Cleveland-Cliffs Inc (CLF) 2022 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Good morning, ladies and gentlemen. My name is Maria, and I am your conference facilitator today. I would like to welcome everyone to Cleveland-Cliffs Full Year and Fourth Quarter 2022 Earnings Conference Call. (Operator Instructions)

女士們、先生們，早安。我叫瑪麗亞，今天我是你們的會議主持人。歡迎大家參加克里夫蘭-克利夫斯 2022 年全年和第四季財報電話會議。 （操作員指令）

The company reminds you that certain comments made on today's call will include predictive statements that are intended to be made as forward-looking within the safe harbor protection of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. Although the company believes that its forward-looking statements are based on reasonable assumptions, such statements are subject to risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results to differ materially. Important factors that could cause results to differ materially are set forth in reports on Forms 10-K and 10-Q, and news releases filed with the SEC, which are available on the company's website.

該公司提醒您，今天電話會議上發表的某些評論將包括預測性陳述，這些陳述旨在在《1995 年私人證券訴訟改革法》的安全港保護範圍內作為前瞻性陳述。前瞻性陳述基於合理的假設，此類陳述受風險和不確定性的影響，可能導致實際結果有重大差異。可能導致結果出現重大差異的重要因素已在提交給美國證券交易委員會的 10-K 表和 10-Q 表報告以及新聞稿中列出，可在公司網站上查閱。

Today's conference call is also available and being broadcast at clevelandcliffs.com. At the conclusion of the call, it will be archived on the website and available for replay.

今天的電話會議也可以在 clevelandcliffs.com 上收聽和播出。通話結束後，內容將存檔在網站上並可供重播。

The company will also discuss results excluding certain special items. Reconciliation for Regulation G purposes can be found in the earnings release, which was published yesterday.

該公司還將討論不包括某些特殊項目的業績。在昨天發布的收益報告中可以找到有關 G 規則目的的對帳表。

At this time, I would like to introduce Celso Goncalves, Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer. Please go ahead, sir.

現在，我想介紹執行副總裁兼財務長 Celso Goncalves。先生，請繼續。

Thank you, Maria, and thanks to everyone for joining us this morning. 2022 was the 175th year for Cleveland-Cliffs, and we celebrated this milestone by generating record revenues of $23 billion. From a profitability standpoint, our adjusted EBITDA of $3.2 billion and free cash flow of $1.5 billion were each the second highest in company history, only exceeded by 2021.

謝謝你，瑪麗亞，也謝謝大家今天早上加入我們。 2022 年是克里夫蘭-克利夫斯成立 175 週年，我們以創紀錄的 230 億美元收入慶祝這一里程碑。從獲利能力的角度來看，我們的調整後 EBITDA 為 32 億美元，自由現金流為 15 億美元，均為公司歷史上第二高，僅 2021 年超過。

That said, our most significant financial accomplishment in 2022 was the dramatic improvement to our balance sheet, where we eliminated over $3 billion in liabilities via debt paydown and pension and OPEB obligation reductions. I have been clear since day 1 that derisking the balance sheet is my top priority, and we will remain consistent in deploying the majority of free cash flow toward debt repayment.

話雖如此，我們在 2022 年最重要的財務成就是資產負債表的顯著改善，我們透過償還債務、減少退休金和 OPEB 義務消除了超過 30 億美元的負債。從第一天起，我就明確表示，降低資產負債表的風險是我的首要任務，我們將一致地將大部分自由現金流用於償還債務。

In 2022, Cliffs' average selling price for steel increased by almost $200 per ton despite index hot-rolled prices dropping around $600 per ton year-over-year. This was the primary driver of our record revenues and a testament to the improvements in the fixed price contracts we negotiated, which, by the way, have only strengthened into 2023.

2022 年，儘管指數熱軋價格年減約 600 美元/噸，但 Cliffs 的鋼材平均售價仍上漲了近 200 美元/噸。這是我們創紀錄收入的主要驅動力，也是我們談判的固定價格合約有所改善的證明，順便說一句，這些合約在 2023 年只會更加加強。

We spent the majority of 2022 reinvesting in our facilities, which, along with inflationary pressures, led to an uptick in operating and capital costs. With these initiatives now behind us, and certain inflationary pressures easing significantly in 2023, we expect to see meaningful cost reductions going forward. We are already operating at much lower cost than what our recent COGS would indicate, which will be more and more evident as we report continued sequential cost decreases in the coming quarters.

我們將 2022 年的大部分時間用於對設施進行再投資，再加上通膨壓力，導致營運和資本成本上升。隨著這些措施的實施，以及 2023 年某些通膨壓力的顯著緩解，我們預計未來成本將大幅下降。我們的營運成本已經遠低於最近的銷貨成本所顯示的水平，隨著我們報告未來幾季成本持續下降，這一點將越來越明顯。

In the fourth quarter of 2022, we generated adjusted EBITDA of $123 million, which we believe is the trough in quarterly adjusted EBITDA going forward. Consistent with our guidance, we achieved our target unit cost reduction of $80 per ton of steel sold in Q4, which helped to partially offset the lower index pricing environment in the back half of last year.

2022 年第四季度，我們實現了 1.23 億美元的調整後 EBITDA，我們認為這是未來季度調整後 EBITDA 的低谷。與我們的指導一致，我們實現了第四季度每噸鋼材單位成本降低 80 美元的目標，這有助於部分抵消去年下半年較低的指數定價環境。

During the quarter, we shipped 3.8 million tons of steel, giving us our best shipment quarter in over a year. From a free cash flow standpoint, we generated $262 million, more than 2x our EBITDA in the quarter, affirming our prior commentary that working capital would be a meaningful source of cash for us as real-time costs declined in the second half of the year. Consistent with our ongoing strategy, we deployed this cash to pay down $200 million of debt and used another $30 million to buyback 2 million shares at about $15 a share.

本季度，我們出貨了 380 萬噸鋼材，創下了一年多以來最好的出貨量季度。從自由現金流的角度來看，我們創造了2.62 億美元的收入，是本季度EBITDA 的兩倍多，證實了我們先前的評論，即隨著下半年即時成本的下降，營運資本將成為我們重要的現金來源。按照我們目前的策略，我們用這筆現金償還了 2 億美元的債務，並又用 3,000 萬美元以每股 15 美元左右的價格回購了 200 萬股。

Looking ahead to the first quarter of 2023, our shipments should rise to the 4 million-ton level on visibly improved demand. In addition, our unit cost should decline another $50 per net ton due to; one, higher production volumes; two, lower energy costs; and three, normalized repair and maintenance levels. Our Q1 selling price will be impacted by lower surcharges, some lags on lower-priced index deals and higher CRU discounts on spot-based contracts, but our improved fixed-price contracts will help to mitigate this impact.

展望 2023 年第一季度，由於需求明顯改善，我們的出貨量應會升至 400 萬噸。此外，我們的單位成本每淨噸將再下降 50 美元，原因是：一、提高產量；二、降低能源成本；第三是維修保養水準邁向常態化。我們第一季的銷售價格將受到較低的附加費、低價指數交易的一些滯後以及現貨合約的較高 CRU 折扣的影響，但我們改進的固定價格合約將有助於減輕這種影響。

Overall, the first quarter decline in average selling price is expected to be less than the decline in unit costs, driving margin accretion compared to Q4. Beyond that, we expect cost to continue to fall into the second quarter and prices to accelerate much higher, generating a considerable further EBITDA improvement from Q1 to Q2. So to be clear, as far as we can see, Q1 EBITDA should be higher than Q4 and Q2 EBITDA should be significantly higher than Q1.

總體而言，預計第一季平均銷售價格的降幅將低於單位成本的降幅，推動利潤率較第四季有所成長。除此之外，我們預計成本將在第二季繼續下降，價格將大幅上漲，使第一季至第二季的 EBITDA 進一步大幅改善。因此需要明確的是，據我們所見，第一季的 EBITDA 應該高於第四季度，而第二季度的 EBITDA 應該明顯高於第一季。

As noted in our release, we expect our steelmaking cost to decline by approximately $2 billion in 2023 compared to 2022, normalized for volumes. To provide further context and quantify certain components of that $2 billion, we expect an $800 million year-over-year reduction in maintenance and idle cost; a $400 million cost improvement related to higher production volumes; a $300 million reduction in natural gas cost at today's curve, including hedges; a $300 million improvement in alloy costs at today's levels; and a $200 million decrease related to supplies and other inputs. We do expect an uptick in coal and coke costs, but that will likely be offset by a decline in scrap cost based on today's curve.

正如我們在新聞稿中指出的那樣，我們預計，按產量計算，2023 年的煉鋼成本將比 2022 年下降約 20 億美元。為了提供進一步的背景資訊並量化這 20 億美元中的某些組成部分，我們預計維護和停運成本將比去年同期減少 8 億美元；與提高產量相關的 4 億美元成本改善；以今天的曲線計算，包括對沖在內，天然氣成本減少了 3 億美元；在目前的水平上，合金成本降低了 3 億美元；與供應品和其他投入相關的減少額為 2 億美元。我們確實預計煤炭和焦炭成本會上升，但根據今天的曲線，這可能會被廢料成本的下降所抵消。

Our capital expenditures should also take a meaningful step-down in 2023, with an expected range of $700 million to $750 million compared to the $943 million we spent in 2022. Last year, we had spending related to catch-up maintenance and the reline of our Cleveland #5 blast furnace. We are now running closer to a sustaining level of CapEx, with the only major projects above $25 million being an IT upgrade and a new line at our Coshocton facility, which will modernize the production of our bright anneal stainless trim, one of our highest priced and highest margin products.

我們的資本支出在 2023 年也應大幅減少，預計在 7 億至 7.5 億美元之間，而 2022 年的支出為 9.43 億美元。我們目前的資本支出已接近維持水平，唯一超過2500 萬美元的重大項目是IT 升級和科肖克頓工廠的新生產線，這將使我們光亮退火不銹鋼飾件的生產現代化，這是我們價格最高的產品之一以及利潤最高的產品。

With our pension and OPEB liabilities reduced by $3.4 billion over the last 2 years, we will also see relief on mandatory cash contributions related to these plans, which we expect to decline from $200 million in 2022 to $100 million in 2023, a portion of which is liquidity neutral as some related letters of credits are released.

隨著我們的退休金和OPEB 負債在過去兩年內減少了34 億美元，我們還將看到與這些計劃相關的強制性現金繳款的減免，我們預計該金額將從2022 年的2 億美元下降到2023 年的1 億美元，其中一部分由於一些相關信用證已經開具，流動性處於中性狀態。

Under our current outlook, we expect further reductions in working capital to drive an additional source of cash. We also expect a federal cash tax refund of $140 million in the first half of the year. And our SG&A expense in 2023 should be around $500 million, split evenly by quarter.

根據我們目前的前景，我們預計營運資本將進一步減少，從而帶來額外的現金來源。我們也預計今年上半年聯邦現金退稅將達到1.4億美元。我們 2023 年的銷售、一般及行政開支應為 5 億美元左右，並按季度平均分攤。

In the back half of 2022, we were able to weather through market volatility and lower prices, while remaining a healthy cash flow generator. With business fundamentals improving further this year, we are in an even better position to benefit with lower costs and fewer cash obligations, along with much better fixed price contracts.

2022 年下半年，我們得以渡過市場波動和價格下跌的難關，同時保持健康的現金流產生能力。隨著今年業務基本面的進一步改善，我們能夠以更低的成本、更少的現金義務以及更優惠的固定價格合約從中獲益。

With that, I'll turn it over to Lourenco for his remarks.

現在，我將把話題交給洛倫索來發表他的看法。

Thank you, Celso, and good morning, everyone. The transformation of acquisitions such as the ones we executed in 2020, are not done to build an empire or just so we could call ourselves the largest flat-rolled steel company. We actually do these things to unlock value through synergies, not only the obvious synergies that anyone can identify, but also, and mainly, the ones that are not so obvious, but actually create real value from situations never identified before or never explored before by others. That's exactly what we have demonstrated in our latest round of fixed price contract renegotiations.

謝謝你，塞爾索，大家早安。我們在 2020 年進行的收購轉型並不是為了建立一個帝國，也不只是為了稱自己為最大的扁平材公司。我們這樣做實際上是為了透過協同效應釋放價值，不僅是任何人都能識別的明顯協同效應，而且主要是那些不那麼明顯但實際上從未被識別或從未被探索過的情況中創造真正價值的協同效應。這正是我們在最新一輪固定價格合約重新談判中所展示的。

For the full year 2022, our weighted average realized price for our carbon steel automotive contracts was about $1,300 per net ton on a mix that consisted of about 70% coated products, 15% cold-rolled steel and 15% hot rolled. For the majority of the past 2 years, the margins on those sales to automotive were lower than the margins obtained on sales of less technically challenging and much less customer service intensive products, executed with our nonautomotive end users and service center clients.

就 2022 年全年而言，我們的碳鋼汽車合約的加權平均實現價格約為每淨噸 1,300 美元，其中塗層產品佔約 70%，冷軋鋼佔 15%，熱軋鋼佔 15%。在過去兩年的大部分時間裡，面向汽車市場的銷售利潤率低於針對非汽車終端用戶和服務中心客戶銷售技術難度較低、客戶服務要求較低的產品的利潤率。

Entering 2023, this situation has been fixed by Cleveland-Cliffs. The ability of our company to service the automotive industry is at our deepest core. Our team's knowledge of automotive clients enables us to effectively anticipate their needs. We have a proven track record of consistent performance. Even with the supply chain disruptions, all of our clients in the automotive sector have been through during the past couple of years.

進入2023年，此情況已被Cleveland-Cliffs解決。我們公司服務汽車產業的能力是我們最核心的能力。我們團隊對汽車客戶的了解使我們能夠有效地預測他們的需求。我們擁有穩定表現的良好記錄。即使供應鏈中斷，我們在汽車行業的所有客戶在過去幾年中都度過了難關。

During that time, the clients had to worry about a lot of things, but they never had a single disruption caused by steel from Cleveland-Cliffs. The steel was always there, automatic. We are good at that, and the clients know we are. That's why Cleveland-Cliffs supplies over 7 million tons of steel to the automotive sector, including 5 million tons of direct sales and over 2 million tons of indirect sales. For all these reasons, Cleveland-Cliffs deserves to be paid for what we do.

在那段時間裡，客戶需要擔心很多事情，但他們從未遇到任何由克利夫蘭克利夫斯的鋼材造成的中斷。鋼鐵一直都在那裡，自動的。我們在這方面很擅長，客戶也知道這一點。這就是克利夫蘭-克利夫斯向汽車行業供應超過 700 萬噸鋼材的原因，其中包括 500 萬噸直接銷售和超過 200 萬噸間接銷售。基於這些原因，克里夫蘭-克利夫斯理應因我們的所作所為而獲得報酬。

From the automotive company buyer's standpoint, replacing Cliffs with another supplier might look intriguing, particularly when 1 or 2 steel companies are so eager to buy market share by selling steel cheaper than Cliffs does. This script is well known. A steel mill offers cheap steel and promise that, at this time around, their performance will be better. However, that's almost always a recipe for disaster. It may save some dollars per ton on paper, and make the buyer look like a spreadsheet hero in front of his or her bosses, but for a limited period of time. And then when the steel does not arrive on time at the assembly line, or does not match specification, reality sinks in, and it's always ugly.

從汽車公司買家的角度來看，用另一家供應商取代 Cliffs 可能看起來很有趣，特別是當 1 或 2 家鋼鐵公司如此渴望以低於 Cliffs 的價格銷售鋼鐵來搶佔市場份額時。這個劇本是眾所周知的。一家鋼廠提供廉價的鋼材，並承諾這次他們的業績會更好。然而，這幾乎總是災難的根源。它可能會節省每噸紙張的一些美元，並讓買家在老闆面前看起來像電子表格英雄，但這種情況只持續有限的一段時間。當鋼材沒有準時到達裝配線，或不符合規格時，現實就會顯現，而情況總是很糟糕。

While in late 2021, we made some progress in reconciling the gap in value, however, the outside view, particularly from investors, was that we only achieved price increases because of the strong underlying price in the overall market. That was not the case, but it was not until this last renegotiating cycle towards 2023 that the new Cleveland-Cliffs approach to the business became fully apparent.

雖然在 2021 年末，我們在彌合價值差距方面取得了一些進展，但外界的看法，尤其是投資者的看法，認為我們只是因為整體市場的基礎價格強勁才實現了價格上漲。事實並非如此，但直到 2023 年最近的重新談判週期，克利夫蘭-克利夫斯的新業務方針才完全顯現出來。

So in an environment where carbon flat-rolled steel pricing decreased 65% in a little over 1 year time period, we were able to achieve decent increases on our automotive contracts without sacrificing sales volume. We are actually expecting higher sales volume to the automotive sector in 2023 than in 2022.

因此，在碳扁鋼價格在一年多一點的時間內下跌 65% 的環境下，我們能夠在不影響銷售量的情況下實現汽車合約的大幅成長。實際上，我們預計 2023 年汽車產業的銷量將高於 2022 年。

With that, for our direct automotive business, our largest end market, with typical volumes of 5 million tons per year, we expect our full year 2023 selling price of carbon flat-rolled steel to increase to $1,415 per net ton, $115 per net ton increase year-over-year. We consider that a significant, but still modest price increase, basically in line with past inflation.

因此，對於我們最大的終端市場——汽車直接業務，其年銷量通常為 500 萬噸，我們預計 2023 年全年碳扁鋼銷售價格將上漲至每淨噸 1,415 美元、每淨噸 115 美元同比增長。我們認為這是一個顯著但仍然溫和的價格上漲，基本上與過去的通貨膨脹相符。

Also, the vast majority of our customers recognize the value we provide, the solid advantage they enjoy from our unique one-stop shop and customer service capabilities, and how only our blast furnace BOF based steel can meet the most stringent quality standards for all of their flat-rolled needs.

此外，我們絕大多數客戶都認可我們提供的價值、他們從我們獨特的一站式服務和客戶服務能力中享受到的堅實優勢，以及只有我們的高爐轉爐鋼才能滿足所有最嚴格的品質標準。他們的扁平軋製需求。

Differently from every other steel company in the United States, Cleveland-Cliffs is fully committed to the blast furnace's BOF technological route. Our significant presence as a supplier of highly specified automotive-grade materials, particularly exposed parts, dictates the use of blast furnaces and BOFs.

與美國其他鋼鐵公司不同的是，克里夫蘭-克利夫斯全力推行高爐BOF技術路線。我們作為高規格汽車級材料（尤其是外露零件）的供應商，其重要性決定了我們使用高爐和轉爐。

And we are not alone. Every country with a major presence of automotive manufacturing, such as Japan, South Korea, Germany, France, or even China, currently the largest automotive producer in the world relies on blast furnaces and BOFs. These countries actually have to import massive amounts of iron ore pellets and center feed from others. And all of these countries generate a lot of scrap, but they still do not transition to EAFs, and certainly do not rely on EAFs for highly sophisticated carbon flat-rolled steel products, such as in automotive.

我們並不孤單。每個擁有大量汽車製造業的國家，例如日本、韓國、德國、法國，甚至中國，目前世界上最大的汽車生產國都依賴高爐和轉爐。這些國家實際上必須從其他國家進口大量鐵礦石球團和中心飼料。所有這些國家都產生大量廢鋼，但它們仍未轉向電弧爐，當然也不依賴電弧爐來生產汽車等高度複雜的碳素扁鋼產品。

The reason is simple. In order to supply steel to their own domestic automotive clients, they need their blast furnaces and BOFs. That's also our case here in the United States, and that's why Cleveland-Cliffs does not need to and does not plan to invest in new EAFs, beyond the 5 EAFs we already operate. There's a lot more to that, but I believe you've got the picture.

原因很簡單。為了向國內自己的汽車客戶供應鋼材，他們需要高爐和轉爐。我們在美國的情況也是如此，這就是為什麼克利夫蘭克利夫斯公司不需要、也不打算在已經運營的 5 座 EAF 之外投資新的 EAF。還有很多事情，但我相信你已經明白了。

In our view of the current economic landscape, automotive is the most exciting steel consuming sector for 2023. The current age of cars on the road, the consumer backlog, the low unemployment rate and the still low inventory levels at the dealer lots continue to point to growth in automotive sales and production over the coming years, particularly now when they have finally improved the performance of their supply chains.

我們認為，在當前的經濟狀況下，汽車是 2023 年最令人興奮的鋼鐵消費產業。未來幾年汽車銷售和生產的成長，特別是現在他們終於改善了供應鏈的績效。

Our January auto steel shipment rate was its best in nearly a year, and we expect this momentum to continue throughout 2023. Going forward, we remain committed to continuing to obtain fair prices for the steel we sell to our clients in the automotive sector. This improvement in the automotive market has also helped support pricing for our nonautomotive businesses as the increased demand in auto has reduced our overall availability to the broader market.

我們 1 月份的汽車鋼材出貨率是近一年來最好的，我們預計這一勢頭將持續到 2023 年。汽車市場的改善也有助於支持我們非汽車業務的定價，因為汽車需求的增加降低了我們對更廣泛市場的整體供應量。

Back in November, we started to note an inflection in both service center buying behavior and the scrap market, which finally began to point in a positive direction. We capitalized on this and announced our first of what is now 5 price increases, all of which have taken hold and moved pricing higher.

早在 11 月，我們就開始注意到服務中心的購買行為和廢品市場出現了變化，並最終開始朝著正面的方向發展。我們抓住這一機會，宣布了目前已進行過 5 次提價中的第一次，所有提價都已生效，價格也隨之上漲。

While imports of flat-roll steel, in general, have not been a major issue for us due to tariffs and duties we have in place, the one area where dumped and subsidized imports have become a problem is our tinplate business, which represents about 300,000 tons of sales per year for Cleveland-Cliffs. Since 2019, we have seen a dramatic surge in unfairly-traded imports of tin new products, which significantly undermines the fair prices we would otherwise achieve in our contract negotiation with our tinplate clients.

雖然由於我們已實施關稅和稅收，進口扁平材總體上對我們來說不是主要問題，但傾銷和補貼進口卻成為問題的一個領域是我們的馬口鐵業務，該業務代表著約 300,000克利夫蘭克利夫斯每年的銷售額達數噸。自2019年以來，我們看到不公平貿易的錫新產品進口急劇增加，這嚴重破壞了我們與馬口鐵客戶在合約談判中原本可以達成的公平價格。

We have recently filed trade cases against 8 countries who have distorted the market price here in the United States with their bad trade practices. We cannot allow this critical piece of our food supply chain to become fully dependent on imports. We have filed this trade case alongside our union partners, the United Steelworkers. We are grateful to have the USW taking on this fight with us, and we will do everything in our power to make sure U.S. trade laws are respected and the situation is properly fixed.

我們最近對 8 個國家提起了貿易訴訟，這些國家透過不良貿易行為扭曲了美國的市場價格。我們不能允許食品供應鏈的這個關鍵環節完全依賴進口。我們與我們的工會夥伴美國鋼鐵工人聯合會一起提起了此貿易訴訟。我們很感激美國鋼鐵協會與我們一起應對這場鬥爭，我們將竭盡全力確保美國貿易法得到尊重，情況得到妥善解決。

The outlook for our other specialty products, however, is very good. We expect that in 2023, our electrical steel business will post its highest profitability since 2009 back when it was AK Steel's main profit center. This 14-year high is driven primarily by grain-oriented electrical steels, GOES, products as ongoing efforts to modernize the electro grid have led to a strong demand. With the investments we have put into our Butler PA and Zanesville, Ohio facilities, over the past year, we now have even more capacity to serve our clients. We were also able to achieve unprecedented price increases on these products for 2023.

然而，我們其他特色產品的前景非常好。我們預計，到 2023 年，我們的電工鋼業務將實現自 2009 年以來最高的盈利能力，當時它曾是 AK Steel 的主要利潤中心。這一 14 年來的最高點主要由取向電工鋼 (GOES) 產品推動，因為不斷進行的電網現代化努力帶來了強勁的需求。透過過去一年對賓州巴特勒和俄亥俄州贊斯維爾工廠的投資，我們現在擁有更強的能力為客戶提供服務。我們也能夠在 2023 年實現這些產品前所未有的價格上漲。

Given the multiyear backlogs for electrical steels, and the additional demand created by the infrastructure investments and Jobs Act, our electrical steel assets should be solid contributors to our profitability in 2023 and beyond.

鑑於電工鋼多年的訂單積壓，以及基礎設施投資和就業法案創造的額外需求，我們的電工鋼資產應該會成為我們 2023 年及以後盈利能力的堅實貢獻者。

Finally, on the environmental side, 2022 was another year of progress towards achieving our carbon emission reduction goals. We are firm believers that we will deliver on our aggressive 2030 targets with a footprint that's primarily less furnace based. We are pleased with the progress we have made in our (inaudible) of full-scale carbon capture at Burns Harbor, our largest steel plant. As we look at it now, based on the incentives the U.S. government has offered per unit of carbon sequestered, this project should generate a meaningful IRR.

最後，在環境方面，2022 年是我們實現碳減排目標的另一個進步的一年。我們堅信，我們將能夠實現 2030 年的宏偉目標，並且減少對熔爐的依賴。我們對在我們最大的鋼鐵廠伯恩斯港全面碳捕獲方面取得的進展感到非常高興。從現在來看，基於美國政府為每單位碳封存提供的激勵措施，該項目應該會產生有意義的內部報酬率 (IRR)。

There is also the ability to substantially increase the use of hydrogen in our operations, replacing fossil fuel-based energy that we use throughout the entire footprint, particularly in our direct reduction plant and in our blast furnaces. We already use hydrogen in some processes like in annealing, but its broader use will depend mainly on the economic availability of hydrogen itself.

我們也能大幅增加營運中氫氣的使用，取代整個足跡所使用的基於化石燃料的能源，特別是在我們的直接還原工廠和高爐中。我們已經在退火等一些製程中使用了氫氣，但其更廣泛的應用將主要取決於氫氣本身的經濟可用性。

To facilitate this, we have joined with the industry and academic partners, informing the Great Lakes Clean Hydrogen coalition, or GLCH, a coordinated hydrogen hub effort to transition the Midwest into a leading low-carbon fuel production center. Cleveland-Cliffs has successfully implemented the use of HBI in blast furnaces. Now we look forward to becoming the first steel company in the world to utilize hydrogen as a clean reductant to iron oxides in a full industry scale.

為了促進這一目標，我們與產業和學術合作夥伴聯合起來，成立了五大湖清潔氫聯盟（GLCH），這是一個協調的氫能中心，旨在將中西部地區轉變為領先的低碳燃料生產中心。克利夫蘭克利夫斯公司已成功在高爐中使用 HBI。現在，我們期待成為世界上第一家在整個產業範圍內利用氫氣作為氧化鐵清潔還原劑的鋼鐵公司。

To wrap up, we at Cleveland-Cliffs have a lot to be proud of for what we have accomplished in the last 2 years and even more to be excited about looking ahead. We have broken free from the harmful old paradigm that automotive steel should be priced like a commodity. Our balance sheet improvement over the past year is remarkable, and it will only get better from here. Our costs are down, and our backlog of capital needs from the time of the acquisitions has been taking care of. Prices are on the upward trend.

總而言之，克里夫蘭克利夫斯公司對過去兩年所取得的成就感到非常自豪，對未來的展望更是興奮不已。我們已經擺脫了汽車用鋼應像商品一樣定價的有害舊模式。過去一年我們的資產負債表改善顯著，而且今後只會更好。我們的成本下降了，自收購以來積壓的資本需求也解決了。價格呈上漲趨勢。

With the fourth quarter EBITDA trough behind us, we look forward to the success that 2003 will bring to Cleveland-Cliffs. With that, I'll turn it over to the operator for questions.

隨著第四季度 EBITDA 低谷的過去，我們期待 2003 年克利夫蘭克利夫斯公司能夠取得成功。說完這些，我將把問題交給接線員。

(Operator Instructions) Our first question comes from Emily Chieng with Goldman Sachs.

（操作員指示）我們的第一個問題來自高盛的 Emily Chieng。

My first question is around shipment expectations for the full year. So I think, in the press release, you out a 16-million-ton expectation for 2023. What do you need to see from a demand perspective to hit that number? So perhaps if you could break down underlying automotive production assumption that underpins that and your shipments to that end market, and perhaps what you're seeing from other end markets as well?

我的第一個問題是關於全年出貨量預期。因此，我認為，在新聞稿中，您提出了 2023 年 1600 萬噸的預期。因此，您是否可以分解支撐這一假設的汽車生產基本假設以及您對該終端市場的出貨量，以及您從其他終端市場看到的情況？

We are anticipating 16 million tons. And in Q1, we're already ahead of the 4 million tons per quarter base. So we are very confident that this number is not only achievable, but we are confident that we can beat the 16 million tons. The main reason we were production constraint last year is simple. We were fixing equipment. We were producing less, and that has a deleterious impact in our cost per ton.

我們預計產量為1600萬噸。而在第一季度，我們的產量已經超過了每季 400 萬噸的目標。所以我們非常有信心，這個數字不僅是可以實現的，而且我們有信心能夠突破1600萬噸。去年我們生產受限的主要原因很簡單。我們正在修理設備。我們的產量減少了，這對我們的每噸成本產生了不利影響。

Going forward, you said, how can we get the 16 million tons? Well, the very first thing is automotive. Like I said in my prepared remarks, we are a 7 million tons a year provider of automotive steel, 5 million tons through direct sales and at least 2 million tons through others, I mean service centers, processors, things like that. So we believe that this number will be achieved based on a higher -- even higher expectation from the automotive sector in building cars. So this number is probably a little bit on the conservative side.

你說，下一步，我們要怎麼得到這1600萬噸？嗯，首先是汽車。正如我在準備好的演講中所說的那樣，我們每年供應700 萬噸汽車鋼材，其中500 萬噸通過直接銷售，至少200 萬噸通過其他方式供應，我的意思是通過服務中心、加工廠等。因此，我們相信，這一數字的實現將基於汽車產業對汽車製造更高甚至更高的期望。因此這個數字可能有些保守。

For the rest of the number, we only need to perform to the levels that we performed last year or it is likely less because automotive is likely better. So long story short, I don't think that the 16 million tons is any stretch. We are in good shape to get there.

對於其餘的數字，我們只需要達到去年的水平，或者可能更低，因為汽車行業可能會更好。長話短說，我認為 1600 萬噸並不算多。我們已做好充分準備去實現這一目標。

Great. My second question, maybe more so for Celso, but how do you think about balancing the deleveraging component of your strategy and also the capital returns piece? Is there a point in time where the dividend may become a bigger part of the capital allocation discussion? Or are we still just focusing on the deleveraging and some opportunistic buybacks at this point?

偉大的。我的第二個問題，可能更多是針對塞爾索，但是您如何考慮平衡您的策略中的去槓桿部分和資本回報部分？是否存在某個時間點，股利可能會成為資本配置討論中更重要的組成部分？或者我們現在仍然只專注於去槓桿和一些機會性回購？

Yes. We're going to remain consistent. I mean if you look at what we've done over the past few quarters, we've allocated the majority, call it, of cash flow toward debt reduction. But we have executed some well-timed opportunistic share buybacks. And that's what we're going to continue doing going forward.

是的。我們將保持一致。我的意思是，如果你看看我們過去幾季所做的事情，我們把大部分現金流用於減債。但我們實施了一些適時的機會性股票回購。這正是我們今後將繼續做的事。

Although we feel like the balance sheet is in great shape, there's still some more debt reduction that we can do, particularly on the ABL. There's no prepayment penalty to deploy cash towards that. So just look at the kind of the balance of debt paydown versus buybacks that we've done in the prior quarters, and you can kind of model that out for the next few quarters.

儘管我們覺得資產負債表狀況良好，但我們仍然可以做一些削減債務的工作，特別是削減資產負債表方面。使用現金支付預付款無需繳納罰金。因此，只要看一下我們在前幾季所做的債務償還與回購的平衡情況，就可以為接下來的幾季建模。

Yes. Let me add 1 point to this answer in terms of capital returns. If you look into the numbers that we returned through share buybacks last year, and you compare to the dividends that we were paying prior to the time that we cut the dividend by around COVID time and never reinstituted because it was a new company after buying (inaudible).

是的。讓我從資本回報的角度給這個答案加 1 分。如果你看一下我們去年透過股票回購所獲得的數字，並與我們在新冠疫情期間削減股息之前支付的股息進行比較，而且由於收購後是一家新公司，所以從未恢復派息（聽不清楚）。

But if you compare the dollar amount, it's not, by any stretch a disadvantage against the amount of money that you would have paid if you have kept the dividend based on the numbers of the past. So I would say -- I'll give you a long explanation to tell you something. If the investors tend to value dividends more than the share buyback we can easily replace one with the other with -- and it will be a neutral cash flow impact on us.

但如果你比較一下美元金額，那麼與根據過去的數字保留股息所支付的金額相比，這絕對不是什麼劣勢。所以我想說——我會給你一個很長的解釋來告訴你一些事情。如果投資人更重視股息而不是股票回購，我們可以輕鬆地用一種替代另一種——這對我們的現金流不會產生影響。

I just believe that the share buybacks are more tax efficient than the dividends. But this is something that we're discussing internally. And there's a strong possibility that we can just interrupt one and go to the other. It's a decision that we haven't made yet. I'm thinking, but we will be making this decision soon, and to be -- at the very least it will be neutral to our cash flow.

我只是相信股票回購比股利更具有稅收效率。但這是我們正在內部討論的事情。而且我們很有可能直接中斷其中一個，然後轉到另一個。我們尚未做出決定。我正在想，但我們很快就會做出這個決定，而且至少它對我們的現金流是中性的。

Our next question comes from Tristan Gresser with BNP Paribas.

下一個問題來自法國巴黎銀行的 Tristan Gresser。

The first one, I think in the past quarters, you provided some full year ASP guidance based on the forward curve. Is it something you're comfortable sharing today given the good level of visibility you have notably on your contract?

第一個問題，我認為在過去的幾個季度中，您根據遠期曲線提供了一些全年 ASP 指導。鑑於您的合約具有很高的透明度，您今天願意分享這個消息嗎？

Tristan, look, we believe that we gave at this time a more granular information on the ASP that will probably help you better than what we're doing before. Remember, the future curve is just a forward-looking assumption that might or might not materialize. What we are doing with automotive prices is real because these are contracts that are signed.

特里斯坦，看，我們相信我們這次提供了有關 ASP 的更詳細信息，這可能會比我們以前所做的更好地幫助您。請記住，未來曲線只是一種前瞻性假設，可能會實現，也可能不會實現。我們對汽車價格所做的一切都是真實的，因為這些都是簽署的合約。

And by the way, Tristan, these are negotiations that are not easy to get to because every single automotive manufacturer that we are negotiating against, were throwing on us that the competitors, they never say their names, but the competitor or 1 competitor or 2 competitors were offering lower prices, in some cases, much lower prices. So that was the uphill battle that we had to fight in order to get what we got.

順便說一句，特里斯坦，這些談判並不容易，因為與我們談判的每一家汽車製造商都在向我們推銷競爭對手，他們從不透露自己的名字，但會透露競爭對手或1 個或2 個競爭對手競爭對手提供的價格較低，在某些情況下，價格低得多。所以，為了得到我們所得到的，我們必須進行一場艱苦的戰鬥。

And we are proud of what we did. And again, these are real numbers. These are not assumptions towards future that can change on a dime. These are numbers that will be firm. So I believe that we gave enough information for you to model better than what we were doing before. I hope you agree with that.

我們對自己所做的事情感到自豪。再次強調，這些都是真實的數字。這些並不是對未來的假設，不會瞬間改變。這些數字是確定的。所以我相信我們已經提供了足夠的信息，讓您能夠比以前做得更好。我希望你同意這一點。

Yes. No, I think that's totally fair, and I appreciate the color on the contract structure and the improvement. If I -- maybe a follow-up on that, maybe. We've seen the product mix quite -- evolve quite a bit in Q4, and I think you previously flagged that. Maybe looking into Q1 and full year 2023, how would you expect the product mix to evolve especially on growing volumes, notably on the HRC side, on the coated side? And finally, maybe you could give us a sense of how much more volumes in stainless and electrical can you achieve or you're already at full capacity?

是的。不，我認為這完全公平，我很欣賞合約結構的豐富和改進。如果我——也許會跟進這一點，也許。我們已經看到產品組合在第四季度有了很大的發展，我想您之前已經提到過這一點。也許展望 2023 年第一季和全年，您預計產品組合將如何發展，特別是在產量不斷增長的情況下，特別是在熱軋捲板方面和塗層方面？最後，您能否告訴我們，你們的不銹鋼和電氣產量還能達到多少，或者你們已經達到滿載生產了？

As far as the overall mix, you should expect more on the high value-added side in general and less in the low value-added side. Why is that? One, automotive. The more these guys build cars, the more we're going to be concentrated on the higher side. You saw the mix that we informed, 70% coated, 15% hot-rolled, 15% cold-rolled. That's the mix that we sell automotive these days.

就整體組合而言，總體而言，您應該期望高附加價值方面會更多，而低附加價值方面會較少。這是為什麼？一、汽車。這些人生產的汽車越多，我們就越會集中在高端產品上。您看到了我們所告知的成分，70％塗層，15％熱軋，15％冷軋。這就是我們現在銷售的汽車組合。

So the more cars they build and the more our participation continues to increase in automotive, we're going to have more galvanized, more (inaudible), more electrical galvanized and, percentage-wise, less hot-rolled, less cold-rolled. That's one.

因此，他們生產的汽車越多，我們在汽車產業的參與度就越高，我們就會擁有更多的鍍鋅、更多的（聽不清楚）、更多的電鍍鋅，而從百分比來看，熱軋和冷軋的用量就會減少。那是一個。

Second, you will heard about electrical steels. We made an investment in our Zanesville, Ohio facility that increases our ability to produce more non-oriented electrical steels more, no more -- it's called NGOES, non-grain-oriented electrical steel that goes to the motors of the electric vehicles. And with that, we are freeing up Butler to concentrate only on GOES, on grain-oriented electrical that goes to the grid, that goes to transformers.

其次，您將聽說過電工鋼。我們對位於俄亥俄州贊斯維爾的工廠進行了投資，以提高我們生產更多無取向電工鋼的能力——它被稱為 NGOES，即無取向電工鋼，用於電動車的馬達。這樣一來，我們就可以讓巴特勒只專注於 GOES、進入電網和變壓器的穀物導向電力。

So we're expecting a meaningful increase in our throughput because we're basically separating Zanesville for NGOES and Butler for GOES. So -- and that's very high value added. The contracts are negotiated extremely well by the team towards 2023. And that, again, it's more in the high EBITDA per ton type of a business.

因此，我們預計吞吐量將顯著增加，因為我們基本上將 Zanesville 分為 NGOES，將 Butler 分為 GOES。所以——這是非常高的附加價值。團隊在 2023 年的合約談判中表現非常出色。

And last, but not least, if we -- there's one more before the last one that I want to comment. Stainless, we did well as well. Stainless -- and there is a big component of stainless for automotive. So I also mentioned the bright annealing the trim, material that we sell, that's our highest margin. These are $5,000 per ton type of material -- $5,000 per ton plus material. So it's really, really high value-added material. But that was good, too. And it's automotive, it's the setting stone as well.

最後，但並非最不重要的一點，如果我們 - 在最後一個問題之前還有一個問題我想評論一下。不銹鋼，我們也做得很好。不銹鋼－不銹鋼在汽車產業佔有很大的份額。所以我也提到了光亮退火裝飾物，我們銷售的材料，這是我們的最高利潤。這些是每噸 5,000 美元的材料——每噸 5,000 美元加上材料費。所以它確實是一種高附加價值的材料。但那也很好。它是汽車產業的基石。

But the last item that's kind of easy is tinplate. Because tinplate is a typical case of dump. We are starting to really gather information about a pretty absurd type of collusion against the suppliers, particularly against Cleveland-Cliffs. And we are exposing what I believe is a serious issue that might start in the [ITC] and ended up in a court of law with the personal liabilities for a few individuals. And I'm going to go to the neck on that one. Because what they do in terms of making us starve is totally absurd.

但最後一個比較容易的物品是馬口鐵。因為馬口鐵就是典型的倒賣商品。我們開始真正收集有關針對供應商（尤其是克利夫蘭-克利夫斯）的相當荒謬的勾結的資訊。我認為，我們正在揭露一個嚴重的問題，這個問題可能始於（ITC），最終通過法庭審判並由少數人承擔個人責任。我要去打那隻狗的脖子。因為他們讓我們挨餓的做法是完全荒謬的。

It's not enormous for us in a big scheme of things. We're talking 300,000 tons, but it's very strategically critical for the country. We cannot, particularly in a state of cold war that we're in right now, to outsource our ability to produce canned foods. And that's the main reason we are fighting this fight. But at the end of the day, we expect higher prices at the other end. And a few people that are acting like thugs to be personally responsible for their actions. So we're working on very seriously with our lawyers on that.

從整體來看，這對我們來說並不算什麼。我們說的是30萬噸，但這對國家來說具有重要的戰略意義。我們不能將生產罐頭食品的能力外包出去，特別是在目前處於冷戰狀態的情況下。這就是我們進行這場鬥爭的主要原因。但最終我們預期價格會上漲。少數像暴徒一樣行事的人要對自己的行為負個人責任。因此，我們正在與我們的律師認真地討論此事。

Our next question comes from Lucas Pipes with B. Riley.

我們的下一個問題來自 B. Riley 的 Lucas Pipes。

Lourenco and Celso, thank you for the color on Q1 pricing. And I have to admit, I didn't catch all the details, but could you walk us through kind of the pluses and minuses on the pricing front in Q1 versus Q4. And, ideally, looking out to Q2, if you could shed some color on the price increase there, that would also be really helpful.

Lourenco 和 Celso，感謝您對 Q1 定價的詮釋。我必須承認，我沒有了解所有細節，但您能否向我們介紹第一季與第四季在定價方面的優缺點？理想情況下，展望第二季度，如果您能解釋那裡的價格上漲情況，那也將非常有幫助。

We are expecting Q1 average sales price to be down approximately $30 to $40 from Q4. Remember, we have lags from (inaudible) index prices in November and December. And that will go against the fixed price contracts that are higher. So 2023, average sales price will be impacted by this type of thing.

我們預計第一季的平均銷售價格將比第四季下降約 30 至 40 美元。請記住，我們與 11 月和 12 月的（聽不清楚）指數價格有滯後。這將違背價格較高的固定價格合約。因此，到 2023 年，平均銷售價格將受到此類因素的影響。

Also, we have to remember that the renegotiation of contracts is for 2023. So we're talking about things that will happen through the year. So we are -- all in all, because of our cost cut initiatives that Celso explained, we are expecting cost cutting impact to be higher than the lower Q1 average sales price. And that's what is going to increase margin.

另外，我們必須記住，合約的重新談判是在 2023 年。所以，總而言之，正如塞爾索所解釋的，由於我們的成本削減舉措，我們預計成本削減的影響將高於第一季的平均銷售價格。這就能增加利潤。

So it's not just a matter of average sales price, but also the cost cut initiatives that will enlarge our margins. So Q1 will be better, we expect, Q1 EBITDA to be better than Q4 EBITDA. And then Q2 EBITDA to be higher than Q1 EBITDA and so on and so forth. So that's the story. I hope I answered.

因此，這不僅是平均銷售價格的問題，削減成本的措施也將擴大我們的利潤率。因此，我們預計第一季的 EBITDA 將優於第四季的 EBITDA。然後第二季的 EBITDA 將高於第一季的 EBITDA 等等。故事就是這樣的。我希望我回答了。

Yes. No, that was very helpful color. So for Q2 pricing, we would essentially see the full benefit of the higher fixed prices alongside the higher spot prices coming through with the lag? And then...

是的。不，那是非常有用的顏色。那麼，對於第二季的定價，我們基本上可以看到固定價格上漲以及現貨價格上漲的全部好處嗎？進而...

That's correct. That's correct.

沒錯。沒錯。

Thank you, Lourenco. And on the cost side, we would also see continued improvement in Q2. And that is my second question. What would be the key drivers there? I estimate it's about $40 or so of additional cost savings in Q2 versus Q1. Is that the right ballpark? And I assume it's working through higher cost inventories and such. But if you could add on continued cost savings in Q2, I would appreciate your perspective.

謝謝你，Lourenco。在成本方面，我們也將看到第二季持續改善。這是我的第二個問題。其中的關鍵驅動因素是什麼？我估計第二季與第一季相比將額外節省約 40 美元左右的成本。這是正確的範圍嗎？我認為它是透過提高庫存成本等來發揮作用的。但如果您可以在第二季繼續節省成本，我將非常感激您的意見。

Yes. Celso, do you want to take this one?

是的。塞爾索，你想拿這個嗎？

Yes, sure. Lucas, as you know, a lot of the cost increases in '22 were driven by these repair and maintenance initiatives and special projects like the reline of the Cleveland furnace, et cetera. But as we work through those, and we see some relief from inflationary pressures as well, and as we increase our volume output, Q4 costs decreased to the level that we guided, the $80 a ton, in line with our Q3 guidance.

是的，當然。盧卡斯，如你所知，22 年的許多成本增加都是由這些維修和保養計劃以及克利夫蘭爐襯修復等特殊項目推動的。但隨著我們努力解決這些問題，我們也看到通膨壓力有所緩解，隨著我們產量的增加，第四季度的成本下降到了我們預期的水平，即每噸80 美元，與我們的第三季度預期一致。

And going forward, we expect another $50 per ton reduction in Q1. And then beyond that, you can probably plug in another $60 per ton from Q1 to Q2, and then, call it, another $40 per ton or so from Q2 to Q3. Does that kind of get you where you need to be, Lucas?

展望未來，我們預計第一季每噸價格還將進一步下調 50 美元。除此之外，你可能還可以從第一季到第二季每噸再增加 60 美元，然後從第二季到第三季每噸再增加 40 美元左右。這樣能讓你達到你想要的目標嗎，盧卡斯？

That is super helpful, Celso. So I'd say that's better than I expected. So I really appreciate the color and detail for the cadence of the year, and I wish you and the team continued best of luck.

這非常有幫助，塞爾索。因此我想說這比我預期的要好。因此，我真的很欣賞今年節奏的色彩和細節，並祝你和團隊繼續好運。

Thank you, Lucas. And I insist with that, this cost-cutting initiatives are also a function of the volume because we're talking cost per ton, so higher volume, and it's included in the numbers that Celso given to you. And these volumes are all being priced at higher prices, both in fixed contracts with automotive, and, hopefully, we'll continue this trend that we initiated in November and so far so good for the other business where prices are going up, and that's a good thing for us. So it's pretty meaningful enlargement of our margin that we're expecting throughout the year.

謝謝你，盧卡斯。我堅持認為，這些削減成本的舉措也是產量的函數，因為我們談論的是每噸成本，所以產量更高，這也包括在 Celso 給您的數字中。這些產品的定價都比較高，包括與汽車公司簽訂的固定合同，希望我們能延續 11 月份開創的這一趨勢，到目前為止，其他業務的價格都在上漲，這是對我們來說是件好事。因此，我們預計全年利潤率將顯著提高。

Our next question comes from Lawson Winder, Bank of America Securities.

下一個問題來自美國銀行證券的勞森溫德（Lawson Winder）。

I wanted to ask about the fixed price volume. So just looking at your volume guidance of 16 million tons, would you be able to provide a little bit more color on what percentage of those would fall under the fixed-price contracting?

我想問一下固定價格量。那麼，僅從您 1,600 萬噸的運輸量預期來看，您能否進一步說明其中有多少比例將屬於固定價格合約？

So historically, you said sort of like 40% to 45%, which would imply 6.4 to 7.2 million short tons. So I just wanted to confirm if that still made sense, and whether or not that included any of your assumptions around service center fixed price volume?

所以從歷史上看，您說的是 40% 到 45% 左右，這意味著 640 萬到 720 萬短噸。所以我只是想確認這是否仍然有意義，以及是否包括您對服務中心固定價格量的任何假設？

Yes. We have something like 7 million tons of fixed contract tonnage in the 16. 5 are direct auto, and we have 2 of several others and include some on service centers, include some on electrical, some on stainless, some on tinplates, pretty much everything. But tinplate, altogether, it's between 250,000, 300,000. So it's not really in the big scheme of things, it's not enough. But anyway, I would assume the 45% is a good number at 7 million tons.

是的。我們在 16 個國家有大約 700 萬噸的固定合約噸位。但是馬口鐵的價格總共在25萬到30萬之間。所以從整體來看，這還不夠。但無論如何，我認為 45% 是一個不錯的數字，即 700 萬噸。

Okay. Fantastic. And maybe you could also comment on any quarterly variability in that ratio.

好的。極好的。或許您也可以評論一下該比率的季度變化。

Yes. Not that I expect anything meaningful. It will be all dictated by the cadence of the automotive industry to build cars. They are building more cars -- they absolutely build more cars in January than they did in the previous quarter, each one of the months of the previous quarter. January was our best shipment volume for the quarter.

是的。我並不期待任何有意義的事。這一切都將取決於汽車產業製造汽車的節奏。他們生產的汽車更多——他們一月份生產的汽車絕對比上一季、上一季每個月生產的汽車都多。一月份是我們本季出貨量最好的一月份。

So that's a data point that we have on hand right now. And we expect that these things will continue at least at the very same level that we saw in January, and may be better if things start to shape up as we are seeing -- as we saw this morning, inflation going down, employment is still okay, the CPI not crazy, one way or another. So the doomsday scenario that some were anticipating is not really materializing. It's doing good. We are doing good.

這就是我們現在掌握的數據點。我們預計，這些情況至少會繼續保持在 1 月份的水平，如果情況開始好轉，情況可能會更好——正如我們今天早上看到的那樣，通膨正在下降，就業仍然好吧，不管怎樣，CPI 沒有瘋狂。因此，有些人所期待的末日景象並沒有真正成為現實。效果很好。我們做得很好。

Our order book is showing, that's why we're able to announce and enforce the previous price increase. And the one we announced yesterday, so far so good. The last 24 hours, were good in bookings and everything. So we're in good shape.

我們的訂單簿正在顯示，這就是我們能夠宣布並執行先前的價格上漲的原因。我們昨天宣布的這個消息到目前為止一切順利。過去 24 小時，預訂情況和其他一切都很好。因此我們的狀況良好。

Our next question comes from Phil Gibbs with KeyBanc Capital Markets.

下一個問題來自 KeyBanc Capital Markets 的 Phil Gibbs。

Lourenco and Celso, the pension expense or credit this year, what is that relative to last year? And then also, what are your interest expense expectations because I know rates have been changing?

Lourenco 和 Celso，今年的退休金支出或信用額與去年相比如何？而且，我知道利率一直在變化，您的利息支出預期是多少？

Yes, I want Celso to reply to this one. Celso, go ahead.

是的，我希望 Celso 可以回答這個問題。塞爾索，繼續說。

Yes, sure. Phil, so we have a big balance drawn on the ABL. So -- and that's a floating rate instrument. So interest expense has been going up because of that. On a full year basis, you can -- including the ABL plus all the bonds that we have, you can call it $260 million to $270 million of interest expense for the year. And then as it relates to pension and OPEB, what was your question exactly on that?

是的，當然。菲爾，我們在 ABL 上有很大的餘額。所以—這是一種浮動利率工具。因此利息支出一直在上升。如果以全年計算，包括 ABL 加上我們持有的所有債券，那麼全年的利息支出為 2.6 億至 2.7 億美元。那麼既然它與退休金和 OPEB 有關，您的問題到底是什麼？

I think you had a decent credit last year, but most of that was from below the line. How has that full year expense or credit changed given everything that you've done to your plan and interest rates?

我認為你去年的信用記錄還不錯，但其中大部分都是低於標準的。考慮到您對計劃和利率所做的一切，全年支出或信用有何變化？

Yes. It should be about $100 million of cash expense and plus call it $140 million of credits in 2023.

是的。這應該是約 1 億美元的現金支出，再加上 2023 年的 1.4 億美元信貸。

Okay. Perfect.

好的。完美的。

A little less than 2022.

比 2022 年少一點。

Our next question comes from Andreas Bokkenheuser with UBS.

下一個問題來自瑞銀的 Andreas Bokkenheuser。

Just 2 quick questions for me. Obviously, there's been a lot of talk about some capacity being restarted among some of your peers, which I think was a little bit surprising given that industry utilization on average is just about 70%. Can you give us a little bit of clarity where your utilization is sitting versus the sector at the moment in terms of production?

我只想問兩個簡單問題。顯然，一些同行已經討論過重啟部分產能，考慮到行業平均利用率僅為 70% 左右，我認為這有點令人驚訝。您能否向我們稍微說明一下，就生產而言，您的利用率與目前的產業相比如何？

And secondly, obviously, you've seen the headlines about further price hikes on HRC. Are you fully getting 850 now? I know it differs between producers, but are you fully getting $850 HRC now giving you comfort to obviously push it towards $900? Those are my 2 questions.

其次，顯然，您已經看到了有關熱軋捲價格進一步上漲的頭條新聞。現在完全達到 850 了嗎？我知道不同生產商之間有所不同，但現在您是否完全可以接受 850 美元的 HRC 價格，從而明顯將其推高至 900 美元？這是我的兩個問題。

Our utilization, we are running all of our assets, and we are not idling anything. So that's what I can tell you. The number, I don't have it, I don't follow, that's not relevant to what we do. We deliver automotive on time. We take care of our clients. We run our assets for maximum profitability. And these are the guidelines. We don't have to run 24/7 to mitigate costs and the fight on the last ton. We have a different approach to business.

我們的利用率，我們正在運行我們所有的資產，我們沒有閒置任何東西。這就是我能告訴你的。我沒有這個數字，我也不清楚，這和我們的工作無關。我們按時交付汽車。我們照顧我們的客戶。我們經營資產以追求最大獲利。這些就是指導方針。我們無需每週 7 天、每天 24 小時不間斷地運作來降低成本並爭奪最後一噸。我們採取不同的經營方式。

So we are not in the commodity business. I hope this message came across loud and clear because that's what we are, that's what we do, and that's why we invest money and take care of the equipment instead of just running to exhaustion.

因此我們不從事商品業務。我希望這個訊息能夠被清楚地傳達，因為這就是我們的本質，這就是我們所做的事情，這就是我們投入資金和保養設備而不是只是跑到精疲力竭的原因。

So that's what I saw from part of the assets that I acquired 2 years ago, no more. The assets are in good shape, and we are producing for maximum quality and maximum profitability. And that's what we're going to deliver in 2023.

這就是我兩年前收購的部分資產所呈現的樣子，僅此而已。資產狀況良好，我們正在生產追求最高品質和最大利潤。這就是我們將在 2023 年實現的目標。

What was the second question, Andreas?

第二個問題是什麼，安德烈亞斯？

Just on pricing, we saw obviously headlines on pricing, going to $850 million. You guys -- I think you raised another $50 to $900. Just wanted to get a sense of whether you're fully getting the $850 now giving you good comfort that you can push to $900 million?

就在定價方面，我們顯然看到了有關定價的頭條新聞，價格將達到 8.5 億美元。你們——我想你們又籌集了 50 美元到 900 美元。只是想了解您是否已經完全獲得了 8.5 億美元，這是否讓您感到安心，可以將其推高至 9 億美元？

Well, when we start the first price increase, hot band was $640. So now we're announcing $900. So what do you think? What is your take? Is it sticking or not?

好吧，當我們開始第一次提價時，熱門樂團的價格是 640 美元。所以現在我們宣布900美元。那您覺得怎麼樣呢？您的看法是什麼？黏不黏啊？

Yes. I guess it just comes back to the utilization point. I guess, with 70% utilization for the industry, I can appreciate you're not thinking about in terms of utilization, but just the strength of the market to push it on to $900, I guess that's kind of where I'm coming from. But I guess you have the comfort for $900.

是的。我猜它只是回到了利用點。我想，由於該行業的利用率為 70%，我可以理解你不是在考慮利用率，而是考慮市場的力量將其推高至 900 美元，我想這就是我的觀點。但我想 900 美元就能帶給你舒適感了。

Well, we are at $850, and we believe $900 is achievable. That's our take.

嗯，我們現在的價格是 850 美元，我們相信 900 美元是可以實現的。這是我們的看法。

Our next question comes from Karl Blunden with Goldman Sachs.

我們的下一個問題來自高盛的卡爾布倫登。

You'd outlined here in terms of free cash flow, a plan to deploy that towards share buybacks and then also debt reduction. As we think about '23 and beyond, is there also a potential for M&A? Or is the -- should we think about the footprint is pretty much where you want it to be right now?

您在這裡概述了自由現金流的情況，以及將其用於股票回購和減少債務的計劃。當我們思考23年及以後時，是否還存在併購的潛力？或者是——我們應該考慮一下足跡現在是否就在您想要的位置？

I like the footprint, Karl. I like the footprint. M&A, we never talk about in this company. We never talk about M&A as a theoretical exercise. So as a theoretical exercise, I like my footprint. That's all I can tell right now.

我喜歡這個足跡，卡爾。我喜歡這個足跡。我們公司從來沒有談過併購。我們從來不把併購當作理論練習來談。因此，作為一項理論練習，我喜歡我的足跡。這就是我現在能說的全部。

Got you. That's helpful. And then on the debt profile, you've made a lot of progress in paying down debt, both the bonds and then also the ABL. As you think about kind of the optimal cap structure, is there an interest in also extending that beyond just paying down? Or should we think about the focus being primarily towards just debt pay down for now?

明白了。這很有幫助。然後在債務狀況方面，您在償還債務（包括債券和 ABL）方面取得了很大進展。當您考慮最佳上限結構時，是否有興趣將其擴展到不僅僅是償還？或者我們目前是否應該考慮主要關注償還債務？

We will continue to pay down debt. It's still our main use of cash. This being said, with all the conversations about debt and pension/OPEB liabilities and things like that, think about, 2 years ago, we were 4 point-something billion in pension/OPEB liabilities. Now we are [sub-$1.8 billion] and something. So we take care of these things. We don't talk much about, we just do it.

我們將繼續償還債務。它仍然是我們使用現金的主要方式。話雖如此，但談到債務、退休金/OPEB 負債等事情，想想看，兩年前，我們的退休金/OPEB 負債高達 40 多億美元。現在我們的收入已經低於 18 億美元了。所以我們會處理這些事情。我們不多說，只做。

And sometimes the underlying numbers, the ones that trigger trades in a minute-by-minute, play-by-play base, they are not that great. There's not a lot of EPS. Cash flow is higher than EBITDA. This is a company that we are running for shareholders, for bondholders, for employees, for people that are vested long term, and we'll continue to do that.

有時，那些以每分鐘、逐場數據觸發交易的基礎數字，並沒有那麼好。每股盈餘 (EPS) 並不多。現金流高於 EBITDA。我們經營這家公司是為了股東、債券持有人、員工和長期利害關係人，而且我們將繼續這樣做。

2 years is a long time for us. We have proven that when we acquired AK and then ArcelorMittal, USA, and then FPT. So 2 years ago, we were making $2 billion in revenues. So now I'm making $23 billion in revenue in 2 years. That's not a crypto company. It's real. It's Cleveland-Cliffs, we're 175 years old company. But we've got to have to take a step back and look the real picture, look like how things really are in the marketplace.

兩年對我們來說是很長的時間。當我們收購 AK、隨後收購美國的安賽樂米塔爾 (ArcelorMittal) 以及 FPT 時，我們已經證明了這一點。兩年前，我們的收入是 20 億美元。所以現在我在兩年內賺了 230 億美元的收入。那不是一家加密貨幣公司。這是真的。我們是克里夫蘭-克利夫斯公司，是一家有 175 年歷史的公司。但我們必須退一步來看看真實的情況，看看市場上的真實情況。

The most important thing that we did in 2022 was not even fixing the assets. The most important thing was fixing the relationship between a steel company, a major steel company, a major supplier to the automotive industry and the automotive industry itself. If you look back to the root cause of the bankruptcies of [Bakalland and LTV and Amico] and Inland. Inland didn't go bankrupt, it was acquired by Mittal. So it's not a good example.

我們在 2022 年所做的最重要的事情甚至不是修復資產。最重要的是建立鋼鐵公司、大型鋼鐵公司、汽車業主要供應商、汽車業本身之間的關係。如果回顧一下 [Bakalland 和 LTV 和 Amico] 和 Inland 破產的根本原因。 Inland 並沒有破產，而是被米塔爾收購了。所以這不是一個好的例子。

But the vast majority of these names of the past, you go back to this value destruction that the automotive industry promoted between steel companies. And as of 2022, 2023, we're still facing that. We go to negotiate with a client that the biggest thing that they had last year was microchips, supply chain. And the only thing they want to talk about is price.

但過去的這些名字中的絕大多數，都回到了汽車業在鋼鐵公司之間推動的這種價值破壞。截至 2022 年、2023 年，我們仍面臨這個問題。我們去和一位客戶談判，他們去年最大的生意就是微晶片和供應鏈。他們唯一想談論的就是價格。

So I was really ready to not renew a contract entirely with a car manufacturer. But at the end of the day, they all renewed. They all appreciated. They all understood. I'm being very polite. So things will continue to be good, but that's the biggest accomplishment. And I got very few questions about that. So that's why I'm emphasizing what I believe is the real game changer.

所以我真的準備不再與汽車製造商續約了。但最終，他們都重獲新生。他們都很感激。他們都明白。我非常有禮貌。所以事情會繼續向好，但這是最大的成就。我對此的疑問很少。這就是為什麼我要強調我認為的真正改變遊戲規則的事情。

It's like an iron ore company becoming a steel company, is a real game changer. Now a supplier of automotive not begging for orders and offering lower prices to get it, it's another big game changer. So stay tuned. 2023 is just starting. It's February. So we have 10 more months to go. Okay, Karl?

這就像一家鐵礦石公司變成一家鋼鐵公司一樣，是一個真正的遊戲規則改變者。現在，汽車供應商不再乞求訂單，而是以較低的價格來獲取訂單，這是另一個重大的變化。敬請關注。 2023年才剛開始。現在是二月。因此我們還有 10 個月的時間。好的，卡爾？

Yes, that's helpful. Congrats on the continued debt reduction.

是的，這很有幫助。恭喜您繼續減債。

We have reached the end of our question-and-answer session. I would now like to turn the floor back over to Mr. Goncalves for closing comments.

我們的問答環節已經結束。現在我想把發言權交還給貢薩爾維斯先生，請他作最後評論。

All right. Thanks, Maria. Appreciate it. Thank you, everyone, for the attention to this call and for the questions and for the support. I really appreciate your hard work in trying to model a pretty complex company that's Cleveland-Cliffs. We are extremely committed with everything that Celso and I spoke about today, and we look forward to continuing the dialogue. Thanks a lot, and have a great day. Bye now.

好的。謝謝，瑪麗亞。非常感謝。感謝大家對本次電話會議的關注、提問與支持。我非常感謝您為模擬克利夫蘭-克利夫斯這家相當複雜的公司所付出的努力。我們非常重視我和塞爾索今天談論的一切，並期待繼續對話。非常感謝，祝您有愉快的一天。再見了。

This concludes today's teleconference. You may disconnect your lines at this time. Thank you for your participation.

今天的電話會議到此結束。現在您可以斷開您的線路。感謝您的參與。