels going forward.

第二個因素是多種商業項目的信貸市場趨緊。目前的貸款條件並不妨礙專案獲得融資，但融資條件越高—但經濟障礙就越高。這種動態也延長了專案招標和授予之間的時間。鑑於所討論的積壓收縮，下游產品的數量在接下來的幾個季度可能會同比小幅下降。話雖如此，我們的下游積壓仍處於歷史高位，並應繼續支持未來健康的出貨水準。

Looking beyond these near-term dynamics, we remain very confident in the long-term outlook for our business, driven by powerful structural trends that are remaking much of our economy and should bolster construction activity for years to come. Enormous investments have been announced with some already underway to improve our nation's transportation infrastructure, reshore vital manufacturing and upgrade the electric transmission grid to facilitate the transition to renewable energy. Each of these trends will benefit not just rebar consumption but provide a meaningful tailwind to our Tensar engineered solutions and other value-added product lines as well.

除了這些近期動態之外，我們對業務的長期前景仍然非常有信心，這是由強大的結構性趨勢推動的，這些趨勢正在重塑我們的經濟，並應在未來幾年促進建築活動。巨額投資已經宣布，其中一些投資已經開始，以改善我國的交通基礎設施、重新安置重要的製造業併升級輸電網，以促進向再生能源的過渡。這些趨勢不僅有利於螺紋鋼的消費，而且還為我們的坦薩工程解決方案和其他加值產品線提供了有意義的推動力。

We have frequently discussed the Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act, IIJA, and its anticipated benefit to rebar demand. At run rate levels of spending, we expect IIJA to add an incremental 1.5 million tons of annual consumption. There are clear signs that enormous amounts of work are moving through the pipeline as evidenced by data from Dodge Analytics, which tracks infrastructure projects in their predesign and design phases.

我們經常討論《基礎設施投資和就業法案》(IIJA) 及其對螺紋鋼需求的預期好處。依照支出運行率水平，我們預計 IIJA 年消費量將增加 150 萬噸。有明顯跡象表明，大量工作正在醞釀中，Dodge Analytics 的數據證明了這一點，該公司追蹤基礎設施項目的預設計和設計階段。

According to this data, the value of early phase projects increased over sevenfold on a year-over-year basis during the 3 months ending in August. Once designed, those projects will move to budgeting, funding and letting phases. It is after the letting phase that contracts are awarded, resources are scheduled and on-the-ground activity can begin.

根據該數據，截至 8 月的三個月內，早期專案的價值年增了七倍多。一旦設計完成，這些項目將進入預算、融資和租賃階段。在租賃階段之後，將授予合約、安排資源並開始實地活動。

We have already seen the value of state transportation projects awarded year-to-date through July increased by 18% compared to the prior year, according to the American Road and Transportation Builders Association, ARTBA. This year-to-date figure represents a 43% increase from just 2 years ago. Also, according to the ARTBA, total state Department of Transportation Highway budgets are set to increase by 13% in fiscal 2024, which, for most states started in July.

根據美國道路和交通建設者協會 (ARTBA) 的數據，我們已經看到今年截至 7 月授予的州交通項目的價值比上年增長了 18%。今年迄今的數字比兩年前增加了 43%。此外，根據 ARTBA 的數據，州交通運輸部的公路預算總額預計將在 2024 財年增加 13%，大多數州的預算從 7 月開始。

Several states in our core Sun Belt region are budgeting even larger increases. As an example, Texas, by far, CMC's largest state by shipments recently proposed a 17% expansion to its 10-year DOT budget. Based on these signals, we expect that by next year's construction season, the IIJA and increased state DOT budget should have a material impact on construction activity and rebar consumption.

我們核心陽光帶地區的幾個州正在製定更大幅度的預算成長。例如，德州是迄今為止 CMC 出貨量最大的州，最近提議將其 10 年 DOT 預算擴大 17%。基於這些訊號，我們預計到明年的建築季節，IIJA 和增加的州交通部預算應對建築活動和螺紋鋼消費產生重大影響。

Apart from transportation, the announced investments in major reassuring and energy transition projects are staggering. The $52 billion CHIPS act has helped drive over $315 billion of announced projects to build semiconductor fabrication plants and supporting facilities over the coming decade. These massive installations are generally constructed in multiple phases, spanning several years and require unparalleled amounts of rebar. The necessary structural rigidity and broad footprint also make these facilities strong candidates for Tensar soil stabilization solutions.

除了交通運輸外，宣布的重大令人放心的投資和能源轉型項目的投資也令人震驚。價值 520 億美元的 CHIPS 法案已幫助推動了未來十年超過 3,150 億美元的已宣布項目，用於建造半導體製造工廠和配套設施。這些大型設施通常分多個階段建設，歷時數年，需要大量的鋼筋。必要的結構剛性和廣泛的佔地面積也使這些設施成為坦薩土壤穩定解決方案的有力候選者。

Additionally, the scale of the semiconductor plants and their workforces attract investments from suppliers, retail stores, restaurants, et cetera, and require expenditures for local infrastructure, all of which consume rebar. Approximately $150 billion of investments in electric vehicle and EV battery manufacturing have been announced since 2021, according to the Environmental Defense Fund. The expected spending on energy transition is similarly impressive.

此外，半導體工廠及其勞動力的規模吸引了供應商、零售店、餐廳等的投資，並需要當地基礎設施的支出，所有這些都消耗螺紋鋼。據美國環境保護基金會稱，自 2021 年以來，已宣布對電動車和電動車電池製造進行約 1,500 億美元的投資。能源轉型的預期支出同樣令人印象深刻。

According to the American Clean Power Association, roughly $150 billion of renewable energy projects have been announced during the 12 months ended in August with an additional $22 billion being invested in the construction of clean energy manufacturing facilities to produce utility-scale batteries, wind turbines and solar panels. The $250 billion IRA is expected to support these projects and additional energy transition and manufacturing projects in the future, which presents a significant opportunity for CMC.

據美國清潔能源協會稱，截至8 月的12 個月內，已宣布了約1500 億美元的可再生能源項目，另外投資220 億美元用於建設清潔能源製造設施，生產公用事業規模的電池、風力渦輪機和太陽能板。 2500 億美元的 IRA 預計將支持這些項目以及未來的其他能源轉型和製造項目，這為 CMC 提供了重大機會。

Our rebar is used in the foundation and structure of the manufacturing facilities as well as the foundations of wind turbines. Tensar's engineered solutions are used extensively for temporary and service roads to access wind farms and solar fields. Additionally, CMC's anchor cage business, which was acquired through our purchase of EDSCO provides foundation support to the transmission lines that will carry electricity from new energy projects to the grid.

我們的鋼筋用於製造設施的基礎和結構以及風力渦輪機的基礎。坦薩的工程解決方案廣泛用於通往風電場和太陽能發電場的臨時道路和輔助道路。此外，透過收購EDSCO而獲得的CMC錨籠業務為將新能源項目的電力輸送到電網的輸電線路提供了基礎支援。

Taken together, the construction activity required to upgrade our nation's infrastructure, harden critical supply chains and transition to greener energy is expected to provide a meaningful tailwind to CMC's North America operation for years to come. I'll now turn to Europe, where market conditions are challenging. Sluggish demand and excess supply have combined to put pressure on pricing and compressed margins. General economic uncertainty continues to negatively impact sentiment and activity levels across our key end markets.

總而言之，升級我國基礎設施、強化關鍵供應鏈和向綠色能源轉型所需的建設活動預計將為 CMC 的北美業務在未來幾年提供有意義的推動力。我現在要談歐洲，那裡的市場狀況充滿挑戰。需求疲軟和供應過剩共同給定價帶來壓力並壓縮利潤。總體經濟不確定性持續對我們主要終端市場的情緒和活動水平產生負面影響。

Additionally, high interest rates, despite recent Central Bank easing, remain an overhang to the Polish residential construction sector. We responded to the current market imbalances by reducing costs and rightsizing production and believe that others have done the same. These supply side adjustments should help stabilize the market. The environment in Europe is currently difficult, but will normalize. We remain committed to our strategic presence in Poland, which greatly out earns its cost of capital over the course of an economic cycle and provide CMC with valuable optionality for the future.

此外，儘管央行最近實施了寬鬆政策，但高利率仍然是波蘭住宅建築業的懸念。我們透過降低成本和調整生產規模來應對當前的市場失衡，並相信其他公司也做了同樣的事情。這些供給側調整應該有助於穩定市場。歐洲的環境目前很困難，但會正常化。我們仍然致力於在波蘭的戰略存在，這在整個經濟週期中大大超過了資本成本，並為 CMC 的未來提供了寶貴的選擇。

We have an exceptional team in Poland as well as best-in-class cost structure that ensures our long-term competitiveness. As noted in our press release, CMC's first quarter results are expected to benefit from 2 large rebates totaling $60 million, which we will discuss more fully during our outlook commentary.

我們在波蘭擁有一支出色的團隊以及一流的成本結構，確保了我們的長期競爭力。正如我們在新聞稿中指出的那樣，CMC 第一季的業績預計將受益於總計 6000 萬美元的兩次大額回扣，我們將在展望評論中更全面地討論這一點。

Before turning the call over to Paul, I would like to provide an update on CMC's key strategic growth projects where we have made significant progress during the quarter. First, we successfully started operations at our new state-of-the-art Arizona 2 micro mill, and we are now in the process of ramping up output. This is an exciting milestone and the culmination of years of effort by our team on site and support staff across the company.

在將電話轉給 Paul 之前，我想介紹一下 CMC 關鍵策略成長專案的最新情況，我們在本季度已在這些專案上取得了重大進展。首先，我們最先進的新 Arizona 2 微型工廠成功開始運營，現在我們正在提高產量。這是一個令人興奮的里程碑，也是我們現場團隊和全公司支援人員多年努力的結晶。

As a reminder, we are targeting 500,000 tons of output at full run rate comprised of 350,000 tons of rebar and 150,000 tons of merchant product. Initially, the mill will focus on increasing rebar production before commissioning merchant later in fiscal 2024. We anticipate fiscal 2024 production to approach 400,000 tons and expect to achieve EBITDA breakeven by the end of the first half of fiscal 2024.

提醒一下，我們的目標是滿載生產 50 萬噸，其中包括 35 萬噸螺紋鋼和 15 萬噸商業產品。最初，該鋼廠將專注於增加螺紋鋼產量，然後在 2024 財年晚些時候投產。我們預計 2024 財年產量將接近 40 萬噸，並預計到 2024 財年上半年末實現 EBITDA 盈虧平衡。

Beyond steel, we made meaningful progress on our Tensar platform. The division achieved its highest quarterly EBITDA to date, driven by strong customer adoption of its latest proprietary offering, InterAx. The new product is being recognized by customers for delivering strong value by reducing construction time, lowering project costs and increasing asset life. Our financial performance is also benefiting from improved manufacturing performance and the integration of the recently acquired Geogrid production line in Oklahoma.

除了鋼鐵之外，我們在坦薩平台上也取得了有意義的進展。在客戶對其最新專有產品 InterAx 的大力採用的推動下，該部門實現了迄今為止最高的季度 EBITDA。該新產品因縮短施工時間、降低專案成本和延長資產壽命而提供強大價值而受到客戶認可。我們的財務表現也受益於製造績效的提高以及最近收購的俄克拉荷馬州土工格柵生產線的整合。

CMC continued to expand its commercial portfolio in the fourth quarter with the acquisition of EDSCO, a manufacturer of rebar anchor cages for the electrical transmission and wind energy markets. The company is a leader in its space and poised to benefit from anticipated strong growth in U.S. energy markets. This transaction is an example of the type of value-accretive bolt-on acquisitions we will continue to pursue, which deepen, broaden and diversify our construction reinforcement offering to customers and enhance our margin profile.

CMC 在第四季度繼續擴大其商業投資組合，收購了 EDSCO，一家為電力傳輸和風能市場生產鋼筋錨籠的製造商。該公司是該領域的領導者，並準備從美國能源市場的預期強勁成長中受益。這筆交易是我們將繼續追求的增值補強收購類型的一個例子，它將深化、擴大和多樣化我們為客戶提供的建築加固產品，並提高我們的利潤狀況。

In addition, we conducted the groundbreaking ceremony at Steel West Virginia earlier this summer. Our operations and leadership teams are on site and early construction activity is now underway.

此外，今年夏天早些時候，我們還在西維吉尼亞鋼鐵公司舉行了奠基儀式。我們的營運和領導團隊已到達現場，早期施工活動正在進行中。

One final note, earlier this month, CMC announced a refresh brand and logo to better reflect our strategic direction. Commercial Metals Company now has become CMC, a name that both ties our organization towards strong legacy and broadens its horizon beyond metals to include an expanded array of engineered solutions. CMC strives to become the clear leader in early phase construction solutions, which requires offering our customers value options across a number of platforms and materials.

最後一點，本月早些時候，CMC 宣布更新品牌和標誌，以更好地反映我們的策略方向。 Commercial Metals Company 現在已更名為 CMC，這個名稱既將我們的組織與強大的傳統聯繫在一起，又將其視野擴展到金屬之外，包括一系列擴展的工程解決方案。 CMC 致力於成為早期施工解決方案的明確領導者，這需要為我們的客戶提供多種平台和材料的價值選擇。

The company's new brand reflects who we are today and our broader aspirations for the future. With that, I will now turn the call over to Paul to provide more detail on our financial results. Paul?

公司的新品牌反映了我們今天的形像以及我們對未來的更廣泛的願望。現在，我將把電話轉給保羅，以提供有關我們財務業績的更多詳細資訊。保羅？

Thank you, Peter, and good morning to everyone on the call. As noted earlier, we reported fiscal fourth quarter 2023 net earnings of $184.2 million or $1.56 per diluted share compared to prior year levels of $288.6 million and $2.40, respectively. Results this quarter include net after-tax charges of $15.7 million related to the ongoing commissioning efforts of Arizona 2 and the impairment of a downstream asset.

謝謝你，彼得，祝所有參加電話會議的人早安。如前所述，我們公佈的 2023 財年第四季淨利為 1.842 億美元，稀釋後每股收益為 1.56 美元，而去年同期分別為 2.886 億美元和 2.40 美元。本季業績包括與亞利桑那州 2 號正在進行的調試工作以及下游資產減損相關的 1,570 萬美元的稅後淨費用。

Excluding these items, adjusted earnings were $199.9 million or $1.69 per diluted share in comparison to adjusted earnings of $294.9 million or $2.45 per diluted share during the prior year period. Core EBITDA was $340 million for the fourth quarter of 2023, representing a decline from the $419 million generated during the prior year period, but still among the 5 most profitable quarters in CMC history.

排除這些項目，調整後收益為 1.999 億美元，即稀釋後每股收益 1.69 美元，而去年同期調整後收益為 2.949 億美元，即稀釋後每股收益 2.45 美元。 2023 年第四季的核心 EBITDA 為 3.4 億美元，較去年同期的 4.19 億美元有所下降，但仍躋身 CMC 史上利潤最高的 5 個季度之列。

Slide 13 of the supplemental presentation illustrates the year-to-year changes in CMC's quarterly results. Our North America segment achieved earnings growth, while Europe experienced a significant reduction from the strong results posted in the prior year quarter. Consolidated core EBITDA per ton of finished steel was $221, which remained well above historical levels and compared to $269 per ton a year ago.

補充簡報的投影片 13 顯示了 CMC 季度業績的年比變化。我們的北美部門實現了獲利成長，而歐洲部門的獲利較去年同期的強勁業績大幅下降。每噸成品鋼的綜合核心 EBITDA 為 221 美元，仍遠高於歷史水平，而一年前為每噸 269 美元。

CMC's North American segment generated adjusted EBITDA of $375.3 million for the quarter, equal to $327 per ton of finished steel shipped. Segment adjusted EBITDA improved 1% on a year-over-year basis. The increase was primarily the result of an expansion in the margin of average downstream selling price over scrap costs as well as lower controllable costs per ton. Improvement in controllable costs occurred despite additional expenses related to the start-up of Arizona 2 and a major planned upgrade outage at one of our merchant bar mills.

CMC 北美部門本季調整後 EBITDA 為 3.753 億美元，相當於每噸成品鋼材運輸 327 美元。部門調整後 EBITDA 較去年同期成長 1%。成長的主要原因是下游平均售價相對廢鋼成本的差距擴大以及噸可控成本降低。儘管與亞利桑那 2 號的啟動和我們的一家商業棒材廠計劃的重大升級停運相關的額外費用，可控成本仍然有所改善。

Turning to Slide 15 of the supplemental deck. Our Europe segment reported an adjusted EBITDA loss of $25.7 million for the fourth quarter of 2023 compared to positive EBITDA of $64.1 million in the prior year period. The decline was primarily driven by lower average selling price, a reduction in shipment volumes and higher cost for energy. CMC's energy costs remain competitively positioned relative to the broader European industry, but no longer provide us with the outsized advantage we enjoyed in fiscal 2022.

轉向補充投影片的第 15 張投影片。我們的歐洲部門報告 2023 年第四季調整後 EBITDA 虧損 2,570 萬美元，而去年同期的 EBITDA 為正 6,410 萬美元。下降的主要原因是平均售價下降、出貨量減少以及能源成本上升。相對於更廣泛的歐洲產業，CMC 的能源成本仍具有競爭力，但不再為我們提供 2022 財年所享有的巨大優勢。

Europe volumes decreased 9% compared to the prior year quarter, driven by lower Polish construction activity and muted European industrial production.

由於波蘭建築活動減少和歐洲工業生產低迷，歐洲銷售量較去年同期下降 9%。

Tensar generated EBITDA of $22.6 million during the fourth quarter, providing the largest earnings contribution yet as a division of CMC. The EBITDA performance yielded a margin of 28%, up meaningfully from the prior year quarter. The increase was driven by strong customer acceptance of Tensar's latest proprietary Geogrid solution, InterAx, as well as improved domestic manufacturing performance.

坦薩第四季的 EBITDA 為 2,260 萬美元，是 CMC 部門迄今為止最大的獲利貢獻。 EBITDA 業績利潤率為 28%，較去年同期大幅成長。這一成長的推動因素是客戶對坦薩最新專有土工格柵解決方案 InterAx 的強烈接受，以及國內製造績效的提高。

As a reminder, Tensar performance is included within CMC's existing segments. Of the $22.4 million in EBITDA, $18.2 million was included within CMC's North American segment, while the remaining $4.4 million was reported within the Europe segment. While CMC's consolidated financial results were historically strong, earnings were lower than what we had anticipated when we discussed our results in June.

需要提醒的是，坦薩的性能包含在 CMC 的現有細分市場中。在 2,240 萬美元的 EBITDA 中，1,820 萬美元屬於 CMC 的北美部門，其餘 440 萬美元屬於歐洲部門。雖然 CMC 的綜合財務業績歷來強勁，但獲利低於我們在 6 月討論業績時的預期。

Sequential decline in profitability was driven by 3 primary factors. The first and most significant factor was the deterioration in the market environment in Europe. During the quarter, as I mentioned, pricing and margins declined as slowing Polish construction, muted European industrial activity and customer destocking measures depressed steel consumption. We responded to these conditions by reducing production by roughly 25% to rightsize inventory levels and lower market supply. We believe many other producers have made similar cutbacks to output.

獲利能力的連續下降是由三個主要因素驅動的。第一個也是最重要的因素是歐洲市場環境的惡化。正如我所提到的，本季度，由於波蘭建築業放緩、歐洲工業活動低迷以及客戶去庫存措施抑制了鋼鐵消費，定價和利潤率下降。為了應對這些情況，我們將產量減少了約 25%，以調整庫存水準並降低市場供應。我們相信許多其他生產商也進行了類似的產量削減。

Second factor was the effect of an inventory cost lag at our North American mills. Although we reported very similar margins over scrap in the fourth quarter relative to the third quarter, profitability was negatively impacted by selling higher cost inventory into the declining price market. Those who follow CMC will appreciate this is a temporary issue that will reverse once scrap costs stabilize or increase.

第二個因素是我們北美工廠庫存成本落後的影響。儘管我們報告的第四季度廢鋼利潤率與第三季度非常相似，但由於向價格下跌的市場出售成本較高的庫存，盈利能力受到了負面影響。那些關注 CMC 的人會意識到，這是一個暫時的問題，一旦廢品成本穩定或增加，這個問題就會逆轉。

The last factor of note was reduced scrap flows into our recycling yards as a result of the lower scrap pricing and the hot summer we experienced throughout the U.S. Diminished volumes have the effect of reducing fixed cost leverage and increasing price competition among recyclers in order to attract inbound material. We view this overhang as likely to be short-lived as volumes will rebound.

最後一個值得注意的因素是，由於廢鋼價格較低以及美國各地經歷了炎熱的夏季，進入我們回收場的廢鋼流量減少。數量減少會降低固定成本槓桿並加劇回收商之間的價格競爭，以吸引入庫材料。我們認為這種過剩可能是短暫的，因為成交量將會反彈。

Turning to the balance sheet, liquidity and capital allocation. As of August 31, cash and cash equivalents totaled $592.3 million. In addition, we had approximately $990 million of availability under our credit term loan and accounts receivable facilities, bringing total liquidity to just under $1.6 billion. During the quarter, we generated $409 million of cash from operating activities, which benefited from a working capital release of approximately $123 million. Our free cash flow amounted to $242.5 million, defined as our cash from operations less the $166.9 million of capital expenditures.

轉向資產負債表、流動性和資本配置。截至8月31日，現金及現金等價物總額為5.923億美元。此外，我們的信用定期貸款和應收帳款融資下還有約 9.9 億美元的可用資金，使流動性總額接近 16 億美元。本季度，我們從營運活動中產生了 4.09 億美元的現金，這得益於約 1.23 億美元的營運資金釋放。我們的自由現金流為 2.425 億美元，定義為我們的營運現金減去 1.669 億美元的資本支出。

Fiscal 2023 cash flow from operations of $1.3 billion set a new record and was nearly double the prior year level. The strong performance was driven by solid earnings and a working capital release of roughly $149 million. Free cash flows of $737.4 million was also a record for CMC. About 1/3 of our free cash flow was allocated to strategic growth acquisitions, a quarter was distributed to shareholders in the form of dividends and share repurchases, and the remainder was used to repay the senior notes that matured in 2023.

2023 財年營運現金流達 13 億美元，創下新紀錄，幾乎是上年水準的兩倍。強勁的業績得益於穩健的盈利和約 1.49 億美元的營運資金釋放。 7.374 億美元的自由現金流也創下了 CMC 的紀錄。我們約1/3的自由現金流分配給策略性成長收購，四分之一以股利和股票回購的形式分配給股東，其餘則用於償還2023年到期的優先票據。

We are pleased with our current debt levels and maturity profile and expect future capital allocations to have a prioritization towards growth and shareholder distributions. As I alluded to, our leverage metrics remain attractive and have improved significantly over the last several fiscal years. As can be seen on Slide 19, our net debt-to-EBITDA ratio now sits at 0.4x. We believe our robust balance sheet and overall financial strength provide us great flexibility to finance our strategic growth -- organic growth projects and pursue opportunistic M&A while continuing to return cash to shareholders.

我們對目前的債務水準和到期狀況感到滿意，並預期未來的資本配置將優先考慮成長和股東分配。正如我所提到的，我們的槓桿指標仍然具有吸引力，並且在過去幾個財年中取得了顯著改善。如投影片 19 所示，我們的淨債務與 EBITDA 比率目前為 0.4 倍。我們相信，我們穩健的資產負債表和整體財務實力為我們的策略成長（有機成長專案）和尋求機會性併購提供了極大的靈活性，同時繼續向股東返還現金。

CMC's effective tax rate was 22.6% in the fourth quarter. And looking ahead to the first quarter of 2024, we expect an effective tax rate between 24% and 25%. Turning to CMC's fiscal 2024 capital spending outlook. We expect to invest between $550 million and $600 million in total. Outside of normal sustaining investments, expenditures in fiscal 2024 includes substantial capital dollars for the construction of Steel West Virginia.

CMC第四季的有效稅率為22.6%。展望 2024 年第一季度，我們預期有效稅率在 24% 至 25% 之間。轉向 CMC 2024 財年資本支出前景。我們預計總投資在 5.5 億至 6 億美元之間。除了正常的持續投資之外，2024 財年的支出還包括用於建設西維吉尼亞鋼鐵公司的大量資本資金。

CMC continues to deploy capital to support growth plans and reinforce our core operations. During the year, we invested $234.7 million for strategic bolt-on acquisitions, which expanded our commercial portfolio and value proposition to customers as well as increasing our internal captive scrap capabilities in certain key geographies.

CMC 繼續部署資本來支援成長計畫並加強我們的核心業務。年內，我們投資了 2.347 億美元進行策略性補強收購，擴大了我們的商業產品組合和對客戶的價值主張，並提高了我們在某些​​關鍵地區的內部自有報廢能力。

Lastly, CMC purchased 352,000 shares during the fiscal fourth quarter at an average price of $52.75 per share. Transactions since the initiation of the buyback program through Q4 have amounted to approximately $263 million, leaving $87 million remaining under this authorization.

最後，CMC 在第四財季以每股 52.75 美元的平均價格購買了 352,000 股股票。自回購計畫啟動以來到第四季的交易額已達約 2.63 億美元，本授權項下剩餘 8,700 萬美元。

With that, I will turn it back to Peter for outlook for comments on CMC's outlook.

至此，我將把它轉回給 Peter，徵求他對 CMC 前景的評論。

Thank you, Paul. We expect first quarter financial performance to remain strong by historical standards, but declined from the fourth quarter as a result of seasonally slower shipments, steel product margin compression in North America and the continuation of challenging market conditions in Europe.

謝謝你，保羅。我們預計，以歷史標準衡量，第一季財務業績將保持強勁，但由於季節性出貨放緩、北美鋼鐵產品利潤率壓縮以及歐洲市場狀況持續挑戰，較第四季度有所下降。

During the first quarter, we anticipate that our Europe operations will receive approximately $60 million from 2 large government rebate programs. The first is an annual CO2 credit estimated at $25 million, up from $9.5 million received last year. The second is structured as a reimbursement by the Polish government for elevated energy costs incurred during the European energy crisis. Proceeds from this program are expected to be $35 million and are calculated based on the magnitude of energy cost inflation in calendar year 2023 relative to the 2021 baseline. These rebates are expected to drive a sequential improvement in Europe segment adjusted EBITDA.

在第一季度，我們預計我們的歐洲業務將從兩項大型政府回扣計畫中獲得約 6,000 萬美元。第一個是年度二氧化碳減排額估計為 2,500 萬美元，高於去年的 950 萬美元。第二個項目是波蘭政府對歐洲能源危機期間能源成本上漲的補償。該計劃的收益預計為 3500 萬美元，根據 2023 年能源成本通膨相對 2021 年基準的幅度計算。這些回扣預計將推動歐洲部門調整後 EBITDA 的連續改善。

Looking at the longer term, we remain very confident regarding the outlook for CMC in the markets we serve. The United States is in the early stages of massive investment trends that are intended to remake large portions of our economy by extensively upgrading infrastructure, realigning global trade patterns and reorienting automotive production to electric vehicles and transitioning the electricity grid to greener sources of energy.

從長遠來看，我們對 CMC 在我們所服務的市場的前景仍然充滿信心。美國正處於大規模投資趨勢的早期階段，這些投資趨勢旨在透過廣泛升級基礎設施、重新調整全球貿易格局、將汽車生產轉向電動車以及將電網轉向更綠色的能源來重塑我們的經濟的很大一部分。

Construction makes all this possible, and we have positioned CMC to be both a primary beneficiary of the expected growth and a key solution provider to our customers. Once again, I would like to thank our customers for their trust and confidence in CMC and to thank all of the CMC employees for delivering yet another quarter of solid performance. And with that, we'll take questions, operator.

建設使這一切成為可能，我們將 CMC 定位為預期成長的主要受益者和客戶的關鍵解決方案提供者。我要再次感謝客戶對 CMC 的信任和信心，並感謝所有 CMC 員工在又一個季度取得了穩健的業績。接下來，我們將接受提問，接線生。

(Operator Instructions) The first question is from Tristan Gresser of Exane BNP.

（操作員說明）第一個問題來自 Exane BNP 的 Tristan Gresser。

The first one is on the Q1 guidance. I wanted to ask you a little bit more about the moving pieces there. If I look at spot rebar metal spread in the U.S., they have fallen about by $100 in Q3. Is that the level of metal spread compression you expect to be reflected in Q1? Or is it something closer to $50 a ton maybe. Also in terms of timing, given the short life for rebar, is it fair to assume that most of the weakness we've seen in rebar metal spread will flow into that Q1. That's my first question.

第一個是關於第一季的指導。我想問你更多關於那裡的活動的事情。如果我看看美國的現貨螺紋鋼金屬價差，第三季它們已經下跌了約 100 美元。這是您期望在第一季度反映出來的金屬價差壓縮水準嗎？或可能接近每噸 50 美元。另外，就時間安排而言，考慮到螺紋鋼的壽命較短，可以公平地假設我們在螺紋鋼金屬價差中看到的大部分疲軟將流入第一季。這是我的第一個問題。

Yes. I think just in terms of the metal spread compression, the number that you're citing seems high to us. And in terms of timing, what we expect is that you will see the impact flow into Q1 as you indicated.

是的。我認為就金屬擴散壓縮而言，您引用的數字對我們來說似乎很高。就時間安排而言，我們預計您將看到影響流入第一季度，正如您所指出的那樣。

All right. That's really helpful. So I guess my follow-up is on having a little bit of hard time getting to a lower EBITDA quarter-on-quarter if I get metal spread compression there, some more stability on the fab business and a $60 million uplift then on Europe, I guess something close to something -- basically stable quarter-on-quarter.

好的。這真的很有幫助。因此，我想我的後續行動是，如果我在那裡的金屬價差壓縮，晶圓廠業務更加穩定，並且比歐洲增加 6000 萬美元，那麼要實現季度環比 EBITDA 下降會有點困難，我猜想，季度環比基本穩定。

So I'm just going to ask what kind of volume decline do you expect in North America, Europe in Q1? And also without the $60 million uplift in Europe, would you have seen underlying margins decrease further?

所以我想問一下，您預計第一季北美和歐洲的銷售會出現什麼樣的下降？如果沒有歐洲 6000 萬美元的成長，您是否會看到基礎利潤率進一步下降？

So in terms of the volume decline in North America, we expect there to be kind of normal seasonality. So we're talking about up to a 10% change. And I think what you should assume in Poland is that absent is these rebates, Q1 looks a lot like Q4. So we're not calling for a meaningful recovery in Poland in Q1.

因此，就北美的銷量下降而言，我們預計會出現某種正常的季節性。所以我們討論的是最多 10% 的變化。我認為在波蘭你應該假設的是，沒有這些回扣，第一季看起來很像第四季。因此，我們並不呼籲波蘭在第一季出現有意義的復甦。

Okay. That's really helpful. And maybe the last one, and I know it's a little bit of a tricky one, but on the timing on the infrastructure plan. I mean the rebar demand chart you showed in your presentation looks flat year-to-date. Is that fair to imply that we have yet to see most of this kind of [infra] boost. And if you were to put a number, and I know it's difficult, how much of this 1.5 million ton demand uplift do you believe is already out there being reflected in rebar prices. Is that 50%, 20% or even lower?

好的。這真的很有幫助。也許是最後一個，我知道這有點棘手，但關於基礎設施計劃的時間安排。我的意思是，您在演示中顯示的螺紋鋼需求圖表今年迄今看起來持平。這是否公平地意味著我們還沒有看到大部分這種[基礎設施]的推動。如果你要給一個數字（我知道這很困難），你認為這 150 萬噸的需求成長中有多少已經反映在螺紋鋼價格中。是50%、20%還是更低？

And lastly, I think on your opening remarks, I think it feels to me that basically saying the quarter to watch for any meaningful uptick there is potentially calendar Q2. Is that fair?

最後，我認為在你的開場白中，我認為基本上是在說這個季度要觀察任何有意義的上升，可能是日曆第二季。這樣公平嗎？

Yes. So okay, a lot of questions there, but we'll try to cycle through them. So first, in terms of the amount of infrastructure spend that we're seeing, so far, it's been very limited. What we can see is that it's working through the design and the predesign phases of the process, but we don't believe that we've seen much of the spend yet.

是的。好吧，有很多問題，但我們會嘗試循環解決它們。首先，就我們所看到的基礎設施支出而言，到目前為止，它非常有限。我們可以看到，它正在整個過程的設計和預設計階段進行，但我們認為我們還沒有看到太多的支出。

And to your second question on rebar pricing, we do not believe that the kind of infrastructure spend bubble is baked into the current rebar prices, right? So once that demand starts to materialize, we expect we'll see more of that.

關於你關於螺紋鋼定價的第二個問題，我們不認為這種基礎設施支出泡沫已融入當前的螺紋鋼價格中，對嗎？因此，一旦這種需求開始實現，我們預計會看到更多這種需求。

And if you talk about when the inflection is going to occur, again, it's hard for us to give too precise a number but -- or too precise a date. But I guess what we do is if we think about North America, again, we do see the kind of bidding activity very high. We do see some short-term constraints in terms of kind of getting projects built out just given some of the labor constraints. But we expect this is coming and we expect it's coming in 2024. And so that should give some help to 2024.

如果你再次談論拐點何時發生，我們很難給出太精確的數字，或者太精確的日期。但我想我們所做的是，如果我們考慮一下北美，我們確實會看到這種競標活動非常高。考慮到一些勞動力限制，我們確實看到了項目建設方面的一些短期限制。但我們預計這將會到來，並且預計會在 2024 年到來。因此這應該會為 2024 年帶來一些幫助。

The other thing that I would say we're seeing is 2 factors, that I think are important here. One is we've seen scrap stabilize. And usually, that's a harbinger for kind of better pricing on the rebar side. And the other thing that I would say is that imports have remained at relatively manageable levels, relative to kind of where they've been historically.

我想說的另一件事是我們看到的兩個因素，我認為這兩個因素在這裡很重要。一是我們看到廢鋼量趨於穩定。通常，這是螺紋鋼定價更好的先兆。我要說的另一件事是，相對於歷史水平，進口仍保持在相對可控的水平。

And we believe that's because of the kind of the economics of bringing steel to the U.S. are not as compelling. And that's why we're not seeing the -- despite the fact that it's better than other markets, it's not so much better that people are going to bring higher levels of imports. So that also should be a positive for ultimately pricing.

我們認為這是因為將鋼鐵引入美國的經濟效益並不那麼引人注目。這就是為什麼我們沒有看到——儘管事實上它比其他市場更好，但人們不會帶來更高水準的進口。因此，這對最終定價也應該是有利的。

In Poland, if I can just comment on Poland a bit. So what we see in Poland is pricing has stabilized. We've seen a lot of capacity taken out of the market. There's an election on October 15, so just a couple of days from now. And we believe that coming out of that election, there's a very good chance that this $32 billion of recovery and resilience fund that's being held by the EU will come into the market. And so that's another potential positive for us in Poland.

在波蘭，我可以簡單評論波蘭。所以我們在波蘭看到的是價格已經穩定。我們已經看到大量產能被退出市場。 10 月 15 日將舉行選舉，距離現在只有幾天了。我們相信，這次選舉之後，歐盟持有的 320 億美元復甦和復原基金很有可能進入市場。這對我們波蘭來說是另一個潛在的正面因素。

The government's program to buy down interest rates on first-time buyer mortgages has been very well received. So that's a potentially another green shoot. So there are some reasons for optimism in Poland, but it's hard to call the inflection point just given what we've seen.

政府降低首次購屋者抵押貸款利率的計劃受到了廣泛好評。所以這可能是另一個新的萌芽。因此，波蘭有一些樂觀的理由，但鑑於我們所看到的情況，很難稱之為轉折點。

Next question is from Timna Tanners of Wolfe Research.

下一個問題來自 Wolfe Research 的 Timna Tanners。

I wanted to dig down a little bit on Arizona 2. So just a little bit tough to reconcile for me the guidance of lower sequential volumes in November. And then in February, it's seasonally a little lighter even -- but yet, Arizona 2 is supposed to be ramping up. So is it displacing other tons? Or are there net additional tons to the tune of that 400,000, I think, that you guided to for fiscal year production?

我想深入研究《亞利桑那 2》。因此，對我來說，協調 11 月連續銷售下降的指導有點困難。然後到了二月，季節性天氣會稍微淡一些，但亞利桑那 2 號應該會增加。那麼它會取代其他噸位嗎？或者，我認為，您指導的財政年度產量是否有 40 萬噸的淨增產？

And then along those same lines, if I could. Can you clarify, I think you had said in the past that its a little earlier time frame for breakeven, maybe Q1 and now you're saying first half. So if you could just provide some color on that as well.

如果可以的話，然後沿著同樣的路線。您能否澄清一下，我想您過去曾說過，盈虧平衡的時間範圍有點早，也許是第一季度，現在您說的是上半年。所以如果你也能提供一些顏色的話。

I'll start with the EBITDA breakeven, Timna. In terms of our change in the guidance is simply reflecting the margin erosion that we've seen. The production startup started in June and has continued to improve each quarter. But simply the margin erosion that has occurred, and we anticipate to occur in our first quarter, we expect that the breakeven point will take place in some time during the second quarter.

我將從 EBITDA 損益平衡點開始，Timna。就我們對指導的改變而言，這只是反映了我們所看到的利潤率下降。生產啟動於六月，每季持續改善。但只是已經發生的利潤率侵蝕，我們預計會在第一季發生，我們預計盈虧平衡點將在第二季的某個時候出現。

And in terms of the tonnages, Timna, so we are -- it is the case that we have been supplying kind of tons to some of our customers in the West from some of our other mills. But as we bring up the Arizona plant, we will be not only replacing those tons but we will be producing some incremental tons.

就噸位而言，Timna，我們是這樣的——我們一直在從我們的其他一些工廠向西方的一些客戶供應一定噸的產品。但當我們建立亞利桑那工廠時，我們不僅會取代這些噸，而且還會生產一些增量噸。

Okay. But if you were in RC, you wouldn't necessarily plug in an additional 400,000 tons? Or do you think the market can bear that, I guess, is the challenge?

好的。但如果你在RC，你不一定會額外插入40萬噸嗎？或者你認為市場能夠承受這個挑戰嗎？

Yes. No, it's not an additional 400,000 tons. It's a little bit less than that.

是的。不，不是額外的40萬噸。比那個少一點點。

Okay. And then if I could, just one more. On that CapEx color, Well, one is that you raised the CapEx guidance $50 million, sorry if I missed any explanation for that for 2024. And then I know it's a little further out, but we see some pretty strong cash flows in 2025, if we reverse to kind of your more baseline CapEx or maintenance CapEx. I'm just wondering if there's more on the come after that, that we should be modeling as well?

好的。然後如果可以的話，再多一個。關於資本支出顏色，嗯，其中之一是您將資本支出指導提高了5000 萬美元，如果我錯過了2024 年的任何解釋，抱歉。然後我知道這有點遙遠，但我們看到2025 年有一些相當強勁的現金流，如果我們逆轉為您的更基線資​​本支出或維護資本支出。我只是想知道之後是否還有更多內容，我們也應該建模？

Timna, I think Steel West Virginia is likely to continue to have spend in 2025. So our overall '25 will likely continue to be an elevated CapEx as we invest in that organic growth. I will remind you though that over the last 3 years, despite the release of working capital that we saw in the fourth quarter of around $125 million, we've still invested over $700 million in working capital. So we do anticipate that our cash flow will be very strong as we look forward, certainly, if there is any continued softness on the pricing front.

Timna，我認為西維吉尼亞鋼鐵公司可能會在 2025 年繼續支出。因此，隨著我們投資於有機成長，我們的整體 25 年資本支出可能會繼續增加。不過，我要提醒您的是，在過去 3 年裡，儘管我們在第四季度釋放了約 1.25 億美元的營運資金，但我們仍然投資了超過 7 億美元的營運資金。因此，我們確實預計，如果定價方面持續疲軟，我們的現金流將會非常強勁。

Okay. And then so the $50 million, sorry, the additional CapEx guidance that you had for 2024, if you could just let us know what that was about.

好的。然後是 5000 萬美元，抱歉，您為 2024 年提供的額外資本支出指導，如果您能讓我們知道具體內容的話。

Yes. That's just simply as we get more evolved into the timing of our planning process for the year and look at projects that can drive value to the organization. We're now complete our planning process, whereas before it was more of an estimate based on where we were.

是的。這只是因為我們更深入地了解今年的規劃流程的時間安排，並研究可以為組織帶來價值的項目。我們現在已經完成了我們的規劃過程，而之前更多的是根據我們所處的位置進行估計。

(Operator Instructions) The next question is from Alex Hacking of Citi.

（操作員說明）下一個問題來自花旗銀行的 Alex Hacking。

(technical difficulty) time to Barbara for a tenured CEO, truly transformational. Not many people can say that. In terms of questions, I guess the first question, just following up on the infrastructure bill. I think you highlighted there the big ramp-up in design phase activity. How should we think about the lag there for steel going into the ground, right? That suggests to me probably we're still maybe 2 or 3 years away. But any color there would be helpful?

（技術難度）芭芭拉擔任終身執行長的時間，真正的改變。沒有多少人能這麼說。就問題而言，我猜第一個問題是基礎設施法案的後續問題。我認為您強調了設計階段活動的大幅成長。我們應該如何考慮鋼鐵進入地下的滯後，對吧？對我來說，這表明我們可能還需要 2 到 3 年的時間。但任何顏色都會有幫助嗎？

No, I think -- I don't think it's that long. I think we see -- we believe that by the middle of next calendar year, we should start to feel some of that infrastructure spending coming through.

不，我想——我不認為有那麼長。我認為我們看到 - 我們相信到明年年中，我們應該開始感受到一些基礎設施支出的實現。

Okay. And then I guess a follow-up on merchant bar. Volumes down something like 10% year-over-year. Is that still decelerating in your view? Or has it kind of stabilized? And are there specific end markets within that, that are particularly weak?

好的。然後我猜想是商人酒吧的後續行動。成交量較去年同期下降約 10%。您認為這仍然在減速嗎？或者說已經穩定下來了？其中是否有特別薄弱的特定終端市場？

Alex, no, if you'll recall in my comments, I made reference to a major planned outage that we had at one of our merchant mills. So we were within the quarter essentially constrained on production at our Alabama facility that is our flagship in terms of merchant bar. So it's simply our capacity during the quarter. Underlying market conditions continue to be relatively strong in the merchant bar space.

亞歷克斯，不，如果您還記得在我的評論中，我提到了我們的一家商業工廠計劃的重大停電。因此，我們在本季度內基本上限制了我們阿拉巴馬州工廠的生產，該工廠是我們在商業酒吧方面的旗艦。所以這只是我們本季的產能。商業酒吧領域的基本市場狀況持續相對強勁。

Thank you Alex for your kind remarks.

謝謝亞歷克斯的客氣話。

At this time, there appears to be no further questions. Mr. Matt, I'll now turn the call back over to you.

此時，似乎沒有其他問題了。馬特先生，我現在將電話轉回給您。

Okay. Well, thank you, everyone, for joining our call today. CMC is a great platform to take advantage of the wave of construction, the spending that's coming our way. And there's clearly some short-term headwinds, but these will pass, and we expect materially higher through-the-cycle margins and significant value creation and demonstrating that we can achieve them. CMC is well positioned to capitalize on this performance and to strengthen and grow our business.

好的。好的，謝謝大家今天加入我們的電話會議。 CMC 是一個很好的平台，可以利用我們即將到來的建設浪潮和支出。顯然存在一些短期阻力，但這些都會過去，我們預計整個週期的利潤率將大幅提高，並創造顯著的價值，並證明我們可以實現這些目標。 CMC 完全有能力利用這項業績來加強和發展我們的業務。

Thank you very much for joining.

非常感謝您的加入。

This concludes today's CMC conference call. You may now disconnect.

今天的 CMC 電話會議到此結束。您現在可以斷開連線。