高樂氏 (CLX) 2023 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Good day, ladies and gentlemen, and welcome to The Clorox Company Fourth Quarter Fiscal Year 2023 Earnings Release Conference Call. (Operator Instructions) As a reminder, this call is being recorded. I would now like to introduce your host for today's call, Ms. Lisah Burhan, Vice President of Investor Relations for The Clorox Company. Ms. Burhan, you may begin your conference.

女士們、先生們，美好的一天，歡迎參加 Clorox 公司 2023 財年第四季度收益發布電話會議。 （操作員說明）謹此提醒，此通話正在錄音。現在我想介紹今天電話會議的主持人 Lisah Burhan 女士，她是 Clorox 公司投資者關係副總裁。布爾漢女士，您可以開始會議了。

Thanks, Ross. Good afternoon, and thank you for joining us. On the call with me today are Linda Rendle, our CEO; and Kevin Jacobsen, our CFO. I hope everyone has had a chance to review our earnings release and prepared remarks, both of which are available on our website. In just a moment, Linda will share a few opening comments, and then we'll take your questions.

謝謝，羅斯。下午好，感謝您加入我們。今天與我通話的是我們的首席執行官琳達·倫德爾 (Linda Rendle)；和我們的首席財務官凱文雅各布森。我希望每個人都有機會查看我們的收益發布和準備好的評論，這兩者都可以在我們的網站上找到。稍後，琳達將發表一些開場評論，然後我們將回答您的問題。

During this call, we may make forward-looking statements, including about our fiscal 2024 outlook. These statements are based on management's current expectations but may differ from actual results or outcomes. In addition, we may refer to certain non-GAAP financial measures. Please refer to the forward-looking statements section which identifies various factors that could affect such forward-looking statements, which have been filed with the SEC. In addition, please refer to the non-GAAP financial information section of our earnings release and the supplemental financial schedules in the Investor Relations section of our website for a reconciliation of non-GAAP financial measures to the most directly comparable GAAP measures. Now I'll turn it over to Linda.

在本次電話會議中，我們可能會做出前瞻性聲明，包括我們的 2024 財年展望。這些陳述基於管理層當前的預期，但可能與實際結果或成果不同。此外，我們可能會參考某些非公認會計準則財務指標。請參閱前瞻性陳述部分，其中確定了可能影響此類前瞻性陳述的各種因素，這些因素已提交給美國證券交易委員會。此外，請參閱我們收益發布的非 GAAP 財務信息部分以及我們網站投資者關係部分的補充財務明細表，以了解非 GAAP 財務指標與最直接可比的 GAAP 指標的對賬情況。現在我把它交給琳達。

Hello, everyone, and thank you for joining us. We closed out fiscal year 2023 with strong results, underscoring the significant progress we've made against our strategic priorities. Over the course of the year, we've been relentlessly focused on driving top line growth and rebuilding margins in a challenging operating environment while continuing to invest in the long-term health of our brands, categories and capabilities. Thanks to our team's strong execution across a comprehensive set of actions, we delivered on these commitments.

大家好，感謝您加入我們。我們以強勁的業績結束了 2023 財年，突顯了我們在戰略重點方面取得的重大進展。在這一年裡，我們一直致力於在充滿挑戰的運營環境中推動營收增長和重建利潤，同時繼續投資於我們品牌、品類和能力的長期健康發展。由於我們的團隊在一系列全面行動中的強大執行力，我們兌現了這些承諾。

For fiscal year 2023, we generated net sales growth of 4%, within our long-term target; gross margin expansion of 360 basis points; and adjusted EPS growth of 24%. Our performance reflects our commitment to driving operational excellence and margin improvement supported by the strength and resilience of our portfolio and the relevance of our IGNITE strategy. In addition to delivering results over the short term, we made progress on our IGNITE strategy. The investments we're making to deliver consumer-inspired innovation, strengthen the superior value of our brands, advance our digital transformation and streamline our operating model are positioning us to drive long-term profitable growth.

2023 財年，我們的淨銷售額增長了 4%，符合我們的長期目標；毛利率擴大360個基點；調整後每股收益增長 24%。我們的業績體現了我們對推動卓越運營和利潤率提高的承諾，這得益於我們投資組合的實力和彈性以及 IGNITE 戰略的相關性。除了在短期內取得成果外，我們還在 IGNITE 戰略上取得了進展。我們為提供受消費者啟發的創新、增強品牌的卓越價值、推進數字化轉型和簡化運營模式而進行的投資，使我們能夠推動長期盈利增長。

As we look ahead to fiscal year 2024, we are clear on our priorities. While we expect the environment to remain difficult with macroeconomic uncertainty persisting, we are committed to building on our progress and have plans to enhance our value superiority at a time when it matters most to consumers. We believe these actions will enable us to continue to drive top line growth and rebuild margins back to pre-pandemic levels and put us in a position to grow share and household penetration over the long term. I'm confident we're taking the appropriate actions to build a stronger, more resilient company positioned to win in the marketplace, deliver on our operational and financial goals and create long-term value for stakeholders.

展望 2024 財年，我們明確了我們的優先事項。儘管我們預計由於宏觀經濟不確定性持續存在，環境仍將困難，但我們致力於在進步的基礎上再接再厲，併計劃在對消費者最重要的時候增強我們的價值優勢。我們相信，這些行動將使我們能夠繼續推動營收增長，並將利潤率重建至大流行前的水平，並使我們能夠長期提高份額和家庭滲透率。我相信我們正在採取適當的行動來建立一家更強大、更有彈性的公司，從而贏得市場，實現我們的運營和財務目標，並為利益相關者創造長期價值。

With that, Kevin and I will take your questions.

接下來，凱文和我將回答你的問題。

(Operator Instructions) And our first question comes from Peter Grom from UBS.

（操作員說明）我們的第一個問題來自瑞銀集團的 Peter Grom。

So I wanted to ask 2 related questions on the top line. Maybe first, I know you called out stronger shipments in cleaning and some early shipments for back-to-school. But the minus 2% volume performance was certainly stronger than what we can see in the tracked data. Was that largely due to the shipment timing that you mentioned? Or is there just strength elsewhere that's not being captured by the data? And then just second on the organic sales guidance of 2% to 4%. You mentioned a mild U.S. recession in the back half. You provided some color on phasing starting with mid-single-digit growth in 1Q. I just would be curious to get your perspective on the balance of pricing versus volume in that outlook specifically as we move through the year. And do you expect volume growth at some point in the back half?

所以我想在第一行問兩個相關的問題。也許首先，我知道您呼籲在清潔方面加強發貨，並為返校提前發貨。但負 2% 的成交量表現肯定比我們在跟踪數據中看到的要強。這主要是由於您提到的發貨時間嗎？或者是否有其他地方的力量沒有被數據捕獲？然後是 2% 到 4% 的有機銷售指導。您提到美國下半年出現溫和衰退。您提供了一些關於從第一季度中個位數增長開始的階段性的信息。我只是很想知道您對這一展望中定價與銷量平衡的看法，特別是在我們今年的展望中。您預計下半年銷量會出現增長嗎？

Peter, I'll start with your first question, and then I'll hand it over to Kevin. So on Q4 over-delivery versus what we had expected, as we noted, we did see stronger consumption across the board across our categories in aggregate. And that's a result of 2 things mainly. The first being elasticities continue to be better than they have been historically. And that's an aggregate comment. We see differences by category, but in aggregate, they're favorable. And trade promo has been normalizing at a slower pace than we'd expect, and we'll continue to see that normalize as we go through fiscal year '24. But for Q4, it wasn't to the degree that we thought it would be. So that's the first bucket, stronger consumption.

彼得，我將從你的第一個問題開始，然後將其交給凱文。因此，正如我們所指出的，第四季度的交付量超出了我們的預期，我們確實看到了所有類別的總體消費強勁。這主要是由兩件事造成的。首先是彈性繼續好於歷史水平。這是一個綜合評論。我們看到了不同類別的差異，但總的來說，它們是有利的。貿易促銷正常化的速度比我們預期的要慢，隨著我們進入第 24 財年，我們將繼續看到這種正常化。但對於第四季度來說，情況並沒有達到我們想像的程度。所以這是第一個桶，消費更強勁。

The second is better operational performance by our team, and that's just a broad statement across the supply chain. We were able to make some supply that we didn't think we would have, our shipments to retailers were stronger than we had expected. Just a lot of the things operationally came together with great execution and supported that growth. And then finally, in Kingsford, we spoke about in Q3, we did not perform to our expectations in Q3. We made significant adjustments to the plan, including working with retailers on category growth plans centered in having the right merchandising. And those performed significantly better than we had expected, which was great to see the consumer reacted very favorably and retailers executed with excellence. And those are really the big 3 main buckets between what we saw and what we expected.

第二是我們團隊更好的運營績效，這只是整個供應鏈的一個廣泛的陳述。我們能夠提供一些我們認為不會有的供應，我們向零售商的發貨量比我們預期的要強。很多事情在運營上都與出色的執行力結合在一起，並支持了這種增長。最後，在金斯福德，我們在第三季度談到，我們在第三季度的表現沒有達到我們的預期。我們對該計劃進行了重大調整，包括與零售商合作制定以正確的商品銷售為中心的品類增長計劃。這些產品的表現明顯好於我們的預期，很高興看到消費者反應非常積極，零售商表現出色。這些確實是我們所看到的和我們所期望的之間的三大主要部分。

And Peter, I can talk about the -- our plans for fiscal year '24 as it relates to sales. And as you saw, we're projecting 2% to 4% for the year. If you think about the front half and the back half, our expectations are sales will be closer to mid-single digits in the front half and then low single digits in the back half. And that phasing from front half to back half, I'd call out a few items. The first is, as you saw in our prepared remarks, we're projecting a mild recession in the back half of our fiscal year, which would be the front half of calendar year '24. So we think that will put a little bit of pressure on consumers and our categories, and we reflected that in our outlook. The other item to be aware of is we are now going to lap the 4 rounds of pricing we've taken when we get to the middle of the year. So that fourth price increase we took last December, we will lap that when we get halfway through the year. So the second half of the year, we'll now have lapped all the pricing we've taken.

Peter，我可以談談我們 24 財年與銷售相關的計劃。正如您所見，我們預計今年增長 2% 至 4%。如果您考慮前半部分和後半部分，我們的預期是前半部分的銷售額將接近中個位數，然後是後半部分的低個位數。從前半部分到後半部分，我會指出一些項目。首先，正如您在我們準備好的發言中看到的那樣，我們預計本財年後半段（即 24 日曆年前半段）將出現溫和衰退。因此，我們認為這會給消費者和我們的品類帶來一些壓力，我們在展望中反映了這一點。另一件需要注意的事情是，我們現在將在年中時進行四輪定價。因此，去年 12 月我們進行的第四次提價，我們將在今年過半時完成。因此，到今年下半年，我們將完成所有已採取的定價。

So as a result of that, what we expect to see is you'll see improving volume trends as we move through the year. And you'll see the benefit of price mix larger in the front half and then really start to tail off in the back half. And so as we get that low single-digit growth, it will be a combination of some price mix because we're still doing a little bit of pricing internationally, improving volume trends, but recognizing we still think it's going to be a difficult economic environment for consumers.

因此，我們期望看到的是，隨著一年的推移，您將看到銷量趨勢的改善。您會看到價格組合的好處在前半部分更大，然後在後半部分真正開始減少。因此，當我們實現低個位數增長時，這將是一些價格組合的組合，因為我們仍在國際上進行一些定價，改善銷量趨勢，但認識到我們仍然認為這將是一個困難的經濟增長消費者的環境。

And our next question comes from Anna Lizzul from Bank of America.

我們的下一個問題來自美國銀行的 Anna Lizzul。

In your fiscal '24 guidance, you are expecting flat to 2% net sales growth. This is a little bit below your long-term algorithm from your IGNITE strategy of that 3% to 5% annual sales growth. I was wondering if you can comment on when you expect to return to the 3% to 5% net sales growth on a more normalized basis. And in addition, what do you see as the drivers of really achieving that sales growth longer term?

在 24 財年指導中，您預計淨銷售額增長將持平至 2%。這比您的 IGNITE 戰略中的長期算法（年銷售額增長 3% 到 5%）略低一些。我想知道您是否可以評論一下您預計何時會在更正常的基礎上恢復到 3% 至 5% 的淨銷售額增長。此外，您認為真正實現長期銷售增長的驅動因素是什麼？

Yes, 2% to 4% organic sales growth and 0% to 2% from a reported is what we're expecting now, and that is slightly below what we want from a long-term perspective. But just to put that in perspective, of course, if you look at our 4-year CAGR and our strategy period, we did deliver in the midpoint of that range at 4% and again 4% this year. This year coming up is kind of a tale of 2 halves is the way I talk about it, and we expect stronger growth in the front half as we continue to lap the 2 price increases that we have. And then in the back half, we expect it to get tougher for consumers. And right now, our expectation is a mild recession. So when you put those things together, I think, in aggregate, we feel good about the top line that we've committed to.

是的，我們現在的預期是 2% 到 4% 的有機銷售增長和 0% 到 2% 的報告增長，從長期角度來看，這略低於我們想要的水平。但從長遠來看，當然，如果你看看我們的 4 年復合年增長率和我們的戰略期，我們確實實現了 4% 的中間值，今年又實現了 4%。我談論的方式是，今年即將到來的是一個兩半的故事，隨著我們繼續經歷兩次價格上漲，我們預計上半年會有更強勁的增長。然後在後半段，我們預計消費者的處境會變得更加艱難。目前，我們的預期是溫和衰退。因此，當你把這些事情放在一起時，我認為，總的來說，我們對我們所承諾的營收感到滿意。

In addition, that includes about one point of a headwind from our vitamins, minerals and supplements business. As we spoke about over the last couple of calls, we have reengineered that plan to focus more on profitability, and we've done that at a trade-off from a top line perspective. So that does include a one point headwind. And over time, we would expect that, that wouldn't be the case and that, that would help us return to getting within that 3% to 5%.

此外，這還包括我們的維生素、礦物質和補充劑業務帶來的約一分阻力。正如我們在過去幾次電話會議中談到的那樣，我們重新設計了該計劃，以更多地關注盈利能力，並且我們從營收角度進行了權衡。所以這確實包括一點逆風。隨著時間的推移，我們預計情況不會如此，這將幫助我們回到 3% 到 5% 的範圍內。

The way that I would think about this as we march through the year, we are expecting, again, lapping 2 price increases. We are expecting our elasticities to be more normalized as we go through the course of the year. We're expecting trade promotion to normalize as well, and then we're expecting a mild recession in the back half. Those are all of our assumptions informing that growth. And if those come true, we feel this plan is a very balanced plan. But we'll be watching really carefully as we move through the year if any one of those assumptions change and we need to adjust our plan that could impact both on the high end and the lower end of us delivering against what we put out there from an outlook perspective.

在今年的進展中，我會考慮這個問題，我們預計價格將再次上漲兩次。我們預計，隨著這一年的過去，我們的彈性將更加正常化。我們預計貿易促進也會正常化，然後我們預計下半年會出現溫和的衰退。這些是我們對增長的所有假設。如果這些都能實現，我們認為這個計劃是一個非常平衡的計劃。但是，在這一年中，我們將非常仔細地觀察這些假設中的任何一個是否發生變化，並且我們需要調整我們的計劃，這可能會影響我們的高端和低端交付，而不是我們所提出的目標一個展望的觀點。

And just wanted to ask a follow-up just on marketing spend versus promotional levels. You've mentioned that advertising as a percent of sales, you intend to spend about 11% in fiscal '24 versus about 10% in fiscal '23. Do you feel this is the right level of investment given the ramp in marketing spend versus some peers in the space? And also just in terms of the balance of advertising spend versus promotional levels in fiscal '24, it does sound like you're ramping back up on promotional levels? And is this an intention to get back to pre-COVID levels of promotion as well?

只是想詢問有關營銷支出與促銷水平的後續情況。您提到廣告佔銷售額的百分比，您打算在 24 財年支出約 11%，而在 23 財年支出約 10%。考慮到營銷支出相對於該領域一些同行的增長，您認為這是正確的投資水平嗎？而且就 24 財年廣告支出與促銷水平的平衡而言，聽起來您確實正在重新提高促銷水平？這是否也是為了恢復到疫情前的促銷水平？

Sure. So on the marketing spend, as you rightly noted, we've spent about 10% of sales on advertising and sales promotion over our history. And there's times we've spent more than that. This year, we're targeting 11%, and we think that's a prudent investment given the pressure the consumer is going to be under from a macroeconomic perspective, the fact that we are coming off of 4 rounds of pricing -- significant price increase, obviously, cost justified. But we want to continue to support the consumer as they transition through that. And so we think 11% is the right number.

當然。因此，就營銷支出而言，正如您正確指出的那樣，在我們的歷史上，我們將大約 10% 的銷售額用於廣告和促銷。有時我們花的錢還不止這些。今年，我們的目標是 11%，考慮到消費者從宏觀經濟角度將面臨的壓力，我們認為這是一項謹慎的投資，事實上我們即將結束 4 輪定價——大幅提價，顯然，成本是合理的。但我們希望繼續為消費者提供支持，幫助他們度過這一時期。所以我們認為 11% 是正確的數字。

And you have 2 data points that give us confidence that 11% is the right number. During the pandemic, we took our advertising spending up even at a time when we couldn't fully supply. That increase in advertising led to stronger superiority ratings for our brands, and that gave us the confidence to take the 4 rounds of pricing that we took. So we think, again, in a time where consumers are pressured and stressed, investing that additional point of advertising makes a lot of sense.

您有 2 個數據點讓我們確信 11% 是正確的數字。疫情期間，我們在無法完全供應的情況下還是增加了廣告支出。廣告的增加使我們的品牌獲得了更強的優勢評級，這讓我們有信心進行四輪定價。因此，我們再次認為，在消費者面臨壓力和壓力的時代，投入額外的廣告點是很有意義的。

And then the second data point I would give you is that we've been on a journey to get to know 100 million consumers in the U.S., and that allows us to personalize to them. This was part of our IGNITE strategy. We've nearly met that goal, and that has led to a return on investment in our advertising being the highest it ever was. We reached a high point this year. So we feel really good about putting that extra point in because we know what we're going to get from a returns perspective in addition to supporting the superiority of our brands. And again, we'll continue to evaluate this moving forward. It doesn't mean it will necessarily be 11% the year after. This is really a roll up of what we think our general managers need to best support our brands during this time.

我要提供的第二個數據點是，我們一直在了解美國 1 億消費者，這使我們能夠為他們提供個性化服務。這是我們 IGNITE 戰略的一部分。我們幾乎已經實現了這一目標，這使得我們的廣告投資回報率達到了歷史最高水平。今年我們達到了最高點。因此，我們對投入這一額外點感到非常高興，因為我們知道除了支持我們品牌的優勢之外，從回報的角度來看我們還將獲得什麼。再次，我們將繼續評估這一進展。這並不意味著後年就一定是11%。這實際上是我們認為總經理在此期間為我們的品牌提供最佳支持所需的一切的匯總。

And then from a promotion perspective, promotions continue to be lower than they were pre-pandemic but are ramping up. Our expectation is throughout the course of the year, we'll return to more normalized promotions, so similar to what we were pre-pandemic. And we assume, to be fair, though, this year that it would ramp up faster and it hasn't. But based on what we're seeing in the data, we think that's a fair assumption. And again, we wouldn't be targeting going beyond what we were pre-pandemic, but just returning to those levels that we had.

然後從促銷角度來看，促銷活動繼續低於大流行前，但正在增加。我們的期望是，在這一年中，我們將恢復更加正常化的促銷活動，與大流行前的情況非常相似。不過，公平地說，我們認為今年的增長速度會更快，但事實並非如此。但根據我們在數據中看到的情況，我們認為這是一個合理的假設。再說一次，我們的目標不會超出大流行前的水平，而只是恢復到我們的水平。

And for our categories, that still means the vast majority of our sales are done off the shelf with no price reduction. Most of this is good quality merchandising, targeting the consumer around key pulse points, et cetera. So we think those in combination are the right level of spend given the consumer dynamics, given what we see from a return perspective and what we think is needed to grow categories and to grow share over the long term.

對於我們的品類來說，這仍然意味著我們的絕大多數銷售都是現成的，沒有降價。其中大部分是高質量的營銷，圍繞關鍵脈搏點等瞄準消費者。因此，考慮到消費者的動態、我們從回報的角度看到的情況以及我們認為增長類別和長期增加份額所需的內容，我們認為這些組合是正確的支出水平。

And our next question comes from Dara Mohsenian from Morgan Stanley.

我們的下一個問題來自摩根士丹利的 Dara Mohsenian。

So I just wanted to touch on the fiscal '24 guidance. You're assuming gross margins come in well below the fiscal Q4 level and the level in the back half of the year. I know you've got $200 million of higher costs you mentioned in prepared remarks. First, can you just give us some more details specifically on that bucket and what's driving cost increases? And then b, just as you think about it conceptually the lack of sequential progress versus the back half of the year even though, obviously, it's up year-over-year for the full year, just I'm wondering how that fits in with your goal to eventually move back towards those pre-COVID gross margin levels and why not more progress this year, again, specifically relative to that back half?

所以我只想談談 24 財年指導。您假設毛利率遠低於第四季度和今年下半年的水平。我知道您在準備好的發言中提到了 2 億美元的更高成本。首先，您能否向我們提供有關該桶的更多詳細信息以及推動成本增加的原因是什麼？然後 b，正如您從概念上思考的那樣，與下半年相比缺乏連續進展，儘管很明顯，全年同比增長，只是我想知道這與您的目標是最終回到新冠疫情前的毛利率水平，為什麼今年不再取得更大的進展，特別是相對於後半部分？

Yes. Happy to take those questions, Dara. Maybe let me start with cost inflation and what we're projecting for this year. And maybe if I step back and just think a little longer term in terms of what we've been dealing with, and you folks know, fiscal year '22, a really difficult year given the extreme levels of cost inflation, about $800 million. Last year, we experienced about $400 million of cost inflation. And this year, we're projecting about $200 million. So sequentially getting better. It's moderating, but we're still expecting to operate in a higher cost environment.

是的。達拉，很高興回答這些問題。也許讓我從成本通脹和我們今年的預測開始。也許如果我退後一步，稍微長遠地考慮一下我們一直在處理的問題，你們知道，22 財年是一個非常困難的一年，考慮到成本通脹的極端水平，大約 8 億美元。去年，我們經歷了約 4 億美元的成本膨脹。今年，我們預計投入約 2 億美元。就這樣逐漸好起來。它正在放緩，但我們仍然期望在更高的成本環境中運營。

As we look at that $200 million worth of supply chain inflation, there's really 2 areas we're predominantly seeing those cost increases coming through. I would say about 1/3 of that we're projecting will hit in commodities. There's a number of items we're still seeing inflating, particularly chemicals, substrate, corrugate and linerboard. We're still looking at rising costs year-over-year. Resin, for us, we're looking at a fairly neutral cost. It came down last year, and we're assuming it would be relatively flat this year. And then we are seeing some cost declines in some of our ag products and diesel. But overall, we think that bucket will be modestly inflationary. And then the other item we're looking at really [hits] particularly manufacturing and warehousing primarily driven by labor that we continue to expect to be operating in an inflationary environment. And so those are the primary buckets where we expect to see the $200 million.

當我們看到價值 2 億美元的供應鏈通貨膨脹時，我們主要看到兩個領域的成本增加。我想說，我們預測的大約 1/3 將影響大宗商品。我們仍然看到許多商品價格上漲，特別是化學品、基材、瓦楞紙和掛麵紙板。我們仍在考慮成本逐年上升的情況。對於我們來說，樹脂的成本相當中性。去年有所下降，我們假設今年會相對持平。然後我們看到我們的一些農業產品和柴油的成本有所下降。但總體而言，我們認為這一桶將出現適度的通脹。然後，我們正在關注的另一個項目確實受到了影響，特別是主要由勞動力驅動的製造業和倉儲業，我們仍然預計這些行業將在通脹環境中運營。因此，這些是我們預計 2 億美元的主要領域。

Now on the gross margin goals this year and the phasing of those, as you said, Dara, we're expecting to continue to make progress rebuilding gross margin. And you folks know, we've talked about this quite a bit, we're committed getting back to those pre-pandemic levels of margin. I think we made good progress last year. We improved about 360 basis points. We expect to build on this year, expecting to get another 150 to 175 basis points of improvement. And so by the end of this year, assuming we deliver this plan, we will have recovered a little over 500 basis points of that $800 million we lost.

現在，關於今年的毛利率目標以及這些目標的分階段，正如您所說，達拉，我們預計將繼續在重建毛利率方面取得進展。你們知道，我們已經討論過很多次了，我們致力於恢復到大流行前的利潤水平。我認為我們去年取得了良好的進展。我們提高了約 360 個基點。我們預計今年將再接再厲，再提高 150 至 175 個基點。因此，到今年年底，假設我們實現了這一計劃，我們將收回 8 億美元損失的 500 多個基點。

Now in terms of phasing, I'd say, Dara, typically, Clorox has some seasonality in terms of our margins. Typically, our fourth quarter is our highest margin, and that's particularly because we do a disproportionate amount of our Kingsford business in the fourth quarter. I think as you folks know, we [sold about] 50% at Kingsford in the fourth quarter, and it's a very profitable business. So that tends to generate our highest margin. And then typically, Q2 is our lowest margin point, one, because we do very little Kingsford as well as we do some -- a lot of gift packing on our Burt's business, which is a great activity to drive awareness and trial, but it comes at a lower margin.

現在就分階段而言，我想說，達拉，通常情況下，高樂氏在我們的利潤方面有一些季節性。通常情況下，我們的第四季度是我們最高的利潤率，這尤其是因為我們第四季度的金斯福德業務量不成比例。我想你們都知道，第四季度我們在 Kingsford 銷售了大約 50%，這是一項非常有利可圖的業務。因此，這往往會產生我們最高的利潤。通常情況下，第二季度是我們的最低利潤點，一，因為我們在金斯福德做得很少，但我們在伯特的業務上做了很多禮品包裝，這是一項提高意識和試用的偉大活動，但它利潤率較低。

So you should normally think about our business, once we've gotten past the normalization and the pricing and all the disruptions, historically, Q2 is a low point and then Q4s are high. So I think it's better to look on a year-over-year basis versus sequentially quarter-by-quarter. Now in Q1, I expect we'll make good solid progress. Now not to the same degree in Q4, 560 basis points, because we now lap that third round of pricing starting now. And so you should expect it to step down the benefit of pricing. But I expect to have a good solid Q1, and then what I expect to do is continue to advance margins on a year-over-year basis. And as we said, we're targeting to get to about 41% this year.

因此，您通常應該考慮我們的業務，一旦我們克服了正常化、定價和所有乾擾，從歷史上看，第二季度是低點，然後第四季度是高點。因此，我認為最好是逐年比較，而不是逐季度比較。現在在第一季度，我預計我們將取得良好的紮實進展。現在第四季度的幅度不再是 560 個基點，因為我們現在開始進行第三輪定價。所以你應該期望它會降低定價的好處。但我預計第一季度會有一個良好的穩定表現，然後我期望做的是繼續同比提高利潤率。正如我們所說，我們今年的目標是達到 41% 左右。

Okay. And are you assuming any incremental pricing next fiscal year? I'm assuming you're not. Is that more just a pause after all the pricing you've taken and maybe you can return later on? And then if I'm not overstaying my welcome, Linda, can you just comment on household penetration and your performance this fiscal year particularly in light of the comments around the ROI on marketing being an all-time high and the personalization reaching nearly 100 million consumers?

好的。您是否假設下一財年會有增量定價？我假設你不是。在您完成所有定價之後，這是否只是一個暫停，也許您可​​以稍後再回來？ Linda，如果我沒有過分歡迎的話，您能否評論一下本財年的家庭滲透率和業績，特別是考慮到營銷投資回報率創歷史新高且個性化達到近 1 億的評論消費者？

Yes. Dara, I can start with our pricing assumptions. In the outlook, we have not assumed any broad-based pricing in the U.S. similar to the first 4 rounds we've taken. Now we will continue to price internationally because of the higher inflation rates we're experiencing there, and we'll also continue to focus on net revenue management activities. But in terms of broad-based pricing, we don't have anything assumed in the U.S. this year.

是的。達拉，我可以從我們的定價假設開始。在展望中，我們沒有假設美國會出現任何類似於我們採取的前 4 輪定價的廣泛定價。現在，由於我們在那裡經歷了較高的通貨膨脹率，我們將繼續在國際上定價，並且我們還將繼續關注淨收入管理活動。但就廣泛的定價而言，我們今年在美國沒有任何假設。

And then your question on household penetration. When we talked about this a bit over the last few quarters, household penetration along with volume were things that we knew were going to take a hit as we took the level of pricing we have over the last 18 months. And we've certainly seen that. And this is a category comment, not just a Clorox brand comment, but what we tend to see is people having short-term reactions from a behavior perspective. And they adjust as they see the initial shock of pricing. And certainly, they've seen 4 rounds they've had to adjust to.

然後是關於家庭滲透率的問題。當我們在過去幾個季度討論這個問題時，我們知道家庭滲透率和銷量將會受到影響，因為我們考慮了過去 18 個月的定價水平。我們當然已經看到了這一點。這是一個類別評論，而不僅僅是高樂氏品牌評論，但我們傾向於看到的是人們從行為角度產生的短期反應。當他們看到定價的最初衝擊時，他們就會進行調整。當然，他們已經經歷了四輪比賽，他們必須適應。

So typically, what we see is we see consumers looking to go to alternates. Maybe they use the inventory they have in their home. They delay a purchase cycle. They look -- they engage in value-seeking behavior. They trade up to larger sizes -- or smaller sizes. And in very extreme cases, they leave the category. And then from a household penetration perspective, a number of those factors play in. We've seen some light users exit the category, which isn't a big surprise. It's typically what we've seen during price increases. And I think importantly to note, again, this is a category behavior, not a Clorox brand behavior.

通常情況下，我們看到的是消費者尋求替代品。也許他們會使用家裡的庫存。他們推遲了購買週期。他們看起來——他們從事價值追求行為。他們會選擇更大的尺寸或更小的尺寸。在非常極端的情況下，他們會離開該類別。然後從家庭滲透率的角度來看，許多因素都在發揮作用。我們已經看到一些輕度用戶退出了該類別，這並不令人意外。這通常是我們在價格上漲期間看到的情況。我認為重要的是要再次注意，這是一種品類行為，而不是高樂氏品牌行為。

And then what we're focused on, of course, is over time returning that household penetration. And I think it's important to put in perspective, we're still in 9 out of 10 U.S. households with our portfolio, but we want to be in a place where we're growing household penetration again. So what I would think about is all the investments that we spoke about a little earlier, increase in advertising and sales promotion as well as our focus on innovation and category growth plans are all in service of returning to volume growth, returning to household penetration growth. And then, of course, our aim over the long term: To grow share. We would expect household penetration to begin to improve as we get through pricing and as we move through the course of the year and then through the course of our plan. But what I would say is very in line with our expectation, and we feel good about the plans we have in place to continue to make progress on household penetration in fiscal year '24 and beyond.

當然，我們關注的是隨著時間的推移恢復家庭滲透率。我認為重要的是要正確看待，十分之九的美國家庭仍然擁有我們的投資組合，但我們希望能夠再次提高家庭滲透率。因此，我想的是，我們之前談到的所有投資、廣告和促銷的增加以及我們對創新和品類增長計劃的關注，都是為了恢復銷量增長、恢復家庭滲透率增長。當然，我們的長期目標是：擴大份額。我們預計，隨著我們完成定價、經過一年的過程，然後經過我們的計劃的過程，家庭滲透率將開始提高。但我想說的是，這非常符合我們的預期，我們對我們為在 24 財年及以後繼續在家庭滲透率方面取得進展而製定的計劃感到滿意。

And our next question comes from Filippo Falorni from Citi.

我們的下一個問題來自花旗銀行的 Filippo Falorni。

Just want to ask a question on gross margin again following up to Dara's question. What drove the outperformance relative to your plan in Q4? It seemed like cost savings came in well ahead of expectations and it was a record year for you guys, particularly Q4. And how much was the incremental volume leverage from better volume trends? And then as you think about next year, how should we think about cost savings with like also another year above algorithm?

繼達拉的問題之後，我只想再次問一個關於毛利率的問題。是什麼推動了第四季度業績優於您的計劃？成本節省似乎遠遠超出了預期，這對你們來說是創紀錄的一年，尤其是第四季度。更好的成交量趨勢帶來的增量成交量槓桿是多少？然後，當您考慮明年時，我們應該如何考慮使用上述算法來節省成本？

Yes. Thanks, Filippo, for the question. As it relates to Q4, and you're right, the over-delivery on gross margin versus our expectation, we went into the quarter targeting 40% to 41% gross margin. And as you saw, we delivered just under 43%. I would say for the most part, as you look at the various drivers within gross margin, they're generally in line with our expectation. That was certainly true for cost savings, pricing and commodities. The biggest variance was our top line performance and particularly on volume. And so volume [only] declined 2% for the quarter. We had projected a larger volume decline in the quarter. And as a result of that, that improved operating leverage, that really flowed through the entire P&L. It certainly benefited gross margin, but it also was a primary driver of our very strong earnings performance for the quarter.

是的。謝謝菲利波的提問。由於它與第四季度有關，你是對的，毛利率超出了我們的預期，我們進入該季度的目標是 40% 至 41% 的毛利率。正如您所見，我們的交付率略低於 43%。我想說的是，在很大程度上，當你觀察毛利率內的各種驅動因素時，它們通常符合我們的預期。對於成本節約、定價和商品來說確實如此。最大的差異是我們的營收表現，尤其是銷量。因此，本季度銷量僅下降了 2%。我們原本預計本季度銷量下降幅度更大。因此，運營槓桿的提高確實貫穿了整個損益表。這當然有利於毛利率，但它也是我們本季度強勁盈利表現的主要推動力。

And then as we go forward, and on your question on cost savings, look, our team did some just terrific work this year. We target 175 basis points of EBIT margin expansion each year through cost savings. In fiscal year '23, we delivered well north of 200 basis points, and that's really a credit to the team and the work they're doing to drive cost out of the system. And I still expect to have a very strong year this year as well. So I would expect this year we'll have another strong year that's probably north of 200 basis points. And that's incredibly important because as we said, we continue to operate in an inflationary environment. And for us to continue to grow margin, it's really based on the good work our team is doing both on driving cost savings and driving the supply chain optimization work we're doing. And that's allowing us to absorb that increased inflation and continue on our progress rebuilding margins. So really good work by the team and exceeded our goals both last year and I expect to do it again this year.

然後，當我們繼續前進時，關於您關於成本節約的問題，看，我們的團隊今年做了一些非常棒的工作。我們的目標是通過節省成本每年將息稅前利潤率擴大 175 個基點。在 23 財年，我們的業績遠超 200 個基點，這確實是團隊的功勞，也是他們為降低系統成本所做的工作的功勞。我仍然預計今年也會有非常強勁的一年。因此，我預計今年我們將迎來又一個強勁的一年，漲幅可能超過 200 個基點。這非常重要，因為正如我們所說，我們繼續在通脹環境中運營。對於我們來說，利潤率的持續增長，實際上是基於我們團隊在推動成本節約和供應鏈優化方面所做的出色工作。這使我們能夠吸收通脹上升的影響，並繼續重建利潤率。團隊的工作非常出色，去年都超出了我們的目標，我希望今年能再次做到這一點。

Great. That's a [valuable comment]. And then a high-level question, Linda, just in your guidance on top line. You mentioned you expect a sequential improvement in volume throughout the year. Just what gives you guys the confidence of the volume coming back other than, obviously, the comparisons? But like at a high level, is it incremental advertising investment? Or any other specific point that you can point to, to give us some confidence on the volume improvement?

偉大的。這是一個[有價值的評論]。然後是一個高級問題，琳達，就在您的頂線指導中。您提到您預計全年銷量將持續改善。除了比較之外，是什麼讓你們對銷量回歸充滿信心？但就像在高水平上一樣，這是增量廣告投資嗎？或者您可以指出任何其他具體點，讓我們對銷量的提高有信心？

Yes. On volume, maybe just to take a step back, I think, would be helpful and talk a little bit more similar to my comments on household penetration of what impacts volume and then what we believe we'll see over time as we return to more volume-based growth from more pricing-driven growth. So the big picture on this, we knew we were going to make a volume trade-off with the level of pricing that we took. And certainly, that pricing was cost justified, and I think that's the right trade-off given the fact that we were able to deliver the top line and margin progress that we committed to. And it's only one lever that we look at, at understanding brand and category health.

是的。在數量上，我認為，也許只是退後一步，會有所幫助，並更類似於我對影響數量的家庭滲透率的評論，然後我們相信，隨著時間的推移，當我們回到更多的時候，我們會看到什麼基於數量的增長來自於價格驅動的增長。因此，從大局來看，我們知道我們將根據我們採取的定價水平進行銷量權衡。當然，這個定價是合理的，而且我認為這是正確的權衡，因為我們能夠實現我們承諾的營收和利潤增長。這只是我們了解品牌和品類健康狀況的一個槓桿。

So if we look at volume, again, what impacts it, consumers are adjusting to pricing right now, and we still have 2 price increases that we'll lap here in Q1 and Q2. And so they're still adjusting to what the pricing is. And they're adjusting to pricing well beyond our categories. I think it's also important to note, there's an element of cross elasticity here. Everything in their world has changed from a wallet perspective, and they also just came through a pandemic and they want to have experiences. So we're watching that consumer settle out, and what we're seeing in our data is volumes are beginning to improve. You saw that. If you look at 52 weeks, our volumes were down more than they were in the latest 13 weeks, for example.

因此，如果我們再次考慮銷量，是什麼對其產生影響，消費者現在正在調整定價，我們仍然有兩次價格上漲，我們將在第一季度和第二季度進行。因此他們仍在調整定價。他們正在調整的定價遠遠超出了我們的類別。我認為還需要注意的是，這裡有一個交叉彈性的因素。從錢包的角度來看，他們世界的一切都發生了變化，而且他們也剛剛經歷了一場大流行，他們想要體驗一下。因此，我們正在觀察消費者的情況，並且我們在數據中看到的是數量開始增加。你看到了。例如，如果你看看 52 週，我們的銷量下降幅度比最近 13 週還要多。

So we are making improvement. We still have to lap those 2 price increases. But from a consumer behavior standpoint, what you'll see is consumers will return to their old routines because those routines were the most efficient and effective for them. And particularly in essential categories, they don't want to have to work harder to do this stuff. So perhaps they run through the inventory they have in their house. Maybe they tried an alternative and it doesn't work as well, and we tend to see those people start to come back.

所以我們正在改進。我們仍然需要經歷這兩次價格上漲。但從消費者行為的角度來看，你會看到消費者會回到他們的舊習慣，因為這些習慣對他們來說是最有效的。尤其是在重要的類別中，他們不想付出更多的努力來完成這些事情。所以也許他們會檢查家裡的庫存。也許他們嘗試了另一種選擇，但效果並不好，我們往往會看到這些人開始回來。

We -- also those light users that the category lost tend to come back again because we reintroduced our products to them through innovation. We use our advertising spend to talk to them about the benefits of the product. We remind them that, and they pick us up again as they send their child back to school or if their family experiences a run of cold and flu in the house. So those moments we tend to bring those light users over and volume tends to grow again. And we've seen that every time we've taken pricing, and that's consistent in categories.

我們——以及該類別失去的那些輕度用戶往往會再次回來，因為我們通過創新向他們重新介紹了我們的產品。我們利用廣告支出與他們談論產品的好處。我們提醒他們，當他們送孩子回學校或他們的家人在家裡患感冒和流感時，他們會再次接我們。因此，在那些時刻，我們傾向於吸引那些輕度用戶，並且數量往往會再次增長。我們每次定價時都看到這一點，而且在類別上是一致的。

I think what's unique for this time is the amount of inflation, our industry and Clorox experience specifically is unprecedented. We've certainly not taken this level of pricing. So it really will be about the pace that this happens at, but we're happy with the progress we've made so far. We think we have the right plans in place. We're making the right investments. Our brands are still a superior value versus what they were pre-pandemic. So they're very strong. And we believe over time, again, we will make progress on volumes and return to more volume-based growth moving forward.

我認為這次的獨特之處在於通貨膨脹的程度，我們的行業和高樂氏的經驗尤其是前所未有的。我們當然沒有採取這種定價水平。因此，這確實取決於事情發生的速度，但我們對迄今為止所取得的進展感到滿意。我們認為我們已經制定了正確的計劃。我們正在做出正確的投資。與大流行前相比，我們的品牌仍然具有更高的價值。所以他們很強。我們相信，隨著時間的推移，我們將再次在銷量方面取得進展，並恢復更多基於銷量的增長。

And our next question comes from Andrea Teixeira from JPMorgan.

我們的下一個問題來自摩根大通的 Andrea Teixeira。

My question is on the shipments and consumption trade-off, if there is any trade-offs. You mentioned that volumes came in better than anticipated, Linda, and it was driven by -- was it driven by consumption? Or do you think retailers were also rebuilding inventory given that consumption was better than feared? As you exit the quarter, do you feel inventory levels are where they should be? And then related to that, I also have a clarification on the assumption for the mild recession for the second half and your comments about like volumes coming in slightly better than anticipated. So -- but on top of that, you said the category behavior has been changing. Is that some more price elasticity that you saw towards the back end of the quarter or your exit rate on the quarter? Or are you just assuming prudently that at some point, you're going to see the historical price elasticity [1:1 kick in]?

我的問題是關於出貨量和消費量的權衡，是否有任何權衡。你提到銷量比預期要好，琳達，它是由消費驅動的嗎？或者您是否認為零售商也在重建庫存，因為消費情況好於預期？當您結束本季度時，您是否認為庫存水平處於應有的水平？與此相關的是，我還對下半年溫和衰退的假設以及您對類似交易量略好於預期的評論進行了澄清。所以 - 但最重要的是，你說品類行為一直在變化。這是您在本季度末看到的更多價格彈性還是本季度的退出率？或者您只是謹慎地假設在某個時候，您將看到歷史價格彈性[1:1 生效]？

Andrea, let me maybe start with your shipment consumption question, and then Linda can address price elasticity. As it relates to the fourth quarter, I think there's a few things we are seeing, and I'll talk both versus our expectations and on a year-over-year basis. Versus our expectations, as you know, we had anticipated about 3% to 6% organic sales growth, and we delivered much stronger growth in the quarter. That was primarily driven by consumption coming in stronger than we anticipated. So the consumer is still quite resilient, and we haven't seen any drop-off in consumption as we look Q4 to Q3. And we expect that we might see some drop-off in consumption and that didn't materialize.

安德里亞（Andrea），讓我從您的貨運消耗問題開始，然後琳達（Linda）可以解決價格彈性問題。由於它與第四季度有關，我認為我們看到了一些事情，我將談論與我們的預期和同比的情況。如您所知，與我們的預期相反，我們預計有機銷售增長約為 3% 至 6%，並且我們在本季度實現了更強勁的增長。這主要是由於消費強於我們的預期推動的。因此，消費者仍然具有相當的彈性，從第四季度到第三季度我們沒有看到消費出現任何下降。我們預計消費可能會有所下降，但這並沒有實現。

And then the other driver of our performance was Kingsford. As you know, we talked quite a bit about that last quarter. We were disappointed with our results in the third quarter. We made some changes to our plans. And I would tell you, we're a bit cautious on what exactly we'd be able to accomplish in the fourth quarter. But a credit to our team, we had very strong execution. That business grew both volume and double-digit in sales, so had a very strong performance. And that was the primary drivers to the over-delivery.

我們表現​​的另一個推動者是 Kingsford。如您所知，上個季度我們對此進行了很多討論。我們對第三季度的業績感到失望。我們對計劃做了一些改變。我想告訴你，我們對第四季度具體能夠實現的目標有點謹慎。但值得讚揚的是我們的團隊，我們的執行力非常強。該業務的銷量和銷售額都實現了兩位數的增長，因此表現非常強勁。這是超額交付的主要驅動因素。

The other element to think about, though, as it relates to inventory, we think retailers generally have the right inventory levels. But one of the reasons we had very strong growth on a year-over-year basis is if you think about last year, retailers were reducing inventory levels. And at the time, as we were all getting more comfortable with the resiliency of the supply chain, everyone was starting to take down their safety stocks. And we saw that last year with retailers reducing inventory. And if you think about what's really happening when they do that, what that means is retailers continue to sell to their customers, but they don't reorder from the manufacturers. So they're still selling product and not reordering from us.

不過，另一個需要考慮的因素是與庫存相關的，我們認為零售商通常擁有合適的庫存水平。但我們同比增長非常強勁的原因之一是，如果你想想去年，零售商正在降低庫存水平。當時，隨著我們對供應鏈的彈性越來越滿意，每個人都開始減少安全庫存。去年我們看到零售商減少了庫存。如果你想想他們這樣做時到底發生了什麼，這意味著零售商繼續向客戶銷售，但他們不會從製造商那裡重新訂購。所以他們仍在銷售產品，而不是從我們這裡重新訂購。

And so last year, our shipments lag consumption. This year, as you fast forward we saw our shipments much closer to consumption because retailers are not adjusting inventory levels. So on a year-over-year basis, that drove much stronger performance. That was particularly true in our home care business where we saw inventory reductions a year ago. We saw -- and particularly in wipes. We saw very strong wipe shipments this Q4, which was really now we're shipping in line with consumption, which was not the case a year ago. And that really contributed to very strong year-over-year performance and that 14% growth. And then Linda, I know she can speak to elasticities.

所以去年我們的出貨量落後於消費。今年，隨著時間的推移，我們看到我們的發貨量更加接近消費量，因為零售商沒有調整庫存水平。因此，與去年同期相比，這推動了業績的強勁增長。在我們的家庭護理業務中尤其如此，我們一年前就看到庫存減少。我們看到了——尤其是在濕巾方面。我們在第四季度看到擦拭巾的出貨量非常強勁，現在我們的出貨量確實與消費量一致，而一年前的情況並非如此。這確實促成了非常強勁的同比業績和 14% 的增長。然後琳達，我知道她可以談論彈性。

So on elasticity, what we saw in Q4 specifically was continued, in aggregate, lower elasticities than pre-pandemic and lower than we had expected. Again, this is nuanced by categories or some categories that are less favorable, et cetera. But in aggregate, our elasticities were more favorable than we expected. What we expect to happen in fiscal year '24 is over time those elasticities return to more normalized levels. And it's not anything related to particularly our categories, but just the broader pressure the consumer is under.

因此，就彈性而言，我們在第四季度看到的情況是，總的來說，彈性低於大流行前，也低於我們的預期。同樣，這因類別或某些不太有利的類別等而有細微差別。但總的來說，我們的彈性比我們預期的要好。我們預計在 24 財年，隨著時間的推移，這些彈性將恢復到更加正常化的水平。這與我們的品類無關，而只是消費者面臨的更廣泛的壓力。

So if you look at what's going on, certainly, balance sheets for them are returning to pre-pandemic levels, particularly savings rates where the consumer had a lot of excess savings over the last few years. Right now, we are anticipating a mild recession in the back half. We think that's the most prudent plan based on what we're seeing for economic predictions in the U.S. That will put additional pressure on the consumer as well. And we think those factors in combination will lead to more normalized price elasticities, and that's what we have assumed in the plan.

因此，如果你看看正在發生的事情，當然，他們的資產負債表正在恢復到大流行前的水平，特別是儲蓄率，因為消費者在過去幾年中擁有大量超額儲蓄。目前，我們預計下半年將出現溫和衰退。根據我們對美國經濟的預測，我們認為這是最謹慎的計劃，這也會給消費者帶來額外的壓力。我們認為這些因素結合起來將導致價格彈性更加正常化，這就是我們在計劃中所假設的。

That's helpful. And on the -- just a clarification, the impact of the inventory write-down -- not write-down, but inventory rationalization last year, was it like a low single-digit headwind that then disappeared this year or normalized?

這很有幫助。關於——只是澄清一下，庫存減記的影響——不是減記，而是去年的庫存合理化，它是否像一個低個位數的逆風，然後在今年消失或正常化？

Yes, Andrea, you're exactly right. Last year, we anticipated there was a couple of point headwind as a result of the inventory reductions at retailers. And so we didn't have that impact this year. So year-over-year, that's a source of benefit and part of the 14% organic sales growth we delivered this year. Part of that was driven by lapping that inventory reduction in the prior period.

是的，安德里亞，你說得完全正確。去年，我們預計零售商庫存減少會帶來一些阻力。所以今年我們沒有產生這種影響。因此，與去年同期相比，這是我們今年實現 14% 有機銷售增長的一個效益來源，也是其中的一部分。部分原因是上一時期庫存減少所致。

And our next question comes from Chris Carey from Wells Fargo.

我們的下一個問題來自富國銀行的克里斯·凱里。

Just one quick follow-up on the gross margin assumption. Kevin, you said in the prepared remarks that commodities would still be a bit inflationary. What are those commodities? I know there's always a lag, but I'd just be curious where you're seeing that just given the favorability that we can see on this side. Then I have a quick follow-up.

只是對毛利率假設的一個快速跟進。凱文，您在準備好的講話中表示，大宗商品仍然會有點通脹。那些商品是什麼？我知道總會有滯後，但我只是好奇你在哪裡看到了這一點，只是考慮到我們在這一方面可以看到的好感度。然後我會進行快速跟進。

Sure. Chris, as it relates to commodities and within that $200 million, we said about 1/3 of that we see is coming from commodity inflation. So that would be roughly $60 million or so. I would say there's a few areas. We're seeing substrate, some chemicals and some corrugate linerboard inflating year-over-year. Now that's partially being offset in a number of areas where we are expecting some deflation, particularly in ag products, soybean oil. We also expect diesel down year-over-year. In resin, we've got about flat on a year-over-year basis, so it's not necessarily contributing or helping. But that's really what we're seeing in terms of our commodity basket, and it's modestly inflationary. Certainly an improvement from where we were last year, but still modestly inflationary is what we're projecting.

當然。克里斯，因為它與大宗商品有關，在這 2 億美元中，我們說我們看到的大約 1/3 來自大宗商品通脹。所以這大約是 6000 萬美元左右。我想說有幾個領域。我們看到基材、一些化學品和一些瓦楞紙板逐年膨脹。現在，這在一些我們預計會出現通貨緊縮的領域被部分抵消，特別是在農產品、豆油領域。我們還預計柴油產量將同比下降。在樹脂方面，我們的業績同比持平，因此它不一定有貢獻或有幫助。但這確實是我們在大宗商品籃子方面看到的情況，而且通脹溫和。我們預計，與去年相比，情況肯定會有所改善，但通脹仍將適度。

Okay. And then just on the organic sales over-delivery, nontracked charcoal comping, some undershipment in the base and then stronger consumption, just to make sure I have those. Anything else that's coming up a lot this evening? Okay. All right. And then just the...

好的。然後，就有機銷售超額交付、非跟踪木炭補償、基地中的一些出貨不足以及更強的消費而言，只是為了確保我擁有這些。今晚還有什麼其他事情要發生嗎？好的。好的。然後只是...

Yes, those are the [3] primary drivers.

是的，這些是 [3] 主要驅動因素。

Okay. Great. Just like a strategic question, Linda. It's interesting how far this whole spectrum on investment has come that this evening, it's almost like are you spending enough. And you're talking about higher advertising spending, really strong S&A. And I guess maybe it'd be helpful, because we're getting through earnings season now, what's your take on why we're seeing this really significant step-up in investment levels? And it's not just from Clorox. It's from all of your peers. Marketing spending, SG&A are just going to levels that have not been seen in a very long time. Is this just a lot of manufacturers saying we need to get volumes going? Or are you feeling a lot more push from the retailers to get volumes going? Just what are your thoughts on maybe why this investment cycle is coming together and some of the key drivers and see where it's going? So just -- I know it's a big question, but thanks for any thoughts.

好的。偉大的。就像一個戰略問題一樣，琳達。有趣的是，今晚整個投資範圍已經走了多遠，幾乎就像你花得足夠多一樣。你談論的是更高的廣告支出，以及非常強勁的銷售與管理費用。我想這可能會有所幫助，因為我們現在正在經歷財報季節，您對為什麼我們看到投資水平出現如此顯著的提升有何看法？而且它不僅僅來自 Clorox。這是來自你所有同齡人的。營銷支出、SG&A 剛剛達到很長一段時間以來未曾見過的水平。這只是很多製造商說我們需要提高產量嗎？或者您是否感受到零售商加大了推動銷量的力度？您對為什麼這個投資週期會同時出現以及一些關鍵驅動因素有何看法？看看它的發展方向是什麼？所以，我知道這是一個大問題，但感謝您的任何想法。

Sure, Chris. Yes, I won't speak on behalf of the industry. I'll certainly let everyone speak on their own behalf. But I can just give you the insights into how we're thinking about it, and I think it's a pretty clear understanding. We -- headed into COVID, we had learned a lot about volatility and the impact it had on our business. And so we began investing more a number of years ago to ensure that we have the right digital foundation, that we have the right organization suited to a more volatile environment, that we have the right capabilities to ensure that we continue to lead from a consumer insights perspective and that the data we have flows as fast as we possibly can get it so that we can make quick decisions. So that was certainly an area for us where we needed to invest within our digital transformation and our operating model to ensure we could react as fast as consumers could be. We want to be more consumer fast -- faster and leaner.

當然，克里斯。是的，我不會代表行業發言。我當然會讓每個人代表自己發言。但我可以向您提供我們如何思考這個問題的見解，我認為這是一個非常清晰的理解。我們——進入新冠疫情后，我們了解了很多有關波動性及其對我們業務的影響的知識。因此，我們在幾年前開始加大投資，以確保我們擁有正確的數字基礎，我們擁有適合更加不穩定的環境的正確組織，我們擁有適當的能力來確保我們繼續以消費者為主導我們擁有的數據會盡可能快地流動，以便我們能夠快速做出決策。因此，這對我們來說無疑是一個需要對數字化轉型和運營模式進行投資的領域，以確保我們能夠像消費者一樣快速做出反應。我們希望成為更快的消費者——更快、更精簡。

And then if you look at the bucket on promotional spending, I look at that as more of a return to the norm. And for us, that spending is on good things. We spend mostly on quality merchandising. We do that to introduce consumers to innovation. We do that to remind them in key pulse points of the year, like back to school, back to college, remind them the great products that we have, introduce them to new benefits, et cetera. And so seeing that return to more pre-pandemic levels, I think, makes good sense given that the industry can fully supply now. We can certainly supply now. And so we get back into that good cadence of giving the right information to shoppers.

然後，如果你看看促銷支出的情況，我認為這更多的是回歸常態。對我們來說，這些支出是在好的東西上。我們主要花在優質商品上。我們這樣做是為了向消費者介紹創新。我們這樣做是為了提醒他們一年中的關鍵脈搏，比如回到學校、回到大學，提醒他們我們擁有的優質產品，向他們介紹新的福利等等。因此，我認為，鑑於該行業現在可以充分供應，看到回到大流行前的水平是很有意義的。我們現在當然可以供應。因此，我們又回到了向購物者提供正確信息的良好節奏。

And then on A&SP, which we have decided to take up, as you know, from 10% to 11% and we addressed earlier, I think this is another case where the number one thing that we can do right now is ensure that we have superior value for our consumers. And we have that from a ratings perspective. Over the last couple of years, we reached the highest brand superiority overall from a portfolio perspective we've ever had. We continue to have more of our portfolio superior than we did pre-pandemic. And we think given the stress that consumer is going to be under, it would make absolute sense, given the improvement we've made on margin, to invest a bit more in advertising and sales promotion to secure that with consumers.

然後，關於 A&SP，如您所知，我們決定將其比例從 10% 提高到 11%，我們之前已經討論過，我認為這是另一種情況，我們現在能做的第一件事就是確保我們為我們的消費者帶來卓越的價值。從收視率的角度來看，我們有這一點。在過去的幾年裡，從產品組合的角度來看，我們總體上達到了最高的品牌優勢。我們的投資組合繼續比大流行前更好。我們認為，考慮到消費者將面臨的壓力，鑑於我們在利潤率方面取得的進步，在廣告和促銷方面投入更多資金以確保消費者的利益是絕對有意義的。

And that's how we're thinking about it. We have great brands, great innovation, great products. And we want them at this time when they're making those choices in their total basket of spending to remind them in our household essential categories, no one delivers a better value than Clorox. And that's exactly what we're focused on. So to me, I think it's exactly what we do. We focus on the long term. We focus on building brands, and the spending is right in line with doing that.

這就是我們的想法。我們擁有偉大的品牌、偉大的創新、偉大的產品。我們希望他們在這個時候在他們的總支出籃子中做出這些選擇時提醒他們在我們的家庭必需品類別中，沒有人比 Clorox 提供更好的價值。這正是我們關注的重點。所以對我來說，我認為這正是我們所做的。我們著眼於長期。我們專注於打造品牌，而支出正是與此相一致的。

And our next question comes from Javier Escalante from Evercore ISI.

我們的下一個問題來自 Evercore ISI 的 Javier Escalante。

I have another permutation of [this thing, observed] retail sales in tracked channels versus the over-deliver in the quarter. But hopefully, it's from a different angle. So if you can talk about all channel retail sales growth, if you give us a sense of what were Clorox' Q4 retail sales, including online and Home Depots and things like that, so we can better understand your guidance going into fiscal '24. So if we can start with that, and I have a follow-up.

我對[觀察到的]跟踪渠道中的零售額與本季度的超額交付進行了另一種排列。但希望這是從不同的角度來看的。因此，如果您能談論所有渠道的零售銷售增長，如果您能讓我們了解 Clorox 第四季度的零售銷售情況，包括在線和家得寶等，這樣我們就可以更好地理解您對 24 財年的指導。如果我們可以從這個開始，我會有一個後續行動。

Javier, let me see if this helps. If you look at our Q4 performance, and I think your question is sales across many different channels, as you saw, very strong growth. If you look at tracked channels, that's true. But what I'd also tell you is some of the areas that are not showing up in tracked channels, we had very strong performance. Our PPD business grew both volume and sales in the quarter. In international, we held volumes and grew sales 14% organically. And then our nontracked sales were even stronger than tracked. So we're seeing broad performance not only in tracked channels, but we're seeing it in all the areas where we're selling product. And that contributed to the overall performance of the business, and that's why you'll probably see even stronger results than what you're seeing if you're just looking at tracked channel performance.

哈維爾，讓我看看這是否有幫助。如果您查看我們第四季度的業績，我認為您的問題是許多不同渠道的銷售，正如您所看到的，增長非常強勁。如果您查看跟踪的頻道，那就是真的。但我還要告訴您的是，在跟踪渠道中沒有出現的一些領域，我們的表現非常強勁。我們的 PPD 業務在本季度的數量和銷售額均有所增長。在國際市場，我們保持了銷量，銷售額有機增長了 14%。然後我們的非跟踪銷售甚至比跟踪銷售還要強勁。因此，我們不僅在跟踪渠道中看到了廣泛的表現，而且在我們銷售產品的所有領域中都看到了這種表現。這對業務的整體績效做出了貢獻，這就是為什麼您可能會看到比僅查看跟踪的渠道績效所看到的結果更好的結果。

Well, the reason I'm asking that is because I think Linda mentioned that consumption was stronger, right? And this is part of the over-deliver in the quarter, but we don't see that in tracked channels. We see retail source growth at 6%, both in the March and the June quarter, and then there is this very big difference in organic sales and particularly on the volume side. So wondering if you could at least -- let me tackle differently. What percentage of your sales is in nontracked channels specifically in this quarter given the seasonality of Kingsford? That would be helpful.

嗯，我這麼問的原因是因為我認為琳達提到消費更強勁，對吧？這是本季度超額交付的一部分，但我們在跟踪渠道中沒有看到這一點。我們預計 3 月和 6 月季度的零售來源增長率均為 6%，並且有機銷售額（尤其是銷量方面）存在很大差異。所以想知道你是否至少可以——讓我以不同的方式處理。考慮到 Kingsford 的季節性，您在本季度的非跟踪渠道銷售額中所佔的百分比是多少？那會有幫助的。

Javier, maybe it would be good just to back up again and go through -- make sure we go through all the drivers of what drove tracked consumption versus organic sales, and Kevin just covered part of it. But we do have a fair amount of our sales in nontracked channels. It's a little complicated because nontracked does not include international PPD, which is why Kevin broke it out the way he did. So just to break it down, we had Q4 organic sales growth of 14%, and we saw tracked channel consumption of about 7%. So the delta would be what Kevin highlighted. International and PPD are portion of that. PPD grew volume. International held volume. Remember that we're lapping wipes inventory that Kevin spoke about, and that's a portion of it.

哈維爾，也許最好再次備份並進行檢查 - 確保我們檢查了推動跟踪消費與有機銷售的所有驅動因素，凱文剛剛涵蓋了其中的一部分。但我們確實有相當一部分銷售來自非跟踪渠道。這有點複雜，因為非追踪不包括國際 PPD，這就是 Kevin 這樣做的原因。細分來看，我們第四季度的有機銷售額增長了 14%，跟踪渠道消費約為 7%。所以凱文強調的就是三角洲。 International 和 PPD 是其中的一部分。 PPD 成交量增加。國際持有量。請記住，我們正在研磨凱文談到的擦拭巾庫存，這只是其中的一部分。

And then we saw stronger nontracked performance in a number of retailers on a number of businesses, and that's across e-commerce and brick-and-mortar, et cetera. And then in addition to that, we haven't spoken a lot about this yet, but we do always ship some of our Q1 events in Q4, and that contributed to that delta as well. But we do have a strong nontracked channel presence. And so yes, that absolutely can move the number. And this is pretty normal for us to have a quarter that is a bit disconnected from tracked channel sales, in addition that you have the fact that we have very strong merchandising in Q1 as we normally do and we typically ship some of that in Q4. But those are really the -- if you look at those 4 buckets, those are the 4 buckets of the difference between the 14% and the 7%.

然後我們看到一些零售商在許多業務上的非追踪表現更強勁，包括電子商務和實體店等。除此之外，我們還沒有對此進行太多討論，但我們總是在第四季度發布一些第一季度的事件，這也促成了這一增量。但我們確實擁有強大的非追踪渠道。是的，這絕對可以改變這個數字。對於我們來說，有一個季度與跟踪的渠道銷售有點脫節是很正常的，此外，我們在第一季度有非常強大的銷售，就像我們通常做的那樣，我們通常在第四季度發貨一些。但這些確實是——如果你看一下這 4 個部分，就會發現這 4 個部分就是 14% 和 7% 之間差異的 4 個部分。

And if I can squeeze in something when it comes to pricing for next year, how much is the carryover impact for -- in fiscal '24?

如果我可以在明年的定價方面加入一些內容，那麼對 24 財年的結轉影響是多少？

Javier, at this point, it's pretty minimal. What we have left to lap is the fourth round of pricing we took for half a year. So if you look this year, we had in total about 670 basis points of total benefit for the year. You should expect a much smaller benefit in fiscal year '24 because now we're looking at just half a year on one of our pricing actions, and the fourth round was not as large as the third round.

哈維爾，在這一點上，這是相當小的。剩下的就是我們歷時半年的第四輪定價。因此，如果你看看今年，我們今年的總效益總共約為 670 個基點。您應該預計 24 財年的收益要小得多，因為現在我們的一項定價行動只持續了半年，而且第四輪的規模沒有第三輪那麼大。

And our next question comes from Olivia Tong from Raymond James.

我們的下一個問題來自 Raymond James 的 Olivia Tong。

I just want to [revisit] gross margin because the pace of gross margin expansion in fiscal '24 versus the year just reported, obviously, a fair bit of deceleration. But I'm trying to understand, I mean, fiscal '23 recovery in gross margin was still meaningfully ahead of your expectations. Why is the pace of expansion slowing so much in fiscal '24? Because cost inflation, while maybe not down, is certainly less of a pressure versus last year. Pricing is, by and large, working. The top line is growing, and gross margin is still quite a bit below pre-COVID level. So would love a little bit more color on that.

我只想[重新審視]毛利率，因為與剛剛報告的一年相比，24 財年的毛利率擴張速度顯然有相當大的減速。但我試圖理解，我的意思是，23 財年毛利率的複蘇仍然大大超出了您的預期。為什麼 24 財年擴張步伐如此放緩？因為成本通脹雖然可能沒有下降，但與去年相比壓力肯定較小。總的來說，定價是有效的。收入正在增長，毛利率仍遠低於新冠疫情前的水平。所以會喜歡在上面多一點顏色。

Sure, Olivia. As it relates to gross margin, as you said, we continue to expect to make progress this year. So our commitment is to rebuild gross margin back to pre-pandemic levels. This year, we're looking at about 150 to 175 basis points of progress. And that's slowing from what we delivered last year and is primarily driven by pricing. So we took 4 rounds of pricing over the last 18 months, and that had a significant benefit last year. It contributed over 650 bps to gross margin. As we look at fiscal year '24, as I was just mentioning to Javier, we have fairly limited pricing in the plan. We're going to get a little bit of carryover on that fourth price increase. So it'll have a smaller impact on gross margin.

當然，奧利維亞。正如您所說，由於它與毛利率有關，我們繼續預計今年會取得進展。因此，我們的承諾是將毛利率重建到大流行前的水平。今年，我們預計將取得約 150 至 175 個基點的進展。這比我們去年交付的速度有所放緩，這主要是由定價驅動的。因此，我們在過去 18 個月內進行了 4 輪定價，這在去年帶來了顯著的效益。它對毛利率的貢獻超過 650 個基點。當我們回顧 24 財年時，正如我剛剛向哈維爾提到的那樣，我們計劃中的定價相當有限。我們將在第四次提價時獲得一些結轉。因此對毛利率的影響較小。

And then we're really able to grow margin based on all the very good work our team is doing on cost savings and supply chain optimization. So in spite of still dealing with about $200 million worth of cost inflation, we believe we can more than offset that through the good work we're doing within the supply chain and continue to grow gross margins. And so while we're making good progress, I'd expect that to continue as we move into fiscal year '25. I expect that progress to continue.

然後，基於我們團隊在成本節約和供應鏈優化方面所做的所有出色工作，我們確實能夠增加利潤。因此，儘管我們仍在應對價值約 2 億美元的成本通脹，但我們相信，通過我們在供應鏈中所做的出色工作，我們完全可以抵消這一影響，並繼續提高毛利率。因此，雖然我們取得了良好進展，但我預計隨著我們進入第 25 財年，這種情況將繼續下去。我希望這種進展能夠繼續下去。

The one thing we'll have to look at over time is we've bought these commodities for decades. They are cyclical. At some point, they'll turn deflationary. That's not our expectation this year. But certainly, when that occurs, that will certainly accelerate the pace of recovery. It's just hard in this environment to predict exactly when that's going to occur. But we feel very good about our ability to rebuild margins back to those pre-pandemic levels. And we know that's going to take some time to get there. But I have to tell you, I feel very good about the progress we're going to continue to make this year in spite of ongoing inflation we're dealing with.

隨著時間的推移，我們必須關注的一件事是我們已經購買這些商品數十年了。它們是周期性的。在某些時候，它們會變得通貨緊縮。這不是我們今年的預期。但可以肯定的是，當這種情況發生時，肯定會加快復甦的步伐。在這種環境下很難準確預測這種情況何時會發生。但我們對將利潤率重建回大流行前水平的能力感到非常滿意。我們知道這需要一些時間才能實現。但我必須告訴你，儘管我們正在應對持續的通貨膨脹，但我對今年我們將繼續取得的進展感到非常滿意。

Olivia, I'll add just one point to that. Kevin underscored the $200 million, which is significantly better than what we had at $500 million in fiscal year '23. But I just want to underscore, that's still 3x the level of average we had before we got into this inflationary cycle on an average year of inflation. So I think the point that Kevin is making is really important to understand. This is still a very challenging environment with significant cost inflation, although certainly better than we experienced over the last 2 years.

奧利維亞，我只想補充一點。 Kevin 強調了 2 億美元，這比我們 23 財年的 5 億美元要好得多。但我只是想強調，就平均通脹年份而言，這仍然是進入本通脹週期之前平均水平的 3 倍。所以我認為理解凱文提出的觀點非常重要。這仍然是一個非常具有挑戰性的環境，成本大幅上漲，儘管肯定比我們過去兩年經歷的要好。

Got it. And then on the top line, as you look towards rebuilding volume as the year progresses, can you talk a little bit about innovation and what role that plays? And in your view, what kind of impact does innovation have on this year versus last?

知道了。然後，在最重要的方面，當您希望隨著時間的推移重建銷量時，您能談談創新及其發揮的作用嗎？在您看來，今年的創新與去年相比有何影響？

Sure. Yes, innovation continues to be the lifeblood of how we grow our brands over time. And we set out to deliver bigger, stickier innovation platforms as part of our IGNITE strategy, and we've talked about the fact that we've been able to have more net contribution from innovation in our strategy period than we did in the prior strategy period. And we're going to continue to focus on accelerating that this year. We have innovation across our portfolio just as we did this year. So all of our major brands launched innovation in fiscal year '23. We would expect something similar in fiscal year '24. We're really focused on value and value superiority in that innovation. So we're looking at a combination of product improvements and new innovations as well as good claims support. And of course, we'll support that innovation with that 11% of sales from an advertising and sales promotion perspective.

當然。是的，隨著時間的推移，創新仍然是我們品牌發展的命脈。作為 IGNITE 戰略的一部分，我們著手提供更大、更具粘性的創新平台，我們已經討論過這樣一個事實，即我們在戰略期間能夠從創新中獲得比之前戰略更多的淨貢獻時期。今年我們將繼續致力於加速這一進程。正如今年一樣，我們的產品組合都有創新。因此，我們所有的主要品牌都在 23 財年推出了創新。我們預計 24 財年會出現類似情況。我們真正關注的是創新中的價值和價值優勢。因此，我們正在考慮產品改進和新創新以及良好的索賠支持的結合。當然，我們將從廣告和促銷的角度用這 11% 的銷售額來支持這一創新。

But we think as we lap these price increases, as the consumer comes under more pressure, innovation will be as important as it ever has been. And certainly, our retailers are looking for innovation to help them grow their categories to ensure that we're getting shoppers down the aisles, et cetera. So what I would say is it's a continuation of what we've done. Of course, we want to have additional progress as we can, and we think we have the right investments to ensure that, that continues in fiscal year '24.

但我們認為，隨著價格上漲，消費者面臨更大的壓力，創新將一如既往地重要。當然，我們的零售商正在尋求創新來幫助他們擴大產品類別，以確保我們能夠吸引購物者，等等。所以我想說的是，這是我們所做工作的延續。當然，我們希望盡可能取得更多進展，並且我們認為我們有適當的投資來確保這一點在 24 財年繼續下去。

And our next question comes from Lauren Lieberman from Barclays.

我們的下一個問題來自巴克萊銀行的勞倫·利伯曼。

Great. So just taking a look -- [playing on our] model and looking at kind of the dreaded multiyear stacks [and so on] and -- but looking at the 2-year stacks on volume and on price mix for this quarter, in particular, like all your comments make, frankly, more and more sense on the things you were lapping and the contribution, for example, for charcoal to price mix, the inverse probably, I guess, for wipes on health and wellness. I was curious, as we look forward, any other periods, because the stacks are messy, that you think should be called out where there is a dynamic of retailers having reduced inventory in the prior year so that we should be particularly keen for differences in shipments versus what we're seeing in tracked channels, knowing there's always on tracked that we won't see?

偉大的。因此，只需看一下 - [使用我們的]模型並查看某種可怕的多年堆棧[等等] - 但特別是查看本季度的 2 年堆棧數量和價格組合，就像你所有的評論一樣，坦率地說，對你所研磨的東西和貢獻越來越有意義，例如，木炭對價格組合的影響，我想，對於健康和保健擦拭巾來說，情況可能相反。我很好奇，正如我們期待的那樣，任何其他時期，因為堆棧很混亂，你認為應該指出零售商在前一年減少庫存的動態，因此我們應該特別熱衷於差異出貨量與我們在跟踪渠道中看到的情況相比，知道總是有我們看不到的跟踪渠道嗎？

Lauren, it has certainly been, as we said, bumpy. This is now -- this is -- everyone understands, I think, the definition of bumpy in that we have lots of laps, et cetera. I would say we are at a pretty good period of normalization now where I don't see anything that we look ahead and say there was a significant inventory buildup or something that we have to lap that's very notable. We've gone through the COVID wave lapping. Pricing would be the one thing I'd call. We're still lapping pricing. And Kevin, I think, and I have been clear on that. But I think you can predict that based off of what we put out there.

勞倫，正如我們所說，這確實是坎坷的。現在，我想，每個人都明白顛簸的定義，因為我們有很多圈，等等。我想說，我們現在正處於一個非常好的正常化時期，我沒有看到任何我們展望未來的情況，並說有大量的庫存積累或我們必須克服的非常值得注意的事情。我們已經經歷了新冠疫情的浪潮。定價是我所說的一件事。我們仍在定價。我想凱文，我已經明確表示這一點。但我認為你可以根據我們發布的內容來預測這一點。

And of course, that comment is barring any other changes that we see, any other shocks in the environment. I want to knock on a little bit of wood saying that. But I don't see anything material that we would be looking ahead and saying there's a big lap ahead of us that we have to consider, pricing being the one exception.

當然，這一評論排除了我們看到的任何其他變化，以及環境中的任何其他衝擊。我想敲一點木頭說這句話。但我沒有看到任何值得我們展望未來並表示我們必須考慮的重大事項，定價是一個例外。

Okay. Great. And then just in follow-up, I was curious if you could comment on kind of where you stand, I guess, in terms of shelf space or distribution and knowing that -- I know we've talked about several times in the past pre-COVID, there was some kind of lost shelf space, and now you've had, as you pointed out in the release, really strong innovation agenda. So I guess, where do you stand on kind of shelf space? How are you thinking -- do you think there's opportunities to be growing shelf space with innovation in '24? Is that part of the outlook or not so much?

好的。偉大的。然後在後續行動中，我很好奇你是否可以評論一下你的立場，我想，在貨架空間或分佈方面，並且知道——我知道我們在過去已經討論過好幾次了-新冠肺炎，貨架空間有所損失，但正如您在新聞稿中指出的那樣，現在您擁有了非常強大的創新議程。所以我想，你站在貨架空間的什麼位置？您如何看待——您認為 24​​ 世紀有機會通過創新來擴大貨架空間嗎？這是前景的一部分還是不那麼重要？

Yes. We made good progress as we return to full supply and getting our total distributions point up. So we made good progress over the last, call it, 18 to 24 months across a number of our businesses. And you all remember that in many cases where the current -- us and our competitors couldn't fully supply, there were a lot of third tier brands that have entered in. For the most part, that is cleaned up, and we've been able to gain distribution points as a result of that in aggregate.

是的。隨著我們恢復全面供應並提高總分配點，我們取得了良好進展。因此，我們的多項業務在過去 18 至 24 個月內取得了良好進展。你們都記得，在很多情況下，我們和我們的競爭對手目前無法完全供應，有很多三線品牌進入了。在大多數情況下，這是清理乾淨的，我們已經總共能夠獲得分配點。

What we're focused on for fiscal year '24 is exactly what you said. We want to gain distribution on our innovation. We want to make sure that we have the right SKUs on the shelf as we think about the right pack for the consumer given they're value-seeking. We think we've done most of that work. But we want to continue to make progress and particularly, ensure that we get our innovations on shelf as fast as we possibly can on both the physical and digital shelf. And that's what the team will be focused on. And that will contribute to '24. We expect the category growth plans and the plans we have with retailers and our execution of those plans to contribute. But we feel good about what we're walking into and what we have for both the front half and the back half.

我們 24 財年的重點正是您所說的。我們希望獲得我們的創新的分配。我們希望確保貨架上有正確的 SKU，因為考慮到消費者追求價值，我們會考慮為他們提供合適的包裝。我們認為我們已經完成了大部分工作。但我們希望繼續取得進展，特別是確保我們的創新盡快在實體和數字貨架上上架。這就是團隊將關注的重點。這將為‘24’做出貢獻。我們期望品類增長計劃、我們與零售商制定的計劃以及我們對這些計劃的執行做出貢獻。但我們對我們即將面臨的情況以及前半部分和後半部分的情況感到滿意。

And our next question comes from Stephen Powers from Deutsche Bank.

我們的下一個問題來自德意志銀行的斯蒂芬·鮑爾斯。

Sorry. Can you hear me?

對不起。你能聽到我嗎？

Hi, Steve. [We hear you].

嗨，史蒂夫。 [我們聽到你的聲音]。

Great. So following up on that conversation you were just having with Lauren actually. So it sounds like things are relatively normalized from a supply and inventory standpoint. So the guidance implies shipping to consumption. I guess I'm curious if it also -- you've guided to what you expect category growth rates to be, both from a value perspective and a volume perspective, or if you're embedding any bias of share gain or even some shared sacrifice as you still continue to rebuild the margins. Just how do I think about your guide relative to category growth expectations?

偉大的。所以，接下來你實際上只是在和勞倫進行對話。因此，從供應和庫存的角度來看，情況似乎相對正常化。因此，該指導意味著運輸到消費。我想我很好奇，你是否也從價值角度和數量角度指導了你所期望的品類增長率，或者你是否嵌入了任何份額增益的偏差，甚至是一些共享的偏差。犧牲，因為你仍在繼續重建利潤。我如何看待您的指南相對於品類增長預期的影響？

So we've certainly taken into account, that's the foundation of any year that we plan, we look at what we expect the categories to contribute and our assumptions in both as we lap pricing and as we head into what we predict as a mild recession in the back half of our fiscal assume category rates commensurate with that. And then by category, we're looking at our plans, comparing it to that and adjusting based off of if we see headwinds or tailwinds. We want to make progress over the long term on share. We've built that into these plans. We've built in the fact that we're spending additional advertising and sales promotion, that we have good innovation plans. And that lands us at the total outlook that we've provided. But they're very much grounded in the realities of the categories and what we expect.

因此，我們當然已經考慮到了，這是我們計劃的任何一年的基礎，當我們調整定價以及進入我們預測的溫和衰退時，我們會考慮我們期望這些類別做出的貢獻以及我們的假設在我們財政的後半部分，假設類別利率與此相稱。然後按類別，我們正在研究我們的計劃，將其與計劃進行比較，並根據我們是否看到逆風或順風進行調整。我們希望在份額方面取得長期進展。我們已將其納入這些計劃中。我們已經建立了這樣一個事實：我們正在花費額外的廣告和促銷費用，我們有良好的創新計劃。這讓我們看到了我們所提供的總體前景。但它們在很大程度上基於類別的現實和我們的期望。

Okay. So just to summarize that, on a net basis, it doesn't sound like -- it sounds like the top line, all you're making is essentially in line with category growth. If things go well, maybe top end, we'll have market share gain. If not, you're kind of in the zone. Is that fair?

好的。總結一下，從淨值來看，這聽起來不像——聽起來像是頂線，你所做的一切基本上與品類增長一致。如果一切進展順利，也許會達到高端，我們將獲得市場份額。如果沒有，那麼你就進入了狀態。這公平嗎？

That's fair.

這還算公平。

And our next question comes from Jason English from Goldman Sachs.

我們的下一個問題來自高盛的 Jason English。

Congratulations on a strong finish to the year. I'm going to totally date myself by going back in time to a time where you guys used to give us a log of all your price increases and decreases. The point there was there were decreases back in, I think, 2009 and 2010. You had some decreases on Glad [and Litter]. More recently, in 2018, I think you rolled back prices on Glad. Obviously, all of that was accompanied by pretty substantial downdrafts in commodities. So my question is if we get to your point, Kevin, [there are downdrafts] in commodities because these commodities, to your point, are cyclical, would we expect or should we expect you to roll back some of these price increases that you put through, 1 of the 4 last year or 2? Or in light of the investment you're making, like are you trying to manage the business differently? So instead of give back that relief in the form of pricing, [you spend it back into the ability] of the P&L through lines like A&P and marketing?

祝賀您今年取得圓滿成功。我將通過回到過去你們曾經向我們提供所有價格上漲和下跌日誌的時間來徹底約會自己。重點是，我認為 2009 年和 2010 年有所下降。Glad [和 Litter] 有所下降。最近，在 2018 年，我認為你們降低了 Glad 的價格。顯然，所有這些都伴隨著大宗商品的大幅下跌。所以我的問題是，如果我們明白你的觀點，凱文，大宗商品[存在下行趨勢]，因為這些大宗商品，就你的觀點而言，是周期性的，我們是否會期望或應該期望你回滾你所設定的部分價格上漲去年 4 次中的 1 次還是 2 次？或者根據您正在進行的投資，您是否嘗試以不同的方式管理業務？因此，您不是以定價的形式回饋這種救濟，而是通過 A&P 和營銷等業務將其重新投入到損益表的能力中？

Jason, thank you for your comments. And then on your question on price rollbacks, just to be completely clear so we're all on the same page, we've rolled back one price increase in a category we no longer own from a truckload perspective after taking an increase. And the other ones that you're referring to, I think, rightfully on Glad is we've always used trade as a way to evaluate given resin is such a volatile commodity. And so as we've taken pricing, we've used trade in the past in order to make up the difference if we've seen favorability in resin that we needed to deal with or we saw something change in the category.

傑森，謝謝您的評論。然後，關於您關於價格回滾的問題，為了完全清楚，以便我們都在同一頁面上，我們在漲價後從卡車裝載量的角度回滾了我們不再擁有的類別的一次漲價。我認為，你提到的其他問題，我認為，在高興上是正確的，我們一直使用貿易作為評估給定樹脂這種不穩定商品的一種方式。因此，在我們進行定價時，如果我們看到我們需要處理的樹脂受到青睞，或者我們看到該類別發生了一些變化，我們過去會使用貿易來彌補差額。

But the pricing that we've taken has stuck in the marketplace. And given what we're facing right now, obviously, we have not fully recovered margins, have made great progress through the pricing action we've taken, but we have additional work to do given the fact that we continue to see an inflationary environment with what we talked about 3x the average year, certainly better than last year, but still a big headwind. We are planning to and anticipate that price increases will stick and that we'll bring back volume and household penetration through innovation and through investment in advertising and sales promotion. But we don't see any structural reason why these price increases wouldn't stick like they have in the past. And again, we're really focused on ensuring we grow categories the right way through these other levers.

但我們採取的定價已經在市場上停滯不前。考慮到我們現在面臨的情況，顯然，我們還沒有完全恢復利潤，通過我們採取的定價行動取得了很大進展，但鑑於我們繼續看到通脹環境，我們還有更多工作要做我們所說的平均水平是去年的三倍，當然比去年好，但仍然是一個很大的阻力。我們計劃並預計價格將持續上漲，並且我們將通過創新以及廣告和促銷投資來恢復銷量和家庭滲透率。但我們沒有看到任何結構性原因導致這些價格上漲不會像過去那樣持續下去。再說一次，我們真正專注於確保通過這些其他槓桿以正確的方式發展類別。

And if we need to make an adjustment, I think Kingsford is a good example. We did not roll back pricing. So we took pricing. Competition did not follow. We made an adjustment to our plan by putting incremental merchant place. We did not roll back. Our truckload pricing, we continue to hold that, is a good example of how we're approaching it that if we see a dynamic in a category we need to react to, we will try to do that in a short-term manner and maintain the truckload pricing we've taken.

如果我們需要做出調整，我認為金斯福德是一個很好的例子。我們沒有降低定價。所以我們採取了定價。競爭並沒有隨之而來。我們對計劃進行了調整，增加了商戶位置。我們沒有回滾。我們仍然認為，我們的整車定價是我們如何處理這個問題的一個很好的例子，如果我們看到我們需要做出反應的類別的動態，我們將嘗試以短期方式做到這一點並維持我們採取的整車定價。

Okay. So that actually sounds like you do intend to manage pricing different than [you did] a decade ago or so. Last time, we came through a commodity super cycle where you didn't just adjust by trade, you actually announced those price increases. You published list price increases. You gave us a lot of list price decreases on the back end of it. And I'm hearing you say now that that's -- even if commodities do come in, that's not the intent. The intent is to manage it differently with trade, [flexi] trade if we find ourselves in that scenario. And I totally appreciate that you don't see that scenario. That's not what you're calling for in 2024 given the commodity and the overall inflationary environment.

好的。因此，聽起來您確實打算以與十年前不同的方式管理定價。上次，我們經歷了大宗商品超級週期，您不僅通過貿易進行調整，而且實際上宣布了價格上漲。您發布了標價上漲。你們在後端給了我們很多標價下降。我現在聽到你說，即使商品確實進入，這也不是意圖。目的是通過貿易、[靈活]貿易來管理它，如果我們發現自己處於這種情況的話。我非常感謝你沒有看到這種情況。考慮到大宗商品和整體通脹環境，這不是您在 2024 年所呼籲的。

Yes, I see it as a continuation of what we've done in the past, Jason. It seems -- sounds like we have a little bit of different data. But yes, I think we're getting to the same conclusion, which is we intend for these and price increases to stick. We think we have the right tools in place to do that. And we're focused on all the other levers we can pull to continue the strong category performance we've had from a top line perspective, as I noted on spending and innovation. But you're landing on the same conclusion, which is we believe these price increases will stick and have a good structural reason to do that.

是的，我認為這是我們過去所做的事情的延續，傑森。聽起來我們有一些不同的數據。但是，是的，我認為我們得出了相同的結論，那就是我們打算讓這些和價格上漲持續下去。我們認為我們擁有合適的工具來做到這一點。正如我在支出和創新方面所指出的那樣，我們專注於我們可以利用的所有其他槓桿，以繼續從營收角度保持強勁的品類表現。但你得出了同樣的結論，那就是我們相信這些價格上漲將會持續下去，並且有一個很好的結構性理由這樣做。

This now concludes the question-and-answer session. Ms. Rendle, I would now like to turn the program back to you.

問答環節到此結束。倫德爾女士，我現在想把程序轉回給您。

Great. Thank you, everyone. We look forward to speaking with you again on our next call. And until then, please stay well.

偉大的。謝謝大家。我們期待在下次通話中再次與您交談。在那之前，請保持健康。

This concludes today's conference call. Thank you for attending.

今天的電話會議到此結束。感謝您的出席。