高露潔 (CL) 2023 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Good morning. Welcome to today's Colgate-Palmolive Fourth Quarter and Full Year 2023 Earnings Conference Call. This call is being recorded and is being simulcast live at www.colgatepalmolive.com. Now for opening remarks, I'd like to turn this call over to Chief Investor Relations Officer and Executive Vice President, M&A, John Faucher.

早安.歡迎參加今天的高露潔棕欖 2023 年第四季及全年財報電話會議。本次通話正在錄音，並在 www.colgatepalmolive.com 上同步直播。現在，我想將這次電話會議轉交給首席投資者關係長兼併購執行副總裁 John Faucher。

Thanks, Betsy. Good morning, and welcome to our Fourth Quarter and Full Year 2023 Earnings Release Conference Call. This is John Faucher. Today's conference call will include forward-looking statements. Actual results could differ materially from these statements. Please refer to the Q4 and full year 2023 earnings press release and related prepared materials and our most recent filings with the SEC, including our 2022 annual report on Form 10-K and subsequent SEC filings, all available on Colgate's website, for a discussion of the factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from these statements.

謝謝，貝特西。早上好，歡迎參加我們的 2023 年第四季和全年收益發布電話會議。這是約翰·福徹。今天的電話會議將包括前瞻性陳述。實際結果可能與這些陳述有重大差異。請參閱第四季度和2023 年全年收益新聞稿和相關準備材料以及我們最近向SEC 提交的文件，包括我們的10-K 表格2022 年年度報告和隨後的SEC 文件，所有這些都可以在高露潔網站上獲取，以了解以下內容的討論可能導致實際結果與這些陳述有重大差異的因素。

This conference call will also include a discussion of non-GAAP financial measures, including those identified in tables 4, 6 7, 8 and 9 of the earnings press release. A full reconciliation to the corresponding GAAP financial measures is included in the Q4 2023 earnings press release and is available on Colgate's website. Joining me on the call this morning are Noel Wallace, Chairman, President and Chief Executive Officer; and Stan Sutula, Chief Financial Officer. Noel will provide you with some thoughts on our Q4 and full year results and our 2024 outlook. We will then open it up for Q&A. Noel?

本次電話會議也將討論非 GAAP 財務指標，包括收益新聞稿表 4、6、7、8 和 9 中確定的指標。 2023 年第四季財報新聞稿中包含了與相應 GAAP 財務指標的全面對賬，並可在高露潔網站上查看。今天早上與我一起參加電話會議的還有董事長、總裁兼執行長諾埃爾華萊士 (Noel Wallace)；蘇圖拉 (Stan Sutula)，財務長。 Noel 將為您提供有關我們第四季度和全年業績以及 2024 年展望的一些想法。然後我們將打開它進行問答。諾埃爾？

Thanks, John, and good morning, everyone, and thanks for joining us to discuss our strong finish to a very good year in 2023 and our positive outlook for 2024. Over the past 2 years, we have been particularly focused on sustaining our strong organic sales growth, while rebuilding our margins and improving our cash flow performance. We deliver on all 3 of those goals this year while still investing behind advertising to strengthen our brands and building and scaling capabilities to deliver future growth. 2023 marked our fifth consecutive year of organic sales growth either in line or ahead of our 3% to 5% long-term target range.

謝謝約翰，大家早安，感謝您與我們一起討論 2023 年美好的一年的強勁收官以及對 2024 年的積極展望。在過去的 2 年裡，我們特別致力於維持我們強大的有機銷售增長，同時重建我們的利潤並改善我們的現金流績效。我們今年實現了所有這三個目標，同時仍在廣告方面進行投資，以強化我們的品牌，並建立和擴展能力以實現未來的成長。 2023 年是我們連續第五年實現有機銷售成長，符合或超過我們 3% 至 5% 的長期目標範圍。

We delivered balanced organic sales growth, growth in all 6 divisions, all 4 of our categories and with improved balance between pricing and volume as we exited the year. Volume rounded to flat in the fourth quarter and was up for the quarter, excluding the impact of lower private label volumes at Hill's. Our market share momentum is improving behind strong innovation, higher levels of brand investment with a focus on improving the effectiveness of each dollar spent. We are also seeing the benefits of our digital transformation as our efforts with data analytics continue to proceed.

我們實現了均衡的有機銷售成長、所有 6 個部門、所有 4 個類別的成長，並在今年結束時改善了價格和銷售之間的平衡。排除 Hill’s 自有品牌銷量下降的影響，第四季銷量持平，本季有所成長。在強大的創新、更高水準的品牌投資（重點是提高每一美元的支出效率）的推動下，我們的市場份額勢頭正在不斷提高。隨著我們在數據分析方面的努力不斷進行，我們也看到了數位轉型的好處。

Our commitment to revenue growth management and the strength of our funding to growth efforts, combined with our global productivity initiative drove gross margin expansion, double-digit base business operating profit growth and high single-digit base business EPS growth. We delivered these results while increasing the investment in marketing and strategic capabilities and absorbing the headwinds from higher interest expense, pension and tax. We drove greater than 60% free cash flow growth, allowing us to invest behind our brands, increase capacity and buy back stock.

我們對收入成長管理的承諾和我們對成長努力的資金實力，再加上我們的全球生產力計劃，推動了毛利率的擴張、兩位數的基本業務運營利潤增長和高個位數的基本業務每股收益增長。我們在取得這些成果的同時，增加了對行銷和策略能力的投資，並吸收了利息支出、退休金和稅收增加帶來的不利影響。我們推動了超過 60% 的自由現金流成長，使我們能夠投資我們的品牌、增加產能和回購股票。

We also increased our dividend for the 61st consecutive year. I am deeply proud of the results Colgate people have delivered in a challenging operating environment. 2024 will offer many of the same challenges as 2023, geopolitical unrest, foreign exchange headwinds and a challenged consumer, continued softness in China and a large number of political elections around the world. We enter 2024 with strong momentum and the plans in place to deliver in this environment as well as greater flexibility in both our income statement and our balance sheet.

我們也連續 61 年增加了股利。我對高露潔員工在充滿挑戰的營運環境中所取得的成果深感自豪。 2024 年將面臨許多與 2023 年相同的挑戰：地緣政治動盪、外匯逆風和消費者面臨挑戰、中國持續疲軟以及世界各地舉行大量政治選舉。我們以強勁的勢頭進入 2024 年，並製定了在這種環境下交付的計劃，並且我們的損益表和資產負債表具有更大的靈活性。

As we have mentioned over the past few quarters, we're focused on returning to consistent compounded EPS growth and our 2024 guidance reflects this ambition. We will continue to invest to drive high-quality balanced organic sales growth in with both volume and pricing growing. We plan to deliver on productivity to fund this incremental investment while growing earnings per share. This should enable us to deliver strong cash flow growth to invest back in the business and return cash to shareholders.

正如我們在過去幾個季度中提到的，我們的重點是恢復穩定的複合每股收益成長，我們的 2024 年指引反映了這一雄心壯志。我們將繼續投資，隨著銷售和價格的成長，推動高品質、平衡的有機銷售成長。我們計劃提高生產力，為增量投資提供資金，同時增加每股盈餘。這將使我們能夠實現強勁的現金流成長，以投資回業務並向股東返還現金。

I look forward to discussing our 2024 plans in further detail at CAGNY next month, so you can share the confidence the Colgate-Palmolive team has in our continued growth. And with that, I'll take your questions.

我期待下個月在 CAGNY 進一步詳細討論我們的 2024 年計劃，以便您可以分享高露潔棕欖團隊對我們持續成長的信心。接下來，我將回答你們的問題。

(Operator Instructions) The first question today comes from Dara Mohsenian with Morgan Stanley.

（操作員說明）今天的第一個問題來自摩根士丹利的 Dara Mohsenian。

So just wanted to focus on market share results in Q4. And as you look ahead, Oral Care share was obviously strong again and you delivered healthy expansion for the full year. Can you just talk about your forward positioning on the share front in Oral Care. You've got a tougher comparison here. So how do you think about the sustainability of those share gains as you look out to 2024 and then a similar question on Pet.

所以只想關注第四季的市佔率結果。展望未來，口腔護理市場份額顯然再次強勁，並且全年實現了健康擴張。您能談談您在口腔護理領域的份額前沿定位嗎？你在這裡有一個更嚴格的比較。那麼，當您展望 2024 年時，您如何看待這些份額收益的可持續性，然後再提出有關 Pet 的類似問題。

Obviously, some industry pressure points, can you sort of juxtapose your market share relative to those industry pressure points? And if the unlocked capacity is a significant driver of market share opportunity longer term in that business?

顯然，有一些行業壓力點，您能否將您的市場份額與這些行業壓力點進行比較？釋放的產能是否是該業務長期市佔率機會的重要驅動因素？

Great. Dara, thank you. So let me start a little bit broader on the categories, particularly Oral Care, we're really encouraged to see the inflection of positive volume growth in the categories around the world. And in many of the regions where we had seen negative volume growth, we started to see an inflection of that towards the end of the fourth quarter in the category.

偉大的。達拉，謝謝你。因此，讓我從更廣泛的類別開始，特別是口腔護理，我們真的很高興看到世界各地這些類別的銷量正成長。在許多銷售量出現負成長的地區，我們開始看到該類別在第四季末出現了轉折點。

So that gives us great confidence that the category and the pricing that we put in place is continuing to turn. And importantly, we're going to see that growth continue in 2024. As you bring that back to our business, a really strong quarter for Oral Care, as you mentioned, both from an organic and sales standpoint, but likewise, has that transferred into better market share growth?

因此，這讓我們充滿信心，我們所製定的品類和定價正在持續改變。重要的是，我們將看到這種成長在2024 年繼續。當你把這種成長帶回我們的業務時，正如你所提到的，從有機和銷售的角度來看，口腔護理行業將迎來一個非常強勁的季度，但同樣，這種成長是否已轉移更好的市場佔有率成長？

If I take oral care in general, we were up double digits in the quarter. That translated into strong market share growth, particularly in regions like Latin America, Europe, Africa, Eurasia, and you saw some improved scanner data in the U.S. as well. I think this is a reflection of the core business strategy that we have in place, the increased advertising that we're putting behind the business as well as a strong innovation pipeline that continued in the back half of 2023 and will continue in 2024 as well.

如果我大致考慮口腔護理，本季我們的業績成長了兩位數。這轉化為市場份額的強勁增長，特別是在拉丁美洲、歐洲、非洲、歐亞大陸等地區，您在美國也看到了一些改進的掃描儀數據。我認為這反映了我們現有的核心業務策略、我們在業務背後增加的廣告以及在 2023 年下半年持續並將在 2024 年持續的強大創新管道。

So market shares around the world is strong, and we would anticipate that, that will see continued growth as we move through the balance of '24. And I would caveat with some of that, obviously, the markets will be challenged given some of the upfront issues I mentioned but pleasing to see the strong volume growth in some of our bigger regions. If you take Latin America, particularly 3 strong quarters of strong volume growth very much driven by Oral Care. But quite frankly, that was a cross-section of all of our categories, and you see that volume improving across all of our divisions.

因此，全球市場份額強勁，我們預計，隨著 24 世紀的餘下時間的推移，市場份額將持續增長。我想警告一下，顯然，考慮到我提到的一些前期問題，市場將面臨挑戰，但很高興看到我們一些較大地區的銷量強勁增長。如果以拉丁美洲為例，尤其是口腔護理產品強勁成長的三個季度。但坦白說，這是我們所有類別的橫截面，你會看到我們所有部門的銷售量都在提高。

So again, I think we're well positioned on that. Let me talk a little bit about Pet because I think there's some important context to our strategy and why what we're doing is different for the market and what we're doing is working for the marketplace as well. We talked about Colgate being the most penetrated brand in the world. We also know that Hill's is low penetration. So we will continue to execute a series of differentiated strategies on Hill's in order to continue to accelerate our growth on that business.

再說一次，我認為我們在這方面處於有利地位。讓我談談 Pet，因為我認為我們的策略有一些重要的背景，以及為什麼我們正在做的事情對市場來說是不同的，而我們正在做的事情也適用於市場。我們談到高露潔是世界上滲透率最高的品牌。我們也知道希爾的滲透率較低。因此，我們將繼續對希爾執行一系列差異化策略，以繼續加速我們在該業務上的成長。

So if I take the 3 aspects that we think about for Hill's, reach, awareness and conversion. Reach, obviously, is a reflection of the strong advertising that we're putting in place to get the message out with low single-digit penetration on Hill's. We want to ensure the awareness of our superior science is well understood. Hence, the strategy to drive more TV spending, more digital spending through consistently through the quarters. We're spending a lot of time on the effectiveness of that reach to ensure that we're getting the awareness of it.

因此，如果我考慮我們對希爾的考慮的三個方面，即影響力、認知度和轉化率。顯然，覆蓋率反映了我們在 Hill's 上以低個位數的滲透率傳播訊息而投放的強大廣告。我們希望確保我們的卓越科學意識得到充分理解。因此，我們制定了持續推動更多電視支出和數位支出的策略。我們花了大量時間來研究該影響力的有效性，以確保我們能夠意識到這一點。

We're using obviously, a strong professional endorsement that we have behind vets and continue to accelerate our science and our clinical communication with that key opinion new leader is critical to the success of the brand and importantly, as we think about conversion, a lot of nonusers in the category, as I mentioned, I think, on the third quarter call, 5% of consumers are using a therapeutic nutrition, but theoretically, 80% should be using the therapeutic nutrition.

顯然，我們正在使用獸醫背後強大的專業認可，並繼續加速我們的科學和與關鍵意見新領導者的臨床溝通對於品牌的成功至關重要，重要的是，當我們考慮轉換時，很多正如我提到的，在該類別的非用戶中，我認為在第三季的電話會議上，5% 的消費者正在使用治療性營養品，但理論上，80% 的消費者應該使用治療性營養品。

So a lot of opportunity to continue to drive share. The dynamics in the category hence, you're seeing a little bit of trade down from wet into dry. I mentioned that on the third quarter call, treats have suffered. Now we're not immune to the category softness but if you take a step back and look at our principal retail environments, Pet specialty, neighborhood Pet, we're growing share nicely across all of those environments, which means we're helping our retail partners grow category dollars.

因此有很多機會繼續推動分享。因此，從該類別的動態來看，您會看到從濕型到乾型的一些變化。我在第三季電話會議上提到，招待受到了影響。現在我們也不能倖免於品類的疲軟，但如果你退後一步看看我們的主要零售環境、寵物專營、鄰裡寵物，我們在所有這些環境中的份額都在增長，這意味著我們正在幫助我們的零售合作夥伴增加品類收入。

Penetration was up roughly 10% in the U.S., our biggest and largest market. So we're very pleased with the progress we have there. Yes, the category is a little softer, but we have the right strategies and differentiated strategies in place to continue to accelerate growth.

我們最大且最大的市場美國的滲透率成長了約 10%。因此，我們對在那裡取得的進展感到非常滿意。是的，該類別有點疲軟，但我們有正確的策略和差異化策略來繼續加速成長。

The next question comes from Bryan Spillane with Bank of America.

下一個問題來自美國銀行的 Bryan Spillane。

Maybe this question both for Noel and Stan, just related to Argentina, I think there was maybe a write-down that ran through the other expense line. So if you could give us a little bit more color on that and how much of that may recur. And maybe, Noel, just kind of stepping back, I think this week, we've heard from several other companies who may be even rethinking how they approach Argentina, given the devaluation. It's been a while, right? Since we've had this kind of currency crisis in Latin America.

也許這個問題對諾埃爾和斯坦來說都與阿根廷有關，我認為可能存在透過其他費用線進行的減記。所以你能否給我們更多的信息，以及其中有多少可能會再次發生。諾埃爾，也許只是退一步，我想本週，我們聽到了其他幾家公司的消息，考慮到貨幣貶值，他們甚至可能正在重新考慮如何與阿根廷打交道。已經有一段時間了，對吧？由於拉丁美洲發生了這種貨幣危機。

So I don't know, just your perspective, both short term, how we should be thinking about it from accounting perspective stand? And then, Noel, just how you're thinking about Argentina maybe longer term.

所以我不知道，從你的角度來看，無論是短期的，我們該如何從會計的角度來思考它？然後，諾埃爾，您對阿根廷的長期看法如何。

Okay. Great. Bryan. Let me talk again a little bit of history in Argentina, and I apologize to go down with an extended answer, but I think it's important for the audience to understand how we operate in these hyper inflationary environments. We've been in Argentina close to 100 years. We have an extraordinarily capable management team that understands hyperinflationary accounting, understands how to manage the income statement and the balance sheet, understands how to prevent further devaluations on the balance sheet as we move forward.

好的。偉大的。布萊恩.讓我再談談阿根廷的一些歷史，我很抱歉給了一個長篇大論的答案，但我認為讓觀眾了解我們如何在這些惡性通貨膨脹的環境中運作是很重要的。我們在阿根廷已經近 100 年了。我們擁有一支非常有能力的管理團隊，他們了解惡性通貨膨脹會計，了解如何管理損益表和資產負債表，了解如何在我們前進的過程中防止資產負債表進一步貶值。

And that's a reflection of just years and years of experience dealing with this level of volatility. We can go back to 2001, 2002, which I think was the last major devaluation in the country 2014 had one as well. So we're very accustomed to ensuring we're doing everything to manage the potential volatility in a market like Argentina, and that experience has certainly played out. We have always, always continued to invest for the long term in Argentina.

這只是多年來處理這種波動水平的經驗的反映。我們可以追溯到 2001 年、2002 年，我認為這是全國最後一次大幅貶值，2014 年也有一次。因此，我們非常習慣確保盡一切努力來管理像阿根廷這樣的市場的潛在波動，而這種經驗肯定已經發揮了作用。我們始終、始終持續在阿根廷進行長期投資。

We have manufacturing on the ground. We have good relationships in terms of our ability to access dollars. But importantly, given some of the limitations that we've seen over the years on the ability to access dollars, we now have flexibility in the business to import product into the country as well. So we're very attuned to the volatility I would say, on the flip side, good news that price control seemed to have been settled a bit, and we're not going to see as much of those moving forward.

我們有實地生產。我們在獲取美元的能力方面擁有良好的關係。但重要的是，考慮到多年來我們在獲取美元方面遇到的一些限制，我們現在也可以靈活地將產品進口到該國。因此，我們非常適應波動性，我想說，另一方面，好消息是價格控制似乎已經解決了，我們不會看到太多的進展。

So we continue to operate in an environment where we can bring value to the consumer and take pricing in order to offset some of the significant transaction. Now we're not immune to the devaluation. We'll see that ultimately unfold as we go through the next couple of quarters, more on the margin line than the profit line. But ultimately, we will make sure we get pricing in the market, and that will sit -- take some time to flow through into the P&L.

因此，我們繼續在一個可以為消費者帶來價值的環境中運營，並透過定價來抵消一些重大交易。現在我們也不能免於貶值的影響。在接下來的幾個季度中，我們將看到這種情況最終會顯現出來，更多的是利潤線而不是利潤線。但最終，我們將確保我們在市場上定價，這將需要一些時間才能流入損益表。

But overall, experienced team, which I want to thank for their incredible diligence in how they deal with the economic environment there and feel pretty good that we've got real control of what's going on in Argentina, notwithstanding there will be continued volatility. So with that, let me give Stan a chance to talk a little bit about how we're managing more closely the income statement.

但總的來說，經驗豐富的團隊，我要感謝他們在如何處理那裡的經濟環境方面令人難以置信的勤奮，並且感覺非常好，我們已經真正控制了阿根廷正在發生的事情，儘管將會出現持續的波動。因此，讓我給史丹一個機會來談談我們如何更密切地管理損益表。

Thanks, Noel. And Bryan, let me start and pick up where Noel left off on the team. So as an example, we have a gentleman that I work with, Jose Fernando, and he is my CFO for Latin America. But he was also the CFO or the Finance Director in Argentina in 2002. So we have a depth of experience. And I think that manifests itself with a very proactive approach to market conditions.

謝謝，諾埃爾。布萊恩，讓我開始接續諾埃爾在球隊中留下的部分。舉個例子，我們有一位與我共事的先生，何塞·費爾南多（Jose Fernando），他是我拉丁美洲的財務長。但他也是 2002 年阿根廷的財務長或財務總監。所以我們有豐富的經驗。我認為這體現在對市場狀況採取非常積極主動的態度。

So he and I talk on a very regular basis about changing market conditions and then more importantly, the proactive nature of what we do about that. So they've operated in a hyperinflationary environment for a very long time. They take the actions necessary where we look at the long term. So while we operate hyperinflationary environment, we account for it appropriately, you do see the impact of the devaluation and other income, other expense it was not the majority of that line item.

因此，他和我經常討論不斷變化的市場狀況，更重要的是，討論我們為此採取的積極行動。因此，他們在惡性通貨膨脹環境中運作了很長一段時間。從長遠來看，他們採取了必要的行動。因此，當我們在惡性通貨膨脹環境中運作時，我們會對其進行適當的解釋，您確實會看到貶值和其他收入、其他支出的影響，但它並不是該行項目的大部分。

So there are other items in there. But we dealt with that. We delivered our overall numbers. We improved our productivity. We delivered margin expansion, profit expansion and cash flow so I think the team has done a very nice job looking at it proactively and dealing with it decisively. So you mentioned on a go-forward basis.

所以裡面還有其他的東西。但我們已經解決了這個問題。我們提供了總體數據。我們提高了生產力。我們實現了利潤率擴張、利潤擴張和現金流成長，因此我認為團隊做得非常好，積極主動地看待並果斷地處理它。所以你提到了前進的基礎。

Obviously, when you deval, your balance sheet gets smaller, we'll continue to take those actions going forward. We have a growing business there. So going forward, I would not anticipate a major impact to our results from Argentina.

顯然，當你貶值時，你的資產負債表就會變小，我們將繼續採取這些行動。我們在那裡的業務不斷增長。因此，展望未來，我預期阿根廷的業績不會受到重大影響。

The next question comes from Andrea Teixeira with JPMorgan.

下一個問題來自摩根大通的 Andrea Teixeira。

I was wondering if you can talk, Noel, a little bit more about marketing investments, and you elaborated just recently that you mentioned increased market advertising -- and are you also seeing a normalizing promotional environment in the past, you had said that you dialed down and you're reinvesting advertising promotional capabilities in the U.S.

諾埃爾，我想知道您是否可以多談談行銷投資，您最近詳細闡述了您提到的增加的市場廣告 - 您是否也看到了過去正常化的促銷環境，您曾說過您撥打過電話下降，您正在對美國的廣告促銷能力進行再投資

Can you comment on how you stand right now and how the category promotional levels are? And separately, if you can talk a bit about the supply chain changes that you implemented with the new leadership and also how you're positioning in light of the disruptions in the Middle East and the learnings from the panic.

您能否評價一下您目前的狀況以及品類促銷水平如何？另外，您能否談談您與新領導層一起實施的供應鏈變革，以及您如何根據中東的混亂情況以及從恐慌中學到的教訓進行定位。

Great. Andrea. So let me take the advertising and promotional piece, and I'll come back and add a little bit of context on some of the great work that Luciano has done as he's come into the new role. The strategy has been quite consistent for the last 3 to 4 years about our ability to drive -- build brands through great communication and great innovation. And you've seen that obviously flow through the P&L. And despite the fact that we have obviously grown and accelerated advertising meaningfully over the last couple of years, we've continued to deliver against our guidance and exceed our operating profit objectives, which is terrific.

偉大的。安德里亞.因此，讓我來談談廣告和促銷部分，然後我會回來添加一些背景信息，介紹盧西亞諾在擔任新角色時所做的一些偉大工作。在過去的三到四年裡，我們的策略一直非常一致，即透過良好的溝通和創新來推動我們建立品牌的能力。您已經看到這顯然貫穿了損益表。儘管事實上我們在過去幾年中明顯地成長並加速了廣告業務，但我們仍然繼續按照我們的指導方針交付並超越我們的營業利潤目標，這非常棒。

But that just gives you a sense for the health of the P&L today and our ability to continue to fund investment going forward, and that will clearly be our strategy. Now likewise, it gives us flexibility to be very focused on the efficiency of that spend. And I can assure you there's not a discussion that goes by where we don't talk about reach and frequency and the ROI associated with our spend both at the digital level and the linear TV level. So we're very, very, very focused on the ability to drive more efficiency through the P&L as we accelerate our advertising.

但這只是讓您了解當前損益表的健康狀況以及我們繼續為未來投資提供資金的能力，這顯然將成為我們的策略。現在同樣，它使我們能夠靈活地非常關注支出的效率。我可以向您保證，在所有討論中，我們都會討論覆蓋範圍、頻率以及與我們在數位層面和線性電視層面的支出相關的投資回報率。因此，當我們加速廣告投放時，我們非常非常非常注重透過損益表提高效率的能力。

And as we said in the prepared comments, we anticipate to continue to accelerate the advertising into 2024. Promotional environment is very constructive right now. I would say it's about 75% to 80% of the pre-COVID levels. So it's come down. It's more moderated. We -- as I've mentioned, in second and third quarter calls that we will be very selective on increasing the cadence of our promotions in some of the geographies where we may have taken a little bit too much pricing as we led in some of those markets that will be prudent and thoughtful and focused in certain select markets.

正如我們在準備好的評論中所說，我們預計到 2024 年將繼續加快廣告投放速度。目前的促銷環境非常有建設性。我想說這大約是新冠疫情前水準的 75% 到 80%。所以就下來了。它更加溫和。正如我所提到的，在第二季和第三季的電話會議中，我們將非常有選擇性地增加某些地區的促銷節奏，在這些地區，我們可能採取了過高的定價，因為我們在某些地區處於領先地位。那些將謹慎、深思熟慮並專注於某些特定市場的市場。

But overall, the promotional environment seems very constructive. And our objective is to drive category and healthy volume growth through obviously the accelerated advertising line. On the supply chain, Luciano has come in and really thinking about the continued transformation of that, bringing a lot of good ideas on automation and data analytics and driving network optimization. A lot of our focus over the last couple of years, particularly at Hill's was increasing capacity, and you saw that through our capital expenditure line.

但整體而言，促銷環境似乎非常有建設性。我們的目標是透過加速廣告系列來推動品類和銷售的健康成長。在供應鏈方面，盧西亞諾介入並真正思考供應鏈的持續轉型，帶來了許多關於自動化和數據分析以及推動網路優化的好想法。過去幾年，我們的重點是增加產能，尤其是 Hill's，您可以透過我們的資本支出線看到這一點。

That will moderate as we move forward with some more spending being allocated towards efficiency and savings and optimizing the network and very much digitizing the supply chain and getting very aggressive on using data analytics to optimize our efficiency and our case field level. So overall, pleased with where he's taking the group and that team has done just an extraordinary job getting us ready for further optimization moving forward.

隨著我們繼續將更多支出分配給效率和節省、優化網路、大力數位化供應鏈以及非常積極地使用數據分析來優化我們的效率和案例現場水平，這種情況將會有所緩解。總的來說，我對他帶領團隊取得的成績感到滿意，而團隊做了出色的工作，讓我們為進一步優化做好準備。

And Andrea, I'll just pick up on your last comment around the issues out in the Red Sea and the shipping. So we've been also proactive on that, looking at alternate methods where available, planning for the lead time disruption. And the rest of the supply chain has remained stable, so we don't see issues there but we have anticipated longer lead times and planned appropriately for 2024.

安德里亞（Andrea），我將聽取您最後關於紅海和航運問題的評論。因此，我們也一直在積極主動地尋找可用的替代方法，並為交貨時間中斷做好規劃。供應鏈的其餘部分保持穩定，因此我們沒有看到那裡的問題，但我們預計交貨時間會更長，並為 2024 年做好了適當的計劃。

The next question comes from Filippo Falorni with Citi.

下一個問題來自花旗銀行的 Filippo Falorni。

So Noel, going back to Health, clearly, high single-digit top line growth, excluding the private label, discontinuation, very strong results in the quarter. As you think about '24, like, can you give us a sense of how you see the volume for that business evolving and also the pricing environment in Pet food? And then at the margin line, you saw a pretty significant cost headwinds in 2023. Are you seeing any moderation on the cultural and protein side for the Hill's business?

所以諾埃爾，回到健康領域，顯然，高個位數的收入成長，不包括自有品牌、停產，本季的業績非常強勁。當您想到「24」時，您能否讓我們了解您如何看待該業務的發展以及寵物食品的定價環境？然後，在利潤率方面，您會看到 2023 年將面臨相當大的成本阻力。您認為 Hill 的業務在文化和蛋白質方面是否有所放緩？

Filippo. We see more balanced volume and price as we move into 2024. Obviously, we've had roughly 6 quarters of aggressive pricing 7 quarters where we've had to take pricing to offset a lot of the inflation that we've seen in agricultural products. To get to your second part of your question, we do see ag prices beginning to moderate, which is good, which over time, as we see the pricing settle out in the markets, we anticipate that volume will come back.

菲利波.進入 2024 年，我們看到數量和價格更加平衡。顯然，我們已經有大約 6 個季度的激進定價，其中 7 個季度我們不得不採取定價措施來抵消農產品中的大量通膨。為了回答你問題的第二部分，我們確實看到農產品價格開始放緩，這是好事，隨著時間的推移，當我們看到市場定價穩定下來時，我們預計成交量將會回升。

But remember, this is the one category we compete in where we've seen prolonged inflation as we move through the back half of 2023. But we anticipate that will definitely moderate as we move into 2024, and pricing likewise, will moderate, and we'll see a return to really continuing to drive that successful household penetration number that I shared with you earlier which is obviously our ability to continue to support strong advertising.

但請記住，這是我們競爭的一個類別，隨著2023 年下半年的到來，我們看到了長期的通貨膨脹。但我們預計，隨著我們進入2024 年，通貨膨脹肯定會放緩，定價同樣也會放緩，我們將看到真正繼續推動我之前與您分享的成功家庭滲透率數字的回歸，這顯然是我們繼續支持強大廣告的能力。

So overall, we'll see that more balanced growth as we move through 2024. And on the margin line, as I mentioned again, a more moderating cost. We're still lapping some of the strong inflationary environments that we had in the first half of last year. So that pricing that we've taken in the back half of this year and early in the quarter, will stay, but we'll see the volumes start to come back as we move through the back half of the year more meaningfully.

因此，總體而言，隨著 2024 年的到來，我們將看到更平衡的成長。正如我再次提到的，在利潤線上，成本將更加溫和。我們仍在經歷去年上半年的一些強勁通膨環境。因此，我們在今年下半年和本季初採取的定價將保持不變，但隨著我們更有意義地度過今年下半年，我們將看到銷售量開始回升。

The next question comes from Callum Elliott with Bernstein.

下一個問題來自卡勒姆·艾利奧特和伯恩斯坦。

Really good to see the big uptick in brand spending this year and the success is having on competitive performance and growth. My question is, can you talk about some of the other investment buckets outside of advertising and brand spend I'm thinking R&D, CapEx, some of the more infrastructure capability investments that sit in the P&L. Where are you guys today now versus where you think you need to be?

很高興看到今年品牌支出的大幅上升，並且成功在於具有競爭力的業績和成長。我的問題是，您能談談廣告和品牌支出以外的其他一些投資嗎？我正在考慮研發、資本支出、損益表中的一些更多基礎設施能力投資。你們現在在哪裡，與你們認為自己需要去的地方相比，你們現在在哪裡？

And what's the relative importance of these nonbrand spend buckets in your view?

您認為這些非品牌支出的相對重要性是什麼？

Yes, Callum, a good question because we've talked a lot about positioning ourselves to win in the short term, but more importantly, succeed consistently in the long term. And that has been a lot around obviously the advertising investment. But as you well point out, investing in other areas, specifically capabilities, our digital transformation, would be at the forefront of that, training and developing talent, bringing in talent, ensuring that we're optimizing our agency and the talent that they have on that side.

是的，卡勒姆，這是一個很好的問題，因為我們已經討論了很多關於如何在短期內獲勝的問題，但更重要的是，要在長期內持續取得成功。這顯然與廣告投資有關。但正如您所指出的，投資其他領域，特別是能力，我們的數位轉型，將是最重要的，培訓和發展人才，引進人才，確保我們優化我們的機構和他們擁有的人才在那一邊。

So that's an important part of ultimately building the capabilities to continue to drive the effectiveness of our spend and ultimately setting ourselves up for better data architecture and the infrastructure required to do that and do it consistently over the long term. So a lot of investment going in that space as well. On the capital side, we've had, obviously, a lot of spending on the capital side in terms of increased capacity.

因此，這是最終建立能力的重要組成部分，以繼續提高我們支出的有效性，並最終為我們自己建立更好的資料架構和基礎設施，並長期一致地做到這一點。因此，該領域也有大量投資。在資本方面，顯然，我們在增加產能方面投入了大量資金。

As I mentioned earlier, we're going to see that start to shift to a lot more optimization and savings projects moving through our manufacturing facilities. As I mentioned earlier, setting up infrastructure for our data architecture and our data transformation so overall, these are all investments for the long term that we think will continue to play out and allow us to drive that consistent earnings growth that we talked about earlier. Stan, anything to add to that?

正如我之前提到的，我們將看到我們的製造設施開始轉向更多的最佳化和節省項目。正如我之前提到的，為我們的數據架構和數據轉換建立基礎設施，總的來說，這些都是長期投資，我們認為這些投資將繼續發揮作用，並使我們能夠推動我們之前談到的持續獲利成長。史丹，還有什麼要補充的嗎？

Callum, the only thing I'd say is when you look at the face of the income statement or balance sheet, the absolute numbers, it doesn't reflect the one of our key jobs here is to allocate resources and we reallocate to those high-growth areas or the areas with the most potential.

卡勒姆，我唯一要說的是，當你查看損益表或資產負債表的絕對數字時，它並沒有反映出我們的關鍵工作之一是分配資源，我們將資源重新分配給那些高- 增長領域或最具潛力的領域。

While that may not show on the absolute line underneath the covers, that reallocation of resources, whether it's dollars or human capacity is what supports us in analytics and digital and data and that's for Hannah and to enhance all those capabilities. So lots of work under the covers to drive resource to those key areas.

雖然這可能不會在幕後的絕對路線上顯示出來，但資源的重新分配，無論是美元還是人力能力，都是我們在分析、數字和數據方面的支持，這對漢娜來說是為了增強所有這些能力。為了將資源推向這些關鍵領域，需要進行大量的幕後工作。

And I'd mentioned very indirectly tied to your question, is the strong cash flow, right? The cash flow is giving us the ability to have a lot more flexibility in how we invest across the business, and that is pleasingly up significantly, as you saw in the quarter and the year.

我提到與你的問題非常間接相關的是，現金流是否強勁，對嗎？現金流使我們能夠在整個業務的投資方式上擁有更大的靈活性，正如您在本季度和本年度看到的那樣，現金流顯著增加，令人高興。

The next question comes from Steve Powers with Deutsche Bank.

下一個問題來自德意志銀行的史蒂夫鮑爾斯。

I wanted to ask about gross margin. It was obviously very strong in the quarter and you expect progress in '24. Maybe just some perspective on the work you've done to get here, the drivers this quarter. But then also, as we look at '24, I'm assuming from a year-over-year perspective, that expansion is heavily weighted to the first part of the year. But sequentially, how should we think about gross margin? Is the fourth quarter a high watermark? Or is there a sequential progress that can be made?

我想問一下毛利率。本季的表現顯然非常強勁，您預計 24 年會取得進展。也許只是對您為到達這裡所做的工作（本季的驅動因素）的一些看法。但另一方面，當我們審視 24 年時，我假設從同比的角度來看，擴張主要集中在今年上半年。但接下來，我們該如何考慮毛利率？第四季是高水位線嗎？或是可以取得連續的進展？

Yes. Let me top line, and I'll let Stan answer a couple of questions. Obviously, I think that pricing, I think cost, I think foreign exchange is obviously the big drivers in the cost line for us. So we've done a terrific job in delivering strong funding to growth. I think a lot of opportunities as we head to supply chain settling down our ability to start ramping up a lot of the projects that were in many respects on back burner during COVID. That has allowed us to drive strong funding to growth. We anticipate that, that will continue as we move forward into 2024. The pricing has been a big part of the gross margin expansion that we've been very aggressive with over the last 6 quarters.

是的。首先，我將讓史丹回答幾個問題。顯然，我認為定價、成本、外匯顯然是我們成本線的主要驅動因素。因此，我們在為成長提供強有力的資金方面做得非常出色。我認為，當我們走向供應鏈時，我們有很多機會確定我們開始加強許多項目的能力，而這些項目在新冠疫情期間在許多方面都處於次要地位。這使我們能夠推動強勁的資金成長。我們預計，隨著進入 2024 年，這種情況將繼續下去。定價是毛利率擴張的重要組成部分，我們在過去 6 個季度一直非常積極地擴張毛利率。

Yes, pricing will be more balanced as we move forward. So you would anticipate that will be a lesser impact as we move through the gross profit and raw materials will continue to, I think, be inflationary, but far more benign than we've seen in the past, and there's clearly a moderation there. So ultimately, hopefully, an opportunity for us. With that, let me turn it over to Stan to give you a little bit more construct to that.

是的，隨著我們的前進，定價將會更加平衡。因此，你會預計，隨著我們毛利的變化，我認為，原材料將繼續通膨，但影響會較小，但比我們過去看到的要溫和得多，而且顯然有適度的影響。所以最終，希望這對我們來說是一個機會。接下來，讓我把它交給史丹，讓你對此有更多的了解。

So first, we're very pleased with the progress on gross profit through 2023. We had sequential improvement across the categories driven by a broad base of innovation, productivity that helped offset that commodity situation that we all had to deal with. Now as you think about going forward, coming off of Q4, there are a number of items that always impact the timing, Q4 to Q1.

首先，我們對 2023 年毛利的進展感到非常滿意。在廣泛的創新和生產力基礎的推動下，我們在各個類別上取得了連續改善，這有助於抵消我們所有人都必須應對的商品狀況。現在，當您考慮第四季度的未來時，有許多項目總是會影響第四季度到第一季的時間表。

And this year, there's a couple of new ones with a little bit of Argentina, timing of some events worldwide, like Chinese New Year, the timing of when that occurs and where some of this price rolls through, roll through from 2023 and incremental new price. So as we go through the year, we expect that, that will expand, but not at the same kind of levels, obviously, as 2023.

今年，有一些新的內容涉及阿根廷、世界範圍內一些事件的時間安排，例如中國新年、發生時間以及部分價格的滾動、從 2023 年開始滾動以及增量新的價格。因此，隨著這一年的到來，我們預計這一數字將會擴大，但顯然不會達到 2023 年的水準。

So working through that, the teams are focused on productivity. The balance of the top line will change from pricing being the predominant driver to pricing and volume and that productivity will help us drive the margin improvement as we go through the year.

因此，透過這個過程，團隊將重點放在生產力上。收入的平衡將從定價作為主要驅動因素轉變為定價和銷售，而生產力將幫助我們在這一年中推動利潤率的提高。

Yes. I would just simply underscore that there will be a sequential impact at the margin line on Argentina as we will take pricing in the quarter, but that will take a while to flow through to recover the transaction impact of the deval.

是的。我只是簡單地強調，由於我們將在本季度定價，因此阿根廷的邊際線將會受到連續影響，但這需要一段時間才能恢復貶值的交易影響。

The next question comes from Peter Grom with UBS.

下一個問題來自瑞銀集團的彼得‧葛羅姆。

So I wanted to ask specifically about Latin America volume performance up 8% this quarter, 3 straight quarters of growth. And I recognize that the comps are somewhat easy, but the growth is still really impressive. Can you maybe just unpack how much of that is a function of category growth versus share performance? And really, how does that inform your view on volume growth looking out to '24 in Latin America specifically?

因此，我想具體詢問拉丁美洲銷量表現，本季成長 8%，連續 3 個季度成長。我認識到這些比較有些簡單，但成長仍然令人印象深刻。您能否解釋一下其中有多少是類別成長與股票表現的函數？事實上，這對您對拉丁美洲 24 世紀銷售成長的看法有什麼影響？

We talked about it, I think, on the second and third call -- on third quarter call that the strength of our Latin America business and ultimately, our ability to lead in pricing and then the consistent history we have of seeing volume return to the categories. And so if I talk at the category level first, what's great is we've seen all 3 of the categories in which we compete, inflect positively from a category standpoint.

我想，我們在第二次和第三次電話會議上討論了這一點——在第三季度的電話會議上，我們討論了我們拉丁美洲業務的實力，最終討論了我們在定價方面領先的能力，以及我們看到銷量恢復到正常水平的一貫歷史。類別。因此，如果我先在類別層面上談談，那麼很棒的是，我們已經看到我們競爭的所有 3 個類別從類別的角度來看都發生了積極的變化。

And you've obviously seen us growing quite considerably on the volume side, the last 3 quarters, which is generating good volume share growth for our business. So we're very pleased with the overall performance there. And based on where we see the categories inflecting right now, we're pretty confident that we're going to continue to see what balanced growth as we move forward. We'll have to take some currency pricing for sure through the year.

您顯然已經看到我們在過去三個季度的銷量方面取得了相當大的成長，這為我們的業務帶來了良好的銷售份額成長。所以我們對那裡的整體表現非常滿意。根據我們目前看到的類別的變化，我們非常有信心，隨著我們的前進，我們將繼續看到平衡的成長。全年我們肯定必須採取一些貨幣定價。

But as we've indicated before, we would expect the volume to come back in these markets, and that's exactly what we're seeing. If you drill down to some of our biggest markets, particularly Brazil and Latin -- and Mexico, really strong quarter for both those markets with double-digit volume growth for Brazil and for -- and strong double-digit growth for Mexico as well.

但正如我們之前指出的，我們預計這些市場的銷售將會回升，而這正是我們所看到的。如果你深入研究我們一些最大的市場，特別是巴西和拉丁市場以及墨西哥，這兩個市場的季度表現都非常強勁，巴西和墨西哥的銷量增長都達到了兩位數，墨西哥也實現了強勁的兩位數增長。

So again, a clear indication that the strategy of putting in strong innovation across all price points, getting the advertising, which we accelerated in the fourth quarter, likewise in Latin America is helping to recover the categories and drive good volume market share in that business.

因此，這再次清楚地表明，我們在第四季度加快了在所有價位上進行強有力的創新和廣告投放的戰略，同樣在拉丁美洲，這有助於恢復品類並推動該業務的良好銷量市場份額。

The next question comes from Nik Modi with RBC Capital Markets.

下一個問題來自加拿大皇家銀行資本市場的尼克莫迪。

Just wanted to follow up maybe on the raw material packaging inflation. Just some more perspective you cited specialty products. I just wanted to get some context around that and what exactly some of those elements are.

只是想跟進原物料包裝通膨情況。只是您引用了更多特色產品的觀點。我只是想了解一些相關背景以及其中一些元素到底是什麼。

Sure. Let me throw that one to Stan and he can give you a little bit more context there.

當然。讓我把這個交給史丹，他可以給你更多的背景資訊。

Sure. Unlike the prior 2 years, we don't expect a material impact here. So we see modest inflation in 2024 and there are some areas like every year that go up and down. But there are some new ones this year, things like fish oil has increased significantly. But overall, we expect modest inflation. And so while commodities overall are off of their highs, they're still elevated versus pre-COVID levels.

當然。與前兩年不同，我們預計不會產生實質影響。因此，我們預期 2024 年通膨會溫和，有些領域會像每年一樣上下波動。但是今年有一些新的東西，像魚油之類的東西明顯增加了。但總體而言，我們預期通膨溫和。因此，儘管大宗商品總體已脫離高點，但與新冠疫情爆發前的水平相比仍處於較高水平。

And we expect that as we go through this, there might be a little bit of benefit moving in our favor, but not dramatically. And the only thing I'd say after that is raw materials are one component. So we deal with conversion costs, we deal with transport and logistics costs, and we drive productivity across all these areas through our Funding the Growth program, and that's why we're confident on margin expansion for 2024.

我們預計，當我們經歷這個過程時，可能會帶來一些對我們有利的好處，但不會很大。之後我唯一要說的是原料是一種成分。因此，我們處理轉換成本、運輸和物流成本，並透過成長融資計劃提高所有這些領域的生產力，這就是我們對 2024 年利潤率擴張充滿信心的原因。

And Stan, if I could just follow up on Filippo's question. I think he was asking on proteins as it relates to Hill. So you cited ag costs, but maybe you just comment on protein? and what your seeing...

史丹，我能否跟進菲利波的問題。我認為他問的是與希爾有關的蛋白質。所以你引用了農業成本，但也許你只是評論蛋白質？以及你所看到的...

Yes. Pleasingly, at least at the current point in time, we're not seeing an impact to Hill's in total on an increased basis year-on-year. So we look in total around Hills as ag has kind of stabilized here a bit as well as proteins, we don't see a big headwind heading into 2024 based on total for commodities for Hill's.

是的。令人高興的是，至少在目前的時間點上，我們沒有看到對希爾的整體影響比去年同期增加。因此，我們從 Hills 的整體情況來看，因為農產品和蛋白質都已經穩定下來，根據 Hills 的商品總量，我們認為進入 2024 年不會出現太大的阻力。

And that's important because as we drive productivity with modest levels of flow-through on price and the innovation that will allow us to continue to expand margin on the Hill's portfolio.

這很重要，因為我們透過適度的價格流通和創新來提高生產力，這將使我們能夠繼續擴大 Hill 投資組合的利潤率。

The next question comes from Chris Carey with Wells Fargo.

下一個問題來自富國銀行的克里斯凱裡。

So I wanted to ask about productivity and maybe go down to the regional level. I think this was the best productivity in our model anyway. It's going back roughly 20 years. And so is there anything abnormal about this quarter, any pull forward or productivity? Or are we talking about maybe just productivity muscle continues to build here? And that this is something that we can think about being at a slightly higher run rate go forward.

所以我想詢問生產力的問題，或許還可以深入地區層次。無論如何，我認為這是我們模型中最好的生產力。事情要追溯到大約20年前。那麼本季有什麼異常情況嗎？有任何推進或生產力嗎？或者我們正在談論的也許只是這裡的生產力實力繼續增強？我們可以考慮以稍高的運行率繼續前進。

And then just connected to that, this was the best North America margin we've seen in some time. Was there any outsized productivity benefit in the quarter? Or are you just starting to see some easing costs and better efficiency relative to the stabilization we're seeing in the business.

與此相關的是，這是我們一段時間以來見過的最好的北美利潤率。本季是否有任何巨大的生產力提升？或者，相對於我們在業務中看到的穩定，您是否剛開始看到一些成本的緩解和更高的效率。

Yes. Thanks, Chris. Yes, a little bit of all of that, quite frankly. Obviously, with the incredible inflation that we've seen over the last 1.5 years across the bulk of our commodity basket we've had to obviously accelerate the funding the growth and the higher cost obviously have allowed us to generate higher funding the growth. As I mentioned earlier, a lot more efficiency in the plants and our ability to utilize our manufacturing facilities to drive more of the funding the growth projects has likewise allowed us to step up a little bit of that funding to growth in 2023 that we historically had not -- had the time to do.

是的。謝謝，克里斯。是的，坦白說，所有這些都有一點點。顯然，由於過去 1.5 年我們看到大部分商品籃子出現令人難以置信的通貨膨脹，我們必須大幅加快為成長提供資金，而更高的成本顯然使我們能夠為成長提供更高的資金。正如我之前提到的，工廠效率的提高以及我們利用製造設施為增長項目提供更多資金的能力同樣使我們能夠在 2023 年增加一點增長資金，這是我們歷史上所擁有的沒有——有時間去做。

So a bit of it will be symptomatic of the year and the opportunity but I think the discipline that we've ingrained and the culture that we have at Colgate around funding the growth in parallel, likewise with the global productivity initiative that we put in place has allowed us to generate obviously strong contraction in our costs overall. I wouldn't say use it as a benchmark for going forward. There will be a lot of moving parts to that, but we feel like structurally, we're in a better place on funding the growth.

因此，其中一些將是今年和機會的症狀，但我認為我們在高露潔根深蒂固的紀律和文化圍繞為增長提供並行資金，同樣與我們實施的全球生產力計劃一樣使我們的整體成本明顯大幅收縮。我不會說用它作為前進的基準。這將會有很多變化，但我們覺得從結構上來說，我們在為成長提供資金方面處於更好的位置。

Structurally, we've managed to execute the GPI in line and slightly towards the high end of the guidance range that we provided earlier on that initiative. So we feel like we're in a good place. Pricing will moderate, so it's important that we continue to generate the strong funding the growth and through the P&L in order to generate the margin growth that Stan talked about.

從結構上講，我們已經成功地執行了 GPI，並略微接近我們之前就該計劃提供的指導範圍的高端。所以我們感覺我們處於一個很好的位置。定價將會放緩，因此我們必須繼續透過損益表為成長提供強勁的資金，以實現史丹談到的利潤成長。

The next question comes from Olivia Tong with Raymond James.

下一個問題來自 Olivia Tong 和 Raymond James。

Just wanted to ask you a little bit about the top line, obviously, coming off a very impressive 7% top line growth in Q4. The guide for the fiscal year at sort of 3% to 5%. Can you just provide some perspective thinking about first half versus second half, perhaps the cadence of volume growth is the pricing contribution sort of begins to lap?

只是想問您關於營收的一些情況，顯然，第四季營收成長了 7%，令人印象深刻。本財年的指導值為 3% 至 5%。您能否提供一些關於上半年和下半年的觀點，也許銷售成長的節奏是定價貢獻開始下降？

And then similarly on EPS, obviously, a very strong '23 in Q4, talking about the mid- to high single digits. That, of course, that range implies potential for growth deceleration in 2024. So just talk about what has to happen to get to the high end and what you incorporate in terms of the low end and perhaps an incremental conservatism built into the guide?

然後，每股盈餘也同樣如此，顯然，第四季的 23 年業績非常強勁，處於中高個位數。當然，這個範圍意味著 2024 年成長減速的可能性。那麼，只需談談要達到高端必鬚髮生什麼，以及您在低端方面納入了哪些內容，也許還有指南中內置的增量保守主義？

Thanks, Olivia. So as I said in my upfront comments, we believe we are well positioned to deliver consistent compounded earnings growth moving forward. And that's certainly reflected in our guidance in the range that we provided. We have a good strong momentum coming out of '23 and heading into '24. And I think most importantly, the flexibility in the P&L and the balance sheet has allowed us to set ourselves up for continued success.

謝謝，奧莉維亞。因此，正如我在前面的評論中所說，我們相信我們有能力實現未來持續的複合獲利成長。這肯定反映在我們提供的範圍內的指導中。從 23 年到 24 年，我們有著良好的強勁勢頭。我認為最重要的是，損益表和資產負債表的靈活性使我們能夠為持續的成功做好準備。

As we look at the cadence of that, we will see the balance overall change as we lap the higher pricing that we've had through the bulk of 2023, that will rebalance itself down to be sure and we'll see the volume come back in the categories. As I talked about earlier and ultimately, our focus on driving household penetration with the increased advertising and the market share position that we have. So we think we're in a good position.

當我們觀察這種節奏時，我們將看到平衡的整體變化，因為我們在 2023 年大部分時間都採用了較高的定價，這肯定會重新平衡，我們會看到銷量回昇在類別中。正如我之前和最後談到的，我們的重點是透過增加廣告和我們擁有的市場份額地位來推動家庭滲透率。所以我們認為我們處於有利位置。

Comps will get tougher as you say, but we feel that we'll see the volume growth come back and we'll offer balanced growth throughout the balance of the year. Now recognize that we still have some inflationary markets, Argentina, we talked about, obviously, Nigeria and Turkey that will drive some pricing. We've got some flow through. Most of the pricing we'll see in 2024 will be pricing flow through. We are going to take a little bit of new pricing in certain select markets. But overall, we're going to see a much better balance, as I mentioned upfront. How that ultimately unfolds we shall see but we're definitely planning for more balanced growth as we move through the back half of this year.

正如你所說，競爭將會變得更加艱難，但我們認為我們會看到銷量成長回來，並且我們將在今年餘下的時間裡提供平衡的成長。現在認識到我們仍然有一些通膨市場，阿根廷，我們顯然談到了尼日利亞和土耳其，這將推動一些定價。我們已經有了一些流量。我們將在 2024 年看到的大部分定價將是定價流程。我們將在某些特定市場採取一些新的定價。但總的來說，正如我之前提到的，我們將看到更好的平衡。最終如何發展我們將拭目以待，但我們肯定會在今年下半年計劃實現更平衡的成長。

The next question comes from Kaumil Gajrawala with Jefferies.

下一個問題來自 Jefferies 的 Kaumil Gajrawala。

Could you maybe just give us a kind of state of play in China, starting maybe with the market and then getting into your business specifically?

您能否為我們介紹中國的情況，也許從市場開始，然後專門進入您的業務？

Sure. Kaumil. China, you've heard it, I think, consistently throughout the earnings season so far that there's a real slowdown in China, and we're not immune to that slowdown. I will say with respect to some of the numbers out that we feel we've performed very, very well across Greater China.

當然。考米爾。中國，我想你已經聽說過，到目前為止，在整個財報季中，中國經濟確實出現了放緩，而我們也不能倖免。我想說的是，就一些數據而言，我們認為我們在大中華區的表現非常非常好。

Our business roughly down low to mid-single digits and that was very much commensurate with the category declines that we saw in those markets. But clearly, on the skin health side, we've seen a more acute decline in the categories and therefore, a bigger decline in our business as well. Long term, the market fundamentals remain intact. And I think it will take some time as we move through 2024 for those markets to come back.

我們的業務大致下降到中個位數，這與我們在這些市場看到的類別下降非常相稱。但顯然，在皮膚健康方面，我們看到該類別的下降更為嚴重，因此我們的業務也出現了更大的下降。長期來看，市場基本面保持完好。我認為，隨著 2024 年的到來，這些市場需要一段時間才能恢復。

Obviously, a lot of stimulus money, as you've read, going back into the market, but we shall see the impact that has on consumers and consumption. But we think we're well positioned. The business continues to build share on the Colgate side. We talked about the Hawley & Hazel. We think we're now shipping more closely to consumption as we move through the price increase and some of the inventory allocations that we've seen across the trade and we've got a strong innovation pipeline for next year, but we will be thoughtful and prudent on our investment structure in China until we see the categories come back to the levels that invite us to invest more.

顯然，正如您所讀到的那樣，大量刺激資金返回市場，但我們將看到這對消費者和消費的影響。但我們認為我們處於有利位置。高露潔方面的業務持續擴大份額。我們談論了霍利和黑茲爾。我們認為，隨著我們在整個行業中看到的價格上漲和一些庫存分配，我們現在的運輸更加接近消費，並且我們明年擁有強大的創新管道，但我們會深思熟慮對我們在中國的投資結構持謹慎態度，直到我們看到這些類別回到吸引我們進行更多投資的水平。

But we feel long term, a good market and the dynamics are there, but we want to be thoughtful in the short term.

但我們認為從長遠來看，市場良好且充滿活力，但我們希望在短期內深思熟慮。

The next question comes from Lauren Lieberman with Barclays.

下一個問題來自巴克萊銀行的勞倫·利伯曼。

On North America, it was great to see volumes inflect a positive this quarter, and you called out growth not just in Oral Care, but also in bar soap, liquid hand soap and cleaners. So I know there's a lot of things that kind of contribute to that better performance. You mentioned more balanced promotions. But was wondering if you spend a little bit of time talking about innovation across the business and any plans for '24.

在北美，很高興看到本季銷售量出現積極成長，您不僅指出了口腔護理領域的成長，還指出了肥皂、洗手液和清潔劑領域的成長。所以我知道有很多因素有助於提高性能。您提到了更平衡的促銷活動。但我想知道您是否花一點時間討論整個企業的創新以及 24 世紀的任何計劃。

And maybe also if you could talk a little bit about any plans you may have around hand dish and plans to kind of stabilize and regain share in that business?

也許您也可以談談您圍繞手碟可能有的任何計劃以及穩定並重新獲得該業務份額的計劃？

Lauren. I can't really talk specifically to the innovation that we have in 2024. But I can say, obviously, that we've got a strong pipeline and a much more balanced pipeline across all of our businesses. The acceleration in advertising is thoughtful and strategic as well that we will support more of our businesses in North America. I think that's a reflection of the really strong operating profit growth that we've reinjected back into the business.

勞倫.我無法具體談論我們在 2024 年的創新。但我可以說，顯然，我們在所有業務中都有強大的管道和更平衡的管道。廣告業務的加速發展是深思熟慮且具有策略意義的，我們將支持我們在北美的更多業務。我認為這反映了我們重新註入業務的真正強勁的營業利潤成長。

So we feel like we're in a much better place to support some of the categories that had been -- that had been declining in advertising over the years. So we feel we're in a good place to reflect continued growth on the volume side. Obviously, the pricing will moderate quite considerably in the U.S. as we move through 2024. And we've got a strong innovation pipeline across the categories in order to ensure that we continue to drive market share. The other aspect of it is, as I've talked about, a more balanced cadence of promotions, and we will make sure we execute those very, very thoughtfully.

因此，我們覺得我們處於一個更好的位置來支持一些多年來廣告數量一直在下降的類別。因此，我們認為我們處於一個很好的位置來反映銷售方面的持續成長。顯然，隨著 2024 年的到來，美國的定價將大幅下降。而且我們在各個類別上都擁有強大的創新管道，以確保我們繼續提高市場份額。正如我所談到的，另一個方面是更平衡的促銷節奏，我們將確保我們非常非常深思熟慮地執行這些促銷活動。

We have no intentions on going back to the historical numbers there, but we feel we've got some opportunities in select accounts in select parts of the country in order to accelerate where we've seen competition be quite aggressive. So good position. Really happy with the health of the P&L. Really happy with the advertising that we put back in the P&L, which will bode well for the long-term health of that business.

我們無意回到那裡的歷史數字，但我們認為我們在該國某些地區的某些客戶中擁有一些機會，以便在我們看到競爭相當激烈的地方加速發展。位置這麼好。對損益表的健康狀況非常滿意。我們對計入損益表的廣告感到非常滿意，這對該業務的長期健康發展來說是個好兆頭。

The next question comes from Mark Astrachan with Stifel.

下一個問題來自 Stifel 的 Mark Astrachan。

2 questions for me. One, on North America. So global market share better in North America markets for toothpaste, a little bit weaker advertising spend obviously increased 4Q and for the year. How much is the right level? And is there a correlation in the U.S. between advertising and volume performance?

問我 2 個問題。一、關於北美。因此，牙膏北美市場的全球市佔率較好，廣告支出稍弱，第四季和全年的廣告支出明顯增加。多少水平合適？在美國，廣告和銷售表現之間是否有相關性？

Is there more to it than that R&D, whatever it's curious there. And then on the Hill's business, given the weakness in Pet specialty channel, has it made you think at all about whether your distribution mix in terms of where the product is sold, is it right at this point? Or do you potentially think about expanding that to other retailer areas.

除了研發之外還有更多的事情嗎，不管它有什麼好奇的。然後，在希爾的業務上，鑑於寵物專業管道的弱點，它是否讓您思考您的分銷組合在產品銷售地點方面是否正確？或者您是否可能考慮將其擴展到其他零售商領域。

Mark. So North America first. Clearly, we're trying to get much more balanced investment across North America. We needed to get the P&L particularly the middle P&L in the right shape, and that was a strategic choice that we made. A strategic choice enabled by, I think, the broadness of health of our business around the world that has allowed us to obviously accelerate the investment in North America as we took more pricing in the market.

標記。所以首先是北美。顯然，我們正在努力在整個北美地區實現更平衡的投資。我們需要讓損益表，特別是中間的損益表處於正確的形狀，這是我們所做的策略選擇。我認為，這個策略選擇是由於我們在全球範圍內業務的廣泛健康狀況所促成的，這使我們能夠在市場上獲得更多定價時明顯加快在北美的投資。

So we have a strong innovation pipeline. We anticipate that we'll continue to increase our investment levels. This is not for the short term, this is for the long-term health of that business, which we believe to be a very, very vital market for our success in the future. And we've seen the benefits coming through across our overall consumption. I see Some -- a little softness in the Nielsen track channels, I'll say that our nontrack channels are growing at 3 to 4 of multiple of the tracked channels.

因此，我們擁有強大的創新管道。我們預計我們將繼續提高投資水準。這不是為了短期利益，而是為了該業務的長期健康發展，我們相信這對我們未來的成功來說是一個非常非常重要的市場。我們已經看到了我們整體消費所帶來的好處。我看到一些 - 尼爾森追蹤頻道有點軟，我會說我們的非追蹤頻道正在以追蹤頻道的 3 到 4 倍的速度成長。

So we feel the overall investment in its entirety is proving to grow the consumption and the sales that we need in that marketplace. So long story short, we think we're in a good position for that. On your Hill's comment, our focus is in the channels where we compete. And we believe we're a differentiated unique product that drives the premium nutrition side. Science clearly is the segment that continues to grow, particularly amongst Pet specialty.

因此，我們認為整體投資證明可以增加我們在該市場所需的消費和銷售。長話短說，我們認為我們處於有利位置。根據您希爾的評論，我們的重點是我們競爭的管道。我們相信我們是一款差異化的獨特產品，可以推動優質營養的發展。科學顯然是一個持續成長的領域，尤其是在寵物專業領域。

We have no plans to expand distribution in the food drug mass. We believe that would deteriorate the brand and we have very unique distribution policies that require us to be in the channels that we're in. And we continue, as I've mentioned earlier, to feel we have significant upside in those channels and the brand penetration that I mentioned earlier continues to grow.

我們沒有計劃擴大食品藥品的分銷範圍。我們認為這會損害品牌，我們有非常獨特的分銷政策，要求我們進入我們所在的管道。正如我之前提到的，我們繼續認為我們在這些管道和我之前提到的品牌滲透率持續增長。

So in a good place, no intentions on expanding distribution. That being said, as you know, the bulk of our business is done in the U.S. We will be very selective about market expansion on the Hill's business, making sure we get the business model right, making sure the vet becomes a core part of that expansion strategy because that would drive long-term sustainable profitability for the business.

所以在一個好的地方，無意擴大分銷。話雖這麼說，如您所知，我們的大部分業務是在美國完成的。我們將非常有選擇性地擴展 Hill 的業務，確保我們的商業模式正確，確保獸醫成為其中的核心部分擴張策略，因為這將推動企業長期可持續的獲利能力。

And so we'll continue to look for opportunities as we increase the health of that business and the expansion needed in markets around the world.

因此，我們將繼續尋找機會，以促進業務的健康發展和全球市場所需的擴張。

The next question comes from Robert Ottenstein with Evercore ISI.

下一個問題來自 Evercore ISI 的 Robert Ottenstein。

Noel, I was wondering if you can talk about India for a little bit. A lot of the companies that we talk to are very excited about the market and see it increasingly vibrant so perhaps maybe review your position there, market share trends, if you're seeing more opportunities and what your plans are?

諾埃爾，我想知道你是否可以談談印度。我們交談過的許多公司都對這個市場感到非常興奮，並看到它越來越充滿活力，因此也許可以回顧一下您在那裡的地位、市場份額趨勢，如果您看到更多機會，您的計劃是什麼？

And then just a kind of a housecleaning item for Stan. It looked like there was a $0.07 impact on the other income item on other income, but there were some offsets there and some asset sales and a value-added tax refund. If you could kind of just let us better understand exactly what's going on there.

然後只是斯坦的一種家居清潔用品。看起來其他收入項目對其他收入有 0.07 美元的影響，但那裡有一些抵消，以及一些資產出售和增值稅退稅。如果您能讓我們更了解那裡到底發生了什麼事。

Yes. Rob. So India, you saw the results this week, very strong results across the board, 9% organic, continued strong pricing and sequentially better volume in that market. I would likewise say we remain very excited and bullish on the market in India. We'll see the continued return to the rural segment, the vitality of the rural segment, which will bode well for volume as we move.

是的。搶。那麼印度，你看到了本週的結果，全面非常強勁的結果，9% 的有機率，持續強勁的定價以及該市場的連續更好的銷售。我同樣想說，我們對印度市場仍然非常興奮和樂觀。我們將看到農村部分的持續回歸，農村部分的活力，這將是我們搬遷過程中銷售的好兆頭。

As we look forward. The other aspect, which I won't get into a lot of specific details, we have some really strong innovation plan for India, particularly around our core businesses. and we're excited to see that obviously be delivered in the market and executed. The team is doing an exceptional job finding added distribution points to make sure that we continue to capitalize on investment strategy. So bullish on India, good results and sequentially right where we'd like to see their business today and setting us up for ultimately another strong year in 2024.

正如我們所期待的。另一方面，我不會透露太多具體細節，我們為印度製定了一些非常強大的創新計劃，特別是圍繞我們的核心業務。我們很高興看到它顯然已在市場上交付並執行。團隊在尋找更多分銷點方面做得非常出色，以確保我們繼續利用投資策略。非常看好印度，取得良好的業績，並且接下來我們希望看到他們今天的業務，並為我們在 2024 年最終又一個強勁的一年做好準備。

Rob, let me pick up on your second questionnaire and other income, other expense. As we talked earlier, that is made up of a number of items, both from this year and last year. And Argentina devaluation is certainly an impact, but not the majority of it. We also have some start-up costs in there, some onetime items from this year and last year.

羅布，讓我來了解您的第二份問卷以及其他收入和其他費用。正如我們之前所說，它由今年和去年的許多項目組成。阿根廷貨幣貶值肯定是一個影響，但不是主要影響。我們還有一些啟動成本，一些今年和去年的一次性專案。

What I would say is that's not a new run rate. That's not going to continue into next at that level. And you should think about these as kind of onetime events in nature. So these change as you go through the year.

我想說的是，這不是新的運行率。這種情況不會持續到該等級的下一個等級。你應該將這些視為自然界中的一次性事件。因此，隨著一年的過去，這些都會改變。

The next question comes from Edward Lewis with Redburn Atlantic.

下一個問題來自 Redburn Atlantic 的愛德華劉易斯 (Edward Lewis)。

Yes. Just wanted to talk on Europe. Another quarter of strong pricing this quarter. And looking back, I think it's 9.5% to 2023 or 4.5% in 2022. So just be really interested to hear how you're thinking about pricing over here because consistently, I guess, in the past, pricing hasn't been a big part of the story in Europe. Is this kind of a new kind of attitude we should expect to continue doing sort of more pricing in general coming out of Europe?

是的。只是想談談歐洲。本季又一個季度定價強勁。回顧過去，我認為到 2023 年會是 9.5%，到 2022 年會是 4.5%。因此，請真正有興趣聽聽您對這裡定價的看法，因為我想，在過去，定價一直不是一個大問題。歐洲故事的一部分。我們應該期待這種新的態度繼續從歐洲普遍進行更多定價嗎？

Yes. Thanks, Ed. Good question. We think we've learned a tremendous amount on pricing in Europe and really work closely with our retail partners to find ways to drive value and ultimately their categories. Clearly, a significant inflation over the last 6 or 7 quarters, which certainly helped to take more pricing in the marketplace. But I think our teams have exited 23 with more confidence.

是的。謝謝，艾德。好問題。我們認為，我們在歐洲的定價方面學到了很多東西，並與我們的零售合作夥伴密切合作，尋找推動價值並最終推動其品類的方法。顯然，過去六、七個季度的顯著通膨無疑有助於提高市場定價。但我認為我們的球隊已經更有信心退出 23 強了。

Now there's no question, as inflation declines in 2024, we'll get a much more balanced view of pricing and volume moving back into the P&L but I think some good stories that have allowed us to really accelerate our innovation and drive real value in the categories by relaunching our brands. You heard Jean-Luc talked about that at Deutsche Bank Conference, and I think that continues to be a consistent theme.

毫無疑問，隨著 2024 年通膨下降，我們將對定價和交易量重新納入損益表有一個更加平衡的看法，但我認為一些好的故事使我們能夠真正加速創新並推動實際價值通過重新推出我們的品牌來擴大類別。你在德意志銀行會議上聽到讓-呂克談到了這一點，我認為這仍然是一個一致的主題。

So a lot of learning there, not saying it's going to be a challenge as we move forward to get more pricing in Europe, but we believe we've got the tools and the vehicle is to continue to find ways to accelerate category growth and therefore, our margin growth in the business

因此，我們在那裡學到了很多東西，並不是說隨著我們在歐洲獲得更多定價，這將是一個挑戰，但我們相信我們已經擁有了工具和工具，可以繼續尋找加速品類增長的方法，因此，我們業務的利潤成長

This concludes the Q&A portion of our call. I would now like to return the call to Noel Wallace, Colgate's Chairman, President and CEO, for any closing remarks.

我們電話會議的問答部分到此結束。現在我想回電給高露潔董事長、總裁兼執行長諾埃爾華萊士，請其作結束語。

Well, thanks, everyone, for joining the call this morning. We hope you agree that the strategies and plans we have in place to deliver consistent compounded profitable growth to drive value for all of our stakeholders is there. And let me particularly thank all the Colgate employees around the world for their incredible hard work and dedication to deliver these strong results in 2023 and thank them in advance for the results they're going to continue to deliver in 2024. Thanks, everyone. We'll see you down in Florida.

好的，謝謝大家今天早上加入電話會議。我們希望您同意我們已經制定了策略和計劃，以實現持續的複合盈利增長，從而為所有利益相關者創造價值。讓我特別感謝世界各地的所有高露潔員工，他們付出了令人難以置信的辛勤工作和奉獻精神，才在2023 年取得了這些強勁的成果，並提前感謝他們將在2024 年繼續取得的成果。謝謝大家。我們佛羅裡達見。

The conference has now concluded. Thank you for attending today's call. You may now disconnect.

會議現已結束。感謝您參加今天的電話會議。您現在可以斷開連線。