Citizens Inc (CIA) 2012 Q1 法說會逐字稿

Welcome to Citizens, Inc., 2012 first quarter conference call. At this time, all participants are in a listen-only mode. After the formal remarks, there will be a question-and-answer session. (Operator Instructions.)

歡迎參加 Citizens, Inc. 2012 年第一季電話會議。此時，所有參與者都處於只聽模式。正式發言後，將進行問答環節。 （操作員說明。）

I would like to now turn the call over to Ms. Osbourn. You may begin.

我現在想把電話轉給奧斯本女士。你可以開始了。

Thank you, Anthony. Good morning and welcome to our earnings conference call. I am Kay Osbourn, Citizens' Chief Financial Officer. Joining me on the call today are Rick Riley, our Vice Chairman and President; Geoff Kolander, our Executive Vice President, Corporate Secretary, and General Counsel.

謝謝你，安東尼。早上好，歡迎參加我們的財報電話會議。我是公民財務長凱‧奧斯本。今天和我一起參加電話會議的是我們的副主席兼總裁 Rick Riley； Geoff Kolander，我們的執行副總裁、公司秘書兼總法律顧問。

Before I turn the call over to Rick for our opening remarks, let me get a few formalities out of the way. First, yesterday we issued our earnings release and filed our first quarter Form 10-Q. Those documents are available on our website at citizensinc.com.

在我把電話轉給里克進行開場白之前，讓我先辦理一些手續。首先，昨天我們發布了收益報告並提交了第一季 10-Q 表格。這些文件可在我們的網站 Citizensinc.com 上取得。

Second, during today's call, we will discuss the expected performance of Citizens, Inc., which will constitute forward-looking information within the meaning of the Private Securities Litigation Act. Actual results may differ materially from any forward-looking information provided in this call, since such information involves significant risks and uncertainties. A complete Safe Harbor disclaimer is included in Citizens, Inc., press release dated May 7, 2012, and is incorporated by reference into this call. We are not responsible for transcripts of this call made by independent third parties.

其次，在今天的電話會議中，我們將討論 Citizens, Inc. 的預期業績，這將構成《私人證券訴訟法》含義內的前瞻性資訊。實際結果可能與本次電話會議中提供的任何前瞻性資訊有重大差異，因為此類資訊涉及重大風險和不確定性。完整的安全港免責聲明包含在 Citizens, Inc. 2012 年 5 月 7 日的新聞稿中，並透過引用納入本次電話會議。我們不對獨立第三方的通話記錄負責。

Finally, reconciliation of non-GAAP information as required by Regulation G was provided with the release and also is available on our website.

最後，本新聞稿中也提供了 G 條例要求的非 GAAP 資訊調節表，也可在我們的網站上取得。

Rick?

瑞克？

Thank you, Kay. Good morning and welcome to the call. We appreciate the opportunity to visit with you and pleased to be on the line today. We've had a fairly consistent, predictable quarter in the first quarter as far as consistent earnings and stable results -- again, pretty much within what we would have expected and not many surprises. The results are primarily driven by the Home Service operations, and we'll get into those details here in just a minute.

謝謝你，凱。 早安，歡迎您的來電。 我們很高興有機會拜訪您，並很高興今天能上線。 就持續的獲利和穩定的業績而言，我們在第一季的表現相當穩定、可預測——同樣，這幾乎在我們的預期之內，沒有太多驚喜。 結果主要由家庭服務運作驅動，我們稍後將詳細介紹這些細節。

Our goal today will be to share with you the details of what we've seen here within the Citizens operations through this first quarter. Kay and I will work back and forth between the topics as we cover insurance operations, investments, and then we'll open the call for questions.

我們今天的目標是與您分享第一季我們在公民業務中所看到的細節。 凱和我將在討論保險業務、投資時在各個主題之間來回討論，然後我們將開始提問。

The life segment of the operation accounted for about 75% of the first quarter premiums, which also represented a 4.4% premium growth. And the international business, which makes up the majority of that segment, is the area where we've been serving foreign clients for more than 35 years. And policyholders continue to be focused upon products that are accumulation-oriented products rather than term or face amount. Of course, that's really what we sell and how we promote. And therefore, what we see in our results doesn't really surprise us in terms of what clients are buying, because that's what we're selling.

該業務的壽險業務約佔第一季保費的 75%，保費也成長了 4.4%。 國際業務佔該細分市場的大部分，是我們為外國客戶提供服務超過 35 年的領域。 保單持有人繼續關注以累積為導向的產品，而不是期限或面額產品。 當然，這就是我們銷售的產品和促銷的方式。 因此，就客戶購買的產品而言，我們在結果中看到的結果並沒有真正讓我們感到驚訝，因為這就是我們所銷售的產品。

The international dollar-denominated business can certainly be influenced by local economic challenges, but in our experience over the past three decades, when a country becomes less stable economically and/or politically -- economically such as Argentina, politically such as Venezuela -- our products remain fairly popular, if not even in more demand than when things are routine and normal. But we began seeing continued stable and routine activities in those foreign, Latin American markets particularly.

以美元計價的國際業務當然會受到當地經濟挑戰的影響，但根據我們過去三十年的經驗，當一個國家在經濟和/或政治上變得不太穩定時——經濟上如阿根廷，政治上如委內瑞拉——我們的產品仍然相當受歡迎，即使需求量沒有比正常情況下更多。 但我們開始看到外國市場（尤其是拉丁美洲市場）持續穩定且常規的活動。

Growth in the fourth quarter is driven in the international market predominantly by strong persistency. That also translates into bottom line profitability for us when the average life of our product portfolio is extended as a result of persistency.

第四季的成長主要是由國際市場的強勁持續性所推動的。 當我們的產品組合的平均壽命因堅持而延長時，這也轉化為我們的底線盈利能力。

We've seen a slight lag of new business growth in the Latin American market during the first quarter, although seasonally, that's pretty much what we expect. This is the period of time when most of our folks, that's summertime for them, and it's usually the lowest and the weakest quarter that we see each year. So again, that's within expectation and not particularly abnormal, even though we did see the lag.

我們看到第一季拉丁美洲市場的新業務成長略有滯後，儘管從季節性角度來看，這幾乎符合我們的預期。 對我們大多數人來說，這段時間是夏季，通常是我們每年看到的最低和最弱的季度。 再說一遍，這在預期之內，並不是特別異常，儘管我們確實看到了滯後。

The Citizens policies utilize a policy loan feature, and that's particularly helpful in this international marketplace. We'll see those loans used to bridge timing of conversion of currency or whatever it is they're needing to do to be able to make the US dollar payments, and so even though we've got -- the policy loan feature really just helps keep the policies in force and keeps them active and working to serve the client while they have these different currency conversion translation issues that they may have.

公民保單利用保單貸款功能，這在這個國際市場上特別有用。 我們將看到這些貸款用於彌合貨幣兌換的時間或他們需要做的任何事情才能支付美元，因此即使我們擁有 - 保單貸款功能實際上只是幫助保持政策有效並保持其活躍並努力為客戶提供服務，同時他們可能會遇到這些不同的貨幣兌換轉換問題。

I bring that up not to say that we've seen any greater activity there than we normally do. Again, the activity in the loan area, the timing of payments, and the flow of cash from that operation is really not any different, or significantly different, than what we've seen in the past.

我提出這一點並不是說我們在那裡看到了比平常更大的活動。 同樣，貸款領域的活動、付款時間以及該業務的現金流實際上與我們過去所看到的沒有任何不同或顯著不同。

Endowment products made up 80% of the first-year premiums. Again, that's the trend that we've seen over the last couple of years. It continues to be the primary focus in terms of sales and of what's the greatest interest to the foreign client.

儲蓄產品佔首年保費的80%。 這也是我們過去幾年看到的趨勢。 它仍然是銷售和外國客戶最大利益的主要焦點。

In the US market, the domestic business, we see renewal premiums on the book of business that we've acquired over the last 40 years as being the predominant element of that particular dimension of our life segment. That particular business continues to run off over time at a modest pace. It's not anything extraordinary. It's been fairly predictable and routine over the years, and it continues to erode in that regard.

在美國市場，即國內業務，我們認為我們在過去 40 年中獲得的業務帳簿上的續保保費是我們生活領域特定維度的主要因素。 隨著時間的推移，該特定業務繼續以溫和的速度流失。 這不是什麼了不起的事。 多年來，它一直是相當可預測的和常規的，並且在這方面它繼續受到侵蝕。

On the other hand, we are seeing a modest production in the US market. It obviously is not enough, US production, to offset the decline of the large book of business that's been there and accumulated over many decades. But we are happy with what we're seeing, or pleased as far as the consistency and the continuity of what is happening there in that particular segment.

另一方面，我們看到美國市場的產量有限。 美國的產量顯然不足以抵消幾十年來積累的大量業務的下降。 但我們對所看到的感到滿意，或對該特定部分中正在發生的事情的一致性和連續性感到滿意。

Kay, you want to --

凱，你想要──

Yes, let me give you some of the primary drivers for the lower pre-tax income for the life business. We did have some assumption changes in reserves, which were made in the fourth quarter of 2011 relating to new policy issuance, which resulted in a higher reserve liability due to the low interest rate environment. These reserve assumptions are reflected in the first quarter of 2012, but not in the comparable period a year ago.

是的，讓我向您介紹壽險業務稅前收入較低的一些主要驅動因素。 我們確實對準備金進行了一些假設變更，這些變更是在 2011 年第四季度與新保單發行相關的，導致由於低利率環境而導致準備金負債增加。 這些儲備假設反映在 2012 年第一季，但並未反映在去年同期。

Our endowment products build up reserves at a faster rate than traditional whole life products due to the shorter-term aspect of the endowments versus the mortality projection of a whole life policy. There were no changes relative to mortality or surrenders in the quarter from prior levels and expectations.

由於與終身壽險保單的死亡率預測相比，儲蓄保險的期限較短，因此我們的儲蓄產品建立儲備的速度比傳統終身壽險產品更快。 本季的死亡率或退保率與先前的水平和預期相比沒有變化。

Due to the higher percentage of premiums collected as renewals versus the prior year, where first-year premiums were a larger component of the quarter premiums, we are seeing lower commissions paid in the current quarter. Commission rates are significantly higher on first-year new business than on renewal premiums.

由於與前一年相比，續保收取的保費比例較高，而第一年保費佔季度保費的比例較大，因此我們看到本季支付的佣金較低。 第一年新業務的佣金率明顯高於續保保費。

We do have the explanation of the adoption of ASU 2010-26 in our 10-Q, and I would request that you look to that document for details. But we did adopt that accounting pronouncement effective January 1, 2012. The prior year amounts have been adjusted to represent comparable figures. And so I'll turn it back to Rick for the Home Service segment.

我們確實在 10-Q 中對採用 ASU 2010-26 進行了解釋，我請求您查看該文件以了解詳細資訊。 但我們確實採用了自 2012 年 1 月 1 日起生效的會計聲明。 因此，我將把家庭服務部分的問題轉回給 Rick。

Our Home Service segment, as we said earlier, actually led the way this quarter as far as performance. They contributed $10.9 million in premiums, and it only represented 1% of the growth. However, from a bottom line perspective, they provided the majority of the significant portion of profitability coming from that particular segment.

正如我們之前所說，我們的家庭服務部門實際上在本季度的業績方面處於領先地位。 他們貢獻了 1,090 萬美元的保費，僅佔成長的 1%。 然而，從底線的角度來看，它們提供了來自該特定細分市場的大部分盈利能力。

We had a positive impact year over year as a result of some acquired books of business that we made in the latter part of last year, so you'll see that in these Home Service segment numbers. We also had the positive effect of the rate increases on the fire business that we talked about last year. And we have not implemented any new rate increases in the current period and currently don't have an immediate plan to do so, although it is something that we monitor on an ongoing basis and will do so as soon as the reviews and the analysis indicate that that would be appropriate to take that action.

由於我們在去年下半年收購了一些業務帳簿，我們逐年產生了正面的影響，因此您會在這些家庭服務部門的數字中看到這一點。 去年我們談到的消防業務的升息也對我們產生了正面的影響。 我們在當前期間沒有實施任何新的加息，目前也沒有立即這樣做的計劃，儘管我們會持續監控這一情況，並且一旦審查和分析表明我們將立即採取行動採取該行動是適當的。

We do continue to see some economic impact from surrenders in that particular market. But again, that's going to be driven by what the local economies and the US economic market is, in particular the Louisiana, Mississippi, and Arkansas parts of the country.

我們確實繼續看到該特定市場的退保對經濟產生一些影響。 但同樣，這將受到當地經濟和美國經濟市場的推動，特別是路易斯安那州、密西西比州和阿肯色州部分地區。

Kay, I'll let you take it from there.

凱，我會讓你從那裡拿走它。

As Rick indicated, this segment was really consistent relative to earnings in comparable periods. We did have a benefit from a reserve release and lower property claims. We had an IBNR claims liability, representing about $500,000 of the decrease in expenses. But really, that was the only change relative to the performance for that segment from quarter to quarter. So we'll turn it back and talk about investments now.

正如里克指出的那樣，該細分市場相對於可比較時期的收益確實是一致的。 我們確實從儲備金釋放和財產索賠減少中受益。 我們有 IBNR 索賠責任，相當於減少的費用約 50 萬美元。 但實際上，這是該細分市場每季業績的唯一變化。 所以我們現在回過頭來談談投資。

We've been able to grow investment income in this low-yield environment, predominantly because of growth in the portfolio. Our yields have remained relatively stable, although we did see another movement downward in the overall consolidated yield for the first quarter. We were up, if you recall, maybe slightly at year end and then were down a little bit.

我們能夠在這種低收益環境下增加投資收入，主​​要是因為投資組合的成長。 儘管我們確實看到第一季整體綜合收益率再次下降，但我們的收益率保持相對穩定。 如果你還記得的話，我們可能在年底略有上升，然後又略有下降。

So we do believe that we are finally seeking bottom here as far as where that bottom end position will be, and we expect that as the economy and the rates and the marketplace changes, although we do anticipate, based on all the indicators from the government, that that will be a prolonged and an extended period. It's not going to happen during 2012 or '13, it doesn't sound like.

因此，我們確實相信，我們最終正在尋求底部，就底部位置而言，我們預計隨著經濟、利率和市場的變化，儘管我們確實根據政府的所有指標進行了預測，這將是一個很長很長的時期。 這不會在 2012 年或 13 年發生，聽起來不像。

But we are positioning ourselves investment-wise with shorter overall maturity that we have the opportunity to do that. We've seen a fairly significant or material shift in our durational positions down to something under seven years and approaching five years, I think, in terms of the overall average across the portfolio as a whole, or the expected or anticipated durations.

但我們在投資方面的定位是整體成熟度較短，因此我們有機會做到這一點。 我認為，就整個投資組合的總體平均值或預期或預期久期而言，我們的久期頭寸發生了相當重大或重大的轉變，降至七年以下並接近五年。

The investments that we're making continue to be in government-guaranteed instruments, which are a challenge to get any kind of yield on a short-term basis out of, although we do, in the secondary market, find the opportunities to continue to make those investments. The majority of what we've found, or where we've found yield most effectively, is we've been able to use some tax-free municipal investments in the holding company and the fire company and in some of the non-life subs gives us the ability to take advantage of those tax-free yields and give us a little bit better boost than what we would get in the -- I guess in the government-oriented, US government-guaranteed markets.

我們正在進行的投資仍然是政府擔保的工具，這對短期獲得任何收益都是一個挑戰，儘管我們確實在二級市場上找到了繼續投資的機會。 我們發現的大部分內容，或者我們發現收益最有效的地方，是我們能夠在控股公司、消防公司以及一些非壽險子公司中使用一些免稅的市政投資讓我們有能力利用這些免稅收益，並給我們帶來比我們在政府導向的、美國政府擔保的市場中獲得的更好的推動力。

We are also using taxable municipals for essential service type securities where we can find those again. We find better than what we could get in the US government agency market as a general rule, and so we continue to see opportunities there that we take advantage of. Again, most of what we're doing from an investment standpoint is geared toward, as we have calls, as we have additional new money, we are focused on, really, short-term oriented investments.

我們也使用應稅市政來購買基本服務類型的證券，我們可以再次找到這些證券。 一般來說，我們發現比美國政府機構市場更好的東西，因此我們繼續看到我們可以利用的機會。 再說一遍，從投資的角度來看，我們所做的大部分事情都是為了，因為我們有呼籲，因為我們有額外的新資金，所以我們真正專注於短期投資。

The investments we made last fall in the bond mutual funds have served us well. We continue to get good, strong yields out of most of those. We did get a diversification, so those yields vary between those funds. But the overall valuation of those funds is up, and the overall valuation of our portfolio is up because the rates are in the down position currently.

我們去年秋天對債券共同基金的投資對我們很有幫助。 我們繼續從其中大部分產品中獲得良好、強勁的收益。 我們確實實現了多元化，因此這些基金的收益率有所不同。 但這些基金的整體估值上升，而我們投資組合的整體估值上升，因為目前利率處於下降位置。

So, again, we're continuing to what I would describe as tread water through this period of time where we've got a challenge to put money out and put it out at a yield level that we would really like to commit. But we're finding opportunities and we're continuing to be fairly patient about what we do and how we do it. And we're comfortable that we're getting done what we need to do and what we've always done historically as far as our investment portfolio is concerned.

因此，我們再次在這段時間繼續我所描述的“原地踏步”，我們面臨著投入資金並以我們真正願意承諾的收益率水平投入的挑戰。 但我們正在尋找機會，我們將繼續對我們的工作和方式保持相當耐心。 我們感到滿意的是，就我們的投資組合而言，我們正在完成我們需要做的事情以及我們歷史上一直在做的事情。

I think that probably covers it, Kay, what I want to say on the investment area. I'll let you take it from here.

凱，我想這可能涵蓋了我想說的關於投資領域的內容。 我會讓你把它從這裡拿走。

All right. Just to give you a couple of percentages to go with what Rick has indicated, our net investment income increased 3.8%. The average consolidated portfolio yields decreased to 3.76% from the quarter of 2012 compared to 3.94% in the first quarter of 2011. We did have an increase in unrealized gains in the quarter compared to December, 12/31/11. Those gains were primarily driven by our municipal securities. The market values in that segment increased as a whole, and that was primarily the driver of the unrealized gains during the quarter.

好的。 只是為了給你幾個與 Rick 所說的一致的百分比，我們的淨投資收入增加了 3.8%。 平均綜合投資組合收益率從 2012 年季度下降至 3.76%，而 2011 年第一季為 3.94%。 這些收益主要是由我們的市政證券推動的。 該細分市場的市場價值整體成長，這是本季未實現收益的主要驅動力。

With that, I'll turn it back to Rick for conclusions.

有了這個，我將把它轉回給里克以得出結論。

All right. Again, we expected this call to be relatively brief, and if we didn't have a lot of new things to talk about, things that we're dealing with or the things that we've been addressing now for several quarters. We are pleased, again, with how things are tracking. We expect that we're positioning ourselves quite well for the economic future. We continue to maintain focus on return of our principal more so than the return -- I mean, excuse me, we stay focused on return of our principal more so than the return on our principal as we make our investments.

好的。 同樣，我們預計這次電話會議將相對簡短，如果我們沒有太多新的事情要談論，我們正在處理的事情或我們現在幾個季度一直在解決的事情。 我們再次對事情的進展感到滿意。 我們預計我們已經為經濟未來做好了充分的準備。我們繼續關注本金回報，而不是回報——我的意思是，對不起，當我們進行投資時，我們更專注於本金回報，而不是本金回報。

And we continue to stay focused in terms of sales and marketing, to continue to work the markets that we've been successful in. We are working to continue to work into new markets. Nothing of any relevance there to speak to or talk about of any great extent that's happening, but we are comfortable and happy with where we're seeing the Company perform and what the profitability has been, although we do expect and anticipate that things will improve as the economy and the investment environment improves.

我們將繼續專注於銷售和行銷，並繼續開拓我們已經成功的市場。 沒有任何相關性可以談論或談論正在發生的任何重大事情，但我們對公司的表現和盈利能力感到滿意和滿意，儘管我們確實期望並預計情況會有所改善隨著經濟和投資環境的改善。

So we do have opportunities that we anticipate in the acquisition arena -- nothing that we can speak to or address from a formal standpoint -- but we do continue to look at those and expect and anticipate that we will have opportunities going forward as the market presents them.

因此，我們確實在收購領域擁有預期的機會——從正式的角度來看，我們沒有什麼可以談論或解決的機會——但我們確實會繼續關注這些機會，並期望並預計我們將有機會隨著市場的發展而前進。

Randy, I guess at this point, from an operator's standpoint, we'll let you open the call up for questions.

蘭迪，我想在這一點上，從操作員的角度來看，我們會讓您打開電話提問。

Thank you. The floor is now open for questions. (Operator Instructions.) Ed Shields.

謝謝。 現在可以提問。 （操作員說明。）Ed Shields。

So let's start off with the agent convention you guys held in April. Maybe you could talk about that. What's your sense, the mood of the agents after the convention and any new products announced there and any expectations you can provide on production from the sales force. Because as you noted, the first quarter was a little light on a seasonal basis, but I think it was even a little light compared to year over year.

那麼，就讓我們從你們四月舉行的代理商大會開始吧。 也許你可以談談這個。 您的感覺如何？ 大會結束後代理商的情緒以及會上宣布的任何新產品以及您對銷售人員的生產有何期望。 因為正如您所指出的，第一季從季節性角度來看有點淡，但我認為與去年同期相比甚至有點淡。

Well, it is, and I think some of that is, in terms of trying to explain it or address it, I've been real pleased with what we've seen and where we're seeing the production originate and what we're seeing in terms of the expansion of that operation.

嗯，確實如此，我認為其中一些是，就試圖解釋它或解決它而言，我對我們所看到的以及我們所看到的製作來源和我們正在做的事情感到非常滿意就該業務的擴展而言。

But let me address your specific question on the meetings and convention. The meetings were very positive. We introduced, or I'd say introduced -- we reiterated and trained on the product that we introduced in the latter half of last year and had a very strong, positive reaction to the training that we did and the work that we did in that regard. So I anticipate that we'll see even more significant results coming relative to that particular.

但讓我回答一下你關於會議和大會的具體問題。 會議非常積極。 我們介紹了，或者我想說介紹了——我們重申了去年下半年推出的產品並進行了培訓，並對我們所做的培訓和我們在這方面所做的工作產生了非常強烈、積極的反應看待。 因此，我預計我們會看到與此相關的更重要的結果。

It's a product that's, again, endowment oriented and endowment based, but geared toward the education market. And there's still a lot of excitement and anticipation within the marketing forces, or at least the leadership, that believes that we're going to see a fairly strong uptick in that market or in that particular product sale as we go on into 2012. So I would expect that that's going to be one of the positives that came out of that particular agent meeting.

這是一款以捐贈為導向、以捐贈為基礎的產品，但面向的是教育市場。 行銷力量，或至少領導層，仍然充滿興奮和期待，他們相信，隨著 2012 年的到來，我們將看到該市場或特定產品的銷售出現相當強勁的增長。會議帶來的正面影響之一。

The meeting was well received. It was not anything that was particularly elaborate, but it was very much enjoyed by all the participants. The energy and the excitement and the enthusiasm relative to the Company and the future of -- at least these folks. Again, you've got to realize you're dealing with the top-producing folks out of the marketplace, but they're all very pleased and very happy with how the sales meeting and the awards banquet and all was conducted.

會議受到熱烈歡迎。 這並不是什麼特別複雜的事情，但所有參與者都非常喜歡。 與公司和未來相關的活力、興奮和熱情——至少是這些人。 再說一次，你必須意識到你正在與市場上最優秀的人打交道，但他們都對銷售會議和頒獎宴會以及所有的進行方式感到非常滿意。

So each year you always have different challenges when you go into those, because sometimes you end up with some negatives or some takeaways that you come back thinking you've got things to work on and things you need to do. Out of this one, we really didn't come back with a lot of -- with, really, a bunch of anything that we needed to do different than what we've been doing. We just need to stay focused and working on what we're continuing down the path we're on.

因此，每年當你進入這些領域時，你總是會遇到不同的挑戰，因為有時你最終會得到一些負面的東西或一些收穫，而你回來後會認為你還有很多事情要做，你需要做一些事情。 在這次中，我們確實沒有帶來很多——實際上，一堆我們需要做的與我們一直在做的不同的事情。 我們只需要保持專注並繼續沿著我們所走的道路努力。

So I would tell you that it was a fairly successful and uneventful meeting.

所以我可以告訴你，這是一次相當成功且平安的會議。

Okay, that's good. Sticking with the international, obviously, there's been some news out of Argentina and Bolivia in particular about nationalization of some petroleum companies and oil and gas. Do these takeovers have any influence on the local populations buying the products down there in Latin America or the agents selling your products? Is it a positive impact, negative impact, neutral, no effect?

好吧，那很好。 顯然，與國際接軌的是，阿根廷和玻利維亞傳出了一些消息，特別是有關一些石油公司以及石油和天然氣的國有化的消息。 這些收購對在拉丁美洲購買產品的當地人或銷售你們產品的代理商有任何影響嗎？ 是正面影響、負面影響、中性還是無影響？

Well, again, any time you have instability within the country -- and these, I don't know that these particular events are going to rise to a level that they're going to be noticeable within our production arenas. But sometimes, for me to sit here, Ed, and try to predict what one of those uprisings or one of those localized disturbances is going to create is difficult, because I'm not a particularly good, I don't have a good crystal ball, I guess is what I'm trying to say.

好吧，再說一遍，每當國內出現不穩定的情況時，我不知道這些特定事件是否會上升到在我們的生產領域引人注目的水平。 但有時，對我來說，坐在這裡，試圖預測其中一場起義或一場局部騷亂將會造成什麼是很困難的，因為我不是一個特別優秀的人，我沒有一個好的水晶球，我想這就是我想說的。

What I would tell you is as I led into the call today, it is not uncommon for instability within those countries, whether it be political or economic or otherwise, to create a greater, more intense interest in utilizing the safe haven of the US for protection of assets and movement of funds out of those countries. So it would not be surprising to us to see those events create something, but I wouldn't begin to try to suggest that they're likely to. It's just, it's typical Latin American economies and environments, and they are a little more eventful, I guess I should say, than some of what we typically see here in the US.

我要告訴你們的是，正如我今天主持的電話會議一樣，這些國家內部的不穩定現象並不少見，無論是政治、經濟還是其他方面，這都導致人們對利用美國的避風港產生更大、更強烈的興趣。 因此，看到這些事件創造出一些東西，我們並不感到驚訝，但我不會開始嘗試暗示它們可能會創造一些東西。 只是，這是典型的拉丁美洲經濟和環境，我想我應該說，它們比我們在美國通常看到的一些情況要多一些。

But again, the world is a different stage today than it has been. And as you can see how dramatic the European marketplace is having upon us as a nation, the US nation and the markets here in the US, to me it's been far more dramatic than I thought justified and warranted, although I certainly understand the severity of the crisis that they're dealing with. And again, not altogether different than the one we're dealing with here in the US ourselves.

但今天的世界又是一個與以往不同的階段。 正如你所看到的，歐洲市場對我們這個國家、美國和美國市場產生了多麼巨大的影響，對我來說，這比我認為合理和合理的要戲劇性得多，儘管我當然理解問題的嚴重性他們正在應對的危機。 再說一遍，這與我們在美國遇到的情況並沒有完全不同。

Yes, it's just that we've had these nationalizations before. And I was wondering, on a historical perspective, if there had been any kind of uptick in sales at that time. I think it's probably kind of hard to --

是的，只是我們以前有過這些國有化。 我想知道，從歷史的角度來看，當時的銷售額是否有任何成長。 我認為這可能有點困難——

Not to overstep you there, but it's not something that we really try to maintain statistics or metrics relative to a particular economic event. That's just not something we do, so it's probably, even if it was occurring, it's not something we'd necessarily have tracked or be able to speak to with any particular relevance or detail.

並不是要超越你，但這並不是我們真正試圖維護與特定經濟事件相關的統計數據或指標的事情。 這不是我們做的事情，所以即使它發生了，我們也不一定會追蹤或能夠以任何特定的相關性或細節來談論它。

Fair enough. Transitioning over to the Home Service segment, you noted that you had the $500,000 IBNR reserve development. Could you talk about that a little bit? I think, from the 10-Q, it looked like it was in the life insurance business. But maybe just to talk about what drove it and whether or not this is a trend or if it's just a one-time kind of an item.

很公平。 過渡到家庭服務部門，您注意到您擁有 500,000 美元的 IBNR 儲備開發。 你能談談這個嗎？ 我認為，從 10-Q 來看，它看起來像是在人壽保險業務中。 但也許只是談談是什麼推動了它，以及這是否是一種趨勢，或者它是否只是一次性的項目。

Sure, I'll let Kay speak to that, because she did that with the Audit Committee yesterday very eloquently. So I'll let her do it with you today.

當然，我會讓凱談談這一點，因為她昨天在審計委員會中非常雄辯地做到了這一點。 所以我今天就讓她和你一起做。

Yes, Ed, we have, obviously, a claims liability calculation that we do for the incurred but not reported. We did see, about two years ago, a change in the reporting of the claims. We actually used claim triangles to develop that estimate of our liability. The actuaries performed that calculation for us.

是的，艾德，顯然，我們對已發生但未報告的索賠責任進行了計算。 大約兩年前，我們確實看到了索賠報告的變化。 我們實際上使用索賠三角形來估算我們的責任。 精算師為我們進行了計算。

And so we've really been working out of that reportable change that occurred two years ago. And so that's what you're seeing come through the claims triangle metric and get released. And we don't anticipate that we'll have an adjustment for that going forward. We think it's completely worked its way through the claims triangle lag. And we're using about a 21-month history of claims experience, and so we feel like that this blip you're seeing in this release is going to be it for getting that particular issue out of the claims triangle calculation.

因此，我們確實一直在努力解決兩年前發生的可報告的變化。 這就是您透過索賠三角指標看到的並被釋放的內容。 我們預計未來不會對此進行調整。 我們認為它已經完全克服了索賠三角滯後。 我們正在使用大約 21 個月的索賠經驗歷史記錄，因此我們認為您在此版本中看到的這一點將是為了將特定問題從索賠三角計算中剔除。

Okay. One more coming on the US life business, or a question, rather. What did you see in mortality in this quarter? Was it in line with historical trends? Any uptick at all? And the reason I'm asking is that a lot of your much larger US life insurers noted a pretty meaningful uptick or increase in mortality this quarter.

好的。 美國人壽業務即將迎來另一個問題，或者更確切地說，是一個問題。 您在本季的死亡率方面看到了什麼？ 符合歷史趨勢嗎？ 到底有沒有上漲？ 我問的原因是，許多規模更大的美國人壽保險公司都注意到本季死亡率出現了相當大的上升或增加。

No, ours was absolutely flat. We did not see any change in our mortality experience.

不，我們的絕對是平的。 我們沒有看到死亡經歷有任何變化。

That's interesting. Okay. Let's shift over to investments, and then I'll let it go at that. The effective yield was down to 3.76%, you noted. It's down 16 bps or so on a sequential basis. Could you quantify the impact that the call activity had on the yield in terms of bps, and then perhaps the dollar amount of call activity that happened in the first quarter? And then kind of the last angle on this is what do you have for expectations for called activity going forward in 2012?

那很有意思。 好的。 讓我們轉向投資，然後我就不談這個了。 您指出，有效收益率降至 3.76%。 季減 16 個基點左右。 您能否量化買權活動對殖利率的影響（以基點為單位），然後量化第一季發生的買權活動的美元金額？ 最後一個角度是，您對 2012 年所謂的活動有何預期？

Yes, Ed, I really can't quantify that and the decrease in the bps for you. But we did see that we have a larger amount of cash holdings that are waiting to be invested that we did note in our results. And that really is driving the calculation of that annualized yield. We are seeing the average asset increase, but the investment income stay at the same level. So it's really driving the calculation itself. And so what you're seeing for the quarter is probably going to smooth out as we get more of a real year reflected in that calculation. But that's part of what we're seeing.

是的，Ed，我真的無法為您量化這一點以及 bps 的下降。 但我們確實看到，我們有大量現金持有等待投資，我們在業績中確實注意到了這一點。 這確實推動了年化報酬率的計算。 我們看到平均資產增加，但投資收益保持在同一水平。 所以它確實推動了計算本身。 因此，隨著我們在計算中得到更多反映的實際年份，您所看到的本季的情況可能會變得平滑。 但這是我們所看到的一部分。

And I mean, if you look at the cash flow in the Q, you can actually see the calls that we did experience. We had about $70 million of calls relating to available-for-sale security and $22 million for the held-to-maturity portfolio. Those comparable numbers in the prior year was $8 million and $19 million. So we did see a pickup in calls, which is what is driving that cash balance increase in the quarter. But as that gets invested in, I anticipate that that yield calculation will pick back up a little bit.

我的意思是，如果你看看 Q 中的現金流，你實際上可以看到我們確實經歷過的電話。我們收到了大約 7,000 萬美元的與可供出售證券相關的看漲期權，以及 2,200 萬美元與持有至到期投資組合相關的看漲期權。 上一年度的可比較數字分別為 800 萬美元和 1,900 萬美元。 因此，我們確實看到電話數量增加，這是推動本季現金餘額增加的原因。 但隨著投資的增加，我預計收益率計算將會回升。

But we do think, as Rick indicated, we're seeing that bottom out just below 4%.

但我們確實認為，正如 Rick 指出的那樣，我們看到這一數字已觸底，略低於 4%。

Yes, you're not alone in the call activity, but any idea of how much more could be called this year, or is it kind of working its way out now?

是的，您並不是唯一一個參與電話活動的人，但您知道今年還可以打電話多少嗎？

Well, Ed, we continue to utilize callable-type instruments, so it is something that we expect to have continue through our whole experience here. I don't know. You would think that when it gets to a 1% rate that you wouldn't get any calls, but some of those things, we've been surprised by some of the calls. And I'm not sure I understand or appreciate fully why one that's to 1% or 1.5% will get called, and a 2% or a 3% will be left laying, other than it's just somebody's speculation about what the future's going to do.

嗯，Ed，我們繼續使用可呼叫類型的工具，因此我們希望在我們的整個體驗中繼續使用這種工具。 我不知道。 您可能會認為，當利率達到 1% 時，您不會接到任何電話，但其中一些電話，我們對其中一些電話感到驚訝。 我不確定我是否完全理解或理解為什麼 1% 或 1.5% 的人會被跟注，而 2% 或 3% 的人會被留下，這只是某人對未來會發生什麼的猜測。

Again, we're happy to have the churning that's going on because it's giving us the opportunity to shorten durations, as a general rule. And so to us, we believe that it actually plays well for the future and what's coming, even though that future may be a more lengthy period of time than any of us would care to have.

同樣，我們很高興看到正在發生的變化，因為作為一般規則，它使我們有機會縮短持續時間。 因此，對我們來說，我們相信它實際上對未來和即將發生的事情有很好的作用，儘管未來可能比我們任何人都願意擁有的時間更長。

So are you actually getting higher yields on new money from the called bonds than what's rolling off?

那麼，從所謂的債券中獲得的新資金的收益率實際上是否比滾動債券的收益率更高？

In some cases we are, yes.

在某些情況下，是的。

Wow.

哇。

So it's really, it's an interesting dynamic. Because of the extent of our callable portfolio, we've had a wide variety of instruments in all different shapes, sizes, and structures in terms of deals. And we did that intentionally, because we didn't want all one flavor. So we ended up with a lot of things concentrated out at a 15-year point in time, but with the calls and the churning and the reinvestment opportunities that we get in the shorter maturities over the last year, we're actually seeing an overall improvement in the quality of the portfolio from a potential yield, future yield perspective, and that's what we're excited about.

所以這確實是一個有趣的動態。 由於我們可贖回投資組合的範圍，我們擁有各種不同形狀、規模和交易結構的工具。 我們是故意這樣做的，因為我們不想只有一種口味。 因此，我們最終將很多事情集中在 15 年的時間點上，但隨著過去一年我們在較短期限內獲得的電話、攪拌和再投資機會，我們實際上看到了整體從潛在收益率、未來收益率的角度來看，投資組合品質得到改善，這就是我們感到興奮的地方。

Okay, great. Thanks.

好的，太好了。 謝謝。

Thank you. (Operator Instructions.) And there appear to be no further questions at this time.

謝謝。 （操作員說明。） 目前似乎沒有進一步的問題。

Randy, thank you very much. We appreciate it. Appreciate everyone on the call today. Thank you for joining us. We look forward to visiting with you again next quarter.

蘭迪，非常感謝你。 我們很感激。 感謝今天通話中的每個人。 感謝您加入我們。 我們期待下個季度再次拜訪您。

This concludes today's teleconference. We thank you for your participation. You may disconnect your lines at this time, and have a great day.

今天的電話會議到此結束。 我們感謝您的參與。 此時您可以斷開線路，祝您有個愉快的一天。