Civitas Resources Inc (CIVI) 2024 Q3 法說會逐字稿

Good day, and thank you for standing by. Welcome to Civitas Resources third-quarter 2024 earnings conference call and webcast. (Operator Instructions) Thank you. Please be advised that today's conference is being recorded. And I would now like to hand the call over to Brad Whitmarsh, Head of Investor Relations. Brad, please go ahead.

美好的一天，感謝您的支持。歡迎參加 Civitas Resources 2024 年第三季財報電話會議和網路廣播。（操作員說明）謝謝。請注意，今天的會議正在錄製中。我現在想將電話轉給投資人關係主管布拉德‧惠特馬什 (Brad Whitmarsh)。布拉德，請繼續。

Thanks, Christa. Good morning, everyone, and thank you for joining us. Yesterday, we issued our third quarter earnings release, our 10-Q, and we provided some supplemental materials for your review. These items are all available on our website. I'm joined this morning by our CEO, Chris Doyle; our CFO, Marianella Foschi; and our COO, Hodge Walker.

謝謝，克里斯塔。大家早安，感謝您加入我們。昨天，我們發布了第三季財報報告，即 10-Q，並提供了一些補充資料供您審查。這些項目都可以在我們的網站上找到。今天早上我們的執行長 Chris Doyle 也加入了我的行列。我們的財務長，Marianella Foschi；以及我們的首席營運長 Hodge Walker。

After our remarks, we will conduct a question-and-answer session. As always, please limit your time to one question and one follow-up so we can work through the list efficiently.

發言結束後，我們將進行問答環節。像往常一樣，請將您的時間限制在一個問題和一個後續行動上，以便我們能夠有效地處理該清單。

We will make certain forward-looking statements today, and those are subject to risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results to differ materially from those projections. Please make sure and read our full disclosures regarding these statements in our most recent SEC filings. In addition, we may also refer to certain non-GAAP financial metrics. Reconciliations to the appropriate GAAP measure are also in yesterday's SEC filings and our release. With that, I'll turn the call over to Chris.

我們今天將做出某些前瞻性陳述，這些陳述受到風險和不確定性的影響，可能導致實際結果與這些預測有重大差異。請確保並閱讀我們在最近向 SEC 提交的文件中關於這些聲明的完整披露。此外，我們也可能參考某些非公認會計準則財務指標。昨天向 SEC 提交的文件和我們的新聞稿中也包含了與適當 GAAP 衡量標準的調整。這樣，我會將電話轉給克里斯。

Thanks, Brad. Good morning, everybody, and welcome to our third quarter call. This morning, there are three key things I want to focus on. First, I'll quickly summarize third quarter results and expectations for the fourth quarter. Second, I'll share some highlights from the DJ and Permian, where we continue to enhance returns through solid operational execution and sustainable capital efficiencies.

謝謝，布拉德。大家早上好，歡迎來到我們的第三季電話會議。今天早上，我想專注在三件關鍵的事情上。首先，我將快速總結第三季的業績和對第四季的預期。其次，我將分享 DJ 和二疊紀的一些亮點，我們將繼續透過紮實的營運執行和可持續的資本效率來提高回報。

And lastly, I'll comment briefly on 2025, as it's important that you understand that our priorities have not changed. As with our usual practice, we'll provide our final 2025 plan in February.

最後，我將簡要評論 2025 年，因為重要的是您要了解我們的優先事項沒有改變。按照我們的慣例，我們將在 2 月提供最終的 2025 年計畫。

Over the past few months, we've continued to see significant volatility in commodity prices in the underlying macro environment. The actions we've taken as a company over the past couple of years strengthened Civitas and positioned us to deliver long-term value to our shareholders at any point in the cycle.

過去幾個月，我們繼續看到在基本宏觀環境下大宗商品價格大幅波動。作為一家公司，我們在過去幾年中採取的行動增強了 Civitas 的實力，並使我們能夠在周期的任何時刻為股東提供長期價值。

Our Permian acquisitions added depth and quality to our inventory, doubling the size of the company. With scale positions now in the DJ and the Permian, we have a high-quality, diversified portfolio of opportunities in the lowest breakeven basins in the U.S.

我們對二疊紀盆地的收購增加了我們庫存的深度和質量，使公司規模擴大了一倍。憑藉目前在 DJ 和二疊紀盆地的規模地位，我們在美國損益平衡點最低的盆地擁有高品質、多元化的投資機會。

And our team continues to improve and add to that position, delivering sustainable capital efficiency gains, proving up new zones for development and capturing additional inventory that expands our runway of high-return opportunities, all while returning significant amounts of capital to our shareholders.

我們的團隊不斷改進和鞏固這一地位，提供可持續的資本效率收益，證明新的開發區域，並獲取額外的庫存，擴大我們的高回報機會跑道，同時向我們的股東返還大量資本。

Let me start with our third quarter results and fourth quarter expectations. For the third quarter, we delivered solid financial results with adjusted EBITDA of $910 million, led by strong sales volumes, strong oil differentials and strong cost control. Our Board's recent action to further prioritize the balance sheet and share buybacks is very timely. During the quarter, we returned $227 million to our shareholders. Based on the trailing 12-month calculation, the third quarter variable return of capital totaled $104 million.

讓我從我們的第三季業績和第四季預期開始。第三季度，我們實現了穩健的財務業績，調整後的 EBITDA 為 9.1 億美元，這得益於強勁的銷售、強勁的油價差異和強有力的成本控制。我們董事會最近採取的進一步優先考慮資產負債表和股票回購的行動非常及時。本季度，我們向股東返還 2.27 億美元。根據過去 12 個月的計算，第三季可變資本回報率為 1.04 億美元。

So rather than paying a variable dividend, we elected to shift 100% of our third quarter variable return to buybacks, completing these share repurchases in October. We see tremendous value in our equity, and we'll continue to prioritize share repurchases. The remaining 50% of our free cash flow went to reduce debt.

因此，我們沒有支付可變股息，而是選擇將第三季可變回報的 100% 用於回購，並於 10 月完成了這些股票回購。我們看到了股權的巨大價值，我們將繼續優先考慮股票回購。我們剩餘 50% 的自由現金流用於減少債務。

On an equivalent basis, third quarter volumes were slightly above expectation. Revenues benefited from strong oil realizations and solid natural gas hedging gains. Oil volumes were a little light in the quarter due to unexpected downtime at third-party facilities in the DJ and water takeaway constraints in the Permian, but these temporary issues have now been resolved. Capital investments in the third quarter reflect facility spend pulled forward from the fourth quarter, as well as accelerated drilling and completion activity.

以同等標準計算，第三季銷量略高於預期。收入受益於強勁的石油變現和穩定的天然氣對沖收益。由於 DJ 第三方設施意外停機以及二疊紀取水限制，本季石油產量略有減少，但這些臨時問題現已解決。第三季的資本投資反映了較第四季提前的設施支出，以及鑽井和完井活動的加速。

In yesterday's materials, we provide a detailed fourth quarter guidance, where you can see the lower fourth quarter capital guide. We remain on track with all full year deliverables, including volumes, CapEx, operating costs, and most importantly, free cash flow. Our production factoring in our divestments from earlier this year were above the midpoint of our original oil guidance for the year.

在昨天的材料中，我們提供了詳細的第四季度指導，您可以在其中看到較低的第四季度資本指導。我們全年的所有交付成果均保持在正軌上，包括銷售、資本支出、營運成本，以及最重要的自由現金流。今年早些時候我們剝離的產量因素高於我們今年最初石油指導的中點。

Free cash flow for the quarter should increase significantly as oil volumes are expected 3% higher quarter-over-quarter, with DJ Basin growth more than offsetting expected declines in the Permian as we reduce activity into year-end. We've had a strong start to the final quarter of the year, with October oil production averaging 165,000 barrels per day.

本季的自由現金流應會顯著增加，因為石油產量預計將環比增加 3%，隨著我們到年底減少活動，DJ 盆地的成長將足以抵消二疊紀盆地的預期下降。今年最後一個季度我們取得了良好的開局，10 月份石油產量平均為每天 165,000 桶。

Let me now share a few more details from each business unit. In the Permian, our team has done an outstanding job establishing an operating track record focused on driving capital efficiencies and enhancing the value of our assets.

現在讓我分享每個業務部門的更多細節。在二疊紀，我們的團隊表現出色，建立了專注於提高資本效率和提高資產價值的營運記錄。

On the productivity front, we've begun to deliver the expected improvement in well performance as a result of our development philosophy, which focuses on incremental well returns rather than an overall pad level return. Our Permian well costs continue to trend lower, driven by reduced cycle times, drilling and completion design improvements and lower oilfield service costs. We're certainly not done.

在生產力方面，由於我們的開發理念，我們已經開始實現油井性能的預期改善，該理念側重於增量油井回報，而不是總體水平回報。由於週期時間縮短、鑽井和完井設計改進以及油田服務成本降低，我們的二疊紀井成本持續呈下降趨勢。我們當然還沒完成。

Here in the fourth quarter, we've initiated simul-fracs across our Permian program with early results in the Midland Basin highlighting a more than 30% uplift in daily fluid throughput.

在第四季度，我們在二疊紀計畫中啟動了模擬壓裂，並在米德蘭盆地取得了早期結果，突顯出每日流體吞吐量增加了 30% 以上。

Strong results from recent Wolfcamp D wells in the Southern Midland are unlocking new resource for development as higher productivity is more than offsetting modestly higher well costs. Returns in the D are competitive with other core zones such the Wolfcamp A and B, and we've identified approximately 120 Wolfcamp D locations in the inventory with mid-$40 oil breakevens.

最近南米德蘭州 Wolfcamp D 井的強勁成果正在釋放新的開發資源，因為更高的生產力足以抵消適度上漲的井成本。D 區的回報與 Wolfcamp A 和 B 等其他核心區相比具有競爭力，我們在庫存中確定了大約 120 個 Wolfcamp D 地點，其石油盈虧平衡點在 40 美元左右。

In addition, our ground game in the Permian is adding high-quality inventory by capturing more than 75 gross locations year-to-date. We've also executed a number of beneficial acreage trades and swaps to materially extend lateral lengths and increase working interest in near-term core developments. All of these ground game adds immediately compete for capital, and we're working even more opportunities to add to the portfolio.

此外，我們在二疊紀盆地的地面遊戲今年迄今已佔領超過 75 個總地點，從而增加了高品質的庫存。我們也進行了許多有利的面積交易和互換，以實質延長橫向長度並增加近期核心開發的工作興趣。所有這些地面遊戲都會立即爭取資本，我們正在尋找更多機會來增加投資組合。

In the DJ Basin, our legacy asset continues to deliver outstanding results, and we've highlighted strong performance across the entirety of our acreage position in our materials. The prolific Watkins area in the southern part of our acreage comprises approximately 2/3 of our well count in the DJ this year.

在 DJ 盆地，我們的傳統資產繼續取得出色的業績，我們強調了我們整個材料面積位置的強勁表現。我們南部地區多產的沃特金斯 (Watkins) 地區約佔今年 DJ 油井數量的 2/3。

In this area, we recently commenced production on 134-mile laterals, and the results are ahead of expectations. No per foot degradation observed as compared to our 3-milers. Of note, the unrestricted deliverability of the Blue 4AH well at a Colorado record with 90-day cumulative production of 165,000 barrels of oil.

在該地區，我們最近開始了 134 英里支線的生產，結果超出了預期。與我們的 3 英里跑者相比，沒有觀察到每英尺退化。值得注意的是，Blue 4AH 油井的無限制產能創下了科羅拉多州的記錄，90 天累積產量為 165,000 桶石油。

These 4-milers are another example of our team's ability to execute and drive returns through complex well geometries and extended reach laterals. This demonstrated capability is helping drive additional ground game opportunities to add high-quality inventory to our position.

這些 4 英里井是我們團隊透過複雜的井幾何結構和大位移支管執行和驅動回報能力的另一個例子。這種展示的能力有助於推動更多的地面比賽機會，為我們的陣地增加高品質的庫存。

As a reminder, our Watkins oil is lower API crude than our typical DJ barrel, a significant contributor to our stronger realizations of late. Add to this the positive regulatory developments over the last couple of quarters, including the ballot measure stand down and the Lowry CAP approval on Watkins, and we're in a great position to continue to deliver in the DJ.

提醒一下，我們的沃特金斯石油的 API 原油含量低於我們典型的 DJ 桶，這是我們最近實現更強勁業績的重要貢獻者。再加上過去幾季積極的監管進展，包括投票措施的取消和對沃特金斯的 Lowry CAP 批准，我們處於有利地位，可以繼續交付 DJ 服務。

Before we take your questions, let me briefly talk about 2025. As we've said in the past, our priorities have not changed and will be guided by our strategic pillars: generate significant free cash flow, enhance the balance sheet, return capital to shareholders and lead in ESG. Production will be an outcome of the plan, not the driver, as we seek to balance each of these strategic imperatives.

在回答大家的問題之前，讓我先簡單談談 2025 年。正如我們過去所說，我們的優先事項沒有改變，並將以我們的策略支柱為指導：產生大量自由現金流、改善資產負債表、向股東返還資本以及在 ESG 方面處於領先地位。生產將是計劃的結果，而不是驅動力，因為我們尋求平衡這些戰略要務。

In 2025, we'd like to level load our capital investments through the year a bit better. Recall that we entered 2024 with very high levels of activity inherited from the three Permian acquisitions, and we've decreased activity every quarter this year, establishing a more steady-state operation, and level loading activity will ultimately support sustainable capital efficiencies moving forward.

到 2025 年，我們希望全年的資本投資負載能更好。回想一下，我們進入2024 年時，繼承了三項二疊紀收購的活動水平非常高，今年每個季度我們都減少了活動，建立了更加穩定的運營狀態，水平負載活動最終將支持未來可持續的資本效率。

Given the current volatility in the forward oil strip, we will remain flexible as we plan for 2025 and we'll respond quickly to commodity price changes, again, focused on protecting free cash flow levels.

鑑於目前遠期油田的波動性，我們在 2025 年計畫中將保持靈活性，我們將再次對大宗商品價格變化做出快速反應，重點是保護自由現金流水準。

Regardless of where things shake out, we are focused on returns. That's returns on our investments and returns of capital to our balance sheet and to our shareholders. On closing, 2024 has been an important year for Civitas. A year ago, we had a demonstrated track record in the DJ, and we are looking to build on that track record as we stood up a new team in the Permian.

無論事情發生什麼變化，我們都專注於回報。這是我們的投資回報以及資產負債表和股東的資本回報。最後，2024 年對 Civitas 來說是重要的一年。一年前，我們在 DJ 領域擁有出色的業績記錄，我們希望在這項業績記錄的基礎上再接再厲，在二疊紀組建一支新團隊。

Our job is not done, as Civitas is well positioned as we enter 2025. We have a scaled portfolio of high-quality, low breakeven assets and teams in the Rockies and the Permian that are focused on driving capital efficiency to enhance returns and deliver for our shareholders through the cycle. Thank you again for your interest in Civitas. Operator, we're now ready to take questions.

我們的工作尚未完成，隨著我們進入 2025 年，Civitas 已處於有利位置。我們在落磯和二疊紀地區擁有規模化的高品質、低損益平衡資產和團隊投資組合，專注於提高資本效率，以提高回報並在整個週期中為我們的股東帶來回報。再次感謝您對 Civitas 的關注。接線員，我們現在準備好回答問題。

(Operator Instructions) Your first question comes from the line of Neal Dingmann with Truist Securities.

（操作員說明）您的第一個問題來自 Truist Securities 的 Neal Dingmann。

Nice quarter. My first question is around your future activity. Specifically, while I believe you talked to investors out right now. I believe most of everybody is in agreement about little need to grow overall production.

不錯的季度。我的第一個問題是關於你未來的活動。具體來說，雖然我相信您現在已經與投資者進行了交談。我相信大多數人都同意幾乎不需要增加整體產量。

I'm just wondering, Chris, you all still believe the best way going forward to create value will continue to be with a Permian versus DJ activity of maybe -- or rig count, I should say, 3:1, given your potential continued advancements in Permian assets on one hand, but also understanding maybe the limited value that investors seem to be giving you for your DJ?

我只是想知道，克里斯，你們仍然相信，創造價值的最佳方式將繼續是二疊紀與 DJ 活動，或者鑽機數量，我應該說，3:1，因為你們的潛力仍在繼續一方面是二疊紀資產的進步，但同時也了解投資者似乎為您的DJ 提供的價值有限？

I'm just curious about how you might shape this plan going forward?

我只是好奇你未來會如何制定這個計劃？

Yes. Thanks, Neal. Good question. As we step back and we think about how we've established this company and how we'll run this company, the basic model, as you know, is we're going to keep production broadly flat. We're going to peel out as much capital as we can, get costs as low as we can and really focus in on maximizing free cash flow.

是的。謝謝，尼爾。好問題。當我們退一步思考我們如何建立這家公司以及我們將如何經營這家公司時，如你所知，基本模式是我們將保持生產基本上持平。我們將盡可能剝離資本，盡可能降低成本，並真正專注於最大化自由現金流。

A couple tweaks, right, as we head into 2025. 2024 was a bit of an outlier with front-end loaded capital as we brought in the three acquisitions. We've tried to get that capital down throughout the year, really focusing again on free cash flow for the year. As we head into '25, as I said in my prepared remarks, we'll level load activity but really focus in on maintaining free cash flow.

當我們進入 2025 年時，需要進行一些調整。我們試圖全年減少資本，再次真正關註今年的自由現金流。當我們進入 25 年時，正如我在準備好的演講中所說，我們將平衡負荷活動，但真正專注於維持自由現金流。

You had a question about 3:1 Permian to DJ. We're going to let returns drive us. And I think the benefit of having these positions in both the DJ and Permian gives us quite a bit of flexibility. To your point, there are a couple of other considerations. I think the compromise in the DJ is really having us focused in on, let's get all the permits we can ahead over the next three or four years.

您有關於 3:1 Permian 到 DJ 的問題。我們將讓回報驅動我們。我認為在 DJ 和二疊紀都擁有這些職位的好處是為我們帶來了相當大的靈活性。就您的觀點而言，還有其他一些考慮因素。我認為 DJ 的妥協確實讓我們專注於，讓我們在未來三、四年內獲得所有可以獲得的許可。

And ensure that we have that flexibility to go between basins. We're ending the year right now with three rigs in the Permian, one in the DJ, but that's not a sustainable level of activity. We'll pick that up next year, again, level loaded as best we can and focus back in on free cash flow.

並確保我們在流域之間具有靈活性。今年即將結束時，我們在二疊紀擁有三台鑽機，其中一台在 DJ，但這不是可持續的活動水平。明年我們將再次選擇這一點，盡我們所能，並重新關注自由現金流。

We think, ultimately, that is the way for -- to deliver long-term sustainable success for -- and value for our shareholders. And I think when you add on the overall macro, we don't think it's appropriate for Civitas or others to really think about growing production into that macro until you have a better idea of what '25 looks like and beyond.

我們認為，最終，這就是為我們的股東帶來長期可持續成功和價值的方式。我認為，當你添加整體宏觀時，我們認為 Civitas 或其他人不適合真正考慮將產量增加到該宏觀中，直到你更好地了解 25 年後的情況。

Yes, I completely agree with that. And then my second, Chris, just for you or Nella on the shareholder return. Specifically, are there drivers you believe would make sense to cause you all to change your current 50% variable return component, such as if leverage gets notably below 1x or even your stock price even is further discounted even from where it is today or you see a highly accretive asset available, that's sort of one thing on what would cause you to change that component? And then secondly, what do you all view as sort of an adequate dividend yield?

是的，我完全同意這一點。然後是我的第二個，克里斯，只是為了你或內拉的股東回報。具體來說，是否存在您認為有意義的驅動因素，導致您所有人改變當前的50% 可變回報部分，例如，如果槓桿率明顯低於1 倍，甚至您的股價甚至比今天的水平進一步打折，或者您看到一個高度增值的可用資產，這就是導致您更改該元件的原因之一？其次，你們認為什麼才是足夠的股息殖利率？

Yes, Neal, thanks for the question. I mean, look, I'd say that since our inception, I mean, you've followed us for a long time. Our current framework has always been focused on striking that right balance among our strategic pillars. I think the -- if you look at our formulation right now, that LTM framework allows us to do that very well, such that we're paying more than -- paying debt disproportionately quicker at higher prices and then we're buying countercyclically at low prices. We continue accelerating our balance sheet goals with the great work the team is doing in terms of taking cost out of the system.

是的，尼爾，謝謝你的提問。我的意思是，聽著，我想說，自從我們成立以來，我的意思是，您已經關注我們很長時間了。我們目前的框架始終致力於在策略支柱之間實現適當的平衡。我認為，如果你現在看看我們的表述，LTM 框架使我們能夠做得很好，這樣我們就可以以更高的價格更快地支付債務，然後我們以反週期的價格購買價格低廉。透過團隊在降低系統成本方面所做的出色工作，我們持續加速實現資產負債表目標。

You saw us complete some asset divestitures earlier this year, among a lot of other initiatives. And -- like I've said in prior quarters, I mean, in certain times, we'll obviously look to prioritize the balance sheet further. I mean, we have high-quality assets on a low-cost structure that yield a tremendous amount of free cash flow.

您看到我們今年早些時候完成了一些資產剝離以及許多其他舉措。而且 - 就像我在前幾個季度所說的那樣，我的意思是，在某些時候，我們顯然會進一步優先考慮資產負債表。我的意思是，我們擁有低成本結構的優質資產，可以產生大量的自由現金流。

And so I think at this point, we like what we see in terms of how both of those answers are getting advanced in terms of our strategic pillars. Also note that for a highly aligned management team, right, and in the way that we get compensated. So we'll always do what's right and in the best interest of shareholders.

因此，我認為在這一點上，我們喜歡我們所看到的這兩個答案如何在我們的策略支柱方面取得進展。另請注意，對於高度一致的管理團隊來說，這是正確的，而且我們獲得報酬的方式也是如此。因此，我們將始終做正確的事情並符合股東的最大利益。

And then on your second question, I mean, look, I'll say on the dividend yield, we're certainly -- our base dividend alone as we see it, is about twice our peers' at this point. And in terms of the total yield, we certainly want to be peer leading, but again, at the same time, making sure we're advancing our balance sheet goals at the pace that we want to.

然後，關於你的第二個問題，我的意思是，看，我會說，關於股息收益率，我們當然——我們認為，我們的基本股息目前大約是我們同業的兩倍。就總收益率而言，我們當然希望處於同業領先地位，但同時，也要確保我們以我們想要的速度推進我們的資產負債表目標。

Your next question comes from the line of Zach Parham with JPMorgan.

您的下一個問題來自摩根大通的 Zach Parham。

First, I just wanted to ask a little bit more on the shareholder return program. Can you just give us some thoughts on buybacks versus variable dividends at this point? Is it fair to assume with the stock trading where it is, you continue to utilize 100% of the variable return for buybacks? And if so, would you expect the buyback pace to increase in 4Q, just given higher trailing 12-month free cash flow?

首先，我只是想多問一些關於股東回報計畫的問題。現在您能否給我們一些關於回購與可變股息的想法？假設在目前的股票交易中，您繼續利用 100% 的可變回報進行回購，這是否公平？如果是這樣，考慮到過去 12 個月的自由現金流較高，您是否預期第四季的回購步伐會加快？

Yes. Look, we'll be price disciplined with our stock. We always are, as we are with any asset acquisitions, how we think about it. But just to address your question very directly, we're pretty far from stock prices at which we do a variable dividend at this point. And then on your second question, yes, just from the nature of the LTM formulation of free cash flow going up this year, yes, we'll expect the variable return on capital to be higher, and that would be allocated disproportionately to buybacks at this point.

是的。聽著，我們將對我們的庫存實施價格管制。正如我們對任何資產收購一樣，我們始終是如何看待它的。但為了非常直接地回答你的問題，我們目前距離我們進行可變股息的股價還很遠。然後關於你的第二個問題，是的，僅從今年自由現金流上升的LTM 公式的性質來看，是的，我們預計資本的可變回報率會更高，並且這將不成比例地分配給回購這一點。

And then I just wanted to follow up. You mentioned a little bit more level-loaded program. Can you talk a little bit more about that? Would you still expect to hold volumes flat year-over-year with a more level-loaded program? And in a more level-loaded program, how would you expect CapEx year-over-year?

然後我只想跟進。你提到了一個更多關卡載入的程式。能多談談嗎？您是否仍希望透過更高等級的計劃來保持銷量同比持平？在負載水準較高的計劃中，您預計每年的資本支出如何？

Yes. I think as we head into 2024, and we had a guide of $195 million capital. We knew that that was not a sustainable level of capital. We were going to let that fall off through the year. The shape of 2024, very first half weighted.

是的。我認為，當我們進入 2024 年時，我們的資本指導值為 1.95 億美元。我們知道這不是可持續的資本水準。我們本來打算讓這種情況在這一年逐漸消失。2024 年的形狀，上半年加權。

We had TILs really concentrated in the middle of the year. That ultimately does mean production is going to start climbing at the end of the year and into the first quarter before we pull up with TIL sort of mid-quarter.

我們的 TIL 確實集中在年中。這最終確實意味著產量將在今年年底開始攀升，並進入第一季度，然後我們才能在季度中期達到 TIL 水平。

Again, I would like to have a more sustained, more level-loaded level of activity in each of the basins just to drive additional capital efficiency. I think as we step back and think, all right, at $195 million going into the year wasn't a sustainable maintenance level of capital. What this team has done throughout the year, peeling out capital efficiency, drilling, being much more efficient with our rigs and completions.

再次強調，我希望每個流域都有更持續、更負載水準的活動，以提高資本效率。我認為，當我們退一步思考時，好吧，今年 1.95 億美元的資本水準並不是可持續的維持水準。團隊全年所做的工作包括提高資本效率、鑽井、提高鑽機和完井效率。

You're starting to see the tweaks on the development come to fruition and -- and I think the program, as we look at it in '25 is more efficient than we would have thought a year ago, which is a real positive. But it's likely we're much closer to that 195 as a maintenance level than we were certainly 12 months ago.

你開始看到對開發的調整取得了成果，我認為，正如我們在 25 年所看到的那樣，該計劃比我們一年前想像的更有效率，這是一個真正的積極因素。但作為維持水平，我們可能比 12 個月前更接近 195。

Your next question comes from the line of Scott Hanold with RBC Capital Markets.

您的下一個問題來自加拿大皇家銀行資本市場部的 Scott Hanold。

Yes. I guess for my first question, just looking at the ways you've optimize your activity and specifically in the Midland Basin. I mean you're nearing your D&C target. So two questions. One, how much further below that can you potentially push it? And can you talk about how like the progress in the Midland compares to what you've seen in the Delaware so far?

是的。我想對於我的第一個問題，只需看看您優化活動的方式，特別是在米德蘭盆地。我的意思是你已經接近你的 D&C 目標了。那麼兩個問題。第一，您可以將其進一步推低多少？您能否談談米德蘭的進展與您迄今為止在特拉華州看到的情況相比如何？

Sure. We've said in the past -- and thank you for the question, Scott. We said in the past that most of our swings at the plate have been really focused on the Midland. Not surprising. We're about 2/3 Midland, 1/3 Delaware.

當然。我們過去說過－謝謝你提出這個問題，史考特。我們過去說過，我們在本壘板的大部分波動實際上都集中在米德蘭。並不奇怪。我們大約有 2/3 米德蘭，1/3 特拉華。

Part of that capital allocation this year, I think we were a 75-25 split between Midland and Delaware is really getting the Delaware position, optimize, extending laterals and setting us up in 2025 and future years to allocate more capital in that direction with extended laterals. But most of the swings at the plate we've had this year have been on the Midland side, and therefore, we've been highlighting that. I would say the team has made significant progress coming into the year at [850] a foot consistent with previous operators, getting to [740].

今年資本配置的一部分，我認為米德蘭和特拉華州之間的比例為75-25，實際上是為了獲得特拉華州的地位，優化，擴展支線，並讓我們在2025 年和未來幾年在這個方向上分配更多資本，並延長側向。但今年我們的盤面波動大部分都是在米德蘭這邊，因此，我們一直在強調這一點。我想說，今年團隊在每英尺 [850] 方面取得了重大進展，與之前的運營商保持一致，達到[740]。

Some of that is a little bit on the service side, but the majority -- vast majority of that is just capital efficiency, drilling, completing wells much faster, getting wells better on the back end as well. And so -- we're very close to your point to the target that we set out there earlier this year. I think what gets me excited is as we look towards 2025, it started this quarter, implementing simul frac throughout the Permian program. We see that as -- we've seen significant throughput increases. We see that as $150,000 a well type savings, and that boom automatically right there at your target cost.

其中一些是在服務方面，但大多數——絕大多數只是資本效率、鑽井、更快地完井、在後端也讓油井變得更好。因此，我們非常接近您的觀點，即我們今年早些時候設定的目標。我認為讓我興奮的是，當我們展望 2025 年時，它從本季度開始，在整個二疊紀計劃中實施同步壓裂。我們看到吞吐量顯著增加。我們認為，一口井型可節省 150,000 美元，而這種增長會自動按照您的目標成本實現。

So we will have -- we will continue to drive costs out of the system. It will not just be from service costs alone. It will be from continuous improvement. And love to see what the team has done. I think it's interesting as we look at that cost structure applied to a zone that we were really interested to see how it do. We've highlighted the Wolfcamp D. All of a sudden, Wolfcamp D is 5%, 10% higher on a per foot basis.

因此，我們將繼續降低系統成本。這不僅來自於服務成本。這將來自持續改進。並且喜歡看到團隊所做的事情。我認為這很有趣，因為我們看到應用於一個區域的成本結構，我們真的很想看看它是如何運作的。我們重點介紹了 Wolfcamp D。

So it's a little bit more expensive. But with what we've seen in terms of the subsurface results, all of a sudden, that Wolfcamp D went from a potential -- something interesting to look at to something that's going to compete for capital. And so it's teams that have and can establish a very strong cost structure and operating track record that are able to pull in some of those emerging zones. So really excited what the team's been up to and excited to see how we continue to drive costs out of the system.

所以價格稍微貴一點。但從我們所看到的地下結果來看，Wolfcamp D 突然從一個有潛力的東西——值得關注的東西，變成了一個可以爭奪資本的東西。因此，擁有並且能夠建立非常強大的成本結構和營運記錄的團隊能夠吸引一些新興區域。我們對團隊所做的事情感到非常興奮，也很高興看到我們如何繼續降低系統成本。

I appreciate the content. And my follow-up question is back on the 2025 outlook. You all have shown probably one of the more leading strategies of being disciplined with capital and production. I guess production, as you said, the outcome. But let's say -- and I know there's a lot of volatility out there.

我很欣賞這個內容。我的後續問題又回到了 2025 年展望。你們都已經展示了可能是對資本和生產進行紀律約束的更領先的策略之一。我猜生產，正如你所說，結果。但是，我知道市場存在著很大的波動性。

But look, if oil ends up being in a, I don't know, call it, a mid-60 environment or even low 60 -- or maybe I'll say it this way, at what point would you feel comfortable letting oil production fall year-over-year? Is there some sort of price where decision where you're just going to let it state a little bit considering the macro?

但看，如果石油最終處於，我不知道，所謂的，60 中度甚至 60 低的環境中——或者也許我會這樣說，在什麼時候你會覺得讓石油舒服產量同比下降？是否有某種價格決定讓您考慮到宏觀因素而稍微說明一下？

Yes, I think -- I appreciate your comments, Scott. And I think that's something our management team really prides ourselves in is -- and it gets to Marianella's comment about being really aligned with shareholders -- is ultimately what we're going to focus in on is free cash flow.

是的，我想——我很欣賞你的評論，斯科特。我認為這是我們的管理團隊真正引以為傲的一點——這也反映了瑪麗內拉關於與股東真正保持一致的評論——最終我們要關注的是自由現金流。

And so if you get oil in the low 60s -- low 60s, mid-60s, we take a look at, hey, let's focus in on free cash flow, let production moderate a bit. That's what we'll do. We did that back in 2023, as you might recall, not necessarily because of the commodity price, but there was a big disconnect between the service markets that were underpinned by $100 oil and you had the commodity floating down 25%, 30%.

因此，如果你在 60 年代低位 - 60 年代低位，60 年代中期獲得石油，我們會看看，嘿，讓我們專注於自由現金流，讓生產稍微放緩。這就是我們要做的。你可能還記得，我們​​在 2023 年就這麼做了，不一定是因為大宗商品價格，而是以 100 美元石油為基礎的服務市場與大宗商品價格下跌 25%、30% 之間存在很大脫節。

So we moderated production just a little in that scenario. So we're going to be very flexible. Now I would say -- let's say, it goes the other way. Because to your point, there's a lot of volatility, whether it's geopolitical or demand side, supply side. That if it goes the other way, I don't think you're going to see this company lean in and start growing this platform. You'd see us start to deliver much faster and return capital to our shareholders.

因此，在這種情況下，我們稍微調整了生產。所以我們將非常靈活。現在我想說——比方說，情況恰恰相反。因為就你的觀點而言，無論是地緣政治或需求方、供應方，都存在著很大的波動性。如果情況相反，我認為你不會看到這家公司投入並開始發展這個平台。您會看到我們開始更快地交付並向股東返還資本。

Your next question comes from the line of Gabriel Daoud with TD Cowen.

您的下一個問題來自 Gabriel Daoud 和 TD Cowen 的對話。

This is [Frank Digivon] on for Dave. Just given the production profile in '24, how should we kind of think about one-half '25 declines and kind of the activity required next year to keep '24 volumes flat?

這是戴夫的[Frank Digivon]。考慮到 24 年的產量概況，我們應該如何考慮 25 年一半的下降以及明年保持 24 年銷量持平所需的活動？

Yes. So if you look at us as a company, our oil declines, call it, high 30s on an annual basis. The way that we've shaped capital, again, focused on free cash flow and getting to a more sustainable level loaded program. You're looking at TILs, a low quarter in the fourth quarter. And then you'll see us decline into that first quarter.

是的。因此，如果你將我們視為一家公司，我們的石油價格每年都會下降 30 多美元。我們塑造資本的方式再次注重自由現金流和實現更永續的負載計畫。您看到的是 TIL，這是第四季度的低季度。然後你會看到我們在第一季的業績下滑。

We'll pick back up mid-quarter with the TILs. And activity will pick up as well. And so our level load for '25 is going to be a little bit more activity than what we see in the fourth quarter. But you are going to see us drop down a little bit before coming out of that into the back half of the first quarter and second quarter.

我們將在季度中期恢復 TIL。活動也會增加。因此，我們 25 年的水平負載將比我們在第四季度看到的要多一些。但你會看到我們在第一節和第二節後半段走出困境之前會有所下降。

Okay. Great. And then how are you thinking about just M&A moving forward?

好的。偉大的。那麼您如何看待未來的併購？

Yes. I think -- I would say as we made the moves when we did, where we did, it was extremely important that we came in with scale. We have that scale now. It's important that we really focus on asset quality and to augment and enhance what we had. We're still believers in adding inventory, adding duration.

是的。我認為——我想說，當我們採取行動時，我們在哪裡採取行動時，我們的規模化是極其重要的。我們現在有這樣的規模。重要的是，我們真正專注於資產品質並擴大和增強我們擁有的資產。我們仍然相信增加庫存、延長期限。

We believe scale is really important. I think I said on the last call, and it's even more true today, I think of all the companies out there where we believe the equity value just does not match the underlying asset quality and the operating team. Our hurdle to do something with our equity is very, very high.

我們相信規模非常重要。我想我在上次電話會議上說過，今天更是如此，我想到了所有我們認為股權價值與基礎資產品質和營運團隊不匹配的公司。我們用我們的股權來做某事的障礙非常非常高。

And so while we'll look at transactions -- and to an earlier question, if there's something that really gets our attention, we'll take a look at it for sure. But what you've seen this team do is with where the asset markets are related to where our equity is currently trading, what we're focused on is little bolt-on ground games to replace drilled inventory and wait for that to moderate a little bit.

因此，當我們專注於交易時——對於先前的問題，如果有什麼東西真正引起了我們的注意，我們肯定會關注它。But what you've seen this team do is with where the asset markets are related to where our equity is currently trading, what we're focused on is little bolt-on ground games to replace drilled inventory and wait for that to moderate a little位元.

And that allows us to generate more free cash and take that to the balance sheet and take it to our shareholders. And so as long as where trading is so disconnected to what we see as an underlying value disconnected to the asset markets and disconnected to the equity markets, I think it's going to be really tough for us to lean in and get too excited on the M&A front.

這使我們能夠產生更多的自由現金，並將其計入資產負債表並帶給我們的股東。因此，只要交易與我們所認為的潛在價值脫節，與資產市場和股票市場脫節，我認為我們就很難對併購感到過於興奮。

Your next question comes from the line of Leo Mariani with ROTH.

你的下一個問題來自 Leo Mariani 和 ROTH 的對話。

Wanted to kind of approach the maintenance question a little bit differently here. So just kind of wanted to get a sense of kind of what you think roughly maintenance activity is. Is that two DJ Basin rigs, four Permian rigs? Just trying to get a little bit more color around that. And then obviously, you mentioned briefly that you're going to start tilling more wells, kind of mid-first quarter.

我想在這裡以稍微不同的方式處理維護問題。所以只是想了解一下您認為的維護活動大致是什麼。那是兩台 DJ Basin 鑽孔機，四台 Permian 鑽孔機嗎？只是想在這周圍獲得更多的色彩。顯然，您簡短地提到您將在第一季中期開始耕種更多油井。

So you got some pretty low CapEx guidance in 4Q. Should we expect that literally, some new activity shows up kind of right around January 1 for the company? Just trying to get a sense of how you're thinking about it.

因此，第四季的資本支出指引相當低。我們是否應該預期公司會在 1 月 1 日左右出現一些新活動？只是想了解您的想法。

Yes. Thanks, Leo. Yes, first, on the low fourth quarter CapEx, that's really a byproduct of pulling forward some of that capital into the third quarter. A lot of that was facility-related a little bit on the D&C side. But that was -- that resulted in a low 4Q guide. We know that's not a sustainable level of activity.

是的。謝謝，利奧。是的，首先，第四季資本支出較低，這實際上是將部分資本提前到第三季的副產品。其中許多都與 D&C 方面的設施有關。但這導致第四季度指引值較低。我們知道這不是可持續的活動水平。

On the maintenance level, I think what's really interesting for us as we, in the DJ, really go extended reach. In the Permian, we're extending laterals. We're also really becoming much more efficient with the rigs that we have.

在維護層面上，我認為對我們來說真正有趣的是，因為我們作為 DJ，真的延伸了範圍。在二疊紀，我們正在延伸支線。我們擁有的鑽孔機也確實變得更有效率。

That maintenance level of activity and rigs is moving around, and we're becoming much, much more efficient. I'd tell you that two rigs in the DJ, four in the Permian, we'll continue to look at scenarios where you lean in a little bit heavier in the DJ or a little bit lighter in the Permian with the inventory that we've got, be in that four, five or six rig range.

活動和鑽機的維護水準正在發生變化，我們的效率正在變得非常非常高。我想告訴你，DJ 中有兩個鑽機，二疊紀有四個，我們將繼續研究這樣的場景，即您在 DJ 中傾斜一點，或者在二疊紀中傾斜一點，我們的庫存我們有，在四個、五個或六個鑽孔機範圍內。

Those are all the scenarios we're looking at in 2025. And again, we're going to be guided by free cash flow. And would love to get to that level load for the year. But I'd say you're not far off on how you started to frame it.

這些都是我們在 2025 年考慮的所有場景。再說一遍，我們將以自由現金流為指導。並且希望今年能夠達到這個水準的負載。但我想說，你在如何開始建造它方面並沒有相差太遠。

Okay. Appreciate that. And I just wanted to follow up a little bit on the Wolfcamp D. So you know what, I think that a lot of other operators in the Midland have kind of classified the D as maybe a little bit less important and having economics that weren't quite as good as the A and B out there. So maybe just provide a little bit more color as to why you guys think that it's more competitive in your portfolio?

好的。很欣賞這一點。我只是想對 Wolfcamp D 進行一些跟進。 所以你知道嗎，我認為米德蘭的許多其他運營商都將 D 歸類為可能不太重要，並且具有不那麼重要的經濟性。好。那麼也許只是提供更多的資訊來解釋為什麼你們認為它在你們的投資組合中更具競爭力？

And it sounds like the returns could be similar or better if I'm kind of reading the information here, right, that you provided.

聽起來，如果我閱讀您提供的信息，回報可能會相似或更好。

Yes, Leo, I'd tell you, we would have been -- we were one of those operators saying the same thing. The way we thought about Wolfcamp D was this could be pretty interesting. It's not a zone that you've got to codevelop with the As and the Bs, and so we had it out there as a potential. What's changed in our view is, 16 wells in, is, all right, capital is a little bit lower than what we thought. The team executed very well.

是的，利奧，我會告訴你，我們本來會 - 我們是那些說同樣話的運營商之一。我們對 Wolfcamp D 的看法是這可能非常有趣。這不是一個必須與 A 級和 B 級共同開發的區域，因此我們將其視為一個潛力。我們的觀點發生了變化，16口井，好吧，資本比我們想像的要低一點。團隊執行得非常好。

And so you're seeing a little bit 5% to 10% higher on capital. That was better than we were anticipating. And then the real eye-opener was as we were turning these on and having them really compete compared to the A and B. And so we knew that in order for the D to compete for capital that you'd have to make up for that additional CapEx, we just didn't think it was going to be there, and we were very surprised by it.

所以你會看到資本增加了 5% 到 10%。這比我們預期的要好。然後真正令人大開眼界的是當我們打開這些並讓它們與 A 和 B 進行真正競爭時。會在那裡，我們對此感到非常驚訝。

And so look, we're not going all in on the D by any stretch, but we had about 10% of our 2024 spend allocated to the D. It will compete for capital. It's probably going to be in that 20%, 30% of the program going forward. And so I think if you go back to the call when we entered the Permian, one of the things we and also other operators in the Permian Love is this is an oil province that continues to highlight these emerging zones, and the D is just the next one that's starting to compete for capital, and there are others out there.

因此，我們不會全力投入 D 項目，但我們將 2024 年支出的約 10% 分配給了 D 項目。它可能會出現在未來計劃的 20%、30% 中。所以我認為，如果你回到我們進入二疊紀時的電話，我們以及二疊紀之愛的其他運營商的一件事是，這是一個繼續突出這些新興區域的石油省，而 D 只是下一個開始爭奪資本，還有其他公司。

Your next question comes from the line of Tim Rezvan with KeyBanc Capital Markets.

您的下一個問題來自 KeyBanc Capital Markets 的 Tim Rezvan。

I don't know if this is more for Chris or Hodge. But looking at your operating areas, the most derisked one where you have built a steady backlog of permits and where you're getting real value for your natural gas is in Colorado, with well results looking much stronger.

我不知道這是否更適合克里斯或霍奇。但看看您的作業區域，風險最大的區域是科羅拉多州，那裡已經積累了穩定的許可證積壓，並且您的天然氣獲得了真正的價值，而且油井結果看起來要好得多。

And as you look after the governor [supposed] tenure year ends, 2029, there's some uncertainty. I know you're focused on maximizing free cash flow, but from a pragmatic point of view, why not pull that value forward and allocate kind of more capital there, especially with the natural gas challenges in Waha?

當你觀察州長[預計的]任期結束時間（2029 年）時，存在一些不確定性。我知道您專注於最大化自由現金流，但從務實的角度來看，為什麼不將這一價值向前推進並在那裡分配更多資本，特別是在瓦哈面臨天然氣挑戰的情況下？

Yes. Thank you for the question, Tim. And yes, that's exactly the exercise and the debate that we're having internally and -- and I think the benefit of having good strong returns in the DJ gives us the opportunity if we wanted to lean in a little bit on allocating capital to Watkins or to our greater position in the DJ, we have that opportunity. The team's been focused since the compromise last year or this year, earlier this year of really underpinning a more active program to give us the flexibility in order to allocate a little bit more there.

是的。謝謝你的提問，提姆。是的，這正是我們內部正在進行的練習和辯論——我認為，如果我們想稍微向沃特金斯分配資本，那麼 DJ 獲得良好強勁回報的好處給我們提供了機會或者為了我們在DJ中的更大地位，我們有這個機會。自從去年或今年的妥協以來，該團隊一直專注於真正支持一個更積極的計劃，以便為我們提供靈活性，以便在那裡分配更多的資金。

We -- to your point, we're ultimately going to be focused on what is the most efficient use of capital in 2025. And if we can get close to that with more DJ activity than less, to your point, there is very clear markers on the value of our Permian position and less so on the DJ. And so one of those extra considerations would be, hey, if we can allocate a little bit more to the DJ and have as efficient a program or nearly efficient program, it's something that we'd lean in on. So I'll tell you that work is ongoing right now, and we'll have the final plan here in February.

對於您的觀點，我們最終將重點放在 2025 年資本的最有效利用。如果我們能夠透過更多的 DJ 活動來接近這一目標，那麼就您的觀點而言，我們二疊紀位置的價值有非常清晰的標記，而 DJ 的價值則較少。因此，這些額外的考慮因素之一是，嘿，如果我們可以為 DJ 分配更多一點，並擁有同樣高效或接近高效的程序，那麼我們就會依賴它。所以我會告訴你，工作現在正在進行中，我們將在二月在這裡制定最終計劃。

I'll also add to your point on nat gas is yes, we're certainly getting stronger gas realizations in the Rockies versus zero or negative in some cases in the Permian. But even then, gas is only in the Rockies, it's only 6%, 7% of our total revenue anyway. So oil is always that's kind of driving economics.

我還要補充一點，關於天然氣的觀點是肯定的，我們在落基山脈肯定會獲得更強的天然氣產量，而在某些情況下，二疊紀的天然氣產量為零或為負。但即便如此，天然氣也只存在於洛磯山脈，無論如何也只占我們總收入的 6%、7%。因此，石油始終是經濟的驅動力。

Okay. That makes sense, Marianella. And it's a good segue, and my follow-up was intended for you. You've been active kind of protecting basis in West Texas. It looks like you have about $130 million a day swapped through 2026 and the outlook looks pretty bleak through that time.

好的。這是有道理的，瑪麗內拉。這是一個很好的延續，我的後續內容就是為您準備的。你一直在西德克薩斯州積極保護基地。看起來，到 2026 年，每天的交易量約為 1.3 億美元，而這段時間內的前景看起來相當黯淡。

Is that a good amount? Are you still looking to get more protection? Just sort of curious what you can do or what you're trying to do on the margin there?

這個金額好嗎？您還在尋求更多保護嗎？只是有點好奇你能做什麼或你想在那裡做什麼？

Yes, for sure. Look, we're always trying to improve our realizations and certainly not a big fan of paying for transport to take our gas away. I think at this point, we -- as we were looking out early this year into '25 and '26, we decided to take that opportunistic hedging or risk off, if you will, in the spring. We essentially hedged half of the Permian gas balance of this year or second half of this year. And that's been insanely successful, right?

是的，當然。看，我們一直在努力提高我們的認識，當然也不熱衷於支付交通費用來帶走我們的汽油。我認為，在這一點上，正如我們在今年年初展望 25 年和 26 年一樣，我們決定在春季採取機會主義對沖或風險規避（如果你願意的話）。我們基本上對沖了今年或今年下半年二疊紀天然氣餘額的一半。這非常成功，對吧？

I mean, the Q3 realizations alone were $29 million, so they improved our netbacks. A company-wide -- gas companywide, about $0.50, $0.60. So obviously, that's going to translate into increased realizations into Q4 as well.

我的意思是，僅第三季就實現了 2900 萬美元，因此他們改善了我們的淨收益。全公司範圍——天然氣公司範圍，約 0.50 美元、0.60 美元。顯然，這也將轉化為第四季實現的增加。

I'm not sure we'll beat that amount. We'll see where Waha ended the quarter and the year here. In '25-'26, we looked at just the capacities that are coming online, there's just not much in '25. I mean, there's going to be quite a bit in '26 and it seems like a lot of those are late '26, call it, in the 7 Bcf a day range of additional capacity. I think us and probably others were or have been a little disappointed at the uplift we've seen so far from Matterhorn, really, it hasn't been much, maybe about $1.50 or so. And so just looking at all those pieces, we aggressively, to your point, Tim, we decided to add on those positions for '25 and '26.

我不確定我們是否會超過這個數字。我們將在這裡看到娃哈本季和本年度的結束情況。在 25-26 年，我們只查看了即將上線的容量，25 年的容量並不多。我的意思是，26 年將會有相當多的產能，而且其中許多似乎都在 26 年後期，可以這麼說，在每天 7 Bcf 的額外產能範圍內。我認為我們和其他人可能對我們迄今為止從馬特宏峰看到的上升感到有點失望，實際上，上升幅度並不大，可能約為 1.50 美元左右。因此，只要看看所有這些部分，我們就積極地考慮你的觀點，蒂姆，我們決定為 25 和 26 添加這些位置。

I think at this point, we're not particularly inclined to add a lot more. I mean we certainly are keeping a close pulse on the additional supply demand dynamics in the basin. I would say that because they're a little bit longer term out and because of our flexible business plan, to the extent that it gets -- again, like I said earlier, gas is not a big driver. But to the extent that we can adjust activity to perhaps earlier areas or the DJ, for example, if we would like to do that, that's an option for us.

我認為目前我們並不特別傾向於添加更多內容。我的意思是，我們當然正在密切關注該盆地的額外供應需求動態。我之所以這麼說，是因為它們的期限有點長，而且由於我們靈活的業務計劃，在某種程度上，正如我之前所說，天然氣並不是一個很大的推動因素。但在某種程度上，我們可以將活動調整到可能較早的區域或 DJ，例如，如果我們願意這樣做，這對我們來說是一個選擇。

So I think at this point, not particular inclined increase at much from $1.50, but to the extent that we get a good window or some good tailwinds in the market that we see a good opportunity to continue adding, we certainly would consider that.

因此，我認為，在這一點上，不會特別傾向於從1.50 美元大幅上漲，但如果我們在市場上獲得一個良好的窗口或一些良好的順風，我們看到了繼續增加的好機會，我們當然會考慮這一點。

Your next question comes from the line of Oliver Huang with TPH.

您的下一個問題來自 TPH 的 Oliver Huang。

Just wanted to kind of focus on the further optimization of development in Midland. Certainly good to see the 15% uplift you all have highlighted in your slides on your first round of considerations on this space, higher intensity completions. But just trying to think through from here what the main levers that you all could potentially look at further tweaking on the horizon in the near term over the next 6 to 12 months from a productivity perspective?

只是想集中精力進一步優化米德蘭的發展。當然很高興看到你們在幻燈片中強調了關於這個領域的第一輪考慮的 15% 的提升，更高強度的完成。但從這裡想一想，從生產力的角度來看，在未來 6 到 12 個月的短期內，你們可能會考慮進一步調整的主要槓桿是什麼？

Yes. Thanks, Oliver. To address your question, I'd point you to a couple of things. One, whether it's upspacing or spacing off existing wells, our team is really focused in, as I said in my remarks on incremental returns. And just to put a fine point on that, let's say, you've got a 6-well per section development.

是的。謝謝，奧利佛。為了解決你的問題，我想向你指出一些事情。一，正如我在關於增量回報的評論中所說，無論是擴大空間還是隔離現有油井，我們團隊都真正關注這一點。為了強調這一點，假設您每部分有 6 孔開發。

We're not looking at, hey, what are the return average for those six wells? We're looking at what is the sixth well? How -- what is that return on that sixth well? And so -- that -- what that ultimately does is it leads us to be a little bit more conservative, feel out of a well or so and really drive a better cash-on-cash return as a program.

我們不是在看，嘿，這六口井的平均報酬率是多少？我們在看第六口井是什麼？第六口井的回報是多少？因此，最終的結果是，它會讓我們變得更加保守，感覺自己已經走投無路了，並真正推動了更好的現金回報作為一個計劃。

And so that work will continue. It's very bespoke to each DSU. Everyone is a little bit different. I think as we look forward, we're always leaning in on the subsurface to understand are we targeting the wells appropriately. Are we staying in zone as best as we can.

因此這項工作將繼續下去。它是為每個 DSU 量身定制的。每個人都有點不同。我認為，當我們展望未來時，我們總是依靠地下來了解我們是否適當地瞄準了井。我們是否盡可能留在區域內？

Are there further optimizations on completions. And that's really just the DNA of a company that is focused on continuous improvement and focused in on returns. I think when you couple that with an operating team that is looking to deliver the best wellbores quickly and safely as possible, what you see is very quick from -- for into, a very quick decision into -- I would say, not top quartile yet, but a clear line of sight to get there.

完成方面是否有進一步的最佳化。這確實是一家專注於持續改進和回報的公司的 DNA。我認為，當你將其與希望盡可能快速、安全地提供最佳井眼的營運團隊結合時，你會看到很快就做出了決定，我想說，不是前四分之一還沒有，但到達那裡的視線清晰。

And then from here, you'll just continue to see whether it's simul frac or other opportunities just to peel out time cost waste out of the system. If we got the team focused in on the right things, you'll see that quarter-over-quarter.

然後從這裡開始，您將繼續查看是否同時壓裂或其他機會，只是為了消除系統中的時間成本浪費。如果我們讓團隊專注於正確的事情，你會看到季度環比的情況。

And so it's going to be a ton of small little things that will continue to deliver a better, more capital-efficient result.

因此，大量的小事將繼續帶來更好、資本效率更高的結果。

That's helpful color. And maybe just a quick follow-up. Is there another leg down that you all have line of sight to and kind of thinking about Q4 2025 service costs when you're just -- anything to kind of be aware of in terms of just the recontracting negotiations that are kind of going on? And when you're kind of referencing the $1.95 billion ballpark number for maintenance, how much year-over-year deflation does that kind of assume?

這是有用的顏色。也許只是快速跟進。是否還有另一條腿，你們所有人都對 2025 年第四季的服務成本有一定的關注和思考，當你們只是——就正在進行的重新合約談判而言，有什麼需要注意的事情嗎？當你參考 19.5 億美元的維護費用時，假設每年的通貨緊縮程度是多少？

Yes. The $1.95 billion is where we started in '24 from there to now. We've seen some deflation in consumables, tubulars, et cetera. Obviously, I would say on the service side, the rig side, we've seen some deflation from where we were late '23 to now, probably a little bit more on the rig side than we have on the frac side. We're also upgrading some of our frac fleets, whether it's going to e-fleets, a little more efficient operation there.

是的。19.5 億美元是我們從 24 年開始到現在的金額。我們已經看到消耗品、管材等出現了一些通貨緊縮。顯然，我想說，在服務方面、鑽機方面，從 23 年末到現在，我們已經看到了一些通貨緊縮，鑽機方面可能比壓裂方面多一點。我們還升級了一些壓裂船隊，無論是升級為電子船隊，還是那裡的營運效率更高一些。

But I would say consumables were the big driver from '24 to now. As we look forward, the same volatility that we see is the volatility the service companies see, right? And they're trying to figure out where is the market going. I think -- we're not going to be a -- I don't know that you'll see us take a massive step down year-over-year. We try not to take long commitments. We try to be as close to market as possible.

但我想說，從 24 年至今，消耗品是主要推動力。展望未來，我們看到的波動性與服務公司看到的波動性相同，對嗎？他們正試圖弄清楚市場的走向。我認為——我們不會——我不知道你會看到我們逐年大幅下降。我們盡量不做出長期承諾。我們盡量貼近市場。

There's going to be surely a noise for a quarter or two, but that allows us to be responsive to whatever the macro brings. And so I think it's early to think a year ahead, where our service costs because we don't know how that macro and how the overall volatility sort of works out. But like I said, I think both sides of the coin are trying to figure that out.

肯定會有一兩個季度的噪音，但這使我們能夠對宏觀帶來的任何情況做出反應。因此，我認為現在考慮未來一年我們的服務成本還為時過早，因為我們不知道宏觀經濟如何以及整體波動如何影響。但就像我說的，我認為硬幣的兩面都在試圖解決這個問題。

Your next question comes from the line of John Abbott with Wolfe Research.

您的下一個問題來自沃爾夫研究中心的約翰·阿博特。

I appreciate taking our questions here. And I also appreciate the color and thought about 2025 when we see commodity prices here lower. We had a bit of a discussion last night, but commodity prices are sort of -- are lower. Then you sort of think about allocation in a lower price environment.

我很高興在這裡提出我們的問題。我也很欣賞這種顏色，並想到了 2025 年，當我們看到這裡的商品價格更低時。昨晚我們進行了一些討論，但大宗商品價格有所下降。然後你會考慮在較低價格環境下進行配置。

There are benefits to maintaining operations in each of your areas because you do have economic positions there and you have built this momentum. So you -- as you sort of think about that, how much activities do you see as necessary like from the DJ or the Midland or the Del to maintain efficiencies if we sort of see lower commodity prices?

在每個地區維持營運都有好處，因為您確實在那裡擁有經濟地位並且已經建立了這種勢頭。那麼，當您思考這個問題時，如果我們看到商品價格下降，您認為 DJ、米德蘭或德爾需要多少活動來維持效率？

Yes. Thanks, John. Thanks for the question. You're exactly right. I think I'm excited about the operating momentum that we've continued in the DJ and that we've really established throughout the year in the Permian.

是的。謝謝，約翰。謝謝你的提問。你說得完全正確。我想我對我們在 DJ 中持續的營運勢頭以及我們在二疊紀全年真正建立的營運勢頭感到興奮。

We've been -- as far down as a rig in the DJ and that allows us to maintain the crews, maintain that momentum, and then we'll scale up or back as needed. I think that's a pretty minimal level that would be gap down in commodity price type activity level, but that allows us to keep the momentum there on the DJ side.

我們一直在 - 一直到 DJ 中的一個設備，這使我們能夠維持工作人員，保持這種勢頭，然後我們將根據需要擴大或縮小規模。我認為這是一個相當小的水平，在商品價格類型的活動水平上會出現差距，但這使我們能夠保持 DJ 方面的勢頭。

On the Permian side, we're sitting -- it's how do we marry those rigs with frac crews, because that's the other piece here. And the level of three rigs or so is probably not a bad maintenance level. It's why you've seen us kind of go down to that in the fourth quarter.

在二疊紀一側，我們正在討論如何將這些鑽井平台與壓裂人員結合起來，因為這是這裡的另一部分。而三台左右的水平，恐怕也算是不錯的維護水平了。這就是為什麼你看到我們在第四季度陷入了這樣的境地。

But to your point, we'd love to keep a baseload to keep up the momentum and scale up when the market is signaling that we should I think the last thing I would say, John, is this is so critical as we looked to how we wanted to expand this company and scale this company and diversify the company is -- we had to go in and get low breakeven assets.

但就你的觀點而言，當市場發出信號表明我們應該保持基本負載以保持動力並擴大規模時，約翰，我想我想說的最後一件事是，這是如此關鍵，因為我們正在研究如何我們想要擴大這家公司，擴大這家公司的規模，並使公司多元化——我們必須進入並獲得低盈虧平衡資產。

And it's for times such as you describe, if commodity prices weaken further that, hey, we can deploy capital, maintain a level load of operating momentum and still generate significant returns, generate significant free cash flow for our shareholders. So all of that will go into how responsive, how flexible we want to be as we see how the macro sort of settles out over the coming months plus.

在你描述的這種情況下，如果大宗商品價格進一步走弱，我們可以部署資本，保持一定水平的營運動力，同時仍然產生可觀的回報，為我們的股東產生大量的自由現金流。因此，當我們看到未來幾個月宏觀經濟狀況如何穩定時，所有這些都將取決於我們的反應能力和靈活性。

Yes. And then it's been -- the topic has already been brought up about the variable dividend, but just sort of want to approach it a slightly different way. So the focus here right now is on buybacks, just given where the shares are. When you sort of think about signaling to the market, I mean, there are plans out there where companies switched between variable and buybacks. Does it make sense ever to go back to a variable but dividend as you're sort of making a statement about where your stock is at?

是的。然後，關於可變股息的話題已經被提出，但只是想以稍微不同的方式來處理它。因此，現在的重點是回購，只要考慮到股票的位置即可。當你考慮向市場發出信號時，我的意思是，公司有一些計劃在可變和回購之間切換。當你對你的股票狀況做出陳述時，回到股息以外的變數是否有意義？

Or do you just continue to -- at this point in time, just given where your shares are, do you continue to focus on the buyback and just manage to fix dividend? So does the variable dividend have a place going forward?

或者你會繼續下去——在這個時間點，考慮到你的股票的位置，你會繼續專注於回購並設法固定股息嗎？那麼可變股利未來還有發展空間嗎？

Yes, it's a good question, John. I would start with our commitment to returning capital to our shareholders is critical for us. And in the past, that had a variable component to it. As we look forward, I'm hopeful, three months from now, six months from now, we are on this call, we're debating that very question. We're a long way away from having that debate, however, just given what we're seeing from our asset base and how the team is executing.

是的，這是一個好問題，約翰。首先，我們承諾向股東返還資本對我們至關重要。在過去，這有一個可變的組成部分。當我們展望未來時，我充滿希望，三個月後、六個月後，我們正在進行這場電話會議，我們正在討論這個問題。然而，考慮到我們從我們的資產基礎中看到的情況以及團隊的執行方式，我們距離進行這場辯論還有很長的路要走。

All of that balance also with protecting our balance sheet and keeping leverage in a manageable position. And so I think you raised an interesting question. I would tell you that we are committed to getting capital back to our shareholders in any form. The decision that the Board made last quarter really set us up to protect the balance sheet, live up to that commitment and really take advantage of what we believe is a highly undervalued equity.

所有這些平衡還可以保護我們的資產負債表並將槓桿保持在可控的位置。所以我認為你提出了一個有趣的問題。我想告訴你，我們致力於以任何形式將資本回饋給股東。董事會上季度所做的決定確實使我們能夠保護資產負債表，履行這一承諾，並真正利用我們認為被高度低估的股權。

Your next question comes from the line of Noel Parks with Tuohy Brothers.

您的下一個問題來自 Noel Parks 和 Tuohy Brothers 的線路。

I've been thinking about inventory and further technical advancements, how that can potentially open up more inventory on existing holdings. And it seems like we're in a time where basins are seeing more divergence of what's going on operator by operator in the basin, as opposed to those times when everybody is pushing higher sand content or spacing is all going one way.

我一直在考慮庫存和進一步的技術進步，以及如何在現有資產上開闢更多庫存。似乎我們正處於這樣一個時代，盆地中各個運營商的情況存在更多分歧，而不是每個人都在推動更高的含沙量或間距都是單向的時代。

And so as you think about looking at acquisitions out there, does see -- and yourself going after the [wolf B] when other people have kind of [backed] it. Does that divergence make you say, pickier about acquisitions? Or in context, does it make you a little bit more adventurous in terms of how you might look at something that's interesting and maybe how you value the upside, the unbooked upside potential?

因此，當你考慮進行收購時，確實會看到——當其他人[支持]它時，你自己卻在追隨[狼B]。這種分歧是否會讓您對收購更加挑剔？或者在上下文中，它是否讓你在如何看待有趣的事物以及如何評估其上行空間、未預訂的上行潛力方面更具冒險精神？

Yes. Thanks for the question. No, I think it makes us more informed as we look at acquisitions. And I think the position that we're in today that we weren't a year ago is we had to underwrite the transactions that we made based on previous operators' performance. And we looked at, hey, if we're able to get our feet under us, if we're able to build that operating momentum, if we're able to optimize completions and development, this is what could be.

是的。謝謝你的提問。不，我認為這讓我們在考慮收購時更加了解情況。我認為我們今天所處的位置與一年前不同的是，我們必須根據以前運營商的表現來承保我們進行的交易。我們看著，嘿，如果我們能夠站穩腳跟，如果我們能夠建立這種營運勢頭，如果我們能夠優化竣工和開發，這就是可能的結果。

Now, interestingly, you've got an operating team that is delivering good capital efficiency that we have a view on how we're optimizing development, not just in the A and B, but with some of the emerging zones. And you have a subsurface team coupled with that technical operating team that really understands the assets and what this team can deliver much more -- with much more clarity today than a year ago.

現在，有趣的是，您擁有一支能夠提供良好資本效率的營運團隊，我們對如何優化開發有自己的看法，不僅是在 A 區和 B 區，而且還包括一些新興區域。您擁有一個地下團隊和一個技術營運團隊，他們真正了解資產以及該團隊可以提供更多內容 - 今天比一年前更加清晰。

And so as we look at opportunities, whether it's small ground game or acquisitions, it's from a place of having that track record built up, which is a great place to be. We will be much more informed of what this team is able to deliver and, therefore, have a better view of how valuable those assets or those sticks could be in the hands of Civitas.

因此，當我們尋找機會時，無論是小型地面遊戲還是收購，它都來自於已經建立了良好記錄的地方，這是一個很棒的地方。我們將更加了解這個團隊能夠提供什麼，因此，可以更好地了解這些資產或這些棍棒在 Civitas 手中的價值有多大。

It's exciting, a year in, to be where we are. But I would leave you with one thought, and that is we're going to be disciplined in everything that we do. We will ultimately be a top quartile operator. That will give us advantages to -- the assets will be better in our hands. We're not where we need to be yet, but we're getting there. And in all things, we are very much aligned with shareholders, and we'll do the right thing for long-term shareholder value.

一年過去了，我們達到了現在的水平，這真是令人興奮。但我想留給你們一個想法，那就是我們將在我們所做的一切事情上遵守紀律。我們最終將成為排名前四分之一的營運商。這將為我們帶來優勢——資產將更好地掌握在我們手中。我們還沒有達到我們需要達到的目標，但我們正在實現目標。在所有事情上，我們與股東的立場非常一致，我們會為股東的長期價值做正確的事。

Great. And you mentioned Matterhorn and the uplift there so far. I have heard some operators express the opinion that when maintenance wraps up on some of the other pipelines and sort of what the ripple effect was that -- would look like, that there's still reason to believe that there could be some pretty significant improvement in basis -- appearing from what Matterhorn, it just hasn't manifested yet. Are you sort of in that camp? Or do you see it a little differently?

偉大的。你提到了馬特宏峰和迄今為止那裡的隆起。我聽到一些運營商表達了這樣的觀點，即當其他一些管道的維護工作結束時，以及連鎖反應是什麼樣的，仍然有理由相信基礎設施可能會出現一些相當顯著的改善——從馬特宏峰看來，它只是還沒顯現出來。你屬於那個陣營嗎？或者你有什麼不同的看法嗎？

No, I would say that -- I mean, look, from what we're seeing, there's about 1.5 Bcf blowing through Matterhorn, that's a 2.5 Bcf pipe. I would imagine -- and I haven't seen the detail close of the other pipes, but I would imagine this all very recent, right, Matterhorn's about a month ago. I would imagine flows elsewhere going down because there really just wasn't that much gas waiting for home. So yes, certainly, some of the items you're bringing up on maintenance are correct. We certainly haven't seen them yet.

不，我想說的是——我的意思是，看，從我們所看到的來看，大約有 1.5 Bcf 的風吹過馬特宏峰，那是一根 2.5 Bcf 的管道。我可以想像——我還沒有看到其他管道的細節，但我可以想像這一切都是最近的，對吧，馬特宏峰大約一個月前。我想像其他地方的流量會下降，因為實際上沒有那麼多天然氣等待回家。所以，是的，當然，您提出的一些維護項目是正確的。我們當然還沒看到他們。

So we're cautiously optimistic. Like we said earlier, we hedged away 50% well -- late 2020 through the end of 2026. So we're cautiously optimistic. Frankly, not seeing it just yet.

所以我們持謹慎樂觀的態度。正如我們之前所說，從 2020 年底到 2026 年底，我們對沖了 50%。所以我們持謹慎樂觀的態度。坦白說，目前還沒有看到。

And that concludes our question-and-answer session. And I will now turn the conference back over to Brad Whitmarsh for closing comments.

我們的問答環節到此結束。現在我將把會議轉回給布拉德惠特馬什（Brad Whitmarsh）徵求總結意見。

Yes. Thanks, Christa, and everybody for joining us today. We'll be around this afternoon and into next week. So if you have any follow-up questions, certainly, don't hesitate to reach out. I hope you have a great weekend, and please be safe.

是的。謝謝克里斯塔和大家今天加入我們。我們將在今天下午左右進行並持續到下週。因此，如果您有任何後續問題，當然，請隨時與我們聯繫。希望您週末愉快，請注意安全。

This concludes today's conference call. Thank you for your participation, and you may now disconnect.

今天的電話會議到此結束。感謝您的參與，您現在可以斷開連接。