使用警語:中文譯文來源為 Google 翻譯,僅供參考,實際內容請以英文原文為主
Operator
Operator
Good day ladies and gentlemen and welcome to the Clorox Company third quarter fiscal year 2025 earnings release conference calls. (Operator Instructions) As a reminder, this call is being recorded.
女士們、先生們,大家好,歡迎參加高樂氏公司 2025 財年第三季財報發布電話會議。(操作員指示)提醒一下,此通話正在被錄音。
I would now like to introduce your host for today's conference call, Ms. Lisa Byrne, Vice President of Investor Relations for the Clorox Company.
現在,我想介紹今天電話會議的主持人,高樂氏公司投資者關係副總裁麗莎·伯恩女士。
Lisa Byrne - Vice President of Investor Relations
Lisa Byrne - Vice President of Investor Relations
Thank you, Paul. Good afternoon and thank you for joining us. On the call with me today are Linda Rendle, our Chair and CEO, and Luc Bellet, our CFO.
謝謝你,保羅。下午好,感謝您加入我們。今天與我一起通話的有我們的董事長兼執行長 Linda Rendle 和我們的財務長 Luc Bellet。
I hope everyone has had a chance to read our earnings release and prepared remarks, both of which are on our website. In just a moment, Linda will share a few opening comments, and then we'll take your questions.
我希望每個人都有機會閱讀我們的收益報告和準備好的評論,它們都在我們的網站上。稍後,琳達將發表一些開場白,然後我們將回答大家的問題。
During this call, we may make forward-looking statements, including about our fiscal year 2025 outlook. These statements are based on management's current expectation that may differ from actual results or outcome. In addition, we may refer to certain non-GAAP financial measures.
在本次電話會議中,我們可能會做出前瞻性陳述,包括有關 2025 財年的展望。這些聲明是基於管理階層目前的預期,可能與實際結果或成果有所不同。此外,我們可能會參考某些非公認會計準則財務指標。
Please refer to the forward-looking statement section which identifies various factors that could affect such forward-looking statements which has been filed with the SEC. In addition, please refer to the non-GAAP financial information section in our earnings release and the supplemental financial schedules in the industrial relations section of our website for reconciliation of non-GAAP financial measures to the most directly comparable GAAP measures. Now I'll turn it over to Linda.
請參閱已向美國證券交易委員會提交的前瞻性聲明部分,其中列出了可能影響此類前瞻性聲明的各種因素。此外,請參閱我們收益報告中的非 GAAP 財務資訊部分以及我們網站工業關係部分中的補充財務時間表,以了解非 GAAP 財務指標與最直接可比較的 GAAP 指標之間的對帳情況。現在我將把話題交給琳達。
Linda Rendle - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer
Linda Rendle - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer
Thank you for joining us today. I'd like to welcome Luc to his first call as CFO.
感謝您今天加入我們。我歡迎 Luc 參加他作為財務長的首次電話會議。
Looking back to the start of the fiscal year, we expected a tougher consumer environment with increased competition and slower category growth. For the first half of the year and the first half of the third quarter, we saw just that.
回顧本財年開始時,我們預期消費環境將更加嚴峻,競爭將加劇,品類成長將放緩。今年上半年和第三季上半年,我們看到的就是這種情況。
During the second half of the third quarter, however, US consumer sentiment weakened substantially, and macroeconomic and geopolitical uncertainties drove changes in shopping behaviors, resulting in temporary category impact and lower than expected sales.
然而,第三季後半段,美國消費者信心大幅減弱,宏觀經濟和地緣政治的不確定性推動購物行為發生變化,導致品類受到暫時性影響,銷售額低於預期。
Despite these headwinds, our fundamentals remain strong. We held overall market shares and delivered our 10th consecutive quarter of gross margin expansion, which enables us to keep you reinvesting in our brands, our innovation pipeline, and in the transformation of our business.
儘管面臨這些不利因素,我們的基本面依然強勁。我們保持了整體市場份額,並連續第 10 個季度實現了毛利率成長,這使我們能夠繼續對我們的品牌、創新通路和業務轉型進行再投資。
As we look ahead, we anticipate consumers and retailers will remain under pressure, which is reflected in our updated outlook. That said, we are confident in our portfolio of trusted brands and the essential role they play in consumers' daily lives. Our proven resilience and execution equip us to navigate the uncertainties ahead.
展望未來,我們預期消費者和零售商將繼續面臨壓力,這反映在我們最新的展望中。儘管如此,我們對我們值得信賴的品牌組合以及它們在消費者日常生活中發揮的重要作用充滿信心。我們已證明的韌性和執行力使我們能夠應對未來的不確定性。
For this year, that means we continue to deliver organic sales growth and another year of strong earnings growth while continuing to progress our long-term strategy.
對今年來說,這意味著我們將繼續實現有機銷售成長和另一年強勁的獲利成長,同時繼續推進我們的長期策略。
With that, Luc and I will take your questions.
接下來,Luc 和我將回答你們的問題。
Operator
Operator
(Operator Instructions)
(操作員指示)
Dara Mohsenian, Morgan Stanley.
摩根士丹利的達拉‧莫森尼安 (Dara Mohsenian)。
Dara Mohsenian - Analyst
Dara Mohsenian - Analyst
I'd love to hear your perspective on what's driving the category weakness we're seeing traditionally your categories have been pretty defensive and resilient?
我很想聽聽您對導致我們傳統上看到的類別疲軟的原因的看法,您的類別傳統上一直具有相當的防禦性和彈性?
Obviously you mentioned the weakness in the back half of the quarter with the macro uncertainty, but the reality is the broader market concerns ramped up more in April than the weakness we've seen in household products categories beginning in February.
顯然,您提到了宏觀不確定性導致的本季後半段的疲軟,但實際情況是,4 月更廣泛的市場擔憂比我們從 2 月開始看到的家用產品類別的疲軟更為嚴重。
So, just a bit of additional perspective would be helpful on the category of weakness we're seeing how long you think this sustains and maybe difference versus what we've seen in past cycles?
因此,對於我們所看到的弱點類別,您認為這種情況會持續多久以及與我們在過去的周期中看到的情況有何不同,只需提供一點額外的觀點就會有所幫助?
Linda Rendle - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer
Linda Rendle - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer
Sure, Dara, I'll get us started. Thanks for the question.
當然,達拉,我會讓我們開始的。謝謝你的提問。
And maybe just, I'll start with a step back, I think Dara, to your point, we've been around for a long time, 112 years, and we've seen a lot of different economic scenarios. We've seen inflation, we've seen recession, certainly in the recent years with COVID, etc.
也許,我先退一步來說,我想達拉,就你的觀點而言,我們已經存在很久了,112 年,我們已經看到了很多不同的經濟情景。我們經歷過通貨膨脹,經歷過經濟衰退,當然近年來出現了新冠疫情等等。
And absolutely the case that our categories are fairly resilient during times like this, we play household essentials, so we tend to see our categories at the high point in the low single digits positive, and at the lowest points we see in low single digits in the decline.
在這樣的時期,我們的產品類別絕對具有相當的彈性,我們經營家庭必需品,因此我們傾向於看到我們的產品類別在高點時呈現低個位數的正增長,而在最低點時則呈現低個位數的下降。
And what we saw in this period is on average low single digit decline, and there is some nuance on that, I think would be helpful to break apart and maybe I'll just start with Q3. I'll talk about what we're beginning to see in Q4 in April, and maybe just how we're thinking about it moving forward.
我們在此期間看到的是平均低個位數下降,並且存在一些細微差別,我認為將其分解開來會有所幫助,也許我會從第三季度開始。我將在 4 月談論我們在第四季度開始看到的情況,以及我們對未來的看法。
But if you look at Q3 through mid-February, generally in line with what we had expected, and to be clear, for fiscal year '25, we expected a more strained consumer, so categories going from about 2 and 2.5 down to about plus one and that's what we saw, through the first half of the year and the first half of the quarter.
但如果你看一下截至 2 月中旬的第三季度,情況總體上與我們的預期一致,而且要明確的是,對於 25 財年,我們預計消費者將面臨更大的壓力,因此類別將從大約 2 和 2.5 下降到大約加 1,這就是我們在整個上半年和本季上半月所看到的情況。
And then with a lot of the uncertainties coming with different macroeconomic policies, what you were seeing with tariffs, we begin to see that change in mid-February. At the beginning of that that change, what we really saw was changing baskets within the retail locations people shop for our brands. We saw people prioritizing food a bit more. We saw that market basket shifting within the store.
然後,隨著不同宏觀經濟政策帶來的許多不確定性,例如關稅問題,我們在 2 月中旬開始看到這種變化。在這種變化開始之初,我們真正看到的是零售店內人們購買我們品牌商品的購物籃發生了變化。我們發現人們更加重視食物。我們看到那個購物籃在商店裡移動。
Then as tariffs came out, we saw consumers actually changing their wallet much more broadly, well beyond the market basket that includes our goods. So, we saw things like people buying more automobiles, people buying iPhones. The wallet was changing pretty dramatically, and what we saw was conserving behavior in many of our categories that results in our categories being down.
隨著關稅的出台,我們看到消費者實際上在更廣泛地改變他們的錢包,遠遠超出了包括我們商品的市場籃子。因此,我們看到人們購買更多汽車、購買更多 iPhone。錢包發生了巨大的變化,我們看到許多類別的節約行為導致我們的類別數量下降。
Our categories being flat to again download second and pretty volatile in that period between mid-February and the end of the quarter. And I think what we're seeing is consumers react, the news cycle every other day is changing, and so consumers are thinking about how they meet all their needs, across a broad range of market basket, and ensure that they have their essentials at home.
在 2 月中旬至本季末期間,我們的類別下載量持平,再次位居第二,波動較大。我認為我們看到的是消費者的反應,每隔一天的新聞週期都在變化,因此消費者正在思考如何滿足他們在廣泛的市場籃子中的所有需求,並確保他們在家中擁有必需品。
What kind of, buoys our confidence is what we're not seeing is consumers change their at-home behavior in our categories. So, we're not seeing people, for example, trade down to private label in any meaningful way in our categories. We're not seeing people decide to not participate in our categories, what we're seeing is people buying smaller sizes or larger sizes in our portfolio. We're seeing they're using every little bit of what they have at home.
我們沒有看到消費者在我們的產品類別中改變他們的居家行為,這讓我們信心倍增。因此,我們沒有看到人們在我們的類別中以任何有意義的方式轉向自有品牌。我們沒有看到人們決定不參與我們的產品類別,我們看到的是人們購買我們產品組合中較小尺寸或較大尺寸的產品。我們看到他們正在利用家裡現有的一切資源。
And what they're trying to do is prioritize the purchases they need to prioritize given the environment that's going on, externally. So that gives us confidence that our categories will continue to be resilient because we're not seeing that behavior change in any substantial way, and again, we play in those essentials.
他們正在嘗試做的是根據外部環境來確定需要優先採購的事項。因此,這讓我們有信心,我們的類別將繼續保持彈性,因為我們沒有看到這種行為有任何實質的變化,而且我們再次發揮這些基本作用。
So what does that mean for what we're seeing maybe in Q4 and just how we think about, the time frame on this. For Q4, April was a very similar look to what we saw on the back half of Q3. We saw range from category being flat one week to down 2.5 and pretty volatile, up and down, but I would say, what we expect for the quarter, the categories to be down low single digits, based on what we're seeing, and that's what we've contemplated in the outlook. The big question for all of us is how long will this last?
那麼,這對於我們在第四季度看到的情況以及我們如何看待這個時間框架意味著什麼。對於第四季而言,四月的情況與第三季後半段的情況非常相似。我們看到該類別的範圍從一周持平到下降 2.5,而且波動很大,有起有落,但我想說,根據我們所看到的情況,我們預計本季度該類別將下降個位數,這也是我們在展望中所考慮的。我們所有人面臨的最大問題是這種情況將持續多久?
And at this point it's very difficult to say because it's difficult to say exactly what will happen as it relates to tariffs, the geopolitical environment, which continues to be pretty volatile and uncertain. But the thing we're certain of is our categories, generally are pretty resilient. I still think they're pretty resilient given what's going on right now.
目前還很難說,因為很難確切地說關稅和地緣政治環境會發生什麼,而地緣政治環境仍然相當不穩定和不確定。但我們可以肯定的是,我們的類別總體上是相當有彈性的。考慮到目前的情況,我仍然認為他們具有很強的韌性。
Consumer behavior in our categories remains largely unchanged. People are pinching panties right now to try to make it work, and what we're just looking at really closely is, does that behavior start to change and do we start to see behaviors? Again, nothing yet, but we're watching closely private label, we're watching Trade down really closely, we're watching Channel shift.
我們類別的消費者行為基本上保持不變。人們現在正在捏內褲試圖讓它發揮作用,我們正在密切關注的是,這種行為是否開始改變,我們是否開始看到行為?再說一次,目前還沒有,但我們正在密切關注自有品牌,我們正在密切關注貿易下滑,我們正在關注渠道轉變。
And then at what point do consumers feel more confident, in their ability to navigate whatever's coming, and we see our category, growth return to that low single digits that we would expect. That timing is uncertain, but we just feel confident in our ability to navigate it until we get to that point.
那麼,消費者何時會對自己應對未來一切的能力更有信心,我們會看到我們的類別成長率回到我們預期的低個位數。雖然時間尚不確定,但我們對自己的能力充滿信心,相信我們能夠到達那個點。
Dara Mohsenian - Analyst
Dara Mohsenian - Analyst
Alright, thanks.
好的,謝謝。
Operator
Operator
Filippo Fiorini, Citi
菲利波·菲奧里尼,花旗銀行
Filippo Fiorini Miotti - Analyst
Filippo Fiorini Miotti - Analyst
Hey, good afternoon, everyone. I wanted to just expand on Dara's question a little bit longer term, Linda.
嘿,大家下午好。琳達,我只是想稍微詳細地解釋一下達拉的問題。
Obviously you have a 2% to 5% long term algorithm on organic sales which assumes a healthier level of category growth. So assuming the categories remain relatively softer, how should we think about like your underlying op opportunity from an organic sales standpoint as we think about exiting fiscal '25 and into 26?
顯然,您對有機銷售額有一個 2% 到 5% 的長期演算法,該演算法假設類別成長水準更健康。因此,假設類別仍然相對較軟,當我們考慮退出 25 財年並進入 26 財年時,我們應該如何從有機銷售的角度來考慮您的潛在營運機會?
Linda Rendle - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer
Linda Rendle - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer
Thankfully, obviously we're not setting guidance for fiscal year '26 or beyond now, but I'll just make some kind of overall comments. The first would be, you're absolutely right that our 3% to 5% growth algorithm is predicated on having category growth back to what we would normally expect it to be, around 2% to 2.5%, and we don't have visibility to that category growth at this moment, but again, we would expect based on the consumer fundamentals over time that will come back.
值得慶幸的是,顯然我們現在還沒有為 26 財年或以後製定指導,但我只是想發表一些總體評論。首先,您說得完全正確,我們 3% 到 5% 的成長演算法是基於類別成長恢復到我們通常預期的水平,即 2% 到 2.5% 左右,而我們目前還無法看到該類別的成長情況,但同樣,根據消費者基本面,我們預計隨著時間的推移,成長將會回升。
In the meantime, we would expect, our category growth to be suppressed given the fact that our categories are down, so our growth will be reflecting in that. When we talk about fiscal year '26, we'll talk about what we expect again, not setting that right now, but certainly for Q4 you're seeing muted growth, and you see that in the remainder of our outlook for Q4 given what we're seeing in the categories.
同時,我們預計,由於我們的產品類別下降,我們的產品類別成長將受到抑制,因此我們的成長將反映這一點。當我們談論 26 財年時,我們會再次談論我們的預期,現在還不能確定,但對於第四季度,您肯定會看到增長放緩,而且根據我們在各個類別中看到的情況,在我們對第四季度剩餘的展望中,您也會看到這種情況。
Filippo Fiorini Miotti - Analyst
Filippo Fiorini Miotti - Analyst
Right, that's helpful. And maybe one for Luc, in your guidance you mentioned the impact of tariffs, on the gross margin on that basis, but can you give us a sense of like what the gross impact from tariffs that you're expecting and your plan to mitigate that impact?
對,這很有幫助。也許對於 Luc 來說,您在指導中提到了關稅對毛利率的影響,但您能否讓我們了解一下您預期的關稅總體影響以及您減輕這種影響的計劃?
Luc Bellet - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President
Luc Bellet - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President
Yes, thanks, Filippo.
是的,謝謝,菲利波。
Maybe just as a piece of context, we talked about it in the past, but our exposure to tariffs, is relatively limited as, when you look at your portfolio, we tend to manufacture closely to where we sell our products.
也許只是作為一個背景,我們過去曾討論過這個問題,但我們對關稅的影響相對有限,因為當你查看你的投資組合時,我們傾向於在靠近我們銷售產品的地方進行生產。
Having said that, given the majority of the tariff rate, the impact, unmitigated impact that we expect is a 12 month run rate of about $100 million. Now you'll see less than a fair share in Q4. We expect about $10 million to $20 million in the outlook that's because we currently have inventory and it's going to take time for the tariffs to work through that inventory and hit our P&L.
話雖如此,考慮到大部分關稅稅率,我們預計其影響,即未緩解的影響,12 個月的運行率約為 1 億美元。現在你會發現第四季的份額不足。我們預計未來的損失約為 1000 萬至 2000 萬美元,這是因為我們目前有庫存,關稅需要時間才能對這些庫存產生影響並影響我們的損益表。
Now, I would say this is, so this is fairly material, but all in all, we think it's manageable and, we expect that we'll be able to offset that over time. Now, obviously, we already started working on mitigations and working at a broad set of levels we're looking at changing sourcing or making other changes to satellite chains, we're looking at potential reformulations.
現在,我想說這是相當重要的,但總而言之,我們認為這是可控的,我們預計我們將能夠隨著時間的推移抵消這一點。現在,顯然,我們已經開始著手緩解措施,並在廣泛的層面上開展工作,我們正在考慮改變來源或對衛星鏈進行其他改變,我們正在研究潛在的重新制定。
Of course, considering productive improvements as well as some levels of strategic pricing. Now, we don't expect to see some broad-based price increase, but we're certainly looking at targeted and, price increase that would be more modest in magnitude than what we've seen in the past few years.
當然,也要考慮生產力的提高以及一定程度的策略定價。現在,我們預計不會出現普遍的價格上漲,但我們肯定會考慮有針對性的價格上漲,而且其幅度將比過去幾年更為溫和。
Filippo Fiorini Miotti - Analyst
Filippo Fiorini Miotti - Analyst
Okay, thank you so much.
好的,非常感謝。
Operator
Operator
Peter Grom, UBS.
瑞銀的 Peter Grom。
Peter Grom - Analyst
Peter Grom - Analyst
Thanks operator and welcome Luc. I wanted to ask, a little bit on gross margin guidance just in the context of the fourth quarter, just to, the year to day performance applies a really, kind of tough exit rate and look, I know the guidance always included that assumption, but I'm curious if the drivers have changed, and I guess what I'm trying to get at is there anything that we need to kind of take away from the implied for a few pressure that we kind of need to take into account as we think about fiscal '26?
感謝接線員,歡迎 Luc。我想問一下,在第四季度的背景下,關於毛利率指導的問題,只是為了,全年的表現應用了一種非常嚴格的退出率,而且看起來,我知道指導總是包含這個假設,但我很好奇驅動因素是否已經改變,我想我試圖得到的是,在我們考慮 26 財年時,我們需要從隱含的一些壓力中拿走什麼嗎?
I know we just touched on tariffs in your response to Filippo's question. You aren't giving guidance on '26 right now. I totally get that, but it's just there anything else that's really changed as we think about kind of the puts and takes reverse marketing in the fourth quarter.
我知道我們在您回答菲利波的問題時剛剛談到了關稅問題。您現在沒有給出有關 26 的指導。我完全明白這一點,但是當我們考慮到第四季度的反向行銷時,還有其他什麼真正改變嗎?
Luc Bellet - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President
Luc Bellet - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President
Thanks, Peter. Yeah, I would say, if you look at our gross margin for the fourth quarter, it's, let's say it's about 44%, so it's fairly close to the average for the full year, which is going to be about 44.5%. The other thing I mentioned is a lot of our assumptions are, remain consistent with our prior outlook. There's a few changes and let me walk you through them.
謝謝,彼得。是的,我想說,如果你看看我們第四季的毛利率,它大約是 44%,所以它相當接近全年的平均水平,即 44.5% 左右。我提到的另一件事是,我們的許多假設與我們先前的展望保持一致。有一些變化,讓我帶您了解一下。
First, we had some timing that was favorable in Q3 and unfavorable in Q4, and this is has to do with some manufacturing expenses that were shifted from one quarter to the other. So that's about alpha point, that's favorable in Q3, and alpha point that's unfavorable in Q4.
首先,我們在第三季有一些有利的時機,而在第四季度則不利,這與一些製造費用從一個季度轉移到另一個季度有關。這就是關於 alpha 點,在 Q3 中是有利的,而在 Q4 中是不利的。
The second thing I would say is generally both Q3 and Q4, our cost savings are coming a little stronger as well as some other expenses coming slightly more favorable. So that adds up a little bit. And then of course there's the impact of tariffs in Q4 I just mentioned it. It's going to be about $10 million to $20 million. So if you put Centex, but all in all, we expect gross margin in Q4 to be about 44 basis points.
我想說的第二件事是,一般來說,在第三和第四季度,我們的成本節省都會有所增強,其他一些支出也會略有改善。這樣就有點加起來了。當然還有我剛才提到的第四季關稅的影響。大約需要 1000 萬到 2000 萬美元。因此,如果你放入 Centex,但總的來說,我們預計第四季的毛利率約為 44 個基點。
Very much aligned with what we're seeing for the year and that gives you a good sense of what kind of what is our exit cost margin coming into next year.
與我們今年看到的情況非常一致,這讓您很好地了解明年我們的退出成本利潤率是多少。
Peter Grom - Analyst
Peter Grom - Analyst
That's super helpful, Luc, and then I guess just, I wanted to ask, I think in the prepare marks you touched on, some retail destocking that happened at the end of the quarter. Is there any way you can put some guardrail on how much of an impact that had, and has that kind of continued at all or is that contemplated at all in in kind of the fourth quarter sales guidance?
這非常有幫助,盧克,然後我想問一下,我認為在您提到的準備標記中,有一些零售去庫存發生在本季度末。您能否以某種方式來衡量其影響有多大,這種影響是否還會持續,或者在第四季度的銷售指導中是否已經考慮到了這一點?
Linda Rendle - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer
Linda Rendle - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer
Sure, Q3, that happened very late in the quarter and you know what we're seeing from retailers, generally is not broad inventory retail destocking. This was limited to our household business, and came late in the quarter, based on some things that they were doing to adjust to the ever-changing environment. We do expect some impact in Q4.
當然,第三季度,這發生在本季度末,你知道我們從零售商那裡看到的情況,一般來說不是廣泛的庫存零售去庫存。這僅限於我們的家庭業務,並且是在本季度末發生的,基於他們為適應不斷變化的環境而採取的一些措施。我們確實預計第四季會產生一定影響。
I'll have Luc Walk through the impacts for both quarters, as we look at this and as we understand retailers' plans, I think it's just helpful perspective. We don't view this as a strategic issue, we're not seeing any consumer out of stocks at shelf, that's putting any of our category at risk. This really is retailers doing everything possible to manage their complex supply chains, given the changing environment, and I'll pass it over to Luc to talk about just how impacted Q3 and how we're thinking about Q4.
當我們審視這個問題並了解零售商的計劃時,我將讓 Luc Walk 闡述這兩個季度的影響,我認為這只是一個有益的觀點。我們不認為這是一個策略性問題,我們沒有看到任何消費者缺貨的情況,這會讓我們的任何產品類別面臨風險。考慮到不斷變化的環境,零售商確實在盡一切可能管理其複雜的供應鏈,我將把話題交給 Luc,讓他談談第三季受到的影響以及我們對第四季的看法。
Luc Bellet - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President
Luc Bellet - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President
Yeah, certainly. So, as you look in Q3, this was a fairly modest. It was big when you look at the household segment, and when you look at total company, it was less than a point, and we expect most of the impact to actually come in Q4. So you, it's hard to just put a specific numbers because there's a lot of volatility in Q4, but that's embedded in our outlook range.
是的,當然。因此,正如您在第三季度所看到的,這是一個相當溫和的水平。如果從家庭部分來看,這個影響很大;但如果從整個公司來看,這個影響還不到一個點,我們預計大部分影響實際上會在第四季度顯現。因此,很難給出一個具體的數字,因為第四季度波動很大,但這已經包含在我們的展望範圍內。
Peter Grom - Analyst
Peter Grom - Analyst
Great, thanks so much.
太好了,非常感謝。
Operator
Operator
Anna Lazul, Bank of America.
美國銀行的安娜‧拉祖爾 (Anna Lazul)。
Anna Lazul - Analyst
Anna Lazul - Analyst
Hi, good afternoon.
嗨,下午好。
Thank you so much for the question. I wanted to ask on the promotional activity that you mentioned, the prepared remarks as being largely normalized at this point, but it does appear you still have some promo activity in certain categories, like Glad maybe or promo activity might not be as productive at this point. So I was wondering if you could talk a bit about promotional activity by category.
非常感謝您的提問。我想問您提到的促銷活動,準備好的評論目前已基本正常化,但看起來您在某些類別中仍然有一些促銷活動,例如“可能很高興”或促銷活動目前可能不那麼有成效。所以我想知道您是否可以談談按類別劃分的促銷活動。
And then secondly on the introduction of innovation, just wondering how you're squaring the introduction of more premium products with a weaker consumer sentiment and a greater need for product investment here?
其次,關於創新的引入,我只是想知道您如何將更多高端產品的引入與較弱的消費者情緒和更大的產品投資需求相協調?
Linda Rendle - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer
Linda Rendle - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer
Sure, so on promotion, we are seeing at the aggregate level, promotion normalized and about what our expectation was, and so that's going back to levels that we saw pre-COVID, and that continues to be true. But we absolutely are seeing by category nuances and differences, some categories promotions slightly lower than that, some categories promotion is higher, you call that Glad and that is one of the categories where we're seeing higher promotion.
當然,就促銷而言,我們在總體水平上看到促銷已恢復正常,與我們的預期大致相同,因此這將回到我們在疫情之前的水平,而且這種情況將繼續保持。但我們確實看到了類別之間的細微差別和差異,一些類別的促銷活動略低,一些類別的促銷活動較高,你稱之為“高興”,這是我們看到促銷活動較高的類別之一。
And we're seeing from competition some fairly deep discounting going on different sizes at some large retailers, and we've seen that behavior since our second quarter and we're seeing that persist through the third quarter, and into the fourth quarter.
我們從競爭對手那裡看到,一些大型零售商對不同尺寸的商品進行了相當大的折扣,我們從第二季就開始看到這種行為,而這種行為持續到第三季和第四季。
So definitely, competition, looking for share of wallets, in that category. We've responded, but we're also trying to be very rational. We don't grow these categories by doing deep discounting and promotion. We use that strategically to remind consumers to buy, to grow market baskets, to be in promotional activities with retailers at times that are important to them.
因此,在這一類別中,競爭肯定存在,都在爭奪錢包份額。我們已經做出了回應,但我們也試著保持理性。我們不會透過大幅折扣和促銷來增加這些類別的銷售量。我們策略性地利用它來提醒消費者購買、擴大購物籃、在對他們來說重要的時間與零售商一起進行促銷活動。
So we're trying to be disciplined on this, but we're watching it really closely and ensuring that we have the right value itself. And that leads to your next question on innovation, and what we're seeing is consumers are absolutely willing to pay a premium for innovation that delivers them superior value and a better experience.
因此,我們試圖對此進行嚴格約束,但我們正在密切關注並確保我們本身俱有正確的價值。這就引出了您關於創新的下一個問題,我們看到的是,消費者絕對願意為能夠為他們帶來卓越價值和更好體驗的創新支付溢價。
So we're seeing many of our innovations. Scentiva is a great example, that's a premium that's doing very well, as well as the recent launches, in toilet wands, it's a premium, we're seeing our premium cat litter executions doing very well in market. Our premium fees, Hidden Valley launches all doing well, and at the same time we're seeing consumers that are also looking for value in different ways, whether that be pack sizes, and we offer pack sizes that address all of those needs, whether they be low out of pocket opening price points or very large sizes to get the very best value per use or per ounce.
因此我們看到了許多創新。Scentiva 就是一個很好的例子,它是一款表現非常好的高端產品,以及最近推出的馬桶清潔棒,它是一款高端產品,我們看到我們的高端貓砂產品在市場上表現非常好。我們的高級收費產品、Hidden Valley 的推出都表現良好,同時,我們看到消費者也在以不同的方式尋求價值,無論是包裝尺寸,我們提供的包裝尺寸都能滿足所有這些需求,無論是較低的自付開價點還是非常大的尺寸,以獲得每次使用或每盎司的最佳價值。
And we're seeing consumers go there when we feel good about the mix that we have across the retailers, and of course, we're broadly assorted and all the retailers where consumers shop. So, we feel good about our ability to continue to innovate in premium segments, and it'll also be very important for us to continue to ensure that we have the right promotions in place, again, at the levels that we expect that are normalized. We don't see that environment changing in any meaningful way at the moment, outside of the small category examples that I called out.
當我們對零售商的組合感到滿意時,我們看到消費者會去那裡,當然,我們的商品種類繁多,並且是消費者購物的所有零售商。因此,我們對自己在高端領域繼續創新的能力感到滿意,而且對我們來說,繼續確保我們在我們預期的正常化水平上實施正確的促銷活動也非常重要。目前,除了我提到的小類別範例之外,我們還沒有看到環境發生任何有意義的變化。
And then continuing to ensure that we have, the right price value as we do that limited strategic pricing that Luc talked about in response to tariffs. But overall, I would say, our value continues to be strong with consumers. If you look at the consumer value measure that we have, we're still significantly up than we were at the beginning of the strategy period and pre-COVID. Actually, household penetration is up for us late lasts 52 weeks.
然後繼續確保我們擁有正確的價格價值,就像呂克在回應關稅時所說的那樣,我們採取有限的策略定價。但總體而言,我想說,我們的價值對消費者來說仍然具有強大的吸引力。如果你看一下我們的消費者價值衡量標準,就會發現我們仍然比戰略期開始時和新冠疫情之前有顯著提高。實際上,我們的家庭普及率在過去 52 週內一直在上升。
Clorox is a brand that's up significantly over 2 points of household penetration in the last 52 weeks, and as our Clorox portfolio is very premium in the category. So feeling good about our ability to deliver on that core value equation that we have, which is more premium products and premium experiences, and consumers continue to be willing to pay for them.
在過去 52 週內,Clorox 品牌的家庭滲透率大幅上升了 2 個百分點,而且我們的 Clorox 產品組合在該類別中非常高端。因此,我們對實現核心價值方程式的能力感到滿意,即提供更多優質產品和優質體驗,並且消費者願意繼續為此付費。
Anna Lazul - Analyst
Anna Lazul - Analyst
Okay, that's super helpful thanks so much.
好的,這非常有幫助,非常感謝。
Operator
Operator
Bonnie Herzog, Goldman Sachs.
高盛的邦妮·赫爾佐格。
Bonnie Herzog - Analyst
Bonnie Herzog - Analyst
All right, thank you. Hi. I was hoping you could provide an update on your upcoming ERP transition and how does the current demand, backdrop impact your shipments and then the inventory build out? I guess I'm trying to understand why you're now expecting a greater lift on organic sales from the transitioning to Q4 than you previously thought visibility do you have on this? Also curious if you expect to unwind to be evenly split in Q1 and Q2 next year, possibly a greater impact in Q1.
好的,謝謝。你好。我希望您能提供有關即將進行的 ERP 轉換的最新信息,以及當前的需求、背景如何影響您的發貨量以及庫存的增加?我想我想了解的是,為什麼您現在預期從過渡到第四季度,有機銷售額的提升幅度會比您之前想像的更大,您對此有什麼了解嗎?我還想知道,您是否預計明年第一季和第二季的放鬆幅度會均等,可能對第一季的影響更大。
Linda Rendle - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer
Linda Rendle - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer
Sure, Bonnie, I'll start and then I'll pass it over to Luc to talk about the impacts and how we're thinking about that, playing out over the couple of quarters. For first, from an ERP perspective, we remain on track to our execution to make this transition coming up here at the beginning of next fiscal year.
當然,邦妮,我先開始,然後我會把它交給盧克來談談其影響以及我們對此的看法,以及在未來幾個季度中如何發揮作用。首先,從 ERP 的角度來看,我們的執行進度仍在按計劃進行,以便在下一個財年開始時實現這一轉變。
We're working really closely with retailers right now on the plans, and our team feels prepared and ready to go. And as we had a successful transition on our ERP in Canada last year as well as a successful transition on our financial planning tools. So I feel good about, coming up on this transition and anxious to get the capabilities that this will unlock for the company.
我們目前正與零售商密切合作制定計劃,我們的團隊已經準備好了。去年,我們在加拿大成功完成了 ERP 的轉型,同時我們的財務規劃工具也成功完成了轉型。因此,我對即將到來的轉變感到很高興,並渴望獲得這將為公司帶來的能力。
As it relates to the demand, this was something we gave an outlook to last quarter, but knew that this would be refined as we worked with retailers on their specific plans, and that's what you're seeing in the new Outlook is that refinement as retailers have come back and given us a better idea of what they will take from an inventory perspective.
就需求而言,我們在上個季度給出了展望,但我們知道,隨著我們與零售商合作制定具體計劃,這一展望將會得到完善,而您在新的展望中看到的是,隨著零售商的回歸,這一展望將得到改進,讓我們更好地了解他們將從庫存角度採取什麼措施。
Before I pass it to Luc, I'll just say one more thing, which is, to the degree that the environment is volatile is just, how we're thinking about this and how retailers are putting this in perspective. They have given us a very clear idea of what they're going to take, but I would say, we have a wide range in our outlook and these results could vary a bit, given the fact that they are adjusting their inventories real time.
在將其傳遞給 Luc 之前,我只想再說一件事,即環境波動的程度,以及我們如何看待這個問題以及零售商如何看待這個問題。他們已經向我們明確說明了他們將採取什麼措施,但我想說,我們的展望範圍很廣,考慮到他們正在即時調整庫存,這些結果可能會有所不同。
This is what they want to have in stock to ensure that our categories remain in stock. They have a lot of history of doing these. But as you can imagine, this is an interesting time to be doing this, given what's going on, but we feel pretty good about these estimates, given retailers, have worked at a very detailed level with us on exactly what they need by category, but that I'll hand it over to Luc.
這是他們想要的庫存,以確保我們的產品類別保持庫存。他們做這些事已經有很長的歷史了。但正如你所想像的,考慮到正在發生的事情,這是一個有趣的時機,但我們對這些估計感到非常滿意,因為零售商已經與我們進行了非常詳細的合作,確定了他們按類別需要什麼,但我會把它交給 Luc。
Luc Bellet - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President
Luc Bellet - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President
Yeah, no, thanks, Linda. Yeah, so I think at that point, the plan is going as expected, when we have the final confirmations from most of our retailers now, as I mentioned, there would be some, there's a little bit of variability around the numbers. The net in aggregate, we expect retailers to build about 1.5 weeks of inventory and again they're building their inventory ahead of us going live in the new system to make sure that they can mitigate any potential risk of out of stocks.
是的,不,謝謝,琳達。是的,所以我認為在那時,計劃正在按預期進行,當我們從大多數零售商那裡得到最終確認時,正如我所提到的,數字會有一些變化。總體而言,我們預計零售商將建立約 1.5 週的庫存,並且他們在我們上線新系統之前就建立了庫存,以確保他們可以減輕任何潛在的缺貨風險。
Now as you look at the range just for perspective, one or two days of inventories, could equate to 1 points or 2 points of growth in the quarter. And so that's why you see a fairly wide range in our outlook. Now as far as the reversal, all of it, not only the impact on the P&L, but there will be also some impact on the balance sheets will reverse in the front half of next year with the vast majority reversing in the first quarter.
現在,僅從視角來看,一兩天的庫存可能相當於本季 1 個點或 2 個點的成長。這就是為什麼你會看到我們的前景相當廣闊。現在就逆轉而言,所有這些,不僅對損益表的影響,而且對資產負債表也會有一些影響,將在明年上半年逆轉,絕大多數將在第一季逆轉。
Robert Moskow - Analyst
Robert Moskow - Analyst
Okay, thanks for that. I guess it's just Linda, what you were mentioning earlier, I guess that's why I'm a little surprised given the falling demand backstop that now want to buy more and then maybe just a quick follow on question related to this, what should we expect in terms of short and long term margin, impact as a result of your ERP transition? I can't recall if you ever quantified that for us, but I know it's a positive.
好的,謝謝。我想這只是琳達,你之前提到的,我想這就是為什麼我有點驚訝,因為需求支持下降,現在想要購買更多,然後可能只是一個與此相關的快速後續問題,我們應該期待短期和長期利潤,以及 ERP 轉型的影響?我不記得您是否曾經為我們量化過這一點,但我知道這是積極的。
Linda Rendle - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer
Linda Rendle - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer
Sure, yeah, this is, for retailers, this is a very important transition for them because they want to make sure that we meet our mutual goal, which is ensuring no impact to their shopper and to our consumer. And so it's very important to them during a time like this to ensure that they have that backup inventory, just like we have backup inventory planned, in our own system to accommodate that, and they wouldn't want to put this at risk regardless of what's going on in the environment.
當然,對於零售商來說,這是一個非常重要的轉變,因為他們希望確保我們實現共同的目標,即確保不會對他們的購物者和我們的消費者產生影響。因此,在這樣的時期,對他們來說,確保他們有備用庫存非常重要,就像我們計劃的備用庫存一樣,在我們自己的系統中適應這種情況,無論環境如何,他們都不想將其置於風險之中。
I think the volatility that we're referring to is the fact that they're managing this and just base inventory at the same time and that's why there's such a wide Range around it, but they feel very strongly, as do we, that we hold excess inventory across the supply chain to ensure if there are any little bumps, that we can cover them.
我認為,我們提到的波動性是指他們同時管理庫存和基本庫存,這就是為什麼庫存範圍如此之大,但他們和我們一樣強烈地感覺到,我們在整個供應鏈中持有過剩庫存,以確保如果出現任何小波動,我們都可以彌補。
So, they remain committed to that, as do we. Maybe just framing the margin piece, obviously we have built a toolbox with our holistic margin management program to return margins to what they were, pre-COVID, and we've done that from a gross margin perspective.
因此,他們和我們一樣,仍然致力於此。也許只是建立了利潤率部分,顯然我們已經建立了一個工具箱,其中包含我們的整體利潤率管理計劃,以使利潤率恢復到 COVID 之前的水平,並且我們已經從毛利率的角度做到了這一點。
From a long term perspective, this continues to buoy our confidence in being able to deliver our EBIT margin goal, which is 25 basis points to 50 basis points annually, and this set of tools, the ERP, all of the technologies we're putting in place to not only help us grow but also help us be more efficient, are part of our confidence in continuing our margin expansion program even in an environment that's pretty uncertain and volatile.
從長遠來看,這將繼續增強我們實現息稅前利潤率目標的信心,即每年 25 個基點至 50 個基點,而這套工具、ERP 以及我們正在實施的所有技術不僅幫助我們發展,還幫助我們提高效率,這是我們即使在非常不確定和動蕩的環境中繼續執行利潤率擴張計劃的信心的一部分。
Bonnie Herzog - Analyst
Bonnie Herzog - Analyst
All right. Thank you so much.
好的。太感謝了。
Operator
Operator
(Operator Instructions)
(操作員指示)
Robert Moskow, TD Cowen
羅伯特·莫斯科(Robert Moskow),TD Cowen
Robert Moskow - Analyst
Robert Moskow - Analyst
Hey, I actually had two questions. One was I was wondering if you could give us a little more like broad perspective on when you do give us a tariff impact. What do you think will be included in there? Will be finished goods, packaging, will it be exports to Canada that are that you will include in that estimate and then a quick follow up?
嘿,我實際上有兩個問題。一是我想知道您是否能為我們提供更多關於關稅影響的廣泛觀點。您認為其中會包含哪些內容?您會將成品、包裝以及出口到加拿大的情況都納入估價中,然後進行快速跟進嗎?
Luc Bellet - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President
Luc Bellet - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President
Yes, well, most of it is, packaging and raw supply, not very little, finished goods, and then we did mention there is some import, coming from Canada and Mexico and the US. It's relatively small. I think what we share is about single digits of our total cost, and we do have some exports, to Canada as well, but again, it's a fairly small amount of the total product, supplied in the country. So that's the extent of our exposure.
是的,大部分是包裝和原料供應,成品也不少,然後我們確實提到有一些進口,來自加拿大、墨西哥和美國。它相對較小。我認為我們分擔的成本大約佔總成本的個位數,而且我們也有一些出口到加拿大,但同樣,這只是該國供應的總產品中相當小的一部分。這就是我們的曝光程度。
Robert Moskow - Analyst
Robert Moskow - Analyst
Okay, and then the follow up, I think you're the first CPG company I've heard who's talked about the pull forward of spending on electronics, automobiles. I mean, I totally get it, but do you have like any evidence that that impacts grocery basket, like purchases of staples, do you think there's like money that comes out of one and goes into the other?
好的,然後是後續問題,我想你們是我聽說的第一家談論提前增加電子產品和汽車支出的 CPG 公司。我的意思是,我完全明白,但是你有任何證據表明這會影響食品雜貨籃,例如購買主食,你認為錢會從一個地方流向另一個地方嗎?
Linda Rendle - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer
Linda Rendle - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer
I think it's safe to assume that consumers have one wallet, at the end of the day, and they're making distributive choices on that wallet.
我認為可以安全地假設消費者最終只有一個錢包,並且他們會用這個錢包做出分配選擇。
And what we're watching carefully is that wallet and what's happening, and certainly the evidence would point to the fact that they are spending more in certain categories, given what we're seeing broadly across industries well beyond ours.
我們正在密切關注錢包和正在發生的事情,當然,有證據表明,他們在某些類別上的支出增加了,這一點從我們在我們行業之外廣泛看到的情況來看是可以理解的。
And then correspondingly at the same time we're seeing what we're seeing in in our categories. I think the piece that cements it for us is the fact that we're not seeing at-home consumer behaviors change yet. So that really points to the fact that they're changing the shape of their wallet and spending versus changing their behaviors and deprioritizing different categories.
然後相應地,我們同時會看到我們所看到的內容。我認為,讓我們確信這一點的是我們尚未看到家庭消費者行為改變。所以這實際上表明他們正在改變錢包和支出的狀況,而不是改變他們的行為並降低不同類別的優先事項。
But at the end of the day they have a limited amount of money and they have to distribute that based on their choices, and I think certainly they're reacting to an environment where they're not exactly sure what are going to cost coming up in the future and they're thinking about those big purchases and they're trimming in others and anecdotally we've talked to cost consumers and they have said just that's exactly what they're trying to do is manage their overall wallet.
但最終他們的錢是有限的,他們必須根據自己的選擇來分配這筆錢,我認為他們肯定會對這樣一種環境做出反應:他們不確定未來的成本是多少,他們正在考慮那些大宗採購,並削減其他開支,據傳聞,我們曾與成本消費者交談過,他們說,他們正在努力做的就是管理他們的整體錢包。
Can we provide a one to one causal relationship? No, it would be too early to do that and difficult, but certainly all of the evidence points to the fact that consumers are adjusting their spending, and that's the reason why our categories are being impacted.
我們可以提供一對一的因果關係嗎?不,現在這樣做還為時過早,而且很困難,但所有證據都表明消費者正在調整支出,這就是我們的產品類別受到影響的原因。
Robert Moskow - Analyst
Robert Moskow - Analyst
I got it. Makes sense.
我得到了它。有道理。
Operator
Operator
Kaumil Gajrawala, Jefferies.
傑富瑞的 Kaumil Gajrawala。
Kaumil Gajrawala - Analyst
Kaumil Gajrawala - Analyst
Hey everybody, I guess still digging into this consumer, slowdown, which obviously you guys are not alone, but when I look between divisions and I see that, how much more it seemed to impact households than some of the other divisions, which at least to me, I would have guessed is a division that, would be a little bit more resilient?
嘿,大家好,我想大家仍然在研究消費者經濟放緩的問題,顯然你們並不孤單,但是當我查看各個部門時,我發現它對家庭的影響似乎比其他一些部門大多少,至少對我來說,我猜這個部門會更有彈性一些?
Particularly, so many sort of at home categories in there, so a couple of follow-ups on that, which is, if you feel like maybe there's excess inventory within the consumer's pantry, obviously you talked about retail, and then second, what is it about those particular brands or categories that were, that led to them being impacted a lot more?
特別是其中有如此多的家用類別,因此需要進行一些後續調查,也就是說,如果您覺得消費者的食品儲藏室裡可能有過剩的庫存,顯然您談到了零售,其次,是什麼讓那些特定的品牌或類別受到如此大的影響?
Linda Rendle - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer
Linda Rendle - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer
Yeah, this one, I think requires us to get into retail sales versus our sales, and that's where you're going to see a lot of the difference in what went on with household. So, if you look at retail sales, those categories generally looked like the categories did for the rest of our portfolio and frankly looked well beyond what you'd see in scanners. So, we certainly saw that in international, we saw that in professional.
是的,我認為這一點要求我們進入零售銷售而不是銷售領域,這就是你會看到家庭銷售方面發生的巨大差異的地方。因此,如果你看一下零售額,這些類別通常看起來就像我們投資組合中其他產品的類別一樣,坦白說,遠遠超出了你在掃描器中看到的範圍。所以,我們確實在國際上看到了這一點,在專業領域也看到了這一點。
All of our categories impacted given what is going on. For household as it relates to why sales were down, there's a few things going on. One, we talked about the inventory that Luc called out that the adjustments happened all in household for us, and that is impacting our sales, but not necessarily consumer takeaway or retail sales, because certainly we were in stock in those moments.
鑑於目前的情況,我們所有的類別都受到了影響。對於家庭而言,銷售額下降的原因有幾件事。首先,我們談到了庫存,盧克說,對我們來說,調整都發生在家庭中,這會影響我們的銷售,但不一定會影響消費者外賣或零售銷售,因為在那些時候我們肯定有庫存。
We saw some timing and weather issues Easters later, we had, weather issues impacting Kingsford, even though we grow share there and then later we had a promotion last year that we didn't last this year, and so there was a timing issue. But what I would say is generally those categories don't look any different than our other categories do.
復活節後,我們發現了一些時間和天氣問題,儘管我們在那裡的份額有所增長,但天氣問題影響了金斯福德,然後我們去年進行了促銷,但今年沒有持續下去,所以存在時間問題。但我想說的是,一般來說這些類別看起來與我們的其他類別沒有什麼不同。
It's just a number of factors impacted our sales and household this quarter, and then Luc talked about the fact there will be some impact in Q4 as that inventory correction continues to happen, but we would largely expect those things to normalize once you kind of take a step back and just don't look at the quarterly to quarterly impact, but over time.
本季度,有許多因素影響了我們的銷售和家庭,然後 Luc 談到,隨著庫存調整的繼續發生,第四季度將受到一些影響,但我們基本上預計,一旦你退一步來看,這些情況就會正常化,不要只看季度間的影響,而是要看隨著時間的推移。
The one place that we would say is being hit harder right now is Glad, given the promotional environment. That was less about consumers adjusting their behavior, given what's going on in the atmosphere and more around competitive activity, but that's no different than what we've seen in Glad over time, and so, we feel decent that there's not a category that is having a wildly different impact than another.
考慮到促銷環境,我們認為目前受到打擊最嚴重的是 Glad。考慮到當時的氣氛,這與消費者調整行為關係不大,而更多的是圍繞競爭活動,但這與我們長期以來在 Glad 中看到的情況沒有什麼不同,因此,我們感到欣慰的是,沒有一個類別對另一個類別產生截然不同的影響。
On the positive, what I would call out is a good example of cleaning and that's a place where we grew shares significantly. The category was down, but not as much as some of the other categories were, and you can see the performance on our sales were very strong, as well as all the other, line items from a margin and, EBIT perspective.
從積極的方面來看,我想說的是清潔方面的一個很好的例子,這也是我們市場份額大幅增長的地方。該類別的銷售額有所下降,但下降幅度不如其他類別那麼大,而且從利潤率和息稅前利潤的角度來看,您可以看到我們的銷售業績非常強勁,所有其他項目也一樣。
So again, the impacts varied. All of our categories were impacted to some degree, but the difference in what you're seeing in our sales number and retail sales would say that some of this again is timing and just impacts of lapping, versus anything structurally different in our businesses.
因此,影響又是多種多樣的。我們的所有類別都受到了一定程度的影響,但您在我們的銷售數字和零售額中看到的差異表明,其中一些再次是時間和重疊的影響,而不是我們業務結構上的不同。
Kaumil Gajrawala - Analyst
Kaumil Gajrawala - Analyst
Okay, got it.
好的,明白了。
Operator
Operator
Javier Escalante, Evercore ISI.
哈維爾·埃斯卡蘭特,Evercore ISI。
Javier Escalante - Analyst
Javier Escalante - Analyst
I would like to go back into your guidance for fiscal '25 organic cells is 2, if you exclude the ERP transition. A sensitivity, point that Q4 organic cells, you are guiding to minus 4 around. Is that correct? And why is it that, such a low growth, given the easy come from a year ago?
如果您排除 ERP 轉換,我想回到您對財政 25 有機單元的指導是 2。一個敏感點,Q4有機細胞,你引導到負4左右。對嗎?為什麼與一年前相比,成長如此之快,但成長率卻如此低?
Luc Bellet - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President
Luc Bellet - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President
Yeah, I'll take that, Javier. Thanks for the question. So maybe let me just, there's a few moving pieces as we think about Q4, so let me unpack this a little bit.
是的,我接受,哈維爾。謝謝你的提問。因此,也許讓我來談談,當我們考慮第四季度時,有幾個變動因素,所以讓我稍微解釋一下。
You, first, our organic growth is 4% to 5%, and so with one quarter remaining, that means Q4 organic growth of 4% to 8%. Now we talked about the impact of the ERP transitions. This is 2% to 3% for the full year, so that equates to about 7% to 11% for Q4 because our Q4 is generally a little a little higher sales than the remaining of the other quarters.
首先,我們的有機成長率是 4% 到 5%,所以還剩一個季度,這意味著第四季度的有機成長率為 4% 到 8%。現在我們討論 ERP 轉型的影響。全年的成長率為 2% 至 3%,因此相當於第四季度的成長率約為 7% 至 11%,因為我們在第四季的銷售額通常比其他季度略高一些。
So if you back that out, you kind of get to Q4 organic sales growth excluding the impact of ERP of about 3%. So not far from what is the number you shared. Now, of course, there's a range around that and we talked about it.
因此,如果你放棄這一點,你就會得到第四季度有機銷售額成長,不包括 ERP 的影響,約 3%。那麼與您分享的數字相去不遠。當然,現在有一個範圍,我們已經討論過了。
And then essentially if I'm back on my street, there's really two parts to it. There is the, we're assuming that recent consumption slowdown persist in Q4, and, we talked about this, and there's also some headwinds from retailer inventory reductions that we stopped seeing in the household in Q3 and we'll continue in Q4.
基本上,如果我回到我的街道上,事情實際上分為兩部分。我們假設最近的消費放緩將在第四季度持續下去,而且,我們已經討論過這個問題,此外,零售商庫存減少也帶來了一些阻力,這種阻力在第三季度已不再出現在家庭中,並將在第四季度繼續存在。
Javier Escalante - Analyst
Javier Escalante - Analyst
Thank you, Luc. And a follow up to Linda, and it's kind of like digging a little bit into the household sector that was weak, and I appreciate the keys for peace. You also, I believe, advance a little bit of shipments in the second quarter. But the other two big businesses there are Glad and Tech leader and what they have in common is that you have very strong value players.
謝謝你,盧克。接下來是琳達的後續報道,這有點像是深入挖掘薄弱的家庭部門,我很欣賞和平的關鍵。我相信你們也會在第二季提早一點出貨。但另外兩家大公司是 Glad 和 Tech Leader,他們的共同點是擁有非常強大的價值參與者。
So if you could talk about the traction from your innovation in these two categories, retailer reception. And consumer reception, and to what extent, what gives you confidence that you do not have a pricing issue, a structural pricing issue beyond promotions, given that you have value players with very strong business propositions in these categories?
因此,如果您可以談談您的創新在這兩個類別中的吸引力,即零售商的接受度。以及消費者的接受度,以及在多大程度上,是什麼讓您有信心您不存在定價問題,不存在促銷之外的結構性定價問題,因為您在這些類別中擁有具有非常強大商業主張的價值參與者?
Linda Rendle - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer
Linda Rendle - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer
Sure, I'll take them in turn, Javier, because Glad and litter are two, different sets of circumstances, although, as good, tough competition in both of those categories. So Glad is, as we've noted, we're seeing increased competitive activity from the other branded player in the category.
當然,我會依次對它們進行處理,哈維爾,因為高興和生氣是兩種不同的情況,儘管在這兩個類別中,競爭都很激烈。很高興看到,正如我們所注意到的,該類別中其他品牌的競爭活動正在加強。
Reducing pricing, starting back in Q2, which looked like temporary price decreases, although those have not rolled off yet, and they're focusing those on some of the larger value sizes, and in some cases that's putting them below private label pricing, which we view as not sustainable over the long term, we're watching it really closely, but if you look at that category, even with that, it held up pretty well, that was one that was down a little bit less than some of our other categories were.
從第二季開始降低價格,這看起來像是暫時的降價,儘管這些降價還沒有結束,而且他們把重點放在一些價值較大的產品上,在某些情況下,這使得它們的價格低於自有品牌的價格,我們認為這種定價從長遠來看是不可持續的,我們正在密切關注它,但如果你看一下這個類別,即使如此,它仍然保持得很好,這個類別的一些類別的降價。
And so we see actually fairly resilient given what's going on with the consumer. They're not generating less trash. It's a hard solution to have to get rid of trash, so we're looking at that as one that will over time, more normalized. We've seen that in Glad for many years.
因此,考慮到消費者的現狀,我們認為其實際上具有相當強的彈性。他們產生的垃圾並沒有減少。清除垃圾是一個艱難的解決方案,因此我們認為隨著時間的推移,這個問題會變得更加正常化。多年來,我們已經在 Glad 中看到過這種情況。
Our innovation is doing very well in that category. At CAGNY you might recall, Javier, we spoke about our Bahama Bliss launch in our ForceFlex business, which is doing very well. We're expanding Bahama Bliss right now and different retailers. And we continue to see people willing to pay that premium for a better trash bag experience, whether that be, a delightful color, a great scent, and we're making sure that, of course, we have the right value equation across that more premium line as well as our more base trash bag line as well.
我們的創新在該類別中表現非常出色。哈維爾,您可能還記得,在 CAGNY,我們談到了我們在 ForceFlex 業務中推出的 Bahama Bliss,這項業務表現非常出色。我們目前正在擴大 Bahama Bliss 和其他零售商。我們不斷看到人們願意為更好的垃圾袋體驗支付溢價,無論是令人愉悅的顏色還是美妙的氣味,當然,我們要確保在更高端的產品線和更基礎的垃圾袋產品線中都有正確的價值等式。
But we view this as just higher competitive activity and Glad. Given, what's going on in the category and with consumers, but nothing that makes us worried that our proposition around a premium trash bag won't continue to be successful in the future, and we're going to continue to spend advertising and sales promotion, innovation dollars, and continuing to ensure that we have the right mix across retailers, etc.
但我們認為這只是更高水準的競爭活動,並且很高興。考慮到該類別和消費者的現狀,我們並不擔心我們圍繞優質垃圾袋的主張在未來不會繼續取得成功,我們將繼續投入廣告和促銷、創新資金,並繼續確保我們在零售商中擁有正確的組合等。
The one thing that, we are very concentrated on this is a place where we're seeing channel shift happen quite a bit and people are moving to the club and online, etc. We have, distribution wherever consumer shop, but that's something that we're making sure that we even sharpen that that value proposition by retailer to ensure that we are capturing that channel shift, now and into the future.
我們非常關注的一件事是,我們看到管道轉變正在發生,人們正在轉向俱樂部和線上等。我們在消費者購物的任何地方都有分銷管道,但我們正在確保零售商進一步強化這一價值主張,以確保我們現在和將來都能抓住這種管道轉變。
And then for litter, there's a number of brands in the cat litter category, and we play into, we play in in the premium segment and then we have a smaller business and scoop away that plays in more of a mid-tier proposition. And we feel good about our ability to compete here. This is a place where innovation across our competitive set and our innovation does very well.
然後對於貓砂,貓砂類別中有很多品牌,我們涉足高端市場,然後我們的規模較小的公司和 ScoopAway 則更多地處於中端市場。我們對自己在這裡的競爭能力感到滿意。這就是我們整個競爭體系中創新表現非常出色的地方。
There's a number of unmet needs in the cat litter category, whether that be odor control, lack of tracking around the house when the cat litter gets stuck on cats paws, clumping, etc. And we've launched recently a litter that has the strongest odor control claim on the market with 30 days, that's doing very well, and we're seeing consumers react to those enhanced benefits.
貓砂類別中存在許多未滿足的需求,例如氣味控制、貓砂粘在貓爪上時不留痕跡、結塊等。我們最近推出了一款貓砂,號稱市場上氣味控制效果最強,有效期為 30 天,市場表現非常好,我們看到消費者對這些增強效果的反應。
But this is a category that is competitive, and, we talked about the fact that we were making it a bit more competitive for a while there because we were using promotion to ensure that we got consumers back. After we lost them due to the cyberattack, and we've made really great progress there, we have more to go, but continue to feel good that our investment in innovation, our investment in advertising and sales promotion is heading in the right direction, but we have more progress to make Javiera over the coming quarters.
但這是一個競爭激烈的類別,而且,我們談到了這樣一個事實,即我們正在使該類別的競爭更加激烈,因為我們正在使用促銷來確保我們能贏得消費者的回頭。在我們因網路攻擊而失去他們之後,我們在那裡取得了很大進展,我們還有更多工作要做,但我們繼續感到高興的是,我們在創新方面的投資,我們在廣告和促銷方面的投資正朝著正確的方向發展,但我們在未來幾個季度將取得更大的進展。
Operator
Operator
Andrea Teixeira, JP Morgan.
摩根大通的安德里亞特謝拉 (Andrea Teixeira)。
Andrea Teixeira - Analyst
Andrea Teixeira - Analyst
Incorporated and good afternoon everyone. Linda, you talked about the bifurcated consumer and understandably you have a portfolio that accommodates that the low end and the high end, but I was hoping to see if you can there are some examples you did share Inteva on the high end, but perhaps, give us some comfort on being able to pivot where the consumer is and meets the needs of on a pricing on a value perspective.
大家下午好。Linda,您談到了分叉消費者,可以理解的是,您的產品組合可以同時適應低端和高端市場,但我希望看看您是否可以分享一些關於高端 Inteva 的例子,但也許,這能讓我們感到安心,因為我們能夠根據消費者的喜好進行調整,並從價值角度滿足定價需求。
And also in terms of the channels you regain this high growth including clots as if you pivot away and some of the drugstore exposure that you may have that may be cooperating with this acceleration if you can, explain to us that?
而且就您重新獲得這種高增長的管道而言,包括凝塊,就好像您轉向了別處,並且您可能擁有的一些藥店曝光可能會與這種加速合作,如果可以的話,請向我們解釋一下?
Linda Rendle - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer
Linda Rendle - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer
Sure, Andrew, why don't I take the second part of your question first, and then I'll get into the portfolio question. So, in channels, we're broadly distributed everywhere and happen to be very strong in the channels where consumers are moving. So as we see them move into mass and club, these tend to be channels where we have placed early bets, and have very strong share positions and so feel good as consumers are moving into those channels in aggregate that we are there for them and that we have the right value proposition.
當然,安德魯,我先回答你問題的第二部分,然後再討論投資組合問題。因此,在通路方面,我們的分佈非常廣泛,並且在消費者流動的管道中非常強大。因此,當我們看到他們進入大眾和俱樂部時,這些往往是我們早期押注的管道,並且擁有非常強大的份額地位,因此當消費者總體上進入這些管道時,我們感到很高興,因為我們為他們服務,並且我們擁有正確的價值主張。
And drugstores, just as you noted, we're not a very strong player in drugs, that's a place given we don't have a big portfolio in more of the health and beauty areas that we are not overly distributed in, we're fairly distributed in. And again, we tend to be, stronger in the channels where consumers are choosing to shop today.
至於藥局,正如您所說,我們在藥品領域並不是非常強大的參與者,這是因為我們在更多的健康和美容領域沒有大量的投資組合,我們在這些領域的分佈並不過多,我們的分佈相當均勻。而且,我們傾向於在當今消費者選擇的購物管道上表現得更強大。
So feel good about our ability to deal with that changing environment. It can have an impact on, as you saw in this quarter, mix, it can have those types of impacts, but feel good about our ability to ensure consumers have what they need from Clorox.
因此,對我們應對不斷變化的環境的能力感到滿意。它可能會產生影響,正如您在本季度看到的那樣,它可能會產生那些類型的影響,但我們對我們確保消費者從 Clorox 獲得所需產品的能力感到滿意。
On the bifurcated side, this is a really interesting story, and maybe I'll tell you in cleaning how this is playing out, because it's an area that that worked really well for us over the last few years, but particularly if you look at this quarter, it's a great example.
從分叉的角度來看,這是一個非常有趣的故事,也許我會在清理過程中告訴你這是如何進行的,因為這是我們過去幾年中做得非常好的一個領域,但特別是如果你看看這個季度,這是一個很好的例子。
So we have the most premium cleaning products, we have things like a disinfecting wipe, which is one of the highest prices per use, but they're very convenient and consumers love them. And we also have diluted forms that are very good value on a price per ounce, like Clorox bleach, like pine fall dilutable cleaners.
因此,我們擁有最優質的清潔產品,例如消毒濕巾,其單次使用價格最高,但它們非常方便,消費者喜歡它們。我們還提供每盎司價格非常划算的稀釋劑,例如 Clorox 漂白劑和 pine fall 稀釋清潔劑。
And so what we've seen is consumers who are time starved continue to move into forms like disinfecting wipes. They're very convenient as you're dealing with things like cold and flu. So those segments continue to do well, as well as consumers who might be more stretched trading into things like dilutables and bleach. So for example, the bleach category was down, our share was up significantly, and then you saw the dilutable category, both strong and our share position within it strong.
因此,我們看到的是,時間緊迫的消費者繼續購買消毒濕紙巾等產品。當您治療感冒和流感等疾病時,它們非常方便。因此,這些細分市場繼續表現良好,而那些可能更願意購買稀釋劑和漂白水等產品的消費者也是如此。例如,漂白劑類別下降,我們的份額大幅上升,然後你會看到可稀釋劑類別表現強勁,我們在其中的份額也很強。
So that consumer as they're navigating their cleaning tasks at home, we have a portfolio that serves all of their needs, whether they're looking for something quick and convenient and they're willing to pay the premium like a disinfecting wipe or a toilet wand, as well as when they're looking to get the very best cost per use, and they're returning to our Pine-Sol brand or bleach.
因此,當消費者在家中進行清潔任務時,我們提供滿足其所有需求的產品組合,無論他們是在尋找快速便捷的產品並願意支付額外費用,例如消毒濕巾或馬桶清潔棒,還是當他們希望獲得最佳的每次使用成本時,他們都會回到我們的 Pine-Sol 品牌或漂白劑。
And that's a great example where we grow shares significantly this quarter. That business delivered strong financial performance this quarter, and we feel really well covered. You look at some of our other categories, that's less of a dynamic because it's us and private label, and we feel very good about our ability to compete. Kingsford's a great example where we grew share this quarter, even though that category, had some puts and takes given weather and timing.
這是一個很好的例子,本季我們的股價大幅成長。該業務本季實現了強勁的財務業績,我們感覺得到了充分的保障。看看我們的其他一些類別,它們的動態性較弱,因為這是我們自己的自有品牌,我們對自己的競爭能力感到非常滿意。金斯福德 (Kingsford) 就是一個很好的例子,本季我們的市佔率有所增長,儘管由於天氣和時間因素,該類別的市佔率有所下降。
But we grew share in the grilling category, so I feel very good about that. But generally our portfolio, we are well insulated in places where consumers may trade between different occasions and value and price point, and then, in certain categories where we have a limited of competitive set, con consumers continue to look for that premium and we're well suited as well.
但我們在燒烤類別的份額有所增長,所以我對此感覺非常好。但總體而言,我們的產品組合在消費者可能在不同場合、價值和價格點之間進行交易的領域中表現良好,然後,在某些我們的競爭有限的類別中,消費者繼續尋找溢價,我們也很適合。
The other thing I would note is in categories like Glad, we have more premium trash bags and we have more core base trash bags. So, if consumers don't want all the bells and whistles, they can certainly choose to have a trash bag with less of that at a lower cost per use. But that's something we'll continue to watch as we move forward, we use our innovation, price pack architecture, all of those tools to ensure that we have the right lineup, but feel very good about what we have today.
我還要注意的另一件事是,在 Glad 等類別中,我們有更多的高級垃圾袋,我們有更多的核心基礎垃圾袋。因此,如果消費者不想要所有花哨的裝飾,他們當然可以選擇裝飾較少、每次使用成本較低的垃圾袋。但這是我們在前進過程中會繼續關注的事情,我們會利用我們的創新、價格包架構以及所有這些工具來確保我們擁有正確的陣容,但對我們今天所擁有的感到非常滿意。
Andrea Teixeira - Analyst
Andrea Teixeira - Analyst
So is it fair, that's super helpful. Is it fair to say that other than Glad, the Glad trash bags, you gain share in most categories?
那麼這公平嗎?這非常有幫助。是否可以說,除了 Glad 垃圾袋之外,你們在大多數產品類別中都佔有份額?
Linda Rendle - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer
Linda Rendle - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer
In aggregate, Andrea, we held share for the quarter and, to be fair, that was less than our expectations, but I actually feel very good about it given what went on in the quarter from a com category perspective, but we had puts and takes on that. So we declined in sharing litter, for example, which we knew was going to happen because we were lapping in events, grew in grilling, grew in food, grew in cleaning, so it was mixed, but in aggregate we held cheer for the quarter.
總體而言,安德里亞,我們在本季度持有的份額,公平地說,低於我們的預期,但考慮到從通信類別角度來看本季度發生的情況,我實際上對此感到非常滿意,但我們對此有所保留。例如,我們拒絕分享垃圾,我們知道這種情況會發生,因為我們在活動中不斷增加,燒烤、食物和清潔工作都在增加,所以情況好壞參半,但總的來說,我們為本季度感到高興。
Andrea Teixeira - Analyst
Andrea Teixeira - Analyst
It's super helpful. Thank you.
這非常有幫助。謝謝。
Operator
Operator
Kevin Grundy, BNP Paribas.
法國巴黎銀行的凱文‧格蘭迪。
Kevin Grundy - Analyst
Kevin Grundy - Analyst
Great. Thanks. Good afternoon, everyone.
偉大的。謝謝。大家下午好。
I wanted to ask, just sort of given pulling the conversation together here and then ask about capital deployment, a lot of discussion on slowing in categories hardly unique to your portfolio, growth rates well below long-term targets. It looks like this may sustain and kind of be an obstacle if you think about guiding, for next year.
我想問一下,只是為了把這裡的談話集中起來,然後詢問有關資本配置的問題,很多關於放緩的討論並不是您投資組合獨有的,增長率遠低於長期目標。如果您考慮指導明年,這似乎可能會持續並成為一種障礙。
It sort of potentially presents you and the Board with the decision to leverage the balance sheet potentially and look to move into grower categories, not just even year term but even longer term, I would say structurally, the flip side to that, the company had, some success, some maybe you know some shortfalls, if you will, from an M&A perspective.
這可能會讓您和董事會做出決定,利用資產負債表的潛在優勢,並尋求進入種植者類別,不僅是一年期,甚至是更長期,我想說,從結構上講,另一方面,從併購的角度來看,公司取得了一些成功,但您可能知道存在一些不足之處。
So that's all kind of a big wind up, Linda. How are you? How is the Board kind of thinking about M&A? Does this environment, does it change it? Did it potentially elevate, the importance of the opportunity, of M&A? So I'd love to get your thoughts there.
所以這真是個大麻煩,琳達。你好嗎?董事會對於併購有何看法?這個環境會改變它嗎?它是否有可能提升併購機會的重要性?所以我很想知道你的想法。
Linda Rendle - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer
Linda Rendle - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer
Sure, Kevin, I think the headline will be, and as it has been for a number of years, we're going to control what we can, and I feel very good about our ability to control what we can, and, as we look to what's important for us, we want to continue to deliver strong earnings performance in an environment that is very uncertain and very volatile.
當然,凱文,我認為標題將是,正如多年來一樣,我們將控制我們所能控制的事情,我對我們控制所能控制的事情的能力感到非常滿意,並且,當我們考慮對我們來說重要的事情時,我們希望在非常不確定和非常不穩定的環境中繼續提供強勁的盈利表現。
And we feel very good about our ability to do that, and that's of course behind the capabilities that we've invested in, whether it be technology, holistic margin management, innovation, give us a wide range of things to ensure we can continue to expand margin and deliver earnings.
我們對自己做到這一點的能力感到非常滿意,當然,這要歸功於我們所投資的能力,無論是技術、整體利潤管理還是創新,這些都為我們提供了很多東西,以確保我們能夠繼續擴大利潤並實現盈利。
Obviously we would like that to come with more top line growth, but given what's going on in the environment, we're planning to ensure that we can protect that earnings growth while, we want to be competitive in the marketplace and that's what we're focused on.
顯然,我們希望這能帶來更多的營收成長,但考慮到當前的環境,我們計劃確保我們能夠保護獲利成長,同時,我們希望在市場上保持競爭力,這就是我們關注的重點。
Let's do both of those things and do them very well and that'll be the theme and around M&A it's the same, and we did exactly that. So we've made two important divestitures in the last 18 months that strengthen the financial profile of our company, both supporting better top line growth, better margin expansion, and an earnings profile, and we're always looking for ways to improve our portfolio over time, but job number one is ensuring that our core is healthy.
讓我們把這兩件事都做好,這將成為主題,在併購方面也是一樣的,我們正是這樣做的。因此,我們在過去 18 個月中進行了兩次重要的資產剝離,以增強公司的財務狀況,既支持更好的營收成長,更好的利潤率擴張,也支持更好的獲利狀況,我們一直在尋找方法來改善我們的投資組合,但首要任務是確保我們的核心是健康的。
And I feel very good about all of the investments we've made, the capabilities we've built to be able to control what we can. And if there are opportunities, we certainly have a strong balance sheet, good cash flow, and we would be ready if it was at the right value and, we felt confident in our better ability to navigate that moving forward. But again, job 1, 2 and 3 is ensuring that we can control, we can and deliver strong learning performance, as we get through this period.
我對我們所做的所有投資以及我們為控制所能控制的一切而建立的能力感到非常滿意。如果有機會,我們肯定有強大的資產負債表、良好的現金流,而且如果價值合適,我們就會做好準備,而且我們對自己更好地駕馭未來的能力充滿信心。但同樣,第一、二、三項任務是確保我們能夠控制,能夠提供強大的學習表現,度過這段時期。
Kevin Grundy - Analyst
Kevin Grundy - Analyst
Very good. Thank you.
非常好。謝謝。
Operator
Operator
Olivia Tong, Raymond James.
奧利維亞唐,雷蒙德詹姆斯。
Olivia Tong - Analyst
Olivia Tong - Analyst
Great, thank you. First question is just why you think that destocking was more substantial in household and cleaning, and does it make you more or less concerned that there's some picking and choosing by the retailers even within everyday use categories and what categories to work down more than others? And then a lot of your peers coveted the recent performance with the view that consumers and retailers will eventually have to replenish.
太好了,謝謝。第一個問題是,為什麼您認為家居和清潔用品的去庫存幅度更大?這是否會讓您或多或少擔心零售商在日常用品類別中也會進行挑選,以及哪些類別的去庫存幅度比其他類別更大?許多同業都對近期的表現垂涎三尺,認為消費者和零售商最終將不得不補貨。
But I'm not sure I heard that same sentiment shared by you beyond the ERP related challenges. Obviously, one logically expects the consumer to replenish in the vast majority of these categories eventually, but do you think it takes longer, for your categories?
但我不確定除了 ERP 相關挑戰之外,我是否聽過您有相同的看法。顯然,從邏輯上來說,人們預計消費者最終會對絕大多數類別的商品進行補貨,但您認為對於您的類別來說,這需要更長的時間嗎?
Linda Rendle - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer
Linda Rendle - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer
It's on household, as you said, Olivia, we didn't have broad destocking or inventory adjustments across our portfolio. They're fairly limited to household, and if you look at what's in that set of goods, they're pretty heavy, goods that take up a lot of space, we've got Kingsford, we've got litter, and so I think that's the mentality.
正如奧利維亞所說,這是關於家庭的,我們的投資組合中並沒有進行廣泛的去庫存或庫存調整。它們僅限於家庭使用,如果你看看那組商品裡的東西,它們非常重,佔用大量空間,我們有金斯福德,我們有垃圾,所以我認為這就是我們的心態。
We're in their managing limited space. They're trying to think about how they deal with those goods and again, importantly, they're really not focused on doing this at the detriment of the consumer. They're focused on ensuring consumer in stocks at the shelf and the virtual shelf are available. They're just using more sophisticated technologies in some cases to ensure that they can manage that inventory more closely.
我們處於他們管理的有限空間內。他們正在思考如何處理這些商品,而重要的是,他們並沒有真正專注於以損害消費者利益的方式處理這些商品。他們專注於確保消費者在貨架上和虛擬貨架上都能買到商品。在某些情況下,他們只是使用更複雜的技術來確保能夠更緊密地管理庫存。
And that's why it ended up in household, I think, is given just it's they're heavy goods and they're figuring out ways to ensure that they can maximize, the space. Again, I think this environment's dynamic. Could it happen in other places as they're adjusting, it could?
我認為這就是它最終進入家庭的原因,因為它是重型貨物,他們正在想辦法確保能夠最大限度地利用空間。再次強調,我認為這個環境是動態的。在其他地方進行調整時,這種情況會發生嗎?
Right now we have more inventory, adjustments planned for Q4 in household for the most part, but working with retailers every day to ensure that they have the right level and we don't put consumers, out of stock. And then to your point on replenishment, I think it's a really interesting question, and it's something we're looking very carefully at, is there a bounce back for consumers as they potentially Empty their pantries, they're using what inventory they have at home.
目前,我們有更多的庫存,計劃在第四季度對家庭用品進行大部分調整,但每天都與零售商合作,以確保他們擁有正確的庫存水平,並且不會讓消費者缺貨。然後關於你提到的補貨問題,我認為這是一個非常有趣的問題,也是我們正在仔細研究的問題,當消費者可能清空食品儲藏室並使用家裡的庫存時,他們的消費是否會反彈。
I would just say it's very difficult to tell our purchase cycle is 90 days, we haven't even been through a full purchase cycle when the downturn started in the middle of February. We're seeing some consumers buy smaller sizes. Does that mean they're going to stretch that smaller size to last that entire purchase cycle, or will we see them come back sooner? It's just really too early to tell. I think that'll be something we'll contemplate as we think about fiscal year '26 guidance.
我只想說,很難說我們的購買週期是 90 天,當 2 月中旬經濟衰退開始時,我們甚至還沒有經歷一個完整的購買週期。我們看到一些消費者購買較小尺寸的產品。這是否意味著他們會將較小的尺寸延伸至整個購買週期,還是我們會看到他們更快回歸?現在說還太早。我認為這是我們在考慮 26 財年指導時會考慮的事情。
Certainly in Q4 that we're seeing though is the back half of that purchase cycle. We continue to expect categories to be softer, and it is definitely a question mark, how much inventory will be left in the households for, consumer perspective, and then what will that mean? But I think it would be logical to believe at some point consumers will go back to more normalized inventory levels, etc. It's just the question mark of when Olivia.
當然,我們看到的第四季是購買週期的後半段。我們繼續預期各類別商品的銷售量將會更加疲軟,這絕對是一個問號,從消費者的角度來看,家庭中還剩下多少庫存,那又意味著什麼?但我認為,相信消費者在某個時候會恢復到更正常的庫存水準等,這是合乎邏輯的。奧利維亞,這只是時間問題。
Olivia Tong - Analyst
Olivia Tong - Analyst
Great, thank you.
太好了,謝謝。
Operator
Operator
Chris Carey, Wells Fargo.
富國銀行的克里斯凱裡。
Chris Carey - Analyst
Chris Carey - Analyst
Hi everyone. I want to ask about productivity.
大家好。我想問一下關於生產力的問題。
So you know you're going to have tariffs which are going to be, impacting you next year you're also going to have a bigger impact from ERP you know the question this evening is obviously going to be, does that mean, you won't be able to grow earnings next year potentially I suppose we'll see what you have to say in a few months.
所以你知道你將面臨關稅,這將對你明年產生影響,你也會受到 ERP 更大的影響,你知道今晚的問題顯然是,這是否意味著你明年將無法增加收入,我想我們會在幾個月後看到你的說法。
But, can you just talk about, number one, what you plan to do around tariff mitigation and secondly, does that, involve accelerating productivity programs to cover that and does that leave less to cover other headwinds like ERP or to, driving incremental demand building activities?
但是,您能否談談,第一,您計劃在降低關稅方面採取哪些措施?第二,這是否涉及加速生產力計劃以解決這個問題?這是否會減少用於應對 ERP 等其他不利因素或推動增量需求建立活動的資金?
And related to that, Linda, you had a target around SNAs or percentage of sales around 13%. You're going to be I think about a point.5% higher than that this year. Does this fiscal '26 give you some sort of impetus to accelerate that agenda such that earnings be what they will next year you're exiting into the fiscal '27 with a cleaner base, much more resilient and not resilient, but, with the targets that you have wanted to achieve several years back, any context on, the productivity and also the SNA would be helpful?
與此相關,琳達,你的目標是 SNA 或銷售額百分比約為 13%。我認為今年的增幅將比今年高出 1.5%。26 財年是否會為您帶來某種動力來加速這一議程,以便盈利能夠達到明年的水平,您將以更清潔的基礎進入 27 財年,更具彈性和不具彈性,但是,對於您幾年前想要實現的目標,任何有關生產力和 SNA 的背景信息都會有所幫助嗎?
Linda Rendle - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer
Linda Rendle - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer
Sure, Chris.
當然,克里斯。
Maybe, again, this would be helpful one to step back on, and really just talk about the capabilities that we've built and how we think they apply generally and then we're thinking about applying them in fiscal year '26, we set out to build a stronger and more resilient company and that included investing a significant amount of money in our technology transformation, investing in capabilities, a new operating model.
也許,再一次,這將有助於我們退一步,真正地談論我們已經建立的能力以及我們認為它們如何普遍應用,然後我們考慮在 26 財年應用它們,我們著手建立一個更強大、更有彈性的公司,其中包括在我們的技術轉型上投入大量資金,投資能力,投資新的運營模式。
And those were all designed to ensure that we could expand margin, year after year and of course first job one was return margins to gross margins to the levels that they were pre-pandemic, which we've done, but then continue margin expansion that will allow us to invest in our business, and of course give returns to shareholders.
所有這些都是為了確保我們能夠逐年擴大利潤率,當然,首要任務是將利潤率恢復到疫情前的毛利率水平,我們已經做到了這一點,然後繼續擴大利潤率,這將使我們能夠投資於我們的業務,當然也為股東帶來回報。
And we feel very good about the capabilities that we've built. They have delivered outsized results over the last couple of years. You look at what we were able to deliver, and some of those are just getting started, and we talked about that at CAGNY as you look at the tools that we have around price pack architecture, etc. Those are things that we're just starting to implement and get value from.
我們對已經建立的能力感到非常滿意。過去幾年裡,他們取得了巨大的成果。您可以看看我們能夠提供什麼,其中一些才剛開始,我們在 CAGNY 上討論過這個問題,您可以看看我們在價格包架構等方面的工具。這些都是我們剛開始實施並從中獲得價值的東西。
So when you step back, I feel very confident in our ability to manage this over time. But yes, next year will be more of a challenge with more pressure given what Luc outlined on tariffs. We're looking at about a year run rate of about $100 million worth of impact. Again, our exposure is relatively low, but when you look at the number, the amount of tariffs coming in these areas, it just, it ends up in that number, and we feel good about our ability to manage that $100 million and do that over time.
所以,當你退一步來看時,我對我們長期解決這個問題的能力非常有信心。但是,考慮到盧克在關稅問題上所概述的情況,明年確實將面臨更大的挑戰和壓力。我們預計其年運行率將達到約 1 億美元。再說一次,我們的風險敞口相對較低,但是當你看到這些領域的關稅金額時,它最終就是這個數字,我們對管理這 1 億美元並隨著時間的推移做到這一點的能力感到滿意。
So yes, we've expected more productivity from our company, already over the last couple of years, and we'll continue to put pressure on productivity as we look to fiscal year '26 and beyond with all of those tools that we built and we spoke about. Obviously, we're not committing to what that looks like at this point, but those are the discussions we're having. We talked about, for example, our advertising spending is getting some of the best returns we've ever gotten.
是的,過去幾年來,我們已經期望公司能夠提高生產力,展望 26 財年及以後,我們將繼續利用我們建構和討論的所有工具來提高生產力。顯然,我們目前還不能確定具體細節,但我們正在進行討論。例如,我們談到,我們的廣告支出獲得了有史以來最好的回報。
So what does that mean in this environment? How do we think about advertising spending? It's incredibly important. We're going to continue to invest strongly in our brands, but at what level makes the most amount of sense given the returns that we're getting.
那麼這在這種環境下意味著什麼?我們如何看待廣告支出?這非常重要。我們將繼續大力投資我們的品牌,但考慮到我們所獲得的回報,投資多少才是最合理的。
So those are things that we'll talk about when we talk about fiscal year '26, but we feel good about our ability to manage this over the mid to long term, and have all the right capabilities in the company and. Yes, we will get to SNA over time, and we've said that that wouldn't happen right away.
所以這些都是我們在討論 26 財年時會討論的事情,但我們對自己在中長期管理這些事情的能力感到滿意,並且公司擁有所有正確的能力。是的,隨著時間的推移,我們將實現 SNA,我們已經說過這不會立即發生。
Right now, as you can imagine, we're spending more as we implement that ERP, but once we have that implemented, you'll start to see that SNA over time, come down corresponding to that, and we're using all of the tools to drive that productivity, once we get through that transition.
現在,正如您所想像的,我們在實施 ERP 時花費更多,但是一旦我們實施了 ERP,您就會開始看到 SNA 隨著時間的推移而相應下降,並且一旦我們完成這一轉變,我們就會使用所有工具來推動生產力。
Chris Carey - Analyst
Chris Carey - Analyst
Thanks, Linda.
謝謝,琳達。
Operator
Operator
Steve Powers, Deutsche Bank.
德意志銀行的史蒂夫·鮑爾斯。
Steve Powers - Analyst
Steve Powers - Analyst
Good evening.
晚安.
So I guess, going to the question of trade down, for all the values seeking behavior we've seen over the past several months and quarters, as you noted in your opening remarks, that we really haven't seen trade down in the traditional sense. We've seen channel shifting, we've seen pack size shifting, but pretty much everything but traditional trade down, so. I guess a couple of questions in there, number one, why do you think that is because it's not just you that's observed this is, we've seen it on the outside and other companies have commented as well?
所以我想,談到貿易下降的問題,對於我們在過去幾個月和幾個季度看到的所有價值追求行為,正如您在開場白中提到的那樣,我們實際上還沒有看到傳統意義上的貿易下降。我們已經看到管道轉變,我們已經看到包裝尺寸轉變,但幾乎所有東西,除了傳統的交易,都在下降,所以。我想這裡面有幾個問題,第一,您認為這是為什麼呢?因為不僅僅是您觀察到了這種情況,我們在外面也看到了這種情況,其他公司也發表了評論?
And as you look forward and you think about consumers, potentially, resuming more normal purchase patterns for the replenishment that you talked about earlier. Do you see an increased risk that as consumers do come back and buy, volume on a more kind of normalized cadence that they're trading down as they do that, or is that not something that you see on the horizon?
當你展望未來並考慮消費者時,可能會恢復更正常的補貨購買模式,正如你之前談到的。您是否認為,隨著消費者回來購買,他們的購買量會以更正常的節奏下降,這種風險會增加,或者這不是您目前看到的情況?
Linda Rendle - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer
Linda Rendle - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer
It's particularly in the US and many of the markets that we're in, really consumers value getting what they pay for. They want a product to work, and I think fundamentally in our categories we are essential categories and you see that in essential categories well beyond our portfolio, consumers, outlay $4 or $5 for something, $10 to $15 depending on the category, and they want to make sure it works.
尤其是在美國以及我們所處的許多市場,消費者確實重視物有所值。他們希望產品能夠發揮作用,我認為從根本上來說,在我們的產品類別中,我們屬於必不可少的類別,而且您會發現,在遠遠超出我們產品組合的必不可少的類別中,消費者會為某樣東西花費 4 或 5 美元,根據類別不同,花費 10 到 15 美元,他們希望確保產品能夠發揮作用。
And we've spent all of our history building that trust, continuing to improve our products, ensuring that whatever a consumer buys, it does what we say it's going to, and consumers know that, and they've tried other things before, we have consumers who've tried alternatives and they come back to us because they recognize that it is a difference.
我們一直致力於建立這種信任,不斷改進我們的產品,確保消費者購買的任何產品都能達到我們所說的效果,消費者知道這一點,他們以前也嘗試過其他產品,有些消費者嘗試過其他產品,但他們還是會回到我們這裡,因為他們認識到我們的產品與眾不同。
So I think broadly essentials hold up because companies have done the right thing. They've invested to ensure those products continue to be a superior value to consumers in all ways, and you know that superior value, Steve, is much more important than just whatever the juice or the stuff in the container is, it's how the container works, it's how it fits in their pantry, it's all of those design elements. The scent that they experience, the feel, and we've worked really hard on that, and we'll continue to prioritize it. It's why we talk about it all the time that's what matters to the consumer.
因此我認為,總體來說,基本原則能夠成立,因為公司做了正確的事。他們進行了投資,以確保這些產品在各個方面繼續為消費者帶來卓越的價值,而且你知道,史蒂夫,卓越的價值不僅僅是容器中的果汁或東西是什麼,而是容器如何工作,它如何適應他們的食品儲藏室,它是所有這些設計元素。他們體驗到的氣味、感覺,我們為此付出了很大的努力,我們將繼續優先考慮這一點。這就是我們一直在談論它的原因,因為它對消費者來說很重要。
So I think that's what we're seeing right now is consumers know that, and they're doing everything, despite all the changes they're having to make to their external wallet, they're doing everything they can to continue to have that experience, even if that means buying a smaller size or changing channels, because they know what they're getting for their money. They're very savvy.
所以我認為我們現在看到的是消費者知道這一點,並且他們正在盡一切努力,儘管他們必須對他們的外部錢包做出所有改變,但他們仍在盡一切努力繼續擁有這種體驗,即使這意味著購買更小尺寸的產品或更換渠道,因為他們知道他們花錢買到了什麼。他們非常精明。
As we look ahead, I would expect those value-seeking behaviors to continue. I think people will continue to do the channel shift. I think they'll continue to think about what sizes they buy. I think they're going to be very savvy about how they think about inventory at home, and I think they've been taught that over the last five years, consumers going through COVID and inflation have had to be very savvy.
展望未來,我預期這些追求價值的行為將會持續下去。我認為人們將繼續進行通路轉變。我認為他們會繼續考慮購買什麼尺寸。我認為他們會非常精明地考慮國內庫存,而且我認為他們已經了解到,在過去五年中,經歷 COVID 和通貨膨脹的消費者必須非常精明。
And I think you're seeing what they learned in those last few years coming to fruition right now as they're dealing with what's going on. I think the question mark for us is and for everybody is to what degree does this volatility continue? Does it get worse for consumers, and they have to make additional trade-offs and choices?
我認為,你會看到他們在過去幾年中所學到的東西在他們處理正在發生的事情時正在結出果實。我認為我們以及每個人的疑問是,這種波動會持續到什麼程度?對於消費者來說,情況是否會變得更糟,他們是否必須做出額外的權衡和選擇?
Does that mean they have to take a smaller size and extend, keep the purchase cycle the same and just use it less frequently? Does that put additional pressure to see them do what you would call traditional trade down, trade to private label? Again, we see none of those signs right now, but it's something we're watching very closely because it's just so uncertain and volatile out there.
這是否意味著他們必須採用更小的尺寸並延長使用壽命,保持相同的購買週期並降低使用頻率?這是否會給他們帶來額外的壓力,迫使他們採取所謂的傳統貿易方式,轉向自有品牌貿易?再說一次,我們現在沒有看到任何這些跡象,但我們正在密切關注,因為外面的情況非常不確定和不穩定。
And you can imagine a scenario where consumers are having to make much greater trade-offs than they are today, and what would that mean? But for us, again, controlling what we can, it's continuing to invest in our brands, continuing to ensure that we have the right messaging, we have the right promotion.
你可以想像這樣的場景:消費者必須做出比現在更大的權衡,這又意味著什麼?但對我們來說,再次強調,我們要控制我們能控制的,就是繼續投資我們的品牌,繼續確保我們擁有正確的訊息,擁有正確的推廣。
That we continue to improve our products, we continue to talk to consumers about the improvements that we're making in our products, ensuring that we're all retailers, and that we offer them a great value wherever they shop, and we feel very confident in our abilities, our brand's abilities to navigate this.
我們將繼續改進我們的產品,我們將繼續與消費者討論我們在產品方面所做的改進,確保我們都是零售商,無論他們在哪裡購物,我們都能為他們提供巨大的價值,我們對我們的能力、我們的品牌應對這一問題的能力非常有信心。
I think. It's just going to be what that shape looks like as consumers respond and, unfortunately, this is one where I don't have a crystal ball. I can't tell you what's going to happen next in the macroeconomic, but I do feel very confident in our ability to navigate it and that our categories will hold up better than others, given that we plant essentials.
我認為。它的形狀將取決於消費者的反應,不幸的是,我沒有水晶球可以預測這一點。我無法告訴你宏觀經濟接下來會發生什麼,但我對我們的駕馭能力非常有信心,而且考慮到我們種植必需品,我們的類別將比其他類別表現得更好。
Steve Powers - Analyst
Steve Powers - Analyst
Thank you very much. Appreciate it.
非常感謝。非常感謝。
Operator
Operator
This concludes the question-and-answer session. Ms. Rendle, I would now like to turn the program back to you.
問答環節到此結束。倫德爾女士,現在我想把節目單交還給您。
Linda Rendle - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer
Linda Rendle - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer
Thank you, Paul.
謝謝你,保羅。
As we close today's call, I'd like to step back and reflect on the number of macroeconomic environments we've weathered as a company over our 112 years.
在今天的電話會議結束之際,我想回顧一下我們公司 112 年來所經歷的宏觀經濟環境。
From inflationary to recessionary environments, we have navigated them well with strong execution and our portfolio of trusted brands. For sure, we are seeing temporary category impacts given the very dynamic environment today. But history tells us that our essential categories are stable and resilient over the long run.
從通貨膨脹到衰退的環境,我們憑藉著強大的執行力和值得信賴的品牌組合順利度過了難關。可以肯定的是,鑑於當今非常動態的環境,我們看到了暫時的類別影響。但歷史告訴我們,從長遠來看,我們的基本類別是穩定且有彈性的。
While it's challenging to predict just how long this period will be. We're confident in our ability to navigate this environment given our track record coupled with our enduring strategy. We have fundamentally strengthened our value creation model, including how we create the fuel necessary to drive growth. We're focused on delivering superior value through brands consumers love.
儘管很難預測這個時期會持續多久。鑑於我們過去的業績記錄和持久的策略,我們對自己應對這種環境的能力充滿信心。我們從根本上加強了我們的價值創造模式,包括如何創造推動成長所需的燃料。我們致力於透過消費者喜愛的品牌提供卓越的價值。
We're creating a consumer obsessed, faster and leaner organization by reimagining how we work in advancing our digital capabilities. We have taken steps to evolve our portfolio to reduce volatility and drive more profitable long-term growth.
我們正在透過重新構想如何提升我們的數位化能力來創造一個以消費者為中心、更快速、更精簡的組織。我們已採取措施改進我們的投資組合,以降低波動性並推動更有利可圖的長期成長。
This strategy has served us well, as we transform Clorox into a stronger company poised to deliver more consistent profitable growth and enhance long-term shareholder value. Very importantly, we remain laser focused on delivering in both the short and long term.
這項策略對我們起到了很好的作用,我們將高樂氏轉變為更強大的公司,準備實現更持續的獲利成長並提高長期股東價值。非常重要的是,我們將繼續專注於短期和長期目標的實現。
Thank you, everyone. We look forward to updating you on our continued progress on our next call. Take care.
謝謝大家。我們期待在下次電話會議上向您通報我們的持續進展。小心。
Operator
Operator
This concludes today's conference call. Thank you for attending.
今天的電話會議到此結束。謝謝您的出席。