Clearfield Inc (CLFD) 2024 Q1 法說會逐字稿

Good day, and welcome to Clearfield's fiscal first-quarter 2024 conference call. (Operator Instructions)

美好的一天，歡迎參加 Clearfield 2024 年第一財季電話會議。（操作員說明）

As a reminder, this conference is being recorded. I would now like to turn the conference over to Greg McNiff, Investor Relations for Clearfield. Please go ahead.

提醒一下，本次會議正在錄製中。我現在想將會議交給克利爾菲爾德投資者關係部門的格雷格·麥克尼夫 (Greg McNiff)。請繼續。

Thank you. Joining me on the call today are Cheri Beranek, Clearfield's President and CEO; and Dan Herzog, Clearfield's CFO. (Operator Instructions)

謝謝。今天和我一起參加電話會議的是 Clearfield 總裁兼執行長 Cheri Beranek；以及 Clearfield 財務長 Dan Herzog。（操作員說明）

Please note that during this call, management will be making remarks regarding future events and the future financial performance of the company. These remarks constitute forward-looking statements for purposes of the Safe Harbor provisions of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act. These forward-looking statements are subject to risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results to differ materially from those expressed in the forward-looking statements.

請注意，在這次電話會議中，管理層將就未來事件和公司未來的財務表現發表評論。這些言論構成《私人證券訴訟改革法案》安全港條款中的前瞻性聲明。這些前瞻性陳述存在風險和不確定性，可能導致實際結果與前瞻性陳述中表達的結果有重大差異。

It is important to also note that the company undertakes no obligation to update such statements, except as required by law, The company cautions you to consider risk factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from those in the forward-looking statements contained in today's press release, earnings presentation, and on this conference call.

還需要注意的是，除法律要求外，本公司不承擔更新此類聲明的義務。本公司提醒您考慮可能導致實際結果與今天的前瞻性聲明中的結果存在重大差異的風險因素。新聞稿、收益報告以及本次電話會議。

The Risk Factors section in Clearfield's most recent Form 10-K filing with the Securities and Exchange Commission and its subsequent filings on Form 10-Q provide a description of these risks. They are also summarized on slide 2 of the earnings presentation.

Clearfield 最近向美國證券交易委員會提交的 10-K 表及其後續提交的 10-Q 表中的風險因素部分提供了這些風險的描述。在收益報告的投影片 2 中也對這些內容進行了總結。

With that, I would like to turn the call over to Clearfield's President and CEO, Cheri Beranek. Cheri?

說到這裡，我想將電話轉給 Clearfield 的總裁兼執行長 Cheri Beranek。切裡？

Good afternoon, everyone, and thank you for joining us today to discuss Clearfield's results for the fiscal first-quarter 2024. We also intend to provide an update on our business and current market trends.

大家下午好，感謝您今天加入我們討論 Clearfield 2024 年第一財季的表現。我們還打算提供有關我們業務和當前市場趨勢的最新資訊。

Please turn to slide 4. I noted last quarter that, while the industry is facing several near-term macroeconomic and seasonal headwinds, broadband service providers continue to deploy equipment and long-term demand remains as strong as ever. In the following slides, I will preview recently released market data that demonstrates this case, as well as the basis for our optimism regarding the long-term outlook.

請翻到幻燈片 4。我在上個季度指出，儘管該行業面臨一些近期宏觀經濟和季節性阻力，但寬頻服務供應商仍在繼續部署設備，長期需求仍然一如既往地強勁。在下面的幻燈片中，我將預覽最近發布的市場數據，這些數據證明了這一情況，以及我們對長期前景持樂觀態度的基礎。

Consistent with our optimism, Clearfield repurchased 436,000 of its shares for approximately $12 million in the first quarter ended December 31, 2023. Total net sales for the first quarter of fiscal 2024 were $34.2 million above the high end of our guidance range driven by higher-than-expected sales from our large regional service provider customers, due to their ordering of complementary products to support their inventory mix needed for current deployments.

與我們的樂觀情緒一致，Clearfield 在截至 2023 年 12 月 31 日的第一季以約 1,200 萬美元回購了 436,000 股股票。2024 財年第一季的淨銷售額總額比我們指導範圍的上限高出3,420 萬美元，這是由於我們的大型區域服務提供商客戶訂購了補充產品來支持其所需的庫存組合，銷售額高於預期。對於目前的部署。

Dan will discuss our financial results for the quarter in more detail shortly.

丹將很快更詳細地討論我們本季的財務表現。

While we continue to expect the next few quarters to remain challenging due to the inventory overhang across the industry, we remain focused of positioning Clearfield to take share when ordering patterns return to a more normalized cadence. To that end, we are expanding and enhancing our product portfolio in order to reduce the overall cost of fiber deployment by making the process as efficient as possible.

雖然我們仍然預計，由於整個行業的庫存過剩，未來幾季仍將充滿挑戰，但我們仍然專注於讓 Clearfield 在訂購模式恢復到更正常化的節奏時搶佔市場份額。為此，我們正在擴展和增強我們的產品組合，以便透過盡可能提高流程效率來降低光纖部署的整體成本。

We recently announced the addition of an innovative vaults to our current product portfolio, which is designed to reduce the cost of shipping and storage by approximately 67%. Feedback from our recently introduced, CraftSmart FiberFirst Pedestal; and also, the FieldSmart FiberFlex 2000 Cabinet designed to be installed in rural areas, has been exceptionally positive. Both products are now shipping and reflect another step toward our goal of providing our customers with alternative choices that continue to streamline hybrid deployments.

我們最近宣佈在我們目前的產品組合中增加一個創新的保險庫，旨在將運輸和儲存成本降低約 67%。來自我們最近推出的 CraftSmart FiberFirst Pedestal 的回饋；此外，專為安裝在鄉村地區而設計的 FieldSmart FiberFlex 2000 機櫃也取得了非常正面的效果。這兩款產品現已出貨，反映出我們朝著為客戶提供繼續簡化混合部署的替代方案的目標又邁出了一步。

In addition, we are working to ensure these products and all other personal product offerings will be compliant with Buy America Build America, known as BABA, as the bid awards are expected to translate to initial deployments near the end of this calendar year.

此外，我們正在努力確保這些產品和所有其他個人產品將符合 Buy America Build America（即 BABA）的要求，因為中標預計將在今年年底轉化為初步部署。

As shown on slide 5, recently published data from RBA, an independent research firm analyzing data in the North American fiber broadband industry, recently reported that the industry passed 9 million households in 2023, nearly a million more than the year before.

如投影片 5 所示，分析北美光纖寬頻產業數據的獨立研究公司 RBA 最近公佈的數據顯示，該產業到 2023 年將突破 900 萬戶家庭，比前一年增加近 100 萬戶。

Furthermore, this total included 3 million households, which already had access to one fiber service provider. The fact that approximately 35% of the households passed in 2023 already had access to one fiber provider conversion confirmed our view that the competitive landscape for broadband service is helping, and that our total addressable market is larger than a single fiber connection for each US household.

此外，這一總數還包括 300 萬個家庭，這些家庭已經接入了一家光纖服務提供者。到了2023 年，約35% 的家庭已經獲得單一光纖供應商的轉換，這一事實證實了我們的觀點，即寬頻服務的競爭格局正在發揮作用，而且我們的總潛在市場大於每個美國家庭的單一光纖連接。

As many of you know, the $42.5 billion BEAD program is now underway, with the [mass release] and the value of the monetary award divided per state.

正如你們許多人所知，價值 425 億美元的 BEAD 計劃目前正在進行中，[大規模發放]並且獎金的價值按州分配。

Slide 6 illustrates the relationship between the government and personal and service provider deployments. As you can see, the year is projected to be the largest disbursement year of government funding. However, we expect these funds to translate into deployments and revenue over the next several years.

投影片 6 說明了政府與個人和服務提供者部署之間的關係。正如您所看到的，今年預計將是政府資金支出最多的一年。然而，我們預計這些資金將在未來幾年轉化為部署和收入。

As illustrated on slide 7, industry forecasts from RVA indicate that the next five-year period, we'll see up to 12 million additional homes passed with fiber because of the federal funding initiatives. These programs will bring high-speed Internet access to unserved and underserved areas that will boost the forecasted total homes passed in the next five years in the US market to over 57 million homes.

如幻燈片 7 所示，RVA 的行業預測表明，在接下來的五年期間，由於聯邦資助計劃，我們將看到多達 1200 萬戶家庭使用光纖。這些計劃將為無服務和服務不足的地區帶來高速互聯網接入，從而使未來五年美國市場上的預計家庭數量增加到超過 5700 萬戶。

Coming back to Clearfield's performance, I would now like to pass the call over to our CFO, Dan Herzog, who will walk us through our financial results for the fiscal first quarter of 2024.

回到 Clearfield 的業績，我現在想將電話轉給我們的財務長 Dan Herzog，他將向我們介紹 2024 年第一財季的財務表現。

Thank you, Cheri, and good afternoon, everyone. Please turn to slide 9 to look at our fiscal first-quarter 2024 results in more detail.

謝謝你，Cheri，大家下午好。請到投影片 9，更詳細地了解我們 2024 年第一財季的表現。

Consolidated net sales in the first quarter of fiscal 2024 were $34.2 million, a 60% decrease from $85.9 million in the same year-ago period. The year-over-year decrease in total net sales was due to the ongoing industry dynamics that we commented on throughout the past year and that our peers in the marketplace have reported over the last several quarters.

2024 財年第一季合併淨銷售額為 3,420 萬美元，比去年同期的 8,590 萬美元下降 60%。總淨銷售額同比下降是由於我們在過去一年中評論的持續行業動態以及市場同行在過去幾個季度報告的結果。

We remain focused on reducing costs and improving margins at Nestor, by investing in more efficient manufacturing equipment and introducing higher-margin, plug-and-play connectivity product. We continue to be focused on labor utilization, as well as driving efficiencies for enhanced productivity in order to improve gross margins at all our manufacturing locations.

我們仍然致力於透過投資更有效率的製造設備和推出更高利潤的即插即用連接產品來降低 Nestor 的成本並提高利潤。我們繼續關注勞動力利用率，以及提高生產力的效率，以提高我們所有製造基地的毛利率。

Order backlog declined 68% to $43.5 million on December 31, 2023, from $57.3 million on September 30, 2023, and $136.3 million on December 31, 2022. As our visibility remains limited, we continue to collaborate with our customers to align their open orders with their deployment schedules.

積壓訂單從2023年9月30日的5,730萬美元和2022年12月31日的1.363億美元下降到2023年12月31日的4,350萬美元，下降68%。由於我們的可見性仍然有限，我們將繼續與客戶合作，使他們的未結訂單與其部署計劃保持一致。

As a reminder, the winter season is typically our lower order booking and revenue quarter. Our lead times are now less than four weeks across most product lines. We continue to expect backlog to become less of an indicator for future sales as most orders will be fulfilled within the quarter they are received.

提醒一下，冬季通常是我們訂單預訂和收入較低的季度。現在，我們大多數產品線的交貨時間都不到四個星期。我們仍然預計積壓訂單將不再是未來銷售的指標，因為大多數訂單將在收到的季度內完成。

Turning to slide 10, I will now review net sales by our key markets. Sales to our primary market, community broadband, comprised 36% of our net sales in the first quarter of fiscal 2024. In Q1, we generated net sales of approximately $12.3 million in community broadband, down 67% from the same period last year.

轉向幻燈片 10，我現在將回顧我們主要市場的淨銷售額。2024 財年第一季度，我們的主要市場－社區寬頻的銷售額佔淨銷售額的 36%。第一季度，我們的社區寬頻淨銷售額約為 1,230 萬美元，比去年同期下降 67%。

Net sales for the first quarter in our large regional service providers market were $7.9 million, comprising 23% of our total net sales. And declined by approximately 47% in the first quarter of this fiscal year versus the prior year first quarter.

我們的大型區域服務供應商市場第一季的淨銷售額為 790 萬美元，占我們總淨銷售額的 23%。本財年第一季與去年第一季相比下降了約 47%。

Net sales in our MSO business were at $5.2 million and comprise 15% of our net sales in the first quarter. Net sales declined by approximately 75% in the first quarter of this fiscal year versus the prior year first quarter.

我們的 MSO 業務淨銷售額為 520 萬美元，佔第一季淨銷售額的 15%。本財年第一季的淨銷售額與去年第一季相比下降了約 75%。

Net sales in our national carrier market for the first quarter decreased to $1.3 million, accounting for 4% of total net sales and declined by approximately 48% in the first quarter of this fiscal year versus the prior year first quarter.

第一季我們全國營運商市場的淨銷售額下降至 130 萬美元，佔總淨銷售額的 4%，與去年第一季相比下降了約 48%。

Finally, net sales in our international market were $6.7 million, and comprised 19% of total net sales in the first quarter. Net sales in this market decreased by approximately 35% in the first quarter of fiscal 2024 versus the prior year first quarter.

最後，我們國際市場的淨銷售額為 670 萬美元，佔第一季總淨銷售額的 19%。2024 財年第一季度，該市場的淨銷售額與去年第一季相比下降了約 35%。

As detailed on slide 11, gross profit margin in the first quarter declined to 13.7% of net sales from 35.7% of net sales in the same year-ago quarter. Our gross margin continues to be impacted by unabsorbed overhead at our manufacturing facilities due to lower levels of demand and winter seasonality. The company continues to adjust its production capacity to align to current demand and market conditions.

如投影片 11 所示，第一季毛利率從去年同期淨銷售額的 35.7% 下降至淨銷售額的 13.7%。由於需求水準較低和冬季季節性，我們的毛利率繼續受到製造設施未吸收管理費用的影響。該公司不斷調整產能，以適應當前需求和市場狀況。

In addition, gross margin was negatively impacted by an increase in reserves for excess inventory, primarily resulting from below in demand. We continue to expect revenue and gross margins in the first half of fiscal 2024 to be impacted by the continued inventory digestion at our customers, as well as normal seasonality. As we enter the build season in the second half of fiscal 2024, we anticipate an uptick in demand, which should lead to an increase in capacity utilization that should result in an improvement in gross margins.

此外，毛利率受到過剩庫存儲備增加的負面影響，這主要是由於需求不足造成的。我們仍預期 2024 財年上半年的營收和毛利率將受到客戶持續消化庫存以及正常季節性的影響。隨著我們進入 2024 財年下半年的建造季節，我們預計需求將會上升，這應該會導致產能利用率的增加，從而導致毛利率的改善。

We continue to work to uphold price discipline as well, while also ensuring the preservation of our long-term customer relationships. Moving forward, we will remain thoughtful in how we address pricing with our customers.

我們也將繼續努力維持價格紀律，同時確保維繫我們的長期客戶關係。展望未來，我們將在如何與客戶解決定價問題上保持深思熟慮。

Now please turn to slide 12. Operating expenses for the first quarter were $12.9 million, which were consistent with $12.8 million in the same year-ago quarter. The company remains committed to servicing its customer base and enhancing its long-term market position, as seen by the consistency in year-over-year expense, which reflects our continued investment in our operations.

現在請翻到投影片 12。第一季營運費用為 1,290 萬美元，與去年同期的 1,280 萬美元持平。該公司仍然致力於服務其客戶群並增強其長期市場地位，從同比支出的一致性可以看出，這反映了我們對營運的持續投資。

As a percentage of net sales, operating expenses for the first quarter were 37.6%, up from 14.8% in the same year-ago period due to lower sales volumes.

由於銷售量下降，第一季營運費用佔淨銷售額的比例為 37.6%，高於去年同期的 14.8%。

Turning to slide 13, net loss in the first quarter was $5.3 million, compared to net income of $14.3 million in the same year-ago period, and net income of $2.7 million in the fourth quarter of fiscal 2023. Our net income is heavily affected by our reduced volume levels, which in turn results in lower gross profit percentage.

轉向投影片 13，第一季淨虧損為 530 萬美元，而去年同期淨利為 1,430 萬美元，2023 財年第四季淨利為 270 萬美元。我們的淨利潤受到銷量水準下降的嚴重影響，進而導致毛利率下降。

As illustrated on slide 14, our balance sheet remains strong with $169 million of cash, short-term and long-term investments, and just $2 million of debt. We had $2.4 million in capital expenditures in the quarter, mainly to support our manufacturing operations. Our inventory balance decreased from $98.1 million at fiscal 2023 year end to $94.6 million in the first quarter of fiscal 2024.

如投影片 14 所示，我們的資產負債表依然強勁，擁有 1.69 億美元的現金、短期和長期投資，以及僅 200 萬美元的債務。本季我們的資本支出為 240 萬美元，主要用於支持我們的製造業務。我們的庫存餘額從 2023 財年末的 9,810 萬美元減少到 2024 財年第一季的 9,460 萬美元。

Our cash, short-term, and long-term investments reflect the reduction of just $5 million from September 30, even though a $12 million was used for the repurchase of shares in the first quarter. We recorded a cash flow from operations of positive $7.8 million in the quarter.

儘管第一季使用了 1,200 萬美元用於回購股票，但我們的現金、短期和長期投資自 9 月 30 日起僅減少了 500 萬美元。本季我們的營運現金流為 780 萬美元。

Our strong balance sheet ensures that we are well positioned to effectively compete for larger customer opportunities and to pursue strategic opportunities to enhance our market and product portfolio. Likewise, our strong cash balance positions us to manage the business for the long term, and through our share repurchase program, reinvest for the long term.

我們強大的資產負債表確保我們能夠有效競爭更大的客戶機會，並尋求策略機會來增強我們的市場和產品組合。同樣，我們強大的現金餘額使我們能夠長期管理業務，並透過我們的股票回購計劃進行長期再投資。

Please turn to slide 15. Due to limited visibility related to the reasons we've discussed over the last several quarters, we will continue to provide quarterly guidance. We anticipate the second quarter of fiscal 2024 net sales to be in the range of $29 million to $33 million. We expect to generate a net loss per share in the range of $0.49 to $0.55.

請翻到投影片 15。由於與我們過去幾個季度討論的原因相關的可見性有限，我們將繼續提供季度指導。我們預計 2024 財年第二季的淨銷售額將在 2,900 萬美元至 3,300 萬美元之間。我們預計每股淨虧損在 0.49 美元至 0.55 美元之間。

This increased loss over the prior quarter is due to increased inventory reserves for excess inventory, primarily resulting from the lull in demand. This loss per share range is based on the number of shares outstanding at the end of the first quarter, and does not reflect share repurchases in the second quarter.

虧損較上一季增加是由於庫存過剩的庫存儲備增加，而這主要是由於需求低迷造成的。這一每股虧損範圍是根據第一季末已發行股票數量計算的，並不反映第二季的股票回購情況。

As I indicated earlier, we repurchased $12 million in stock as part of our share buyback program in the first quarter, which represented 436,000 shares at an average price of $27.69, leaving approximately $21 million available for additional repurchases. The significance of our buyback underscores our clear and proactive commitment, as we believe in the enduring strength and potential of our company and this market.

正如我之前指出的，作為第一季股票回購計畫的一部分，我們回購了 1,200 萬美元的股票，相當於 436,000 股，平均價格為 27.69 美元，剩下約 2,100 萬美元可用於額外回購。我們回購的重要性凸顯了我們明確和積極的承諾，因為我們相信我們公司和這個市場的持久實力和潛力。

In the coming quarters, we will continue to make thoughtful and strategic decisions regarding share repurchases, driven by our strong conviction that our current share price is not reflective of our long-term opportunity. That concludes my prepared remarks for our fiscal first-quarter 2024. We appreciate the support of our investors, as we continue to work to drive shareholder value.

在未來幾個季度，我們將繼續就股票回購做出深思熟慮的策略決策，我們堅信目前的股價並不能反映我們的長期機會。我為 2024 年第一財季準備的演講到此結束。我們感謝投資者的支持，我們將繼續努力提高股東價值。

I will now turn the call back over to Cheri.

我現在將把電話轉回給 Cheri。

Thanks for the financial update. Then turning to slide 17, I would now like to provide a brief update on our multi-year strategic plan, which we have labeled, LEAP. LEAP is our road map for how we intend to capitalize on the significant opportunities ahead when industry demand returns to a more normalized cadence.

感謝您提供財務更新。然後轉向投影片 17，我現在想簡要介紹我們的多年策略計劃，我們將其標記為「LEAP」。LEAP 是我們的路線圖，說明當產業需求恢復到更正常化的節奏時，我們打算如何利用未來的重大機會。

Over the last 12 months, Clearfield's performance has been negatively affected by a misalignment between our capacity and market needs. We view this mismatch between supply and demand as a temporary challenge that we have addressed through reductions in variable costs, yet, we must and will continue to execute at the highest level.

在過去 12 個月中，Clearfield 的業績因產能與市場需求之間的不一致而受到負面影響。我們將供需之間的不匹配視為暫時的挑戰，我們已經透過降低變動成本解決了這個問題，但我們必須並將繼續以最高水準執行。

Rural broadband is in our DNA, and the reason we are the leading provider to this customer segment. As I highlighted earlier, we're not sitting still, rather, we continue to develop new labor-saving products and align our sales and support staff to the markets where fiber is being deployed.

農村寬頻已融入我們的 DNA，這也是我們成為該客戶群領先供應商的原因。正如我之前強調的，我們不會坐以待斃，而是繼續開發新的節省勞動力的產品，並使我們的銷售和支援人員適應部署光纖的市場。

Expect more product announcements to come highlighting these attributes. Listening to our customers and then delivering to their needs is the foundation, upon which our North American business was built. Recently, we hired an executive with significant connectivity experience for our European operations who will work alongside our existing European team to lead our initiative to cross-sell expansion of Clearfield's connectivity products.

預計會有更多產品發布來強調這些屬性。傾聽客戶的聲音並滿足他們的需求是我們北美業務建立的基礎。最近，我們聘請了一位在歐洲業務方面擁有豐富連接經驗的高管，他將與我們現有的歐洲團隊合作，領導我們交叉銷售擴張 Clearfield 連接產品的計劃。

We have also recently hired a senior level operations executive to lead our North American manufacturing and procurement program, as part of our ongoing operational initiatives to drive cost reduction, align capacity to near-term demand, and to convert inventory to cash. In addition of this bench strength to Clearfield's sales management team is an investment that will accelerate our ability to deliver strong earnings, as market dynamics return to a more normalized pattern.

我們最近還聘請了一位高級營運主管來領導我們的北美製造和採購計劃，作為我們持續營運計劃的一部分，以推動成本降低、根據近期需求調整產能以及將庫存轉化為現金。除了對 Clearfield 銷售管理團隊的這種後備力量之外，隨著市場動態恢復到更正常化的模式，這將加快我們實現強勁盈利的能力。

Although near-term industry dynamics remain challenging, we also remain confident that the future growth in fiber is absolute and the value proposition that Clearfield brings to the market is as strong as ever.

儘管近期的行業動態仍然充滿挑戰，但我們仍然相信纖維的未來成長是絕對的，而 Clearfield 為市場帶來的價值主張一如既往地強大。

And with that, we will open the call to your questions.

接下來，我們將開始電話詢問您的問題。

(Operator Instructions) Scott Searle, ROTH.

（操作員說明）Scott Searle，ROTH。

Good afternoon. Thanks for taking my questions. Cheri, maybe just to dive in terms of some of the government funding earlier in the week. Calix was indicating that there had been some delays in deployments, as customers were evaluating the BEAD programs. I'm wondering if you could comment on that, if you're seeing a similar type of slowdown with your customers?

午安.感謝您回答我的問題。Cheri，也許只是為了在本週早些時候獲得一些政府資金。Calix 表示，由於客戶正在評估 BEAD 計劃，因此部署出現了一些延遲。我想知道您是否可以對此發表評論，如果您看到客戶出現類似的放緩情況？

And then also, more specifically, in some of the BEAD program's funding and award themselves, I appreciate the detail in the slides, but when do you expect to see awards to start to happen? And when would you expect those to materialize in orders benefiting Clearfield? Is that still on track for the first calendar quarter of '25? Or is there the potential for some of this to slip?

然後，更具體地說，在 BEAD 計劃的一些資助和獎勵本身中，我很欣賞幻燈片中的細節，但您預計什麼時候會開始頒獎？您預計這些何時會在使克利爾菲爾德受益的訂單中實現？25 年第一季的情況是否仍按計畫進行？或者其中一些有可能發生下滑嗎？

Yeah. Hi, Scott. Listening to the Calix world, I mean, that's really consistent with our world, and really probably consistent with what we've been saying for a couple of quarters now that as people put together their plans and their engineering directives and how it relates to what's coming with speed, there needs to be a choice. And so there has been less revenue, less activity than one might expect.

是的。嗨，斯科特。我的意思是，聽聽Calix 世界的說法，這確實與我們的世界一致，而且很可能與我們幾個季度以來所說的一致，因為人們將他們的計劃和工程指令放在一起，以及它與現實的關係。隨著速度的到來，需要有一個選擇。因此，收入和活動都比人們預期的要少。

There are only so many engineering companies to go around. And so their engineering for potential bid awards are not necessarily for deployments this year. And we have also talked about that the balance sheet needs to be in a good place for when they go after the BEAD funding, because they're competing with others, and there's a level of financial match that's necessary as well.

可供選擇的工程公司就這麼多。因此，他們的潛在投標工程不一定適合今年的部署。我們也談到，當他們尋求 BEAD 資金時，資產負債表需要處於一個良好的位置，因為他們正在與其他人競爭，而且一定程度的財務匹配也是必要的。

Yeah. It really doesn't change our outlook that the BEAD initiatives will start to see being rolled out now in late '24. And consistent with what we've said in the past and what Calix has said, is that's meaningful in '25 and for the next three to five years, as those programs are put into place.

是的。BEAD 計畫將於 2024 年底開始推出，這確實不會改變我們的前景。與我們過去所說的和 Calix 所說的一致，隨著這些計劃的實施，這在 25 年以及未來三到五年內是有意義的。

The one thing that I want to make sure that we talk through though as well, is when you look at one of the slides, you look really in this presentation, is that the number of homes passed in the next five years even without BEAD is going to be close to 35% higher than it was in the previous five years. It's just really a timing of the quarters and how we can put this all together. So I'm not anticipating that BEAD is going to slip as much as I think it is that's disciplined manner of getting everyone's back together.

我想確保我們討論過的一件事是，當你看其中一張幻燈片時，你會真正看到這個演示文稿，即使沒有 BEAD，未來五年內通過的房屋數量是比前五年高出近35%。這實際上只是季度的時間安排以及我們如何將這一切整合在一起。所以我並不認為 BEAD 會像我想像的那樣下滑，這是讓每個人重新團結在一起的一種有紀律的方式。

Okay. Very helpful. And if I could for a follow-up, looking into your guidance into the March quarter, a couple of items. I'm wondering if you could quantify the inventory charge. It looks like it's probably somewhere in the $2 million-plus range. Just wanted to get a handle on that.

好的。很有幫助。如果可以的話，我可以跟進您對三月季度的指導，其中有幾個項目。我想知道你是否可以量化庫存費用。看起來它的價格可能在 200 萬美元以上。只是想掌握這個問題。

And in terms of March sales outlook, are you comfortable that this is marking the bottom and we should see sequential improvement through the course of this year? And I know it's a little bit early, but I'm wondering what's the timeline that you would expect, quote-unquote, normalization of your revenue stream, where demand is -- your shipments are more in line with end-market demand? Thanks.

就三月的銷售前景而言，您是否認為這標誌著觸底，我們應該看到今年的連續改善？我知道現在有點早，但我想知道您期望的時間表是什麼，您的收入流正常化，需求在哪裡 - 您的出貨量更符合終端市場的需求？謝謝。

Right. I'll take the second half and I'll have on Dan talk to the inventory reserves.

正確的。下半場我將請丹談談庫存儲備。

But yeah, as we look at the quarter in March, it's still the winter seasonality. And so, beyond the BEAD program and beyond the issues associated with the inventory overhang, we are going through winter issues. Although it doesn't look like it, here in Minnesota, it's 50 degrees today in and not any snow. So we're actually hopeful that we might get a -- with so much warm weather across the country, that we might get an early spring and early build.

但是，是的，當我們看三月這個季度時，它仍然是冬季季節性。因此，除了 BEAD 計劃以及與庫存過剩相關的問題之外，我們正在經歷冬季問題。雖然看起來不像，但在明尼蘇達州，今天氣溫為 50 度，而且沒有下雪。因此，我們實際上希望，在全國各地天氣如此溫暖的情況下，我們可能會在早春和早建。

And that, I think, is one of the factors that I think we're going to see -- the March quarter would be my expectation that it will be part of that -- it'll become the bottom of our U.

我認為，這是我們將看到的因素之一——我預計三月季度將是其中的一部分——它將成為我們美國經濟的底部。

I've talked previously about it, a U-shaped recovery. And I think we're going to start to see more of a normalized world and a normalized pattern closer to this -- we're still in this winter and book pulling down the backlog right now, but we'll see closer to that one-to-one book-to-bill ratio that we were famous for, as we get into the summer months. And we expect our revenues to increase.

我之前講過，U型復甦。我認為我們將開始看到更多的正常化世界和更接近這一點的正常化模式——我們仍然處於這個冬天，並且現在正在減少積壓的訂單，但我們會看到更接近那個模式當我們進入夏季時，我們以一比一的圖書出貨比而聞名。我們預計我們的收入將會增加。

We just don't have a forecast at this point to what level. Dan, do you want to address inventory?

我們目前還沒有預測到什麼水準。丹，你想解決庫存問題嗎？

Right. Yes, Scott, hi. So we've tried to conservatively estimate that it's somewhere in the area of like about $5.5 million for the upcoming quarter. Those are hard to estimate. You've got to get through the quarter and see what we released in the quarter.

正確的。是的，斯科特，嗨。因此，我們嘗試保守估計下一季的營收約為 550 萬美元。這些都很難估計。您必須度過這個季度並了解我們在本季發布的內容。

So that's an estimation right now. Clearly, those things are going to be prevalent in the market. We probably hear more people talking about that. But as people are stocked up for longer-term demand, but we have to get through this pause and everybody else reducing their inventories, you're going to probably see this more.

這就是現在的估計。顯然，這些東西將在市場上流行。我們可能會聽到更多人談論這一點。但隨著人們為長期需求儲備庫存，但我們必須度過這個暫停期，並且其他人都在減少庫存，你可能會看到更多這種情況。

So we can look at people's inventory to their revenue numbers. You can anticipate those things are going to happen. So it's important to note that these aren't things that were obsoleting. These are not things that we're putting in the dumpster.

因此，我們可以根據人們的收入數據來查看庫存。你可以預見這些事情將會發生。因此，值得注意的是，這些並不是已經過時的東西。這些不是我們要丟進垃圾箱的東西。

The words that we're using around this is reserves and it's on excess inventory, meaning, we just have too much of what we make. We don't stock up a lot on finished goods. We're pretty much doing components or subassemblies that will eventually go to those finished goods. But we are not -- this, to us, looks -- it's like a non-cash charge that we expect that when markets return and demand returns will be used.

我們在這方面使用的詞是儲備，它是關於過剩庫存，這意味著我們製造的東西太多了。我們沒有大量庫存成品。我們幾乎正在生產最終將成為成品的組件或子組件。但我們並不是——在我們看來——這就像我們預計當市場回歸和需求回報時將使用的非現金費用。

And at that point in time, you get recoveries back on those and it actually helps improve your reserve. So I'm looking at this as a timing thing.

到了那個時候，你就會得到恢復，這實際上有助於提高你的儲備。所以我認為這是一個時機問題。

Great. Thanks. I'll get back in the queue. And, Cheri, please send that warm weather to the East.

偉大的。謝謝。我會回到隊列中。還有，Cheri，請把溫暖的天氣送到東方。

No. (laughter)

不。（笑聲）

Thank you. (laughter)

謝謝。（笑聲）

Ryan Koontz, Needham & Company.

瑞恩‧孔茨 (Ryan Koontz)，李約瑟公司。

Thanks for the question. On your customer segments here, with the step down in Community Broadband, it's definitely a multiyear, low pre-pandemic. I'm wondering if you thought about -- if you parsed out the results you had in December and thought forward at least into March, what the impact -- what the headwind is there specifically in community broadband? Is it dominantly inventory? Is it dominantly conservation of capital and resources to plan for BEAD? If you can help us there, that would be really helpful. Thank you.

謝謝你的提問。對於您這裡的客戶群，隨著社區寬頻的下降，這絕對是一個多年的、大流行前的低水平。我想知道您是否考慮過——如果您分析了 12 月份的結果並至少展望到 3 月份，那麼影響是什麼——社區寬頻方面具體存在哪些阻力？是庫存占主導地位嗎？規劃BEAD 是否主要是為了節省金錢和資源？如果您能幫助我們，那將非常有幫助。謝謝。

I think it's a combination of all of the above. I mean, mostly community broadband did not have a strong inventory position. The higher level of inventory being held is at the large regional providers. And so with those regional providers now starting to work through their mix, that's actually a really positive sign for us.

我認為這是以上所有內容的組合。我的意思是，大多數社區寬頻沒有強大的庫存狀況。大型區域供應商的庫存水準較高。因此，隨著這些區域提供者現在開始進行組合工作，這對我們來說實際上是一個非常積極的信號。

I think the community broadband numbers are very relative to what others in the industry -- as Scott said from Ross, the Calix announcements earlier this week, it is very consistent. Community broadband is some holding back, evaluating what they're going to do, making sure they have the right funding and they are going to be able to have their engineers in the right place for where they get their funding and where they don't. So I mean, those of us who've been in this market for a long time know that government funding is fabulous, but it also is frustrating.

我認為社區寬頻數據與業內其他公司的數據非常相關——正如斯科特在羅斯、Calix 本週早些時候發布的聲明中所說，這是非常一致的。社區寬頻是一些阻礙，評估他們將要做什麼，確保他們有合適的資金，並且他們能夠讓他們的工程師在正確的地方，無論他們在哪裡獲得資金，在哪裡沒有資金。所以我的意思是，我們這些在這個市場工作了很長時間的人都知道政府的資助是巨大的，但它也令人沮喪。

Because back in 2008 when we probably got -- the previous time that we get a chunk of money into this market, it put a lull in our business for probably close to nine months. And so this is no different. So we're confident it'll come back. It is just a reflection of people evaluating their options.

因為早在 2008 年，上一次我們向這個市場投入大量資金時，我們的業務就陷入了近九個月的停滯。所以這沒有什麼不同。所以我們有信心它會回來。這只是人們評估他們的選擇的反映。

Great. And it sounds like from your comment there, the regionals, you're seeing some improvement in the inventory situation at your regionals and a little more pull. Is that accurate?

偉大的。從您對地區的評論來看，您看到地區的庫存狀況有所改善，並且有更多的拉力。準確嗎？

Right. The standpoint of the analogy I've used, I think, is very descriptive. It's forks to knives. They've got all the forks they need.

正確的。我認為我所使用的類比的立場非常具有描述性。這是從叉子到刀子。他們擁有所需的所有叉子。

Now they're finding out they need more knives. And so that's a really good sign that it's starting to work itself out and they made estimates upon what they're going to need. They made estimates in regard to the mix of what they're going to need. So it is definitely starting to improve.

現在他們發現他們需要更多的刀。所以這是一個非常好的跡象，表明它開始自行解決，並且他們對他們將需要什麼進行了估計。他們對他們需要的東西的組合進行了估計。所以它肯定開始改善。

And I think it's important to note that we did have a record high in the number of homes passed last year. And so this disconnect between the number of homes actually connected and the number of the dollar signs being shown by the manufacturers is a mismatch at the moment. I think that's really the best reflection or answer to your question three.

我認為值得注意的是，去年我們通過的房屋數量確實創下了歷史新高。因此，目前實際連接的家庭數量與製造商顯示的美元符號數量之間的脫節是不匹配的。我認為這確實是對你的問題三的最好的反映或答案。

Great. That's all I have.

偉大的。這就是我的全部。

Tim Savageaux, Northland Capital Markets.

Tim Savageaux，北國資本市場。

Hi, good afternoon. I think you might have touched on this a little bit, but I did note a little uptick at least sequentially amongst the larger regional players. And I guess as you look forward your guide for fiscal Q2 or even farther out, I guess what do you expect to see from that cohort? And is there any reason that that would diverge from what you're seeing from your broader community broadband market? And I'll follow up from there.

嗨，下午好。我認為您可能已經觸及了這一點，但我確實注意到較大的區域參與者至少連續出現了一些上升。我想，當您期待第二財季甚至更遠的財年指南時，我想您希望從該群體中看到什麼？是否有任何原因導致這與您在更廣泛的社區寬頻市場中看到的情況有所不同？我將從那裡跟進。

I wouldn't call it diverge. I mean, I think what we're seeing is Clearfield has been strong for a decade in community broadband but is emerging as a presence in the large regional providers and that we took share during the pandemic period. We're working very hard during that time and now to assure the stickiness of that relationship, the partnering that we're doing to help them manage their inventory to help them reduce the cost of their deployment by taking out labor.

我不會稱之為分歧。我的意思是，我認為我們看到的是，Clearfield 在社區寬頻領域十年來一直表現強勁，但正在成為大型區域提供者的存在，並且我們在大流行期間佔據了份額。我們在那段時間和現在都非常努力地工作，以確保這種關係的黏性，我們正在進行的合作是為了幫助他們管理庫存，透過減少勞動力來幫助他們降低部署成本。

So I think it will be an increasing part of our business, but it could be lumpy because you get an order from a large regional provider that can dwarf some of the other business and maybe put it out of perspective. So I wouldn't read into a single quarter at this point in time, but I think it's good for all of us to see that level of activity underway and the pull through that we're starting to see.

因此，我認為這將成為我們業務中越來越重要的一部分，但它可能會很不穩定，因為你從一家大型區域供應商那裡收到訂單，這可能會讓其他一些業務相形見絀，甚至可能使其無法被人重視。因此，我目前不會對單一季度進行解讀，但我認為看到正在進行的活動水平以及我們開始看到的拉動對我們所有人都有好處。

Okay, great. And obviously, I think we saw a seasonal downturn on the international side. I imagine that will -- do you expect that to continue to decline into Q2 or (multiple speakers)

好的，太好了。顯然，我認為我們看到了國際方面的季節性低迷。我想這會——你預計第二季會繼續下降嗎？（多個發言者）

I apologize for interrupting, Tim. Very seasonal and it's very cold in Northern Europe, but even colder than a normal year. So winter started very early as well. So the first quarter down in international sales is very seasonal and I fully expect that to be a better number next quarter.

我很抱歉打擾了，提姆。季節性很強，北歐非常寒冷，但比正常年份還要冷。所以冬天也來得早。因此，第一季國際銷售額的下降是非常季節性的，我完全預計下個季度的數字會更好。

Okay. And last one for me, and you may have touched on this, and apologies if you did, but given the bottom-line guide, I'm assuming you're looking for a little more pressure on the gross margin trend in Q2. But if you have any specifics you want to share there, that would be great. Thanks.

好的。我的最後一個問題，您可能已經談到了這一點，如果您這樣做了，我們深表歉意，但考慮到底線指南，我假設您正在尋找第二季度毛利率趨勢的更大壓力。但如果您有任何具體資訊想在那裡分享，那就太好了。謝謝。

Yes, that's consistent with where we finished, our Q1 in revenue. So we're not forecasting going up on that. So you've seen it slightly lower, the range that we provided. So that's there.

是的，這與我們第一季的營收情況一致。因此，我們預計這一數字不會上升。所以你已經看到我們提供的範圍略低了。就這樣。

And then it's predominantly related to the non-cash inventory reserves that we've taken. So like I mentioned to Scott like $5.5 million on that. So that puts pressure on us.

然後它主要與我們持有的非現金庫存儲備有關。就像我向史考特提到的那樣，大約需要 550 萬美元。所以這給我們帶來了壓力。

Obviously, the lower volume is there. That's just going to be a given anytime that were, let's say, below our higher revenue quarters. So that's a given. But the big change is related to the excess inventory reserves and that's what pushes the margin down.

顯然，音量較低。比方說，低於我們較高收入季度的任何時候，這都是一個給定的情況。所以這是給定的。但巨大的變化與過剩的庫存儲備有關，這就是壓低利潤率的原因。

Got it. Thanks very much.

知道了。非常感謝。

(Operator Instructions) Jaeson Schmidt, Lake Street.

（操作員指示）Jaeson Schmidt，湖街。

Hi, guys. Thanks for taking my questions. Just a few questions on Nestor. I think previously, there is the expectation for the Nestor business to be able to ramp to that $15 million range in the summer months. Is that still possible?

嗨，大家好。感謝您回答我的問題。只是有幾個關於內斯特的問題。我認為之前，Nestor 的業務預計能夠在夏季增長到 1500 萬美元的範圍。這還有可能嗎？

We're not providing guidance that far out. And so I'd say there is an opportunity in that we're building a company to be able to address that, and we're building capacity to address that.

我們不會提供那麼遠的指導。所以我想說，我們有機會建立一家能夠解決這個問題的公司，並且我們正在建立解決這個問題的能力。

One of the enhancements that we've made over the course of the last year is the expansion of the amount of microduct that we're able to provide. And what's exciting about microduct, not only that it increases the revenue and increases the margin, but it also is a precursor to future connectivity sales. So it gives you an early indicator.

去年我們所做的改進之一是擴大了我們能夠提供的微導管的數量。微管的令人興奮之處不僅在於它增加了收入和利潤，而且它還是未來連接銷售的先兆。所以它為您提供了一個早期指標。

And the addition of resources there for connectivity, someone who has a strong background in connectivity and understands the differences and nuances of the types of connectivity solutions that are necessary certainly will help us pull that through. I say don't get -- again, it's more of a trend line there, I think, for us rather than a specific target for the summer months, and because of the fact that the Rocky Nestor, the lumpiness of their seasonality of $15 million is possible, but not a forecast from us.

增加連接資源，擁有強大連接背景並了解必要連接解決方案類型的差異和細微差別的人肯定會幫助我們實現這一目標。我再說一遍，我認為這對我們來說更像是一條趨勢線，而不是夏季的具體目標，而且因為洛基內斯特 (Rocky Nestor) 的季節性波動性為 15 美元百萬是可能的，但不是我們的預測。

Okay. That's fair. And then can you update us on the timeline on where you're at from being able to manufacture the Nestor product line in the Mexico facility?

好的。這還算公平。那麼您能否向我們介紹一下您在墨西哥工廠能夠生產 Nestor 產品線的最新時間表？

We're already doing that. And so the only issue we have is the availability of PVDF materials. And so we are fully manufacturing in Mexico with the Nestor product types. Mostly what we -- I think it's important though there is that we're not intending to manufacture high-count fiber for the US market. That tends to be a commodity-level product line.

我們已經在這樣做了。因此，我們面臨的唯一問題是 PVDF 材料的可用性。因此，我們完全在墨西哥生產 Nestor 產品類型。主要是我們 - 我認為重要的是我們不打算為美國市場生產高支纖維。這往往是商品級的產品線。

And so we aren't going to make the capital equipment investment for that. But certainly, all of the products that Nestor made for Clearfield we are able to do in the Mexico facility, and we'll be able to do with the expansion of our manufacturing lines and the new cable lines that we're putting into one of our Brooklyn Park facilities. We'll be able to do all of the previously Nestor-supplied equipment in Minnesota as well.

因此，我們不會為此進行資本設備投資。但當然，Nestor 為 Clearfield 製造的所有產品，我們都能夠在墨西哥工廠生產，並且我們將能夠通過擴大我們的生產線和我們正在投入其中之一的新電纜線來生產。我們的布魯克林公園設施。我們也將能夠在明尼蘇達州生產以前 Nestor 提供的所有設備。

Okay, perfect. Thanks a lot, guys.

好的，完美。非常感謝，夥計們。

There are no further questions in the queue. I'd like to hand the call back management for closing remarks.

隊列中沒有其他問題。我想請回電管理人員作結語。

Thanks for the opportunity to spend some time with you all at this period of time and to really help to provide, I think, some insight behind a long-term investment opportunity. We are at an amazing time right now in the US market and the brink of really becoming a fiber-rich country and the opportunities that that presents for us and the economy that it will build is certainly a strong one. Clearfield's opportunity here remains the same. Our value proposition is exactly built for this time, and I welcome the opportunity for you to join me in recognizing some of the benefit that fiber is going to provide. And hopefully you see that and want to participate in that as being a shareholder of Clearfield.

感謝您有機會在這段時間與大家共度時光，並真正幫助提供長期投資機會背後的一些見解。美國市場目前正處於一個令人驚奇的時刻，即將真正成為一個纖維豐富的國家，這為我們及其將要建立的經濟帶來的機會無疑是一個強大的機會。克利爾菲爾德在這裡的機會保持不變。我們的價值主張正是針對這個時代而建立的，我歡迎您有機會與我一起認識到纖維將提供的一些好處。希望您看到這一點並希望作為 Clearfield 的股東參與其中。

Ladies and gentlemen, this does conclude today's teleconference. Thank you for your participation. You may disconnect your lines at this time and have a wonderful day.

女士們、先生們，今天的電話會議到此結束。感謝您的參與。此時您可以斷開線路並度過美好的一天。